financial development and energy consumption evidence from a heterogeneous panel of asian countries abstract this paper examined relationships between financial development and energy consumption in asia for the period of 1980 2012 for the purpose of the empirical analysis it performed the heterogeneous panel causality test suggested by dumitrescu and hurlin 1 the findings of the panel cointegration test indicated that there was a long run equilibrium relationship between finance and energy consumption in the region moreover the heterogeneous panel causality test detected a unidirectional causality from energy consumption to financial development but not vice versa these results indicate that an expansion of energy usage could be a driving force behind financial development in asia

boom and bust cycles external imbalances and the real exchange rate when the current account balance and net capital outflows do not exactly offset each other international payment flows arise payment flows into a country push the real exchange rate up payment outflows push it down this article uses a model of optimal consumption and portfolio choice to determine the factors that drive international payment flows during boom and bust cycles it shows that during such episodes capital inflows first exceed the deficit on current account strengthening the currency later on when the return on domestic capital reverts to its normal level the current account recovers yet the overall decline of the net foreign asset position provokes a fall of the real exchange rate even below its initial level case studies of countries experiencing rapid economic expansions followed by economic and financial meltdowns confirm the article s theoretical predictions

the nexus between financial development and energy consumption in the eu a dynamic panel data analysis abstract the relationship between financial development and energy consumption has newly started to be discussed in energy economics literature this paper investigates this issue in the eu over the period 1990 2011 by using system gmm model no significant relationship is found in the eu27 the empirical results however provide strong evidence of the impact of the financial development on energy consumption in the old members greater financial development leads to an increase in energy consumption regardless of whether financial development stems from banking sector or stock market by contrast we find for the new members that the impact of financial development on energy consumption depends on how financial development is measured using bankindex the impact of financial development displays an inverted u shaped pattern while no significant relationship is detected once it is measured using stockindex

crises and exchange rate regimes time to break down the bipolar view we revisit the link between crises and exchange rate regimes err using a panel of 90 developed and developing countries over the period 1980 2009 we find that corner err are not more prone to crises compared to intermediate err this finding holds for different types of crises banking currency and debt and is robust to a wide set of alternative specifications consequently we clearly break down the traditional bipolar view countries that aim at preventing crisis episodes should focus less on the choice of the err and instead implement sound structural macroeconomic policies

electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in bangladesh revisited evidences abstract in this paper an attempt is being made to examine the causal relationship between per capita electricity consumption and per capita gdp of bangladesh using the vector error correction specified granger causality test to search their short run long run and joint causal relationships for the period of 1971 2008 empirical findings reveal that there is a short run unidirectional causal flow running from per capita electricity consumption to per capita gdp without feedback the presence of a positive short run causality explains that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic activity in bangladesh likewise results from joint causality exhibit the same as in short run by contrast long run results show a bi directional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth with feedback these findings can provide essential policy insights to design immediate and long term growth prospect for bangladesh keeping in mind its present planned growth strategy and dismal power and energy sector

collusion and overlending i introduction for a long time have korean companies been engaged in unbridled expansionism financed through loans inefficient octopus style management and over and duplicate investment thus expediting the structural failure of the economy this failure to concentrate on profits consolidation and efficiency provided the fuse to the bankruptcy bombs that triggered the foreign exchange and economic crises the collusion between the conglomerates financial sector and politicians made this financial monopoly possible chosun ilbo december 26 1997 collusion and overlending in the korean financial sector may be best illustrated by the above editorial highlight of chosun ilbo the most read newspaper in korea its 1997 financial crisis is primarily triggered by continual bankruptcies of chaebols conglomerates which with assistance from politicians had borrowed heavily from financial institutions in financing their investment projects 1 unlike some other asian countries experiencing problems in their financial sector due to shifts in investment projects toward real estates such as japan hong kong and thailand chaebols in korea concentrated mostly on manufacturing activities 2 in this study we establish a tractable model of overlending with three key players namely chaebols financial institutions and politicians as highlighted in chosun ilbo the model is designed to achieve two primary goals that are crucial for matching some key observations during the korean turmoil first we illustrate how overlending can be an equilibrium outcome with collusion between chaebols and politicians when the economic environment is favorable this occurs despite that such a collusion distorts normal borrowing lending operation by causing a discernible shift in loan composition from more to less productive investment projects second we show that as the economic environment gradually deteriorates there can be a shift from a collusion to a no collusion equilibrium the combination of deterioration in fundamentals and expectations of an equilibrium shift can trigger economy wide financial crisis more specifically we construct a simple principal supervisor agent model of corruption and overlending the principal is the formal authority of loan decision making of a financial institution or in short the financial institution the supervisor is a politician who serves as the informational intermediary in the borrowing lending arrangement via his her connections and networking 3 the agent is a chaebol of an unknown type which seeks for external financing of a set of risky projects a politician s favorable signal about the borrowing chaebol s overall performance would grant the approval of the loan to finance an array of risky projects whose returns depend on idiosyncratic shocks that cannot be washed out in aggregation within the chaebol as an outside alternative to making the loan the financial institution can invest in the world capital market where a fixed rate of return is guaranteed this portfolio decision depends on a comparison of the expected average returns on the given set of risky projects with the safe returns on investments in the world capital market while both the chaebol s type and the state of nature are unobservable to the financial institution we for simplicity assume that politician s connections and networking can fully uncover the true type of the chaebol this valuable information possessed by the politician is one that the financial institution has an incentive to purchase but a low type chaebol has an incentive to conceal whether the politician ends up revealing truthfully this information depends on how much to obtain from the lender in terms of general support versus how much to gain from the borrower in terms of bribes or side payments when a low type chaebol has the politician on its side information is distorted and a collusion equilibrium arises

carbon emissions energy consumption and industrial growth in bangladesh empirical evidence from ardl cointegration and granger causality analysis abstract this research aims to examine the empirical cointegration long and short run dynamics and causal relationships between carbon emissions energy consumption and industrial growth in bangladesh over the period of 1972 2011 the ardl bounds testing methodology and granger causality test in an augmented var framework are applied the ardl bounds tests as well as additional cross checking test convincingly confirmed long run cointegration between carbon emissions energy consumption and industrial production in bangladesh the industrial production and energy consumption have significant positive impact on the carbon emissions both in the short and long runs likewise granger causality analysis indicated a unidirectional causation both from industrial production and energy consumption to carbon emissions i e the industrial development or economic development in bangladesh is taking place at the cost of environmental quality

a new method of estimating risk aversion i show existing evidence on labor supply behavior places an upper bound on risk aversion in the expected utility model i derive a formula for the coefficient of relative risk aversion in terms of the ratio of the income elasticity of labor supply to wage elasticity and degree of complementarity between consumption and labor i bound the degree of complementarity using data on consumption choices when labor supply varies across states using labor supply elasticity estimates i find a mean estimate of 1 then show generating 2 requires that wage increases cause sharper labor supply reductions jel d81 j22

on the nexus of financial development economic growth and energy consumption in china new perspective from a gmm panel var approach abstract this paper studies the endogenous relationships among financial development energy consumption and economic growth in china by applying a gmm panel var approach with a panel data of 30 chinese provinces over the period 1996q1 2015q4 financial development is measured by six individual indicators and by a comprehensive indicator obtained through the pca method we also account for regional heterogeneity by dividing our sample into three regions eastern region central region and western region we underline our findings in three aspects first financial development measured by most individual indicators m2 credit revenue of the insurance industry and stock market value and the comprehensive one has a significantly negative impact on economic growth second energy consumption can significantly contribute to economic growth in all regions while no feedback effect is found except in the western region this result is further supported by the granger causality tests last financial development in the sense of m2 credit stock turnover and the comprehensive indicator can significantly lessen energy consumption in all regions but this inhibitory effect is found to be largest in the western region followed by the eastern region and be smallest in the central region the granger causality tests confirm further the existence of heterogeneity across regions a bidirectional granger causality between the two variables is found in the eastern region a unidirectional granger causality running from energy consumption to financial development is identified in the central region and no significant causal relationship shows up in the western region our findings provide valuable policy implications for china heading for a green economic growth

future demand scenarios of bangladesh power sector abstract data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system the purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in bangladesh forecast sector wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005 and compare the results with official projections the long range energy alternative planning leap model with three scenarios namely low gross domestic product gdp growth average gdp growth and high gdp growth is applied in this study in the low to high gdp growth scenarios the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased the findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development the study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in bangladesh to meet the high future demand

real aspects of exchange rate regime choice with collapsing fixed rates abstract typical evaluations of the choice of exchange rate regime examine the performance of the real economy and assume that the regimes last indefinitely in contrast actual regimes are quite transitory this paper examines how the predictions of two popular models for the determination of some real economic variables must be modified when agents rationally perceive that a fixed rate regime will be transitory the models studied are simple stochastic versions of the models in dornbusch 1976 and flood and marion 1982

optimal retirement with increasing longevity we develop an optimizing life cycle model of retirement with perfect capital markets we show that longer healthy life expectancy usually leads to later retirement but with an elasticity less than unity we calibrate our model using data from the us and find that over the last century the effect of rising incomes which promote early retirement has dominated the effect of rising lifespans our model predicts continuing declines in the optimal retirement age despite rising life expectancy provided the rate of real wage growth remains as high as in the last century

health and schooling investments in africa this paper first outlines an organizing framework for considering how health and schooling affect labor productivity and growth and how household and community factors can in turn affect the demand for these human capital investments both cross country growth models and various aspects of microeconomic studies of individual productivity as related to education and health are discussed the conclusion offers some tentative leads for policy in this area based on existing research and an agenda for future research

energy consumption financial development and economic growth in india new evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis this paper investigates the asymmetric relationship between energy consumption and economic growth by incorporating financial development capital and labour into a production function covering the indian economy from 1960q1 2015q4 the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach is applied to examine the asymmetric cointegration between the variables an asymmetric causality test is also employed to examine the causal association between the considered variables the results indicate cointegration between the variables in the presence of asymmetries the asymmetric causality results show that only negative shocks in energy consumption have impacts on economic growth in the same vein only negative shocks in financial development have impacts on economic growth by contrast symmetrically capital formation causes economic growth finally over the study period a neutral effect exists between the labour force and economic growth in india the implications of these results for growth policies in india are also discussed

the quantity and quality of life and the evolution of world inequality gdp per capita is usually used to proxy for the quality of life of individuals living in different countries welfare is also affected by quantity of life however as represented by longevity this paper incorporates longevity into an overall assessment of the evolution of cross country inequality and shows that it is quantitatively important the absence of reduction in cross country inequality up to the 1990s documented in previous work is in stark contrast to the reduction in inequality after incorporating gains in longevity throughout the post world war ii period health contributed to reduce significantly welfare inequality across countries this paper derives valuation formulas for infra marginal changes in longevity and computes a full growth rate that incorporates the gains in health experienced by 96 countries for the period between 1960 and 2000 incorporating longevity gains changes traditional results countries starting with lower income tended to grow faster than countries starting with higher income we estimate an average yearly growth in full income of 4 1 percent for the poorest 50 percent of countries in 1960 of which 1 7 percentage points are due to health as opposed to a growth of 2 6 percent for the richest 50 percent of countries of which only 0 4 percentage points are due to health additionally we decompose changes in life expectancy into changes attributable to 13 broad groups of causes of death and three age groups we show that mortality from infectious respiratory and digestive diseases congenital perinatal and ill defined conditions mostly concentrated before age 20 and between ages 20 and 50 is responsible for most of the reduction in life expectancy inequality at the same time the recent effect of aids together with reductions in mortality after age 50 due to nervous system senses organs heart and circulatory diseases contributed to increase health inequality across countries

the politics of speculative attacks in industrial democracies recent models of speculative currency crises contend that market expectations of policy behavior can trigger a speculative attack we argue that political processes and partisan objectives inform expectations about the government s commitment to the exchange rate first market actors anticipate periods when the partisan identity of a government may change through an election or a cabinet collapse second party labels provide information to currency traders about the policy objectives of a potential government consequently we contend that the probability of a speculative attack will be higher when markets expect the cabinet to end and when the cabinet dissolution is likely to produce a leftward shift in policy a discrete timesurvival model is used to estimate the probability that a cabinet will dissolve in any given month for sixteen parliamentary democracies from 1970 to 1995 the predicted values are then used as a proxy for market expectations in a model of speculative currency crises

regime switching effect of financial development on energy intensity evidence from markov switching vector error correction model abstract studies that deal with financial development and energy intensity usually show the single effect of one variable on another or the causality running between them during the whole sample period but this study is an attempt to explore the regime switching effect of financial development on energy intensity in different periods within the sample using yearly data from 1972 to 2017 in case of bangladesh a markov switching vector error correction model is applied to carry out the study and the results reveal a two regime switching nature of the effect of financial development on energy intensity financial development plays a stimulating role in regime 1 where it plays an inhibiting role in regime 2 to influence energy intensity the duration of regime 1 is longer than that of regime 2 specifying that the promoting effect of financial development on energy intensity is more enduring than the inhibiting effect in bangladesh the results have important policy implications to formulate energy policy and to maintain a balance between financial development and energy intensity in bangladesh and other emerging nations

exploring the depth of energy penetration in economic advancement perspective of bangladesh abstract developing countries consume a tiny share of world commercial energy this tempts policymakers in developing countries to sort out ways to increase commercial energy demand so that their invaluable resources are best utilized country like bangladesh may fall in trap if quickly declining and immensely valuable energy is wasted in unsustainable growth this urges for better use of its scarce resources for sustainable growth in this paper we aim to identify how energy consumption in bangladesh is related to various growth indicators like national income financial development industrialization and urbanization in the long run in search of a right path for sustainable development in this study we try to assess the relationship among energy consumption financial development economic growth industrialization and urbanization from 1980 to 2010 a number of cointegration techniques are employed to examine whether there is a long run relationship besides these we also employed augmented granger causality test to examine the causality if presents this study finds that financial development economic growth industrialization and urbanization have positive impact on energy consumption in short run but industrialization has no impact in the long run our causality test ensures that the above mentioned variables granger cause energy consumption for sustainable growth industrialization should be given priority as future consumption of energy in industrial sector will be greater than any other sector this future demand can only be fulfilled by injecting more and more renewable energy through solar wind and other technology as nonrenewable energy are declining quickly

does financial development increase energy consumption the role of industrialization and urbanization in tunisia this paper assesses the relationship among energy consumption financial development economic growth industrialization and urbanization in tunisia from 1971 to 2008 the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration and granger causality tests is employed for the analysis the result confirms the existence of long run relationship among energy consumption economic growth financial development industrialization and urbanization in tunisia long run bidirectional causalities are found between financial development and energy consumption financial development and industrialization and industrialization and energy consumption hence sound and developed financial system that can attract investors boost the stock market and improve the efficiency of economic activities should be encouraged in the country nevertheless promoting industrialization and urbanization can never be left out from the process of development we add light to policy makers with the role of financial development industrialization and urbanization in the process of economic development

seigniorage revenue deficits and self fulfilling currency crises abstract this paper examines potential resolutions to the conflict between a fixed exchange rate and seigniorage revenue requirement of a stylized developing economy that gives rise to a currency crisis the government has an informational advantage and can decide when it is optimal to invoke an escape clause i e to drop the peg and float speculators must guess when the crisis will happen based on their assessment of the probability of collapse and this makes pegged exchange rate equilibria unstable

the dynamics of natural gas consumption and gdp in bangladesh abstract reserves of natural gas in bangladesh are very large and total demand has increased secularly in recent years this paper examines the causal relationship between the consumption of natural gas and gdp in bangladesh over the period 1980 to 2010 we find that there is a positive unidirectional causality running from gdp to natural gas consumption movements in gdp affect the consumption of natural gas but not vice versa while our results rest on several statistical assumptions they support the pursuit of policies that are in line with energy conservation implementing these policies will be of particular significance in light of the fact that bangladesh s current reserves of natural gas will not meet its current level of consumption demand beyond the next two decades

causality relationship between electricity consumption and gdp in bangladesh in this paper we examine the causal relationship between the per capita electricity consumption and the per capita gdp for bangladesh using cointegration and vector error correction model our results show that there is unidirectional causality from per capita gdp to per capita electricity consumption however the per capita electricity consumption does not cause per capita gdp in case of bangladesh the finding has significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation emission reduction and economic development

uncertain lifetimes retirement and economic welfare the effect of increased life expectancy on retirement age is ambiguous because a change in the survival probability is analogous to a change in intertemporal prices it is shown that the decision to retire earlier or later depends on the old age saving behavior early retirement could emerge if one saves in old age it is also shown that the effect of intertemporal substitutions arising from the imperfection of the annuity market could produce a tilt to the reservation wage profile which in turn makes early retirement possible copyright 1991 by the london school of economics and political science

the impact of energy consumption and economic development on ecological footprint and co2 emissions evidence from a markov switching equilibrium correction model abstract reducing the impact of air pollution and global environmental degradation on human health and quality of life for qatari citizens represents the most important objective of the qatar national vision 2030 with respect to this vision this study investigates the effects of economic growth energy consumption trade openness urbanization and financial development on environmental degradation by using the markov switching equilibrium correction model with shifts in both the intercept and income per capita slope for the period 1970 2015 unlike existing studies and in addition to the co 2 emissions pollutant this paper uses the total ecological footprint and ecological carbon footprint as new proxies of environmental degradation empirical results show strong evidence for cointegration with markov shifts in particular our results show that the non control for breaks can hide the true relationship among variables the results show also that when controlling for breaks the environment kuznets curve ekc hypothesis holds for the co 2 emissions and ecological carbon footprint pollutants and the u shaped behavior holds for the total ecological footprint moreover the results show that these two behaviors ekc and u shaped are regime dependent regarding the other explanatory variables the results show that trade openness and urbanization worsen ecological footprint however the electricity consumption and financial development are positively related to the ecological footprint and negatively related to ecological carbon footprint and co 2 emissions finally we found evidence for the growth hypothesis for both pollutants based on these results a detailed economic energy and environmental policy is proposed and discussed for the case of qatar

buying and selling attacks on fixed exchange rate systems abstract in this paper we show how rational expectations models of speculative attacks on fixed exchange rate systems can be extended to take into account the possibility that the central bank could be forced to either devalue or revalue essential to the analysis are the concepts of buying attack and selling attack by means of which we were able to describe how expectations about the future exchange rate are formed we also provide a discussion on the problem of uniqueness of the equilibrium that may arise in this kind of speculative attack models

effects of financial development economic growth and trade on electricity consumption evidence from post fukushima japan abstract this study examines the long run and short run effects of financial development economic growth export imports and capital on the japanese energy predicaments as a result of the foregoing energy crisis in the country to ensure a robust outcome the study applied the extended cobb douglas production function and used time series data from 1970 to 2012 following to this structural break unit root test ardl bounds test approach to cointegration and the johansen cointegration test were applied in addition the vecm granger causality framework was used in determining the causal relationship between the variables the findings of the study establish that in the long run a 1 rise in financial development economic growth exports and imports in japan will exert a significant pressure on the japanese electricity consumption by 0 2429 0 5040 0 0921 and 0 2193 respectively however capital was found to decline energy consumption in all material respect in the short run the study discovered how a 1 rise in the dynamics of financial development economic growth exports and imports to add to the japanese electricity predicaments by 0 2210 0 5840 0 0521 and 0 2031 respectively the existence of the feedback relationship between most of the variables was discovered while economic growth exports imports and trade openness were found to granger cause electricity consumption the study advocates the adoption of massive but competitive renewable energy system in japan how it should be done and why it should be done are carefully set by this study

the cyclical and secular behaviour of the labour input comparing efficiency units and hours worked summary a monthly labour input series designed to correct for the fact that all hours worked are not of the same quality is constructed and its properties compared with unadjusted hours worked this efficiency units series is constructed from bls data on hours worked and earnings by age and sex the cyclical fluctuations displayed by the efficiency units series are smaller on average than those displayed by hours worked although the difference is not large however the secular behaviour of the series is quite different hours worked per capita displays a significant positive trend while efficiency units per capita does not

economic growth population theory and physiology the bearing of long term processes on the this lecture sketches a theory of the secular decline in morbidity and mortality that takes account of changes induced in physiological functioning since 1700 the synergism between technological and physiological improvements has produced a form of human evolution biological though not genetic rapid culturally transmitted and not necessarily stable which is still ongoing in both oecd and developing countries thermodynamic and physiological aspects of economic growth are defined and their impact on growth rates is assessed implications of this theory for population forecasting measurement of national income demand for leisure pension policies and demand for health care are considered excerpt

expectations life expectancy and economic behavior this study analyzes responses to a questionnaire designed to elicit subjective expectations and probabilities of survival people do extrapolate past improvements in longevity when they determine their subjective horizons and they are fully aware of levels of and movements within todays life tables the subjective distribution has greater variance than its actuarial counterpart and the subjective variance decreases with age the implications of these findings for optimal social security for the construction of annuities for the analysis of savings behavior and for evaluating lifetime earnings are discussed the data were collected in the united states from a sample of 411 white male economists and a sample of 363 white males in a midwestern smsa excerpt

china s changing energy intensity trend a decomposition analysis china experienced a dramatic decline in energy intensity from the onset of economic reform in the late 1970s until 2000 but since then the rate of decline slowed and energy intensity actually increased in 2003 most previous studies found that most of the decline was due to technological change but disagreed on the role of structural change to the best of our knowledge no decomposition study has investigated the role of inter fuel substitution in the decline in energy intensity or the causes of the rise in energy intensity since 2000 in this paper we use logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi techniques to decompose changes in energy intensity in the period 1980 2003 we find that 1 technological change is confirmed as the dominant contributor to the decline in energy intensity 2 structural change at the industry and sector sub industry level actually increased energy intensity over the period of 1980 2003 although the structural change at the industry level was very different in the 1980s and in the post 1990 period 3 structural change involving shifts of production between sub sectors however decreased overall energy intensity 4 the increase in energy intensity since 2000 is explained by negative technological progress 5 inter fuel substitution is found to contribute little to the changes in energy intensity

a model of the demand for longevity and the value of life extension we specify a demand function for longevity or quantity of life along with corresponding demand functions for indicators of quality of life and a value of health and life extension function we show that the demand for health must be derived in conjunction with that for longevity and the related consumption plan and that all choices depend on initial individual endowments and terminal conditions our comparative dynamics predictions indicate that optimal health and longevity are increasing functions of endowed wealth rather than necessarily current income that improvements in opportunities to produce health can accentuate the differences between endowed health and attained longevity levels and that the value individuals ascribe to their health may be increasing over a good portion of their life cycle we use this model to analyze observed empirical variations in levels and trends of life expectancy and in exposure to health risks across different population groups

does financial agglomeration promote the increase of energy efficiency in china abstract whether financial agglomeration is conducive to the improvement of energy efficiency is of great significance for china to better follow the path of energy conservation and emission reduction and green sustainable development based on the balanced panel data of 285 cities in china from 2005 to 2017 this paper analyzes the impact of financial agglomeration on energy efficiency theoretical analysis shows that financial agglomeration can influence energy efficiency through scale economy effect innovation driving effect information spillover effect and structural adjustment effect dynamic spatial econometric results show that from a national perspective financial agglomeration has a positive impact on energy efficiency however from the perspective of different regions and different city sizes it is found that financial agglomeration can have different effects on energy efficiency financial agglomeration has a significant positive impact on energy efficiency in eastern and central regions megacities and big cities financial agglomeration has a significant negative impact on energy efficiency in western china and has no significant effect on energy efficiency in medium sized and small cities finally based on the conclusions of the study specific proposals for financial agglomeration to improve energy efficiency are proposed

indexing and inflation abstract much of the opposition to indexation as a means of adapting to ongoing inflation arises from the view that indexation is itself inflationary this paper examines the basic for that view in a simple macroeconomic model in which budget deficits are in part financed through the printing of money it is shown that all aspects of indexing wage indexation bond indexation and tax indexation tend to increase the impact on the price level of any inflationary shock however this association between indexation and inflation is in large part a consequence of the monetary and fiscal policies being followed by the government evidence from a cross section of forty countries on the effects of indexation on the inflationary impact of the oil price shock of 1973 1974 suggests that indexation did not in general increase the inflationary impact of the oil shock the evidence is further consistent with the view that the absence of an excess inflationary effect of indexation is a result of the countries with substantial indexation not having accommodated the oil price shock as much as other countries

the contribution of female health to economic development we analyze the economic consequences for less developed countries of investing in female health we do this through developing and calibrating a novel micro founded dynamic general equilibrium model in which parents trade off the number of children against investments in their education and in which we allow for health related gender differences in productivity we show that better female health speeds up the demographic transition and thereby the take off toward sustained economic growth by contrast male health improvements delay the transition and take off because ceteris paribus they raise fertility investing in female health is therefore a potent lever for promoting development

financial development and energy consumption in central and eastern european frontier economies this study examines the impact of financial development on energy consumption in a sample of 9 central and eastern european frontier economies several different measures of financial development are examined including bank related variables and stock market variables the empirical results obtained from dynamic panel demand models show a positive and statistically significant relationship between financial development and energy consumption when financial development is measured using banking variables like deposit money bank assets to gdp financial system deposits to gdp or liquid liabilities to gdp of the three stock market variables investigated only one stock market turnover has a positive and statistically significant impact on energy consumption both short run and long run elasticities are presented the implications of these results for energy policy are discussed

delaying the inevitable interest rate defense and balance of payments crises the classical model of balance of payments crises implicitly assumes that the central bank sits passively as international reserves dwindle in practice however central banks typically defend pegs aggressively by raising short term interest rates this paper analyzes the feasibility and optimality of raising interest rates to delay a potential bop crisis interest rate policy works through two distinct channels by raising demand for domestic interest bearing liquid assets higher interest rates tend to delay the crisis higher interest rates however increase public debt service and imply higher future inflation which tends to bring forward the crisis we show that under certain conditions it is feasible to delay the crisis but raising interest rates beyond a certain point may actually hasten the crisis a similar nonmonotonic relationship emerges between welfare and the increase in interest rates it is thus optimal to engage in some active interest rate defense but only up to a certain point i

how does financial development affect energy consumption evidence from 21 transitional countries abstract financial development significantly impacts energy consumption this paper uses cross country panel data from 21 transitional countries for the period 2006 2015 while considering different financial development indicators and nonlinear relationships between financial development and energy consumption this is done by selecting five financial development indicators to measure financial development and testing linear and nonlinear relationships between financial development and energy consumption it found the following first there are no significant linear relationships between financial development and energy consumption financial development does have significant nonlinear impacts on energy consumption in transitional countries with estimated nonlinear parameters that are significant second financial development affects energy consumption in transitional countries in differing ways financial intermediation development positively affected energy consumption in all the countries studied stock markets development led decreased energy consumption in china and poland financial openness development reduced energy use except in georgia and the kygyz republic

optimal choice of health and retirement in a life cycle model abstract we examine within a life cycle model the simultaneous choice of health care and retirement together with consumption health tends to have an impact on retirement through morbidity determining earnings and the disutility of work and through longevity determining the need to accumulate retirement wealth conversely the age of retirement drives the demand for health care through the value of survival and the value of morbidity reductions we characterise the optimal relationship between health expenditure and retirement and apply our model to analyse the effects of moral hazard in the annuity market while moral hazard always induces excessive health investments and an excessive duration of working life it also triggers an excessive level of consumption if the impact of health on the disutility of work is sufficiently large we examine a transfer scheme and mandatory retirement as policies towards curtailing moral hazard numerical analysis illustrates the role of moral hazard in shaping the life cycle allocation

optimal wage indexation foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy this paper deals with the design of optimal monetary policy and with the interaction between the optimal degrees of wage indexation and foreign exchange intervention the model is governed by the characteristics of the stochastic shocks which affect the economy and by the information set that individuals possess because of cost of negotiations nominal wages are assumed to be precontracted and wage adjustments follow a simple indexation rule that links wage changes to observed changes in price the use of the price level as the only indicator for wage adjustments may not permit an efficient use of available information and may result in welfare loss the analysis specifies the optimal set of feedback rules that should govern policy aiming at the minimization of the welfare loss these feedback rules determine the optimal response of monetary policy to changes in exchange rates interest rates and foreign prices the adoption of the optimal set of feedback rules results in the complete elimination of the welfare cost arising from the simple indexation rule and from the existence of nominal contracts since optimal policies succeed in the elimination of the distortions issues concerning the nature of contracts and the implications of specific assumptions about disequilibrium positions become inconsequential the analysis then proceeds to examine the interdependence between the optimal feedback rules and the optimal degree of wage indexation it is shown that a rise in the degree of exchange rate flexibility raises the optimal degree of wage indexation one of the key conclusions is the proposition that the number of independent feedback rules that govern a policy must equal the number of independent sources of information that influence the determination of the undistorted equilibrium thus it is shown that with a sufficient number of feedback rules for monetary policy there may be no need to introduce wage indexation it is also shown that an economy that is not this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

on non uniqueness in rational expectations models an attempt at perspective abstract many macroeconomic models involving rational expectations give rise to an infinity of solution paths even when the models are linear in all variables some writers have suggested that this non uniqueness constitutes a serious weakness for the rational expectations hypothesis one purpose of the present paper is to argue that the non uniqueness in question is not properly attributable to the rationality hypothesis but instead is a general feature of dynamic models involving expectations it is also argued that there typically exists in a very wide class of linear rational expectations models a single solution that excludes bubble or bootstrap effects one that occur only because they are arbitrarily expected to occur a systematic procedure for obtaining solutions free from such effects is introduced and discussed in addition this procedure is used to interpret and reconsider several prominent examples with solution multiplicities including ones developed by fischer black and john b taylor

the impact of growth energy and financial development on the environment in china a cointegration analysis this article aims to investigate the impact of financial development economic growth and energy consumption on environmental pollution in china from 1953 to 2006 using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing procedure the main objective is to examine the long run equilibrium relationship between financial development and environmental pollution the results of the analysis reveal a negative sign for the coefficient of financial development suggesting that financial development in china has not taken place at the expense of environmental pollution on the contrary it is found that financial development has led to a decrease in environmental pollution it is concluded that carbon emissions are mainly determined by income energy consumption and trade openness in the long run moreover the findings confirm the existence of an environmental kuznets curve in the case of china

determinants and costs of current account reversals under heterogeneity and serial correlation using large panel data sets for analysis of determinants and costs of reversals asks for controls of latent heterogeneity among countries this article performs a bayesian analysis which allows for a parsimonious yet flexible handling of country specific heterogeneity via random coefficients and serially correlated errors consideration of persistence within the employed macroeconomic data is important to gauge the impact of explaining variables suggested by theory correctly bayesian specification tests provide evidence in favour of models incorporating heterogeneity and serial correlation the results suggest that costs of reversals are overestimated when country specific heterogeneity is neglected and stress the importance of external variables in explaining current account reversals results are checked for robustness against the underlying reversal definition

financial development and international trade is there a link the author explores a possible link between financial development and trade in manufactures his theoretical model focuses on the role of financial intermediaries in facilitating large scale high return projects results show that economies with better developed financial sectors have a comparative advantage in manufacturing industries he provides evidence for this hypothesis first proposed by kletzer and bardhan 1987 using a 30 year panel of data for 65 countries controlling for country specific effects and possible reverse causality he shows that financial development exerts a large causal impact on the level of both exports and the trade balance of manufactured goods

learning large deviations and recurrent currency crises this article studies a version of obstfeld s journal of international economics 43 1997 61 77 escape clause model the model is calibrated to produce three rational expectations equilibria two of these equilibria are e stable and one is unstable dynamics are introduced by assuming that agents must learn about the government s decision rule it is assumed they do this using a stochastic approximation algorithm it turns out that as a certain parameter describing the sensitivity of beliefs to new information gets small the algorithm converges to a small noise diffusion process the dynamics of exchange rate changes are then characterized using large deviation techniques from freidlin and wentzell random perturbations of dynamical systems second edition berlin springer verlag 1998 these methods describe the sense in which the limiting distribution of exchange rate changes is approximated by a two state markov switching process where the two states correspond to the two e stable equilibria the model is calibrated to the exchange rate histories of argentina brazil and mexico currency crises in these countries resemble the predicted escape routes of the model a key feature of these escape routes is that expectations of a devaluation erupt suddenly without large contemporaneous shocks this is consistent with evidence showing that crises are often poorly anticipated by financial markets

output variability under monetary policy and exchange rate rules this paper examines the controversy concerning the relative desirability of fixed versus flexible exchange rates by examining whether a country can achieve a smaller variance of domestic output around its full employment path operating under an exchange rate rule or under a money supply rule the paper finds that neither policy will always dominate the other however it does find that if shocks in one market of the economy are large relative to shocks to other markets then one type of rule can be shown to dominate the other

the short and long run causality relationship among economic growth energy consumption and financial development evidence from south mediterranean countries smcs abstract this study aims at examining the short run and long run causal link between economic growth energy consumption and financial development by using data set of 6 smcs for the 1995 2015 periods the basic testing procedure requires four steps adf and pp unit root tests bound tests for co integration ardl approach and vecm method the results confirm cointegration between the variables it means that the long run relationship exists the short run causal relationships unidirectional exist at least once for each country except egypt the granger causality results for individual countries give mixed results these results urge for the attention of the policy makers in smcs to design a comprehensive energy conservation policy to minimize the consequences of massive energy consumption on economic growth by adding financial development

flexible exchange rates and stabilizing speculation abstract this paper re establishes the superiority of flexible exchange rates in small open economy models characterized by an efficient foreign exchange market and short run imperfections in the product labor market

energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth nexus in bangladesh cointegration and dynamic causality analysis abstract the paper investigates the possible existence of dynamic causality between energy consumption electricity consumption carbon emissions and economic growth in bangladesh first we have tested cointegration relationships using the johansen bi variate cointegration model this is complemented with an analysis of an auto regressive distributed lag model to examine the results robustness then the granger short run the long run and strong causality are tested with a vector error correction modelling framework the results indicate that uni directional causality exists from energy consumption to economic growth both in the short and the long run while a bi directional long run causality exists between electricity consumption and economic growth but no causal relationship exists in short run the strong causality results indicate bi directional causality for both the cases a uni directional causality runs from energy consumption to co 2 emission for the short run but feedback causality exists in the long run co 2 granger causes economic growth both in the short and in the long run an important policy implication is that energy electricity as well can be considered as an important factor for the economic growth in bangladesh moreover as higher energy consumption also means higher pollution in the long run policy makers should stimulate alternative energy sources for meeting up the increasing energy demand

gold monetization and gold discipline gold and its price have emerged as frequent topics of both academic and government debate 2 public attention focused on the gold market since gold s price began fluctuating violently in 1980 and 1981 has turned to gold as a possible means of removing some discretion inherent in the current fiat money system since lack of adherence to monetary rules can lead to problems of dynamic policy inconsistency academic economists have begun seriously to reconsider monetary standards based either on gold or on some other commodity as politically feasible methods of establishing rules 3

explaining the duration of exchange rate pegs abstract this paper is an empirical investigation of the duration of exchange rate pegs in 16 latin american countries and jamaica we identify factors that influence peg duration using logit analysis the real exchange rate and the level of international liquidity are significant determinants of the monthly likelihood of devaluation structural variables such as the openness of an economy and its geographical trade concentration and political variables such as changes in the executive also significantly affect the likelihood of a devaluation there is some evidence that the likelihood of a devaluation first rises and subsequently declines during the first year of a peg

longevity and life cycle savings we add health and longevity to a standard model of life cycle saving and show that under plausible assumptions increases in life expectancy lead to higher savings rates at every age even when retirement is endogenous in a stationary population these higher savings rates are offset by increased old age dependency but during the disequilibrium phase when longevity is rising the effect on aggregate savings rates can be substantial we find empirical support for this effect using a cross country panel of national savings rates

linking financial development economic growth and energy consumption in pakistan abstract this paper aims at exploring the finance growth energy nexus for pakistan over the 1972 2012 period by employing the system gmm estimation technique the study tries to capture the impact of financial development over energy consumption through economic growth channel and includes energy prices and urbanization in the structural model the study finds positive and significant impact of economic growth and urbanization on energy consumption while the effect of energy prices over energy consumption is significant but negative financial development positively and significantly affects energy consumption through the economic growth channel our analysis is important for policy makers for effective energy demand planning and conservation policies that would ensure sustainable economic development as well as serve as motivation to search alternative energy sources to meet the bourgeoning energy demand in pakistan

reserve accumulation and financial crises from individual protection to systemic risk abstract this paper provides a new perspective on the relationship between countries international reserve holdings and financial crises while the local view holds that reserves may prevent domestic crises it overlooks that the accumulation of reserves relaxes the financing constraint of the reserve currency country and may cause a financial crisis in the centre which is transmitted globally according to this global view reserve accumulation might destabilize the international financial system since the crisis affects all countries alike the accumulation of reserves imposes a negative externality on non accumulating countries we integrate this idea in a theoretical model of the optimal amount of reserves and illustrate the gap between local and global optimality the consideration of systemic risk lowers the demand for reserves moreover if a supranational authority determines the optimal level of reserves it internalizes the negative externality and accumulates fewer reserves a macroprudential tax on reserve hoardings might implement the socially optimal solution our calibration analysis shows that these considerations are economically significant they lower the optimal amount of reserves in the benchmark case by 45

the transmission of disturbances under alternative exchange rate regimes with optimal indexing the paper develops a general stochastic macroeconomic model that can be used to study the international transmission of disturbances under four alternative exchange rate systems uniform flexible exchange rates uniform fixed exchange rates and two versions of two tier exchange rates the analysis makes two general points first one cannot assume stability of structure when assessing the consequences of alternative exchange rate regimes for example the slope of the aggregate supply curve and the rationally formed expectations in the asset markets can respond dramatically to the government s choice of exchange rate regime second exchange rate regimes that provide full insulation from foreign disturbances may nevertheless be inferior to other regimes in terms of their ability to maximize social welfare

how many times again will we examine the energy income nexus using a limited range of traditional econometric tools during the last three decades following closely the developments in econometric theory energy and environmental economists have empirically examined the energy income nexus for different countries and time periods however today in spite of the growing interest in this area the state of knowledge is still controversial and unsettled this viewpoint paper attempts to highlight some of the issues related to the existing literature on the long run relationship and causality between energy consumption and economic growth in particular it discusses how it is difficult to make policy recommendations on the basis of inconsistent and conflicting results in the published literature on the subject in order to do so the paper first illustrates the increasing trend in the number of studies published in this area providing also a brief comparison of the conventional methods used to estimate the energy income nexus it then deals with new directions and different viewpoints on the same issue

to defer or not defer uk state pension and work decisions in a lifecycle model the uk state pension which depends only on age includes an option to defer take up which yields either a subsequent lump sum or higher weekly pension we analyse the joint decisions on pension deferral and intertemporal labour supply participation in a lifecycle setting we show that deferral is purely a financial decision but the impact of deferral on work decisions depends on preferences wage rates non labour income and initial wealth to exactly characterize this we use a quasilinear utility function and provide calibrated simulations we also discuss the choice between a lump sum or increased weekly pension

the impact of financial development on energy consumption in emerging economies abstract financial development is often cited as a very important driver of economic growth in emerging economies and it is thus likely that financial development affects energy demand this study uses generalized method of moments estimation techniques to examine the impact of financial development on energy consumption in a sample of emerging countries several different measures of financial development are examined using a panel data set on 22 emerging countries covering the period 1990 2006 the empirical results show a positive and statistically significant relationship between financial development and energy consumption when financial development is measured using stock market variables like stock market capitalization to gdp stock market value traded to gdp and stock market turnover the implications of these results for energy policy are discussed

monetary policy in a markov switching vector error correction model monetary policy vector autoregressions vars typically presume stability of the long run outcomes we introduce the possibility of switches in the long run equilibrium in a cointegrated var by allowing both the covariance matrix and weighting matrix in the error correction term to switch we find that monetary policy alternates between sustaining long run growth and disinflationary regimes allowing state changes can also help explain the price puzzle and justify the use of commodity prices as a corrective measure finally we show that regime switching has implications for disinflationary monetary policy and can explain the variety of sacrifice ratio estimates that exist in the literature

the value of life and the rise in health spending over the past half century americans spent a rising share of total economic resources on health and enjoyed substantially longer lives as a result debate on health policy often focuses on limiting the growth of health spending we investigate an issue central to this debate is the growth of health spending a rational response to changing economic conditions notably the growth of income per person we develop a model based on standard economic assumptions and argue that this is indeed the case standard preferences of the kind used widely in economics to study consumption asset pricing and labor supply imply that health spending is a superior good with an income elasticity well above one as people get richer and consumption rises the marginal utility of consumption falls rapidly spending on health to extend life allows individuals to purchase additional periods of utility the marginal utility of life extension does not decline as a result the optimal composition of total spending shifts toward health and the health share grows along with income in projections based on the quantitative analysis of our model the optimal health share of spending seems likely to exceed 30 percent by the middle of the century

the long run and causal analysis of energy growth openness and financial development on carbon emissions in turkey abstract the aim of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between financial development trade economic growth energy consumption and carbon emissions in turkey for the 1960 2007 period the bounds f test for cointegration test yields evidence of a long run relationship between per capita carbon emissions per capita energy consumption per capita real income the square of per capita real income openness and financial development the results show that an increase in foreign trade to gdp ratio results an increase in per capita carbon emissions and financial development variable has no significant effect on per capita carbon emissions in the long run these results also support the validity of ekc hypothesis in the turkish economy it means that the level of co 2 emissions initially increases with income until it reaches its stabilization point then it declines in turkey in addition the paper explores causal relationship between the variables by using error correction based granger causality models

life expectancy and endogenous growth we consider an overlapping generations model with uncertain lifetime and endogenous growth individuals have to choose the length of time devoted to schooling before starting to work we show that it depends positively on life expectancy but that the positive effect of a longer life on growth could be offset by a decrease in the participation rate dynamics are characterized by a delay differential equation and human capital converges with oscillations to a balanced growth path

currency crises with the threat of an interest rate defence while virtually all currency crisis models recognise that the decision to abandon a peg depends on how tenaciously policy makers defend it this is seldom modelled explicitly we add the threat of an interest rate defence to the global game model of morris and shin american economic review 88 1998 with an endogenous defence actions of speculators may become strategic substitutes instead of the usual complements nevertheless our generalised model remains tractable and has a unique threshold equilibrium it provides additional insights for instance the threat of an interest rate defence makes speculation riskier and this may be sufficient to keep speculators out when fundamentals are still relatively strong

regime switching model of us crude oil and stock market prices 1859 to 2013 this paper examines the relationship between us crude oil and stock market prices using a markov switching vector error correction model and a monthly data set from 1859 to 2013 the sample covers the entire modern era of the petroleum industry which typically begins with the first drilled oil well in titusville pennsylvania in 1858 we estimate a two regime model that divides the sample into high and low volatility regimes based on the variance covariance matrix of the oil and stock prices we find that the high volatility regime more frequently exists prior to the great depression and after the 1973 oil price shock caused by the organization of petroleum exporting countries the low volatility regime occurs more frequently when the oil markets fell largely under the control of the major international oil companies from the end of the great depression to the first oil price shock in 1973 using the national bureau of economic research business cycle dates we also find that the high volatility regime more likely occurs when the economy experiences a recession

the international monetary system forty years after bretton woods review essay in may 1984 a distinguished group of central bankers and economists gathered for a conference at bretton woods to consider the evolution of the world monetary system that was born at that location forty years earlier this volume contains nine essays with accompanying discussion on issues of performance and reform of current international monetary arrangements these papers deal with problems facing the industrialized and the lessdeveloped countries and assess the institutions that have been set up to accommodate these problems the major accomplishments of the original bretton woods conference were of course the establishment of the system of payments based on fixed exchange rates and the organization of the world bank and the international monetary fund as the order developed in the late 40 s and early 50 s each central bank saw it as its duty to intervene in foreign exchange markets to ensure an essentially fixed parity of their currency with respect to the dollar the role of the u s was to guarantee the dollar price of gold at 35 an ounce the system has been called a dollar standard because the dollar played the role of a reserve currency one of the paradoxes of the system as robert triffin pointed out in the early 60 s is that in order to produce a continuing and rapid enough expansion of world reserves the u s had to run balance of payments deficits yet continued deficits by the u s threatened the convertibility of the dollar into gold as it happened the system of fixed parities broke down in the early 70 s not because of a lack of reserves but because a glut of dollars made the bretton woods dollar exchange rates untenable the system eventually evolved into one in which most of the industrialized countries currencies more or less are determined by the market while the currencies of most second and third world countries are pegged to a major currency the floating period has been

longevity and lifetime labor supply evidence and implications conventional wisdom suggests that increased life expectancy had a key role in causing a rise in investment in human capital i incorporate the retirement decision into a version of ben porath s 1967 model and find that a necessary condition for this causal relationship to hold is that increased life expectancy will also increase lifetime labor supply i then show that this condition does not hold for american men born between 1840 and 1970 and for the american population born between 1890 and 1970 the data suggest similar patterns in western europe i end by discussing the implications of my findings for the debate on the fundamental causes of long run growth

the lifetime of a unilateral target zone some extended results abstract in dumas and svensson journal of international economics 36 1994 467 the lifetime of a krugman quarterly journal of economics 106 1991 669 682 type target zone model is found to be extremely long this paper shows that the lifetime of the identical target zone regime can be much lower when real disturbances occur in particular the mean lifetime is found to be very low when real disturbances occur and the real exchange rate elasticity of the demand for domestic goods is very low it is also shown that allowing for monetary disturbances to have real effects has very little effect on the lifetime the results indicate the conditions under which real disturbances might trigger currency crises

collapsing exchange rate regimes some linear examples abstract we construct a pair of linear examples to study the collapse time of a fixed exchange rate regime the first example is a perfect foresight continuous time model which allows calculation of the exact collapse time and the tracking of reserves the second example is a discrete time stochastic model which yields an endogenous probability distribution over the collapse time and produces a forward discount of the exchange rate

bank firm relationships and contagious banking crises this paper argues that in an open economy a banking system with close bank firm relationships may be easily subject to contagious banking crises because it is difficult to distinguish between crony capitalism and good main bank relationships 1 show that if international investors cannot distinguish the bank type the distinction between crony capitalism and good main bank relationships becomes very fuzzy in particular the model can explain sequences of bank defaults within a country even if the insolvent banks are very few ex ante as well as sequences of banking crises among countries that are equally rated by international investors but indeed differ in the ex ante solvency of their banking system

the role of globalization on the recent evolution of energy demand in india implications for sustainable development using annual data for the period 1971 2012 this study explores the relationship between globalization and energy consumption for india by endogenizing economic growth financial development and urbanization the cointegration test proposed by bayer hanck 2013 is applied to estimate the long run and short run relationships among the variables after confirming the existence of cointegration the overall results from the estimation of an ardl energy demand function reveal that in the long run the acceleration of globalization measured in three dimensions economic social and overall globalization leads to a decline in energy demand in india furthermore while financial development is negatively related to energy consumption economic growth and urbanization are the key factors leading to increased energy demand in the long run these results have policy implications for the sustainable development of india in particular globalization and financial development provide a win win situation for india to increase its economic growth in the long run and become more environmentally sustainable

compression of morbidity and the labor supply of older people this article tests whether there is evidence of compression of morbidity using health and retirement study hrs data and analyses the effects of this on the labour supply of older people we find younger cohorts to suffer less from functional problems than older cohorts at given ages furthermore we observe that instrumentalized disability has a negative effect on labour force participation according to the cohort analysis and the multivariate analysis it can be concluded that individuals will be able to work longer because of the delay in the onset of disability problems

life expectancy human capital social security and growth we analyze the effects of changes in the mortality rate upon life expectancy education retirement age human capital and growth in the presence of social security we build a vintage growth overlapping generations model in which individuals choose the length of education and the age of retirement and where unfunded social security pensions depend on workers past contributions social security has a positive effect on education but pension benefits favor reductions in retirement age the net effect is that starting from a benchmark case higher life expectancies give rise to lower per capita gdp growth in the presence of social security as the share of the active population is reduced in addition higher social security contribution rates reduce the growth rate of per capita gdp

decomposition of us manufacturing energy intensity and elasticities of components with respect to energy prices this paper proposes an analysis of changes in the us manufacturing energy intensity between 1974 and 1998 the starting point is a three term decomposition of an intensity index which evaluates annually the respective contributions of changes in industrial structure efficiency gains at the sectoral level and substitution between energy resources to aggregate productivity improvements then we study the time paths followed by each of these three components using spectral analysis techniques we show that they behave very differently as the structural influence plays a part mainly in the short run substitution between energy resources acts principally in the long run and the changes in sectoral intensity cause both trend variations and cyclical ones finally we focus on the effect of energy price evolution on each of the three components allowing energy price rises and decreases to have asymmetric effects we estimate both the long run impacts and the short run adjustments

mortality transition and differential incentives for early retirement existing studies investigating the effect of mortality decline on retirement age usually specify the human mortality pattern in a parametric way and consider the derivative of optimal retirement age with respect to a change in the survival parameter however a survival parameter change affects the mortality rates at different ages simultaneously motivated by the stylized fact that mortality decline affects primarily younger people in the early phase of a mortality transition but mainly older people in the later phase we study the more fundamental question of how a mortality change at an arbitrary age affects optimal retirement age by using the volterra derivative for a functional we show that a mortality decline at an older age unambiguously leads to a later retirement age but a mortality decline at a younger age may lead to earlier retirement because of the substantial increase in the individual s expected lifetime human wealth

energy and output dynamics in bangladesh the relationship between energy consumption and output is still ambiguous in the existing literature the economy of bangladesh having spectacular output growth and rising energy demand as well as energy efficiency in recent decades can be an ideal case for examining energy output dynamics we find that while fluctuations in energy consumption do not affect output fluctuations movements in output inversely affect movements in energy use the results of granger causality tests in this respect are consistent with those of innovative accounting that includes variance decompositions and impulse responses autoregressive distributed lag models also suggest a role of output in bangladesh s energy use hence the findings of this study have policy implications for other developing nations where measures for energy conservation and efficiency can be relevant in policymaking