an econometric investigation of the monetary neutrality and rationality propositions from an international perspective t he combination of the natural rate of unemployment and the rational expectations hypotheses in macroeconomic models results in the now well known conclusion that anticipated short run monetary stabilization policies do not influence real economic variables this policy ineffectiveness proposition has been named the macro rational expectations mre hypothesis by modigliani 1977 as a result the implicit policy prescription is that a price level stabilization policy should be pursued the empirical validity of this conclusion is perhaps the central issue in modern stabilization theory barro 1977 1978 1981 barro and rush 1980 and leiderman 1980 have presented empirical evidence for the united states supporting this proposition however a number of recent studies have claimed that previous empirical results which support the finding that anticipated policy is neutral are flawed corrections of these problems often result in conflicting conclusions see small 1979 gordon 1979 and mishkin 1982 given the important implications of the mre hypothesis it is curious that almost all formal testing has been focused upon the united states while barro has suggested that a cross country study would be useful as far as we know only darby 1980 attempts to test whether anticipated changes in monetary policy are neutral across countries unfortunately his results suffer from problems caused by using generated regressors in addition he makes no attempt to test the individual implications of the mre hypothesis which encompasses the propositions that expectations are rational lad anticipated monetary policy does not matter in this paper we employ the methodology developed by mishkin to test the mre hypothesis in six countries canada germany italy japan the united kingdom and the united states the paper is divided into three major sections and a conclusion section ii briefly reviews mishkin s testing method in section iii the procedure employed to specify the money growth equation is discussed and these equations specified section iv presents and discusses the results of applying the method introduced in section ii in the conclusion the major findings are restated possible limitations discussed and extensions suggested

tracking the new economy using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity abstract the acceleration of productivity after 1995 prompted a debate over whether the economy s underlying growth rate would remain high in this paper we draw on growth theory to identify variables other than productivity namely consumption and labor compensation to help estimate trend productivity growth we treat that trend as a common factor with two regimes high and low growth our analysis picks up striking evidence of a return in 1997 to the high growth regime nearly 25 years after a switch from high to low growth we find that both the common factor and regime switching aspects of the model are important for identifying changes in trend productivity and also show that the trend breaks are more difficult to detect with per capita as opposed to per hour based data because of persistent labor supply shifts finally we argue that our methodology is effective in detecting changes in trend in real time in the case of the 1990s the methodology would have signaled the regime switch by 1999 or within roughly six quarters of when it occurred according to the full sample

the determination of foreign banking location abstract in this paper we examine the determinants of foreign bank location we initially present some time series data on the postwar expansion of international banking we show that foreign branching increased very rapidly from about 1960 to the mid 1980s and slowed significantly after 1985 one interpretation of this growth in foreign branching is that it largely paralleled the increase in trade and foreign direct investment although it may also have been encouraged by the improvements in communications and the rapid financial innovation of the 1960s and 1970s to assess the role of trade and foreign direct investment on bank expansion we employ a cross sectional analysis of the pattern of foreign bank offices whereas previous studies have focused on a single parent or host country our study extends the existing literature by analyzing the location of nearly 2000 overseas offices across 37 patent and 82 host countries our results suggest a significant relationship between the pattern of bank location trade and foreign direct investment we define a banking centre as one in which there are more foreign banks than can be explained in terms of real business activity and we show that the usa uk switzerland singapore and indonesia most clearly qualify as banking centres we also provide some evidence for a sample of host countries that the abnormal number of bank offices is related to capital market activities

macroeconomic volatility and external imbalances abstract does macroeconomic volatility uncertainty affects accumulation of net foreign assets in oecd economies over the period 1970 2012 changes in country specific aggregate volatility are after controlling for a wide array of factors significantly positively associated with net foreign asset position a standard open economy model with time varying macroeconomic uncertainty can quantitatively account for this relationship the key mechanism is precautionary motive more uncertainty induces residents to save more and higher savings are in part channeled into foreign assets data and theory suggest that volatility is an important determinant of the medium long run evolution of external imbalances in developed countries

domestic and international determinants of bank profits foreign banks in australia abstract this paper develops and tests a model that integrates the existing multinational bank literature with the domestic bank profits literature using data for australia this paper demonstrates that an integrated model results in a small increase in explanatory power when compared to models drawn solely from the multinational banking literature the paper finds that profits are a negative function of competitor market share and bank licence status and a positive function of australian size and home gdp growth it is argued that there is incomplete integration between the market segments of domestic and multinational banks due to the first mover advantages of incumbent banks

the decision to establish a foreign bank branch or subsidiary an application of binary classification procedures this paper has two purposes first we model a key decision for inter national banks using data on the foreign direct investment fdi behavior of foreign banks in japan and california second we examine the utility of linear discriminant analysis and maximum likelihood logit analysis as statistical techniques for relating a qualitative dependent variable to a vector of inde pendent variables we apply these techniques to the decision by parent banks as to whether or not to have a subsidiary branch in california japan we treat the deci sion as a binary choice based on a consideration of various relevant factors the population for each of the countries consists of those foreign to the host country banks that already have a presence in the country the research ques tion then becomes given that a foreign bank is in the country does the extent of the parent bank s experience internationally and in the host country affect the probability that it will deepen its presence the choice of statis tical tools by which to examine this question gives rise to our methodological concerns

news noise and fluctuations an empirical exploration a common view of the business cycle gives a central role to anticipations consumers and firms continuously receive information about the future which is sometimes news and sometimes just noise based on this information consumers and firms choose spending and because of nominal rigidities spending affects output in the short run if ex post the information turns out to be news the economy adjusts gradually to a new level of activity if it turns out to be just noise the economy returns to its initial state therefore the dynamics of news and noise generate both short run and long run changes in aggregate activity this view appears to capture many of the aspects often ascribed to fluctuations the role of animal spirits in affecting demand spirits coming here from a rational reaction to information about the future the role of demand in affecting output in the short run together with the notion that in the long run output follows a natural path determined by fundamentals in this paper we examine whether this view is consistent with the data we reach three main conclusions the first two methodological the third substantive structural vars typically cannot recover news and noise shocks the reason is straightforward if agents face a signal extraction problem and are unable to separate news from noise then the econometrician faced with either the same data as the agents or a subset of these data cannot do it either while structural estimation methods cannot recover the actual time series for news and noise shocks either they can recover underlying structural parameters and thus the relative role and dynamic effects of news and noise shocks estimation of both a simple model and then of a more elaborate dsge model suggest that agents indeed solve such a signal extraction problem and that noise shocks play an important role in determining short run dynamics recent efforts to estimate business cycle models in which expectations about the future play an important role include christiano et al 2010 and schmitt grohe and uribe 2012 those papers follow the approach of jaimovich and rebelo 2009 and model news as perfectly anticipated productivity changes that will occur at

international capital flows under dispersed private information abstract it is well established that private information is critical to our understanding of asset prices in this paper we argue that it also affects international capital flows and use a simple two country dsge model to illustrate its impact we show that private information i increases the volatility of both net and gross capital flows ii leads to a high correlation between capital inflows and outflows iii leads to a disconnect of capital flows from observed macro fundamentals and iv implies that capital flows contain information about the future macro fundamentals we also show that dispersed information affects capital flows both through asset prices and directly so that the impact on flows is not just the mirror image of the impact on prices

the expectations driven us current account during the 1990s and 2000s survey expectations of long run output growth for the u s relative to the rest of the world were highly correlated with the u s current account and thus with global imbalances we show that this finding is to a large extent predicted by a two region stochastic growth model simulated using expected trend growth based on surveys in line with the intertemporal approach to the current account a major part of the buildup and subsequent reversal of the u s current account de cit appears to be consistent with an optimal response of households and firms to changing growth prospects this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

international capital flows external assets and output volatility abstract cross sectional evidence for 119 developing emerging and developed countries shows over the last three decades that countries with an on average higher volatility of output growth experience more procyclical capital outflows over the business cycle than those countries with the same growth rate but a more stable output path this stylized pattern shows up in addition to the recently established fact that countries with higher macroeconomic uncertainty tend to accumulate higher external asset positions to explain this finding we present an open economy real business cycle model with stochastic growth rates in which higher uncertainty of the expected income stream increases the precautionary savings of households we show that the combination of income risk and the precautionary savings motive leads to both more procyclical capital outflows in the shorter run and a higher long run external asset position

can news be a major source of aggregate fluctuations a bayesian dsge approach we examine whether the news shocks as explored in beaudry and portier 2004 can be a major source of aggregate fluctuations for this purpose we extend a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model a la christiano eichenbaum and evans 2005 by allowing news shocks on the total factor productivity and estimate the model using bayesian methods estimation results on the japanese and u s economies show that 1 the news shocks play an important role in business cycles 2 a news shock with a longer forecast horizon has larger effects on nominal variables and 3 the overall effect of the total factor productivity on hours worked becomes ambiguous in the presence of news shocks

the role of location related factors in u s banking involvement abroad an empirical examination this study examines the role of major location specific advantages in the international branch banking involvement of u s banks using pooled time series 1976 82 cross sectional thirty countries regression analysis this study finds that the u s business presence in foreign country has a strong positive effect on u s branch banking activity in that country in contrast the local market opportunity appears to have no significant effect these results hold for the entire set of countries as well as each of five subsets developed less developed european latin american and asian countries the openness of the host country to the establishment of new foreign bank branches does affect u s branch banking involvement this effect is most pronounced in the less developed countries particularly those in asia

factors affecting the performance of foreign owned banks in australia a cross sectional study abstract this study extends the existing literature of international banking by constructing a model of foreign intermediaries in australia an unresolved question is establishing those factors that result in banking across borders while a variety of theories attempt to explain international banking empirical tests are sparse mahajan a rangan n zardkoohi a 1996 journal of banking and finance 20 283 306 this study considers if the results to date apply in non us settings foreign bank size was found to be a positive function of bank licence parent size and time in australia and a negative function of australian net interest margins and fees the negative sign on net interest margins and fees is consistent with de young r nolle d 1996 journal of money credit and banking 28 622 636 foreign bank profits were a positive function of australian net interest margins and fees there was limited evidence of defensive expansion this paper concludes that foreign bank size is explained well by the existing theories of international banking but a wider model is appropriate for foreign bank profits

what can survey forecasts tell us about information rigidities a lot we derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers firms central bankers and professional forecasters we document that mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact to shocks leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information the dynamics of forecast errors after shocks are consistent with the predictions of models with information rigidities the conditional responses of forecast errors and disagreement among agents can also be used to differentiate between some of the most prominent models of information rigidities

consumer misperceptions uncertain fundamentals and the business cycle abstract this paper estimates the importance of shocks to consumer misperceptions noise shocks for u s business cycle fluctuations i embed imperfect information as in lorenzoni 2009 into a smets and wouters 2007 type dsge model agents only observe aggregate productivity and a signal about the permanent component contaminated with noise based on this information agents form beliefs about the temporary and the permanent component of productivity shocks to the signal noise shocks trigger aggregate fluctuations unrelated to changes in productivity bayesian estimation shows that noise shocks explain up to 14 percent of output and up to 25 percent of consumption fluctuations nominal rigidities and the specification of the monetary policy rule are crucial for the importance of noise shocks these features help to resolve conflicting results in the previous literature

econometric issues in macroeconomic models with generated regressors the paper critically reviews the literature on the econometric issues raised by the use of generated regressors gr in empirical models the economic rationale for the use of gr is considered with examples being drawn from several macroeconomic examples including new classical macroeconomic ncm models which postulate monetary neutrality various estimation methods are discussed for models which include surprise or unexpected terms and the strengths and weaknesses of each approach are investigated drawing upon the work of mcaleer and mckenzie 1991 situations where the typically inefficient two step estimation 2se method will be efficient are highlighted problems of model misspecification and measurement errors are also investigated an empirical section highlights some of the dangers of using uncorrected 2se estimation results through a careful consideration of many recent attempts to test the ncm monetary neutrality hypothesis copyright 1993 by blackwell publishers ltd

a structural decomposition of the u s trade balance productivity demographics and fiscal policy abstract the us external deficits have been the most striking manifestation of global imbalances this paper investigates the contribution of productivity growth demographics and fiscal policy in accounting for the evolution of the us external imbalances against industrialized countries during the last three decades productivity growth plays a dominant role demographics explain a non negligible and nearly permanent component of the us trade deficit furthermore the international demographic transition is crucial for large us external imbalances to be consistent with the persistent decline of world real interest rates observed in the data fiscal policy is of minor importance

a quantitative assessment of the decline in the u s current account low frequency changes in the u s current account can be understood in terms of the influence of differences in productivity growth rates across time and across countries using standard growth theory in particular the secular decline is primarily driven by the increase in the u s tfp growth rate relative to its trading partners differences in population growth rates or fiscal policy have no significant effects on the low frequency changes in the u s current account

news driven business cycles insights and challenges there is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations the news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective in this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents information due to the arrival of news can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating their relevance in particular we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of the role of news in business cycles can be established jel d83 d84 e13 e32 o33

an exploration into pigou s theory of cycles abstract this paper explores a theory of business cycles in which recessions and booms arise due to difficulties encountered by agents in properly forecasting the economy s future needs in terms of capital the idea has a long history in the macroeconomic literature as reflected by the work of pigou industrial fluctuation macmillan london 1926 the contribution of this paper is twofold first we illustrate the type of general equilibrium structure that can give rise to such phenomena second we examine the extent to which such a model can explain the observed pattern of u s recessions frequency depth without relying on technological regress we argue that such a model offer a framework for understanding elements of both the recent u s recession and of the asia downturns of the late 1990s

home biased expectations and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary union abstract under monetary union economic dynamics may diverge across countries due to regional inflation differentials and a pro cyclical real interest rate channel yet stability is generally ensured through endogenous adjustment of the real exchange rate the speed of adjustment depends inter alia on the way agents form expectations we propose a model in which agents expectations are largely based on domestic variables and less so on foreign variables we show that such home bias in expectations strengthens the real interest rate channel and causes country specific shocks to generate larger and more prolonged macroeconomic imbalances

monetary policy and the information content of prices rational expectations and cleared markets lead to the proposition that feedback monetary policy is irrelevant to real activity as in the analyses of sargent and wallace however if agents are differentially informed and have access to a common price then prospective monetary policy actions future feedback to imperfectly known current circumstances can alter real activity by changing the information content of prices

learning and shifts in long run productivity growth abstract an extensive literature has analyzed the macroeconomic effects of shocks to the level of aggregate productivity however there has been little corresponding research on sustained shifts in the growth rate of productivity in this paper we examine the effects of shocks to productivity growth in a dynamic general equilibrium model where agents do not directly observe whether shocks are transitory or persistent we show that an estimated kalman filter model using real time data describes economists long run productivity growth forecasts in the united states extremely well and that filtering has profound implications for the macroeconomic effects of shifts in productivity growth

global imbalances globalization demography and sustainability if you sum up the current account deficits of all nations that are running deficits in the world economy the u s deficit accounts for about 70 percent of the total in any country s national accounts it will hold true as an identity that the current account deficit the excess of payments m to the rest of the world for goods services investment income and unilateral transfers over receipts x from the rest of the world for similar items exactly equals apart from measurement errors which may be substantial the excess of aggregate expenditure e for goods and services over national output y which in turn equals the excess of investment i over savings both public t g and private s in symbols

the influence of hymer s dissertation on the theory of foreign derect investment the great contribution of stephen hymer s seminal dissertation 1960 was to escape from the intellectual straightjacket of neoclassical type trade and financial theory and move us towards an analysis of the multinational enterprise mne based upon industrial organization theory the magnitude of this breakthrough can be put into perspective by considering the state of the art when hymer wrote twenty five years ago in 1960 the prevailing explanation of international capital movements relied exclusively upon a neoclassical financial theory of portfolio flows in this frictionless world of perfect competition with no transaction costs capital moves in response to changes in interest rate or profit differentials see carl iversen 1936 according to this arbitrage theory capital is assumed to be transacted between independent buyers and sellers that is there is no role for the mne at the time there was no separate theory of foreign direct investment fdi the work did not even ask the question of why is there fdi despite the evidence of sectoral cross investments and the existence of large mnes with intra industry trade if anything the early work on fdi focused upon the where of investment in a particular nation or industry for example dunning 1958 was chiefly interested in explaining u s fdi in britain there was little interest in understanding the reasons for the mne or the nature of its operations the pioneering conceptual insight of hymer was to break out of the arid mold of international trade and investment theory and focus attention upon the mne per se this permits us to treat fdi as a modality by which firms extend their territorial horizons abroad the unique feature of fdi is a mechanism by which the mne maintains control over productive activities outside its national boundaries that is fdi means international production in this view fdi is more than a process by which assets or claims are exchanged internationally see robert aliber 1970 1983 hymer s great insight was in focusing attention upon the mne as the institution for international production rather than international exchange until hymer articulated the process of fdi as an international extension of industrial organization theory it was not possible to understand why the mne transfers intermediate products such as knowledge or technology among its units across different nations while still retaining property rights over such assets today it is widely recognized that the theory of fdi i e international production is primarily about the transfer of nonfinancial and ownershipspecific intangible assets by the mne which needs to appropriate and control the rate of use of its internalized advantage s see rugman 1981 david teece 1981 1982 richard caves 1982 and mark casson 1983 in this paper we first acknowledge hymer s contribution to the theory of fdi and then move on to reinterpret his dissertation in the light of the modern theory of the mne we tdiscussants raymond vernon harvard university robert z aliber university of chicago paul streeten boston university

concentration and other determinants of bank profitability in europe north america and australia abstract this study reviews the performance of banks in twelve countries or territories in europe north america and australia and examines the internal and external determination of profitability to circumvent some of the difficulties in making comparisons between banks in different countries the concept of value added is introduced results parallel those in domestic u s studies and provide some support for the edwards heggestad mingo hypothesis of risk avoidance by banks with a high degree of market power

do prices lead money a reexamination of the neutrality hypothesis do prices lead money a reexamination of the neutrality hypothesis in one class of theoretical models real effects occur only if changes in money growth are expected to occur in some future period if expected in the current period they are neutral some empirical models examine the neutrality of expected current money growth and therefore do not directly address the neutrality of expected future growth this paper develops an empirical model that explicitly incorporates expected future changes in money growth a reexamination of the rationality neutrality and macro rational expectations hypotheses over a sample of four countries suggests that the use of expected future money growth results in strong rejections of the neutrality hypothesis i introduction the revolution in macroeconomics inspired by the theory of rational expectations called into question the ability of systematic monetary policy to affect real economic variables much research has been devoted to the issue of policy effectiveness in the last decade and many examples have been constructed that demonstrate the theoretical possibility of nonneutrality even when expectations are formed rationally one result of this research has been to demonstrate that the expectation of a future change in the money growth rate can cause a change in the current value of real output in these models an expected change in money growth at some point in the future results in a change in the price level in all time periods prior to the change in the money growth rate this phenomenon of prices leading money see brock 1974 751 results in a change in real money balances in each time period prior to the expected change in the money growth rate and the change in real money balances results in nonneutral changes in real output in order for the nonneutrality result to hold in this class of models it is essential that the expected change in money growth be in some future time period so that prices and hence real balances change prior to the change in the money growth rate when the change in money growth is expected to occur in the current time period rather than in the future prices and the money supply change proportionately leaving the value of real balances unchanged in this case there is no change in real output this difference in the theoretical predictions concerning the neutrality of expected future and expected current changes in the money growth rate has implications for empirical tests of the neutrality hypothesis according to these models such tests ought to examine the significance of the relationship between the current value of real output and expected future changes in money growth tests of the neutrality hypothesis performed in the past such as those by barro 1977 1978 mishkin 1982 1983 and hoffman and schlagenhauf 1982 have examined the significance of the empirical relationship between the current value of real output and the expected current money growth rate thus these empirical models do not capture the crucial distinction between current and future changes in money growth rates this paper develops an empirical model based on expected future rather than expected current changes in the money growth rate in the real output equation and then reexamines the neutrality hypothesis the issue of whether expectations are formed rationally is also important in the analysis of the empirical evidence for the neutrality hypothesis as mishkin 1982 1983 points out the neutrality hypothesis has little meaning without a theory of expectation formation in light of this tests of the rationality hypothesis as well as the joint hypothesis of rationality and neutrality known as the macro rational expectations hypothesis 1 mre are also conducted ii theoretical models of nonneutral money in many equilibrium rational expectations models the neutrality of money depends upon whether an expected change in the money supply is in the current or some future time period

emerging market business cycles learning about the trend abstract emerging market business cycles feature a higher variability of consumption relative to output and a strongly countercyclical trade balance an equilibrium business cycle model in which agents learn to distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of total factor productivity shocks using the kalman filter accounts for these features calibrated to mexico the model accounts for the behavior of consumption and the trade balance for a wide range of variability and persistence of permanent shocks relative to transitory shocks estimation for mexico and canada suggests more severe informational frictions in emerging markets than in developed economies