optimal shared savings contracts in supply chains linear contracts and double moral hazard in many supply chains consumption of indirect materials sold by a supplier to a customer for use in her production process can be reduced by efforts exerted by either party since traditional supply contracts provide no incentive for the supplier to exert such effort shared savings contracts have been proposed as a way to improve incentives in the channel leading to more efficient effort choices by the two parties such shared savings contracts typically combine a fixed service fee with a variable component based on consumption volume we formalize this situation using the double moral hazard framework in which both parties decide how much effort to exert by trading off the cost of their effort against the benefits that they will obtain from reduced consumption we also extend the double moral hazard framework to analyze a broader class of cost of effort functions than considered so far including the linear cost of effort functions commonly found in practice we show that the supplier can still always induce the optimal second best equilibrium with a linear shared savings contract under this broader class of functions however the behavior of the optimal contract as a function of the problem parameters becomes more complex we illustrate how small changes in the problem parameters can turn profits from being a well behaved to a poorly behaved function of the contract and provide some theoretical characterization of this phenomenon the practical significance of this is that simple linear contracts are sufficient in many double moral hazard contexts even for the broader class of functions we consider but care must be taken in selecting the optimal contract parameters

signaling quality with a money back guarantee the role of transaction costs direct marketing is witnessing explosive growth as consumers increasingly purchase products from their homes their ability to judge the quality of products they buy is significantly reduced in this paper we study how money back guarantees can signal product quality in such environments we interpret product quality broadly to mean both the level of attributes promised as well as the firm s consistency in delivering on those promises key aspects of our formulation are the explicit consideration of transaction costs and alternative signals of product quality transaction costs are the costs the seller or buyer faces when redeeming a money back guarantee we show that money back guarantees signal quality by exploiting the higher probability of returns for a lower quality product and the attendant higher transaction costs however if the seller s transaction costs are very large then there are less costly ways to signal namely charging a high price we compare the signaling performance of 1 price 2 price with uninformative advertising and 3 price with a money back guarantee whereas uninformative advertising does not work at all in our model under certain conditions a money back guarantee is necessary to signal and under other conditions a money back guarantee is a useful supplement to price

unobserved heterogeneity in stochastic cost frontier models this paper applies a number of stochastic cost frontier models to a panel data set and compares their ability to distinguish unobserved heterogeneity from inefficiency variation among firms the main focus is on greene s 2005 panel data model that incorporates firm specific effects in a stochastic frontier framework in cases where the unobserved heterogeneity is correlated with explanatory variables while the random effects estimators can be biased the fixed effects model may overestimate inefficiency in line with mundlak a simple method is proposed to include such correlations in random effects specification the sample includes 36 swiss nursing homes operating from 1993 to 2001 the results suggest that the proposed specification can avoid the inconsistency problem while keeping the inefficiency estimates unaffected

satisfaction guaranteed or money partially refunded efficient refunds under asymmetric information refunds are modelled as a competitive market response to asymmetric information firms have private information on their choice of product quality and compete by offering price and refund contracts consumers who care about quality draw inferences about the quality offered by the various firms from observed contracts conditions under which a revealing market equilibrium emerges are specified and the equilibrium quality and contract s characterized the model predicts that when product risk is not insurable consumers with higher incomes will pay higher prices for higher quality goods with higher refunds if the product fails

toilet cleaning and department chairing volunteering a public service abstract who will do a job that nobody wants but that someone has to do the search for a volunteer is modelled as a war of attrition in which everyone is tempted to just wait for someone else to do it we show that the volunteer will be ceteris paribus the individual for whom the benefit cost ratio of performing the public service is largest the one most impatient to consume it or the one who stands to benefit from it the longest

delegation and incentives this article analyzes the relation between authority and incentives it extends the standard principal agent model by a project selection stage in which the principal can either delegate the choice of project to the agent or keep the authority the agent s subsequent choice of effort depends both on monetary incentives and the selected project we find that the consideration of effort incentives makes the principal less likely to delegate the authority over projects to the agent in fact if the agent is protected by limited liability delegation is never optimal

volunteering nonprofit entrepreneurial services abstract which member of a heterogeneous population will volunteer to provide the entrepreneurial services needed to found a nonprofit firm to privately provide a public good we develop a model of this decision the model predicts that nonprofit entrepreneurs will be those who incur relatively low private costs or get a relatively high private payoff less obviously they will tend to have a high discount rate and relatively long time horizons either due to their youth or due to their consideration of generations to come far into the future if the public good is one which individuals tend to contribute large amounts to such entrepreneurs will tend to be relatively wealthy if private contributions to the firm are relatively small the entrepreneur is more likely to come from the center of the wealth distribution

firm size and efficiency in the german mechanical engineering industry research usually finds a positive size efficiency relationship but few studies focus on sectors dominated by small and medium sized firms smes this paper fills this gap by analyzing this relationship in the german mechanical engineering industry sector which is both successful and increasingly dominated by smes the analysis using a large and representative dataset finds that small and large firms are on average the most efficient ones while medium sized firms have on average the greatest inefficiencies thus the size efficiency relationship is u shaped rather than monotonically increasing additionally the analysis finds that companies with active owner s are significantly more efficient and that capital firms are less efficient than firms with personally liable owners being located in either east or west germany has no effect

the war of attrition in continuous time with complete information this paper provides a complete characterization of the nash equilibrium outcomes for the war of attrition when time is continuous and information is complete it allows for asymmetric payoffs and an arbitrary time horizon in addition to certain asymme tric pure strategy equilibria that always exist the authors establi sh the conditions under which there is also a continuum of mixed strategy equilibria these are most likely to exist when either the horizon is infinite or the game is symmetric copyright 1988 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

a silent battle over a cake the division of a cake by n players is modeled as a silent game of timing we show that such games admit a unique nash equilibrium

east west joint ventures and buyback contracts abstract contractual joint ventures cjvs and the buyback form of countertrade are popular methods that socialist countries use to attract foreign investment in this paper we explore some reasons why this is so and also explain two predominant characteristics of these contracts the existence of sharing rules and minimum standard requirements on inputs the model stresses the incentive problems involved when a socialist host country which does not allow foreign direct investment uses a cjv to obtain the fruits of some knowledge based production process from a multinational enterprise

bargaining and reputation the paper develops a reputation based theory of bargaining the idea is to investigate and highlight the influence of bargaining postures on bargaining outcomes a complete information bargaining model a la rubinstein is amended to accommodate irrational types who are obstinate and indeed for tractability assumed to be completely inflexible in their offers and demands a strong independence of procedures result is derived after initial postures have been adopted the bargaining outcome is independent of the fine details of the bargaining protocol so long as both players have the opportunity to make offers frequently the latter analysis yields a unique continuous time limit with a war of attrition structure in the continuous time game equilibrium is unique and entails delay consequently inefficiency the equilibrium outcome reflects the combined influence of the rates of time preference of the players and the ex ante probabilities of different irrational types as the probability of irrationality goes to zero delay and inefficiency disappear furthermore if there is a rich set of types for both agents the limit equilibrium payoffs are inversely proportional to their rates of time preference

learning and payoff externalities in an investment game abstract this paper examines the interplay of informational and payoff externalities in a two player irreversible investment game each player learns about the quality of his project by observing a private signal and the action of his opponent i characterize the unique symmetric equilibrium in a timing game that features a second mover advantage allowing for arbitrary correlation in project qualities despite private learning the game reduces to a stochastic war of attrition in contrast to the case of purely informational externalities all investments happen at the same real time instant irrespective of the sign of the correlation and beliefs never get trapped in a no learning region provided that the second mover advantage is sufficiently high

discounted and per unit costs of product warranty this paper proposes a detailed model of the costs and benefits to producers and consumers of product warranty three common types of product warranty contract are considered in addition we explicitly allow for randomness in consumer repurchase behavior and for the possibility of an independent damage process acting on products sold under warranty the cost criteria considered are discounted costs profits and per unit costs and profits the model is used to analyze the trade off between warranty and quality control and to illustrate the sensitivity of warranty costs to environmental variables

endogeneity of alternating offers in a bargaining game we investigate an infinite horizon two person simultaneous move bargaining game with incomplete information and discounted payoffs the game takes the form of a concession game in each period each player chooses to give in or hold out the game continues until at least one of the players chooses to give in at which point agreement has been reached and the game terminates for any discount factor if the players priors about each other s type are sufficiently asymmetric there is a unique nash equilibrium in which the two players alternate in their willingness to give in

strategic delay in bargaining with two sided uncertainty the role of strategic delay is analyzed in an infinite horizon alternating offer model of bargaining a buyer and seller are engaged in the trade of a single object both bargainers have private information about their own preferences and are impatient in that delaying agreement is costly an equilibrium is constructed in which the bargainers signal the strength of their bargaining positions by delaying prior to making an offer a bargainer expecting large gains from trade is more impatient than one expecting small gains and hence makes concessions earlier on trade occurs whever gains from trade exist but due to the private information only after costly delay panmunjom korea upi the american general and the north korean general glared at each other across the table and the only sound was the wind howling across the barren hills outside their hut maj gen james b knapp negotiator for the united nations command unc was waiting for maj gen ri choonsun of the democratic people s republic of north korea to propose a recess they sat there arms folded for 42 hours not a word finally gen ri got up walked out and drove away evening bulletin philadelphia 11 april 1969

the economics of breakdowns checkups and cures a market in which the owner of a durable good x contracts with an expert for diagnostic and treatment services is studied good x may be in one of three states health disease or failure only experts can determine whether x is healthy or diseased and perform treatment the owner cannot tell whether recommended treatment is really needed this creates an information based demand for health insurance by risk neutral consumers imperfections in the market for spot insurance may give rise to free diagnostic checks strategic procrastination and long term health maintenance agreements

the value of technology improvements in games with externalities a fresh look at offsetting behavior abstract we model the effect of safety technology improvements in a symmetric game in which each player s payoff depends on his own precaution and the other players average precaution we derive conditions under which an improved technology increases or decreases players equilibrium utilities for mandatory safety technologies the direction of the welfare effect depends on whether the externality between players is positive or negative and on whether the technology improvement is a complement or substitute for individual precaution for safety technologies that individuals can choose whether or not to purchase individuals expend too much on reducing the loss size but may spend either too much or too little on features that reduce an individual s loss probability

findings biased but efficient an investigation of coordination facilitated by asymmetric dominance in several marketing contexts strategic complementarity between the actions of individual players demands that players coordinate their decisions to reach efficient outcomes yet coordination failure is a common occurrence we show that the well established psychological phenomenon of asymmetric dominance can facilitate coordination in two experiments thus we demonstrate a counterintuitive result a common bias in individual decision making can help players to coordinate their decisions to obtain efficient outcomes further limited steps of thinking alone cannot account for the observed asymmetric dominance effect the effect appears to be due to increased psychological attractiveness of the dominating strategy with our estimates of the incremental attractiveness ranging from 3 6 a learning analysis further clarifies that asymmetric dominance and adaptive learning can guide players to an efficient outcome

vertical integration and efficiency an application to the italian machine tool industry this paper analyzes the relationship between firm efficiency and vertical integration in the italian machine tool mt industry the link may really be the result of a two way causality the effect may run from productive efficiency to the type of vertical organization i e vertical integration or outsourcing as a self selection mechanism or an effect from the organizational mode to the firm s performance may also be at work this relationship is empirically investigated in a novel panel dataset comprising about 500 italian mt builders implementing two equations and instrumental variables for the two directions of causality the evidence clearly indicates the self selection mechanism of the most efficient firms in vertically integrated structures while an effect from the organizational mode to the firm s efficiency is not supported

it takes two to tango equilibria in a model of sales we show that the varian model of sales with more than two firms has two types of equilibria a unique symmetric equilibrium and a continuum of asymmetric equilibria in contrast the 2 firm game has a unique equilibrium that is symmetric for the n firm case the asymmetric equilibria imply mixed strategies that can be ranked by first order stochastic dominance this enables one to rule out asymmetric equilibria on economic grounds by constructing a metagame in which both firms and consumers are players the unique subgame perfect equilibrium of this metagame is symmetric

bargaining enforcement and international cooperation neoliberals and their neorealist critics have debated the relative importance of two main obstacles to international cooperation problems of cheating and enforcement and problems of relative gains by contrast i argue that problems of international cooperation have a common strategic structure in which a third distinct obstacle plays a crucial role almost regardless of the issue area states must first resolve the bargaining problem of agreeing on terms before they can implement and begin to enforce an agreement furthermore the bargaining and enforcement problems interact using a game model i show that if states must bargain to determine the deal to be enforced the shadow of the future cuts two ways a high expectation of continued interactions may make enforcing the agreement easier but it can also give states an incentive to bargain harder delaying agreement in hopes of getting a better deal empirical evidence from trade and arms control negotiations suggests that this mechanism may help to explain the costly standoffs that are often observed in international politics and are problematic for received neoliberal theories

the politics of compromise abstract an organization must select among competing projects that differ in their payoff consequences for its members each agent chooses a project and exerts effort affecting its completion time when one or more projects are complete the agents select which one to adopt the selection rule for multiple projects that maximizes ex post welfare leads to inefficiently high polarization rules that favor later proposals improve upon ex post optimal selections the optimal degree of favoritism increases in the cost of effort and discount rate this trade off informs the design of process rules in standard setting organizations and helps explain their performance jel c78 d23 d71 d72 d83 l15

moral hazard asset specificity implicit bonding and compensation the case of franchising i introduction there is a large and growing interest in the structuring of compensation to deal with the moral hazard problem much of this literature treats various forms of income sharing such as piece rates and sharecropping as a means for a principal to provide incentives to an agent this literature has been extended to the case of two sided moral hazard where both parties to an exchange may shirk another mechanism to induce effort discussed in the literature is bonding where workers post a bond that is forgone if effort is inadequate klein 1980 and klein and leffler 1981 treat the possibility of specific assets as constituting an implicit bond where poor performance by a firm is penalized by bankruptcy and sale of assets at a loss this paper studies a situation where these issues coalesce the case of compensation arrangements in franchising the typical franchise contract calls for the sharing of franchise income between franchisee and franchisor additionally franchisees may be terminated for poor performance if franchise assets have a degree of specificity the ensuing sale of assets at a loss provides a penalty for poor performance we examine the determinants of franchise royalty rates and fees in this setting while there is a literature on two sided moral hazard and some empirical work on franchising based on this idea none incorporates the potential influence of asset specificity we explicitly consider the role of implicit bonding and asset specificity in conjunction with moral hazard on the part of both trading parties we go beyond previous work in franchising by estimating the effects of asset specificity and other influences on the royalty rate further part of our empirical work utilizes improved micro data on actual franchise contracts our approach and its implications are discussed in section ii consistent with previous work we expect the royalty rate to decrease increase as the importance of the franchisee s franchisor s input increases however more specific capital with the threat of termination acts as an implicit bond and substitutes for a reduced royalty rate in inducing franchisee effort thus we expect royalty rates to increase with asset specificity also unlike other approaches we do not necessarily expect an inverse relationship between the royalty rate and the franchise fee for example the greater the importance of franchisor effort the higher the royalty rate but the franchise fee may also increase if franchise revenue rises by enough our hypotheses are tested using two different data sets an original firm level data set is taken from federal trade commission ftc required uniform franchise offering circulars ufoc 1 in addition data are obtained from bond s 1989 the source book of franchise opportunities the data are discussed and the results presented in section iii we find substantial support for our approach for example factors that increase the importance of the franchisee s effort such as the number of employees supervised lower the royalty rate and increase the franchise fee also a reduction in the specificity of the franchisee s investment due to leasing lowers the royalty rate and raises the franchise fee 2 section iv summarizes our findings and concludes the paper ii the approach and the hypotheses the typical franchising contract consists of a two part payment by the franchisee to the franchisor the franchisee pays an up front nonrefundable franchisee fee and a continuing royalty payment usually a percentage of sales in return the franchisee receives the right to use the franchisor s brand name capital and a method of operation in addition the franchisor provides on going support to the franchisee however the franchisor maintains the right to unilaterally terminate the contract if the franchisor determines that the franchisee is not delivering a product consistent with the quality guaranteed by the brand name

waiting to imitate on the dynamic pricing of knowledge we study the problem of an inventor who brings to the market an innovation that can be legally imitated imitators may enter the market by imitating the innovation at a cost or by buying from the inventor the knowledge necessary to reproduce and use the invention the possibility of contracting dramatically affects the need for patent protection our results show that i imitators wait to enter the market and the inventor becomes a temporary monopolist ii the inventor sells knowledge through contracts that allow resale by the imitators and iii under certain conditions the inventor s payoff increases with the number of imitators

technical efficiency in the italian performing arts companies this paper evaluates the determinants of firms technical efficiency in the italian performing arts pa sector by estimating a stochastic production frontier for an unbalanced panel of 107 firms over the period 2005 2012 the panel data setting allows us to control for both unobserved and observed heterogeneity of pa firms reaching several interesting and robust findings firstly it finds that the italian pa firms are scale inefficient as they generally operate in either an increasing or decreasing returns to scale landscape this result is reinforced by the fact that the smaller firms 10 49 employees are the most technically efficient firm size class secondly this research proves that the efficiency score is on average 66 demonstrating that pa firms output could be substantially increased without the use of new inputs thirdly it confirms that the quality matters and competences increase the efficiency in the sector finally the environmental factors especially the quality of institutions have a strong impact on technical efficiency of pa firms supporting that regional differences also exist in this sector

reputations in the adoption of a new technology abstract this paper studies the effects of uncertainty on the timing of adoption of a new technology in a duopoly firms are uncertain of the innovative capabilities of their rivals and about the profitability of adoption these features lead to a richer and in some respects more plausible theory of adoption in which rents from delayed adoption are always realized and returns are not equalized across adoption times

contractual structure in agriculture abstract this paper develops a generalized double sided moral hazard model of contract choice in agricultural production with mutual monitoring of each other by the landlord and the tiller who generally have different levels of farming efficiency and are risk averse using this model we formally prove that the optimal contract maximizes the output net of the risk bearing and agency costs of both the parties and carry out a simulation exercise which helps explain many of the tenancy related issues the difference in the farming efficiency of the two sides often ignored in previous analysis turns out to be the principal determinant of the contract offered to a tiller

a dynamic model of the choice of mode for exploiting complementary capabilities this paper examines the choice of mode for a multinational enterprise and a local firm to exploit their complementary capabilities we develop a combined real options and game theoretic model of modal choice by incorporating a range of factors drawn from the dynamic capabilities theory and transaction cost or organizational economics the factors scrutinized in the model include the parties absorptive capacities frictions in knowledge and asset markets and associated incentive problems cost of switching from one mode to another and cost associated with power jockeying the model uses simulation to examine how these factors interact to influence the choice of mode the results identify a number of conditions for one factor to dominate another and help to reconcile different theories that have made contradicting predictions with regard to the effects of such factors as uncertainty and capability divergence on the optimal choice of mode

volunteering a public service an experimental investigation in some public goods environments it may be advantageous for heterogeneous groups to be coordinated by a single individual this volunteer will bear private costs for acting as the leader while enabling each member of the group to achieve maximum potential gains this environment is modeled as a war of attrition game in which everyone can wait for someone else to volunteer since these games generally have multiple nash equilibria but a unique subgameperfect equilibrium we tested experimentally the predictive power of the subgame perfection criterion our data contradict that subjects saw the subgame perfect strategy combination as the obvious way to play the game an alternative behavioral hypothesis that subjects were unable to predict accurately how their opponents would play and tried to maximize their expected payoff is proposed this hypothesis fits the observed data generally well

incentive contracts in two sided moral hazards with multiple agents abstract the paper studies a contracting problem in which a principal enters in two sided moral hazards withnindependent agents there are no technological or informational linkages among thenagency problems despite this independence optimal incentive schemes essentially eliminate the principal s incentive problem when team size is large enough reputation like effects appear in a static setting through an improved aggregation of information about the actions of the principal one implication of this result is that it is generally suboptimal to require an agent s compensation to depend only on his own outcome another implication is the existence of purely informational economies of scale to increasing team size thus the concentration of otherwise unrelated transactions in a single firm creates wealth through a more efficient use of information about the principal s actions the paper also shows that extremely simple statistical contracts are approximately optimal in large teams the outcome of such contracts is observationally indistinguishable from standard principal agent contracts this provides a theoretical justification for using standard principal agent contracts in environments that involve two sided hazard in a fundamental way journal of economic literatureclassification numbers d21 d23

bargaining reputation and competition this paper addresses the question of whether playing the tough bargainer is a useful strategy for rational negotiators in competitive environments the unique equilibrium outcome of a continuous time multilateral bargaining game between a single seller and two buyers i e a three player war of attrition game show that it does not benefit the buyers the long side of the market if the probability of obstinacy is constant and independent of the initial demands this result is robust in the sense that the buyers heterogeneity about their flexibility does not weaken the intensity of the competition when the seller decides which buyer to negotiate first he not only chooses his bargaining partner but also picks his outside option the seller can strengthen his bargaining position against both buyers by picking the unattractive buyer who is greedier or tougher than the other buyer first and by leaving the attractive buyer aside because he starts the sequel with a strong outside option

promotions and product pricing parsimony versus veblenesque demand the veracity of the parsimonious law of demand has long been challenged by analyses of the veblen effect and prestige pricing backward bending demand curves often attend discussions of conspicuous consumption probing the sociological and psychological intricacies of potential consumer interdependencies scholars in economics and marketing have overlooked mundane product promotions for a monopolistic firm we formalize the relationship between the optimal price quantity combination and the thoroughness of product promotions iterating toward the profit maximizing thoroughness of product promotion gives rise to a backward bending price quantity locus challenges to the law of demand that ignore product promotions are thereby undercut

second mover advantage and entry timing we describe a model of entry timing assuming that a second mover can benefit from observing the experience of a first mover we focus on how market attractiveness characteristics such as size and cost affect the time until first entry the effects depend on whether the number of participants is exogenous or endogenous in the former case a more attractive market leads to earlier entry in the latter case it leads to later entry treating the number of firms as an integer free entry leads to non monotone but testable effects of market attractiveness on entry timing

contract choice in modern agriculture cash rent versus cropshare e conomists have expended enormous effort examining the rationale for various contractual arrangements in agriculture particularly sharecropping while economists have made considerable theoretical efforts to understand agricultural contracts few empirical studies have been undertaken the dearth of empirical analyses of agricultural contracts is particularly striking for modern western agriculture this is an important omission not only because the existing empirical work tends to focus on the question of efficiency but also because the theoretical models tend to examine contracts that bear little resemblance to those found in the united states today

double moral hazard and resale price maintenance incentives for resale price maintenance rpm are studied in a wholesaler retailer relationship in which both firms make a nonprice choice subject to moral hazard the best attainable contract has vertical externalities in both nonprice choices and the choice of consumers price if delegated to the retailer rpm controls the latter externality but interacts with the other externalities as well as a consequence either minimum or maximum vertical price fixing can be optimal in spite of a successive monopoly specification similar incentives exist for writing other variables into contract such as the capital input of the retailer

risk preferences and demand drivers of extended warranties we disentangle and study the relative importance of different risk preferences in explaining extended warranty purchases and the high premia paid for them empirical and behavioral research on insurance is at odds with whether diminishing returns curvature of the utility function or loss aversion and nonlinear probability weighting lead to observed consumer behavior this lack of consensus is primarily due to the inability of standard choice data to separate different risk preferences and the consequent need to rely on strong parametric assumptions we design two conjoint studies consistent with simultaneous and sequential decision making with choices about washing machines and extended warranties where subjects are given failure probabilities and repair costs using stated choice data from the surveys we can nonparametrically identify product and risk preferences we find that loss aversion is significantly more important than curvature and probability weights in explaining extended warranty choices importantly failure to decompose risk averse behavior into that arising from curvature loss aversion and probability weighting leads to lower washer prices and profits these findings are robust to alternate reference point assumptions we rationalize the premia paid for warranties by exploring retailer incentives to price discriminate and test the theory on complementary goods pricing finally based on counterfactual analysis forcing separate retailers to sell washers and extended warranties is not necessarily welfare enhancing as cited in the media and previous literature

product risk sharing by warranties in a monopoly market with risk averse consumers abstract this paper analyzes the implications of three different warranty rules in a monopoly setting with risk averse consumers the necessary condition for the existence of the market is independent of the risk sharing arrangement although the quantity consumed is the highest if the consumer receives no warranty even if the monopolist is constrained to marginal cost pricing the replacement warranty is most efficient from a risk allocation point of view however the situation with no warranty is pareto superior to a money back warranty additionally the producer and the consumers agree on the ranking of the warranty rules

on manufacturing marketing incentives stereotypically marketing is mainly concerned about satisfying customers and manufacturing is mainly interested in factory efficiency using the principal agent agency paradigm which assumes that the marketing and manufacturing managers of the firm will act in their self interest we seek incentive plans that will induce those managers to act so that the owner of the firm can attain as much as possible of the residual returns one optimal incentive plan can be interpreted as follows the owner subcontracts to pay the manufacturing manager a fixed rate for all capacity he delivers each marketing manager receives all of the returns from his product in turn all managers pay a fixed fee to the owner under this plan the marketing managers will often complain about the stock level decisions even though these levels are announced in advance under a revised plan the owner can eliminate such complaints by delegating the stocking decisions to the respective marketing managers without any loss this plan is interpreted as requiring the owner to make a futures market for manufacturing capacity paying the manufacturing manager the expected marginal value for each unit of capacity delivered receiving the realized marginal value from the marketing managers and losing money on average in the process

continuous time games of timing abstract we address the question of existence of equilibrium in general timing games with complete information under weak assumptions any two player timing game has a markov subgame perfect e equilibrium for each e 0 this result is tight for some classes of games symmetric games games with cumulative payoffs stronger existence results are established

frontier estimation and firm specific inefficiency measures in the presence of heteroscedasticity the purpose of this article is to illustrate a straightforward and useful method for addressing the problem of heteroscedasticity in the estimation of frontiers a heteroscedastic cost frontier model is developed and estimated using bank cost data similar to that used by ferrier and lovell our results show dramatic changes in the estimated cost frontier and in the inefficiency measures when accounting for heteroscedasticity in the estimation process we find that the rankings of firms by their inefficiency measures is affected markedly by the correction for heteroscedasticity but not by alternative distributional assumptions about the one sided error term

product warranties and double moral hazard this article explores a model of warranties in which moral hazard problems play a key role the goal is to understand the important characteristics of warranties including their provision of incomplete insurance and the relationship between product quality and coverage we analyze a model in which buyers and sellers take actions that affect a product s performance since these actions are not cooperatively determined an incentives problem arises we characterize the optimal warranty contract and undertake comparative statics to determine the predicted correlation of warranty coverage and product quality

warranties as signals under consumer moral hazard this article examines the use of prices and warranties as signals of product quality to consumers who choose how to maintain their purchases the seller s incentives are strongly affected by the interaction of quality and maintenance in determining product reliability two different assumptions about this interaction are made a separating equilibrium in which high quality is signalled with a low warranty and low price is shown to be possible in both cases

calculating the reserve for a time and usage indexed warranty many products carry a warranty that offers protection for the consumer against low quality these warranties are often two dimensional such as an automobile warranty that guarantees repair up to a certain time and mileage after sale this paper considers the problem of assessing the size of a reserve needed by the manufacturer to meet future claims for such a two dimensional warranty to do this a class of failure models that describe failure by two scales time and mileage for example must be developed the first half of the paper is devoted to this development then the warranty reserve problem is considered in more detail the problem is described and a decision theoretic solution making use of the newly developed reliability model is proposed

all units discounts and double moral hazard abstract an all units discount is a price reduction applied to all units purchased if the customer s total purchases equal or exceed a given quantity threshold since the discount is paid on all units rather than marginal units the tariff is discontinuous and exhibits a negative marginal price cliff at the threshold that triggers the discount this paper shows that all units discounts arise in optimal agency contracts between upstream and downstream firms that face double moral hazard i present conditions under which all units discounts dominate two part tariffs and other continuous tariffs i also examine these tariffs when the upstream market faces a threat of entry in the case considered all units discounts deter entry by less efficient rivals without distorting price and investment whereas continuous tariffs either accommodate such entry or deter it by distorting price and investment

impact of bayesian learning and externalities on strategic investment we investigate the interplay between learning effects and externalities in the problem of competitive investments with uncertain returns we examine a game theoretic duopoly investment model in which i a firm can learn about the profitability of the investment by observing the performance of the first mover and ii externalities exist between the investments of two firms we find a region of a war of attrition between the two firms in which the interplay between externalities and learning gives rise to counterintuitive effects on investment strategies and payoffs in particular we find that contrary to the conventional war of attrition where an increase in benefits for the follower generally delays the first move an increase in the rate of learning which tends to benefit the follower can hasten the first investment this paper was accepted by james smith decision analysis

voluntary product safety certification this paper describes the incentives for firms to seek voluntary product safety certifications we consider a firm that makes the decision of whether or not to seek certification prior to selling the product we show that even when the firm and the consumers have the same beliefs about the product s safety there are incentives for the firm to seek safety certification the main analysis investigates the role of consumer moral hazard and shows that it can lead to greater incentives for voluntary certification when inherent product safety and effort are substitutes but smaller incentives when they are complements the analysis of consumer moral hazard provides a nuanced perspective on the so called risk compensation or the peltzman effect phenomenon which postulates higher levels of accidents for safer products in our paper products that are successfully certified can end up with a higher incidence of accidents we also uncover an interesting nonmonotonic relationship between effectiveness of consumer

estimation of a doubly heteroscedastic stochastic frontier cost function this article extends the results obtained by caudill ford and cropper in estimating and testing stochastic frontier cost functions in the presence of heteroscedastic inefficiency using cross section data it suggests the estimation of the model under the assumption of heteroscedasticity in both random terms this avoids any possible misspecification bias and the use of incorrect tests the same data as used by caudill et al supports the new specification moreover we find that firm specific inefficiency measures are extremely sensitive to the proposed correction for heteroscedasticity

audience costs and reputation in crisis bargaining in crisis bargaining literature it is conventional wisdom that the ability of generating higher audience costs is an advantage for a leader of a state however empirical studies show that democratic states use this mechanism only occasionally this paper formally shows that higher audience costs may be good or bad depending on 1 the benefit cost ratio of the crisis 2 initial probability of resolve and 3 how fast states generate audience costs with time in particular if the value of the prize over the cost of attacking is low or the initial probability of resolve is high enough then having greater ability to generate audience costs may undermine democratic states diplomatic success

the measurement and sources of technical inefficiency in the indonesian weaving industry production function models are estimated with a time series of cross section data on indonesian weaving establishments the sources of technical inefficiency are investigated three firm attributes are identified as being potentially related to firm efhciency tbey are firm ownership age and size the importance of these attributes as sources of inefficiency in the indonesian weaving industry is investigated and the implications of the find ings discussed

dynamic competition and intellectual property rights in a model of product development we study innovation timing and socially optimal intellectual property rights iprs when firms facing market uncertainty invest strategically in product development if demand growth and volatility are high attrition occurs and iprs should ensure the cost of imitation attains a lower bound we identify if demand growth and volatility are low then provided that the private imitation incentive is socially excessive iprs should set the cost of imitation high enough to induce preemption and possibly winner take all preemption moreover the welfare achieved with optimal iprs is then greater with endogenous innovation than if firm roles are predetermined illustrating the importance of fostering dynamic competition in extensions we show how firms benefit from open standards takeovers have ambiguous welfare effects and simple licensing schemes are welfare improving

strategic investment in technological innovations abstract the aim of this paper is to determine the optimal timing of technology investment of a single firm in a duopoly framework as time passes different technologies are invented which after sometime become available for the firm to adopt the question here is not only when a firm should invest but also which technology should be adopted for different scenarios the optimal technology investment decision is determined outcomes range from pre emption equilibria to equilibria with second mover advantages

holdouts in sovereign debt restructuring a theory of negotiation in a weak contractual environment negotiations between a country in default and its international creditors are modeled as a dynamic game in an environment of weak contractual enforcement the country cannot borrow internationally until it settles with all creditors delay arises in equilibrium as creditors engage in strategic hold up the model a rms the conventional wisdom that delay increases with more creditors and with the advent of vulture creditors contrary to conventional wisdom putting collective action clauses into bond contracts may increase delay via free riding on negotiation costs even while preventing strategic holdup and reducing total negotiation costs secondary debt markets consolidate debt with high and disperse debt with low creditor bargaining power whether secondary markets reduce or increase delay depends on the interaction between strategic holdup and debt

aid conditionality and military expenditure reduction in developing countries models of asymmetric information this paper analyzes problems of implementing noneconomic conditionality such as military expenditure reduction in the granting of foreign aid given the presence of asymmetric information the authors present two conceptually separate principal agent models to capture the stylized facts of multilateral and bilateral aid negotiations respectively the first model is an application of the problem of adverse selection when there is more than one type of principal donor with varying objectives the second model extends moral hazard to double moral hazard where neither principal nor agent recipient can fully observe or verify each other s strategies copyright 1995 by royal economic society

monotone equilibria in signaling games abstract we examine the monotonicity of the sender s equilibrium strategy with respect to her type in signaling games we show that when the sender s return from the receiver s action depends on her type the spence mirrlees condition cannot rule out equilibria in which a higher type sender chooses a strictly lower action than a lower type we provide sufficient conditions under which all equilibria are monotone which require that the sender s payoff is decreasing in her action is increasing in the receiver s action and has strictly increasing differences between her type and the action profile we apply our sufficient conditions to education signaling advertising and warranty provision

technical efficiency and ict investment in italian manufacturing firms the importance of information and communication technologies icts is a much debated question with extensive literature aimed at understanding the role of icts in increasing economic growth firm productivity and firm efficiency different methods to estimate firm efficiency are used in this study in particular both the translog and the cobb douglas production functions are used in order to estimate the impact of ict on technical efficiency te in italian manufacturing firms over the period 1995 to 2003 results show that ict investments positively and significantly affected firms te moreover group size and geographical position have a positive influence on te finally the results show that older firms are on average more efficient than newer ones