rainfall financial development and remittances evidence from sub saharan africa we use annual variations in rainfall to examine the effects that exogenous transitory income shocks have on remittances in a panel of 41 sub saharan african countries during the period 1970 2007 our main finding is that on average rainfall shocks have an insignificant contemporaneous effect on remittances however the marginal effect is significantly decreasing in the share of domestic credit to gdp so much so that at high levels of credit to gdp rainfall shocks have a significant negative effect on remittances while at low levels of credit to gdp the effect of rainfall on remittances is significantly positive

malthus living in a slum urban concentration infrastructure and economic growth abstract the link between urban concentration primacy and economic growth at country level is not straightforward as there are benefits as well as costs associated with urban primacy recent empirical evidence suggests a differential negative effect of concentration in sub saharan africa compared to the rest of the world this paper revisits the literature on urban concentration and economic growth to shed some light on these recent results the main contribution of the paper is to show how differentiated effects of urban primacy on economic growth can be accounted for by considering a role for the quality of the urban environment in terms of urban infrastructure the role of urban infrastructure is found to be robust to a long list of controls different specifications different estimation techniques and potential bias from simultaneity and measurement error

rain and the democratic window of opportunity according to the economic approach to political transitions negative transitory economic shocks can give rise to a window of opportunity for democratic change we examine this hypothesis using yearly rainfall variation over the 1980 2004 period in 41 sub saharan african countries we find that a 25 drop in rainfall increases the probability of a transition to democracy during the following two years by around 3 percentage points a 5 fall in income due to low rainfall raises the probability of democratization by around 7 percentage points we also find that rainfall does not affect transitions from democracy to autocracy

toward a public choice theory of monopoly regulation its many dimensions from the perspective of market economics this new thrust was consolidated in 1976 by s peltzman who developed a formal market model in which regulations were viewed as commodities brokered via political markets in response to bids and counter bids by those who stood to gain or to lose from specific regulation outcomes the subsequent contribution by becker 1983 added insights and institutional flesh to the stigler peltzman embryo confirming regulation as an integral component of mainstream market economics an important implication of such contributions especially those from the chicago perspective is that regulation for the most part confirms resource efficiency within market process that political markets in the absence of entry barriers are just as effective as are competitive commodity markets in achieving economic efficiency defined within a comparative institutions framework nowhere is this complacency more apparent than in the conclusion drawn by becker 1983 from a detailed formal analysis of competition among pressure groups for political influence

weather variations and international trade in this paper i investigate the effect of weather variations in the exporter and importer countries separately as well as a the difference between weather variations in both countries on bilateral trade flows the analysis is done at the country sectoral and product levels worldwide and over the 1992 2014 period i find a negative effect of temperature variations in the exporter country and in the difference between exporter and importer countries on bilateral trade at the country level at the product level both negative and positive effects arise but the negative effect of temperature dominates the temperature effects are on the agricultural and manufacturing sectors especially in the textile and metals sectors i show that possible channels are the impact of temperature on output and labour productivity the negative impacts are larger in exporter countries that are closer to the equator that have lower quality of institutions and that export to more remote countries if countries are able to adapt to climate change the long term effects of temperature variations should be lower than the contemporaneous effect nevertheless my results on the long term effects analysis do not support this hypothesis suggesting no or very low adaptation moreover the negative effect of temperature is persistent and cumulative through several years after the temperature shock concerning precipitation variation effects they are found mainly at the product level with the positive effect dominating for the affected products

malaria suitability urbanization and persistence evidence from china over more than 2000 years abstract we show that the climatic potential for plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission constituted a locational fundamental that influenced the spatial distribution of urbanization since the early start of the southward expansion of the han chinese around 200 bce this effect is still detectable in today s distribution of urbanization and economic activity even though the risk of malaria falciparum has been successfully eliminated we do not find any indication of convergence between high and low malaria potential regions after eradication our identification strategy relies on a climate based measure of plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission intensity which is fitted to experimental data on mosquito and parasite development from laboratory studies this measure is exogenous with respect to human population densities

the shocking origins of political transitions evidence from earthquakes do earthquakes trigger political transitions using a rich panel dataset of 160 countries observed over 1950 2007 we find that earthquake shocks measured in terms of the effect of ground motion amplitude on death toll have two contradicting effects on political change on the one hand earthquakes drive transitions into democracy due to an affective shock which we interpret to be the reaction of citizens by which they hold the incumbent government responsible for earthquake damages on the other hand earthquakes indirectly hasten transitions into a less democratic regime because they increase the income level contemporaneously possibly due to short term emergency response and recovery expenditures and thus raising the opportunity cost of contesting the incumbent government overall we show that while not leading to a full fledged regime transition earthquake shocks open a new democratic window of opportunity but this window is narrowed by improved economic conditions

evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process urbanization and economic development go hand in hand as a country moves from a rural agricultural base to an urban industrial base this paper argues that urbanization per se occurs in response to the basic sector shift out of agriculture and government policies such as price controls and trade protection of industry affect the process only indirectly through their effect on sector composition however urban concentration the extent to which a country s urban resources are concentrated in one or two large cities as opposed to more evenly spread is much more directly affected by policies and politics the paper finds specifically that investments in inter regional infrastructure facilitates urban deconcentration away from primate to hinterland cities as does increasing democratization or increasing fiscal decentralization the findings move beyond establishing basic correlations in the data to trying to quantify causal effects in a panel framework with instrumental variables estimation

understanding local co2 emissions reduction targets abstract local commitments on climate change are often spread by international associations and city networks the most recent initiative at the european level was the signing of the covenant of mayors the covenant of mayors provides information about several indicators related to the emissions reduction plans of those cities that have signed the covenant a cross sectional regression analysis is made between the planned emissions reductions and the basic indicators analysed results show that the predicted reductions are greater in more contaminated cities and with a greater energy use per capita however the effort of the contaminated cities is less than proportional energy efficiency is focused on the containment of electrical and h c consumption the planned reductions are greater in those cities which have a greater percentage of energy consumption in the transport sector no significant differences are seen between the emissions reductions planned by the northern and southern cities energy consumption per capita is smaller in the large cities with emissions also tending to be more reduced which suggests that urbanization can generate agglomeration benefits that are environmentally effective the greater consumption of renewables is seen in small municipalities

economic growth effects of alternative climate change impact channels in economic modeling despite increasing empirical evidence of strong links between climate and economic growth there is no established model to describe the dynamics of how different types of climate shocks affect growth patterns here we present the first comprehensive comparative analysis of the long term dynamics of one time temporary climate shocks on production factors and factor productivity respectively in a ramsey type growth model damages acting directly on production factors allow us to study dynamic effects on factor allocation savings and economic growth we find that the persistence of impacts on economic activity is smallest for climate shocks directly impacting output and successively increases for direct damages on capital loss of labor and productivity shocks related to different responses in savings rates and factor specific growth recurring shocks lead to large welfare effects and long term growth effects directly linked to the persistence of individual shocks endogenous savings and shock anticipation both have adaptive effects but do not eliminate differences between impact channels or significantly lower the dissipation time accounting for endogenous growth mechanisms increases the effects we also find strong effects on income shares important for distributional implications this work fosters conceptual understanding of impact dynamics in growth models opening options for links to empirics

weather shocks and agricultural commercialization in colonial tropical africa did cash crops alleviate social distress a rapidly growing body of research examines the ways in which climatic variability influences economic and societal outcomes this study investigates how weather shocks triggered social distress in british colonial africa further it intervenes in a long standing and unsettled debate concerning the effects of agricultural commercialization on the abilities of rural communities to cope with exogenous shocks we collect qualitative evidence from annual administrative records to explore the mechanisms linking weather extremes to harvest failures and social distress we also conduct econometric testing on a novel panel dataset of 143 administrative districts across west south central and east africa in the interwar era 1920 39 our findings are twofold first we find robust evidence that rainfall anomalies both drought and excessive precipitation are associated with spikes in imprisonment our proxy for social distress we argue that the key causal pathway is the loss of agricultural income which results in higher imprisonment for theft unrest debt and tax default second we find that the impact of weather shocks on distress is partially mitigated by the cultivation of export crops our findings suggest that even in the british colonial context smallholder export crop cultivation led to higher private incomes as well as greater public investment our findings speak to a topic of considerable urgency today as the process of global climate change accelerates generating more severe and unpredictable climatic extremes an increased understanding and identification of adaptive and mitigating factors would assist in targeting policy interventions and designing adaptive institutions to support vulnerable rural societies

the impact of global warming on agriculture a ricardian analysis reply we measure the economic impact of climate on land prices using cross sectional data on climate farmland prices and other economic and geophysical data for almost 3 000 counties in the united states we find that higher temperatures in all seasons except autumn reduce average farm values while more precipitation outside of autumn increases farm values applying the model to a global warming scenario shows a significantly lower estimated impact of global warming on u s agriculture than the traditional production function approach and in one case suggests that even without co sub 2 fertilization global warming may have economic benefits for agriculture 16 refs 5 figs 5 tabs

climate change hydro dependency and the african dam boom summary we examine africa s increasing reliance on hydropower in light of climate change induced variations in rainfall and the potential power outages that may result we use a continent wide riverflow model and ippc climate change scenarios and show that current plans for african dam building are fairly well matched with river flow predictions so that fears that international donors and national governments are making a series of expensive and environmentally damaging investments may be overstated however predictions of an increase in extreme events and reduced rainfall for certain countries mean there are still viability concerns for certain planned hydropower investments

an instrumental variables approach to estimating tax revenue elasticities evidence from sub saharan africa this paper exploits the significant response of real gdp growth of sub saharan african countries to exogenous international commodity price and rainfall shocks to construct instrumental variables estimates of the tax revenue elasticity iv estimates yield that a 1 increase in gdp increases tax revenues by up to 2 5

trade openness and economic growth panel data evidence from sub saharan africa this paper uses an instrumental variables approach to estimate the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in sub saharan africa instrumental variables estimates show that economic growth has a significant negative contemporaneous effect on trade openness while trade openness has a significant positive effect on economic growth a 1 percentage point increase in the ratio of trade over gdp is associated with a short run increase in growth of approximately 0 5 in a given year the cumulative long run effect on the level of gdp per capita is larger reaching about 2

does rainfall matter for economic growth evidence from global sub national data 1990 2014 much micro econometric evidence suggests that precipitation has wide ranging impacts on vital economic indicators such as agricultural yields human capital and even conflict and yet paradoxically most macro econometric evidence especially in the climate economy literature finds that precipitation has no robust and significant impact on various measures of aggregate economic output this paper argues that spatial aggregation of weather at the country level explains this result the paper uses annual subnational gross domestic product data to show a concave relationship between precipitation and local gross domestic product growth between 1990 and 2014 it then demonstrates that when the data are aggregated at larger spatial scales the impact decreases and eventually vanishes the impact of precipitation on aggregate economic activity is predominantly felt in developing countries it is insignificant in developed countries agriculture is found to be the dominant pathway the results have significant consequences for measuring the economic impacts of climate change

temperature shocks and welfare costs abstract this paper examines the welfare implications of rising temperatures using a standard var we empirically show that a temperature shock has a sizable negative and statistically significant impact on tfp output and labor productivity we rationalize these findings within a production economy featuring long run temperature risk in the model macro aggregates drop in response to a temperature shock consistent with the novel evidence in the data such adverse effects are long lasting over a 50 year horizon a one standard deviation temperature shock lowers both cumulative output and labor productivity growth by 1 4 percentage points based on the model we also show that temperature risk is associated with non negligible welfare costs which amount to 18 4 of the agent s lifetime utility and grow exponentially with the size of the impact of temperature on tfp finally we show that faster adaptation to temperature shocks results in lower welfare costs these welfare benefits become substantially higher in the presence of permanent improvements in the speed of adaptation

economic growth size of the agricultural sector and urbanization in africa this paper uses variations in international commodity prices and rainfall to construct instrumental variables estimates of the within country effect that changes in the size of the agricultural sector and gdp per capita growth have on the urbanization rate for a panel of 41 african countries during the period 1960 2007 the paper s three main findings are that i decreases in the share of agricultural value added lead to a significant increase in the urbanization rate ii conditional on changes in the share of agricultural value added gdp per capita growth does not significantly affect the urbanization rate iii increases in the urbanization rate had a significant negative average effect on gdp per capita growth

wealth weather risk and the composition and profitability of agricultural investments despite the growing evidence that farmers in low income environments are risk averse there has been little empirical evidence on the importance of risk in shaping the actual allocation of production resources among farmers differentiated by wealth the authors use panel data on investments in rural india to examine how the composition of productive and nonproductive asset holdings varies across farmers with different levels of total wealth and across farmers facing different degrees of weather risk income variability is a prominent feature of the experience of rural agents in low income countries the authors report evidence based on measures of rainfall variability that the agricultural investment portfolio behavior of farmers in such settings reflects risk aversion due evidently to limitations on consumption soothing mechanisms such as crop insurance or credit markets the authors results suggest that uninsured weather risk is a significant cause of lower efficiency and lower average incomes a one standard deviation decrease in weather risk measured by the standard deviation of the timing of the rainy season would raise average profits by up to 35 percent among farmers in the lowest wealth quartile moreover rainfall variability induces a more unequal distribution of average incomes for a given distribution of wealth wealthier farmers are willing to absorb significant risk without giving up profits to reduce production risk smaller farmers have to invest their limited wealth in ways that reduce their exposure to risk at the cost of lower profit rates the authors found that at high levels of rainfall variability differences in rates of profit per unit of agricultural assets were similar across classes of wealth but over the sample range of rainfall variability these rates of profit were always higher for the poorer farmers than for the wealthier ones suggesting that the disadvantages of small farmers in risk diffusion are more than offset by their labor cost advantage

what do we learn from the weather the new climate economy literature a rapidly growing body of research applies panel methods to examine how temperature precipitation and windstorms influence economic outcomes these studies focus on changes in weather realizations over time within a given spatial area and demonstrate impacts on agricultural output industrial output labor productivity energy demand health conflict and economic growth among other outcomes by harnessing exogenous variation over time within a given spatial unit these studies help credibly identify i the breadth of channels linking weather and the economy ii heterogeneous treatment effects across different types of locations and iii nonlinear effects of weather variables this paper reviews the new literature with two purposes first we summarize recent work providing a guide to its methodologies datasets and findings second we consider applications of the new literature including insights for the damage function within models that seek to assess the potential economic effects of future climate change jel c51 d72 o13 q51 q54

troublesome leisure travel the contradictions of three sustainable transport policies sustainable passenger transport policies are most often directed towards everyday travel and ignore the large and expanding amount of leisure travel the paper examines whether policies aimed at re

exogenous volatility and the size of government in developing countries this paper presents instrumental variables estimates of the effects of gdp per capita volatility on the size of government we show that for a panel of 157 countries spanning more than half a century rainfall volatility has a significant positive effect on gdp per capita volatility in countries with above median temperatures in these countries rainfall volatility has also a significant positive reduced form effect on the gdp share of government there is no significant reduced form effect in the sample of countries with below median temperatures where rainfall volatility has no significant effect on gdp per capita volatility using rainfall volatility as an instrumental variable in the sample of countries with above median temperatures yields that greater gdp per capita volatility leads to a significantly higher gdp share of government

climatic factors as determinants of international migration we examine environmental change as a potential determinant of international migration we distinguish between unexpected short run factors captured by natural disasters as well as long run climate change and climate variability captured by deviations and volatilities of temperatures and rainfall from and around their long run averages starting from a simple neo classical model we use a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows for the period 1960 2000 that allows us to control for numerous time varying and time invariant factors we find no direct impact of climatic change on international migration across our entire sample these results are robust when conditioning on characteristics of origin countries as well as when further considering migrants returning home and the potential endogeneity of our network variable in contrast there is evidence of indirect effects of environmental factors going through wages we further find strong evidence that natural disasters beget greater flows of migrants to urban environs

the effect of ambient temperature shocks during conception and early pregnancy on later life outcomes abstract a large body of research has recently shown that early life or in utero shocks especially climatic shocks may affect long run human capital outcomes most of these effects are assumed to be biological including poor nutrition during critical windows of fetal development or through increased maternal stress however in addition to these biological effects climatic conditions at the time of conception may also cause changes in parental behavior not only affecting the mix of parents who conceive but also the characteristics of the children once born this paper explores whether increases in ambient temperature at the time of conception while in utero or after birth affect educational and health outcomes as adults using census and demographic and health survey data from sub saharan africa we show that individuals conceived during high temperatures have higher educational attainment and literacy in addition we find evidence of temperature effects at other times in utero especially during the first trimester we then explore the biological and behavioral mechanisms through which this effect may occur including heat induced changes in sexual behavior differences in parental characteristics and intensified fetal selection we conclude that fetal selection is the most likely mechanism driving our result

trends in rainfall and economic growth in africa a neglected cause of the african growth tragedy abstract we examine the role of rainfall trends in poor growth performance of sub saharan african nations relative to other developing countries using a new cross country panel climatic data set in an empirical economic growth framework our results show that rainfall has been a significant determinant of poor economic growth for african nations but not for other countries depending on the benchmark measure of potential rainfall we estimate that the direct impact under the scenario of no decline in rainfall would have resulted in a reduction of between around 15 and 40 of today s gap in african gdp per capita relative to the rest of the developing world

trade institution quality and income inequality summary we examine the effect of trade on income inequality in small developing countries we use two well accepted trade cost variables for identification one is based on baltic dry index and another is commodities price index our main finding is that trade leads to a significant reduction increase in income inequality in autocracies democracies to explain such different effects we provide supporting evidence that autocracies export more primary commodities and may follow the stolper samuelson theorem in ho framework while democracies active in manufacturing outsourcing may follow feenstra and hanson 1996 task model

government spending cyclicality evidence from transitory and persistent shocks in developing countries we revisit the debate of whether government spending is procyclical in developing countries our main contribution is to argue that beyond exogeneity of the income shock an empirical analysis of government spending cyclicality must be carefully tailored to the shock s persistence we first illustrate this point in a simple intertemporal model we then use instrumental variables estimation to characterize the response of government expenditures to exogenous shocks with different degrees of persistence our estimation strategy exploits that i year to year variations in rainfall have a significant positive contemporaneous effect on sub saharan african countries real gdp but this effect is transitory ii year to year variations in the gdp of sub saharan african countries oecd trading partners have a significant positive contemporaneous effect on sub saharan african countries real gdp and this effect is persistent using rainfall as an instrument for sub saharan african countries gdp yields a government consumption expenditures elasticity response of around 0 4 standard error 0 3 when the instrument is the gdp of sub saharan african countries oecd trading partners the estimated government consumption expenditures elasticity response is around 1 1 standard error 0 2 the elasticity response of government consumption expenditures to persistent income shocks is thus significantly higher relative to transitory shocks

cross country disparity in agricultural productivity quantifying the role of modern seed adoption inequality of agricultural labour productivity across the developing world has increased substantially over the past 40 years this article asks to what extent did the diffusion of green revolution seed varieties contribute to increasing agricultural labour productivity disparity across the developing countries we find that 22 per cent of cross country variation in agricultural labour productivity can be attributed to the diffusion of high yielding seed varieties across countries and that the impact of such diffusion differed significantly across regions we discuss the implications of these findings for policy directed at increasing agricultural labour productivity in the developing world

explaining african economic performance africa has had slow growth and a massive exodus of capital in many respects it has been the most capital hostile region we review and interpret the aggregate level and microeconomic literatures to identify the key explanations for this performance there is a reasonable correspondence of the two sets of evidence pointing to four factors as being important these are a lack of openness to international trade a high risk environment a low level of social capital and poor infrastructure these problems are to a substantial extent attributable to government behaviour and the paper includes a review of the political economy literature which addresses that behaviour

why has africa grown slowly we distinguish between policy and destiny explanations of africa s slow growth during the past three decades policies were poor high export taxation and inefficient public service delivery and destiny was adverse landlocked tropical locations and terms of trade deterioration during the 1990s africa s economic policies improved although with considerable variation both between countries and between policies trade and exchange rate policies improved much more than service delivery thus the differing explanations of past slow growth imply different predictions for growth in the coming decade we argue that poor public economic services are likely to be the binding constraint

climate change tourist air travel and radical emissions reduction tourism has been critiqued as an environmentally destructive industry on account of the greenhouse gas emissions associated with tourist mobility from a policy perspective current and projected growth in aviation is fundamentally incompatible with radical emissions reduction and decarbonisation of the global energy system efforts to address the aviation climate change policy clash must be informed by an understanding of public sentiments towards climate change air travel and carbon mitigation this article examines how consumers across four western nations are responding to the environmental excesses of contemporary air travel consumption it focuses on individual receptiveness to voluntarily measures aimed at changing flying behaviours industry responses and degrees of government regulation its theoretical context harnesses lessons from public health to inform a discussion of bottom up social marketing nudge and top down government regulation approaches to the urgent challenge of radical air travel emissions reduction the findings of its comparative empirical analysis are presented based upon 68 in depth interviews conducted in norway the united kingdom germany and australia we highlight contrasts in how consumers are beginning to internalise and process the environmental excesses of contemporary air travel consumption whereas voluntary measures such as carbon off setting are viewed with widespread scepticism divergence was found across the four study contexts in willingness to accept regulatory measures norwegians were far more willing to accommodate strong government intervention through taxation whereas participants from the other three nations favoured softer strategies that are not perceived as restricting individual freedoms to travel we conclude that voluntary approaches will be insufficient alone and that behavioural change in public flying behaviour requires diverse policy measures these must be informed by insights into the public s willingness to palate stronger mitigation interventions which varies within and between societies