a history friendly model of the successive changes in industrial leadership and the catch up by latecomers abstract successive changes in industrial leadership between both firms and countries described here as catch up cycles have been common in several sectors this article develops a history friendly model to explore the role played by technological conditions in the emergence of such leadership changes the model is inspired by two cases where the emergence of disruptively novel technology played an important role mobile phones and semiconductors in the baseline setting the model is able to generate the benchmark case of three cycles with two leadership changes in particular the simulation analysis reveals that a the more disruptive the new technology and the lower the incumbents capabilities the greater the shake up of market shares between incumbents and latecomers b leadership change is more likely to occur when it coincides with certain responses by the actors to the technological disruption such as a high lock in behaviour on the part of incumbents and c a technology driven change of industrial leadership is more likely to occur in the presence of increasing returns to technological investments the counterfactual experiments show that different catch up dynamics can emerge depending on the magnitude of technological disruption the degree of lock ins the shape of technological landscape and incumbents initial capabilities in particular four other types of catch up cycle are generated the aborted cycle persistent leadership return of the old leadership and coexistence in leadership between latecomers and incumbents each of these cycles is identified with a specific historical case of catch up

catch up cycles and changes in industrial leadership windows of opportunity and responses of firms and countries in the evolution of sectoral systems this study proposes a framework that aims to explain why successive changes in industry leadership called also the catch up cycle occur over time in a sector in catch up cycles latecomer firms and countries emerge as international leaders whereas incumbents lose their previous positions new leaders are then dethroned by newcomers to identify factors at the base of catch up cycles this article adopts a sectoral system framework and identifies windows of opportunity that may emerge during the long run evolution of an industry this study proposes three windows related to the specific dimensions of a sectoral system one dimension is related to changes in knowledge and technology the second dimension pertains to changes in demand and the third includes changes in institutions and public policy the combination of the opening of a window technological demand or institutional policy and the responses of firms and other components of the sectoral system of the latecomer and incumbent countries determines changes in industrial leadership and catch up sectors differ according to the type of windows that may open and the responses of firms and other components of systems empirical evidence of catch up cycles is presented from six sectors namely mobile phones cameras semiconductors steel mid sized jets and wines

nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in propagation of the great depression this paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period our approach is complementary to that of friedman and schwartz who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures we focus on non monetary primarily credit related aspects of the financial sector output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system we argue that the financial disruptions of 1930 33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the great depression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

liquidity constraints and labor supply abstract in this paper we shed some light on how restrictions in financial markets the so called liquidity constraints might act in affecting labour supply decisions of italian workers one way to neutralize the existence of binding liquidity constraints is simply by supplying additional labor instead of reducing consumption we estimate whether resorting to additional labor supply as a smoothing consumption device is at work by using the italian survey of households income and wealth shiw the longitudinal dimension of the shiw dataset allows us to control for individual unobserved heterogeneity we also use an iv strategy to address the endogeneity of our measure for credit constraints in labor supply equations due to time varying factors our results show that liquidity constraints increase the intensity in the supply of men s labor constrained men work on average 4 hours more than their unconstrained counterpart self employed workers turn out to be more sensitive to binding liquidity constraints possibly because they are more flexible in adjusting the intensity of their labor supply

foreign ownership and corporate income taxation an empirical evaluation abstract foreign ownership allows countries to effectively export part of their corporate tax burden hence countries with high foreign ownership are expected to impose relatively high corporate taxes the findings of this paper suggest that there indeed is an economically significant positive relationship between foreign ownership and tax burdens in europe already significant foreign ownership levels in europe offer an explanation for the absence of a race to the bottom in corporate tax levels

banking development socioeconomic structure and income inequality abstract using rich unique data from the italian local credit markets provinces this paper investigates the impact of local banking development on income inequality and the role of the socioeconomic structure in this link exploiting the italian historical banking regulation to instrument for the local presence of bank branches we find that local banking development mitigates income inequality however the finance inequality nexus manifests itself only in relatively advanced areas when we study the structural channels of influence we uncover evidence that banking development can reduce inequality by affecting geographical mobility and urbanization while it has modest effects through the development of material infrastructures and human capital

the finance growth nexus evidence from bank branch deregulation this paper provides evidence that financial markets can directly affect economic growth by studying the relaxation of bank branch restrictions in the united states we find that the rates of real per capita growth in income and output increase significantly following intrastate branch reform we also argue that the observed changes in growth are the result of changes in the banking system improvements in the quality of bank lending not increased volume of bank lending appear to be responsible for faster growth

financial intermediation and endogenous growth an endogenous growth model with multiple assets is developed agents who face random future liquidity needs accumulate capital and a liquid but unproductive asset the effects of introducing financial intermediation into this environment are considered conditions are provided under which the introduction of intermediaries shifts the composition of savings toward capital causing intermediation to be growth promoting in addition intermediaries generally reduce socially unnecessary capital liquidation again tending to promote growth

financial integration capital mobility and income convergence recent studies have found that capital moves uphill from poor to rich countries and brings little or no growth dividend when it does flow into poor economies we show that europe does not conform to this paradigm in the european experience of financial integration capital has flown from rich to poor countries and such inflows have been associated with significant acceleration of income convergence analysing broader samples of countries we find that downhill capital flows tend to be observed above certain thresholds in institutional quality and financial integration but europe remains different even when allowing for such threshold effects and its experience is similar to that of interstate flows within the united states our findings are consistent with the notion that financial diversification reduces countries incentives to save in order to self insure against specific shocks abdul abiad daniel leigh and ashoka mody

financial development and intersectoral allocation a new approach this paper uses a new methodology based on industry comovement to examine the role of financial market development in intersectoral allocation based on the assumption that there exist common global shocks to growth opportunities we hypothesize that country pairs should have correlated patterns of sectoral growth if they are able to respond to these shocks consistent with financial markets promoting responsiveness to shocks countries have more highly correlated growth rates across sectors when both countries have well developed financial markets this effect is stronger between country pairs at similar levels of economic development which are more likely to experience similar growth shocks copyright 2004 by the american finance association

bank mergers and crime the real and social effects of credit market competition using a unique sample of commercial loans and mergers between large banks we provide micro level within county evidence linking credit conditions to economic development and find a spillover effect on crime neighborhoods that experience more bank mergers are subject to higher interest rates diminished local construction lower prices an influx of poorer households and higher property crime in subsequent years the elasticity of property crime with respect to merger induced banking concentration is 0 18 we show that these results are not likely due to reverse causation and confirm the central findings using state branching deregulation to instrument for bank competition we examine the real and social impact of local credit competition by documenting a link between the competitiveness of the local banking market credit conditions urban development and crime several recent studies peek and rosengren 2000 cetorelli and gambera 2001 klein peek and rosengren 2002 and burgess and pande 2003 tie credit market imperfections to diminished real economic activity and growth other studies connect the economic environment to property crime freeman 1999 levitt 2001 raphael and winter ebmer 2001 and nilsson 2004 it is reasonable to hypothesize therefore that reductions in bank competition may lead to economic decline and subsequently increases in property crime we empirically investigate the effects of bank consolidation and increased market power on credit availability and real activity using a unique sample of commercial loans and mergers between large banks in the 1990s we provide micro level evidence that garmaise is from the ucla anderson school and moskowitz is from the graduate school of business university of chicago and nber we have benefited from the suggestions and comments of tony bernardo marianne bertrand phillip bond doug diamond mark duggan eugene fama

regional growth and finance in europe is there a quality effect of bank efficiency abstract in this study we test whether regional growth in 11 european countries depends on financial development and suggest the use of cost and profit efficiency estimates as quality measures of financial institutions contrary to the usual quantitative proxies of financial development the quality of financial institutions is measured in this study as the relative ability of banks to intermediate funds an improvement in bank efficiency spurs five times more regional growth then an identical increase in credit does more credit provided by efficient banks exerts an independent growth effect in addition to direct quantity and quality channel effects

cultural industries in international business research progress and prospect cultural industries systems of organizations that produce and distribute cultural goods with substantive symbolic aesthetic or artistic value represent an important exciting and complex context that receives growing scholarly attention as the first review of management research on cultural industries this paper aims to provide a systematic synthesis of current research summarizing distinctive characteristics of cultural industries and highlighting research gaps we also illustrate how the unique nature dynamics and evolution of cultural industries provide opportunities to broaden international business theories in four research themes i e internationalization strategy cross border innovation social inclusion in the global economy and emerging market research

technological regimes catching up and leapfrogging findings from the korean industries abstract this paper examines the experiences of selected industries in korea to identify the stylized facts in the process of technological capability building and thereby to sort out the conditions for the catching up to occur to explain the process we have built a model of technological and market catching up a special attention has been given to the question of whether there has been a case of leapfrogging in any industry in korea and if so what are the conditions for its incidence in our framework we first measure the degree of catching up in terms of market shares in the world then we focus on catching up in technological capabilities in explaining the different record and prospects of korean industries in market catching up in the model technological capability is determined as a function of both technological effort and the existing knowledge base as determinants of technological effort we look at the technological regimes of the industries such as cumulativeness of technical advances fluidity predictability of technological trajectory and the properties of knowledge base using this model we explain the different technological evolution of the selected industries in korea including the d ram automobile mobile phone consumer electronics personal computer and machine tool industries we find three different patterns of catching ups path creating catching up cdma mobile phone path skipping catching up d ram and automobile and path following catching up consumer electronics personal computers and machine tools we interpret the first two case of catching up as leapfrogging unlike the argument by perez and soete perez c soete l 1988 catching up in technology entry barriers and windows of opportunity in dosi et al eds technical change and economic theory pinter publishers london we find that important r d projects except automobiles where only private r d was involved involved both private and public capacities and that entry was not driven by endogenous generation of knowledge and skills but by collaboration with foreign companies

the real costs of credit access evidence from the payday lending market using geographic differences in the availability of payday loans i estimate the real effects of credit access among low income households payday loans are small high interest rate loans that constitute the marginal source of credit for many high risk borrowers i find no evidence that payday loans alleviate economic hardship to the contrary loan access leads to increased difficulty paying mortgage rent and utilities bills the empirical design isolates variation in loan access that is uninfluenced by lenders location decisions and state regulatory decisions two factors that might otherwise correlate with economic hardship measures further analysis of differences in loan availability over time and across income groups rules out a number of alternative explanations for the estimated effects counter to the view that improving credit access facilitates important expenditures the results suggest that for some low income households the debt service burden imposed by borrowing inhibits their ability to pay important bills copyright 2011 oxford university press

gradual catch up and enduring leadership in the global wine industry the wine industry is an extremely interesting sector from a catch up point of view because the latecomers in the international market have changed how wine is produced sold and consumed and in doing so they have challenged the positions of incumbents until the end of the 1980s the european countries and particularly france and italy dominated the international market for wine subsequently significant changes in the market namely decreases in consumption by traditional consuming countries the entry of new inexperienced consumers and the increasing importance of large distribution have threatened this supremacy initially the usa and australia and later emerging countries such as chile and south africa gained increasing market shares in both exported volumes and value at the expense of incumbents however some of these newcomers e g australia have shown slower growth opening opportunities for newer entrants such as argentina and new zealand at the same time some of the incumbents especially italy have innovated challenging the leadership of france in key markets such as the usa in this article we investigate the different catch up cycles in the global wine sector that occurred between the 1960s and 2010 through a detailed analysis of export volumes values and unit prices we address issues related to the increasing share in the global market of latecomer countries and the relative decline of the incumbents as well as possible changes in the market leadership within these two groups

public policy and catching up by developing countries in global industries a simulation model this paper examines the effects of different public policies strengthening capability building favouring firms learning protectionism and support of entry of new domestic firms on the catch up of a latecomer with respect to an incumbent country in changing and uncertain technological environments the effects of these policies are analysed with a simulation model first separately and then jointly to assess possible complementarities we reach several results first we confirm that capability building and firms learning are important drivers of catch up second we find that when a large technological discontinuity takes place entry support favours catch up while protectionism has the opposite effect protectionism favours catch up only when no technological discontinuity opens up third we find that depending on the technological conditions different policy complementarities exist therefore different policy mixes should be at the base of a country catch up strategy these results add to the previous literature on public policy and catching up by developing countries in an industry by distinguishing the different effects of various types of public policy and relating them to the technological conditions that are present in an industry

local financial development and household welfare in vietnam evidence from a panel survey we examine the impact of local financial development on household welfare in vietnam we employ household level panel data for the periods 2007 2008 2010 and 2013 covering three provinces and mea

three decades of italian comparative advantages he structure of italian exports its characteristics its changes over time its causes and implications in terms of income and growth employment and fragility with respect to domestic and international shocks has been the issue around which at least three generations of italian economists have discussed and disagreed over the last 30 years if one has to attribute to one single cause the origin of this multi faceted debate that very cause would be the perplexity associated with the evidence of italy being on the one hand a large industrialised country with per capita income comparable to the top high income oecd members world bank 2004 and on the other hand being characterised by an export composition where traditional low skilled labour intensive sectors oecd 2001 and peneder 2003 such as textiles wearing apparel leather products furniture and footwear still play a relevant role this anomaly in the italian trade structure with respect to one of its fellow members of the g7 and its high level of persistence is what makes of italy a case in the international trading system this paper describes the primary feature giving rise to this debate the italian export composition and its evolution over time the analysis makes use of the revealed comparative advantage rca index associated with the name of bela balassa and through non parametric statistical techniques estimates the empirical the author is very grateful to miur prin pie 2003 and jetro for the financial support and to giancarlo spagnolo for his encouragement discussions with matteo bugamelli giuliano conti davide castellani sergio de nardis paolo guerrieri fabrizio onida and lucia tajoli are gratefully acknowledged the author thanks riccardo faini for sharing his work on the topic and lucia piscitello for making her districts taxonomy available he also benefited from the comments of two anonymous referees that largely influenced the restructuring of the paper many of the arguments of this paper come from the inspiring discussions the author had over the years with massimo tamberi all remaining errors and omissions are the author s own responsibility the data sets and the rscript used in the paper can be downloaded from the webpage http www economiamc org debenedictis

personal bankruptcy and credit supply and demand this paper examines how personal bankruptcy and bankruptcy exemptions affect the supply and demand for credit while generous state level bankruptcy exemptions are probably viewed by most policy makers as benefiting less well off borrowers our results using data from the 1983 survey of consumer finances suggest that they increase the amount of credit held by high asset households and reduce the availability and amount of credit to low asset households conditioning on observable characteristics thus bankruptcy exemptions redistribute credit toward borrowers with high assets interest rates on automobile loans for low asset households also appear to be higher in high exemption states

international integration risk and the welfare state how does international integration affect the welfare state does it call for a leaner or an expanded welfare state international integration may affect the distortions caused by welfare state activities but also the risks motivating social insurance mechanisms this paper addresses these potentially counteracting effects in a fully specified intertemporal two country stochastic endowment model focusing on the implications when product market integration reduces trade frictions across national product markets it is shown that lower trade frictions may increase the marginal costs of public funds which gives an argument for reducing steady state public consumption however tighter integration of product markets unambiguously leads to more variability in private consumption and this gives a case for expanding the social insurance provided via state contingent public sector activities automatic stabilizers jel classification e30 f10 h11

regulation and preemptive technology adoption two rival firms must decide if and when to adopt a new technology knowing how adoption costs decline over time and how profit flows vary with adoption patterns in many cases price and entry regulations beneficially slow technology adoption by making preemption strategies less attractive in some cases these regulations can so discourage a firm from preemption as to change the order in which firms adopt new technologies speeding one firm s adoption date and slowing the other s in the context of a particular scenario for cable and telephone companies adoption of new fiber optic technologies the case for lifting the cross ownership ban depends on the extent to which telephone companies are able to implement a superior technology reregulation of cable companies strengthens this case

sectoral patterns of technical change towards a taxonomy and a theory abstract the purpose of the paper is to describe and explain sectoral patterns of technical change as revealed by data on about 2000 significant innovations in britain since 1945 most technological knowledge turns out not to be information that is generally applicable and easily reproducible but specific to firms and applications cumulative in development and varied amongst sectors in source and direction innovating firms principally in electronics and chemicals are relatively big and they develop innovations over a wide range of specific product groups within their principal sector but relatively few outside firms principally in mechanical and instrument engineering are relatively small and specialised and they exist in symbiosis with large firms in scale intensive sectors like metal manufacture and vehicles who make a significant contribution to their own process technology in textile firms on the other hand most process innovations come from suppliers these characteristics and variations can be classified in a three part taxonomy based on firms 1 supplier dominated 2 production intensive 3 science based they can be explained by sources of technology requirements of users and possibilities for appropriation this explanation has implications for our understanding of the sources and directions of technical change firms diversification behaviour the dynamic relationship between technology and industrial structure and the formation of technological skills and advantages at the level of the firm the region and the country

the made in effect and leapfrogging a model of leadership change for products with country of origin bias abstract change in industrial leadership is often explained in terms of technological and costs advantages however firms in emerging economies not only have to produce high quality cost competitive goods but also win the resistance of consumers in the world market who are often adverse to purchasing products from countries that yet have to build a reputation we argue that this country of origin bias significantly influences the chances of leadership change a model that aims at capturing the endogenous dynamics of demand building and leapfrogging is proposed we show that in sectors with high monopoly power acquiring a superior technology is not sufficient for a latecomer country to become leader unless a significant share of consumers is aware of the quality of its products an extension of the model to multiple sectors shows that a latecomer country remains specialized into low value undifferentiated goods even after overtaking the technology of the leading country

what constrains financial inclusion for women evidence from indian micro data summary the role and relevance of gender in financial inclusion has been an evolving area of research in recent times although there are several cross country studies on this aspect few within country studies have addressed this issue in a comprehensive manner in this context exploiting disaggregated household level data for india we analyze the interface between gender and finance more specifically we examine whether gender matters for financial inclusion and if so what are the possible factors that influence this relationship our findings suggest significant disparity in both the access to as well as the use of finance by gender on average female headed households are 8 less likely to access formal finance and 6 more likely to access informal finance as compared to households that are headed by males after taking into account other relevant household and state level characteristics that are important in explaining financial access by households similar evidence carries over to the use of finance households headed by female use 20 less cash loans as compared to male headed households subsequently we investigate the possible channels which impede financial inclusion for female headed households our analysis highlights that for female headed households education and wages are more relevant in explaining the access to finance whereas political and social factors are much more germane in explaining the use of finance

the impact of regional financial depth on outbound cross border mergers and acquisitions abstract drawing on china s experience this study examines the role of source province credit conditions and its interplay with host country financial openness in determining the intensity of cross border mergers and acquisitions m as we first show that improved credit conditions in source provinces of china measured by the number of newly established bank branches boost the volume and frequency of their firms cross border m as the effect is stronger for deals where cash is mainly used as the payment method then we identify a complementary effect between the financial openness in host countries and the improved financial depth in source regions more importantly by defining the members of china s the belt and road initiative as countries with higher political openness to china we find that acquirers in china especially the firms affiliated to central government are more political oriented than market oriented when choosing target countries additionally we show that acquirers facing lower political uncertainty from source province benefit more from the enhanced bank access

financial development and pathways of growth state branching and deposit insurance laws in the united states 1900 1940 abstract this paper studies the effect of state level banking regulation on financial development and on components of state level growth in the united states from 1900 to 1940 we use these banking laws to assess the findings of a large recent literature that has argued that financial development contributes to economic growth we contend that the institutional mechanism leading to financial development is important in determining its consequences and that some types of financial development can even retard economic growth for the united states from 1900 to 1940 we argue that the financial expansion induced by expanded bank branching accelerated the mechanization of agriculture and spurred growth in manufacturing in contrast financial expansions induced by state deposit insurance had negative consequences for both the agricultural and manufacturing sectors

regional tax coordination and foreign direct investment this paper analyses the effects of a regionally coordinated profit tax or location subsidy in a model with three active countries one of which is not part of the union and a globally mobile firm we show that regional coordination can lead to two types of welfare gain first for investments that would take place in the union in the absence of coordination a coordinated tax increase can transfer location rents from the firm to the union second by internalising all of the union s benefits from foreign direct investment a coordinated tax reduction can attract more welfare enhancing investment than when member states act in isolation depending on which motive dominates tax levels may thus rise or fall under regional coordination

bank competition and firm creation we investigate the effects of competition in the financial sector on the creation of firms in the nonfinancial sector explicitly allowing for heterogeneous effects across borrowers characterized by different degrees of asymmetric information we find evidence of a bell shaped relationship between bank competition and firm creation in addition consistently with theories arguing that competition may reduce the availability of credit to informationally opaque firms we find that bank competition results less favorable to the emergence of new firms in industrial sectors where informational asymmetries are more important

poolability and the finance growth nexus a cautionary note abstract the present contribution tests whether countries can be pooled when studying the finance growth nexus overall our results point toward a pragmatic positive answer though considerable heterogeneity is present among developing countries

business cycles and the relationship between concentration and price cost margins using a newly constructed panel data base we examine changes in price cost margins in 284 manufacturing industries between 1958 and 1981 a key finding is a dramatic narrowing of the spread between the margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries over this period we provide evidence that this narrowing is a result of the greater sensitivity of price cost margins in more concentrated industries to demand fluctuations this finding is robust to the inclusion of other industry variables and to measures of import competition the results indicate that cross sectional estimates of the concentration margins relationship are likely to be both biased and misleading

financial dependence and growth revisited we revisit an earlier highly influential paper on financial dependence and growth by rajan and zingales 1998 we re examine their assumptions and the robustness of their results to alternative theories and interpretations we first show that they may be implicitly testing whether financial intermediaries allow firms to better respond to global shocks to growth opportunities rather than the extent that financial intermediaries allow firms to grow in industries with an inherent technological financial dependence we propose a more direct measure of growth opportunities if u s capital markets are perfect then actual growth in the u s is a good proxy for global growth opportunities we test this directly by including u s industry growth in rajan and zingales s original specification and find that our direct growth measure outperforms their financial dependence measure and is less vulnerable to controlling for outliers and level of development this still suggests an important role for finance in the allocation of resources but shifts the emphasis from financial dependence to global growth opportunities jel f3 g1 o4

the role of social capital in financial development to identify the effect of social capital on financial development we exploit social capital differences within italy in high social capital areas households are more likely to use checks invest less in cash and more in stock have higher access to institutional credit and make less use of informal credit the effect of social capital is stronger where legal enforcement is weaker and among less educated people these results are not driven by omitted environmental variables since we show that the behavior of movers is still affected by the level of social capital of the province where they were born

law finance and firm growth we investigate how differences in legal and financial systems affect firms use of external financing to fund growth we show that in countries whose legal systems score high on an efficiency index a greater proportion of firms use long term external financing an active though not necessarily large stock market and a large banking sector are also associated with externally financed firm growth the increased reliance on external financing occurs in part because established firms in countries with well functioning institutions have lower profit rates government subsidies to industry do not increase the proportion of firms relying on external financing the corporate finance literature suggests that market imperfections caused by conflicts of interest and informational asymmetries between corporate insiders and investors constrain firms in their ability to fund investment projects the magnitude of these imperfections depends in part on the effectiveness of the legal and financial systems because these systems differ across countries the literature implies that there should exist systematic cross country differences in firms ability to obtain external capital to finance investment in this paper we examine whether the underdevelopment of legal and financial systems does prevent firms in some countries from investing in potentially profitable growth opportunities in particular we focus on the use of long term debt or external equity to fund growth see our earlier work demirgut kunt and maksimovic 1996a which compares firms financial structures in developed and developing countries and finds the greatest difference to be in the provision of long term credit we estimate a financial planning model to obtain the maximum growth rate that each firm in our thirty country sample could attain without access to long term financing we then compare these predicted growth rates to growth rates realized by firms in countries with differing degrees of development in their legal and financial systems our approach enables us to identify specific characteristics of the legal and financial systems that are associated with long term financing of firm growth thus we provide a micro level test of the hypoth

rise of latecomers and catch up cycles in the world steel industry abstract this study analyzes the sources of changes in industrial leadership and catch up by latecomers in the world steel industry since world war ii the shift of leadership from the united states to japan in 1980 and the subsequent rise of korea with posco s output surpassing that of nippon steel in 1998 is explained on the basis of a single theoretical framework we rely on the neo schumpeterian concepts of sectoral innovation systems and windows of opportunity for latecomers in catching up with leading countries these windows include changing generations of technologies business cycles and demand shifts and government regulations and other interventions japan realized a path creating catch up by taking advantage of the opportunity window associated with the emergence of new technologies entering as a state owned enterprise posco engaged in stage skipping catch up by utilizing the downturn as a window of opportunity to pay low prices for expanding its facilities and updating its technologies

how important are banks for development national banks in the united states 1870 1900 abstract do banks matter for growth and if so how this paper examines the effects of national banks in the united states from 1870 to 1900 i use the discontinuity in entry caused by a large minimum size requirement to identify the effects of banking for the counties on the margin between getting a bank and not gaining a bank increased production per person by 10 national banks in rural areas improved agriculture over manufacturing moving counties toward geographic comparative advantage since these banks made few long term loans the evidence suggests that the provision of working capital and liquidity matters for growth

international tax coordination regionalism versus globalism tax competition for mobile capital can undermine the attempts of governments to redistribute income from rich to poor i study whether international tax coordination can alleviate this problem using a general equilibrium model synthesizing recent contributions to the tax competition literature the model highlights the crucial distinction between global tax coordination and regional coordination with high capital mobility between the tax union and the rest of the world the welfare gain from regional capital income tax coordination is only a small fraction of the gain from global coordination even if the tax union is large relative to the world economy

informed lending and security design we examine the role of security design when lenders make inefficient accept or reject decisions after screening projects lenders may be either too conservative in which case they reject positive npv projects or too aggressive in which case they accept negative npv projects in the first case the uniquely optimal security is debt in the second case it is levered equity in equilibrium profitable projects that are relatively likely to break even are financed with debt while less profitable projects are financed with equity highly profitable projects are financed by uninformed arm slength lenders professional lenders have specialized expertise in screening projects unlike the typical entrepreneur to whom they lend they have been exposed to a wide variety of projects in the past professional lenders have experienced loan officers and analysts who know precisely what information is relevant how to treat soft information such as management quality and how to weigh the various pieces of information in making a forecast of the project s cash flows and default risk this paper examines how securities should be optimally designed when lenders make inefficient accept or reject decisions after screening projects in our model screening generates an informative albeit private signal about the project s profitability high signals indicate a positive net present value npv and low signals indicate a negative npv where the project s npv is increasing

capital structure decisions during a firm s life cycle the study reported here examines the financing choices of small and medium sized firms i e those most vulnerable to information and incentive problems through the lens of the business life cycle we argue that the controversy in the empirical literature regarding the determinants of capital structure decisions is based on a failure to take into account the different degrees of information opacity and consequently firms characteristics and needs at specific stages of their life cycles the results show that in a bank oriented country firms tend to adopt specific financing strategies and a different hierarchy of financial decision making as they progress through the phases of their business life cycle contrary to conventional wisdom debt is shown to be fundamental to business activities in the early stages representing the first choice by contrast in the maturity stage firms re balance their capital structure gradually substituting debt for internal capital and for firms that have consolidated their business the pecking order theory shows a high degree of application this financial life cycle pattern seems to be homogeneous for different industries and consistent over time

public policies and the art of catching up matching the historical evidence with a multicountry agent based model in this paper we study the effects of industrial policies on international convergence using a multi country agent based model which builds upon dosi et al 2019b the model features a group of microfounded economies with evolving industries populated by heterogeneous firms that compete in international markets in each country technological change is driven by firms activities of search and innovation while aggregate demand formation and distribution follows keynesian dynamics interactions among countries take place via trade flows and international technological imitation we employ the model to assess the different strategies that laggard countries can adopt to catch up with leaders market friendly policies industrial policies targeting the development of firms capabilities and rd protectionist policies focusing on tariffs only we find that markets cannot do the magic in absence of government interventions laggards will continue to fall behind on the contrary industrial policies can successfully drive international convergence among leaders and laggards while protectionism alone is not necessary to support catching up and countries get stuck in a sort of middle income trap finally in a global trade war where developed economies impose retaliatory tariffs both laggards and leaders are worse off and world productivity growth slows down

the case for international tax co ordination reconsidered tax co ordination its desirability and redistributional implication in a world of high capital mobility governments may be tempted to undercut each other s capital income taxes to attract capital from abroad since such tax competition may have detrimental effects for all countries european policy makers have debated the introduction of a minimum capital income tax rate within the eu this paper develops an applied general equilibrium model to estimate the effects of such tax co ordination on resource allocation income distribution and social welfare the model allows for the concern of policy makers that a rise in capital taxes within the eu may cause a capital flight out of europe capital flight will indeed reduce the welfare gain from tax co ordination within western europe but a positive net gain will remain although it is likely to be well below 1 of gdp the gain from co ordination will be unevenly distributed across european countries due to differences in economic structures and in the social preference for redistribution moreover even if the median voter s gain from tax co ordination may be small the gains for the poorer sections of society may be quite large peter birch sorensen

is financial inclusion good for bank stability international evidence abstract financial inclusion has become an important public policy priority following the recent global financial crisis yet we know very little of how it impacts soundness of the providers of financial services using an international sample of 2635 banks in 86 countries over the period 2004 12 we find that higher level of financial inclusion contributes to greater bank stability the positive association is particularly pronounced with those banks that have higher customer deposit funding share and lower marginal costs of providing banking services and also with those that operate in countries with stronger institutional quality the results are robust to instrumental variables analysis controlling for bank fixed effects alternative measures of financial inclusion among several other robustness tests our results highlight that the importance of ensuring inclusive financial system is not only a development goal but also an issue that should be prioritised by banks as such a policy drive is good for their stability

red tape and delayed entry does cutting red tape foster entrepreneurship in industries with the potential to expand we address this question by combining the time needed to comply with government entry procedures in 45 countries with industry level data on employment growth and growth in the number of establishments during the 1980s our main empirical finding is that countries where it takes less time to register new businesses have seen more entry in industries that experienced expansionary global demand and technology shifts our estimates take into account that proxying global industry shifts using data from only one country or group of countries with similar entry regulations will in general yield biased results

is partial tax harmonization desirable we consider a setting in which capital taxation is characterized by two distortions working in opposite directions on one hand governments engage in tax competition and are tempted to lower capital tax rates on the other hand they are unable to commit to future policies and once capital has been installed have incentives to increase taxes in this setting there exists a tax that optimally trades off the two distortions we compare three possible tax harmonization scenarios no tax harmonization all countries set taxes unilaterally global tax harmonization all countries coordinate their capital taxes and partial tax harmonization only a subset of all countries coordinate capital taxes we show that if capital is sufficiently mobile partial tax harmonization benefits all countries compared to both global and no harmonization

mafia and public spending evidence on the fiscal multiplier from a quasi experiment a law issued to combat political corruption and mafia infiltration of city councils in italy has resulted in episodes of large unanticipated temporary contractions in local public spending using these episodes as instruments we estimate the output multiplier of spending cuts at provincial level controlling for national monetary and fiscal policy and holding the tax burden of local residents constant to be 1 5 assuming that lagged spending is exogenous to current output brings the estimate of the overall multiplier up to 1 9 these results suggest that local spending adjustment may be quite consequential for local activity jel d72 e62 h71 k42 the widespread resort to fiscal stimulus at the onset of the global crisis and more recently the emerging need to consolidate deficits in response to rising fiscal imbalances have revitalized the empirical debate on the transmission of fiscal policy the multiplier while the literature has mostly focused on aggregate effects at a national level several recent contributions reviewed below have called attention to the local dimension this shift in focus is motivated by specific policy questions combined with the opportunity to exploit institutional information to address econometric issues in identification 1

long lasting bank relationships and growth of firms a puzzling but consistent result in the empirical literature on banking is that firms with close bank ties do not grow faster than bank independent firms in this paper we reconsider the link between relationship lending and firm growth distinguishing firms by size and expansion contraction conditions the idea is that the beneficial effects of relationship lending on information asymmetries can be compensated by other negative capture risk and externality effects which make relational banks reluctant to support long term growth projects of client firms and that the strength of these compensating effects varies with firm size and health status we explore the influence of long lasting bank relationships on employment and asset growth of a large sample of italian firms the main finding is that relationship lending hampers the efforts of small firms to increase their size while it mitigates the negative growth of troubled medium large enterprises

sectoral systems of innovation and production the concept sectoral system of innovation and production provides a multidimensional integrated and dynamic view of sectors it is proposed that a sectoral system is a set of products and the set of agents carrying out market and non market interactions for the creation production and sale of those products a sectoral systems has a specific knowledge base technologies inputs and demand agents are individuals and organizations at various levels of aggregation they interact through processes of communication exchange co operation competition and command and these interactions are shaped by institutions a sectoral system undergoes change and transformation through the co evolution of its various elements 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

bank privatization finance and growth abstract this paper examines whether privatizing state owned banks improves finance and economic growth to do so we exploit regional banking variations in russia induced by the idiosyncratic creation of specialized banks in the last years of the soviet union 1988 91 that were subsequently privatized starting in 1999 private banks including surviving spetsbanks emerged as an important source of external finance for private firms and households we document that the regional concentration of spetsbanks in the early years of the russian federation is orthogonal to economic fundamentals that are related to growth after the emergence of bank finance results indicate that while privatized banking increased lending significantly it did not increase economic growth however privatization did increase growth when banks retained fewer political connections and when regional property rights were better protected highlighting the importance of both factors

local financial development and firm performance evidence from morocco abstract combining data from the moroccan census of manufacturing enterprises with information from a commune survey we test whether firm expansion is affected by local financial development our findings are consistent with this hypothesis local bank availability is robustly associated with faster growth for small and medium size firms in sectors with growth opportunities with a lower likelihood of firm exit and a higher likelihood of investment regarding the channel the evidence suggests that over the study period access to credit was used by pre existing moroccan firms to mobilize investment funds with some evidence that they were partly used towards reducing labor costs

household inequality entrepreneurial dynamism and corporate financing economic theories provide conflicting hypotheses on how wealth inequality affects entrepreneurial dynamism to empirically investigate its impact we construct local measures of household wealth inequality based on financial rents home equity and 1880 farmland we identify its effects on entrepreneurship by instrumenting it with land distribution under the 1862 homestead act or us states removal of death taxes wealth inequality decreases firm entry and exit and the proportion of high tech businesses across metropolitan statistical areas there is also less redistribution into public goods supportive of entrepreneurship such as schooling and the judiciary income per capita consequently grows more slowly

do rural banks matter evidence from the indian social banking experiment lack of access to finance is often cited as a key reason why poor people remain poor this paper uses data on the indian rural branch expansion program to provide empirial evidence on this issue between 1977 and 1990 the indian central bank mandated that a commercial bank can open a branch in a location with one or more bank branches only if it opens four in locations with no bank branches we show that between 1977 and 1990 this rule caused banks to open relatively more rural branches in indian states with lower initial financial development the reverse is true outside this period we exploit this fact to identify the impact of opening a rural bank on poverty and output our estimates suggest that the indian rural branch expansion program significantly lowered rural poverty and increased non agricultural output

learning and catching up in different sectoral systems evidence from six industries this article claims that catching up is a learning process that requires a long time and often differs significantly across economic sectors in the factors leading to success or failure we support these claims by examining the major factors affecting catching up by several countries in six industries india and brazil for pharmaceuticals korea china and brazil for autos india ireland israel china brazil and other countries for software korea and india for telecommunication equipment korea taiwan china and malaysia for semiconductors and china brazil costa rica and nigeria for some agricultural crops the article uses the framework of sectoral systems and argues that there are significant differences across these sectors in the variables and mechanisms involved in catching up the article identifies the common factors affecting catching up and the main differences across sectoral systems it then discusses the interplay between national systems and sectoral systems copyright 2011 the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

globalisation of the world s wine markets the research on which the paper draws was funded by the grape and wine research and development corporation the rural industries research and development corporation and the australian research council

finance and the sources of growth the authors evaluate whether the level of development in the banking sector exerts a causal impact on economic growth and its sources total factor productivity growth physical capital accumulation and private saving they use 1 a pure cross country instrumental variable estimator to extract the exogenous component of banking development and 2 a new panel technique that controls for country specific effects and endogeneity they find that banks do exert a large causal impact on total factor productivity growth which feeds through to overall gdp gross domestic product growth the long run links between banking development and both capital growth and private savings are more tenuous

does local financial development matter we study the effects of differences in local financial development within an integrated financial market we construct a new indicator of financial development by estimating a regional effect on the probability that ceteris paribus a household is shut off from the credit market by using this indicator we find that financial development enhances the probability an individual starts his own business favors entry of new firms increases competition and promotes growth as predicted by theory these effects are weaker for larger firms which can more easily raise funds outside of the local area these effects are present even when we instrument our indicator with the structure of the local banking markets in 1936 which because of regulatory reasons affected the supply of credit in the following 50 years overall the results suggest local financial development is an important determinant of the economic success of an area even in an environment where there are no frictions to capital movements

financial development and economic growth views and agenda this critique argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth the body of work would push even most skeptics toward the belief that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sideshow responding passively to economic growth many gaps remain however and the paper highlights areas in acute need of additional research

investment cash flow sensitivities credit rationing and financing constraints in small and medium sized firms the controversy on whether investment cash flow sensitivity is a good indicator of financing constraints is still unsolved we apply a comprehensive approach by cross validating our analysis with both balance sheet and qualitative data on self declared credit rationing and financing constraints on a sample of mainly small and medium sized firms our qualitative information shows that self declared credit rationing is weakly related to both traditional a priori factors such as firm size age and location and lenders rational decisions taken on the basis of their credit risk models we use the qualitative information on firms which were denied additional credit to provide evidence relevant to the investment cash flow sensitivity debate the evidence shows that self declared credit rationing significantly discriminates between firms which possess or not such sensitivity while a priori criteria do not the same result does not apply when we consider the wider group of financially constrained firms which do not seem to have a higher investment cash flow sensitivity supporting the more recent empirical evidence in this direction

why do most countries set high tax rates on capital abstract we consider tax competition in a world with tax bases exhibiting different degrees of mobility modeled as mobile and immobile capital an agreement among countries not to give preferential treatment to mobile capital results in an equilibrium where mobile capital is nevertheless taxed relatively lightly in particular one or two of the smallest countries measured by their stocks of immobile capital choose relatively low tax rates thereby attracting mobile capital away from the other countries which are then left to set revenue maximizing taxes on their immobile capital this conclusion holds regardless of whether countries choose their tax policies sequentially or simultaneously in contrast unrestricted competition for mobile capital results in the preferential treatment of mobile capital by all countries without cross country differences in the taxation of mobile capital nevertheless our main result is that the non preferential regime generates larger expected global tax revenue despite the sizable revenue loss from the emergence of low tax countries by extending the analysis to include cross country differences in productivities we are able to resurrect a case for preferential regimes but only if the productivity differences are sufficiently large