analysis of seat allocation and overbooking decisions with hybrid information abstract we investigate a single leg airline revenue management problem where an airline has limited demand information and uncensored no show information to use such hybrid information for simultaneous overbooking and booking control decisions we combine expected overbooking cost with revenue then we take a robust optimization approach with a regret based criterion while the criterion is defined on a myriad of possible demand scenarios we show that only a small number of them are necessary to compute the objective we also prove that nested booking control policies are optimal among all deterministic ones we further develop an effective computational method to find the optimal policy and compare our policy to others proposed in the literature

market structure and the value of overselling under stochastic demands in the operations management literature traditional revenue management focused on pricing and capacity allocation strategies in a two period model with stochastic demand inspired by travel and lodging industries we examine a two period model in which each seller may also adopt the overselling strategy to customers whose valuations are differentiated by timing of arrivals widely seen as a popular hedge against consumers skipping reservations we extend the stylized approaches of biyalogorsky carmon fruchter and gerstner 1999 and lim 2009 to understand the value of overselling under various market structures we find that contrary to existing literature the impact of period two pricing competition from overselling spills over to period one such that overselling may not always be a weakly dominant strategy once unlimited early demand ceases to hold in a duopoly regime we provide some numerical studies on the existence of multiple equilibria at the capacity allocation level which actually lead to different selling strategies at the equilibrium despite identical market conditions and firm characteristics

a survey on risk averse and robust revenue management abstract many industries use revenue management to balance uncertain stochastic demand and inflexible capacity popular examples include airlines hotels car rentals retailing and manufacturing the classical revenue management approaches considered in theory and practice are based on two assumptions first demand as the only uncertain variable follows a known distribution and second risk neutrality justifies the maximization of expected revenue recently two related streams of literature emerged that do not need these assumptions research on risk averse revenue management acknowledges that in practice many decision makers are risk averse research on robust revenue management focuses worst case scenarios without a known demand distribution which is especially relevant for new and extremely unstable businesses this paper motivates the consideration of risk averse and robust revenue management we briefly introduce revenue managements two main methods capacity control and dynamic pricing in the classical risk neutral setting then we provide an exhaustive review of the literature on risk averse and robust capacity control and dynamic pricing in doing so the relevant decision criteria are briefly introduced finally possible avenues for future research are outlined

does infrastructure investment stimulate building supply the case of the english regions ball m and nanda a does infrastructure investment stimulate building supply the case of the english regions regional studies policies to improve infrastructure to stimulate regional growth remain common this paper investigates whether increases in infrastructure investment in the english regions lead to subsequent rises in new commercial and residential property using time series modelling both physical roads and harbours and social infrastructure education and health impacts are investigated hardly any infrastructure effects with respect to commercial property investment were found which raises doubts about whether extra infrastructure creates employment though some impact was related to residential building overall these results raise doubts about the supposed direct effects of infrastructure policies on regional jobs and growth

the relative productivity hypothesis of industrialization the american case 1820 to 1850 a two sector model is used to explore the role of the agricultural sector in the process of industrialization our hypothesis is that areas industrialize earlier where the wages for females and children relative to those for adult males are initially low furthermore the lower this relative productivity of females and children in the pre industrial economy the proportionately more will their relative wages increase and the higher will be the ratio of manufactured to agricultural goods the model is used to interpret the conditions that fostered the rapid industrialization of the american northeast but not the south from 1820 to 1850

it based technical change and job instability we investigate the impact of it diffusion on the stability of employment we document the evolution of different components of job instability over a panel of 348 cities in france from the mid 1970s to the early 2000s the evidence goes against the view that the diffusion of it has spurred job instability yet analysing long term differences in the occupational structure we find that it diffusion has increased the share of high skill occupations at the expense of low skill occupations this is consistent with french firms reliance on their internal labour market to meet the new skill requirements associated with it diffusion

labor market monopsony there has been a renewed interest in monopsony in labor markets in recent years that includes both the traditional static approach to monopsony ably reviewed by boal and ransom 1997 and the new approach to monopsony with more attention paid to dynamic issues developed in detail by manning 2003 the articles presented in this supplement highlight both approaches and illustrate the range of labor market settings in which the exercise of monopsony power may be important the first use of the term monopsony in economics is widely attributed to robinson 1969 robinson conceived of monopsony as analogous to monopoly whereas monopoly refers to the case of a single seller confronted in a market by many buyers monopsony refers to the case of a single buyer confronted in a market by many sellers just as the monopolist faces a downward sloping demand curve for his product and

linking local business with global growth opportunities the role of infrastructure infrastructure is instrumental when it comes to linking local businesses with their global growth opportunities this paper shows that by making this link the transport network can act as a catalyst for regional economic growth using a novel approach we find that firms in regions with a more developed transport infrastructure are better placed to benefit from positive growth opportunities than those in regions with a less well developed transport network this advantage is most pronounced in times of economic slack making a better transport network a key ingredient for economic recovery it is against this background that the recent slowdown in infrastructure investment in europe is worrisome but it is through this channel among others that the substantial ramp up of activity by the european investment bank is expected to foster growth and enhance competitiveness in europe

increasing returns migrations and convergence abstract the paper investigates the link between convergence and factor mobility it contrasts the predictions of exogenous growth models where factor mobility is found to promote convergence with endogenous growth models where factor mobility invariably leads to a cumulative process of regional divergence the paper develops a simple model of regional growth with mobile factors increasing returns to scale and diminishing returns to the reproducible factor it also tries to provide more solid microfoundations to the specification of the migration choice because of diminishing returns to the reproducible factor the economy will not be able to generate endogenous self sustaining growth nevertheless the results suggest that even in the context of an exogenous growth model convergence is not warranted however convergence may occur for some particular constellations despite the presence of increasing returns to scale more precisely it is shown that convergence is more likely the greater is the scope for scale economies and somewhat paradoxically the lower is the degree of labor mobility

the regional allocation of infrastructure investment the role of equity efficiency and political factors abstract this paper analyses the main determinants of the regional allocation of infrastructure investment the estimated investment equation is derived from a general specification of the government s objective function berhman and craig am econom rev 77 1987 315 which accounts both for the equity efficiency trade off and for deviations from this rule that arise because of political factors the reaction of investment to changes in the regional output provides information about the strength of the equity efficiency trade off the main political factor considered is a measurement of the electoral productivity of funds invested in each region the equation is estimated from panel data on investment and the capital stock of transportation infrastructure i e roads rails ports and airports for the spanish departments nuts3 during the period 1987 1996 we use a dynamic specification of the equation that allows for slow adjustment and which is estimated by gmm methods arellano and bond rev econom stud 58 1991 277 the results suggest that efficiency criteria play only a limited role in the geographical distribution of government infrastructure investment specific regional infrastructure needs and political factors both appear to be factors that do explain the regional allocation of infrastructure investment

complementing emu rethinking cohesion policy under emu the less competitive regions of the eu usually assumed to be peripheral have been widely expected to lose ground yet it is the core of the eu that so far has appeared to have suffered from the advent of the euro this paper looks at the processes behind regional divergence in the eu and presents evidence on recent and prospective trends as emu is consolidated bearing in mind that the imminent enlargement of the eu will radically change the political economy of the eu s efforts to assure cohesion policy issues are then discussed looking forward to the next renegotiation of the structural funds it is argued that difficult decisions have to be taken about the extent and character of eu policy the option of an open method of coordination for cohesion policy is put forward as a means of resolving some of the hard choices

accommodating public expenditure policies the case of fast growing asian economies abstract it is widely believed that the exceptional economic performances of the east asian economies are attributable as much to the visible hand of the state as to the invisible hand of the market this paper analyzes the experiences of japan south korea singapore and taiwan in implementing a key instrument of state intervention namely public expenditure policy the analysis shows that these economies could achieve high standards of physical and social infrastructure even with relatively low spending the key features of complementary spending policy include emphasis on macroeconomic stability cost effective spending involvement of private sector in providing quasi public goods minimum distortions in the labor markets and human resource development to achieve a broad based development

changes in job instability and insecurity using monthly survey data this article provides evidence on changes in short term job instability and insecurity using the survey of income and program participation monthly measures from this data set are contrasted with annual measures from the survey of income and program participation and the panel study of income dynamics neither data set shows an increase in job turnover during the 1980s and 1990s we also examine indicators of increased insecurity these include the probability that a job ends involuntarily is followed by a spell of nonemployment or that the subsequent job has lower wages these indicators of insecurity also show no upward trend

infrastructure investment a review essay economists try not to be faddists but they often cannot help themselves while work on a topic should mirror the prospective importance of the topic that situation seems to occur with disappointing frequency instead the usual pattern is that some reasonably important topic will be totally ignored for the longest time then recognized and then the subject of a flurry of work all out of proportion to its likely long run importance nowhere has this speculative bubble of economic research been more clearly illustrated than with infrastructure investment macroeconomists havelong felt that the stock of public capital is an important factor input in the production of total output macroeconomists have known that u s productivity growth slowed dramatically in about 1973 and macroeconomists should have known that united states investment in public capital has been down since the late 1960s yet analysis of the u s productivity slowdown completely ignored infrastructure investment for the first fifteen years of this slowdown concentrating instead on energy prices social regulation the composition of the work force research and development different rates of obsolescence of the private capital stock and any number of other matters the public capital stock was hardly ever even mentioned as a potential factor in the productivity slowdown aschauer changed all that he wrote a series of papers 1989a 1989b 1989c that put these two movements together econometrically infrastructure investment turned down and aggregate productivity turned down slightly later both in the united states and in some other developed countries his work hit the magic button those who had worried about the productivity puzzle for fifteen years welcomed a new suspect those who were worried about low rates of u s national saving welcomed a new way to make their argument even more forcefully than with official figures on saving and investment which do not count infrastructure investment as investment political liberals and liberal politicians saw a way to rescue government spending and projects from the assaults of reaganism and even a way to avoid oth

workers machines and economic growth this paper models technology adoption as replacing workers by machines which perform the same job in the production process the paper shows that such modelling of technology adoption affects significantly the analysis of economic growth this model can explain large and persistent international differences in output levels and growth rates caused by small differences in underlying parameters

should the personal computer be considered a technological revolution evidence from u s metropolitan areas the introduction and diffusion of personal computers are widely viewed as a technological revolution using u s metropolitan area level panel data this paper asks whether links between pc adoption educational attainment and the return to skill conform to a model of technological revolutions in which the speed and extent of adoption are endogenous the model implies that cities will adjust differently to the arrival of a more skill intensive means of production with the returns to skill increasing most where skill is abundant and its return is low we show that the cross city data fit many of the predictions of the model during the period 1980 2000 the pc diffusion era

transforming european regional policy a results driven agenda and smart specialization the paper examines the nature rationale and logic of the reforms to eu cohesion policy a particular focus of the paper is on the concept of smart specialization and the use of this concept to help facilitate a results oriented policy agenda on the one hand the arguments underpinning the reforms in part relate to modern thinking regarding the role of industrial policy on the other hand they also partly relate to advances in our understanding of the relationships between economic geography technology and institutions at the same time the specific features of the eu context also heavily influence the nature and logic of the changes whereby legal and institutional matters linking cohesion policy to other eu policies all play an important role

revenue management with limited demand information in this paper we consider the classical multifare single resource leg problem in revenue management for the case where demand information is limited our approach employs a competitive analysis which guarantees a certain performance level under all possible demand scenarios the only information required about the demand for each fare class is lower and upper bounds we consider both competitive ratio and absolute regret performance criteria for both performance criteria we derive the best possible static policies which employ booking limits that remain constant throughout the booking horizon the optimal policies have the form of nested booking limits dynamic policies which employ booking limits that may be adjusted at any time based on the history of bookings are also obtained we provide extensive computational experiments and compare our methods to existing ones the results of the experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of these new robust methods

inter regional redistribution through infrastructure investment tactical or programmatic in this paper we study the political economy of the inter regional allocation of investment in infrastructure in an effort to disentangle tactical and programmatic motives where tactical politics refers to the discretionary allocation of investment to districts with more political clout and programmatic politics refers to the allocation of investment according to certain objective criteria e g income level we use a panel of data from the spanish electoral districts for the period 1964 2004 to estimate an equation in which investment depends both on economic and political variables the results show that tactical politics do matter since the districts receiving the most funds are those in which i the incumbent s vote margin is low ii few votes are needed to win an additional seat in the legislature iii the central and regional governments are controlled by the same party and iv regional parties play a pivotal role in the legislature however the results also show that programmatic politics matter since inter regional redistribution is shown to increase i with the arrival of democracy and european union funds ii under leftist governments and iii the weaker the correlation is between political clout and regional income

declining job security this article defines and analyzes job security in the context of implicit contracts designed to overcome incentive problems in the employment relationship contracts of this nature generate predictions concerning the relationship between job security parameters such as worker seniority and sectoral economic conditions and the probability of separations to test these predictions i estimate binomial and multinomial models of job separations using panel study of income dynamics psid data for the years 1976 93 the results are consistent with a decline over time in the incentives to maintain existing employment relationships for male workers and for skilled white collar women

robust portfolio choice with learning in the framework of regret single period case in this paper we formulate a single period portfolio choice problem with parameter uncertainty in the framework of relative regret relative regret evaluates a portfolio by comparing its return to a family of benchmarks where the benchmarks are the wealths of fictitious investors who invest optimally given knowledge of the model parameters and is a natural objective when there is concern about parameter uncertainty or model ambiguity the optimal relative regret portfolio is the one that performs well in relation to all the benchmarks over the family of possible parameter values we analyze this problem using convex duality and show that it is equivalent to a bayesian problem where the lagrange multipliers play the role of the prior distribution and the learning model involves bayesian updating of these lagrange multipliers prior this bayesian problem is unusual in that the prior distribution is endogenously chosen by solving the dual optimization problem for the lagrange multipliers and the objective function involves the family of benchmarks from the relative regret problem these results show that regret is a natural means by which robust decision making and learning can be combined this paper was accepted by dimitris bertsimas optimization

equilibrium bias of technology this paper presents three sets of results about equilibrium bias of technology first i show that when the menu of technological possibilities only allows for factor augmenting technologies the increase in the supply of a factor induces technological change relatively biased toward that factor meaning that the induced technological change increases the relative marginal product of the factor becoming more abundant moreover this induced bias can be strong enough to make the relative marginal product of a factor increasing in response to an increase in its supply thus leading to an upward sloping relative demand curve i also show that these results about relative bias do not generalize when more general menus of technological possibilities are considered second i prove that under mild assumptions the increase in the supply of a factor induces technological change that is absolutely biased toward that factor meaning that it increases its marginal product at given factor proportions the third and most important result in the paper establishes the possibility of and conditions for strong absolute equilibrium bias whereby the price marginal product of a factor increases in response to an increase in its supply i prove that under some regularity conditions there will be strong absolute equilibrium bias if and only if the aggregate production function of the economy fails to be jointly concave in factors and technology this type of failure of joint concavity is possible in economies where equilibrium factor demands and technologies result from the decisions of different agents

public sector capital and the productivity puzzle a number of studies have suggested a quantitatively important relationship between public sector capital accumulation and private sector productivity with the most compelling evidence derived from analyses of state level data estimates herein of production functions that use standard techniques to control for unobserved state specific characteristics however reveal essentially no role for public sector capital in affecting private sector productivity only estimates of state production functions that do not include such controls find substantial productivity impacts this result reconciles existing econometric estimates with the findings of hulten and schwab based on growth accounting techniques as such techniques effectively control for state specific effects region level estimates are essentially identical to those from state data suggesting no quantitatively important spillover effects across states copyright 1994 by mit press

infrastructure provision and macroeconomic performance this paper studies the differences between private and government provision of infrastructure capital utilization decisions and their differential role in determining market prices for capital goods under the two regimes of infrastructure provision serve as a critical transmission mechanism for fiscal policy a subsidy to private providers of infrastructure is preferable to direct government provision irrespective of how the subsidy or expenditure is financed the case for private provision is much stronger in economies characterized by high levels of congestion the choice between private and government provision also has a crucial effect on the design of optimal fiscal policy 2011 elsevier b v all rights reserved

is public expenditure productive abstract this paper considers the relationship between aggregate productivity and stock and flow government spending variables the empirical results indicate that i the nonmilitary public capital stock is dramatically more important in determining productivity than is either the flow of nonmilitary or military spending ii military capital bears little relation to productivity and iii a core infrastructure of streets highways airports mass transit sewers water systems etc has most explanatory power for productivity the paper also suggests an important role for the net public capital stock in the productivity slowdown of the last fifteen years

the intertemporal elasticity of substitution an analysis based on japanese data this paper investigates whether the intertemporal elasticity of substitution ies for japan possesses similar properties to that found for the united states in the literature as the existing empirical findings are mixed there is no clear consensus this paper uses a model with both production and non separability between nondurables and durables in order to control for possible factors that cause a bias in the ies we present the empirical results demonstrating that the ies is quite similar between the two countries

between development and social policies the impact of european structural funds in objective 1 regions rodriguez pose a and fratesi u 2004 between development and social policies the impact of european structural funds in objective 1 regions reg studies 38 97 113 european regional support has grown in parallel with european integration the funds targeted at achieving greater economic and social cohesion and reducing disparities within the european union eu have more than doubled in relative terms since the end of the 1980s making development policies the second most important policy area in the eu the majority of the development funds have been earmarked for objective 1 regions i e regions where gdp per capita is below the 75 threshold of the eu average however the european development policies have come under increasing criticism based on two facts the lack of upward mobility of assisted regions and the absence of regional convergence this paper assesses using cross sectional and panel data analyses the failure so far of european development policies to fulfil their objective of de

infrastructure and education as instruments of regional policy evidence from spain regional policy and spain infrastructure and education as instruments of regional policy evidence from spain governments have often tried to influence the regional distribution of economic activity through supply side measures such as investment in training and infrastructure using evidence from spain we examine whether such policies can have an impact and whether they have done so in the past our results indicate that disparities in the stocks of human and public capital account for a third of observed regional inequality about evenly split between the two factors hence public investment can in principle be used to reduce regional disparity its actual impact however will depend both on its overall volume and on the extent to which its regional allocation does indeed vary with regional need in spain investment in infrastructure has made only a small contribution to regional convergence primarily because it has not in practice been allocated to redistribute across regions to any great extent in contrast efrd transfers have clearly been allocated among regions with redistribution in mind the impact of the fund has been significant but it has been limited by the relatively small size of the programme angel de la fuente and xavier vives

revenue management without forecasting or optimization an adaptive algorithm for determining airline seat protection levels we investigate a simple adaptive approach to optimizing seat protection levels in airline revenue management systems the approach uses only historical observations of the relative frequencies of certain seat filling events to guide direct adjustments of the seat protection levels in accordance with the optimality conditions of brumelle and mcgill 1993 stochastic approximation theory is used to prove the convergence of this adaptive algorithm to the optimal protection levels in a simulation study we compare the revenue performance of this adaptive approach to a more traditional method that combines a censored forecasting method with a common seat allocation heuristic emsr b

services sector and economic growth in india this study examines the long run equilibrium and short run dynamic relationship between services sector and gross domestic product gdp and between services and nonservices sectors in india the model is estimated using the optimal single equation and the maximum likelihood system estimators all the estimators consistently suggest the cointegrating relationship between services sector and gdp as well as between services and nonservices sectors the estimates of long run elasticity parameters are statistically significant and dimensionally consistent across the estimators the conventional cumulative sum cusum and the new cusum and moving sum mosum tests suggest the stability of the equilibrium residuals and reinforce the cointegrating relationship between the model series the error correction model provides some support for unidirectional granger causality from services sector to gdp the impulse response and variance decomposition analyses instead suggest the bidirectional causality between servic

changes in job security and their causes an empirical analysis for france 1982 2002 abstract in this paper we analyze the changes in the risks of involuntary job loss in france between 1982 and 2002 we find that these risks are higher in the 1990s than they were in the 1980s we develop an econometric analysis to separate the effects of institutional changes from the effects of new technologies our estimates show that the rise in job loss rates is significantly more pronounced in industries that have the largest share of r d workers and the largest rate of new technologies users these findings suggest that technological changes contribute to decreasing the incentive to keep workers for long period of time and to increasing job insecurity

public infrastructure and regional economic development a simultaneous equations approach an analysis of how central bank exchange market intervention can affect both the level of exchange rates and the risk premium in asset returns showing how the risk premium is related to the conditional variances of intervention and other exogenous processes

public capital and private productivity this paper uses three different approaches to investigate whether the declining provision of public capital is a major cause of declining labor productivity the juxtaposition of approaches removes

what have we learned from three decades of research on the productivity of public capital the last three decades have witnessed a great deal of research effort devoted to measuring the private output elasticity of public capital the wide range of available estimates have precluded any consensus so far however this paper reconciles the empirical findings of the literature by quantitatively analyzing a sample of 578 estimates collected from 68 studies for the 1983 2008 period using meta regression analysis we show how study design characteristics and publication bias can explain a large fraction of the variation across estimates we find a short run output elasticity of public capital supplied at the central government level of 0 083 which increases to 0 122 in the long run if in addition only core infrastructure at a regional local level of government is considered these estimates are almost doubled the average output elasticity of public capital amounts to 0 106 our results suggest that public capital is undersupplied in oecd economies

differences in gdp per head in gb counties some suggested explanations this paper examines the evidence concerning the convergence of gross domestic product gdp per head across gb counties during 1977 1995 in general the evidence rejects the hypothesis of convergence although there is some evidence of a north south divide with convergence in the north in the 1990s cross section results suggest that variation in gdp per head may be related to different economic activity rates and some aspects of industrial structure