public research and industrial innovations in germany this paper deals with the effects of publicly funded research at universities polytechnics and federal research labs on industrial innovations in germany we discuss the characteristics of companies that benefit from the findings of public research institutions in questioning 2 300 companies we found that less than one tenth of product or process innovating firms introduced innovations between 1993 and 1995 that would not have been developed without public research these new products amount to approximately 5 percent of all new product sales regressions show that firms own r d support the ability to absorb the findings of public research and turn them into innovations contrary to the widely held opinion that proximity to public research institutions does promote collaboration between firms and public research and increase the amount of received knowledge spillovers we found no higher probability of publicly supported innovations for firms in germany that are located near universities or polytechnics

public subsidies and the employment growth of high tech start ups assessing the impact of selective and automatic support schemes the aim of this article is to assess the impact of public subsidies on the employment growth of new technology based firms ntbfs contingent on i the type of policy scheme either selective or automatic and ii the age of the firms at the time of receipt of the subsidy for this purpose we analyze a sample composed of 536 italian independent ntbfs observed during a 10 year period 1994 2003 we estimate augmented gibrat law type dynamic panel data models using different techniques aimed at controlling for the potentially endogenous nature of public financing namely the generalized method of moments system fixed effect instrumental variable and inverse probability treatment weights estimators the results of the estimates show that selective support schemes had a larger impact on employment growth than automatic ones but only if they were awarded in the very early period of the recipient firms lives however selective subsidies awarded to young ntbfs are rare in italy calling into question the capability of the italian industrial policy to sustain the growth of the high tech entrepreneurial sector

empirical evidence on inflation expectations in the new keynesian phillips curve abstract we review the main identification strategies and empirical evidence on the role of expectations in the new keynesian phillips curve paying particular attention to the issue of weak identi

financial market variables do not predict real activity further evidence christian e weber previous studies argue that financial variables do not help forecast u s output growth f statistics for excluding financial variables from output growth equations depend on the sample period and the inclusion of 1974 12 in the sample also an autoregressive model of output growth often provides better forecasts than models with lagged financial variables included i decompose output into permanent and cyclical components and ask whether financial variables help forecast either component in isolation the paper bill spread does improve in sample forecasts of cyclical output but no financial variable helps forecast either cyclical output or permanent output growth out of sample jel e52 c22 c53 i introduction the last decade has witnessed a dramatic increase in efforts to determine the link between monetary aggregates and interest rate variables and real economic activity although friedman and schwartz 1963 and sims 1972 argued that movements in monetary aggregates have historically been followed by movements in output in the same direction it was only in the mid 1980s that empirical research on the link between financial variables and real economic activity accelerated beginning with sims 1980 one of the key stylized facts that emerged from this research is that although monetary aggregates appear not to help forecast output various interest rate variables do hafer and kutan 1997 and thoma and gray 1998 summarize recent work in this area recently however thoma and gray 1998 henceforth t g have questioned this stylized fact using rolling regressions they show that f statistics for excluding lags of m2 or the paper bill spread or the federal funds rate from an autoregressive ar model of growth in industrial production are frequently insignificant for sample periods truncated prior to the mid 1970s also excluding december 1974 from longer samples generally renders lags of these financial variables jointly insignificant and eliminates the apparent superiority of the spread as a forecaster of output growth finally for most sample periods a simple ar model of growth in industrial production outperforms vector autoregressive var models which include m2 growth the spread or the fed funds rate in the sense that the ar model generally yields lower root mean squared forecast errors than the var models as t g note their findings imply that financial variables do not help forecast output growth either monetary policy is neutral or e conomists have yet to identify the variable s whose fluctuations represent changes in monetary policy like most other researchers t g specify their empirical models in first differences of all integrated unit root series while this approach is standard i have argued in weber 1999 that separate empirical models for the stationary component of output in levels and the first difference of the permanent component of output provide more and better information than a single model of observed output growth first tests for excluding financial variables from output growth equations are in fact tests for excluding these variables from models for growth in the permanent component of output they have nothing to do with the cyclical influence of financial variables second due to two sets of possibly invalid restrictions that they place on the separate processes for permanent and temporary output tests for excluding financial variables from traditional money output autoregressions are based on potentially biased estimators the appendix provides a formal statement and proof of these assertions based on a propo sition in weber 1999 thus recent evidence that money growth does not help forecast output growth may reflect biased estimates of the distributed lag coefficients rather than an actual failure of money growth to help forecast output growth these observations argue strongly for causality tests based directly on separate autoregressive distributed lag ardl models for permanent output growth and the cyclical component of output

the non linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the u s this paper studies the joint dynamics of u s output and unemployment rate in a nonlinear var model the nonlinearity is introduced through a feedback variable that endogenously augments the output lags of the var in recessionary phases sufficient conditions for the ergodicity of the model potentially applying to a larger class of threshold models are provided the linear specification is severely rejected in favor of our threshold var however in the estimation the feedback is found to be statistically significant only on unemployment while it transmits to output through its cross correlation this feedback effect from recessions generates important asymmetries in the propagation of shocks a possible key to interpret the divergence in the measures of persistence existing in the literature the regime dependent persistence also explains the finding that the feedback from recession exerts a positive effect on the long run growth rate of the economy an empirical validation for the schumpeterian macroeconomic theories

the robustness of equilibria to incomplete information a number of papers have shown that a strict nash equilibrium action profile of a game may never be played if there is a small amount of incomplete information see for example carlsson and van damme 1993a we present a general approach to analyzing the robustness of equilibria to a small amount of incomplete information a nash equilibrium of a complete information game is said to be robust to incomplete information if every incomplete information game with payoffs almost always given by the complete information game has an equilibrium which generates behavior close to the nash equilibrium we show that many games with strict equilibria have no robust equilibrium and examine why we get such different results from existing refinements if a game has a unique correlated equilibrium it is robust a natural many player many action generalization of risk dominance is a sufficient condition for robustness

monetary shocks in models with observation and menu costs we study economies where price stickiness arises due to the simultaneous presence of both menu and information costs we identify the relative importance of these costs using firm s survey data and analyze the response of prices and output following a permanent unexpected monetary shock for a given frequency of price adjustment we find that the information friction significantly amplifies the real effect of the shock when the shock is small or when it is not known by firms instead when the shock is large and known to firms the flexibility of prices increases and the real effects gradually vanish

living in an imaginary world that looks real abstract in the paper we show using standard approaches general equilibrium modeling and the assumption of complete rationality that the macroeconomic environment is endogenous and is indeterminate specifically it is argued without resorting to sunspot type arguments that microeconomic fundamentals do not suffice to characterize the economy at the macro level in particular we show how perceptions of rational agents of the workings of the economy a shape the environment b affect the environment sufficiently to ensure that rational economic agents find the observed environment consistent with their beliefs even though it is not as a by product we illustrate that endogenous macro uncertainty can arise as an outcome if rational economic agents whose expectations are anchored on endogenous variables expect them to arise finally we show that systematic errors can persist indefinitely under rationality

are output fluctuations transitory according to the conventional view of the business cycle fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend the purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view if fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output then an unexpected change in output today should not substantially change one s forecast of output in say five or ten years our examination of quarterly postwar united states data leads us to be skeptical about this implication the data suggest that an unexpected change in real gnp of 1 percent should change one s forecast by over 1 percent over a long horizon

central bank communication design in a lucas phelps economy abstract in a lucas phelps island economy an island has access to many informative signals about demand conditions each signal incorporates both public and private information the correlation of a signal s realizations across the economy determines its publicity if information sources differ in their publicity then price formation and expectations formation processes separate causing output gaps to open an output stabilizing central bank prefers averagely public information and sometimes limits the clarity of its policy announcements to achieve this the bank s incentive to engage privately in costly information acquisition and transmission is strongest not for the most influential signals but instead for those which drive the largest wedge between prices and expectations signals that are far from averagely public

efficient use of information and social value of information this paper analyzes equilibrium and welfare for a tractable class of economies games that have externalities strategic complementarity or substitutability and heterogeneous information first we characterize the equilibrium use of information complementarity heightens the sensitivity of equilibrium actions to public information raising aggregate volatility whereas substitutability heightens the sensitivity to private information raising cross sectional dispersion next we define and characterize an efficiency benchmark designed to address whether the equilibrium use of information is optimal from a social perspective the efficient use of information reflects the social value of aligning choices across agents finally we examine the comparative statics of equilibrium welfare with respect to the information structure the social value of information is best understood by classifying economies according to the inefficiency if any in the equilibrium use of information we conclude with a few applications including production externalities beauty contests business cycles and large cournot and bertrand games

the effect of government funding on private industrial research and development a re assessment a number of previous studies have attempted to determine the effect of federal support of research and development r d performed in industry on the rate of private investment in r d by estimating regressions of private r d expenditure on federal industrial r d expenditure controlling for total demand sales and in some cases other variables this paper presents arguments and econometric evidence in support of the hypothesis that due to misspecification of the private r d equation i e failure to distinguish government sales from other sales previous estimates of the effect of federal industrial r d on private r d funding are seriously upwardly biased

r d subsidies external collaborative breadth differential gains and the role of collaboration experience abstract external collaboration breadth is important for firms to acquire the knowledge needed to innovate in this paper we combine cross sectional and longitudinal data from the spanish panel of technological innovation survey pitec to examine the indirect impact of r d subsidies on firm external collaboration breadth we contribute to understanding of the indirect impacts of r d subsidies by first providing strong evidence of an economically significant average positive impact of r d subsidies on firm external collaboration breadth second our results advance understanding of the differential impacts of r d subsidies by revealing the vast heterogeneity of the impact at the firm level where approximately only half of treated firms experience a positive collaboration impact from r d subsidies while the remainder experience no impact or a negative effect finally we advance understanding of the characteristics explaining the differential impact of r d subsidies on external collaboration breadth by utilising the organisational learning literature to demonstrate the important role of firm collaboration experience

revisiting the uncertain unit root in gdp and cpi testing for non linear trend reversion we test for the presence of a unit root in u s gdp and cpi allowing for non linear trend reversion under the alternative hypothesis in contrast to most previous results we find evidence in favour of trend stationarity for both variables

noisy information distance and law of one price dynamics across us cities abstract us micro price data at the city level suggests that both the volatility and the persistence of law of one price deviations are rising in the distance between us cities a standard two city equilibrium model with trade costs can predict the relationship between volatility and distance but not between persistence and distance we show that if there is imperfect information about the state of nominal aggregate demand with noisy signals that are asymmetric across cities then distance and persistence will be positively correlated our main results are shown to be robust to the introduction of sticky prices and multiple cities

dynamic coordination and the optimal stimulus policies this article studies stimulus policies in a simple macroeconomic model featuring a dynamic coordination problem that arises from demand externalities and fixed costs of investment in times of low economic activity firms face low demand and hence have lower incentives for investing which reinforces their low demand expectations in a benchmark case with no shocks the economy might get trapped in a low output regime and a social planner would be particularly keen to incentivise investment at times of low economic activity however this result vanishes once shocks are considered

optimal sticky prices under rational inattention this paper presents a model in which price setting firms decide what to pay attention to subject to a constraint on information flow when idiosyncratic conditions are more variable or more important than aggregate conditions firms pay more attention to idiosyncratic conditions than to aggregate conditions when we calibrate the model to match the large average absolute size of price changes observed in micro data prices react fast and by large amounts to idiosyncratic shocks but only slowly and by small amounts to nominal shocks nominal shocks have strong and persistent real effects we use the model to investigate how the optimal allocation of attention and the dynamics of prices depend on the firms environment jel e 3 e5 d8

endogenous information acquisition in coordination games in the context of a beauty contest coordination game in which payoffs 1 depend on the quadratic distance of actions from an unobserved state variable and 2 from the average action players choose how much costly attention to pay to vari 3 ous informative signals each signal has an underlying accuracy how precisely it 4 identifies the state and a clarity how easy it is to understand the unique linear 5 equilibrium has interesting properties the signals which receive attention are the 6 clearest available even if they have poor underlying accuracy the number of sig 7 nals observed falls as the complementarity of players actions rises and if actions 8 are more complementary the information endogenously acquired in equilibrium 9 is more public in nature the consequences of rational inattention constraints on 10

var estimation and forecasting when data are subject to revision we show that howrey s method for producing economic forecasts when data are subject to revision is easily generalized to handle the case where data are produced by a sophisticated statistical agency the proposed approach assumes that government estimates are efficient with a finite lag it takes no stand on whether earlier revisions are the result of news or of reductions in noise we present asymptotic performance results in the scalar case and illustrate the technique using several simple models of economic activity in each case it outperforms both conventional var analysis and the original howrey method it produces gdp forecasts that are competitive with those of professional forecasters special cases and extensions of the analysis are discussed in a series of appendices that are available online

innovation and communication signalling with partial disclosure this paper introduces a model of feedback effect equilibrium i e equilibria in which an asymmetrically informed agent is motivated to communicate its privately known attribute but can do so only through channels or signals which convey directly useful information to competing agents this revelation to the competition serves to reduce the value of the private information held by the first agent models of this kind are of obvious relevance to realistic theories of product or financial market disclosure policies of firms patenting and a host of related behavioural and regulatory issues this model is developed in the context of a set of firms engaged in research and development rivalry in which the value of privately held and disclosed information arises from its implications for the likelihood and timing of productive innovation

a comparison of autoregressive univariate forecasting procedures for macroeconomic time series the actual performance of several automated univariate autoregressive forecasting procedures applied to 150 macroeconomic time series are compared the procedures are the random walk model as a basis for comparison long autoregressions with three alternative rules for lag length selection and a long autoregression estimated by minimizing the sum of absolute deviations the sensitivity of each procedure to preliminary transformations data periodicity forecast horizon loss function employed in parameter estimation and seasonal adjustment procedures is examined the more important conclusions are that akaike s lag length selection criterion works well in a wide variety of situations the modeling of long memory components becomes important for forecast horizons of three or more periods and linear combinations of forecasts do not improve forecast quality appreciably

managing expectations instruments vs targets should policymakers offer forward guidance in terms of a path for an instrument such as interest rates or a target for an outcome such as unemployment we study how the optimal approach depends on a departure from rational expectations people have a limited understanding of the behavior of others and of the general equilibrium ge effects of policy the bite of such bounded rationality on implementability and welfare is minimized by target based guidance if and only if ge feedbacks are strong enough this offers a rationale for why central banks should shine the spotlight on unemployment when faced with a prolonged liquidity trap a steep keynesian cross or a large financial accelerator

a dynamic auction for multi object procurement under a hard budget constraint this contribution revisits the problem of allocating r d subsidies by government agencies typically the applicants financial constraints are private information the literature has recommended the use of auctions in order to reduce information rents and thus improve the efficiency of how scarce public funds are allocated we propose a new open clock auction for this procurement problem this auction is strategically simple as it exhibits truthtelling in dominant strategies and satisfies ex post rationality while observing the budget constraint we test the auction in monte carlo simulation and discuss its applicability and limitations moreover we highlight connections to recent advances in computer science

does real u k gdp have a unit root evidence from a multi century perspective we employ linear and nonlinear unit root tests to examine the stationarity of five multi century historical u k series of real output compiled by the bank of england three series span 1270 to 201

entrepreneurial moral hazard and bank monitoring a model of the credit channel abstract this paper develops a model of the choice between bank and market finance by entrepreneurial firms that differ in the value of their net worth the monitoring associated with bank finance ameliorates a moral hazard problem between the entrepreneurs and their lenders the model is used to analyze the different strands of the credit view of the transmission of monetary policy in particular we derive the empirical implications of a broad credit channel and compare them to those obtained when the model is extended to incorporate some elements of the bank lending channel

sticky prices fair wages and the co movements of unemployment and labor productivity growth abstract this paper studies the co movements of unemployment and labor productivity growth for the u s economy measures of co movements in the frequency domain indicate that co movements between variables differ strongly according to the frequency first long term and business cycle co movements are larger than short term co movements second co movements are negative in the short and long run but positive over the business cycle a new keynesian model that combines nominal rigidity on the goods market sticky prices and real rigidity on the labor market fair wages is shown to be quantitatively consistent with the observed co movements both in the long term and over the business cycle however the model fails to explain the short term co movements

policy with dispersed information information regarding economic fundamentals is widely dispersed in society is only imperfectly aggregated through prices or other indicators of aggregate activity and cannot be centralized by the government or any other institution in this paper we seek to identify policies that can improve the decentralized use of such dispersed information without requiring the government to observe this information we show that this can be achieved by appropriately designing the contingency of taxation on ex post public information regarding the realized fundamentals and aggregate activity when information is common as in the ramsey literature or when agents have private information only about idiosyncratic shocks as in the mirrlees literature the contingency on fundamentals alone suffices for efficiency when instead agents have private information about aggregate shocks the contingency on aggregate activity is crucial an appropriate combination of the two contingencies permits the government to i dampen the impact of noise and hence reduce non fundamental volatility without also dampening the impact of fundamentals ii induce agents to internalize informational externalities and hence improve the speed of social learning iii restore a certain form of constrained efficiency in the decentralized use of information and iv guarantee that welfare increases with the provision of any additional information jel c72 d62 d82

spectral and persistence properties of cyclical growth abstract this article investigates the cyclical properties of an endogenous growth model an explicit solution is derived which permits the full characterization of the cyclical as well as the long run properties of the model using spectral autocorrelation and impulse response functions we show that introducing endogenous growth overcomes some of the main shortcomings of rbc models in particular the model can generate positive autocorrelation of output growth when endogenous growth dominates the dynamics moreover the model exhibits the hump shaped pattern of impulse response functions of the trend reverting component of output

persistence seasonality and trend in the uk egg production this paper discusses the time series properties of uk egg production in order to provide an empirical analysis of the possible long run impact of the shock on the industry following the recent incidence of salmonella poisoning our analysis shows that although the short run properties of the uk egg production are consistent with the presence of persistent shocks a shock duration is unlikely to have large long run efefcts this result is remarkably robust to the choice of the persistence measure obtained

the relationship between federal contract r d and company r d according to recent estimates federal budget outlays for research and development rd this component will rise 28 percent and absorb 70 percent of all federal r d spending in 1984 compared to under 50 percent in 1980 since work corresponding to about one half of the dollar value of the federal r d program is generally performed by private industrial firms under contract with federal agencies the rapid increase in federal r d outlays will presumably be reflected in a similar increase in the value of commitments by industrial firms to perform government r d one of the most important economic questions posed by the large prospective increase in resources allocated to federal contract r d concerns its consequences for the economy s rate of technical progress of productivity growth in the next section i argue that the ultimate impact on productivity depends on how company decisions to finance r d are affected by the availability of federal contract r d funds i then provide a brief review and critique of previous studies of the relationship between companyand federalfinanced r d performed in industry and present new estimates which differ from existing ones with respect to both methodology and implications these estimates are consistent with the hypothesis that increases in federal r d activity tend to be associated with significant reductions in companyfinanced r d a number of studies have attempted to determine the ceteris paribus effects of company and federal r d on the rate of productivity growth p by estimating variants of the equation

permanent and transitory components in macroeconomic fluctuations fluctuations in real gnp have traditionally been viewed as transitory deviations from a deterministic time trend the purpose of this paper is to review some of the recent developments that have led to a new view of output fluctuations and then to provide some additional evidence using post war quarterly data it is hard to reject the view that real gnp is as persistent as a random walk with drift we also consider the hypothesis that the recent finding of persistence are due to the failure to distinguish the business cycle from other fluctuations in real gnp we use the measured unemployment rate to decompose output fluctuations we find no evidence for the view that business cycle fluctuations are more quickly trend reverting this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the seasonal cycle and the business cycle almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally adjusted or annual data this paper takes a different approach by treating seasonal fluctuations as worthy of study in their own right our results show that seasonal fluctuations are an important source of variation in all macroeconomic quantity variables but are small or entirely absent in both real and nominal price variables the timing of the seasonal fluctuations consists of increases in the second and fourth quarters a large decrease in the first quarter and a mild decrease in the third quarter the paper demonstrates that with respect to each of several major stylized facts about business cycles the seasonal cycle displays the same characteristics as the business cycle in some cases even more dramatically than the business cycle that is we find that at seasonal frequencies as well as at business cycle frequencies output movements across broadly defined sectors move together the timing of production and the

does gnp have a unit root a re evaluation abstract stock and watson 1986 test the hypothesis that real per capita gnp has a unit root by using a test statistic due to phillips 1985 which incorporates a non parametric correction for the serial correlation induced by system and error dynamics the version of this test that is used by stock and watson does not accomodate the presence of a drift and to compensate they detrend the series by extracting a 1 5 annual trend growth we use a version of this class of non parametric tests developed by phillips and perron 1986 which allows for an estimated drift and reassess the stock and watson findings

optimal price setting with observation and menu costs we study the price setting problem of a firm in the presence of both observation and menu costs in this problem the firm optimally decides when to collect costly information on the adequacy of its price an activity which we refer to as a price review upon each review the firm chooses whether to adjust its price subject to a menu cost and when to conduct the next price review this behavior is consistent with recent survey evidence documenting that firms revise prices infrequently and that only a few price revisions yield a price adjustment the goal of the paper is to study how the firm s choices map into several observable statistics depending on the level and relative magnitude of the observation vs the menu cost the observable statistics are the frequency of price reviews the frequency of price adjustments the size distribution of price adjustments and the shape of the hazard rate of price adjustments we provide an analytical characterization of the firm s decisions and a mapping from the structural parameters to the observable statistics we compare these statistics with the ones obtained for the models with only one type of cost the predictions of the model can with suitable data be used to quantify the importance of the menu cost vs the information cost we also consider a version of the model where several price adjustment are allowed between observations a form of price plans or indexation we find that no indexation is optimal for small inflation rates

monetary policy and the information content of prices rational expectations and cleared markets lead to the proposition that feedback monetary policy is irrelevant to real activity as in the analyses of sargent and wallace however if agents are differentially informed and have access to a common price then prospective monetary policy actions future feedback to imperfectly known current circumstances can alter real activity by changing the information content of prices

a model of imperfect competition with keynesian features the recent literature on the reappraisal of keynes has viewed keynesian equilibria as arising when prices are fixed and effective demands and supplies are equilibrated through the adjustment of quantities one problem with this approach is that it lacks a theory of price determination in particular of why prices are fixed in the present paper we show that a number of keynesian features arise in a model in which prices are fully flexible but where agents have some monopoly power one advantage of this approach is that it provides a theory of the determination of both prices and quantities

cyclical output cyclical unemployment and okun s coefficient a new approach estimates of okun s coefficient are obtained using new estimates of cyclical gnp and cyclical unemployment rates for the post war usa empirical estimates of the coefficient are near 0 25 somewhat smaller in magnitude than other recent estimates obtained applying similar econometric techniques to different estimates of cyclical output and unemployment tests fail to reject the hypothesis of parameter stability across an hypothesized break between the third and fourth quarters of 1973 suggesting similar relationships between cyclical output and unemployment both before and after the supply shocks of the 1970s

beauty contests and iterated expectations in asset markets in a financial market where traders are risk averse and short lived and prices are noisy asset prices today depend on the average expectation today of tomorrow s price thus iterating this relationship the date 1 price equals the date 1 average expectation of the date 2 average expectation of the date 3 price this will not in general equal the date 1 average expectation of the date 3 price we show how this failure of the law of iterated expectations for average belief can help understand the role of higher order beliefs in a fully rational asset pricing model and explain over reaction to noisy public information

managing beliefs about monetary policy under discretion in models of monetary policy discretionary policymaking is typically constrained in its ability to manage public beliefs however when a policymaker possesses private information policy actions serve as signals to the public about unobserved economic conditions and belief management becomes an integral part of optimal discretion policies this article derives the optimal time consistent policy for a general linear quadratic setting the optimal policy is illustrated in a simple new keynesian model where analytical solutions can be derived as well in this model imperfect information about the policymaker s output target leads to lower policy losses

portfolio rebalancing and asset pricing with heterogeneous inattention can households inattention to the stock market quantitatively account for the inertia in portfolio rebalancing i address this question by introducing an observation cost into a production economy with heterogeneous agents in this environment inattention changes endogenously over time and across agents i find that inattention explains the inertia in portfolio rebalancing and its heterogeneity across households inattention also rationalizes the limited stock market participation observed in the data and improves the asset pricing performance of the model finally i present a novel testable implication linking the effects of inattention on portfolio choices and asset prices to households funding liquidity

optimal monetary policy with uncertain fundamentals and dispersed information this paper studies optimal monetary policy in a model where aggregate fluctuations are driven by the private sector s uncertainty about the economy s fundamentals information on aggregate productivity is dispersed across agents and there are two aggregate shocks a standard productivity shock and a noise shock affecting public beliefs about aggregate productivity neither the central bank nor individual agents can distinguish the two shocks when they are realized despite the lack of superior information monetary policy can affect the economy s relative response to the two shocks as time passes better information on past fundamentals becomes available the central bank can then adopt a backward looking policy rule based on more precise information about past shocks by announcing its response to future information the central bank can influence the expected real interest rate faced by forward looking consumers with different beliefs and thus affect the equilibrium allocation if the announced future response is sufficiently aggressive the central bank can completely eliminate the effect of noise shocks however this policy is typically suboptimal as it leads to an excessively compressed distribution of relative prices the optimal monetary policy balances the benefits of aggregate stabilization with the costs in terms of cross sectional efficiency copyright wiley blackwell

cost reduction competition and industry performance in many markets firms compete over time by expending resources with the purpose of reducing their costs sometimes the cost reducing investments operate directly on costs in many instances they take the form of developing new products that deliver what customers need more cheaply therefore product development can have the same ultimate effect as direct cost reduction in fact if one thinks of the product as the services it delivers to the customer in the way that lancaster pioneered then product development often is just cost reduction

cooperative and noncooperative r d in duopoly with spillovers contrary to the usual assumption made in most oligopoly models relations among firms are seldom of a wholly cooperative or noncooperative type in many situations they compete in some fields while they cooperate in others an important example is the case of cooperative research efforts bringing fierce competitors together two types of agreement are observed first r d cooperation can take place at the so called precompetitive stage companies share basic information and efforts in the r d stage but remain rivals in the market place 1 a second type of agreement involves an extended collusion between partners creating common policies at the product level the usual justifications of this extension are the difficulties of protecting intellectual property the idea is then to allow partners who have achieved inventions together to also control together the processes and products which embody the results of their collaboration in order to recuperate jointly their r d investments 2 what could be expected from these types of agreement is a reduction in r d expenditures because of less wasteful duplication and a reduction of total production because of more reprinted from the american economic review 78 5 1133 1137 1988 center for operations research econometrics 1348 louvain la neuve belgium we are grateful to jean

can information heterogeneity explain the exchange rate determination puzzle empirical evidence shows that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is related to order flow and not to macroeconomic variables we introduce symmetric information dispersion about future macroeconomic fundamentals in a dynamic rational expectations model in order to explain these stylized facts consistent with the evidence the model implies that a observed fundamentals account for little of exchange rate volatility in the short to medium run b over long horizons the exchange rate is closely related to observed fundamentals c exchange rate changes are a weak predictor of future fundamentals and d the exchange rate is closely related to order flow

man bites dog business cycles the newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it is and this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact signals that are more likely to be observed after unusual events may increase both uncertainty and disagreement among agents in a simple business cycle model such signals can explain why we observe i occasional large changes in macro economic aggregate variables without a correspondingly large change in underlying fundamentals ii persistent periods of high macroeconomic volatility and iii a positive correlation between absolute changes in macro variables and the cross sectional dispersion of survey expectations

is public r d a complement or substitute for private r d a review of the econometric evidence is public r d spending complementary and thus additional to private r d spending or does it substitute for and tend to crowd out private r d conflicting answers are given to this question we survey the body of available econometric evidence accumulated over the past 35 years a framework for analysis of the problem is developed to help organize and summarize the findings of econometric studies based on time series and cross section data from various levels of aggregation laboratory firm industry country the findings overall are ambivalent and the existing literature as a whole is subject to the criticism that the nature of the experiment s that the investigators envisage is not adequately specified we conclude by offering suggestions for improving future empirical research on this issue

the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances we interpret fluctuations in gnp and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not we interpret the first as supply disturbances the second as demand disturbances demand disturbances have a hump shaped mirror image effect on output and unemployment the effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years

output and unemployment dynamics in the united states 1950 1985 for us data over 1950 1985 the stochastic components of gnp growth and the unemployment rate appear to be stationary and there is substantial feedback between these variables the unconditional mean rate of unemployment in a joint model thus provides a natural benchmark in discussions of the business cycle a bivariate var model is used to describe output unemployment dynamics to estimate the degree of persistence of output innovations and to decompose output into trend and cycle the bivariate results are interpreted using a restricted var and it is shown that a closely related cyclical measure can be obtained directly from the okun s law equation

a measure of the u s output gap abstract an autoregressive distributed lag regression of the unemployment rate on output growth is structurally stable over the 1890 1986 period inverting this equation yields a measure of the output gap which is not subject to the spurious detrending problem

incomplete information higher order beliefs and price inertia the question that motivates this paper is how incomplete information impacts the response of prices to nominal shocks our baseline model is a variant of the calvo model in which firms observe the underlying nominal shocks with noise in this model the response of prices is pinned down by three parameters the precision of available information about the nominal shock the frequency of price adjustment and the degree of strategic complementarity in pricing decisions this result synthesizes the broader lessons of the pertinent literature however this synthesis provides only a partial view of the role of incomplete information once one allows for more general information structures than those used in previous work one cannot quantify the degree of price inertia without data on the dynamics of higher order beliefs or of the agents forecasts of inflation we highlight this with three extensions of our baseline model all of which break the tight connection between the precision of information and higher order beliefs featured in previous work

macroeconomic shocks and stock market returns the case of korea abstractthis study examines the effects of macroeconomic shocks on key macro variables including stock market returns in korea using the structural vector autoregression svar model we suggest a three variable svar model incorporating inflation output growth and stock returns we adopt a nonzero z ratio restriction for the long run identifying assumption to allow for economically meaningful relationships among variables while our results support the negative positive relation of demand supply shocks to stock returns we also find that demand shocks influence stock market variance more significantly than supply shocks do the sub period analysis finds that global market fluctuations during the global financial crisis have relatively little effect on korean stock market performance we also examine a generalized five variable model that includes the foreign exchange rate and interest rate confirming the results from the three variable case

real business cycle models and the forecastable movements in output hours and consumption the authors study the movements in output consumption and hours that are forecastable from a vector autoregression and analyze how they differ from those predicted by standard real business cycle models they show that actual forecastable movements in output have a variance about one hundred times larger than those predicted by the model the authors also find that forecastable changes in the three series are strongly positively correlated with each other on the other hand for parameters whose implications are plausible in other respects the model implies that output consumption and hours should not all be expected to move in the same direction copyright 1996 by american economic association

on persistence of shocks to economic variables a common misconception abstract empirical results on u s gnp have provided estimates of the beveridge and nelson s persistence measure almost always greater than unity when using arima models and always smaller than unity when using ucarima models this paper shows that a measure of persistence less than unity is a mathematical consequence of the definition of ucarima models and not an independent estimation result therefore arima and ucarima estimates of persistence cannot be compared on the same ground

inflation at the household level abstract we use scanner data to estimate inflation rates at the household level households inflation rates have an annual interquartile range of 6 2 9 0 percentage points most of the heterogeneity comes not from variation in broadly defined consumption bundles but from variation in prices paid for the same types of goods lower income households experience higher inflation but most cross sectional variation is uncorrelated with observables households deviations from aggregate inflation exhibit only slightly negative serial correlation almost all variability in a household s inflation rate comes from variability in household level prices relative to average prices not from variability in aggregate inflation

is cyclical real gnp really more persistent than the trend using an observed components decomposition to estimate permanent and temporary components of us real gnp campbell and mankiw 1987 found that the estimated temporary component displays greater persistence than the estimated permanent component this suggests that attempts to estimate separate permanent and temporary components in real gnp are unlikely to succeed this finding is re examined here using a longer real gnp series and a different decomposition which guarantees that the estimated temporary component will be stationary the resulting estimates of permanent and temporary output suggests that the temporary component displays no persistence and that the permanent component exhibits almost precisely the persistence of a random walk with drift cyclical real gnp is not more persistent than the trend

a theory of demand shocks this paper presents a model of business cycles driven by shocks to consumer expectations regarding aggregate productivity agents are hit by heterogeneous productivity shocks they observe their own productivity and a noisy public signal regarding aggregate productivity the public signal gives rise to noise shocks which have the features of aggregate demand shocks they increase output employment and inflation in the short run and have no effects in the long run numerical examples suggest that the model can generate sizable equilibrium dsge models of the business cycle include a large number of shocks to technol ogy monetary policy preferences etc but typically do not include expectational shocks as independent drivers of short run fluctuations 1 this paper explores the idea of expectation driven cycles looking at a model where technology determines equilibrium output in the long run and consumers receive noisy signals about technology in the short run the presence of noisy signals produces expectational errors this paper studies the role of these expectational errors in gener ating volatility at business cycle frequencies the model is based on two ingredients first consumers take time to recognize permanent changes in aggregate fundamentals although they may have good information on the current state of the individual firm or sector where they operate they have only limited information regarding the long run determinants of aggregate activity second consumers have access to public information that is relevant to estimate long run productivity this includes news about technological innovations publicly released macroeconomic and sectoral statistics financial market prices and public statements by policy makers however these signals provide only a noisy forecast of the long run effects of technological innovations this opens the door to noise shocks which induce consumers to temporarily overestimate or underestimate the productive capacity of the economy

information animal spirits and the meaning of innovations in consumer confidence we show that unexplained innovations in several variables representing survey responses to forwardlooking questions on the michigan survey of consumers have powerful prognostic implications for the future paths of macroeconomic variables we attempt to distinguish the hypothesis that these impulse responses indicate a causal channel from autonomous movements in sentiment to economic outcomes the animal spirits view from the alternative interpretation that the surprise confidence movements summarize information about future economic prospects the information view in natural rate models animal spirits shocks are associated with overshooting of among other variables consumption that attenuates when agents come to grips with their overreaction while information shocks about the long future are followed by gradual movements in macroeconomic variables that are not subsequently reversed in a baseline vector autoregression involving consumption income and confidence the data come down sharply in favor of the information view the impulse responses of consumption and gdp show no tendency to attenuate even after a number of years further confidence innovations have strong implications for labor productivity many quarters into the future in somewhat larger vars with an information block that includes inflation and or stock prices the impulse responses to confidence innovations continue to have the permanent shape that defines information shocks but they are smaller in magnitude we demonstrate that this is due to the fact that both inflation and stock price innovations have prognostic implications for future productivity that are very similar to the implications of innovations in confidence addition of unemployment to the system induces a transitory component that changes the shape of the impulse responses and somewhat weakens the previously airtight case against animal spirits but it does not provide constructive evidence of such effects

the cyclical component of u s economic activity quarterly data on industrial production and deflated gross national product in the united states from 1947 through 1985 are decomposed into independent nonstationary trend and stationary cycle components using kalman filtering and smoothing techniques estimates of the model parameters imply that at least half of the quarterly innovation in u s economic activity can be attributed to a stationary cyclical component that persists over periods of time as long as five years this finding is inconsistent with the hypothesis that most of the apparent variation in u s economic activity can be attributed to a nonstationary trend component

information forecasts and measurement of the business cycle the beveridge nelson bn technique provides a forecast based method of decomposing a variable such as output into trend and cycle when the variable is integrated of order one i 1 this paper considers the multivariate generalization of the bn decomposition when the information set includes other i 1 and or stationary variables we show how the relative importance of the cyclical component depends on the size of the information set and is necessarily higher with multivariate bn decompositions the results are illustrated using post wwii united states data an explanation is also provided for the empirical finding of a positive association of the multivariate bn cycle with output growth

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

energy and output dynamics in bangladesh the relationship between energy consumption and output is still ambiguous in the existing literature the economy of bangladesh having spectacular output growth and rising energy demand as well as energy efficiency in recent decades can be an ideal case for examining energy output dynamics we find that while fluctuations in energy consumption do not affect output fluctuations movements in output inversely affect movements in energy use the results of granger causality tests in this respect are consistent with those of innovative accounting that includes variance decompositions and impulse responses autoregressive distributed lag models also suggest a role of output in bangladesh s energy use hence the findings of this study have policy implications for other developing nations where measures for energy conservation and efficiency can be relevant in policymaking

government r d subsidies as a signal for private investors abstract government subsidies for r d are intended to promote projects with high returns to society but too little private returns to be beneficial for private investors this may be caused by spillovers or a low appropriability rate apart from the direct funding of these projects government grants may serve as a signal for good investments for private investors we use a simple signaling model with different types of r d projects to capture this phenomenon the agency has a preference for basic research projects as they promise high expected social returns while banks prefer applied research projects with high private returns in a setup where the subsidy can only be used to distinguish between basic and applied research projects government agency s signal is not very helpful for banks however if the subsidy is accompanied by a quality signal it can lead to increased or better selected private investments

international coordination in the design of macroeconomic policy rules abstract the paper examines international issues that arise in the design and evaluation of macroeconomic policy rules it begins with a theoretical investigation of the effects of fiscal and monetary policy in a two country rational expectations model with staggered wage and price setting and with perfect capital mobility the results indicate that with the appropriate choice of policies and with flexible exchange rates demand shocks need not give rise to international externalities or coordination issues price shocks however do create an externality and this is the focus of the empirical part of the paper using a simple seven country model consisting of canada france germany italy japan the united kingdom and the united states optimal cooperative and non cooperative nash policy rules to minimize the variance of output and inflation in each country are calculated the cooperative policies are computed using standard dynamic stochastic programming techniques and the non cooperative policies are computed using an algorithm developed by finn kydland the central result is that the cooperative policy rules for these countries are more accommodative to inflation than the non cooperative policy rules

business cycle dynamics under rational inattention we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with rational inattention and compare its predictions to data households and decision makers in firms have limited attention and optimally allocate their attention rational inattention is the only source of slow adjustment the model matches the empirical impulse responses to monetary policy shocks and aggregate technology shocks at the same time profit losses and utility losses from inattention are very small furthermore it matters whether one uses this model or a conventional dsge model for policy analysis

a new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle abstract this paper introduces a general procedure for decomposition of non stationary time series into a permanent and transitory component allowing both components to be stochastic the permanent component is shown to be a random walk with drift and the transitory or cyclical component is a stationary process with mean zero the decomposition methodology which depends only on past data and therefore is computable in real time is applied to the problem of measuring and dating business cycles in the portwar u s economy we find that measured expansions and contractions are of roughly equivalent duration and that our dating of cyclical episodes tends to lead the traditional nber dating and to a lesser extent the growth cycle chronology of zarnowitz and boschan 1977

founder s human capital external investment and the survival of new high technology ventures the effect of founder characteristics in attracting external investment and enhancing survival of new high technology ventures is explored using human capital theory and signalling theory we test the effect of founder characteristics on external investment in and survival of new high technology ventures by tracking a random sample of 193 high technology start ups all participants in the israeli technology incubator program founder s business management expertise and academic status attracted external investment but founder s general technological expertise did not founder s business management expertise and general technological expertise positively affected venture survival but founder s academic status did not possible implications for entrepreneurs investors policy and further research are discussed

sticky information and sticky prices abstract in the u s and europe prices change at least once a year yet nominal macro shocks seem to have real effects lasting well beyond a year sticky information models as posited by mankiw and reis 2002 sticky information versus sticky prices a proposal to replace the new keynesian phillips curve quarterly journal of economics 117 1295 1328 sims 2003 implications of rational inattention journal of monetary economics 50 3 665 690 and woodford 2003 princeton university press princeton nj can reconcile micro flexibility with macro rigidity we simulate a sticky information model in which price setters update information on macro shocks less frequently than information on micro shocks we then examine price changes in the micro data underlying the u s cpi empirical price changes react to old information just as sticky information models predict

price setting under uncertainty about inflation abstract we analyze the manipulation of inflation statistics that occurred in argentina starting in 2007 to test the relevance of informational frictions in price setting we estimate that the manipulation of statistics was associated with a higher degree of price dispersion this effect is analyzed in the context of a quantitative general equilibrium model in which firms use information about the inflation rate to set prices reporting inaccurate measures of the cpi entails significant welfare losses especially in economies with volatile monetary policy

short run models and long run forecasts a note on the permanence of output fluctuations suppose that real gnp falls 1 percent lower than one would have expected from its past history how much should one change one s forecast of gnp for ten or twenty quarters ahead that is the question which has recently been addressed by campbell and mankiw 1987 and clark 1987 both of these papers estimate a parsimonious representation of the time series and then compute the implied long run response of gnp to an innovation while clark estimates that the long run impact of an innovation is less than two thirds of the initial impact campbell and mankiw present evidence that shocks persist and even grow over time the goal of this paper is to develop tests of the goodness of fit of specific time series models which are powerful against alternatives that imply different long run impulse responses with postwar quarterly data these tests favor models in which innovations are largely temporary over models in which innovations persist

trends and cycles in macroeconomic time series two structural time series models for annual observations are constructed in terms of trend cycle and irregular components the models are then estimated via the kalman filter using data on five u s macroeconomic time series the results provide some interesting insights into the dynamic structure of the series particularly with respect to cyclical behavior at the same time they illustrate the development of a model selection strategy for structural time series models

asymmetric inflation expectations downward rigidity of wages and asymmetric business cycles household expectations of the inflation rate are much more sensitive to inflation than to disinflation to the extent that workers have bargaining power in wage determination this asymmetry in their beliefs can make wages respond quickly to inflationary forces but sluggishly to deflationary ones i microfound asymmetric household expectations using ambiguity aversion households who do not know the quality of their information overweight inflationary news since it reduces their purchasing power and underweight deflationary news since it increases their purchasing power i embed asymmetric beliefs into a general equilibrium model and show that in such a model monetary policy has asymmetric effects on employment output and wage inflation in ways consistent with the data although wages are downwardly rigid in this environment monetary policy need not have a bias towards using inflation to grease the wheels of the labor market

inside the black box of outcome additionality effects of early stage government subsidies on resource accumulation and new venture performance this paper examines the outcome additionality of prestigious early stage government subsidies drawing on arguments from liabilities of newness and certification literatures we develop a mediated model that unpacks the outcome additionality of the subsidy we hypothesize that subsidized new ventures attract more human and financial capital than their non subsidized counterparts because the association with a prestigious government organization signals legitimacy of the new venture such legitimacy is crucial for attracting qualified employees and financiers the effect of the access to human and financial capital in turn has long term and substantial influence on performance whereas the effect of the subsidy itself is marginal and short lived applying a novel matching approach we compare 130 approved applicants of a prestigious government subsidy with a control group of 154 applications rejected at the very last stage thereby overcoming some of the selection and endogeneity biases associated with similar studies the hypothesized model receives strong support by the data these findings have several implications for government support of new ventures as well as scholars in the field

a traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations under the traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations aggregate demand shocks move output and prices in the same direction while aggregate supply shocks move output and prices in opposite directions this paper examines the joint behavior of u s output unemployment prices wages and nominal money and asks whether it is consistent with this interpretation the answer is a qualified yes

aspects of r d subsidization it is well known that the market fails to provide the socially optimal level of r d expenditure because of the public properties of information see arrow 1963 and usher 1964 in the frictionless perfectly competitive market with no barriers to the use of information the market will provide no r d investment one widely used policy approach to deal with this appropriability problem is patent protection which temporarily assigns the property right to the patented information for some period of time investment in r d can be further stimulated through subsidization though issues in patent protection have been extensively discussed in the literature see nordhaus 1967 1972 scherer 1972 stiglitz 1969 and romano forthcoming the economics of r d subsidization have been largely ignored in spite of its frequent use as a policy tool 1 the purpose of this paper is to explore the usefulness of r d subsidization in markets where patent protection is available with the opportunity to secure a patent firms will have an incentive to invest in r d however only in exceptional circumstances will the market produce the socially optimal r d outlay subsidization can be a useful supplemental policy tool the usefulness of r d subsidization depends on a number of variables including the length of the patent life the character of competition for the patent and on the extent of any excess burdens associated with subsidization our focus is on how optimal subsidization is affected by these variables it is shown that when there is monopoly in the research market the optimal subsidy is always positive no matter how long is the finite patent life or how high is any finite excess burden associated with subsidization in contrast when there are no barriers to entering the research market the optimal subsidy is zero if the patent life is long or the excess burden is high moreover

dynamic pricing and imperfect common knowledge abstract introducing private information into the dynamic pricing decision of firms by adding an idiosyncratic component to marginal cost can help explain two stylised facts about price changes aggregate inflation responds gradually and with inertia to shocks at the same time as individual price changes can be large the inertial behaviour of inflation is driven by privately informed firms strategically herding on the public information contained in the observations of lagged aggregate variables the model also matches the average duration between price changes found in the data and it nests the standard new keynesian phillips curve as a special case to solve the model the paper derives an algorithm for solving a class of dynamic models with higher order expectations

testing okun s law theoretical and empirical considerations using fractional integration abstractfull employment remains at the center of any economic policy following okun s conclusion regarding the trade off relation between unemployment and real gross national product growth new s

information acquisition and learning from prices over the business cycle abstract we study firms incentives to acquire costly information in booms and recessions to investigate the role of endogenous information in accounting for business cycles our model predicts that for a wide range of parameter values firms have a stronger incentive to acquire information when the economy has been in a recession and a pessimistic belief about the state of the economy prevails than after a boom when firms share an optimistic belief the equilibrium price system which features endogenous information transmission dampens aggregate fluctuations by discouraging information acquisition our welfare analysis reveals that information acquisition in the decentralized economy is not efficient this is due to inefficient employment dispersion arising from information heterogeneity in equilibrium time series data for the u s economy support the model s prediction of wages being more informative about total factor productivity after recessions than following booms

the differential effects of output shocks on unemployment rates by race and gender 1 introduction the issues of unemployment and output are central to many macroeconomic policy debates a major source of disagreement among policymakers deals with the maximum sustainable level of output growth that is consistent with the absence of inflation when the economy s rate of output growth exceeds the maximum sustainable rate there will be upward pressure on the economy s overall price level traditional macroeconomic theory emphasizes the role that tight labor markets play in this inflationary pressure the commonly held belief is that in a tight labor market firms must bid workers away from other firms if they wish to expand the size of their workforce hence labor costs in the economy will tend to rise since labor is a major input in the production of virtually all goods and services an increase in labor costs without an accompanying increase in productivity will tend to increase the economy s overall price level conversely when the economy contracts labor costs in the economy will tend to fall inducing a downward movement in the economy s overall price level the labor market is therefore linked to changes in economic activity and to changes in the economy s price level a common feature in many macroeconomic models is the connection between departures from the equilibrium rate of unemployment i e the natural or normal rate and the business cycle these macroeconomic models suggest that unanticipated departures from a steady state in the output market should be related to departures of the actual unemployment rate from the normal rate however the economy s aggregate unemployment rate is actually a weighted average of the unemployment rates of various demographic groups the rate of each demographic group is influenced by that group s flows into and out of unemployment since many of the factors that determine these flows have been found to differ by demographic group it is expected that a given aggregate output shock may have differential effects on the unemployment rates of various groups this article focuses on how unanticipated changes in real output affect the unemployment rate of different demographic groups we examine the time series behavior of black male white male black female and white female monthly unemployment rates over the january 1972august 1999 period specifically we estimate a vector autoregression var and then conduct simulations in the form of impulse responses to determine the extent to which each of these unemployment rates is affected by an aggregate output shock i e an unanticipated change in aggregate output we compare and contrast the magnitude and the persistence of these responses across the groups because the traditional impulse response function generated from a var is sensitive to how the researcher chooses to order the variables with different orderings often giving vastly different results we employ the recently developed generalized impulse response function koop pesaran and potter 1996 pesaran and shin 1998 this technique allows researchers to examine impulse responses that are robust to changes in ordering in the following sections we highlight the major literature that this article builds upon and then we discuss the basics behind the nature of the relationship between the unemployment rate and output a discussion of the data the methodology and the results follows the article closes with concluding remarks and policy implications 2 related literature a number of studies have examined racial differences in unemployment rates and in factors that may affect unemployment rates using data on displaced workers fairlie and kletzer 1998 examine racial differences in job displacement over the years 1984 1992 and find that black males experienced greater rates of job displacement and lower rates of reemployment than white males petterson 1998 uses data from the national longitudinal survey of youth for the 19791986 period to examine the reservation wages of black males compared with those of white males and contrary to earlier research argues that these differences do not explain much if any of the racial employment gap