design and analysis of simulated consumer choice or allocation experiments an approach based on aggregate data the authors integrate concepts in conjoint analysis and discrete choice theory in econometrics to develop a new approach to the design and analysis of controlled consumer choice or resource allocat

time to build and capacity choice abstract this paper studies how demand uncertainty and time to build interact in affecting irreversible investment activity using impulse control methods we find the optimal timing and size of investment for a firm such as an electric utility that considers expanding its capacity in order to meet an uncertain demand when the construction lag is short uncertainty delays investment while increasing its size once it takes place however for comparatively long and realistic times to build the sensitivity to uncertainty is drastically reduced and the results can even be reversed more uncertainty can speed up investment and reduce its size

evaluating natural resource investments notwithstanding impressive advances in the theory of finance over the past 2 decades practical procedures for capital budgeting have evolved only slowly the standard technique which has remained unchanged in essentials since it was originally proposed see dean 1951 bierman and smidt 1960 derives from a simple adaptation of the fisher 1907 model of valuation under certainty under this technique expected cash flows from an investment project are discounted at a rate deemed appropriate to their risk and the resulting present value is compared with the cost of the project this standard textbook technique reflects modern theoretical developments only insofar as estimates of the discount rate may be obtained from crude application of single period asset pricing theory but see brennan 1973 bogue and roll 1974 turnbull 1977 constantinides 1978 the inadequacy of this approach to capital budgeting is widely acknowledged although not widely discussed its obvious deficiency is its the evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices it is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing and abandoning them the approach may be adapted to a wide variety of contexts outside the natural resource sector where uncertainty about future project revenues is a paramount concern

the effects of price and smoking risk information on the demand for tobacco in taiwan an empirical study this study evaluates the effects of a cigarette price increase and smoking risk information on tobacco consumption in taiwan tobacco price expenditure and an index of smoking risk information for taiwan were introduced into a central bureau of statistics cbs demand model to estimate several cigarette demand elasticity coefficients according to this model increasing the cigarette price is a more effective means of reducing cigarette consumption than disseminating more risk information in addition we found that a price rise of nt 5 per cigarette pack would cause a reduction in the consumption of domestic and imported cigarettes of 3 23 and 4 86 packs per capita respectively total per capita consumption of cigarettes would be reduced annually by 8 09 packs 7 56 despite this reduction in cigarette consumption the increase in cigarette price would at the same time lead to a significant net increase in tax revenue to the taiwan government

social and political responses to ecological tax reform in europe an introduction to the special issue this paper introduces the special issue on the policies for ecological tax reform assessment of social responses petras project about responses to ecological tax reform etr in europe although etr is widely accepted to be a policy with desirable effects its implementation has been limited by problems of political acceptability the project aimed to address the question of how to make such a policy more acceptable it is the first study to examine in depth the thinking of members of the general public about the etr policies and is also the first international comparative study of the thinking of ordinary business people about etr policies the petras project methodology was based around the use of interviews and focus groups to inform the assessment of social responses to etr policies and the development of improved designs for them a number of issues emerged relating to awareness trust understanding of the purpose visibility incentives regressivity levels of taxation terminology communication about etr and the use of alternative instruments together with these similarities a pattern of differences between the countries can also be seen the final section of this paper introduces the national studies described in the following papers

analyzing public preferences and increasing acceptability for the renewable portfolio standard in korea abstract in order to respond to the challenge of climate change similar to other countries korea has announced various policies to vitalize the development and uptake of renewable energy the renewable portfolio standard rps is the most striking example of a policy in this area this study employs a conjoint survey and bayesian mixed logit model to analyze consumer preferences for specific attributes of the rps policy it analyzes households marginal willingness to pay mwtp for the rps with specific attributes and simulates the degree of household acceptability of the policy through a scenario analysis comparison between costs and benefits of implementing the policy is also attempted by analyzing the households mwtp with the actual transition expense of rps implementation incurred by electricity supply companies the simulation results provide implications for improving rps policy implementation households consider the creation of new jobs as the most important policy attribute followed by increase in electricity prices damage to forests reduction in co 2 emissions and length of power outages moreover the korean household is willing to accept an increase of up to 1 39 in its electricity prices relative to 2012 and the median mwtp of each household for rps implementation is krw 734 99 month usd 0 67 month

public acceptance for environmental taxes self interest environmental and distributional concerns abstract while strongly recommended by economists it has often been politically difficult to impose taxes on externalities there is a substantial literature on public attitudes towards environmental taxes there has however been few comprehensive attempts to understand attitudes towards environmental taxes the main research question in this paper is which factors influence support for fuel taxation we propose a model of attitudes towards fuel taxation and test this model as well as more specific hypotheses using data from a representative survey of the adult norwegian population our results suggest that support for fuel taxation is best predicted by beliefs about environmental consequences followed by beliefs about consequences to others beliefs about consequences to self self interest is the factor that explains the least variation in support for fuel taxation the academically interesting result that support cannot be well explained without capturing a broad range of motivational factors is also highly policy relevant it implies that there is no magic formula for increasing public support for environmental taxes there are however some issues which can be addressed trust in how well the government spends the revenue and the perception that taxation does very little to change behaviour and thus to reduce environmental problems

green taxes in a post paris world are millions of nays inevitable turning the paris agreement s greenhouse gas emissions pledges into domestic policies is the next challenge for governments we address the question of the acceptability of cost effective climate policy in a real voting setting first we analyze voting behavior in a large ballot on energy taxes rejected in switzerland in 2015 by more than 2 million people energy taxes were aimed at completely replacing the current value added tax we examine the determinants of voting and find that distributional and competitiveness concerns reduced the acceptability of energy taxes along with the perception of ineffectiveness most people would have preferred tax revenues to be allocated for environmental purposes second at the same time of the ballot we tested the acceptability of alternative designs of a carbon tax with a choice experiment survey on a representative sample of the swiss population survey respondents are informed about environmental distributional and competitiveness effects of each carbon tax design these impacts are estimated with a computable general equilibrium model this original setting generates a series of novel results providing information on the expected environmental effectiveness of carbon taxes reduces the demand for environmental earmarking making distributional effects salient generates an important demand for progressive designs e g social cushioning or recycling via lump sum transfers the case of lump sum recycling is particularly striking it is sufficient to show its desirable distributional properties to make it one of the most preferred designs which corresponds to a completely novel result in the literature we show that providing detailed information on the functioning of environmental taxes may contribute to close both the gap between acceptability ex ante and ex post and the gap between economists prescriptions and the preferences of the general public

do expenditures on tobacco control decrease smoking prevalence effectiveness of tobacco control programmes in reducing smoking prevalence during 2001 to 2005 is examined tobacco control spending is found to exert no significant effects on smoking prevalence across the 50 states cigarette prices are found to lower prevalence of daily smokers but exert no effect on nondaily smoking prevalence several reasons are suggested for why these results might conflict with previous research these include that most previous studies examined two states california and massachusetts with long standing tobacco control programmes and that most studies examined periods in which many of the states in their samples did not actively fund their programmes another reason may be that unlike most previous studies this study controls for the possibility that tobacco control spending is endogenous when for example states exhibiting relatively low smoking prevalence are also states with relatively high distaste for smoking and accordingly fund tobacco control programmes more generous

the effectiveness of anti smoking legislation a review abstract this survey focuses on government efforts to curb the use of undesirable goods notably tobacco products we synthesize the economics literature and examine the effectiveness of government curbs on tobacco consumption through non price controls such as bans on cigarette advertising health warnings and workplace smoking bans and price measures or higher prices through higher taxes this literature review is unique in that we do not merely aim to provide a summary of the literature rather our main focus is to draw conclusions from the literature regarding the effectiveness of alternate policy measures across countries in checking smoking and to provide directions suggestions for extending the scope of government intervention to other tobacco products

is fairness blind the effect of framing on preferences for effort sharing rules this paper uses a choice experiment to study citizens preferences for effort sharing rules for reducing carbon dioxide emissions for a given global cost and level of emission reduction we study the willingness to pay for various rules that imply different distributions of the cost between eu the us china and africa the focus of this paper is on the use of two different treatments one where the respondents were informed about the country or country group names and one where the names were replaced with anonymous labels a d this allows us to test whether people s preferences for effort sharing rules depend on the framing of the problem we find that the ranking of the rules and the strength of the preferences are not significantly different between the two treatments and hence we find no evidence of ingroup bias in preferences for effort sharing rules c 2011 elsevier b v all rights reserved less

on the self interested use of equity in international climate negotiations abstract we discuss self interested uses of equity arguments in international climate negotiations using unique data from a world wide survey of agents involved in international climate policy we show that the perceived support of different equity rules by regions may be explained by the ranking of their economic costs despite being self interested equity arguments may be perceived as being used for different reasons for example out of fairness considerations or in order to facilitate negotiations consistent with experimental and behavioral studies on fairness perceptions we find that individuals are more likely to state reasons with positive attributes if they evaluate their own region or regions that support the individual s personally preferred equity rule negotiators perceive the use of equity by regions as less influenced by pressure from interest groups

what is fair an experimental guide to climate negotiations abstract international commitments to reduce emissions must be negotiated between countries in a manner considered to be fair or equitable while the burden sharing principles commonly advocated in climate negotiations reflect different views of what constitutes a fair way to distribute the abatement burden their use can also be strategically motivated to legitimise a specific bargaining position in this context using a threshold public good game with a climate change framing real monetary incentives and drawing on a sample of individuals from the united states the european union china india and south africa this multi country study examines the degree to which the use of burden sharing principles reflects material self interest in an initial treatment participants who represent the country of which they are a national choose between various burden sharing principles in a subsequent treatment drawing from rawls veil of ignorance participants are unaware of which country they represent and are randomly allocated to a country after making their decision a comparison of participants choices across these two treatments indicates that the use of the historical and future polluter pays rules by american and chinese participants is consistent with material self interest or in other words self interested use of burden sharing principles

a long march perspective on tobacco use in canada in this paper we present a model of tobacco demand in canada with a view to establishing if price and tax policy on the one hand or educational regulatory and demographic influences on the other have been primarily responsible for the substantial drop in consumption since 1980 we address some methodological and econometric issues that have escaped the attention of some analysts to this point using data for the period 1972 2000 we find that non price developments have had a strong deterrent effect and that the price elasticity of demand is now lower than even the recently obtained low estimates propose these findings have strong public policy content jel classification i12 c13 c22 une perspective de longue haleine sur l usage du tabac au canada dans ce memoire on presente un modele de la demande de tabac au canada en vue d etablir laquelle des deux strategies d une part la politique de prix et d imposition de taxes et d autre part les influences de l education de la reglementation ainsi que les changements demographiques a ete davantage responsable de la chute importante dans la consommation du tabac depuis 1980 le texte examine certains problemes methodologiques et econometriques qui ont jusqu ici echappea l attention des analystes a l aide de donnees pour la periode 1972 2000 on montre que les facteurs qui n ont rien a voir avec le prix ont eu un fort effet dissuasif et que l elasticite de la demande par rapport au prix est maintenant plus faible que les faibles elasticites suggerees par certaines etudes recentes ces resultats ont une grande importance pour la politique publique

are cigarette bans really good economic policy this study investigates the quarterly relationship between the quantity of cigarettes sold real disposable income per capita and the relative price level of cigarettes in canada careful attention is paid to the nonstationarity of the data and the dynamic specification of the model it is concluded that cigarette demand is extremely insensitive to price and income changes this is evidence of the large consumer surplus smokers enjoy and the large revenue increasing potential of a cigarette tax increase policy as opposed to cigarette bans

toward a new conception of the environment competitiveness relationship accepting a fixed trade off between environmental regulation and competitiveness unnecessarily raises costs and slows down environmental progress studies finding high environmental compliance costs have traditionally focused on static cost impacts ignoring any offsetting productivity benefits from innovation they typically overestimated compliance costs neglected innovation offsets and disregarded the affected industry s initial competitiveness rather than simply adding to cost properly crafted environmental standards can trigger innovation offsets allowing companies to improve their resource productivity shifting the debate from pollution control to pollution prevention was a step forward it is now necessary to make the next step and focus on resource productivity

an empirical analysis of milk addiction we show the estimable rational addiction model tends to yield spurious evidence in favor of the rational addiction hypothesis when aggregate data are used direct application of the canonical model yields results seemingly indicative that non addictive commodities such as milk eggs and oranges are rationally addictive monte carlo simulation demonstrates that such results are likely to obtain whenever the commodity under scrutiny exhibits high serial correlation or when even a small amount of the variation in prices is endogenous or when overidentified instrumental variables estimators are used or when commonly imposed restrictions are employed we conclude that time series data will often be insufficient to differentiate rational addiction from serial correlation in the consumption series

technology choice under emission regulation uncertainty in international container shipping abstract we present a real options approach to evaluate technology and capacity choices under regulatory uncertainty our two phase regime switching model includes the option of investing in different technologies as well as a charter and layup option respectively for a base case version of this model we derive an analytical solution before studying the effect of regulatory uncertainty in a numerical extension that relaxes certain restrictive assumptions we then describe three regulatory regimes an emissions cap an emissions tax and a cap and trade market and compare how effectively each reduces emissions applying the model to maritime container shipping we develop insights on the optimal technology choice for reducing sox emissions we find that regulatory uncertainty can increase not only project values but also owned capacity from a regulatory perspective an emissions cap reduces emissions more effectively whereas an emissions tax reduces the cost of regulation the cap and trade market emerges in many respects as superior to an emissions tax finally we show that setting the emissions cap level or deciding on the level above which an emissions tax or emissions trade apply is critical because reduction in total industry emissions are not necessarily continuous

the determinant of production entry and exit model on financing behavior this study seeks for equity debt values and the relevant potential firm value with financing or not when the real options approach is assessed the paper deals with the following relative problems 1 the assessment rule of decision whether to stop production or not 2 whether the dis investment cost or salvage could reflect the production scale 3 whether the rate of capital cost or the rate of return in different stages could reflect the suitable risk premium 4 when the investment cost exit cost and salvage are the linear functions of production volume and follow the geometric brownian motion to analyze the optimum external financing behavior and to decide the production thresholds of production entry and exit

estimating price elasticities when there is smuggling the sensitivity of smoking to price in canada a central parameter for evaluating tax policies is the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes but in many countries this parameter is difficult to estimate reliably due to widespread smuggling which significantly biases estimates using legal sales data an excellent example is canada where widespread smuggling in the early 1990s in response to large tax increases biases upwards the response of legal cigarette sales to price we surmount this problem through two approaches excluding the provinces and years where smuggling was greatest and using household level expenditure data on smoking these two approaches yield a tightly estimated elasticity in the range of 0 45 to 0 47 we also show that the sensitivity of smoking to price is much larger among lower income canadians in the context of recent behavioral models of smoking whereby higher taxes reduce unwanted smoking among price sensitive populations this finding suggests that cigarette taxes may not be as regressive as previously suggested finally we show that price increases on cigarettes do not increase and may actually decrease consumption of alcohol as a result smuggling of cigarettes may have raised consumption of alcohol as well

paying for mitigation a multiple country study a contingent valuation study conducted in china sweden and the united states was used to investigate citizens willingness to pay wtp for reducing co2 emissions we find that a majority of the respondents in all three countries believe that the mean global temperature has increased over the last 100 years and that humans are responsible for the increase the share of americans that believes these statements is smaller and a relatively larger share of americans also believes that nothing can be done to stop climate change sweden has the highest wtp while china has the lowest jel q51 q54

a markup interpretation of optimal investment rules we re examine the basic investment problem of deciding when to incur a sunk cost to obtain a stochastically fluctuating benefit the optimal investment rule satisfies a trade off between a larger versus a later net benefit we show that this trade off is closely analogous to the standard trade off for the pricing decision of a firm that faces a downward sloping demand curve we reinterpret the optimal investment rule as a markup formula involving an elasticity that has exactly the same form as the formula for a firm s optimal markup of price over marginal cost this is illustrated with several examples consider what is probably the most basic irreversible investment problem a project can be undertaken that requires a sunk cost c and yields a benefit v the cost is known and constant over time but the benefit measured as the present value at the time the cost is incurred fluctuates as an autonomous markov process vt with continuous sample paths time is continuous and

the impact of delivery lags on irreversible investment under uncertainty abstract we consider the valuation and rational exercise of irreversible investment opportunities in the presence of revenue uncertainty and delivery lags in order to capture supply side market imperfections in the markets for investment goods we assume that the lag depends on the revenue process faced by the investor we show that such imperfections have a pronounced decelerating impact on rational investment demand as they may increase the value of waiting in excess of the exercise payoff even for projects which otherwise would be perceived as highly remunerative we also consider the comparative static properties of the optimal investment policy and its value and demonstrate that typically increased uncertainty decreases the investment incentives by increasing the value of waiting

entry strategies of partnerships versus conventional firms from 1997 to 2001 the number of nonemployer businesses mostly partnerships grew faster than conventional firms in the united states a country with the mildest asymmetries between the two types of enterprises with respect to taxation administrative entry barriers and other institutional aspects partnerships are smaller than conventional firms and their different speeds of net entry could be the result of internal organization that makes them swifter and better equipped to be fast growing industries in a continuous time stochastic environment with sunk costs we model entry as a growth option partnerships and conventional firms display specific patterns in terms of output price and size in that they appear to react in diverse fashions to market uncertainty in most cases the partnership is less risky and better suited to enter under conditions of high volatility as between 1997 and 2001 in the united states

political orientation environmental values and climate change beliefs and attitudes an empirical cross country analysis abstract based on unique data from representative computer based surveys among more than 3400 citizens this paper empirically examines the determinants of several climate change beliefs and attitudes in three countries which are key players in international climate policy namely the usa germany as the largest country in the european union and china our econometric analysis implies that political orientation in the usa is by far more relevant for general climate change beliefs and beliefs in anthropogenic climate change than in germany and china furthermore us and german citizens with a conservative but not green identification significantly less often support publicly financed climate policy while us and german respondents with a social green identification and chinese respondents belonging to the communist party have a significantly higher willingness to pay a price premium for climate friendly products however our econometric analysis overall reveals that environmental values which are measured by a new ecological paradigm nep scale are the major factors for climate change beliefs and attitudes in all three countries and thus play an even more dominant role than political orientation in addition environmental values weaken the differences in several climate change beliefs and attitudes between a right wing and a left wing identification these interaction effects between political orientation and the nep scale are especially strong in the usa only relevant for the support of publicly financed climate policy in germany and negligible in china our estimation results suggest alternative strategies such as specific communication campaigns in order to reduce the climate change skepticism in conservative and right wing circles in the usa and to increase the support of climate policies among such population groups

the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the level of investment conventional wisdom has it that increasing price or exchange rate uncertainty will depress investment using the dixit pindyck model we find that there are situations where this will happen and situations where it does not there are threshold effects which allows us to identify when rising volatility would increase or decrease investment and also to identify which types of industries would gain and which would suffer from a move to fixed exchange rates this is important for monetary union in europe since it is likely that even if trade is insensitive to exchange rate volatility investment with its longer horizon will be affected textbook theories of investment under uncertainty present a rather oversimplified rule for a firm deciding whether to invest or not if the project s expected net present value npv is positive the firm invests otherwise it does not this implies that if the investment is reversible the firm will simply disinvest if the npv turns negative but if investment is irreversible then if a firm decides not to invest it will never invest this is not a realistic approach given uncertainty firms often find it convenient to wait rather than to commit themselves one way or another waiting is therefore a proper alternative to investing or not investing and firms will be confronted with an invest wait do not invest decision rather than an invest do not invest one dixit and pindyck 1994 have developed a model in which the option value of an investment project is evaluated to represent the value of waiting that option value then becomes part of the investment costs because once an irreversible investment is made the possibility of exercising this option to invest later on when better information is available has been lost thus the decision rule is still invest if npv 0 otherwise do not invest but the npv now represents the present value of the expected revenues less the value of the option to invest later less the present value of any other investment costs in this paper we extend the dixit pindyck model for varying degrees of uncertainty and price drift and specifically for the case where that uncertainty is caused by exchange rate volatility such an extension is important not only because it is a new development but also because we need to understand how monetary union will affect investment expenditures in europe for simplicity we assume the domestic prices are fixed and that the only uncertainty is in the exchange rate and hence the domestic value of foreign currency revenues that leaves us with various problems the first is to determine the threshold at which exchange rate price uncertainty is sufficient to affect investment adversely second under what conditions does that uncertainty actually reduce investment third do exchange rate misalignments or exchange rate volatility damage investment more we show that answers to such questions can be c55

the investment strategies for a dynamic supply chain under stochastic demands abstract a successful supply chain management scm should aim to maximize the net present value of joint profits along the supply chain however the volatile market conditions cause the future cash flows along the supply chain more difficult to anticipate to obtain higher supply chain value the supplier and the retailer should cooperatively determine the optimal entry time this paper proposes a two stage dynamic optimization model by using a real option approach and then performs the sensitivity analyses for the option value and the investment threshold the impacts of some critical factors including the growth rate and the volatility of demand shock sunk cost and relating operational costs cost rates fix costs holding costs of inventory and shipping costs are investigated

public acceptability of personal carbon trading and carbon tax abstract climate change is one of the greatest challenges confronting the international community requiring action to achieve deep cuts in carbon emissions the implementation of potentially uncomfortable but necessary policy measures is though critically dependent upon public acceptability this paper reports a novel application of stated preference techniques to explore the influence of key design attributes on the acceptability of a personal carbon trading scheme in isolation and when compared to a carbon tax illustrative forecasts from the models developed indicate the importance of design attributes especially the basis of the initial permit allocation for personal carbon trading and the use to which revenues are put for carbon tax results indicate that the best scheme designs could be acceptable to a majority of respondents

the behavioural economics of climate change this paper attempts to bring some central insights from behavioural economics into the economics of climate change in particular it discusses i implications of prospect theory the equity premium puzzle and time inconsistent preferences in the choice of discount rate used in climate change cost assessments and ii the implications of various kinds of social preferences for the outcome of climate negotiations several reasons are presented for why it appears advisable to choose a substantially lower social discount rate than the average return on investments it also seems likely that taking social preferences into account increases the possibilities of obtaining international agreements compared to the standard model however there are also effects going in the opposite direction and the importance of sanctions is emphasized

what determines urban households willingness to pay for co2 emission reductions in turkey a contingent valuation survey abstract this paper explores turkish urban households willingness to pay wtp for co2 emission reductions expected to result from improvements in power production a face to face questionnaire with a contingent valuation cv module prepared using the double bounded dichotomous choice elicitation framework was administered to 2422 respondents representative of urban turkey a developing country with low but rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions the determinants of wtp were identified by considering not only the impact of standard socio economic factors but also the effects of environmental knowledge attitudes and behaviour the relevance of the identity of the collection agent national versus international institutions in terms of trust people have towards them and the degree of perceived participation of others in the realization of the project our study confirms the existing literature in demonstrating that wtp figures reported by young and educated people that are active on environmental issues and who also possess material security and environmental knowledge are more likely to be high however their willingness to make contributions is hampered significantly by their belief that their fellow citizens will not contribute and the general lack of trust in institutions overall this study may be taken as a call to eliminate governance related uncertainties in climate change deals

a future for carbon taxes abstract carbon taxes have been frequently advocated as a cost effective instrument for reducing emissions however in the practice of environmental policies only six countries have implemented taxes based on the carbon content of the energy products in this paper we evaluate carbon taxes with regard to their competitiveness distributional and environmental impacts the evidence shows that carbon taxes may be an interesting policy option and that their main negative impacts may be compensated through the design of the tax and the use of the generated fiscal revenues

a choice experiment on fuel taxation and earmarking in norway abstract pigouvian taxes are efficient but unpopular among voters and hence often politically infeasible earmarking of revenues has been widely reported to increase public support for taxes but earmarking is generally not the most efficient use of the revenues this trade off between efficiency and political feasibility is the motivation for our primary research objective to quantify the effect of earmarking on support for fuel tax rises our secondary research objective is to investigate why earmarking increases support using data from a representative sample of the norwegian voter population n 1147 we estimate models of voter preferences for fuel taxes using logistic regression models our results show that in the absence of earmarking the majority of voters would like to reduce fuel taxes but earmarking the revenues for environmental measures has a substantial effect on voter support for fuel tax increases garnering a majority for increases of up to 15 above present levels further analysis indicates that a prime reason why earmarking for environmental measures is popular is that it increases the perceived environmental effectiveness of the tax and hence its legitimacy as an environmental rather than a fiscal policy instrument

the german energy transition as a regime shift abstract in this paper i use the resilience framework to interpret the project of transforming the german energy system into a renewable energy sources res based system the so called energiewende as a regime shift this regime shift comprises several transformations which are currently altering the technological political and economic system structure to build my argument i first sketch how technological political and economic developments reduced the resilience of the conventional fossil nuclear energy regime and created a new res regime second i depict recent changes in german public discourse and energy policy as the shift to the res regime third i highlight the challenges involved with increasing the resilience of the res regime in particular sufficient resilience of the electricity transmission grid appears to be crucial for facilitating the transformation of the whole energy system

on self interested preferences for burden sharing rules an econometric analysis for the costs of energy policy measures abstract this paper examines the acceptance of burden sharing rules that refer to the costs of the german energy transition which is one of the most challenging and disputed national climate and energy policy measures based on data from a comprehensive survey of more than 2200 citizens the empirical analysis reveals that the polluter pays rule has by far the highest support compared with the ability to pay rule and especially compared with the equal pay rule which is widely refused in the sample since the distribution of the costs of the german energy transition is largely in line with a polluter pays rule its strong support seems to contribute to the high acceptance of the energy transition at all the main result of our econometric analysis with multivariate binary and ordered probit models is that not only some attitudinal factors like environmental values and political identification but especially economic self interest is relevant since equivalent energy expenditures have a significantly negative effect on the support of the polluter pays rule and especially equivalent income has a significantly negative effect on the preference for the ability to pay rule these results suggest that the use of distributional arguments for the criticism of energy policy measures is not necessarily value driven on the basis of real perceptions of distributive justice but can also be strategically motivated to prevent and combat economically unfavorable measures together with the strong general support of the polluter pays rule these results suggest that a sharp reorientation of the german energy transition due to distributional arguments is not very useful

public preferences for carbon tax attributes the impacts of climate change are already visible throughout the world recognizing the threats posed by climate change the durban platform the 17th session of the conference of parties cop 17 underscores that the global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation and ambitious action by all countries a crucial starting point for the design of effective and publicly acceptable policies is to explore public preferences for climate policy instruments using a choice experiment this study investigates public preferences for carbon tax attributes in a developing country context the results account for heterogeneity in preferences and show that turkish people prefer a carbon tax with a progressive cost distribution rather than one with a regressive cost distribution the private cost has a negative effect on the probability of choosing the tax earmarking carbon tax revenues increases the public acceptability of the tax moreover there is a preference for a carbon tax that promotes public awareness of climate change

a model of sequential investment abstract this paper specifies a model of a two stage sequential investment where the stages take time to complete it presents algebraic solutions for an individual firm s optimal sequential investment with costless suspension without suspension in the intermediate case of costly suspension and for aggregate investment with suspension the first stage trigger is below the second stage trigger for sufficiently long lags and high levels of output price uncertainty thus the firm may carry out exploratory investment we also evaluate the comparative statics of investment and show how the patterns of project costs and lags affect the incentive to invest

modeling preference heterogeneity in stated choice data an analysis for public goods generated by agriculture stated choice models based on the random utility framework are becoming increasingly popular in the applied economics literature the need to account for respondents preference heterogeneity in such models has motivated researchers in agricultural environmental health and transport economics to apply random parameter logit and latent class models in most of the published literature these models incorporate heterogeneity in preferences through the systematic component of utility an alternative approach is to investigate heterogeneity through the random component of utility and covariance heterogeneity models are one means of doing this in this article we compare these alternative ways of incorporating preference heterogeneity in stated choice models and evaluate the sensitivity of estimated welfare measures to which approach is selected we find that a latent class approach fits our data best but all the models perform well in terms of out of sample predictions finally we discuss what criteria a researcher can use to decide which approach is most appropriate for a given data set

the demand for earmarking results from a focus group study abstract environmental taxes might be efficient but plans to impose new taxes are often met with fierce public resistance in order to design environmental taxes that are both efficient and acceptable to the public so that they can be politically feasible it is important to understand public attitudes towards environmental taxes we conduct a focus group study in norway to extend the current knowledge on this issue we find less general resistance to taxation as a policy instrument and seemingly more trust in government than what has been reported in similar studies from other countries the participants are however very skeptical and do not see the point of using the revenues from an environmental tax to reduce other taxes such as the payroll tax instead they express a very strong preference for earmarking the revenues for environmental purposes they also call for more information about environmental taxes in particular on how the revenues are spent providing more information including what the revenues are spent on irrespective of whether they are earmarked or not would seem to provide a relatively cheap and possibly effective way to increase the public acceptability of new or increased environmental taxes

developing real option game models by mixing concepts from both game theoretic analysis and real options theory an investment decision in a competitive market can be seen as a game between firms as firms implicitly take into account other firms reactions to their own investment actions we review two decades of real option game models suggesting which critical problems have been solved by considering game theory and which significant problems have not been yet adequately addressed we provide some insights on the plausible empirical applications or shortfalls in applications to date and suggest some promising avenues for future research

entry and exit decisions based on a discount factor approach abstract entry and exit decisions under price uncertainty are discussed by a discount factor approach to investment the approach makes it possible to express the value of the firm as a function of a set of trigger prices at which investment takes place and to determine the optimal policy by simple maximization starting with a standard entry exit model by dixit 1989 entry and exit decisions under uncertainty journal of political economy 97 3 620 638 the paper expands to construction and scrapping decisions investment lags diminishing production capacity and limits to the number of lay up periods economic implications are investigated using experimental data and empirical shipping data

what is a fair co2 tax increase on fair emission reductions in the transport sector we examine how individual preferences for fair reductions of carbon dioxide co2 emissions affect the support for increases in the co2 tax on gasoline and diesel we assume that people not only care about their own material welfare but also have preferences for fairness in policy design and we explore the implications using original data from a mail questionnaire sent to a representative sample of the swedish population the main result is that fairness in policy design does matter those respondents who adhere to a fairness principle tend to be relatively more positive to increases in the co2 tax one possible explanation for this result is that there is a relatively high degree of reciprocity regarding the origin of emissions and the fairness regarding who should bear the burden of co2 reductions via a split sample analysis we also find that the relative importance of fairness principles is dependent upon whether one uses a car often or not this sheds light on the potential goal conflict between the importance of fairness principles and self interest in the form of a need for private car transportation

can carbon taxes be progressive abstract most studies have assessed the distributional impact of carbon taxes through their effects on commodity prices alone while ignoring their impact on individual welfare brought about by changes in factor prices yet the remunerations of capital and labor are not affected by these taxes similarly and their shares in earned incomes are not uniform across households this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the incidence of carbon taxes on inequality by considering simultaneously the commodity and the income channels we propose a decomposition of the change in individual welfare metrics then we develop a general equilibrium model to assess the impact of carbon taxes on factor and commodity prices and subsequently their distributional impact on households using the lorenz and concentration curves and the gini index our results suggest that changes in factor prices and changes in commodity prices especially those of energy commodities have opposing effects on inequality carbon taxes tend to reduce inequality through the changes in factor prices and tend to increase inequality through the changes in commodity prices hence we find a non monotonic u shaped relationship between carbon taxes and inequality our results suggest that the traditional approach of assessing the impact of carbon taxes on inequality through changes in commodity prices alone may be misleading the findings cast light on the desirability of using both channels in the assessment of carbon taxes on inequality

using discrete choice models with experimental design data to forecast consumer demand for a unique cultural event an approach is developed to forecast participation in unique events with long gestation periods experimental observations of choice are derived for conjoint measurement type multiattribute alternatives that describe possible event configurations the choice data are analyzed by means of discrete choice econometric models a multinomial logit choice model is applied to forecast the choice of attendance at various types of international expositions the empirical work was part of the planning efforts undertaken to investigate the potential demand for an international exposition to be held in eastern australia in conjunction with the australian 1988 bicentennial celebrations

the equity efficiency trade off in environmental policy evidence from stated preferences the design of environmental policy raises several equity issues in particular the distribution of benefits and costs at the same time it has often been argued that there is a trade off in environmental policy between equity and efficiency which brings these issues firmly to the attention of environmental economics in this paper we use a simple choice experiment to elicit individual preferences over equity efficiency trade offs in the context of two environmental problems local air pollution and global climate change we find that equity matters to people as much as efficiency does in the design and delivery of environmental policy

flexibility premium of emissions permits abstract investments in abatement technology are often characterised by irreversibility and significant implementation lags whereas emissions permits can be traded at any time as such abatement and emissions permit trading systems are hardly perfect substitutes we formally study the flexibility of emissions permits and propose a unified framework to rationalise the impact of both investment divestment lags and irreversibility in relation to the price of emissions permits using option pricing concepts we reformulate the technology adoption problem in terms of the technology s characteristics irreversibility and implementation lags and offer a conceptual quantification of the flexibility premium of emissions permits

harvesting and recovery decisions under uncertainty abstract a stochastic forest rotation model in the faustmann tradition is presented and exemplified the model combines harvesting decisions with the potential to recover or clean up to restore the land after very unfavorable evolutions of the stochastic growth process uncertainty is shown to have a generally ambiguous effect on the optimal choice of investment strategy it is also shown how such models can be related to theory of optimal inventory control

how wrong can you be implications of incorrect utility function specification for welfare measurement in choice experiments despite the vital role of the utility function in welfare measurement the implications of working with incorrect utility specifications have been largely neglected in the choice experiments literature this paper addresses the importance of specification with a special emphasis on the effects of mistaken assumptions about the marginal utility of income monte carlo experiments were conducted using different functional forms of utility to generate simulated choices multi nomial logit and mixed logit models were then estimated on these choices under correct and incorrect assumptions about the true underlying utility function estimated willingness to pay measures from these choice modeling results are then compared with the equivalent measures directly calculated from the true utility specifications results show that for the parameter values and functional forms considered a continuous quadratic or a discrete linear attribute specification is a good option regardless of the true effects the attribute has on utility we also find that mistaken assumptions about preferences over costs magnify attribute mis specification effects

capacity optimization under uncertainty the impact of operational time lags time lags in switching operational modes are typical in the manufacturing and power sectors but are not treated in most real options models in this paper we consider a firm that has the opportunity to suspend and to resume production infinitely many times subject to a time lag after each startup decision we contribute to the literature by allowing the firm to determine its level of installed capacity in conjunction with its optimal investment timing we find that an increase in the length of the time lag results in an increase in the optimal capacity level capacity optimization also interacts with the length of the time lag to affect investment timing and the triggers to suspend and resume production thereby weakening the result about hysteresis from a standard real options model under the assumption of a fixed level of capacity a longer lag speeds up the decision to resume operations due to a positive upside to the revenue but delays the suspension of operations by contrast with capacity optimization a longer time lag results in a larger capacity choice which can indirectly delay the investment decision and the timing to resume operations this indirect effect dominates when the level of market uncertainty is low and the time lag is initially small

carbon control policies competitiveness and border tax adjustments abstract several propositions have recently been made to use border tax adjustments btas to address the loss of competitiveness induced by unilateral stringent domestic pollution control policies this paper explores in a general equilibrium framework the sectoral and welfare implications of a unilateral domestic ghg control policy combined with a bta scheme using the canadian economy as an illustration we assess the extent to which btas achieve their objectives and analyze the impacts of different methods of recycling the bta proceeds to support domestic industries our simulation results suggest that imposing btas on the imports of non fossil and energy intensive products reduces or removes completely the negative competitiveness impacts that domestic industries suffer from the use of the proceeds of the btas to support domestic energy intensive industries improves their competitiveness and more importantly in some cases overprotects them as it allows them to even increase their output in comparison to the benchmark without emissions control our results also shed light on the existence of heterogeneity in the composition of energy intensive industries as far as the recycling method of the bta proceeds is concerned energy intensive industries that are more oriented toward the domestic market are better off with the recycling of the bta proceeds towards gross output than towards exports alone finally abstracting from the environmental benefits of reduced emissions we find that a bta entails a higher welfare cost to households

motor fuel prices in turkey the world s most expensive motor fuel gasoline diesel and lpg is sold most likely in the republic of turkey this paper investigates the key issues related to the motor fuel prices in turkey first of all the paper analyses the main reason behind high prices namely motor fuel taxes in turkey then it estimates the elasticity of motor fuel demand in turkey using an econometric analysis the findings indicate that motor fuel demand in turkey is quite inelastic and therefore not responsive to price increases caused by an increase in either pre tax prices or taxes therefore fuel market in turkey is open to opportunistic behaviour by firms through excessive profits and the government through excessive taxes besides the paper focuses on the impact of high motor fuel prices on road transport associated activities including the pattern of passenger transportation motorization rate fuel use total kilometers travelled and co2 emissions from road transportation the impact of motor fuel prices on income distribution in turkey and turkish public opinion about high motor fuel prices are also among the subjects investigated in the course of the study

recreation demand models with taste differences over people we estimate random parameter logit models of anglers choice of fishing site the models generalize logit by allowing coefficients to vary randomly over anglers rather than being fixed the models do not exhibit the restrictive independence from irrelevant alternatives property of logit and can represent any substitution pattern estimation explicitly accounts for the fact that the variation in coefficients over anglers induces correlation in unobserved utility over trips by the same angler willingness to pay for improved fish stock and the value to anglers of specific sites are calculated from the models and compared with the estimates obtained from a standard logit model

what do we know about investment under uncertainty recent theoretical developments relating to investment under uncertainty have highlighted the importance of irreversibility for the timing of investment expenditures and their expected returns this has subsequently stimulated a growing empirical literature which examines uncertainty and threshold effects on investment behaviour this paper presents a review of this literature a variety of methods have been used to investigate the empirical implication of irreversibility in investment the majority focusing on the relationship between investment flows and proxy measures of uncertainty a general conclusion is that increased uncertainty at both aggregate and disaggregate levels leads to lower investment rates this suggests that there is an irreversibility effect under which greater uncertainty raises the value of the call option to delay a commitment to investment this effect appears to dominate any positive impact on investment arising from the fact that greater uncertability under certain circumstances increases the marginal profitability of capital the methods used raise a number of issues which call into question the reliability of the findings and these are addressed in the paper however if such irreversibility effects are present then their omission from traditional investment models casts doubt on the efficacy of such specifications jel classification d81 d92 e22

value based trading of real assets in shipping under stochastic freight rates the article uses a real options valuation model with stochastic freight rates to investigate market efficiency and the economics of switching between the dry bulk and the tanker markets in international shipping a dry bulk carrier is replaced with a tanker when the expected net present value of such a switch is optimal from a real options based decision rule depending on the development of the markets a reversal may take place later the cost and demand parameters upon which the decisions to switch are made including the stochastic characteristics of freight rates are estimated from an empirical analysis that is updated every week throughout a 12 year time period from 1993 to 2005 the second hand market for bulk ships seems to have been efficient most of these years in the sense that market switching usually did not pay off with one major exception it seemed profitable in expectation to leave the dry bulk market and enter the tanker market over a significant period of time shortly after the millenn

citizens preferences on nuclear and renewable energy sources evidence from turkey abstract based on data from a face to face survey of 2422 residents from urban turkey this paper presents an analysis of citizens preferences in turkey on nuclear and renewable energy sources findings indicate that opposition to nuclear power was strong and only a small number of respondents endorsed it by listing it in their top two choices conversely almost two thirds of the sample endorsed investment in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar and only a small minority was opposed to it econometric analyses revealed that knowledge of the climate change problem was a common factor that explained endorsement of both nuclear and renewables yet high levels of concern for the environment and a negative perception regarding its future differentiated the endorsers of renewables from those of nuclear energy endorsers of nuclear energy were found to be males who were knowledgeable about climate change and engaged in environmental issues but less concerned about the environment and optimistic about its future nuclear opponents on the other hand were found to be concerned about the environment pessimistic about its future and not fully relying on technology

time to build and investment the paper investigates the effect of the time to build technology on investment dynamics it explains the positive autocorrelation of investment by showing that investment is serially correlated once the time to build technology is taken into account the paper also shows that the time to build technology can explain a substantial portion of the variation in aggregate investment data using estimated marginal q the paper illustrates that investment responds asymmetrically to different levels of q a fact in favor of the irreversibility argument