monetary policy asset prices and liquidity in over the counter markets we develop a model where agents can allocate their wealth between a liquid asset which can be used to purchase consumption goods and an illiquid asset which represents a better store of value should a consumption opportunity arise agents may visit a frictional over the counter secondary asset market where they can exchange illiquid for liquid assets we characterize how monetary policy affects both the issue price and the secondary market price of the asset we also show that in contrast to conventional wisdom search and bargaining frictions in the secondary asset market can improve welfare if inflation is low

dynamic adverse selection a theory of illiquidity fire sales and flight to quality we develop a dynamic equilibrium model of asset markets with adverse selection there exists a unique equilibrium in which better quality assets trade at higher prices but with a lower price dividend ratio in less liquid markets sellers of high quality assets signal quality by accepting a lower trading probability we show how the distribution of sellers private information affects an asset s price and liquidity how a change in that distribution can cause a re sale and a ight to quality and how asset purchase and subsidy programs may raise prices and liquidity and reverse the ight to quality jel d82 g12 this paper develops a dynamic equilibrium model of asset markets with adverse selection the owners of heterogeneous assets are privately informed about the quality of their assets sellers set prices for their assets recognizing that sales may be rationed at high prices buyers set prices recognizing that the quality of available assets may depend on the price selected in equilibrium sellers of high quality assets are willing to set a high price despite the low sale probability because the continuation value from failing to sell a high quality asset is high conversely sellers of low quality assets opt for a low price buyers are indifferent between paying a low price for a low quality asset and a high price for a high quality asset we prove these results in a deliberately stylized dynamic general equilibrium framework assets are perfectly durable and pay a constant dividend each period some amount of a perfectly perishable consumption good better quality assets pay a higher dividend but only the asset s current owner observes the dividend this is the source of private information and the root of the adverse selection problem as in akerlof 1970 the only permissible trades are between the consumption good and the asset individuals are risk neutral and have a discount factor that changes over time independently across individuals creating gains from trade finally discount factors are observable which ensures that patient individuals never sell assets since there are no gains from trade we believe this framework is useful for capturing

financial frictions the housing market and unemployment abstract we develop a two sector search matching model of the labor market with imperfect mobility of workers augmented to incorporate a housing market and a frictional goods market homeowners use home equity as collateral to finance idiosyncratic consumption opportunities a financial innovation that raises the acceptability of homes as collateral raises house prices and reduces unemployment it also triggers a reallocation of workers with the direction of the change depending on firms market power in the goods market a calibrated version of the model under adaptive learning can account for house prices sectoral labor flows and unemployment rate changes over 1996 2010

structural change and income distribution an inverted u relationship abstract this paper constructs a disequilibrium model in order to analyse the structural transition characterized by the emergence of a new sector we show that in an economy where preferences and technology adapt over time multiple long term outcomes are mainly brought about by different distributive rules governing the assignment of innovative rents between workers and entrepreneurs we robustly establish that a successful transition to a two sector economy is ensured by a balanced distribution restoring the co ordination of investment and consumption plans instead when innovative rents are too concentrated in favor of either workers or entrepreneurs the system does not fully accomplish the transition and unemployment might emerge in contrast with the standard view of a negative relationship between real wages and employment

changes over time in multidimensional poverty methodology and results for 34 countries summary this paper sets out a systemic account of intertemporal changes in multidimensional poverty using the alkire foster adjusted headcount ratio and its consistent sub indices it uses three techniques to assess the pro poorness of multidimensional poverty reduction the analysis of changes in multidimensional poverty draws on the global multidimensional poverty index mpi and related destitution measure in 34 countries and 338 sub national regions covering 2 5 billion people for which there is a recent mpi estimation and comparable demographic and health survey dhs dataset across time first it assesses overall changes in poverty and its incidence and intensity and compares this with changes in 1 90 poverty next utilizing the property of subgroup decomposability it examines changes in the mpi and its consistent sub indices over time across urban rural regions sub national regions and ethnic groups the decomposition analysis identifies relevant national patterns including those in which the pace of poverty reduction is higher for the poorest subgroups finally the paper analyzes the dynamics of a strict subset of the poor who are identified as destitute using a more extreme deprivation cutoff vector and studies relative rates of reduction of destitution and poverty by country and region this extensive empirical analysis illustrates how to assess the extent and patterns of reduction of multidimensional poverty as well as whether it is inclusive or whether some people or groups are left behind naturally some further research questions emerge

money and asset liquidity in frictional capital markets we endogenize asset liquidity and financing constraints in a dynamic general equilibrium model with search frictions on capital markets assets traded on frictional capital markets are only partially saleable liquid assets such as fiat money instead are not subject to search frictions and can be used to insure idiosyncratic investment risks partially saleable assets thus carry a liquidity premium over fully liquid assets we show that in equilibrium low asset saleability is typically associated with lower asset prices tighter financing constraints thus stronger demand for public liquidity lower asset liquidity feeds into real allocations constraining real investment consumption and production

price indexes inequality and the measurement of world poverty i discuss the measurement of world poverty and inequality with particular attention to the role of purchasing power parity ppp price indexes from the international comparison project global inequality increased with the latest revision of the icp and this reduced the global poverty line relative to the us dollar the recent large increase of nearly half a billion poor people came from an inappropriate updating of the global poverty line not from the icp revisions even so ppp comparisons between widely different countries rest on weak theoretical and empirical foundations i argue for wider use of self reports from international monitoring surveys and for a global poverty line that is truly denominated in us dollars

mathematical vindication of ricardo on machinery ricardo is shown to be right that machinery can hurt wages and reduce output a dramatic robot example reveals wicksell s error in believing that pareto optimality calls for no drop in total output from a viable invention under ricardo s axiom that labor supply adjusts to keep wages at the subsistence level he can correctly deduce on a market clearing basis a rise in his net product rent plus interest while the greater drop in population and total wages result in a reduction in his gross product rent plus interest plus wages

liquidity flows and fragility of business enterprises abstract this paper develops a macroeconomic model in which funds are channeled to entrepreneurs through long term relationships between entrepreneurs and lenders the flow of funds to a relationship may be low causing it to break up due to insufficient liquidity multiple pareto ranked steady states emerge from complementarity between financial intermediation reflected by the number of relationships and households incentives to provide funds this complementarity also serves as a mechanism for propagating aggregate shocks financial collapse may become inescapable if a shock destroys sufficiently many relationships

the renminbi and poor country growth discussions on how best to exit from global imbalances to create a more balanced world economy have ignored the impact on poor countries of proposals to redress these imbalances this paper aims at filling that gap it gauges the degree of renminbi rmb undervaluation presents evidence on rmb undervaluation and china s gdp growth rate surveys the role of the real effective exchange rate both its level and its stability over time for underpinning growth in developing countries especially in large dual economies such as china and india finally the paper presents new evidence on growth linkages between china and poor countries for the last two decades and surveys literature on potential displacement effects of rmb appreciation the analysis allows broad conclusions to be drawn about the potential developing country beneficiaries and losers from various renminbi adjustment scenarios in the forthcoming years

microfinance and poverty a macro perspective we test the hypothesis that microfinance reduces poverty at the macro level using cross country and panel data which are constructed by the microfinance information exchange data on microfinance institutions mfis and the world bank data taking account of the endogeneity associated with mfis loans we show that a country with higher mfis gross loan portfolio per capita tends to have lower levels of poverty indices contrary to recent micro evidence our results suggest that microfinance significantly reduces poverty at macro level and thus reinforce the case for channeling funds from development finance institutions and governments of developing countries into mfis

china s uneven progress against poverty while the incidence of extreme poverty in china fell dramatically over 1980 2001 progress was uneven over time and across provinces rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor though migration to urban areas helped the pattern of growth mattered rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of gross domestic product gdp rising inequality within the rural sector greatly slowed poverty reduction provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against poverty due both to lower growth and a lower growth elasticity of poverty reduction taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor external trade had little short term impact

measuring global poverty why ppp methods matter abstract we present theory and evidence to suggest that in the context of analyzing global poverty the eks approach to estimating purchasing power parities yields more appropriate international comparison of real incomes than the geary khamis approach our analysis of the 1996 and 2005 international comparison project data confirms that the geary khamis approach substantially overstates the relative incomes of the world s poorest nations and this leads to misleading comparisons of poverty across regions and over time the eks index of real income is much closer to being a true index of economic welfare and is therefore preferred for assessment of global poverty

an exploration of the changes in the international comparison program s global economic landscape abstract the purchasing power parity ppp rates from the 2011 round of the international comparison program icp imply some dramatic revisions to price levels and real incomes across the world as compared to the prior 2005 round this has important implications for many cross country comparisons including measures of poverty and inequality without presuming that either round is better methodologically the paper tries to help the community of icp users better understand the economic factors underlying the estimated changes in price levels across countries differences in domestic inflation rates have played a role as expected two other factors are identified the excess sensitivity to changes in market exchange rates suggests that the ppps may put higher weight on internationally traded goods than do domestic deflators additionally faster growing countries have seen a steeper rise in their ppp relative to market exchange rates this can be explained by a tendency for wage increases in growing economies to lead to a higher price level together these factors account for over 70 of the variance in ppp changes even ignoring methodological changes however an independent downward drift in price levels is also evident concentrated in the icp s asia region a possible explanation lies in the asia region s greater success relative to other regions in removing urban bias in the price surveys

liquidity and asset prices in a monetary model with otc asset markets abstract we study how asset prices are affected by the amount of liquidity that is available in over the counter asset markets where dealers post prices and quantities at which they are willing to buy and sell assets we find that higher levels of market liquidity lead to higher asset prices and lower bid ask spreads hence an increase in inflation which lowers market liquidity increases asset returns and decreases asset prices when agents immediate consumption needs are stochastic asset prices will fluctuate even though asset fundamentals are unchanging the fluctuations in asset prices reflect the stochastic availability of market liquidity that results from agents changing consumption opportunities

weakly relative poverty prevailing measures of relative poverty are unchanged when all incomes grow or contract by the same proportion this property stems from seemingly implausible assumptions about the disutility of relative deprivation and the cost of social inclusion the authors propose weakly relative lines that relax these assumptions on calibrating our measures to national poverty lines and survey data we find that half the population of the developing world in 2005 lived in poverty only half of whom were absolutely poor the total number of poor rose over 1981 to 2005 despite falling numbers of absolutely poor with sustained economic growth the incidence of relative poverty became less responsive to further growth the number of relatively poor rose just as the numbers of absolutely poor fell

going global in groups structural transformation and china s special economic zones overseas summary china s special economic zones helped the country industrialize by attracting foreign investment in 2006 beijing initiated an overseas trade and cooperation zone program assisting chinese companies to invest abroad while also building china s soft power through the transfer of a key component of china s development success little is known about the 19 zones approved so far under this program or the impact they are likely to have on structural transformation and industrial development in their host countries this paper identifies the 19 zones and their proposed locations the process of selection developers implementation and the chinese incentive regime it then focuses on the african zones using a typology of factors that have proven critical for zone development in the past the paper evaluates the potential of these zones for fostering structural transformation in africa

poverty and household size the widely held view that larger families tend to be poorer in developing countries has influenced research and policy the scope for size economies in consumption cautions against this view we find that the correlation between poverty and size vanishes in pakistan when the size elasticity of the cost of living is about 0 6 this turns out to be the elasticity implied by a modified version of the food share method of setting scales by contrast some measures of child nutritional status indicate an elasticity of unity consideration of the weight attached to child versus adult welfare may help resolve the non robustness of demographic profiles of poverty excerpt

search bargaining money and prices the goal of this paper is to extend existing search theoretic models of fiat money which until now have assumed that the price level is exogenous by explicitly incorporating bilateral bargaining this allows us to determine the price level endogenously and leads to additional insights concerning the role of money for example we find that monetary equilibria are generally inefficient in the sense that output and prices differ from the solution to a social planner s problem although the difference can become small as the discount rate or search friction vanishes we also find that there exist nonstationary inflationary equilibria

measuring poverty in a growing world or measuring growth in a poor world the extent to which growth reduces global poverty has been disputed for 30 years although there are better data than ever before controversies are not resolved a major problem is that consumption measured from household surveys which is used to measure poverty grows less rapidly than consumption measured in national accounts in the world as a whole and in large countries particularly india china and the united states in consequence measured poverty has fallen less rapidly than appears warranted by measured growth in poor countries one plausible cause is that richer households are less likely to participate in surveys but growth in the national accounts is also upward biased and consumption in the national accounts contains large and rapidly growing items that are not consumed by the poor and not included in surveys so it is possible for consumption of the poor to grow less rapidly than national consumption without any increase in measured inequality current statistical procedures in poor

business cycle models with endogenous technology this paper compares real and monetary business cycle models with and without endogenous technical change if technology is endogenous the properties of these models change significantly in particular both real and monetary models yield very similar output processes if growth is endogenous and changes in aggregate demand can result in permanent changes in productivity employment and output the effect of depreciation of technology is examined and the pattern of real wage movements over the cycle when money wages are fixed but technology is changing is briefly considered copyright 1990 by american economic association

making room for china in the world economy as it comes out of the crisis the world econ omy faces two apparently conflicting demands on the one hand achieving global macroeco nomic stability and preventing a protectionist backlash will require that we avoid large current account imbalances of the type that the world economy experienced in the run up to the cri sis on the other hand returning to rapid growth in the developing nations will require that they resume their conquest of global market share in tradable goods the challenge of meeting both demands is epitomized by the contentious us china bilat eral relationship american and european policy makers blame china for an undervalued renminbi which they argue is the root cause of china s huge trade surplus chinese leaders resist the pressure fearing that appreciation will undercut the competitiveness of chinese goods in world markets hurt exports and damage growth the western answer to this concern is that china needs to replace foreign demand with domestic demand as the engine of growth but if growth depends primarily on the sup ply of modern manufactured products and other tradables as opposed to services and non trad ables as i will argue here the chinese position has more force than critics give it credit the conventional fix for china s current account surplus consisting of a combination of expendi ture expansion and currency appreciation will shift the structure of the economy away from tradables and towards non tradables this may be good for macroeconomic balance in china and elsewhere but it will almost certainly have adverse effects on china s growth perhaps large enough even to endanger the country s social and political stability

asset prices and liquidity in an exchange economy i develop an asset pricing model in which financial assets are valued for their liquidity the extent to which they are useful in facilitating exchange as well as for being claims to streams of consumption goods the implications for average asset returns the equity premium puzzle and the risk free rate puzzle are explored in a version of the model that nests the work of mehra and prescott 1985

payments and liquidity under adverse selection informational asymmetries regarding the future value of assets affect their role in exchange i construct a random matching economy composed of two assets a risk free bond and a lucas tree whose terminal value is privately known to its holder no restrictions are imposed on payment arrangements the main finding supports a pecking order theory of payments agents use their risk free bonds first in order to finance their spending shocks and they use their information sensitive assets only if their holdings of bonds are depleted the theory has implications for the optimal provision of risk free bonds the structure of asset returns and liquidity

why did wicksell change his mind about the machinery question abstract the article investigates wicksell s change of mind about the machinery question between 1890 and 1900 1901 wicksell at first sided with the so called compensation theory that workers are not harmed by the introduction of machinery in his lecture notes of april 1900 made available here for the first time wicksell deployed marginal productivity theory to discuss the effects of labour saving technical progress with inconclusive results finally in his published 1901 lectures and in his 1900 article about marginal productivity wicksell claimed that the introduction of machinery increases output and reduces wages his analysis was based on the demonstration that free competition maximizes output but not total utility it is argued that wicksell s change of mind and his mature formulation of the machinery question result from his critical assessment of the then new concept of pareto optimality together with his reinterpretation and rejection of ricardo s 1821 contention that the introduction of machinery may diminish output and employment

liquidity and trading dynamics in this paper we build a model where the presence of liquidity constraints tends to magnify the economy s response to aggregate shocks we consider a decentralized model of trade where agents may use money or credit to buy goods when agents do not have access to credit and the real value of money balances is low agents are more likely to be liquidity constrained this makes them more concerned about their short term earning prospects when making their consumption decisions and about their short term spending opportunities when making their production decisions this generates a coordination element in spending and production which leads to greater aggregate volatility and greater comovement across producers

money in search equilibrium in competitive equilibrium and in competitive search equilibrium we compare three market structures for monetary economies bargaining search equilibrium price taking competitive equilibrium and price posting competitive search equilibrium we also extend work on the microfoundations of money by allowing a general matching technology and entry we study how equilibrium and the effects of policy depend on market structure under bargaining trade and entry are both inefficient and inflation implies first order welfare losses under price taking the friedman rule solves the first inefficiency but not the second and inflation may actually improve welfare under posting the friedman rule yields the first best and inflation implies second order welfare losses

the developing world is poorer than we thought but no less successful in the fight against poverty a new data set on national poverty lines is combined with new price data and almost 700 household surveys to estimate absolute poverty measures for the developing world we find that 25 of the population lived in poverty in 2005 as judged by what poverty typically means in the world s poorest countries this is higher than past estimates substantial overall progress is still indicated the corresponding poverty rate was 52 in 1981 but progress was very uneven across regions the trends over time and regional profile are robust to various changes in methodology though precise counts are more sensitive

growth still is good for the poor incomes in the poorest two quintiles on average increase at the same rate as overall average incomes this is because in a global dataset spanning 118 countries over the past four decades changes in the share of income of the poorest quintiles are generally small and uncorrelated with changes in average income the variation in changes in quintile shares is also small relative to the variation in growth in average incomes implying that the latter accounts for most of the variation in income growth in the poorest quintiles these findings hold across most regions and time periods and when conditioning on a variety of country level factors that may matter for growth and inequality changes this evidence confirms the central importance of economic growth for poverty reduction and illustrates the difficulty of identifying specific macroeconomic policies that are significantly associated with the relative growth rates of those in the poorest quintiles

money and capital as competing media of exchange we construct a model where capital competes with fiat money as a medium of exchange and we establish conditions on fundamentals under which fiat money can be both valued and socially beneficial when the socially efficient stock of capital is too low to provide the liquidity agents need they overaccumulate productive assets to use as media of exchange when this is the case there exists a monetary equilibrium that dominates the nonmonetary one in terms of welfare under the friedman rule fiat money provides just enough liquidity so that agents choose to accumulate the same capital stock a social planner would

entry and exit in otc derivatives markets we develop a parsimonious model to study the equilibrium and socially optimal decisions of banks to enter trade in and possibly exit an otc market although we endow all banks with the same trading technology banks optimal entry and trading decisions endogenously lead to a realistic market structure composed of dealers and customers with distinct trading patterns we decompose banks entry incentives into incentives to hedge risk and incentives to make intermediation profits we show that dealer banks enter more than is socially optimal in the face of large negative shocks they may also exit more than is socially optimal when markets are not perfectly resilient

the mdgs and exit time the case of the philippines this article evaluates whether the philippines will be able to halve the incidence of poverty between 1990 and 2015 using the concept of exit time and household level data we find that the philippines as a whole will not be able to comply with target 1 of the millennium development goals mdgs although 15 of its provinces will be able to do so these provinces are closer to manila characterized by higher per capita expenditure growth rates and had lower incidence of poverty in 1988 this suggests the importance of policies to mitigate the regional disparity in achieving the mdgs

liquidity assets and business cycles abstract the objective here is to evaluate the quantitative importance of financial frictions in business cycles the analysis shows that a negative financial shock can cause aggregate investment employment and consumption to fall with output despite this realistic comovement among macro quantities a negative financial shock generates an equity price boom as the shock tightens firms financing constraint this counterfactual response of the equity price is robust to a wide range of variations in how financial frictions are modeled and whether financial shocks affect asset liquidity or firms collateral constraints some possible resolutions to this puzzle are discussed

measuring and understanding behavior welfare and poverty angus deaton delivered his prize lecture on tuesday 8 december 2015 at the aula magna stockholm university these are the lecture slides this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the world distribution of income falling poverty and convergence period we estimate the world distribution of income by integrating individual income distributions for 138 countries between 1970 and 2000 country distributions are constructed by combining national accounts gdp per capita to anchor the mean with survey data to pin down the dispersion poverty rates and head counts are reported for four specific poverty lines rates in 2000 were between one third and one half of what they were in 1970 for all four lines there were between 250 and 500 million fewer poor in 2000 than in 1970 we estimate eight indexes of income inequality implied by our world distribution of income all of them show reductions in global inequality during the 1980s and 1990s

adjusting to technological change the subject of my address is adjusting to technological change something that a lot of people are doing nowadays the revolution in information and communication technologies and the transition to a knowledge based economy are inducing people in every sector to change how they work and do business what i want to emphasize is that these changes constitute a social process that involves more than the sum of our individual struggles with inanimate nature people are adjusting not only to changes in technology but to changes that others are making to technology adjustments in one sector induce unexpected adjustments and innovations in other sectors in a complex process that none of the participants can possibly comprehend the process is governed by social institutions particularly by the business enterprises that organize almost all economic transactions in a modem economy and at the same time it is transforming those institutions a graphic account of how peoples lives are being tossed about by the winds of change might be too depressing for this occasion so to keep it light i am simply going to talk about macroeconomic theory if there is one profession that has not yet seen much of the darker side of technological change it is macroeconomic theory in fact the recent resurgence of interest in growth and technological change seems to have had a calming effect on the profession by diverting attention from the issues of unemployment inflation and aggregate demand management that have been the subjects of the furious controversies since the keynesian revolution peaceful coexistence has emerged between previously opposing schools now united by the

estimating the scale and geography of global poverty now and in the future how much difference do method and assumptions make summary estimates of the historic and future scale and location or geography of global poverty by income expenditure have a long and contentious history in recent projections made on global poverty methods and assumptions vary so widely it is impossible to compare studies in a systematic way even on their estimates of current poverty in light of this we discuss the methodological issues arising and use a custom built model to provide a new consistent set of long run estimates of global poverty to show the impact of different methods and assumptions on the scale and location of global poverty

the macroeconomics of labor and credit market imperfections labour market frictions are not the only possible source of high unemployment credit market imperfections driven by microeconomic frictions and influenced by macroeconomic factors could also be to blame to develop this idea in a simple and tractable macroeconomic model we treat credit and labour market imperfections in a symmetrical way accordingly we introduce specificity in credit relationships and assume that credit to potential entrepreneurs is rationed due to endogenous search frictions in the spirit of diamond 1990 these imperfections mirror job search frictions in the labour market we study the determination of equilibrium unemployment in the presence of credit market frictions both with exogenous and endogenous wages we explore a number of possible extensions endogenous destruction monetary policy and the short run effects of financial liberalization

liquidity monetary policy and the financial crisis a new monetarist approach a model of public and private liquidity integrates financial intermediation theory with a new monetarist monetary framework nonpassive fiscal policy and costs of operating a currency system imply that an optimal policy deviates from the friedman rule a liquidity trap can exist in equilibrium away from the friedman rule and there exists a permanent nonneutrality of money driven by an illiquidity effect financial frictions can produce a financial crisis phenomenon that can be mitigated by conventional open market operations working in an unconventional manner private asset purchases by the central bank are either irrelevant or they reallocate credit and redistribute income jel e13 e44 e52 e62 g01 liquidity is a class of assets that is useful in exchange some of these liquid assets are government liabilities federal reserve notes treasury bills and treasury notes some are private liabilities the deposit liabilities of banks and some asset backed securities for example conventional wisdom holds that the main role of a central bank is to manage public liquidity in a manner that controls inflation and enhances the provision of private liquidity and credit however the mechanism by which central bank actions work to perform this role still appears to be poorly understood as has been highlighted by the financial crisis and the ensuing policy responses the purpose of this paper is to build a model of public and private liquidity that captures the features of modern economies essential to the analysis of monetary policy and that can be used to shed light on some current monetary policy problems and questions what is a liquid asset and what roles do privately provided and publicly provided liquid assets play in exchange in a model where we capture these roles for liquid assets what are the implications for monetary policy under what circumstances can a liquidity trap occur how does monetary policy work when there is a positive quantity of excess reserves held by banks what does a financial crisis do to the supply of private liquidity and what should monetary policy do in response

the cleansing effect of recessions the authors investigate industry response to cyclical variations in demand production units that embody the newest process and product innovations are continuously being created and outdated units are being destroyed although outdated units are the most likely to turn unprofitable and be scrapped in a recession they can be insulated from the fall in demand by a reduction in creation the structure of adjustment costs plays a determinant role in the responsiveness of those two margins the calibrated model matches the relative volatilities of the observed manufacturing job creation and destruction series and their asymmetries over the cycle copyright 1994 by american economic association

portfolio choice and pricing in illiquid markets abstract this paper studies portfolio choice and pricing in markets in which immediate trading may be impossible it departs from the literature by removing restrictions on asset holdings and finds that optimal positions depend significantly and naturally on liquidity when expected future liquidity is high agents take more extreme positions given that they do not have to hold those positions for long when they become undesirable consequently larger trades should be observed in markets with more frequent trading liquidity need not affect the price significantly however because liquidity has offsetting impacts on different agents demands this result highlights the importance of unrestricted portfolio choice the paper draws parallels with the transaction cost literature and clarifies the relationship between the price level and the realized trading frequency in this literature

is it enough evidence from a natural experiment in india s agriculture markets access to information and communication technologies icts such as mobile phone networks is widely known to improve market efficiency in this paper we examine whether access to timely and accurate information provided through ict applications has any additional impact using a detailed data set from reuters market light rml a text message service in india that provides daily price information to market participants we find that this information reduces the geographic price dispersion of crops in rural communities by an average of 12 over and above access to mobile phone technology and other means of communication to identify the effect of information on price dispersion we exploit a natural experiment where bulk text messages were banned unexpectedly across india for 12 days in 2010 we find that besides reducing geographic price dispersion rml also increases the rate at which prices converge across india over time we discuss the implications of this for development organizations and informat

a unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis search theoretic models of monetary exchange are based on explicit descriptions of the frictions that make money essential however tractable versions of these models typically make strong assumptions that render them ill suited for monetary policy analysis we propose a new framework based on explicit micro foundations within which macro policy can be studied the framework is analytically tractable and easily quantifiable we calibrate the model to standard observations and use it to measure the cost of inflation we find that going from 10 percent to 0 percent inflation is worth between 3 and 5 percent of consumption much higher than previous estimates

liquidity provision interest rates and unemployment abstract the effective liquidity supply of the economy the weighted sum of all assets that serve as media of exchange matters for interest rates and unemployment we formalize this idea by adding an over the counter market with collateralized trades to the mortensen pissarides model an increase in public liquidity through a higher supply of real government bonds raises the real interest rate crowding out private liquidity and increasing unemployment if unemployment is inefficiently high keeping liquidity scarce can be socially optimal a liquidity crisis affecting the acceptability of private assets as collateral widens the rate of return difference between private and public liquidity also increasing unemployment

the renminbi and poor country growth the renminbi and poor country growth discussions on how best to exit from global imbalances to create a more balanced world economy have ignored the impact on poor countries of proposals to redress these imbalances this paper aims at filling that gap it gauges the degree of renminbi rmb undervaluation presents evidence on rmb undervaluation and china s gdp growth rate surveys the role of the real effective exchange rate both its level and its stability over time for underpinning growth in developing countries especially in large dual economies such as china and india and finally presents new evidence on growth linkages between china and poor countries for the last two decades and surveys literature on potential displacement effects of rmb appreciation the analysis allows broad conclusions to be drawn about the potential developing country beneficiaries and losers from various renminbi adjustment scenarios in the forthcoming years

money and prices a model of search and bargaining abstract this paper makes commodities divisible and incorporates bargaining into the search theoretic model of money to determine the purchasing power of money or price it is shown that two monetary equilibria always coexist where fiat money is universally accepted the two equilibria differ in price output welfare and the velocity of money sunspot monetary equilibria exist in which money is universally accepted in all states of the economy multiplicity has novel implications on the effectiveness of currency substitution and exchange market intervention journal of economic literature classification numbers c78 e40

world welfare is rising estimation using nonparametric bounds on welfare measures abstract i take a new approach to measuring world inequality and welfare over time by constructing robust bounds for these series instead of imposing parametric assumptions to compute point estimates i derive sharp bounds on the atkinson inequality index that are valid for any underlying distribution of income conditional on given fractile shares and gini coefficients while the bounds are too wide to reject the hypothesis that world inequality may have risen i show that world welfare rose unambiguously between 1970 and 2006 this conclusion is valid for alternative methods of dealing with countries and years with missing surveys alternative survey harmonization procedures alternative gdp series or if the inequality surveys used systematically underreport the income of the very rich or suffer from nonresponse bias

business cycles and labor market search the quantitative implications of labor market search for economic fluctuations are evaluated in the context of a real business cycle model incorporating labor market search into the model is found to improve its empirical performance along several dimensions in particular hours now fluctuate substantially more than wages and the contemporaneous correlation between hours and productivity falls in addition the model replicates the observation that output growth displays positive autocorrelation at short horizons overall the empirical results suggest that the labor market search environment embodies a quantitatively important propagation mechanism copyright 1996 by american economic association

an empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity this article explores cross market liquidity dynamics by estimating a vector autoregressive model for liquidity bid ask spread and depth returns volatility and order flow in the stock and treasury bond markets innovations to stock and bond market liquidity and volatility are significantly correlated implying that common factors drive liquidity and volatility in these markets volatility shocks are informative in predicting shifts in liquidity during crisis periods monetary expansions are associated with increased liquidity moreover money flows to government bond funds forecast bond market liquidity the results establish a link between macro liquidity or money flows and micro or transactions liquidity a number of important theorems in finance rely on the ability of investors to trade any amount of a security without affecting the price however there exist several frictions 1 such as trading costs short sale restrictions and circuit breakers that impact price formation the influence of market imperfections on security pricing has long been recognized liquidity in particular has attracted a lot of attention from traders regulators

liquidity business cycles and monetary policy this paper presents a model of monetary economy with dier ences in liquidity across assets our purpose is to study how aggre gate production and asset prices uctuate with shocks to productivity and liquidity in so doing we examine what role government policy might have through open market operations that change the mix of assets held by the private sector we also show that certain apparent anomalies of asset markets are in fact normal features of a monetary economy in which the circulation of money is essential for a better allocation of resources

bank finance versus bond finance we present a model with agency costs where heterogeneous firms raise finance through either bank loans or corporate bonds and where banks are more efficient than the market in resolving informational problems we document some major long run differences in corporate finance between the united states and the euro area and show that our model can explain those differences based on information availability the model fits the data best when the euro area is characterized by lower availability of public information about corporate credit risk relative to the united states and when european firms value more than united states firms banks flexibility and information acquisition role

china s soaring vehicle population even greater than forecasted abstract china s vehicle population is widely forecasted to grow 6 11 per year into the foreseeable future barring aggressive policy intervention or a collapse of the chinese economy we suggest that those forecasts are conservative we analyze the historical vehicle growth patterns of seven of the largest vehicle producing countries at comparable times in their motorization history we estimate vehicle growth rates for this analogous group of countries to have 13 17 per year roughly twice the rate forecasted for china by others applying these higher growth rates to china results in the total vehicle fleet reaching considerably higher volumes than forecasted by others implying far higher global oil use and carbon emissions than projected by the international energy agency and others

leaning against the wind during financial disruptions market makers provide liquidity by absorbing external selling pressure they buy when the pressure is large accumulate inventories and sell when the pressure alleviates this paper studies optimal dynamic liquidity provision in a theoretical market setting with large and temporary selling pressure and order execution delays i show that competitive market makers offer the socially optimal amount of liquidity provided they have access to sufficient capital if raising capital is costly this suggests a policy role for lenient central bank lending during financial disruptions

the effects of risk and shocks on non farm enterprise development in rural ethiopia summary this paper assesses the impact of risk and shocks on non farm enterprise development in rural ethiopia using a matched household enterprise community dataset augmented with precipitation based measures of risk the likelihood of running a non farm firm and the returns to running such firms co vary with agricultural productivity shocks diversification into non farm activities thus provides limited protection against fluctuations in agricultural performance this may explain why ex ante risk has no impact on the likelihood of running a non farm firm it nonetheless hampers non farm enterprise development by repressing investment and inducing sorting into less capital intensive activities

on the measurement of poverty official statistics in the united states and the united kingdom show a rise in poverty between the 1970 s and the 1980 s but scepticism has been expressed with regard to these findings in particular the methods employed in the measurement of poverty have been the subject of criticism this paper re examines three basic issues in measuring poverty the choice of the poverty line the index of poverty and the relation between poverty and inequality one general theme running through the paper is that there is a diversity of judgments which enter the measurement of poverty and that it is necessary to recognize these explicitly in the procedures adopted there is likely to be disagreement about the choice of poverty line affecting both its level and its structure in this situation we may only be able to make comparisons and not to measure differences and the comparisons may lead only to a partial rather than a complete ordering the first section of the paper discusses the stochastic dominance conditions which allow such comparisons illustrating their application by reference to data for the united states the choice of poverty measure has been the subject of an extensive literature and a variety of measures have been proposed in the second section of the paper a different approach is suggested considering a class of measures satisfying certain general properties and seeking conditions under which all members of the class which includes many of those proposed give the same ranking those sceptical about measures of poverty often assert that poverty and inequality are being confounded the third section of the paper distinguishes four different viewpoints and relates them to theories of justice and views of social welfare

measuring energy poverty focusing on what matters abstract the provision of modern energy services is recognised as a critical foundation for sustainable development and is central to the everyday lives of people effective policies to dramatically expand modern energy access need to be grounded in a robust information base metrics that can be used for comparative purposes and to track progress towards targets therefore represent an essential support tool this paper reviews the relevant literature and discusses the adequacy and applicability of existing instruments to measure energy poverty drawing on those insights it proposes a new composite index to measure energy poverty both the associated methodology and initial results for several african countries are discussed whereas most existing indicators and composite indices focus on assessing the access to energy or the degree of development related to energy our new index the multidimensional energy poverty index mepi focuses on the deprivation of access to modern energy services it captures both the incidence and intensity of energy poverty and provides a new tool to support policy making

inequality among world citizens 1820 1992 this paper investigates the distribution of well being among world citizens during the last two centuries the estimates show that inequality of world distribution of income worsened from the beginning of the 19th century to world war ii and after that seems to have stabilized or to have grown more slowly in the early 19th century most inequality was due to differences within countries later it was due to differences between countries inequality in longevity also increased during the 19th century but then was reversed in the second half of the 20th century perhaps mitigating the failure of income inequality to improve in the last decades jel d31 f0 n0 o0