women s fertility market work and marital status a test of the new household economics with international data since its emergence from the pioneering efforts of becker 1960 and mincer 1962 the new household economics has inspired a wide range of theoretical and empirical models of demographic behaviour with particular emphasis on fertility female labour force participation and marriage a central principle of these models has been to assign critical roles to the values of men s and women s time in the decision making process in the present paper i adhere to that principle while seeking to contribute to the empirical literature in two important respects 1 the econometric model developed in this paper incorporates several improvements over prior models although women s fertility market work and marital status are closely interconnected their endogeneity has not been fully reflected in previous econometric work 2 in the present model all these demographic variables are endogenous and are subject to a common set of incomes and prices another distinctive feature represents an extension of the approach developed by butz and ward 1979 they used interaction termsmen s and women s earnings weighted by female labour force participation to explain variation in us birth rates here earnings are interacted with the endogenous demographic variables in all equations simulation experiments are used to gauge the total impacts of changes in men s and women s pay under alternative sets of initial conditions 2 for the first time so far as known cross national data are used in a direct test of the new household economics although the literature contains

marriage bequest and assortative matching in rural ethiopia abstract this article examines the determinants of human and physical capital at marriage using detailed data from rural ethiopia we find that assets brought to marriage are distributed in a highly unequal manner for first unions assets brought to marriage are positively associated with parents wealth indicating that a bequest motive affects assets at marriage parental wealth affects the inheritance of neither groom nor bride sibling competition from brothers affects grooms inheritance but sisters have no effect the marriage market is a major conduit for rural and gender inequality although avenues do exist for couples to accumulate wealth over their life cycle

labor supply of husbands and wives a simultaneous equations approach labor supply functions for married men and women are formulated as a dynamic simultaneous equations system which is estimated using panel data controlling for fixed individual effects allows marginal labor supply responses to be disentangled from permanent patterns in hours worked due to assortative mating the results suggest that the labor supply of husbands and wives without pre school children is not jointly determined in the short run while families with young children exhibit strong interactions in work hours and negative cross earnings effects neither the joint utility model of family labor supply nor an ad hoc traditional family model is supported by these results the data are for the united states and concern 381 couples from the denver income maintenance experiment excerpt

global educational expansion and socio economic development an assessment of findings from the social sciences summary among development agencies conventional wisdom holds that educational expansion improves economic welfare and health reduces inequalities and encourages democratic political systems we investigate the empirical foundations for these expectations in recent social science research consistent evidence indicates that health and demographic benefits result from educational expansion and suggests that education enhances but does not ensure individuals economic security however the impact of educational expansion on growth remains debated and decades of sociological studies offer evidence that educational expansion does not necessarily narrow social inequalities finally considerable controversy surrounds the implications of educational expansion for democratization reasonable forecasts of the consequences of further educational expansions need to consider the diverse social contexts in which these expansions will occur

policy watch the marriage penalty many government programs have implicit penalties or subsidies for marriage for example many couples pay higher income taxes when married than their combined tax liabilities as single filers while many other couples receive a marriage subsidy because their joint taxes fall with marriage likewise most low income couples are eligible for higher welfare benefits if they are separated rather than married this article discusses the marriage penalty with a particular focus on tax and transfer programs why does it exist who faces it to what extent does it affect marriage and labor market behavior what tradeoffs are involved in reducing it

how does women s life satisfaction respond to retirement a two stage analysis we quantify the adjustment of women s life satisfaction to retirement as a two stage process the transition to retirement leads to an immediate increase in women s life satisfaction after becoming retired their life satisfaction declines with the duration of retirement

intergenerational transfers in philippine rice villages gender differences in traditional inheritance customs abstract this paper examines education land and nonland asset transfers from parents to children in five rice villages in the philippines a model with family fixed effects explains transfers better than either individual heterogeneity or observed parent and child characteristics without family fixed effects families facing different land constraints exhibit significantly different patterns of educational investment in children in a subsample with completed inheritance daughters receive less education land and total inheritance but are compensated with nonland assets parents also exhibit preferential behavior towards children of the same gender daughters of better educated mothers receive more land nonland assets and total inheritance better educated fathers give land preferentially to sons but favor daughters in education

the short run demand for money a reconsideration the partial adjustment approach to the specification of the short run demand for money has dominated the literature for more than a decade there are three basic problems with this approach first the same lag structure is imposed on all variables and each independent variable enters only as a current value in contrast a rational individual would respond to different variables income interest rates prices with quite different lags second when the general price levelis subject to gradual adjustment hut can move quickly in response to supply shocks the influence of these supply shocks should enter with a negative sign third the estimated equation for real balances may not be a money demand equation at all but rather its coefficients may represent a shifting mixture of demand and supply responses the empirical work examines several alternative dynamic specifications including a generalized partial adjustment framework and the error correction model both of the latter specifications exhibit greater structural stability after 1973 than the standard partial adjustment specification and the generalized partial adjustment model also yields relatively small errors in post sample dynamic simulations shifts in coefficients as the sample period is extended after 1973 are consistent with the interpretation that the real balance equation no longer traces out structural demand parameters hut rather a mixture of demand and supply responses this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

job search duration and marginal tax rates an empirical inquiry in recent years the impact of taxation on work hours has generated a great deal of research effort however the effects of taxes on other dimensions of labor supply have been largely ignored the purpose of this paper is to investigate an important ignored issue the effects of tax rates on the duration of job search by those who are unemployed this issue is one which seems to us of considerable importance in resolving current debates over whether income tax changes will change unemployment to the extent that changing tax rates affect the benefits and costs of job search such changes may affect the amount of time workers spend searching for jobs which in turn will affect unemployment rates in order to estimate the effects of marginal tax rates on job search duration we employ a maximum likelihood approach which allows us to take into account the doubly censored nature of our sample this procedure remedies some of the econometric difficulties of earlier search duration studies at the same time it allows direct tests of the marginal contribution of various determinants to the length of search duration this latter advantage is particularly important since such direct tests are not available in the currently popular re employment hazard approach to analyzing search duration the paper proceeds as follows section ii provides a brief analysis of the theoretical implications of changing tax rates for job search duration we conclude that the relationship between job search duration and income tax rates is theoretically ambiguous the question must be addressed empirically in section iii we present our empirical methodology for addressing the question and compare it to approaches taken in prior search duration analyses our data and our empirical results are discussed in section iv section v contains our conclusions

wage distributions and spatial preferences in competitive job search and migration pickles a and rogerson p 1984 wage distributions and spatial preferences in competitive job search and migration reg studies 18 131 142 aggregate interstate migration data indicate that the majority of observed flows are from higher to lower wage states quite contrary to the predictions of human capital theory it is argued that a search theoretic framework may be used to complement and strengthen human capital theory such a framework may then include consideration of the flows of job information and aspects of job competition a model is proposed for application to longitudinal micro level data which overcomes a variety of theoretical and inferential problems and which remains within the bounds of empirical application

retirement effects on health in europe what are the health impacts of retirement as talk of raising retirement ages in pensions and social security schemes continues around the world it is important to know both the costs and benefits for the individual as well as the governments budgets in this paper we use the survey of health ageing and retirement in europe share dataset to address this question in a multi country setting we use country specific early and full retirement ages as instruments for retirement behavior these statutory retirement ages clearly induce retirement but are not related to an individual s health exploiting the discontinuities in retirement behavior across countries we find significant evidence that retirement has a health preserving effect on overall general health our estimates indicate that retirement leads to a 35 percent decrease in the probability of reporting to be in fair bad or very bad health and an almost one standard deviation improvement in the health index while the self reported health seems to be a temporary impact the health index indicates there are long lasting health differences

love and taxes and matching institutions we study a setting with search frictions in the marriage market and with incomplete contracting inside the family everyone prefers a partner that has high income and is a perfect emotional match but compromises must often be struck a high income earner may abstain from marrying a low income earner even though they would be a perfect match emotionally because the highincome earner may dislike the implicit income redistribution implied by the marriage redistributive income taxation may ease this problem income matching institutions that secure that people largely from the same income groups meet each other can substitute for redistribution so that optimal redistribution is reduced we also introduce a divorce option redistributive taxation is shown both to further and stabilize marriage

the estimation of models of labour market behaviour in this paper we view the labour market experience of individuals as a process of movement between the states of employment and unemployment we note that there are three main ways of sampling members of the labour force namely sampling the members of a specific state sampling the people entering or leaving a state and sampling the population regardless of state the joint distribution of observable and unobservable characteristics of individuals depends on the mode of sampling adopted we examine this dependence and its implications for the interpretation of estimates of models of labour market behaviour

healthier when retiring earlier evidence from france this paper contributes to the literature on the health retirement relationship by looking at the effect of retiring before legal age on health in later life in france to account for the endogeneit

fertility and the personal exemption implicit pronatalist policy in the united states the personal exemption in the us provides households with an income tax subsidy for each child this paper uses aggregate time series data for the us from 1913 to 1984 to estimate the impact of the tax value of the personal exemption on the aggregate birth rate the empirical results indicate that the personal exemption has a positive and significant impact on fertility and this result is robust to a variety of specifications the us therefore pursues an implicit pronatalist policy through the income tax and the empirical results indicate that the recent tax reform act of 1986 will on average increase this subsidy for fertility authors

estimating reservation wages of employed workers using a stochastic frontier according to search theory workers form reservation wages such that employment offers paying wages less than the reservation wage are rejected the first job offer paying a wage higher than the reservation wage is accepted and search is terminated though the reservation wage is clearly a matter of individual taste and unobservable a number of empirical articles have nevertheless appeared on the subject the present paper adds to this literature its novel aspects are that it uses data on employed workers rather than unemployed workers as is usually the case and that it applies a comparatively new econometric technique stochastic frontier estimation to the problem of estimating reservation wages our interests in this paper are twofold first the paper provides estimates of worker reservation wages utilizing the stochastic frontier regression technique second we use these estimates to test various hypotheses regarding the response of reservation wages to factors that search theory suggests are important in the determination of reservation wages the remainder of the paper is organized as follows section ii discusses the previous empirical literature on the reservation wage section iii sketches the theory and estimation techniques we use section iv lays out a framework for assessing the validity of the approach used here finally section v presents the empirical results

female first marriage in east and southeast asia a kiefer neumann model abstract many studies have shown that schooling levels of husband and wife are important determinants of household behavior in developing countries in this article we ask how the schooling levels of husband and wife come to be associated with each other through the marriage market the kiefer neumann model of labor market search is adapted to marital search the aim being to explain both the positive sorting on education levels for spouses and the positive relationship between female schooling and age at first marriage world fertility survey data for indonesia korea and malaysia are employed in the analyses

for love or money the impact of income taxes on marriage higher sometimes lower than their combined single income tax obligations in this paper we explore the impact of the federal individual income tax as well as other economic and demograplhic variables on the marriage decisionis of individuals using longitudinal data from the panel study on income dynamics for the period 1968 92 we estimate a discrete time hazard model of the time to first marriage we find that the probability of marriage is significantly affected by a range of economic and demographic variables importantly we find that an increase in total income taxes paid by married versus single women has a negative effect on the likelihood of marriage and that the change in the marginal tax rate is also a significant determinant of marriage in some cases in contrast the tax effects are rarely significant in determining marriage probabilities among men although there are some differential responses by race in general the impacts of the income tax variables even when statistically significant are small

program interventions intrahousehold distribution and the welfare of individuals modelling household behavior abstract in this essay the implications for the intrahousehold distribution of resources derived from economic models of household behavior that treat the household as maximizing a single welfare function are reviewed particular attention is paid to the within family allocation of time and food and to the effects of these resources on the schooling earnings and health status of individuals as they are affected by direct food intervention and female employment schemes and price altering policies empirical applications are provided from data sets from india indonesia and the philippines to illustrate the power and limitations of such models for illuminating household interventions and for placing restrictions on data

comment on f e kydland and e c prescott the econometrics of the general equilibrium approach to business cycles real business cycle theory is cast in a competitive general equilibrium setting with infinitely lived households and a propagation mechanism allowing real shocks to produce business cycle fluctuations the models show that substantial fluctuations can be generated by real technology shocks in a competitive framework and thus reflect a pareto efficient response to changes in intertemporal possibilities for substitution the central point of this finding is that fluctuations do not necessarily reflect inefficiencies as is often implicitly implied by in particular the keynesian literature this is an observation which most people would accept although there are substantial reservations concerning the assumptions underlying the models and thus the importance of this observation however a new empirical approach known as calibration has also come to be associated with real business cycle models authors belonging to this branch of the literature interpret the results of such calibrations as empirical justification for their theories prescott 1986 p 38 goes as far as to conclude that theory predicts what is observed indeed if the economy did not display the business cycle phenomena there would be a puzzle although it is uncontroversial to regard calibrations previously known as simulations as a useful way of illustrating properties of theoretical models having a complexity which precludes an analytical solution it is less obvious that calibration can be seen as a test of a theory actually protagonists of real business cycle theories tend to go even further by suggesting that this empirical methodology is a logical consequence of the general equilibrium approach this raises the question does calibration teach us something about the model or about reality

schooling search and spouse selection testing economic theories of marriage and household behavior the implications of the economic theories of marriage and of household fertility behavior are tested in a framework in which educational investment marital search and marital matches are responsive to marriage market conditions and the personal traits of individual agents some of which are unobserved by the econometrician implications are also derived and tested for the effects of longevity attractiveness preferences and labor and marriage market conditions on schooling marriage age and spouse choice the empirical results indicate that inattention to heterogeneity and martial selection leads to a false rejection of the economic theory of marriage but to a false acceptance of the value of time fertility hypothesis

what explains the difference in the effect of retirement on health evidence from global aging data this paper analyzes the reasons for differences in the effect of retirement on health estimated results in previous studies we investigate these differences by focusing on the analysis methods used by these studies using various health indexes numerous researchers have examined the effects of retirement on health however there are no unified views on the impact of retirement on various health indexes consequently we show that the choice of analysis method is one of the key factors in explaining why the estimated results of the effect of retirement on health differ moreover we re estimate the effect of retirement on health by using a fixed analysis method controlling for individual heterogeneity and endogeneity of the retirement behavior we analyze the effect of retirement on health parameters such as cognitive function self report of health activities of daily living adl depression and body mass index in eight countries we find that the effects of retirement on self report of health depression and adl are positive in many of these countries

does retirement age impact mortality the relationship between retirement and mortality is studied with a unique administrative data set covering the full population of norway a series of retirement policy changes in norway reduced the retirement age for a group of workers but not for others difference in differences estimation based on monthly birth cohorts and treatment group status show that the early retirement programme significantly reduced the retirement age this holds true also when we account for programme substitution for example into the disability pension instrumental variables estimation results show no effect on mortality of retirement age neither do estimation results from a hazard rate model

german income taxation and the timing of marriage i investigate how the german income tax code affects the timing of marriages the german income tax code allows married couples to benefit from full income splitting relative to unmarried couples

an econometric analysis of reservation wages this paper describes an analysis of survey data on unemployed people who reported their asking wage and the wage they expected to earn we show that if agents behavior is described by the standard optimal job search model one can use these data to deduce structural parameters rather than estimate them and we report our deductions from two surveys 1 of british unemployed people

taxes and marriage a two sided search analysis this article analyzes the effects of differential tax treatment of married and single individuals in the united states on marriage formation and composition divorce and labor supply we develop a marriage market model with search frictions and heterogeneous agents that is sufficiently rich to capture key elements of the problem under consideration we then calibrate the model and use it to evaluate the quantitative effects of several tax reforms aimed at making the tax law neutral with respect to marital status we find that these reforms i systematically increase the labor supply of married females with changes ranging from 0 3 to 10 1 percent ii have substantial effects on the correlation of spouses incomes which changes from 0 2 to values between 0 185 and 0 334 iii can lead to either an increase or decrease in the fraction of people married with changes that range from 0 6 to 2 4 percent

the impact of conditional cash transfers on marriage and divorce abstracta growing number of less developed countries have introduced conditional cash transfer programs in which funds are targeted to women economic models of the family suggest that these transfer programs may lead to marital turnover among program beneficiaries data from the experimental evaluation of the progresa program in mexico is used to provide new evidence on the short run impacts of targeted transfers on couples union dissolution and individuals new union formation decisions we find that although the overall share of women in union does not change as a result of the program marital turnover increases intact families eligible for the transfers experienced a modest 0 32 percentage points increase in separation rates with most of the effect concentrated among young and relatively educated women households in contrast young single women with low educational attainment levels experienced a substantial increase in new union formation rates the marital transition patterns are consistent

why does spousal education matter for earnings assortative mating and cross productivity spousal education is correlated with earnings for two reasons cross productivity between couples and assortative mating this article empirically disentangles the two effects by using chinese twins data we have two innovations using twins data to control for the unobserved mating effect in our estimations and estimating both current and wedding time earnings equations we find that both crossproductivity and mating are important in explaining the current earnings although the mating effect exists for both husbands and wives the cross productivity effect mainly runs from chinese husbands to wives our findings shed light on the theories of human capital marriage and the family

educational choice families and young people s earnings this paper presents two optimizing models of educational choice discusses issues of identification estimates earnings equations in the context of these models and presents conditions under which we can test one against the other the estimates indicate that education is endogenous for young people s earnings creating a downward bias in estimated returns from education that assume exogeneity identification and estimation relies on family background information from a special sample from the british household panel study 1991 95 which matches mothers and their young adult children our estimates favor a family model over an individual model and they suggest that parents allocate resources to education to compensate for differences in their children s earnings endowments

earnings unemployment and the allocation of time over time since an individual s labour market history can be described by a markov chain in state space it is possible to calculate the steady states it is natural to interpret the steady state proportion in unemployment for a group of identical workers as the natural rate of unemployment for this group i e it is the expected proportion that would be employed if the environment were to remain constant it is shown how the natural rate of unemployment is different for different groups the model is estimated using data from a large u s income maintenance experiment the predictions of the model with some exceptions bear up well to confrontation by data the empirical findings also accord well with existing evidence on cross section studies of labour supply we find that labour force participation rates implied by the estimated models are positively related to earnings for all age sex and race groups as expected we demonstrate that the elasticities of the unemployment rates for all groups with respect to expected wage rates are negative and large in absolute value in the case of adults while the role of the wage in allocation of time is not novel the existing neoclassical labour literature uses static labour supply models to interpret participation rate studies

earnings expectations revisions and realizations during the spring and the fall of 1993 respondents to a national household survey were asked to report expectations of spring 1994 weekly earnings elicited in the form of subjective probabilities these data are potentially much more informative than are typical reports of economic expectations subjective probability distributions of future weekly earnings are estimated for each respondent based on his or her reports of a series of subjective probabilities this paper analyzes the cross sectional variation in expectations revisions of expectations between the spring and the fall of 1993 and the relationship between 1993 expectations and the distribution of spring 1994 earnings realizations generally positive findings on the validity of the data bode well for the prospects of eliciting expectations in future surveys

dowry and intrahousehold bargaining evidence from china this paper analyzes the relationship between a woman s intrahousehold bargaining position and her welfare within marriage using household data from rural china simultaneity problems are overcome by using dowry to proxy for bargaining position omitted variable bias is addressed by using grain shocks in the year preceding marriage as an instrument for dowry instrumented dowry positively impacts numerous measures of a wife s welfare including household purchases the time allocation of household members and the woman s satisfaction with life offering strong evidence in support of collective models of the household

taxes and transfers their effects on the decision to end a marriage abstract the transfer system typically has large marriage disincentives while the income tax system is likely to subsidize marriage for many low income families in other words the tax system may offset an increase in transfer benefits associated with marital separation the interaction of the transfer system with the income tax system has largely been overlooked the income tax system has become more relevant for low income families with the recent expansion of the earned income tax credit which filers may be eligible for even if their tax liability is zero this paper uses family level measures of the change in transfer benefits and tax liability associated with a change in family structure to consider the effect of these financial incentives on separation decisions

will you civil union me although the tax system is not marriage neutral in many countries it has been found to be only slightly significant in determining marriage decisions buffeteau and echevin 2003 alm and whittington 1995 this paper tests whether the tax system can alter the decision to contract a civil union which is less binding than a marital contract in 1999 france introduced civil union pacs as an alternative legal union to marriage i assess the impact of taxation on the decision to contract a pacs using a difference in differences evaluation of the 2005 income tax reform for newly pacsed couples as the control group is contaminated by the reform i propose an original estimation method based on a difference in differences in differences setting to estimate bounds to the impact of the reform my results find a positive and increasing impact of taxation on pacs rates but also a change in the timing of pacs unions suggesting that taxation alters the decision to contract a pacs in addition i find a slightly significant impact of taxation on the decision to terminate a pacs

money and credit confused an appraisal of economic doctrine and federal reserve procedure it is a serious error to suppose that if the monetary authorities are to alter the actual quantity of money people must first be persuaded through interest rate movements to alter the quantity of money they wish to hold nevertheless the error in one guise or another pervades the literature on monetary policy as a result of the fed s willingness to prevent or moderate a demand induced movement in the interest rate write lombra and kaufman 16 1156 in this very journal shifts in money demand cause shifts in the same direction in reserve supply and therefore money supply econometrically determined money supply functions are thus not what they

a search model applied to the transition from education to work this paper presents the specification and estimation of a search model applied to the transition from education to work the theoretical search model includes the possibility of variable search intensity the empirical model with a reservation wage relation is estimated using maximum likelihood methods a data set containing information on new law graduates is used for the estimation finally the model is estimated for two separate subperiods to investigate the effects of market changes

mental retirement and schooling we assess the validity of differences in eligibility ages for early and old age pension benefits as instruments for estimating the effect of retirement on cognitive functioning because differences in eligibility ages across country and gender are correlated with differences in years of schooling which affect cognitive functioning at old ages they are invalid as instruments without controlling for schooling we show by means of simulation and a replication study that unless the model incorporates schooling the estimated effect of retirement is negatively biased this explains a large part of the mental retirement effects which have recently been found

ageing cognitive abilities and retirement we investigate the relationship between ageing cognitive abilities and retirement using the survey on health ageing and retirement in europe share a household panel that offers the possibility of comparing several european countries using nationally representative samples of the population aged 50 the human capital framework suggests that retirement may cause an increase in cognitive decline since after retirement individuals lose the market incentive to invest in cognitive repair activities our empirical results based on an instrumental variable strategy to deal with the potential endogeneity of retirement confirm this key prediction they also indicate that education plays a fundamental role in explaining heterogeneity in the level of cognitive abilities

the role of money supply shocks in the short run demand for money abstract previous money demand models are either inconsistent with contemporaneous adjustment of the price level to expected changes in the nominal money supply or imply implausible interest rate fluctuations in response to innovations in nominal money we propose a shock absorber money demand model in which money supply shocks affect the synchronization of asset transactions and so engender a temporary increase or decrease in desired money holdings expected changes do not engender such fluctuations in real money inventories in simultaneous estimates for eight industrial countries the shock absorber model proved empirically superior

anti poverty policy for families in the next century from welfare to work and worries this paper reveals that recent changes in social policy have included both sharp cutbacks in welfare for non working families and dramatic increases in supports for low income working families it explores the reasons for these changes and documents how they have radically changed work incentives for some persons notable single mothers the result has been a large increase in work by low wage single parents the paper concludes by examining several potential dangers of this new direction and explores the challenges that remain for the next century

true and spurious duration dependence the identifiability of the proportional hazard model lancaster and nickell 1980 have argued that in the proportional hazard model the effects of time dependence true duration dependence and unobserved sample heterogeneity spurious duration dependence cannot be distinguished we show that both effects can be distinguished if the model allows for observed explanatory variables in the hazard we also discuss the application of our result to practical situations

reservation wage analysis of unemployed youths in australia this paper focuses on the analysis and structural estimation of the reservation wage function from a job search model using modified 2sls and maximum likelihood procedures with selectivity bias adj

accounting for age in marital search decisions spouse quality measured by educational attainment varies significantly with the age at which an individual marries peaking in the mid twenties then declining through the early forties interestingly this decline is much sharper for women than men meaning women increasingly marry less educated men as they age moreover quality has worsened for educated women over several decades while it has improved for men using a non stationary sequential search model we identify and quantify the search frictions that generate these age dependent marriage outcomes we find that single life utility is typically the dominant friction though college women in the 1950 and 1970 cohorts are affected even more by deteriorating suitor quality regardless of educational status individual choice as opposed to pure luck is pivotal in explaining marriage market outcomes earlier in life

unemployment benefits and unemployment rates revisited a general equilibrium job search model the impact of unemployment insurance systems on employment behaviour and its subsequent repercussions upon the unemployment rates is the subject of this paper generally unemployment can be viewed as the result of factors which are either external or internal to the labour market the external factors such as the level of aggregate product demand and its impact on the size of the labour market have been the chief concern of many studies of unemployment by contrast the possible impact of the internal structure of the labour market on its own size that is the employment impact of the labour turnover process has been a relatively neglected area of study here we concentrate mainly on the impact of the unemployment insurance system on search behaviour and its subsequent impact on the level of unemployment the type of unemployment we are concerned with is that affected by the duration of unemployed search and the expected duration of the resulting employment contracts rather than the unemployment generated by lack of product demand a common theoretical result in the literature is that higher unemployment insurance payments along with other factors affecting search behaviour may make unemployment less burdensome consequently reducing the incentive of the unemployed to take up employment an observable outcome of such phenomena can be that an increase in the average duration of unemployment spells follows a rise in the unemployment

a clarification of the excess demand for or excess supply of money i introduction this article focuses on many economists neglect and even denial of monetary disequilibrium i am convinced that one of the most misunderstood and neglected concepts in all of economics is the notion that money may indeed be in excess supply or excess demand for example mccallum 1989 84 argues since it does not take long to alter the amount of currency that one holds either by purchasing interest bearing bonds or consumption goods it is reasonable to assume that actual holdings correspond very closely to desired demanded holdings for each household thus in the aggregate we have m sup d m sup s that is the quantity of money demanded equals the quantity supplied mccallum then goes on to argue that given the above equality there should be no loss in content if we simply use the symbol mathematical expression omitted to denote both m sup d and m sup s accordingly mccallum assumes money demand and money supply coincide although his book is about monetary theory mccallum completely overlooks the importance of monetary disequilibrium dornbusch and fischer 1990 137 also commit this oversight when they argue for many purposes it is useful to restrict the dynamics by the reasonable assumption that the money market adjusts very quickly and the goods market adjusts relatively slowly since the money market can adjust merely through the buying and selling of bonds the interest rate adjusts rapidly and the money market effectively is always in equilibrium such an assumption implies that we are always on the lm curve any departure from the equilibrium in the money market is almost instantaneously eliminated by an appropriate change in the interest rate in disequilibrium we therefore move along the lm curve if one is going to discuss the dynamics of macroeconomic adjustment then surely one should not disregard monetary disequilibrium similarly other economists as in serfaty 1979 kaldor 1982 and moore 1988 argue that money can never be in excess supply much of what this article says has been written elsewhere while this repetition may be tedious to some only by varied iteration can alien conceptions be forced on reluctant minds 1 ii monetary disequilibrium by money is meant narrow money the medium of exchange that is currency plus demand deposits some economists seem to imply that money demand and money supply are almost conceptually the same since they are always equal for example kohn 1991 678 argues since all of the money in existence must be held by someone the aggregate demand for money must equal the total amount in existence one of the critical errors in such assertions is the assumption that newly accepted cash balances are fully demanded because of money s role as a medium of exchange people are always willing to accept newly created money however that does not mean that they are actually demanding these additions to their money holdings rather they may try to dispose of these acquired but excess money balances with appropriate speed yeager 1968 51 52 discusses this crucial distinction for a closed economy a person accepts money not necessarily because he chooses to continue holding it but precisely because it is the routine intermediary between his sales and his purchases or investments and because he knows he can get rid of it whenever he wants people s initial unwillingness to hold all newly created actual money would not keep them from accepting it and would not prevent its creation yeager 1968 50 51 further elaborates on the process by which these excess money balances eventually become desired a holder of unwanted money exchanges it directly for whatever he does want without first cashing it in for something else nothing is more ultimate than money instead of going out of existence unwanted money gets passed around until it ceases to be unwanted

hard to get the scarcity of women and the competition for high income men in urban china reports of the difficulties of elite women in finding suitable mates have been increasing despite the growing availability and value of men in china we rationalize this leftover women phenomenon within the directed competitive search framework which uniquely allows for equilibrium crowding out within this framework we show that the leftover women phenomenon can be the result of women s aversion to men who have a lower income than themselves hereafter alm and the long predicted complementarity between women s non market traits in particular beauty and male earnings for high income h women even when high income h men are more plentiful and richer the direct effect of the greater number of desirable men can be overwhelmed by the indirect effect of competitive entry by low income l women particularly the beautiful we test for these competitive search effects using online dating field experimental census and household survey data consistent with the competitive entry of l women when sex ratio and h men s income increase the search intensity of beautiful l women for h men increases in response to this competitive entry plain h women who are constrained by their alm to search predominantly for h men also increase the search intensity however only their marriage probability decreases our evidence is consistent with intra female competitive search for spouses who can cover the labor market opportunity cost of marriage and childbirth which increases with a woman s income

estimating incentive and welfare effects of nonstationary unemployment benefits the distribution of unemployment duration in our equilibrium matching model with spell dependent unemployment benefits displays time varying exit rates building on semi markov processes we translate these rates into an expression for the aggregate unemployment rate structural estimation using german microdata allows us to discuss the effects of an unemployment benefit reform hartz iv the reform reduced unemployment by less than 0 1 percentage points contrary to general beliefs the net wage for most skill and regional groups increased taking the insurance effect of unemployment benefits into account however the reform is welfare reducing for 76 of workers

accounting for the gender gap in college attainment i introduction one striking phenomenon in the u s labor market is the reversal of the gender gap in college attainment in 1980 57 of young men aged 25 34 compared with 46 of young women had some college education by age 34 by 1996 however female college attainment had reached 64 5 percentage points higher than that of the males in the same cohort in tact females overtook males in college attainment in 1987 and have led ever since a large body of empirical research emphasizes the role of the earnings premium as a key explanatory variable for the determination of education outcomes see e g becket 1967 mincer 1974 willis and rosen 1979 in addition an extensive literature shows that family background is an important determinant of the schooling decision see among others cameron and heckman 1998 2001 eckstein and wolpin 1999 ge 2008 kane 1994 recently several papers have argued empirically and theoretically that expected marriage is important in determining the schooling decision e g chiappori iyigun and weiss 2006 ge 2008 iyigun and walsh 2007 on the basis of this literature we construct a life cycle model that includes potential costs and benefits from the labor market and marriage market which determine individual college decisions in our model individuals with differing learning abilities first decide whether or not to enter college then they might get married and have children parents are altruistic and value their children s learning ability which increases with the parents education forward looking individuals take into account the impact of their own schooling on their children s learning ability other factors that affect an individual s decision on whether to pursue higher education include the expected direct labor market returns to college over one s lifetime the expected marriage market returns to college and the financial and effort costs of attending college these costs and benefits can differ by gender we calculate from panel study of income dynamics psid and current population survey cps parents education distributions the life cycle profiles of single marriage and divorce probabilities by education and the lifecycle profiles of earnings by education and marital status as exogenous inputs of the model we observe that the number of college educated parents increases over time in the marriage market a substantial increase of single probabilities and an increase of divorce probabilities has occurred for both genders regardless of college attainment status lifetime earnings by cohort are decreasing slowly for males of all marital statuses especially for married males lifetime earnings for married and divorced females are increasing gradually whereas those for single females are decreasing slightly to formally endogenize those changes is beyond the scope of our paper we instead focus on the mechanism in which under perfect foresight these changes affect education decisions we estimate the parameters of the model by matching data on college attainment by gender from the psid we present evidence on how well the model fits the data we then use the parameter estimates to simulate counterfactual experiments which break down the sources of changes in college attainment into the effects of changes in relative earnings changes in parental education and changes in the marriage market what accounts for the increase in college attainment over the past few decades we find that the increasing gap in earnings between college and high school graduates has important effects on the increase in college attainment for both genders when earnings are fixed at 1946 cohort levels attainment rates in 1996 drop by 15 5 and 14 2 percentage points for males and females respectively we also emphasize the importance of intergenerational persistence in schooling on the increase in college attainment for both genders

structural estimation of marriage models a structural approach is used to examine who matches with whom a two sided matching model that allows for marital sorting in response to marriage market flexibility and agents preferences is utilized estimation is based on imbedding the numerical solution of a matching model within a maximum likelihood procedure results indicate that wage is more desirable than education in predicting marriageability for white men education is more desirable for black men the marriage market for white men is more flexible both marriage market flexibility and the chance of being classified correctly using agents wage and education decrease with age for white men

search models and applied labor economics individual effects in a nonlinear model explicit treatment of heterogeneity in the empirical job search model this paper extends the empirical version of a job search model to permit heterogeneity in the location of wage offer distributions population variance in wage offers is decomposed into variance due to heterogeneity and variance facing each individual heterogeneity is found to be an important source of offer variance in the population the amount of pure wage offer dispersion facing individuals is found to contribute little to population variance

cross border marriage costs and marriage behavior theory and evidence this article analyzes cross border marriages between mainland china and hong kong hk we examine the effects of a reduction in cross border marriage costs following an increase in marriage migration quotas and the handover of hk to china we find that cross border marriages mainly involve men from the low tail of the hk attribute distribution we also find that hk women s position in the marriage market and within households deteriorated following the reduction in cross border marriage costs and that their disadvantaged position exerts an incentive effect on their labor market behavior these outcomes are consistent with our matching model

testing the neoclassical model of family labor supply and fertility the mcelroy horney nash bargaining model of family demand behavior relaxes the restriction that nonearned income of husband and wife has the identical effect on family labor supply and commodity demands this restriction of the neoclassical model offamily behavior is tested for the determination of husband and wife labor supply andfertility based on the 1981 socioeconomic survey of thailand the neoclassical restriction is rejected for female labor supply andfertility another unexplored limitation offamily demand studies due to the sample self selection of intact marriages is empirically treated through alternative estimation strategies in this case a more sharply focused theory of marital behavior is needed to identify family demand models

a micro econometric analysis of vacation behaviour we present a micro econometric limited dependent variable model which simultaneously explains the decision whether to go on vacation or not the choice of destination and the decision on the level of the vacation expenditures the model has been estimated on the basis of a cross section of dutch households we find a striking difference in income elasticity between domestic vacations and vacations abroad and a large impact of owning certain durables such as a boat on the choice of destination to illustrate the potential of the model some simulations are performed

college choice and wages estimates using data on female twins the authors assess the impact of college quality on women s earnings and the influence of family and individual endowments on college choice using new data from a survey of identical and nonidentical twins born in minnesota the estimates reject models that ignore school choice the statistically preferred estimates suggest that ph d granting private universities with well paid senior faculty and smaller enrollments produce students who have significantly higher earnings later in life both the quantity of schooling and the quality of schooling resources are allocated to higher endowed individuals which exacerbates preexisting inequality in human capital and biases conventional estimates of school quality effects copyright 1996 by mit press

dowry and wife s welfare a theotrical and empirical analysis becker attributes the existence of marital transfers to inflexibility in the division of joint product within the marriage if that were the only reason we would not have observed the coexistence of dowries and bride prices this paper offers an alternative analysis while becker s interpretation is retained for bride prices a dowry is now represented as a premortem bequest by altruistic parents for a daughter it not only increases the wealth of the new conjugal household but also enhances the bargaining power of the bride in the allocation of the output within the household thereby safeguarding here welfare using micro data from taiwan we found that a dowry improves the bride s welfare whereas a bride price has no effect these empirical results support the theoretical predictions of the model

the information content of wage and duration data in a search model estimates of the parameters of the wage offer density and the offer arrival process of a simple search model are presented in this paper the optimality constraint from the search model is treated as a restriction and its effect on parameter estimates is analysed estimates from wage data alone and estimates from duration data alone can be interpreted as unrestricted estimates while estimates obtained from wage and duration data together can be interpreted as restricted estimates this interpretation allows a test of the optimality constraint which is rejected by the data used estimates reveal a substantial difference in the information contained in wages and the information contained in durations but benefit elasticities are consistent with findings from previous studies

women s college decisions how much does marriage matter this article investigates the sequential college attendance decision of young women and quantifies the effect of marriage expectations on their decision to attend and graduate from college a dynamic choice model of college attendance labor supply and marriage is formulated and structurally estimated using panel data from the nlsy79 the model is used to simulate the effects of no marriage benefits and finds that the predicted college enrollment rate will drop from 58 0 to 50 5 using the estimated model the college attendance behavior for a younger cohort from the nlsy97 is predicted and used to validate the behavioral model

til death or taxes do us part the effect of income taxation on divorce there is now much empirical evidence that economic incentives affect the divorce decision via their impact on the flow of benefits of divorced vs married individuals however the effect of the individual income tax on divorce has been neglected in this work the income tax in the us is structured so that tax liability often changes with marriage some couples incur a marriage penalty in the form of higher taxes when they marry while others receive a marriage subsidy because their tax burden falls with marriage in this paper the authors examine the impact of the individual income tax on the likelihood of divorce in the us using data from the panel study on income dynamics they estimate a discrete time hazard model of the probability of divorce from the first marriage to test the hypothesis that the probability of divorce rises with the marriage penalty they also examine the role of other economic factors in the divorce decision the authors find that individuals respond to tax incentives in their decision to divorce although these responses are typically small and differ for men and women authors

why governments should invest more to educate girls abstract women and men often receive the same percentage increase in their wage rates with advances in schooling because these returns decline with more schooling the marginal returns for women will tend to exceed those for men especially in countries where women are much less educated the health and schooling of children are more closely related to their mother s education than father s more educated women work more hours in the market labor force broadening the tax base and thereby potentially reducing tax distortions these three conditions it is argued justify the disproportionate allocation of public expenditures toward women s education

endowments and the allocation of schooling in the family and in the marriage market the twins experiment 03 we show how comparisons between the within twin correlations of human capital outcomes across identical and nonidentical twins can be used to identify the variability in the individual specific component of endowments and the responsiveness of schooling to individual specific endowments in the family and in the marriage market even when schooling is measured with error estimates from two twins samples indicate that 27 42 percent of the variance in log earnings obesity is due to variability in individual specific endowments allocations of schooling reinforce specific endowments and individual specific earnings endowments of men and their wives schooling are negatively associated

income taxes and the timing of marital decisions abstract in this paper we estimate the impact of the federal individual income tax on the timing of marital decisions anecdotal evidence suggests that the tax penalty often associated with marriage contributes to the decision of when to marry using household data from the panel study on income dynamics we estimate various models of the probability of delaying marriage as a function of the change in tax burden caused by marriage as well as several other variables we find that there is a significant positive relationship between the marriage penalty in a year and the probability of delaying marriage until the following year the magnitude of the effect however is small

saying i don t the effect of the affordable care act young adult provision on marriage this paper investigates the effect of the affordable care act young adult provision on the propensity to marry the young adult provision expanded options for obtaining insurance coverage outside of marriage young adults affected by the provision might have less incentive to marry since one avenue for obtaining health insurance coverage is through marriage this paper examines this question by applying difference in differences type methods using the 2008 2013 american community survey results suggest that the provision is associated with decreases in the likelihood of marrying cohabitation and spousal health insurance coverage and an increase in the probability of divorce

the effect of male wage inequality on female age at first marriage a model in which women search for husbands characterized by their wages predicts increasing within group male wage inequality raises the expected value of continued marital search and so lowers female marriage propensities using 1970 1980 and 1990 census data i test this hypothesis within geographically racially and educationally defined marriage markets the estimates suggest rising male wage inequality accounted for 7 to 18 of the decline in the propensity to marry between 1970 and 1990 for white women and more educated black women growing wage inequality appears to have had little effect on the marriage behavior of less educated black women

marriage divorce and social safety net policy i study the effects of the earned income tax credit eitc and welfare reforms of the 1990s on flows into and out of marriage i use test scores to predict who is most likely to be affected by the policy changes and employ a flexible functional form to estimate heterogeneous effects i find that lower earning married women are more likely to divorce as the eitc expands but i find no effect of eitc generosity on marriage i find little effect of welfare generosity on marriage or divorce flows for any group my results suggest that there are nonsymmetric responses to policy on flows into and out of marriages

income taxes and the marriage decision economic incentives have been found to play an important role in the marriage decision in developed and developing countries however the way in which the income tax treatment of the family affects these incentives has been routinely ignored this paper uses time series data for the united states from 1947 to 1988 to estimate the impact of economic factors including for the first time the tax consequences of marriage on the aggregate marriage rate the estimation results indicate that economic factors like income female wages and education play an important and statistically significant role in the marriage decision in particular the tax consequences of marriage clearly affect the marriage decision when income taxes increase with marriage the aggregate marriage rate declines however the magnitude of this impact is quite small this result suggests that some individuals respond to tax incentives in their marriage choices but that for many individuals taxes do not affect these decisions

an empirical study of long term unemployment in australia this paper has two parts the first part concentrates on modeling transitions out of unemployment using aggregated gross flow data models are estimated using monthly transition probabilities for march april 1984 this analysis produces evidence consistent with negative duration dependence but sheds no light on the role of macroeconomic factors the second part focuses on this issue a time series analysis of the proportion of long term unemployment using data for four age and sex groups provides evidence that a proportionately greater increase in long term unemployment in australia in the 1970s has been associated with reduction in job availability and the effect of certain supply shocks

the effect of women s schooling on fertility abstract this study investigates the effect of women s schooling on fertility in the united states particular attention is given to the issue of whether women s schooling can be legitimately treated as an exogenous determinant of fertility

do parents favor boys in an optimizing model of parental allocation systematic differences in human capital investments betwen the sexes may originate in at least 3 ways 1 parents may respond to expected gender wage differentials 2 parents may respond to systematic differences by gender in the price of human capital investments 3 parental preferences may favor girls or boys in the sense that they value identical outcomes at the same cost more highly for one sex than for the other this paper analyzes the role of parental preferences in general and unequal concern in particular in the allocation of human capital investments among children the authors generalize their earlier model of the human capital investments among children to incorporate the possibility that the returns to such investments may include not only the childs own ecpected earnings but also the expected earnings of his or her spouse thus the model assumes that parents may value returns that accrue trough the marriage market as well as through education the relevant returns to education may include marrying a spouse with higher expected earnings the empirical analysis indicates that gender wage differentials like endowment differentials are mildly reinforced by the parental allocation of human capital investments marriage market outcomes are significant determinants of the allocation of human capital investments among children there is no evidence that parental preferences favor boys this study shows that parental preferences either exhibit equal concern or slightly favor gils

educational homogamy how much is opportunities individuals match on length and type of education we find that around half of the systematic sorting on education is explained by the tendency of individuals to marry someone who went to the same educational institution or to an institution near them this may be due to low search frictions or selection of people with the same preferences into the same institutions the residual half of the systematic sorting on education is a direct effect of partners education which is potentially explained by complementarities in household production in couples with same education

unemployment benefit duration and incentives in britain how robust is the evidence abstract recent years have seen considerable advances in the econometric treatment of micro data in models of unemployment duration this paper examines the evidence from such models concerning the effects of unemployment benefits on incentives to work in britain widely accepted results of a small but significant benefit effect are reproduced using a sample of 1 231 unemployed men however these results are only found when benefit receipt is assumed to follow a hypothetical pattern which is shown to be unrealistic and over generous when more realistic calculations of benefits are used no benefit effect is found the paper also argues that search theory is of little help in determining the choice between competing functional forms and explanatory variables results concerning benefits are shown to be sensitive to the latter