product risk asymmetric information and trade credit the purpose of this paper is to explain cross sectional variations in trade credit terms across firms and industries this study shows that there is a separating equilibrium in which the size of the cash discount conveys information about product quality the driving forces of this equilibrium outcome are the risk sharing motives of the producer and buyer as well as asymmetric information about product quality the empirical implications of the model are derived and discussed in relation to industry practices

liquidity effects and the monetary transmission mechanism several recent papers provide strong empirical support for the view that an expansionary monetary policy disturbance generates a persistent decrease in interest rates and a persistent increase in output and employment existing quantitative general equilibrium models which allow for capital accumulation are inconsistent with this view there does exist a recently developed class of general equilibrium models which can rationalize the contemporaneous response of interest rates output and employment to a money supply shock however a key shortcoming of these models is that they cannot rationalize persistent liquidity effects this paper discusses the basic frictions and mechanisms underlying this new class of models and investigates one avenue for generating persistence we argue that once a simplified version of the model in christiano and eichenbaum 1991 is modified to allow for extremely small costs of adjusting sectoral flow of funds positive money shocks generate long lasting quantitatively significant liquidity effects as well as persistent increases in aggregate economic activity

alfred marshall lecture social capital as good culture to explain the extremely long term persistence more than 500 years of positive historical experiences of cooperation putnam 1993 we model the intergenerational transmission of priors about the trustworthiness of others we show that this transmission tends to be biased toward excessively conservative priors as a result societies can be trapped in a low trust equilibrium in this context a temporary shock to the return to trusting can have a permanent effect on the level of trust we validate the model by testing its predictions on the world values survey data and the german socio economic panel we also present some anecdotal evidence that these priors are reflected in novels that originate in different parts of the country jel 04 016 043 p16

the economics of small business finance the roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle abstract this article examines the economics of financing small business in private equity and debt markets firms are viewed through a financial growth cycle paradigm in which different capital structures are optimal at different points in the cycle we show the sources of small business finance and how capital structure varies with firm size and age the interconnectedness of small firm finance is discussed along with the impact of the macroeconomic environment we also analyze a number of research and policy issues review the literature and suggest topics for future research

trust and stock price crash risk evidence from china abstract this paper examines the impact of social trust on stock price crash risk social trust measures the level of mutual trust among the members of a society using a large sample of chinese listed firms for the 2001 2015 period we find that firms headquartered in regions of high social trust tend to have smaller crash risks this result is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests and is more prominent for state owned enterprises soes for firms with weak monitoring and for firms with higher risk taking moreover we observe that firms in regions of high social trust are associated with higher accounting conservatism and fewer financial restatements our study suggests that social trust is an important variable that is omitted in the literature investigating the predictors of stock price crashes

evidence on the determinants of credit terms used in interfirm trade trade credit is created whenever a supplier offers terms that allow the buyer to delay payment in this paper we document the rich variation in interfirm credit terms and credit policies across industries we examine empirically the firm s basic credit policy choices whether to extend credit or to require cash payment and if credit is extended whether to adopt simple net terms or terms with discounts for prompt payment we also examine determinants of variations in two part terms results are supportive primarily of theories that explain credit terms as contractual solutions to information problems concerning product quality and buyer creditworthiness trade credit has important economic significance from both micro and macroeconomic perspectives during the 1990s vendor financing has accounted for an average 1 5 trillion of the book value of all assets of u s corporations and has represented approximately 2 5 times the combined value of all new public debt and primary equity issues during a given year as a component of the money supply trade credit in the form of accounts payable exceeds the primary money supply mi by a factor of 1 5 on average 1 clearly efforts to control economic growth through monetary policy can be confounded by aggregate decisions of businesses to increase or decrease reliance on trade credit financing several recent empirical studies examine determinants of firm reliance on trade credit 2 these studies model supply and demand for trade credit using financial statement data accounts receivable and payable 3 however many aspects of trade credit practice are unexplored most notably little is known about the types of credit terms e g net 30 2 10 net 30 and credit policies that are observed across firms and industries the only comprehensive doc

sustaining production chains through financial linkages abstract the technological constraints on sustaining production chains have been discussed extensively by development economists but the role of financial linkages has received less attention in a model of recursive moral hazard for a manufacturing supply chain we show that the structure of interlocking receivables and payables serve as the glue for the production chain that sustains complex manufacturing output the inefficiency associated with recursive moral hazard can be mitigated through optimal delays in payments along the chain however efficiency requires large stocks of working capital and invoice prices are high due to implicit amortization costs of inter firm credit

co2 emissions and economic development china s 12th five year plan abstract for the period of the 12th five year plan 2011 2015 the chinese government has decided to reconsider and adjust its policies on economic development because of the pressures of co 2 emissions and fossil energy consumption the current paper adopts the logarithmic stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat model to simulate the relationship between co 2 emissions and other economic development factors in china three groups of outliers are found using samples from 1989 to 2008 and the partial least square pls regularity test method the outlier analysis reveals three important areas for co 2 reduction a decreasing the share of coal to the total energy consumption and replacing it with non fossil energies b controlling vehicles used in the cities as well as c adjusting industrial structure furthermore based on the social and economic realities of china the current paper designs six feasible development scenarios for the period covered by the 12th five year plan and predicts the values of each factor in each scenario the values can test the implementation of china s co 2 control development concept the experiences obtained by outlier analysis can be of significant reference value for realizing the predicted scenarios

trade credit and informational asymmetry commonly used trade credit terms implicitly define a high interest rate that operates as an efficient screening device where information about buyer default risk is asymmetrically held by offering trade credit a seller can identify prospective defaults more quickly than if financial institutions were the sole providers of short term financing the information is valuable in cases where the seller has made nonsalvageable investments in buyers since it enables the seller to take actions to protect such investments traditional explanations for the widespread use of trade credit fall into two categories the financing motive holds that capital market imperfections enable sellers to finance buyer purchases at lower cost than financial institutions ferris 4 argues that trade credit provides payment flexibility and thus reduces the overall need for buyers and sellers to maintain precautionary balances emery 3 contends that noncompetitive rents of financial institutions can be circumvented by sellers and buyers through provision of trade credit however the financing motive is not sufficient to explain why small suppliers offer trade credit the wide cross sectional variation in terms or why large buyers often take the prompt payment discount late a second set of explanations is best described as pricing motivations for trade credit provision nadiri 10 argues that availability of alternative payment terms can increase product demand but does not indicate why the offered terms could not be duplicated by financial institutions schwartz and whitcomb 14 argue that trade credit is used to circumvent robinson patman and similar prohibitions on price discrimination the correctness of this position depends on the charge to users of trade credit exceeding the cost of provision by the seller although the explanation is possible in principle an empirical question remains as to why variations in actual credit terms appear to be based on product market rather than buyer characteristics the literature also contains analyses of the impact of changing macroeconomic conditions on trade credit terms and aggregate credit flows schwartz 13 for example employs a financing motive for trade credit to conclude that restrictive monetary policy can be partly mitigated by liberalization of trade credit terms by firms with relatively easy access to capital markets however a microeconomic

evaluating microfoundations for aggregate price rigidities evidence from matched firm level data on product prices and unit labor cost a number of competing business cycle models have recently emerged all of which can explain why nominal shocks have real effects 1 although sharing a large number of common features a key difference between these models lies in the assumptions of how firms set prices and process information yet there exists very little direct micro evidence on the credibility of these assumptions this paper uses detailed data on product prices and unit labor cost merged at the firm level to evaluate competing sets of assumptions regarding firms price setting behavior thereby we provide firsthand evidence on the empirical relevance of the microfoundations of different dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models

costly external finance corporate investment and the subprime mortgage credit crisis abstract we study the effect of the recent financial crisis on corporate investment the crisis represents an unexplored negative shock to the supply of external finance for non financial firms corporate investment declines significantly following the onset of the crisis controlling for firm fixed effects and time varying measures of investment opportunities consistent with a causal effect of a supply shock the decline is greatest for firms that have low cash reserves or high net short term debt are financially constrained or operate in industries dependent on external finance to address endogeneity concerns we measure firms financial positions as much as four years prior to the crisis and confirm that similar results do not follow placebo crises in the summers of 2003 2006 nor do similar results follow the negative demand shock caused by september 11 2001 the effects weaken considerably beginning in the third quarter of 2008 when the demand side effects of the crisis became apparent additional analysis suggests an important precautionary savings motive for seemingly excess cash that is generally overlooked in the literature

customer markets credit market imperfections and real price rigidity according to standard theory an increase in demand should raise prices of goods given factor prices empirically however prices appear to be unaffected by short run variations in demand this paper suggests an explanation of this observation if customers react slowly to price changes and credit markets are imperfect prices may be unchanged or even fall when demand increases the reason is that when demand is high profits are high and firms can compete more intensely for customers without increasing their borrowing copyright 1991 by the london school of economics and political science

inflation dynamics during the financial crisis using confidential product level price data underlying the u s producer price index ppi this paper analyzes the effect of changes in firms financial conditions on their price setting behavior during the great recession that surrounds the financial crisis the evidence indicates that during the height of the crisis in late 2008 firms with weak balance sheets increased prices significantly relative to industry averages whereas firms with strong balance sheets lowered prices a response consistent with an adverse demand shock these stark differences in price setting behavior are consistent with the notion that financial frictions may significantly influence the response of aggregate inflation to macroeconomic shocks we explore the implications of these empirical findings within a general equilibrium framework that allows for customer markets and departures from the frictionless financial markets in the model firms have an incentive to set a low price to invest in market share though when financial distortions are severe firms forgo these investment opportunities and maintain high prices in an effort to preserve their balance sheet capacity consistent with our empirical findings the model with financial distortions relative to the baseline model without such distortions implies a substantial attenuation of price dynamics in response to contractionary demand shocks

disentangling the effects of a banking crisis evidence from german firms and counties lending cuts by banks directly affect the firms borrowing from them but also indirectly depress economic activity in the regions in which they operate this paper moves beyond firm level studies by estimating the effects of an exogenous lending cut by a large german bank on firms and counties i construct an instrument for regional exposure to the lending cut based on a historic postwar breakup of the bank i present evidence that the lending cut affected firms independently of their banking relationships through lower aggregate demand and agglomeration spillovers in counties exposed to the lending cut output and employment remained persistently low even after bank lending had normalized innovation and productivity fell consistent with the persistent effects

trade credit and the propagation of corporate failure an empirical analysis using an exhaustive data set on claims held by trade creditors suppliers on failed trade debtors customers we quantify the importance of trade credit chains for the propagation of corporate bankruptcy we show that trade creditors experience significant trade credit losses due to trade debtor failures and that creditors bankruptcy risks increase in the size of incurred losses by exploring the roles of financial constraints and creditor debtor dependences we infer that the trade credit failure propagation mechanism is driven by both credit losses and demand shrinkage finally we show that the documented propagation mechanism constitutes a significant part of the overall bankruptcy frequency suggesting that it has measurable implications for the aggregate level

evaluating the econometric evaluations of training programs with experimental data this paper takes the results of an employment and training program thatwas run as a field experiment in which the participants were randomlyassigned into a treatment or a control group and compares these results to the estimates that might have been produced by an econometrician who evaluated the program using the same econometric procedures that have been used in the program evaluation literature this comparison shows that many of these econometric procedures fail toreplicate the experimentally determined results and suggests that researchers should be aware of the potential for specification errorsin other nonexperimental evaluations copyright 1986 by american economic association

opaque financial reports r2 and crash risk abstract we investigate the relation between the transparency of financial statements and the distribution of stock returns using earnings management as a measure of opacity we find that opacity is associated with higher r2s indicating less revelation of firm specific information moreover opaque firms are more prone to stock price crashes consistent with the prediction of the jin and myers 2006 r2 around the world new theory and new tests journal of financial economics 79 257 292 model however these relations seem to have dissipated since the passage of the sarbanes oxley act suggesting that earnings management has decreased or that firms can hide less information in the new regulatory environment

towards sustainability energy efficiency thermodynamic analysis and the two cultures abstract the uk government is committed by their 2003 energy white paper to developing a sustainable energy economy in the 21st century and to taking a lead in reducing co 2 emissions amongst the industrialised oecd countries a target of reducing these emissions to 60 of their existing figure by 2050 has been adopted the only way in which this fall could be achieved is by significantly reducing primary energy consumption to between 45 and 75 of the present demand depending on the energy technology mix this requires the widespread adoption of energy saving measures across the economy it is in this area that thermodynamic analysis can make a major contribution to identifying where the improvement potential lies energy options are inevitably constrained by thermodynamic limits on individual plant and the sector as a whole nevertheless energy policy advice to governments particularly that in the uk tends to be dominated by views from the humanities and social sciences thermodynamic ideas by contrast often appear rather esoteric to the non specialist this dichotomy is arguably a manifestation of c p snow s two cultures the apparent divide between the arts and social sciences on the one hand and engineering and the natural sciences on the other other methods for generating policy advice including that from the discipline of economics will not provide substitute insights to those of energy and exergy analysis however thermodynamic techniques such as these should not be used alone but as part of a broader interdisciplinary toolkit of sustainability assessment methods they cannot determine for example the economic consequences or the environmental ecotoxicological impact of different energy technologies

capital market imperfections and countercyclical markups theory and evidence during recessions output prices seem to rise relative to wages and raw material prices one explanation is that imperfectly competitive firms compete less aggressively during recessions that is markups of price over marginal cost are countercyclical the authors present a model of countercyclical markups based on capital market imperfections during recessions liquidity constrained firms boost short run profits by raising prices to cut their investments in market share the authors provide evidence from the supermarket industry in support of this theory during regional and macroeconomic recessions more financially constrained supermarket chains raise their prices relative to less financially constrained chains copyright 1996 by american economic association

sticky price and limited participation models of money a comparison abstract we provide new evidence that models of the monetary transmission mechanism should be consistent with at least the following facts after a contractionary monetary policy shock the aggregate price level responds very little aggregate output falls interest rates initially rise real wages decline by a modest amount and profits fall we compare the ability of sticky price and limited participation models with frictionless labor markets to account for these facts the key failing of the sticky price model lies in its counterfactual implications for profits the limited participation model can account for all the above facts but only if one is willing to assume a high labor supply elasticity 2 percent and a high markup 40 percent the shortcomings of both models reflect the absence of labor market frictions such as wage contracts or factor hoarding which dampen movements in the marginal cost of production after a monetary policy shock 1997 elsevier science b v

is there a cost channel of monetary policy transmission an investigation into the pricing behavior of 2 000 firms the paper exploits a unique panel covering some 2 000 italian manufacturing firms and 14 years of data on individual prices and individual interest rates paid on several types of debt to address the question of the existence of a channel of transmission of monetary policy operating through the effect of interest expenses on the marginal cost of production it has been argued that this mechanism may explain the dimension of the real effects of monetary policy give a rationale for the positive short run response of prices to interest rate increases the price puzzle and call for a more gradual monetary policy response to shocks we find robust evidence in favor of the presence of a cost channel of monetary policy transmission proportional to the amount of working capital held by each firm the channel is large enough to have non trivial monetary policy implications

optimal monetary policy with the cost channel in the standard new keynesian framework an optimizing policy maker does not face a trade off between stabilizing the inflation rate and stabilizing the gap between actual output and output under flexible prices an ad hoc exogenous cost push shock is typically added to the inflation equation to generate a meaningful policy problem in this paper we show that a cost push shock arises endogenously when a cost channel for monetary policy is introduced into the new keynesian model a cost channel is present when firms marginal cost depends directly on the nominal rate of interest besides providing empirical evidence for a cost channel we explore its implications for optimal monetary policy we show that its presence alters the optimal policy problem in important ways for example both the output gap and inflation are allowed to fluctuate in response to productivity and demand shocks under optimal monetary policy

the employment effects of credit market disruptions firm level evidence from the 2008 9 financial crisis this article investigates the effect of bank lending frictions on employment outcomes i construct a new data set that combines information on banking relationships and employment at 2 000 nonfinancial firms during the 2008 9 crisis the article first verifies empirically the importance of banking relationships which imply a cost to borrowers who switch lenders i then use the dispersion in lender health following the lehman crisis as a source of exogenous variation in the availability of credit to borrowers i find that credit matters firms that had precrisis relationships with less healthy lenders had a lower likelihood of obtaining a loan following the lehman bankruptcy paid a higher interest rate if they did borrow and reduced employment by more compared to precrisis clients of healthier lenders consistent with frictions deriving from asymmetric information the effects vary by firm type lender health has an economically and statistically significant effect on employment at small and medium firms but the data cannot reject the hypothesis of no effect at the largest or most transparent firms abstracting from general equilibrium effects i find that the withdrawal of credit accounts for between one third and one half of the employment decline at small and medium firms in the sample in the year

the energy efficiency gap what does it mean abstract as renewed attention has been given by policy makers to energy conservation issues it has frequently been asserted that an energy efficiency gap exists between actual and optimal energy use the critical questions is how to define the optimal level of energy efficiency this paper seeks to disentangle some confusing strands of argument that are frequently brought to bear on this question by identifying the major conceptual issues that determine the set of feasible answers we identify five separate and distinct notions of optimality the economists economic potential the technologists economic potential hypothetical potential the narrow social optimum and the true social optimum each of these has associated with it a corresponding definition of the energy efficiency gap our analysis demonstrates that necessary preconditions for identifying the right measure of the energy efficiency gap include understanding and disentangling market failure and non market failure explanations for the gradual diffusion of energy efficient technologies

trust and the provision of trade credit abstract state controlled listed firms in china receive preferential treatment when borrowing from commercial banks in contrast private controlled firms rely on informal finance and on trade credit we argue for and find evidence that private firms located in higher social trust regions use more trade credit from suppliers extend more trade credit to customers and collect receivables and pay payables more quickly these findings are enhanced for firms located in provinces with weak protection of property rights our results are robust to different measures of social trust legal environment and endogeneity overall our results show that social trust helps private firms overcome institutional difficulties in financing their activities

corporate trade credit and inventories new evidence of a trade off from accounts payable and receivable abstract trade credit is an important source of finance for firms and has been well researched but the focus has been on financial trade offs in this paper we consider the trade offs with inventories and develop a simple model that recognizes the incentives a firm faces to offer and receive trade credit our model identifies the response of accounts payable and accounts receivable to changes in the cost of inventories profitability risk and liquidity and importantly this influence operates through a production channel our results support the model and complement many existing studies focused on explaining the financial terms of trade credit