variable returns to scale in production and patterns of specialization this paper discusses some trade and welfare implications of the two sector model based on increasing returns to scale irs in one industry and decreasing returns to scale drs in the other it has been shown by horst herberg and murray kemp that given homothetic production functions with irs in one industry and drs in the other the production possibilities frontier ppf is strictly concave to the origin near the irs axis and strictly convex to the origin near the drs axis while this result constitutes an important finding and is contrary to the general impression among economists even twelve years after the publication of herberg and kemp s paper no attempt has been made to analyze its implications for welfare and patterns of specialization in this paper i consider a simple twocommodity model with irs in one industry and drs in the other and discuss some interesting implications of variable returns to scale vrs first i demonstrate that in this model if a small open economy specializes completely in production it will do so in the drs commodity and not in the irs commodity as is generally believed second if at a given price ratio an internal production equilibrium exists a welfaremaximizing small open economy will never specialize completely in production even though the ppf exhibits decreasing opportunity costs over a part of its range third given output generated economies and diseconomies of scale welfare maximization for a small country requires a permanent tax subsidy scheme encouraging expansion of the irs industry and contraction of the drs industry finally in a two country model with identical tastes and technology across the countries free trade equilibrium may result in incomplete specialization by the exporter of the irs commodity and complete specialization by the exporter of the drs commodity in the course of the analysis i argue that tinbergen s formulation of frank graham s case for protecting the irs industry is incorrect i then present a possible reformulation of it in section i the basic production model is introduced in section ii the model is analyzed and in section iii it is argued that all the results continue to hold in the multifactor case

the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

mitigating the pro cyclicality of basel ii policy discussions on the recent financial crisis feature widespread calls to address the pro cyclical effects of regulation the main concern is that the new risk sensitive bank capital regulation basel ii may amplify business cycle fluctuations this paper compares the leading alternative procedures that have been proposed to mitigate this problem we estimate a model of the probabilities of default pds of spanish firms during the period 1987 2008 and use the estimated pds to compute the corresponding series of basel ii capital requirements per unit of loans these requirements move significantly along the business cycle ranging from 7 6 in 2006 to 11 9 in 1993 the comparison of the different procedures is based on the criterion of minimizing the root mean square deviations of each adjusted series with respect to the hodrick prescott trend of the original series the results show that the best procedures are either to smooth the input of the basel ii formula by using through the cycle pds or to smooth the output with a multiplier based on gdp growth our discussion concludes that the latter is better in terms of simplicity transparency and consistency with banks risk pricing and risk management systems for the portfolio of spanish commercial and industrial loans and a 45 loss given default lgd the multiplier would amount to a 6 5 surcharge for each standard deviation in gdp growth the surcharge would be significantly higher with cyclically varying lgds rafael repullo jesus saurina and carlos trucharte

loan supply and bank capital a micro macro linkage abstract in the presence of financial frictions banks capital position may constrain their ability to provide loans the banking sector may thus have important feedback effects on the macroeconomy to shed new light on this issue we combine two approaches first we use microeconomic balance sheet data from germany and estimate banks loan supply response to capital changes second we modify the model of gertler and karadi 2011 such that it can be calibrated to the estimated partial equilibrium elasticity of bank loan supply with respect to bank capital although the targeted elasticity is remarkably different from the one in the baseline model banks continue to be an important originator and amplifier of macroeconomic shocks thus combining microeconometric results with macroeconomic modeling provides evidence on the effects of the banking sector on the macroeconomy

how does women s life satisfaction respond to retirement a two stage analysis we quantify the adjustment of women s life satisfaction to retirement as a two stage process the transition to retirement leads to an immediate increase in women s life satisfaction after becoming retired their life satisfaction declines with the duration of retirement

the economics of small business finance the roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle abstract this article examines the economics of financing small business in private equity and debt markets firms are viewed through a financial growth cycle paradigm in which different capital structures are optimal at different points in the cycle we show the sources of small business finance and how capital structure varies with firm size and age the interconnectedness of small firm finance is discussed along with the impact of the macroeconomic environment we also analyze a number of research and policy issues review the literature and suggest topics for future research

prudential regulation and the credit crunch evidence from japan the underlying causes of sharp declines in bank lending during recessions in large developed economies as exemplified by the u s in the early 1990s and japan in the late 1990s are still being debated due to the lack of any convincing identification strategy of the supply side capital lending relationship from lending demand using within bank share of real estate lending in the late 1980s as an instrumental variable for bank capital we find that japanese banks cut back on their lending in response to a large loss of bank capital in fiscal year 1997

how responsive is business capital formation to its user cost an exploration with micro data abstract the response of business capital formation to its user cost is critical to evaluating tax reform deficit reduction and monetary policy evidence for a substantial user cost elasticity however is sparse most evidence has been based on aggregate data although several recent studies with firm level data report substantial effects with a particularly rich micro dataset containing over 26 000 observations this paper explores what can be learned about the user cost elasticity while the results depend to some extent on the specification and econometric technique various diagnostics lead us to prefer a precisely estimated but small elasticity of approximately 0 25 this paper is dedicated to the memory of robert eisner who labored early and ably on uncovering the determinants of investment spending and highlighting the importance of the question found in the title of this paper

taking stock a critical assessment of recent research on inventories empirical and theoretical aspects of inventory behavior became hot topics in the 1950s and early 1960s no one seemed to notice the tension that was developing between the emerging macroeconomic and microeconomic views of inventories macroeconomists routinely thought of inventories as a destabilizing factor yet the prevailing micro theory viewed inventories as a stabilizing factor it was a fascinating question that was barely explored instead somewhat inexplicably interest in inventories dried up as if inventories were of minor economic significance and little intrinsic interest by the early 1980s then economists once again knew something they had known in the 1950s that inventory investment is of first order importance in business cycles but they were also beginning to realize that the standard production smoothing buffer stock model of inventories was in deep trouble this paper focuses on developments since that realization

the role of financial sector competition for monetary policy in this paper we examine the impact of competition in the banking industry on financial market activity in particular we explore this issue in a setting where banks simultaneously insure individuals against liquidity risk and offer loans to promote intertemporal consumption smoothing in addition spatial separation and private information generate a transactions role for money interestingly we demonstrate that the industrial organization of the financial system bears significant implications for the effects of monetary policy under perfect competition higher rates of money growth lead to lower interest rates and a higher volume of lending activity in contrast in a monopoly banking sector money growth restricts the availability of funds and raises the cost of borrowing

the effect of social security on retirement in the early 1970s we analyze detailed longitudinal data on a cohort of males aged 58 67 in 1969 1973 a period of substantial increases in real social security benefits we find the following 1 the accelerating decline in labor force participation of elderly men in 1969 1973 can be explained by the large increase in real social security benefits 2 there is evidence of a liquidity constraint effect for an important subgroup of the elderly 3 the magnitude of this induced retirement effect is large enough that ignoring it can lead to serious underestimation of the fiscal implications of changes in benefit provisions our results are interpreted in the historical context of a particular cohort undergoing major unanticipated transfers of wealth the steady state effects of social security on retirement may not be the same

does outlawing mandatory retirement reduce public pension benefit claim exploiting the 2011 abolishment of the mandatory retirement provision that had allowed employers to force retirement of their 65 or older employees in the uk this paper estimates the effect of out

monetary transmission and bank competition in the emu the introduction of the euro has led to renewed attention for monetary transmission in the european union this special issue of the journal of banking and finance includes papers that contribute to the development of both the theory and empirical applications of the monetary transmission channel that assumes various types of imperfections the issue includes papers that can best be described by the credit view and studies on concentration and competition in the european banking industry this introduction positions the papers in this active field of research c 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

federal home loan bank advances and commercial bank portfolio composition this paper considers the role of federal home loan bank fhlb advances in stabilizing their commercial bank members residential mortgage lending activities our theoretical model shows that using mortgage related membership criteria or requiring mortgage related collateral does not ensure that fhlb advances will be put to use for stabilizing members financing of housing using panel vector autoregression var techniques we estimate recent dynamic responses of u s bank portfolios to fhlb advance shocks bank lending shocks and macroeconomic shocks our empirical findings suggest that fhlb advances are just as likely to fund other types of bank credit as to fund single family mortgages

new evidence on pensions social security and the timing of retirement using a unique dataset that links the economic and demographic information of households with the details of their pension formulas i estimate the combined effect of social security and pension benefits on the probability of retirement in a cross section of the population near retirement age the accrual rate of retirement wealth is shown to be a significant determinant of the probability of retirement simulations of extensions in pension coverage comparable to those that occurred in the early postwar period can account for one fourth of the contemporaneous decline in labor force participation rates 1998 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

the capital crunch neither a borrower nor a lender be the dramatic reduction in the growth rate of bank lending associated with the 1990 91 recession particularly in new england has evoked claims by many observers of a credit crunch however because of the difficulty in determining whether the observed slow credit growth is a demand or supply phenomenon convincing evidence of the practical importance of credit crunches for economic activity remains elusive we overcome this obstacle by examining a cross section of banks in new england that have experienced the same economic downturn effectively controlling for changes in demand we find empirical support for a capital crunch whereby poorly capitalized institutions shrink to satisfy capital requirements this alone is not a sufficient condition for a credit crunch however we find s6me additional evidence that the ca ital crunch may have limited credit availability in new england

market structure and the pass through of the federal funds rate abstract we study the effect of local market bank concentration on business loan originations and on the pass through of the federal funds rate to business loan originations economic theory on the relationship between concentration and the pass through of input prices to quantity or price is ambiguous we find that more concentrated markets have lower business loan originations and experience smaller changes in business loan originations in response to changes in the federal funds rate our results support the idea that market concentration dampens quantity reactions to input price changes

trade factor prices and the gains from trade with increasing returns to scale existing analyses seem to suggest that national increasing returns to scale are not a very useful tool for analysing trade owing to problems such as multiple equilibria and the tendency towards complete specialization the purpose of this paper is to construct a model in which there are in fact determinant relationships among country size the direction of trade the gains from trade and international factor price differences in the model differences in country size determine the direction of trade which in turn determines factor price differences and limits the possible distribution of the gains from trade commerce international prix des facteurs de production et les gains de l change dans un contexte de rendements croissants a l echelle les analyses conventionnelles semblent suggerer que les rendements croissants h l 6chelle au niveau national ne constituent pas une avenue prometteuse dans l analyse du commerce international parce que de tels rendements creent une presomption en faveur de la specialisation complete et conduisent a des situations d 6quilibres multiples le but de ce m6moire est de construire un mod le dans lequel il existe des rapports determinants entre la dimension du pays la direction des 6changes les gains de l echange et les differentiels internationaux entre les prix des facteurs de production dans ce mod le les differences entre les pays en termes de dimension d6terminent la direction du commerce international laquelle d6termine le differentiel entre les prix des facteurs de production et limite l eventail des r6partitions possibles des gains de l echange

do changes in pension incentives affect retirement a longitudinal study of subjective retirement expectations this paper investigates the responsiveness of individuals retirement decisions to forward looking measures of pension accumulations in contrast to previous research we use within person variation in retirement incentives and are able to control for unobserved heterogeneity in tastes for retirement by studying a panel of subjective retirement expectations we confirm that individuals do respond as expected to pension incentives even when we control for individual fixed effects however the magnitude of these responses differs when estimated from models based on within person versus cross sectional variation the inclusion of fixed effects reduces the response by about half

in search of capital crunch supply factors behind the credit slowdown in japan the seeming failure of loose monetary policy to reactivate japan s economy has led some observers to suggest that the usual credit channels through which monetary policy affects the real economy are blocked and this is because of a pervasive shortage of bank capital that has induced a leftward shift in the supply of bank credit this is the so called capital crunch hypothesis this paper finds support for the hypothesis in the bank data for 1997 a year during which the landscape of the japanese financial system underwent some fundamental changes

the effect of a wife s retirement on her husband s mental health this article examines the effect of wives retirement on their husband s mental health in australia by exploiting the exogenous variations in women s retirement induced by the age pension qualifyi

financial in stability supervision and liquidity injections a dynamic general equilibrium approach we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with an heterogeneous banking sector we introduce endogenous default probabilities for both firms and banks and allow for bank regulation and liquidity injection into the interbank market our aim is to understand the interactions between the banking sector and the rest of the economy as well as the importance of supervisory and monetary authorities to restore financial stability the model is calibrated against real us data and used for simulations we show that basel regulation reduces the steady state but improves the resilience of the economy to shocks and that moving from basel i to basel ii is procyclical we also show that liquidity injections relieve financial instability but have ambiguous effects on output fluctuations

the effect of social security on labor supply a cohort analysis of the notch generation this article uses aggregate birth year calendar year level data derived from the current population survey cps to estimate the effect of social security wealth on the labor supply of older men in the 1970s and 1980s the analysis focuses on measuring the impact of the 1977 amendments to the social security act which created a substantial unanticipated reduction in social security wealth for individuals born after 1916 this differential in benefits has become known as the benefit notch results indicate that labor supply continued to decline for the notch babies who received lower social security benefits than earlier cohorts

the monetary transmission mechanism an empirical framework this paper provides an overview of the monetary transmission mechanism describing the impact of changes in monetary policy on real gdp changes in financial market prices including long term interest rates and exchange rates are the main vehicle for the transmission of policy the framework incorporates rational expectations and policy rules it is empirical and appears to fit the facts well

the impact of age pension eligibility age on retirement and program dependence evidence from an australian experiment abstract governments around the world are reforming their social security systems in light of the challenges posed by population aging we study the 1993 australian age pension reform which progressively increased the eligibility age for women from 60 to 65 years we find economically significant responses to the reform an increase in the eligibility age of one year induced a decline in the probability of retirement by 12 to 19 percentage points in addition the reform induced significant program substitution with increases in enrollment in other social insurance programs particularly the disability support pension which effectively functioned as an alternative source of retirement income

risk averse bank managers exogenous shocks portfolio reallocations and market spillovers abstract this paper develops a model of the banking market in which individual banks make decisions concerning both the size and risk characteristics of their portfolios and in which actions of one bank spill over to affect actions of other banks various observed banking market behaviors such as herding credit crunches bank reaction to policy changes etc are explained as optimal bank responses to idiosyncratic or systemic shocks

increasing returns and the gains from trade it is known that gains from trade are positive in the presence of increasing returns to scale if all increasing returns industries expand in the shift from autarky sufficient conditions for gains when some increasing returns industries expand and others contract suffer from the limitations that the production frontier must be convex changes must satisfy a prespecified hierarchical pattern or that total factor supplies must be fixed between equilibria conditions which can not generally be assured this paper develops a necessary and sufficient condition for gains and from it a sufficient condition that does not depend on these restrictions copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

economic determinants of workers retirement decisions the landscape for older workers has changed dramatically in recent decades governments have made cuts to public pension programs private pensions have shifted from defined benefit to defined contribution plans equity and housing markets have been unusually volatile and workers have experienced declining morbidity and mortality at the same time the labor force participation rate for older men and women has been rising over the past two decades implying later retirement are these phenomena related this paper reviews the large and growing body of literature exploring the economic determinants of workers retirement decisions including public and private pensions wealth and savings health and health insurance and labor demand

bank regulation and the credit crunch abstract this study investigates the direct link between regulatory enforcement actions and the shrinkage of bank loans to sectors likely to be bank dependent we partition the shrinkage due to loan supply into the component due to explicit regulatory enforcement actions and that due to a voluntary response by bank management to low capital to asset ratios we find that banks with formal actions shrink at a significantly faster rate than those without even after controlling for differences in capital to asset ratios furthermore much of the reduced lending has been in categories containing primarily loans to bank dependent borrowers

investment and monetary policy in the euro area abstract this paper analyses the effects of a change in monetary policy on firms investment in germany france italy and spain using a data set which provides aggregated balance sheet and profit and loss account data for 17 different industries and three different size classes the main findings are twofold first in each of the four countries a change in the user cost of capital which in turn is affected by interest rates has both statistically and economically significant effects on investment second while the average interest rate on debt is generally higher for small firms than for large firms there is little evidence that the effects of monetary policy on small firms are larger

the role of information and social interactions in retirement plan decisions evidence from a randomized experiment this paper analyzes a randomized experiment to shed light on the role of information and social interactions in employees decisions to enroll in a tax deferred account tda retirement plan within a large university the experiment encouraged a random sample of employees in a subset of departments to attend a benee ts information fair organized by the university by promising a monetary reward for attendance the experiment multiplied by more than e ve the attendance rate of these treated individuals relative to controls and tripled that of untreated individuals within departments where some individuals were treated tda enrollment e ve and eleven months after the fair was signie cantly higher in departments where some individuals were treated than in departments where nobody was treated however the effect on tda enrollment is almost as large for individuals in treated departments who did not receive the encouragement as for those who did we provide three interpretations differential treatment effects social network effects and motivational reward effects to account for these results

economic determinants of workers retirement decisions economic determinants of workers retirement decisions the landscape for older workers has changed dramatically in recent decades governments have made cuts to public pension programs private pensions have shifted from defined benefit to defined contribution plans equity and housing markets have been unusually volatile and workers have experienced declining morbidity and mortality at the same time the labor force participation rate for older men and women has been rising over the past two decades implying later retirement are these phenomena related this paper reviews the large and growing body of literature exploring the economic determinants of workers retirement decisions including public and private pensions wealth and savings health and health insurance and labor demand

conflict generating product price changes the imputed output approach abstract a novel approach to the generalisation of the conflict generating effects of product price changes on household incomes and utilities is developed it is based upon the concepts of household production of goods and complementarities in production between households economy outputs are imputed to households the imputed household outputs may be positive or negative households have an incentive to supply factors to firms if and only if at least one imputed output is negative it is shown that households which are complementary in production are competitive in distribution the results are generalised to economies with increasing returns to scale industries

the effectiveness of non standard monetary policy in addressing liquidity risk during the financial crisis the experiences of the federal reserve and the european central bank abstract a number of studies sought to measure the effects of non standard policy on bank funding markets this paper carries those estimates a step further by looking at the effects of bank funding market stress on the volume of bank lending by separately modeling loan supply and demand we determine how non standard central bank measures affected bank lending by reducing stress in bank funding markets our results suggest that non standard policy measures lowered bank funding volatility in the us and the euro area lower bank funding volatility in turn increased loan supply in both regions contributing to sustained lending activity

future social security entitlements and the retirement decision abstract a critical question for social security policy is how program incentives affect retirement behavior we use the health and retirement survey hrs to examine the impact of social security incentives on male retirement we implement forward looking models whereby individuals consider the incentives to work in all future years we find that forward looking incentive measures for social security are significant determinants of retirement we also find that private pension incentives have roughly similar effects our findings suggest that social security policies that increase the incentives to work at older ages can significantly reduce the labor force exit rate of older workers

procompetitive gains from trade and comparative advantage having made the concepts of pro or anticompetitive output changes precise necessary and sufficient conditions for trade gains are derived under conditions of increasing returns to scale and imperfect competition in a general equilibrium model with any finite number of goods and factors these conditions yield generalizations of the theorems of comparative advantage in goods and implicit factor trade the factor content version of the h o theorem other generalizations can be obtained if one assumes quasihomothetic preferences and that welfare effects are dominated by price rather than income effects copyright 1996 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

capital requirements and bank behavior in the uk are there lessons for international capital standards abstract the financial crisis prompted widespread interest in developing a better understanding of how capital regulation drives bank behavior this paper uses a unique comprehensive database of regulatory capital requirements on all uk banks to examine their effects on capital lending and balance sheet management behavior we find that capital requirements that include firm specific time varying add ons set by supervisors affect banks desired capital ratios and that resulting adjustments to capital and lending depend on the gap between actual and target ratios we use these results to measure the effects of a capital regime that includes features similar to those embedded in the uk framework our results suggest that countercyclical capital requirements may be less effective in slowing credit activity when banks can readily satisfy them with lower quality lower costing capital elements versus higher quality common equity given the size of the uk banking sector and the global nature of many of the largest institutions in the uk banking sector the results have implications for the ongoing debate surrounding the design and calibration of international capital standards

bank capital shocks dynamic effects on securities loans and capital abstract we used quarterly data for individual banks to estimate recent dynamic responses to bank capital shocks while it took bank capital and securities only one year to adjust to capital shocks liabilities and most loan categories took two to three years to complete their adjustments compared with those in the late 1980s capital shocks were twice as large and portfolio responses to capital shocks tended to be more rapid in the early 1990s larger banks adjusted each component of their portfolios faster than smaller banks capital shocks caused banks with capital shortfalls to contract more and more quickly in the 1990s than they had in the 1980s

increasing returns dynamic stability and international trade abstract a simple two country two good model in which economies of scale form the basis of international trade is presented it is shown that the larger country exports the good characterized by increasing returns and imports the good subject to constant returns a key feature of the paper is a comprehensive stability analysis it turns out that a normal output price response is necessary for d stability furthermore the marshall lerner condition must be satisfied in terms of the short run import demand elasticities for local dynamic stability finally if international factor mobility is permitted cross hauling of specific factors may be observed

aching to retire the rise in the full retirement age and its impact on the social security disability rolls abstract the social security amendments of 1983 reduced the generosity of social security retired worker benefits in the u s by increasing the program s full retirement age from 65 to 67 and increasing the penalty for claiming benefits at the early retirement age of 62 these changes were phased in gradually so that individuals born in or before 1937 were unaffected and those born in 1960 or later were fully affected no corresponding changes were made to the program s disabled worker benefits and thus the relative generosity of social security disability insurance ssdi benefits increased in this paper we investigate the effect of the amendments on ssdi enrollment by exploiting variation across birth cohorts in the policy induced reduction in the present value of retired worker benefits our findings indicate that the amendments significantly increased ssdi enrollment since 1983 with an additional 0 6 of men and 0 9 of women between the ages of 45 and 64 receiving ssdi benefits in 2005 as a result of the changes our results further indicate that these effects will continue to increase during the next two decades as those fully exposed to the reduction in retirement benefit generosity reach their fifties and early sixties

what accounts for the variation in retirement wealth among u s households even among households with similar socioeconomic characteristics saving and wealth vary considerably life cycle models attribute this variation to differences in time preference rates risk tolerance exposure to uncertainty relative tastes for work and leisure at advanced ages and income replacement rates these factors have testable implications concerning the relation between accumulated wealth and the shape of the consumption profile using the panel study of income dynamics and the consumer expenditure survey we find little support for these implications the data are instead consistent with rule of thumb mental accounting or hyperbolic discounting theories of wealth accumulation jel di d91 e21

did risk based capital allocate bank credit and cause a credit crunch in the united states this paper examines the reallocation of bank credit from loans to securities in the early 1990s using data on virtually all u s banks from 1979 to 1992 the authors investigate implementation of risk based capital and other regulatory and nonregulatory changes as possible causes of a supply driven credit crunch the main empirical implication of these credit crunch hypotheses that the reallocation of credit would be most associated with low capital high risk banks generally is not consistent with the data much of the reallocation is associated with demand side factors but it is difficult to differentiate cleanly among these factors copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

labor supply effects of the recent social security benefit cuts empirical estimates using cohort discontinuities abstract in response to a crisis in social security financing two decades ago congress implemented an increase in the normal retirement age nra of 2 months per year for cohorts born in 1938 and after these cohorts began reaching retirement age in 2000 this paper studies the effects of these benefit cuts on recent retirement behavior the evidence suggests that the mean retirement age of the affected cohorts has increased by about half as much as the increase in the nra if older workers continue to increase their labor supply in the same way there might be important implications for the estimates of social security trust fund exhaustion that have played such a major role in recent discussions of social security reform

further implications of variable returns to scale abstract among those trade theorists who have studied the implications of variable returns to scale it has been almost standard practice to suppose that the variability of returns in each industry is generated by technical intra industrial externalities in the present paper inter industrial as well as intra industrial externalities are admitted the topology of the set of production possibilities and of the locus of competitive outputs as well as the robustness of several standard trade theorems are examined

monetary transmission via the administered interest rates channel abstract this paper examines the dynamics of administered interest rate changes in response to changes in the benchmark money market rate in singapore our results show that the administered rates adjustment speed differs across both financial institutions and financial products the financial institutions administered lending and deposit rates moreover are more rigid when they are below their equilibrium level than when they are above our finding hence implies that the speed of monetary transmission is not uniform across all sectors of the economy and that a tightening monetary policy takes a longer time to impact the economy than an expansionary monetary policy

bank concentration and retail interest rates abstract the recent wave of mergers in the euro area raises the question whether the increase in concentration has offset the increase in competition in european banking through deregulation we test this question by estimating a simple cournot model of bank pricing we construct country and product specific measures of bank concentration and find that for loans and demand deposits increasing concentration may have resulted in less competitive pricing by banks whereas for savings and time deposits the model is rejected suggesting increases in contestability and or efficiency in these markets finally the paper discusses some implications for tests of the effect of concentration on monetary policy transmission

shocks to bank capital evidence from uk banks at home and away this article assesses how shocks to bank capital may influence a bank s portfolio behaviour using novel evidence from a uk bank panel data set from a period that predates the recent financial crisis focusing on the behaviour of bank loans we extract the dynamic response of a bank to innovations in its capital and in its regulatory capital buffer we find that innovations in a bank s capital in this precrisis sample period were coupled with a loan response that lasted up to 3 years the international presence of uk banks allows us to identify a specific driver of capital shocks in our data independent of bank lending to uk residents specifically we use write offs on loans to nonresidents to instrument bank capital s impact on uk resident lending a fall in capital brought about a significant drop in lending in particular to private nonfinancial corporations pnfc in contrast household lending increased when capital fell which may indicate that in this precrisis period banks substituted into l

recapitalization credit and liquidity this paper documents the characteristics of public recapitalizations of banks undertaken since 2008 and examines their relationship with bank lending the analysis covers the 15 oecd countries whose banking sectors were most severely hit by the crisis and that provided the largest public bailouts relative to their national gross domestic product gdp we show that the design of the interventions varied considerably across banks and countries larger and higher loss absorbing capital injections were targeted at weaker banks and at banks of systemically relevant size when the state of public finances allowed our results encourage theoretical research with respect to non linear and potentially adverse effects of bailouts as well as further investigation into the link between the loss absorbing properties of bank capital and loan growth with respect to bank lending we find that only large recapitalizations and infusions of common equity are associated with higher total regulatory capital ratios and sustained loan growth we find no significant relationship between public capital provisions and interbank lending and challenge the view that local banks increase loan growth relatively more in response to a recapitalization mike mariathasan and ouarda merrouche

new and old models of business investment a comparison of forecasting performance previous empirical evaluations of investment models have focused on the relative in sample fit of various nonstructural models the authors evaluation extends this work along two dimensions first they augment the usual set of models with two euler equations derived explicitly from dynamic optimization under rational expectations one euler equation is typical of those found in the investment literature while the other embeds time to build lags that yield a richer dynamic structure second the authors focus on out of sample forecast performance as the primary criterion of model evaluation their results indicate that the traditional models dominate both euler equations in forecasting investment copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

the causal effect of retirement on health new evidence from australian pension reform the causal effect of retirement on health is studied using the australian 1993 age pension reform to isolate exogenous variation in retirement status using instrumental variable methods we find that retirement has a positive impact on subjective and objective measures of health

the positive theory of production externalities under perfect competition abstract aggregate cost and factor demand functions are used to develop a local envelope function which is applied in a general equilibrium model with production externalities to shed new light on the relationship between the true economy marginal costs and outputs this relationship induces a structure to the relationship between actual prices and outputs by means of the assumption of no factor demand reversals associated with externality effects we also provide generalisations of the stolper samuelson and rybczynski theorems highlighting the role of the externality effects

capital regulation and the macroeconomy empirical evidence and macroprudential policy abstract we present new evidence on the macroeconomic effects of changes in microprudential bank capital requirements using confidential regulatory data from the basel i and ii regimes in the united kingdom our central result is that an increase in capital requirements lowered lending to firms and households reduced aggregate expenditure and raised credit spreads a financial accelerator effect is found to have amplified the macroeconomic responses to shifts in bank credit supply results from a counterfactual experiment that links capital requirements to house prices and mortgage spreads indicate that tighter macroprudential policy would have had a moderating effect on house price and mortgage lending growth in the early 2000s with easier monetary policy acting to offset its contractionary effects on output

micro foundations of external economies the first purpose of this paper is to specify certain microeconomic determinants of external economies and then analyze the consequences of these economies for production and welfare in a simple general equilibrium model the second purpose is to explore the circumstances under which the implied industry production functions are consistent with the ad hoc specifications used in trade theory and growth theory the motivation for the latter exercise is that despite progress in general equilibrium analysis of internal economies these industry production functions allow the author to capture the very powerful analytical advantages of competitive general equilibrium and duality theory