the changing time series properties of earnings cash flows and accruals has financial reporting become more conservative abstract this paper documents changes in the patterns of earnings cash flows and accruals over the last four decades in the absence of a generally accepted definition of conservatism a number of measures of reporting conservatism are identified and examined these measures rely on the accumulation of nonoperating accruals the timeliness of earnings with respect to bad and good news characteristics of the earnings distribution and the market to book ratio the patterns are consistent with an increase in conservative financial reporting over time the findings have implications for accounting standard setting regulation of financial information and financial statement analysis

who governs energy the challenges facing global energy governance this article conceptualizes the energy problems facing society from a global governance perspective it argues that a notion of global energy governance taken to mean international collective action efforts undertaken to manage and distribute energy resources and provide energy services offers a meaningful and useful framework for assessing energy related challenges the article begins by exploring the concepts of governance global governance and global energy governance it then examines some of the existing institutions in place to establish and carry out rules and norms governing global energy problems and describes the range of institutional design options available to policymakers it briefly traces the role of a selection of these institutions from inter governmental organizations to summit processes to multilateral development banks to global action networks in responding to energy issues and points out their strengths and weaknesses the article concludes by analyzing how the various approaches to global governance differ in their applicability to addressing the conundrums of global energy problems

an empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model abstract this paper provides an empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model proposed in ohlson ohlson j a 1995 earnings book values and dividends in security valuation contemporary accounting research 11 661 687 we point out that existing empirical research relying on ohlson s model is similar to past research relying explicitly on the dividend discounting model we establish that the key original empirical implications of ohlson s model stem from the information dynamics that link current information to future residual income our empirical results generally support ohlson s information dynamics however we find that our empirical implementation of ohlson s model provides only minor improvements over existing attempts to implement the dividend discounting model by capitalizing short term earnings forecasts in perpetuity

consensus consumer and intertemporal asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs le fichier attache est egalement edite dans les cahier de la chaire les particuliers face aux risques de l institut de finance de dauphine cahier n 7 mars 2007

does market incompleteness matter this paper argues that incompleteness of intertemporal financial markets has little effect on welfare prices or consumption in an economy with a single consumption good provided that traders are long lived and patient a riskless bond is traded shocks are transitory and there is no aggregate risk in an economy with aggregate risk a similar conclusion holds provided traders share the same crra utility function and the right assets are traded examples demonstrate that these conclusions need not hold if the wrong assets are traded or if the economy has multiple consumption goods

union negotiations and corporate policy a study of labor concessions in the domestic steel industry during the 1980s abstract this paper studies managerial compensation financial reporting and dividend policies of the seven major domestic steel producers during requests for union concessions substantial layoffs reported losses and sacrifices by nonunion stakeholders buttressed managers case for union concessions from 1980 to 1988 sample firms reduced their work force by about 300 000 almost two thirds and annual wage payments from 16 1 to 8 6 billion reported income is lower during union negotiations controlling for cash flows as is managerial pay with average ceo salary plus bonus declining 18 dividend reductions and white collar pay cuts are substantial pervasive and clustered during union negotiations

generalizing the permanent income hypothesis revisiting friedman s conjecture on consumption abstract friedman s contribution to the consumption literature goes well beyond the seminal permanent income hypothesis he conjectured that the marginal propensity to consume out of financial wealth shall be larger than out of human wealth the present discounted value of future labor income i present an explicitly solved model to deliver this widely noted consumption property by specifying that the conditional variance of changes in income increases with its level a larger realization of income not only implies a higher level of human wealth but also signals a riskier stream of future labor income inducing a higher precautionary saving and thus giving rise to friedman s conjecture appropriately adjusting human wealth for income risk i show that friedman s conjecture may be formulated as a generalized permanent income hypothesis i further show that friedman s conjecture captures the first order effect of stochastic precautionary savings finally i propose a natural decomposition of the optimal saving rule to formalize various motives for holding wealth as emphasized in friedman m 1957 a theory of the consumption function princeton university press princeton

equilibrium in securities markets with heterogeneous investors and unspanned income risk abstract in a finite time horizon incomplete market continuous time setting with dividends and investor incomes governed by arithmetic brownian motions we derive closed form solutions for the equilibrium risk free rate and stock price for an economy with finitely many heterogeneous cara investors and unspanned income risk in equilibrium the sharpe ratio is the same as in an otherwise identical complete market economy whereas the risk free rate is lower and consequently the stock price is higher the reduction in the risk free rate is highest when the more risk averse investors face the largest unspanned income risk

conservatism and debt abstract despite the unquestionable influence of conservatism disagreement remains about what economic demands lead to financial reporting conservatism research examining lenders demands for reporting conservatism has been questioned for ignoring conservative contract modifications we document that these modifications exist but are not ubiquitous we find contract modifications are more likely when agency costs are higher and litigation tax and equity demands for conservatism are lower however we find a positive association between unexplained reporting conservatism and contract modifications suggesting contractual modifications alone do not fulfill lenders demands for conservatism

optimal hedging and equilibrium in a dynamic futures market abstract this paper considers an agent maximizing the expected utility of the sum of the terminal value of a fixed portfolio of spot market assets and the terminal value of a margin account on a futures trading position closed form solutions for the optimal hedging strategy are provided in several special cases

powering africa meeting the financing and reform challenges africa faces chronic power problems including insufficient generation capacity low connectivity poor reliability and high costs all of which constrain development power capacity additions in sub saharan africa excl sa since the 1990 s were minuscule historically investments in the power sector in africa have come mostly from governments or public utilities with foreign aid support in recent years these sources of funding have been flat the fastest new sources of funding are from independent power producers ipps and from china to understand the determinant of the new sources the paper analyses the effect of several key factor and find non expected results such as there is no obvious correlation between unbundling or the presence of an independent regulator and the level of private investment through ipps or that there is no correlation between chinese investment in generation and resource rich countries dispelling the myth that chinese firms are only interested in africa s resources the paper delivers several recommendations that indicate that more attention needs to be given to issues related to planning procurement and contracting as well as securing revenue flows jel classification o13 o25 l94

earnings quality in uk private firms comparative loss recognition timeliness abstract uk private and public companies face substantially equivalent regulation on auditing accounting standards and taxes we hypothesize that private company financial reporting nevertheless is of lower quality due to different market demand regulation notwithstanding a large uk sample supports this hypothesis quality is operationalized using basu s 1997 time series measure of timely loss recognition and a new accruals based method the result is not affected by controls for size leverage industry membership and auditor size or by allowing endogenous listing choice the result enhances understanding of private companies which are predominant in the economy it also provides insight into the economics of accounting standards

book to market components future security returns and errors in expected future earnings this study investigates whether the ability of book to market to predict returns derives from systematic errors in the market s expectation of future earnings we extend beaver and ryan 1996 2000 by decomposing book to market into a more persistent bias component and a delayed recognition lag component we find that both components are related to analyst expectations of future earnings but the lag component is the dominant factor across all forecast horizons similarly we find that the lag component explains most of the inverse relation between book to market and future returns given that lag is constructed by regressing book to market ratios on lagged price changes our results are consistent with the lag component capturing systematic stock price reversals we find that the components have unique relations with subsequent earnings forecast revisions and controlling for these relations substantially mitigates the components ability to predict returns our component level analysis provides insight into how expected future earnings summarized in book to market ratios help to explain this market anomaly

the contracting benefits of accounting conservatism to lenders and borrowers abstract this paper examines the ex post and ex ante benefits of accounting conservatism to lenders and borrowers in the debt contracting process i expect conservatism to benefit lenders ex post through the timely signaling of default risk as manifested by accelerated covenant violations and to benefit borrowers ex ante through lower initial interest rates consistent with these predictions i find that more conservative borrowers are more likely to violate debt covenants following a negative price shock and that lenders offer lower interest rates to more conservative borrowers

optimal portfolio choice for long horizon investors with nontradable labor income this paper examines how risky labor income and retirement affect optimal portfolio choice with idiosyncratic labor income risk the optimal allocation to stocks is unambiguously larger for employed investors than for retired investors consistent with the typical recommendations of investment advisors increasing idiosyncratic labor income risk raises investors willingness to save and reduces their stock portfolio allocation towards the level of retired investors positive correlation between labor income and stock returns has a further negative effect and can actually reduce stockholdings below the level of retired investors financial advisors typically recommend that their customers invest more in stocks than in safe assets when they are working and to shift their investments towards safe assets when they retire jagannathan and kocherlakota 1996 malkiel 1996 by contrast the standard academic models of portfolio choice merton 1969 1971 samuelson 1969 show that retirement is irrelevant for portfolio decisions if investment opportunities are constant and human capital is tradable in this case the fraction of wealth optimally invested in risky assets should be constant over the lifetime of an individual recent research building on the pioneering work by merton 1971 shows that time varying investment opportunities result in portfolio rules with an intertemporal hedging component whose magnitude depends on the investment horizon of the investor kim and omberg 1996 balduzzi and lynch 1997 brennan schwartz and lagnado 1997 brandt 1999 campbell and viceira 1999 2001 barberis 2000 with time variation in investment opportunities retirement and death play an instrumental role as events that exogenously fix the individual s investment horizon more importantly retirement also marks the time at which individuals stop working and thereafter must live off their lifetime savings and possibly transfers from this perspective retirement matters for portfolio choice

does meeting earnings expectations matter evidence from analyst forecast revisions and share prices this paper investigates whether the market rewards firms meeting current period earnings expectations and whether any such reward reflects the implications of meeting expectations in the current period for future earnings or reflects a distinct market premium we document that abnormal annual returns are significantly greater for firms meeting expectations controlling for the information in the current year s earnings we then test whether firms meeting expectations experience higher returns simply because their expected future earnings are also higher we find firms meeting expectations have significantly higher earnings forecasts and realized earnings than firms that do not we find that controlling for these higher future earnings firms meeting expectations in one or two years do not receive a greater valuation than their fundamentals would suggest we find however that the market assigns a higher value to firms that meet expectations consistently controlling for an estimate of the firm s fundamental value

geographies of energy transition space place and the low carbon economy this paper makes a case for examining energy transition as a geographical process involving the reconfiguration of current patterns and scales of economic and social activity the paper draws on a seminar series on the geographies of energy transition security climate governance hosted by the authors between 2009 and 2011 which initiated a dialogue between energy studies and the discipline of human geography focussing on the uk government s policy for a low carbon transition the paper provides a conceptual language with which to describe and assess the geographical implications of a transition towards low carbon energy six concepts are introduced and explained location landscape territoriality spatial differentiation scaling and spatial embeddedness examples illustrate how the geographies of a future low carbon economy are not yet determined and that a range of divergent and contending potential geographical futures are in play more attention to the spaces and places that transition to a low carbon economy will produce can help better understand what living in a low carbon economy will be like it also provides a way to help evaluate the choices and pathways available

the information content of earnings and prices a simultaneous equations approach abstract the price earnings relation can be characterized as a system of simultaneous equations earnings and prices can behave as if they are both endogenously determined because they are jointly affected by information that is difficult to specify explicitly specification tests provide evidence that both earnings changes and price changes are endogenous the price and earnings coefficients increase from ols to joint estimation and under a restrictive set of assumptions provide increasingly similar estimates of the permanent component of earnings the evidence is consistent with the contention that a portion of the single equation bias can be mitigated via joint estimation

heterogeneous expectations and bond markets this paper presents a dynamic equilibrium model of bond markets in which two groups of agents hold heterogeneous expectations about future economic conditions the heterogeneous expectations cause agents to take on speculative positions against each other and therefore generate endogenous relative wealth fluctuation the relative wealth fluctuation amplifies asset price volatility and contributes to the time variation in bond premia our model shows that a modest amount of heterogeneous expectations can help explain several puzzling phenomena including the excessive volatility of bond yields the failure of the expectations hypothesis and the ability of a tent shaped linear combination of forward rates to predict bond returns the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please email journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

aggregation of heterogeneous time preferences we examine an economy whose consumers have different discount factors for utility possibly not exponential we characterize the properties of efficient allocations of resources and of the shadow prices that would decentralize such allocations we show in particular that the representative agent has a decreasing discount rate when as is usually posited all of a group s members have a constant discount rate and decreasing absolute risk aversion preferences we also identify conditions that lead the representative agent to have a rate of impatience that decreases with gross domestic product per capita

independent power projects in sub saharan africa investment trends and policy lessons abstract sub saharan africa is in urgent need of more power private sector investment is key to achieving this along with chinese funded projects independent power projects ipp represent the fastest growing sources of power investment in sub saharan africa ipp investment flows show little concern for electricity market structures but are more likely to gravitate to countries with strong planning procurement and contracting capacity as well as good regulatory quality data from the continent also shows a variety of ownership and financing structures for ipps but generally development financing institutions dfis play an important part in mitigating risk and bringing in private financiers we also see renewable energy breaking through on the continent both in scale and price this breakthrough is in part being facilitated by competitive procurement or auctions which deliver lower prices and increased transparency when compared with renewable energy feed in tariffs or directly negotiated contracts these developments have important policy implications highlighting the need for dynamic least cost planning linked to the timely initiation of the competitive procurement of new generation capacity the building of effective regulatory capacity and appropriate risk mitigation mechanisms such efforts promise to promote sustainable economic and social development across the continent

how has the financial crisis affected earnings management a european study the article aims to investigate whether and how in the european union eu the burst of the 2008 financial crisis affected misrepresentation of financial information due to earnings management by analysing a sample of 11 844 firm year observations listed in the eu over the period 2006 2012 an event study methodology allows us to calculate and compare country by country abnormal accruals over the estimation period and over the event period our findings validate our research hypothesis and suggest a decrease of misrepresentation in the large majority of the european countries after the burst of the financial crisis the results take part in the debate in the accounting literature about the change of earnings management over a financial crisis and have several implications for standard setters and regulators that could learn how the common incentives of entities to attract potential investors during a crisis could lead them to provide a high quality financial reporting

the articulation of price earnings ratios and market to book ratios and the evaluation of growth this paper interprets the price earnings ratio pie and the marketto book ratio pib and describes how they articulate it also describes the role of book rate of return on equity the ratio of their denominators in the determination of the ratios and the relation between them although both are reported regularly there is not a common understanding of these issues for example the pie ratio has been interpreted as an earnings growth indicator cragg and malkiel 1982 and litzenberger and rao 1971 a risk measure ball 1978 and an earnings capitalization rate graham dodd and cottle 1962 boatsman and baskin 1981 and alford 1992 derivations based on the gordon 1962 model describe it as determined by return on equity beaver and morse 1978 show that this ratio indicates transitory earnings the molodovsky effect from molodovsky 1953 it has also been interpreted as an indicator of mispriced stocks basu 1977 and jaffee keim and westerfield 1989 and as a product of accounting principles craig johnson and joy 1987 the p b ratio received less academic attention until fama and french 1992 traditionally it was interpreted as indicating expected return on equity see for example graham dodd and cottle 1962 this interpretation is given expression in the standard formula reconciling price to book value in preinreich 1938 edwards and bell 1961 and peasnell 1982 for example like pie p b has been modeled as a growth

a monte carlo method for optimal portfolios this paper proposes a new simulation based approach for optimal portfolio allocation in realistic environments with complex dynamics for the state variables and large numbers of factors and assets a first illustration involves a choice between equity and cash with nonlinear interest rate and market price of risk dynamics intertemporal hedging demands significantly increase the demand for stocks and exhibit low volatility we then analyze settings where stock returns are also predicted by dividend yields and where investors have wealth dependent relative risk aversion large scale problems with many assets including the nasdaq sp500 bonds and cash are also examined the question of optimal portfolio allocation has been of long standing interest for academics and practitioners in finance while the mean variance analysis of markowitz 1952 is still commonly used among portfolio managers it has been well understood since merton 1971 that long term investors would prefer portfolios that include hedging components to protect against fluctuations in their investment opportunities prompted by the seminal papers of merton 1969 1971 and samuelson 1969 studies have explored various aspects of the dynamic portfolio problem when asset prices follow diffusion processes e g richard 1975 this literature has relied for the most part on a dynamic programming approach to the problem more recent contributions by pliska 1986 karatzas lehoczky and shreve 1987 and cox and huang 1989 have proposed an alternative resolution method based on martingale techniques in the context of this approach an optimal portfolio formula was derived by ocone and karatzas 1991 this expression involves expectations of random variables depending on j6erme b detemple is at boston university school of management and cirano rene

a model of accrual measurement with implications for the evolution of the book to market ratio this paper constructs a model of accrual measurement and tests its implications for the evolution of the book to market ratio the model captures the intuition that book value is untimely or smoothed relative to market value so that movements in market value have relatively high variance and low predictability compared with movements in book value empirical tests of the model use lagged market value changes to forecast the mean reversion of the book to market ratio this paper complements recent research investigating the role of book to market ratios in security analysis accounting theorists e g edwards and bell 1961 and feltham and ohlson 1995 have long recognized the critical role of book to market ratios as predictors of abnormal earnings in earnings based valuation models tests of such valuation models e g ou and penman 1993 confront the practical problem of determining the horizon beyond which abnormal earnings are expected to be zero the model in this paper implies that this horizon is determined by the remaining useful life of assets and that the expected path of abnormal earnings over this horizon reflects the pattern of expiration of the useful lives of assets in place

financing low carbon energy access in africa modern energy access in africa is critical to meeting a wide range of developmental challenges including poverty reduction and the millennium development goals mdgs despite having a huge amount and variety of energy resources modern energy access in the continent is abysmal especially sub saharan africa only about 31 of the sub saharan african population have access to electricity while traditional biomass energy accounts for over 80 of energy consumption in many sub saharan african countries with energy use per capita among the lowest in the world there is no doubt that africa will need to increase its energy consumption to drive economic growth and human development africa also faces a severe threat from global climate change with vulnerabilities in several key areas or sectors in the continent including agriculture water supply energy etc low carbon development provides opportunities for african countries to improve and expand access to modern energy services while also building low emission and climate resilient economies however access to finance from different sources will be critical in achieving these objectives this paper sets out to explore the financial instruments available for low carbon energy access in africa including the opportunities markets and risks in low carbon energy investments in the continent

the uniqueness of the energy security justice and governance problem this article argues that among all policy fields exhibiting externalities of a global scale energy stands out on four dimensions vertical complexity horizontal complexity higher entailed costs and stronger path dependency these structural attributes are at odds with contemporary key challenges of energy security energy justice and low carbon energy transition with regard to the latter energy governance challenges occur related to unclear levels of authority and weak resilience this has implications for energy scholarship specifically relating to the political economy of energy transitions discussions about common pool resources systems analysis and other neighboring disciplines

introduction to the special issue urban energy governance local actions capacities and politics introduction to a special issue showing how there is much to be gained for deeper understandings of energy policy from a specifically urban analysis of rationales forms and repercussions of energy systems in transition the special issue offers an in depth examination of the variety of urban responses to quite distinctive and sometimes competing energy related challenges

the rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations abstract this paper finds that firms that meet or beat current analysts earnings expectations mbe enjoy a higher return over the quarter than firms with similar quarterly earnings forecast errors that fail to meet these expectations further such a premium to mbe although somewhat smaller exists in the cases where mbe is likely to have been achieved through earnings or expectations management the findings also indicate that the premium to mbe is a leading indicator of future performance this premium and its predictive ability are only marginally affected by whether the mbe is genuine or the result of earnings or expectations management

empirical research on accounting choice abstract we review research from the 1990s that examines the determinants and consequences of accounting choice structuring our analysis around the three types of market imperfections that influence managers choices agency costs information asymmetries and externalities affecting non contracting parties we conclude that research in the 1990s made limited progress in expanding our understanding of accounting choice because of limitations in research design and a focus on replication rather than extension of current knowledge we discuss opportunities for future research recommending the exploration of the economic implications of accounting choice by addressing the three different reasons why accounting matters

asset returns with transactions costs and uninsured individual risk abstract we explore whether incorporating an explicit motive for holding liquid assets within an equilibrium asset pricing model helps explain the following features of asset returns and turnover in the post war u s economy i the low risk free real interest rate ii the large spread between returns on liquid assets and stocks and iii the greater transaction velocity of liquid assets relative to stocks we introduce a demand for liquid assets by adding uninsured individual risk together with differential costs of trading securities numerical simulations attempting to match the return data generate a ratio of liquid assets to income considerably below observed levels

the relevance of the value relevance literature for financial accounting standard setting another view this paper explains that value relevance research assesses how well accounting amounts reflect information used by equity investors and provides insights into questions of interest to standard setters a primary focus of financial statements is equity investment other uses of financial statement information such as contracting do not diminish the importance of value relevance research value relevance questions can be addressed using extant valuation models value relevance studies address econometric issues that otherwise could limit inferences and can accommodate and be used to study the implications of accounting conservatism r 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classification m41 m44 g12

borrowing costs and the demand for equity over the life cycle abstract we construct a life cycle model that delivers realistic behavior for both equity holdings and borrowing the key model ingredient is a wedge between the cost of borrowing and the risk free investment return borrowing can either raise or lower equity demand depending on the cost of borrowing a borrowing rate equal to the expected return on equity which we show roughly matches the data minimizes the demand for equity alternative models with no borrowing or limited borrowing at the risk free rate cannot simultaneously fit empirical evidence on borrowing and equity holdings

incomplete markets and volatility abstract this paper shows that the precautionary motive combined with asset incompleteness is a major source of volatility and indeterminacy in financial markets price fluctuations originate from agents efforts to insure themselves through time by borrowing and lending instead of shifting income across states of nature by trading risky assets a high interest rate at a future date reduces the potential for future consumption smoothing via borrowing which leads to a strong precautionary motive and a low interest rate in the current period the negative feedback between future and current rates generates fluctuations this logic is developed in spec a cara normal exchange economy with many periods and endogenous interest rates when there is an intermediate level of market incompleteness and sufficient investor impatience fluctuations in the real interest rate can be large even though the aggregate endowment is constant spec has a unique equilibrium under a finite horizon on the other hand with a finite number of infinitely lived agents there exists a robust continuum of equilibria that are neither bubbles nor sunspots journal of economic literature classification numbers c61 d52 d58 g11 g12

fair value disclosures by bank holding companies abstract this paper examines the value relevance of fair value data disclosed under sfas 107 by banks for 1992 and 1993 collectively the evidence suggests differences between fair and book values of financial instruments are associated with market to book ratios however fair value disclosures for financial instruments other than securities are value relevant only in limited settings in addition only in 1992 are fair value variables associated with market to book ratios after incorporating existing historical cost information further analysis suggests the weaker 1993 results are not necessarily due to increased measurement error in fair value numbers

asset pricing puzzles and incomplete markets the representative agent theory of asset pricing is modified to incorporate heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets the model features two types of agents who differ up to a nontradable idiosyncratic component in their endowment processes numerical solutions indicate that individuals are able to diversify a substantial portion of their idiosyncratic income risk through riskless borrowing and lending alone restrictions on the variability of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution hansen and jagannathan 1991 are used to argue that incomplete markets as modeled here cannot account for the properties of asset returns that are anomalous from the perspective of representative agent theory a large literature in financial economics has investigated the extent to which variants of the lucas 1978 general equilibrium theory of asset pricing can account for the joint behavior of aggregate u s consumption and asset returns by and large this literature has concluded that a theory based upon frictionless arrow debreu markets and or a representative agent makes strongly counterfactual predictions regarding even the simple unconditional properties of this relationship mehra and prescott 1985 for instance show that the theory drastically underpredicts the average excess rate of return on u s stocks the so called equity premium puzzle weil 1989 points out as did mehra and prescott that the magnitude of the average risk free rate is far below that predicted by the theory this has been dubbed the risk free rate puzzle numerous authors including grossman melino and shiller 1987 and backus gregory and zin 1989 show that the theory cannot account for term premia inherent in the yield curve hodrick 1987 surveys a large literature which documents the theory s shortcomings in accounting for excess expected returns in foreign exchange markets the notion that the representative agent model cannot account for excess returns across a wide array of asset markets can be made more precise by using tools developed by hansen and jagannathan 1991 and shiller 1982

nontraded assets in incomplete markets pricing and portfolio choice this paper examines portfolio choice and asset pricing when some assets are nontraded for instance when a country cannot trade claims to its output on world capital markets when a government cann

earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses this paper provides evidence that firms manage reported earnings to avoid earnings decreases and losses specifically in cross sectional distributions of earnings changes and earnings we lind unusually low frequencies of small decreases in earnings and small losscs and unusually high frequencies of small increases in earnings and small positive income we find evidence that two components of earnings cash flow from operations and changes in working capital are used to achieve increases in earnings we present two theories based on stakeholder use of information processing heuristics and prospect theory about the motivation for avoidance of earnings decreases and losses

the impact of conservatism on management earnings forecasts abstract we investigate the empirical relation between a firm s accounting conservatism and management s issuance of quantitative earnings forecasts using three measures of conservatism from prior literature along with two aggregate measures we find a negative association between conservatism and the frequency specificity and timeliness of management forecasts the results are robust to estimating the regression in changes using firm fixed effects and using a two stage instrumental variables approach overall these results suggest that accounting conservatism acts as a substitute for management forecasts by decreasing information asymmetry in the market and reducing potential litigation through the timely reporting of bad news

asymmetric timeliness of earnings market to book and conservatism in financial reporting abstract using an accounting conservatism theory that reflects accounting s role in practice we investigate the relation between two extensively used measures of conservatism asymmetric timeliness of earnings and the market to book ratio mtb we predict and observe that when asymmetric timeliness is measured cumulatively over long periods its relation with end of period mtb is positive when asymmetric timeliness is measured over short periods its dependence on beginning of period composition of equity value ev is responsible for its negative association with mtb further asymmetric timeliness appears to measure conservatism more efficiently when it is estimated cumulatively over multiple periods

labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model abstract this paper examines the effect of the labor leisure choice on portfolio and consumption decisions over an individual s life cycle the model incorporates the fact that individuals may have considerable flexibility in varying their work effort including their choice of when to retire given this flexibility the individual simultaneously determines optimal levels of current consumption labor effort and an optimal financial investment strategy at each point in his life cycle we show that labor and investment choices are intimately related the ability to vary labor supply ex post induces the individual to assume greater risks in his investment portfolio ex ante

explicit solutions to an optimal portfolio choice problem with stochastic income abstract this paper solves in closed form the optimal portfolio choice problem for an investor with negative exponential utility over terminal wealth facing imperfectly hedgeable stochastic income the returns on income and the stock are imperfectly correlated so the market is incomplete we identify how an investor adjusts their merton rev econ statist 51 1969 247 portfolio of the stock and riskless asset via an intertemporal hedging demand in reaction to the stochastic income under general assumptions on the process governing the income the sign of the hedging demand is the opposite of the sign of the correlation between the income and stock the optimal portfolio in the stock is long stock if the risk premium is positive and correlation negative and short if these signs are reversed specializing in turn to normally distributed income and lognormally distributed income with or without mean reversion the effect of a number of parameters on the optimal portfolio in the stock can be studied when the risk premium on the stock and correlation have opposite signs the optimal portfolio decreases in magnitude with risk aversion unhedgeable variance of income and time and increases in magnitude with the magnitude of correlation under both the lognormal without mean reversion and normal models for income these relationships do not necessarily hold if the signs on the risk premium and correlation are the same in particular the optimal portfolio is not necessarily monotone in risk aversion violating well known static results in models without income when income follows a lognormal model with mean reversion more complicated behavior can occur for instance the optimal portfolio does not have to be monotonic in time regardless of the signs of correlation and the risk premium

the allowance for uncollectible accounts conservatism and earnings management we study the interrelation between conservatism and earnings management by examining the allowance for uncollectible accounts and its income statement counterpart bad debt expense we find that the allowance is conservative and that it has become more conservative over time conservatism may however facilitate earnings management we find that firms manage bad debt expense downward and even record income increasing bad debt expense to meet or beat analysts earnings forecasts and that conservatism accentuates the extent to which firms manage bad debt expense further we find that firms manage bad debt expense downward by drawing down previously recorded over accruals of bad debt expense that have accumulated on the balance sheet an implication of our study is that tighter limits on the amount by which firms are permitted to understate net assets may reduce their ability to manage earnings

the landscape of energy initiatives in sub saharan africa going for systemic change or reinforcing the status quo abstract this article examines recent interventions by major players in sub saharan africa s energy sector and asks whether they acknowledge or seek to address energy as a complex problem and energy systems as socio technical systems several scholars have begun advocating the socio technical approach to energy by noting that the mainstream conceptualization of energy challenges in strictly technological or economic terms does not capture the complexity and inertia inherent to energy systems moreover the article also seeks to examine how well have recent interventions integrated pro poor and low carbon concerns two of the major tenets of un s sustainable development goal 7 findings suggest that initiatives studied take only partial consideration of key aspects of a socio technical approach to the energy problem nonetheless the initiatives have taken on board pro poor and low carbon concerns to a certain extent two main policy implications are drawn from this study a continued focus on status quo approaches has the potential to generate investment inefficiencies and an effective low carbon transition will require a broader discussions about the types of lifestyles people in sub saharan africa aspire to

association between accounting performance measures and stock prices a test of the life cycle hypothesis abstract this paper posits that stock market response to two accounting performance measures sales growth and capital investment is a function of firm life cycle stage firms are grouped into various life cycle portfolios using dividend payout sales growth and age as predicted the empirical results indicate a monotonic decline in the response coefficients of unexpected sales growth and unexpected capital investment from the growth to the stagnant stages additional analysis suggests that this relation is not driven by a firm size effect risk differences or measurement error in the proxies for performance measures

biases and lags in book value and their effects on the ability of the book to market ratio to predict book return on equity in this paper we distinguish two sources of variation in the book to market ratio bias and lags in book value hereafter bias and lags with different implications for the book to market ratio s ability to predict future book return on equity specifically we hypothesize and find that the bias component of the book to market ratio has a more persistent cross sectional association with future book return on equity than does the lag component this investigation is motivated both by the central role of expectations of book return on equity in the discounted residual in come valuation model e g see feltham and ohlson 1995 and by prior empirical research that finds that the book to market ratio is correlated with future book return on equity e g see fama and french 1992 1995 penman 1992 and bernard 1994

the relation between religiosity and private bank outcomes abstract we examine the effect of headquarters local religiosity on private bank outcomes religiosity is associated with lower risk taking for public banks but the unique features of private banks may result in a different effect for private banks we find religiosity is associated with greater asset risk taking at the same time however religiosity is negatively associated with solvency risk and return on asset roa volatility and is associated with higher roas and fewer failures we reconcile these results by finding banks in areas with higher religiosity recognize larger fees from providing additional banking services likely due to relationships formed from more risky lending as a result these banks are more less likely to realize extreme positive negative performance we also find religiosity is associated with lower earnings management and increased conservatism collectively our results confirm private banks are unique and religiosity can have a significant and nuanced effect on bank outcomes

when can life cycle investors benefit from time varying bond risk premia we study the importance of time varying bond risk premia in a consumption and portfolio choice problem for a life cycle investor facing short sales and borrowing constraints tilts in the optimal asset allocation in response to changes in bond risk premia exhibit pronounced life cycle patterns we find that the investor is willing to pay an annual fee up to 1 to implement a strategy that optimally conditions on prevailing bond risk premia in addition to her age and wealth to solve our model we extend recently developed simulation based techniques to life cycle problems featuring multiple state variables and multiple risky assets

the risk free rate in heterogeneous agent incomplete insurance economies abstract why has the average real risk free interest rate been less than one percent the question is motivated by the failure of a class of calibrated representative agent economies to explain the average return to equity and risk free debt i construct an economy where agents experience uninsurable idiosyncratic endowment shocks and smooth consumption by holding a risk free asset i calibrate the economy and characterize equilibria computationally with a borrowing constraint of one year s income the resulting risk free rate is more than one percent below the rate in the comparable representative agent economy

the importance of the number of different agents in a heterogeneous asset pricing model abstract models with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets often only have two types of agents to limit the computational complexity the question arises whether equilibrium models with a realistic number of types have the same implications as models with a small number of types in the asset pricing model considered in this paper several properties depend crucially on the number of types for example in the economy with only two types interest rates respond to idiosyncratic income shocks which makes it easier to smooth consumption moreover these effects can be so strong that it is possible that a relaxation of the borrowing constraint reduces an agent s utility average interest rates on the other hand are not very sensitive to the number of types

relative valuation roles of equity book value and net income as a function of financial health abstract this study tests predictions that pricing multiples on and incremental explanatory power of equity book value net income increase decrease as financial health decreases tests using a sample of 396 bankrupt firms and tests using a larger pooled sample both yield inferences consistent with predictions findings are robust to inclusion of controls for industry size return on equity and volatility of equity returns equity book value and net income multiples and incremental explanatory power vary predictably across three illustrative industries selected based on the likely extent of unrecognized intangible assets

have financial statements lost their relevance the authors explore the concern that financial statements no longer have the same relevance to investors that they had in the past they test for value relevance by measuring the total return that could have been earned from prior knowledge of financial statement information and by examining the explanatory power of accounting information on market values and annual market adjusted returns both analyses are applied to a broad sample of exchange listed and nasdaq firms for the 1952 94 period the authors find mixed evidence on value relevance of financial statement reporting during the test period