measuring the spillovers from technical advance mainframe computers in financial services measuring the social gains from recent technological advances is difficult because there are no output indexes from some important adopters measurement methods that infer the willingness to pay of theadopting industries from the derived demand curve for a new technologyovercome this difficulty the derived demand for high speed computersfor use in banks finance and insurance is shown to imply a very largesocial gain to computerization that is not captured by computer manufacturers copyright 1986 by american economic association

selection investment and women s relative wages over time in theory growing wage inequality within gender should cause women to invest more in their market productivity and should differentially pull able women into the workforce our paper uses heckman s two step estimator and identification at infinity on repeated current population survey cross sections to calculate relative wage series for women since 1970 that hold constant the composition of skills we find that selection into the female full time full year workforce shifted from negative in the 1970s to positive in the 1990s and that the majority of the apparent narrowing of the gender wage gap reflects changes in female workforce composition we find the same types of composition changes by measuring husbands wages and national longitudinal survey iq data as proxies for unobserved skills our findings help to explain why growing wage equality between genders coincided with growing inequality within gender

manufacturing gender inequality in the new economy high school training for work in blue collar communities tensions between the demands of the knowledge based economy and remaining blue collar jobs underlie renewed debates about whether schools should emphasize career and technical training or college preparatory curricula we add a gendered lens to this issue given the male dominated nature of blue collar jobs and women s greater returns to college using the els 2002 this study exploits spatial variation in school curricula and jobs to investigate local dynamics that shape gender stratification results suggest a link between high school training and jobs in blue collar communities that structures patterns of gender inequality into early adulthood although high school training in blue collar communities reduced both men s and women s odds of four year college enrollment it had gender divergent labor market consequences men in blue collar communities took more blue collar courses had higher rates of blue collar employment and earned similar wages relative to otherwise comparable men from non blue coll

dynamic inefficiency endogenous growth and ponzi games we show that in competitive endogenous growth models without externalities balanced growth equilibria are dynamically efficient with learning by doing externalities dynamic inefficiency may exist but due to the mix of capital rather than its scale these results are obtained independent of whether or not lifetimes are finite or generations overlap in olg models with externalities we show that ponzi games may be feasible even though equilibria are characterized by undersaving

optimism pessimism and financial bubbles this paper shows that it is possible to extend the scope of the existence of rational bubbles when uncertainty is introduced associated with rank dependent expected utility this rdu assumption can be viewed as a transformation of probabilities depending on the pessimism optimism of the agent the results show that pessimism favors the existence of deterministic bubbles when optimism may promote the existence of stochastic bubbles moreover under pessimism the rdu assumption may generate multiple bubbly equilibria the rdu assumption also leads to new conditions ensuring the absence of pareto optimality of the competitive equilibrium without bubbles these conditions still govern the existence of bubbles

china and global macroeconomic interdependence china is transitioning towards more inward focussed growth causing adverse changes in the product and financial terms of trade in the advanced economies at the same time international financial markets tussle between tightening forces associated with the us recovery on the one hand and unconventional monetary expansion in europe and japan on the other the way these shocks interact is examined in this paper using a global macromodel with national portfolio rebalancing and asset differentiation and a representation of unconventional monetary policy results are found to be sensitive to the contributions of productivity and capital accumulation to china s growth when these are offered in realistic combination the effects are deflationary in the united states and china militating against contractionary us monetary policy monetary responses in the united states and china then combine with price targeting regimes in the eu and japan to expand liquidity globally amplifying impacts on financial markets and the global distribution of real investment

switching bubbles from outside to inside bubbles abstract the united states has recently experienced two asset price bubbles the dot com and the housing bubbles these bubbles had very different effects on investment and debt of manufacturing firms in this paper i develop a framework to understand the differential effect of two types of rational bubbles i distinguish between i outside bubbles which i define as savers purchasing and selling costless assets not attached to inputs of production and ii inside bubbles which i define as savers buying an input of production e g land or houses only as a store of value the model is an olg economy with savers and entrepreneurs savers save to consume when they are old entrepreneurs can borrow to invest but they face a collateral constraint in this environment rational bubbles can emerge i show that the size of an inside bubble is larger i also find that when the economy switches from an outside to an inside bubble manufacturing or non housing investment and debt is lower consistent with the u s experience finally i show that even though steady state consumption is higher with an outside bubble a social planner would prefer an inside bubble when the productivity of entrepreneurs is low

the lechatelier principle the lechatelier principle in the form introduced into economics by paul a samuelson asserts that at a point of long run equilibrium the derivative of long run compensated demand with respect to own price is larger in magnitude than the derivative of short run compensated demand the authors introduce an extended lechatelier principle that applies also to large price changes and to uncompensated demand as well as to a wide range of concave and nonconcave maximization problems outside the scope of demand theory this extension also clarifies the intuitive basis of the principle copyright 1996 by american economic association

a mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices the paper studies the dynamics of housing prices in a pure exchange overlapping generations framework a la samuelson 1958 and gale 1973 which is extended to include housing as a utility yielding durable good and a credit sector we completely characterize the equilibrium dynamics which alternates between an expansive regime where leveraged borrowing increases housing prices and a contractive regime where these variables decrease regime switches occur due to small but persistent income changes giving rise to boom bust cycles in housing prices price deviations from fundamentals are caused by leveraged borrowing and turn out to be fully welfare neutral

speculative growth hints from the u s economy we propose a framework for understanding episodes of vigorous economic expansion and extreme asset valuations we interpret this phenomenon as a high valuation equilibrium with a low cost of capital based on optimism about future funding the key ingredient for such equilibrium is feedback from increased growth to a decline in the long run cost of capital this feedback arises when an expansion comes with technological progress in the capital sector when fiscal rules generate procyclical fiscal surpluses when the rest of the world has lower expansion potential or high saving needs and when financial constraints are relaxed by the expansion itself

demographic change and policy responses implications for the global economy the fertility declines associated with the final phase of the global demographic transition have led to slower population growth and accelerated ageing in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries a global demographic and economic model is used to assess the implications of these changes for population sizes age gender distributions labour force growth and their implications for economic performance a baseline projection that incorporates declining fertility is compared with a hypothetical constant population growth scenario the results show that slower population growth and ageing reduces average saving rates in industrial regions yet global investment demand is also slowed and saving rates rise in developing regions so there is no net tightening of financial markets increased aged labour force participation considered one solution to the resulting rise in aged dependency in advanced regions is found to redistribute investment in favour of the industrialised regions and hence to accelerate their per capita income growth while conferring on the other regions compensatory terms of trade improvements the alternative of replacement migration is found to require inconceivably large population movements it also impairs real per capita growth in destination regions but by least in western europe where the terms of trade are improved by the immigration

the career costs of children this paper analyzes the life cycle career costs associated with child rearing and decomposes their eects into unearned wages as women drop out of the labor market loss of human capital and selection into more child friendly occupations we estimate a dynamic life cycle model of fertility occupational choice and labor supply using detailed survey and administrative data for germany for numerous birth cohorts across dierent regions we use this model to analyze both the male female wage gap as it evolves from labor market entry onward and the eect of pro fertility policies we show that a substantial portion of the gender wage gap is explainable by realized and expected fertility and that the long run eect of policies encouraging fertility are considerably lower than the short run eects typically estimated in the literature

the information technology revolution and the stock market technological progress comes in waves the british industrial revolution 1760 1850 ushered in cort s puddling and rolling process for making iron crompton s mule for spinning cotton and the watt steam engine the second industrial revolution 1890 1930 witnessed the rise of electricity the internal combustion engine and the chemical industry the birth of information technology it may herald the start of a third industrial revolution a new technology or product is often developed by the single entrepreneur who initially finds it hard to get funds develop the product and find customers but if the product is good customers eventually line up and investors flock in other firms then move in to make the product and may drive the innovator out or acquire him whether he reaches the initial public offering ipo stage or is acquired by a listed firm though it takes time for the innovator to add value to the stock market indeed the innovation may at first reduce the market s value because some firms usually large or old will cling to old technologies that have lost their momentum figure 1 plots the market value of u s equity relative to gdp this paper argues that a the market declined in the late 1960 s because it felt that the old technologies either had lost their momentum or would give way to it and that b it innovators boosted the stock market s value only in the 1980 s if the stock market provides a forecast of future events then the recent dramatic upswing represents a rosy estimate about growth in future profits for the economy this translates into a forecast of higher output and productivity growth holding other things equal such as capital s share

fertility and savings contractions in china long run global implications following three decades of rapid but unbalanced economic growth china s reform agendas are set to rebalance the economy towards consumption while maintaining strong gdp growth headwinds include a demographic contraction that will bring negative labour force growth and rapid ageing rising aged dependency combined with lower saving rates will rebalance the economy but they will reduce both gdp growth and real per capita income while an effective two child policy could sustain growth and eventually mitigate the aged dependency problem it would set real per capita income on a still lower path these conundrums are examined using a global economic and demographic model which shows how the continuing demographic and saving contractions in china would alter the trajectories of both the chinese and global economies

appreciating the renminbi international pressure to revalue china s currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with an underlying real exchange rate appreciation this hinges on the balassa samuelson hypothesis which sees growth as stemming from improvements in traded sector productivity and associated rises in wages and non traded prices yet despite extraordinary growth after the mid 1990s china s real exchange rate showed no tendency to appreciate until after 2004 we use a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the economy and show that during this period trade reforms and a rising national saving rate were offsetting forces in the presence of elastic labour supply we then examine the possible determinants of the striking transition to real appreciation thereafter noting mounting evidence that an improved rural term of trade has tightened china s labour market we show that should the chinese government bow to international pressure by appreciating the renminbi either via an extraordinary monetary contraction or via export disincentives the consequences would be harmful for both chinese and global interests

what drives the reversal of the gender education gap evidence from germany we study the mechanisms that are associated with the gender education gap and its reversal in germany we focus on three outcomes graduation from upper secondary school any tertiary education and tertiary degree neither individual and family background nor labour market characteristics appear to be strongly associated with the gender education gap there is some evidence that the gender gap in upper secondary education reflects the rising share of single parent households which impacts boys attainment more than girls the gender education gap in tertiary education is correlated with the development of class sizes and social norms

unequal pay or unequal employment a cross country analysis of gender gaps we analyze gender wage gaps correcting for sample selection induced by nonemployment we recover wages for the nonemployed using alternative imputation techniques simply requiring assumptions on the position of imputed wages with respect to the median we obtain higher median wage gaps on imputed rather than actual wage distributions for several oecd countries however this difference is small in the united states the united kingdom and most central and northern eu countries and becomes sizable in southern eu countries where gender employment gaps are high selection correction explains nearly half of the observed negative correlation between wage and employment gaps

bubbles and capital flow volatility causes and risk management emerging market economies are fertile ground for the development of real estate and other financial bubbles despite these economies significant growth potential their corporate and government sectors do not generate the financial instruments to provide residents with adequate stores of value capital often flows out of these economies seeking these stores of value in the developed world bubbles are beneficial because they provide domestic stores of value and thereby reduce capital outflows while increasing investment but they come at a cost as they expose the country to bubble crashes and capital flow reversals we show that domestic financial underdevelopment not only facilitates the emergence of bubbles but also leads agents to undervalue the aggregate risk embodied in financial bubbles in this context even rational bubbles can be welfare reducing we study a set of aggregate risk management policies to alleviate the bubble risk we show that prudential banking regulation sterilization of capital inflows and structural policies aimed at developing public debt markets and property rights all have a high payoff in this environment

reform without losers an interpretation of china s dual track approach to transition this paper develops a simple model to analyze the dual track approach to market liberalization as a mechanism for implementing efficient pareto improving economic reform that is reform achieving efficiency without creating losers the approach based on the continued enforcement of the existing plan while simultaneously liberalizing the market can be understood as a method for making implicit lump sum transfers to compensate potential losers of the reform the model highlights the critical roles of enforcement of the plan for achieving pareto improvement and full liberalization of the market track for achieving efficiency we examine how the dual track approach has worked in product and labor market liberalization in china

the polarization of the u s labor market this paper analyzes a marked change in the evolution of the u s wage structure over the past fifteen years divergent trends in upper tail 90 50 and lower tail 50 10 wage inequality we document that wage inequality in the top half of distribution has displayed an unchecked and rather smooth secular rise for the last 25 years since 1980 wage inequality in the bottom half of the distribution also grew rapidly from 1979 to 1987 but it has ceased growing and for some measures actually narrowed since the late 1980s furthermore we find that occupational employment growth shifted from monotonically increasing in wages education in the 1980s to a pattern of more rapid growth in jobs at the top and bottom relative to the middles of the wage education distribution in the 1990s we characterize these patterns as the u201cpolarization u201d of the u s labor market with employment polarizing into high wage and low wage jobs at the expense of middle wage work we show how a model of computerization in which computers most strongly complement the non routine abstract cognitive tasks of high wage jobs directly substitute for the routine tasks found in many traditional middle wage jobs and may have little direct impact on non routine manual tasks in relatively low wage jobs can help explain the observed polarization of the u s labor market this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

occupations at risk job tasks job security and wages germany similar to other developed countries witnessed a sharp decline in jobs that used to constitute the middle class in the 1970s and 1980s this decline has been associated with the level to which jobs are codifiable there is evidence that codifiable tasks are more prone to technological substitution and outsourcing compared with tacit tasks this article empirically investigates two crucial aspects of the decline in codified jobs first it studies what happened to workers in codified occupations in terms of unemployment occupational change and wages second it revisits the hypothesis that code based technologies are the major driver of this labor market shift we find that job codification is associated with both higher unemployment and higher occupational change it is also associated with wage losses for workers who left routinized jobs we find however little evidence that code based technologies were the driving factor behind these dynamics

lowering standards to wed spouse quality marriage and labor market responses to the gender wage gap this paper examines the effect of the female to male wage ratio relative wage on women s spouse quality marriage and labor supply over three decades exploiting task based demand shifts as a

globalization and financial development a model of the dot com and the housing bubbles abstract in the last decade the united states experienced the burst of the dot com and the housing bubbles i develop a model to study the relationship between globalization and the emergence of rational bubbles i also analyze how the effect of globalization on house prices depends on the type of bubble i show that bubbles cannot arise in a financially developed country in autarky in contrast as globalization progresses bubbles are more likely to appear in the financially developed country i also show that house prices increase with globalization only when the bubble is attached to houses this prediction is consistent with empirical evidence for u s metropolitan areas

wage shocks and the technological substitution of low wage jobs we extend the task based empirical framework used in the job polarization literature to analyze the susceptibility of low wage employment to technological substitution we nd that increases in the cost of low wage labor via minimum wage hikes lead to relative employment declines at cognitively routine occupations but not manuallyroutine or non routine low wage occupations this suggests that low wage routine cognitive tasks are susceptible to technological substitution while the short run em

the effect of intensive margin changes to task content on employment dynamics over the business cycle previous empirical studies investigating the employment impact of technological change have relied on cross sectional measures of occupational tasks here the author links microdata on individual

economic growth with bubbles this paper presents a stylized model of economic growth with bubbles this model views asset price bubbles as a market generated device to moderate the effects of frictions in financial markets improving the allocation of investments and raising the capital stock and welfare the model illustrates various channels through which asset price bubbles affect the incentives for innovation and economic reforms and therefore the rate of economic growth the model also offers a new perspective on the effects of financial development on asset price bubbles and economic growth

the impact of segregation and sorting on the gender wage gap evidence from german linked longitudinal employer employee data for this study the author inspects the relationship between segregation in the workplace measured as the proportion female in job cells and the gender wage gap using linked longitudinal employer employee data from the german employment register he extends the literature by controlling for nonrandom sorting of workers into job cells establishments and occupations in line with previous studies the pooled least squares estimates show that the gender wage gap increases as the job cell level proportion of females increases this increase is attributable to the fact that women experience greater wage declines than men do when additional women enter their job cells controlling additionally for unobserved heterogeneity at the individual establishment occupation and job cell levels considerably reduces the size of the proportion female effects on women s wages while rendering the effects on men s wages insignificant or even positive the same controls also significantly decrease the proportion effects on the wage gap the related sorting analysis shows that a good deal of the proportion effects can be explained by unobserved individual ability and suggests that especially women working in job cells with small proportions of females show above average unobserved individual ability

house prices collateral and self employment this paper explores the role of the collateral lending channel to facilitate small business starts and self employment in the period before the financial crisis of 2008 we document that between 2002 and 2007 areas with a bigger run up in house prices experienced a strong increase in employment in small businesses compared to employment in large firms in the same industries this increase in small business employment was particularly pronounced in industries that need little startup capital and can thus more easily be financed out of increases in housing as collateral our results highlight the importance of the collateral lending channel during the period of the house price boom in the creation of small establishments we show that this effect is separate from the aggregate demand channel that relies on home equity based borrowing leading to increased demand and employment creation

asset bubbles and the cost of economic fluctuations lucas 1987 2003 estimates that the cost of economic fluctuations is low a social planner would pay no more than 0 1 of permanent consumption to eliminate all future business cycle fluctuations the current paper extends lucas calculations by studying the costs of fluctuations arising from asset bubbles we estimate two classes of costs consumption volatility due to asset bubbles in a representative agent economy and consumption volatility that arises because households have heterogeneous exposure to the bubble assets we show that the magnitude of welfare costs is primarily driven by the existence of heterogeneity our benchmark calibration implies that the asset bubbles of the last decade generated a social welfare cost equal to a permanent 3 reduction in the level of national consumption if assets are held proportionately across the population these welfare costs fall by an order of magnitude our calculations are sensitive to the details of the calibration including the degree of balance sheet and trading heterogeneity the coefficient of relative risk aversion and the magnitude of the asset bubble our preferred specifications generate welfare costs ranging from 1 to 10 of permanent national consumption

gender segregation in occupations the role of tipping and social interactions this paper documents that the dynamics of occupational segregation are highly nonlinear and exhibit tipping patterns occupations experience discontinuous declines in net male employment growth at tipping points ranging from 25 to 45 from 13 to 30 female in white collar blue collar occupations from 1940 to 1990 these patterns appear consistent with a schelling 1971 social interaction model where tipping results from male preferences toward the fraction female in their occupation supporting the model s predictions evidence from the general social survey indicates that tipping points are lower in regions where males hold more sexist attitudes toward the appropriate role of women

customer and supplier driven externalities the purpose of this paper is to provide empirical evidence helpful for distinguishing different types of externalities we pursue this by extending the productionfunction framework of robert e hall 1990 and caballero and lyons 1990 1992 to exploit two key dimensions of the data disaggregate input output relationships and differences between estimates emphasizing time series versus cross sectional aspects of the data we obtain three main results first from the within estimates using annual data which emphasize the time series properties common across sectors we find a strong reduced form relationship between industry productivity and the activity level input growth of customers in sharp contrast supplier activity levels are insignificant the second result derives from between estimates which emphasize the cross sectional dimension of the data here we find the opposite is true there is a strong reduced form relationship between industry productivity and the activity level of suppliers but no relationship with customer activity levels we interpret the first two results as suggesting that over shorter horizons the linkage between an industry and its customers is pivotal in the transmission of external effects while in the long run external effects are mostly related to intermediate goods linkages the third result concerns the transition from short to long run we find that as the number of periods over which the variables are averaged is incrementally increased from one year toward the full sample period 27 years the significance of customers versus suppliers smoothly reverses itself the remainder of the paper is organized in four sections section i presents the core model and the econometric methods for disentangling the external effects section ii describes the data and estimation section iii presents the main results and our conclusions are presented in section iv

asset bubbles and credit constraints we provide a theory of rational stock price bubbles in production economies with infinitely lived agents firms meet stochastic investment opportunities and face endogenous credit constraints they are not fully committed to repaying debt credit constraints are derived from incentive constraints in optimal contracts which ensure default never occurs in equilibrium stock price bubbles can emerge through a positive feedback loop mechanism and cannot be ruled out by transversality conditions these bubbles command a liquidity premium and raise investment by raising the debt limit their collapse leads to a recession and a stock market crash

rational asset pricing bubbles this paper provides a fairly systematic study of general economic conditions under which rational asset pricing bubbles may arise in an intertemporal competitive equilibrium framework our main results are concerned with nonexistence of asset pricing bubbles in those economies these results imply that the conditions under which bubbles are possible including some well known examples of monetary equilibria are relatively fragile this paper is concerned with the conditions under which asset prices in an intertemporal competitive equilibrium are equal to the present value of the streams of future dividends to which each asset represents a claim according to a central result of the theory of finance this is very generally true in the case of economies with trading at only a finite sequence of dates as long as there are no restrictions upon transactions other than that associated with possible incom pleteness of the set of securities that are traded the result is sometimes called the fundamental theorem of asset pricing here we consider the extent to which such a result continues to be valid in the case of trading over an infinite horizon it has often been observed in the econometric literature on asset pricing bubbles that it is possible in principle for the price of a perpetuity and the dividends on that security to satisfy at all times a present value relation for one period holding returns while the security s price nonetheless does not equal the present value of the stream of dividends expected over the infinite future in such a case the price of the perpetuity is said to involve a bubble component 2 joint stochastic processes for which this component is nonzero are sometimes argued to characterize existing assets for a recent example see froot and obstfeld 1991 but such an inference depends upon aspects of the stochastic

early gender gaps among university graduates abstract we use data from six cohorts of university graduates in germany to assess the extent of gender gaps in college and labor market performance twelve to eighteen months after graduation men and women enter college in roughly equal numbers but more women than men complete their degrees women enter college with slightly better high school grades but women leave university with slightly lower marks immediately following university completion male and female full timers work a very similar number of hours per week but men earn more than women across the pay distribution with an unadjusted gender gap in full time monthly earnings of about 20 log points on average including a large set of controls reduces the gap to 5 10 log points the single most important proximate factor that explains the gap is field of study at university

structural change in developing countries has it decreased gender inequality summary this paper examines the evolution of female labor market outcomes from 1987 to 2008 by assessing the role of changing labor demand requirements in four developing countries brazil mexico india and thailand the results highlight the importance of structural change in reducing gender disparities by decreasing the labor demand for physical attributes the results show that india the country with the greatest physical labor requirements exhibits the largest labor market gender inequality in contrast brazil s labor requirements have followed a similar trend seen in the united states reducing gender inequality in both wages and labor force participation

the information technology revolution and the stock market evidence since 1968 the ratio of stock market capitalization to gdp has varied by a factor of 5 in 1972 the ratio stood at above unity but by 1974 it had fallen to 0 45 where it stayed for the next decade it then began a steady climb and today it stands above 2 we argue that the it revolution was behind this and moreover that the capitalization gdp ratio is likely to decline and then rise after any major technological shift the three assumptions that deliver the result are

intangible capital relative asset shortages and bubbles abstract purely technological factors can be a fundamental force behind the emergence of asset price bubbles in developed economies we analyze an economy in which the production technology utilizes both physical and intangible capital where the latter cannot be used as collateral for borrowing technological change in the form of increased importance of intangible capital in production sharpens the borrowing constraints of entrepreneurs leading to a scarcity of high yield assets relative to low yield ones this can create the conditions for asset bubbles additionally due to the financial frictions standard dynamic efficiency tests are not valid and bubbles are not pareto improving

on the interplay between speculative bubbles and productive investment the aim of this paper is to study the interplay between long term productive investments and more short term and liquid speculative ones a three period lived overlapping generations model allows us to make this distinction agents have a portfolio decision when young they can invest in human capital that is a productive long term investment that provides a return during the following two periods when young or in the middle age they can invest in a bubble young individuals can also borrow on a credit market to finance the productive investment however the amount borrowed is limited by a credit constraint we show that the existence of a stationary bubble raises productive investment and production when the bubleless economy is credit constrained and dynamically efficient indeed young agents sell short the bubble to increase productive investments whereas traders at middle age transfer wealth to old age the bubble allows to relax the credit constraint we outline that a permanent technological shock inducing either a larger return of capital in the short term or a similar increase in the return of capital in both periods raises productive capital production and the bubble size we use our framework to discuss the effect on the occurrence of bubbles of financial regulation and fiscal policy

gender wage gap and the role of skills and tasks evidence from the austrian piaac data set we analyze the gender differences in skills tasks and skill matching of workers and the impact of these factors on the gender wage gap using the survey of adult skills a product of the oecd pro

the rise of female professionals are women responding to skill demand for years college educated women were limited mainly to lower paying female dominated professions such as teaching and nursing over the past several decades however there has been a remarkable increase in the percentage of college educated women in higher paying traditionally male professional occupations in 1967 the fraction of college educated women working in these occupations was less than 20 percent by 1997 this number had increased to almost 40 percent this increase is particularly striking when compared to the slightly declining trend among college educated men what can explain this increase in female professionals there are a number of possible explanations one explanation is a demand shift favoring women over men in these highly skilled occupations while the notion of a gender specific demand shift is compelling in the case of high school graduate men and women who work in very different industries and occupations the story is much less convincing for the college educated group collegeeducated men and women work in more similar occupations and are presumably closer substitutes for each other to the extent that they are different the available evidence suggests that this may have worked to the disadvantage of women see francine blau and lawrence kahn 1997 another explanation and the one we focus on in this paper is that college educated women have responded to the rise in overall skill demand a phenomenon which has characterized the u s labor market during the 1980 s and perhaps even as early as the 1970 s an important margin of response for these women may have been labor market participation in 1970 less than 60 percent of college educated women were working the economy wide rise in skill demand may have attracted educated women not only from other occupations but from nonparticipation as well since virtually all college educated men work labor market participation is less likely to be a factor for men while we postulate that the overall increase in skill demand played an important role we are also aware that this is not the only explanation within these high wage professional occupations women s wages rose relative to male wages even as women increased their share this suggests to us that declining discrimination which both made it easier for women to enter these occupations and resulted in wage convergence vis a vis the male workers or unobserved skill upgrading also may have played a role in addition the spread of more effective birthcontrol devices roe v wade and no fault divorce laws just to name a few of the factors which changed marriage and fertility patterns of women also most likely contributed to women s willingness and ability to invest in career jobs see claudia goldin and lawrence katz 2000

two sides of the same coin u s residual inequality and the gender gap abstract we show that the narrowing gender gap and the growth in earnings inequality are consistent with a simple model in which skills are heterogeneous and the growth in skill prices has been particularly strong for skills with which women are well endowed empirical analysis of dot cps and nlsy79 data finds evidence to support this model a large increase in the prices of cognitive and people skills skills with which women are well endowed and a decline in the price of motor skills account for up to 40 percent of the rising inequality and 20 percent of the narrowing gender gap

robots computers and the gender wage gap abstract we analyze the effects of two automation technologies industrial robots and computing equipment on the gender wage gap in us local labor markets between 1990 and 2015 we find distinct impact of robot and computer capital an increase in robots decreases male wage more than female wage whereas an increase in computers reduces female wage more than male wage according to our estimates one additional unit of robot per thousand workers reduces gender wage gap by 0 3 log points and by contrast an increase in computer capital by one million dollars per thousand workers increases gender wage gap by 4 1 log points

monetary policy and the global housing bubble what caused the housing boom of the 2000s a number of researchers have suggested that loose monetary policy during the first half of the 2000s was a primary cause of the substantial run up in house prices in many countries however using a common statistical approach we find that monetary policy was not the main factor that should not be surprising although low interest rates raise house prices the increase in prices during the mid 2000s was much larger than the historical relationship between the two variables would suggest instead we investigate further the link between the marked loosening in terms and standards for mortgage credit and the most rapid increases in house prices this link provides some evidence for a story where credit provision and the demand for housing fed on each other and helped spur the housing boom our work suggests a greater role for macroprudential regulation rather than monetary policy in managing asset price booms jane dokko brian m doyle michael t kiley jinill kim shane sherlund jae sim and skander van den heuvel

growth in women s relative wages and in inequality among men one phenomenon or two although increased wage inequality among men during the past three decades has received more attention the growth in women s wages has been equally remarkable in fact by one measure of inequality the ninth decile median ratio the proportional growth in inequality has moved in exact proportion with the female male wage ratio it is suggested that both result from expansion in the value of brains relative to brawn there is no way of knowing the full story of growth in women s relative wages and it is important not to dismiss the import of changing career patterns as is evident in the panel data increasing labor market participation must be important so too are the implications that follow the movement of women from the home to the job

asset bubbles and endogenous growth abstract we study the interaction between productive and nonproductive savings in economies with endogenous long run growth as in the neoclassical growth setting with overlapping generations asset bubbles can exist in an economy with endogenous growth provided that they are not too large and that the growth rate in the equilibrium without bubbles exceeds the interest rate here the existence conditions for bubbles reflect parameters of tastes and technology we find that bubbles when they exist retard the growth of the economy perhaps even in the long run and reduce the welfare of all generations born after the bubble appears

fiscal policy in an endogenous growth model in a neoclassical growth model it is possible to make a case for public debt because a balanced growth path may be dynamically inefficient this paper shows that this possibility no longer holds in an endogenous growth model with constant external returns to capital it is shown that an increase in public debt reduces the growth rate so there always exists a future generation that will be harmed and that a reduction in public debt although it increases the growth rate cannot be pareto improving one current generation must be harmed

explaining women s success technological change and the skill content of women s work the closing of the gender wage gap is an ongoing phenomenon in industrialized countries however research has been limited in its ability to understand the causes of these changes due in part to an inability to directly compare the work of women to that of men in this study we use a new approach for analyzing changes in the gender pay gap that uses direct measures of job tasks and gives a comprehensive characterization of how work for men and women has changed in recent decades using data from west germany we find that women have witnessed relative increases in non routine analytic tasks and non routine interactive tasks which are associated with higher skill levels the most notable difference between the genders is however the pronounced relative decline in routine task inputs among women with little change for men these relative task changes explain a substantial fraction of the closing of the gender wage gap our evidence suggests that these task changes are driven at least in part by technological change we also show that these task changes are related to the recent polarization of employment between low and high skilled occupations that we observed in the 1990s

asset prices exchange rates and the current account this paper analyses the role of asset prices in comparison to other factors in particular exchange rates as a driver of the us trade balance it employs a bayesian structural var model that requires imposing only a minimum of economically meaningful sign restrictions we find that equity market shocks and housing price shocks have been major determinants of the us current account in the past accounting for up to 30 of the movements of the us trade balance at a horizon of 20 quarters by contrast shocks to the real exchange rate have been less relevant explaining about 9 and exerting a more temporary effect on the us trade balance our findings suggest that large exchange rate movements may not necessarily be the key element of an adjustment of today s large current account imbalances and that in particular relative global asset price changes could be a potent source of adjustment

population pessimism and economic optimism in the asian giants the timing of china s and india s demographic transitions and the implications of alternative fertility scenarios are explored here using a global economic model incorporating full demographic behaviour and measures of dependency that accurately reflect the changing proportion of workers rather than working aged in the total population the baseline scenario confirms that demographic change in india may yield significant gains to future real per capita income resulting from a continuing sharp decline in its total dependency ratio for china these gains are largely in the past although the positive contribution of declining youth and working aged dependency to future per capita income will continue to offset the negative impact of rising aged dependency through to 2030 whilst a policy change to foster higher fertility rates and hence more rapid population growth in china might ultimately ease its dependency burden in the short run it will increase it in any case such a course is contradictory to the goal of delivering improvements in real per capita income for india we confirm that the benefits of further fertility reductions in the form of increased real per capita income are substantial

new technologies and the labor market abstract using newspaper job ad text from 1960 to 2000 we measure job tasks and the adoption of individual information and communication technologies icts most new technologies are associated with an increase in nonroutine analytic tasks and a decrease in nonroutine interactive routine cognitive and routine manual tasks we embed these interactions in a quantitative model of worker sorting across occupations and technology adoption through the lens of the model the arrival of icts broadly shifts workers away from routine tasks which increases the college premium a notable exception is the microsoft office suite which has the opposite set of effects

swimming upstream trends in the gender wage differential in the 1980s using michigan panel study of income dynamics data for 1979 and 1988 we analyze how a falling gender wage gap occurred despite changes in wage structure unfavorable to low wage workers the decrease is traced to gender specific factors which more than counterbalanced changes in measured and unmeasured prices working against women supply shifts net of demand were unfavorable for women generally and hurt high skilled more than middle and low skilled women by analyzing wages we find support for the notion of a gender twist in supply and demand having its largest negative effect on high skilled women

computing productivity firm level evidence we explore the effect of computerization on productivity and output growth using data from 527 large us firms over 1987 1994 we find that computerization makes a contribution to measured productivity and output growth in the short term using one year differences that is consistent with normal returns to computer investments however the productivity and output contributions associated with computerization are up to five times greater over long periods using five to seven year differences the results suggest that the observed contribution of computerization is accompanied by relatively large and time consuming investments in complementary inputs such as organizational capital that may be omitted in conventional calculations of productivity the large long run contribution of computers and their associated complements that we uncover may partially explain the subsequent investment surge in computers in the late 1990s

growth enhancing bubbles this article challenges the conventional wisdom that speculation in financial markets reduces long run growth it shows that the real impact of a rational deterministic speculative bubble depends on the type of asset that is being speculated on speculative bubbles on equity raise the market value of firms thus encouraging entrepreneurship firm creation investment and growth on the other hand speculation on other types of assets is shown to be unambiguously growth impairing the model can explain some stylized facts about financial development and growth finally regulatory implications are discussed briefly