the measurement and trend of inequality comment in a recent article in this review morton paglin proposes a measure of concentration which he claims will correct the gini ratio for overstatement in populations where each individual may be expected to vary his income or wealth over his life cycle the paglin measure suggests that the gini ratio overstates income concentration in the united states by a third and does not reveal a 23 percent decline in concentration which has occurred between 1947 and 1972 these results are based on an improper decomposition of the gini ratio in this note i decompose the gini ratio to derive the paglin measure it is shown to correct for neither demographic nor life cycle income effects and to understate intracohort income or wealth inequality if properly normalized the paglin measure shows that the gini overstates u s income concentration by 7 percent or less and indicates a decline in u s interfamily income concentration of less than 12 percent four percentage points of this decline are the result of demographic change while less than 7 points comparable to the 5 percent decline of the gini are the result of decreased income concentration within cohorts of family heads decomposition further reveals major changes in the division of income among cohorts and in concentration of income within cohorts these changes compensate each other in the paglin measure the use of which as a measure of income or wealth concentration is not recommended the gini concentration ratio

labour supply effects of unemployment insurance benefits data from the 1976 wave of the panel study of income dynamics are employed to study the effect of unemployment insurance ui benefits on weeks worked ols regressions to model labour supply behaviour are estimated for both recipients and nonrecipients of ui benefits we find some inteesting differences between the labour supply behaviour of ui recipients and nonrecipients

bounding the labor supply responses to a randomized welfare experiment a revealed preference approach we study the impact of connecticut s jobs first jf welfare reform experiment on the labor supply decisions of a sample of welfare applicants and recipients although the experiment identies the distribution of choices made in the absence and presence of reform each woman s counterfactual choice is unknown we show that economic theory restricts the set of counterfactual choices compatible with each woman s actual choice we use these restrictions to develop bounds on the frequency of intensive and extensive margin responses to reform our results indicate that the jf experiment led some women to work and others to reduce their earnings

the information content of security prices a second look abstract beaver lambert and morse 1980 employ a regression of percentage change in prices on percentage change in earnings in which data are grouped by the dependent variable reverse regression offers a more intuitive and direct way to assess the information content of security prices the objective of beaver et al while grouping is asymptotically equivalent reverse regression is a more efficient way of examining the incremental explanatory power of lagged values of percentage change in price with respect to accounting earnings

making the case for grid connected photovoltaics in brazil abstract in the developed world grid connected photovoltaics pvs are the fastest growing segment of the energy market from 1999 to 2009 this industry had a 42 compound annual growth rate from 2009 to 2013 it is expected to grow to 45 and in 2013 the achievement of grid parity when the cost of solar electricity becomes competitive with conventional retail including taxes and charges grid supplied electricity is expected in many places worldwide grid connected pv is usually perceived as an energy technology for developed countries whereas isolated stand alone pv is considered as more suited for applications in developing nations where so many individuals still lack access to electricity this rationale is based on the still high costs of pv when compared with conventional electricity we make the case for grid connected pv generation in brazil showing that with the declining costs of pv and the rising prices of conventional electricity urban populations in brazil will also enjoy grid parity in the present decade we argue that governments in developing nations should act promptly and establish the mandates and necessary conditions for their energy industry to accumulate experience in grid connected pv and make the most of this benign technology in the near future

assessing the short term revenue impacts of residential pv systems on electricity customers retailers and network service providers abstract falling costs and supportive government policies have seen remarkable growth in residential photovoltaic systems in jurisdictions around the world while there have been detailed studies of the financial attractiveness of pv for home owners under different policy and retail market arrangements there has been less consideration of the impacts of such systems on some other key industry participants in this paper we undertake an investigation of the annual short term revenue impacts of pv systems for those households installing them for their electricity retailers and network service providers nsps and for all electricity customers more in general in the australian state of nsw we use actual half hourly pv generation and electricity consumption for 80 households in sydney to estimate the real world impacts of a range of former current and possible future pv policy and retail tariff arrangements including gross and net feed in tariffs fit we found that the short term revenue impacts differ significantly for different commercial arrangements and are highly variable and largely driven by the pv performance and its match with household consumption patterns results highlight that current net metering policies in australia with low net fit rates may provide only moderate revenue incentives to households yet quite adverse revenue impacts on nsps and retailers depending on the level of pv export while nsp short term revenue losses will likely involve increasing electricity tariffs in the longer term losses for retailers may add risks to the profitability of household customers with pv the challenge for policy makers is to facilitate socially valuable pv deployment whilst appropriately managing the impacts on all key electricity industry stakeholders

means testing versus universal provision in poverty alleviation programs this paper contrasts the use of means tested and universal schemes in the alleviation of poverty using a class of poverty measures the authors illustrate the trade off from the fact that means testing is costly to both the government and the claimant while universal provision entails a leakage to the nonpoor the paper provides numerical as well as analytical results copyright 1990 by the london school of economics and political science

the information content of current cost income relative to dividends and historical cost income in september 1979 the financial accounting standards board fasb issued statement no 33 financial reporting and changing prices one of the items required by this statement is current cost income from continuing operations ccifco this item is considered by the fasb to be useful in assessing distributable income that is the amount of cash that may be distributed without reducing the operating capability of an enterprise sfas no 33 para 124 in essence a current cost income measure is claimed to remove the illusory inflation profit component and as such is potentially a better indicator of dividend paying ability evidence also exists that current dividends have information content which is consistent with the notion that they provide information on future income and dividends see for example pettit 1972 1976 griffin 1976 and aharony and swary 1980 however dividends are somewhat discretionary in which case ccifco may provide a basis for determining which dividend signals have implications for firm value and which do not since the accounting profession is currently in the process of assessing the desirability of continued disclosure of current cost information it

precautionary savings a panel study theoretical literature shows that income uncertainty boosts saving yet empirical work is incomplete i test for the precautionary motive for saving using panel data knowing this motive s size is important for gauging the responsiveness of saving to government programs that reduce uncertainty and for comparison to other motives such as bequests most empirical studies of precautionary saving use either aggregate time series or cross sectional data which cannot capture the effects of individual income uncertainty i derive measures of total permanent and transitory income uncertainty from panel data the national longitudinal survey and find a strong precautionary motive a doubling of uncertainty increases the ratio of wealth to permanent income by 29

residential energy efficiency and distributed generation natural partners or competition abstract residential energy efficiency and distributed generation seem to be natural partners in our journey towards a more sustainable energy future a growing range of energy efficient consumer technologies and extraordinary declines in photovoltaics system prices has seen household electricity demand fall whilst a growing proportion of the remaining load is provided by household self generation australia is a particularly interesting example of these developments with around 15 of households now possessing a pv system while per capita household demand has also fallen markedly however existing retail electricity tariffs and regulatory arrangements can create mixed incentives for households contemplating both pv and energy efficiency options and for their network service providers this is certainly the case in australia with net metering arrangements that value self consumption of pv far more than pv exports to the grid there are also complex benefits for the electricity network created by these household energy resources that can be significant in this paper we use real household load and pv data from sydney households to model the potential implications of existing electricity tariff arrangements on the financial attractiveness of pv and energy efficiency we model these options separately and in combination for both households implementing these options and their network service providers our results highlight how inappropriate tariffs may well adversely impact on the value that the combination of energy efficiency and pv offers not only to households but also to their network service providers and suggest ways that such impacts might be ameliorated by acknowledging the benefits that these resources can offer to the electricity network

on the quantification of the network capacity deferral value of distributed generation this paper presents an approach to the quantification of the distribution network capacity deferral value of distributed generation dg besides different technical benefits such as reliability and power quality improvement there are a number of economic benefits related to dg the most important of which being the end user electricity bill reduction capability however since the onset of the implementation of these technologies the potential of dg to defer investments on distribution wires and transformers was soon realized to the point that non wire solutions are now considered as an alternative to network upgrades in this work a first approximation to the capacity deferral benefits brought about by dg is obtained such approach can be the starting point towards the development of a framework of credits to the owners of dg that fully and fairly recognize the deferral benefits provided to the utility the financial performance of investments on these important technologies can be then improved thus broadening dg as a viable market alternative for customers and utilities

a measure of horizontal inequity politicians academicians and the general public alike have perceived that the status quo tax and transfer legislation creates inequities among living units tax laws create numerous situations in which living units with seemingly equal abilities to pay are taxed quite different amounts state by state differences in welfare eligibility rules benefit schedules and administrative procedures the general unavailability of cash welfare to childless nonaged healthy couples and single individuals and other features of transfer programs similarly provide vastly different levels of income support to units with equal needs advocates of major tax and welfare reform have marshalled such evidence into a central argument in favor of their proposals while there is wide agreement that the process of redistributing incomes abounds with inequities there have been few attempts to quantify their extent 2 this paper develops a measure of horizontal inequity and illustrates its use section ii discusses the concept of horizontal equity then builds upon familiar lorenz curve gini coefficient analysis to derive the inequity index the third part considers some problems of implementing the measure and illustrates it section iv provides a short conclusion

how income transfer programs affect work savings and the income distribution a critical review for helpful comments on earlier drafts we thank without implicating moses abramovitz yves balcer john bishop alan blinder richard burkhauser michael darby irwin garfinkel alan gustman daniel hamermesh martin holmer george jakubson robert lampman paul menchik robert moffitt michael murray joseph quinn timothy smeeding eugene smolensky barbara wolfe and two anonymous referees

permanent versus transitory components of annual earnings and estimation error in earnings response coefficients abstract previous research has generally estimated unexpected earnings as the change relative to the previous year assuming that shocks to annual earnings are purely permanent in the presence of transitory components of annual earnings we predict that using earnings changes as a proxy for unexpected earnings causes earnings response coefficients to be understated and the estimation error to be negatively cross sectionally correlated with persistence the negative correlation causes the association between earnings response coefficients and persistence to be overstated we use the ima 1 1 model to capture transitory components of annual earnings and obtain results that are consistent with our predictions

labor supply response to welfare programs a dynamic analysis previous static analyses of the work disincentive effects of welfare programs are extended to a dynamic context using a sample of continuous longitudinal labor market histories estimates are derived for welfare nonwelfare differences in labor market flows among the states of employment unemployment and nonparticipation the estimates are used to identify the main sources of the lower employment and labor force participation rates and higher unemployment rate of welfare recipients the findings indicate that welfare programs have substantial effects on virtually every labor market transition examined but that the primary source of the static work disincentive effect is slower entry into employment

does unemployment compensation affect unemployment duration abstract we use a flexible hazard rate model with unrestricted spell duration and calendar timeeffects to analyse a dataset including all norwegian unemployment spells during the1990 s the dataset provides a unique access to conditionally independent variation inunemployment compensation we find that a marginal increase in compensation re duces the escape rate from unemployment significantly irrespective of business cycleconditions and spell duration the escape rate rises sharply in the months just prior tobenefit exhaustion while men are more responsive than women with respect to mar ginal changes in compensation women are most responsive with respect to benefitexhaustion keywords unemployment spells business cycles unemployment compensation non parametric duration analysis jel classification c41 j64 the ragnar frisch centre for economic research oslo we wish to thank the re search council of norway for financial support and christian brinck harald goldstein costas meghir espen moen steinar strom rolf aaberge and three anonomyous referees for helpful comments cor respondence to knut roed the ragnar frisch centre for economic research gaustadalleen 21 0349oslo norway e mail knut roed frisch uio no

accounting for changing prices the value relevance of historical cost price level and replacement cost accounting in mexico this paper investigates the value relevance of historical cost price level and replacement cost accounting using a sample of mexican firms from 1989 to 1995 it contributes to prior research by distinguishing between two distinct aspects of changing prices 1 the change in the general price level and 2 the change in the value of specific non monetary assets i select mexico to examine because it is unique in requiring and disclosing separately price level and replacement cost adjustments a sample of mexican firms also addresses a key reason cited for mixed results in previous assessments of the usefulness of price level and replacement cost accounting using united states data the effects of inflation are too weak to detect high rates of inflation in mexico ranging between 7 and 52 during the sample period mitigate that potential problem results indicate that replacement cost adjustments are relatively and incrementally relevant beyond historical cost and price level measures while price level adjustments are incrementally value relevant beyond historical measures

measuring energy use and co2 emission performances for apec economies abstract this study proposes environmental dea based models to measure energy use efficiency co2 emissions efficiency and an environmental economic efficiency eee for the asia pacific economic cooperation apec economies for the period of 2006 2010 in our models population and total primary energy consumption are the two inputs while gdp and co2 emissions represent the desirable and undesirable outputs respectively empirical results from 20 apec economies showed that australia brunei hong kong and singapore were identified as efficient countries for five consecutive years from 2006 to 2010 in terms of energy use efficiency as for co2 emission efficiency brunei hong kong and singapore were identified as efficient countries for the five consecutive years from 2006 to 2010 as far as eee is concerned most countries in apec exhibited higher economic efficiency than environmental efficiency moreover both energy use efficiency and co2 emission efficiency were found to be significantly related to the eee value p

evidence on income measurement properties of asr no 190 and sfas no 33 data a number of studies have tested the association between security returns or levels of market value and current cost accounting data as reported under sec accounting series release no 190 asr 190 and statement of financial accounting standards no 33 sfas 33 for example beaver griffin and landsman 1982 henceforth bgl beaver and landsman 1983 henceforth bl and olsen 1985 found no association while bublitz frecka and mckeown 1985 henceforth bfm and murdoch 1986 found a weak association 1 in this paper we estimate cross section regressions of security returns on historical cost net income and holding gains as was done previously but with several extensions first we define our variables in terms of realizations of returns income and holding gains rather than in terms of unexpected changes thus we

econometric properties of alternative security return methods in recent years security price research has experienced a proliferation of research designs as a result there is a lack of interstudy comparability which is aggravated by the absence of a formal analysis of the properties of the alternative designs under various conditions the purpose here is to examine one important aspect of research design the choice of the security return measure in a simple but well defined setting of limited parameter uncertainty the analysis leads to the following results 1 with respect to raw returns versus residual returns it explicitly offers three potential rationales for residual returns as such the analysis provides a formal statement of the reasons for residual analyses to supplement the intuitive but less precise statements in the early literature 2 with respect to residual return versus difference in returns methods the analysis indicates the conditions under which a the residual approach dominates the difference in returns approach as judged by the statistical criteria examined b the converse holds and c the two methods possess the same econometric properties 3 the relative properties described in 2 are derived for a general model of nonzero covariation among returns and for two important special cases the zero beta model and the industry effects model

firm size and the information content of prices with respect to earnings abstract beaver lambert and morse 1980 suggest that prices may be useful in forecasting future earnings we explore the information content of prices with respect to earnings by focusing on firm size and its relation to the predictive accuracy of price based earnings forecasts firm size proxies for the amount of information and for the number of traders and professional analysts processing the available information about an enterprise our empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis that price based earnings will outperform univariate time series forecasts by a greater margin for larger firms than for smaller firms

on cross sectional analysis in accounting research abstract this paper examines cross sectional analysis procedures common to many market based accounting research papers both the economic and econometric properties of levels and returns studies are discussed topics covered include the relations between the accounting studies and cash flow valuation models the role of expectations of accounting variables deflators spurious inference risk adjustment and its relation to growth size and leverage residual dependence dependence among explanatory variables and the effect of scale differences across firms major conclusions are that market value is the correct deflator in returns studies and that levels and returns studies are economically but not econometrically equivalent

female labor supply with a discontinuous nonconvex budget constraint incorporation of a part time full time wage differential this paper incorporates the well documented part time full time wage differential into an empirical labor supply model with both a heterogeneity and a random error term and estimates that model fo

the relevance of the value relevance literature for financial accounting standard setting another view this paper explains that value relevance research assesses how well accounting amounts reflect information used by equity investors and provides insights into questions of interest to standard setters a primary focus of financial statements is equity investment other uses of financial statement information such as contracting do not diminish the importance of value relevance research value relevance questions can be addressed using extant valuation models value relevance studies address econometric issues that otherwise could limit inferences and can accommodate and be used to study the implications of accounting conservatism r 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classification m41 m44 g12

the private and public economics of renewable electricity generation generating electricity from renewable sources is more expensive than conventional approaches but reduces pollution externalities analyzing the tradeoff is much more challenging than often presumed because the value of electricity is extremely dependent on the time and location at which it is produced which is not very controllable with some renewables such as wind and solar likewise the pollution benefits from renewable generation depend on what type of generation it displaces which also depends on time and location without incorporating these factors cost benefit analyses of alternatives are likely to be misleading other common arguments for subsidizing renewable power green jobs energy security and driving down fossil energy prices are unlikely to substantially alter the analysis the role of intellectual property spillovers is a strong argument for subsidizing energy science research but less persuasive as an enhancement to the value of installing current renewable energy technologies

an evaluation of the installation of solar photovoltaic in residential houses in malaysia past present and future abstract this paper examines solar energy development in malaysia particularly in relation to the installation of solar photovoltaic pv in residential houses it analyzes the past activities related to solar energy in malaysia in terms of research and developments r ds the implementations used as well as the national policies for the past 20 years which have pushed the installation of pv in the country the feed in tariff fit scheme is discussed showing comparative cost benefit analysis between the pv installation in houses in the united kingdom uk and malaysia and with other investment schemes available in malaysia to investigate the awareness of renewable energy policies and incentives a preliminary survey of the public opinion in malaysia has been carried out and an evaluation of public willingness to invest in the fit scheme by installing the pv on their houses is presented the cost benefit analysis shows that the proposed fit programme is capable of generating good return on investment as compared to the one in the uk but the return is lower than other investment tools the survey suggests that most malaysians are unaware of the government s incentives and policies towards renewable energies and are not willing to invest in the fit scheme

design of incentive programs for accelerating penetration of energy efficient appliances abstract incentives are policy tools that sway purchase retail stocking and production decisions toward energy efficient products incentives complement mandatory standards and labeling policies by accelerating market penetration of products that are more energy efficient than required by existing standards and by preparing the market for more stringent future mandatory requirements incentives can be directed at different points in the appliance s supply chain one point may be more effective than another depending on the technology s maturity and market penetration this paper seeks to inform future policy and program design by categorizing the main elements of incentive programs from around the world we identify advantages and disadvantages of program designs through a qualitative overview of incentive programs worldwide we find that financial incentive programs have greater impact when they target highly efficient technologies with a small market share and that program designs depend on the market barriers addressed the target equipment and the local market context no program design is inherently superior to another the key to successful program design and implementation is a thorough understanding of the market and identification of the most important local obstacles to the penetration of energy efficient technologies

polices for increasing energy efficiency thirty years of experience in oecd countries energy efficiency improvement was an important phenomenon in the global energy balance over the past 30 years without energy efficiency improvements the oecd nations would have used approximately 49 more energy than was actually consumed as of 1998 this paper first reviews energy intensity trends for the major oecd nations since 1973 considering how much of the overall reduction in e gdp was due to energy efficiency improvement and how much was due to structural change the bulk of the paper examines the energy efficiency policies and programs adopted in japan united states and western europe commenting on their effectiveness and energy savings impacts where possible the paper also reviews the energy efficiency policies and programs adopted in california this experience shows that well designed policies can result in substantial energy savings as demonstrated in the united states where nine specific policies and programs reduced primary energy use in 2002 by approximately 11 substantial energy savings also occurred in japan some european countries and in the electricity sector in california

the economic effect of electricity net metering with solar pv consequences for network cost recovery cross subsidies and policy objectives abstract net metering is commonly known as a practice by which owners of distributed generation dg units may offset their electricity consumption from the grid with local generation the increasing number of prosumers consumers that both produce and consume electricity with solar photovoltaic pv generation combined with net metering results in reduced incomes for many network utilities worldwide consequently this pushes utilities to increase charges per kw h in order to recover costs for non pv owners this could result into inequality issues due to the fact that also non pv owners have to pay higher chargers for their electricity consumed to make up for netted costs of pv owners in order to provide insight in those inequality issues caused by net metering this study presents the effects on cross subsidies cost recovery and policy objectives evolving from different applied netmetering and tariff designs for a residential consumer eventually this paper provides recommendations regarding tariffs and metering that will result in more explicit incentives for pv instead of the current implicit incentives which are present to pv owners due to net metering

public transfers family socioeconomic traits and the job search behavior of the unemployed evidence from puerto rico abstract this paper explores the theoretical and empirical associations between the job search efforts of the unemployed and the socioeconomic characteristics of the family it takes as a point of reference that certain supply side phenomena may contribute to puerto rico s high open unemployment rate the statistical analyses carried out indicate that there does exist what can be labeled luxury unemployment in other words government provided transfer payments generate disincentive effects with respect to the job market behavior of the unemployed moreover the dependency status of the individual within the family group also leads to lower job search effort

profitability analysis of grid connected photovoltaic facilities for household electricity self sufficiency abstract spain exhibits a high level of energy dependence and has significant solar energy resources these two facts have given rise to the prominence that renewable energy particularly solar photovoltaic technology has enjoyed in recent years supported by a favorable regulatory framework currently the spanish government is providing new ways in energy policy to enhance and accelerate the development of low power photovoltaic generation facilities for self consumption by introducing energy policies for feed in payments of surplus electricity such facilities are an example of distributed electrical generation with important benefits for the environment and the rest of the electrical system because when properly managed they can help improve the system s stability and reduce overall losses by analyzing household demand and solar photovoltaic energy resources the profitability of such facilities is considered in this article taking into account the technical and economic impact of storage systems and proposing models for feed in payments of surplus electricity in an attempt to assess whether this method of electricity generation versus the method of conventionally supplied power from a grid at a regulated tariff can rival each other economically in terms of parity

replacement income duration of unemployment and the migration of unemployed prime age males the relationship between the interstate migration of unemployed males of prime working age i e 25 44 years of age the level of unemployment replacement income and the duration of unemployment spells is addressed through the use of a relatively untapped data source the us census s survey of income and program participation sipp the rich set of details that are provided in this database allows a more precise empirical analysis of the above relationships than has been possible with psid cps and other previously used databases by restricting the sample to a relatively homogeneous segment of the work force its is possible to isolate better the effects of unemployment replacement income and job search duration on the migration decision of unemployed workers without the confounding effects of the variety of demographic factors that previous studies have shown to influence labour force migration the results suggest that for unemployed prime working age males the probability of migration is negativel

should social security benefits be means tested social security retirement benefits distort the saving decisions of workers who are rational enough to save for their future since the implicit rate of return in an unfunded social security program is less than the marginal product of capital the resulting decline in saving causes a welfare loss the present paper examines the conditions under which the welfare loss could be reduced by replacing the current universal social security program with a means tested program that pays benefits only to those individuals with little or no other retirement income or assets every society must solve the problem of supporting those individuals who become too old to work but have not made adequate provision for their own old age by saving when they were young at the present time the major industrial countries of the world have responded to this problem by creating social security programs that tax the working population and use the proceeds to provide a universal benefit to all retirees regardless of their financial condition this universal provision of social security benefits distorts the saving decisions of those workers who are rational enough to plan for the future since the implicit rate of return that taxpayers get on their this research is part of the nber study of the government budget and the private economy a more complete version of this paper with some numerical calculations is available as nber working paper no 1775 feldstein 1985b i am grateful to gilbert metcalf for assistance with the calculations presented in this paper and for helpful discussions for a discussion of the effect of promised retirement benefits on the savings of employees see feldstein 1974 1982 barro 1974 1978 has discussed an interesting

quantifying the financial impacts of net metered pv on utilities and ratepayers abstract deployment of customer sited photovoltaics pv in the united states has expanded rapidly in recent years driven by falling pv system prices the advent of customer financing options and various forms of policy support at the federal state and local levels with the success of these efforts heated debates have surfaced in a number of u s states about the impacts of customer sited pv on utility shareholders and ratepayers we performed a scoping analysis using a financial model to quantify the financial impacts of customer sited pv on utility shareholders and ratepayers and to assess the magnitude of these impacts under alternative utility conditions we find that customer sited pv generally reduces utility collected revenues greater than reductions in costs leading to a revenue erosion effect and lost future earnings opportunities we also find that average retail rates increase as utility costs are spread over a relatively smaller sales base we analyze these results under various assumptions about utility operating and regulatory environments and find that these impacts can vary greatly depending upon the specific circumstances of the utility based on this analysis we highlight potential implications for policymakers and identify key issues warranting further analysis

an approach to statistical inference in cross sectional models with security abnormal returns as dependent variable several recent event studies test hypotheses about the association between event related abnormal security returns and firm characteristics using a three step procedure first forecast model parameters are estimated usually parameters of a market model second prediction errors or residuals are computed over an event period third prediction errors are regressed cross sectionally on firm characteristics hypothesized to influence the impact of the event on share values results of these regressions are used to draw inferences about the relation between abnormal returns and firm characteristics researchers who employ three step procedures acknowledge that crosssectional ols regressions lead to valid inferences if the disturbances are iid normal in cross section see for example leftwich 1981 p 23 and lustgarten 1982 p 138 while sufficient assumptions to draw valid inferences from ols regressions are clear these assumptions are violated if there is cross correlation and cross sectional heteroscedasticity in the firm return processes from which the prediction errors are estimated assumptions about the processes generating these prediction

are small scale grid connected photovoltaic systems a cost effective policy for lowering electricity bills and reducing carbon emissions a technical economic and carbon emission analysis this research discusses findings from technical simulations and economic models of 1kw p and 3kw p grid connected photovoltaic pv systems supplying a rural home electricity load in parallel with the electricity network in western australia wa the technical simulations are based on electricity billing consumption monitoring an energy audit data combined with 15min interval load and pv system performance for commercially available technologies and balance of system components using long term meteorological input data the economic modelling uses 2010 market prices for capital costs operational costs electricity tariffs subsidies and is based on discounted cash flow analyses which generate a final net present value npv for each system against network electricity costs in australian dollars aud over a 15 year investment horizon the results suggest that current market prices generate a negative npv a net private loss even with the current government subsidies which lead to higher home electricity costs than conventional network electricity use additionally the private costs of carbon emission mitigation aud tco 2 e 1 for the grid connected pv system simulations and models were around aud 600 700 tco 2 e 1 a particularly expensive option when compared to existing large scale renewable energy mitigation activities

comparative economic analysis of supporting policies for residential solar pv in the united states solar renewable energy credit srec potential numerous studies and market reports suggest that the solar photovoltaic markets rely heavily if not entirely upon governmental support policies at present unlike in other countries where these policies are enacted at a national level the 50 states in the us pursue different policies in an attempt to foster the growth of renewable energy and specifically solar photovoltaics this paper provides an economic and financial analysis of the us federal and state level policies in states with solar targeted policies that have solar renewable energy credits srec markets after putting a value on srecs this study further compares solar carve outs with other incentives including the federal tax credit net metering and state personal tax credits our findings show that srec markets can certainly be strong with new jersey delaware and massachusetts having the most potential despite their strong potential as effective renewable policies the lack of a guaranteed minimum and the uncertainty attached are major drawbacks of srec markets however the leveraging of this high value offers hope that the policies will indeed stimulate residential solar photovoltaic markets

the solar photovoltaic feed in tariff scheme in new south wales australia solar photovoltaic pv electricity systems are part of australia s energy supply matrix in the case of new south wales nsw the state government has had to deal with a complex policy problem in order to play its role in the federal small scale renewable energy scheme the nsw government initiated the 7 year solar bonus scheme in 2010 however in attempting to maximise community investment in small scale solar pv systems it relied on faulty financial modelling that applied a generous feed in tariff fit and underestimated the level of investor participation and installed capacity consequently the scheme has resulted in very high public costs that will require policy changes that bring investors and energy retailers into conflict and unpopular electricity retail price adjustments this paper uses a structured case and stakeholder analysis to critically analyse the fit policy while also highlighting important lessons for policymakers engaging in fit design

the dynamics of solar pv costs and prices as a challenge for technology forecasting an effective energy technology strategy has to balance between setting a stable long term framework for innovation while also responding to more immediate changes in technology cost and performance over the last decade rather than a steady progression along an established learning curve pv costs and prices have been volatile with increases or plateaus followed by rapid reductions the paper describes and considers the causes of recent changes in pv costs and prices at module and system level both international trends and more place specific contexts it finds that both module and system costs and price trends have reflected multiple overlapping forces established forecasting methods experience curves and engineering assessments have limited ability to capture key learning effects behind recent pv cost and price trends production scale effects industrial re organization and shakeouts international trade practices and national market dynamics these forces are likely to remain prominent aspect of technology learning effects in the foreseeable future and so are in need of improved more explicit representation in energy technology forecasting

labour supply impacts of effective welfare programme parameters a reanalysis we quantify the impact of effective welfare programme parameters on the labour supply of single female household heads the primary group of welfare recipients in the usa our panel of data is derived from the us census bureau s current population survey for the years 1979 to 1990 inclusive behavioural impacts from a range of economic variables are consistent in sign with predictions made by economic theory we find that effective welfare gurantee levels and the effective tax rate on earned income both significantly decrease labour supply the marginal effects of these welfare programme parameters are economically small a us 1000 increase in the expected welfare guarantee level reduces annual labour supply by about 36 hours a 10 percentage point increase in the effective tax rate on earned income reduces annual labour supply by about 7 5 hours

the incremental information content of replacement cost earnings abstract the study explores the incremental explanatory power of replacement cost earnings variables derived from asr 190 data with respect to explaining cross sectional differences in security returns as such the study is a natural extension of previous research including analyses of the effect of security returns of asr 190 data at the time of disclosure investigations of cross sectional relationships between security returns and historical cost earnings and studies of multiple signals the basic finding is that pre holding gain net income provides no incremental explanatory powerm given knowledge of historical cost earnings however the converse does not hold taken together the findings are consistent with the contention that pre holding gain net income is a garbled version of historical cost earnings the basic finding is robust under several extensions of the initial research design the research design incorporates a two stage approach which permits a determination of the incremental explanatory power of collinear variables the findings are in contrast to those of a previous study by easman et al 1979 the nature of the difference in research design inducing the difference is identified potential reasons for the difference in findings are provided

uncertain lifetime consumption and dissaving in retirement this paper asks whether the continued accumulation or mild dissaving observed among the retired can be explained by uncertain lifetime in the absence of annuities after an initial period influenced by borrowing constraints under constant relative risk aversion uncertain lifetime depresses consumption by a proportion increasing with age if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is small illustrative computations based on actual income and survival data show that plausible elasticities are sufficiently small to give this effect the reduction in consumption is large enough to explain much of the lack of decumulation by the elderly

expanding new york state s earned income tax credit programme the effect on work income and poverty given its favourable employment incentives and ability to target the working poor the earned income tax credit eitc has become the primary antipoverty programme at both the federal and state levels however when evaluating the effect of eitc programmes on income and poverty governments generally calculate the effect using simple accounting where the value of the state or federal eitc benefit is added to a person s income these calculations omit the behavioural incentives created by the existence of these programmes the corresponding effect on labour supply and hours worked and therefore the actual effect on income and poverty this article simulates the full effect of an expansion of the new york state eitc benefit on employment hours worked income poverty and programme expenditures these results are then compared to those omitting labour supply effects relative to estimates excluding labour supply effects the preferred behavioural results show that an expansion of the new york state eitc i

welfare employment and income evidence on the effects of benefit reductions from california in recent years there have been unprecedented changes in welfare the 1996 personal responsibility and work opportunity reconciliation act abolished afdc and created temporary assistance for needy families tanf a set of block grants that gave states nearly complete freedom in designing their welfare programs between march 1994 and march 2001 welfare caseloads fell 59 percent to 2 1 million families from 5 1 million these changes in welfare caseloads mirror changes in employment rates of single women which rose to 76 5 percent in 1998 1999 from 67 5 percent in 1989 1990 after a recession early in the decade the economy experienced the longest economic expansion in u s history beginning in march 1991 with gdp growing for 120 consecutive months the unemployment rate fell to 4 0 percent in 2000 its lowest level since 1969 with the strong economy state and federal budgets prospered the good fiscal climate and the funding and flexibility of tanf allowed many states to expand child care benefits health insurance and transportation services for low income families and to change welfare rules so that recipients could keep a greater share of earned income than was previously the case the overwhelming majority of pre tanf welfare waivers and current state tanf plans employ one or more of the following building blocks mandatory employment services earnings supplements and time limits on welfare receipt there is a considerable amount of emerging evidence that these changes along with the strong economy and expansion of the earned income tax credit eitc increased employment of low skilled families see e g dan bloom and charles michalopoulos 2001 jeffrey grogger 2001 hotz et al 2001 bruce meyer and dan t rosenbaum 2001 yet if history is any guide to the future state policymakers facing deteriorating fiscal climates will contemplate cutting welfare benefits this paper summarizes results from a larger paper hotz et al 2002 in which we analyze data from an experimental evaluation of welfare reform in california during the early part of the 1990 s starting in 1991 california experienced a severe economic downturn prompted by the very weak state economy and sharply rising welfare caseloads california implemented changes in its aid to families with dependent children afdc program that included among other changes a 15 percent reduction in the maximum benefits provided to families on aid we exploit these data to assess the impact of these changes on the employment labor market earnings and levels of disposable income for low income households because this experiment was run for almost six years we are also able to assess the long run effects of the benefit changes understanding how welfare reforms especially benefit reductions affect employment and financial resources available to poor households is important given the goal of work based welfare reforms to move these families toward economic self sufficiency

evidence on the joint and marginal information content of inflation adjusted accounting income numbers one of the major issues debated in the accounting literature over the past decade has been whether to recognize the effects of inflation or general price level changes in accounting reports previous studies addressing this question have provided evidence on the magnitudes and on the information content of alternative inflation accounting solutions those studies essentially adopted either of two approaches i they compared the degree of association between abnormal security returns and a inflation adjusted accounting income numbers and currently reported accounting income numbers respectively or ii they compared the degree of association between systematic risk of securities and the two sets of accounting numbers the objective of this paper is to provide further evidence on the information content of inflation adjusted accounting numbers by adopting an experimental method that enables the testing of both the joint and marginal information content of inflation adjusted and historical cost accounting numbers the results indicate support for the joint

valuation and accounting for inflation and foreign exchange inflation and foreign exchange raise new issues with respect to accounting representations of equity value for example inflation creates an earnings illusion as an artifact of the mismatching of expenses based on allocations of historical costs with current revenues in determining earnings this mismatching distorts mappings of aggregate earnings and book values into equity value such that value relevant information is lost in this article we consider the consequences of inflation and foreign exchange accounting policies including those contained in accounting standards on the value relevance of bottom line accounting numbers policies are identified that achieve efficient accounting in the sense that aggregate comprehensive earnings and book values are sufficient for an accounting representation of equity value the linear relations that emerge provide predictions on capitalization coefficients that help explain results of empirical inquiries as well our analysis provides a theoretical foundation for policies contained in accounting standards that contributes to the resolution of controversies such as that concerning foreign exchange accounting

returns on investments in energy saving technologies under energy price uncertainty in dutch greenhouse horticulture conventional net presentvalue calculations evaluating the profitabilityof investments in energy saving technologies indutch horticultural outlays predict a muchhigher rate of adoption of these technologiesthan is actually observed this paper tries toexplain this gap by applying a real optionsframework hurdle rates for investments in twotypes of energy saving technology are estimatedusing simulated future revenue streams givenuncertainty regarding energy prices and energytax policies hurdle rates found in this wayare on average about 1 76 times the hurdlerates that result from net present valuecalculations furthermore this paper tests thepredictive value of the theory by estimating alogit model this model relates the incidenceof having invested in an energy savingtechnology to the difference between the returnon investment and the hurdle rate thepredictive power turns out to be encouraging as the statistical tests indicate that higherhurdle rates tend to reduce rates of technologyadoption

electricity market design for facilitating the integration of wind energy experience and prospects with the australian national electricity market abstract australia has been an early and enthusiastic adopter of both electricity industry restructuring and market based environmental regulation the australian national electricity market nem was established in 1999 and australia also implemented one of the world s first renewable energy target schemes in 2001 with significant recent growth in wind generation australia provides an interesting case for assessing different approaches to facilitating wind integration into the electricity industry wind project developers in australia must assess both potential energy market and tradeable green certificate income streams when making investments wind farm energy income depends on the match of its uncertain time varying output with the regional half hourly market price a price that exhibits daily weekly and seasonal patterns and considerable uncertainty such price signals assist in driving investments that maximize project value to the electricity industry as a whole including integration costs and benefits for other participants recent nem rule changes will formally integrate wind generation in the market s scheduling processes while a centralized wind forecasting system has also been introduced this paper outlines experience to date with wind integration in the nem describes the evolution of market rules in response and assesses their possible implications for facilitating high future wind penetrations

state level benefits of energy efficiency this paper describes benefits attributable to state level energy efficiency programs nationwide state level energy efficiency programs have targeted all sectors of the economy and have employed a wide range of methods to promote energy efficiency standard residential and industrial programs typically identify between 20 and 30 energy savings in homes and plants respectively over a 20 year period of time an average state that aggressively pursues even a limited array of energy efficiency programs can potentially reduce total state energy use by as much as 20 well designed energy efficiency programs can be expected to help overcome numerous barriers to the market penetration of energy efficient technologies and accelerate the market penetration of the technologies energy efficiency programs are cost effective typical benefit cost ratios exceed 3 1 and are much higher when non energy and macroeconomic benefits are included indeed energy efficiency and associated programs and investments can create significant numbers of new jobs and enhance state tax revenues several states have incorporated energy efficiency into their economic development programs it should also be noted that increasing amounts of venture capital are being invested in the energy sector in general and in specific technologies like solar power in particular

comparing the costs of intermittent and dispatchable electricity generating technologies economic evaluations of alternative electric generating technologies typically rely on comparisons between their expected life cycle production costs per unit of electricity supplied the standard life cycle cost metric utilized is the levelized cost per mwh supplied this paper demonstrates that this metric is inappropriate for comparing intermittent generating technologies like wind and solar with dispatchable generating technologies like nuclear gas combined cycle and coal levelized cost comparisons are a misleading metric for comparing intermittent and dispatchable generating technologies because they fail to take into account differences in the production profiles of intermittent and dispatchable generating technologies and the associated large variations in the market value of the electricity they supply levelized cost comparisons overvalue intermittent generating technologies compared to dispatchable base load generating technologies they also overvalue wind generating technologies compared to solar generating technologies integrating differences in production profiles the associated variations in the market value of the electricity supplied and life cycle costs associated with different generating technologies is necessary to provide meaningful comparisons between them this market based framework also has implications for the appropriate design of procurement auctions created to implement renewable energy procurement mandates the efficient structure of production tax credits for renewable energy and the evaluation of the additional costs of integrating intermittent generation into electric power networks

welfare the earned income tax credit and the labor supply of single mothers during 1984 1996 welfare and tax policy were changed to encourage work by single mothers the earned income tax credit was expanded welfare benets were cut welfare time limits were added and welfare cases were terminated medicaid for the working poor was expanded as were training programs and child care during this same time period there were unprecedented increases in the employment and hours of single mothers we show that a large share of the increase in work by single mothers can be attributed to the eitc and other tax changes with smaller shares for welfare benet cuts welfare waivers training programs and child care programs