fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the eu countries from central and eastern europe this article analyses the time series properties of the fiscal balance in the 10 eu countries from central and eastern europe the persistence of the fiscal balance is analysed by means of unit root tests that account for possible nonlinearities and structural changes the linear and nonlinear unit root tests find only mild evidence in favour of the stationarity hypothesis with asymmetric effects present in a few cases after controlling for structural changes in the data generation processes dgps the results point to stationarity of the series thus in spite of relatively steady headline figures the budget balance processes in the eu countries from central and eastern europe exhibit substantial instability

on technological convergence amongcountries a comment on patel and pavitt in a recent article patel and pavitt 1994 presented statistical evidence related to the hypothesis of striking differences even divergences in the rate and direction of technological accumulation in the industrial countries p 770 although the theoretical framework patel and pavitt presented to explain their statistical findings is not without appeal one might argue that it tends to put a large degree of emphasis upon those factors in technological development that have been identified as causing cumulativeness and persistent differences between countries or at a lower level of aggregation firms in previous work with luc soete soete and verspagen 1993 1994 i stressed that the empirical facts tend to support a hypothesis which contrary to patel and pavitt takes into account a mix of factors related to the international diffusion of knowledge and convergence of national levels of technology investment and specialization structure on the one hand and cumulativeness of knowledge development and specialization patterns on the other hand see for example dosi 1988 for an overview of these various o factors during recent decades soete and verspagen 1993 1994 those factors related to convergence seem to have been slightly dominant in the jj oecdarea i this conclusion is in obvious contrast with the one drawn in the work by patel and pavitt 1994 in this note i will argue that this contrast is due to an interpretation of the empirical evidence by patel and pavitt which is at 5 least partly open to criticism my comments will be focused on two of their t tables related to technological indicators at the country level firstly patel and pavitt on the basis of their table 1 which gives the 1 standard deviation sd of industry financed r d to gdp ratios among 17 advanced oecd countries argued that there are no statistical signs of i convergence in the industry funded shares over time since the standard j deviation of the distribution has not decreased over time on the contrary it

testing intertemporal budget constraints theory and applications to u s federal budget and current account deficits this paper extends previous tests of intertemporal budget balance and present value relationships by expanding the set of allowable deficit processes and by deriving a testable condition that is sufficient to ensure intertemporal budget balance as long as the expected discount rate is strictly positive using these tests the authors find that both the postwar federal budget deficit process and the process governing accumulation of u s assets by foreigners are consistent with intertemporal budget balance copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

stock market linkages evidence from latin america abstract this study investigates the dynamic interdependence of the major stock markets in latin america using data from 1995 to 2000 we examine the stock market indexes of argentina brazil chile colombia mexico and venezuela the index level series are non stationary and so we employ cointegration analysis and error correction vector autoregressions var techniques to model the interdependencies we find that there is one cointegrating vector which appears to explain the dependencies in prices the results are robust to sensitivity tests based on translating indexes to us dollars i e a common currency for all the markets and to partitioning the sample into periods before and after the asian and russian financial crises of 1997 and 1998 respectively our results suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in different latin american markets is limited

common trends the government s budget constraint and revenue smoothing abstract the requirement that the government s budget be balanced in present value terms is shown to be equivalent to the condition that government expenditures inclusive of interest tax receipts and seignorage be cointegrated the condition is in fact stronger requiring that the deficit inclusive of interest be stationary stationarity of the net of interest deficit is neither necessary nor sufficient for intertemporal budget balance however it does have implications for barro s tax smoothing hypothesis data for the period 1890 1986 are consistent with intertemporal budget balance but not with tax smoothing

global growth and international cooperation a structuralist perspective this paper revisits the structuralist ideas on trade and growth and suggests based on the prebisch s principle of implicit reciprocity that policies for promoting structural change in the periphery may lead to higher global growth and a better income distribution across countries the paper discusses the inter relations and complementarities that exist between autonomous expenditure and industrial and technology policies in the long run with this objective we develop a structuralist growth model in which the technology gap and the growth rate of the domestic autonomous expenditure are endogenously determined in a two country centre and periphery international economy copyright the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

the sustainability of government deficits implications of the present value borrowing constraint this paper introduces a new methodology for evaluating the sustainability of fiscal policy the new methodology is distinguished from most existing tests in two important respects first it allows for stochastic real interest rates and second it is both necessary and sufficient results from the application of the new test suggest that recent fiscal policy in the united states has not been sustainable the paper contrasts its findings with those of james d hamilton and marjorie a flavin 1986 copyright 1989 by ohio state university press

structural change and the bop constraint why did latin america fail to converge this paper discusses why latin america failed to achieve sustainable convergence with the developed world since 1960 and analyses different phases of convergence and divergence using a structuralist keynesian approach first it is argued that there are critical differences between latin america the developed economies and the asian economies as regards the evolution of the income elasticity of the demand for imports the rate of growth of exports and the balance of payments constrained rate of growth the income elasticity of the demand for imports in latin america showed an upward trend particularly after the mid 1970s which was not matched by a similar increase in exports a pattern in sharp contrast with that of the east asian countries the evolution of and exports are used to set forth a typology of latin american economic growth since 1960 in addition the paper relates elasticities and the less favourable latin american performance to the intensity and direction of structural change using a broad sample of developed and developing economies it is shown that the developing countries that succeed in reducing the income gap are those that transformed their economic structures in favour of sectors with higher schumpeterian and keynesian efficiency copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

trends and volatilities in foreign patents registered in the usa this study analyses the patent trends and volatilities for the top 12 foreign patenting countries in the us market from 1975 to 1997 japan is ranked first in terms of foreign patents registered in the usa followed by germany patent registrations from each of these countries have increased steadily over time but at different rates using monthly time series data for 1975 1997 the time varying volatility of australian japanese and german patents registered in the usa is examined in detail the asymmetric ar 1 gjr 1 1 model is found to be suitable for australia and japan while the best fitting model for germany is the symmetric ar 1 garch 1 1 model

patterns of technological accumulation the comparative advantage and relative impact of asian emerging economies in low carbon energy technological systems abstract this paper highlights the specificities of the patterns of low carbon energy technological innovations in selected asian emerging economies china and the members of asean 4 thailand malaysia indonesia and the philippines are included in this analysis for their identical structure of developing economy we outline a synthetic framework to cluster together the technologies with similar characteristics and analyse the changes of these characteristics over time this is in order to elucidate the scope of sectoral composition and specialisation of the selected economies and thereby understand the relative impact of science based low carbon energy technologies on the niches of technological excellence the findings show that china was keen to pursue its diversification strategy and develop its capability in low carbon energy technologies since the turn of the millennium however china has been gradually losing its momentum in more traditional areas like biomass hydroelectric power natural gas and fossil fuels the asean 4 economies on the other hand are showing interest in building a number of niches of technological excellence this highlights a contrasting relative technological advantage between larger and smaller economies our findings also indicate that many of the low carbon technologies in selected economies have yet to attain strong scientific grounding for development the findings of this paper are expected to provide some insights into low carbon energy technological development of emerging economies and be useful for other developing economies to establish their strategic moves for energy technology development

openness to international markets and the diffusion of standards compliance in latin america a multi level analysis abstract this study contributes to the debate on the role of openness to international markets for the diffusion of compliance with international standards in developing countries relying upon aggregated data for 1995 2005 as well as upon firm level and secondary data from the chilean salmon farming industry the determinants of iso 9000 and iso 14001 diffusion at country industry and firm level in latin american are analysed our evidence suggests that openness to international markets acts at different levels at both the country and industry level it creates awareness and access to new knowledge therefore providing economic incentives or penalisations for evaluating certification this effect competes and complements the deliberated efforts and policies in explaining diffusion of certification at firm level however openness to international markets alone does not provide sufficient opportunities to acquire the knowledge required to comply with these standards in this case standards compliance depends on firm s capability to use relational and search assets as well as on national and industrial efforts and policies to spread standards usage

evolution of international stock and bond market integration influence of the european monetary union abstract this paper examines the dynamic relationship between daily stock and government bond returns of selected countries over the past decade to infer the state and progress of inter financial market integration we proceed to empirically investigate the influence of the european monetary union emu on time variations in inter stock bond market integration segmentation dynamics using a two step procedure first we document the downward trends in time varying conditional correlations between stock and bond market returns in european countries japan and the us second we investigate the causality and determinants of this interdependent relationship in particular whether the various macroeconomic convergence criteria associated with the emu have played a significant role we find that real economic integration and the reduction in currency risk have generally had the desired effect on financial integration but monetary policy integration may have created uncertain investor sentiments on the economic future of the emu thereby stimulating a flight to quality phenomenon

bubble finance and debt sustainability a test of the government s intertemporal budget constraint this paper tests whether the government s budget is intertemporally balanced in a number of ec countries by applying a method first developed to detect speculative bubbles in financial markets the test aims to establish whether the government can engage in buble finance and is based on a comparison between two sets of estimates the first is obtained directly by regressing the stock of outstanding debt on a distributed lag of the primary surplus the second is obtained indirectly from a pair of equations one relating the current debt stock to next period s primary surplus and debt stock the other specifying an ar process for the primary surplus in the presence of a bubble only the first set of estimates is inconsistent and hence the two sets differ it is found that the null of no bubble can be rejected in the cases of italy germany denmark and greece implying that the government is not intertemporally solvent in these countries the other ec member states appear to be on a sustainable path

international stock market linkages evidence from the pre and post october 1987 period abstract this paper uses recent developments in the theory of cointegration to provide new methods of testing the linkage and dynamic interactions among stock market movements our findings are in sharp contrast with previous research which discovered strong interdependence among national stock markets prior to october 1987 for the post october 1987 period however our results show that the degree of international co movements among stock price indices has increased substantially with the nikkei index the only exception furthermore the us stock market is found to have a considerable impact on the french german and uk markets in the post crash period we also find the response of the french german and uk markets to us stock market innovations to be consistent with the view of cross border informationally efficient stock markets finally we find the japanese equity market performance to have no links with both the us stock market and the stock markets in france germany and uk during the pre and post october crash period

political credit cycles the case of the euro zone we study the mechanisms through which the adoption of the euro delayed rather than advanced economic reforms in the euro zone periphery and led to the deterioration of important institutions in these countries we show that the abandonment of the reform process and the institutional deterioration in turn not only reduced their growth prospects but also fed back into financial conditions prolonging the credit boom and delaying the response to the bubble when the speculative nature of the cycle was already evident we analyze empirically the interrelation between the financial boom and the reform process in greece spain ireland and portugal and by way of contrast in germany a country that did experience a reform process after the creation of the euro

public sector debt dynamics the persistence and sources of shocks to debt in 10 eu countries this paper characterises the time series properties of debt gdp ratios in ten eu countries over the period 1982 2009 it establishes that shocks to debt ratios persist and measures the size and source of the permanent effects of shocks as they evolve over time the analysis shows that debt dynamics in the eu10 are complicated involving important inter country interactions and protracted adjustment periods of the order of ten years we find evidence of asymmetries in the effects of different forms of fiscal consolidation with unanticipated reductions in government spending having a more permanent effect than unanticipated increases in government revenue unanticipated business cycle fluctuations also have important long term effects on the ratio

the impact of terrorism on governance in african countries this study investigates how terrorism affects governance in 53 african countries for the period 1998 2012 four terrorism indicators are used namely domestic transnational unclear and total terrorism ten bundled and unbundled governance indicators are also employed namely political governance consisting of political stability and voice and accountability economic governance encompassing government effectiveness and regulation quality institutional governance entailing corruption control and the rule of law and general governance the governance indicators are bundled by means of principal component analysis the empirical evidence is based on generalized method of moments three key findings are established first all selected terrorism dynamics negatively affect political governance and its constituents second evidence of a negative relationship is sparingly apparent in economic governance and its components third no proof was confirmed in relation to the impact of terrorism and institutional governance with its elements fourth compared with domestic terrorism transnational terrorism more negatively and significantly affects political economic and general governances policy implications are discussed

monetary convergence of the eu accession countries to the eurozone a theoretical framework and policy implications abstract a flexible approach to direct inflation targeting offers the european union accession countries a viable monetary policy choice that is believed to facilitate both the economic transition and the monetary convergence to the eurozone following this assumption a model investigating the nexus between inflation and selected monetary variables in three eu accession countries the czech republic poland and hungary is advanced the empirical analysis is aimed at explaining the sensitivity of the cpi based inflation path in these countries to backward as well as forward looking expectations nominal exchange rate fluctuations the eurozone inflation impulses and output changes the analysis implies that the monetary convergence begins with flexible inflation targeting and concludes with a full fledged euroization

concentrated control institutions and banking sector an international study abstract using a broad sample of listed commercial banks in east asia and western europe this paper investigates the relations among concentrated control a set of bank operating characteristics and legal and regulatory regimes we find that banks with concentrated control exhibit poorer performance lower cost efficiency greater return volatility and higher insolvency risk relative to widely held ones we also document that legal institutions and private monitoring effectively reduce the detrimental effects of concentrated control and that official disciplinary power plays a weak governance role whereas government intervention exacerbates the adverse effects further evidence shows that the relations between control concentration and bank operating characteristics are curvilinear and vary according to the types of controlling owners overall our findings support the contention that country level institutions play important roles in constraining insider expropriation and that private monitoring mechanisms are more effective than are public rules and supervision in governing banks

on the limitations of government borrowing a framework for empiricaltesting this paper seeks to distinguish empirically between two views on the limitations of government borrowing according to one view nothing precludes the government from running a permanent budget deficit paying interest due on the growing debt load simply by issuing new debt an alternative perspective holds that creditors would be unwilling to purchase government debt unless the government made a credible commitment to balance its budget in present value terms we show that distinguishing between these possibilities is mathematically equivalent to testing whether a continuing currency inflation might be fueled by speculation alone or is instead driven solely by economic fundamentals empirical tests which have been developed for this economic question lead us to conclude that postwar u s deficits are largely consistent with the proposition that the government budget must be balanced in present value terms this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

are european sovereign bonds fairly priced the role of modelling uncertainty abstract this paper examines the extent to which large swings of sovereign yields in euro area countries during the debt crisis can be attributed to fundamentals focusing on the inherent uncertainty in bond yield models we show that the outcomes are strongly affected by modelling choices with regard to i the confidence bands for the model prediction ii the assumption whether the model coefficients are similar across countries or not iii the sample selection iv the inclusion of financial variables and v the choice of time varying coefficients these choices affect the explanatory power of macro fundamentals and the extent of mispricing

technical change growth and trade new departures in institutional economics this article analyses the main theoretical and policy issues emerging from the literature on the evolutionary institutional economics of technical change the four distinguishing characteristics of which are that technology is often proprietary in nature only a part of knowledge is codifiable in handbooks blueprints patents and so on there are fundamental variations in the above two points across different technological fields and the evolution of knowledge is highly path dependent

the mobile phone in the diffusion of knowledge for institutional quality in sub saharan africa this study assesses the mobile phone in the diffusion of knowledge for better governance in sub saharan africa from 2000 to 2012 for this purpose we employ generalised method of moments with forward orthogonal deviations the empirical evidence is based on three complementary knowledge diffusion variables innovation internet penetration and educational quality and 10 governance indicators that are bundled and unbundled the following are the main findings first there is an unconditional positive effect of mobile phone penetration on good governance second the net effects on political economic and institutional governances that are associated with the interaction of the mobile phone with knowledge diffusion variables are positive for the most part third countries with low levels of governance are catching up their counterparts with higher levels of governance the above findings are broadly consistent with theoretical underpinnings on the relevance of mobile phones in mitigating bad governance in africa the evidence of some insignificant net effects and decreasing marginal impacts may be an indication that the mobile phone could also be employed to decrease government quality overall this study has established net positive effects for the most part five rationales could elicit the positive net effects on good governance from the interaction between mobile phones and knowledge diffusion among others the knowledge variables enhance reach access adoption cost effectiveness and interaction in a nut shell the positive net effects are apparent because the knowledge diffusion variables complement mobile phones in reducing information asymmetry and monopoly that create conducive conditions for bad governance the contribution of the findings to existing theories and justifications of the underlying positive net effects are discussed

financial development and economic growth convergence or divergence abstract this study tests for convergence in financial development and economic growth by incorporating the interaction between the real and financial sectors into an otherwise traditional test for convergence the results show strong evidence for conditional convergence middle and high income countries conditionally converge to parallel growth paths not only in per capita gdp but also in financial development the mutually reinforcing relationship between financial development and economic growth is stronger in the early stage of economic development and this relationship diminishes as sustained economic growth gets under way as such low income countries with a relatively well developed financial sector are more likely to catch up to their middle and high income counterparts and those with a relatively under developed financial sector are more likely to be trapped in poverty this finding explains the observed great divergence between poor and rich countries another finding is that while human capital is more important to growth in the early stage of economic development economic freedom becomes more important in the later stage

sovereign spreads in the eurozone which prospects for a eurobond in this paper we provide new evidence on the determinants of sovereign yield spreads and market sentiment effects in the eurozone in order to evaluate the rationale for a common eurobond jointly guaranteed by eurozone member states we find that default risk is the main driver of yield spreads suggesting small gains from greater liquidity fiscal fundamentals matter in the pricing of default risk but only as they interact with other countries yield spreads that is with the global risk that the market perceives more importantly the impact of this global risk variable is not constant over time a clear sign of contagion driven by shifts in market sentiment this evidence points to a discontinuity in the disciplinary role of financial markets if markets can stay irrational longer than a country can stay solvent then the role of yield spreads on national bonds as a fiscal discipline device is considerably weakened and issuing eurobonds can be economically justified carlo favero and alessandro missale

excessive deficits sense and nonsense in the treaty of maastricht maastricht s fiscal rules willem buiter giancarlo corsetti and nouriel roubini the maastricht treaty on economic and monetary union in the ec has specified limits on both government debt and fiscal deficits satisfying these criteria is necessary for getting into emu once inside violating these limits will also incur penalties the fiscal requirements especially the debt criterion are much tougher than is required to ensure public sector solvency trying to attain these targets will force the ec initially into substantial deflation and recession failure to correct for real growth inflation and the business cycle makes the nominal deficit a poor basis for any policy or target ambiguity about how fiscal targets will in fact be interpreted might provide a way out but cannot today be relied upon to do so supranational fiscal rules are sometimes claimed to be justified by externalities in national fiscal policies we find this justification wanting both in theory and empirically a better case might be built on the imposition of external commitments to offset domestic political distortions that systematically induce excessive deficits even so we conclude that the fiscal convergence criteria on balance are harmful and should be disregarded or applied very loosely to avoid the risk of serious fiscal overkill

the structure of interdependence in international stock markets abstract this study investigates the dynamic structure of nine major stock markets using an error correction model and directed acyclic graphs dag the dag representation provides a structure of causality among these markets in contemporaneous time building on this contemporaneous structure and the estimated error correction model innovation accounting techniques are applied the results show that the japanese market is among the most highly exogenous and the canadian and french markets among the least exogenous in our nine market study the us market is highly influenced by its own historical innovations but it is also influenced by market innovations from the uk switzerland hong kong france and germany the us market is the only market that has a consistently strong impact on price movements in other major stock markets in the longer run

an analysis of the stability and growth pact we use a stylised model to analyse the stability and growth pact for countries that have formed the european monetary union emu in our model shortsighted governments fail to internalise the consequences of their debt policies for the common inflation rate fully therefore while governments have no incentive to sign a stability pact in the absence of a monetary union they do so with monetary union to restrain this externality with uncertainty a monetary union combined with an appropriately designed pact will be strictly preferred to autonomy with differences in initial conditions conflicts of interest arise we study the nash bargaining solution

technological capabilities invisible infrastructure and the un social construction of predictability the overlooked fixed costs of useful research the paper explores the idea that unpredictability is a much more pervasive and important feature of technical change than is traditionally supposed it explains how economically important interactions between scientific explanations and technology require the construction of very specific artificially predictable conditions where explanations implications match technologies behaviour the iterative construction of these localised predictable conditions from unpredictable starting materials relies on generates and is made easier by reusable social and physical infrastructure the paper develops a non tautological model of technological capabilities and provides a novel explanation for a range of empirical findings theoretical and policy implications are reported

convergence in energy consumption per capita among asean countries abstract we test for convergence in energy consumption per capita among asean countries over the period 1971 to 2011 using the panel kpss stationarity test and panel lagrange multiplier lm unit root test the results for the panel stationarity and unit root tests with structural breaks find support for energy convergence in asean

are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint abstract time series related to fiscal and external deficits are commonly subjected to stationarity and cointegration tests to assess if the deficits are sustainable such tests are incapable of rejecting sustainability the intertemporal budget constraint proves to be satisfied if either the debt series or the revenue and with interest spending series are integrated of arbitrarily high order i e stationary after differencing arbitrarily often revenues and spending do not have to be cointegrated rejections of low order difference stationarity and of cointegration are thus consistent with the intertemporal budget constraint error correction type policy reaction functions are suggested as more promising for understanding deficit problems

government debt dynamics and the global financial crisis has anything changed in the ea12 this paper seeks to shed light on possible changes in the government debt dynamics for the first 12 euro area countries structural breaks are present around the global financial crisis for most countries but not for germany and france the two core countries in the euro area the properties of the government debt dynamics differ markedly across the countries receiving bailouts

new empirical evidence on the bid ask spread in this article we model the determinants of spread for 734 firms listed on the nyse over the period 1 january 1998 to 31 december 2008 we propose a panel data model of the determinants of spread there are four main messages emerging from our work we find a statistically significant effect of volume on spread inconsistent with the work of johnson 2008 on price we find mixed results consistent with the literature on the effect of price volatility on spread our results are completely the opposite of the cross sectional literature but sides with the relatively recent work of chordia et al 2001 we allow for persistence of spread as a determinant of spread and find significant evidence of spread persistence across all 16 sectors finally we examine size effects and find statistically strong evidence of size effects based on the relationship between price and spread persistence and spread and volatility and spread

convergence to market efficiency of top gainers abstract this study investigates the convergence process toward efficiency of daily top gainers the convergence process toward efficiency is much clearer as a result of using a garch 1 1 model compared to the ols model and exhibits a monotonic decline as the time interval increases the relationship between volatility and order imbalances is however not strong enough suggesting that market makers do have the capability to reduce price volatility this study develops an imbalance based trading strategy which earns a positive profit but fails to outperform the buy and hold strategy i e open to close returns a nested causality approach which examines the dynamic return order imbalance relationship during the price formation process confirms the results

seasonality and equilibrium business cycle theories abstract we consider a dynamic stochastic equilibrium business cycle model which is augmented to reflect seasonal shifts in preferences technology and government purchases our estimated parameterization implies implausibly large seasonal variation in the state of technology rising at an annual rate of 24 in the fourth quarter and falling at an annual rate of 28 in the first quarter furthermore our findings indicate that variation in the state of technology of this magnitude is required if the model is to explain the main features of the seasonal cycle

the seasonal cycle and the business cycle almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally adjusted or annual data this paper takes a different approach by treating seasonal fluctuations as worthy of study in their own right our results show that seasonal fluctuations are an important source of variation in all macroeconomic quantity variables but are small or entirely absent in both real and nominal price variables the timing of the seasonal fluctuations consists of increases in the second and fourth quarters a large decrease in the first quarter and a mild decrease in the third quarter the paper demonstrates that with respect to each of several major stylized facts about business cycles the seasonal cycle displays the same characteristics as the business cycle in some cases even more dramatically than the business cycle that is we find that at seasonal frequencies as well as at business cycle frequencies output movements across broadly defined sectors move together the timing of production and the

the fiscal cost implications of an accommodating approach to banking crises abstract in recent decades a majority of countries have experienced a systemic banking crisis requiring a major and expensive overhaul of their banking system budgetary outlays whether immediate or deferred have exceeded 50 of gdp in some cases this paper uses cross country econometric evidence to examine whether the design of crisis containment and resolution policies can systematically influence the overall magnitude of fiscal costs we find that accommodating policies such as blanket deposit guarantees open ended liquidity support repeated partial recapitalizations debtor bail outs and regulatory forbearance all tend to add significantly and sizably to fiscal costs

structural breaks in international tourism demand are they caused by crises or disasters it is recognised that the tourism industry is vulnerable to some form of crises or disaster however despite the attention given to the nature and consequences of tourism crises and disasters there is a gap in the literature regarding the ex post detection of these events in this article we estimate both the number and date of structural breaks in international tourism arrival series for 25 countries and madeira island using the bai and perron 1998 structural break test we compare the date of tourism crises and disasters to the dating of these structural breaks we observe that tourism crises and disasters are largely consistent with the dates of breaks therefore this method allows us to solve a gap in the tourism industry related to the correct allocation of negative shocks in international tourism arrival demand to crisis or disaster phenomena

the european sovereign debt crisis the origin and propagation of the european sovereign debt crisis can be attributed to the flawed original design of the euro in particular there was an incomplete understanding of the fragility of a monetary union under crisis conditions especially in the absence of banking union and other european level buffer mechanisms moreover the inherent messiness involved in proposing and implementing incremental multicountry crisis management responses on the fly has been an important destabilizing factor throughout the crisis after diagnosing the situation we consider reforms that might improve the resilience of the euro area to future fiscal shocks

order imbalance liquidity and market returns traditionally volume has provided the link between trading activity and returns we focus on a hitherto unexplored but intuitive measure of trading activity the aggregate daily order imbalance on the new york stock exchange signed order imbalances increase decrease following market declines rises which reveals that investors are contrarians on aggregate order imbalances in either direction either excess buy or sell orders reduce liquidity market wide returns are strongly affected by contemporaneous and lagged order imbalances market wide returns reverse themselves after high negative imbalance large negative return days the magnitude of this reversal is partially predictable from the level of the imbalance and return even after controlling for aggregate market volume and liquidity market returns are affected by order imbalance

do market capitalization and stocks traded converge new global evidence abstract in this paper we examine convergence of stock markets our empirical exercise is based on 11 different panels which together consist of 120 countries the richness of the dataset allows us to disaggregate countries into panels such as high income middle income low income oecd csi and developing country panels in addition we construct regional panels such as those representing the arab states east asia and the pacific south asia latin america and the caribbean and sub saharan africa our main finding is that based on the conditional convergence model convergence of stock market capitalization and stocks traded is found for four panels namely the high and low income panels the oecd panel and the sub saharan african panel the speed of convergence is high in most cases between 20 and 30

has federal budget deficit policy changed in recent years this paper applies new tests for parameter instability in cointegrated regression models to the u s federal government s intertemporal budget constraint in order to detect whether there has been a regime change in spending and taxing policies some researchers have argued that fiscal policy under presidents reagan and bush moved the u s deficit onto an unsustainable path my results suggest that government deficit policy in the 1980s was not significantly different from policies during the three earlier decades however a diverging debt gnp ratio suggests that the government will run into problems marketing its debt if current policy continues

the greek financial crisis growing imbalances and sovereign spreads abstract we discuss the origins of the greek financial crisis as manifested in the growing fiscal and current account deficits since euro area entry in 2001 we then extend a model typically used to explain risk premia to assess the extent to which credit ratings captured these premia next we estimate a cointegrating relationship between spreads and their long term fundamental determinants and compare the spreads predicted by this estimated relationship with actual spreads we find that spreads were significantly below what would be predicted by fundamentals from end 2004 up to the middle of 2005 by contrast since may 2010 actual spreads have exceeded predicted spreads by some 400 basis points

the great retrenchment international capital flows during the global financial crisis the current crisis saw an unprecedented collapse in international capital flows after years of rising financial globalization we identify the stylized facts and main drivers of this development the retrenchment in international capital flows is a highly heterogeneous phenomenon first across time being especially dramatic in the wake of the lehman brothers failure secondly across types of flows with banking flows being the hardest hit due to their sensitivity of risk perception and thirdly across regions with emerging economies experiencing a shorter lived retrenchment than developed economies our econometric analysis shows that the magnitude of the retrenchment in capital flows across countries is linked to the extent of international financial integration its specific nature with countries relying on bank flows being the hardest hit as well as domestic macroeconomic conditions and their connection to world trade flows gian maria milesi ferretti and cedric tille

europe and global imbalances although europe in the aggregate is not a major contributor to global current account imbalances its trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world mean that it will still be affected by a shift in the current configuration of external deficits and surpluses we assess the macroeconomic impact on europe of global current account adjustment under alternative scenarios emphasizing both trade and financial channels finally we consider heterogeneous exposure across individual european economies to external adjustment shocks philip r lane and gian maria milesi ferretti

optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union we lay out a tractable model for the analysis of optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union the monetary authority sets a common interest rate for the union whereas fiscal policy is implemented at the country level through the choice of government spending in the presence of country specific shocks and nominal rigidities the policy mix that is optimal from the viewpoint of the union as a whole requires that inflation be stabilized at the union level by the common central bank whereas fiscal policy has a country specific stabilization role one beyond the efficient provision of public goods

assessing the mean reversion behaviour of fiscal policy the perspective of asian countries this article investigates fiscal policy sustainability in 10 asian countries by adopting a battery of unit root tests univariate unit root tests reveal that the fiscal stance in these countries follows a nonstationary process while the opposite conclusion was drawn for the same dataset using the commonly employed panel unit root techniques by utilizing the series specific panel unit root test recently developed by breuer et al 2002 suradf seemingly unrelated regression augmented dickey fuller that allows testing for the presence of nonstationarity within individual cross sections of the panel we found that only cross sections four out of 10 countries in the panel are stationary this means that fiscal deficits in most asian countries are in violation of their intertemporal budget constraint and that the deficits are too large

the political economy of the european economic and monetary union political sources of an economic liability emu would be an economic liability a single currency would cause at most small trade and investment gains but would raise average cyclical unemployment and possibly raise inflation perpetuate structural unemployment and increase the risk of protectionism emu is nevertheless being pursued in order to create a political union fundamental disagreements among member states about economic policies foreign and military policies and the sharing of political power are likely to create future intra european conflicts a united europe would be a formidable participant in the twenty first century s global balance of power with uncertain consequences for world stability and peace

innovation in times of crisis national systems of innovation structure and demand this article addresses the impact of the current economic downturn on innovation across europe using micro and macro data we investigate to what extent some structural characteristics of national systems of innovation along with demand affect firms persistency in terms of innovation investment it emerges that the effects of the economic downturn in terms of firms innovation investment are not the same across european countries the competences and quality of the human resources the specialization in the high technology sector together with the development of the financial system seem to be the structural factors which are able to offset the effect of the economic downturn on innovation investments of firms across europe finally some considerations about policies during recessions are discussed

harmonizing iprs on software piracy empirics of trajectories in africa in the current efforts of harmonizing the standards and enforcement of iprs protection worldwide this paper explores software piracy trajectories and dynamics in africa using a battery of estimation techniques that ignore as well as integrate short run disturbances in time dynamic fashion we answer the big questions policy makers are most likely to ask before harmonizing iprs regimes in the battle against software piracy three main findings are established 1 african countries with low software piracy rates are catching up their counterparts with higher rates implying despite existing divergent iprs systems convergence in piracy rate could be a genuine standard setting platform 2 legal origins do not play a very significant role in the convergence process 3 a genuine timeframe for standardizing iprs laws in the fight against piracy is most likely between a horizon of 4 8 years in other words full 100 convergence within the specified horizon will mean the enforcements of iprs regimes without distinction of nationality and locality policy implications and caveats are discussed

the dark side of global integration increasing tail dependence abstract we measure stock market coexceedances using the methodology of cappiello gerard and manganelli 2005 ecb working paper 501 this method enables us to measure comovement at each point of the return distribution first we construct annual coexceedance probabilities for both lower and upper tail return quantiles using daily data from 1974 2006 next we explain these probabilities in a panel gravity model framework results show that macroeconomic variables asymmetrically impact stock market comovement across the return distribution financial liberalization significantly increases left tail comovement whereas trade integration significantly increases comovement across all quantiles decreasing exchange rate volatility results in increasing lower tail comovement the introduction of the euro increases comovement across the entire return distribution thereby significantly reducing the benefits of portfolio diversification within the euro area

sectoral patterns of technological activity and export market share dynamics this paper focuses on a selected number of oecd countries and manufacturing sectors and shows the importance of sectoral diversity in the innovative process and in the relation between technology and world market share dynamics the econometric exercise confirms the importance of technological variables in the relation with world market shares in two ways first they are in general statistically significant second the taxonomy of technological classes in terms of r d intensity seems to be meaningful in disentangling the role played by sectoral diversity in the relation between embodied and disembodied investment and competitiveness sectoral diversity emerges in the statistical significance of the coefficients and in the time lag structure moreover the values of estimated r d parameters are correlated with the sectoral r d intensity

real and monetary convergence between the european union s core and recent member countries a rolling cointegration approach abstract we use rolling cointegration to measure the convergence of base money m2 the cpi and industrial output between germany and france and recent eu members and some transition countries that are now joining the eu countries that joined the eu previously exhibit time varying cointegration with the core countries over the 1980 2000 sample period cointegration for the transition economies was comparable for m2 and prices but not for monetary policy and industrial output thus a peg to the euro soon after accession is feasible for the east european countries but the benefits of joining the euro zone are as yet limited

why do markets move together an investigation of u s japan stock return comovements this article explores the fundamental factors that affect cross country stock return correlations using transactions data from 1988 to 1992 we construct overnight and intraday returns for a portfolio of japanese stocks using their nyse traded american depository receipts adrs and a matched sample portfolio of u s stocks we find that u s macroeconomic announcements shocks to the yen dollar foreign exchange rate and treasury bill returns and industry effects have no measurable influence on u s and japanese return correlations however large shocks to broadbased market indices nikkei stock average and standard and poor s 500 stock index positively impact both the magnitude and persistence of the return correlations stock return cross country covariances play a key role in international finance changes in these covariances affect the volatility of portfolios and asset prices as these covariances increase one expects that a fewer domestic risks are internationally diversifiable so portfolio volatility increases b the risk premium on the world market portfolio increases 1 c the cost of capital increases for individual firms and d the domestic version of the capm becomes increasingly inadequate 2 despite the important economic consequences of changes in cross country covariances the determinants of the levels and dynamics of these covariances have been little studied from an academic

fiscal cyclicality and emu abstract for the set of emu member countries we examine cyclical patterns in fiscal outcomes we find that there is significant time variation in fiscal cyclicality with an improvement in the wake of the maastricht treaty but a deterioration after the creation of emu furthermore we show that the fiscal cycle is affected by the financial cycle in addition to the output cycle the lessons for the current reforms of european economic and fiscal governance are manifest

mean variance convergence around the world abstract in this paper we show i that the risk return characteristics of our sample of 17 developed stock markets of the world have converged significantly toward each other during our study period 1974 2007 and ii that this international convergence in risk return characteristics is driven mainly by the declining country effect rather than the rising industry effect suggesting that the convergence is associated with international market integration specifically we first compute the risk return distance among international stock markets based on the euclidean distance and find that the distance thus computed has been decreasing significantly over time implying a mean variance convergence in particular the average risk return distance has decreased by about 50 over our sample period we also document that the risk return characteristics of our sample of 14 emerging markets have been converging rapidly toward those of developed markets in recent years this development notwithstanding emerging markets still remain as a distinct asset class lastly we show that the convergence in risk return characteristics has exerted a negative impact on the efficiency of international investment during our sample period

the eurozone crisis how banks and sovereigns came to be joined at the hip the eurozone sovereign and banking crisis evolved in three phases following the onset of the subprime tremors in july 2007 the risk premia spreads on bonds issued by eurozone sovereigns rose from historically low levels but they rose largely in tandem across the eurozone membership along with global banking stresses the rescue of the us investment bank bear stearns in march 2008 oddly enough marked the start of a distinctively european banking crisis accompanied by increased differentiation of countries within the eurozone with the greater expectation of public support for distressed banks the spreads that a sovereign paid tended to rise following evidence of stress in its domestic financial sector this was especially so in countries with lower growth prospects and higher debt burdens but there was as yet no feedback from banks to sovereigns finally as the limits of fiscal support for domestic banks became clearer and coinciding with the nationalization of anglo irish in january 2009 but gathering steam with evidence of the greek sovereign s distress in may 2010 sovereign weaknesses also came to be quickly transmitted to a more pessimistic assessment of the financial sector s prospects creating the potential of mutual destabilization ashoka mody and damiano sandri