measuring program impacts on earnings and employment do unemployment insurance wage reports from employers agree with surveys of individuals this article attempts to determine whether wage records reported by employers to state unemployment insurance ui agencies provide a valid alternative to more costly retrospective sample surveys o

corporatism and unemployment in the 1980s and 1990s a number of studies have found an association between corporatist institutions and low unemployment in the 1970s and or 1980s three gaps in our understanding of corporatism s labor market effects are addressed here 1 which of the two principal forms of corporatism corporatist wage setting or union participation in economic policymaking or both generates these effects 2 what are the causal mechanisms 3 did these effects continue in the 1990s in the face of globalization restrictive monetary policy growing dissension within labor movements and related developments the impact of corporatism across 16 affluent oecd countries in the 1980s and 1990s is assessed using pooled time series cross section analysis the results suggest that wage coordination was conducive to low unemployment in the 1980s because it fostered moderation in labor costs spurred faster economic growth and encouraged governments to more aggressively pursue policies to reduce unemployment in the 1990s this effect disappeared largely because unemployment outcomes in low wage coordination countries improved rather than because unemployment outcomes in high wage coordination countries deteriorated union participation in economic policymaking was associated with low unemployment throughout the two decades conditional on the presence of leftist government union participation appears to have had this effect mainly via government policy

accuracy of response in labor market surveys evidence and implications this paper examines the extent of response errors in labor market survey data and explores the implications of such errors for economic analysis explicitly examined are responses to questions on industry occupation union status hours worked and wages analyses are based on two sources 1 a special supplement to the january 1977 current population survey that obtained data from workers and their employers and 2 an exact match of workers and their employers interviewed in the employment opportunity pilot project survey the dual nature of these surveys provides a basis for analyzing the effect of response error on a variety of economic analyses including the trade off between wages and risk the wage impact of unionism and the sensitivity of wage determination models to alternative responses to earnings questions

what went wrong the erosion of relative earnings and employment among young black men in the 1980s this paper shows a widening in black white earnings and employment gaps among young men from the mid 1970s through the 1980s earnings gaps increased most among college graduates and in the midwest while gaps in employment population rates grew most among dropouts we attribute the differential widening to shifts in demand for subgroups due to shifting industry and regional employment the falling real minimum wage and deunionization the growing supply of black to white workers that was marked among college graduates and to increased crime among dropouts the different factors affecting subgroups highlight the economic diversity of black americans

a life course trajectory framework for understanding the intracohort pattern of wage inequality much research has been devoted to cross sectional and intercohort patterns of wage inequality but relatively little is known about the mechanisms for the intracohort pattern of wage inequality to fill this intellectual gap this article establishes a life course trajectory lct framework for understanding the intracohort pattern of wage inequality first the author proposes and conceptualizes three essential properties of the lct framework random variability trajectory heterogeneity and cumulative advantage that are used to establish a mathematical formalization of the lct framework both the conceptualization and the formalization imply that intracohort wage inequality will increase over the life course due to random variability trajectory heterogeneity and cumulative advantage finally the author combines the lct framework with the multilevel growth curve model then applies the model to data from the nlsy79 and finds support for the significance of random variability trajectory heterogenei

empirical evidence on inflation expectations in the new keynesian phillips curve abstract we review the main identification strategies and empirical evidence on the role of expectations in the new keynesian phillips curve paying particular attention to the issue of weak identi

lessons from the u s unemployment insurance experiments recent social experiments have evaluated two reforms of the unemployment insurance ui system reemployment bonuses and job search programs the bonus experiments show that economic incentives affect the length of ui receipt and provide weak evidence that an earlier return to work does not decrease earnings the experiments do not show the favorability of a permanent bonus program as they ignore its effect on the number of the claimants the job search experiments test several more promising reforms nearly all of the combinations of services and increased enforcement reduce ui receipt and have favorable cost benefit analyses earnings often increase though the estimates are imprecise

the impact of incarceration on wage mobility and inequality a life course perspective on crime indicates that incarceration can disrupt key life transitions life course analysis ofoccupations finds that earnings mobility depends on stable employment in career jobs these two lines of research thus suggest that incarceration reduces ex inmates access to the steady jobs that usually produce earnings growth among young men consistent with this argument evidence for slow wage growth among ex inmates is provided by analysis of the national longitudinal survey of youth because incarceration is so prevalent one quarter of black non college males in the survey were interviewed between 1979 and 1998 while in prison or jail the effect of imprisonment on individual wages also increases aggregate race and ethnic wage inequality

anonymity monotonicity and limited neutrality selecting a single alternative from a binary agenda abstract anonymity and neutrality conflict if the number of individuals is even and a single alternative is selected limited neutrality anonymity and monotonicity imply majority rule when the agenda is a two element set

the limits of wage flexibility to curing unemployment this article takes a critical look at the view that wage flexibility us style is the panacea to european unemployment problems it shows that the wage flexibility in the us in the 1980s 1990s was associated with rising inequality and falling real wages for many workers reduced rather than increased employment for the low paid and less skilled whose wages fell and arguably contributed to the growth of a significant criminal population the proportion of american men incarcerated comes close to the proportion of european men long term unemployed the limits to wage flexibility in curing unemployment noted in the paper does not mean the reductions in pay may not under some circumstances raise employment but rather that by themselves massive pay cuts for the low paid are no cure to economic problems copyright 1995 by oxford university press

is subsidized employment cost effective for welfare recipients experimental evidence from seven state demonstrations this paper examines the benefits and costs of training and subsidized employment provided to welfare recipients in demonstration programs in seven states a classical experimental design is used to estimate the effect of these demonstrations on earnings and welfare benefits over 33 months following program entry both effects are substantial and in some cases long lived when combined with data on program costs these findings indicate that while not always cost effective for taxpayers subsidized employment for welfare recipients does convey positive net benefits to participants and to society as a whole

the labor market returns to community college degrees diplomas and certificates this article provides one of the first rigorous estimations of the labor market returns to community college certificates and diplomas as well as estimations of the returns to the more commonly studied associate s degrees using administrative data from kentucky we estimate panel data models that control for differences among students in precollege earnings and educational aspirations associate s degrees and diplomas have quarterly earnings returns of nearly 2 400 for women and 1 500 for men compared with much smaller returns for certificates there is substantial heterogeneity in returns across fields of study degrees diplomas and for women certificates correspond with higher levels of employment

moving to opportunity in boston early results of a randomized mobility experiment this paper examines the short run impacts of a change in residential neighborhood on the well being of low income families using evidence from a program in which eligibility for a housing voucher was determined by random lottery we examine the experiences of households at the boston site of moving to opportunity mto a demonstration program in five cities families in high poverty public housing projects applied to mto and were assigned by lottery to one of three groups experimental offered mobility counseling and a section 8 subsidy valid only in a census tract with a poverty rate of less than 10 percent section 8 comparison offered a geographically unrestricted section 8 subsidy or control offered no new assistance but continued to be eligible for public housing our quantitative analyses of program impacts uses data on 540 families from a baseline survey at program enrollment a follow up survey administered l to 3 5 years after random assignment and state administrative data on earnings and welfare receipt 48 percent of the experimental group and 62 percent of the section 8 comparison group moved through the mto program one to three years after program entry families in both treatment groups were more likely to be residing in neighborhoods with low poverty rates and high education levels than were families in the control group however while members of the experimental group were much more likely to be residing in suburban communities than were those in the section 8 group the lower program take up rate among the experimental group resulted in more families remaining in the most distressed communities households in both treatment groups experienced improvements in multiple measures of well being relative to the control group including increased safety improved health among household heads and fewer behavior problems among boys experimental group children were also less likely to be a victim of a personal crime to be injured or to experience an asthma attack there are no significant impacts of either mto treatment on the employment earnings or welfare receipt of household heads in the first three years after random assignment

what accounts for the decline in crime in this article we analyze recent trends in aggregate property crime rates in the united states we propose a dynamic equilibrium model that guides our quantitative investigation of the major determinants of observed patterns of crime our main findings can be summarized as follows first the model is capable of reproducing the drop in crime between 1980 and 1996 second the most important factors that account for the observed decline in property crime are the higher apprehension probability the stronger economy and the aging of the population third the effect of unemployment on crime is negligible fourth the increased inequality prevented an even larger decline in crime overall our analysis can account for the behavior of the time series of property crime rates over the past quarter century

incarceration length employment and earnings this paper estimates effects of increases in incarceration length on employment and earnings prospects of individuals after their release from prison i utilize a variety of research designs including controlling for observable factors and using instrumental variables for incarceration length based on randomly assigned judges with different sentencing propensities the results show no consistent evidence of adverse labor market consequences of longer incarceration length using any of the analytical methods in either the state system in florida or the federal system in california

juvenile incarceration human capital and future crime evidence from randomly assigned judges over 130 000 juveniles are detained in the united states each year with 70 000 in detention on any given day yet little is known about whether such a penalty deters future crime or interrupts social and human capital formation in a way that increases the likelihood of later criminal behavior this article uses the incarceration tendency of randomly assigned judges as an instrumental variable to estimate causal effects of juvenile incarceration on high school completion and adult recidivism estimates based on over 35 000 juvenile offenders over a 10 year period from a large urban county in the united states suggest that juvenile incarceration results in substantially lower high school completion rates and higher adult incarceration rates including for violent crimes in an attempt to understand the large effects we found that incarceration for this population could be very disruptive greatly reducing the likelihood of ever returning to school and for those who do return significantly increasing the likelihood of being classified as having an emotional or behavioral disorder jel codes k140 i210

does job corps work impact findings from the national job corps study this paper presents findings from an experimental evaluation of job corps the nation s largest training program for disadvantaged youths the study uses survey data collected over four years and tax data over nine years on a nationwide sample of 15 400 treatments and controls the job corps model has promise program participation increases educational attainment reduces criminal activity and increases earnings for several postprogram years based on tax data however the earnings gains were not sustained except for the oldest participants nonetheless job corps is the only federal training program that has been shown to increase earnings for this population

black white wage inequality employment rates and incarceration the observed gap in average wages between black men and white men inadequately reflects the relative economic standing of blacks who suffer from a high rate of joblessness the authors estimate the black white gap in hourly wages from 1980 to 1999 adjusting for the sample selection effect of labor inactivity among working age men in 1999 accounting for labor inactivity including prison and jail incarceration leads to an increase of 7 20 in the black white wage gap adjusting for sample selectivity among men ages 22 30 in 1999 increases the wage gap by as much as 58 increasing selection bias which can be attributed to incarceration and conventional joblessness explains about two thirds of the rise in black relative wages among young men between 1985 and 1998 apparent improvement in the economic position of young black men is thus largely an artifact of rising joblessness fueled by the growth in incarceration during the 1990s

do affluent countries face an incomes jobs tradeoff according to an influential view in the united states pay for less skilledworkers is lowand government benefits are stingy but this facilitates the creation of newjobs and encourages such individuals to take those jobs inmuch of westerneurope relative pay levels are higher for those at the bottom and benefits are more generous but this is said to discourage job creation and job seeking this article offers a comparative assessment of this trade off viewbased on pooled timeseries cross section analyses of 14 countries in the 1980s and 1990s the findings suggest that greater pay equality and a higher replacement rate do reduce employment growth in lowproductivity private sector service industries and in the economy as a whole however these effects are relatively weak the results point to a variety of viable options for countries wishing to maintain or move toward a desirable combination of jobs and equality

the political economy of imprisonment in affluent western democracies 1960 1990 research showing an association between business cycles and imprisonment is suspect on both theoretical and empirical grounds most research on this topic uses an impoverished notion of business cycles and pays no attention to differences in the institutional contexts of economic policymaking this article reexamines this issue using data from 15 affluent capitalist democracies observed over 30 years from 1960 to 1990 pooled regression techniques are used to test hypotheses regarding the effects of business cycles political power and the structure of labor market institutions results from simple models show the expected associations between business cycles and imprisonment rates but these associations disappear in models that include measures of politics and institutional structure this suggests that the business cycle imprisonment relationship is not causal but is instead an artifact of antecedent differences between neoliberal and corporatist societies

earnings losses of displaced workers revisited recent literature reviews conclude that job displacement results in sustained earnings losses bruce c fallick 1996 lori g kletzer 1998 and that estimates of the size of those reductions vary with the type of data used in the analysis the industry within which displacement occurs and business cycle conditions the largest estimated losses were obtained using administrative data from pennsylvania during the 1970s and 1980s louis s jacobson robert j lalonde and daniel g sullivan 1993a the data covered a period of high unemployment in a heavily indus trialized state characterized by disproportionate job losses in manufacturing thus the ability to generalize those results to more favorable economic times and states with a greater reliance on service sector employment has been questioned to address these issues administrative data are used to similarly examine the impact of job displacement on earnings losses of workers in connecticut from 1993 to 2004 the work of jacobson lalonde and sullivan jls also provided important methodologi cal advancement by adapting analytical techniques developed for program evaluation james j heckman and v joseph hotz 1989 to the context of job displacement the same techniques fixed effects and time trend estimators as those used in the original jls publication are initially employed here then the methods are extended to include matching estimators developed since their publication both nearest neighbor estimators of average treatment on the treated att and differenced average treatment on the treated datt are adapted to the context of this study heckman hidehiko ichimura and petra todd 1997 heckman et al 1998 and rajeev h dehejia and sadek wahba 1999 2002 the results presented here for connecticut differ in some ways from those found in the work of jls using data from pennsylvania in the period immediately following job loss regardless of the technique employed earnings reductions for workers displaced through mass layoff range from 32 percent to 33 percent jls reported immediate losses of more than 40 percent six years later using the same estimators as jls earnings reductions in connecticut range from 13 percent to 15 percent they report sustained losses in pennsylvania of 25 percent the smaller long term impacts in connecticut demonstrate that under more ordinary economic times esti mated losses from administrative data lie within the range observed using other data sources this finding resolves a long standing conflict among the results of high quality studies that have used differing data sources to study earnings reductions following job loss 1 using two different matching estimators earnings losses six years after mass layoff are 12 percent the matching estimators compare those who experienced mass layoff to compari sons with the same ex ante probability of the event these smaller losses are consistent with the

weak instrument robust tests in gmm and the new keynesian phillips curve we discuss weak instrument robust statistics in gmm for testing hypotheses on the full parameter vector or on subsets of the parameters we use these test procedures to reexamine the evidence on the new keynesian phillips curve model we find that u s postwar data are consistent with the view that inflation dynamics are predominantly forward looking but we cannot rule out the presence of considerable backward looking dynamics moreover the phillips curve has become flatter recently and this is an important factor contributing to its weak identification

ban the box convictions and public employment ban the box btb policies mandate deferred access to criminal history until later in the hiring process however these policies chiefly target public employers the study is the first to focus on the primary goal of btb reform by measuring the impact of btb policies on the probability of public employment for those with convictions to execute the analyses the study uses data from the national longitudinal survey of youth 1997 cohort 2005 2015 and difference in difference dd estimation the study finds that btb policies raise the probability of public employment for those with convictions by about 30 on average some scholars argue that btb policies encourage statistical discrimination against young low skilled minority males the study employs triple difference ddd estimation to test for statistical discrimination but uncovers no evidence to support the hypothesis jel j15 j71 j78 k4

the effects of housing assistance on labor supply evidence from a voucher lottery this study estimates the effects of means tested housing programs on labor supply using data from a randomized housing voucher wait list lottery in chicago economic theory is ambiguous about the expected sign of any labor supply response we find that among working age able bodied adults housing voucher use reduces labor force participation by around 4 percentage points 6 percent and quarterly earnings by 329 10 percent and increases temporary assistance for needy families program participation by around 2 percentage points 15 percent we find no evidence that the housing specific mechanisms hypothesized to promote work such as neighborhood quality or residential stability are important empirically jel i38 j22 r23 r38

divergent paths a new perspective on earnings differences between black and white men since 1940 we present new evidence on the evolution of black white earnings differences among all men including both workers and nonworkers we study two measures i the level earnings gap the racial earnings difference at a given quantile and ii the earnings rank gap the difference between a black man s percentile in the black earnings distribution and the position he would hold in the white earnings distribution after narrowing from 1940 to the mid 1970s the median black white level earnings gap has since grown as large as it was in 1950 at the same time the median black man s relative position in the earnings distribution has remained essentially constant since 1940 so that the improvement then worsening of median relative earnings have come mainly from the stretching and narrowing of the overall earnings distribution black men at higher percentiles have experienced significant advances in relative earnings since 1940 due mainly to strong positional gains among those with college educations large relative schooling gains by blacks at the median and below have been more than counteracted by rising return to skill in the labor market which has increasingly penalized remaining racial differences in schooling at the bottom of the distribution

evaluating the econometric evaluations of training programs with experimental data this paper takes the results of an employment and training program thatwas run as a field experiment in which the participants were randomlyassigned into a treatment or a control group and compares these results to the estimates that might have been produced by an econometrician who evaluated the program using the same econometric procedures that have been used in the program evaluation literature this comparison shows that many of these econometric procedures fail toreplicate the experimentally determined results and suggests that researchers should be aware of the potential for specification errorsin other nonexperimental evaluations copyright 1986 by american economic association

estimating the frequency of price re optimization in calvo style models abstract this paper assesses the empirical performance calvo style models of price re optimization we first show that versions of these models in which firms update non re optimized prices to lagged inflation account well for the statistical behavior of post war u s inflation rates we then investigate whether these models imply plausible degrees of inertia in price setting behavior by firms they do but only if we depart from two standard auxiliary assumptions monopolistically competitive firms face a constant elasticity of demand and capital is homogeneous and can be instantaneously reallocated after a shock we develop a version of the model in which these assumptions are relaxed and show that it is consistent with the view that firms re optimize prices on average once every two quarters

another characterization of the majority rule abstract given any finite society confronting two alternatives may econometrica 20 1995 680 characterizes the majority rule in terms of anonymity neutrality and positive responsiveness this final condition is usually criticized to be too strong thus we drop it and give a similar characterization in terms of anonymity neutrality pareto optimality and a condition we call weak path independence

is the threat of reemployment services more effective than the services themselves evidence from random assignment in the ui system we examine the effect of the worker profiling and reemployment services system this program profiles unemployment insurance ui claimants to determine their probability of benefit exhaustion and then provides mandatory employment and training services to claimants with high predicted probabilities using a unique experimental design we estimate that the program reduces mean weeks of ui benefit receipt by about 2 2 weeks reduces mean ui benefits received by about 143 ana increases subsequent earnings by over 1 050 most of the effect results from a sharp increase in early ui exits in the treatment group relative to the control group jel j650

the socioeconomic determinants of ill gotten gains within person changes in drug use and illegal earnings generalizing from the sociology of earnings attainment we develop a conceptual model of social embeddedness in conventional and criminal activities to explain illegal earnings among criminal offenders to isolate the effects of time varying factors such as legal earnings drug use and criminal opportunities we use data from the national supported work demonstration project to estimate fixed effects models predicting month to month changes in illegal earnings we find that criminal earnings are sensitive to embeddedness in conforming work and family relationships criminal experience and the perceived risks and rewards of crime moreover heroin and cocaine use creates a strong earnings imperative that is difficult to satisfy in the low wage labor market and offenders earn far more money illegally when they are using these drugs than during periods of abstinence

impatience reputation and offending reconviction rates for offenders are high despite sentence severity increasing with the number of convictions the standard one shot model of crime provides little scope for exploring persistence effects although recent papers by emons and others have sought to put offending decisions into a more dynamic setting this article develops a simple two period model of offending in which criminal convictions act as an adverse signal in labour markets ordinary and multinomial logistic regression modelling is used to test the predictions of the theoritical model and explore the link between unemployment and convictions the empirical results which are based on longitudinal data from the national child development study ncds in the uk strongly support the view that ceteris paribus individuals with previous convictions are at higher risk of being unemployed

five facts about prices a reevaluation of menu cost models are price decreases 3 the frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not 4 the frequency of price change is highly seasonal it is highest in the first quarter and then declines 5 we find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products we show that the first second and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu cost model whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not

majority selection of one alternative from a binary agenda abstract there are two feasible alternatives we impose a weak version of anonymity on an arbitrary social choice function which selects a single alternative at each profile it implies majority rule in the presence of neutrality and monotonicity

how unregulated is the u s labor market the penal system as a labor market institution1 comparative research contrasts the corporatist welfare states of europe with the unregulated u s labor market to explain low rates of u s unemployment in the 1980s and 1990s in contrast this article argues that the u s state made a large and coercive intervention into the labor market through the expansion of the penal system the impact of incarceration on unemployment has two conflicting dynamics in the short run u s incarceration lowers conventional unemployment measures by removing able bodied working age men from labor force counts in the long run social survey data show that incarceration raises unemployment by reducing the job prospects of ex convicts strong u s employment performance in the 1980s and 1990s has thus depended in part on a high and increasing incarceration rate

a complete characterization of majority rules abstract given finite society and any set of alternatives we characterize the majority rule and weak majority rule in terms of anonymity iia neutrality and positively responsive property

the effect of arrests on the employment and earnings of young men many young men commit crime and many are arrested i estimate the effect of arrests on the employment and earnings of arrestees using a large longitudinal data set constructed by merging police records with ui earnings data i find that the effects of arrests are moderate in magnitude and rather short lived

does the g e d improve earnings estimates from a sample of both successful and unsuccessful g e d candidates the author uses a unique data set constructed from florida general education development certificate ged and unemployment insurance ui administrative records to estimate the relative earnings of two groups of male high school dropouts who took the ged exams in 1995 those who passed the exams obtaining the credential and those who failed the exams estimates from several different specifications all show greater mean quarterly earnings growth among those who obtained a ged than among unsuccessful candidates the advantage was small in dollar terms only about 1 400 annually six years after the exams but given the very low initial earnings of these school dropouts it was large in relative terms growing from zero immediately after the 1995 exams to 13 20 six years later most of these gains appear to reflect not differential wage growth between the two groups but a differential rate of movement from non employment to employment

what is wrong with the west european economies tol and yohe point out that in their reply vol 8 no 1 to tol and yohe s review vol 7 no 4 the stern team demonstrates the fragility of the numerical findings of the cost benefit analysis in the stern review at the same time the stern team puts less weight on cost benefit analysis as a guide to policy making on climate change tol and yohe show that the stern review allows several mutually contradictory interpretations of the model that underlies the cost estimates and argue that each interpretation implies that stern s cost estimates have a severe downward bias

the use of criminal record in employment decisions the rights of ex offenders employers and the public the evidence suggests that employers discriminate against ex offenders in the labour market the problem is potentially serious as it involves a substantial proportion of the population especially the male population since research has shown that most people with prior convictions stop offending by their late 20s or early 30s the validity of selection based on criminal record remains questionable this paper examines the need for legal protection of ex offenders by limiting employers access to and use of information on criminal background the rights and interests of the various parties involved employers ex offenders and the general public are discussed approaches to the legal protection of ex offenders in australia are reviewed and legislative changes proposed

the transition from school to jail youth crime and high school completion among black males abstract in this paper we study the relationship among schooling youth employment and youth crime the framework a multinomial discrete choice vector autoregression provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic interactions among a youth s schooling work and crime decisions and arrest and incarceration outcomes we allow for observable initial conditions unobserved heterogeneity measurement error and missing data we use data from the nlsy97 on black male youths starting from age 14 the estimates indicate important roles both for heterogeneity in initial conditions and for stochastic events that arise during one s youth in determining outcomes as young adults

the effect of employment frictions on crime this article provides estimates on how long it takes for released inmates to find a job and when they find a job how less likely they are to be incarcerated an on the job search model with crime is used to model criminal behavior derive the estimation method and analyze policies including a job placement program the results show that the unemployed are incarcerated twice as fast as the employed and take on average 6 months to find a job the article demonstrates that reducing the average unemployment spell of previously incarcerated criminals by 3 months reduces crime and recidivism by more than 5

incarceration and racial inequality in men s employment to estimate employment population ratios for black and white men with an adjustment for incarceration a factor overlooked by most research on employment inequality the authors combine data from sur

the white black educational gap stalled progress and the long term consequences of the emergence of crack cocaine markets abstract we propose the rise of crack cocaine markets as a key explanation for the end to the convergence in black white educational outcomes in the united states that began in the mid 1980s after constructing a measure to date the arrival of crack markets in cities and states we show that the decline in educational outcomes for black males begins with the start of the crack epidemic we also show that there are higher murder and incarceration rates after the arrival of crack cocaine and that these are predictive of lower black high school completion rates a result consistent with human capital theory we estimate that effects related to crack markets can account for approximately 40 to 70 of the fall in black male high school completion rates

economic inequality new methods for new trends two positions dominate the debate over the recent increases in economic inequality in the united states the job skill mismatch thesis attributes rising inequality to growth in the number of high skill high wage jobs that leaves less skilled workers behind the polarization thesis in contrast argues that the service shift generates growth in the number of both high wage and low wage jobs and declines in the middle standard summary measures of distributional inequality cannot discriminate between these depictions of where job growth is occurring we propose new methods for measurement that provide both summary and detailed information about the distributional shifts in earnings and aframework for statistical inference using data from the curent population survey cps on yearly earnings from 1967 to 1987 we show that the trends in distributional inequality vary considerably by race gender and time while the evidence provides more support for the polarization argument this thesis needs refinement if it is to account for the variations in changing inequality observed here

identification issues in forward looking models estimated by gmm with an application to the phillips curve limited information methods are commonly used to estimate forward looking models with rational expectations such as the new keynesian phillips curve of gal and gertler 1999 in this paper we address issues of identiflcation that have been overlooked due to the incompleteness of the single equation formulation we show that problems of weak instruments may arise depending on the properties of the exogenous variables and that they are empirically relevant we also uncover a link between identiflcation and dynamic mis speciflcation and examine the lack of power of hansen s 1982 j test to detect invalid over identifying restrictions with regards to the new phillips curve we flnd that problems of identiflcation cannot be ruled out and they deserve further attention

crime and economic incentives we explore the role that economic incentives particularly changes in wages at the bottom end of the wage distribution play in determining crime rates we use data on the police force areas of england and wales between 1975 and 1996 and find relative falls in the wages of low wage workers lead to increases in crime we carry out a number of experiments with different wage measures including a wage measure that accounts for the effects of changes in the composition of employment these reinforce the picture of a strong association between the low wage labor market and crime the result that incentives play a central role is reinforced further by the strong impact on crime of deterrence measures and of a measure of the returns to crime

is the new keynesian phillips curve flat abstract this paper provides monte carlo evidence that gmm estimates of the new keynesian phillips curve are biased towards finding too much price rigidity if cost push shocks are auto correlated this result may reconcile gmm estimates with the microevidence on price rigidities

housing mobility programs and economic self sufficiency evidence from a randomized experiment this paper examines the effects of a randomized housing voucher program on individual economic outcomes public housing residents who are offered relocation counseling together with housing vouchers that can only be redeemed in low poverty areas experience a reduction in welfare receipt of between 11 and 16 compared to controls these effects are not accompanied by changes in earnings or employment rates as measured by unemployment insurance records offering families unrestricted housing vouchers without additional counseling appears to have little effect on economic outcomes

ranking firms using revealed preference this article estimates workers preferences for firms by studying the structure of employer to employer transitions in u s administrative data the article uses a tool from numerical linear algebra to measure the central tendency of worker flows which is closely related to the ranking of firms revealed by workers choices there is evidence for compensating differentials when workers systematically move to lower paying firms in a way that cannot be accounted for by layoffs or differences in recruiting intensity the estimates suggest that compensating differentials account for over half of the firm component of the variance of earnings

welfare to temporary work implications for labor market outcomes we explore the effects of temporary help employment on welfare recipients subsequent employment and welfare dynamics we find that any employment in temporary help services or other sectors yields substantial benefits compared to no employment although welfare recipients who go to work for temporary help service firms have lower initial wages than those with jobs in other sectors they experience faster subsequent wage growth two years later they are no less likely to be employed their wages are close to those of other workers and they are only slightly more likely to remain on welfare

life course risks mobility regimes and mobility consequences a comparison of sweden germany and the united states1 the analysis of intergenerational mobility has primarily used measures of social position that are functions of an individual s occupation occupation based models of social mobility however have limitations that arguably have grown in recent decades meta analysis of available evidence for sweden western germany and the united states concerning occupational mobility household income mobility job displacement union dissolution and poverty dynamics shows the limitations of the individual level occupation based career trajectory approach to life course mobility this article develops an alternative formulation at the household level which focuses on cross national variation in the extent to which societal institutions influence the rate of events with the potential to change a household s life conditions via the manipulation of incentives for mobility generating events and the extent to which they mitigate the consequences of these events through social insurance the combination of these institut

does incarceration length affect labor market outcomes abstractthis paper studies how longer incarceration spells affect offenders labor market outcomes by using a reform that increased incarceration lengths by approximately 1 month i use detailed register data for offenders who predominantly serve incarceration spells of 1 2 months i analyze the sample for several years prior to and after incarceration and show that the reform led to an exogenous increase in incarceration lengths i find that the longer incarceration spells result in lower unemployment rates and higher earnings possibly because marginal increases in short incarceration spells improve conditions and incentives for rehabilitation while the costs of jail related to these outcomes are unaffected i show that the estimates are robust to different econometric specifications and further provide evidence that my results are not driven by changes in macroeconomic conditions

imprisonment and labor market outcomes evidence from a natural experiment because of racially disproportionate imprisonment rates the literature on mass incarceration has focused on the labor market consequence of imprisonment and the implications of those effects for r

exploring differences in employment between household and establishment data using a large data set that links individual current population survey cps records to employer reported administrative data we document substantial discrepancies in basic measures of employment status that persist even after controlling for known definitional differences between the two data sources we hypothesize that reporting discrepancies should be most prevalent for marginal workers and for marginal or nonstandard jobs and we find systematic associations between the incidence of reporting discrepancies and observable person and job characteristics that are consistent with this hypothesis the paper discusses the implications of the reported findings for both micro and macro labor market analysis

the effects of welfare to work program activities on labor market outcomes studies examining welfare to work program effectiveness present mixed and sometimes discrepant findings partly due to research design data and methodological limitations using administrative data on missouri and north carolina welfare recipients we substantially improve on past estimation approaches to identify the distinct effects of each state s welfare to work subprograms assessment job search assistance and job readiness training and more intensive programs designed to augment human capital more intensive training is associated with greater initial earnings losses but also greater long run earnings gains the negative program impacts we observe in quarters immediately following participation turn positive by the second year after participation