resolving new keynesian anomalies with wealth in the utility function at the zero lower bound the new keynesian model predicts that output and inflation collapse to implausibly low levels and that government spending and forward guidance have implausibly large effects to resolve these anomalies we introduce wealth into the utility function the justification is that wealth is a marker of social status and people value status since people partly save to accrue social status the euler equation is modified as a result when the marginal utility of wealth is sufficiently large the dynamical system representing the zero lower bound equilibrium transforms from a saddle to a source which resolves all the anomalies

the empirical content of the roy model this paper clarifies and extends the classical roy model of self selection and earnings inequality the original roy model based on the assumption that log skills are normally distributed is shown to imply that pursuit of comparative advantage in a free market reduces earnings inequality compared to the earnings distribution that would result if workers were randomly assigned to sectors aggregate log earnings are right skewed even if one sectoral distribution is left skewed most major implications of the log normal roy model survive if differences in skills are log concave however few implications of the model survive if skills are generated from more general distributions we consider the identifiability of the roy model from data on earnings distributions the normal theory version is identifiable without regressors or exclusion restrictions sectoral distributions can be identified knowing only the aggregate earnings distribution for general skill distributions the model is not identified and has no empirical content with sufficient price variation the model can be identified from multimarket data cross sectional variation in regressors can substitute for price variation in restoring empirical content to the roy model

the forward fiscal guidance puzzle and a resolution abstract the forward fiscal guidance puzzle pertains to new keynesian models when monetary policy is temporarily caught in a liquidity trap 1 expected future fiscal shocks have an unbelievably large effect on current inflation and 2 the effect on current inflation is larger the further out is the shock expected to occur we illustrate the problem analytically then we use blue chip inflation forecasts to argue that the effects on inflation expectations should be small and finally we analyze two potential resolutions to the puzzle the first is the fiscal theory of the price level in a calibrated model with price inertia investment and long term debt we show that the fiscal theory resolves the second aspect of the puzzle but certainly not the first in our preferred resolution we return to a ricardian fiscal policy and we assume that the probability of a return to the taylor rule depends on the rate of inflation the model s predictions are in line with the evidence from the blue chip forecasts this article is part of a special issue entitled fiscal and monetary policies

the quantitative analytics of the basic neomonetarist model this paper constructs a dynamic macroeconomic model with less than perfect price flexibility which has a classical side consistent with real business cycle theory augmented by investment adjustment costs increasing returns to scale and a new flexible formalization of imperfect competition something akin to the classical dichotomy is justified by a mode of approximation appropriate for a model in which one state variable adjusts quickly while another state variable adjusts slowly even with investment adjustment costs monetary expansions are found to raise the real interest rate the determinants of real rigidity and the macroeconomic rate of price adjustment are investigated copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

parenthood and the gender gap in pay we compare the income and wage trajectories of women to those of their male partners before and after parenthood focusing on the within couple gap allows us to control for both observed and unobserved attributes of the spouse and to estimate both short and long term effects of entering parenthood we find that 15 years after the first child has been born the male female gender gaps in income and wages have increased by 32 and 10 percentage points respectively in line with a collective labor supply model the magnitude of these effects depends on counterfactual relative incomes or wages within the family

understanding hank insights from a prank using an analytically tractable heterogeneous agent new keynesian model we show that whether incomplete markets resolve new keynesian paradoxes depends on the cyclicality of income risk incomplete markets reduce the effectiveness of forward guidance and multipliers in a liquidity trap only with procyclical risk countercyclical risk amplifies these puzzles procyclical risk permits determinacy under a peg countercyclical risk may generate indeterminacy even under the taylor principle by affecting the cyclicality of risk even passive fiscal policy influences the effects of monetary policy

counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression we propose a method to decompose the changes in the wage distribution over a period of time in several factors contributing to those changes the method is based on the estimation of marginal wage distributions consistent with a conditional distribution estimated by quantile regression as well as with any hypothesized distribution for the covariates comparing the marginal distributions implied by different distributions for the covariates one is then able to perform counterfactual exercises the proposed methodology enables the identification of the sources of the increased wage inequality observed in most countries specifically it decomposes the changes in the wage distribution over a period of time into several factors contributing to those changes namely by discriminating between changes in the characteristics of the working population and changes in the returns to these characteristics we apply this methodology to portuguese data for the period 1986 1995 and find that the observed increase in educational levels contributed decisively towards greater wage inequality copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

targeted transfers and the fiscal response to the great recession abstract between 2007 and 2009 government expenditures increased rapidly across the oecd countries while economic research on the impact of government purchases has flourished in the data most of the increase in expenditures was in government transfers after documenting this fact we argue that future research should focus on the positive impact of transfers towards this we present a model in which there is no representative agent and ricardian equivalence does not hold because of uncertainty imperfect credit markets and nominal rigidities targeted lump sum transfers are expansionary both because of a neoclassical wealth effect and because of a keynesian aggregate demand effect

quantile selection models with an application to understanding changes in wage inequality we propose a method to correct for sample selection in quantile regression models selection is modeled via the cumulative distribution function or copula of the percentile error in the outcome equation and the error in the participation decision copula parameters are estimated by minimizing a method of moments criterion given these parameter estimates the percentile levels of the outcome are readjusted to correct for selection and quantile parameters are estimated by minimizing a rotated check function we apply the method to correct wage percentiles for selection into employment using data for the uk for the period 1978 2000 we also extend the method to account for the presence of equilibrium effects when performing counterfactual exercises

dampened expectations in the phillips curve a note abstract dampened inflation expectations have a significant impact on the new keynesian phillips curve this dampening not only flattens the long run phillips curve but it can also lead to a bias in the estimation of its short run slope it also affects the response of a small nk model to demand shocks and affects the optimal monetary policy in particular the price targeting result of the ramsey policy is violated when there is dampening

asset prices in a huggett economy this paper explores asset pricing in economies where there is no direct insurance against idiosyncratic risks but other assets can be used for self insurance subject to exogenously imposed borrowing limits we analyze an endowment economy based on huggett 1993 11 both with and without aggregate risk our main innovation is that we obtain full analytical tractability by studying the case with maximally tight borrowing constraints we illustrate by looking at riskless bonds equity and the term structure of interest rates and we show that the model can reproduce many features of observed asset prices when idiosyncratic risks are quantitatively reasonable

managing expectations instruments vs targets should policymakers offer forward guidance in terms of a path for an instrument such as interest rates or a target for an outcome such as unemployment we study how the optimal approach depends on a departure from rational expectations people have a limited understanding of the behavior of others and of the general equilibrium ge effects of policy the bite of such bounded rationality on implementability and welfare is minimized by target based guidance if and only if ge feedbacks are strong enough this offers a rationale for why central banks should shine the spotlight on unemployment when faced with a prolonged liquidity trap a steep keynesian cross or a large financial accelerator

are supply shocks contractionary at the zlb evidence from utilization adjusted tfp data abstract the basic new keynesian model predicts that positive supply shocks are less expansionary at the zero lower bound zlb compared to periods of active monetary policy we test this prediction empirically using fernald s 2014 utilization adjusted total factor productivity series which we take as a measure of exogenous productivity in contrast to the predictions of the model positive productivity shocks are estimated to be more expansionary at the zlb compared to normal times we find that there is no significant difference in the response of expected inflation to a productivity shock at the zlb compared to normal times

bounds on elasticities with optimization frictions a synthesis of micro and macro evidence on labor supply how can price elasticities be identified when agents face optimization frictions such as adjustment costs or inattention i derive bounds on structural price elasticities that are a function of the observed effect of a price change on demand the size of the price change and the degree of frictions the degree of frictions is measured by the utility losses agents tolerate to deviate from the frictionless optimum the bounds imply that frictions affect intensive margin elasticities much more than extensive margin elasticities i apply these bounds to the literature on labor supply the utility costs of ignoring the tax changes used to identify intensive margin labor supply elasticities are typically less than 1 of earnings as a result small frictions can explain the differences between micro and macro elasticities extensive and intensive margin elasticities and other disparate findings pooling estimates from existing studies i estimate a hicksian labor supply elasticity of 0 33 on the intensive margin and 0 25 on the extensive margin after accounting for frictions

consumer spending and the economic stimulus payments of 2008 abstract we measure the change in household spending caused by receipt of the economic stimulus payments of 2008 using questions added to the consumer expenditure survey and variation from the ran

attenuating the forward guidance puzzle implications for optimal monetary policy abstract we examine the implications of less powerful forward guidance for optimal policy using a sticky price model with an effective lower bound elb on nominal interest rates as well as a discounted euler equation and a discounted phillips curve when the private sector agents discount future economic conditions more in making their decisions today a future rate cut becomes less effective in stimulating current economic activity under a wide range of plausible degrees of discounting it is optimal for the central bank to compensate for the reduced effect of a future rate cut by keeping the policy rate at the elb for longer

the ecb s asset purchase programme a model based evaluation abstract this paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions to quantify the effects of the european central bank s recent asset purchase programme our results suggest that the macroeconomic effects of purchases are potentially important when the programme is associated with forward guidance on the interest rate the signalling that the future monetary policy stance will remain accommodative is the prominent transmission channel

household balance sheet channels of monetary policy a back of the envelope calculation for the euro area abstract this paper formulates a back of the envelope approach to study the effects of monetary policy on household consumption expenditures we analyze several transmission mechanisms operating through direct partial equilibrium channels intertemporal substitution and net interest rate exposure and indirect general equilibrium channels net nominal exposure as well as wealth collateral and labor income channels the strength of these forces varies across households depending on their marginal propensities to consume their balance sheet composition the sensitivity of their own earnings to fluctuations in aggregate labor income and the responsiveness of aggregate earnings asset prices and inflation to monetary policy shocks we quantify all these channels in the euro area by combining micro data from the hfcs and the eu lfs with structural vars estimated on aggregate time series we find that the indirect labor income channel and the housing wealth effect are strong drivers of the aggregate consumption response to monetary policy and explain the cross country heterogeneity in these responses

comment on the limits of forward guidance by jeffrey r campbell filippo ferroni jonas d m fisher and leonardo melosi abstract this note discusses the article the limits of forward guidance by jeffrey r campbell filippo ferroni jonas d m fisher and leonardo melosi the authors make an excellent contribution to the literature on solving the forward guidance puzzle by proposing that central bank communication is imperfect noisy and thus announcements of the monetary policy stance many periods ahead have a limited impact on agents decisions by estimating a rich dsge model using a wide set of us data including interest rate futures they quantify the precision of the fed s communication we show that estimating a linear model without explicitly accounting for the elb constraint may lead to biased results that overstate the imperfections of central bank communication

the relationship between relative prices and the general price level it is very nearly a truismi amaong neoclassical economists that the public is wont to confuse changes in the general price level with relative price changes correspondingl y one might speak of the independence between the two as one of the central postulates of the neoclassical tradition william stanley jevons was aml ong the first to identify this basic dichotomin economic life as well as to attempt to explain the ordinary citizen s seenming incapacity to understand it

animal spirits risk premia and monetary policy at the zero lower bound abstract in this paper we investigate the risk related effects of monetary policy in normal times as well as in periods where the zero lower bound zlb binds in a stylized macroeconomic model with boundedly rational beliefs in our model financial market participants use heuristics to assess the risk premium over the policy rate in accordance to an implicit taylor rule that measures the stance of conventional monetary policy and which serves as an informative instrument during times when the funds rate is constrained by the zlb in such a case conventional monetary policy is exhausted so that the central bank is forced to use unconventional types of policy we propose alternative monetary policy measures to help the economy out of the liquidity trap which take into account this assumed form of bounded rationality

household expenditure and the income tax rebates of 2001 using questions expressly added to the consumer expenditure survey we estimate the change in consumption expenditures caused by the 2001 federal income tax rebates and test the permanent income hypothesis we exploit the unique randomized timing of rebate receipt across households households spent 20 to 40 percent of their rebates on nondurable goods during the three month period in which their rebates arrived and roughly two thirds of their rebates cumulatively during this period and the subsequent three month period the implied effects on aggregate consumption demand are substantial consistent with liquidity constraints responses are larger for households with low liquid wealth or low income

the power of forward guidance revisited in recent years central banks have increasingly turned to forward guidance as a central tool of monetary policy especially as interest rates around the world have hit the zero lower bound standard monetary models imply that far future forward guidance is extremely powerful promises about far future interest rates have huge effects on current economic outcomes and these effects grow with the horizon of the forward guidance we show that the power of forward guidance is highly sensitive to the assumption of complete markets if agents face uninsurable income risk and borrowing constraints a precautionary savings effect tempers their responses to changes in future interest rates as a consequence forward guidance has substantially less power to stimulate the economy in addition we show that the business cycle dynamics of our incomplete markets model differ substantially from its complete market counterpart this contrasts with the well known results of krusell and smith 1998 we present approximate representations that can easily be incorporated into standard business cycle models

optimal monetary policy and financial stability in a non ricardian economy this paper develops a model with discontinuous asset market participation in which all agents are infinitely lived and non ricardian and where heterogeneity among market participants implies financial wealth effects on aggregate consumption derivation of a welfare based loss function shows that financial stability arises as an additional and independent target besides infl ation and output stability evaluation of optimal policy under discretion and commitment reveals that price stability may no longer be optimal even absent inefficient supply shocks some fluctuations in output and infl ation are optimal as long as they reduce financial instability ignoring the heterogeneity among market participants in this economy may lead monetary policy to induce substantially higher welfare losses

delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks evidence from the euro area abstract what drives the reaction of financial markets to central bank communication on the days of policy decisions we highlight the role of two factors that we identify from high frequency monetary surprises news on future macroeconomic conditions delphic shocks and news on future monetary policy shocks odyssean shocks these two shocks move the yield curve in the same direction but have opposite effects on financial conditions and macroeconomic expectations they also have a different impact on macroeconomic outcomes so that central bankers cannot infer the degree of stimulus they provide by looking at the mere reaction of the yield curve

monetary news shocks we pursue an empirical strategy to identify a monetary news shock in the u s economy we use a monetary policy residual along with other variables in a vector autoregression var and identify a monetary news shock as the linear combination of reduced form innovations that is orthogonal to the current residual and that maximizes the sum of contributions to its forecast error variance over a finite horizon real gdp declines in a persistent manner after a positive monetary news shock this contraction in economic activity is accompanied by a fall in inflation and a rapid increase in the nominal interest rate

forward guidance communication commitment or both abstract forward guidance has been suggested as a form of commitment odyssean by the policymaker or as a way of conveying information delphic i analyze the interaction between households and the central bank as a game in which the central bank sends messages without private information the set of equilibrium payoffs is independent of any announcements pure odyssean forward guidance is redundant with private information communication can have social value forward guidance is well suited to leverage preexisting credibility to communicate a central bank s private information about its own preferences or beliefs

returns to skills around the world evidence from piaac abstract existing estimates of the labor market returns to human capital give a distorted picture of the role of skills across different economies international comparisons of earnings analyses rely almost exclusively on school attainment measures of human capital and evidence incorporating direct measures of cognitive skills is mostly restricted to early career workers in the united states analysis of the new piaac survey of adult skills over the full lifecycle in 23 countries shows that the focus on early career earnings leads to underestimating the lifetime returns to skills by about one quarter on average a one standard deviation increase in numeracy skills is associated with an 18 percent wage increase among prime age workers but this masks considerable heterogeneity across countries eight countries including all nordic countries have returns between 12 and 15 percent while six are above 21 percent with the largest return being 28 percent in the united states estimates are remarkably robust to different earnings and skill measures additional controls and various subgroups instrumental variable models that use skill variation stemming from school attainment parental education or compulsory schooling laws provide even higher estimates intriguingly returns to skills are systematically lower in countries with higher union density stricter employment protection and larger public sector shares

inflation and output in new keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg a familiar result in the canonical dynamic new keynesian dnk model is that policymakers constrained by the zero bound can improve outcomes by promising to keep rates low after the zero bound is not binding we examine a general class of interest rate pegs in a variety of dnk models standard versions of the model produce counterintuitive reversals where the effect of the interest rate peg can switch from highly expansionary to highly contractionary for modest changes in the length of the interest rate peg this unusual behavior does not arise in sticky information models of the phillips curve

pegging the interest rate on bank reserves a resolution of new keynesian puzzles and paradoxes abstract introducing bank reserves or money into the basic new keynesian nk model offers a resolution of nk puzzles and paradoxes the resulting models deliver local equilibrium determinacy under an exogenous interest rate on reserves and an exogenous nominal stock of reserves even for an arbitrarily small monetary friction this leads to a resolution of the forward guidance puzzle the fiscal multiplier puzzle and the paradox of flexibility as the monetary friction becomes vanishingly small the models converge to the basic nk model and serve to select a particular equilibrium of that model which also offers a resolution of the paradox of toil

self fulfilling debt crises what can monetary policy do this paper examines the potential for monetary policy to avoid self fulfilling sovereign debt crises we combine a version of the slow moving debt crisis model proposed by lorenzoni and werning 2014 with a standard new keynesian model monetary policy could preclude a debt crisis through raising inflation and output and lowering the real interest rate these reduce the real value of outstanding debt and the cost of new borrowing and increase tax revenues and seigniorage we determine the optimal path of inflation required to avoid a self fulfilling debt crisis stronger price rigidity implies more sustained inflation

automatic stabilizers and economic crisis us vs europe this paper analyzes the effectiveness of the tax and transfer systems in the eu and the us to provide income insurance through automatic stabilization in the recent economic crisis we find that automatic stabilizers absorb 38 of a proportional income shock in the eu compared to 32 in the us in the case of an unemployment shock 47 of the shock is absorbed in the eu compared to 34 in the us this cushioning of disposable income leads to a demand stabilization of up to 30 in the eu and up to 20 in the us there is large heterogeneity within the eu automatic stabilizers in eastern and southern europe are much lower than in central and northern european countries we also investigate whether countries with weak automatic stabilizers have enacted larger fiscal stimulus programs

the reaction of household consumption to predictable changes in social security taxes the key implication of rational expectations and the basic life cycle permanent income hypothesis that predictable changes in income have no effect on the growth rate of consumption expenditures is examined this implication is important for understanding the effectiveness and optimal timing of fiscal policy the causes and propagation of business cycles and the effects of income fluctuations on the growth rate of the economy using household level consumption data from the consumer expenditure survey whether expenditures on nondurable goods increase contemporaneously with predictable changes in social security tax withholding is tested it is found that households do change their consumption expenditures in response to the predictable fluctuations in income induced by the social security tax system

evaluating central banks tool kit past present and future abstract we develop a structural dsge model to systematically study the principal tools of unconventional monetary policy quantitative easing qe forward guidance and negative interest rate policy nirp as well as the interactions between them to generate the same output response the requisite nirp and forward guidance interventions are twice as large as a conventional policy shock which seems implausible in practice in contrast qe via an endogenous feedback rule can alleviate the constraints on conventional policy posed by the zero lower bound quantitatively qe1 qe3 can account for two thirds of the observed decline in the shadow federal funds rate in spite of its usefulness qe does not come without cost a large balance sheet has consequences for different normalization plans the efficacy of nirp and the effective lower bound on the policy rate

forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs abstract this paper studies the macroeconomic effects of central bank forward guidance when central bank credibility is endogenous we take a stylized new keynesian model with an occasionally binding effective lower bound constraint on nominal interest rates and heterogeneous and boundedly rational households central bank forecasts follow a bivariate var not taking into account the time variation in the distribution of aggregate expectations in this framework we extend the central bank s toolkit to allow for the publication of its own forecasts delphic guidance and the commitment to a future path of the nominal interest rate odyssean guidance we find that both delphic and odyssean forward guidance increase the likelihood of recovery from a liquidity trap even though odyssean guidance alone appears more powerful in inducing recovery we find it to increase ex post macroeconomic volatility and thus reduce welfare

trends in earnings differentials by gender 1971 1981 this paper clarifies trends in relative earnings by sex over the decade 1971 1981 and decomposes these trends to determine which factors contributed to a decline and which to an increase our analyses are based upon data from the annual demographic files of the current population survey for 1972 and 1982 this study is unique in that it estimates earnings functions in each year which are corrected for selectivity bias it is found that such a correction markedly raises the progress of white women relative to men among blacks the impact of the selectivity bias correction was to substantially lower the relative earnings increase of women however the coefficients on the selectivity variable were not significant the findings suggest declining sex role specialization and discrimination as conventionally measured over the decade on the other hand contrary to expectations the total effect of variables reflecting the sex composition of the individuals occupation worked to widen the sex differential over the period the sex differential was also adversely affected by a decline in the relative return to education especially for whites authors modified

evaluating the macroeconomic effects of the ecb s unconventional monetary policies we quantify the macroeconomic effects of the european central bank s unconventional monetary policies using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes a set of shadow interest rates extracted from the yield curve these shadow rates provide unconstrained measures of the overall stance of monetary policy counterfactual analyses show that without unconventional measures the euro area would have suffered i a substantial loss of output since the great recession and ii a period of deflation from mid 2015 to early 2017 specifically year on year inflation and gdp growth would have been on average about 0 61 and 1 09 below their actual levels over the period 2014q1 17q2 respectively

monetary policy announcements and expectations evidence from german firms abstract we assess empirically whether monetary policy announcements impact firm expectations two features of our data set are key first we rely on a survey of production and price expectations of german firms that is expectations of actual price setters second we observe the day on which firms submit their answers to the survey we compare the responses of firms before and after monetary policy surprises and obtain two results first firm expectations respond to policy surprises second the response becomes weaker as the surprise becomes bigger a contractionary surprise of moderate size reduces firm expectations while a moderate expansionary surprise raises them large surprises both negative and positive fail to alter expectations consistent with this result we find that many of the ecb s announcements of non conventional policies did not affect expectations significantly overall our results are consistent with the notion that monetary policy surprises generate an information effect which is endogenous to the size of the policy surprise

a further look at the propagation of monetary policy shocks in hank we provide quantitative guidance on whether and to what extent different elements of heterogeneous agent new keynesian hank models amplify or dampen the response of aggregate consumption to a monetary policy shock we emphasize four findings first the introduction of capital adjustment costs does not affect the aggregate response but does change the transmission mechanism so that a larger share of indirect effects originates from equity prices rather than from labor income second incorporating estimated unequal incidence functions for aggregate labor income fluctuations leads to either amplification or dampening depending on the data and estimation methods third distribution rules for monopoly profits that allocate a larger share to liquid assets lead to greater amplification fourth assumptions about the fiscal reaction to a monetary policy shock have a stronger effect on the aggregate consumption response than any of the other three elements

solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty using the krusell smith algorithm and non stochastic simulations abstract this article describes the approach to computing the version of the stochastic growth model with idiosyncratic and aggregate risk that relies on collapsing the aggregate state space down to a small number of moments used to forecast future prices one innovation relative to most of the literature is the use of a non stochastic simulation routine

rule of thumb consumers meet sticky wages it has been argued that rule of thumb consumers substantially alter the determinacy properties of simple interest rate rules and the dynamics of an otherwise standard new keynesian model in this paper we show that nominal wage stickiness helps re establishing standard results key findings are that wage stickiness i affects the shape of determinacy regions in the parameters space restoring the relevance of the taylor principle for the conduct of monetary policy ii implies that a rise in consumption in response to an innovation in government spending is not a robust feature of the model

the dispersion of relative commodity prices under very rapid inflation abstract the hypothesis that inflation is not neutral with respect to relative commodity prices has recently received a great deal of attention in this paper the recent experience of argentina a country suffering from a very high rate of inflation is considered it is found that the increase in relative price variability which is associated with higher rates of inflation is caused mainly by surprises or unanticipated changes in the inflation rate and that fully expected inflation appears to have less or no relative price effects an additional result indicates that increased variability of relative commodity prices have effects on financial portfolio composition reducing the holdings of real cash balances

the dynamic effects of forward guidance shocks we examine the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance shocks at the zero lower bound empirically we identify forward guidance shocks using unexpected changes in futures contracts around moneta

household heterogeneity and the transmission of foreign shocks abstract we study the role of heterogeneity in the transmission of foreign shocks we build a heterogeneous agent new keynesian small open model economy hanksome that experiences a current account reversal households portfolio composition and the extent of foreign currency borrowing are key determinants of the magnitude of the contraction in consumption associated with a sudden stop in capital inflows the contraction is more severe when households are leveraged and owe debt in foreign currency in this setting the revaluation of foreign debt causes a larger contraction in aggregate consumption when debt and leverage are concentrated among poorer households closing the output gap via an exchange rate devaluation may therefore be detrimental to household welfare due to the heterogeneous impact of the foreign debt revaluation our hanksome framework can rationalize the observed fear of floating in emerging market economies even in the absence of contractionary devaluations

inflationary regimes and relative price variability evidence from argentina abstract this paper explores the relation between inflation and relative prices for argentina over the 1960 1993 period the study is carried out in the framework of four inflationary regimes moderate high very high inflation and hyperinflation the evidence favors the view of non neutrality of inflation relative price variability is increasing in inflation but decreasing when inflation climbs smoothly and gradually the inflation rate and its volatility are the main explanatory factors of price variability while the effects of expected and unexpected inflation are ambiguous in contrast to previous consensus we found that fix price variability is always increasing in inflation and particularly in extreme inflation in addition the relation between inflation and relative prices exhibits structural changes across different levels of inflation

real balance effects and monetary policy i introduction modern literature on monetary policy rules employs new keynesian optimizing models that do not explicitly include monetary aggregates see e g rotemberg and woodford 1997 clarida et al 1999 taylor 1999 in these models the demand for output derives from the log linearization of the standard euler equation characterizing household s saving decisions the real money stock does not enter the is relation and therefore monetary policy affects output and inflation only through its effect on the real interest rate when the nominal interest rate is the policy instrument it is not necessary to specify a money market equilibrium condition see romer 2000 the practice of neglecting monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis has recently been questioned by meltzer 1999 mccallum 2001 and nelson 2002 2003 in particular mccallum 2001 points out that although no explicit term involving money appears in the standard new keynesian setup long run inflation can still be pinned down by the economy steady state nominal money growth rate moreover mccallum 2000 2001 andres et al 2001 kremer et al 2003 woodford 2003 ireland 2004a and collard and dellas 2005 analyze the case in which the resources used by consumers in conducting transactions are modeled by a nonseparable function of consumption and real money balances meltzer 1999 2001 argues that changes in real monetary base generate effects on real aggregate demand not summarized by the real interest rate on short term securities nelson 2003 emphasizes the role of money in the transmission mechanism both as a proxy for a whole spectrum of rates of return and as an indicator variable which contains information about the state of the economy the main aim of the present article is to provide additional microfoundations for an explicit role for money in the current macroeconomic debate in particular i derive a real balance effect that explicitly enters the is relation within an optimizing general equilibrium framework of the new keynesian type according to de scitovszky 1941 haberler 1946 pigou 1943 and patinkin 1965 a change in real money balances has an impact on the real financial wealth of consumers and therefore affects consumption and output notably this effect is not considered in traditional models there is in fact empirical evidence showing that real monetary base growth is a significant determinant of consumption and output gap in both the united states and in the united kingdom see chari et al 1995 meltzer 1999 nelson 2002 the present article extends the dynamic stochastic new keynesian setup with money in the utility function by introducing overlapping generations as modeled by yaari 1965 and blanchard 1985 there are good reasons to base the demand side of the economy on a discrete time stochastic monetary version of the yaari blanchard model first this kind of extension allows one to maintain the main characteristics of the so called new neoclassical synthesis that is forward looking behavior of optimizing agents and incomplete nominal adjustment of prices featured in new keynesian theories goodfriend and king 1997 second the derivation of the real balance effect does not require nonseparability in the utility function thus the implications are analytically more tractable 1 third my framework is more general because it includes the immortal representative agent setup as a particular case my analysis attempts to examine whether the presence of an explicit real balance effect in the is relation helps evaluate the role for money in designing monetary policy rules i focus on basic issues concerning the design of monetary policy rules specifically i investigate whether it is necessary for monetary policy to overreact to inflation by raising the nominal interest rate by more than the observed increase in inflation to rule out equilibrium multiplicity

credit crises precautionary savings and the liquidity trap we use a model a la bewly huggett ayagari to explore the eects of a credit crunch on consumer spending households borrow and lend to smooth idiosyncratic income shocks facing an exogenous borrowing constraint we look at the economy response after an unexpected permananent tightening of this constraint the interest rate drops sharply in the short run and then adjusts to a lower steady state level this is due to the fact that after the shock a large fraction of agents is far below their target holdings of precautionary savings and this generates a large temporary positive shock to net lending we then look at the eects on output here two opposing forces are present as households can deleverage in two ways by consuming less and by working more we show that under a reasonable parametrization the eect on consumer spending dominates and precautionary behavior generates a recession if we add nominal rigidities two things happen i supply side responses are muted and ii there is a lower bound on the interest rate adjustment these two elements tend to amplify the recession caused by the credit tightening

unemployment fears and deflationary spirals the interaction of incomplete markets and sticky nominal wages is shown to magnify business cycles even though these two features in isolation dampen them during recessions fears of unemployment stir up precautionary sentiments which induces agents to save more the additional savings may be used as investments in both a productive asset equity and an unproductive asset money but even a small rise in money demand has important consequences the desire to hold money puts deflationary pressure on the economy which provided that nominal wages are sticky increases wage costs and reduces firm profits lower profits repress the desire to save in equity which increases the fear of unemployment and so on this is a powerful mechanism which causes the model to behave differently from both its complete markets version and a version with incomplete markets but without aggregate uncertainty in contrast to previous results in the literature agents uniformly prefer non trivial levels of unemployment insurance

high frequency identification of monetary non neutrality the information effect we present estimates of monetary non neutrality based on evidence from high frequency responses of real interest rates expected inflation and expected output growth our identifying assumption is that unexpected changes in interest rates in a 30 minute window surrounding scheduled federal reserve announcements arise from news about monetary policy in response to an interest rate hike nominal and real interest rates increase roughly one for one several years out into the term structure while the response of expected inflation is small at the same time forecasts about output growth also increase the opposite of what standard models imply about a monetary tightening to explain these facts we build a model in which fed announcements affect beliefs not only about monetary policy but also about other economic fundamentals our model implies that these information effects play an important role in the overall causal effect of monetary policy shocks on output

on inflation and real price variability this paper studies the consequences of costly price adjustments for the variability of real prices accompanying inflation for constant elasticity demand and cost of production it is shown that a higher demand a lower cost of production or a lower cost of price adjustment leads to less intertemporal variability of real prices if the marginal cost of production does not increase too fast then the average real price is less than the real price that would prevail in the absence of inflation additionally a higher demand a lower cost of production or a lower cost of price adjustment leads to a higher level of real prices

the new keynesian transmission mechanism a heterogenous agent perspective we present a tractable heterogeneous agent version of the new keynesian model that allows us to study the interaction between inequality and monetary policy though formulated as a precautionary saving model a la huggett aiyagari its reduced form is a two agent model with a highly concentrated wealth distribution when prices are sticky and wages flexible as in the textbook representative agent model monetary policy affects the distribution of consumption but has no effect on output as workers choose not to change their hours worked in response to wage movements this highlights a transmission mechanism of the textbook model that we find implausible in response to a monetary stimulus the representative worker s labor supply is greatly affected by the profits she receives first the lower profits induced by higher wages raise labor supply through a wealth effect and secondly the mere presence of profits reduces the negative income effect of a wage rise when wages are rigid in contrast our model exhibits plausible responses of output and hours worked to monetary policy shocks

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

putting tasks to the test human capital job tasks and wages using original representative survey data we document that analytical routine and manual job tasks can be measured with high validity vary substantially within and between occupations are significantly related to workers characteristics and are robustly predictive of wage differences between occupations and among workers in the same occupation we offer a conceptual framework that makes explicit the causal links between human capital endowments occupational assignment job tasks and wages which motivate a roy model of the allocation of workers to occupations we offer two simple tests of the model s gross predictions for the relationship between tasks and wages both of which receive qualified empirical support

relative prices and inflation new evidence from different inflationary contexts this paper analyses the relationship between inflation and relative price variability in the direction of the latter in two countries with very different inflationary experiences argentina and spain to address this objective using disaggregated price indexes the wholesale price index for argentina and the consumer price index for spain we delimitate different inflationary regimes and compute a set of regressions for each country our results suggest evidence in favour of the non neutrality of inflation mostly in hyperinflation periods and do not support either the menu costs or the signal extraction approaches we also detect significant structural changes in the relationship depending on the inflationary regime

asset market participation monetary policy rules and the great inflation this paper argues that limited asset market participation is crucial in explaining u s macroeconomic performance and monetary policy before the 1980s and their changes thereafter in an otherwise conventional sticky price model standard aggregate demand logic is inverted at low enough asset market participation interest rate increases become expansionary passive monetary policy ensures equilibrium determinacy and maximizes welfare this suggests that federal reserve policy in the pre volcker era was better than conventional wisdom implies we provide empirical evidence consistent with this hypothesis and study the relative merits of changes in structure and shocks for reproducing the conquest of the great inflation and the great moderation

inflation fixed cost of price adjustment and measurement of relative price variability theory and evidence in an interesting paper julio rotemberg 1983 extends the works of eitan sheshinski and yoram weiss 1977 and michael mussa 1981 to examine the aggregate consequences of monetary growth in an economy in which sellers incur a fixed cost of price adjustment the fixed cost prevents a continual adjustment of individual prices so each seller keeps his price constant in periods of discrete length increasing his price in discrete jumps at the end of these periods a central feature of the inflationary process is therefore that relative prices become dispersed around their means and the theory predicts that even a fully anticipated inflation increases the variability of relative prices the empirical evidence on this point does however appear to be mixed on the one hand richard parks 1978 and stanley fischer 1981a b 1982 conclude that anticipated inflation does increase relative price variability which fischer interprets as providing empirical support for the theory on the other hand mario blejer 1981 1983 and blejer and leonardo leiderman 1982 find that anticipated inflation has no effect or only a very weak effect on relative price variability which makes john taylor 1981 doubt the quantitative significance of the theory 2 this paper uses rotemberg s theoretical framework to demonstrate that the proxy for relative price variability adopted in the empirical literature does not properly capture the relative price variability that is caused by a fixed cost of price adjustment the methodology of the above cited studies is therefore not appropriate for evaluating the empirical relevance of the fixed cost theory and the divergence of their results is not surprising specifically the proxy which consists of the variance of the rates of price change between successive observations does not always increase with the anticipated inflation even with disaggregate data 3 the proxy decreases with the anticipated inflation in approximately half of any interval of inflation rates for which a seller adjusts his price no more than a given number of times between successive observations moreover the relationship between the anticipated inflation and the proxy depends on such extraneous factors as the timing of the observations a change in the timing may change a positive relationship between the anticipated inflation and the proxy to a negative one and vice versa the paper also proposes alternative more satisfactory measures of relative price variability and provides empirical support for the theoretical conclusions

gender wage gap and the role of skills and tasks evidence from the austrian piaac data set we analyze the gender differences in skills tasks and skill matching of workers and the impact of these factors on the gender wage gap using the survey of adult skills a product of the oecd pro

forward guidance and the state of the economy this paper analyzes forward guidance in a nonlinear model with a zero lower bound zlb on the nominal interest rate forward guidance is modeled with news shocks to the monetary policy rule which capture innovations in expectations from central bank communication about future policy rates whereas most studies use quasi linear models that disregard the expectational effects of hitting the zlb we show how the effectiveness of forward guidance nonlinearly depends on the state of the economy the speed of the recovery the degree of uncertainty the policy shock size and the forward guidance horizon when households account for the zlb jel e43 e58 e61

limited asset markets participation monetary policy and inverted aggregate demand logic abstract this paper incorporates limited asset markets participation in dynamic general equilibrium and develops a simple analytical framework for monetary policy analysis aggregate dynamics and stability properties of an otherwise standard business cycle model depend nonlinearly on the degree of asset market participation while moderate participation rates strengthen the role of monetary policy low enough participation causes an inversion of results dictated by conventional wisdom the slope of the is curve changes sign the taylor principle is inverted optimal welfare maximizing discretionary monetary policy requires a passive policy rule and the effects and propagation of shocks are changed however a targeting rule implementing optimal policy under commitment delivers equilibrium determinacy regardless of the degree of asset market participation our results may justify fed s behavior during the great inflation period

the power of sunspots an experimental analysis abstract in an experiment using a coordination game with extrinsic random signals sunspots we systematically vary the stochastic process generating these signals and measure how signals affect behavior we find that sunspot equilibria emerge naturally with salient public signals however highly correlated private signals can also lead to sunspot driven behavior even when this is not an equilibrium private signals reduce the power of public signals as sunspot variables the higher the correlation of extrinsic signals and the more easily they can be aggregated the more powerful these signals are in distracting actions from the action that minimizes strategic uncertainty

solving heterogeneous agent models by projection and perturbation the paper proposes a numerical solution method for general equilibrium models with a continuum of heterogeneous agents that combines elements of projection and of perturbation methods the basic idea is to solve first for the stationary solution of the model without aggregate shocks but with fully specified idiosyncratic shocks afterwards one computes a first order perturbation of the solution in the aggregate shocks this approach allows to include a high dimensional representation of the cross sectional distribution in the state vector the method is applied to a model of household saving with uninsurable income risk and liquidity constraints techniques are discussed to reduce the dimension of the state space such that higher order perturbations are feasible

preferences over wealth experimental evidence abstract preferences over wealth are a channel to explain why households in the aggregate are less responsive when real interest rates fall following such preferences they save more than would be optimal in a standard model however little is known about preferences over wealth empirically we run an intentionally simple lab experiment on intertemporal spending and saving decisions with 180 students under a positive discount factor zero interest and linear utility maximizing behaviour would imply spending any funds instantaneously while half of the participants behave optimally we find a robust pattern where participants on average form and maintain a stock of wealth consistent with wealth entering the utility function directly

the new keynesian cross abstract the new keynesian nk cross is a graphical and analytical apparatus for heterogeneous agent hank models expressing key aggregate demand objects mpc and multipliers as functions of heterogeneity parameters it affords analytical insights into monetary fiscal and forward guidance multipliers and replicates the aggregate implications of quantitative hank the key parameter the constrained agents income elasticity to aggregate income depends on fiscal redistribution when it is larger smaller than one the effects of policies and shocks are amplified dampened with uninsurable idiosyncratic uncertainty this translates intertemporally through compounding discounting in the aggregate euler equation into further amplification dampening of future shocks

monetary policy when households have debt new evidence on the transmission mechanism in response to an unanticipated change in interest rates households with mortgage debt adjust their expenditure signicantly especially on durable goods renters react to a lesser extent and outright home owners do not react at all all housing tenure groups experience a signicant change in disposable income over and above the direct impact on mortgage repayments the response of house prices is sizable driving a signicant adjustment in loanto income ratios but little change in loan to value ratios a simple collateral constraint model augmented with durable goods and a renting decision generates predictions consistent with these novel empirical ndings and suggests that heterogeneity in housing debt positions plays an important role in the transmission of monetary policy

the power of forward guidance in a quantitative tank model abstract we quantify the macroeconomic effects of interest rate forward guidance in an estimated medium scale two agent new keynesian tank model although tank models can in principle dampen or amplify the power of forward guidance compared to a representative agent model our estimates indicate a dampening as there is sufficient countercyclical redistribution an interaction of forward guidance with asset purchases gives rise to non linear effects that depend on the horizon of the interest rate peg

the missing link monetary policy and the labor share the textbook new keynesian nk model implies that the labor share is pro cyclical conditional on a monetary policy shock we present evidence that a monetary policy tightening robustly increased the labor share and decreased real wages and labor productivity during the great moderation period in the us the euro area the uk australia and canada we show that this is inconsistent not only with the basic nk model but with a wide variety of nk models commonly used for monetary policy analysis and where the direct link between the labor share and the markup can be broken down

unconventional monetary policy and bank risk taking abstract we analyze the presence of bank risk taking associated with unconventional monetary policy in the united states between 2008 and 2015 using corporate syndicated loan data at the bank firm level we measure monetary policy using the identification through heteroskedasticity approach with a var model to identify the risk taking channel we control for time varying heterogeneity in credit demand and supply our results indicate that accommodating monetary conditions are associated with overall lower loan spreads however the spread reduction is lower for riskier firms suggesting that there is no risk taking behavior in the syndicated loan market during the ump period

inflation and relative price variability in the open economy this paper explores the determination of relative price variability in a small open economy operating under a fixed exchange rate a central ingredient of the model presented is the distinction made between traded and non traded goods this distinction leads to a decomposition of total variability into three components the variabilities within each set of goods and between the two sets the analysis also emphasizes the effects of expected versus unexpected inflation on the variability of relative prices the model is tested using annual data for mexico covering the 1951 76 period

lending effects of the ecb s asset purchases abstract between 2010 and 2012 the european central bank absorbed 218 billion worth of government securities from five emu countries under the securities markets programme smp detailed security holdings data at the bank level affirms an effective lending stimulus due to the smp exposed banks contract household lending but increase commercial lending substantially holding non smp securities from stressed emu countries amplifies the commercial lending response the smp also improved liquidity buffers and profitability without compromising credit quality

the risk free rate in heterogeneous agent incomplete insurance economies abstract why has the average real risk free interest rate been less than one percent the question is motivated by the failure of a class of calibrated representative agent economies to explain the average return to equity and risk free debt i construct an economy where agents experience uninsurable idiosyncratic endowment shocks and smooth consumption by holding a risk free asset i calibrate the economy and characterize equilibria computationally with a borrowing constraint of one year s income the resulting risk free rate is more than one percent below the rate in the comparable representative agent economy

explaining women s success technological change and the skill content of women s work the closing of the gender wage gap is an ongoing phenomenon in industrialized countries however research has been limited in its ability to understand the causes of these changes due in part to an inability to directly compare the work of women to that of men in this study we use a new approach for analyzing changes in the gender pay gap that uses direct measures of job tasks and gives a comprehensive characterization of how work for men and women has changed in recent decades using data from west germany we find that women have witnessed relative increases in non routine analytic tasks and non routine interactive tasks which are associated with higher skill levels the most notable difference between the genders is however the pronounced relative decline in routine task inputs among women with little change for men these relative task changes explain a substantial fraction of the closing of the gender wage gap our evidence suggests that these task changes are driven at least in part by technological change we also show that these task changes are related to the recent polarization of employment between low and high skilled occupations that we observed in the 1990s

can more public information raise uncertainty the international evidence on forward guidance abstract central banks have used different types of forward guidance this paper reports cross country evidence showing that in general forward guidance mutes the response of government bond yields to macroeconomic news however calendar based guidance with a short horizon counter intuitively raises it using a stylized model where agents learn from market signals it shows that the public release of more precise information about future rates lowers the informativeness of market signals and as a consequence may increase uncertainty and amplify the reaction of expectations to macroeconomic news

the role of automatic stabilizers in the u s business cycle most countries have automatic rules in their tax and transfer systems that are partly intended to stabilize economic uctuations this paper measures how eective they are at lowering the volatility of u s economic activity we identify seven potential stabilizers in the data and include four theoretical channels through which they may operate in a business cycle model calibrated to the u s data the model is used to compare the volatility of output in the data with counterfactuals where some or all of the stabilizers are shut down our rst nding is that proportional taxes like sales property and corporate income taxes contribute little to stabilization our second

macroeconomic fluctuations with hank sam an analytical approach new keynesian models with unemployment and incomplete markets are rapidly becoming a new workhorse model in macroeconomics such models typically require heavy computational methods which may obscure intuition and overlook equilibria we present a tractable version which can be characterized analytically our results highlight that ndue the interaction between incomplete markets sticky prices and endogenous unemployment risk nproductivity shocks may have radically di erent e ects than in traditional nk models that the taylor principle may fail and that pessimistic beliefs may be self fulolling and move the economy into temporary episodes of low demand and high unemployment as well as into a long lasting iunemployment trapi at the zero lower bound the presence of endogenous unemployment risk can create inaation and overturn paradoxical properties of the model we further study onancial asset prices and show that non negligible risk premia emerge

uncovered interest parity forward guidance and the exchange rate under uncovered interest parity uip the size of the effect on the real exchange rate of an anticipated change in real interest rate differentials is invariant to the horizon at which the change is expected empirical evidence using us euro area and uk data points to a substantial deviation from that invariance prediction expectations of interest rate differentials in the near distant future are shown to have much larger smaller effects on the real exchange rate than is implied by uip some possible explanations are discussed