an empirical growth model for major oil exporters this paper develops a long run output relation for a major oil exporting economy where the oil income to output ratio remains su ciently high over a prolonged period it extends the stochastic growth model developed in binder and pesaran 1999 by including oil exports as an additional factor in the capital accumulation process the paper distinguishes between the two cases where the growth of oil income g 0 is less than the natural growth rate the sum of the population growth n and the growth of

the american business cycle continuity and change in recent decades the american economy has experienced the worst peace time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the great depression these circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles which joseph schumpeter suggested are like the beat of the heart of the essence of the organism that displays them in the american business cycle some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the united states focuses on the questions to what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks how have post 1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles and what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles they extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity consumption investment inventory change fiscal policy monetary behavior open economy and the labor market five papers focus on aggregate economic activity in a number of cases the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions in addition to its substantive findings the american business cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the nber business cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series

reevaluation of the employment impact of the 1996 summer olympic games using empirical methods published more recently than our earlier analysis found in this journal we continue to find a statistically significant and substantial employment impact of the 1996 summer olympic games in atlanta post olympics versus pre olympics employment gains in counties affected by the olympics exceeded employment gains in the rest of the counties in georgia by 11 by the end of 2000 in addition olympics affected counties in the metro atlanta area experienced employment gains relative to other major southern metropolitan statistical areas of roughly 5 these results stand up to robustness and falsification tests

testing for the long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation using cointegration techniques 1989 testing for the long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation using cointegration techniques applied economics vol 21 no 4 pp 439 447

some empirical evidence on the effects of shocks to monetary policy on exchange rates this paper investigates the effects of shocks to u s monetary policy on exchange rates we consider three measures of these shocks orthogonalized shocks to the federal funds rate orthogonalized shocks to the ratio of nonborrowed to total reserves and changes in the romer and romer index of monetary policy in sharp contrast to the literature we find substantial evidence of a link between monetary policy and exchange rates specifically according to our results a contractionary shock to u s monetary policy leads to i persistent significant appreciations in u s nominal and real exchange rates and ii significant persistent deviations from uncovered interest rate parity in favor of u s interest rates

inflation before and after central bank independence the case of colombia abstract in this paper we model the colombian inflation rate in terms of excess demand effects from asset goods and factor markets in contrast to previous results for a group of industrial economies we find that domestic factors are a far more powerful influence on inflation than are external factors the paper pays particular attention to the potential effects of the constitutional reform of 1991 which created a central bank independent from other parts of government we find that the creation of an independent central bank did change some of the parameters of the model as the disequilibria in goods and monetary markets were found to have a smaller effect on inflation after central bank independence was granted

structural analysis of cointegrating vars this survey uses a number of recent developments in the analysis of cointegrating vector autoregressions vars to examine their links to the older structural modelling traditions using autoregressive distributed lag ardl and simultaneous equations models sems in particular it emphasizes the importance of using judgement and economic theory to supplement the statistical information after a brief historical review it sets out the statistical framework discusses the identification of impulse responses using the generalized impulse response functions reviews the analysis of cointegrating vars and highlights the large number of choices applied workers have to make in determining a specification in particular it considers the problem of specification of intercepts and trends and the size of the var in more detail and examines the advantages of the use of exogenous variables in cointegration analysis the issues are illustrated with a small u s macroeconomic model

homes and castles should we care about idiosyncratic risk we consider a novel set of data comprising every transaction in the netherlands housing market between 1995 and 2011 and take a closer look at the idiosyncratic risk as it played out in those years shiller and weiss 1999 proposed a home equity insurance policy that eliminates systematic risk we use their insurance scheme as an analytical tool to add detail to the comovement of individual transactions and the market we are particularly interested in the policy s loss coverage efficiency and payout probability at best protection against market risk is only around the half way mark to risk elimination

fiscal shocks and real exchange rate dynamics some evidence for latin america this paper analyses the effects of fiscal shocks using a two country macroeconomic model for output labour input government spending and relative prices which provides the orthogonality restrictions for obtaining the structural shocks dynamic simulation techniques are then applied in particular to shed light on the possible effects of fiscal imbalances on the real exchange rate in the case of six latin american countries using quarterly data over the period 1980 2006 we find that in a majority of cases fiscal shocks are the main driving force of real exchange rate fluctuations

oil prices inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated var model for the g 7 countries sharp increases in the price of oil are generally seen as a major contributor to business cycle asymmetries moreover the very recent highs registered in the world oil market are causing concern about possible slowdowns in the economic performance of the most developed countries in this paper a structural cointegrated var model has been considered for the g 7 countries in order to study the direct effects of oil price shocks on output and prices and the reaction of monetary variables to external shocks our results can be summarized as follows i a stationary money demand as suggested by the classic theory of money can be identified for most countries ii according to the estimated coefficients of the structural part of the model for all countries except japan and u k the null hypothesis of an influence of oil prices on the inflation rate cannot be rejected inflation rate shocks are transmitted to the real economy by increasing interest rates iii impulse response analysis suggests for most countries the existence of an instantaneous temporary effect of oil price innovations on prices iv impulse response functions indicate different monetary policy reactions to inflationary and growth shocks v the simulation exercises directed to estimate the total impact of the 1990 oil price shock indicate that for some countries u s a significant part of the effects of the oil price shock is due to the monetary policy reaction function for other countries canada france and italy however the total impact is offset at least in part by an easing of monetary conditions

a money demand system for euro area m3 in order to assess the importance of monetary and financial developments for key macroeconomic variables in the euro area a money demand system for m3 is estimated adopting a structural cointegrating var approach while maintaining a good statistical representation of the data long run relationships are based on economic theory by using generalized response profiles the dynamics of the money demand system is investigated without any further identifying assumptions error bounds of the profiles are derived using bootstrap simulations

interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts the effects of monetary policy existing theory and evidence on the effects of monetary policy are reviewed substantial room for disagreement among economists remains new evidence based on multivariate time series studies of several countries is presented while certain patterns in the data consistent with effective monetary policy are strikingly similar across countries others particularly the tendency of interest rate increases to predict high inflation are harder to reconcile with effective monetary policy

how does a new sports stadium affect housing values the case of fedex field this study investigates how the construction of a sports stadium affects residential housing values hedonic analyses are conducted to assess the price differentials between housing units in close proximity to fedex field home of the washington redskins and comparable units away from it using a difference in difference approach the study finds that properties near fedex field sold at a discount however this price differential was narrowed after the completion of the stadium contrary to neighborhood activists concern that sports venues adversely affect property values the findings of this study indicate that a new stadium improves housing values in the surrounding area

estimating shocks and impulse response functions this paper examines the issue of how to identify the shocks in a cointegrated var when the following assumptions are made the variables can be classified as endogenous or exogenous there are as many cointegrating relations as endogenous variables the cointegrating vectors are identified and they contain at least one exogenous variable it is shown that with these assumptions it is possible to identify the shocks without the use of further restrictions on the covariance matrix of the disturbances or the short run dynamics if the long run parameters are known the whole model can be estimated by ols the analysis is extended to allow the var to have both stationary and non stationary variables an illustration of the method is provided using the traditional benchmark var model involving us data on output prices interest rates and money a liquidity effect is not found using this var methodology

rough and lonely road to prosperity a reexamination of the sources of growth in africa using bayesian model averaging this paper takes a fresh look at africa s growth experience by using the bayesian model averaging bma methodology bma enables us to consider a large number of potential explanatory variables and sort out which of these variable can effectively explain africa s growth experience posterior coefficient estimates reveal that key engines of growth in africa are substantially different from those in the rest of the world more precisely it is shown that mining primary exports and initial primary education exerted differential effect on african growth these results are examined in relation to the existing literature copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

real and nominal exchange rates in the long run an empirical investigation abstract this paper reports on econometric tests of the hypothesis that purchasing power parity holds as a long run relationship using data on eight industrialized countries during the flexible exchange rate period the empirical work proceeds by i testing whether nominal exchange rates and relative price levels are co integrated and ii conducting impulse response analysis of long run exchange rate and relative price level changes to explain the data keynesian models suggest that shocks during the estimation period were due principally to exogenous shifts in aggregate demand while equilibrium models suggest that monetary factors have been relatively more important

inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule the purpose of the paper is to survey and discuss in ation targeting in the context of monetary policy rules the paper provides a general conceptual discussion of monetary policy rules attempts to clarify the essential characteristics of in ation targeting compares in ation targeting to other monetary policy rules and draws some conclusions for the monetary policy of the european system of central banks jel classi cation e42 e52

modeling the ecu against the u s dollar a structural monetary interpretation the proposal that a reformed international monetary system be designed around currency blocs has gained some popularity of late in europe the formation of the euro formalizes the existence of a dm based currency block little academic research has been conducted however on the properties of composite currencies such as the euro in this article we examine the properties of the precursor to the euro namely the ecu against the u s dollar using a monetary framework the article has several novel features our modeling strategy involves starting with underlying equilibrium conditions rather than a final reduced form uses divisia money rather than the more conventional simple sum money interprets in an economic sense the long run relationships and produces an appealing forecasting performance

trade creation and diversion revisited accounting for model uncertainty and natural trading partner effects summary the effect of preferential trade agreements ptas on trade flows is subject to model uncertainty stemming from the diverse and even contradictory effects suggested by the theoretical pta literature the existing empirical literature has produced remarkably disparate results and the wide variety of empirical approaches reflects the uncertainty about the correct set of explanatory variables that ought to be included in the analysis to account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing pta theories we introduce bayesian model averaging bma to the pta literature statistical theory shows that bma successfully incorporates model uncertainty in linear regression analysis by minimizing the mean squared error and by generating predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy we find strong evidence of trade creation trade diversion and open bloc effects our results are robust to a range of alternative empirical specifications proposed by the recent pta literature copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

using stochastic frontier models to mitigate omitted variable bias in hedonic pricing models a case study for air quality in bogota colombia hedonic pricing models use property value differentials to value changes in environmental quality if unmeasured quality attributes of residential properties are correlated with an environmental quality measure of interest conventional methods for estimating implicit prices will be biased because many unmeasured quality measures tend to be asymmetrically distributed across properties it may be possible to mitigate this bias by estimating a heteroskedastic frontier regression model this approach is demonstrated for a hedonic price function that values air quality in bogota colombia

stochastic trends and economic fluctuations are business cycles mainly the result of permanent shocks to productivity this paper uses a long run restriction implied by a large class of real business cycle models identifying permanent productivity shocks as shocks to the common stochastic trend in output consumption and investment to provide new evidence on this question econometric tests indicate that this common stochastic trend cointegration implication is consistent with postwar u s data however in systems with nominal variables the estimates of this common stochastic trend indicate that permanent productivity shocks typically explain less than half of the business cycle variability in output consumption and investment copyright 1991 by american economic association

permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals any non stationary series can be decomposed into permanent or trend and transitory or cycle components typically some atheoretic pre filtering procedure is applied to extract the permanent component this paper argues that analysis of the fundamental underlying stationary economic processes should instead be central to this process we present a new derivation of multivariate beveridge nelson permanent and transitory components whereby the latter can be derived explicitly as a weighting of observable stationary processes this allows far clearer economic interpretations different assumptions on the fundamental stationary processes result in distinctly different results but this reflects deep economic uncertainty we illustrate with an example using garratt et al s 2003a small vecm model of the uk economy

real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries using annual data spanning two centuries for dollar sterling and franc sterling real exchange rates we find strong evidence of mean reverting real exchange rate behavior using simple stationary autoregressive models estimated on prefloat data we easily outperform nonstationary real exchange rate models in dynamic forecasting exercises over the recent float such stationary univariate equations explain 60 80 percent of the in sample variation in real exchange rates although the degree of short run persistence may be high the econometric estimates imply a half life of shocks to the real exchange rate of about 6 years for dollar sterling and a little under 3 years for franc sterling

revealed p reference theory abstract this paper develops axiomatically a revealed preference theory of reference dependent choice behavior instead of taking the reference for an agent as exogenously given in the description of a choice problem we suitably relax the weak axiom of revealed preference to obtain endogenously the existence of reference alternatives as well as the structure of choice behavior conditional on those alternatives we show how this model captures some well known choice patterns such as the attraction effect jel d11 d81

on stock market illiquidity and real time gdp growth this study examines whether stock market illiquidity forecasts real uk gdp growth using data over the period 1989q1 2012q2 apart from standard linear model specifications we also utilize non linear models which allow for regime switching behavior in terms of a liquid versus an illiquid market regime and over the phases of the business cycle our findings support a statistically significant negative relationship between stock market illiquidity and future uk gdp growth over and above the usual control variables this relationship is found to be stronger during periods of highly illiquid market conditions and weak economic growth our out of sample forecasting analysis indicates that a regime switching model of illiquid versus liquid market conditions predicts uk growth better than any other model actually this model is the only one to significantly outperform the gdp growth forecasts published in the bank of england s inflation report

comparing svars and sems two models of the uk economy the structural vector autoregression svar and simultaneous equation macroeconometric model sem styles of empirical macroeconomic modelling are compared and contrasted with reference to two models of the uk economy namely the long run structural var model of garratt lee pesaran and shin and the compact model various styles of impulse response analysis are also compared and contrasted and used to illustrate model properties a reverse engineering procedure is used to infer long run relations of compact comparable to the glps cointegrating relations copyright c 2005 john wiley t sons ltd

stochastic search variable selection in vector error correction models with an application to a model of the uk macroeconomy this paper develops methods for stochastic search variable selection currently popular with regression and vector autoregressive models for vector error correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space we show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner we apply our methods to a large uk macroeconomic model

sequentially rationalizable choice a sequentially rationalizable choice function is a choice function that can be retrieved by applying sequentially to each choice problem the same xed set of asymmetric binary relations rationales to remove inferior alternatives these con cepts translate into economic language some human choice heuristics studied in psychology and explain cyclical patterns of choice observed in experiments we study some properties of sequential rationalizability and provide a full character ization of choice functions rationalizable by two and three rationales

the role of explanations and need for uniqueness in consumer decision making unconventional choices based on reasons this research investigates the interaction between a very common task explaining decisions and an individual difference need for uniqueness nfu on buyer decision making we propose that explaining or providing reasons for decisions shifts the focus from the choice of options to the choice of reasons furthermore buyers who explain their decisions and have high nfu tend to select unconventional reasons and are consequently more likely to make unconventional choices these predictions were supported in a series of studies involving choices between conventional and less conventional options such as whether to switch to a brand on sale whether to select a compromise option and whether to accept a gamble with a possible loss the findings also indicate that the effects of providing reasons are not due to attempts to act rationally or to concerns about being evaluated three boundary conditions on the generalization that high nfu consumers who provide reasons tend to make unconventional choices we

identifying sources of macroeconomic and exchange rate fluctuations in the uk abstract using quarterly data for the period 1985 1 2011 1 this paper uses a stylised open economy structural var model to identify the types of shocks responsible for macroeconomic fluctuations in the uk economy the stylised model implies a set of short run restrictions that allow for the identification of the shocks the importance of each shock is determined by examining forecast error variance decompositions impulse response functions and implied long run or permanent effects the results presented here imply that two shocks called the technology and is shocks are relatively more important than other shocks monetary shocks do exhibit long run monetary neutrality but clearly monetary policy is not responsible for a meaningful share of output and employment fluctuations during the sample period the estimated var and structural disturbances imply that the model accurately reflects the uk economy there is little evidence of a price puzzle or an exchange rate puzzle evidence against uncovered interest rate parity in response to an unexpected monetary policy tightening

growth empirics a panel data approach a comment this paper comments on recent developments in the literature on the econometric analysis of international growth and convergence it notes that panel estimates of the neoclassical model accommodating level effects for individual countries through heterogeneous intercepts deal with some of the econometric difficulties arising in some of the earlier cross sectional studies but it notes that in dynamic panels heterogeneity in growth effects and in speeds of convergence renders this estimator inconsistent also the pervasiveness of such heterogeneity is demonstrated in three samples of countries and the effects of incorrectly imposing homogeneity on estimated parameters are illustrated and discussed

structural models of the liquidity effect in this paper we examine a number of recent studies that claim to have obtained a well defined liquidity effect using structural var models based on broad measures of money these studies can be distinguished in terms of the identifying restrictions sample periods and frequency of data used we show that estimation of the structural coefficients of all these models can be achieved by instrumental variable methods where the instruments are predetermined variables and the estimated structural errors from other equations in the system overall our judgment is that the evidence for a liquidity effect from these studies is much less certain than suggested in the original papers primarily because of the poor quality of the instruments used in estimation and the sensitivity of the estimates to the sample period used

how well does the is lm model fit postwar u s data postwar u s time series for money interest rates prices and gnp are characterized by a multivariate process driven by four exogenous disturbances those disturbances are identified so that they can be interpreted as the four main sources of fluctuations found in the is lm phillips curve model money supply money demand is and aggregate supply shocks the dynamic properties of the estimated model are analyzed and shown to match most of the stylized predictions of the model the estimated decomposition is also used to measure the relative importance of each shock to interpret some macroeconomic episodes and to study sources of permanent shocks to nominal variables

what fisher knew about his relation we sometimes forget abstract expected consumption growth increases the real interest rate as one tries to smooth consumption over time we demonstrate that placing it in the fisher relation 1 is consistent with the euler equation governing the purchase of nominal bonds 2 explains observed procyclicality of the real interest rate 3 is supported empirically and 4 provides an alternative method for estimating the consumer s degree of relative risk aversion

rational choice with status quo bias abstract motivated by the empirical findings concerning the importance of one s current situation on her choice behavior the main objective of this paper is to propose a rational choice theory that allows for the presence of a status quo bias and that incorporates the standard choice theory as a special case we follow a revealed preference approach and obtain two nested models of rational choice that allow phenomena like the status quo bias and the endowment effect and that are applicable in any choice situation to which the standard static choice model applies

status quo bias multiple priors and uncertainty aversion motivated by the extensive evidence about the relevance of status quo bias both in experiments and in real markets we study this phenomenon from a decision theoretic prospective focusing on the case of preferences under uncertainty we develop an axiomatic framework that takes as a primitive the preferences of an agent for each possible status quo option and provide a characterization according to which the agent considers a full dimensional set of possible priors and abandons her status quo option only if she finds an alternative that returns a higher expected utility for each of these priors we then show that in this framework the very presence of a status quo induces the agent to be more uncertainty averse than she would be without a status quo option

spillover effects of human service facilities in a racially segmented housing market abstract previous studies of human service facility spillovers on residential property values have been inconclusive and have failed to take into account the effects of racial segmentation of housing markets likewise studies of racial discrimination in urban housing markets and price differentials between white and nonwhite areas of the city have failed to consider the impacts of service facilities on prices this study develops an hedonic price model of housing services in a racially segmented housing market which considers a variety of human service facilities and their spillover effects model results for oakland california in 1976 indicate that facilities significantly affect housing prices both positively and negatively and that these effects vary by racial submarket implications of these findings for the interpretation of past discrimination studies facility impact studies and social policy are considered

identification long run relations and fundamental innovations in a simple cointegrated system this paper examines the roles played by innovations identified from a simple four variable var characterized by cointegration using knowledge of cointegration rank and textbook relations that link macroeconomic aggregates we identify distinct real and nominal innovations that dictate the long run behavior of the model we also examine the explanatory power of transitory innovations that are orthogonal to these permanent shocks one of the permanent shocks displays all the characteristics of a technology or supply innovation while one of the transitory innovations identified by imposing short run price rigid ity is interpretable as a demand side impulse the permanent nominal shock bears the imprint of an innovation in aggregate inflation expectations historical decomposition and comparison with variables that are external to the model reveals the relative importance of the shocks at various episodes

what do the vars mean measuring the output effects of monetary policy abstract vars describe the history of output and other variables following monetary shocks to measure the effects of monetary shocks one must add economic identifying assumptions i specify the relative effects of anticipated and unanticipated money and i calculate how var based measures of the effect of money on output change as one varies this assumption the anticipated unanticipated assumption influences measured output effects as much or more than the variable selection and shock orthogonalization assumptions on which the var literature focuses assuming that anticipated monetary policy can have some effect on output results in much shorter smaller and perhaps more believable estimates of the output response to monetary shocks

property tax revaluation and tax levy growth abstract jurisdiction wide property revaluation like many administrative reforms may have unintended consequences this paper examines one such potential consequence by pooling 18 year time series for each of 39 massachusetts cities 17 of which revalued and 270 massachusetts towns 202 of which revalued we examine the hypothesis that politicians take advantage of the confusion generated by revaluation and raise property taxes by more than they otherwise would have we observe such a response in cities but not in towns and attribute this difference to differences in their governmental structures

testing the long run structural validity of the monetary exchange rate model using a recently developed econometric technique we test the validity of the over identifying restrictions of the long run structural relations underlying the flex price monetary model of the exchange rate our main finding is that for the canadian us dollar structural identification is rejected by the data

decoy effects in choice experiments and contingent valuation asymmetric dominance while a dominated choice involves a situation in which one option clearly dominates another on all relevant dimensions an asymmetrically dominated choice typically arises where at least two options do not dominate each other and one but not both of those options does dominate a third option we demonstrate that the introduction of such an asymmetrically dominated option can have a significant impact upon choices between non dominated options within the same choice set for non market goods furthermore we show that this effect can then translate into significant impacts upon subsequent valuations for those non dominated options

nominal exchange rate regimes and the real exchange rate abstract two assumptions about the real exchange rate are common in the literature on international finance 1 the real exchange rate is a random walk 2 the time series properties of the real exchange rate depend on the nominal exchange rate regime this paper presents evidence that indicates that the random walk behavior of the real exchange rate is only a characteristic of the post world war ii period moreover our findings also suggest that what is crucial to the real exchange rate behavior is the particular historical period rather than the nominal exchange rate arrangement

structural var models for malaysian monetary policy analysis during the pre and post 1997 asian crisis periods this article conducts an in depth investigation into building a structural vector autoregression svar model and analysing the malaysian monetary policy considerable attention is paid to i the selection of foreign policy and target variables ii establish identifying restrictions and improve the estimates of impulse response functions iii assess the importance of intermediate channels in transmitting monetary policy mechanism and iv the way in which the 1997 asian financial crisis affected the working of monetary policy malaysia is an interesting small open economy to study because following this crisis the government imposed capital and exchange rate control measures the overall results suggest that the crisis and the subsequent major shift in the exchange rate regime have significantly affected the malaysian black box in the pre crisis period domestic variables appear to be more vulnerable to foreign monetary shocks further the exchange rate played a significant role in transmitt

international evidence on the size of the random walk in output this paper contributes three extensions of cochrane s work on measuring the relative stability of long term growth it estimates variance ratios for nine oecd countries over the period 1871 1985 presents an improved approximation to the distribution of the variance ratio and considers the comovements of long growth cycles across countries the evidence indicates that the relative stability of long term growth found by cochrane is unique to the united states relative to the united states most countries have more variable dynamics at low frequencies and smoother dynamics at frequencies traditionally associated with business cycles

impact of allowing sunday alcohol sales in georgia on employment and hours differential timing across counties of the removal of restrictions on sunday alcohol sales in the state of georgia is used to determine whether the change had an impact on employment and hours in the beer wine and liquor retail sales industry a triple difference ddd analysis finds significant relative increases in average weekly hours in the treated industry but no significant impact on employment we speculate regarding the forces behind the positive ddd result and conclude that the change in regulation likely lowered profits for affected liquor stores this would explain why store owners were vocal opponents to restriction removal

supportive housing and neighborhood property value externalities we analyzed impacts on single fam institutional settings as part of the nationily home prices of eleven small scale supportive wide deinstitutionalization movement housing facilities announced in denver during beginning in the 1970s chronically men 1989 1995 using a difference in differences econo tally ill developmentally and physically dis metric specification we found that these facilities abled non violent produced a positive impact on house prices within offenders recovering 1 001 to 2 000 feet we attributed this effect to coun substance abusers and frail elderly inditervailing externalities building rehabilitation vs viduals have increasingly been domiciled resident behaviors that vary in their spatial extent in small scale facilities located in residen supportive housing facilities were systematically tial neighborhoods this normalization sited in neighborhoods with declining relative of residential environment coupled with prices compared to elsewhere in the census tract on site and on call specialized care is seen this location bias led a conventional econometric as therapeutic bymany policy makers new specification to erroneously estimate a negative property value impact from supportive housing

large sport events and unemployment the case of the 2006 soccer world cup in germany this study analyses on the basis of a multivariate analysis ex post the effects on the jobs market of a soccer world cup in this case the 2006 world cup held in germany in addition to three methods already used for other analyses in studies of sporting events an extended difference in difference estimate is used in order to compare the development of the numbers of unemployed in the 12 world cup venues with the development of the numbers of unemployed in 63 other german cities the results demonstrate that in none of the respective match venues did the effect of the sporting event on unemployment differ significantly from zero

a long run structural macroeconometric model of the uk a new modelling strategy that provides a practical approach to incorporating long run structural relationships suggested by economic theory in an otherwise unrestricted var model is applied to construct a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the uk estimated over 1965q1 1999q4 in nine variables domestic and foreign outputs prices and interest rates oil prices the nominal effective exchange rate and real money balances the aim is to develop a model with a transparent and theoretically coherent foundation tests of restrictions on the long run relations of the model are presented the dynamic properties of the model are discussed and monetary policy shocks identified

international evidence on the persistence of economic fluctuations abstract this paper presents new evidence on the persistence of fluctuations in real gnp we estimate two measures of persistence nonparametrically using post war quarterly data from canada france germany italy japan the united kingdom and the united states we compare these estimates with monte carlo results from various ar 2 processes for six out of seven countries the point estimates indicate that a 1 shock to output should change the long run unvariate forecast of output by well over 1 low order arma models yield similar conclusions finally we examine the persistence in relative outputs of different countries

international demand and liquidity shocks in a svar model of the australian economy a structural vector autoregressive model of the australian economy that allows for international shocks from the usa japan as well as world commodity prices is specified and estimated for the period 1979 1999 a block exogenous structure linking the three countries is imposed the international linkages are modelled using a factor structure to circumvent problems from estimating large scale dynamic models the factors are estimated recursively using a kalman filter and are found to represent aggregate demand and liquidity shocks for the usa and japan respectively the key empirical result is the usa shocks are the dominant source of international shocks on the australian economy with the japanese economy having a dampening effect on the usa shocks the empirical results also show that australian monetary policy responds to domestic conditions rather than international monetary policy

an empirical examination of long run purchasing power parity using cointegration techniques this paper presents an empirical analysis of long run purchasing power parity ppp for five major exchange rates using recently developed econometric techniques on the cointegration of economic time series our empirical results are extremely unfavourable to the ppp hypothesis as a long run equilibrium condition even with an allowance made for measurement error and or tranportation costs in particular we are unable to reject the hypothesis of non cointegration of the exchange rate and relative prices for any of the countries concerned far from finding a stable long run proportionality between exchange rates and relative prices our results therefore suggest that they tend to drift apart without bound

stochastic trends and economic fluctuations in a small open economy in this paper we describe how restricted vector autoregressions can be employed to examine the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations we show how cointegration restrictions can be used to identify a var system with common stochastic trends subject to transitory and permanent changes in average growth and how we may investigate the system s responses to permanent shocks i e to innovations to the trends theoretical cointegration vectors are derived from a small open economy growth model for terms of trade real gdp real consumption and real investments applying these methods to swedish annual data 1875 1986 we find that permanent real supply shocks account for most of the fluctuations in gdp even in the short run