bayesian inference for the mover stayer model in continuous time with an application to labour market transition data this paper presents bayesian inference procedures for the continuous time mover stayer model applied to labour market transition data collected in discrete time these methods allow us to derive the probability of embeddability of the discrete time modelling with the continuous time one a special emphasis is put on two alternative procedures namely the importance sampling algorithm and a new gibbs sampling algorithm transition intensities proportions of stayers and functions of these parameters are then estimated with the gibbs sampling algorithm for individual transition data coming from the french labour force surveys collected over the period 1986 2000 copyright 2003 john wiley sons ltd

renewable energy consumption urbanization financial development income and co2 emissions in turkey testing ekc hypothesis with structural breaks abstract in this study the short and long run dynamic relationship between per capita gdp per capita carbon dioxide co2 emissions financial development per capita total renewable energy consumption hydropower consumption alternative energy consumption and urbanization was investigated by using ardl bounds testing approach gregory hansen and hatemi j cointegration tests for turkey during 1974 2014 the results of three cointegration test indicated that there was a long run relationship between these variables the coefficients obtained from the ardl fully modified least squares fmols and canonical cointegrating regression ccr estimators showed that economic growth financial development and urbanization increase environmental degradation while total renewable energy consumption hydropower consumption and alternative energy consumption had no effect on co2 emissions the findings showed that economic growth caused the greatest increases in co2 emissions followed by urbanization and financial development however renewable energy consumption was not at a desirable level to reduce co2 emissions the study also support environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis which establishes an inverted u shaped relationship between economic growth and co2 emissions the turning points of per capita gdp obtained from long run regressions were found to be around 13523 14077 us dollars outside the sample period the overall results indicated that turkey has not reached the level of per capita gdp that can reduce environmental pollution and renewable energy consumption is not a solution to reduce co2 emissions

pollution haven hypothesis revisited a comparison of the brics and mint countries based on vecm approach abstract the aim of this study is to investigate the existence of pollution haven hypothesis phh and test the casual relationship between inward foreign direct investment fdi and environmental pollutions as well as other potential influencing factors of environmental performance to this end a panel vector error correction model vecm and panel co integration test is conducted for two country groups the brics i e brazil russia india china and south africa and the mint i e mexico indonesia nigeria and turkey during 1982 2014 empirical results illustrate a bidirectional and positive causality between fdi inflows and gdp per capita for both groups implying a virtuous circle of fdi growth nexus more importantly both the brics and mint countries illustrate bidirectional and negative causality between fdi inflows and environmental pressures i e per capita energy consumption for brics and per capita carbon emissions for mint such findings indicate the pollution haven hypothesis does not stand in this case in addition it is also found that the opening degree of trade can be promoted by fdi inflows which has rarely been deeply analyzed in prior studies concluding remarks and policy suggestions are proposed in the last section

dynamic relationship between financial development energy consumption trade and greenhouse gas comparison of upper middle income countries from asia europe africa and america the paper explores the nexus between greenhouse gas financial development energy consumption trade and urbanization in 34 upper middle income countries from asia europe africa and america south and north by using panel data from 2001 to 2014 vector error correction model explored different results for different regions such as the causality of greenhouse gas for europe and america financial development for asia trade openness for asia europe and america and urbanization for africa and america the causality of greenhouse gas emission was bi directional with urbanization in america and trade in europe the bi directional causality of trade was observed with financial development in asia and urbanization in africa the generalized method of moment and fully modified ordinary least square explored a direct association of per capita greenhouse gas emission with financial development in europe energy consumption in all panels and renewable energy in africa and america but the relationship of per capita emission was reciprocal with financial development in asia africa and america renewable energy in europe trade in europe africa and america and urbanization in asia europe and america the relationship of variables changes from region to region and country to country a country based reciprocal effect on per capita greenhouse gas was observed for financial development renewable energy trade openness and urbanization for different countries this paper provides an insight to policy makers to re structure the financial system energy usage pattern trade and urbanization in accordance with the cleaning of environment at country and regional level

impact of financial development on trade embodied carbon dioxide emissions evidence from 30 provinces in china abstract the literature on financial development and carbon dioxide co2 emissions is extensive however previous studies have not found the impact of financial development on trade embodied co2 emissions therefore we build a dynamic panel model based on the extension of the stirpat model to verify the overall and indirect impact of financial development we calculate trade embodied co2 emissions of 30 provinces in china in 2000 2014 using the single region input output model srio by eliminating the impact of imported intermediate products on co2 emissions embodied in exports exc in order to measure financial development in china more comprehensively we use financial scale development financial efficiency and financialization to define it results show that the environmental kuznets curve is confirmed at the level of china s provinces in most provinces exc began to increase in 2006 and decline in 2010 but co2 embodied in net exports ec began to decrease in 2005 and increase in 2010 the results of overall impact indicate that different financial development indicators have different effects on ec but they all reduce exc the results of indirect impact through imitation innovation ic and independent research and development rd find that financial scale development increases exc however financial efficiency and financialization decreases exc financial scale development and financial efficiency can decrease ec but financialization increases ec the results of indirect impact through fdi show that financial scale development and financial efficiency can decrease exc and ec financialization decreases exc but the impact of financialization on ec has obvious threshold characteristics when the level of financialization is lower than the threshold value financialization will reduce ec there is regional heterogeneity in the impact of financial development on trade embodied co2 emissions the conclusions of this paper are of great reference value for improving the level of financial development so as to realize the development of china s green trade

the effects of electricity consumption economic growth financial development and foreign direct investment on co2 emissions in kuwait abstract this study examined the empirical effects of economic growth electricity consumption foreign direct investment fdi and financial development on carbon dioxide co2 emissions in kuwait using time series data for the period 1980 2013 to achieve this goal we applied the autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach and found that cointegration exists among the series findings indicate that economic growth electricity consumption and fdi stimulate co2 emissions in both the short and long run the vecm granger causality analysis revealed that fdi economic growth and electricity consumption strongly granger cause co2 emissions based on these findings the study recommends that kuwait reduce emissions by expanding its existing carbon capture utilization and storage plants capitalizing on its vast solar and wind energy reducing high subsidies of the residential electricity scheme and aggressively investing in energy research to build expertise for achieving electricity generation efficiency

co2 emissions and financial development in an emerging economy an augmented var approach abstract this paper explores the influence of economic and financial development on carbon emissions in a small emerging economy the study employs ardl approach to investigate the long run relationship between carbon emissions and a set of economic and financial variables an error correction model ecm to capture the short run dynamics granger causality in an augmented var framework to check the causality direction and variance decomposition based on an estimated vector error correction model vecm to determine the relative contributions of economic and financial variables to the evolution of per capita carbon emissions the periods considered were the full sample 1971 2011 and a reduced sample sub period 1988 2011 that corresponded to greater liberalization and financial sector development the financial variables played a role in emission mitigation only in the latter period where greater degree of liberalization and financial sector development occurred even then the relative magnitude of emissions mitigation attributable to financial variables was much smaller compared to the emissions raising impact of rising per capita incomes this underscores the need for adopting other mitigation policies for reducing carbon footprints in those emerging economies where a sufficient degree of financial deepening and financial sector development has not yet taken place

dissecting the cycle a methodological investigation following burns and mitchell we define the cycle as a pattern in the level of aggregate economic activity an algorithm to locate turning points is developed as is a new measure of pro cyclicality a link between turning points and the moments of the series is established thereby providing the statistical foundation that burns and mitchell s work lacked using these tools we are able to dissect cycles in terms of the contributions made by trend growth volatility serial correlation and non linear effects we dissect several models and find little evidence that certain non linear effects are important to the nature of business cycles

the high price of dematerialization a dynamic panel data analysis of material use and economic recession abstract dematerialization at the national level occurs almost exclusively during periods of economic recession or low growth while recession is not a sustainable strategy to curb environmental impact such periods may offer important insights on the possibilities of reducing material use economic recession research has focused on the interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables with little systematic research dedicated to uncovering how resource use develops during periods of recession using a dynamic panel model we investigate whether and to what extent material use in a sample of 150 economies between 1970 and 2010 was affected by recession and low growth recession occurred most frequently and in more than two thirds of all countries during the 1980s and the 1990s in the 2000s more than half of the recessions occurred during the financial crisis of 2008 periods of recession were significantly and negatively correlated with material use they tended to coincide with dematerialization material use decreased in recession years but the significant correlations with growth in material use became weaker as growth rates increased construction minerals and metals used to build stocks of manufactured capital reacted more strongly to economic fluctuations than the throughput dominated flows of biomass and fossil fuels we conclude that the systematic link between recession and dematerialization can become policy relevant if the mechanisms causing reductions in material use during these periods are identified

dynamic linkages between globalization financial development and carbon emissions evidence from asia pacific economic cooperation countries abstract this study determines the dynamic linkages between globalization financial development and carbon emissions in asia pacific economic cooperation apec countries in the presence of energy intensity and economic growth under the framework of environment kuznets curve ekc this study employs the panel data from 1990 to 2016 westerlund cointegration technique to find long run cointegration and continuously updated bias corrected cup bc and continuously updated fully modified cup fm methods to check the long run elasticities between the variables empirical results indicate that globalization and financial development significantly reduce carbon emissions but economic growth and energy intensity increase them these results support the ekc hypothesis for apec countries the dumitrescu and hurlin causality analysis shows that globalization granger causes co2 emissions globalization also causes financial development and energy intensity a feedback effect exists between financial development and co2 emissions furthermore financial development causes economic growth but similar is not true from opposite side in granger sense finally this study presents important policy implications with respect to apec countries

do financial development urbanization and trade affect environmental quality evidence from china abstract it is of great significance to study the impact of financial development on carbon emissions for the development of low carbon economy although many empirical studies reveal significant correlations between financial development and various environmental pollution variables few studies differentiate financial scale and efficiency from other factors and pay attention to the impact of securities capital market on carbon emissions in view of the complexity of financial development impact mechanism on carbon emissions in china this paper classifies financial development into two dimensions financial scale and securities size we establish a broader autoregressive distributed lag error correction model ardl ecm which is used to measure the dynamic relationship among financial scale securities size urbanization economic development trade openness and china s carbon emission intensity the study indicates that there is positive short run and long run relationship among financial scale economic growth and carbon emission intensity this reflects that the current development of financial scale has stimulated the development of china s economy but brought carbon emissions the size of securities has a relatively small impact on carbon emission intensity both in the short run and long run this shows that china s current securities market mechanism of regulating carbon emissions needs further improvement the above conclusions are convinced by the robustness tests this paper provides empirical evidence for policy makers to support the implementation of financial and low carbon economy growth

dissecting us recoveries abstract we propose a set of new quantitative measures to characterize more fully the features of economic recoveries we apply these measures to post war us expansions and use cluster analysis to determine that there are two different types of recoveries in recent us economic history with most expansions before 1984 great moderation looking quite different from those after

are linear models really unuseful to describe business cycle data we use first differenced logged quarterly series for the gdp of 29 countries and the euro area to assess the need to use nonlinear models to describe business cycle dynamic behaviour our approach is model estimation free based on testing only we aim to maximize power to detect non linearities and simultaneously we purport avoiding the pitfalls of data mining the evidence we find does not support some descriptions because the presence of significant non linearities is observed for 2 3 of the countries only linear models cannot be simply dismissed as they are frequently useful contrarily to common knowledge nonlinear business cycle variation does not seem to be an universal undisputable and clearly dominant stylized fact this finding is particularly surprising for the u s case some support for nonlinear dynamics for some further countries is obtained indirectly through unit root tests but this is marginal to our study based on indirectmethods only and can hardly be invoked to support nonlinearity in classical business cycles

slow recoveries a structural interpretation an analysis of the speed of recovery of employment unemployment and gdp following business cycle troughs in the postwar u s economy points to much slower recoveries in the three most recent episodes but does not reveal any signi cant change in the relation between gdp and employment or unemployment across recoveries this leads us to characterize the last three episodes as slow recoveries as opposed to jobless recoveries we use the estimated new keynesian model in gali smets wouters 2011 to provide a structural interpretation for the slower recoveries since the early nineties

high growth recoveries inventories and the great moderation we develop a dynamic factor model to compute short term forecasts of the spanish gdp growth in real time with this model we compute a business cycle index which works well as an indicator of the business cycle conditions in spain to examine its real time forecasting accuracy we use real time data vintages from 2008 02 through 2009 01 we conclude that the model exhibits good forecasting performance in anticipating the recent and sudden downturn

nexus between green finance non fossil energy use and carbon intensity empirical evidence from china based on a vector error correction model abstract previous studies have considered the effect of financial development on carbon emissions however few studies have explored the role of green finance in carbon mitigation to bridge this gap the current study constructs a green finance development index based on four indicators green credit green securities green insurance and green investment a vector error correction model is used to analyze relationships between the development level of green finance non fossil energy consumption and carbon intensity using data from 2000 to 2018 we find that china s green finance industry developed rapidly and improvements in the green finance development index as well as the increasing use of non fossil energy contributed to a reduction in carbon intensity simultaneously an increase in carbon intensity inhibited the expansion of non fossil energy use impeded the investment flow to green projects and ultimately led to a deterioration of green finance development in addition non fossil energy consumption in china was primarily influenced by green finance and carbon intensity with clear policy driven effects however the impacts of green finance policies continually fell short and lacked continuity this study proposes ways in which to improve the effect of green finance policy implementation expand the consumption of non fossil energy and develop a carbon trading market

financial stability energy consumption and environmental quality evidence from south asian economies abstract a few studies are found on the relationship between financial instability energy consumption and environmental quality in energy economics literature the current study is an endeavor to fill this gap by investigating the relationship between financial stability economic growth energy consumption and carbon dioxide co 2 emissions in south asian countries over the period 1980 2012 using a multivariate framework bounds test for cointegration and granger causality approach are employed for the empirical analysis estimated results suggest that all variables are non stationary and cointegrated the results show that financial stability improves environmental quality while the increase in economic growth energy consumption and population density are detrimental for environment quality in the long run the results also support the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis which assumes an inverted u shaped path between income and environmental quality moreover the study found the evidence of unidirectional causality running from financial stability to co 2 emissions in two countries i e pakistan and sri lanka the findings of this study open up new insight for policy makers to design a comprehensive financial economic and energy supply policies to minimize the detrimental impact of environmental pollution

the importance of energy quality in energy intensive manufacturing evidence from panel cointegration and panel fmols this paper expands on the panel gdp energy cointegration modeling literature it does so by using data disaggregated along sectoral lines and adjusting energy consumption for the quality of the energy source e g electricity is of higher quality than oil which is of higher quality than coal in order to examine the role of energy quality in the five most energy intensive manufacturing sectors iron and steel non ferrous metals non metallic minerals chemicals and pulp and paper the database was constructed by combing energy consumption and energy price data to construct the energy quality index from the iea with economic data value added labor employed and physical capital from the oecd s structural analysis database in addition to finding the variables analyzed are panel i 1 and cointegrated for each sector based panel the long run elasticity estimates from panel fmols indicate the importance of energy quality primarily the shift toward the use of high quality electricity in these energy intensive manufacturing sectors in each case the elasticity for energy quality is greater than that for conventionally measured energy consumption sometimes orders of magnitude greater indeed the elasticity of conventionally measured energy consumption is insignificant to very small for three of the five sectors also when using the energy quality measure the importance of energy consumption relative to the other production factors stands out such results are useful for both energy gdp cointegration causality modelers and cge modelers who may need to estimate elasticities

business cycle asymmetry a deeper look this paper distinguishes two types of asymmetry in business cycles deepness and steepness deepness is defined as the characteristic that troughs are further below trend than peaks are above most previous research has focused exclusively on steepness which refers to cycles in which contractions are steeper than expansions a test for deepness is proposed and applied to u s post war quarterly unemployment real gnp and industrial production evidence of deepness is found for unemployment and industrial production while the evidence for real gnp is weaker previous evidence of steepness in unemployment is confirmed

relationship between energy production and water resource utilization a panel data analysis of 31 provinces in china abstract the systematic study of the relationship between energy production and water resource utilization is crucial for china to relieve the energy water crisis and achieve sustainable use of them this work explores the causal relationship between energy production and water resource utilization in china using panel data of 31 provinces over the period 2000 2014 this study have applied a panel unit root test cointegration test vector error correction model vecm and granger causality approaches to examine the long run and short run relationship between the variables the results show that 1 there is a long run bidirectional granger causality relationship between energy production and water resources utilization but a short run unidirectional relationship between two variables i e the water resource utilization is the short run granger reason for the change in energy production 2 the increases in industrial added value population and ratio of the secondary industry value added to gdp have a positive effect on both energy production and water resource utilization 3 industrial water use will fall by about 0 12 if the rate of industrial waste water reuse increases by 1 which shows that the progress of water saving technology can reduce industrial water usage effectively our findings indicate that government should implement strict water constraint strategies and promote water conservation technology for the sustainable development of energy and water resources in china