statistical efficiency of double bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation the statistical efficiency of conventional dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys can be improved by asking each respondent a second dichotomous choice question which depends on the response to the first question if the first response is yes the second bid is some amount greater than the first bid while if the first response is no the second bid is some amount smaller this double bounded approach is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the conventional singlebounded approach using data from a survey of californians regarding their willingness to pay for wetlands in the san joaquin valley we show that in a finite sample the gain in efficiency can be very substantial

progressive taxation and the social marginal cost of public funds abstract this paper describes the calculation of the social marginal cost of public funds smcf for a progressive tax system which distorts individuals labour supply decisions a formula for the smcf indicates that the income and substitution effects of the labour supply response are weighted by the changes in individuals average and marginal tax rates respectively other well known formulas for the smcf are shown to be special cases of this formula the difference between this formula and the mayshar 1991 formula is shown to be due to different but equally valid ways of computing the change in the average tax rate the condition under which a marginal tax rate increase may lead to a reduction in revenues is derived

estimation using contingent valuation data from a dichotomous choice with follow up questionnaire reply abstract our original article proposed that the two yes no willingness to pay wtp responses produced by this survey format should be viewed as a pair of jointly distributed correlated discrete random variables the comparison model the conventional approach to estimation using these types of data contained a programming error correction alters the results from the comparison model but our original claim that estimation by conventional methods can produce misleading inferences if ours is the appropriate specification still stands this is especially true if negative wtp is precluded when e wtp is calculated

one and one half bound dichotomous choice contingent valuation to reduce the potential for response bias on the follow up bid in multiple bound discrete choice cvm questions while maintaining much of the efficiency gains of the multiple bound approach we introduce the one and one half bound oohb approach despite the fact that the oohb model uses less information than the double bound db approach efficiency gains in moving from single bound to oohb capture a large portion of the gain associated with moving from single bound to db in an analysis of survey data our oohb estimates demonstrated higher consistency with respect to the follow up data than the db estimates and were more efficient as well

public support for reducing us reliance on fossil fuels investigating household willingness to pay for energy research and development abstract in order to reduce future dependence on foreign oil and emissions of co2 how much would us households be willing to pay annually to support increased energy research and development r d activities designed to replace fossil fuels does it matter whether the r d includes nuclear energy options we explore these questions using data from a unique set of national telephone and internet surveys using a national advisory referendum format the contingent valuation method is applied to estimate annual household willingness to pay wtp for us household support of a national energy research and development fund erdf for investments in energy sources not reliant on fossil fuels while accounting for the level of un certainty in voting responses the wtp modeling includes a comparison of both classic maximum likelihood estimation mle and bayesian analysis evidence indicates that mle and bayesian analysis achieve similar statistical inference while the bayesian analysis provides a narrower confidence interval around estimated wtp

a bayesian approach to double bounded contingent valuation in this paper we propose a bayesian approach to model double bounded contingent valuation data the double bounded elicitation method is interpreted as a two tier iterated process in which the subject is allowed to have a second thought about his her valuation for the environmental good prior information is modelled from the answers to the first dichotomous choice question the model is quasi bayesian q b in that the prior distribution refers to mean willingness to pay while the likelihood function refers to the proportions of a multinomial distribution this model is applied to empirical data from a contingent valuation survey involving the valuation expressed by european tourists for access to natural areas in the canary islands results show that point estimate of consumer surplus computed with the q b model does not differ substantially from single bounded model estimation in addition double bounded seems to be quite robust to the choice of the prior model of willingness to pay responses comparison with open ended suggests that the q b model might be useful to control for strategic response and starting point biases

bayesian analysis of interval data contingent valuation models and pricing policies the general aim of a contingent valuation survey is to elicit the willingness to pay wtp of respondents for some public commodity without a clear market price this could be a program to protect some environmental resource or as in our application the access to a recreational area of particular interest in this context we want to accommodate the possibility of zero wtp and we need to deal with the fact that observations arise as intervals for wtp rather than point observations we propose a flexible bayesian statistical analysis of wtp as a function of characteristics of the respondents that formally incorporates this structure through a mixture model we consider model uncertainty and pay particular attention to the predictive distribution of revenue if a certain entry price were asked the latter is an important tool for deriving pricing policies

hypothetical versus real willingness to pay in the health care sector results from a field experiment abstract we conducted a field experiment comparing hypothetical and real purchase decisions for a pharmacist provided asthma management program among 172 subjects with asthma subjects received either a dichotomous choice contingent valuation question or were given the opportunity to actually enroll in the program three different prices were used us 15 40 and 80 in the hypothetical group 38 of subjects said that they would purchase the good at the stated price but only 12 of subjects in the real group purchased the good p 0 000 we cannot however reject the null hypothesis that definitely sure hypothetical yes responses as identified in a follow up question correspond to real yes responses we conclude that the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method overestimates willingness to pay but that it may be possible to correct for this overestimation by sorting out definitely sure yes responses

the relationship between the marginal cost of public funds and marginal excess burden a large literature has recently developed which attempts to measure the marginal cost shadow price of public funds the motivation for much of this literature is the recognition that many of the tax instruments used by governments generate substantial amounts of excess burden deadweight loss jerry a hausman 1981 for example estimates that for an average prime aged american male with a wage of ten dollars in 1975 the excess burden generated by the federal income tax was over fifty percent of the revenue raised from taxing that individual one might suspect that such large excess burden estimates would require a change in the way government project costs are calculated in benefit cost analysis if the revenue required to finance a project is raised through distortionary taxation then intuition would suggest that the excess burden generated by the increase in tax rates needed to finance the project should be incorporated into the cost of the project however this analysis is not entirely consistent with the theoretical literature on the optimal provision of public goods which are financed by distortionary taxation when distortionary taxes are used to finance public goods and the level of public good provision does not affect consumption of the taxed goods the standard samuelsonian rule which equates the sum over consumers of the marginal rates of substitution between a private good and a public good with the marginal rate of transformation between the two goods must be modified to account for the marginal effect of increases in tax rates on the revenue raised from the existing taxes 2 the intuition behind this result is that we need to correct for indirect leakages from existing government revenue sources when considering an incremental expenditure if the increase in tax rates needed to finance the project causes a reduction in the revenue raised by the current tax structure then we need to account for this loss in calculating the cost of the project it is important to note that this result concerns the values of uncompensated demand elasticities an example first provided by atkinson and stern 1974 illustrates this point consider a world where the only tax is on labor earnings and incremental expenditure on the public good does not affect the demand for leisure in this case the marginal rate of transformation will overstate the cost of the public good as long as the uncompensated wage elasticity of labor supply is negative this is because an increase in the tax rate causes an increase in labor supply leading to an indirect increase in government revenue from the excess burden perspective described earlier this example is very puzzling it is well known that even if the uncompensated own price elasticity of a good is zero a tax on that good can still result in a large deadweight loss we instead need the compensated elasticity to be zero to ensure that there will be no excess burden however the department of economics university of california davis ca 95616 this paper is based on chapter two of my dissertation at the university of wisconsin madison i wish to thank the members of my dissertation committee martin david robert haveman chair and arthur goldberger for very helpful advice and comments i have also benefited from comments by don fullerton and bruce hamilton an anonymous referee provided unusually helpful comments and corrected an error in the figure 1don fullerton 1989 provides a recent survey and analysis of this literature 2this is shown by anthony atkinson and nicholas h stern 1974 and david e wildasin 1979 the effect of provision of the public good on consumption of the taxed goods must also generally be taken into account

note on the shape of the optimum income tax schedule abstract we consider the class of two bracket piecewise linear tax schedules sheshinski 1971 1972 and provide sufficient conditions for the optimum income tax schedule to have positive marginal rates and to be strictly convex calculations yield optimum tax rates between 20 and 35 percent and moderate rate progression the max min optimum has higher tax rates but not necessarily more rate progression than the utilitarian optimum the conditions are quite general postulating nondecreasing income effects as the level of income increases

on the marginal welfare cost of taxation this paper develops a rigorous partial equilibrium analysis of the determinants of margin al welfare cost mwc of taxes on labor earnings it shows that four key parameters interact to determine the magnitude of mwc using aggregate data and plausible ranges of values for the parameters mwc can vary from under 10 percent to more than 300 percent of marginal tax revenue intermediate parameter values sugge st mwc is in the 25 50 percent range however the more extreme estimates cannot be ruled out on the basis of available evidence suggesting that mwc cannot yet be copyright 1987 by american economic association

ecotourism demand and differential pricing of national park access in costa rica ecotourism presents developing countries with growing opportunities for enhancing resource conservation and economic growth but also raises pressing management and policy challenges this paper presents a conceptual framework and empirical analysis of the impacts of introducing a differential entrance fee policy at three national parks in costa rica data are collected using a contingent behavior methodology designed to elicit information on foreign tourists hypothetical park visitation behaviors at alternative entrance fee levels park visitation demand functions and price and income elasticities are estimated revenue maximizing fees are calculated and applications of differential pricing principles to park management are discussed

starting point bias in dichotomous choice valuation with follow up questioning abstract follow up questions are frequently used to improve the efficiency of dichotomous choice contingent valuation questionnaires however a number of authors e g 12 16 have noted a significant difference between the wtp distributions implied by initial and follow up question responses this paper investigates starting point bias as one explanation for the phenomenon we develop a model of starting point bias in the context of dichotomous choice questioning with follow up using a monte carlo simulation to illustrate the potential bias imparted to wtp estimates an application is provided based on data from a cv study in northcentral iowa

spike models in contingent valuation spike models allow for a nonzero probability of zero willingness to pay in referendum style contingent valuation experiments they include many of the often used models as special cases and allow various analyses that are not possible in standard applications in this paper the economic rationale for the spike models and their estimation techniques are discussed and empirical illustrations are provided one study suggests that mean willingness to pay is zero and both studies strongly suggest that median wtp is zero these results have some bearing on the continuing debate of the incentive properties of hypothetical surveys and the construction of scenarios in contingent valuation experiments

allowing for zeros in dichotomous choice contingent valuation models dichotomous choice contingent valuation data are modeled using a mixture distribution the standard parametric survival model is modified such that respondents in the lowest willingness to pay category may have either zero willingness to pay or a small positive willingness to pay in comparison to the standard model the mixture model leads to a dramatic reduction in estimates of mean willingness to pay covariates such as income are found to be more significant in determining the positive portion of the distribution of willingness to pay

contingent valuation controversies and evidence contingent valuation cv has become one of the most widely used non market valuation techniques cv s prominence is due to its flexibility and ability to estimate total value including passive use value its use and the inclusion of passive use value in benefit cost analyses and environ mental litigation are the subject of a contentious debate this paper discusses key areas of the debate over cv and the validity of passive use value we conclude that many of the alleged problems with cv can be resolved by careful study design and implementation we further conclude that claims that empirical cv findings are theoretically inconsistent are not generally supported by the literature the debate over cv however has clarified several key issues related to nonmarket valuation and can provide useful guidance both to cv practitioners and the users of cv results

prospects for the use of choice modelling for benefit transfer abstract many of the earliest studies that sought to test the validity of benefit transfer which typically involved the use of contingent valuation or travel cost applications produced negative findings one of the recommendations from this early testing was to trial alternative methods to produce source studies for benefit transfer including multi attribute techniques subsequently there have been a number of studies conducted that have sought to test the validity of benefit transfer using choice modelling the purpose of this paper is to review these studies and to assess the current state of knowledge regarding the validity of using choice modelling for the purpose of benefit transfer we also describe and consider the merits of an alternative approach for extending the use of choice modelling in benefit transfer bayesian benefit transfer

procedural invariance testing of the one and one half bound dichotomous choice elicitation method the contingent valuation method for estimating willingness to pay for public goods typically adopts a single referendum question format which is relatively statistically inefficient as an alternative cooper hanemann and signorello 2002 propose the one and one half bound oohb format allowing researchers to question respondents about both a lower and higher limit on project costs thereby securing substantial gains in statistical efficiency using an experimental design we find that responses to oohb valuation questions fail crucial tests of procedural invariance we test various competing models of observed response patterns including strategic misrepresentation of standard preferences and nonstandard models of preference formation

willingness to pay estimates using the double bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation format a test for validity and precision in a bayesian framework the double bounded dichotomous choice db dc contingent valuation format is thought to yield more precise welfare estimates questions remain about its validity the initial bid may represent information with which respondents update their willingness to pay a bayesian model of respondent decision making is estimated for two data sets the results indicate updating or shifts in respondent willingness to pay between iterated valuations nonparametric testing of the welfare estimates reveals that the model incorporating updating yields different values from the standard model the expected increases in the precision of the db dc welfare estimates are lost when updating occurs

modelling willingness to pay responses from dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys with zero observations modelling household behaviour with the data from dichotomous choice contingent valuation dccv surveys is often complicated by zero willingness to pay wtp responses in the sample to deal with the zero responses a two equation model is considered which incorporates a two level decision structure a decision on whether to participate in having wtp and a decision on the wtp amount conditional on deciding to participate and two separate stochastic processes that determine the probability and conditional level of wtp are featured the model is empirically applied to household survey data in which the dccv questions concerned the benefits of air quality improvement in korea to put the issue of the two equation model in perspective this paper also experiments with economic and econometric specifications utility theoretic restriction and heteroscedasticity it is shown how failure to allow for the restriction distorts aggregate benefit estimates and the existence of heteroscedasticity in error term is

international network competition under national regulation we extend the workhorse model of network competition to international calls this model enables us to show that national regulatory authorities nras maximizing domestic welfare have incentives to increase termination rates above the social optimum to extract rent from international call termination excessive termination rates distort prices but transfer surplus from foreign to domestic consumers via intensified network competition the model can explain the regulation of termination rates through rate floors international network ownership and deregulation are alternatives to combat the incentives of nras to distort termination rates we identify conditions under which each of these policies increases aggregate welfare

statistical approaches to the fat tail problem for dichotomous choice contingent valuation if a cumulative density function esti mated from dichotomous choice data has an unre alistically fat right hand tail mean willingness to pay wtp will be overestimated truncating the range of integration results in a lower bound esti mate of the true mean wtp a normalization pro cedure proposed by boyle welsh and bishop 1988 unnecessarily depresses the estimate further a new statistical approach is presented that allows a best guess estimate of mean wtp because this estimate involves extrapolation beyond the range of the data it tends to be highly variable jel q21

payment vehicles for public goods evidence from california s proposition 21 proposition 21 on california s 2010 ballot concerned an annual surcharge on vehicles to support state parks proposition 21 failed leaving 25 of california state parks at risk of closure we analyze voting patterns which we show depend on the average gross price of the proposition political ideology environmental preferences the availability of substitutes and park salience we simulate counterfactual scenarios under which proposition 21 might have passed and use holdout samples to illustrate the predictive ability of our model heterogeneity across california makes our model potentially useful for predicting public sentiment for similar propositions even for jurisdictions without direct democracy

repeated dichotomous choice formats for elicitation of willingness to pay simultaneous estimation and anchoring effect repeated dichotomous choice contingent valuation data are generated from responses to a succession of binary questions regarding alternative prices for an environmental good in this paper we propose a simultaneous equation model that allows for endogeneity and error correlation across the responses at each stage of the bidding process the model allows us to study the evolution of anchoring effects after the second dichotomous choice question estimation involves the bayesian techniques of gibbs sampling and data augmentation and the application focuses on the preservation value of a natural area the results for a data set involving up to four successive dichotomous choice questions show that restricted multiple bounded models are rejected by the data with the general model in addition willingness to pay tends to stabilize after the second stage in the elicitation process for the general unrestricted model when taking anchoring effects into consideration it is revealed that individuals responses in the latter stages are influenced by the sequence of bid prices offered in earlier questions nevertheless they do not have a significant effect on welfare estimates