asymmetric benchmarking in compensation executives are rewarded for good luck but not penalized for bad abstract principal agent theory suggests that a manager should be paid relative to a benchmark that removes the effect of market or sector performance on the firm s own performance recently it has been argued that such indexation is not observed in the data because executives can set pay in their own interests that is they can enjoy pay for luck as well as pay for performance we first show that this argument is incomplete the positive expected return on stock markets reflects compensation for bearing systematic risk if executives pay is tied to market movements they can only expect to receive the market determined return for risk bearing this argument however assumes that executive pay is tied to bad luck as well as to good luck if executives can truly influence the setting of their pay they will seek to have their performance benchmarked only when it is in their interest namely when the benchmark has fallen using industry benchmarks we find significantly less pay for luck when luck is down in which case pay for luck would reduce compensation than when it is up these empirical results are robust to a variety of alternative hypotheses and robustness checks and they suggest that the average executive loses 25 45 less pay from bad luck than is gained from good luck

a multiplicative model of optimal ceo incentives in market equilibrium this paper presents a unified theory of both the level and sensitivity of pay in competitive market equilibrium by embedding a moral hazard problem into a talent assignment model by considering multiplicative specifications for the ceo s utility and production functions we generate a number of different results from traditional additive models first both the ceo s low fractional ownership the jensen murphy incentives measure and its negative relationship with firm size can be quantitatively reconciled with optimal contracting and thus need not reflect rent extraction second the dollar change in wealth for a percentage change in firm value divided by annual pay is independent of firm size and therefore a desirable empirical measure of incentives third incentive pay is effective at solving agency problems with multiplicative impacts on firm value such as strategy choice however additive issues such as perk consumption are best addressed through direct monitoring jel d2 d3 g34 j3

modelling real interest rates abstract in this paper we model real interest rates as a generalised mean reverting ornstein uhlenbeck process empirical tests of the model using us and uk data for the period 1870 1975 shows that there exists significant mean reversion in both the us and uk for real interest rates inflation rates and nominal interest rates we present evidence for some stylised empirical facts which might be incorporated in models linking real interest rates inflation and nominal interest rates

option prices as predictors of equilibrium stock prices the black scholes option pricing model modified for dividend payments is used to calculate jointly implied stock prices and implied standard deviations a comparison of the implied stock prices with observed stock prices reveals that the implied prices contain information regarding equilibrium stock prices that is not fully reflected in observed stock prices the implications of this finding are discussed this study investigates the role of call option prices as predictors of the equilibrium prices of their underlying stocks using the black scholes 3 bs model previous tests of the bs model have shown that the formula is highly successful in explaining the observed market prices of options see black and scholes 2 galai 8 chiras and manaster 6 and macbeth and merville 12 according to the model the option price is a function of the current value of the underlying stock the instantaneous variance of the stock s rate of return the time to maturity of the option the risk free rate of interest and the exercise price of the option 1 given an observed option price and known values of all input parameters to the bs model except the stock price one can determine the price of the underlying stock that equates the observed option price to its calculated value it follows from the underlying logic of the model that the implied price is the value of the underlying stock for which a continuously revised option bond portfolio would be a perfect substitute for the stock hence if options are actually priced according to the model implied stock prices will be the option market s assessment of equilibrium stock values previous empirical studies have assumed that observed stock prices are the relevant stock prices for option valuation however just as stock prices may differ in the short run from one exchange to another i e nyse midwest

bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates a new methodology for contingent claims valuation this paper presents a unifying theory for valuing contingent claims under a stochastic term structure of interest rates the methodology based on the equivalent martingale measure technique takes as given an initial forward rate curve and a family of potential stochastic processee for its subsequent movements a no arbitrage condition restricts this family of processes yielding valuation formulae for interest rate sensitive contingent claims which do not explicitly depend on the market prices of risk examples are provided to illustrate the key results in relation to the term structure of interest rates arbitrage pricing theory has two purposes the first is to price all zero coupon default free bonds of varying maturities from a finite number of economic fundamentals called state variables the second is to price all interest rate sensitive contingent claims taking as given the prices of the zero coupon bonds this paper presents a general theory and a unifying framework for understanding arbitrage pricing theory in this context of which all existing arbitrage pricing models are special cases in particular vasicek 1977 brennan and schwartz 1979 langetieg 1980 ball and torous 1983 ho and lee 1986 schaefer and schwartz 1987 and artzner and delbaen 1988 the primary contribution of this paper however is a new methodology for solving the second problem i e the pricing of interest rate sensitive contingent claims given the prices of all zero coupon bonds the methodology is new because i it imposes its stochastic structure directly on the evolution of the forward rate curve ii it does not require an inversion of the term structure to eliminate the market prices of risk from contingent claim values and iii it has a stochastic spot rate process with multiple stochastic factors influencing the term structure the model can be used to consistently price and hedge all contingent claims american or european on the term structure and it is derived from necessary and more importantly sufficient conditions for the absence of arbitrage the arbitrage pricing models of vasicek 1977 brennan and schwartz 1979 langetieg 1980 and artzner and delbaen 1988 all require an iformerly titled bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates a new methodology

an equilibrium model of bond pricing and a test of market efficiency in two previous and related papers 3 4 the authors have reported the results of estimating a particular equilibrium model of bond pricing using quarterly data on canadian government bonds for the period 1964 to 1979 this paper reports the results of applying a similar model to the pricing of u s government bonds for the period 1958 1979 using data from the crsp government bond file the paper also extends the previous empirical analysis by evaluating the ability of the pricing model to detect underpriced and overpriced bonds the data reveal a strong relation between price prediction errors and subsequent bond returns

technology invention and diffusion in residential energy consumption a stochastic frontier approach traditional large appliances absorb a large share of residential electricity consumption and represent important targets of energy policy strategies aimed at achieving energy security despite being characterized by rather mature technologies this group of appliances still offers large potential in terms of efficiency gains due to their pervasive diffusion in this paper we analyse the electricity consumption of a set of four traditional white goods in a panel of ten eu countries observed over 21 years 1990 2010 with the aim of disentangling the amount of technical efficiency from the overall energy saving the technical efficiency trend is modelled through a set of technology components representing both the invention and adoption process by the means of specific patents weighted by production and bilateral import flows which allows to overcome the rigid stochastic frontier framework in modelling the effect of technical change our results show that the derived energy demand and inefficiency trends are both related to changes in the amount of available technology embodied in energy efficient appliances the effect is significant both in its domestic and international components and suggests an active role of innovation and trade policies for achieving efficiency targets which directly impact the amount of electricity consumed by households

a dynamic programming approach for pricing options embedded in bonds abstract we propose a dynamic programming dp approach for pricing options embedded in bonds the focus being on call and put options with advance notice an efficient procedure is developed for the cases where the interest rate process follows the vasicek cox ingersoll ross cir or generalized vasicek models our dp methodology uses the exact joint distribution of the interest rate and integrated interest rate at a future date conditional on the current value of the interest rate we provide numerical illustrations for the vasicek and cir models comparing our dp method with finite difference methods our procedure compares quite favorably in terms of both efficiency and accuracy an important advantage of the our dp approach is that it can be applied to more general models calibrated to capture the term structure of interest rates e g the generalized vasicek model

agency and optimal investment dynamics agency problems limit firms access to capital markets curbing investment firms and investors seek contractual ways to mitigate these problems what are the implications for investment we present a theory of a firm s investment dynamics in the presence of agency problems and optimal long term financial contracts we derive results relating firms investment decisions current and past cash flows firm size capital structure and dividends among the results optimal investment is increasing in current and past cash flow and optimal investment is positively serially correlated over time after controlling for investment opportunities these results hold for a range of agency problems jel g30 g31 g32 g35 d82 d86 d92 copyright 2007 oxford university press

exact solutions for futures and european futures options on pure discount bonds this paper provides closed form solutions for futures and european futures options on pure discount bonds under the ornstein uhlenbeck normal process a significant difference between black s model 1976 and the model in this paper for futures options is discussed

japanese monetary policy introduction kenneth j singleton 1 a comparative perspective on japanese monetary policy short run monetary control and the transmission mechanism kazuo ueda 2 market operations in japan theory and practice kunio okina 3 japanese corporate investment and bank of japan guidance of commercial bank lending takeo hoshi david scharfstein and kenneth j singleton 4 the interest rate process and the term structure of interest rates in japan john y campbell and yasushi hamao 5 monetary policy and the real economy in japan hiroshi yoshikawa 6 an aggregate demand aggregate supply analysis of japanese monetary policy 1973 1990 kenneth d west

heterogeneity in the response to gasoline prices evidence from pennsylvania and implications for the rebound effect abstract the consumer response to changing gasoline prices has long interested economists and policymakers for it has important implications for the effects of gasoline taxation and vehicle energy efficiency policies this study examines both the elasticity of driving with respect to changing gasoline prices and heterogeneity in this elasticity by geography the fuel economy of the vehicle and the age of the vehicle we use detailed annual vehicle level emissions inspection test data from pennsylvania that include odometer readings inspection zip codes and extensive vehicle characteristics we estimate a short run gasoline price elasticity of driving demand of 0 10 and find substantial heterogeneity in this responsiveness the elasticity is largely driven by low fuel economy vehicles as well as vehicles between 3 and 7 years old our findings help reconcile some of the recent literature and provide guidance on the magnitude of the direct rebound effect from light duty vehicle energy efficiency policies

continuous time methods in finance a review and an assessment i survey and assess the development of continuous time methods in finance during the last 30 years the subperiod 1969 to 1980 saw a dizzying pace of development with seminal ideas in derivatives securities pricing term structure theory asset pricing and optimal consumption and portfolio choices during the period 1981 to 1999 the theory has been extended and modified to better explain empirical regularities in various subfields of finance this latter subperiod has seen significant progress in econometric theory computational and estimation methods to test and implement continuous time models capital market frictions and bargaining issues are being increasingly incorporated in continuous time theory the roots of modern continuous time methods in finance can be traced back to the seminal contributions of merton 1969 1971 1973b in the late 1960s and early 1970s merton 1969 pioneered the use of continuous time modeling in financial economics by formulating the intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an investor in a stochastic dynamic programming setting merton 1973b also showed how such a framework can be used to develop equilibrium asset pricing implications thereby significantly extending the asset pricing theory to richer dynamic settings and expanding the scope of applications of continuous time methods to study problems in financial economics 1 within a span of about 30 years from the publication of merton s inf luential papers continuous time methods have become an integral part of financial economics indeed in certain core areas in finance such as e g asset pricing derivatives valuation term structure theory and portfolio selection continuoustime methods have proved to be the most attractive way to conduct research and gain economic intuition the continuous time approach in these areas has produced models with a rich variety of testable implications the econometric theory for testing continuous time models has made rapid strides in the last decade and has thus kept pace with the impressive progress on the theoretical front one hopes that the actual empirical investigations and estimation using the new procedures will follow suit soon

optimal incentive contracts in the presence of career concerns theory and evidence this paper studies optimal incentive contracts when workers have career concerns concerns about the effects of current performance on future compensation we show that the optimal compensation contract optimizes total incentives the combination of the implicit incentives from career concerns and the explicit incentives from the compensation contract thus the explicit incentives from the optimal compensation contract should be strongest for workers close to retirement because career concerns are weakest for these workers we find empirical support for this prediction in the relation between chief executive compensation and stock market performance

asymmetric industrial energy prices and international trade this paper measures the response of bilateral trade flows to differences in industrial energy prices across countries using a panel for the period 1996 2011 including 42 countries 62 sectors and covering 60 of global merchandise trade we estimate the short run effects of sector level energy price asymmetry on trade we find that changes in relative energy prices have a statistically significant but very small impact on imports on average a 10 increase in the energy price difference between two country sectors increases imports by 0 2 the impact is larger for energy intensive sectors even in these sectors however the magnitude of the effect is such that changes in energy price differences across time explain less than 0 01 of the variation in trade flows simulations based on our model predict that a 40 65 tco2 price of carbon in the eu ets would increase europe s imports from the rest of the world by less than 0 05 and decrease exports by 0 2

efficiency effectiveness and implementation feasibility of energy efficiency rebates the renove plan in spain abstract state sponsored incentive policies frequently include subsidies or rebates for the purchase of more efficient appliances however more research is required into the effects of this tool in isolation a case in point is the so called renove plan in spain first the inefficiency losses dead weight losses associated with energy efficiency rebates must be taken into account such a policy may also encourage the large scale purchasing of energy efficient appliances which may finally result in an increase in electricity consumption rebound effect furthermore although a subsidy is more widely accepted than other tools from social and political viewpoints especially than taxes the fiscal consolidation challenge faced by many countries reduces the scope for environmental policy measures on the expenditure side of the budget and strengthens the need to use taxes to meet the agreed policy objectives this paper shows that the current application of the spanish renove plan with rebates on the dishwasher market for energy efficient appliances generates some welfare losses a rebound effect and a considerable deficit in public budgets the paper examines and assesses the effect of different combinations of taxes and rebates in the case of dishwashers in spain based on their performance in terms of economic efficiency environmental effectiveness and implementation feasibility

living up to expectations estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for uk households this study estimates the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from various types of energy efficiency improvement by uk households in contrast to most studies of this topic we base our estimates on cross price elasticities and therefore capture both the income and substitution effects of energy efficiency improvements our approach involves estimating a household demand model to obtain price and expenditure elasticities of different goods and services utilising a multiregional input output model to estimate the ghg emission intensities of those goods and services combining the two to estimate direct and indirect rebound effects and decomposing those effects to reveal the relative contribution of different mechanisms and commodities we estimate that the total rebound effects are 41 for measures that improve the efficiency of domestic gas use 48 for electricity use and 78 for vehicle fuel use the primary source of this rebound is increased consumption of the cheaper energy service i e direct rebound and this is primarily driven by substitution effects our results suggest that the neglect of substitution effects may have led prior research to underestimate the total rebound effect however we provide a number of caveats to this conclusion as well as indicating priorities for future research

on the intertemporal behavior of the short term rate of interest this paper examines the intertemporal behavior of the short term rate of interest in a mean reverting model vasicek s elastic random walk model using the goldfeldquandt switching regressions technique we show that the mean reverting model switched regimes three times over the sample period march 1959 to december 1985 and that two of these switches coincide with the 1979 and 1982 changes in federal reserve monetary policy on interest rates parameter estimates prove to be unstable over the sample period there is evidence of slow mean reversion over the entire sample period yet significant mean reversion emerges only in the 1979 1982 regime

optimal security design and dynamic capital structure in a continuous time agency model we derive the optimal dynamic contract in a continuous time principal agent setting and implement it with a capital structure credit line long term debt and equity over which the agent controls the payout policy while the project s volatility and liquidation cost have little impact on the firm s total debt capacity they increase the use of credit versus debt leverage is nonstationary and declines with past profitability the firm may hold a compensating cash balance while borrowing at a higher rate through the credit line surprisingly the usual conflicts between debt and equity asset substitution strategic default need not arise in this paper we consider a dynamic contracting environment in which a riskneutral agent or entrepreneur with limited resources manages an investment activity while the investment is profitable it is also risky and in the short run it can generate arbitrarily large operating losses the agent will need outside financial support to cover such losses and continue the project the difficulty is that while the probability distribution of the cash flows is publicly known the agent may distort these cash flows by taking a hidden action that leads to a private benefit specifically the agent may i conceal and divert cash flows for his own consumption and or ii stop providing costly effort which would reduce the mean of the cash flows therefore from the perspective of the principal or investors that fund the project there is the concern that a low cash flow realization may be a result of the agent s actions rather than the project s fundamentals to provide the agent with appropriate incentives investors control the agent s wage and may also withdraw their financial support for the project and force its early termination we seek to characterize an optimal contract in this framework and relate it to the firm s choice of capital structure we develop a method to solve for the optimal contract given the incentive constraints in a continuous time setting and study the properties of the credit line debt and equity that implement the contract as in the discrete time model of demarzo and fishman 2003 the continuous time setting offers several peter m demarzo is from stanford university and yuliy sannikov is from u c berkeley we

how sensitive is short term japanese interest rate volatility to the level of the interest rate abstract the sensitivity of volatility to the level of the interest rate is well documented in the literature we investigate whether such results are robust over a range of maturities ranging from seven days to twelve months and whether these findings hold for offshore japanese yen rates the volatility is sensitive to level of the rate itself for every maturity examined

generalized methods of moments we provide a brief overview of applications of generalized method of moments in finance the models examined in the empirical finance literature especially in the asset pricing area often imply moment conditions that can be used in a straight forward way to estimate the model parameters without making strong assumptions regarding the stochastic properties of variables observed by the econometrician typically the number of moment conditions available to the econometrician would exceed the number of model parameters this gives rise to overidentifying restrictions that can be used to test the validity of the model specifications these advantages have led to the widespread use of the generalized method of moments in the empirical finance literature

frontiers in the economics of energy efficiency abstract energy efficiency has become an essential instrument to obtain effective greenhouse gas mitigation and reduced energy dependence this introductory article contextualizes the contributions of the supplemental issue by showing the new setting for energy efficiency economics and policy discussing the role of price instruments to promote energy savings presenting new approaches for energy efficiency policies and placing energy efficiency within a wider energy and environmental framework

pricing foreign currency options under stochastic interest rates abstract in this paper we build a general framework to price contingent claims on foreign currencies using the heath et al 1987 model of the term structure closed form solutions are obtained for european options on currencies and currency futures assuming that the volatility functions determining the term structure are deterministic as such this paper provides an example of a bond price process for both the domestic and foreign economies consistent with grabbe s 1983 formulation of the same problem

term structure movements and pricing interest rate contingent claims this paper derives an arbitrage free interest rate movements model ar model this model takes the complete term structure as given and derives the subsequent stochastic movement of the term structure such that the movement is arbitrage free we then show that the ar model can be used to price interest rate contingent claims relative to the observed complete term structure of interest rates this paper also studies the behavior and the economics of the model our approach can be used to price a broad range of interest rate contingent claims including bond options and callable bonds

arbitrage cointegration and testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in financial markets we use a no arbitrage cost of carry asset pricing model to show that the existence of coin tegration between spot and forward futures prices depends on the time series properties of the cost of carry we argue that the conditions for cointegration are more likely to hold in currency markets than in commodity markets explaining many of the empirical results in the literature we also use this model to demonstrate why the forward rate forecast error the basis and the forward premium are serially correlated and to develop econometric tests ofthe unbiasedness hypothesis sometimes called the simple efficiency hypothesis in various financial markets the unbiasedness hypothesis is so prevalent in the finance liter ature that many tests for it have been developed we examine four of the common tests and and use our cointegration results to demonstrate why each of these tests should reject the null hypothesis of unbiasedness we find strong support for our hypothesis in the existing empirical literature

some international evidence on the stochastic behavior of interest rates abstract this paper examines the stochastic behavior of short term interest rates in eleven countries following chan et al 1992a we consider eight stochastic models of short term interest rates all of which are nested within a discretized approximation to a differential equation we use the generalized method of moments to estimate the model the empirical results show that no single model can satisfactorily describe the stochastic structure of interest rates for all countries on balance if we classify the sample countries according to the size of the elasticity of variance of short term interest rates france holland and the usa belong to the group of high elasticity in comparison australia belgium germany and japan belong to the group of medium elasticity while canada italy switzerland and the uk belong to the group of low elasticity

law finance and firm growth we investigate how differences in legal and financial systems affect firms use of external financing to fund growth we show that in countries whose legal systems score high on an efficiency index a greater proportion of firms use long term external financing an active though not necessarily large stock market and a large banking sector are also associated with externally financed firm growth the increased reliance on external financing occurs in part because established firms in countries with well functioning institutions have lower profit rates government subsidies to industry do not increase the proportion of firms relying on external financing the corporate finance literature suggests that market imperfections caused by conflicts of interest and informational asymmetries between corporate insiders and investors constrain firms in their ability to fund investment projects the magnitude of these imperfections depends in part on the effectiveness of the legal and financial systems because these systems differ across countries the literature implies that there should exist systematic cross country differences in firms ability to obtain external capital to finance investment in this paper we examine whether the underdevelopment of legal and financial systems does prevent firms in some countries from investing in potentially profitable growth opportunities in particular we focus on the use of long term debt or external equity to fund growth see our earlier work demirgut kunt and maksimovic 1996a which compares firms financial structures in developed and developing countries and finds the greatest difference to be in the provision of long term credit we estimate a financial planning model to obtain the maximum growth rate that each firm in our thirty country sample could attain without access to long term financing we then compare these predicted growth rates to growth rates realized by firms in countries with differing degrees of development in their legal and financial systems our approach enables us to identify specific characteristics of the legal and financial systems that are associated with long term financing of firm growth thus we provide a micro level test of the hypoth

the other side of the trade off the impact of risk on executive compensation the principal agent model of executive compensation is of central importance to the modern theory of the firm and corporate governance yet the exiting empirical evidence supporting it is quite wea

the pricing of options on default free bonds recent developments in the finance literature dealing with the valuation of contingent claims have been triggered by black and scholes 2 with their valuation of european options on corporate stocks the type of valuation model derived by black and scholes is attractive because it is independent of preferences this independence is possible due to the fact that the contingent claims are usually assumed to be contingent on traded assets or traded state variables for example a european call option is a claim contingent on the value of the corresponding stock to maintain the independence of the claim from preferences however some variables have to be discarded and considered as constants for example the rate of interest which is not a traded state variable is considered a constant in most of the literature see black and scholes 2 merton 11 and ingersoll 9 though this approximation might not cause important discrepancies in the case of corporate liabilities and options on corporate liabilities the effect of such an approximation on the value of default free bonds and options on default free bonds is more important since these liabilities depend only on the rate of interest

bending the learning curve abstract the aim of this paper is to improve the application of the learning curve a popular tool used for forecasting future costs of renewable technologies in integrated assessment models iams first we formally discuss under what assumptions the traditional ols estimates of the learning curve can deliver meaningful predictions in iams we argue that the most problematic of them are the absence of any effect of technology cost on its demand reverse causality and the ability of iams to predict all determinants of cumulative capacity next we show that these assumptions can be relaxed by modifying the traditional econometric method used to estimate the learning curve the new estimation approach presented in this paper is robust to the two problems identified but preserves the reduced form character of the learning curve finally we provide new estimates of learning curves for wind turbines and pv technologies which are tailored for use in iams our results suggest that the learning rate should be revised upward for solar pv our estimate of learning rate for wind technology is almost the same as the traditional ols estimates

energy efficiency economics and policy energy efficiency and conservation are major factors in the reduction of the environmental impact of the energy sector particularly with regard to climate change energy efficiency also contributes to reducing external dependence and vulnerabilities in the energy domain in this paper we discuss the factors that influence energy efficiency and conservation decisions and the most appropriate policies for their promotion although not all public policies seem justified we argue that specific policies for promoting energy conservation may be required preferably based on economic instruments or on the provision of information to consumers

a theory of the nominal term structure of interest rates a model of the nominal term structure of interest rates is developed that has a positive and stationary process for the interest rate and delivers closed form expressions for the prices of discount bonds and european options on bonds unlike the one state variable version of the cox ingersoll and ross 1985 model this model even in its one state variable version allows the term premium to change sign as a function of the state and the term to maturity and also allows for shapes of the yield curve that are observed in the u s data but that are disallowed in the cox ingersoll and ross model article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

on alternative interest rate processes abstract in this paper alternative interest rate processes are estimated for denmark germany sweden and the uk using the generalized method of moments gmm in line with the study by chan karolyi longstaff and sanders 1992 on us data there seems to be a positive relation between interest rate level and volatility for some countries in contrast to their study it is found that mean reversion plays an important role for the specification of the interest rate dynamics the results seem to be robust to the use of different moment conditions and simulations of the estimated models reveal that they are fairly able to capture non fitted moments as well in addition there is evidence of a structural change in the danish interest rate process in august 1985 which may be due to a change in monetary policy the small sample properties of the gmm estimators are also studied through simulations

optimal corporate governance and compensation in a dynamic world we model long run firm performance management compensation and corporate governance in a dynamic nonstationary world many features of governance and compensation that have caused consternation among commentators arise naturally in this dynamic setting even though boards are rational and managers are powerless compensation changes depend on changes in the evolution of a latent state variable outside the manager s control board passivity is positively correlated with both the value of management compensation and the firm s good fortune managerial opportunism tends to follow sudden reversals of good fortune moreover managerial private benefits by increasing managers stake in the long run viability of the firm may actually ameliorate agency conflicts

stochastic volatility movements in short term interest rates and bond option values abstract two classes of models for pricing interest rate contingent claims are compared the first contains standard single factor models while the second includes stochastic volatility variants of these it is demonstrated that incorporating stochastic volatility significantly improves the ability of the models to fit movements in short term interest rates the fundamental reason for this is that standard univariate models do not generate enough conditional heteroskedasticity the models are also compared on the basis of bond option prices when each is constrained to fit a particular yield curve the results suggest that stochastic volatility models will typically produce lower option values than corresponding single factor models particularly for near the money to deep out of the money options this is because estimated historical volatilities are significantly lower under stochastic volatility when single factor models are constrained to the same level of volatility as implied by stochastic volatility models in most cases the pricing differences become minor

interest rates and the channels of monetary transmission some sectoral estimates abstract we estimate a small sectoral var model of the uk macroeconomy this model is then used to simulate the effects of an exogenous monetary policy shock upon asset prices bank balance sheet variables and final target variables activity and prices for the personal and corporate sectors significant sectoral differences are found among the channels of monetary transmission in addition the use of sectoral data facilitates the identification of distinct money and credit channels in the transmission of monetary policy these results contrast with the ambiguous findings on the roles of money and credit in the literature to date

credit derivatives with multiple debt issues abstract we evaluate the most actively traded types of credit derivatives within a unified pricing framework that allows for multiple debt issues since firms default on all of their obligations total debt is instrumental in the likelihood of default and therefore in credit derivatives valuation we use a single factor interest rate model where the exponential default frontier is based on total debt and is made coherent with observed bond prices analytical formulae are derived for credit default swaps total return swaps both fixed for fixed and fixed for floating and credit risk options cros price behaviors and hedging properties of all these credit derivatives are investigated simulations document that credit derivatives prices may be significantly affected by terms of debt other than those of the reference obligation the analysis of cros indicates their superior ability to fine tune the hedging of magnitude and arrival risks of default

who rebounds most estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for different uk socioeconomic groups this study estimates the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from various types of energy efficiency improvement and behavioural change by uk households and explores how these effects vary with total expenditure the methodology is based upon estimates of the expenditure elasticity and ghg intensity of 16 categories of goods and services and allows for the capital cost and embodied emissions of the energy efficiency measures themselves the study finds that rebound effects in ghg terms are modest 0 32 for measures affecting domestic energy use larger 25 65 for measures affecting vehicle fuel use and very large 66 106 for measures that reduce food waste furthermore measures undertaken by low income households are associated with the largest rebound effects with direct emissions forming a larger proportion of the total rebound effect for those households measures that are subsidised or affect highly taxed energy commodities may be less effective in reducing aggregate emissions these findings highlight the importance of allowing for rebound effects within policy appraisals as well as reinforcing the case for economy wide carbon pricing

single factor heath jarrow morton term structure models based on markov spot interest rate dynamics this paper considers the class of heath jarrow morton term structure models where the spot interest rate is markov and the term structure at time t is a function of time maturity and the spot interest rate at time t a representation for this class of models is derived and i show that the functional forms of the forward rate volatility structure and the initial forward rate curve cannot be arbitrarily chosen i provide necessary and sufficient conditions indicating which combinations of these functional forms are allowable i also derive a partial differential equation representation of the term structure dynamics that does not require explicit modeling of both the market price of risk and the drift term for the spot interest rate process using the analysis presented in this paper a class of intertemporal term structure models is derived

managerial legacies entrenchment and strategic inertia this paper argues that the legacy potential of a firm s strategy is an important deter minant of ceo compensation turnover and strategy change a legacy makes ceo replacement expensive because firm performance can only partially be attributed to a newly employed manager boards may therefore optimally allow an incumbent to be entrenched moreover when a firm changes strategy it is optimal to change the ceo because the incumbent has a vested interest in seeing the new strategy fail even though ceos have no specific skills in our model legacy issues can explain the empirical association between ceo and strategy change this paper proposes a model of ceo replacement and puts forward a novel determinant for turnover decisions the legacy potential of a firm s strategy we mean by this the extent to which a manager s decisions affect future firm cash flows potentially beyond the manager s own tenure the replacement of a ceo is arguably one of the most important decisions a firm takes yet the theoretical and empirical finance literature has relatively little to say about the firm and manager specific characteristics that lead to one manager being fired and replaced by another as brickley 2003 points out the only variable that predicts turnover empirically is poor firm performance but it has little pre dictive power theoretical papers on managerial turnover tend to reduce ceo successions to a sequence of static interactions see below for more details as such they do not distinguish between a ceo who is hired and can start a fresh project or one who is constrained in this choice because he inherits a prede cessor s long term strategy our paper focuses on this latter phenomenon and investigates turnover decisions when strategy choices have a legacy potential the fact that a dynamic link exists between a ceo and his predecessor is probably more recognized in the accounting literature than in finance pourciau both authors are from the toulouse school of economics and the institut d administration des

energy efficiency subsidies with price quality discrimination abstract we compare various designs of energy efficiency subsidies in a market subject to both energy use externalities and price quality discrimination by a monopolist we find that differentiated subsidies can establish the social optimum unlike per quality regimes ad valorem regimes generate downstream interferences subsidising of the high end good leads the monopolist to reduce the quality of the low end good for this reason ad valorem differentiated rates should always decrease with energy efficiency a result seemingly at odds with actual practice in contrast with per quality differentiated subsidies the rates can increase if the externality is large enough relative to the market share of low type consumers contrary to differentiated subsidies what we shall call single instrument subsidies only achieve second best outcomes a uniform ad valorem subsidy should have a rate higher than that needed to specifically internalise energy use externalities lastly if as is often observed in practice only the high end good is to be incentivised a per quality regime should be preferred to an ad valorem one an ad valorem tax on the high end good may even be preferred to an ad valorem subsidy if the externality is small enough and low end consumers dominate the market

an exact bond option formula this paper derives a closed form solution for european options on pure discount bonds assuming a mean reverting gaussian interest rate model as in vasicek 8 the formula is extended to european options on discount bond portfolios

measurement of energy efficiency based on economic foundations abstract energy efficiency policy is seen as a very important activity by almost all policy makers in practical energy policy analysis the typical indicator used as a proxy for energy efficiency is energy intensity however this simple indicator is not necessarily an accurate measure given changes in energy intensity are a function of changes in several factors as well as true energy efficiency hence it is difficult to make conclusions for energy policy based upon simple energy intensity measures related to this some published academic papers over the last few years have attempted to use empirical methods to measure the efficient use of energy based on the economic theory of production however these studies do not generally provide a systematic discussion of the theoretical basis nor the possible parametric empirical approaches that are available for estimating the level of energy efficiency the objective of this paper therefore is to sketch out and explain from an economic perspective the theoretical framework as well as the empirical methods for measuring the level of energy efficiency additionally in the second part of the paper some of the empirical studies that have attempted to measure energy efficiency using such an economics approach are summarized and discussed

inflation and real interest rates on assets with different risk characteristics given the importance of ex ante real interest rates to economic decision making it is no surprise that much empirical research focuses on them 1 several recent studies find that the ex ante real returns for short term u s treasury securities are not constant and are negatively correlated both with inflation and with nominal interest rates this paper examines the extent to which these findings hold for assets of longer maturity are robust with respect to the choice of price index and are stable over time we expand the set of assets studied to include those of longer maturity both publicly and privately issued for two reasons first their ex ante real returns may differ substantially from that of a short term nominally riskless security second because longer maturity assets have risk characteristics closer to capital their ex ante real returns are potentially more relevant for investment and savings decisions we explore the use of various price indices because the index used in most studies the consumer price index severely overstates inflation during the 1970s as a result of its inappropriate treatment of residential housing costs 2 this overstatement casts doubt on an important finding of previous studies that there are long stretches of time during the 1970s when ex ante real rates are significantly negative given the existence of holding costs for the goods relevant to most price indices and the absence of a riskless real return no arbitrage conditions are violated by a negative ex ante real rate however its persistence is problematical because asset holders are typically assumed to have a positive rate of time preference which ensures a positive ex ante real rate in the long run we find that before 1979 a negative relationship of ex ante real rates both with inflation and with nominal interest rates appears for the longer maturity assets as well as the short term nominally riskless asset indeed the relationship grows

modeling the dynamics of chinese spot interest rates using the daily data of chinese 7 day repo rates from january 1 1997 to december 31 2008 this paper tests a variety of popular spot rate models including single factor diffusion garch markov regime switching and jump diffusion models we document that chinese spot rates are subject to both market forces and administrative forces garch regime switching and jump diffusion models capture some important features of the dynamics of chinese spot rates but all models under study are overwhelmingly rejected we further explore possible sources of model misspecification using diagnostic tests

intergenerational effects of a green tax reform for a more sustainable social security system abstract green tax reforms are popular in some circles not only because of their direct effect on reducing pollution but also because their revenue capacity may allow to reduce other more distortionary taxes despite their potential benefits the political implementation of green tax reforms is not straightforward changes in environmental taxes have different intergenerational effects which need to be taken into account when considering their political support among a country s population in this paper we analyze the economic and intergenerational welfare effects of introducing a green tax reform to ameliorate the spanish social security system we consider two types of energy taxes an energy consumption tax and an energy input tax we find that both types of reforms are favored by young individuals but rejected by older generations the number of generations supporting the reform depends crucially on the disutility that individuals derive from pollution suggesting that an increase in environmental awareness may be needed for green tax reforms to be politically viable

pricing interest rate options in a two factor cox ingersoll ross model of the term structure solutions are presented for prices on interest rate options in a two factor version of the cox ingersoll ross model of the term structure specific solutions are developed for caps on floating interest rates and for european options on discount bonds coupon bonds coupon bond futures and euro dollar futures the solutions for the options are expressed as multivariate integrals and we show how to reduce the calculations to univariate numerical integrations which can be calculated very quickly the two factor model provides more flexibility in fitting observed term structures and the fixed parameters of the model can be set to capture the variability of the term structure over time article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

another look at models of the short term interest rate the short term rate of interest is fundamental to much of theoretical and empirical finance yet no consensus has emerged on the dynamics of its volatility we show that models which parameterize volatility only as a function of interest rate levels tend to over emphasize the sensitivity of volatility to levels and fail to model adequately the serial correlation in condi tional variances on the other hand serial correlation based models like garch models fail to capture adequately the relationship between interest rate levels and volatility we introduce and test a new class of models for the dynamics of short term interest rate volatility which allows volatility to depend on both interest rate levels and information shocks two important conclusions emerge first the sensitivity of interest rate volatility to interest rate levels has been overstated in the literature while this relationship is important adequately modeling volatility as a function of unexpected information shocks is also important sec ond we conclude that the volatility processes in many existing theoretical models of interest rates are misspecified and suggest new paths toward improving the theory

stochastic processes for interest rates and equilibrium bond prices default free bonds represent in essence money sold forward the investor gives dollars say to the government now in exchange for a contract which promises to pay with probability one a given number of dollars at maturity and possibly a stream of intermediate coupon payments prior to maturity only recently have financial economists begun to examine the pricing of those bonds in a portfolio context in that framework nominal liquidity premiums or risk premiums on long term default free bonds are attributable to uncertainty about taste technological and price level changes which may occur prior to maturity of the bonds and prior to each coupon payment if any to the extent that the investor is unable to diversify away that uncertainty there is a systematic risk attached to the marginal utility which he or she can derive from the use in consumption or investment of the dollar payoffs on the bonds in some term structure models the instantaneous or short term rate of interest denoted here as a function of time t by r t in nominal terms and r t in real terms can be taken as a sufficient statistic1 for the source of systematic uncertainty about the marginal utility of the proceeds to be derived from defaultfree bonds maturing beyond the next instant e g merton 1974 vasicek 1977 cox ingersoll and ross 1977 specific assumptions about tastes technology and utility functions lead to specific equilibrium stochastic processes for the instantaneous short term riskless rate and longer term bond prices which are modelled as functionally dependent upon maturity and that short term riskless rate if a closed form solution exists for the long term bond price as a function of maturity and the short term interest rate it will be conditional inter alia on the parameters of the stochastic process for that short term rate marsh 1981 proposed that the closed form solutions could be tested in terms of the restrictions implied cross sectionally on the parameters of the time series process for the returns or prices of longer term bonds each with a given term to maturity for an analogy outside the term structure literature think of the closed form solution given by black and scholes 1972 for the price of an option on a nondividend paying stock with lognormal price dynamics given the model the cross section of time series for the changes in prices for each of the several options written on the same stock are not unrestricted their dispersion is functionally linked to the same volatility parameter for the stock price thus the option model including

the effect of risk on the ceo market this article presents a market equilibrium model of ceo assignment pay and incentives under risk aversion and moral hazard each of the three outcomes can be summarized by a single closed form equation in the presence of moral hazard assignment is distorted from positive assortative matching on firm size as firms with higher risk or disutility choose less talented ceos such firms also pay higher salaries in the cross section but economywide increases in risk or the disutility of being a ceo do not affect pay the strength of incentives depends only on the disutility of effort and is independent of risk and risk aversion if the ceo can affect firm risk incentives rise and are increasing in risk and risk aversion we calibrate the losses from various forms of poor corporate governance such as failures in monitoring and inefficiencies in ceo assignment jel g34 j33 this article presents a market equilibrium model of ceo assignment pay and incentives risk averse managers of different talents are hired in a competitive market by heterogeneous firms which vary in their size risk and level of effort required the level of pay drives the assignment of talent to firms the strength of incentives induces the efficient effort level and is determined by an optimal contracting approach our main contribution is to incorporate risk into a ceo market equilibrium in a tractable manner a large empirical literature has shown that risk is a firstorder determinant of compensation contracts demsetz and lehn 1985 garen 1994 core and guay 1999 oyer and schaefer 2004 peters 2009 peters and wagner 2009 but most theories assume risk neutrality this assumption is