battery electric vehicles looking behind to move forward abstract it is getting increasingly crucial for policymakers to acquire reliable price forecasts for battery electric vehicles bevs to make choices and set priorities here we examine the prospects for the wide deployment of bevs following an ex post analysis of their learning rate and an ex ante forecast of their price up to 2040 we make a clear distinction between the mainstream of bevs and a hypothetical group of bevs that are technically on a par with internal combustion vehicles icvs to do so we introduce a new index in which the driving range and max speed of a vehicle are coupled together i e the mobility diffusion coefficient we highlight different shares of battery packs i e 19 1 and the ensemble of electrification components e g battery pack electric motor power electronics i e electrification cost 52 2 in the price of a bev our price projections suggest that there is no prospect of breakeven between bevs and icvs before 2040 for both groups of bevs because the current learning rates of 9 2 and 15 1 for the price and electrification costs respectively of bevs strong and long term support from policymakers is required to ensure competitiveness of bevs with icvs in the near future

a model of demand with interactions among consumers abstract the aim of this paper is to study emergent patterns of demand when there are social interactions between different consumers specifically our concern is with the case in which consumers preferences are influenced by the consumption behaviour of others the analysis recognises three reference groups the first is a peer group of similar consumers with whom the individual interacts on a regular basis and with whom the individual desires to share some consumption activities the second is one or several contrast group s with which the individual seeks actively not to interact and from whom the individual wishes to distinguish himself herself the third is an aspirational group with whom the individual does not interact on a regular basis but wishes that he she did and with whom the individual would like to share consumption activities but cannot in this relatively simple model these groups influence the individual s behaviour the paper derives steady state and dynamic properties of the distribution of consumption over users the degree to which consumption is restricted to a small group of similar agents is determined by the strength of the contrast and aspiration effects these effects also drive the distribution away from the natural distribution i e the one that would prevail were consumers to consider only the properties of the good and not the actions of other consumers the paper discusses the potential application of this modeling framework in a large number of consumption settings

e ztax tax salience and tax rates this paper examines whether the salience of a tax system affects equilibrium tax rates i analyze how tolls change after toll facilities adopt electronic toll collection etc drivers are substantially less aware of tolls paid electronically i estimate that in steady state tolls are 20 to 40 percent higher than they would have been without etc consistent with a salience based explanation for this toll increase i find that under etc driving becomes less elastic with respect to the toll and toll setting becomes less sensitive to the electoral calendar alternative explanations appear unlikely to be able to explain the findings

financial incentives to mobilise local citizens as investors in low carbon technologies a systematic literature review abstract mobilising greater levels of private finance through local citizen investment in low carbon technologies can help bridge the capital shortfall to meeting climate objectives while also building societal support for the low carbon transition within this context we undertake a systematic review of literature assessing the impact of technology specific economic and financial incentives promoting greater levels of investment in low carbon technologies from local citizen investors both individuals and community groups we focus in particular on the impact of feed in tariffs compared to quota schemes grants tax incentives and soft loans the analysis suggests that local citizen investors do not necessarily act in an economically rational manner in response to these incentives it underscores the importance of understanding the preferences of target demographics the local context as well as the characteristics of the technologies in question and suggests interventions should be considered as part of wider policy packages while identifying challenges to be overcome through instrument design we find that feed in tariffs grants and tax incentives can be successful in mobilising greater levels of investment from local citizen investors but that soft loans tend to be less effective as a stand alone instrument the review identifies areas meriting further exploration in this emerging field of research

social networks and new product choice to successfully market new products in a social network it is essential to identify influential individuals whose product recommendations influence the consumption choices of their peers in this study we use spatial econometric methods to determine how individuals revise their preferences for product attributes when exposed to product recommendations from peers and how different individuals who vary in their degree of network connectedness exert influence on the product choices of others we find evidence that consumers look to others for guidance from peers in their preference for subjective taste specific parameters but tend not to respond to peer price choices our spatial methods allow us to empirically determine the influence exerted by individual members on the consumption choices of other members of the social network we find that connected members of the social network are not always the most influential in revising the consumption choices of others our estimates reveal that network proximity explains only 8 8 of influence

distributional and efficiency impacts of increased us gasoline taxes we examine the impacts of increased us gasoline taxes in a model that links the markets for new used and scrapped vehicles and recognizes the consider able heterogeneity among households and cars household choice parameters derive from an estimation procedure that integrates individual choices for car ownership and miles traveled we find that each cent per gallon increase in the price of gasoline reduces the equilibrium gasoline consumption by about 0 2

modeling interdependent consumer preferences abstract a consumer s preference for an offering can be influenced by the preferences of others in many ways ranging from social identification and inclusion to the benefits of network externalities in this article the authors introduce a bayesian spatial autoregressive discrete choice model to study the preference interdependence among individual consumers the autoregressive specification can reflect patterns of heterogeneity in which influence propagates within and across networks these patterns cannot be modeled with standard random effect specifications and can be difficult to capture with covariates in a linear model the authors illustrate their model of interdependent preferences with data on automobile purchases and show that preferences for japanese made cars are related to geographically and demographically defined networks

innovation diversity and diffusion a self organisation model a number of features of innovation diffusion are identified appropriability diversity expectations selection learning and spillover externalities a dynamic model is formul ated to embed the diffusion question into a more general framework of disequilibrium competition the model incorporates distinct vintage structures reflecting a change in technological trajectory learning by using a nd expectations driven investment rules of thumb simulation studies reveal robust quasi logistic curves but a complicated pattern of net market share gains and losses uncertainty regarding the rationality of early or late adoption it is argued ensures that the requisite behavioral variety is present to generate these diffusion patterns copyright 1988 by royal economic society

waves in consumption with interdependence among consumers this paper presents a model to analyze the development of consumption patterns when there are social interactions among consumers in particular a consumer in this model recognizes three reference groups a peer group of similar consumers with whom the consumer wishes to share consumption activities a distinction group from which the consumer wishes to distinguish him or herself and an aspiration group to which the consumer does not belong but wishes that he she did and with whom the consumer would like to share consumption activities the interplay of aspiration and distinction can lead to waves in consumption these can happen when for example the avant garde consumption of up market pioneers is copied by other types of consumer as the latter aspire to emulate the former the former in turn seek to distinguish themselves from these unwelcome companions by varying their consumption in consequence a particular consumption activity may start up market an then gradually proceed down the social spectrum more complex patterns with continuing cycles in consumption can also be found the paper argues that this model is not only applicable to the consumption behaviour of an elite or would be elite but is relevant in a wide range of consumption settings

toward a new conception of the environment competitiveness relationship accepting a fixed trade off between environmental regulation and competitiveness unnecessarily raises costs and slows down environmental progress studies finding high environmental compliance costs have traditionally focused on static cost impacts ignoring any offsetting productivity benefits from innovation they typically overestimated compliance costs neglected innovation offsets and disregarded the affected industry s initial competitiveness rather than simply adding to cost properly crafted environmental standards can trigger innovation offsets allowing companies to improve their resource productivity shifting the debate from pollution control to pollution prevention was a step forward it is now necessary to make the next step and focus on resource productivity

lead markets and regulation a framework for analyzing the international diffusion of environmental innovations abstract environmental regulations are often intended to stimulate the generation and adoption of eco efficient innovations an important argument in the public debate is also the creation of new markets for environmentally benign products processes and services in other countries and the generation as a result of export opportunities for the pioneering country lead markets research on lead markets has not however focused on environmental innovations to date we therefore extend the lead market model to environmental innovations and take particular account of the peculiarities of such innovations in particular the public good character of environmental benefits and the role of regulations this approach is applied to two case studies wind energy and fuel efficient passenger cars in both cases the innovation was initially adopted in one country other countries subsequently adopted the same innovation design favored by the lead market which in turn developed into a large exporter in the wind generation and car industries respectively we discuss the regulations employed and the reasons for the international success of the innovations induced by them our findings demonstrate that when supported by global demand or regulatory trends strict regulation results in the creation of lead markets finally we provide recommendations on how our model could be used for further research and in the development of a coordinated environmental and innovation policy

conspicuous consumption and race evidence from south africa abstract a century ago thorstein veblen introduced socially contingent consumption into the economic literature this paper complements the scarce empirical literature by testing his conjecture on south african household data and finds that black and coloured households spend relatively more on visible consumption than comparable white households following the approach of charles et al 2009 this paper explores whether the differences in visible expenditures can be explained with a signaling model of status seeking moreover it is assessed to which extent positional concerns motivate conspicuous consumption although the socially contingent share in visible consumption increases with income different incentives to consume conspicuously seem to explain that at every level of income black households spend relatively more on visible consumption than comparable white households in contrast to the findings of charles et al 2009 where differential spending on conspicuous consumption can be found also within each group separately the model s core hypothesis fails to hold within the group of white south africans

a theory of rational addiction we develop a theory of rational addiction in which rationality means a consistent plan to maximize utility over time strong addiction to a good requires a big effect of past consumption of the good on current consumption such powerful complementarities cause some steady states to be unstable they are an important part of our analysis because even small deviations from the consumption at an unstable steady state can lead to large cumulative rises over time in addictive consumption or to rapid falls in consumption to abstention our theory also implies that cold turkey is used to end strong addictions that addicts often go on binges that addicts respond more to permanent than to temporary changes in prices of addictive goods and that anxiety and tensions can precipitate an addiction

impacts of official development assistance on agricultural growth savings and agricultural imports abstract this paper explores the links between development assistance agricultural output growth and imports in 56 developing economies over the period 1974 1990 the empirical model treats agricultural growth and imports savings and aid as endogenous the analysis also accounts for differences in macroeconomic policies the results show that aid had a positive impact on agricultural growth a robust relationship exits between aid and agricultural imports consistent with the argument that aid helps industrialized countries through market expansion and strengthened trade ties

tortoises and hares choice among technologies of unknown merit recent work in the area of competing technologies and increasing returns has largely been concerned with the effectiveness of the market in delivering optimal outcomes the existence of inefficient market outcomes suggests that there might be a place for intervention in the technology choice process this paper develops a model of sequential choice in which the choice process is subject to centralized control the model is used to show that intervention can increase the expected present value of the technology adoption process it remains however that one technology and not necessarily the best will come to dominate the market copyright 1991 by royal economic society

towards alternative trajectories reconfigurations in the dutch electricity regime abstract in the early 2000s dutch electricity companies are increasingly investing in technologies that enable them to replace coal with biomass replacing large amounts of coal up to 40 requires the companies to invest in technological trajectories alternative to the ones they have supported over the past decades this paper aims to understand why these incumbent firms in the dutch electricity regime are developing alternatives the second aim of the paper is to provide a way for assessing the potential of innovations the paper does so by bringing together insights from literature on socio technical regimes and insights from literature on technological and market niches strategic niche management the main conclusion is that both niche processes at the level of experimenting with alternatives and changes in the incumbent regime are necessary for understanding the innovation journey of a new technology a two by two matrix is developed that can be used for both analysis and governance purposes

look at me saving the planet the imitation of visible green behavior and its impact on the climate value action gap abstract examining the regional distribution of 15 different greenhouse gas mitigation practices mps across australia we study the tendency for consumers to imitate visible pro environmental behavior in their local region while there is a great deal of variation in the specific type of mps adopted by consumers located in the same region anova results suggest that they tend to adopt a similar number of mps as their neighbours using discrete choice modelling our results suggest that this is due to the peer adoption of certain visible mps such as using public transport or car pooling encouraging agents to adopt other types of visible mps however the character of this spillover is limited in that visible pro environmental behavior does not appear to influence the adoption of non visible mps we also find that social imitation patterns help individuals overcome the observed gap between their stated concern about climate change and their propensity to act on this concern known as the climate value action gap policy implications for designing effective green nudges are discussed

transition pathways revisited established firms as multi level actors in the heavy vehicle industry abstract the multi level perspective on sustainability transitions positions established firms incumbents as defenders of existing technologies at the regime level by contrast it positions new entrants at the niche level as promoters of new technologies this paper challenges the positioning of firms as actors on either regime or niche levels based on a comparative analysis of technology strategies in the heavy vehicle industry the paper shows that established firms are active at both levels developing several technology alternatives simultaneously this means that incumbents technology strategies determine important parts of the required niche regime interactions the paper also shows how incumbents may pursue contrasting technology strategies while some adopt a dualistic approach keeping regime and niche level activities technologically and commercially separate others develop integrated strategies where niche activities are leveraged to impact upon the regime level the cases studied illustrate how the success of such integrated strategies depends on the emergence of bridging policies bridging policies are relevant both for linking early niche markets to broader regime level markets and for supporting further technological advancements of niche markets

spillovers stratification and inequality this paper surveys some recent work which seeks to model persistent income inequality and explain such phenomena as ghetto formation and poverty traps the paper illustrates how a number of these models possess a common structure in which local spillover effects interact with income based stratification of neighborhoods to transmit parental economic status from generation to generation as such these models represent an extension of the macroeconomic literature on spillovers and coordination failures to economic environments which endogenize the interaction environments of individual agents the theoretical and empirical justifications of these spillover and stratification effects are discussed finally some empirical implications of these models are analyzed

threshold models of interpersonal effects in consumer demand abstract whether one buys may be determined in part by how many others have when the correlation is positive we refer to bandwagon effects and when negative reverse bandwagons we construct demand schedules in the presence of such effects and with simple assumptions about supply investigate the existence of and approach to equilibrium stable price quantity equilibria exist but for many plausible parameter values equilibria are asymptotically unstable and system trajectories consist of cycles that can move with slight parameter changes via successive bifurcations into what has been called chaotic dynamics essentially indistinguishable from random noise these conditions occur despite assumptions of erfect information profit maximizing firms and utility maximizing individuals

development a study of the indian manufacturing industry if infrastructure tends to generate spillover externalities as has been the assumption in much of the development literature one may reasonably look for evidence of such indirect effects in the accounts of manufacturing industries empirical support for this assumption has so far been ambiguous this analysis of indian data however reveals substantial externality effects from the states infrastructure to manufacturing productivity the analysis separates the direct effects of roads and electricity as mediated by the infrastructure services purchased by manufacturing industries along with other intermediate inputs from the indirect effects as measured by the impact of infrastructure capacity on the solow productivity residual in the 20 years from 1972 to 1992 growth of road and electricity generating capacity seems to have accounted for nearly half the growth of the productivity residual of india s registered manufacturing

roads to prosperity assessing the link between public capital and productivity does the positive correlation between infrastructure and productivity reflect causation if so in which direction the author finds that when growth in roads the largest component of infrastructure changes productivity growth changes disproportionately in u s industries with more vehicles that vehicle intensive industries benefit more from road building suggests that roads are productive at the margin however road investments do not appear unusually productive intuitively the interstate system was highly productive but a second one would not be road building thus explains much of the productivity slowdown through a one time unrepeatable productivity boost in the 1950s and 1960s

prospects for jatropha biofuels in tanzania an analysis with strategic niche management the paper reports on research in tanzania about the scope for developing biofuels from an oil seed bearing plant called jatropha curcas linnaeus the plant is widely seen to have potential to help combat the greenhouse effect help to stop local soil erosion create additional income for the rural poor and provide a major source of energy both locally and internationally the principal analytic tool is strategic niche management snm an approach rooted in evolutionary innovation theory we analyse how the scope for an energy transition is influenced by factors at three societal levels the overarching landscape the sectoral setting or regime and the niche level where the innovation develops and diffuses valuable niche processes were found in a few areas especially in cultivation but we conclude that there are still many obstacles in tanzania s prevailing energy regime the development of jatropha biofuels is still in an early phase we list policy recommendations and discuss some methodological issues arising from the use of snm

inside the black box technology and economics economists have long treated technological phenomena as events transpiring inside a black box and on the whole have adhered rather strictly to a self imposed ordinance not to inquire too seriously into what transpires inside that box the purpose of professor rosenberg s work is to break open and examine the contents of the black box in so doing a number of important economic problems be powerfully illuminated the author clearly shows how specific features of individual technologies have shaped a number of variables of great concern to economists the rate of productivity improvement the nature of learning processes underlying technological change itself the speed of technology transfer and the effectiveness of government policies that are intended to influence technologies in particular ways the separate chapters of this book reflect a primary concern with some of the distinctive aspects of industrial technologies in the twentieth century such as the increasing reliance upon science but also the considerable subtlety and complexity of the dialectic between science and technology other concerns include the rapid growth in the development of costs associated with new technologies as well as the difficulty of predicting the eventual performance characteristics of newly emerging technologies

regime destabilisation as the flipside of energy transitions lessons from the history of the british coal industry 1913 1997 this paper investigates a neglected aspect of the transitions literature the destabilisation of existing regimes and industries it presents an analytical perspective that integrates four existing views on destabilisation and conceptualizes the process as a multi dimensional and enacted phenomenon involving technical economic political and cultural processes this perspective is illustrated with two historical cases of the british coal industry 1913 1967 1967 1997 these cases are also used to articulate five lessons regarding the overall destabilisation process and five lessons regarding the economic and socio political environments of industries the conclusion section translates the historical lessons into insights with relevance for the contemporary challenge of climate change and transitions to low carbon energy systems

recent evolutionary theorizing about economic change this famous passage from marshall s principles of economics it first appeared in the fifth edition which came out in 1907 nicely brings out two issues which are as germane to economics today as they were when marshall wrote the first is the heavy reliance by economists in their formal theorizing on the notion of equilibrium the other is the appeal that biological conceptions3x201d have for many economists particularly when their focus is on economic change

examining the role of policy design and policy interaction in eu automotive emissions performance gaps in the wake of the 2015 dieselgate scandal the us and european governments publicly confronted automakers about their behaviour which raised concerns about the integrity of the current emissions legislation regimes in this article i argue that flexibilities within the eu s emissions legislative framework afforded automakers the opportunity to legally sidestep strict performance standards laid out in the law and resulted in a significant performance gap in real world driving emissions this article provides a timely examination of eu emission legislation policy design and policy interaction within the european union with the aim of explaining why the eu policy framework failed to regulate the regional automotive industry current research is mostly concerned with the typology and effectiveness of individual environmental policy instruments be it regulatory or economic incentives that aim to influence industry behaviour this article approaches the current eu policy regime in a more holistic manner and focuses on the exploitation of weaknesses in the regulatory framework by private firms which has received little academic attention in the innovation and transition literature a major contribution of this article therefore is a body of primary qualitative interview data from industry elites concerning relevant emissions policies

the slow pace of rapid technological change gradualism and punctuation in technological change discussions of technological change have offered sharply contrasting perspectives of technological change as gradual or incremental and the image of technological change as being rapid even discontinuous these alternative perspectives are bridged using the punctuated equilibrium framework of evolutionary biology using this framework it is argued that the critical event is not a transformation of the technology but speciation the application of existing technology to a new domain of application as a result of the distinct selection criteria and the degree of resource abundance in the new domain a new technological form may emerge the new technological form may be able to penetrate other niches and in particular may precipitate a process of creative destruction and out compete prior technologies this framework is applied to an historical study of wireless communication from the early experimental efforts of hertz to the modern development of wireless telephony

socio technical inertia understanding the barriers to electric vehicles it is widely accepted that electrification of the transport sector is one of several technological trajectories that could redress some of the environmental issues associated with the growth in travel demand including climate change and oil demand at a global scale and air quality and noise pollution at the urban scale electric vehicles have been considered a promising technology at repeated intervals over the last century but this promise has not been realised this paper is a contribution to understanding the key tools and strategies that might enable the successful introduction of new technologies and innovations by exploring the key barriers to electric vehicles encountered in two countries uk and germany where the automobile industry has been historically significant the study evaluates stakeholders opinions on relevant regulation infrastructure investment r d incentives and consumer incentives the key findings of the research are that the introduction and penetration of evs is confronted by several barriers that inhibit a larger market penetration under current conditions which in turn casts doubt on the assumptions of strategic niche management and transitions theory