has canadian house price growth been excessive the dramatic rise in the ratio of canada s average house price to average rent has led to speculation that there is a bubble in the canadian housing market others have argued however that the currently high level of house prices may be rationalized by the low cost of financing given the decline in interest rates over the last two decades in this article we assess these arguments through the lens of a simple asset pricing model applied to city level data we quantify the extent to which excess growth in canadian house prices depends on the nature of the current regime governing real interest rates expectations of rent growth in different cities and variations in property taxes

efficiency wage models of unemployment one view h lorne carmichael persistent wage rigidity and involuntary unemployment appear to be recurrent problems in most economies what could be preventing the wage adjustment necessary to clear the labor market many recent papers claim to have found the answer in efficiency wage models this paper surveys this literature and attempts to evaluate its accomplishments it concludes that the efficiency wage models fail to explain wage rigidity or persistent involuntary unemployment persistent involuntary unemployment of workers is a recurrent problem in labor markets all over the world unemployed workers seem unable to find work even though they are willing to accept lower wages than those being paid employed workers with similar skills what could be preventing wages from adjusting to clear these markets many recent papers known collectively as the efficiency wage literature now claim to have the answer this paper will survey the efficiency wage literature and critically evaluate some of its accomplishments efficiency wage models have already been examined by yellen 1984 katz 1986 and stiglitz 1987 and have received generally favorable reviews this paper is more critical its overall conclusion is that efficiency wage models provide some useful insights into the workings of the labor market but they do not provide a satisfactory account of wage rigidity or involuntary unemployment there are at least five separate versions of the efficiency wage model they share a common structure however and this is outlined in the first section of the paper this section also attempts to relate efficiency wage models to other recent models of unemployment section ii examines and criticizes the different approaches in detail section iii evaluates the achievements of this approach and suggests some directions for future work i a general efficiency wage model efficiency wage models as the name suggests are first of all models of wages they generate unemployment by showing that firms will sometimes want to set wages at non market clearing levels it is useful to begin therefore by reviewing how wages and employment are determined in some related models in a perfectly competitive labor market the wage for each type of labor is adjusted constantly to maintain equality of supply and demand overall employment fluctuates in response to demand changes as workers move up and down their labor supply curves unemployment is voluntary in that anyone who is not working prefers that state to employment at the going wage for people of his skills as well the value of a worker s marginal product is equal to the marginal value of his leisure so there are no unexploited wage bargains between unemployed workers and firms this model is successful in predicting the long term response of wages to shifts in demand and supply but it is clear that in the short run its depiction of voluntary unemployment and flexible wages is unrealistic a natural way to generate more realism is to assume that wages are inflexible in the short run in this case a reduction in demand away from a long run equilibrium will lead to rationing of jobs by employers as they attempt to stay on their labor demand curves the unemployment here is involuntary in that the unemployed would prefer to be working at the going wage and is inefficient in that there are lost gains from trade between these workers and firms the weakness of this model is that it is silent about the mechanism that keeps wages rigid unemployed workers who offer to work for less than the fixed wage ought to find work the early implicit contract models of azariadis 1975 baily 1974 and gordon 1974 provide one explanation for wage rigidity these models introduced the idea that wages can do more than just clear the market for labor wages in an implicit contract model are used to shift the risk generated by uncertain output market conditions from risk averse workers to the risk neutral firm

the dispersion of employees wage increases and firm performance previous studies examining intra firm wage dispersion and firm performance have focused on wage levels the authors of this study argue that for purposes of comparing wage dispersion s positive inc

the provision of public goods under alternative electoral incentives politicians who care about the spoils of office may underprovide a public good because its benefits cannot be targeted to voters as easily as pork barrel spending we compare a winner take all system where all the spoils go to the winner to a proportional system where the spoils of office are split among candidates proportionally to their share of the vote in a winner take all system the public good is provided less often than in a proportional system when the public good is particularly desirable we then consider the electoral college system and show that it is particularly subject to this inefficiency

stable governments and the allocation of policy portfolios different members of coalition governments typically have responsibility for different aspects or dimensions of policy such responsibilities are allocated as portfolios to government members given a distribution of such portfolios final government policy is derived as the accumulation of individual members decisions in regard to their respective responsibilities we develop a portfolio allocation model of government formation and policy decision in multiparty legislatures in particular we focus on stable portfolio allocations where a stable allocation is one that yields a policy that no legislative coalition is willing or able to overturn several notions of stability are considered and related to the usual concept of the core among the results are that although stable allocations are not guaranteed such allocations can exist with minority governments and that final policy outcomes associated with stable governments need not be centrist

assessing global economic activity linkages the role played by united states germany and china abstract economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and financial links among countries this work aims to analyze the possible effects of a potential economic growth downturn or one large negative shock in china germany and united states on the growth of other economies we use a univariate global autoregressive approach to assess interdependence across 38 countries we simulate two types of phenomena the first one is a one time large shock of 2 5 standard deviations the second experiment simulates the effect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies our results suggest that the united states play the role of a global economy affecting countries all over the globe whereas germany and china play an important regional role

terms of trade tariffs and labor market adjustment in developing countries a three goods model importables exportables and nontradables is used to analyze labor market adjustment to changes in the terms of trade and import tariffs for a small open economy first a three goods four factor model labor and capital specific to each sector is developed and used to investigate how an exogenously generated change in a country s terms of trade affects labor allocation and wages in the short run next a more traditional three goods two factor model is used to examine the effects in the long run the analysis is carried out under alternative assumptions regarding wage flexibility full flexibility economy wide real wage rigidity and sector specific real wage rigidity

labor turnover and the natural rate of unemployment efficiency wage vs frictional unemployment wage and unemployment responses to changes in economic environment are compared for efficiency wage and frictional models changes in aggregate demand persistence of job specific shocks cost of living and unemployment benefits are considered wages and unemployment move in the same direction in the two models except that an upward shift in aggregate labor demand can reduce the real wage in the efficiency wage but not the frictional model in a numerical simulation calibrated to u s data real productivity shocks in the efficiency wage model yield a ratio of unemployment to wage variability close to that of the united states

the changing responsiveness of wages to price level shocks explicit and implicit indexation the article provides evidence for the u s over the period 1961 84 that the responsiveness of nonunion wages to price level shocks changes through time much as the degree of indexation in union contracts does suggesting that there exists implicit as well as explicit indexation when coupled with the result from previous research that indexation responds positively to inflation uncertainty the findings indicate that greater inflation uncertainty may lead to reduced overall wage rigidity in the context of a rational expectations model with long term wage contracts a decline in the effectiveness of an activist monetary policy could result

electoral systems and public spending we study the effects of electoral institutions on the size and composition of public expenditure in oecd and latin american countries we emphasize the distinction between purchases of goods and services which are easier to target geographically and transfers which are easier to target across social groups we present a theoretical model in which voters anticipating government policymaking under different electoral systems have an incentive to elect representatives more prone to transfer public good spending in proportional majoritarian systems the model also predicts higher total primary spending in proportional majoritarian systems when the share of transfer spending is high low after dee ning rigorous measures of proportionality to be used in the empirical investigation we e nd considerable support for our predictions

did henry ford pay efficiency wages we examine henry ford s introduction of the five dollar day in 1914 in an effort to evaluate the relevance of efficiency wage theories of wage and employment determination we conclude that the ford experience strongly supports the relevance of these theories ford s decision to increase wages dramatically is most plausibly the consequence of labor problems of the kind efficiency wage theorists stress the structure of the five dollar day program is consistent with the predictions of efficiency wage theories there is vivid evidence that the introduction of the five dollar day resulted in substantial queues for ford jobs significant increases in ford productivity and profits accompanied the new regime

earnings determination and labour markets gran santiago chile 1978 abstract the purpose of this study is twofold first to ascertain whether or not there are statistical differences in the structure of earnings functions among workers in various sectors of economic activity second to provide a test of the human capital approach in the explanation of earning differentials among wage earners using individual characteristics of full time wage earners in santiago the results show that the structures of earnings functions are not statistically different across sectors of economic activity also the application of a human capital model shows that about 50 percent of the relative dispersion of earnings may be attributed to differences in schooling and experience

interest rate pass through a meta analysis of the literature the interest rate pass through describes how changes in a reference rate the monetary policy money market or t bill rate transmit to bank lending rates this paper reviews the empirical literature on the interest rate pass through and systematizes it by means of meta analysis and meta regressions the paper finds systematically lower estimated pass through coefficients in studies that focus on transmission to long term lending rates consumer lending rates and average lending rates the interest rate pass through is significantly influenced by country macro financial and institutional factors the estimated pass through tends to be stronger for economies with deeper capital markets measured by market capitalization interestingly central bank independence rising from lower levels can reduce interest rate pass through while central bank independence rising from already high levels can boost the pass through

a theory of dual labor markets with application to industrial policy discrimination and keynesian unemployment this paper develops a model of dual labor markets based on employers need to motivate workers in order to elicit effort from their workers employers may find it optimal to pay more than the going wage this changes fundamentally the character of labor markets the model is applied to a wide range of labor market phenomena it provides a coherent framework for understanding the claims of industrial policy advocates it also can provide the basis for a theory of occupational segregation and discrimination that will not be eroded by market forces finally the model provides the basis for a theory of involuntary unemployment

party system nationalization and the scope of public policy the importance of cross district constituency similarity party system nationalization is supposed to result in the provision of nationally focused policy including spending priorities with widespread benefits conversely democracies characterized by parties with geographically narrower patterns of support are suspected of parochial policies including targetable spending the authors show that party system nationalization alone is not sufficient to generate national benefits in addition governing parties constituents must be similar across districts nationalization can occur because parties are making the same appeal to similar constituents across different electoral districts but it can also occur because parties are skillfully tailoring different appeals to diverse constituencies across districts in the latter case the authors expect to see the targeted spending priorities typically associated with party systems that are not nationalized the authors test for the conditional effect of party system nationalization in 36 elections across 20 countries u

efficiency wages and currency devaluation abstract this paper applies the efficiency wage theory which is a powerful instrument to shed light on why involuntary unemployment is persistent in the labor market to evaluate the effect of currency devaluation in an open economy it is found that a currency devaluation will definitely depress the domestic output in the presence of the efficiency wage consideration this framework can be viewed as a theoretical structure in explaining the empirical findings of contractionary devaluation

are we entering the age of involuntary degrowth promethean technologies and declining returns of innovation any reflections on an eventual transition towards a degrowth society have to take into account the current crisis in the dominant system and question whether the latter will be able to grow again or not in order for the latter to happen the role played by technological innovation is crucial this paper starts by reconsidering georgescu roegen s definition of promethean techniques and tainter s principle of declining marginal returns with the aim of providing within the common framework of the theory of complex systems a sound theoretical basis for the analysis of the rise and fall of complex societies the main purpose is to verify whether after the last promethean revolution a great wave emerged or not the second part of the paper presents an initial investigation into this hypothesis using total factor productivity growth as an indicator of marginal returns on innovation 1750 2015 despite the limitations implicit in the use of this indicator data show three cycles of innovation corresponding to the first second and third industrial revolutions but of different magnitude and duration in particular the whole cycle that began with the first industrial revolution in england around 1750 reached a peak in the u s in the nineteen thirties and later declined following a trend that basically confirms the great wave hypothesis even recent innovations resulting from the ict revolution however considerable do not seem capable of counteracting this long term trend data on returns on innovation seem therefore to be coherent with evidence provided by research in other fields energy mineral resources agriculture health education and scientific research showing that advanced capitalist societies have entered a phase of declining marginal returns or involuntary degrowth with possible major effects on the system s capacity to maintain its present institutional framework

demand side secular stagnation abstract the experience of first japan and now europe and the usa suggests that hansen s concept of secular stagnation is highly relevant recovery has been anemic and follows a generation of financially unsustainable and often lackluster growth investment demand has declined while the supply of saving has increased leaving the economy vulnerable to liquidity traps although some us indicators have improved forward real rates have declined sharply european prospects remain muddled and the zero bound will likely constrain again during the next recession infrastructure and private investment are the best ways to both minimize the risk of secular stagnation and raise demand

relative wages efficiency wages and keynesian unemployment while modern economic theorists have produced a variety of explanations for the failure of wages to fall in the face of unemployment keynes emphasis on relative wages has not been reflected in most contemporary discussions this short paper suggests that relative wage theories in which workers productivity depends primarily on their relative wage provide the best available apparatus for understanding actual unemployment and its fluctuations such theories are very closely related to the efficiency wage theories that have received widespread attention in recent years this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

sectoral wage rigidity in the canadian and french economies abstract this paper estimates the degree of wage flexibility in seven french major sectors and 16 canadian manufacturing industries in order to test the predictions of efficiency wage theory and to compare the degree of wage flexibility with the u s we estimate industry wage flexibility with disaggregated phillips curves and find that efficiency wage theory explains the inter industry pattern of wage flexibility in france and canada quite well using previous estimates from the u s we find that wages are usually more flexible in french and canadian industries than in the corresponding u s industry and that the industries with the most flexible wages in france and canada tend to have the most flexible wages in the u s

wage rigidity micro and macro evidence on labor market adjustment in the modern sector aggregate data on wages and employment may provide misleading indicators of labor market conditions they may suggest inappropriate wage policies in the face of rising unemployment experienced in many developing countries during the 1980s such increases in unemployment are often attributed to wage rigidities a cursory review of aggregate data for the modern sector in cote d ivoire would support this view suggesting that employment declined during the 1979 84 recession due to an increase in real wages examination of disaggregated data from two labor force censuses of the modern sector however shows that real wages declined for specified classes of labor the work force was characterized by greater education training and experience workers with a given level of attributes received a lower real wage by the end of the recession than before it despite this drop in real wages employment in the modern sector declined

financialisation and tendencies towards stagnation the role of macroeconomic regime changes in the course of and after the financial and economic crisis 2007 09

voting weights and formateur advantages in the formation of coalition governments over the last two decades a large and important literature has emerged that uses game theoretic models of bargaining to study legislative coalitions to test key predictions of these models we examine the composition of coalition governments from 1946 and 2001 these predictions are almost always expressed in terms of parties minimal integer voting weights we calculate such weights for all parliamentary parties in addition we develop a statistical model that nests the predictions of many of these models of the distribution of posts we find that for parties that join but did not form the government there is a linear relationship between their share of the voting weight in parliament and their share of cabinet posts the party that forms the government the formateur receives a substantial bonus relative to its voting weight the latter finding is more consistent with proposal based bargaining models of coalition formation and suggests that parties gain disproportionate power not because of their size but because of their proposal power

a new normal for interest rates evidence from inflation indexed debt the downtrend in u s interest rates over the past two decades may partly reflect a decline in the longer run equilibrium real rate of interest we examine this issue using dynamic term structure m

efficiency wage models of unemployment keynesian economists hold it to be self evident that business cycles are characterized by involuntary unemployment but construction of a model of the cycle with involuntary unemployment faces the obvious difficulty of explaining why the labor market does not clear involuntarily unemployed people by definition want to work at less than the going wage rate why don t firms cut wages thereby increasing profits

output hysteresis and optimal monetary policy abstract we derive a fully quadratic approximation to welfare under endogenous growth and study optimal monetary policy away from the zlb optimal commitment policy sets interest rates to eliminate output hysteresis a strict inflation targeting rule implements the optimal policy at the zlb strict inflation targeting is sub optimal and admits output hysteresis defined as a permanent loss in potential output a new policy rule that targets output hysteresis returns the output to the pre shock trend and approximates the welfare gains under optimal commitment policy a central bank unable to commit to future policy actions suffers from hysteresis bias it does not offset past losses in potential output

an output gap measure for the euro area exploiting country level and cross sectional data heterogeneity abstract this paper proposes a methodology to estimate the euro area output gap by taking advantage of two types of data heterogeneity on the one hand the method uses information on real gdp inflation and the unemployment rate for each member state on the other hand it jointly considers this information for all the euro area countries to extract an area wide output gap measure the setup is an unobserved components model that theorizes common output trend and cyclical components across euro area economies in addition to country specific counterparts i estimate the model with bayesian methods using data for the 19 countries of the euro area from 2000 q1 through 2018 q3 and perform model comparisons across different specifications of the output trend the estimation of the model preferred by the data indicates that because of negative shocks to trend output during the global financial crisis output was only slightly below potential in that period but an output gap of about negative 3 emerged during the european debt crisis at the end of the sample period output is estimated to be 3 5 above potential output which is growing at an average annual pace of only 0 5 in recent years

a bayesian model comparison for trend cycle decompositions of output we compare a number of widely used trend cycle decompositions of output in a formal bayesian model comparison exercise this is motivated by the often markedly different results from these decompositions different decompositions have broad implications for the relative importance of real versus nominal shocks in explaining variations in output using us quarterly real gdp we find that the overall best model is an unobserved components model with two features 1 a nonzero correlation between trend and cycle innovations 2 a break in output growth in 2007 under this specification annualized trend output growth decreases from about 3 4 to 1 5 after the break the results also indicate that real shocks are more important than nominal shocks

spurred to upgrade a review of triggers and consequences of industrial upgrading in the global value chain literature summary the global value chains gvc literature intervenes in today s challenging development context by focusing on the means by which developing country industries can upgrade their market positions and outcomes for workers yet while this literature has produced hundreds of rich empirical case studies there has to date been no attempt to systematically analyze this case literature for lessons regarding the antecedents and consequences of the key outcome of upgrading this paper undertakes a systematic analysis of a representative sample of 45 case studies of primary product and light manufacturing industries in developing countries these studies were coded for factors involved in initiating and sustaining upgrading processes the results of upgrading and the role of local institutions in these processes we find that contrary to the major assumptions of the literature advanced country buyers are not the main force in the initiation of industrial upgrading rather in most cases developing country firms initiate upgrades when pushed by shocks of market vulnerability usually produced by state policies that force them to seek to change their status quo operations once initiated upgrading processes can produce a wide spectrum of results from little to no advancement in market position treadmilling to vaulting to the forefront of a global industry leaps forward on the basis of the sources of learning present in the local institutional environment such as state agencies and business associations we also identify conditions under which state participation in upgrading processes can lead to increased local institutional capacity together these findings suggest a framework for upgrading that we refer to as an induced search model this model has important implications for future research on the dynamics of industrial upgrading in developing countries techniques of state intervention and processes of mutually supportive learning between actors in the public and private sector

common elements of efficiency wage theories what relevance for developing countries conventional labour economics argues that wages are determined by supply and demand and that the typical firm is a wage taker efficiency wage theories state that wages are endogenous to a firm s own optimising behaviour and that the wage rate determines the labour productivity these theories raise questions regarding the effectiveness of expenditure reducing and expenditure switching adjustment policies this article reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on efficiency wages it examines alternative models highlights the emphasis of empirical research towards industrial countries and points out the need for a test based on the major implications of the theory

a model of the natural rate of unemployment since the publication of edmund phelps volume the new macroeconomics has treated the labor market as a dynamic process of rational search by unemployed workers for available vacancies wages are viewed as at least potentially flexible though free contracting between workers and firms may lead to fixed wages in the short run imperfect information is a crucial element of the theory for it implies both a need for contracting and a need for rational search rather than simple market clearing in each period a positive rate of frictional unemployment may exist in equilibrium denoted as the natural rate this unemployment is due to the frictions in the search process and imperfections in information rather than to any deficiency in aggregate demand milton friedman defined the natural rate as the level that would be ground out by the walrasian system of general equilibrium equations provided there is embedded in them the actual structural characteristics of the labor and commodity markets including market imperfections stochastic variability in demands and supplies the cost of gathering information about job vacancies and labor availabilities the costs of mobility and so on p 8 this paper reexamines the micro foundations of the natural rate in a model of labor market equilibrium in which turnover flows and imperfect information are explicitly considered workers may quit their current jobs to enter the unemployment pool in order to search among available vacancies for a more preferred position firms economize on turnover by an appropriate wage policy

the personal vote and the efficacy of education spending in this article we explore the ways in which incentives to cultivate a personal vote affect the efficiency of education spending in developing democracies we argue that where the electoral system provides incentives for political particularism resources are allocated less efficiently and the effect of increased spending on literacy is diminished we test our hypotheses using data on education spending and performance in over 40 developing democracies since 1980 we find that though personal vote systems spend just as much on education as party vote systems particularism in personal vote systems dampens the marginal effect of increased education spending on illiteracy and at its highest levels incentives to cultivate a personal vote completely undermine the positive effects of increased education spending on literacy

is increased price flexibility stabilizing this paper uses john taylor s model of overlapping contracts to show that increased wage and price flexibility can easily be destabilizing because of the mundell effect while lower prices increase output the expectation of falling prices decreases output simulations based on realistic parameter values suggest that increases in price flexibility might well increase the cyclical variability of output in the united states copyright 1986 by american economic association

the financial system and the natural real interest rate towards a new benchmark theory model the 2008 financial crisis revealed serious flaws in the models that macroeconomists use to research inform policy and teach graduate students in this paper we seek to find simple additions to the existing benchmark model that might let us answer three questions what caused the boom and crisis why has the recovery been slow and how should policy respond to that slow recovery we argue that it is necessary to add financial frictions to the benchmark model this allows us to study the effects of leveraged financial institutions and of a yield curve based on preferred habitats such features will cause endogenous changes in the natural real interest rate and the spread between that interest rate and the rate which influences expenditure decisions they are likely to radically change the way in which the model responds to shocks we point to some promising models that incorporate these features

efficiency wages wage indexation and macroeconomic stabilization abstract this paper examines the effects of nominal wage indexation on output variability when effort affects the productivity of labor inputs given this specification it is shown that contrary to gray s 1976 result full wage indexation is not destabilizing in the presence of supply shocks

demographic diversity and district level party systems scholars of electoral politics have long argued that the size of a party system is jointly determined by social diversity and district magnitude however no clear consensus exists regarding the best operationalization of the diversity of a society furthermore the relationship between diversity and electoral rules on one hand and the effective number of parties on the other hand has never been tested at the level of the electoral district in a cross national comparative context this article aims to fill both holes and introduces the concept of cross district diversity i argue that the extent of cross district diversity in a country exerts a substantial qualifying impact on the relationship between district level diversity and the effective number of parties support for this finding emerges from a multilevel regression analysis that includes thousands of electoral districts in a diverse set of 29 democracies