the consequences of doubling the minimum wage the case of indonesia minimum wages in indonesia were tripled in nominal terms and doubled in real terms in the first half of the 1990s the author evaluates the effects of this hike on wage earnings wage employment and investment after describing indonesia s minimum wage policy and surveying the literature on the effects of minimum wages the author applies relatively simple statistical tools to individual and aggregate data he visually inspects the wage distribution for full time laborers and employees to assess the extent of compliance with minimum wages he uses regression analysis involving minimalist specifications and data aggregated by province to estimate the elasticity of wage earnings wage employment and investment with respect to the minimum wage a wide dispersion in the ratio of minimum wages to labor productivity across the 27 indonesian provinces can be used to identify the effects of the minimum wage the results suggest that minimum wages have a moderate effect on outcomes in indonesia s labor market taken at face value these results imply that doubling the minimum wage led to a 10 percent increase in average wages a 2 percent decrease in wage employment and a 5 percent decrease in investment the disemployment effect appears to be considerable in small firms but employment may actually increase in large firms

indeterminacy of stationary equilibrium in stochastic overlapping generations models abstract in this paper we consider the local uniqueness properties of stationary rational expectations equilibria ree in a stochastic overlapping generations olg model it is known that in non stochastic olg models steady state equilibria are locally isolated although there may exist indeterminate non stationary perfect foresight equilibria we show by construction that in the stochastic model even stationary equilibrium may be indeterminate we also show that this result is robust in the sense that there exists a non empty open set of economies for which the result is true

the pricing of options on assets with stochastic volatilities one option pricing problem that has hitherto been unsolved is the pricing of a european call on an asset that has a stochastic volatility this paper examines this problem the option price is determined in series form for the case in which the stochastic volatility is independent of the stock price numerical solutions are also produced for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price it is found that the black scholes price frequently overprices options and that the degree of overpricing increases with the time to maturity one option pricing problem that has hitherto remained unsolved is the pricing of a european call on a stock that has a stochastic volatility from the work of merton 12 garman 6 and cox ingersoll and ross 3 the differential equation that the option must satisfy is known the solution of this differential equation is independent of risk preferences if a the volatility is a traded asset or b the volatility is uncorrelated with aggregate consumption if either of these conditions holds the risk neutral valuation arguments of cox and ross 4 can be used in a straightfoward way this paper produces a solution in series form for the situation in which the stock price is instantaneously uncorrelated with the volatility we do not assume that the volatility is a traded asset also a constant correlation between the instantaneous rate of change of the volatility and the rate of change of aggregate consumption can be accommodated the option price is lower than the blackscholes b s 1 price when the option is close to being at the money and higher when it is deep in or deep out of the money the exercise prices for which overpricing by b s takes place are within about ten percent of the security price this is the range of exercise prices over which most option trading takes place so we may in general expect the b s price to overprice options this effect is exaggerated as the time to maturity increases one of the most surprising implications of this is that if the b s equation is used to determine the implied volatility of a near the money option the longer the time to maturity the lower the implied volatility numerical solutions for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price are also examined the stochastic volatility problem has been examined by merton 13 geske 7 johnson 10 johnson and shanno 11 eisenberg 5 wiggins 16 and

minimum wages and economic outcomes in europe abstract in this paper we review the arguments and consider evidence on the economic effects of minimum wages in europe we begin by outlining the systems of minimum wages that currently operate in european countries and then consider some evidence on the economic effects of minimum wages in four countries france the netherlands spain and the united kingdom we consider the relation between minimum wage floors and two economic outcomes employment and the distribution of income in working households we find little evidence that minimum wages have a bad effect on jobs and some evidence that they have an equalising impact on the distribution of income among families with someone in work

trends and volatilities in foreign patents registered in the usa this study analyses the patent trends and volatilities for the top 12 foreign patenting countries in the us market from 1975 to 1997 japan is ranked first in terms of foreign patents registered in the usa followed by germany patent registrations from each of these countries have increased steadily over time but at different rates using monthly time series data for 1975 1997 the time varying volatility of australian japanese and german patents registered in the usa is examined in detail the asymmetric ar 1 gjr 1 1 model is found to be suitable for australia and japan while the best fitting model for germany is the symmetric ar 1 garch 1 1 model

the minimum wage as a redistributive tool most analyses of the minimum wage focus on its unintended employment consequences the goal of a minimum wage is not of course to reduce employment but to redistribute earnings to low paid workers under what conditions can a minimum accomplish this are those conditions met in economies which otherwise rely extensively on markets to set wages such as the united states which in i994 rejected mandating health benefits that would have effectively raised the minimum or the united kingdom where in i995 the labour party promised a national minimum upon election who pays for the redistribution who benefits the redistributive effects of a minimum wage depend on the labour market and redistributive system in which it operates on the level of the minimum and on its enforcement at best an effective minimum wage will shift the earnings distribution in favour of the low paid and buttress the bottom tiers of the distribution from erosion at worst minimum wages reduce the share of earnings going to the low paid by displacing many from employment neither outcome is certain so that enacting a minimum is a risky but potentially profitable investment in redistribution it is the balancing of risk against gain that makes a minimum so controversial until the i980s i99os competitive labour markets in the united states and united kingdom produced rising real earnings for the low paid and falling earnings inequality so the risk of enacting a national minimum united kingdom or of raising substantially the national minimum united states seemed unnecessary why interfere with the competitive market when it produces socially desirable trends in earnings albeit a bit slower than one might accomplish with a legislated minimum two decades of falling real wages for lower decile workers in the united states and of rising earnings inequality in the united kingdom1 have however put the minimum back in play the job market is not doing much for lower paid workers in the united kingdom virtually all social groups accept the need for some redistribution though they differ on the best way to accomplish such in the united states pressures for tax cuts can be interpreted as a way for employees to gain real wage increases unavailable through the market the consensus favouring redistribution through the earned income tax credit disappeared in the midi 990s rush to reduce federal budget deficits this paper takes as its operating premise the goal of redistributing earnings

effects of the minimum wage on the employment status of youths an update the large decline in the relative value of the minimum wage during the 1980s makes that period a valuable one for identifying the impact of variation in the minimum wage on youth employment this study produces the robust finding that when the experience of the 1980s is included a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage is estimated to reduce teen employment by less than 1 percent the lower end of the range of previous estimates because this small employment effect is offset by a labor force withdrawal effect the study finds no discernible effect on measured unemployment the study also finds no apparent effect of the minimum wage on the employment of young adults aged 20 24

new perspectives on public finance recent achievements and future challenges abstract the advances in the economics of the public sector during the past quarter century have been as pronounced as in any field within economics public finance has become a rigorous branch of applied microeconomics incorporating the best thinking and most advanced tools of both theoretical economics and econometrics in the remarks below i will focus on a few key areas in applied and theoretical tax and expenditure policy drawing both upon the academic work of myself and others and my experiences in the policy arena both as chairman of the council of economic advisers and as chief economist of the world bank i shall address both the questions of what we have learned in the past few decades as well as the questions where further research is needed

using regional variation in wages to measure the effects of the federal minimum wage the imposition of a national minimum wage standard provides a natural experiment in which the treatment effect varies across states depending on the fraction of workers initially earning less than the new minimum the author exploits this fact to evaluate the effect of the april 1990 increase in the federal minimum wage on teenagers wages employment and school enrollment comparisons of grouped and individual state data confirm that the rise in the minimum wage increased teenagers wages there is no evidence of corresponding losses in teenage employment or changes in teenage school enrollment

pricing hang seng index options around the asian financial crisis a garch approach abstract this paper investigates how well the hang seng index options the most important class of option contracts traded in hong kong are priced using the garch approach we calibrated the garch parameters using the call and put option data and used them to price options in the subsequent weeks we found the garch model performs very well in comparison with the black scholes model even after allowing for a smile smirk adjustment its superior performance was also evident both before and during the recent asian financial turmoil

employment effects of minimum and subminimum wages panel data on state minimum wage laws using panel data on state minimum wage laws and economic conditions for the years 1973 89 the authors reevaluate existing evidence on the effects of a minimum wage on employment their estimates indicate that a 10 increase in the minimum wage causes a decline of 1 2 in employment among teenagers and a decline of 1 5 2 in employment for young adults similar to the ranges suggested by earlier time series studies the authors also find evidence that youth subminimum wage provisions enacted by state legislatures moderate the disemployment effects of minimum wages on teenagers

empirical of the taiwan stock index option price forecasting model applied artificial neural network this work presents a novel neural network model for forecasting option prices using past volatilities and other options market factors out of different approaches to estimating volatility in the option pricing model this study uses backpropagation neural network to forecast prices for taiwanese stock index options the ability to develop accurate forecasts of grey prediction volatility enables practitioners to establish an appropriate hedging strategy at in the money option

the predictive power of implied volatility evidence from 35 futures markets abstract using data from 35 futures options markets from eight separate exchanges we test how well the implied volatilities ivs embedded in option prices predict subsequently realized volatility rv in the underlying futures we find that for this broad array of futures options iv performs well in a relative sense for a large majority of the commodities studied the implieds outperform historical volatility hv as a predictor of the subsequently rv in the underlying futures prices over the remaining life of the option indeed in most markets examined regardless of whether it is modeled as a simple moving average or in a garch framework hv contains no economically significant predictive information beyond what is already incorporated in iv these findings add to previous research that has focused on currency and crude oil futures by extending the analysis into a very broad array of contracts and exchanges our results are consistent with the hypothesis that futures options markets in general with their minimal trading frictions are efficient

how effective is the minimum wage at supporting the poor this study investigates the antipoverty efficacy of minimum wage policies proponents of these policies contend that employment impacts are negligible and suggest that consumers pay for higher labor costs through imperceptible increases in goods prices adopting this empirical scenario the analysis demonstrates that an increase in the national minimum wage produces a value added tax effect on consumer prices that is more regressive than a typical state sales tax and allocates benefits as higher earnings nearly evenly across the income distribution these income transfer outcomes sharply contradict portraying an increase in the minimum wage as an antipoverty initiative

a comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks an application to euro inflation and euro divisia linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data in this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non linear models the well established and widely used univariate arima and multivariate var models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks nn are used as non linear forecasting models it is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the nn building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the nn it is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow divisia relative to the traditional simple sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework results obtained suggest that non linear models provide better within sample and out of sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them the divisia index also outperforms the simple sum index when evaluated in a non linear framework 2005 taylor francis group ltd

minimum wage policy and employment effects evidence from brazil the international literature on minimum wages greatly lacks empirical evidence for latin america in brazil not only are minimum wage increases large and frequent but they also have been used as both a social policy and an anti inflationary policy this paper estimates the effects of the minimum wage on wages and employment using panel data techniques and brazilian monthly household data from 1982 to 2000 a number of conceptual and identification questions are discussed for example the paper summarizes various strategies on how best to measure the effect of a constant national minimum wage presenting a menu of minimum wage variables that are then used to estimate wage and employment effects the paper also uses an employment decomposition that separately estimates the effect of the minimum wage on hours per worker and on the number of jobs robust results indicate that an increase in the minimum wage strongly compresses the wages distribution with small adverse effects on employment

volatility and trading activity in short sterling futures the objective of the present study is to examine the interplay between information trading volume and volatility in short sterling futures more specifically the paper concentrates on the role of liquidity variables as conduits of information arrival and whether such variables could be an exclusive platform of the market s information set the analytical framework employed to examine the interaction among those factors is based on the conditional volatility family of techniques the approach is well suited as it naturally leads to examine the interaction among volatility and sources of information in an attempt to identify proxies of information and their role in determining volatility four main conclusions have emerged first the empirical findings suggest that both volume and open interest exhibit a positive correlation with volatility second based on the current methodology one can observe the persistence and importance of garch effects after accounting for liquidity third the liquidity varia

are exchange rates determined by macroeconomic factors in this study we consider 15 countries and examine the relationship between exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic volatility we show that in general empirical support for the existence of a link between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals is very weak and that other factors are more important in casting light on the behaviour of exchange rates in particular we investigate the links between risk premia and exchange rates across our sample of countries using arch and garch techniques we illustrate that despite the targeting policies of the erm risk premia are evident for the majority of countries in our sample

a non linear filtering approach to stochastic volatility models with an application to daily stock returns this paper develops a new model for the analysis of stochastic volatility sv models since volatility is a latent variable in sv models it is difficult to evaluate the exact likelihood in this paper a non linear filter which yields the exact likelihood of sv models is employed solving a series of integrals in this filter by piecewise linear approximations with randomly chosen nodes produces the likelihood which is maximized to obtain estimates of the sv parameters a smoothing algorithm for volatility estimation is also constructed monte carlo experiments show that the method performs well with respect to both parameter estimates and volatility estimates we illustrate our model by analysing daily stock returns on the tokyo stock exchange since the method can be applied to more general models the sv model is extended so that several characteristics of daily stock returns are allowed and this more general model is also estimated copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

minimum wages and the demand for labor i formulate measures of the effective minimum wage based on broad definitions of the labor costs that face employers and use these measures in reestimating some simple equations relating the relative employment of youths and adults to the u s minimum wage using aggregate data for 1954 78 i then ground the model more closely in the theory of factor demand first by adding the relative wages of youths and adults to the equation describing their relative employment and then by specifying a complete system of demand equations for these two types of labor teen employment responds quite robustly to changes in the effective minimum in these specifications with an elasticity of 0 1 a translog cost function defined over young workers adults and capital shows that the effective minimum wage reduces employers ability to substitute other factors for young workers using both sets of results i find that a subminimum wage for youths would have increased their employment with at most a small loss of jobs among adults this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

employment unemployment and the minimum wage a causality model some empirical work concerning the minimum wage tends to confirm the negative impacts of the law on employment but much of that work leaves the existence and size of the fiat s effects uncertain furthermore many of the theoretical and statistical advances of the past 1 decades have yet to be incorporated into the analysis of the law s effects we apply time series and causality testing analysis developed from the transfer function to the minimum wage employment unemployment series we find some evidence that the minimum wage has lowered the employment of white male teenagers age 16 19 and nonwhite males over the age of 20 however these impacts are small no other significant employment impacts are discovered and no significant unemployment impacts are found additional study of the law s impacts using advanced statistical methods is required

product market evidence on the employment effects of the minimum wage we infer the employment response to a minimum wage change by calibrating a model of employment for the restaurant industry whereas perfect competition implies that employment falls and prices rise after a minimum wage increase the monopsony model potentially implies the opposite we show that estimated price responses are consistent with the competitive model we place fairly tight bounds on the employment response with the most plausible parameter values suggesting that a 10 increase in the minimum wage lowers low skill employment by 2 4 and total restaurant employment by 1 3

the effect of minimum wage laws on the distribution of employment theory and evidence abstract recent research casts doubt on the view that minimum wage laws reduce employment we show that in a simple model of bilateral search with heterogeneous workers a minimum wage law increases employment however the increased competition from higher productivity workers makes lower productivity workers worse off without making higher productivity workers better off we provide evidence that minimum wage laws shift employment from adults to teenagers and students this raises concerns about the distributional consequences of minimum wages even when they increase employment

anticipated effects of the minimum wage on prices there is little empirical evidence on the effect of minimum wage increases on prices particularly for developing countries this paper provides estimates of this effect using monthly brazilian household and firm data over 18 years as minimum wage increases in brazil sare large and frequent they have a potentially important impact on aggregate prices rational agents in anticipation of such price effects may take minimum wage increases as a signal for future price and wage bargains we find that the minimum wage raises overall prices not only on the month of the increase but also in the two months prior to the change as well as after the change

minimum wage increase and firm productivity evidence from the restaurant industry abstract the purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of increasing the federal minimum wage on productivity in the restaurant industry based on the equity theory and fair wage hypothesis this study empirically investigated the relationship between the federal minimum wage and restaurant productivity the results revealed that increasing the federal minimum wage immediately enhances restaurant productivity for up to two years the results further indicated that both full service restaurants and low wage restaurants benefit from the positive effect while there is no significant effect on limited service restaurants and high wage restaurants the results suggest that restaurants should cope with minimum wage policies by focusing on implementing initiatives that can maximize enhanced work efforts and productivity more importantly the results further highlight that restaurants should consider either continuously raising wage levels or raising them every two years to consistently obtain enhanced motivation and productivity

the limitation of monotonicity property of option prices an empirical evidence many option pricing models are based on the assumption that the underlying asset price follows one dimensional diffusion process an alternative approach is to test the properties that should hold for all models based on a given stochastic process for the underlying asset following perignon 2006 we test the empirical validity of the monotonicity property for option prices by collecting all transaction data from 1 july 2006 to 31 december 2006 for option contracts traded on the taiwan futures exchange taifex we find that sampled intraday option prices violate the monotonicity property between 29 97 and 57 of the time and that call and put prices often increase or decrease together we also find evidence to show that the frequent violations of the monotonicity property are to a large extent attributable to microstructure effects and that they arise from rational trading tactics

eliminating sunspot effects in overlapping generations models abstract we reappraise the robustness of sunspot effects in overlapping generations models azariadis s well known example economies have stationary deterministic fundamentals preferences technologies and endowments yet sunspots affect multiple equilibria and those equilibria are robust to common perturbations of underlying fundamentals however we find that judiciously splitting each of azariadis s goods into close substitutes eliminates sunspot effects and the remaining equilibrium is unique and deterministic forecasting thus becomes conclusive and there is no longer a role for government policy to stabilize excess volatility

the minimum wage and teenage employment a reanalysis with attention to serial correlation and seasonality we examine the effects of minimum wage legislation in canada over the period 1975 93 for teenagers we find that a 10 increase in the minimum wage is associated with roughly a 2 5 decrease in employment we also find that this result is driven by low

is the time series evidence on minimum wage effects contaminated by publication bias i introduction economists often express concern that the journal review process has the unintended effect of biasing published empirical results towards the rejection of economic null hypotheses in favor of statistically significant results that are consistent with economists priors or predictions in other disciplines meta analyses of published papers generally focusing on clinical trials provide some evidence consistent with a bias towards publication of significant results see for example berlin et al 1989 under the reasonable presumption that the parameter of interest such as the effect of a drug should be constant across studies 1 in economics however the parameters of statistical models are more likely to vary across samples especially when the samples cover different time periods because of changed behavior e g lucas 1976 model misspecification or measurement changes the possibility of parameter instability makes it difficult to apply standard meta analysis techniques to the economics literature because these techniques draw inferences regarding publication bias from changes in estimates across samples 2 in this paper we suggest a method of testing the null hypothesis of no publication bias when parameters are changing in particular if there is a specification that is plausibly free of selective specification search then that specification can be used as a benchmark with which to compare changes in estimates across the published studies a statistical test for whether the changes in estimates across the published studies are significantly different from those for the benchmark specification estimated over different sample periods can then be used to assess the evidence of publication bias in the published studies under consideration we apply our approach to the question of whether there is evidence of publication bias in the time series literature on the employment effects of the minimum wage we choose this application for three reasons first the economic impact of the minimum wage is an important issue for policy second widespread interest in this question has generated sufficient research to make the application of meta analysis techniques feasible third it is the topic of one of the rare applications of meta analysis in economics card and krueger 1995a b we show that when we recognize the special complexities associated with meta analysis of studies using time series data the evidence that the minimum wage literature is contaminated by publication bias is much weaker ii evidence of publication bias the approach used by card and krueger to test for publication bias in the minimum wage literature is relatively straightforward first in the absence of publication bias and if parameters are stable then estimated t statistics for employment effects of minimum wages should rise as the sample period is extended more precisely the log of the absolute t ratios should rise one for one with the log of the square root of the degrees of freedom this is closely related to the approach of berlin et al 1989 who test for publication bias in research from clinical trials by asking whether the estimated magnitudes of the effects in published studies are negatively related to sample sizes the intuition is that if only significant results get published the estimated effect will be bigger when it is based on a smaller sample second a tendency for published t statistics for employment effects to be clustered around two can be interpreted as an indication of publication bias using these techniques card and krueger report evidence that is consistent with publication bias in the minimum wage literature focusing on the existing time series studies that use quarterly data they first report that a regression of the log of the absolute t statistics for the estimated minimum wage effects from these studies on the log of the square root of the degrees of freedom yields a negative coefficient estimate rather than the positive coefficient of one implied by the null hypothesis of no publication bias

a general model for short term interest rates a general one factor model for short term interest rates is proposed besides the long memory fractionally integrated mean process the model also consists of a power function of the interest rate as well as the garch effect in the conditional variance the estimation results show that while there is no evidence for fractional integration in the mean beyond the well known martingale property both the power function of the interest rate and the garch effect but not the arch effect are highly significant in the formation of the conditional variance test results also confirm a structure change in october 1979 due to the shift in the federal reserve monetary policy

do minimum wages affect non wage job attributes evidence on fringe benefits although many studies have tested neoclassical labor market theory s prediction that employers will react to binding minimum wages by reducing employment levels much less empirical research has explored the possibility that employers also respond to minimum wages by adjusting non wage components of the job such as fringe benefits job safety and access to training using current population survey data for 1979 2000 this study investigates the effect of minimum wage legislation on the provision of employer health insurance and employer pension coverage the authors examine effects of state and federal variation in minimum wages on groups likely to be affected by the minimum wage and compare these effects to estimates found for groups unlikely to be affected whether the analysis uses only state level variation or federal and state variation in minimum wages the results indicate no discernible effect of the minimum wage on fringe benefit generosity for low skill workers

minimum wages and poverty will a 9 50 federal minimum wage really help the working poor using data drawn from the march current population survey we find that state and federal minimum wage increases between 2003 and 2007 had no effect on state poverty rates when we then simulate the effects of a proposed federal minimum wage increase from 7 25 to 9 50 per hour we find that such an increase will be even more poorly targeted to the working poor than was the last federal increase from 5 15 to 7 25 per hour assuming no negative employment effects only 11 3 of workers who will gain live in poor households compared to 15 8 from the last increase when we allow for negative employment effects we find that the working poor face a disproportionate share of the job losses our results suggest that raising the federal minimum wage continues to be an inadequate way to help the working poor

agricultural trade and the gatt wto does membership make a difference recent empirical studies have estimated the trade flow effect of membership in the world trade organization wto and its predecessor the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt one important although largely untested conclusion from this literature is that the gatt wto works well if we ignore trade in agriculture one of the institutions seemingly apparent failures this article investigates this conclusion using a large panel of agricultural and non agricultural trade flows the results are impressive the multilateral institution has delivered significant positive effects on members agricultural trade despite its sensitive nature and the reluctance of members to undertake serious reform these findings are robust to various slices of the data and recent advances in the specification and estimation of the gravity equation to account for sample selection issues and the extensive margin of trade copyright 2012 oxford university press

the measurement of technical efficiency a neural network approach the main purpose of this paper is to provide an introduction to artificial neural networks anns and to review their applications in efficiency analysis finally a comparison of efficiency techniques in a non linear production function is carried out the results suggest that anns are a promising alternative to traditional approaches econometric models and non parametric methods such as data envelopment analysis to fit production functions and measure efficiency under non linear contexts

who benefits from a minimum wage increase this paper addresses the question of how a minimum wage increase affects the wages of low wage workers most studies assume that there is a simple mechanical increase in the wage for workers earning a wage between the old and the new minimum wage with some studies allowing for spillovers to workers with wages just above this range rather than assume that the wages of these workers would have remained constant this paper estimates how a minimum wage increase impacts a low wage worker s wage relative to the wage the worker would have if there had been no minimum wage increase the method allows for the effect to depend not only on the initial wage of the worker but also nonlinearly on the size of the minimum wage increase using current population survey data from 2005 to 2008 a period with a large number of u s state level minimum wage increases this paper finds that low wage workers who experience a small increase in the minimum wage tend to have lower wage growth than if there had been no minimum wage increase a large increase to the minimum wage increases the wages of not only those workers who previously earned less than the new minimum wage but also spill over to workers with moderately higher wages finally this paper finds little evidence of heterogeneity in the effect by age gender income and race

stationary data and the effect of the minimum wage on teenage employment one of the interesting features of time series work on the effect of the minimum wage is that the problem of possible spurious regressions when data may be non stationary has been largely ignored it is shown that this is potentially a serious problem it is found that although the teenage employment to population ratio is stationary the independent variables in time series regression equations are non stationary substitution of the stationary first differences of the independent variables in the regression equations for their levels is found to greatly undermine the estimated influence of the minimum wage on the employment to population ratio estimates of the effect of the minimum wage are found to be only marginally more significant when seasonal differencing of the dependent variable and an arch estimation technique are employed

regional effects of the minimum wage on teenage employment previous research on the minimum wage using national level data concludes that the minimum wage has a small effect on the employment of teenagers this paper provides new evidence that there is substantial regional variation in the effect of the minimum wage and in some regions it has a decidedly larger impact on teenage employment than previously measured estimates from a panel data set of the us states suggest that the minimum wage may cause almost a 7 reduction in teenage employment in some regions this results is robust to different econometric specifications and holds whether a relative or real specification of the estimating equation is used

the state federal dichotomy in the effects of minimum wages on teenage employment in the united states abstract for the period 1984 1997 we find that state level minimum wage hikes had no negative employment impact whereas federal hikes did this dichotomy may account for the differences between the results of the new economics of the minimum wage and time series studies

virtual determinacy in overlapping generations models we reappraise the significance and robustness of indeterminacy in overlapping generations models in any of gale s example economies with an equilibrium that is not locally unique for instance perturbing the economy by judiciously splitting each of gale s goods into two close substitutes restricts that indeterminacy to each period s allocation of consumption between those substitutes in particular prices interest rates the commodity value of nominal savings including money and utility levels become determinate any indeterminacy of equilibrium consumption in the perturbed economy is thus insignificant to consumers and some forecasting and comparative statics policy exercises become possible

neural network models for inflation forecasting an appraisal we assess the power of diverse artificial neural network ann models as forecasting tools for monthly inflation rates for 28 organization for economic co operation and development oecd countries in the context of short out of sample forecasting horizon we find that on average the ann models were a superior predictor for inflation for 45 while the autoregressive model of order one ar1 model performed better for 23 of the countries furthermore we develop arithmetic combinations of several ann models and find that these may also serve as credible tools for forecasting inflation