macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in asian economies abstract this paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of structural oil shocks in four of the top oil consuming asian economies using a var model we identify three different structural oil shocks via sign restrictions an oil supply shock an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and an oil specific demand shock the main results suggest that economic activity and prices respond very differently to oil price shocks depending on their types in particular an oil supply shock has a limited impact while a demand shock driven by global economic activity has a significant positive effect in all four asian countries examined our finding also includes that policy tools such as interest rates and exchange rates help mitigating the effects of supply shocks in japan and korea however they can be more actively used in response to demands shocks

crude oil prices and liquidity the bric and g3 countries unanticipated increases in the bric countries liquidity lead to significant and persistent increases in real oil prices global oil production and global real aggregate demand unanticipated shocks to the liquidity of developed countries over 1997 01 2011 12 do not the relative contribution to real oil price of liquidity in bric countries to liquidity in developed countries is much greater since 2005 than before 2005 china and india drive the results for the effect of bric countries liquidity on real oil price and global oil production china and india and brazil and russia reinforce one another on the effect of liquidity on global real aggregate demand due to the difference between countries as commodity importers exporters the liquidity of brazil and russia increases significantly with a rise in real oil price and that of china and india decreases significantly with a rise in real oil price it is shown that the strong rebound in oil price during 2009 is mostly due to strong effects of shocks to liquidity in the bric countries the analysis helps in assessing the importance of the bric economies in the upsurge of the real price of crude oil

intergenerational income group mobility and differential fertility one question development economists are especially interested in but so far left unanswered is how would the societal income distribution be affected by introducing a family planning program to reduce the reproduction rate of the poor which is usually high in developing countries the purpose of this paper is to search for analytical answers to this question we are able to make definite comparisons about some class of inequality measures of the steady state societal income distributions and these comparisons provide strong theoretical support in favor of the above mentioned family planning program excerpt

the effects of oil price uncertainty on global real economic activity this paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on global real economic activity using a quarterly vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility in mean stochastic volatility allows oil price uncertainty to vary separately from changes in the level of oil prices and allows one to incorporate an extraneous indicator of oil price uncertainty such as realized volatility that greatly improves the precision of the estimated uncertainty series the estimation results show that an oil price uncertainty shock has negative effects on world industrial production all else equal for example it is shown that a doubling of oil price volatility is associated with a cumulative decline as high as 0 3 percentage points in world industrial production

impacts of oil implied volatility shocks on stock implied volatility in china empirical evidence from a quantile regression approach abstract this paper investigates the impacts of changes in the implied volatility index of the oil market ovx on the changes in the implied volatility index of the chinese stock market vxfxi a quantile regression approach is applied to our empirical analysis as this approach can perform a more detailed investigation under different market conditions moreover we test whether the vxfxi changes would respond with lags and asymmetry to the ovx changes our empirical results show that the impacts of the ovx changes on the vxfxi changes are positive and tend to be stronger in bearish markets furthermore the results of testing lagged effects reveal that strong linkages between the two variables are transient in different market conditions which don t support the gradual information diffusion hypothesis very well finally we find that the ovx changes can asymmetrically affect the vxfxi changes specifically the negative ovx changes have stronger effects under bullish market conditions while the positive ovx changes play a more important role during bearish periods

oil price shocks and their short and long term effects on the chinese economy a considerable body of economic literature shows the adverse economic impacts of oil price shocks for the developed economies however there has been a lack of empirical study of this kind on china and other developing countries this paper attempts to fill this gap by answering how and to what extent oil price shocks impact china s economy emphasizing on the price transmission mechanisms to that end we develop a structural vector auto regressive model our results show that an oil price increase negatively affects output and investment but positively affects inflation rate and interest rate however with the differentiated price control policies for materials and intermediates on the one hand and final products on the other hand in china the impact on real economy represented by real output and real investment lasts much longer than that to price monetary variables our decomposition results also show that the short term impact namely output decrease induced by the cut of capacity utilization rate is greater in the first one to two years but the portion of the long term impact defined as the impact realized through an investment change increases steadily and exceeds that of short term impact at the end of the second year afterwards the long term impact dominates and maintains for quite some time

implications of oil prices shocks for the major emerging economies a comparative analysis of brics abstract this study analyses the implications of oil prices shocks for the brics economies we employed a time varying structural vector autoregressive tv sva framework in which the sources of time variation are the coefficients and variance covariance matrix of the innovations the quarter frequency data for the period of 1987qii 2017qii is used for the empirical analysis the key findings suggest that there are substantial differences and asymmetries in the response of these economies to oil shocks these differences were profound between and even within oil exporters and importers it shows that between major oil exporters i e russia and brazil the former s economy is rather more intensively influenced by oil prices shocks between the two largest net oil importers i e india and china comparatively the indian economy seems to be rather more vulnerable to oil prices shocks in terms of their adverse effects on gdp inflation and balance of trade the dependence of economies on oil and an increasing level of consumption continue to pose policy challenges for prices and economic stability the analysis on south africa also shows negative impacts of oil prices shocks however the effects are comparatively more time variant than other brics members while these asymmetries indicate significant differences in the structure of these economies they also indicate venues of cooperation and stronger trading relationships to overcome the adverse shocks and mutual development

oil supply shocks and economic growth in the mediterranean abstract we study how oil supply shocks affect the output growth of selected countries in the mediterranean region we focus on the effects of oil supply shocks on economic activity as measured by real gross value added for the whole economy as well as for specific industries we show that the response of real gross value added growth is negative and often statistically significant for net energy importers while for net energy exporters it is not distinguishable from zero this result holds for the aggregate economies as well as for the selected industries moreover the effects of oil supply shocks increase with the degree of energy dependence in the mediterranean countries belonging to the european union our results have several policy implications first the european union should encourage projects on the efficient use of energy in the mediterranean area second european financial markets should promote appropriate financial instruments to stimulate investments in the mediterranean energy sector third international investors should consider the country specific reactions to major macroeconomic shocks in the mediterranean region

renewable energy consumption economic growth nexus in turkey abstract this paper examines the renewable energy consumption economic growth causality nexus in turkey studies in the literature can be grouped as country specific and multi country studies the results of these studies are inconsistent and there is no agreement on the existence or the direction of causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth the results of this country specific study support conservation hypothesis the results of empirical tests from ardl approach show that renewable energy consumption has a negative impact on economic growth and the ones of toda yamamoto causality tests show that there is a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to renewable energy consumption

oil price shocks and trade imbalances abstract this study aims to examine whether a large part of the variability of trade balances and their oil and non oil components is associated with oil price fluctuations the long run causality running from oil price to overall oil and non oil trade balances and their short run dynamics are investigated by applying the toda and yamamoto 1995 ty causality approach and generalized impulse response functions irfs respectively to the monthly data spanning from january 1999 to november 2011 three asian economies that represent three distinct characteristics in terms of oil are chosen and examined malaysia as an oil exporter singapore as an oil refinery and japan as an oil importer the stability of the causality is also checked and the estimated impulse responses across different periods are examined the results have implications for both policy makers and economic modeling of the impact of oil price shocks

on the dynamic effects of oil price shocks a study using industry level data abstract this paper analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on demand and supply in various industries the impulse responses of identified var models indicate that for industries that have a large cost share of oil such as petroleum refinery and industrial chemicals oil price shocks mainly reduce supply in contrast for many other industries with the automobile industry being a particularly important example oil price shocks mainly reduce demand the paper suggests that oil price shocks influence economic activities beyond that explained by direct input cost effects possibly by delaying purchasing decisions of durable goods

structural change and the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks empirical evidence from the united states and japan abstract this paper investigates whether the usa and japan have become better insulated from oil price disturbances due to more favorable structural conditions new production technologies allowing greater energy substitution the development of energy commodity markets reduced energy intensity of production more market oriented energy policies and so on we decompose the influences of oil shocks on real gnp growth and inflation movements in the context of a simultaneous equation model where identification is partly achieved by restricting the long run dynamics we find that oil shocks accounted for a greatly reduced fraction of real gnp growth and inflation variance in both countries primarily because of superior insulation characteristics rather than reduced importance of oil disturbances our estimates suggest that a similar percentage oil price hike would have exerted about one quarter the contractionary effect on real gnp and upward push in inflation in the 1980s compared with the previous two decades jel e31 e32 f30

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

the relationship between oil price shocks and china s macro economy an empirical analysis china postdoctoral science foundation 20090460751 ministry of education of the people s republic of china 09yjc790167 09yja820074 national social science funds 09zd050 08ajy031

modeling the causal linkages between nuclear energy renewable energy and economic growth in developed and developing countries abstract this article investigates the causal relationship between two types of energy variables and economic growth using dynamic simultaneous equation panel data models for 17 developed and developing countries our results indicate that there is a unidirectional causality running from nuclear consumption to economic growth in belgium and spain while a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to nuclear consumption is supported in bulgaria canada netherlands and sweden a bidirectional relationship appears in argentina brazil france pakistan and the usa while no causality exists in finland hungary india japan switzerland and the u k second the results for the second nexus among renewable energy and economic growth show that there is a unidirectional causality running from renewable consumption to economic growth in hungary india japan netherlands and sweden while there exist a unidirectional running from economic growth to renewable consumption in argentina spain and switzerland a bidirectional relationship is supported in belgium bulgaria canada france pakistan and the usa while no causality exists in brazil finland and switzerland third we find the existence of a bidirectional causality between nuclear consumption and economic and a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to renewable energy consumption for the global panel

oil price volatility and stock returns in the g7 economies this study examines the relationship between oil price volatility and stock returns in the g7 economies canada france germany italy japan the uk and the us using monthly data for the period 1970 to 2014 in order to measure oil volatility we consider alternative specifications for oil prices world nominal and real prices we estimate a vector autoregressive model with the following variables interest rates economic activity stock returns and oil price volatility taking into account the structural break in the year 1986 we find a negative response of g7 stock markets to an increase in oil price volatility results also indicate that world oil price volatility is generally more significant for stock markets than the national oil price volatility

oil shock and economic growth in japan a nonlinear approach abstract this paper investigates the relationship between oil price shock and economic growth on the basis of the nonlinear approach developed by hamilton hamilton j 2001 a parametric approach to flexible nonlinear inference econometrica 537 573 we use the approach also in hamilton hamilton j 2003 what is an oil shock journal of econometrics 363 398 of capturing this relationship in japan in a nonlinear model the idea is that negative oil price shocks price increase tend to have larger impact on growth than positive shocks do our empirical evidence confirmed the existence of nonlinearity between these two variables and a flexible nonlinear model is estimated additionally several other form of nonlinearity are estimated and tested

what caused the early millennium slowdown evidence based on vector autoregressions this paper uses a simple var for the usa and euro area to analyse the underlying shocks of the early millennium slowdown i e supply demand monetary policy and oil price shocks the results of two identification strategies are compared one is based on traditional zero restrictions and as an alternative an identification scheme based on more recent sign restrictions is proposed the main conclusion is that the recent slowdown is caused by a combination of several shocks negative aggregate supply and aggregate spending shocks the increase of oil prices in 1999 and restrictive monetary policy in 2000 these shocks are more pronounced in the usa than the euro area the results are somewhat different depending on the identification strategy it is illustrated that traditional zero restrictions can have an influence on the estimated impact of certain shocks copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

liquidity surprise volume and return premia in the oil market abstract we investigate oil market price dynamics in the context of the mixture of distributions hypothesis mdh our econometric model addresses autoregressive properties in returns the impact of surprise volume and conditional oil market return volatility as well as oil market liquidity in the conditional return equation surprise volume as a proxy of private information flow is shown to be unrelated to a set of standard market liquidity proxies oil return heteroscedasticity is found to be partly explained by surprise volume a finding that is consistent with the mdh our findings further show that both oil market liquidity as well as surprise volume shocks are priced in the oil market as such lower levels of lagged market liquidity relate to above average conditional returns surprise volume shocks are associated with lower conditional oil market returns jointly with higher contemporaneous conditional return volatility lagged market liquidity dominates conditional volatility in predicting conditional oil price returns

the economic growth enigma capital labour and useful energy abstract we show that the application of flexible semi parametric statistical techniques enables significant improvements in model fitting of macroeconomic models as applied to the explanation of the past economic growth since 1900 in us uk and japan the new results demonstrate quite conclusively the non linear relationships between capital labour and useful energy with economic growth they also indicate that output elasticities of capital labour and useful energy are extremely variable over time we suggest that these results confirm the economic intuition that growth since the industrial revolution has been driven largely by declining energy costs due to the discovery and exploitation of relatively inexpensive fossil fuel resources implications for the 21st century which are also discussed briefly by exploring the implications of an aceges based scenario of oil production are as follows a the provision of adequate and affordable quantities of useful energy as a pre condition for economic growth and b the design of energy systems as technology incubators for a prosperous 21st century

tests for unit root versus threshold specification with an application to the purchasing power parity relationship we consider modeling the real exchange rate by a stationary three regime self exciting threshold autoregressive setar model with possibly a unit root in the middle regime this representation is consistent with purchasing power parity in the presence of trading costs our main contribution is to provide statistical tools for testing unit root versus a setar first we show that a setar with a unit root in the middle regime is stationary and mixing under reasonable assumptions second we derive analytically the asymptotic distribution of our unit root test under the null using monthly real exchange rate data our test rejects the null of unit root against a threshold process for five european series

cross country differences in the effects of oil shocks abstract we compare the macroeconomic consequences of several types of oil shocks across a set of industrialized countries that are structurally very diverse with respect to the role of oil and other forms of energy in the economy the results crucially depend on the underlying source of the oil price shift when a rise in oil prices is caused by increased global economic activity or a rise in oil specific demand almost all countries experience respectively a temporary increase and transitory decline of real gdp the role of oil and other forms of energy cannot explain the differences in the effects of both shocks across countries in contrast this role is very important to explain asymmetries in the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks whereas net oil and energy importing countries typically face a permanent fall in economic activity the impact is insignificant or even positive in net energy exporting countries in addition countries that improved their net energy position the most over time became less vulnerable to oil supply shocks relative to other countries

the pass through effects of oil price shocks on china s inflation a time varying analysis abstract using a time varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility tvp svar sv model we decompose the structural shocks of oil price fluctuations into four types oil supply shocks global demand shocks domestic demand shocks and oil specific demand shocks we then analyze the time varying effects of these oil price shocks on china s inflation at the import production and consumption stages using monthly data from january 1999 to december 2016 the results show that the pass through effects of the four types of oil price shocks on china s inflation at each stage are time varying and that there are significant differences at different time horizons and points in time the analysis of the variance decomposition shows that the effects of oil price shocks on china s inflation at each stage are incomplete and decrease along the price chain the increase in oil prices driven by oil specific demand shocks is the most important cause of china s inflation at the import and production stages during the full sample period while china s inflation at the consumption stage is mainly affected by domestic demand shocks in addition the inflationary effects of oil price shocks have been dramatically weaker since the international financial crisis compared with before the crisis

review of key international demand elasticities for major industrializing economies abstract this paper conducts a selective review of various estimates for energy demand responses focused specially upon lower income industrializing economies rather than richer mature nations it emphasizes recent trends from empirical studies that have been published after 2000 emphasis is placed on the five major emerging or transitional economies in brazil china india mexico and russia although other important nations like chile and south korea are also discussed when studies are available the review focuses attention on the long run responses to changes in prices and income after capital stock turnover has been completed the terminology often refers to elasticities or the percentage change in energy use divided by the percentage change in price or income holding constant all other factors that could influence energy use decisions estimates cover petroleum products natural gas and electricity although the available studies often ignore coal they also include the economy wide impacts real gdp to price changes most studies have focused upon household and transportation use of liquid fuels many fewer studies have investigated fuels used by industry or commerce or for electric generation based upon the available estimates price and income elasticities for liquid fuels are generally less than one unity for many countries and sectors except for the long run income effect for transportation purposes which can range widely by country between 0 24 and 1 75 while averaging 0 94 for all countries

the impacts of nonferrous metal price shocks on the macroeconomy in china from the perspective of resource security abstract in recent years the price of international nonferrous metals has undergone drastic fluctuations which could exert significant shock effects on macroeconomic variables based on the perspective of resource security this paper reveals the relationship between the nonferrous metal price shocks and china s macroeconomic variables by establishing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model embedded with nonferrous metal consumption and means of production blocks the model is based on the optimal decision making behaviours of three departments that satisfy multiple constraints to realize optimal policy making furthermore the structural vector autoregression svar method is applied to verify the shock effects of nonferrous metal price and obtain more robust results the bayesian results show that there is consistency among nonferrous metal price shocks consumer reference shocks wage bonus shocks technical shocks and price adjusted shocks the impulse response function results indicate that the stimulation of an international nonferrous metal price increase would have significant positive impacts on the macroeconomic variables of investment money supply consumption and total output but negative effects on labour demand in addition the impulse responses of wage levels and the rate of inflation to nonferrous metal price shocks present obvious lagging effects

monetary policy trade offs with a dominant oil producer we model oil production decisions from optimizing principles rather than assuming exogenous oil price shocks and show that the presence of a dominant oil producer leads to sizable static and dynamic distortions of the production process under our calibration the static distortion costs the u s around 1 6 of gdp per year in addition the dynamic distortion reflected in inefficient fluctuations of the oil price markup generates a trade off between stabilizing inflation and aligning output with its efficient level our model is a step away from discussing the effects of exogenous oil price variations and toward analyzing the implications of the underlying shocks that cause oil prices to change in the first place

on energy consumption and gdp studies a meta analysis of the last two decades abstract the relationship between energy consumption and gdp growth has been intensely examined in multiple frameworks set by various methods and countries this paper is a meta analysis of 51 studies published in the last two decades with worldwide data since 1949 on the relationship between energy consumption and gdp growth the aim is to systemize some of the factors that cause the variation of results in these studies our results yield evidence that the long run elasticity of gdp growth with respect to energy consumption is not independent of the method employed for cointegration the data type and the inclusion of variables such as the price level or capital in the cointegration equation also 1 increase in capital increases the elasticity of gdp with respect to energy consumption by 0 85

non fossil fuel energy usage and economic growth in india a study on non linear cointegration asymmetry and causality abstract this study evaluates the potential impact of promoting non fossil fuel energy on india s economic growth in a regime based non linear asymmetric framework the empirical outcomes affirm regime shift and asymmetric cointegrating links of the non fossil fuel energy usage represented by combustible renewables waste crew and alternative nuclear energy anen with the gross domestic product gdp the study establishes the existence of threshold cointegration between crew and gdp the causal links between crew and gdp are regime variant and asymmetric whereas the dynamics between anen and gdp are proven to be asymmetric and regime invariant crew and gdp supports a feedback hypothesis in a normal regime and a conservation hypothesis in a rare regime the asymmetric causality between crew and gdp validates an inverse feedback hypothesis and a negative growth hypothesis a negative growth hypothesis is also ascertained between anen and gdp the empirical findings convey meaningful insights for government and policymakers

asymmetric effects of oil prices and exchange rates on china s industrial prices abstract this paper explores the impacts of positive and negative changes in crude oil price and exchange rate variables on raw material procurement prices and product ex factory prices of china s industrial enterprises we run the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag nardl model for the full sample from january 2000 to june 2019 and find the existence of the cointegrating relationships and the asymmetries of the long run effects from positive and negative changes in oil price and exchange rate variables then we run the ols and quantile regressions for the two subsamples through the analysis of the estimates in different quantities in the latter model we obtain rich and novel findings the main findings include the inconsistency between the practice of oil price and exchange rate transmissions in china and the usual theoretical explanations and the active roles of china s oil product mechanism and exchange rate policy reforms in mitigating transmission distortions in addition we also find other asymmetries such as the asymmetric effects in different locations of dependent variable s conditional distribution and the different effects on raw material prices and product ex factory prices from the same independent variables

the economic effects of energy price shocks large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the u s economy since the 1970s turmoil in the middle east rising energy prices in the u s and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic performance this paper addresses a number of the key issues in this debate what are energy price shocks and where do they come from how responsive is energy demand to changes in energy prices how do consumers expenditure patterns evolve in response to energy price shocks how do energy price shocks affect u s real output inflation and stock prices why do energy price increases seem to cause recessions but energy price decreases do not seem to cause expansions why has there been a surge in the price of oil in recent years why has this new energy price shock not caused a recession so far have the effects of energy price shocks waned since the 1980s and if so why as the paper demonstrates it is critical to account for the endogeneity of energy prices and to differentiate between the effects of demand and supply shocks in energy markets when answering these questions

estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth abstract using a new methodology this paper measures the direct and indirect effects of oil prices on gdp growth of 12 economies because of the indirect effect which is transmitted through a trade matrix even the net oil exporters like indonesia and malaysia cannot escape the negative influence of high oil prices

a meta analysis investigation of the direction of the energy gdp causal relationship implications for the growth degrowth dialogue abstract the complex relation between energy use and the economic process has long attracted attention issues such as the scarcity of energy resources energy theory of value degrowth and a growth approaches are closely related to the relationship between energy and development the present study traces the implications of the energy gdp causality dialogue for the context of the growth degrowth debate where the energy development link plays a decisive role in that context the present research investigates the possible existence of a fundamental macro direction of causality between energy use and economic growth that is not influenced by study specific characteristics and events towards this objective we perform a meta analysis that takes into account 158 studies on causality between energy and gdp covering the period 1978 2011 this is the first time to our knowledge that meta analysis has been applied to investigate the direction of the energy and gdp causal relationship the meta analysis results neither support the existence of a fundamental macro direction nor the so called neutrality hypothesis e gdp in the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

economic welfare impacts from renewable energy consumption the china experience over the last years renewable energy sources have increased their share on electricity generation of china due to environmental and security of supply concerns in this work author assesses the role of both the amount and share of renewable energy consumption in economic welfare using cobb douglas type production functions this assessment is carried out by multivariate ols and spss software for china from 1978 to 2008 results indicate that a 1 increase in renewable energy consumption rec increases real gdp by 0 120 gdp per capita by 0 162 per capita annual income of rural households by 0 444 and per capita annual income of urban households by 0 368 respectively the impact of renewable energy consumption share srec on economic welfare is insignificant and an increasing share of rec negatively affects economic welfare growth to a certain extent in this paper the cost structural demand accounting mechanism and policy reasons of renewable energy development are interpreted marginal effects analysis show that the shape of sound and robust renewable energy institutions and policies would matter for increasing the standards of economic welfare in the context of speeding up renewable energy development and increasing share of renewable energy consumption especially the goal oriented policy refinement should be addressed efficiently in improvement households income while increasing share of renewable energy consumption c 2011 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

time varying macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks a new measure for china abstract in this paper we examine the effects of world energy price shocks on china s macroeconomy over the past two decades we begin by showing that the use of oil prices as a proxy for more general energy price dynamics is not appropriate for the case of china having established this fact we propose a new energy price index which accurately reflects the structure of china s energy expenditure shares and intertemporal fluctuations in international energy prices we then employ a sufficiently rich set of time varying vars identified through a new set of agnostic sign restrictions to estimate the effects of energy price shocks on china s macroeconomy our main result is that positive energy price shocks generate statistically significant reductions in real gdp growth and increases in inflation interestingly both the sets of responses have consistently declined over the sample period next the interest rate responses are found to be consistently positive over the sample period given the aforementioned stagflation result this suggests that the pboc is more focused on inflation stabilization as compared to facilitating output growth all presented results are shown to be robust under both official national data and those developed by chang et al 2015 thus strengthening our conclusion that energy price shocks have significant time varying effects on china s macroeconomy

energy price regulatory price distortion and economic growth a case study of china energy prices are often distorted by government control which is justified on the grounds that such control will help mitigate the negative impact of price volatility from oil imports and thus positively affect the domestic economy in this paper we show in a two sector growth model that regulatory price distortion can negatively affect the economy and then based on the model we empirically estimate the impact of the price distortion on output growth in china using monthly time series data from 2005m1 to 2012m12 in contrast to the usual argument for regulatory control to mitigate price volatility we find that regulatory price distortion negatively affects output growth in china during both the short and long term because it is robust to different measures of output and price distortion hence the argument that using price regulation to protect economic growth is undermined and subsequently this study lends its support to energy price deregulation a market oriented energy price regime may improve the resilience of the domestic economy to global oil price shocks

dynamic co movement between oil and stock markets in oil importing and oil exporting countries two types of wavelet analysis abstract this study explores the dynamic co movement between oil and six stock markets china india japan saudi arabia russia and canada by using two types of wavelet analysis wavelet multi scale decomposition and wavelet coherence the main empirical results are as follows 1 maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform analysis shows that there are feedback relationships between the price movement of oil and stock markets in all six countries in the wavelet based decomposition at the d4 d5 and d6 scales 2 the pairs of oil and stock returns show high overall co movement at the 16 to 128 week scale based on continuous wavelet transform analysis the wavelet coherence and phase plots show that the pairs of oil and oil importing stock market returns have high co movement for the period between 2007 and 2012 especially during the global financial crisis of 2008 in addition the wavelet coherence and phase plots show that the pairs of oil and oil exporting stock market returns have high co movement from 2007 to 2017 3 oil price returns lead the stock returns of saudi arabia russia and canada from 2007 to 2017 at the 16 to 128 week scale the stock prices are more influenced by oil prices in oil exporting countries than in oil importing countries this evidence implies that the economic structure of oil exporting countries depends strongly on crude oil production 4 from the results of the wavelet based granger causality test there is a lead lag causality linkage in which the oil price leads stock market indices from 27 to 30 weeks 189 210 days the implications of these findings are discussed

the macroeconomics outcome of oil shocks in the small eurozone economies in this work we provide an analysis over the period 1999 2015 of the effects of oil shocks on prices and gdp in a group of small euro area economies the group includes austria belgium finland greece ireland italy netherlands portugal and spain we use the structural near var methodology and are thus able to model the joint interaction of area wide macroeconomic variables and national variables we find that under the emu oil price shocks have been important drivers of business cycle fluctuations in almost all these countries moreover an increase in oil prices produces significant recessionary effects in all the countries included in the investigation thus although there are different sizes in the responses of output in the investigated countries our main conclusion is that oil prices still matter for european economies