global risk investment and emotions we investigate a novel dynamic choice problem in an experiment where emotions are measured through self reports the choice problem concerns the investment of an amount of money in a safe option and a risky option when there is a global risk of losing all earnings from both options including any return from the risky option our key finding is that global risk can reduce the amount invested in the risky option this result cannot be explained by expected utility or by its main contenders rank dependent utility and cumulative prospect theory an explanation is offered by taking account of emotions using the emotion data from the experiment and recent psychological findings

mobility behavior of the elderly mobility patterns of the elderly provide a particularly interesting theoretical subcase of a more general migration model which interacts individual specific traits e g health and retirement status and location specific traits e g amenities rents and wages the spatially invariant incomes pensions dividends etc of the retired are shown to lead to migration toward areas where the wage and rent compensation for amenities necessary for spatial equilibrium occurs primarily in the labor market rather than in the land market empirical evidence appears to be consistent with theoretical expectations more investigation however is clearly desirable

examining the role of economic opportunity and amenities in explaining population redistribution abstract this paper develops a model of migration integrating equilibrium and disequilibrium components in which individuals and firms form rational expectations about future opportunities levels of migration are derived as functions of variations in factors influencing migrant labor demand economic opportunity and migrant labor supply residential amenities the model is used to estimate the extent to which migration in the united states over the period 1950 1980 is determined by these two classes of exogenous factors

migration regional equilibrium and the estimation of compensating differentials in this study we have developed an improved model of net migration that encompasses both equilibrium and disequilibrium components instrumental variables fixed effects estimates of the model with time series data for 51 areas in the united states over the period 1971 1988 support the importance of both equilibrium and disequilibrium factors in migration excerpt

income distribution political instability and investment abstract this paper successfully tests on a sample of 71 countries for the period 1960 85 the following hypotheses income inequality by fuelling social discontent increases sociopolitical instability the latter by creating uncertainty in the politico economic environment reduces investment as a consequence income inequality and investment are inversely related since investment is a primary engine of growth this paper identifies a channel for an inverse relationship between income inequality and growth we measure socio political instability with indices which capture the occurrence of more or less violent phenomena of political unrest and we test our hypotheses by estimating a two equation model in which the endogenous variables are investment and an index of socio political instability our results are robust to sensitivity analysis on the specification of the model and the measure of political instability and are unchanged when the model is estimated using robust regression techniques

internal migration and human capital theory to what extent is it selective empirical studies of internal labor migration modeling average outcomes suggest migrants move to enhance returns to their labor in contrast major international surveys show less than a third of internal migrants as motivated by employment reasons using swedish panel data for the years 2001 2009 this paper addresses this disconnect by examining the full distribution of migrant income changes results from initial cem matching and quantile regression suggest that large returns to internal migration are mostly captured by the higher educated those initially low in the income distribution and those heading into the largest metropolitan regions much if not most of migration outcomes are however a wash and indeed often negative in terms of pay off this suggests models of average outcomes as insufficient in addressing human capital motivated migration

why are power couples increasingly concentrated in large metropolitan areas using the panel study of income dynamics psid we test costa and kahn s colocation hypothesis which predicts that power couples couples in which both spouses have college degrees are more likely to migrate to the largest cities than part power couples or power singles we find no support for this hypothesis instead regression analyses suggest that only the education of the husband and not the joint education profile of the couple affects the propensity to migrate to large metropolitan areas the observed location trends are better explained by higher rates of power couple formation in larger metropolitan areas

monotone instrumental variables with an application to the returns to schooling for fifty years econometric analyses of treatment response have made extensive use of instrumental variable iv assumptions holding that mean response is constant across specified subpopulations of a population of interest 2 yet the credibility of mean independence conditions and other iv assumptions has often been a matter of considerable disagreement with much debate about whether some covariate is or is not a valid instrument in an application of interest there is therefore good reason to consider weaker but more credible assumptions to this end we introduce monotone instlumental variable miv assumptions holding that mean response varies weakly monotonically across specified subpopulations we study the identifying power of these miv assumptions and give an empirical application the findings reported here add to the literature developing nonparametric bounds on treatment effects 3 this paper uses the same formal setup as manski 1997 there is a probability space j x2 p of individuals each member j of population j has observable covariates xi e x and a response function yj t y mapping the mutually exclusive and exhaustive treatments t e t into outcomes yj t e y person j has a realized treatment zj e t and a realized outcome y 1 y zi both of which are observable the latent outcomes yj t

compensating differentials in emerging labor and housing markets estimates of quality of life in russian cities abstract the purpose of this paper is to see if an equilibrium model of compensating differences for amenities can be applied to a major transition economy russia we analyze russian labor and housing markets using data from the russian longitudinal monitoring survey rlms augmented by city and regional specific characteristics from other sources our estimated wage and housing value equations suggest that workers are compensated for differences in climate environmental conditions ethnic conflicts crime rates and health conditions after controlling for worker characteristics occupation industry and economic conditions and various housing characteristics we find evidence that these compensating differentials exist even after controlling for the regional pay differences regional coefficients used by the russian government to compensate public sector workers for living in regions that are designated as less desirable quality of life as measured by a group of eleven amenities varies substantially the highest ranked cities tend to be in relatively warm areas and areas in the western european part of the country our quality of life index is positively correlated with net migration into a region suggesting workers are attracted to amenity rich locations overall we find that a model of compensating differentials with controls for disequilibrium yields useful information about compensation for location specific amenities and quality of life in this large transition economy

disappointment in decision making under uncertainty decision analysis requires that two equally desirable consequences should have the same utility and vice versa most analyses of financial decision making presume that two consequences with the same dollar outcome will be equally preferred however winning the top prize of 10 000 in a lottery may leave one much happier than receiving 10 000 as the lowest prize in a lottery this paper explores the implications of disappointment a psychological reaction caused by comparing the actual outcome of a lottery to one s prior expectations for decision making under uncertainty explicit recognition that decision makers may be paying a premium to avoid potential disappointment provides an interpretation for some known behavioral paradoxes and suggests that decision makers may be sensitive to the manner in which a lottery is resolved the concept of disappointment is integrated into utility theory in a prescriptive model

the role of site and job characteristics in hedonic wage models recent economic analyses of wage rate differentials have generally used some form of hedonic framework in explaining the observed wage structure while these studies have adopted this common theoretical justification the models have been used to serve two distinct objectives the first of these is an empirical test of the theory of equalizing differences originally introduced by adam smith in such applications see brown 7 lucas 26 olson 28 thaler and rosen 36 and viscusi 40 as examples specific job characteristics measured with technical information or with worker perceptions have been used to explain differences in wage rates across individuals and jobs while there are a number of these studies there has not been a consistent pattern of support for the theory indeed with the exception of job risks many characteristics that a priori would be expected to lead to equalizing differences have often exhibited incorrect and or statistically insignificant measured effects on wages the second use for wage models has been as the basis for an index of the quality of life in urban areas in this framework households are assumed to select residential locations so as to maximize their individual welfare migration between cities provides the mechanism for an equilibrium household assignment under ideal conditions the pattern of equilibrium wage rates reflects the attributes of the cities involved see hoch 20 izraeli 23 cropper lo cropper and arriaga salinas 111 and rosen 31 as examples the purpose of this paper is to develop a model for wage rate differentials that includes both job and site characteristics and to estimate the model with a large micro data set our wage models provide estimates of a market clearing envelope which includes each of two types of past analyses as a

nonparametric estimation of labor supply and demand factors this article derives sharp bounds on labor supply and demand shift variables within a nonparametric simultaneous equations model using only observations of the intersection of upward sloping supply curves and downward sloping demand curves furthermore i demonstrate that these bounds tighten with the imposition of plausible assumptions on the distribution of the disturbance terms using katz and murphy s 1992 panel data on wages and labor inputs i estimate these bounds and assess the supply and demand factors that determine changes within male female wage differentials and the college wage premium

dynamic choice and the common ratio effect an experimental investigation the common ratio effect is a well attested violation of expected utility theory this paper uses four principles of dynamic choice to characterise alternative theoretical strategies for explaining the effect it reports an experiment which tests these principles and by implication several well known accounts of the common ratio effect unlike previous work the experimental design uses real financial incentives without presupposing any dynamic choice principles we find violation of a principle of timing independence which is part of most existing theories of dynamic choice we examine the implications of this finding for decision theory and economics

new estimates of quality of life in urban areas implicit markets capture compensation for intraurban and interregional differe nces in amenities and yield differences in housing prices and wages these pecuniary differences become preference based weights in a qual ity of life index hedonic equations are estimated using microdata fr om the 1980 census and assembled county based amenity data on climati c environmental and urban conditions ranking of 253 urban counties reveals substantial variation within as well as among the 185 urba n areas the quality of life differences across counties within one s msa is almost one half of the difference between the top and bottom ranked counties in the nation copyright 1988 by american economic association

disappointment and dynamic consistency in choice under uncertainty the central proposition of disappointment theory is that an individual forms expectations about uncertain prospects and that if the actual consequence turns out to be worse than or better than that expectation the individual experiences a sensation of disappointment or elation generating a decrement or increment of utility which modifies the basic utility derived from the consequence by incorporating a simple disappointment elation function into a model of individual choice many observed violations of conventional expected utility axioms including violations of savage s sure thing principle and the isolation effect can be predicted and defended as rational and dynamically consistent behaviour

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

power couples changes in the locational choice of the college educated 1940 1990 college educated couples are increasingly located in large metropolitan areas these areas were home to 32 percent of all college educated couples in 1940 39 percent in 1970 and 50 percent in 1990 we investigate whether this trend can be explained by increasing urbanization of the college educated or the growth of dual career households and the resulting severity of the colocation problem we argue that the latter explanation is the primary one smaller cities may therefore experience reduced inflows of human capital relative to the past and thus become poorer

multimarket amenity compensation and the behavior of the elderly recent studies have argued that compensation for amenities occurs in general in both labor and land markets see glenn c blomquist mark c berger and john p hoehn 1988 hereafter bbh as well as sherwin rosen 1979 donald r haurin 1980 and jennifer roback 1982 1988 if this is true desirable locations would be characterized ceteris paribus by some mix of higher rents and lower wages due to the influx of people demanding the consumption amenities this seemingly obvious point has important implications household valuations of location fixed amenities are systematically understated by studies that consider only the wage or rent compensation separately for example access to the central business district is valued in urban economics through the rent gradient yet highaccess cities will have lower overall wages than low access cities similarly wage studies valuing such amenities across labor markets understate the value of amenities by ignoring any rent compensation those authoring such single market studies have at least implicitly justified the approach with the notion that one first selects a labor market area finds a job then at a second stage chooses a location in that labor market finds a house such behavior is only rational under quite restrictive assumptions since one would not generally select a labor market independently of residence traits and housing costs and vice versa the multimarket amenity compensation hypothesis that amenities are priced in both land and labor markets has been assumed on theoretical grounds by various researchers interested in constructing quality of life indexes notably bbh and roback 1982 here we offer a test of the hypothesis relying on much of bbh s county data and results the test is of considerable interest in its own right as it yields several implications about the behavior and wellbeing of the retired these implications stem directly from the exit of the retired from the labor force the data employed and the nature of an appropriate test are discussed in section i which also presents the empirical results these results strongly support the contention that amenities are capitalized in both land and labor markets section ii concludes the note and presents some policy implications

psychological expected utility theory and anticipatory feelings we extend expected utility theory to situations in which agents experience feelings of anticipation prior to the resolution of uncertainty we show how these anticipatory feelings may result in time inconsistency we provide an example from portfolio theory to illustrate the potential impact of anticipation on asset prices

quality of the business environment versus quality of life do firms and households like the same cities this paper develops a new measure of the quality of business environment that complements existing measures of the quality of life an annual panel of these measures is constructed and analyzed for 37 cities from 1977 to 1995 findings indicate that many cities attractive to firms are unattractive to households and vice versa in addition the size of a city s workforce increases with improvements in the quality of the business environment in contrast cities most likely to be dominated by retirees are those that are less attractive to firms additional specifications support theoretical arguments that retirees are drawn to cities in which local attributes are capitalized into lower wages rather than higher rents

ownership risk investment and the use of natural resources the effect of insecure ownership on ordinary investment and natural resource use is examined insecure ownership is postulated to depend on the type of government regime in power and the prevalence of political violence or instability the political determinants of economy wide investment are estimated from cross country data and the results are used to form an index of ownership security when introduced into empirical models of natural resource use this index has a significant and quantitatively important effect on the use of forests and petroleum contrary to conventional wisdom ownership risk slows resource use in some circumstances

changes in the distribution of male and female wages accounting for employment composition using bounds this paper examines changes in the distribution of wages using bounds to allow for the impact of nonrandom selection into work we show that worst case bounds can be informative however because employment rates in the united kingdom are often low they are not informative about changes in educational or gender wage differentials thus we explore ways to tighten these bounds using restrictions motivated from economic theory with these assumptions we find convincing evidence of an increase in inequality within education groups changes in educational differentials and increases in the relative wages of women

why are population flows so persistent abstract a neoclassical model of local growth is developed by integrating the static equilibrium underlying compensating differential theory as the steady state of a neoclassical growth model numerical results show that even very small frictions to labor and capital mobility along with small changes in local productivity or local quality of life suffice to cause highly persistent population flows wages and house prices in contrast jump most of the way to their new steady state the model suggests that cross sectional regressions of local population growth can help to identify past and present changes in the determinants of representative agent welfare more generally it provides a framework for interpreting observed local growth rates

developments in non expected utility theory the hunt for a descriptive theory of choice under risk this article reviews recent developments in the economic theory of individual decision making under risk since the 1950s it has been known that individual choices violate the standard model of expected utility in predictable ways considerable research effort has now been devoted to the project of developing a superior descriptive model following an overview of non expected utility theories which distinguishes between conventional and non conventional approaches the paper seeks to assess these alternative models in terms of empirical success using laboratory and field data and theoretical usefulness the closing sections reflect on some new directions emerging in this literature

a simple preference foundation of cumulative prospect theory with power utility most empirical studies of rank dependent utility and cumulative prospect theory have assumed power utility functions both for gains and for losses as it turns out a remarkably simple preference foundation is possible for such models tail independence a weakening of comonotonic independence which underlies all rank dependent models together with constant proportional risk aversion suffice in the presence of common assumptions weak ordering continuity and first stochastic dominance to imply these models thus sign dependence the different treatment of gains and losses and the separation of decision weights and utility are obtained free of charge

incentive systems in a real effort experiment in the reported experiment different payment schemes are examined on their incentive effects payments based on individual team and relative performance are compared subjects conducted computerized tasks that required substantial effort the results show that individual and team payment induced the same effort levels in team production free riding occurred but it was compensated by many subjects providing more effort than in case of individual pay effort was higher but more variable in tournaments while in case of varying abilities workers with relatively low ability worked very hard and drove up effort of the others finally attitudes towards work and other workers differed strongly between conditions

swimming upstream trends in the gender wage differential in the 1980s using michigan panel study of income dynamics data for 1979 and 1988 we analyze how a falling gender wage gap occurred despite changes in wage structure unfavorable to low wage workers the decrease is traced to gender specific factors which more than counterbalanced changes in measured and unmeasured prices working against women supply shifts net of demand were unfavorable for women generally and hurt high skilled more than middle and low skilled women by analyzing wages we find support for the notion of a gender twist in supply and demand having its largest negative effect on high skilled women

local amenities and life cycle migration do people move for jobs or fun abstract do households move for jobs or fun and where do they go when they move we address these questions using the 1970 2000 us census based on a panel of quality of life and business environment measures households prefer msas in warm coastal areas and non metropolitan locations while firms prefer large growing cities in addition cities with improving business environments acquire increasing shares of workers especially workers with high levels of human capital cities with improving consumer amenities become relatively more populated by retirees further analysis of individual level migration decisions indicates that regardless of marital status young highly educated households tend to move towards places with higher quality business environments this tendency is especially pronounced among highly educated couples who are more subject to job market co location problems in contrast regardless of education couples near retirement tend to move away from places with favorable business environments and towards places with highly valued consumer amenities these patterns help explain why areas unattractive to both households and business have struggled as with upstate new york while the sun belt and other regions are thriving