effects of a cut off in feed in tariffs on photovoltaic capacity evidence fromgermany abstract we analyze the effects of feed in tariff fit adjustments on installed photovoltaic capacity in germany we find that the current system temporarily accelerates installments and does not countervail over investment therefore we design three alternative fit regimes i constant fits ii linearly decreasing fits and iii fit adjustments related to the changes of photovoltaic panel prices simulations of installed capacities indicate that alternative adjustment mechanisms could be more appropriate to meet the government s installation target moreover we calculate the consumers burden induced by the fits and find that it might be reduced by alternative mechanisms

attitudes toward risk and the risk return paradox prospect theory explanations this study attempted to explain bowman s risk return paradox in terms of recent research in behavioral decision theory and prospect theory the research emphasized the role of reference or target

macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area country specific versus area wide information abstract this paper compares several time series methods for short run forecasting of euro wide inflation and real activity using data from 1982 to 1997 forecasts are constructed from univariate autoregressions vector autoregressions single equation models that include euro wide and us aggregates and large model methods in which forecasts are based on estimates of common dynamic factors aggregate euro wide forecasts are constructed from models that utilize only aggregate euro wide variables and by aggregating country specific models the results suggest that forecasts constructed by aggregating the country specific models are more accurate than forecasts constructed using the aggregate data

high tech firms and credit rationing abstract informational frictions between borrowers and lenders differ across classes of borrowers innovative firms undertake high risk high return projects which are likely to be little understood by financial intermediaries as a consequence they may end up allocating too large a share of funds to traditional low risk low return projects this proposition finds some support in a cross section of italian manufacturing firms using several proxies to classify firms into high tech and low tech groups and direct information on each firm s access to bank credit high tech firms are found to be more likely to be credit constrained than low tech firms the results suggest that the responsiveness of r d expenditure to cash flow found in the literature is likely due to pervasive credit constraints on innovative firms rather than to cash flow proxying for future expectations the paper also sheds light on the main factors affecting the probability of a firm being rationed in the credit market

the effect of business risk on manufacturing investment sectoral survey evidence from ireland abstract this paper analyses the results of a special sample survey on risk and investment carried out using the european union investment survey sampling frame for ireland the paper looks at decision making by large manufacturing firms located in ireland to see whether their investment decisions can be understood within the various models of risk that economists use equilibrium and disequilibrium models are examined to see what best explains the behaviour revealed by the firms responses the paper develops a categorisation of the main theoretical channels of influence from risk to investment in the light of this theory the survey replies of irish firms are used to assess the importance of the different channels of influence

uncertainty and growth of the firm using data from a survey of 1 097 small and medium sized non listed dutch firms we investigate the relation between growth of the firm and uncertainty we focus on the impact of sales uncertainty on various types of investment we find that sales uncertainty measured by the conditional variance has a mixed impact on various investment decisions we include an analysis of the relevance of financial structure and firm size on the growth uncertainty relation

product market competition and the impact of price uncertainty on investment some evidence from us manufacturing industries the authors estimate the impact of price uncertainty on investment using a panel of u s manufacturing industries pooling the data for all industries uncertainty has no impact on current investment however for industries that have low levels of seller concentration and thus are likely to be highly competitive the estimated impact is negative and statistically significant while for industries with high levels of seller concentration the impact is always small and not significantly different from zero the finding of a negative relationship between investment and price uncertainty in competitive industries is broadly consistent with models that incorporate irreversibility of capital investment copyright 1996 by blackwell publishing ltd

a comparison of autoregressive univariate forecasting procedures for macroeconomic time series the actual performance of several automated univariate autoregressive forecasting procedures applied to 150 macroeconomic time series are compared the procedures are the random walk model as a basis for comparison long autoregressions with three alternative rules for lag length selection and a long autoregression estimated by minimizing the sum of absolute deviations the sensitivity of each procedure to preliminary transformations data periodicity forecast horizon loss function employed in parameter estimation and seasonal adjustment procedures is examined the more important conclusions are that akaike s lag length selection criterion works well in a wide variety of situations the modeling of long memory components becomes important for forecast horizons of three or more periods and linear combinations of forecasts do not improve forecast quality appreciably

inventories sales uncertainty and financial strength abstract we investigate the empirical linkages between sales uncertainty and firms inventory investment behavior while controlling for firms financial strength using large panels of manufacturing firms from several european countries we find that higher sales uncertainty leads to larger stocks of inventories we also identify an indirect effect of sales uncertainty on inventory accumulation through the financial strength of firms our results provide evidence that financial strength mitigates the adverse effects of uncertainty

another perspective on the effects of inflation uncertainty this paper examines the effects of inflation uncertainty on real economic activity by utilizing a flexible dynamic multivariate framework that accommodates possible interaction between the conditional means and variances the empirical model is based on a familiar identified vector autoregressive framework modified to accommodate multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity our empirical model is preferred to the baseline var by likelihood based information criteria and it retains the important dynamics of the underlying var we find that an average shock to inflation uncertainty has tended to reduce output growth over three months by about 22 basis points

the impact of perceived expectations and uncertainty on firm investment this paper analyses the differential impact of perceived expectations and uncertainty on investment spending in small and large firms we analyse two types of investment viz aggregate investment and investment in energy saving technologies using dutch firm level data the results show that expectations and uncertainty about input and output prices and domestic demand have sub stantial but different effects on investment spending in firms of different sizes furthermore we find evidence at least for small firms that there are important differences between the effects of uncertainty about input and output variables

r d and internal finance a panel study of small firms in high tech industries since joseph schumpeter economists have argued that internal finance should be an important determinant of r d expenditures yet almost without exception previous empirical studies have not found evidence of such a relation using newly available data the authors investigate this puzzle with a panel of 179 small firms in high tech industries under each estimation strategy they employ the authors find an economically large and statistically significant relationship between r d investment and internal finance their results are consistent with the view that because of capital market imperfections the flow of internal finance is the principal determinant of the rate at which small high tech firms acquire technology through r d copyright 1994 by mit press

a genral model of dynamic labor demand this study derives and estimates a dynamic model of factor demand that includes both fixed and quadratic variable costs of adjustment using quarterly data on the employment of mechanics at seven airlines it finds that both types of adjustment costs characterize the dynamic constraints facing employers using monthly data covering production worker employment in seven manufacturing plants it shows that only fixed costs are important the apparent diversity of the underlying costs of adjustment means it is difficult to draw useful inferences from macroeconometric estimates it suggests the importance of examining broader arrays of microeconomic time series describing labor demand this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

aggregation of heterogeneous time preferences we examine an economy whose consumers have different discount factors for utility possibly not exponential we characterize the properties of efficient allocations of resources and of the shadow prices that would decentralize such allocations we show in particular that the representative agent has a decreasing discount rate when as is usually posited all of a group s members have a constant discount rate and decreasing absolute risk aversion preferences we also identify conditions that lead the representative agent to have a rate of impatience that decreases with gross domestic product per capita

strategic growth options we provide a strategic rationale for growth options under uncertainty and imperfect competition in a market with strategic competition investment confers a greater capability to take advantage of future growth opportunities this strategic advantage leads to the capture of a greater share of the market either by dissuading entry or by inducing competitors to make room for the stronger competitor as a result of this strategic effect payoffs are in a rough sense more convex than in the case of no investment in a growth option when the strategic advantage is strong increased uncertainty encourages investment in growth options higher uncertainty means more opportunity rather than simply larger risk if the strategic effect is weak the reverse is true on the other hand an increase in systematic risk discourages the acquisition of growth options our results contradict the view that volatility is a strong disincentive for investment

uncertainty and the employment dynamics of small and large businesses we examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters and regression based forecasting models for gdp growth inflation sp the impact on large businesses are generally non existent or weaker our results suggest that to truly understand the effects of uncertainty on employment dynamics we need to focus on the relatively smaller and entrepreneurial businesses we discuss implications for the framing of economic policy

the differential impact of uncertainty on investment in small and large businesses we study the impact of profit uncertainty on investment and whether or not this response is different in industries that are dominated by small firms versus those that are dominated by relatively larger firms our key findings are that the sign of the investment uncertainty relationship is negative and that the quantitative negative impact is substantially greater in industries dominated by small firms these results are robust to accounting for potential endogeneity of the uncertainty measure alternate procedures for measuring uncertainty and alternate ways of segmenting industries into small and large firm groups

capital market imperfections high tech investment and new equity financing highly variable returns asymmetric information and a lack of collateral should cause small high tech firms to have poor access to debt new equity financing has several advantages over debt but may be costly compared to internal finance we examine an unbalanced panel of over 2 400 publicly traded us high tech companies over the period 1981 98 most small high tech firms obtain little debt financing new equity financing in the form of the initial public offering is very important and permits a major increase in firm size after going public comparatively few firms make heavy use of external finacing

improving new technology venture performance under direct and indirect network externality conditions this study compares the effectiveness of five responses to external uncertainty in markets with network externalities avoidance imitation control cooperation and real options reasoning as a form of strategic flexibility our analysis of 385 new technology ventures shows that direct and indirect network externalities have opposite effects on the effectiveness of these strategies moreover under network externalities attempts to make ventures less dependent upon environmental instabilities perform differently compared to attempts to control the environment finally we show that real options reasoning does not always perform better under conditions of higher uncertainty such as uncertainty due to direct network externalities

firms investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty we investigate the effect of demand and price uncertainty on firms planned and realized investment from a panel of manufacturing firms uncertainty measures are derived from firms own expectations about demand and prices and firm s sales we find that demand uncertainty at the time of planning depresses planned and subsequent realized investment firms do not revise their plans due to demand uncertainty at the time of spending suggesting that reducing demand uncertainty will only have lagged effects on investment we do not find any effect of price uncertainty our results are consistent with the behaviour of monopolistic firms with irreversible capital

investment and uncertainty precipitating the great depression in the united states a severe collapse of fixed capital formation distinguished the onset of the great depression from other investment downturns between the world wars using a model estimated for the years 1890 2000 we show that the expected profitability of capital measured by tobin s q and the uncertainty surrounding expected profits indicated by share price volatility were the chief influences on investment levels and that heightened share price volatility played the dominant role in the crucial investment collapse in 1930 investment did not simply follow the downward course of income at the onset of the depression rather its slump helped to propel the wider collapse

prospect theory much ado about nothing prospect theory is a paradigm challenging the expected utility paradigm one of the fundamental components of prospect theory is the s shaped value function the value function is mainly justified by experimental investigation of the certainty equivalents of prospects confined either to the negative or to the positive domain but not of mixed prospects which characterize most actual investments we conduct an experimental study withmixed prospects using for the first time recently developed investment criteria called prospect stochastic dominance psd and markowitz stochastic dominance msd we reject the s shaped value function showing thatat least 62 76 of the subjects cannot be characterized by such preferences we find support for the markowitz utility function which is a reversed s shaped function exactly the opposite of the prospect theory value function it is possible that the previous results supporting the s shaped value function are distorted because the prospects had only positive or only negative outcomes presenting hypothetical situations which individuals do not usually face and which are certainly not common in financial markets

microeconomic adjustment hazards and aggregate dynamics the basic premise of this paper is that understanding aggregate dynamics requires considering that agents are heterogeneous and that they do not adjust continuously to the shocks they perceive we provide a general characterization of lumpy behavior at the microeconomic level in terms of an adjustment hazard function which relates the probability that a unit adjusts to the deviation of its state variable from its moving target we characterize rich cross sectionally dependent aggregate dynamics generated by nonconstant hazards we present an example based on u s manufacturing employment and job flows and find that increasinghazard models outperform constant hazard partial adjustment models in describing aggregate employment dynamics

exogenous oil supply shocks how big are they and how much do they matter for the u s economy abstract the paper proposes a new measure of exogenous oil supply shocks the timing the magnitude and the sign of this measure may differ greatly from current state of the art estimates it is shown that only a small fraction of the observed oil price increases during oil crisis periods can be attributed to exogenous oil production disruptions exogenous oil supply shocks cause a sharp drop of u s real gdp growth after five quarters rather than an immediate and sustained reduction in economic growth and a spike in cpi inflation after three quarters overall exogenous oil supply shocks made remarkably little difference for the evolution of the u s economy since the 1970s although they did matter for some historical episodes

investment decisions in manufacturing assessing the effects of real oil prices and their uncertainty summary we investigate the effects of real oil prices and their uncertainty on investment decisions making use of plant level data we estimate dynamic discrete choice models that allow modeling investment inaction under different assumptions related to initial conditions and unobserved heterogeneity we find that increases in real oil price changes and in real oil price uncertainty significantly reduce the likelihood of investment action in line with the predictions of irreversible investment theory we also document that investment decisions exhibit strong pure state dependence and are also significantly affected by initial conditions copyright 2012 john wiley sons ltd

aggregate employment dynamics building from microeconomic evidence this paper studies quarterly employment flows of approximately 10 000 u s manufacturing establishments the authors use establishments hours week to construct measures of the deviation between desired and actual employment and use these as the establishments main state variables the main findings are 1 microeconomic adjustment functions are nonlinear with plants adjusting disproportionately to large shortages 2 adjustments are often either large or nil suggesting the presence of nonconvexities in the adjustment cost technologies 3 the bulk of average employment fluctuations is accounted for by aggregate rather than reallocation shocks and 4 microeconomic nonlinearities amplify the impact of large aggregate shocks copyright 1997 by american economic association

causes and effects of financing constraints at the firm level this paper focuses on the empirical assessment of determinants and effects of financing constraints at the firm level using a standard model of credit rationing based on asymmetric information firm age and size are found to be factors which should influence the probability of financing constraints improving business conditions strengthen the degree of informational asymmetry a unique panel of firm data for germany including direct information on financing constraints is used for the econometric analysis firms size and improving business conditions are found to have a significant effect furthermore a significant impact on investment and r d expenditures cannot be rejected

financing the german mittelstand this paper describes how the german mittelstand or small and medium sized enterprises are financed in germany the role of the german mittelstand both in a static and in a dynamic framework is described and contrasted with that of the same size group in other leading industrialised countries we find that in general the mittelstand has played a mmore important role in germany than in other industrialised nations such as the united states or the united kingdom the traditional success of the german mittelstand is partly attributable to a system of finance that is richly layered by complementary institutions designed to meet the financial needs of both large and smaller enterprises however we find evidence that even under the german system of finance liquidity constraints exist and are greater for smaller firms the german system of finance moreover seems particularly deficient in the channeling of funds to new firm startups in the newer industries

does firm size matter evidence on the impact of liquidity constraints on firm investment behavior in germany abstract this paper examines the link between liquidity constraints and investment behavior for german firms of different sizes from 1970 to 1986 results indicate that medium sized firms appear to be more liquidity constrained in their investment behavior than either the smallest or largest firms in the study suggesting that the unique german infrastructure designed to assist the small firm has indeed succeeded in alleviating to some degree such liquidity constraints findings also support the hypothesis that the emerging competition and internationalism which characterized the german financial markets in the 1980s have been improving access to capital for some groups of firms

investments of uncertain cost abstract this paper examines irreversible investment decisions when projects take time to complete and are subject to two types of cost uncertainty the first is technical uncertainty i e uncertainty over the physical difficulty of completing a project which is only resolved as the investment proceeds the second is input cost uncertainty i e uncertainty over the prices of construction inputs or over government regulations affecting construction costs which is external to the firm these two types of uncertainty have very different effects on the investment decision a simple investment rule is derived that maximizes firm value and is used to analyze the decision to start or continue building a nuclear power plant during the 1980s

asymmetric information and the new theory of the firm financial constraints and risk behavior this paper summarizes recent developments in the theory of the firm that have arisen in examining the implications of imperfect information it shows that a wide range of these models have similar implications for the likely reaction of firms to external environmental and policy changes two significant implications are 1 that firms behave as if they are risk averse individuals maximizing a utility function of terminal wealth profitability even when the risks involved are unsystematic and 2 in many circumstances because this utility function is likely to be characterized by decreasing absolute risk aversion firms are likely to respond significantly and positively to changes in cash flow and profitability together these two phenomena are able to account for a wide range of firm behaviors that have been empirically observed both formally and informally and that are difficult to explain in terms of the traditional theory of the firm furthermore the responses of such firms to policy interventions are likely to differ significantly from those of neoclassical firms this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

input choices under price uncertainty theory shows that depending on risk preferences and technological parameters price uncertainty may alter firms choice of capital intensity this paper presents an empirical analysis of the effect of price uncertainty on firms choices of capital and labor stocks empirical results from a cross section of manufacturing industries as well as within industries over time show that greater price uncertainty increases an industry s capital labor ratio it appears that risk aversion does not dominate firms decision making these empirical findings have implications for the analysis of factor demand and productivity and capacity utilization rates

demand uncertainty and the capital labor ratio evidence from the u s manufacturing sector richard hartman 1976 and duncan m holthausen 1976 showed that firms input choices may be affected by demand uncertainty specifically uncertain demand conditions may lead to firms operating with a lower capital ratio this result has potentially important implications for the analysis of factor demand and factor productivity the author constructs measures of demand uncertainty and examines the above relationship for a sample of 125 u s manufacturing industries results show that there exists a significant negative relationship between demand uncertainty and the capital labor ratio copyright 1991 by mit press

financial fragility patterns of firms entry and exit and aggregate dynamics abstract we model the entry exit process of industrial dynamics within a theoretical framework in which the financial conditions of firms affect capital accumulation the patterns of entry and exit affect the dynamics of the distribution of firms which are differentiated by the equity ratio i e the ratio of net worth to the capital stock we perform numerical simulations to study the interactions among changes in financial fragility industrial dynamics and the macroeconomic performance

loss aversion under prospect theory a parameter free measurement agrowing body of qualitative evidence shows that loss aversion a phenomenon formalized in prospect theory can explain a variety of field and experimental data quantifications of loss aversion are however hindered by the absence of a general preference based method to elicit the utility for gains and losses simultaneously this paper proposes such a method and uses it to measure loss aversion in an experimental study without making any parametric assumptions thus it is the first to obtain a parameter free elicitation of prospect theory s utility function on the whole domain our method also provides an efficient way to elicit utility midpoints which are important in axiomatizations of utility several definitions of loss aversion have been put forward in the literature according to most definitions we find strong evidence of loss aversion at both the aggregate and the individual level the degree of loss aversion varies with the definition used which underlines the need for a commonly accepted definition of loss aversion