credit constraints and the phenomenon of child labor abstract this paper develops an overlapping generations general equilibrium model where inefficient child labor arises due to credit constraints it derives a positive relationship between inequality in the distribution of income and the incidence of child labor looking at policy implications it shows how trade sanctions against countries using child labor may fail to reduce the incidence of child labor it discusses some alternative policies to reduce the incidence of child labor

effects of economic shocks on children s employment and schooling in brazil abstract this paper uses longitudinal employment survey data to analyze the impact of household economic shocks on the schooling and employment transitions of young people in metropolitan brazil the paper uses data on over 100 000 children ages 10 16 from brazil s monthly employment survey pme from 1982 to 1999 taking advantage of the rotating panels in the pme we compare households in which the male household head becomes unemployed during a four month period with households in which the head is continuously employed probit regressions indicate that an unemployment shock significantly increases the probability that a child enters the labor force drops out of school and fails to advance in school the effects can be large implying increases of as much as 50 in the probability of entering employment for 16 year old girls in contrast shocks occurring after the school year do not have significant effects suggesting that these results are not due to unobserved characteristics of households that experience unemployment shocks the results suggest that some households are not able to absorb short run economic shocks with negative consequences for children

a condition guaranteeing that the nash allocation is walrasian abstract consider the set of net trades attainable by an economic agent when he varies his strategy and all other agents stick to their strategies if all attainable sets for all agents are star shaped with respect to the origin then every pareto efficient nash allocation is walrasian this result bears upon the question whether it is possible to implement redistributive goals without impairing efficiency

returns to work child labor and schooling the income vs price effects abstract this study examines the impact of returns to work for adult labor and child labor on child work and schooling outcomes we propose an empirical strategy that sheds light on the underlying income and price effects specifically we exploit variations in child labor intensity across crops and exogenous changes in crop tariffs following the 1991 indian trade liberalization exploiting pre reform district variations in crop composition we find opposite effects of tariff reductions for adult labor intensive crops and child labor intensive crops while reductions in the returns to adult labor lead to a negative income effect that reduces schooling reductions in the returns to child labor increase schooling due to the countervailing price effect we further document substantial heterogeneity across gender the price effect outweighs the income effect for boys but not for girls using a back of the envelope calculation we estimate the schooling elasticities with respect to returns to adult labor and child labor to be 0 23 and 0 86 respectively

wicksell lindahl and the theory of public goods wicksell s and lindahl s ideas on public goods and decisions are reviewed in light of later developments in the theoretical economics literature i begin by discussing their normative ideals in particular the notion of justness and the sources of the difficulties in reaching them wicksell s and lindahl s ideal states as well as the obstacles that they perceive are compared to more recent views on free riding and on the behavior of elected representatives their views on political bargaining are then related to later concepts in particular to the core of the economy

does child labor decline with improving economic status between 1993 and 1997 child labor in vietnam declined by nearly 30 percent while the country s gdp grew by nearly 9 percent per year on average using a simple nonparametric decomposition i investigate the relationship between improvements in per capita expenditure and child labor with a panel data set that spans this episode of growth in vietnam improvements in per capita expenditure can explain 80 percent of the decline in child labor that occurs in households whose expenditures improve enough to move out of poverty this finding suggests a previously undocumented role for economic growth in the amelioration of child labor

financial illiteracy and pension contributions a field experiment on compound interest in china i conduct a field experiment to study the relationship between peoples misunderstanding of compound interest and their pension contributions in rural china i find that explaining the concept of compound interest to subjects increased pension contributions by roughly 40 the treatment effect is larger for those who underestimate compound interest than for those who overestimate compound interest moreover financial education enables households to partially correct their misunderstanding of compound interest i structurally estimate the level of misunderstanding of compound interest and conduct a counterfactual welfare analysis lifetime utility increases by about 10 if subjects misunderstanding of compound interest is eliminated authors have furnished an internet appendix which is available on the oxford university press web site next to the link to the final published paper online

cointegration analysis of german and british tourism demand for greece abstract germany and great britain are traditionally two of the most important sources of tourism for greece the purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in the long run demand for tourism to greece by these two countries in order to explain the demand for tourism we are using a number of leading macroeconomic variables including income in origin countries germany and great britain tourism prices in greece and transportation cost and exchanges rates between the three countries annual data from the three countries covering the period from 1960 to 2000 are employed augmented dickey fuller test for unit root is examined in the univariate framework and johansen s maximum likelihood procedure is used to test the cointegration method and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors of var model error correction models are estimated to explain german and british demand for tourism to greece

consumer response to the reagan tax cuts abstract this paper uses micro data from the consumer expenditure survey to estimate the response of household consumption to the second and third phases of the reagan tax cuts since these phases were pre announced they allow for an unusually clean test of the canonical life cycle permanent income model consumption is found to be excessively sensitive to the tax cuts counter to the model liquidity constraints and other standard explanations do not appear to explain this excess sensitivity the consumption response is larger than previously estimated for tax refunds and more concentrated in nondurables these differences have important implications for the structure of tax changes in particular for choosing between varying withholding rates versus varying lumpy final tax payments and refunds

forecasting international tourist flows to australia a comparison between the direct and indirect methods this paper compares between the use of direct and indirect forecasting of international tourist flows to australia the indirect method is applicable when time series is a contemporaneous aggregate of others which is often the case for tourist flows time series in this case forecasts are generated by aggregating those of the component variables of aggregation an alternative is the direct method whereby forecasts are generated directly from the aggregated variable this paper uses seasonal arima models regression based models and harvey s structural time series models to compare the accuracy of the two forecasting methods we find evidence strongly in favour of the indirect method using monthly time series for international tourist arrivals to australia

equilibria and efficiency in the fixprice setting abstract the aim of this paper is to study efficiency under fixed price constraints and to define an equilibrium concept that extends to some degree the standard welfare analysis of general equilibrium theory this paper contains a description of the fixprice setting a study of the set of relatively pareto efficient allocations a definition of coupon equilibria the proof of their existence and an investigation into the structure of the set of coupon equilibria and of the set of economies admitting efficient coupon equilibria

child labor and agricultural shocks this paper examines the relationship between household income shocks and child labor in particular we investigate the extent to which transitory income shocks lead to increases in child labor and whether household asset holdings mitigate the effects of these shocks using data from a household panel survey in tanzania we find that both relationships are significant we investigate mechanisms that could account for these results including buffer stocks and borrowing

a defense of compulsive measures against child labor abstract this research characterizes policies likely to trigger the onset of a growth enhancing fertility transition even for an economy with initially a low per capita income the environment considered is one where children s time has an economic value and schooling and child labor are the main competing claims on a child s time using a one parent family overlapping generations model i argue that compulsive measures against child labor are justifiable as an integral part of an intervention that combines incentives and regulations in order to eliminate child labor the analysis highlights fertility and child labor dynamics as shaped by the relative cost of children

the objective demand curve in general equilibrium with price makers objective demand curves in general equilibrium with explicitly modeled price makers have been defined so far in a number of specific cases this paper gives a general definition of such an objective demand curve the associated general equilibrium concept is defined and sufficient existence conditions are given copyright 1987 by royal economic society

monopolistic quantity rationing in this paper we address the question of whether a price setting monopolist can improve his welfare by imposing quantity constraints on buyers we show first that if all buyers are identical quantity rations are not useful for the monopolist we then show by means of an example that if buyers are diverse quantity rations may be desirable it is shown that if there are only two commodities the only constraint that may be useful to the monopolist is a zero constraint on one of the two commodities an example shows that this property does not hold for more than two commodities

conditional cash transfers schooling and child labor micro simulating brazil s bolsa escola program a growing number of developing economies are providing cash transfers to poor people that require certain behaviors on their part such as attending school or regularly visiting health care facilities a simple ex ante methodology is proposed for evaluating such programs and used to assess the bolsa escola program in brazil the results suggest that about 60 percent of poor 10 to 15 year olds not in school enroll in response to the program the program reduces the incidence of poverty by only a little more than one percentage point however and the gini coefficient falls just half a point results are better for measures more sensitive to the bottom of the distribution but the effect is never large

forecasting u s tourist arrivals using optimal singular spectrum analysis this study examines the potential advantages of using singular spectrum analysis ssa for forecasting tourism demand to do this it examines the performance of ssa forecasts using monthly data for tourist arrivals into the unites states over the period 1996 to 2012 the ssa forecasts are compared to those from a range of other forecasting approaches previously used to forecast tourism demand these include arima exponential smoothing and neural networks the results presented show that the ssa approach produces forecasts which perform statistically significantly better than the alternative methods in forecasting total tourist arrivals into the u s forecasts using the ssa approach are also shown to offer a significantly better forecasting performance for arrivals into the u s from individual source countries of the alternative forecasting approaches exponential smoothing and feed forward neural networks in particular were found to perform poorly the key conclusion is that singular spectrum analysis ssa offers significant advantages in forecasting tourist arrivals into the us and is worthy of consideration for other forecasting studies of tourism demand

the economics of child labor if child labor as a mass phenomenon occurs not because of parental selfishness but because of the parents concern for the household s survival the popular argument for banning child labor loses much of its force however this assumption about parental decision making coupled with the assumption of substitutability in production between child and adult labor could result in multiple equilibria in the labor market with one equilibrium where children work and another where adult wage is high and children do not work the paper establishes this result and discusses its policy implications copyright 1998 by american economic association

child labor and schooling responses to anticipated income in south africa abstract forward looking unconstrained households make child labor and schooling decisions considering their permanent income and weighing the relative returns to child time in various potential activities the timing of anticipated changes in income should have no effect on child labor and schooling in a setting where households can borrow against permanent income however this study documents large increases in schooling attendance and declines in total hours worked when black south african families become eligible for fully anticipatable social pension income as an explanation the data are most consistent with liquidity constraints for black elder males forcing rural families into less schooling for boys than they would choose absent the constraint perhaps because of schooling costs

family labor supply and the timing of cash transfers evidence from the earned income tax credit abstract this paper exploits the unique disbursement timing and benefit rules of the earned income tax credit eitc to provide new evidence on how families adjust their labor supply in response to receiving anticipated cash transfers i find that income seasonality caused by eitc receipt leads to changes in the intra year labor supply patterns of married women on average receiving a 1 000 payment significantly reduces the proportion of married women who work by 1 3 percentage points in the month when the eitc is received additionally this labor supply response is mainly driven by those who are secondary earners or liquidity constrained

ambiguities in the sign of excess effective demand by firms can we state that at a given benassy fixprice allocation z there is say excess effective demand for a commodity it turns out that in productive economies there may be ambiguities in the sign of excess effective demand different effective demand vectors with different signs may be compatible with z we prove a no ambiguity exists if intermediate goods are ruled out and if all firms in the long side of a market perceive binding constraints b in any case one can always select a vector of effective demands yielding minimal sets of buyer s and seller s markets

a general equilibrium macro model with wage bargaining in a general equilibrium macro model with wage bargaining agents are divided into capitalists and workers the markets for produced goods and money are competitive but the wage rate is determined by negotiation between an employers union and a trade union unions are supposed to be long sighted and care about members utilities in stationary states nash bargaining equilibria are characterized by unemployment for certain parameter values this unemployment is persistent in the sense that it appears in an equilibrium with endogenous prices a neutrality result for monetary policy is also shown

tourism demand modelling and forecasting a review of recent research abstract this paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000 one of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles in addition to the most popular time series and econometric models a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature however as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned the study shows that there is no single model that consistently outperforms other models in all situations furthermore this study identifies some new research directions which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches tourism cycles and seasonality analysis events impact assessment and risk forecasting

voluntariness and efficiency in the provision of public goods abstract this paper presents a characterization of lindahl allocations which makes no reference to personalized prices lindahl equilibria are characterized here by two conditions pareto efficiency and a voluntariness condition voluntariness requires that no consumer may benefit from a reduction in his contribution if this means that the vector of public goods must be reduced in the same proportion the intersection of the large set of voluntary allocations and that of efficient ones turns out to be under differentiability the set of lindahl allocations

the reaction of household consumption to predictable changes in social security taxes the key implication of rational expectations and the basic life cycle permanent income hypothesis that predictable changes in income have no effect on the growth rate of consumption expenditures is examined this implication is important for understanding the effectiveness and optimal timing of fiscal policy the causes and propagation of business cycles and the effects of income fluctuations on the growth rate of the economy using household level consumption data from the consumer expenditure survey whether expenditures on nondurable goods increase contemporaneously with predictable changes in social security tax withholding is tested it is found that households do change their consumption expenditures in response to the predictable fluctuations in income induced by the social security tax system

keynesian unemployment as a nash equilibrium with endogenous wage price setting an example abstract a simple 3 good 1 consumer 1 firm model of fixed price quantity constrained equilibrium is developed a game is then defined on the set of globally unique equilibria the consumer sets the money wage the firm sets the money price of output money is numeraire nash solutions of the game exist and may involve keynesian unemployment but never involve classical unemployment or repressed inflation

is child labor inefficient we build a model of child labor and study its implications for welfare we assume that there is a trade off between child labor and the accumulation of human capital even if parents are altruistic and child labor is socially inefficient it may arise in equilibrium because parents fail to fully internalize its negative effects this occurs when bequests are zero or when capital markets are imperfect we also study the effects of a simple ban on child labor and derive conditions under which it may be pareto improving in general equilibrium we show that the implications of child labor for fertility are ambiguous

borrowing constraints and progress through school evidence from peru this paper investigates the effect of borrowing constraints on the timing of human capital investment in a developing country by looking at how quickly children with different family backgrounds progress through the primary school system in peru the main findings are that children start withdrawing from school earlier as indicated by repetition of grades in households with lower income and durable good holdings and when children are more closely spaced behavior also differs as predicted between children from households that appear to be borrowing constrained and those that appear unconstrained copyright 1994 by mit press

consumption and income seasonality in thailand many households in developing countries rely on seasonal agriculture for their incomes this paper investigates whether household consumption expenditure tracks income across seasons using data from thailand i contrast the seasonal consumption patterns of households with different seasonal income patterns and estimate the responsiveness of seasonal consumption to seasonal income i find little evidence that consumption tracks income over the course of the year the findings suggest that observed seasonal consumption patterns are the result of seasonal variations in preferences or prices common to all households rather than an inability of households to use savings behavior to smooth consumption

large cash transfers to the elderly in south africa we examine the social pension in south africa where large cash sums about twice the median per capita income of african households are paid to people qualified by age but irrespective of previous contributions we present the history of the scheme and use a 1993 nationally representative survey to investigate the redistributive consequences of the transfers documenting who receive the pensions their levels of living and those of their families we also look at behavioural effects particularly the effects of the cash receipts on the allocation of income to food schooling transfers and savings in south africa a large social pension about twice the median per capita income of african households is paid in cash to people qualified by age irrespective of previous contributions we present the history of the scheme and explain how such large transfers could come about in an economy in which the recipients were not only politically weak but without any political representation whatsoever we then use a 1993 nationally representative survey to investigate the redistributive consequences of the transfers documenting who receive the pensions their levels of living and those of their families we also look at behavioural effects particularly the effects of the cash receipts on the allocation of income to food schooling transfers and savings the pressing policy issue for south africans is whether it makes sense to target seven billion rand nearly 2 billion of social expenditure through the current pension schemes our analysis contributes to the discussion by documenting the redistributive and behavioural effects of the transfers we find that at least as far as immediate incidence is concerned and without allowance for behavioural effects the social pension is an effective tool of redistribution and that the households it reaches are predominantly poor because so many of the elderly among south africa s african population live with children the social pension is also effective in putting money into house

a remark on conjectural equilibria the notion of a conjectural equilibrium was introduced by hahn 1978 the underlying idea is to explain why prices may not change in a situation where markets do not clear and rationing occurs in a conjectural equilibrium prices are rigid because it is not in the interest of agents to change them more precisely agents conjecture prices at which they can achieve a trade beyond the given quantity constraints such that it is better for them to trade at the observed market prices within the constraints therefore the question of whether an allocation for given prices and quantity constraints is a conjectural equilibrium depends crucially on the agents conjectures in this situation by allowing arbitrary conjectures many such equilibria will exist as has already been claimed by hahn 1977 a 1977b and 1978 in this note it is shown that there are as many conjectural equilibria as there exist fixed price equilibria which satisfy the condition of voluntary exchange only to be more specific we prove that any conjectural equilibrium is a fixed price equilibrium and that for a given economy there are conjectures such that any fixed price equilibrium is a conjectural equilibrium in other words the kind of endogenous price setting described in hahn s model turns out to be equivalent to the fix price approach in the sense that both lead to the same allocations in the economy the result confirms the statement in drazen 1980 that by allowing arbitrary conjectures only one exogenous variable prices has been replaced by another conjectures

a management orientated approach to combination forecasting of tourism demand abstract volatility exponential smoothing regression and naive 2 models are considered singly and in combination in terms of forecasting demand for international tourism these models generate accurate predictions of tourism flows but their prime utility is when combined with other models usually models are combined by means of purely statistical criteria we show that goal programming gp offers an alternative flexible approach to model combination gp offers planners a practical solution to tourism forecasting problems since the method is more adaptable than conventional minimisation of prediction error by permitting practitioners to prioritise a series of management related goals forecasters can focus on longer and short term goals minimising forecast under and over estimation and or concentrate on prediction errors in tourism flows at various times of the year

household income as a determinant of child labor and school enrollment in brazil evidence from a social security reform abstractthis article studies the effects of household income on labor participation and school enrollment of children aged 10 14 in brazil using a social security reform as a source of exogenous variation in household income i find that increased benefits are associated with increases in school enrollment for girls as well as a smaller reduction in their labor participation but i find no effects for boys i also uncover evidence that the gender of the benefit receiver matters for girls labor variables only benefits received by females reduce girls work

rational fix price dynamics abstract we study a macroeconomic model where stabilization problems arise as the result of a dynamic game of income distribution between capitalists and workers the two agents control the supply sides of the goods and labor markets respectively using price changes as strategic variables and a static fix price model with money labor and one macro commodity to correctly predict the behaviour of the economy at each instant of time the resulting medium run price dynamics is consistent with major stylized facts on business cycles it accounts for an empirical regularity that has been left unexplained by other models and suggests a new relationship between the functional income distribution and the economy s sensitivity to shocks

labor coercion and the accumulation of human capital abstract this paper examines the effect of labor coercion on human capital accumulation we use micro data from puerto rico where unskilled laborers were forced to work for landowners during 1849 1874 using variation in municipality level suitability for coffee cultivation and international coffee prices we estimate the response of schooling to exogenous increases in relative demand for unskilled labor in regimes with and without forced labor during the coercive regime increased coffee prices had no effect on individuals literacy rates in coffee growing regions following the abolition of forced labor in 1874 similar changes in coffee prices reduced literacy rates by 12 consistent with a diminished skill premium in the free labor market regime relative to the coercive period

do private transfers displace the benefits of public transfers evidence from south africa abstract this paper investigates whether government transfer programs displace or crowd out private support focusing on a large increase in state old age pensions in south africa using data spanning the period of the expansion we find that each rand of public pension income to the elderly leads to a 0 25 0 30 rand reduction in private transfers from children living away from home however despite the large increase in income there were no significant changes in migration labor supply or household composition we also show that evaluations of the distributional effects of the pension are overstated when crowding out is ignored

undominated prices in the three good model abstract any movement away from walrasian prices will make somebody worse off we ask which other prices share this property the paper characterizes the set of such prices called undominated prices for the three good economy output labor and a nonproduced good that is now well known from the work of barro grossman benassy and malinvaud we consider two groups of consumers workers and shareholders we show that under some conditions there exist prices and wages that generate unemployment and are undominated this requires that a workers be poorly endowed with the nonproduced good b there be little substitution in consumption between the produced and the nonproduced good and c the market for the produced good be balanced i e prices equal marginal costs

undominated wage rates in a unionized overlapping generations economy abstract an overlapping generations macro model where consumers are divided into workers and capitalists is analysed in each period the wage rate is negotiated between an employers union and a trade union other prices adjust competitively the solution concept used is cooperative the wage rate chosen by unions should be undominated i e there must not exist another wage rate leading to higher utilities for both workers and capitalists the resulting one period equilibria relative pareto optima rpo and also stationary equilibria stationary relative pareto optima srpo are analysed results are that full employment s rpo always exist and in some economies unemployment s rpo also exist sufficient conditions for the latter to be the case are stated and the existence of economies fulfilling these conditions is demonstrated

imperfect competition and fixprice equilibria under consumer aggregation and net substitutes the general question posed here and in a companion paper is under what conditions do models of imperfect competition generate equilibria which are also fixprice equilibria answers to this question are provided for the cournot walras general equilibrium model originated by gabszewicz and vial 1972 and the model of a quantity constraining monopolist due to bohm et al 1983 whereas our earlier paper derived results for other models from gross substitute complement assumptions here we also offer results based on net substitute complement assumptions plus appropriate aggregation of consumers this note thus extends the earlier paper by analyzing different models using different techniques the net substitute complement classification used is the inverse net or hicksian q classification described in section ii for the sake of brevity the discussion of the models in sections iii and iv restricts attention to equilibria where price and consumption vectors are strictly positive notation and definitions are those of the earlier paper cf madden and silvestre 1991 section ii

child health and household resources in south africa evidence from the old age pension program this paper presents nonparametric evidence on the effects of the expansion of the old age pension program in south africa on child health did this increase in household resources improve child health and nutrition does the gender of the recipient of the pension affect its impact the answers to these questions have very important policy implications there is evidence that inadequate nutrition during childhood and even in utero affects long term physical development as well as the development of cognitive skills this in turn affects productivity later in life see partha dasgupta 1993 john strauss and duncan thomas 1998 t paul schultz 1999 in the united states the evidence suggests that monetary transfers to the poor have very little impact on child welfare janet currie 1995 susan mayer 1997 however the effects of parental income and monetary transfers on child outcomes are likely to be of greater magnitude among poor households in developing countries the south african pension program provides an unusual opportunity to evaluate the possible effects of such a monetary transfer this paper exploits the rapid increase in the coverage and benefits of the old age pension program in south africa which took place in the early 1990 s anne case and angus deaton 1998 at the end of the apartheid era the government committed to achieving parity of benefits and eligibility requirements between whites and africans this was achieved mostly by increasing the benefits received by the africans in 1993 80 percent of african women above age 60 and 77 percent of african men above 65 received the pension the maximum benefit of 370 rands per month aproximately 3 per day was equal to half of the minimum wage and about twice the median income per capita in rural areas due to living arrangements inherited from the apartheid era close to onethird of african children under the age of 5 currently live with a pension recipient children who live with a pension recipient tend to come from relatively disadvantaged backgrounds as a consequence they tend to be smaller than other children their age to estimate the effect of receiving a pension on the anthropometric status of children this paper exploits the fact that height reflects accumulated investments in child nutrition the larger the proportion of her life during which a child is well nourished the taller she will be given her age due to the expansion of the program in the early 1990 s individuals of qualified age became more likely to receive a pension and the benefits became substantially larger thus children born after the expansion of the program are more likely to have spent a larger fraction of their lives wellnourished if they live with a pension recipient to the extent that the pension resulted in improved nutrition in this paper i present nonparametric evidence of the program s effect on nutrition based on this observation

gold exploitation and socioeconomic outcomes the case of burkina faso abstract in the early 2000s burkina faso launched several legal reforms aimed at increasing gold production this resulted in a gold mining boom making gold the main export product and the main source of economic growth of the country we hypothesize that gold extraction improved population living standards this paper investigates how the gold boom in burkina faso which began in 2007 has affected socioeconomic outcomes we use a simple theoretical model to motivate the testing of several hypotheses regarding these impacts employing a difference in differences strategy as well as panel data models we estimate the impacts using data from household surveys undertaken in 2003 and 2009 and administrative data consistent with our model the results suggest that areas hosting gold extraction have better average living standards in terms of headcount ratios poverty gaps and household expenditures than do areas without gold however the gold boom is also shown to have potentially increased local inequality and child labor in areas with these income gains these results demonstrate the importance of proactive government policy in mitigating negative welfare impacts

life cycle schooling and dynamic selection bias models and evidence for five cohorts of american males this paper examines an empirical regularity found in many societies that family influences on the probability of transiting from one grade level to the next diminish at higher levels of education we examine the statistical model used to establish the empirical regularity and the intuitive behavioral interpretation often used to rationalize it we show that the implicit economic model assumes myopia the intuitive interpretive model is identified only by imposing arbitrary distributional assumptions onto the data we produce an alternative choice theoretic model with fewer parameters that rationalizes the same data and is not based on arbitrary distributional assumptions

effects of public policy on child labor current knowledge gaps and implications for program design many policy instruments can be used to address or affect child labor even if they are implemented to achieve other objectives from a theoretical point of view however the impact of these policies on child labor is undetermined this paper discusses the evidence generated by rigorous evaluations on the impact on child labor of labor market programs conditional and unconditional transfers and microcredit among other social programs and interventions the study finds that although transfer programs generally tend to reduce child labor other policies risk increasing child labor especially if they affect households productive opportunities the findings also point to knowledge gaps that should be addressed in future evaluations while progress has been made over the past decade there is still much to learn about the effects of public policy on the labor participation of many children in developing countries

rearranging the family income support and elderly living arrangements in a low income country this study examines the link between income and living arrangements our identification comes from exploiting a discontinuity in age in the benefit formula for the social pension in south africa in contrast to previous literature we find no association between pension income and elderly independence we do find that potential beneficiaries alter their household structure when they become pension eligible prime working age women depart and the presence of children younger than five and young women of childbearing age increase these shifts in coresidence patterns are consistent with a setting where prime age women have comparative advantage in work away from extended family relative to younger women the additional income from old age support may induce a change in living arrangements to exploit this advantage

voluntary and efficient allocations are walrasian let f be a private ownership economy call an allocation w voluntary for a price vector p if no agent can benefit by trading less at p we prove that under differentiability and interiority if w is voluntary and pareto efficient it is a competitive equilibrium for w perhaps surprisingly production economies where some agents receive profit income require a stronger voluntariness condition than the one sufficient for exchange economies the stronger condition singles out a commodity as a medium of exchange

household choices of child labor and schooling a simple model with application to brazil this paper argues that conflicting results from previous literature related to the effect of economic conditions on child labor derive from different income and substitution effects implicit in different types of income variation we use agricultural shocks to local economic activity in brazil coffee production to distinguish between increases in household income and increases in the opportunity cost of time results show that higher household wealth is associated with lower child labor and higher schooling nevertheless temporary increases in local economic activity are associated with higher child labor and lower schooling particularly for children with poor economic backgrounds

public policy and extended families evidence from pensions in south africa how are resources allocated within extended families in developing economies this question is investigated using a unique social experiment the south african pension program under that program the elderly receive a cash transfer equal to roughly twice the per capita income of africans in south africa the study examines how this transfer affects the labor supply of prime age individuals living with these elderly in extended families it finds a sharp drop in the working hours of prime age individuals in these households when women turn 60 years old or men turn 65 the ages at which they become eligible for pensions it also finds that the drop in labor supply is much larger when the pensioner is a woman suggesting an imperfect pooling of resources the allocation of resources among prime age individuals depends strongly on their absolute age and gender as well as on their relative age the oldest son in the household reduces his working hours more than any other prime age household member

international tourism and export instability export diversification has been suggested as a strategy for decreasing the level of export earnings instability which is experienced by many developing countries in recent years the international tourism sector has made an increasingly important contribution to the economies of many low income countries this article examines whether diversification into the non traditional tourism sector has succeeded in decreasing the instability of export earnings it was found that although tourism has the advantage of high growth rates and is a major source of foreign currency receipts earnings from international tourism did not bring about a significant decrease in the instability of export earnings of most of the developing and industrialised countries considered furthermore a net increase in the instability of earnings from tourism and merchandise exports occurred in a number of countries and may be a particular problem in small open developing economies

predicting tourism demand using fuzzy time series and hybrid grey theory abstract forecasting tourism demand in a capacity constrained service industry has been a major theme in this field this study presents two models that can be used to predict tourism demand both two models are based on artificial intelligent ai neural network theory was first applied to tourism demand forecasting in 2000 and empirically tested using the raw data from hong kong this work provides empirical evidence using grey theory and fuzzy time series which do not need large sample and long past time series these ai models are estimated for tourist arrivals to taiwan from hong kong united states and germany during the period of 1989 2000 gm 1 1 model achieves an accurate forecast when the sample data show a stable increase trend nevertheless the markov modification model can efficiently improved the gm 1 1 model when the sample data show significant fluctuations

back propagation learning in improving the accuracy of neural network based tourism demand forecasting abstract traditional tourism demand forecasting techniques concentrate predominantly on multivariate regression models and univariate time series models these single mathematical function based forecasting techniques although they have achieved a certain degree of success in tourism forecasting are unable to represent the relationship of demand for tourism as accurate as a multiprocessing node based feed forward neural network previous research has demonstrated that using a feed forward neural network can accomplish a higher forecasting accuracy than the regression and time series techniques for a set of linearly separable tourism demand data this research extends the applicability of neural networks in tourism demand forecasting by incorporating the back propagation learning process into a non linearly separable tourism demand data empirical results indicate that utilizing a back propagation neural network outperforms regression models time series models and feed forward neural networks in terms of forecasting accuracy

on the efficiency of fixed price equilibrium abstract we study the efficiency properties of k equilibrium a species of fixed price equilibrium in particular we examine the interrelations among k equilibria and two of its properties order and voluntariness we also consider several alternative concepts of optimality

a comparison of three different approaches to tourist arrival forecasting abstract forecasting plays a major role in tourism planning the promotion of tourism projects involving substantial sums of money requires an estimate of future demand and market penetration the commitment to developing tourism would be much easier if it were possible to analyse current and past tourist traffic and predict the nature of changes in tourism demand these extrapolative approaches to forecasting require historical data this paper investigates the application of three time series forecasting techniques namely exponential smoothing univariate arima and elman s model of artificial neural networks ann to predict travel demand i e the number of arrivals from different countries to hong kong exponential smoothing and arima are two commonly used statistical time series forecasting techniques the third approach neural networks is an artificial intelligence technique derived from computer science according to the analysis presented in this paper neural networks seems to be the best method for forecasting visitor arrivals especially those series without obvious pattern

is there a child labor trap intergenerational persistence of child labor in brazil this article examines the intergenerational persistence of child labor empirically by looking at household survey data from brazil previous empirical work on child labor has focused primarily on isolating the determinants of child labor using survey data we take a different approach by asking does the child labor status of parents affect the child labor incidence of their children we look at this question in two ways our working assumption is that financial need creates this generational link but we also ask if there exists an intergenerational link over and above that which is transmitted through the production of income perhaps through norms we find strong evidence that this link exists and that it appears to persist even when income is held constant moreover we find that children who did not work as child laborers command higher salaries later in life which suggests that the potential human capital gains through apprenticeship as children are outweighed by the human capital gains children receive through schooling excerpt

risk financial markets and human capital in a developing country this paper explores the link between financial market incompleteness and human capital accumulation we examine how child school attendance responds to seasonal fluctuations in the income of agrarian households using panel data from rural india to pinpoint market imperfections we study responses to aggregate and idiosyncratic as well as to anticipated and unanticipated income shocks our main finding is that seasonal fluctuations in school attendance are a form of self insurance but one which does not result in a substantial loss of human capital on average

the forecasting of international expo tourism using quantitative and qualitative techniques this study predicts the number of visitors to an international tourism expo to be held in korea in 2012 an unprecedented event for the host city forecasting demand for such a mega event has received only limited attention in the literature unlike most studies forecasting international tourism demand forecasting expo demand involves using both quantitative forecasting models and qualitative technique because of data limitations combining quantitative techniques with willingness to visit wtv surveys predicts the expo demand at 8 9 million visitors in comparison using the delphi method experts predict expo demand at 6 8 million visitors for this study the delphi method provides more conservative estimates than estimates from combining quantitative techniques with wtv policy implications presented are directed toward expo planners and practitioners in terms of demand and supply side application of these results in the decision making process and future challenges surrounding demand forecasting

modelling us tourism demand for european destinations abstract an almost ideal demand system model is used to examine us demand for tourism in european destinations the model provides policy makers with useful information concerning the sensitivity of tourism demand to changes in relative prices exchange rates and expenditure the results show that price competitiveness is important for us demand for france italy and spain but is relatively unimportant for the uk france and italy are regarded as substitutes by us tourists as are spain and italy as us expenditure rises the market shares of spain and the uk decline while france and italy benefit the demand modelling and forecasting indicate that in the absence of a tourism price index the choice between alternative price indices does not have a significant effect on the results

modelling the uncertainty in monthly international tourist arrivals to the maldives abstract the indian ocean tsunami of 26 december 2004 made clear the devastating short term impact in lost lives as well as the longer term impact in lost livelihoods and an uncertain future tourism was one of the more obvious non human casualties of this tragic natural phenomenon tourism is the principal industry in the maldives accounting for more than 30 of gdp and more than 60 of foreign exchange earnings as over 55 of government tax revenue arises from tourism related taxes and monthly government budget financing depends largely on international tourist arrivals the monitoring of daily weekly and monthly international tourist arrivals is essential for fiscal policy evaluation over 600 000 tourists visited the maldives in 2004 this paper examines the time series properties of monthly international tourist arrivals to the maldives from eight major tourist source countries namely italy germany uk japan france switzerland austria and the netherlands from 1 january 1994 to 31 december 2003 monthly international tourist arrivals and the associated uncertainty are estimated for the eight principal tourist source countries univariate and multivariate time series models of conditional volatility or uncertainty are estimated and tested the conditional correlations are estimated and examined to ascertain whether there is specialization diversification or segmentation in the international tourism demand shocks from the major tourism source countries to the maldives the estimated static conditional correlations for monthly international tourist arrivals as well as for the respective transformed series were found to be significantly different from zero but also relatively low this indicates that the government of the maldives and the major tour operators that organise tourist vacations have to emphasise their marketing efforts independently of each tourist source country

the response of household consumption to income tax refunds a central implication of the life cycle or permanent income theory is that consumption should not respond to predictable fluctuations in income tests of this implication have yielded mixed results especially on micro data angus deaton 1992 martin browning and annamaria lusardi 1996 in large part this might be due to the difficulties of isolating the predictable component of income at the micro level most tests proceed by instrumenting for income but since the available instruments are typically poor such tests might be prejudiced against finding significant excess sensitivity of consumption to income john shea 1995 also it is not clear how closely the resulting econometric predictions of income coincide with agents actual expectations of income to avoid these difficulties this paper examines the response of household consumption to a particular type of income that is both predictable and transitory income tax refunds since a refund depends on events in the previous calendar year it is predictable income as regards consumption in the year of its receipt consequently under the life cycle theory consumption should not increase on receipt of a refund 2 in addition to testing the canonical model of consumption this paper provides estimates interpretable as the marginal propensity to consume mpc out of refunds since federal tax refunds now amount to over 80 billion per year averaging well over 1 000 per refund these estimates are of interest in themselves more generally they bear on the impact of even preannounced and temporary changes in fiscal policy the paper begins by surveying related studies in section i section ii describes the data the consumer expenditure survey cex which of the leading u s micro data sets has the most comprehensive coverage of expenditure the empirical specification is set out in section hi section iv reports the results and section v concludes

a model of imperfect competition with keynesian features the recent literature on the reappraisal of keynes has viewed keynesian equilibria as arising when prices are fixed and effective demands and supplies are equilibrated through the adjustment of quantities one problem with this approach is that it lacks a theory of price determination in particular of why prices are fixed in the present paper we show that a number of keynesian features arise in a model in which prices are fully flexible but where agents have some monopoly power one advantage of this approach is that it provides a theory of the determination of both prices and quantities

tourism forecasting to combine or not to combine abstract existing non tourism related literature shows that forecast combination can improve forecasting accuracy this study tests this proposition in the tourism context by examining the efficiency of combining forecasts based on three different combination methods the data used for this study relate to tourist arrivals in hong kong from the top ten tourism generating countries regions the forecasts are derived from four different forecasting models autoregressive integrated moving average arima model autoregressive distributed lag model adlm error correction model ecm and vector autoregressive var model all forecasts are ex post and the empirical results show that the relative performance of combination versus single model forecasts varies according to the origin destination tourist flow under consideration which parallels previous findings regarding the relative performance of individual forecasting methods the results also vary with the combination techniques used furthermore although the combined forecasts do not always outperform the best single model forecasts almost all the combined forecasts are not outperformed by the worst single model forecasts this suggests that forecast combination can considerably reduce the risk of forecasting failure this conclusion also implies that combined forecasts are likely to be preferred to single model forecasts in many practical situations

changing world prices women s wages and the fertility transition sweden 1860 1910 this time series analysis examines during 1860 1910 the impact of changes in local prices of agricultural commodities on wages among men and women in sweden and the impact of changes in wages on fertility decline child mortality urbanization and improved social conditions linear ordinary least squares models are set up to determine whether demand induced increases in womens wages relative to mens are significant factors in explaining swedish total fertility rates data are obtained from 25 counties and the city of stockholm among pooled observations for six time periods during 1860 64 and 1910 14 this period is marked by a total fertility decline of 28 a marital fertility decline of 26 and a child mortality decline of 52 explanatory variables are the relative prices of main agricultural outputs employment outside of agriculture the proportion of urban population and the child mortality rate findings indicate a significant relationship between child mortality and total fertility and specific fertility rates among women aged 20 39 years a doubling of the male real wage rate was significantly associated with earlier marriage higher birth rates among women aged 15 29 years and lower birth rates among women aged 35 49 years the ratio of male wages to female wages was associated with a decline in birth rates at all ages with the exception of teenagers 66 of fertility increase was due to declines in child mortality but this increase was counterbalanced by fertility decline among older women child mortality and urbanization depressed marital fertility male wages increased the proportion married a 10 increase in the male female wage rate was associated with a 25 reduction in the total fertility rate another 25 increase in the male female wage rate was associated with a 50 reduction in child mortality it is concluded that the value of womens time had a key impact on the swedish fertility transition

fixprice analysis in productive economies abstract the paper compares the definitions of fixprice equilibrium for productive convex economies due to dreze benassy and malinvaud younes it turns out that dreze s resp malinvaud younes notion is the strictest resp least strict one the three notions are however equivalent under smoothness and absence of intermediate goods they are in particular equivalent for the familiar fixprice model with three goods money labor and output studied among others by barro grossman benassy and malinvaud

school attendance child labor and local labor market fluctuations in urban brazil abstract while the income poverty effect on child labor is long established as a main determinant of child labor there is a growing body of literature considering the pull of the labor market this paper demonstrates that after controlling for household characteristics employment rates for 14 16 year old boys and girls in urban brazil increase as local labor market opportunities improve children are also more likely to leave school as local labor market conditions become more favorable the relationship between children s schooling and work and local labor market conditions changes in years of crisis compared to other years the effects of macroeconomic fluctuations on children s school and work behavior are examined with particular focus on whether the income effect or substitution effect dominates as macroeconomic conditions change over time the study uses data from the pesquisa nacional amostra de domicilios a large household survey that is conducted almost annually by the ibge we use variation in the urban areas of 25 states over 12 years to identify the aggregate effects

imperfect competition and fixprice equilibria when goods are gross substitutes it is possible in principle that the price quantity pair generated by a model of imperfect competition may satisfy the conditions voluntary trading and absence of frictions for a fixprice equilibrium it is shown that imperfect competitors will typically satisfy voluntary trading provided that appropriate gross substitute assumptions are satisfied hence such assumptions are seen to ensure that the solutions of some well known imperfectly competitive general equilibrium models are indeed fixprice equilibria thus bringing together two important traditions in theoretical microeconomics copyright 1991 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

combining volatility and smoothing forecasts of uk demand for international tourism abstract univariate volatility models are applied to uk tourism demand to the country s most popular international destinations volatility is a concept borrowed from finance the fact that significant volatility models are found for ten of the twelve destinations examined shows that the volatility concept has relevance to tourism demand volatility models are able to quantify the impacts of positive and negative shocks on tourism demand the impacts of negative shocks vary in magnitude and duration according to the destination involved and the nature of the shock the forecasting capability of these models has never been assessed in the tourism field they are shown to generate highly accurate forecasts but become optimal when combined with forecasts obtained from exponential smoothing models two methods of combining individual forecasts are considered bias in individual volatility and smoothing models and in combinations of them is examined

there may be unemployment when the labour market is competitive and the output market is not is unemployment always caused by union power or more generally downwards rigidity of wages the influential article by hart i 982 says yes there cannot be unemployment unless labour unions prevent wages from falling the more recent papers by d aspremont et al i 984 i989 a b and by dehez i 985 say no unemployment may occur when the labour market is perfectly competitive and the output market is not all this work assumes a fixed labour supply but the more recent models significantly depart from hart s formulation in other respects 2 one may ask which answer is the robust one this paper shows that hart s answer is based on a facilitating assumption on marginal revenue i replace it by a more realistic hypothesis and replicate hart s existence and comparative statics results except that now unemployment may occur when the labour market is perfectly competitive and the output market is not more precisely there can be unemployment at any nonnegative wage and perfect competition in the labour market may generate zero wages and unemployment labour becoming a free good in excess supply a useful costless resource is then wasted away and thus a gross form of inefficiency occurs in hart i982 on the contrary perfect competition in the labour market necessarily yields full employment and pareto efficiency labour does not often become a free good in excess supply in modern industrial economies but this possibility may help explain why labour markets have become noncompetitive wages are positive at an overall walrasian equilibrium but imagine that the output markets become oligopolistic and as a result the perfectly competitive wage drops to zero workers are now severely exploited in the sense of joan robinson i933 ch 25 and pigou i920 because the real wage is lower than the physical marginal product of labour unionisation can then be seen as providing countervailing power in

on the effectiveness of economic policy when competition is imperfect and expectations are rational abstract we study the consequences of imperfect competition in a macro model with only one imperfection that of labor market competition otherwise the model is clean agents are optimizers prices are endogenous and expectations are rational we show that although imperfect competition in itself can explain unemployment as is well known it does not in itself give strong support to the use of traditional fiscal policy in fighting unemployment fiscal policy will almost inevitably have real effects but only through a special effect that may be difficult to control in many cases fiscal policy cannot create full employment and it may very well have perverse effects

college entry by blacks since 1970 the role of college costs family background and the returns to education college enrollment of black 18 19 year old high school graduates declined from 1980 through 1984 and then rebounded after 1984 this paper presents data from a time series of cross sections of 18 19 year old youths from 1973 through 1988 to test the role of family background direct college costs local economic conditions and returns to college in driving these trends the evidence suggests that on the one hand increases in direct college costs were driving enrollment rates downward throughout the eighties on the other hand dramatic increases in average parental education for black youths exerted upward pressure on college enrollment by blacks particularly in the latter half of the decade the net effect of these two factors contributed to the pattern of decline and recovery observed during the eighties

does the availability of high wage jobs for low skilled men affect welfare expenditures evidence from shocks to the steel and coal industries abstract we study shocks to the coal and steel industries to measure the effect of long term changes in demand for low skilled workers on welfare expenditures the coal and steel industries have historically paid high wages to low skilled men we find a substantial increase in welfare expenditures in response to the collapse of the steel and coal industries in the 1980s and an even more substantial reduction in welfare expenditures during the coal boom of the 1970s additional analysis indicates the reduction in welfare expenditures during the coal boom is due in part to a decline in single parent households