a new model of the gold standard this paper presents a new model of the gold standard that enables the authors to disentangle the different monetary functions of gold it builds in the sensible condition that the easiest gold will be mined first and takes seriously the constraint implied by the irreversibility of gold mining this constraint generates important asymmetries between the effects of rises and falls in exogenous variables the authors model also handles gold and the demand for it at an explicit primitive level and thus enables them to carry out a wide range of interesting conceptual experiments

the pricing of durable exhaustible resources partial or total durability characterizes a large class of exhaustible resources hotelling s r percent rule will apply to a durable resource produced in a competitive market but will not apply if the resource is produced in a monopolistic market however the r percent rule does not mean that price is steadily rising it is shown that in general the competitive market price will fall initially as the stock in circulation increases and later will rise as the stock decreases and eventually depreciates toward zero after production ceases accounting for durability may thus help explain the u shaped long term price profiles observed for many resources 11 references 3 figures

the fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation abstract for the period 1860 to 1939 the simple correlation of the u s commercial paper rate with the contemporaneous inflation rate is 0 17 the corresponding correlation for the period 1950 to 1979 is 0 71 this paper attributes this apparent change in the fisher relation to differences in the stochastic process of inflation rather than a change in any structural relationship between interest rates and expected inflation contrary to recent claims in the literature there is little evidence of inflation non neutrality in data from the pre world war i period

alternative approaches to money and growth this paper reexamines the issue of money and growth in an economy with both endogenous labor supply and endogenous capital stock using three recently developed approaches the money in the utility function approach the cash in advance approach and the transactions costs approach by establishing a qualitative equivalence between alternative setups the authors find economically justifiable conditions such that all comparative statics results derived from the aforementioned approaches are identical copyright 1992 by ohio state university press

inequality preserving rationing abstract the present paper considers rationing problems interpreted as e g bankruptcy problems or taxation problems we demonstrate that among continuous and order preserving rationing methods the proportional method is the only rationing method that preserves inequality in both gains and losses

empirical investigation of the long term movement of resource prices a preliminary report abstract this note reports the results of an investigation into the long run movements of natural resource prices and their relationship to interest rates and extraction costs the results do not support the equilibrium type hotelling rule but rather a more general asset market approach

time and punishment an intertemporal model of crime if an increase in the rate at which a criminal commits crimes lowers the expected time until detection the income from crime net of expected fines must be discounted at a rate that varies with the crime rate this paper models the criminal s choice of the optimal crime rate under such conditions it is shown that irrespective of the criminal s attitude toward risk an increase in the probability of detection is more likely to deter crime than a comparable increase in penalties other implications of the model for the optimal enforcement of laws are also explored

oil pricing policies and macroeconomy for an oil based economy abstract this paper analyses the oil pricing policies for an oil based economy within a national planning framework it contains a total asset maximization problem in the non oil sector and a macroeconomic model the main conclusion is that hotelling s r percent rule fails to apply for an oil based nation if the minimum import constraint becomes binding therefore the difference between the marginal revenue growth rate and the yield on domestic investment turns down when the import constraint is binding and then it goes through several cycles before it turns up as the constraint is non binding over the planning horizon

a varma test on the gibson paradox we applied the varma test to examine the dynamic relation between prices and interest rates the dynamic relation which is important to characterize the nature of the gibson paradox provides economists new insight in discriminating against competing theories in light of our empirical findings all theories in the literature lose their persuasiveness we found some evidence of unidirectional relation from prices to interest rates but we found no evidence of unidirectional relation from interest rates to prices hence the business cycle explanations advanced by wicksell 1907 keynes 1930 lee and petruzzi 1986 and barsky and summers 1988 are especially in jeopardy a century and a half after its birth this paradox is more puzzling than ever copyright 1990 by mit press

durable goods monopoly with varying demand this paper solves for the proflt maximising strategy of a durable goods monopolist when incoming demand varies over time each period additional consumers enter the market these consumers can then choose whether and when to purchase we flrst characterise the consumer s utility maximisation problem and under a monotonicity condition show the proflt maximising allocation can be solved through a myopic algorithm which has an intuitive marginal revenue interpretation consumers ability to delay creates an asymmetry in the optimal price path which exhibits fast increases and slow declines this asymmetry pushes the price level above that charged by a flrm facing the average level of demand applications of this framework include deterministic demand cycles one ofi shocks and iid demand draws the optimal policy outperforms renting and can be implemented by a time consistent best price provision

a long view of real rates in light of the large and sustained rise in real interest rates in the late 1970s and early 1980s this paper reviews i the theoretical discussion on the determination of nominal and real interest rates ii the factors determining real interest rates and iii problems of defining and measuring the real rate we go on to examine the historical record of real interest rates in france germany the uk and the usa since 1875 we find that high real rates since 1980 seem to be a return to a long run norm and it is the period from the second world war to 1979 that represents a more natural period in which to investigate an abrupt change of behaviour for real interest rates copyright 1999 by oxford university press

valuing mineral reserves when capacity constrains production abstract we add a capacity constraint and heterogeneous reserves to the hotelling valuation principle this produces a more general version of the principle that is more consistent with empirical valuations while retaining the underlying relationship between net price and reserve value

the gibson paradox and the monetary standard this paper analyzes the gibson paradox a strong positive correlation between prices and interest rates over the past 250 years the phenomenon of gibson s paradox is significant in britain but not significant in the united states however there is a significant correlation between british interest rates and u s price levels the price movements show a strong characteristic of random walk under the gold standard but appear not to be random walk under the non gold standard based on a the price random walk assumption and b the real return arbitrage assumption this paper constructs a simple model to explain the above interesting empirical results

burglary and income inequality abstract in a model where risk neutral agents have differing legal incomes which may be supplemented by burglary we study the effects of income distribution on the level of burglary assuming that a detected burglar is incarcerated for a fixed term and assuming that burglars choose target houses using the signal of house quality we show how increases in income inequality may increase the level of crime in particular increases in relative differential inequality unambiguously increase burglary crime corollaries are that a more regressive income tax increases the level of crime and that richer neighborhoods may have lower crime rates

resource curse or not a question of appropriability this thesis presents three self contained essays focusing on empirical questions in growth and development economics each article addresses specific questions on why countries perform differently in particular i analyse the effect of democracy on economic development the relationship between natural resources and growth and the efficiency of foreign development assistance in the first essay democracy consolidation and growth i analyse the effect of democracy on economic growth in this context i argue that an important aspect to consider is how consolidated political systems are put simply i find that it is not only a question of how democratic countries are but also how long they have been democratic in other words economic performance tends to improve with the duration of uninterrupted democracy the performance of autocracies on the other hand tends to deteriorate over time however for newly established political systems there seems to be a cost of being democratic this implies that democracies only bear their fruit after some time the analysis has important policy implications to overcome initial straits international assistance focused on democratic consolidation may be important and a very good investment in fostering long run development the second essay resource curse or not a question of appropriability together with anne boschini and jesper roine is concerned with the relation between natural resources and economic development for most laymen as well as for most economists it would seem reasonable that countries richly endowed in natural resources also benefit from this wealth however a large literature has found a systematic negative effect of natural resource abundance on economic growth we suggest that this so called resource curse is not determined by resource endowments alone but rather by the interaction between the type of resources a country possesses and the quality of institutions in the country this combination of factors determines what we call the appropriability of a resource the concept of appropriability captures the likelihood of natural resources leading to rentseeking corruption or conflicts which in turn will harm economic development our results suggest that if institutions are good enough the curse may be turned into a blessing this may explain why some countries such as norway and botswana tend to benefit from their resources while others such as angola and sierra leone do not the third and final essay of this thesis foreign sectoral aid fungibility growth and poverty reduction is a contribution to the aid efficiency literature which is concerned with the question of whether aid helps or hinders economic development foreign development assistance is often targeted on specific public expenditure sectors if this aid is not used in the sector for which it was granted e g health education it is said to be fungible and donors may end up financing something completely different from what they intended e g military expenditures the major concern about sectoral fungibility is that the alternative use of aid may be less productive or less socially useful however measuring fungibility is not sufficient to determine whether foreign sectoral aid fungibility is actually harmful what is important is how the funds treated as fungible are used the essay starts by obtaining estimates of fungibility for 57 countries the results suggest that sectoral aid is indeed largely treated as fungible by recipient countries next to assess the economic and health effects of fungibility these estimates are incorporated into an empirical model of aid and growth as well as into a model of aid and infant mortality altogether i find no evidence of more fungible sectoral aid leading to worse performance

household equivalence scales and interpersonal comparisons recent papers have used household equivalence scales to construct measures of welfare inequality this procedure rests on an often implicit value judgement namely that if after adjustment for demographic characteristics two households are on the same indifference curve they are equally well off that value judgement is not compelling and there are situations in which it is ethically repugnant this is particularly likely if tastes are functions of past experience and income

the effects of periodic quotas limiting the stock of imports of durables abstract analyses of trade quotas typically assume that the quota restricts the flow of some nondurable good many real world quotas however restrict the stock of durable imports we consider the cases where 1 anyone is free to export against such quotas and where 2 only those allocated portions of the total quota are free to export against such quotas recent econometric investigations of such quotas have focused on the price of the durable as an indicator of tightness induced by the quota we show why this is an inappropriate indicator and suggest alternatives

natural resource economics under the rule of hotelling abstract natural resource stocks held in situ are physical assets equilibrium in the assets market requires that their rates of return be such that their owners are just willing to hold on to them rather than invest elsewhere i discuss a number of factors relating to the evolution of extraction costs to the durability of the resource to market structure and to uncertainty that are important in correctly characterizing the rate of return on holding exhaustible natural resource stocks the emphasis is put on how those factors can potentially help bridge the gap between the basic hotelling s rule of natural resource exploitation and the historical behaviour of the flow price of a number of resources i also highlight some theoretical and empirical issues that need further attention

jointly produced exhaustible resources abstract natural resources are often produced jointly from composite ores which in turn are extracted from fixed reserve endowments in this paper market behavior is examined for such resources and it is shown how the price of each resource will depend on its demand and the demands and storage costs for the other resources present in the ore the measurement of resource scarcity is discussed and the effects of uncertainty over future resource demands are examined it is shown that the competitive market will still extract produce and store at socially optimal rates if firms are risk neutral and the average cost of storage is constant policy implications are noted particularly with reference to government stockpiling programs

monopoly production of durable exhaustible resources we examine monopoly production of a durable exhaustible resource previous authors have implicitly assumed that the monopolist is able to make binding commitments about future decisions we consider the more plausible case in which the monopolist lacks this ability and must choose from dynamically consistent plans two models are considered a discrete time model in which there is a strictly finite initial stock of the resource and a continuous time model in which costs are an increasing function of cumulative production we find that as a general result monopoly leads to overconservation the monopolist who cannot precommit produces the efficient quantity ultimately but does so too slowly by contrast the monopolist who can precommit produces less than the efficient stock even in the limit we also find that increased importance of exhaustibility hastens the extraction of the resource copyright 1990 by the london school of economics and political science

crime and local inequality in south africa the authors examine the effects of local inequality on property and violent crime in south africa their findings are consistent with economic theories relating inequality to property crime and also with sociological theories that imply that inequality leads to crime in general burglary rates are 20 30 percent higher in police station jurisdictions that are the wealthiest among their neighbors suggesting that criminals travel to neighborhoods where the expected returns from burglary are highest the authors do not find evidence that inequality between racial groups fosters interpersonal conflict at the local level

some analytics of the laffer curve abstract it is shown that in a general equilibrium model with one private good one public good labour and an income tax certain widely assumed properties of the laffer curve do not necessarily hold for well behaved functional forms it may not be continuous and may not have an interior maximum its slope depends on technology as well as on the tax elasticity of labour supply for certain technologies a more negative elasticity may imply a more positive slope moreover the relevant tax elasticity is a general equilibrium one which may differ in sign from the widely quoted partial equilibrium one

inequality reducing and inequality preserving transformations of incomes symmetric and individualistic transformations abstract this paper analyzes the redistributive effect of transformations of incomes when the same transformation is applied to all incomes following marshall and olkin lnequalities a theory of majorization and its applications academic press new york 1979 we consider two competing families of nested inequality criteria all of which are consistent with the lorenz ordering looking at the transformations that reduce the inequality of incomes we show that within each family all the criteria generate exactly the same class of transformations we next identify those transformations that preserve or convert a given inequality ranking into a finer ranking we finally find necessary and sufficient conditions to be imposed on a pair of transformations for the inequality ranking of distributions to be preserved journal of economic literature classification number d31 d63 h24

inequality and crime this paper considers the relationship between inequality and crime using data from urban counties the behavior of property and violent crime are quite different inequality has no effect on property crime but a strong and robust impact on violent crime with an elasticity above 0 5 by contrast poverty and police activity have significant effects on property crime but little on violent crime property crime is well explained by the economic theory of crime while violent crime is better explained by strain and social disorganization theories

development crime and punishment accounting for the international differences in crime rates abstract this paper analyzes the determinants of the heterogeneity in crime rates across countries focusing on reporting rates and development the behavior of the reporting rate is studied by comparing data from victimization surveys to official records reporting rates are strongly correlated with development richer countries report a higher fraction of crimes the positive relation between development and crime found in previous studies is shown to result from this correlation once the presence of the reporting error is accounted for development does not affect crime reductions in inequality and increases in growth and education are associated with reductions in crime rates

ethically robust comparisons of bidimensional distributions with an ordinal attribute abstract we provide foundations for robust normative evaluation of distributions of two attributes one of which is cardinally measurable and transferable between individuals and the other is ordinal and non transferable the result that we establish takes the form of an analogue to the standard hardy littlewood polya theorem for distributions of one cardinal attribute more specifically we identify the transformations of the distributions which guarantee that social welfare increases according to utilitarian unanimity provided that the utility function is concave in the cardinal attribute and that its marginal utility with respect to the same attribute is non increasing in the ordinal attribute we establish that this unanimity ranking of the distributions is equivalent to the ordered poverty gap quasi ordering introduced by bourguignon 12 finally we show that if one distribution dominates another according to the ordered poverty gap criterion then the former can be derived from the latter by means of an appropriate and finite sequence of such transformations

ranking income distributions a large variety of policy questions involve choices between social states and a consequent ordering of the feasible alternatives when these social states are related to the levels of welfare experienced by individuals or households two central issues stand out in determining the relative desirability of different social outcomes one of these is the essentially positive exercise of achieving comparability between households with different characteristics such as composition or preferences operating in different environments for example facing different price structures the other concerns the normative judgments implicit in the evaluation of alternative allocations of resourcesthe emphasis placed on inequality between households and the extent to which greater inequality can be compensated by higher average living standards this paper focuses on the second of these issues and in doing so we abstract from the problem of household comparability by considering a population of n households identical in all respects except for their incomes the question of ordering social states then becomes one of ranking income distributions over a group of anonymous households or individuals borrowing the usual assumptions imposed on consumer preferences we may suppose that a social ordering of income distributions can be represented by a welfare function 2

the design of direct taxation and family benefits abstract the subject of this paper is the design of the personal income tax and social security benefits that vary with the size of the family it is concerned with the analytical problems of policy design that arise from constraints on the instruments which may be used from differences in social judgements about the desirability of redistribution and from differences of view about the disincentive effects of taxation the paper considers these issues in the context of the french tax benefit system and the implications of the french system being harmonised towards certain features of the british system

blueprints for exchange rate management list of figures list of tables preface list of conference participants m miller b eichengreen and r portes editors introduction historical perspectives a giovannini how do fixed exchange rate regimes work evidence from the gold standard bretton woods and the ems b eichengreen discussion s n broadberry monetary interdependence and deflation in britain and the united states between the wars p turner discussion theoretical issues g s alogoskoufis stabilization policy fixed exchange rates and target zones n rankin discussion a hook and d walton commodity price indicators a case for discretion rather than rules j m boughton discussion j m boughton policy assignment strategies with somewhat flexible exchange rates d vines discussion m miller and p weller exchange rate bands and realignments in a stationary stochastic setting j driffill discussion empirical testing d currie and s wren lewis a comparison of alternative regimes for international macropolicy coordination p minford exchange rate regimes and policy coordination s wren lewis discussion a h hallett g holtham and g hutson exchange rate targeting as surrogate international cooperation p levine discussion p levine d currie and j gaines the use of simple rules for international policy agreements f van der ploeg discussion index

the optimal production of an exhaustible resource when price is exogenous and stochastic this paper examines the optimal production of a resource such as oil when its price is determined exogenously e g by a cartel such as opec and is subject to stochastic fluctuations away from an expected growth path we first examine the dependence of production on extraction cost and show that the conventional exponential decline curve is indeed optimal if marginal cost is constant with respect to the rate of extraction but is a hyperbolic function of the reserve level we next show that uncertainty about future price affects the optimal production rate in two ways first if marginal cost is a convex concave function of the rate of production stochastic fluctuations in price raise lower average cost over time so that there is an incentive to speed up slow down production second the option value of the reserve i e the ability to withhold production indefinitely and never incur the cost of extraction provides an incentive to slow down the rate of production

optimal sequential investment when capital is not readily reversible when investment opportunities arrive one at a time and are reviewed sequentially a corporation s optimal policy differs from a standard net present value rule if the corporation exercises control over an industry state variable and control is costly the first condition presupposes a degree of market power for the firm the second occurs if corporate investment decisions are imperfectly reversible to address the problem of optimal investment in this context a firm s investment decisions are modeled as a markov reward process the causes of economic irreversibility are discussed and general propositions concerning the optimal investment policy are derived these propositions are then applied to the optimization of an exploration program by an oligopolistic firm a price leader under particular demand and distributional assumptions solutions for the optimal decision rule and the value of the exploration program are obtained and their properties examined current investment may affect future opportunities by creating growth opportunities as defined by myers 16 see also spence 25 or by reducing the value of an existing opportunity set despite the known potential for these interactions capital budgeting techniques such as net present valuation scenario planning and monte carlo simulation focus exclusively on the stand alone value of an investment the capacity for modeling interactions is present in the multiperiod models of merton 16 bogue and roll 5 and others the absence of applications however is evidence that actual economic interactions between current and future opportunities are not well understood this paper develops a model of a firm facing a sequence of interdependent growth opportunities opportunities have positive net present values because the firm exercises market power in its product market current investment changes the value of future opportunities through its effect on a product market variable the model is used to examine the impact of demand industry structure and technology on optimal investment rules and on the value of aggregate growth

other people s money cash in advance microfoundations for optimal currency areas abstract in the traditional theory of optimal currency areas there are potential gains for stabilization policy with an independent exchange rate and money because rigidity of prices causes an inadequate response of relative prices to shocks recent empirical work using modern extensions of the mundell fleming model based on nominal contracts has supported this view this paper examines whether there is support for it in a classical representative agent model of linked open economies and finds that there is the result comes from the cash in advance constraint under which the household faces an inevitable delay between working receiving cash and being able to spend the proceeds this delay is the cash in advance analogue of the nominal price rigidity in the optimal currency area models

gibson s paradox and the gold standard this paper contributes a new element to the explanation of the gibson paradox the puzzling correlation between interest rates and the price level seen during the gold standard period a shock that raises the underlying real rate of return in the economy reduces the equilibrium relative price of gold and with the nominal price of gold pegged by the authorities must raise the price level the mechanism involves the allocation of gold between monetary and nonmonetary uses our explanation helps to resolve some important anomalies in previous work and is supported by empirical evidence along a number of dimensions

more inequality more crime a panel cointegration analysis for the united states abstract this study employs state level panel data to examine the effect of income inequality on crime in the united states using panel cointegration techniques we find a significant negative effect of inequality on crime

models of resource markets and the explanation of resource price behaviour abstract much of the recent theoretical work in resource economics has been aimed at relaxing the stringent simplifying assumptions of the basic hotelling model in an attempt to better explain observed resource price behaviour this paper surveys the characteristics of exhaustible resource markets that are likely to be important for the development of successful positive models in particular we discuss exploration and its relationship to production and market price the effects of various forms of uncertainty on price behaviour and for some resources the treatment of durability finally we address the question of whether producer behaviour can properly be viewed as that of dynamic optimization this paper should be seen as an attempt to stimulate discussion over research directions and priorities in resource economics

national accounting with natural and other types of capital we do double entry national accounting and incorporate zero profit arbitrageconditions euler equations for different types of capital includingnatural capital in non balanced growth capital gains terms for capitalgoods appear in the income side of the accounts depreciation terms appearon the product or expenditure side we consider renewable natural capital aswell as non renewable of both durable and non durable types

economic inequality and its socioeconomic impact abstract income inequality is of fundamental interest not only to economists but also to other social scientists a substantial literature in economics and the social sciences has investigated the relationship between income inequality and economic growth and a variety of social phenomena the links between inequality and economic growth are explored as well as those between inequality and such key social variables as political conflict education health and crime the analysis in this paper follows a two step process first a review of the empirical evidence relating inequality to growth and to each of the above social variables is undertaken second the various causal mechanisms that have been proposed in the social science literature to explain those links are surveyed

domestic burglaries and the real price of audio visual goods some time series evidence for britain this paper explores the relationship between the real price of audio visual goods and domestic burglaries using british data our findings suggest that the falling real price of these consumer goods has contributed to a reduction in domestic burglary activity

monopoly extraction of a durable non renewable resource failure of the coase conjecture the author studies a perfect information rational expectations markov equilibrium for the situation where a monopolist extracts a nonrenewable resource that is converted to a durable good even if short run extraction costs are constant the coase conjectur e fails provided that the depreciation rate of the durable good is positive copyright 1993 by the london school of economics and political science

a new perspective on the gold standard inflation as a population phenomenon abstract the purpose of this paper is to contribute a new model of the gold standard focusing on the interaction between resource scarcity and demographics in a dynamic micro founded model we find that i prices and equilibrium gold holdings increase with population a scale effect but decrease with the population growth rate ii that the gold standard implies deflation unless extraction resources outstrip population growth and iii there is no optimal quantity of money the predictions of the model are examined using a structural var our results also shed light on debates about the viability of a return to the gold standard and more generally on the interaction between policy variables and scarce resources

inflation real returns and capital investment we find evidence for the hypothesis of mundell 1963 and tobin 1965 that the expected real return component of interest rates is negatively related to the expected inflation component in the mundell tobin model the variation in expected real returns is caused by the variation in expected inflation our evidence suggests however that the variation in expected real returns is more fundamentally an outcome of the capital expenditures process equilibrium expected real returns vary directly with capital expenditures in order to induce equilibrium allocations of resources between consumption and investment this positive relation between expected real returns and real activity which comes out of the real sector combines with a negative relation between expected inflation and real activity which is traced to the monetary sector thus inducing the negative relation between expected inflation and expected real returns predicted by mundell and tobin but explained in terms of a model much different from theirs

a model of the classical gold standard with depletion abstract the operation and properties of the classical gold standard are well recognized however one aspect that has not been dealt with is that gold has the characteristics of a durable but depletable resource in this paper we compare the simple classical model of the gold standard with a model of the gold standard that incorporates the durable depletable nature of gold using numerical simulation techniques we demonstrate an inescapable tendency to long run deflation when account is taken of the resource constraint these results are consistent with and without technological progress and variable real rates of return

a tale of two effects abstract this paper investigates the relationship between nominal interest rates and prices using nearly two centuries of data from ten industrial countries both a positive relationship between interest rates and price levels that is a positive gibson effect and a negative relationship between interest rates and subsequent price changes that is a negative fama fisher effect prevailed until world war i we propose a simple explanation wherein this doubly paradoxical juxtaposition of effects arises when money is supplied inelastically and prices are flexible this double paradox disappeared after world war ii when economies became mostly characterized by elastic money and sticky prices during that period a positive fama fisher effect emerged while the gibson effect largely dissipated

on the extraction of an exhaustible resource by a monopoly hotelling s r percent rule does not hold for monopoly extractors of durable exhaustible resources an example with a nondurable resource in which the rule also fails to hold is presented an economy with a fixed average propensity to save is modelled the monopoly extractor recognizes that resource extraction by affecting output and hence capital accumulation affects future demand the firm exploits this effect by causing the marginal profitability of extraction to grow faster or slower than the rate of interest depending upon initial conditions conditions are developed under which the growth rate will be less than the interest rate

forecasting pre world war i inflation the fisher effect and the gold standard we examine interest and inflation rates from 1879 to 1913 deflation prior to 1896 was followed by inflation average u s inflation was 3 1 percentage points higher in the years after 1896 yet nominal interest rates were no higher after 1896 this nonadjustment of nominal rates would be consistent with rational expectations if inflation was not forecastable and indeed univariate tests show little sign of serial correlation but gold production does forecast inflation the relationship between mining and inflation was such that expected inflation should have risen 300 basis points between 1890 and 1910 we consider explanations of this failure to foresee the shift in inflation after 1896 and conclude that it is not persuasive evidence that investors ignored relevant information but does suggest great uncertainty about the appropriate model for analyzing the economy

crime punishment and background risks abstract we show that if the punishment for a property crime effectively eliminates an individual s initial wealth as with a very long prison sentence then such criminal activities become less desirable for a risk averse and prudent individual if his initial wealth distribution undergoes a second order stochastic dominant improvement similar results obtain under additional restrictions if the punishment reduces an individual s initial wealth by some factor less than 1 in a general equilibrium model where the endogenous victimization risk is part of individuals background risks we also show that the availability of insurance for the victimization risk lowers economy wide crime rates

the swings of u s inflation and the gibson paradox in recent business cycles u s inflation has experienced a reduction of volatility and a severe weakening in the correlation to the nominal interest rate gibson paradox we examine these facts in an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with money our findings point at a flatter new keynesian phillips curve higher price stickiness and a lower persistence of markup shocks as the main explanatory factors in addition a higher interest rate elasticity of money demand an increasing role of demand side shocks and a less systematic behavior of fed s monetary policy also account for the recent patterns of u s inflation dynamics jel e32 e47

neighbourhood income inequality and property crime this paper examines the relationship between income inequality and property crime using census block group data from three us cities nashville tn portland or and tucson az this paper is one o

redistributive effects of minimal equal sacrifice taxation we examine the circumstances under which minimal equal sacrifice taxation reduces income inequality focusing on absolute sacrifice and relative inequality we show that after tax incomes are more equally distributed than before tax incomes and that after tax inequality decreases with the revenue to be raised if and only if the elasticity of the marginal utility of income is decreasing however other things equal after tax inequality is shown to decline as the utility function becomes more concave we investigate next how these conclusions extend when one takes the absolute inequality view and considers that it is the relative loss in utility that has to be equalized across individuals

a viable gold standard requires flexible monetary and fiscal policy national domestic credit expansion dce policies which offset the effect of money demand shocks on international gold reserves the gold standard collapses with certainty in finite time through a speculative selling attack against one of the currencies various policies for postponing a collapse are considered when a responsive dce policy eliminates the danger of a run on a country s reserves the exogenous shocks disturbing the system which previously were reflected in reserve flows now show up in the behaviour of the public debt unless the primary non interest government deficit is permitted to respond to these shocks the public debt is likely to rise or fall to unsustainable levels for the idealized gold standard analysed in the paper viability can be achieved only through the active and flexible use of monetary and fiscal policy

the international monetary system in the last and next 20 years the last two decades have seen far reaching changes in the structure of the international monetary system europe moved from the european monetary system to the euro china adopted a dollar peg and then moved to a basket band and crawl in 2005 emerging markets passed through a series of crises leading some to adopt regimes of greater exchange rate flexibility and others to rethink the pace of capital account liberalization interpreting these developments is no easy task some observers conclude that recent trends are confirmation of the bipolar view that intermediate exchange rate arrangements are disappearing while members of the fear of floating school conclude precisely the opposite we show that the two views can be reconciled if one distinguishes countries by their stage of economic and financial development among the advanced countries intermediate regimes have essentially disappeared this supports the bipolar view for the group of countries for which it was first developed within this subgroup the dominant movement has been toward hard pegs reflecting monetary unification in europe while emerging markets have also seen a decline in the prevalence of intermediate arrangements these regimes still account for more than a third of the relevant subsample here the majority of the evacuees have moved to floats rather than fixes reflecting the absence of emu like arrangements in other parts of the world among developing countries the prevalence of intermediate regimes has again declined but less dramatically where these regimes accounted for two thirds of the developing country subsample in 1990 they account for a bit more than half of that subsample today as with emerging markets the majority of those abandoning the middle have moved to floats rather than hard pegs the gradual nature of these trends does not suggest that intermediate regimes will disappear outside the advanced countries anytime soon barry eichengreen and raul razo garcia

a random walk through the gibson paradox evidence to support the gibson paradox is often given in the form of a simple correlation between the nominal interest rate and the log of price level or in the form of a simple linear regression between these two variables authors then show using standard procedures of statistical inference that the price level possesses a significant coefficient we argue that this class of evidence is spurious since the nominal interest rate and the price level both integrated variables do not form a cointegrated system

the market for street crime an economic analysis of victim offender interaction abstract this paper views the economic explanation of crime rates from a new perspective by explicitly deriving an economic model of the behavior of potential victims and considering the interaction of the behavior of potential victims with the behavior of offenders crime is produced through offenders supplying time in search of victims and victims demanding to expose themselves to the environment a model is set up in which the crime rate the probability of being a victim per unit of exposure time and the probability of finding a victim per unit of offenders search time are simultaneously determined the model leads us to distinguish the real crime rate the probability of being a victim per unit of exposure time from the nominal crime rate the number of crimes per capita the nominal crime rate can be inversely related to the real crime rate

the hotelling rule in non renewable resource economics a reassessment harold hotelling s 1931 contribution is known for providing a basic principle the hotelling rule to the economics of non renewable resources nearly ninety years later empirical tests conclude the rule lacks empirical validity requiring strong amendments to describe the long term aggregate behavior of its target object on the basis of hotelling s unpublished archival material this paper revisits the place given to the hotelling rule in non renewable resource economics our reconstruction shows that hotelling s 1931 paper has been misinterpreted from the outset the hotelling rule was not valid for mineral resources in contrast the consideration of two inherent geological constraints alongside exhaustibility offered the opportunity for an alternative basic framework capable to generate bell shaped and u shaped equilibrium trajectories for supplies and prices respectively inspired by this unknown aspect of hotelling s work brought to light by our archival investigation we sketch this alternative basic model enabling non renewable resource economics to circumvent the empirical shortfalls of the hotelling rule

a general equilibrium model of crime commission and prevention abstract the model developed in this paper features a general equilibrium specification of the relationships among criminals victims of crime and a law enforcement agency these relationships are employed to endogenously derive an explicit intuitively appealing technology of crime commission and prevention the solution to the present model is therefore obtained with a set of more elementary assumptions than the previous literature where arbitrary curvature assumptions are invoked

the optimal use of fines and imprisonment abstract this paper examines the use of fines and imprisonment to deter individuals from engaging in harmful activities these sanctions are analyzed separately as well as together first for identical risk neutral individuals and then for two groups of risk neutral individuals who differ by wealth when fines are used alone and individuals are identical the optimal fine and probability of apprehension are such that there is some underdeterrence if individuals differ by wealth then the optimal fine for the high wealth group exceeds the fine for the low wealth group when imprisonment is used alone and individuals are identical the optimal imprisonment term and probability may be such that there is either underdeterrence or overdeterrence if individuals differ by wealth the optimal imprisonment term for the high wealth group may be longer or shorter than the term for the low wealth group when fines and imprisonment are used together it is desirable to use the fine to its maximum feasible extent before possibly supplementing it with an imprisonment term the effects of risk aversion of these results are also discussed

an appropriate mechanism of fuels pricing for sustainable development abstract in this work the authors after a brief outlook concerning the markets of main energy commodities propose an alternative mechanism for fuel pricing consisted with a sustainable development technological change and technological pluralism costs and environmental issues are the benchmarks of the discussion developed the two mechanisms here proposed for fuel pricing try to encompass all these aspects stressing the scarcity concern not only under a merely based resource point of view but emphasizing also the technological variable as the first one to take into consideration in fact technology the mean by which resources are transformed into usable services energy forms is strictly linked to its limits above all productivity efficiency and environmental effects and cannot be any more considered only following the classical principles of the lowest cost of utilization without evaluating the other aspects related to the goals of sustainable development widely shared at the international level furthermore taking into consideration that some estimates of petroleum life expectancy calculate about 40 50 yr of consumption at current rates of demand a new mechanism to consider the right value of this resource and consequently all energy commodities is necessary without any pretension of exhaustion of the topic this work seems to be in line with this perspective trying to apply all these principles to price fuels

variable long term trends in mineral prices the ongoing tug of war between exploration depletion and technological change abstract this paper explores the use of low frequency band pass filters for describing long run trends in real mineral commodity prices this approach has the advantage of allowing long run trend rates to evolve gradually over time rather than assuming that they are constant perhaps with occasional structural breaks over time this is a flexible way of capturing the ongoing tug of war between exploration depletion and technological change over 100 mineral and commodities stretching back to the late 19th or early 20th century are considered the variety of lr trends is astonishing but very few increase monotonically contrary to the prediction of the basic hotelling model some decline monotonically as predicted by prebisch and singer some have the u shaped pattern predicted by pindyck 1978 heal 1981 and slade 1982 others have changed direction up to three times in the period since 1900 the tug of war continues with exhaustion nowhere in sight

international diversification through closed end country funds abstract the primary objectives of this paper are to assess the potential of closed end country funds cecfs as vehicles for achieving international diversification at home and to examine the effect of the closed end status of these funds on their investment characteristics the main findings are first cecfs exhibit significant exposure to the u s market factor and act more like u s securities than do their underlying assets second despite these characteristics cecfs retain significant exposure to their local home market factors and provide u s investors with substantial diversification benefits emerging market funds such as brazil mexico and taiwan receive large weights in optimal international portfolios comprised of cecfs implying that these funds can play a unique role in spanning the opportunity set for u s investors third performance evaluations indicate that our sample cecfs generally did not offer significant overseas alphas fourth fund value and net asset value are found to be co integrated for the majority of cecfs from north america and europe but not for those representing the asian emerging markets

short term interest rates as predictors of inflation on testing the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is constant in an innovative and provocative paper in this review eugene fama presents evidence which appears to be consistent with the joint hypothesis that the real rate of interest ignoring taxes is a constant and that the market for u s treasury bills is efficient in the sense of embodying rational expectations those findings are strikingly at variance with a long list of previous studies which seemed to support the view that the real rate of interest varies over time and can be related to economic variables such as real output monetary policy and so forth 2 the methodologies which lead to these contradictory conclusions are quite different previous studies had followed the lead of irving fisher by relating nominal interest rates to distributed lags on past rates of inflation 3 these distributed lags are generally interpreted as approximations to the market s expected rate of inflation and thus any remaining variation is attributed to variation in the real rate 4 fama s methodology on the other hand draws on the fact that the difference between the market interest rate and the subsequently observed rate of inflation the ex post real interest rate consists by definition of the ex ante real interest rate plus a pure forecasting error 5 the hypothesis of market efficiency implies that these forecasting errors must be serially random thus observing ex post real rates is equivalent to observing ex ante real rates with random measurement error these errors of course confound the problem of identifying variation in the ex ante real rate in this paper we will argue that the relative magnitude of these measurement errors is such that the tests carried out by fama were not powerful enough to reject the joint hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is a constant and expectations are rational more powerful tests which are presented in this paper using the same data do lead to rejection of that hypothesis of course rejection