agents with principles the control of labor in the dutch east india company 1700 to 1796 principal agent problems plagued early modern corporations the existing literature emphasizes the potential benefits provided by private trade in aligning the interests of company agents to those

fiscal policies in the world economy this paper uses a two country general equilibrium model of the world economy in order to analyze the effects of budget deficits and government spending on world rates of interest consumption and international indebtedness it demonstrates the difference between the effects of fiscal expenditures and tax cuts as well as between the effects of current policies and expected future policies it is shown that the qualitative effects of fiscal policies depend on whether the country introducing the policies runs a surplus or a deficit in its current account following the positive analysis of the short run and the steady state effects the paper concludes with a normative analysis of the welfare implications of budget deficits

testing the efficiency of the canadian u s exchange market under the assumption of no risk premium the efficiency of the canadian u s exchange market for the current float is examined more extensively than previously semi strong form tests which admit the lagged spot rate as a predictor are considered in addition to the standard weak form test these stronger tests reject the joint null hypothesis of an efficient exchange market and no risk premium for the period ending in october 1976 although not for the entire period for almost every year the current spot rate provided a better forecast of the future spot rate than did the current forward rate there is now an extensive empirical literature on testing the efficiency of various foreign exchange markets see 16 for a survey yet almost all of these tests are weak form tests or tests of the bias of the forward exchange rate as a predictor of the future spot rate such tests in the canadian u s exchange market can be found in the work of porter 20 eastman 5 kaserman 10 kohihagen 11 cornell 3 and levich 14 for the canadian float of the 1950s porter 20 and kaserman 10 found that one could not reject the unbiasedness of the forward rate eastman 5 and kohlhagen 11 rejected the unbiasedness of the forward rate for the floating period although not for the subsequent fixed period but their use of overlapping contracts means that their standard errors are biased cornell 3 and levich 14 found that in terms of the root meansquared error criterion the lagged spot rate and the lagged forward rate predicted the current spot rate equally well for more recent periods this paper examines the efficiency of the canadian u s exchange market for the current float july 1970 to december 1978 in a more extensive way than it has been previously examined from the weak form test the paper proceeds to two semi strong form tests which admit the lagged spot rate as a possible predictor throughout the paper various subperiods are considered in addition to the period as a whole

time preference and international lending and borrowing in an overlapping generations model two economies represented by diamond type overlapping generations models and differing only in their pure rates of time preference are joined together capital formation balance of payments behavior and welfare are compared under autarky and openness with a positive natural rate of growth the low time preference country runs a current account surplus in the steady state but not necessarily outside it if preexisting capital is not shiftable between countries integration in the world economy makes the high time preference country worse off in the short run the ranking of stationary utility levels under autarky and openness is ambiguous

exchange rates inflation and the sterilization problem germany 1975 1981 when the goals of internal and external macroeconomic equilibrium are in conflict sterilized intervention in the foreign exchange market may provide an independent policy instrument through which the central bank can resolve its dilemma in the short run this paper is concerned with the west german bundesbank s use of sterilization during the recent years of exchange rate flexibility the paper asks whether the bundesbank pursued sterilization during the years 1995 1981 and whether sterilized foreign exchange intervention exerts a significant influence on the exchange rate in the german case estimation of a stylized bundesbank reaction function suggests an affirmative answer to the first of these questions to assess the efficacy of sterilized intervention a structural portfolio balance model of german asset markets and prices is estimated dynamic perfect foresight simulations of the empirical model are used to ascertain whether imperfect substitutability between foreign and domestic bonds is sufficient to allow the bundesbank to attain independent internal and external goals over the short run of about a month the model s verdict is that the bundesbank has little if any power to influence the exchange rate over that time span without altering current or expected future money market conditions this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

is it signalling exchange intervention and the dollar deutschemark rate abstract the portfolio balance channel for sterilised intervention is tested by examining the effects of changes in relative asset supplies on the dollar deutschemark rate during the 1980s in contrast to previous studies we control for any signalling effects of central bank intervention and find a weak but statistically significant portfolio balance influence on the exchange rate

intervention and sterilisation under floating exchange rates the uk 1973 1983 in this paper a small portfolio balance model in the spirit of obstfeld 1983 is estimated for the sterling pound us dollar exchange rate over the period 1973 quarter 2 to 1983 quarter 4 it is demonstrated inter alia that pure or sterilised foreign exchange market intervention can be effective even when agents form expectations rationally

relationships among exchange rates intervention and interest rates an empirical investigation abstract this study uses herefore unavailable daily data on official intervention to test the joint hypotheses of perfect asset substitutability and exchange market efficiency this joint hypothesis is generally soundly rejected for six exchange rates over various sample periods in contrast to evidence elsewhere from weekly or monthly data lagged intervention is a significant determinant of realized profits in about half the cases this evidence is consistent with existence of a portfolio balance channel at least in the short run other evidence indicates that coordinated intervention sometimes may have an impact significantly different from intervention by one central bank alone

an exploration in the theory of exchange rate regimes three exchange rate regimes a float a one sided peg and a cooperative peg are evaluated and compared in terms of efficiency and welfare levels the framework of analysis embodies country specific monies with the money of each country being used to transact in its commodity markets and its currency denominated bonds welfare levels depend only on consumption levels in the presence of perfect foresight all equilibrium allocations are pareto efficient in a floating exchange rate regime the perfect foresight equilibrium allocation coincides with an equilibrium of a costless barter economy the same result holds in a one sided peg if the pegging country s exchange rate stabilizing authority breaks even over time in a cooperative peg regime there is a different equilibrium allocation for each combination of exchange rate levels and monetary policies problems of policy coordination and conflicts in desired monetary policies are discussed

in search of the exchange risk premium a six currency test assuming mean variance optimization abstract a number of authors examining deviations of actual rates of currency depreciation from forward discounts have claimed to find evidence of risk premiums if these deviations are indeed partly due to risk premiums rather than being entirely due to expectational errors then they should be systematically related to those variables on which risk premiums are thought to depend finance theory tells us that if investors optimize with respect to mean and variance the risk premium depends in a specific way on 1 the supplies of assets denominated in the various currencies 2 the variance covariance matrix of the rates of return and 3 the coefficient of risk aversion the null hypothesis of this paper is that the coefficient of risk aversion is zero countries assets are perfect substitutes and risk premiums are nonexistent the alternative hypothesis is that rates of return are systematically related to asset supplies by a macroeconomic portfolio balance function the maximum likelihood technique used dominates previous attempts to find such a relationship in that the parameters of the portfolio balance function are constrained to depend on the variance covariance matrix as the finance theory says they should on the other hand the technique also dominates previous applications of the finance theory in that the expected returns are allowed to vary over time as the macroeconomic portfolio balance theory says they should the paper s finding is a statistical inability to reject the null hypothesis for a portfolio of six currencies although this could be due to low power in the test

the implications of mean variance optimization for four questions in international macroeconomics abstract the hypothesis of mean variance optimization has powerful implications transcending particular methods used for variance covariance estimation 1 for conventional estimates of risk aversion substitutability between domestic and foreign securities is close to perfect in the sense that risk premiums are small in magnitude a few basic points and thus cannot explain much bias in forward rates 2 nevertheless as long as risk aversion is not zero foreign exchange intervention still affects the level of the exchange rate proportionately at least to asset supply changes 3 current account deficits also have effects 4 finally dollar depreciation should not be accompanied by appreciation of the mark against the franc

a portfolio balance rational expectations model of the dollar mark exchange rate abstract a model is developed in which current account imbalances can be financed through transfers of bonds denominated in either currency the reduced form links the current spot rate to the expected future spot rate via a risk premium which depends on the global currency mix of outside assets that governments impose on private portfolios through budget deficits and interventions and on the global distribution of private wealth among regions with different portfolio preferences an iterative procedure generates rational expectations forecasts of the dollar mark rate which perform somewhat better than forward rates in predicting monthly changes in the spot rate

a note on exchange rate expectations and nominal interest differentials a test of the fisher hypothesis this note tests the hypothesis that nominal interest differentials between similar assets denominated in different currencies can be explained entirely by the expected change in the exchange rate over the holding period this proposition often called the fisher open hypothesis or the hypothesis of perfect asset substitutability has been a major component of recent theories of exchange rate determination and has important implications for monetary policy 1 the fisher hypothesis differs from the covered interest parity theorem enunciated by keynes 11 while covered interest parity equates the nominal interest differential between financial centers to a known premium or discount on forward foreign exchange and is thus in principle riskless fisher parity involves risk in an essential way the two conditions are equivalent only when forward exchange rates equal expected future spot rates recent theoretical work for example that of grauer litzenberger and stehle 8 kouri 12 and frankel 6 shows that this need not be the case when market participants are risk averse thus while covered interest parity must always hold exactly in an informationally efficient asset market with no transactions costs fisher parity need not nominal interest differentials may reflect risk premia in addition to expected exchange rate movements 2 it should be emphasized at the outset that the tests conducted in this paper are really joint tests of the fisher hypothesis and a weak form of foreign exchange market informational efficiency levich 14 has argued that tests of market efficiency are always joint tests involving some hypothesized structure of normal equilibrium returns below we assume informational efficiency and instead test fisher s hypothesized arbitrage condition that nominal interest differentials equal expected percentage changes in exchange rates

management practices work life balance and productivity a review of some recent evidence increasing product market competition is believed to be a driving force behind higher productivity however even those critics of globalization who accept this argument claim that there is a hard trade off because tougher competition comes at the price of reducing work life balance wlb optimists by contrast argue that competition can spur better wlb practices and therefore higher productivity so there is a win win situation to address this issue we use an innovative survey tool to collect the first international data on management practices and wlb practices surveying 732 medium sized manufacturing firms in the usa france germany and the uk we find that the usa has the best management practices but the worst work life balance when we look within countries however we reject the pessimistic trade off model first wlb outcomes are significantly associated with better management so that well run firms are both more productive and offer better conditions for their employees second tougher competition increases average management quality but does not negatively affect employees working environment as with many other studies better wlb practices are associated with significantly higher productivity this relationship disappears however after controlling for the overall quality of management

real exchange rates under alternative nominal exchange rate systems abstract the paper develops an equilibrium model of the determination of exchange rates the relative price of nontraded goods and the current account the focus is on the effects of various real and nominal disturbances and the conditions under which the nominal exchange rate system is neutral with respect to real variables in the economy the model demonstrates an assymetry in the roles of trade and nontraded goods in affecting exchange rates an econometric investigation of the raltion between the exchange rate system and the variability of real exchange rates provides some evidence against the neutrality hypothesis

money bonds and foreign exchange in the theory of finance capital markets provide securities which allow the ownership of productive assets to be allocated among investors according to their willingness to bear risk in exchange for return and independently of their tastes for the productive services provided by the assets this paper uses the theory of finance to study the role of money as a productive asset and the transformation of money into a portfolio asset true to its purpose the capital market provides securities nominal bonds that allow an allocation of the current services of the money supply according to its current productivity and without regard for its future purchasing power risk and an allocation of the future purchasing power risk of the money supply according to the willingness of investors to bear this risk in exchange for return and without regard for investor needs for the future transactions services of money in open

identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions evidence from australia and japan abstract using a model incorporating the endogenous relationship between exchange rates and intervention we show how a change in central bank policy can be used as an identification assumption estimating this model with simulated gmm for daily data from australia and japan we find that a us 100 million purchase appreciates the australian dollar by 1 3 1 8 but the yen by just 0 2 almost all of the impact of an intervention occurs during the day it is conducted and we confirm that central banks typically lean against the wind

effective sterilized foreign exchange intervention evidence from a rule based policy abstract this paper investigates the effectiveness of sterilized foreign exchange interventions by exploiting a discontinuous policy rule used by the central bank of colombia we use a unique data set that comprises tick by tick intervention and order book data daily capital in and outflows and balance sheet information of financial institutions we apply regression discontinuity methods to identify the surprise component of rule based interventions and use this variation to measure how they affect exchange rates and capital flows our findings indicate that interventions had significant effects on the exchange rate albeit short lived 2 3 weeks moreover capital controls amplify the effect of intervention though some effect remains even in the presence of free capital flows a methodological contribution of the paper is to extend regression discontinuity designs to a time series environment and to show how these techniques can be used to identify and estimate local non linear impulse response functions a clearly defined policy rule and high frequency data are crucial in exploiting local variation around the policy cutoff

budget deficit external official borrowing and sterilized invertion policy in foreign exchange markets abstract i study the effect of a temporary budget deficit which is financed in the international capital market on the exchange rate first i show that the exchange rate depreciates both in the short and in the long run if the government finances the deficit by selling debt denominated in foreign currencies to nonresidents secondaly i show that the government can prevent an immediate depreciation of the exchange rate adopting a policy of sterilized intervation however the achievement of this short run exchange rate target implies a long run depreciation of the real exchange rate

can exchange rate predictability be achieved without monetary convergence evidence from the ems abstract the evidence presented here suggests that the european monetary system has indeed coincided with more predictable exchange rates nominal and real between france germany and italy but if increased monetary policy coordination is the main explanation then it is surprising that the conditional variance of real interest differentials between these countries does not appear to have fallen unless the disturbances are mostly real in which case fixed rates are suboptimal high onshore offshore interest differentials for franc and lira assets and the very slow convergence of intra ems inflation rates suggest that capital controls have played a large role

outsourcing and offshoring implications for productivity of business services this paper reviews the implications of outsourcing and offshoring for the productivity of business services in the uk official statistics indicate that business service productivity has grown by over 20 per cent in the last 7 years at the same time as employment grew by 20 per cent the paper considers possible factors that account for the simultaneous growth of employment and productivity first we discuss outsourcing and offshoring and their role in enhancing productivity through greater specialization standardization and consolidation of business processes and a shift to higher value added services outsourcing of business services is interpreted as part of corporate restructuring namely as the unbundling of corporate functions as well as vertical disintegration second as some services become more like products both low skilled and high skilled jobs are subjected to productivity growth through standardization and digitization it is argued however that the future of business service productivity is on a knife edge depending on the mix of two sources of productivity enhancement namely greater standardization and capturing value from customized solutions copyright 2006 oxford university press

exchange rate dynamics an empirical investigation this paper estimates a reduced form exchange rate equation whose estimates are used to address questions on exchange rate overshooting intermediate run exchange rate dynamics and long run proportionality relationships between relative money supplies and exchange rates based on swiss u s data from the period 1973 79 the major findings are that following a monetary shock there is short run exchange rate overshooting by a factor of about two and that subsequent exchange rate adjustments to a new long run equilibrium take longer than 2 years and exhibit nonmonotonic patterns

does the federal reserve care about the rest of the world many economists are accustomed to thinking about federal reserve policy any economists are accustomed to thinking about federal reserve policy in terms of the institution s dual mandate which refers to price stability in terms of the institution s dual mandate which refers to price stability and high employment and in which the exchange rate and other interand high employment and in which the exchange rate and other international variables matter only insofar as they infl uence infl ation and the output national variables matter only insofar as they infl uence infl ation and the output gap which is to say not very much gap which is to say not very much in fact this conventional view is heavily shaped by the distinctive and pecuin fact this conventional view is heavily shaped by the distinctive and peculiar circumstances of the last three decades when the infl uence of international liar circumstances of the last three decades when the infl uence of international considerations on fed policy has been limited in this paper i will discuss how the considerations on fed policy has been limited in this paper i will discuss how the federal reserve paid signifi cant attention to international considerations in its fi rst federal reserve paid signifi cant attention to international considerations in its fi rst two decades followed by relative inattention to such factors in the two plus decades two decades followed by relative inattention to such factors in the two plus decades that followed then back to renewed attention to international aspects of monetary that followed then back to renewed attention to international aspects of monetary policy in the 1960s before the recent period of benign neglect of the international policy in the 1960s before the recent period of benign neglect of the international dimension this longer perspective is a reminder that just because the fed has not dimension this longer perspective is a reminder that just because the fed has not attached priority to international aspects of monetary policy in the recent past we attached priority to international aspects of monetary policy in the recent past we have no guarantee that it will not do so in the future indeed i will argue in the have no guarantee that it will not do so in the future indeed i will argue in the conclusion that in the next few decades international aspects are likely to play a conclusion that in the next few decades international aspects are likely to play a larger role in federal reserve policy making larger role in federal reserve policy making 1

why is productivity so dispersed many papers have documented wide variations in productivity even in narrowly defined industries some have argued that this primarily reflects measurement problems due for example to comparing across different products others argue that this reflects persistent differences in performance due for example to management this paper looks at productivity differences not within an industry but within a firm we use data on productivity of different branches within lines of business of a major uk based wholesaler using these productivity data for comparisons is we argue more likely to compare like with like than comparing between firms we document sustained differences in productivity even between branches within the same line of business we also discuss the extent to which they are correlated with differences in management and find that such differences account for around 40 per cent of the difference in productivity copyright 2006 oxford university press

do asset demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns a six currency test abstract international asset demands are functions of expected returns optimal portfolio theory tells us that the coefficients in this relationship depend on the variance covariance matrix of real returns but previous estimates of the optimal portfolio 1 assume expected returns constant and 2 are not set up to test the hypothesis of mean variance optimization we use maximum likelihood estimation to impose a constraint between the coefficients and the error variance covariance matrix for a portfolio of six currencies we are able statistically to reject the constraint evidently investors are either not sophisticated enough to maximize a function of the mean and variance of end of period wealth or else are too sophisticated to do so

the capitalization of income streams and the effects of open market policy under fixed exchange rates abstract this paper investigates the long and short run neutrality of open market monetary policy in a world of fixed exchange rates and imperfect substitutability between bonds denominated in different currencies using an illustrative portfolio balance model it shows that when the public discounts the future tax liabilities associated with the national debt and the central bank supports the exchange rate by trading non interest bearing foreign assets open market policy has a short run effect but no long run effect on the domestic price level and interest rate when the foreign exchange intervention assets earn interest that is rebated to and capitalized by the public open market policy loses even its short run efficacy the capital account offset to monetary policy is complete

testing the portfolio balance model a multi lateral approach abstract this paper estimates outside bond demand equations from the portfolio balance model of exchange rate determination for five currencies the approach used in this paper differs from other structural studies of the portfolio balance model in two fundamental ways first while previous studies limit the portfolio choice to domestic assets relative to a composite foreign asset the model analyzed in this paper decomposes the foreign asset by currency second exploiting the cross equation correlation that arises from this decomposition provides more efficient estimates of the asset market parameters

a further exploration in the theory of exchange rate regimes in an interesting paper in this journal elhanan helpman 1981 develops a simple two country model to compare the welfare levels that are achieved under different exchange rate regimes in a world characterized by perfect foresight his basic finding is that equilibrium consumption allocations and hence welfare levels are identical under a floating exchange rate system and a one sided peg fixed exchange rate regime this result is due to helpman s assumption that output is determined exogenously which allows a separation of the real and monetary sides of the economy the purpose of this paper is to extend helpman s model by making two alterations in his setup 1 to allow production to be endogenously determined as a function of labor force participation and 2 to allow welfare levels to be dependent on labor service as well as on consumption the main conclusion then obtained is that a country may achieve a higher welfare level under a flexible exchange rate regime than under a fixed exchange rate regime since it is able to choose an optimal rate of inflation or currency depreciation

the rules of the game international money in historical perspective no world central bank issues a separate currency for commerce across national boundaries instead a system of national monies works more or less well in providing a medium of exchange and unit of account for current international transactions as well as a store of value and standard of deferred payment for longer term borrowing and lending how do national governments and banking institutions interact to provide international money for merchants and investors by necessity this monetary interaction changes with time place political circumstances and financial technology to better understand its historical evolution let us follow robert mundell and distinguish between a monetary system and a monetary order

stochastic inflation and government provision of indexed bonds abstract this paper examines the consequences of using indexed bonds as one of the government financing instruments along with money and taxes it is shown that open market operations between money and indexed bonds do not matter in a real sense despite their different risk characteristics increasing the share of indexed bonds in the government portfolio increases the volatility and the conditional mean of real rates of return on money when provided by means other than open market operations indexed bonds can affect the allocation of resources but these reallocations cannot be pareto improving

malfeasance and the foundations for global trade the structure of english trade in the east indies 1601 1833 drawing on a remarkable data set compiled from ships logs journals factory correspondence ledgers and reports that provide unusually precise information on each of the 4 572 voyages taken by english traders of the east india company hereafter eic we describe the eic trade network over time from 1601 to 1833 from structural images of voyages organized by shipping seasons the authors map over time and space the emergence of dense fully integrated global trade networks to reveal globalization long before what is now called globalization the authors show that the integration of the world trade system under the aegis of the eic was the unintended by product of systematic individual malfeasance private trading on the part of ship captains seeking profit from internal eastern trade

the cost of a central bank leaning against a random walk abstract using a stochastic model we show that a central bank is expected to suffer a loss when it temporarily affects the exchange rate by sterilized intervention against a random walk we also demonstrate that the methodology used in several studies of the profitability of official central bank intervention biases their results towards finding positive profits this bias created by only observing periods where cumulative intervention sums to zero accounts for the seemingly contradictory empirical results of several intervention profitability studies

money and interest in a cash in advance economy the authors analyze an aggregative general equilibrium model in which the use of money is motivated by a cash in advance constraint applied to purchases of a subset of consumption goods the system is subject to both real and monetary shocks which are economy wide and observed by all they develop methods for verifying the existence of characterizing and explicitly calculating equilibria copyright 1987 by the econometric society

a theoretical approach to sterilized foreign exchange intervention in this paper we survey prominent theories that have shaped the literature on sterilized foreign exchange interventions we identify three main strands of literature 1 that which deems interventions futile 2 that which requires some market friction i e limited arbitrage in order for interventions to be effective and 3 that which advocates the use of interventions as long as they convey signals on the stance of future monetary policy we contribute to the literature in three important ways first by reviewing new theoretical models that have surfaced within the last decade second by further penetrating into the theory of interventions in order to analyze the key features that make each model distinct and third by only focusing on sterilized operations which allows us to sidestep the effects induced by changes in the stock of money supply in addition the models that we present comprise both a macro and microstructure approach so as to provide a comprehensive view of the theory behind exchange rate intervention

the assessment international competitiveness the concept of international competitiveness as applied to national economies is a popular one politicians businessmen and economists alike re fer to it in day to day discussion when looking at the external export import market share or trade balance performance of different countries indi cators are produced showing changes in or levels of various countries competitiveness e g the relative price or cost indices regularly published by the imf and the oecd or the absolute measures produced by organizations such as the geneva world economic forum and the lausanne institute for management development governments of ten instigate research on the matter as for instance in the case of the 1993 us competitiveness policy council orthe 1995 eu competitiveness advisory group yet it has recently been argued by paul krugman that competitiveness is a meaningless word when applied to national economies and the obsession with competitiveness is both wrong and dangerous krugman 1994 p 44 apositionkrugman forcefully reaffirms in his contribution to this issue of the oxford review of economic policy

on the denomination of government debt a critique of the portfolio balance approach abstract we show that some classes of sterilized interventions have no effect on equilibrium prices and quantities the proof does not require complete markets ricardian equivalence monetary neutrality or the law of one price moreover regressions of exchange rates or interest differentials on variables measuring debt s currency composition contain no information about the affectiveness of such interventions other interventions require changes in monetary and fiscal policy their effects depend generally on the influence of these changes on the economy and not on the intervention alone in short sterilized intervention is not as the portfolio balance approach indicates an extra policy instrument

from skills revolution to productivity miracle not as easy as it sounds this article surveys the potential impact of skill on productivity it opens with a review of the utility of productivity as a measure of systemic economic performance and then goes on to explore the oft assumed close and strong relationship between skills and productivity the importance of other factors and types of investment is stressed these complementary elements may be at least as important as skill in boosting performance and their absence may negate the impact of public investment in education and training the ability of economic development policy particularly as it relates to the regional development agencies to address skills and economic development is assessed and questions are raised about what type and level of skill might have the largest impact on economic performance in conclusion we discuss the demands that new policy approaches are making upon the machinery and personnel of government

a test of perfect substitutability in the foreign exchange market i motivations for the test the question of whether or not domestic bonds are perfect substitutes for foreign bonds in investors portfolios implying that the expected rates of returns must be equalized across currencies is an important one for two reasons the question is crucial first for choosing among various asset market models of exchange rate determination and second for evaluating tests of efficiency in the forward exchange market to illuminate the first motivation a brief discussion of models of exchange rate determination is necessary all asset market models share the assumption that there are no significant transactions costs capital controls or other impediments to the international flow of capital thus actual portfolios adjust instantaneously to equal desired portfolios this implies for example covered interest parity the domestic interest rate should differ from the foreign interest rate by an amount exactly equal to the forward discount rate perfect substitutability between domestic and foreign bonds is the stronger assumption that market participants are indifferent as to the currency composition of their portfolio it implies uncovered interest parity the domestic interest rate must differ from the foreign interest rate by an amount exactly equal to the expected rate of depreciation the perfect substitutability assumption is far from standard in fact exchange rate models within the asset market view can be classified into those that belong to the monetary approach defined by the assumption of perfect substitutability and those that belong to the portfolio balance approach defined by the assumption of imperfect substitutability in the portfolio balance approach investors hold well defined proportions of their wealth in the form of each country s assets with the proportions depending on the expected rates of return as in equation 1

monetary targets real exchange rates and macroeconomic stability abstract in this paper i develop a model to determine the optimal degree of flexibility in attaining monetary targets in an economy that is affected by shocks in the labor and financial markets i then simulate the model to assess the optimal degree of monetary policy flexibility in spain a country that has adopted monetary targets rigidly since 1978 i show that the model supports the policy choice of that country i also show that the monetary authorities should attribute more importance to real exchange rate movements in choosing their policies if the spanish economy becomes more open to international trade or if the labor market becomes more flexible

history lessons the birth of impersonal exchange the community responsibility system and impartial justice this occasional feature will discuss episodes and events drawn from economichistory that have lessons for current topics in policy and research responses to thiscolumn and suggestions for future ones should be sent to kenneth sokoloff c ojournal of economic perspectives department of economics university of cali fornia los angeles 405 hilgard ave los angeles california 90095 1477

stabilization of the canadian dollar 1975 1986 the authors extend their earlier work on canadian intervention in the foreign exchange market in three ways 1 use daily data from 1975 to 1986 to see if results for the 1950s hold during the current float 2 extend their original model to include both stock and flow versions of the foreign exchange market and 3 compare estimates using published canadian holdings of u s dollars to estimates using actual intervention which is confidential canadian authorities continue to lean against the wind but their lagged response is longer and more variable published data effectively reflect intervention

should government smooth exchange rate risk abstract a general equilibrium model is built to explain if there are circumstances in which exchange rate risk smoothing errs policies may bring a pareto improvement for an indebted small open home economy the model shows that this is the case when overpessimistic foreign creditors demand a large spread on the default risk free world interest rate whose size can be reduced by errs policies and in addition market imperfections such as information asymmetry between foreign investors and domestic debtors prevent the home economy s residents from internalizing all benefits and costs of the exchange rate risk reallocation into their allocative decisions

on the effects of sterilized intervention an analysis of weekly data abstract as the recent empirical studies surveyed here illustrate it is very difficult to demonstrate that the exchange rate risk premium depends through a portfolio balance channel on the currency composition of outside assets the existence of a portfolio balance effect is a necessary condition for sterilized intervention to be a genuinely independent tool of monetary policy this paper studies u s canadian data and attempts to improve on earlier studies by using higher frequency weekly data and by implementing an appropriate instrumental variables technique 2s2sls however we still fail to detect evidence of a portfolio balance effect

real transfers in fixed exchange rate systems and the international adjustment mechanism abstract fixed exchange rates can be maintained by different types of stabilization schemes this paper takes a look at some alternative institutional settings and shows that there is an inherent redistribution mechanism in some of them that will influence the world allocation of consumption an examination of the global adjustment to monetary disturbances illustrates some interesting implications of the institutional differences between alternative systems the results suggest that the description of the international adjustment mechanism under fixed exchange rates given by the monetary approach to the balance of payments is valid only under quite restrictive assumptions

monetary independence under bretton woods perspectives from a stochastic maximizing model research based on the kouri porter 1974 model of international capital flows suggests that the central banks of nonreserve countries enjoyed considerable monetary independence during the bretton woods era this paper is a theoretical and empirical reassessment of this conclusion using a stochastic maximizing model it is shown that the existence of imperfect asset substitutability does not guarantee monetary control at the empirical level the estimated offset coefficients for four industrialized countries are consistent with zero monetary independence

fed intervention dollar appreciation and systematic risk abstract in a four factor asset pricing model estimated on daily data fed intervention significantly affects betas of surprises in the market return expected inflation rate yield curve and corporate bond risk premium fed foreign currency sales cause economically and statistically significant increases in the systematic risk premium in appreciation and thus in the dollar s expected appreciation rate the direction the fed desires and consistent with the signaling but not the portfolio balance channel intervention s effects on actual appreciation are less reliable they depend on unpredictable risk factor realizations even successful intervention to strengthen the dollar may be costly by increasing the dollar s systematic risk intervention reduces the attractiveness of u s relative to foreign investments further uncertainty about future fed interventions may induce resource misallocation ceteris paribus investors find it harder to estimate risk adjusted discount rates and forecast the home currency value of cash flows

trade in nominal assets monetary policy and price level and exchange rate risk in a previous paper trade in risky assets i have analyzed the pattern of international trade in risky real assets between barter economies relying on the law of comparative advantage and using autarky asset price differences to predict the pattern of asset trade in this paper the analysis is extended to international trade in nominal assets assets with returns paid in currencies between monetary economies the risk chracteristics of real returns on nominal assets depend on price level and exchange rate risk and therefore on monetary policy it is examined how different combinations of monetary policies and exchange rate regimes affect nominal assets return risk characteristics their autarky perices and hence their trade pattern when countries differ with respect to their outputs or their attitudes towards risk when world asset markets are incomplete different monetary policies and exchange rate regimes have dramatic effects on risk characteristics of home and foreign currency bonds and on the trade pattern in these assets as well as on aggregate capital and current accounts

do demand curves for currencies slope down evidence from the msci global index change traditional portfolio balance theory derives a downward sloping currency demand function from limited international asset substitutability historically this theory enjoyed little empirical support we provide direct evidence by examining the exchange rate effect of a major redefinition of the msci international equity index in 2001 and 2002 the index changes implied large changes in the representation of different countries in the msci world index and therefore produced strong exogenous equity flows by index funds our event study shows a strong announcement effect in which countries with a decreasing equity representation vis a vis the u s depreciated against the dollar

on the theory of international currency portfolios abstract the paper develops a general equilibrium theory of the optimal currency composition of international bond portfolios like the partial equilibrium portfolio balance literature of the 1980s the theory emphasizes the critical roles of government debt and government balance sheet operations in the determination of portfolios prices and allocations consistent with empirical findings optimal foreign currency positions are found to be small with their size decreasing with exchange rate volatility while optimal domestic currency positions are large and increasing with domestic interest rates a large open market purchase of domestic currency bonds from private households lowers domestic interest rates

human resource management policies and productivity new evidence from an econometric case study first we distinguish various approaches used by economists to assess the impact of human resource management practices on productivity and then we briefly review and illustrate studies that represent different approaches in the main part of the paper we illustrate the econometric case study method by using new data to analyse a case from retail trade and by emulating an approach used in an earlier study consistent with theory we find that when employees have opportunities to participate to receive appropriate information and pertinent rewards a one standard deviation increase of the first principal component score would increase productivity by 1 our findings imply that there are benefits to innovative work practices even in settings where employees do simple tasks and employees are relatively low skilled since our findings are similar to those contained in a previous study our results also indicate the value of replication studies

are forign exchange intervention and monetary policy related and does it really matter the relationship between foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy underlies the question of whether sterilized interventions can affect the exchange rate in this article the author examines this relationship using data on u s foreign exchange interventions from 1985 to 1990 recently made publicly available she examines whether interventions could be viewed as signaling changes in future monetary policy variables the author also considers whether changes in monetary policy may induce interventions in an effort by central bankers to lean against the wind of exchange rate movements interestingly she finds evidence both that interventions help predict monetary policy variables and that monetary variables help predict interventions copyright 1995 by university of chicago press

new techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments this paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes traditionally interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates exchange rates and inflation more recently these methods have been refined to rely on implied forward interest rates so as to extract expected future time paths very recently methods have been designed to extract not only the means but the whole risk neutral probability distribution from a set of option prices

is intervention a signal of future monetary policy evidence from the federal funds futures market sterilized foreign exchange market intervelltioll may affect the exchange rate if it signals future monetary policy actions sigllaling will be effective if the celltral bank backs up interventioll with predictable changes in the stance of molletary policy and in turn affects currellt expectations we investigate whether illtervention operations in the united states are lelated to changes in expectatiolls over the stance of future monetary policy whele expectations are proxied by ifederal funds futures rates this relatively new futures market instrument has proved to be all efficiellt and ullbiased predictor of the future spot federal funds rate estimates obtained from a garch time series model over the l 989 93 period using daily data do not suppol1 the signalillg hypothesis dollar suppolt intervention is not related to a rise in expected future short term interest ates monetary tightening however intervention appears to significantly increase the conditional variance of federal funds futures rates suggesting that it adds considerable noise to the market alld possibly increasing the degree of uncertainty ovet the future course of molletary policy the effect of foreign exchange market intervention on exchange rates is a subject of continuing controversy few doubt that unsterilized intervention may affect nominal exchange rates by changing interest rates and monetary aggregates however the effect of sterilized intervention on exchange rates is less clear the portfolio balance channel through which sterilized intervention changes the currency denomination of relative asset supplies and thereby the exchange risk premium if assets are imperfect substitutes has received little empirical support for example rogoff 1984 humpage 1991 edison 1993 sweelaey 1995

sterilization of short term capital inflows through lower interest rates reductions in international interest rates are a major cause of capital flows to emerging economies increases in domestic interest rates are a frequent policy response to the resulting price increases this is often unsuccessful the paper suggests a theoretical explanation based on distinctive features of emerging financial markets including imperfect asset substitutability and imperfect capital mobility for some sectors of the economy it concludes that the appropriate policy response to capital inflows may be lower interest rates

improving productivity opening the black box hourly productivity levels in the uk still remain behind those in some competitor countries the government devotes much policy attention to enhancing productivity and continues to emphasise its five drivers investment innovation skills enterprise and competition this article argues that it is investment broadly defined that is the key to sustained productivity improvement the emphasis should be on improving productivity simultaneously with improving the quality of production only thus will the gains be widely shared in achieving these aims there are two prerequisites for policy makers the first is to ensure better coordination of policy than appears to be currently achieved by the present departmental structures in whitehall the second is to recognize fully the long and complex chain of causation that can be triggered by pulling on one policy lever such complexity can only be fully understood by more research on what actually goes on inside the black box of the organization 2006 oxford university press

macroeconomic policy exchange rate dynamics and optimal asset accumulation the paper develops a model of exchange rate and current account determination for a small economy peopled by infinitely lived utility maximizing households in this setting a central bank purchase of foreign exchange has no real effects when central bank foreign reserves earn interest at the world rate and proceeds are returned to the public in contrast an increase in the monetary growth rate does have real effects even in the long run the model developed here implies that an increase in government spending may lead to a surplus on current account the external adjustment process predicted by the model is one in which consumption real balances and external assets all rise or fall simultaneously

market microstructure effects of government intervention in the foreign exchange market as asymmetric information model of the bid ask spread is developed for a foreign exchange market subject to occasional government interventions traditional tests of the unbiasedness of the forward rate as a predictor of the future spot rate are shown to be inconsistent when the rates are measured as the average of their respective bid and ask quotes larger bid ask spreads on fridays are documented reliable evidence of asymmetric bid ask spreads for all days of the week albeit more pronounced on fridays are presented the null hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate continues to be rejected the regression slope coefficients increase toward unity however indicating a less variable risk premium

conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market abstract we investigate the existence of a risk premium in the foreign exchange market based on the conditional variance of market forecast errors the forecast errors are assumed to follow the arch process introduced by engle 1982 estimation and diagnostic testing of the model are discussed and results are presented for the currencies of the united kingdom france germany japan and switzerland