the energy ladder theoretical myth or empirical truth results from a meta analysis abstract modern fuels are an important enabler of social and economic development still over 2 billion people rely on traditional biomass for their daily energy needs to overcome the negative effects of traditional energy on human health and the environment and to enhance the livelihood conditions of the poor a transition towards cleaner and more efficient forms of energy is needed understanding household fuel choice and fuel switching behaviour is of vital importance in search for policies to support such a transition process this paper adds to the existing energy transition literature in two ways first we provide a novel conceptual framework to analyze the decision environment underlying energy and fuel choices second we apply this framework in a meta analysis of existing choice models investigating energy switching and stacking behaviour in urban and rural areas in developing countries the meta analysis shows that socio economic household characteristics appear to receive most attention so far in identifying groups of fuel users while relatively little information is available on the impact of the external decision context on household energy choices

the microstructure of the canada u s dollar exchange rate a robustness test abstract the recent international economics literature suggests that market microstructure effects matter for exchange rate determination and forecasting this paper investigates performance robustness of the pure microstructure canada u s dollar exchange rate model it is found that when used for forecasting this microstructure model is very sensitive to the choice of time period and forecasting horizon

the most popular tax in europe lessons from the irish plastic bags levy there have been occasional ad hoc efforts to influence consumer behaviour by the imposition of product taxes that reflect external costs imposed by such products that are not initially included in their price in the spirit of this idea in 2002 ireland introduced a 15 euro cent tax on plastic shopping bags previously provided free of charge to customers at points of sale the effect of the tax on the use of plastic bags in retail outlets has been dramatic a reduction in use in the order of 90 and an associated gain in the form of reduced littering and negative landscape effects costs of administration have been very low amounting to about 3 of revenues because it was possible to integrate reporting and collection into existing value added tax reporting systems response from the main stakeholders the public and the retail industry has been overwhelmingly positive central to this acceptance has been a policy of extensive consultation with these stakeholders the fact that a product tax can influence consumer behaviour significantly will be of interest to many policymakers in this area this paper analyses the plastic bag levy success story and provides insights and general guidelines for other jurisdictions planning similar proposals

technology adoption under uncertainty take up and subsequent investment in zambia technology adoption often requires multiple stages of investment as new information emerges agents may abandon a technology that was profitable in expectation we use a field experiment to vary t

frequency domain analysis of foreign exchange order flows abstract using a unique data set from the bank of canada this paper presents the frequency domain analysis of a causal relationship between the canada us dollar exchange rate movements and currency order flows the evidence shows that the existence as well as the direction of causality depends on the customer type frequency and time period

why don t the poor save more evidence from health savings experiments using data from a field experiment in kenya we document that providing individuals with simple informal savings technologies can substantially increase investment in preventative health and reduce vulnerability to health shocks simply providing a safe place to keep money was sufficient to increase health savings by 66 percent adding an earmarking feature was only helpful when funds were put toward emergencies or for individuals that are frequently taxed by friends and relatives group based savings and credit schemes had very large effects

measuring subjective expectations in developing countries a critical review and new evidence the majority of economic decisions taken by individuals are forward looking and thus involve their expectations of future outcomes understanding the expectations that individuals have is thus of crucial importance to designing and evaluating policies in health education finance migration social protection and many other areas however the majority of developing country surveys are static in nature and do not contain information on the subjective expectations of individuals possible reasons given for not collecting this information include fears that poor illiterate individuals do not understand probability concepts that it takes far too much time to ask such questions or that the answers add little value this paper provides a critical review and new analysis of subjective expectations data from developing countries and refutes each of these concerns the authors find that people in developing countries can generally understand and answer probabilistic questions such questions are not prohibitive in time to ask and the expectations are useful predictors of future behavior and economic decisions the paper discusses the different methods being tried for eliciting such information the key methodological issues involved and the open research questions the available evidence suggests that collecting expectations data is both feasible and valuable suggesting that it should be incorporated into more developing country surveys

intrahousehold allocation of free and purchased mosquito nets for some health goods intrahousehold allocation may be more important in determining outcomes than household level consumption an example is the use of mosquito nets to prevent malaria malaria kills over one million people annually 90 percent of them children under the age of five the use of insecticide treated mosquito nets itns is considered the most costeffective available strategy for control of the disease in 2000 44 of the 50 malaria affected countries in africa committed themselves to increasing the use of itns by vulnerable populations in particular children under five years of age and pregnant women adults in malarious regions have typically acquired some immunity to the disease through repeated exposure over the course of their lives the risk of severe malaria resulting in lifelong disability or death is highest for young children and pregnant women across transmission environments robert w snow et al 2003 on the other hand lost labor time often accounts for the largest portion of the private cost of the disease this implies a trade off between minimizing the income lost to malaria and minimizing the risk that a household member dies or is permanently disabled despite public health messages emphasizing the importance of using mosquito nets to protect young children from malaria nets are often used by adults when a household does not have enough nets to cover all members eline l korenromp et al 2003 frederick mugisha and jacqueline arinaitwe 2003 determining the welfare maximizing allocation of nets is intrahousehold allocation of free and purchased mosquito nets

health and agricultural productivity evidence from zambia we evaluate the productivity effects of investment in preventive health technology through a randomized controlled trial in rural zambia in the experiment access to subsidized bed nets was randomly assigned at the community level 516 farmers were followed over a one year farming period we find large positive effects of preventative health investment on productivity among farmers provided with access to free nets harvest value increased by us 76 corresponding to about 14 7 of the average output value while only limited information was collected on farming inputs shifts in the extensive and the intensive margins of labor supply appear to be the most likely mechanism underlying the productivity improvements observed

evaluating the relative strength of product specific factors in fuel switching and stove choice decisions in ethiopia a discrete choice model of household preferences for clean cooking alternatives switching from conventional stoves to modern clean safe and efficient stoves will improve health and social welfare for the 2 7 billion people worldwide that lack reliable access to modern energy services in this paper we critically review some key theoretical dimensions of household consumer behaviour in switching from traditional biomass cooking stoves to modern efficient stoves and fuels we then describe the results of empirical research investigating the determinants of stove choice focusing on the relative strength of product specific factors across three wealth groups a stated preference survey and discrete choice model were developed to understand household decision making associated with cooking stove choice in addis ababa ethiopia the study found that with the exception of price and usage cost factors for the high wealth group the product specific factors that were investigated significantly affect stove and fuel choices the relative strength of factors was assessed in terms of marginal willingness to pay and provides some evidence that consumer preference for higher quality fuels and stoves tends to increase with increasing wealth

decision costs and price sensitivity field experimental evidence from india abstract poor people often exhibit puzzlingly high sensitivity to low prices of important consumer health goods this paper proposes decision costs as one explanation whether a person buys at a price depends on whether she carefully considers the offer which itself depends on price a simple model predicts that deliberation costs 1 increase sensitivity to low prices 2 can prevent cost sharing from targeting products to buyers with high value and 3 can have larger effects on poorer people the principal contribution of this paper is a field experiment that sold hand washing soap in rural india participants were randomly assigned to be offered soap for either a low or very low price which was experimentally crossed with assignment to a control group or to a treatment that required deliberation results matched predictions of the model the treatment decreased price sensitivity relative to the control group and increased targeting of product take up by need

independent private value auctions bidder behaviour in first second and third price auctions with varying numbers of bidders the symmetric equilibrium of third price auctions is characterized it makes a number of contrasting predictions relative to firms and second price auctions bids exceed private values the marginal effects on bids of an increase in private values is greater than one increasing numbers of bidders reduces bids and risk aversion requires bidding below the risk neutral nash equilibrium in the experiment bidders do not always satisfy the point predictions of the theory however the game theoretic models correctly anticipate at least directionally the important effects of the price rule changes copyright 1993 by royal economic society

from linear fuel switching to multiple cooking strategies a critique and alternative to the energy ladder model abstract promoting sustainable development requires evaluating the technical and policy options that will facilitate the adoption and use of energy efficient and less polluting cooking stoves and practices the transition from traditional to modern fuels and devices has been explained by the energy ladder model that suggests that with increasing affluence a progression is expected from traditional biomass fuels to more advanced and less polluting fuels in this paper we evaluate the energy ladder model utilizing data from a four year 1992 96 case study of a village in mexico and from a large scale survey from four states of mexico we show that an alternate multiple fuel model of stove and fuel management based on the observed pattern of household accumulation of energy options rather than the simple progression depicted in the traditional energy ladder scenario more accurately depicts cooking fuel use patterns in rural households the multiple fuel model integrates four factors demonstrated to be essential in household decision making under conditions of resource scarcity or uncertainty a economics of fuel and stove type and access conditions to fuels b technical characteristics of cookstoves and cooking practices c cultural preferences and d health impacts this model also allows better estimates of the expected fuelwood demand and indoor air pollution in rural households

the short run and long run effects of behavioral interventions experimental evidence from energy conservation we document three remarkable features of the opower program in which social comparison based home energy reports are repeatedly mailed to more than six million households nationwide first initial reports cause high frequency action and backsliding but these cycles attenuate over time second if reports are discontinued after two years effects are relatively persistent decaying at 10 20 percent per year third consumers are slow to habituate they continue to respond to repeated treatment even after two years we show that the previous conservative assumptions about post intervention persistence had dramatically understated cost effectiveness and illustrate how empirical estimates can optimize program design jel d12 d83 l94 q41

preferences for domestic fuel analysis with socio economic factors and rankings in kolkata india abstract the choice of domestic fuel is a matter of great concern for households and policy makers in india this paper investigates the demand for domestic fuels when households face four choices fuelwood coal kerosene and lpg the study is based on a survey of 500 households in kolkata india the demand estimates are conducted using a two stage process where the first stage investigates choice and the second the quantity used determinants of fuel demand are identified and their relative importance shown extending the study the paper also analyses the choice of the main cooking fuel in terms of the households stated rankings of six fuels for five attributes the policy discussion indicates that subsidies have less potential to reduce polluting fuels such as coal and fuelwood due to weak cross price elasticities while increased availability of lpg and potentially also increased awareness of indoor air pollution have greater prospect

commitment mechanisms and compliance with health protecting behavior preliminary evidence from orissa india this paper presents results that are part of a larger study carried out in five districts of the eastern indian state of orissa where endemic malaria represents one of the most serious public health concerns one of the study s objectives designed in collaboration with the micro lender bharat integrated social welfare agency was to evaluate the possibility of using specifically designed consumer loan contracts to increase ownership and retreatment rates for insecticide treated bednets

what impedes efficient adoption of products evidence from randomized sales offers for fuel efficient cookstoves in uganda consumers failure to adopt products with health and wellbeing benefits apparently far greater than their costs has consistentlychallenged the widespread use of health improving technologies a sales offer combining free trial time payments and the option of returning the product can overcome barriers such as liquidityconstraints and poor information about benefits and usability we tested this sales offer and alternatives in an experiment with a fuel efficient charcoal stove in urban uganda and a fuel efficient wood stove in rural uganda this offer dramatically increased uptake in urban kampala from 4 to 46 and in rural mbarara from 5 to 57

keeping the doctor away experimental evidence on investment in preventative health products household investment in preventative health products in developing countries is typically low even though the returns to such products are high in this paper we experimentally estimate demand curves for health products and test whether 1 information about health risk 2 cash liquidity 3 peer effects and 4 intra household differences in preferences affect demand in our main experiment in kenya involving children s shoes critical for preventing hookworm infection price is by far the most important predictor of purchase providing liquidity and targeting women also increased demand information had no effect even though we find that genuine learning occurred we find no peer effects even though people discussed the product purchase decision extensively we find similar results for price and information in three smaller studies in guatemala india and uganda in experiments involving soap and multivitamins

the marginal cost of raising tax revenue and redistributing income we present analytic formulas for calculating marginal welfare costs when taxes are levied against the wages of a heterogeneous population of households and marginal tax revenue finances either the supply of a public good or lump sum transfers the formulas are applied to explain the wide discrepancy between estimates of marginal welfare costs for redistribution previously obtained through computer simulation procedures our calculations reveal that these procedures introduced lump sum transfers that were not specified as part of the reforms to be simulated but explain most of the differences between their estimates we also show that welfare cost estimates are quite sensitive to the elasticity of labor supply with respect to exhaustive public spending

can higher prices stimulate product use evidence from a field experiment in zambia the controversy over how much to charge for health products in the developing world rests in part on whether higher prices can increase use either by targeting distribution to high use households a screening effect or by stimulating use psychologically through a sunk cost effect we develop a methodology for separating these two effects we implement the methodology in a field experiment in zambia using door to door marketing of a home water purification solution we find evidence of economically important screening effects by contrast we find no consistent evidence of sunk cost effects jel c93 d12 i11 m31 o12

patterns of rainfall insurance participation in rural india take up of an innovative rainfall insurance policy offered to smallholder farmers in rural india decreases with basis risk between insurance payouts and income fluctuations increases with household wealth and decreases with binding credit constraints these results are consistent with the predictions of a simple neoclassical model with borrowing constraints other patterns are less consistent with the benchmark model for example participation in village networks and measures of familiarity with the insurance vendor are strongly correlated with insurance take up decisions and risk averse households are less not more likely to purchase insurance these results may reflect household uncertainty about the product given their limited experience with it

efficiency of nonpoint source pollution instruments an experimental study in nonpoint source pollution problems the regulator does not observe each polluter s individual emission which prevents him from using the conventional policy instruments therefore new instruments have been designed to regulate this type of pollution in an experiment we compare the efficiency of some of these instruments an input based tax an ambient tax subsidy an ambient tax and a group fine we assume that polluters themselves are affected by environmental damages a control session without any regulation is also carried out in order to study the status quo situation our experimental data show that the input tax and the ambient tax are very efficient and reliable and the group fine is fairly efficient and reliable these instruments improve social welfare with respect to the status quo on the contrary the ambient tax subsidy decreases social welfare with respect to the status quo and its effect is very unreliable

reassessing the energy ladder household energy use in maun botswana abstract in the context of sub saharan africa s rapid urbanization improved insight into urban energy use is increasingly important based on the predictions of energy transition theory a regional shift from biomass to modern fuels has long been expected to occur in tandem with urban growth however trends observed in the region s towns and cities have often not followed such patterns and fuelwood continues to be important in most areas this paper examines the practical relevance of transition theory using a recent case study conducted by the authors in maun botswana and results previously reported in the literature it finds that despite the long term link between socio economic development and increased modern fuel consumption at the national scale the notion of transition does not accurately reflect ongoing energy use patterns at lower levels of aggregation this is chiefly because its model of household fuel switching largely dismisses the importance of active and strategic decision making by urban consumers and their responsiveness to structural factors such as relative fuel prices as the botswana case illustrates this weakness can significantly distort expectations and policies around urban fuelwood use

do non monetary prices target the poor evidence from a field experiment in india monetary price subsidies are often used to increase take up of health products but monetary prices may screen out those with the highest returns the poor using willingness to pay wtp data from a field experiment in india this paper determines whether nonmonetary prices better target health products to the poor than monetary prices it is found that monetary wtp is increasing in income and nonmonetary wtp is weakly decreasing in income comparing across price types nonmonetary wtp falls relative to monetary wtp as income rises nonmonetary prices better target the poor than monetary prices a larger fraction of total demand is poor

eliciting and utilizing willingness to pay evidence from field trials in northern ghana we utilize the becker degroot marschak 1964 mechanism to estimate the willingness to pay for clean drinking water technology in northern ghana the bdm mechanism has attractive properties for empirical research allowing us to directly estimate demand compute heterogeneous treatment effects and study the screening and causal effects of prices with minor modifications to a standard field experiment setting we demonstrate the implementation of bdm along these three dimensions compare it to the standard take it or leave it method for eliciting willingness to pay and discuss practical issues for implementing the mechanism in true field settings jel classifications c93 d12 d82 l11 l31

the demand for a malaria vaccine evidence from ethiopia this study measures the monetary value households place on preventing malaria in tigray ethiopia we estimate a household demand function for a hypothetical malaria vaccine and compute the value of preventing malaria as the household s maximum willingness to pay to provide vaccines for all family members this is contrasted with the traditional costs of illness medical costs and lost productivity our results indicate that the value of preventing malaria with vaccines is about us 36 per household per year or about 15 of imputed annual household income this is on average about twice the expected household cost of illness

the illusion of sustainability this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled the illusion of sustainability conducted during the time period 1998 to 2001 in kenya the study observed that deworming is a public good since much of its social benefit comes through reduced disease transmission people were less likely to take deworming if their direct first order or indirect second order social contacts were exposed to deworming the introduction of a small fee for deworming drugs led to an 80 percent reduction in treatment rates take up was not sensitive to the exact price level suggesting that it is particularly counter productive to charge small positive prices for the treatment of infectious diseases an intensive school health education had no impact on worm prevention funding for the study derived from world bank nih fogarty international center berkeley center for health research

do customer information programs reduce household electricity demand the irish program abstract we study empirically the effectiveness of a customer information program to decrease energy demand by increasing efficient electricity use this demand side management dsm program aims at reducing the lack of information on the customers side that is documented in related literature we study the irish dsm program which is particularly well suited to investigate this issue as strategic behavior is ruled out in this setting for both customers and suppliers on the customers side because information programs allow only for a limited substitution of own effort on the producers side because the specificity of the irish case left no room for strategic behavior we find that providing customers with information reduced overall electricity demand by roughly 7 as well as reducing demand fluctuations over the year further we find that the dsm program had a larger impact upon long run demand with consumers short run demand behavior not being changed significantly

insurance credit and technology adoption field experimental evidence from malawi this brief summarizes the insurance credit and technology adoption field experimental evidence from malawi the farmers were offered loans for the november 2006 planting season does production risk suppress the demand for credit the author implemented a randomized field experiment to ask whether provision of insurance against a major source of production risk induces farmers to take out loans to adopt a new crop technology the study sample was composed of roughly 800 maize and groundnut farmers in malawi where by far the dominant source of production risk is the level of rainfall the author randomly selected half of the farmers to be offered credit to purchase high yielding hybrid maize and groundnut seeds for planting in the november 2006 crop season the other half of farmers were offered a similar credit package but were also required to purchase at actuarially fair rates a weather insurance policy that partially or fully forgave the loan in the event of poor rainfall surprisingly take up was lower by 13 percentage points among farmers offered insurance with the loan take up was 33 0 percent for farmers who were offered the uninsured loan there is suggestive evidence that reduced take up of the insured loan was due to farmers already having implicit insurance from the limited liability clause in the loan contract insured loan take up was positively correlated with farmer education income and wealth which may proxy for the individual s default costs by contrast take up of the uninsured loan was uncorrelated with these farmer characteristics

locus of control and technology adoption in developing country agriculture evidence from ethiopia abstract we investigate the implication of farmers locus of control on their technology adoption decisions our empirical analysis is based on two longitudinal surveys and hypothetical choice exercises conducted on ethiopian farmers we find that locus of control significantly predicts farmers technology adoption decisions including use of chemical fertilizers improved seeds and irrigation we show that individuals with an internal locus of control have higher propensity of adopting agricultural technologies we observe these empirical regularities in both datasets and for both revealed measures of farmers technology adoption decisions as well as farmers hypothetical demand for agricultural technology the results hold even in a more conservative fixed effects estimation approach assuming locus of control as time variant and dynamic behavioral trait these findings provide behavioral and psychological explanations for the low rates of adoption of profitable agricultural technologies in sub saharan africa our results highlight that improving farmers non cognitive skills locus of control may facilitate technology adoption and agricultural transformation more generally the results suggest that anti poverty policies that only focus on relaxing short term external constraints including physical access to markets and technologies may not sufficiently alleviate agricultural underinvestment

tax subsidy policies toward vector borne infectious diseases abstract vector borne diseases especially rife in poor countries pose sectoral tax subsidy issues preventions and therapies mitigate these diseases in a numerical optimization model combining dynamic epidemiology and economics the medical distinction between prevention and therapy does not distinguish economic properties of preventions and therapies some interventions increase and others decrease moving to the steady state depending on the utility function the targeting of interventions and the disease process interventions display negative own price but indeterminate cross price effects juxtaposing the social planner s with decentralized choices quantifies externalities and shows how subsidies implement the first best one prevention and the therapy are equally subsidized

the energy transition in action urban domestic fuel choices in a changing zimbabwe two questionnaire surveys of fuel use by low income households in zimbabwe were conducted in four small towns in 1994 and in these towns plus four larger towns in 1999 an energy transition from wood through kerosene to electricity occurred a with rising household income b with increasing electrification status among towns and c over time in the smaller towns in spite of falling household incomes in two of the towns increasing discrepancy in the incomes of higher and lower income groups over time was not associated with greater divergence in their fuel choices by 1999 electricity was used by almost all households in towns with good electricity supplies while use of firewood in these towns was infrequent however even the wealthiest households continued to combine electricity with other fuels usually kerosene electricity use by less affluent households is apparently limited by lack of connections in the home and by access to appliances while fuel prices which are subject to government subsidies and fell in real terms over 5 years have been less important zimbabwe s urban domestic energy policy has had considerable success in terms of equity but this is increasingly difficult to maintain given present economic and political uncertainty

choice modelling approaches a superior alternative for environmental valuation in this paper we examine some popular choice modelling approaches to environmental valuation which can be considered as alternatives to more familiar valuation techniques based on stated preferences such as the contingent valuation method a number of choice modelling methods are consistent with consumer theory and its focus on an attribute based theory of value permits a superior representation of many environmental management contexts however choice modelling surveys can place a severe cognitive burden upon respondents and induce satisficing rather than maximising behavioural patterns in this framework we seek to identify the best available choice modelling alternative and investigate its potential to solve some of the major biases associated with standard contingent valuation we then discuss its use in the light of policy appraisal needs within the eu an application to the demand for rock climbing in scotland is provided as an illustration

micro loans insecticide treated bednets and malaria evidence from a randomized controlled trial in orissa india we describe findings from the first large scale cluster randomized controlled trial in a developing country that evaluates the uptake of a health protecting technology insecticide treated bednets itns through micro consumer loans as compared to free distribution and control conditions despite a relatively high price 52 percent of sample households purchased itns highlighting the role of liquidity constraints in explaining earlier low adoption rates we find mixed evidence of improvements in malaria indices we interpret the results and their implications within the debate about cost sharing sustainability and liquidity constraints in public health initiatives in developing countries

rural household energy consumption the effects of access to electricity evidence from south africa this paper examines household energy consumption patterns in rural areas in the light of energy transition theories in particular the study aims to identify the effects of access to electricity on fuel choice the analysis uses data from an extensive household survey conducted in south africa and examines the prevalence of different fuels energy expenditure the end uses of fuels and multiple fuel use patterns it is concluded that evidence exists for the presence of an energy transition in rural households largely driven by income access to electricity affects the nature of this transition and there is weak evidence to suggest that it accelerates the process

payments or persuasion common pool resource management with price and non price measures we use lab experiments to study policies that address common pool resource overuse we look at a price mechanism specifically a pigouvian subsidy and four non price interventions the non price policies are information alone information with a normative message communication alone and normative messages with communication allowed in all experiment sessions no intervention occurs in the first seven and last seven rounds allowing us to examine the effects of introducing and taking away a policy the subsidy leads to near efficient extraction but surprisingly leads groups that were not over extracting to also reduce extraction this over compliance decreases efficiency although on net the subsidy is the most efficiency enhancing intervention information provision communication normative appeals and normative appeals combined with communication all reduce over extraction though by less than the subsidy without exacerbating over compliance however the effects of information alone and communication alone are small and not robust the non price policies cause a decline in over extraction of from 0 549 information to 11 441 normative appeals with communication these effects are of the same order of magnitude as the effects seen in major field studies of conservation messaging the subsidy has the worst persistence properties after the intervention ceases while normative messages with communication have the best

does price affect the demand for information about new health technologies evidence from a field experiment in nigeria we study how prices influence the demand for information about a new preventative health technology we conducted a field experiment in nigeria where women were offered the opportunity to get screened for cervical cancer at baseline 2 3 of women had no knowledge of cervical cancer screening field staff made house calls to give women information about the test and also distributed vouchers that randomly varied the price of screening at the point of service we find an inverse u shaped relationship between prices and the demand for information going from zero to a small positive price increased the demand for information about the test but increasing the price further by 100 resulted in a net decrease in the demand for information we argue that these results have interesting implications for the debate about the pricing of new health technologies in developing countries

spousal control and intra household decision making an experimental study in the philippines i elicit causal effects of spousal observability and communication on financial choices of married individuals in the philippines when choices are private men put money into their personal accounts when choices are observable men commit money to consumption for their own benefit when required to communicate men put money into their wives account these strong treatment effects on men but not women appear related more to control than to gender men whose wives control household savings respond more strongly to the treat ment and women whose husbands control savings exhibit the same response changes in information and communication interact with underlying control to produce mutable gender specific outcomes

health nutrition and economic development the relationship between health and economic development is explored focusing on nutrition based health indicators the spotlight is placed on the inter related feedbacks between the influence of health on productivity on one hand and the influence of income on health status on the other disentangling causality in these relationships has preoccupied much of the literature we evaluate different empirical strategies that have been adopted and assess the results there is now a body of evidence based on careful empirical studies that demonstrates a causal relationship between health and labor productivity there is also evidence that at least among the very poor additional income is spent on improved nutrition there are two issues that have received little attention although we argue they are likely to be very important first measurement of health is discussed in detail evidence is presented on how taking into account differences in the extent of measurement error is critical for interpreting the impact of health on wages the same theme emerges in studies of the effect of income on health specifically calorie intake the key role of non linearities in these relationships is highlighted and we demonstrate that a good deal of the variation in estimates of income elasticities of demand for calories can be ascribed to the role of measurement and functional form authors

microcredit and willingness to pay for environmental quality evidence from a randomized controlled trial of finance for sanitation in rural cambodia low willingness to pay wtp for environmental quality in developing countries is a key research question in environmental economics one explanation is that missing credit markets may suppress wtp for environmental improvements that require large up front investments we test the impact of microloans on wtp for hygienic latrines via a randomized controlled trial in 30 villages in rural cambodia we find that microcredit dramatically raises wtp for improved latrines with 60 of households in the financing arm willing to purchase at an unsubsidized price relative to 25 in the non financing arm effects on latrine installation are positive but muted by several factors including a negative peer effect randomly induced purchases by neighbors reduce a household s probability of installing its own latrine on methodological grounds this paper shows that a decision focused evaluation can be integrated into academic analysis to provide insight into questions of general interest

price subsidies diagnostic tests and targeting of malaria treatment evidence from a randomized controlled trial author s dupas pascaline cohen jessica schaner simone abstract both under and over treatment of communicable diseases are public bads but efforts to decrease one run the risk of increasing the other using rich experimental data on household treatment seeking behavior in kenya we study the implications of this tradeoff for subsidizing life saving antimalarials sold over the counter at retail drug outlets we show that a very high subsidy such as the one under consideration by the international community dramatically increases access but nearly half of subsidized pills go to patients without malaria we study two ways to better target subsidized drugs reducing the subsidy level and introducing rapid malaria tests over the counter

household energy preferences for cooking in urban ouagadougou burkina faso abstract an extensive survey on household expenditures in ouagadougou the capital of burkina faso was used to analyze the factors determining urban household energy choices using a multinomial logit model wood energy remains the preferred fuel of most urban households in the country though rational the choice is not sustainable as it portends a threat to the savanna woodlands and the economy many important policies have been adopted by public authorities to minimize household wood energy consumption and to substitute it by alternative fuel despite the magnitude of all these policies the depletion rate of the forest resource is increasing a kind of inertia is thus observed for household preferences for cooking fuel this model analyzes the sociological and economic variables of household energy preferences for cooking in ouagadougou the analyses show that the inertia of household cooking energy preferences are due to poverty factors such as low income poor household access to electricity for primary and secondary energy low house standard household size high frequency of cooking certain meals using woodfuel as cooking energy the descriptive analyses show that the domestic demand for wood energy is strongly related to household income the firewood utilization rate decreases with increasing household income in other words this fuel appears as a transition good for these households which aim for other sources of energy for cooking that are more adapted for urban consumption this implies that a price subsidy policy for liquid petroleum gas lpg and its cook stoves could significantly decrease the utilization rate of wood energy

the persistence of treatment effects with norm based policy instruments evidence from a randomized environmental policy experiment during a 1977 fireside chat president jimmy carter famously appealed to american hom eowners to set their thermostats at 65 degrees to help conserve supplies of natural gas and fuel oil norm based strategies are commonly used to influence a range of private behaviors with public consequences including alcohol and drug use gambling and resource consump tion in the last decade these strategies increas ingly emphasize the use of social comparisons to motivate behavioral changes efforts to use such comparisons build upon leon festinger s 1954 social comparison theory which posits that individuals validate the appropriateness of an action or thought through comparison to others a subsequent literature in social psychol ogy argues that strategies based on this theory provide an effective means to promote environ mental conservation see e g tim kurz ngaire donaghue and ian walker 2005 p wesley schultz et al 2007 noah j goldstein robert b cialdini and vladas griskevicius 2008 jessica m nolan et al 2008 in this literature the work by schultz et al 2007 has proven most influential and forms the basis of opower s well cited social comparison approach for

preferences for improved cook stoves evidence from rural villages in north india abstract because emissions from solid fuel burning in traditional stoves impact global climate change the regional environment and household health there is today real interest in improved cook stoves ics nonetheless surprisingly little is known about what households like about these energy products we report on preferences for biomass burning ics attributes in a large sample of 2120 rural households in north india a global hotspot for biomass fuel use and the damages that such use entails households have a strong baseline reliance and preference for traditional stoves a preference that outweighs the 10 and 5 willingness to pay wtp for realistic 33 reductions in smoke emissions and fuel needs on average respectively preferences for stove attributes are also highly varied and correlated with a number of household characteristics e g expenditures gender of household head patience and risk preferences these results suggest that households exhibit cautious interest in some aspects of ics but that widespread adoption is unlikely because many households appear to prefer traditional stoves over ics with similar characteristics the policy community must therefore support a reinvigorated supply chain with complementary infrastructure investments foster experimentation with products encourage continued applied research and knowledge generation and provide appropriate incentives to consumers if ics distribution is to be scaled up

free distribution or cost sharing evidence from a randomized malaria prevention experiment author s cohen jessica dupas pascaline abstract it is often argued that cost sharing charging a subsidized positive price for a health product is necessary to avoid wasting resources on those who will not use or do not need the product we explore this argument through a field experiment in kenya in which we randomized the price at which prenatal clinics could sell long lasting anti malarial insecticide treated nets itns to pregnant women we find no evidence that costsharing reduces wastage on those that will not use the product women who received free itns are not less likely to use them than those who paid subsidized positive prices we also find no evidence that costsharing induces selection of women who need the net more those who pay higher prices appear no sicker than the average prenatal client in the area in terms of measured anemia an important indicator of malaria cost sharing does however considerably dampen demand we find that uptake drops by 75 percent when the price of itns increases from zero to 0 75 i e from 100 to 87 5 percent subsidy the price at which itns are currently sold to pregnant women in kenya we combine our estimates in a cost effectiveness analysis of itn prices on child mortality that incorporates both private and social returns to itn usage overall our results suggest that free distribution of itns could save many more lives than cost sharing programs have achieved so far and given the large positive externality associated with widespread usage of itns it would likely do so at a lesser cost per life saved

short run subsidies and long run adoption of new health products evidence from a field experiment short run subsidies for health products are common in poor countries how do they affect long run adoption a common fear among development practitioners is that one off subsidies may negatively affect long run adoption through reference dependence people might anchor around the subsidized price and be unwilling to pay more for the product later but for experience goods one off subsidies could also boost long run adoption through learning this paper uses data from a two stage randomized pricing experiment in kenya to estimate the relative importance of these effects for a new improved antimalarial bed net reduced form estimates show that a one time subsidy has a positive impact on willingness to pay a year later inherit to separately identify the learning and anchoring effects we estimate a parsimonious experience good model estimation results show a large positive learning effect but no anchoring we black then discuss the types of products and the contexts inherit for which these results may apply

fixed versus flexible lessons from ems order flow abstract we extend the literature on regime dependent volatility in two ways first our microstructural model provides a qualitatively new explanation second we test implications of our model using europe s recent shift to rigidly fixed rates ems to emu in the model shocks to order flow induce more volatility under flexible rates because the elasticity of speculative demand is endogenously low leading to pronounced portfolio balance effects new data on ff dm transactions show that order flow had persistent effects on the exchange rate before emu parities were announced after announcement the ff dm rate was decoupled from order flow as the model predicts

decentralized management of common property resources experiments with a centuries old institution for centuries villages in the alps employed a special system for managing their common properties individual users could inspect other users at their own cost and impose a predetermined sanction a fine when a free rider was discovered the fine was paid to the user who found a violator experiments with the institutions demonstrate that this mechanism considerably improves efficiency of resource use the classical model of identical selfish agents does not capture the data as well as a model with heterogeneous and linear other regarding preferences altruism and especially potentially dysfunctional behavior such as spite and mistake play important positive roles

woodfuels livelihoods and policy interventions changing perspectives in the 1970s it appeared that fuelwood use was growing rapidly and this could have major adverse impacts on the resource and poor users by the mid 1980s revised assessments indicated that there was less of a problem than had been foreseen and much less of a need for forestry interventions to maintain supplies as a result many of the latter were sharply scaled back additional information and analysis that has become available since the 1980s support the view that there is no need for large scale interventions devoted just to provision of fuelwood however declining access to supplies or markets can raise significant problems in some areas and for particular categories of user growing urban demand for charcoal can also cause local problems in particular in africa the potentials for appropriate forms of intervention are discussed

using laboratory experimental auctions in marketing research a case study of new packaging for fresh beef this paper illustrates the use of laboratory experimental auctions in a pretest market research program for new products we review the experimental auctions literature discuss the range of auction mechanisms available and present the advantages and disadvantages of using a particular mechanism for a laboratory pretest market we then present a step by step example of how a theoretically incentive compatible auction mechanism fifth price sealed bid was used in a laboratory pretest market for vacuum packaged beef based on the illustration we discuss the potential for using laboratory experimental auctions in pretest market research we present the limitations that may be encountered in such applications and outline research aimed at improving the behavioral properties of the technique

learning misallocation and technology adoption evidence from new malaria therapy in tanzania i study how the misallocation of new technology to individuals who have low ex post returns to its use affects learning and adoption behavior i focus on antimalarial treatment which is frequently over prescribed in many low income country contexts where diagnostic tests are inaccessible i show that misdiagnosis reduces average therapeutic effectiveness because only a fraction of adopters actually have malaria and slows the rate of social learning due to increased noise i use data on adoption choices the timing and duration of fever episodes and individual blood slide confirmations of malarial status from a pilot study for a new malaria therapy in tanzania to show that individuals whose reference groups experienced fewer misdiagnoses exhibited stronger learning effects and were more likely to adopt

the impact of the household decision environment on fuel choice behavior abstract consumer preferences for fuels and alternative cookstove technologies in kenya are examined focusing on household internal and external determinants driving choice behavior in a choice experiment the potential for a transition towards cleaner and more efficient fuels and technologies is assessed by zooming in on three fuel stove combinations we find substantial demand and positive willingness to pay for the fuel stove combinations in three locations representing different decision environments demand is significantly higher in the peri urban and the resource abundant rural location than in the resource scarce rural location the presence of better developed consumer markets for fuels in these locations functions as an important driver for cookstove adoption although charcoal and ethanol stoves are preferred over improved firewood stoves continued firewood usage is expected energy switching behavior cannot be substantiated instead energy stacking is more likely where charcoal and ethanol add to and extend a household s energy portfolio

do you not like pigou or do you not understand him tax aversion and revenue recycling in the lab tax aversion reduces the likelihood that price rationing can be a politically viable tool for environmental protection we examine the case of the classic pigouvian tax to control a negative externality and consider how recycling the revenues labeling of the tax and information about its purpose affects the support for taxation we test the support for taxation within a single price market experiment in which purchases by some buyers impose external costs on others observing behavior consistent with tax aversion we also find that recycling the revenues to more narrowly targeted groups seems to increase support for taxation in the absence of narrow revenue recycling labeling a pigouvian instrument as a tax may significantly lower the likelihood of voter support

one off subsidies and long run adoption experimental evidence on improved cooking stoves in senegal free technology distribution can be an effective development policy instrument if market driven adoption is socially inefficient and hampered by affordability constraints yet policy makers often oppose free distribution arguing that reference dependence lowers the willingness to pay wtp and thus market potentials in the long run for improved cookstoves this paper studies the wtp six years after a randomized one time free distribution in 2009 we demonstrate that the cookstoves were intensely used by the treatment group households in the years after randomization until they reached their designated lifetime using a real purchase offer we find that both treatment and control households reveal a remarkably high wtp in 2015 the estimated confidence interval suggests that we can exclude a substantial negative effect on the treatment group the policy implication is that one time free distribution does not necessarily undermine future market establishment and thus can be an effective policy instrument if rapid dissemination is the objective

do residential water demand side management policies measure up an analysis of eight california water agencies abstract to assess the potential of price and alternative demand side management dsm policies as an urban water resource management tool an econometric model of residential demand is formulated and estimated this econometric model incorporates alternative dsm policy instruments such as water allocations use restrictions public education and increasing block pricing schedules the analysis relies on cross sectional monthly time series data for eight water agencies in california representing 24 of the state s population 7 1 million people results suggest that both price and alternative dsm policies were effective in reducing demand however the magnitude of the reduction in demand varied among policy instruments

does purchase price matter for the waiting time to start using energy efficient technologies experimental evidence from rural ethiopia abstract in this study we conducted a randomized experiment in rural ethiopia to test on how quickly energy efficient technology an improved stove is put in use after the technologies is disseminated we evaluate two concepts that may affect usage of a product screening related to valuation of a product and sunk cost effects based on the price the potential user paid for the product a standard tobit and iv tobit methods of estimations are used for testing sunk cost and screening effects respectively results based on the baseline survey and follow up data shows that there is no difference in the length of waiting time to start using the energy efficient technology between those who got the stove for free and those that paid money for it in other words the sunk cost effect is absent however we find a difference in the waiting time between those with high valuation for the stove and those with lower valuation for it in other words we find an evidence of the screening effect the result has pricing policy implications for government and non government organizations involved in dissemination of such technologies that have both public environmental and private benefits

what motivates common pool resource users experimental evidence from the field this paper develops and tests several models of pure nash strategies of individuals who extract from a common pool resource when they are motivated by a combination of self interest and other motivations such as altruism reciprocity inequity aversion and conformism we test whether an econometric summary of subjects strategies is consistent with one of these motivations using data from a series of common pool resource experiments conducted in three regions of colombia as expected average extraction levels are less than that predicted by a model of pure self interest but are nevertheless sub optimal moreover we find that a model of conformism with monotonically increasing best response functions best describes average strategies our empirical results are inconsistent with models of altruism reciprocity and inequity aversion

the effect of marketing messages and payment over time on willingness to pay for fuel efficient cookstoves abstract smoke from inefficient biomass cookstoves contributes to global climate change and kills approximately four million people per year cooking technologies such as manufactured fuel efficient cookstoves that mitigate the negative effects of traditional cookstoves exist but adoption rates are low the international development community debates whether this low adoption of fuel efficient cookstoves is due to a lack of adequate product information or due to household financial constraints we ran vickery second price auctions in rural uganda to elicit willingness to pay for fuel efficient cookstoves comparing the effect of informational marketing messages and time payments on willingness to pay a randomized trial tested the following marketing messages this stove can improve health this stove can save time and money and both messages combined none of the messages consistently increased willingness to pay in a second experiment we compared willingness to pay for two different contracts one with payment due within a week and one with equal installment payments over 4 weeks consistent with household financial constraints time payments raised willingness to pay by 40

tying odysseus to the mast evidence from a commitment savings product in the philippines we designed a commitment savings product for a philippine bank and implemented it using a randomized control methodology the savings product was intended for individuals who want to commit now to restrict access to their savings and who were sophisticated enough to engage in such a mechanism we conducted a baseline survey on 1777 existing or former clients of a bank one month later we offered the commitment product to a randomly chosen subset of 710 clients 202 28 4 percent accepted the offer and opened the account in the baseline survey we asked hypothetical time discounting questions women who exhibited a lower discount rate for future relative to current trade offs and hence potentially have a preference for commitment were indeed significantly more likely to open the commitment savings account after twelve months average savings balances increased by 81 percentage points for those clients assigned to the treatment group relative to those assigned to the control group we conclude that the savings response represents a lasting change in savings and not merely a short term response to a new product

using an economic experiment to estimate willingness to pay for a new maternal nutrient supplement in ghana scaling up access to supplements designed to prevent undernutrition such as new small quantity lipid based nutrient supplements sq lns may require distribution via both public channels and retail markets the viability of sq lns retail markets will hinge on household level demand we use an economic experiment to characterize initial willingness to pay wtp for a maternal sq lns product in ghana wtp is positive for most participants though below the estimated cost of production for many wtp varies depending on income assets and parity status these findings have implications for the design of public health policy and hybrid public private delivery mechanisms

meese rogoff redux micro based exchange rate forecasting meese rogoff redux micro based exchange rate forecasting by martin d d evans and richard k lyons this paper compares the true ex ante fore casting performance of a micro based model against both a standard macro model and a random walk in contrast to existing literature which is focused on longer horizon forecasting we examine forecasting over horizons from one day to one month the one month horizon being where micro and macro analysis begin to over lap over our three year forecasting sample we find that the micro based model consistently outperforms both the random walk and the macro model micro based forecasts account for almost 16 percent of the sample variance in monthly spot rate changes these results pro vide a level of empirical validation as yet unat tained by other models the forecasting experiment proposed by richard meese and kenneth rogoff 1983 re mains a benchmark against which exchange rate models are judged their result that structural macro models cannot outperform a naive random walk has proved robust over the decades yet the meese rogoff paper was never about forecasting in the true sense i e using tirrie f information to forecast exchange rates at t 1 b y using concurrent realized values of the forcing variables their regressions were more about concurrent explanation than about ex ante forecasting their only forecast ing element is in their reliance on ex ante data to estimate equation parameters which appro priately penalized models whose estimated pa rameters were unstable tion for the random walk nature of exchange rates is that there exists some unobserved fun damental that itself follows a random walk un observed being important because fundamentals proposed in most macro models do not follow random walks they offer a different explana tion one rooted in the asset approach to ex change rates and the present value relation that follows from it specifically they show that i f fundamentals are 1 1 but not necessarily ran dom walks then as the discount factor in the present value relation approaches 1 the ex change rate will follow a process arbitrarily close to a random walk intuitively given that an 1 1 process can be split into random walk and stationary components a discount factor near 1 means that most all of the weight is placed on fundamentals far into the future ex pectations of which are dominated by the random walk component charles engel and kenneth west 2004 2005 provide a valuable perspective on the forecastability of exchange rates one explana this paper takes the analysis of engel and west as an important reorientation of thinking and brings it to the natural next step specifi cally if there is little room for forecasting based on stationary components of fundamentals then one needs to focus on where all the action is namely exchange rate dynamics that come from expectational surprises though the sur prise part is by definition orthogonal to public information our micro based model shows that there should exist types of nonpublic infor mation that are useful for forecasting this part and where to look for these types of informa tion we then locate data on these types of nonpublic information and test whether they have true ex ante forecasting power we should evans department of economics georgetown uni versity washington dc 20057 and nber lyons haas school of business university of california berkeley c a 94720 1900 and nber we are grateful to ken west for his comments and to the national science foundation for financial support we refrain from using the word news because it has too strong an association with macro information that is public which even in the most careful of event studies explains less than 5 percent of exchange rate variation in total see torben andersen et al 2003

bid sensitivity and the structure of the vickrey auction a research study explored a version of economist w vickrey s second price sealed bid auction used for the valuation of nonmarket goods the sensitivity of revealed values generated by this variation were examined a standard second price auction with repeated market trials was compared to a random nth price auction and a combinatorial private collection auction with sequentially revealed values results showed the consistency of revealed values in a low probability risk scenario

externalities and corrective policies in experimental markets this paper reports on the behaviour of simple laboratory markets which have an externality experiences with these markets provide some help in answering two broad questions 1 do markets with externalities behave in accordance with the law of supply and demand 2 how do the pollution tax pollution standard and pollution licenses compare as methods for correcting the externality