technological activity and survival of firms abstract the paper presents new evidence on the effect of technological activity on the post entry performance of firms by comparing firm survival across technical and non technical products and over stages of differing technological activity it attempts to resolve two seemingly contradictory hypotheses that uncertainty inherent in high technological activity reduces the probability of survival and that technological activity increases the probability of entrant survival the empirical results in the context of the product life cycle framework show that entering firms enjoy a higher probability of survival in stages of high technological activity and in products that are more technical in nature however the hazard function the probability of failure conditional on age is higher for technical products reflecting the adverse effects of technical uncertainty and obsolescence of incumbent knowledge

the effect of crises on firm exit and the moderating effect of firm size abstract the liability of smallness assumption suggests that smaller firms face higher exit risks however does it apply during crises we show that during downturns size reduces firms exit risk by less the hazard rate increases more rapidly in size

contract renewal under uncertainty abstract the incentive to adjust prices is considered from a bilateral perspective in a setting where changes in outside opportunities drive the incentive to renew contracts and costs preclude continuous renewal a model encompassing several contract forms is formulated and the existence of an equilibrium to the bilateral renewal game is established prices display inertia and the incumbent contract is found to be more resistant to changes in outside opportunities the larger the costs of contract renewal the variability of outside opportunities and the lower the discount rate the model is shown to match a number of empirical observations on contracts

bureaucratic behavior in the local public sector a revealed preference approach public sector bureaucratic utility is typically assumed to be a function ofbudget size or government employment although intuitively appealing thereare no definitive direct tests of the assumption to fill this gap thispaper exploits data that isolate resource allocation decisions made by localpublic sector bureaucrats we use revealed preference theory to find thatthe bureaucracy behaves as if bureaucratic utility is an increasingfunction of employment across government functions and public spending providing direct evidence justifying the popular assumption in theoreticalmodels of government behavior

are risky assets substitutes for monetary assets i introduction financial innovation over the past couple of decades has enhanced the liquidity of many financial assets particularly noncapital certain risky assets further financial assets previously not regarded as monetary assets such as mutual funds and particularly money market mutual funds now provide monetary services such as liquidity and transactions services l given the increased liquidity of such funds the question arises as to whether risky assets are substitutes for capital certain monetary assets if noncapital certain assets are indeed substitutes for capital certain assets and are also being used for transactions purposes then agents may be treating risky assets as money although this issue has been addressed in the united states in the context of the addition of bond funds to m2 by for example duca 1995 no such research has yet been conducted in the united kingdom including risky assets in the analysis contradicts the work of ando and shell 1975 spencer 1986 appendix i pp 184 93 and spencer 1994 broadly they argue that since some nonrisky assets provide monetary services and probability also liquidity individuals would not hold risky assets for these purposes 2 in contrast hicks 1935 states that falling transaction costs and rising wealth encourages individuals to increase the proportion of risky assets in portfolio holdings most studies generally assume that risky assets fail to provide significant monetary services and for example have been excluded from the asset demand analysis of barr and cuthbertson 1991a drake fleissig and swofford 1997 and money demand studies such as taylor 1987 belongia and chrystal 1991 drake and chrystal 1994 and drake 1996 alternatively barr and cuthbertson 1991b use only risky assets in their asset demand system analysis the degree of substitution between risky assets and capital certain assets is an empirical issue while noncapital certain risky assets mutual funds and other financial assets may well be becoming closer substitutes for what people are using as money they are in no way perfect substitutes for the highly liquid cash assets to evaluate the role of noncapital certain assets we construct a noncapital certain risky divisia aggregate consisting of equities government bonds and unit trusts the divisia index allows for less than perfect substitution between assets and weights component assets according to their differing degrees of moneyness which may vary over time due to many factors for example financial innovation see barnett 1980 this methodology has been widely applied to monetary aggregation and money demand studies in a number of countries as in belongia 1996 drake 1996 drake and chrystal 1997 and anderson jones and nesmith 1997 to determine whether risky assets are substitutes for capital certain assets we use two other divisia aggregates constructed from traditional measures of money the first of these is an aggregate of highly liquid zero yield cash assets given that the component assets all have zero own rates of return however divisia aggregation is equivalent in this case to simple summation the second aggregate is a divisia aggregate of interest bearing capital certain assets including risky assets complicates the analysis because the degree of risk aversion will affect the estimates of substitution between capital certain and noncapital certain assets thus we also analyze how different degrees of risk aversion affect the results the substitution relationship between assets is estimated from an asymptotically ideal model aim the choice of an aim is in line with the recommendation of barnett fisher and serletis 1992 that flexible systems of demand equations should be used that allow for nonlinear optimizing behavior by economic agents furthermore this paper can be seen as an extension of the recent application of this model to u

the effects of shock size and type on labor contract duration empirical studies of the relation between uncertainty and the length of union firm contracts have focused on the effects of inflation money supply or industry specific uncertainty this article describes two extensions of previous work first real aggregate uncertainty arising from oil shocks is incorporated into a contract duration model oil shocks significantly affect contract length in seven of 21 u s manufacturing industries second the model is used to test whether the duration of reopenable bargains is positively related to uncertainty associated with large shocks as has been described in danziger the evidence indicates some qualified support for this proposition

effect of credit guarantee policy on survival and performance of smes in republic of korea this study evaluates the effect of credit guarantee on smes at the firm level to estimate the effect of credit guarantee we analyze relations between credit guarantee the survival of guaranteed firms and their productive performance the result indicates that credit guarantee frequency enabled guaranteed firms to achieve good performances in general on the contrary the effect of guarantee amounts is ambiguous in that there is difference between the contemporary effect and the lagged effect therefore we conclude that credit guarantee satisfied partially its goal to alleviate smes difficulty in acquiring finance and to stabilize employment

which road leads to stable money demand this paper denies that the demand for money function is any more unstable than other demand functions and maintains that the controversies regarding unstable money demand are produce by poor methodology that is not shared by other areas of the field of economics when investigating demand function properties this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the level and uncertainty of inflation results from oecd forecasts bryce e kanago there is considerable evidence that inflation variability and the level of inflation are positively related across countries evidence of a within county relation is mixed evidence for a significant positive relation comes mostly from studies using some survey measure contrary evidence comes mostly from studies using regression errors our measure of uncertainty is the squared forecast error from organization for economic cooperation and development inflation forecasts most countries do not exhibit a positive and significant relation the greatest number of positive coefficients is for relative uncertainty regressed on contemporaneous inflation jel e310 e370 1342 1340 1323 i introduction although empirical studies have not reached a unanimous conclusion most economists believe one detriment of high inflation is the greater uncertainty it generates about future inflation affirmative evidence of a positive relation between inflation and uncertainty is most frequently found in cross country studies that regress some measure of variability or uncertainty for each country on their average inflation rate time series regressions for individual countries provide mixed results those time series studies that derive inflation uncertainty from a survey of forecasters conclude that higher inflation causes greater uncertainty time series studies that derive uncertainty from ex post regressions constructed by researchers provide most of the negative evidence 1 it is tempting to dismiss this negative evidence as the consequence of poorly or opportunistically constructed ex post forecasts in this paper we use annual inflation forecasts for organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries that have been published in the oecd s economic outlook for about 30 years these data circumvent the problems of constructing forecasts after the fact for each date and each country a single forecast is provided by contrast survey data such as the livingston data average the forecasts of a number of respondents to the extent that the survey sample is representative of the population the surveys may provide a better approximation to the public s expectations however survey respondents have nothing to lose if their forecasts are wildly inaccurate whereas professional forecasters put their reputation on the line a distinct advantage of the published forecasts is that the oecd provides forecasts for 24 countries whereas surveys are available for only a few countries of course ex post forecasts could be constructed for the same set of countries while these ex post forecasts could utilize modern econometrics techniques such as autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity arch and time varying parameters they cannot replicate the specialized human capital the judgment or the particular perspective of the times that were used to construct ex ante forecasts davis and kanago 1998 regressed the squared error from ex ante inflation forecasts produced and published by business international on inflation and found no significant relation for most countries this result makes it less tempting to dismiss the time series evidence of ex post inflation forecasts we extend the results of davis and kanago 1998 by computing the same regression but using squared errors from ex ante forecasts made by the oecd and published in economic outlook the 24 countries in the oecd data include canada iceland luxembourg new zealand the united states and turkey that are not included in the business international data for some countries the oecd data includes a few more years than the business international data the results from the oecd and business international data are broadly similar few countries show a significant relation between inflation and uncertainty we further test the robustness of these results by using relative uncertainty as the dependent variable

sovereign stress and smes access to finance evidence from the ecb s safe survey abstract we study the effect of sovereign stress on smes capital structure using restricted access data from the european central bank we find that during the sovereign debt crisis and controlling for borrowers quality firms in stressed countries became more likely to be denied credit to be credit rationed and to face higher loan rates less creditworthy firms were not more likely to become credit constrained suggesting no flight to quality in lending we also find that in order to make up for the decline in bank credit firms in stressed countries began relying considerably more on retained earnings and government subsidies

delays in renewal of labor contracts theory and evidence in many countries an expired labor contract is automatically extended during the often protracted delay before the new contract is signed our theoretical model focuses on macroeconomic factors in explaining the delay it emphasizes the importance of the realized nominal and real shocks and of the levels of nominal and real uncertainty the model is tested using israeli collective wage agreements where long delays are frequent the empirical findings strongly support the theoretical model thus nominal uncertainty is found to increase the delay and real uncertainty to decrease the delay but less in the public than in the private sector

schumpeterian patterns of innovation using patent data for four countries germany france united kingdom and italy for the period 1968 1986 the authors find that the patterns of innovative activities differ systematically across technological classes while remarkable similarities emerge across countries in the patterns of innovative activities for each technological class this result strongly suggests that technological imperatives and technology specific factors closely linked to technological regimes play a major role in determining the patterns of innovative activities across countries schumpeter proposed two major patterns of innovative activities the first one labelled by nelson and winter 1982 and kamien and schwartz 1982 as schumpeter mark i is proposed in the theory of economic development 1934 in this work schumpeter examined the typical european industrial structure of the late nineteenth century characterised by many small firms according to this view the pattern of innovative activity is characterised by technological ease of entry in an industry and by a major role played by new firms in innovative activities new entrepreneurs come in an industry with new ideas new products or new processes launch new enterprises which challenge established firms and thus continuously disrupt the current ways of production organisation and distribution and wipe out the quasi rents associated with previous innovations the second one labelled schumpeter mark ii is proposed in capitalism socialism and democracy 1942 in this work inspired by the features of the american industry of the first half of the twentieth century schumpeter discussed the relevance of the industrial r d laboratory for technological innovation and the key role of large firms according to this view the pattern of innovative activities is characterised by the prevalence of large established firms and by relevant barriers to entry for new innovators large firms have institutionalised the innovation process with the creation of r d laboratories filled with researchers technicians and engineers with their accumulated stock of knowledge in specific technological areas their advanced competence in large scale r d projects production and distribution and their relevant financial resources they create barriers to entry to new entrepreneurs and small firms

contract duration evidence from franchising abstract economists generally view standard franchise contracts as efficient while franchisee advocates view them as exploitive consistent with the economic view we find that contract duration is positively and significantly related to the franchisee s physical and human capital investments which are often firm specific in contrast to assertions by franchisee advocates we find that these relations exist in subsamples containing only the most established franchisors as measured by size and experience and that larger more experienced franchisors tend to offer longer term contracts than do newer franchisors our evidence also suggests that there is learning across firms about optimal contract terms

is the first to market the first to fail empirical evidence for industrial goods businesses abstract when entering a new market the first entrant typically faces the greatest market and technological uncertainties memorable phrases reflect the associated survival risk such as the first to market is the first to fail and the pioneer is the one with the arrows in its back although research estimates the market pioneer s survival rate the typical pioneer survival rate has not been compared with that of early followers the authors study compares survival rates for 167 first entrant market pioneers versus 267 early followers for these industrial goods businesses 66 of the pioneers versus 48 of the early followers survived at least ten years the main conclusion is that the pioneer s temporary monopoly over the early followers plus its first mover advantages typically offset the survival risks associated with market and technological uncertainties these results are consistent with previous research in the sense that first mover advantages that increase a pioneer s market share also hel

early contract renegotiation an analysis of us labor contracts 1970 1995 this article examines the ex post flexibility of us labor contracts during the 1970 95 period by investigating whether unanticipated changes in inflation increase the likelihood of a contract being renegotiated prior to its expiration we find empirical support for this hypothesis specifically our results indicate that renegotiations are triggered principally by large and infrequent price shocks of either sign when combined with evidence that ex ante contract durations are shorter during episodes of increased inflation uncertainty our results suggest that these contracts are flexible both ex ante and ex post to changes in the evolution of inflation

the determinants of contract length an empirical analysis based on canadian micro data abstract recent theoretical work on the determinants of wage contract length focuses on inflation uncertainty as an explanatory variable additional to the more traditional variable of transactions costs this paper analyses the empirical determinants of contract duration using a large sample of contract data and confirms the conclusions reached in the theoretical literature

a revealed preference analysis of friedman and schwartz money in their seminal series of books friedman and schwartz concluded that the appropriate assets to aggregate into money are currency demand deposits and time deposits issued by commercial banks for this paper i used revealed preference analysis to test the validity of this conclusion i find that these financial assets pass tests for the existence of a monetary aggregate consistent with the economic theory of aggregation over goods for a short period after world war ii the data are consistent with a more broadly defined monetary aggregate a reputable index number like the divisia index must be employed to form these assets into an aggregate consistent with the economic theory of aggregation copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

uncertainty and labor contract durations this paper provides an empirical investigation into the relationship between ex ante u s labor contract durations and uncertainty over the period 1970 to 1995 we construct measures of inflation uncertainty as well as aggregate nominal and real uncertainty the results not only corroborate previous findings of an inverse relationship between contract durations and inflation uncertainty but also document that this relationship extends to both measures of aggregate uncertainty we also explore the robustness of this relationship to various measures of inflation uncertainty that have appeared in the literature

inflation uncertainty and contract duration this study examines the determinants of the duration of u s union contracts using a longitudinal contract data base support is found for the hypotheses that 1 inflation uncertainty reduces contract length and that 2 greater contracting costs as proxied by a strike variable and by previous duration increase contract length in addition contract duration is found to be greater for indexed contracts to be procyclical and to have increased over the sample period copyright 1989 by mit press

price adjustment and exchange rate pass through abstract this paper develops a simple theoretical model that can be used to account for the determinants of exchange rate pass through to consumer prices while recent evidence has found low estimates of pass through in many countries there is little consensus on an explanation for this our paper argues that sticky prices represent a key determinant of exchange rate pass through we make this argument in two stages first holding the frequency of price change constant we show that our model calibrated to data from low inflation countries can reproduce the estimates of very low pass through for these countries the principal determinant of low pass through in this case is the slow adjustment of prices we then extend the model to allow the frequency of price change to be endogenous calibrating to a wider set of countries including both low inflation and high inflation countries we show that our model implies that exchange rate pass through is increasing in average inflation but at a declining rate performing the identical exercise on the data we find a striking correspondence between the predictions of the model and those of the data

the dynamic laurent flexible form and the demand for money i derive the dynamic full laurent model to estimate economic models that assume a dynamic process the application in this paper is to use the dynamic full laurent to estimate a system of dynamic asset demand equations the main results are that the dynamic full laurent rejects its static version and the estimated elasticities are variable over time results from a monte carlo analysis using a dynamic data generating process show that the prediction errors from the dynamic full laurent are much smaller than those from the static version thus when the data are generated by a dynamic process inferences from the static full laurent model can be severely biased 1997 john wiley sons ltd

nonparametric tests of utility maximization and weak separability for consumption leisure and money some of the most fundamental assumptions of economics are utility maximization and weak separability of the arguments in the represen tative consumer s utility function this paper contains results from nonparametric tests of these assumptions about consumer behavior the authors find that quarterly per capita data on consumption goods le isure and monetary assets are consistent with utility maximization further consumption goods and leisure meet necessary and sufficient conditions for weak separability additionally one grouping of relat ively liquid monetary assets meets the necessary conditions for weak separability they also test and find no evidence of homothetic prefe rences copyright 1987 by mit press

the life cycle of a competitive industry firm numbers first rise then later fall as an industry evolves this nonmonotonicity is explained using a competitive model in which innovation opportunities fuel entry and relative failure to innovate prompts exit equilibrium time paths for price and quantity also share features of the data the model is estimated using data from the u s automobile tire industry a particularly dramatic example of the nonmonotonicity in firm numbers

the measurement and behavior of uncertainty evidence from the ecb survey of professional forecasters summary we examine matched point and density forecasts of output growth inflation and unemployment from the ecb survey of professional forecasters we construct measures of uncertainty from individual histograms and find that the measures display countercyclical behavior and have increased across all forecast horizons since 2007 we also derive measures of forecast dispersion and forecast accuracy and find that they are not reliable proxies for uncertainty there is however evidence of a meaningful co movement between uncertainty and aggregate point predictions for output growth and unemployment these results are robust to changes in the composition of the survey respondents over time copyright 2015 john wiley sons ltd

the effects of real and nominal shocks on union firm contract duration abstract the first theoretical works on labor contract length gray 1978 for example emphasized the existence of a negative relation between contract duration and uncertainty in estimating a linear version of gray s contract length model and an alternative model developed by christofides and wilton our empirical results indicate little evidence of a negative relationship between length and uncertainty in the united states furthermore our findings indicate the presence of significant differences across industries at the two digit sic level in the response of bargain duration to uncertainty