a nonparametric copula based test for conditional independence with applications to granger causality this article proposes a new nonparametric test for conditional independence that can directly be applied to test for granger causality based on the comparison of copula densities the test is easy to implement because it does not involve a weighting function in the test statistic and it can be applied in general settings since there is no restriction on the dimension of the time series data in fact to apply the test only a bandwidth is needed for the nonparametric copula we prove that the test statistic is asymptotically pivotal under the null hypothesis establishes local power properties and motivates the validity of the bootstrap technique that we use in finite sample settings a simulation study illustrates the size and power properties of the test we illustrate the practical relevance of our test by considering two empirical applications where we examine the granger noncausality between financial variables in a first application and contrary to the general findings in the literature we prov

analytical evaluation of volatility forecasts estimation and forecasting for realistic continuous time stochastic volatility models is hampered by the lack of closed form expressions for the likelihood in response andersen bollerslev diebold and labys econometrica 71 2003 579 625 advocate forecasting integrated volatility via reduced form models for the realized volatility constructed by summing high frequency squared returns building on the eigenfunction stochastic volatility models we present analytical expressions for the forecast efficiency associated with this reduced form approach as a function of sampling frequency for popular models like garch multifactor affine and lognormal diffusions the reduced form procedures perform remarkably well relative to the optimal infeasible forecasts

the income elasticity of non point source air pollutants revisiting the environmental kuznets curve abstract this paper examines the income pollution relationship for three non point source pollutants in 1990 ambient concentrations reported at monitors throughout the us are regressed on median household income and other socio economic variables for the census tracts in which the monitors were located contrary to earlier studies a u shaped relationship is obtained

answering the skeptics yes standard volatility models do provide accurate forecasts a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility using arch and stochastic volatility models while most of these studies have documented highly significant in sample parameter estimates and pronounced intertemporal volatility persistence traditional ex post forecast evaluation criteria suggest that the models provide seemingly poor volatility forecasts contrary to this contention we show that volatility models produce strikingly accurate interdaily forecasts for the latent volatility factor that would be of interest in most financial applications new methods for improved ex post interdaily volatility measurements based on high frequency intradaily data are also discussed

the variance gamma v g model for share market returns a new stochastic process termed the variance gamma process is proposed as a model for the uncertainty underlying security prices the unit period distribution is normal conditional on a variance that is distributed as a gamma variate its advantages include long tailedness continuous time specification finite moments of all orders elliptical multivariate unit period distributions and good empirical fit the process is pure jump approximable by a compound poisson process with high jump frequency and low jump magnitudes applications to option pricing show differential effects for options on the money compared to in or out of the money copyright 1990 by the university of chicago

structural breaks in volatility spillovers between international financial markets contagion or mere interdependence abstract this paper conducts an investigation of volatility transmission between stock markets in hong kong europe and the united states covering the time period from 2000 up to 2011 using intra daily data we compute realized volatility time series for the three markets and employ a heterogeneous autoregressive distributed lag model as our baseline econometric specification motivated by the presence of various crisis events contained in our sample we detect time variation and structural breaks in volatility spillovers particularly during the financial crisis of 2007 we find effects consistent with the notion of contagion suggesting strong and sudden increases in the cross market synchronization of chronologically succeeding volatilities investigating the role of mean breaks and conditional heteroskedasticity in the realized volatilities however we find the latter to be the main driver of breaks in volatility spillovers taking the volatility of realized volatilities into account we find no evidence of contagion anymore

the pricing of options on assets with stochastic volatilities one option pricing problem that has hitherto been unsolved is the pricing of a european call on an asset that has a stochastic volatility this paper examines this problem the option price is determined in series form for the case in which the stochastic volatility is independent of the stock price numerical solutions are also produced for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price it is found that the black scholes price frequently overprices options and that the degree of overpricing increases with the time to maturity one option pricing problem that has hitherto remained unsolved is the pricing of a european call on a stock that has a stochastic volatility from the work of merton 12 garman 6 and cox ingersoll and ross 3 the differential equation that the option must satisfy is known the solution of this differential equation is independent of risk preferences if a the volatility is a traded asset or b the volatility is uncorrelated with aggregate consumption if either of these conditions holds the risk neutral valuation arguments of cox and ross 4 can be used in a straightfoward way this paper produces a solution in series form for the situation in which the stock price is instantaneously uncorrelated with the volatility we do not assume that the volatility is a traded asset also a constant correlation between the instantaneous rate of change of the volatility and the rate of change of aggregate consumption can be accommodated the option price is lower than the blackscholes b s 1 price when the option is close to being at the money and higher when it is deep in or deep out of the money the exercise prices for which overpricing by b s takes place are within about ten percent of the security price this is the range of exercise prices over which most option trading takes place so we may in general expect the b s price to overprice options this effect is exaggerated as the time to maturity increases one of the most surprising implications of this is that if the b s equation is used to determine the implied volatility of a near the money option the longer the time to maturity the lower the implied volatility numerical solutions for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price are also examined the stochastic volatility problem has been examined by merton 13 geske 7 johnson 10 johnson and shanno 11 eisenberg 5 wiggins 16 and

is volatility clustering of asset returns asymmetric abstract volatility clustering is a well known stylized feature of financial asset returns this paper investigates asymmetric pattern in volatility clustering by employing a univariate copula approach of chen and fan 2006 using daily realized kernel volatilities constructed from high frequency data from stock and foreign exchange markets we find evidence that volatility clustering is highly nonlinear and strongly asymmetric in that clusters of high volatility occur more often than clusters of low volatility to the best of our knowledge this paper is the first one to address and uncover this phenomenon in particular the asymmetry in volatility clustering is found to be more pronounced in the stock markets than in the foreign exchange markets further the volatility clusters are shown to remain persistent for over a month and asymmetric across different time periods our findings have important implications for risk management a simulation study indicates that models which accommodate asymmetric volatility clustering can significantly improve the out of sample forecasts of value at risk

the environment and welfare implications of trade and tax policy developing countries with comparative advantage in dirty industries face the risk of environmental degradation unless appropriate policies are implemented using applied general equilibrium analysis we examine how trade influences the environment and assess the welfare and environmental implications of alternative pollution abatement policies for indonesia our results indicate that unilateral trade liberalization by indonesia would increase the ratio of emission levels to real output for almost all major pollution categories more importantly when tariff removal is combined with a cost effective tax policy the twin objectives of welfare enhancement and environmental quality improvement appear to be feasible this sheds new and positive light on the role of trade in sustainable development

industrial pollution in economic development the environmental kuznets curve revisited abstract using new international data this paper tests the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis for industrial water pollution we measure the effect of income growth on three determinants of pollution the share of industry in national output the share of polluting sectors in industrial output and end of pipe eop pollution intensities per unit of output in the polluting sectors we find that the industry share of national output follows a kuznets type trajectory but the other two determinants do not when combined our results imply rejection of the ekc hypothesis for industrial water pollution it rises rapidly through middle income status and remains roughly constant thereafter

high frequency volatility connectedness between the us crude oil market and china s agricultural commodity markets abstract this paper investigates the realised volatility connectedness of us crude oil futures and five china s agricultural commodity futures using connectedness measures and high frequency data time varying volatility connectedness characteristics are identified by combining a multivariate heteroscedastic autoregressive har model with the dcc garch model the results verify the existence of volatility spillover from the us crude oil market to china s agricultural commodity markets although the magnitude of this spillover is weak furthermore the realised volatility is decomposed into positive and negative components to identify the asymmetric effect of volatility connectedness the results show that market interdependence has obviously increased for negative volatility relative to positive volatility implying that volatility transmission has a leverage effect across markets

another look at the income elasticity of non point source air pollutants a semiparametric approach in this paper a semiparametric model is used to examine the relationship between pollution and income for three non point source pollutants statistical tests reject the quadratic specification in favor of the semiparametric model in all cases however the results do not support the inverted u hypothesis for the pollution income relationship

the toxic intensity of industrial production global patterns trends and trade policy this paper exploits a newly developed data set to investigate recent changes in the international distribution of industrial pollution in particular the authors examine three issues 1 the relationship between the toxic intensity of industrial production and the level of economic development 2 the impact of oecd environmental regulation on global changes in toxic intensity and 3 the relationship between trade policy and the toxic intensity of industrial production in ldc s 10 refs

economic development and co2 emissions a nonparametric panel approach we examine the empirical relation between co2 emissions per capita and gdp per capita during the period 1960 1996 using a panel of 100 countries relying on the nonparametric poolability test of baltagi et al baltagi b h hidalgo j li q 1996 a nonparametric test for poolability using panel data journal of econometrics 75 345 367 we find evidence of structural stability of the relationship we then specify a nonparametric panel data model with country specific effects estimation results show that this relationship is upward sloping nonparametric specification tests do not reject monotonicity but do reject the polynomial functional form which leads to the environmental kuznets curve in several studies

portfolio performance and the euro prospects for new potential emu members abstract entering the emu removes currency risk for assets originating in the euro area while diversification opportunities are likely reduced taking the perspective of an investor in one of the 12 countries that joined the eu in 2004 2007 we contrast actual optimal composition of international equity holdings against two artificial scenarios costless hedging against exchange rate risk and presuming the local market to be part of the emu state specific optimal portfolios are determined from realized covariances for the period 2000 2006 optimized risk is found smaller under currency unification and implied sharp ratios signal significant benefits of emu participation

confronting the environmental kuznets curve t he environmental kuznets curve posits an inverted u relationship between pollution and economic development kuznets s name was apparently attached to the curve by grossman and krueger 1993 who noted its resemblance to kuznets s inverted u relationship between income inequality and development in the first stage of industrialization pollution in the environmental kuznets curve world grows rapidly because people are more interested in jobs and income than clean air and water communities are too poor to pay for abatement and environmental regulation is correspondingly weak the balance shifts as income rises leading industrial sectors become cleaner people value the environment more highly and regulatory institutions become more effective along the curve pollution levels off in the middle income range and then falls toward pre industrial levels in wealthy societies the environmental kuznets curve model has elicited conflicting reactions from researchers and policymakers applied econometricians have generally accepted the basic tenets of the model and focused on measuring its parameters their regressions typically fitted to cross sectional observations across countries or regions suggest that air and water pollution increase with development until per capita income reaches a range of 5000 to 8000 when income rises beyond that level pollution starts to decline as shown in the conventional ekc line in figure 1 in developing countries some policymakers have interpreted such results as conveying a message about priorities grow first then clean up numerous critics have challenged the conventional environmental kuznets curve both as a representation of what actually happens in the development process and as a policy prescription some pessimistic critics argue that crosssectional evidence for the environmental kuznets curve is nothing more than a

empirical asymmetries in foreign direct investment and taxation abstract this paper assesses the sensitivity of the operations of multinational corporations mncs to host country taxation the empirical analysis is based on two different measures of mnc activity by u s majority owned foreign affiliates panel data for aggregate real gross product in manufacturing that originates in a given host country and micro data for a single year regarding the likelihood of a firm locating in a given host country the empirical estimates indicate that investment geared toward export markets rather than the domestic market is particularly sensitive to host country taxation that this sensitivity appears to be greater in developing countries than developed countries and that it is becoming greater over time

roughing it up including jump components in the measurement modeling and forecasting of return volatility a rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in financial return volatility measurement and forecasting via use of realized variation measures constructed from high frequency returns coupled with simple modeling procedures building on recent theoretical results in barndorff nielsen and shephard 2004a 2005 for related bi power variation measures the present paper provides a practical and robust framework for non parametrically measuring the jump component in asset return volatility in an application to the dm exchange rate the s p500 market index and the 30 year u s treasury bond yield we find that jumps are both highly prevalent and distinctly less persistent than the continuous sample path variation process moreover many jumps appear directly associated with specific macroeconomic news announcements separating jump from non jump movements in a simple but sophisticated volatility forecasting model we find that almost all of the predictability in daily weekly and monthly return volatilities comes from the non jump component our results thus set the stage for a number of interesting future econometric developments and important financial applications by separately modeling forecasting and pricing the continuous and jump components of the total return variation process

dealing with uncertainty in agent based simulation farm level modeling of adaptation to climate change in southwest germany climate change will most likely confront agricultural producers with natural economic and political conditions that have not previously been observed and are largely uncertain as a consequence extrapolation from past data reaches its limits and a process based analysis of farmer adaptation is required simulation of changes in crop yields using crop growth models is a first step in that direction however changes in crop yields are only one pathway through which climate change affects agricultural production a meaningful process based analysis of farmer adaptation requires a whole farm analysis at the farm level we use a highly disaggregated mathematical programming model to analyze farm level climate change adaptation for a mountainous area in southwest germany regional level results are obtained by simulating each full time farm holding in the study area we address parameter uncertainty and model underdetermination using a cautious calibration approach and a comprehensive uncertainty analysis we deal with the resulting computational burden using efficient experimental designs and high performance computing we show that in our study area shifted crop management time slots can have potentially significant effects on agricultural supply incomes and various policy objectives promoted under german and european environmental policy schemes the simulated effects are robust against model uncertainty and underline the importance of a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts beyond merely looking at crop yield changes our simulations demonstrate how farm level models can contribute to a process based analysis of climate change adaptation if they are embedded into a systematic framework for treating inherent model uncertainty

modeling microstructure price dynamics with symmetric hawkes and diffusion model using ultra high frequency stock data this study examines the theoretical and empirical perspectives of the symmetric hawkes model of the price tick structure combined with the maximum likelihood estimation the model provides a proper method of volatility estimation specialized in ultra high frequency analysis empirical studies based on the model using the ultra high frequency data of stocks in the s p 500 are performed the performance of the volatility measure intraday estimation and the dynamics of the parameters are discussed a new approach of diffusion analogy to the symmetric hawkes model is proposed with the distributional properties very close to the hawkes model as a diffusion process the model provides more analytical simplicity when computing the variance formula incorporating skewness and examining the probabilistic property an estimation of the diffusion model is performed using the simulated maximum likelihood method and shows similar patterns to the hawkes model

measuring inflation expectations uncertainty using high frequency data inflation expectations play a key role in determining future economic outcomes the associated uncertainty provides a direct gauge of how well anchored the inflation expectations are we construct a model based measure of inflation expectations uncertainty by augmenting a standard unobserved components model of inflation with information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations obtained from financial markets this new model based measure of inflation expectations uncertainty is more accurately estimated and can provide valuable information for policymakers using u s data we find significant changes in inflation expectations uncertainty during the great recession

environmental kuznets curve for co2 in canada abstract according to the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis the relationship between per capita gdp and per capita pollutant emissions has an inverted u shape this implies that past a certain point economic growth may actually be profitable for environmental quality most studies on this subject are based on estimating fully parametric quadratic or cubic regression models while this is not technically wrong such an approach somewhat lacks flexibility since it may fail to detect the true shape of the relationship if it happens not to be of the specified form we use semiparametric and flexible nonlinear parametric modeling methods in an attempt to provide more robust inferences we find little evidence in favour of the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis our main results could be interpreted as indicating that the oil shock of the 1970s has had an important impact on progress towards less polluting technology and production

the relation between implied and realized volatility abstract previous research finds the volatility implied by s p 100 index option prices to be a biased and inefficient forecast of future volatility and to contain little or no incremental information beyond that in past realized volatility in contrast we find that implied volatility outperforms past volatility in forecasting future volatility and even subsumes the information content of past volatility in some of our specifications our results differ from previous studies because we use longer time series and nonoverlapping data a regime shift around the october 1987 crash explains why implied volatility is more biased in previous work

a theoretical comparison between integrated and realized volatility in this paper we provide both qualitative and quantitative measures of the precision of measuring integrated volatility by realized volatility for a fixed frequency of observation we start by characterizing for a general diffusion the difference between realized and integrated volatility for a given frequency of observation then we compute the mean and variance of this noise and the correlation between the noise and the integrated volatility in the eigenfunction stochastic volatility model of meddahi 2001a this model has as special cases log normal affine and garch diffusion models using previous empirical results we show that the noise is substantial compared with the unconditional mean and variance of integrated volatility even if one employs five minute returns we also propose a simple approach to capture the information about integrated volatility contained in the returns through the leverage effect we show that in practice the leverage effect does not matter copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

a conditional extreme value volatility estimator based on high frequency returns abstract this paper introduces a conditional extreme value volatility estimator evt based on high frequency returns the relative performance of the evt is compared with the discrete time garch and implied volatility models for 1 day and 20 day ahead forecasts of realized volatility this is also a first attempt towards detecting any time series variation in extreme value distributions using high frequency intraday data the information content of evt is examined in the context of forecasting sp 2 vix generally yields a less accurate characterization of realized volatility than evt and garch models these results have implications for financial risk management and are thus relevant to both regulators and practitioners

do corporate global environmental standards create or destroy market value arguments can be made on both sides of the question of whether a stringent global corporate environmental standard represents a competitive asset or liability for multinational enterprises mnes investing in emerging and developing markets analyzing the global environmental standards of a sample of u s based mnes in relation to their stock market performance we find that firms adopting a single stringent global environmental standard have much higher market values as measured by tobin sq than firms defaulting to less stringent or poorly enforced host country standards thus developing countries that use lax environmental regulations to attract foreign direct investment may end up attracting poorer quality and perhaps less competitive firms our results also suggest that externalities are incorporated to a significant extent in firm valuation we discuss plausible reasons for this observation

continuous time models realized volatilities and testable distributional implications for daily stock returns we provide an empirical framework for assessing the distributional properties of daily speculative returns within the context of the continuous time jump diffusion models traditionally used in asset pricing finance our approach builds directly on recently developed realized variation measures and non parametric jump detection statistics constructed from high frequency intra day data a sequence of simple to implement moment based tests involving various transformations of the daily returns speak directly to the importance of different distributional features and may serve as useful diagnostic tools in the specification of empirically more realistic continuous time asset pricing models on applying the tests to the 30 individual stocks in the dow jones industrial average index we find that it is important to allow for both time varying diffusive volatility jumps and leverage effects to satisfactorily describe the daily stock price dynamics copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

determinants of pollution abatement in developing countries evidence from south and southeast asia abstract developing countries pa ticularly those in asia are fast adopting industrial pollution control standards similar to those in developed countries formal regulation has been greatly hampered however by the absence of clear and legally binding regulations limited institutional capacity lack of appropriate equipment and trained personnel and inadequate information on emissions one would predict highly pollution intensive production under such conditions our research however has uncovered strongly contradictory evidence despite weak or nonexistent formal regulation there are many clean plants in the developing countries of south and southeast asia of course there are also many plants which are among the world s most serious polluters what explains such extreme interplant variation this paper reviews evidence drawn from three empirical studies of plant level abatement practices conducted 1992 1994 the analyses test the importance of plant characteristics economic considerations and external pressure in determining environmental performance the results consistently show that pollution intensity is negatively associated with scale productive efficiency and the use of new process technology it is strongly and positively associated with public ownership but foreign ownership has no significant effect once other plant characteristics are taken into account among external sources of pressure community action or informal regulation emerges as a clear source of interplant differences in all three studies the results suggest that local income and education are powerful predictors of the effectiveness of informal regulation they also show that existing formal regulation has measurably beneficial effects even when it is quite weakly developed

forecasting realized volatility a bayesian model averaging approach summary how to measure and model volatility is an important issue in finance recent research uses high frequency intraday data to construct ex post measures of daily volatility this paper uses a bayesian modelaveraging approach to forecast realized volatility candidate models include autoregressive and heterogeneous autoregressive specifications based on the logarithm of realized volatility realized power variation realized bipower variation a jump and an asymmetric term applied to equity and exchange rate volatility over several forecast horizons bayesian model averaging provides very competitive density forecasts and modest improvements in point forecasts compared to benchmark models we discuss the reasons for this including the importance of using realized power variation as a predictor bayesian model averaging provides further improvements to density forecasts when we move away from linear models and average over specifications that allow for garch effects in the innovations to log volatility copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

dirty industries patterns of change in industrial countries this article concerns itself with the environmental role of heavily polluting industries since 1970 analysing its development in 11 basic industries as well as electricity production and road transport in 32 industrial countries it argues for a green industrial policy demonstrating that other mitigations of environmental pressure in industrial countries end of pipe treatment relocation to the third world structural change in the industrial sector and even environmentally oriented modernization have so far been unable to solve the problems of dirty industries although some approaches have shown some promise

the impact of environmental management on firm performance environmental management has the potential to play a pivotal role in the financial performance of the firm many individuals suggest that profitability is hurt by the higher production costs of environmental management initiatives while others cite anecdotal evidence of increased profitability a theoretical model is proposed that links strong environmental management to improved perceived future financial performance as measured by stock market performance the linkage to firm performance is tested empirically using financial event methodology and archival data of firm level environmental and financial performance significant positive returns were measured for strong environmental management as indicated by environmental performance awards and significant negative returns were measured for weak environmental management as indicated by environmental crises the implicit financial market valuation of these events also was estimated cross sectional analysis of the environmental award events revealed differences for first time awards and between industries first time award announcements were associated with greater increases in market valuation although smaller increases were observed for firms in environmentally dirty industries possibly indicative of market skepticism this linkage between environmental management and financial performance can be used by both researchers and practitioners as one measure of the benefits experienced by industry leaders and as one criterion against which to measure investment alternatives

news good or bad and its impact on volatility predictions over multiple horizons we examine whether the sign and magnitude of intra daily returns have impact on expected volatility the next day or over longer future horizons we first let the data speak namely with minimal interference we capture the mapping between intra daily returns and future volatility we revisit the concept of news impact curves introduced by engle and ng 1993 overall we find that moderately good intra daily news reduces volatility the next day while both very good news unusual high intra daily positive returns and bad news negative returns increase volatility with the latter having a more severe impact the asymmetries disappear over longer horizons we also introduce a new class of parametric models which feature asymmetries and with close ties to arch type models albeit applicable to a mixture of high and low frequency data models featuring asymmetries dominate especially during the 2007 2008 financial crisis

estimating quadratic variation using realized variance this paper looks at some recent work on estimating quadratic variation using realised variance rv that is sums of m squared returns this econometrics has been motivated by the advent of the common availability of high frequency financial return data when the underlying process is a semimartingale we recall the fundamental result that rv is a consistent as m estimator of quadratic variation qv we express concern that without additional assumptions it seems difficult to give any measure of uncertainty of the rv in this context the position dramatically changes when we work with a rather general sv model which is a special case of the semimartingale model then qv is integrated variance and we can derive the asymptotic distribution of the rv and its rate of convergence these results do not require us to specify a model for either the drift or volatility functions although we have to impose some weak regularity assumptions we illustrate the use of the limit theory on some exchange rate data and some stock data we show that even with large values of m the rv is sometimes a quite noisy estimator of integrated variance

forecasting currency volatility a comparison of implied volatilities and ar fi ma models we compare forecasts of the realized volatility of the pound mark and yen exchange rates against the dollar calculated from intraday rates over horizons ranging from one day to three months our forecasts are obtained from a short memory arma model a long memory arfima model a garch model and option implied volatilities we find intraday rates provide the most accurate forecasts for the one day and one week forecast horizons while implied volatilities are at least as accurate as the historical forecasts for the one month and three month horizons the superior accuracy of the historical forecasts relative to implied volatilities comes from the use of high frequency returns and not from a long memory specification we find significant incremental information in historical forecasts beyond the implied volatility information for forecast horizons up to one week

searching for a kuznets curve in environmental efficiency using kernel estimation abstract the paper constructs environmental efficiency indexes for a sample consisting of high and low income countries using nonparametric production frontier techniques and then establishes an environmental kuznets relationship for environmental efficiency by nadaraya watson kernel estimation methodology

path dependence without increasing returns to scale and network externalities abstract the paper presents a simple model of a locked in situation recent literature on path dependence has explained locked in situations with increasing returns to scale or network externalities the model of this paper is a model of a single firm there is no network of different agents with a given size there are no economies of scale our analyses shows that complementarity of a firm s assets and sunk costs can be sufficient for path dependence

the persistence of volatility and stock market fluctuations this paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market prices it demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated implying that shocks to volatility do not persist these shocks can therefore have only a small impact on stockmarket prices since changes in volatility affect expected required rates of return for relatively short intervals these findings lead us to be skeptical of recent claims that the stock market s poor performance during the 1970 s can be explained by volatility induced increases in risk premia this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

option implied expectations in commodity markets and monetary policy abstract in this paper we estimate the dynamic interactions between option implied variance and skewness in agricultural commodity markets and monetary policy using a structural vector autoregressive svar framework we find that an expansionary contractionary monetary policy upwardly downwardly revises commodity markets expectations about the price and volatility path of agricultural products on the other hand our empirical analysis reveals that monetary policy does not have a systematic and timely response to sudden changes in option implied expectations of commodity investors in addition we provide empirical evidence showing the robust forecasting power of agricultural option implied information on monetary policy with r 2 values reaching almost 52

economic structure development policy and environmental quality an empirical analysis of environmental kuznets curves with chinese municipal data in many cases the relationship between environmental pollution and economic development can be generally depicted by an inverted u shaped curve or an environmental kuznets curve where pollution increases with income at the beginning and decreases after a certain level of income however what determine the shape of an enviornmental kuznets curve such as the height and the turning point of the curve have not been thoroughly studied a good understanding of the determinants is vitally important to the development community especially for the developing world where income growth is a high priority and yet environmental pollution also needs to be carefully controlled this study analyzes the impacts of economic structure development strategy and environmental regulation on the shape of the environmental kuznets curve with a city level panel dataset obtained from china the results show that economic structure development strategy and environmental regulation can all have important implications on the relationship between environmental environmental quality and economic development but the impacts can be different at different development stages

improving markov switching models using realized variance this paper proposes a class of models that jointly model returns and ex post variance measures under a markov switching framework both univariate and multivariate return versions of the model are introduced bayesian estimation can be conducted under a fixed dimension state space or an infinite one the proposed models can be seen as nonlinear common factor models subject to markov switching and are able to exploit the information content in both returns and ex post volatility measures applications to u s equity returns and foreign exchange rates compare the proposed models to existing alternatives the empirical results show that the joint models improve density forecasts for returns and point predictions of return variance the joint markov switching models can increase the precision of parameter estimates and sharpen the inference of the latent state variable

corruption pollution and the kuznets environment curve abstract this paper examines the implications of corruption and rent seeking behavior by the government for the relationship between pollution and growth cases of both cooperative and non cooperative interaction between the government and the private firm are studied it is shown that corruption is not likely to preclude the existence of an inverted u shaped kuznets environmental curve under both these cases however for any level of per capita income the pollution levels corresponding to corrupt behavior are always above the socially optimal level further the turning point of the kuznets curve takes place at income and pollution levels above those corresponding to the social optimum

the introduction of the euro and its effects on portfolio decisions abstract examining investment behavior related to the euro introduction we address the relevance of different investment determinants with the advent of the currency union two potential sources of portfolio reallocation can be distinguished first the diminishment of exchange rate risk and transaction costs within the emu second the increase of correlation of emu returns so that diversification benefits decreased we test for structural breaks in the holdings of german investors and estimate a market model to account for the two effects a significant decrease in national and an increase in emu and rest of the world investments can be observed comparing the observed holdings with benchmark portfolios we find that investment home bias has diminished since the euro introduction

an overlapping generations model of growth and the environment this article analyzes the potential conflict between economic growth and the maintenance of environmental quality in an overlapping generations model short lived individuals make decisions which have long lasting effects on both factor productivity and the environment the model provides a theoretical explanation of observed correlations between environmental quality and income whereby economic growth is associated first with declines then improvements in environmental quality it suggests circumstances in which multiple pareto ranked steady state equilibria may arise and in which sustained growth of both capital and environmental quality may occur overmaintenance of the environment analogous to dynamically inefficient overaccumulation of capital may emerge copyright 1994 by royal economic society

energy consumption and income a semiparametric panel data analysis this paper proposes a semiparametric analysis for the study of the relationship between energy consumption per capita and income per capita for an international panel dataset it shows little evidence for the existence of an environmental kuznets curve for energy consumption energy consumption increases with income for a majority of countries and then stabilizes for very high income countries neither changes in energy structure nor macroeconomic cycle technological change have significant effect on energy consumption

international investment location decisions abstract in international location tournaments governments compete for foreign investment with tax and other short run incentives such tournaments can be won if agglomeration economies are sufficiently powerful to overcome investors desire to spread investments as a hedge against risk we focus on manufacturing investments by u s multinationals in the 1980s our econometric results suggest that agglomeration economies are indeed the dominant influence on investor calculations paradoxically short run incentives have limited apparent impact on location choice we conclude that high cost tournament play is unnecessary for countries with good infrastructure development specialized input suppliers and an expanding domestic market