intersectoral externalities and indeterminacy abstract we consider a two sector economy with positive intersectoral external effects and nonincreasing social returns we show that if the discount factor is close to 1 then local indeterminacy may be obtained with mild market imperfections moreover with additional conditions when is made smaller the steady state becomes totally unstable and quasi periodic cycles along which equilibrium paths are indeterminate may appear through a hopf bifurcation this will be proved even if the investment good is capital intensive at the private level while this condition guarantees local determinacy in the sector specific case journal of economic literature classification numbers c62 e32 o41

stability in a discrete time model of the walrasian tatonnement abstract almost all of the extensive literature on the stability of the walrasian t tonnement models the process in continuous rather than discrete time since the motivation for the use of continuous time is primarily mathematical not economic and since stability for a continuous time model does not imply the stability of its discrete time analogue it is of interest to investigate the stability of the walrasian t tonnement modeled in discrete time the question is of particular importance since much of the recent literature on topics such as expectations disequilibrium trading and temporary equilibrium utilizes discrete time this paper demonstrates that for a certain class of models conditions known to be sufficient for stability in continuous time are also sufficient in a discrete time formulation of the price adjustment mechanism excess demand functions having the properties of gross substitution dominant diagonals and the morishima system of complementary commodities are analyzed

a wage price regime switching model abstract the model we discuss in this paper combines an employment function which is based on a kaldor type consumption function and a simple production function with a wage price subsystem whose parameters switch when a critical level of employment is reached depending on the way in which exogenous variables are specified and on parameter values the model is capable of generating a wide variety of behavior in both real and nominal wages and prices

on the indeterminacy of capital accumulation paths abstract in neoclassical optimal growth models the stability of the accumulation paths depends on the discount parameter we prove that for discount factors small enough the policy function which describes an optimal path can be of any type the result is achieved using the notion of concavity we adopt a constructive approach given any twice differentiable map we show how to construct an optimal growth problem which produces that map as the optimal policy function a consequence is that chaos can appear in these models we also provide bounds on the values of the discount parameter for which indeterminacy is possible

a characterization of erratic dynamics in the overlapping generations model abstract in this paper we characterize and give examples o wide classes of utility functions which generate erratic dynamics in the standard deterministic overlapping generations model erratic dynamics refers to feasible trajectories which are bounded but which do not converge to stationary points or periodic orbits we show that such trajectories are pareto efficient we introduce credit into the model and show how a constant credit expansion rate can result in erratic trajectories in prices and the real value of credit finally we briefly discuss certain technical aspects of the mathematics used and the statistical nature of the dynamics that can arise from deterministic dynamical systems

on the economically optimal exploitation of a renewable resource the case of a convex environment and a convex return function we investigate optimal policies for the exploitation of a renewable resource subject to a concave growth function and a convex return function we prove an important result on the elasticity of the objective function and apply it to give a characterization of the optimal harvesting paths in this class of models in particular we derive conditions such that all optimal programs converge to a fixed point or to a cycle of finite period and hence result in the conservation of the resource we also show which assumptions guarantee that extinction of the stock is optimal that nonconvex preferences or technologies cause problems for economic theory is well known as our model can formally be interpreted as an optimal growth model with nonconcave utility function our results are a further contribution on the dynamics of optimal paths in the general class of economic models with nonconcavities journal of economic literatureclassification numbers c61 e32 q20

monetary policy regimes expected inflation and the response of interest rates to money announcements this paper examines the response of the term structure of interest rates to weekly money announcements estimated responses for both the pre and post october 1979 periods are first presented then two competing hypotheses involving the policy anticipations and expected inflation effects are formally specified and compared with the estimated responses both hypotheses are found to be consistent with the responses but they have sharply different implications about the federal reserve s short run monetary policy by exploiting these different implications additional empirical results focusing directly on the money stock process support the policy anticipations hypothesis

regional house price interactions in the uk 1975 81 a cross spectral analysis 1986 regional house price interactions in the uk 1975 81 a cross spectral analysis applied economics vol 18 no 9 pp 1011 1023

global equilibrium dynamics with stationary recursive preferences abstract we study the global dynamics of capital accumulation for a general two sector model which is not necessarily convex and where preferences of an infinitely lived agent are stationary but not additively separable we obtain monotonicity and convergence results for capital under normality assumptions on preferences and factor intensity assumptions on technology we then derive results on oscillatory dynamics under alternative factor intensity conditions or under the assumption of inferiority of future utilities finally in an exchange model with two agents we show that utilities will be monotonic or oscillatory depending on the normality or inferiority of the preferences

on conservation of renewable resources with stock dependent return and nonconcave production textabstractthis paper analyzes conservation and extinction of renewable resources when the production function is nonconcave and the return function depends on consumption and the resource stock the paper focuses on the efficiency of global conservation a safe standard of conservation and extinction which outcome obtains depends on the marginal rate of substitution between investment and the stock in addition to the discount factor and the marginal productivity of the resource conservation may be efficient even if the discounted intrinsic growth rate of the resource is less than 1 journal of economic literature classification numbers d90 q20

dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand the price quantity dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand curves is analysed we prove that chaotic dynamical behaviour can occur even if both the supply and demand curves are monotonic the introduction of adaptive expectations into the cobweb model leads to price quantity fluctuations with a smaller amplitude however at the same time the price quantity cycles may become unstable and chaotic oscillations may arise we present a geometric explanation why chaos can occur for a large class of nonlinear monotonic supply and demand curves

stochastic dynamic models with stock dependent rewards abstract we examine the behavior of optimal consumption and investment policies in aggregate stochastic growth models when utility depends on both consumption and the stock level such models arise in the study of renewable resources monetary growth and growth with public capital conditions are given which guarantee that optimal policies are monotonic the limiting behavior of the optimal consumption investment and output processes is characterized

side effects of nonlinear profit taxes in an evolutionary market entry model abrupt changes coexisting attractors and hysteresis problems in order to demonstrate that nonlinear tax systems may have surprising and potentially undesirable side effects we develop an evolutionary market entry model in which firms decide on the basis of past profit opportunities whether or not to enter a competitive market our main focus is on the case of a proportional tax on positive profits such a piecewise linear tax scheme induces a kink in the firms profit functions and may lead to abrupt changes in a market s dynamics coexisting attractors and hysteresis problems since these phenomena can also be observed in more general models a proper understanding of their basic mechanism may be helpful to explain the intricate behavior of many economic systems

learning in mis specified models and the possibility of cycles abstract i study the problem of a monopolist maximizing a sum of discounted profits facing a linear demand curve whose slope and intercept are unknown i show that if the monopolist has a mis specified model i e if the true slope and intercept lie outside of the support of the monopolist s prior beliefs then actions and beliefs may cycle on every sample path this behavior is shown to be robust to perturbations in the prior true parameter and actions such behavior is not possible if the agent s model is correctly specified instead actions and beliefs necessarily converge

a regional comparison of house price inflation rates in britain 1967 76 the paper presents by using regionally disaggregated data for the british economic planning regions some questions on the usefulness of current macro oriented approaches to the modelling of house price inflation the paper indicates that such models should be restricted in their use to national levels it argues that a more disaggregated approach to the analysis of house price changes would not only be locally useful but would take account of housing research on the micro level

discounting and long run behavior global bifurcation analysis of a family of dynamical systems abstract this paper is concerned with the relationship between the discount rate and the nature of long run behavior in dynamic optimization models the theory is developed under two conditions the first is history independence which rules out multiple limit sets the second is a condition that avoids the reversion to a stable steady state as the discount factor is lowered once cycles have emerged these conditions appear to be the minimal restrictions that would allow analysis by a bifurcation diagram the results are illustrated by two well known examples in this literature due to sutherland and weitzman samuelson journal of economic literature classification numbers c61 d90 041

stability global dynamics and markov equilibrium in models of endogenous economic growth abstract this paper studies the local and global dynamics of two sector models of endogenous growth with economy wide external effects and taxes on capital and labor the local analysis classifies the parameter space depending on the number of stationary solutions and local stability of equilibria the global analysis shows that if taxes are within certain bounds and the size of the external effects on the average level of human capital is smaller than the share of physical capital the equilibrium path is monotone and therefore a continuous markov equilibrium can be constructed

competitive business cycles in an overlapping generations economy with productive investment abstract this paper examines the emergence of long run competitive periodic equilibria in a two period overlapping generations model with capital accumulation the existence of periodic equilibria is a consequence of the existence of an aggregate bubble money and of a non linear behaviour of aggregate savings the technique used is to show that the problem can be reduced to the study of a dynamical map from an interval into itself although it is originally two dimensional this will allow us to study the occurrence of cycles from a global point of view

complex economic dynamics obvious in history generic in theory elusive in data summary the capacity of nonlinear dynamic models to mimic qualitative features of economic data is illustrated with an adaptive version of the neoclassical growth theory implications for econometric methodology are discussed emphasizing structural estimation and qualitative inference

international trade and the possible occurrence of chaos abstract the paper demonstrates that international trade among fluctuating economies may involve the occurrence of a strange attractor and hence of chaos once autonomous economies display cyclical behavior international trade activities can be considered as a perturbation of the motion of the autonomous economies possible implying chaos via a theorem by newhouse ruelle and takens 1979

dynamic complexity in duopoly games abstract we discuss the occurrence of periodic and chaotic phenomena in infinite horizon duopoly games where firms maximize their discounted sum of profits and use markov perfect equilibrium strategies in the alternating case their corresponding actions are then constrained orbits of a map similar to a cournot t tonnement we show that any behavior is possible for small discount factors and that one obtains the cournot t tonnement as the discount factor goes to zero in the simultaneous case we show by mean of an example that many cournot t tonnements can be viewed as markov perfect equilibria of an infinite horizon game and that one obtains the nash equilibrium of the static game as the discount parameter goes to zero we are thus led to study in detail the dynamical properties of a cournot t tonnement

chaotic price behavior in a non linear cobweb model abstract the cobweb model for the evolution of prices is considered with backward bending supply curves and multi valued demand curves these deterministic non linear dynamical systems are shown to exhibit a broad spectrum of complex time behavior including stable periodic cycles of arbitrary order and chaos

caution implies profit abstract the paper illustrates by simple cobweb models that under certain circumstances fluctuations in perpetual disequilibrium may not only be viable but also preferable to a competitive equilibrium from the long run perspective

introduction to market psychology and nonlinear endogenous business cycles abstract the purpose of this symposium is to present geometric methods that are useful to study multiple equilibria and endogenous fluctuations in simple two dimensional macroeconomic models with a single predetermined variable characterizing the support of a sunspot equilibrium by its invariance properties in the underlying deterministic dynamics generates a complete description of stochastic endogenous fluctuations near a stationary state and along local bifurcations graphical methods to perform sensitivity analysis of local indeterminacy and bifurcations with respect to variations of uncertain economic parameters are also presented these methods are applied to specific macroeconomic models with constant returns to scale with external increasing returns and with imperfect competition journal of economic literatureclassification numbers e32 c62

chaotic dynamics in economic time series abstract there has recently been considerable interest in chaotic dynamics in a variety of disciplines this paper introduces and then surveys some of the associated literature and techniques applications to economic theory are discussed but the primary focus is on empirical applicability in addition to surveying the literature we also provide an example of the use of these techniques in economics we conclude by highlighting the importance of the techniques for empirical work as well as considering their context in econometric methodology

a complete characterization of optimal growth paths in an aggregated model with a non concave production function the convexity of technology has played a crucial role in economic analyses of optimal one sector growth problems for example two of the key results on the traditional model of ramsey 1928 that have relied on the convexity of the technology are that optimal intertemporal growth involves moving monotonically towards a unique steady state as in cass 1965 koopmans 1965 and that the value function is a concave differentiable function of the initial capital stock as in benveniste and scheinkman 1979

modelling spatial structures in local housing market dynamics a multilevel perspective there has been a long history of research into the development and estimation of hedonic house price models there is however a discrepancy between the empirical and theoretical approaches to this research a major issue lies in the integration of the conceptual and theoretical models of local housing markets with the context insensitive nature of the standard hedonic model specification this paper explores this inconsistency by using multilevel modelling to move towards a more empirically and conceptually appealing specification of the hedonic house price model it uses price data from cardiff to investigate how a multilevel approach can explicitly incorporate the spatial structures of housing market dynamics and the ad hoc nature of the valuation process the paper concludes that successful empirical analysis depends upon a clear theoretical understanding of the processes under investigation

ramsey equilibrium in a two sector model with heterogeneous households abstract we prove an existence theorem for a stationary perfect foresight equilibrium under borrowing constraints in a two sector model with infinitely lived heterogeneous agents the most patient agent holds all the capital in this solution we also show that if the capital goods sector is capital intensive and capital income is increasing in the aggregate capital stock then the aggregate capital stock eventually is monotonic and converges to the steady state stock if the consumption goods sector is more capital intensive and capital income is increasing in aggregate capital we prove convergence to the steady state under more restrictive conditions periodic equilibria are shown to exist under weaker hypotheses journal of economic literature classification numbers d52 d90 e13

the emergence of chaos from classical economic growth this paper shows how fluctuations of an erratic and unstable nature can emerge from the classical deterministic economic growth process implications of the analysis would appear to be at least two first pronounced changes in the way an economy behaves need not cause us to reject our understanding of how it works second we need not seek in exogenous forces an explanation as to why behavioral patterns change and why it may be so difficult to anticipate future events from the profile of past experience

equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos abstract this paper surveys current developments in dynamic general equilibrium theory concerned with conditions under which endogenous fluctuations are possible existing contributions are divided into two classes the larger one consists of models with a unique perfect foresight equilibrium while the second includes models where equilibrium is indeterminate and the set of equilibria involving endogenous fluctuations includes sunspots equilibria while the two classes of models involve oscillations of different natures and with different policy implications we show that both are consistent with optimizing behavior and competitive equilibrium

micro heterogeneity of firms and the stability of industrial growth abstract in the micro macro m m model moses real swedish firms make independent decisions in markets schumpeterian innovative activities and wicksellian capital market disequilibria generate a growth cycle production and investment decisions in firms are dynamically coordinated by markets for products labor and capital under different market regimes as to speed intensity of competitive processes and of innovative activity by varying market regime ceteris par leux long term growth rates of the economy can be generated at cliffe as much as between the industrial countries during the last 50 years high speed market processes increase output growth for long periods but make the model economy sensitive to disturbances that eventually generate a severe depression simulation results suggest the importance for stable macroeconomic growth of a steady input of innovative technical change through new investment new entry and exit to preserve micro diversity of structures

memory and market stability the case of the cobweb abstract when optimizing agents use their memories in a non linear cobweb model it will be asymptotically stable instability and chaos cannot occur this contrasts with the results when agents are forgetful however short run fluctuations are erratic and sensitive to initial conditions

irregular growth cycles this paper uses the familiar neoclassical theory of capital accumulation to show how complex behavior can emerge from quite simple economic structures indeed when sufficient nonlinearities and a production lag are present the interaction alone of the propensity to save and the productivity of capital can lead to growth cycles that exhibit a wandering sawtooth pattern not unlike those observed in reality these fluctuations need not converge to a cycle of any regular periodicity so they are not quasi periodic because such chaotic trajectories are unstable errors of estimation in parameters or initial conditions however tiny will accumulate rapidly into substantial errors of forecast moreover periods of erratic cycling can be interspersed with periods of more or less stable growth evidently the future behavior of a model solution cannot be anticipated from its patterns in the past a situation that seems to mimic experience apparent structural change and unpredictability is explained in the present theory by a deterministic single equation model random shocks play no role so the reader can visualize just what it is we are are talking about a noteworthy simulation is presented in figure 1 for gnp in a growth model that is described below in section iii a period of relatively rapid growth is followed by a period of cycles then remarkably for a considerable time about twenty periods apparently steady state growth occurs wandering cycles however emerge another brief period close to the steady state appears again toward the end of the series i establish conditions of savings and productivity that lead to results of this kind this analysis makes use of the mathematical theory of chaos which in the form exploited here originated in the work of edward lorenz a formal definition of chaos and sufficient conditions for chaotic trajectories were provided in a seminal paper by t y li and james yorke a survey of these related contributions is found in yorke and evelyn yorke this theory was introduced into economics by jess benhabib and myself 1981 where we showed that sequences of rational choices can be erratic when preferences depend on experience in a certain way by michael stutzer who provides a detailed analysis of trygve haavelmo s growth model by benhabib and myself 1980 in an application of the overlapping generations model and in my forthcoming study of the classical growth model

stabilizing competitive business cycles abstract we study how stylized monetary proportional money transfers fiscal lump sum money transfers and public expenditure policies may eliminate endogenous deterministic cycles and stationary markov sunspot equilibria in a simple version of the overlapping generations model we also present new constructive methods for analyzing stationary markov sunspot equilibria in such a framework

chaos significance mechanism and economic applications imagine a bargaining model say involving diplomats negotiating tariff levels or a disarmament treaty in which each party has been instructed by higher headquarters to respond to each new offer by her opposite number with a counteroffer that is to be calculated from a simple reaction function provided in advance both negotiating parties are prohibited from revealing their own reaction functions to the other if the perfectly deterministic sequence of offers and counteroffers that must emerge from these simple rules were to begin to oscillate wildly and apparently at random the negotiations could easily break down as each party not understanding the source of the problem came to suspect the other side of duplicity and sabotage yet all that may be involved as we will see is the phenomenon referred to as chaos a case that is emphatically not pathological but in which a dynamic mechanism that is very simple and deterministic yields a time path so complicated that it will pass most standard tests of randomness chaos has become a subject of great interest to specialists and nonspecialists alike besides economics it has entered the literature of geometry physics ecology and meteorology it has been written about at length in the new york times magazine and scientific american as well as technical publications this article seeks to describe what it is how it works and what it means for economics

the role of capital depreciation in multi sectoral models abstract this study investigates the role of capital depreciation in economic fluctuations that may appear in multi sectoral models of optimal growth in the standard literature on non linear optimal dynamics it has been assumed that capital depreciates completely within a period this study in contrast deals with the case in which capital depreciates slowly more precisely only by a certain percentage we adopt the standard two sector model with cobb douglas production functions and characterize the dynamics around the stationary state we derive explicit conditions on parameter values under which cyclical optimal paths appear these conditions reveal the complexity that slow depreciation adds to multi sectoral optimal dynamics the economic interpretation of slow depreciation in multi sectoral models is also discussed

poverty equilibrium an introductory systemic analysis abstract this paper represents an attempt to clarify the field of the studies concerning the poor stagnant economy using systemic analysis the original theories are reformulated in such a way as to highlight their similarities and dynamic structure the works of ragnar nurkse gunnar myrdal john k galbraith and harvey leibenstein are presented as components of a general theory of stagnation at low incomes the paper ends with an attempt to formulate a modern version of the theory using the chaotic dynamics approach to depict the situation the main purpose of this paper is to formulate the concept or in other words to clarify mathematically the hypothesis in order to test it the building of the empirical tests and of economic models to explain it is treated in other papers

recursive factor of production interrelations and endogenous cycling a multivariate linear rational expectations equilibrium version of the lucas prescott investment model is developed to study the behavior of factors of productions with recursive interrelations the connection between these interrelations and endogenous cycling is established in a testable way maximum likelihood estimates using annual postwar aggregate u s manufacturing data provide strong evidence of capital labor interrelations that induce a labor overshooting type of endogenous cycling this raises questions for the methodology of current real business cycle models which rule out the possibility of such interrelations copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

misperception driven chaos theory and policy implications abstract in a large economy it is extremely difficult if not impossible to immediately grasp the state of our surrounding environment with precision since we normally have access only to a subset of relevant information in this paper we introduce this information imperfection into an ordinary model of endogenous business cycles and examine how it would affect the dynamic nature of the model we in particular present a mechanism by which observation errors result in chaotic fluctuations in a model that would behave regularly otherwise thereby indicating the importance of potential misperception about the current state in a qualitative sense also our model is tractable enough to explicitly derive a policy index of chaotic fluctuations under some conditions this feature of the model allows us to draw some policy implications regarding the observability of macroeconomic state variables

money announcements the demand for bank reserves and the behavior of the federal funds rate within the statement week the effect of money stock announcements on the federal funds rate hasbeen attributed informally to the information conveyed by the announcements about aggregate reserved emand this aggregate information hypothesis explains the effect without ref erence to federal reserve intervention in the funds market in this paper the a uthor provides a formal model of the aggregate information hypothesis under lagged reserve accounting the model relies on imperfect information in the funds ma rket and on imperfect bank arbitrage of reserve demand between days of the week some stylized facts are presented about funds rate behavior in the period 1980 83 copyright 1987 by ohio state university press

perfectly competitive models of endogenous business fluctuations the endogenous hypothesis is not new at a pre analytic level it is based on the simple intuition that market mechanisms are inherently dynamically unstable at least around their stationary positions in this note i want to stress the theoretical point that there is nothing in the working of a perfectly competitive market system that prevents it from displaying persistent and endogenous fluctuations and that moreover such fluctuations may have their origins in market fundamentals such as factor intensities factor substitutability degree of impatience and so forth nevertheless macroeconomic models of endogenous fluctuations still have to prove that apart from being very beautiful they can also be useful to understand the so called heal world hit sunt leones this article is not intended to be a survey of all that has been written in this area in the last decade i have no title whatsoever to talk about empirical studies chera sayers contribution in this same volume addresses that guestion scheinkman 1990 is a readily available survey of nonlinear statistical methods that are relevant to this debate as for the theory incompetence recommends that i avoid touching on sunspot equilibria olg models and more generally expectations driven cycles they are instead discussed in jean michel grandmont s article finally marketing awareness implies recommending boldrin and woodford 1990 as a reasonably complete survey of what the endogenous cycle research program has recently produced at a theoretical level

an aggregative model of capital accumulation with leisure dependent utility this paper analyzes an aggregative optimal growth model where both consumption and leisure enter as arguments in the utility function if consumption and leisure are substitutes the model can generate multiple steady states if consumption and leisure are complements the optimal path may turn out to be cyclical preferences play an important role in determining the steady state to which the economy converges

optimal policy business cycles the effectiveness of economic policies depends on the nature of expectations under adaptive expectations the philipps curve allows a governement to surprise agents under rational expectations there is less room for economic policies we assume that only an endogenously determined proportion of agents form rational expectations and show that this leads the government to optimal policies which result in a policy cycle with real effects c 1998 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

exchange rate speculation and chaos inducing intervention abstract we show that in a market characterized by high volatility transactions designed to have a stabilizing effect may inadvertently induce chaos in the foreign exchange market for example excessive interventions by a central bank may lead to an increase in erratic behavior rather than to the calming of exchange rate movements

on endogenous competitive business cycles the belief that the long run equilibrium of a competitive monetary economy that does not experience any exogeneous shocks whether originating from the external environment or from policy should be modelled as a state that is stationary or perhaps growing at a constant rate seems to be deeply rooted in the mind of some economists

threshold models of interpersonal effects in consumer demand abstract whether one buys may be determined in part by how many others have when the correlation is positive we refer to bandwagon effects and when negative reverse bandwagons we construct demand schedules in the presence of such effects and with simple assumptions about supply investigate the existence of and approach to equilibrium stable price quantity equilibria exist but for many plausible parameter values equilibria are asymptotically unstable and system trajectories consist of cycles that can move with slight parameter changes via successive bifurcations into what has been called chaotic dynamics essentially indistinguishable from random noise these conditions occur despite assumptions of erfect information profit maximizing firms and utility maximizing individuals

commodity price fluctuations price dependent delays and nonlinearities as explanatory factors this paper develops a price adjustment model for a single commodity market with state dependent production and storage delays conditions for the equilibrium price to be stable are derived in terms of a variety of economic parameters when stability of the equilibrium price is lost a hopf bifurcation occurs giving rise to an oscillatory commodity price with a period between two and four times the equilibrium production storage delay

rational choice and erratic behaviour in this paper we show that rational choice in a stationary environment can lead to erratic behaviour when preferences depend on experience we mean by erratic behaviour choice sequences that do not converge to a long run stationary value or to any periodic pattern early investigations of the effects of experience on choice goes back to pareto see also benhabib 1979 some keynesian theories of the consumption function incorporate the effects of experience and habit formation on current levels of consumption duesenberry 1949 modigliani 1949 and brown 1952 a general model of experience dependent choice was described in day 1970 and investigated in day and kennedy 1971 while the specific issue of the existence of stable representable long run consumer demand when tastes vary endogenously has been treated by gorman 1967 pollak 1970 1976 weizsaicker 1971 mccarthy 1974 and hammond 1976 pollak gave conditions for the representability of long run choice when the equations of preference dependence are linear and utility additive hammond in a generalization of these findings provides conditions for stable representable long run choice when preferences are acyclic a condition which in essence assures convergence to a long run choice

delay differential neoclassical growth model abstract this paper develops a continuous time neoclassical growth model with time delay despite of its simple structure the resulting dynamic system shows emergence of erratic fluctuations in the capital accumulation process when the production function is unimodal and the delay in production is explicitly considered it complements the seminal paper of day 1982 in which a discrete time neoclassical growth model displayed chaotic behavior for some configurations of the propensity to save the growth rate of labor and the capital depreciation rate our analysis has at least two implications first nonlinearities and delay matter for a birth of aperiodic fluctuations of national product in the continuous time model second comparing the effects caused by two different time delays fixed and continuously distributed time delays reveals that the continuous time model with the former can generate complex fluctuations while the one with the latter generates simple fluctuations when the shape parameter of the density function is small and complex fluctuations when large

traffic congestion accessibility to employment and housing prices a study of single family housing market in los angeles county this study mainly addresses two main questions 1 whether traffic congestion negatively affects single family house price by constraining accessibility to jobs 2 whether congestion effects and

competitive equilibrium cycles recently there has been a surge of interest in endogenous business cycles that arise in competitive laissez faire economies in the context of standard overlapping generations economies conditions for the existence of equilibrium cycles have been given by grandmont 1983 and by benhabib and day 1982 models of the economy with extrinsic uncertainty or sunspots that have been developed by shell 1977 and by cass and shell 1983 see also balasko 1983 can also lead to equilibrium cycles

chaotic dynamics in credit constrained emerging economies abstract this paper analyzes the role of financial development as a source of endogenous instability in small open economies by assuming that firms face credit constraints our model displays a complex dynamic behavior with high period cycles or even chaotic dynamic patterns for intermediate values of the parameter representing the level of financial development of the economy we derive sufficient conditions for global stability and we prove that chaos appears via a border collision bifurcation the basic implication of our model is that economies experiencing a process of financial development are more unstable than both very underdeveloped and very developed economies

a puzzle for adaptive theory abstract over the life cycle aspirations for material goods grow commensurately with consumer wealth but aspirations for marriage and the number and quality of children do not change much the puzzle is why there is this difference between life domains in the extent to which aspirations adapt to actual circumstances the findings come from a cohort analysis of 1978 and 1994 survey responses on the good life

indeterminacy and endogenous fluctuations in two sector growth models with externalities abstract this paper discusses the influence of technological externalities on the dynamic properties of accumulation paths in a two sector growth model in discrete time following the recent paper of boldrin and rustichini 1994 in which the authors study indeterminacy in a particular case we first provide some necessary and or sufficient conditions for the indeterminacy of equilibria in the general two sector model we also provide some conditions for the existence of period two cycles when equilibria are indeterminate we prove finally that depending on the nature of externality indeterminacy may lead to the existence of quasi periodic paths

on the complicated price dynamics of a simple one dimensional discontinuous financial market model with heterogeneous interacting traders abstract we develop a financial market model with heterogeneous interacting agents market makers adjust prices with respect to excess demand chartists believe in the persistence of bull and bear markets and fundamentalists bet on mean reversion moreover speculators trade asymmetrically in over and undervalued markets and while some of them determine the size of their orders via linear trading rules others always trade the same amount of assets the dynamics of our model is driven by a one dimensional discontinuous map despite the simplicity of our model analytical graphical and numerical analysis reveals a surprisingly rich set of interesting dynamical behaviors

the emergence of equilibrium cycles in a monetary economy with a separable utility function abstract this paper analyzes the dynamic properties of the monetary economy when money held during the period induces some utility it is shown that the price level and real money balances may have chaotic dynamic paths even if the utility function is separable in real money balances and consumption a crucial point is that a constraint on the utility of money yields the wealth effect that inflation will reduce the real value of assets hence as in the overlapping generations model the conflict between substitution and wealth effects may cause globally stable periodic orbits as well as the complicated dynamics

infectious disease and preventive behavior in an overlapping generations model abstract this paper incorporates prevalence of disease and agent s preventive behavior i e health investment into a small open overlapping generations model and investigates the dynamic behaviors of the competitive equilibrium allocation using the model it is shown that agents prevalence elastic behaviors which are supported from empirical studies can be obtained and that such agents behaviors cause the cyclicity of the spread of disease we also show that although the agents preventive behavior in a competitive equilibrium may be insufficient because of the existence of external effects a one shot medical aid from foreign countries does not necessarily improve the agents welfare in the pareto sense

complex dynamics in a simple macro disequilibrium model abstract this study analyzes disequilibrium dynamics in a simple macro economic model constructed with micro foundation in which the behavior of individual economic agents concerning consumption labor supply employment output supply and the formation of expectation can be described by very simple and conventional monotonic functions it is demonstrated that despite that simplicity complex nonlinear dynamics may appear through the interaction of those individual behavior in different markets

durable capital and chaos in competitive business cycles abstract this study constructs an example of chaotic optimal accumulation that results from the existence of the limitation of capital depreciation an example is an extension of the model developed by weitzman

differential savings factor shares and endogenous growth cycles abstract the paper analyzes the dynamic properties of the neoclassical one sector growth model with differential savings in the sense of kaldor pasinetti the economy exhibits unstable steady states and fluctuations if the income distribution varies sufficiently and if shareholders save more than workers the paper analyzes in detail the dynamics for the case with a fixed proportions technology as well as with a smooth approximation if the savings propensities differ by an arbitrarily small amount the system exhibits topological chaos in the sense of li and yorke for an open set of production functions the analytical results are supplemented by numerical experiments

on endogenous growth with physical and human capital this paper presents a class of models in which agents may devote part of their nonleisure activities to going to school so as to increase the efficiency units of labor they supply to the firms and the wages they receive the interaction among the technology of human capital accumulation and agents preferences will determine endogenously the economy s rate of growth given a constant returns to scale technology for physical capital accumulation we characterize the set of steady states as a ray from the origin and show the global convergence of every off balanced path to some point on this ray further properties concerning the dynamic evolution of the state and control variables around the ray of steady states are also established our analysis is useful to understand the role played by the technologies of physical and human capital in the process of accumulation and to evaluate the impact of policies geared toward attaining higher levels of capital our results highlight the importance of human capital

the impact of return on collateral in a channel system we empirically investigate the relationship between the return on collateral and monetary policy implementation in the channel system recent developments in monetary theory suggest that the return on government assets which measures the opportunity cost of holding collateral should have negative impacts on the interest rate spread and the interbank market rate the central bank should set a higher spread when the return on collateral is below a cutoff but implements a lower spread when the return on collateral is higher than the cutoff the interbank market rate tends to lie above the policy target rate when the return on collateral is low and vice versa we use data from eurozone area and six industrialized countries to test these theoretical implications we propose two econometric models one is more structural and closely related to the monetary model to test the negative relationships and the other is based on the threshold autoregression model to detect the potential cutoffs our findings provide conditional support for the negative impact of return on collateral jel e40 e52 e58

forward looking behavior in ecb liquidity auctions evidence from the pre crisis period abstract using data from the pre crisis period we investigate banks joint bidding behavior in the ecb s main refinancing operations mro and longer term refinancing operations ltro we test whether banks bid at lower rates in mros before the ltro and at higher rates after the ltro compared to other operations we motivate this by findings from the auction literature suggesting that agents bidding behavior is forward looking and takes sequences of future auctions into account we offer two findings first we find that in general banks bid in the mro before the ltro at lower rates as compared to other mros moreover mro participants that also bid in the following ltro bid at even lower rates compared to peers not bidding in the ltro these findings support the hypothesis that banks view obtaining liquidity from the two operations as a substitute second we find that banks generally bid more aggressively in the mro after the ltro banks that participated also in the ltro preceding the mro bid at substantially higher rates these findings reflect that short banks with potentially large net liquidity needs in the mro after the ltro bid more aggressively although size plays a considerable role for bidding behavior the conclusions are valid for banks of different sizes

a multi level analysis of the variations in domestic property prices southern england 1980 87 it is argued that previous research on spatial variations in domestic property prices has failed to consider the multi level nature of the problem in describing underlying temporal trends and spatial patterns at the macro level it is necessary to take account of the attributes of individual properties at the micro level as an empirical illustration of the general approach a number of models are calibrated for southern england using sample data derived from building society mortgages

on impatience economic growth and the environmental kuznets curve a dynamic analysis of resource management the paper presents a dynamic analysis of natural resource management and investigates some key factors that affect optimal management and resource conservation using a recursive specification of time preferences we show how endogenous discounting and impatience can affect the motivation for both capital investments and environmental preservation we examine the relationships between economic growth and environmental quality endogenous discounting provides new insights in the economic dynamics underlying the environmental kuznets curve by treating growth as endogenous we examine how externalities and economic growth interact with each other we investigate how economic development can contribute to an increased demand for environmental preservation as an important new result we also show how poverty can contribute to environmental degradation

endogenous cycles in a stiglitz weiss economy the literature on financial imperfections and business cycles has focused onpropagation mechanisms in this paper we model a purereversion mechanism such that the economy may converge to a two period equilibrium cycle this mechanism confirms that financial imperfections may have a dramatic amplification effect unlike in some related models contracts are complete indexation is not assumed away the welfare properties of a possible stabilizing policy are analyzed the model itself is a dynamic extension of the well known stiglitz weiss model of lending under moral hazard although stylized the model still captures some important features of credit cycles

real business cycles in this paper we demonstrate how certain very ordinary economic principles lead maximizing individuals to choose consumption production plans that display many of the characteristics commonly associated with business cycles our explanation is entirely consistent with i rational expectations ii complete current information iii stable preferences iv no technological change v no long lived commodities vi no frictions or adjustment costs vii no government viii no money and ix no serial dependence in the stochastic elements of the environment we also provide a completely worked out example of the type of artificial economy we have in mind the time series properties of the example exhibit some major features of observed business cycles although this type of model may not be capable of explaining all of the regularities in actual business cycles we believe that it provides a useful well defined benchmark for assessing the relative importance of factors e g monetary disturbances

the dynamics of inequalities and unequal exchange of labor in intertemporal linear economies abstract introducing a concept of fairness of economic allocations namely exploitation as the unequal exchange of labor henceforth ue exploitation by generalizing roemer s 1981 1982a seminal models this paper aims to answer the following two questions in the context of an intertemporal economy with linear technology how is income and wealth inequality related or unrelated to the existence and persistence of ue exploitation what are the mechanisms driving the persistent existence of ue exploitation in growing economies agents are ue exploited resp exploiters if the amount of labor that they contribute to the economy is bigger resp smaller than the amount of labor received by them via their income it is proved first that ue exploitation is monotonically correlated to functional income inequality second it is shown that unless agents discount the future asset inequalities are necessary but not sufficient for the persistence of ue exploitation and capital accumulation leading to the disappearance of ue exploitation cannot be ruled out in equilibrium third it is shown that regardless of whether agents discount the future labor saving technical progress may yield sustained growth with persistent ue exploitation by keeping labor abundant relative to capital which restrains wages from rising unlike in models with differentiable production functions this mechanism does not rely on changes in the marginal productivity of inputs and it is entirely driven by the interaction between innovation and labor markets

non linear structure of a metzlerian inventory cycle model abstract this study considers optimizing behavior of an inventory holding firm its main purpose is to investigate a consistent microeconomic foundation of the non linear macrodynamic model that generates inventory cycles it solves present value maximization problems under two different specifications of expectation formations one is specifying expectation formation independently of the optimizing process of the firm i call it a myopic perfect formation of expectation the other is incorporating the expectation formation in the optimizing process i call it a dynamic perfect formation of expectation the analysis demonstrates that the firm with the myopic perfect formation can posses sufficient nonlinearity for generation of cyclical macrodynamics whereas the firm with the dynamic perfect formation cannot these results suggest that the myopic perfect treatment of expectations of economic agents can be a source of macro fluctuations like inventory cycles

nonlinear business cycle modelling abstract literature which employs nonlinearities to explain economic fluctuations commonly called business cycles is surveyed relaxation of the linearity assumption significantly increases the range of possible dynamic solution paths and introduces the possibility that business cycles are endogenously determined the dominant post war modelling strategy has been the frisch 1933 and slutsky 1937 inspired one of developing essentially log linear economic models which produce damped cycles or monotonic damping to propagate the energy provided by repeated random or autocorrelated shocks the cycle is exogenously driven since it would die out in the absence of shocks deterministic nonstochastic nonlinear models can produce a wide range of endogenous fluctuations including stable limit cycles growth cycles and chaotic output which have the appearance of random fluctuations further the same model can produce qualitatively different outputs according to starting and parameter values if the possibility of shocks to parameters is admitted then behaviour can change abruptly following shocks evidence on the existence of nonlinearities and chaos in macroeconomic time series is assessed and alternative approaches to modelling dynamic economic development related to the work of keynes marx schumpeter and shackle are discussed their ideas have not proved readily amenable to mathematical modelling but attempts to encapsulate some of them are reviewed