explaining business cycles in small open economies abstract this paper analyzes the role of world price shocks fluctuations in the prices of capital intermediate and primary goods and in the world real interest rate in the generation and propagation of business cycles in small open developing countries i construct a stochastic dynamic multi sector small open economy model the model is a variant of the specific factors model and reflects the major structural characteristics of developing economies i utilize variance decomposition methods to quantitatively evaluate the impact of world price shocks the results indicate that world price shocks account for a significant fraction of business cycle variability in developing countries

on the sources of aggregate fluctuations in emerging economies recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies has advocated introducing a stochastic productivity trend or allowing for interest rate shocks and financial frictions we estimate a model that encompasses these two approaches shedding light on their relative merits and on how financial frictions affect the transmission of shocks the model accounts for aggregate fluctuations by assigning a dominant role to financial frictions in amplifying conventional temporary productivity shocks whereas trend shocks play a minor role a link between spreads and expected future productivity emerges as essential for a reasonable approximation to the data

the response of co2 emissions to the business cycle new evidence for the u s abstract this paper investigates the response of co 2 emissions to the business cycle for the u s on a monthly basis between 1973 and 2015 using a rolling regression approach we find that the emissions elasticity with respect to gdp is not constant over time irrespective which filtering method such as the hodrick prescott the baxter king the christiano fitzgerald or the butterworth filter has been employed in order to check whether or not emissions react differently during normal and recession times next we employ a markov switching approach we find first that emissions are significantly more elastic during recessions than in normal times second depending on the filtering method we also obtain parameter estimates of the emissions elasticity above one in recession times and below one in normal times the results are also robust against including monetary policy also in times of the zero lower bound thus environmental policy instruments not turning out to be sub optimal should account for this asymmetric response of emissions due to changes in gdp

time and punishment an intertemporal model of crime if an increase in the rate at which a criminal commits crimes lowers the expected time until detection the income from crime net of expected fines must be discounted at a rate that varies with the crime rate this paper models the criminal s choice of the optimal crime rate under such conditions it is shown that irrespective of the criminal s attitude toward risk an increase in the probability of detection is more likely to deter crime than a comparable increase in penalties other implications of the model for the optimal enforcement of laws are also explored

forecasting macro variables with a qual var business cycle turning point index one criticism of vector autoregression var forecasting is that macroeconomic variables tend not to behave as linear functions of their own past around business cycle turning points a large amount of literature therefore focuses on nonlinear forecasting models such as markov switching models which only indirectly capture the relation with turning points this article investigates a direct approach to using information on turning points from the national bureau of economic research nber chronology to model and forecast macroeconomic data our qual var model includes a truncated normal latent business cycle index that is negative during nber recessions and positive during expansions we motivate our forecasting exercise by demonstrating that if starting from a linear specification a truncated normal variable is an omitted variable then forecasts of the remaining variables will become nonlinear functions of their own past we apply the qual var model to recursive out of sample forecasting and find th

dynamic control of a monopolist s product and process innovation with reference quality our main purpose is to investigate the dynamic control problem of a monopolist s product and process innovation under reference quality the main features of this article are i a monopolist deal

on the instability of the r d portfolio in a dynamic monopoly or one cannot get two eggs in one basket abstract firms innovation portfolios include several dimensions ranging from organizational aspects to cost reduction and product characteristics all of these efforts take place during the product life cycle and interact with each other in determining the spectrum of features of the product and its performance on the market this paper contributes to the related theoretical debate focussing on the possibility of having superior product quality levels at lower marginal production cost over time to deal with this issue we investigate the optimal r d portfolio of a single product monopolist investing in cost reducing activities accompanied by efforts improving the quality of its product over an infinite time horizon it turns out that the firm s relative incentives along the two directions are conditional upon market affluence measured by consumers willingness to pay for quality and r d efforts are complements in the neighbourhood of the steady state equilibrium however the dynamics of the two r d controls depend on both quality and marginal cost at every instant consequently as the stability analysis reveals the steady state equilibrium is indeed unstable due to the dynamics of marginal cost thereby implying that one should not expect the firm to supply an increasing quality level at a decreasing production cost hence the dynamic interplay between r d controls and the resulting instability affecting production costs also imply that one may not expect to observe product quality to increase and market price to decrease over the product life cycle

the effects of petroleum product price regulation on macroeconomic stability in china abstract china has undertaken measures to regulate the prices of petroleum products since 1998 in order to deal with the world oil price shocks on its macro economy however the effects of price regulation are yet unknown especially when the world oil price fluctuates in different regimes the study first analyses the mechanisms of petroleum product price ppp regulation in the case of gasoline and the crude oil gasoline price fluctuation transmission followed by the identification of regimes and their time intervals using regime switching vector autoregressive model and then estimates the effects of gasoline price regulation in reducing macroeconomic volatility it is found that the world crude oil fluctuates in different regimes the mild fluctuation regime and the violent fluctuation regime the ppp regulation can reduce oil price volatility and then macroeconomic volatility but it is more effective in the mild fluctuation regime the findings present a deeper understanding of the stabilization effect of ppp regulation on the macroeconomy provide an evidence for sustaining china s ppp regulation for the purpose of macroeconomic stability and offer policymakers new information for petroleum product pricing reforms

mixed frequency var models with markov switching dynamics this paper extends the markov switching vector autoregressive models to accommodate both the typical lack of synchronicity that characterizes the real time daily flow of macroeconomic information and economic indicators sampled at different frequencies the results of the empirical application suggest that the model is able to capture the features of the nber business cycle chronology very accurately

what do the leading indicators lead the authors find that the composite leading index cli is useful for forecasting gross national product gnp both in sample and in an out of sample real time exercise they propose a nonlinear specification in which cyclical shifts of the cli precede those in gnp however the authors find that better forecasts are provided by a simple linear relation between current gnp growth and the growth rate of the cli during the previous quarter along with an error correction term corresponding to the previous quarter s logarithmic difference between the level of the cli and the level of gnp copyright 1996 by university of chicago press

extracting nonlinear signals from several economic indicators summary we develop a twofold analysis of how the information provided by several economic indicators can be used in markov switching dynamic factor models to identify the business cycle turning points first we compare the performance of a fully nonlinear multivariate specification one step approach with the shortcut of using a linear factor model to obtain a coincident indicator which is then used to compute the markov switching probabilities two step approach second we examine the role of increasing the number of indicators our results suggest that one step is generally preferred to two steps especially in the vicinity of turning points although its gains diminish as the quality of the indicators increases additionally we also obtain decreasing returns of adding more indicators with similar signal to noise ratios using the four constituent series of the stock watson coincident index we illustrate these results for us data copyright 2014 john wiley sons ltd

help wanted economists crime and public policy beginning with gary w becker s 1968 article on crime and punishment economists have contributed important theoretical insights and empirical findings to the study of criminal behavior but the influence of economists on crime relevant research and over policy debates remains negligible this essay summarizes some basic data on the causes of crime the social costs and benefits of incarceration and replenishing social capital work on crime by economists should become influential in setting research agendas and shaping policy debates but economists will have to roll up their sleeves complexify their models and confront a real world prisoner s dilemma or two

dynamic pricing strategies with reference effects we consider the dynamic pricing problem of a monopolist firm in a market with repeated interactions where demand is sensitive to the firm s pricing history consumers have memory and are prone to human decision making biases and cognitive limitations as the firm manipulates prices consumers form a reference price that adjusts as an anchoring standard based on price perceptions purchase decisions are made by assessing prices as discounts or surcharges relative to the reference price in the spirit of prospect theory we prove that optimal pricing policies induce a perception of monotonic prices whereby consumers always perceive a discount respectively surcharge relative to their expectations the effect is that of a skimming or penetration strategy the firm s optimal pricing path is monotonic on the long run but not necessarily at the introductory stage if consumers are loss averse we show that optimal prices converge to a constant steady state price characterized by a simple implicit equation otherwise the optimal policy cycles the range of steady states is wider the more loss averse consumers are steady state prices decrease with the strength of the reference effect and with customers memory all else equal offering lower prices to frequent customers may be suboptimal however if these are less sensitive to price changes than occasional buyers if managers ignore such long term implications of their pricing strategy the model indicates that they will systematically price too low and lose revenue our results hold under very general reference dependent demand models

a bayesian approach to model changes in volatility in the mexican stock exchange index we model the changes in volatility in the mexican stock exchange index using a bayesian approach we study the time series with a wide set of models characterized by a markov switching heterogeneit

dynamic quality policies with reference quality effects abstractdynamic pricing policies with reference price demand have been intensely analysed less studied are dynamic quality policies with reference quality demand this article studies the dynamic quality policy of a firm whose consumers use a reference point in their decision making in line with the principles of behavioural economics more specifically i consider reference quality formation in an optimal control setting by solving on the basis of pontryagin s maximum principle i obtain analytical solutions to the optimal quality policy the managerial implications of quality reference for dynamic quality policy are discussed

measuring business cycles a modern perspective in the first half of this century special attention was given to two features of the business cycle 1 the comovement of many individual economic series and 2 the different behavior of the economy during expansions and contractions both of these attributes were ignored in many subsequent business cycle models which were often linear representations of a single macroeconomic aggregate however recent theoretical and empirical research has revived interest in each attribute separately notably dynamic factor models have been used to obtain a single common factor from a set of macroeconomic variables and nonlinear models have been used to describe the regime switching nature of aggregate output we survey these two strands of research and then provide some suggestive empirical analysis in an effort to unite the two literatures and to assess their usefulness in a statistical characterization of business cycle dynamics

what happens during recessions crunches and busts we provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 oecd countries over the period 1960 2007 in particular we analyse the implications of 122 recessions 113 28 credit contraction crunch episodes 114 28 episodes of house price declines busts 245 61 episodes of equity price declines busts and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period our results indicate that the interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play a major role in determining the severity and duration of a recession specifically we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions stijn claessens m ayhan kose and marco e terrones

intensity of competition and the choice between product and process innovation abstract two questions are examined within a model of vertical differentiation the first is whether cost reducing innovations are more likely to be observed in regimes of more intense bertrand or less intense cournot competition we find that there are cost reducing innovations that are pursued under cournot but not under bertrand competition the second is whether the regime of competition affects a firm s choice between product and process innovation we show that for the high quality firm whenever there is a difference between the choice made by a bertrand competitor and the choice made by a cournot competitor the former opts for product innovation while the latter prefers process innovation for the low quality firm the result is reversed

process and product innovation by a multiproduct monopolist a dynamic approach abstract we adopt a dynamic approach to model the behaviour of a multiproduct monopolist investing in process innovation and either product differentiation or product proliferation or both irrespective of the number of activities appearing in the r d portfolio we prove that depending on initial conditions there may exists substitutability between process innovation and either form of product innovation along the optimal path towards the steady state while in the latter only complementarity emerges looking at the threefold investment plan we qualitatively characterise the ranking of r d activities in terms of the consumer reservation price and the extent of the spectrum of varieties

measuring poverty in a growing world or measuring growth in a poor world the extent to which growth reduces global poverty has been disputed for 30 years although there are better data than ever before controversies are not resolved a major problem is that consumption measured from household surveys which is used to measure poverty grows less rapidly than consumption measured in national accounts in the world as a whole and in large countries particularly india china and the united states in consequence measured poverty has fallen less rapidly than appears warranted by measured growth in poor countries one plausible cause is that richer households are less likely to participate in surveys but growth in the national accounts is also upward biased and consumption in the national accounts contains large and rapidly growing items that are not consumed by the poor and not included in surveys so it is possible for consumption of the poor to grow less rapidly than national consumption without any increase in measured inequality current statistical procedures in poor

viewpoint boosting recessions this paper explores the effectiveness of boosting often regarded as the state of the art classification tool in giving warning signals of recessions 3 6 and 12 months ahead boosting is used to screen as many as 1 500 potentially relevant predictors consisting of 132 real and financial time series and their lags estimation over the full sample 1961 1 2011 12 finds that there are fewer than 10 important predictors and the identity of these variables changes with the forecast horizon there is a distinct difference in the size and composition of the relevant predictor set before and after mid 1980 rolling window estimation reveals that the importance of the term and default spreads are recession specific the aaa spread is the most robust predictor of recessions three and 6 months ahead while the risky bond and 5 year spreads are important for 12 months ahead predictions certain employment variables have predictive power for the two most recent recessions when the interest rate spreads were uninformative warning signals for the post 1990 recessions have been sporadic and easy to miss the results underscore the challenge that changing characteristics of business cycles pose for predicting recessions prevoir les recessions ce texte explore l efficacite de la methode dite du boosting qu on considere souvent comme un instrument de classification qui est a la fine pointe de l art de prevoir les recessions 3 6 et 12 mois a l avance cette methode est utilisee pour passer au crible quelques 1500 predicteurs potentiellement pertinents construits a partir de 132 series chronologiques de variables reelles et financieres plus ou moins decalees des estimations de l echantillon complet pour la periode du debut de 1961 a la fin de 2011 revelent qu aussi peu que dix predicteurs sont importants et que l identite de ces variables change selon l horizon de prevision considere il y a aussi une difference marquee dans la taille et la composition de cet ensemble de predicteurs avant et apres le milieu des annees 1980 il appert que l importance des ecarts de credit ecarts des taux d interet et des risques de defaut de paiement est specifique a la recession particuliere l ecart aaa est le predicteur le plus robuste des recessions dans trois et six mois alors que la debenture risquee et l ecart des taux d interet pour la fenetre de 5 ans sont les predicteurs importants pour un horizon temporel de 12 mois certaines variables reliees a l emploi ont eu un certain pouvoir de prediction pour les deux dernieres recessions quand les ecarts de taux d interet n ont pas ete eclairants les signaux des clignotants pour les recessions d apres 1990 ont ete sporadiques et faciles a manquer les resultats soulignent le defi que posent a ceux qui font des previsions de recessions les caracteristiques changeantes des cycles economiques

dynamic r d with spillovers competition vs cooperation abstract we investigate dynamic r d for process innovation in a cournot duopoly where firms may either undertake independent ventures or form a cartel for cost reducing r d investments by comparing the profit and welfare performances of the two settings in steady state we show that private and social incentives towards r d cooperation coincide for all admissible levels of the technological spillovers characterising innovative activity we also evaluate the whole history of the dynamic system along the transition to the steady state showing that the conflict between private and social incentives does not necessarily emerge

nonlinear forecasting analysis using diffusion indexes an application to japan this paper extends the diffusion index di forecast approach of stock and watson 1998 2002 to the case of possibly nonlinear dynamic factor models when the number of series is large a two step procedure based onthe method of principal components is useful since it allows wide variety of nonlinearity in the factors the factors extracted from a large japanese data suggest some evidence of nonlinear structure furthermore both the linear and nonlinear di forecasts in japan outperform traditional time series forecasts while the linear di forecast in most cases performs as well as the nonlinear di forecast

supply quality management with wholesale price and revenue sharing contracts under horizontal competition abstract in a number of industries e g the airplane industry aerospace industry auto industry or computer industry certain suppliers essentially have a monopoly on the production technology for key components and inevitably manufacturers in these industries have common suppliers a key part of manufacturers work with suppliers concerns improving the quality of their respective products which gives rise to a collaborative activity usually termed as supply quality management when the manufacturers are competitors they do not wish to see a common supplier dividing his involvement in quality improvement unequally between themselves and their rivals however as the suppliers collaborate with several manufacturers it is highly questionable whether their efforts will be strictly equivalent for each manufacturer in this paper a non cooperative dynamic game is formulated in which a single supplier collaborates with two manufacturers on design quality improvements for their respective products the manufacturers compete for market demand both on price and design quality the paper analyzes how each party should allocate resources for quality improvement over time in order to take into account the potential coordinating power of the compensation scheme adopted in this type of decentralized setting we compare the possible outcomes under a wholesale price contract and a revenue sharing contract

model averaging in markov switching models predicting national recessions with regional data this paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing markov switching models in the empirical application we forecast u s business cycle turning points with state level employment data we find that forecasts obtained with our best combination scheme provide timely updates of u s recessions in that they outperform a notoriously difficult benchmark to beat the anxious index from the survey of professional forecasters for short term forecasts

business cycle turning points a new coincident index and tests of duration dependence based on a dynamic factor model with regime switching the synthesis of the dynamic factor model of stock and watson 1989 and the regime switching model of hamilton 1989 proposed by diebold and rudebusch 1996 potentially encompasses both features of the business cycle identified by burns and mitchell 1946 1 comovement among economic variables through the cycle and 2 nonlinearity in its evolution however maximum likelihood estimation has required approximation recent advances in multimove gibbs sampling methodology open the way to approximation free inference in such non gaussian nonlinear models this paper estimates the model for u s data and attempts to address three questions are both features of the business cycle empirically relevant might the implied new index of coincident indicators be a useful one in practice do the resulting estimates of regime switches show evidence of duration dependence the answers to all three would appear to be yes

a new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series maximum likelihood factor analysis of time series is possible even when some series are quarterly and others are monthly treating quarterly series as monthly series with missing observations and replacing them with artificial observations independent of the model parameters one can apply the kalman filter to a state space representation of a factor model and evaluate the likelihood function an application to quarterly real gdp and monthly coincident business cycle indicators gives a new coincident index of business cycles the new index is essentially the smoothed estimate of latent monthly real gdp and should improve upon the stock watson index

quality and the diffusion of innovations in this paper we solve the problem of optimal control of products diffusion by quality in a context of monopolistic competition to do so we introduce a dynamic demand function leaning on two hypotheses first price acts a signal of quality second demand is more sensitive to quality than to price using the maximum principle of pontryagin we then characterize the optimal dynamic trajectory of quality and its qualitative properties

incentive and incarceration effects in a general equilibrium model of crime an intertemporal general equilibrium model of criminal behavior is used to analyze the effect on crime of changing policy parameters the policy parameters are the length of the prison term the severity of punishment and the amount of police resources the number of crimes in society can be decomposed into an incentive part an incarceration part and a crime competition part the magnitudes of these three components are studied by means of empirical data from england and the us

currency crashes in emerging markets an empirical treatment we use a panel of annual data for over 100 developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes we define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation we examine the composition of the debt as well as its level and a variety of other macroeconomic factors external and foreign crashes tend to occur when output growth is low the growth of domestic credit is high and the level of foreign interest rates are high a low ratio of fdi to debt is consistently associated with a high likelihood of a crash

dissecting the cycle a methodological investigation following burns and mitchell we define the cycle as a pattern in the level of aggregate economic activity an algorithm to locate turning points is developed as is a new measure of pro cyclicality a link between turning points and the moments of the series is established thereby providing the statistical foundation that burns and mitchell s work lacked using these tools we are able to dissect cycles in terms of the contributions made by trend growth volatility serial correlation and non linear effects we dissect several models and find little evidence that certain non linear effects are important to the nature of business cycles

forecasting us recessions with macro factors dynamic factors estimated from panels of macroeconomic indicators are used to predict future recessions using probit models three factors are considered a bond and exchange rates factor a stock market factor and a real activity factor three results emerge first models that use only financial indicators exhibit a large deterioration in fit after 2005 second models that use factors yield better fit than models that use indicators directly out of sample forecasting exercises confirm these results for 3 6 and 12 month horizons using both ex post revised data and real time data third results show evidence that data revisions affect factors less than individual indicators

why not hang them all the virtues of inefficient punishment replacing a criminal punishment with another that both is more severe and has a lower ratio of punishment cost to amount of punishment while reducing the probability of conviction to maintain the same level of deterrence lowers both punishment cost and enforcement cost hence imprisonment is always dominated by execution and both are dominated by fines and other alternatives moden legal systems do not fit that pattern one possible explanation is that the ability enforces to profit by convictions and produce costly rent seeking examples include product liability litigation civil forfeiture and fraudulent prosecution motivated by rewards in eighteenth0 century england the problem was avoided by the use of infficient punishments in the legal system of saga period iceland and the private norms of shasta county california execution while not directly profitable for enforcers facilitates rent seeking through threats leading to out of court settlements

stock market cycles financial liberalization and volatility in this paper we analyze the cycles of the stock markets in four latin american and two asian countries and we compare their characteristics we divide our sample in two subperiods in order to account for differences induced by the financial liberalization processes of the early 1990s we find that cycles in emerging countries tend to have shorter duration and larger amplitude and volatility than in developed countries however after financial liberalization latin american stock markets have behaved more similarly to stock markets in developed countries whereas asian countries have become more dissimilar concordance of cycles across markets has increased significantly over time especially for latin american countries after liberalization

inventories and the three phases of the business cycle this article demonstrates that recessions typically are followed by high growth recovery phases that push output back to its prerecession level thus postwar fluctuations in real output in the united states have consisted of three sequential phases rather than two contractions high growth recoveries and moderate growth periods following recoveries data from before world war ii also exhibit this pattern for the postwar period the three phase pattern is shown to reflect swings in inventory investment and suggests that output fluctuations have an important transitory component the evidence in this article supports delong and summers s output gaps view and friedman s plucking model view of fluctuations

the dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of u s business cycles this paper investigates the dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of post war u s business cycles we specify a time series model for real gnp and consumption in which the two share a common stochastic trend and transitory component and markov regime switching is used to model business cycle phases in these components the timing of switches between business cycle phases is allowed to differ across the permanent and transitory components we find strong evidence of a lead lag relationship between the switches in the two components specifically switches in the permanent component leads switches in the transitory component when entering recessions

rejoinder to james hamilton hamilton 2001 makes a number of comments on our paper harding and pagan 2002b the objectives of this rejoinder are firstly to note the areas in which we agree secondly to define with greater clarity the areas in which we disagree and thirdly to point to other papers including a longer version of this response where we have dealt with some of the issues that he raises the core of our debate with him is whether one should use an algorithm with a specified set of rules for determining the turning points in economic activity or whether one should use a parametric model that features latent states hamilton begins his criticism by stating that there is a philosophical distinction between the two methods for dating cycles and concludes that the method we use leaves vague and intuitive exactly what this algorithm is intended to measure nothing is further from the truth when seeking ways to decide on whether a turning point has occurred it is always useful to ask the question what is a recession common usage suggests that it is a decline in the level of economic activity that lasts for some time for this reason it has become standard to describe a recession as a decline in gdp that lasts for more than two quarters finding periods in which quarterly gdp declined for two periods is exactly what our approach does what is vague about this

an economic analysis of the age crime profile abstract the age crime profile is one of the most established and prominent empirical regularities in social science this paper formulates an economic dynamic model of illegal behavior to explain the age crime profile the model offers a new interpretation of the age crime profile that is entirely different from the prevailing one in the literature the implications of the model are testable and are consistent with the empirical evidence examined in the paper the analysis shows that intertemporal criminal decisions can be modeled as a dynamic consumption investment problem

the dynamics of capital flow episodes nous proposons une methodologie nouvelle pour reperer les episodes de flux importants de capitaux cette methode repose sur un modele de markov a changement de regime le grand avantage de ce type de modeles sur les approches retenues dans la litterature est qu il permet de classifier les mouvements de capitaux en differents regimes sans qu il soit necessaire de formuler des hypotheses specifiques au contexte ou a l echantillon choisi

a dynamic analysis of investment in process and product innovation with learning by doing this paper investigates the optimal control problem of a monopolist s investments in process and product innovation under learning by doing in a dynamic setting we show that i there exists the saddle stable steady state under monopolist optimum and social optimum ii the learning rates of product and process innovation affect not only the monopolist s process or product innovation investments but also the complementarity substitutability relationship between product and process innovation iii the social incentive towards both product and process innovation is always larger than the private incentive characterizing the profit seeking monopolist these results are valuable complement and development to the results drawn from the standard product and process innovation model

product and process innovation with knowledge accumulation in monopoly a dynamic analysis abstract in this paper we investigate monopolist optimal investment levels using a dynamic model under knowledge accumulation we show that i investment decisions in product and process innovation are independent of each other ii under both the monopolist and the social optimum there exist the saddle stable steady state equilibria iii optimal investment levels in product and process innovation positive response to learning rate and knowledge accumulation rate inversely response to knowledge depreciation rate

dual role of price and myopia in a marketing channel abstract in this paper we study a dynamic two player channel where the manufacturer controls the wholesale price and the investment in quality and the retailer chooses the retail price we consider that the retail price affects both the demand and the perceived quality of the brand and that its variations contribute to the building of an internal reference price one of the model s distinctive features is that it accounts for the two meanings of price i e its classical objective measure of the cost of acquiring a particular quantity of the product and its subjective roles as an assessment of the quality of the product and an evaluation of gains or losses deal vs sacrifice resulting from buying a cheap or an expensive product this dual computation is done with respect to the internal reference price our objective is to investigate the impact of retailer s myopia on the pricing strategies and payoffs of channel members in this context a myopic retailer is an agent that disregards the effects of its pricing strategy on the evolution of the perceived brand quality and the reference price

a model of optimal incapacitation one of the functions of the criminal sanctions of imprisonment and the death sentence is to prevent individuals from doing harm by removing them from the population this incapacitative function of sanctions is considered below in a model in which the amount of harm individuals cause each period that they are free is not influenced by the threat of sanctions so as to abstract from the role of sanctions as a deterrent 2 the model is initially examined assuming that an individual s dangerousness i e the harm he will do if free remains the same each period of his life and that the sanction is imprisonment in this case it is optimal to imprison an individual if his dangerousness exceeds a threshold equal to the per period social cost of imprisonment moreover if it is optimal to imprison an individual at all it will be best to do so for life the optimal probability of apprehension is also determined the model is then extended in several ways it is first supposed that the dangerousness of individuals declines with age in this case it is again optimal to imprison individuals if their dangerousness exceeds the per period cost of imprisonment but it is optimal to release them if their dangerousness later falls below the threshold it is next supposed that the dangerousness of individuals declines with time spent in prison due to a rehabilitative effect in this case it is optimal to imprison individuals beginning at a lower threshold of dangerousness than the per period cost of imprisonment imprisonment is now socially more valuable and to release them if their dangerousness becomes sufficiently low finally it is supposed that a choice can be made between imprisonment and the death penalty and the optimal choice is discussed

myopic deterrence policies and the instability of equilibria we develop a general equilibrium model of crime in which honest workers face an effective tax rate on earnings consisting of an exogenous income tax used to pay for policing and an endogenous crime tax given by the proportion of their disposable income that is stolen when there are two stable equilibria the low crime equilibrium is welfare dominant and furthermore welfare is a decreasing function of the income tax rate however as the income tax rate is reduced the degree of stability of the low crime equilibrium diminishes until for sufficiently low tax rates the low crime equilibrium is unstable with respect to any small positive perturbation in the crime rate thus myopic maximization of social welfare exposes the economy to random shocks in the crime rate that can destroy the preferred low crime equilibrium we argue that this dilemma between economizing on resources used for deterrence and ensuring the stability of the most desirable equilibrium is a fundamental trade off in the design of many institutions intended to control antisocial behavior including rent seeking corruption and theft

have business cycles changed over the last two decades an empirical investigation abstract we document the properties of business cycles of 71 countries 23 industrial countries and 48 emerging market economies or emes from 1970q1 to 2012q4 using the harding and pagan dating algorithm first recessions are deeper steeper and costlier among emes especially in east asia and latin america second recoveries are swifter and stronger among emes partly due to stronger rebound effects third recessions became less costly during the globalization period 1985 2007 for industrial countries and emes thus reflecting institutional changes made during the great moderation fourth the dynamic behavior of macroeconomic indicators around peaks in real gdp is more volatile in downturns associated with crisis compared to other downturns fifth peaks in financial cycles credit and asset prices tend to precede peaks in real output cycles finally although both industrial and emerging markets have experienced deep recessions during the recent global financial crisis the emerging markets have recovered faster

product innovation incentives by an incumbent firm a dynamic analysis we employ a dynamic framework to study how product innovation activities of a firm are influenced by its investments in production capacity of an established product and vice versa the firm initially has capacity to sell an established product additionally it also has the option to undertake an r d project which upon completion allows the firm to introduce a new vertically and horizontally differentiated product to the market thereby extending its current product range the breakthrough probability of detecting the new product depends on both the value of the firm s r d stock and its current r d investment it is shown that the initial production capacity for the established product influences the intensity of r d activities of the firm in particular there are constellations such that for large initial production capacity for the established product the firm never invests in r d and the new product is never introduced for small initial capacity the firm keeps investing in r d implying that eventually the new product is always introduced finally for an intermediate range of initial capacity levels the firm initially invests in product r d but then reduces these investments to zero in this scenario the new product is introduced with a positive probability which is however substantially smaller than 1 from a technical perspective this analysis gives the example of a new type of skiba threshold phenomenon in the framework of a multi mode optimization model

product differentiation process r d and the nature of market competition abstract we investigate the relationship between process and product rd ii bertrand firms have a stronger incentive for product rd and iii cooperation in product r d promotes both types of r d relative to competition whereas cooperation in both types of r d discourages r d relative to cooperation in just product r d

an econometric characterization of business cycle dynamics with factor structure and regime switching a dynamic factor model with regime switching is proposed as an empirical characterization of business cycles the approach integrates the idea of comovements among macroeconomic variables and asymmetries of business cycle expansions and contractions the first is captured with an unobservable dynamic factor and the second by allowing the factor to switch regimes the model is estimated by maximizing its likelihood function and the empirical results indicate that the combination of these two features leads to a successful representation of the data relative to extant literature this holds for within and out of sample and for both revised and real time data copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

a general equilibrium model of crime and punishment abstract a model of crime and punishment is developed where individuals who differ in their earnings abilities choose between work and crime taking the probability and consequences of punishment into account an aggregate relationship between the probability of punishment and the level of crime is derived there is also a relationship between enforcement spending the number of criminals and the number punished in such an economy the possibility of multiple equilibria and the effects of changes in enforcement spending and in inequality on the levels of crime and punishment are discussed there is also discussion of social welfare and voting behavior

crime punishment and the market for offenses crime is a subject of intense emotions conflicting ideologies however economists have generally explained it as a reflection of individual choice and equilibrating market forces two major themes of the literature are outlined the evolution of a market model to explain the diversity of crime across time and space and the debate about the usefulness of positive versus negative incentives systematic analyses generally indicate that crime is affected on the margin by both positive and negative incentives there are serious limitations to the effectiveness of incapacitation and rehabilitation and optimal enforcement strategies involve trade offs between narrow efficiency and equity considerations

dynamic pricing product and process innovation abstract the question of simultaneous dynamic pricing product and process investment policies is crucial for manufacturing and high tech industries this paper models these policies in an optimal control setting on the supply side the firm sets prices product and process investment levels over time on the demand side current demand depends on price and quality under an additive separable demand function dynamic pricing increases with quality and cost therefore both product innovation and process innovation impact the pricing policy under a multiplicative separable demand function dynamic pricing policy follows the dynamic of production cost and is independent of the evolution of product quality thus process innovation is the main determinant of a firm s pricing policy over time and product innovation has no impact

a general equilibrium model of crime commission and prevention abstract the model developed in this paper features a general equilibrium specification of the relationships among criminals victims of crime and a law enforcement agency these relationships are employed to endogenously derive an explicit intuitively appealing technology of crime commission and prevention the solution to the present model is therefore obtained with a set of more elementary assumptions than the previous literature where arbitrary curvature assumptions are invoked

conventional monetary policy transmission during financial crises an empirical analysis summary this paper studies the effects of a conventional monetary policy shock in the usa during times of high financial stress the analysis is carried out by introducing a smooth transition factor model where the transition between states normal and high financial stress depends on a financial conditions index employing a quarterly dataset over the period 1970 q1 to 2008 q4 containing 108 us macroeconomic and financial time series i find that a monetary policy shock during periods of high financial stress has stronger and more persistent effects on macroeconomic variables such as output consumption and investment than it has during normal times differences in effects among the regimes seem to originate from nonlinearities in both components of the credit channel i e the balance sheet channel and the bank lending channel copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

dynamic deterrence theory economic theories of deterrence have primarily been built on static models a common and serious shortcoming of the existing dynamic deterrence models is the assumption of a twoperiod structure that ignores recidivism the aims of this paper are to formulate and solve a general dynamic deterrence model that incorporates recidivistic behaviour to explore its implications and to derive some testable predictions the analysis shows how the value and the intensity of engaging in illegal activity change over time highlights the weaknesses of twoperiod deterrence models and compares the deterrent effectiveness of increasing the likelihood of punishment versus the severity of punishment finally the recidivistic model provides a structural foundation for the widely used stochastic process models of crime in operations research and criminology

new index of coincident indicators a multivariate markov switching factor model approach abstract this paper extends the univariate markov switching unobserved component model to the multivariate markov switching factor model of coincident economic indicators an approximate ml method is developed to estimate the model the extracted markov switching factor may be interpreted as the coincident index and is comparable to the stock watson index which differs only by the markov switching component using four constituent series of the doc coincident index for the period january 1960 to june 1992 the proposed model generates recessionary and expansionary periods which are remarkably consistent with the nber chronology of the business cycles from the noisy monthly data this paper also finds that duration dependence does matter

forecasting the probability of us recessions a probit and dynamic factor modelling approach quantifying the probability of u s recessions has become increasingly important since august 2007 in a data rich environment this paper is the first to apply a probit model to common factors extracted from a large set of explanatory variables to model and forecast recession probability the results show the advantages of the proposed approach over many existing models simulated real time analysis captures all recessions since 1980 the proposed model also detects a significant jump in the next six month recession probability based on data up to november 2007 one year before the formal declaration of the recent recession by the nber quantifier la probabilite des recessions americaines est devenu de plus en plus important depuis aout 2007 dans un environnement ou l information foisonne ce texte est le premier a appliquer la technique probit a des facteurs communs extraits d un vaste ensemble de variables explicatives pour modeliser et predire la probabilite de recession les resultats montrent les avantages de l approche utilisee sur plusieurs des modeles en vogue une analyse de simulation en temps reel saisit toutes les recessions depuis 1980 le modele propose detecte aussi un saut significatif dans la probabilite de recession dans les prochains six mois a partir des donnees disponibles jusqu a novembre 2007 un an avant que le nber n annonce formellement le commencement de la recente recession

why do increased arrest rates appear to reduce crime deterrence incapacitation or measurement error this paper attempts to discriminate between deterrence incapacitation and measurement error as explanations for the negative empirical relationship between arrest rates and crime measurement error cannot explain the observed patterns in the data incapacitation suggests that an increase in the arrest rate for one crime will reduces all crime rates deterrence predicts that an increase in the arrest rate for one crime will lead to a rise in other crimes as criminals substitute away from the first crime empirically deterrence appears to be the more important factor particularly for property crimes jel k42

financial stress regimes and the macroeconomy some financial stress events lead to macroeconomic downturns while others appear to be isolated to financial markets we identify financial stress regimes using a model that explicitly links financial variables to macro economic outcomes the stress regimes are identified using an unbalanced panel of financial variables with an embedded method for variable selection our identified stress regimes are associated with corporate credit tightening and with nber recessions an exogenous deterioration in our financial conditions index has strong negative effects in economic activity and negative amplification effects on inflation in the stress regime these results are obtained with a novel factor augmented vector autoregressive model with smooth transition regimes fastvar