the turning black tide energy prices and the canadian dollar the authors revisit the relationship between energy prices and the canadian dollar in the amano and van norden 1995 equation which shows a negative relationship such that higher real energy prices lead to a depreciation of the canadian dollar

understanding corporate coherence theory and evidence abstract multiproduct firms are perceived to be coherent in their scope yet there is no strong theoretical foundations to explain coherence in modern industrial organization theory this paper shows that as u s manufacturing firms grow more diverse they maintain a constant level of coherence between neighboring activities this finding runs counter to the idea that firms with many activities are generally more incoherent a framework is then presented which appeals to the nature of enterprise learning path dependencies and the nature of the selection environment to explain the ubiquity of coherent diversifiers

stickiness and the adaptation of organizational practices in cross border knowledge transfers the reuse of organizational practices in multiple locations is a fundamental way in which mncs leverage knowledge to seek competitive advantage scholars approaching the issue of adaptation from both a market and an institutional perspective argue that in order to achieve fit with the local environment some degree of adaptation is advisable and the need for adaptation increases as the institutional distance between source and recipient locations increases however arguments to date have examined the effect of adaptation primarily on a subsidiary s long term performance a necessary precursor is to understand the effect of adaptation on the transfer process itself as transfer difficulty or stickiness may preclude the reuse of an organizational practice in the first place in this paper we explore how the adaptation of organizational practices affects the stickiness of cross border transfers we use structural equation modeling to analyze data from 122 internal transfers of best practice contrary to expectation we find that adaptation significantly increases rather than decreases the stickiness of cross border knowledge transfer

foreign entry cultural barriers and learning this paper examines the longevity of foreign entries hypotheses are developed on the mode start ups vs acquisitions and ownership structure wholly owned vs joint ventures in relation to cultural distance the hypotheses are tested within a framework of organizational learning using data on 225 entries that 13 dutch firms carried out from 1966 onwards results show that the presence of cultural barriers punctuates an organization s learning cultural distance is a prominent factor in foreign entry whenever this involves another firm requiring the firm to engage in double layered acculturation we also identify locational paths of learning the longevity of acquisitions is positively influenced by prior entries of the firm in the same country similarly the longevity of foreign entries in which the firm has a majority stake improves whenever the expanding firm engaged in prior entries in the same country and in other countries in the same cultural block

modeling returns and volatility transmission between oil price and us nigeria exchange rate article i nfo this paper models returns and volatility transmission between oil price op and us nigeria exchange rate exr consequently it provides five main innovations i it analyzes op and exr using the recently devel oped test by narayan and popp 2010 np which allows for two structural breaks in the data series ii it employs the narayan and liu 2011 nl garch unit root test to evaluate robustness of np test iii it con siders the newly developed var garch model to capture the spillover effects in the returns and volatility of op and exr iv it modifies the var garch model to account for structural breaks obtained from the np procedure and v using the results obtained from the var garch model it examines the optimal weights of holding oil and foreign exchange fx assets and also computes the hedging ratios in the presence of oil risk based on the np and nl tests it finds robust structural breaks that coincide with the period of global fi nancial crisis as well as period of fx crisis in nigeria also it establishes a bidirectional returns and spillover transmission between oil and fx markets finally its findings reveal evidence of hedging effectiveness involving oil and fx markets in nigeria and thus the inclusion of oil into a diversified portfolio of fx will improve its risk adjusted return performance

liabilities of regional foreignness and the use of firm level versus country level data a response to dunning et al 2007 we are pleased that dunning et al have provided macro country level data demonstrating the increased internationalization of many nations over the past decade we also appreciate their findings lending support to our perspective on the regional nature of world business our work was based solely on micro firm level data both country level data and firm level data have methodological problems which we attempt to reconcile in this commentary we also address the broader conceptual issues of how to interpret country level vs firm level data

asset stock accumulation and sustainability of competitive advantage given incomplete factor markets appropriate time paths of flow variables must be chosen to build required stocks of assets that is critical resources are accumulated rather than acquired in strategic factor markets barney barney j 1986 strategic factor markets expectations luck and business strategy management sci october 1231 1241 sustainability of a firm s asset position hinges on how easily assets can be substituted or imitated imitability is linked to the characteristics of the asset accumulation process time compression diseconomies asset mass efficiencies inter connectedness asset erosion and causal ambiguity

oil prices and the rise and fall of the us real exchange rate abstract questions of the relative importance of real vs monetary shocks in explaining exchange rate movements still have no widely accepted answer despite their importance both for the research agenda and for policy questions we examine this issue using a variety of empirical techniques for the us effective exchange rate we find that a stable link exists between oil price shocks and the us real effective exchange rate over the post bretton woods period the results suggest that oil prices may have been the dominant source of persistent real exchange rate shocks and that energy prices may have important implications for future work on exchange rate behavior

cointegration and threshold adjustment this article proposes an extension to the engle granger testing strategy by permitting asymmetry in the adjustment toward equilibrium in two different ways we demonstrate that our test has good power and size properties over the engle granger test when there are asymmetric departures from equilibrium we consider an application namely whether there exists cointegration among interest rates for instruments with different maturities this issue has been widely tested with mixed results we argue that either cautious policy or possibly opportunistic behavior on the part of the federal reserve implies that an equilibrium relationship between short and long term interest rates exists but that adjustments from disequilibrium are asymmetric in nature empirical tests using u s yields confirm the asymmetric nature of error correction among interest rates of different maturities

performance effects of added cultural distance in the path of international expansion the case of german multinational enterprises this paper contributes to the debate on the performance impact of added cultural distance in the multinational enterprise s mne s expansion path our research focuses on the ability of mnes to handle complexity associated with added cultural distance in international expansion and on the effect this may have on profitability we hypothesise that firms that make expansion moves involving a high level of added cultural distance per unit of time and those that expand in culturally distant countries in an irregular fashion that is with a higher variability will be less profitable we test these hypothesised relationships using detailed data on 2404 expansion moves undertaken by our panel of 91 german mnes whose expansion paths we tracked during periods ranging between 5 and 20 years

exchange rates of oil exporting countries and global oil price shocks a nonlinear smooth transition approach this paper models logistic and exponential smooth transition adjustments of real exchange rates for six major oil exporting countries in response to different shocks affecting oil prices the logis

configurations of strategy and structure in subsidiaries of multinational corporations a three fold typology of subsidiary roles world mandate specialized contributor local implementer was induced from the literature and its empirical validity was confirmed adopting a configurational approach we then explored the ways in which subsidiary structural context varies across subsidiary role types structural context characteristics were determined through a discussion of the underlying principles of the hierarchy and heterarchy models of multinational organization the key findings were a higher strategic autonomy in world mandates than in local implementers b a more internationally configured value chain in world mandates and specialized contributors than local implementers c lower levels of internal product flows in world mandates than the other two types and d a significantly lower performance in specialized contributors implications for a configurational model of subsidiary management and for heterarchy as a higher level conceptualization are discussed

global economic activity and crude oil prices a cointegration analysis abstract this paper empirically investigates the cointegrating relationship between crude oil prices and global economic activity the kilian economic index is used as an indicator of global economic activity based on a supply demand framework and the cointegration theory we find that real futures prices of crude oil are cointegrated with the kilian economic index and a trade weighted us dollar index and crude oil prices are influenced significantly by fluctuations in the kilian economic index through both long run equilibrium conditions and short run impacts we also develop an empirically stable data coherent and single equation error correction model ecm which has sensible economic properties empirical results based on the ecm show that the adjustment implied by a permanent change in the kilian economic index is a relatively drawn out process

world steel production a new monthly indicator of global real economic activity this paper proposes world steel production as an indicator of global real economic activity world steel production data is published with only a one month delay thereby providing timely information for world real gdp forecasters we find that world steel production and lutz kilian s 2009 index of global real economic activity generate large gains in forecasting world real gdp relative to an autoregressive benchmark a forecast combination of world steel production kilian s 2009 index of global real economic activity and an index of the industrial production of oecd countries plus six non oecd emerging economies produces significant gains in forecasting world real gdp relative to an autoregressive benchmark

oil prices and real exchange rates in this paper we investigate the long run relationship between real oil prices and real exchange rates by using a monthly panel of g7 countries from 1972 1 to 2005 10 we first test whether exchange rates are cointegrated with real oil prices it is shown that real oil prices may have been the dominant source of real exchange rate movements and that there is a link between real oil prices and real exchange rates we then examine the ability of real oil prices to forecast future real exchange returns panel predictive regression estimates suggest that real oil prices have significant forecasting power the out of sample prediction performances demonstrate greater predictability over longer horizons

resolving the exposure puzzle the many facets of exchange rate exposure theory predicts sizeable exchange rate fx exposure for many firms however empirical research has not documented such exposures to examine this discrepancy we extend prior theoretical results to model a global firm s fx exposure and show empirically that firms pass through part of currency changes to customers and utilize both operational and financial hedges for a typical sample firm pass through and operational hedging each reduce exposure by 10 15 financial hedging with foreign debt and to a lesser extent fx derivatives decreases exposure by about 40 the combination of these factors reduces fx exposures to observed levels

a three stage theory of international expansion the link between multinationality and performance in the service sector it is generally assumed that the performance of a firm improves with greater multinationality yet recent empirical studies have shown both a u shaped relationship which suggests an initially negative effect of international expansion on performance before the positive returns of international expansion are realized and an inverted u shaped relationship which suggests that international expansion beyond an optimal level is again detrimental to performance and results in a negative slope this paper proposes a new unified three stage theory of international expansion that incorporates both concepts in a sigmoid hypothesis it then tests this on data from 11 service industries highlighting the difference between knowledge based and capital intensive service sectors

does bank ownership affect lending behavior evidence from the euro area abstract we analyze the differences in lending policies across banks characterized by different types of ownership using micro level data on euro area banks during the period 1999 2011 to detect possible variations in bank lending supply responses to changes in monetary policy our results identify a general difference between stakeholder and shareholder banks following a monetary policy contraction stakeholder banks decrease their loan supply to a lesser extent than shareholder banks a detailed analysis of the effect among stakeholder banks reveals that cooperative banks continued to smooth the impact of tighter monetary policy on their lending during the crisis period 2008 2011 whereas savings banks did not stakeholder banks propensity to smooth their lending cycles suggests that their presence in the economy has the potential to reduce credit supply volatility

oil price fluctuations and u s dollar exchange rates adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the u s dollar usd against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008 our long run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil exchange rate relationship increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the usd against net oil exporter currencies such as canada mexico and russia on the other hand the currencies of oil importers such as japan depreciate relative to the usd when the real oil price goes up

when elephants fight the grass gets trampled the globe and hofstede projects four aspects of the debate between hofstede and javidan et al are highlighted first it is shown that characterizing cultures either on the basis of aggregated self perceptions or on the basis of aggregated perceptions of others in one s society are not equivalent procedures each has inherent errors and neither can be considered as providing the one best way to denote national cultures furthermore the number of dimensions of national culture that can be usefully studied must be proportional to the limited number of nations available for comparative analyses third although hofstede and javidan et al appear to differ on optimal ways of aggregating individual level data to the nation level both appear to have done so in a way that does not prevent detection of differing relations between items at different levels of analysis finally we need greater clarity as to the ways in which national wealth relates to other aspects of culture it is a major component of contemporary national cultures and must be retained as an element within nation level analyses

the effect of national culture on the choice of entry mode characteristics of national cultures have frequently been claimed to influence the selection of entry modes this article investigates this claim by developing a theoretical argument for why culture should influence the choice of entry two hypotheses are derived which relate culture to entry mode choice one focusing on the cultural distance between countries the other on attitudes towards uncertainty avoidance using a multinomial logit model and controlling for other effects the hypotheses are tested by analysing data on 228 entries into the united states market by acquisition wholly owned greenfield and joint venture empirical support for the effect of national culture on entry choice is found

adaptation and performance in foreign markets evidence of systematic under adaptation past empirical studies have yielded no consistent relationship between strategy adaptation and firm performance these inconclusive results may be partially due to a bias amongt managers to under adapt their host market strategies this paper presents the results of the second stage of a longitudinal study identifying a potential status quo bias among exporters leading to systematic under adaptation

culture and congruence the fit between management practices and national culture the financial performance of european and asian work units of one multinational company is examined as a function of the congruence between management practices and national culture using hofstede s five national culture dimensions and analogous management practices we find that work unit financial performance is higher when management practices in the work unit are congruent with the national culture

dynamic capabilities what are they this paper focuses on dynamic capabilities and more generally the resource based view of the firm we argue that dynamic capabilities are a set of specific and identifiable processes such as product development strategic decision making and alliancing they are neither vague nor tautological although dynamic capabilities are idiosyncratic in their details and path dependent in their emergence they have significant commonalities across firms popularly termed best practice this suggests that they are more homogeneous fungible equifinal and substitutable than is usually assumed in moderately dynamic markets dynamic capabilities resemble the traditional conception of routines they are detailed analytic stable processes with predictable outcomes in contrast in high velocity markets they are simple highly experiential and fragile processes with unpredictable outcomes finally well known learning mechanisms guide the evolution of dynamic capabilities in moderately dynamic markets the evolutionary emphasis is on variation in high velocity markets it is on selection at the level of rbv we conclude that traditional rbv misidentifies the locus of long term competitive advantage in dynamic markets overemphasizes the strategic logic of leverage and reaches a boundary condition in high velocity markets copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

what makes a currency procyclical an empirical investigation this paper looks at the correlation between the cyclical components of gross domestic product and the exchange rate and classifies countries currencies as procyclical if they appreciate in good times countercyclical if they appreciate in bad times and acyclical otherwise with this classification the paper shows that i the countries that are commodity exporters and experience procyclical capital flows tend to have procyclical currencies ii countries with procyclical currencies tend to restrict their capital accounts perhaps as an attempt to reduce the degree of procyclicality iii countries with procyclical currencies pursue procyclical monetary policy iv however in the last decade there is a disconnect between the cyclicality of currency and monetary policy and v the disconnect may reflect a decline in the fear of floating which can be partially attributed to an improvement in countries net foreign asset positions

how firms grow clustering as a dynamic model of internationalization this paper provides a methodology for identifying the dynamics of international firm expansion demonstrating systematic evidence of both toe in the water and concentrated bursts of internationalization by us multinational enterprises we use the methodology of statistical process control to analyze initial investments in host countries and develop a numerical measure of temporal clustering or bunching using this measure we identify two distinct patterns of growth whereas some firms cluster their investments over time others do not cluster their investments for firms that cluster three types of clustering strategy are identified concentrating hibernating and hybrid arguments based on internal firm architecture experience and learning are advanced to explain these findings

a note on weak exogeneity in var cointegrated models abstract in this note an extension of the traditional definition of weak exogeneity when the variables are i 1 and cointegrated is presented in particular the concept of long run weak exogeneity is introduced when the parameters of interest are the elements of the cointegrating vectors this definition extends some previously available definitions in this framework

what did globe really measure researchers minds versus respondents minds the globe research program expanded the hofstede model of five dimensions of national cultures to 18 a re analysis based on globe s 2004 summary book produced five meta factors one was significantly correlated with gnp capita and from the hofstede dimensions primarily with power distance three more correlated significantly with hofstede s individualism uncertainty avoidance and long term orientation the fifth included the few globe questions that related to hofstede s dimension of masculinity versus femininity globe s respondents minds classified the questions in a way that the researchers minds did not account for and which closely resembles the original hofstede model

global economic activity crude oil price and production stock market behaviour and the nigeria us exchange rate abstract this paper investigates the dynamic relationship among oil price nigeria us exchange rate stock market activity kilian s global economic activity index and global oil production we develop a robust stable single equation error correction model where the exchange rate solely bears the burden of short run adjustments with causal influences from the rest of the variables included in the model we find a role for asymmetry in the long run confirming the presence of equilibrium path adjustment asymmetry and suggesting that the positive and negative variations must be accounted for in designing the policymaking process to enforce stable exchange rate movement by comparing the linear and nonlinear models we find that the two models are complementary and that each is horizon bound in its forecasting ability

knowledge acquisition from foreign parents in international joint ventures an empirical examination in the hungarian context in this paper we examine organizational characteristics structural mechanisms and contextual factors that influence knowledge acquisition from the foreign parent in international joint ventures ijvs we in turn relate assessments of knowledge acquisition to ijv performance the data come from a survey of ijvs in the hungarian context where learning and knowledge acquisition from the foreign parent is thought to be particularly critical adaptation mechanisms such as capacity to learn articulated goals and structural mechanisms such as the provision of training technology and managerial assistance by foreign parents all were positively associated with the degree to which ijvs reported acquiring knowledge from their foreign parents we also found limited support for the belief that cultural conflicts can impede knowledge acquisition but only for two party joint ventures with 50 50 equity arrangements we also looked at the relationship between knowledge acquisition and different dimensions for evaluating ijv performance the relationship between knowledge acquisition and performance was significant for all indicators of performance through knowledge acquisition from the foreign parent and the organizational characteristics hypothesized to enhance ijv knowledge acquisition affected assessments of some dimensions of performance more than others our findings contribute to advancing knowledge about the relationship between organizational characteristics and organizational knowledge acquisition in ijvs as well as the relationships between knowledge acquisition and different dimensions of ijv performance

oil prices and exchange rates the quotations show a sharply divergent pattern in the response of the foreign exchange market to announcements of oil price increases during the first oil shock news about oil price rises led to a strengthening of the dollar whereas during the i979 surge of oil prices the reverse was generally true when the news was not so bad as feared the dollar fell back in i974 but rose in i979 in 1980 the pattern shifted once again back to dollar appreciation is there a rational fundamental explanation for the behaviour of the foreign exchange market or is it a matter of traders responding to what other traders arbitrarily think it is difficult to resolve this question but some insight can be provided through an analytical examination of the relationship between oil price increases and exchange rates the paper begins with a theoretical framework for analysing the relation between oil prices and exchange rates and then uses the theory to explain the behaviour of the foreign exchange market

cultural diversity and the performance of multinational firms we test the hypothesis that culturally related international diversification will have a positive impact on firm performance and that the opposite will be true for culturally unrelated globalization cultural diversity for fortune 500 firms was used to predict performance over a ten year period 1985 1994 controlling for several organizational and industry characteristics regression tests using nine indicators of cultural diversity revealed no significant cultural effects alternate interpretations are offered

international diversification and firm performance the s curve hypothesis a proposed theoretical framework for the study of multinationality and performance includes both benefits and costs of geographic expansion over different phases of internationalization data on 1 489 japanese firms over 12 years show a consistent horizontal x s shaped x relationship between multinationality and performance further firms investing more heavily in intangible assets such as technology and advertising achieved greater profitability gains from growth in foreign direct investment our framework and findings highlight complexity and temporal dynamics

will disruptions in opec oil supply have permanent impact on the global oil market abstract opec has long been a major stakeholder and strong player in the global energy market especially in the petroleum sub sector in recent time however there have been questions over the influence of opec in the sub sector due to changing petroleum production landscape specifically as a result of the discovery of unconventional energy resources in north america and emergence of non opec petroleum producing and exporting countries this development could have significant effect on the global energy market and the macro economy of opec member countries the stationarity or otherwise of opec oil production supply has important implications for determining whether fluctuations in opec market supply has temporary or permanent effect using the zivot andrews structural break stationarity test and production data of opec member countries from 1980 to 2011 this paper investigates whether fluctuations in opec market supply has temporary or permanent effect the empirical analysis shows that for only 5 opec members nigeria saudi arabia ecuador kuwait and uae is the hypothesis of unit root rejected this implies that for the five 5 opec members the effects of shocks to oil production are not permanent and future pattern of oil production can be predicted following past trend the practical implication of this finding is that opec production quota strategy may not have long term impact on the global oil market thus the cartel needs to improve oil production policy coordination among members and ensure strict adherence to production quota while also stressing the need for diversification in member countries

learning to compete in a transition economy experience environment and performance does organizational learning as measured by experience in a host country affect international expansion performance if so does such a relationship between experience and performance hold over time how do the environmental forces in the host country affect such a relationship focusing on organizational learning by multinational enterprises mnes operating in a transition economy this study answers these three critical questions by exploring the relationships among experience environment and performance at the subsidiary level based on a recent survey of 108 mne subunits operating in china we find that the intensity and diversity of host country experience is an important predictor of subunit performance while the positive effect of the intensity of experience on performance diminishes over time the impact of the diversity of experience on performance remains unchanged moreover for mnes experiencing greater environmental dynamism complexity and hostility there is a stronger positive relationship between experience and performance