do markets overreact international evidence abstract in this paper using the conrad and kaul s methodology we test for the overreaction hypothesis which maintains that stock prices systematically overshoot and therefore their reversal can be predicted from past performance in seven industrialized countries consistent with the findings of conrad and kaul we see no evidence of overreaction in the us however returns to long term contrarian strategies in other countries seem to be generally significant moreover we find that in the majority of the countries while returns to arbitrage portfolios based on price are higher than those based on size the latter generally outperform the winner loser arbitrage portfolios

contrarian and momentum strategies in germany two traditional methods of managing equity portfolios are investing based on price momentum and value based contrarian investing these strategies may be motivated by a behavioral theory of under and overreaction to news or by empirical research mostly for the nyse that has found persistence in price movements over short horizons and reversion to the mean over longer horizons however the apparent success of these strategies may be due to institutional factors and the mismeasurement of risk or it may result from data mining for these reasons we studied all major german companies listed on the frankfurt stock exchange for the three decades between 1961 and 1991 the dynamics of stock prices in frankfurt are remarkably similar to new york the data suggest that equity prices reflect investor forecasts of company profits that are predictably wrong

on back testing zero investment strategies zero investment strategies typically involve forming a long portfolio in one set of securities and a short portfolio in another with the two identified by the use of some trading rule when back testing such strategies the ex post difference in their abnormal returns represents an unbiased estimate of their economic profitability in perfect markets and thus serves as an indication of market efficiency however regulation t s short selling constraints are a potentially significant imperfection facing retail and institutional investors after development of a procedure that recognizes these constraints in measuring returns the impact of these constraints on economic profitability is analyzed copyright 2000 by university of chicago press

can fat tail create the momentum and reversal we suggest that fat tail variations can cause both short term momentum and long term reversal simultaneously in both the time series and cross sectional returns of securities the fat tail of the

size seasonality and stock market overreaction recent research finds that the prior period s worst stock return performers losers outperform the prior period s best return performers winners in the subsequent period this potential violation of the efficient markets hypothesis is labeled the overreaction phenomenon this paper shows that the tendency for losers to outperform winners is not due to investor overreaction but to the tendency for losers to be smaller sized firms than winners when losers are compared to winners of equal size there is little evidence of any return discrepancy and in periods when winners are smaller than losers winners outperform losers

fundamental analysis and subsequent stock returns abstract this paper re examines the ou and penman 1989 conclusion that fundamental analysis identifies equity values not currently reflected in stock prices and thus systematically predicts abnormal returns their fundamental summary measure pr the estimated probability of an earnings increase also proxies for firm size and capm risk after controlling cross sectional differences in capm beta and firm size no significant incremental predictive ability is attributable to pr the pr measure is interpreted as a proxy for expected return differences rather than as new evidence of a systematic market underreaction to the future earnings signal inherent in current financial statements

time varying risk and long term reversals a re examination of the international evidence long term reversals ltrs have been extensively documented as existing in international markets the predictability of returns opens the question whether investors should continue to diversify across international markets such predictability also has implications for the corporate decision of where and when to raise capital this paper re examines the international evidence for long term contrarian profits using a longer time horizon than all previous studies 81 years of data from 1925 to 2005 and finds that the long term contrarian anomaly disappears when time varying conditional alphas are considered this is true even without transaction costs for the marginal trader conservative transaction costs subsume ltr profits whether returns are risk adjusted or not this suggests that benefits from actual trades on ltrs do not negate a strategy based on diversification although time varying beta has been extensively documented as ineffective in describing ltrs this paper demonstrates that it is important to control for time variation in alpha a full conditional capital asset pricing model captures the ltr premium this suggests that macroeconomic factors are important for understanding ltrs and their associated risk

portfolio serial correlation and nonsynchronous trading common stock portfolios of large heavily traded firms exhibit daily first order serial correlation in excess of what would be expected given the individual security coefficients further this correlation rises as the number of securities in the portfolio increases the direct implication of this finding is that nonsynchronous trading is not the only cause of correlation in daily market indices related implications are also discussed

multivariate tests of the zero beta capm abstract a cross sectional regression test csrt of the capm is developed and its connection to the hotelling t2 test of multivariate statistical analysis is explored algebraic relations between the csrt the likehood ratio test and the langrange multiplier test are derived and a useful small sample bound on the distribution function of the csrt is obtained an application of the csrt suggests that the crsp equally weighted index is inefficient but that the inefficiency is not explained by a firm size effect from february to december

stock return reversal and continuance anomaly new evidence from hong kong using weekly data this article conducts a comprehensive analysis and presents new empirical evidences on the short term stock return reversal and continuance anomaly in the hong kong stock market we confirm that winner stocks behave differently from loser stocks in that the return reversal phenomenon is pervasive within past winner stocks only while past loser stocks tend to show weak return continuance the arbitrage strategy can earn significantly positive contrarian profits especially for small firms and illiquid stocks the anomaly varies across different industries and is also sensitive to the market movement despite the existence of the anomaly our results still in general suggest that the hong kong stock market is weak form efficient because arbitrage trading costs would largely overwhelm the available profits in most cases

short term reaction of stock markets in stressful circumstances abstract in this paper we document the short term stock price behaviour following a period of stock market stress we focus on price behaviour using daily market indexes from 39 stock exchanges over the period 1989 1998 our results are not consistent with the overreaction hypothesis we find positive negative abnormal price performance in the short term window up to 10 days following positive negative price shocks our analysis also highlights differences between developed and emerging markets we show that the post shock abnormal performances are significantly larger for emerging markets but that this momentum behaviour is markedly less in the late 1990s we find the size of the after shock tremors to be related to market liquidity with larger post shock price changes in less liquid markets

nonstationary expected returns abstract recent evidence reveals significant negative serial correlation in aggregate market wide stock returns we extend this result to relative market adjusted returns demonstrating negative serial correlation in five year returns we then test two competing explanations 1 market mispricing and 2 changing expected returns in an efficient market the tests are conducted using the capital asset pricing model to estimate relative returns the evidence suggests that negative serial correlation in relative returns is due almost entirely to variation in relative risks and therefore expected relative returns through time we document substantial relative risk shifts particularly for extreme performing stocks

purchasing power parity for developing and developed countries what can we learn from non stationary panel data models the aim of this paper is to apply recently developed panel cointegration techniques proposed by pedroni 1999 2004 and generalized by banerjee and carrion i silvestre 2006 to examine the robustness of the ppp concept for a sample of 80 developed and developing countries we find that strong ppp is verified for oecd countries and weak ppp for mena countries however in african asian latin american and central and eastern european countries ppp does not seem relevant to characterize the long run behavior of the real exchange rate further investigations indicate that the nature of the exchange rate regime doesn t condition the validity of ppp which is more easily accepted in countries with high than low inflation

friction in the trading process and the estimation of systematic risk abstract this paper considers how estimates of the market model beta parameter can be biased by friction in the trading process information decision and transaction costs that a leads to a distinction between observed and true returns b causes observed returns to be generated asynchronously for a set of interdependent securities and c thereby introduces serial cross correlation into security returns several propositions are derived from which consistent estimators of beta are obtained and the effect of differencing interval length on beta estimates is specified the formulation is contrasted with the related analyses of scholes williams 1977 and dimson 1979

long term market overreaction the effect of low priced stocks conrad and kaul 1993 report that most of de bondt and thaler s 1985 long term overreaction findings can be attributed to a combination of bid ask effects when monthly cumulative average returns cars are used and price rather than prior returns in direct tests we find little difference in test period returns whether cars or buy and hold returns are used and that price has little predictive ability in cross sectional regressions the difference in findings between this study and conrad and kaul s is primarily due to their statistical methodology they confound cross sectional patterns and aggregate time series mean reversion and introduce a survivor bias their procedures increase the influence of price at the expense of prior returns

hypothesis testing with the sharpe and treynor portfolio abstract using the scholes and williams 1977 model consistent estimates of the variances and covariances of security returns under conditions of non synchronous trading are derived the effects of using such corrected estimates on the measurement of portfolio performance are illustrated by assessing the performance of a value and equally weighted portfolio of all the stocks issued under the quebec stock savings plan qssp

misspecification of capital asset pricing this study documents empirical anomalies which suggest that either the simple one period capital asset pricing model capm is misspecified or that capital markets are inefficient in particular portfolios based on firm size or earnings price e p ratios experience average returns systematically different from those predicted by the capm furthermore the abnormal returns persist for at least two years this persistence reduces the likelihood that these results are being generated by a market inefficiency rather the evidence seems to indicate that the equilibrium pricing model is misspecified however the data also reveals that an e p effect does not emerge after returns are controlled for the firm size effect the firm size effect largely subsumes the e p effect thus while the e p anomaly and value anomaly exist when each variable is considered separately the two anomalies seem to be related to the same set of missing factors and these factors appear to be more closely associated with firm size than e p ratios

overreactions in the options market this paper examines the term structure of options implied volatilities using data on s p 100 index options because implied volatility is strongly mean reverting the implied volatility on a longer maturity option should move by less than one percent in response to a one percent move in the implied volatility of a shorter maturity option empirically this elasticity turns out to be larger than suggested by rational expectations theory long maturity options tend to overreact to changes in the implied volatility of short maturity options are investors rational do they behave like bayesian statisticians when it comes to incorporating new information into asset prices proponents of the efficient markets hypothesis would answer this question in the affirmative many others however believe that bayesian rationality is a poor description of investor behavior and that as a consequence asset prices tend to be informationally inefficient one way in which inefficiencies might arise is through the overreactions of traders to the arrival of new information 1 this possibility is raised by experimental and survey findings which indicate that people have a systematic tendency to overemphasize recent data at the expense of other information when making projections 2 the objective of this paper is to search for evidence of such overreactive behavior in a semingly peculiar place the options market options may appear to be unlikely candidates for overreaction because unlike primary securities their prices are closely tied down by arbitrage considerations as black and scholes 1973 demonstrate if stock price volatility is known options prices are completely determined any deviation from the prescribed value implies a riskless profit opportunity however given that volatility is in fact unknown and changing options do retain something of an independent nature not wholly redundant with their underlying stocks options can be thought of as reflecting a speculative market in volatility the implied volatility on a given option obtained by inverting a

the contrarian investment strategy does not work in canadian markets this paper tests the overreaction hypothesis using monthly data for stocks listed on the toronto stock exchange over the 1950 1988 period unlike de bondt and thaler 1985 1987 it finds statistically significant continuation behavior for the next one and two year s for winners and losers and insignificant reversal behavior for winners and losers over longer formation test periods of up to ten years while the systematic risks of the winners decrease significantly over all test periods the systematic risks of the losers increase significantly for only the 12 month formation test periods unlike chan 1988 the only significant change in variance from the formation to test periods occurs for the losers for the 12 month formation test periods the findings are robust for january versus non january and size based portfolios unlike zarowin 1989 1990 the findings are robust for various performance measures specifically market adjusted car and the jensen 1968 and sharpe 1966 portfolio performance measures

a new approach to testing asset pricing models the bilinear paradigm we propose a new approach to estimating and testing asset pricing models in the context of a bilinear paradigm introduced by kruskal 18 this approach is both simple and at the same time quite general as an illustration we apply it to the special case of the arbitrage pricing model where the number of factors is pre specified the data appear to be generally in conflict with a five or seven factor representation of the model used by roll and ross 30 when we consider the number of replications of our test and the large number of observations on which it is performed the frequency with which we reject the three factor apm does not lead us to conclude that this model is unrepresentative of security returns further the rejection of the five and seven factor versions is to be expected if the three factor version is correct the paradigm gives insight into the appropriate specification of the model and suggests that there may be a small number of economy wide factors that affect security returns tests of asset pricing models on the basis of observed stock market data have represented a staple of the financial economics literature of the past twenty years the early work is reviewed in the famous paper by jensen 12 and papers by fama and macbeth 6 rosenberg and marathe 31 and roll and ross 30 there has been a great deal of confusion regarding what testable propositions are implied by these models see discussion in roll 29 in this paper we show that at a minimum all asset pricing models yet proposed imply a simple easily testable hypothesis which we refer to as the bilinear hypothesis while specific models may imply further testable propositions if the bilinear hypothesis is rejected the model is inconsistent with the data and should be rejected our test exploits the fact that the economic content of any equilibrium asset pricing model can be expressed in the form of a potentially refutable constraint on the set of parameters of the process generating security returns this constraint specifies that given a set of security specific characteristics there exists a linear relationship common across securities relating expected returns to these

measuring abnormal performance do stocks overreact abstract a highly controversial issue in financial economies is whether stocks overreact in this paper we find an economically important overreaction effect even after adjusting for size and beta in portfolios formed on the basis of prior five year returns extreme prior losers outperform extreme prior winners by 5 10 per year during the subsequent five years although we find a pronounced january seasonal our evidence suggests that the overreaction effect is distinct from tax loss selling effects interestingly the overreaction effect is substantially stronger for smaller firms than for larger firms returns consistent with the overeaction hypothesis are also observed for short windows around quarterly earnings announcements

corruption and development a review of issues in this paper we start with a discussion of some of the different denotations of the problem of corruption we then consider the ways in which the damaging consequences of corruption operate in a developing economy while not ignoring its possible redeeming features in some cases we pursue the question of why corruption is perceptibly so different in different societies and also persistent finally we examine the feasible policy issues that arise in this context

potential performance and tests of portfolio efficiency abstract the potential performance of an asset set may be obtained by choosing the portfolio proportions to maximize the sharpe 1966 performance measure if a portfolio has a sharpe measure equivalent to the potential performance of the underlying set of assets then it is efficient multivariate statistical procedures for comparing potential performance and testing portfolio efficiency are developed and then evaluated using simulations two likelihood ratio statistics are then used to compare stock and bond indices against sets of 20 and 40 portfolios the procedures are also compared to the gibbons 1982 methodology for testing financial models

winner loser reversals in national stock market indices can they be explained this article examines possible explanations for winner loser reversals in the national stock market indices of 16 countries there is no evidence that loser countries are riskier than winner countries either in terms of standard deviations covariance with the world market or other risk factors or performance in adverse economic states of the world while there is evidence that small markets are subject to larger reversals than large markets perhaps due to some form of market imperfection the reversals are not only a small market phenomenon the apparent anomaly of winner loser reversals in national market indices therefore remains unresolved

the relation between the return interval and betas abstract the size effect is sensitive to the length of the return interval used in estimating betas beta changes with the return interval because an asset s covariance with the market and the market s variance do not change proportionately as the return interval is changed we document beta sensitivity to the return interval evidence from cross sectional regressions of returns on monthly and annual betas is inconsistent with beta changes stemming only from the higher standard errors of the longer interval betas we provide evidence that the size effect becomes statistically insignificant when risk is measured by betas estimated using annual returns

risk aversion uncertain information and market efficiency abstract this paper develops and tests the uncertain information hypothesis as a means of explaining the response of rational risk averse investors to the arrival of unanticipated information the theory predicts that following news of a dramatic financial event both the risk and expected return of the affected companies increase systematically and that prices react more strongly to bad news than good an empirical investigation of over 9000 marketwide and firm specific events produces results consistent with these predictions we conclude that the market reacts to uncertain information in an efficient if not instantaneous manner

a model of nongovernmental organization regulation with an application to uganda we develop a model of regulation of service delivery nongovernmental organizations ngos where future grants are conditional on prior spending of some minimal proportion of current revenue on direct project related expenses such regulation induces some ngos to increase current project spending but imposes wasteful costs of compliance verification on all ngos under a large class of parametric configurations we find that regulation increases total discounted project expenditure over a regime of no regulation when verification costs constitute no more than 15 of initial revenue we characterize the optimal regulatory policy under these configurations we apply our analysis to a large sample of ngos from uganda and find regulation to be beneficial in that context

nonsynchronous security trading and market index autocorrelation the theoretical portfolio autocorrelation due solely to nonsynchronous trading is estimated from a derived model this estimated level is found to be substantially less than that observed empirically the theoretical and empirical relationship between portfolio size and autocorrelation also is investigated the results of this study suggest that other price adjustment delay factors in addition to nonsynchronous trading cause the high autocorrelations present in daily returns on stock index portfolios

risk inflation and the stock market most explanations for the decline in share values over the past two decades have focused on the concurrent increase in inflation this paper considers an alternative explanation a substantial increase in the riskiness of capital investments we show that the variance of firms real gross marginal return on capital has increased significantly increasing the relative riskiness of investors returns on equity and that this can explain a large part of the market decline we also assess the effects of increase in the mean and variance of the inflation rate and a decline in firms expected return on capital this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

outsourcing and optimal nonlinear taxation a note this paper concerns optimal taxation and outsourcing if the government has a direct instrument for taxing outsourcing the policy rules for marginal income taxation remain as in the standard model

predictable patterns after large stock price changes on the tokyo stock exchange this paper extends to japanese stocks recent research on short term stock price adjustment to new information using standard methodologies we find that stock returns of firms included in the nikkei 300 tend to be significantly positive after large price decreases this is similar to the pattern observed for american stocks in other research the pattern remains when returns are adjusted for market movements and exists independently of the october 1987 market break we find little evidence of significant patterns following large stock price increases we also find little evidence that non transaction prices explain the persistent significant returns observed following large price decreases on the tokyo stock exchange we conjecture that broker dealers and tse member firms respond to large price decreases not by trading for their own profit but rather by selectively supplying liquidity to their preferred retail customers we conclude that ordinary investors probably cannot earn economic profits from these statistically significant patterns

red tape and corruption abstract we study the emergence and interaction of red tape and corruption in a principal bureaucrat agent hierarchy the principal is to provide the agent with a unit of a good that involves externalities so that market mechanisms fail to achieve first best red tape produces information but is costly to the agent and is administered by a corrupt bureaucrat first the bureaucrat may extort bribes from the agent in exchange for reducing the amount of red tape second the bureaucrat may take bribes to conceal the information produced through red tape even though the former kind of corruption tends to reduce red tape we show that the equilibrium level of red tape is above the social optimum

are stock price reversals really asymmetric a note abstract one of the enigmatic findings about the stock market overreaction effect is that it is asymmetric we argue that this apparent anomaly may be entirely illusory resulting from the peculiar properties of returns the test period return on a contrarian portfolio is not always a satisfactory measure of the strength of price reversals this also renders interportfolio comparisons about the symmetry of reversals more difficult we develop an alternative measure the reversal coefficient which takes account of this deficiency some empirical corroboration is also provided

nominal wage price rigidity as a rational expectations equilibrium most recent studies of macroeconomic behavior fall into one of two categories the first often called the equilibrium business cycle approach stems from the fundamental contribution of robert e lucas 1972 and related work by thomas sargent and neil wallace 1975 and many others these studies espouse the view that a positive correlation between output and the stock of paper assets can arise if households are unable to identify the source and therefore the permanence of price movements employment and output responses in this view are driven by the intertemporal substitution effect especially the substitution of current leisure for future consumption since cyclical fluctuations in employment are large relative to the corresponding real wage movements substantial wage elasticity of labor supply is required to validate these models the equilibrium approach to business cycles implies certain restrictions on the conduct of monetary policy in particular rational expectations undermine the ability of the monetary authority to influence economic activity in a systematic manner see sargent wallace for an example sticky wages and prices are the cornerstone of an alternative description of macroeconomic behavior rooted vaguely in keynes and more firmly in the dual decision hypothesis of robert clower 1984 this approach studies equilibria with quantity rationing see edmond malinvaud 1977 the rationing story lacks a precise specification of the source of price stickiness offering very little guidance about the eventual causes of price change considerable efforts were made in the 1970 s to fill this lacuna in keynesian macroeconomics beginning with work by martin n baily 1974 and others the implicit contracts literature focused on the incomplete insurability of human capital unable to find insurance against fluctuations in labor income elsewhere workers demand insurance from those best placed to observe labor income their own employers both wage inflexibility and layoffs then can be viewed as an outcome of a joint insurance employment relationship between workers and firms see azariadis 1975 critics like george akerlof and hajime miyazaki 1980 soon discovered that the original contracting models could not produce layoffs without prohibiting severance pay or otherwise limiting the terms of the contract others pointed out that these models were determinedly microeconomic offering few insights into the stickiness of nominal wages or the effectiveness of stabilization policy two quite distinct lines of research developed out of the original implicit contract ideas one focuses on asymmetric information and implementability see the qje 1983 symposium for original work and the review article by oliver hart 1983 as a means of driving a wedge between the ex post marginal rates of substitution of the contractants under some technical assumptions the outcome is involuntary underemployment or unemployment we are most concerned here with the other line of research which sought to fit labor or tdiscussants guillermo calvo columbia university jo anna gray washington state university

evidence on stock market overreaction 1986 evidence on stock market overreaction financial analysts journal vol 42 no 4 pp 74 77

general factor models and the structure of security returns based on markowitz s pioneering study 40 sharpe 56 and lintner 38 advanced the first positivist formulations of the capital asset pricing model capm their models were subsequently refined by mossin 45 fama 15 black 1 and others even though the capm has been studied extensively it has not been empirically validated according to roll 48 the capm cannot be tested in an unambiguous fashion because of a number of intractable measurement and computational difficulties and the joint nature of the hypotheses to be tested

winners and losers a micro level analysis of international outsourcing and wages our paper investigates the link between international outsourcing and wages utilizing a large household panel and combining it with industry level information on industries outsourcing activities from input output tables this approach avoids prob lems such as aggregation bias potential endogeneity bias and poor skill definitions that commonly hamper industry level studies we find that outsourcing has had a marked impact on wages applying two alternative skill classifications we find evidence that a 1 percentage point increase in outsourcing reduced the wage for workers in the lowest skill categories by up to 1 5 while it increased wages for high skilled workers by up to 2 6 this result is robust to a number of different specifications jel classification f16 j31 gagnants et perdants une analyse micro economique de la sous traitance internationale et des salaires ce memoire etudie le lien entre la sous traitance internationale et les salaires a l aide de donnees d un grand panel de menages qu on combine avec des donnees au niveau des industries sur les activites de sous traitance de celles qui en font obtenues des tableaux interindustriels cette approche evite les problemes qui habituellement polluent les etudes au niveau de l industrie biais d agregation biais d endogeneite potentielle mauvaises definitions des habiletes on decouvre que la sous traitance a un effet sur les salaires a l aide de differentes formes de classification des habiletes il appert qu un point de pourcentage d augmentation dans la sous traitance reduit les salaires des travailleurs dans les categories d habilete les plus basses de 1 5 alors qu il accroit les salaires de travailleurs specialises de 2 6 ce resultat est robuste et avere meme quand on utilise diverses specifications

goodwill bazaar ngo competition and giving to development this paper builds a model of competition through fundraising between horizontally differentiated ngos ngos allocate their time resource between working on the project and fundraising which attracts private donations if the market size is fixed the fundraising levels increase with the number of ngos and the free entry equilibrium number of ngos can be larger or smaller than the socially optimal number depending on the efficiency of the fundraising technology if the market size is endogenous and ngos cooperate in attracting new donors fundraising levels decrease with the number of ngos and the free entry equilibrium number of ngos is smaller than the one that maximizes the welfare of donors and beneficiaries if ngos can divert funds for private use multiple equilibria with high diversion and no diversion of funds appear

overreaction in the brazilian stock market abstract the overreaction hypothesis on a new set of data for the brazilian stock market over the period 1970 1989 is investigated both market adjusted returns and the standard sharpe lintner capm adjusted returns are used price reversals in 2 year returns are detected and the results contrast with the u s evidence in that the magnitude of the effect is more pronounced than in the u s the results also suggest that differences in risk as measured by capm betas using the method suggested by chan chan k c 1988 on the contrarian investment strategy journal of business 61 147 163 cannot account for the overreaction effect i also examine the issue of asymmetry versus symmetry in the overreaction effect using the criterion proposed by dissanaike dissanaike g 1992 are stock price reversals really symmetric university of cambridge department of applied economics discussion paper af series no 4 i find evidence that the price reversals are asymmetric

uk unit trust performance 1980 1989 a passive time varying approach abstract this paper indirectly tests the efficient markets hypothesis by analysing the performance of 30 authorised unit trusts from 1980 through 1989 the risk return relationship of the funds is allowed to vary in a generalised manner thus allowing for passive structural change in underlying economic relationships our findings suggest that 21 of the 30 trusts in the sample were able to supply investment opportunities to the individual investor which were superior to a buy and hold strategy

does the stock market overreact to corporate earnings information this paper tests whether the stock market overreacts to extreme earnings by examining firms stock returns over the 36 months subsequent to extreme earnings years while the poorest earners do outperform the best earners the poorest earners are also significantly smaller than the best earners when poor earners are matched with good earners of equal size there is little evidence of differential performance this suggests that size and not investor overreaction to earnings is responsible for the overreaction phenomenon the tendency for prior period losers to outperform prior period winners in the subsequent period recently an intriguing efficient markets anomaly has emerged debondt and thaler 1985 1987 report that equities that experience the lowest highest returns over a prior period 2 5 years in their studies overperform underperform the market in the subsequent period they call this violation of the efficient markets hypothesis the overreaction phenomenon since it suggests that investors overreact in the initial period and subsequently correct themselves 1 debondt and thaler 1987 hypothesize that the reason for the overreaction lies in the market s inefficie nt response to earnings information research has found that the random walk model in which all changes are permanent provides a good description of the time series behavior of firms annual earnings on average 2 the primary exception to the random walk model comes from firms that have experienced extreme good or bad years relative to their normal performance the earnings changes of such outlier firms are temporary i e earnings regress to the mean 3 if market participants incorrectly perceive the

redistributive income taxation under outsourcing and foreign direct investment this paper deals with optimal income taxation under international outsourcing and fdi we show how the joint effect of outsourcing and fdi on the optimal marginal income tax rates depends on whethe

on the computation of returns in tests of the stock market overreaction hypothesis abstract a number of recent studies have attempted to find out whether investors overreact we argue that in many of these studies the method used to compute cumulative returns the arithmetic method is flawed and we show that estimates of portfolio performance can be affected our findings are relevant not only to tests of the overreaction hypothesis but to other areas in finance where the arithmetic method and event study approach are used

optimum taxation with errors in administration abstract the paper compares the welfare levels which can be achieved by two distinct tax regimes lump sum taxation where one attempts to identify individuals and allocate transfers or subsidies on the basis of characteristics and income taxation where characteristics are not observed but personal incomes are measured and taxed where there are no errors in classifying individuals lump sum taxation is superior but where mistakes are made in the allocation of lump sum grants or subsidies income taxation may be more attractive the level of errors where the regimes are equally desirable in terms of social welfare is computed in simple models following that of feldstein 1973 where there is strong aversion to inequality then income taxation becomes preferable at quite small errors in analysing income taxation it is shown that in the feldstein model with endogenous wages the marginal tax rate in optimum income taxation on the more skilled is negative and that on the less skilled is positive in contrast to the standard results see seade 1977 with exogenous wages

self selection and pareto efficient taxation abstract this paper analyses the set of pareto efficient tax structures the formulation of the problem as one of self selection not only shows more clearly the similarity between this problem and a number of other problems such as the optimal pricing of a monopolist which have recently been the subject of extensive research but also allows the derivation of a number of new results we establish i under fairly weak conditions randomization of tax structures is desirable ii if different individuals are not perfect substitutes for one another in production then the general equilibrium effects until now largely ignored in the literature of changes in the tax structure may be dominant in determining the optimal tax structure in particular if the relative wage of high ability and low ability individuals depends on the relative supplies of labor the optimal tax structure entails a negative marginal tax rate on the high ability individuals and a positive marginal tax rate on the low ability individuals the marnitude of which depends on the elasticity of substitution iii if individuals differ in their preferences pareto efficient taxation may entail negative marginal tax rates for high incomes while iv if wage income is stochastic the marginal tax rate at the upper end may be 100 our analysis thus makes clear that the main qualitative properties of the optimal tax structure to which earlier studies called attention are not robust to these attempts to make the theory more realistic