revisiting the tourism led growth hypothesis for turkey using the bounds test and johansen approach for cointegration abstract this paper empirically revisits and investigates the tourism led growth tlg hypothesis in the case of turkey by employing the bounds test and johansen approach for cointegration using annual data from 1960 2006 although gunduz and hatemi j 2005 is the tourism led growth hypothesis valid for turkey applied economics letters 12 499 504 support the tlg hypothesis for turkey suggesting unidirectional causation from tourism to economic growth by making use of the leveraged bootstrap causality tests and ongan and demiroz 2005 the contribution of tourism to the long run turkish economic growth ekonomick casopis journal of economics 53 9 880 894 suggest bidirectional causality between international tourism and economic growth in turkey this study does not find any cointegration between international tourism and economic growth in turkey therefore unlike the findings of gunduz and hatemi j 2005 and ongan and demiroz 2005 this study rejects the tlg hypothesis for the turkish economy since no cointegration was found and error correction mechanisms plus causality tests cannot be run for further steps in the long term

the realization effect risk taking after realized versus paper losses abstract understanding how prior outcomes affect risk attitudes is critical for the study of choice under uncertainty a large literature documents the significant influence of prior losses on risk attitudes the findings appear contradictory some studies find greater risk taking after a loss whereas others show the opposite that people take on less risk i reconcile these seemingly inconsistent findings by distinguishing between realized versus paper losses using new and existing data i replicate prior findings and demonstrate that following a realized loss individuals avoid risk if the same loss is not realized a paper loss individuals take on greater risk jel d11 d14 d81 g11

individual risk attitudes measurement determinants and behavioral consequences this paper studies risk attitudes using a large representative survey and a complementary experiment conducted with a representative subject pool in subjects homes using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks in general we find that gender age height and parental background have an economically significant impact on willingness to take risks the experiment confirms the behavioral validity of this measure using paid lottery choices turning to other questions about risk attitudes in specific contexts we find similar results on the determinants of risk attitudes and also shed light on the deeper question of stability of risk attitudes across contexts we conduct a horse race of the ability of different measures to explain risky behaviors such as holdings stocks occupational choice and smoking the question about risk taking in general generates the best all round predictor of risky behavior

electricity consumption and economic growth in algeria a multivariate causality analysis in the presence of structural change this article addresses the issue of electricity consumption petroleum price and economic growth in algeria the primary objective is to investigate and analyze the causal relationship between electricity consumption ec brent oil price bop and economic growth gdp for algeria over the period of 1971 2010 to examine short run long run and joint causality relationships we used a multivariate cointegration approach based on the recent advances in time series econometrics e g zivot andrews test gregory hansen cointegration test vector error correction models vecm the empirical results show that there is evidence of short run and a strong long run bi directional causal relationship between ec and real gdp in algeria findings indicate also the absence of causal relationship between bop and ec our empirical findings support the idea that there a link between electricity consumption and economic growth and disproves the neo classical assumption referred to as the neutrality hypothesis

causal independence between energy consumption and economic growth in liberia evidence from a non parametric bootstrapped causality test abstract this contribution investigates causal interdependence between energy consumption and economic growth in liberia and proposes application of a bootstrap methodology to better reflect causality employment is incorporated as additional variable the study demonstrates evidence of distinct bidirectional granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth additionally the results show that employment in liberia granger causes economic growth and apply irrespective of the short run or long run evidence from a monte carlo experiment reveals that the asymptotic granger causality test suffers size distortion problem for liberian data suggesting that the bootstrap technique employed in this study is more appropriate given the empirical results implications are that energy expansion policies like energy subsidy or low energy tariff for instance would be necessary to cope with demand exerted as a result of economic growth in liberia furthermore liberia might have the performance of its employment generation on the economy partly determined by adequate energy therefore it seems fully justified that a quick shift towards energy production based on clean energy sources may significantly slow down economic growth in liberia hence the government s target to implement a long term strategy to make liberia a carbon neutral country and eventually less carbon dependent by 2050 is understandable

causes consequences and cures of myopic loss aversion an experimental investigation we examine in an experiment the causes consequences and possible cures of myopic loss aversion mla for investment behaviour under risk we find that both investment horizons and feedback frequency contribute almost equally to the effects of mla longer investment horizons and less frequent feedback lead to higher investments however when given the choice subjects prefer on average shorter investment horizons and more frequent feedback exploiting the status quo bias by setting a long investment horizon or low feedback frequency as a default turns out to be a successful behavioural intervention that increases investment levels

do professional traders exhibit myopic loss aversion an experimental analysis two behavioral concepts loss aversion and mental accounting have been combined to provide a theoretical explanation of the equity premium puzzle recent experimental evidence supports the theory as students behavior has been found to be consistent with myopic loss aversion mla yet much like certain anomalies in the realm of riskless decision making these behavioral tendencies may be attenuated among professionals using traders recruited from the cbot we do indeed find behavioral differences between professionals and students but rather than discovering that the anomaly is muted we find that traders exhibit behavior consistent with mla to a greater extent than students

oil price fluctuations and singapore economy this study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the singapore economy is marginal both impulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to believe that the impact only had an insignificant adverse effect on singapore s gross domestic product gdp inflation and unemployment rates further analysis on two oil vulnerability measures supports the finding the declining trend of oil intensity in singapore since 1989 and the declining shares of the singapore s expenditure on oil consumption as a percentage of its nominal gdp this study identifies however that the impact of an oil price shock on the singapore economy should not be considered negligible even though it is small

the effect of myopia and loss aversion on risk taking an experimental test myopic loss aversion is the combination of a greater sensitivity to losses than to gains and a tendency to evaluate outcomes frequently two implications of myopic loss aversion are tested experimentally 1 investors who display myopic loss aversion will be more willing to accept risks if they evaluate their investments less often 2 if all payoffs are increased enough to eliminate losses investors will accept more risk in a task in which investors learn from experience both predictions are supported the investors who got the most frequent feedback and thus the most information took the least risk and earned the least money language en

multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption exports and gdp evidence from a panel of middle eastern countries this paper examines the causal relationship between electricity consumption exports and gross domestic product gdp for a panel of middle eastern countries we find that for the panel as a whole there are statistically significant feedback effects between these variables a 1 per cent increase in electricity consumption increases gdp by 0 04 per cent a 1 per cent increase in exports increases gdp by 0 17 per cent and a 1 per cent increase in gdp generates a 0 95 per cent increase in electricity consumption the policy implications are that for the panel as a whole these countries should invest in electricity infrastructure and step up electricity conservation policies to avoid a reduction in electricity consumption adversely affecting economic growth further policy implications are that for the panel as a whole promoting exports particularly non oil exports is a means to promote economic growth and that expansion of exports can be realized without having adverse effects on energy conservation policies

interactions between energy and imports in singapore empirical evidence from conditional error correction models this study empirically tests for long run equilibrium relationship and the direction of causality between imports and energy consumption in singapore the results of the present study reveal that a long run equilibrium relationship exists between import growth and energy consumption growth in singapore by using bivariate systems imports of singapore converge to long term equilibrium levels by 79 9 percent speed of adjustment through the channel of energy growth furthermore the major finding of this study is that there are long and short term undirectional causalities that run from energy growth to import growth in singapore which denote that energy consumption in singapore is a catalyst for importing

are risk aversion and impatience related to cognitive ability is the way that people make risky choices or tradeoffs over time related to cognitive ability this paper investigates whether there is a link between cognitive ability risk aversion and impatience using a representative sample of the population and incentive compatible measures we conduct choice experiments measuring risk aversion and impatience over an annual time horizon for a randomly drawn sample of roughly 1 000 german adults subjects also take part in two different tests of cognitive ability which correspond to sub modules of one of the most widely used iq tests interviews are conducted in subjects own homes we find that lower cognitive ability is associated with greater risk aversion and more pronounced impatience these relationships are significant and robust to controlling for personal characteristics educational attainment income and measures of credit constraints we perform a series of additional robustness checks which help rule out other possible confounds

free entry and social inefficiency our goal is to provide a simple yet general exposition of the conditions under which the number of entrants in a free entry equilibrium is excessive insufficient or optimal our analysis compares the number of firms that enter a market when there is free entry with the number that would be desired by a social planner who is unable to control the behavior of firms once they are in the market that is we consider the second best problem of choosing the welfare maximizing number of firms while we take as given their noncompetitive behavior after entry we demonstrate that the crucial conditions for establishing the presence of an entry bias can be stated quite simply in terms of the outcome of the postentry game played by entrants in contrast to previous work we do not need to model this postentry game explicitly

an experiment on risk taking and evaluation periods does the period over which individuals evaluate outcomes influence their investment in risky assets results from this study show that the more frequently returns are evaluated the more risk averse investors will be the results are in line with the behavioral hypothesis of myopic loss aversion which assumes that people are myopic in evaluating outcomes over time and are more sensitive to losses than to gains the results have relevance for the equity premium puzzle and also for the marketing strategies of fund managers

evidence for countercyclical risk aversion an experiment with financial professionals countercyclical risk aversion can explain major puzzles such as the high volatility of asset prices evidence for its existence is however scarce because of the host of factors that simultaneously change during financial cycles we circumvent these problems by priming financial professionals with either a boom or a bust scenario subjects primed with a financial bust were substantially more fearful and risk averse than those primed with a boom suggesting that fear may play an important role in countercyclical risk aversion the mechanism described here is relevant for theory and may explain self reinforcing processes that amplify market dynamics jel e32 e44 g01 g11 g12

causal interactions between trade openness renewable electricity consumption and economic growth in asia pacific countries fresh evidence from a bootstrap ardl approach abstract this paper applies a new bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag a r d l approach to examine the nexus between trade openness renewable electricity consumption and economic growth for seven countries in the asia pacific region during 1980 2017 period in fact there is no evidence of cointegration among real trade openness electricity consumption and real g d p per capita in countries with the exception of malaysia where real g d p serves as dependent variable however cointegration does manifest in the cases of indonesia japan south korea and thailand when trade openness is used as the dependent variable a similar outcome is observed for indonesia malaysia and thailand when renewable electricity consumption is used as the dependent variable a short run analysis reveals mixed results in term of the direction of the causality among different variables for various countries such results have implications for trade energy and environmental policies one implication is that any environmental policy aiming to reduce the use of non renewable energy and carbon dioxide emissions will inevitably lead to greater renewable energy consumption which in turn may enhance trade openness and ultimately accelerate economic growth

international tourism higher education and economic growth the case of north cyprus this study investigates the long run equilibrium relationship between international tourism higher education growth real income growth and the direction of causality among these variables for the turkish republic of northern cyprus which is not recognised by any country other than turkey results reveal that international tourism and higher education are in a long run equilibrium relationship with real income growth international tourism and higher education have an inelastic yet positively significant impact on real income growth in the long run period finally the results of the present study reveal that both the tourism led growth and the higher education led growth hypotheses are confirmed for north cyprus

optimal firm size taxes and unemployment abstract we analyze a model similar to the standard implicit contracting framework but assume that the size of the firm the number of workers under contract is endogenous some well known predictions from contract theory with firm size fixed exogenously are reversed in particular a result obtained by feldstein concerning unemployment insurance does not hold when firm size is chosen optimally he concludes an increase in experience rating the extent to which firms pay for unemployment benefits through their taxes reduces unemployment while we show that it increases unemployment under reasonable conditions

does commitment or feedback influence myopic loss aversion an experimental analysis empirical research has shown that a lower feedback frequency combined with a longer bind ing period decreases myopia and thereby increases the willingness to invest into a risky asset in an experimental study we disentangle the intertwined manipulation of feedback frequency and binding period to analyze how both variables alone contribute to the change in myopia and how they interact we find a strong effect for the length of commitment a much less pro nounced effect for the feedback frequency and a strong interaction between both variables the results have important implications for real world intertemporal decision making

how persistent are the effects of experience sampling on investor behavior abstract investor behavior was shown to be considerably different when the risk return tradeoff is presented by experience sampling as opposed to a descriptive communication we analyze the persistency of this difference in a setting in which investors are faced with multiple decisions over time and are consequently able to adjust the risk level they initially chose for this we use an experimental setting with repeated investment decisions over multiple trading days and we also test a new form of risk simulation in which wealth paths over time are presented rather than just final outcomes after investors initial decisions for which we confirm previous findings we do not find persistent differences of simulation based learning on investors risk taking behavior with regards to trading volume only a simulation in which investors see wealth paths and not only final outcomes leads to lower trading frequency soon after the initial asset allocation

does aggregated returns disclosure increase portfolio risk taking many experiments have found that participants take more investment risk if they see returns less frequently see portfolio level returns rather than each individual asset s returns or see long horizon rather than one year historical return distributions in contrast we find that such information aggregation treatments do not affect total equity investment when we make the investment environment more realistic than in prior experiments previously documented aggregation effects are not robust to changes in the risky asset s return distribution or the introduction of a multi day delay between portfolio choice and return realizations

unemployment insurance and employment this article examines the impact of unemployment insurance ui on the allocation of labor across industries an overlooked aspect of ui is the effect of imperfect experience rating on hiring firms in more stable industries generally pay more into the ui system than their workers ever receive in benefits thus subsidizing more volatile industries the results indicate that industry employment shares are significantly affected by ui and that there is a net shift of resources from the service industry to the construction industry the estimates also imply that layoff unemployment is increased by about 5 because of ui induced employment shifts

renewable generation across italian regions spillover effects and effectiveness of european regional fund abstract this paper investigates on the determinant factors that drive the italian regions toward a sustainable development path and evaluates the effectiveness of european regional development incentives in promoting investments in renewable energy sources res starting from the consideration that there are spillover effects between similar regions first we identify the factors that capture these similarities then we use them to evaluate their relevance in determining the success of the investments in res an econometric analysis based on the use of spatial panel specification model is implemented to support the hypotheses two important results emerge from the study the first is the identification of regional determinants of res production that are driven by the similarities between regions and that can be interpreted as guidelines in the policy choices in support of investments the second is the lack of effectiveness of the incentives in support of res results indicate that the capacity of some regional governments to direct the funds allocated by the central government or european commission towards efficient production of renewable energy is likely limited and these incentives have been undone

the gender effect in risky asset holdings abstract we study the relation between gender and stock holdings in finland a particularly gender equal country we show that it is crucial to control for risk aversion using a measure of subjective risk taking rather than measures derived from abstract gambles controls related to financial knowledge and resources also explain the gender difference the residual effect of the male gender on the conditional equity share after all appropriate controls is 3 percentage points and statistically significant the effect on stock market participation on the other hand is close to zero or negative so men contribute more to the nonparticipation puzzle conditional on covariates the gender difference mainly works through women s higher risk aversion which we find extends to finance professionals and wealthy private banking customers

causality between trade openness and energy consumption what causes what in high middle and low income countries abstract this paper explores the relationship between trade openness and energy consumption using data of 91 high middle and low income countries the study covers the period of 1980 2010 we have applied panel cointegration to examine long run relationship between the variables the direction of causal relationship between trade openness is investigated by applying homogenous non causality homogenous causality and heterogeneous causality tests our variables are integrated at i 1 confirmed by time series and panel unit root tests and cointegration is found between trade openness and energy consumption the relationship between trade openness and energy consumption is inverted u shaped in high income countries but u shaped in middle and low income countries the homogenous and non homogenous causality analysis reveals the bidirectional causality between trade openness and energy consumption this paper opens up new insights for policy makers to design a comprehensive economic trade and policies for sustainable economic growth in long run following heterogeneous causality findings

the role of globalization on the recent evolution of energy demand in india implications for sustainable development using annual data for the period 1971 2012 this study explores the relationship between globalization and energy consumption for india by endogenizing economic growth financial development and urbanization the cointegration test proposed by bayer hanck 2013 is applied to estimate the long run and short run relationships among the variables after confirming the existence of cointegration the overall results from the estimation of an ardl energy demand function reveal that in the long run the acceleration of globalization measured in three dimensions economic social and overall globalization leads to a decline in energy demand in india furthermore while financial development is negatively related to energy consumption economic growth and urbanization are the key factors leading to increased energy demand in the long run these results have policy implications for the sustainable development of india in particular globalization and financial development provide a win win situation for india to increase its economic growth in the long run and become more environmentally sustainable

unemployment insurance and market structure abstract this paper examines the impact of unemployment insurance ui on employment and unemployment in an industry in which the prices can vary due to some market power some non conventional results are obtained it is shown that if there is free entry and exit average industrial employment may be a decreasing function of the experience rating because the number of firms in the industry is itself a decreasing function of this parameter this contradicts the conventional view which was arrived at using models of a perfectly competitive industry with no entry and according to which employment should be an increasing function of the experience rating the general conclusion is that for industries with different degrees of market power the same ui scheme has different impacts on employment and unemployment

the energy growth nexus in thailand does trade openness boost up energy consumption the nexus between trade openness and energy demand is hot topic of discussion among academicians and researchers and numerous studies are available in existing literature while investigating the nexus between trade openness and energy demand this paper explores the relationship between energy consumption trade openness and economic growth in case of thailand in doing so we have applied bayer and hanck cointegration approach to test whether the long run relationship exists between the variables our results confirm the presence of cointegration between the variables energy consumption stimulates economic growth trade openness adds in economic growth the causality analysis reveals that energy consumption granger causes economic growth and in resulting economic growth granger causes energy consumption trade openness and energy consumption are interdependent i e trade openness granger causes energy consumption and in return energy consumption granger causes trade openness this paper openness up new directions for policy making authorities in thailand to design a comprehensive energy and trade policies to sustain economic growth for long run

the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in lebanon this paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in lebanon over the period 1980 2009 within a bivariate framework imposed on us due to data limitations and in an effort to increase the robustness of our results we employ a variety of causality tests namely hsiao toda yamamoto and vector error correction based granger causality tests we find strong evidence of a bidirectional relationship both in the short run and in the long run indicating that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in lebanon from a policy perspective the confirmation of the feedback hypothesis warns against the use of policy instruments geared towards restricting energy consumption as these may lead to adverse effects on economic growth consequently there is a pressing need to revise the current national energy policy that calls for a 5 energy conservation target also to shield the country from external supply shocks given its substantial dependence on energy imports policymakers should emphasize the development of domestic energy resources further the most pertinent implication is that relaxing the present electric capacity shortages should be made a national priority in view of its potential positive effect on the economy

the saving and investment nexus for china evidence from cointegration tests the saving and investment nexus as postulated by feldstein and horioka fh 1980 is revisited the saving investment correlation for china is estimated over the periods 1952 1998 and 1952 1994 the latter culminating in a period of fixed exchange rate regime amongst the key results it is found that saving and investment are correlated for china for both the period of the fixed exchange rate and the entire sample period with high saving investment correlation the results suggest that the chinese economy is in conformity with the fh hypothesis this is a valid outcome for in china capital mobility was fairly restricted over the 1952 1994 period as indicated by the relatively low foreign direct investment