the causes of preference reversal observed preference reversal cannot be adequately explained by violations of independence the reduction axiom or transitivity the primary cause of preference reversal is the failure of procedure invariance especially the overpricing of low probability high payoff bets this result violates regret theory and generalized nonindependent utility models preference reversal and a new reversal involving time preferences are explained by scale compatibility which implies that payoffs are weighted more heavily in pricing than in choice copyright 1990 by american economic association

a review of wta wtp studies abstract willingness to accept wta is usually substantially higher than willingness to pay wtp these constructs have been studied for roughly 30 years and with a wide variety of goods this paper reviews those studies we find that the less the good is like an ordinary market good the higher is the ratio the ratio is highest for non market goods next highest for ordinary private goods and lowest for experiments involving forms of money a generalization of this pattern holds even when we account for differences in survey design ordinary goods have lower ratios than non ordinary ones we also find that ratios in real experiments are not significantly different from hypothetical experiments and that incentive compatible elicitation yields higher ratios

inventory and sales effort management under unobservable lost sales a retailer needs to make decisions regarding how much to order and how much sales effort to exert in an environment with uncertain demand one intrinsic complexity in a typical retail environment is caused by the fact that the retailer can obtain information about demand only based on sales as demand itself is unobservable taking a bayesian approach lariviere and porteus 1999 show that in such a setting a retailer should stock more to increase the probability of an exact demand observation in this article we extend their work by allowing the retailer to control both the stocking quantity and sales effort which can be used to affect demand we show that their insights with respect to information stalking carry over to this setting in addition our model allows gaining a better understanding of optimal sales effort strategies we find that demand management has a dual role in supporting information gathering while at the beginning of a product life cycle it is optimal to support learning effects by sharply reducing sales effort at later stages of the product life cycle an aggressive strategy of increased promotional activities can be used to harvest the information gathered in earlier periods

learning by bidding we analyze a dynamic second price auction with an informed bidder and an uninformed bidder who upon seeing a posted price learns whether his valuation is above that price in the essentially unique equilibrium an informed bidder bids in the first period if her valuation is below some cutoff and bids only in the last period otherwise an uninformed bidder bids in every period to optimally change the price unless the price is above his valuation or he is the high bidder this model also provides a rationale behind the use of a secret reserve price in private value settings

resolving differences in willingness to pay and willingness to accept reply gwendolyn c morrison 1997 raises a logical point regarding our experimental test of the divergence between willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept wta measures of economic value shogren et al 1994 she argues that our design does not provide a true test of the existence of a fundamental endowment effect since we did not control for the potential of a pivoting indifference map daniel kahneman et al 1990 she concludes that even though our ev idence shows that the mean wtp and wta bids for market goods with close substitutes e g candy bars and coffee mugs converge after market experience the endowment effect might still be alive and well albeit at statisti cally insignificant levels

framing and retirement age the gap between willingness to accept and willingness to pay summaryin a large online experiment we relate the retirement timing decision to the disparity between the willingness to accept wta and the willingness to pay wtp in the wtp treatment participants indicate the maximum amount of monthly benefits they are willing to give up to retire early in the wta treatment the minimum increase of monthly payments to delay retirement is elicited our results reveal that the framing of the decision problem strongly influences participants reservation price for early retirement the wta for early retirement is more than twice as high as the corresponding wtp using actual values from the german social security system as market prices we demonstrate that the presentation in a wta frame can induce early retirement in this frame the implicit probability of retiring early increases by 30 percentage points we further show that the disparity between wta and wtp is correlated with loss aversion repeating the analysis with data from a representative household survey german save panel we find similar results

preference reversals and the independence axiom of all of the paradoxical patterns of behavior reported in laboratory experiments one of the most perplexing for decision theorists is the preference reversal phenomenon a subject in a preference reversal experiment is typically given a choice between a lottery with a high probability of winning a modest amount of money a p bet and a lottery with a low probability of winning a large amount of money a bet the lowest amount of money for which the subject would willingly sell either of these lotteries is also elicited the most common reversal is for a subject to choose the p bet over the bet but to put a higher selling price on the bet preference reversals were first reported by harold lindman 1971 and sarah lichtenstein and paul slovic 1971 in discussing the psychologists discovery of such reversals david grether and charles plott remark the inconsistency is deeper than mere lack of transitivity or even stochastic transitivity it suggests that no optimization principles of any sort lie behind even the simplest of human choices 1979 p 623 this paper offers a simple alternative explanation of documented preference reversals an explanation that does not require the abandonment of the transitivity assumption

why farmers sometimes love risks evidence from india abstractusing a unique data set collected among farmers in india s semiarid tropics we document the surprising prevalence of risk taking behavior in the face of realistically framed high stakes gambles we hypothesize that this apparently anomalous behavior is due to a combination of credit constraints and nonconvexities in production in particular the high stakes nature of the gambles creates the potential for a farmer to undertake a productive investment that would normally be unaffordable and thereby move to a permanently higher level of income we show that the degree to which farmers are willing to accept risk in return for this opportunity appears to relate in an intuitive way to their current agricultural production technology as well as the demographic composition of their household

loss aversion without the endowment effect and other explanations for the wta wtp disparity abstract to learn why wta regularly exceeds wtp in economic experiments involving inexpensive market goods with ample substitutes the verbal protocol technique was used in a real cash experiment employing a random price auction results suggest that the primary reason for the disparity was subjects reluctance to suffer a net loss from any transaction whether purchase or sale and tendency to consider sale much below assumed market price as a loss this interpretation indicates a kind of loss aversion but not the kind envisioned in the endowment effect which maintains that selling creates a loss and buying creates a gain

value learning and the willingness to accept willingness to pay disparity the assumption that individual preferences are rational and consistent with standard economic theory is often appropriate but may be optimistic if consumers are uncertain about either their preferences or how the market operates both sources of uncertainty may present themselves in lab experiments exploring the well known disparity between individuals willingness to accept and willingness to pay this paper explores the role of value uncertainty in the observed disparity and finds that providing subjects with a value learning opportunity can reduce the value disparity to insignificance

a reference price theory of the endowment effect abstract the common finding that selling prices exceed buying prices the so called endowment effect is typically explained by the assumptions that consumers evaluate potential transactions with respect to their current holdings and that the owners of a good regard its potential loss to be more significant than nonowners regard its potential acquisition in contrast to this pain of losing account the authors propose that the endowment effect reflects a reluctance to trade on terms that appear unfavorable with respect to salient reference prices in six experiments and eight more summarized in appendixes the authors show that manipulations that reduce the gap between valuations and reference prices reduce or eliminate the endowment effect these results suggest that the endowment effect is often best construed as an aversion to bad deals rather than an aversion to losing possessions

pricing and the news vendor problem a review with extensions in the newsvendor problem a decision maker facing random demand for a perishable product decides how much of it to stock for a single selling period this simple problem with its intuitively appealing solution is a crucial building block of stochastic inventory theory which comprises a vast literature focusing on operational efficiency typically in this literature market parameters such as demand and selling price are exogenous however incorporating these factors into the mode l can provide an excellent vehicle for examining how operational problems interact with marketing issues to influence decision making at the firm level in this paper we examine an extension of the newsvendor problem in which stocking quantity and selling price are set simultaneously we provide a comprehensive review that synthesizes existing results for the single period problem and develop additional results to enrich the existing knowledge base we also review and develop insight into a dynamic inventory extension of this problem and motivate the applicability of such models

a test of the theory of reference dependent preferences eight alternative methods of eliciting preferences between money and a consumption good are identified two of these are standard willingness to accept and willingness to pay measures these methods differ with respect to the reference point used and the dimension in which responses are expressed the loss aversion hypothesis of tversky and kahneman s theory of reference dependent preferences predicts systematic differences between the preferences elicited by these methods these predictions are tested by eliciting individuals preferences for two private consumption goods the experimental design is incentive compatible and controls for income and substitution effects the theory s predictions are broadly confirmed

economic theory of choice and the preference reversal phenomenon a reexamination in a recent issue of this review david grether and charles plott 1979 hereinafter referred to as g p presented a series of experiments that show that individual decisions are made in a manner inconsistent with standard preference theory this inconsistency can be illustrated by the following example individuals under suitable laboratory conditions first have a choice between a lottery with a high probability of winning a small sum of money the p bet probability bet and a lottery with a high stake but low probability of winning the m bet money bet after indicating a preference for one of the lotteries in the pair the same subjects are then asked to place a monetary value on each of the individual lotteries grether and plott found that a large number of participants stated a preference for the p bet in the first round but placed a higher value on the other lottery the m bet in the second round this behavior a preference reversal is inconsistent with the traditional statements of preference theory

coordinating channels under price and nonprice competition this paper analyzes how manufacturers should coordinate distribution channels when retailers compete in price as well as important nonprice factors such as the provision of product information free repair faster check out or after sales service differentiation among retailers in price and nonprice service factors is a central feature of markets ranging from automobiles and appliances to gasoline and is especially observed in the coexistence of high service retailers and lower price discount retailers therefore how a manufacturer should manage retail differentiation is an important channel management question yet the approach in the existing literature has been to examine channel coordination under the standard symmetric contracting assumption that offering a uniform contract to all the retailers in a market will be sufficient for coordination i bring this assumption into question and ask when is it optimal for the manufacturer to use the channel contract to deliberately induce retail differentiation even if the retailers were ex ante identical in their cost and other characteristics the paper identifies the type of channel contracts that can endogenously induce symmetry as opposed to differentiation among retailers next the paper highlights a type of channel conflict that arises from the very nature of retail price service competition a manufacturer might find the retailers to be excessively biased towards price competition at the cost of service provision or vice versa the paper establishes when a manufacturer is likely to stimulate greater price as opposed to greater service competition among the retailers the framework that i develop to address these issues highlights the role of two basic types of consumer heterogeneity consumers are heterogeneous in their locations as in the spatial models of horizontal differentiation and in their willingness to pay for retail services as in the models of vertical differentiation the model also uses a natural relationship in retail markets between the travel time cost incurred by a consumer and her willingness to pay the more affluent consumers who have a higher willingness to pay for retail services also have a higher cost for their personal time given these market features the paper analyzes the problem faced by a manufacturer who sells to competing retailers the paper shows that the standard notion in the literature of offering similar contracts to all the retailers is sufficient only in markets with substantial locational differentiation relative to the differences in the willingness to pay effective channel management in these markets simply requires mechanisms that ensure that retailer interests are aligned so that they compete by offering a mix of price and service that is desirable from the manufacturer s point of view however in markets with small locational differentiation and substantial diversity in consumer willingness to pay the manufacturer s problem is not just to align retailer interests but to also use the channel contract to induce the correct level of retail differentiation this helps the manufacturer to better cater to the diversity in consumer willingness to pay and to prevent the cut throat competition that the retailers would otherwise have indulged in the manufacturer can achieve this through the use of menu based contracts menu based contracts induce differentiated retailer behavior despite the fact that the retailers are not forced into accepting different terms of trade this aspect can be useful in shielding manufacturers from litigation under the robinson patman act the paper also shows that for relatively high ticket items retailers tend to be excessively biased towards competing in the provision of retail services the correlation between consumer willingness to pay for service and travel costs implies that for high ticket products the competing retailers will focus on the more service sensitive customers at the cost of ignoring the price sensitive consumers in the market the manufacturer is therefore likely to encourage greater price competition among the retailers in contrast for low ticket items the manufacturer prefers to reduce price competition and encourage greater provision of services this provides an endogenous rationale for the use of price ceilings versus floors the basic model is also extended to consider the effect of upstream competition between manufacturers under upstream competition coordinating retail price and service decisions is not always optimal for an individual manufacturer this extension to manufacturer competition provides a basis for understanding the role of retail price service differentiation in the context of a channel duopoly it also shows that a mixed distribution channel a channel in which one manufacturer chooses to be coordinated while the other chooses to be noncoordinated can be an equilibrium in markets with weak brand loyalty

an analysis of household mobility and tenure choice an empirical study of korea abstract this paper develops a model of households joint mobility tenure decisions which improves upon the sole existing model in two important ways first the probabilistic structure is appropriately framed to capture the simultaneity of the mobility and tenure decisions second the model is based more directly on utility maximization theory an additionally distinguishing characteristic of the model is the fact that all independent variables in the estimation are expressed in flow terms this is done in an effort to more truly reflect their importance in the decision making of the household the model is estimated using microlevel data from korea the coefficients and derived elasticities are consistent with expectations and korean households are found to behave in a manner similar to that in the united states this suggests that the basic motivations underlying households mobility tenure decisions are invariant across countries

opportunity cost neglect to properly consider the opportunity costs of a purchase consumers must actively generate the alternatives that it would displace the current research suggests that consumers often fail to do so even under conditions promoting cognitive effort various cues to consider opportunity costs reduce purchase rates and increase the choice share of more affordable options sensitivity to such cues varies with chronic dispositional differences in spending attitudes we discuss the implications of these results for the marketing strategies of economy and premium brands

the censored newsvendor and the optimal acquisition of information this paper investigates the effect of demand censoring on the optimal policy in newsvendor inventory models with general parametric demand distributions and unknown parameter values we show that the newsvendor problem withobservable lost sales reduces to a sequence of single period problems while the newsvendor problem withunobservable lost sales requires a dynamic analysis using a bayesian markov decision process approach we show that the optimalin ventory level in the presence of censored demand ishigher than would be determined using a bayesian myopic policy we explore the economic rationality for this observation and illustrate it with numerical examples

tests of market outcomes with asymmetric valuations of gains and losses smaller gains fewer trades and less value abstract the pervasive finding that individuals value losses more than gains suggests that actual gains from trade and numbers of market exchanges may well be much smaller than would be the case if people s buying and selling prices were equivalent as normally assumed the results of two sets of costless market simulations using actual gain and loss valuations show that the actual gains from exchange and trade volumes are less than half of those expected with conventional assumptions and that completion of all pareto efficient exchanges fail by wide margins to shift entitlements to those willing to pay the most for them these findings suggest the valuation disparity has significant welfare implications and may be a major cause of market stickiness

exchange asymmetries in productive assets tools fertilizer or cash abstract exchange asymmetries in individual decision making have attracted substantial attention from economists since thaler 1980 referred to the phenomenon that losses are weighted more heavily than gains as an endowment effect and related it to loss aversion and prospect theory we used a field experiment to investigate exchange asymmetries in productive assets among poor rural respondents in ethiopia farmers were randomly allocated two types of productive assets tool or fertilizer or cash with a choice to keep the productive asset cash or exchange it for cash productive asset loss aversion was proxied with a separate experiment and was used to assess the importance of endowment effect theory to explain exchange asymmetries our study finds a significant exchange asymmetry and a greater exchange asymmetry for the more popular tool than for fertilizer loss aversion could explain a small but significant part of the exchange asymmetry in tools but trade experience did not reduce the exchange asymmetry the findings are relevant for whether to use targeted in kind or cash transfers to stimulate technology adoption and enhance food security among poor rural households the results imply that in kind transfers may stimulate input use or investments more than cash transfers

tenure choice and expected mobility a synthesis abstract this study employs a joint logit probability model to estimate the effects of a vector of independent variables on the household s current tenure choice and expected mobility which are hypothesized to be simultaneously determined in the empirical analysis it was found that the coefficient on the endogenous variables tenure choice and expected mobility is the most highly significant of all the coefficients estimated in addition in previous analyses the age of the household head has always exhibited a highly significant positive effect on the probability of ownership however in this analysis it is demonstrated that this age variable was acting as a proxy for the expected mobility and wealth of the household

how do landowners price their lands during land expropriation and the motives behind it an explanation from a wta wtp experiment in central beijing compensation paid to property owners for land expropriation is always a controversial topic partly due to the difficulty in revealing households true valuation of their housing this paper estimates and discusses the widely observed willingness to accept willingness to pay wta wtp gap for surveyed residents of their own houses during land expropriation by testing several hypotheses interpreting the wta wtp disparity from previous studies the paper tries to establish the incentive for households decision making the paper employs a contingent valuation method with data from 315 household interviews in central beijing china the paper reports an average wta wtp ratio of 3 74 and reaches the conclusion that in our case the high compensation required by property owners largely derives from opportunistic pricing behaviour rather than sentimental attachment to the dwellings that is unobservable in the market price and that the wta of the residents is intentionally overpriced

assessing farmers risk preferences and their determinants in a marginal upland area of vietnam a comparison of multiple elicitation techniques we examine the consistency of risk preference measures based on eight hypothetical elicitation methods and a lottery game applied to smallholder farmers in a marginal upland environment in vietnam using these measures we identify influencing factors of risk aversion via regression analysis whereby unlike previous studies we include several proxies of social capital such as social networks and norms data were collected from household heads and spouses separately in a random sample of 300 households although correlations between most of the various risk preference measures are all statistically highly significant most are weak on average respondents have a high degree of risk aversion and specific characteristics gender age idiosyncratic shocks education social norms network reliance with extended family and connections to local authorities are significant determinants of risk preferences across most elicitation methods whereas others the household s dependency ratio wealth and covariate shocks are significant in a few methods only the explanatory power of the models is limited indicating that other factors are likely to be of greater importance in determining risk preferences the results can help target safety nets encourage investments and lead to the development of more applicable methods for assessing risk preferences of smallholders in developing countries

monetary rewards and decision cost in experimental economics a survey of thirty one experimental studies which report data on the comparative effects of monetary rewards and opportunity cost shows 1 several studies in which increased rewards shift the central tendency of the data toward the predictions of rational models 2 in virtually all cases rewards reduce the variance of the data around the predicted outcome this is consistent with a model in which rewards are balanced against decision cost in agent behavior and explicates the argument that when rational models fail it can be attributed to low opportunity cost of deviations from the rational prediction

who actually decides parental influence on the housing tenure choice of their children we focus on the role of within family socialisation and the relationship between socialisation and resource transfers in the intergenerational transmission of housing preferences the formation of

neoclassical theory versus prospect theory evidence from the marketplace several experimental studies have provided evidence that suggest indifference curves have a kink around the current endowment level these results which clearly contradict closely held economic doctrines have led some influential commentators to call for an entirely new economic paradigm to displace conventional neoclassical theory e g prospect theory which invokes psychological effects this paper pits neoclassical theory against prospect theory by investigating data drawn from more than 375 subjects actively participating in a well functioning marketplace the pattern of results suggests that prospect theory adequately organizes behavior among inexperienced consumers but consumers with intense market experience behave largely in accordance with neoclassical predictions moreover the data are consistent with the notion that consumers learn to overcome the endowment effect in situations beyond specific problems they have previously encountered this transference of behavior across domains has important implications in both a positive and normative sense

a new meta analysis on the wtp wta disparity abstract this study reports a new meta analysis of papers that elicit willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept compensation wta measures of value for the same good we investigate the effects of type of good and several survey design features on the wtp wta disparity measured as the logarithm of the ratio of mean wta to mean wtp confirming horowitz and mcconnell s 2002 pioneering meta analysis we find the disparity is smaller for ordinary private goods than for public and non market goods that it is not solely an artifact of using hypothetical transactions or other weak experimental or survey methods and that it is smaller for studies using student subjects in addition we find that the disparity is smaller when subjects have experience valuing the good in real markets or through repeated experimental trials in contrast to horowitz and mcconnell we find the disparity is significantly smaller in studies using incentive compatible elicitation mechanisms the disparity is smaller in more recent studies an effect that is attributable only in part to changes in study characteristics

an experimental test for risk aversion abstract this paper evaluates an experimental method to measure attitudes to risk in individual subjects the method is applied to study the degree of risk aversion of 46 subjects the results lead us to reject a working hypothesis of risk neutrality for such experimental subjects

experimental tests of the endowment effect abstract the endowment effect which predicts undertrading and a willingness to accept greater than willingness to pay is studied using responses that remove all reference to buying or selling and focuses only on choice tasks the results significantly lower the willingness to pay willingness to accept discrepancy but the latter is still significant a high efficiency open display uniform price auction is used to exchange mugs for money since mugs are randomly assigned to half of 2n subjects n 2 mugs are predicted to trade less than n 2 mugs trade on average but more than previously reported the phenomenon exists but is less prominent than reported previously

how people respond to contingent valuation questions a verbal protocol analysis of willingness to pay for an environmental regulation abstract this paper investigates what a respondent is thinking when answering a willingness to pay question in a contingent valuation using a think aloud technique from psychology called verbal protocol analysis the willingness to pay responses we observed seem to be constructed from a variety of considerations including an obligation to pay a fair share of the cost of the solution and signaling concern for a larger set of environmental issues the finding that respondents seem to construct their values at the time they are asked rather than reporting a more well defined value is seen as consistent with over two decades of research on the psychology of decision making potential uses of verbal protocols in contingent valuation studies are also discussed

household tenure choice and migration abstract a model of the joint tenure choice and migration decision is estimated unlike previous work that has considered each decision separately or examined the premigration tenure status choice jointly with the migration decision this analysis addresses change in tenure status as well the empirical findings indicate that variables often thought to affect either or both tenure status of the residence location change decision have offsetting or augmenting effects on their joint probabilities which are masked if the decisions are examined independently

the endowment effect as self enhancement in response to threat the discrepancy between willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept wta for a product referred to as the endowment effect has been investigated and replicated across various domains because of its implications for rational decision making the authors assume that implicit processes operate in the endowment effect and propose an explanation that is derived from the two main accounts of the effect ownership and loss aversion based on the implicit egotism and self affirmation literatures the model argues that selling is perceived as an implicit self threat and that sellers as a part of their automatic defense mechanism respond to this self threat by enhancing the value of the self associated object five studies test these conjectures and provide support for the proposed model

percentage rent contracts between co stores abstract high rental rates and space scarcity in popular retail areas are encouraging retailers to share available space creating co stores co stores with complementary products enjoy a boost in foot traffic thus higher sales when the space is owned by one a common practice for retailers is to engage in a revenue sharing agreement we study the optimal design of a percentage rent contract between two co stores each having his her own random sales dependent on effort levels of both retailers since the effort level exerted by a retailer is often unverifiable it results in a double moral hazard problem we show that a linear percentage rent which is composed of a sales share and a based rent achieves the second best effort levels the landlord may also find it optimal to set a fixed rent by setting the sales share to zero with cobb douglas sales and power disutility of effort functions we obtain closed form expressions for the optimal contract we show that the landlord charges a high sales share for a tenant with low demand externality and a high sales scale the landlord is better off renting out space to a small but high revenue generating retailer rather than one generating larger traffic but with lower sales scale when the landlord s externality potential is low but he is successful in generating sales optimal sales share is low but the base rent is high the percentage rent can increase the landlord profit by up to 13 compared to the conventional fixed rent

estimating housing consumption adjustments from panel data abstract although time series analysis of panel data has generally not been used in the study of housing demand longitudinal analysis provides the opportunity to increase our understanding of housing adjustments over time in particular time series analysis of housing choice using panel data permits appropriate use of both time series and cross sectional variation in housing prices provides the opportunity to separate age and cohort effects and facilitates integration of mobility analysis with housing choice analysis in this paper a longitudinal discrete choice model of the choice of housing tenure and size is presented and estimated using panel data this conditional fixed effects multinomial logit model developed by g chamberlain is computationally convenient and successfully accounts for time invariant differences among households while household specific unobserved characteristics can be readily accounted for in a linear model this is not the case for a quantitative choice model the use of a model of the type employed here thus provides a crucial link between time series analysis and a discrete choice setting estimation of this model yields results with respect to age and price that differ from results obtained from individual and pooled cross sections this provides support for the plausible proposition that housing choices are intertemporally correlated and more importantly emphasizes the importance of accounting for this correlation to estimate consistently the parameters of housing choice models

household portfolio diversification a case for rank dependent preferences the proliferation of novel preference theories in financial economics is hampered by a lack of non experimental evidence and by the theories additional complexity which has not been shown to be critical in applications in this article i present arguments in support of preferences with rank dependency using the survey of consumer finances data i document two widespread patterns inconsistent with expected utility i many households simultaneously invest in well deversified funds and in poorly diversified portfolios of stocks and ii some households with substantial savings do not invest anything in equities i show that portfolio choice models with rank dependent preferences plausibly parameterized and under fully rational assumptions are quantitatively consistent with the observed diversification these results call for further efforts to integrate the models of rank dependent preferences in portfolio theory and asset pricing the decision theoretic literature has long acknowledged the shortcomings of the expected utility theory of von neumann and morgenstern 1944 several generalizations of the theory are inspired by the experimental evidence and aimed at improving its descriptive accuracy however there are few applications of new models of preferences in finance and expected utility continues to dominate the field 1 two principal hurdles slow the proliferation of novel preferences in financial economics first the lack of empirical non experimental or field data confirming that the behavior motivating non expected utilities is widespread outside the laboratory settings second the additional and often significant complexity of the alternative preferences which has not been shown to be critical in applications where the models based on expected utility fall short of reasonable predictions this article presents empirical and theoretical this paper was previously circulated under the title household portfolio diversification the paper has benefited from the comments of shlomo benartzi luca benzoni markus brunnermeier john dickhaut maria perozek raj singh hersh shefrin and workshop participants at minnesota finance bag lunch 2003 wharton conference household financial decision making and portfolio choice and 2003 summer meetings of econometric society i would like to thank cam harvey the editor and an anonymous referee for many helpful comments and suggestions a special thanks to jack kareken for comments and editorial help on an earlier draft i am grateful to donna zerwitz for editorial assistance the views expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of the federal reserve bank of minneapolis or the federal reserve system all errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the author address correspondence to valery polkovnichenko finance 3 122 csom 319 19 th

stalking information bayesian inventory management with unobserved lost sales retailers are frequently uncertain about the underlying demand distribution of a new product when taking the empirical bayesian approach of scarf 1959 they simultaneously stock the product over time and learn about the distribution assuming that unmet demand is lost and unobserved this learning must be based on observing sales rather than demand which differs from sales in the event of a stockout using the framework and results of braden and freimer 1991 the cumulative learning about the underlying demand distribution is captured by two parameters a scale parameter that reflects the predicted size of the underlying market and a shape parameter that indicates both the size of the market and the precision with which the underlying distribution is known an important simplification result of scarf 1960 and azoury 1985 which allows the scale parameter to be removed from the optimization is shown to extend to this setting we present examples that reveal two interesting phenomena 1 a retailer may hope that compared to stocking out realized demand will be strictly less than the stock level even though stocking out would signal a stochastically larger demand distribution and 2 it can be optimal to drop a product after a period of successful sales we also present specific conditions under which the following results hold 1 investment in excess stocks to enhance learning will occur in every dynamic problem and 2 a product is never dropped after a period of poor sales the model is extended to multiple independent markets whose distributions depend proportionately on a single unknown parameter we argue that smaller markets should be given better service as an effective means of acquiring information

the endowment effect and the reference state evidence and manipulations abstract recent reports suggest that the endowment effect may be due to conditions under which it is observed and explained by incentives long recognized in standard theory evidence from new experiments reported here provides empirical support for the role of the economic environment on people s perceived reference state and consequently on their valuations as suggested by koszegi and rabin koszegi b rabin m 2006 a model of reference dependent preferences quarterly journal of economics 121 1133 1165 and indicates that the disappearance of the valuation disparity is more likely due instead to conditions that weaken the perception of reference states further these conditions appear to be poor approximations of those that prevail in most cases for which valuations are normally made

explaining the endowment effect through ownership the role of identity gender and self threat the price people are willing to pay for a good is often less than the price they are willing to accept to give up the same good a phenomenon called the endowment effect loss aversion has typically accounted for the endowment effect but an alternative explanation suggests that ownership creates an association between the item and the self and this possession self link increases the value of the good to test the ownership account this research examines three moderators that theory suggests should affect the possession self link and consequently the endowment effect self threat identity associations of a good and gender after a social self threat the endowment effect is strengthened for in group goods among both men and women but is eliminated for out group goods among men but not women these results are consistent with a possession self link explanation and therefore suggest that ownership offers a better explanation for the endowment effect

cash in your face the cost of racial and ethnic discrimination in housing abstract according to recent evidence racial and ethnic discrimination in housing continues to be widespread this paper estimates the cost this discrimination imposes on black and hispanic households building on the work of 4 the paper develops a housing search model and measures the cost of discrimination by its impact on the gain a household can achieve through housing search the cost of discrimination is then calculated for a representative sample of households the punchline black and hispanic households pay a discrimination tax of almost 4 000 on average every time they search for a house to buy

examining risk preferences under high monetary incentives experimental evidence from the people s republic of china several experimental sessions were conducted to elicit certainty equivalents for a sequence of lotteries involving real monetary outcomes the opportunity to conduct sessions in the people s republic of china afforded the ability to offer very large monetary incentives relative to subjects living costs in the highest payoff condition subjects earned three times their normal monthly revenue in the course of a two hour experiment results indicate a statistically significant impact of the level of monetary incentives on revealed risk preferences however even under extreme monetary incentives subjects demanded amounts well in excess of expected value for low probability gain prospects copyright 1992 by american economic association

the governance of exclusive territories when dealers can bootleg a transaction cost approach is used to investigate a manufacturer s policy towards exclusive territory dealers who bootleg sell across their assigned territories we show that optimal enforcement policies will generally tolerate some level of bootlegging this tolerance is a natural consequence of the transaction cost principle that institutional arrangements are not fully enforceable and that self enforcing implicit agreements will require some degree of tolerance the actual degree of tolerance is determined by a the importance of reseller services b the reduction in margin realized from surreptitious sales and c the resellers beliefs about the manufacturer s long run commitment to the channel we also show that deploying exclusive territories is beneficial to the manufacturer because it safeguards reseller services and permits resellers to capitalize on their superior local information however the latter effect is contingent on being able to convince resellers of the manufacturer s long r

more laboratory evidence on the disparity between willingness to pay and compensation demanded abstract recent experimental work showing a disparity between willingness to pay for and compensation demanded to give up lottery tickets is contrary to economists ideas about rationality presented here are the results of experiments in which subjects participate in second price auctions to indicate willingness to pay and compensation demanded for lottery tickets that have fixed odds of winning or losing money when the auction institution used has truthful revelation of preferences as the dominant strategy and that strategy is announced to subjects the difference between the measures of value decreases significantly the within subject comparison design provides a more discriminating measure of behavior than between subject comparison designs used previously

why are hispanic and asian american homeownership rates so low immigration and other factors abstract the homeownership rates of hispanic and asian american households are significantly less than that of other demographic groups in the us especially after accounting for income and other characteristics this naturally leads to an investigation of the impact of immigration characteristics of various groups on the propensity for homeownership it is found that being an immigrant has a substantial negative effect on the probability of being a homeowner but that this effect dissipates over time the relative youth of these two groups in and of itself plays a significant role in lowering their homeownership rate as does the relatively high rate of residence in areas with high value rent ratios

intertemporal tenure choices abstract an intertemporal model of household tenure choice is estimated using data from the michigan panel survey on income dynamics unlike empirical studies that focus on household tenure differences at any point in time this analysis considers choice patterns over a 4 year period the estimation results often indicate substantial leads lags and household condition duration effects on the structure of tenure status choices and the timing of their change an implication of these findings is that inferences based on analyses of tenure choice at one particular point in time often are misleading

willingness to pay and compensation demanded experimental evidence of an unexpected disparity in measures of value aside from possible income effects measures of the maximum amounts people will pay to avoid a loss and the minimum compensation necessary for them to accept it are generally assumed to be equivalent unexpectedly wide variations between these sums however have been noted in survey responses to hypothetical options this paper reports the results of a series of experiments that confronted people with actual money payments and cash compensations the results indicate that the compensation measure of value seems to exceed significantly the willingness to pay measure which would appear to call into some question various rules of entitlement damage assessments and interpretations of indifference curves

discrete choice modelling of urban housing markets a critical review and an application the housing choice literature is a vast area of housing research which has resulted in giant leaps forward in recent years in terms of its econometric modelling this is due in large part to the significant increases now available in computing power allowing researchers to combine the latest advances in theory with empirical application this paper brings together and critically reviews the housing choice literature and techniques that have been used to model the household s housing choice decision the basic multinomial logit model is reviewed alongside the more recent advances in discrete choice modelling the nested multinomial logit model and the heteroscedastic extreme value model the various techniques are illustrated using data from the australian census of 1986 and 1996 to model housing choice in sydney the results show that careful consideration must be given to the assumptions underlying any chosen modelling technique if one is not to draw misleading conclusions from the analysis