high public debt the italian experience introduction is there a public debt problem in italy luigi spaventa the end of large public debts alberto alesina monetary and fiscal policy coordination with a high public debt guido tabellini the management of public debt and financial markets marco pagano capital controls and public finance the experience in italy alberto giovannini public debt and households demand for monetary assets in italy andrea bollino and nicola rossi

quality quantity and spatial variation of price this paper develops and implements a method for estimating price elasticities of demand using cross sectional household survey data geographically clustered households report unit values which when corrected for quality effects and for measurement error indicate the underlying spatial variation in prices and can be matched to variation in demand patterns a simple model of quality choice is proposed while the correction for measurement error exploits the clustered design of such surveys data from a 1979 household survey from the ivory coast are used to estimate price elasticities for beef meat fish cereals and starches copyright 1988 by american economic association

are workers paid their marginal products status is like coase s social costs a reciprocal phenomenon given that one person s gain in status can occur only at the expense of a loss in status for others and that workers are free to choose their coworkers it follows that the competitive wage structure within a firm must be one in which individual wage differences understate individual differences in marginal products the purpose of this paper is to examine a variety of empirical evidence that relates to this proposition about the firm s internal wage structure the paper is organized as follows section i briefly summarizes the theoretical considerations that govern competitive wage determination when status matters to people and firms are viewed as voluntary associations of workers section ii then confronts the predictions of section i by examining pay and productivity schedules for a group of sales occupations for which these schedules are relatively easily observed section ii also examines the relationship between wages and productivity for a sample of university professors an occupation in which individual productivity differences are for a variety of obvious reasons relatively more difficult to measure all of the evidence examined is consistent with the hypothesis that within firms wage rates vary substantially less than do individual productivity values section iii discusses additional observations and evidence that bear on this same hypothesis it suggests that the implicit market for status may strongly influence the ways in which firms are organized to carry out the tasks they perform section iv concludes by considering the claim that egalitarian internal wage structures arise because of equity considerations it argues that the concept of equity appears very closely linked to the concept of status and suggests a strategy for assigning monetaty value to the equity considerations that so often dominate public policy decisions

fiscal deficits exchange rate crises and inflation this paper extends earlier work on unsustainable monetary policies by endogenizing the regime switch that ultimately restores sustainability within this framework we analyse exchange rate based stabilization programmes and show how constraints on central bank borrowing during an exchange crisis influence timing and nature of the post collapse equilibrium such constraints introduce non neutralities more restrictive pre collapse credit policies increase the post collapse inflation rate external shocks can destroy consistency between fiscal programmes and inflation targets causing reserve losses exchange rate changes and higher inflation balance of payments crises are the mechanism through which fiscal imbalances translate into higher inflation rather than an alternative explanation of it this paper deals with inflation fiscal deficits and exchange rate policy in high inflation countries the experience of the past decade has presented a series of puzzles for example countries attempting to stabilize inflation through an exchange rate freeze often saw inflation accelerate after the collapse of the experiment to levels well above those observed before the programme was implemented another puzzle concerns the relation between inflation and balance of payments crises in many countries a bop crisis forcing a change in exchange rate policy often led to a persistent increase in inflation liviatan and piterman 1984 this has led to doubts about the relevance of fiscal deficits in explaining inflationary episodes leading many to see bop crises as an independent explanation of inflation but this apparent relation is a puzzle a bop crisis cum devaluation can at most explain a jump in the price level but not a sustained increase in inflation in this paper we demonstrate that these puzzles can be explained fully by drawing on the public finance approach to inflation initiated by phelps 1973 thus the fiscal versus bop controversy is not a real one our analysis shows that bop crises and exchange rate shifts are part of the mechanisms through which fiscal imbalances translate into higher inflation rather than alternative explanations to make these points we present a simple open economy model to analyse the transition to a fixed exchange rate regime discuss sustainability and demonstrate what happens when policy measures are inconsistent and the fixed regime unsustainable we also demonstrate how the constraints under which the central bank has to operate the exchange rate regime influence the timing of the attack the post collapse inflation rate and the effects of pre collapse fiscal policy on the post collapse equilibrium the analysis builds on the work of sargent and wallace 1982 and liviatan 1984 on unsustainable monetary policies cf buiter 1988 1989 and drazen and helpman 1987 for open economy variants contrary to this literature we link the timing of the regime switch towards sustainable policies to rational speculative behaviour rather than assuming it to be exogenous the introduction of rational speculators forcing a regime switch draws on the literature on speculative attacks on central bank reserves initiated by 8i

an econometric analysis of charitable giving with interdependent preferences in practice we are in a situation where one s own contribution is expected to influence the contributions of others a will expect that b and c may also be induced by his gifts to the same or similar objectives vickrey 1962 p 40 the estimates provide no support for the view that the total amount that an individual contributes is a function of the amount that is given by others although these results are clearly not definitive evidence against the notion of such interdependence among individuals we believe that the burden of proof now rests with those who support a theory of interdependent giving feldstein and clotfelter 1976 p 19 i introduction it is widely believed that one person s charitable contributions can be significantly influenced by the contributions of others the national survey of philanthropy for instance indicates that a sizable fraction of the population believes that people pay attention to what others give when determining their own contribution 1 fundraisers also feel that large leadership contributions by wealthy individuals can be influential in encouraging more and larger contributions by others bakal 1979 moreover interdependence among givers is central to social scientists outside of economics who study altruistic or charitable behavior psychologists for instance have learned that those who have recently witnessed an altruistic act are more likely to be altruistic and that people will be more altruistic the more others contribute 2 sociologists studying reference groups have shown that choices individuals make often depend on the choices of others who are similar in age education social status and other characteristics and that such reference groups appear to be important in determining altruistic and charitable activity 3 economic theorists have also made interdependent preferences the focus of their theoretical models of giving in some of the earliest writing on philanthropy vickrey 1962 gives an extensive discussion of the role of neighborhood effects on contributions formal models of altruism beginning with becker 1974 also assume any one contributor s choice depends on the contributions of all others largely because of the public goods aspect of charity 4 other models have generalized becker s approach to include impurely altruistic motives for giving such as a desire for acclaim status or simply a warm glow from giving where the impure altruism also depends on the contributions of others andreoni 1989 1990 outside of the literature on charity there is a long history beginning with duesenberry 1949 of economic models that assume the consumption choices of one agent are directly affected by the choices and characteristics of other agents 5 yitzhaki 1982 stark 1990 and stark and yitzhaki 1988 have shown the importance of relative deprivation in understanding economic phenomena and in related reasoning frank 1984 1985a b has shown that there is a theoretical and empirical basis for assuming that individuals care about how their consumption ranks relative to some group of peers in addition manski 1993a has shown the importance of role models and reference groups in the study of dynamic choice despite this emphasis on interdependent preferences elsewhere the empirical literature on charitable giving has been unsuccessful at finding any empirical relevance of interdependence feldstein and clotfelter 1976 are the only economists who have attempted to include variables to capture the interdependence of preferences their effort was unsuccessful as a result a large literature has developed in which equations for charitable contributions have been estimated without accounting for interdependence this method has led to a consensus that the tax price of charitable contributions and donor s income are both important in determining gifts

time consistent fiscal policy and government cash flow abstract this short paper provides an interpretation and some extensions of lucas and stokey s results on optimal fiscal policy the discussion relies heavily on the concept of government cash flow which is related but not equal to the budget surplus time consistency of the optimal policy requires that a positive cash flow is used to buy up some debt of each maturity and contingency

assessing target zone credibility mean reversion and devaluation expectations in the erm 1979 1992 abstract the paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six erm currencies relative to the deutsche mark for the period march 1979 april 1992 both the simplest test and the drift adjustment method are used the simplest test adjusts interest rate differentials for the maximum and minimum expected rate of depreciation within the exchange rate band the drift adjustment method adjusts interest rate differentials by the estimated expected rate of depreciation within the band the latter method gives more precise estimates especially for short horizons and allows statistical inference and hypothesis testing expected rates of devaluation have generally fallen during the period still some devaluation expectations relative to the deutsche mark remain in 1992 except for the belgian luxembourg franc and the netherlands guilder expected rates of devaluation have fluctuated more than interest rate differentials

tithing and religious charitable giving in america the concept of religious tithing giving 10 or more of one s income to religious organizations permeates ancient and contemporary religious literature yet the degree to which households apply this construct in their charitable giving practices remains unclear this study examines the practice of tithing using data from a national expenditures survey including 56 663 households despite the pervasiveness of the tithing concept religious donors did not appear to be targeting a specific 10 giving level this may have resulted from varied definitions of income for tithing purposes or the presence of small charitable gifts made without reference to income while the likelihood of religious giving increased with income the likelihood of tithing fell dramatically as a group tithers had less income but were wealthier more educated older and gave more to nonreligious charity than did other households religious tithers who also gave to nonreligious charities were wealthier older and more highly educ

consumers willingness to pay for green electricity a meta analysis of the literature at present electricity generated from power plants using renewable sources costs more than electricity generated from power plants using conventional fuels consumers bear these expenses directly or indirectly through higher prices for renewable energy or taxes the number of studies published over the last few years focusing on people s preferences for renewables has increased steadily making it more and more difficult to identify key explanatory factors that determine people s willingness to pay wtp for renewables we present results of a meta regression on valuation of consumer preferences for a larger share of renewable energy in their electricity mix our meta regression results reveal a number of important factors that explain the differences in wtp values for renewable energy different valuation methods show widely different values with choice experiments producing the highest estimates our results further indicate that consumers wtp for green electricity differs by source with hydropower being the least valued variables that are often omitted from primary valuation studies are important in explaining differences in values these variables describe individual and household characteristics as well as information on the type of power plant that will be replaced by renewables further the marginal effect of a survey conducted in the us is pronounced we also assess the potential for using the results for out of sample value transfer and find a median error of 21 c 2015 elsevier b v all rights reserved

a markov switching analysis of contagion in the ems abstract this paper applies the multivariate version of the forbes and rigobon 2002 contagion test as proposed by dungey et al 2005a to detect contagion effects in the exchange rate mechanism erm of the european monetary system ems crisis and non crisis observations are determined endogenously via a markov switching vector autoregression msvar we show that the msvar is suitable for this purpose as it does particularly well in identifying the 11 realignments of the erm we examine whether denmark s rejection of the maastricht treaty and italy s competitiveness problems affected other ems participants and find evidence for contagion

some indirect evidence on effective capital gains tax rates this paper presents estimates of effective marginal tax rates on capital gains excluding housing between 1960 and 1978 in the united states concern that the inflation of the 1970s may have worked through the tax system to reduce incentives to produce and save has focused attention on the effective marginal tax rates that apply to various sources of income joines 1981 sheds light on this issue by calculating the historical effective marginal tax rates on factor incomes for the united states part of the recent debate however has focused specifically on capital gains taxes and the desirability of reducing them to enhance incentives for saving and investment the effective marginal tax rate on capital gains henceforth emtg may be the most difficult rate to measure in addition to the usual problems of how to attribute deductions exclusions and tax credits further adjustment must be made because investors pay taxes only when they realize their capital gains 1 the expected emtg this paper reports estimates of effective marginal tax rates on capital gains by comparing reported capital gains with total capital gains on an annual basis the estimates show that the effective marginal tax rates on capital gains fluctuated between 3 4 and 6 6 between 1960 and 1978 and that capital gains are held on average between 24 and 31 years before they are reported

budget spillovers and fiscal policy interdependence evidence from the states abstract this paper formalizes and tests the notion that states expenditures depend on the spending of similarly situated states we find that even after allowing for fixed state effects year effects and common random shocks among neighbors a state government s level of per capita expenditure is positively and significantly affected by the expenditure levels of its neighbors ceteris paribus a one dollar increase in a state s neighbors expenditures increases its own expenditure by over 70 cents

regime switching analysis for the impacts of exchange rate volatility on corporate values a taiwanese case a second moment regime switching model with not only a switching intercept and a switching slope but also a switching error variance is applied to examine the impacts of exchange rate volatility erv on corporate values cv for the 10 industries investigated in taiwan two different regimes categorized as strong impact and weak impact are identified the dominant power varies from one industry to another the wald statistics for the null of equality are ambiguous which show that if the markov switching ms model is plausible then the erv might not be one major factor but another factor that could switch the cv of taiwan s industries for the model s volatility influence the data of 8 out of 10 industries are shown to fit a two state model when the volatility is stimulated a two state first order ms model is appropriate for the goodness of fit analysis at the 10 significant level

brother can you spare a dime peer pressure in charitable solicitation abstract while the effects of peer pressure in charitable giving have been of considerable interest to social scientists there is little empirical evidence on the magnitude of these effects a correlation between giving or volunteering by one s peers and one s own giving can be driven by self selection into groups common shocks that inspire both the solicitor to ask and the individual to give or social influence using data from a university this paper analyzes whether alumni are more likely to give and give larger amounts when they are solicited by someone with whom they have social ties freshman year roommate assignments and the structure of the university s giving campaigns are used to overcome problems of selection and common shocks social ties play a strong causal role in the decision to donate and the average gift size additionally a solicitor s request is much more effective if he or she shares characteristics such as race with the alumnus being solicited

fiscal policy debt management and exchange rate credibility lessons from the recent italian experience abstract this paper explores some potential determinants of exchange rate credibility with reference to the italian experience of the 1990s the analysis relies on a nonlinear framework emphasizing shifts between credible and non credible states and assuming a significant degree of persistence in the above regimes almost all fiscal and debt management indicators display significant effects on devaluation expectations the main policy implications of the paper are that a restrictive fiscal stance a lengthening of average debt maturity and an increase in the share of foreign denominated debt are crucial to stabilize the lira exchange rate and to qualify italy in the former group of countries which will join emu

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

an accurate measurement of the crowd out effect income effect and price effect for charitable contributions in the past empirical research on charitable contributions has focused on two issues estimating the income and price elasticities of contributions and estimating the extent to which government funding crowded out private contributions the two fundamental problems in all these studies are the differences in the underlying conceptual models and the use of imperfect data for empirical analysis this paper addresses both of these problems

consistent estimation of the impact of tax deductibility on the level of charitable contributions when charitable contributions are tax deductible the marginal price of charitable giving in other consumption foregone per dollar of contributions is generally less than unity further if the income tax schedule is a progressive step function the marginal price of contributions is generally a rising step function of the level of contributions the problem of estimating a contributions demand function for individuals is therefore complicated by the spurious correlation between the level of contributions and the observed marginal price we take this econometric problem into account in estimating a contributions demand function using data from the 1972 73 consumer expenditure survey after comparing our results with those of estimation techniques used by other authors we provide evidence on the impacts of alternative tax policies on charitable giving using our estimates of the model parameters

dynamic income progressive taxes and the timing of charitable contributions using an econometric model of charitable giving and a 10 year panel of tax return data i find that previous studies have underestimated the effects of permanent income and overestimated the effects of permanent changes in tax prices the significant statutory tax changes that occurred during the 1980s especially in 1986 serve to identify the key model parameters my results imply that people smooth their giving when transitory income changes but also time their giving to exploit transitory changes in tax prices the results also raise questions about how effectively the tax incentives permanently influence the level rather than just the timing of charitable giving by individuals

rational expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime an investigation of the term structure of interest rates abstract this paper is of interest both for its methodological contribution of new tools for analyzing rational expectations models and for its substantive conclusions concerning the term structure of interest rates during the monetary experiment of october 1979 the paper studies systems subject to changes in regime interpreted here as occasional discrete shifts in the parameters governing the time series behavior of exogenous economic variables the specification is shown to be quite tractable both theoretically and empirically the technique is used to analyze yields on three month treasury bills and ten year treasury bonds during 1962 to 1987 a constant parameter linear model for short term rates is shown to be inconsistent both with the univariate time series properties of short rates and with the observed bivariate relation between long and short rates under the expectations hypothesis of the term structure an alternative nonlinear model that admits the possibility of changes in regime affords a much better description of the univariate process for short rates moreover the cross equation restrictions implied by the expectations hypothesis of the term structure are consistent with the nonlinear specification indeed the residuals of the restricted relation have a standard error of only 0 8 basis points this is a third less than that of a completely unrestricted linear regression of long rates on short rates and compares with an unconditional standard deviation of long rates of 142 basis points i conclude that once the recognition by bond traders of changes in regime is taken into account the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates holds up fairly well for these data

germany and the world economy a german view germany and the world economy a round table discussion led by gerhard fels and hans peter froehlich many countries most notably the us have called for a german expansion to date germany has not acceded to these requests and fels and froehlich set out the german position they argue that large budget deficits in 1980 82 and the consequent increase in the debt burden left little alternative to a strategy of fiscal consolidation any contractionary effect on demand may have been more than offset by the favourable effect on private sector expectations the result of this fiscal austerity coupled with a tight monetary policy has been a moderation of inflation and after an initial recession a period of sustained growth any german fiscal expansion would push world real interest rates even higher but would do little to improve the us current account further germany s strongly counterinflationary policies have been an important factor in the success of the ems some easing of the fiscal stance might occur were the us to come to grips with its own deficit problems a reduction of the tax burden and a removal of trade barriers remain the best policies to sustain medium term growth germany s critics remained unconvinced olivier blanchard argued that the german recovery falls well short of that required to restore full employment and that the fiscal contraction of 1982 85 was unwarranted by the existing levels of deficits and debt there was little evidence that the laws of economics had been repealed and that fiscal austerity had actually fostered expansion in germany from a european perspective marcus miller noted that german austerity had helped underpin the anti inflation policy of ems countries however the twin pressures of a tightening us fiscal policy and a falling and more competitive dollar would require a deliberate and concerted european policy expansion if yet higher unemployment was to be avoided in europe a german u turn was especially desirable at this particular juncture

relative deprivation and economic welfare abstract it is shown that the theory of relative deprivation can be decomposed into two concepts deprivation and its relativity deprivation is interpreted as forgone utility due to lack of commodities thus minimizing deprivation and maximizing utility come to much the same thing the relativity of the concept stems from the existence of reference groups in the society the core of the paper deals with the effect of reference groups on the deprivation felt in the society

identifying interdependent behaviour in an empirical model of labour supply in this paper we test a particular form of interdependent behavior namely the hypothesis that individuals choices of hours of work are influenced by the average hours of work in a social reference group there are problems to empirically disentangle the effects of interdependent behavior and preference variation across groups we show that panel data or data from several points in time are needed in the empirical analysis we combine cross section data from 1973 1980 and 1990 our results support the hypothesis of interdependent behavior the implication is that conventional tax policy predictions in which preference interdependencies are neglected will tend to underestimate the effect of a tax reform on hours of work our point estimates suggest that conventional calculations would capture only about a third of the actual change in hours of work

testing a spatial interacting markets hypothesis two models for competitive spatial pricing between retail outlets in a single urban area are presented the models are distinguished in terms of first their relationships to underlying supply and demand conditions in the market and second the spatial forms of inter site competition described properties of the models are identified the statistical theory appropriate to these models is reviewed and the models then fitted to data for retail gasoline prices during periods of falling and then rising average price levels

financing public goods public goods can be financed by direct taxation or a subsidy to private spending this paper examines the relative efficiency and distributional consequences of the two methods efficiency is shown to depend on the price elasticity of private spending and the trade off between public and private spending when this trade off is dollar for dollar however a subsidy is always more efficient than direct taxation the gains from a subsidy are larger for a mixed good than for a pure public good looking a t distributional effects the author shows when richer taxpayers may prefer a tax credit to deductibility even though they face lower prices with deductibility and also shows when richer taxpayers prefer direct taxation to either type of subsidy copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

renewable electricity as a differentiated good the case of the republic of korea this paper examines the willingness for korean consumers to pay a premium for renewable electricity under a differentiated good framework by applying the contingent valuation method korean consumers have been required to pay for their use of renewable electricity as of 2012 first we find that korean consumers recognise renewable electricity as a differentiated good from traditional electricity generated from fossil fuels or nuclear energy the mean willingness to pay to use renewable electricity is usd 1 26 per month second we confirm the existence of perfect substitution relationships among variant renewable technologies which suggests that korean consumers do not perceive them as differentiated goods one reason for this perception is that korean consumers are more inclined to favour economic feasibility over sustainability or the availability of the resource stock when choosing between renewable technology types in sum we can say that korean consumers recognise renewable electricity as a differentiated good but that they do not differentiate between variant renewable technologies thus the imposition of the cost of renewable electricity on consumers in the form of increased electricity charges would be acceptable to consumers as long as any price rise properly reflects their preferences

still different after all these years solidarity behavior in east and west germany abstract using data from laboratory experiments we find that east germans show consistently less solidarity than west germans there has been no convergence in the 20 years after the reunification while it has recently been estimated that political values converge 20 to 40 years after the reunification alesina and fuchs schundeln 2007 we conclude from our findings that social behavior changes more slowly than political values we hypothesize that this is due to complementarities involved in individual social behavior and the necessity to coordinate on social norms on the society level

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

disparate information and the probability of currency crises empirical evidence abstract this paper tests the impact of the distribution of information on the probability of currency crises within a markov switching framework less disparate information among domestic and foreign investors proxied by premia on country funds lowers the probability of a crisis