conditional cash transfers civil conflict and insurgent influence experimental evidence from the philippines abstract conditional cash transfer cct programs are an increasingly popular tool for reducing poverty in conflict affected areas despite their growing popularity there is limited evidence on how cct programs affect conflict and theoretical predictions are ambiguous we estimate the effect of conditional cash transfers on civil conflict in the philippines by exploiting an experiment that randomly assigned eligibility for a cct program at the village level we find that cash transfers caused a substantial decrease in conflict related incidents in treatment villages relative to control villages in the first 9 months of the program using unique data on local insurgent influence we also find that the program reduced insurgent influence in treated villages an analysis of possible spillovers yields inconclusive results while we find no statistical evidence of spillovers we also cannot rule out that the village level effect was due to displacement of insurgent activity from treatment to control villages

a rudimentary random matching model with divisible money and prices abstract we consider a version of kiyotaki and wright s monetary search model in which agents can hold arbitrary amounts of divisible money a continuum of stationary equilibria indexed by the aggregate real money stock exists with all trading occurring at a single price there is always a maximum level of the real money stock consistent with existence of such an equilibrium in the limit as trading becomes faster relative to discounting any real money stock becomes feasible in such an equilibrium in contrast to the original kiyotaki wright model higher equilibrium real money stocks unambiguously correspond to higher welfare in this costless production environment journal of economic literature classification numbers d51 e40

cash burns an inventory model with a cash credit choice abstract a dynamic cash management model is analysed where agents choose whether to pay with cash or credit at every point in time in the model credit usage depends on the current stock of cash a novel result that matches recent micro evidence on households payment choices the optimality of such a decision rule is novel and cannot be obtained by models where cash credit decisions are made at the beginning of each period we discuss how to use the model to account for cross country evidence on the intensity of credit usage and for several statistics on the size and frequency of cash withdrawals the model is used to assess the household s welfare cost of phasing out cash

money credit and banking in monetary models where agents are subject to trading shocks there is typically an ex post inefficiency since some agents are holding idle balances while others are cash constrained this problem creates a role for financial intermediaries such as banks who accept nominal deposits and make nominal loans in general financial intermediation improves the allocation the gains in welfare come from the payment of interest on deposits and not from relaxing borrowers liquidity constraints we also demonstrate that when credit rationing occurs increasing the rate of inflation can be welfare improving

search sticky prices and inflation this paper examines equilibrium in a deflationary environment in a market with free entry where consumers search and firms set prices on individual units of the commodity prices attached to newly produced goods are continuously adjusted prices attached to previously produced goods can only be changed at a cost deflation cuts into the market power created by the need to search for the good thus consumers welfare is inverse u shaped in deflation

from obscurity to notoriety a biography of the exchange stabilization fund the u s treasury s 20 billion loan to mexico in january 1995 from the exchange stabilization fund esf brought to public notice the fund that had functioned in obscurity since its authorization by the gold reserve act of january 31 1934 the design of the esf as set forth in the statute contributed to its obscurity its stated mission was to stabilize the exchange value of the dollar but it has also assumed a role that had no mandate that of lender to favored countries esf s intervention activities and the federal reserve s warehousing of esf foreign currency assets are questionable a statistical profile of the esf accounts for the growth of its working balance from 200 million in 1934 to 42 6 billion in assets in 1995 copyright 1997 by ohio state university press

endogenous market participation and the general equilibrium value of money we study the monetary theory implications of fixed costs associated with trade in private assets we show that with heterogeneous endowment profiles it is possible for an endogenous subset of agents to hold currency even when it is dominated in return by a competing asset with respect to positive issues in monetary theory the model implies that changes in the steady state growth rate of the money supply have a negative effect on real interest rates because of endogenous market participation measures on the normative side we show that there may be an equity efficiency trade off from monetary deflation

a comment on price dispersion inflation and welfare by a head and a kumar the principal results of head and kumar s article are derived under the natural assumption that the number of price offers received per period by buyers is distributed poisson this case is of interest for two reasons first because the infinite sums and integrals that enter the equilibrium conditions can be solved in closed form the derivations of the model s implications are straightforward second by regarding the arrival rate as the relevant measure of search intensity the analysis of endogenous search effort is simplified the empirical relationship between the rate of inflation and cross seller variation in prices has a long history however it is primarily empirical work without a theory the article by head and kumar 2005 provides an insightful theoretical foundation for the relationship with empirical content the primary purpose of this comment is to derive the principal results of the article using a special but natural assumption about the distribution of the number of price quotes received by buyers wherever possible the authors notation is utilized any new variables are introduced in the text 2 the model the model studied is a synthesis of the monetary exchange model proposed by shi on one hand and the price setting model of burdett and judd on the other in the burdett judd model each sellers sets its price to maximize expected profit given those of others the set of prices are described by a price offer c d f f p and each buyer observes a random sample of offers from this distribution each period the number of offers k i sitself a random variable let qk represent the probability that k offers will be received by any buyer in the article the authors assume that at least one price offer is always received it will be useful to extend the analysis here slightly by assuming that receiving no offer is a possibility i e q0 0

sticky prices a new monetarist approach why do some sellers set nominal prices that apparently do not respond to changes in the aggregate price level in many models prices are sticky by assumption here it is a result we use search theory with two consequences prices are set in dollars since money is the medium of exchange and equilibrium implies a nondegenerate price distribution when the money supply increases some sellers may keep prices constant earning less per unit but making it up on volume so profit stays constant the calibrated model matches price change data well but in contrast to typical sticky price models money is neutral jel e52 e31 e42

a divisible search model of fiat money this paper extends the kiyotaki wright search model of fiat money to allow for divisible money and goods the extension allows me to examine the standard issues in monetary economics such as the neutrality and superneutrality of money by severing the artificial link in the kiyotaki wright model between the money supply and the number of money holders it is shown that money is neutral but not superneutral money growth generates a trading opportunity effect it changes the fraction of different agents in the economy and hence changes the probability with which agents have a successful match in addition money growth has a negative effect on the real money balance that is familiar in walrasian monetary models the balance of the two effects can imply a positive optimal money growth rate

transaction services inflation and welfare this paper is motivated by empirical observations on the comovements of currency velocity inflation and the relative size of the credit services sector we document these comovements and incorporate into a monetary growth model a credit services sector that provides services that help people economize on money our model makes two new contributions first we show that direct evidence on the appropriately defined credit service sector for the united states is consistent with the welfare cost measured using an estimated money demand schedule second we provide estimates of the welfare cost of inflation that have some new features

money and credit as means of payment abstract a stochastic economic environment is presented in which the mix of cash and resource costly credit used as means of payment is endogenous for reasonable values of the credit cost parameter velocity can be quite variable and sensitive to the nominal interest rate those parameter values also generate larger welfare costs of inflation than have been found previously and a sizable impact of inflation on real interest rates

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

menu costs and the neutrality of money a model of endogenous price adjustment under money growth is presented firms follow s s pricing policies and price revisions are imperfectly synchronized in the aggregate price stickiness disappears and money is neutral the connection between firm price adjustment and relative price variability in the presence of monetary growth is also investigated the results contrast with those obtained in models with exogenous fixed timing of price adjustment

on the multiplicity of monetary equilibria green zhou meets lagos wright abstract green and zhou relax the assumption made in early search based models of monetary exchange of indivisible money their paper and various extensions make much technical progress and derive some interesting substantive results in particular they show there is an indeterminacy of steady state monetary equilibria we reconsider this result in the framework of lagos and wright which is more tractable we show that a similar multiplicity arises and is much easier to derive and understand we also compare the results to those in related nonmonetary models and discuss how they depend on details including the number of agents and the timing

how people pay evidence from grocery store data abstract empirical evidence based on grocery store transaction data shows that consumer payment behavior at the point of sale is important for understanding models of money demand there are statistically significant effects of transaction costs opportunity costs and product characteristics on the choice of payment instrument which then in turn affect money demand these results emphasize the overlap between the work of empirical researchers in payment choice and theoretical modelers of monetary economics and should inform both literatures

the shadow economy as an equilibrium outcome abstract we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model of tax evasion where agents choose to report some of their income unreported income requires using a payment method that avoids recordkeeping in some markets cash trade using cash to avoid taxes is the shadow economy in our model we then calibrate our model using money interest rate and gdp data to back out the size of the shadow economy for a sample of countries and compare our measures to traditional reduced form estimates

liquidity and asset prices a new monetarist approach abstract when lenders cannot force borrowers to repay debts assets are often pledged to secure loans in this paper borrowers lose collateral once they renege on debts and exclusion of defaulters occurs probabilistically with a higher probability implying better enforcement increased efficiency in enforcement reduces asset prices while raising loan to value ratios if the rise in loan to value ratios is the dominant effect aggregate liquidity and output increase with the advance in enforcement inflation raises the repayment cost by increasing the loan rate while raising the default cost through exclusion consequently inflation raises loan to value ratios and output only when enforcement is sufficiently efficient

prices are sticky after all abstract economists have interpreted the evidence that prices change every four months as implying that sticky prices cannot be important for monetary transmission theory implies that this interpretation is correct if most price changes are regular but not if a large fraction are temporary as in the data since regular prices are much stickier than temporary ones our models predict that the stickiness of the aggregate price level matches that in a standard calvo model or a standard menu cost model in which micro level prices change about once a year in this sense prices are sticky after all

inside money output and causality the authors present an explicit general equilibrium model consistent with these observations 1 innovations in the nominal money stock are positively correlated with and precede granger cause innovations in output 2 these innovations in the nominal money stock represent innovations in inside not outside money and 3 when interest rates are included in vector autoregressions their innovations not money s are seen to precede output changes in the money stock represent an endogenous reaction to some third factor and do not cause subsequent changes in output therefore a change in the current fiat money stock will not lead to any change in output copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

embeddedness inflation and international regimes the imf in the early postwar period1 this article explores why the international monetary fund imf adopted a set of orthodox anti inflationary policy prescriptions during the early postwar period when keynesian thinking was predominant drawing on primary documents from the imf archive and secondary literature the author argues that these early trends were fostered by dynamics familiar to organizational sociologists because organizations are designed by architects possessing bounded rationality they must adapt to circumstances unforeseen at their founding they may also be pushed in unexpected directions by the influential actors in their environments the power of professionals and the propensity to routinization international regimes which are partly made up of organizations may therefore be prone to internal contradictions

inflation and relative price variability in the short and long run new evidence from the united states this paper presents new evidence that a positive association exists between inflation and relative prices and relative inflation rates in very disaggregated data for the united states over the period 1975 through 1992 there is also evidence that the response of relative prices and relative inflation rates to inflation varies inversely with the information content of a given shock to inflation the relationship is studied from two cross sectional perspectives using individual price series collected from forty eight u s cities evidence on the persistence of the effects of inflation on relative prices is also presented results here demonstrate the absence of a long run relationship between inflation and relative price dispersion i e the two series are not cointegrated finally results from vector autoregressions further imply the effect is smaller than indicated by typical estimates copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

the adjustment of prices to monetary shocks when trade is uncertain and sequential trade is both uncertain and sequential money surprises are not neutral because prices at the beginning of the trading process cannot depend on its end in contrast with fixed price models in this paper sellers can change prices during trade in contrast with lucas s article here there is no asymmetry in the information about the money supply the price quoted by individual sellers may adjust slowly to changes in the targeted money supply but the distribution of quoted prices adjusts perfectly to these changes and the real price distribution is independent of the anticipated rate of change in the money supply

search price setting and inflation a model of monopolistic competition in an inflationary environment is developed which embodies optimal sequential search price dynamics and entry on the part of consumers and firms respectively equilibrium price strategies are s s these bounds increase continuously with consumer search costs and so does price dispersion indeed the whole equilibrium varies smoothly from the competitive bertrand to the monopolistic diamond 1971 end of the spectrum the latter s paradoxical result is explained as a limiting case where frictions on firms side of the market price adjustment costs but not on buyers search costs tend to zero a positive relationship between smooth and perfectly anticipated inflation and price dispersion or uncertainty is established

reference prices costs and nominal rigidities we assess the importance of nominal rigidities using a new weekly scanner dataset we find that nominal rigidities take the form of inertia in reference prices and costst defined as the most common prices and costs within a given quarter reference prices are particularly inertial and have an average duration of roughly one year even though weekly prices change roughly once every two weeks we document the relation between prices and costs and find sharp evidence of state dependence in prices we use a simple model to argue that reference prices and costs are useful statistics for macroeconomic

inflation and efficiency in search markets this paper examines how inflation affects efficiency and output in monopolistically competitive search markets it formalizes the conventional wisdom linking higher inflation price dispersion and increased resources devoted to search it also brings to light the induced exit of arms which reduces rent dissipation but the most important effect of inflation is how it alters the distribution of real transactions prices whether this reduces or promotes efficiency and output is shown to depend critically on preferences and market structure and especially on whether search costs are large or small relative to consumer surplus

sticky prices and costly credit we develop a theory of money and credit as competing payment instruments then put it to work in applications agents use cash and credit because the former latter is subject to the inflation tax transaction costs frictions that make the choice of payment method interesting also imply equilibrium price dispersion we derive closed form solutions for money demand and show how to simultaneously account for the price change facts cash credit shares in micro data and money interest correlations in macro data the effects of inflation on welfare price dispersion and markups are discussed as are nonstationary equilibria with dynamics in the price distribution

welfare costs of inflation in a menu cost model recent years have seen substantial prog ress in our understanding of pricing decisions at the micro level access to large scale data sources on prices of individual products has given us rich information on how frequently prices change by what magnitude and how the aggregation of price changes in individual firms maps into aggregate inflation see among many others mark bils and peter j klenow 2005 these facts about price movements are a key input in recent quantitative models of the aggre gate effects of nominal rigidities e g mikhail golosov and robert e lucas 2007 in this paper we use both the new facts and the new quantitative models to revisit an old question namely that of quantifying the welfare benefits of low inflation our model includes two

wage differentials employer size and unemployment the unique equilibrium solution to a game in which a continuum of individual employers choose permanent wage offers and a continuum of workers search by sequentially sampling from the set of offers is characterized wage dispersion is a robust outcome provided that workers search while employed as well as when unemployed the unique nondegenerate equilibrium distribution of wage offers is constructed for three cases 1 identical workers and employers 2 identical employers and an atomless distribution of worker supply prices and 3 identical workers and an atomless distribution of job productivities copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

mexico and the development of the practice of the international monetary fund abstract mexico has had a striking influence on the imf s articles and on the development of some of its most important policies both before and after the present version of the articles took effect in more recent years the problem of mexico s external debt has produced changes in the imf s relations with commercial banks its practice of surveillance and on the use of its resources under stand by arrangements in addition impending changes in the imf s response to external contingencies can be attributed to experience with mexico one of the generalizations drawn from this experience is that the imf s practice is not determined solely by the major industrialized countries

indivisibilities lotteries and monetary exchange we introduce lotteries randomized trading into search theoretic models of money in a model with indivisible goods and fiat money we show goods trade with probability 1 and money trades with probability where 1 iff buyers have sufficient bargaining power with divisible goods a nonrandom quantity q trades with probability 1 and again money trades with probability where 1 iff buyers have sufficient bargaining power moreover q never exceeds the efficient quantity not true without lotteries we consider several extensions designed to get commodities as well as money to trade with probability less than 1 and to illuminate the efficiency role of lotteries