co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth in china a panel data analysis this paper examines the causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions energy consumption and real economic output using panel cointegration and panel vector error correction modeling techniques based on the panel data for 28 provinces in china over the period 1995 2007 our empirical results show that co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth have appeared to be cointegrated moreover there exists bidirectional causality between co2 emissions and energy consumption and also between energy consumption and economic growth it has also been found that energy consumption and economic growth are the long run causes for co2 emissions and co2 emissions and economic growth are the long run causes for energy consumption the results indicate that china s co2 emissions will not decrease in a long period of time and reducing co2 emissions may handicap china s economic growth to some degree some policy implications of the empirical results have finally been proposed

what uip tests on extreme samples reveal about the missing variable abstract in their uip regressions huisman et al 1998 extreme support for uncovered interest parity journal for international money and finance 17 211 228 focus on extreme forward premia and find much higher coefficients we show that for such results the expectation signal needs to be thicker tailed than the missing variable transaction costs may produce the right sort of bias it is i bounded i e it has no tails at all ii wide i e it may generate betas below 1 2 and iii u distributed which makes an extreme sample quite effective we derive theoretical and numerical results in the direction of what huisman et al observe we also tighten fama s moment conditions

co2 emissions energy consumption economic growth and financial development in gcc countries dynamic simultaneous equation models abstract this study investigates the dynamic causal relationships among carbon emissions financial development economic growth and energy consumption for gulf cooperation council gcc countries from 1980 through 2011 annual time series data and an autoregressive distributed lag ardl model are used the main contribution of this paper is that it has investigated the causes of carbon emissions by taking into account the role of financial development and economic growth in gcc countries the results suggest long run and causal relationships among carbon emissions financial development gross domestic product gdp and energy use in all gcc countries except united arab emirates uae moreover there is long run unidirectional causality running from carbon emissions to energy use in the case of saudi arabia uae and qatar furthermore a one way causal relationship from financial development to carbon emissions in the context of uae oman and kuwait is found the evidence suggests that financial systems should take into account environmental aspects in their current operations in these countries the results of this study may be of great importance for policy and decision makers in developing energy policies for gcc countries that contribute to curbing carbon emissions while preserving economic growth

examining the link between energy consumption carbon dioxide emission and economic growth in latin america and the caribbean abstract this study aims at exploring the bi directional long run relationship between energy consumption carbon dioxide emission and economic growth in the latin american and caribbean countries the canonical cointegrating regression ccr is used to achieve the goal of this study taking the period of 1980 2008 the study arrived at different results while 60 of the countries have a positive bi directional long run relationship between energy consumption carbon dioxide emission and economic growth the others have mixed results the results of the study motivated the researcher to recommend that these countries should increase their energy efficiency increase the share of green energy from their total energy use and increase energy conservation in order to reduce unnecessary waste of energy

is the efficiency wage efficient the social norm and organizational corruption the effectiveness of efficiency wage incentives is often jeopardized by perverse organizational corruption we model organizational corruption as a phenomenon of social interaction and relate the substantial psychological role characterizing the social norm to the corruption problem we find that if the status quo bribery rate within the firm is high social norms can no longer serve as a sufficient sanction against a corrupt supervisor pandemic organizational corruption tends to generate a critical mass effect the snowball effect which intensifies the corruption effect this intensified effect due to the snowballing character of social norms may more than offset the usual incentive effect of wages resulting in more widespread shirking in the firm jel classification d82 j41

real exchange rates and relative prices an empirical investigation abstract this paper uncovers a striking empirical regularity the consumer price of a good relative to a different good within a country tends to be much less variable than the price of that good relative to a similar good in another country this fact seems to hold for all goods except very simple homogeneous products models of real exchange rates are likely to have predictions regarding this relation so this fact may provide a useful gauge for discriminating among models

strikes free riders and social customs in recent years there has been a growing literature on the role of social customs in the labour market marsden 1986 for example has emphasised the importance of group norms and social custom in various labour market contexts jones 1984 develops an economic model of conformist behaviour in which an individual s work effort is determined partly by tradition and by the behaviour of other workers a central theme of the literature is that a rational economic agent does not inhabit a social vacuum and hence that individual behaviour is influenced to some extent by the actions of others the approach promises the possibility of an escape from the free riders problem which as we shall investigate might have a number of labour market applications such a potential has been suggested by a number of writers in different fields eiser 1978 writing from a socio psychological perspective has stressed the role of social norms in producing cooperative outcomes in the theoretical context of the prisoner s dilemma such an emphasis is consistent with sen s 1977 argument that the concept of commitment might offer a solution to the free rider problems

environmental kuznets curve in romania and the role of energy consumption abstract the aim of present study is to probe the dynamic relationship between economic growth energy consumption and co 2 emissions for period of 1980 2010 in case of romania in doing so ardl bounds testing approach is applied to investigate the long run cointegration between these variables our results confirm long run relationship between economic growth energy consumption and energy pollutants the empirical evidence reveals that environmental kuznets curve ekc is found both in long and short runs in romania further energy consumption is major contributor to energy pollutants democratic regime shows her significant contribution to decline co 2 emissions through effective implementation of economic policies and financial development improves environment i e reduces co 2 emissions by redirecting the resources to environment friendly projects

energy consumption and economic growth new insights into the cointegration relationship abstract this paper examines the long run relationship between energy consumption and real gdp including energy prices for 25 oecd countries from 1981 to 2007 the distinction between common factors and idiosyncratic components using principal component analysis allows to distinguish between developments on an international and a national level as drivers of the long run relationship indeed cointegration between the common components of the underlying variables indicates that international developments dominate the long run relationship between energy consumption and real gdp furthermore the results suggest that energy consumption is price inelastic causality tests indicate the presence of a bi directional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth in bric countries abstract this paper examines dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions energy consumption and output for a panel of bric countries over the period 1971 2005 except for russia 1990 2005 in long run equilibrium energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on emissions while real output exhibits the inverted u shape pattern associated with the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis with the threshold income of 5 393 in logarithms in the short term changes in emissions are driven mostly by the error correction term and short term energy consumption shocks as opposed to short term output shocks for each country short term deviations from the long term equilibrium take from 0 770 years russia to 5 848 years brazil to correct the panel causality results indicate there are energy consumption emissions bidirectional strong causality and energy consumption output bidirectional long run causality along with unidirectional both strong and short run causalities from emissions and energy consumption respectively to output overall in order to reduce emissions and not to adversely affect economic growth increasing both energy supply investment and energy efficiency and stepping up energy conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage of energy can be initiated for energy dependent bric countries

china s energy consumption and sustainable development comparative evidence from gdp and genuine savings this paper employs the structural vector autoregressions framework and the generalized impulse response function to study the long term dynamic relation between china s energy consumption and sustainable economic growth in addition to the conventional economic indicators gdp growth rates genuine savings rates are particularly examined to indicate sustainable economic development results show that the high elasticity of energy consumption dramatically undermines the capacity of china s sustainability in terms of reducing genuine savings rates we also use variance decomposition to calculate relative variance contribution rates in order to identify the most important factor affecting gdp growth as well as genuine savings rates the analysis finds that clean and renewable energy increase the country s genuine savings significantly that is renewable energy consumption promotes sustainable development for both natural and economic societies however increase in traditional solid energy consumption is more likely to benefit only the growth of gdp

risk taking global diversification and growth this paper develops a continuous time stochastic model in which international risk sharing can yield substantial welfare gains through its effect on expected consumption growth the mechanism linking global diversification to growth is an attendant world portfolio shift from safe low yield capital to riskier high yield capital the presence of these two types of capital captures the idea that growth depends on the availability of an ever increasing array of specialized hence inherently risky production inputs calibration exercises using consumption and stock market data imply that most countries reap large steady state welfare gains from global financial integration copyright 1994 by american economic association

rare disasters and exchange rates we propose a new model of exchange rates which yields a theory of the forward premium puzzle our explanation combines two ingredients the possibility of rare economic disasters and an asset view of the exchange rate our model is frictionless has complete markets and works for an arbitrary number of countries in the model rare worldwide disasters can occur and affect each country s productivity each country s exposure to disaster risk varies over time according to a mean reverting process ri sky countries command high risk premia they feature a depreciated exchange rate and a high interest rate as their risk premium mean reverts their exchange rate appreciates therefore currencies of high interest rate countries appreciate on average to make the notion of disaster risk more implementable we show how options prices might in principle uncover latent disaster risk and help forecast exchange rate movements we then extend the framework to incorporate two factors a disaster risk factor and a business cycle factor we calibrate the model and obtain quantitatively realistic values for the volatility of the exchange rate the forward premium puzzle regression coefficients and near random walk exchange rate dynamics finally we solve a model of stock markets across countries which yields a series of predictions about the joint behavior of exchange rates bonds options and stocks across countries the evidence from the options market appears to be supportive of the model jel e43 e44 f31 g12 g15

turn on the lights macroeconomic factors affecting renewable energy in pakistan the objective of the study is to examine the relationship between macroeconomic factors i e population growth urbanization industrialization exchange rate price level food production index and live stock production index and renewable energy in pakistan over a period of 1975 2012 in addition this study uses oil rent as an intervening variable to overcome the biasness of the single equation model the results indicate that macroeconomic factors positively contributed to renewable energy consumption in pakistan the causality test indicate that there is a unidirectional causality running towards macroeconomic factors to renewable energy in pakistan however renewable energy granger cause oil rent but not via other route in addition there is bidirectional causality between exchange rate and live stock production in pakistan variance decomposition analysis shows that economic growth has a major contribution to increase renewable energy in pakistan

on the causal dynamics between emissions nuclear energy renewable energy and economic growth this paper examines the causal relationship between co2 emissions nuclear energy consumption renewable energy consumption and economic growth for a group of 19 developed and developing countries for the period 1984 2007 using a panel error correction model the long run estimates indicate that there is a statistically significant negative association between nuclear energy consumption and emissions but a statistically significant positive relationship between emissions and renewable energy consumption the results from the panel granger causality tests suggest that in the short run nuclear energy consumption plays an important role in reducing co2 emissions whereas renewable energy consumption does not contribute to reductions in emissions this may be due to the lack of adequate storage technology to overcome intermittent supply problems as a result electricity producers have to rely on emission generating energy sources to meet peak load demand

interest rates and currency prices in a two country world abstract this paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices interest rates and currency exchange rates set in an infinitely lived two country world which is subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability formulas are obtained for pricing all equity claims nominally denominated bonds and currencies and these formulas are related to earlier closely related results in the theories of money finance international trade

coal consumption and economic growth in china abstract the aim of this paper is to re examine the relationship between coal consumption and real gdp of china with the use of panel data this paper applies modern panel data techniques to help shed light on the importance of the heterogeneity among different regions within china empirical analyses are conducted for the full panel as well as three subgroups of the panel the empirical results show that coal consumption and gdp are both i 1 and cointegrated in all regional groupings heterogeneity is found in the gdp equation of the full panel the regional causality tests reveal that the coal consumption gdp relationship is bidirectional in the coastal and central regions whereas causality is unidirectional from gdp to coal consumption in the western region thus energy conservation measures will not adversely affect the economic growth of the western region but such measures will likely encumber the economy of the coastal and central regions where most of the coal intensive industries are concentrated

the causal relationship between energy use and economic growth in switzerland abstract this paper investigates the relationships between energy consumption and economic growth in switzerland over the period 1950 2010 we apply bounds testing techniques to different energy types separately robustness tests are performed by including additional variables and restricting the analysis to the period after 1970 the results show that there exist robust long run relationships going from real gdp toward heating oil and electricity consumption the relationship between heating oil and gdp is in fact bidirectional although weaker from heating oil toward gdp than in the reverse direction when investigating the period 1970 2010 only the estimate of the long run income elasticity of electricity consumption loses statistical significance and that for heating oil becomes negative those results imply a possible decoupling between gdp growth and energy consumption so that energy conservation policies are not necessarily expected to have a negative impact on swiss economic growth

international risk cycles abstract recent work in international finance suggests that exchange rate puzzles can be accounted for if 1 aggregate uncertainty is time varying and 2 countries have heterogeneous exposures to a world aggregate shock we embed these features in a standard two country real business cycle framework and calibrate the model to equity risk premia in low and high interest rates countries unlike traditional real business cycle models our model generates volatile exchange rates a large currency forward premium excess comovement of asset prices relative to quantities and an imperfect correlation between relative consumption growth and exchange rates our model implies however that high interest rate countries have smoother quantities equity returns and interest rates than low interest rate countries contrary to the data

cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and output assessing the evidence from australia in this paper we describe our investigation of the cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic output in australia over a period of five decades the framework used in this paper is the single sector aggregate production function which is the first comprehensive approach used in an australian study of this type to include energy capital and labour as separate inputs of production the empirical evidence points to a cointegration relationship between energy and output and implies that energy is an important variable in the cointegration space as are conventional inputs capital and labour we also find some evidence of bidirectional causality between gdp and energy use although the evidence of causality from energy use to gdp was relatively weak when using the thermal aggregate of energy use once energy consumption was adjusted for energy quality we found strong evidence of granger causality from energy use to gdp in australia over the investigated period the results are robust irrespective of the assumptions of linear trends in the cointegration models and are applicable for different econometric approaches

the dynamics of natural gas consumption and gdp in bangladesh abstract reserves of natural gas in bangladesh are very large and total demand has increased secularly in recent years this paper examines the causal relationship between the consumption of natural gas and gdp in bangladesh over the period 1980 to 2010 we find that there is a positive unidirectional causality running from gdp to natural gas consumption movements in gdp affect the consumption of natural gas but not vice versa while our results rest on several statistical assumptions they support the pursuit of policies that are in line with energy conservation implementing these policies will be of particular significance in light of the fact that bangladesh s current reserves of natural gas will not meet its current level of consumption demand beyond the next two decades

is the forward bias economically small evidence from european rates abstract for the purpose of testing uncovered interest parity uip rates of european currencies against the mark offer a distinct advantage the admissible band of the exchange rate mechanism erm induces statistically significant mean reversion in weekly rates thus unlike for freely floating rates there is an expectation signal that has non trivial variation and is sufficiently traceable for research purposes when running the standard regression tests of the unbiased expectations hypothesis at the one week horizon we nevertheless obtain essentially zero coefficients for intra ems exchange rates and the familiar negative coefficients for extra ems rates even more puzzlingly lagged exchange rate changes remain significant when added to the regression a feature that seems hard to explain as a missing variable effect the deviation from uip is significant not just statistically but also economically trading rule tests reveal that for sufficiently large filters the average profit per trade exceeds transaction costs and that cumulative gains can be quite impressive the size of the profits and the patterns from buy versus sell decisions also allow us to reject the hypotheses of either a risk premium or peso issues about realignments as sufficient explanations

tests for a systematic risk component in deviations from uncovered interest rate parity in the intertemporal asset pricing model investments in spot foreign currencies involve time varying risk proportional to the conditional covariance of the value of the position with the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution of domestic currency we detect such risk premia in deviations from uncovered interest rate parity using weekly spot currency prices and eurocurrency interest rates our tests use the conditional capital asset pricing model with a world equity index as benchmark to represent aggregate wealth

economic growth co2 emissions and energy consumption what causes what and where abstract this paper applies panel vector autoregression pvar along with a system generalized method of moment system gmm to examine the dynamic causal relationship between economic growth carbon emissions and energy consumption for 116 countries over the period 1990 2014 using multivariate model the empirical results from this study have established key relationships which have important policy implications first at the global and regional levels economic growth does not cause energy consumption second with the exception of the global and caribbean latin america economic growth has no causal impact on carbon emissions however economic growth has a negative impact on carbon emissions at the global level and the caribbean latin america third carbon emissions positively cause economic growth fourth energy consumption positively causes economic growth in sub saharan africa while it negatively causes economic growth at the global middle east and north africa mena asia pacific and caribbean latin america fifth energy consumption positively causes carbon emissions in mena but causes carbon emissions negatively in sub saharan africa and caribbean latin america lastly with the exception of mena and the global sample carbon emissions do not cause energy consumption the impulse response function shows evidence of environmental kuznets curve at the global scale and sub saharan africa the policy implications of this paper are discussed

international good market segmentation and financial innovation abstract while international capital flows are now well liberalized markets for goods remain segmented to investigate how financial innovation may relieve the effects of this segmentation on risk sharing we examine a series of two country economies with internationally segmented good markets distinguished by the available financial securities sufficient conditions for efficiency include complete international financial markets together with liberalized international financial flows under these conditions heterogeneous agents from the same country may use securities as a substitute for the international shipment of goods this allows them to partially circumvent the segmentation allowing for efficient risk sharing

on the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model abstract the foreign exchange risk premium in a cash in advance model is investigated some weaknesses of the definition of the risk premium generally used are discussed it is shown that the primary ultimate source of foreign exchange risk is the covariance of monetary shocks with real output shocks several studies have assumed this covariance is zero and hence assumed away the major source of risk in the model finally the risk premium generated from standard versions of this model is argued to be very small because it is the same order of magnitudeas covariances of money and output growth rates

energy consumption and economic growth in china a multivariate causality test this study takes a fresh look at the direction of causality between energy consumption and economic growth in china during the period from 1972 to 2006 using a multivariate cointegration approach given the weakness associated with the bivariate causality framework the current study performs a multivariate causality framework by incorporating capital and labor variables into the model between energy consumption and economic growth based on neo classical aggregate production theory using the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach a long run equilibrium cointegration relationship has been found to exist between economic growth and the explanatory variables energy consumption capital and employment empirical results reveal that the long run parameter of energy consumption on economic growth in china is approximately 0 15 through a long run static solution of the estimated ardl model and that for the short run is approximately 0 12 by the error correction model the study also indicates the existence of short run and long run causality running from energy consumption capital and employment to economic growth the estimation results imply that energy serves as an important source of economic growth thus more vigorous energy use and economic development strategies should be adopted for china

currency prices terms of trade and interest rates a general equilibrium asset pricing cash in advance approach currency prices terms of trade and interest rates a general equilibrium asset pricing cash in advance approach

commodity trade and the carry trade a tale of two countries persistent interest rate differentials account for much of the currency carry trade profitability commodity currencies offer high interest rates on average while countries that export finished goods tend to have low interest rates we develop a general equilibrium model of international trade and currency pricing where countries have an advantage in producing either basic inputs or final goods in the model domestic production insulates commodity producing countries from global productivity shocks forcing final good producers to absorb them commodity currency exchange rates and risk premia increase with productivity differentials and trade frictions these predictions are strongly supported in the data this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

profits risk and uncertainty in foreign exchange markets this paper examines the properties of nominal profits from speculation in dollar dominated forward contracts using a representative agent cash in advance model modified to allow for heteroscedasticity in the exogenous processes the model is simulated by estimating exogenous processes from the data and the remaining free parameters with a simulated method of moments technique simulated expected profits are variable heteroskedastic and serially correlated but the magnitude of these second moments fall short of those of the predictable component of observed profits on the u s dollar as in the actual data simulated forward rates display biasedness in predicting simulated future spot rates

analysis of south korea s economic growth carbon dioxide emission and energy consumption using the markov switching model abstract recently many countries have been making an effort to reduce their carbon dioxide co2 emission and as part of such effort the united nations framework convention on climate change unfccc adopted the kyoto protocol in 1997 south korea is very likely to be included in the second batch of countries that must reduce their greenhouse gas emission after the end of the implementation of the kyoto protocol in 2012 reducing the country s co2 emission however can have an impact on the economy therefore in this study the correlations between south korea s economic growth co2 emission and energy consumption were analyzed the analysis period was from q1 1991 to q4 2011 and the analysis methods that were used were regression analysis for the relational analysis among the various overall indices and the markov switching model for a more detailed analysis the results of the analyses showed that south korea s economic growth and co2 emission were coincidental the correlation analysis of the country s economic growth and energy consumption showed a significant correlation between economic growth and fossil fuels which emit co2 such as coal in the industrial sector petroleum products in the industrial and transportation sectors and liquefied natural gas lng in the residential commercial and industrial sectors it is expected that the results of this study will pave the way for the conduct of various researches on controlling the country s co2 emission management and for suggestions for such to be given such as policies for reducing the energy consumption in each sector using the methodology proposed in this study

an intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices this paper develops a continuous time general equilibrium model of a simple but complete economy and uses it to examine the behavior of asset prices in this model asset prices and their stochastic properties are determined endogenously one principal result is a partial differential equation which asset prices must satisfy the solution of this equation gives the equilibrium price of any asset in terms of the underlying real variables in the economy in this paper we develop a general equilibrium asset pricing model for use in applied research an important feature of the model is its integration of real and financial markets among other things the model endogenously determines the stochastic process followed by the equilibrium price of any financial asset and shows how this process depends on the underlying real variables the model is fully consistent with rational expectations and maximizing behavior on the part of all agents our framework is general enough to include many of the fundamental forces affecting asset markets yet it is tractable enough to be specialized easily to produce specific testable results furthermore the model can be extended in a number of straightforward ways consequently it is well suited to a wide variety of applications for example in a companion paper cox ingersoll and ross 7 we use the model to develop a theory of the term structure of interest rates many studies have been concerned with various aspects of asset pricing under uncertainty the most relevant to our work are the important papers on intertemporal asset pricing by merton 19 and lucas 16 working in a continuous time framework merton derives a relationship among the equilibrium expected rates of return on assets he shows that when investment opportunities are changing randomly over time this relationship will include effects which have no analogue in a static one period model lucas considers an economy with homogeneous individuals and a single consumption good which is produced by a number of processes the random output of these processes is exogenously determined and perishable assets are defined as claims to all or a part of the output of a process and the equilibrium determines the asset prices our theory draws on some elements of both of these papers like merton we formulate our model in continuous time and make full use of the analytical tractability that this affords the economic structure of our model is somewhat similar to that of lucas however we include both endogenous production and

economic growth energy conservation and emissions reduction a comparative analysis based on panel data for 8 asian pacific countries this study was conducted to evaluate the causality between energy consumption gdp growth and carbon emissions for eight asia pacific countries from 1971 to 2005 using the panel data the results indicate that there are long run equilibrium relationships between these variables additionally causality from energy consumption to co2 emissions was observed generally but there were some opposite relationships also parameter estimations of the panel data model indicate that there are great differences in the carbon emissions the efficiencies of energy use carbon emissions of unit gdp and unit energy consumption between developed and developing countries the base carbon emissions per capita energy consumption and efficiency of energy use in developing countries are far lower than in developed countries however the co2 emissions per unit of energy use is higher although developing countries may reduce their co2 emission per unit energy use total energy consumption will rise rapidly with economic development thus developing countries must determine how to undergo economic growth while conserving energy and reducing emissions to respond to global climate change it is necessary to develop innovative technology for energy use transform the energy structure and conduct the clean development mechanism

the forward bias in the ecu peso risks vs fads and fashions abstract forward rates of european currencies against the private and official ecu exhibit a bias similar to the one found in other data the cumby obstfeld fama cof regression coefficients are systematically below unity and two thirds of them are negative we use the discount of the private ecu relative to the official ecu as a measure of market scepticism or mistrust in one view this sentiment is based on peso risk fears of realignments and possibly also the risk of a meltdown of the private ecu relative to the official one alternatively the discount just reflects fads and fashions dichotomizing the data on the basis of the size of the discount in the private ecu we find that the cof beta strongly depends on the degree of mistrust and that the negative cof coefficients are generated by typically less than 20 of the data but the pattern fits the fads and fashion view better than the peso theory if the sentiment factor contains a conventional risk premium at all then this risk premium is definitely not the one predicted by bansal bansal r 1997 an exploration of the forward premium puzzle in currency markets review of financial studies 10 369 403 nor is the sentiment factor proxying for huisman et al s huisman r koedijk k kool c nissen f 1998 extreme support for uncovered interest parity journal of international money and finance 17 211 228 transaction cost effects

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from the economic community of west african states ecowas access to modern energy is believed to be a prerequisite for sustainable development poverty alleviation and the achievement of the millennium development goals however theoretical models and empirical results offer conflicting evidence on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth that we remain largely unsure of the cause and effect nature of this relationship if indeed a relationship exists at all this paper tests in a panel context the long run relationship between energy access and economic growth for fifteen african countries from 1980 to 2008 by using recently developed panel cointegration techniques we adopt a three stage approach consisting of panel unit root panel cointegration and granger causality tests to study the dynamic causal relationships between energy consumption energy prices and growth as well as relationship between electricity consumption prices and growth results show that gdp and energy consumption as well as gdp and electricity move together in the long run by estimating these long run relationships and testing for causality using panel based error correction models we found unidirectional long run and short run causality the causality is running from gdp to energy consumption in the short run and from energy consumption to gdp in the long run there is also evidence of unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to gdp in the long run this study thus provides empirical evidence of long run and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth for our sample of fifteen countries suggesting that lack or limited access to modern energy services could hamper economic growth and compromise the development prospects of these countries

are real interest rates equal across countries an empirical investigation of international parity conditions this paper conducts empirical tests of the equality of real interest rates across countries the empirical evidence strongly rejects the hypothesis of real rate equality and the joint hypotheses of uncovered interest parity and ex ante relative ppp or the unbiasedness of forward rate forecasts and ex ante relative ppp the evidence suggests that it is worth studying open economy macroeconomic models which allow 1 domestic real rates to differ from world rates 2 time varying risk premiums in the forward market or 3 deviations from ex ante relative ppp the relationship of real interest rates across countries is of central importance to our understanding of open economy macroeconomics in some models where there is costless international arbitrage in goods and financial assets real interest rates for comparable securities should be equal across countries this has been a feature of much of the early research in the monetary approach to exchange rates e g frenkel 11 and bilson 2 on the other hand finance theory indicates that risk premia may well differ for comparable securities denominated in different currencies solnick 27 roll and solnick 26 stulz 28 fama and farber 7 hansen and hodrick 17 and dornbusch 6 and more recent theoretical models in the exchange rate literature such as dornbusch 5 frankel 10 and mussa 24 depend on real rates differing between countries in the short run the proposition that real rates are equal across countries is worth studying

the relationship among natural gas energy consumption capital and economic growth bootstrap corrected causality tests from g 7 countries abstract this paper examines the relationship between natural gas consumption economic growth and capital by using g 7 countries data and a bootstrap corrected causality test for the period 1970 2008 it was found eight significant granger causality relationships for italy the granger causality is from natural gas consumption to growth and united kingdom adverse for pattern of france germany and united states there is two sided granger causality between natural gas and growth

the covariation of risk premiums and expected future spot exchange rates abstract eugene fama 1984 analyzed the variability and the covariation of risk premiums and expected rates of depreciation we employ three statistical techniques that do not suffer from a potential bias in fama s analysis but we nevertheless conffirms his findings in contrast to his interpretation the results are not necessarily at variance with the predictions of a theoretical model of the risk premium increases in expected rates of depreciation of the dollar relative to five foreign currencies are positively correlated with increases in the expected profitability of purchasing these currencies in the forward market and risk premiums have larger variancies than expected rates of depreciation

an equilibrium model of exchange rate determination and asset pricing with nontraded goods and imperfect information this paper presents a two country model with maximizing households stochastic production stochastic money growth and perfect capital mobility because of the presence of nontraded goods households in different countries consume different goods analytic solutions are presented for the nominal exchange rate the real exchange rate nominal interest rates and real interest rates it is shown that the model is compatible with some important features of the real world behavior of exchange rates when households are imperfectly informed about the distribution of money growth the exchange rate exhibits patterns of overshooting and is more volatile than the ratio of the money stocks copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

income level and the energy consumption gdp nexus evidence from sub saharan africa this study tests the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in sub saharan africa using a panel co integration approach country level time series data of energy consumption and economic growth are pooled and used to estimate the model sub saharan african countries in the sample are classified into low income and middle income countries the findings support the neutrality hypothesis in the short run except for middle income countries and a strong causation running in both directions is found in the long run the different results for low and middle income countries provide evidence of the importance of income level in the causal relationship this study helps to explain the interdependence of energy consumption and economic growth in sub saharan africa results are critical in formulating sustainable development policies that are geared to the efficient allocation of resources which are expected to increase access to energy services in the study region

corruption and development a review of issues in this paper we start with a discussion of some of the different denotations of the problem of corruption we then consider the ways in which the damaging consequences of corruption operate in a developing economy while not ignoring its possible redeeming features in some cases we pursue the question of why corruption is perceptibly so different in different societies and also persistent finally we examine the feasible policy issues that arise in this context

an examination of uncovered interest rate parity in segmented international commodity markets we examine the effect of segmented commodity markets on the relation between forward and future spot exchange rates in a dynamic economy we calculate the slope coefficient in our theoretical economy from regressing exchange rate changes on forward premia with reasonable parameter values the slope coefficient is less than unity however even for extreme parameters the slope is not less than zero as found in the data a negative slope coefficient in a nominal version of the model requires the covariance between monetary shocks and relative output shocks to be significantly negative in contrast to the covariance in the data one of the most studied relations in international finance is that between forward exchange rates and future spot rates empirical tests typically find that when one regresses changes in spot rates on forward premia the slope coefficient is less than one and often negative this result is called the forward bias anomaly and implies that the returns from investing in forward exchange contracts are predictable our objective is to examine the effect of segmentation of international commodity markets on the relation between the forward premium and the change in the spot rate segmentation of commodity markets is modeled by introducing a cost for transferring goods across countries giving rise to deviations from purchasing power parity ppp in this article we first derive the theoretical implications of the effect of segmentation on the forward bias in a dynamic general equilibrium model and then analyze a calibrated version of the model our analysis serves as a useful benchmark to study how much of the predictable deviations from uncovered interest parity uip can be explained by endogenous deviations from ppp

changing beliefs and systematic rational forecast errors with evidence from foreign exchange this paper addresses a new interpretation to the appearance in the early 1980s of systematic errors in forecasting the dollar exchange rate following a change in the process of a fundamental variable market participants revise their beliefs about the process using bayes rule since the market does not immediately recognize the change forecast errors are on average wrong during a period when the market is rationally learning for conservative parameter values the learning behavior of the dollar exchange rate in the early 1980s appears consistent with about half of the dollar s underprediction implied by the forward market copyright 1989 by american economic association

pay equality and industrial politics personnel managers often argue that equitable pay treatment manifested as wage compression is useful because it reduces disharmony among workers but it is far from obvious that a compressed salary structure is morale improving since better workers may feel disenchanted by this scheme however when workers rewards are based on relative comparisons salary compression reduces uncooperative behavior that is detrimental to the firm relative comparisons imply that some reference group must be selected the major result is that within the relevant groups some wage compression is efficient

energy consumption and economic growth nexus in portugal italy greece spain and turkey an ardl bounds test approach 1965 2009 abstract the paper examines the nexus between primary energy consumption and growth in portugal italy greece spain and turkey pigst with annual time series data from 1965 to 2009 pigst are southern european economies which have experienced several episodes that make them of particular interest to the study of periods of economic expansion and stagnation an ardl bounds test approach is a suitable technique to examine energy growth nexus within the context of countries with both sporadic shocks outliers and permanent shocks structural breaks empirical results suggest bidirectional causality between energy and growth in both the long run and short run supporting the feedback hypothesis the results reveal themselves to be robust to panel framework an energy conservation policy will reduce gdp growth while a saving phenomenon is observed since one additional unit of product requires less than one unit of energy

accounting for forward rates in markets for foreign currency absteract forward and spot exchange rates between major currencies imply large standard deviations of both predictable returns from currency speculation and of the equilibrium price measure the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution representative agent theory with time additive preferences cannot account for either of these properties we show that the theory does considerably better along these dimensions when the representative agent s preferences exhibit habit persistence but that the theory fails to reproduce some of the other properties of the data in particular the strong autocorrelation of forward premiums since the advent of flexible exchange rates in the early 1970s a large body of statistical work has established that forward rates for major currencies are not optimal predictors of future spot rates relevant evidence is reported in studies by baillie lippens and mcmahon 1983 bekaert 1991 bilson 1981 boothe and longworth 1984 cumby 1988 cumby and obstfeld 1984 fama 1984 gregory and mccurdy 1984 hansen and hodrick 1983 hodrick and srivastava 1984 and korajczyk and viallet 1990 a more complete list of references is provided by hodrick 1987 these papers indicate that returns from speculation in forward and spot currency markets are predictable and that the predictable components vary considerably over time a number of alternative explanations have been offered for the predictable variation in foreign currency market excess returns kaminsky 1988 korajczyk 1985 and krasker 1980 suggest that infrequent extreme events may make returns appear predictable in small samples the so called peso problem lewis 1989 argues that rational learning following infrequent changes in the process governing equilibrium prices can explain part of the ex post predictability of currency returns froot and frankel 1989 and froot and thaler 1990 examine the hypothesis that market forecasts of future spot

anomalies foreign exchange most all behavior can be explained by assuming that agents have stable well defined preferences and make rational choices consistent with those preferences in markets that eventually clear an empirical result qualifies as an anomaly if it is difficult to rationalize or if implausible assumptions are necessary to explain it within the paradigm this column will present a series of such anomalies readers are invited to suggest topics for future columns by sending a note with some reference to or better yet copies of the relevant research comments on anomalies printed here are also welcome the address

an empirical analysis of ex ante profits from forward speculation in foreign exchange markets this paper constructs a time series band for ex ante profits from forward speculation and examines the permanent component of the median of the band for six different exchange markets the unpredictability of ex ante profits is rejected using nonparametric tests deviations of ex ante profits from forward premia are attributed to deviations of nominal exchange rates from martingale processes it is shown that movements in the terms of trade are responsible for most of the variability and serial correlation properties of ex ante profits t is by now widely recognized that the forward rate is not an unbiased predictor of future spot rates and that realized nominal profits from spec ulating in the forward market are nonnegligible and highly volatile see e g hodrick 1987 frankel and meese 1987 however the nature of these profits is as of yet undetermined this paper attempts to shed light on this issue by examining the time series properties of ex ante profits from forward speculations in six foreign exchange markets i focus on three aspects of the problem first i provide a measure of the range and the variability of ex ante profits two issues with contradictory evidence in the literature see hodrick 1987 and frankel 1988 for refer ences second i relate deviations from uncov ered interest parity to risk and to deviations of nominal spot rates from martingale processes third i link the time series properties of ex ante profits to the behavior of the real exchange rate since ex ante profits are not observable the empirical analysis requires the construction of a time series for the expected future spot rate frankel and froot 1987 ito 1988 cumby 1988 and diebold and nason 1990 have all suggested ways of computing this series here i provide an alternative method for constructing a time series for expected future spot rates and for statistically assessing the properties of ex ante profits expected future spot rates are measured as a 90 confidence band obtained from the simulated recursive distribution for the linear predictor of the series i simulate the distribution of the linear predictor rather than use simple point forecasts in order to reduce the forecast error due to parameter uncertainty an addi tional measure for expected future spot rates considered is a point estimate of the permanent component of the median of the band i use nonparametric tests to examine the rela tionship between ex ante profits and other series nonparametric tests are employed here for two reasons first i am interested in the entire popu lation properties of the data existing results are derived by examining only the first and second moments of the data second efficiency tests are generally based on linear parametric functional forms pagan and ullah 1988 have pointed out problems with these tests when the conditional mean of the data is nonlinear nonparametric tests overcome these problems the results indicate that nominal and real rates do not follow martingale processes that a risk premium rarely explains the behavior of the ex ante profits and that variations in expected terms of trade account for the time series proper ties of ex ante profits

an empirical inquiry into the nature of the forward exchange rate bias abstract this paper tests whether anticipated real exchange rate movements fully account for the systematic time varying discrepancies between forward and future spot exchange rates the data do not reject this hypothesis the results demonstrate that 1 real exchange rate changes are predictable 2 anticipated real exchange rate changes are reflected in the forward bias and 3 information available at the signing of the forward contract is useless in forecasting differences between forward and future spot prices beyond the information s ability to predict real exchange rate changes the results emphasize the importance of real exchange rates in international asset pricing

coal consumption co2 emission and economic growth in china empirical evidence and policy responses this article investigates the relationship between coal consumption and income in china using both supply side and demand side frameworks cointegration and vector error correction modeling show that there is a unidirectional causality running from coal consumption to output in both the short and long run under the supply side analysis while there is also a unidirectional causality running from income to coal consumption in the short and long run under the demand side analysis the results also reveal that there is bi directional causality between coal consumption and pollutant emission both in the short and long run hence it is very difficult for china to pursue a greenhouse gas abatement policy through reducing coal consumption switching to greener energy sources might be a possible alternative in the long run

energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth nexus in bangladesh cointegration and dynamic causality analysis abstract the paper investigates the possible existence of dynamic causality between energy consumption electricity consumption carbon emissions and economic growth in bangladesh first we have tested cointegration relationships using the johansen bi variate cointegration model this is complemented with an analysis of an auto regressive distributed lag model to examine the results robustness then the granger short run the long run and strong causality are tested with a vector error correction modelling framework the results indicate that uni directional causality exists from energy consumption to economic growth both in the short and the long run while a bi directional long run causality exists between electricity consumption and economic growth but no causal relationship exists in short run the strong causality results indicate bi directional causality for both the cases a uni directional causality runs from energy consumption to co 2 emission for the short run but feedback causality exists in the long run co 2 granger causes economic growth both in the short and in the long run an important policy implication is that energy electricity as well can be considered as an important factor for the economic growth in bangladesh moreover as higher energy consumption also means higher pollution in the long run policy makers should stimulate alternative energy sources for meeting up the increasing energy demand

panel estimation for co2 emissions energy consumption economic growth trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries abstract this paper empirically examines the dynamic causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions energy consumption economic growth trade openness and urbanization for the panel of newly industrialized countries nic using the time series data for the period 1971 2007 using four different panel unit root tests it is found that all panel variables are integrated of order 1 from the johansen fisher panel cointegration test it is found that there is a cointegration vector among the variables the granger causality test results support that there is no evidence of long run causal relationship but there is unidirectional short run causal relationship from economic growth and trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions from economic growth to energy consumption from trade openness to economic growth from urbanization to economic growth and from trade openness to urbanization it is found that the long run elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to energy consumption 1 2189 is higher than short run elasticity of 0 5984 this indicates that over time higher energy consumption in the newly industrialized countries gives rise to more carbon dioxide emissions as a result our environment will be polluted more but in respect of economic growth trade openness and urbanization the environmental quality is found to be normal good in the long run

the exchange rate and purchasing power parity extending the theory and tests abstract this paper analyzes the exchange rate in a no arbitrage or real business cycle equilibrium model and provides empirical evidence for this model vis a vis ppp our contribution is to show based on a generalization of the equilibrium model of exchange rates that i the test equation linking the exchange rate to fundamentals should allow for international heterogeneity in time preferences and risk attitudes as well as noise that is the model should not be tested as an exact relation ii empirical work should use levels of variables rather than first differences and iii tests on the existence of long run relations should be complemented by test on the signs of the coefficients our empirical work shows that as a long run relation the generalized model outperforms ppp moreover under the generalized model quarterly deviations from the estimated long term relation have a half life of only four to five quarters

haircuts or hysteresis sources of movements in real exchange rates abstract we empirically assess the importance of two sources of real exchange rate movements in models where ppp holds only among traded goods real exchange rate variation results from relative price movements within countries an alternative explanation relies on hysteretic price setting and nominal exchange rate changes using disaggregated price data from 11 oecd nations we find some support for the non traded goods models for example prices of haircuts in canada and the united states are unrelated in the long run we find stronger evidence to support models that emphasize sticky prices transportation costs or other impediments to frictionless trade

environment kuznets curve for co2 emissions a cointegration analysis for china abstract this study examines the long run relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of china by employing time series data of 1975 2005 in particular the study aims at testing whether environmental kuznets curve ekc relationship between co 2 emissions and per capita real gdp holds in the long run or not auto regressive distributed lag ardl methodology is employed for empirical analysis a quadratic relationship between income and co 2 emission has been found for the sample period supporting ekc relationship the results of granger causality tests indicate one way causality runs through economic growth to co 2 emissions the results of this study also indicate that the carbon emissions are mainly determined by income and energy consumption in the long run trade has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on co 2 emissions

the energy gdp nexus addressing an old question with new methods abstract this paper reassesses the causal relationship between per capita energy use and gross domestic product while controlling for capital and labour productivity inputs in a panel of 30 oecd countries over the past 40 years the paper uses panel unit root and cointegration testing and specifies an appropriate vector error correction model to analyse the nexus between income and energy use in doing so we contribute to an old debate using modern tools that shed a new light there is some evidence that over the very short run bidirectional causality exists our results also show a strong unidirectional causality running from capital formation and gdp to energy usage in the long run the reverse causality found in recent work is lost we then show that we can reproduce these earlier results in our data if we reproduce a slightly misspecified model for the engle granger two step procedure used in these earlier papers our findings thus imply that results are very sensitive to model misspecification and careful testing of specifications is required our results have some strong policy implications they suggest that policies aimed at reducing energy usage or promoting energy efficiency are not likely to have a detrimental effect on economic growth except over the very short run

exchange rate volatility and deviations from unbiasedness in a cash in advance model abstract this paper examines time series properties of exchange rate changes the forward premium and the forward bias in the context of a variant of svensson s cash in advance model the model is solved and simulated using realistic forcing processes whose law of motion is estimated from u s japan data and then approximated by a markov chain although method of moments estimation shows that the over identifying restrictions implied by the model are not rejected it fails dramatically in producing a sufficiently variable risk premium on forward market speculation this result is robust to various pertubations to the model s parameters forcing processes and preference structure the model also fails to match exchange rate and forward premium volatility simultaneously

interpreting the dynamic nexus between energy consumption and economic growth empirical evidence from russia research on the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth is a fundamental topic for energy policy making and low carbon economic development russia proves the third largest energy consumption country in the world in recent years while little research has shed light upon its energy consumption issue till now especially its energy growth nexus therefore this paper empirically investigates the dynamic nexus of the two variables in russia based on the state space model the results indicate that first of all russia s energy consumption is cointegrated with its economic growth in a time varying way though they do not have static or average cointegration relationship hence it is unsuitable to merely portrait the nexus in an average manner second ever since the year of 2000 russia s energy efficiency has achieved much more promotion compared with that in previous decades mainly due to the industrial structure adjustment and technology progress third among bric countries the consistency of russia s energy consumption and economic growth appears the worst which suggests the complexity of energy growth nexus in russia finally there exists bi directional causality between russia s energy consumption and economic growth though their quantitative proportional relation does not have solid foundation according to the cointegration theory

on biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums abstract the hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate has been consistently rejected in recent empirical studies this paper examines several sources of measurement error and misspecification that might induce biases in such studies although previous inferences are shown to be robust to a failure to construct true returns and to omitted variable bias arising from conditional heteroskedasticity in spot rates we show that the parameters were not stable over the 1975 89 sample period estimation that allows for endogenous regime shifts in the parameters demonstrates that deviations from unbiasedness were more severe in the 1980s jel f31

analyzing energy consumption and gdp nexus using maximum entropy bootstrap the case of turkey abstract we employ a maximum entropy bootstrap based framework to analyze the energy consumption and real gdp nexus between 1950 and 2006 in turkey our approach provides more accurate inference in comparison to conventional hypothesis tests based on asymptotic theory it also avoids preliminary testing and shape destroying transformations such as differencing and detrending the bivariate analysis as well as a multivariate framework controlling for exchange rate and oil prices shows no evidence of a causal relation our results are robust to both the number of lags and the time period chosen we also perform a cointegration analysis of the data and point out a common misunderstanding in the literature regarding the concept of causation

the time variation of risk and return in foreign exchange markets a general equilibrium perspective this article successively introduces variable velocity durability and habit persistence in a standard two country general equilibrium model and explores their effects on the variability of exchange rate changes forward premiums and the foreign exchange risk premium a new feature of the model is that agents make decisions at a weekly frequency and face conditionally heteroskedastic shocks nevertheless even the most complex model fails to deliver sufficiently variable risk premiums without causing forward premiums and exchange rates to be excessively variable unlike previous models the model can roughly match the persistence of forward premiums article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

a dynamic model of corruption deterrence abstract this paper presents a model of corruption deterrence with a simple overlapping generations structure built into it a crucial assumption is that when corruption becomes more prevalent in the economy it is harder to audit a corrupt official effectively it is shown that this assumption may give rise to several stationary equilibrium levels of corruption this possibility has been exploited to explain why sometimes a government may temporarily resort to an extremely severe deterrence policy and why the same deterrence scheme may imply quite different levels of corruption a case study is provided to give empirical support to the model

is it risk explaining deviations from uncovered interest parity abstract this paper analyzes ex ante returns to forward speculation and asks if these returns can be explained by models of a foreign exchange risk premium after presenting evidence that both nominal and real expected speculative profits are nonzero the paper examines if real returns to forward speculation are consistent with consumption based models of risk premia estimates of the conditional covariance between real speculative returns and real consumption growth are presented and like ex ante returns to forward speculation they exhibit statistically significant fluctuations over time and often change sign

literature survey on the relationships between energy environment and economic growth abstract the aim of this study is to exhibit an exhaustive survey which is related to the great flight of the literature of energy environment growth nexus at the individual and regional scale studies covering the period from 1978 to 2014 the survey takes into consideration the sample country region etc periods covering econometric strategies and conclusions our survey is based on the causality direction among i the energy use variables electricity nuclear renewable and non renewable and output growth ii between economic growth and environment and between the three variables at the same time globally these surveys provide paradoxical and not conclusive results which energy consumption can boost economic growth through the productivity enhancement and it can boost also the environmental damages through the enhancement of pollutant emissions our survey sheds more the lights on the energy environment growth literature by giving an extensive listing 1978 2014 of these causal linkages among the energy use variables environment and economic growth for both individual and collective cases there is a unanimous consensus about the importance of dealing with such dynamic relationship which is seems to be a cornerstone element in setting any ambition strategies energy ecological and economics

a theory of dissimilarity between stochastic discount factors this paper proposes a measure of dissimilarity between stochastic discount factors sdfs in different economies the sdfs are made comparable using the respective bond prices as the numeraire the

the long run and causal analysis of energy growth openness and financial development on carbon emissions in turkey abstract the aim of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between financial development trade economic growth energy consumption and carbon emissions in turkey for the 1960 2007 period the bounds f test for cointegration test yields evidence of a long run relationship between per capita carbon emissions per capita energy consumption per capita real income the square of per capita real income openness and financial development the results show that an increase in foreign trade to gdp ratio results an increase in per capita carbon emissions and financial development variable has no significant effect on per capita carbon emissions in the long run these results also support the validity of ekc hypothesis in the turkish economy it means that the level of co 2 emissions initially increases with income until it reaches its stabilization point then it declines in turkey in addition the paper explores causal relationship between the variables by using error correction based granger causality models

what explains the risk premium in foreign exchange returns abstract we decompose excess returns to holding foreign exchange into components associated with deviations from real interest rate parity and purchasing power parity respectively we find that deviations from purchasing power parity account for over 80 percent of the predictable variation in excess returns to holding foreign exchange in the period 1974 1989 and that deviations from real interest rate parity play a relatively minor role jel f31 g12 g15

assessing eco efficiency through the dea analysis and decoupling index in the latin america countries abstract this study was developed according to a two step approach in the first step we provide an investigation of the changes in eco efficiency under constant and variable return to scale while on a second step the evaluation of the decoupling elasticity will be given the impacts of energy economic and environmental determinants inputs on the performance indicators of eco efficiency were calculated as the inverse of the carbon intensity ratio of the gdp over the co2 emissions both from the world development indicators database the changes in eco efficiency and the decoupling elasticity between co2 emissions and economic growth changes data was used for 16 latin america countries according to five year periods from 1994 to 2013 for all the five time span considered it is worth noting that the degree of technical efficiency for the latin america countries is lower than the degree of technological efficiency thus indicating that a portion of the overall inefficiency is due to the fact that these countries are producing below the production frontier rather than to an inefficient use of technology on average the results have confirmed that the technological scale change in energy production is the dominant factor influencing the optimal production frontier in the sample of countries under analysis complementarily according to the mixed results from the decoupling analysis we may conclude that the increase decrease of the co2 per capita emissions was due to other economic and environmental factors rather than to a negative positive effect of the gdp growth rate

economic growth and electricity consumption in former soviet republics abstract this study estimates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth with annual data for the commonwealth independent states countries in three groups of income levels empirical results reveal that electricity consumption and gdp are cointegrated for all these countries furthermore there is a unidirectional causality from electricity consumption to gdp for all groups in the long run effect of electricity consumption on the gdp is negative for the second group of countries which supports the energy conservation policies whereas it is positive for the first and third group of countries which supports the growth hypothesis

energy consumption and real gdp in g 7 multi horizon causality testing in the presence of capital stock abstract this paper applies two recent time series methods to re examine the causal relationship among energy consumption real gdp and capital stock in g 7 countries these methods the dufour et al 2006 journal of econometrics 132 337 362 multiple horizon causality testing and the hill 2007 journal of applied econometrics 22 747 765 sequential causality testing allow to test for non causality in a multivariate framework and can further reveal the time profile of causal effects the presence of causation delays and the direct or indirect nature of the causal effects given the trending nature of the time series employed we further take into account the presence of structural breaks in the form of trend changes our empirical results show that multi horizon causality testing does uncover crucial information with respect to the dynamic interaction among energy consumption real gdp and capital stock while structural breaks do exist and appear to be critical for causality inference in regard to causality direction we find that real gdp dominates in anticipating energy consumption in g 7 countries

a reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship abstract this paper argues that the uncovered interest parity uip relationship is distinct from and more important than the unbiasedness of forward exchange rates as predictors of future spot rates the standard finding that the slope estimate b is roughly 3 in regressions of s t on t 1 s t 1 implies rejection of unbiasedness but not necessarily uip the hypothesis that monetary authorities manage interest rates so as to smooth their movements while also resisting changes in exchange rates is attractive conceptually and is capable of explaining not only the b 3 finding but also several other notable features of the data

a general equilibrium model of international portfolio choice we investigate in a two country general equilibrium model whether a bias in consumption towards domestic goods will necessarily lead to a preference for domestic securities we develop a model where investors are constrained to consume only from their domestic capital stock and where it is costly to transfer capital across countries in this model investors less risk averse than an investor with log utility bias their portfolios towards domestic assets investors more risk averse than log however prefer foreign assets thus this model suggests that it is unlikely that the portfolios observed empirically can be explained by the high proportion of domestic goods in total consumption we investigate in a two country general equilbrium model whether a bias in consumption toward domestic goods will necessarily lead to a preference for domestic assets in an investor s optimal portfolio we constrain investors to consume only from their domestic capital stock and introduce a proportional cost for transferring goods from one country this cost gives rise to endogenous deviations from the law of one price lop thus the home and foreign investors do not hold identical portfolios we show that an investor s optimal portfolio is biased towards domestic equity only if she is less risk averse than an investor with log utility investors with relative risk aversion greater than one exhibit a preference for the foreign asset this is because the exchange rate derived endogenously is negatively correlated with the return on the foreign asset and therefore the translated return on the foreign stock is less risky than that on the domestic stock thus the results of this model suggest that it is unlikely that the preference for domestic assets that is observed empirically can be explained by the high proportion of domestic goods in total consumption there exists a considerable body of literature documenting the gains from international diversification grubel 1968 was the first to propose that international diversification allows investors to attain lower return variances than those achievable by diversifying domestically this proposition relies on the correlation between stock indices across countries being significantly less

regional differences in the dynamic linkage between co2 emissions sectoral output and economic growth environmental degradation measured by co2 emissions is a significant challenge to sustainable economic development owing to significant differences in the empirical relationship between the economic growth and co2 emissions and policies adopted by different countries to overcome the challenge are not decisive this study aims to generalize our knowledge about the relationship between co2 emissions per capita and economic growth across the world for 1980 2009 periods besides it explores whether the transformation of different economies e g agrarian to industrial and industrial to sophisticated service economy over the past few decades yielded any significant positive impact towards sustainable economic development by reducing the level of co2 emission empirical results suggest that i except for high income countries environmental kuznets curve ekc is a general phenomenon across the world and ii the transformation of different economies towards a service economy has produced more pollution in high income countries and less pollution in low and middle income countries

energy consumption income and carbon emissions in the united states abstract this paper investigates the effect of energy consumption and output on carbon emissions in the united states earlier research focused on testing the existence and or shape of an environmental kuznets curve without taking energy consumption into account we investigate the granger causality relationship between income energy consumption and carbon emissions including labor and gross fixed capital formation in the model we find that income does not granger cause carbon emissions in the us in the long run but energy use does hence income growth by itself may not become a solution to environmental problems

conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market abstract we investigate the existence of a risk premium in the foreign exchange market based on the conditional variance of market forecast errors the forecast errors are assumed to follow the arch process introduced by engle 1982 estimation and diagnostic testing of the model are discussed and results are presented for the currencies of the united kingdom france germany japan and switzerland