shopping around how households adjusted food spending over the great recession over the great recession real wages stagnated and unemployment increased concurrently food prices rose sharply outstripping growth in food expenditure and leading to a reduction in calories purchased this has led to concern about rising food poverty we study british households to assess how they adjusted to changes in the economic environment we show they switched to cheaper calories implying food consumption was smoother than expenditure we use longitudinal data to quantify the way households lowered their per calorie spending and show they done this in part by increasing shopping eort and without lowering the nutritional quality of

qualitative assessment of eco labels on fresh produce in flanders belgium highlights a potential intention performance gap for the supply chain abstract when it comes to making sustainable food purchasing choices consumers trust on information provided to them by eco labels this article studies the labels for fresh produce available to consumers in flanders belgium concluding that the existing labelling landscape fails at enabling consumers to make adequate decisions for purchasing environmentally sound food a consumer survey supports the need for additional information on the sustainability of fruits and vegetables a potential intention performance gap is found for producers and in the wider sense for the entire supply chain since current labels found on fresh produce are input or practice based labels farmers adhering to those labels can be considered as having the intention to produce sustainably however this intention alone cannot guarantee good environmental performance in order to close the potential intention performance gap for the supply chain and provide more adequate information to consumers we conclude that performance based labels covering the entire food chain of fresh produce using the life cycle assessment approach lca and including situational parameters such as time of consumption origin and production and distribution mode are indispensable

the effect of using consumption taxes on foods to promote climate friendly diets the case of denmark abstract agriculture is responsible for 17 35 of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions with livestock production contributing by approximately 18 22 of global emissions due to high monitoring costs and low technical potential for emission reductions a tax on consumption may be a more efficient policy instrument to decrease emissions from agriculture than a tax based directly on emissions from production in this study we look at the effect of internalising the social costs of greenhouse gas emissions through a tax based on co 2 equivalents for 23 different foods furthermore we compare the loss in consumer surplus and the changed dietary composition for different taxation scenarios in the most efficient scenario we find a decrease in the carbon footprint from foods for an average household of 2 3 8 8 at a cost of 0 15 1 73 dkk per kg co 2 equivalent whereas the most effective scenario led to a decrease in the carbon footprint of 10 4 19 4 but at a cost of 3 53 6 90 dkk per kg co 2 equivalent the derived consequences for health show that scenarios where consumers are not compensated for the increase in taxation level lead to a decrease in the total daily amount of kj consumed whereas scenarios where the consumers are compensated lead to an increase most scenarios lead to a decrease in the consumption of saturated fat compensated scenarios leads to an increase in the consumption of added sugar whereas uncompensated scenarios lead to almost no change or a decrease generally the results show a low cost potential for using consumption taxes to promote climate friendly diets

securitization of taxes implicit in payg pensions to preserve solvency a pay as you go payg pension system needs to adjust contribution rates and pension promises over time currently it is not possible to hedge in the financial market against politically determined uncertainty as regards these parameters i consider a policy reform whereby property rights are established on the implicit lifetime tax levied by payg finance and are assigned to the pension institution these property rights are well defined if the reform also features rule based allocation of aggregate risk in the form of defined contribution or defined benefit schemes i show that a payg pension system may indeed be instantly restructured so as to minimize political risk and allow financial market diversification of risk a side benefit is securitization of human capital flows which are not traded in existing financial markets the new securities if traded in appropriately competitive financial markets are complementary to the notional account reforms of the 1990s however fiscal instability can increase if securitization is implemented in the absence of initial solvency and credible adoption of rule based methods to allocate aggregate risk salvador valdes prieto

public pension reform in europe policies prospects and evaluation this paper describes the demographic and economic factors underlying the reform of public pension programmes in europe it examines the policy response both at the europe wide level and within individual european countries several programme reform strategies that have been implemented are evaluated these strategies are the greater pre funding of public pensions and expanded second tier private pension components parametric reforms to existing programmes and the development of formula driven actuarially fair public programmes efforts to provide greater incentives for individuals to postpone retirement are also discussed

green market expansion by reducing information asymmetries evidence for labeled organic food products abstract we investigate how the provision of objective information about the environmental and health impact of organic labels by policy makers can influence the willingness to pay of consumers for labeled organic apples in flanders belgium using a stated choice experiment we initially find that flemish consumers are willing to pay a positive price premium of some 33 eurocent per kilogram for labeled organic apples after the provision of information on the actual environmental and health effects of organic apple production this price premium becomes even more pronounced and increases to 57 eurocent per kilogram using a conditional logit model with covariates and a mixed logit model we find evidence of preference heterogeneity also the effect of information provision is more pronounced for certain groups of consumers such as non vegetarians infrequent buyers of organic products and members of a nature protection organization as such this paper illustrates that there is a role for policy makers and csr producers in providing more accurate and reliable information about socially responsible production processes moreover it is important to take the observed preference heterogeneity into account and tailor policies to specific consumer groups

design of a climate tax on food consumption examples of tomatoes and beef in sweden abstract this study examined appropriate design of efficient climate taxes on consumption of food by constructing a simple theoretical model and exemplifying the results using the examples of tomatoes and beef in sweden the theoretical results showed that for the tax to be efficient i existing taxes on greenhouse gases ghgs should be considered when calculating the climate impact in order to avoid double taxation and ii taxes should be differentiated between ghg here carbon dioxide co2 methane ch4 and nitrous oxide n2o because of their differing climate impacts the calculations of climate taxes on tomatoes and beef in sweden indicated considerable differences in the tax level depending on whether conditions i and ii were considered or not the commonly applied approach in the literature on climate taxes on food i e taxing carbon dioxide equivalents co2e using global warming potential over 100 years gwp100 and neglecting existing taxes on ghg emissions results in a tax that is 1 4 2 8 times higher than the efficient tax for tomatoes and a tax that is between 30 lower and 20 higher than the efficient tax for beef despite the relatively low variations in the climate tax on beef estimated reduction in emissions from beef ranged between 23 and 35 depending on choice of tax the price increases on food due to a climate tax and associated effects on emissions can thus show large variation depending on the tax calculation method

finnish consumer perceptions of carbon footprints and carbon labelling of food products abstract the aim of this study was to explore how finnish consumers perceive the communication of carbon footprints for food products the study comprised five semi structured focus groups and an online survey of 1010 respondents the study showed that the term product carbon footprint is familiar to many but there is substantial misunderstanding of its meaning only 7 of the respondents linked product carbon footprint spontaneously to greenhouse gas emissions associated with the product and an additional 5 of the respondents linked it to climate change there are positive attitudes towards carbon labels 90 stated that a carbon footprint would have at least a little impact on their buying decision but the information became meaningful only when many other purchasing criteria such as price and taste were satisfied furthermore 86 preferred carbon labels that allow comparisons of carbon footprints to be made among food products but there is divergence on perceived needs for carbon label content

stochastic dominance and mean variance measures of profit and loss for business planning and investment in this paper we first extend the stochastic dominance sd theory by introducing the first three orders of both ascending sd asd and descending sd dsd to decisions in business planning and investment to risk averse and risk loving decision makers so that they can compare both return and loss we provide investors with more tools for empirical analysis with which they can identify the first order asd and dsd prospects and discern arbitrage opportunities that could increase his her utility as well as wealth and set up a zero dollar portfolio to make huge profit our tools also enable investors and business planners to identify the third order asd and dsd prospects and make better choices to complement the stochastic dominance approach we also introduce an improved mean variance criterion to decisions in business planning or investment on both return and loss for risk averse and riskloving investors we then illustrate the superiority of the present approaches with well known examples in the literature and discuss the relationship between the improved stochastic dominance and mean variance criteria

are rich people smarter abstract we formulate a general stochastic process of wealth accumulation by capital investment and analyze the conditions required to ensure convergence to the empirically observed pareto wealth distribution while homogeneous investment talent leads to the pareto distribution under very general conditions even a mild degree of differential investment talent results in a non pareto wealth distribution this finding suggests that chance rather than differential investment talent is the dominant factor in the process of wealth accumulation by financial investment our findings conform with market efficiency and may have implications regarding the origins the economic significance and the social desirability of wealth inequality at the high wealth range

the case for gdp indexed bonds gds indexed bonds this paper seeks to revive the case for countries to insure against economic growth slowdowns by issuing bonds indexed to the rate of growth of gdp we show that gdp indexed bonds could provide substantial benefits in reducing the likelihood of default crises and allowing countries to avoid pro cyclical fiscal policies we simulate the effects of gdp indexed bonds under different assumptions about fiscal policy reaction functions and their output effects and find that they could substantially reduce the likelihood of debt gdp paths becoming explosive the insurance premium would likely be small because cross country comovement of gdp growth rates is low and cross country gdp growth risk is thus largely diversifiable for an investor holding a portfolio of gdp indexed bonds potential obstacles to the emergence of a market for these bonds include the verifiability of gdp data the trade off between insurance and moral hazard and the need for liquidity theory and past experience suggest that financial innovation often requires official intervention and its timing and form are difficult to predict we discuss institutional fixes and suggest an approach for attempting to start up a market eduardo borensztein and paolo mauro

aging population retirement and risk taking the increase in life expectancy spells disaster at retirement one can solve this problem by investing in the maximum geometric mean mgm portfolio which is empirically composed from equity for a t 30 year horizon or more the mgm portfolio dominates other investment strategies by almost first degree stochastic dominance the mgm portfolio also maximizes the expected value of the commonly employed preferences and prospect theory value function for various loss aversion parameters and various reference points for t 10 life cycle funds would increase virtually all investors welfare by shifting to the mgm portfolio so long as the investment horizon is at least 10 years this paper was accepted by amit seru finance

environmental impacts of changes to healthier diets in europe food consumption causes together with mobility shelter and the use of electrical products most life cycle impacts of consumption meat and dairy are among the highest contributors to environmental impacts from food consumption a healthier diet might have less environmental impacts using the e3iot environmentally extended input output database developed in an eu study on environmental impacts of products eipro this paper estimates the difference in impacts between the european status quo and three simulated diet baskets i e a pattern according to universal dietary recommendations the same pattern with reduced meat consumption and a mediterranean pattern with reduced meat consumption production technologies protein and energy intake were kept constant though this implies just moderate dietary shifts impact reductions of up to 8 were possible in reduced meat scenarios the slightly changed food costs do not lead to significant first order rebound effects second order rebounds were estimated by applying the capri partial equilibrium model this analysis showed that european meat production sector will most likely respond by higher exports to compensate for losses on the domestic meat market higher impact reductions probably would need more drastic diet changes 2011 elsevier b v

a ricardian equivalence theorem on the taxation of pension funds abstract we compare the three main alternative ways of taxing pension funds of the defined contribution variety specifically the alternatives considered are equal yield taxes on contributions earnings and benefits analogous to the ricardian equivalence theorem the contributor s after tax benefit will be the same in each case

almost stochastic dominance and stocks for the long run abstract the geometric mean argument and the recently developed almost stochastic dominance criterion have been employed to make the case for stocks for the long run we show that almost stochastic dominance and the geometric mean argument do not necessarily support long run investment in equities in fact for standard preferences bonds may be preferred to stocks for the long run while stocks are preferred for shorter horizons

farm costs and food miles an assessment of the full cost of the uk weekly food basket changes in both farm production and food transport have resulted in the imposition of new levels of environmental costs this study analyses the full costs of foods in the average weekly uk food basket by calculating the costs arising at diverent stages from farms to consumers plates of the 12 commodities assessed livestock produce contributes the most costs per kg the external cost of uk agriculture up to the farm gate is estimated to be 1 51 bn yr i1 it is calculated that a switch to organic production could lead to avoided costs of 1 13 bn yr i1 agricultural and food produce accounts for 28 of goods transported on uk roads currently imposing estimated external costs of 2 35 bn yr i1 the contribution made by sea and air transport is currently trivial owing to low volumes however road transport to carry food from the shop to home is estimated to impose a further 1 28 bn yr i1 to total external costs subsidies not targeted at environmental improvements cost consumers 2 88 bn yr i1 thus the real cost of the per capita uk food basket 24 79 is calculated to be 2 91 more per person wk i1 11 8 if externalities and subsidies are included with farm externalities 81 p domestic road transport 76 p government subsidies 93 p and shopping transport 41 p contributing the most we assess a variety of scenarios for adoption of organic farming localised food systems and sustainable transport to indicate the substantial potential to reduce environmental costs in the uk food system 2005 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

population age structure intergenerational transfer and wealth a new approach with applications to the united states this paper focuses upon intergenerational transfers overlapping generation models generational accounting and life cycle saving while assuming golden rule steady states and stable age profiles of transfers and economic activity using 1987 us data synthetic cohort methods were employed to explore how resource allocation over the life cycle generates real wealth and transfer wealth through the family public sector and financial markets while data problems assumption violations and accounting framework shortcomings would not permit firm conclusions transfer wealth in the us nonetheless seems to be about 2 3 greater than real wealth social security wealth medicare wealth and government debt are the main positive forms of wealth and together have greater value than real wealth transfer wealth must therefore displace holdings of physical capital and lead to lower labor productivity and higher interest rates

is local food more environmentally friendly the ghg emissions impacts of consuming imported versus domestically produced food with the increased interest in the carbon footprint of global economic activities civil society governments and the private sector are calling into question the wisdom of transporting food products across continents instead of consuming locally produced food while the proposition that local consumption will reduce one s carbon footprint may seem obvious at first glance this conclusion is not at all clear when one considers that the economic emissions intensity of food production varies widely across regions in this paper we concentrate on the tradeoff between production and transport emissions reductions by testing the following hypothesis substitution of domestic for imported food will reduce the direct and indirect greenhouse gas ghg emissions associated with consumption we focus on ruminant livestock since it has the highest emissions intensity across food sectors but we also consider other food products as well and alternately perturb the mix of domestic and imported food products by a marginal equal amount we then compare the emissions associated with each of these consumption changes in order to compute a marginal emissions intensity of local food consumption by country and product the variations in regional ruminant emissions intensities have profound implications for the food miles debate while shifting consumption patterns in wealthy countries from imported to domestic livestock products reduces ghg emissions associated with international trade and transport activity we find that these transport emissions reductions are swamped by changes in global emissions due to differences in ghg emissions intensities of production therefore diverting consumption to local goods only reduces global emissions when undertaken in regions with relatively low emissions intensities for non ruminant products the story is more nuanced transport costs are more important in the case of dairy products and vegetable oils overall domestic emissions intensities are the dominant part of the food miles story in about 90 of the country commodity cases examined here

intergenerational risk sharing and risk taking of a pension fund abstract by using their financial reserves efficiently pension funds can smooth shocks on their asset returns and can thus facilitate intergenerational risk sharing in addition to the primary benefit of improved time diversification this form of risk allocation affords the additional benefit of allowing these funds to take better advantage of the equity premium which also favors the consumers in this paper our aim is twofold first we characterize the socially efficient policy rules of a collective pension plan in terms of portfolio management capital payments to retirees and dividend payments to shareholders we examine both the first best rules and the second best rules where in the latter case the fund is constrained by a solvency constraint and by a guaranteed minimum return to workers contributions second we measure the social surplus of the system compared to a situation in which each generation would save and invest in isolation for its own retirement we estimate that the certainty equivalent return of the pension saving scheme goes from 3 23 per year to 3 76 when intergenerational risk sharing is introduced one of the main results of the paper is that better intergenerational risk sharing does not reduce the risk born by each generation rather it increases the expected return to the workers contributions

a stochastic dominance comparison of water conserving irrigation strategies stochastic dominance and stochastic dominance with respect to a function are used to compare water conserving irrigation strategies in an area of declining ground water supplies a computerized grain sorghum plant growth model using daily weather observations provides the basis for stochastic dominance comparisons six irrigation strategies dominate contemporary intensive irrigation practices by first degree stochastic dominance and two additional strategies exhibit second degree stochastic dominance over contemporary practices dominant strategies involve irrigating based on a 45 percent soil water criterion and eliminating early season irrigations some dominant strategies reduce water use by as much as 40 percent while increasing expected net returns

effects of an environmental tax on meat and dairy consumption in sweden this study evaluated the environmental impacts of introducing an environmental tax on meat and dairy consumption in sweden three meat products beef pork and chicken four dairy products milk fermented products cream and cheese and four pollutants generating environmental damage greenhouse gases ghg nitrogen ammonia and phosphorus were included in the analysis the unit tax applied corresponded to between 8 9 and 33 3 of the respective price per kg product in 2009 consumer response to the tax was calculated by econometric estimates of the almost ideal demand system aids for meat and dairy products using per capita consumption data and prices the results indicated relatively inelastic own price elasticities and high income elasticities for all meat products and slightly lower for dairy products simultaneous introduction of a tax on all seven products decreased emissions of ghg nitrogen ammonia and phosphorus from the livestock sector by up to 12

after the big bang obstacles to the emergence of the rule of law in post communist societies when russia launched mass privatization it was widely believed that it would create a powerful constituency for the rule of law that didn t happen we present a dynamic equilibrium model of the political demand for the rule of law and show that beneficiaries of mass privatization may fail to demand the rule of law even if it is the pareto efficient rule of the game the reason is that uncertainty about the legal regime can lead to asset stripping and stripping can give agents an interest in prolonging the absence of the rule of law this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the energy efficiency of local food systems a comparison between different modes of distribution abstract the possible contribution of local sales chains to the reduction of energy consumption has been hotly debated in recent years some authors establish a link between the reduction of distances traveled by food and lower energy consumption due to transportation while others hold that local supply chains have a poor energy performance this article engages this debate by comparing the rates of energy consumption attributable to different modes of distribution of fruits and vegetables in a region of france by studying actors actual practices we show that the establishment of local food systems leads to organizational efforts at the local level or in the form of geographically centralized networks which allow energy expenditures linked to distribution to be minimized the studied chains performances are variable from 13 5 to 44 8 goe gram of oil equivalent per euro of product bringing them close to long chains in the best examples comparison with other research underscores the diversity of methods which are put in place they also show that energy performance remains very dependent on where the study was conducted ultimately this study invites us to better analyze the ways in which actors collaborate to optimize energy expenditures relative to the distribution of food products in local sales chains

five a day a price to pay an evaluation of the uk program impact accounting for market forces we provide an ex post assessment of the uk 5 a day information campaign where the positive effects of information are disentangled from potentially conflicting price dynamics using 4 years of data from the expenditure and food survey between 2002 and 2006 we estimate that the 5 a day program has lifted fruit and vegetable consumption by 0 3 portions on average we also provide quantitative evidence of a differentiated impact by income group ranging from 0 2 to 0 7 portions all impacts are larger than those observed by simply comparing pre policy and post policy intakes

ten years of five a day policy in the uk nutritional outcomes and environmental effects abstract this paper estimates the impact of policy measures aimed at increasing fruit and vegetable f v consumption in the uk over more than a decade evaluating changes in purchased quantities and estimating the corresponding greenhouse gas emissions ghges we use a counterfactual scenario analysis to isolate the effects of the policy from the influences of evolving prices incomes and socio demographic factors our estimates suggest that the positive effects of the promotion campaigns on f v purchases about half a portion per adult equivalent per day still persist 10 years after the start of the policy implementation and we find no evidence of a wearout effect we also provide suggestive evidence that the dietary adjustment which accompanies the increase in f v intakes translates into a relevant reduction in ghges by an average amount of 3 3kg of co2e per adult equivalent per month

reference dependent risk attitudes we use koszegi and rabin s 2006 model of reference dependent utility and an extension of it that applies to decisions with delayed consequences to study preferences over monetary risk because our theory equates the reference point with recent probabilistic beliefs about outcomes it predicts specific ways in which the environment influences attitudes toward modest scale risk it replicates classical prospect theory including the prediction of distaste for insuring losses when exposure to risk is a surprise but implies first order risk aversion when a risk and the possibility of insuring it are anticipated a prior expectation to take on risk decreases aversion to both the anticipated and additional risk for large scale risk the model allows for standard consumption utility to dominate reference dependent gain loss utility generating nearly identical risk aversion across situations

the future of pensions in europe rescuing unfunded pensions suitably amended unfunded schemes remain a good idea unfunded state pension schemes are projected to become financially unsustainable this is usually attributed to demographic trends yet trends in unemployment and in female labour force participation are quantitatively as important improvements in either or both might be sufficient to rescue existing state schemes especially if combined with an end to the practice of allowing even after retirement the value of a pension to rise with national earnings rather than prices attempts at piecemeal reform are important because nothing in economic theory suggests a switch to the alternative fully funded pensions is desirable not only would such a transition be costly and therefore politically difficult it also neglects the fact that it makes sense to diversify the retirement portfolio holding claims both on labour productivity and on capital assets one can even view pensions as part of a more sophisticated system of intergenerational transfers through which workers finance their earlier education and subsequent retirement michele boldrin juan j dolado juan f jimeno and franco peracchi

intergenerational risk sharing abstract in this paper we examine government debt and tax transfer policies that can be improve the allocation of risk between generations markets cannot allocate risk efficiently between two generations whenever the two generations are not both alive prior to the occurence of a stochastic event this implies that government policies transferring risk between generations have the potential to create first order welfare improvements our model provides a non keynesian justification for the debt finance of wars and recessions as well as an added rationale for social security type tax transfer schemes which aid unlucky generations e g the depression generation at the expense of luckier generations

conservation payments under risk a stochastic dominance approach conservation payments can be used to preserve forest and agroforest systems to explain landowners land use decisions and determine appropriate conservation payments it is necessary to focus on revenue risk marginal conditional stochastic dominance rules are used to derive conditions for determining the conservation payments required to guarantee that the environmentally preferred land use dominates an empirical application to shaded coffee protection in the biologically important choco region of west ecuador shows that conservation payments required for preserving shaded coffee areas are much higher than those calculated under risk neutral assumptions further the extant distribution of land has strong impacts on the required payments

the politics of intergenerational redistribution this paper studies the political economic equilibrium of a two period model with overlapping generations in each period the policy is chosen under majority rule by the generations currently alive the paper identifies a politically viable set of values for public debt any amount of debt within this set is fully repaid in equilibrium even without commitments by issuing debt within this set the first generation redistributes revenue in its favor and away from the second generation the paper characterizes the determinants of the equilibrium intergenerational redistribution and identifies a difference between debt and social security as instruments of redistribution

effect of eating seasonal on the carbon footprint of swedish vegetable consumption abstract the advice on climate smart food consumption given by authorities and ngos includes the recommendation to eat seasonal foods however no clear definition of seasonality is given in the literature this study investigated how the carbon footprint of yearly per capita consumption of tomatoes and carrots in sweden was affected by seasonal consumption according to interpretations of seasonality found in communications from swedish ngos and authorities the results showed that the carbon footprint of carrot and tomato consumption was strongly affected by consuming according to either a strict definition of seasonality which excluded both production in heated greenhouses and long distance transport or a definition which only allowed swedish produce the reduction potential was approximately 60 but the consumption pattern was also highly restrictive with e g tomatoes only being consumed during three months according to the strictest definition the reduction from eating only swedish products was not due primarily to characteristics commonly associated with seasonal production shorter transport or low energy demand in cultivation but to the use of renewable fuel instead of fossil energy the methodology chosen in this study resulted in carrots having a more distinct season than tomatoes since the energy use for heating greenhouses which are needed all year round in cold climates was evenly allocated across all tomatoes harvested during one year while the carbon footprint of carrots was assumed to increase with time due to increased energy demand for storage and storage losses hence modern production techniques challenge the traditional concepts of seasonality on an absolute scale including the whole food sector the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from eating seasonal is limited as emissions from vegetable production make up a minor proportion of the total emissions from food consumption

retirement security in an aging population abstract elderly individuals exhibit wide disparities in their sources of income for those in the bottom half of the income distribution social security is the most important source of support program changes would directly affect their well being income from private pensions assets and earnings are relatively more important for higher income elderly individuals who have more diverse income sources the trend from private sector defined benefit to defined contribution pension plans has shifted responsibility for retirement security to individuals a significant subset of the population is unlikely to be able to sustain their standard of living in retirement without higher pre retirement saving

from traditional db to notional dc systems the pension reform process in sweden italy and germany this paper provides a critical review of the pension reform strategy that turns defined benefits db public pay as you go systems into notional defined contribution ndc systems we show that properly designed ndc public pension systems contain powerful economic and political mechanisms that may facilitate pension reform but that the distinction between public ndc and db systems is more ambiguous than usually claimed jel h55 j14 j26

correction the composition and drawdown of wealth in retirement in extending our research on issues related to those in this paper we have discovered an error in our calculations of the expected present discounted value of life contingent payout streams in our paper the composition and drawdown of wealth in retirement published in the fall 2011 issue of this journal this error affected entries in tables 1 and 2 of the paper and the associated discussion the error overstated the wealth equivalent value of both social security and defi ned benefi t pensions the corrected values shown in the tables below indicate that the average capitalized value of social security for all retirementage households is 204 264 rather than 341 556 the mean capitalized value of defi ned benefi t pension payouts is 99 147 taken together social security and defi ned benefi t pension wealth represent 34 9 percent of the mean value of household wealth not 46 percent as initially reported the share of home equity which was previously reported as 16 8 percent correspondingly rises to 20 2 percent and

compiling the actuarial balance for pay as you go pension systems is it better to use the hidden asset or the contribution asset the aim of this article is twofold to establish the connection between the contribution asset ca and the hidden asset ha and to determine whether using either of them to compile the actuarial balance ab sheet in the pay as you go payg pension system will provide a reliable solvency indicator with these aims in mind we develop a model based on those first put forward by settergren and mikula 2005 and boado penas et al 2008 to obtain the analytical properties of the ca and to confirm its soundness as a measure of the assets of a payg scheme our model also enables us to explore whether and to what extent the ha can be considered a second alternative measure of the assets for payg schemes the main theoretical finding is that despite their very different natures the ha and the ca may nearly coincide at the limit when the interest rate of the financial market approaches the growth of the covered wage bill from above but the ha supplies a solvency indicator which is not always consiste

stochastic dominance and expected utility survey and analysis while stochastic dominance has been employed in various forms as early as 1932 it has only been since 1969 1970 that the notion has been developed and extensively employed in the area of economics finance agriculture statistics marketing and operations research in this survey the first second and third order stochastic dominance rules are discussed with an emphasis on the development in the area since the 1980s

jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour theory and estimates for germany italy uk and usa abstract the comparative statics predictions of models of the joint determination of household saving and fertility are derived under various hypotheses self interest altruism of parents towards children altruism of children towards parents etc and compared with those of models which determine saving under the assumption of exogenous fertility country specific saving and fertility equations are then estimated using time series data for germany italy uk and usa for each of the countries considered the estimates are consistent with the hypothesis that saving and fertility are jointly determined by self interested parents and reject the alternative hypotheses the data also show that a self financing expansion of social security discourages fertility and generally raises household saving

empirical age earnings profiles the human capital earnings function in which earnings are expressed as a quadratic in potential experience is probably the most widely accepted empirical specification in economics in spite of its widespread acceptance the human capital earnings function provides a very poor approximation of the true empirical relationship between earnings and experience the standard formulation understates early career earnings growth by about 30 50 and overstates midcareer growth by 20 50 however simple alternative specifications that fit the data are available

lessons for an aging society the political sustainability of social security systems what is the future of social systems in oecd countries in our view the answer belongs to the realm of politics we evaluate how political constraints shape the social security system in six countries france germany italy spain the uk and the us under population aging two main aspects of the aging process are relevant to the analysis first the increase in the dependency ratio the ratio of retirees of workers reduces the average profitability of the unfunded social security system thereby inducing the agents to reduce the size of the system by substituting their claims towards future pensions with more private savings second an aging electorate leads to larger systems since it increases the relevance of pension spending on the policy makers agenda the overall assessment from our simulations is that the political aspect dominates in all countries albeit with some differences spain the fastest aging country faces the largest increase in the social security contribution rate when labor market considerations are introduced the political effect still dominates but it is less sizeable country specific characteristics not accounted for in our simulations such as the degree of redistribution in the pension system and the existence of family ties in the society may also matter our simulations deliver a strong policy implication an increase in the effective retirement age always decreases the size of the system chosen by the voters while often increasing its generosity finally delegation of pension policy to the ec may reduce political accountability and hence help to reform the systems

prospect theory and mean variance analysis the experimental results of prospect theory pt reveal suggest that investors make decisions based on change of wealth rather than total wealth that preferences are s shaped with a risk seeking segment and that probabilities are subjectively distorted this article shows that while pt s findings are in sharp contradiction to the foundations of mean variance mv analysis counterintuitively when diversification between assets is allowed the mv and pt efficient sets almost coincide thus one can employ the mv optimization algorithm to construct ptefficient portfolios the markowitz 1952a tobin 1958 mean variance mv rule is probably the most popular investment decision rule under uncertainty in economics and in finance and it is widely employed by both academics and practitioners the strength of the mv analysis is that in the case of normal return distributions the choice of any expected utility maximizing risk averse individual will be according to the mv rule 1 the mv framework is the foundation of the sharpe 1964 lintner 1965 capital asset pricing model capm which is a cornerstone of modern finance moreover the mv framework provides a very important practical procedure for the construction of efficient portfolios while standard economic theory and in particular mv analysis assume expected utility maximization and risk aversion in a breakthrough article kahneman and tversky 1979 show that the actual behavior of individuals systematically and consistently violates these

food labeling and eco friendly consumption experimental evidence from a belgian supermarket using an incentive compatible framed field experiment we investigate whether consumers food consumption is more eco friendly when the information about a product s environmental impact is more easily accessible through an online survey we identify a food label that is perceived to be the most easily accessible for assessing a product s eco friendliness among six alternatives these alternatives vary on multiple dimensions including whether a standardized score of the overall environmental impact is added this new food label is subsequently tested in an experimental food market embedded in a belgian supermarket we find that the presence of the new label that was preselected in the online survey leads to more eco friendly food consumption relative to either the label currently used in the supermarket or the label that contains the raw information of the environmental impact in our experimental food market the use of an easy to interpret but comprehensive environmental information label increases the overall eco friendliness of our subjects food consumption by about 5 3 relative to the default label used in current markets

on the valuation of long dated assets i show that the pricing of a broad class of long dated assets is driven by the possibility of extraordinarily bad news this result does not depend on any assumptions about the existence of disasters nor does it apply only to assets that hedge bad outcomes indeed it applies even to long dated claims on the market in a lognormal world if the market s sharpe ratio is higher than its volatility as appears to be the case in practice

the growing gap in life expectancy using the future elderly model to estimate implications for social security and medicare across the industrialized world health and mortality gradients by education and income have generally been steepening crimmins and saito 2001 meara richards and cutler 2008 goldman and smith 2011 the leading explanations for the increased gaps in life expectancy involve differential trends in smoking diet and exercise stress chronic disease management and access to health care less well known however is the impact these trends will have on public programs and their progressivity especially social security and medicare to fill this gap this paper uses the future elderly model fem a microsimulation model of health and economic outcomes for older americans to estimate the effects of steeper mortality gradients on the progressivity of social security and medicare benefits

the financial stability of notional account pensions a number of european countries are reforming their pension benefit formulas by adopting notional accounts these accounts are used to determine individual benefits but pay as you go financing is retained this paper addresses the belief that by choosing adjustment rules cleverly notional accounts can provide automatic financial equilibrium in the short run if this were true it would be a valuable advantage in terms of insulating the government budget from demographic pressures while insulating the pension budget from fiscal pressures it is shown that notional account benefit formulas cannot provide automatic financial equilibrium in the short run the paper also suggests that if indexing rules are chosen in a particular way and shocks revert rapidly to a mean the pension institution may achieve financial stability in the long run however long run stability is unlikely to be valuable because political interference occurs in the short run

wage declines among older men we examine the evidence on whether real wages decline with age among older men while the general human capital model of wage growth over the life cycle predicts that wages will fall as workers approach the end of their career alternative models of wage growth do not predict these wage declines we find that in longitudinal estimates of age wage profiles wage declines only set in for workers in their 60s furthermore these longitudinal declines are at least partly due to interactions with the social security system the earnings cap or other effects of social security appear to lead some workers to choose jobs and job characteristics associated with lower wages copyright 1996 by mit press

healthy bodies and thick wallets the dual relation between health and economic status there is abundant evidence of a quantitatively large association between many measures of economic status including income and wealth and a variety of health outcomes such as mortality or morbidity however considerable and often heated debate remains especially across disciplines about the direction of causation and about why the association arises although medical scientists are often convinced that the dominant if not exclusive pathway is that variation in socioeconomic status produces health disparities they are increasingly debating among themselves about why low economic status might lead to poor health at least for modern industrial countries 1 the old standby arguments the less well to do have access to less or lower quality medical care or a stronger pattern of deleterious personal behaviors have been rejected as insufficient instead a series of intriguing competing theories have arisen that emphasize long term impacts of early childhood or even inter uterine environmental factors the cumulative effects of prolonged exposures to individual stressful events or reactions to macro societal factors such as rising levels of income inequality a common link is that each theory attempts to document the physiological processes through which low economic status leads to poorer health while these scientific questions are extremely important this research has taken place with little input from economists economists are now making contributions about the alternative pathway the impact poor health may have on economic resources poor health may restrict a family s capacity to earn income or to accumulate assets by limiting work or by raising medical expenses at a minimum this work should provide a caution against exaggerating the magnitude of causation from economic status to health outcomes but the potential contribution runs deeper as people age the evolving variation in individual health outcomes may offer additional statistical information to estimate parameters of household savings and consumption behavior that so far have proven to be somewhat elusive thus incorporating health uncertainty and risk into economic models should eventually enrich our understanding of basic tenets of household behavior the first section of this paper documents the size of the association between health and one prominent economic status measure household wealth section two deals with how health influences economic status by sketching out reasons why health may alter household savings and eventually wealth and then providing estimates of the empirical magnitude of these effects section three shifts attention to the alternative pathway the links between economic status and health and summarizes 2major controversies and evidence surrounding these issues

bonds versus stocks investors age and risk taking abstract it has become increasingly popular to advise investors to relocate their funds from a primarily stock portfolio to a primarily bond portfolio as they get older however the well known decision rules such as mean variance or stochastic dominance rules are unable to explain this common practice almost stochastic dominance asd and almost mean variance amv approaches are used to examine the dominance of stock and bond portfolios asd and amv rules unambiguously support the popular practice of advising higher stock to bond ratio for long investment horizons hence we provide an explanation to the practitioners recommendation within the expected utility paradigm

carbon labelling of grocery products public perceptions and potential emissions reductions abstract public perceptions of a uk carbon labelling trial were assessed via three focus groups the public found it very difficult to make sense of labelled emissions values without additional information there was also little evidence of a willingness to use labels for product selection there is a strong case for using carbon reduction labels to indicate a programme of on going emissions reductions rather than expecting consumers to incentivise emissions reductions by actively choosing the lower carbon variant of two or more products the normalisation issues and emissions reduction potential of carbon labelling are discussed

stocks for the log run and constant relative risk aversion preferences abstract almost stochastic dominance implies that stocks are preferred over bonds in the long run by all preferences with bounded marginal utility unfortunately this analysis excludes the very central constant relative risk aversion crra preferences which have unbounded marginal utility we derive a simple closed form solution for the portfolio choice problem of crra investors which with the empirical parameters implies that stocks are preferred over bonds for all crra investors with relative risk aversion smaller than 3 9 as a by product the analysis offers an alternative derivation of the continuous time capm that does not rely on dynamic programming and allows for ambiguous investment horizons

targets for global climate policy an overview a survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality the estimated pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders a lower discount rate or greater concern for the global distribution of income would justify more stringent climate policy but would imply an overhaul of other public policies catastrophic risk justifies more stringent climate policy but only to a limited extent

preferred by all and preferred by most decision makers almost stochastic dominance while most decision makers may prefer one uncertain prospect over another stochastic dominance rules as well as other investment criteria will not reveal this preference due to some extreme utility functions in the case of even a very small violation of these rules such strict rules relate to all utility functions in a given class including extreme ones which presumably rarely represents investors preference in this paper we establish almost stochastic dominance asd rules which formally reveal a preference for most decision makers but not for all of them the asd rules reveal that choices which probably conform with most decision makers also solve some debates e g showing as practitioners claim an asd preference for a higher proportion of stocks in the portfolio as the investment horizon increases a conclusion which is not implied by the well known stochastic dominance rules

does the ndc scheme mimic the french point system after the implementation of the notional defined contribution ndc pension scheme in italy and sweden in the 90s some authors argued that its design merely replicates the functioning of the poin

the determinants of the macroeconomic implications of aging abstract the aging of the us population undoubtedly will be associated with macroeconomic changes in particular some combination of lower consumption growth and increased labor input will ultimat

comment on s valdes prieto the financial stability of notional account pensions in an important contribution to this journal valdes prieto 2000 has shown that the recently popular concept of notional accounts cannot guarantee short run financial stability of pay as you go financed public pension schemes in the sense of automatic budget equality for any given time path of the contribution rate in result 2 p 406 he states that notional accounts do not provide automatic financial balance in the short run when the credited notional interest rate is the growth rate of contribution revenue except for the steady state growth case in the proof he uses a table p 408 table 1 in which the maximum value of the ratio of expenditures to revenues of the pension plan is calculated for the case of a rising growth rate of contribution revenue this maximum ratio is always above 1 the author explains his finding as follows when the growth rate of contribution revenue is used as the notional interest rate which is credited to the stock of notional capital of those members reaching age 65 the rise in expenditure is greater than the rise in revenue generating a deficit ibid the following simple example confirms result 2 but shows that the ratio of expenditures to revenues behaves in the opposite way to that asserted by valdes prieto a rise in the growth rate of revenues leads to a temporary surplus of the plan whereas a fall in the growth rate implies a temporary deficit the example is based on a discrete time 3 olg model in which individuals work the first two periods of their three period life earning 1 dollar each and the contribution rate 0 is fixed at 20 percent contributions are credited to the notional account in the period in which they are paid and earn an interest equal to the growth rate of contribution revenue which is credited to the account at the beginning of the next period at the beginning of the third period the account balance is paid out as a one shot retirement benefit in panel a of table 1 it is assumed that there are 100 workers in each of the cohorts entering the labor market in period t 2 and that this number

using food taxes and subsidies to achieve emission reduction targets in norway food production contributes considerably to global greenhouse gas ghg emissions animal products particularly meat from ruminants generally have higher ghg emissions than plant products over the last few decades the global per capita consumption of animal products has increased this has a negative impact on climate change land and water availability and human health we are faced with the two fold challenge of reducing ghg emissions while still producing enough food for our growing population part of the solution could be for consumers to change towards a more sustainable diet in this paper we take norway as a case study for estimating optimal taxes and subsidies on different food items which can change consumption patterns in order to reduce the ghg emissions derived from the average norwegian diet in the estimate we ensure that the average calorie intake with the new diet remains the same as with the current diet and factor in other health considerations our findings suggest that limited but useful emission reduction targets can be set with only a few changes in diets the methodology presented in this paper may be used to estimate optimal climate taxes and subsidies under different emission quantities taxes subsidies and health constraints

welfare and sustainability effects of dietary recommendations the paper develops a framework combining a model of rational behaviour under dietary constraints an epidemiological model of diet related mortality and a life cycle analysis model of environmental impact which permits the ex ante assessment of dietary recommendations in multiple sustainability dimensions i e taste cost welfare effect deaths avoided reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and acidification it is applied to compare in a french context the relative effects and efficiency of six popular sustainable diet recommendations the results confirm the synergies between the health and environmental dimensions healthy eating recommendations usually have a positive effect on the environment although some exceptions exist most of the sustainable diet recommendations appear highly cost effective but those most commonly promoted on health grounds e g targeting consumption of salt fruits and vegetables and saturated fat rank highest in terms of overall efficiency moreover the valuation of benefits indicates that in most cases health benefits are significantly larger than environmental benefits overall the analysis reveals some under investment in the promotion of sustainable diet recommendations in france the general lack of enthusiasm in policy circles for informational measures promoting behavioural change may reflect unrealistic expectations about the speed and magnitude of dietary change rather than an objective assessment of the efficiency of those measures

the gains from pension reform we classify social security pension systems in three dimensions actuarial versus non actuarial funded versus unfunded and defined benefit versus defined contribution systems recent pension reforms are discussed in terms of these dimensions shifting to a more actuarial system reduces labor market distortions although limiting the scope for redistribution shifting to a funded system may increase saving redistribute income to future generations and distort contermporary labor supply a partial shift to a funded system helps individuals diversify their pension assets a shift from a defined benefit to a defined contribution system means that income risk will be shifted from workers to pensioners

a note on almost stochastic dominance abstract both the expected utility maximization and the hierarchy property are very important properties in stochastic dominance for almost stochastic dominance leshno and levy 2002 propose a definition and tzeng et al 2013 modified it to give another definition this note provides more information on the two definitions the former has the hierarchy property but not the expected utility maximization whereas the latter has the expected utility maximization but not the hierarchy property

marginal conditional stochastic dominance this paper introduces the concept of marginal conditional stochastic dominance mcsd which states the conditions under which all risk averse individuals when presented with a given portfolio prefer to increase the share of one risky asset over that of another mcsd rules also answer the question of whether all risk averse individuals include a new asset in their portfolio when assets returns are correlated mcsd criteria are expressed in terms of the probability distributions of the assets and of the underlying portfolio an empirical application of mcsd is provided using stocks traded on the new york stock exchange mcsd rules are used to show that in the long run one cannot assert that the market portfolio is inefficient

a portfolio approach to the optimal funding of pensions abstract fully funded pension systems are advocated for their higher rate of return but this return is typically risky using a simple mean variance model we find that mixed funded unfunded systems are desirable in this setting because they enable risk diversification

optimal defaults and active decisions defaults often have a large influence on consumer decisions we identify an overlooked but practical alternative to defaults requiring individuals to make an explicit choice for themselves we study such active decisions in the context of 401 k saving we find that compelling new hires to make active decisions about 401 k enrollment raises the initial fraction that enroll by 28 percentage points relative to a standard opt in enrollment procedure producing a savings distribution three months after hire that would take 30 months to achieve under standard enrollment we also present a model of 401 k enrollment and derive conditions under which the optimal enrollment regime is automatic enrollment i e default enrollment standard enrollment i e default non enrollment or active decisions i e no default and compulsory choice active decisions are optimal when consumers have a strong propensity to procrastinate and savings preferences are highly heterogeneous financial illiteracy however favors default enrollment over active decision enrollment