an econometric model of crowding out of lower education levels abstract unemployment in the netherlands has risen strongly in recent years there are large differences in unemployment rates between education levels according to neo classical theory these differences should be explained by distorted relative prices or by lack of human capital in this paper we test an alternative explanation according to this view the high unemployment rate for lower education levels is caused by excess labour supply highly educated people take the jobs which could be occupied by less educated people to test this view a regression model is developed estimation results indicate that differences in unemployment rates can indeed be explained by excess supply of qualified labour

post layoff earnings among semiconductor workers this study uses administrative data from california s unemployment insurance program to analyze the post layoff earnings of displaced and recalled workers in silicon valley s semiconductor industry

measuring noise in inventory models this paper has two purposes one is to assess different models of inventory behavior in terms of their ability to approximate the realized data we do this initially for the pure production smoothing model and then for a sequence of generalizations our analysis both performs specification tests as well as measures the deviations of the data from each null model through use of a noise ratio statistic a second purpose is to explore whether observed cost shocks in particular raw materials prices help explain inventory movements we find that the production smoothing model of inventories augmented by buffer stock motives stockout avoidance motives and observed cost shocks well approximates monthly data

macroeconomic implications of s s versus accelerator finished goods inventory strategies abstract large scale disaggregated simulation techniques involving 315 firms in 21 different industries holding 6 615 different stockpiles of purchased materials inputs are used to evaluate the implications for the stability of the economy of alternative strategies for managing inventories the simulations reveal that an s s form of production scheduling results in a somewhat less stable economy than is obtained with accelerator type inventory management

taking stock a critical assessment of recent research on inventories empirical and theoretical aspects of inventory behavior became hot topics in the 1950s and early 1960s no one seemed to notice the tension that was developing between the emerging macroeconomic and microeconomic views of inventories macroeconomists routinely thought of inventories as a destabilizing factor yet the prevailing micro theory viewed inventories as a stabilizing factor it was a fascinating question that was barely explored instead somewhat inexplicably interest in inventories dried up as if inventories were of minor economic significance and little intrinsic interest by the early 1980s then economists once again knew something they had known in the 1950s that inventory investment is of first order importance in business cycles but they were also beginning to realize that the standard production smoothing buffer stock model of inventories was in deep trouble this paper focuses on developments since that realization

seasonality aggregation and the testing of the production smoothing hypothesis one of the leading hypotheses concerning the dynamics of production over time is the production smoothing hypothesis given a planning horizon which spans a number of production periods the firm need not produce in each period an amount equal to expected sales rather resorting to inventory accumulation and liquidation the firm may follow a production plan temporally smoother than the path of demand if firms faced with convex cost functions chose to smooth the rate of output in order to minimize costs one would expect to observe that the rate of output would vary less than the rate of sales with variations in inventory stocks absorbing some of the fluctuations in sales recently work on the testing of the production smoothing hypothesis has cast doubt on its empirical validity the evidence presented by alan blinder seems to indicate that the variance of production exceeds that of sales in seven out of eight two digit retail industries 1981 and in eighteen out of twenty two digit manufacturing industries 1983 and 1986 the purpose of this paper then is to examine the validity of such tests when seasonally adjusted aggregated data are used the evidence presented show that the relative size of the variances of the seasonally adjusted production and sales does not provide valid tests of the production smoothing hypothesis in addition aggregating over firms where the seasonal patterns differ may also distort tests of production smoothing blinder realized that the use of seasonally adjusted data may not provide an adequate test of the hypothesis stating had they been available i would have preferred to use data that were not seasonally adjusted since the production smoothing model presumably applies to seasonal fluctuations in sales however such data are not available 1983 fn 19 in this paper i focus on the cement industry because the unadjusted disaggregated data are available for the direct testing of the conjecture that aggregate seasonally adjusted data mask production smoothing phenomenon aggregate monthly data on five other industries will also be examined

production management output volatility and good luck abstract this paper models the scale of the technology shocks as a decision variable whose value is determined by the production manager it is shown that smaller shocks enhance profit in several ways and thus the firm has an incentive to adopt more reliable production technologies the adoption of these technologies may account for the good luck hypothesis in which the stabilization of gross domestic product gdp since 1984 is attributed to smaller shocks it differs from this hypothesis in two respects first the reduced volatility should be permanent second the stabilization does not require smaller intrinsic shocks to the economy

effort and comparison income experimental and survey evidence the authors test the hypothesis that individual effort on the job depends both on one s own income and on the individual s position in the relevant income distribution combining experimental evidence from a gift exchange game with multi country issp survey data they analyze the extent to which relative income affects an individual s effort finding that an individual s rank in the income distribution more strongly determines effort than does others average income which suggests that comparisons are more ordinal than cardinal their experiment also reveals that comparisons over time affect effort individuals who received higher income offers or enjoyed higher income rank in the past exerted lower levels of effort for a given current income and rank

developments in global inventory investment abstract this paper analyses some of the connections between macroeconomic inventory data and other gdp characteristics until now this issue has got relatively low interest though we believe it can be important in understanding macroeconomic phenomena after a brief summary of previous research six hypotheses are formulated regarding tendencies of the ratio of inventory investment to gdp and its relationship with the level of development growth and fluctuations of gdp elementary statistical methods are applied on an oecd database containing 14 of the most developed economies of the world the analysis mostly supports the hypotheses however due to the limitations by the quality of the database and the methodology used this support is not very reliable this calls attention to the need for further research on the subject

are ols estimates of the return to schooling biased downward another look the authors examine evidence on bias in ols estimates of the economic return to schooling to study omitted ability bias they use test scores available in the national longitudinal survey of youth as proxies for ability allowing for measurement error in these test scores the authors also explore biases from the endogeneity of schooling or experience or measurement error in these variables in their data ols estimation including test scores appears to be appropriate and indicates an upward bias of roughly 40 percent in the ols estimate ignoring ability this contrasts with evidence from other recent research using different statistical experiments to purge schooling of its correlation with the wage equation error copyright 1995 by mit press

wages and employment in a segmented labor market this paper analyzes the impact of business cycle fluctuations on a labor market segmented into a unionized primary sector and a competitive secondary sector either permanent or temporary changes in real aggregate demand are shown to widen the intersectoral wage differential in recession and under reasonable specifications of key parameters to cause greater fluctuations of primary sector employment than secondary sector employment this pattern agrees with the stylized facts of the u s economy

job matching and job competition are lower educated workers at the back of job queues abstract during the cyclical downturn of the 1980s unemployment in the netherlands increased substantially with unemployment rates of lower educated workers increasing more than those of higher educated workers a possible explanation of this phenomenon is job competition between workers with different levels of education another explanation of the diverging unemployment rates is that employers dismiss replaceable lower educated workers before irreplaceable higher educated workers in this paper we scrutinize the job competition explanation our results show that there only is job competition between unemployed workers with an academic and a higher vocational education there is no job competition at lower levels of education

split sample instrumental variables estimates of the return to schooling this article reevaluates recent instrumental variables iv estimates of the returns to schooling in light of the fact that two stage least squares is biased in the same direction as ordinary least squares ols even in very large samples we propose a split sample instrumental variables ssiv estimator that is not biased toward ols ssiv uses one half of a sample to estimate parameters of the first stage equation estimated first stage parameters are then used to construct fitted values and second stage parameter estimates in the other half sample ssiv is biased toward 0 but this bias can be corrected the splt sample estimators confirm and reinforce some previous findings on the returns to schooling but fail to confirm others

industry wage differentials and efficiency wages a dissenting view with south african evidence abstract does industry wage dispersion constitute evidence of either efficiency wages or rent sharing comparison of the industry wage premia of whites and africans in south africa casts doubt upon the rent extraction and the gift exchange explanations of the industry wage structure unions combined with union threats fail to explain the data other explanations unobserved ability compensating differentials and the shirking monitoring and turnover models are rejected here as they have been before remaining possibilities are expense preference theory and internal equity rules implications for future research are pointed out

nepotism discrimination and the persistence of utility maximizing owner operated firms reply much debate in the discrimination literature surrounds whether employers with biased preferences can persist in the market 7 10 this issue is a natural extension of the broader literature on owner operated firms which focuses on the consistency of utility and profit maximization 12 13 14 18 26 27 theories of owner operated firms which have a long history in economics model the entrepreneur as both a producer and consumer of goods that determines the level of production and consumption jointly through utility maximization 2 9 16 22 31 this approach is applied in this paper to examine employer discrimination and nepotism our analysis provides necessary conditions for utility maximizing firms to persist in the market and shows how biased preferences can yield seemingly uneconomic input and output choices that are in fact rationally inefficient empirical results using data on family farms support the prediction that utility maximizing entrepreneurs trade profit for nonmarket goods and do not hire inputs to maximize profits competitive neoclassical theories of the labor market do not provide a clear theoretical resolution to the issue of persistence of employer nepotism and discrimination the employer discrimination model proposed by becker 4 5 and extended by arrow 1 postulates that entrepreneurs maximize utility that increases with profit but decreases with a nonmarket attribute of some workers e g race ethnicity or gender these models predict that white male workers may initially have better market opportunities than comparable minority or female workers however entrepreneurs who hire based on nonproductive attributes are also predicted to earn less than a normal rate of return and because they derive disutility from an aspect of owning and operating a firm can improve their welfare by leaving the industry and converting firm assets to those that do not require employment decisions e g stocks and bonds this result has the important policy implication that market intervention may not be necessary to improve the relative pay and employment of disadvantaged groups when employers are the source of the discrimination alternatively goldberg 15 uses the arrow 1 framework but postulates that employers

inventory investment and production in europe during the great recession is there a pattern abstract the paper examines the nexus between inventory investment and the change in aggregate production during the great recession of 2008 09 for 29 european countries a fairly uniform pattern emerges inventory investment is positively correlated with changes in production and follows the latter with a time lag of two to three quarters very few countries austria greece spain and switzerland diverge from the typical pattern this might hint to problems with respect to data quality

inequality and attainment in a dual labor market models of wage determination and sector attainment are estimated for a cohort of young men in a dual labor market neoclassical economic vs dual labor market views on market equilibrium are contrasted although schooling is rewarded similarly in the primary and secondary sectors other results support the dual labor market view that employment in the primary sector is rationed via a queuing mechanism

a multi country analysis of aggregate inventory behavior abstract the paper provides an analysis of macroeconomic inventory trends using eight different modes we have studied the connection between inventory intensity ratio of inventory investment to gdp and the various components of gdp both as simultaneous and lagged variables data of 88 countries have been used for the analysis the analysis supports previous studies according to which even though no strong connection can be disclosed a few interesting consequences can be drawn concerning the differences of inventory intensity in different groups of countries the relation of effects of lagged and simultaneous variables and the significance of various components of gdp

segmentation or competition in china s urban labour market in china urban residents have traditionally been protected against labour marketcompetition from rural urban migrants over the period of urban economic reform rural urban migration was allowed to increase in order to ll the employment gap asgrowth of labour demand outstripped that of the resident labour force in urbanareas however as reforms gained pace and controls were lifted it is plausible thatcompetition for work between migrants and urban residents would have increased the paper examines whether the relationship is one of segmentation or competitionin the labour market it uses attitudinal responses from two urban surveys theurban workers who perceive competition from migrants are those who are mostvulnerable the ndings are consistent with the presence of continued labourmarket segmentation but suggest also that competition between the two groups isincreasing key words labour markets wages migration labour market segmentation chinajel classi cations j30 j40

human capital reservation wages and job competition heckman s lambda re interpreted this study integrates insights from three theories into a single model explaining the simultaneous distribution of employment and wages human capital theory is taken as the general framework whereas search theory and the more recent crowding or job competition hypothesis are used to explain selectivity in employment and the resulting bias in wage regressions an empirical test on belgian data using a two stage probit ols model indicates that the crowding theory dominates the search hypothesis for men for women it seems to be outweighed by relatively higher reservation wages probably due to women s different behaviour with respect to family responsibilities

kinship ties social networks and segmented labor markets evidence from the construction sector in egypt abstract this paper tests for rationing of entry into craft occupations in the construction labor market in egypt and investigates whether entry is rationed according to regional origin and access to kinship and other social networks i use a modified version of roy s model of occupational choice which allows for the existence of costs of entry into craft occupations data from a 1988 survey of construction workers are used to estimate the model and test for rationing the results confirm the existence of rationing according to a worker s regional background but are inconclusive with respect to kinship ties and social networks

a theory of dual labor markets with application to industrial policy discrimination and keynesian unemployment this paper develops a model of dual labor markets based on employers need to motivate workers in order to elicit effort from their workers employers may find it optimal to pay more than the going wage this changes fundamentally the character of labor markets the model is applied to a wide range of labor market phenomena it provides a coherent framework for understanding the claims of industrial policy advocates it also can provide the basis for a theory of occupational segregation and discrimination that will not be eroded by market forces finally the model provides the basis for a theory of involuntary unemployment

firm performance under just in time and traditional proxies for profit maximization abstract when the profit function is too complex to maximize directly firms must rely on some other performance criterion to guide work station activity simplification is achieved by emphasizing either flow or stock management flow management seeks to ensure that no work station is starved by available inputs stock management seeks to minimize inventories this paper develops a model to assess the performance of these two approaches for a firm that can carry both input and output inventories the model includes shocks to both demand and production and the possibility of a stockout is explicitly reflected in the optimization problem stock management dominates flow management when carrying costs are sufficiently large when carrying costs are moderate the strategy of simply ignoring shocks to demand and capacity dominates both stock and flow management the flow management approach is superior only when carrying costs are very small

a test of dual labor market theory despite substantial differences in their views of the appropriate policy response to the existence of poverty neither the proponents of dual market theory nor its critics have proposed potentially conclusive tests of the dual market hypothesis this paper presents a test of the two central propositions of dual market theory 1 the existence of two distinct labor markets with different wage setting mechanisms and 2 the existence of barriers to mobility between the labor markets we find considerable support for both hypothesis estimation of a switching model of wage determination with unknown regimes yields two distinct wage equations the one which most workers are associated with closely resembles the standard human capital regression with significant returns to education and experience the other equation is flat with no returns to human capital these two equations resemble the predictions of dual market theory for the primary and secondary markets respectively further we present evidence that at least some non white workers are involuntarily confined to the secondary market this crowding of minority workers into the low wage labor market accounts for a substantial portion of white non white wage differences we interpret these results as providing empirical support for the dual market hypothesis and for recent theoretical work on efficiency wagemodels in addition combining the efficiency wage argument with the observation that much of the white non white wage difference is explained by the exclusion of non whites from the primary sector suggests an explanation for the persistance of wage differences this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

is unemployment insurance addictive evidence from the benefit durations of repeat users the author finds evidence that the past occurrence of a spell of insured unemployment lengthens the duration of future spells descriptive statistics from canadian administrative data covering mid 1971 to early 1990 suggest that unemployment insurance ui claimants tend to spend a longer and longer time collecting benefits with each additional claim they make this finding contradicts the implication of static neoclassical models that successive ui spells should be of the same length the author hypothesizes that the stigma attached to receiving unemployment benefits erodes with each new ui claim an individual files

the reemergence of segmented labor market theory according to dual labor market theory the labor market can be usefully described as consisting of two sectors a high wage primary sector with good working conditions stable employment and substantial returns to human capital variables such as education and experience and a low wage secondary sector with the opposite characteristics moreover primary jobs are rationed that is not all workers who are qualified for primary sector jobs and desire one can obtain one finally the sector of the labor market in which an individual is employed directly influences his or her tastes behavior patterns and cognitive abilities thus the dual labor market model or more generally segmented labor market models is simultaneously a description of the income distribution a claim about the absence of market clearing and a radical departure from the standard neoclassical assumption of fully rational actors and exogenously determined preferences while this last element is potentially the most interesting even its proponents fail to give it the attention it deserves and related work has not been incorporated into the segmented labor market model in this paper we therefore concentrate on the first two elements of the model segmented labor market theory was sufficiently popular in the late 1960 s and early 1970 s to be taken seriously by prominent mainstream labor economists however two influential and largely negative reviews glenn cain 1976 michael wachter 1974 portrayed the segmented labor market hypothesis as largely atheoretical and based at best on questionable statistical analysis it seems fair to say that even sympathetic mainstream critics felt that key insights from the segmented labor model could be incorporated into neoclassical analysis and that the remaining elements of the model did not form a sufficiently coherent theory to pose a challenge to the neoclassical model whatever the merits of this perception it is clear that advocates of the segmented labor market approach did not develop a formal theory which conformed to the standards of mainstream economists with some notable exceptions michael piore 1975 david gordon 1972 the work was atheoretical moreover the empirical methods used tended to fall outside the norm for example interviews observational studies and historical and institutional analysis advocates of the segmented labor market perspective mostly radical political economists chose instead to develop their own research program outside the mainstream the reemergence of segmented labor market theory is linked with the reversal of these two tendencies the theory has been pursued by economists using modern tools of imperfect information theory and state of the art econometrics as a result the approach has again attracted the attention of the mainstream even a few years ago it would have been a clairvoyant observer who predicted that lawrence summers would be working on a theoretical model of labor market duality with jeremy bulow 1986 that robert solow would count among his recent work a dual market model with ian mcdonald 1985 and that james heckman would publish an article in which he undertook an empirical test of a dual market model failed to reject the model and then devoted much of the rest of the article to attacking his and other tests of the dual labor market view see his article with v joseph hotz 1986 since the theoretical developments are largely associated with efficiency wage and departments of economics university of california berkeley ca 94720 and nber and boston university 270 bay state road boston ma 02215 and nber respectively this study was supported in part by nsf grant no ses 8606139 lang acknowledges support from a sloan faculty research fellowship dickens acknowledges support from the institute of industrial relations at berkeley

an investigation of the labor market earnings of panamanian males evaluating sources of inequality this paper presents empirical evidence on the determinants of labor market earnings and inequality for males in panama using newly available microdata we estimate earnings equations based on the measurement framework of mincer 1974 and compare them with those for other countries at various stages of economic development we present evidence on two aspects of inequality in less developed economies labor market segmentation and social stratification we present tests of the segmentation hypothesis including several of the dual labor market hypotheses and discuss their inherent ambiguity we also present evidence on the importance of family background for earnings determination and educational attainment

macroeconomic characteristics and inventory investment a multi country study the paper is a new element in a series of studies analyzing macroeconomic inventory behavior by use of multi country data in this paper seven hypotheses are tested with positive result these hypotheses include subjects like relations of inventories with growth and with some other macroeconomic indicators of the use of gdp and the long term tendencies of global inventory formations multivariate statistical analysis is used for evaluation

on socioeconomic causes of wait unemployment abstract this paper discusses implications of wait unemployment in a two sector model with a dual labour market primary sector firms pay efficiency wages the wage rate in the secondary sector is determined by labour supply and demand most queueing models assume that workers for the primary sector are only recruited from the pool of unemployed instead this paper explains wait unemployment by assuming that people care about their relative status in society the model is presented in general terms and a closed form solution is obtained by specifying functional forms the results emphasize the need for proper manpower policies to reduce structural unemployment

a theory of wage dispersion and job market segmentation job market segmentation refers to the idea that there tends to be a correlation among high wages high productivity high capital intensity high value added few quits relative to layoffs and low labor turnover this paper develops a model of wage dispersion and job market segmentation based on the very sparse assumption that the only departure from a strictly orthodox neoclassical world consists of wages being sticky in the short run implications of the model are explored and discussed

inventory investment and sectoral characteristics in some oecd countries this paper discusses the effects of sectoral structure on the long run macroeconomic inventory behaviour of national economies data on 15 oecd countries are included in the analysis which is based on correlation and cluster analysis methodologies the study is part of a long term research project exploring factors influencing the inventory behaviour of national economies first we introduce some basic characteristics of macroeconomic inventory formation in the 15 oecd countries we argue that our previous results on the existence of specific characteristic features of macroeconomic inventory investment are justified hence it makes sense to study the factors influencing these features we then examine the contribution of various sectors to the production of in the countries involved and the relationship between sectoral structure and inventory intensity annual inventory change gross value added we find that the high share of agriculture and manufacturing increases inventory intensity that the increasing share of services has a negative effect and that the role of construction and trade is not obvious the relatively low stability of the statistical results warns us to be cautious with our judgements further case by case analysis would be required to obtain more solid results

institutional economics and the minimum wage broadening the theoretical and policy debate debate among labor economists on the pros and cons of a minimum wage law has come to focus on whether labor markets are competitive or monopsonistic using principles and concepts of institutional economics the author argues that this perspective on minimum wages is too narrow in particular he uses institutional theory to develop four theoretical rationales for minimum wage legislation setting a floor on wages to offset imperfect competition and inequality of bargaining power promote macroeconomic stabilization and full employment contribute to long term efficiency and growth and incorporate labor market externalities and social costs of labor one revisionist implication is that a minimum wage under plausible conditions may increase economic efficiency even in a purely competitive labor market

segmented labour markets in australia the concept and measurement of segmented labour markets has received little attention in australia here a method for establishing a taxonomy of occupaions according to characteristics associated with the segmented labour market hypothesis is presented using this taxonomy the distribution of workers in australia according to gender migrant status and trade union membershipis examined

inventory dynamics time lags and efficiency measures abstract standard measures employed to examine efficiency such as production efficiency in manufacturing are static in nature standard methods typically employ a stock flow approach to measure turnover and delay this is a first estimate but an inadequate approach since production processes are time dependent and dynamic this study examines theoretical issues concerning the standard method of measuring efficiency indices and introduces a refined dynamic measurement methodology the standard and proposed methodologies are applied to financial data for us tire and rubber goods industry to demonstrate the empirical differences between the two measures