valuation of dynamic reactive power support services for transmission access competitive procurement of reactive power support services is rapidly becoming a reality for deregulated electricity markets it has resulted in a great need to quantify the value of reactive power support from var sources this article presents research results on the development of new concepts and schemes for equitable reactive power support valuation performance characteristics of the proposed method are determined and practical application issues are addressed the validity of the method is verified through sensitivity studies this work emphasizes that the valuation of reactive power support services should be based on their contributions to system security and stability the dynamic var is the primary concern for the reactive power valuation problem

a survey of frequency and voltage control ancillary services part i technical features this two part paper surveys the frequency and voltage control ancillary services in power systems from various parts of the world in this second part essential economic features that must be taken into account when designing markets for ancillary services are first discussed the methods adopted in eight different systems australia france germany great britain new zealand pjm spain and sweden for trading frequency and voltage control ancillary services are then compared lastly new indicators for comparing volumes and costs of ancillary services across systems are proposed and calculated for the systems included in this survey the companion paper surveys the technical features of these ancillary services

speculation under unawareness no trade theorems establish that in various trading environments investors who share a common prior will not engage in speculation as long as expected utility bayesian updating and full awareness are imposed we relax the last assumption by allowing for asymmetric unawareness and examine under which conditions speculative behaviour emerges we find that if common knowledge is assumed as in the settings of aumann 1976 and milgrom and stokey 1982 unawareness cannot generate speculation this is not true however in settings where no common knowledge is assumed such as speculation in equilibrium geanakoplos 1989 and betting that is always beneficial morris 1994 unless stronger conditions on awareness are imposed

calculation of the elastic demand curve for a day ahead secondary reserve market the level of secondary reserve needed in a power system is traditionally settled by system operators according to engineering criteria this paper proposes a novel methodology to determine the optimum level of secondary reserve based on both engineering and economic criteria within the proposed approach a price elastic quantity demand curve for the secondary reserve is built this approach assumes that the provision of secondary reserve is made under a competitive market in this market the supply curve that collects the bids from generators providing secondary reserve is matched with the calculated elastic demand cost curve the cross of the supply and demand curves determines the optimal level of secondary reserve and the price for provision of the service the developed approach is illustrated with a case study based on the current day ahead secondary reserve market in spain

exploring the effect of producer services agglomeration on china s energy efficiency under environmental constraints abstract this paper makes an empirical analysis of the effect of producer services agglomeration on china s energy efficiency under environmental constraints eee by using spatial durbin model the results show that at the national level the urbanization agglomeration of producer services not only improves the local eee significantly but also has an obvious spatial spillover effect on the surrounding regions while the localization agglomeration of producer services is only beneficial to the improvement of the local eee from the regional perspective both the urbanization and localization agglomeration of producer services show significant promotion effect and spatial spillover effect on china s eee in the east region and the promotion effect of the urbanization agglomeration of producer services is greater while the improvement of eee in the central and west regions mainly depend on the mar externality of producer services agglomeration and its spatial spillover effects are not obvious moreover the above empirical results exhibit strong robustness based on these empirical findings this paper puts forward some specific suggestions for improving china s eee so as to achieve the multi win of economic growth energy conservation and environmental protection the study contributes to improving the environmental quality and speeding up the construction of beautiful china

uncertainty and risk in financial markets this paper considers a general equilibrium model in which the distinction between uncertainty and risk is formalized by assuming agents have incomplete preferences over statecontingent consumption bundles as in bewley 1986 without completeness individual decision making depends on a set of probability distributions over the state space a bundle is preferred to another if and only if it has larger expected utility for all probabilities in this set when preferences are complete this set is a singleton and the model reduces to standard expected utility in this setting we characterize pareto optima and equilibria and show that the presence of uncertainty generates robust indeterminacies in equilibrium prices and allocations for any specification of initial endowments we derive comparative statics results linking the degree of uncertainty with changes in equilibria despite the presence of robust indeterminacies we show that equilibrium prices and allocations vary continuously with underlying fundamentals equilibria in a standard risk economy are thus robust to adding small degrees of uncertainty finally we give conditions under which some assets are not traded due to uncertainty aversion

advanced pricing in electrical systems i theory this paper sets forth a comprehensive theory for the real time pricing of electricity that includes selected ancillary services and extends the theory to incorporate constraints on power quality and environment impact that often influence the operation of a power system this paper is part i of a two paper set it sets forth the mathematical development of the extended model for real time pricing the formulation is novel in that it combines the dynamic equations for load frequency control with the static equations of a constrained optimal power flow part ii derives optimal nodal specific real time prices for both real and reactive power the prices derived include additive premia or opportunity costs reflecting the effects of voltage regulation maintenance of generation and transmission reserves regulation of frequency and tie line flows removal and or control of power harmonics and others

knightian uncertainty and moral hazard abstract this paper presents a principal agent model in which the agent has imprecise beliefs we model this situation formally by assuming the agent s preferences are incomplete as in bewley 1986 2 in this setting incentives must be robust to knightian uncertainty we study the implications of robustness for the form of the resulting optimal contracts we give conditions under which there is a unique optimal contract and show that it must have a simple flat payment plus bonus structure that is output levels are divided into two sets and the optimal contract pays the same wage for all output levels in each set we derive this result for the case in which the agent s utility function is linear and then show it also holds if this utility function has some limited curvature

calculating short run marginal costs of active and reactive power production proper pricing of active and reactive power is an important issue for economic and secure operations of power systems in an open transmission access ota environment this paper presents a flexible formulation for this purpose the proposed formulation identifies an important price component for reactive power which is fundamentally different from those existing in the literature this makes the pricing of reactive power more understandable the proposed approach is efficient for real time application and allows for carrying out active and reactive power pricing simultaneously or independently through the use of the decoupled optimal power flow formulation price signals derived from this approach are quite meaningful from an engineering point of view in addition the proposed approach can be easily extended to evaluate nugs and wheeling transactions the paper includes test results on the 30 and 118 bus ieee standard systems

financial complexity and trade what are the implications on trading activity if investors are not sophisticated enough to understand and evaluate trades that have a complex payoff structure can frictions generated by this type of financial complexity be so severe that they lead to a complete market freeze like that of the recent financial crisis starting from an allocation that is not pareto optimal we find that whether complexity impedes trade depends on how investors perceive risk and uncertainty for smooth convex preferences such as subjective expected utility complexity cannot halt trade even in the extreme case where each investor is so unsophisticated that he can only trade up to one arrow debreu security without being able to combine two or more in order to construct a complex trade however for non smooth preferences which allow for kinked indifference curves such as maxmin expected utility complexity can completely shut down trade

first order and second order ambiguity aversion different models of uncertainty aversion imply strikingly different economic behavior the key to understanding these differences lies in the dichotomy between first order and second order ambiguity aversion which i define here my definition and its characterization are independent of specific representations of decisions under uncertainty i show that with second order ambiguity aversion a positive exposure to ambiguity is optimal if and only if there is a subjective belief such that the act s expected outcome is positive with first order ambiguity aversion zero exposure to ambiguity can be optimal examples in finance insurance and contracting demonstrate the economic relevance of this dichotomy this paper was accepted by han bleichrodt decision analysis

pareto optima and equilibria when preferences are incompletely known an exchange economy in which agents have convex incomplete preferences defined by families of concave utility functions is considered sufficient conditions for the set of efficient allocations and equilibria to coincide with the set of efficient allocations and equilibria that result when each agent has a utility in her family are provided welfare theorems in an incomplete preferences framework therefore hold under these conditions and efficient allocations and equilibria are characterized by first order conditions

intertemporal equilibria with knightian uncertainty we study a dynamic and infinite dimensional model with incomplete multiple prior preferences in interior efficient allocations agents share a common risk adjusted prior and subjective interest rate interior efficient allocations and equilibria coincide with those of economies with subjective expected utility and priors from the agents multiple prior sets a specific model with neither risk nor uncertainty at the aggregate level is considered risk is always fully insured for small levels of ambiguity there exists an equilibrium with inertia where agents also insure fully against knightian uncertainty when the level of ambiguity exceeds a critical threshold full insurance no longer prevails and there exist equilibria with inertia where agents do not insure against uncertainty at all we also show that equilibria with inertia are indeterminate

non parametric productivity analysis with undesirable outputs an application to the canadian pulp and paper industry this article extends the chavas cox approach to non parametric analysis by incorporating undesirable outputs to provide a more complete representation of the production technology inner and outer non parametric technology bounds are constructed the methods are illustrated with application to time series data for the canadian pulp and paper industry conventional measures that ignore changes in pollutant outputs underestimate true productivity growth further there is a large gap between estimates generated with reference to inner and outer bounds to the technology suggesting that researchers need to be aware of the limitations of results derived from analyses relying only on dea methods copyright 2001 oxford university press

interim efficient allocations under uncertainty abstract this paper considers an exchange economy under uncertainty with asymmetric information uncertainty is represented by multiple priors and posteriors of agents who have either bewley s incomplete preferences or gilboa schmeidler s maximin expected utility preferences the main results characterize interim efficient allocations under uncertainty that is they provide conditions on the sets of posteriors thus implicitly on the way how agents update the sets of priors for non existence of a trade which makes all agents better off at any realization of private information for agents with the incomplete preferences the condition is necessary and sufficient but for agents with the maximin expected utility preferences the condition is sufficient only a couple of necessary conditions for the latter case are provided

a generalization of pratt arrow measure to nonexpected utility preferences and inseparable probability and utility the pratt arrow measure of local risk aversion is generalized for then dimensional state preference model of choice under uncertainty in which the decision maker may have inseparable subjective probabilities and utilities unobservable stochastic prior wealth and or smooth nonexpected utility preferences local risk aversion is measured by the matrix of derivatives of the decision maker s risk neutral probabilities without reference to true subjective probabilities or riskless wealth positions and comparative risk aversion is measured without requiring agreement on true probabilities risk neutral probabilities and their derivatives are shown to be sufficient statistics for approximately optimal investment and financing decisions in complete markets for contingent claims

a theory of subjective compound lotteries abstract we develop a savage type model of choice under uncertainty in which agents identify uncertain prospects with subjective compound lotteries our theory permits issue preference that is agents may not be indifferent among gambles that yield the same probability distribution if they depend on different issues hence we establish subjective foundations for the anscombe aumann framework and other models with two different types of probabilities we define second order risk as risk that resolves in the first stage of the compound lottery and show that uncertainty aversion implies aversion to second order risk which implies issue preference and behavior consistent with the ellsberg paradox

productivity growth increasing income inequality and social insurance the case of china abstract this paper builds a simple dynamic general equilibrium model to mimic two striking stylized facts observed in china s reform productivity growth contributes significantly to output growth and income inequality increases dramatically over time calibration exercises broadly matches the data the economic growth rate the aggregate productivity and income inequality increase as the coverage of the social insurance decreases perfect insurance is shown to be sub optimal with empirically plausible parameters the level of income inequality under different degrees of social insurance can be very similar even though their welfare implications are not social insurance cannot effectively reduce inequalities

sharing risk and ambiguity we study the market implications of ambiguity in common models we show that generic determinacy is a robust feature in general equilibrium models that allow a distinction between ambiguity and risk

a market approach to long term security of supply the problem of ensuring that there is enough generation capacity to meet future demand has been an issue in market design since the beginning of the deregulation process although ideally the market itself should be enough to provide adequate investment incentives there are several factors that prevent this result from being achieved and some actual markets have already experienced problems related with a lack of generation capacity a regulatory framework to address this question is presented the procedure is based on an organized market where reliability contracts based on financial call options are auctioned so both their price and their allocation among the different plants are determined through competitive mechanisms this results in a stabilization of the income of the generators and provides a clear incentive for new generation investment with a minimum of regulatory intervention additionally the method represents a market compatible mechanism to hedge demand from the occurrence of high market prices

overlapping risk adjusted sets of priors and the existence of efficient allocations and equilibria with short selling the theory of existence of equilibrium with short selling is reconsidered under risk and ambiguity modelled by risk averse variational preferences no arbitrage conditions are given in terms of risk adjusted priors a sufficient condition for existence of efficient allocations is the overlapping of the interiors of the risk adjusted sets of priors or the inexistence of mutually compatible trades with non negative expectation with respect to any risk adjusted prior these conditions are necessary when agents are not risk neutral at extreme levels of wealths it is shown that the more uncertainty averse or risk averse the agents the more likely are efficient allocations and equilibria to exist

uncertainty risk neutral measures and security price booms and crashes abstract this paper provides a general analysis of intertemporal utility based on the multiple priors model of aversion to knightian uncertainty then the existence of equilibrium is proven for a representative agent security market model it is shown that uncertainty aversion can invalidate the existence of a risk neutral measure representation for prices in addition an example suggests an intriguing link between uncertainty aversion and the possibility of abrupt changes in security prices the analysis relies heavily on a fubini type theorem for analytic functions due to dellacherie and meyer probabilities and potential c north holland new york 1988 journal of economic literature classification numbers g12 d81 d90

a comparative study on the production efficiencies of china s oil companies a true fixed effect model considering the unobserved heterogeneity abstract with the promotion of one belt one road obor initiative china s oil companies have speeded up the pace of going global strategy to expand their business internationally the efficiency problems of china national petroleum corporation cnpc and sinopec group which determine the international competitiveness have drawn ever increasing attention from both the general public and from decision makers the wide variation in cultural economic and institutional characteristics of different international oil companies may result in a large amount of unobserved heterogeneity distinguishing the time invariant unobserved heterogeneity from time variant inefficiency could avoid heterogeneity bias and thus ensure consistent efficiency estimates considering that the production efficiencies of the sample oil companies are influenced by various heterogeneous factors this paper evaluates the production efficiencies of the world s 10 biggest oil companies during 2003 2013 based on the stochastic frontier analysis sfa method and the true fixed effect tfe model results suggest that 1 estimation techniques that do not account for unobserved heterogeneity would produce biased efficiency estimates 2 compared with other oil companies the production efficiencies of cnpc and sinopec group were relatively improved after the global financial crisis 3 china s state owned oil companies should be further enhanced with the ability of internationalization management

a theory of anticipated utility abstract a new theory of cardinal utility with an associated set of axioms is presented it is a generalization of the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability

a reactive power capacity market using annual auctions this paper presents a new approach to design reactive power capacity markets under this approach annual auctions to procure reactive power capacity are conducted by the system operator two products are defined reactive power generation and absorption capacity which can be supplied by different independent var sources such as generators svcs capacitor banks and shunt reactors reactive power capacity is allocated using an optimization algorithm that matches capacity bids and system reactive power needs for peak and low demand hours the reactive power requirements are calculated taking into account system contingencies and the dynamic performance of the var sources under these situations another key proposal of the paper is the distribution of costs of the reactive power capacity market to the agents responsible for contingencies according to the use of the service by each market participant this remuneration approach provides fair and efficient economic signals to all market participants the applicability of the approach is illustrated with two case studies

incomplete preferences and equilibrium in contingent markets this paper shows that betting or speculative trading between agents with incomplete preferences is likely to occur if agents have access to convex choice sets this contrasts sharply with endowment economy models where preference incompleteness often hinders betting speculative trading or mutually beneficial insurance arrangements our results imply that decision makers with identical tastes and identical feasible sets will potentially gain from speculative trade for generic status quo allocations we also develop a framework for endogenizing the status quo allocations of decision makers that are treated exogenously in the existing literature finally we provide a tractable differential representation of status quo allocations equilibria and conditions where speculative trade may or may not emerge

asset demands without the independence axiom an important application of the theory of choice under uncertainty is to asset markets and an important property in these markets is a preference for portfolio diversification if an investor is an expected utility maximizer then s he is risk averse if and only if s he exhibits a preference for diversification this paper examines the relationship between risk aversion and portfolio diversification when preferences over probability distributions of wealth do not have an expected utility representation

dual approaches to the analysis of risk aversion we present a dual formulation of choice under uncertainty based on a few simple assumptions about preferences it is shown that the additive separability restriction on preferences key to expected utility theory can be dropped with little loss of analytic power for a broad class of choice problems dual risk premiums are characterized and it is shown that placing various invariance restrictions on them leads naturally to generalizations of the concepts of cara crra and lrt familiar from expected utility theory each of these generalizations conforms to a notion of homotheticity

interim efficiency with meu preferences abstract recently kajii and ui 2009 17 proposed to characterize interim efficient allocations in an exchange economy under asymmetric information when uncertainty is represented by multiple posteriors when agents have bewley s incomplete preferences kajii and ui 2009 17 proposed a necessary and sufficient condition on the set of posteriors however when agents have gilboa schmeidler s maxmin expected utility preferences they only propose a sufficient condition the objective of this paper is to complete kajii and ui s work by proposing a necessary and sufficient condition for interim efficiency for various models of ambiguity aversion and in particular maxmin expected utility our proof is based on a direct application of some results proposed by rigotti shannon and stralecki 2008 24

examining the drivers of total factor productivity change with an illustrative example of 14 eu countries abstract based on the different models developed by korhonen and luptacik korhonen p luptacik m 2004 eco efficiency analysis of power plants an extension of data envelopment analysis european journal of operational research 154 437 46 this contribution centers on the development of an intertemporal comparison in order to analyze eco efficiency change over time in this setup two model variants by korhonen and luptacik 2004 are used in order to provide deeper insights concerning the driving forces for the change in the eco efficiency which bias in technical change can be observed is it more input saving or pollution reducing for illustration purposes the proposed approach is used to analyze the performance of 14 countries of the european union for the period 1995 2004 an average eco productivity growth of 22 is observed the estimated contribution of improved use of input is 20 and that of reduced relation of greenhouse gas emissions is 23 therefore it is concluded that on average the eco productivity growth is more driven by improved environmental conditions

survival with ambiguity we analyze a market populated by expected utility maximizers and smooth ambiguity averse consumers we study conditions under which ambiguity averse consumers survive and affect prices in the limit if ambiguity vanishes with time or if the economy exhibits no aggregate risk ambiguity averse consumers survive but have no long run impact on prices in both scenarios ambiguity averse consumers are fully insured against ambiguity in equilibrium and thus behave as expected utility maximizers with correct beliefs if ambiguity averse consumers are not fully insured against ambiguity their behavior mimics expected utility maximizers with wrong beliefs and a stochastic discount factor which might be consistently higher or lower than their actual discount factor we use this insight to analyze a markov economy with large persistent ambiguity consumers with decreasing absolute ambiguity aversion whose prudence with respect to ambiguity exceeds twice their absolute ambiguity aversion a s survive in the presence of expected utility maximizers with correct beliefs if the economy further exhibits aggregate risk they drive the expected utility maximizers out of the market and determine prices in the limit in contrast consumers with increasing or constant absolute ambiguity aversion only survive in the absence of aggregate risk and have no impact on limit prices

a more robust definition of subjective probability the goal of choice theoretic derivations of subjective probability is to separate a decisionmaker s underlying beliefs subjective probabilities of events from their preferences attitudes toward risk classical derivations have all relied upon some form of the marschak samuelson independence axiom or the savage sure thing principle which imply that preferences over lotteries conform to the expected utility hypothesis this paper presents a choice theoretic derivation of subjective probability in a savage type setting of purely subjective uncertainty which neither assumes nor implies that the decisionmaker s preferences over lotteries necessarily conform to the expected utility hypothesis copyright 1992 by the econometric society

food scares in an uncertain world we develop a model that explains the stylized facts of food scares an immediate and sharp decline in consumption of the product followed by a slow and frequently partial recovery of demand after the scare passes the model is used in conjunction with the natural experiment afforded by the mad cow crisis to elicit empirical information on decision makers perception of uncertainty our theoretical and quantitative results suggest that observed behavior is consistent with sharp changes in beliefs and the presence of knightian uncertainty as measured by the degree of imprecision in our model

risk aversion in the theory of expected utility with rank dependent probabilities expected utility with rank dependent probability theory is a model of decision making under risk where the preference relations on the set of probability distributions is represented by the mathematical expectation of a utility function with respect to a transformation of the probability distributions on the set of outcomes this paper defines based on g teaux differentiability measures of risk aversion for such preferences which characterize the relation more risk averse and applies these measures to the analysis of unconditional and conditional portfolio choice problems

maxmin expected utility over savage acts with a set of priors abstract this paper provides an axiomatic foundation for a maxmin expected utility over a set of priors mmeu decision rule in an environment where the elements of choice are savage acts this characterization complements the original axiomatization of mmeu developed in a lottery acts or anscombe aumann framework by i gilboa and d schmeidler 1989 j math econ 18 141 153 mmeu preferences are of interest primarily because they provide a natural and tractable way of modeling decision makers who display an aversion to uncertainty or ambiguity the novel axioms are formulated using standard sequence techniques which allow cardinal properties of utility to be expressed directly through preferences journal of economic literature classification number d81

uncertainty efficiency and incentive compatibility ambiguity solves the conflict between efficiency and incentive compatibility abstract a fundamental result of modern economics is the conflict between efficiency and incentive compatibility that is the fact that some pareto optimal efficient allocations are not incentive compatible this conflict has generated a huge literature which almost always assumes that individuals are expected utility maximizers what happens if they have other kind of preferences is there any preference where this conflict does not exist can we characterize those preferences we show that in an economy where individuals have complete transitive continuous and monotonic preferences every efficient allocation is incentive compatible if and only if individuals have maximin preferences

time to change what to sow risk preferences and technology adoption decisions of cotton farmers in china this paper examines the role of individual risk attitudes in the decision to adopt a new form of agricultural biotechnology in china i conducted a survey and a field experiment to elicit the risk preferences of chinese farmers who faced the decision of whether to adopt genetically modified bt cotton a decade ago in my analysis i expand the measurement of risk preferences beyond expected utility theory to incorporate prospect theory i find that farmers who are more risk averse or more loss averse adopt bt cotton later farmers who overweight small probabilities adopt bt cotton earlier

optimism and pessimism in games this paper considers the impact of ambiguity in strategic situations it extends the earlier literature by allowing for optimistic responses to ambiguity ambiguity is modelled by ceu preferences we propose a new solution concept for players who may express ambiguitypreference then we study comparative statics of changes in ambiguity attitude in games with strategic complements this gives a precise statement of the impact of ambiguity on economic behaviour

risk sharing in the small and in the large abstract this paper analyzes risk sharing in economies with no aggregate uncertainty when agents have non convex preferences in particular agents need not be globally risk averse or uncertainty averse in the sense of schmeidler 1989 we identify a behavioral condition under which betting is inefficient i e every pareto efficient allocation provides full insurance and conversely if and only if agents supporting probabilities defined as in rigotti et al 2008 have a non empty intersection our condition is consistent with empirical and experimental evidence documenting violations of convexity in either outcomes or utilities our results show that the connection between speculative betting and inconsistent beliefs does not depend upon global notions of risk or ambiguity aversion

decision theory under ambiguity we review recent advances in the field of decision making under uncertainty or ambiguity we start with a presentation of the general approach to a decision problem under uncertainty as well as the standard bayesian treatment and issues with this treatment we present more general approaches choquet expected utility maximin expected utility smooth ambiguity and so forth that have been developed in the literature under the name of models of ambiguity sensitive preferences we draw a distinction between fully subjective models and models incorporating explicitly some information we review definitions and characterizations of ambiguity aversion in these models we mention the challenges posed by some of the models presented we end with a review of part of the experimental literature and applications of these models to economic settings

subjective beliefs and ex ante trade we study a definition of subjective beliefs applicable to preferences that allow for the perception of ambiguity and provide a characterization of such beliefs in terms of market behavior using this definition we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the efficiency of ex ante trade and show that these conditions follow from the fundamental welfare theorems when aggregate uncertainty is absent our results show that full insurance is efficient if and only if agents share some common subjective beliefs our results hold for a general class of convex preferences which contains many functional forms used in applications involving ambiguity and ambiguity aversion we show how our results can be articulated in the language of these functional forms confirming results existing in the literature generating new results and providing a useful tool for applications

financial market structures revealed by pricing rules efficient complete markets are prevalent abstract it is well known that when an arbitrage free financial market is incomplete or has tradable financial assets with frictions there must be multiple risk neutral probability measures the main motivation for the present study is to elucidate what type of market structure usually emerges from pricing rules first we obtain that finitely generated pricing rules characterized by polytopes of probabilities capture the class of all finite arbitrage free financial markets that are potentially incomplete or subject to frictions affecting tradable assets next we provide a novel characterization of efficient securities and introduce related notions of market completeness that underlies pricing rules our main result shows that the class of efficient complete markets with bid ask spreads is the prevalent case revealed by finitely generated pricing rules

evaluating the method of total factor productivity growth and analysis of its influencing factors during the economic transitional period in china abstract this paper proposes a method for the evaluation of total factor productivity tfp based on the super efficiency data envelopment analysis dea model and the malmquist luenberger index under china s constraints for carbon emissions data sampled from eight cities in two large areas in anhui province in central china namely the wan jiang region and the northern anhui region from 2001 to 2009 were cited as the sample for the analysis of the low carbon tfp index an analysis of the low carbon index changes and composition during the period of economic transformation was also conducted the empirical analysis results indicate that the technical efficiency change has a lower effect on the progress of total factor productivity and that technological progress exerts the dominant force in total factor productivity growth this study also performed hausman tests of the factors influencing the total factor productivity and suggested advances in certain policies accordingly

a definition of uncertainty aversion a definition of uncertainty or ambiguity aversion is proposed it is argued that the definition is well suited to modelling within the savage as opposed to anscombe and aumann domain of acts the defined property of uncertainty aversion has intuitive empirical content behaves well in specific models of preference multiple priors and choquet expected utility and is tractable tractability is established through use of a novel notion of differentiability for utility functions called eventwise differentiability

ambiguity aversion in the long run to disagree we must also agree abstract we consider an economy populated by smooth ambiguity averse agents with complete markets of securities contingent to economic scenarios where bankruptcy is permitted but there is a penalty for it we show that if agents posterior belief reductions given by their average probabilistic beliefs do not become homogeneous then an equilibrium does not exist it is worth noting that our main result does not imply any convergence of ambiguity perception or even the attitudes towards it in this way complete markets with default and punishment allow for ambiguity aversion in the long run and the agents can disagree on their ambiguity perception but they must agree on their expected beliefs

when does aggregation reduce risk aversion we study the problem of risk sharing within a household or syndicate a household shares risky prospects using a social welfare functional we characterize the social welfare functionals such that the household is collectively less risk averse than each member and satisfies the pareto principle and an invariance axiom we single out the sum of certainty equivalents as the unique member of this family which is quasiconcave over riskless allocations

population economic growth and regional environmental inefficiency evidence from u s states we apply a conditional directional distance function allowing multiple exogenous factors to measure environmental performance we evaluate the air pollution performance levels of u s states for the years 1998 and 2008 states environmental inefficiency is determined by population size and gdp per capita gdppc the overall results reveal that there is much variation in environmental inefficiencies among the u s states a second stage nonparametric analysis indicates a nonlinear relationship between states population size gdppc levels and states environmental inefficiency levels our results indicate that environmental inefficiency on the whole decreases with increased population and income per capita but there are limits to this improvement and at high income and population levels the tendency may reverse

localized reactive power markets using the concept of voltage control areas in this paper we present the design of a localized competitive market for reactive power ancillary services at the level of individual voltage control areas the concept of electrical distance has been used to identify the different voltage control areas within a power system the proposed reactive power market is settled on uniform price auction using a modified optimal power flow model uniform prices for various components of reactive power service are obtained for each voltage control area in the study cases described in the paper we examine whether such a localized reactive power market is more desirable than a common system wide reactive power market

efficient allocations under ambiguity abstract important implications of the expected utility hypothesis and risk aversion are that if agents have the same probability belief then consumption plans in every efficient allocation of resources under uncertainty are comonotone with the aggregate endowment and if their beliefs are concordant then the consumption plans are measurable with respect to the aggregate endowment we study these two properties of efficient allocations for models of preferences that exhibit ambiguity aversion using the concept of conditional beliefs which we introduce in this paper we provide characterizations of such conditional beliefs for the standard models of preferences used in applications

opf for reactive pricing studies on the ngc system retail transmission services like those being provided by the national grid company ngc in england and wales pose new challenges for the pricing of reactive power supply a reactive power market approach has been proposed by ngc and continues to be evaluated such an approach includes a novel requirement for transmission constrained economic dispatch of var a problem in the security constrained optimal power flow opf class the problem formulations handled by the opf package in use could not accommodate ngc s requirements this paper describes the reactive pricing problem being addressed the modeling requirements and the resulting extensions made to the opf formulation and package it discusses the test results obtained to date on the ngc system