nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in propagation of the great depression this paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period our approach is complementary to that of friedman and schwartz who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures we focus on non monetary primarily credit related aspects of the financial sector output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system we argue that the financial disruptions of 1930 33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the great depression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

more mortgages lower growth in newly collected data on 46 economies over 1990 2011 we show that financial development since 1990 was mostly due to growth in credit to real estate and other asset markets which has a negative growth coefficient we also distinguish between growth effects of stocks and flows of credit we find positive growth effects for credit flows to nonfinancial business but not for mortgage and other asset market credit flows by accounting for the composition of credit stocks and for the effect of credit flows we explain the insignificant or negative growth effects of financial development in recent times what was true in the 1960s 1970s and 1980s when the field of empirical credit growth studies blossomed is no longer true in the 1990s and 2000s new bank lending is not primarily to nonfinancial business and financial development may no longer be good for growth these trends predate the 2008 crisis they prompt a rethink of the role of banks in the process of economic growth jel e44 o16 o40 c33

bank risk taking securitization supervision and low interest rates evidence from the euro area and the u s lending standards using a unique dataset of the euro area and the u s bank lending standards we find that low monetary policy short term interest rates soften standards for household and corporate loans this softening especially for mortgages is amplified by securitization activity weak supervision for bank capital and low monetary policy rates for an extended period conversely low long term interest rates do not soften lending standards finally countries with softer lending standards before the crisis related to negative taylor rule residuals experienced a worse economic performance afterward these results help shed light on the origins of the crisis and have important policy implications the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

determinants of electricity consumption function in pakistan old wine in a new bottle abstract the objective of the study is to re investigate the multivariate electricity consumption function for pakistan particularly economic growth foreign direct investment and population growth over a 36 year time period i e between 1975 and 2010 the study employed the bounds testing procedure for cointegration which examines the short run and long run estimates dynamic short run causality test is applied to determine the causality direction between electricity consumption and its determinants by using wald f statistics the results reveal that determinants of electricity consumption function are cointegrated and influx of foreign direct investment income and population growth is positively related to electricity consumption in pakistan however the intensity of these determinants is different on electricity consumption if there is 1 increase in income foreign direct investment and population growth electricity consumption increases by 0 973 0 056 and 1 605 respectively this infers that income foreign direct investment and population growth induce an increase in electricity consumption in pakistan dynamic short run causality test indicates that there has been unidirectional causality which is running from population growth to electricity consumption in pakistan

the contribution of energy use and financial development by source in climate change mitigation process a global empirical perspective abstract the danger of climate change has over the years become a reality in the public domain while efforts to mitigate climate change involve energy mix energy efficiency and cleaner technology financial development has also been considered as an important factor indicator of financial development may draw fdi and advanced degree of research and development which can accelerate economic growth and hence affect dynamism of environmental performance this study examines the impacts of energy use and financial development indicators by source in the environment growth energy model for 90 countries categorized on the basis of income possession over the period 1980 2014 the study applies the panel analysis that accounts for cross sectional dependence and heterogeneity of series used in the estimation results from panel dynamic ordinary least squares dols show that in all the categories of countries fossil fuel energy use and gdp per capita are found to be the major drivers of co2 emissions though fossil fuel energy use possesses the bigger elasticities population however displays a sign contrary to expectation regarding economic theory in high income countries renewable energy and financial development on the other hand are capable of reducing co2 emissions however the magnitude of the long run elasticity of co2 emissions with respect to renewable energy use and financial development are much greater in the models with m2 gdp than the model with m2 reserve especially in the high income countries policies should be geared towards stimulating investments in renewable energy technology there is need to develop robust financial systems to lend financial credence to research institutes to work towards producing energy that have less carbon or are carbon free

debt deleveraging and the liquidity trap a fisher minsky koo approach in this paper we present a simple new keynesian style model of debt driven slumps that is situations in which an overhang of debt on the part of some agents who are forced into rapid deleveraging is depressing aggregate demand making some agents debt constrained is a surprisingly powerful assumption fisherian debt deflation the possibility of a liquidity trap the paradox of thrift a keynesiantype multiplier and a rationale for expansionary fiscal policy all emerge naturally from the model we argue that this approach sheds considerable light both on current economic difficulties and on historical episodes including japan s lost decade now in its 18th year and the great depression itself

determinants of energy consumption function in saarc countries balancing the odds abstract the objective of the study is to investigate the multivariate energy consumption function for south asian association for regional cooperation saarc countries namely bangladesh india nepal pakistan and srilanka particularly economic growth gdp relative prices of energy rep foreign direct investment fdi and different financial development indicators i e broad money supply liquid liabilities domestic credit provided by banking sector and domestic credit to private sector over a period of 1975 2011 the results reveal that granger causality running from all other variables to fdi which indicates a strong support for the hypothesis that energy consumption ec gdp rep and fd are important determinants in promoting the fdi both in short and long run in the context of bangladesh the results suggest for india indicate that gdp fdi rep and fd are useful in explaining the movements of ec in the short run similarly the granger causality results indicate that ec gdp rep and fd are the important determinants of fdi in case of nepal rep is the only variable whose movements in the short run determined by movements in the other four variables i e gdp fdi ec and fd however the ec also provide useful information about the variable fd the results of pakistan indicate the causal relationship among fdi and ec which supports the feedback hypothesis in the short and long run similarly both variables i e fdi and gdp supports the feedback hypothesis both in the long run and short run where as fd and ec fd and rep fdi and rep and finally rep and gdp supports the feedback hypothesis in the short run in case of srilanka this study did not find any strong support of the causality among the variables either in the short or long run except unidirectional granger causality running from fd to ec and ec to fdi

energy consumption real income and temporal causality results from a multi country study based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques abstract unlike previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration i e long term equilibrium relationship between these variables may be used in testing granger causality based on the most recent johansen s multivariate cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or non stationarity tests we test for cointegration between total energy consumption and real income of six asian economies india pakistan malaysia singapore indonesia and the philippines non rejection of cointegration between variables rules out granger non causality and imples at least one way of granger causality either unidirectional or bidirectionial secondly by using a dynamic vector error correction model we then analyse the direction of granger causation and hence the within sample granger exogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables thirdly the relative strength of the causality is gauged through the dynamic variance decomposition technique by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own in the bivariate system results based on these tools of methodology indicate that while all pair wise relationships shared common univariate integrational properties only relationships for three countries india pakistan and indonesia were cointegrated for these countries temporal causality results were mixed with unidirectional causality from energy to income for india exactly the reverse for indonesia and mutual causality for pakistan the vdcs were not inconsistent with these results and provided us with an additional insight as to the relatively more dominant direction of causation in pakistan simple bivariate vector autoregressive models for the three non cointegrated systems did not indicate any direction of causality significantly in either direction

the global credit boom challenges for macroeconomics and policy the recent financial crisis has put the spotlight on the rapid rise in credit which preceded it in this paper we provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the credit boom and the macroeconomic context in which it developed we find that the boom was unusually long and associated with neither particularly strong growth nor rising inflation in the economies in which it took place we show that this type of credit and financial cycle is hard to reconcile with existing economic theory and argue that while the global savings glut may account for the cycle s initial phase other factors such as the conduct of monetary policy and perceptions of declining macroeconomic risk were more important from the mid 2000s onwards we conclude by identifying some of the challenges now facing macroeconomics and policy

an econometric study of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in turkey abstract this study attempts to empirically examine the dynamic causal relationships between carbon emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of turkey using the time series data for the period 1960 2005 this research tests the interrelationship between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure the bounds test results indicate that there exist two forms of long run relationships between the variables in the case of first form of long run relationship carbon emissions are determined by energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of second long run relationship income is determined by carbon emissions energy consumption and foreign trade an augmented form of granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables the long run relationship of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade equation is also checked for the parameter stability the empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining the carbon emissions in turkey which is followed by energy consumption and foreign trade moreover there exists a stable carbon emissions function the results also provide important policy recommendations

the effect of fdi on environmental emissions evidence from a meta analysis one important and frequently raised issue about foreign direct investment fdi is the potentially negative consequences for the environment the potential environmental cost due to increased emissions may undermine the economic gains associated with increases in fdi inflow although the literature is dominated with this adverse view of fdi on the environment there is also a possibility that fdi can contribute to a cleaner environment especially if fdi comes with green technologies and this creates spillovers for domestic industries theoretically the effect of fdi on the environment can be negative or positive to deal with the theoretical ambiguity about the fdi environment nexus many empirical studies have been conducted but their results only reinforce the controversy as they produce contrasting results we conduct a meta analysis of the effect of fdi on environmental emissions using 65 primary studies that produce 1006 elasticities our results show that the underlying effect of fdi on environmental emissions is close to zero however after accounting for heterogeneity in the studies we find that fdi significantly reduces environmental emissions results remain robust after disaggregating the effect for countries at different levels of development as well as for different pollutants

when credit bites back using data on 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008 we document two key facts of the modern business cycle relative to typical recessions financial crisis recessions are costlier and more credit intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions in financial crises or otherwise and slower recoveries we use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macro economic controls to study how past credit accumulation impacts key macro economic variables such as output investment lending interest rates and inflation the facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that financial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle

money liquidity and monetary policy in a market based financial system banking and capital market developments are inseparable and funding conditions are closely tied to fluctuations in the leverage of market based financial intermediaries offering a window on liquidity the balance sheet growth of broker dealers provides a sense of the availability of credit contractions of broker dealer balance sheets have tended to precede declines in real economic growth even before the current turmoil for this reason balance sheet quantities of market based financial intermediaries are important macroeconomic state variables for the conduct of monetary policy

the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the asean 5 countries abstract the objective of this study is to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for asean 5 countries which includes indonesia malaysia thailand singapore and the philippines for empirical examination annual time series data in the period of 1980 2012 are used the results of johansen co integration test reveal that there exists one co integrating relationship among the variables in case of indonesia malaysia the philippines and singapore the results uncover the existence of two co integrating associations among the variables for thailand the granger causality test suggests that there is no unilateral causality for indonesia as in all the three cases in case of malaysia the economic growth caused energy consumption however no evidence is found for causality either from exports or from gross fixed capital formation to energy consumption while in the cases of thailand and the philippines the direction of causality runs from gross fixed capital formation to energy consumption for singapore energy consumption runs from two sides i e one from exports side and the other from gross fixed capital formation side the findings exhibit that energy consumption has significant and long run relationship to economic growth for almost all asean 5 countries the findings suggest that policy makers need to formulate policies conducive to the energy development which will consequently accelerate sustainable economic growth in asean countries energy development should be based on the existing condition of each country a comprehensive investment framework for renewable energy should also be developed besides maintaining adequate energy inventory the asean countries should strengthen their institutions and capacity as well as cooperation in energy management and development

srisk a conditional capital shortfall measure of systemic risk we introduce srisk to measure the systemic risk contribution of a financial firm srisk measures the capital shortfall of a firm conditional on a severe market decline and is a function of its size leverage and risk we use the measure to study top financial institutions in the recent financial crisis srisk delivers useful rankings of systemic institutions at various stages of the crisis and identifies fannie mae freddie mac morgan stanley bear stearns and lehman brothers as top contributors as early as 2005 q1 moreover aggregate srisk provides early warning signals of distress in indicators of real activity received june 7 2011 accepted april 18 2016 by editor geert bekaert

one size fits all monetary policy and asymmetric household debt cycles in u s states i investigate the nonlinear effects of monetary policy through differences in household debt across u s states after constructing a novel indicator of inflation for the states i compute state specific monetary policy stances as deviations from an aggregate taylor rule i find that the effectiveness of monetary policy is curtailed during periods of large household debt imbalances moreover a common u s monetary policy does not fit all it may have asymmetric effects on the economic performance across states particularly at times of high dispersion in the household debt imbalances as it may have been the case around the great recession

public procurement and innovation resurrecting the demand side abstract demand is a major potential source of innovation yet the critical role of demand as a key driver of innovation has still to be recognised in government policy this article discusses public procurement as one of the key elements of a demand oriented innovation policy the paper starts by signaling the new significance of public procurement for innovation policy strategies at the eu level and in a range of european countries it then defines the concept of public procurement and embeds this concept within a taxonomy of innovation policies the rationales and justifications of public procurement policies to spur innovation are discussed followed by a consideration of the challenges and potential pitfalls as well as appropriate institutional arrangements and strategies including some recent empirical examples of good practice it concludes by confronting the public procurement approach with two of the most common objections to it and by considering future prospects

socioeconomic development and electricity consumption a cross country analysis using the random coefficient method this paper analyses the relationship between electricity consumption and socioeconomic variables by estimating the electricity consumption function on the basis of single year cross country data and using ols and random coefficient rc methods the latter method yields both mean response as well as country specific coefficients while electricity consumption is found to rise with socioeconomic development it is found to be inelastic with respect to changes in all the variables the estimated country specific coefficients with respect to per capita gnp and share of industry in gdp are found not to vary across countries indicating that the impact of these variables on electricity consumption is similar across countries on the other hand the impact of other variables years of schooling gdp growth urbanization and population density is found to vary substantially across countries

the contribution of foreign direct investment to clean energy use carbon emissions and economic growth the paper investigates the contributions of foreign direct investment fdi net inflows to clean energy use carbon emissions and economic growth the paper employs cointegration tests to examine a long run equilibrium relationship among the variables and fixed effects models to examine the magnitude of fdi contributions to the other variables the paper analyzes panel data of 19 nations of the g20 from 1971 to 2009 the test results indicate that fdi has played an important role in economic growth for the g20 whereas it limits its impact on an increase in co2 emissions in the economies the research finds no compelling evidence of fdi link with clean energy use given the results the paper discusses fdi s potential role in achieving green growth goals

toward to economic growth without emission growth the role of urbanization and industrialization in china and india abstract the contradiction between economic growth and carbon emissions in china and india is the most prominent in the world both countries have faced tremendous pressures to curb carbon emissions because they are major source of new added emission sources meanwhile both countries have faced greater pressures to achieve industrialization and urbanization in order to eradicate poverty better understanding the decoupling status and its drivers can serve to develop effective policy to achieve economic growth without an increase in emission this paper comparatively analyses the decoupling effect of the economic growth from the carbon emissions as well as its drivers during the period 1980 2014 in china and india the tapio decoupling model was used to analyze the decoupling status and the co integration theory and the impulse response functions were applied to investigate the effects of urbanization industrialization per capita gdp and carbon emission intensity to decoupling the results show that china mainly performed a weak decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions in 1980 2014 while the decoupling status of india was no regular in china carbon emission intensity is the biggest contributor of decoupling followed by urbanization per capita gdp and industrialization in india the biggest driver of decoupling is also the carbon emission intensity followed by urbanization industrialization and per capita gdp therefore improving energy efficiency is the best policy to toward economic growth without emission growth in china and india

science technology and innovation policies in small and developing economies the case of central america in the last decade there has been an increasing recognition among central american policy makers of the central importance of science technology and innovation sti for inclusive and sustainable economic growth based on higher productivity this paper aims to study current sti policies in those countries and explore whether this increasing acknowledgement has come along with new and more active policies empirical evidence collected through questionnaire based interviews with high level government officials in each country shows that central american governments have built public organisations and institutions to support sti such as laws national plans and a wide variety of policy instruments yet available science and technology indicators illustrate that the results are still meagre this paper identifies eight barriers faced by these governments when designing and implementing sti policies

does fdi influence renewable energy consumption an analysis of sectoral fdi impact on renewable and non renewable industrial energy consumption this study examines the link between foreign direct investment fdi and energy demand fdi is a source of financing that allows businesses to grow at the same time fdi can be a source of innovation that promotes energy efficiency existing evidence on the impact of aggregate fdi inflows on energy consumption is scarce and inconclusive in the current study we disaggregate fdi inflows into mining manufacturing total services and financial services components and examine the impact of these fdi flows on renewable and non renewable industrial energy sources for 74 countries for the period 1985 2012 we employ a blundell bond dynamic panel estimator to control for endogeneity and omitted variable biases in our panels the results point broadly to an energy consumption reducing effect with respect to non renewable sources of energy and an energy consumption augmenting effects with respect to renewable energy we find that these effects vary in magnitude and significance by sectoral fdi

international evidence on the historical properties of business cycles we contrast properties of real quantities with those of price levels and stocks of money for ten countries over the last century although the magnitude of output fluctuations has varied across countries and periods relations among real quantities have been remarkably uniform properties of price levels however exhibit striking differences between periods inflation rates are more persistent after world war ii than before and price level fluctuations are typically procyclical before world war ii and countercyclical afterward fluctuations in money are less highly correlated with output in the postwar period but are no more persistent than in earlier periods jel e32 e31

urbanization energy consumption and emissions in the indian context a review abstract as the world s fastest growing major economy and home to nearly one fifth of the worlds population india a vibrant democracy is in the midst of a profound transformation and rapid urbanization urbanization improves the quality of life of people while promoting economic growth however it also increases energy consumption and is capable of generating an energy crisis urbanization has a significant impact on carbon dioxide co2 emissions as well this paper empirically investigates the temporal dynamic and causal relationships between urbanization energy consumption and emissions the study also aims to understand the urbanization process in india in terms of the level and tempo of urbanization and the urban growth morphology by utilizing the census data of 1901 2011 the rise in energy consumption and resulting emissions in the context of rapid urbanization is also reviewed to address these problems the study recommends a series of measures and a set of strategies that include energy intensity and emission intensity reduction measures through continuous monitoring information feedback systems introduction of industrial energy quota management incentives for energy efficient facilities shutting down of inefficient facilities and setting up of smart residential buildings reduction of distribution and transmission losses by investing in smart grids is also highly recommended

development of national innovation policy in small developing countries the case of cyprus abstract this paper analyses the concept of national innovation policy nip and puts forward arguments supporting the need for a nip for small developing economies like cyprus a brief outline is given of the science technology infrastructure and current innovation related policies in cyprus while the attitudes of owners managers of private manufacturing firms towards these policies based on a research survey are examined the survey reveals an ambivalent attitude towards nip which is probably due to unrealistic expectations as well as inefficiency in design and implementation of innovation policy measures case research confirms these conclusions and highlights the importance of nip for private firms despite the rhetoric of their managers against it the formulation of a specific nip for cyprus is then considered from which lessons for other developing countries are drawn

co2 emissions energy consumption trade and income a comparative analysis of china and india in order to prevent the destabilisation of the earth s biosphere co2 emissions must be reduced quickly and significantly the causes of co2 emissions by individual countries need to be apprehended in order to understand the processes required for reducing emissions around the globe china and india are the two largest transitional countries and growing economies but are in two entirely different categories in terms of structural changes in growth trade and energy use co2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels have significantly increased in the recent past this paper compares china and india using the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the ardl methodology to test the long and short run relationships between growth trade energy use and endogenously determined structural breaks the co2 emissions in china were influenced by per capita income structural changes and energy consumption a similar causal connection cannot be established for india with regard to structural changes and co2 emissions because india s informal economy is much larger than china s india possesses an extraordinarily large number of micro enterprises that are low energy consumers and not competitive enough to reach international markets understanding these contrasting scenarios is prerequisite to reaching an international agreement on climate change affecting these two countries

modeling undesirable factors in efficiency evaluation abstract data envelopment analysis dea measures the relative efficiency of decision making units dmus with multiple performance factors which are grouped into outputs and inputs once the efficient frontier is determined inefficient dmus can improve their performance to reach the efficient frontier by either increasing their current output levels or decreasing their current input levels however both desirable good and undesirable bad factors may be present for example if inefficiency exists in production processes where final products are manufactured with a production of wastes and pollutants the outputs of wastes and pollutants are undesirable and should be reduced to improve the performance using the classification invariance property we show that the standard dea model can be used to improve the performance via increasing the desirable outputs and decreasing the undesirable outputs the method can also be applied to situations when some inputs need to be increased to improve the performance the linearity and convexity of dea are preserved through our proposal

does environmental degradation shackle economic growth a panel data investigation on 11 asian countries sustainable economic growth needs to be the primary objective of every government including developing asian countries to improve the social welfare of the people therefore to achieve the desirable level of sustainable economic growth environmental degradation must be controlled without lowering real growth and the well being of the society this study empirically investigates the impact of environmental degradation by co2 emissions on the economic growth of 11 asian countries between 1990 and 2011 based on the nature of the data traditional panel estimation techniques encompassing fixed effects and random effects are employed in which the results of hausman s test and other tests show that the use of fixed effects is preferable over the random effect estimator empirical results exhibit that environmental degradation has a significantly negative impact on economic growth empirical findings also suggest that environmental degradation should be regulated therefore environmentally enlightened management policies for the decrease of co2 emissions and fuel consumption by transportation and industries need to be pursued by asian countries the adoption of safe carbon emission cut back policies is a promising path to sustainable economic growth

policy uncertainty lender of last resort and the real economy abstract a reduction in lender of last resort lolr policy uncertainty positively affects bank lending and propagates to investment and employment we exploit a unique policy that reduced uncertainty regarding the availability of future lolr funding for banks as a quasi natural experiment using micro level data on banks firms and loans in portugal we generate cross sectional variation in banks exposure to uncertainty and find that the size of the haircut subsidy the gap between private market and central bank security valuations plays a key role in the propagation of the shock to lending and the real economy

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from the commonwealth of independent states abstract this study examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for eleven countries of the commonwealth of independent states over the period 1991 2005 within a multivariate panel data framework based on pedroni 1999 pedroni 2004 heterogeneous panel cointegration test and corresponding error correction model cointegration is present between real gdp energy consumption real gross fixed capital formation and labor force with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant the results of the error correction model reveal the presence of unidirectional causality from energy consumption to economic growth in the short run while bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the long run thus the results lend support for the feedback hypothesis associated with the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

the fuelwood consumption in a rural area of greece abstract renewable energy sources are called to play an important role as regards the increasing energy demand worldwide in particular the need to address the problems created by the oil crises has distinguished the importance of renewable energy in economic development biomass is recognized as one of the most important renewable energy sources that can contribute decisively to the energy needs of modern society and the environment protection in both industrialized and developing countries a very important source of biomass is wood and especially fuelwood in greece because of the economic crisis there is an increased consumption of fuelwood especially in rural areas in this paper using a questionnaire and descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis we explore the determinants of fuelwood consumption in a rural area in order to propose appropriate policies for the efficient supply of the market

gains from anchoring inflation expectations evidence from the taper tantrum shock abstract have improvements in monetary policy frameworks increased emerging market resilience to external shocks this paper exploits the may 2013 taper tantrum episode in the united states to study the reaction of 18 large emerging markets to an external shock conditioning on their degree of inflation expectations anchoring we find that while the tapering announcement negatively affected growth prospects regardless of the level of anchoring countries with weakly anchored inflation expectations experienced larger exchange rate pass through to consumer prices and higher inflation these findings suggest that gains in inflation expectations anchoring can improve central bank s policy trade offs when facing external shocks

an econometric analysis of residential consumption of fuelwood in a mountainous prefecture of northern greece abstract biomass is a renewable energy source of increasing importance especially since the energy policies of countries today are largely focused on renewable energy it is a renewable energy source with significant potential to contribute to the energy needs of modern society both for developing and developed countries around the world one very important source of biomass is wood and fuelwood in particular this article aims at providing an empirical analysis of household fuelwood consumption and the determinants of the choice to use the specific energy for heating and cooking in a district of northern greece in the current empirical analysis several household fuelwood consumption models are employed such as glm tobit and heckman regression based techniques the results show that household sociological and economical characteristics as well as more general environmental issues are suitable to explain differences towards fuelwood consumption for space heating and cooking we additionally evaluate the household fuelwood consumption for heating through the statistical analyses conducted

informational frictions and the credit crunch in this paper i estimate the magnitude of an informational friction limiting credit reallocation to firms during the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis because lenders rely on private information when deciding which relationship to end borrowers looking for a new lender are adversely selected i show how to separately identify private information from information common to all lenders but unobservable to the econometrician by using bank shocks within a discrete choice model of relationships quantitatively these informational frictions appear to be too small to explain the credit crunch in the u s syndicated corporate loan market

business cycles in international historical perspective business cycle models seek to answer the question of why economies go through cycles of recession and recovery or boom and bust any theory of the business cycle makes two sorts of claims what shocks are most important in disturbing the economy and what economic structure is necessary for propagating these shocks for example one common explanation of business cycles begins with monetary shocks and then seeks to explain why monetary shocks are not purely neutral as neoclassical theory would have it and instead have real effects at least in the short term early models in this vein were often implicitly or explicitly based on the proposition that markets do not clear continuously early equilibrium real business cycle theories instead emphasized the importance of real shocks especially to technology which may cause socially efficient fluctuations even when markets are always in equilibrium more recent models have attempted to marry the equilibrium approach to macroeconomics with the substantive keynesian ideas that money is not neutral and that economic fluctuations are costly new keynesian theories of the business cycle admit the possibility of a number of economic shocks including monetary and technology shocks but then focus on explaining how nominal price rigidities within the economy can turn these shocks into recessions or booms other models show that business cycles driven by keynesian animal spirits are consistent with rigorous microfoundations and rational expectations seeking empirical evidence for and against these various approaches we turn business cycle theories loose on perhaps the greatest macroeconomic laboratory

debt deflation theory and evidence abstract in the early 1990s the most severe recessions occurred in those countries which had experienced the largest increases in private debt burdens was this an accident of history or did it reflect deeper forces affecting market economies the paper comprises three parts first it presents three stylised facts about debt and its impact on consumption growth in the 1930s and the 1990s second it discusses the reception of irving fisher s work on debt deflation by his contemporaries and argues that it is helpful to think of debt deflation as a real business cycle phenomenon third there is a theoretical discussion of the reaction of debt and consumption to shocks in the context of a model of precautionary saving central to the model is the role of distributional shocks which implies that aggregate demand may be a nonmonotonic function of the price of assets in terms of the consumption good multiple equilibria may exist leading to the possibility of financial instability the analysis of debt deflation requires the construction of real business cycle models without a representative consumer

dissecting the cycle a methodological investigation following burns and mitchell we define the cycle as a pattern in the level of aggregate economic activity an algorithm to locate turning points is developed as is a new measure of pro cyclicality a link between turning points and the moments of the series is established thereby providing the statistical foundation that burns and mitchell s work lacked using these tools we are able to dissect cycles in terms of the contributions made by trend growth volatility serial correlation and non linear effects we dissect several models and find little evidence that certain non linear effects are important to the nature of business cycles

foreign direct investment and decoupling between energy and gross domestic product in developing countries on a sample of 20 developing countries we noticed a clear decline in the energy intensity as foreign direct investment increases the reason for that probably is the use of modern technologies that came with foreign direct investment i e a leapfrogging over the old fashioned traditional technologies in use in these countries

foreign direct investment co2 emissions nexus in middle east and north african countries importance of biomass energy consumption abstract this study examines the association between foreign direct investment fdi and carbon emissions for the middle east and north african mena region in 1990 2015 including biomass energy consumption as an additional determinant of carbon emissions we apply the generalized method of moments gmm to validate the existence of the pollution haven hypothesis phh the n shaped association is also validated between fdi and carbon emissions the link between economic growth and carbon emissions is inverted u and n shaped that is it satisfies the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypotheses biomass energy use lowers carbon emissions and the causality analysis reveals that fdi causes co2 emissions clearly the results confirm the existence of a feedback effect between economic growth and carbon emissions the connection between biomass energy use and co2 emissions is also bidirectional the empirical findings suggest policy makers to design comprehensive trade and energy policies by targeting the cleaner production practices for not only to ensure environmental sustainability but also to fulfil the objectives of sustainable development goals

impacts of urbanization and industrialization on energy consumption co2 emissions does the level of development matter urbanization and industrialization have significant impacts on energy consumption and co2 emissions but their relationship varies at different stages of economic development taking cognizance of heterogeneity and the ratchet effect this paper adopts the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat framework as a starting point and re estimates the relationship using different panel date models the main results are obtained by dynamic panel threshold regression models which divide a balanced panel dataset of 73 countries over the period of 1971 2010 into four groups according to their annual income levels the key results are 1 in the low income group urbanization decreases energy consumption but increases co2 emissions 2 in the middle low income and high income groups industrialization decreases energy consumption but increases co2 emissions while urbanization significantly increases both energy consumption and co2 emissions 3 for the middle high income group urbanization does not significantly affect energy consumption but does hinder the growth of emissions while industrialization was found to have an insignificant impact on energy consumption and co2 emissions 4 from the population perspective it produces positive effects on energy consumption and also increases emissions except for the high income group these novel methodology and findings reveal that different development strategies of urbanization and industrialization should be pursued depending on the levels of income in a bid to conserve energy and reduce emissions

re visiting the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis for malaysia fresh evidence from ardl bounds testing approach abstract this study reinvestigates the presence of environmental kuznets curve ekc in the context of malaysia over the period of 1971 2012 for this purpose the impact of real gdp per capita financial development trade openness foreign direct investments and energy consumption on carbon dioxide co2 emissions is empirically examined within the ekc framework the study employed the autoregressive distribute lagged ardl bound test to investigate the long run relationship between the study variables for robustness the study conjointly applied the dynamic ordinary least square dols method the granger causality test is exercised to test the causal relationship among the variables for both short and long run empirical results of ardl bound test approach suggest the presence of ekc hypothesis for malaysia the granger causality test results indicate that energy consumption and carbon emissions have a bidirectional relationship while other variables uni directionally cause the co2 emissions whereas in the short run there is no bidirectional causality between the variables while uni directional causalities run from trade openness and fdi towards economic growth financial development and co2 emissions the unidirectional causality from other variables towards co2 emissions supports the evidence of the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis as this appears in the countries where the ekc is validated

are left wing party strength and corporatism good for the environment evidence from panel analysis of air pollution in oecd countries abstract the effect of left wing party strength and corporatism on air pollution levels in up to 21 oecd countries over the period 1980 or 1990 1999 is tested with both fixed effects and random effects estimators controlling for scale composition technique as well as aggregate time effects robust evidence is found that parliamentary green left libertarian party strength is associated with lower pollution levels the rise of ecologically oriented parties has thus had a real impact on air pollution levels traditional left wing party strength is possibly also associated with lower pollution levels but the evidence is less consistent and robust combined left wing party strength in government is possibly associated with higher pollution levels but this result is also far from robust and is practically small no evidence is found for a consistent systematic impact of corporatism on pollution levels

bank asset quality monetary policy pass through the funding mix of european firms is weighted heavily towards bank credit which underscores the importance of efficient pass through of monetary policy actions to lending rates faced by firms euro area pass through has shifted from being relatively homogenous to being fragmented and incomplete since the financial crisis distressed loan books are a crisis hangover with direct implications for profitability hampering banks ability to supply credit and lower loan pricing in response to reductions in the policy rate this paper presents a parsimonious model to decompose the cost of lending and highlight the role of asset quality in diminishing pass through using bank level data over the period 2008 2014 we empirically test the implications of the model we show that a one percentage point increase in the impairment ratio lowering short run pass through by 3 we find that banks with severely impaired balance sheets do not adjust their loan pricing in response to changes in the policy rate at all

does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower co2 emissions a cross country analysis despite the relationship between urbanization energy use and co2 emissions has been extensively studied in recent years little attention has been paid to differences in development stages or income levels most previous studies have implicitly assumed that the impact of urbanization is homogenous for all countries this assumption can be questionable as there are many characteristic differences among countries of different levels of affluence this paper investigates empirically the effects of urbanization on energy use and co2 emissions with consideration of the different development stages using the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat model and a balanced panel dataset of 99 countries over the period 1975 2005 the findings suggest that the impact of urbanization on energy use and emissions varies across the stages of development surprisingly urbanization decreases energy use in the low income group while it increases energy use in the middle and high income groups the impact of urbanization on emissions is positive for all the income groups but it is more pronounced in the middle income group than in the other income groups these novel findings not only help advance the existing literature but also can be of special interest to policy makers and urban planners

the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the asean countries abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among the association of south east asian nations asean 4 members namely indonesia malaysia singapore and thailand using modern time series techniques for the period 1971 2002 the results indicate that there is a bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in malaysia and singapore this means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in the two countries however uni directional causality runs from economic growth to electricity consumption in indonesia and thailand without any feedback effect thus electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating economic side effects in the two countries

testing for linear and nonlinear granger causality in the stock price volume relation linear and nonlinear granger causality tests are used to examine the dynamic relation between daily dow jones stock returns and percentage changes in new york stock exchange trading volume we find evidence of significant bidirectional nonlinear causality between returns and volume we also examine whether the nonlinear causality from volume to returns can be explained by volume serving as a proxy for information flow in the stochastic process generating stock return variance as suggested by clark s 1973 latent common factor model after controlling for volatility persistence in returns we continue to find evidence of nonlinear causality from volume to returns

credit crises money and contractions an historical view abstract the relatively infrequent nature of major credit distress events makes an historical approach particularly useful using a combination of historical narrative and econometric techniques we identify major periods of credit distress from 1875 to 2007 examine the extent to which credit distress arises as part of the transmission of monetary policy and document the subsequent effect on output using turning points defined by the harding pagan algorithm we identify and compare the timing duration amplitude and co movement of cycles in money credit and output regressions show that financial distress events exacerbate business cycle downturns both in the 19th and 20th centuries and that a confluence of such events makes recessions even worse

reserve accumulation and financial crises from individual protection to systemic risk abstract this paper provides a new perspective on the relationship between countries international reserve holdings and financial crises while the local view holds that reserves may prevent domestic crises it overlooks that the accumulation of reserves relaxes the financing constraint of the reserve currency country and may cause a financial crisis in the centre which is transmitted globally according to this global view reserve accumulation might destabilize the international financial system since the crisis affects all countries alike the accumulation of reserves imposes a negative externality on non accumulating countries we integrate this idea in a theoretical model of the optimal amount of reserves and illustrate the gap between local and global optimality the consideration of systemic risk lowers the demand for reserves moreover if a supranational authority determines the optimal level of reserves it internalizes the negative externality and accumulates fewer reserves a macroprudential tax on reserve hoardings might implement the socially optimal solution our calibration analysis shows that these considerations are economically significant they lower the optimal amount of reserves in the benchmark case by 45

international house price cycles monetary policy and credit abstract we evaluate three alternative predictors of house price corrections anticipated tightenings of monetary policy deviations of house prices from fundamentals and rapid credit growth a new cross country measure of monetary policy expectations based on an international term structure model with time varying risk premiums is constructed house price overvaluation is estimated via an asset pricing model the variables are incorporated into a panel logit regression model that estimates the likelihood of a large house price correction in 18 oecd countries the results show that corrections are predicted by increases in the market s forecast of higher policy rates the estimated degree of house price overvaluation also contains significant information about subsequent price reversals in contrast to the financial crisis literature credit growth is less important all of these variables help forecast recessions

environment kuznets curve for co2 emissions a cointegration analysis for china abstract this study examines the long run relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of china by employing time series data of 1975 2005 in particular the study aims at testing whether environmental kuznets curve ekc relationship between co 2 emissions and per capita real gdp holds in the long run or not auto regressive distributed lag ardl methodology is employed for empirical analysis a quadratic relationship between income and co 2 emission has been found for the sample period supporting ekc relationship the results of granger causality tests indicate one way causality runs through economic growth to co 2 emissions the results of this study also indicate that the carbon emissions are mainly determined by income and energy consumption in the long run trade has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on co 2 emissions

does foreign direct investment promote growth exploring the role of financial markets on linkages abstract do multinational companies generate positive externalities for the host country the evidence so far is mixed varying from beneficial to detrimental effects of foreign direct investment fdi on growth with many studies that find no effect in order to provide an explanation for this empirical ambiguity we formalize a mechanism that emphasizes the role of local financial markets in enabling fdi to promote growth through backward linkages using realistic parameter values we quantify the response of growth to fdi and show that an increase in the share of fdi leads to higher additional growth in financially developed economies relative to financially under developed ones

appropriate intellectual property protection and economic growth in countries at different levels of development this paper examines how the role of patents and utility models in innovation and economic growth varies by level of economic development using a panel dataset of over 70 countries we find that patent protection is an important determinant of innovation and that patentable innovations contribute to economic growth in developed countries but not in developing instead in developing economies a minor form of intellectual property rights iprs namely utility models is conducive to innovation and growth controlling for other factors using korean firm level data as a case study we find that utility model innovations contribute to firm performance when firms are technologically lagging and that those minor innovations can be a learning device and thus a stepping stone for developing more patentable inventions later on upon reaching higher levels of technological capabilities firms become more reliant upon patents and less on utility models thus the lesson here is that patent protection enhances innovation and economic growth in countries where the capacity to conduct innovative research exists where this capacity is weaker a system that provides incentives to conduct minor incremental inventions is more conducive to growth the significance of this paper is to emphasize the importance not just of the strength of iprs but of the appropriate type of iprs for economic development

structure and environmental impact of global energy consumption abstract this paper presents information on global energy consumption by fuel type liquid fuels coal natural gas renewables and nuclear and sectors buildings industrial transportation and electricity and environmental impact of global energy consumption sox nox and co2 emissions there is a strong relationship between energy consumption and economic growth the global financial crisis has affected the global economic growth violently the governments have recently adopted some effective measures to fight against the global financial crisis the structure of energy consumption and the conditions of sox nox and co2 emissions affect the global changes acid rain and greenhouse effect today considerable effort is being devoted to reduce co2 emissions because of the kyoto protocol on climate change this publication presents multidisciplinary perspectives on the interrelated topics of energy consumption energy security and energy policy additionally the present study examines the relationship between energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission

have economic fluctuations been dampened a look at evidence outside the united states abstract until recently economists of all beliefs took it for granted that the severity of economic fluctuations had decreased sharply following world war ii recent work has challenged this view this study attempts to shed light on whether there was a true reduction in the severity of economic fluctuations by examining the experience of six european countries with one exception these countries did not experience a substantial reduction in the severity of the business cycle

the effects of systemic banking crises in the inter war period abstract this paper examines the time profile of the impact of systemic banking crises on gdp and industrial production using a panel of 24 countries over the inter war period and compares this to the post war experience of these countries we show that banking crises have effects that induce medium term adjustments on economies focussing on an eight year horizon it is clear that the negative effects of systemic banking crises last over the entirety of this time horizon the effect has been identified for gdp and industrial production the adverse effect on the industrial sector stands out as being substantially larger in magnitude relative to the macroeconomic effect comparing the results across long run historical periods for the same selection of countries and variables identifies some differences that stand out the short term macroeconomic impact effects are much larger in the post war period suggesting that the propagation channels of shocks operate at a faster pace in the more recent period moreover the time profile of effects differs suggesting that modern policies may be modulating the temporal shape of the response to banking crises shocks however the broad magnitude of the adverse effect of banking crises remains comparable across these time periods

causality between energy and output in the long run though there is a very large literature examining whether energy use granger causes economic output or vice versa this literature is fairly inconclusive almost all existing studies use relatively short time series or panels with a relatively small time dimension additionally many recent papers continue to use what seem to be misspecified models we apply granger causality and cointegration techniques to a swedish time series data set on energy and economic growth spanning 150 years to test whether increases in energy use and energy quality have driven economic growth we show that these techniques are very sensitive to variable definition choice of additional variables in the model and sample periods all of the following appear to make a finding that energy causes growth more likely using multivariate models defining variables to better reflect their theoretical definition using larger samples and including appropriate structural breaks however it is also possible that the relationship between energy and growth has changed over time and that results from recent smaller samples reflect this energy prices have a significant causal impact on both energy use and output

a decision tree method for explaining household gas consumption the role of building characteristics socio demographic variables psychological factors and household behaviour abstract this research aims to develop a decision tree model for understanding actual gas consumption in residential buildings extending previous studies this study examined to what extent four different type of factors building characteristics socio demographics psychological factors and household behaviour can explain actual gas consumption of dutch households in 2017 and 2018 data were collected from 601 households a novel approach a decision tree method revealed that household gas consumption was related to building characteristics socio demographics and psychological factors while energy related behaviour in households was not uniquely related to gas consumption specifically house size building age and residence type building characteristics household income and employment status socio demographics and most notably egoistic values hedonic values environmental self identity perceived corporate environmental responsibility of the energy provider and social norm psychological factors predicted total actual household gas consumption these results illustrate that the novel integrated framework introduced in the paper yields a better understanding of actual household gas consumption the results have important practical implications and suggest that it would be important to target these three type of factors in policy aimed to reduce household gas consumption

impact of urbanization on energy demand an empirical study of the yangtze river economic belt in china abstract this paper provides an empirical assessment of the effects of china s urbanization on its energy demand for 2003 2014 using a dataset of 108 cities located in the yangtze river economic belt both demographic urbanization du and land urbanization lu are considered in the empirical analysis the results show that urbanization exerts significant and positive impacts on energy demand during the study period our empirical suggest that one unit rises in du and lu rises the energy demand by 48 85 91 62 and 65 54 68 09 respectively without with considering control variables the energy demand effects of urbanization still hold when considering spatial and heterogeneity factors these results are robust to alternative measures of urbanization and empirical model specifications our results indicate that policymakers should improve the quality of urbanization to promote the growth of high tech and high quality industries avoiding excessive energy consumption with extensive urbanization large cities should not be allowed to grow unchecked more attention should be paid to promote the development of medium sized cities and implement a balanced population distribution among different cities the energy demand structure industrial and residential primary and secondary renewable and nonrenewable should be optimized by introducing cleaner low carbon technology and its transformation

socio economic determinants of energy consumption an empirical survey for greece abstract the present study identifies and evaluates the macroeconomic factors that determine energy consumption in greece this study is based on annual time series data covering the period ranging from 1975 2013 the augmented dickey fuller adf test and kpss test are employed in order to test stationarity of the data confirming that all the variables are i 1 within the next step of the methodology we employed a vecm model in order to detect causality among the variables through the granger causality test similarly the impulse response analysis provides that urbanization infrastructure trade income population growth and foreign direct investment are the main determinants of energy consumption in greece during the period surveyed the findings suggest that in order to fulfill the energy demand in the country the decision makers need to formulate energy policy in favor of enlarging the supply of energy and especially renewable energy to foster the process of economic growth and development especially in the times of crisis the particular determinants are a necessity to initiate economic growth

macroprudential policy central banks and financial stability evidence from china abstract we study the chinese experience and provide evidence that central banks can play an active role in safeguarding financial stability the narrative approach is used to disentangle macropudential policy actions from monetary actions we show that reserve requirements window guidance supervisory pressure and housing market policies can be used for macroprudential purposes our var estimates suggest that well targeted macroprudential policy has immediate and persistent impact on credit but no statistically significant impact on output macroprudential policy can be used to retain financial stability without triggering an economic slowdown or as a complement to monetary policy to offset the buildup of financial vulnerabilities arising from monetary easing a well designed mix of these two policies helps to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability objectives which however requires central banks to maintain a multi instrument framework

the relationship amongst energy consumption foreign direct investment and output in developed and developing countries abstract the current study inspects the nexus amongst energy consumption fdi inflows and output in 75 countries meantime the period 1990 2010 we further examine this relationship with regard to developed as well as developing countries assembled from diverse geographic regions from the world the present results display that there is proof of bidirectional linkage concerning fdi and output per capita concerning renewable energy consumption and gross domestic product per capita and concerning non renewable energy and gross domestic product per capita in the three groups of countries developed all and developing in addition the judgments detect a bidirectional linkage concerning renewable energy consumption and fdi in developed countries an increase of 1 rate in renewable energy participates to improving fdi by 0 185 and at the same time an increase of fdi contributes to enhancing renewable energy by 0 292 nevertheless in the case of all and developing countries the results discover unidirectional link moving from foreign inflows to both sorts of energy in conclusion the policy recommendations of our empirical results are taken into consideration

the relationship between energy consumption energy prices and economic growth time series evidence from asian developing countries this paper estimates the causal relationships between energy consumption and income for india indonesia the philippines and thailand using cointegration and error correction modelling techniques the results indicate that in the short run unidirectional granger causality runs from energy to income for india and indonesia while bidirectional granger causality runs from energy to income for thailand and the philippines in the case of thailand and the philippines energy income and prices are mutually causal the study results do not support the view that energy and income are neutral with respect to each other with the exception of indonesia and india where neutrality is observed in the short run c 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classifications c22 q43 q48

urban concentration agglomeration economies and the level of economic development there is a view among planners in the developing nations that the process of economic development invariably results in the concentration of population in one or two primal cities there is also however considerable disagreement over whether this apparent relationship is either necessary or desirable proponents on the one hand argue that concentrated urbanization strongly supports industrial development through the realization of scale and agglomeration economies 2 dissenters from this view feel that urban concentration creates serious social costs and results more from historical or political forces than economic ones in this case policies aimed at decentralizing growth can achieve social objectives without sacrificing economic efficiency despite these deliberations it is surprising that there has been little or no empirical study of urban concentration on either a longitudinal or cross national basis the major related work which exists is williamson s research on economic development and income inequality 3 williamson demonstrates that as economic growth begins inequality initially increases but then diminishes in the more advanced stages of development this coincides with hirschman s4 view that industrialization eventually spreads into more backward areas reduc

predicting fuelwood prices in greece with the use of arima models artificial neural networks and a hybrid arima ann model abstract throughout history energy resources have acquired a strategic significance for the economic growth and social welfare of any country the large scale oil crisis of 1973 coupled with various environmental protection issues have led many countries to look for new alternative energy sources biomass and fuelwood in particular constitutes a major renewable energy source res that can make a significant contribution as a substitute for oil this paper initially provides a description of the contribution of renewable energy sources to the production of electricity and also examines the role of forests in the production of fuelwood in greece following this autoregressive integrated moving average arima models artificial neural networks ann and a hybrid model are used to predict the future selling prices of the fuelwood from broadleaved and coniferous species produced by greek state forest farms the use of the arima ann hybrid model provided the optimum prediction results thus enabling decision makers to proceed with a more rational planning for the production and fuelwood market

the real effects of the bank lending channel abstract this paper studies credit booms exploiting the spanish matched credit register over 2001 2009 we extend khwaja and mian 2008 s loan level estimator by incorporating firm level general equilibrium adjustments higher ex ante bank real estate exposure increases credit supply to non real estate firms but effects are neutralized by firm level adjustments for firms with existing banking relationships however higher bank real estate exposure increases risk taking by relaxing standards of existing borrowers cheaper longer term and less collateralized credit and by expanding credit on the extensive margin to first time borrowers that default substantially more results suggest that the mechanism at work is greater liquidity via securitization of real estate assets

coal consumption urbanization and trade openness linkage in indonesia abstract this paper explores the effects of economic growth urbanization industry and trade openness on coal consumption in indonesia over the period 1970 2015 to closely adhere to the environmental kuznets curve narratives we consider coal consumption which has been scarcely explored in the ekc debate as a proxy of environmental pressure we estimate the autoregressive distributed lag ardl method and confirm that the variables are cointegrated for long run linkage with the presence of structural breaks the empirical evidence showed that economic growth urbanization and trade openness increase coal consumption while decreasing share of secondary industry reduce it we also verify the existence of environmental kuznets curve having a vital role in the energy mix indonesia needs to restrain excessive coal consumption to enhance environmental quality our results also imply urbanization and trade openness are crucial factors on coal consumption consequently it should be taken into consideration in energy policy making process such as energy conservation policies in the residential sector and prioritize foreign investment which brings cutting edge coal technologies

factors determining energy consumption evidence from indonesia malaysia and thailand abstract the aim of this study is to verify empirically the impact of various factors on energy consumption in three asean countries namely indonesia malaysia and thailand over the period 1980 to 2012 after using sundry appropriate diagnostic tests for checking time series data the method of least square as an analytical technique is used for parameters estimation the findings validate that fdi inflows economic growth trade openness and human development index have positive and statistically significant impacts on energy consumption the other variable urbanization has positive and statistically significant impacts on energy consumption for thailand and indonesia only while the empirical results reveals that population growth rate has a positive and statistically significant relationship with energy consumption only in the case of malaysia so in the light of determinations of the study the policy implication is that energy policy needs to be orientated in favor of expanding the supply of energy to reach an enhanced degree of sustainable economic growth and development

financial liberalization financial sector development and growth evidence from malaysia abstract the objective of this paper is to examine whether financial development leads to economic growth or vice versa in the small open economy of malaysia using time series data from 1960 to 2001 we conduct cointegration and causality tests to assess the finance growth link by taking the real interest rate and financial repression into account the empirical evidence suggests that financial liberalization through removing the repressionist policies has a favorable effect in stimulating financial sector development financial depth and economic development are positively related but contrary to the conventional findings our results support robinson s view that output growth leads to higher financial depth in the long run

the risk of financial crises is there a role for income inequality abstract could macroeconomic factors such as income inequality be the real root cause of financial crises we explore a broad variety of financial and macroeconomic variables and employ a general to specific model selection process to find the most reliable predictors of financial crises in developed countries over a period of more than 100 years our in sample results indicate that income inequality has predictive power beyond loan growth and several other financial variables out of sample forecasts for individual predictors show that their predictive power tends to vary considerably over time but income inequality has predictive power in each forecasting period

energy consumption economic growth and co2 emissions in middle east and north african countries this article extends the recent findings of liu 2005 ang 2007 apergis et al 2009 and payne 2010 by implementing recent bootstrap panel unit root tests and cointegration techniques to investigate the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions energy consumption and real gdp for 12 middle east and north african countries mena over the period 1981 2005 our results show that in the long run energy consumption has a positive significant impact on co2 emissions more interestingly we show that real gdp exhibits a quadratic relationship with co2 emissions for the region as a whole however although the estimated long run coefficients of income and its square satisfy the ekc hypothesis in most studied countries the turning points are very low in some cases and very high in other cases hence providing poor evidence in support of the ekc hypothesis co2 emission reductions per capita have been achieved in the mena region even while the region exhibited economic growth over the period 1981 2005 the econometric relationships derived in this paper suggest that future reductions in co2 emissions per capita might be achieved at the same time as gdp per capita in the mena region continues to grow

a literature survey on energy growth nexus abstract this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of energy consumption economic growth and electricity consumption economic growth causality nexus the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of energy electricity in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of energy on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies a general observation from these studies is that the literature produced conflicting results and there is no consensus neither on the existence nor on the direction of causality between energy consumption electricity consumption and economic growth as a policy implication to avoid from conflicting and unreliable results the authors may use the autoregressive distributed lags bounds test two regime threshold co integration models panel data approach and multivariate models including new variables such as real gross fixed capital formation labor force carbon dioxide emissions population exchange rates interest rates etc thus the authors should focus more on the new approaches and perspectives rather than by employing usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries and different intervals of time

what drives the energy saving role of fdi and industrialization in east africa abstract analysis of the unconditional impacts of foreign direct inflows fdis and industrialization on energy intensity does not show the hidden roles of some economic conditions such as income and trade openness in this study we focused on the conditional impacts of fdis and industrialization on energy productivity using a panel data consisting of thirteen 13 east african countries covering 1980 2011 the baseline result shows that higher income and a well integrated economy are pro energy productive but fdis and intense industrialization are anti energy productive in the sub region this result remains robust even when we exclude the high income group and control for income group effects income significantly promotes energy productivity more in low income group than middle income group intense industrialization and fdis significantly decreases energy productivity only in low income countries trade openness significantly promotes energy productivity only in middle income group we have shown that fdis and income intense industrialization and fdis and intense industrialization and globalization are complementary forces that promote energy productivity in east africa but this is more evident for the middle income group than the low income group in the sub region based on the result we recommend a quadruplet programme called the growth industrial foreign investment and trade programme giftp last our result suggests that unconditional analysis of energy productivity should not be seen as an end in itself but a basis for further analysis

cross of euros the eurozone currently confronts severe short run macroeconomic adjustment problems and a deficient institutional architecture that has to be reformed in the longer run europe s efforts at economic and monetary union are historically unprecedented however the gold standard provides lessons regarding what will and won t work macroeconomically and politically in the short run while us history provides long run lessons regarding appropriate institutional structures the latter also suggests that institutional reform only happens at times of great crisis and that it cannot be taken for granted the eurozone s leaders may therefore ultimately have to take heed of the lessons of history regarding currency union breakups