structural decomposition analysis of sources of decarbonizing economic development in china 1992 2006 abstract to analyze and understand decarbonizing economic development in china this paper undertakes a structural decomposition analysis of the historical change in energy related carbon intensity in china between 1992 and 2006 the results show that the energy related carbon intensity in china decreased by about three fourths between 1992 and 2006 and reduced carbon emissions by about two billion tons the decline in the energy related carbon intensity was mainly caused by changes in production pattern especially changes in energy intensity within each sector between 1992 and 2002 however the most important driving force of carbon intensity from 2002 2006 was not the energy intensity within each sector but the input mix on the other hand changes in demand pattern pushed up the carbon intensity to further decarbonize the economy in the future it is important for china to further enforce policies on shaping the production pattern such as reducing energy intensity and pay more attention to increasing the sustainability of the demand pattern at the same time

entry exit and performance in airline markets abstract data from the airline industry indicate that 1 entry generally is not induced by price levels substantially above the norm 2 entry reduces fares and increases output and exit increases fares and reduces output and 3 incumbents cut price and maintain output in response to entry and survivors increase both price and output in response to exit these findings cast doubt on the ability of entry to prevent or reverse price increases from anticompetitive mergers

evaluating the impact of rising fertilizer prices on crop yields because of tensions on fossil energy and phosphorus markets the rise in fertilizer prices observed during the last decades may continue in the future putting into question production pathways relying heavily on crop intensification to evaluate how in this context economic choices may alter crop yields we first construct different fertilizer price scenarios to 2050 based on an econometric relation with oil and gas prices other possible scenarios such as the continuation of historical trends are also considered the resulting changes in fertilizer price range between 0 8 and 3 6 per year over the 2005 2050 period these scenarios are tested in a global land use model incorporating an endogenous representation of the land fertilizer substitution we find that the supply side response to rising fertilizer prices could lower crop yields in 2050 from 6 to 13 with a corresponding increase in global cropland area ranging between 100 and 240 mha if the demand for food and nonfood products has to be met the sensitivity of these results is tested with regard to assumptions on food consumption change in potential yield and nutrient use efficiency resume d auteur

population aging and carbon emissions in oecd countries accounting for life cycle and cohort effects this paper investigates the relationship between emissions of carbon dioxide and the ongoing process of demographic transition in oecd countries our research is motivated by suggestions in the literature that emission relevant consumption patterns may depend on the position in the life cycle and on the birth cohort to which people belong we augment standard macroeconomic emission regressions by including the age and cohort composition of the population our estimation results on a panel of data for 26 countries spanning the period 1960 2005 suggest that both life cycle and cohort effects belong in a macroeconomic emission function for carbon dioxide we find that shifts in both the age and the cohort composition have contributed to rising carbon emissions in oecd countries

optimal embodied energy abatement strategy for beijing economy based on a three scale input output analysis abstract energy strategies in china s 11th and 12thzfive year plan failed to reduce the total energy consumption and misled the implementation of energy saving measures as they were focused towards the direct energy input as well as formulated based on incomplete energy consumption information therefore an optimal energy abatement strategy built on comprehensive information on overall embodied energy consumption is in urgent need adopting the three scale input output analysis this study uses beijing as a case to depict a specific urban economy s overall energy consumption impacted by local direct energy use domestic and foreign trade the results show that energy embodied in domestic trade dominated beijing s energy consumption while local direct energy is accounting for less than 1 3 of beijing s total embodied energy consumption the quantity of energy embodied in imports far exceeds that embodied in exports making the city a net embodied energy importer and indicating that policies considering direct energy use only will cause energy leakage problem these findings suggest that the current measures such as displacing energy intensive sectors to other regions lead to local reduction but overall rise moreover analysis for five abatement scenarios average intensity share absolute share discriminatory absolute and discriminatory intensity was carried out to figure out the optimal abatement strategy for beijing due to less loss of potential output it is found that intensity share scenario is the optimal one among all the scenarios concerned analysis in this study suggests that each region should break limits of self centered perceptions and multi scale governance for more appropriate responsibility assignment is recommended for overall energy abatement

entry in monopoly market this paper develops new empirical models of market concentration from game theoretic models of entry we construct our models from inequality conditions that describe entrants equilibrium strategies in simultaneous move and sequential move games and use them to study the effects of entry in isolated monopoly markets for new automobiles from estimates of the market size necessary to support one and two dealers we conclude that monopoly dealers do not block the entry of a second dealer we also find that entry does not cause price cost margins to fall by much

geographies of energy transition space place and the low carbon economy this paper makes a case for examining energy transition as a geographical process involving the reconfiguration of current patterns and scales of economic and social activity the paper draws on a seminar series on the geographies of energy transition security climate governance hosted by the authors between 2009 and 2011 which initiated a dialogue between energy studies and the discipline of human geography focussing on the uk government s policy for a low carbon transition the paper provides a conceptual language with which to describe and assess the geographical implications of a transition towards low carbon energy six concepts are introduced and explained location landscape territoriality spatial differentiation scaling and spatial embeddedness examples illustrate how the geographies of a future low carbon economy are not yet determined and that a range of divergent and contending potential geographical futures are in play more attention to the spaces and places that transition to a low carbon economy will produce can help better understand what living in a low carbon economy will be like it also provides a way to help evaluate the choices and pathways available

urban energy transition in china insights from trends socioeconomic drivers and environmental impacts of beijing abstract the coal dominated energy structure has not only fueled china s rapid economic development but also brought great pressure on china promoting energy transition is among the great challenges for china as one of the most developed megacities in china beijing promotes energy transition intensively in this study we explored the trends socioeconomic drivers and environmental impacts of the energy transition process in beijing during the decades we found that beijing s energy transition has gone through four typical stages after a parallel growth between the economy and coal dominated energy consumption at beginning the growth rate of energy consumption has gradually slowed down since 1996 between 2000 and 2007 the energy structure became relatively balanced and diversified driven by the changes of energy intensity energy structure and final demand composition along with the economic structure s shift from heavy manufacturing to service thereafter economic development was seriously decoupled from direct energy consumption and the de coal trend had made remarkable achievements so2 and nox emissions have declined significantly since 2007 diversified energy structure based on the de coal trend cleaner energy and economic restructuring promotes energy transition meanwhile the feasibility of implementation also should be considered in other cities energy transition process in china

towards a comprehensive policy for electricity from renewable energy an approach for policy design abstract energy policy design in europe is a complex issue involving multiple levels of governance and heavily influenced by institutional contexts however policy design in europe and model based analysis even more so is arguably shaped by the neo classical school of thought there is a need to provide a structured approach that would facilitate the incorporating of institutional contexts into renewable energy sources for electricity res e policy design and analysis this paper presents a formal approach to res e policy design based on design theory the institutional analysis and development iad framework and agent based modelling and simulation given a certain frame of analysis we propose that it is theoretically possible to identify the complete policy design space a set of design elements crucially this aspect potentially opens up to the policy analyst new avenues for intervention and allows her systematically explore given a range of uncertainties which element s of intervention is are the most vital to achieve the goals of the community its empirical applicability is demonstrated by representing and differentiating between six res e schemes from western europe in terms of the design elements a model based illustration demonstrates the value of this approach to quantitatively analyse the impact of design elements

economic effects of renewable energy expansion a model based analysis for germany abstract the increasing utilization of renewable energy sources res is a major energy policy strategy in many countries worldwide germany is a forerunner in the deployment of res and has ambitious goals for the future the support and use of renewables affects the economy it creates business opportunities in sectors producing renewable energy facilities but comes with costs related to supporting its deployment this paper analyses and quantifies the net balance of economic effects associated with renewable energy deployment in germany until 2030 to this end we use a novel model the sectoral energy economic econometric model this is an econometric multi country model which for germany contains a detailed representation of industries including 14 renewable energy technology sectors our results show that renewable energy expansion can be achieved without compromising growth or employment the analysis reveals a positive net effect on economic growth in germany net employment effects are small but also positive their size depends strongly on labour market conditions and policies results at the industry level indicate the size and direction of the need for restructuring across the sectors of the germany economy

the driving forces of china s energy use from 1992 to 2010 an empirical study of input output and structural decomposition analysis abstract the energy consumption in china has accelerated since the early 2000s and china became the largest energy consumer in the world by 2010 to examine the driving forces of china s energy use this paper conducts a structural decomposition analysis based on hybrid input output tables in addition we describe the framework of china s energy system by using two energy flow charts the results show that china s current energy use is investment led demand between 1992 and 2007 the three main final demand categories gross fixed capital formation household consumption and exports contributed approximately one third each to the changes of total energy use in china between 2007 and 2010 however three quarters of energy consumption changes came from investment activity only technological improvement saved approximately five percent of the total energy use annually during the periods of 1992 1997 1997 2002 and 2007 2010 in the period of 2002 2007 however its contribution dropped to only three percent p a due to the rise of the indirect energy requirement coefficient in the construction sector these results suggest that adjusting the final demand structure and improving energy efficiency further will meet china s energy challenges in the future

from nuclear phase out to renewable energies in the swiss electricity market abstract liberalisation and the ever larger share of variable renewable energies vres e g photovoltaic pv and wind energy affect security of supply sos we develop a system dynamics model to analyse the impact of vres on the investment decision process and to understand how sos is affected we focus on the swiss electricity market which is currently undergoing a liberalisation process and simultaneously faces the encouragement of vres and a nuclear phase out our results show that nuclear production is replaced mainly by pv and imports the country becomes a net importer this evolution points to a problem of capacity adequacy the resulting price rise together with the subsidies needed to support vres lead to a rise in tariffs in the presence of a high share of hydro the de rated margin may give a misleading picture of the capacity adequacy we thus propose a new metric the annual energy margin which considers the energy available from all sources while acknowledging that hydro storage can function as a battery this measure shows a much less reassuring picture of the country s capacity adequacy

study on decoupling analysis between energy consumption and economic growth in liaoning province abstract since 1978 liaoning province has experienced spectacular economic growth which has led to more energy consumption the purpose of this paper is to explore the decoupling status between energy consumption and economic growth in liaoning province firstly the generalized lmdi method is used to explore the driving forces governing production energy consumption in liaoning province then the combination of tapio decoupling indicator and generalized lmdi method is utilized to study what the decoupling status occurred in liaoning province and why the decoupling status appeared during the study period only four decoupling status occurred expansive negative decoupling expansive coupling weak decoupling and strong decoupling the energy intensity decoupling effect played a positive role in the appearance of decoupling however the economic structure decoupling effect and investment decoupling effect played a negative role in the appearance of decoupling over the study period the energy structure decoupling effect and labour decoupling effect played a relative small role in the appearance of decoupling

what drive the changes in china s energy consumption and intensity during 12th five year plan period abstract during the 12th five year plan period 2011 2015 the chinese government has released a series of energy conservation plans to launch and deepen the transition in the energy use particularly the dual control of the energy consumption and energy intensity was firstly emphasized this paper intends to explore the targeted and effective energy policy implications through investigating the drivers of changes in energy consumption intensity of china during the 12th five year plan period under the input output framework the embodied energy consumptions intensities by final demand category were estimated at aggregate sector level and the total energy consumption intensity was decomposed using the additive multiplicative structural decomposition analysis among the final demand categories china s energy consumption intensity was mainly contributed by the investment followed by the household consumption according to the sda results china s total energy consumption increased by 28 8 of which the energy intensity effect and the investment effect were the most retardant and accelerator respectively at the same time china s total aggregate energy intensity decreased by 16 0 of which the energy intensity effect and the household consumption effect were the most retardant and accelerator respectively in detail the key sectors with respect to the critical effects were picked out above all policy implications are discussed for achieving the energy goals during the 13th five year plan period and launching the energy revolution during the 14th five year plan period

china s numerical management system for reducing national energy intensity in china the national target for energy intensity reduction when integrated with target disaggregation and information feedback systems constitutes a numerical management system which is a hallmark of modern governance this paper points out the technical weaknesses of china s current numerical management system in the process of target disaggregation the national target cannot be fully disaggregated to local governments sectors and enterprises without omissions at the same time governments at lower levels face pressure for reducing energy intensity that exceeds their respective jurisdictions in the process of information feedback information failure is inevitable due to statistical inaccuracy furthermore the monitoring system is unable to correct all errors and data verification plays a limited role in the examination system to address these problems we recommend that the government use total energy consumption as the primary indicator of energy management reform the accounting and reporting of energy statistics toward greater consistency timeliness and transparency clearly define the responsibility of the higher levels of government

china s energy consumption change from 1987 to 2007 a multi regional structural decomposition analysis abstract increasing use of energy has helped to stimulate china s economy despite central planning china has great differences in economic development energy endowment and energy consumption across its regions this paper uses the structural decomposition approach to uncover the regional disparities in energy consumption from 1987 to 2007 we also examine six possible key factors for the change in energy consumption by region we find that final demand change outpaced efficiency improvements to drive up energy use in all regions between 1987 and 2007 more surprisingly from 2002 to 2007 it appears that changes in production structure enhanced energy consumption in most regions china produced more energy intensive goods for capital investment and export we contend that improving the energy efficiency of key energy intensive sectors would lead a significant decline in energy intensity energy directly or indirectly is flowing from northwest central and north china to coastal regions regional specific policies should be designed to promote production structure change and curb energy demand

revisiting drivers of energy intensity in china during 1997 2007 a structural decomposition analysis the decline of china s energy intensity slowed since 2000 during 2002 2005 it actually increased reversing the long term trend therefore it is important to identify drivers of the fluctuation of energy intensity we use input output structural decomposition analysis to investigate the contributions of changes in energy mix sectoral energy efficiency production structure final demand structure and final demand category composition to china s energy intensity fluctuation during 1997 2007 we include household energy consumption in the study by closing the input output model with respect to households results show that sectoral energy efficiency improvements contribute the most to the energy intensity decline during 1997 2007 the increase in china s energy intensity during 2002 2007 is instead explained by changes in final demand composition and production structure changes in final demand composition are mainly due to increasing share of exports while changes in production structure mainly arise from the shift of chinese economy to more energy intensive industries changes in energy mix and final demand structure contribute little to china s energy intensity fluctuation from the consumption perspective growing exports of energy intensive products and increasing infrastructure demands explain the majority of energy intensity increase during 2002 2007

carbon dioxide emission drivers for a typical metropolis using input output structural decomposition analysis as the capital of china beijing is regarded as a major metropolis in the world study of the variation in temporal co2 emissions generated by the driving forces in beijing can provide guidance for policy decisions on co2 emissions mitigation in global metropolises based on input output structural decomposition analysis io sda we analysed the driving forces for the increment in co2 emissions in beijing from both production and final demand perspectives during 1997 2010 according to our results the co2 emission growth in beijing is driven mainly by production structure change and population growth partly offset by co2 emission intensity reduction as well as the decline in per capita final demand volume during the study period final demand structure change has a limited effect on the change in the co2 emissions in beijing from the final demand perspective urban trades urban residential consumption government consumption and fixed capital formation are mainly responsible for the booming emissions this study showed how the top down io sda methodology was implemented on a city scale policy implications from this study would be helpful for addressing co2 emissions mitigation in global capital cities and metropolises

prices capacity and the entry decision a conditional logit analysis an understanding of what potential entrants consider in reaching an entry decision is important in assessing the validity of some rather fundamental hypotheses concerning the behavior of firms faced with an entry threat the reason is that such hypotheses are based on implicit assumptions concerning what influences the decisions of potential entrants if for example established firms deter entry by adjusting their prices as suggested by the limit pricing hypothesis then it must be true that prices in fact influence potential entrants 1 similarly if firms build capacity to deter entry as suggested recently by spence 8 then it must be true that observed capacity in fact influences the entry decision hence an examination of whether these considerations are important to potential entrants can be interpreted as a test of a necessary though not sufficient condition for the existence of these types of behavior on the part of established firms despite the significance of this question as a foundation upon which a number of important hypotheses concerning firm behavior rest few studies have attempted to estimate the relationship between the relevant market characteristics and the behavior of identifiable potential entrants the reasons for this are not hard to isolate price data of the type required is not generally available for most industries leaving untested the frequently debated relationship between pre entry market price and the entry decision also in the interindustry context in which empirical resesarch is usually conducted it is virtually impossible to account systematically for the differing levels of knowledge and experience among potential entrants and such differences may significantly influence the relative attractiveness of markets for entry thus any attempt to estimate the relationship between market characteristics and the entry decisions of individual potential entrants in the interindustry context will founder on the inability to account for the influence of knowledge and experience on the attractiveness of the potential entrant s choices this paper circumvents these problems by examining the relationship between market

dynamics of energy technologies and global change technological choices largely determine the long term characteristics of industrial society including impacts on the natural environment however the treatment of technology in existing models that are used to project economic and environmental futures remains highly stylized based on work over two decades at iiasa we present a useful typology for technology analysis and discuss methods that can be used to analyze the impact of technological changes on the global environment especially global warming our focus is energy technologies the main source of many atmospheric environmental problems we show that much improved treatment of technology is possible with a combination of historical analysis and new modeling techniques in the historical record we identify characteristic l such network e ects yield high barriers to entry even for superior competitors these simple observations allow three improvements to modeling of technological change and its consequences for global environmental change one is that the replacement of long lived infrastructures over time has also replaced the fuels that power the economy to yield progressively more energy per unit of carbon pollution from coal to oil to gas such replacement has d they also include endogenous generation of s we show that doing so can yield projections with lessened environmental impacts without necessarily incurring negative e ect on the economy arriving on that path by the year 2100 depends on intervening actions such as incentives to promote greater diversity in technology and lower barriers to entry for new infrastructures that could accelerate historical trends of decarbonization 1999 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved