critical evidence on comparative advantage north north trade in a multilateral world there are two principal theories of why countries trade comparative advantage and increasing returns to scale which is most important in practice the large volume of intra oecd trade is frequently cited as critical evidence on this question it is argued that comparative advantage unlike scale economies is incapable of accounting for the large volume of trade between seemingly similar economies this is a theoretical claim in this paper i show that it is possible to give an account of this trade based on comparative advantage the elements that may give rise to a large volume of north north trade are traced to identifiable features of technology and endowments

the emergence of iran in the world car industry an estimation of its export potential in the past 10 years iran has been emerging as a major car producer in the world however due to delays in economic reforms iranian car exports have not increased as much as production this paper presents a first estimation of the iranian export potential in the car industry based on new theoretical developments of the gravity equation an empirical bilateral trade model is proposed it includes sectoral variables car production import tariffs as well as other original variables such as expectations and hysteresis we then develop a dataset which includes the 40 major car exporting countries in the world 34 importing countries a 10 year time period as well as four car production groups the model is then estimated by using alternative panel data estimators such as those of hausman and taylor and dynamic estimators as well as transformed variables estimators export potential is finally calculated from the residuals of the model results show that iranian current car exports are about 100 times less than their fitted values this indicates that there is a significant export potential for iran especially toward india china russia as well as smaller neighbours turkey pakistan central asian countries as a result iran could become the major auto supplier in the middle east however this requires the completion and success of ongoing economic reforms

a note on merton s optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous time model in the paper optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous time model by r c merton j econ theory 3 1971 373 413 solutions obtained in cases when marginal utility at zero consumption is finite are not feasible while they do satisfy the hamilton jacobi bellman equations they do not represent appropriate value functions because the boundary behavior near zero wealth is not satisfactorily dealt with in this note we specify the boundary behavior and characterize optimal solutions journal of economic literature classification numbers 022 213

an empirical investigation of the market for comex gold futures options option pricing models that assume a constant interest rate may misprice futures options if the interest rate fluctuates significantly or if the price of the underlying asset is correlated with the interest rate the futures option pricing model of ramaswamy and sundaresan allows for a stochastic interest rate and correlation of the underlying asset s price with the interest rate using a data set of daily closing prices for comex gold futures options this paper tests the ramaswamy and sundaresan model against a constant interest rate model results indicate that the stochastic interest rate model is a superior predictor of market prices the past several years have witnessed many innovations in contingentclaims markets the introduction of gold futures options by the commodity exchange of new york comex in october 1982 has proven particularly successful volume and open interest have been large and growing the combination of futures and futures options trading makes comex the principal market for gold in north america the existence of gold futures options represents a dual challenge to conventional option pricing models first the variability of interest rates affects futures prices and thus the value of futures options second if the price of gold is correlated with inflation or the real interest rate it will also be correlated with the nominal interest rate option pricing models that assume that the nominal rate is constant will misprice gold futures options if these factors are significant this paper tests whether market prices for gold futures options are best described by an alternative model that allows the price of gold to covary with the rate of interest section i describes comex gold contracts and notes differences between futures option contracts and stock option contracts which have been studied more extensively section ii describes the data set of market prices that has been collected and tests for violations of boundaries by the prices section iii describes and tests the competing option valuation models section iv is a summary and conclusion

power politics and international trade r recent literature attributes the relative scarcity of open international markets to the prisoner s dilemma structure of state preferences with respect to trade we argue that the prisoner s dilemma representation does not reflect the most critical aspect of free trade agreements in an anarchic international system namely their security externalities we consider these external effects explicitly doing so leads us to two conclusions 1 free trade is more likely within rather than across political military alliances and 2 alliances are more likely to evolve into free trade coalitions if they are embedded in bipolar systems than in multipolar systems using data drawn from an 80 year period beginning in 1905 we test these hypotheses the results of the analysis make it clear that alliances do have a direct statistically significant and large impact on bilateral trade flows and that this relationship is stronger in bipolar rather than in multipolar systems in the early 1970s students of international relations began what would become a long and heated debate about the political correlates of open international markets recently however an important element of consensus has begun to emerge most contributors to this debate now seem to agree that the prisoner s dilemma structure of state preferences with respect to trade explains the relative dearth of open international markets here we argue that what has become the standard prisoner s dilemma representation neglects the most critical aspect of free trade agreements in the anarchic international system namely their security externalities we consider these external effects explicitly in order to do so we construct and analyze a simple game theoretic model the results of this analysis demonstrate that tariff games between allies differ systematically from those played between actual or potential adversaries these differences imply that free trade is more likely within rather than across political military alliances however our analysis also suggests that the evolutionary prospects of alliances vary those that are the products of bipolar systems are more likely to evolve into free trade coalitions than are their multipolar counterparts less credible exit threats and clearer responsibilities for alliance stability explain the advantage of a bipolar system we test this argument using data drawn from an 80 year period beginning in 1905 the empirical analysis supports our argument it demonstrates that alliances have a direct statistically significant and large effect upon bilateral trade moreover it shows that on average alliances have a much stronger effect on trade in a bipolar than in a multipolar world 2

fair demographic risk sharing in defined contribution pension systems in this article we formulate and solve the optimal design problem of a defined contribution public pension fund in a highly stylized but still rather general non stationary framework we adopt the viewpoint of a benevolent social planner who aims at treating in a fair manner the successive overlapping generations participating to such a long term mandatory system using the approach of el karoui and jeanblanc 1998 for the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem with random income in a complete market we exhibit a solution to our intertemporal stochastic control problem where each generation receives a fair lumpsum retirement benefit it is proportional to the contributions she has paid during her active worklife and follows a fixed common rule although her pension value itself may depend on variables only observable at her retirement time we next relax the assumption that the collective pension system is mandatory and investigate the performance of individual investment plans in the market comparing the outcomes of both alternatives we derive a condition under which the collective fund can be expected to overperform the individual plan in the special case of a stationary economy such a possibility has been pointed out by gollier 2008 in fact this effect results from the possibility for the collective fund to borrow today against contributions of future generations which allows to implement riskier strategies and may improve its performance

towards a new trade policy between the usa and middle east countries estimating trade resistance and export potential at the time of the conclusion of free trade areas ftas between the usa and middle east and north african mena countries there is a lack of literature concerning the measurement of the current us export position with regards to these countries and the us export potential in this area from recent developments of gravity models this paper derives an estimable equation which includes various trade resistance variables notably border effects multilateral resistance as well as specific bilateral effects the model is tested in order to scrutinise the impact of these variables on us exports to mena countries as well as the us export potential in this area to that end a selection of panel data specifications is proposed mainly hausman and taylor models as well as arellano and bond dynamic models results unambiguously indicate that as compared to the other oecd countries the usa suffers from a substantial trade integration deficit with mena countries this is reflected by the strongly negative values of the us mena bilateral fixed effects as well as the high bilateral border effects in addition the estimated actual potential us export ratio to these countries is only 0 76 therefore implementing an fta between the usa and mena countries may allow the former to progressively improve its export position in this area this would also help mena countries diversify their supplying sources

on the efficiency of the gold options market standardized gold options were introduced on the european options exchange in 1981 in the paper we investigate the efficiency of its pricing procedures specifically the put call parity conditions are verified virtually no evidence of profitable riskless arbitrage opportunities could be found a riskless hedging strategy using the black scholes call option pricing model was used to test market efficiency and to check for consistent discrepancies between model and market prices again no evidence of market inefficiency could be found however there are indications that the black scholes model is not appropriate to price out of the money gold options an alternative option pricing model is studied which may remedy this problem

optimal portfolio choice for long horizon investors with nontradable labor income this paper examines how risky labor income and retirement affect optimal portfolio choice with idiosyncratic labor income risk the optimal allocation to stocks is unambiguously larger for employed investors than for retired investors consistent with the typical recommendations of investment advisors increasing idiosyncratic labor income risk raises investors willingness to save and reduces their stock portfolio allocation towards the level of retired investors positive correlation between labor income and stock returns has a further negative effect and can actually reduce stockholdings below the level of retired investors financial advisors typically recommend that their customers invest more in stocks than in safe assets when they are working and to shift their investments towards safe assets when they retire jagannathan and kocherlakota 1996 malkiel 1996 by contrast the standard academic models of portfolio choice merton 1969 1971 samuelson 1969 show that retirement is irrelevant for portfolio decisions if investment opportunities are constant and human capital is tradable in this case the fraction of wealth optimally invested in risky assets should be constant over the lifetime of an individual recent research building on the pioneering work by merton 1971 shows that time varying investment opportunities result in portfolio rules with an intertemporal hedging component whose magnitude depends on the investment horizon of the investor kim and omberg 1996 balduzzi and lynch 1997 brennan schwartz and lagnado 1997 brandt 1999 campbell and viceira 1999 2001 barberis 2000 with time variation in investment opportunities retirement and death play an instrumental role as events that exogenously fix the individual s investment horizon more importantly retirement also marks the time at which individuals stop working and thereafter must live off their lifetime savings and possibly transfers from this perspective retirement matters for portfolio choice

does foreign policy determine foreign trade cointegration analysis of exports from selected countries to the middle east the paper analyses the relations between foreign policy and export performance the paper deals with exports of selected european countries and the usa to middle eastern countries including israel cointegration analysis is used to identify common stochastic trends in export series a long term relationship implies no significant influence of foreign policy differences on trade performance according to the johansen tests applied to bivariate and multivariate models german austrian dutch and eu exports to israel are cointegrated with the us exports while swiss exports are never cointegrated with the exports of these countries this result confirms the importance of foreign policy in trade performance

retirement saving with contribution payments and labor income as a benchmark for investments abstract in this paper we study the retirement saving problem from the point of view of a plan sponsor who makes contribution payments for the future retirement of an employee the plan sponsor considers the employee s labor income as investment benchmark in order to ensure the continuation of consumption habits after retirement we demonstrate that the demand for risky assets increases at low wealth levels due to the contribution payments we quantify the demand for hedging against changes in wage growth and find that it is relatively small we show that downside risk measures increase risk taking at both low and high levels of wealth

the political determinants of international trade the major powers 1907 1990 we test three arguments about the effect of international politics on trade flows the first argument states that trade flows are greater between states with similar interests than those with dissimilar interests the second that trade flows are greater in democratic dyads than nondemocratic dyads and the third that trade flows are greater between allies we examine trade flows between the major powers from 1907 to 1990 this period provides variation on all three independent variables of interest and allows us to separate the three arguments empirically we estimate a gravity model of trade with the above political variables added our results demonstrate that joint democracy and common interests increase trade in a dyad but alliances generally do not even when controlling for polarity of the system

the effect of marital endowments on domestic violence in india abstract numerous studies have documented a relationship between income and wealth of a woman and domestic violence one such factor that could potentially impact domestic violence is the gold endowment a woman receives at the time of marriage india presents a unique setting in which to test this relationship as despite being unlawful both dowry practices and domestic violence continue to prevail as actual marital endowments may endogenously affect spousal match quality i use the deviation of the price of gold at the time of marriage from its long term trend as a source of exogenous variation to proxy for initial marital endowment and examine its effect on domestic violence results show a positive and significant effect of an unusually high price of gold at the time of marriage on domestic violence

optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process abstract we consider a consumption portfolio problem in continuous time under uncertainty a martingale technique is employed to characterize optimal consumption portfolio policies when there exist nonnegativity constraints on consumption and on final wealth we also provide a way to compute and verify optimal policies our verification theorem for optimal policies involves a linear partial differential equation unlike the nonlinear partial differential equation of dynamic programming the relationship between our approach and dynamic programming is discussed we demonstrate our technique by explicitly computing optimal policies in a series of examples in particular we solve the optimal consumption portfolio problem for hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility functions when the asset prices follow a geometric brownian motion the optimal policies in this case are no longer linear when nonnegativity constraints on consumption and on final wealth are included by these examples one can see that our approach is much easier than the dynamic programming approach

a hybrid simulation optimisation scenario model for asset liability management abstract in this paper we desciibe a decision support model to sustain management of pension funds in the strategic planning of the available asset and liability policy instruments a main characteristic of the approach is that the relevant risk drivers are modelled by scenarios rather than by probability distributions we will describe the scenario generation methodology and how the scenarios are used by pension fund managers to simulate and improve asset liability strategies until a strategy is identified which is agreed upon by all who carry responsibility for the pension fund and her sponsors and trustees next we will describe how this process of managerial learning can be improved by a hybrid simulation optimisation method which applies concepts from the field of non linear global optimisation to determine the asset allocations which determine efficient frontiers of contribution rates and downside insolvency risks we will conclude by showing that the application of the developed models to a particular pension fund leads to the annulment of the infeasibility of the current asset liability policy on the one hand and to a reduction of the expected yearly contributions of us 100 million on the other

scenario generation and stochastic programming models for asset liability management in this paper we develop and test scenario generation methods for asset liability management models we propose a multi stage stochastic programming model for a dutch pension fund both randomly sampled event trees and event trees fitting the mean and the covariance of the return distribution are used for generating the coefficients of the stochastic program in order to investigate the performance of the model and the scenario generation procedures we conduct rolling horizon simulations the average cost and the risk of the stochastic programming policy are compared to the results of a simple fixed mix model we compare the average switching behavior of the optimal investment policies our results show that the performance of the multi stage stochastic program could be improved drastically by choosing an appropriate scenario generation method

does trade still follow the flag t he economic ties between any two nations are frequently affected by a warming or cooling of bilateral diplomatic relations but there is little to be found in modern economics or political science that helps us understand the connections between international politics and commerce the notion that international economics could be studied in isolation from its political underpinnings or consequences would have been quite alien to mercantilist thinkers in the eighteenth century or to the critics or advocates of imperialism in the nineteenth that economics and politics were inextricably intertwined was taken as a matter of course indeed trade follows the flag was central to these people s understanding of world politics and international economics intellectual trends over the past century radically changed this worldview the ascendancy of liberalism in economic thought brought with it a compartmentalization of disciplines that may now be eroding but we are left with theories of international politics and economics that are very weakly bridged the objective of this study is to map one of the many connections between international politics and commercial ties specifically i seek to identify and measure the effect of changes in state to state diplomatic relations on trade flows between those nations theoretical underpinnings of my effort are in the tradition of public choice political economy frey 1984 because i treat importers as rational utility maximizers and their behavior as determined by preferences pursued within a context of specified constraints the model i put forward is wholly consistent with contemporary neoclassical trade theory but i extend the economists notion of welfare and contend that importers take account not only of the price and quantity of goods and services but of the place of origin of these products and the political relationship between the importing and the exporting nation they do so essentially for traditional security reasons that is importers are motivated to manage their trade relations in ways that minimize risks of disruption in supply or the possibility of hurting friends or

hedging in incomplete markets with hara utility in the context of merton s original problem of optimal consumption and portfolio choice in continuous time this paper solves an extension in which the investor is endowed with a stochastic income that cannot be replicated by trading the available securities the problem is treated by demonstrating using analytic and in particular viscosity solutions techniques that the value function of the stochastic control problem is a smooth solution of the associated hamilton jacobi bellman hjb equation the optimal policy is shown to exist and given in a feedback form from the optimality conditions in the hjb equation at zero wealth a fixed fraction of income is consumed for large wealth the original merton policy is approached we also give a sufficient condition for wealth under the optimal policy to remain strictly positive

determinants of the physical demand for gold evidence from panel data although the role of gold in the world economy has declined since the gold standard was abandoned it remains important as a central bank reserve a hedge against risks a barometer of geopolitical uncertainty and an input for jewellery while portfolio demand for gold has been well studied determinants of physical demand are less understood certain emerging market countries such as china and india import substantial amounts of gold with several factors that may contribute low financial development need for precautionary savings and or strong cultural valuation of gold itself this article uses panel data on gold imports of 21 countries to examine determinants of physical demand we find that determinants of physical demand differ from those of portfolio demand and that they differ between the developed and developing worlds

explaining the volume of north south trade much of the recent literature on scale economies has been motivated by the large volume of trade among the industrialized countries relative to north south trade this paper presents theoretical and empirical analyses of two alternative hypotheses one based on differences in north versus south gnp and one based on higher protection levels in the south counter factual experiments using a numerical general equilibrium model support the hypotheses that north south trade is relatively small because the south is poor and highly protected copyright 1990 by royal economic society

stochastic pension funding when the benefit and the risky asset follow jump diffusion processes we study the asset allocation of defined benefit pension plans of the type designed and sponsored by firms with the aim of providing a lifetime pension to the employees at the age of retirement benefits are stochastic combining poisson jumps with brownian uncertainty the sponsor dynamically forms portfolios where the risky asset is also subjected to poisson jumps and brownian uncertainty possibly correlated with the evolution of benefits the objective is to assure future benefits while controlling the contribution made to the fund reserves the problem is solved analytically using dynamic programming techniques

consumption and portfolio policies with incomplete markets and short sale constraints the infinite dimensional case abstract we employ a martingale approach to study a dynamic consumption portfolio problem in continuous time with incomplete markets and short sale constraints we introduce a notion of minimax local martingale and transform the dynamic problem into a static problem of maximizing expected utility over the consumption bundles that satisfy a single budget constraint formed using that measure we establish the existence of and characterize the minimax local measure provide sufficient conditions for the dynamic consumption portfolio problem to have a solution and relate the optimal policies to the solution of quasi linear partial differential equation

the price of gold and the exchange rate abstract this paper examines the theoretical relationship between the major exchange rates and the prices of internationally traded commodities in the empirical section the case of gold is analyzed using forecast error data among other things it is found that since the dissolution of the bretton woods international monetary system floating exchange rates among the major currencies have been a major source of price instability in the world gold market and as the world gold market is dominated by the european currency bloc appreciations or depreciations of european currencies have strong effects on the price of gold in other currencies