has job stability decreased population data from a small open economy we use a population based employer employee dataset to analyze changes in job stability in norway we first present descriptive analyses of tenure and separation rates followed by regression adjusted measures controlling for changes in demographics and the business cycle we see only weak evidence of changes in the tenure rates in particular for the public sector we find a slight increase in short tenures and a decrease in tenures above eight years however we do not find that this tendency towards less stable jobs leads to an increase in the flow to unemployment or out of the labor force

banking deregulation and industry structure evidence from the french banking reforms of 1985 we investigate how the deregulation of the french banking industry in the 1980s affected the real behavior of firms and the structure and dynamics of product markets following deregulation banks are less willing to bail out poorly performing firms and firms in the more bank dependent sectors are more likely to undertake restructuring activities at the industry level we observe an increase in asset and job reallocation an improvement in allocative efficiency across firms and a decline in concentration overall these findings support the view that a more efficient banking sector helps foster a schumpeterian process of creative destruction many economies around the world are characterized by heavily regulated bank

the male marital wage premium sorting vs differential pay the authors examine whether male marital and parenthood premia arise due to differential pay by employers or from differential sorting of employees on occupations and establishments they investigate these premia using matched employee employer data from the period 1979 96 in norway a country with increased pressures on men to be more active in the family sphere and in which public policy has aimed at remaking the family institution we find that the effect of marriage and to a lesser extent of children occurs mostly through sorting on occupations and occupation establishment units the role of differential pay from employers is marginal in explaining the marital and parenthood premia results assessing within individual changes in wages suggest that about 80 of the marital premium is due to selection the men who eventually marry and or have children sort into the higher paying occupations and occupation establishment units even prior to marriage and parenthood

distribution and redistribution in postindustrial democracies this paper analyzes the processes of distribution and redistribution in post industrial democracies we combine a pooled time series data base on welfare state effort and its determinants assembled by huber ragin and stephens 1997 with data on income distribution assembled in the luxembourg income survey lis archive in the case of the lis data we re calculate the micro data in order to remove the distorting influence of pensioners on pre tax pre transfer income distribution we examine the determinants of three dependent variables pre tax pre transfer income inequality post tax post transfer income inequality and the proportional reduction in inequality from pre to post tax and transfer inequality we hypothesized that pre tax pre transfer income inequality would be determined by labor market institutions union density bargaining centralization labor market conditions unemployment and economic structures post industrialism third world imports we hypothesized that the reduction in inequality would be determined by political configurations directly by left government and indirectly via their effect on welfare state generosity by left government and christian democratic government post tax and transfer income inequality was hypothesized to be a product of the combination of labor market variables and political variables the results broadly confirms our hypotheses and the overall fit is very good

from flexibility to insecurity how vertical separation amplifies firm level uncertainty this article presents a model where firms may endogenously externalize part of their production process we start from the premise that adaptation to uncertainty cannot be contracted upon in the worker employer relationship vertical separation then balances flexibility gains against hold up costs of opportunistic behavior by outside contractors in equilibrium the degree of separation is shown to depend on the degree of product market competition contractor s bargaining power and the volatility of demand shocks our main result is that an increase in the degree of vertical separation amplifies the elasticity to demand shocks of firms sales and employment it does not however amplify aggregate uncertainty evidence from firm level data is shown to be largely consistent with the main implications of our theory jel l16 l23 l24

the influence of attitudes toward risk on the value of forecasting consider a price taking firm that faces a random demand function in the sense that the market price varies randomly around some mean to minimize the complications we shall assume that the firm s cost function is nonstochastic and that the product is highly perishable thereby eliminating inventory problems the firm s profit function is still a random variable if the owner s output decision must be made prior to the random resolution of the price the firm is worse off than if the decision could be made after the price has been determined if the owner could obtain a perfect forecast ex ante output decisions could be made as though they were ex post decisions since the owner is better off with a perfect forecast forecasting services are valuable 2 we are concerned with the relative value of forecasting to risk averse and risk neutral owners in spite of the fact that risk averters dislike uncertainty whereas risk neutral owners are indifferent we show that risk averters often place a lower value on forecasting than do risk neutral agents initially we provide a sufficient condition for risk averters to value forecasting less than do risk neutral decision makers next we illustrate this possibility in the context of forecasting random price we conclude with some remarks on imperfect forecasting and some related work on temporal risk versus timeless risk

twin picks disentangling the determinants of risk taking in household portfolios this paper investigates risk taking in the liquid portfolios held by a large panel of swedish twins we document that the portfolio share invested in risky assets is an increasing and concave function of financial wealth leading to different risk sensitivities across investors human capital which we estimate directly from individual labor income also affects risk taking positively while internal habit and expenditure commitments tend to reduce it our microfindings lend strong support to decreasing relative risk aversion and habit formation preferences furthermore heterogeneous risk sensitivities across investors help reconcile individual preferences with representative agent models

sectoral transformation and labour market flows in this chapter we examine the dynamics of adjustment in the labour market and in particular the movement of workers between industries it is often assumed that the speed with which the labour market must adjust has increased due to globalisation and or technological change if this is the case then these forces may be responsible for greater instability in the workplace the displacement of growing numbers of especially unskilled workers from declining sectors longer periods of unemployment and wage losses

against the wind bargaining recentralisation and wage inequality in norway 1987 91 in the late 1980s norway s labour market experienced similar supply and demand shifts for skills to other countries but unlike other oecd nations norway s wage setting system became more centralised the pay distribution in norway became more compressed at the bottom from 1987 to 1991 while low wage workers in other countries lost ground relatively using norwegian microdata for 1987 and 1991 i found that changing labour market prices helped cause this wage compression further the less educated had declining relative overall employment but increasing relative public sector employment both possible labour market responses to the wage compression

collective bargaining and the interindustry wage structure international evidence this paper studies collective bargaining and industry wage levels using microdata and quantile regression techniques for the united states britain west germany austria sweden and norway for the 1980s the united states has higher industry wage differentials and union wage effects than other countries with particularly large impacts at the bottom of the distribution european wage structures are more compressed at the bottom for both nonunion and union workers relative to the united states with larger differences for nonunion workers these findings suggest more coordination contract extension and spillover to nonunion workers and more binding industry wage floors outside the united states

the distribution of ncome in the uk and oecd countries in the twentieth century distributional changes are an important part of the economic history of the oecd countries over the twentieth century in the uk income inequality in the 1970s was substantially lower than 40 years earlier and is now much higher than in 1979 the pattern of change in the usa has similarities to that in the uk but other countries have exhibited significant differences in order to explain diversity of experience over time and differences in income inequality across countries today we need to recognize that the distribution of income is subject to a variety of forces affecting earnings wealth and income these forces include the policy choices made by governments affecting market incomes and fiscal redistribution what we need to explain is why in some periods a number of these forces combine to produce episodes of rising or falling inequality any single theory such as that based on a global shift of demand away from unskilled workers cannot provide a fully adequate explanation

incentives in organizations n 1975 steven kerr published on the folly of rewarding a while hoping for b the argument was simple you get what you pay for kerr distilled this unifying theme from a disparate set of examples involving politicians soldiers doctors orphanage directors professors and students as well as manufacturing and clerical employees and even human resource managers from these examples kerr pp 77980 concluded that two main causes of distorted incentives are fascination with an objective criterion where individuals seek to establish simple quantifiable standards against which to measure and reward performance and overemphasis on highly visible behaviors when some parts of the task are highly visible while others are not it took agency theory 15 years to express kerr s title not to mention to evaluate or extend his conclusions during this period agency theory was obsessed with the tradeoff between incentives and insurance even though clear eyed observations like kerr s about the design and performance of real incentive contracts suggested that several other issues are at least as important fortunately recent work has brought agency theory not only to kerr s position but beyond in this paper i summarize four new strands in agency theory that help me think about incentives in real organizations as a point of departure i begin with a quick sketch of the classic agency model i then discuss static models of objective performance measurement that sharpen kerr s argument repeated game models of subjective performance assessments incentives for skill development rather than simply for effort and incentive contracts between versus within organizations i con

the excess sensitivity of layoffs and quits to demand excessive layoffs in bad times and excessive quits in good times both stem from the same weakness in practical employment arrangements the specific nature of worker firm relations creates a situat

macroeconomic performance and collective bargaining an international perspective this paper critically reviews the research on how collective bargaining systems influence macroeconomic performance in industrialized countries the review considers effects of bargaining level coordination and corporatist institutional arrangements key empirical results turn out to be quite fragile and much of the paper explores issues of measurement and specification that account for the fragility the paper concludes that complementarities between key institutions and between institutions and the economic environment may be more important for macroeconomic performance than the effects of individual institutions and it suggests research strategies

regional labor markets and the determinants of wage inequality from 1972 to 1990 the united states experienced the largest increase in wage inequality of any developed country the spread in log wages between the 90th and 10th percentiles of the male wage distribution increased by about 60 points and inequality increased within virtually every demographic or skill category of the labor force see chinhui juhn et al 1993 various explanations have been offered including changes in the relative demand for skill intensive goods international trade immigration of less skilled workers and increased labor force participation of women yet attempts to quantify the relative importance of these factors have not met with much success this leaves skill biased technical change as the residual claimant that rationalizes the data this paper uses regional differences in the evolution of wage inequality to provide new evidence on the determinants of relative wages using a model of factor demand in geographic markets i isolate contributions of i changing skill ratios in the labor force ii increased participation of women iii technical change and iv changes in the industrial composition of labor demand the data indicate that changing skill ratios and women s labor supply have affected the wages of low skilled men in the west the data indicate that increased immigration of less skilled hispanic and asian workers has adversely affected the wages of natives causing a greater increase in inequality there than in any other region of the country i modeling wage inequality in regional markets

wealth distribution and output fluctuations we explore the link between wealth inequality and output fluctuations in a general two sector neoclassical growth model with endogenous labor and heterogeneous agents when agents have homogeneous crra preferences and individual wealth is pareto distributed a sufficiently large rise in the gini index typically leads to an increase in endogenous fluctuations of output for general economies we show that under plausible conditions on the fundamentals wealth inequality is still a destabilizing factor

representative consumer s risk aversion and efficient risk sharing rules abstract we study the representative consumer s risk attitude and efficient risk sharing rules in a single period single good economy in which consumers have homogeneous probabilistic beliefs but heterogeneous risk attitudes we prove that if all consumers have convex absolute risk tolerance so must the representative consumer we also identify a relationship between the curvature of an individual consumer s individual risk sharing rule and his absolute cautiousness the first derivative of absolute risk tolerance furthermore we discuss some consequences of these results and refinements of these results for the class of hara utility functions

automatic stabilizers and economic crisis us vs europe this paper analyzes the effectiveness of the tax and transfer systems in the eu and the us to provide income insurance through automatic stabilization in the recent economic crisis we find that automatic stabilizers absorb 38 of a proportional income shock in the eu compared to 32 in the us in the case of an unemployment shock 47 of the shock is absorbed in the eu compared to 34 in the us this cushioning of disposable income leads to a demand stabilization of up to 30 in the eu and up to 20 in the us there is large heterogeneity within the eu automatic stabilizers in eastern and southern europe are much lower than in central and northern european countries we also investigate whether countries with weak automatic stabilizers have enacted larger fiscal stimulus programs

the existence of self enforcing implicit contracts implicit contracts are nontrivial nash equilibria to the post hiring trading game between a worker and the employer these are supported by intrafirm rather than labor market reputations the existence of an implicit contract that supports efficient trade is proved in a simple model

wealth inequality and asset pricing in an arrow debreu exchange economy with identical agents except for their initial endowment we examine how wealth inequality affects the equilibrium level of the equity premium and the risk free rate we first show that wealth inequality raises the equity premium if and only if the inverse of absolute risk aversion is concave in wealth we then show that the equilibrium risk free rate is reduced by wealth inequality if the inverse of the coefficient of absolute prudence is concave we also prove that the combination of a small uninsurable background risk with wealth inequality biases asset pricing towards a larger equity premium and a smaller risk free rate the model of the representative consumer a la lucas 1978 failed to explain observed security prices more specifically as first stated by mehra and prescott 1985 the model predicts an equity premium that is too low and a risk free rate that is too high given the observed low variability of consumption growth a recent strand of the literature with papers by constantinides and duffie 1996 heaton and lucas 1996 and krusell and smith 1997 for example explores whether incomplete asset markets and heterogeneity among consumers can explain these puzzles constantinides and duffie 1996 in particular conclude that it is at least in principle possible to generate larger equity premia when such ingredients are introduced the aim of this paper is not to provide another explanation of the puzzles but rather to better understand the relationship between asset prices the heterogeneity of consumers wealth and the market incompleteness when markets are complete heterogeneous consumers are able to equalize their marginal rates of substitution across states and across time as shown by constantinides 1982 this implies that the equilibrium of the heterogeneous consumer economy can be duplicated by the equilibrium in a lucas economy with a representative agent this means that taking account of the heterogeneity in the population alone cannot explain why the representative agent model is rejected hansen and singleton 1982 this does not mean however that the distribution of wealth in the population for example has no effect on asset prices in general in order to understand this consider the departure from an egalitarian distribution of wealth by introducing a mean preserving transfer of endowment under decreasing absolute risk aversion poorer agents will be more risk averse whereas wealthier people will be less risk averse there is no reason a priori for that the group s attitude towards risk be unaffected by this transfer we first show that if absolute risk tolerance i e the inverse of the arrow pratt coefficient of absolute risk aversion is concave then the risk aversion of the agent with the mean wealth will be smaller than the risk aversion of the representative agent thus if an outside observer overlooks wealth inequality he consequently underestimates the aversion to risk of society this leads to

consumption of economic information in agriculture we develop a model of decision makers demand for agricultural economic information services this modeltreats choice of externaldecision support services as a function of actors assessment of how alternative investments in information complement their internal competencies data from a survey in four commodity systems are used to evaluate hypotheses as to how human capital and functional role of actors in commodity systems affect demand for variously formatted information by focusing on three axes of heterogeneity diversity among decision makers information service providers and information we are abl e to identify key structuraland functionalrel ationships in agricultural economic information systems

the scandinavian fantasy the sources of intergenerational mobility in denmark and the us this paper examines the sources of differences in social mobility between the us and denmark measured by income mobility denmark is a more mobile society but not when measured by educational mobility there are pronounced non linearities in income and educational mobility in both countries greater danish income mobility is largely a consequence of redistributional tax transfer and wage compression policies while danish social policies for children produce more favorable cognitive test scores for disadvantaged children they do not translate into more favorable educational outcomes partly because of disincentives to acquire education arising from the redistributional policies that increase income mobility

declining returns to education in norway comparing estimates across cohorts sectors and over time we examine the role of the norwegian education system in explaining the moderate and stable earnings dispersion in norway estimating earnings equations for 1980 and 1990 we find that returns to education have been remarkably stable in norway also when we compare returns to education across different sectors of the economy our analysis controls for self selection into education by using an instrumental variable technique we estimate separate education earnings profiles for different cohorts to identify the effect on wage premiums of the large changes that have taken place in the norwegian education system the substantially higher level of educational attainment for more recent cohorts does not cet par seem to have a negative effect on educational wage premiums for these younger cohorts jel classification j24 j31 i

job tenure in britain 1975 1992 the authors examine eighteen years of a large cross section to build up a picture of job tenure in britain they look for changes in the distribution of job tenure over a turbulent period for the u k labor market the authors find some change in the mean job tenure a decrease in elapsed tenure of about 10 percent between 1975 and 1992 these are important changes but they do not support the view that the dramatic changes in the labor market technology and competition have spelled the end of jobs for life copyright 1996 by royal economic society

intergenerational earnings mobility in norway levels and trends using longitudinal data for norwegian children born in 1950 1955 1960 and 1965 we find a relatively high degree of earnings mobility there is no tendency toward decreasing mobility over the cohorts conditioning on the position in the earnings distribution the analysis indicates quite high mobility in the middle of the distribution and somewhat more persistence at the top and bottom this approach also reveals increased mobility over time for sons but a less clear picture for daughters

costly employment contract renegotiation and the labor mobility of young men the distinction of quits and permanent layoffs remains a contentious issue in the labor economics literature basically there appear two contrasting views of such turnover while both interpretations of turnover are derived from job matching models that assume wealth maximizing behavior of workers and firms each involves different assumptions about the feasibility of individual labor contract negotiations following hire on the one hand application of the coase theorem to employment contracts implies that turnover will occur only when the value of the worker s product in some alternative employment exceeds current job productivity since the actual division of the job match rent is assumed costlessly renegotiable only the presence of a truly more productive job assignment would prevent the renegotiation of the current rent sharing contract to the mutual benefit of both worker and firm the likelihood of a job change is thus directly related to the level of total match productivity irregardless of whether the worker in response to some later survey question characterizes the separation as a quit or permanent layoff according to this formulation of worker and firm attachments quits and permanent layoffs are at least in any sense relevant to actual resource allocation indistinguishable an implication of this model is of course that mobility enhances productivity see gary becker elisabeth landes and robert michael 1977 counter to this view stand models of job matching that suggest that the presence of transactions costs in the form of costly contract renegotiations preclude any easy application of the coase theorem to employment contracts most forcefully advocated by masanori hashimoto 1981 these models of job matching imply that quits and permanent layoffs are different the difference results from the fact that with costly contract renegotiation mobility is to a large extent determined by the actual rent sharing agreement formulated at the beginning of employment according to this view then the total value of the match does not exclusively determine job change and thus not all mobility is productivity augmenting this paper offers a model of job matching with costly post hire negotiations in some aspects similar to that of hashimoto but with particular relevance to the population of young workers only beginning their labor force participation while hashimoto s discussion concentrates on longer term firmspecific training decisions the current model focuses on the period immediately following hire when worker productivity is to a large extent governed by endowed capabilities rather than determined by learning on the job the theoretical focus on inexperienced workers as well as the corresponding youthful composition of the empirical sample are motivated to control for unobserved factors such as firm specific human capital stocks as much as possible in further contrast to hashimoto s emphasis the model yields empirical implications concerning the role of wages in the determination of mobility that contrast to the implications of an otherwise similar zero negotiations cost model of job matching derivation of the empirical implications concerning the relationship of wages to quits and layoffs represents the primary contribution of this paper finally empirical results are presented that at least for a sample of very young men over a short period of time department of economics university of houston houston tx 77004 i thank finis welch dan mitchell and the referee for comments on an earlier version of this paper

effect of information formats on information services analysis of four selected agricultural commodities in the usa we analyze sources of information in agricultural markets to understand patterns of demand for decision support services and the division of labor in the supply of these services information formatting qualitative variation that determines accessibility and relevance of information in specific contexts prohibits universal access to informational content information formats give rise to both transaction costs and complementarities reflected in patterns of information exchange in commodity systems controlling for actors structural roles and levels of education we develop a hedonic model of information demand such that actors seek information that is formatted to meet their needs and capabilities employing survey data we explain elements of observed patterns of information exchange in four commodity systems in the usa results point to opportunities to expand our understanding of socioeconomic processes underlying production and consumption of decision support

social welfare when needs differ an axiomatic approach if the social welfare of households of different demographic type has to be evaluated we observe considerable disagreement about the way the composition of households is to be taken into account this paper makes an attempt to differentiate some of the various approaches it deals with four methods in order to make their normative content transparent an axiomatic approach is employed the methods are completely characterized and some of their implications are demonstrated

declining job security this article defines and analyzes job security in the context of implicit contracts designed to overcome incentive problems in the employment relationship contracts of this nature generate predictions concerning the relationship between job security parameters such as worker seniority and sectoral economic conditions and the probability of separations to test these predictions i estimate binomial and multinomial models of job separations using panel study of income dynamics psid data for the years 1976 93 the results are consistent with a decline over time in the incentives to maintain existing employment relationships for male workers and for skilled white collar women

wage structure and gender earnings differentials an international comparison using microdata to analyse the gender pay gap in ten industrialized nations we focus on the role of wage structure the prices of labour market skills in influencing the gender gap we find wage structure enormously important in explaining why the us gender gap is higher than that in most other countries we conclude that the us gap would be similar to that in sweden and australia the countries with the smallest gaps if the united states had their levels of wage inequality this finding reflects the larger penalty in the united states for those with low skill levels or employed in low wage sectors 650 o 75 the united states was amoung the countries with the largest differ entials oecd ilo usbls this paper uses microdata to analyse inter national differences in the gender pay gap among a sample of ten industrialized nations we focus particularly on explaining the surprisingly low ranking of the united states in comparison with other industrialized countries an advan tage of an international perspective is that countries vary considerably with respect to governmental policies women s relative labour market qualifications and wage setting institutions such variability allows one to infer reasons for differences in the pay gap and by implication the impact of alternative govern ment policies empirical research on gender pay gaps has traditionally focused on the role of gender differences in qualifications and on differences in the treatment of otherwise equally qualified male and female workers i e labour market dis crimination analyses of trends over time in the gender differential within countries as well as inter country comparisons of gender earnings ratios have tended to emphasize these types of gender specific factors an innovative feature of our study is to focus on the role of wage structure as an additional factor influencing the gender gap to analyse the impact of wage structure we adapt a framework developed by juhn et al 1991 to analyse trends over time in race differentials in the united states our findings suggest that labour market institutions that affect overall wage inequality have an extremely impor tant effect on the gender earnings gap wage structure describes the array of prices set for various labour market skills measured and unmeasured and rents received for employment in par

opportunistic behavior by firms in implicit pension contracts several studies have established that under the most common form of pension coverage benefits accrue disproportionately near the end of a worker s career such backloading establishes a penalty for early quitting but may also create an incentive for opportunistic firm behavior because benefits generally are a function of highest earnings when nominal earnings are expected to rise an employer can reduce pension liabilities by discharging workers prior to retirement this paper uses the national longitudinal survey of mature men to test whether such actions by employers are systematic we estimate that pension covered workers with mean losses are less likely to be discharged unexpected increases in pension losses due to increases in inflation however raise the risk of discharge we find no evidence that the minimum vesting standards of the employees retirement income security act reduces the likelihood of discharge for older workers who previously were not vested these results are consistent with an implicit pension contract under which employer compliance is enforced by reputation

a theory of quits and layoffs with efficient turnover this paper answers the efficient turnover literature s long silence regarding the quit layoff distinction treating quits as worker initiated separations and layoffs as firm initiated separations i establish that the existence of layoffs is compatible with optimizing workers and firms forming and dissolving employment matches to exploit all the gains from trade the efficient turnover approach is shown to be consistent with many empirical regularities that distinguish quits from layoffs structural implications of the model are tested on data from the psid

reversions of excess pension assets after takeovers this article evaluates pension asset reversions as a source of takeover gains in our sample of 413 takeovers pension funds were reverted by 15 1 of acquirers in the two years following hostile takeovers compared to 8 4 in the two years following friendly takeovers reversions following takeovers tend to occur in unit benefit plans where the potential for wealth transfer is the greatest these results are consistent with the view that hostile takeovers breach implicit contracts between firms and employees we estimate that the reversions can on average explain approximately 11 of the takeover premium in cases where they actually occur reversions are too small to be the sole or even dominant source of takeover gains

the welfare state in transition reforming the swedish model acknowledgments introduction richard b freeman robert topel birgitta swedenborg 1 generating equality and eliminating poverty the swedish way anders bjorklund richard b freeman 2 public employment taxes and the welfare state in sweden sherwin rosen 3 tax policy in sweden erik norrman charles e mclure jr 4 wage policy and restructuring the swedish labor market since 1960 per anders edin robert topel 5 the effects of sweden s welfare state on labor supply incentives thomas aronsson james r walker 6 an evaluation of the swedish active labor market policy new and received wisdom anders forslund alan b krueger 7 taxes and subsidies in swedish unemployment lars ljungqvist thomas j sargent 8 the social costs of regulation and lack of competition in sweden a summary stefan folster sam peltzman 9 industrial policy employer size and economic performance in sweden steven j davis magnus henrekson 10 a heckscher ohlin view of sweden competing in the global marketplace edward e leamer per lundborg contributors author index subject index

do place based tax incentives create jobs abstract in this paper we evaluate the effectiveness of place based payroll taxes in stimulating local employment by exploiting a unique policy setting in norway where a system of geographically differentiated payroll taxes was suddenly abolished due to an eu regulation the reform was enforced independently of the regional labor market developments creating arguably exogenous variation in the payroll tax rates that firms in different local labor markets faced over time we find evidence of partial shifting of payroll tax increases on to worker wages as well as a significant decline in local employment these findings suggest that in settings with some degrees of wage rigidity place based payroll tax incentives can be effective in stimulating local employment

standard risk aversion and efficient risk sharing abstract this paper analyzes the risk attitude and investment behavior of a group of heterogeneous consumers who face an uninsurable background risk it is shown that standard risk aversion at the individual level does not imply standard risk aversion at the group level under efficient risk sharing this points to a potential divergence between individual and collective portfolio choices in the presence of background risk we show that if the members absolute risk tolerance is increasing and satisfies a strong form of concavity then the group has standard risk aversion

interpreting panel data on job tenure tenure responses in the panel study of income dynamics psid and the national longitudinal surveys are often inconsistent with calendar time these inconsistencies pose special problems in the psid because job changes cannot be identified directly so researchers must infer them from error ridden tenure data we use alternative rules for partitioning psid data into jobs and then estimate several wage and mobility models to assess the sensitivity of parameter estimates to the partitioning method we also assess the importance of replacing raw tenure data with imputed measures that are internally consistent

economic change and rising income inequality in the oslo region the importance of knowledge intensive business services wessel t economic change and rising income inequality in the oslo region the importance of knowledge intensive business services regional studies the growth of market income inequality in the oslo region of norway between 1993 and 2004 is investigated using two measures it is shown that most of the change occurred within knowledge intensive business services and further within demographic subgroups changes in mean income between group inequality and shifts in the balance between segments of the economy are of minor importance the results support a combined focus on productive paths and institutions labour relations in particular appear as an important explanation however labour relations can hardly explain why men rather than women and western immigrants rather than non western immigrants converge towards employment in high profit businesses this particular pattern requires research beyond the economic and institutional landscape wessel t

outsourcing labor market pooling and labor contracts this paper considers the interaction between input sharing and labor market pooling in urban areas in particular it examines the impact of the size of a city and business risks on the organizational structures of firms located in urban agglomerations and it also discusses the impact of organizational structure on incentives to insure workers against income risks it is shown that manufacturing firms suffer from a coordination game in their decision to outsource production the existence of idiosyncratic risks causes manufacturers to refrain from outsourcing the incentives to offer wage and employment protection to workers are more pronounced when manufacturers outsource the production of their inputs to a local market which mitigates the impact of labor market pooling

the decentralization of collective bargaining a literature review and comparative analysis the author reviews evidence that the bargaining structure is becoming more decentralized in sweden australia the former west germany italy the united kingdom and the united states although in

a theory of dual labor markets with application to industrial policy discrimination and keynesian unemployment this paper develops a model of dual labor markets based on employers need to motivate workers in order to elicit effort from their workers employers may find it optimal to pay more than the going wage this changes fundamentally the character of labor markets the model is applied to a wide range of labor market phenomena it provides a coherent framework for understanding the claims of industrial policy advocates it also can provide the basis for a theory of occupational segregation and discrimination that will not be eroded by market forces finally the model provides the basis for a theory of involuntary unemployment

is job stability in the us falling reconciling trends in the current population survey and panel study of income dynamics this article considers whether two commonly used sources of information on employer tenure the panel study of income dynamics and the current population survey yield systematically different trends in employer tenure little evidence of a discrepancy between the data sets in the 1980s or 1990s is found when comparable samples variable definitions and time frames are used neither data set shows a significant trend in the share of workers with 1 year or less of tenure while both data sets show an increase in the fraction of men with less than 10 years of tenure starting in the late 1980s

has job stability declined yet new evidence for the 1990 s we update the evidence on changes in job stability through the mid 1990s using recently released current population survey data for 1995 that parallel earlier job tenure supplements in the aggregate job stability declined modestly in the first half of the 1990s moreover the relatively small aggregate changes mask rather sharp declines in stability for workers with more than a few years of tenure nonetheless the data available to this point do not support the conclusion that the downward shift in job stability for more tenured workers and the more modest decline in aggregate job stability reflect long term trends

workers trust funds and the logic of wage profiles this paper defines a concept a worker s trust fund which is useful in analyzing optimal age earnings profiles the trust fund represents what a worker loses if dismissed from a job for shirking in considering whether to work or shirk a worker weighs the potential loss due to forfeiture of the trust fund if caught shirking against the benefits from reduced effort this concept is used to show that the implicit bonding in upward sloping age earnings profiles is not a perfect substitute for an explicit up front performance bond or employment fee it is also shown that the second best optimal earnings profile in the absence of an up front employment fee pays total compensation in excess of market clearing in a variety of stylized cases

equilibrium asset prices with undiversifiable labor income risk abstract in a two period lucas tree economy in which ex ante identical but ex post dissimilar agents face undiversifiable labor income risk calibrating a wrong representative agent model results in overstating the equilibrium riskfree rate and in understating the equilibrium equity premium if the utility function exhibits decreasing absolute risk aversion and decreasing absolute prudence these behavioral assumptions provide as a consequence a theoretical rationale for the often advanced conjecture that nontraded risk contributes to the solution of the riskfree rate and equity premium puzzles

losing heart the effect of job displacement on health job reallocation is considered a key characteristic of well functioning labor markets as more productive firms grow and less productive ones contract or close despite its potential benefits for t

a short history of labour turnover job tenure and job security 1975 93 how extensive is labour turnover and how does it vary by gender skill and over time using survey data from britain between 1975 and 1993 this study documents these features and discovers evidence of widening inequalities in job stability and security for the majority still in full time employment average job durations are little changed from those of twenty years ago for those seeking employment however current patterns of job creation mean that entry jobs are now of shorter duration more unstable and relatively less well paid nor do entry jobs offer sufficient access into stable jobs as a result entry jobs are increasingly taken by those with a partner in work polarising the distribution of employment and thereby disenfranchising around one fifth of working age households from regular access to earned incomes copyright 1995 by oxford university press

employer size or skill group size effect on wages the authors analyze explanations for firm or establishment size effects on wages one theory is that each firm faces an upward sloping supply curve for labor implying that the number of any particular type of worker should matter for his or her level of pay rather than the total number of workers in the firm to test this hypothesis the authors add the log of skill group size to the standard log wage equation results indicate that the traditional employer size effect on wages dwindles away once control for the number of workers of the same skill group educational type as the observed individual within the establishment is added to the equation the skill group size effect on wages is substantial after controlling for both individual and establishment specific heterogeneity a dwindling employer size effect and a significant group size effect remain

do hostile takeovers reduce extramarginal wage payments hostile takeovers may have significant implications for long term employment contracts if they facilitate the opportunistic expropriation of extramarginal wage payments we test the expropriation hypothesis by studying the relationship between proxies for extramarginal wage payments and subsequent hostile takeover activity this paper improves on existing research by using firm and establishment level data from a salary survey of employers in addition we observe characteristics of wage and employment structures both before and after the occurrence of a hostile takeover and hence can see whether the data are consistent with reductions in extramarginal wage payments following such takeovers results from this ex post experiment provide evidence consistent with the hypothesis that hostile takeovers result in reductions of extramarginal wage payments to more tenured workers mostly through cutbacks in senior positions at firms with relatively steep wage profiles

risk sharing and crises global games of regime change with endogenous wealth abstract i add heterogeneous agents and risk sharing opportunities to a global game of regime change the novel insight is that when there is a risk sharing motive fundamentals drive not only individual behavior but also select which individuals are more relevant for the likelihood of a crisis because of endogenous shifts in wealth if attacking is relatively safe attack behavior in the global game and trade in state contingent assets feed back into each other this feedback implies that multiple equilibria may exist even if signal noise becomes arbitrarily small in addition heterogeneity in risk aversion within the population amplifies the influence of the state of the economy on the probability of a crisis

the covariance structure of earnings in great britain 1991 1999 i analyse the dynamic structure of earnings in great britain for the period 1991 99 by decomposing the earnings covariance structure into its permanent and transitory components according to the british household panel study data earnings inequality of male full time employees increases over the 1990s however earnings mobility may have also increased that is for this period earnings persistence falls this evidence is at odds with previous literature on earnings dynamics both for britain and other oecd countries moreover human capital and job related characteristics account for nearly all persistent earnings differences and the transitory component is highly persistent

a picture of job insecurity facing british men this paper considers three aspects of the job insecurity facing british men in the last two decades the probability of becoming unemployed the costs of unemployment in terms of real wages losses and the probability that the continuously employed will experience substantial real wage losses the first of these has not risen in the last two decades the second has risen by around 50 percent and the third has risen particularly for the top skill groups

seniority sectoral decline and employee retention an analysis of layoff unemployment spells we investigate the effect of tenure on employee retention under varying labor market conditions using a competing risks analysis of recall and new job acceptance applied to layoff unemployment spell data from waves 15 and 16 1982 83 of the panel study of income dynamics we find that adverse conditions sectoral employment decline significantly reduce the positive tenure effect on recall probabilities this result is consistent with firm default on delayed payment contracts and does not appear to reflect the effect of technological change on the value of firm specific investments

how many us jobs might be offshorable using detailed information on the nature of work done in over 800 us bureau of labor statistics occupational codes this paper ranks those occupations according to how easy hard it is to offshore the work either physically or electronically using this ranking it is estimated that somewhere between 22 and 29 of all us jobs are or will be potentially offshorable within a decade or two no estimate is made of how many jobs will actually be offshored since the rankings are subjective two alternatives are presented one is entirely objective the other is an independent subjective ranking in general they corroborate the rankings albeit not perfectly it is found that there is little or no correlation between an occupation s offshorability and the skill level of its workers as measured either by educational attainment or wages however it appears that controlling for education the most highly offshorable occupations were already paying significantly lower wages in 2004

job tenure and job mobility in britain using work history data from the british household panel survey the authors examine job mobility and job tenure over the period 1915 90 british men and women held an average of five jobs over the course of their work lives and half of all lifetime job changes occurred in the first ten years separation hazards were higher for more recent cohorts implying an increase in job instability as jobs accumulated average tenure lengthened but the proportion of involuntary separations increased for both men and women the rise in job instability was particularly marked in the lowest occupational classification in general job insecurity was greater for men than women

pension reversions and worker stockholder wealth transfers this paper examines the relative importance of transfers from workers to shareholders in the firm s decision to terminate their overfunded defined benefit pension plans in contrast to earlier studies i find evidence that firms terminate their pension plans to relieve themselves of implicit promises to workers of future compensation in addition financing and tax considerations influence the reversion decision the results suggest that the 1986 excise tax on asset reversions reduced termination for reversion by 36 percent in 1986

the forbes 400 and the pareto wealth distribution abstract statistical regularities at the top end of the wealth distribution are examined using the forbes 400 lists during 1988 2003 we find that the wealth is distributed according to a pareto power law distribution with an average exponent of 1 49

income risk the tax benefit system and the demand for children because children represent an irreversible commitment parents might hedge against higher income risk by having fewer children we show that under plausible assumptions recent increases in income risk might have reduced prudent parents desired fertility responses to this via the tax benefit system are considered introducing an expected revenue neutral transfer cum child benefit system under proportional taxation which lets the government share the household s income risk increases desired fertility for parents who would choose to have small families in this system s absence pound for pound the targeted child benefit enhances fertility more than the lump sum transfer

do firm boundaries matter in his famous article the nature of the firm ronald coase 1937 raised two fundamental questions that have spawned a large body of research do firm boundaries affect the allocation of resources and what determines where firm boundaries are drawn while the first of these questions has received some theoretical attention notably oliver williamson 1975 1985 benjamin klein et al 1978 and sanford grossman and oliver hart 1986 it has largely been ignored empirically instead the empirical work in this area discussed in the other articles in this session has addressed the second question by analyzing the determinants of vertical integration thus while we know something about the forces that determine firm boundaries we know relatively little about how these boundaries affect actual firm behavior this is a major limitation in our understanding of the nature of the firm to begin to assess how firm boundaries affect behavior we analyze whether there are differences between integrated and nonintegrated chemical manufacturers in their investments in production capacity we focus on producers of vinyl chloride monomer vcm the sole use of which is in the production of the widely used waterproof plastic polyvinyl chloride pvc vcm is a homogenous commodity and is traded in relatively liquid markets moreover there is no obvious production link between vcm and pvc other than that one is an input into the other for example pvc is not a byproduct of vcm production nevertheless twothirds of vcm producers in our sample are integrated downstream into pvc the existing literature would ask why we observe this degree of integration we ask instead whether integrated and nonintegrated vcm producers invest differently in production capacity

changes in job security and their causes an empirical analysis for france 1982 2002 abstract in this paper we analyze the changes in the risks of involuntary job loss in france between 1982 and 2002 we find that these risks are higher in the 1990s than they were in the 1980s we develop an econometric analysis to separate the effects of institutional changes from the effects of new technologies our estimates show that the rise in job loss rates is significantly more pronounced in industries that have the largest share of r d workers and the largest rate of new technologies users these findings suggest that technological changes contribute to decreasing the incentive to keep workers for long period of time and to increasing job insecurity

job stability in the united states two key attributes of a job are its wage and its duration much has been made of changes in the wage distribution in the 1980s but little attention has been given to job durations since hall we fill this void by examining the temporal evolution of job retention rates in u s labor markets using data assembled from the sequence of current population survey job tenure supplements there have been relative declines in job stability for some of the groups that experienced the sharpest declines in relative wages however we find that aggregate job retention rates have remained stable

the equal pay act as an experiment to test theories of the labour market the uk equal pay act of 1970 resulted in a large rise in the relative earnings of women in the early 1970s as this change unlike most wage changes was largely exogenous to employers one can think of this episode as an experiment for testing different theories of the labour market hence study of the effects of the equal pay act should be given considerable weight and is likely to have wider implications about the operation of labour markets most models of the labour market used by economists assume that employment is demand determined at least after a large positive shock to the wage these models would predict that female relative employment should have fallen after the introduction of the equal pay act yet it is hard to find evidence of this this paper argues that female relative employment did not fall because the female labour market is in part monopsonistic

unemployment shocks and income distribution how did the nordic countries fare during their crises we study the inequality of disposable income in denmark finland norway and sweden during the late 1980s and early 1990s when unemployment rose dramatically in all four countries a standard measure of inequality the gini coefficient was surprisingly stable in all countries during this period by decomposing the gini into income components we test hypotheses about the reasons for this stable income distribution our most straightforward hypothesis that rising unemployment benefits counteracted the impact of more unequally distributed earnings receives only limited support more complex mechanisms seem to have been at work jel classification d30 d31 j60

effects of background risks on cautiousness with an application to a portfolio choice problem we provide necessary and sufficient conditions on an individual s expected utility function under which any zero mean idiosyncratic risk increases cautiousness the derivative of the reciprocal of the absolute risk aversion which is the key determinant for this individual s demand for options and portfolio insurance