bequests gifts and social security this paper analyses the very long run or stationary state impact of an unfunded social security system we use an overlapping generations model framework a key feature is that while parents care about their children and can leave non negative bequests to them children also care about their parents and can make non negative gifts to them we show that the possibility of negative net bequests may make social security less harmful to private wealth accumulation than would otherwise be the case a subsidiary finding is that risk loving behaviour may emerge for some households due to the nature of intergenerational transfers within family lines

optimal social security in a dynastic model with investment externalities and endogenous fertility this paper studies optimal pay as you go social security with investment externalities positive bequests and endogenous fertility with an investment externality a competitive solution without social security suffers from under investment in capital and over reproduction of population we show the existence of time consistent optimal social security that improves welfare by reducing fertility and increasing capital intensity we also illustrate numerically that a small degree of this externality can justify the observed high ratios of social security spending to gdp

volatility spread and stock market response to earnings announcements abstract using a broad sample of earnings announcements we find a monotonic increase in the spread between call and put implied volatilities as it gets closer to the earnings announcement date the steady build up of volatility spread in the days leading up to the announcement date coupled with the predictive power of cumulative abnormal implied volatility spread on subsequent announcement returns suggests that informed traders are the driving force behind the option market activities prior to earnings announcements such informed trading as proxied by the abnormal implied volatility spread increases rather than decreases the stock market response to earnings announcements after controlling for an array of firm and announcement characteristics this effect is most pronounced when the pre earnings option trading volume is heightened overall our findings lend strong support to the notion that informed options trading immediately before earnings announcements helps alleviate the stock market under reaction to earnings announcements and make it closer to a complete response

public versus private investment in human capital endogenous growth and income inequality in this paper we present an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents in which human capital investment through formal schooling is the engine of growth we use simple functional forms for preferences technologies and income distribution to highlight the distinction between economies with public education and those with private education we find that income inequality declines more quickly under public education on the other hand private education yields greater per capita incomes unless the initial income inequality is sufficiently high we also find that societies will choose public education if a majority of agents have incomes below average

long run effects of unfunded social security with earnings dependent benefits this paper examines the effects of unfunded social security with bequests fertility and human capital by considering a mix of earnings dependent and universal social security benefits we show that social security is more likely to promote growth by reducing fertility and increasing human capital investment if its benefits are more dependent on individuals own earnings through simulations we find that the differences in the effects of social security resulting from variations in the benefit formula can be too substantial to be ignored we also investigate the welfare effect in calibrated economies c 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

is increased public schooling really a policy for equality abstract empirical findings suggest different causes for higher educational attainment among children of high income earners either that poor parents are credit constrained or that parental human capital per se is important in the educational process my theoretical results show how these two diverging results can be brought together parental and public investments complement each other in the educational process because higher educated parents take advantage of increased productivity educational equality between rich and poor children is not necessarily promoted by further investments in public schooling moreover i show that educational investments in low skilled parents have spill over effects on their children and therefore have an unambiguously positive impact on equality

health investment saving and public policy this paper develops an overlapping generations model in which agents invest in health to prolong life in both working and retirement periods it explores how unfunded social security with or without health subsidies affects life expectancy economic growth and welfare in particular by extending life at a possible cost of capital accumulation health subsidies and a pay as you go pension can improve welfare especially in the short run

the political intergenerational welfare state abstract using a three period overlapping generations economy framework we characterize an intergenerational welfare state with endogenous education and pension under voting we show that although politically establishing pay as you go payg social security in isolation in a dynamically efficient economy will always reduce the capital investment and therefore the social welfare as expected in contrast politically implementing education pension policy package instead can improve both human and physical capital accumulation and social welfare over laissez faire however for this the political influence of the old has to be small thus limiting the size of the payg social security program

aggregate and distributional effects of fair social security abstract in an overlapping generations economy with production endogenous labor supply a bequest motive and uncertain lifetime we show that a fair fully funded social security program reduces the aggregate levels of output employment capital and savings we determine the necessary and sufficient conditions for this social security program to increase the inequality of the income distribution the conclusions apply to the entire non stationary competitive equilibrium path taken by the economy following the introduction of social security

distributional effects of public education in an economy with public pensions we study how the allocation of government expenditures between two major outlays education and pay as you go social security affects human capital distribution in an economy with heterogeneous agents we consider an overlapping generations economy where the government maintains both programs and allocates tax revenues to finance them in our model human capital is one of the factors of production it is itself produced as a combined result of public inputs and private inputs parents decisions to invest time and material resources in education of their children are motivated by altruism heterogeneous in its strength across the population which leads to heterogeneity of incomes we investigate the effect of an increase in public funding for education on the human capital distribution we show that in this framework contrary to some earlier results increased spending on public education may lead to higher inequality our results depend crucially on the interaction of education funding with the social security budget and on the elasticity of substitution in the learning technology

social security public education and the growth inequality relationship abstract we study how the relationship between economic growth and inequality depends upon the levels of funding of two of the largest government programs public education and social security we do this in the context of an overlapping generations economy with heterogeneous agents where the government collects a tax on labor income to finance these programs we show that in our model an increase in government spending on social security reduces income inequality and can have a non monotonic effect on growth when the initial level of social security funding is low as is the case in most poor economies then its increase will enhance growth when its funding level is high as is typical for developed countries we show that its further increase can slow down growth while reducing income inequality these results obtain regardless of whether the increase in social security funding is financed by a tax increase or by cutting the public education budget we also find that the effects of increasing the level of public education expenditures or the overall size of the government budget holding the budget composition fixed are characterized by similar non monotonic growth inequality relationships

the effect of derivative assets on information acquisition and price behavior in a rational expectations equilibrium this article shows that introducing derivative assets increases incentives to collect information about asset payoffs the increase in information collection makes the price of the underlying asset more informative and causes the expected price to increase extending the model to a dynamic setting with multiple risky assets we find the introducing derivative assets for one asset increases the expected prices of positively correlated assets and reduces price reaction to future earnings announcements these findings are consistent with the bulk of the empirical evidence on the relationship between the introduction of derivative assets and the behavior of asset prices article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

option prices as predictors of equilibrium stock prices the black scholes option pricing model modified for dividend payments is used to calculate jointly implied stock prices and implied standard deviations a comparison of the implied stock prices with observed stock prices reveals that the implied prices contain information regarding equilibrium stock prices that is not fully reflected in observed stock prices the implications of this finding are discussed this study investigates the role of call option prices as predictors of the equilibrium prices of their underlying stocks using the black scholes 3 bs model previous tests of the bs model have shown that the formula is highly successful in explaining the observed market prices of options see black and scholes 2 galai 8 chiras and manaster 6 and macbeth and merville 12 according to the model the option price is a function of the current value of the underlying stock the instantaneous variance of the stock s rate of return the time to maturity of the option the risk free rate of interest and the exercise price of the option 1 given an observed option price and known values of all input parameters to the bs model except the stock price one can determine the price of the underlying stock that equates the observed option price to its calculated value it follows from the underlying logic of the model that the implied price is the value of the underlying stock for which a continuously revised option bond portfolio would be a perfect substitute for the stock hence if options are actually priced according to the model implied stock prices will be the option market s assessment of equilibrium stock values previous empirical studies have assumed that observed stock prices are the relevant stock prices for option valuation however just as stock prices may differ in the short run from one exchange to another i e nyse midwest

the evolution of modern educational systems technical vs general education distributional conflict and growth abstract we study the evolution of an educational system founded on a hierarchical differentiation between vocational and general education with vocational playing an inferior role in the society the dynamics are best summarized by the ratio of the fraction of the population in vocational to that in general education which we interpret as a measure of the degree of stratification of the society we show that this ratio first rises and then declines with the level of development displaying an inverted u shape which reflects the complex interaction between economic and political forces including aggregate income growth wealth inequality and political participation

market implication of predisc10sure information size and exchange effects differential market reactions to earnings announcements can inter alia be ascribed to the extent to which such announcements entail surprise i e unexpected information the greater the predisclosure information the less the surprise element in earnings announcements since there is no direct measure of predisclosure information the literature has utilized two different proxies i firm size the size effect atiase 1980 1985 and ii exchange listing the exchange effect grant 1980 atiase 1980 argues that private predisclosure information production and dissemination are an increasing function of firm size capitalization if so the amount of unexpected information conveyed to the market by actual earnings reports should be inversely related to firm size other things equal empirical evidence in atiase 1985 supports this hypothesis grant 1980 found that for otc firms the average price revaluation associated with annual earnings announcements is significantly higher in the report week relative to both nonannouncement

video game demand in japan a household data analysis various economic studies of the video game industry have focused on intra industry details this article complements the approach by highlighting broader budget allocation by households using the total households data of the family income and expenditure survey this article estimates the demand model for video games estimation results show the effects of household income and demographic factors and prices of goods on the expenditure share of video games these results indicate the importance of explicitly considering a households budget allocation or at least including information on households

predisclosure information firm capitalization and security price behavior around earnings announcements several studies on the relationship between earnings reports and security price behavior provide evidence suggesting that a significant portion of the information revealed through earnings reports is reflected in security prices prior to the report month e g ball and brown 1968 and brown and kennelly 1972 this has been attributed at least partly to the existence of other more timely sources of information which allow market agents to forecast earnings prior to their release the evidence above reflects an average finding across all firms one question of interest is whether there are significant systematic crosssectional differences in the security price reactions to earnings announcements of firms which are associated with specific firm characteristics that lead to differential amounts of predisclosure information this study focuses on firm size capitalization as one such characteristic a firm

public pensions and growth abstract this paper investigates the relationship between the size of an unfunded public pension system and economic growth in an overlapping generation economy in which altruistic parents finance the education of their children and leave bequests unlike the existing literature we model intergenerational altruism by assuming that children s income during adulthood is an argument of parental utility unfunded public pensions can promote growth when families face liquidity constraints preventing them from investing optimally in the education of their children we consider two alternative ways of financing a public pension system either by levying social contributions in a lump sum manner or in proportion to labour income we find that there is no case for unfunded public pensions in economies where bequests are operative by contrast there exists a growth maximising size of the public pension system in economies where bequests are not operative and individuals are sufficiently patient

socially optimal social security and education subsidization in a dynastic model with human capital externalities fertility and endogenous growth abstract this paper considers socially optimal government policies in a dynastic family model with physical capital human capital endogenous fertility and positive spillovers from average human capital such spillovers reduce human capital investment but raise fertility from their social optimum we first characterize the social optimum with a non convex feasible set due to the quantity quality tradeoff concerning children we then show that social security and education subsidization together financed by labor income taxes can fully eliminate the efficiency losses of the spillovers and achieve the social optimum under plausible conditions however none of the policies can do so alone

the allocation of public funds in a hierarchical educational system abstract this paper studies the dynamic effects of allocating public funds between basic and advanced education holding the size of total public education funds fixed i identify the effects of their composition on aggregate efficiency and in equality first since basic education is a prerequisite for attending advanced education there exists a lower bound on funding it allocation policies below this lower bound are strictly pareto dominated whether a corresponding lower bound on funding advanced education exists or not depends on the development stage of the economy and the size of total public funds secondly while an allocation policy favoring basic education generates the usual redistribution from top to bottom one favoring advanced education may result in reverse redistribution from bottom to top last through the inter generational link short run allocation policies may have long run effects a simple rule of thumb is that for an economy in its early development stage focusing on basic education for sufficiently long duration is the only way out of polarization and low aggregate efficiency contrary to the actual policies pursued by many of the less developed economies

the testing and estimation of complete demand systems on household budget surveys a recent demand system aids is extended to include family size explicitly and then estimated on indian budget data the estimation using non linear fiml is performed first on pure time series and then on pooled cross section data within and across equation restrictions are imposed and tested the principal results include u a significant price and family size effects on the budget share of an item b sensitivity of test results on homogeneity and symmetry to i rural urban data ii time series cross section and iii inclusion omission of family size c considerable difference between pure time series and pooled cross section estimates and d difference between the expenditure responses of the rural and urban consumer

corruption fertility and human capital abstract we build an overlapping generations model in which reproductive households face a child quantity child quality trade off and bureaucrats are delegated with the task of delivering public services that support the accumulation of human capital by integrating the theoretical analyses of endogenous growth corruption and fertility choices we show that the negative relation between fertility and economic development may also be affected by differences in the magnitude of bureaucratic corruption

specification of the joy of giving insights from altruism this paper analyzes the joy of giving bequest motive in which the utility obtained from leaving a bequest depends only on the size of the bequest it exploits the fact that this formulation can be interpreted as a reduced form of an altruistic bequest motive to derive a relation between the value of the altruism parameter and the value of the joy of giving parameter using previous discussions of an a priori range of plausible values for the altruism parameter we then derive plausible restrictions on the joy of giving parameter we demonstrate that this parameter may well be orders of magnitude larger than assumed in the existing literature this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

optimal social security in a dynastic model with human capital externalities fertility and endogenous growth abstract in this paper we investigate the optimal scale of pay as you go social security in a dynastic family model with human capital externalities fertility and endogenous growth human capital externalities reduce the return to human capital investment and hence lead to under investment in human capital and over reproduction of the population if the taste for the number of children is sufficiently weak relative to the taste for the welfare of children social security can be welfare enhancing by reducing fertility and raising human capital investment per child

the role of intergenerational transfers and life cycle saving in the accumulation of wealth he purpose of this paper is to review what economists know at present about the following question how large a portion of the existing wealth is the result of a bequest motive that is of accumulation for the specific purpose of leaving bequests i will also endeavor to clarify why an answer to this question is of interest in the early keynesian period when the study of national saving first attracted wide interest relatively little attention was paid to what led people to save though it was generally understood that the main systematic reason was to leave bequests j m keynes in the famous chapter 9 of the general theory of employment interest and money 1936 had listed seven distinct motives for saving besides the leaving of bequests but five of these which include to increase one s future income or to insure one s independence and power implied that all or nearly all the accumulation would finally wind up as bequeathed wealth this in turn meant that most private wealth originated through bequests that is it either had been received through bequests or was destined to be bequeathed and indeed how else could society accumulate wealth however keynes 1936 p 107 also mentioned two further motives precaution that is to build up a reserve against unforeseen contingencies and foresight that is to provide for an anticipated future relation between the income and the needs of the individual or his family different from that which exists in the present as for example in relation to old age family education or the maintenance of dependents these motives in contrast to most of the previous ones have the

how strong are bequest motives evidence based on estimates of the demand for life insurance and annuities this paper presents new empirical evidence in support of the view that a significant fraction of total saving is motivated by the desire to leave bequests specifically i find that social security annuity benefits significantly raise life insurance holdings and depress private annuity holdings among elderly individuals these patterns indicate that the typical household would choose to maintain a positive fraction of its resources in bequeathable forms even if insurance markets were perfect evidence on the relationship between insurance purchases and total resources reinforces this conclusion

social security and individual welfare precautionary saving borrowing constraints and the payroll tax this paper examines the impact of social security on national saving and individual welfare in the presence of realistic capital market imperfections market failure in the private provision of annuities and restrictions on borrowing against anticipated future wages the introduction of social security increases lifetime welfare and reduces national saving if borrowing restrictions are absent however the increase in individual welfare is reduced and in some cases eliminated when borrowing constraints are taken into consideration the substantial difference suggests the importance of reexamining the proportional payroll tax finance of social security copyright 1987 by american economic association

public budget composition fiscal de centralization and welfare we study the optimal degree of fiscal decentralization in a dynamic federal economy where governments decide on budget size and its allocation between public education and infrastructure spending we find that full centralization of tax and expenditure policies is optimal when infrastructure productivity is similar across regions when differences are not too large partial centralization is optimal with strong differences full decentralization becomes optimal national steady state output tends to be highest under full decentralization we provide a justification for the mixed evidence regarding the oates conjecture by showing that full dominates partial decentralization despite being inferior to complete decentralization on etudie le degre optimal de decentralisation fiscale dans une economie federale dynamique ou les gouvernements decident de la taille du budget et de son allocation entre les depenses en education publique et en infrastructures on decouvre qu une pleine centralisation des taxes et des depenses est optimale quand la productivite des infrastructures est la meme dans toutes les regions quand les differences ne sont pas trop importantes une centralisation partielle est optimale en presence de fortes differences la pleine decentralisation est optimale la production nationale en regime permanent tend aetre la plus elevee quand il y a pleine decentralisation on fournit une justification pour les resultats mixtes obtenus quant a la conjoncture de oates en montrant que la pleine decentralisation est preferable a la decentralisation partielle meme si elle est inferieure a la decentralisation complete

option listing and the stock price response to earnings announcements abstract we examine the effect of option listing on the immediate stock price response to earnings announcements contrary to prior studies using earlier data we find firms initiating option trading after 1986 fail to exhibit a significant decline in earnings response we then examine 420 firms initiating option trading during 1973 1993 in a series of tests controlling for market wide effects and changing firm size we find some evidence that option listing may actually increase the stock price response to earnings but no evidence listing reduces the response both longitudinal and cross sectional tests produce similar results

the effects of compulsory schooling on growth income distribution and welfare abstract in this paper we consider an olg model with productive capital and human capital affecting the quality of labor in each generation parents invest in their children s education but disregard its external effect on the aggregate production function government intervention in providing compulsory schooling increases economic growth along the equilibrium path while the intragenerational income distribution becomes more equal also in the long run the majority of individuals in each generation are better off due to compulsory schooling

the association between accounting earnings and security returns for large and small firms abstract the differential information hypothesis advanced by atiase 1980 states that information production and dissemination by private parties for the purpose of identifying mispriced securities is an increasing function of firm size this study examines two corollaries of that hypothesis first security prices of large firms anticipate accounting earnings earlier than security prices of small firms second for a given level of unexpected earnings the cumulative abnormal returns of small firms exceed those of large firms the results are generally consistent with atiase s hypothesis

uncertainty and optimal social security systems this paper examines the annuity aspect of social security within the framework of an overlapping generations model the duration of life is assumed to be uncertain under a fully funded system demand for social security is determined by each generation so as to maximize expected lifetime utility taking into account the welfare of future generations under a pay as you go system with intergenerational transfers demand for retirement benefits by the working population takes into account taxes paid by descendants it is shown that the two modes of finance are equivalent in terms of all real aggregates effects of changes in expected lifetime and in the birth rate are analyzed starting at the optimal level a compulsory balanced increase in social security taxes and benefits is shown to increase short run savings

public schooling college subsidies and growth abstract how does the mix of public education expenditures across primary and secondary k 12 education and post secondary college education influence economic growth to address this i build an overlapping generations endogenous growth model human capital is accumulated through compulsory k 12 education and through optional college education government uses tax revenue to provide quality in k 12 schooling and to subsidize college tuition when total expenditures are small all funds should provide k 12 quality when expenditures are above a critical value a positive share should subsidize tuition the share should increase with total expenditures and with the degree of complementarity of human capital accumulated through the two types of education also increased education spending is more likely to increase growth when a larger share subsidizes tuition

earnings announcements stock price adjustment and the existence of option markets this paper employs a new approach to study the effects of option trading on the behavior of underlying stock prices extant research compares distributional properties of the stock price at two points in time divided by an event in the option market that might affect price behavior as an alternative we examine the stock price adjustment to the release of quarterly earnings using samples of firms with and without listed options we find the two samples exhibit different adjustment processes with the nonoption firms requiring substantially more time to adjust since the advent of organized stock option trading the investment community

education choice endogenous growth and income distribution this paper studies an economy where parents can choose between public or private schools and can vote on taxes used to fund public schools the model is calibrated to us data and studied using simulations a bimodal income distribution emerges where public education students converge to a low income equilibrium while private education students experience endogenous growth with higher incomes however public education students experience long run growth through a spillover from private education students possible problems with the existence of a private alternative to pubic education such as the emergence of a education based class structure are identified

firm size and the information content of prices with respect to earnings abstract beaver lambert and morse 1980 suggest that prices may be useful in forecasting future earnings we explore the information content of prices with respect to earnings by focusing on firm size and its relation to the predictive accuracy of price based earnings forecasts firm size proxies for the amount of information and for the number of traders and professional analysts processing the available information about an enterprise our empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis that price based earnings will outperform univariate time series forecasts by a greater margin for larger firms than for smaller firms

demographic variables in demand analysis in this paper the authors discuss five procedures for incorporating demographic variables into theoretically plausible demand systems translating scaling and the gorman reverse gorman and implicit prais houthakker procedures these five procedures are used to incorporate a single demographic variable the number of children in a household into the generalized ces demand system using household budget data for the united kingdom for the period 1966 1972 excerpt

education social security and growth abstract we study the role of government s allocation of tax revenues between two outlays public investment in education a transfer to the young generation and social security benefits to the older generation in an overlapping generations economy with pay as you go social security and altruistically motivated transfers from parents to children we analyze how the allocation of the tax revenues between the two outlays affects growth and welfare in competitive equilibria a we obtain comparative dynamics results for nonstationary equilibria subject to a change in the allocation profile b for stationary equilibria we show that for a given allocation profile of the tax revenues educational subsidies can either increase the growth rate or decrease it depending on the parameters of the model preferences production function and the tax rate c if government seeks to allocate funds in a way that maximizes the growth rate we demonstrate that under some plausible conditions it is not optimal to maintain pay as you go social security however if parents preferences combine strong concern for their retirement with significant degree of altruism towards their children then pay as you go social security system does enhance growth and welfare

the role of intergenerational transfers in aggregate capital accumulation this paper uses historical u s data to directly estimate the contribution of intergenerational transfers to aggregate capital accumulation the evidence presented indicates that intergenerational transfers account for the vast majority of aggregate u s capital formation only a negligible fraction of actual capital accumulation can be traced to life cycle or hump savings a major difference between this study and previous investigations of this issue is the use of more accurate longitudinal age earnings and age consumption profiles these profiles are simply too flat to generate substantial life cycle savings this paper suggests the importance of and need for substantially greater research and data collection on intergenerational transfers life cycle models of savings that emphasize savings for retirement as the dominant form of capital accumulation should give way to models that illuminate the determinants of intergenerational transfers

uncertain lifetimes and the welfare enhancing properties of annuity markets and social security this paper explores the implications of social security programs and annuity markets through which agents who are characterized by different distributions of length of lifetime share deathrelated risks when annuity markets operate a non discriminatory social security program affects only the intragenerational allocation of resources in the absence of private information regarding individual survival probabilities such a program will lead to a non optimal intragenerational allocation of resources however the presence of adverse selection considerations gives rise to a pareto improving role for a mandatory non discriminatory social security program

information trade and derivative securities hellwig s 1980 model is used to analyze the value of improving trading opportunities by more frequent trading in the underlying asset or by trading in a derivative asset with multiple trading sessions uninformed investors behave as rational trend followers while more informed investors follow a contrarian strategy as trading becomes continuous pareto efficiency is achieved with trading in an appropriate derivative security pareto efficiency may be achieved in only a single round of trading all derivative claims are then priced on black and scholes 1973 principles and in the absence of further supply shocks no trading will take place in subsequent trading rounds article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

endogenous determination of public budget allocation across education stages abstract this paper studies the endogenous determination of public budget allocation across hierarchical education stages in less developed economies the top class has dominant political power to implement its most preferred policy which is characterized by exclusive participation and large schooling expenditure at higher education at the expense of basic education in developed economies the budget allocation is more balanced under certain parameters it leads to expanded participation of the middle class in higher education the model offers an explanation to the observed cross country policy difference and is broadly consistent with historical evidence

endogenous fiscal policy and capital market transmissions in the presence of demographic shocks abstract previous analyses of population aging mainly focused on the social security implications of the aging trend this paper addresses aging in an open economy framework with two regions that have politically responsive fiscal policy regarding education finance demographic shocks start an economic growth process but results are sensitive to a critical parameter in the model that indicates return to education spending low values of this parameter are associated with less favorable economic outcomes hence a policy implication emerges that enhancing the education system might pay off in terms of easing the negative growth and welfare consequences of expected demographic shocks

two sided intergenerational transfer policy and economic development a politico economic approach we consider an overlapping generations model with public education and social security where the overall size of these policies is determined in a repeated voting game we investigate the interaction between the politically determined policies and economic development in a markov perfect equilibrium the following results are obtained first the level of human capital determines whether these policies are sustained in the markov perfect equilibrium second if the level of initial human capital is sufficiently high human capital grows forever in contrast if the level of initial human capital is low the economy might be caught in a poverty trap

cross sectional dependence and problems in inference in market based accounting research this paper provides a framework and some empirical evidence to evaluate the seriousness of problems in inference that arise in stockreturn based studies when the data are cross sectionally dependent the study is motivated on the grounds that statistical procedures designed to address such problems are often infeasible and even when they can be implemented they sometimes introduce other more serious difficulties thus researchers have frequently adopted an approach that ignores the cross sectional dependence e g ordinary least squares ols the objective of this paper is to help identify the contexts in which ignoring the dependence would lead to serious misstatement of significance levels cross sectional dependence in stock returns data is likely to exist when at least some of the returns are sampled from common time periods this would be the case in all studies of the reaction of stock prices to a

children and household economic behavior this paper looks at some of the methodological issues that arise in modeling the effects of children on household behavior and presents some estimates for selected areas for our purposes household behavior will be taken to refer to household decisions on labor supply the allocation of expenditure to different periods and the decision as to what to do with the difference between income and expenditure i shall be concerned mainly with the effects of dependent children and i restrict attention largely to western societies excerpt

optimal public investments in education and endogenous growth optimal public investments in human capital through subsidizing private education or providing public education are considered in an endogenous growth model with externalities subsidizing private education stimulates growth improves welfare and has no distributional effect while reducing income inequality as in the literature public education hinders the growth of the average income unless externalities are strong enough and reduces the welfare of the median agent unless initial income inequality is sufficiently high societies with high income inequality may provide public education and will replace it with subsidized private education in some future periods as income converges copyright 1996 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

relationship between differential amounts of prior information and security return variability this study investigates the relation between stock return variability at annual earnings announcements and the amount of prior information available about a firm which is measured by both the number of security analysts annual earnings forecasts and firm size market value of common equity we find that each of these information measures is inversely related to return variability at annual earnings announcements after controlling for differences in the other this result suggests that number of security analysts earnings forecasts and firm size measure dimensions of the amount of prior information available about a firm that are not subsumed by one another the study also provides evidence using empirically generated distributions that test statistics derived from squared standardized market model prediction errors have larger means and variances for firms with few analysts forecasts or for small firms than for firms with many analysts forecasts or for large firms this result implies that the probability of obtaining large values of those test statistics is greater for firms with few analysts forecasts or for small firms therefore the probability of concluding there is increased return variability at annual earnings announcements is greater for those firms consistent with marais 1984

pay as you go or funded social security a general equilibrium comparison abstract this paper demonstrates that the analysis of fiscal sustainability of social security must include the education funding dimension of public policy which affects the productivity of future workers this fact is true under both social security regimes pay as you go payg and fully funded ff we consider an olg economy where the government in addition to running social security also funds education via a dedicated tax the education tax rates are chosen in each period by a majoritarian rule we demonstrate contrary to conjectures in the literature that the ff social security system produces political support for a relatively higher compared to payg education funding and hence generates higher rates of human capital accumulation physical capital accumulation and economic growth furthermore it also results in a comparatively lower degree of income inequality

public versus private investment and growth in a hierarchical education system abstract the paper studies the interaction between public and private spending in a two stage education framework k 12 and tertiary education and their effects on economic growth we find that an increase in the overall education public spending crowds out the total level of private contributions and increases the share of resources that households devote to k 12 education for a given public budget a higher share of k 12 public funding induces higher private education spending overall of which a larger share goes towards higher education the model broadly matches data on education finance in the oecd countries the calibrated parameter values suggest that at both stages public and private inputs are good yet imperfect substitutes with a higher degree of complementarity in basic education we show that the growth maximizing share of public spending devoted to k 12 should be high irrespective of the size of the public budget using the calibrated model to compare the structure of education funding in the eu and the us we find that to maximize growth high tax countries should use more of their public resources in tertiary education relative to low tax countries this suggests that us efforts to improve k 12 education and the reform of higher education in europe are consistent with the objective of increased economic growth

funded social security and economic growth abstract this paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and a fully funded social security system in an overlapping generations model with family altruism it is shown that funded social security may harm growth if there are operative bequests within the family

options short sales and market completeness this paper presents empirical evidence that trading in options contributes to both transactional and informational efficiency of the stock market by reducing the effect of constraints on short sales the significantly higher average level of short interest exhibited by optionable stocks supports the argument that options facilitate short selling we also find significant effects on option prices related to the short interest in the underlying stock we then present evidence that options also increase information efficiency earlier work that is replicated and extended here has suggested that short sale constraints cause stock prices to underweight negative information options appear to reduce that effect

estimation of complete demand systems from household budget data the linear and quadratic expenditure systems in this paper we explore two issues in empirical demand analysis the estimation of complete systems of demand equations using household budget data section i and the incorporation of demographic characteristics into such systems section ii although there are numerous studies which use time series data to estimate complete demand systems and many which estimate engel curves from household budget data there are virtually none which combine budget data from different periods to estimate complete systems since each budget study corresponds to a single price situation one might conjecture that estimation of complete systems would not be possible unless budget studies were available from a large number of periods this is incorrect in section i we argue that interesting complete demand systems can be estimated from a small number of budget studies despite the limited price variability represented in such data to demonstrate this we use budget study data for two periods to estimate a pair of related demand systems the familiar linear expenditure system les and a quadratic expenditure system qes a generalization of les in which the demand equations are quadratic in total expenditure the inclusion of demographic variables in the analysis of household consumption patterns is desirable because there are likely to be systematic differences in the consumption behavior of households with different demographic characteristics but the effects of demographic characteristics have seldom been studied within the framework of complete demand systems in section ii we propose translating as a general method for incorporating demographic variables into complete systems of demand equations this method has not previously been discussed as a general technique for bringing demographic variables into demand systems although it has been employed in several studies to improve the estimates of the les and the qes presented in section i we reestimate these two systems using translating to incorporate family size

intergenerational transfers and the accumulation of wealth h t ouseholds acquire wealth from two sources they save out of income they have earned and they receive transfers from other people the first method of wealth accumulation goes under the name of life cycle saving in which people save during their working lives and dissave after retirement the second involves either an inter vivos transfer that is a transfer between living people or a bequest a transfer that occurs at the death of the donor while inter vivos transfers and bequests will arise in dynastic models where preferences include a taste for the well being of one s descendents few empirical life cycle models reflect these concerns indeed a sharp debate has arisen over the ability of the simple life cycle model to explain observed wealth accumulation understanding the relative sizes of these sources of wealth accumulation affects a variety of issues for example the effects of government debt social insurance public transfer programs estate taxes and incentives for charitable giving depend to some extent on the magnitude and nature of private saving and transfers of wealth analyses of the inequality of wealth may depend on whether most of wealth is earned or received as transfers appropriate policies for encouraging private saving may look rather different depending on whether most saving is to be consumed later in life or passed along to the next generation finally evidence on transfer patterns relates to more fundamental

public education expenditures taxation and growth linking data to theory governments around the world have taken a prominent role in financing education while justifications for this involvement are varied a common motivation is that education expenditures are a key to sustained economic growth economic theory provides a foundation for this belief many papers in the endogenous growth literature have formalized a link between public education expenditures human capital accumulation and long term growth while theory assigns public education expenditures a key role in growth empirical support for the link is mixed as highlighted by blankenau and simpson 004 the disconnect between theory and data can be reconciled by taking a closer look at the theory in nearly every model where growth is fueled by public education expenditures a nonmonotonic relationship between expenditures and growth can arise public education spending increases growth while taxes may decrease growth leaving the net effect ambiguous thus economic theory shows that to identify the growth effects of expenditures one must account for any offsetting effects of the requisite taxation most empirical investigations of these effects do not explicitly control for the method of finance however in contrast we make the relationship between expenditures taxation and growth central to our analysis we estimate a

educational systems growth and income distribution a quantitative study this study sets out to develop a dynamic model within an economy characterized by the coexistence of public and private schools under imperfect credit market conditions in an attempt to provide a clearer understanding of the evolution of economic growth and income inequality we find that any government wishing to reduce income inequality should adopt policies aimed at increasing the enrollment rate in public schools however whilst high enrollment rates can be sustained in private schools and thus create enhanced economic growth this can only occur if accompanied by the liberalization of the credit markets