primitive accumulation agrarian reform and socialist transitions an argument this essay constructs a preliminary argument concerning the position of the peasantry in the twin transitions the first to industrialisation and the second towards socialism within orthodox marxian theory the two transitions are also sequential with the socialist order emerging from the crisis breakdown and overthrow of the capitalist system which in its maturity becomes a fetter upon further development and begets with the inexorability of a law of nature its own negation marx 1969 144 at this juncture the process of proletarianisation has been completed in the economy as a whole including the agricultural sector where the petty peasant producers and artisans have been separated from their means of production and have been reduced to the status of sellers of labour power while the landlords and or sections of the middle and rich peasantry have emerged as capitalist farmers who treat agriculture as a branch of industry integrated fully with the rest of the economy however this bit of marx s theory of history was drafted without the benefit of hindsight and thus far history has resisted conforming to what was expected of it the first socialist revolution broke the capitalist chain not at the strongest but rather at the weakest link and subsequent socialist transitions have also been initiated through revolutionary movements in arenas which display low initial levels of economic especially industrial development at the time of the revolutionary break with the past none of the present roll of socialist economies boasted an advanced industrial sector in none of them was the process of rural proletarianisation anywhere near completion indeed in most cases on both counts the situation was as far from the marxian postulation as could be imagined as such these countries have entered the socialist transition not through the crossroads of industrialisation instead they have launched upon the twin transitions simultaneously

work income and inequality payment systems in the third world frances stewart ed macmillan london 1983 pp x 333 20 00

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

specific experience household structure and intergenerational transfers farm family land and labor arrangements in developing countries data from indian rural household survey was used to test th hypothesis that the coexistence in traditional rural societies of extended intergenerational families infrequent land sales and high reliance on family members as farm laborers is the result of the economic advantages which accrue from the knowledge gained by farming a particular ploy of land over a long period of time the land specific experience of elderly members of a intergenerational household who farmed the land as a child and then as an adult are expecially critical in adverse weather years most previous investigators attributed the existence of multigenerational households the use of family members rather than hired laboreds and the infrequency of land sales to deficiencies in the market i e labor market imperfections and an absence of capital insurance and asset markets in the present investigations these same characteristics are viewed as having an economic advantages a model for estimating the contribution of the experience of the elderly household members to agricultural profits was developed and applied to data from a 3 year panel study of 2900 indian rural farm households the data was collected between 1968 71 by the national council of applied economic research the survey collected information on farm profits farm inputs demographic characteristics and the effects of weather conditions on profits a major limitation of the study was a lack of information on the duration of land ownership age of household members was substituted as a proxy for duration of ownership findings were consistent withe the hypothesis in poor agricultural years gross returns for households which contained an elderly household member were greater than the gross returns for comparable households which did not contain an elderly member the economic advantages of specific knowledge embodied in the experienced elderly farmer were comparable to the economic advantages which accrued to households whose members were more educated the hypothesis cannot fully explain the existence of intergenerational families since there is a relatively large proportion of such families among nonfarm families in many countries including india findings suggest that intergenerational families may provide for more occupational diversity and thereby reduce income risks the specific experience hypothesis has policy implications if technological changes are introduced the value of specific experience may be lost and the frequency of intergenerational households may decline the hypothesis may also explain why farmers are reluctant to agree to land redistribution and consolidation schemes this reluctance may disappear after sufficient technological change has occurred

the economic viability and stability of capitalised family farming an analysis of agricultural decollectivisation in peru agricultural decollectivisation in peru created a nascent capitalist family farm sector does the empirical fact of parcellisation suggest that small scale agriculture is optimal will land reconcentration occur with differentiation among the parceleros studying the causes and consequences of parcellisation provides insight into a number of questions relating to alternative production systems productive efficiency is compared between the parceleros and their co operative predecessors and among the parceleros some conclusions reached are 1 rice yields increased relative to the final years of co operative production 2 sample parceleros and co operatives exhibit similar levels of technical efficiency 3 the production potential of parcelled units is estimated to be less than that of a well functioning co operative system and 4 differentiation among parceleros is occurring as a range of incomes is realised from a more or less homogeneous resource base

the economic theory of agrarian institutions introduction alternative approaches to the theory of institutions in economic development pranab bardhan rational peasants efficient institutions and a theory of rural organization methodological remarks for development economics joseph e stiglitz part 1 land and labour theories of sharecropping nirvikar singh a comparison of principal agent and bargaining solutions the case of tenancy contracts clive bell contracts with eviction in infinitely repeated principal agent relationships bhaskar dutta et al production relations in semi arid african agriculture hans binswanger et al part 2 credit and interlinked transactions rural credit markets the structure of interest rates exploitation and efficiency kaushik basu credit and agrarian class structure mukesh eswaran and ashok kotwal credit rationing tenancy productivity and the dynamics of inequality avishay braverman and joseph e stiglitz on choice among creditors and bonded labour contracts t n srinivasan some aspects of linked product and credit market contracts among risk neutral agents clive bell and t n srinivasan a note on interlinked rural economic arrangements pranab bardhan interlinkages and the pattern of competition debraj ray and kunal sengupta part 3 marketing and insurance agricultural institutions for insurance and stabilization david m newbery peasants risk aversion and the choice of marketing intermediaries and contracts a bargaining theory of equilibrium marketing contracts pinhas zusman part 4 co operatives technology and the state agricultural producer co operatives louis putterman institutional analysis of credit co operatives avishay braverman and j luis guasch agrarian structure technological innovations and the state alain de janvry et al

a measure of income inequality in the u s for the years 1952 1980 based on the beta distribution of the second kind abstract this paper presents gini measures of inequality for the u s size distribution of total income for the years 1952 1980 a beta distribution of the second kind is used as the hypothetical statistical distribution to approximate actual empirical income data we then examine the fit of the distribution and conclude that the beta distribution provides a good approximation to the actual empirical income data

policies in transition lessons from madagascar abstract during the early 1980s the government of madagascar began to reverse its policy of control over rice markets a major participant in the associated policy debate was the world bank which maintained close relations with the relevant government ministries despite this high level of support rice markets were in turmoil by late 1985 over the same period the international monetary fund imf had been instrumental in enforcing a curtailment of rice imports but the government failed to change its method of planning to suit the reduced availability of rice a small change in the seasonal pattern of rice imports would have avoided the market destabilization which so threatened food security given the simplicity of the appropriate policy recommendation it is necessary to understand how government planning processes could have lagged so far behind conditions this paper discusses the nature of policy reform processes and the constraints on policy reform which cause reforms to be staggered it suggests that major food security problems may arise if the transitional set of policies halfway through a reform process contains inconsistencies the case of madagascar is then examined in detail to illustrate how selective attention to policy reform can allow the inconsistencies to arise the major conclusion is that it is unwise to underestimate the sheer administrative burden of implementing policy reform liberalization may reduce the scope of government intervention while increasing its complexity

the social welfare implications decomposability and geometry of the sen family of poverty indices in this paper we propose a unified framework for the sen indices of poverty intensity that shows an explicit connection between the indices and the common underlying social evaluation function we also identify the common multiplicative decomposition of the indices that allows simple and similar geometric interpretations and easy numerical computation jel classification c000 h000 o150 implications en termes de bien etre collectif decomposabilite et geometrie de la famille d indices de pauvretea la sen dans ce memoire les auteurs proposent un cadre d analyse integre des indices d intensite de pauvretea la sen qui souligne la relation explicite entre ces indices et la fonction sociale d evaluation commune qui les soustend les auteurs identifient aussi la decomposition multiplicative commune de ces indices qui permet d en donner des interpretations geometriques simples et idoines et de faire des calculs numeriques faciles

a method for taking models to the data abstract this paper develops a method for combining the power of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with the flexibility of a vector autoregressive time series model to obtain a hybrid that can be taken directly to the data it estimates this hybrid model via maximum likelihood and uses the results to address a number of issues concerning the ability of a prototypical real business cycle model to explain movements in aggregate output and employment in the postwar us economy the stability of the real business cycle model s structural parameters and the performance of the hybrid model s out of sample forecasts

cyclical factor utilization abstract we introduce procyclical labor and capital utilization as well as costs of rapidly increasing employment into a business cycle model plausible variations in factor utilization enable us to explain observed variability of real gnp with considerably smaller economy wide disturbances the costs of adjustment create very interesting and realistic lead and lag relationships employment does not peak until a full quarter after output workweeks effort capital utilization and productivity all sharply lead the business cycle

panterritorial versus regional pricing for maize in zimbabwe abstract this paper presents a spatial equilibrium model of zimbabwe s maize market designed to compare the current system of panterritorial prices with the pareto optimal pattern of regional price variation that would occur in a competitive market the model shows that under baseline 1988 conditions competitive pricing would raise aggregate welfare by about us 14 million annually about 4 of producer plus consumer surplus while improving income distribution by favoring the majority of smallholder farmers in southern deficit areas and urban consumers in northern surplus areas thus the model suggests that liberalization could improve both efficiency and equity administered regional prices in a controlled market could yield some of these gains to the extent that production and processing were brought closer to consumers

poverty and income distribution during adjustment issues and evidence from the oecd project drawing lessons from country studies the authors examine the effects of adjustment policies on the distribution of income in chile cote d ivoire ecuador indonesia malaysia and morocco after analyzing the issues that must be confronted in designing adjustment programs with a focus on poverty they synthesize the main conclusions of the different country studies with simulation exercises they explore the effects of the design of the adjustment packages on poverty and on the sustainability of the measures undertaken in these countries these exercises show considerable diversity in the evolution of income distribution during adjustment they also expose the fatal flaws of narrowly designed adjustment programs adjustment programs whether focused on efficiency or on welfare will fail when they do not recognize the interdependence of the three criteria of efficiency welfare and political feasibility adjustment programs must be carefully packaged to fit country circumstances taking into account both the political and economic environments

conservation agriculture organic marketing and collective action in the honduran hillsides conservation agriculture ca is often perceived to provide win win outcomes for farmers leading to reduced erosion and off site sedimentation as well as improved soil fertility and productivity however adoption rates for ca in many regions of the world remain below expected levels this article looks at the effects of participation in organic markets and farmers organizations on the adoption of soil conservation practices based on original survey data from 241 small scale farm households in honduras we find that both participation in organic markets and farmer based groups have positive effects on the number of soil conservation practices adopted the results indicate that besides supply oriented policy measures such as the provision of technical assistance and extension demand related factors are likely to play an important role in sustainable soil management demand oriented policy measures include support for labeling initiatives and consumer education to facilitate value added product differentiation and market segmentation jel classifications q01 q12 q13 q16

how relevant are specifications of behavioral relations on the micro level for modelling the time path of population aggregates abstract this paper shows that the specification of behavioural relations at the individual level does not play a dominant role in determining the sort of relation among aggregates discussed more important are certain invariant features of the distribution of household characteristics and attributes these invariants allow one to derive an aggregate consumption relation it is shown that some of the coefficients of a first order approximation of that relation describing the effect of changing income dispersion the effect of the growth of mean income and the effect of changes in the distribution of household attributes can be estimated from cross section data without any need to specify a model of micro behaviour

poverty and inequality under income and price dispersions many policies simultaneously affect the distribution of prices and incomes in the economy moreover a bias may occur when there is a stochastic relationship between prices and incomes and this relationship is being ignored it is therefore important to dispose of an analytical framework for welfare analysis that could account for changes in this joint distribution how can the joint influences of price and income distributions on poverty and inequality indicators be analysed we offer a method to deal with this problem by using parametric formulae of poverty and inequality measures we propose statistical indicators for the levels variabilities and a statistical link of price indices and nominal living standards these indicators are consistent with an approximation of the problem based on a bivariate lognormal distribution of price indices and nominal living standards our analysis provides hints about the social welfare impact of economic shocks or policies affecting levels variabilities and correlation of prices and incomes intuitive insights are obtained while using arithmetic means and variances instead does not lead to illuminating results the role of price and income variabilities for poverty and inequality is more complex than generally expected with the possibility of several variation regimes empirical investigation of these statistics would guide social policies

revisiting the sen poverty index a modification of the official sen poverty index yields an index which is not only continous in individual incomes and consistent with the transfer axiom but also admits a geometric interpretation in terms of the area beneath a graph called the inverse generalized lorenz curve for normalized poverty gaps by jenkins and lambert 1993 or the poverty gap profile by shorrocks 1994

spatial integration transport costs and the response of local prices to policy changes in ghana abstract this paper investigates the respective roles of spatial integration and transport costs in explaining price changes in ghana we introduce a model of price formation and market integration that incorporates the price transmission process between local and central markets and also captures the implications for volatility of local prices we explore the implications of the model for the time path of price adjustments as determined directly and indirectly through the marketing sector we show that the price adjustment process in a local market is determined by the degree of interdependence between that market and the central market in which a price shock originates and estimate the intertemporal and interspatial dynamics of the price adjustment process using data from wholesale maize markets in ghana we find that reductions in local prices and local price variance following the introduction of economic reforms in 1983 can be traced to both local and central market forces but that differences in the degree of market integration have important implications for long run changes in transport costs and the evolution of prices in outlying markets

labor and investment frictions in a real business cycle model abstract this paper develops a prototype real business cycle model in which labor and investment frictions may compete directly with technology shocks in accounting for fluctuations in the postwar us economy using ireland s 2004a a method for taking models to the data journal of economic dynamics and control 28 1205 1226 methodology we establish that both types of friction are quantitatively important technology shocks still explain a substantial fraction of the fluctuations in aggregate output as the baseline real business cycle model predicts formal hypothesis tests suggest that changes in the recurrence of shocks frictions and structural parameters all play a role in accounting for the shift in the time series properties of the data between the periods before and after 1980

transition and enterprise restructuring the development of individual farming in romania economic reforms have induced enterprise restructuring in transition countries in agriculture the most dramatic form of restructuring is the break up of state and collective farms into individual farms the development of individual farming varies strongly between countries regions and households this paper uses household level data from a 1996 survey in romania to analyze which household and regional characteristics determine the shift to individual farming individual farming is influenced by several household characteristics such as the human capital education age farming experience physical capital endowments ownership of land buildings machinery livestock and access to other finance sources off farm wages pensions furthermore environmental factors such as infrastructure local access to inputs and the pre reform importance of individual farming in the region all affect the development of individual farming

forecasting canadian time series with the new keynesian model this paper assesses the out of sample forecasting accuracy of the new key nesian model for canada we estimate a variant of the model on a series of rolling sub samples computing out of sample forecasts one to eight quarters ahead at each step we compare these forecasts with those arising from vector autoregression var models us ing econometric tests of forecasting accuracy we show that the forecasting accuracy of the new keynesian model compares favourably with that of the benchmarks particularly as the forecasting horizon increases these results suggest that the model could become a useful forecasting tool for canadian time series jel classification e32 e37

the role of intratemporal adjustment costs in a multisector economy abstract in this paper we construct a multisector business cycle model which is capable of reproducing the procyclical behavior of cross sector measures of capital employment and output we start by documenting the difficulty that a standard variant of a conventional real business cycle model has in accounting for these facts we then show how the introduction of intratemporal adjustment costs for investment can significantly enhance the performance of such a model these costs make it difficult to alter the composition of production of new capital goods the presence of these costs eliminates many counterfactual observations of the model that would otherwise be present the dynamic response of variables in the model is different from what one would observe in the standard one sector model we also examine the implications of imposing intratemporal adjustment costs for labor the model can also account for the cross sector behavior of employment observed in the data

the household responsibility system reform and the adoption of hybrid rice in china abstract this paper studies the diffusion of hybrid rice before and after the recent institutional change from the collective team system to the household based farming system in rural china a simple model which treats the adoption of hybrid rice as a portfolio selection problem is presented the model is tested against time series cross county data collected from hunan province in south china the empirical evidence suggests that 1 adoption behavior in the collective system was not consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model this evidence indicates the existence of administrative intervention in influencing production decisions in the collective system 2 there was a significant change in the structure of the adoption function following the transition from the collective system to the household based system and 3 adoption behavior in the household system is consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model

accumulation social services and socialist transition in the third world reflections on decentralised planning based on the mozambican experience the purpose of this article is to argue for the viability and the logic of a distinctive approach to planning economic development and socialist transition in poor economies the components of this distinctive approach are more decentralised and popularly based planning and control of accumulation the close interlinking of investment in social services and in rural production and an emphasis on intervention in the market as a tool of socialist planning the article therefore presents an argument about economic planning intended to be relevant to a range of countries with similar general aims and problems however the ideas are developed here as they were in practice through a reflection on our own understanding of planning andits problems in mozambique during the first ten years of that country s independence 1

consumption smoothing migration and marriage evidence from rural india a significant proportion of migration in low income countries particularly in rural areas is composed of moves by women for the purpose of marriage we seek to explain these mobility patterns by examining marital arrangements among indian households in particular we hypothesize that the marriage of daughters to locationally distant dispersed yet kinship related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks analysis of longitudinal south indian village data lends support to the hypothesis marriage cum migration contributes significantly to a reduction in the variability of household food consumption farm households afflicted with more variable profits tend to engage in longer distance marriage cum migration the hypothesized and observed marriage cum migration patterns are in dissonance with standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains

exchange rate fiscal and agricultural policies in africa does adjustment hurt the poor abstract trade exchange rate fiscal and agricultural sector policy reforms are the pillars of structural adjustment programs in africa results indicate that trade and exchange rate reforms are associated with a large decline in economic rents and a shift in relative prices that favor the rural and urban poor fiscal reforms have not brought about draconian belt tightening measures although the incidence of public spending particularly in the social sectors and in terms of public sector employment remains far from progressive reduction of export crop taxation contributes to higher incomes for the poor and domestic food crop liberalization has not led to increases in purchase prices of staple commodities for most low income households

agricultural marketing and pricing reform a review of experience abstract south africa like many other countries has in the past pursued a highly interventionist policy in agricultural marketing and pricing but has recently embarked on a process of at least partial liberalization the paper reviews the reasons for nature of and impact of marketing reform in sub saharan africa and elsewhere it concludes that the results of reform have in general been positive although implementation has been more difficult and time consuming than originally expected in part because of interest group politics and in part because of its inherent complexity the paper highlights some issues of particular relevance to south africa s current political and economic transition

cooperation and part time farming in the israeli moshav a simultaneous equations model of the israeli moshav in which the levels of cooperative marketing part time and full time farming output and capital stock are endogenous is developed and empirically estimated in the process hypotheses relating to the problem of voluntary collective action are tested

economic reform and food prices evidence from markets in ghana abstract this paper investigates trends in food prices in ghana during 1970 1993 regression results confirm that real wholesale prices of food have been declining since the 1970s price trends in the 1980s are characterized by a downward shift at the beginning of the postreform period and a subsequent continuing downward trend despite falling grain prices we find that agricultural wage rates failed to provide an adequate basis for subsistence particularly during periods of large seasonal price rises many farmers hold grain for both speculation and to smooth income this view is supported by evidence regarding seasonal price spreads that have been increasing since 1984 we find no support however for conclusions of trader manipulation of marketing margins during the adjustment period

food production strategy debates in revolutionary ethiopia abstract for more than a decade two strategies of rural development have competed for the attention of ethiopian policymakers 1 the smallholder approach based on individual freehold a strong private sector and public expenditures in support of essential agricultural sector institutions and infrastructure and 2 the agrarian socialism approach based on collective ownership of the means of production group farming state farms and government control of marketing the article reviews the history and direction of this debate outlining in the process current government policies aimed at promoting agrarian socialism and their effects on food production and the quality of rural life it concludes that ethiopia will suffer ever increasing food deficits until it abandons its current agrarian strategy in favor of smallholder productivity and it offers a range of options for donors involved in programs and projects promoting ethiopia s agricultural development

factor hoarding and the propagation of business cycles shocks this paper analyzes the role of variable capital utilization rates in propagating shocks over the business cycle to this end we formulate and estimate an equilibrium business cycle model in which cyclical capital utilization rates are viewed as a form of factor hoarding we find that variable capital utilization rates substantially magnify and propagate the impact of shocks to agents environments the strength of these propagation effects is evident in the dynamic response functions of various economy wide aggregates to shocks in agents environments in the statistics that we construct to summarize the strength of the propagation mechanisms in the model and in the volatility of exogenous technology shocks needed to explain the observed variability in aggregate u s output other authors have argued that standard real business cycle rbc models fail to account for certain features of the data because they do not embody quantitatively important propagation mechanisms these features include the observed positive serial correlation in the growth rate of output the shape of the spectrum of the growth rate of real output and the correlation between the forecastable component of real output and various other economic aggregates allowing for variable capital utilization rates substantially improves the ability of the model to account for these features of the data

rural financial markets in developing countries their use and abuse until recently the use of agricultural credit as a developmental tool seemed clear and straightforward most concerned people believed that increases in the volume of cheap credit were necessary to boost agricultural production and that the rural poor could be brought into the mainstream of development through supervised credit programs it seemed that certain ideal types of rural credit institutions offered the promise of meeting farmers credit needs and that experience in the industrialized countries with cooperatives and specialized agricultural finance institutions could be effectively transplanted to low income countries this collection of readings highlights facets of rural financial markets that have often been neglected in discussions of agricultural credit in developing countries it moves beyond a narrow concern with the simple provision of credit to a broad consideration of the performance of rural financial markets and of ways to improve the quality and range of financial services for low income farmers it reflects new thinking on the design administration evaluation and policy framework of rural finance and credit programs in developing countries

did technology shocks cause the 1990 91 recession real business cycle theory has been used to determine the statistical properties of aggregate fluctuations induced by technology shocks the finding is that technology shocks have been an important contributor to fluctuations in the u s economy for example finn e kydland and prescott 1991 estimate that if the only impulses were technology shocks the u s economy would have been 70 percent as volatile as it has been over the postwar period in this paper we employ the theory to answer the question did technology shocks cause the 1990 1991 recession answering this question requires the determination of the effects of technology shocks on the path of the economy the procedure that we use to make this determination is as follows first we construct a model economy and calibrate it so that its steady state matches actual 1987 values data for other years are used to determine the realizations of the shocks and the nature of the stochastic processes generating these shocks given these stochastic processes the equilibrium decision rules for our calibrated economy are computed we then construct the path for the economy implied by the model for the period 1984 1 1992 3 we set 1984 1 model values of the state variables equal to actual 1984 1 values and use the decision rules and the realized shocks to construct this path finally we examine whether the model economy experiences a recession in 1991 as did the u s economy business cycles are variations in output per adult that are in large part accounted for by variation in the per adult time allocated to market production figure 1 plots the time path of the per adult labor input during the 1983 1 1989 1 period there was a remarkable 12 percent increase in the labor input per adult beginning in 1990 2 there has been a decline of nearly 6 percent in this per adult labor input an unusual feature of the recovery subsequent to the 1990 1991 recession is that this labor input variable has continued to decline well into the recovery this unusual behavior leads to a related question did technology shocks cause the slow recovery we found it necessary to modify the standard real business cycle model in four ways in order to answer the posed question first given the enormous changes in the relative prices of durables as depicted in figure 2 we could not treat technology change as being neutral with respect to different types of final goods following john b long and charles plosser 1983 and jeremy greenwood et al 1992 we consider multiple production sectors with technology change differing across sectors second we assume that there is a technology employed within the household sector that produces a consumption flow from the stock of consumer durables third we consider land to be a factor of production in addition to labor and capital our fourth modification is to introduce population growth

explaining business cycles a multiple shock approach abstract aiyagari 1992 and prescott 1986 1991 claim that a large fraction of the variance of united states quarterly detrended real gnp is attributable to an unobservable shock to total factor productivity this paper argues that the importance of a productivity shock in explaining the variance of output is fundamentally indeterminate any model that is in accord with the several time series that make up united states macroeconomic data must feature multiple shocks that are correlated at all leads and lags sorting out the separate effects of these various shocks on a single variable such as real gnp is impossible we illustrate this argument using a multiple shock version of the king plosser rebelo 1988 benchmark real business cycle model

south african land policy the legacy of history and current options abstract the highly dualistic farm structure of south africa and the low productivity of native african farmers have been the result of systematic distortions in land allocation output markets the provision of infrastructure agricultural credit and services the dualistic structure did not emerge because of genuine economies of scale in the large commercial sector other countries in latin america and africa that once supported a dualistic farm size structure through similar distortions have either implemented large scale land reforms or have experienced decades of peasant revolts and civil war the paper compares these international experiences to south africa and outlines judicial and market assisted approaches to south african land reform

keynesian impulses versus solow residuals identifying sources of business cycle fluctuations we employ a neoclassical business cycle model that builds on the greenwood hercowitz and huffman 1988 variable utilization framework to study two sources of business cycl e fluctuations marginal efficiency of investment shocks and total factor productivity shocks the parameters of the model are estimated using a bayesian procedure that accommodates prior uncertainty about their magnitudes from these estimates posterior distributions of the two shocks are obtained the postwar u s experience suggests that both shocks are important in understanding fluctuations but that total factor productivity shocks are primarily responsible for beginning and ending recessions

rural reforms and agricultural growth in china this paper employs province level panel data to assess the contributions of decollectivization price adjustments and other reforms to china s agricultural growth in the reform period decollectivization is found to improve total factor productivity and to account for about half of the output growth during 1978 84 the adjustment in state procurement prices also contributed positively to output growth its impact came mainly from the responses in input use the effect of other market related reforms on productivity and output growth was very small reasons for slowdown in agricultural growth after 1984 are also analyzed copyright 1992 by american economic association

transforming feudal agriculture agrarian change in ethiopia since 1974 this article seeks to examine the nature and consequences of agrarian change in ethiopia since the revolution of 1974 it argues that while the reforms implemented since 1975 have effectively destroyed the age old feudal framework of agriculture they have not yet created a coherent new framework even though the government s proclaimed objective is to develop a co operative framework not much progress in that direction has so far been made in fact state policies in the past few years were dictated by the need to cope with short term problems arising from a decline in production and marketed surplus of food in the immediate aftermath of the reforms the analysis in this article shows that the basic problem of peasant agriculture is that it currently produces only a meagre economic surplus at this stage therefore agricultural growth is to be achieved primarily through the promotion of labour investment this is the principal argument for co operativisation this view suggests state policies which are

labor hoarding and the business cycle this paper investigates the sensitivity of solow residual based measures of technology shocks to labor hoarding behavior using a structural model of labor hoarding and the identifying restriction that innovations to technology shocks are orthogonal to innovations in government consumption we estimate the fraction of the variability of the solow residual that is due to technology shocks our results support the view that a significant proportion of movements in the solow residual are artifacts of labor hoarding behavior specifically we estimate that the variance of innovations to technology is roughly 50 percent less than that implied by standard real business cycle models in addition our results suggest that existing real business cycle studies substantially overstate the extent to which technology shocks account for the variability of postwar aggregate u s output

on measuring the welfare cost of business cycles lucas 1987 argues that the gain from eliminating aggregate fluctuations is trivial following lucas a number of researchers have altered assumptions on preferences and found that the gain from eliminating business cycles are potentially very large however in these exercises little discipline is placed on preference parameters this paper estimates the welfare cost of business cycles allowing for potential time non separabilities in preferences where discipline is placed on the choice of preference parameters by requiring that the preferences be consistent with observed fluctuations in a model of business cycles that is a theoretical real business cycle world is constructed and the representative agent is then placed in this world the agent responds optimally to exogenous shocks given the frictions in the economy the agent s preference parameters along with other structural parameters are estimated using a bayesian procedure involving markov chain monte carlo methods two main results emerge from the paper first the form for the time non separability estimated in this paper is very different than the forms suggested and used elsewhere in the literature second the welfare cost of business cycles is close to lucas s estimate

technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated hybrid rbc model this paper contributes to the on going empirical debate regarding the role of the rbc model and in particular of technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations to this end we estimate the model s posterior density using markov chain monte carlo mcmc methods within this framework we extend ireland s 2001 2004 hybrid estimation approach to allow for a vector autoregressive moving average varma process to describe the movements and co movements of the model s errors not explained by the basic rbc model the results of marginal likelihood ratio tests reveal that the more general model of the errors significantly improves the model s fit relative to the var and ar alternatives moreover despite setting the rbc model a more difficult task under the varma specification our analysis based on forecast error and spectral decompositions suggests that the rbc model is still capable of explaining a significant fraction of the observed variation in macroeconomic aggregates in the post war u s economy

recent developments in the market for rural land use in china a market for rural land use or the right to use land has resurged since the early 1980s when the system of contracting land to individual households was introduced in china the market per se is not as common as in most countries as ownership of land is vested in rural collectives it has been a most controversial issue in recent years though some amendments to land policy have been made this paper is an attempt to clarify the actual situation and major characteristics of the market a case study is presented brief conclusions and proposals follow

urban rural cost of living differentials in a developing economy abstract casual observations suggest that the cost of living is substantially greater in urban than rural areas of developing economies with implications for sectoral welfare comparisons an aids demand model for housing and foodgrains is estimated on a household level data set for java after adjusting housing rents for heterogeneity in quality the retrieved cost function indicates that the cost of utility at the urban price vector exceeds its rural value although the differential has been substantially overestimated in the past the relative cost of urban living is found to increase as reference rural income increases

what do residuals from first order conditions reveal about dge models the first order condition foc associated with labour in many dynamic general equilibrium models involves only current period variables residuals constructed from this foc are inconsistent with aggregate us data in that they are very large and highly persistent the persistence suggests that models which introduce dynamic terms in the labour foc may be more consistent with the data three such models one with learning by doing one with habit formation and one with labour adjustment costs confirm that they can reduce the persistence in the residuals making the models more consistent with the joint dynamics of consumption output and hours

food subsidies and poverty alleviation this paper formulates the problem of the optimal pattern of food subsidies in a general setting where the objective is to minimize a class of poverty indices within the framework of the mo dern public finance theory taking explicit account of the budget con straint and preferences and technologies the authors derive rules fo r retargetting food subsidies to reduce poverty many operational rul es of thumb appear as special cases of the general results the analy sis thus provides not only the microfoundations of these operational rules but also their appropriate generalizations when the conditions under which they arise are not fulfilled copyright 1988 by royal economic society

an axiomatic characterization of the watts poverty index abstract although the first distribution sensitive decomposable poverty index the watts index has long been neglected by the profession even when it was searching for a decomposable index this neglect is due partly to the lack of an axiomatic characterization for the watts index this paper adopts an axiomatic approach and complements the watts index with such a characterization under a set of reasonable axioms the watts index is the unique index if a poverty index is perceived as the absolute amount of social welfare loss due to poverty the watts index is relatively easy to apply it also satisfies all basic axioms for a good poverty index

fragmented duopoly theory and applications to backward agriculture abstract the central aim of this paper is to provide a formal description of the idea of market fragmentation which is so widely used to describe markets in backward agriculture we begin by describing a fragmented duopoly in which each seller has a captive set of customers and there is a non captive set who may buy from either seller the nash cournot equilibria of the system are analyzed and then the model is generalized to allow for the endogenous determination of the captive sets the subgame perfect equilibrium of the model provides a useful background for studying familiar topics like fragmentation interlinkage and disguised unemployment from a new point of view

intermediate inputs and sectoral comovement in the business cycle abstract the post war us business cycle is characterized by positive comovement of employment and output across sectors it has been argued that multi sector growth models are inconsistent with this observation when changes in relative productivities are the main source of fluctuations we suggest that the input output structure of an economy in particular the pervasive use of intermediate inputs can induce positive comovement in sectoral employment and output following changes in relative productivities we calibrate a model of the us economy for the durable and nondurable goods producing sectors and show that sectoral employment and output move together if intermediate inputs are used in production the model is also consistent with the observation that the relative price of nondurable goods is procyclical

grain marketing regulations impact on peasant production in ethiopia abstract during the past 10 years ethiopia has established an elaborate system of trade restrictions producer quotas and fixed producer prices for purchasing a substantial proportion of peasants marketable surplus recent evidence suggests that the quotas are inequitably allocated among areas and that low fixed prices reduce farmer incomes incentives to use improved inputs and grain production regulation of marketplaces and interregional grain trade have important negative effects on consumers producers and the national economy by increasing grain prices the state can stimulate production and ensure adequate supplies of grain without the need for compulsory quotas relaxing the restrictions on marketplaces and on interregional trade can benefit farmers consumers and the national economy with few costs

the substitution bias of the laspeyres price index an analysis using estimated cost of living indexes the most commonly used measure of the cost of living the consumer price index cpi published by the bureau of labor statistics is essentially a laspeyres price index it is well known however that a laspeyres price index provides an upward biased estimate of the cost of living because in keeping the same base period basket of goods as weights it does not take into account substitution among commodities induced by relative price changes the magnitude of the bias is an empirical question which is the focus of this study an estimate of the substitution bias may be obtained by taking the difference between the laspeyres price index and an estimated true cost of living index the true cost of living index cli is based on the theory of consumer demand it is the ratio of the minimum expenditures under two different price regimes necessary to maintain a constant level of utility as opposed to the constant basket of goods in the laspeyres index the size of the bias depends on two factors 1 the size of consumption substitution elasticities if there is no commodity substitution then the cli and laspeyres index coincide regardless of changes in relative prices and 2 the magnitude of relative price changes if all prices move together then the cli and laspeyres index again coincide regardless of the size of substitution elasticities in order to compute a true cli it is necessary to specify a particular utility function and estimate the parameters of the resulting system of demand equations see for example louis phlips p 135 several estimates of the magnitude of the substitution bias have appeared in the literature but all previous studies suffer from a common weakness they are all based on a very small number of commodities essentially because of econometric problems involved in estimating large systems of demand equations in one group of studies demand models have been estimated using highly aggregated data in which total consumption is grouped into four to nine aggregate commodites such as housing durables or clothing arthur goldberger and theodore gamaletsos for example estimate the linear expenditure system les demand model using data on five aggregate goods for several european countries and compare the resulting cli for one of the countries greece to the corresponding laspeyres price index tran van hoa estimates costof living indexes for six australian provinces using data on nine aggregate goods phlips cites work by r sanz ferrer who computed a cli for belgium from data on eight aggregate commodities in such studies using highly aggregated data the estimate of the substitution bias may be understated because the aggregation obscures substitution in consumption within categories which is perhaps more prevalent than substitution between gross aggregates another shortcoming of these three aggregate studies is the fact that they use only a single demand system and hence do not explore the sensitivity of the cli to a priori u s bureau of labor statistics the groundwork for this study was my dissertation i would like to thank the chairman and members of my committee r robert russell llad phillips and robert deacon for their support and helpful suggestions and jack triplett robert pollak richard j mcdonald and a referee for valuable comments on an earlier version the views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect the policies of the bureau of labor statistics for a theoretical discussion of cost of living indexes see robert pollak 1971b and paul samuelson and subramanian swamy

structural adjustment and the welfare of rural smallholders a comparative analysis from sub saharan africa the direction and level of changes in real incomes brought about by structural adjustment are determined by a variety of factors including sources of income patterns of expenditures and movements in relative prices in the wake of adjustment an econometric model is used to derive an index of real income which is employed for data from cote d ivoire ghana malawi madagascar and tanzania no systematic changes in relative prices and especially in the ratio of tradable to nontradable prices were noted after the beginning of adjustment although the diversity of income sources implies that the implications of movements in relative prices on smallholder welfare are indeed complex the results indicate that there is no unequivocal pattern of increase or decline in the real welfare of the rural poor but that there are marked differences among countries and regions

long run implications of investment specific technological change an attempt is made to disentangle its effects from the more traditional hicksneutral form of technological progress the balanced growth path for the model is characterized and calibrated to u s national income and product account nipa data the quantitative analysis suggests that investment specific technological change accounts for the major part of growth jel e13 030 041 047

behavioural and material determinants of production relations in agriculture in this essay we develop a framework for analysing the major institutions governing the production and exchange of output and the primary factors of production in rural areas the analysis incorporates general considerations of risk and information constraints jointly with the principal material attributes of agriculture and of agricultural production factors the framework is used to analyse barriers to the existence of the major intertemporal and factor markets it is applied specifically to land scarce environments for which it provides an internally consistent explanation for many of the well documented institutional features of such settings in addition the analysis provides new implications for among other phenomena the inter relationships among ownership holdings operational scale family size and factor productivity for the scarcity of animal rental markets and use of animals as collateral for the renting out of land by small landowners and for the existence of plantations for certain crops

productive efficiency of specialty and conventional coffee farmers in costa rica accounting for technological heterogeneity and self selection a steep decline in coffee prices at the producer level led to considerable pressure for farmers in costa rica and producer countries all over the world one possible reaction was moving to specialty markets where price pressure was perceived to be lower we use original survey data from 2002 2003 and 2003 2004 to analyze the factors influencing participation in specialty markets and to estimate separate production functions for specialty and conventional coffee farmers allowing for farm specific inefficiencies applying a sample selection framework we find significant selection bias in the sub sample of specialty farmers and evidence for the overestimation of efficiency if this bias is not adequately controlled for among the most important factors that influence farm specific efficiency levels in the two sub samples are the availability of additional income activities experience in coffee cultivation and membership in cooperatives based on the results we derive policy recommendations to improve farmers production performance and ability to cope with the effects of the coffee crisis these policy measures include the provision of extension services with respect to farm management skills the creation of income opportunities in rural areas and the support of farmer owned cooperatives

gaining ground poverty in the postwar united states official measures of poverty in the united states are compiled by the bureau of the census by comparing a household s income level to a prespecified threshold from a theoretical perspective it is more appropriate to evaluate the level of poverty using a consumption based measure of household welfare in this paper i evaluate the level of poverty using expenditure data from the consumer expenditure survey i find that consumption based poverty rates are much lower than those based on income the trend in the poverty rate in the united states is sensitive to the price index and equivalence scales used to adjust the poverty thresholds

prices and living standards evidence for rwanda abstract we review the explanations of the statistical relationship between spatial price indices and real living standards then using data from several seasons in rural rwanda we show that these variables are negatively associated hinting at price discrimination against the poor in that case policies permanently improving of market functioning may simultaneously improve efficiency and equity moreover under a hypothesis of weak association of nominal living standards and price indices we derive simplified formulae for social welfare indicators these formulae depend only on a small number of sample statistics obtainable from separate publications for prices and living standards

food pricing policy in developing countries further evidence on cereal producer prices recently two independent studies have produced contradicting evidence regarding the extent of price discrimination in developing countries the objective of this study is to reexamine the evidence of direct and indirect distortion in cereal producer prices nominal protection coefficients for wheat maize and rice are calculated for fifty one developing countries spanning the period 1980 86 black market exchange rates are used to adjust the nominal protection coefficients to reflect the indirect effect of price interventions through exchange rate policies the results confirm the conventional wisdom that although developing countries tend to protect domestic cereal producers taxation caused by overvaluation of official exchange rates exceeds any direct price protection offered domestic producers

using theory for measurement an analysis of the cyclical behavior of home production abstract a significant amount of economic activity takes place within the home unfortunately it is difficult to assess the cyclical properties of home production because the available data are too sporadic using a real business cycle rbc model we construct quarterly data on three variables that are unobservable at a quarterly frequency hours worked in the home sector hours spent in leisure and the consumption of home produced goods three results emerge leisure is countercyclical while nonmarket hours are acyclical hours spent in home production have declined significantly since the 1970s fluctuations in market output are a good measure of fluctuations in individual utility as long as home and market consumption are either extreme complements or extreme substitutes in the production of utility

the distributional dimensions of revolutionary transition ethiopia this study attempts to investigate some of the distributional costs that have attended upon the process of revolutionary transition in ethiopia focusing on the crucial role of the rural sector in this regard the central variable through which this sector influenced national economic performance was the marketed proportion of output the study deals with this linkage and with the macroeconomic distributional outcomes of the growth process for the rural and urban sectors the probable distributional implications of the ten year plan are elicited and the sobering findings provide the motivational force behind a few strategic policy considerations that are briefly outlined it is argued that the national economic growth process was seriously imbalanced and the sluggishness of agriculture meant that the growth was financed through an inflationary process which passed on the costs of accumulation substantially on to the poorer sections of the population

collective agricultural production a solution for transition economies abstract the paper examines theoretical reasons and provides examples for productivity differences between agricultural service cooperatives and collectives service cooperatives can utilize economies of scale enhance competitiveness and provide technical information advantages that often outweighed problems of free riding low investment and excessive political intervention agricultural collectives while not adding substantial advantages are in addition associated with problems of supervision and effort supply tendencies to substitute casual workers or mechanization for regular members and low investment incentives while collective forms of organization in transition economies respond to high risk and market imperfections they do so inefficiently policies that create conditions for service cooperatives to compete may lead to large productivity gains

real business cycles in this paper we demonstrate how certain very ordinary economic principles lead maximizing individuals to choose consumption production plans that display many of the characteristics commonly associated with business cycles our explanation is entirely consistent with i rational expectations ii complete current information iii stable preferences iv no technological change v no long lived commodities vi no frictions or adjustment costs vii no government viii no money and ix no serial dependence in the stochastic elements of the environment we also provide a completely worked out example of the type of artificial economy we have in mind the time series properties of the example exhibit some major features of observed business cycles although this type of model may not be capable of explaining all of the regularities in actual business cycles we believe that it provides a useful well defined benchmark for assessing the relative importance of factors e g monetary disturbances

agrarian reform as a model of accumulation the case of nicaragua since 1979 despite the fact that the historical experience of the construction of socialism has taken place in predominantly agrarian societies it is notorious that the agrarian question remains unresolved and constrains their progress to a greater or lesser degree this is all the more crucial for those revolutions of the second half of the twentieth century which generated in the third world by the liberation struggle not only seek an increased food supply as the basis for raising popular living standards but also greater exports from the primary sector to secure imports of producer goods thus the agrarian question becomes central to the accumulation model not only as a source of investible surplus but also as part of the articulation between the different forms of production which underlie the inherited social structure an account of the nicaraguan experience of agrarian reform in its first five years 1980 84 should have some intrinsic interest it also serves to illustrate this central problem of th