the missing link intra country evidence on the relationship between high and uncertain inflation from high inflation countries the notion that high inflation breeds high uncertainty about future inflation is widely accepted this acceptance is based largely on a positive correlation between the mean and variability of inflation across countries 2 this positive relationship is taken as evidence that high inflation creates high uncertainty 3 recently though driffill mizon and ulph 10 have questioned the relevance of this cross country evidence for making inferences about welfare issues within countries they argue that it is the relationship between the time series mean and variance within a country that is important when considering the potential costs of inflation in this paper we examine the within country time series link between the level and uncertainty of inflation for ten countries that experienced a period of very high inflation we use data generated from regression based forecasts of inflation and historical data on actual forecasts our sample does not provide evidence of a general positive link within these countries the ten countries we study are argentina bolivia brazil chile colombia israel mexico peru turkey and uruguay in these countries the average annualized rate of inflation from the quarterly data in our sample was about 54 per year and the average sample standard deviation

price instability and inflation some tests based on rational expectations models abstract we test for a group of fourteen latin american countries the hypothesis that as inflation accelerates it also becomes more volatile our analysis uses time series data a less arbitrary measure of inflation volatility rational expectations models and seemingly unrelated regressions the empirical evidence supports the above hypothesis and strengthens the case against inflationary policies in latin america

rural development in the united states connecting theory practice and possibilities rural development in the united states presents a comprehensive evaluation of the economic environmental and political implications of past rural development and a thorough consideration of the directions in which future development efforts should go the authors have assembled the best of what is being thought and done with regard to rural development in the united states and place it in a broad theoretical historical and geographical context the book provides a summary of the key findings in rural development research of the past twenty years an integration of development theory and practical experience a bridge between the related but often isolated disciplines that inform rural development a catalyst for new thinking in the area of rural development analysis of the key economic sectors in rural areas natural resources the service sector elderly services telecommunications manufacturing tourism and high technology it includes important information about how national and international trends affect rural communities and development strategies and will help guide rural economic development policy in the united states during the 1990s and beyond

income non convergence and rural urban earnings differentials evidence from north carolina considerable attention is currently focussed on the deteriorating social and economic condition of america s rural communities stagnant or worsening poverty rates unemployment rates and real incomes over the past decade along with persistent and widening gaps between the economic performance of rural and urban areas are well documented indicators of the seriousness of this socioeconomic malaise 6 8 18 coming as it has after a period of relative prosperitythe so called rural renaissance of the 1970s the current crisis in rural america has generated a great deal of consternation among policymakers social scientists and other students of rural development current concerns over rural economic decline coincide with the observation by a number of researchers that the spatial dispersion of income measured by the variance of income or earnings per capita across geographic units has increased over the past decade or so this pattern of income non convergence has been observed across countries 1 regions of the u s 3 and states 5 and is distinctly at odds with the theoretical predictions of standard neo classical growth theory a considerable recent literature that accounts for the effects of schooling human capital accumulation learning by doing and endogenous technical change within the context of endogenous growth models seeks to generalize the standard growth model and clarify the conditions under which incomes may be expected to converge or diverge over time 2 14 17 in fact the recent increase in dispersion of income per capita and the widening disparity in the economic performance of rural and urban areas appear to be related phenomena consider figure 1 which plots measures of income dispersion and rural urban income differentials over time for north carolina s 100 counties there it will be observed that the coefficient of variation

assessing the variability of inflation although there has been much argument over the impact of variable inflation rates upon economic performance there has been surprisingly little attempt to define the term variability of inflation carefully or to test proposed hypotheses connecting variability and the level of inflation precise definitions are given in the paper and a model is constructed showing that the level variability hypothesis may be formulated in terms of the presence of heteroscedasticity in a regression model this theoretical model is used to criticize existing studies while an empirical study with australian data illustrates the application of the approach

the composition of rural employment growth in the new economy this article examines changes in the patterns of occupational employment in urban and rural labor markets in seven southern states between 1970 and 1990 a method is developed for assessing whether occupational employment patterns are becoming more differentiated over time the analysis identifies a process of increasing similarity across all occupational groups between 1970 and 1980 in contrast the 1980 90 period is characterized by increasing rural specialization in operator low skill occupations amid increasing similarity in four of nine inclusive occupational categories these results provide partial support for conjectures regarding greater differentiation of tasks performed in rural and urban labor markets

the level and uncertainty of inflation results from oecd forecasts bryce e kanago there is considerable evidence that inflation variability and the level of inflation are positively related across countries evidence of a within county relation is mixed evidence for a significant positive relation comes mostly from studies using some survey measure contrary evidence comes mostly from studies using regression errors our measure of uncertainty is the squared forecast error from organization for economic cooperation and development inflation forecasts most countries do not exhibit a positive and significant relation the greatest number of positive coefficients is for relative uncertainty regressed on contemporaneous inflation jel e310 e370 1342 1340 1323 i introduction although empirical studies have not reached a unanimous conclusion most economists believe one detriment of high inflation is the greater uncertainty it generates about future inflation affirmative evidence of a positive relation between inflation and uncertainty is most frequently found in cross country studies that regress some measure of variability or uncertainty for each country on their average inflation rate time series regressions for individual countries provide mixed results those time series studies that derive inflation uncertainty from a survey of forecasters conclude that higher inflation causes greater uncertainty time series studies that derive uncertainty from ex post regressions constructed by researchers provide most of the negative evidence 1 it is tempting to dismiss this negative evidence as the consequence of poorly or opportunistically constructed ex post forecasts in this paper we use annual inflation forecasts for organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries that have been published in the oecd s economic outlook for about 30 years these data circumvent the problems of constructing forecasts after the fact for each date and each country a single forecast is provided by contrast survey data such as the livingston data average the forecasts of a number of respondents to the extent that the survey sample is representative of the population the surveys may provide a better approximation to the public s expectations however survey respondents have nothing to lose if their forecasts are wildly inaccurate whereas professional forecasters put their reputation on the line a distinct advantage of the published forecasts is that the oecd provides forecasts for 24 countries whereas surveys are available for only a few countries of course ex post forecasts could be constructed for the same set of countries while these ex post forecasts could utilize modern econometrics techniques such as autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity arch and time varying parameters they cannot replicate the specialized human capital the judgment or the particular perspective of the times that were used to construct ex ante forecasts davis and kanago 1998 regressed the squared error from ex ante inflation forecasts produced and published by business international on inflation and found no significant relation for most countries this result makes it less tempting to dismiss the time series evidence of ex post inflation forecasts we extend the results of davis and kanago 1998 by computing the same regression but using squared errors from ex ante forecasts made by the oecd and published in economic outlook the 24 countries in the oecd data include canada iceland luxembourg new zealand the united states and turkey that are not included in the business international data for some countries the oecd data includes a few more years than the business international data the results from the oecd and business international data are broadly similar few countries show a significant relation between inflation and uncertainty we further test the robustness of these results by using relative uncertainty as the dependent variable

the effects of housing prices wages and commuting time on joint residential and job location choices an empiricalmodelof joint decisions of where to l and where to work demonstrates that individuals make residential and job location choices by trading off wages housing prices and commuting costs wages are higher in metropolitan markets but housing prices are also higher in urban areas consumers can live in lower priced nonmetropolitan houses and still earn urban wages but they incur commuting costs that increase with distance from the city improvements in transportation that lower commuting time will increase nonmetropolitan populations and will increase the number of nonmetropolitan commuters to metropolitan markets equal wage growth across labor markets causes a shift in relative population from rural to urban markets while an equiproportional increase in housing prices causes a population shift toward rural areas

the relationship between the rate of inflation and its unpredictability in high inflation latin american countries pourgerami and maskus pm 1987 find three difficulties in our analysis of the relationship between the rate of inflation p and its unpredictability pf in latin american countries the first of these is a point very well taken namely that the positive relationship we hypothesized might well be offset by a negative one arising because higher rates of inflation could be expected to induce the relevant economic agents to invest more in generating the relevant information in utilizing it efficiently and in developing the instruments capable of hedging against inflation however since any such adjustments would be institutional in nature and take time to be carried out it is obvious that this consideratipn would not be relevant for short run analysis involving year to year or especially quarter to quarter changes in inflation rates as in our analysis the other difficulties namely that quarterly observations are more relevant than annual ones in testing such relationships and that rational expectations re models of the type employed by pm are preferable to adaptive expectations models of the type we used are criticisms more relevant to the short run relation between inflation and its predictability but as we shall presently demonstrate are not persuasive nevertheless since the results presented by pm as they have noted show the relationship between pi and p to be considerably weaker than was indicated in earlier results including our own the substantial difference in results deserves explanation since their time coverage frequent of adjustment of expectations model of esprct ltions and to some extent countr coverage were all different than ours it is not possible to learn from their results the reason for the difference by employing the same time and country coverage as in pm and also an estimation procedure hildreth lu which corrects for autocorrelation and continuing to use a modified version of our adaptive expectations model mae but varying the duration of the periods the results presented in table 1 shed light on the source of the difference as can be seen the use of quarterly instead of annual data does not have a large effect on the results thereby suggesting that pm s use of quarterly data is not the source of their weaker results indeed note that in six of the seven high inflation countries the slope coefficient is larger and more significant when quarterly data are employed than when annual data are employed the largest differences are between the results obtained from our own mae model estimated with quarterly data and those obtained by pm with their re model with the same data in all seven cases the pm estimate of is significantly lower than our own corresponding estimate which estimate is more reliable even if one were to agree in principle with pm that re models are superior to ae models of price expectations the particular re model employed by pm can hardly be considered acceptable let alone superior to our mae model with their 20 right hand side variables i e four lags of each of five different explanatory variables relative to our four right hand side variables it is not surprising that pm havq been able to increase the explained variation of p correspondingly reduc

work location residence location and the intraurban wage gradient abstract the monocentric city model implies that work and residence locations are likely to be positively correlated and that wages decline with distance from the city center the first implication has not been explicitly tested before we provide strong support for it in census data for cleveland columbus dayton detroit indianapolis philadelphia and pittsburgh previous wage gradient estimates were hindered by lack of individual data on employment location and worker characteristics we solve this problem by estimating probit models that predict optimal work location and using the results to explain wages we find evidence of significant wage gradients

avoiding uncertainty in hofstede and globe this paper compares the uncertainty avoidance ua dimension of national culture across the hofstede and globe models looking at relationships in both data and analysis rather than mutual support we detail major differences and anomalies across the studies we show how these anomalies are resulting in contradictory explanations in research on national differences across a range of individual firm and country level phenomena we clarify the ua measurement in both hofstede and globe and find that the two models are measuring different components of the ua construct we propose a two component model of ua namely ua stress and ua rule orientation and confirm its validity with national culture data from the hofstede and globe studies and economic data from the world bank we also explain the negative globe ua practices values relationship using motivational theories a way forward in future ua related research is suggested the hofstede ua index the globe ua practices scores and the globe ua values scores should be used within the specific domains that they represent that is stress rule orientation practices and rule orientation aspirations respectively resolving the contradictions in ua between and within hofstede and globe will help cross cultural researchers develop more robust theories and more practical recommendations for international business management

values and marginal preferences in international business in a recent paper in this journal maseland and van hoorn argued that values surveys tend to conflate values and marginal preferences this assertion has been challenged by brewer and venaik who claim that the wording of most survey items does not suggest that these elicit marginal preferences this commentary responds to their claim and restates our original argument we stress that the distinction between values and marginal preferences is a conceptual rather than a semantic issue conflation of the two is a problem of stated preferences methods in general regardless of question formats what is more we argue that support for the marginal preferences interpretation of values survey data does not come from the specific wording of questions used in surveys but from a growing number of paradoxical relations between values ratings and outcomes in values research implications are twofold first we argue that in order to measure values we need to look at alternatives to the stated preferences approach such as revealed preferences and experienced preferences of which the latter seems most promising second we find that values surveys eliciting marginal preferences are useful for understanding and predicting differences in behavior in a given context

seigniorage and political instability the importance of seigniorage relative to other sources of government revenue differs markedly across countries this paper tries to explain this regularity by studying a political model of tax reform the model implies that countries with a more unstable and polarized political system will have more inefficient tax structures and thus will rely more heavily on seigniorage this prediction of the model is tested on cross sectional data for seventy countries the authors find that after controlling for other variables political instability is positively associated with seigniorage copyright 1992 by american economic association

inflation and its unpredictability theory and empirical evidence the effect of inflation on its unpredictability is theoretically ambiguous arthur m okun 1971 and milton friedman 1977 suggest that the effect is positive however a negative effect may exist if higher inflation induces the relevant economic agents to invest more in generating accurate predictions this paper provides a theoretical model to analyze these opposing arguments and specifies the conditions under which a positive effect exists new survey data regarding inflationary expectations in israel are used to empirically examine the model the data which allow single hypothesis testing of the relationship reveal a positive effect only in periods of high inflation indicating a possible threshold effect copyright 1993 by ohio state university press

national culture and expatriate deployment we hypothesize that expatriate deployment is a control function predicted by home country culture dimensions with transaction cost and agency repercussions rather than culture in the aggregate this departure from the traditional conceptualization and measurement of cultural impact also yields a hypothesized asymmetrical effect which is tested for a multi country sample of 236 multinational subsidiaries using multiple measures of national culture hypotheses are supported with assertiveness and power distance confirmed as prime predictors of expatriate deployment

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

new estimates of quality of life in urban areas implicit markets capture compensation for intraurban and interregional differe nces in amenities and yield differences in housing prices and wages these pecuniary differences become preference based weights in a qual ity of life index hedonic equations are estimated using microdata fr om the 1980 census and assembled county based amenity data on climati c environmental and urban conditions ranking of 253 urban counties reveals substantial variation within as well as among the 185 urba n areas the quality of life differences across counties within one s msa is almost one half of the difference between the top and bottom ranked counties in the nation copyright 1988 by american economic association

eoq and inflation uncertainty abstract inflation uncertainty is introduced into a basic eoq model and its potential to make mischief is explored among other things it is shown that even when the expected rate of inflation is less than the marginal cost of capital the appropriate discount rate to use in computing a discounted expected total inventory cost will not necessarily be negative therefore the classic eoq square root formula may drastically underestimate the optimal lot size the results may be generalized to the more complex inventory models

the determinants of contract length an empirical analysis based on canadian micro data abstract recent theoretical work on the determinants of wage contract length focuses on inflation uncertainty as an explanatory variable additional to the more traditional variable of transactions costs this paper analyses the empirical determinants of contract duration using a large sample of contract data and confirms the conclusions reached in the theoretical literature

an extension of the monocentric urban spatial equilibrium model to a multicenter setting the case of the two center city abstract firms in a monocentric city conforming in substance to the new urban economics produce an export commodity under agglomeration economies and employ homogeneous labor and capital workers reside about the cbd in decreasing densities with distance a developer establishes a second export production center within the city s residential area conditions for economic viability and growth of the subcenter are examined and its impacts on short run and long run city location patterns are discussed a limiting condition on subcenter employment size is provided

explaining the negative correlation between values and practices a note on the hofstede globe debate this note provides an explanation for the presumably counterintuitive negative correlations between values and practices reported by the global leadership and organizational behavior effectiveness project we argue that such results are compatible with basic microeconomic insights concerning diminishing marginal utility this explanation implies that values surveys as they are generally elicit marginal preferences rather than underlying values therefore they are a problematic instrument for the measurement of cultures and need to be improved so as to discriminate between the importance attached to an objective in general and that attached to it given current levels of satiation

price instability and inflation the latin american case abstract this paper provides empirical evidence substantiating the existence of an over time relationship between inflation and price variability for 23 latin american countries by employing a novel measure of price instability based on price expectations

estimates of the variance of u s inflation based upon the arch model it is generally agreed that the unpredictability of future inflation is a major component of the welfare loss associated with inflation perfectly predicted inflation might induce some costs through institutional rigidities governmental interference and transaction costs but in the long run these should be rather minimal as these institutions adopt various forms of indexing when inflation is unpredictable risk averse economic agents will incur a loss even if prices and quantities are perfectly flexible in all markets inflation is a measure of the relative price of goods today and goods tomorrow thus uncertainty in tomorrow s price impairs the efficiency of today s allocation decisions friedman in his nobel lecture 8 argues convincingly that higher variability of inflation would lead to decreased output ceteris paribus he then conjectures that higher rates of inflation are generally associated with higher variability of inflation and presumably greater uncertainty about future rates if this is true then higher rates of inflation would also be associated with low levels of output which implies a positively sloped phillips curve this paper uses a new statistical technique arch to estimate the conditional mean and variance of inflation from u s time series data the main finding is that the variance of inflation in the seventies was only slightly greater than in the sixties

the probability of receiving benefits at different hours of work this study finds that in probit equations 50 of people working 35 hours per week in the us will not be offered benefits or health insurance through their employers to replace services received while on welfare women with an average of 39 hours of work per week have an average 76 probability of being offered medical benefits as one of three example options while men working an average of 43 hours per week have on average a 72 probability of being offered medical benefits the probability of being offered medical insurance life insurance and retirement benefits is slightly over 20 for working 35 hours per week although women have a slightly higher probability of being offered all the benefits individuals with children have a lower probability of being offered all the benefits which is not significant for medical insurance retirement or flexible work schedules individuals working for large firms have a greater probability of being offered benefits excluding flexible scheduling and profit sharing working longer hours increases the probability of receiving benefits except in training situations higher wages are found in the three stage least squares estimation in reduced form equation to be related to more work experience higher aptitude test scores residence in a standard metropolitan statistical area work at larger firms more work hours per week and not being single data are obtained from the 1991 us national longitudinal survey of labor market experience of youth among 1988 persons 26 34 years old who worked and were paid an hourly wage persons in the sample earned an average of 9 00 per hour and worked slightly more than 41 hours per week 33 were black 20 hispanic and slightly under 50 were female about 60 had a child under 6 years old the average firm size was 5205 employees

the effects of inflation on the predictability of price changes in latin america some estimates and policy implications abstract this paper argues that the relationship between price variability and inflation in high inflation countries should be estimated on a frequent basis and that rational expectations are the appropriate formulation for predicting inflation analysis of seven latin american countries taking these factors into account suggests that higher inflation contributes to the difficulty of predicting price changes the impact is more moderate than that found in previous studies however indicating that less concern may be warranted about the possible stagflationary effects of expansionary policies

inflation and uncertainty tests for temporal ordering for the postwar united states increases in the rate of inflation tend to precede increases in the level of inflation uncertainty the finding suggests that higher inflation uncertainty is part of the welfare cost of inflation possible explanations are 1 a high rate of inflation increases uncertainty about future monetary policy and 2 there is uncertainty about the persistence of inflation copyright 1995 by ohio state university press