money and capital abstract the effects of money anticipated inflation on capital formation is a classic issue in macroeconomics previous papers adopt reduced form approaches putting money in the utility function or imposing cash in advance but using otherwise frictionless models we follow instead a literature that tries to be explicit about the frictions making money essential this introduces new elements including a two sector structure with centralized and decentralized markets stochastic trading opportunities and bargaining these elements matter quantitatively and numerical results differ from findings in the reduced form literature the analysis also reduces a gap between microfounded monetary economics and mainstream macro

the distribution of money and prices in search equilibrium this article considers a search theoretic model of monetary exchange agents bargain over both the amount of money and the quantity of goods to be exchanged in bilateral meetings determining endogenously the distributions of money and of prices i show that money is neutral if changes in the money supply are accomplished via proportional transfers however within the class of lump sum transfers an increase of the rate of monetary expansion tends to decrease the dispersion of wealth and prices and to improve welfare when inflation is low but when inflation is high enough the opposite effects occur

output prices and the velocity of money in search equilibrium a monetary search model with match specific preferences and traded quantities is analyzed to assess how aggregate output the price level and the velocity of money are affected by various forms of technological change changes in the productive technology lead to output and prices moving in opposite directions but provide no prediction for monetary velocity the matching technology directly affects monetary velocity and output but has little impact on prices transactions technologies which affect the fixed cost of trading are ambiguous with respect to comovements of output and prices but systematically impact velocity

precautionary demand for money in a monetary business cycle model we investigate the quantitative implications of precautionary demand for money for business cycle dynamics of velocity of money and other nominal aggregates there is a standing challenge in monetary macroeconomics to account for business cycle dynamics of nominal variables as previous business cycle models that have tried to incorporate demand for money have failed to generate realistic predictions in this regard our stance is that part of this failure results from the fact that demand for money in those previous models is deterministic since agents in them face only aggregate risk whereas we believe idiosyncratic risk to be important as well we conduct the exercise inside a monetary search model as our additional goal is to put to the test a recent generation of such frictional models to examine whether their quantitative predictions are realistic and whether they generate additional insight into business cycle data that non search models of money cannot generate on the first question our results suggest that precautionary demand for money plays a substantial role in accounting for business cycle behavior of velocity of money and other nominal variables such as inflation and nominal interest rates on the second question our preliminary results indicate that the search frictions generate discernible though small quantitative effects helping the model account for relevant properties of the data but not very significantly the biggest quantitative potential for search frictions in this setting is in the dynamic implications they generate for inventories and markups in the retail sector assessment of this potential is in progress

new labour and work time regulation a marxian analysis of the uk economy this paper examines the impact of work time regulation introduced by the uk s new labour governments 1997 to 2010 in doing so we return to marx s hypotheses regarding the length of the working day these include the arguments that class conflict over the length of the working day is inherently distributional in a surplus value sense and that workers often display a preference for reduced hours even with a proportionate reduction in pay our quantitative marxist methodology provides a way of assessing the pattern of surplus value before and during the period of office of the new labour governments and the distributional effects of regulation the impact of such regulations on workers preferences are examined through an investigation of british household panel survey data although many have been sceptical concerning the record of the last labour governments policies such as the working time regulations 1998 and the work life balance campaign 2000 are found to have been noteworthy innovations in the labour market this is all the more important given recent moves by the successor government to weaken work time regulation our results suggest the impact of these policy initiatives was broadly favourable though the effect on men and women was different

general equilibrium with nonconvexities and money in a general equilibrium economy with nonconvexities there are sunspot equilibria with good welfare properties sunspots can ameliorate the effects of the nonconvexities for these economies we show that agents act as if they have quasi linear utility functions we use this result to construct a new model of monetary exchange along the lines of lagos and wright where trade occurs in both centralized and decentralized markets but instead of quasi linear preferences we assume general preferences but with indivisible labor this suggests that modern monetary theory is more robust than one might have thought it also constitutes progress on the classic problem of integrating monetary economics and general equilibrium theory

dollarization and currency exchange abstract we use a dual currency money search model to study dollarization agents hold portfolios consisting of two currencies one of which is risky we use numerical methods to solve for the steady state distributions of currency portfolios transaction patterns and value functions as risk increases agents increasingly use the safe currency as a medium of exchange dollarization occurs furthermore the safe currency trades for multiple units of the risky currency this type of currency exchange and the corresponding nominal exchange rate are often observed in black market or unofficial currency exchange markets in developing countries due to decentralized trading a distribution of exchange rates arises whose mean and variance change in predictable ways when currency risk increases

equilibrium using credit or money with indivisible goods this note studies the trade of indivisible goods using credit or money in a frictional market we show how indivisibility matters for monetary equilibrium under different assumptions about price determination bargaining generates a price and allocation that are independent of the nominal interest or inflation rate over some range this is not the case with price posting and directed search in either case we provide conditions the nominal rate cannot be too high under which stationary monetary equilibrium exists and we show it is unique or generically unique

the distribution of money balances and the nonneutrality of money recent monetary models with explicit microfoundations are made tractable by assuming that agents have access to centralized markets after one round of decentralized trade given quasi linear preferences this makes the distribution of money degenerate which keeps the models simple but precludes the discussion of distributional effects of monetary policy we generalize these models by assuming two rounds of trade before agents can readjust their money holdings to study a range of new distributional effects analytically we show that unexpected symmetric lump sum money injections may increase short run output and welfare whereas asymmetric injections may increase long run output and welfare

on the coexistence of money and higher return assets and its social role this paper adopts mechanism design to investigate the coexistence of at money and higherreturn assets we consider an economy with pairwise meetings where at money and riskfree capital compete as means of payment as in lagos and rocheteau 2008 the trading mechanism in pairwise meetings is chosen among all individually rational renegotiation proof mechanisms to maximize society s welfare we show that in any stationary monetary equilibrium capital commands a higher rate of return than at money

inflation output and welfare this paper studies the effects of anticipated inflation on aggregate output and welfare within a search theoretic framework we allow money holders to choose the intensities with which they search for trading partners so inflation affects the frequency of trade as well as the quantity of output produced in each trade we consider the standard pricing mechanism for search models i e ex post bargaining as well as a notion of competitive pricing if prices are bargained over the equilibrium is generically inefficient and an increase in inflation reduces buyers search intensities output and welfare if prices are posted and buyers can direct their search search intensities are increasing with inflation for low inflation rates and decreasing for high inflation rates the friedman rule achieves the first best allocation and inflation always reduces welfare even though it can have a positive effect on output for low inflation rates

sticky prices a new monetarist approach why do some sellers set nominal prices that apparently do not respond to changes in the aggregate price level in many models prices are sticky by assumption here it is a result we use search theory with two consequences prices are set in dollars since money is the medium of exchange and equilibrium implies a nondegenerate price distribution when the money supply increases some sellers may keep prices constant earning less per unit but making it up on volume so profit stays constant the calibrated model matches price change data well but in contrast to typical sticky price models money is neutral jel e52 e31 e42

a divisible search model of fiat money this paper extends the kiyotaki wright search model of fiat money to allow for divisible money and goods the extension allows me to examine the standard issues in monetary economics such as the neutrality and superneutrality of money by severing the artificial link in the kiyotaki wright model between the money supply and the number of money holders it is shown that money is neutral but not superneutral money growth generates a trading opportunity effect it changes the fraction of different agents in the economy and hence changes the probability with which agents have a successful match in addition money growth has a negative effect on the real money balance that is familiar in walrasian monetary models the balance of the two effects can imply a positive optimal money growth rate

optimal money creation in pure currency economies a conjecture in a pure currency economy money is the only durable object and people have private histories in such economies taxation is not feasible and in some of them trade is enhanced through the use of money for economies of that kind in which a nondegenerate distribution of money part of the state of the economy affects trades and real outcomes and in which trades affect the state at the next date the conjecture is that there are transfer schemes financed by money creation that improve ex ante representative agent welfare relative to what can be achieved holding the stock of money fixed jel codes e52 e58 copyright 2014 oxford university press

a search model of unemployment and inflation in this paper i introduce money in the standard labor matching model mortensen and pissarides 1999 pissarides 2000 a double coincidence problemmakes fiat money necessary as a medium of exchange in the long run a rise inthe rate of money growth leads to higher inflation and higher unemployment sothe long run phillips curve is not vertical the optimal monetary growth ratedecreases with the workers bargaining power the level of unemploymentbenefits and the payroll tax rate

search inflation and capital accumulation abstract this paper constructs a model to integrate the search monetary theory into a neoclassical growth model with divisible goods and money the model is used to examine the relationship between money growth and capital accumulation the framework uncovers a distinct extensive effect that an increase in the money growth rate increases the frequency of successful trades by increasing the number of agents in the market this positive extensive effect on the number of trades can dominate the conventional negative intensive effects of money growth on individuals labor input and real money balance in which case increasing the money growth rate increases aggregate capital and output

money and the gains from trade this article studies the role of money in environments where in each meeting there is a double coincidence of real wants traders who meet at random finance their purchases through current production the sale of divisible money or both it is shown that in the absence of valued money if traders have asymmetric tastes for each other s good they produce and exchange socially inefficient quantities with valued money however traders exchange efficient quantities if the asymmetry of tastes is not too large it is shown that the gains from trade in the monetary economy are strictly greater than those in the corresponding barter economy that the friedman rule holds and that the allocation of resources in the monetary economy converges to the allocation in the barter economy as the growth rate of the money supply is increased

efficiency improvement from restricting the liquidity of nominal bonds abstract in a monetary search model with nominal bonds agents face matching taste shocks but they cannot insure borrow or trade against such shocks a government imposes a legal restriction that prohibits bonds from being used to buy a subset of goods i show that this legal restriction can increase the society s welfare in contrast to the literature this efficiency role persists in the steady state and even when the households cannot trade assets after receiving the shocks moreover it can exist when the friedman rule is available and when the restriction is only obeyed by government agents

modelling energy spot prices empirical evidence from nymex this paper investigates the behaviour of spot prices in eight energy markets that trade futures contracts on nymex we consider two types of models a mean reverting model and a spike model with mean reversion that incorporates two different speeds of mean reversion one for the fast mean reverting behaviour of prices after a jump occurs and another for the slower mean reversion rate of the diffusive part of the model we also extend these models to incorporate time varying volatility in their specification modelled as a garch and an egarch process we compare the relative goodness of fit of the different modelling variations both in sample using monte carlo simulations as well as out of sample in a value at risk var setting our results indicate the presence of a leverage effect for wti heating oil and heating oil wti crack spread whereas for the remaining energy markets we find the presence of an inverse leverage effect also the addition of the egarch specification for the volatility process improves both the in sample fit as well as the out of sample var performance for most energy markets that we examine

generalized search theoretic models of monetary exchange abstract virtually all simple search models of money assume agents with money cannot produce and so everyone has either 0 or 1 units of money in steady state we alternatively assume agents can always produce and simply restrict money inventories to 0 or 1 this seems better for many issues for example in the standard model it is difficult to interpret increases in the money supply because increasing the fraction of agents holding money decreases the economy s productive capacity our model avoids these problems and thus delivers more natural and simpler implications in many contexts we compare results on existence multiplicity and welfare across models

introduction to the symposium issue on money and liquidity abstract this symposium on money and liquidity follows a conference held in santa barbara in august 2014 under the sponsorship of the laboratory for aggregate economics and finance at ucsb the conference was a celebration of the twenty fifth anniversary of the publication of kiyotaki and wright s on money as a medium of exchange this symposium contains a selection of the papers presented at the conference and a selection of regular submissions that fit the theme all papers were peer reviewed according to the usual jet procedures

compensation for quality difference in a search model of money we study an economy in which there is always double coincidence of wants agents have perfect information about qualities of goods and there are no transaction costs the hold up problem arises because efforts invested in improving quality prior to search may not be compensated in the market situations in which barter fails to motivate quality improvement are identified with money however the extra effort in quality improvement will be compensated when high quality good producers trade with agents holding both the low quality good and money injection of money can induce almost all agents to produce the high quality good

optimal monetary policy what we know and what we don t know in this article i examine the current state of knowledge about optimal monetary policy i distinguish between two literatures basic and applied the basic literature is explicit about the frictions that generate a positive value for money and make it socially beneficial the applied literature is not i describe the recent lessons about monetary policy that we have learned from each literature and discuss how the two distinct approaches may be usefully combined

inflation and unemployment in general equilibrium when labor is indivisible there exist ecient outcomes with some agents randomly unemployed rogerson 1988 we integrate this idea into the modern theory of monetary exchange where some trade occurs in centralized markets and some in decentralized markets as in lagos and wright 2006 this delivers a general equilibrium model of unemployment and money with explicit microeconomic foundations we show the implied relation between inflation and unemployment can be positive or negative depending on simple preference conditions our phillips curve provides a long run exploitable trade o for monetary policy it turns out however that the optimal policy is the friedman rule

nonneutrality of money in dispersion hume revisited for a class of standard and widely used preferences a one shot money injection in a standard matching model can induce a significant and persistent output response by dispersing the distribution of wealth decentralized trade matters for both persistence and significance in the presence of government bonds the injection has a liquidity effect and the inflation rate right following the injection may be below the steady state rate level

a fundamental theory of exchange rates and direct currency trades in this paper we construct a two country search model to determine the nominal exchange rate between two fiat monies our model allows agents to use any currency to trade for goods in all countries however search frictions restrict agents opportunities for instantaneous arbitrage and hence make the nominal exchange rate determinate the nominal exchange rate depends on the two countries economic fundamentals including the stocks and growth rates of the two monies direct exchanges between currencies are essential and they imply a nominal exchange rate that is different from the relative price between the two currencies in the goods markets there are persistent violations of the law of one price and purchasing power parity in equilibrium despite the fact that prices are perfectly flexible and all goods are tradeable between countries nominal and real exchange rates can move together in the steady state in response to money growth shocks

viewpoint a microfoundation of monetary economics in this lecture i explain what the microfoundations of money are about and why they are necessary for monetary economics then i review recent developments of a particular microfoundation of money commonly known as the search theory of money finally i outline some unresolved issues dans cette presentation l auteur explique ce que sont les microfondations de la monnaie et pourquoi elles sont necessaires a l economie monetaire ensuite il passe en revue certains developpements recents d une microfondation particuliere de la monnaie connue sous le nom de theorie de la recherche de la monnaie enfin l auteur fait le tour d un ensemble de problemes qui restent sans solution pour le moment

currency areas and monetary coordination we integrate a monetary search model into open economy macro to analyze the gains from coordinating on inflation search frictions and local congestion lead to a determinate exchange rate between two currencies relative prices deviate from the law of one price because the deviations depend on the cross country differential in money growth each country is tempted to inflate to exploit the deviations policy coordination reduces inflation and improves welfare for all countries in contrast to traditional models the gains from coordination continue to exist even after each country optimally sets a direct tax on the foreign use of the country s currency

inflation and productive activity in a multiple matching model of money abstract this paper investigates the relationship between money growth inflation and productive activity in a dynamic general equilibrium multiple matching framework where trade frictions are manifested by limited consumption variety productive activity and matching in the goods market are endogenized by a time allocation decision of work and search effort we find that a high degree of complementarity between participation in the labor and goods markets creates a channel by which inflation can positively influence production and output this feature arises when household preferences for consumption variety is sufficiently large and it can also lead to the multiplicity of monetary equilibria

search for a monetary propagation mechanism abstract this paper examines a monetary propagation mechanism in an economy where exchanges in goods and labor markets involve costly search it is shown that an increase in the money growth rate increases steady state employment and output when the money growth rate is low but reduces steady state employment and output when the money growth rate is already high the model produces persistent hump shaped responses in employment and output to money growth shocks even when the shocks have no persistence the model also generates desirable features in job vacancy sales inventory and the velocity of money all these features emerge here in an economy with perfectly flexible prices and wages journal of economic literatureclassification numbers e40 e30

liquidity quality production cost and welfare in a search model of money this paper examines a search model of money with divisible commodities of high and low quality while keeping the assumptions of indivisible money and unit inventory constraint with no direct barter and a higher fixed cost of producing high relative to low quality an increase in the money stock encourages the production of high quality output by trading off the larger trading opportunities against the significance of higher fixed cost as long as the fixed cost differential between high and low quality is sufficiently small relative to the utility gain from high quality consumption the quality improvement outweighs the negative effect of higher money stocks on aggregate production and hence implies higher welfare the most important function of money is its role as a medium of exchange wicksell 1906 1967 p 17 defined a general medium of exchange to be an object which is habitually and without hesitation taken by anybody in exchange for any commodity the main challenge facing monetary theory is to construct a model which permits the object s role in exchange to be endogenous 1 kiyotaki and wright 1991 1993 seems to be the first fully coherent model which specifies the environment and equilibrium concept in a way that does not force at the outset the assumption on which objects will play a special role in trade the kiyotaki wright model departs from the physical environment of the standard general equilibrium model through the assumption that trading histories are private information the medium of exchange role of money is obtained as an outcome of nash equilibrium together with some bargaining rule in pairwise random meetings however the standard kiyotaki wright model yields an undesirable welfare implication that an increase in the money stock eventually leads to a decrease in welfare because of a decrease in the number of agents who get to consume in a given period the same welfare property is obtained in the models with divisible commodities such as trejos and wright 1995 and shi 1995 2 this property has been regarded as the outcome of the original kiyotaki wright assumptions of indivisible money and the inventory constraint agents can only carry one object either commodity or money at a time despite simplifying the distribution of money holdings these assumptions impose the restriction that agents are not allowed to produce while they hold money

frictional goods markets theory and applications we analyse dynamic general equilibrium models with more or less directed search by informed buyers and random search by uninformed buyers this nests existing specifications and generates new insights a quantitative application concerns the welfare cost of inflation which is known to be quite high with pure random search and low with pure directed search our calibration implies the impact of inflation is fairly low in part because in addition to the usual costs it provides benefits by more heavily taxing high price sellers that inefficiently profit from exploiting the uninformed other applications analyse analytically and numerically changes in credit conditions and information

consumer search price dispersion and international relative price fluctuations this article develops a model of consumer search consistent with the evidence of substantial price dispersion and time spent shopping within countries to study international deviations from the law of one price lop and relative price fluctuations search frictions lead firms to price discriminate across markets based on the opportunity cost of search which depends on the local wage with productivity and taste shocks estimated from the data deviations from the lop are as volatile and persistent as in the data fluctuations in relative wages real exchange rates and the terms of trade are also consistent with the data

monetary policy in a channel system abstract channel systems for conducting monetary policy are becoming increasingly popular despite its popularity the consequences of implementing policy with a channel system are not well understood we develop a general equilibrium framework of a channel system and study the optimal policy a novel aspect of the channel system is that a central bank can tighten or loosen its policy without changing its policy rate this policy instrument has so far been overlooked by a large body of the literature on the optimal design of interest rate rules

uncertainty inflation and welfare this paper studies the welfare costs and the redistributive effects of inflation in the presence of idiosyncratic liquidity risk in a microfounded search theoretical monetary model we calibrate the model to match the empirical aggregate money demand and the distribution of money holdings across households and study the effects of inflation under the implied degree of market incompleteness we show that in the presence of imperfect insurance the estimated long run welfare costs of inflation are on average 40 to 55 smaller compared to a complete markets representative agent economy and that inflation induces important redistributive effects across households

outside versus inside bonds a modigliani miller type result for liquidity constrained economies when agents are liquidity constrained two options exist sell assets or borrow we compare the allocations arising in two economies in one agents can sell government outside bonds and in the other they can borrow by issuing inside bonds all transactions are voluntary implying no taxation or forced redemption of private debt we show that any allocation in the economy with inside bonds can be replicated in the economy with outside bonds but that the converse is not true however the optimal policy in each economy makes the allocations equivalent

financial frictions investment delay and asset market interventions we construct a dynamic macro model to incorporate financial frictions and investment delay investment is undertaken by entrepreneurs who face liquidity frictions in the equity market and a collateral constraint in the debt market after calibrating the model to the u s data we quantitatively examine how aggregate activity is affected by a shock to equity liquidity and a shock to entrepreneurs borrowing capacity we then analyze the effectiveness of government interventions in the asset market after such financial shocks in particular we compare the effects of government purchases of private equity and of private debt in the open market in addition we examine how these effects of government interventions depend on the option to delay investment

a unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis search theoretic models of monetary exchange are based on explicit descriptions of the frictions that make money essential however tractable versions of these models typically make strong assumptions that render them ill suited for monetary policy analysis we propose a new framework based on explicit micro foundations within which macro policy can be studied the framework is analytically tractable and easily quantifiable we calibrate the model to standard observations and use it to measure the cost of inflation we find that going from 10 percent to 0 percent inflation is worth between 3 and 5 percent of consumption much higher than previous estimates

a new suggestion for simplifying the theory of money we propose a new search theoretic model of monetary exchange with indivisible assets based on price posting instead of bargaining and incorporating noisy search this yields some familiar results plus a lot more the model admits multiple steady states due to the self referential nature of liquidity it admits cyclic chaotic and stochastic equilibria and compared to bargaining versions the dynamics are more general and have better microfoundations it generates price dispersion with interesting efficiency implications plus sticky prices and rational inattention parametric examples yield closed form solutions based on these results we suggest this should become a benchmark model in monetary economics

search based models of money and finance an integrated approach many applications in monetary economics of search and bargaining theory use shi trejos wright hereafter stw many applications in finance use duffie g rleanu pedersen hereafter dgp these models share several features and both concern liquidity yet they also differ in stw agents use assets as payment instruments when trading goods in dgp they pay with goods or transferable utility when trading assets we integrate the two this clarifies connections between the literatures and generates novel insights several new results are provided for the baseline stw and dgp models while the integrated structure generates even more interesting outcomes including endogenous transactions patterns and belief based dynamics

sticky prices and costly credit we develop a theory of money and credit as competing payment instruments then put it to work in applications agents use cash and credit because the former latter is subject to the inflation tax transaction costs frictions that make the choice of payment method interesting also imply equilibrium price dispersion we derive closed form solutions for money demand and show how to simultaneously account for the price change facts cash credit shares in micro data and money interest correlations in macro data the effects of inflation on welfare price dispersion and markups are discussed as are nonstationary equilibria with dynamics in the price distribution

liquidity business cycles and monetary policy this paper presents a model of monetary economy with dier ences in liquidity across assets our purpose is to study how aggre gate production and asset prices uctuate with shocks to productivity and liquidity in so doing we examine what role government policy might have through open market operations that change the mix of assets held by the private sector we also show that certain apparent anomalies of asset markets are in fact normal features of a monetary economy in which the circulation of money is essential for a better allocation of resources

search money and capital a neoclassical dichotomy recent work has reduced the gap between search based monetary theory and mainstream macroeconomics by incorporating into the search model some centralized markets as well as some decentralized markets where money is essential this paper takes a further step toward this integration by introducing labor capital and neoclassical firms the resulting framework nests a search theoretic monetary model and a standard neoclassical growth model as special cases perhaps surprisingly it also exhibits a dichotomy one can determine the equilibrium path for the value of money independent of the paths of consumption investment and employment in the centralized market

friedman meets hosios efficiency in search models of money this article studies optimal monetary policy in an economy with endogenous search decisions we show that the same frictions that give fiat money a positive value generate an inefficient quantity of goods in each trade and an inefficient number of trades the friedman rule eliminates the first inefficiency and the hosios rule the second a monetary equilibrium attains the social optimum if and only if both rules are satisfied when they cannot be satisfied simultaneously optimal monetary policy achieves only the second best we analyse the conditions under which the second best monetary policy exceeds the friedman rule

foreign aid and illegal immigration abstract we develop a two country model of illegal immigration we analyse the effect of foreign aid on illegal immigration and consider both exogenous and endogenous income repatriation in the former an increase in aid increases illegal immigration if the total amount of aid is small a transfer of resources from border control to aid increases illegal immigration when the total amount of aid is small under endogenous income repatriation aid has no effect on illegal immigration when the preferences of the immigrants and their family members are the same if the preferences are different aid may increase illegal immigration

money search and business cycles monetary models that specify explicit frictions to generate money demand have been developed over the last 20 years and have been used to address many questions in this article i investigate the short run properties of a particular model considering a number of versions based on some modeling choices all versions feature flexible prices i find that in many aspects both real and nominal the model resembles other more reduced form models some variations of the model come closer to matching some key nominal facts than a reduced form model the model also generates counter cyclical markups in line with the data

liquidity provision interest rates and unemployment abstract the effective liquidity supply of the economy the weighted sum of all assets that serve as media of exchange matters for interest rates and unemployment we formalize this idea by adding an over the counter market with collateralized trades to the mortensen pissarides model an increase in public liquidity through a higher supply of real government bonds raises the real interest rate crowding out private liquidity and increasing unemployment if unemployment is inefficiently high keeping liquidity scarce can be socially optimal a liquidity crisis affecting the acceptability of private assets as collateral widens the rate of return difference between private and public liquidity also increasing unemployment