the great recession and the bulimia of us consumers deep causes and possible ways out this paper focuses on the apparent bulimia of us consumers and its role in the recent crisis we seek to show how various characteristics of american society and the us economy are related to this phenomenon we illustrate some structural features of the us economy and public policies that may have created a difference in terms of patterns of consumption and market participation between the usa and continental europe we then present some explanations of us hyperconsumerism put forward by psychologists and sociologists thus relating this phenomenon to the decline in subjective well being and social capital documented in the usa we also discuss how the negative endogenous growth paradigm may help to account for it finally we review the debate on the us policy agenda by underlining some weaknesses in the two politically more realistic options and by outlining a third policy strategy which is possibly preferable for people s long term well being

home production and social security reform this paper incorporates home production into a dynamic general equilibrium model of overlapping generations with endogenous retirement to study social se curity reforms as such the model dierentiates both consumption goods and labor eort according to their respective roles in home production and market activities using a calibrated model we nd that eliminating the current pay as you go social security system has important implications for both labor supply and consumption decisions and that these decisions are in uenced by the presence of a home production technology comparing our benchmark economy to one with dierentiated goods but no home production we nd that eliminating social security bene ts generates larger welfare gains in the presence of home produc tion this result is due to the self insurance aspects generated by the presence of home production comparing our economy to a one good economy without home production we show that the welfare gains of eliminating social security are magni ed even further these policy analyses suggest the importance of mod eling home production and distinguishing between both time use and consumption goods depending on whether they are involved in market or home production

an equilibrium model of the business cycle with household production and fiscal policy the authors estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model of the u s economy that includes an explicit household production sector and stochastic fiscal variables they use their estimates to investigate two issues first the authors analyze how well the model accounts for aggregate fluctuations they find that household production has a significant impact and reject a nested specification in which changes in the home production technology do not matter for market variables second the authors study the effects of some simple fiscal policy experiments and show that the model generates different predictions for the effects of tax changes than similar models without home production copyright 1997 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

consumer demand and the life cycle allocation of household expenditures the purpose of this paper is to estimate the parameters of household preferences that determine the allocation of goods within the period and over the life cycle using micro data in doing so the authors are able to identify important effects of demographics labor market status and other household characteristics on the intertemporal allocation of expenditure they test the validity of the life cycle model using excess sensitivity tests and find that controlling for demographics and labor market status variables can largely explain the excess sensitivity of consumption to anticipated changes in income

wealth distribution in life cycle economies abstract this paper compares the age wealth distribution produced in life cycle economies to the corresponding distribution in the us economy the idea is to calibrate the model economies to match features of the us earnings distribution and then examine the wealth distribution implications of the model economies the findings are that the calibrated model economies with earnings and lifetime uncertainty can replicate measures of both aggregate wealth and transfer wealth in the us furthermore the model economies produce the us wealth gini and a significant fraction of the wealth inequality within age groups however the model economies produce less than half the fraction of wealth held by the top 1 percent of us households

valuing lost home production of dual earner couples using a life cycle model in which women divide their time between home and market work we establish a link between retirement wealth and the value of forgone home production we use data from the health and retirement study to estimate the model s parameters and adjust the growth rate of gdp to reflect reductions in non market output we find that the value of forgone home production is modest about 25 percent of women s measured earnings

tax distortions in sweden and the united states we calculate the welfare costs of distortionary taxation including inflation in models calibrated for the united states and sweden the welfare costs are calculated using comparative steady state as well as dynamic analysis where we take the costs of transition from the distorted to the optimal steady state into account we also calculate the welfare costs of adding stochastic fluctuations our main finding is that the total welfare costs of the distortionary taxes including the distortionary effects of inflation are about five times higher in sweden than in the united states meanwhile stochastic fluctuations in policy turn out to have a relatively small impact on welfare

can progressive taxation account for cross country variation in labor supply abstract the difference between average hours worked in the us and average hours worked in continental european countries has been increasing since the early 1970s to explain this phenomenon this paper develops an endogenous growth model with two key properties agents are heterogeneous in their rates of time preference and labor skills and the model incorporates progressive income taxes the model is calibrated to us and german data for the periods 1971 1974 and 1986 1989 our findings suggest that the degree of progressivity is a major factor in explaining the patterns of the us and german labor supply over time predictions of the model also match the distributional trends in both countries during this time period

a time series analysis of representative agent models of consumption andleisure choice under uncertainty this paper investigates empirically a model of aggregate consumption and leisure decisions in which utility from goods and leisure is nontime separable the nonseparability of preferences accommodates intertemporal substitution or complementarity of leisure and thereby affects the comovements in aggregate compensation and hours worked these cross relations are examined empirically using postwar monthly u s data on quantities real wages and the real return on the one month treasury bill the estimated values of the parameters governing preferences differ significantly from the values assumed in several studies of real business models several possible explanations of these discrepancies are discussed

new evidence on labor supply employment versus hours elasticities by sex and marital status using the tri annual micro panel data of the survey of income and program participation we estimate fixed effects labor supply models separating the extensive and intensive margins the employment elasticity is 0 6 for single men versus 1 1 for married men the employment elasticity is 2 4 for single women versus 1 8 for married women the compensated hours worked elasticity is 0 4 for employed single and married men and 0 7 for employed single and married women the implied aggregate employment elasticity of 1 5 and hours per employee elasticity of 0 5 indicate employment fluctuations account for three fourths of wage induced variation in labor hours

an empirical model of labor supply in a life cycle setting this paper formulates and estimates a structural intertemporal model of labor supply using theoretical characterizations derived from an economic model of lifetime behavior a two step empirical analysis yields estimates of intertemporal and uncompensated substitution effects which provide the information needed to predict the response of hours of work to life cycle wage growth and shifts in the lifetime wage path

delivery lags and buffer stocks in the theory of investment by the firm abstract this paper contains a dynamic model of a firm holding a stock of unfilled orders for output while facing a fixed delivery lag attached to acquiring new capital goods the model leads to a two stage optimal control problem where the initial time interval corresponds to the marshallian short run and the second interval is the period during which deliveries of capital goods may arrive optimality criteria are provided for both time intervals and the behavior of the firm is characterized along both adjustment paths the short run decisions of the firm are shown to be tied to long run decisions planned by the firm

the relative impact of inheritance and other factors on economic inequality an empirically grounded micro simulation of saving with bequests related negatively either in total to average children s income or separately to individual children s incomes is constructed for a single generation in a steady growth economy behavioral parameters are set so that predicted bequests to the next generation are consistent with both the scale and assignment of inheritances taken from a real world source for the simulation generation the relative impact of inheritance and other factors on different aspects of economic inequality is assessed while inheritance is a major cause of wealth inequality its influence on annual income and lifetime resources is small and in the latter case ambiguous inheritance perpetuates and may intensify inequalities arising originally from other causes in that sense it is a secondary cause of inequality but that is not of course to say that it is of secondary importance the extent of its influence on distribution remains an open question which cannot be decided merely by theoretical reasoning but requires in addition something in the nature of a quantitative analysis of the relevant facts wedgwood 1929 pp 60 61

tax effects versus budget effects on labor supply this paper analyzes the effects on labor supply of parallel changes in taxes and public spending of various types a number of important recent developments in the labor supply behavior of households are highlighted by such a study of various types of budget effects rather than isolated tax effects this comes out in particular when considering cross substitution effects on labor supply of changes in public spending on goods and services or of the subsidization of goods and services provided by private markets moreover the income effects of tax changes are often mitigated or possibly even removed by the income effects of the accompanying expenditure changes

taxation and household labor supply we evaluate reforms to the u s tax system in a life cycle setup with heterogeneous married and single households and with an operative extensive margin in labor supply we restrict our model with observations on gender and skill premia labor force participation of married females across skill groups children and the structure of marital sorting we concentrate on two revenue neutral tax reforms a proportional income tax and a reform in which married individuals flle taxes separately separate flling our flndings indicate that tax reforms are accompanied by large increases in labor supply that difier across demographic groups with the bulk of the increase coming from married females under a proportional income tax reform married females account for more than 50 of the changes in hours across steady states while under separate flling reform married females account for all the change in hours

technology shocks and cointegration in quadratic models of the firm in two quadratic models of a firm it is shown that if the firm s production function is not separable in its arguments then the presence of any unit root technology shock will prevent factor inputs from being cointegrated with input prices absent integrated technology shocks there will be one cointegrating vector for every quasi fixed factor held by the firm thereby providing one possible rationale for multiple cointegrating vectors in multivariate time series systems the parameters of these cointegrating vectors may be used to recover the parameters of the static factor demand functions obeyed by the firm copyright 1995 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

human capital and fdi inflows to developing countries new empirical evidence abstract despite the dramatic increase in total foreign direct investment fdi flows to developing countries in the last few years the bulk of the inflows has been directed to only a limited number of countries it has been argued that developing countries might enhance their attractiveness as locations for fdi by pursuing policies that raise the level of local skills and build up human resource capabilities nevertheless the empirical evidence in the literature in support of this recommendation for a large sample of developing countries is scant this paper evaluates this argument in the light of the evolution in the structural characteristics of fdi and empirically tests the hypothesis that the level of human capital in host countries may affect the geographical distribution of fdi the empirical findings are a human capital is a statistically significant determinant of fdi inflows b human capital is one of the most important determinants and c its importance has become increasingly greater through time

transitional dynamics and the distribution of wealth in a neoclassical growth model abstract the evolution of the personal distribution of wealth in a standard neoclassical growth model is studied if the economy is growing toward the steady state and preferences are such that marginal utility from consumption is infinite finite at some all positive non negative consumption level s then the average saving propensity of agents is positively negatively related to their wealth if the economy is decaying toward the steady state these relationships are reversed if wealth and average saving propensity are positively negatively related the distribution of current period wealth lorenz dominates is lorenz dominated by next period s distribution of wealth

on the allocation of time a quantitative analysis of the roles of taxes and productivities basic theory suggests that increases in labor income taxes induce people to substitute household production for market work time use surveys for 12 oecd countries during 1970 2010 however show that instead people substituted leisure for market work to understand why this happened we carefully measure the labor productivity of household production and find that it grew strongly in many countries of our sample employing a calibrated model of household production we show that strong growth in the labor productivity of household production implies that leisure absorbs the reductions in market work after labor income tax increases

should day care be subsidized in the presence of distortionary taxes on labor can subsidies on childcare flnanced by a further increase in taxes raise welfare by encouraging women with small children to work we approach this question in two difierent ways first we consider a set of stylized models where we prove analytically that under some conditions the ramsey optimal policy consists in making childcare expenses tax deductible then we construct a calibrated stochastic dynamic life cycle model of household decision making designed to capture some facts about labor supply in germany we flnd that the welfare gains associated with subsidizing childcare are considerable and that the maximum gains are realized when childcare is subsidized to an even greater extent than what tax deductibility implies

wealth inequality and intergenerational links previous work has had difficulty generating household saving behaviour that makes the distribution of wealth much more concentrated than that of labour earnings and that makes the richest households hold onto large amounts of wealth even during very old age i construct a quantitative general equilibrium overlapping generations model in which parents and children are linked by accidental and voluntary bequests and by earnings ability i show that voluntary bequests can explain the emergence of large estates while accidental bequests alone cannot and that adding earnings persistence within families increases wealth concentration even more i also show that the introduction of a bequest motive generates lifetime savings profiles more consistent with the data

buffer stocks and labor demand further evidence this paper presents estimates of a multivariate flexible accelerator model of labor demand hours and the number of production workers which shows that stocks of finished goods unfilled orders and materials inventories have significant impacts upon labor demand univariate time series models are used to capture expectations of the determinants of desired stocks new orders real wages and real raw materials prices and these magnitudes are found to follow a random walk without drift expected new orders and errors in forecasting new orders are found to have an important impact upon labor inputs real wage forecasting errors are found to be important for hours demand

the interrelationship between price and output decisions and investment decisions microfoundations and aggregate implications abstract this paper develops a model of firm behavior in which both price and output decisions and investment decisions are made the model permits an analysis of the dynamics of inventory and capital accumulation on price and output behavior there are two main results 1 short run price and output levels will differ from long run levels as desired stocks of inventory and capital diverge from actual levels 2 the size of the elasticities of price and output to changes in demand and cost variables depends on the speed with which gaps between desired and actual stocks are closed through investment

the impact of demand and price expectations on the behavior of prices the effects of demand and price expectations on price behavior are analyzed using data from the manufacturing sector and a model formulated to pinpoint the demand oriented factors affecting prices and to incorporate price expectations as a direct influence on price behavior the expected normal demand is seen to have a strong and systemic influence on price behavior the expected normal level of new orders is found to be an adequate measure with sector data in general although some industries require more specification the effects of inventories and unfilled orders on prices are sporadic and across sectors and industries demand oriented forces are concluded to perform as well statistically as cost push determinants expectations concerning the current normal industry price level have a significant and consistent impact on price behavior this supports the idea that firms setting prices take into account their estimates of competitor s prices future price expectations appear to have little effect on current price information 15 references

the cyclical and secular behaviour of the labour input comparing efficiency units and hours worked summary a monthly labour input series designed to correct for the fact that all hours worked are not of the same quality is constructed and its properties compared with unadjusted hours worked this efficiency units series is constructed from bls data on hours worked and earnings by age and sex the cyclical fluctuations displayed by the efficiency units series are smaller on average than those displayed by hours worked although the difference is not large however the secular behaviour of the series is quite different hours worked per capita displays a significant positive trend while efficiency units per capita does not

timing constraints and the allocation of time the effects of changing shopping hours regulations in the netherlands abstract a 1996 change in shopping hours regulations in the netherlands provides an opportunity to study the effects of timing constraints on total time spent in shopping working and other activities as well as the timing of these activities we develop a simple structural model to make predictions about the effects of imposition and relaxation of a timing constraint on time use patterns and utilize time diary data from 1995 1997 1999 and 2000 to examine time use patterns by demographic group before and after the change in addition to a change in the timing of shopping we find a non negligible increase in the total time spent shopping

market oriented institutions and policies and economic growth a critical survey this paper surveys recent evidence suggesting that market oriented institutions and policies are strongly related to economic growth focusing on studies using the economic freedom ef indicator of the fraser institute this index is critically discussed also various serious shortcomings of empirical studies using this index are identified nevertheless there are strong indications that liberalization i e an increase in the ef index stimulates economic growth this paper also reviews studies on the determinants of ef political liberalization is often found to enhance economic liberalization whereas there is less evidence for causality running in the other direction

habit prisoner s dilemma and americans welfare cost of working much more than europeans europeans work much less than americans some studies claim this is due to high taxes in europe which would benefit by adopting us tax rates and work time others find that taxes have little or no impact on work time i examine the hypothesis that americans would benefit by reducing work time to europe s level empirical and experimental studies show utility falls as other people s income rises due to its historical experience europe is able to internalize this and other negative externalities by restricting work time through minimum vacation time and maximum weekly work hours while the us is not resulting in a prisoner s dilemma overworking trap equilibrium a simple model and work time data are used to derive the us welfare gain from reducing work time to europe s level findings are i parameter values are consistent with experimental results on the relative impact of own and other people s income ii the welfare gain s present value is about 120 percent of annual welfare and iii even if europe s policy reduces work time excessively it does remain beneficial as long as the reduction is less than twice the optimal one

returns to scale market power and the nature of price rigidity in new keynesian models with self fulfilling expectations increasing returns to scale and firms market power are two potential sources of sunspot expectations in neoclassical models we show that in new keynesian models returns to scale and market power can have fundamentally different implications for broad macroeconomic issues including self fulfilling expectations depending on the nature of price rigidity our findings suggest that the design of stabilization monetary policy can depend on precise knowledge about the economy s real and nominal features therefore a clear understanding of the specific economic environment and its relevance to monetary policymaking for ensuring macroeconomic stability can be an integrated part of monetary policy practice

cross country differences in unemployment fiscal policy unions and household preferences in general equilibrium we develop a five period overlapping generations model with individuals who differ by ability and with an imperfect labour market union wage setting for the individuals of lower ability the model explains human capital formation hours worked and unemployment within one coherent framework its predictions match the differences in the unemployment rate across 12 oecd countries remarkably well a shapley decomposition of these differences reveals an almost equal role for fiscal policy variables and union preferences as to fiscal policy differences in unemployment benefits play a much more important role than tax differences differences in households taste for leisure are unimportant

the composition of foreign direct investment and protection of intellectual property rights evidence from transition economies while existing literature has examined the impact of intellectual property protection on the volume of foreign direct investment fdi little is known about its effect on the composition of fdi inflows the author addresses this question empirically using a unique firm level data set from eastern europe and the former soviet union she finds that weak protection deters foreign investors in technology intensive sectors that rely heavily on intellectual property rights the results also indicate that a weak intellectual property regime encourages investors to undertake projects focusing on distribution rather than local production the latter effect is present in all sectors not just those relying heavily on intellectual property protection

household formation female labor supply and savings in this paper we aim to quantify the impact of changing family structures on labor supply and savings in western societies our dynamic general equilibrium model features both genders and it takes into account changes in marital status as a stochastic process the numerical results indicate that changes in household formation can partly explain the reallocation of male and female labor supply observed during the last decades in germany we also find a negative impact on capital accumulation and we show that a combination of higher marital risk and a narrowing gender wage gap can explain the changes in hours ratios between single and married men and women

life cycle prices and production we use scanner data and time diaries to document how households substitute time for money through shopping and home production we document substantial heterogeneity in prices paid for identical goods for the same area and time with older households shopping the most and paying the lowest prices doubling shopping frequency lowers a good s price by 7 to 10 percent we estimate the shopper s price of time and use this series to estimate an elasticity of substitution between time and goods in home production of roughly 1 8 the observed life cycle time allocation implies a consumption series that differs markedly from expenditures

the effects of health events on the economic status of married couples this paper uses measures of exogenous health shocks to identify the different channels through which changes in health conditions affect income wealth and consumption behavior the results indicate that serious health conditions have strong effects on household wealth but that the effects for women are larger and more significant than the effects for men the source of the asymmetry arises from the fact that general living expenses increase when wives become seriously ill while for husbands health shocks do not affect these expenditures

does home production replace consumption spending evidence from shocks in housing wealth in the great recession becker s theory of home production suggests substitutability between consumption spending and home production using panel data with detailed information on spending and time use we analyze househ

structural transformation marketization and household production around the world we provide evidence on household and market production in 36 countries since 1960 on average the household sector accounts for almost half of total hours worked as gdp per capita increases the employment share of household production in total hours worked initially declines and then hardly changes while the employment shares of market goods and services decrease and increase estimating the value added of household production yields similar patterns labor productivity of household production is lower than and positively correlated with that in the market these findings can be used as an input into quantitative work involving household production

random earnings differences lifetime liquidity constraints and altruistic intergenerational transfers abstract this paper develops a model of private savings behavior in which households care about their descendants cannot have negative net worth and have lifetime earnings depending on random draws from an exogenous distribution of abilities the elements interact very lucky parents are likely to leave large estates constrained children are unusually likely to receive intergenerational transfers the paper proves the existence of a stationary cross sectional distribution of wealth endogenously determines where liquidity constraints will bind and shows that the long term interest rate must be such that ricardian neutrality fails its last section generates several illustrative numerical simulations

accounting for the u s earnings and wealth inequality we show that a theory of earnings and wealth inequality based on the optimal choices of ex ante identical households that face uninsured idiosyncratic shocks to their endowments of efficiency labor units accounts for the u s earnings and wealth inequality almost exactly

effective tax rates in macroeconomics cross country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption abstract this paper proposes a method for computing tax rates using national accounts and revenue statistics using this method we construct time series of tax rates for large industrial countries the method identifies the revenue raised by different taxes at the general government level and defines aggregate measures of the corresponding tax bases this method yields estimates of effective tax rates on factor incomes and consumption consistent with the tax distortions faced by a representative agent in a general equilibrium framework these tax rates compare favorably with existing estimates of marginal tax rates and highlight important international differences in tax policy

regression toward mediocrity in economic stature this paper provides estimates of the correlation in lifetime earnings between fathers and sons intergenerational data from the national longitudinal survey are used earlier studies conducted for the united states report elasticities of children s earnings with respect to parent s earnings of 0 2 or less suggesting extensive integenerational mobility these estimates however are biased downward by error contaminated measures of lifetime economic status estimates presented in this paper correct for the problem of measurement error and find the intergenerational correlation in income to be on the order of 0 4 this suggests considerably less intergenerational mobility than previously believed jel j62

retirement home production and labor supply elasticities a standard life cycle model with home production implies a tight relationship between key preference parameters and the changes in time allocated to home production and leisure at retirement we derive this relationship and use data from the atus to explore its quantitative implications the key finding is that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution for leisure and the elasticity of substitution between time and goods in home production are approximately equal in contrast to what is commonly assumed

market perceptions and inventory price employment plans ordered probit analyses of national federation of independent business survey data show that individual firms generally conform to the stock adjustment model of inventory investment with the predicted response more likely when inventories are perceived as excessive than when deficient contrary to inferences about slow adjustment speeds from aggregate data inventory adjustments by individual firms do not tend to take more than three months to complete there is no evidence that price is used to achieve desired inventory targets but prices are sticky in that changes set in motion one quarter tend to continue into the next quarter copyright 1989 by mit press

international portfolio diversification and endogenous labor supply choice abstract this paper presents a multi country general equilibrium model driven by productivity shocks where labor supply and consumption are chosen endogenously we use this framework to study the effect of labor supply for optimal international diversification we find that the model s ability to help explain home bias depends crucially on the level of substitutability between consumption and non working time quantitatively the non separability in the preferences helps in a nonnegligible way but it cannot entirely explain the extreme degree of home bias in u s portfolios

differences in hours worked in the oecd institutions or fiscal policies we study the determinants of the level and the evolution of per capita hours worked in a panel of oecd countries since the 1970s following pesaran 2006 our empirical strategy allows for the possibility of cross sectionally correlated error terms due to unobserved common factors which are potentially nonstationary we find that much of the variation in per capita hours worked across countries and over time can be explained by differences in the level and structure of taxes and government expenditures differences in the evolution of labor and product market institutions have much less of a role to play our results show that a careful treatment of the time series properties of the data is crucial

some empirical estimates of the demand for hours in u s manufacturing industries this paper presents estimates of hours equations based upon optimizing behavior of firms in a dynamic context the order stock distinction is the point of departure for this paper firms will be presumed here to produce to stock or to order hours equations will be derived which link hours worked to levels of inventories of finished goods or unfilled orders early work on the demand for labor ignored the effects of inventones and unfilled orders on the choice of labor input levels however some evidence on this subject was provided by the important and well known work of nadiri and rosen 1973 1 using a theoretical framework first studied by lucas 1967 they estimate dynamic factor demand schedules for six quasi fixed factors of production i e factor inputs which are subject to adjustment costs among these six inputs are employment hours per man and total inventories it is well known that the accumulation of any input will then depend upon the gaps between desired and actual levels of all quasi fixed factors thus the demand for hours per man is taken to depend among other things upon lagged hours employment and total inventories the cyclical interaction between inventories and the demand for labor arises through adjustment parameters attached to these lagged stocks completing the specification of the model by including the determinants of desired stocks sales the wage relative to capital costs and a time trend they apply the model to industrial aggregate data their results provide little evidence that inventories are an important determinant of the demand for hours of the eighteen industries examined only six produce negative and significant inventory coefficients further relative factor prices are found to be significant in only six industries apart from aggregation bias issues there are several misspecifications which could account for these results there is no reason why the impact of each inventory stock should have an identical impact upon hours for example it is reasonable to suppose that if the firm holds excess finished goods relative to desired levels it will reduce hours per worker but if the firm holds stocks of materials which exceed desired levels the firm may wish to increase hours so as to offset the output effects through the production function of declining stocks of materials similar comments can be offered about work in process inventories thus disaggregating by stage of fabrication would appear to be appropriate to sort out inventory effects on hours demand second nadiri and rosen ignore the impact of order backlogs upon hours following belsley 1969 it is well known that many of the firms in these industries produce not to stock but to order for firms producing goods requiring special attention order backlogs replace finished goods as a buffer against fluctuations in demand thus order backlogs should appear directly in the hours equation finally the dynamics of labor demand and factor prices may require a distributed lag representation to capture the response of labor demand to shifts in expected real wages as suggested by neftci 1978 in a different context the effects of real wages on hours may be captured if allowance is made for a distributed lag relationship between hours and real wages this paper presents two models which are designed to address some of these issues extending received for publication june 30 1982 revision accepted for publication january 7 1983 pennsylvania state university the research reported in this paper was partially supported by the employment and training administration u s department of labor under research and development grant no 91 24 77 34 and by the federal reserve bank of philadelphia the views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsoring institutions or the federal reserve system in any way i wish to thank professors c f christ l j maccini h rose and m ali khan for their constructive criticisms of this research two anonymous referees also provided excellent comments john hinrichs of the bureau of economic analysis kindly provided the deflated inventory data used here diane mayer and donna robinson provided expert research assistance any remaining errors are the responsibility of the author l see nadiri and rosen 1973 for a survey of the employment demand literature

optimal taxation with home production abstract optimal taxes for europe and the u s are derived in a realistically calibrated model in which agents buy consumption goods and services and use home capital and labor to produce household services the optimal tax rate on services is substantially lower than the tax rate on goods specifically the planner cannot tax home production directly and instead lowers the tax rate on market services to increase the relative price of home production the optimal tax rate on the return to home capital is strictly positive and the welfare gains from switching to optimal taxes are large

humps and bumps in lifetime consumption in this article we argue that the life cycle model that allows demographics to affect household preferences and relaxes the assumption of certainty equivalence can generate hump shaped consumption profiles over age that are very similar to those observed in household level data sources and in particular match the differences in shape across different education groups liquidity constraints or myopia are not required to explain the empirical features of observed life cycle patterns

why do europeans work so little market work per person is roughly 10 higher in the united states than in sweden however if we include the work carried out in home production the total amount of work only differs by 1 i set up a model and show that differences in policy mainly taxes can account for the discrepancy in both labor supply and home production between sweden and the united states these results are independent of the elasticity of labor supply

impactos das distorcoes tributarias sobre a determinacao da oferta de trabalho usando um modelo de crescimento neoclassico prescott 2004 e ohanian et alii 2008 explicam com sucesso as diferencas de horas trabalhadas entre paises da ocde aplicamos este mesmo modelo para o caso brasileiro entre 1988 e 1998 nossa principal conclusao e que esta metodologia falha em explicar a experiencia brasileira o modelo preve como consequencia do aumento de impostos verificado no periodo uma queda substancial no numero de horas trabalhadas entretanto os dados mostram apenas uma leve queda utilizamos ainda especificacoes alternativas para a preferencia do agente representativo as quais tornam a oferta de trabalho menos sensivel a impostos entretanto o ajuste aos dados e satisfatorio apenas para par metros bastante distantes daqueles utilizados pela literatura internacional sugerimos que a presenca significativa de um setor informal pode explicar a especificidade brasileira

the aggregate effects of sectoral reallocations abstract can a one time permanent change in the fundamentals behind the sectoral composition of the economy prompt an aggregate downturn can this downturn be non negligible even if one uses us data to determine the relative size of gross vs net job flows and the importance of job creation costs can one consider the military build down of the 1990s as a plausible cause for the 1990 1991 recession do sectoral reallocations generate responses that are qualitatively similar to productivity shocks we use a variant of the mortensen pissarides 1994 review of economic studies 61 397 415 job creation destruction model calibrate it to us labor market data and run experiments that suggest one can answer yes to all these questions

consumption and time use over the life cycle we incorporate home production in a dynamic general equilibrium model of consumption and savings with illiquid housing and a collateralized borrowing constraint the calibrated model explains life cycle patterns of households time use and consumption of different categories documented from the microdata it predicts that the interaction of the labor efficiency profile and the home production technology explains households time use the resulting income profiles the endogenous borrowing constraint and home production account for the initial hump in consumption the complementarity of home hours home input and housing in home production drives the consumption profiles later in the life cycle

increasing returns and unsynchronized wage adjustment in sunspot models of the business cycle a challenge to models of equilibrium indeterminacy based on increasing returns is that required increasing returns for generating indeterminacy can be implausibly large and rise quickly with the relative risk aversion in labor we show that unsynchronized wage adjustment via a relative wage effect can both lower the required degree of increasing returns for indeterminacy to a plausible level and make it invariant to the relative risk aversion in labor consequently indeterminacy and sunspot driven fluctuations can emerge for plausible increasing returns regardless of the relative risk aversion in labor our model generates reasonable dynamics in terms of matching the business cycle and sunspot shocks become more important with labor market friction

intertemporal substitution in labor supply evidence from micro data the sensitivity of the supply of labor to intertemporal variation in the wage is an important issue in macroeconomics the analysis of social security and pensions and the study of life cycle patterns of work this paper explores two approaches to the measurement of intertemporal substitution that have appeared in the literature the first approach is to use consumption to control for wealth and unobserved expectations about future wages in the labor supply equation the second approach is to estimate a first difference equation for hours in which labor supply from the previous period serves as a control for wealth and wage expectations the results indicate that intertemporal substitution elasticity for married men is positive but small

2008 presidential address institutions economic freedom and cross country differences in performance this address describes the history of the economic freedom of the world efw project and the development of the efw index this index is a measure of the extent to which the institutions and policies of various countries are coordinated by personal choice voluntary exchange open markets and clearly defined and enforced property rights the index contains 42 different components and is currently available for 141 countries data for approximately 100 countries are available back to 1980 the efw index incorporates many of the elements that new institutional economists argue are important sources of growth thus it facilitates empirical investigation of the institutional theory of growth and crosscountry comparisons of economic performance in this regard the paper considers 10 propositions that have been addressed with the index and what has been learned from this analysis

family economics and macro behavior in this 1987 presidential address to the american economic association the author explores the contributions of the field of family economics to macroeconomic analysis the focus is on family behavior as an active endogenous factor that both affects and is affected by the evolution of the economy much of the time is spent on long term economic growth although i also discuss short and long cycles in economic activity and the interaction between overlapping generations through social security transmission of inequality and in other ways many conclusions in these and presumably other macro areas change radically when family choices get the attention they deserve excerpt

the effects of economic freedom on fdi inflows an empirical analysis there is a regular emphasis on the significant role of inward foreign direct investment fdi in promoting economic growth this favourable relationship has induced many governments to adopt polici

taxing women a macroeconomic analysis based on well known evidence on labor supply elasticities several authors have concluded that women should be taxed at lower rates than men we evaluate the quantitative implications and merits of this proposition relative to the current system of taxation setting a proportional tax rate on married females equal to 4 8 increases output and married female labor force participation by about 3 9 3 4 and 6 9 4 0 respectively gender based taxes improve welfare and are preferred by a majority of households nevertheless welfare gains are higher when the u s tax system is replaced by a proportional gender neutral income tax 2011 published by elsevier b v

how robust is the relationship between economic freedom and economic growth using various indicators for economic freedom it is shown that increases in economic freedom are robustly related to economic growth this conclusion holds even if the impact of outlying observations is taken into account the level of economic freedom is not related to growth

estimating labour supply elasticities based on cross country micro data a bridge between micro and macro estimates the nordic model relies on high tax rates to finance an extensive welfare state if labour supply elasticities are large the burden of financing the model can be large even if arguably the practice of providing subsidised goods that support labour supply is likely to mitigate these effects we utilise repeated cross sections of micro data from several countries including the four major nordic countries available from the luxembourg income study lis to estimate labour supply elasticities both at the intensive and extensive margins the data span over four decades and include a large number of tax reform episodes with tax rate variation arising both from cross sectional and country level differences using these data we investigate whether micro and macro estimates differ in a systematic way the results do not provide strong support for the view that elasticities at the macro level would be higher than the corresponding micro elasticities

institutional framework and economic development international evidence this paper examines the effect of quality of the institutional framework on economic development our empirical results support the hypothesis that good institutions improve efficiency and accelerate growth the positive effect of institutional quality is more pronounced with mutually reinforcing support of economic freedom our results also indicate that good institutions help developing countries grow faster to achieve conditional convergence we infer from the results that economic development requires not only physical and human capital formation but also freedom to choose and institutional support

inventories layoffs and the short run demand for labor this paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the short run employment layoff and inventory strategies of firms on average more than two thirds of all layoffs in american manufacturing end in a rehire by the employer of origin martin feldstein 1975 david lilien 1980 these temporary layoffs have recently accounted for about half of all ongoing employer initiated spells of unemployment in that sector see table 1 and have led to a revised interpretation both of the involuntary nature of these separations costas azariadis 1975 feldstein 1976 martin baily 1977 and of the durability of employment relationships evidently a significant proportion of unemployed workers know that the conditions that generated their separations are temporary and so they expect to be recalled within some reasonable time the point of departure for this paper is in interpreting these findings as evidence of a privately and socially efficient stock of excess capacity held against contingent future demands that is as an inventory of a productive input this view leads to empirically refutable hypotheses regarding both the role of temporary layoffs and the circumstances under which they will be important in particular both excess capacity idle resources and inventories are devices by which firms may economize on the costs of rapid adjustments when faced with unstable market conditions george stigler 1939 in such an environment the demands for layoffs and for other buffer stocks are jointly determined elements of long run technology the choice among alternative stocks will depend on relative profitabilities and firms may choose to hold stocks of inputs as a substitute for inventory accumulation especially if the costs of varying capacity or of storage are important this reasoning implies that i the structure of short run employment and layoff decisions will vary across firms and industries and ii differences in these structures will be systematically related to the role of inventories in firms dynamic strategies some perspective is warranted at least since charles holt et al 1960 economists have recognized the production smoothing role of inventories and the necessity of predicting future demand in making current decisions david belsley 1969 gerald childs 1967 michael ward 1978 similarly one of the contributions of recent work on implicit labor contracts is in viewing the exchange of labor services as a bilateral and durable commitment both these lines of analysis are concerned with the methods firms use to respond to fluctuating demand yet the underlying interrelated nature of employment and inventory decisions has rarely been recognized roger miller 1968 m ishaq nadiri and sherwin rosen 1973 r g crawford 1979 robert hall 1972 this paper aims to provide a framework for evaluating these decisions and in so doing to explain some interesting features of observed labor markets the notion of substitution between inventories of human and physical capital suggests a more disaggregated look at the data table 2 shows the importance of temporary layoffs in the distribution of unemployment among manufacturing industries it reports layoff and total unemployment rates for twelve representative industries over the period 197376 and average layoff rates and recall frequencies for 1958 76 among all 21 twodigit manufacturing industries the correlation between layoff and rehire rates is 6 and the table illustrates this evidently industries with larger than normal layoff rates also tend to have larger rehire frequencies from firm initiated spells of unemployment this university of chicago i am indebted to gary becker robert cotterman sherwin rosen jose scheinkman michael ward finis welch the managing editor and an anonymous referee for discussions and comments at various stages the usual disclaimer applies

unemployment market work and household production time diary data from four countries suggest that differences in market time between the unemployed and employed represent additional leisure not increased household production in areas where unemployment is cyclically high however reduced market work is offset by additional home production

new estimates of intertemporal substitution abstract this paper estimates the intertemporal elasticity of substitution for married males taking into account that many individuals are at a corner solution for weeks worked by virtue of working year round the fact that these individuals do not choose to engage in much intertemporal substitution may simply indicate that the corner solution inhibits their ability to do so rather than indicating a low desire to intertemporally substitute our estimates are able to distinguish between these two cases with the results showing much higher intertemporal elasticities of substitution than reported in earlier studies

policy and non policy determinants of u s equity foreign direct investment this study examined the effects of policy and non policy variables on the location of new u s direct investment abroad as distinct from reinvested earnings of existing affiliates using 1977 and 1982 benchmark data the data revealed statistically significant effects for investment incentives positive performance requirements negative and host country effective tax rates negative with interesting differences between the two time periods and between developed versus developing countries significance was also found for non policy variables such as political stability cultural distance gdp per capita and infrastructure

economic freedom and growth decomposing the effects most studies of the relation between economic freedom andgrowth of gdp have found a positive relation one problem inthis area is the choice of economic freedom measure a singlemeasure does not reflect the complex economic environment anda highly aggregated index makes it difficult to draw policyconclusions in this paper we investigate what specific typesof economic freedom measures that are important for growth the robustness of the results is carefully analysed since thepotential problem with multicollinearity is one of thenegative effects of decomposing an index the results showthat economic freedom does matter for growth this does notmean that increasing economic freedom defined in generalterms is good for economic growth since some of thecategories in the index are insignificant and some of thesignificant variables have negative effects

institutions freedom and technical efficiency the impact of institutions on economic performance is currently the subject of much research in this study we use panel data to estimate a stochastic production frontier and the sources of inefficiency for a broad set of countries a maximum likelihood procedure is used to estimate the parameters for the stochastic production frontier and the determinants of inefficiency simultaneously our results show that institutions that promote greater economic freedom in turn promote efficiency

homework in labor economics household production and intertemporal substitution abstract we argue that estimates of intertemporal substitution elasticities obtained from standard life cycle models are subject to a downward bias because they neglect changes in work done at home over the life cycle we extend the standard life cycle model to include home production and estimate it using data from three time use surveys we find that the downward bias is large

consumption versus expenditure previous authors have documented a dramatic decline in food expenditures at the time of retirement we show that this is matched by an equally dramatic rise in time spent shopping for and preparing meals using a novel data set that collects detailed food diaries for a large cross section of u s households we show that neither the quality nor the quantity of food intake deteriorates with retirement status we also show that unemployed households experience a decline in food expenditure and food consumption commensurate with the impact of job displacement on permanent income these results highlight how direct measures of consumption distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated shocks to income whereas measures of expenditures obscure the distinction

wealth distribution and optimal inheritance taxation in life cycle economies with intergenerational transfers we introduce intergenerational transfers into a general equilihrium life cycle model in order to explain observed levels of wealth heterogeneity in our overlapping generations model heterogenous agents face uncertain lifetime and leave both accidental and voluntary bequests to their cinldren furthermore agents face stochastic employment opportunities the model is calibrated with regard to the characteristics of the us economy our resuits indicate that hequests onl account for a sniall proportion of ohserved wealth heterogeneitv the introduction of an inheritance tax increases both welfare are measured by the average value of the newborn and equality of the wealth distribution preliminary versions of this paper have been presented at conference on intergenerational transfers taxes and the distribution of wealth in uppsala 1999 and the econoinetric societv european meetirig in santiago dc compostela 1999 we would like to thank michael kaganovieli john laitner james smith frank stafford and carl cristian von weizsacker for comments on earlier versions of the paper all remaining errors are ours