the demand for residential electricity new evidence on time varying elasticities this study employs a generalized functional form to examine demand for residential electiricity the appropriatenes of the conventional double log and linear forms are tested time varying elasicities are estimated major findings are summarized as follows 1 the double log and linear forms can be rejected at the 0 05 and 0 01 levels respectively 2 long run own price elasticities declined in absolute value consistently from 2 13 to 1 19 during the period 1950 87 3 long run income elasticities also decreased from 1 29 to 0 97 during the same period and 4 long run corss price elasticities with respect to the price of natural gas dropped form 0 40 to 0 29 these results may be heplful to decision makers in determining the change in total revenues owning to the change in prices pricing strategies the effectiveness of energy conservation programmes the effect of rising real income on the demand for residential electricity and future demand

determinants of household electricity demand a two stage probit approach considerable interest on the part of policy makers in both the public and private sectors has spawned numerous studies of the determinants of residential electricity demand as a result of increased attention given to the possibility of adjusting household electricity consumption patterns through price manipulation as in the various peak load pricing experiments particular emphasis has been placed on obtaining an accurate estimate of the price elasticity of demand unfortunately ols applied to the conventional linear or log linear demand specification is biased and inconsistent when the sample includes households that face declining block rate schedules the inconsistency results from the fact that in the presence of declining block rates observed marginal price is a stochastic regressor that is negatively correlated with the regression error term some researchers have suggested that consistent ols estimation can be achieved by merely respecifying the demand equation to include particular combinations of marginal price average price rate of decline of the price schedule and real income corrected for intra marginal price differences 1 7 8 others realizing the futility of such an approach have developed and applied instrumental variable iv techniques 4 6 11 these iv methods however all involve an artificial linearization of the rate schedule which produces spurious negative correlation between the price variable and the random error term as a result such iv methods tend to overcompensate for actual correlation consequently the iv estimated coefficients of the various demand determinants will exhibit biases opposite in sign to those of their ols counterparts for example in the presence of declining block rates ols tends to overestimate the price elasticity of demand in absolute value while iv methods produce elasticity estimates that are downward biased a two stage probit tsp method developed by terza and welch 10 is not subject to the bias that plagues iv methods because tsp does not require a linear approximation to the rate schedule instead the discrete and discontinuous nature of household responses to declining block pricing is captured by incorporating an ordinal probit model that is based on a theory of consumer choice in the present paper a linear electricity demand model is estimated using the tsp ols and iv methods to demonstrate the effectiveness of the tsp method

employment policies wage formation and trade union behavior in a small open economy a model of trade union determined wages is developed which provides an explanation of underemployment based on optimizing behavior it is shown that fiscal policy will in general affect employment under perfect foresight and immediate wage flexibility future consequences of short run stabilization policies are discussed ratchet effects with respect to government expenditure and game theoretic interdependence between government and trade union behavior are emphasized if the trade union takes short run policy measures in order to increase employment as an indication of an employment stabilization rule the future behavior of the trade union changes and the result may be a decrease in long run employment

the employment effects of shorter working hours an application to japanese data this paper applies a simple model of hours employment and earnings to japanese manufacturing data and shows that a reduction in the number of standard hours is likely to increase overtime and reduce employment these findings are in line with recent theoretical developments and in contrast to the predictions of traditional analysis of hours and employment adjustment this difference is shown to be due to the treatment of the wage rate copyright 1989 by the london school of economics and political science

has work sharing worked in germany industry by industry basis in an attempt to raise employment whether this work sharing works is theoretically ambiguous i exploit the cross industry variation in standard hours reductions to examine their impact on actual hours worked wages and employment analysis of industry level data suggests that work sharing may have reduced employment in the period 1984 1994 using individual data from the german socio economic panel i substantiate the union claim of full wage compensation the hourly wage rose enough to offset the decline in actual hours worked

are effort bargaining models consistent with the facts an assessment of the early 1980s recent research has attempted to explain the impact of changes in union bargaining of the uk productivity miracle of the 1980s a central part of these explaniations is the concept of effort or working conditions as an observable component of negotiations after reviewing the evidence this paper shiows that in models where effort and wages are jointly negotiated in an environmenit of weakenitig union power a positive effort wage association as observed in the early 1980s in the uk emerges only unider quite special assumptions we show that the stylized facts are better explained by a model where effort and wages are bargained over sequentially

the employment effects of a shorter working week labor organizations currently argue that reducing the standard working week will help lower the high unemployment of the 1980s opponents maintai n that this will increase labor costs and therefore not alleviate un employment this paper analyzes the employment effects of a cut in ho urs using the monopoly union and efficient bargaining models of the union and firm under various developments of the models the results are quite consistent a reduction in hours has employment effects th at are at best ambiguous and very often negative a puzzle remains as to why trade unions are pressing for shorter hours copyright 1987 by the review of economic studies limited

working time and labour demand in finnish manufacturing short run and long run effects the effect of changes in the standard working time on employment and average hours is studied using pooled data from five finnish manufacturing industries the model is an error correction model which makes it possible to separate short run reductions in standard hours increase employment there is evidence that the long run effect of working time on employment has changed over time in the 1970s reductions in hours have had positive long run employment effects but in the 1980s the positive short run impact has been neutralized in the long run changes in standard hours do not influence the utilization rate of labour which is defined as the ratio of overtime hours to standard hours in the short run the utilization rate is influenced by output changes

overtime labor employment frictions and the new keynesian phillips curve abstract this paper presents a new keynesian nk model that is extended to differentiate between straight time and overtime work the model proposes that the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc should be estimated with marginal cost measured in terms of overtime labor the resulting coefficient estimates are in accordance with theory and statistically significant for the hybrid nkpc which allows for backward looking price setters but not for the purely forward looking nkpc in the hybrid model backward looking behavior is found to be predominant the paper also shows that the incorporation of employment frictions predetermined employment and convex adjustment costs in nk models helps reconcile the frequent price changes found in the microdata with the degree of sluggishness in inflation adjustment to output changes at the macro level

wages and employment under trade unionism microeconomic models and macroeconomic applications the first part of this paper is a critical survey of microeconomic research into behavioural models of trade unionism although certain formulations of union objectives and models of wage and employment determination in unionized markets have found favor with economists unfortunately only a little is known about their empirical relevance the second part of this paper deals with the daunting problems of applying these models at the macroeconomic level one such model is estimated with data from sweden s mining and manufacturing sector from 1968 to 1982

is incomes policy the answer to unemployment in western europe unemployment has remained obstinately high ever since 1975 what has prevented governments from reducing it the answer is simple if unemployment were reduced by normal methods inflation would rise it follows that the only way to cut the long run level of unemployment is to find some other way of controlling inflation no such device will be costless but if we could find any method that was less costly than unemployment we ought to adopt it maurice chevalier was asked in later life what he thought of old age it s not so bad he replied when you consider the alternative that was a true economist talking and it is also the spirit in which i shall approach the unhappy choices open to us my argument will proceed roughly as follows first imagine that a costless incomes policy is available then most people would probably agree that if inflation was too high a temporary incomes policy would be a good idea in order to get inflation down but what then when it was down we would still be left with far too high an unemployment rate only a permanent incomes policy can substantially reduce the non inflationary level of unemployment however against these benefits have to be set the costs of an incomes policy a conventional incomes policy which permanently suspended collective bargaining would be out of the question in a free society so we have to have an incomes policy that works by incentive rather than by regulation the best thing would be a tax on wage increases levied on employers and proportional to wage increases above a prescribed norm i shall spend some time discussing this tax using various different models of wage setting to explain how it would have its effect and finally i shall try producing a first draft of the operator s manual

decision making under uncertainty and the evolution of interdependent preferences abstract this paper finds support for the evolution of interdependent preferences under natural selection from a perhaps surprising source decision making under uncertainty individuals choose from sets of risky alternatives the lotteries may involve either idiosyncratic risk or aggregate uncertainty or both robson j econ theory 68 1996 397 424 gives the evaluation criterion for lotteries that maximizes reproductive value and shows that it does not satisfy the expected utility theorem cooper and kaplan j theoret biol 94 1982 135 151 have demonstrated that when lotteries are aggregate the optimal decision rule involves randomization this paper reexamines robson s evaluation criterion using it to solve for the optimal amount of randomization the solution is characterized and an interpretation is offered that links maximizing reproductive value to maximizing expected relative offspring it is shown that when agents preferences arise from their own offspring relative to the average within the population a game is constructed out of the choice of lotteries and that the unique nash equilibrium distribution of actions maximizes reproductive value journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d71 d81

the structure of labor costs with overtime work in u s jobs the author analyzes employment contract and labor demand models of the fair labor standards act overtime pay regulation to determine their effects on employers labor costs using national compensation survey data to obtain a representative sample of u s private industry jobs he assesses each model s ability to predict either the adjustment of wage rates if overtime is warranted the employment contract model or the probability of using overtime to meet labor demands the labor demand model using quasi fixed employment costs as independent variables allows for a better accounting of labor demand he finds that lower wages go hand in hand with jobs requiring more overtime work which indicates that overtime pay regulation influences the structure of compensation

the effects of work sharing on employment and overtime in finnish manufacturing 1960 87 comparison of three alternative models the purpose of this paper is to develop a model of the determination of hours and employment is developed and compared with the models of brunello 1989 and hart and wilson 1988 the models are estimated by using annual and quarterly data from the finnish manufacturing sector according to the results the actual hours closely follow the standard hours this implies that the interior solutions in hours determination suggested by compared models are not relevant instead firms try to avoid overtime as a consequence work sharing through shorter hours will be effective

the cyclical behavior of the price cost markup countercyclical markups constitute the key transmission mechanism for monetary and other demand shocks in new keynesian models this paper tests the foundation of those models by studying the cyclical properties of the markup of price over marginal cost the first part of the paper studies markups in the aggregate economy and the manufacturing sector we use bils s 1987 insights for converting average cost to marginal cost but do so with richer data we find that all measures of markups are either procyclical or acyclical moreover we show that monetary shocks lead markups to fall with output the second part of the paper merges input output information on shipments to the government with detailed industry data to study the effect of demand changes on industry level markups industry level markups are found to be acyclical in response to demand changes

work sharing employment and wages the paper analyzes the effects of a reduction in working time on wages and employment with a monopoly union in general it is not clear in which directions these variables move but if employment and working time are perfect substitutes the effects are related to how working time has been determined initially the wage increases if initial working time is smaller than or equal to the trade union optimum whereas the result is unclear when it is larger in this case it is never optimal for a trade union to reduce both the wage and working time in response to a recessionary supply shock the analysis may help to explain varying attitudes towards work sharing in different countries

testing for unit roots in panel data are wages on different bargaining levels cointegrated theoritical considerations suggest that spillover forces equalize wages for similar jobs thus it is expected that firm wages are cointegrated with the corresponding wage rates on an industrial level in this paper we apply various unit root tests to a panel of wage data we show that the familiar techniques can be adopted to this type of data allowing for unobserved heterogeneity and common time effects our results suggest that firm and industry wages both possess a unit root in the autoregressive representation however ther is only weak evidence for a cointegration realtionship

wages hours and overtime premia evidence from the british labor market unlike the united states britain has no national laws regulating overtime hour assignment or compensation using individual level data on male non managerial workers from the 1998 british new earnings survey the authors investigate relationships among the standard hourly wage rate hourly earnings including overtime the overtime premium and the length of overtime hours they find that when overtime is accounted for average hourly wage earnings are fairly uniform across firms in a given industry because firms paying below market level straight time wages tend to award above market level overtime premiums and conversely firms paying above market level straight time wages provide below market level overtime premiums

the effect of unions on the receipt of unemployment insurance benefits using national longitudinal survey of youth data for 1979 91 the authors analyze the effect of union representation on the likelihood that individuals eligible for unemployment insurance ui bene

the 35 hour workweek in france straightjacket or welfare improvement workweek reduction laws may be beneficial if market interactions do not fully take into account the preferences reflected in declining secular trends in working hours the most recent law in france shortened the workweek from 39 to 35 hours in 2000 for large firms and in 2002 for small firms analysing differences between large and small firm employees before and after the law we find that aggregate employment was unaffected but labour turnover increased as firms shed workers who became more expensive survey responses indicate that the welfare impact of the law was different across groups of workers women but not men may have benefited from coordination to a shorter workweek and there is also evidence of negative welfare effects for managers possibly due to the law s administrative burden marcello estevao and filipa sa

estimated payroll tax incidence and aggregate demand for labour in the united kingdom the payroll tax should be of interest to empirical researchers for a number of reasons it is a large and growing source of government revenues in many countries such as united states canada and the united kingdom it is also a major source of funds out of which important social security benefits such as unemployment insurance and public pensions are paid however while relatively easy to collect and administer the payroll tax may be distributionally regressive and contradict the equal sacrifice principle based on ability to pay it is thus of some concern for reasons of equity and public policy to be able to evaluate the actual magnitude of these distributional effects in addition there is considerable current interest in alternative social security schemes see for example okner 1975 and munnell 1977 arising from the present demographic trends which with present financial arrangements are likely to result in future funding deficits so that revisions will have to be undertaken in particular a number of studies have examined the liability structure and distributional incidence of the payroll tax peckman and okner 1974 peckman 1977 and johnston and wixon 1978 in order to evaluate the distributional implications of the various options available there should be a better understanding particularly of the distributional characteristics of the payroll tax the specific problem this paper addresses is the distributional incidence of the payroll tax and whether the employer portion of the tax is entirely shifted backwards on to labour that is do employees bear the full burden of the employer portion of the payroll tax in the form of wage cuts or forgone earnings the empirical literature in the area of payroll tax shifting is so far fairly limited and is characterized by markedly differing estimates of the incidence works by deran 1966 1967 weitenburg 1969 brittain 1972 vroman 1974a leuthold 1975 and hamermesh 1979 1980 employed different data bases and empirical procedures and obtained widely differing results in particular the work of brittain 1972 has become the standard reference and the basis for a good deal of empirical analysis the present paper puts forward an alternative approach to estimating payroll tax incidence on employees that substantially improves upon the approach of brittain specifically it involves estimating an aggregate demand curve for labour in the united kingdom and analysing how the curve shifts in response to changes in the payroll tax the result that in a world of competitive markets the full incidence of a universal payroll tax is shifted on to an inelastic supply of labour is a standard result ifl microeconomics musgrave and musgrave 1976 pp 404 406 the

overtime pay overtime hours and labor unions this article analyzes the effect of labor unions on overtime compensation and overtime hours estimates from may 1985 current population survey data indicate that unionization increases the prevalence of premium pay for overtime and reduces the incidence and extent of overtime hours along with the finding of previous research that unionized workers are more susceptible to temporary layoffs these results are consistent with a model in which unions use overtime pay to stabilize working hours and expand membership

occupational social value and returns to long hours this paper examines the phenomenon of uncompensated long hours in jobs with pro social characteristics and presents evidence that long hour wage premiums and occupational social value are substitutes in compensating salaried workers who supply hours exceeding the standard working week i show that the social value of an occupation in particular the degree to which jobs involve helping or providing service to others is inversely related to long hour pay allowing for heterogeneity in the degree to which workers value their job s helping orientation lets me explore how gender differences in employees attitudes toward pro social behaviour can explain some of the observed occupational sorting trends and gender differences in long hour compensation women tend to be more strongly drawn to helping occupations and at the same time receive lower long hour premiums in these jobs relative to men i offer a theoretical framework to rationalize the empirical trends

regional heterogeneous drivers of electricity demand in saudi arabia modeling regional residential electricity demand abstract this study investigates the drivers of residential electricity demand in saudi arabia at a regional level for the period 1990 2018 using structural time series modeling we find that saudi arabia s two waves of energy price reforms in 2016 and 2018 have had different impacts on residential electricity consumption across its regions the empirical estimation results show that the long run price responses of residential electricity demand vary across regions from 0 20 in the central region to 0 46 in the eastern region the short run elasticities are 0 10 for the central and western regions 0 15 in the southern region while the eastern region s demand does not respond to price changes in the short run the long run income elasticities of the regions residential electricity demand also differ considerably from 1 02 in the western region to 0 27 in the eastern region the short run income elasticities are 0 14 and 0 43 for the eastern and western regions respectively while the residential electricity demand in the central and southern regions does not react to income changes we further estimate that hot weather conditions significantly impact all regions residential electricity demand finally we find that all regions saw some efficiency improvements in light of the energy price reforms although there is a room for further improvements the findings of the study can be useful for policymakers through the ways that we discussed in the paper

the evolution of attitudes to risk lottery tickets and relative wealth abstract individual attitudes to risk are examined in an evolutionary model males obtain more offspring as a consequence of greater wealth both directly and because this attracts more mates the second effect induces gambling driven by relative wealth and can create pareto inefficiency fair bets involving small losses and large gains are taken if any fair bets at all are taken altogether the model accords with observations concerning bets taken and declined by typical individuals despite settings of widely varying per capita wealth journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d81

career concerns contracts and effort distortions a two period career concerns model with symmetric information but uncertainty about each worker s ability is analyzed contracts are unobservable but incomes are observable it is shown that effort is distorted upward by contracts being unobservable and that the distortion depends positively on turnover

hourly wages and working time in the dutch market sector 1962 1995 this article analyses the joint behaviour of hourly wages and standard hours in the netherlands with respect to the development of full time hours to different hypotheses are suggested work sharing or productivity sharing under the work sharing hypothesis high unemployment would lead to reduced hours whereas under productivity sharing increased productivity leads to higher wages or reduced hours the evidence is in favour of the productivity hypothesis there is no direct impact of unemployment on the evolution of hours moreover although reduced hours tend to increase hourly wages in the short run this is not the case in the long run

working time regulation in a search economy with worker moral hazard abstract this paper analyzes the consequences of a working time reduction within an integrated shirking matching model under laissez faire workers and employers bargain over wages and working hours when unemployment is high the no shirking condition is binding and the number of working hours is lower than the level that would be negotiated in the absence of unobservable shirking in this case a work sharing policy increases aggregate employment at the opposite for low unemployment countries the no shirking condition does not bind and a working time regulation always worsens the labour market situation

fixed costs and hours constraints hours constraints are typically identified by worker responses to questions asking whether they would prefer a job with more hours and more pay or fewer hours and less pay because jobs with different hours but the same rate of pay may be infeasible when there are fixed costs of employment or mandatory overtime premia the constraint in those cases may be illusory cross section estimates of reported hours constraints are consistent with this model implying that the overall level of hours constraints may exaggerate the extent to which the labor market is characterized by frictions and imperfections

hours layoffs and unemployment insurance funding theory and practice in an international perspective the strikingly different behaviour of important economic aggregates in the united states and other industrial countries has received surprisingly little attention from economists among recent exceptions however gordon i 982 has shown that wages and hours of work are much more flexible in the united kingdom and japan than in the united states such relative hours variability is confirmed in a macro analysis by capdevielle and alvarez i98i and at micro level by sengenberger and kohler i982 the latter authors are concerned with labour market adjustment within the u s and west german automobile industries between i 97 i and i 980 estimates of the german workeroutput elasticity are found to be less than half that of the united states while the german hours elasticity is twice the united states figure at the national aggregate level capdevielle and alvarez also reveal much greater employment variability in the united states than in most other oecd countries in the years following the i973 74 opec supply shock much in line with these employment hours observations moy and sorrentino i98i argue that after

work sharing and overtime this paper deals with the employment effects of reduced working time when firms endogenous response of overtime is considered the analysis distinguishes between fixed and profit maximizing levels of output as well as between interior and corner solutions it is shown that under plausible assumptions a reduction in working time is quite likely to be counterproductive as an employment promoting measure i introduction a reduction in working time has been proposed as a method of increasing employment through work sharing such proposals however often seem to build on an oversimplified view of the world where little consideration is given to various possible repercussions most economists therefore seem rather sceptical towards such proposals for more or less critical discussions see e g hart sloane 1979 charpin 1984 brunstad holm 1984 calmfors 1985 hoel 1986 1987 hoel vale 1986 and dreze 1987 none of these papers however takes into account that actual working time will differ from normal working time to the extent that there is overtime work the aim of this paper is to analyse how endogenous responses of overtime may affect the outcome with respect to employment of reducing the normal working time although overtime work currently accounts for only a minor proportion of total working time around three per cent in sweden we believe this to be an important channel since a major reduction in working time will represent a nonmarginal change which is likely to produce significant changes in established practices our results add to the doubts that a reduction in working time increases employment there has been some recent work on the relationship between normal working time and overtime cf hart 1984 fitzroy hart 1985

the demand for hours of labor direct evidence from california california s longstanding requirement that most women receive time and a half pay for workhours beyond eight in one day was extended to men in 1980 analyzing current population survey data from 1973 1985 and 1991 we find that this overtime penalty substantially reduced the amount of daily overtime worked by california men relative to men in other states comparisons that use women to control for california specific shocks show even stronger effects the estimates imply a price elasticity of demand for overtime hours of at least 20 5

using alsace moselle local laws to build a difference in differences estimation strategy of the employment effects of the 35 hour workweek regulation in france france s 1998 implementation of the 35 hour workweek has been one of the greatest regulatory shocks on labor markets few studies evaluate the impact of this regulation because of a lack of identification strategies for historical reasons due to the way alsace moselle was returned to france in 1918 the implementation of france s 35 hour workweek was less stringent in that region than in the rest of the country which is confirmed by double and triple differences yet it shows no significant difference in employment with the rest of france which casts doubt on the effectiveness of this regulation

unions in a frictional labor market abstract a labor market with search and matching frictions where wage setting is controlled by a monopoly union that follows a norm of wage solidarity is found vulnerable to substantial distortions associated with holdup with full commitment to future wages the union achieves efficient hiring in the long run but hikes up wages in the short run to appropriate rents from firms without commitment in a markov perfect equilibrium hiring is too low both in the short and the long run the quantitative impact is demonstrated in an extended model with partial union coverage and multiperiod union contracting

employment and allocation effects of reducing the length of the workday the paper analyses the effects of reducing the length of the workday in a situation with classical unemployment owing to a fixed hourly real wage rate the length of the workday is assumed to enter the production functions of the two sectors manufacturing and services differently employment will increase in the manufacturing sector while the employment effect in the service sector is ambiguous it is possible for employment in the service sector to decline so much that total employment also goes down if the workday is shortened in the manufacturing sector alone employment will rise in this sector and decline in the service sector the effect on total employment is ambiguous with a specific case of mixed classical and keynesian unemployment employment in the manufacturing sector will be unaffected by changes in the length of the workday while a reduction in the length of the workday will reduce employment in the service sector if the income elasticity for services is not less than one

the cyclicality of real wages within employer employee matches using data from the panel study of income dynamics the author examines the cyclicality of wages within employer employee matches for the years 1970 91 recent research on wage cyclicality has suggested that wages are very procyclical tending to rise and fall with economic upturns and downturns even for workers who remain with the same employer the author finds however that the evidence for wage procyclicality within the matches he examines is rather weak except for the small group of workers who were paid by piece rate or commissions despite having acyclical wage rates men who were paid hourly had earnings movements that were very procyclical salaries exhibited little cyclicality but salaried workers who had income sources from bonuses commissions or overtime had procyclical earnings the results suggest that the increasing prevalence of incentive based pay will increase the procyclicality of wages within matches

12 million salaried workers are missing evidence from current population surveys various cohorts of the national longitudinal surveys and the panel study of income dynamics suggests that the fraction of american employees who were paid salaries held constant from the late 1960s through the late 1970s and continued to hold constant or perhaps fell slightly thereafter through the late 1990s an analysis that accounts for the changing industrial occupational demographic and economic structure of the work force shows that this fraction was 9 percentage points below what would have been expected in the late 1970s this shortfall is not explained by growth in the temporary help industry declining unionization institutional changes in overtime or wage payment regulation the increasing openness of american labor and product markets or convergence of nonwage aspects of hourly and salaried employment the author suggests several alternative explanations

effects of shorter hours on employment in disequilibrium models abstract in this paper the employment effects of a wage compensated and non compensated reduction of standard working time are examined in the context of disequilibrium theory in disequilibrium models with exogenous working time noncompensated shorter standard hours increase employment in both regimes keynesian and classical unemployment wage compensation reduces the employment response at a regime dependent rate if working time is endogenized by taking into account overtime effects the employment response of shorter hours is positive in keynesian unemployment and negative in classical unemployment wage compensation increases the employment effect in the keynesian regime and decreases it in the classical regime a model is presented that allows for hours as well as capital stock adjustment and integrates non competitive price setting

working time regulation in france from 1996 to 2012 france which is often seen as an unusual country with a rigid 35 hour working week has experienced massive changes in its regulation of working time in recent decades including a progressive removal of 35 hour working week laws these changes have affected and continue to affect workplace organisation working conditions job creation productivity and wages the 35 hour working week policy represents a reduction in working time as well as a complex package that restructured french labour law and that opened up a great deal of space for social bargaining this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of working time regulation and its political roots it discusses the studies evaluating the 35 hour working week and examines some of the basic consequences of reversing this policy since 2002 it also highlights unexplored lines of research on this topic

estimating deficit probabilities with price responsive demand in contract based electricity markets studies that estimate deficit probabilities in hydrothermal systems have generally ignored the response of demand to changing prices in the belief that such response is largely irrelevant we show that ignoring the response of demand to prices can lead to substantial over or under estimation of the probability of an energy deficit to make our point we present an estimation of deficit probabilities in chile s central interconnected system between 2006 and 2010 this period is characterized by tight supply fast consumption growth and rising electricity prices when the response of demand to rising prices is acknowledged forecasted deficit probabilities and marginal costs are shown to be substantially lower

technology utilization and inflation what drives the new keynesian phillips curve we argue that the new keynesian phillips curve literature has failed to deliver a convincing measure of real marginal costs we start from a careful modeling of optimal price setting allowing for nonunitary factor substitution nonneutral technical change and time varying factor utilization rates this ensures the resulting real marginal cost measures match volatility reductions and level changes witnessed in many u s time series the cost measure comprises conventional countercyclical cost elements plus procyclical and covarying utilization rates although procyclical elements seem to dominate the components of real marginal cost components are becoming less cyclical over time incorporating this richer driving variable produces more plausible price stickiness estimates than otherwise and suggests a more balanced weight of backward and forward looking inflation expectations than commonly found our results challenge existing views of inflation determinants and have important implications for modeling inflation in new keynesian models

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

efficient taxation wage bargaining and policy coordination this paper is related to the literature on optimal nonlinear taxation under right to manage wage formation and we assume that the fall back profit facing firms during wage bargaining depends on th

motivating wage structures the traditional textbook model of labor supply treats the wage structure facing the individual utility maximizer as more or less exogenously given this paper modifies this crucial assumption and argues that it provides some interesting further detail on the labor supply model the employer is viewed as a labor cost minimizer subject to an output constraint and the additional constraint that each individual must receive a certain level of utility this gives an optimal demand for hours the employer is then assumed to devise a wage structure such that the individual employee willingly supplies exactly those number of hours that the employer demands it is argued that this is a more logical way of viewing labor supply compared to the traditional approach which effectively ignores the fact that it is employers who set hours of work a simple and appealing formula is developed which relates the optimal wage structure to the relative productivities of hours and men at the margin it is shown that the optimal wage structure depends only on the employer s technology finally labor taxes are integrated into the framework which demonstrates that the underlying ideas are little affected by this complication

worksharing and factor prices abstract the aspect of worksharing on which this paper concentrates concerns an increase in the firm s workforce offset by a reduction in average working hours emphasis is given to the effect of relative factor prices on worksharing within a model structure which includes the capital stock and worker productivity as endogenous inputs factor prices include all the main categories of wage and non wage labour payments as well as the user cost of capital special attention is given to the role of non wages both quasi fixed and variable an analysis of the effects of marginal employment subsidies on worksharing is also considered with reference to the french solidarity contracts

perception of price when price information is costly evidence from residential electricity demand a bstract residential electricity consumption is an example of a good for which it is costly to determine marginal price since price changes with the quantity purchased according to multistep block rate schedules this paper investigates the effect of the price information problem on consumers price perceptions an alternative hypothesis of average price perception is tested against the marginal price postulate which assumes wellinformed consumers the model which includes a price perception variable allows the estimation of the price to which consumers actually respond the empirical results support the hypothesis that consumers respond to average price perceived from the electricity bill

the impact of the overtime policy reform evidence from the low paid workers in taiwan this article investigates the effects of shortening standard workweek on workers with different income levels using two repeated cross sectional survey data the taiwanese manpower utilization survey and human resource survey we estimate the impacts of the new policy on working hours and monthly income our results show that the new standard workweek in taiwan has made the working hours drop but the scale of decrease becomes smaller in the following 3 years although the hours drop has gradually risen back for every worker the rate of increase is higher for the low income workers the monthly incomes of the high income female workers have decreased however the decreases in the hourly wage rates are less than their average wage rates our results also show that the firms have automatically adapted under the new law and a poor enforcement scheme after a period of time

labour utilization and statutory non wage costs the purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretical framework in which to analyse the effects of statutory non wage costs on labour utilization the theoretical analysis of statutory non wage costs has been hampered by the complexity of the various schemes operated by different countries most countries have a social security contribution scheme that is partly fixed with respect to labour utilization and partly variable in this paper a contribution system that incorporates some typical elements of such schemes is analysed a framework is developed that seeks to determine how variations in statutory non wage costs might alter the employer s cost minimizing combination of utilization and employment if the statutory fixed component of labour costs could be reduced then the cost of an additional hour of overtime would increase relative to the cost of an hour s work from a new employee thus shifting the optimizing combination many types of statutory non wage payments are made in different countries but the majority of these can be fitted within a framework that has three main elements a a payment that is fixed irrespective of earnings or hours of work these may be payroll taxes or redundancy payments contributions or in some cases may be negative as for example regional employment premium in the united kingdom b an element that varies with total earnings for example rates of social insurance contribution c a payment that is fixed once earnings rise above a given ceiling most social insurance schemes take this regressive form payment of national insurance in the united kingdom for example for a period

dynamic labour demand using error correction model using a new econometric model this study provides evidence that contradicts previous assertions about the japanese labour market the interrelationship between employment and hours of labour is stressed in this analysis by explicitly dividing labour input into both employment and labour hours this model enables results to be obtained through both simulation and estimation which allow measurement of adjustment speeds and elasticity in both employment and labour hours to wages the results of the simulations are as follows no apparent difference in adjustment speeds between employment and hours of labour was found the adjustment of hours of labour is more cyclical and overshoots whereas that of employment is smoother the adjustment speed of each simulation is slower than that found in most previous studies in the present long run simulation it is not as slow in the short run and policy simulations therefore adjustment speeds strongly depend on the method of simulation

the estimation of short run household electricity demand using pooled aggregate data short run household electricity demand has been estimated with conditional demand models by a variety of authors using both aggregate data and disaggregate data disaggregate data are most desirable for estimating these models however in many cases available disaggregate data may be inappropriate furthermore disaggregate data may be unavailable altogether in these cases readily available aggregate data may be more appropriate this article develops and evaluates an econometric technique to generate unbiased estimates of household electricity demand using such aggregate data

effects on unemployment of reduced working time in an economy where firms set wages the paper considers an economy where firms set wages balancing the direct benefit of low wages with the indirect cost of low wages relative to other firms leading to high quit rates and therefore high training costs reducing the institutionally given working time makes the importance of training costs increase thus making firms more concerned about keeping quit rates low the effect is increased unemployment as a consequence of reduced working time the effect on hourly and yearly wages is uncertain although increased hourly wages seem to be the most plausible case

an econometric analysis of peak electricity demand in the short run abstract different functional forms for the analysis of electricity demand are developed and compared to the popular double log demand model these functional forms are characterized by an increased sensitivity of electricity demand to price changes as prices increase and decreased sensitivity as the weather becomes more extreme these two features capture popular notions in industry about electricity demand behaviour on the basis of 12 different samples corresponding to 12 different utilities of monthly data over the 1972 76 period these functional forms are found to provide useful alternatives to the double log demand model nevertheless the most important characteristic of the empirical results is their variability across utilities the analysis is equally applicable to average and peak demand but the discussion stresses peak demand

profit maximizing cost allocation for firms using cost based pricing this work develops a profit maximizing cost allocation scheme for firms that allocate all costs to their various outputs and then use these costs to set prices a process known as fully distributed cost based pricing if the costs incurred by the firm are not easily traced to a particular output for example the electric bill for a shared manufacturing plant the costs must be allocated the demand for a given output is assumed to be a function of the price hence the cost allocation scheme that is selected will affect both the price and the demand for the output the allocation of common costs that maximizes the firm s overall profit under these conditions is identified frequently the profit maximizing allocation allocates none of the untraceable common costs to one or more of the outputs this allocation scheme stands in contrast to common practices of sharing costs equally or proportionally across outputs examples explore the implications of such a profit maximizing cost allocation on prices and demand in four scenarios i no constraints ii constraints on maximum allowable prices iii a change in market size and iv cost containment incentives

the cost of overtime hours in british production industries both theoretical and empirical labour market papers that incorporate the workers hours dichotomy often contain assumptions about shapes of the overtime premium schedules faced by industry using cross section data for british production industries in three years of sharply contrasting economic climates 1981 1984 and 1988 this paper investigates empirically the appropriate choice of schedule and therefore the industrial cost consequences of changing the average number of overtime hours per period the analysis tackles problems associated with data disaggregation the proportion of workers working overtime omitted variables heteroscedasticity and intertemporal variation

wages and the length of the working day an empirical test based on norwegian quarterly manufacturing data a simple framework is specified which is suitable for testing the relationship between the length of the working day and wages per hour the relationship is tested on norwegian manufacturing data using both dynamic modeling and cointegration techniques both methods provide empirical support for a hypothesis of long run independence of real wages and hours conditional on constant productivity and unemployment the results from dynamic modeling confirm that there are significant short run effects of changes in normal hours corresponding to the income compensation schemes usually introduced along with reduction in the length of the working day

employment and distributional effects of restricting working time we study the employment and distributional effects of regulating reducing working time in a general equilibrium model with search matching frictions job creation entails fixed costs but existing jobs are subject to diminishing returns we characterize the equilibrium in the de regulated economy where firms and individual workers freely negotiate wages and hours then we consider the effects of a legislation restricting the maximum working time while we let wages respond endogenously employment effects are sensitive to the representation of preferences in our benchmark small reductions in working time starting from the laissez faire equilibrium solution always result in a small increase in the equilibrium employment while larger reductions reduce employment the regulation benefits workers both unemployed and employed even if wages decrease and even in cases where employment falls but reduces profits and output

insider effects in wage determination abstract the paper attempts to shed new light on the determinants of industry wages by a cross country comparison of wage setting relationships making use of comprehensive and consistent panel data on industries from the early 1960s to the mid 1980s the empirical analysis involves estimations of identically specified industry wage equations for each of five countries sweden norway finland germany and the united states a key finding is that industry wages in the u s are the most responsive to sectoral price and productivity changes by contrast industry wages in the nordic countries are largely unaffected by sectoral conditions the results cast doubt on the competitive model as an accurate characterization of wage setting under decentralization

the effects of overtime pay regulation on worker compensation proponents claim that a statutory overtime premium by raising the relative cost of overtime may encourage firms to substitute employment for overtime hours the author argues that there will be no real effects if firms reduce straight time wages so as to offer the same package of weekly compensation and hours of work that was acceptable initially empirical analysis suggests that wage differentials do arise to mitigate the purely demand driven effects predicted by previous models but these differentials are not large enough to neutralize overtime pay regulation completely copyright 1991 by american economic association

hours of work and the fair labor standards act a study of retail and wholesale trade 1938 1950 when the fair labor standards act was first implemented a 5 reduction in the length of the standard workweek reduced by at least 18 the proportion of men and women working more than 40 hours per week this analysis based on monthly time series data from 1935 41 bls surveys and individual level data from the 1940 and 1950 censuses shows that the act s impact was larger in the south where the proportion of men and women working over 40 hours fell by 23 and 43 respectively than in the north because of much lower pre act wages in the south than in the north the minimum wage provisions of the act were much more binding in the south southern employers were less able than northern employers to adjust straight time wages in response to the act s overtime provisions

a model of the natural rate of unemployment since the publication of edmund phelps volume the new macroeconomics has treated the labor market as a dynamic process of rational search by unemployed workers for available vacancies wages are viewed as at least potentially flexible though free contracting between workers and firms may lead to fixed wages in the short run imperfect information is a crucial element of the theory for it implies both a need for contracting and a need for rational search rather than simple market clearing in each period a positive rate of frictional unemployment may exist in equilibrium denoted as the natural rate this unemployment is due to the frictions in the search process and imperfections in information rather than to any deficiency in aggregate demand milton friedman defined the natural rate as the level that would be ground out by the walrasian system of general equilibrium equations provided there is embedded in them the actual structural characteristics of the labor and commodity markets including market imperfections stochastic variability in demands and supplies the cost of gathering information about job vacancies and labor availabilities the costs of mobility and so on p 8 this paper reexamines the micro foundations of the natural rate in a model of labor market equilibrium in which turnover flows and imperfect information are explicitly considered workers may quit their current jobs to enter the unemployment pool in order to search among available vacancies for a more preferred position firms economize on turnover by an appropriate wage policy

status the distribution of wealth private and social attitudes to risk this paper supposes an individual cares about his her own wealth not only directly but also via the relative standing that this wealth induces the implications for risk taking are investigated in particular such a model provides a natural explanation of the concave convex concave utility described by friedman and savage however there are a number of key differences between the present model and any model based on own wealth alone for example an equilibrium wealth distribution here may have a middle class further the status interaction involves an externality and an equilibrium wealth distribution may be pareto inefficient but also about the implied relative standing in the distribution of wealth has a long but checkered history an early exponent of such ideas was of course veblen 1899 it is indeed a notion which most economists reject albeit usually without explicit comment a notable and articulate exception however is frank 1985 for example see also the references frank cites on pp 33 34 it is however a notion with substantial intuitive appeal and it seems useful to ascertain its consequences before coming to a final judgement as to its merits the present paper is concerned with deriving the consequences of such valuation of status for risk taking what seems to be the sharpest possible model is adopted here this assumes that what is essentially ordinal rank in the wealth distribution enters von neumann morgenstern utility as an argument in addi tion to wealth itself thus higher wealth increases utility not only directly but also indirectly via higher status in the interests of both simplicity and drama it is typically assumed here that all individuals have identical utility functions which are concave in wealth but convex in status section 2 discusses how the model provides a natural explanation of the fundamental phenomenon addressed by friedman and savage 1948 that individuals may simultaneously purchase insurance and participate in lotteries although each individual here has a utility function which is concave in wealth itself utility can nevertheless be convex in wealth over some range when the indirect effect via status is included this effect is enhanced by the convexity of utility in status but will follow in any case if increasing wealth entails moving up in status much more rapidly than losing wealth entails moving down it is shown

testing the effectiveness of the french work sharing reform a forecasting approach the macroeconomic impact of the french work sharing reform of 2000 a reduction of standard working hours in combination with wage subsidies is analysed using a vector error correction model vecm for several labour market variables as well as inflation and output out of sample forecasts for 2000 2001 are produced a comparison of these forecasts which serve as a benchmark simulation without structural shifts to the realized values with shifts suggests significant beneficial employment effects of the policy mix other shifts were absent and thus cannot explain the outcome output productivity hourly labour costs and inflation are only transitorily affected or not at all

sectoral shocks in a dependent economy long run adjustment and short run accommodation this paper examines the allocation and stabilization consequences of a resource boom in a small open economy both the intersectoral allocation of capital and the price of non traded goods adjust sluggishly in contrast the nominal exchange rate adjusts instantaneously to ensure that the conditions for uncovered interest parity in the presence of rational exchange rate expectations are always met the ability of monetary policy to stabilize the economy is examined and it is shown that even when intervention is justified in principle policy errors which arise from confusing real and monetary shocks may worsen macroeconomic performance

industrial and residential electricity demand dynamics in japan how did price and income elasticities evolve from 1989 to 2014 abstract this study estimates the price and income elasticities of industrial and residential electricity demand in japan with the annual data from 1989 to 2014 a time varying parameter tvp model with the kalman filter is applied to monitor the evolution of consumer behaviors in the post bubble period given the exogenous shock financial crisis in 2008 and the structural breaks electricity deregulation and fukushima daiichi crisis the tvp model can provide a robust estimation of elasticities and can detect the outliers and the structural breaks the results suggest that both industrial and residential consumers become less sensitive to price after the electricity deregulation and the financial crisis and more sensitive to price after the fukushima daiichi crisis especially the industrial sector is less sensitive to price after the retail deregulation by contrast the income elasticities of industrial and residential sector consumers are stable during the examined period results also indicate that a negative relationship exists between the price elasticity of electricity demand and the price level of electricity after the electric sector deregulation some insights on the further electric sector reform and the environmental taxation in japan are also provided

hedonic prices and implicit markets estimating demand and supply functions for differentiated products in choosing the level of quality to purchase the buyer of a differentiated product also chooses a point on the marginal price schedule for that product hence in general the demand functions for product characteristics cannot be consistently estimated by ordinary least squares market equilibrium results in a matching of characteristics of demanders and suppliers this matching restricts the use of buyer and seller characteristics as instruments when estimating demand and supply functions for product characteristics the paper develops these issues a stochastic structure for hedonic equilibrium models is then proposed identification results are presented and estimation procedures are outlined

work sharing during the great depression did the president s reemployment agreement promote reemployment the president s reemployment agreement pra of 1933 directed firms to reduce workweeks during the great depression so existing jobs could be spread into additional employment opportunities similar work sharing policies have recently been implemented across europe in hopes of reducing unemployment i find that ceteris paribus the work sharing aspects of the pra created nearly 2 5 million new employment opportunities in around four months however the programme also required firms to raise hourly wage rates offsetting close to half of these gains furthermore most of the remaining employment gains were wiped out after cartel oriented industry specific codes of fair competition supplanted the pra

models of labour services and estimates of total factor productivity this article examines the manner in which labour services are modelled in the aggregate production function concentrating on the relationship between numbers employed and average hours worked it argues that numbers employed and hours worked are not perfect substitutes and that conventional estimates of total factor productivity which by using total hours worked as the measure of labour services assume they are perfect substitutes will be biased when there are marked changes in average hours worked the relevance of the theoretical argument is illustrated using data for the united states and the united kingdom

employment and hours of work abstract this paper develops a dynamic model of the labor market in which the degree of substitution between employment and hours of work is determined as part of a search equilibrium each firm chooses its demand for working hours and number of vacancies and the earnings profile is determined by nash bargaining the earnings profile is generally nonlinear in hours of work and defines the trade off between employment and hours of work concave production technology induces firms to overemploy and as a result hours of work are below their optimal level the hosios condition is not sufficient for efficiency when there are two industries workers employed by firms with higher recruitment costs work longer and earn more that is good jobs require longer hours of work interestingly technology differentials cannot account for working hours differentials