risk private information and the family in the last fifteen years our understanding of the behavior of households in both highand low income countries has increased significantly econometric studies contributing to this body of knowledge concerned with the determinants of such behavior as labor supply fertility health and food consumption however have generally taken the structure of the household as exogenously given while some progress has been made concerning how changes in the legal structure alter patterns of family formation and breakup the wide variety of family organizations observed across countries of the world or the evolution of family structure within countries cannot be readily explained by existing models while some economists have suggested that organizations based on kinship can be understood in terms of transaction economies yoram ben porath 1980 robert pollak 1985 there are now few precise implications of this approach and little or no evidence of its usefulness for predicting or explaining the existence of any particular family structure in specific settings characterized by their natural endowments and or legal structure in this paper i discuss some recent studies of family and household organization in one specific context rural india that have sought to formulate a model of household structure based on the need for individuals in lowincome private information settings to protect themselves against intertemporal fluctuations in resources arising from the natural vagaries of water supply i also present some new evidence on the relationship between family arrangements and measured risk characteristics of the agricultural environment in these settings while many economists have highlighted risk and information consideration in the study of such formal rural institutions as sharecropping permanent servitude and contractual interlinking studies of these individual contractural arrangements have ignored the family itself as a risk mitigating institution moreover much of this literature has been solely concerned with ex ante measures to reduce risk contractual instruments or production factors that reduce the effects of variability in the exogenous production input rainfall on income mechanisms serving to preserve consumption stability ex post in the face of variability in realized income have been neglected

indirect effects of an aid program how do cash transfers affect ineligibles consumption cash transfers to eligible households indirectly increase the consumption of ineligible households living in the same villages this effect operates through insurance and credit markets ineligible households benefit from the transfers by receiving more gifts and loans and by reducing their savings thus the transfers benefit the local economy at large looking only at the effect on the treated underestimates the impact one should analyze the effects of this class of programs on the entire local economy rather than on the treated only and use a village level randomization rather than selecting treatment and control subjects from the same community

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

the impact of progresa on food consumption abstract in this article we used data from the mexican poverty alleviation program called progresa programa de educacion salud y alimentacion to examine whether eligibility for a cash transfer provided by the program conditional on children s regular school attendance and regular visits to health centers is also associated with increased consumption of food we used a longitudinal sample of approximately 24 000 households from 506 communities a distinguishing characteristic of this sample was that some of the communities were randomly selected for participation in progresa while the rest were introduced into the program at later phases exploiting this feature in our analysis we found that eligible households in the villages covered by progresa increased caloric acquisition compared with eligible households not receiving these benefits by november 1999 median beneficiary households in treatment localities obtained 6 4 more calories than did comparable households in control localities perhaps eve

effects of treatment beyond the treated a general equilibrium impact evaluation of lesotho s cash grants program africa s social cash transfer programs target the most resource constrained households unlikely to expand supply in response to transfer induced demand we propose a local economy wide impact evaluation model and use it to evaluate local spillovers from lesotho s child grants program we report monte carlo confidence bounds around impact simulation results we find significant spillovers to nonrecipient households and significant real income multipliers although the latter are dampened if factor supply constraints generate excessive inflationary pressures our findings raise questions about how to measure the impacts of cash transfers evaluations focusing only on eligible households are likely to significantly understate program impacts

adoption of improved maize varieties in southern ethiopia factors and strategy options abstract this paper identifies factors that influence the decision behavior of farmers in southern ethiopia in adopting improved maize varieties by estimating a logistic regression data for this study came from 222 farmers interviewed as part of a national adoption survey conducted in three selected maize growing administrative zones of southern ethiopia in 1998 the paper also assesses the impact of pure and mixed strategy options on the probability of adoption of improved maize varieties through simulation under different scenarios as far as pure strategies are concerned the credit strategy is more powerful than the others in terms of raising the probability of adoption however results from the analysis of pure versus mixed strategies imply that mixed strategies are no necessarily much better than pure strategies

strategy proof exchange we consider the allocation of goods in exchange economies with a finite number of agents who may have private information about their preferences in such a setting standard allocation rules such as walrasian equilibria or rational expectations equilibria are not compatible with individual incentives we characterize the set of allocation rules which are incentive compatible or in other words the set of strategy proof social choice functions social choice functions which are strategy proof are those which can be obtained from trading according to a finite number of pre specified proportions the number of proportions which can be accommodated is proportional to the number of agents such rules are necessarily inefficient even in the limit as the economy grows

treble damage awards in private lawsuits for price fixing the traditional model for assessing the effects of treble damage pena lties on price fixing is reexamined and shown to yield surprising res ults unless the probability of detection is extremely sensitive to the price charged increasing the damage multiple will affect neither market efficiency nor expected distribution and will raise the mark et price copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

approximately competitive equilibria in large finite economies abstract we consider exchange economies where each consumer may report or act according to any demand function provided that there exist situations that the consumer finds plausible in which the reported demand performs at least as well as the true demand we identify conditions under which as the size of the economy increases all the market clearing prices and allocations of the reported economy approximate the competitive equilibria of the true economy journal of economic literature classification numbers d51 d82

implementation in differential information economies abstract we consider the problem of implementation of social choice correspondences in differential information economies we provide necessary conditions for implementation and slightly stronger conditions which are sufficient to guarantee implementation

who benefited from burundi s demobilization program this paper assesses the impact of the demobilization reinsertion and reintegration program in post war burundi two major rebel groups benefited from cash and in kind transfers the cndd fdd from 2004 and the fnl from 2010 a panel data of households collected in 2006 and 2010 is combined with official records from the national commission for demobilization reinsertion and reintegration regression analysis shows that the cash payments received by fnl demobilized households had a positive impact on consumption nonfood spending and investments the program also generated positive spillovers in the villages where fnl combatants returned ex combatants indeed spent a large part of their allowance on consumption goods and clothing thereby generating a short run economic boom in villages however the long run evolution of consumption indicators is negative for cndd fdd households as well as for villages where cndd fdd combatants returned suggesting that the direct impact and the spillovers of the program vanished in the long run

on the possibility of informationally efficient markets this paper presents conditions for a resolution of the grossman stiglitz paradox of informationally efficient markets we display a market with asymmetric information where a privately revealing equilibrium obtains in a competitive framework and where incentives to acquire information are preserved as long as the correlation in traders valuations is not too large the equilibrium is efficient and the problems associated with fully revealing rational expectations equilibria are precluded without resorting necessarily to noise traders the robustness of the results to general information structures is established and the effect of market power is examined in a large market approximation to the competitive economy the model is applied to explain changes in bidding behavior in central bank liquidity auctions in the crisis period jel d82 d84 g14 e59

modeling agricultural growth multipliers agriculture s potential as an engine of third world growth depends in large part on the size of the production and consumption linkages it stimulates in rural regions current estimates of agricultural growth multipliers within rural regions vary widely not only because economic structures differ across regions but also because the array of fixed price models most commonly used embody widely differing basic assumptions among fixed price models the semi input output formulation projects the most plausible multipliers but even they overstate the magnitude of growth multipliers by 10 to 25 according to the price endogenous model developed here

do auctions and forced divestitures increase competition evidence for retail gasoline markets to foster competition governments can intervene by auctioning licenses to operate or by imposing divestitures the dutch government has done exactly that organizing auctions to redistribute tenancy rights for highway gasoline stations and imposing divestitures of such stations on the four major companies we evaluate this policy experiment and find that the auctioning of licenses without an obligation to divest has no discernible effect on prices an obligation to divest lowers prices by 1 3 2 3 at divested sites moreover prices decrease by 0 9 1 2 at sites nearby this suggests that the observed price decreases are at least partly due to competitive spillovers

self fulfilling mechanisms and rational expectations we introduce a class of communication equilibria which we call self fulfilling mechanisms and show that they provide a game theoretic foundation to rational expectations equilibria letebe an exchange economy with differential information we associate a strategic market game e withe we prove that the allocations achieved through a self fulfilling mechanism in e coincide with the rational expectations equilibrium allocations ine in order to understand how self fulfilment can be realized in a dynamic framework we investigate the relationship between self fulfilling mechanisms in e and nash equilibria of thet stage repeated game t e journal of economic literatureclassification numbers d82 c72

the mis allocation of capital is capital allocated so that its marginal product is equated to the market interest rate is the marginal product of capital equalized across its alternative uses this paper attempts to answer both of these questions using data from india and concludes that both these standard properties fail by a wide margin jel o16 g2

continuous and feasible implementation of rational expectations lindahl allocations abstract in this paper we consider bayesian implementation of rational expectations lindahl allocations for economic environments with public goods when agents are incompletely informed about environments we construct a continuous and feasible mechanism whose bayesian equilibrium allocations coincide with rational expectations lindahl allocations we not only allow the types of individuals to be unknown but also allow both the preferences and the initial endowments to be unknown to the designer in addition we allow some types of boundary equilibrium allocations and a continuous information structure journal of economic literatureclassification number c72 d71 d82 h41

the price effects of cash versus in kind transfers this article examines the effect of cash versus in kind transfers on local prices both types of transfers increase the demand for normal goods in kind transfers also increase supply in recipient communities which could lead to lower prices than under cash transfers we test and confirm this prediction using a programme in mexico that randomly assigned villages to receive boxes of food trucked into the village equivalently valued cash transfers or no transfers we find that prices are significantly lower under in kind transfers compared to cash transfers relative to the control group in kind transfers cause a 4 fall in prices while cash transfers cause a positive but negligible increase in prices in the more economically developed villages in the sample households purchasing power is only modestly affected by these price effects in the less developed villages the price effects are much larger in magnitude which we show is due to these villages being less tied to the outside economy and having less competition among local suppliers

risk and insurance in a rural credit market an empirical investigation in northern nigeria credit contracts play a direct role in pooling risk between households in northern nigeria repayments owed by borrowers depend on realizations of random shocks by both borrowers and lenders the paper develops two models of state contingent loans the first is a competitive equilibrium in perfectly enforceable contracts the second permits imperfect information and equilibrium default estimates of both models indicate that quantitatively important state contingent payments are embedded in these loan transactions but that a fully efficient risk pooling equilibrium is not achieved the research is based on a year long survey in zaria nigeria conducted by the author

the efficiency of competitive mechanisms under private information we consider the efficiency properties of exchange economies where privately informed traders behave strategically specifically a competitive mechanism is any mapping of traders reports about their types to an equilibrium price vector and allocation of the reported economy in our model some traders may have non vanishing impact on prices and allocations regardless of the size of the economy although truthful reporting by all traders cannot be achieved we show that given any desired level of approximation there is n such that any bayesian nash equilibrium of any competitive mechanism of any private information economy with n or more traders leads with high probability to prices and allocations that are close to a competitive equilibrium of the true economy in particular allocations are approximately efficient a key assumption is that there is small probability that traders behave non strategically

education choices in mexico using a structural model and a randomized experiment to evaluate progresa in this paper we evaluate the effect of a large welfare program in rural mexico for such a purpose we use an evaluation sample that includes a number of villages where the program was not implemented for evaluation purposes we estimate a structural model of education choices and argue that without such a framework it is impossible to evaluate the effect of the program and especially possible changes to its structure we also argue that the randomized component of the data allows us to identify a more flexible model that is better suited to evaluate the program we find that the program has a positive effect on the enrollment of children especially after primary school we also find that an approximately revenue neutral change in the program that would increase the grant for secondary school children while eliminating for the primary school children would have a substantially larger effect on enrollment of the latter while having minor effects on the former

private information in large economies this paper examines the effect of private information in large economies we show that in a model with stochastic information structures the restrictions imposed on allocations by the presence of private information disappear in large economies we also show that for a large class of direct mechanisms the incentive for any agent to falsely report private information goes to zero as the number of agents becomes large these results provide an informational smallness analog to existing quantity smallness limiting results in the literature

agrarian structures urbanization and inequality summary this study examines the impact of agrarian structures on income inequality over the long run first it exhibits the relationship between land and income distribution by developing a theoretical model based on harris and todaro 1970 and lewis 1954 high land inequality increases income gini coefficients in the urban sector as well as the rural sector not only by creating congestion in the urban subsistence sector but also by feeding the growth of the urban reserve army of labor which pulls down the wages in the urban capitalist sector next the study investigates the empirical relationship between land inequality level of urbanization and income inequality using cross country datasets the estimation results support the theoretical model and indicate that the level of land inequality has a significant impact on determining the level of urbanization and urban and overall income inequalities moreover the analysis finds that overurbanization increases income inequality the empirical analysis controls for institutional factors like education inequality and the level of democracy the results present a stronger evidence on the land inequality s influence through urbanization than through education and democracy these results suggest that policymakers should have a broader view as to the importance of agrarian policies a progressive land reform or and subsidies protecting small peasantry can also reduce urban income inequality and poverty over the long run

agriculture and economic growth in ethiopia growth multipliers from a four sector simulation model abstract agriculture accounts for over half of ethiopian gdp yet the case for agriculture as a focus of economic growth strategies must rely on identifying a set of intersectoral linkages through which agricultural growth contributes to the growth of non agriculture in the ethiopian economy this article develops a four sector numerical simulation model of economic growth in ethiopia which permits the calculation of macroeconomic growth multipliers resulting from income shocks to agriculture services modern industry and traditional industry the resulting growth multipliers are 1 54 for agriculture 1 80 for services 1 34 for modern industry and 1 22 for traditional industry these results depict an economy in which intersectoral linkages operate on a highly uneven basis these limits are reflected in the wide disparity between sectoral growth multipliers and by substantial differences in the patterns of their decomposition the policy relevance of these findings relate in part to the distributional implications of growth in particular sectors poverty in ethiopia is disproportionately rural an income shock to agriculture is clearly the most progressive choice indicating the need to highlight agricultural development in growth strategies for ethiopia yet the simulation results further indicate that doing so imposes relatively little trade off against total benefit while a 1 service sector income shock generates 0 80 in indirect benefits a 1 agricultural income shock still generates 0 54 in indirect gains a somewhat smaller benefit but one likely to make the greatest possible impact on poverty reduction

internal and international migration in mexico 1995 2000 using micro data from mexico and us 2000 population censuses and following a multi choice variant of roy s 1951 model this article pools into one model the determinants of internal and international migration in mexico while paying explicit attention to the potential problem of self selection the results reveal that ignoring multiple destinations in the migration decision might lead to erroneous inferences about the determinants of migration and the type of selection after controlling for wage differences the results suggest that single adult men with low schooling levels tend to migrate to the us while married women and men with higher levels of schooling tend to migrate within mexico we also found that there are strong differences between domestic and international social networks

self fulfilling mechanisms in bayesian games abstract amechanismfor a bayesian gamegis a mapping from the set of states of nature to the set of players actions isself fulfillingif players are truthful at the communication stage and given the information revealed by no player can gain in unilaterally deviating from the action prescribed by the mechanism we investigate the properties of self fulfilling mechanisms and we show in particular that they correspond to inert solutions of the infinitely repeated game generated byg we also discuss applications to market games regulation and r d games journal of economic literatureclassification numbers d82 c72

consumption insurance an evaluation of risk bearing systems in low income economies the hypothesis of full risk sharing can be taken to data from low income countries and evaluate formal and informal financial systems in many contexts idiosyncratic risks are high so credit insurance arrangements could be beneficial statistical tests reveal that households in southern india take advantage of these possibilities villages in cote d ivoire and countries in thailand do not do as well the paper includes an empirical description of the devices used to smooth consumption and a theoretical discussion of private information and incentives on ideal operating systems the full information and mechanism design frameworks provide benchmarks for policy analysis

financial systems in northern thai villages field research attempted to measure the risky environments the information structures the institutions and the risk response mechanisms of ten villages in northern thailand various key features are then modeled in an abstract but realistic way either with a full information risk sharing model or an information constrained version of the same model observations from some of the villages seem consistent with one or the other of these models but in many of the villages one is left with risk response variations across households which suggest that pareto improvements are possible

the generic existence of rational expectations equilibrium in the higher dimensional case abstract the study of the generic existence of rational expectations equilibrium has concentrated on three cases according to whether the space of states of private information has dimension less than equal to or greater than the price space previous results have shown that in the first case fully revealing equilibria exist generically and in the second case there are open sets of environments with no equilibrium this paper shows that in the third case there is a residual set of environments which permits equilibria which are arbitrarily close to fully revealing

a dynamic model of expectations equilibrium abstract this paper describes a dynamic information adjustment process which achieves rational expectations equilibria for stochastic exchange environments an informational temporary equilibrium is an exchange equilibrium in which agents expectations are conditioned on their initial information and market data generated in previous informational temporary equilibria an equilibrium is a temporary equilibrium which reveals no further information this process leads to an equilibrium even when the data observed by agents is insufficient to permit the existence of an expectations equilibrium

migration and the urban to rural earnings difference a sample selection approach in particular i conjecture that in many parts of rural africa a self selection mechanism may occur that sorts migratory and nonmigratory workers in a manner consistent with the notion that those workers who are most likely to benefit from migration do so and workers least likely to benefit from migration do not in other words individuals sort themselves into migratory and nonmigratory workers given their characteristics for instance rural workers with relatively more human capital skills are most likely to migrate because the discrepancy is larger between earnings from rural unskilled jobs that underutilize their skills and earnings from skilled jobs in urban areas that more fully realize their potential given their characteristics therefore participation in the migratory labor stream is strongly assumed to be influenced by the workers anticipated earnings as a migrant versus his or her anticipated earnings from working in the rural area as a nonmigrant it is thus conceivable that the urban to rural earnings difference would be positive for workers with relatively greater skills and that their incidence of migration may be higher this study tests this hypothesis excerpt

the evolution of monetary equilibrium abstract the hahn problem is that even if a monetary equilibrium with valued fiat money exists in general equilibrium a nonmonetary equilibrium with a zero price on money generally also exists why should we expect the former over the latter here i consider the preferences that will survive repeated trading in an exchange economy where agents compete in biological fitness with unobservable preferences and positive assortativity in matching evolutionarily stable preferences implement the competitive equilibrium that maximizes the sum of agents fitnesses in a standard bewley townsend model this implies selection of the monetary over the nonmonetary equilibrium and also implies the survival of agents with money in the utility function trust in fiat money is only a recent development and even today such faith is hardly universal cass and shell 1980

district level economic linkages in kenya evidence based on a small regional social accounting matrix abstract this paper explores the nature and extent of the economic linkages in a small regional economy defined by a market center and its hinterland in kenya the analysis is based on a set of income and employment multipliers derived from a social accounting matrix estimated for the region issues considered include the impact of production activities on regional value added and employment the influence of sectoral production on the level of household income and the impact of household expenditure on regional value added and the relative significance of production and consumption linkages in terms of stimulating aggregate income the above questions are examined under the assumption of complete excess capacity in regional production and under the assumption of supply constraints in agriculture the usefulness of the analysis for district level economic planning is demonstrated

the economic impacts of drought on the economy of iran an integration of linear programming and macroeconometric modelling approaches in this paper we provide economy wide estimates of the costs of drought in the cropping sector of the iranian economy using a linear programming model to estimate the direct costs on agriculture and a macroeconometric model to trace the indirect impacts on the rest of the economy the results indicate that a severe drought such as the one that occurred in the crop year 1999 2000 imposes a direct cost of 1605 million usd equivalent to 30 3 of the total value added of the cropping sector in iran this in turn leads to a 12 7 reduction in the value added of other agricultural sub sectors livestock fisheries and forestry in the rest of the economy the manufacturing and service sectors experience value added declines of 7 8 and 3 7 respectively in addition there is a substantial decrease in investment in the agricultural manufacturing and service sectors thus such a drought reduces overall gdp by about 4 4 and it would also result in decreased non oil exports increased food imports and a rise in inflation the results of some drought mitigation simulations are reported in brief such estimates strengthen the case for increased attention to drought strategies and management in agriculture in iran and elsewhere

the ecological footprint of poverty alleviation evidence from mexico s oportunidades program abstract we study the consequences of poverty alleviation programs for environmental degradation we exploit the community level eligibility discontinuity for a conditional cash transfer program in mexico to identify the impacts of income increases on deforestation and use the program s initial randomized rollout to explore household responses we find that additional income raises consumption of land intensive goods and increases deforestation the observed production response and deforestation increase are larger in communities with poor road infrastructure this suggests that better access to markets disperses environmental harm and that the full effects of poverty alleviation on the environment can be observed only where poor infrastructure localizes them

the significance of access to land as a determinant of kenya s interregional migration abstract hous and rempel 1980 obtain a positive sign that is not significant different from zero for wages expected in a region of origin given kenya s rural economic structure formal sector wages misrepresent income opportunities this study applies a polytomous logistic model to aggregate published census data from kenya to test whether measures of access to land provide a better representation of income opportunities and lead to results consistent with underlying migration theory i find that as an origin province s quality of agricultural land rises the likehood of migration declines accompanying these results is a brief historical description of kenya s land tenure system

full insurance in the presence of aggregate uncertainty this paper tests implications of full consumption insurance the object is to determine how much mileage can be obtained from a model with complete markets with such features as private information or liquidity constraints omitted the implication exploited is that individual consumption responds to aggregate risk but not to idiosyncratic risk the test involves regressing the change in household consumption onto the change in aggregate consumption and other right hand side variables such as the change in household income and change in employment status all variables other than the change in aggregate consumption are predicted to be insignificant in explaining the change in household consumption with observations on consumption and income for 10 695 households from the consumer expenditure survey the results are mixed the results for one specification exponential utility are mostly consistent with full consumption insurance the results for the other specification power utility are not

agricultural spillover effects of cash transfers what does lewie have to say lewie simulations suggest that there are positive production spillovers fromsctprograms in nominal terms total production multipliers are always significantly greater than zero and income multipliers are always greater than one however real impacts depend on supply elasticities and market closure assumptions to date studies do not point to inflationary impacts of scts opm 2012a opm 2012b although the evidence on price effects is very limited this suggests that simulation 2 best characterizes the production impacts of scts which target poor economies with under utilized factors this simulation reveals a minimal inflationary impact and real production value added multipliers of 1 58 ksh per shilling transferred a key finding of lewie is that the production impacts are concentrated in nonbeneficiary households this is not surprising given the program s eligibility criteria which target the most asset and labor constrained households rcts focusing on treated households are likely to miss many or most of the productive impacts of social cash transfer programs this finding reaffirms the importance of a local economy wide approach if we wish to capture the transfers full impact finally our findings underline the importance of local supply constraints in shaping the impacts of transfer programs in the high unemployment environment characterizing rural kenya we believe it unlikely that there are significant labor constraints on production nevertheless production constraints limit program benefits particularly in nonbeneficiary households which are far and away the main source of new supply when production bottlenecks generate inflation transfers may even negatively affect some households interventions focusing on local production constraints in nonbeneficiary as well as beneficiary households may be needed to unlock the productive potential of scts

farmers subjective valuation of subsistence crops the case of traditional maize in mexico shadow prices guide farmers resource allocations but for subsistence farmers growing traditional crops shadow prices may bear little relationship with market prices we econometrically estimate shadow prices of maize using data from a nationally representative survey of rural households in mexico shadow prices are significantly higher than the market price for traditional but not improved maize varieties they are particularly high in the indigenous areas of southern and southeastern mexico indicating large de facto incentives to maintain traditional maize there

farm nonfarm linkages in rural sub saharan africa this paper is an accumulation over the past 25 years of a body of detailed work examining the structure of africa s rural nonfarm economy first it systematically reviews empirical evidence on the nature and magnitude of the african rural nonfarm economy it then explores differences across locality and size across countries and over time in an effort to assess likely patterns of growth a subsequent review of key production and consumption parameters allows an estimate of the magnitude of the agricultural growth multipliers in africa the paper concludes with a brief discussion of policies and programs that will be necessary if farm nonfarm growth linkages are to achieve their full potential

give a man a fishpond modeling the impacts of aquaculture in the rural economy abstract the rapid growth of fish farming over the past three decades has generated heated debate over the role of aquaculture in rural development and poverty reduction central to these debates is the question of whether and how aquaculture impacts local incomes and employment yet little empirical evidence exists on the issue to address this question we propose a local economy wide impact evaluation lewie model which nests fish farm models within a general equilibrium model of their local economy the model is calibrated using primary data collected from 1102 households in myanmar s main aquaculture zone representative of 60 of the country s aquaculture farms using this model we examine the impact of aquaculture on the incomes and labor market outcomes of fish farming households but also crop farms and non farm households in the cluster simulating one acre increases in pond plot surface we find that 1 aquaculture generates much higher incomes per acre than agriculture 2 aquaculture generates larger income spillovers than agriculture for non farm households by way of retail and labor markets 3 small commercial fish farms generate greater spillovers than large fish farms these results bolster the notion that fish farming and in particular small scale commercial aquaculture may have a significant role to play in rural development and poverty reduction

implementation of walrasian expectations equilibria in an exchange economy with differentially informed traders non exclusivity of information nei is the condition that each trader s private information be perfectly predictable by an outside observer who has observed the private information of all other traders nei is one of a set of conditions which taken together are sufficient for the implementability of fully revealing expectations equilibria here we show that this condition is in fact necessary for the weak implementation of a much broader class of walrasian equilibria herein called expectations equilibria

agricultural technology and farm nonfarm growth linkages abstract agricultural growth stimulates rural nonfarm activity by boosting demand for production inputs and consumer goods but different kinds of agricultural technology promote different patterns of nonfarm linkages to explore how key features of agricultural technology affect growth in the rural nonfarm economy this paper reviews an array of cross section and time series evidence bearing on the dynamics of the rural nonfarm economy then using consumption and production parameters associated with different agricultural technologies it introduces a simple model which isolates the effects of different technologies on nonfarm growth linkages

an inquiry into quasi credit contracts the role of reciprocal credit and interlinked deals in small scale fishing communities in agrarian village societies beset with many hazards and uncertainties people evolve various means of coping with risk what is perhaps less known is that credit transactions can sometimes serve the function of reducing risk in such societies this article is concerned with examining several insurance motivated credit arrangements in small scale fishing communities a hunger insurance mechanism of reciprocal credit and a system of interlinked contracts aimed at insuring against risks in the spheres of labour and marketing relations will be extensively dealt with moreover the concept of triadic relationships will be shown to have special relevance in the case of traditional insurance arrangements aiming at controlling problems of moral hazard

on the existence of rational expectations equilibrium abstract we prove a theorem on the existence of rational expectations general economic equilibrium when agents condition on prices as well as on private information and maximize the expectation of a state dependent utility function the key to the result is a new idealization of what it means for a set of empirical distributions to support agents expectations this idealization depends on the notion that agents compare their expectations with continuous versions of the random empirical distributions that are generated by the workings of the economy the existence theorem covers all strictly concave utility functions arbitrary distributions of the state variable and situations in which the dimension of the state variable is large relative to the number of commodities

social interactions and schooling decisions abstract the aim of this paper is to study whether a child s schooling choices are affected by the schooling choices of other children identification is based on a randomized targeted intervention that grants a cash subsidy conditional on school attendance to a subgroup of eligible children within small rural villages in mexico progresa this policy change spills over to ineligible children if social interactions are relevant results indicate that the eligible children tend to attend school more frequently and the ineligible children acquire more schooling when the subsidy is introduced in their local village moreover the overall effect of progresa on eligible children is the sum of a direct effect due to cash transfers and an indirect effect due to changes in peer group schooling interestingly the social interactions effect is almost as important as the direct effect

consumption smoothing migration and marriage evidence from rural india a significant proportion of migration in low income countries particularly in rural areas is composed of moves by women for the purpose of marriage we seek to explain these mobility patterns by examining marital arrangements among indian households in particular we hypothesize that the marriage of daughters to locationally distant dispersed yet kinship related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks analysis of longitudinal south indian village data lends support to the hypothesis marriage cum migration contributes significantly to a reduction in the variability of household food consumption farm households afflicted with more variable profits tend to engage in longer distance marriage cum migration the hypothesized and observed marriage cum migration patterns are in dissonance with standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains

debt constrained asset markets we develop a theory of general equilibrium with endogenous debt limits in the form of individual rationality constraints similar to those in the dynamic consistency literature if an agent defaults on a contract he can be excluded from future contingent claims markets trading and can have his assets seized he cannot be excluded from spot markets trading however and he has some private endowments that cannot be seized all information is publicly held and common knowledge and there is a complete set of contingent claims markets since there is complete information an agent cannot enter into a contract in which he would have an incentive to default in some state in general there is only partial insurance variations in consumption may be imperfectly correlated across agents interest rates may be lower than they would be without constraints and equilibria may be pareto ranked

sri lanka can conditional cash transfer programs serve as safety nets in keeping children at school and from working when exposed to shocks this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study can conditional cash transfer cct programs serve as safety nets in keeping children at school and from working when exposed to shocks conducted the program started in 1997 and still exists today in sri lanka the study observed that income shocks on poor households are known to induce parents to take their children out of school and send them to work when other risk coping instruments are insufficient cct programs where the condition is on school attendance have been shown to be effective in increasing educational achievements and reducing child work shocks are highly prevalent and children have irregular periods of school enrollment children who are taken out of school are less likely to re enroll

the impact of the social cash transfer scheme on food security in malawi abstract the malawi social cash transfer scheme scts was launched in 2006 to improve food security by directly providing cash transfers to the country s most destitute households although government implemented cash transfer schemes have gained popularity throughout latin america these schemes are just emerging in africa while where there is evidence of the beneficial impact of cash transfers on food security from latin american countries there is a dearth of evidence from resource poor countries in africa in order to fill this gap we conducted a longitudinal randomized community control study of the pilot scts in mchinji malawi from march 2007 to april 2008 in this study we describe the impact of approximately us 14 per month on food security among recipient households compared to control households using indicators of food consumption and expenditures and dietary diversity we present compelling evidence whereby each of the tested outcomes yields large effect sizes that are highly statistically significant demonstrating a sizeable impact of cash transfers on food security and food diversity in rural malawi the scts appears to be an effective tool within the national social welfare policy for improving food security in the country s destitute households