demand for money in open economies abstract the demand for real cash balances deduced from an underlying portfolio model of the financial market is shown to depend upon domestic variables and foreign monetary developments the model is estimated using quarterly postwar data for canada germany uk and us there is clear evidence that demand for money is affected not only by changes in domestic variables such as permanent income domestic interest rate and price expectations but also by fluctuations in exchange rate expectations and foreign interest rates the conclusion that domestic monetary policy is fairly ineffective and domestic financial markets are highly vulnerable to changes in foreign financial and monetary developments need to be modified in light of the results presented in this paper

the demand for money in an open economy the united kingdom most previous studies have estimated the demand for money without paying too much attention to developments in the foreign exchange markets in light of the fact that any development abroad and in the foreign exchange markets could have implications for domestic stabilization we make an attempt to incorporate such developments into the demand for money in the united kingdom more precisely after incorporating a measure of real effective exchange rate of the british pound into a dynamic money demand function we estimated it for the uk using quarterly data over 1973 87 period by relying upon the akaike final prediction error criteria to select the optimum number of lags it is shown that in addition to income and interest rate the real effective exchange rate exerts significant effect on the uk demand for money in the short run as well as long run

can foreign aid reduce income inequality and poverty this paper s goal is to examine the effect of foreign aid on income inequality and poverty reduction for the period 1971 2002 since simple cross country regressions cannot be taken as true time series findings we focus on dynamic panel data techniques which allow accounting for potential simultaneity and heterogeneity problems we find some weak evidence that foreign aid is conducive to the improvement of the distribution of income when the quality of institutions is taken into account however this result is not robust this finding is consistent with recent empirical research on aid ineffectiveness in achieving economic growth or promoting democratic institutions

seasonal poverty in madagascar magnitude and solutions abstract seasonal reductions in food consumption pull about one million malagasy below the poverty line during the lean season there they join the nine million more who remain chronically undernourished throughout the year because the seasonality of food shortages coincides with the increased prevalence of diarrhea and other diseases during the rainy season the resulting lean season exacts a heavy toll in the form of increased rates of malnutrition and child mortality combining the results of recent field studies with a seasonal multi market model this paper measures the probable impacts of three common interventions aimed at combatting seasonal food insecurity we find the most promising interventions to be those that increase agricultural productivity of the secondary food crops such as cassava other roots and tubers and maize

inequality and the impact of growth on poverty comparative evidence for sub saharan africa abstract this study explores the extent to which inequality affects the impact of income growth on the rates of poverty changes in sub saharan africa ssa compared to non ssa based on an unbalanced panel of 86 countries over 1977 2004 for all three measures of poverty headcount gap and squared gap the impact of gdp growth on poverty reduction is a decreasing function of initial inequality the impacts are similar in direction for ssa and non ssa so that within both regions there are considerable disparities in the responsiveness of poverty to income growth depending on inequality nevertheless the income growth elasticity is substantially less for ssa implying relatively small poverty reduction response to growth

term premia on euro rates there are at least two statistically firm results regarding international money and capital markets the first is the theory of interest rate parity is empirically valid for euro interest rates 8 the second is forward exchange rates are poor very likely biased predictors of future spot exchange rates 1 3 10 12 13 the former is a comforting finding in that it assures there are no unexploited arbitrage profits the latter is troubling to some because it might be a symptom of an inefficient market that interest rate parity holds suggests international exchange and money market arbitrageurs are fully exploiting all profit opportunities they are behaving rationally that forward exchange rates fail to predict future spot rates at least unbiasedly suggests the existence of some unknown mechanism which robs predictive ability in a naive rational expectations view of the world the failure of forward rates to be unbiased predictors of future spot rates implies either that there is some difference between interest rate pairs other than inflationary expectations or that forward rates do not capture expected inflation differences in any simple way see 9 this paper addresses the first issue if there are differences in interest rate pairs which do not solely reflect expected inflation divergences this must show up as a difference in real interest rates such could be the result of actual instantaneous real rates of identical risk being unequal in magnitude or what is more likely differences in term premia between interest rate pairs when periods greater than say one day are used in interest rate parity and forward rate prediction tests if there are differential term premia in interest rate pairs of say one month or longer then forward exchange rates will mispredict the future spot exchange rate by that margin

does trade liberalization promote regional disparities evidence from a multiregional cge model of india summary over last few decades there has been a growing interest among researchers in understanding the link between trade liberalization and regional disparities within the context of an individual country in this study we develop the first ever single country multiregional computable general equilibrium cge model for the indian economy to investigate this linkage overall our results suggest that in the short run trade liberalization has a beneficial impact on the rich and fast growing middle income states and a marginal or negative impact on the poor states

chronic poverty in the united states this paper proposes a method of measuring chronic and transitory poverty using an axiomatically sound additively decomposable index of aggregate poverty our approach is contrasted with alternative methods of measuring poverty persistence we use our method to measure chronic and transitory poverty in the united states during the 1980s and late 1970s and find that chronic poverty is a more serious problem than previously thought between the late 1970s and mid 1980s poverty not only increased it became more chronic and less transitory in nature this is true for the population as a whole and for some but not all of the subpopulations we considered the latter were defined according to race type of social unit and educational qualifications of the head of the social unit all empirical analyses are based on data from the panel study of income dynamics

the collapse of purchasing power parities during the 1970 s one of the striking facts concerning the relationship beiveen prices and exchange rates during the 1970 s has been the dismal performance of the predictions of the simple versions of the purchasing power parity doctrine ppp that doctrine in its absolute version states that the equilibrium exchange rate between domestic and foreign currencies equals the ratio of domestic to foreign price levels the relative version of the doctrine relates equilibrium changes in exchange rates to changes in the ratio of domestic to foreign prices during the 1970 s short run changes in exchange rates bore little relationship to short run differentials in national inflation rates and frequently divergences from purchasing power parities have been cumulative this paper reviews and analyzes the empirical record of exchange rates and prices during the 1970 s and the analysis is based on the experience of the dollar pound the dollar frecch franc and the dollar dm exchange rates section 2 presents the evidence on ppp during the 1970 s and contrasts it with the evidence from the 1920 s a period during which the doctrine held up reasonably well this analysis is relevant for assessing whether the flexible exchange rate system was successful in providing national economies with an added degree of insulation from foreign shocks and whether it provided policymakers with an added instrument for the conduct of macroeconomic policy the evidence regarding devia tions from purchasing power parities is also relevant for determining whether there is a case for managed float section 3 attempts to explain what went wrong with

land contingent poverty alleviation schemes abstract target groups for rural poverty alleviation schemes in south asia and elsewhere have often been identified in terms of their landholding class with landless or near landless households being the intended beneficiaries this paper offers a quantitative approach to the analysis and design of land contingent poverty alleviation schemes an application to bangladesh suggests that when income is generally unobserved landholding class is a good instrument for targeting poverty relief in that it is strongly correlated with the informationally feasible allocations which minimize aggregate poverty for a given budget it is however far from being a perfect instrument even under otherwise ideal conditions the maximum feasible reduction in poverty which is attainable by relying solely on land based targeting is substantially less than that attainable with perfect income information indeed the poverty alleviation impact of domestically financed and revenue neutral transfers across 10 landholding classes in rural bangladesh could also be achieved without targeting by simply giving every household a lump sum payment equivalent to 10 of mean rural income political restrictions on tax powers or errors made in administration will further reduce the gains from land contingent targeting greater impact on poverty for a given budgetary cost will require more precise targeting within landholding classes

china s uneven progress against poverty while the incidence of extreme poverty in china fell dramatically over 1980 2001 progress was uneven over time and across provinces rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor though migration to urban areas helped the pattern of growth mattered rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of gross domestic product gdp rising inequality within the rural sector greatly slowed poverty reduction provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against poverty due both to lower growth and a lower growth elasticity of poverty reduction taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor external trade had little short term impact

microfinance and poverty a macro perspective we test the hypothesis that microfinance reduces poverty at the macro level using cross country and panel data which are constructed by the microfinance information exchange data on microfinance institutions mfis and the world bank data taking account of the endogeneity associated with mfis loans we show that a country with higher mfis gross loan portfolio per capita tends to have lower levels of poverty indices contrary to recent micro evidence our results suggest that microfinance significantly reduces poverty at macro level and thus reinforce the case for channeling funds from development finance institutions and governments of developing countries into mfis

how well do static indicators identify the chronically poor abstract we investigate how well the most widely used static welfare indicators perform in identifying the chronically poor we propose a normative measure of performance the cost of a given impact on chronic poverty when transfers are contingent upon a purely static indicator using longitudinal household data from rural india we find that current consumption is not always a better indicator of chronic poverty than current income both however perform much better than other common indicators such as food share and access to land

why have urban poverty and income inequality increased so much argentina 1991 2001 abstract this article analyzes the trends in income inequality and poverty among argentine households during the nineties we assess the effect of changes in labor force participation unemployment educational levels and returns to individual characteristics on income inequality and poverty by using a microsimulation approach we found that unemployment accounts for a large part of the increase in income inequality and poverty experienced in the past decade changes in labor force participation had an equalizing effect over the whole period while changes in the returns to workers sociodemographic characteristics could be associated with a small increase in income inequality with respect to poverty unemployment affected negatively the proportion of households below the poverty line amplified the poverty gap and increased the severity of poverty in contrast changes in labor force participation are associated with a reduction in the poverty rate

the welfare cost of means testing pensioner participation in income support we estimate parametric and semi parametric binary choice models of benefit take up by british pensioners and use a revealed preference argument to infer the cash equivalent value of disutility arising from stigma or complexity of the claims process these implicit costs turn out to be relatively small averaging about 3 4 per week across income support recipients using the foster greer thorbecke measure of poverty among pensioners we find that allowing for implicit claim costs incurred by benefit recipients raises the measured degree of poverty by not more than 13 copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

generalized functional forms and demand for money in an open economy the case of the united kingdom the purpose of this paper are twofold first to apply a box cox model to the uk money demand relationship within an open economy framework in order to empirically investigate the proper functional form supported by the data in this general setting secondly to test for the porper scale variable in the uk money demand function within the open economy box cox specification these improvements enhance the accuracy of our measures of monetary and fiscal policy effects and our understanding of the interdependence between different economies the empirical results derived here reject the restrictive linear and log specifications in favour of the general box cox model under both income and consumption based money demand specifications the traditional income based model however escaps unharmed from the challenge put forward by mankiw and summers 1986

a macro micro analysis of the effects of electricity reform in senegal on poverty and distribution abstract this paper uses a computable general equilibrium cge macro micro model to explore the distributional effects of price reform in the electricity sector of senegal in the first part of the paper we analyse the distribution of electricity in senegal by income quintiles between 1995 and 2001 the analysis demonstrates that poor and rural households are not the main beneficiaries of the expanded network the results of the cge model show that direct price effects are weaker than general equilibrium effects on poverty and inequality moreover compensatory policies tested can help attenuate some adverse effects

equivalence scale relativities and the extent of inequality and poverty most inequality and poverty theory analyzes equivalent income distributions for homogeneous populations incomes are assumed to be deflated by an equivalence scale that accounts for differences in needs between households yet in practice there is no consensus about what the appropriate equivalence scale is the authors analyze how the choice of equivalence scale affects inequality and poverty measures and show that there is a systematic relationship between equivalence scale generosity and the extent of inequality and poverty they consider most of the measures in common use and provide some empirical illustrations copyright 1992 by royal economic society

trade liberalization and rural poverty work trade affects aggregate income and relative prices it alters investment and savings decisions and thus has intertemporal effects it may also alter tax revenues and public spending and its effects are conditioned by transport costs and location specific phenomena this makes simple measurement of the effects of trade very difficult and the attribution of causality almost impossible a problem that has long plagued the literature on trade and growth see baldwin for a survey attempts to measure the effects of trade on poverty in developing countries face additional challenges in that most of the poor are found in rural areas in farming and frequently outside of the formal economy with the consequence that their activities and incomes can be measured only very approximately the poor also reveal a frustrating to data gatherers at least tendency to move around in pursuit of job opportunities rigorous answers to important and controversial empirical questions such as whether trade liberalization reduces poverty have proved elusive

hunger inequality ethics and aid abstractthis article considers the inequality in the cross country distribution of hunger using multiple ethical underpinnings under sovereign equality each nation state receives equal weighting leading to the conclusion that hunger should be concentrated in a few large countries under the democratic ethic individuals receive equal weighting and the global distribution of hungry people is irrelevant inequality aversion deliberately prefers equal levels of hunger across countries these ideals are presented in a general social welfare function and compared to the actual changes in hunger during 1991 2001 the distribution of food aid to reduce both hunger and hunger inequality are considered

effects of exchange rate flexibility on the demand for international reserves abstract we incorporate a measure of exchange rate flexibility into the standard reserve demand equation and present empirical results for the 1976 1985 period which are consistent with the work of officer 1976 and frenkel and jovanovic 1981 indicating the existence of economies of scale and the demand for reserves

the effects of a large discrete maize price increase on the distribution of household welfare and poverty in rural kenya1 this study estimates the effects of a large discrete maize price increase on the welfare of a sample of rural kenyan households the usual first order welfare approximation formula is extended to a second order formula that allows for supply and demand responses to the price change results show that many rural households are not affected greatly by the price change and there are about as many gainers as losers however these full sample results mask important differences across regions welfare gains generally take place in major production areas while losses are in areas where most households are net buyers of maize semiparametric methods are used to investigate the relationship between income and the size of the welfare effect and poverty dominance techniques are applied to study the impacts of the maize price increase on rural poverty

on the coverage of public employment schemes for poverty alleviation abstract the cost effectiveness of public employment as a means of poverty alleviation depends on policy design choices concerning coverage and wage rates the choice is between schemes which aim for wide coverage at potentially low wages and schemes which ration participation so that more beneficiaries can escape poverty conditions are derived for ranking stylized policy alternatives in terms of a broad class of poverty measures the preferred policy is shown to depend on the budget level administrative cost the initial wage distribution and the policy maker s aversion to poverty empirical simulations for bangladesh data generally support wide coverage for distributionally sensitivity poverty measures but limited coverage for other measures

optimal non linear income taxation for the alleviation of income poverty there has been much discussion recently of structuring tax and transfer programs to ensure that resources go to the poor with minimal leaks to the nonpoor the poor have no incentive to earn income with 100 percent marginal tax rates but how high or low the marginal rate of taxation should be and how they should vary with income is a complex issue and opinions vary social security schemes that withdraw benefits represent an extremely high effective marginal tax rate other schemes call for relatively low marginal tax rates at the bottom of the income distribution which tax transfer schedule does most to reduce poverty the issue is one of optimal nonlinear income taxation the authors show that one of the key theoretical results of the welfarist literature is overturned if it is desirable for everybody to work the optimal marginal tax rate on the very poorest individuals is strictly negative they argue that the nonwelfarist perspective points toward lower marginal tax rates in the lower part of the income distribution than does the welfarist perspective but numerical simulations suggest that the effect is of limited quantitative significance using conventional functional forms and parameter values optimal marginal tax rates on the poor are in the 60 70 percent range

autoregressive modelling and money income causality detection abstract a step wise procedure based on granger s concept of causality and abaike s final prediction error criterion is suggested as a practical means to identify the order of lags of each variable in a multivariate autoregressive process the model seems useful because it can serve as a reduced form formulation to avoid imposing often spurious or false restrictions of the model it also provides a reasonably powerful test of causality the idea is applied to u s postwar money and income data it is found that between m1 and gnp a bivariate feedback model fits the data best between m2 and gnp a one way causal model from money to income performs better diagnostic checks applied to our model seem to indicate the adequacy of our approach

poverty and basic needs fulfilment in africa during structural change evidence from cote d ivoire abstract much attention is given in the literature to the evolution of social indicators during periods of structural adjustment and economic reform this paper argues that these processes are not distribution neutral from the point of view of basic needs fulfilment and that hence the focus should not be on aggregate indicators but on the distribution of beneficiaries of social services and changes in this distribution evidence is presented for cote d ivoire during the second half of the 1980s a period of intense structural change which shows that the poorest absorbed the bulk of the decline in basic needs fulfilment as a result of structural change this was the case for almost all aspects of basic needs and occurred regardless of the overall trend in the social indicators

does child undernutrition persist despite poverty reduction in developing countries quantile regression results abstract the eradication of child undernutrition and extreme poverty are important objectives for most societies countries with higher national incomes usually improve in both dimensions but not always at the same rate using quantile regression we show that poverty rates tend to decline with increased income at a roughly constant elasticity in contrast while the prevalence of child wasting declines at that same elasticity where it is most widespread the elasticity becomes smaller as wasting becomes less prevalent this finding suggests a greater need for increasingly targeted interventions to achieve a given reduction in undernutrition as its prevalence declines

the money demand function in a small open and quasi monetary economy the gambia the open economy money demand asserts that for its underlying theory to hold the variables ought to be co integrated co integrated variables although nonstationary in level can share a long term trend that is indeed stationary however the open money demand model has mainly been tested in developed and developing nations this article investigates the co integrated open economy money demand in the gambia where the macro economy is a quasi monetary system small relative to the world market but very open with a floating exchange rate regime in the co integrated space the gambian money demand appears to be quite responsive to domestic income a measure of interest rate and the real exchange rate fluctuations

real versus nominal forecast errors in the prediction of foreign exchange rates abstract imposing a small number of common but strong assumptions allows the varianve of the ex post forecast error in forward exchange rates to be decomposed into its parts that part due to errors in forecasting relative inflation the nominal error and that part due to real shocks for a sample of large and small industrial countries we show that real shocks have been predominant in the post bretton woods world this result implies that models of exchange rate determination which do not explicitly incorporate real shocks are inappropriate for explaining recent exchange rate volatility

concepts of poverty and the poverty line abstract various approaches adopted in developed economies to distinguishing between the poor and non poor to setting a poverty line are reviewed these include the budget standard food ratio official subjective and relative poverty line methods as well as the analysis of indicators of deprivation there has been significant progress in recent years in the degree of sophistication involved and a movement away from approaches with a quasi absolute background however all the methods face formidable problems at conceptual and empirical levels and no single approach is likely to dominate

a note on pro poor growth this paper proposes a poverty growth curve that measures whether economic growth is pro poor or not propoor our methodology is developed based on atkinson s theorem linking the generalized lorenz curve and changes in poverty this methodology is applied to both thailand s unit record household surveys and international cross country data empirical study illustrates that our approach to measuring pro poor growth provides conclusive results in the majority of cases d 2004 elsevier b v all rights reserved

cointegration real exchange rate and modelling the demand for broad money in japan the literature on the demand for the japan s broad money addresses two controversial issues the form log level or log difference in which variables enter the money demand function and the question of whether financial innovation and deregulation caused shift s in the money demand relationship log level specifications of the money demand function have been shown to exhibit large shifts whereas log first differences and error correction specifications do not our paper demonstrates that the appropriate specification for the japanese money demand function is that which uses cointegration and error correction procedures

poverty and inequality in java examining the impact of the changing age educational and industrial structure abstract this paper uses the method of dinardo et al dinardo j fortin n m lemieux t 1996 labor market institutions and the distribution of wages 1973 1992 a semiparametric approach econometrica 64 5 sept 1001 1044 to examine the distribution of the benefits of growth in java dinardo et al s method presents the decompositions visually rather than in the form of opaque summary statistics in this paper it was modified so that changes in the cumulative distribution functions lorenz curves and generalized lorenz curves are decomposed the change in the distribution of per capita income between 1984 and 1990 is related to the aging of the population decreased reliance on agriculture increased educational attainment and changes in incomes within industry and age education categories

the impact of coffee certification on small scale producers livelihoods a case study from the jimma zone ethiopia what is the impact of product certification on small scale farmers livelihoods to what extent does the participation of ethiopian small scale coffee farmers in certified local cooperative structures improve their socioeconomic situation to answer these questions this article employs household data of 249 coffee farmers from six different cooperatives collected in the jimma zone of southwestern ethiopia in 2009 findings show that the certification of coffee cooperatives has in total a low impact on small scale coffee producers livelihoods mainly due to 1 low productivity 2 insignificant price premium and 3 poor access to credit and information from the cooperative differences in production and organizational capacities between the local cooperatives are mirrored in the extent of the certification benefits for the smallholders good cooperatives have reaped the benefits of certification whereas bad ones did not fare well in this regard the cooperative effect overlies the certification effect

why have some indian states done better than others at reducing rural poverty the unevenness of the rise in rural living standards in the various states of india since the 1950s allowed the authors to study the causes of poverty they modeled the evolution of average consumption and various poverty measures using pooled state level data for 1957 91 they found that poverty was reduced by higher agricultural yields above trend growth in nonfarm output and lower inflation rates but these factors only partly explain relative success and failure in reducing poverty initial conditions also mattered states that started the period with better infrastructure and human resources with more intense irrigation greater literacy and lower infant mortality rates had significantly greater long term rates of consumption growth and poverty reduction by and large the same variables that promoted growth in average consumption also helped reduce poverty the effects on poverty measures were partly redistributive in nature after controlling for inflation the authors found that some of the factors that helped reduce absolute poverty also improved distribution and none of the factors that reduced absolute poverty had adverse impacts on distribution in other words there was no sign of tradeoffs between growth and pro poor distribution

a re examination of the demand for money in small developing economies this paper re examines the money demand function in three small open economies of asia korea pakistan and singapore in addition to using the relatively new procedure of error correction modelling the roles of variables such as a the expected change in the exchange rate b foregin interest rates and c foreign exchange risks on money demand are examined in testing the importance of these variables in the money demand function special attention is paid to testing the assumptions of the classical linear regression model the sample period for each country spans from 1973 1 through 1990 1 the empirical results suggest that the error correction specification performs very well in addition to the traditional variables the results suggest that at least some measure of foreign monetary developments appear to have some significant effect on money demand behaviour in these small developing economies

poverty transition and persistence in ethiopia 1994 2004 summary this study analyzes the persistence of poverty in both rural and urban areas in ethiopia during 1994 2004 the key finding is that households move frequently in and out of poverty but the difficulty of exiting from poverty like the chance of avoiding slipping back increases with the time spent in that state and varies considerably between male and female headed households our results imply that it is important to design anti poverty policies both to hinder households from slipping into extreme poverty and to minimize the length of the poverty spell for households once they have fallen into it

one kind of freedom poverty dynamics in post apartheid south africa abstract a 1993 south african living standards survey documented the legacy of apartheid in the form high levels of inequality and human insecurity drawing on a 1998 re survey of households in the 1993 study this paper explores whether this legacy has been superseded or whether apartheid s end has been only one kind of freedom that has left households in a poverty trap from which they cannot escape after proposing a theoretically grounded dynamic poverty typology that distinguishes stochastic from structural poverty transitions the paper goes on to estimate that significant numbers of the south african poor are potentially trapped in a structural poverty trap and lack the means to escape poverty over time

currency substitution and nonlinear error correction in taiwan s demand for broad money we modify the conventional money demand function by including a real exchange rate variable to reflect the effect of currency substitution empirical evidence indicates that the variable is crucial to the long run stability of taiwan s money demand after finding the failure of a linear error correction model ecm in describing the dynamics of taiwan s money demand we apply a nonlinear ecm to examine its dynamics and support the appropriateness of the nonlinear model empirically

measuring welfare poverty and inequality a class of poverty measures is identified the members of which satisfy strong monotonicity and transfer conditions these measures are closely related to indices of income inequality based on the notion of a mean equivalent income a restriction on the class of admissible measures allows poverty to be interpreted in terms of the loss in mean equivalent income resulting from the fact that some people are poor copyright 1987 by royal economic society

equity regarding poverty measures differences in needs and the role of equivalence scales the paper investigates the definition of equity regarding poverty measures when there are different household types in the population it demonstrates the implications of a between type regressive transfer principle for poverty measures for the choice of poverty lines and for the measurement of living standard the role of equivalence scales which are popular in empirical work on poverty measurement is clarified ce memoire examine la definition de mesures de pauvrete fondees sur l equite quand existent differents types de menages dans la population on montre les implications d un principe de transfert regressif entre types de menages pour les mesures de pauvrete pour la definition des seuils de pauvrete et pour la mesure du niveau de vie on clarifie le role des echelles d equivalence qui sont d un usage generalise dans les travaux sur la mesure de la pauvrete

food standards certification and poverty among coffee farmers in uganda summary voluntary standards are gaining in importance in global markets for high value foods we analyze and compare impacts of three sustainability oriented standards fairtrade organic and utz on the livelihoods of smallholder coffee farmers in uganda using survey data and propensity score matching with multiple treatments we find that fairtrade certification increases household living standards by 30 and reduces the prevalence and depth of poverty for the other two certification schemes no significant impacts are found several factors that can explain differential impacts are discussed overly general statements about the effects of sustainability standards on smallholder livelihoods may be misleading

exchange rate sensitivity of demand for money and effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies one of the arguments between proponents and opponents of floating exchange rates centres around the relative effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy while proponents of floating rates argue that monetary policy is more effective under floating rates its opponents contend that fiscal policy is more effective under fixed rates however economic theory suggests that there is room for both policies under both types of exchange rate system depending upon degree of sterlization concentrating on the floating rates mundell 1963 has argued that the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies would also depend upon sensitivity of money demand to exchange rate more precisely he has conjectured that the demand for money is likely to depend upon the exchange rate in addition to the interest rate and the level of income this would slightly reduce the effectiveness of a given change in the quantity of money and slightly increase the effectiveness of fiscal policy on income and employment under

policy uncertainty and the demand for money in the united kingdom limited studies that have assessed the impact of economic uncertainty on the demand for money have concentrated on using a volatility measure of money supply and output certainly other factors such as regulation taxes budget deficits national debt etc can contribute to an uncertain environment this new measure of uncertainty which is called policy uncertainty is now constructed for several countries and published we investigate the impact of this new measure on the demand for money in the uk and find that it has a negative and significant short run effect but not any log run effects