forecasting crude oil price movements with oil sensitive stocks this paper uses monthly data from 1984 m10 to 2012 m8 to show that oil sensitive stock price indices particularly those in the energy sector have strong power in predicting nominal and real crude oil prices at short horizons one month ahead predictions using both in and out of sample tests in particular the forecasts based on oil sensitive stock price indices are able to outperform significantly the no change forecasts for example using the nyse arca amex oil index as a predictor the one month ahead forecasts for nominal crude oil prices reduce the mean squared prediction error by between 22 for the west texas intermediate oil price and 28 for the dubai oil price moreover we find that the directional forecast based the amex oil index is ignificantly better than a 50 50 coin toss the novelty of this analysis is that it proposes a new and valuable predictor that both reflects timely market information and is readily available for forecasting the spot oil price

how do daily changes in oil prices affect us monthly industrial output detecting asymmetry has become increasingly difficult using single frequency data this paper goes beyond the prevailing use of aggregate averaged data in order to provide a more in depth treatment of the dynamic effects of the price of crude oil on industrial output growth to do so we propose an asymmetric mixed data sampling amidas model to examine if there is any concealed evidence of asymmetry arising from daily effects of the price of crude oil on monthly changes in industrial output in the united states us we find that this model is able to detect dynamic asymmetric impacts of a high frequency independent variable on a low frequency dependent variable more effectively than when the high frequency variable is aggregated up at the time interval of the low frequency variable we find that in comparison with the marginal lagged effects of a rise in the daily price of crude oil the effects of a fall in the daily price of crude oil are more sluggish as it takes longer for the effects of the oil price drop to die off over time this finding implies that a fall in the price of crude oil shifts the supply curve rightward less and at a much slower pace than an equivalent price rise shifts it to the left

equal votes equal money court ordered redistricting and the distribution ofpublic expenditures in the american states a study of the effects of legislative re districting in the states during the 1960 s also contains data file

forecasting the real price of oil time variation and forecast combination abstract this paper sheds light on the questions whether it is possible to generate an accurate forecast of the real price of oil and how it can be improved using forecast combinations for this reason the following paper will investigate the out of sample performance of seven individual forecasting models the results show that it is possible to construct better forecasts compared to a no change benchmark for horizons up to 24 months with gains in the mspe ratio as high as 25 in addition some of the existing models will be extended e g the u s inventories model by introducing more suitable real time measures for the brent crude oil price and the var model of the global oil market by using different measures for the economic activity furthermore the time performance investigated by constructing recursively estimated mspe ratios discovers potential weaknesses of the used models hence several different combination approaches are tested with the goal of demonstrating that a combination of individual models is beneficial for the forecasting performance thereby a combination consisting of four models has proven to have a lower mspe ratio than the best individual models over the medium run and in addition to be remarkably stable over time

macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area country specific versus area wide information abstract this paper compares several time series methods for short run forecasting of euro wide inflation and real activity using data from 1982 to 1997 forecasts are constructed from univariate autoregressions vector autoregressions single equation models that include euro wide and us aggregates and large model methods in which forecasts are based on estimates of common dynamic factors aggregate euro wide forecasts are constructed from models that utilize only aggregate euro wide variables and by aggregating country specific models the results suggest that forecasts constructed by aggregating the country specific models are more accurate than forecasts constructed using the aggregate data

technical efficiency and scope economies in hospitals the main purposes are to develop a method for measuring the economies of scope which involves the use of non parametric production frontiers and does not require information on input prices and to apply this method to individual hospital data drawn from a sample of spanish hospitals the results confirm the presence of technical inefficiencies and also of potential and non exploited economies of scope the combination that produces most economies of scope is that of gynaecology and paediatrics

predicting crude oil prices replication of the empirical results in what do we learn from the price of crude oil summary in addition to their theoretical analysis of the joint determination of oil futures prices and oil spot prices alquist and kilian journal of applied econometrics 2010 25 4 539 573 compare the out of sample accuracy of the random walk forecast with that of forecasts based on oil futures prices and other predictors the results of my replication exercise are very similar to the original forecast accuracy results but the relative accuracy of the random walk forecast and the futures based forecast changes when the sample is extended to august 2016 consistent with the results of several other recent studies by kilian and co authors

the effects of oil price uncertainty on global real economic activity this paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on global real economic activity using a quarterly vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility in mean stochastic volatility allows oil price uncertainty to vary separately from changes in the level of oil prices and allows one to incorporate an extraneous indicator of oil price uncertainty such as realized volatility that greatly improves the precision of the estimated uncertainty series the estimation results show that an oil price uncertainty shock has negative effects on world industrial production all else equal for example it is shown that a doubling of oil price volatility is associated with a cumulative decline as high as 0 3 percentage points in world industrial production

the presidency regionalism and distributive politics in south korea although whether there is political influence on distributive policies is now indisputable important debates have emerged about how politics distorts distributive policy outcomes in this article

nowcasting the real time informational content of macroeconomic data abstract a formal method is developed for evaluating the marginal impact that intra monthly data releases have on current quarter forecasts nowcasts of real gross domestic product gdp growth the method can track the real time flow of the type of information monitored by central banks because it can handle large data sets with staggered data release dates each time new data are released the nowcasts are updated on the basis of progressively larger data sets that reflecting the unsynchronized data release dates have a jagged edge across the most recent months

index investment and financialization of commodities the authors found that concurrent with the rapidly growing index investment in commodity markets since the early 2000s prices of non energy commodity futures in the united states have become incr

volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns implications for portfolio management abstract in this article we take a recent generalized var garch approach to examine the extent of volatility transmission between oil and stock markets in europe and the united states at the sector level the empirical model is advantageous in that it typically allows simultaneous shock transmission in the conditional returns and volatilities insofar as volatility transmission across oil and stock sector markets is a crucial element for portfolio designs and risk management we also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for oil stock portfolio holdings with respect to the results our findings point to the existence of significant volatility spillover between oil and sector stock returns however the spillover is usually unidirectional from oil markets to stock markets in europe but bidirectional in the united states our back testing procedures finally suggest that taking the cross market volatility spillovers estimated from the var garch models often leads to diversification benefits and hedging effectiveness better than those of commonly used multivariate volatility models such as the ccc garch of bollerslev 1990 the diagonal bekk garch of engle and kroner 1995 and the dcc garch of engle 2002

improving real time estimates of output and inflation gaps with multiple vintage models real time estimates of output gaps and inflation gaps differ from the values that are obtained using data available long after the event part of the problem is that the data on which the real time estimates are based is subsequently revised we show that vector autoregressive models of data vintages provide forecasts of post revision values of future observations and of already released observations capable of improving estimates of output and inflation gaps in real time our findings indicate that annual revisions to output and inflation data are in part predictable based on their past vintages this article has online supplementary materials

noncausality and the commodity currency hypothesis abstract this paper provides new evidence on the role of exchange rates in forecasting commodity prices consistent with previous studies we find that commodity currencies hold out of sample predictive power for commodity prices when using standard linear predictive regressions after we reconsider the evidence using noncausal autoregressions which provide a better fit to the data and are able to accommodate the effects of nonlinearities and omitted variables the predictive power of exchange rates disappears

measuring economies of diversification a frontier approach the purpose of this article is to improve the statistical analysis of multiproduct firm behavior specifically we are interested in modeling and estimating multiproduct technology focusing on size and product line variation thus we offer a new empirical technique that can be used to directly analyze issues such as subadditivity expansion path subadditivity economies of scope and economies of diversification although applied papers employ a wide variety of theoretical multiproduct cost concepts previous work uses nonfrontier estimation techniques we show how to introduce frontier approaches to multiproduct cost analysis that can be applied to any of these concepts and improve the statistical analysis specifically we introduce an empirical test using frontier techniques that allows for direct measures of economies of diversification at the firm specific level

realized volatility transmission the role of jumps and leverage effects this paper is the first to employ a multivariate extension of the lhar cj model for realized volatility of corsi and reno 2012 considering continuous and jump volatility components and leverage effects the model is applied to financial s p 500 commodity wti crude oil and forex us eur intraday futures data and allows new insights in the transmission mechanisms among these markets besides significant leverage effects we find that the jump components of all considered assets do not contain incremental information for the one step ahead realized volatility the volatility of s p 500 and us eur exchange rate futures exhibits significant spillovers to the realized volatility of wti moreover decreasing equity prices appear to increase volatility in other markets while strengthening of the us seems to calm down the crude oil market

senate representation and coalition building in distributive politics p7 vhe senate s equal representation of states shapes coalition building in distributive politics the great variation in state population means that some states have far greater need for federal fttnds than others but all senators have equal voting weight as a result even though all senators votes are of equal value to the coalition builder they are not of equal prwice coalition builders can include benefits for small states at considerably less expense to program budgets than comparable benefits for more populous states building on formal models of coalition building two hypotheses are developed and tested first coalition builders will seek out less costly members to build supportive coalitions efficiently second the final outcomes of distributive policy will more closely reflect the preferences of small state senators than large state senators the hypotheses are tested by examining the 1991 and 1997 98 reauthorizations of federal surface transportation programs the findings support both hypotheses

computing economies of vertical integration economies of scope and economies of scale using partial frontier nonparametric methods abstract so far in the nonparametric literature only full frontier nonparametric methods have been applied to search for economies of scope and scale particularly the data envelopment analysis method dea however these methods present some drawbacks that might lead to biased results this paper proposes a methodology based on more robust partial frontier nonparametric methods to look for scope and scale economies through this methodology it is possible to assess the robustness of these economies and in particular to assess the influence that extreme data or outliers might have on them the influence of the imposition of convexity on the production set of firms was also investigated this methodology was applied to the water utilities that operated in portugal between 2002 and 2008 there is evidence of economies of vertical integration and economies of scale in drinking water supply utilities and in water and wastewater utilities operating mainly in the retail segment economies of scale were found in water and wastewater utilities operating exclusively in the wholesale and in some of these utilities diseconomies of scope were also found the proposed methodology also allowed us to conclude that the existence of some smaller utilities makes the minimum optimal scales go down

short term gdp forecasting with a mixed frequency dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility in this article we develop a mixed frequency dynamic factor model in which the disturbances of both the latent common factor and of the idiosyncratic components have time varying stochastic volatilities we use the model to investigate business cycle dynamics in the euro area and present three sets of empirical results first we evaluate the impact of macroeconomic releases on point and density forecast accuracy and on the width of forecast intervals second we show how our setup allows to make a probabilistic assessment of the contribution of releases to forecast revisions third we examine point and density out of sample forecast accuracy we find that introducing stochastic volatility in the model contributes to an improvement in both point and density forecast accuracy supplementary materials for this article are available online

oil shocks and external balances abstract we provide estimates of the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of oil exporters and oil importers external balances including the oil trade balance the non oil trade balance the current account capital gains and changes in net foreign assets nfa first we show that the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account which depending on the source of the shock can be large depends critically on the response of the non oil trade balance our results provide evidence of an intermediate degree of international financial integration second we document the presence of large and systematic valuation effects in response to these shocks valuation effects overall tend to cushion the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the nfa positions of oil exporters and oil importers third we quantify the overall importance of global business cycle demand shocks as well as oil market specific demand and supply shocks for external balances

understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks this paper oers a plausible explanation for the close link between oil prices and aggregate macroeconomic performance in the 1970s although this link has been well documented in the empirical literature standard economic models are not able to replicate this link when actual oil prices are used to simulate the models in particular standard models cannot explain the depth of the recession in 1974 75 and the strong revival in 1976 78 based on the oil price movements in that period this paper argues that a missing multiplier accelerator mechanism from standard models may hold the key

why don t oil shocks cause inflation evidence from disaggregate inflation data this paper uses disaggregate u s inflation data to evaluate explanations for the breakdown of the relationship between oil price shocks and consumer price inflation a data set with measures of inflation energy intensity labor intensity and sensitivity to monetary policy is constructed for 97 sectors that make up core cpi inflation a comparison of the 1973 85 and 1986 2006 time periods reveals that substitution away from energy use in production and monetary policy were both important with approximately two thirds of the change in response of inflation to oil shocks being due to reduced energy usage and one third to monetary policy we find no evidence that other factors such as changes in wage rigidities or changes in the persistence of oil shocks played a role

on the vote purchasing behavior of incumbent governments a couple of months before the swedish election in 1998 the incumbent government distributed 2 3 billion sek to 42 out of 115 applying municipalities this was the first wave of a four year long grant program intended to support local investment programs aimed at an ecological sustainable development this temporary grant program differs from traditional intergovernmental grants in several aspects most importantly in the sovereign decision making power given to the incumbent central government in this paper we investigate whether there were any tactical motives behind the distribution of these grants we find support for the hypothesis that the incumbent government used the grant program under study in order to win votes in particular we find strong support for the lindbeck weibull dixit londregan model in which parties distribute transfers to regions where there are many swing voters this result is statistically as well as economically significant we do however not find any support for the model that predicts that the incumbent government transfer money to its own supporters

estimating economies of scope using profit function a dual approach of the normalized quadratic profit function abstract theoretical relationships between parameters of the normalized quadratic profit and cost functions are derived allowing for economies of scope to be calculated using profit function estimates an empirical example confirms that the cost function is recovered using the estimated profit function

what central bankers need to know about forecasting oil prices central banks routinely use short horizon forecasts of the quarterly price of oil in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook we address a number of econometric issues specific to the construction of quarterly oil price forecasts in the united states and abroad we show that quarterly forecasts of the real price of oil from suitably designed vector autoregressive models estimated on monthly data generate the most accurate real time forecasts overall among a wide range of methods including quarterly averages of forecasts based on monthly oil futures prices no change forecasts and forecasts based on regression models estimated on quarterly data

world steel production a new monthly indicator of global real economic activity this paper proposes world steel production as an indicator of global real economic activity world steel production data is published with only a one month delay thereby providing timely information for world real gdp forecasters we find that world steel production and lutz kilian s 2009 index of global real economic activity generate large gains in forecasting world real gdp relative to an autoregressive benchmark a forecast combination of world steel production kilian s 2009 index of global real economic activity and an index of the industrial production of oecd countries plus six non oecd emerging economies produces significant gains in forecasting world real gdp relative to an autoregressive benchmark

what do we learn from the price of crude oil futures summary despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the mean squared prediction error sense than no change forecasts this result is driven by the variability of the futures price about the spot price as captured by the oil futures spread this variability can be explained by the marginal convenience yield of oil inventories using a two country multi period general equilibrium model of the spot and futures markets for crude oil we show that increased uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls under plausible assumptions causes the spread to decline increased uncertainty also causes precautionary demand for oil to increase resulting in an immediate increase in the real spot price thus the negative of the oil futures spread may be viewed as an indicator of fluctuations in the price of crude oil driven by precautionary demand an empirical analysis of this indicator provides evidence of how shifts in the uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls affect the real spot price of crude oil copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

oil prices and the terms of trade abstract the combination of substantial terms of trade variability and unstable correlation patterns of trade prices with output and trade volumes has led some to suggest a break in the link between trade volumes and prices we find that oil accounts for much of the variation in the terms of trade over the last twenty five years and its quantitative role varies significantly over time and since our dynamic general equilibrium model predicts that the economy responds differently to oil supply shocks than to other shocks changes in their relative importance helps to account for the unstable correlations in the data

dynamics of oil price precious metal prices and exchange rate this study examines the co movements and information transmission among the spot prices of four precious metals gold silver platinum and palladium oil price and the us dollar euro exchange rate we find evidence of a weak long run equilibrium relationship but strong feedbacks in the short run the spot precious metal markets respond significantly but temporarily to a shock in any of the prices of the other metal prices and the exchange rate furthermore we discover some evidence of market overreactions in the palladium and platinum cases as well as in the exchange rate market in conclusion whether there are overreactions and re adjustments or not investors may diversify at least a portion of the risk away by investing in precious metals oil and the euro policy implications are provided

constitutional rules and fiscal policy outcomes we investigate the effect of electoral rules and forms of government on fiscal policy outcomes in a large sample of democracies we rely on different estimation methods to address prospective problems of statistical inference due to non random selection of these constitutional rules the findings are consistent with our theoretical priors presidential regimes induce smaller governments than parliamentary democracies while majoritarian elections lead to smaller governments and smaller welfare programs than proportional elections

reapportionment and redistribution consequences of electoral reform in japan does reapportionment in a legislature affect policy outcomes we examine this question from a comparative perspective by focusing on reapportionment associated with the electoral reform in japan first we show that the reform of 1994 resulted in an unprecedented degree of equalization in legislative representation second using municipal level data we present evidence that municipalities in overrepresented districts received significantly more subsidies per capita as compared to those in underrepresented districts in both prereform and postreform years third by examining the relationship between the change in the number of seats per capita and the change in the amount of subsidies per capita at the municipal level we show that the equalization in voting strength resulted in an equalization of total transfers per person

balanced budget redistribution as the outcome of political competition this paper models balanced budget redistribution between socio economic groups as the outcome of electoral competition between two political parties equilibrium is unique in the present model and a sufficient condition for existence is given requiring that there be enough stochastic heterogeneity with respect to party preferences in the electorate the validity of hotelling s principle of minimum differentiation and of director s law are examined under alternative hypotheses concerning administrative costs of redistributions and voter s possibilities both of abstaining from voting and of becoming campaign activists for one of the parties the policy strategy of expected plurality maximization is contrasted with the strategy of maximizing the probability of gaining a plurality incomes are fixed and known so lump sum taxation is feasible however constraints on tax transfer differentiation between individuals are permitted in the analysis

distributive politics and the allocation of federal grants understanding the dynamics of policy distribution requires an appreciation of federal grant programs that have achieved a prominent place in nearly all areas of domestic policy the theoretical literature on distributive politics however focuses almost exclusively on a centralized top down view of policy distribution by examining the role of presidents legislators and bureaucrats scholars have ignored participants who have become key actors in the distribution of federal expenditures the recipient jurisdictions this analysis of the allocation patterns under six federal programs shows that local governments exert important influences on the distribution of federal grants and that the distributional patterns and their determinants vary over time the analysis also points out the importance of disaggregation by focusing on programs and recipient jurisdictions as opposed to total federal expenditures and regions states or congressional districts

constitutions and economic policy at the rare moments in history when a nation debates constitutional reform the key issues often concern how the reforms might affect economic policy and economic performance for example italy abandoned a system of pure proportional representation where legislators were elected according to the proportions of the popular national vote received by their parties and moved toward including ingredients of plurality rule where legislators are elected in each district according to who receives the highest number of votes key italian political leaders are now considering proposals to introduce elements of presidentialism where the head of government is elected by direct popular vote rather than the current parliamentary regime a common argument in italy was that the electoral reform would help stifle political corruption and reduce the propensity of italian governments to run budget deficits in the 1990s constitutional reforms have been debated and implemented in a number of other countries too for instance new zealand moved away from a pure system of plurality rule in single member districts to a system mixing elements of proportional representation japan also renounced its special form of plurality rule the so called single nontransferable vote in favor of a system that mixes elements of proportional and plurality representation similar proposals have been debated in the united kingdom in latin america questions have been raised as to whether the poor and volatile economic performance of many countries can be traced to their presidential form of government

forecasting oil prices high frequency financial data are indeed useful abstract the paper examines the importance of combining high frequency financial information along with the oil market fundamentals in order to gain incremental forecasting accuracy for oil prices inspired by french et al 1987 and bollerslev et al 1988 who maintain that future asset returns are also influenced by past volatility we use daily volatilities and returns from financial and commodity markets to generate real out of sample forecasts for the monthly oil futures prices our results convincingly show that although the oil market fundamentals are useful for long run forecasting horizons the combination of the latter with high frequency financial data significantly improve oil price forecasts by reducing the rmse of the no change forecast by approximately 68 results are even more impressive during the oil price collapse period of 2014 15 these findings suggest that we cannot ignore the information extracted from the financial markets when forecasting oil prices our results are both statistically and economically significant as suggested by several robustness tests

quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil the role of global oil inventories abstract one of the central questions of policy interest in recent years has been how many dollars of the inflation adjusted price of oil must be attributed to speculative demand for oil stocks at each point in time we develop statistical tools that allow us to address this question and we use these tools to explore how the use of two alternative proxies for global crude oil inventories affects the empirical evidence for speculation notwithstanding some differences overall these inventory proxies yield similar results while there is evidence of speculative demand raising the price in mid 2008 by between 5 and 14 dollars depending on the inventory specification there is no evidence of speculative demand pressures between early 2003 and early 2008 as a result current policy efforts aimed at tightening the regulation of oil derivatives markets cannot be expected to lower the real price of oil in the physical market we also provide evidence that the libyan crisis in 2011 shifted expectations in oil markets resulting in a price increase of between 3 and 13 dollars depending on the inventory specification with regard to tensions with iran in 2012 the implied price premium ranges from 0 to 9 dollars

monetary policy rules based on real time data this paper examines the magnitude of informational problems associated with the implementation and interpretation of simple monetary policy rules using taylor s rule as an example i demonstrate that real time policy recommendations differ considerably from those obtained with ex post revised data further estimated policy reaction functions based on ex post revised data provide misleading descriptions of historical policy and obscure the behavior suggested by information available to the federal reserve in real time these results indicate that reliance on the information actually available to policy makers in real time is essential for the analysis of monetary policy rules

modeling volatility and correlations between emerging market stock prices and the prices of copper oil and wheat abstract increased financial integration between countries and the financialization of commodity markets are providing investors with new ways to diversify their investment portfolios this paper uses varma agarch and dcc agarch models to model volatilities and conditional correlations between emerging market stock prices copper prices oil prices and wheat prices the dynamic conditional correlation model is found to fit the data the best and used to generate dynamic conditional correlations hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights emerging market stock prices and oil prices display leverage effects where negative residuals tend to increase the variance conditional volatility more than positive ones correlations between these assets increased considerably after 2008 and have yet to return to their pre 2008 values on average oil provides the cheapest hedge for emerging market stock prices while copper is the most expensive but given the variability in the hedge ratios one should probably not put too much emphasis on average hedge ratios

the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour a regime switching approach abstract in this paper we develop a two regime markov switching egarch model introduced by henry henry o 2009 regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short term interest rates journal of banking and finance 33 405 414 to examine the relationship between crude oil shocks and stock markets an application to stock markets of uk france and japan over the sample period january 1989 to december 2007 illustrates plausible results we detect two episodes of series behaviour one relative to low mean high variance regime and the other to high mean low variance regime furthermore there is evidence that common recessions coincide with the low mean high variance regime in addition we allow both real stock returns and probability of transitions from one regime to another to depend on the net oil price increase variable the findings show that rises in oil price has a significant role in determining both the volatility of stock returns and the probability of transition across regimes

estimating and forecasting the real prices of crude oil a data rich model using a dynamic model averaging dma approach given that oil price fluctuations have been of great interest for macroeconomics in the recent years due to its important implications for future inflation economic growth and policy making the aim of this paper is to estimate and forecast west texas intermediate wti crude oil prices using a large monthly dataset that covers the period from march 1983 to december 2011 to achieve this aim forecasting with factor models offers a usual approach that utilizes large datasets however a forecasting model which simply includes all factors in state space equation and does not allow for time varying may be not suitable with a highly volatile market such as oil market to overcome these limitations an approach that accounts both for parameter and model uncertainty is employed in particular this study uses the dynamic model averaging dma approach suggested by koop and korobilis 2012 the key element of the dma approach is that it allows both for model and parameter to vary at each point of time by doing so the dma is robust to structural breaks empirical findings show that dma approach outperforms any other alternative model used in the forecasting exercise results also show that there is model but not parameter variation in this oil price forecasting exercise finally the findings suggest that the dma approach provides a better proxy of expected spot prices than future prices

macroeconomic forecasting with mixed frequency data forecasting output growth in the united states many macroeconomic series such as u s real output growth are sampled quarterly although potentially useful predictors are often observed at a higher frequency we look at whether a mixed data frequency sampling midas approach can improve forecasts of output growth the midas specification used in the comparison uses a novel way of including an autoregressive term we find that the use of monthly data on the current quarter leads to significant improvement in forecasting current and next quarter output growth and that midas is an effective way to exploit monthly data compared with alternative methods

the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates revisiting theory and evidence abstract this paper reviews existing theoretical and empirical research on the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates we start with theoretical transmission channels which point to bi directional causality empirical research is classified and shows that the evidence varies substantially depending on sample country choice and empirical method yet there are some common patterns i strong links between exchange rates and oil prices are frequently observed over the long run and ii either exchange rates or oil prices are a potentially useful predictor of the other variable in the short run but the effects are strongly time varying we also identify some important avenues for future research

are there gains from pooling real time oil price forecasts the answer as to whether there are gains from pooling real time oil price forecasts depends on the objective the approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model and using it for all horizons up to two years

realized volatility transmission between crude oil and equity futures markets a multivariate har approach this paper differs from extant literature because it studies volatility co movements with a multivariate orthogonalized har model a flexible specification for the time series of realized volatility which is able to identify short mid and long term spillover effects we examine volatility transmission mechanisms using high frequency data of the stock index futures on s p 500 nikkei 225 ftse 100 and the futures on the west texas intermediate crude oil during the period from september 2002 to september 2012 considering the full sample the short term volatility of the equity futures contains information about future oil volatility incremental to the information inherent in the time series of oil volatility on the other hand weekly and monthly volatilities do not exhibit a significant spillover effect breaking the whole sample into three subsamples no significant granger causalities are observed in the pre crisis period while in the crisis time and its aftermath we document that the us and uk equity market volatilities to granger cause the oil futures volatility which itself leads the japanese market in terms of magnitude we observe an increase in the short term volatility spillover over time studying the residuals of the har transmission models within a ccc dcc garch framework reveals increasing instantaneous correlation between the energy and equity volatilities in the course of time

dynamic spillovers of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty this study examines the dynamic relationship between changes in oil prices and the economic policy uncertainty index for a sample of both net oil exporting and net oil importing countries over the period 1997 01 2013 06 to achieve that an extension of the diebold and yilmaz 2009 2012 dynamic spillover index based on structural decomposition is employed the results reveal that economic policy uncertainty oil price shocks responds negatively to aggregate demand oil price shocks economic policy uncertainty shocks furthermore during the great recession of 2007 2009 total spillovers increase considerably reaching unprecedented heights moreover in net terms economic policy uncertainty becomes the dominant transmitter of shocks between 1997 and 2009 while in the post 2009 period there is a significant role for supply side and oil specific demand shocks as net transmitters of spillover effects these results are important for policy makers as well as investors interested in the oil market

global economic activity indexes revisited abstract this study contributes to the debate about two measures of global real economic activity real shipping costs and world industrial production we show that once both measures are transformed in the same way both can predict commodity prices moreover we demonstrate that real shipping costs lead world industrial production

oil and the macroeconomy since the 1970s economists have long been intrigued by empirical evidence that suggests that oil price shocks may be closely related to macroeconomic performance this interest dates back to the 1970s the 1970s were a period of growing dependence on imported oil unprecedented disruptions in the global oil market and poor macroeconomic performance in the united states thus it was natural to suspect a causal relationship from oil prices to u s macroeconomic aggregates since then a large body of work has accumulated that purports to establish this link on theoretical grounds and to provide empirical evidence in its support we do not attempt a comprehensive survey of this literature but rather provide an idiosyncratic synthesis of what we view as the key issues in this debate and the insights gained over the last 30 years the timing seems right for such an account although the experience of the 1970s continues to play an important role in discussions of the link between oil and the macroeconomy there have been a number of new oil price shocks since the 1970s notably the 1986 collapse of oil prices and the 2000 boom in oil prices as well as the oil price increases associated with the 1990 1991 gulf war and the 2003 iraq war given this richer case history we are arguably in a better position than two decades ago to distinguish the idiosyncratic features of each oil crisis from the systematic effects increases in oil prices have been held responsible for recessions periods of excessive inflation reduced productivity and lower economic growth in this paper we review the arguments supporting such views first we highlight some of the conceptual difficulties in assigning a central role to oil price shocks in explaining

forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures abstract in oil markets the crack spread refers to the crude product price relationship refiners are major participants in oil markets and they are primarily exposed to the crack spread in other words refiner activity is substantially driven by the objective of protecting the crack spread moreover oil consumers are active participants in the oil hedging market and they are frequently exposed to the crack spread from another perspective hedge funds are heavily using crack spread to speculate in oil markets based on the high volume of crack spread futures trading in oil markets the question we want to raise is whether the crack spread futures can be a good predictor of oil price movements we investigated first whether there is a causal relationship between the crack spread futures and the spot oil markets in a vector error correction framework we found the causal impact of crack spread futures on spot oil market both in the long and the short run after april 2003 where we detected a structural break in the model to examine the forecasting performance we use the random walk model rwm as a benchmark and we also evaluate the forecasting power of crack spread futures against the crude oil futures the results showed that a both the crack spread futures and the crude oil futures outperformed the rwm and b the crack spread futures are almost as good as the crude oil futures in predicting the movements in spot oil markets

economies of diversification in the banking industry abstract this paper defines a new measure economies of diversification to examine the cost effect of product line expansion this measure is a special case of expansion path subadditivity and contains economies of scope as a special case a nonparametric frontier technique which isolates the effects of inefficiency and scale is used to measure economies of diversification applied to a set of 468 u s depository institutions operating in 1984 we find slight diseconomies of diversification diseconomies of diversification and inefficiency due to the overutilization of resources are found to be more important determinants of bank costs than is the failure to operate at optimal scale

ideology tactics and efficiency in redistributive politics we model the electoral politics of redistribution when voters and parties care about inequality in addition to their private concerns for consumption and votes respectively ideological concerns about income redistribution lead each party to adopt a general proportional income tax adjusted to appeal to the ideological leanings of high clout groups with disproportionately many swing voters which the parties also ply with pork barrel projects our results relate to director s law which says that redistributive politics favors middle classes at the expense of both rich and poor

are daily financial data useful for forecasting gdp evidence from mexico this article evaluates the use of financial data sampled at high frequencies to improve short term forecasts of quarterly gdp for mexico the model uses both quarterly and daily sampling frequencies while remaining parsimonious in particular the mixed data sampling midas regression model is employed to deal with the multi frequency problem to preserve parsimony factor analysis and forecast combination techniques are used to summarize the information contained in a data set containing 392 daily financial series our findings suggest that the midas model incorporating daily financial data leads to improvements in quarterly forecasts of gdp growth over traditional models that either rely only on quarterly macroeconomic data or average daily frequency data the evidence suggests that this methodology improves the forecasts for the mexican gdp notwithstanding its higher volatility relative to that of developed countries furthermore we explore the ability of the midas model to provide forecast updates for gdp growth nowcasting

commodity prices interest rates and the dollar this paper sheds light on recent fluctuations in commodity prices we investigate whether a decline in real interest rates and the us dollar contributes to higher commodity prices and whether commodity prices display overshooting behavior in response to changes in real interest rates we analyze the behavior of real prices of crude oil food metals and industrial raw materials the analysis is based on structural var models estimated on quarterly data over the period 1990q1 2007q4 our results suggest that commodity prices increase significantly in response to reductions in real interest rates moreover oil prices and prices of industrial raw materials tend to display overshooting behavior in response to such interest rate changes the evidence also suggests that a weaker dollar leads to higher commodity prices shocks to interest rates and the dollar are found to account for substantial shares of fluctuations in commodity prices

modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities it is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply one of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic activity

evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts the doe s energy price forecasts abstract the united states department of energy s doe quarterly price forecasts for energy commodities are examined to determine the incremental information provided at the one through four quarter forecast horizons a direct test for determining information content at alternative forecast horizons developed by vuchelen and gutierrez vuchelen j and gutierrez m i a direct test of the information content of the oecd growth forecasts international journal of forecasting 21 2005 103 117 is used the results suggest that the doe s price forecasts for crude oil gasoline and diesel fuel do indeed provide incremental information out to three quarters ahead while natural gas and electricity forecasts are informative out to the four quarter horizon in contrast the doe s coal price forecasts at two three and four quarters ahead provide no incremental information beyond that provided for the one quarter horizon recommendations of how to use these results for making forecast adjustments is also provided

monetary policy response to oil price shocks how should monetary authorities react to an oil price shock this paper shows that in a noncompetitive economy policies that perfectly stabilize prices entail large welfare costs hence explaining the reluctance of policymakers to enforce them the policy trade off is nontrivial because oil energy is an input to both production and consumption as welfare maximizing policies are hard to implement and communicate i derive a simple interest rate rule that depends only on observables but mimics the optimal plan in all dimensions the optimal rule is hard on core inflation but accommodates oil price changes

real time fiscal forecasting using mixed frequency data the sovereign debt crisis has increased the importance of monitoring budgetary execution we employ real time data using a mixed data sampling midas methodology to demonstrate how budgetary slippages can be detected early on we show that in spite of using real time data the year end forecast errors diminish significantly when incorporating intra annual information our results show the benefits of forecasting aggregates via subcomponents in this case total government revenue and expenditure our methodology could significantly improve fiscal surveillance and could therefore be an important part of the european commission s model toolkit

distributive politics in a multiparty system the conditional cash transfer program in turkey what are the dynamics of distributive politics in a setting of multiparty competition existing studies on the allocation of resources across multiple electoral districts focus primarily on a setting of two party competition and consider only the core versus swing district hypotheses this framework does not correspond to the actual electoral setting in many countries and ignores valuable information furnished by a context of multiparty competition compared with two party elections multiparty elections provide more information about the underlying distribution of the ideological preferences of voters in a district this information could be utilized by the incumbent party to maximize electoral returns in this article i argue that a setting of multiparty competition presents incentives to the incumbent party to channel disproportionately more resources to districts with an ideologically close challenger systematic evidence from the conditional cash transfer program spending in 878 districts of turkey

forecasting oil price realized volatility using information channels from other asset classes motivated from ross 1989 who maintains that asset volatilities are synonymous to the information flow we claim that cross market volatility transmission effects are synonymous to cross market information flows or information channels from one market to another based on this assertion we assess whether cross market volatility flows contain important information that can improve the accuracy of oil price realized volatility forecasting we concentrate on realized volatilities derived from the intra day prices of the brent crude oil and four different asset classes stocks forex commodities and macro which represent the different information channels by which oil price volatility is impacted from we employ a har framework and estimate forecasts for 1 day to 66 days ahead our findings provide strong evidence that the use of the different information channels enhances the predictive accuracy of oil price realized volatility at all forecasting horizons numerous forecasting evaluation tests and alternative model specifications confirm the robustness of our results

do high frequency stock market data help forecast crude oil prices evidence from the midas models abstract extensive studies have used stock market information to forecast crude oil prices and stock market can more easily derive high frequency data than crude oil market due to no revisions which raises a question that whether high frequency stock market data can improve the forecast performance of crude oil prices therefore this paper employs the midas model and the high frequency data of four stock market indices to forecast wti and brent crude oil prices at lower frequency the results indicate that the high frequency stock market indices have certain advantage over the lower frequency data in forecasting monthly crude oil prices and the midas model using high frequency data proves superior to the ordinary model

forecasting the real prices of crude oil using forecast combinations over time varying parameter models abstract in this paper we forecast real prices of crude oil using real time forecast combinations over time varying parameter tvp models with single predictor we reveal the significant predictability at all horizons up to 24 months the mean squared predictive error reduction over the benchmark of no change forecast is as high as 17 and the directional accuracy as high as 0 645 a combination with tvp models is found to generate more accurate forecasts than the same combination with constant coefficient models because the forecast errors of individual tvp models are correlated at a lower degree we also evaluate the forecasting performance in the framework of density forecasting our results indicate that the benchmark model can be significantly outperformed by forecast combination at the horizons longer than 3 months

real time forecast combinations for the oil price baumeister and kilian 2015 combine forecasts from six empirical models to predict real oil prices in this paper we broadly reproduce their main economic findings employing their preferred measures of the real oil price and other real time variables mindful of the importance of brent crude oil as a global price benchmark we extend consideration to the north sea based measure and update the evaluation sample to 2017 12 we model the oil price futures curve usinga factor based nelson siegel specification estimated in real time to fill in missing values for oil price futures in the raw data we find that the combined forecasts for brent are as effective as for other oil price measures the extended sample using the oil price measures adopted by baumeister and kilian 2015 yields similar results to those reported in their paper and the futures based model improves forecast accuracy at longer horizons

real time forecasting of inflation and output growth with autoregressive models in the presence of data revisions we examine how the accuracy of real time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on lightly revised data instead of using data from the latest available vintage the benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values empirically we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2 4 when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models and of 8 with multivariate models we show that multiple vintage models which explicitly model data revisions require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts copyright 2012 john wiley sons ltd

dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices abstract over the past decade the sharp increases in the prices of oil and agricultural commodities have raised serious concerns about the heightened volatility of these markets and the possible negative interactions between them this article deals with the dynamic return and volatility spillovers across international energy and cereal commodity markets it also examines the impacts of three types of opec news announcements on the volatility spillovers and persistence in these markets for this purpose we make use of the var bekk garch and var dcc garch models for the daily spot prices of eight major commodities including wti oil europe brent oil gasoline heating oil barley corn sorghum and wheat our results provide evidence of significant linkages between these energy and cereal markets moreover the opec news announcements are found to exert influence on the oil markets as well as on the oil cereal relationships finally we show that the persistence of volatility decreases increases for the crude oil and heating oil gasoline returns after accounting for the opec announcements in these multivariate garch models however the results are more mixed for the cereal markets overall our results can be used to improve the risk adjusted performance by having more diversified portfolios and also serve to hedge the oil risk more effectively