estimation of production technology when the objective is to maximize return to the outlay abstract this paper deals with estimation of production technology where endogeneous choice of input and output variables is explicitly recognized to address this endogeneity issue we assume that producers maximize return to the outlay we start from a flexible translog transformation function with a single output and multiple inputs and show how the first order conditions of maximizing return to the outlay can be used to come up with an estimating equation that does not suffer from the econometric endogeneity problem although the output and input variables are chosen endogenously this is because the regressors in this estimating equation are in ratio forms which are uncorrelated with the error term under the assumption that producers maximize return to the outlay the analysis is then extended to the multiple outputs and multiple inputs case with technical inefficiency although the estimating equations in both single and multiple output cases are neither production nor distance functions they can be estimated in a straightforward manner using the standard stochastic frontier technique without worrying about endogeneity of the regressors thus we provide a rationale for estimating the technology parameters consistently using an econometric model which requires data on only input and output quantities

household saving in ldcs credit markets insurance and welfare some ways in which farmers in ldcs can protect their living standards against fluctuations in income are discussed after considering the theory of consumption under uncertainty when there is no or limited borrowing the case where some borrowing is allowed is also examined empirical evidence from some ldcs is used to look at i household borrowing and lending their importance and timing and their role in smoothing consumption and ii the life cycle behavior of consumption and income the results suggest that hump lifecycle saving is not likely to be a very important generator of wealth in ldcs and provide further evidence on the limited role of credit markets

resource degradation and adoption of land conservation technologies in the ethiopian highlands a case study in andit tid north shewa abstract this paper reports results from a study of resource degradation and conservation behavior of peasant households in a degraded part of the ethiopian highlands peasant households choice of conservation technologies is modeled as a two stage process recognition of the erosion problem and adoption and level of use of control practices an ordinal logit model is used to explain parcel level perception of the threat of the erosion problem and the extent of use of conservation practices results show the importance of perception of the threat of soil erosion household land and farm characteristics perception of technology specific attributes and land quality differentials in shaping conservation decisions of peasants furthermore where poverty is widespread and appropriate support policies are lacking results indicate that population pressure per se is unable to encourage sustainable land use the challenge of breaking the poverty environment trap and initiating sustainable intensification thus require policy incentives and technologies that confer short term benefits to the poor while conserving the resource base

household level determinants of adoption of improved natural resources management practices among smallholder farmers in western kenya abstract integrated natural resources management inrm of which integrated soil fertility management isfm is a component offers considerable promise for increasing food production in kenya it nonetheless remains unclear whether isfm inrm techniques lend themselves easily to adoption by smallholder farmers using panel data collected in western kenya in 1989 and 2002 this study finds that resource constraints limit many farmers adoption of isfm inrm techniques the size of the farm owned by a household the value of its livestock off farm income family labor supply and the educational attainment and gender of the household head all had a significant positive effect on the likelihood of adoption similar factors were found to be statistically significant in discouraging abandonment of the practices under study there thus seem to exist reinforcing feedback between investments in soil fertility management and household wealth as measured by asset endowments our findings raise important questions as to whether isfm and related techniques are really affordable to poorer smallholder farmers

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

tradeoffs and complementarities in the adoption of improved seeds fertilizer and natural resource management technologies in kenya there is widespread consensus that agricultural technology has an important role to play for poverty reduction and sustainable development there is no consensus however about the types of technologies that are best suited for smallholder farmers in africa while some consider natural resource management nrm technologies as most appropriate others propagate input intensification with a stronger role of the private sector in the public debate these two strategies are often perceived as incompatible environmental non governmental organizations in particular consider low external input strategies as the only sustainable form of agriculture a view that has considerable influence on policymakers and the international donor community most existing research studies on smallholder innovation focus on the adoption of individual technologies so that comparisons between different types of technologies in the same context are not easily possible we use representative data from maize producing households in kenya and a multivariate probit model to analyze the adoption of different types of technologies simultaneously results indicate that nrm technologies and strategies that build on external inputs are not incompatible interesting complementarities exist which are not yet sufficiently exploited because many organizations promote either one type of technology or the other but rarely a combination of both

child labor and agricultural shocks this paper examines the relationship between household income shocks and child labor in particular we investigate the extent to which transitory income shocks lead to increases in child labor and whether household asset holdings mitigate the effects of these shocks using data from a household panel survey in tanzania we find that both relationships are significant we investigate mechanisms that could account for these results including buffer stocks and borrowing

income shocks and gender gaps in education evidence from uganda abstract this paper uses exogenous variation in rainfall across districts in uganda to estimate the causal effects of household income shocks on children s enrollment and academic performance conditional on gender i find negative deviations in rainfall from the long term mean to have negative and highly significant effects on female enrollment in primary schools and the effect grows stronger for older girls i find no effect of rainfall variation on the enrollment of boys and young girls moreover i find that when schooling is free of charge and both marginal boys and girls are enrolled a negative income shock has an adverse effect on the test scores of female students while boys are not affected the results imply that households respond to income shocks by varying the amount of schooling and resources provided to girls while boys are to a large extent sheltered a finding consistent with a model where parents values of child labor differ across sexes

social networks and technology adoption in northern mozambique despite their potentially strong impact on poverty agricultural innovations are often adopted slowly using a unique household dataset on sunflower adoption in mozambique we analyse whether and how individual adoption decisions depend upon the choices of others in the same social networks since farmers anticipate that they will share information with others we expect farmers to be more likely to adopt when they know many other adopters dynamic considerations however suggest that farmers who know many adopters might strategically delay adoption to free ride on the information gathered by others we present empirical evidence that shows that the relationship between the probability of adoption and the number of known adopters is shaped as an inverse u in line with information sharing the network effect is stronger for farmers who report discussing agriculture with others the data contains information which is needed to ameliorate the identification issues that commonly arise in this context in particular social networks are precisely identified and in addition we can control for village heterogeneity and endogenous group formation

a test for complementarities among multiple technologies that avoids the curse of dimensionality abstract we propose a strategy to identify the complementarity or substitutability among technology bundles differences between the observed distribution of technology choices can be subjected to statistical tests combinations of technologies that occur with greater frequency than would occur under independence are complementary technologies combinations that occur with less frequency are substitute technologies we use the strategy to evaluate multiple technology adoptions on us hog farms as the number of bundled technologies increases they are increasingly likely to be complementary with one another even if subsets are substitutes when viewed in isolation

ex ante and ex post labor supply response to risk in a low income area abstract this paper tests for ex ante and ex post labor supply responses to weather risk for rural indian farm households the analysis uses panel data on 2115 households spanning 13 states in rural india merged with a 22 year series of district level rainfall data ex ante households facing riskier distributions of rainfall are more likely to participate in the labor market ex post unexpectedly bad weather and low rainfall increase labor force participation

nutritional status during an economic crisis evidence from russia between 1996 and 1998 russia experienced a spectacular decline in economic activity which was followed by a dramatic rebound between 1998 and 2000 we use panel data to examine the impact of variation in household resources on six dimensions of nutritional status distinguishing longer run from short term fluctuations in resources nutritional status is very resilient to short term variation in household resources gross energy intake adult weight and child stature change very little as expenditure deviates from its long run average longer run resources have a substantively large positive and significant effect on energy intake diet quality adult weight and child stature the evidence indicates that individuals and households are able to weather short term fluctuations in economic resources at least in terms of maintaining body mass and energy intake increased globalisation has resulted in many less developed countries becoming more integrated into world markets this integration carries both benefits and costs for the populations of those countries an oft cited cost is elevated risk of exposure to economic fluctuations which has been manifest in several spectacular economic crises across the globe in the last few decades there is however little evidence on the extent to which individuals and families are able to mitigate deleterious effects of these economic upheavals on their well being in spite of its importance for understanding the consequences of globalisation this article provides new evidence on this issue specifically we examine the relationship between several dimensions of nutritional well being and variation in household resources during the russian economic crisis in the late 1990s the economies of the former soviet bloc have been especially volatile since the transition to market based economies which began in the early 1990s nowhere has this been more true than in russia where in the last half of 1998 real gdp collapsed by around 30 and then rapid growth brought the economy back to its pre crisis level by 2000 the time path of changes in gdp is closely mimicked by changes in the incomes and expenditures of russian households using extremely rich longitudinal household survey data from the russian longitudinal monitoring survey rlms we examine the impact of these large fluctuations in household resources on nutrient intake and on anthropometric markers of nutritional status at the individual level in so doing we address an important issue in the literature regarding the extent to which households in low income settings are able

vulnerability of victims of civil conflicts empirical evidence for the displaced population in colombia summary internal conflicts and the forced displacement often caused by such conflicts impose a heavy burden on the civilian population and greatly damage a community s overall welfare the present study employs a household level survey administered to 2 322 colombian displaced households to estimate changes in household welfare after displacement and to assess aggregate consumption levels in destination sites we also assess whether households are able to smooth consumption and we analyze the strategies they are compelled to adopt in order to cope our results indicate that victims of civil conflict face difficulties in generating income are unable to rely on usual risk sharing mechanisms and are forced to draw upon costly coping strategies in order to smooth consumption the vulnerability of displaced households and the possibility of falling into poverty traps highlight the need to design and implement specific policies for victims of internal conflict in order to cope with the displacement shock

behavioral responses to risk in rural china does risk perpetuate poverty in a credit constrained economy jalan and ravallion study portfolio and other behavioral responses to measured risk using household panel data for rural china one quarter of wealth is held in unproductive liquid forms but only a small share of this appears to be a precaution against income risk the authors estimate that eliminating income risk would reduce the share of wealth held in liquid form by less than 1 percentage point moreover that effect is confined largely to middle income groups high income households do not it seems need to hold unproductive cautionary wealth and the poor probably cannot afford to do so the authors find no evidence that income risk discourages schooling but risk does inhibit the out migration of labor generally the results provide only limited support for the idea that uninsured risks promote unproductive portfolio behavior in this setting there is such an effect but it is small in magnitude and cannot be deemed an important cause of poverty

shocks consumption and income diversification in rural ethiopia abstract we present new evidence that households are unable to protect themselves from rainfall failure that occurs on average every five years in rural ethiopia however other less extreme rainfall variation and idiosyncratic shocks such as illness and crop pests do not impact significantly on consumption agricultural shocks impact negatively on farm income as expected however they also stimulate non agricultural earnings by an equivalent amount in the case of a covariate shock such as severe rainfall failure this smoothing mechanism may be ineffective and rainfall insurance or drought triggered safety nets could provide further protection

precautionary behavior migrant networks and household consumption decisions an empirical analysis using household panel data from rural china abstract we develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption decisions of rural agricultural households among surveyed households facing a median level of consumption risk 10 of savings can be attributed to a precautionary motive and this increases to 15 for households with consumption per capita below the poverty line we next use distant lags of local rainfall shocks uncorrelated with current consumption growth to identify the size of migrant networks outside the village and then present evidence that both poor and nonpoor households engage in less precautionary saving as the size of the village migrant network increases

adoption of agricultural innovations in developing countries a survey this paper reviews various studies which have provided a description and possible explanation to patterns of innovation adoption in the agricultural sector the survey points out that the tendency of many studies to consider innovation adoption in dichotomous terms adoption nonadoption may not be appropriate in many cases where the actual decisions are defined over a more continuous range more attention needs to be given to the socio cultural and institutional environment in area studies so that their interrelation with economic factors affecting adoption can be inferred the presence of several interrelated innovations is another aspect that needs to be considered more carefully in future research since a number of simultaneous decisions may be involved furthermore the possibility of regular sequential patterns in adopting components of a new technological package should be specifically addressed in future studies finally the impact of differential adoption rates on land holding distribution merits attention in future research

soil fertility management and socio economic factors in crop livestock systems in burkina faso a case study of composting technology abstract the relation between technology adoption and farmers socio economic characteristics has increasingly been given attention in developing countries however most of the studies conducted by economists dealt with the adoption of external technologies here we test the determinants of compost adoption an alternative indigenous technology for soil fertility management the results of analysis of data from burkina faso using logit model strongly support the hypothesis that farmers socio economic characteristics and their agro ecological location significantly affect their adoption decisions there are two main conclusions of this study first the agro ecological location of farmers influence their decision to widely adopt compost technology second among farmers characteristics affecting compost adoption three groups can be distinguished the most important socio economic characteristics are farmers age their comparative perception on the yield effect of compost with regards to other fertilizers and their annual agricultural income a second group of characteristics include the institutional factors which are represented by the farmers participation in extension workshops a third group of factors comprises the farmer s labor force participating rate the number of ruminants owned and farmers gender

health shocks and natural resource management evidence from western kenya poverty and altered planning horizons brought on by the hiv aids epidemic can change individual discount rates altering incentives to conserve natural resources using longitudinal household survey data from western kenya we estimate the effects of health status on investments in soil quality as indicated by households agricultural land fallowing decisions we first show that this effect is theoretically ambiguous while health improvements lower discount rates and thus increase incentives to conserve natural resources they also increase labor productivity and make it more likely that households can engage in labor intensive resource extraction activities we find that household size and composition are predictors of whether the effect of health improvements on discount rates dominates the productivity effect or vice versa since households with more and younger members are better able to reallocate labor to cope with productivity shocks the discount rate effect dominates for these households and health improvements lead to greater levels of conservation in smaller families with less substitutable labor the productivity effect dominates and health improvements lead to greater environmental degradation

conservation agriculture organic marketing and collective action in the honduran hillsides conservation agriculture ca is often perceived to provide win win outcomes for farmers leading to reduced erosion and off site sedimentation as well as improved soil fertility and productivity however adoption rates for ca in many regions of the world remain below expected levels this article looks at the effects of participation in organic markets and farmers organizations on the adoption of soil conservation practices based on original survey data from 241 small scale farm households in honduras we find that both participation in organic markets and farmer based groups have positive effects on the number of soil conservation practices adopted the results indicate that besides supply oriented policy measures such as the provision of technical assistance and extension demand related factors are likely to play an important role in sustainable soil management demand oriented policy measures include support for labeling initiatives and consumer education to facilitate value added product differentiation and market segmentation jel classifications q01 q12 q13 q16

stochastic estimation of firm inefficiency using distance functions econometric estimation of allocative and technical efficiency has frequently been carried out using a shadow cost function and its associated share or demand equations since the problem is formulated in terms of shadow prices the effect of allocative inefficiency on input usage must be computed indirectly from input share or demand equations as an alternative approach we derive and estimate an input shadow distance system comprising the dual shadow input distance function and the price equations derived from the shadow cost minimization problem estimated shadow quantities provide direct estimates of the effect of allocative inefficiency on input usage one can also easily calculate firm and time varying technical inefficiency by decomposing the residuals we also compute returns to scale and the cost savings obtained by eliminating both types of inefficiency our approach is illustrated using a panel of u s railroads both the cost function and the distance function are valid representations of multioutput technologies the arguments of the cost function are output quantities and input prices while the arguments of the distance function are input and output quantities the input distance function measures the extent to which the firm is input efficient in producing a given set of outputs while the cost function assumes cost minimization by a firm which is input efficient the shadow cost function is a generalization of the cost function and depends on output quantities and shadow internal to the firm input prices rather than actual market input prices thus the shadow cost function assumes shadow cost minimization but not actual cost minimization this function has frequently been employed in fixed effects estimation of allocative efficiency ae and technical efficiency te an observed input vector is technically efficient if it is on the isoquant of the observed output vector an input vector is allocatively efficient if the radial contraction of the input vector to the isoquant is cost minimizing identification of parameters that measure ae can be achieved by the estimation of a shadow cost system comprising the actual cost equation and the share or input demand equations which are expressed in terms of shadow prices and output quantities shadow cost systems have been estimated by atkinson and halvorsen 1984 sickles good and johnson 1986 eakin and kniesner 1988 kumbhakar 1992 and atkinson and cornwell 1994 among others given panel data the deviation of shadow from actual input prices can be measured by price specific inefficiency parameters that may vary across firms and over time however the estimation of the effect of

estimating a non minimum cost function for hospitals hospital costs have been rigorously scrutinized by economists and health policy experts for several decades despite the large volume of research two related problems persist first although theoretical models of hospital behavior such as 9 and 10 suggest systematic deviations from cost minimization there has been little attention given to modelling and measuring this inefficiency second because cost minimization is a questionable maintained hypothesis most hospital cost research has not used cost functions that are dual to production technology consequently the technological concepts of scale and factor substitution are obscured we address these twin problems by developing and estimating a long run cost function that allows for systematic allocative inefficiency the parameter estimates we present also provide information on the traditional production concepts of scale and factor substitution as well as information on the size and source of allocative inefficiency in u s hospitals hospital services clearly comprise a large industry short term hospital expenditures were 120 billion in 1984 for example the u s short term hospital sector has increased in relative size by a factor of 2 5 since 1960 so that short term hospital expenditures are now about 3 6 percent of the gnp in the united states while industry size alone probably justifies an empirical investigation into the production technology for hospital services we are also motivated by the relevance of our findings to several health policy issues measures of scale economies are crucial in forming public policies concerning entry exit and mergers in the hospital industry yet most studies have not actually estimated the technological concept of scale elasticities of factor substitution are also technological and economic concepts that should be of interest to health policy makers these measures indicate the extent to which cost increases can be avoided by substituting away from the factor whose price has increased hospital cost estimates that do not include factor

sources of investment inefficiency the case of fixed asset investment in china abstract this study attempts to measure the inefficiency associated with aggregate investment in a transitional economy the inefficiency is decomposed into allocative and technical inefficiency based on standard production theory allocative inefficiency is measured by the deviation of actual investment from the theoretically desired investment demand institutional factors are then identified as part of the driving force of the deviation the resulting model is applied to chinese provincial panel data the main findings are chinese investment demand is strongly receptive to expansionary fiscal policies and inter provincial network effects the tendency of over investment remains even with signs of increasing allocative efficiency and improving technical efficiency

sequential adoption of site specific technologies and its implications for nitrogen productivity a double selectivity model this paper analyzes the sequential decision to adopt two site specific technologies soil testing and variable rate technology and the impact of adoption on nitrogen productivity the results indicate that while farm location was a key variable influencing adoption of soil testing farm size human capital and innovativeness of farmers had a significant impact on adoption of variable rate technology in four midwestern states a double selectivity model applied to correct for sample selection bias shows that adoption leads to significant gains in nitrogen productivity for farms with below average soil quality but statistically insignificant gains for farms with above average soil quality copyright 2001 oxford university press

pre recession efficiencies and input allocation decisions of agricultural and critically insolvent banks abstractthe late 2000s economic recession is considered the longest economic downturn since the 1930s great depression declining real estate values ignited an increase in loan defaults and mortgage foreclosures that led to a surge of bank failures at a rate not experienced by the u s banking industry since the 1980s a total of 509 bank failures were recorded by the fdic from january 2007 december 2014 with nearly 60 of these failures occurring in 2009 and 2010 in contrast there were only 24 bank failures in the u s during the 7 year period prior to 2007 this study analyzed certain components of operating decisions made by banks that either survived or became critically insolvent during the late 2000s financial crisis using an input distance stochastic frontier function to estimate the technical efficiency te and allocative efficiency ae between agricultural banks and non agricultural banks this efficiency analysis was applied to a 7 year pre recession period and is designed to final out any

identifying the free riders a simple algorithm for determining who will contribute to a public good abstract when a heterogeneous group of people provide themselves with a pure public good the resulting nash equilibrium outcome will divide the group into contributors and free riders this paper proposes a general algorithm for discovering which individuals in the group fall into which of these two classes the algorithm is based on identifying for each individual how much of the public good must be provided by others to drive that individual s contribution to zero

are there systematic gender differences in the adoption of sustainable agricultural intensification practices evidence from kenya this paper uses sex disaggregated survey data at the plot level to test whether there are systematic gender differences in the adoption of multiple sustainable intensification practices sips in kenya we analyze plot level adoption decisions of sips by male female or joint plot managers within the household controlling for household characteristics asset wealth and land quality factors that condition investments in intensification options using a multivariate probit model we find gender differences in the adoption pattern for some sips compared to male plot mangers female managers are less likely to adopt minimum tillage and animal manure in crop production indicating the existence of certain socioeconomic inequalities and barriers for female farmers however we find no gender differences in the adoption of soil and water conservation measures improved seed varieties chemical fertilizers maize legume intercropping and maize legume rotations

the heterogeneous effect of shocks on agricultural innovations adoption microeconometric evidence from rural ethiopia abstract theoretically the relationship between shocks and agricultural innovation adoption could be ambiguous while shocks could lower the competence and capacity of households to adopt new agricultural innovations households can also take up agricultural innovations as a coping mechanism against the different shocks they face using a nationally representative household data from ethiopia of the living standards measurement study integrated surveys on agriculture lsms isa of the world bank this paper analyzes the effect of idiosyncratic and covariate shocks on adoption of different agricultural innovations assuming interdependence among the innovations we find shocks to have heterogeneous effects on the adoption of agricultural innovations specifically production and health shocks have negative effects on the adoption of high cost innovations such as improved seeds chemical fertilizer and irrigation however production shocks are positively associated with low cost innovations such as organic fertilizer to enhance farmers adoption of agricultural innovations especially high cost innovations there is a greater need towards the design of policies and interventions that would reduce household s exposure to production and health shocks

nonmarket institutions for credit and risk sharing in low income countries the design credit and risk institutions in low income countries provides one of the most exciting testing grounds for theories of contracting with imperfect information and limited enforcement this paper reviews some of the recent literature with a special focus on nonmarket institutions that cope with risk and provide credit this literature attempts to bring together insights from economic theory especially information economics contract theory and mechanism design theory however it is also applied being motivated by the circumstance of the poor countries that their authors have visited and studied

trade aid and migrations some basic policy issues the link between trade policy and international migration is explored using data from the united states and europe we conclude that restrictive trade policies in industrialised countries have most likely added to migration pressures we then turn to the broader question of the effects of income growth in the sending countries on the propensity to migrate we argue that in relatively poor countries an increase in income will be associated with higher migration flows for middle income countries however income growth will lead to lower migrations in the medium run therefore the relationship between development levels as measured by gdp per capita and the propensity to migrate follows an inverse u pattern econometric analysis of aggregate migration flows from southern europe provides considerable support for such conjecture excerpt

permanent household income and consumption in urban south america milton friedman s permanent income hypothesis pih is considerably more complex and difficult to test than it appears at first sight which is why certain of its postulates still cannot be accepted or rejected with certainty one of the chief difficulties is that of separating the effects on consumption of permanent income which is unobservable and of various observable household characteristics which may be highly correlated with permanent income but may also be presumed to affect consumption directly this difficulty can be overcome provided a variable can be found which is associated with permanent income but has no independent direct effect on the propensity to consume if households are grouped by classes of that variable the permanent consumption propensity or elasticity can be estimated from mean income and consumption in the groups this technique requires the assumption of zero mean transitory income in each group but does not depend on the postulate that transitory income is uncorrelated with consumption for these reasons it cannot be applied to individual households this paper presents and estimates a model which separates the direct and indirect effects on consumption of a series of observable characteristics using regression techniques on individual household observations this makes it possible to estimate all the parameters of the model both the consumption propensity or elasticity and the contribution to permanent income of each observable explanatory variable the technique still requires that at least one of the explanatory variables affect consumption only through permanent income but for all other variables both direct and indirect influences can be estimated and the propensity to consume a given income can vary among households with different characteristics another principal problem with the pih is the assumption that transitory income and consumption are uncorrelated efforts to test this postulate can lead to very different results ranging from agreement with the hypothesis to findings of high propensities to consume transitory income see robert ferber pp 1306 09 this inconsistency and continued controversy over the hypothesis is due to the fact that permanent income cannot be estimated exactly but can be known only with an error which is conceptually distinct from transitory income empirical work on the pih has uniformly overlooked this fact treating estimates of permanent income as exact and regarding the whole of the unexplained residual as transitory income the present model explicitly distinguishes the estimation error from the error of transitory income or consumption the two transitory components can then be assumed to be uncorrelated while the part of permanent income which is not explained is consumed exactly like the explained part whether residual income and consumption appear to be correlated or not then depends on the relative sizes of these two components the unexplained permanent part and the true transitory part this technique has the further advantage that estimating the variance of the error of estimation makes it possible to tell how well a set of observable variables explain permanentincome this explanation may be better than the brookings institution robert solow richard eckaus and robert hall supervised the dissertation 1974 on which this article is based i am particularly grateful to ross williams and robert hall for help in specifying and estimating the model and to denisard alves for a crucial suggestion william cline irwin friend ricardo ffrench davis and robert ferber provided helpful comments on earlier versions subsequent discussions with surjit bhalla and robert lawrence have been most useful i am also much indebted to the managing editor and to a referee for improvements in the final version

do migrants really save more understanding the impact of remittances on savings in rural china abstract this article studies the impact of remittances on the savings behaviour of rural households in china using a primary survey undertaken by the authors in 2006 allowing for endogeneity and left censoring of remittances we find that the marginal propensity to save out of remittances is well below half of that out of other sources of incomes moreover we find no evidence of any direct effect of remittances on either capital input or gross output of farm production these findings are robust with respect to alternative definition of savings and are in line with recent studies which conclude that remittances are largely used for consumption purposes by rural chinese households

income smoothing and consumption smoothing one way that risk averse households protect consumption levels is to borrow and use insurance mechanisms another way common in low income economies is to diversify economic activities and make conservative production and employment choices households thus tend toward limiting exposure only to shocks that can be handled with available credit and insurance typically both types of mechanisms are studied independently but much more can be learned by studying them together first we obtain a more complete picture of risks costs and insurance possibilities second it opens the way to considering biases in standard tests of credit and insurance

fiscal stress and the production of public safety a distance function approach abstract faced with increasing crime rates but nonincreasing budgets local governments are seeking cost saving means of providing public safety this paper investigates a bureaucracy s response to fiscal stress as well as its ability to efficiently substitute civilian for uniformed personnel exploiting duality theory a distance function is used to model technology retrieve information concerning substitutability and shadow prices of personnel and test for cost minimization morishima elasticities are adopted to allow for asymmetry in substitution between types of personnel it is found that the more adverse the public safety environment and budgetary condition the more efficiently resources are allocated

buffer stock savings by portfolio adjustment evidence from rural india the empirical literature on household savings tends to treat savings simply as the residual of income minus consumption this article takes a unique approach to reconstruct the cash and asset balances using detailed household transaction data on farm households in rural india and generates monthly and seasonal icrisat panel data for the period 1976 1983 we have found that households irrespective of their landholding status cope with temporary shocks quite well by using crop inventory currency and capital assets rather than livestock as buffer assets the importance of portfolio adjustments in smoothing consumption is also confirmed by the use of a system of equations in which both portfolio and production decisions are made endogenous it is concluded that not only the level but also the diversification of household assets are important for buffering consumption as an extension we have explored the monthly icrisat panel data for the period 2009 2012 in the same villages and have found a similar pattern in household portfolio responses to income shocks

output allocative and technical efficiency of banks abstract in this paper we calculate output allocative and technical efficiency for a sample of small banks operating in 1982 we do so by estimating a shephard type output distance function as a deterministic frontier in general we find that the banks in our sample are output inefficient

economic shocks diversification and forest use in uganda we investigate household outcomes arising from economic shocks in rural uganda focusing on patterns of income diversification and forest use and the role of assets in shaping ex post response to shocks income poor households and those with below average landholdings are observed to have more diversified income portfolios than their cohorts households encountering above average losses tend to have more diversified income portfolios subsequent to the losses larger negative shocks are associated with greater use of the forest in subsequent periods especially among asset poor households findings suggest that development of better safety nets would reduce both vulnerability and forest pressure

adoption of improved wheat varieties and impacts on household food security in ethiopia this article evaluates the impact of the adoption of improved wheat varieties on food security using a recent nationally representative dataset of over 2000 farm households in ethiopia we adopted endogenous switching regression treatment effects complemented with a binary propensity score matching methodology to test robustness and reduced selection bias stemming from both observed and unobserved characteristics we expand this further with the generalized propensity score gps approach to evaluate the effects of continuous treatment on the response of the outcome variables we find a consistent result across models indicating that adoption increases food security and farm households that did adopt would also have benefited significantly had they adopted new varieties this study supports the need for vital investments in agricultural research for major food staples widely consumed by the poor and efforts to improve access to modern varieties and services policies that enhance diffusion and adoption of modern wheat varieties should be central to food security strategies in ethiopia

cropping system diversification conservation tillage and modern seed adoption in ethiopia impacts on household income agrochemical use and demand for labor the type and combination of sustainable agricultural practices saps adopted have a significant effect on agricultural productivity and food security this study develops a multinomial endogenous switching regression model of farmers choice of combination of saps and impacts on maize income and agrochemicals and family labor use in rural ethiopia four primary results were found first adoption of saps increases maize income and the highest payoff is achieved when saps are adopted in combination rather than in isolation second nitrogen fertilizer use is lower in the package that contains system diversification and conservation tillage third conservation tillage increased pesticide application and labor demand perhaps to compensate for reduced tillage however when it is used jointly with system diversification it does not have a significant impact on pesticide and labor use fourth in most cases adoption of a package of saps increases women workload suggesting that agricultural intensification technology interventions may not be gender neutral this implies that policy makers and other stakeholders promoting a combination of technologies can enhance household food security through increasing income and reducing production costs but need to be aware of the potential gender related outcomes

excess input expenditure estimated by means of an input distance function the case of public railways the input distance function is used to estimate excess input expenditure with reference to four european public railways this technique exploits the properties of the input distance function and allows excess input cost to be estimated over a minimum level rather than excess input usage this simplifies the computation of the cost of allocative inefficiency making the estimations easier and more reliable the results for the four railway systems reveal a substantial and statistically significant input expenditure in excess over the minimum level when evaluated over the whole sample period 1971 87 however differences between the four systems reduce over time all of the public railway systems show a clear tendency towards the reduction of inefficiency independent of dimension

analysing wage differentials when workers maximize the return to human capital investment abstractthe analysis of the determinants of differences in wages across workers has traditionally relied on the estimation of average earnings functions in this article we propose a new theoretical model where it is the workers who decide the amount they wish to invest in human capital taking into account the costs of acquiring those skills for the purpose of maximizing earnings in this model both human capital and marginal productivity are likely to be influenced by the individual s unobserved characteristics such as ability or motivation potentially giving rise to endogeneity problems in this context the empirical implementation of our theoretical model allows us under certain assumptions to obtain consistent estimates even under the assumption of endogeneity we present an empirical application to the education sector using data from the spanish structure of earnings survey 2010 our results show that females and workers in the private education sector face more difficulties in achieving t

the macroeconomic consequences of disasters abstract natural disasters have a statistically observable adverse impact on the macro economy in the short run and costlier events lead to more pronounced slowdowns in production yet interestingly developing countries and smaller economies face much larger output declines following a disaster of similar relative magnitude than do developed countries or bigger economies a close study of the determinants of these adverse macroeconomic output costs reveals several interesting patterns countries with a higher literacy rate better institutions higher per capita income higher degree of openness to trade and higher levels of government spending are better able to withstand the initial disaster shock and prevent further spillovers into the macro economy these all suggest an increased ability to mobilize resources for reconstruction financial conditions also seem to be of importance countries with more foreign exchange reserves and higher levels of domestic credit but with less open capital accounts appear more robust and better able to endure natural disasters with less adverse spillover into domestic production

migration risk and liquidity constraints in el salvador abstract this article utilizes panel data from el salvador to investigate the use of transnational migration as an ex post risk management strategy i show that adverse agricultural conditions in el salvador increase both migration to the united states and remittances sent back to el salvador i show that in the absence of any agricultural shocks the probability that a household sent members to the united states would have decreased on average by 24 26 i also show that the 2001 earthquakes reduced net migration to the united states a one standard deviation increase in earthquake damage reduced the average probability of northward migration by 37 11 the evidence suggests that the effects of the earthquakes had more to do with households retaining labor at home to cope with the effects of the disaster than with the earthquakes disrupting migration financing

foreign aid and public goods abstract most less developed countries ldcs use foreign economic aid to finance public consumption goods or public intermediate inputs this paper constructs a two country general equilibrium trade model where an income transfer that takes place between the two countries is used by the recipient to finance a public consumption good within this framework the paper identifies the conditions under which the income transfer improves or deteriorates the donor country s terms of trade and shows that the transfer can be welfare enriching for the donor and welfare immiserizing for the recipient country the paper also demonstrates that the transfer can raise reduce world welfare in which case a welfare increase decrease in both the donor and the recipient country is possible

using weather variability to estimate the response of savings to transitory income in thailand this paper measures the extent to which farmers are able to use savings and dissavings to smooth consumption in response to unexpected shocks to income time series information on regional rainfall is used to construct estimates of transitory income due to rainfall shocks the relationship between these measures of transitory income and savings indicates that farm households save a significantly higher fraction of transitory income than nontransitory income jel d91 016 the incomes of farm households in developing countries are notorious for being both low and uncertain policies that increase the incomes of farmers may well be different

smoothing consumption by smoothing income hours of work responses to idiosyncratic agricultural shocks in rural india while research has demonstrated that farm households in developing economies are able to protect consumption from idiosyncratic crop shocks little evidence shows how this is achieved this paper examines the extent to which labor markets allow households to shift labor from farm to off farm employment and the extent to which such a shift explains the observed lack of correlation between consumption and idiosyncratic crop shocks the empirical analysis uses a novel measure of the idiosyncratic crop income shock which utilizes information on start of season cropping choices to more accurately estimate household expectations of weather

yield gap based poverty gaps in rural sub saharan africa summary given africa s challenge of feeding a growing population narrowing yield gaps is an efficient way of raising production under covariate constraints using household panel data from 21 regions in eight sub saharan african countries this article unravels the determinants of yield gaps it also tests the hypothesis that poverty gaps are increasing with yield gaps the results suggest that yield gaps are increasing with cultivated area that yield differences are reducing with fertilizer use particularly when combined with improved seeds in low production potential regions that poverty gaps are increasing with yield gaps particularly in low production potential regions

policies for sustainable development in the hillside areas of honduras a quantitative livelihoods approach in this article we use data for 376 households 1 066 parcels and 2 143 plots located in 95 villages in the hillside areas in honduras to generate information needed by decision makers to assess the needs and opportunities for public investments and design policies that stimulate natural resource conservation we develop a quantitative livelihood approach using factor and cluster analysis to group households based on the use of their main assets this resulted in seven household categories that pursue similar livelihood strategies we use a multinomial logit model to show that livelihood strategies are determined by comparative advantages as reflected by a combination of biophysical and socioeconomic variables while 92 of the rural hillsides population in honduras lives on us 1 00 capita day or less households that follow a livelihood strategy based on basic grain farming are the poorest because they often live in isolated areas with relatively poor agro ecological and socioeconomic conditions opportunities for off farm work tend to be limited in these areas and household strategies that combine on farm work with off farm work earn higher incomes per capita incomes can be increased by improving road infrastructure widening access to land policies that reduce household size and dependency ratios and adoption of sustainable land management technologies that restore soil fertility we used probit models to show that the latter can be promoted by agricultural extension programs and land redistribution investments in physical assets should be directed toward households that pursue livelihood strategies based on off farm employment or coffee production while agricultural training programs are best focused on livestock producers

does trade cause capital to flow evidence from historical rainfall abstract we use a historical quasi experiment to estimate the causal effect of trade on capital flows we argue that fluctuations in regional rainfall within the ottoman empire capture the exogenous variation in exports from the empire to germany france and the u k during the period of 1859 1913 the identification is based on the following historical facts first only surplus production was allowed to be exported from the empire provisionistic policy second different products grown in different regions were subject to variation in regional rainfall third different bundles of products were exported to germany france and the u k by the empire using the export bundle weighted regional rainfall as an instrument for ottoman exports to each country our instrumental variable regression suggests the following when a given region of the empire received more rainfall than others the resulting surplus production was exported more to countries that historically imported more of those products and this leads to higher foreign investment by those countries in the empire our findings support theories predicting complementarity between trade and finance in which causality runs from trade to capital flows

who are the members of the international club this article proposes pragmatic methods that incorporate recent contributions to public good theory to identify the members of the international club and how they select new members this article also suggests simple applications to the recent problems in international clubs such as the euro and nato

neighbors and extension agents in ethiopia who matters more for technology adoption improving agricultural productivity is seen as vital to economic growth in poor countries particularly in sub saharan africa where productivity growth has lagged behind that of other continents the focus has therefore been on new technologies particularly the adoption and diffusion of improved seed varieties and the increased use of fertiliser supported by investments in effective extension services it is important to understand how these new technologies spread and the effectiveness of extension services in this process

the allocative efficiency measure by means of a distance function the case of spanish public railways abstract this paper is an empirical application of the distance function to study the allocative efficiency of a regulated railway spanish firm renfe where the cost minimising hypothesis may be questioned besides and in contrast with other studies we include the possibility of the presence of persistent allocative inefficiency to achieve these aims we have estimated a system of equations for the inputs distance function and cost shares using annual data over the period 1955 95 using this procedure we have checked the presence of persistent allocative inefficiency in particular a systematic overutilisation of labour and underutilisation of capital moreover we have found some empirical evidence that since 1984 management contracts have improved the input allocation in spanish railways

factors influencing adoption of land enhancing technology in the sahel lessons from a case study in niger abstract technical change through the introduction of land enhancing conservation technologies is essential to economic growth in the sahel tobit analysis was used to identify factors that motivate level and intensity of adoption of specific soil and water management technologies the results show that higher percentage of degraded farmland extension education lower risk aversion and the availability of short term profits are important for increasing the adoption and intensity of use of improved tassa and half crescent shaped earthen mounds age and attitudes to differential gains between farm and non farm income showed no influence on adoption three main policy implications emerge from these findings first technologies should be targeted to locations that have large percentages of degraded farmlands the probability of adoption and intensity of use are likely to be high at such locations second there is the need to provide extension education that demonstrates risk reduction capacities of conservation techniques this will make available information capable of stimulating adoption of land enhancing technologies finally policy makers should not seek to target innovations to younger farmers because age has no relationship to adoption of the improved tassa and half crescent shaped earthen mounds lessons from the case study have broad relevance to cropped areas in the sahel

slacks determinants in brazilian railways a distance friction minimization approach with fixed factors this study investigates the drivers for output increasing input saving potentials in the brazilian railway industry which has undergone significant transformations since its privatization in the mid 1990s the main research objective is to determine whether or not different types of cargoes and geographic regions serviced present a significant impact on railway slacks by applying a distance friction minimization dfm approach with fixed factors based on a balanced panel model secondary data from the period 2004 to 2012 were collected and analysed results support anecdotal evidence regarding a heterogeneous impact of types of cargo and geographic location on input reducing and output increasing potentials besides network length and average speed policy implications for railway authorities are also addressed by focusing on the specifics of each railway operator

on the provision of official and private foreign aid abstract the provision of official relative to private foreign aid varies considerably between donor countries we explain the variations in terms of country size household composition income distribution and the government s ability to commit to aid and derive inter alia the results 1 official aid crowds out private aid 2 total aid and official aid collected from each household are lower in more populous countries 3 total aid is lower if i the distribution of income favors the more altruistic households and ii the government can credibly commit to a certain level of aid evidences suggest that the theoretical results can explain stylized facts

the relative efficiency of public and private firms in a regulated environment the case of u s electric utilities abstract the relative efficiency of privately owned and publicly owned electric utilities is investigated using theoretical and econometric models that allow for the effects of both ownership type and regulation the estimation results indicate that the two types of firms are equally cost inefficient in the united states the average effect of inefficiency is to increase the cost of production by 2 4 percent holding output constant inefficiency increases the average quantities demanded of capital and labor and decreases the average quantity demanded of fuel

household responses to economic and demographic shocks marginal logit analysis using indonesian data abstract we analyse the responses of indonesian households to demographic and economic shocks and examine how these responses vary in relation to the household s permanent income and the extent to which the shock is common across the community households respond in different ways to demographic and economic shocks economic shocks are more likely to result in a labour supply response from the household and this probability is further increased if the shock is common for rural households use of savings increases with permanent income the article also examines the role of the interviewer in influencing survey responses

aid and migration substitutes or complements this paper investigates the impact of aid on migration and identifies two channels bilateral aid influences migration by enhancing the information about labor market conditions in the destination country attraction effect total aid correlates with migration through increasing expenditure financing and hence wages in countries of origin push effect we compute the critical level of income above which emigration and income are substitutes which is about us 7 300 per capita in ppp 2000 prices for example brazil or russia we argue that for countries below this threshold there is a trade off between aid and migration policies a tightening of the migration policy is equivalent to a reduction of the level of aid by about 24 a comparison of skilled and unskilled migrations shows that the former are more sensitive to the attraction effect than the latter

natural disasters and labor markets abstract while it is clear that natural disasters have serious welfare consequences for affected populations less is known about how local labor markets in low income countries adjust to such large shocks combining data from the indonesia family life survey the desinventar database the u s geological survey and district level employment indicators this paper explores how a large earthquake in indonesia affected labor market outcomes in particular the evolution of wages across sectors i find that the earthquake had a positive effect on wage growth for workers who were employed in the agricultural sector at baseline i propose two mechanisms for this result a higher growth rate of the price of rice and a downward shift in the supply of workers in the agricultural sector i show that evidence mainly supports the latter labor shifted out of the agricultural sector into the construction sector raising the marginal product of labor in agriculture

the old age security hypothesis reconsidered abstract that the introduction of a means for transferring present to future consumption other than children in a developing country will reduce the rate of population growth is shown to depend crucially on the assumption that parents do not care about the numbers or the welfare of the children they have when parents do care the conclusion no longer unambiguously follows because the new means for providing for parents old age leads to a positive income effect

the impact of conditional cash transfers on consumption and investment in nicaragua abstract this article examines the impact of a nicaraguan conditional cash transfer programme on measures of expenditures and productive investment despite clear evidence from a randomised evaluation that the programme increased current expenditures there is little evidence that it increased agricultural or non agricultural investment an estimated marginal propensity to consume out of the transfers of nearly one combined with no effect of cumulative past transfers on current consumption corroborate the direct evidence on investment in contrast to gains made in human capital investment the potential for long term increases in consumption as a result of other forms of increased investment may be limited

analysis of adoption and impacts of improved maize varieties in eastern zambia summary this paper analyzes the adoption and welfare impacts of improved maize varieties in eastern zambia using data obtained from a sample of over 800 farm households using both propensity score matching and endogenous switching regression models the paper shows that adoption of improved maize leads to significant gains in crop incomes consumption expenditure and food security results further show that improved maize varieties have significant poverty reducing impacts in eastern zambia the paper concludes with implications for policies to promote adoption and impacts of modern varieties in zambia

managing environmental risk in presence of climate change the role of adaptation in the nile basin of ethiopia this study investigates the impact of climate change adaptation on farm households downside risk exposure in the nile basin of ethiopia the analysis relies on a moment based specification of the stochastic production function we use an empirical strategy that accounts for the heterogeneity in the decision on whether to adapt or not and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm we find that past adaptation to climate change i reduces current downside risk exposure and so the risk of crop failure ii would have been more beneficial to the non adapters if they adapted in terms of reduction in downside risk exposure and iii is a successful risk management strategy that makes the adapters more resilient to climatic conditions

the adoption and impact of soil and water conservation technology an endogenous switching regression application this paper identifies the factors that affect farmers decisions to adopt soil and water conservation technology in africa and how this technology impacts farm yields and net returns this technology is important because it improves efficiency of water use from rainfall a critical issue in water deficient sub saharan africa an analysis of new data from a survey of 342 rice farmers in northern ghana shows that farmers education capital and labor constraints social networks and extension contacts and farm soil conditions mainly determine adoption of field ridging and the adoption of this technology increases rice yields and net returns significantly jel q15 q24

international aid from the recipient perspective public or private good input assistance abstractthis article proposes a theoretical model from the recipient perspective that considers what type of assistance a donor country should provide public good assistance or private good assistance we investigate the effects of migration and free riders under both types of assistance we empirically apply this model to the rapidly growing economies and a large official development assistance disbursement for east asia

modeling multiple adoption decisions in a joint framework a multinomial probit mnp model is applied to the modeling of adoption decisions by farmers facing multiple technologies which can be adopted in various combinations this model allows for full investigation of the interactions between decisions to adopt or not adopt several technologies estimation is carried out in a bayesian framework employing gibbs sampling to circumvent past difficulties encountered in maximum likelihood estimation of the mnp model the model is estimated for a sample of u s apple growers with four possible sustainable production technology bundles the results show that adoption decisions are most significantly influenced by off farm labor supply

imperfect commitment altruism and the family evidence from transfer behavior in low income rural areas in this paper we examine empirically whether risk pooling is more advantageous among altruistic compared to selfish agents in a framework where individuals cannot make binding commitments in particular we incorporate altuism into a model of risk sharing under imperfect commitment and use simulation methods to establish tests of the roles of both altruism and commitment problems in determining the extent of insurance and the intertemporal movements in interhousehold transfers the tests are carried out using three panel data sets from two countries of rural south asia that provide detailed information on transfers and enable the measurement of income shocks the estimates provide strong support for the notion that imperfect commitment substantially constrains informal transfer arrangements whether kin based or not but also provide evidence that altruism plays an important role in ameliorating commitment constraints and thus in increasing the gains from income pooling

effects of transitory shocks to aggregate output on consumption in poor countries this paper provides instrumental variables estimates of the response of aggregate private consumption to transitory output shocks in poor countries to identify exogenous unanticipated idiosyncratic and transitory variations in national output we use year to year variations in rainfall as an instrumental variable in a panel of 39 sub saharan african countries during the period 1980 2009 our estimates yield a marginal propensity to consume out of transitory output of around 0 2 to explain this result we show using instrumental variables techniques that there is a significant negative effect of transitory output shocks on net current transfers and a significant positive and quantitatively large effect on the trade balance an important implication is that frictions to private financial flows do not necessarily imply large effects of transitory shocks to aggregate output on private consumption in poor countries

consumption risk technology adoption and poverty traps evidence from ethiopia much has been written on the determinants of input and technology adoption in agriculture with issues such as input availability knowledge and education risk preferences profitability and credit constraints receiving much attention this paper focuses on a factor that has been less well documented the differential ability of households to take on risky production technologies for fear of the welfare consequences if shocks result in poor harvests building on an explicit model this is explored in panel data for ethiopia historical rainfall distributions are used to identify the counterfactual consumption risk controlling for unobserved household and time varying village characteristics it emerges that not just ex ante credit constraints but also the possibly low consumption outcomes when harvests fail discourage the application of fertilizer the lack of insurance causes inefficiency in production choices