the peak of oil production timings and market recognition abstract energy is essential for present societies in particular transportation systems depend on petroleum based fuels that world oil production is set to pass a peak is now a reasonably accepted concept although its date is far from consensual in this work we analyze the true expectations of the oil market participants about the future availability of this fundamental energy source we study the evolution through time of the curves of crude oil futures prices and we conclude that the market participants among them the crude oil producers already expect a near term peak of oil production this agrees with many technical predictions for the date of peak production including our own that point to peak dates around the end of the present decade if this scenario is confirmed it can cause serious social and economical problems because societies will have little time to perform the necessary adjustments

supply security and short run capacity markets for electricity the creation of electricity markets has raised the fundamental question as to whether markets create the right incentives for the provision of the reserves needed to maintain supply security in the short run or whether some form of regulation is required in some states in the us electricity distributors have been made responsible for providing such reserves by contracting capacity in excess of their forecasted peak demand the so called installed capacity markets provide one means of contracting reserves and are the subject of this paper under monopoly as well as under perfect competition we identify firms short run opportunity costs of committing resources in the capacity market and the costs of inducing full capacity commitment the long run investment problem is not considered from a welfare viewpoint we also compare the desirability of providing reserves either through capacity markets or through the demand side i e power curtailments at the optimum capacity obligations equal peak demand plus expected outages and the capacity deficiency rate which serves as a price cap is set at firms opportunity costs of providing full capacity commitment

on the current account biofuels link in emerging and developing countries do oil price fluctuations matter abstract many developed countries promote the use of biofuels for environmental concerns leading to a rise in the price of agricultural commodities utilized in their production such environmental policies have major effects on the economy of emerging and developing countries whose activity is highly dependent on agricultural commodities involved in biofuel production this paper tackles this issue by examining the price impact of biofuels on the current account for a panel of 16 developing and emerging countries and the potential nonlinear effect exerted by the price of oil on this relationship relying on the estimation of panel smooth transition regression models we show that positive shocks in the price of biofuels lead to a current account improvement for agricultural commodity exporters resp producers only when the price of oil is below 45 resp 56 us dollars per barrel when the price of oil exceeds these thresholds the effect of fluctuations in the price of biofuels on the current account tends to weaken and become non significant under these conditions our findings indicate that for agricultural commodity exporters which are also oil importers the current account is pulled by two opposite forces making its overall reaction modest or even nil

can poor consumers pay for energy and water an affordability analysis for transition countries low income households spend a substantial share of their income on utility services such as electricity heating and water the difficulty of these socially vulnerable consumers to absorb further price increases is often used as an argument against tariff reform however detailed quantitative information on the affordability of tariff adjustments for low income consumers is actually quite scarce much of the available information is based on households this paper takes a more detailed look at the affordability of electricity district heating and water for low income consumers in transition countries while the available data are incomplete the paper finds that affordability is a problem for low income consumers in most countries in particular in the water sector and in the commonwealth of independent states cis the affordability consequences of tariff reform ultimately depend on the speed of tariff adjustments relative to the growth in household income the level of tariffs needed for cost recovery the level of effective tariffs at the outset tariffs adjusted for non payment and the demand response to the tariff increase the paper finds that delaying tariff reform by a few years makes little difference to affordability constraints and may therefore not be an effective way to mitigate the social impact of utility reform

the optimal performance of the global firm formalizing and extending the integration responsiveness framework with the increasing globalization of business there has been growing interest in how to create and manage a successful international enterprise although researchers and practitioners have grappled with the issue of globalization for some time there is no one model that encompasses the range of phenomena we observe in the global economy nor have those models that do exist been precisely formalized this paper provides an expanded approach to thinking about the organizational forms and linkages that exist in international business operations building on the popular integrationresponsiveness framework of international strategic orientation we develop a more expansive approach that is better able to account for the diversity of organizational forms and strategic choices open to managers by adding a third set of environmental pressures incorporating the beliefs of managers and by employing the idea of efficient frontiers we reformulate the integration responsiveness framework making it more consistent with modern economic models of the firm our integration responsiveness completeness irc model argues that global firms can respond to these fundamental and competing pressures by configuring themselves in a variety of ways rather than normatively prescribing that the transnational form is optimal in addition our model has methodological ramifications its formal structure suggests that empirical techniques that focus on the best rather than average performance are necessary to adequately investigate the performance differences among alternative organizational forms this may explain the paradoxical lack of empirical support for a link between organizational form and performance

security of supply and regulation of energy networks abstract in recent years the security of energy supplies has re emerged as a central issue in the energy policy arena in the uk and elsewhere this re emergence takes place against a backdrop of increased liberalisation of the energy markets so that security of supply needs to be revisited within this context security of supply is multifaceted but is often discussed in terms of physical availability of energy sources and their commodity price risk this paper discusses the relationship between security of supply and network regulation that is how the energy networks and appropriate regulation of them can contribute to security of supply in liberalised energy sectors energy networks are predominantly natural monopolies and as a result are generally subject to regulatory oversight we discuss a range of issues and trends that pose challenges and opportunities to network regulation and which call for new and innovative measures the paper identifies a number of areas where network regulation can play a significant role in increasing the security of supply of future energy systems

intraindustry structure and the ease of strategic change there has been considerable recent work in industrial organization emphasizing the importance of group stratification within industries the thrust of this literature is that in empirical work and in particular in investigating public policy problems differences across firms within an industry may be crucial this paper is intended as a contribution to the empirical literature of group structures in this paper i examine patterns of strategic group membership in a number of industries and analyze changes in the strategies used by firms in particular i provide a series of rather simple exploratory tests of the importance of intraindustry strategic differences in a number of industries

measuring the energy security implications of fossil fuel resource concentration abstract economic assessments of the welfare effects of energy insecurity are typically uncertain and fail to provide clear guidance to policy makers as a result governments have had little analytical support to complement expert judgment in the assessment of energy security this is likely to be inadequate when considering multiple policy goals and in particular the intersections between energy security and climate change mitigation policies this paper presents an alternative approach which focuses on gauging the causes of energy insecurity as a way to assist policy making the paper focuses on the energy security implications of fossil fuel resource concentration and distinguishes between the price and physical availability components of energy insecurity it defines two separate indexes the energy security price index espi based on the measure of market concentration in competitive fossil fuel markets and the energy security physical availability index espai based on the measure of supply flexibility in regulated markets the paper illustrates the application of espi and espai with two case studies france and the united kingdom looking at the evolution of both indexes to 2030

oil vulnerability index of oil importing countries abstract this paper assesses the relative oil vulnerability of 26 net oil importing countries for the year 2004 on the basis of various indicators the ratio of value of oil imports to gross domestic product gdp oil consumption per unit of gdp gdp per capita and oil share in total energy supply ratio of domestic reserves to oil consumption exposure to geopolitical oil market concentration risks as measured by net oil import dependence diversification of supply sources political risk in oil supplying countries and market liquidity the approach using the principal component technique has been adopted to combine these individual indicators into a composite index of oil vulnerability such an index captures the relative sensitivity of various economies towards developments of the international oil market with a higher index indicating higher vulnerability the results show that there are considerable differences in the values of individual indicators of oil vulnerability and overall oil vulnerability index among the countries both inter and intraregional

strategic group formation and performance the case of the u s pharmaceutical industry 1963 1982 the focus of this paper is on three major questions 1 what is the theoretical rationale for the strategic group concept 2 does strategic group membership have performance implications and 3 are strategic groups and membership in strategic groups stable characteristics of industries a statistical procedure is proposed to longitudinally identify strategic groups the empirical setting is the u s pharmaceutical industry over the period 1963 82 while performance differences are found in terms of market share profitability differences between groups are not observed neither are differences found in terms of risk and risk adjusted performance these results are attributed to the existence of performance variation within each strategic group a dynamic model of competitive repositioning is proposed which helps integrate the findings from the study

evaluating energy security in the asia pacific towards a more comprehensive approach the energy security conundrum how to equitably provide available affordable reliable efficient and environmentally benign energy services is a technology and policy challenge perhaps unlike any other the recent article on an energy security in the asia pacific by vlado vivoda is an excellent starting point for how to best capture the unique energy security challenges facing the region this article builds on vivoda s work but also points out some shortcomings with his analysis

energy security and renewable energy deployment in the eu liaisons dangereuses or virtuous circle abstract a large body of literature estimates the effect of energy security drivers on renewable energy deployment using import dependence as a proxy for energy security which is an approach that ignores the potential effect of other energy security strategies such as the diversification of energy sources using panel data for the energy sector across 21 eu member states we investigate the effect of different energy security concepts on the development of renewable energies we compare the results of applying different energy security indicators including the ones used in eu energy policymaking unlike previous studies this study reports a long term relationship between energy security and renewable deployment our findings suggest that the relationship between energy security policies and renewable energy sources res deployment is far from straightforward and depends on the chosen energy security strategy which is usually linked to different energy security conceptualizations our primary findings confirm i that res deployment is a consequence of a combination of energy security strategies including environmental concerns rather than being solely caused by a shift towards more sustainable energy policies and ii that among the different energy security strategies the diversification of energy sources through renewable energy deployment is a more coherent strategy than using res to reduce dependency

defining energy security takes more than asking around abstract in undetermined the recent contribution by benjamin sovacool proposes 20 dimensions and 320 indicators of energy security in asia however the method for identifying these dimensions and indicators 64 semi structured interviews has three shortcomings first asian policy makers responsible for energy security are absent from the pool of respondents dominated by academics second no prioritization or contextualization of energy security concerns is attempted leading to an excessively long generic list third no disagreements between the interviewed experts are accounted for future attempts to define energy security based on perceptions should involve relevant social actors include mechanisms for discriminating between primary and secondary concerns and find ways to constructively report on disagreements less

board structure and firm technical efficiency evidence from canadian state owned enterprises abstract the objective of the study is to analyze the board performance relationship for a group of 14 canadian soes this context is unique because soes do not have major control devices other than the board as the interaction effect if any between the board and other corporate governance structures is expected to be low we do not have to fully control for the potential impact of different control devices or to disentangle them completely from influencing board composition the performance is also measured using data envelopment analysis dea a linear programming method used for the first time in this research area as such this study contributes to the operational research literature while applying dea method to untraditional fields of research the results from the multivariate analysis suggest that board size and board independence are positively related to firm technical efficiency only when soes are exposed to market discipline in other words product market competition is a precondition for boards to be effective

quantifying the supplier portfolio diversity of embodied energy strategic implications for strengthening energy resilience this paper investigates energy resilience of countries by quantifying the supplier diversification of both direct and embodied energy import in particular we quantify two approaches to diversify a country s supplier portfolio by lowering the dependency on each supplier portfolio diversification and by having embodied energy suppliers that are different from its direct energy suppliers portfolio differentiation we examine possibilities for strategic utilization of embodied energy trade to compensate for low diversity of direct energy trade for three types of fossil resources coal oil and gas we find that the diversity of embodied energy import is much greater than that of direct energy import of the three energy resources coal enables countries to adopt portfolio diversification and portfolio differentiation more than gas and oil our results suggest embodied energy can be considered as a transfer of energy resources across national borders that can directly benefit from the diversity of the world energy production by skipping the limited diversity of the world energy export

chinese energy investments in europe an analysis of policy drivers and approaches abstract enhancing the understanding of china eu energy relations the article examines chinese energy investments in europe from 2008 to 2015 and analyzes the energy interests and policy approaches underpinning them analysis of this data shows that within the eu 30 chinese investments largely focused on the oil and gas sector especially through the acquisition of company shares chinese energy investments in europe reflect a clear political and commercial strategy that addresses the prc s need to balance supply chain security of fossil fuels environmentally friendlier energy production and use as well as to enhance the market position and energy industrial capabilities of chinese state owned or state supervised energy companies based on a comprehensive set of domestic incentives for international investment the chinese penetration of the european energy sector is embedded within two levels of political cooperation the first level revolves around bilateral investment agreements between china and 27 eu member states on the second level china and the eu have established a variety of formats that guide their energy cooperation the conclusion of the proposed bilateral investment agreement between the prc and the eu would create a uniform investment environment across the continent and facilitate mutual economic benefits for both parties

on measuring energy poverty in indian households summary the relationship between energy and poverty is obvious and goes both ways recognizing this this paper provides a short overview of different approaches to measuring energy poverty it then presents a novel two dimensional measure of energy poverty and energy distribution that combines the elements of access to different energy types and quantity of energy consumed an assessment of the extent of energy poverty and changes in energy distribution pattern are analyzed by applying this measure to indian household survey data for 1983 2000 the analysis shows a significant reduction in the level of energy poverty and a rapidly developing subcontinent the new measure is a good complement to conventional monetary measures and is general enough to be applied to other developing countries

evaluating energy security in the asia pacific region a novel methodological approach this paper establishes an energy security assessment instrument based on a new and expanded conceptualisation of energy security the instrument is a systematic interrogative tool for evaluating energy security of individual states or regions it consists of eleven broad energy security dimensions associated with the current global energy system these energy security dimensions take into account numerous quantitative and qualitative attributes of each country s energy security and policy and include both traditional energy security concerns and many new factors such as environmental socio cultural and technological another dimension largely absent from previous analyses is the existence of and the issues addressed in energy security policy in each country this instrument serves as an assessment system with which to evaluate energy security in the asia pacific region the existing studies on energy security in the asia pacific region suffer from serious limitations no study to date examines regional energy security policies by adopting a more comprehensive energy security definition as a starting point most studies also focus on a single country or issue even if they examine energy security in major regional economies they lack critical comparative analysis the instrument is valuable as it may be utilised to draw a comprehensive map of regional energy security situation which can also include comparative analysis of energy security characteristics across the asia pacific region ultimately it may be utilised to set up a framework for improved regional energy cooperation with the aim of providing regional leaders with a blueprint for improving regional energy security and policy

linking consumer energy efficiency with security of supply most modern energy policies seek to achieve systematic ongoing incremental increases in consumer energy efficiency since this contributes to improved security of supply favourable environmental outcomes and increased economic efficiency yet realised levels of efficiency are typically well below the most cost effective equilibrium due to variety of behavioural and organisational barriers which are often linked to information constraints in addition efficient users are normally unrewarded for collective benefits to system security and to the environment thus reducing the incentives for energy consumers to invest in efficiency improvements this paper examines the dichotomies and symmetries between supply and demand side solutions to energy security concerns and reviews opportunities to overcome barriers to improved consumer efficiency a security market is identified as a mechanism to promote both demand and supply side investments that support electricity system security such a market would assist in setting the optimal quantity of reserves while achieving an efficient balance between supply and demand side initiatives it would also help to smooth overall investment throughout the energy system by encouraging incremental approaches such as distributed generation and demand side alternatives where they provide competitive value although the discussion is applicable to energy systems in general it focuses primarily on electricity in new zealand

assessing the energy vulnerability case of industrialised countries the emergence of new big consumer countries on the energy markets and the perspective of oil and gas depletion at the end of the current century raise the concerns about fair distribution of the remaining resources for the common and sustainable wellbeing of the mankind high volatility of energy prices discourages the investment and delays the energy technology transition voluntary measures are needed mainly in industrialised countries in order to develop alternative and sustainable energy sources to enable technology transfer towards emerging and developing countries and to avoid struggle for energy procurement in this paper a composite index of energy demand supply weaknesses is defined as a proxy of energy vulnerability the proposed index is based on several indicators such as energy intensity oil and gas import dependency co2 content of primary energy supply electricity supply weaknesses and non diversity in transport fuels the assessment of this composite index for selected industrialised countries is discussed as well as the sensitivity to various factors

diversity and security in uk electricity generation the influence of low carbon objectives abstract we explore the relationship between low carbon objectives and the strategic security of electricity in the context of the uk electricity system we consider diversity of fuel source mix to represent one dimension of security robustness against interruptions of any one source and apply two different diversity indices to the range of electricity system scenarios produced by the uk government and independent researchers our results show that low carbon objectives are uniformly associated with greater long term diversity in uk electricity generation with reference to data on wind generation we also consider the impact of source variability on a second dimension of security the reliability of generation availability we conclude that this does not undermine our fundamental conclusion that low carbon scenarios are associated with greater strategic security of supply in uk electricity we discuss reasons for this result explore sensitivities and briefly discuss possible policy instruments associated with diversity and their limitations

exploring public perceptions of energy security risks in the uk along with climate change and affordability concerns about energy security are key drivers behind proposals for major energy system change in the uk and numerous other countries unlike climate change we know very little about how the public thinks and feels about this aspect of sustainability and energy policy beyond engaging critically with conceptual and theoretical discussions empirical data from two surveys cardiff postal survey n 520 online uk survey n 499 using a ten item energy security scale are presented and discussed here we show that aspects of energy security are certainly of concern to the uk public with particularly high concern around dependence on fossil fuels imports and relatively lower expressed concern for actual disruption of energy supply however public concerns around energy security are only emerging and likely to change depending on the context in which it is discussed e g in comparison to climate change in addition findings from public interviews are used to further contextualise the survey findings showing unfamiliarity among the uk public with regards to the term energy security we discuss implications and further work that would be useful for understanding public perceptions in more depth

measuring energy security can the united states achieve oil independence stochastic simulation of the direct economic costs of oil dependence in an uncertain future is proposed as a useful metric of oil dependence the market failure from which these costs arise is imperfect competition in the world oil market chiefly as a consequence of the use of market power by the organization of the petroleum exporting countries opec cartel oil dependence costs can be substantial it is estimated that oil dependence costs to the us economy in 2008 will exceed 500 billion other costs such as military expenditures or foreign policy constraints are deemed to be largely derivative of the actual or potential economic costs of oil dependence the use of quantifiable economic costs as a security metric leads to a measurable definition of oil independence or oil security which can be used to test the ability of specific policies to achieve oil independence in an uncertain future

ena based evaluation of energy supply security comparison between the chinese crude oil and natural gas supply systems abstract energy has become a scarce global strategic resource and energy supply security is receiving increasing attention a common evaluation platform is necessary to systematically understand the supply security levels of different energy sources and help make the national energy strategy ecological network analysis ena is thus regarded as a useful common tool to systematically simulate evaluate and compare the supply security for different energy sources when considering the fact that modern energy systems have formed a complex global energy network through extensive energy trading based on the established ena platform we evaluated and compared china s crude oil and natural gas supply security from 2000 to 2012 to this end we assessed the overall security level investigated the relationship among different compartments within the network system determined the system s structure and analyzed the system s properties it was found that the chinese crude oil supply security level was higher than that of the natural gas supply and that the crude oil supply system was more mature in terms of multiple properties suggestions are proposed to improve the chinese energy supply security based on further scenario analysis including increasing domestic energy production controlling energy consumption diversifying foreign supply sources and strengthening the strategic reserve the ena based common platform can be used for the systematic evaluation and improvement of energy supply security and further support national energy policymaking for both developed and developing countries both energy importers and exporters

resilience and electricity systems a comparative analysis electricity systems have generally evolved based on the natural resources available locally few metrics exist to compare the security of electricity supply of different countries despite the increasing likelihood of potential shocks to the power system like energy price increases and carbon price regulation this paper seeks to calculate a robust measure of national power system resilience by analysing each step in the process of transformation from raw energy to consumed electricity countries with sizeable deposits of mineral resources are used for comparison because of the need for electricity intensive metals processing we find that shifts in electricity intensive industry can be predicted based on countries power system resilience

a framework to evaluate security of supply in the electricity sector security of electricity supply soes has become a major concern for regulators and policymakers over the last decade however most work focusses either more generally on energy security or on a single fuel we develop a comprehensive but flexible framework to assess the soes for a single jurisdiction taking into the account the specificities of electricity this framework has two aims i provide a snapshot of the situation to understand current weaknesses and determine what actions are required ii capture the evolution over time to evaluate progress and identify potential problems before they materialise the framework based on an extensive literature review consists of twelve dimensions that are critical for soes we develop metrics that capture the state and evolution of each dimension this framework is intended to be a management information tool for all stakeholders aimed at organising data and structuring its analysis to enable monitoring the evolution of the soes while also functioning as an early warning system by flagging potential future problems

bank productivity and performance groups a decomposition approach based upon the luenberger productivity indicator abstract the purpose of this paper is twofold first in the framework of the strategic groups literature it analyzes changes in productivity and efficiency of spanish private and savings banks over an eight year period 1998 2006 second by adapting the decomposition of the malmquist productivity indices suggested by fare et al 1994 it proposes similar components decomposing the luenberger productivity indicator initially productivity is decomposed into technological and efficiency changes thereafter this efficiency change is decomposed into pure efficiency scale and congestion changes empirical results demonstrate that productivity improvements are partially due to technological innovation furthermore it is shown how the competition between private and savings banks develops in terms of the analyzed productivity and efficiency components while private banks enjoy better efficiency change savings banks contribute more to technological progress consequently the luenberger components are used as cluster analysis inputs thus economic interpretations of the resulting performance groups are made via key differences in productivity components finally following the strategic groups literature supplementary insights are gained by linking these performance groups with banking ratios

energy security and sustainability in northeast asia abstract energy security has typically to those involved in making energy policy meant mostly securing access to oil and other fossil fuels with increasingly global diverse energy markets however and increasingly transnational problems resulting from energy transformation and use old energy security rationales are less salient and other issues including climate change and other environmental economic and international considerations are becoming increasingly important as a consequence a more comprehensive operating definition of energy security is needed along with a workable framework for analysis of which future energy paths or scenarios are likely to yield greater energy security in a broader more comprehensive sense work done as a part of the nautilus institute s pacific asia regional energy security pares project developed a broader definition of energy security and described an analytical framework designed to help to compare the energy security characteristics both positive and negative of different quantitative energy paths as developed using software tools such as the leap long range energy alternatives planning system

energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices taiwan energy supply structure case study abstract facing the risk and uncertainty inherent in social and economic development many countries have adopted an energy supply diversification strategy in their energy security policy to control the energy import risk and cost to ensure that sufficient energy can be obtained at an affordable price level diversification helps the energy system respond to external changes and shocks diversification can also lessen the vulnerability of a single energy source to supply shocks and the market power of various energy supply sources this study develops the diversity reliability index and co vary diversity reliability index based on the hirschman herfindahl and shannon wiener indices investigates the contribution of different energy sources to the energy system and analyzes the covariance between various energies and their impacts on energy security to determine the impact of energy diversity in reducing the risk of energy supply shortages and cost fluctuations

a quantitative analysis of low carbon society lcs measures in thai industrial sector abstract energy is a commodity which impacts heavily upon the competitiveness of a country in the global scale thus nations have begun to understand that utilization of energy affects its economic performance in recent times there has been a drive for global awareness on low carbon society lcs measures where carbon mitigation is at the forefront thus this paper analyses the lcs measures for the thai industrial sector thai industrial sector is the second highest co 2 emitting end use sector and contributes approximately 30 to the national income of thailand the total co 2 emission from end use sectors in 2010 was 119 mton co 2 and approximately 38 constituted industrial sector emissions the primary objective of this research study is to quantitatively analyse the carbon mitigation possible in the thai industrial sector and the co benefits which accrue along with mitigation in various policy pathway scenarios thai industrial sector was modeled using asia pacific integrated model aim enduse three groups of scenarios under lcs emission tax and reduction target principles were modeled along with the bau case results show that lcs scenarios are capable of cumulative mitigation of approximately 35 by 2050 in comparison to the bau case and the predominant technologies are the 2nd generation biomass and the ccs technology the emission tax scenarios where tax rates of 50 100 200 and 500 usd t co 2 were enforced show a maximum of 55 cumulative mitigation by 2050 even though this reduction is higher than the lcs scenarios there is no shift to long term renewable or sustainable technologies in the emission tax scenarios the same applies to reduction target scenarios as well the co benefits which were measured along the themes of energy security and local air pollutant mitigation show maximum benefits accruing to the lcs scenarios where renewable fuel share increases whilst primary energy intensity and carbon intensity decreases the lcs scenarios also show a mitigation of local air pollutants such as so 2 and particulate matter

low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy the aim enduse modelling approach abstract the transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward thailand s land transport sector is modelled using the aim enduse which is a recursive dynamic optimization model based on bottom up modelling principle the travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel the objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society lcs measures and emission tax et two scenario clusters are devised along with the bau case the lcs scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are lcs l lcs m and lcs h the emission tax et cluster has four scenarios where the taxes of 50 100 200 and 500 usd t co2 are implemented along with this the marginal abatement costs mac of the counter measures cms and the co benefits in terms of energy security productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed results show that lcs scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 mt co2 cumulatively from 2010 to 2050 in terms of macs new vehicles play a pivotal role along with hybrid vehicles the average abatement cost aac assessment shows that the aac of lcs h scenario is in the order of 100 usd t co2 all the lcs and et scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity there is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well

the demand for beer wine and spirits a systemwide analysis the systemwide approach to the analysis of consumer demand considers the multivariate structure of the problem in which the consumer allocates his income to all goods simultaneously this approach combines the theory of the consumer with empirical analysis and has enjoyed much popularity over the past decade for surveys of these developments see brown and deaton 1972 phlips 1974 powell 1974 theil 1975 76 1980 barten 1977 and theil and clements 1980 most previous applications of the systemwide approach have used national accounts commodity groups food clothing housing and so on for many business and government policy purposes however these groups are much too broad for example to analyze the effects on consumption of all but the simplest changes in indirect taxes we would need considerably more disaggregation similarly market researchers need to analyze demand at the individual product level for purposes of forecasting and formulating pricing and other policies the objective of this paper is to use the consumption of beer wine and spirits to illustrate how the approach can be apthis paper illustrates how the systemwide approach to consumer demand can be extended so that it can be applied to narrowly defined commodity groups we use the consumption of beer wine and spirits to show how the approach can be applied to estimate income and price elasticities of demand when the consumer s utility function is appropriately separable in alcoholic beverages and all other goods it is possible to confine our attention to the three beverages and ignore all other goods we use the demand model for a number of simulations designed to analyze the rapid growth of wine consumption we are indebted to john davis peter goldschmidt and kal stening for excellent research assistance to michael wohlgenant and henri theil for helpful comments and discussion and to the new south wales drug and alcohol authority for their partial financial support of this research

european climate energy security nexus a model based scenario analysis in this research we provide an overview of the climate security nexus in the european energy sector through a model based analysis of scenarios produced with the poles model the scenarios describe the consequences of different degrees of ghg emission constraint at world level but also for a case where europe adopts an ambitious climate policy while the rest of the world sticks to much more modest abatement policies the analysis shows that under such stringent climate policies europe may benefit of a significant double dividend first in its capacity to develop a new cleaner and climate friendlier energy model and second in a lower vulnerability to potential price or supply shocks on the international energy markets

energy security externalities and policies abstract in this paper we review conceptual arguments and empirical evidence related to two potential sources of market failure involving energy security in doing so we consider several questions involving the distinction between externality and market inefficiency and the distinction between market failures that are amenable or not amenable to correction given our current understanding of the workings of an economy several conclusions follow from our analysis regarding the potential sources of market failure and possible remedies the problem of excess wealth transfer from exporter market power may be an issue but current knowledge of oil market behaviour is too weak to support a strong conclusion other supposed costs of oil import dependence also are not well grounded including externalities related to the vulnerability of the economy to energy price shocks

indicators of energy security in industrialised countries energy security has become a popular catch phrase both in the scientific arena as well as in the political discussion yet in general the applied concepts of energy security are rather vague this paper sheds some light on concepts and indicators of energy security first we conceptually discuss the issue of energy supply security and explain why it is not to handle by one science alone and what economics may contribute in order to structure the topic after providing a brief survey of existing attempts to define or measure energy security we suggest an additional dimension along which indicators of energy security may be classified ex post and ex ante indicators finally we illustrate our concept on the basis of several simplified indicators while ex post indicators are mostly based on price developments ex ante indicators are to a greater extent aimed at illustrating potential problems our illustration suggests that it is worthwhile to take into account the market structure along with the political stability of exporting countries

a variant of the hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts abstract in recent years the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the hubbert peak theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in world oil production in this paper a model that attempts to contribute in this regard is presented it is based on a variant of the well known hubbert curve in addition the sum of multiple hubbert curves two cycles is used to provide a better fit for the historical data on oil production crude and natural gas liquid ngl taking into consideration three possible scenarios for oil reserves this approach allowed us to forecast when peak oil production referring to crude oil and ngl should occur in particular by assuming a range of 2250 3000 gigabarrels gb for ultimately recoverable conventional oil our predictions foresee a peak between 2009 and 2021 at 29 3 32 1 gb year

identifying the main uncertainty drivers of energy security in a low carbon world the case of europe abstract this analysis contributes to recent efforts to better understand the evolution of energy security in a low carbon world our objective was to assess how energy security may change over the course of the century and to what extent these changes depend on the uncertainty of the factors that drive the evolution of energy systems including future technologies improved energy efficiency fossil fuel resources and markets and economic growth to this end we focused on europe and on a set of energy security indicators based on three perspectives sovereignty robustness and resilience a database of scenarios allowed us to account for the large uncertainties surrounding the determinants of future energy systems we then analyzed the way energy security indicators evolve over time and how their trajectories vary across scenarios we identified the indicators that vary the most between scenarios i e the indicators whose future evolution is the most uncertain for these indicators we performed an analysis of variance to estimate the contribution of each driver to the uncertainty of the indicators the paper shows that the european double target of significantly decreasing co 2 emissions and increasing the security of the supply of energy may be difficult to reach nevertheless some levers could facilitate the transition to a low carbon society while improving energy security or by limiting its degradation the results emphasize not only the importance of policies in favor of low or zero carbon technologies in power generation but also the differences in their contributions to the complete uncertainty of the indicators policies promoting energy efficiency also play a role but only in the resilience of tpes these policies are thus important levers for mitigating the negative impacts of climate policies on energy security

the methodological challenges of creating a comprehensive energy security index this short article defends the methods utilized in creating an energy security index it explains why an energy security index is needed and then justifies research interviews as a data collection tool next it responds to the three strands of professor cherp s critique before offering a few general conclusions for readers concerned about energy security

oligopsony power asset specificity and hold up evidence from the broiler industry in this article we look for empirical evidence of hold up in broiler industry production contracts by using the cross sectional national survey of broiler growers first we focus on the problem of under investment and hypothesize that the degree of agent s grower s under investment systematically depends on the principal s integrator s market power and the level of asset specificity second we provide an indirect test of hold up by looking at the grower contract payoffs as a function of the frequency of the housing facilities upgrade requests and the principal s market power the results show moderate empirical support for the presence of hold up

russian gas price reform and the eu russia gas relationship incentives consequences and european security of supply in order to provide a comprehensive picture on the relationship between russia and the eu the focus should be on both the external energy relationship as well as russia s internal organization this paper sets out to do this by combining both strands of research in order to arrive at recommendations for europe on the way to adjust its energy policy towards russia the emphasis is on whether or not russia should impose unified gas pricing main conclusions are that the perceived advantages of unified russian gas pricing to russia as well as europe are in fact overstated and that eu security of supply might worsen under unified gas prices three policy recommendations are that eu policy should 1 more explicitly acknowledge the interdependence between russia and europe 2 not push russia towards unified gas pricing and 3 not take for granted any increase in russian exports flowing to europe

differing cultures of energy security an international comparison of public perceptions this study reviews how energy users perceive the importance of energy security dimensions it asks how does the sense of energy security vary with culture its primary source of data is a summary of survey distributed in eight languages to almost 2500 respondents in brazil china denmark germany india kazakhstan japan papua new guinea saudi arabia singapore and the united states it utilizes an energy literacy test in denmark as a secondary data tool the survey results are used to test nine hypotheses about national economic political professional and epistemic cultures the study concludes by affirming the complexity of energy security as a cultural topic by emphasizing how answers among respondents tended to converge more than diverge and by calling for further research

energy security under de carbonization scenarios an assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices abstract how would a low carbon energy transformation affect energy security this paper proposes a framework to evaluate energy security under long term energy scenarios generated by integrated assessment models energy security is defined as low vulnerability of vital energy systems delineated along geographic and sectoral boundaries the proposed framework considers vulnerability as a combination of risks associated with inter regional energy trade and resilience reflected in energy intensity and diversity of energy sources and technologies we apply this framework to 43 scenarios generated by the message model as part of the global energy assessment including one baseline scenario and 42 low carbon scenarios where the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2 c over the pre industrial level by and large low carbon scenarios are associated with lower energy trade and higher diversity of energy options especially in the transport sector a few risks do emerge under low carbon scenarios in the latter half of the century they include potentially high trade in natural gas and hydrogen and low diversity of electricity sources trade is typically lower in scenarios which emphasize demand side policies as well as non tradable energy sources nuclear and renewables while diversity is higher in scenarios which limit the penetration of intermittent renewables

evaluating energy security of resource poor economies a modified principle component analysis approach abstract this study proposes to aggregately measure energy security performance with the principal component analysis in its application of the methodology to four resource poor yet economically advanced island economies in east asia singapore south korea japan and taiwan this study establishes a novel framework to conceptualize energy security the framework incorporates three dimensions vulnerability efficiency and sustainability three indicators being allocated to each dimension the study finds that all the three dimensions are critical for the resource poor economies but have different weights in each of them an urgent task for these four economies is to implement energy efficiency and conservation measures liberalization of electricity sector can be a helpful tool to reduce energy consumption and increase efficiency all of them have been committed to promoting renewable energy development which shall be further expanded in these economies

innovative strategic groups in multinational industries abstract differences in innovative strategies between groups of domestic and multinational enterprises are analyzed within a two stage game model that incorporates the asymmetries in transaction costs between the two species of enterprises nash and cooperative behaviour is shown to result in different equilibrium r d strategies with the multinational companies doing typically more r d for larger markets and domestic companies focusing on specific market segments survey data from companies operating in eleven high tech multinational industries in belgium provide support for these strategic differences and show how they are related to company performance

normative observations on the international value added chain and strategic groups the formulation of strategy can be fruitfully viewed as placing bets on certain markets and on certain links of the value added chain the key to understanding a global strategy is to locate how competitive positions in one national market change the economics for entry into other countries and into other product lines this article argues that global strategies succeed by creating certain economies along and the between value added chains and by designing marketing programs that adapt products to national needs and yet exploit these upstream economies two major conclusions are that a company can compete in different strategic groups across countries and that a hallmark feature of a global strategy is the creation of operational flexibility to benefit from uncertainty

conceptual proposals for measuring the impact of international regimes on energy security abstract the paper proposes two concepts to assess the effect of international regimes on energy security existing indicators focus mainly on state level factors excluding international influences international relation scholars on the other hand see a clear connection between international regimes and stable energy relations international regimes stabilise energy relations by providing frameworks for negotiations defining controlling and sanctioning compliance and allowing the actors to engage in package deals the researcher needs to include these factors in a complete assessment of political energy security risks as first step the paper uses the effectiveness of control mechanisms as basis for such consideration it refers specifically to international arbitration as the most important control mechanism in international energy relations the simplest measurement option is the share of a county s energy imports covered by a certain regime the paper applies the oslo potsdam solution to account for outcome effectiveness it applies a variant of the international regimes data base protocol to account for effective regime structures in a last section the paper proposes some possible paths for future research

balancing energy security priorities portfolio optimization approach to oil imports the notion of energy security in most interpretations includes the physical supply and price affordability components making financial risks a crucial part of energy security strategies mainstrea

is energy security a driver for economic growth evidence from a global sample abstract this study examines whether energy security contributes to economic growth for a global sample of 74 countries covering the period from 2002 to 2013 the benchmark model is built based on an extended version of the cobb douglas production function ten measures of energy security are employed to capture five aspects of energy security including availability accessibility acceptability affordability and develop ability besides the whole sample we also conduct the panel data analysis on subsamples of countries based on different income levels using panel corrected standard errors pcse and feasible generalized least squares fgls techniques that correct for heterogeneity and autocorrelation and produce robust standard errors the empirical results appear to be relatively robust to these two estimation techniques overall we find that energy security enhances economic growth for both the whole sample and subsamples of countries meanwhile energy insecurity measured by energy intensity and carbon intensity variables has a negative impact on economic growth the results vary across subsamples for several cases the findings imply that at the global level energy for economic development energy security and climate change mitigation should be pursued as integrated themes since there are linkages among these three agendas

the impact of opec on east asian oil import security a multidimensional analysis abstract east asian countries such as china japan and south korea are major importers in the international oil market therefore oil import security is critical to sustainable economic development in these countries this paper uses a modified two stage dea like model to investigate the impact of the organization of petroleum exporting countries opec on oil import security in the east asian region over time specifically three dimensional variables were introduced to the model the opec internal dimension the opec and asian country interaction dimension and the international external dimension the empirical results show a substantial difference between china and the other two countries in terms of these dimensions although the impact of opec on china s oil security has increased over time its impact on japan has declined political uncertainty in opec countries and oil price volatility are the major issues for china whereas cost is the key area of concern for japan south korea s concerns are less clear the results of this study lay an important foundation for discussing policy issues involved in regional cooperation integration and sustainable growth in the east asian region

immigration reform and farm labor markets farmers throughout the united states report a shortage of workers at the same time there are proposals to strengthen the enforcement of existing immigration laws in this paper we develop an equilibrium approach to examine the impact of removing undocumented workers from the california agricultural labor market and to infer whether there is evidence of shortages using individual worker data we find evidence that is consistent with a persistent shortage in some sub sectors of the california farm labor market further we conduct counter factual policy simulations over a range of possible policy alternatives and find that removing 50 all undocumented farm workers from the state would lead to an increase in wages of over 22

long term energy services security what is it and how can it be measured and valued abstract the paper reviews some recent approaches towards measuring the extent of long term energy security and security externality valuation it starts out to discuss the contextual connotations of notions of energy security in medium to long term time frames and reviews some indicators that have been proposed to quantify it special attention is paid to two of these approaches which the authors helped to develop i e diversity based indices and the supply demand index the paper takes issue with conventional welfare economic approaches that neglect i the scope on the demand side for raising security and ii negative feedback mechanisms of socio political impacts of international rent transfers in fossil fuels exporting countries the concept of energy services security is proposed with a demand side focus this enables application of an integrated approach to gauge the resilience of a society to meet the needs of its population for energy services over longer timescales ahead from various interrelated perspectives propositions are made on the attribution of security externalities to the use of fossil fuels policies and suggestions for further improvements of measures for energy services security

is peakoilism coming peak oil research and the association for the study of peak oil and gas aspo have contributed a great deal to improve people s recognition of peak oil although peak oil is becoming a part of public recognition it is still hard to say whether peak oil discussion will develop into a theory such as peakoilism on one hand there are still some difficult problems in peak oil research on the other hand the peakoilers have the potential for scientific research and have their allies the climate change researchers and the new energy advocates oil is a limited non renewable resource and an oil peak is inevitable peak oil theory is a kind of development theory rather than a crisis theory which promotes reasonable utilization of the limited oil resources promotes conservation and encourages the development of renewable energy

economic analysis and the quest for competitive advantage curred in the past decade between applied microeconomists and those who study business strategy business strategists have cast up a series of questions for industrial economists who have responded with numerous applications of economic theory and quantitative research methods this interchange has been fruitful and indeed more fruit remains for the picking i shall argue for centering the collaborative effort on what may be called committed competition rivalrous moves among incumbent producers that involve resource commitments that are irrevocable for nontrivial periods of time most concerns of business strategy are with policy choices that

from efficiency measurement to efficiency improvement the choice of a relevant benchmark abstract this article deals with efficiency improvement and how to identify appropriate benchmarks for inefficient firms to imitate we argue that the most relevant benchmark is the most similar efficient firm having interpreted similarity in terms of input endowments the problem reduces to find the closest reference firm on the efficient subset of the isoquant to such an end we introduce the concept of input specific contractions this concept allows to find the shortest path to the efficient subset this information can be used to advise inefficient firms about which efficient firm to visit in order to detect its mistakes and to learn better managerial practices

indicators for energy security the concept of energy security is widely used yet there is no consensus on its precise interpretation in this research we have provided an overview of available indicators for long term security of supply sos we distinguished four dimensions of energy security that relate to the availability accessibility affordability and acceptability of energy and classified indicators for energy security according to this taxonomy there is no one ideal indicator as the notion of energy security is highly context dependent rather applying multiple indicators leads to a broader understanding incorporating these indicators in model based scenario analysis showed accelerated depletion of currently known fossil resources due to increasing global demand coupled with increasing spatial discrepancy between consumption and production international trade in energy carriers is projected to have increased by 142 in 2050 compared to 2008 oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in a few countries up to 2030 after which production from other regions diversifies the market under stringent climate policies this diversification may not occur due to reduced demand for oil possible benefits of climate policy include increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources

an international assessment of energy security performance energy security has in recent years grown as a salient policy and political issue to better understand energy security and sustainability concerns this study s main objective is to present an energy security index which measures national performance on energy security over time based on three years of research involving interviews surveys and an international workshop this study conceptualizes energy security as consisting of the interconnected factors of availability affordability efficiency sustainability and governance it then matches these factors with 20 metrics comprising an energy security index measuring international performance across 18 countries from 1990 to 2010 it offers three case studies of japan top performer laos middle performer and myanmar w orst performer to provide context to the index s results it then presents four conclusions first a majority of countries analyzed have regressed in terms of their energy security second despite the near total deterioration of energy security a great disparity exists between countries with some clear leaders such as japan third tradeoffs exist within different components of energy security fourth creating energy security is as much a matter of domestic policy from within as it is from foreign policy without

liberalisation and the security of gas supply in the uk abstract this paper contests the view held by the current uk government and its industry regulator ofgem that liberalisation is good for security of supply focusing on the downstream aspects of the security of uk gas supply on system security it considers the impact of the different aspects of liberalisation of legal governance supply competition de integration market simulation regulation and the interaction of liberalised gas and electricity markets categorising these impacts in terms of security threats and threats to security response it finds that individually and as a complex collectivity they have increased the risks of supply failure either potential or already realised in a variety of ways from creating increased uncertainty and failing to signal adequate or appropriate investment to legal ambiguity which divorces responsibility from liability and renders legal liability indeterminate ex ante moreover one of the uk government s responses to these increased dangers which it does appear to perceive is revealed as itself paralysed by the liberalisation paradigm the government can only intervene pre emptively with information in attempt to persuade the market to behave as it thinks it should meanwhile however the government has also had to recognise its default responsibility for security of supply and make preparations to intervene in an emergency situation liberalisation can only be challenged when it is already too late

strategic leaders or strategic groups a longitudinal data envelopment analysis of the u s brewing industry abstract this paper builds on strategic group theory which was originally introduced to help explain the observed variation in firm profitability across an industry this paper applies data envelopment analysis dea to identify both strategic leaders the best practice players in the industry and strategic groups to examine which are the source of the most sustained heterogeneity in the performance of u s brewers contrary to the prevalent research approach in strategy and organization research which places a premium on empirical analyses that maximize explanation of average behavior daft and lewin 1990 this paper examines extremal observations as a means of studying or inducing theories about best practice such as best strategies or most effective organization design lewin and minton 1986 the paper argues that significant insights new knowledge and unexpected theories can arise from studying the best or worst of a population the paper applies dea to a longitudinal reanalysis of u s brewing data to demonstrate its usefulness for obtaining new insights from identifying and studying industry outliers the paper raises important questions about the construct of strategic groups and illustrates how competing theories can be deduced and analyzed for explaining performance heterogeneity in the u s brewing industry

diversification of oil import sources and energy security a key strategy or an elusive objective this paper explores the relationship between the diversification of sources of imported oil and energy security of oil importing countries it examines the importance of diversification policy for oil importers explains why oil importers implement oil diversification policy and contextualizes the oil import diversification strategy in the overall energy security policy of oil importers the paper analyzes the factors and the contexts that affect the level of importance assigned to oil import diversification policy in oil importing countries and the limitations that may affect the successful implication of oil import diversification policy the examples are drawn from the world s top three oil importers the united states japan and china the policymakers in these and other oil importing countries place much importance on energy security the diversification of oil import sources is used as one of the strategies to enhance energy security in oil importing countries this paper is important for policymakers in oil importing countries as it provides them with a qualitative conceptual framework with which to evaluate the need to diversify their countries sources of imported oil and with which to identify the likely limitations to the successful implementation of oil import diversification policy

macroeconomic and political aspects of energy security exploratory data analysis abstract although the issue of energy security stands high on the scale of the european union s priorities there has been no single accepted definition of energy security thus far in light of the global economic crisis and political instability the issue of energy security is directly linked to geopolitical and macroeconomic stability this paper offers a new method of measuring energy security which unlike the existing indicators of energy stability in addition to economic and environmental indicators also includes the political and social aspects within the composite indicator of country risk the new energy security index esi is defined based on the application of principal component analysis pca analysis of the values of a new esi indicator shows that energy security is greatly influenced by gdp per capita country risk carbon intensity energy intensity final energy consumption per capita and electricity prices while the least importance rests with the share of renewable sources in energy consumption and energy dependence the values of the index by country are stable over the entire observed period but significant differences are noticeable between countries the highest index values are reported in luxembourg sweden finland and denmark and the lowest in bulgaria romania estonia and poland with the aim of robustness check the results of eu member states rankings were compared to country rankings based on the energy trilemma index compared to country rankings based on the energy trilemma index three countries recorded the same rank denmark check republic and bulgaria and the biggest deviation of 9 ranking position was reported by luxembourg the results of the research show that there is a statistically important difference in the value of energy security index between the observed groups of countries classified according to the level of macroeconomic stability

conceptualizing energy security abstract energy security 1 is one of the main targets of energy policy however the term has not been clearly defined which makes it hard to measure and difficult to balance against other policy objectives we review the multitude of definitions of energy security they can be characterized according to the sources of risk the scope of the impacts and the severity filters in the form of the speed size sustention spread singularity and sureness of impacts using a stylized case study for three european countries we illustrate how the selection of conceptual boundaries along these dimensions determines the outcome this can be avoided by more clearly separating between security of supply and other policy objectives this leads us to the definition of energy security as the continuity of energy supplies relative to demand

strategic group dynamics a longitudinal study was conducted of strategic group dynamics over periods of economic stability growth and decline in international offshore oil drilling some changes in group strategy were ob

assessment of energy security in china based on ecological network analysis a perspective from the security of crude oil supply abstract energy security usually considers both the stability of energy supply and security of energy use and it is receiving increasing attention globally considering the strategic importance and sensitivity to international change of the crude oil supply we decided to examine china s energy security an original network model was established based on ecological network analysis to holistically evaluate the security of the crude oil supply in china using this model we found that the security of the crude oil supply in china generally increased from 2001 to 2010 the contribution of different compartments in the network to the overall energy security resembled a pyramid structure with supply sources at the bottom the consumption sector at the top and the refining and transfer sectors in the middle north and south america made the largest contribution to the security of the crude oil supply in china we provide suggestions to improve the security of the crude oil supply in china based on our results and further scenario analysis the original network model provides a new perspective for energy security assessment which can be used as a baseline to develop other models and policy

between russia as producer and ukraine as a transit country eu dilemma of interdependence and energy security abstract between 2014 and 2015 the eu started a new energy policy in order to address among other issues the problematic character of energy interdependence with russia and thus improve its energy security the aim of this article is to determine how this policy considered interdependence with russia in the light of diversification alternatives energy security is seen through short term and long term dimensions which can be equated to the concepts of vulnerability and sensitivity interdependence as the article shows the alternative of lng is limited by production and consumption patterns in both europe and other world markets it also shows that maintaining interdependence with russia and reducing the role of transit countries such as ukraine would yield benefits both in vulnerability and sensitivity interdependence however while the eu has strongly based its rhetoric on the promise of lng it has ignored alternatives that would maintain interdependence with russia eventually the eu s energy strategy has acknowledged the limitations of lng even though it has not changed its stance towards russia in that respect it seems fair to conclude the eu has not rigorously analysed the transit dimension in its interdependence with russia and the implications for its energy security