finance and growth in a bank based economy is it quantity or quality that matters abstract most finance growth studies approximate the size of financial systems rather than the quality of intermediation to explain economic growth differentials furthermore the neglect of systematic differences in cross country studies could drive the result that finance matters we suggest a measure of bank s intermediation quality using bank specific efficiency estimates and focus on the regions of one economy only germany this quality measure has a significantly positive effect on growth this result is robust to the exclusion of banks operating in multiple regions controlling for the proximity of financial markets when distinguishing different banking sectors active in germany and when excluding the structurally weaker east from the sample

does opening a stock exchange increase economic growth we examine the connection between the creation of stock exchanges and economic growth with a new set of data on economic growth that spans a longer time period than generally available we find that economic growth increases relative to the rest of the world after a stock exchange opens our evidence indicates that increased growth of productivity is the primary way that a stock exchange increases the growth rate of output rather than an increase in the growth rate of physical capital we also find that financial deepening is rapid before the creation of a stock exchange and slower subsequently

absorptive capacity and the effects of foreign direct investment and equity foreign portfolio investment on economic growth abstract this study examines the effects of foreign direct investment fdi and equity foreign portfolio investment efpi on economic growth using data on 80 countries from 1979 through 1998 the results largely suggest that lagged fdi and efpi do not have direct unmitigated positive effects on growth but some data are consistent with the view that the effects of fdi and efpi are contingent on the absorptive capacity of host countries with particular respect to financial or institutional development moreover extreme bound analysis eba of significant results indicates that the estimates are robust compared to other empirical studies on growth

finance and the sources of growth at various stages of economic development this article studies the effects of financial development on the sources of growth in different groups of countries recent theoretical work shows that financial development may affect productivity and capital accumulation in different ways in industrial versus developing countries this hypothesis is tested with panel data from 74 countries using gmm dynamic panel techniques results are consistent with the hypothesis finance has a strong positive influence on productivity growth primarily in more developed economies in less developed economies the effect of finance on output growth occurs primarily through capital accumulation jel o4 g1

economic growth and institutions some sensitivity analyses 1961 2000 do institutions help explain macroeconomic performance this article addresses two issues first especially given the practical implications of the literature measurement of institutions should avoid tautologies and therefore this study uses econometrics to estimate the effect of objectively measurable institutions such as labor market organization financial development fiscal federalism and political regime type second the growing literature on these promising factors in turn is unfortunately incommensurable because previous studies fail to control for other institutional and in some cases standard economic variables given data on up to ninety four countries from 1961 through 2000 extreme bound analysis eba an econometric technique that addresses the sensitivity of previous findings to alternative assumptions about model specification suggests that some institutions associated with the organization of labor and capital are robust correlates of investment few data support the view that variables related to the organization of the state including fiscal federalism and political regime type affect macroeconomic performance without implication the author thanks richard nelson doug chalmers robert shapiro alessandra casella brendan o flaherty geoffrey garrett alexander hicks brett hammond mark kesselman the editor lisa martin and two anonymous referees for helpful comments also ross levine peter rousseau geoffrey garrett and torben iversen were very helpful in locating data the views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the board of governors of the federal reserve system or any member of its staff

the observed landholding fertility relationship is it monotonic empirical studies of fertility in traditional agriculture report either a positive or a negative estimate for landholding estimation with data from rural bangladesh in this study shows that the uncontrolled effect of landholding on fertility is positive however when the impact of pooling land in extended families is controlled for the effect turns negative yet the addition of a quadratic term for landholding provides a significantly u shape relationship the non monotonic relationship is analysed in terms of prestige cost of child labour which is assumed to increase with landholding but to generate differential child contributions to household income and potential old age support to parents

investor protection and equity markets we present a simple model of an entrepreneur going public in an environment with poor legal protection of outside shareholders the model incorporates elements of becker s j political econ 106 1968 172 crime and punishment framework into a corporate finance environment of jensen and meckling j financial econ 3 1976 305 we examine the entrepreneur s decision and the market equilibrium the model is consistent with a number of empirical regularities concerning the relation between investor protection and corporate finance it also sheds light on the patterns of capital flows between rich and poor countries and on the politics of reform of investor protection r 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

sensitivity analyses of anomalies in developed stock markets abstract the literature on anomalies in developed stock markets produces no consensus on specification this study uses extreme bound analysis eba to evaluate the robustness of 15 stock return anomalies given data covering 16 developed markets from may 1984 to march 1999 two factors are sturdy according to the extreme decision rule in the panel design d p and momentum under a less stringent eba criterion long run lagged returns country risk and the january effect are also robust time series eba for individual markets produces one robust result according to relaxed decision rules across a majority of cases long run government bond yields

the finance growth nexus evidence from bank branch deregulation this paper provides evidence that financial markets can directly affect economic growth by studying the relaxation of bank branch restrictions in the united states we find that the rates of real per capita growth in income and output increase significantly following intrastate branch reform we also argue that the observed changes in growth are the result of changes in the banking system improvements in the quality of bank lending not increased volume of bank lending appear to be responsible for faster growth

the public capital stock needs trends and performance the condition of america s roads bridges mass transit systems and water and sewer facilities has become an issue of increasing controversy one view holds that deterioration of this public infrastructure capital has reached alarming proportions and that a significant fraction of future national savings will be needed to reverse the damage of past neglect another view argues that there has been no sudden acceleration of decay in capital stock performance that better facility management can often substitute for capital investment and that attempts to greatly increase the size and condition of the public capital stock would place unsustainable pressure on financial markets state and local government budgets and the federal system of grants in aid how extensive is the capital infrastructure problem how did it arise given the many federal government subsidies available for state local capital expenditure how much of the national capacity for capital formation should be allocated to solving the problem if there is a divergence between actual and desired infrastructure capital can the gap be closed without disrupting the growth of other sectors and governmental objectives these questions are unfortunately much easier to pose than to answer there is only limited information about the size and condition of the stock of public infrastructure capital and much of the available information has been assembled from the perspective of engineering or planning needs standards needs assessments typically indicate the fraction of the infrastructure stock that falls below a specified and somewhat arbitrary level of performance or indicate how much spending would be required to bring the existing stock up to the specified standard while sometimes appropriate as a management tool infrastructure needs estimates are formulated in isolation from other public and private capital needs and are thus ill suited to the policy debate over national priorities despite significant data problems some general conclusions about the infrastructure dilemma are possible as a backdrop for these conclusions the first section of this paper presents an overview of the historical trends in public sector capital formation and infrastructure condition the following section discusses the factors shaping these trends with particular attention to the supply and demand components of the capital spending decision we then consider the question of whether existing trends will insure an adequate supply of public capital and address the issue of whether a reduced quantity and quality of infrastructure capital may be expected to reduce private sector productivity growth

change point analysis of the growth effects of state banking deregulation this article uses recent developments in change point analysis to demonstrate thatstronger income growth rates previously associated with state bank branch deregu lation were in all cases temporary rather than permanent in addition patterns oftemporal ordering across regions suggest that in many states deregulation was a re sponse to economic conditions rather than the reverse jel e44 g28

capital flows and gdp in emerging economies and the role of global spillovers abstract this paper provides a global analysis of capital flow impacts on gdp for selected emerging economies as additional control variables we also include currency reserves and effective exchange rates in our analysis we distinguish between gross and net capital flows and also assess the impact of both fdi and portfolio flows accounting for the fact that common factors have been the main drivers of capital flows while country specific determinants pull factors drive the response to such shocks we analyze shocks to country groups but consider country specific responses based on a bayesian time varying panel var framework in the spirit of canova and ciccarelli 2009 based on a sample of 24 economies our results show a robust positive effect of capital flows on gdp except for korea both gross and net capital flows display a positive impact for around two quarters the impact of effective exchange rates on gdp hardly offers an explanation for a possible transmission of capital flow effects with effective depreciations both positively and negatively linked to gdp we also find that the effect of net portfolio flows is even more positive compared to net fdi flows for emerging economies finally we provide evidence that the importance of global factors increases in times of crises

the financial development and growth nexus a meta analysis this is the accepted manuscript the final version is available from wiley at http onlinelibrary wiley com doi 10 1111 joes 12086 abstract

financial intermediation and endogenous growth an endogenous growth model with multiple assets is developed agents who face random future liquidity needs accumulate capital and a liquid but unproductive asset the effects of introducing financial intermediation into this environment are considered conditions are provided under which the introduction of intermediaries shifts the composition of savings toward capital causing intermediation to be growth promoting in addition intermediaries generally reduce socially unnecessary capital liquidation again tending to promote growth

stock markets and development this paper asks if financial development especially stock market development affects the level and or the growth rate of economic activity it finds a substantial effect on both current wisdom suggests that the growth effects of financial intermediation could be either permanent or transitory for instance the greenwood jovanovic 1990 henceforth gj model has an ak stucture with no diminishing returns to the reproducible factor and a permanent exogenous improvement in financial structure would cause a permanent increase in the rate of growth on the other hand if the returns to the reproducible factor did diminish better intermediation could lead only to level effects since one should not a priori exclude either growth effects or level effects we shall look for both our search for growth effects will use the gj model our search for level effects will rely on an amended version of the mankiw romer and weil 1992 henceforth mrw structure

is the glass steagall act justified a study of the u s experience with universal banking before the glass steagall act of 1933 removed commercial banks from the securities underwriting business we evaluate the argument for the separation of commercial and investment banking that conflicts of interest induce commercial banks to fool the public into investing in securities which turn out to be of low quality a comparison of the performance of securities underwritten by commercial and investment banks prior to the act shows no evidence of this instead the public appears to have rationally accounted for the possibility of conflicts of interest and this appears to have constrained the banks to underwrite high quality securities jel g21 g24 n22

why aren t countries rich weak states and bad neighbourhoods this article challenges a common viewpoint that the policy choices made by state leaders are central to explanations of economic growth it argues that there are two possible flaws in this viewpoint first that state leaders have a free choice in policy decisions second that it is policies that in large part determine growth rates using a set of variables designed to capture the weakness of the policy autonomy of the state and possible non policy influences on growth rates the article concludes that initial conditions are a better determinant of wealth and growth than free policy choice

foreign direct investment and total factor productivity growth new macro evidence although the role of foreign direct investment fdi in facilitating technology transfer is well known in the literature empirical evidence regarding the effect of fdi on growth is mixed the contradictory results in the literature may be due to the failure to account for endogeneity and for the abortive capacity of the hosting countries using panel data for 49 countries over the period 1974 2008 and the existence of investment promotion agencies in the receiving countries as an instrument our results show that increased fdi stock leads to higher productivity growth we also find a significant positive effect on the interaction between fdi stock and distance to the technological frontier suggesting that the ability of technologically backward countries in absorbing technologies developed at the frontiers increases as more fdi stock is accumulated

same financial development yet different economic growth why we re study the relationship between financial development and real gdp per capita growth in 48 countries what we find is an interesting evidence that only stock market development has positive effects on growth and that banking development has an unfavorable if not negative effect on growth we examine whether or not these impacts are a product of various financial and economic conditional variables our conditional variables consist of financial liberalization two sets of country development dummies crises in banking and currency dummies the creditor protection index as well as the anti director and corruption indices our results clearly show that the conditional variables of financial liberalization high income level and good shareholder protection mitigate the negative impacts of banking development on growth in contrast the conditional variables of middle income level regional latin american sub saharan african and east asian dummies banking and currency crises good creditor protection and higher corruption strengthen the negative impacts of banking development on growth next the conditional variables of middle income level latin american sub saharan african and east asian dummies strengthen the positive impacts of stock market development on growth whereas the conditional variables of financial liberalization mitigate the positive impacts of stock market development on growth last we find that the relationship between growth and bank development is better described as a weak inverse ushape this inverse u shape becomes stronger when additional stock market variables are squared thus financial development and growth may in fact be in a nonlinear form

is the relationship between financial development and economic growth monotonic evidence from a sample of middle income countries summary we revisit the relationship between financial development and economic growth in a panel of 52 middle income countries over the 1980 2008 period using pooled mean group estimations in a dynamic heterogeneous panel setting we show that there is an inverted u shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run in the short run the relationship is insignificant this suggests that too much finance can exert a negative influence on growth in middle income countries the finding of a non monotonic effect of financial development on growth is confirmed by estimating a threshold model

congestion function specification and the publicness of local public goods abstract this paper is about the measurement of congestion within the median voter demand framework the model of congestion traditionally used in the literature and four others are compared and tested in a median voter framework the results show that a more flexible functional form which imposes fewer a priori restrictions on the data does at least as good a job of explaining variations in local government expenditures furthermore it is shown that measured publicness of local public goods depends entirely on the a priori restrictions imposed on the congestion function

does financial development increase energy consumption the role of industrialization and urbanization in tunisia this paper assesses the relationship among energy consumption financial development economic growth industrialization and urbanization in tunisia from 1971 to 2008 the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration and granger causality tests is employed for the analysis the result confirms the existence of long run relationship among energy consumption economic growth financial development industrialization and urbanization in tunisia long run bidirectional causalities are found between financial development and energy consumption financial development and industrialization and industrialization and energy consumption hence sound and developed financial system that can attract investors boost the stock market and improve the efficiency of economic activities should be encouraged in the country nevertheless promoting industrialization and urbanization can never be left out from the process of development we add light to policy makers with the role of financial development industrialization and urbanization in the process of economic development

the causal relationship between information and communication technology and foreign direct investment this paper investigates the simultaneous causal relationship between investments in information and communication technology ict and foreign direct investment fdi with reference to its implications on economic growth for the empirical analysis we use data from 23 major countries with heterogeneous economics development for the period 1976 99 the results of unit roots and johansen co integration tests indicate variations in degrees of integration among the sample countries our causality test results suggest that there is a causal relationship from ict to fdi interpreted as the higher level of ict investment leads to increased inflow of fdi ict contributes to economic growth indirectly by attracting more foreign direct investment in developed countries there already exist a build up ict capacity which causes inflow of fdi while in developing countries ict capacity must be build up to attract fdi the inflow of fdi causes further increases in ict investment and capacity

foreign direct investment and economic growth an increasingly endogenous relationship summary this paper investigates whether foreign direct investment fdi affects economic growth based on a panel of data for 84 countries over the period 1970 99 both single equation and simultaneous equation system techniques are applied to examine this relationship a significant endogenous relationship between fdi and economic growth is identified from the mid 1980s onwards fdi not only directly promotes economic growth by itself but also indirectly does so via its interaction terms the interaction of fdi with human capital exerts a strong positive effect on economic growth in developing countries while that of fdi with the technology gap has a significant negative impact

productivity change in state and local governments a model is developed in this paper which allows the growth rate of public sector productivity to be estimated without an explicit measure of sectoral output in this model communities are regarded as generalized households and the goods and services provided by the community s government are interpreted as internally produced household goods the model is then fitted to quarterly data from the u s national income and product accounts and the rate of productivity change is found to average 0 50 per year for the period 1959 1979 the sources of growth approach to productivity measurement distinguishes between the growth in real output due to the growth in factor inputs capital labor materials and the growth in output due to advances in technology managerial practice and other factors related to productive efficiency the former are collectively associated with the movement along an aggregate or sectoral production function while the latter are associated with the shift in that function 2 in practice the shift in the production function is measured by the residual real output not attributed to the growth of the share weighted inputs and termed total factor productivity the sources of growth model is based on the underlying assumption that real output and real input can be measured with a reasonable degree of accuracy while this presumption is correct for many types of economic activity it is essentially incorrect for those sectors which produce services as kendrick 1982 has recently noted approximately one third of the real gross product originating in the service sector of u s private business economy is estimated using employment manhours or labor earnings such procedures systematically misstate the true growth of real output and thus systematically bias the estimated growth in total factor productivity the situation is even worse in the public sector in the u s national income and product accounts the output of general government is defined to be equal to labor input implying that the growth of total factor productivity exactly offsets the effect of nonlabor inputs a model is developed in this paper which allows the growth rate of public sector productivity to be estimated without an explicit measure of sectoral output in this model communities are regarded as generalized households and the goods and services provided by the community s government are interpreted as internally produced household goods this interpretation allows us to appropriate the analytical apparatus of the household production model and thereby permits us to estimate the key parameters of the model including a government total factor productivity parameter without first having to measure the output of the govern

the quality and quantity of bank intermediation and economic growth evidence from asia pacific we investigate the impact of the quantity and quality of bank intermediation on economic growth across 14 asia pacific economies over 2003 2015 measures of bank shareholder value efficiency as wel

financial markets in development and the development of financial markets what is the relationship between markets and development it is argued that markets promote growth and that growth in turn encourages the formation of markets two models with endogenous market formation are presented to analyze this issue the first examines the role that financial markets banks and stock markets play in allocating funds to the highest valued use in the economic system it is shown that intermediation will arise under weak conditions the second focuses on the role that markets play in supporting specialization in economic activity the consequences of perfect competition in market formation are highlighted

did fdi really cause chinese economic growth a meta analysis summary foreign direct investment fdi has been linked to economic growth in a number of countries productivity spillovers at the firm level have been identified as a key element in the process by which fdi stimulates economic growth moreover there is evidence of fdi related productivity spillovers in china whether these spillovers have been of sufficient size to affect growth at the aggregate level however is an empirical question we apply meta analysis to the corresponding empirical literature to find an answer our main finding is that the effect of fdi on chinese economic growth is much smaller than one would expect from a naive aggregation of existing estimates publication bias and a profusion of estimates based on less preferred study and sample characteristics have served to inflate observed estimates once these effects are accounted for the estimated effect of fdi on chinese economic growth is reduced to statistical insignificance this suggests that the cause s of the chinese economic miracle likely lie elsewhere

macroeconomic impacts of fdi in transition economies a meta analysis summary in this paper we conduct a meta analysis of the literature that empirically examines the impact of foreign direct investment fdi on economic growth in central and eastern europe and the former soviet union we found that existing studies indicate a growth enhancing effect of fdi in the region as a whole the results of our meta regression analysis suggest that the effect size and statistical significance of the reported estimates strongly depend on study conditions we also found that the relevant studies fail to present genuine evidence of a non zero fdi effect more research is necessary to identify the true effect

financial intermediation and economic performance historical evidence from five industrialized countries this paper examines the nature of links between the intensity of financial intermediation and economic performance that operated in the united states the united kingdom canada norway and sweden over the 1870 1929 period after describing the coevolution of the financial and real sectors in these countries vector error correction models vecms establish the quantitative importance of long run relationships among measures of financial intensity and real per capita levels of output and the monetary base granger causality tests then suggest a leading role for the intermediation variables in real sector activity while feedback effects are largely insignificant the results suggest an important role for intermediation in the rapid industrial transformations of all five countries

the effect of financial development on economic growth a meta analysis in this article we contribute to the current debate on the sign and size of the finance growth relation to this purpose we use a meta analysis with 551 estimates from 68 empirical studies that t

capital account liberalization what do cross country studies tell us capital account liberalization it is fair to say remains one of the most controversial and least understood policies of our day one reason is that different theoretical perspectives have very different implications for the desirability of liberalizing capital flows another is that empirical analysis has failed to yield conclusive results the answer another influential strand of thought contends is that this efficient markets paradigm is fundamentally misleading when applied to capital flows limits on capital movements are a distortion it is an implication of the theory of the second best that removing one distortion need not be welfare enhancing when other distortions are present

financial development and economic growth convergence or divergence abstract this study tests for convergence in financial development and economic growth by incorporating the interaction between the real and financial sectors into an otherwise traditional test for convergence the results show strong evidence for conditional convergence middle and high income countries conditionally converge to parallel growth paths not only in per capita gdp but also in financial development the mutually reinforcing relationship between financial development and economic growth is stronger in the early stage of economic development and this relationship diminishes as sustained economic growth gets under way as such low income countries with a relatively well developed financial sector are more likely to catch up to their middle and high income counterparts and those with a relatively under developed financial sector are more likely to be trapped in poverty this finding explains the observed great divergence between poor and rich countries another finding is that while human capital is more important to growth in the early stage of economic development economic freedom becomes more important in the later stage

regional innovation and spillover effects of foreign direct investment in china a threshold approach huang l liu x and xu l regional innovation and spillover effects of foreign direct investment in china a threshold approach regional studies using a data set on twenty nine chinese provinces for the period 1985 2008 this paper establishes a threshold model to analyse the relationship between spillover effects of foreign direct investment fdi and regional innovation in china there is clear evidence of double threshold effects of regional innovation on productivity spillovers from fdi specifically only when the level of regional innovation reaches the minimum innovation threshold will fdi in the region begin to produce positive productivity spillovers furthermore positive productivity spillovers from fdi will be substantial only when the level of regional innovation attains a higher threshold the double threshold divides chinese provinces into three super regions in terms of innovation with most provinces positioned within the middle level innovation super region policy implications are di

foreign direct investment and endogenous growth in vietnam foregin direct investment s fdi s contribution to growth has been a controversial topic in economic literature and appears to be country specific in this article we use time varying coefficients in an augmented production function and let fdi indirectly affect gross domestic product growth through labour productivity this approach creates built in heteroskedasticity so the feasible generalized least square estimation is employed the results show that fdi has significant and positive effect on labour productivity and economic growth in vietnam but the effect is not equally distributed among economic sectors

a theory of financial exchange organization abstract although there has been extensive research on the economic functions of financial exchanges and the properties of prices determined on exchanges there has been little research on their organization and governance the heterogeneity of the suppliers of financial services who are members of financial exchanges explains salient features of exchange organization when suppliers of financial services are heterogeneous one expects to observe exchanges organized as not for profit firms especially if an exchange can enforce collusive agreements moreover heterogeneity can lead to conflicts between members over rents which necessitates the creation of formal governance mechanisms finally if exchanges exercise market power or are protected from competitive entry as is plausible exchanges may adopt inefficient rules the efficiency of exchange rules depends on the degree of member heterogeneity the distributive consequences of these rules and the ability of exchange governance structures to enfo

the problem of population and growth a review of the literature from malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth abstract this paper deals with the evolution of the literature on the problem of population and growth from the classical period to the recent literature on endogenous growth and development the problem concerns two distinct issues 1 how to explain the observed covariation of the levels and rates of growth of per capita income and population size over time and space and 2 how to improve the human condition represented by these variables through an accommodating social policy the evolution of the literature we survey is reflected by the progressive treatment of key variables as endogenous rather than exogenous to the growth process it is also reflected by a shift from the historical concern about population explosion and its implications for growth to the more recent concern about the association between growth and population implosion in many developed countries

foreign competition domestic knowledge base and innovation activities evidence from chinese high tech industries using panel data analysis for a sample of chinese high technology industries from 1998 to 2008 this study examines how industry characteristics affect industry innovation activities differing from existing studies our research considers the impact of foreign competition on innovation activities at industry level in a large emerging economy the results indicate that the intensity of competition from foreign invested enterprises fies and domestic skill intensity affect industry buy and make activities foreign competition is positively associated with the intensity of buy activity but negatively affects the intensity of make activity further the findings show that domestic skill intensity weakens the impact of foreign competitive pressure on innovation activities our empirical evidence has important policy implications

the legal environment banks and long run economic growth this paper examines the relationship between the legal system and banlding development and traces this connection through to long run rates of per capita gdp growth capital stock growth and productivity growth the data indicate that countries where the legal system 1 emphasizes creditor rights and 2 rigorously enforces contracts have better developed banks than countries where laws do not give a high priority to creditors and where enforcement is lax furtherrnore the exogenous component of banking development the component defined by the legal environment is positively and robustly associated with per capita growth physical capital accumulation and productivity growth this paper addresses two questions first do crosscountry differences in the legal rights of creditors the efficiency of contract enforcement and the origin of the legal system explain cross country differences in the level of banking development second do better developed banks cause faster economic development that is is the component of banking development defined by the legal environment positively associated with long run rates of economic growth capital accumulation and productivity growth examining the relationship between the legal system and banking development is valuable irrespective of issues associated with long run growth first banks may influence the level of income per capita and the magnitude of cyclical fluctuations bernanke and gertler 1989 1990 second many economists stress that understanding the evolution of legal and financial systems is essential for understanding economic development north 1981 engerman and sokoloff 1996 consequently quantitative information on the relationship between the legal environment and banks will improve our understanding of business cycles and the process of economic development furthermore examining the causal links between banks and economic growth has both conceptual and policy implications on the conceptual front a long literature debates the importance of banks in economic development starting as early as bagehot 1873 economists have argued that better banks banks that are better at identifying creditworthy firms mobilizing savings pooling risks and facilitating transactions

growth effect of foreign direct investment in developing economies the role of institutional quality this paper investigates the effect of foreign direct investment fdi on economic growth conditional on the institutional quality of host countries we first develop several theoretical arguments to show that institutional heterogeneity may be an explanation for the mixed results of previous empirical studies second using a panel smooth regression model on a large sample of developing countries we show that fdi has a positive effect on growth only beyond a certain threshold of institutional quality to benefit from fdi led growth institutional reforms should thus precede fdi attraction policies additionally some reforms seem to promote faster marginal effects of fdi while institutional complementarities may lead to an incremental effect on growth

a new database on the structure and development of the financial sector this article introduces a new database of indicators of financial structure and financial development across countries and over time the database is unique in that it combines a wide variety of indicators that measure the size activity and efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets it improves on previous efforts by presenting data on the public share of commercial banks introducing indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial institutions and constructing measures of the size of bond and primary equity markets this article introduces a new database the first to provide comprehensive measures of the development structure and performance of the financial sector this database is the first to define and construct indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial intermediaries such as insurance companies pension funds and non deposit money banks it is also the first to include indicators of the size of primary equity markets and primary and secondary bond markets in constructing the database authors carefully deflate measures and match stock and flow variables

manufacturing growth and financial development evidence from oecd countries recent theoretical models conjecture that the development of the financial sector is essential for economic growth we investigate this hypothesis from a time series perspective and find that financial sector gdp is cointegrated for many oecd countries not so much with manufacturing gdp but mostly with manufacturing total factor productivity moreover this relation is in some instances characterized by long run causality in the sense of granger and lin however even within this homogeneous group of countries the variety of results suggests a more complex picture than is apparent from cross sectional evidence

some welfare theoretic implications of endogenous fertility this paper explores the implications of endogenous fertility for inter and intragenerational equity and for intergenerational efficiency considering equity requires social welfare criteria with respect to the issue of intragenerational equity 2 possible criteria in relation to the laissez faire solution are 1 total utility across generations and 2 average or per capita utility when population size is not fixed the 2 are not the same when fertility is not endogenous it is possible to consider noncoercive policies for achieving socially optimal population size or rate growth in general child allowances or taxes and subsidies to future consumption are sufficient to achieve the desired outcome with respect to within generation income distribution a system of child allowances and tax exemptions designed to alleviate poverty and reduce inequality may actually worsen the situation when both fertility and labor supply are endogenous discussing the issue of efficiency for members of the current generation does not require a social welfare function neither diminishing returns nor the existence of public goods unless financed by distortionary taxes leads to market failure from this point of view but the inability of parents to enforce transfers among their offspring or to bargain with the families of the potential spouses of their children may indeed lead to market failure finally the paper examines the implications for fertility of the inefficiency in an economy resulting from the absence of a capital market for transferring from present to future consumption in this case the welfare improving introduction of a capital market may increase the rate of growth of population when parents value children for themselves as well as a means of providing sustenance in old age

financial development growth and the distribution of income a paradigm is presented in which both the extent of financial intermediation and the rate of economic growth are endogenously determined financial intermediation promotes growth because it allows a higher rate of return to be earned on capital and growth in turn provides the means to implement costly financial structures thus financial intermediation and economic growth are inextricably linked in accord with the goldsmith mckinnon shaw view on economic development the model also generates a development cycle reminiscent of the kuznet hypothesis in particular in the transition from a primitive slow growing economy to a developed fast growing one a nation passes through a stage in which the distribution of wealth across the rich and poor widens

fertility and pension programs in ldcs a model of mutual reinforcement surveys of the determinants of fertility decline often include adoption of state sponsored pension programs among the many socioeconomic changes responsible for smaller average family size old age insurance appears in analyses of the western demographic experience pension programs have also been suggested as a policy tool that third world governments might use to reduce fertility 2 the theoretical literature on the pension fertility relationship has thus far emphasized the substitution of old age benefits provided by the state for help received from children and the implications of this substitution for the value of children and desired family size quantitative analysis of the pension fertility relationship has likewise proceeded in terms of the presumed impact of old age insurance 3 very little attention has been given to the possibility that pension programs might be implemented in response to fertility decline and to consequent shifts in the demand for old age security and in the ability of the government to finance such programs it is even possible that the pension response to falling levels of fertility could be mistaken for the assumed fertility effect of old age security programs our purpose is to consider and analyze both directions of effect the literature addressing the determinants of pension expenditure has not yet been linked with the literature addressing the determinants of fertility doing so will not only increase our understanding of fertility patterns but will make an important contribution to the study of how demographic demand factors influence social welfare policy for example aaron and wilensky have utilized the percentage of the population over 65 in their models of pension expenditure 4 although

investor protection and corporate governance recent research has documented large differences among countries in ownership concentration in publicly traded firms in the breadth and depth of capital markets in dividend policies and in the access of firms to external finance a common element to the explanations of these differences is how well investors both shareholders and creditors are protected by law from expropriation by the managers and controlling shareholders of firms we describe the differences in laws and the effectiveness of their enforcement across countries discuss the possible origins of these differences summarize their consequences and assess potential strategies of corporate governance reform we argue that the legal approach is a more fruitful way to understand corporate governance and its reform than the conventional distinction between bank centered and market centered financial systems

peasants procreation and pensions producers and consumers durable goods yielding a stream of benefits which are compared with a stream of costs births occur if the present value of the benefits exceeds the present value of the costs the theory has been used by malthusians to rationalize the casual observation that population growth rates increase during the early stages of economic development and then perhaps fall later on as

old age pensions and fertility in rural areas of less developed countries some evidence from mexico this paper reviews the theoretical relationship between old age pensions and human fertility and offers preliminary evidence from mexico on the direction and magnitude of the effect on fertility of the introduction of a formal old age pension system the security motive is an untested but plausible hypothesis especially for rural areas where alternative methods for caring for the elderly if they exist are likely to be relatively risky and unprofitable a number of different effects can theoretically be expected following introduction of a system of old age pensions in such areas including a savings reduction effect and life cycle effects such as effects on the time phasing of labor force participation and of consumption and effects on family fragmentation and intergenerational transfers and on the sex composition of the labor force and the allocation of family resources between the sexes information costs uncertainties about various aspects of the social security system and the possibility of differences between desired and actual fertility must also be considered given the long list of possible effects and offsetting influences and uncertainties about the magnitudes of such effects the actual outcome can only be resolved empirically data on sugar cane workers who began to be covered by a social security system in 1963 in 34 contiguous rural municipalities in the papaloapan river basin in southeastern mexico were used to test the relationship a regression analysis of the determinants of change in the child woman ratios in the 34 municipalities from 1960 70 indicated among other findings that the proxy used for the influence of participation in an old age pension system had a significantly negative effect on fertility an increase in social security participation from 0 to 50 would appear to reduce the child woman ratio by more than 1 10 despite the simplicity of the testing procedure shortcomings in the available data and the possibility of specification bias the results indicate that the security motive may be important and requires further empirical and theoretical research

remittances and financial development empirical evidence from heterogeneous panel of countries remittances are the second largest source of external finance after foreign direct investment in the developing economies in this study we analyse the role of incoming remittances on financial de

disentangling the demand function from the production function for local public services the case of public safety abstract in this paper we develop a theoretical framework and an econometric model which allow us to separate the effect of income and other socioeconomic variables on the demand for publicly provided goods from their effect on the price of those goods we apply our approach in a study of expenditures for police protection in a cross section of 73 u s cities and counties our results suggest that studies of public expenditures which fail to incorporate community characteristics in production and cost functions can yield very misleading results

the old age security hypothesis revisited abstract children s altruism toward parents is allowed in a two overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility parents raise children because when retired they expect gifts from their children who are essentially a capital good individuals behavior between generations is examined by analyzing a nash equilibrium which is then compared with a social planner s optimal allocation the pay as you go public pension program is viewed as the optimal gifts from the optimal allocation when the latter is implemented the effect on fertility of the introduction of a capital market is also analyzed the validity of the old age security hypothesis is shown to depend on the parameters of utility and cost functions

the impact of financial development on energy consumption in emerging economies abstract financial development is often cited as a very important driver of economic growth in emerging economies and it is thus likely that financial development affects energy demand this study uses generalized method of moments estimation techniques to examine the impact of financial development on energy consumption in a sample of emerging countries several different measures of financial development are examined using a panel data set on 22 emerging countries covering the period 1990 2006 the empirical results show a positive and statistically significant relationship between financial development and energy consumption when financial development is measured using stock market variables like stock market capitalization to gdp stock market value traded to gdp and stock market turnover the implications of these results for energy policy are discussed

are small stock markets different abstract recent literature has established a positive correlation between financial development and economic growth while papers such as bencivenga et al j econom theory 67 1995 53 identify potential nonlinearities in this relationship empirical research to date has allowed for only linear relationships this paper uses regression tree techniques to investigate whether the partial correlation between growth and financial development differs based on countries levels of financial and economic development as in previous studies growth and financial development are positively correlated in countries with high levels of market capitalization however this relationship does not appear to hold for countries with low levels of market capitalization

international financial integration and economic growth abstract this paper uses new data and new econometric techniques to investigate the impact of international financial integration on economic growth and also to assess whether this relationship depends on the level of economic development financial development legal system development government corruption and macroeconomic policies using a wide array of measures of international financial integration for 57 countries and an assortment of statistical methodologies we are unable to reject the null hypothesis that international financial integration does not accelerate economic growth even when controlling for particular economic financial institutional and policy characteristics

the pay as you go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device a paygo system may serve as insurance against not having children and as an enforcement device for ungrateful children who are unwilling to pay their parents a pension in fact the latter was bismarck s historic motive for introducing this system it is true that the paygo system reduces the investment in human capital but if it is run on a sufficiently small scale it may nevertheless bring about a welfare improvement if on the other hand the scale of the system is so large that parents bequeath some of their pensions to their children it is overdrawn and creates unnecessarily strong disincentives for human capital investment

is full banking integration desirable abstract we analyze the links between banking integration and economic development for a sample of oecd countries we measure banking integration considering indicators that merge not only openness but also connectedness with other banking systems we plug these indicators into income regressions also controlling for other relevant variables considered by the literature in contrast to previous initiatives this second stage explicitly takes into account the differing levels of economic development of the countries in our sample since the benefits of enhanced banking integration might not be generalizable to this end we implement quantile regression also considering the presence of endogenous regressors results show that bank connectedness is more important for economic development than bank openness but the combined effect i e banking integration overall is positive and significant the quantile regression models used in the second stage show that the effects are stronger for the poorest economies

cross country evidence on determinants of fiscal policy effectiveness the role of trade and capital flows this article studies the determinants of size differentials between fiscal multipliers in countries around the world both advanced and developing economies we introduce variables not considered b

the pattern of direct foreign investment and economic growth abstract this paper examines the relationship between the sectoral pattern of direct foreign investment dfi and growth using theoretical and empirical analysis the theoretical analysis suggests that different patterns of dfi because of their differential effects on the north south terms of trade and on southern technological development can be expected to affect growth in host countries differently the empirical analysis using crosscountry growth equations however is unable to detect any effects of the pattern of dfi on growth it is argued that detailed case studies of particular countries would be valuable for exploring the empirical issues involved

foreign direct investment regulations and growth this paper explores the linkage between income growth rates and foreign direct investment fdi inflows so far the evidence is rather mixed as no robust relationship between fdi and income growth has been established the authors argue that countries need a sound business environment in the form of good government regulations to be able to benefit from fdi using a comprehensive data set for regulations they test this hypothesis and find evidence that excessive regulations restrict growth through fdi only in the most regulated economies this result holds true for different specifications of the econometric model including instrumental variable regressions

an econometric analysis of the old age security motive for childbearing a switching regression for birth interval lengths with endogenous switching is developed to test mead cains contention that parents fertility decisions arise from lexicographic preferences for old age security the model is estimated as a survival model using malaysian data assuming that contraceptors constitute the group of parents who have attained the minimal number of children with which they feel their old age support is secure strong support for cains concept of old age security as the principal interest of those parents who have not yet attained a sufficient number of children appears in these data however the income effect accompanying the provision of alternative means of old age support generates an ambiguous effect on subsequent fertility excerpt

capital control liberalization and stock market development the authors address two questions what happens to stock market size liquidity volatility and integration with world capital markets after capital controls are liberalized and what is the relationship between those indicators of stock market development and regulations about information disclosure accounting standards and investor protection an analysis of data on stock markets in 16 developing countries suggests the following a stock markets become larger more liquid more integrated internationally and more volatile after controls on capital and dividend flows are liberalized b easy access to information about firms is positively associated with the size and liquidity of stock markets and c countries that officially establish internationally accepted accounting standards and laws to protect investors do not have substantially better functioning stock markets than countries that do not adopt those official standards

fdi productivity and financial development this paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment fdi on growth factor accumulation physical and human capital does not seem to be the main channel through which countries benefit f rom fdi instead we f ind that countries with well developed financial markets gain significantly

tenure issues in higher education the system of tenure that dominates american higher education has long been a source of controversy the institution of tenure has been attacked for entrenching a lazy professoriate more interested in attending faraway conferences and producing unreadable research than in teaching or developing practical insights while on the other hand it has long been defended as an absolute necessity for the defense of open intellectual inquiry the tenure controversy has been sharpened in recent years by several events the end of mandatory retirement which was abolished by federal law effective january 1 1994 has heightened concerns about the productivity and commitment of professors who received tenure long ago and who no longer have the same incentives to invest in long term reputation there is also ongoing concern over the steadily rising cost of higher education which raises the question of what students as well as the taxpayers who support public institutions of higher education are getting for their money 1 the idea that tenure is a wasteful institution for universities runs up against the puzzling fact that the commitment to tenure is one that academic institutions impose on themselves although the american association of university professors aaup provides a powerful lobby in favor of tenure generally colleges and universities most notably private ones are under no legal requirement to observe tenure constraints although as administrators we certainly feel the weight of those constraints our view is that a tenure system in fact provides important benefits to society and to colleges and universities we argue here that the role of tenure is

portfolio flows volatility and growth abstract we study the realized openness to portfolio flows of economically more developed and less developed countries as it affects future gdp growth outflows of a country s funds into u s securities are predictive of gdp growth suggesting that the benefits of openness outweigh local capital flight both inflows and outflows of funds via local equity securities are predictive of growth which is the evidence of the benefits of openness for less developed countries the effect of inflows is especially strong country specific volatility in flows does not detract from growth and volatility in world wide flows precedes growth overall the evidence is consistent with strong benefits of realized financial integration where the availability of u s markets for local portfolio investment along with equity investment from the outside enhances economic growth

explaining differences in productive efficiency an application to belgian municipalities the purpose of this paper is to measure and explain variations in productive efficiency of municipal governments in belgium technical efficiency is evaluated using a non parametric method based on the free disposal hull fdh reference technology we first calculate input output and graph farrell efficiency measures for a cross section of all 589 belgian municipalities in a second stage of the analysis we explain the calculated differences in efficiency in terms of variables related to the structural characteristics of municipalities and to the institutional environment

institutional impact of foreign direct investment in china summary we provide firm level empirical evidence that the presence of foreign direct investment fdi has positively affected the institutional quality of the host regions in china specifically chinese domestic firms located in regions with a higher level of fdi tend to enjoy a lower level of tax and fee burdens less arbitrariness in such burdens as well as better legal protection to address the potential issue of endogeneity we adopt the instrumental variable approach in addition we explore the specific mechanisms through which the institutional impact is materialized and provide various extensions of the empirical findings that offer further support for the fdi induced institutional improvement argument

intergenerational transfers and demographic transition abstract this paper presents an analysis of demographic transition based on the endogenous evolution of intergenerational transfers along an economy s endogenous path of development two period lived agents belonging to overlapping generations choose optimally their desired levels of consumption and fertility together with their desired sizes of transfers to both parents and children parents are more efficient than children in producing output but some parental time must be devoted to child rearing at low levels of development fertility is high and the flow of net intergenerational transfers is from the young to the old at high levels of development fertility is low and the flow of net transfers is from the old to the young these results accord strongly with empirical observations and the analysis may be seen as formalising for the first time a long standing and well respected hypothesis in the demographic transition literature

the 45 years of foreign direct investment research approaches advances and analytical areas what are the main tenets associated with foreign direct investment fdi what research has been performed in the area of fdi to date which direction should research in this field proceed in the days to come as there is no article with comprehensive coverage of all the studies on fdi we review empirical research in this area between the years 1970 and 2014 as an attempt to answer these questions we identify the advances and analytical areas of fdi research list out the impactful research papers and authors theoretical and methodological approaches leading journals and variables of interest that exist in the area of fdi research as the research into the fdi has advanced significantly over the last two decades we have also tried to point out the gaps in the literature taken together our paper highlights the heterogeneous nature of fdi across countries and firms

what determines output losses after banking crises abstract we examine the output costs associated with 150 banking crises using cross country data for years after 1970 many banking crises do not lead to contractions and most banking crises do not lead to large contractions a result that holds for developed and developing economies we examine which variables help to predict output changes after a banking crisis using bayesian model averaging for developed economies we find that the output losses are positively related to prior economic conditions such as credit growth for low income economies we find that other factors such as having a stock market and deposit insurance are more important

capital account liberalization financial depth and economic growth abstract we show a statistically significant and economically relevant effect of open capital accounts on financial depth and economic growth in a cross section of countries over the periods 1986 1995 and 1976 1995 countries having open capital accounts had a significantly greater increase in financial depth and over the 20 year period greater economic growth these results however are largely driven by the developed countries included in the sample the observed failure of capital account liberalization to promote financial deepening among developing countries suggests potentially important policy implications concerning the desirability of opening up the capital account

financial development and economic growth views and agenda this critique argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth the body of work would push even most skeptics toward the belief that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sideshow responding passively to economic growth many gaps remain however and the paper highlights areas in acute need of additional research

regulatory incentives and the thrift crisis dividends mutual to stock conversions and financial distress during the 1980s insolvency of individual thrifts and the thrift deposit insurer created severe incentive problems lacking cash to close insolvent thrifts regulators induced nearly 10 billion of private capital to flow into the industry through mutual to stock conversions we test a theory of how regulators encouraged capitalimpaired mutual thrifts to convert by permitting them to pay dividends rather than rebuild capital we estimate the costs of this policy and interpret the 1991 federal deposit insurance corporation improvement act as requiring regulators to impose restraints on depository institutions parallel to debt covenants that prevent capital distributions by nonfinancial firms experiencing distress

law and finance at the origin what are the key determinants of financial development and growth a large literature debates the relative importance of countries legal and political environment in this paper i present evidence from ancient rome where an early form of shareholder company the societas publicanorum developed i show that the societas publicano rum flourished in a legally underdeveloped but politically supportive environment roman republic and disappeared when roman law reached its height of legal sophistication but the political environment grew less supportive roman empire in the roman case legal development appears to have mattered little as long as the law as practiced was flexible and adapted to economic needs the law as practiced in turn reflected prevalent political interests after discussing parallels in more recent history i provide a brief overview of the literature on law and finance and on politics and finance the historical evidence suggests that legal systems may be less of a technological constraint for growth than previously thought at least at the origin