multi region input output analysis of co2 emissions embodied in trade the feedback effects energy related co2 emissions embodied in international trade have been widely studied by researchers using the environmental input output framework despite the increasing interest in using the multi regional input output mrio model by researchers few studies have looked into the mechanism of feedback effects we introduce a method called the stepwise distribution of emissions embodied in trade swd eet to reveal how the emissions embodied in trade are absorbed by a country s final demands through a series of allocation steps a country s indirect absorption patterns and its indirect trade balance of emissions from bilateral trade with other countries are also studied based on the proposed method an empirical study using the data of asian economies shows significant differences in the consumption based emission estimates for some economies due to feedback effects through international trade the differences can be largely captured by the first step or the first two steps of the adjustment procedure in the swd eet analysis other findings and some recommendations are also presented

structural decomposition analysis of sources of decarbonizing economic development in china 1992 2006 abstract to analyze and understand decarbonizing economic development in china this paper undertakes a structural decomposition analysis of the historical change in energy related carbon intensity in china between 1992 and 2006 the results show that the energy related carbon intensity in china decreased by about three fourths between 1992 and 2006 and reduced carbon emissions by about two billion tons the decline in the energy related carbon intensity was mainly caused by changes in production pattern especially changes in energy intensity within each sector between 1992 and 2002 however the most important driving force of carbon intensity from 2002 2006 was not the energy intensity within each sector but the input mix on the other hand changes in demand pattern pushed up the carbon intensity to further decarbonize the economy in the future it is important for china to further enforce policies on shaping the production pattern such as reducing energy intensity and pay more attention to increasing the sustainability of the demand pattern at the same time

co movement of international crude oil price and indian stock market evidences from nonlinear cointegration tests this article explores nonlinear cointegration between international crude oil price and indian stock market in a multivariate framework for the period january 2 2003 to july 29 2011 by threshold cointegration tests which determine the structural breaks endogenously the tests reject any long run equilibrium relationship among the variables for the entire data span in order to get better insight threshold cointegration tests have been applied on three sub phases prior phase i and post phase iii to most volatile phase phase ii spanning from july 2 2007 to dec 29 2008 the tests suggest existence of cointegration in phase iii only toda yamamoto version of granger causality tests reveals that movements of international crude oil price have impact on indian stock market in phases ii and iii with no feedback effect the findings also suggest that global crude oil price is exogenously determined

china s balance of emissions embodied in trade approaches to measurement and allocating international responsibility international trade is characterized not only by the flow of capital and goods but also by the energy and emissions embodied in goods during their production this paper investigates the evolving role that chinese trade is playing in the response to climate change by estimating the scale of emissions embodied in china s current trade pattern and demonstrating the magnitude of the difference between the emissions it produces some of which are incurred to meet the consumption demands of the rest of the world and the emissions embodied in the goods it consumes estimating china s emissions on a consumption rather than a production basis both lowers its responsibility for carbon dioxide co2 emissions in 2006 from 5 500 to 3 840mtco2 and reduces the growth rate of emissions from an average of 12 5 per cent p a to 8 7 per cent p a between 2001 and 2006 the analysis indicates that a reliable consumption based accounting methodology is feasible and could improve our understanding of which actors and states are responsible for emissions for example recent emissions reductions by developed countries may lack credibility if production has merely been displaced to countries such as china moreover in the current institutional context production methodologies encourage leakages through trade that may do more to displace than to reduce emissions both equity and efficiency concerns therefore suggest that emissions embodied in trade should receive special attention in the distribution of post kyoto abatement burdens

examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 2 review of input output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade this paper offers a detailed review of recently described single and multi region input output models used to assess environmental impacts of internationally traded goods and services it is the second part of a two part contribution in part 1 turner k lenzen m wiedmann t and barrett j in press examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 1 a technical note on combining input output and ecological footprint analysis ecological economics we describe how to enumerate the resource and pollution content of inter regional and inter national trade flows with the aim to illustrate an ideal accounting and modelling framework for the estimation of ecological footprints a large number of such environment economic models have been described but only in the last few years models have emerged that use a more sophisticated multi region multi sector input output framework this has been made possible through improvements in data availability and quality as well as computability we identify six major models that employ multi sector multi region input output analysis in order to calculate environmental impacts embodied in international trade results from the reviewed studies demonstrate that it is important to explicitly consider the production recipe land and energy use as well as emissions in a multi region multi sector and multi directional trade model with global coverage and detailed sector disaggregation only then reliable figures for indicators of impacts embodied in trade such as the ecological footprint can be derived

asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries this study investigates the effects of oil price shocks on three measures of oil exporters and oil importers external balances total trade balance oil trade balance and non oil trade balance we employ three second generation heterogeneous linear panel models and one recently developed non linear panel estimation technique that allows for cross sectional dependence with respect to 28 major oil exporting countries an increase in oil prices leads to an improved real oil trade balance although it is detrimental to non oil and total trade balances this finding might be due to the expenditure effect arising from increases in proceeds from oil exports a decrease in oil prices is found to be beneficial for both total and oil trade balances in these oil exporting countries forty major oil importers seem to be increasingly shielded from positive oil shocks over the 1970s and 1980s however they must worry about oil price declines a decline in oil prices has a negative impact on both total and real oil trade balances resulting from increased oil imports in emerging economies hence a decline in oil prices is beneficial to oil exporters due to the quantity effect outweighing the price effect while for oil importers a stable oil price is more desirable than a price decline these results are important to take into account if we are to gain a full understanding on the magnitude of the trade and macroeconomic effects of oil price changes and what the policy responses should be

co2 embodiment in china australia trade the drivers and implications abstract this study focuses on co 2 emissions embodied in the characteristic china australia bilateral trade which refer to the co 2 emissions due to the production of goods traded between the two countries we perform an assessment of the co 2 embodiment in the trade during the period between 2002 and 2010 we find that the scale effect has been a dominant effect contributing to an increase of co 2 emissions embodied in the bilateral trade through the years while the composition effect seems to be a major driver for reducing co 2 embodiment in the exports of australia to china based on an analysis of the difference between the amounts of actual co 2 embodiment and those in a hypothetical no trade scenario we estimate that the net co 2 emissions due to the bilateral trade declined from around 10 mt of co 2 emissions in 2002 to 10 mt in 2010 that is the bilateral trade contributed to a reduction of the global carbon emissions in the recent years this finding suggests that the rapid growth of exports of carbon intensive goods from australia to china has helped in reducing carbon emissions globally because carbon intensity factors of those goods are much lower in australia than those in china

cost benefit reflective distribution charging methodology this paper describes the principle and implementation of a new mw mvar miles charging methodology which was developed to reflect three key cost drivers in distribution network development the distance used to support nodal real and reactive power injection withdrawal the degree of support offered by the network assets and the operating condition of the supporting assets in terms of their power factors the inclusion of the latter driver allows the developed charging methodology to reward network users who are contributing to better power factors and better network utilization while penalizing customers who worsen power factors and network utilization as a consequence the charging model is able to provide forward looking incentives for network customers to behave in a manner to better the network condition which will in turn help to reduce the cost of future network development in addition the separation of real and reactive power pricing would give network users clear indications of the cost of their reactive power draw from the network which in turn could help them to evaluate the economics in investing in reactive power compensation devices the proposed charging methodology is demonstrated on a practical eight busbar distribution system with a mixed demand and embedded generation eg this paper results from work undertaken in a project on distribution charging methodologies for western power distribution the views in this paper expressed are not those of western power distribution

from production based to consumption based national emission inventories abstract under the united national framework convention of climate change unfccc countries are required to submit national emission inventories nei to benchmark reductions in greenhouse gas ghg emissions depending on the definition and system boundary of the nei the mitigation options and priorities may vary the territorial system boundary used by the unfccc has been critiqued for not including international transportation and potentially causing carbon leakage to address these issues past literature has argued in favour of using consumption based nei in climate policy this article discusses several issues in moving from the standard production based nei to consumption based nei first two distinct accounting approaches for constructing consumption based nei are presented the approaches differ in the allocation of intermediate consumption of imported products second a consistent method of weighting production based and consumption based nei is discussed this is an extension of the previous literature on shared responsibility to nei third due to increased uncertainty and a wide system boundary it may be difficult to implement consumption based nei directly into climate policy several alternative options for incorporating consumption based inventories into climate policy are discussed

the asymmetric impact of oil prices interest rates and oil price uncertainty on unemployment in the us abstract in this study we investigate the presence of asymmetric interactions between oil prices oil price uncertainty interest rates and unemployment in a cointegration framework utilizing the nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag nardl approach we show the asymmetric responses of unemployment to changes in oil prices oil price uncertainty and interest rates in the long run more specifically the results of our analyses suggest that an increase in oil price results in increased unemployment while there is no significant impact of reduced oil prices on the one hand reduced oil price uncertainty leads to a decrease in unemployment whereas an increase in oil price uncertainty does not have an impact we also observe increased unemployment in response to a decrease in interest rates as the impact of increased interest rates is not significant last but not least we find that option implied oil price volatility as a measure of oil price uncertainty outperforms the conditional volatility of crude oil prices in predicting unemployment this study provides valuable implications for policymakers to design sound economic policies

embodied carbon dioxide emission at supra national scale a coalition analysis for g7 bric and the rest of the world abstract presented in this study is an empirical analysis of embodied carbon dioxide emissions induced by fossil fuel combustion for the world divided into three supra national coalitions i e g7 bric and the rest of the world row via the application of a multi region input output modeling for 2004 embodied emission intensities for the three coalitions are calculated and compared with market exchange rate and purchase power parity separately used to investigate the difference between nominal and real production efficiencies emissions embodied in different economic activities such as production consumption import and export are calculated and analyzed accordingly and remarkable carbon trade imbalances associated with g7 surplus of 1 53 billion tons or 36 its traded emissions and bric deficit of 1 37 billion tons or 51 its traded emissions and approximate balance with row deficit of 0 16 billion tons or 3 its traded emissions are concretely revealed carbon leakages associated with industry transfer and international trades are illustrated in terms of impacts on global climate policies the last but not least per capita consumption based emissions for g7 bric and row are determined as 12 95 1 53 and 2 22 tons respectively and flexible abatement policies as well as equity on per capita entitlement are discussed

role of embodied energy in the european manufacturing industry application to short term impacts of a carbon tax abstract role of energy in the manufacturing industry is a major concern for energy and environmental policy design issues like energy prices security of supply and carbon mitigation are often connected to the industry and its competitiveness this paper examines the role and consequences of embodied energy in the european industry to this end a multi regional input output analysis including 59 industrial sectors for all european union countries and 17 more aggregated industries for other regions of the world is developed other segments of the economy are not included this base is combined with energy consumption carbon emission as well as bilateral trade data for every sector in all included countries our main result is that embodied energy in manufactured products imports represents a significant aspect of the energy situation in european industries with quantities close to the direct energy consumption these flows can further be broken down for detailed analysis at the sector level thanks to the number of distinct industries included results demonstrate that an important part of embodied energy inside european products is not concerned with domestic energy price changes in addition a european wide carbon tax would induce an unbalanced burden on industries and countries

labor market dynamics in the u s food sector a simultaneous equation model is estimated to explain labor market phenomena including wages employment and labor productivity and food prices at manufacturing and retail levels of the u s food industry dynamic simulation results show that endogenizing input costs in a fully specified markup pricing model leads to a complex long run pattern of food price determination wage determination is found to play a central role linking general price levels to food sector prices and labor market behavior energy price changes are shown to significantly affect food prices food sector labor productivity is found to decline in response to exogenous commodity price shocks

a review of recent multi region input output models used for consumption based emission and resource accounting abstract the interest in consumption based emission and resource accounting has grown significantly many studies juxtapose consumer emissions carbon footprint and producer territorial emissions of greenhouse gases in order to demonstrate the effects of trade on the national emission budget to this end a respectable number of studies have been undertaken worldwide in order to estimate emissions embedded in international trade of numerous countries and world regions input output approaches and increasingly multi region input output mrio models are commonly chosen as they provide an appropriate methodological framework for complete carbon footprint estimates at the national and supra national level with increasing processing capabilities of computers and a wider availability of economic accounts environmental accounts and trade data such models are now being implemented on a wide scale after a brief overview of salient single region input output studies i provide an in depth review of the most recent multi region input output models used for the purpose of consumption based environmental accounting the main methodological features and important results are described for around twenty studies covering the years 2007 to 2009 this is followed by a detailed review of studies dealing with uncertainty in mrio analysis an area which has not received a lot of attention so far i conclude that further research is mainly needed in two areas a improvements in data availability and quality and b improvements in the accuracy of mrio modelling

towards a competitive market for reactive power this paper presents the design of a competitive market for reactive power ancillary services generator reactive power capability characteristics are used to analyze the reactive power costs and subsequently to construct a bidding framework the reactive power market is settled on uniform price auction using a compromise programming approach based on a modified optimal power flow model the paper examines market power issues in these markets and identifies locations where strategic market power advantages are present that need to be removed through investments in reactive power devices

china s provincial co2 emissions embodied in international and interprovincial trade trades create a mechanism of embodied co2 emissions transfer among regions causing distortion on the total emissions as the world s second largest economy china has a large scale of trade which results in the serious problem of embodied co2 emissions transfer this paper analyzes the characteristics of china s co2 emissions embodied in international and interprovincial trade from the provincial perspective the multi regional input output model is used to clarify provincial co2 emissions from geographical and sectoral dimensions including 30 provinces and 28 sectors two calculating principles production accounting principle and consumption accounting principle munksgaard and pedersen 2001 are applied the results show that for international trade the eastern area accounts for a large proportion in china s embodied co2 emissions the sectors as net exporters and importers of embodied co2 emissions belong to labor intensive and energy intensive industries respectively for interprovincial trade the net transfer of embodied co2 emissions is from the eastern area to the central area and energy intensive industries are the main contributors with the largest amount of direct co2 emissions the eastern area plays an important role in co2 emissions reduction the central and western areas need supportive policies to avoid the transfer of industries with high emissions

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

crude oil and the macroeconomy tests of some popular notions a note perhaps no other economic events in the post world war ii era have generated as much attention as the series of crude oil price shocks that have jolted the world economy since the opec boycott of 1973 a tremendous amount of space in the popular and professional literature has been devoted to analyzing the impacts of these shocks on the developed economies and the adjustments these shocks have induced one residual of this literature has been a general impression that since 1973 the functional relationship between crude oil prices and the developed macroeconomies has been dramatically and fundamentally altered yet to our knowledge no one has formally tested this impression recent evidence of hamilton 1983 suggests that crude oil prices had a strong impact on the u s business cycle well before 1973 further while textbook treatments of oil price shocks tend to highlight cost push inflationary effects the research of berndt and wood 1975 1979 and wilcox 1983 indicates the net complementarity between energy and capital in the u s economy is quite strong both before and after 1973 thus oil price shocks may have stronger real effects than generally believed in this paper we formally test three popular notions associated with the so called

sectoral shifts and cyclical unemployment a substantial fraction of cyclical unemployment is better characterized as fluctuations of the frictional or natural rate than as deviations from some relatively stable natural rate shifts of employment demand between sectors of the economy necessitate continuous labor reallocation since it takes time for workers to find new jobs some unemployment is unavoidable this paper presents evidence that most of the unemployment fluctuations of the seventies unlike those in the sixties were induced by unusual structural shifts within the u s economy simple time series models of layoffs and unemployment are constructed that include a measure of structural shifts within the labor market these models are estimated and a derived natural rate series is constructed

oil price shocks and the dispersion hypothesis recent research by david lilien shows that a significant fraction of aggregate unemployment can be explained by the dispersion of employment growth across industries this paper presents two new results in this area first it is shown that a significant fraction of the variation in lilien s dispersion index is due to the differential impact of oil shocks across industries second and more important it is shown that once the dispersion in employment growth due to oil shocks is accounted for the residual dispersion has no explanatory power for unemployment

optimal active reactive power dispatch under competition via bilevel programming this paper proposes an active reactive power dispatch procedure that is expressed via a bilevel optimization problem whose upper and lower level criteria are respectively the minimum opportunity cost and minimum offered price of active power it analyzes the impact of minimizing such criteria on system operation and it investigates the behavior of marginal prices and opportunity costs and their use in mechanisms to compensate generators for power provision the bilevel problem is solved using a version of interior point methods derived for mathematical programs with complementarity constraints results obtained with three test systems are analyzed

primary energy and greenhouse gases embodied in australian final consumption an input output analysis input output modeling of primary energy and greenhouse gas embodiments in goods and services is a useful technique for designing greenhouse gas abatement policies the present paper describes direct and indirect primary energy and greenhouse gas requirements for a given set of australian final consumption it considers sectoral disparities in energy prices capital formation and international trade flows and it accounts for embodiments in the gross national expenditure as well as the gross domestic product primary energy and greenhouse gas intensities in terms of mj and kg co2 e are reported as well as national balances of primary energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

production based and consumption based national greenhouse gas inventories an implication for estonia two national greenhouse gas ghg inventories were prepared for estonia 1 an inventory that includes ghg emissions from the production of goods and services i e commodities within its national territory and 2 an inventory of ghg emissions occurring within and outside its national boundaries due to estonia s consumption of commodities whether produced domestically or traded bilaterally the inventories included estimates of energy related and non energy related carbon dioxide co2 methane ch4 and nitrous oxide n2o emissions converted to co2 equivalent co2eq associated with the production and consumption of commodities grouped in three main sectors energy industrial processes and agriculture input output io analysis emissions embodied in bilateral trade eebt approaches and the basic methods of the 2006 ipcc guidelines were used to perform the estimates the results of the study illustrated that the total co2eq emissions associated with consumption in estonia in 2005 were 18 higher than those associated with production primarily due to the net import of co2eq emissions from countries outside of the european union

input output analysis of co2 emissions embodied in trade and the driving forces processing and normal exports in recent years energy related co2 emissions embodied in international trade and the driving forces have been widely studied by researchers using the environmental input output framework most previous studies however do not differentiate different input structures in manufacturing processing exports and normal exports using china as an example this paper exemplifies how implications of results obtained using different export assumptions differ the study posits that the utilization of traditional i o model results in an overestimation of emissions embodied in processing exports and an underestimation in normal exports the estimate of co2 emissions embodied in china s exports drops by 32 when the extended i o model is used the choice of export assumption has more impact on the decomposition results for processing exports the study further highlights that for a country with an export structure similar to china it is meaningful to look into the impact of export assumption in embodied emission studies

is there co movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil even though significant attempts have appeared in literature the current perception of co movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static in particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures a comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed our results indicate that co movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold

the effects of direct trade within china on regional and national co2 emissions curbing national carbon emissions and clarifying regional carbon reduction responsibility are two challenges faced by china both of which are influenced by interregional trade to exclude the influence of trade balance this paper proposes a methodology to parcel the pollution haven hypothesis into a multi regional input output model applies it to a longer time gap which is made up of two representative periods of chinese economy 1997 2002 and 2002 2007 and clarifies the provincial and sectoral contributions to national emissions we find that 1 embodied co2 emissions first remain relatively stable and then increase sharply for the two periods and the changing trends are mainly determined by the decreasing carbon intensity and the expanding trade scale respectively 2 with the secondary industry as the main contributor regional carbon spillover is mainly concentrated in the coastal provinces but it contributes to an increase of co2 emissions in the central and western regions 3 the coastal and inland provinces contribute to the increase of national carbon emissions through interregional imports and exports respectively but the pollution haven hypothesis is not obvious and is only observed in 2002

parcelling virtual carbon in the pollution haven hypothesis the methodology proposed in this paper allows us to parcel the pollution haven hypothesis phh into a bi regional input output framework to analyse whether the specialisation of countries in different stages of production and or in final goods trading generates an increase or a decrease in global emissions as a consequence of international trade we apply the model to the spain china trade relationship as it existed in 2005 finding a phh of 29 667 ktco2 if this trade had not existed so each country had met its demand for intermediate and final goods global emissions would have been reduced by these 29 667 ktco2 of this phh 43 5 corresponds to imports of final goods 32 4 is related to imports of intermediate goods for the last stage of production the remainder 24 1 is caused by global value chains gvc between the countries only 3229 ktco2 of phh emissions are linked to domestic emissions from the sector in which the imports are produced the rest is explained by domestic linkages or successive rounds of domestic production which supports the existence of an indirect phh together with a trade growth in the last years the fall of trade barriers would have implied a transformation of global production chains that have boosted global emissions

reactive market power analysis using must run indices this paper investigates the issues of reactive power must run capacity in power system operations hence in electricity markets a must run index based method is proposed in the paper to measure the market power held by reactive power suppliers the nordic 32 bus system and the ieee 118 bus system are used to test the proposed method the market power holders of reactive power found using the proposed method are in accord with that found in the realistic nordic system operation and in the existing analysis of ieee 118 bus system the paper identifies through must run indices possible conditions that could lead to market power in the case of applying a bid structure within a market framework furthermore market structure drawbacks can cause the appearance of market power even in a topologically ideal system

input output analysis of co2 emissions embodied in trade competitive versus non competitive imports energy related co2 emissions embodied in international trade have been widely studied by researchers using the environmental input output framework in the literature two different approaches to deal with emissions embodied in a country s imports can be found one of the approaches is based on the assumption of competitive imports while the other is based on the assumption of non competitive imports we show that the implications of the results obtained using different imports assumptions are not the same the approach using the competitive imports assumption gives estimates larger than those obtained using the non competitive import assumption the differences between the two embodiment estimates come from the transition of embodied emissions in china s imports for intermediate consumption to those in china s exports this explains why relatively high estimates of co2 emissions embodied in china s exports are reported in several recent studies appearing in energy policy

price of oil and world inflation and recession new evidence shows that the commonly held assumption that the 1973 74 oil price increase directly affected us and world inflation and subsequent recession is consistent with the empirical data an extended lucas varro real income equation applied to the us united kingdom canada france germany italy japan and the netherlands gives mixed results partly because of price control and decontrol programs simulation experiments on the price control variable using us data finds strong effects further studies can be made when consistent international data is available for the 1979 80 period 18 references 4 figures 3 tables dck

a neoclassical model of unemployment and the business cycle this paper investigates a general equilibrium model of unemployment and the business cycle in which specialization of labor plays a key role a rational expectations equilibrium with fully flexible wages and prices can exhibit unemployment in which the marginal product of employed workers exceeds the reservation wage of those who are without jobs workers are unemployed either because they are in the process of relocating for a better job or because they are waiting for conditions in the depressed sector to improve moreover seemingly small disruptions in the supplies of primary commodities such as energy could be the source of fluctuations in aggregate employment and can exert surprisingly large effects on real output

an empirical examination of the pollution haven hypothesis for india towards a green leontief paradox using input output analysis we examine whether india can be regarded as a pollution haven we calculate the extra co2 so2 and nox emissions induced by 1 billion rupees of additional exports this is compared with the reduction of indian pollution caused by an import increase of equal size in contrast to what the pollution haven hypothesis states for developing countries we find that india considerably gains from extra trade comparing 1996 1997 with 1991 1992 the gains have only increased indicating that india has moved further away from being a pollution haven the outcome is robust to changes in the underlying assumptions

input output analysis of co2 emissions embodied in trade the effects of sector aggregation abstract energy related co2 emissions embodied in international trade have been widely studied by researchers using the environmental input output analysis framework it is well known that both sector aggregation and spatial aggregation affect the results obtained in such studies with regard to the latter past studies are often conducted at the national level irrespective of country or economy size for a large economy with the needed data studies may be conducted at different levels of spatial aggregation we examine this problem analytically by extending the work of su et al su b huang h c ang b w zhou p 2010 input output analysis of co2 emissions embodied in trade the effects of sector aggregation energy economics 32 1 166 175 on sector aggregation we present a numerical example using the data of china and by dividing the country into eight regions it is found that the results are highly dependent on spatial aggregation our study shows that for a large country like china it is meaningful to look into the effect of spatial aggregation

a reactive power capacity market using annual auctions this paper presents a new approach to design reactive power capacity markets under this approach annual auctions to procure reactive power capacity are conducted by the system operator two products are defined reactive power generation and absorption capacity which can be supplied by different independent var sources such as generators svcs capacitor banks and shunt reactors reactive power capacity is allocated using an optimization algorithm that matches capacity bids and system reactive power needs for peak and low demand hours the reactive power requirements are calculated taking into account system contingencies and the dynamic performance of the var sources under these situations another key proposal of the paper is the distribution of costs of the reactive power capacity market to the agents responsible for contingencies according to the use of the service by each market participant this remuneration approach provides fair and efficient economic signals to all market participants the applicability of the approach is illustrated with two case studies

what goes up recent trends in china s energy consumption since 1996 china s energy output has dropped by 17 while primary energy use has fallen by 4 driven almost entirely by shrinking output from coal mines and declining direct use since china is the world s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases it is important to understand the sources of this apparent transformation and whether it portends a permanent change in patterns of energy use this remarkable reversal of the long term expansion of energy use has occurred even as the economy has continued to grow albeit more slowly than in the early 1990s generation of electric power has risen implying a steep fall in end uses particularly in industry available information points to a variety of forces contributing to this phenomenon including rapid improvements in coal quality structural changes in industry shutdowns of factories in both the state owned and non state segments of the economy improvements in end use efficiency and greater use of gas and electricity in households a combination of slowing economic growth industrial restructuring broader economic system reforms and environmental and energy efficiency policies has apparently led to at least a temporary decline in and perhaps a long term reduction in the growth of energy use and therefore greenhouse gas emissions

the effect of trade between china and the uk on national and global carbon dioxide emissions we estimate the amount of carbon dioxide embodied in bi lateral trade between the uk and china in 2004 developing and applying the method of shui and harriss 2006 tile role of co2 embodiment in us china trade energy policy 34 4063 4068 the most recently available data on trade and co2 emissions have been updated and adjusted to calculate the co2 emissions embodied in the commodities traded between china and the uk it was found that through trade with china the uk reduced its co2 emissions by approximately 11 in 2004 compared with a non trade scenario in which the same type and volume of goods are produced in the uk in addition due to the greater carbon intensity and relatively less efficient production processes of chinese industry china uk trade resulted in an additional 117 mt of co2 to global co2 emissions in the same one year period compared with a non trade scenario in which the same type and volume of goods are produced in the uk this represents an additional 19 to the reported national co2 emissions of the uk 555 mt y in 2004 and 0 4 of global emissions these findings suggest that through international trade very significant environmental impacts can be shifted front one country to another and that international trade can but does not necessarily result in globally increased greenhouse gas emissions these results are additional to the environmental consequences of transporting goods which are not robustly quantified here c 2008 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

china s foreign trade and climate change a case study of co2 emissions abstract the globalization of trade has numerous environmental implications trade creates a mechanism for consumers to shift environmental pollution associated with their consumption to other countries carbon leakage exerts great influences on international trade and economy applying an input output approach the paper estimates the amount of carbon dioxide co2 embodied in china s foreign trade during 1997 2007 it is found that 10 03 26 54 of china s annual co2 emissions are produced during the manufacture of export goods destined for foreign consumers while the co2 emissions embodied in china s imports accounted for only 4 40 1997 and 9 05 2007 of that we also estimate that the rest of world avoided emitting 150 18 mt co2 in 1997 increasing to 593 mt in 2007 as a result of importing goods from china rather than manufacturing the same type and quantity of goods domestically during 1997 2007 the net additional global co2 emissions resulting from china s exports were 4894 mt then the paper divides the trade embodied emissions into scale composition and technical effect it was found that scale and composition effect increased the co2 emissions embodied in trade while the technical effect offset a small part of them finally its mechanism and policy implications are presented

oligopolistic competition of gencos in reactive power ancillary service provisions the need for a market based approach for reactive power procurement has been recognized by ferc due to the localized characteristic of reactive power regulatory mechanisms are necessary to mitigate the possibility of holding market power by generators the regulator is responsible for devising the regulatory mechanisms that provide incentives to generators to supply reactive power while preventing the abuse of market power this paper proposes a mathematical model to simulate the strategic behavior of generators supplying reactive power while considering the system operator s schedule the proposed method can be used by the regulator to simulate the market behavior in the reactive power supply we further study how regulatory policies affect the strategic behavior an alternative price cap method has been proposed and tested in the numerical example to mitigate the effect of strategic behavior of generators in reactive power procurement by the system operator the numerical examples are tested on the nordic 32 bus system

changing crude oil price effects on us agricultural employment the effect of changes in the price of crude oil on agricultural employment in the usa between 1947 and 1995 is investigated after reviewing previous assessments of the issue the existence of an empirical relationship between agricultural employment and crude oil price changes is established using granger causality subsequently the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before the measurable effects of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in agricultural employment are exhausted finally the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in agricultural employment and changes in the price of crude oil the percentage changes in expected net farm income realized technological innovation and the wage rate is studied

reactive power as an ancillary service this paper addresses the problem of reactive power procurement by an independent system operator iso in deregulated electricity markets a reactive bid structure is proposed in the context of a reactive power market based on the reactive power price offers and technical constraints involved in reactive power planning a two tier approach is developed to determine the most beneficial reactive power contracts for the iso the reactive capability of a generator and therefore the opportunity costs in providing reactive power is also included in the model uncertainty in reactive demand and in reactive bids of participating parties is incorporated through monte carlo simulations and the expected reactive power procurement plan for the iso is hence determined the cigre 32 bus network approximately representing the swedish system is used for the studies

oil price shocks stock market economic activity and employment in greece abstract using a multivariate vector autoregression var approach this paper attempts to shed light into the dynamic relationship among oil prices real stock prices interest rates real economic activity and employment for greece the empirical evidence suggests that oil price changes affect real economic activity and employment oil prices are important in explaining stock price movements stock returns do not lead to changes in real activity and employment

china s inter regional spillover of carbon emissions and domestic supply chains in this study we apply the inter regional input output model to explain the relationship between china s inter regional spillover of co2 emissions and domestic supply chains for 2002 and 2007 based on this model we propose alternative indicators such as the trade in co2 emissions co2 emissions in trade and the regional trade balances of co2 emissions our results do not only reveal the nature and significance of inter regional environmental spillover within china s domestic regions but also demonstrate how co2 emissions are created and distributed across regions via domestic and global production networks results show that a region sc o2 emissions depend on its intra regional production technology energy use efficiency as well as its position and participation degree in domestic and global supply chains 2013 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 1 a technical note on combining input output and ecological footprint analysis in recent years there have been a number of attempts to develop a more comprehensive approach to the issue of measuring resource use and or pollution generation embodied in trade flows including contributions that combine input output techniques and ecological footprint analysis in this two part paper we describe how to enumerate the resource and or pollution content of inter regional and inter national trade flows part 1 and we present a literature review of recent methodological and empirical developments part 2 it is straightforward in principle to extend the basic input output approach to capture international trade flows however in practice problems of data availability and compatibility and of computability of extended input output matrices mean that simplifying assumptions are generally applied but with the implications of these assumptions often not made fully explicit what appears to be absent from previous applications is an account of the analytical method by which ecological footprints should ideally be estimated in an international input output accounting analysis this allows an explicit analysis of the problems that prevent the application of the full method and identification of the most appropriate short cut methods in a transparent way the objective of this paper is to provide such an account

scale technique and composition effects in trade related carbon emissions in china this study applies structural decomposition analysis to evaluate the scale composition and technique effects of trade related carbon emissions in china mainland from 1987 to 2007 the initial findings indicate that the increasing magnitude of china s trade both in terms of the carbon emissions embodied in exports and the carbon emissions avoided via imports had large scale effects during the whole period the technique effect caused by changes in input mix sector energy intensity fuel mix and carbon coefficients effectively offset part of the scale effect during the entire period but failed to do so during some sub periods changes in trade composition caused a relative small increase in the carbon emissions created by exports but a relative small decrease in the carbon emissions avoided via imports during the whole period

relationship between oil prices interest rate and unemployment evidence from an emerging market abstract while the interrelation between oil price changes economic activity and employment is an important issue that has been studied mainly for developed countries little attention has been devoted to inquiries on fluctuations in the price of crude oil and its impact on employment for small open economies adopting an efficiency wage model for equilibrium employment that does not require any assumptions regarding labor supply this paper contributes to the literature by investigating the causality between unemployment and two input prices namely energy crude oil and capital real interest rate in an emerging market turkey for the period 2005 01 2009 08 applying a relatively new technique the toda yamamoto procedure we find that the real price of oil and interest rate improve the forecasts of unemployment in the long run this finding supports the hypothesis that labor is a substitute factor of production for capital and energy

inter industrial carbon emission transfers in china economic effect and optimization strategy abstract understanding inter industrial carbon emission transfers and their economic effect informs approaches to achieve emission reduction objectives and promote industrial economic development this paper applies input output theory to explore ways to optimize carbon emission transfers between industrial sectors first china s inter industrial carbon emission imports and exports were measured for years 2002 2005 2007 and 2010 next the economic effects of inter industrial carbon emission transfers were assessed finally strategies to optimize the carbon emission transfer structure were proposed with the goal of achieving a win win between industrial carbon emission reduction and economic development key study conclusions are as follows 1 inter industrial carbon emission imports and exports in china are significant and are increasing each year traditional energy industries have high carbon emission imports processing and manufacturing industries have high carbon emission exports and most light industries have relatively low levels of both carbon emission imports and exports 2 carbon emission transfer imports or exports can promote industrial development combining both imports and exports leads to variable economic effects within specific industries 3 to achieve the dual goals of carbon emission reduction and economic development four strategies are proposed to optimize carbon emission transfer structures in different industries

a three perspective view of greenhouse gas emission responsibilities in new zealand abstract while responsibility for the environmental impacts of production has been commonly assigned to producers production is driven by consumer demand and it is valid to question whether impacts should instead be assigned to consumers however in each of these approaches producers and consumers either bear the full burden of responsibility or none at all an example of this is the kyoto protocol where all greenhouse gas emissions are assigned to the producer and no consideration is given to where goods are finally consumed rather than taking the conventional producer or consumer responsibility approach a third perspective is possible in which responsibility is shared we use input output analysis to apply all three of these responsibility perspectives to new zealand s domestic greenhouse gas emissions our main findings from the shared responsibility approach are that new zealand producers are responsible for 44 of domestic emissions new zealand consumers take 28 and 27 are exported a shared responsibility approach appears to distribute the burden of responsibility and associated liability between parties more fairly and is likely to be more widely acceptable than pure producer or consumer perspectives

the effect of global oil price shocks on china s agricultural commodities abstract this paper studied the effect of global oil price shocks on agricultural commodities in china including strong wheat corn soybean bean pulp cotton and natural rubber we regarded oil price volatility process as a combination of continuous process and jump process we not only separated oil price shocks into positive and negative categories to identify different effects on agricultural commodities in continuous process but also investigated how jump behavior influenced these agricultural commodities we found that the oil price was characterized by volatility clustering and jump behavior at the same time oil price shocks had different effects on agricultural commodities in addition the shocks on most agricultural commodities were asymmetric only natural rubber was under influence of the jump intensity of the oil price in contrast to strong wheat corn soybean bean pulp and cotton

china s regional co2 emissions characteristics inter regional transfer and emission reduction policies abstract this paper analyzes the characteristics of china s regional co 2 emissions and effects of economic growth and energy intensity using panel data from 1997 to 2009 the results show that there are remarkable regional disparities among eastern central and western areas regional elasticities of per capita gdp and energy intensity on co 2 emissions which reflect the regional differences in economic development economy structure and restraining function of energy intensity decrease on the emission energy intensity reducing is more effective to emission abatement for provinces with higher elasticity of energy intensity but may not be significant for provinces with lower elasticity the inverse distribution of energy production and consumption regional unfairness caused by institutional factors like energy price and tax system result in inter regional co 2 emission transfer embodied in the power transmission the calculation indicates that the embodied emission transfer was gradually significant after 2003 from eastern area to the central and western areas especially energy production provinces in central area which leads to distortion on the emission and emission intensity the regional emission reduction targets and supporting policies should be customized and consistent with the actual situations rather than setting the same target for all the provinces

speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets a bayesian analysis this paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil corn and wheat futures prices from november 1998 to january 2009 model parameters are estimated using bayesian markov chain monte carlo methods speculation scalping and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established including mean reversion an asymmetry between returns and volatility volatility clustering and infrequent compound jumps we find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil corn and wheat markets after the fall of 2006 this can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production

quo vadis mrio methodological data and institutional requirements for multi region input output analysis abstract in order to understand wider sustainability impacts of consumption and to successfully promote and implement sustainable consumption and production policies there is a need to capture the whole life cycle impact of products and services across international supply chains multi region input output mrio databases are a well described and suitable foundation for global sustainability analyses addressing a wide range of policy and research questions in this paper we reflect on the reasons for the recent boom in mrio compilation summarise the current state of development and discuss future options for mrio analysis we list in detail the requirements for efficient and effective mrio research and propose systemic and institutional changes we deliberately try to go beyond existing ambitions for mrio compilation and thus intend to stimulate discussion and to lay out the options for the future of mrio research

the carbon content of japan us trade we analyze the greenhouse gas emissions embodied in trade between japan and the us extending the japanese government s linked japan us input output model to include carbon emission coefficients for each sector we estimate that in 1995 japan us trade reduced us industrial emissions by 14 6 million tons of co2 equivalent and increased emissions in japan by 6 7 million tons for a global savings of 7 9 million tons these quantities are less than one percent of each country s total emissions trade with the rest of the world reduced emissions by much larger amounts roughly four percent of each country s emissions the sectoral patterns of carbon intensity are strongly correlated between japan and the us in addition greater carbon intensity has a small but significantly positive effect on net exports policies that tax or otherwise regulate carbon emissions are needed to discourage this destructive route to competitiveness however the most important policy implication may be that us industry could cut its carbon emissions by more than half if it matched the environmental performance of industry in japan r 2007 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

the role of co2 embodiment in us china trade abstract this study examines the influence of us china trade on national and global emissions of carbon dioxide co2 the three basic questions are as follows 1 what amount of co2 emissions is avoided in the us by importing chinese goods 2 how much are co2 emissions in china increased as a result of the production of goods for export to the us and 3 what are the impacts of us china trade on global co2 emissions our initial findings reveal that during 1997 2003 1 us co2 emissions would have increased from 3 to 6 if the goods imported from china had been produced in the us 2 about 7 14 of china s current co2 emissions were a result of producing exports for us consumers and 3 us china trade has increased global co2 emissions by an estimated 720 million metric tons we suggest that the export of us technologies and expertise related to clean production and energy efficiency to china could be a win win strategy for both countries for reducing their trade imbalance and mitigating global co2 emissions improved international accounting methodologies for assigning responsibility for co2 emissions must be designed to account for the dynamic nature of international trade

localized reactive power markets using the concept of voltage control areas in this paper we present the design of a localized competitive market for reactive power ancillary services at the level of individual voltage control areas the concept of electrical distance has been used to identify the different voltage control areas within a power system the proposed reactive power market is settled on uniform price auction using a modified optimal power flow model uniform prices for various components of reactive power service are obtained for each voltage control area in the study cases described in the paper we examine whether such a localized reactive power market is more desirable than a common system wide reactive power market

energy and food security linkages through price volatility abstract this study examines the linkages between energy price and food prices over the period 2000 2016 by using a panel var model in the case of eight asian economies our results confirm that energy price oil price has a significant impact on food prices according to the results of impulse response functions agricultural food prices respond positively to any shock from oil prices our results show that there is a linkage between energy and food security through price volatility since inflation in oil price is harmful for food security it would be necessary to diversify the energy consumption in this sector from too much reliance on fossil fuels to an optimal combination of renewable and nonrenewable energy resources that will be in favor of not only the energy security by also the food security in addition the paper found that the impact of biofuel prices on food prices is statistically significant but explains less than 2 of the food price variance however by increasing the demand for biofuel there should be more concern about the global increase in agricultural commodities prices and endangering food security especially in vulnerable economies