exchange rate regimes and the international transmission of business cycles capital account openness matters abstract we investigate the role of exchange rate regimes in the international transmission of business cycles during the global financial crisis we find that exchange rate regimes alone did not account for differences in the international transmission of business cycles during the crisis however analysis considering capital account openness and countries with currencies pegged to the u s dollar indicates that exchange rate regimes play an important role in shaping business cycle co movement adopting a fixed regime with high capital account openness additionally increased business cycle co movement with the united states during the crisis whereas u s dollar peggers with relatively restrictive capital accounts during the crisis were not found to affect business cycle transmission

the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

the real effects of financial integration abstract this paper shows how correlations in gdp fluctuations rise with financial integration finance serves to increase international correlations in both consumption and gdp fluctuations which explains the persistent gap between the two in the data a quantity puzzle the positive association between financial integration and gdp correlation constitutes a puzzle as theory suggests a negative relation if anything nevertheless it prevails in the data even after the effects of finance on trade and specialization are accounted for

investigating the cost performance of uk credit unions using radial and non radial efficiency measures abstract this paper examines the relative efficiency of uk credit unions radial and non radial measures of input cost efficiency plus associated scale efficiency measures are computed for a selection of input output specifications both measures highlighted that uk credit unions have considerable scope for efficiency gains it was mooted that the documented high levels of inefficiency may be indicative of the fact that credit unions based on clearly defined and non overlapping common bonds are not in competition with each other for market share credit unions were also highlighted as suffering from a considerable degree of scale inefficiency with the majority of scale inefficient credit unions subject to decreasing returns to scale the latter aspect highlights that the uk government s goal of larger credit unions must be accompanied by greater regulatory freedom if inefficiency is to be avoided one of the advantages of computing non radial measures is that an insight into potential over or under expenditure on specific inputs can be obtained through a comparison of the non radial measure of efficiency with the associated radial measure two interesting findings emerged the first that uk credit unions over spend on dividend payments and the second that they under spend on labour costs

detecting abnormal credit union performance abstract credit unions are an important financial intermediary but little credit union research is done a primary reason for the lack of research is the cooperative nature of the industry making traditional methods of detecting abnormal performance inappropriate this paper proposes two methods of detecting abnormal performance one parametric the other non parametric instead of testing the efficiency of the institution this paper proposes testing the return vector as indicated in the theoretical objective function of the member simulations demonstrate that both methods are correctly specified and powerful

bank integration and state business cycles we investigate how integration of bank ownership across states has affected economic volatility within states in theory bank integration could cause higher or lower volatility depending on whether credit supply or credit demand shocks predominate in fact year to year fluctuations in a state s economic growth fall as its banks become more integrated via holding companies with banks in other states as the bank linkages between any pair of states increase fluctuations in those two states tend to converge we conclude that interstate banking has made state business cycles smaller but more alike i introduction the united states banking system was once anything but united until 1978 every state in the union barred banks from other states so instead of one national banking system we had more like 50 little banking systems one per state 1 once states opened their borders to out of state banks bank holding companies marched in and bought up or merged with banks all over the country in 1975 just 10 percent of the bank assets in the typical state were owned by a multistate bank holding company by 1994 this interstate bank asset ratio had risen to 60 percent figure i our paper investigates how the advent of interstate banking integration in the united states has affected economic volatility within states with the united states balkanized banking system the fate of a state and its banks were closely tied as went the state so went the banks the farm price deflation in the early 1980s bankrupted many farmers and many farm banks falling oil prices in the mid 1980s wiped out a lot of texans and a lot of texas banks shocks to commodity prices probably caused these contractions but frictions in the banking sector may have aggravated them by allowing a freer flow of bank capital and lending among states we maintain that interstate banking will reduce the drag that banking frictions can have on economic contractions

credit union rate and earnings retention decisions under uncertainty and taxation this paper presents a model of credit union loan and deposit rate setting when net income flows are uncertain and subj ect to taxation optimal rates are chosen to maximize the expected va lue of a performance measure based on a comparison of the credit unio n s rates to alternative rates subject to a probabilistic constraint on the net change in capital reserves relative to a capital adequacy standard taxation will alter the end of period trade off between th e change in capital reserves and the immediate distribution of surplu s and would likely affect credit unions in a nonuniform manner and p erhaps be regressive in nature copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

trade finance specialization and synchronization i investigate the determinants of business cycle synchronization across regions the linkages between trade in goods financial openness specialization and business cycle synchronization are evaluated in the context of a system of simultaneous equations the main results are as follows i specialization patterns have a sizable effect on business cycles most of this effect is independent of trade or financial policy but directly reflects differences in gdp per capita ii a variety of measures of financial integration suggest that economic regions with strong financial links are significantly more synchronized even though they also tend to be more specialized iii the estimated role of trade is closer to that implied by existing models once intra industry trade is held constant the results obtain in a variety of data sets measurement strategies and specifications they relate to a recent strand of international business cycle models with incomplete markets and transport costs and on the empir

why do foreigners invest in the united states abstract why are foreigners willing to invest over 2 trillion per year in the united states this paper tests various hypotheses and finds that standard portfolio allocation models and diversification motives are poor predictors of foreign holdings of u s liabilities instead foreigners hold greater shares of their investment portfolios in the united states if they have less developed financial markets the magnitude of this effect decreases with income per capita countries that trade more with the united states also have greater portfolio shares in u s equity and bond markets these results support recent theoretical work on the role of financial development in sustaining global imbalances and have important implications for whether the united states can continue to attract sufficient financing from abroad without major changes in asset prices and returns especially in bond markets

an aggregate model of the credit union industry prior to 1971 credit unions cus were almost exclusively short term lenders with their deposit base consisting primarily of passbook share accounts radical institutional changes during the 1970 s have reshaped the industry and increased the competition between cus and other financial institutions the introduction of federal share insurance in 1971 coupled with the highest deposit ceiling allowed by regulators allowed cus to attract funds from other intermediaries while cus have a yield advantage they have been much slower to introduce day of deposit to day of withdrawal interest accumulation so that many cu deposits may be regarded more as short term certificate accounts rather than open passbooks thus as the federal reserve system and the federal home loan bank board have liberalized cu yields maturities and minimum denominations it has affected cus ability to attract share deposits substantial competition exists in loan markets as well banks finance companies and the credit acceptance subsidies of many manufacturing corporations also extend consumer credit while cus have entered mortgage markets in this study a six equation simultaneous model is developed to estimate three different aggregate flows within the industry new loan extensions net share flows and net change in financial investments two price variables the average cu loan rate and average dividend rate and the median maturity on newly extended loans to account for endogenous changes in non price terms which may affect both the supply and demand for loans this study is important to both researchers and policymakers despite the movement to make credit unions more like and more competitive with other financial institutions there remains a general perception that cus are different that they cannot be analyzed by applying well known economic theories and methods and that they remain insulated from both general economic conditions and competition the evidence from this study suggests that those perceptions are in error even though the industry remains small relative to other providers of consumer financial services because cus are no longer insulated it is important to know the impact of changing economic conditions on the industry department of economics john carroll university funding by the national credit union administration ncua is gratefully acknowledged participants in a seminar at ncua provided the author with seveal suggestions which were incorporated in the research special thanks are due to john wolken who spent countless hours in discussion with the author and catherine melfi and george kosicki who provided research assistance any remaining errors or omissions are the sole responsibility of the author

ownership effects among native american banks 2001 2016 abstractminority depository institutions mdis including native american banks natbs play an integral role in providing financial services to the under served natbs are split between those th

accounting window dressing and template regulation a case study of the australian credit union industry this article documents the response of cooperative institutions that were required to adhere to new capital adequacy regulations traditionally geared for profit maximising organisations using data from the australian credit union industry we demonstrate that the cooperative philosophy and internal corporate governance structure of cooperatives will lead management to increase capital adequacy ratios through the application of accounting window dressing techniques this is opposite to the intended purpose of template regulation aimed at efficiently increasing operating margins and lowering risk our results raise several debatable issues regarding the ethics of accounting management and the imposition of one shoe fits all external regulation

international financial contagion in currency crises abstract this paper examines the role of financial linkages especially through a common creditor in the propagation of emerging market crises during the 1990s using panel probit regressions on 41 emerging market countries it finds that financial linkages played a significant role in the spread of the mexican asian and russian crises the significance of financial linkages emerges after controlling for the role of domestic and external fundamentals trade spillovers and financial weaknesses in the affected countries a strong financial linkage to the crisis country of origin not only substantially raises the probability of contagion but also helps to explain the observed regional concentration of currency crises

can leading indicators assess country vulnerability evidence from the 2008 09 global financial crisis abstract we investigate whether leading indicators can help explain the cross country incidence of the 2008 09 financial crisis rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the recent crisis the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty papers from the previous literature on early warning indicators our motivation is to address suspicions that indicators found to be useful predictors in one round of crises are typically not useful to predict the next round the review suggests that central bank reserves and past movements in the real exchange rate were the two leading indicators that had proven the most useful in explaining crisis incidence across different countries and episodes in the past for the 2008 09 crisis we use six different variables to measure crisis incidence drops in gdp and industrial production currency depreciation stock market performance reserve losses and participation in an imf program we find that the level of reserves in 2007 appears as a consistent and statistically significant leading indicator of who got hit by the 2008 09 crisis in line with the conclusions of the pre 2008 literature in addition to reserves recent real appreciation is a statistically significant predictor of devaluation and of a measure of exchange market pressure during the current crisis we define the period of the global financial shock as running from late 2008 to early 2009 which probably explains why we find stronger results than earlier papers such as obstfeld et al 2009 2010 and rose and spiegel 2009a b 2010 2011 which use annual data

the evolution of cost productivity and efficiency among us credit unions abstract advances in information processing technology have eroded the advantages of small scale and proximity to customers that traditionally enabled small lenders to thrive nonetheless the membership and market share of us credit unions have increased though their average size has also risen we investigate changes in the efficiency and productivity of us credit unions during 1989 2006 by benchmarking the performance of individual firms against an estimated order quantile lying near the efficient frontier we construct a cost analog of the malmquist productivity index which we decompose to estimate changes in cost and scale efficiency and changes in technology we find that cost productivity fell on average across all credit unions but especially among smaller credit unions smaller credit unions confronted a shift in technology that increased the minimum cost required to produce given amounts of output all but the largest credit unions also became less scale efficient over time

optimal credit rationing in not for profit financial institutions we examine the dynamic optimization problem for not for profit financial institutions nfps that maximize consumer surplus not profits we characterize the optimal dynamic policy and find that it involves credit rationing interest rates set by mature nfps will typically be more favorable to customers than market rates as any surplus is distributed in the form of interest rate subsidies with credit rationing being required to prevent these subsidies from distorting loan volumes from their optimal levels rationing overcomes a fundamental problem in nfps it allows them to distribute the surplus without distorting the volume of activity from the efficient level

credit union policies and performances in latin america this paper presents a conceptual framework for explaining credit unions cus loan delinquency and profitability in developing countries it also offers an empirical estimation for a unique sample of cus in latin america

federal credit private credit and economic activity the federal open market committee has been monitoring total domestic nonfinancial debt since early 1983 the evidence reported in this paper shows that the federal and non federal private components of the debt have significantly different impacts on economic activity thus monitoring total debt rather than its major subcomponents implies that the federal open market committee is ignoring important information contained in a more disaggregated analysis copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

capital and credit market integration and real economic contagion during the global financial crisis abstract this study investigates the role of financial integration in the spread of global financial crisis in particular this study shows how the effect of the crisis on real business cycle co movement varied for capital and credit market integration using a sample of 58 countries in 2001 2013 during the global financial crisis the united states the epicenter of the crisis experienced a severe downturn in the real economy and other countries followed suit we find that during the global financial crisis the business cycle co movements between the united states and the rest of the world were stronger when the level of capital market integration between them was higher however the co movements were weaker when the level of credit market integration was higher these findings are robust even when including investment channels local fundamental factors endogenous policy responses across countries and alternative measures for financial integration and business cycle co movements

an economic theory of a credit union the majority of research to date on cus has been empirical cf cargill 1 and kidwell and peterson 7 yet there is serious need to develop a theoretical framework of cu behavior that incorporates their unique characteristics a cu is essentially a financial intermediation cooperative however the standard theoretical treatments of financial intermediaries cf meyer 8 and cooperative enterprises cannot be directly applied to model credit union behavior there are two principal characteristics of cus that prevent this first in a cu and cooperatives in general the members are both the owners of the organization and the consumers of its output or suppliers of its input one cannot simply assume that the members seek to maximize the profit generated by their transactions with the cu irrespective of the price and quantities of those same transactions thus models of a financial firm based on profit maximization cannot be directly translated to a cu environment second in a cu the membership provides both the demand for and supply of loanable funds the cu then intermediates between its member savers and member borrowers this heterogeneity is an inherent source of conflict between members clearly a cu cannot simultaneously maximize its dividend rate for savers and minimize its loan rate for borrowers since most theoretical models of cooperative enterprises assume a homogeneous member objective they are not generally applicable to cus there are two basic requirements for a framework to model cu behavior first the specification of the objective function should focus on the value of cu participation to the members this value should include the prices and quantities of transactions as well as any profit that results second the analysis should explicitly consider the possibility of conflict among members and the resolution of that conflict being a preference to either the borrowers or savers the existing literature on cus contains a wide variety of objective functions hempel and yawitz 5 ignore the owners are consumers issue and simply contend that cus like other financial intermediaries should maximize profit most writers however recognize that profit maximization would be a somewhat incongruous objective for an organization that typically labels itself not for profit murray and white 9 use cost minimization subject to an output constraint keating 6 employs the managerial discretion approach by maximizing the manager s utility function subject to minimum member benefit constraints taylor 11 12 suggests that the cu should minimize the difference between its average loan rate and savings rate paid smith 10 argues that the cu should

are credit unions too small abstract u s credit unions serve 93 million members hold 10 of u s savings deposits and make 13 2 of all nonrevolving consumer loans since 1985 the share of u s depository institution asse

economies of scale and economies of scope in multiproduct financial institutions a study of british columbia credit unions this paper investigates the production technology facing computerized credit unions in canada a full system of translog cost equations is estimated in order to test for economies of scale economies of scope and other production characteristics in a multiproduct context the regression results indicate that most of the credit unions in our sample experience significant increasing returns to scale as they expand their level of output there is also evidence of cost complementarity or economies of scope in their mortgage and other lending activities as a result legislation which limits the ability of credit unions to grow and diversify will likely raise the operating costs of this important group of financial institutions additional structural tests of the most general translog specification suggest that none of the restrictive production conditions commonly imposed by other researchers using cobb douglas and ces specifications provide a valid representation of credit union technology the results of many earlier studies are therefore open to question this paper presents a number of structural tests of the production technology facing large computerized credit unions in canada a full system of translog cost equations is estimated using detailed cross sectional data on british columbia credit unions the parameter estimates obtained from our multiproduct specification allow us to test for economies of scale economies of scope and factor substitution unlike many earlier studies the present paper introduces the various outputs as separate variables instead of crudely proxying them with a single output measure such as total assets the total number of loans or the number of depositors by explicitly recognizing the multiproduct nature of the intermediation process we are able to address more interesting production questions and remove some of the bias caused by misspecification and measurement error in simpler approaches the flexible translog specification allows us to estimate the sensitivity of costs to proportionate increases in all outputs economies of scale as well as the cost savings firms realize by producing several outputs jointly rather than specializing in the production of one economies of scope the test results reported in the latter part of the paper suggest that increasing returns to scale exist in almost all of the credit unions in our sample though

a theoretic framework for the analysis of credit union decision making this paper presents a formal theoretic framework to analyze credit union interest rates on loans and savings deposits the unique motivational and institutional features of a credit union in particular its structure as a financial service cooperative are used to develop the objective function this is based on a comparison of the credit union s rates to alternatively available market rates and includes parameters to recognize the possibility of borrower saver conflict the principal result is that the optimal rates and reactions to exogenous changes depend critically on the preference of the organization toward financial gain to the borrowing and saving members

the dynamics of fertility family planning and female education in a developing economy unlike most empirical works on fertility analysis this study is the first attempt to analyse the dynamics of fertility and its determinants with a particular focus on the role played by female education and family planning programmes in the context of a traditional society the analysis is based on the application of the following dynamic time series techniques in a multivariate context cointegration vector error correction modelling and variance decompositions these dynamic tools are recently developed and hitherto untried in fertility analysis in the context of a poor developing economy such as india the results based on the above most recently developed methodology broadly indicate that in the complex dynamic interactions the importance of conventional structural hypothesis as a granger causal factor in bringing fertility down in the longer term cannot be denied however overall in the short to long term the findings appear to be more consistent with the recent ideational hypothesis

atheoretical macroeconometrics a critique abstract the spurious nature of the restrictions used to identify many macroeconometric models has led some researchers to advocate a style of econometric inquiry that is less dependent on prior theoretical restrictions of the sort that were central to the approach of the cowles commission this development which we call atheoretical macroeconometrics is summarized and evaluated in the current paper it is contrasted with an updated version of the cowles commission approach we conclude that while some of the exercises of atheoretical macroeconometrics are valid those that have attracted the most attention and appear the most innovative exogeneity testing impulse response analysis and policy analysis using estimated vector autoregressions are based on incorrect analysis

on crises contagion and confusion abstract since the tequila crisis of 1994 1995 the asian flu of 1997 and the russian virus of 1998 economists have been busy producing research on the subject of contagion yet few studies have examined empirically through which channels the disturbances are transmitted if there are indeed fundamental reasons for the spillovers we observe we attempt to fill this gap by analyzing how both trade links and the largely ignored financial sector links influence the pattern of fundamentals based contagion we examine the role of international bank lending the potential for cross market hedging and bilateral and third party trade in the propagation of crises

financial integration and international business cycle co movement international business cycle transmission through integrated financial markets occurs through wealth and balance sheet effects balance sheet effects lead to business cycle convergence but wealth effects lead to divergence this paper shows empirically that debt market integration has a positive effect on co movement implying that balance sheet effects are the main conduit for international transmission through integrated debt markets equity market integration has a negative effect implying that wealth effects are the main channel for international transmission through integrated equity markets distinguishing between wealth and balance sheet effects resolves some key discrepancies between empirical and theoretical findings in international macroeconomics

financial institutions and markets across countries and over time the updated financial development and structure database this article introduces the updated and expanded version of the financial development and structure database the database includes indicators on the size efficiency and stability of banks nonbank financial institutions and equity and bond markets over 1960 2007 it also contains indicators of financial globalization

the monetary transmission mechanism an empirical framework this paper provides an overview of the monetary transmission mechanism describing the impact of changes in monetary policy on real gdp changes in financial market prices including long term interest rates and exchange rates are the main vehicle for the transmission of policy the framework incorporates rational expectations and policy rules it is empirical and appears to fit the facts well

benefit imbalances among credit union member groups evidence of borrower dominated saver dominated and neutral behaviour theoretical models of credit union cu behaviour suggest that cus may be saver dominated borrower dominated or neutral a cu is dominated if it is operated for the benefit of one member group at the expense of the other neutral behaviour occurs when a cu is managed so that both member groups are equally benefited this empirical study develops a direct measure of the monetary benefits to each member group and tests for the existence of dominated behaviour among us cus in 1984 and 1985 evidence of dominated and neutral behaviour is found and the operating characteristics of these distinct organizational forms are generally consistent with theoretical expectations

how does globalization affect the synchronization of business cycles this paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries the results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles the evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is mostly limited to industrial countries one striking result is that on average cross country consumption correlations have not increased in the 1990s precisely when financial integration would have been expected to result in better risk sharing opportunities especially for developing countries this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

economies of diversification in the us credit union sector summary significant scale economies have been recently cited to rationalize a dramatic growth in the us retail credit union sector over the past few decades in this paper we explore another plausible supply side explanation for the growth of the industry namely economies of diversification we focus on the fact that credit unions differ among themselves in the range of financial services they offer to their members since larger credit unions tend to offer a more diversified financial service menu than credit unions of a smaller size the incentive to grow in size may be fueled not only by present scale economies but also by economies of diversification this paper provides the first robust estimates of such economies of diversification for the credit union sector we estimate a flexible semiparametric smooth coefficient quantile panel data model with correlated effects that is capable of accommodating a four way heterogeneity among credit unions our results indicate the presence of non negligible economies of diversification in the industry we find that as many as 27 91 depending on the type and the cost quantile of diversified credit unions enjoy substantial economies of diversification the cost of most remaining credit unions is invariant to the scope of services we also find overwhelming evidence of increasing returns to scale in the industry

determinants of business cycle comovement a robust analysis abstract this paper investigates the determinants of business cycle comovement between countries our dataset includes over 100 countries both developed and developing we search for variables that are robust in explaining comovement using the approach of leamer amer econom rev 73 1983 31 variables considered are i bilateral trade between countries ii total trade in each country iii sectoral structure iv similarity in export and import baskets v factor endowments and vi gravity variables we find that bilateral trade is robust however two variables that the literature has argued are important for business cycles industrial structure and currency unions are found not to be robust

the economic impact of the federal credit union usury ceiling this study measures the impact of the federal credit union usury ceiling on consumer credit availability and loan rates when binding the ceiling keeps loan rates low but it reduces credit union lending there is also evidence that a binding loan rate ceiling affects the competitiveness of credit unions in the market for deposits although the federal credit union act specifically mandates federally chartered credit unions to be a source of low cost consumer credit and to promote thriftiness it is not at all clear that the intent of the act is served by a binding usury ceiling

money real interest rates and output a reinterpretation of postwar u s data this paper reexamines both monthly and quarterly u s postwar data to investigate if the observed comovements between money real interestrates prices and output are compatible with the money real interest output link suggested by existing monetary theories of output which include both keynesian and equilibrium models the major empirical findings are these 1 in both monthly and quarterly data we cannot reject the hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is exogenous or granger causally prior in the context of a four variable system which contains money prices nominal interest rates and industrial production 2 in quarterly data there is significantly more information con tained in either the levels of expected inflation or the innovationof this variable for predicting future output given current and lagged output than in any other variable examined money actualinflation nominal interest rates or ex ante real rates the effect of an inflation innovation on future output is unambiguously negative the first result casts strong doubt on the empirical importance of existing monetary theories of output which imply that money should have a causal role on the ex ante real rates the second result would appear incompatible with most demand driven models of output in light of these results we propose an alternative structural model which can account for the major dynamic interactions among the variables this model has two central features i output is unaffected by money supply and ii the money supply process is motivated by short run price stability this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

money income and credit income relationships during the pre and the post liberalization periods evidence from malaysia using the bernanke s contemporaneous structural var this paper investigates the role of money and credit in the monetary transmission mechanism during the pre and post liberalization periods in malaysia during the pre liberalization period where credit and interest rates were regulated the evidence supports the dominance of bank credit shocks over money shocks in explaining the output variability after the liberalization of financial market however money as well as credit innovations were proven to make significant contribution to the output fluctuation

a primer on financial contagion abstract this paper presents a theoretical framework to highlight possible channels for the international transmission of financial shocks we first review the different definitions and measures of contagion adopted by the literature we then use a simple multi country asset pricing model to classify the main elements of the current debate on contagion and provide a stylized account of how a crisis in one country can spread to the world economy in particular the model shows how crises can be transmitted across countries without assuming ad hoc portfolio management rules or market imperfections finally tracking our classification we survey the results of the empirical literature on contagion

credit union structure growth and regulatory problems at year end 1979 there were 12 738 federal and 4 769 state chartered federally insured credit unions in the united states their assets were 36 5 billion and 18 5 billion respectively the industry was the fastest growing of all financial intermediaries during the early to mid 1970s factors contributing to a growth rate of 18 percent from 1970 to 1978 were the absence of regulation q restrictions on cu dividend rates tax exempt status of cus the advent of share insurance in 1970 and the impact of sponsor subsidies however during 1979 federal credit union savings grew by only 2 4 which was more than 85 lower than in the preceding year and was the slowest annual growth rate on record indeed since 1977 federal credit unions have gone from the fastest growing to the second slowest growing type of depository institution the reason for the changes in credit unions will be discussed after this section which provides background information on the structure of the industry that structure has historically led to a reduction in risk the basic components of that structure are common bond and sponsorship common bond credit unions are unique financial depository institutions in that they are consumer cooperatives and are limited to serving the market for consumer credit and savings generally these institutions cannot do business with the general public due to charter limitations based on serving a membership that is characterized by a common bond the common bond is based on occupation association or residence the only exceptions are generally found under state law and apply to state chartered institutions the common bond restriction on credit union membership is assumed to reduce the cost of gathering credit information reducing bad debt losses and manifests national credit union administration the views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the national credit union administration an extensive review of the history of credit unions and the institutional structure is found in

measuring european financial integration in this paper we present a set of specific measures to quantify the state and evolution of financial integration in the euro area five key markets are considered namely the money corporate bond government bond credit and equity markets building upon the law of one price we have developed two types of indicators that can be broadly categorized as price based and news based measures we have complemented these measures by a number of quantity based indicators mainly related to the evolution of the home bias results indicate that the unsecured money market is fully integrated while integration is reasonably high in the government and corporate bond markets as well as in the equity markets the credit market is among the least integrated especially in the short term segment

time series representations of economic variables and alternative models of the labour market accepting the hypothesis that the time series facts of the aggregate labour market may be summarized by the linear autoregressive and moving average representations of wages prices unemployment and interest rates implies that a useful theory ought to lead to predictions about these representations following this approach this paper first catalogues many of the time series facts about the aggregate labour market and then compares them against alternative models of the labour market based on the intertemporal substitution and staggered contract hypotheses

policy inference using var models policy inference using var models i introduction macroeconomics has a long tradition of examining the response of macroeconomic variables to shocks in alternative policy measures much recent work in this area has been based on the empirical regularities between variables found in vector autoregressive var models the var results in turn have been used to investigate the impact of changes in different policy variables var modeling procedures have been used to test the relative effects of changes in money interest rates broad credit measures and fiscal actions on economic activity 1 moreover because var analysis does not require the specification of an underlying theoretical model it also has been used to study the linkages among macroeconomic variables across national borders 2 although debate over the alleged atheoretical nature of vars continues for example see cooley and leroy 1985 leamer 1985 and braun and mittnik 1985 var models are frequently used for policy analysis how the dynamic specification of a var model is generated and how the dynamics may influence the resulting policy recommendation is the subject of this study while modeling the dynamic relationship among macro variables is a longstanding subject relatively few studies have tested for the effects of alternative lag structures on a given model to our knowledge there has been little systematic analysis of the sensitivity of policy effects to changes in the lag structure of a given var model 3 in this paper we investigate this specification problem using a simple four variable var model similar in spirit to sims s 1980b 4 this model consists of quarterly observations for money real output prices and nominal short term interest rates for the period 1960 through 1985 in selecting this model we opt to focus on the impacts of lag specification on policy inferences derived from a given var model in doing so we ignore the effects of altering the specification in terms of variables included or excluded this approach seems reasonable however since our purpose is to investigate the effects of lag structure not specification problems in general to compare the policy conclusions derived from the alternative dynamic structures we use six different lag selection criteria these criteria briefly described in section ii vary the bias efficiency tradeoff inherent in such statistical procedures section iii discusses the estimation of the var model using the alternative dynamic structures comparison of policy recommendations derived from the models is presented in section iv using variance decompositions anticipating that discussion the evidence from our model suggests that policy recommendations are very sensitive to changes in the dynamic structure conclusions close the paper in section v ii lag length selection procedures many previous researchers have chosen to impose equal lag lengths on each of the variables in their models 5 this approach produces parameter estimates that may suffer from bias or inefficiency depending on whether the model is under or over parameterized we use six different approaches to determine the lag specification five are based on statistical criteria with the exact criteria listed in table i for comparability we also employ the nonstatistical ad hoc procedure of arbitrarily fixing the maximum lag on all variables to be four quarters one of the statistical approaches used is the standard f test 6 the f test imposes zero restrictions on lags beyond some point and tests this restricted model against a more general lag structure the f statistic is calculated sequentially until adding another lag does not statistically improve the fit of the model two of the selection procedures use a mean squared error criterion these are mallows s 1973 c sub p statistic and akaike s 1970

econometric policy evaluation note for successive values of the endogenous variables y with the x treated as deterministic forcing variables here 0 is a parameter vector and the et are random shocks lucas correctly observed that such a formulation is inconsistent with a view of agents as optimizers except in special cases in which the future is irrelevant to present decisions it makes no sense to think of agents as optimizing if they know that their budget constraints are liable to shift arbitrarily i e in a way which is not characterized probabilistically as government policy changes lucas was led to augment the foregoing equation by adding to the system a government policy function

autonomy switching regimes and super exogeneity abstract in recent years the concept of switching regimes and super exogeneity has played a dominant part in the econometric debate the relevance of this discussion for the theories of economic policy is developed by lucas sargent and others in this article the very close parallel to the debate about autonomy in the 1940s is shown

global banks and crisis transmission abstract we study the effect of financial integration through banks on the transmission of international business cycles in a sample of 18 20 developed countries between 1978 and 2009 we find that in periods without financial crises increases in bilateral banking linkages are associated with more divergent output cycles this relation is significantly weaker during financial turmoil periods suggesting that financial crises induce co movement among more financially integrated countries we also show that countries with stronger direct and indirect financial ties to the u s experienced more synchronized cycles with the u s during the recent 2007 2009 crisis we then interpret these findings using a simple general equilibrium model of international business cycles with banks and shocks to banking activity the model suggests that the relation between integration and synchronization depends on the type of shocks hitting the world economy and that shocks to global banks played an important role in triggering and spreading the 2007 2009 crisis

adjustment costs and pricing to market theory and evidence abstract this paper develops an adjustment cost model of pricing to market the model consists of a monopolist who supplies an identical nondurable good to two foreign markets it is shown that the degree of pricing to market increases with the relative importance of the transitory component in exchange rates customs data from 1978 through 1987 on u s and canadian imports of seven german commodities are used to estimate the model s parameters and test its over identifying restrictions

an investigation of ricardian equivalence in a common trends model abstract to empirically discriminate between ricardian and non ricardian behaviour we have to use a method that distinguishes between expected and unexpected as well as permanent and transitory changes in taxes and government consumption one method that provides these distinctions between different types of changes is the common trends framework used in this paper which is a var model with cointegrating constraints in the empirical study of us data there is some support for the ricardian hypothesis but there are also some deviations from its predictions however the differences do not lend support to a keynesian view of budget deficits but rather to the view of expansionary fiscal contractions this can be motivated theoretically by uncertainty about future taxes in combination with prudent households

financial intermediary s choice of borrowing this research investigates several dynamic stochastic models of a bank s management problem of the term structures of its assets and liabilities a bank can either eliminate most of its interest risk with appropriate options or it can utilize its expertise in its core business and seek extraordinary profits this research concerns a bank with the latter goal in this model the bank seeks to maximize the expected present value of dividend issued subject to the federal reserve s regulatory constraint and liquidity constraint with this model we find that if the available deposits are not too high and the level of liquid assets is high enough then it is optimal for a bank to accept all of the available deposits however if the level of liquid assets is too low then a bank should not issue a dividend or to accept any deposits the properties are still valid even if the bank is not risk neutral

monetary shocks in the g 6 countries is there a puzzle les auteurs cherchent a clarifier la dynamique du mecanisme de transmission de la politique monetaire l identification des chocs de politique monetaire est au coeur de ce genre d analyse divers chercheurs ont reussi recemment a isoler de tels chocs en imposant des restrictions de suridentification a des modeles vectoriels autoregressifs var

risk sharing and industrial specialization regional and international evidence the authors provide empirical evidence that risk sharing enhances specialization in production to the best of their knowledge this well established and important theoretical proposition has not been tested before the empirical procedure is summarized as follows first the authors construct a measure of specialization in production and calculate an index of specialization for each of the european community ec and non ec oecd countries u s states canadian provinces japanese prefectures latin american countries and regions of italy spain and the united kingdom then they estimate the degree of capital market integration a measure of risk sharing within each of these groups of regions the ec countries the non ec oecd countries the united states canada japan italy spain and the united kingdom and rely on another author s estimate for latin america finally they perform a regression of the specialization index on the degree of risk sharing controlling for relevant economic variables they find a positive and significant relation between the degree of specialization of individual members of a group of countries provinces states or prefectures and the amount of risk that is shared within the group the authors perform regressions using variables such as shareholder rights and the size of the financial sector relative to gdp as instruments for the amount of inter regional risk sharing these regressions confirm that risk sharing facilitated by a favorable legal environment and a developed financial system is a direct causal determinant of industrial specialization this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the effects of parent company business on occupational credit union behaviour 1986 the effects of parent company business on occupational credit union behaviour applied economics vol 18 no 12 pp 1311 1321

the federal deposit insurance fund that didn t put a bite on u s tax payers abstract unlike the federal savings and loan insurance corporation and the bank insurance fund the national credit union share insurance fund ncusif survived the 1980s without falling into a state of accounting insolvency this paper analyzes how differences in incentive structure constrain the attractiveness of interest rate speculation and other risk taking opportunities to managers and regulators of credit unions despite these better incentives robust present value calculations establish that ncusif fell into economic insolvency during the mid 1980s besides calculating the extent of this insolvency the paper also seeks to explain why after ncusif became insolvent it could rebuild its reserves without an explicit or implicit taxpayer bailout our explanation turns on cross industry coinsurance responsibilities and the shallowness of the fund s observed insolvency relative to industry net worth we identify forces in the decisionmaking environment tending to limit the depth and duration of unresolved insolvencies at individual credit unions managerial opportunities to benefit personally from taking risks that would flow through to ncusif are constrained by difficulties in converting a credit union to stockholder form and by the intensity of proactive monitoring of troubled credit unions by sister institutions and other private coinsurers we conjecture that expanded use of coinsurance and private monitoring could reduce taxpayer loss exposure elsewhere in government deposit insurance systems