the rotten kid theorem meets the samaritan s dilemma a familiar result in the economic theory of the family is becker s rotten kid theorem this theorem states that altruism by a family member will lead other selfish members to act efficiently from the family viewpoint we extend becker s one period model to two periods and show that parental altruism can result in an inefficiency known in other contexts as the samaritan s dilemma implications of this for transfer arrangements within the family and for the ricardian equivalence theorem are drawn

the determinants of migrant remittances this article explores the factors that account for variation in remittance flows why do some immigrants send much more money to their country of origin than others this is a question that in the aggregate has implications for national economies and migration related policy the analysis departs from the classic studies of remittances and considers how the context of contemporary migration in europe is likely to affect remittance patterns possible influences on remittance sending are disaggregated into nine domains and each is discussed with reference to theoretical arguments and empirical findings the temporal aspects of remittance sending are discussed separately the final section of the article considers implications of the micro level analysis for aggregate remittance flows and policy it is argued that the focus on altruism versus self interest in the literature has partly diverted attention from explaining the actual variation that is important in a policy perspective

the family and the state the immaturity of children sometimes precludes efficient arrangements between children and parents or others responsible for child care the difficulty in establishing efficient relations within families provides the point of departure for our interpretation of the heavy state involvement in the family the authors believe that a surprising number of state interventions mimic the agreements that would occur if children were capable of arranging for their care many regulations of the family improve the efficiency of family activities these interventions include subsidies to education and training social security and other old age support subsidies to births laws that limit access to divorce and the sale of children and laws that require parents permission for early marriage and other choices of children families that leave bequests can force children to repay parents for investments in human capital by reducing bequests therefore these families do not underinvest in childrens human capital by contrast families that do not leave bequests often poorer families do underinvest in children the state may subsidize schools and other training facilities to raise investments in children by poorer families to efficient levels authors modified

intergenerational transfers and liquidity constraints a growing body of evidence indicates that liquidity constraints could affect a substantial proportion of u s consumers but little is known about why these constraints might exist an important but little explored issue is the relationship between inter vivos intergenerational transfers and liquidity constraints these transfers can ease borrowing constraints empirical transfer patterns match those predicted from a model in which transfers are allocated to liquidity constrained consumers in particular the distinction between current and permanent incomes of potential recipients is a key aspect of private transfer behavior the findings have important implications for our understanding of consumer behavior

the strategic bequest motive although recent research suggests that intergenerational transfers play an important role in aggregate capital accumulation our understanding of bequest motives remains incomplete we develop a simple model of strategic bequests in which a testator influences the decisions of his beneficiaries by holding wealth in bequeathable forms and by conditioning the division of bequests on the beneficiaries actions the model generates falsifiable empirical predictions that are inconsistent with other theories of intergenerational transfers we present econometric and other evidence that strongly suggests that bequests are often used as compensation for services rendered by beneficiaries

inter vivos transfers and intergenerational exchange the surge of interest in intergenerational transfers in the past decade has sparked a debate over the motivation for them are transfers given out of altruism or part of an exchange while each motive is probably at work to some extent we know little about whether one motive predominates the question is relevant for issues concerning public income redistribution and inequality in the family but despite its importance empirical evidence about motives is scarce because of limited data we investigate a new data set the national survey of families and households which remedies many of the shortcomings of other data sets containing private transfer information we find that empirical patterns for inter vivos transfers i e transfers between living persons are more consistent with exchange than altruism

normal backwardation and the inventory effect the existence of backwardation in futures markets has remained an intriguing and controversial issue since keynes first argued that it was the normal state of affairs most theoretical explanations for the existence of backwardation are quite restrictive among the assumptions are pure forward as opposed to true futures trading differences in probability beliefs degrees of risk aversion or the level of commodity commitments among long and short hedgers in a simple model of short and long commodity hedgers we show that a backwardation equilibrium can occur in a true futures as opposed to forward market even when hedgers are identical in these respects and speculators hold the same probability beliefs as hedgers this result is driven by houthakker s completely neglected intuitive notion that one possible explanation for backwardation is the high correlation between cash and futures prices when inventories of a commodity are large while the simple existence of such an inventory effect does not n

productivity convergence in japan s manufacturing industries abstract this paper studies the question of convergence of labor productivity in 12 manufacturing industries in japan during 1985 to 1997 using the transition matrix for analysis our results indicate that manufacturing industries do not display a pattern of convergence

productivity across industries and countries time series theory and evidence the authors examine whether convergence in aggregate productivity is also occurring at the industry level in fourteen oecd countries from 1970 to 1987 using both cross section and time series methods they find convergence in some sectors such as services however surprisingly the authors find that convergence does not hold for the manufacturing sector decomposing aggregate convergence into industry productivity gains and changing sectoral shares of output they find the service sector to be responsible for the bulk of cross country convergence to the united states the authors develop a new result on the asymptotic normality of panel unit root estimators to formally test within sector convergence copyright 1996 by mit press

motivations to remit evidence from botswana in this article a theory of motivations to send remittances is described and tested with data from botswana altruism is one of the motivations tested and found to be an insufficient explanation for remittances among migrants in botswana a refinement of the model stipulates a modified altruism or enlightened self interest in this model the relationship between the migrant and family is tempered by an implicit understanding of mutual benefit the household strategy may be to encourage some members to migrate as a means of spreading risk and sharing gains the household strategy is similar to an insurance policy where migration is to places where market potential is high the risks incurred might be high the example is given of migration during a drought in botswana migrant remittances were greater in households with more cattle or households with more to lose drought alone was not statistically related to remittances increases in remittances were related to increased levels of education it is suggested that repayment was the motive for parents investment in migrants education migrants gains are identified as the potential for an inheritance the security of channeling investments through a trusted family member and security in having a home to return to it is pointed out that the altruism and family remittances from urban migration were strategies that bridged the simple dynamic of either urban development or rural development impacting on family welfare it is suggested that household models of economy adopt some measure to express the relationship of household wealth to remittances from urban migrants

a continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy abstract this paper is a theoretical investigation of equilibrium forward and futures prices we construct a rational expectations model in continuous time of a multigood identical consumer economy with constant stochastic returns to scale production using this model we find three main results first we find formulas for equilibrium forward futures discount bond commodity bond and commodity option prices second we show that a futures price is actually a forward price for the delivery of a random number of units of a good the random number is the return earned from continuous reinvestment in instantaneously riskless bonds until maturity of the futures contract third we find and interpret conditions under which normal backwardation or contango is found in forward or futures prices these conditions reflect the usefulness of forward and futures contracts as consumption hedges

inheritance and labor supply using data from the michigan panel study of income dynamics and from federal estate tax returns this paper investigates the labor disincentive caused by inheritance the results are of interest for several reasons whether or not inheritances are a strong labor disincentive figures prominently in the controversy surrounding the relative importance of inheritances and life cycle savings as sources of u s wealth also the size of the disincentive is important in determining the relationship between inheritance and inequality our results indicate that inheritances do not lead to large reductions in the labor supply of men and married women family consumption increases after an inheritance but again the effect is small

a theory of rational addiction we develop a theory of rational addiction in which rationality means a consistent plan to maximize utility over time strong addiction to a good requires a big effect of past consumption of the good on current consumption such powerful complementarities cause some steady states to be unstable they are an important part of our analysis because even small deviations from the consumption at an unstable steady state can lead to large cumulative rises over time in addictive consumption or to rapid falls in consumption to abstention our theory also implies that cold turkey is used to end strong addictions that addicts often go on binges that addicts respond more to permanent than to temporary changes in prices of addictive goods and that anxiety and tensions can precipitate an addiction

oil and money economic theory and the brent system abstract the world s largest oil trading forum is the brent system consisting of two so called 15 day markets for paper and real oil and the international petroleum exchange ipe in london the problem is that this system s progress toward an efficient and transparent pricing mechanism has not been trouble free although recent innovative departures from conventional futures market practice have reduced the capacity of large oil companies and trading firms to manipulate this market it also seems likely that the progress being made in combining various derivatives will open up new possibilities for commodity risk management

government debt redistributive fiscal policies and the interaction between borrowing constraints and intergenerational altrusim abstract we show how borrowing constraints intergenerational altruism and their interaction shape the aggregate savings response to government debt and fiscal policies that redistribute resources between living generations we also characterize the conditions under which borrowing constraints bind and the altruistic transfer motive operates in terms of the strength of the altruism motive the shape of the lifetime productivity profile the willingness to substitute consumption intertemporally and other factors finally we characterize the dynamic response of aggregate savings to nonneutral government debt policies in economies with binding borrowing constraints

productivity convergence in oecd manufacturing industries the extent of and convergence of average labor productivity across manufacturing industries in 18 oecd countries over the period 1972 1992 shows large inter industry differences one reason for these differences is knowledge and capital barriers preventing the occurrence of catch up we find the level of average labor productivity as a proxy for these barriers is correlated with the extent of convergence

social security and private transfers in developing countries the case of peru do social security systems crowd out private transfers from younger to older generations this question has generated much theoretical discussion but little empirical work exists to confirm or refute this crowding out hypothesis we investigate the connection between social security and private transfers in peru using the peruvian living standards survey and find that private transfers from young to old would have been nearly 20 percent higher without social security benefits this indicates that the peruvian social security system is less effective at delivering benefits to the elderly than a simple assignment of government expenditures would suggest social security s displacement of private transfers while significant is less than that predicted by models with widespread altruistic transfers

growth empirics a panel data approach a comment this paper comments on recent developments in the literature on the econometric analysis of international growth and convergence it notes that panel estimates of the neoclassical model accommodating level effects for individual countries through heterogeneous intercepts deal with some of the econometric difficulties arising in some of the earlier cross sectional studies but it notes that in dynamic panels heterogeneity in growth effects and in speeds of convergence renders this estimator inconsistent also the pervasiveness of such heterogeneity is demonstrated in three samples of countries and the effects of incorrectly imposing homogeneity on estimated parameters are illustrated and discussed

motives for private transfers over the life cycle an analytical framework and evidence for peru abstract this paper tests for the motives for private income transfers we consider two motives altruism and exchange the question of private transfer motives is important because such motivation can influence the effects of public income transfers on the distribution of income using a household survey for peru we find that transfer amounts received increase with recipient pre transfer income which contradicts a key prediction of the strong form of the altruism hypothesis but is consistent with exchange we also find that capital market imperfections are likely to be an important cause of private transfers and that social security benefits crowd out the incidence of private transfers

equilibrium in a futures market normal backwardation the hypothesis that futures prices normally lie below expected future spot prices was justified by keynes 6 and hicks 2 by the contention that speculators while risk averse are less so than hedgers consequently hedgers pay speculators to bear that hedgers risk houthakker 5 supported this view arguing that according to all available data short hedging and conversely long speculation is the more common type working 9 favored the view that futures prices are unbiased predictors of future spot prices if this is true hedgers are not on average paying to reduce their risk nor are speculators on average earning a premium for assuming risk risk averse speculators will participate in such a market only if there are nonhomogeneous beliefs regarding the expected spot price the level of futures prices is important not only because it determines the cost of hedging but also because it influences production decisions in light of the competing views in the literature of both the level of futures prices and the factors which determine them we will analyze these issues in this paper to do so we employ a model based on incomplete markets in certainty claims in this and other respects identified later the model parallels existing futures markets in agricultural commodities the analysis shows in the absence of speculators that the relative magnitudes of the futures price pf and the expected future spot price e p are determined by the business transactions of and markets available to those economic units with a commercial or production interest in the commodity this defines the conditions under which there is a role for speculators even if they have the same degree of risk aversion and share the expectations of other market participants thus neither differences in degrees of risk

the timing of intergenerational transfers tax policy and aggregate savings the authors analyze an overlapping generations framework that accommodates two observations 1 the interest rate on consumption loans exceeds the rate of return to savings and 2 private intergenerational transfers primarily occur early in the life cycle assuming altruistically motivated transfers in at least some family lines and other plausible conditions the authors prove the invariance of capital s steady state marginal product to government debt government expenditures and the tax rates on labor and capital income the authors show that the tax treatment of household interest payments has powerful effects on capital intensity and aggregate savings in life cycle and especially altruistic linkage models copyright 1992 by american economic association

motives for private income transfers private income transfers are becoming increasingly recognized as a key aspect of the u s economy the majority of private income transfers occur inter vivos i e between living persons but very little is known about this type of transfer behavior this paper tests alternative hypotheses concerning motivation for inter vivos transfers two motives are considered altruism and exchange evidence presented here casts doubt on the altruistic model of transfer behavior observed patterns for inter vivos transfers are more consistent with exchange related motives this finding has important implications for the effects of public transfer programs on the distribution of economic well being

intra household resource allocation an inferential approach if household income is pooled and then allocated to maximize welfare then income under the control of mothers and fathers should have the same impact on demand with survey data on family health and nutrition in brazil the equality of parental income effects is rejected unearned income in the hands of a mother has a bigger effect on her family s health than income under the control of a father for child survival probabilities the effect is almost twenty times bigger the common preference or neoclassical model of the household is rejected if unearned income is measured with error and income is pooled then the ratio of maternal to paternal income effects should be the same equality of the ratios cannot be rejected there is also evidence for gender preference mothers prefer to devote resources to improving the nutritional status of their daughters fathers to sons

testing the neoclassical model of family labor supply and fertility the mcelroy horney nash bargaining model of family demand behavior relaxes the restriction that nonearned income of husband and wife has the identical effect on family labor supply and commodity demands this restriction of the neoclassical model offamily behavior is tested for the determination of husband and wife labor supply andfertility based on the 1981 socioeconomic survey of thailand the neoclassical restriction is rejected for female labor supply andfertility another unexplored limitation offamily demand studies due to the sample self selection of intact marriages is empirically treated through alternative estimation strategies in this case a more sharply focused theory of marital behavior is needed to identify family demand models

the empirical content of nash bargained household behavior in households whose allocation decisions can be represented as nash bargained household decisions extrahousehold environmental parameters eeps serve as pure shifters of the threat points the comparative statics of changes in demands due to changes in these eeps are given these are incorporated into a comprehensive statement of the empirical content of nash bargained household behavior including a nash generalization of barten s 1966 fundamental matrix equation of the theory of consumer demand estimation and data requirements are discussed along with nested testing of the following structure the neoclassical model is nested in the nash bargained model which in turn is nested in an unrestricted model of household demands emphasized throughout is the enriched menu of explanatory variables for demand analysis provided by the nash model as well as the model s ability to jointly analyze i household formation and ii intrahousehold allocation decisions

a strategic analysis of corners and squeezes we develop a dynamic game theoretic model of a futures market in which prices can be manipulated by corner and squeeze we investigate equilibrium trading strategies and the price dynamics these strategies produce price paths produced by our model can mimic observed prices for potentially comerable commodities and explain the volatility of certain prices even when no manipulations occur our model also generates occasional apparent price bubbles and accounts for the existence of normal backwardation in futures markets even when players are risk neutral

an inquiry into quasi credit contracts the role of reciprocal credit and interlinked deals in small scale fishing communities in agrarian village societies beset with many hazards and uncertainties people evolve various means of coping with risk what is perhaps less known is that credit transactions can sometimes serve the function of reducing risk in such societies this article is concerned with examining several insurance motivated credit arrangements in small scale fishing communities a hunger insurance mechanism of reciprocal credit and a system of interlinked contracts aimed at insuring against risks in the spheres of labour and marketing relations will be extensively dealt with moreover the concept of triadic relationships will be shown to have special relevance in the case of traditional insurance arrangements aiming at controlling problems of moral hazard

altruism in the family and selfishness in the market place adam smith argued in a famous passage that people are selfish in their market transactions it is not from the benevolence of the butcher the brewer or the baker that we expect our dinner but from their regard to their own interest we address ourselves not to their humanity but to their self love and never talk to them of our own necessities but of their advantages 1937 p 14 in an earlier study he said with irony we are not ready to suspect any person of being defective in selfishness 1853 p 446 selfishness in market transactions has been assumed in practically all subsequent discussions of the economic system objections were dismissed with vague allusions to human nature or with an assertion that altruism loses out to selfishness in the struggle to survive in the market sector yet altruism is generally recognized to be important within a family again adam smith said

nobel lecture the economic way of looking at behavior an important step in extending the traditional theory of individual rational choice to analyze social issues beyond those usually considered by economists is to incorporate into the theory a much richer class of attitudes preferences and calculations while this approach to behavior builds on an expanded theory of individual choice it is not mainly concerned with individuals it uses theory at the micro level as a powerful tool to derive implications at the group or macro level the lecture describes the approach and illustrates it with examples drawn from my past and current work