the environmental kuznets curve environmental protection policy and income distribution abstract the effect of economic growth on pollution emissions differs substantially among high income countries i address this issue by analyzing public environmental policy decisions individual heterogeneity relative income effect and the political framework in which policy decisions are taken determine the emergence of the downward sloping segment of the environmental kuznets curve ekc income inequality produces a gap between the country s ability to pay for environmental protection and a country s willingness to pay i test this result by using oecd data on public r d expenditure for environmental protection the conclusion is that contrary to the ek hypothesis moments of the income distribution function other than the mean may be important for the emergence of a virtuous path of sustainable growth in high income countries

land consumption and income in italy a case of inverted ekc abstract the ekc hypothesis postulates that the relationship between economic growth and environmental deterioration is represented by an inverted u shaped function its validity has been questioned from several perspectives and a need for public policies has been expressed this paper uses a heuristic approach to analyze the relationship between per capita income and land consumption as proxied by the number of building permits issued by public authorities using data from the italian regions we run a panel data regression model to test whether the ekc hypothesis holds results confute it evidencing a u shaped relationship in the authors opinion the combined effect of market conditions lifestyle evolution and institutional and political factors have produced an adverse effect on environment on this basis the paper claims that when social and intergenerational aspects are involved a balanced mix of market policies and institutional architecture is needed

growth and environmental quality testing the double convergence hypothesis abstract this paper discusses the double convergence hypothesis dch that the uncritical analysis of the so called environmental kuznets curve ekc implicitly implies according to the ekc empirical evidence would support the hypothesis that economic growth through a deterministic sequence of phases would produce cross country convergence in per capita output and as a by product convergence in the demand for environmental quality however factual analysis seems to reject the general hypothesis of convergence in per capita output limiting the validity of such an assessment to the case of homogeneous groups of countries this is why to test the dch the paper focuses on the original group of oecd countries for which the economic convergence turned out to be true this allows us to verify whether green and convergence follows as a consequence of economic convergence the paper also tests for a more equitable distribution of protection policies among countries unlike other studies which do not make the dch explicit and have focused on pollutant emissions this research explicitly tests for the double convergence using as a proxy for the demand for environmental quality the territory set aside for protected areas the results confirm that for the selected homogenous group of countries growth has accompanied the demand for environmental quality this happens both in terms of conditional and stochastic convergence

credit risk measurement developments over the last 20 years abstract this paper traces developments in the credit risk measurement literature over the last 20 years the paper is essentially divided into two parts in the first part the evolution of the literature on the credit risk measurement of individual loans and portfolios of loans is traced by way of reference to articles appearing in relevant issues of the journal of banking and finance and other publications in the second part a new approach built around a mortality risk framework to measuring the risk and returns on loans and bonds is presented this model is shown to offer some promise in analyzing the risk return structures of portfolios of credit risk exposed debt instruments

alternative forms of deposit insurance pricing and bank incentive issues abstract this paper derives formulas for a deposit insuring agency s liability and hence a fair value deposit insurance premium and the equilibrium value of bank equity considering a wide variety of factors affecting individual bank risk both fixed rate and variable rate risk sensitive insurance systems are analyzed consideration is made as to whether the deposit insuring agency makes direct payments to depositors or arranges mergers following bank closings the effect of these various policy choices on banks incentive for risk taking is also analyzed

planning delay and the responsiveness of english housing supply there is growing international interest in the impact of regulatory controls on the supply of housing most research focuses on the supply impacts of prescribed limits on land use but housing supply may also be affected by the process of planning monitoring and approval but this is hard to measure in detail the uk has a particularly restrictive planning regime and a detailed and uncertain process of development control linked to it but does offer the opportunity of detailed site based investigation of planning delay this paper presents the findings of empirical research on the time taken to gain planning permission for selected recent major housing projects in southern england the scale of delay found was far greater than is indicated by average official data measuring the extent to which local authorities meet planning delay targets hedonic modelling indicated that there is considerable variation in the time it takes local authorities to process planning applications housing association developments are processed more quickly than those of large developers and small sites appear to be particularly time intensive these results suggest that delays in development control may be a significant contributory factor to the low responsiveness of uk housing supply to upturns in market activity

pricing risk adjusted deposit insurance an option based model this paper presents a methodology for arriving at empirical estimates of deposit insurance premiums from market data by using isomorphic relationships betweeen equity and a call option and insurance and a put option the data utilizes the market value of equity to solve for the asset value and its volatility market perceptions of fdic bailout policies are explicitly modeled so as to eliminate the bias in inverted values of assets and their volatility sensitivity analyses are performed to show that rank orderings based on premiums are robust to changes in specification thus facilitating allocation of aggregate premium across banks while economists have long argued in favor of risk adjusted deposit insurance as both more equitable and more efficient than the current system of flatrate premiums various recent developments have further contributed to an increasing dissatisfaction with the current system first both the banking industry and the government seem to be tending to the view that deregulation of the banking industry would be necessary in order to meet more sophisticated future demands on the industry as well as desirable as a policy means of stimulating greater competition among banks moreover a sudden rise in the incidence of bank failures 1 and the vulnerability of the u s banks to the socalled international debt crisis have served to bring to the fore concern about the health of the banking industry in the absence of deposit insurance riskier banks will be able to attract deposits only at higher rates and these higher costs of funding serve as built in market regulated incentives to limit excessive risk taking by banks as introduction of deposit insurance makes deposits equally risk free across banks these incentives disappear and regulation and close supervision of the banking industry must necessarily replace them as deterrents to excessive risk taking thus when insurance is offered at a flat premium regulation is designed to ensure that the risk posed to the insurer both asset and financial risk is appropriately uniform

sovereign debt and its restructuring framework in the eurozone debt is a particularly serious macroeconomic problem in the eurozone public debt ratios are high by international historical standards with no immediate prospect of a significant reduction private corporate and household debt ratios are either flat or rising banks remain fragile and impose a contingent liability on the public purse the most stressed economies have not had the option of renewing economic growth through exchange rate depreciation and a boost to exports thus fiscal austerity has been their principal instrument to achieve debt reduction but since austerity also hurts growth the debt to gdp ratios have barely budged persistent low growth has also created deflationary tendencies which further raise the challenge of debt reduction

deposit insurance reform what are the issues and what needs to be fixed abstract the current problems in the commercial banking industry have led to widespread calls for reform of the deposit insurance contract on the grounds that it promotes moral hazard we review the empirical evidence for the significance of moral hazard as an important cause of the present crisis we then evaluate various reform proposals grouped into two broad classes proposals that seek to impose greater discipline on bank stockholders and proposals to increase the disciplinary role of bank debtholders finally we identify some issues that have received inadequate attention in the literature on bank regulation

theoretical and empirical foundations of hipc debt sustainability targets this article traces the origins of hipc heavily indebted poor country debt sustainability targets these targets are interpreted as switching values below which countries are expected to avoid debt service problems but as such they do not take into account that countries encounter debt problems for a variety of reasons and at different levels of debt it is likely that the true switching value of the debt to export ratio of many hipcs lie below the present target regarding the fiscal window of the hipc initiative the lack of analytical basis for a 250 per cent target for the debt torevenue ratio is noted and the problems raised by the joint openness revenue condition are discussed the article concludes that the sustainability targets as presently applied are not well supported in analytical terms

sovereign debt relief and its aftermath this paper studies sovereign debt relief in a long term perspective we quantify the relief achieved through default and restructuring in two distinct samples 1920 1939 focusing on the defaults on official government to government debt in advanced economies after world war i and 1978 2010 focusing on emerging market debt crises with private external creditors debt relief was substantial in both eras averaging 21 of gdp in the 1930s and 16 of gdp in recent decades we then analyze the aftermath of debt relief and conduct a difference in differences analysis around the synchronous war debt defaults of 1934 and the baker and brady initiatives of the 1980s 1990s the economic landscape of debtor countries improves signicantly after debt relief operations but only if these involve debt write offs softer forms of debt relief such as maturity extensions and interest rate reductions are not generally followed by higher economic growth or improved credit ratings jel e6 f3 n0 and h6

confronting the environmental kuznets curve t he environmental kuznets curve posits an inverted u relationship between pollution and economic development kuznets s name was apparently attached to the curve by grossman and krueger 1993 who noted its resemblance to kuznets s inverted u relationship between income inequality and development in the first stage of industrialization pollution in the environmental kuznets curve world grows rapidly because people are more interested in jobs and income than clean air and water communities are too poor to pay for abatement and environmental regulation is correspondingly weak the balance shifts as income rises leading industrial sectors become cleaner people value the environment more highly and regulatory institutions become more effective along the curve pollution levels off in the middle income range and then falls toward pre industrial levels in wealthy societies the environmental kuznets curve model has elicited conflicting reactions from researchers and policymakers applied econometricians have generally accepted the basic tenets of the model and focused on measuring its parameters their regressions typically fitted to cross sectional observations across countries or regions suggest that air and water pollution increase with development until per capita income reaches a range of 5000 to 8000 when income rises beyond that level pollution starts to decline as shown in the conventional ekc line in figure 1 in developing countries some policymakers have interpreted such results as conveying a message about priorities grow first then clean up numerous critics have challenged the conventional environmental kuznets curve both as a representation of what actually happens in the development process and as a policy prescription some pessimistic critics argue that crosssectional evidence for the environmental kuznets curve is nothing more than a

assessing the risk return trade off in loan portfolios abstract this paper proposes a methodology to analyse the risk and return of large loan portfolios in a joint setting i propose a tractable model to obtain the distribution of loan returns from observed interest rates and default frequencies i follow a sectoral approach that captures the heterogeneous cyclical features of different kinds of loans and yields moments in closed form i investigate the validity of mean variance analysis with a value at risk constraint and study its relationship with utility maximisation finally i study the efficiency of corporate and household loan portfolios in an empirical application to the spanish banking system

housing bubbles and busts the role of supply elasticity existing studies of the relationship between housing price dynamics and housing supply which have relied upon questionable proxies for supply elasticity have yielded highly mixed results in this paper we provide new evidence on this relationship based on actual estimates of the price elasticity of supply for local markets in florida intermarket differences in housing supply elasticity are found to explain much of the variation in housing price movements and new construction during the most recent boom bust cycle additionally we find that variance in the elasticity of housing supply can be attributed to differences in land availability and the local fiscal and regulatory environment jel r14

testing the kuznets curve hypothesis for qatar a comparison between carbon dioxide and ecological footprint abstract this paper explores the validity of the environmental kuznets curve ekc using two different environment indicators the carbon dioxide emissions co2 and the ecological footprint ef in qatar over the 1980 2011 period to this end we investigate the impact of real gross domestic product rgdp the square of rgdp the energy use the financial development and the trade openness on the co2 emissions and the ef we employ the autoregressive distributed lag ardl model with the presence of unknown structural breaks in order to study short run and long run elasticity between the variables the findings infer that there is a long run relationship among the selected variables with a shift in the cointegration vector in 1991 and 2000 the empirical result indicates that the inverted u shaped hypothesis is not valid in qatar when we use the co2 emissions whereas the inverted u shaped held when using the ef furthermore the error correction results confirm that the convergence towards the long run equilibrium will mostly occur within one year after a short run shock generally the findings suggest that qatar should invest more in efficient energy and continue sustained its growth moreover more efforts are needed for diversification particularly in technology intensive and environment friendly industries to improve environmental quality

appearance and reality in deposit insurance the case for reform abstract this paper argues that the staffs and explicit insurance reserves of u s deposit insurers have been overwhelmed by de facto financial disaster the full costs of financing federal deposit insurance have become enormous and increasingly inequitable in distribution to reduce voluntary risk taking authorities must reprice and redesign the system of de facto deposit insurance coverage six complementary reforms are discussed 1 accounting for institutional assets liabilities and net worth at market value 2 enhancing opportunities for deposit insurers to manage their risk exposure 3 recalibrating insurance coverages 4 imposing risk rated premiums 5 mixed private and governmental competition in deposit insurance and 6 constraining insurance agency and federal reserve authority to bail out insolvent institutions

what s different about banks abstract negotiable certificates of deposit cd s trade in the capital market in competition with other securities like commercial paper and bankers acceptances if cd s must pay lenders competitive monetary interest the reserve tax on cd s is borne by bank borrowers viability of the tax means there must be something special about bank loans that makes some borrowers willing to pay higher interest rates than those on other securities of equivalent risk moreover there must be something special about banks that prevents other intermediaries from competing to assure that it never pays to finance loans with cd s

an alternative analysis of apparent ekc type transitions abstract the hypothesis of the environmental kuznets curve ekc depends upon the assumption that countries pass through a similar environmental impact trajectory as they experience income growth implying that income levels determine pollution levels the authors present evidence that this is not representative of the way many individual country s pollution emission trajectories evolve and question the emphasis on income determinism by the ekc the study proposes that nonlinear dynamic systems analysis provides a more complete description of individual country pollution trajectories in the case of co 2 emissions the nonlinear time trajectories show abrupt transitions that occur contemporaneously with historical events and over a broad range of incomes

reexamining the empirical evidence for an environmental kuznets curve this paper uses an updated and revised panel data set on ambient air pollution in cities worldwide to examine the robustness of the evidence for the existence of an inverted u shaped relationship between national income and pollution we test the sensitivity of the pollution income relationship to functional forms to additional covariates and to changes in the nations cities and years sampled we find that the results are highly sensitive to these changes and conclude that there is little empirical support for an inverted u shaped relationship between several important air pollutants and national income in these data

options on the minimum or the maximum of two risky assets analysis and applications this paper provides analytical formulas for european put and call options on the minimum or the maximum of two risky assets the properties of these formulas are discussed in detail options on the minimum or the maximum of two risky assets are useful to price a wide variety of contingent claims of interest to financial economists applications discussed in this paper include the valuation of foreign currency debt option bonds compensation plans risk sharing contracts secured debt and growth opportunities involving mutually exclusive investments

organized debt buybacks no cure for free riding abstract this paper discusses the possibility of resolving the international debt overhang problem through an organized buyback at the secondary market prices suggested by peter kenen we focus on one aspect of the feasibility the elimination of the free rider problem of creditors in the presence of the secondary market for sovereign debt the analysis shows that there are equilibria in which the organized buyback can be blocked by the free riding among banks

capital regulation and deposit insurance abstract a model of deposit insurance in which the bank closure rule can systematically deviate from the economic insolvency condition used in earlier models is developed simulation of that model for plausible parameter values suggests that the failure to close banks on a timely basis has a profound effect in increasing the insurer s liability the implications of these results for capital regulation are discussed

the environmental kuznets curve ekc theory part a concept causes and the co2 emissions case abstract the main purpose of this study is to capture the main features of the environmental kuznets curve ekc concept according to the ekc theory the process of economic growth is expected eventually to limit the environmental degradation created in the early stages of development the ekc concept leads many researchers from the early 1990s to assume that each economy should focus on its growth and any environmental problems will be eventually eliminated by the process of economic growth several studies attempt to test empirically the ekc hypothesis using data on many countries and examining various types of environmental degradation while other studies examine the underlying factors that may drive such a relationship this article reviews the evolution of the ekc concept and the possible causes of an ekc pattern like the distribution of income the international trade pollution haven hypothesis structural changes technical progress and improvements in energy efficiency institutions and governance and consumer preferences as co2 emissions are a pollutant with global effects several studies deal with the possible ekc pattern for co2 emissions and these studies are discussed separately the various critiques on the ekc concept are reviewed in the second article of this work

how does the stock market view bank regulatory capital forbearance policies during the subprime crisis the fdic has shown once again laxity in resolving and closing insolvent institutions ronn and verma 1986 call the tolerance level below which a bank closure is triggered the regulatory policy parameter we derive a model in which we make this parameter stochastic and bank specific to infer the stock market view of the regulatory capital forbearance value for 565 u s listed banks during 1990 to 2012 the countercyclical forbearance fraction in capital most substantial in recessions could represent 17 on average of the market valuation of bank equity and could go as high as 100

sovereign debt optimal contract underinvestment and forgiveness in this paper we develop a time consistent rational expectations model which analyzes the equilibrium loan contract between a borrowing country and a foreign bank the loan contract specifies both the amount of the loan and the promised interest payments and rationally reflects the investment decisions of the country and the possibilities of renegotiation and repudiation of the debt an important feature of the model is that at the initial negotiation of the loan there is uncertainty about whether the country will renegotiate for partial forgiveness in the future and whether it will eventually repudiate the debt even having successfully renegotiated moreover the probabilities of renegotiation and repudiation and the amount of possible forgiveness are endogenously determined in the model the repudiation decision is directly related to the underinvestment problem the objective of the renegotiation is precisely to alleviate this problem the model is used to analyze the effects of four variables on both the optimal contract and the country s welfare the degree of penalties that a bank can impose on a defaulting country the uncertainty of production the productivity of investments and the riskless interest rate the analysis has policy implications as well as testable predictions during the last ten years the issues related to less developed countries ldcs debt have become increasingly more important in the world economy the main reason for this is the significant increase in the amount of debt outstanding and the consequent higher yearly interest payments by 1988 seventeen highly indebted countries had an aggregated debt of 510 billion dollars see rogoff 1990 a second important reason is that starting in 1982 some of these countries suspended debt service payments creating a serious crisis of confidence in the banking system of the lending countries as a consequence borrowers and lenders have had to engage in negotiations including the rescheduling of the repayments and possibly partial forgiveness a number of papers have suggested that forgiveness could conceivably make both lenders and borrowers better off because the country

variable rate deposit insurance a re examination abstract this paper investigates the impact of variable rate deposit insurance on the financial and real sectors of the economy and its role as an absorber of bankruptcy risk within these sectors a variable rate system raises the cost of funds to the real sector and increases probability of bankruptcy of the borrowing firms when such bankruptcies occur society experiences a dead weight loss we argue that appropriate deposit insurance pricing must weigh the social costs connected with both financial firm failure and real sector bankruptcy

economic growth and environmental degradation the environmental kuznets curve and sustainable development abstract in this paper we critically examine the concept of the environmental kuznets curve ekc it proposes that there is an inverted u shape relation between environmental degradation and income per capita so that eventually growth reduces the environmental impact of economic activity the concept is dependent on a model of the economy in which there is no feedback from the quality of the environment to production possibilities and in which trade has a neutral effect on environmental degradation the actual violation of these assumptions gives rise to fundamental problems in estimating the parameters of an ekc the paper identifies other econometric problems with estimates of the ekc and reviews a number of empirical studies the inference from some such ekc estimates that further development will reduce environmental degradation is dependent on the assumption that world per capita income is normally distributed when in fact median income is far below mean income we carry out simulations combining ekc estimates from the literature with world bank forecasts for economic growth for individual countries aggregating over countries to derive the global impact within the horizon of the bank s forecast 2025 global emissions of so 2 continue to increase forest loss stabilizes before the end of the period but tropical deforestation continues at a constant rate throughout the period

is the income elasticity of environmental improvements less than one we estimated the income elasticity of environmental improvements for a number of european data sets the value of this parameter is consistently found to be less than one with few exceptions our findings are compared with state of the art contingent valuation studies from other countries we also compared our findings with those reported in the literature on charitable donations and corporate donations these studies show a similar pattern donations decrease as a percentage of income as income increases

have air pollutant emissions converged among u s regions evidence from unit root tests previous studies of income distribution have found evidence indicating that incomes across u s regions have converged supporting the prediction of the neoclassical growth model a potential shortcoming in these studies is that only one measure of well being is considered a measure of wealth linked to incomes or production this paper examines whether income convergence was accompanied by air pollutant emission convergence results from unit root tests provide some evidence that indicators of environmental quality have converged across u s regions during the 1929 1994 period

prospective aid and indebtedness relief a proposal primary needs of human development are not met in poor development countries although ambitious goals have been set by the international community to meet specific human development targets by 2015 official development aid is lagging and excessive external debt continues to drain much needed resources from poor countries despite the recent hipc highly indebted poor countries initiative this paper outlines a 15 year program for implementing the 2015 human development targets while resolving fully the debt overhang problem for a set of 49 poor countries the proposal requires additional contributions from 23 rich countries amounting to 0 1 of 1 of their gdp over each of the 15y ears although only a small part of the effort would take the form of debt cancellation the outstanding debt of the 49 poor countries would be totally extinct by year 2015 the program to be implemented in a multilateral framework in which all interested parties have an effective voice relies on several basic premises a long term commitment by donors a fair burden sharing among creditors a fair distribution of newly available resources among poor countries heavily indebted or not a targeting of these resources to human development programs a conditionality guaranteeing reasonable aid effectiveness

a strategy for efficient debt reduction f or the past seven years the u s government has managed the debt crisis with the preeminent goal of sustaining the flow of debt servicing payments from the debtor countries to the commercial banks the focus on the banks especially in the first years of the crisis 1982 85 is easily explained several money center banks had exposure of nearly 200 percent of bank capital in latin america alone upon the outbreak of the crisis in 1982 a widespread suspension of debt service payments could well have sunk several major banks i have discussed the u s government s policy focus on the debt servicing to the commercial banks in sachs 1986b 1989c and sachs and huizinga 1987 but today those policies are being revised after years of steady decline in the exposure ratios of the most heavily exposed banks the risk of a u s banking crash as the result of the debt crisis is now virtually nonexistent in addition the burden of debt payments is contributing to profound economic crises and growing political instability in almost all of the democracies in latin america a wide range of analysts now concurs that the debt burden should be reduced not only for the sake of the debtors but also for the sake of the creditors who have an important long run stake in allowing the developing countries to surmount the current acute crisis the brady plan unveiled by secretary of treasury nicholas brady in march 1989 is based on the need for a reduction of the debt burden

federal deposit insurance regulatory policy and optimal bank capital this paper seeks to explain the combination of explicit and implicit pricing for deposit insurance employed by the fdic essentially the fdic sells two products insurance and regulation to span the product space it must and does set two prices we argue that the need to establish regulatory disincentives to bank risk taking is the heart of the controversy over the adequacy of bank capital and that the ability to close risky banks before exhausting their charter value i e the value of their right to continue in business stands at the center of these disincentives and in front of the fdic s insurance reserves just as a book shouldn t be judged by its cover a government agency shouldn t be judged by the words behind its initials with the fdic federal deposit insurance corporation the agency s name describes only part of its formal operations the fdic is quasi governmental has a regional structure and sells deposit insurance however the initials fail to convey the fdic s critical place in the governmental regulatory structure as the sole federal overseer of the approximately 8900 state chartered commercial banks that have chosen not to belong the federal reserve system reflecting the federal reserve s membership problem the number of these banks is growing year by year besides selling deposit insurance at bargain explicit rates the fdic performs four regulatory functions 1 entry regulation it passes on new banks applications for deposit insurance and on branch and merger proposals as well thereby protecting the value of existing bank charters 2 examination two thirds of fdic employees are concerned with inspecting bank records and supervising managerial activity 3 regulation of deposit rates and conditions for withdrawal by tradition fdic policies on these matters conform entirely with regulations applicable to federal reserve member banks and 4 disposition of failed banks when an insured bank fails the fdic usually chooses not to liquidate it 2

three paradigms for the role of capitalization requirements in insured financial institutions standard models for deposit insurance strike analogies to more familiar financial contracts and conceive of risk as exogenous the oldest model of deposit insurance likens it to passively underwriting casualty insurance a more sophisticated but still bilateral model likens deposit insurance to writing a passive put option on the enterprise whose funding is insured delays in acknowledging the wreck of the s l industry and its federal insurer fslic discredit these models as guides to managing a deposit insurance fund deposit insurance is better interpreted as a trilateral performance bond that enhances the credit of an insured institution this interpretation endogenizes risk emphasizes incentive conflict and underscores the need to optimize loss control activity the bonding model clarifies that a subset of the monitoring and disciplinary activities traditionally undertaken by government officials can usefully be privatized

an economic analysis of debt swaps and case study of the harvard debt for education swap abstract evaluation of harvard university s debt for education swap with ecuador yields a clear bottom line harvard unambiguously gains from the deal since tuition receipts more than double initial outlays and the university acquires assets to fund research in ecuador ecuador s economic benefits however are less clear since the dollar outflow from ecuador may exceed the amount of new scholarship aid plus the true buyback value participants in future debt for education deals must consider both the uncertainty of economic gains and possible macroeconomic consequences for the debtor country

economic growth trade and energy implications for the environmental kuznets curve abstract the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis asserts that pollution follows an inverted u path with respect to economic growth the ekc has been explained in terms of structural changes in the composition of economic output and increased environmental regulation at higher income levels while some authors have incorporated the impact of trade policy orientation on the ekc the impact of the actual movement between countries of goods that embody pollution has not been considered this paper attempts to econometrically quantify the effect using pooled cross country and time series data the ekc hypothesis is examined with respect to commercial energy consumption the source of many serious environmental problems it was found that while both industrializing and industrialized countries have added to their energy requirements by exporting manufactured goods the growth has been substantially higher in the former at the same time industrialized countries have been able to reduce their energy requirements by importing manufactured goods exports of manufactured goods by industrialized countries has thus been an important factor in generating the upward sloping portion of the ekc and imports by industrialized countries have contributed to the downward slope

the valuation of fdic deposit insurance using option pricing estimates when congress set the premium rate for fdic deposit insurance in the banking act of 1935 which authorized a permanent federal insurance system neither experience nor theory could offer much guidance regarding an appropriate fee structure although rates have since been periodically revised the fdic has yet to attempt to set the insurance rate at a ifair level that is a level equal to administrative costs plus the ex ante value of the insurance such a premium is the rate that would be charged by competitive private insurers however7 the garn st germain act of 1982 directed the fdic to consider the feasibility of a risk based premium structure in response the fdic has suggested a trial system in which each insured bank will be placed in one of three risk classes based on credit and interest rate risk relative to capital and a premium rate will be assigned to each group those rates will be determined in part by the loss experience of the entire banking system fdic 1983 another approach to the determination of the appropriate insurance premium has been offered by merton 1977 who suggested using the analogous relationship between deposit guarantees and put options to value fdic insurance in this paper we follow merton s suggestion and calculate bank specific estimates of the proper premium for deposit insurance for the banks in our sample we find that fdic rates greatly exceed estimates of the fair value of the insurance derived from the blackscholes 1972 option pricing model

information access income distribution and the environmental kuznets curve abstract recent empirical studies have tested the hypothesis of an environmental kuznets curve ekc focusing primarily on the relationship between per capita income and certain types of pollutant emissions given the stock nature of many pollution problems emissions only partially account for the environmental impacts moreover almost all of the studies have given consideration to little more than income levels as explanatory variables this paper empirically tests the hypothesis of the ekc existence for a stock sensitive indicator that is the percentage of protected area pa within national territory it does theorize that economic growth is a necessary condition in order to better address environmental issues but it also stresses that other variables income distribution education information accessibility may play a fundamental role in determining environmental quality contrary to other studies that mainly focus on the calculation of the income level corresponding to the transition point this paper is more concerned with the calculation of environmental quality corresponding to that transition point that is the minimum level of environmental quality that a country is willing to accept this paper highlights the idea that if the transition point is determined primarily by income level social policies determine the level of environmental quality corresponding to that point

business tax policy the lucas critique and lessons from the 1980 s in 1976 robert lucas published a devastating critique of the then current practice for quantifying the effects of alternative policies he argued that in formulating plans economic agents necessarily look into the future and thus the decision rules guiding their actions depend on parameters describing the expectations of future variables as well as parameters of taste and technology lucas viewed economic policy as the selection of rules that generate the values of policy variables rather than the selection of arbitrary sequences of policy variables thus any change in policy will systematically alter the structure of econometric models 1981 p 126 and the estimated coefficients in the then current consumption wageprice or investment models could not be considered structural that is invariant to alternative policy regimes the important and damning implication for policy analysis is that these econometric relationships will prove unstable in precisely those situations in which they are called upon to analyze proposed policies this paper seeks to exploit the substantial variation in business tax policy during the 1980 s to shed some light on the quantitative importance of the lucas critique lc and to evaluate the ability of explicit theory to enhance econometric analysis in august of 1981 the economic agenda of the reagan revolution began to be put in place with the passage of the economic recovery tax act erta this was followed by the tax equity and fiscal responsibility act of 1982 the deficit reduction act of 1984 and the tax reform act of 1986 other changes such as the increase in defense spending and growth of and restrictions on the federal deficit indicate that expectations of the current and future course of fiscal policy were altered radically during the reagan administration maintained in this paper is the assumption that these changes in tax and other aspects of fiscal policy can be viewed as an unanticipated change in policy regime in regard to the 1981 legislation the economic report of the president claimed that t his tax policy is a sharp break from the policies of the recent past it reflects a different understanding of the way tax policy affects the u s economy 1982 p 109 under the assumption that the 1980 s witnessed a fundamental change in the stochastic process characterizing fiscal policy econometric equations susceptible to the lc should become temporally unstable those models that successfully address the lc by isolating expectation parameters should remain stable the quantitative importance of the lc is evaluated by examining the stability of four different econometric models of business investment that to varying degrees are vulnerable to the lc the neoclassical model studied extensively by robert hall and dale jorgenson 1967 robert eisner and m ishaq nadiri 1968 and their numerous collaborators the q model associated with james tobin the vector autoregressive model var s advanced by christopher sims 1982 and a hybrid var model var h used to study investment by robert gordon and john veitch 1986 since the four models differ in the extent to which they are guided by explicit theoretical frameworks these results will also be useful in assessing the impact of economic theory on econometric performance university of chicago chicago il 60637 i thank charles hulten robert lucas and allen sinai for critical comments on a preliminary draft all errors omissions and conclusions remain my sole responsibility

the environmental kuznets curve ekc theory part b critical issues according to the environmental kuznets curve ekc theory the process of economic growth is expected to limit the environmental degradation created in the early stages of development the first article of this study reviews the empirical studies examining various factors other than income that may lead to an ekc pattern the current article reviews in the first part the major critiques on the ekc speculation which relate to the following issues the normal distribution of world income the feedback from environmental degradation to economic growth the characteristics of the pollutant in question various econometric issues the evolution of consumption when income rises and the assumption about a common developmental pattern in all countries the second part discusses additional matters reported indirectly in the literature and or must be further examined there are doubts whether the gdp series captures the transition of production to the three productive sectors in empirical estimations and whether services are less polluting compared to industry activities finally the original kuznets theory which laid the groundwork for the ekc concept does not seem to solve income inequality problems

are sovereign debt secondary market returns sensitive to macroeconomic fundamentals evidence from the contemporary and interwar markets abstract the insensitivity of sovereign loan secondary market returns to macroeconomic fundamentals has been attributed to market illiquidity and the absence of publicly reported transactional prices during the 1920s and 1930s sovereign bonds were traded in an active market and weekly transactional prices were publicly available this paper shows that price changes from both eras are insensitive to unexpected changes in key external and country specific macroeconomic aggregates but that returns are moved by individual agent announcements that presage changes in future lending the results which contrast with studies of us equities indicate that the sovereignty of the issuer matters more than the type of debt contract

a framework for assessing credit risk in depository institutions toward regulatory reform abstract this paper develops and illustrates a new method for evaluating the credit risk borne by depository institutions that may prove to be an important element in a regulatory mechanism sensitive to risk in our framework depository institutions are forced to bear the costs of their risk exposure and hence to internalize this cost when extending loans using various loan portfolios and alternative macroeconomic scenarios we present numerical calculations demonstrating the ability of our framework to capture variations in risk exposure and highlighting the significance of portfolio concentrations these calculations are based on an important new source of information that permits an econometric analysis of loan losses by industry

financial structure and aggregate economic activity an overview this paper surveys literature that explores the possible links between the financial system and aggregate economic behavior the survey is in two parts the first reviews the traditional work and the second discusses new research copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

local taxation and urban development testing for the side effects of the italian property tax land is an essential yet limited natural resource its current unsustainable use asks for a better understanding of the main determinants of urban expansion a heuristic approach is used to analyze urban development in italy in particular the paper estimates an econometric model to test the impact of the italian property tax ici on the local authorities behavior and in particular on urban planning and development it tests whether its introduction has fostered rather than dampened construction activity the hypothesis put forward is that because of the concurrent market conditions the introduction of the tax has facilitated urban development the structure of the tax and the devolution process that began in the 90s induced local municipalities to adopt less tight accommodative urban policies to offset budgetary needs a more elastic urban policy reduces price volatility however its overall welfare effect is not clearly determined indeed ceteris paribus geographical areas with more elastic housing supply witness larger land consumption the land use changes we witnessed in the last decades could be the combined effect of financial and fiscal aspects if this is so careful attention should be given to the issue of whether leaving urban planning and the power to levy property taxes under the same jurisdiction

is fairly priced deposit insurance possible we analyze risk sensitive incentive compatible deposit insurance in the presence of private information and moral hazard without deposit linked subsidies it is impossible to implement risk sensitive incentive compatible deposit insurance pricing in a competitive deregulated environment except when the deposit insurer is the least risk averse agent in the economy we establish this formally in the context of an insurance scheme in which privately informed depository institutions are offered deposit insurance premia contingent on reported capital the result holds for alternative sorting instruments as well this suggests a contradiction between deregulation and fairly priced risk sensitive deposit insurance this paper exposes a conflict between a deregulated competitive financial services industry on the one hand and fairly priced risk sensitive deposit insurance on the other we show that if depository institutions dis are perfectly competitive i e each makes zero profits on average then it is impossible to implement incentive compatible risk sensitive deposit insurance pricing recent distress among dis has fueled debate about reform of the existing deposit insurance system many believe that the prevailing risk insensitive premium structure encourages dis to choose excessively risky assets and that it should be replaced by deposit insurance premia linked to the dis choices of risk 2 risk sensitive deposit insurance pricing however imposes greater informational demands on the deposit insurer and runs afoul of both

curse or blessing has the impact of debt relief lived up to expectations a review of the effects of the multilateral debt relief initiatives for low income countries as the multilateral debt relief initiatives draw to a close this article reviews the impacts of debt relief to low income countries lics building on both the theoretical and empirical literature

a reexamination of the over or under pricing of deposit insurance this study shows how fair deposit insurance premia can be calculated using data on bank stock prices interest rate movements and income and balance sheet accounts fair insurance premia are estimat ed under the alternative assumptions that the fdic provides either a limited term variable rate or unlimited term insurance cont ract to banks the paper s results suggest that for nearly all of the large commerical banks in the sample the actual insurance premium c harged by the fdic falls between the bounds of fair limited term and unlimited term insurance premia copyright 1987 by ohio state university press

a further inquiry into the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental kuznets curve abstract empirical research on the relationship between economic growth and its impact on the environment often tests the environmental kuznets curve ekc a hypothesis that rising national output leads to increases in pollution emissions until an economy reaches a certain size and decreases thereafter this paper addresses a branch of ekc literature focused on the role international trade plays in shaping this relationship in particular we test the pollution haven hypothesis which posits that emission reductions observed in developed nations are partly the result of shifting dirty production to developing nations with lax environmental standards we estimate ekcs for seven oft studied pollutants and find little evidence that pollution havens play a significant role in shaping the ekc we also find that confidence intervals around ekc turning points are very wide often including values well above the range of the data this leads us to be skeptical of the optimistic view that economic growth naturally leads to improvements in environmental quality

a global compact to end poverty brian snowdon presents the text of a two hour interview conducted with jeffrey d sachs of columbia university a wide ranging discussion relating to professor sachs s work over the past thirty years on macroeconomic stabilisation the economics of transition and several important issues in the field of international economic development first snowdon provides some background to the debate relating to professor sachs s most recent work that has helped focus international attention on the growth tragedy of sub saharan africa this key humanitarian issue has received enormous coverage in the media throughout 2005 and has been highlighted in particular at the g8 meetings in gleneagles and worldwide live 8 concerts in july 2005 and the un world summit in september

sovereign risk and secondary markets conventional wisdom says that in the absence of default penalties sovereign risk destroys all foreign asset trade we show that this conventional wisdom rests on one implicit assumption that assets cannot be retraded in secondary markets without this assumption foreign asset trade is possible even in the absence of default penalties this result suggests a broader perspective regarding the origins of sovereign risk and its remedies sovereign risk affects foreign asset trade only if default penalties are insufficient and secondary markets work imperfectly to reduce its effects one can either increase default penalties or improve the working of secondary markets jel f34 g12 g15

income inequality and pollution a reassessment of the environmental kuznets curve abstract improvements in some measures of air and water quality can accompany rising per capita income as illustrated by the so called environmental kuznets curve for pollution variables which show such a relationship we hypothesize that a more equitable distribution of power contributes to these outcomes by enhancing the influence on policy of those who bear the costs of pollution relative to the influence of those who benefit from pollution generating activities an empirical analysis of international variations in seven indicators of air and water quality supports this hypothesis literacy political rights and civil liberties are found to have particularly strong effects on environmental quality in low income countries

taking the u out of kuznets a comprehensive analysis of the ekc and environmental degradation unlike most environmental kuznets curve ekc studies which focus on narrow measures of pollution as proxies for environmental quality we test the validity of the ekc using the ecological footprint ef a more comprehensive measure of environmental degradation we find no empirical evidence of an ekc relationship between the ef and economic development and only limited support for such a relationship among the components of the ef in addition we discover that energy is largely responsible for the lack of an ekc relationship and that energy consumption levels would have to be cut by over 50 in order for a statistically significant ekc relationship to emerge from the data overall these results suggest that growth alone will not lead to sustainable development

a structural analysis of external debt and economic growth some evidence from selected countries in asia and the pacific in an attempt to resolve the existing controversy about the cause and effect relationship between external dept and economic slowdown granger causality tests are conducted with data on indebted developing countries of asia and pacific the results of these tests indicate that the bulow rogoff proposition that the external debts of developing countries are a symptom rather than a cause of economic slowdown is rejected they also indicate that the dornbush krugman proposition that external dept leads to economic slowdown is also rejected moreover a feedback type relationship is not rejected for two countries in view of the mixed results this paper also estimates the nexus of inter relationship between public and private external dept accumulation capital accumulation and production within a simultaneous equation system the estimation results indicate that the full effects of the public and private external depts on gnp are small and of an opposite sign whereas an increase in the gnp level raises sub

applying portfolio theory to global bank lending abstract portfolio theory provides some insights into how a bank should manage its global exposures practical application of some of the principles of portfolio analysis is possible if comparable credit ratings are available and if the impact on each loan s rating of likely future events can be assessed if further restrictive assumptions are made about which quality dimensions of the portfolio are more important and how much more important and if judgements can be quantified about what risk return tradeoffs are acceptable then it is possible to derive measures to guide exposure and pricing decisions this article is related to the other papers in this special issue in that country and corporate risk assessment methodologies can provide important inputs into the portfolio analysis this paper however attempts to go beyond the evaluation of risk at the level of individual companies countries or other loan customers and to focus instead on the problem of managing the riskiness of the overall bank loan portfolio

a consumption based approach to environmental kuznets curves using the ecological footprint indicator recent research suggests that consumption based measures offer an insightful perspective on the debate on the relationship between economic growth and the environment in this article we deepen the

interest risk sensitive deposit insurance premia stable ach estimates abstract the parameters of interest rate uncertainty are estimated by maximum likelihood for the period 1952 1982 and used to evaluate bank or thrift deposit insurance as a function of duration mismatching capital asset ratio and the recent history of interest rate forecasting errors homoskedasticity is overwhelmingly rejected in favor of adaptive conditional heteroskedasticity ach even after removing this heteroskedasticity normality gives much lower likelihood than paretian stable distributions with characteristic exponent in the range 1 614 to 1 714 the conditional deposit insurance values fluctuate by factors in excess of 300 for some duration gaps over the past three decades

is there an environmental kuznets curve for sulfur abstract most existing estimates of the environmental kuznets curve ekc for sulfur which use samples of mainly high income countries indicate a maximum emissions turning point at middle to lower high income levels of gdp per capita we use a larger and more globally representative sample than previous sulfur ekc studies we find that sulfur emissions per capita are a monotonic function of income per capita when we use a global sample and an inverted u shape function of income when we use a sample of high income countries a model estimated in first differences results in a monotonic ekc when estimated with both high income and global samples reductions in emissions are time related rather than income related

is environmental degradation an inevitable consequence of economic growth tunneling through the environmental kuznets curve abstract economywide reforms often contribute simultaneously to economic social and environmental gains however unintended adverse side effects occur in many cases when such growth inducing reforms are undertaken while neglecting other policy market or institutional imperfections the remedy does not generally require reversal of the original economywide reforms but rather the ex ante implementation of additional complementary measures that remove such imperfections the ekc approach seeks to relate the state of the environment to the stage of development developing countries could learn from the experiences of industrialized nations and restructure growth and development to tunnel through any potential ekc thereby avoiding going through the same stages of growth that involve relatively high and even irreversible levels of environmental harm an environmentally adjusted measure of national income could significantly change the shape of the development environment relationship recommendations for decision making include actively seeking win win policies that simultaneously yield both economic and environmental gains pre empting environmental harm through ex ante remedial measures and fine tuning reform policies to avoid severe environmental damage the adoption of more sustainable policies will facilitate the attainment of higher levels of development at a lower environmental cost

the role of multilateral institutions in the market for sovereign debt creditor country governments have an interest in avoiding defaults by sovereign debtors because default sanctions may be costly to their citizens as a result a standard bargaining model predicts that debtors do not repay in equilibrium even if the threat of sanctions is credible on the part of the banks by contracting with a third party such as a multilateral institution with some degree of independence creditor country governments can precommit not to intervene in equilibrium when debt renegotiation occurs the sovereign receives a subsidy from the multilateral agency the model is used to interpret recent debt reduction operations

the effect of growth and corruption on soil sealing in italy a regional environmental kuznets curve analysis this paper analyses and looks more closely at the empirical debate regarding the income elasticity hypothesis postulated in relation to the environmental kuznets curve and the impact of corruption on the relationship between growth and environmental impact measured in terms of soil sealing as proxied by the number of building permits issued by public authorities it postulates that when current private rent is high compared to perceived social costs and a large enough minority benefits from the rules the ekc does not emerge and public intervention fails to perceive social optimality to validate this hypothesis we run a panel data regression model based on data from all italian regions results confirmed the hypothesis evidencing a u shaped relationship i e a detrimental relationship between income and environmental impact quality it also demonstrated that this is contingent on the level of corruption the latter affects the position and the shape of the inverted ekc speeding up the exploitation process it shows that the higher the income the higher the effect of corruption on the environment therefore it advocates caution against any simplistic inference from ekc