optimal dynamic marketing mix policies for frequently purchased products and services versus consumer durable goods a generalized analytic approach abstract this paper deals with the qualitative characterization of optimal pricing and advertising policies together with the optimal ratio of the advertising elasticity of demand to its price elasticity over time the problem is studied for frequently purchased products and services fps as well as consumer durable goods cdg in both monopolistic and duopolistic markets demand dynamics cost learning and discounting of future profits are taken into consideration in addition both the open loop and feedback methodologies are pursued to characterize and compare the derived optimal policies the paper uses an analytical approach to characterize the optimal dynamic policies in a general setting as is mathematically tractable followed by the analysis of more specific models to gain additional managerial insights while maintaining a certain degree of generality optimal fps marketing mix policies are shown to be different from their cdg counterparts for both monopolistic and duopolistic markets while the ratio of advertising elasticity to price elasticity appears to have been governed by similar set of rules for fps and cdg the direction of change of such ratio over time looks different from each other managerial implications and directions for future research are also discussed

highly skilled and well connected migrant inventors in cross border m as based on a relational view of international business we investigate the role of migrant inventors in cross border mergers and acquisitions undertaken by r d active firms we hypothesize that the migrant inventors international social networks can be leveraged by their employers in order to identify and or integrate relevant knowledge bases of acquisition targets in the inventors home country we nuance our hypothesis by means of several conditional logistic regressions on a large matched sample of deals and control cases the impact of migrant inventors increases with the distance between countries and for targets located in countries with weak administrative legal systems as well as when targets are either innovative or belong to high tech sectors or to the same sector as the acquirer and for full versus partial acquisitions

closed loop advertising strategies in a duopoly using the lanchester model to describe the dynamics of the market where two firms compete for customers by advertising we solve the problem of determining an optimal advertising strategy for maximum discounted profits we develop both open and closed loop strategies and explain the relationship between them using a new mathematical approach we prove that our closed loop solution is a global nash equilibrium the closed loop strategy is time variant and depends linearly on the actual market share the time variant coefficient incorporates the discount factor its computation requires the solution of a backward differential equation and a set of two nonlinear differential equations for an initial value problem the closed loop advertising expenditures are proportional to the open loop advertising expenditures and to the square of the competitor s actual market share this provides a very practical adaptive control rule that allows the manager to adjust the actual advertising expenditure and to deviate f

trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption investors hold a substantially larger proportion of their wealth portfolios in domestic assets than standard portfolio theory would suggest a phenomenon called equity home bias in the absence of this bias investors would optimally diversify domestic output risk using foreign equities therefore consumption growth rates would tend to co move across countries even when output growth rates do not empirically however consumption growth rates tend to have a lower correlation across countries than do output growth rates a phenomenon i call consumption home bias in this paper i discuss these two biases and their potential relationship as suggested by the literature

dynamic promotional budgeting and media allocation this paper address the managerial problem of promotional budgeting and media allocation in a dynamic competitive framework we develop an extended lanchester model that is able to analyze multi instrument promotion in an oligopoly the competitors each with a different initial position as well as economic value of the market share and communication effectiveness adopt the strategy of maximizing their net present value of discounted profits taking the other players actions into account the resulting differential game is solved using a novel method providing both the open loop strategy and the closed loop strategy for each firm we prove that our solution is a global nash equilibrium we develop a simple formula that when applied to an open loop strategy readily generates a feedback strategy we also show that for both open and closed loop strategies the proportion of the budget allocated to each instrument is invariant with time and depends only on instrument effectiveness we illustrate the results and provide several managerial rules and discuss their application in practice finally we show that our model favorably compares with other model in the literature in explaining actual data

monitoring moral hazard asymmetric information and risk sharing in procurement contracting this article characterizes the optimal procurement contract for a monopsonistic purchaser who contracts with a risk averse supplier with private information about his costs and who contributes an unobservable effort the costs incurred by the supplier may be uncertain and the purchaser has access to a monitor of costs that may be subject to noise that complicates risk sharing the purchaser prefers to respond to the observability problem with afixed price contract and to respond to the private information problem with a cost plus contract with uncertain costs and a perfect monitor the optimal contract relieves the supplier of some risk and the purchaser prefers that the effort of the supplier be subsidized with deterministic costs and a noisy monitor the optimal contract places risk on the supplier and the purchaser may prefer that the effort of the supplier be taxed procurement of goods and services is an important form of economic exchange that is often characterized by bargaining and contracting rather than by exchange in a competitive market the procurement setting analyzed here corresponds to the case in which the purchaser is a monopsonist who contracts with a single supplier as in the case of the department of defense contracting for the delivery of a military system in such a setting a principalagent model may be a reasonable representation of the relationship between the purchaser and the supplier and the economics of the procurement arrangement is then captured in the contract when the item procured is standardized the relevant information is likely to be common knowledge and risk may be minimal in such a case a fixed price contract may satisfactorily resolve the purchaser s contracting problem in contrast the model considered here is intended to represent the procurement of a nonstandardized item about which information is incomplete costs are uncertain and observability of supplier costs by the purchaser is limited procurement thus is complicated by the conjunction of adverse selection risk sharing and moral hazard problems

migration and foreign aid when it comes to linkages between migration and the global allocation of foreign development assistance the size of the immigrant population from a recipient country residing in a donor country is an important determinant of dyadic aid commitments two complementary hypotheses probe this relationship first donors use foreign aid to achieve their broader immigration goals targeting migrant sending areas to increase development and decrease the demand for entry into the donor country second migrants already residing in the donor country mobilize to lobby for additional aid for their homeland empirical tests on a large sample of country pairs made up of twenty two donors and more than 150 recipients over the period 1993 to 2008 show robust support for these hypotheses

the role of relocation mobility in tax and subsidy competition abstract in this paper we analyse the role of relocation mobility in tax and subsidy competition our primary result is that increasing mobility of firms leads to increasing net tax revenues under plausible assumptions while enhanced relocation mobility intensifies tax competition it weakens subsidy competition the resulting fall in government subsidy payments can overcompensate the decline in tax revenues leading to a rise in net tax revenues interestingly the opportunity costs of subsidy competition can rise along with net tax revenues we derive these conclusions in a model in which two governments are first engaged in subsidy competition and thereafter in tax competition and firms locate and potentially relocate in response to successive policy choices on taxes and subsidies

human capital depletion human capital formation and migration a blessing or a curse abstract we specify conditions under which a strictly positive probability of employment in a foreign country raises the level of human capital formed by optimizing workers in the home country while some workers migrate taking along more human capital than if they had migrated without factoring in the possibility of migration a form of brain drain other workers stay at home with more human capital than they would have formed in the absence of the possibility of migration a form of brain gain

immigration and trade creation econometric evidence from canada immigrants may expand trade with their country of origin owing to superior knowledge of or preferential access to market opportunities the authors test this proposition using canadian trade data with 136 partners from 1980 to 1992 in an augmented gravity equation they find that a 10 percent increase in immigrants is associated with a 1 percent increase in canadian exports to the immigrant s home country and a 3 percent increase in imports they also find that among the primary categories of immigrants independents have the greater influence on trade immigration via the entrepreneur class appears to have less impact on trade than all other classes except refugees

quality vs quantity in military procurement it is often argued that the same expenditures on military procurement would produce a more effective defense if larger numbers of less sophisticated and thus cheaper weapons were purchased this paper shows that such a result can occur even if the military derives no private consumption value from technically sophisticated weapons rather the organization of the decision making process itself can produce this result this suggests some possible solutions through organizing decision making in a different fashion copyright 1990 by american economic association

investigating the sensitivity of equilibrium profits to advertising dynamics and competitive effects the author investigates the validity of the flat maximum principle the insensitivity of a firm s profits to changes in its optimal advertising level in a duopolistic market in which advertising by the two firms has carryover effects two alternative competitive scenarios are examined i in which total industry sales are allowed to vary over time and ii where firms are engaged in market share rivalry for i the open loop nash equilibrium advertising strategies for the firms are derived assuming a specific sales response function and an infinite time horizon a numerical analysis of the sensitivity of firms profit functions to advertising expenditures is performed at different levels of the a discount rate b advertising elasticity and c advertising decay rate an empirical illustration from the pharmaceutical industry is provided special cases of the model formulation are examined analytically in order to highlight the intuition behind the flatness of the maximum and to study the sensitivity of results obtained to choice of equilibrium strategy closed loop vs open loop for the market share game closed loop policies are considered and the flat maximum principle is illustrated in the context of coke pepsi rivalry in the soft drinks market

the politics of foreign direct investment into developing countries increasing fdi through international trade agreements the flow of foreign direct investment into developing countries varies greatly across countries and over time the political factors that affect these flows are not well understood focusing on the relationship between trade and investment we argue that international trade agreements gatt wto and preferential trade agreements ptas provide mechanisms for making commitments to foreign investors about the treatment of their assets thus reassuring investors and increasing investment these international commitments are more credible than domestic policy choices because reneging on them is more costly statistical analyses for 122 developing countries from 1970 to 2000 support this argument developing countries that belong to the wto and participate in more ptas experience greater fdi inflows than otherwise controlling for many factors including domestic policy preferences and taking into account possible endogeneity joining international trade agreements allows developing countries to attract more fdi and thus increase economic growth

defying the law of gravity the political economy of international migration bilateral flows of international migrants exhibit tremendous variance both across destination countries and over time to explain this variance studies of international migration tend to focus on economic determinants such as income differentials or on social conditions such as the presence of coethnics in certain destination countries the authors argue that migration is driven not solely by economic or social determinants rather the political environment across destinations plays a substantively large role in influencing bilateral migration flows they test the importance of the political environment citizenship rights and the prominence of right wing parties using data on migration flows from 178 origin countries into 18 destination countries over the period 1980 2006 they find even after controlling for a variety of economic social policy and international variables that variation in political environments across time and destination plays a key role in observed patterns of international migration

optimal pricing and advertising in a durable good duopoly abstract this paper analyzes dynamic advertising and pricing policies in a durable good duopoly the proposed infinite horizon model while general enough to capture dynamic price and advertising interactions in a competitive setting also permits closed form solutions we use differential game theory to analyze two different demand specifications linear demand and isoelastic demand for symmetric and asymmetric competitors we find that the optimal price is constant and does not vary with cumulative sales while the optimal advertising is decreasing with cumulative sales comparative statics for the results are presented

a duopolistic model of dynamic competitive advertising abstract this paper proposes a differential game model of competitive advertising decisions for non durable products by extending the lanchester model and the deal model of competitive advertising in the literature the proposed model is compared empirically with the lanchester model for model fitting and forecast accuracy it is shown that the model is suitable for an actual market and out performs the lanchester model in forecast accuracy the model provides a sensible modeling alternative to the lanchester model for the study of dynamic competitive advertising decisions necessary and sufficient conditions for open loop and closed loop nash equilibrium solutions to the model are discussed a numerical algorithm for open loop and closed loop nash strategies to the model is developed

the determinants of cross border equity flows abstract we explore a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross border equity flows between 14 countries 1989 1996 we show that a gravity model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions gross transaction flows depend on market size in source and destination country as well as trading costs in which both information and the transaction technology play a role distance proxies some information costs and other variables explicitly represent information transmission an information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors and the efficiency of transactions the geography of information is the main determinant of the pattern of international transactions while there is weak support in our data for the diversification motive once we control for the informational friction we broaden the scope of our results by presenting some evidence linking the results on equity transactions to equity holdings

an introduction to the economics of immigration in oecd countries the share of the foreign born in oecd countries is increasing and this article summarizes economics research on the effects of immigration in those nations four broad topics are addressed labor market issues fiscal questions the political economy of immigration and productivity international trade extreme concerns about deleterious labour market and fiscal impacts following from new immigrants are not found to be warranted however it is also clear that government policies and practices regarding the selection and integration of new migrants affect labour market fiscal and social cultural outcomes policies that are well informed well crafted and well executed beneficially improve population welfare

analysis of global bifurcations in a market share attraction model in this paper we demonstrate how the global dynamics of an economic model can be analyzed in particular as an application we consider a market share attraction model widely used in the analysis of interbrand competition in marketing theory we analyze the local and global dynamic properties of the resulting two dimensional noninvertible dynamical system in discrete time the main result of this paper is given by the study of some global bifurcations that change the structure of the attractors and their basins these bifurcations are investigated by the use of critical curves a powerful tool for the analysis of the global properties of noninvertible two dimensional maps 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classixcation e32 m30

design competition through multidimensional auctions this article studies design competition in government procurement by developing a model of two dimensional auctions wherefirms bid on both price and quality and bids are evaluated by a scoring rule designed by a buyer three auction schemes first score second score and second preferred offer are introduced and related to actual practices if the buyer can commit to a scoring rule in his best interest the resulting optimal scoring rule underrewards quality relative to the buyer s utility function and implements the optimal outcome for the buyer underfirst and second score auctions absent the commitment power the onlyfeasible scoring rule is the buyer s utility function under which 1 all three schemes yield the same expected utility to the buyer and 2 first and second score auctions induce the first best level of quality which turns out to be excessive from the buyer s point of view

heterogeneous immigrants and foreign direct investment the role of language skills we investigate the interplay of language skills and immigrant stocks in determining bilateral fdi out stocks of oecd reporting countries applying a poisson panel estimator to 2004 2011 data we find a robust positive effect of bilateral immigrants on bilateral fdi provided that residents of the two countries have few language skills in common we find a similar effect for immigrants from third countries that speak the language s of the fdi host country making them potential substitutes for bilateral migrants our findings suggest that immigrants facilitate outgoing fdi through their language skills rather than through other characteristics like cultural familiarity

predicting advertising pulsing policies in an oligopoly a model and empirical test given that firms pulse in advertising should firms pulse in or out of phase it is shown that out of phase maximizes the oligopoly profits and is also the markov perfect equilibrium of the infinite horizon game the basic intuition for this result comes from the following fact it is more profitable to increase consideration when the competitor s consideration is lower evidence from several product categories seems to support this theoretical result

immigrant links to the home country empirical implications for u s bilateral trade flows immigrants ties to their home countries can play a key role in fostering bilateral trade linkages immigrant ties include knowledge of home country markets language preferences and business contacts that have the potential to decrease trading transaction costs empirical results for the united states suggest that immigrant links have historically been important in increasing bilateral trade flows with immigrants home countries copyright 1994 by mit press

pulsation in a competitive model of advertising firm s cost interaction the literature reveals contradiction between theoretical results superiority of uniform policy under a concave advertising response function and empirical results concavity of the advertising response function and the superiority of a pulsation policy to reconcile the above difference this paper offers a resolution based on 1 the concavity of the advertising response function 2 the convexity of the firm s cost function and 3 over advertising the resolution is reached upon maximizing the net profit per unit time over the infinite planning horizon subject to an exogenous advertising budget constraint theoretical results for monopolistic markets are found mostly generalized to competitive markets a numerical example is introduced to gain more insight into the theoretical findings and an approach is introduced and implemented to empirically assess the shape of a firm s cost function and the advertising policy to be employed

competitive advertising strategies and market size dynamics a research note on theory and evidence this paper analyzes competing firms advertising strategies in markets characterized by dynamic market sizes for new product innovations a large literature has been developed on the basis of the celebrated bass diffusion process which captures what we call market size dynamics however in spite of the significant literature incorporating competitiveness into the bass model few if any analytical results have been obtained especially those with normative implications on the other hand important theoretical and empirical insights have recently been obtained using the famous lanchester warfare model of competition in which market share dynamics are governed by advertising activities for mature products whose market sizes are typically fixed or stable our paper seeks to address the issue of optimal advertising strategies incorporating both market share dynamics and market size dynamics in doing so we seek to take advantage of the theoretical and normative insights currently available in the lanchester formulation for mature products to obtain normative analytical results on competitive advertising strategies for new product innovations whose markets evolve around the bass process we first obtain analytical solutions to the problem at hand and offer theoretical implications for competitive advertising on the bass diffusion model the models parameters are then estimated using a set of data on sales and advertising expenditures of polaroid corp and eastman kodak co in instant photography during the 19761985 period optimal trajectories for the firms advertising spending are then calculated and other marketing and managerial implications of optimal advertising strategies are explored

does the chinese diaspora speed up growth in host countries summary we compiled a new enhanced data set on the population share of overseas chinese covering 147 countries over the period 1970 2010 linking the migration and economic growth literature this article attempts to estimate the impact of the chinese diaspora on economic growth in host countries regression results from both barro type and dynamic panel data models suggest that a country s initial relative endowment with overseas chinese is positively related to subsequent growth results are robust to a number of sensitivity tests the effect is transmitted via increased trade openness enhanced investment and general tfp effects

pricing strategies in a dynamic duopoly a differential game model we formulate a differential game model for dynamic pricing in a duopolistic market firms demand functions are derived from utility maximizing behavior of consumers with the demand for a brand given by the logit model preferences for brands are assumed to evolve over time in the market in a manner akin to learning models postulated in the marketing literature we derive the differential equations governing the equilibrium open loop price paths over time and show that in steady state the brand with the higher preference level charges the higher price the formulation is extended to include the effects of consumer heterogeneity and equilibrium steady state prices are compared with those obtained when heterogeneity is ignored a comparison of steady state dynamic prices with myopic prices is provided an empirical example is discussed to show how steady state model predictions may be obtained from actual longitudinal purchase data

a model of advertising competition using a dynamic model of advertising rivalry between competitors in a duopoly the author obtains analytical results for the case of pure market share rivalry in a mature market a more general mod

reimbursing health plans and health providers efficiency in production versus selection the tradeoff between an insurer s or medical provider s incentives to select good risks and to produce efficiently is governed by the supply price analog to the demand price tradeoff between moral hazard and risk aversion under a variety of models the optimum supply price is a mixture of capitation and fee for service payments empirical literature shows that pure capitation payment leaves strong incentives for selection that are acted upon the presence of contracting costs in a rothschild stiglitz model means a limited pooling equilibrium can exist and that poor risks will not be at their preferred outcome

pioneers marketing mix reactions to entry in different competitive game structures theoretical analysis and empirical illustration pioneers marketing mix reactions to new entries are recognized as important determinants of the outcome of pioneerlate mover competition particularly in price inelastic markets such as those for pharmaceuticals cigarettes and luxury goods managers in such markets are interested in better understanding when to accommodate i e decrease marketing spending or retaliate i e increase spending in nonprice marketing variables such as advertising and salesforce in addition the reallocation of marketing resources toward advertising indicated by a pull strategy or salesforce indicated by a push strategy upon entry is strategically important to managers previous theoretical research shows that pioneers should retaliate in both static and growing markets results from empirical research are mixed in that they support both accommodation and retaliation in growing markets empirical research also shows that a pioneer accommodates retaliates with its low high elasticity marketing mix variable contrary to prior research however some pioneers have successfully accommodated late movers in growing markets and in some cases have accommodated with their stronger marketing mix variables and also retaliated with their weaker marketing mix variables for example bristol myers squibb s capoten accommodated the entry of merck s vasotec in the growing ace inhibitors market with its more powerful variable salesforce but also retaliated with its less potent variable advertising moreover not much is known about how the pioneer s marketing mix allocation should change i e toward pull vs push strategies in response to new entries we seek to better explain the pioneer s reactions and predict its shift in marketing mix allocation upon new entry we note that prior research s predictions on the pioneer s reactions are based on a limited number of key factors such as product market characteristics and the pioneer s elasticities prior to a new entry in this paper we extend previous research by adding two other critical factors namely the impact of new entry on the pioneer s elasticities and margin and different competitive game structures to better predict and explain the pioneer s reactions we develop analytical results on the pioneer s reactions in price advertising and salesforce in different competitive games both nash and different leader follower games in these results we identify the conditions under which the pioneer should accommodate or retaliate or not react to a late mover s entry and shift its marketing mix allocation toward pull versus push strategies we empirically illustrate some of the analytical results using data from a pharmaceutical category we show that a pioneer who adopts a follower leader role with respect to a marketing mix variable in a static growing market and witnesses a decrease an increase in own elasticity and margin upon a new entry generally should accommodate retaliate in that variable however we are also able to show that there are cases where these general reactions don t hold thus for example it is possible for a pioneer to find it optimal to accommodate in a growing market or to retaliate even when its elasticity decreases upon entry depending on the combination of competitive game the impact of entry on elasticities and margin and market growth in this way our results point to the fact that it is necessary to look not only at one factor at a time but instead examine the combination of all the factors we explain the empirical support for both accommodation and retaliation in growing markets by showing that the pioneer should accommodate retaliate a late mover with its competitively low high elasticity marketing mix variable competitively high low elasticity variables are not are likely to be significantly reduced by a new entry in the anticipated competitive game with regard to reallocation of the pioneer s marketing mix we show that the change in the pioneer s marketing mix allocation should follow the change in the relative marketing mix effectiveness after new entry this in turn depends on the structure of competition the impact of the late mover on its elasticities and margins and the competitor s marketing mix elasticities in addition to own elasticities the results can guide managers on how factors such as competitive structure changes in elasticities and margin and market growth impact the pioneer s marketing mix decisions and on when to accommodate retaliate or not react to a late mover s entry and shift marketing mix allocation toward pull versus push strategies

procurement and renegotiation parties bound by an incomplete contract have an incentive to renegotiate after acquiring new information the issue of the parties investment in the relationship before renegotiation is analyzed in a simple two period procurement model the firm invests in the first period it then learns its production cost and the sponsor learns its value for the project williamson s underinvestment presumption is shown to hold under very general assumptions about bargaining and about the ex post asymmetry of information as long as the firm s investment is not observable by the sponsor the introduction of a cancellation fee may well lead to even less investment contrary to what is sometimes argued the role of ex ante price fixing as an alternative way to reintroduce some form of commitment and the problem of cost overruns are discussed last it is shown that if investment is observable by the sponsor andthus may become a joint decision variable the two parties may choose to under or overinvest

a theory of combative advertising in mature markets with competing firms a common role for advertising is to shift consumer preferences towards the advertiser in a tug of war with no effect on category demand in this paper we analyze the effect of such combative advertising on market power we show that depending on the nature of consumer response combative advertising can reduce price competition to benefit competing firms however it can also lead to a procompetitive outcome where individual firms advertise to increase their own profitability but collectively become worse off this is because combative advertising can intensify price competition such that an advertising war leads to a price war similar to price competition advertising competition can result in a prisoner s dilemma where all competing firms make less profit even when the effect of each firm s advertising is to enhance consumer preferences in its favor given such procompetitive effects we further show that cost of combative advertising could be a blessing in disguise higher unit cost of advertising resulting in lower equilibrium levels of advertising leading to higher prices and profits we conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate how combative advertising by competing brands influences consumer preferences our experimental analysis offers strong support for our conclusions

on the superiority of pulsing under a concave advertising market potential function abstract the authors study the superiority of advertising pulsing policy turning advertising on and off in a cyclic fashion over its uniform constant spending counterpart that costs the same under the assumption that sales dynamics follow a modified vidale wolfe aggregate advertising model the authors show that pulsing can be superior if the product of the concave market potential function and the linear or concave advertising response function is convex in advertising similar to previous studies in the literature the average undiscounted profit over the infinite planning horizon is considered as a performance measure according to which alternative advertising pulsation policies are compared employing a well known data set relating advertising to sales the above convexity requirement is empirically supported and the superiority of pulsing is established numerically the performance of the proposed model is found to be superior to two rival models using a one step ahead forecasting procedure the analytical findings of the study are documented into six theoretical results for which proofs are relegated to a separate appendix managerial implications of the study and directions for future research are also discussed

advertising and intraindustry brand shift in the u s brewing industry the brewing industry has constituted a focus of interest in industrialorganization economics since world war ii due to its rapidly increasing concentration possibly large plant level scale economies and marked product differentiation accompanied by relatively high firm advertising intensities scherer 19 p 1 10 wrote concerning the dramatic postwar structural change which has characterized this industry

analytical models of competition with implications for marketing issues findings and outlook the authors review a representative cross section of analytical models of competition using a framework for competitive analysis developed from a marketing perspective models are classified by the

the effect of national culture on the choice of entry mode characteristics of national cultures have frequently been claimed to influence the selection of entry modes this article investigates this claim by developing a theoretical argument for why culture should influence the choice of entry two hypotheses are derived which relate culture to entry mode choice one focusing on the cultural distance between countries the other on attitudes towards uncertainty avoidance using a multinomial logit model and controlling for other effects the hypotheses are tested by analysing data on 228 entries into the united states market by acquisition wholly owned greenfield and joint venture empirical support for the effect of national culture on entry choice is found

the perils of unearned foreign income aid remittances and government survival given their political incentives governments in more autocratic polities can strategically channel unearned government and household income in the form of foreign aid and remittances to finance patronage which extends their tenure in political office i substantiate this claim with duration models of government turnover for a sample of 97 countries between 1975 and 2004 unearned foreign income received in more autocratic countries reduces the likelihood of government turnover regime collapse and outbreaks of major political discontent to allay potential concerns with endogeneity i harness a natural experiment of oil price driven aid and remittance flows to poor non oil producing muslim autocracies the instrumental variables results confirm the baseline finding that authoritarian governments can harness unearned foreign income to prolong their rule finally i provide evidence of the underlying causal mechanisms that governments in autocracies use aid and remittances inflows to reduce their expenditures on welfare goods to fund patronage

differential game models of advertising competition abstract differential game methodology combines two attractive features that are critical to the study of advertising competition dynamics and multi competitor decision making a focused review of two decades of differential game modeling of advertising competition indicates that insights gained to date while valuable are of a limited nature and research in the area needs to extend beyond present limits four recent studies are offered as examples of possible directions to follow in continued research

non economic engagement and international exchange the case of environmental treaties we examine the role of non economic partnerships in promoting international economic exchange since far sighted countries are more willing to join costly international partnerships such as environmental treaties environmental engagement tends to encourage international lending countries with such non economic partnerships also find it easier to engage in economic exchanges since they face the possibility that debt default might also spill over to hinder their non economic relationships we present a theoretical model of these ideas and then verify their empirical importance using a bilateral cross section of data on international crossholdings of assets and environmental treaties our results support the notion that international environmental cooperation facilitates economic exchange

institutions in international relations understanding the effects of the gatt and the wto on world trade the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt and the world trade organization wto have been touted as premier examples of international institutions but few studies have offered empirical proof this article comprehensively evaluates the effects of the gatt wto and other trade agreements since world war ii our analysis is organized around two factors institutional standing and institutional embeddedness we show that many countries had rights and obligations or institutional standing in the gatt wto even though they were not formal members of the agreement we also expand the analysis to include a range of other commercial agreements that were embedded with the gatt wto using data on dyadic trade since 1946 we demonstrate that the gatt wto substantially increased trade for countries with institutional standing and that other embedded agreements had similarly positive effects moreover our evidence suggests that international trade agreements have complemented rather than undercut each other an earlier version of this article was presented at the 99th annual meeting of the american political science association philadelphia august 28 31 2003 we thank tim buthe joanne gowa miles kahler andrew rose arthur stein richard steinberg and seminar participants at stanford university the university of chicago pipes the university of california los angeles the university of california san diego and the university of virginia for many helpful comments we especially thank claire adida ashley conner moonhawk kim erin krampetz james morrison mike nardis natan sachs rachel rubinfeld and jessica weeks for excellent research assistance we are grateful for financial support from the national science foundation career grant ses 0548285 to tomz the stanford center for international development and the vice provost for undergraduate education at stanford

institutional arrangements and the quality of publicly provided goods a tentative note there are considerable differences in the quality of publicly provided goods a simple model is presented to explain these observations by differences in institutional arrangements without having to rely on eventual differences in the relative preferences of bureaucrats and politicians

searching for the effect of immigration on the labor market we compare two approaches to analyzing the effects of immigration on the labor market and find that the estimated effect of immigration on u s native labor outcomes depends critically on the empirical experiment used area analyses contrast the level or change in immigration by area with the level or change in the outcomes of non immigrant workers factor proportions analyses treat immigrants as a source of increased national supply of workers of the relevant skill the different effects of immigration on native outcomes in the area and factor proportions methodologies appear to result from the diluting effect of native migration flows across regions and failure to take adequate account of other regional labor market conditions in area comparisons excerpt

keeping your enemies closer when market entry as an alliance with your competitor makes sense we present an analytical framework of multimarket competition and supporting empirical analysis to explain why and when competing firms in an existing market may prefer an alliance entry over independent entry into a new market our findings suggest that an alliance entry is more profitable than an independent entry i when the new market is larger relative to the existing market and ii when the competition in the existing market is stronger relative to the new market we compare these key predictions with archival data from the regional shopping center industry in the united states and find that instances of alliance formation in this industry are consistent with our model based predictions data as supplemental material are available at http dx doi org 10 1287 mksc 2016 0988

a note on feedback sequential equilibria in a lanchester model with empirical application we study in this paper dynamic equilibrium advertising strategies in a duopoly with asymmetric information structure and sequential play the advertising model of lanchester is used in a game where the relevant solution concept is feedback stackelberg equilibrium which is subgame perfect an algorithm is devised for the computation of this equilibrium and numerical results are reported and discussed using a data set from the cola market we obtain the resulting advertising strategies and provide a comparison with closed loop and open loop nash equilibria

information and capital flows the determinants of transactions in financial assets abstract we show that a gravity model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions our results support the hypothesis that informational asymmetries are responsible for the strong negative relationship between asset trade and distance this result is very important for theories of asset trade portfolio adjustments and home bias we strengthen it by investigating the roles of explicit informational variables as well as distance in explaining separately cross border trade in corporate equities corporate bonds and government bonds

harnessing the diaspora dual citizenship migrant return remittances political rights provided to immigrants by host countries have received much attention in the literature less attention however has been paid to the extension of extraterritorial rights by home countries in this article i focus on a common type of right provided by home countries to their expatriates the right of dual citizenship dual citizenship rights i argue help home countries leverage the financial and human resources of their diasporas encouraging both remittances and return migration i test this argument using migrant surveys performed in six host countries and find that migrants from homelands that extend dual citizenship are more likely to both remit and express a desire to return home the micro finding regarding remittances is confirmed using aggregate panel data for a large sample of homelands over the period 1980 2009 the results point to the importance of political rights and policies as extended by the migrant s homeland

optimal advertising strategies this paper considers advertising policies for a very general class of response functions it is shown that if a pulsing policy is used awareness or sales eventually settle down to a steady cycle and the average response over the cycle is a decreasing function of the length of the cycle when response shows increasing returns to scale it is possible in theory to use a device called chattering to replace the true response by a straight line which lies above the true response in the region in which chattering is used a numerical example is given to show how the optimal policy can be computed when part of the response is linear and the results obtained are compared with those of the best practicable approximation to chattering it is shown that the problem of maximising awareness or sales subject to a budget constraint is structurally identical with maximising profit after advertising with or without a constraint in either case it is possible that for part of the time the optimal policy involves chattering

familiarity breeds investment diaspora networks and international investment what explains cross national patterns of international portfolio and foreign direct investment fdi while existing explanations focus on the credibility of a policy maker s commitment we emphasize the role of diaspora networks we hypothesize that diaspora networks connections between migrants residing in investing countries and their home country influence global investment by reducing transaction and information costs this hypothesis is tested using dyadic cross sectional data for both portfolio and fdi the findings indicate that even after controlling for a multitude of factors disapora networks have both a substantively significant effect and a statistically significant effect on cross border investment

a maximin procedure for the optimal insertion timing of ad executions it has been recommended that dominant brands should not suffer from long periods with little or no advertising for such brands in a product category which is not subject to seasonality it is important not to let the minimum effectiveness level fall too low toward this end we present an analytical model for determining the optimal insertion timing pattern of a long run ad campaign which consists of a number of varying executions we develop a computational procedure to calculate the time between the insertions within a pulse in order to maximize the minimum effectiveness level at any point in time the focus of the procedure is to provide conceptual insights and on benchmark solutions which can reduce the computational burden of simulations rather than on providing an exact solution we also provide a theoretical justification for the two common economic axioms of nonsatiation and diminishing marginal returns in the context of an advertising model with exponential forgetting

on continuous time optimal advertising under s shaped response continuous time monopolistic models of advertising expenditure that rely on strict response concavity have been shown to prescribe eventual spending at a constant rate however analyses of discrete analogs have suggested thats shaped response convexity for low expenditure levels may allow for the periodic optima encountered in actual practice casting the dynamic between advertising and sales in a common format an autonomous first order relationship the present paper explores extensions along three dimensions an s shaped response function the value of the discount rate and the possibility of diffusion like response supplementing the treatment by mahajan and muller 1986 a flexible class of s shaped response models is formulated for which it is demonstrated that in contrast to findings in the literature on discretized advertising models continuous periodic optima cannot be supported further a set of conditions on the advertising response function are derived that contains and extends that suggested by sasieni 1971 collectively these results both suggest a set of baseline properties that reasonable models should possess and cast doubt on the ability of first order models to capture effects of known managerial relevance

an empirical investigation of advertising strategies in a dynamic duopoly the equilibrium profit maximizing advertising policies of firms operating in a dynamic duopoly are derived by linking in a single framework the econometric estimation of the market response function and the technique of differential games that characterizes dynamic competitive behavior we use the lanchester model of combat to represent the system dynamics that capture the competitive shifts due to investments in advertising by the two market rivals we determine the equilibrium advertising levels using both closed and open loop policies we also compare these equilibrium advertising policies for each firm to those obtained using an optimal control theory formulation wherein the advertising spending levels of the rival are assumed to be known the empirical results obtained by analyzing the advertising rivalry between coke and pepsi for the period 1968 1981 under the above three alternative spending policies provide some interesting insights into the nature of competition between these two market rivals a significant contribution of this paper is to extend the existing literature on advertising competition by integrating theoretical and empirical analyses

chapter 9 econometric and time series market response models publisher summary marketing has seen a rapid expansion in the widespread use of quantitative methods correlation and regression analysis were among the first techniques used as marketing research emerged as a discipline after world war ii in the early 1970s regression analysis became econometrics simultaneous equation systems could be estimated almost as easily as single regression equations while econometrics as a whole continues to flourish as new and more sophisticated estimation techniques and associated computer software have become available simultaneous equation systems have not become widely prevalent the dynamic structure of marketing variables themselves is addressed in the chapter followed by discussions of leads and lags among marketing variables and the assessment of the direction of causality dynamic properties of sales response functions have been discussed in more detail marketing generalizations that have been uncovered as well as empirical evidence on the shape of the sales response function is reported

product positioning under price competition this paper presents a consumer based methodology for new product pricing and positioning in the face of price competition the price competition is modelled as a nash equilibrium for which two complementary approaches are employed an analytical approach of duopoly provides qualitative insights into the competitive behavior and a numerical approach of general oligopoly provides quantitative solutions under a wide variety of market scenarios the optimal product positioning is formulated as a stackelberg nash leader followers equilibrium which can be solved numerically using recent advances in the field of variational inequalities a small example concerning analgesics is used to illustrate this methodology

an empirical study on the lanchester model of combat for competitive advertising decisions this paper presents an empirical study on the lanchester model of combat for competitive advertising decisions three issues are evaluated i the specification of the market share response model ii the effect of inflation on the estimation of the response model and iii the performance of competitive strategies it is shown that a the square root function that is used in previous studies is often inappropriate to characterize the market share response model b market share variations are more responsive to current advertising expenditures c closed loop nash equilibrium strategies are better competitive advertising strategies for firms to maximize profits than open loop nash equilibrium strategies and d finally general perfect equilibria nash equilibrium strategies developed by case are usually not good competitive advertising strategies for firms to maximize profits

planning media schedules in the presence of dynamic advertising quality a key task of advertising media planners is to determine the best media schedule of advertising exposures for a certainbudget conceptually the planner could choose to do continuous advertising i e schedule ad exposures evenly overall weeks or follow a strategy of pulsing i e advertise in some weeks of the year and not at other times previous theoretical analyses have shown that continuous advertising is optimal for nearly all situations however pulsing schedules are very common in practice either the pract ice of pulsing is inappropriate or extant models have not adequately conceptualized the effects of advertising spending over time this paper offers a model that shows pulsing strategies can generate greater total awareness than the continuous advertising when the effectiveness of advertisement i e adquality varies overtime specifically ad quality declines because of advertising wearout during periods of continuous advertising and it restores due to forgetting effects during periods of no advertising such dynamics make it worth while for advertisers to stop advertising when ad quality becomes very low and wait for ad quality to restore beforestarting the next burst again as is common in practice based on the extensive behavioral research on advertising repetition and advertising wearout we extend the classical nerlove and arrow 1962 model by incorporating the notions of repetition wearout copy wearout and ad quality restoration repetition wearout is a result of excessive frequency beca use ad viewers perceive that there is nothing new to be gained from processing the ad they withdraw their attention or they become unmotivated to react to advertising information copy wearout refers to the decline inad quality due to passage of time independent of the level of frequency ad quality restoration is the enhancement of ad quality during media hiatus as a consequence of viewers forgetting the details of the advertised messages thus making ads appear like new when reintroduced later the proposed model has the property that when wearout effects are present a strategy of pulsing is superior to continuous advertising even when the advertising response function is concave this is illustrated by a numerical example that compares the total awareness generated by a single concentrated pulse of varying duration blitz schedules and continuous advertising the even schedule this property can be explained by the tension between the pressure to spend the fixed media budget quickly to avoid copy wearout and the opposing pressure to spread out the media spending over time to mitigate repetition wearout the proposed model is empirically tested by using brand level data from two advertising awareness tracking studies that also include the actual spen ding schedules the first data set is for a major cereal brand while the other is for a brand of milk chocolate such advertising tracking studies are now a common and popular means for evaluating advertising effectiveness in many markets e g millward brown narketmind in the empirical tests the model parameters are estimated by using the kalman filter procedure which is eminently suited for dynamic models because it attends to the intertemporal dependencies in awareness build up and decay via the use of conditional densities the estimated parameters are statistically significant have the expected signs and are meaningful from both theoretical and managerial viewpoints the proposed model fits both the data sets rather well and better than several well known advertising models namely the vidale wolfe brandaid litmus and trackermodels but not decisively better than the nerlove arrow model however unlike the nerlove arrow model the proposed model yields different total awareness for different strategies of spending the same fixed budget thus allowing media planners to discriminate among several media schedules given the empirical support for the model the paper presents an implementable approach for utilizing it to evaluate large numbers of alternative media schedules and determine the best set of media schedules for consideration in media planning this approach is based on an algorithm that combines a genetic algorithm with the kalman filter procedure the paper presents the results of applying this approach in the case studies of the cereal and milk chocolate brands the form of the best advertising spending strategies in each case was a pulsing strategy and there were many schedules that were an improvement over the media schedule actually used in each campaign

cultural distance and the us immigrant trade link using data from the world and the european values surveys we calculate cultural distances between the us and 54 immigrant home countries and examine the influences of cultural distance and immigrant populations on us imports from and exports to immigrants home countries during the years 1997 2004 our study indicates that for both us imports and exports the trade enhancing effect of immigrants partially offsets the trade inhibiting effect of cultural distance further decomposing our measure of cultural distance into two component dimensions and revisiting the immigrant trade relationship we find significant variation in the extent to which immigrants counter the trade inhibiting influences of the underlying dimensions of culture for both us imports and exports our findings have the implication that by countering the trade inhibiting influences of cultural differences between their home and host countries immigrants exert pro development effects

the impact of capital structure on advertising competition an empirical study this article examines the interaction between capital structure and advertising competition using a sample of firms that raise significant amounts of capital we find that firms whose financial leverage has decreased as a result of their new funding increase their advertising significantly more than firms whose leverage has increased we also find that these firms industry rivals respond less aggressively with their own advertising when they have more debt in their capital structure overall our results support the view that financial leverage has a dampening effect on the intensity with which a firm chooses to compete in the product market

egalitarianism and international investment abstract this study identifies how country differences on a key cultural dimension egalitarianism influence international investment flows a society s cultural orientation toward egalitarianism is manifested by intolerance for abuses of market and political power and a desire for protecting less powerful actors we show egalitarianism to be based on exogenous factors including social fractionalization dominant religion circa 1900 and war experience from the 19th century we find a robust influence of egalitarianism distance on cross national flows of bond and equity issuances syndicated loans and mergers and acquisitions an informal cultural institution largely determined a century or more ago egalitarianism exercises its effect on international investment via an associated set of consistent contemporary policy choices but even after controlling for these associated policy choices egalitarianism continues to exercise a direct effect on cross border investment flows likely through its direct influence on managers daily business conduct

migration and cross border financial flows migration facilitates the flow of information between countries thereby reducing informational frictions that potentially hamper cross country financial flows using a gravity model migration is found to be highly correlated with financial flows from the migrant s host country to her home country the correlation is strongest where information problems are more acute e g between culturally more distant countries for asset types that are more informational sensitive and for the type of migrants that are most able to enhance the flow of information on their home countries namely skilled migrants these differential effects are interpreted as evidence for the role of migration in reducing information frictions between countries

migrants ancestors and foreign investments we use 130 years of data on historical migrations to the u s to show a causal effect of the ancestry composition of u s counties on foreign direct investment fdi sent and received by local firms to isolate the causal effect of ancestry on fdi we build a simple reduced form model of migrations migrations from a foreign country to a u s county at a given time depend on 1 a push factor causing emigration from that foreign country to the entire u s and 2 a pull factor causing immigration from all origins into that u s county the interaction between time series variation in origin specific push factors and destination specific pull factors generates quasi random variation in the allocation of migrants across u s counties we find that doubling the number of residents with ancestry from a given foreign country relative to the mean increases the probability that at least one local firm engages in fdi with that country by 4 percentage points we present evidence that this effect is primarily driven by a reduction in information frictions and not by better contract enforcement taste similarities or a convergence in factor endowments

dynamic advertising strategies of competing durable good producers this work develops a diffusion model which incorporates word of mouth and advertising effects for two firms introducing competing brands of a new durable product the competition between the two firms is formulated as a two player nonzero sum markovian game the firms are assumed to behave noncooperatively in choosing their advertising strategies and the solution concept is a nash noncooperative equilibrium optimal advertising policies for this stochastic closed loop control problem are obtained via dynamic programming our results indicate that both firms will start with high advertising outlays which will get reduced as the number of adopters increases this is similar to the result obtained previously for a monopolist further we find that there is a significant value in being the first brand to the market and the greater the intensity of word of mouth effects the greater the value in being first the first entrant advantage is due to the goodwill generated by its stock of previous adopters this first entrant advantage can only be overcome if the second entrant enters with a superior brand which is more enthusiastically endorsed by its adopters

markov perfect equilibrium advertising strategies of lanchester duopoly model a technical note we propose a numerical approach to compute stationary markov perfect nash equilibrium advertising strategies of the lanchester model the algorithm can be implemented using a standard mathematical package and importantly it does not require that the players discount their future earnings at a zero rate an assumption that has been made in the literature

recent developments in dynamic advertising research a variety of continuous time differential functions have been developed to investigate dynamic advertising problems in business and economics fields since major dynamic models appearing before 1995 have been reviewed by a few survey papers we provide a comprehensive review of the dynamic advertising models published after 1995 which are classified into six categories i nerlove arrow model and its extensions ii vidale wolfe model and its extensions iii lanchester model and its extensions iv the diffusion models v dynamic advertising competition models with other attributes and vi empirical studies for dynamic advertising problems for each category we first briefly summarize major relevant before 1995 models and then discuss major after 1995 models in details we find that the dynamic models reviewed in this paper have been extensively used to analyze various advertising problems in the monopoly duopoly oligopoly and supply chain systems our review reveals that the diffusion models have not been used to analyze advertising problems in supply chain operations which may be a research direction in the future moreover we learn from our review that very few publications regarding dynamic advertising problems have considered the supply chain competition we also find that very few researchers have used the diffusion model to investigate the dynamic advertising problems with product quality as a decision variable and the pricing decision has not been incorporated into any extant lanchester model the paper ends with a summary of our review and suggestions on possible research directions in the future

on the generalizability of advertising pulsation monopoly results to an oligopoly this paper introduces for the first time an analytical framework for modeling and analyzing sales response to advertising pulsation for competitive markets of mature products in continuous time for discrete piecewise policies that allow unequal cycle lengths employing a nash equilibrium solution concept this study supported with numerical analysis demonstrates that there is an oligopolistic as opposed to a monopolistic justification for advertising at a constant rate in the presence of concave response functions or advertising according to a pulsing policy in the presence of s shaped response functions the article employs a modeling framework whereby each of a set of competitors responses to advertising spending is governed mainly by lanchester type response is used to analyze the game resulting from cyclical advertising policies that are strictly adhered to by all players a non discounted averaged performance is used to assess the purported optimality of different variants of piecewise constant policies

empirical analysis of closed loop duopoly advertising strategies closed loop perfect equilibria in a lanchester duopoly differential game of advertising competition are used as the basis for empirical investigation two systems of simultaneous nonlinear equations are formed one from a general lanchester model and one from a constrained model two empirical applications are conducted in one involving coca cola and pepsi cola a formal statistical testing procedure is used to detect whether closed loop equilibrium advertising strategies are used by the competitors rather than open loop strategies in the second application involving anheuser busch and miller the general model is estimated results indicate that closed loop equilibria better explain dynamic advertising competition than do open loop equilibria also closed loop equilibrium advertising strategies implied by model estimates show that competitive advertising levels may or may not be monotonic in market share

oligopoly models for optimal advertising when production costs obey a learning curve business policy questions frequently involve competitive encounters among several different firms oligopoly theory in economics was devised to answer similar questions but its results so far are largely confined to cases of monopoly one firm duopoly two firms and many firms wheat farmers the cases with n firms where 3 n 10 are of great interest to business policy but are rarely treated in the economics literature because of their extreme difficulty the natural mathematical model for studying such questions is the theory of differential games originally devised by r isaacs isaacs r 1975 differential games robert e krieger publishing co huntington new york originally published by john wiley sons new york 1965 for pursuer evader games later it was extended by j case case j h 1979 economics and the competitive process new york university press new york to nonzero sum differential games for application to questions of economic competition the problem of characterizing an optimal advertising policy over time is an important question in the field of marketing it is especially important during the period of the introduction of a new product and it is also during this time that the production learning curve phenomenon is most pronounced in this paper we study oligopoly models which combine elements of bass s demand growth model bass f m 1969 a new product growth model for consumer durables management sci 15 january 215 227 the vidale wolfe vidale m l h b wolfe 1957 an operations research study of sales response to advertising oper res 5 370 381 and ozga ozga s 1960 imperfect markets through lack of knowledge quart j econom 74 29 52 advertising models with linear or quadratic costs and the production learning curve hirschmann w p 1964 profit from the learning curve harvard bus rev 42 january february 125 139 the boston consulting group 1972 perspectives on experience the boston consulting group boston in the monopoly case n 1 the optimal advertising function is derived by applying green s theorem in the duopoly n 2 and triopoly n 3 cases we use discrete differential game models and find nash equilibrium solutions in each of these models the form of the optimal policy is easy to find but because of the complicated nature of the resulting differential equations closed form solutions for the optimal state and control trajectories are impossible to find hence we use a computer to compute these optimal trajectories and plot them for various parameter settings because 13n parameters must be chosen to define a model with n players a complete search of the parameter space is clearly impossible we content ourselves in this paper with presenting computer plots of four different interesting encounters of the triopoly model our methods can be extended to work just as well for competitive encounters among n players where 1 n 10 we believe that in this paper we have opened up the way to studying oligopoly theory with a small number of participants and under widely varying conditions although the lack of closed form solutions may disappoint some readers we feel that the easy availability of graphical solutions is a more than adequate substitute

immigration and welfare magnets this article investigates if the location choices made by immigrants when they arrive in the united states are influenced by the interstate dispersion in welfare benefits income maximizing behavior implies that foreign born welfare recipients unlike their native born counterparts may be clustered in the states that offer the highest benefits the empirical analysis indicates that immigrant welfare recipients are indeed more heavily clustered in high benefit states than the immigrants who do not receive welfare or than natives as a result the welfare participation rate of immigrants is much more sensitive to changes in welfare benefits than that of natives

immigrant remittances and the venture investment environment of developing countries despite the increasing importance of financial and social remittances to developing countries their impact on home country venture investing environments has been largely overlooked i develop a framework grounded in transaction costs economics and social knowledge theories to investigate relationships between remittances and home country 1 capital availability 2 new business creation and 3 economic internationalization my framework also accounts for individual and collective immigrant attributes that may moderate the impact of remittances on these alternative indicators of the venture investment environment analyses of immigrant remittances to 61 developing countries from 2002 2007 indicate that they increase general and more narrowly defined venture capital availability as well as broader openness to international trade remittances also increase new business start up rates when the developing country s public sector is sufficiently small positive venture funding effects of remittances are magnified when coming from immigrants living in highly concentrated communities but are diminished when coming from highly educated immigrants overall results suggest that developing country immigrants of varying backgrounds play an important role in venture funding founding and integration with the world economy