persistence of initial debt in the long term employment dynamics of new firms this paper investigates whether a firm s future growth is independent of its initial debt structure the non parametric test consists of determining whether the conditional size distribution for firms surviving through early years of life depends upon debt to asset ratio at birth initially i test for initial size dependence in the growth process by applying pakes and ericson 1998 procedure i then test the hypothesis that initial debt to asset ratios are irrelevant to growth of ten year old manufacturing firms i reject the null of independence and find evidence of a non monotonic relationship between age ten conditional size and the initial debt to asset ratio ce texte examine la question a savoir si la croissance future d une firme depend de la structure initiale de sa dette le test non parametrique consiste a determine si la distribution conditionnelle de la taille des firmes qui survivent au cours des premieres annees depend du ratio dette actif a la naissance l auteur teste d abord l independance de la taille initiale et du processus de croissance a l aide de la procedure de pakes et ericson 1998 et ensuite l hypothese que le ratio initial dette actif n est pas pertinent pour expliquer la croissance de firmes manufacturieres qui ont survecu dix ans l hypothese nulle d independance est rejetee et on trouve trace d une relation non monotone entre la taille conditionnelle a dix ans et le ratio initial de la dette sur l actif

hospital choices hospital prices and financial incentives to physicians we estimate an insurer speci c preference function which rationalizes hospital referrals for privately insured births in california the function is additively separable in a hospital price paid by the insurer the distance traveled and plan and severity speci c hospital xed eects capturing hospital quality we use an inequality estimator that allows for errors in price and detailed hospital severity interactions and obtain markedly dierent results than those from a logit the estimates indicate that insurers with more capitated physicians are more responsive to price capitated plans send patients further to utilize similar quality lower priced hospitals but the cost quality trade odoes not vary with capitation rates the patient protection and aordable care act of 2010 includes provisions to establish ac countable care organizations acos in the medicare program these are groups of health care providers that oer services to a large number of patients and are eligible to share in any cost savings they achieve for the medicare program 1 private sector acos are forming in parallel to this initiative often with very similar structures and payment arrangements the proportion of savings acos keep is linked to their performance on quality standards the goal of the initiative is to reduce health care costs in both medicare and private insurance and to improve coordination of care the tying of cost savings to quality standards is designed to mitigate the concern that an increase in incentives to control costs might lead to a decrease in the quality of care the health policy literature has noted that similar cost control incentives are currently utilized by some health maintenance organizations hmos in california and elsewhere 2 in this paper we investigate the impact of these incentives on the cost and quality of care provided to patients focusing in particular on the choice of hospital for privately insured patients giving birth we use

stock market volatility and investment do only fundamentals matter the empirical evidence in the volatility literature suggests that movements in stock prices cannot be satisfactorily explained purely in terms of changes in fundamentals this paper shows how to obtain proxies for the fundamental and fad components of changes in stock prices and asks the question do only fundamentals matter for investment decisions we find that changes in investment are significantly associated with movements in both components of stock prices the point estimates suggest that changes in fundamentals have a greater effect than changes in non fundamentals the statistical significance of the difference between their coefficients depends upon the financing regime these conclusions are shown to be robust to modifications and extensions of the model

dividend taxes corporate investment and q abstract taxes on corporate distributions have traditionally been regarded as a double tax on corporate income this view implies that while the total effective tax rate on corporate source income affects real economic decisions the distribution of this tax burden between the shareholders and the corporation is irrelevant recent research has suggested an alternative to this traditional view one explanation of why firms in the united states pay dividends in spite of the heavy tax liabilities associated with this form of distribution is that the stock market capitalizes the tax payments associated with corporate distributions this capitalization leaves investors indifferent at the margin between a corporation s decision to pay out dividends or to retain earnings this alternative view holds that while changes in the dividend tax rate will affect shareholder wealth they will have no impact on corporate investment decisions this paper develops econometric tests which distinguish between these two views of dividend taxation by extending tobin s q theory of investment to incorporate taxes at both the corporate and personal levels the implications of each view for corporate investment decisions can be derived the competing views may be tested by comparing the performance of investment equations estimated under each theory s predictions british time series data are particularly appropriate for testing hypotheses about dividend taxes because of the substantial postwar variation in effective tax rates on corporate distributions the econometric results suggest that dividend taxes have important effects on investment decisions

moral hazard in lending and labor market volatility when the economy experiences a sharp economic downturn credit spreads widen and project financing costs for firms rise as funding sources begin to dry up the economy experiences a lengthy recovery with unemployment rates slow to return to full employment levels we develop a model that displays these features it relies on an interaction between labor search frictions and firm level moral hazard that is accentuated during recessions the model is capable of addressing the shimer puzzle with labor market variables exhibiting significantly more volatility on average as a result of the heightened moral hazard concerns during these episodes that significantly deepen and prolong periods of high unemployment as vacancy postings fall dramatically and the job finding rate declines our mechanism is also found to induce internal shock propagation causing the peak response of output unemployment and wages to occur with a several quarter delay relative to a model without such frictions many other labor market variables also show slower recovery their return to preshock level occurs at a slower pace for a number of periods after the peak response

the importance of reporting conventions for the theory of corporate taxation abstract this paper shows that for the analysis of a tax policy it is important to be explicit about the reporting convention to which a corporation tax is required or allowed to adhere the paper shows that the corporation tax cannot be used to alter capital formation under uniform reporting a convention required by the majority of the oecd countries this tax is however a more useful policy tool in those oecd countries that have created the privilege of separate reporting fiscal depreciation makes the marginal valuation of equity differ from the marginal valuation of capital use of tax allowances directed to investment stimulus operates rather differently under the two reporting conventions

acquisitions and investment we derive a simple theoretical framework in which acquisitions are treated as an alternative way of obtaining capital goods our framework predicts that both investment and acquisitions are positively related to a firm s shadow value of capital we transform our theoretical specification into an econometric model which we then estimate using a long panel data set spanning 503 us firms over 15 consecutive years our results indicate that an increase in the shadow value of capital has approximately the same proportionate effect on the level of acquisitions as it does on investment this result proves to be robust to a variety of alternative specifications recent years have witnessed a dramatic increase in the number of corporate takeovers this tide of activity raises a number of questions about the causes and consequences of acquisitions what effects do takeovers have on research and development spending do takeovers reduce employment how important are tax considerations in motivating acquisitions do management objectives and or the availability of free cash flow play a role in acquisitions although these questions have been addressed in previous research no specific optimizing model has been put forward to explain the fundamental nature of the acquisition decision in this paper we propose such a model when a firm makes an acquisition it obtains assets in this way acquisitions and investment are similar activities which one might expect to be guided at least to a substantial extent by similar economic principles in this paper we specify and estimate a simple model that explicitly links a firm s acquisition activities to its investment choices the only unusual feature of this model is that these goods can be either purchased directly investment or obtained by taking over another firm acquisitions our model is based on the firm s intertemporal optimization problem under what are with this one exception standard assumptions our specification yields a pair of equations in which a firm s choices regarding acquisitions and investment are jointly determined and are influenced by the shadow value of capital as in many models of investment we assume that firms face convex costs of adjusting their capital stocks consequently the shadow value of capital may exceed its replacement cost firms for which the shadow value of capital is high relative to its purchase price will have an incentive to make relatively large capital purchases in relation to their existing capital stock under standard assumptions the shadow value of capital is reflected in the firm s stock market

aggregate investment the stock market and the q model robust results for six oecd countries abstract modern macroeconomists prefer the q approach for modelling aggregate investment despite the empirical superiority of jorgenson s neo classical approach this paper revisits this conflict its theoretical and empirical results make the case that in contrast to the original static q investment equation a new dynamic q equation is as satisfactory as jorgenson s equation from an empirical standpoint while being more satisfactory from a theoretical standpoint the paper identifies a theoretical and an empirical line of research in resolving the conflict between theorists and empiricists on the theory side the possibility of generating lags in a q investment equation via the structural q model is explored this period s investment cost depends on the investment level achieved last period the interpretation of this intertemporality combines adjustment costs and gestation lags the closed form q equation is an armax the explicit generation of lagged investment therefore accounts for the key stylized fact characterizing the investment data process the empirical line of research turns to data puzzles in the specification of a viable q equation it reconciles inter alia the non q evidence which claims a paramount link between stock prices and investment with the q non evidence which denies such a link exists more importantly the armax q equations is systematically gauged against the jorgenson and accelerator specifications across six oecd countries this comparative analysis established that the superiority of the new q equations over jorgenson s is robust

the incidence and allocation effects of a tax on corporate distributions abstract to study the effects of double taxation first at the corporation level then at the shareholder level this paper analyzes a model with a tax on all corporate distributions to equity owners and no other taxes contrary to the common view the tax is shown to have no subtitution effect and in particular no effect on the corporate choice between debt and equity via retained earnings finance the analysis opens to question certain arguments commonly used to support integration of corporation and individual income taxes via dividend relief

the price quantity sealed bid offer auction with pro rata rationing experimental evidence this study examines a price quantity sealed bid offer auction with pro rata rationing in risky and riskless settings an asset with a known distribution of possible values is traded in the risky setting results include prices and quantities less consistent with the competitive equilibrium than with other nash equilibria frequent overrevelation of quantities a 0 73 correlation between inferred and induced risk coefficients lower forgone profits for the nonrationed side of the market and relatively low efficiencies the riskless setting in which asset values are known exhibits many of the same characteristics but to a lesser degree coauthors are ann martin david senkow and galen sevcik copyright 1993 by royal economic society

capital tax reform and the real economy the effects of the 2003 dividend tax cut this paper tests whether the 2003 dividend tax cut one of the largest reforms ever to a us capital tax rate stimulated corporate investment and increased labor earnings using a quasi experimental design and us corporate tax returns from years 1996 2008 i estimate that the tax cut caused zero change in corporate investment and employee compensation economically the statistical precision challenges leading estimates of the cost of capital elasticity of investment or undermines models in which dividend tax reforms affect the cost of capital either way it may be difficult to implement an alternative dividend tax cut that has substantially larger near term effects jel c72 c78 c91

effects of deregulation and consolidation of the broadcast television industry this paper exploits deregulation in the 1990s to estimate viewership and revenue effects of consolidation in broadcast television then finds cost effects that explain the ownership structure given viewer ship and revenue effects results suggest that consolidation greatly increased profitability in an industry with otherwise declining profitability groups with broader national coverage attract more advertising per station joint ownership of two stations within a market and network ownership both allow for significant cost savings there is some evidence that within market consolidation allows stations to achieve local market power however both within market and across market consolidation appear to have boosted viewership on net jel g32 l13 l25 l51 l82 l88 deregulation of the telecommunications industry in the 1990s led to substantial consolidation in the local broadcast television industry which provoked considerable controversy critics of the deregulation argue that cost cutting led to lower quality programming broadcast groups counter that consolidation is necessary to make high quality broadcast programming viable in the face of increasing competition from other content providers that are not subject to the same strict ownership regulations as broadcasters to what extent did the consolidation that took place in the decade following deregulation actually improve the profitability of broadcast stations is there any evidence that consolidation had negative effects such as reduced programming quality or local market power a priori the answers are not obvious due to remaining regulations the vast majority of consolidation involved stations in different local markets which are not in direct competition with one another and are often hundreds of miles apart how does nexstar broadcasting s ownership of an nbc affiliated station in

the vanishing harberger triangle this paper shows that the double taxation of corporate dividends or profit repatriations implies a nucleus theory of the corporation after the firm is set up with a small stock of original capital it enters a phase of purely internal growth during which no dividends are paid and no shares are issued the phase terminates when an efficient stock of capital has been accumulated and dividends are paid during the growth phases the tax distortion is inversely related to the tax burden and it is larger than conventional formulae for the cost of internal and external equity finance suggest

profit sharing credit market imperfections and equilibrium unemployment we investigate the interaction between labour and credit market imperfections for equilibrium unemployment in the presence of profit sharing in a partial equilibrium with exogenous outside options increased bargaining power of banks has adverse employment effects in a general equilibrium with endogenous outside options this relationship is frequently reversed reduced credit market imperfections increase equilibrium unemployment if the labour market imperfections measured by the bargaining power of trade unions are sufficiently strong and the benefit replacement ratio is sufficiently high finally we show that higher bankruptcy risks increase equilibrium unemployment under similar conditions

gradual reforms of capital income taxation this paper analyzes the intertemporal allocation effects of anticipated tax rate changes reconsidering the recommendations of the meade committee in a perfect foresight general equilibrium model of economic growth it is shown that the r base or consumption tax can be more distortionary than an income tax and that a revenue neutral integration of corporate and personal taxation will lower social welfare moreover it is argued that a dividend tax dominates the r base tax because it places its distortions on the financial rather than on the real side of the economy copyright 1989 by american economic association

the effect of the stock market on investment a comparative study this paper is concerned with examining whether exogenous events whose only direct effect is to change stock prices can indirectly affect corporate investment through the stock price mechanism it is argued that the actual effect of share price changes depends on institutional considerations which affect the degree of managerial autonomy e g the extent of the use of the takeover mechanism gearing ratios and the role of employees in corporate decision making therefore it would be reasonable to expect the stock market to be less influential in japan or germany when compared with the u s or u k this paper provides some econometric evidence which supports this view in that once one has allowed for other influences on investment share prices provide no additional explanatory power for investment behaviour in japan or germany but they do affect investment in the u k and u s if one believes that the stock market is sometimes swayed by irrational considerations the absence of an influence of share prices on investment in japan or germany may then be regarded as an advantage

corporate finance side of the q theory of investment abstract this paper presents a model of a firm under uncertainty in which the financial and investment decisions are simultaneously determined if profits are small relative to investment the firm finances a constant fraction of incremental investment by debt and the rest by retentions if profits are large relative to investment a constant fraction of marginal finance comes from debt and the rest from new shares in these two financing regimes a one to one relationship between optimal investment and q can be derived no such relation exists in the third and intermediate regime in which incremental investment is entirely debt financed

mergers with differentiated products the case of the ready to eat cereal industry traditional merger analysis is difficult to implement when evaluating mergers in industries with differentiated products i discuss an alternative which consists of demand estimation and the use of a model of postmerger conduct to simulate the competitive effects of a merger i estimate a brand level demand system for ready to eat cereal using supermarket scanner data and use the estimates to 1 recover marginal costs 2 simulate postmerger price equilibria and 3 compute welfare effects under a variety of assumptions the methodology is applied to five mergers two of which occurred and for which i compare predicted to actual outcomes

a field study on matching with network externalities we study the effects of network externalities within a protocol for matching faculty to offices in a new building using web and survey data on faculty s attributes and choices we identify the different layers of the social network institutional affiliation coauthorships and friendships we quantify the effects of network externalities on choices and outcomes disentangle the layers of the networks and quantify their relative influence finally we assess the protocol used from a welfare perspective our study suggests the importance and feasibility of accounting for network externalities in assignment problems and evaluates techniques that can be employed to this end jel c78 c93 d62 d85 z13

corporation tax asymmetries and investment evidence from uk panel data theoretical work has emphasised the potentially powerful impact of corporation tax asymmetries on investment behaviour but empirical work has mainly been confined to the measurement of effective tax rates this paper uses panel data from 597 u k companies to ask are tax asymmetries important to understanding observed investment behaviour an optimising investment model is developed and estimated both as a q equation and a euler equation in which the cost of capital appears careful modelling of asymmetries does not noticeably improve the empirical performance of these equations possible explanations are discussed

taxes and growth in a financially underdeveloped country evidence from the chilean investment boom this paper argues that taxation of retained profits is particularly distortionary in an economy with good growth prospects and poorly developed financial markets because it primarily reduces the investment of financially constrained firms investment that has marginal product greater than the after tax market real interest rate contrarily taxes on distributed profits or capital gains primarily reduce the investment of financially unconstrained firms chile experienced a banking crisis over the period from 1982 to 1986 and in 1984 reduced its tax rate on retained profits from 50 percent to 10 percent we show that consistent with our theory there was a large increase in aggregate investment after the reform which was entirely funded by an increase in retained profits further we show that investment grew by more in industries that depend more on external financing according to the rajan and zingales 1998 measure finally we present some weak evidence from comparisons of investment rates across firms for several different measures of their likelihood of being financially constrained

the determinants of firms performance can finance constraints improve technical efficiency this paper analyses the mechanisms through which binding finance constraints can induce debt constrained firms to improve technical efficiency to guarantee positive profits this hypothesis is tested on a sample of firms belonging to the italian manufacturing technical efficiency scores are computed by estimating parametric production frontiers using the one stage approach as in battese and coelli battese g coelli t 1995 a model for technical efficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data empirical economics 20 325 332 the results support the hypothesis that a restriction in the availability of financial resources can affect positively efficiency 2004 elsevier b v all rights reserved

threshold effects of financial status on the cost frontiers of financial institutions in nondynamic panels this article applies hansen s 1999 2000 threshold regression model to estimate translog cost frontiers in the hope of shedding light on the banking industry s production processes and the extent of its technical efficiency te the threshold technique allows for the existence of multiple technologies of production distinguished by an exogenous threshold variable strong evidence of multiple technologies is found in the industry irrespective of which financial indicator as constructed by factor analysis defines the threshold variable cost savings and scale economies among the various underlying technologies are compared herein we also highlight the differences between the threshold results and the conventional cost frontier

mergers brand competition and the price of a pint abstract mergers in the uk brewing industry have reduced the number of national brewers from six to four the number of brands in contrast has remained relatively constant we analyze the effects of mergers on brand competition and pricing brand level demand equations are estimated from a panel of draft beers to model brand substitution possibilities we estimate the matrix of cross price elasticities semiparametrically our structural model is used to assess the strength of brand competition along various dimensions and to evaluate the mergers in particular we compute equilibria of pricing games with different numbers of players

problems with integrating corporate and personal income taxes in an open economy abstract this paper analyzes income tax integration in a small open economy when agents exploit all legal tax arbitrage opportunities the analysis shows that integration does not accomplish the objectives that have been attributed to it instead of eliminating the double taxation of equity income it simply removes the primary taxation of savings done through the corporation the analysis has implications for the choice of a personal tax base and for the design of the corporate tax

financial frictions and employment during the great depression abstract we provide new evidence that a disruption in credit supply played a quantitatively significant role in the unprecedented contraction of employment during the great depression using a novel hand collected dataset of large industrial firms our identification strategy exploits preexisting variation in the need to raise external funds at a time when public bond markets essentially froze local bank failures inhibited firms ability to substitute public debt for private debt which exacerbated financial constraints we estimate a large and negative causal effect of financing frictions on firm employment we find that the lack of access to credit likely accounted for a substantial fraction of the aggregate decline in employment of large firms between 1928 and 1933

tax policy and capital allocation summary the purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of u s tax policy on the efficiency of capital allocation to achieve this objective we employ an intertemporal general equilibrium model of the u s economy implemented econometrically for annual data covering the period 1955 1980 we present a detailed model of the provisions of u s tax law applicable to income from capital we use intertemporal equilibrium paths corresponding to alternative tax policies to evaluate proposals for tax reform we find that dramatic gains in economic welfare would result from a shift from direct to indirect taxation

why do companies pay dividends this paper presents a simple model of market equilibrium to explain why firms that maximize the value of their shares pay dividends even though the funds could instead be retained and subsequently distributed to shareholders in a way that would allow them to be taxed more favorably as capital gains the two principal ingredients of our explanation are 1 the conflicting preferences of shareholders in different tax brackets and 2 the shareholders desire for portfolio diversification we show that companies will pay a positive fraction of earnings in dividends we also provide some comparative static analysis of dividend behavior with respect to tax parameters and to the conditions determining the riskiness of the securities this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

financial distress and the business cycle in this paper we argue that firms financial distress should play a greater role in the macroeconomic analysis of the business cycle we provide a non technical account of a general equilibrium model that exhibits financially driven equilibrium cycles we show that the empirical evidence is widely supportive of the key hypothesis and implications of our approach we use the model in order to evaluate the effects of several policy measures it turns out that deepening the market for second hand capital goods subsidizing the interest payments of companies which start up when financial conditions are tight and bailing out some companies in default can indeed stabilize the economy by way of generalization we may say that the policy reaction to a financially driven bust should be accommodating

input price shocks and the slowdown in economic growth the case of u k manufacturing this paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the effects of input price shocks on economic growth with a focus on united kingdom manufacturing in the 1970s the theoretical model predicts a discrete decline in output and productivity after an input price rise and a longer run slowdown in productivity growth real wage growth and capital accumulation these features characterize the united kingdom and most other oecd economies after 1973 the empirical results confirm the important role of input prices in recent u k adjustment but also point to an important role for other supply and demand factors two types of explanations have been offered for the sharp deterioration in u k economic performance in the past decade focusing respectively on demand and supply factors a standard keynesian view holds that macroeconomic demand management has been either too expansionary or too contractionary and that rising unemployment and falling output reflect the burden of anti inflationary policies an alternative view holds that various supply shocks are the main source of the poor output performance in this interpretation higher raw material prices particularly oil competition from the newly industrializing countries nics and perhaps an independent decline in productivity growth all have lowered output growth and raised unemployment

taxes investment and q this paper attempts to provide a unified analysis of the effects of taxation on the equilibrium value of marginal q under alternative financial policies it is shown that the q approach does not avoid all the specification problems associated with analyses based on the cost of capital the theoretically and empirically crucial relationship between average and marginal q is also examined and it is shown that under uk and us tax rules the possibility of winding up precludes persistent undervaluation in equilibrium there have now been a considerable number of empirical studies of investment behaviour based on some variant of tobin s q defined as the ratio of the firm s market value to the value of its capital stock see for instance jenkinson 1981 oulton 1981 poterba and summers 1981 summers 1981 and von furstenberg 1977 the q approach is seen as having the empirical advantage compared in particular with the more traditional approach based on the cost of capital of allowing expectations to be brought directly into the study of investment behaviour by relying on asset prices to digest all relevant expectations and reflect them in observable data an immediate difficulty however is that whilst the incentive to invest is related to the effect on shareholder wealth at the margin and hence to marginal q only the value of average q is directly observable the consequent difficulty of implementation is not however considered here see bailey and scarth 1980 and hayashi 1982 for discussion of conditions under which marginal q can be inferred from average q rather this paper is concerned with the prior question of how personal and corporate taxation affects the equilibrium value of marginal q for there has as yet been no systematic analysis of the effects of taxation on the equilibrium value of marginal q comparable with the analysis of the relationship between taxation and the cost of capital in king 1974 thus auerbach 1979a b bradford 1981 and edwards and keen 1984 have all considered how taxes affect q when the marginal source of funds is either retained profit or the sale of new equity and the distinction between these two cases has also been recognized in the empirical work of poterba and summers 1983 but the important case in which debt is the marginal source has been ignored the effects on marginal q of the constraints that typically need to be imposed in modelling financial policy have also been neglected this paper attempts to fill these gaps in the literature by providing a general analysis of the relationships between taxation financial policy investment and q the paper also examines the implications of the special tax provisions that may apply in the event in the firm s ceasing operations winding up this bears upon one of the unresolved issues associated with the new view of equity finance auerbach 1983 namely the suggestion that if dividends are taxed more heavily than capital gains

disequilibrium in the uk corporate loan market in the last decade a debate has resurfaced about whether financial constraints stemming from asymmetric information and incentive problems play an important role in propagating monetary policy shocks this paper investigates the monetary transmission mechanism in the uk and its impact on the availability of bank credit to small and medium size firms the empirical specification is based on a disequilibrium model that allows for the possibility of transitory credit rationing sample firms are classified endogenously into borrowing constrained and borrowing unconstrained the analysis of credit rationing takes into account not only firm specific variables but also important macroeconomic factors such as the prevailing monetary conditions and the stage of the business cycle we find that i firms assets play an important role as collateral in mitigating borrowing constraints ii during periods of tight monetary conditions corporate demand for bank credit increases whereas the supply of bank loans is reduced iii to avoid bank credit rationing smaller companies increase their reliance on interfirm credit iv the proportion of borrowing constrained firms is significantly higher during the recession years of the early 1990s than at other times

taxes regulations and the corporate debt market outstanding credit market debt in the u s corporate sector increased dramatically over the second half of the 20th century during this period tax rates on dividend distributions and corporate income decreased this article argues that the observed decline in dividend and corporate income tax rates generated an improvement in the collateral value of corporate assets and led to an increase in u s corporate debt to analyze this conjecture we build a general equilibrium model with enforcement constraints that induce endogenous limits on debt financing we find that the model can account for the time series features of u s corporate debt data

policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions this research examines the relationship between policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions m as we find that policy uncertainty is negatively related to firm acquisitiveness and positively related to the time it takes to complete m a deals in addition policy uncertainty motivates acquirers to use stock for payment and to pay lower bid premiums acquirers on average create larger shareholder value from m a deals undertaken during periods of high policy uncertainty which is attributable to their prudence as well as the wealth transfer from the financially constrained targets to acquirers

tobin s q and financial policy abstract recent research in macroeconomics has emphasized the importance of linking the financial and real sectors and working with optimizing models tobin s q model of investment would appear to provide a framework satisfying these two criteria in contrast to the original presentation of the q model the formal development has not recognized that the firm actively participates in a number of financial markets in this broader context q may be an uninformative and possibly misleading signal for investment expenditures we then endeavor to turn this negative theoretical result to positive advantage in resolving a number of empirical problems with q models

taxation and the cost of capital the uk experience since the 1960s the uk has witnessed a series of reforms to its corporation tax system these include the creation of corporation tax as an independent tax in 1965 the gradual introduction of generous capital allowances in the early 1970s the introduction of the partial imputation system in 1973 and stock relief in 1975 and the 1984 reforms which reduced the tax rate and capital allowances and abolished stock relief a number of these reforms were designed with the specific intention of influencing company decisions regarding investment and finance through the real cost of capital

auction institutional design theory and behavior of simultaneous multiple unit generalizations of the dutch and english auctions historically english and dutch auctions have been used for the exchange of single objects such as works of art or single lots of a good such as produce fish or cut flowers where these institutions have been used for the exchange of multiple units such as the australian wool auction using english rules successive lots of the good are sometimes sold sequentially at auction in some but not all instances this is because the goods are not identical even though the various lots may be close substitutes see penny burns 1985 where the goods are accepted universally as being homogeneous as in the securities markets multiple units are often commonly auctioned simultaneously in the securities industry orders are batched for simultaneous execution in multiple unit auctions in what are referred to as call markets that is the security is called for auction at a particular point in time this type of market is used on the stock exchanges of austria belgium france germany and israel some of these are verbal and some are sealed bid auctions although the u s organized exchanges are predominantly continuous rather than call markets except that call markets are used each day to open trading in each listed security there is a growing number of exceptions such as the proliferation since 1984 of auction preferred stock goldman sachs and co october 1984 and money market preferred stock lehman brothers july 1984 we now have dutch auction rate transferable securities called darts stated rate auction preferred stock or straps and many more after the initial subscription offering of this type of security the market is called every 49 days to reset the preferred dividend rate using a multiple unit auction the exchange of shares and the dividend determination is based on the array of stated dividend rates at which existing holders and potential new holders are willing to sell and or buy corresponding quantities the dividend rate and exchange of shares every 49 days is executed using the uniform price or competitive sealed bid mechanism vernon l smith et al 1980 the discussion to follow will be confined to this sealed bid form of the call market call markets provide temporal consolidation of trade orders or other forms of expressing the desire to buy and sell by comparison with continuous trading call markets offer both advantages and disadvantages robert a schwartz 1988 pp 442 6 the cited advantages include low cost of operating the exchange information aggregation and presumed pricing efficiency price stability individual trades which are thought to have a small impact on price reduced price uncertainty and finally nondiscriminatory pricing however there are offsetting disadvantages 1 the market is inaccessible except at the time of call 2 no bid offer contract or price information is available until the results of the call are announced and 3 there is transaction uncertainty because a submitted bid offer may be too low high to execute inside the supply demand cross these conditions are only partially alleviated if there is a secondary market between calls these disadvantages may be significant in september 1988 the wall street journal published an article on the failure of a call market for the auction rate preferred stock economic science laboratory university of arizona tucson arizona this material is based upon work supported by the national science foundation under grant no ses 8320121

sectoral effects of monetary policy the evidence from publicly traded firms this article examines the impact of monetary policy on net sales of publicly traded firms in various sectors of the u s economy we find that monetary policy has a heterogeneous effect on firms in different industries with the strongest effect on firms in retail and wholesaling balance sheet characteristics especially size influence the impact of policy larger firms in several industries are able to mitigate the effect of policy we find mixed results for firms working capital short term debt ratio and leverage ratio with respect to the operation of the credit channel of monetary transmission mechanism

creditor protection and credit response to shocks this article studies the relationship between creditor protection and credit responses to macroeconomic shocks using a data set on legal determinants of finance in a panel of data on aggregate credit growth for 79 countries during 1990 2004 it is shown that credit is more responsive to external shocks in countries with weak legal creditor protection and weak enforcement the results are statistically and economically significant and robust to alternative measures of creditor protection to the inclusion of variables that reflect different stages of economic development to the restriction of the sample to only developing economies to the controls for systemic crises to alternative shock measures and to vector autoregressive specifications

experimental development of sealed bid auction theory calibrating controls for risk aversion we offer a brief survey of bidding theory in high price auctions of experimental studies of behavior in such auctions and of the interplay between the design and results of the experiments and efforts to further develop the theory two new series of experiments are reported the first applies a convex transformation of payoffs in an attempt to induce a lowering of subject bids as if the bidders had become less risk averse the second applies a method for inducing any prespecified utility function for risky choices on an individual we use it to induce as if risk neutral behavior both series use baseline control to calibrate the hypothesized effect of the procedures on riskaverse behavior

estimation of cost efficiencies from mergers application to us radio this article estimates fixed cost efficiencies from mergers using a dynamic oligopoly model in which mergers and repositioning of products are endogenous the inference is based on revealed preference approach selecting cost synergies that rationalize observed merger decisions the estimates can be used to assess the total welfare impact of retrospective and counterfactual mergers the framework is applied to estimate cost efficiencies after the 1996 deregulation of u s radio industry within the period of 1996 to 2006 the cost savings resulting from mergers amount to 1 2 billion per year equally split across economies of scale and within format cost synergies

insurer provider networks in the medical care market i use data on the hospital networks offered by managed care health insurers to estimate the expected division of profits between insurers and providers i include a simple profit maximization framework and an additional effect hospitals that can secure demand without contracting with all insurers e g those most attractive to consumers and those that are capacity constrained may demand high prices that some insurers refuse to pay hospital mergers may also affect price bargaining i estimate that all three types of hospitals capture higher markups than other providers these results provide information on the hospital investment incentives generated by bargaining

financial capacity and output fluctuations in an economy with multi period financial relationships this paper motivates a financial propagation mechanism in the context of an intertemporal production economy with asymmetric information and with borrowers and lenders who enter multi period financial relationships a key feature is that aggregate output and borrowers financial capacity the maximum overhang of past debt they may feasibly carry are determined jointly much in the spirit of gurley and shaw 1955 expectations of future economic conditions govern financial capacity which in turn may constrain current production especially in bad times a small but persistent shift in aggregate conditions may have a large impact on financial capacity making the framework capable of motivating large endogenous fluctuations in financial constraints understanding how small disturbances can induce large output fluctuations is an on going quest in macroeconomics this paper develops a simple framework in which shifts in aggregate economic fundamentals are amplified through their impact on financial conditions a distinguishing feature is that output and borrowers financial capacity the maximum overhang of past debt they may feasibly carry are determined jointly much in the spirit of gurley and shaw 1955 expectations of future economic conditions govern financial capacity and financial capacity may constrain current production especially in bad times a number of recent papers have resurrected the view that financial factors may play a part in propagating business fluctuations the underlying theories exploit the idea that with asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders agency costs may drive the price of uncollateralized external funds above the price of internal funds in this kind of setting a borrower s financial position is a key determinant of the terms of credit she faces in the aggregate swings in borrower balance sheets over the cycle amplify fluctuations in investment and output essentially by inducing counter cyclical movements in the required premium for external finance this simple mechanism is broadly consistent with informal descriptions of how financial and real variables interacted in the great depression bernanke 1983 and in the postwar business cycles eckstein and sinai 1986 in addition numerous recent panel data studies beginning with fazzari hubbard and peterson 1988 support the notion of a financial investment accelerator mechanism

an analysis of the length of labour and financial contracts a study for spain this study investigates the connection between the duration of financial contracts and that of labour contracts workers with long term contracts have incentives to invest in training this makes them attractive to the entrepreneur furthermore this behaviour will be reinforced if financial contracts are long term because it reduces the probability of an early liquidation as well as the dismissal of trained workers as a conclusion significant increases in the length of financing contracts should be accompanied by corresponding increases in the length of labour contracts support for this theoretical contention is found by testing it on a dataset composed of spanish manufacturing firms for the period 1991 2000

transition and enterprise restructuring the role of budget constraints and bankruptcy costs the focus of analysis is on the impact of financial leverage as a measure of bankruptcy costs on enterprise restructuring based on budget constraints in the economy data of bulgarian manufacturing firms allow comparison of firm behavior under soft and hard budget constraints as distinguished by the inception of a currency board in 1997 controlling for change in sales firm size and type of ownership statistically significant relationship between financial leverage and firm restructuring through labor adjustments is found to exist under hard budget constraints only

financial pressure monetary policy effects and inventories firm level evidence from a market based and a bank based financial system this paper examines the adjustment of inventories by firms in the united kingdom and spain which have two quite different financial systems a widely held view is that a key channel for monetary policy is through the influencing of inventory accumulation using a large company level panel data set for both countries significant effects associated with borrowing costs on inventories are estimated financial effects associated with liquidity and the borrowing ratio are estimated to be stronger in the uk than in spain since the spanish financial system is bank based while that of the uk is market based this is interpreted as contrary to the bank dependence hypothesis

movers and shakers most projects in most walks of life require the participation of multiple parties while it is difficult to unite individuals in a common endeavor some people who we call movers and shakers seem able to do it the paper specifically examines moving and shaking of an investment project whose return depends both on its quality and the total capital invested in it we analyze a model with two types of agents managers and investors managers and investors initially form social connections managers then bid to buy control of the project and the winning bidder puts effort into making investors aware of it finally a subset of aware investors are given the chance to invest and they decide whether to do so after receiving private signals of the project s quality we first show that connections are valuable since they make it easier for a manager to move and shake the project i e obtain capital from investors when we endogenize the network we find that while managers are identical ex ante a single manager emerges as most connected he consequently earns a rent in extensions we move away from the assumption of ex ante identical managers to highlight forces that lead one manager or another to become a mover and shaker our theory sheds light on a range of topics including entrepreneurship venture capital and anchor investments

deleveraging crises and deep recessions a behavioural approach macroeconomic dynamics are characterized by alternating patterns of periods of relative stability and large swings standard micro founded macro economic models account for these patterns through exogenous and persistent shocks in this paper we develop a fully decentralized and micro founded macro economic agent based model augmented with an opinion model which produces endogenous waves of pessimism and optimism that feed back into firms leverage and households precautionary saving behaviour a major emergent property of our model is precisely the complex successions of stable and unstable macro economic regimes the model is further able to account for a wide spectrum of macro and micro empirical regularities within this framework we analyse a series of macro economic phenomena of key relevance in the current macro economic debate especially the occurrence of deleveraging crises and fisherian debt deflation recessions our analysis suggests that the relative dynamics of prices and wages and the resulting income distribution along a deflation ary path are critical determinants of the severity of the recession and the chances of recovery

the marginal welfare cost of capital taxation discounting matters we interpret the marginal welfare cost of capital income taxes as the present discounted value of consumption distortions such an asset market interpretation emphasizes the importance of the interest rate used to value future distortions especially in the presence of uncertainty we find that the interest rate decreases as the tax rate increases thus increasing the welfare cost the variations in the interest rate are caused by amplified responses of consumption to exogenous shocks as a result of capital taxation the welfare cost may be underestimated if variations in interest rates are ignored especially when tax rates are high

the contribution of large and small employers to job creation in times of high and low unemployment we document a negative correlation at business cycle frequencies between the net job creation rate of large employers and the level of aggregate unemployment that is much stronger than for small employers the differential growth rate of employment between initially large and small employers has an unconditional correlation of 0 5 with the unemployment rate and varies by about 5 percent over the business cycle we exploit several datasets from the united states denmark and france both repeated cross sections and job flows with employer longitudinal information spanning the last four decades and several business cycles we discuss implications for theories of factor demand jel d22 e23 e32 j23 l25

the stock market and the productivity slowdown international evidence extending baily s model of the productivity slowdown to the manufacturing sectors of five other countries we find that a decline in the growth of capital services reflected in declines in the stock market can explain much of the 1973 1978 decline in productivity abroad as well as in the united states we also show however that the stock market declines often preceded the declines in productivity growth and the model is less successful when the sample period is extended through 1981

factor demands effective discount rates and liquidity constraints in the retail trade firm eunkyung kwon this is a firm level empirical study of the impact of credit market frictions on firm factor demands it extends previous work in two ways it studies the impact of liquidity constraints on both fixed investment and employment and examines data on retail firms using the euler equation approach it finds strong evidence for the impact of financial constraints on factor demands estimated relationships in turn induce striking countercyclical movements in effective discount rates of firms with limited access to credit the article concludes that the results found in previous work regarding excess sensitivities of investment to liquidity are indeed due to liquidity constraints jel e32 e44 e22 i introduction financing and investment decisions are not in general independent of one another when a firm has limited access to credit markets a number of empirical studies have provided evidence in support of this hypothesis 1 using the euler equation approach and firm level data these studies provide evidence for the role of imperfect financial markets in firms economic decisions they have two common features one is that they study the impact of liquidity constraints on only a single input typically investment the other is that they focus exclusively on the manufacturing sector this article extends the earlier work in two important ways first it examines the impact of liquidity constraints on multiple input choices in particular physical investment and employment second it incorporates data from nonmanufacturing sectors specifically retail trade studying the impact of liquidity constraints on multiple inputs is important for several reasons first it provides an additional testable restriction on the data by holding the impact of financial constraints constant over factor demands it is possible to identify the effects of financial constraints more strictly the idea is that if borrowing constraints truly affect firm factor demands then the impact of such constraints on a firm s discount rate should be the same across different input choices since previous studies considered investment only we cannot exclude the possibility that other factors e g fixed costs of adjustment capital irreversibility in capital etc may be responsible for data not conforming to the model s prediction hence finding the neoclassical model with the perfect capital market to have been misspecified second the analysis in this article considers a general model that allows for the possibility that demands for capital and labor are dynamically interrelated and so jointly determined as opposed to the previous model where optimal investment was determined solely by future investment and prices this generalization is important because the misspecification of the standard euler equation might be due to an assumption of no interactions between input demands rather than to capital market imperfections adding employment to the euler equation for investment is insightful regarding tests for the presence of financial constraints for several other reasons first it is quite straightforward to derive and analyze the euler equation for labor relative to other inputs such as inventories second firm employment decisions are more likely to be closely connected to a firm s physical investment decisions third it is commonly thought that firm labor decisions are rarely affected by liquidity constraints thus examining liquidity jointly on investment and employment is of particular interest for examining the empirical relevance of financial constraints 2 retail trade is an important cyclical sector that has received relatively little attention in the literature it is of particular interest to this study because one can make the case on a priori grounds that firms with imperfect access to credit have a substantial influence within this sector for example as described in a following section in retail trade firms that either do not issue publicly traded equity or do not have a rating to issue publicly traded bonds account for nearly 80 of economic activities in the retail sector

rational expectations and tax policy experimental market evidence abstract experimental markets are used to test whether 1 1 subjects forecasts of future and unknown policy conform to the rational expectations hypothesis and 2 2 subjects purchases of commodities are made in anticipation of such policy forecast results confirm previous studies that support adaptive expectations on the other hand subjects exhibited a type of as if rationality by learning to alter their commodity purchases intertemporally in anticipation of fiscal changes this ability was only slightly diminished when policy was stochastic or when the micro economies were in disequilibrium and in chaos

information constrained insurance the revelation principle extended abstract private information induced incentive constraints can cause allocations to diverge from full information optimal allocations often in the direction of limited insurance but can bring unanticipated anomalies related plausible contract exclusion restrictions can be damaging in welfare terms more generally private information optimal allocations can be sensitive to the information structure suggesting that the latter be specified with an eye toward realism as well as tractability in an effort to make tractability less of a constraint the paper shows how two apparently difficult information structures a costly state verification environment and a multiperiod multilateral private information environment can be handled theoretically by revelation principle methods the paper also shows how solutions can be generated numerically

dividend and capital gains taxation under incomplete markets motivated by the jobs and growth tax relief reconciliation act jgtrra of 2003 the effects of capital income tax cuts are investigated in an economy with heterogeneous households and a representative mature firm dividend tax cuts contrary to capital gains tax cuts lead to a decrease in investment and capital this is because they increase the market value of existing capital and households require a higher return to hold this additional wealth in line with empirical evidence the model predicts substantial increases in dividends and stock prices overall the tax cuts lead to a welfare reduction equivalent to a consumption drop of 0 5

monopolistic competition and the q theory of investment abstract in this paper we analyse the implications for q models of investment of replacing the assumption of perfect competition in the output market with the assumption of monopolistic competition the structural investment equation that can be derived in this case has a richer dynamic structure than the conventional one and it contains in addition to present and future q output as an explanatory variable in the applied section we discuss the extent to which monopolistic competition helps in providing a remedy for the empirical weaknesses of q models the estimates are obtained using aggregate data for u k industrial and commercial companies for the period 1951 1979

firm leverage consumer demand and employment losses during the great recession this article argues that firms balance sheets were instrumental in the transmission of consumer demand shocks during the great recession using micro level data from the u s census bureau we find that establishments of more highly levered firms experienced significantly larger employment losses in response to declines in local consumer demand these results are not driven by firms being less productive having expanded too much prior to the great recession or being generally more sensitive to fluctuations in either aggregate employment or house prices likewise at the county level we find that counties with more highly levered firms experienced significantly larger declines in employment in response to local consumer demand shocks accordingly firms balance sheets also matter for aggregate employment our results suggest a possible role for employment policies that target firms directly besides conventional stimulus