putting sustainable investing into practice a governance framework for pension funds this article presents a framework intended to provide pension funds with practical guidance for the successful implementation of a sustainable investing strategy the framework is developed with respect to the uk and us pension funds as these share certain common legal characteristics and focuses on the changes that pension funds adopting such a strategy should make to their investment strategies and governance particularly through the formulation and articulation of clear investment mission and strong investment beliefs the article proceeds with a review of socially responsible investment sri and more recent responsible investment ri literature in the context of growing public awareness but not necessarily understanding of the concept of sustainability literature review of sri field sri ri and sustainable investing section it then examines the literature on pension fund governance arguing the need for more detailed practical guidance for funds moving towards sustainable investing especially for those implementing a sustainable investing strategy anglo american pension fund governance section it presents the framework for the practical implementation of sustainable investing in the sustainable investing framework section finally we review the relevant anglo american legal backdrop outlining how pension funds adopting our framework should approach their fiduciary obligations and then discussing potential regulatory enablers of sustainable investment legal context barriers to and enablers of sustainable investing section

project evaluation by potential tax reform abstract shadow prices are derived for small open economies with several production sectors experiencing constant returns to scale small projects affect the balance of trade domestic prices of non traded goods and factors and sector scales only domestic prices affect welfare and only if there is not domestic price equalization generally a project s net benefits depend upon the potential tax and tariff reform made possible or necessary through the balance of trade effect border prices are right for traded goods but domestic good shadow pricing requires knowing the direction of at least one reversible available tax reform and presuming optimality with respect to available reforms

the econometrics of the environmental kuznets curve an illustration using australian co2 emissions four econometric issues associated with the estimation and testing of the environmental kuznets curve ekc are considered i model specification with respect to the order of the polynomial ii

the drivers of responsible investment the case of european pension funds we investigate what drives responsible investment of european pension funds pension funds are institutional investors who assure the income of part of the population for a long period of time increasingly stakeholders hold pension funds accountable for the non financial consequences of their investments and many funds have engaged in responsible investing however it appears that there is a wide difference between pension funds in this respect we investigate what determines pension funds responsible investments on the basis of a survey of more than 250 pension funds in 15 european countries in 2010 we use multinomial logistic regression and find that especially legal origin of the country ownership of the pension fund and fund size related variables are to be associated with pension funds responsible investment for fund size we establish a curvilinear relationship especially the smallest and largest pension funds in the sample tend to engage with responsible investing

finance as a driver of corporate social responsibility finance is grease to the economy therefore we assume that it may affect corporate social responsibility csr and the sustainability of economic development too this paper discusses the transmission mechanisms between finance and sustainability we find that there is no simple one to one relationship between financial development and sustainable development but there are various often indirect linkages it appears that most of the literature concentrates on the role of public shareholders when it comes to changing corporate policy and performance in a more sustainable direction however this focus neglects the potential impact of the credit channel and private equity on a firm s non financial policies and performance these very powerful mechanisms can govern business policies and practices therefore there appears to be much more scope for finance to promote socially and environmentally desirable activities and to discourage detrimental activities than has been acknowledged in the academic literature so far

shadow prices for non traded goods in a tax distorted economy formulae and values abstract two different approaches to the shadow pricing of non traded goods in tax distorted economies have led to differing shadow price formulae these include measures of marginal foreign exchange cost expressions incorporating producer prices and tax revenues and the harberger weighted average formula this paper uses a general equilibrium model with fixed taxes to demonstrate the equivalence of these formulae it is argued that distinguishing between the formulae and their values answers many of the criticisms that have been advanced as to the usefulness of shadow prices

the speculative efficiency hypothesis the hypothesis that forward prices are the best unbiased forecast of future spot prices is often presented in the economic and financial analysis of futures markets this paper considers the hypothesis independently of its implications for rational expectations or market efficiency and in order to stress this fact the term speculative efficiency is used to characterize the state envisaged under the hypothesis if a market is subject to efficient speculation the supply of speculative funds is infinitely elastic at the forward price that is equal to the expected future spot price the expected future spot price is a market price determined as the solution to the underlying rational expectations macroeconomic model although the paper is primarily concerned with testing this hypothesis in the foreign exchange market the methodology introduced in the paper is of general application to all futures markets this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

behavioral economics for environmental policy abstract the predictions of widely prescribed global and country level environmental policies at present are based mainly on mainstream economic models which treat individual actors to be unboundedly rational in their decision making in recent years however behavioral and experimental economists have found that the individual actors in many circumstances act within a bounded rationality framework suggesting that predictions based on the unbounded rationality models would be less valid while some of mainstream economists have already started adopting the bounded rationality based models in their academic discourse many environmental economists seem to be reluctant to use these alternative models of rationality in their research and policy prescriptions this paper highlights the implications of using bounded rationality models in environmental research in general and policymaking in particular

interest rates and currency prices in a two country world abstract this paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices interest rates and currency exchange rates set in an infinitely lived two country world which is subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability formulas are obtained for pricing all equity claims nominally denominated bonds and currencies and these formulas are related to earlier closely related results in the theories of money finance international trade

cost benefit criteria and the compensation principle in evaluating small projects the use of the compensation principle in cost benefit analysis as a means of separating the efficiency and distributional effects of a project is theoretically suspect for a number of reasons one difficulty is the lack of a necessary and sufficient criterion for determining that a compensation test is passed in an economy where consumers and producers prices are not the same for this paper we establish such a criterion for projects that are small in the differential sense the criterion requires the calculation of a set of shadow prices which is a weighted average of the consumers and producers price vectors

responsible investing of pension assets links between framing and practices for evaluation despite the increase in the acceptance of responsible investing ri in general allianz in www allianzglobalinvestors com 2010 the global community is still witnessing unprecedented levels of practices that can only be categorized as unsustainable it appears then that either the inroads made by the ri community have not kept up with the increase in unsustainable practices or that the ri process itself has been ineffective at producing meaningful change the current study aims to investigate the practices used by pension plan sponsors to determine how they may enable or interfere with the adoption of implementation of ri we adopt framing theory benford and snow annual review of sociology 26 611 639 2000 specifically the idea that particular frames find alignment when they resonate with their targets by either bridging extending amplifying or transforming a domain we extend research to include understudied practices by performing an analysis of 60 public pension funds in canada we find evidence of disconnect between the financial frame which dominates practices for compliance and evaluation and the social frame of ri as a source of change if the aim of ri is to produce long term change then a consideration of whether it aligns with extant practices is critical we discover a variety of frame alignment tactics already employed in practice we also find that even within the dominant financial frame opportunities for frame extension amplification and transformation do exist and examine how these are more or less possible depending on how the asset management structure is designed

monetary fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics under different nominal regimes we investigate the dynamic relationship between the us dollar exchange rate and its fundamentals across different exchange rate regimes using data going back to the late 1800s or early 1900s for six industrialized countries for these countries there is evidence of a long run relation between the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals consistent with conventional theories of exchange rate determination we employ a markov switching vector equilibrium correction model that allows for regime shifts in the entire set of parameters and the variance covariance matrix our results suggest that the relative importance of exchange rates and fundamentals in restoring the long run equilibrium level implied by the exchange rate monetary fundamentals model varies significantly over time and is affected by the nominal exchange rate regime in operation

can the markov switching model forecast exchange rates abstract a markov swirching model is fit for 18 exchange rates at quarterly frequencies the model fits well in sample for many exchange rates by the mean squared error criterion the markov model does not generate superior forecasts to a random walk or the forward rate there appears to ne some evidence that the forecasts of the markov model are superior at predicting the direction of change of the exchange rate

the effect of green investment on corporate behavior this paper explores the effect of exclusionary ethical investing on corporate behavior in a risk averse equilibrium setting while arguments exist that ethical investing can influence a firm s cost of capital and so affect investment no equilibrium model has been presented to do so we show that exclusionary ethical investing leads to polluting firms being held by fewer investors since green investors eschew polluting firms stock this lack of risk sharing among non green investors leads to lower stock prices for polluting firms thus raising their cost of capital if the higher cost of capital more than overcomes a cost of reforming i e a polluting firm cleaning up its activities then polluting firms will become socially responsible because of exclusionary ethical investing a key determinant of the incentive for polluting firms to reform is the fraction of funds controlled by green investors in our model empirically reasonable parameter estimates indicate that more than 20 green investors are required to induce any polluting firmss to reform existing empirical evidence indicates that at most 10 of funds are invested by green investors

currency fluctuations in the post bretton woods era the international monetary landscape that has emerged since the felling of bretton woods is characterized by a hybrid exchange rate system that lies somewhere between the textbook polar cases of a gold standard and a pure float this system has relatively flexible exchange rates between major countries active central bank intervention in the market for the major currencies and predominantly fixed exchange rates relative to the dollar or to some basket of currencies for less developed countries and newly industrializing nations the majority of research on currency markets since the early 1970s has focused on the characteristics of flexible exchange rates under this hybrid regime my thesis is that this research has been unsuccessful the proportion of monthly or quarterly exchange rate changes that current models can explain is essentially zero even after the fact forecasts that use actual values instead of forecasted values of the explanatory variables cannot explain major currency movements over the post bretton woods era this result is quite surprising since exchange rate changes would be entirely unpredictable only in very special cases of the theoretical models discussed as the discussion below will argue it is not a general implication of market efficiency that exchange rates follow a random walk process 1

does equity ownership matter for corporate social responsibility a literature review of theories and recent empirical findings based on the concept of shareholder primacy many scholars have argued that it is more important for businesses to earn profits for their shareholders than to provide benefits to society at large corporate social responsibility csr is often regarded as an investment that comes at the expense of shareholders in contrast research analyzing the connections between the equity ownership structure of a company and its level of csr engagement suggests that csr offers benefits to shareholders that go beyond direct financial returns from investments this study provides a comprehensive review and systematic assessment of theoretical considerations and approaches regarding different forms of equity ownership and their relationships to csr and it discusses the relevant benefits and motivations of shareholders the perceived value of these csr benefits varies among different types of shareholders as they assign unequal values to short term financial or to rather long term csr benefits based on a literature sample of 146 publications this review demonstrates central problems inherent in previous analyses given the ambiguous and partially contradictory findings of prior research this study identifies potential moderating influences that help clarify empirical evidence a contingency approach is suggested in future research as this can help resolve the problem of contradictory empirical findings and theoretical arguments

the measurement of the benefits of public inputs with distortionary taxation this paper derives formulae that show the marginal benefits of public inputs in second best economies with tax distortions the values of the change in the aggregate net output vector and in some cases the change of profit income evaluated at appropriate shadow prices show their marginal benefits these shadow prices depend on which taxation scheme you can perturb when the amount of a public input is increased the author considers the three cases where he can change 1 all indirect tax rates and all corporate income tax rates 2 all lump sum transfers and 3 some part of indirect tax rates

the heterogeneity of socially responsible investment many writers have commented on the heterogeneity of the socially responsible investment sri movement however few have actually tried to understand and explain it and even fewer have discussed whether the opposite standardisation is possible and desirable in this article we take a broader perspective on the issue of the heterogeneity of sri we distinguish between four levels on which heterogeneity can be found the terminological definitional strategic and practical whilst there is much talk about the definitional ambiguities of sri we suggest that there is actually some agreement on the definitional level there are at least three explanations which we suggest can account for the heterogeneity on the other levels cultural and ideological differences between different regions differences in values norms and ideology between various sri stakeholders and the market setting of sri discussing the implications of the three explanations for the sri market we suggest that there is reason to be sceptical about the possibilities of standardisation if not standardisation is imposed top down whether this kind of standardisation is desirable or not we argue depends on what the motives for it would be to the extent that standardisation may facilitate the mainstreaming of sri it could be a good thing but we entertain doubts about whether mainstreaming really requires standardisation

the statistics of sharpe ratios the building blocks of the sharpe ratio expected returns and volatilities are unknown quantities that must be estimated statistically and are therefore subject to estimation error this raises the natural question how accurately are sharpe ratios measured to address this question i derive explicit expressions for the statistical distribution of the sharpe ratio using standard asymptotic theory under several sets of assumptions for the return generating process independently and identically distributed returns stationary returns and with time aggregation i show that monthly sharpe ratios cannot be annualized by multiplying by 12 except under very special circumstances and i derive the correct method of conversion in the general case of stationary returns in an illustrative empirical example of mutual funds and hedge funds i find that the annual sharpe ratio for a hedge fund can be overstated by as much as 65 percent because of the presence of serial correlation in monthly returns and once this

why is it so difficult to outperform the random walk in exchange rate forecasting a simulation exercise is used to demonstrate the difficulty to outperform the random walk in exchange rate forecasting if forecasting accuracy is judged by the root mean square error rmse or similar criteria that depend on the magnitude of the forecasting error it is shown that as the exchange rate volatility rises the rmse of the model rises faster than that of the random walk while the literature considers this finding to be a puzzle that casts a big shadow of doubt on the soundness of international monetary economics the results show that failure to outperform the random walk in both in sample and out of sample forecasting should be the rule rather than the exception however the results do not imply that the random walk is unbeatable because it can be easily outperformed if forecasting accuracy is judged according to criteria such as direction accuracy and profitability

the corporate social performance financial performance link strategic managers are consistently faced with the decision of how to allocate scarce corporate resources in an environment that is placing more and more pressures on them recent scholarship in strategic management suggests that many of these pressures come directly from sources associated with social issues in management rather than traditional arenas of strategic management using a greatly improved source of data on corporate social performance this paper reports the results of a rigorous study of the empirical linkages between financial and social performance corporate social performance csp is found to be positively associated with prior financial performance supporting the theory that slack resource availability and csp are positively related csp is also found to be positively associated with future financial performance supporting the theory that good management and csp are positively related 1997 by john wiley sons ltd

the legal environment banks and long run economic growth this paper examines the relationship between the legal system and banlding development and traces this connection through to long run rates of per capita gdp growth capital stock growth and productivity growth the data indicate that countries where the legal system 1 emphasizes creditor rights and 2 rigorously enforces contracts have better developed banks than countries where laws do not give a high priority to creditors and where enforcement is lax furtherrnore the exogenous component of banking development the component defined by the legal environment is positively and robustly associated with per capita growth physical capital accumulation and productivity growth this paper addresses two questions first do crosscountry differences in the legal rights of creditors the efficiency of contract enforcement and the origin of the legal system explain cross country differences in the level of banking development second do better developed banks cause faster economic development that is is the component of banking development defined by the legal environment positively associated with long run rates of economic growth capital accumulation and productivity growth examining the relationship between the legal system and banking development is valuable irrespective of issues associated with long run growth first banks may influence the level of income per capita and the magnitude of cyclical fluctuations bernanke and gertler 1989 1990 second many economists stress that understanding the evolution of legal and financial systems is essential for understanding economic development north 1981 engerman and sokoloff 1996 consequently quantitative information on the relationship between the legal environment and banks will improve our understanding of business cycles and the process of economic development furthermore examining the causal links between banks and economic growth has both conceptual and policy implications on the conceptual front a long literature debates the importance of banks in economic development starting as early as bagehot 1873 economists have argued that better banks banks that are better at identifying creditworthy firms mobilizing savings pooling risks and facilitating transactions

tariff reform in a small open multi household economy with domestic distortions and nontraded goods we examine tariff reforms in the context of a small open economy and simultaneously deal with three extensions of the current literature nonremovable domestic tax distortions nontraded goods and many households using the new concepts of a constant utility tax adjusted balance of trade function and a constant utility productivity improvement in tariffs necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of strict pareto improving tariff and transfer reforms are established we also consider directional tariff reforms such as movements towards the world price vector proportional reductions and reductions of extreme tariffs also discussed is the role of normality of household preferences most of the literature on piecemeal tariff reform in small open economies has been concerned with models in which there is a single household and in which domestic commodity taxes are absent an exception to this is lloyd 1974 who allows the existence of domestic commodity taxes but maintains the assumption of a single household nor does he consider nontraded commodities other than nontaxed fixed factors others such as foster and sonnenschein 1970 bertrand and vanek 1964 bruno 1972 hatta 1977b and fukushima 1979 deal with single household economies with no domestic distortions the purpose of this paper is to consider the question of tariff reform in a very general model of a small open economy the generality of the model allows us to simultaneously deal with three extensions of the current literature the first extension is to allow for nonremovable domestic tax distortions the second is to incorporate nontraded commodities into the model and the third is to explicitly consider a multi household economy by dealing simultaneously with these extensions to the model we are able to provide a general treatment of tariff reform in small open economies and to obtain new and more general results since domestic tax distortions are prevalent in the real world it is important that they be taken into account in any analysis of tariff reform specifically it is of considerable theoretical and policy interest to determine whether the piecemeal tariff policy prescriptions that have been derived in the literature for models

error correction modelling and dynamic specifications as a conduit to outperforming the random walk in exchange rate forecasting the proposition that dynamic exchange rate models can outperform the random walk in out of sample forecasting in the sense that they produce lower mean square errors is examined and disputed by using several dynamic versions of three macroeconomic exchange rate models it is demonstrated that dynamic specifications outperform the corresponding static models but improvement in the forecasting power may not be sufficient for the dynamic models to perform better than the random walk the results are explained by suggesting that any dynamic specification or transformation of the static model leads to the introduction of a lagged dependent variable which in effect is a random walk component the analysis leads to the conclusion that it is implausible to aim at beating the random walk by augmenting a static model with a random walk component

investor protection and corporate governance recent research has documented large differences among countries in ownership concentration in publicly traded firms in the breadth and depth of capital markets in dividend policies and in the access of firms to external finance a common element to the explanations of these differences is how well investors both shareholders and creditors are protected by law from expropriation by the managers and controlling shareholders of firms we describe the differences in laws and the effectiveness of their enforcement across countries discuss the possible origins of these differences summarize their consequences and assess potential strategies of corporate governance reform we argue that the legal approach is a more fruitful way to understand corporate governance and its reform than the conventional distinction between bank centered and market centered financial systems

a utility based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility abstract when estimates of variances are used to make asset allocation decisions underestimates of population variances lead to lower expected utility than equivalent overestimates a utility based criterion is asymmetric unlike standard criteria such as mean squared error to illustrate how to estimate a utility based criterion we use five bilateral weekly dollar exchange rates 1973 1989 and the corresponding pair of eurodeposit rates of homoskedastic garch autoregressive and non parametric models for the conditional variance of each exchange rate garch models tend to produce the highest utility on average a mean squared error criterion also favors garch but not as sharply

why is it so difficult to outperform the random walk an application of the meese rogoff puzzle to stock prices some economists suggest that the meese rogoff puzzle is equally applicable to the stock market in the sense that no model of stock prices can outperform the random walk in out of sample forecasting we argue that this is not a puzzle and that we should expect nothing but this result if forecasting accuracy is measured by the root mean square error rmse and similar metrics that take into account the magnitude of the forecasting error only we demonstrate by using two models for dividend paying and nondividend paying stocks that as price volatility rises the rmse of the random walk rises but the rmse of the model rises even more rapidly making it unlikely for the model to outperform the random walk

the maturing of socially responsible investment a review of the developing link with corporate social responsibility this paper reviews the development of socially responsible investment sri over recent years and highlights the prospects for an increasingly strong connection with the practice of corporate social responsibility the paper argues that not only has sri grown significantly it has also matured in particular it has become an investment philosophy adopted by a growing proportion of large investment institutions this shift in sri from margin to mainstream and the position in which institutional investors find themselves is leading to a new form of sri shareholder pressure although this bears some resemblance to lobbying campaigns which might take advantage of shareholder rights we seek to distinguish it as an important phenomenon in its own right one to which corporate executives are likely to be paying increasing attention in the years to come we further argue that this approach potentially meets some of the earlier ethical criticisms of certain forms of sri but ironically probably owes its existence to those pioneering approaches we conclude with some suggestions for further research to inform discussion of the issues highlighted in the paper

the time variation of risk and return in foreign exchange markets a general equilibrium perspective this article successively introduces variable velocity durability and habit persistence in a standard two country general equilibrium model and explores their effects on the variability of exchange rate changes forward premiums and the foreign exchange risk premium a new feature of the model is that agents make decisions at a weekly frequency and face conditionally heteroskedastic shocks nevertheless even the most complex model fails to deliver sufficiently variable risk premiums without causing forward premiums and exchange rates to be excessively variable unlike previous models the model can roughly match the persistence of forward premiums article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

an economic evaluation of empirical exchange rate models this paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the short horizon predictive ability of economic fundamentals and forward premiums on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing we implement bayesian methods for estimation and ranking of a set of empirical exchange rate models and construct combined forecasts based on bayesian model averaging more importantly we assess the economic value of the in sample and out of sample forecasting power of the empirical models and find two key results 1 a risk averse investor will pay a high performance fee to switch from a dynamic portfolio strategy based on the random walk model to one that conditions on the forward premium with stochastic volatility innovations and 2 strategies based on combined forecasts yield large economic gains over the random walk benchmark these two results are robust to reasonably high transaction costs

full bayesian inference for garch and egarch models a full bayesian analysis of garch and egarch models is proposed consisting of parameter estimation model selection and volatility prediction the bayesian paradigm is implemented via markov chain monte carlo methodologies we provide implementation details and illustrations using the general index of the athens stock exchange

drivers of socially responsible investing a case study of four nordic countries in this study we try to establish what determines the substantial differences in the nordic countries size and composition of socially responsible investing sri we investigate if these differences between denmark finland norway and sweden can be associated with key characteristics in economics finance culture and institutions we find that in particular economic openness the size of the pension industry and cultural values of masculinity femininity and uncertainty avoidance can be associated with the differences in sri in the four countries on basis of these findings we lay foundations for an international theory of sri

banking on currency forecasts how predictable is change in money abstract the paper examines the predictive performance of four structural exchange rate models using both parametric and nonparametric techniques error correction versions of the models are fit so that plausible long run elasticities can be imposed on the fundamental variables of each model a variety of model evaluation statistics are reported our findings confirm that fundamental exchange rate models forecast no better than a random walk model for short term prediction horizons for longer horizons error correction terms can explain exchange rate movements significantly better than a no change forecast for a subset of the models and currencies we consider

slow money in an age of fiduciary capitalism abstract in the era of fiduciary capitalism investors have begun fulfilling non financial goals in order to address the concerns of a broader range of stakeholders socially responsible investors who were part of fringe movements headed by non profit organizations have emerged as powerful fiduciaries with a strong focus on triple bottom line based outcomes the slow money movement which has been spear headed by non profits in the developed world places a strong emphasis on making capital circulate locally especially within agricultural communities slow money investors across the us some of whom are private investment funds and community development financial institutions are striving to generate triple bottom line based outcomes in our study we have discussed how the slow money movement mirrors fiduciary capitalism we have analyzed how slow money investors have expanded the scope of traditional fiduciary obligations five organizations in the us have participated in our research and we developed a seven point taxonomy of slow money to analyze our findings our findings revealed how slow money investors as fiduciary capitalists generate financial social and environmental returns by investing patient capital in agriculture and local enterprises

investing in socially responsible companies is a must for public pension funds because there is no better alternative with assets of over us 1 0 trillion and growing public pension funds in the united states have become a major force in the private sector through their holding of equity positions in large publicly traded corporations more recently these funds have been expanding their investment strategy by considering a corporation s long term risks on issues such as environmental protection sustainability and good corporate citizenship and how these factors impact a company s long term performance conventional wisdom argues that the fiduciary responsibility of the pension funds trustees must be solely focused on their beneficiaries and therefore their investment criteria must be based strictly on narrowly defined financial measures it is also asserted that well established financial measurements of corporate performance already include long term risk assessment through discounted present value of future flow of earnings consequently all other criteria are contrary to the best interest of the pension funds beneficiaries in this paper we assert that contrary to conventional wisdom pension funds and for that matter other mutual funds must be concerned with the long term survival and growth of corporations these measures are generally referred to socially responsible investing sri and when applied to corporations it is termed socially responsible corporate conduct srcc we demonstrate that current measurement of future risk assessment invariably understates and quite often completely overlooks these long term risks because of the inherent bias towards short run on the part of financial intermediaries whose compensation depends greatly on short term results furthermore there is ample evidence to suggest that these intermediaries have been engaging in self serving practices and thus failing in their duties to serve their clients i e pension funds best interests because of their large holdings in the total market as well as individual companies these funds cannot easily divest from poorly performing companies without destabilizing the companies stock and overall markets hence they must opt for a strategy of emphasizing investment criteria that encourage companies to take into account long term aspects of their operations in terms of their impact on environment sustainability and community welfare to name a few we argue that an exclusionary and even a primary focus on short term financial criteria is no longer a viable option it also calls for the pension funds to encourage greater transparency and accountability of the entire corporate sector through improved corporate governance thus socially responsible investing practices are not merely discretionary and desirable activities they are a necessary imperative which both the corporations and public pension funds and other large institutional holders will ignore at serious peril to themselves finally the paper considers some of the recent developments where corporations have been responding to these challenges and how their actions might be strengthened through greater disclosure and transparency of corporate activities it also makes recommendations for the pension funds to support further research in creating new measurement standards that further refine the concept of socially responsible investing as a necessary ingredient of long term corporate survival and growth in the context of a changing economic environmental and socio political dynamic

cointegration as an explanation for the meese rogoff puzzle abstractsome economists suggest that the failure of exchange rate models to outperform the random walk in exchange rate forecasting out of sample can be attributed to failure to take into account cointegration when it is present we attempt to find out if cointegration matters for forecasting accuracy by examining the relation between the stationarity and size of the forecasting error results based on three macroeconomic models of exchange rates do not provide strong support for the proposition that cointegration matters for forecasting accuracy the simulation results show that while stationary errors tend to be smaller than non stationary errors this is not a universal rule irrespective of the presence or absence of cointegration none of the three models can outperform the random walk in out of sample forecasting which means that cointegration cannot solve the meese rogoff puzzle

the monetary model of the exchange rate long run relationships short run dynamics and how to beat a random walk abstract the monetary model is re examined for the sterling dollar exchange rate first it is demonstrated using a multivariate cointegration technique that an unrestricted monetary model is a valid framework for analyzing the long run exchange rate second we find once proper account has been taken of the short run data dynamics that an unrestricted monetary model outperforms the random walk and other models in an out of sample forecasting contest jel f31

meese rogoff redux micro based exchange rate forecasting meese rogoff redux micro based exchange rate forecasting by martin d d evans and richard k lyons this paper compares the true ex ante fore casting performance of a micro based model against both a standard macro model and a random walk in contrast to existing literature which is focused on longer horizon forecasting we examine forecasting over horizons from one day to one month the one month horizon being where micro and macro analysis begin to over lap over our three year forecasting sample we find that the micro based model consistently outperforms both the random walk and the macro model micro based forecasts account for almost 16 percent of the sample variance in monthly spot rate changes these results pro vide a level of empirical validation as yet unat tained by other models the forecasting experiment proposed by richard meese and kenneth rogoff 1983 re mains a benchmark against which exchange rate models are judged their result that structural macro models cannot outperform a naive random walk has proved robust over the decades yet the meese rogoff paper was never about forecasting in the true sense i e using tirrie f information to forecast exchange rates at t 1 b y using concurrent realized values of the forcing variables their regressions were more about concurrent explanation than about ex ante forecasting their only forecast ing element is in their reliance on ex ante data to estimate equation parameters which appro priately penalized models whose estimated pa rameters were unstable tion for the random walk nature of exchange rates is that there exists some unobserved fun damental that itself follows a random walk un observed being important because fundamentals proposed in most macro models do not follow random walks they offer a different explana tion one rooted in the asset approach to ex change rates and the present value relation that follows from it specifically they show that i f fundamentals are 1 1 but not necessarily ran dom walks then as the discount factor in the present value relation approaches 1 the ex change rate will follow a process arbitrarily close to a random walk intuitively given that an 1 1 process can be split into random walk and stationary components a discount factor near 1 means that most all of the weight is placed on fundamentals far into the future ex pectations of which are dominated by the random walk component charles engel and kenneth west 2004 2005 provide a valuable perspective on the forecastability of exchange rates one explana this paper takes the analysis of engel and west as an important reorientation of thinking and brings it to the natural next step specifi cally if there is little room for forecasting based on stationary components of fundamentals then one needs to focus on where all the action is namely exchange rate dynamics that come from expectational surprises though the sur prise part is by definition orthogonal to public information our micro based model shows that there should exist types of nonpublic infor mation that are useful for forecasting this part and where to look for these types of informa tion we then locate data on these types of nonpublic information and test whether they have true ex ante forecasting power we should evans department of economics georgetown uni versity washington dc 20057 and nber lyons haas school of business university of california berkeley c a 94720 1900 and nber we are grateful to ken west for his comments and to the national science foundation for financial support we refrain from using the word news because it has too strong an association with macro information that is public which even in the most careful of event studies explains less than 5 percent of exchange rate variation in total see torben andersen et al 2003

a review article the case against the use of the sum of compensating variations in cost benefit analysis this paper presents a case against the use of the sum of compensating varia tions as a cost benefit test we argue that 1 the ethical judginents implied by the test are not defensible 2 positive sums of compensating variations occur without potential pareto improvements resulting in social preference reversals without simultaneous scitovsky re versals 3 when lump sum transfers are feasible a positive sum of compensating variations is necessary but not sufficient for a potential pareto improvement 4 in order to eliminate preference reversals and intransitivities all households must have almost identical quasi homothetic preferences a condition that is not satisfied in real economies