political risk institutions and foreign direct investment how do they relate in various european countries this paper examines theoretically and empirically the extent to which the decision by foreign firms to invest in a group of countries is influenced by economic factors as opposed to political risk and institutional performance we consider the importance of these factors as drivers of foreign direct investment fdi for 32 european countries subsequently divided into three pooled clusters by means of panel regression techniques in two specifications over the 1995 2008 period our results suggest that risk and institutional factors considered in both static and dynamic perspectives significantly influence the behaviour of investors policies and institutions that vary widely between countries modify their decision making so that the purely economic factors have different statistical significance and impacts on the intensity of fdi as was revealed by clustering countries into three groups according to levels of economic maturity additionally not all factors of risk have an identical impact on fdi decisions in particular groups of countries however we find that as measures of political risk monetary discipline low regulation effective government and good education prove to be highly significant for most country groupings all of these measures reduce political risk and positively affect the level of fdi this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the international division of assets as determined by comparative advantage abstract by developing a diagrammatical 2 x 2 model of international asset diversificationm the paper undertakes to build a bridge between trade theory and international finance the firms production possibilities for assets are derived from the manager s risk preferences asset demand is derived from risk preferences of households financial intermediaries modify asset supply by transforming one type of asset into another it is shown how the resulting composition of international gross assets and liabilities within a given net indebtedness is affected by changes in risk preferences and in the efficiency of intermediation

does institutional quality matter for trade institutional conditions in a sectoral trade framework summary this article examines the extent to which national institutional quality affects bilateral sectoral trade flows as well as whether the conditioning role of institutions for trade has been waxing or waning with time based on a new trade theory framework we derive a sectoral gravity equation including novel variables corresponding to the exporter s labor competitiveness levels along with importer s price indices and sectoral incomes and analyze industry specific bilateral trade flows of 186 countries for the period 1996 2012 we address potential endogeneity and econometric drawbacks by means of the poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation methods the results indicate that both the institutional conditions at destination and the institutional distance between exporting and importing countries are relevant factors for bilateral trade moreover the effect associated with institutional conditions at destination moderately increases over time this is a robust outcome across economic sectors with higher values for agriculture and raw materials than for manufacturing and services

institutional clusters and economic performance abstract we ran principal component regressions of growth and income on existing measures of institutions to assess which are the most important for economic performance we find that broadly defined institutions of checks and balances as well as a democratic and anti authoritarian culture are the most robust institutional determinants of long run growth in income

international capital movements under uncertainty in this paper we analyze the determinants of international movements of physical capital in a model with uncertainty and international trade in goods and securities in our model the world allocation of capital is governed to some extent by the asset preferences of risk averse consumer investors in a one good variant in the spirit of the macdougall model we find that relative factor abundance relative labor force size and relative production riskiness have separate but interrelated influences on the direction of equilibrium capital movements these same factors remain important in a two good version with heckscher ohlin production structure in this case the direction of physical capital flow is determinate unlike in a world of certainty and may hinge on the identity of the factor that is used intensively in the industry with random technology

trends in foreign direct investment flows a theoretical and empirical analysis this paper seeks to provide a rationale for changing trends in the flow and determinants of foreign direct investment fdi as a result of macro economic and firm strategy considerations we identify several factors that impact on such trends and develop propositions that could explain the phenomenon generically the study then provides preliminary empirical support for the propositions presented and outlines the path for further research needed to investigate more causal links the statistical analysis of investments by us multinational enterprises mnes reveals significant changes in the regional distribution of fdi and a change in some of its traditional determinants results show that us mnes are now making increasing investments into asia to exploit low wage levels and to secure entry into new markets

trends random walks and tests of the permanent income hypothesis abstract recent studies find that consumption is excessively sensitive to income these studies assume that income is stationary around a deterministic trend the data however do not reject the hypothesis that disposable personal income is a random walk with drift if income is indeed a random walk then the standard testing procedure is greatly biased toward finding excess sensitivity moreover if income follows either a more general non stationary process or a borderline stationary process this procedure is also seriously biased

distinguished lecture on economics in government the private uses of public interests incentives and institutions as a long time student of the public sector i welcomed the opportunity to come to washington as a member of the council of economic advisers and later to become the chairman of the council partly because it gave me an opportunity to study at first hand this immensely important part of our economy and society and to test my ideas against the reality of government in action to be sure i came also as an activist if not with a fully articulated agenda at least with a view about what it was that government should and should not be doing my reference point was the fundamental theorems of welfare economics which as some describe them proved that the market left to itself would produce efficient allocations many saw in these theorems the vindication of adam smith s faith in the invisible hand leading the self interested decisions of each person to maximize the well being of the nation as a whole today many of us look at the fundamental theorem not as a description of the world but as an explication of the conditions under which a market equilibrium will be pareto efficient these conditions are quite strong the importance of some of the more explicit assumptions like the lack of externalities and the completeness of markets has long been known in the last two decades we have explored much more seriously the consequences of the informational assumptions implicit in the belief that markets are efficient in particular it has been shown that in the presence of imperfect information or incomplete markets the economy will not be pareto efficient in other words there joseph stiglitz is senior vice president and chief economist world bank washington d c stiglitz was a member of the council of economic advisers from 1993 95 and chairman

aggregate vs disaggregate data analysis a paradox in the estimation of a money demand function of japan under the low interest rate policy we use japanese aggregate and disaggregate money demand data to show that conflicting inferences can arise the aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function the disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function neither was there any indication of the presence of a liquidity trap possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and disaggregate analysis are attributed to the neglected heterogeneity among micro units we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a cointegrating relation among aggregate variables when heterogeneous cointegration relations among micro units exist we also conduct simulation analysis to show that when such conditions are violated it is possible to observe stable micro relations but unit root phenomena among macro variables moreover the prediction of aggregate outcomes using aggregate data is less accurate than the prediction based on micro equations and policy evaluation based on aggregate data ignoring heterogeneity in micro units can be grossly misleading copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

growth effect of foreign direct investment in developing economies the role of institutional quality this paper investigates the effect of foreign direct investment fdi on economic growth conditional on the institutional quality of host countries we first develop several theoretical arguments to show that institutional heterogeneity may be an explanation for the mixed results of previous empirical studies second using a panel smooth regression model on a large sample of developing countries we show that fdi has a positive effect on growth only beyond a certain threshold of institutional quality to benefit from fdi led growth institutional reforms should thus precede fdi attraction policies additionally some reforms seem to promote faster marginal effects of fdi while institutional complementarities may lead to an incremental effect on growth

reversal of fortunes democratic institutions and foreign direct investment inflows to developing countries does increased democracy promote or jeopardize foreign direct investment fdi inflows to less developed countries we argue that democratic institutions have conflicting effects on fdi inflows on the one hand democratic institutions hinder fdi inflows by limiting the oligopolistic or monopolistic behaviors of multinational enterprises facilitating indigenous businesses pursuit of protection from foreign capital and constraining host governments ability to offer generous financial and fiscal incentives to foreign investors on the other hand democratic institutions promote fdi inflows because they tend to ensure more credible property rights protection reducing risks and transaction costs for foreign investors hence the net effect of democracy on fdi inflows is contingent on the relative strength of these two competing forces our argument reconciles conflicting theoretical expectations in the existing literature empirical analyses of fifty three developing countries from 1982 to 1995 substantiate our claims we find that both property rights protection and democracy related property rights protection encourage fdi inflows after controlling for their positive effect through property rights protection democratic institutions reduce fdi inflows these results are robust against alternative model specifications statistical estimators and variable measurements

testing for aggregation bias in linear models this paper discusses alternative methods of testing for aggregation bias and proposes direct tests of the discrepancy of the macroparameters from the average of the corresponding microparameters and derives tests of aggregation bias in the general case where the parameters of interest may possibly be nonlinear functions of the microparameters the paper also develops a durbin hausman type misspecification test of the disaggregate model these tests are then applied to disaggregate and aggregate specifications of employment functions for the u k economy disaggregated by forty industries copyright 1990 by royal economic society

mexican agricultural trade under the gatt expected effects from partially lifting tariff barriers on the mexican agricultural sector are investigated using a restricted profit function rpf approach short run and intermediate run effects of the implementation of gatt minimum tariff provisions on mexican agricultural trade are examined specification tests reveal the appropriateness of the rpf approach that exports should not be aggregated with non traded production into a single output and that the farm sector behaves as an almost price taking profit maximizing firm policy simulations suggest important short run changes in agricultural trade and chemical use and intermediate run changes in agricultural trade labour wage chemical use capital investments and net farm income

new ventures or acquisitions the choice of swedish multinational enterprises this study examines the factors influencing the multinational enterprises choice between the takeover of already existing firms and investments in new ventures as a means of entering a foreign market the results suggest that the degree of industrial diversification of the parent company and the host country s per capita income seems to have a positive influience on the propensity for takeovers this propensity appears to be negatively related to the rate of growth of industrial production in the industry entered further we found that the more recent the entry into a foreign market the greater the probability for choosing acquisition

survey article publication bias in the literature on foreign direct investment spillovers abstract in this article we conduct a large quantitative survey of the literature on horizontal and vertical spillovers from foreign direct investment fdi we create a unique database of spillover estimates for each country examined in the literature next we estimate the average effect corrected for publication selection bias the preferential selection of positive and significant estimates for publication our results suggest that an average reported estimate of backward spillovers is statistically significant publication selection is evident only among studies published in peer reviewed journals and only among the estimates that authors consider most important authors with small data sets engage in more publication selection the intensity of selection in the literature decreases over time which supports the economics research cycle hypothesis

determinants of horizontal spillovers from fdi evidence from a large meta analysis summary the voluminous empirical research on horizontal productivity spillovers from foreign investors to domestic firms has yielded mixed results in this paper we collect 1 205 estimates of spillovers and examine which factors influence spillover magnitude our results suggest that horizontal spillovers are on average zero but that their sign and magnitude depend systematically on the characteristics of the domestic economy and foreign investors foreign investors who form joint ventures with domestic firms and who come from countries with a modest technology edge create the largest benefits for the domestic economy

choice between disaggregate and aggregate specifications estimated by instrumental variables methods a choice criterion is proposed for discriminating between disaggregate and aggregate models estimated by the instrumental variables method the criterion based on prediction errors represents a generalization of criteria developed in the context of classical regression models the article also derives general tests for aggregation bias in the instrumental variables context the criterion and the tests are applied in an analysis of u k employment demand it is shown that a model disaggregated by 40 industries predicts aggregate employment better than an aggregate model and that significant biases exist in estimates of the long run wage and output elasticities obtained from the aggregate model

econometric analysis of aggregation in the context of linear prediction models this paper deals with the problem of aggregation where the focus of the analysis is whether to predict aggregate variables using macro or micro equations the grunfeldgriliches prediction criterion for choosing between aggregate and disaggregate equations is generalized to allow for contemporaneous covariances between the disturbances of micro equations and the possibility of different parametric restrictions on the equations of the disaggregate model a new test is proposed of the hypothesis of perfect aggregation which tests the validity of aggregation either through coefficient equality or through the stability over time of the composition of the regressors across the micro units the tools developed in the paper are then applied to employment demand functions for the uk economy disaggregated by 40 industries firstly a set of unrestricted log linear dynamic specifications are estimated for the disaggregate equations and then linear parameter restrictions are imposed as appropriate corresponding unrestricted and restricted aggregate equations are estimated two different levels of aggregation are considered aggregation over the 23 manufacturing industries and aggregation over all 40 industries of the economy in both cases the hypothesis of perfect aggregation is firmly rejected for the manufacturing industries the prediction criterion marginally favors the aggregate equation but over all industries the disaggregated equations are strongly preferred

determinants of foreign direct investment in wind energy in developing countries abstract the renewable energy industry is one of the fastest growing industries attracting a great amount of foreign direct investment being one of the top 5 industries in 2015 in terms of the amount of investment allocated however the allocation of foreign direct investment in the sector greatly varies between developing countries preceding studies have tried to explain the location determinants of foreign direct investment mainly by looking at the effects of institutional and macroeconomic factors the renewable energy sector has been supported by various economic regulatory and political support policies considering the importance of these support policies the paper analyses their effects on foreign direct investment as location determinants in comparison with that of the widely accepted determinants institutional and macroeconomic determinants focusing on wind energy in developing countries the results show that renewable energy support policies have equivalent or greater effect compared to the widely accepted determinants such as corruption level price stability access to finance and gdp growth the paper demonstrates the importance of analysing determinants of foreign direct investment focusing on a specific sector rather than looking at overall foreign direct investment the paper also provides important policy implications including the need to improve the regulatory aspect of renewable energy sector such as access to grid infrastructure in order to attract foreign direct investment into the sector

how corruption influences foreign direct investment a panel data study abstract this article analyzes the sign and development of the effect of corruption on foreign direct investment fdi economic theory distinguishes grabbing hand corruption from helping hand corruption the former suggests a negative impact of corruption on fdi the latter one a positive effect empirically we apply a data set of 21 home and 59 developed and less developed host countries covering between 1983 and 1999 to investigate the corruption impact we employ a panel data model that particularly refers to the knowledge capital model of multinational activity we find a negative relationship between corruption and fdi this in turn suggests that the helping hand effects of corruption are outweighed by the grabbing hand effects further we observe that corruption is an important impediment of fdi in developed economies but not in less developed ones finally we demonstrate that the importance of corruption has decreased over the years

fdi productivity and financial development this paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment fdi on growth factor accumulation physical and human capital does not seem to be the main channel through which countries benefit f rom fdi instead we f ind that countries with well developed financial markets gain significantly

governance infrastructure and us foreign direct investment this paper examines the statistical importance of governance infrastructure as a determinant of us foreign direct investment fdi in broad terms governance infrastructure represents attributes of legislation regulation and legal systems that condition freedom of transacting security of property rights and transparency of government and legal processes our econometric analysis uses a two stage estimation procedure in the first stage the probability that a country is an fdi recipient is estimated the results indicate that countries that fail to achieve a minimum threshold of effective governance are unlikely to receive any us fdi countries that receive no us fdi are typically countries that do not promote free and transparent markets that have ineffective governments and that often have legal systems that are not rooted in english common law in the second stage the analysis is restricted to those countries that did receive fdi flows the estimated equations focus on the determinants of the amount of fdi received given that a country is a recipient of us fdi governance infrastructure including the nature of the legal system is an important determinant of the amount received

temporal and spatial aggregation alternative marketing margin models the effects of temporal and spatial data aggregation on the performance of alternative marketing margin models is assessed using monthly quarterly and semiannual fluid milk prices from three u s cities nonnested tests for multivariate and single equation models with serial correlation are used to choose among alternative models at each aggregation level while model choice is affected by temporal and spatial aggregation model choice becomes more difficult as data are temporally or spatially aggregated

money demand in euroland abstract this paper explores the determinants of alternative monetary aggregates in euroland a sample consisting of quarterly data covering the 1980 1 1998 4 period is considered we are interested whether a conventionally defined money demand equation is stable in some aggregates as opposed to others both long run and short run relationships are considered in this paper overall the results indicate that broad narrow money demand in euroland is a stable unstable function of euroland wide income and interest rates

international investment location decisions abstract in international location tournaments governments compete for foreign investment with tax and other short run incentives such tournaments can be won if agglomeration economies are sufficiently powerful to overcome investors desire to spread investments as a hedge against risk we focus on manufacturing investments by u s multinationals in the 1980s our econometric results suggest that agglomeration economies are indeed the dominant influence on investor calculations paradoxically short run incentives have limited apparent impact on location choice we conclude that high cost tournament play is unnecessary for countries with good infrastructure development specialized input suppliers and an expanding domestic market

why doesn t capital flow from rich to poor countries an empirical investigation we examine the empirical role of difierent explanations for the lack of ows of capital from rich to poor countries the lucas paradox the theoretical explanations include difierences in fundamentals across countries and capital market imperfections we show that during 1970i2000 low institutional quality is the leading explanation for example improving peru s institutional quality to australia s level implies a quadrupling of foreign investment recent studies emphasize the role of institutions for achieving higher levels of income but remain silent on the speciflc mechanisms our results indicate that foreign investment might be a channel through which institutions afiect long run development

an investigation of the determinants of manufacturing employment in the united kingdom in this paper we present and estimate an adjustment cost model of industry employment which takes explicit account of both expectations and aggregation over different labour types the resulting model is subject to a large number of tests and is a highly robust representation of the data finally forecasts are produced for manufacturing employment up to 1990