the renewables portfolio standard in texas an early assessment texas has rapidly emerged as one of the leading wind power markets in the united states this development can be largely traced to a well designed and carefully implemented renewables portfolio standard rps the rps is a new policy mechanism that has received increasing attention as an attractive approach to support renewable power generation though replacing existing renewable energy policies with an as of yet untested approach in the rps is risky early experience from texas suggests that an rps can effectively spur renewables development and encourage competition among renewable energy producers initial rps targets in texas were well exceeded by the end of 2001 with 915 mw of wind installed in that year alone rps compliance costs appear negligible with new wind projects reportedly contracted for well under 3 us cent k wh in part as a result of a 1 7 us cent kwh production tax credit an outstanding wind resource and an rps that is sizable enough to drive project economies of scale obliged retail suppliers have been willing to enter into long term contracts with renewable generators reducing important risks for both the developer and the retail supplier finally the country s first comprehensive renewable energy certificate program has been put into place to monitor and track rps compliance c 2002 published by elsevier science ltd less

investment spikes new facts and a general equilibrium exploration abstract using plant level data from chile and the u s we show that investment spikes are highly pro cyclical so much so that changes in the number of establishments undergoing investment spikes the extensive margin account for the bulk of variation in aggregate investment the number of establishments undergoing investment spikes also has independent predictive power for aggregate investment even controlling for past investment and sales we re calibrate the thomas 2002 is lumpy investment relevant for the business cycle journal of political economy cx 508 534 model that includes fixed costs of investing so that it assigns a prominent role to extensive adjustment the recalibrated model has different properties than the standard rbc model for some shocks

interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy a critical analysis of china s policy approach to renewable energies this paper analyzes china s policy approach to renewable energies and assesses how effectively china has met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy first we briefly discuss the interactions between these two policies then we outline china s key renewable energy and renewable industrial policies and find that china s government has well recognized the need for this policy interaction after that we study the achievements and problems in china s wind and solar pv sector during 2005 2012 and argue that china s policy approach to renewable energies has placed priority first on developing a renewable energy manufacturing industry and only second on renewable energy itself and it has not effectively met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy lastly we make an in depth analysis of the three ideas underlying this policy approach that is the green development idea the low carbon leadership idea and indigenous innovation idea we conclude that chinas policy approach to renewable energies needs to enhance the interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy the paper contributes to a deeper understanding of china s policy strategy toward renewable energies

cost competitive incentives for wind energy development in china institutional dynamics and policy changes abstract this paper presents an overview of the development of wind power in china the factors that affect the directions of wind power development are analyzed it examines the economics of windfarm development and compares it with conventional energy sources the major constraints in wind technology development and defects of the current policies are discussed it points out that wind power development should be subject to rational policy change and institutional adjustment it discusses the incentive mechanisms and institutional frameworks for future development particular importance is attributed to market incentives for wind power to reach the objectives of industrialization and commercialization a number of cost competitive incentive measures and policies are recommended i introducing market based mechanisms through standard power purchase agreement ii establishing effective investment policies and regulations to attract private investment iii promoting localization of wind turbine production iv adjusting tax and subsidy policies and v reforming governmental institutions to make clear rules and responsibilities for policymaking and enhancing communication coordination between relevant government agencies in order to formulate uniform and effective policies

sentiments and aggregate demand fluctuations we formalize the keynesian insight that aggregate demand driven by sentiments can generate output fluctuations under rational expectations when production decisions must be made under imperfect information about demand optimal decisions based on sentiments can generate stochastic self fulfilling rational expectations equilibria in standard economies without persistent informational frictions externalities nonconvexities or strategic complementarities in production the models we consider are deliberately simple but could serve as benchmarks for more complicated equilibrium models with additional features

global wind power development economics and policies abstract existing literature indicates that theoretically the earth s wind energy supply potential significantly exceeds global energy demand yet only 2 3 of global electricity demand is currently derived from wind power despite 27 annual growth in wind generating capacity over the last 17 years more than 95 of total current wind power capacity is installed in the developed countries plus china and india our analysis shows that the economic competitiveness of wind power varies at wider range across countries or locations a climate change damage cost of us 20 tco 2 imposed to fossil fuels would make onshore wind competitive to all fossil fuels for power generation however the same would not happen to offshore wind with few exceptions even if the damage cost is increased to us 100 tco 2 to overcome a large number of technical financial institutional market and other barriers to wind power many countries have employed various policy instruments including capital subsidies tax incentives tradable energy certificates feed in tariffs grid access guarantees and mandatory standards besides climate change mitigation policies such as the clean development mechanism have played a pivotal role in promoting wind power despite these policies intermittency the main technical constraint could remain as the major challenge to the future growth of wind power

public policy supports and export performance of bioenergy technologies a dynamic panel approach abstract this study investigates the effects of public policy supports on the export performance of bioenergy technologies it uses panel data from 18 countries from the 1992 to 2008 period panel unit root and cointegration tests are applied taking into account the results of structural break tests for each time series and testing for the presence in the panel of cross sectional dependence time series data on public supports and exports are integrated and cointegrated the results of dynamic ordinary least squares indicate that in the long term public r d expenditures have a positive effect on the exports the contribution of bioenergy to the total energy supply has a negative effect on the exports and gdp has a positive effect on the exports the contribution of bioenergy to total energy supply responds to deviations in the previous period from the long term equilibrium additionally blundell bond system generalized methods of moments estimations are made to determine dynamic causality in a panel vector error correction mechanism setting evidence of a positive strong and short term relationship from exports to r d expenditures and of a positive short term causality from exports to the contribution of bioenergy to total energy supply is found a positive strong bidirectional relationship between gdp and exports is also uncovered there is a positive strong bidirectional and short term relationship between gdp and the contribution of bioenergy to total energy supply finally some policy implications based on the results of this study are offered

government funded renewable energy innovation in china abstract with the rapid development of the economy china is facing pressures caused by traditional energy deficiency and environmental pollution in recent years which has forced the chinese government to start to pay attention to the development and utilization of renewable energy re this article based on data and statistics available up to 2008 studies features of china s re technology innovation and problems thereof it finds that national science and technology programs are the main aspect of china s re technology innovation and most of r d funds for the re technology come from china s three main national programs besides the overall expenditures on re technology innovation constitute only a small proportion of china s total domestic r d funding and seem not enough this paper also finds that compared with research and development stages of re technology the demonstration and diffusion of re technology in china are given less attention and thus are relatively less sufficient furthermore influenced by china s traditional scientific research system there appears lack of sufficient incentives and opportunities for private sectors to fully participate in re technology innovation because most national programs are undertaken by universities or research institutes

the role of transnational dimensions in emerging economy technological innovation systems for clean tech the technological innovation system tis framework and its system functions have become a popular analytical tool for the study of clean tech innovation there is increasing attention for the role of emerging economies in global clean tech innovation but the applicability of tis to emerging economies cases is not entirely straightforward a key issue is the limited geographical considerations in particular transnational dimensions in tis whereas earlier perspectives on innovation in emerging economies have stressed the role of such transnational dimensions this paper elaborates transnational tis actor networks and institutions categorizes these in relation to tis functions and describes their potential to induce or block tis development in emerging economies we draw on insights from the perspectives of national learning systems international technology transfer and global production networks for this purpose we conclude that the potential effects of these transnational dimensions may be accurately grasped by the existing list of system functions lending credence to its further application of the tis framework on emerging economy case studies policy makers in emerging economies should recognize these transnational dimensions and seek to optimize their potential effect on domestic tis development taking in to consideration a realistic assessment of its role in the global tis

coordinating regime switches the canonical model of strategic complementarities between individual actions which exhibits multiple equilibria under perfect information is extended with heterogeneous agents and imperfect information agents observe their own cost of action and the history of the levels of aggregate activity the distribution of individual characteristics evolves through a random process and individuals are rational bayesians under plausible conditions there is a unique equilibrium with phases of high and low activity and random switches applications may be found in macroeconomics and revolutions

constrained after college student loans and early career occupational choices abstract in the early 2000s a highly selective university introduced a no loans policy under which the loan component of financial aid awards was replaced with grants we use this natural experiment to identify the causal effect of student debt on employment outcomes in the standard life cycle model young people make optimal educational investment decisions if they are able to finance these investments by borrowing against future earnings the presence of debt has only income effects on investment decisions we find that debt causes graduates to choose substantially higher salary jobs and reduces the probability that students choose low paid public interest jobs we also find some evidence that debt affects students academic decisions during college our estimates suggest that recent college graduates are not life cycle agents two potential explanations are that young workers are credit constrained or that they are averse to holding debt we find suggestive evidence that debt reduces students donations to the institution in the years after they graduate and increases the likelihood that a graduate will default on a pledge made during her senior year we argue this result is more likely consistent with credit constraints than with debt aversion

prospects for global market expansion of china s wind turbine manufacturing industry abstract emerging economies are increasingly contributing to global innovation including clean tech innovation the development of china s wind power sector has often been used to illustrate this point china s domestic wind power market is the largest in the world and is largely supplied by domestic manufacturers competition for market share in the domestic market may pressure firms to innovate which consecutively improves prospects for global expansion this paper reviews developments in china s domestic wind turbine market using the technological innovation system framework we analyze the pressure to innovate arising from market competition and assess the prospects for global expansion of chinese wind turbine manufacturers we conclude that domestic customers are not pressured or incentivized to perform with respect to power output such that turbine manufacturers are not pressured to perform with respect to turbine efficiency or maintenance needs pressure to innovate is further reduced by formalizing connections between wind farm developers and turbine manufacturers chinese turbine manufacturers cannot yet compete with leading global brands in technological leadership the prospects for exports are improved however by the preferential supply of project financing from institutional investors such as the china development bank from chinese utilities that seek global expansion and from the manufacturers themselves

financial fragility and the exchange rate regime abstract we study financial fragility exchange rate crises and monetary policy in a model of an open economy with diamond dybvig banks the banking system the exchange rate regime and central bank credit policy are seen as parts of a mechanism intended to maximize social welfare if the mechanism fails banking crises and speculative attacks on the currency become possible we compare currency boards fixed rates and flexible rates with and without a lender of last resort a currency board cannot implement a social optimum in addition it allows bank runs to occur a fixed exchange rate system may implement the social optimum but is more prone to bank runs and exchange rate crises than a currency board a flexible rate system implements the social optimum and eliminates runs provided that the exchange rate and credit policies of the central bank are appropriately designed journal of economic literature classification numbers f3 e5 g2

on the causal dynamics between emissions nuclear energy renewable energy and economic growth this paper examines the causal relationship between co2 emissions nuclear energy consumption renewable energy consumption and economic growth for a group of 19 developed and developing countries for the period 1984 2007 using a panel error correction model the long run estimates indicate that there is a statistically significant negative association between nuclear energy consumption and emissions but a statistically significant positive relationship between emissions and renewable energy consumption the results from the panel granger causality tests suggest that in the short run nuclear energy consumption plays an important role in reducing co2 emissions whereas renewable energy consumption does not contribute to reductions in emissions this may be due to the lack of adequate storage technology to overcome intermittent supply problems as a result electricity producers have to rely on emission generating energy sources to meet peak load demand

changing sunshine analyzing the dynamics of solar electricity policies in the global context abstract although solar costs have been dropping in recent years solar power is still more expensive than conventional and other renewable energy options and in most applications solar power still needs continuing government policy support however the need to achieve multiple objectives and ensure sufficient political support for solar power makes it difficult for policy makers to design an optimal solar power policy the dynamic and uncertain nature of the solar industry combined with the constraints imposed by broader economic political and social conditions further complicates the task of policy making in this paper we present a framework to critically analyze the objectives behind different country policies how factors such as macro economic conditions and development paradigms affect the policy outcomes and finally how these outcomes affect the overall cost reduction of solar energy we find that while the extent of cost reduction through creation of large demand remains to be seen it is essential for governments to provide adequate support for leapfrog rd d and exploit real comparative advantages across countries for effective solar cost reduction policy makers need to optimally design their policies by balancing national objectives and paying capacity with the global objective of solar power cost reduction in order to realize its full potential

understanding china s renewable energy technology exports abstract china became a major player in renewable energy re technology during the 2000s chinese solar pv cell and module makers quickly dominated global sales in that industry while the country s wind turbine producers became poised for significant exports after capturing their rapidly growing home market in countries like the us chinese re technology strength has been met with claims of excessive governmental support of exports this study examines to what extent chinese firms solar pv and wind technology successes have been enabled by policy supports and whether those policies appear to have been driven by broader goals versus re export promotion per se the evidence suggests that governmental policy toward both wind and solar originated in a push for export competitive chinese companies but the specifics differed substantially due to the particular requirements of building technological capabilities in each export readiness necessitated substantial support for domestic installation of wind but not solar pv power the findings also suggest that as the decade of the 2000s progressed environmental goals played an increasing role alongside export promotion in motivating and shaping chinese re technology policies

analysis and recommendations for onshore wind power policies in china abstract recently china s wind power industry is challenged by many problems such as wind power integration and wind curtailment which seriously hinders the development of onshore wind power since china s policy has a direct and significant influence on wind power industry it is vital to analyze and evaluate published policies this paper explores in detail 134 china s onshore wind power policies from 2005 to 2015 so as to provide analytical support for future formulation and implementation of wind power policy based on policy summary from equipment manufacturing industry wind farms and power grid industry this paper evaluates the policies from the perspective of overall plan support policy and policy implementation using fitting method game theory and empirical analysis the results indicate that china s wind policy is gradually becoming perfected for example there are more reasonable objectives and improved support policies however many problems remain to be solved like unreasonable planning imperfect support policies immature trading systems and uncoordinated actions among interest related parties furthermore combined with international experiences suggestions on improving china s wind power policy are proposed from seven aspects

local demand pull policy and energy innovation evidence from the solar photovoltaic market in china abstract market demand is an important driver for inducing innovation with many empirical studies supporting the demand induced innovation hypothesis critiques of such studies however emphasize that new empirical evidence that can address existing empirical challenges is needed furthermore existing literature disagrees about whether the locus of demand pull policy matters in this paper we use empirical evidence from the distributed solar photovoltaic pv market in china to address the following questions 1 is there evidence of demand induced innovation 2 does the effect of local demand pull policy differ from the effect of non local demand pull policy on demand induced innovation to address these questions we develop and analyze an original database of pv balance of system bos patents in the distributed pv market filed between 2005 and 2014 in china our results support the demand induced innovation hypothesis and suggest that only local demand significantly induces pv bos innovations in the distributed pv market in china the different effects of local demand and non local demand emphasize the importance of local markets and local policies lending some support to bottom up approaches to clean energy governance

do deployment policies pick technologies by not picking applications a simulation of investment decisions in technologies with multiple applications abstract the role of deployment policies that aim to foster technological change has grown considerably especially in the fields of energy and climate however recent research has shown that the adoption of deployment policies carries the potential of locking in the technology that is most cost effective at the point of policy introduction but may be inefficient in the long term the present paper contributes to the emerging literature on the role of deployment policies in creating path dependency and eventually technology lock in while previous studies focused on the relationship between lock in and the technology specificity of deployment policies this paper introduces a new factor the existence of multiple applications for a technology we argue that this factor is highly relevant for technological lock in and should be considered by policy makers to support our argument we simulate the competition among four stationary battery technologies across energy system applications in an investment simulation model this simulation shows that the degree of competition among technologies differs strongly across applications which corresponds with a highly varying lock in probability hence selecting applications in deployment policies very likely corresponds to selecting technologies we discuss the implications of these results for both policy makers and for the academic debate on deployment policies and technological lock in as well as on technology assessment and governance more generally based on the notion that policies can have different technology specificity levels we develop the idea of the application specificity of policies and provide examples of currently enacted deployment policies that vary in terms of their technology and application specificity

unique equilibrium in a model of self fulfilling currency attacks even though self fulfilling currency attacks lead to multiple equilibria when fundamentals are common knowledge we demonstrate the uniqueness of equilibrium when speculators face a small amount of noise in their signals about the fundamentals this unique equilibrium depends not only on the fundamentals but also on financial variables such as the quantity of hot money in circulation and the costs of speculative trading in contrast to multiple equilibrium models our model allows analysis of policy proposals directed at curtailing currency attacks

renewable energy and the environment in south africa a way forward the need to mitigate the adverse environmental impacts of fossil fuel usage the volatility of fuel prices and enhancement of national energy security have largely driven a phenomenal growth around the world in renewable energy re generation particularly grid connected over the past two decades the necessity to apply policy support instruments to promote the dissemination of these technologies is now a universally accepted norm different countries and societies depending on the prevailing socio economic environment draft and apply their policy frameworks differently and debates abound as to which mechanisms should have been most suitable under which circumstance most of these debates however assume the existence of an intrinsic political environment in favour of the process in south africa the current political environment is not very conducive to the development of a sustainable re industry this paper explores some of the anomalies and barriers and suggests possible options for a way forward to a viable re industry in the country

when demand creates its own supply saving traps the mechanism by which aggregate supply creates the income that generates its matching demand called say s law may not work in a general equilibrium with decentralized markets and savings in bonds or money full employment is an equilibrium but convergence to that state is slow a self fullling precautionary motive

who matters in coordination problems we consider a common investment project that is vulnerable to a self fullling coordination failure and hence is strategically risky based on their private information agents who have heterogeneous investment incentives form expectations or sentiments about the project s outcome we nd that the sum of these sentiments is constant across dierent strategy proles and it is independent of the distribution of incentives as a result we can think of sentiment as a scarce resource divided up among the dierent payo types applying this nding we show that agents who benet little from the project s success have a large impact on the coordination process the agents with small benets invest only if their sentiment towards the project is large per unit investment cost as the average sentiment is constant a subsidy decreasing the investment costs of these agents will free up a large amount of sentiment provoking a large impact on the whole economy intuitively these agents insensitive to the project s outcome and hence to the actions of others are inuential because they modify their

expectations learning and business cycle fluctuations this paper explores an alternative theory based on learning dynamics in the con text of an otherwise standard stochastic growth model we consider an environment in which households and firms have an incomplete model of the macroeconomy knowing only their own objectives constraints and beliefs agents are optimizing have a completely specified belief system but do not know the equilibrium map ping between primitive disturbances the aggregate state of the economy and mar ket clearing prices by extrapolating from historical patterns in observed data they approximate this mapping to forecast variables that are exogenous to their decision problems such as the rental rate of capital and the real wage this belief structure has the property that beliefs affect the true data generating process of the economy which in turn affects belief formation the economy is therefore self referential shifts in beliefs about future returns to labor and capital affect current market clear ing prices which in turn can reinforce beliefs in this environment current prices can become less informative about future economic conditions generating fluctuations in real activity this kind of mechanism driving business cycle fluctuations is found in early writ ings on macroeconomic dynamics for example alfred c pigou 1927 on page 122 writes

understanding cross national trends in high tech renewable power equipment exports to the united states we track us imports of advanced technology wind and solar power generation equipment from a panel of countries during 1989 2010 and examine the determining factors including country size sector specific us fdi outflow and domestic wind and solar power generation differentiating between the core high tech and the balance of system equipment we find us imports of both categories have grown at significantly higher rate from the relatively poorer countries and particularly china and india larger countries are found to be exporting significantly more and us fdi is found to play a significant positive role in the exports of high tech equipment for the poor countries for the core wind and solar high tech equipment we find domestic renewable power generation of the exporting countries also played a significant positive role

analysis of the effectiveness of national renewable energy policies a case of photovoltaic policies abstract although fossil fuels are the main sources of power generation they are losing their advantages because of their limitations and environmental and economic concerns as an alternative the development of renewable energy technologies is one of the important strategies therefore governments have been encouraging the deployment of renewable energy resources however there are gaps between achievements and targets as most of the national renewable energy development policies are formulated in the entire country equally the outputs and achievements are different depending on the geographical characteristics social and economic capabilities of the regions the purpose of the present study is the analysis and the evaluation of the effectiveness of the equal national renewable energy policy in the different regions of a country this research focuses on the idea that whether the codification of energy policies according to the local circumstances of each region can result in a greater efficiency of such policies an innovative framework is presented to categorize the government policies based on the geographical technical and socio economic indicators to examine the presented framework it is implemented as a case study

china s overseas investment in the energy resources sector its scale drivers challenges and implications abstract since 2005 china has greatly enhanced its presence in the global landscape of outward foreign direct investment ofdi the total volume of china s ofdi has exceeded 200 billion in the past five years the number will further rise as china looks for outlets to spend its 3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves china s emergence as a global direct investor entails a number of consequences which are yet to be understood this study seeks to shed light on how corporate china extends its reaches overseas what are the policy drivers and who are the key decision makers from the perspective of the energy resources sector the goal is to better understand how to reap the financial benefits of corporate china s marching into the global marketplace

chinese investment in the eu renewable energy sector motives synergies and policy implications abstract this paper addresses three questions how have trade and investment in wind and solar sectors evolved between the eu and china in recent years is there a link between rising trade conflicts and trade and investment trends and what wider motivations and synergies can be identified in chinese investments in the eu s re sector to address these questions we analyze trade and investment data as well as qualitative data including information from media and company reports large increases in trade and investment were followed by rapid falls since 2012 13 trade tensions have not led to increases in investment rather the inverse we find that chinese investment in these two sectors is very concentrated in germany the key motivation for investment is market seeking although r d is also important especially for wind most investments are greenfield a preference that has persisted over time our qualitative analysis of several key acquisitions indicates that technology integration and the consolidation of capacities across the supply chain were key motivations in most of the cases studied we conclude with some policy orientations

optimal financial crises empirical evidence suggests that banking panics are related to the business cycle and are not simply the result of sunspots panics occur when depositors perceive that the returns on bank assets are going to be unusually low we develop a simple model of this in this setting bank runs can be first best efficient they allow efficient risk sharing between early and late withdrawing depositors and they allow banks to hold efficient portfolios however if costly runs or markets for risky assets are introduced central bank intervention of the right kind can lead to a pareto improvement in welfare from the earliest times banks have been plagued by the problem of bank runs in which many or all of the bank s depositors attempt to withdraw their funds simultaneously because banks issue liquid liabilities in the form of deposit contracts but invest in illiquid assets in the form of loans they are vulnerable to runs that can lead to closure and liquidation a financial crisis or banking panic occurs when depositors at many or all of the banks in a region or a country attempt to withdraw their funds simultaneously prior to the twentieth century banking panics occurred frequently in europe and the united states panics were generally regarded as a bad thing and the development of central banks to eliminate panics and ensure financial stability has been an important feature of the history of financial systems it has been a long and involved process the first cerntral bank the bank of sweden was established more than 300 years ago the bank of england played an especially important role in the development of effective stabilization policies in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries by the end of the nineteenth century banking panics had been eliminated in europe the last true panic in england was the overend gurney company crisis of 1866

wind turbine manufacturing in china a review abstract domestic wind turbine manufacturing sector in china has experienced development stages starting from scratch to mass production during the 11th fyp period 2006 2010 the main goal of wind power policy in china is to promote the commercialization of wind power by large scale deployment of wind farms this goal has been realized to a great extent and now the cost of wind power generation is nearly comparable to coal fired power generation in china the industry policy which devotes to mass production of domestic wind turbines is also largely successful the purpose of the paper is to provide an overview on wind turbine manufacturing sector in china the policy evolution in different stages achievements and challenges pertinent to the sector are addressed in the paper key findings are that the misleading industry policy which provides strong incentive to blind entrance and competition for scale and price and restrains innovation as well is the key obstacle for the sustainable development of the sector deficient technology standard and qualification system and the misplaced franchise bidding system also indulge vicious competition and oversupply creating a level playground for all turbine supplies providing strong incentive to innovative manufacturers establishing thorough and practicable standard and qualification system and fine tuning the directive of the franchise bidding system towards technology and service are the primary policy implications proposed by our study

indeterminacy and increasing returns abstract we investigate properties of the one sector growth model with increasing returns under two organizational structures capable of reconciling the existence of aggregate increasing returns with competitive behavior by firms the first involves input externalities the second involves monopolistic competition we show for parameters in close accord with recent literature on real business cycles that the model displays an indeterminate steady state that can be exploited to generate a model of business fluctuations driven by self fulfilling beliefs in our first class of models growth is generated by exogenous increases in factor productivity in the second class the marginal product of capital is large enough for endogenous growth journal of economic literature classification numbers e00 e3 o40

policies to accelerate the growth of offshore wind energy sector in india abstract india s power generation capacity needs to be augmented to support the growing demands for electricity india which has predominantly used fossil fuels to power its generators need to make a switch to clean energy fuels but renewable sources form a miniscule portion 26 gw 12 of india s overall installed power capacity 210 gw there is no contribution from offshore wind farms to the energy basket for india as there is no policy framework to encourage the development of offshore wind farms several european countries have tapped the offshore wind energy potential to reduce their dependence on adopted by these countries to identify the core components 21 of them of robust policy intervention a detailed questionnaire was administered to 181 stakeholders of wind energy in india to seek their feedback on these building blocks these core components variables in research parlance are then subjected to factor analysis to understand the underlying structure of the variables the factor analysis logically reduces these 21 variables into five factors government support fiscal and quota based incentives availability of local expertise capital for investments and building an enabling r d ecosystem which are then fed into a logistic regression model as independent variables to predict the probability of growth of offshore wind energy dependent variable in the country the logistic regression model gives the weight the impact of these independent variables in influencing the growth of offshore wind energy in india it emerges that government support fiscal and quota based incentives and building an enabling r d ecosystem have a much higher impact on the growth of offshore wind energy for india this paper fills the gap of absence of an empirically tested framework on offshore wind energy policy for india

joint r d in low carbon technology development in china a case study of the wind turbine manufacturing industry abstract china faces the dual challenges of climate change and increased energy demand these challenges in turn increase the demand for wind energy development along with rapid growth in manufacturing capacity chinese companies have aspired to increase their innovation capacity in order to enhance their competitiveness in the market joint research and development r d is an attractive path for chinese companies striving to advance their r d capacity this paper examines joint r d between chinese wind turbine manufacturing companies and foreign design firms assessing the performance of joint r d activities in china using the structure conduct performance scp framework the study found that joint r d has improved chinese companies technical capacity human resources and financial growth however the effect on chinese companies innovation capacity is still limited because of unequal technical capacities of the two sides in collaboration as well as their preference for augmenting profits rather than technical capacity current joint r d mode is only the extension of licensing mode in wind turbine manufacturing industry

fiscal policy in an unemployment crisis this paper shows that large scal multipliers arise naturally from equilibrium unemployment dynamics in response to a shock that brings the economy into a liquidity trap an expansion in government spending increases output and causes a fall in the unemployment rate since movements in unemployment are persistent the eects of current spending linger into the future leading to an enduring rise in income as an enduring rise in income boosts private demand even a temporary increase in government spending sets in motion a virtuous employment spending spiral with a large associated multiplier this transmission mechanism contrasts with the conventional view in which scal policy may be ecacious only under a prolonged and committed rise in government spending which engineers a spiral of increasing ination

student debt effects on financial well being research and policy implications student debt effects on financial well being reviewing the data regarding effects of student debt on students financial outcomes following college whether successful graduation or premature exit makes clear that there is a price to pay for having to borrow money to go to college indebted college graduates have lower net worth less home equity and compromised ability to accumulate assets as compared to their peers with the same level of education but no student debt they may also experience poorer educational outcomes with independent effects on earning power and then later wealth accumulation especially given the relationship between initial household wealth and children s later educational outcomes these findings about the post college financial outcomes of indebted students and graduates raise the specter of ongoing sustained and cross generational perpetuation of societal divides in the united states higher education is valued not just as a good in itself but also as a means to the end of greater economic security and the primary lever for economic mobility evaluating student loans through this lens underscores the long term volatile and often hidden effects of student loan dependence and raises the stakes for consideration of alternative approaches to higher education finance

costly search and recruiting a labor market model with costly search and recruiting is constructed it incorporates many features found in other models and provides new insights into the effects of externalities and transaction costs the model possesses a continuum of equilibria some of which may be pareto ranked with different rates of unemployment despite the multiplicity of equilibria comparative statics results are obtained copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

value generation of future csp projects in north africa this paper discusses the value generation potential for local and international industry in different development scenarios of the concentrating solar power csp market in north africa until 2030 it analyzes the economic impact resulting from the participation of north african and european companies during construction and operation of csp plants the assessment is based on a self developed solar technologies market development model stmd that includes economic and technical requirements and constraints for the creation of a local csp market in depth interviews with industry stakeholders provide specific input validate the calculations and complement the quantitative model results and conclusions long term potential for locally generated revenues from csp plant construction are modeled and lead to a share of local revenues of up to 60 potential market size of solar power plants in north africa could reach total revenues of 120 billion euros and thus demand for components and services contribute to national gross domestic products significantly recommendations are given for regional industry cooperation and policy actions for the support of local and international csp industry in north africa in order to improve the investment environment and growth of renewable energies in the region

assessing and managing regulatory risk in renewable energy contrasts between canada and the united states abstact a challenge for energy firms when considering new investments is to balance expected financial gains against potential risks however while investment opportunities in different jurisdictions are often straightforward to identify the policy or regulatory risks for investors are more difficult to accurately ascertain here i provide a novel conceptual framework for how firms can assess regulatory risk that focuses on the institutional processes governing policy making risks are lower and policies will subsequently be more stable in jurisdictions where regulatory agencies have greater autonomy from politicians and where policies are formulated through more rigid policy making processes the contrasting development patterns of renewable energy policies in ontario and texas offer support for the framework i further develop strategies for how firms can successfully manage regulatory risks in different types of environment

energy security in china a quantitative analysis and policy implications abstract this study aims to examine how china s energy security has changed over 30 years of reform and the opening period it constructs a 4 as quantitative evaluation framework the availability of energy resources the applicability of technology the acceptability by society and the affordability of energy resources the quantitative results show that china s energy security was at its best during the sixth fyp period 1981 1985 but then deteriorated until it hit higher levels between 1995 and 2005 however it was still lower than the level reached during the sixth fyp period during the eleventh fyp period 2006 2010 the energy security situation deteriorated again differences in policy priority over the study period appear to affect the country s energy security status this study suggests that china needs to develop renewable energy resources on a large scale and pay more attention to emissions control to reverse the downward trend in energy security

envisaging feed in tariffs for solar photovoltaic electricity european lessons for canada abstract while it is widely agreed that support schemes need to be put in place to promote the use of renewable electricity there is less consensus as to what are the best kinds of strategies to use what is attracting increasing attention in canada is a system of renewable portfolio standards in this all power suppliers are under an obligation to ensure that a certain percentage of the electricity they generate is from renewable resources they can either generate that electricity themselves or purchase green certificates from those who have used renewables to generate electricity recent experience from europe however suggests that a whole hearted commitment to this single strategy could be premature and potentially damaging for the development of all kinds of renewable electricity in canada solar photovoltaics included on the other side of the atlantic ocean the use of so called feed in tariffs that is an obligation for utilities to purchase at a set price the electricity generated by any renewable energy resource is widely credited with accelerating the development of renewable electricity in many countries the purpose of this article is to reflect upon this european experience with feed in tariffs to stimulate discussions regarding what promise they might hold for the development of solar photovoltaic electricity in canada the article is divided into three main sections in the first section policies to promote renewable electricity presently in place in different parts of canada are reviewed attention is then focused more specifically in the second section of this article upon feed in tariffs after defining and describing this alternative system experiences in the countries of the european union are reviewed the main strengths and weaknesses of feed in tariffs in the european experience are also examined the focus then moves back to canada in the third section of the article in this a system of feed in tariffs is proposed for the province of ontario in order to provide just one example of the kind of support that could be forthcoming

between fragmented authoritarianism and policy coordination creating a chinese market for wind energy abstract the chinese grid connected wind energy sector has undergone a number of fundamental changes during its 20 years of existence the scope of this article is to track the reforms of the energy bureaucracy and its policy approach on the one hand and changes in wind energy installations on the other by comparing three historically distinct phases of wind energy in china it is shown how policy reforms have changed largely from a state of fragmented authoritarianism towards policy coordination in the initial phase 1986 1993 wind energy was expanding very slowly with disjointed policy making and in the incremental phase 1994 1999 the energy authorities were in dispute over the strategy and launched conflicting policy initiatives with poor results in wind energy output the latest coordinated phase 2000 2006 however developed a coherent renewable energy agenda and policy regime for the wind power sector it is found that this phase with coordinated market regulations and incentives has helped give birth to a take off in chinese wind energy installations and substantial cost reductions although the latter is threatening the profitability of wind farms the article contributes to the academic debate over the role of policy making in renewable energy development and argues that china should continue and improve the coordination of regulations and incentives

booms and banking crises banking crises are rare events that break out in the midst of credit intensive booms and bring about deep and long lasting recessions this paper presents a textbook dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to explain these phenomena the model features a nontrivial banking sector where bank heterogeneity gives rise to an interbank market moral hazard and asymmetric information in this market may lead to sudden market freezes banking crises credit crunches and severe financial recessions those recessions follow credit booms and are not necessarily triggered by large exogenous adverse shocks

wind farm investment risks under uncertain cdm benefit in china abstract china has set an ambitious target to increase its wind power capacity by 35 gw from 2007 to 2020 the country s hunger for clean power provides great opportunities for wind energy investors however risks from china s uncertain electricity market regulation and an uncertain energy policy framework mainly due to uncertain clean development mechanism cdm benefits prevent foreign investors from investing in china s wind energy the objectives of this paper are to 1 quantify wind energy investment risk premiums in an uncertain international energy policy context and 2 evaluate the impact of uncertain cdm benefits on the net present values of wind power projects with four scenarios this study simulates possible prices of certified emissions reductions cers from wind power projects project net present values npvs have been calculated the project risk premiums are drawn from different and uncertain cer prices our key findings show that uncertain cdm benefits will significantly affect the project npvs this paper concludes that the chinese government needs revising its tariff incentives most likely by introducing fixed feed in tariffs fits and re examining its cdm granting policy and its wind project tax rates to facilitate wind power development and enable china to achieve its wind energy target

incomplete information higher order beliefs and price inertia the question that motivates this paper is how incomplete information impacts the response of prices to nominal shocks our baseline model is a variant of the calvo model in which firms observe the underlying nominal shocks with noise in this model the response of prices is pinned down by three parameters the precision of available information about the nominal shock the frequency of price adjustment and the degree of strategic complementarity in pricing decisions this result synthesizes the broader lessons of the pertinent literature however this synthesis provides only a partial view of the role of incomplete information once one allows for more general information structures than those used in previous work one cannot quantify the degree of price inertia without data on the dynamics of higher order beliefs or of the agents forecasts of inflation we highlight this with three extensions of our baseline model all of which break the tight connection between the precision of information and higher order beliefs featured in previous work

fiscal policy in an expectations driven liquidity trap we study the effects of fiscal policy interventions in a liquidity trap in a model with nominal rigidities and an interest rate rule in a liquidity trap caused by a self fulfilling state of low confidence higher government spending has deflationary effects that reduce the spending multiplier when the zero lower bound is binding instead cuts in marginal labor tax rates are inflationary and become more expansionary when the zero lower bound is binding these findings contradict popular views about the effects of fiscal policy in a liquidity trap

expectations and the timing of neighborhood change abstract we study the role of expectations when agents have a preference for segregation and households face moving frictions in a fixed environment there are multiple equilibria agents expectations determine whether an ethnic transition occurs however the outcome is unique if there is a deterministic trend that gradually makes the neighborhood more appealing to the outside group it is also unique if the relative payoff from living in the neighborhood is subject to small shocks in both cases the insiders must leave at the first possible moment when the outsiders would outbid them if an immediate ethnic transition were expected

renewable energy gathers steam in south africa abstract south africa s renewable energy independent power producers procurement programme the rei4p is an extensive initiative to install 17 8 gw of electricity generation capacity from renewables wind solar biomass biogas and hydropower over the period 2012 2030 although at the outset the rei4p seemed an expensive option designed only to deflect criticism of south africa s high carbon footprint and excessive dependence on coal based electricity generation the escalating costs of the latter the rapidly falling costs of photovoltaic and wind power and the increasingly competitive bidding process of the rei4p have changed this prospect at the conclusion of round three the weighted cost of energy has reached a 23 discount to the cost of new coal based generation and a 28 discount to global renewable energy prices the bidders commitments to local employment creation have similarly increased from 11 to 18 jobs mw the programme is now well placed to deliver on a broad range of objectives including regional development and black economic empowerment however maximum benefit from the rei4p will not be secured without some revision to aspects of the bidding and procurement process more specifically the local content provisions need to be tightened to drive higher levels of local manufacturing

lessons learned in france and quebec regarding financial and legal mechanisms to develop renewable energy a hybrid model as an acceptable solution for onshore wind abstract this article shows that the unfavorable context of emergence as well as neo corporatism limited the weight of wind energy in france and quebec and delayed the project development and the wind industry as a whole indeed the level of political will to wind energy development in both jurisdictions is fluctuating and characterized by a lack of continuity in policy or regulatory instruments the efficiency of the pricing mechanisms depends on its political design while the french feed in tariff is inefficient in terms of installed capacity and is deemed too expensive by opponents the first two calls for tenders in quebec fare quite well on that front however they are perceived as unacceptable due to the multinational companies involved and the implantation of large scale wind farms in inhabited areas the third community call for tender while generally better accepted locally is poorly regarded among the cooperative movement and at the national level because of the competition with the municipal sector and higher costs to society in both cases a hybrid pricing model would achieve a better balance between costs to society and local development thus promoting social acceptance through a greater diversity in ownership types and wind farms size

policies and market factors driving wind power development in the united states abstract in the united states there has been substantial recent growth in wind energy generating capacity with growth averaging 24 percent annually during the past five years about 1700 mw of wind energy capacity was installed in 2001 while another 410 mw became operational in 2002 during 2003 development activity has remained strong with an estimated 1600 mw of capacity installed with this growth an increasing number of states are experiencing investment in wind energy projects currently about half of all states host at least one wind power project this paper explores the key factors at play in the 12 states in which a substantial amount of wind energy capacity has been developed or planned some of the factors that are examined include policy drivers such as renewable portfolio standards rps federal and state financial incentives as well as market drivers such as consumer demand for green power natural gas price volatility and wholesale market rules

monopolistic competition and the effects of aggregate demand how important is monopolistic competition to an understanding of the effects of aggregate demand on output we ask the question at three levels can monopolistic competition by itself explain why aggregate demand movements affect output can it together with other imperfections generate effects of aggregate demand in a way that perfect competition cannot if so can it give an accurate account of the response of the economy to aggregate demand movements the answers are no yes and yes

the perils of taylor rules abstract since john taylor s 1993 carnegie rochester conf ser publ policy39 195 214 seminal paper a large literature has argued that active interest rate feedback rules that is rules that respond to increases in inflation with a more than one for one increase in the nominal interest rate are stabilizing in this paper we argue that once the zero bound on nominal interest rates is taken into account active interest rate feedback rules can easily lead to unexpected consequences specifically we show that even if the steady state at which monetary policy is active is locally the unique equilibrium typically there exist an infinite number of equilibrium trajectories originating arbitrarily close to that steady state that converge to a liquidity trap that is a steady state in which the nominal interest rate is near zero and inflation is possibly negative journal of economic literature classification numbers e52 e31 e63

the critical role of informed political direction for advancing technology the case of swedish marine energy marine energy technologies can contribute to meeting sustainability challenges but they are still immature and dependent on public support this paper employs the technological innovation systems tis framework to analyze the development and diffusion of swedish marine energy up until 2014 while there were promising device developers relevant industrial capabilities and world class research the system suffered from weaknesses in several important innovation processes finally the analysis identifies the lack of informed political direction as a critical blocking factor and highlights its connection to domestic market potential

dynamic debt runs we develop a dynamic model of debt runs on a rm which invests in an illiquid asset by rolling over staggered short term debt contracts i e dierent contracts mature at dierent times we derive a unique threshold equilibrium in which creditors coordinate their asynchronous rollover decisions based on the rm s publicly observable and time varying fundamental the coordination problem ampli es the creditors concerns about the rm s future rollover risk created by its time varying fundamental and causes each maturing creditor to run ahead of others even when the current fundamental is substantially higher than its liability our model provides a set of implications on the roles played by volatility illiquidity and debt maturity in driving debt runs as well as on rms capital adequacy standards and credit risk

shopping externalities and self fulfilling unemployment fluctuations we propose a novel theory of self fulfilling fluctuations in the labor market a firm employing an additional worker generates positive externalities on other firms because employed workers have more income to spend and have less time to shop for low prices than unemployed workers we quantify these shopping externalities and show that they are sufficiently strong to create s complementarities in the employment decisions of different firms and to generate multiple rational expectations equilibria equilibria differ with respect to agents rational expectations about future unemployment we show that negative shocks to agents expectations lead to fluctuations in vacancies unemployment labor productivity and the stock market that closely resemble those observed in the us during the great recession

savings and wealth accumulation measurement influences and institutions savings and wealth accumulation type main savings and wealth accumulation are important dimensions of policy and research debates this special issue comprises a collection of survey articles on topical issues ranging from the effects of access to credit the rise of islamic finance and sovereign wealth funds the measurement of wealth inequality and genuine savings the distribution of wealth across generations and retirement savings

alternatives to coal and candles wind power in china china is in a unique position to be able to exploit her vast wind resources to satisfy both the rapidly growing energy demand which fuels her economy as well as needs of approximately 72 million people who live in rural areas and have no access to conventional electricity services china mainly through the e orts of the inner mongolia autonomous region has already successfully disseminated over 150 000 small scale wind electric generators which power households in rural areas through a well coordinated combination of local research and development technology transfer industry support end user incentives and an infrastructure for information dissemination and technical training in this paper we review china s utilization of wind energy and discuss how it can be increased for both rural electri cation and the rapidly growing power sector we nd that novel approaches in technical implementation of wind power use may help to better meet china s needs use of hybrid systems may help to provide higher quality more reliable power for rural households and villages than is currently provided through wind only systems grid connected wind power which currently is more costly and less reliable than coal power can become cost competitive and more reliable through local mass production of wind turbines combined with storage systems we examine governmental support through policy infrastructure development and nancial incentives that have fostered the successes of dissemination of small scale wind turbines and also the support or lack thereof that has hindered commercial development of large scale wind power we nd that a better policy and regulatory framework is the most important measure that china can take to increase the use of this indigenous clean resource 2000 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

a corporate balance sheet approach to currency crises this paper presents a general equilibrium currency crisis model of the third generation in which the possibility of currency crises is driven by the interplay between private firms credit constraints and nominal price rigidities despite our emphasis on microfoundations the model remains sufficiently simple that the policy analysis can be conducted graphically the analysis hinges on four main features i ex post deviations from purchasing power parity ii credit constraints a la bernanke gertler iii foreign currency borrowing by domestic firms iv a competitive banking sector lending to firms and holding reserves and a monetary policy conducted either through open market operations or short term lending facilities we derive sufficient conditions for the existence of a sunspot equilibrium with currency crises we show that an interest rate increase intended to support the currency in a crisis may not be effective but that a relaxation of short term lending facilities can make this policy effective by attenuating the rise in interest rates relevant to firms

confidence crashes and animal spirits this article is an attempt to reformulate what i take to be two key insights from keyness general theory keynes 1936 the first is that there is something profoundly different about the labour market from most other markets in the economy the second is that the beliefs of participants in the asset markets have an independent influence on economic activity in the language of modern dynamic general equilibrium theory we would say that there is a continuum of labour market equilibria and that beliefs about the value of the stock market select an equilibrium the general theory contains many ideas some of which are internally inconsistent and keynes did not try to reconcile his theory with walrasian economics that task was carried out by a group of interpreters including hansen 1936 and hicks 1937 the current dominant paradigm new keynesian economics originated with the third edition of samuelson s 1955 undergraduate textbook in which he introduced the idea of the neoclassical synthesis according to this doctrine the economy is keynesian in the short run but classical in the long run the short run is defined as the period over which not all prices have had time to adjust to their walrasian levels this article introduces a different interpretation of the key ideas from the general theory 1 although my work is inspired by keynesian economics this article is not about the history of thought i offer a way of formulating the idea that market economies are not inherently self stabilising without assuming that prices or wages are prevented from adjusting to their equilibrium levels by some kind of friction instead i claim that high persistent unemployment is a potentially permanent feature of a market economy in a steady state equilibrium

review of china s wind power firms internationalization status quo determinants prospects and policy implications abstract in recent years an increasing number of chinese wind power firms have been going international in search of global market for development channels by employing qualitative research and case study methods this paper examines the export scale and markets of china s wind turbines the market entry modes and location choices of china s outward foreign direct investment fdi in the wind power sector identifies the determinants and prospects of chinese wind firms internationalization as well as provides policy implications it is found that chinese wind power firms has chosen to internationalize very differently from the uppsala model in that the exports and fdi of chinese wind power firms both took place around 2008 and the exports and fdi of chinese wind power firms are closely linked the determinants of chinese wind firms internationalization are the competitive advantages of leading chinese wind firms and the intensified domestic market competition followed by chinese government support for internationalization and the attractive overseas market the prospects of chinese wind firms internationalization are bright but challenging drawn on this analysis conclusions and three policy implications are provided at the end of the paper this paper contributes to the study of china s wind power sector from a new perspective

political and institutional analysis of the successes and failures of china s wind power policy this paper identifies and explains how political and institutional factors have determined the relative successes and failures of china s wind power policy over the period 2005 2011 it finds that china has made significant progress in pursuing its wind power policy in terms of cumulative installed capacity wind turbine manufacturing industry development and wind turbine cost and argues that these achievements can be attributed to the political motives and institutional arrangements of the chinese government as well as to institutional changes on the other hand the paper finds that there are two prominent policy failures namely the low proportion of grid connected capacity and the rising trend of wind turbine incidents these have undermined the efficiency and effectiveness of china s wind power program the paper holds that the institutional sources for the first policy failure lies in the preference for setting wind power development targets in terms of installed capacity rather than generation and in coordination problems while the second policy failure lies in the lack of state technical codes for wind power integration and the unfair competition from the large state owned power companies the paper contributes to the academic literature on the political and institutional roles in china s wind power policy

a theory of demand shocks this paper presents a model of business cycles driven by shocks to consumer expectations regarding aggregate productivity agents are hit by heterogeneous productivity shocks they observe their own productivity and a noisy public signal regarding aggregate productivity the public signal gives rise to noise shocks which have the features of aggregate demand shocks they increase output employment and inflation in the short run and have no effects in the long run numerical examples suggest that the model can generate sizable equilibrium dsge models of the business cycle include a large number of shocks to technol ogy monetary policy preferences etc but typically do not include expectational shocks as independent drivers of short run fluctuations 1 this paper explores the idea of expectation driven cycles looking at a model where technology determines equilibrium output in the long run and consumers receive noisy signals about technology in the short run the presence of noisy signals produces expectational errors this paper studies the role of these expectational errors in gener ating volatility at business cycle frequencies the model is based on two ingredients first consumers take time to recognize permanent changes in aggregate fundamentals although they may have good information on the current state of the individual firm or sector where they operate they have only limited information regarding the long run determinants of aggregate activity second consumers have access to public information that is relevant to estimate long run productivity this includes news about technological innovations publicly released macroeconomic and sectoral statistics financial market prices and public statements by policy makers however these signals provide only a noisy forecast of the long run effects of technological innovations this opens the door to noise shocks which induce consumers to temporarily overestimate or underestimate the productive capacity of the economy

an affinity to commons model of public support for environmental energy policy abstract as atmospheric co 2 continues to rise above 450 ppm policymakers struggle with uncertainty concerning predictors of citizen support for environmental energy policies eeps and preferences for their design topics which have received limited attention in empirical literature we present an original model of policy support based on citizens affinity to commons pathways by which individuals enjoy natural public goods that in turn shape preferences between alternative policy mechanisms we evaluate this model using a survey of southern california electricity customers with results indicating the model s utility in predicting public support of eep stronger community ties are associated with preferences for pull type subsidies whereas stronger connections to natural commons are linked to support for both pull and push type sanctions findings have implications for coalition building as advocates may engender support for green energy policy by framing sanctions as protecting natural commons and framing subsidies either in this same way and or as producing benefits for communities

savings and wealth accumulation measurement influences and institutions savings and wealth accumulation are important dimensions of policy and research debates this special issue comprises a collection of survey articles on topical issues ranging from the effects of access to credit the rise of islamic finance and sovereign wealth funds the measurement of wealth inequality and genuine savings the distribution of wealth across generations and retirement savings

enabling frameworks for low carbon technology transfer to small emerging economies analysis of ten case studies in chile abstract technology transfer is crucial to reduce the carbon intensity of developing countries enabling frameworks need to be in place to allow foreign technologies to flow to be absorbed and to bring about technological change in the recipient country this paper contributes to identifying these enabling factors by analysing 10 case studies of low carbon technology transfer processes based in chile our findings show the importance of strong economic and institutional fundamentals a sound knowledge base a sizable and stable demand and a functioning local industry policy recommendations are derived to improve the penetration of foreign low carbon technologies in developing countries focusing on the particularities of small and medium emerging economies

multiple expectational equilibria under monopolistic competition this paper shows that a monopolistically competitive economy with real investment can have multiple rational expectations equilibria one is associated with entrepreneurs optimistic expectations about future demand another with entrepreneurs pessimism it also shows that an optimistic expectational equilibrium pareto dominates a pessimistic equilibrium an investment subsidy can be beneficial both by reducing the original underinvestment distortion and by changing firms expectations from pessimistic to optimistic the most important assumption is increasing returns to scale and monopolistic competition makes increasing returns consistent with each producer s optimization

dynamic pricing and imperfect common knowledge abstract introducing private information into the dynamic pricing decision of firms by adding an idiosyncratic component to marginal cost can help explain two stylised facts about price changes aggregate inflation responds gradually and with inertia to shocks at the same time as individual price changes can be large the inertial behaviour of inflation is driven by privately informed firms strategically herding on the public information contained in the observations of lagged aggregate variables the model also matches the average duration between price changes found in the data and it nests the standard new keynesian phillips curve as a special case to solve the model the paper derives an algorithm for solving a class of dynamic models with higher order expectations

to what extent does wind power deployment affect vested interests a case study of the northeast china grid abstract china s wind power is in an embarrassing state along with its dramatic development since 2005 its curtailment ratio has been rising although this could be attributed to both physical and institutional factors it is the institutional obstacles mainly resulting from the adjustment difficulties of interests distribution that have exercised a greater impact the stakeholders relating to wind power integration are thermal power companies grid companies and local governments the extent to which wind power deployment affects these vested interests determines the core institutional obstacles to be addressed mainly based on quantitative and case analyses we argue that currently wind deployment in china has a little impact on the interests of thermal companies moderate impact on the interests of grid companies and great impact on local governments we recommend that it is crucial to elevate the role of environmental protection and renewable energy increase while de emphasize the role of economic growth in the evaluation of local governments performance as well as provide incentives for grid companies to attend more to their social responsibilities rather than their scale expansion and revenue growth

dynamic coordination and the optimal stimulus policies this article studies stimulus policies in a simple macroeconomic model featuring a dynamic coordination problem that arises from demand externalities and fixed costs of investment in times of low economic activity firms face low demand and hence have lower incentives for investing which reinforces their low demand expectations in a benchmark case with no shocks the economy might get trapped in a low output regime and a social planner would be particularly keen to incentivise investment at times of low economic activity however this result vanishes once shocks are considered

mobilizing private finance for low carbon innovation a systematic review of barriers and solutions this paper analyses the field of innovation studies regarding barriers to low carbon innovation and consequences for finance investment and divestment and contributes to a more holistic understanding of the underlying mechanisms a combination of technological barriers combined with economic barriers institutional and political barriers contribute to sub optimal low carbon investment all along the innovation cycle policy makers need to take a systemic approach to enable the redirection of diverse private financial sources instruments range from cutting dirty r d subsidies and support for clean technology innovation and diffusion levelling the institutional playing field and making risks of high carbon and low carbon technologies transparent to providing a consistent but adaptive long term transition strategy this would allow financiers to gradually shift their investments away from high carbon mainstream markets and scale low carbon technology niche markets however financiers also need to sharpen their competencies with regard to new clean technologies and markets

fostering a renewable energy technology industry an international comparison of wind industry policy support mechanisms this article examines the importance of national and sub national policies in supporting the development of successful global wind turbine manufacturing companies we explore the motivations behind establishing a local wind power industry and the paths that different countries have taken to develop indigenous large wind turbine manufacturing industries within their borders this is done through a cross country comparison of the policy support mechanisms that have been employed to directly and indirectly promote wind technology manufacturing in 12 countries we find that in many instances there is a clear relationship between a manufacturer s success in its home country market and its eventual success in the global wind power market whether new wind turbine manufacturing entrants are able to succeed will likely depend in part on the utilization of their turbines in their own domestic market which in turn will be influenced by the annual size and stability of that market consequently policies that support a sizable stable market for wind power in conjunction with policies that specifically provide incentives for wind power technology to be manufactured locally are most likely to result in the establishment of an internationally competitive wind industry

dynamics of currency crises with asset market frictions abstract this paper presents a dynamic model of currency crises with frictions by construction a speculative attack is not an instantaneous event but takes a little time to deplete the country s reserves and in the event of an attack agents are uncertain about whether they will be able to act before the devaluation comes the currency will be overvalued ripe for attack for a long time before an attack takes place a discrete and sizable devaluation will occur small changes in fundamentals may trigger an attack the model brings insights about the dynamics of currency crises and the effects of some key policy variables

real business cycles and the animal spirits hypothesis abstract we calibrate a quantitative equilibrium macroeconomic model with an aggregate technology that is subject to increasing returns and show that this model may display fluctuations at business cycle frequencies even when there are no shocks to the fundamentals of the economy these fluctuations are due to the self fulfilling beliefs of investors which we call animal spirits we compare the impulse response functions predicted by our model and by two other more standard models with a four variable vector autoregression on u s data our animal spirits economy is the most successful of the three at matching broad features of the dynamic responses in the data journal of economic literature classification numbers e00 e3 e32

energy policymaking in denmark implications for global energy security and sustainability denmark is arguably the most energy secure and sustainable country in the organization of economic cooperation and development oecd the country has reduced its dependence on foreign sources of energy to zero and become self sufficient in its own energy production and use offering important lessons for other nations around the world this study explores the core of denmark s successful approach a commitment to energy efficiency prolonged taxes on energy fuels electricity and carbon dioxide and incentives for combined heat and power chp and wind turbines through these commitments the study shows how denmark transitioned from being almost 100 percent dependent on imported fuels such as oil and coal for their power plants in 1970 to becoming a net exporter of fuels and electricity today the country leads the world in terms of exportation of wind energy technology with a hold on roughly one third of the world market for wind turbines it was able to phase out the use of virtually all oil fired power plants in less than five years and implemented a progressive moratorium on future coal fired power plants in the 1990s their most recent strategy seeks to achieve 30 percent of total energy supply from renewable energy by 2025

non convex costs and capital utilization a study of production scheduling at automobile assembly plants i study detailed data from eleven automobile assembly plants these data display considerable cross plant heterogeneity in production scheduling to explain the observed heterogeneity i solve a dynamic programming model when desired production is below the plant s minimum e cient scale non convexities induce production bunching the plant uses less than full capital utilization on average and production is more volatile than sales when desired production is above the plant s minimum e cient scale the plant operates in a convex region of the cost curve in this case it uses high levels of capital utilization and production is less volatile than sales 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classixcation e23 d21 l23

constructing china s wind energy innovation system abstract the rapid rise of china as the largest wind energy market worldwide with several global leaders in turbine manufacturing received much attention from both scholarly and policy analytical work however little attention has been given to the innovation activities of the chinese wind industry in our paper we aim to address this gap based on second hand sources and over 50 personal interviews with wind energy related experts we argue that china s wind industry has made great progress in terms of manufacturing and installing but is confronted with various challenges and problems regarding the development of its indigenous innovation capabilities using innovation systems approaches as an analytical tool and focusing on institutions actors technology and their interaction in supporting innovation activities we decompose the elements of china s wind energy innovation system and their role in developing the domestic wind industry against this backdrop we identify and discuss challenges and obstacles in the development of an innovation driven wind industry in china the paper strongly argues that more attention should be paid to improve the coordination and cooperation among the various actors of the wind energy innovation system to the build up of a market oriented education and training system as well as to intellectual property protection

taiwan s renewable energy strategy and energy intensive industrial policy abstract since taiwan is a densely populated island with almost no fossil energy resources the development of renewable energy is an important issue in the past industries with low energy productivity were encouraged for economic development but this structure of low energy productivity industries should now be adjusted to promote renewable energy and energy efficiency by analyzing the gross domestic product together with the energy consumption and co2 emissions for major industries in taiwan this paper considers what kinds of industries should be encouraged or discouraged for taiwan s future development in addition the recommendations for taiwan s renewable energy and energy intensive industrial policy are presented