agricultural economics challenges to the profession anniversaries whether related to age marital status or the life of an organization are highly arbitrary anniversaries merely serve to accentuate the obvious and to create benchmarks in the continuum of life the fact that the american agricultural economics association is approaching its seventy fifth year might not merit more than passing comment except that agricultural economics may be moving into the most important and possibly the most turbulent period in the history of the profession the work done by agricultural economists and the decisions made within the profession in the next few years promise to be extraordinarily influential not only in terms of the future of agricultural economics but in terms of the welfare of the entire human family

the role of decentralized generation and storage technologies in future energy systems planning for a rural agglomeration in switzerland abstract this study presents a framework to quantitatively evaluate decentralized generation and storage technology dgst performance and policy impacts in a rural setting the role of dgsts in the future energy systems planning of a rural agglomeration in switzerland is examined using a cost optimization modeling approach heat and electricity demand for major sectors are considered scenarios introduce dgsts in a stepwise manner to measure incremental impacts on future capacity planning compared to a baseline scenario sub scenarios also examine the impacts of carbon mitigation policies and a sensitivity analysis is carried out for key energy carriers and conversion technologies dgsts enable a significant reduction in electricity grid usage for the community considered small hydro with a storage reservoir and photovoltaics enable the community to become largely self sufficient with over 80 reductions in grid imports by 2050 compared to the baseline scenario storage enables maximum usage of the available hydro potential which also leads to network upgrade deferrals and a significant increase in photovoltaic installations investment decisions in small hydro are robust against cost variations while heating technology investment decisions are sensitive to oil and grid electricity prices carbon pricing policies are found to be effective in mitigating local fossil fuel emissions

distributed energy infrastructure paradigm community microgrids in a new institutional economics context abstract this paper provides a theoretical framework based on new institutional economics nie concepts to guide the development of community microgrids given limited application thus far of such energy systems this paper also draws on empirical studies and experiences from the planning and development of other public community infrastructure and utility services in the development of this framework it links an efficient ownership and governance structure with transactional characteristics such as asset idiosyncrasy frequency and uncertainty defined in section 3 1 the key role of the customers and the microgrid service provider and more specifically their bilateral monopoly relationship and its effects on the choice of institutional structure is highlighted the paper examines the optimum conditions for public private or hybrid financial ownership and for unified or network governance through long term contracting this allows ex ante investment uncertainty and ex post appropriation risks to be efficiently managed the analysis suggests that long term contract completeness future demand for electricity and level of uncertainty are the determining factors in the selection of institutional structure this has significant real world implications for the communities seeking to achieve electricity self sufficiency and environmental benefits through community microgrids service providers and other private or public actors

the continuing search for relevance in agricultural economics agricultural economists have published thought provoking papers on the problems of the land grant system lgs in general as well as discussions of how agricultural economists can adjust resident teaching research and outreach programs to provide more relevant educational materials for society some of the recommendations presented must be implemented by individual universities government agencies institutes research groups or businesses others can be implemented by the american agricultural economics association aaea the association has responded to some of these ideas adjusting the composition of the program at the annual meeting and providing some additional services to members given the demand

the information content of annual earnings releases a trading volume approach this paper reports the results of an empirical examination of the relations between the volume of securities traded the magnitude of surprises in annual earnings announcements and firm size although early trading volume studies e g beaver 1968 kiger 1972 and foster 1973 replicated basic information content studies with findings similar to those based on security prices we should not expect that security price and trading volume research will continue to yield identical results when more refined hypotheses are tested trading volume reflects investors activity by summing all market trades whereas security prices reflect an aggregation or averaging of investors beliefs as a result we will on occasion observe differences between price and volume reactions to earnings announcements as did morse 1981 this study extends the recent trend toward tests of more refined hypotheses by using a larger sample to examine the associations between unexpected earnings firm size and trading volume and testing whether such associations can be generalized across fiscal year end dates and stock exchange listing my results show a continuous positive relationship between trading

how does the stock market absorb shocks abstract using a comprehensive set of news stories we find a stark difference in market responses to positive and negative price shocks accompanied by new information when there is a news story about a firm positive price shocks are followed by reversal while negative ones result in drift this is interpreted as the stock market overreaction to good news and underreaction to bad news these seemingly contradictory results can be explained in a single framework considering the interaction of retail investors with attention bias and arbitrageurs with short run capital constraints consistent with this hypothesis we find that both patterns are stronger when the attention bias is stronger and when the arbitrage capital is scarce

germany s solar cell promotion dark clouds on the horizon abstract this article demonstrates that the large feed in tariffs currently guaranteed for solar electricity in germany constitute a subsidization regime that threatens to reach a level comparable to that of german hard coal production a notoriously outstanding example of misguided political intervention yet as a consequence of the coexistence of the german renewable energy sources act eeg and the eu emissions trading scheme ets the increased use of renewable energy technologies does not imply any additional emission reductions beyond those already achieved by ets alone similarly disappointing is the net employment balance which is likely to be negative if one takes into account the opportunity cost of this form of solar photovoltaic pv support along the lines of the international energy agency iea 2007 energy policies of iea countries germany 2007 review international energy agency oecd paris p 77 we recommend the immediate and drastic reduction of the magnitude of the feed in tariffs granted for solar based electricity ultimately producing electricity on this basis is among the most expensive greenhouse gas abatement options

a theory of trading volume a theory of trading volume is developed based on assumptions that market agents frequently revise their demand prices and randomly encounter potential trading partners the model describes two distinct ways informational events affect trading volume one is consistent with conjectures made by empirical researchers that investor disagreement leads to increased trading but the observation of abnormal trading volume does not necessarily imply disagreement and volume can increase even if investors interpret the information identically if they also have had divergent prior expectations simulation tests support the model and are used to contrast the random pairing environment with costless market clearing volume is lower in the costly market and volume increases caused by an informational event persist after the event period this is consistent with existing empirical evidence and suggests that markets do not immediately clear all orders or that investors have demands to recontract

psychological factors and stock option exercise we investigate stock option exercise decisions by over 50 000 employees at seven corporations controlling for economic factors psychological factors influence exercise consistent with psychological models of beliefs employees exercise in response to stock price trends exercise is positively related to stock returns during the preceding month and negatively related to returns over longer horizons consistent with psychological models of values that include reference points employee exercise activity roughly doubles when the stock price exceeds the maximum price attained during the previous year

stock price reactions to lifo adoptions the association between excess returns and lifo tax savings although long a topic of accounting research little is known about the motives for or effects of voluntary changes in accounting techniques among the motives which have been suggested are attempts by managers to smooth reported earnings gordon 1964 copeland 1968 cushing 1969 white 1972 and ronen and sadan 1981 to influence man agement compensation to reduce regulatory or political costs watts and zimmerman 1978 and to avoid bond covenant restrictions holthausen 1981 while some of these motives may be consistent with a market value rule they often fail to provide unambiguous accounting change predictions e g which accounting changes result in lower regulatory costs moreover empirical verification has been constrained by the unobservability of the variables to which the managers allegedly respond the stock price reaction which should be expected for a given account ing change depends not only on its implications for the valuation of securities but also on the extent to which the implications are already known or anticipated by investors 3 ultimately our ability to detect these stock price effects if any depends on the power of our tests previous studies of the effects of accounting changes have generally not found significant stock price reactions archibald 1972 ball 1972 kaplan and roll 1972 harrison 1977 and holthausen 1981 4 for the most part these studies dealt with accounting changes which had no direct cash flow effects in contrast changes in inventory costing methods especially those involving the last in first out lifo cost flow assumption can generate potentially large changes in a firm s cash flows due to their impact on taxable earnings these cash flow effects provide not only a motive for lifo changes5 which is consistent with the market value rule but also implications for associated stock price effects if investors react to lifo s cash flow implications rather than to its effects on reported earnings then positive stock price adjustments should be associated with lifo adjustments however the evidence from previous studies of stock price reactions to lifo adoptions is inconclusive ball 1972 sunder 1973 1975 abdel khalik and mckeown 1978 brown 1980 and ricks 1982 while several factors may account for these results see section 2 it can be noted that the previous studies have considered only a dichotomous variable whether or not a firm has adopted lifo yet because the cash flow consequences of a lifo adoption decision depend on a number of firm specific factors this approach ignores potentially large differences among firms in the economic consequences of lifo adoptions most firms switching to lifo now reveal in their financial statement disclosures the tax savings which have been realized this study uses these disclosures to examine the association between unsystematic re turns and the magnitudes of first year lifo tax savings for all nyse firms which adopted or extended their use of lifo during the period 1972 80 subject to data availability 6 the research design employs within group comparisons based on cumulative monthly unsystematic excess returns with appropriate controls for unexpected earnings per formance 7 this design avoids several methodological weaknesses inherent in the previous studies and allows more definitive tests of hypotheses relating investor reactions to the income and cash flow effects of lifo adoptions as reported more fully below results based on lifo adoptions made in 1974 are consistent with a positive association between cumulative excess stock returns and the magnitudes of lifo tax savings 8 the results also provide evidence that changes in systematic risk may accompany lifo adoptions however contrary to previous studies most of the sample firms exhibit downward rather than upward changes in systematic risk section 2 reviews the previous studies of stock price reactions to lifo adoptions and suggests explanations for their results section 3 discusses the alternative approach employed in this study while section 4 describes the test methodologies employed the data and data selection procedures are described in section 5 the results and a discussion are presented in section 6 section 7 offers some conclusions

trading on inside information evidence from the share structure reform in china abstract we examine stock trading activities in days before chinese listed firms made public announcement to start share structure reform there is significant evidence that relative to a benchmark period institutional investors bought more event firms shares in the last two trading days prior to announcement randomization tests show significant differences in institutional trading activities between event firms and matched control firms which suggests that some institutions had inside information moreover large trades account for a significant proportion of daily stock price changes in the last 2 days the evidence is consistent with the prediction by holden and subrahmanyam 1992 that when multiple informed investors acquire the same piece of information they will trade aggressively we also find that over the reform period the median share value change of event firms is 6 higher than that of control firms our findings have important implications for enforcement of insider trading regulations in china

return autocorrelation and institutional investors abstract we propose and test the hypothesis that trading by institutional investors contributes to serial correlation in daily returns our results demonstrate that nyse particles and individual security daily return autocorrelationsare an increasing function of the level of institutional ownership moreover the results are consistent with the hypothesis that institutional trading reflects information and increases the speed of price adjustment the relation between autocorrelation and institutional holdings does not however apparent to be driven by market frictions or rational time varying required rates of return we conclude that institutional investors correlated trading patterns contribute to axial correlation in daily returns

optimizing an emission trading scheme for local governments a stackelberg game model and hybrid algorithm this study investigates a policy making problem for a local government to implement an emission trading scheme by considering the interactive production decisions of firms in its administrative region the market based allowance trading price formed freely among the firms in the region is investigated by taking into account regional environmental bearing capacities under the scheme the government sets the emission reduction target of the region and allocates tradable initial allowances to firms and firms plan their production according to their allowances on hand a stackelberg game model is formulated to analyze the decisions of the government and firms aiming to maximize the social welfare of the region and maximize the profit of each firm in view of the non concavity and discreteness of the decision model for the government we propose a hybrid algorithm to solve the game model efficiently this algorithm consists of a polynomial time dynamic programming binary search and genetic algorithm results reveal that i the stackelberg game model greatly supports local governments policy making on the market driven emission allowance trading scheme and that ii the social welfare is a great metric for policy making decisions on environmental regulations the market driven emission trading scheme is an effective mechanism for local governments to induce emission reduction through green technology adoption by firms however governments should set their emission reduction targets appropriately because a tight or easy regulation policy significantly affects the environmental and economic benefits as well as the social welfare

the accuracy of the tick test evidence from the australian stock exchange abstract in the absence of information regarding whether a trade is buyer or seller initiated many researchers have employed the tick rule as a proxy these researchers have been supported in their endeavours by the work of lee and ready 1991 which suggests that the tick rule is 90 accurate unfortunately the difficulty of securing data on this issue has made lee and ready s paper somewhat unique in that there have been few attempts to confirm their result in us markets and no attempts in other markets the purpose of this work is to test the robustness of their result in the australian securities market using cleaner intra day data we mimic the lee and ready study to cast some doubt upon the robustness of their findings in different markets our results suggest an overall accuracy of approximately 74 as opposed to lee and ready s 90 however accuracy in excess of 90 is documented when zero ticks are excluded further analysis provides evidence that a volatile or trending market will decrease the accuracy of the tick rule it is also demonstrated that the tick rule is less likely to accurately classify seller initiated trades and small buyer initiated trades

the value of diffusing information abstract how does the speed by which information diffuses affect its value to a stock market investor in a structural model solved in closed form this speed has two opposing effects on the empirically dominant term of the value of information faster diffusing information means quicker and less noisy profits but also increases competing informed trading impounding more information into prices and eroding profits structural empirical analysis of stock market reaction to drug approvals using media coverage as a proxy for the transmission rate of information finds that the value of information is hump shaped in its future transmission rate moreover the estimated amount of noise trading is small

models for quantifying the economic benefits of distributed generation we examine some of the most important economic benefits brought about by distributed generation technologies to the distribution utility and the power system models are developed that allow the quantification of those benefits in economic terms in some cases industry regulators or utilities charge connection fees to the owners of distributed generators even if they are saving the local utility considerable amounts of money every year in deferred network upgrades reduced losses avoided wholesale market purchases and others efficient economic systems dictate that a proper share of the indirect benefits created by a given economic activity leads to overall optimal independent decision making by its participants quantifying and allocating the benefits of distributed generation to the owners improves the economic performance of their investments and encourages the implementation of those distributed generation applications most valuable to the system

predisclosure information firm capitalization and security price behavior around earnings announcements several studies on the relationship between earnings reports and security price behavior provide evidence suggesting that a significant portion of the information revealed through earnings reports is reflected in security prices prior to the report month e g ball and brown 1968 and brown and kennelly 1972 this has been attributed at least partly to the existence of other more timely sources of information which allow market agents to forecast earnings prior to their release the evidence above reflects an average finding across all firms one question of interest is whether there are significant systematic crosssectional differences in the security price reactions to earnings announcements of firms which are associated with specific firm characteristics that lead to differential amounts of predisclosure information this study focuses on firm size capitalization as one such characteristic a firm

residential energy efficiency and distributed generation natural partners or competition abstract residential energy efficiency and distributed generation seem to be natural partners in our journey towards a more sustainable energy future a growing range of energy efficient consumer technologies and extraordinary declines in photovoltaics system prices has seen household electricity demand fall whilst a growing proportion of the remaining load is provided by household self generation australia is a particularly interesting example of these developments with around 15 of households now possessing a pv system while per capita household demand has also fallen markedly however existing retail electricity tariffs and regulatory arrangements can create mixed incentives for households contemplating both pv and energy efficiency options and for their network service providers this is certainly the case in australia with net metering arrangements that value self consumption of pv far more than pv exports to the grid there are also complex benefits for the electricity network created by these household energy resources that can be significant in this paper we use real household load and pv data from sydney households to model the potential implications of existing electricity tariff arrangements on the financial attractiveness of pv and energy efficiency we model these options separately and in combination for both households implementing these options and their network service providers our results highlight how inappropriate tariffs may well adversely impact on the value that the combination of energy efficiency and pv offers not only to households but also to their network service providers and suggest ways that such impacts might be ameliorated by acknowledging the benefits that these resources can offer to the electricity network

make or buy it is the question a study in the presence of carbon tax abstract in this paper we explore make or buy decision of a manufacturer taking the effect of carbon tax ct into account we characterize the optimal strategies including the production quantity wholesale price and ct rate with the ct rate considered exogenous or endogenous respectively we also examine the optimal make or buy strategies for the manufacturer under different levels of ct rate in addition we conduct an analysis for the government regarding when it should or should not regulate the ct rate with the studies some significant managerial findings are obtained for the make or buy decision making in the presence of ct in particular it is found that in addition to ct rate level the ratio between marginal environmental cost and marginal gross profit of the product without excluding ct can essentially affect whether or not the government should regulate the ct rate

on the quantification of the network capacity deferral value of distributed generation this paper presents an approach to the quantification of the distribution network capacity deferral value of distributed generation dg besides different technical benefits such as reliability and power quality improvement there are a number of economic benefits related to dg the most important of which being the end user electricity bill reduction capability however since the onset of the implementation of these technologies the potential of dg to defer investments on distribution wires and transformers was soon realized to the point that non wire solutions are now considered as an alternative to network upgrades in this work a first approximation to the capacity deferral benefits brought about by dg is obtained such approach can be the starting point towards the development of a framework of credits to the owners of dg that fully and fairly recognize the deferral benefits provided to the utility the financial performance of investments on these important technologies can be then improved thus broadening dg as a viable market alternative for customers and utilities

regulatory practices and distribution system cost impact studies for distributed generation considerations for south african distribution utilities and regulators abstract south africa has introduced renewable energy generation to its grid by means of a competitive bidding process this has been successful as it has quickly introduced renewable generation and has reduced the cost generation significantly over the three rounds of bids submitted the introduction of distributed renewable generation has consequences for the operation and regulation of its distribution networks this paper reviews international practices to establish the cost and benefits of distributed generation to distribution system operators as well as regulatory rules that affect them impact studies for several european distribution system operators are discussed and the main impacts of distributed generation on distribution networks are identified as being voltage rise increased fault levels losses reduced power flows upstream and the deferral of investments regulation of renewable generation in south africa is compared with a range of european countries south africa has implemented a shallowish network charge regime for distributed generators this lowers costs for generators connecting to the network however this has introduced the risk of projects being unable to connect due to deep transmission networks that require funding

are trade size based inferences about traders reliable evidence from institutional earnings related trading the use of observed transaction sizes to differentiate between small and large investor trading patterns is widespread a significant concern in such studies is spurious effects attributable to misclassification of transactions particularly those originating from large investors such effects can arise unintentionally strategically or endogenously we examine comprehensive records of a sample of institutional investors i e large traders including their order sizes and overall position changes to assess the degree to which such misclassifications give rise to spurious inferences about small and large investor trading activities our analysis shows that these institutions are heavily involved in small transaction activity it also shows that they increase their order sizes substantially in announcement periods relative to nonannouncement periods presumably as an endogenous response to earnings news in the immediate earnings announcement period transaction size based inferences about directional trading are quite misleading producing spurious small trader effects and more surprisingly erroneous inferences about large trader activity

climate policy instruments and industry effects and potential responses in the swedish context efficient policy instruments for reducing the emission of greenhouse gases are essential for the realization of a successful climate policy general economic policy instruments have the potential for providing efficient emission reduction as they equalise marginal costs for emission reduction between different actors they also provide incentives for a great variety of responses such as energy efficiency improvements fuel substitution and reduced consumption of carbon intensive products however as a result of the fact that it has so far been impossible to implement policy instruments on a global scale these instruments are often adapted in such a way that some of their potential advantages are eliminated in this paper the possibility of different policy instruments to contribute to reductions in industrial co2 emissions while preserving the competitiveness of industry is evaluated theoretically the consequences of increasing the cost of co2 emission in various industrial sectors are also discussed attention is directed towards carbon taxes emission trading and regulation co2 taxes without tax reductions and emission trading with allocation through auctioning have theoretical advantages in a global climate regime but may lead to significant disadvantages if implemented in a single or a small groups of countries emission trading with free intensity based allocation would in this case have a major advantage in combining incentives for emission reductions through efficiency improvements and fuel substitution with little impact on production levels less

a methodology for understanding the impacts of large scale penetration of micro combined heat and power co generation at small kw e scale has been stimulated in recent years by governments and energy regulators as one way to increasing energy efficiency and reducing co2emissions if a widespread adoption should be realized their effects from a system s point of view are crucial to understand the contributions of this technology based on a methodology that uses long term capacity planning expansion this paper explores some of the implications for an electric power system of having a large number of micro chps results show that fuel cells based micro chps have the best and most consistent performance for different residential demands from the customer and system s perspectives as the penetration increases at important levels gas based technologies particularly combined cycle units are displaced in capacity and production which impacts the operation of the electric system during summer peak hours other results suggest that the tariff design impacts the economic efficiency of the system and the operation of micro chps under a price based strategy finally policies aimed at micro chps should consider the suitability of the technology in size and heat to power ratio to meet individual demands the operational complexities of a large penetration and the adequacy of the economic signals to incentivize an efficient and sustainable operation more highlights capacity displacements and daily operation of an electric power system are explored benefits depend on energy mix prices and micro chp technology and control scheme benefits are observed mostly in winter when micro chp heat and power are fully used micro chps mostly displace installed capacity from natural gas combined cycle units and tariff design impacts economic efficiency of the system and operation of micro chps less

earnings news and small traders an intraday analysis abstract this study separates trading volume into buyer and seller initiated activities and examines the directional volume reaction in small and large trades to different types of earnings news good bad news triggers brief but intense buying selling in the large trades however a persistent period of unusually high buying activity is observed in the small trades irrespective of the news this anomalous proclivity of small traders to buy is robust across firm size trading volume and different earnings expectation models several explanations are discussed although the behavior does not seem fully explained by existing theories

the role of decentralized distributed generation in achieving universal rural electrification in south asia by 2030 this study is motivated by the goal of achieving universal energy access by 2030 and looks at electricity access for rural households in the south asian region the message access model is employed to assess the cost effectiveness of centralized and decentralized distributed generation ddg technologies delivery mechanisms are modelled to include mini grid and stand alone systems and the analysis includes an estimation of rural household electricity demand from lighting and appliances we assume two future demand scenarios with a minimum threshold and a higher threshold of electricity consumption of 65 and 420 kw h per household per year respectively we find that the cost of delivering electricity by centralized generation and grid distribution is up to four times the cost of stand alone and mini grid ddg options in the case of minimum threshold demand scenario these results are robust to alternate assumptions regarding costs of technologies we also estimate that public subsidy bill for kerosene can be substantially reduced if all households switch to electricity as their primary source of lighting thus promoting ddg options can reduce capital investments needed to meet access goals significantly and have an important role to play in meeting the goal of universal electrification by 2030

electricity generation from renewables in the united states resource potential current usage technical status challenges strategies policies and future directions abstract in order to secure the energy future and protect the environment the u s is looking for renewable resources to meet the increasing energy demands for its electricity sector which accounts for 40 of total u s energy consumption in 2011 the overall aim of this article is to summarize the possible approaches that can be used to improve and optimize the utilization of renewables for electricity generation in the united states first an overview is presented about the resource potential current usage and technical status of electricity generation from renewables in the united states second a number of economic operational regulatory sustainability and technical challenges that are likely to be encountered are identified third strategies are outlined that can be used to minimize costs deal with the spatial nature of renewables smooth temporal variations associated with intermittency and achieve successful integration of electricity generated from renewable resources into the u s power grid fourth a sustainability assessment framework for renewable resource deployment for electricity generation in the u s is discussed the framework considers multiple criteria including cost environmental and social impacts thus giving a comprehensive assessment of each renewable energy resource for electricity generation in the united states fifth the current u s renewable energy policy is analyzed and rigorous recommendations are made for optimizing future u s renewable energy policy that can permanently induce a long term sustainable shift towards electricity generation from renewables finally directions for future research are highlighted

distributed generation storage demand response and energy efficiency as alternatives to grid capacity enhancement the need for investment in capital intensive electricity networks is on the rise in many countries a major advantage of distributed resources is their potential for deferring investments in distribution network capacity however utilizing the full benefits of these resources requires addressing several technical economic and regulatory challenges a significant barrier pertains to the lack of an efficient market mechanism that enables this concept and also is consistent with business model of distribution companies under an unbundled power sector paradigm this paper proposes a market oriented approach termed as contract for deferral scheme cds the scheme outlines how an economically efficient portfolio of distributed generation storage demand response and energy efficiency can be integrated as network resources to reduce the need for grid capacity and defer demand driven network investments

the earnings announcement premium around the globe abstract u s stocks have been shown to earn higher returns during earnings announcement months than during non announcement months we document that this earnings announcement premium exists across the globe moreover it is not isolated to a few countries of the 20 countries with enough data to conduct a within country analysis nine exhibit a significantly positive premium a cross country analysis finds that the premium is strongest in countries with the greatest increase in idiosyncratic volatility around the time of their firms earnings announcements suggesting that uncertainty over the earnings information to be disclosed is a primary driver of the global announcement premium

google search keywords that best predict energy price volatility abstract internet search activity data has been widely used as an instrument to approximate trader attention in different markets this method has proven effective in predicting market indices in the short term however little attention has been paid to demonstrating search activity for keywords that best grab investor attention in different markets this study attempts to build the best practically possible proxy for attention in the market for energy commodities using google search data specifically we confirm the utility of google search activity for energy related keywords are significant predictors of volatility by showing they have incremental predictive power beyond the conventional garch models in predicting volatility for energy commodities prices starting with a set of ninety terms used in the energy sector the study uses a multistage filtering process to create combinations of keywords that best predict the volatility of crude oil brent and west texas intermediate conventional gasoline new york harbor and us gulf coast heating oil new york harbor and natural gas prices for each commodity combinations that enhance garch most effectively are established as proxies of attention the results indicate investor attention is widely reflected in internet search activities and demonstrate search data for what keywords best reveal the direction of concern and attention in energy markets

the mainstream in agricultural economics research the title of this session suggests the continuing concern about the content of our collective research activity as a profession although not all of the agricultural economics research activity is performed by members of the american agricultural economics association aaea or even by those who hold degrees in agricultural economics much of our discussion will deal with the profession as represented by the aaea the interest and debate about the research mix of our profession is not new and has surfaced in many forms dating back to the origins of our association when the discussion was centered on the differing perspectives of farm management and agricultural economics taylor and taylor since that time the question of general research orientation has been posed in different terms basic versus applied research problem solving versus disciplinary research harl relevance allin kelso and accountability nielson needs and evaluations of theory have also appeared in our journal johnson jones these debates deal primarily with research orientation there is also the question of the real world problem focus of our research e g bishop given our available theories and methods what are the empirical problems that receive our attention at times the diversity of views in our profession on both research orientation and problem choice seems to cause disruption and polarization and at other times the tension is creative it is clearly desirable from time to time to scrutinize both what we are

discussion of anomalous stock returns around internet firms earnings announcements abstract trueman wong and zhang twz investigate an apparent anomaly in the pricing of internet firms around their earnings announcements which they attribute to price pressure the discussion addresses three concerns the paper is unusual in choosing an event earnings announcements that does not appear to have an obvious non information related reason for triggering unjustified changes in demand for the firm s shares relatedly there are limitations to the tests made of the price pressure hypothesis finally the discussion elaborates on twz s brief mention of the difficulties with implementing a profitable trading strategy based on the stock return pattern they document

the ex ante and ex post price effects of quarterly earnings announcements reflected in option and stock prices the subject of this study is the effect of investors anticipations of impending informative disclosures on the behavior of option and stock prices our approach introduced in a previous paper patell and wolfson 1979 and substantially extended here represents the following significant departure from traditional information content studies instead of analyzing security price reactions to announcements we analyze preannouncement option prices in order to discern investors beliefs about the range of possible stock price reactions expected to accompany a forthcoming disclosure whose actual content is not yet known in the tests reported here we focus on quarterly earnings announcements as disclosure events whose timing is predictable and we attempt to detect their systematic influence on the relationship between stock and option prices our operational definition of information content emphasizes changes in the variability of common stock returns in response to earnings disclosures while market efficiency precludes investors from predicting the direction of the stock price change which will accompany a future earnings announcement it is likely that investors will anticipate increased price variability at the time of disclosure and indeed several studies have documented announcement date increases in stock price volatility

the association between accounting earnings and security returns for large and small firms abstract the differential information hypothesis advanced by atiase 1980 states that information production and dissemination by private parties for the purpose of identifying mispriced securities is an increasing function of firm size this study examines two corollaries of that hypothesis first security prices of large firms anticipate accounting earnings earlier than security prices of small firms second for a given level of unexpected earnings the cumulative abnormal returns of small firms exceed those of large firms the results are generally consistent with atiase s hypothesis

informed trading before positive vs negative earnings surprises abstract this paper investigates whether institutional investors trade profitably around the announcements of positive or negative earnings surprises using korean data over the period of 2001 2010 we find that information asymmetry is larger before negative earnings surprises earnings shock among investors and that the trading volume decreases only before earnings shock announcements due to the severe information asymmetry we also find that institutions sell their stocks prior to earnings shock announcements whereas individual and foreign investors do not anticipate bad news finally we find that institutional trade imbalance is positively related to the post announcement abnormal returns of negative events this study complements and extends prior literature on informed trading around earnings announcements by documenting evidence that domestic institutions exploit their superior information around particularly earnings shock announcements

design of an economically efficient feed in tariff structure for renewable energy development abstract evidence suggests albeit tentatively that feed in tariffs fits are more effective than alternative support schemes in promoting renewable energy technologies rets fits provide long term financial stability for investors in rets which at the prevailing market price of electricity are not currently cost efficient enough to compete with traditional fossil fuel technologies on the other hand if not properly designed fits can be economically inefficient as is widely regarded to have been the case under the public utility regulatory policies act of 1978 purpa under purpa too high a guaranteed price led to the creation of so called purpa machines poorly performing generating units that could survive financially only because of heavy subsidies that came at the expense of retail customers similarly because of their adverse impacts on retail electricity rates german fits have been subject to increasing political pressure from utilities and customers in this paper we propose an innovative two part fit consisting of both a capacity payment and a market based energy payment which can be used to meet the renewables policy goals of regulators our two part tariff design draws on the strengths of traditional fits relies on market mechanisms is easy to implement and avoids the problems caused by distorting wholesale energy markets through above market energy payments the approach is modeled on forward capacity market designs that have been recently implemented by several regional transmission organizations in the usa to address needs for new generating capacity to ensure system reliability

do security analysts speak in two tongues why do security analysts issue overly positive recommendations we propose a novel approach to distinguish strategic motives e g generating small investor purchases and pleasing management from nonstrategic motives genuine overoptimism we argue that nonstrategic distorters tend to issue both positive recommendations and optimistic forecasts while strategic distorters speak in two tongues issuing overly positive recommendations but less optimistic forecasts we show that the incidence of strategic distortion is large and systematically related to proxies for incentive misalignment our two tongues metric reveals strategic distortion beyond those indicators and provides a new tool for detecting incentives to distort that are hard to identify otherwise

the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle time trend or speculative episodes campbell lettau malkiel and xu 2001 document a positive trend in idiosyncratic volatility during the 1962 1997 period we show that by 2003 volatility falls back to pre 1990s levels furthermore we show that the increase and subsequent reversal is concentrated among firms with low stock prices and high retail ownership this evidence suggests that the increase in idiosyncratic volatility through the 1990s was not a time trend but rather an episodic phenomenon at least partially associated with retail investors results from cross sectional regressions conditional trend estimation stock split events and attention grabbing events are consistent with a retail trading effect the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please email journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

a model of capital and crises we develop a model in which the capital of the intermediary sector plays a critical role in determining asset prices the model is cast within a dynamic general equilibrium economy and the role for intermediation is derived endogenously based on optimal contracting considerations low intermediary capital reduces the risk bearing capacity of the marginal investor we show how this force helps to explain patterns during financial crises the model replicates the observed rise during crises in sharpe ratios conditional volatility correlation in price movements of assets held by the intermediary sector and fall in riskless interest rates

green certificate markets the risk of over investment and the role of long term contracts abstract several papers have recently analyzed the theory and implementation of renewable energy support schemes the case for a renewable electricity standard res in tandem with a tradeable green certificate tgc market has been largely based on efficiency considerations case study evidence is inconclusive in part due to the short track record but is not generally favorable here we reconsider the efficiency case both static and dynamic in light of special characteristics of renewable energy projects we find that when exclusively high fixed cost technologies comprise the eligible technology pool the equilibrium form of contracting obviates the principal efficiency advantages claimed for certificate markets when low fixed cost technologies compete alongside high fixed cost technologies in the certificate market we show that it is likely that long term contracts will disappear and the technological choice will be inefficiently shifted away from the high fixed cost technology we consider evidence from three well developed certificate schemes in britain sweden and texas and find that it is broadly consistent with the theory here

information value and investor wealth the case of earnings announcements this paper empirically investigates the relation between investor wealth and the value of annual and quarterly earnings announcements as implied by 1 the behavior of mean stock trade transaction sizes at announcement dates and 2 transaction size stratified trading activity in postannouncement time periods announcement period mean transaction sizes are found to exceed expected mean transactions sizes estimated from trading activity occurring in nonannouncement periods this result is attributed to a greater relative trading response to earnings announcements by wealthier investors consistent with ohlson s 1975 proposition that information value increases with investor wealth in a security market setting further evidence of a positive relation between value and wealth is found when postearnings announcement stock transactions are stratified by share size into three strata where the first stratum small stratum is transactions of 100 and 200 shares the second stratum large stratum is transactions of 300 to 900 shares and the third stratum institutional

price and trading volume reaction surrounding earnings announcements a closer examination the process of information dissemination and interpretation in securities markets is very complex and mostly unobservable while changes in prices and the amount of trading that takes place at the market level provide evidence of information processing verrecchia 1981 demonstrated that these are not sufficient to describe completely the dissemination of information and its interpretation by investors a descriptive study of price changes and trading volume however may still provide some insights into how investors react to information this paper is an empirical investigation of price changes and trading volume during the days surrounding the announcement of quarterly and annual earnings in the wall street journal wsj in the original paper investigating trading volume and price changes surrounding earnings announcements beaver 1968 was primarily concerned with whether the annual earnings announcement had information content i e led to changes in investors assessments of the probability distribution of future returns if there were any significant price changes and or trading volume during the week of the announcement then the annual earnings announcement was assumed to have had

market madness the case of mad money we use the popular television show mad money hosted by jim cramer to test theories of attention and limits to arbitrage stock recommendations on mad money constitute attention shocks to a large audience of individual traders we find that stock recommendations lead to large overnight returns that subsequently reverse over the next few months the spike reversal pattern is strongest among small illiquid stocks that are hard to arbitrage using daily nielsen ratings as a direct measure of attention we find that the overnight return is strongest when high income viewership is high we also find weak price effects among sell recommendations taken together the evidence supports the retail attention hypothesis of barber and odean barber b t odean 2008 all that glitters the effect of attention and news on the buying behavior of individual and institutional investors rev financial stud 21 2 785 818 and illustrates the potential role of media in generating mispricing this paper was accepted by brad barber teck ho and terrance odean special issue editors

intermediary asset pricing abstract we model the dynamics of risk premia during crises in asset markets where the marginal investor is a financial intermediary intermediaries face an equity capital constraint risk premia r

do economic instruments matter wind turbine investments in the eu 15 abstract this paper analyses how governments in the eu 15 countries have succeeded in stimulating investments in wind turbines between 1985 and 2005 i use four different evaluation criteria tobin s q euler equation estimation investment accelerator model and the effective marginal tax rate to describe the observed investment patterns after a period of rapid growth in capital stock 1985 2000 a period of modest growth 2001 2005 can be observed even though the economic attractiveness of investing increases modestly this pattern cannot be explained by the evaluation criteria unless we accept economic attractiveness is a necessary condition and not a necessary and sufficient condition when analysing which policy has worked best the policies of germany denmark and spain stand out their early and consistent support has been based on feed in tariffs combined with subsidies

earnings expectations investor trade size and anomalous returns around earnings announcements abstract we provide evidence that identifiable subsets of investors use significantly different information sets investors initiating large trades respond to analysts earnings forecast errors while investors initiating small trades respond to a less sophisticated signal that underestimates the implications of current earnings innovations for future earnings levels this suggests small investors exhibit the behavior that bernard and thomas journal of accounting and economics 13 305 340 theorize causes post earnings announcement drift we also use analysts forecasts to significantly improve the predictability of returns around earnings announcements previously documented by bernard and thomas finally results attempting to link return predictability to the prevalence of small investor trading are mixed

the dartboard column second hand information and price pressure this study analyzes the effect of second hand information on the behavior of security prices and volume using analysts recommendations published in the monthly dartboard column of the wall street journal for the two days following the publication of the recommendations average positive abnormal returns of 4 percent nearly twice the level of abnormal returns documented in previous research on analyst recommendations and average volume double normal volume levels on the two days following publication of the recommendations are documented the positive abnormal return on announcement is partially reversed within 25 trading days the authors conclude that the positive abnormal return on announcement of the recommendations is a result of naive buying pressure as well as the information content of the analysts recommendations

stealth trading which traders trades move stock prices usingaudit trail data for a sample of nyse firms we show that medium size trades are associated with a disproportionately large cumulative stock price change relative to their proportion of all trades and volume this result is consistent with the predictions of barclay and warner s 1993 stealth tradinghypothesis we find that the source of this disproportionately large cumulative price impact of medium size trades is trades initiated by institutions this result is robust to various sensitivity checks our findings appear to confirm street lore that institutions are informed traders 2001 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

order imbalance liquidity and market returns traditionally volume has provided the link between trading activity and returns we focus on a hitherto unexplored but intuitive measure of trading activity the aggregate daily order imbalance on the new york stock exchange signed order imbalances increase decrease following market declines rises which reveals that investors are contrarians on aggregate order imbalances in either direction either excess buy or sell orders reduce liquidity market wide returns are strongly affected by contemporaneous and lagged order imbalances market wide returns reverse themselves after high negative imbalance large negative return days the magnitude of this reversal is partially predictable from the level of the imbalance and return even after controlling for aggregate market volume and liquidity market returns are affected by order imbalance

return predictability following large price changes and information releases abstract we examine return behavior following large price change events unconditional post event abnormal returns are found to be unimportant as we condition on other criteria related to the quality of information like volume and public announcements the abnormal returns become large the type of news provides further refinement if the news relates to earnings or analyst recommendations then the 20 day abnormal returns become much larger ranging from 3 to 4 for positive events and about 2 25 for negative events finally an out of sample trading strategy confirms investor under reaction and generates significant abnormal annualized returns of the order of 12 18

earnings acceleration and stock returns abstract we document that earnings acceleration defined as the quarter over quarter change in earnings growth has significant explanatory power for future excess returns these excess returns are robust to a wide range of previously documented anomalies and a battery of risk controls the future return predictability appears to be consistent with investors assuming a seasonal random walk model for quarterly earnings and missing predictable implications of earnings acceleration for future earnings growth finally the excess returns from the basic earnings acceleration strategy can be enhanced further by focusing on profit firms low earnings volatility firms and on specific patterns of earnings acceleration

wind power generation an impact analysis of incentive strategies for cleaner energy provision in brazil brazil has adopted various strategies to encourage alternative renewable energy sources in pursuit of cleaner and sustainable energy production to this end strategies should support the reduction of the financial risk for potential investors in the renewable energy market therefore this study aims to analyze the impact of incentive strategies on the financial risk of wind power generation projects in brazil in different marketing environments from a quantitative approach using monte carlo simulation in three scenarios we evaluate the impact of funding from the national development bank and participation in the clean development mechanism in the financial returns of the investor in a regulated contracting environment and free contracting environment measured by the net present value we conduct a statistical analysis to find out if there were statistically significant differences in investor risk in each scenario the main results of the study are as follows the wind speed the selling price of energy and disbursement for the investment have the most significant impact on the financial return the project viability probability is greater than 85 in all scenarios regardless of the marketing environment the regulated market is less risky for the producer than the free market since there is a statistically significant difference in net present value variances for all scenarios in the regulated contracting environment funding is critical to reducing risk and carbon credit trading is not a suitable policy for providing financial security to renewable energy producers thus we conclude that in brazil the contracting of projects from auctions in the regulated contracting environment with the support of the national development bank has been important for neutralizing the producer s financial risks

survey evidence on diffusion of interest and information among investors abstract questionnaire surveys of institutional and individual investors were undertaken to learn about patterns of communications it was found that direct interpersonal communications are very important in investor decisions questions elicited what fraction of investors were unsystematic and allowed themselves to be influenced by word of mouth communications or other salient stimuli randomly sampled investors were studied as well as investors in stocks whose price had recently increased dramatically contagion or epidemic models of financial markets are proposed in which interest in individual stocks is spread by word of mouth the survey evidence is interpreted as supporting such models

long term effects of feed in tariffs and carbon taxes on distribution systems in deregulated electricity sector climates such as in ontario the production of clean or renewable energy by small power producers through distributed generation dg is encouraged this paper examines the policies that can be used to encourage dg investment and incorporates them into a mathematical model this model is then used to create scenarios for examining the economic and environmental supply side effects of policies to a distribution system over a ten year period the policies analyzed include a combination of feed in tariffs co2 tax and cap and trade schemes the results are discussed in the context of the ontario market and its standard offer program implemented on a 32 bus radial distribution system

presidential address asset price dynamics with slow moving capital i describe asset price dynamics caused by the slow movement of investment capital to trading opportunities the pattern of price responses to supply or demand shocks typically involves a sharp reaction to the shock and a subsequent and more extended reversal the amplitude of the immediate price impact and the pattern of the subsequent recovery can reflect institutional impediments to immediate trade such as search costs for trading counterparties or time to raise capital by intermediaries i discuss special impediments to capital formation during the recent financial crisis that caused asset price distortions which subsided afterward after presenting examples of price reactions to supply shocks in normal market settings i offer a simple illustrative model of price dynamics associated with slow moving capital due to the presence of inattentive investors i address the implications for asset price dynamics of the apparent slow movement of investment capital to trading opportunities the arrival of new capital to an investment opportunity can be delayed by fractions of a second in some markets for example an electronic limit order book market for equities or by months in other markets such as that for catastrophe risk insurance accordingly prices respond to supply or demand shocks with a sharp reaction because of the relatively small subset of capital and thus risk bearing capacity that is immediately available to absorb a shock on short notice such a price impact is substantially reversed over time as additional capital becomes available the amplitude of the immediate price impact and the pattern of the subsequent recovery can reflect many sorts of attention costs to trade as well as institutional impediments to capital movement such as search costs for trading

wealth information acquisition and portfolio choice i solve with an approximation a grossman stiglitz economy under general preferences thus allowing for wealth effects because information generates increasing returns decreasing absolute risk aversion in conjunction with the availability of costly information is sufficient to explain why wealthier households invest a larger fraction of their wealth in risky assets one no longer needs to resort to decreasing relative risk aversion an empirically questionable assumption furthermore i show how to distinguish empirically between these two explanations finally i find that the availability of costly information exacerbates wealth inequalities copyright 2004 oxford university press

the politics of renewable energy policies the case of feed in tariffs in ontario canada designing and implementing a renewable energy policy involves political decisions and actors yet most research on renewable energy policies comparatively evaluates instruments from an economic or technical perspective this paper presents a case study of ontario s feed in tariff policies between 1997 and 2012 to analyze how the political process affects renewable energy policy design and implementation ontario s policy although initially successful has met with increasing resistance over time the case reveals key political tensions that arise during implementation first high level support for a policy does not necessarily translate into widespread public support particularly for local deployment second the government often struggles under asymmetric information during price setting which may weaken the policy s legitimacy with the public due to higher costs third there is an unacknowledged tension that governments must navigate between policy stability to spur investment and adaptive policymaking to improve policy design fourth when multiple jurisdictions pursue the same policies simultaneously international political conflict over jobs and innovation may occur these implementation tensions result from political choices during policy design and present underappreciated challenges to transforming the electricity system governments need to critically recognize the political dimension of renewable energy policies to secure sustained political support

what drives the sensitivity of limit order books to company announcement arrivals abstract we provide evidence that recent losses amplify order book illiquidity shocks caused by non scheduled news moreover the faster markets reaction to scheduled and non scheduled news arrivals is in terms of order book illiquidity the more illiquid the order book becomes that is a fast reaction is a strong reaction additionally order book asymmetry observed before announcement arrivals is positively associated with the magnitude of illiquidity shocks

a novel policy for lmp calculation in distribution networks based on loss and emission reduction allocation using nucleolus theory this paper proposes a new policy to calculate the locational marginal price lmp in the distribution networks containing distributed generation dg the proposed policy is based on remunerating the dg units to reduce the loss and emission of the network lmp at each dg bus is calculated according to the contribution of the dg to the reduced amount of loss and emission an iterative algorithm which is based on the nucleolus theory is proposed to allocate the loss and emission reduction the proposed algorithm will provide a robust state estimation tool for distribution companies discos in the next step of operation the state estimation tool provides the decision maker with the ability to exert its control over private dg units when the loss and emission are minimized also the proposed pricing policy requires decision maker to simply apply its best response strategy to the lmp based on the priority of loss emission and disco s extra benefit the proposed methodology is applied to two realistic distribution networks and efficiency and accuracy of the method are verified