efficient mechanisms for bilateral trading we consider bargaining problems between one buyer and one seller for a single object the seller s valuation and the buyer s valuation for the object are assumed to be independent random variables and each individual s valuation is unknown to the other we characterize the set of allocation mechanisms that are bayesian incentive compatible and individually rational and show the general impossibility of ex post efficient mechanisms without outside subsidies for a wide class of problems we show how to compute mechanisms that maximize expected total gains from trade and mechanisms that can maximize a broker s expected profit journal of economic literature classification number 026

training and employee mobility in the british private and public sectors the realization of the value of training for employees can take time as the training contributes dynamically to an extended development process this research examines the empirical returns to training in three post training situations when the employee remains in the same job and with the same employer when the employee transfers to a different job but remains with the same employer internal mobility and when the employee moves to a different employer external mobility panel data and fixed effects fe methodology are used to quantify the joint effects of in job training and mobility while minimizing the potentially biasing effect of unobserved ability in a period when public sector employment in britain was contracting sharply the short term returns to training are nonetheless greater in the public sector while the medium term returns for both public sector and private sector employees depend on remaining within sector the general specific training mix institutional influences adverse selection and the concept of transferable training all contribute to interpretation

the intergenerational earnings and income mobility of canadian men evidence from longitudinal income tax data our objective is to obtain an accurate estimate of the degree of intergenerational income mobility in canada we use income tax information on about 400 000 father son pairs and find intergenerational earnings elasticities to be about 0 2 earnings mobility tends to be slightly greater than income mobility but nonparametric techniques uncover significant nonlinearities in both of these relationships intergenerational earnings mobility is greater at the lower end of the income distribution than at the upper end and displays an inverted v shape elsewhere intergenerational income mobility follows roughly the same pattern but is much lower at the very top of the income distribution

improving willingness to pay estimates for quality improvements through joint estimation with quality perceptions willingness to pay for quality change may depend on heterogeneous perceived quality levels contingent valuation studies should include measures of quality perceptions as covariates in the willingness to pay model in order to avoid omitted variable bias variation in quality perceptions across respondents leads to a potential endogeneity of quality perceptions i address the potential for endogeneity bias using an instrumental variables approach in which a measure of quality perceptions is included as a determinant of willingness to pay and is simultaneously determined by various exogenous factors the willingness to pay model is estimated jointly with quality perceptions allowing for correlation of the error terms using data on willingness to pay for water quality improvements in the neuse river in north carolina i reject exogeneity of perceived quality correcting for endogeneity improves the measurement of willingness to pay by differentiating willingness to pay among respondents with heterogeneous quality perceptions

two sided uncertainty and up or out contracts a bilateral moral hazard problem provides a rationale for up or out employment contracts the employer sets a wage higher than opportunity cost to induce the worker to invest in firm specific capital if the individual does not make the grade it is in the firm s interest ex post to fire him had the initial arrangement not included provisions for firing individuals the firm would underreport the value of the employee wrecking the incentive scheme the basic model permits both firm and worker to be risk neutral therefore it admits a straightforward multiperiod extension which we also investigate

investments holdup and the form of market contracts the authors analyze incomplete contracts to induce efficient investment with exogenous switching costs fixed price contracts are efficient generate some rigidity in prices are renegotiated intermittently by possibly small amounts and when inflation is positive generate asymmetric responses to shocks all consistent with evidence on prices and wages with two sided specific investments efficiency requires prices to have sufficient escalator clauses to avoid renegotiation as observed in many long term contracts a third case with one sided specific investments can generate take or pay contracts and explain why firms sometimes pay for specific investments that appear to benefit employees directly

labor market performance as a determinant of migration in a comparison of migrants with nonmigrants both observed and unobservable productivity factors are relevant this paper focuses more on the unobservable factors and their correlation between places of origin and destination a human capital model of migration demonstrates that more productive workers at the origin would choose to migrate only if the correlation between origin and destination factors is strongly positive longitudinal data drawn from the cote d ivoire living standards survey 1985 86 are used to examine the pattern of migration in the light of labor market performance both of wage employees and non farm self employed workers it is found that indeed the more productive workers migrate furthermore the general direction of migration is toward cities the conclusion is therefore that rural areas lose their productive workers and that urban areas may gain in productivity from the geographical shifts in population

endogenous trade policy through majority voting an empirical investigation abstract the median voter approach to trade policy determination within a heckscher ohlin framework as in mayer am econ rev 74 5 1984 970 predicts that an increase in inequality holding constant the economy s overall relative endowments raises trade barriers in capital abundant economies and lowers them in capital scarce economies we find support for this prediction using cross country data on inequality capital abundance and diverse measures of protection we perform certain robustness checks that include controlling for the effects of political rights and schooling as well as using alternative datasets on factor endowments

fertilizer subsidies and private market participation the case of kano state nigeria this article estimates the effect of a fertilizer voucher program on farmer participation in the private fertilizer market in nigeria using a double hurdle model to address corner solution challenges with estimating input demand and a control function approach to account for the endogeneity of subsidized fertilizer acquired the study finds evidence that receiving subsidized fertilizer in kano nigeria increased both the probability and extent of participation in the private fertilizer market findings demonstrate that under certain circumstances e g where input dealers links to farmer are weak there could be significant gains from the temporary use of voucher programs to strengthen such links

government fertilizer subsidy and commercial sector fertilizer demand evidence from the federal market stabilization program fmsp in nigeria abstract we examine how the previous fertilizer subsidy program in nigeria fmsp affected the demand for commercial fertilizer we apply an endogenous double hurdle model to a pseudo panel and cross section data of farm households the methodology accounts for potential endogeneity of commercial fertilizer price with subsidy our specification is also appropriate where few farmers report the use of both subsidized and commercial fertilizer we find that 100 kg of subsidized fertilizer supplied to a farm household reduced the probability of its participation into commercial fertilizer market by 10 21 points while not affecting fertilizer use upon participation

productivity gains from geographic concentration of human capital evidence from the cities abstract based on recent theoretical developments the argument is made that the average level of human capital is a local public good cities with higher average levels of human capital should therefore have higher wages and higher land rents after conditioning on the characteristics of individual workers and dwellings this prediction is supported by data for standard metropolitan statistical areas smsas in the united states where the smsa average levels of formal education and work experience are used as proxies for the average level of human capital the alternative explanations of omitted smsa variables and self selection are evaluated an estimate of the effect of an additional year of average education on total factor productivity is computed

trends in intergenerational income mobility previous studies of recent u s trends in intergenerational income mobility have produced widely varying results partly because of large sampling errors by making more efficient use of the available information in the panel study of income dynamics we generate more reliable estimates of the recent time series variation in intergenerational mobility our results which pertain to the cohorts born between 1952 and 1975 do not reveal major changes in intergenerational mobility

employer provided training and knowledge spillovers evidence from italian local labour markets croce g and ghignoni e employer provided training and knowledge spillovers evidence from italian local labour markets regional studies following suggestions from the literature on agglomeration and on social returns to education this paper aims to uncover the relationship between local human capital and training the results are consistent with the prediction that training should be more frequent in areas where the aggregate educational level is higher this result is confirmed when different definitions of local human capital are adopted or different subsamples are considered this paper also coped with the problem of omitted variables and spatial sorting by means of a two step strategy based on instrumental variables croce g et ghignoni e une formation assuree par l employeur et les retombees de connaissance des preuves provenant des bassins d emploi locaux en italie regional studies en reponse a des propositions avancees dans la documentation sur l agglomeration et sur le rendement social d

transfer benefits from public works employment evidence for rural india current knowledge provides little guidance on one of the key questions in evaluating public employment schemes aimed at directly reducing poverty what are the net income gains to participating workers this paper offers an answer for rural public employment in two villages in the state of maharashtra in india a model of intrahousehold time allocation is proposed and estimates are made using household data over six years the empirical implementation indicates that the projects induce significant behavioral responses transfer benefits are large and are greatly underestimated using prevailing market wage rates for similar work to estimate forgone incomes copyright 1994 by royal economic society

breaking the caste barrier intergenerational mobility in india we contrast the intergenerational mobility rates of the historically disadvantaged scheduled castes and tribes sc st in india with the rest of the workforce in terms of their education attainment occupation choices and wages using survey data from successive rounds of the national sample survey between 1983 and 2005 we find that intergenerational education and income mobility rates of sc sts have converged to non sc st levels during this period moreover sc sts have matched non sc sts in occupation mobility rates we conclude that the last 20 years of structural changes in india have coincided with a breaking down of caste based barriers to socioeconomic mobility

monetary incentives on inter caste marriages in india theory and evidence abstract we study the effect of a policy in india that offers monetary incentives to inter caste marriages in which one of the spouses is of historically disadvantaged castes i e scheduled castes and the other is not we show that in theory the monetary incentives increase the incidence of exogamy but may reduce the welfare of certain caste or gender building on our theoretical analysis we estimate the effect of the monetary incentives on the incidence of exogamy the welfare and inter spousal transfers using national family and health survey data we find that a 10 000 rupee increase in the incentive raises the exogamy between scheduled caste men and non scheduled caste women by 4 percent in rural india however we also find that the same increase reduces the welfare of women in rural areas

the relationship between hours of work and labor force participation in four models of labor supply behavior this article analyzes the relationship between hours of work and labor force participation lfp in heckman s model cogan s fixed cost model moffitt s minimum hours constraint model and a generalized version of heckman s model first the parameter restrictions between the lfp and reduced form hours of work equations are compared the models are then estimated and the results support the weakening of the link between the lfp and hours of work decisions one implication of the analysis is that heckman s model overstates the standard labor supply elasticities because it confounds the direct effect on labor supply with the participation effect

the excess sensitivity of layoffs and quits to demand excessive layoffs in bad times and excessive quits in good times both stem from the same weakness in practical employment arrangements the specific nature of worker firm relations creates a situat

intra firm wage compression and coverage of training costs evidence from linked employer employee data the author uses german linked employer employee data to estimate the impact of intra firm wage dispersion on the probability that establishments pay for further training about half of all establishments in the estimation sample cover all direct and indirect training costs which contradicts the standard human capital approach with perfect labor markets the main finding of cross section panel and instrumental variable probit estimations is that establishments with larger intra firm wage compression are more likely to cover all direct and indirect training costs which is consistent with theoretical considerations of the new training literature about imperfect labor markets

firm level determinants of international certification evidence from ethiopia summary this paper investigates a wide range of plausible determinants of international certification ic in ethiopia while past studies focus on the effect of international laws the findings of this paper suggest that domestic pressure and firm capability are also equally important besides export orientation we find international connectivity sources of finance such as credit from local banks or local customers and manager s human capital as significant determinants of ic once such factors are controlled for firm size sector and nationality of owner appear not to matter furthermore we find that certification may not necessarily enhance business performance in the short run

a life cycle consistent empirical model of family labour supply using cross section data this paper estimates a utility maximising model of the joint determination of male and female labour supplies using a sample of married couples from the u k family expenditure survey the emphasis is on the estimation of within period preferences that are consistent with intertemporal two stage budgeting under uncertainty however the approach we adopt provides an alternative method of estimating certain aspects of life cycle behaviour to the fixed effects constant approach of heckman and macurdy 1980 macurdy 1981 and browning deaton and irish 1985 moreover it relaxes some of the underlying restrictions that are implicit in these constant models under uncertainty

a framework for understanding differences in labor turnover and human capital investment abstract we analyze the causes and the welfare consequences of international differences in labor turnover and human capital investment the framework incorporates different views as special cases conditions are identified under which multiple equilibria or differences in deep economic parameters explain the observed differences in labor practices we show that when there is an informational problem regarding job changing workers quality general human capital like firm specific human capital can also affect labor turnover and that better job matching is obtained at the expense of lower human capital investment given multiple equilibria a high turnover equilibrium is found superior in the pareto sense to a low turnover equilibrium if matching uncertainty is large the reverse is true when matching uncertainty is small

industrial centralization in indonesia in certain situations economic liberalization policies can increase the degree of spatial centralization of resources and spatial concentration of manufacturing in large metropolitan areas in addition historical patterns of location make it difficult to alter the degree of centralization this article explores these issues by specifying and estimating a nested logit model of industrial location of manufacturing activity in java focusing on the unincorporated sector the results indicate that plants strongly prefer locations with mature plants in related industries which offer a built up stock of local knowledge in addition the 1983 liberalization in indonesia was associated with increased centralization of the unincorporated sector although the liberalization gave unincorporated firms better access to government and other centralized services firms needed to centralize to take advantage of these opportunities because the bureaucratic process is centralized and communications are poor the relative increased growth of the corporate sector following liberalization may also have helped to further draw unincorporated plants into centralized locations

cross country differences in intergenerational earnings mobility international studies of the extent to which economic status is passed from one generation to the next are important for at least two reasons first each study of a particular country characterizes an important feature of that country s income inequality second comparisons of intergenerational mobility across countries may yield valuable clues about how income status is transmitted across generations and why the strength of that intergenerational transmission varies across countries the e rst section of this paper explains a benchmark measure of intergenerational mobility commonly used in u s studies the second section summarizes comparable empirical e ndings that have accumulated so far for countries other than the united states the third section sketches a theoretical framework for interpreting cross country differences in intergenerational mobility

firm specific human capital as a shared investment comment employment relationships typically involve the division of surplus surplus can be the result of a good match a monopoly rent or a quasirent that arises because of a specific investment the division of this surplus is of economic interest as it is a determinant of turnover investment and wages gary s becker 1962 argued in the context of specific human capital investments that the incumbent employee and firm will share the surplus this notion was formalized in a prototypical model of surplus sharing as first proposed by masanori hashimoto 1981 the model has been studied extensively among others by h lorne carmichael 1983 robert e hall and edward p lazear 1984 and donald o parsons 1986 while elizabeth becker and cotton m lindsay 1994 provide an empirical application the key feature of the model is the existence of transaction costs both the employee and the firm have ex ante uncertain private information on which they cannot write a contingent contract this makes that they write a nonrenegotiable contract that specifies a fixed wage after this the firm learns the value of the employee s marginal product whereas the employee learns the value of his outside option both parties then decide unilaterally whether to separate or not and inefficient separations may occur the wage is set in such a way as to maximize the expected total surplus the present analysis will consider the role of uncertainty in this model this has not been done before in a rigorous way hashimoto considered only degenerate cases his analysis suggests that the wage will be low when the uncertainty of the market conditions is small and high when the uncertainty of the conditions inside the firm is small parsons 1986 makes a claim that this is actually the case without deriving the result this paper shows that the comparative statics are ambiguous and may well be the opposite of those suggested by hashimoto and claimed by parsons it also provides the intuition that is behind this result namely that uncertainty not only influences turnover but also the option value of the match and its opportunity cost section i briefly summarizes hashimoto s model and shows that without further assumptions the comparative statics are ambiguous section ii derives an explicit solution of the wage section iii briefly considers alternative wage setting schemes and section iv concludes

working wives and food away from home the box cox double hurdle model household expenditures on food away from home are analyzed with the use of the bls 1989 consumer expenditure survey parameterization and distributional assumptions of cragg s double hurdle model are generalized for this purpose and the resulting model outperforms the more traditional ones results suggest households with working wives and those with higher income are more likely to consume food away from home and also to consume more than others wife s age and household size increase the conditional level of consumption education has conflicting effects on probability and conditional level of consumption

intergenerational income mobility in the united states social scientists and policy analysts have long expressed concern about the extent of intergenerational income mobility in the united states but remarkably little empirical evidence is available the few existing estimates of the intergenerational correlation in income have been biased downward by measurement error unrepresentative samples or both new estimates based on intergenerational data from the panel study of income dynamics imply that the intergenerational correlation in long run income is at least 0 4 indicating dramatically less mobility than suggested by earlier research copyright 1992 by american economic association

consumer knowledge and meat consumption at home and away from home we investigate the roles of consumer knowledge and sociodemographic factors in the consumption of meat products at home and away from home censored dependent variables and endogenous dietary knowledge are accommodated by developing and estimating a simultaneous equations system results suggest endogeneity of knowledge and support the system approach to demand functions for meat products dietary knowledge decreases consumption of beef and pork at home and away from home but does not affect poultry or fish consumption in either location men eat more meat and fish than women meat consumption declines with age and regional and racial ethnic differences are present published by elsevier ltd

economic interpretations of intergenerational correlations science itself for example see galton s 1869 study of the eminence of relatives or his 1889 analysis of the heights of parents and children but extensive use of economic theory to interpret these correlations is much more recent using basic economic concepts such as supply demand investment incentives missing markets and so on theorists hope to explain how and why status is correlated across generations economic theory might provide a unified treatment of a variety of socioeconomic indicators such as earnings income occupation or wealth or it might predict how taxes subsidies and economic regulation affect intergenerational mobility and the operation of markets however while the subject matter earnings consumption wealth occupa tion is clearly interesting to economists it could nonetheless be the case that beyond basic questions of measurement economic theory has not improved our understanding of intergenerational mobility goldberger 1989 is quite explicit in this contention by emphasizing the distinction between genes and environment and by using statistical theory as its main analytical tool the paper by samuel bowles and herbert gintis in this issue implicitly concurs with goldberger we take this challenge very seriously what characterizes an economic approach to mobility while biologists and bowles and gintis distinguish endowments and investments by their source genetic versus environmental factors one focus of economic theorists is motiva

can mandated political representation increase policy influence for disadvantaged minorities theory and evidence from india accountable governments often fail to reflect the interests of disadvantaged minorities this paper exploits the institutional features of political reservation as practiced in indian states to examine the role of mandated political representation in providing disadvantaged groups influence over policy making ifind that political reservation has increased transfers to groups which benefit from the mandate this finding also suggests that complete policy commitment may be absent in democracies as is found in this case jel d72 d78 hl 1 h50

worker reciprocity and employer investment in training standard economic theory predicts that firms will not invest in general training and will underinvest in specific training empirical evidence however indicates that firms do invest in general training of their workers evidence from laboratory experiments points to less underinvestment in specific training than theory predicts we propose a simple model in which a firm invests the socially optimal amounts in general and specific training if the worker is sufficiently motivated by reciprocity a reciprocal worker may be willing to give the firm a full return on its investment we present empirical evidence that supports the proposed mechanism workers with a high sensitivity to reciprocity have 15 higher training rates than workers with a low sensitivity to reciprocity

an explanation of international differences in education and workplace training abstract we develop a simple search equilibrium model of workplace training and education based on two features first investment in education improves job related learning skills and reduces training costs by firms second firms with vacant skilled job slots can choose between recruitment from the market and training compared to germany and japan the us has both a higher inflow rate into unemployment and a higher efficiency of the matching process while the combined effect of these differences on the share of educated labor is ambiguous the effect on the percentage of firms undertaking workplace training is to unambiguously reduce it

a theory of quits and layoffs with efficient turnover this paper answers the efficient turnover literature s long silence regarding the quit layoff distinction treating quits as worker initiated separations and layoffs as firm initiated separations i establish that the existence of layoffs is compatible with optimizing workers and firms forming and dissolving employment matches to exploit all the gains from trade the efficient turnover approach is shown to be consistent with many empirical regularities that distinguish quits from layoffs structural implications of the model are tested on data from the psid

portfolio choices firm shocks and uninsurable wage risk assessing the importance of uninsurable wage risk for individual financial choices faces two challenges first the identification of the marginal effect requires a measure of at least one component of risk that cannot be diversified or avoided moreover measures of uninsurable wage risk must vary over time to eliminate unobserved heterogeneity secondly evaluating the economic significance of risk requires knowledge of the size of all the wage risk actually faced existing estimates are problematic because measures of wage risk fail to satisfy the non avoidability requirement this creates a downward bias which is at the root of the small estimated effect of wage risk on portfolio choices to tackle this problem we match panel data of workers and firms and use the variability in the profitability of the firm that is passed over to workers to obtain a measure of uninsurable risk using this measure to instrument total variability in individual earnings we find that the marginal effect of uninsurable wage risk is much larger than estimates that ignore endogeneity we bound the economic impact of risk and find that its overall effect is contained not because its marginal effect is small but because its size is small and the size of uninsurable wage risk is small because firms provide substantial wage insurance

specific investment and wage profiles in labour markets wage contracts like all civil contracts can be renegotiated by mutual consent this is not just a theoretical possibility but one that happens all the time annual wage increases for example are typically the result of genuine renegotiation not the result of formal cost of living escalator clauses this has implications for the effect of wage contracts on specitic investment the possibility of renegotiation reverses a number of the widely accepted arguments about the form wage contracts should take some of the results we show here are

why do firms train theory and evidence this paper offers a theory of training whereby workers do not pay for the general training they receive the superior information of the current employer regarding its employees abilities relative to other firms creates ex post monopsony power and encourages this employer to provide and pay for training even if these skills are general the model can lead to multiple equlibria in one equilibrium quits are endogenously high and as a result employers have limited monopsony power and provide little training while in another equilibrium quits are low and training is high using microdata on german apprentices we show that the predictions of our model receive some support from the data

the roles of destination gender and household composition in explaining remittances an analysis for the dominican sierra two non exclusive hypotheses about what motivates remittances sent by dominican migrants to their rural parents in the sierra are tested a an insurance contract taken by parents with their migrant children and b an investment by migrants in potential bequests results show that the relative importance of these two motives to remit is affected by destination us vs cities in the dominican republic gender and household composition the insurance function is mainly fulfilled by female migrants to the us only when a male is the sole migrant in his household does he play the role of insurer investment by contrast is pursued by both males and females but only among those migrating to the us d 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

intergenerational education mobility and the level of development abstract the main goal of this paper is to analyze the empirical relationship between economic development and intergenerational education mobility by exploiting large regional variation in the level of economic development across turkey we find that educational outcomes of daughters who grow up in more developed regions depend less on their parents educational outcomes we do not find evidence for a similar relationship between development and mobility for males moreover the development level of place of residence during childhood has a stronger positive association with intergenerational education mobility compared to the development level of place of residence during adolesence we find that regions that feature higher school availability greater level of social capital more favorable cultural attitudes toward women higher level of home resources and lower degree of educational inequalities also tend to feature higher degree of intergenerational mobility

patent protection market uncertainty and r d investment the real options investment theory shows that greater uncertainty about market revenues reduces current r d investment by increasing the value of waiting this paper presents empirical evidence that patent protection mitigates the effect market uncertainty on r d investment

human capital investment under asymmetric information the pigovian conjecture revisited this article investigates how human capital investment labor turnover and wages are jointly determined when the current employer knows more about a worker s productivity than potential employers results derived are quite different from or unexplored by the standard human capital theory we show that the information asymmetry can cause an externality distortion in human capital investment because higher productivity due to the investment may not be recognized by the market the investment level increases in the degree of firm specificity of human capital the underinvestment problem is more severe when human capital is general than when it is firm specific

the role of promotion in inducing specific human capital acquisition workers routinely carry out activities that increase their productivity with their current employer for which they are not directly compensated for example a worker may be asked to develop relationships with clients or shop floor staff or he may develop a better understanding of how his firm operates firmspecific human capital of this type is difficult to quantify so that it is likely to be difficult to directly compensate the worker for its acquisition this paper is concerned with designing compensation schemes for employees to induce them to collect nonverifiable firm specific human capital if firms develop reputations for fairly compensating workers for skill collection the vagueness of these skills may not provide a significant incentive problem i consider the case where firms do not have the opportunity to develop reputations as a result the acquisition of human capital is subject to a dual moral hazard problem first noted in kahn and huberman 1988 first a worker only collects skills if there is a promise of a higher wage if he does so second the employer has an incentive to claim that the worker has not collected these skills even when he in fact has in order to save on wage costs so on the one hand it is difficult to repay the worker after skills are collected as the firm has an incentive to renege however the worker cannot be repaid before collecting skills as he has no subsequent incentive to collect them following the institutional literature i assume that the firm can commit to a labor contract which attaches wages to different tasks the principal purpose of the paper is to show that the firm can use this ability to commit to a wage scale for different tasks to induce a worker to collect firm specific human capital in the presence of this dual moral hazard problem where the worker is rewarded for skill acquisition by promotion to another job assume that a worker can be assigned to one of two jobs d and

subsidies and crowding out a double hurdle model of fertilizer demand in malawi this article uses a double hurdle model with panel data from malawi to investigate how fertilizer subsidies affect farmer demand for commercial fertilizer the article controls for potential endogeneity caused by the nonrandom targeting of fertilizer subsidy recipients results show that on average 1 additional kilogram of subsidized fertilizer crowds out 0 22 kg of commercial fertilizer but crowding out ranges from 0 18 among the poorest farmers to 0 30 among relatively nonpoor farmers this indicates that targeting fertilizer subsidies to the rural poor is likely to maximize the contribution of the subsidy program to total fertilizer use

labor supply and taxation in france this paper provides sequential labor supply estimates for french married men and women under specifications analogous to those used by hausman to account for the effects of taxation upon the budget constraint results suggest that even though labor force participation follows the expected pattern work hours are quite rigid most of the variation in the latter being attributed to measurement errors the second part of the paper concentrates on the simultaneous estimation of male and female labor supply conditional maximum likelihood techniques are shown to permit the separate estimation of work hours for both spouses with an appropriate set of instruments aimed at correcting for the biases arising from simultaneity selectivity and the nonlinearity of the budget constraint although consistent the resulting estimates apparently contradict the usual rationality restrictions on family labor supply behavior and seem to confirm the lack of flexibility in work hours

do professional economists forecasts reflect okun s law some evidence for the g7 countries using survey data for the g7 countries we report that professional economists forecasts of changes in the unemployment rate and the growth rate of real output are consistent with okun s law professional economists do not believe in potential asymmetries in okun s law over the business cycle they believe in the classic linear version of okun s law

investment in general training the role of information and labour mobility following the seminal work of becker i964 it is widely accepted in the literature that firms will be unwilling to finance training which workers may use in other firms this paper takes issue with this prediction and suggests that firms will frequently share in the cost of such general training 1 becker argues that a firm which pays for the training of workers in skills of potential use to other firms will lose these workers since other firms bear none of the costs of general training they can attract a worker with such training by outbidding the firm which trained him recognising this absence of property rights over an investment in general training firms will refuse to provide it hence if general training is to take place the trainee will have to pay for it if potential trainees are unwilling or unable to pay general training will not take place a shortage in general training is likely to emerge this may be especially pronounced in developing countries 2 in contrast the outlook for

firm sponsored general education and mobility frictions evidence from hospital sponsorship of nursing schools and faculty this study asks why hospitals provide direct financial support to nursing schools and faculty this support is striking because nursing education is clearly general clearly paid by the firm and information asymmetries appear minimal using aha and survey data i find hospitals employing a greater share of their msa s registered nurses are more likely to provide direct financial support to nursing schools and faculty net of size and other institutional controls given the institutional context i interpret this result as unusually specific evidence that technologically general skill training may be made de facto specific by imperfect and costly mobility

who believes in the taylor principle evidence from the livingston survey abstract the livingston survey data are used to investigate whether economists forecasts are consistent with the taylor principle consistency with the taylor principle is strong for academics and federal reserve economists and less strong for private sector economists

semiparametric bayesian inference for dynamic tobit panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity summary this paper develops semiparametric bayesian methods for inference of dynamic tobit panel data models our approach requires that the conditional mean dependence of the unobserved heterogeneity on the initial conditions and the strictly exogenous variables be specified important quantities of economic interest such as the average partial effect and average transition probabilities can be readily obtained as a by product of the markov chain monte carlo run we apply our method to study female labor supply using a panel data set from the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

demand for a simple weather insurance product in india theory and evidence this article analyzes the demand for a simple rainfall based weather insurance product among farmers in rural india we explore the predictions of a standard expected utility theory framework on the nature of demand in terms of price the basis of the hedge and risk aversion using data from a randomized control trial we find that demand behaves as predicted it falls with price and basis risk and is hump shaped in risk aversion with price sensitivity decreasing at higher levels of basis risk we estimate a negative price elasticity of 0 58 and find that doubling the distance to a reference weather station decreases demand by 18 these results indicate that improving pricing and quality of insurance products can directly increase demand in addition we examine the impact of insurance training relative to other mechanisms designed to increase understanding the evidence suggests that increased incentives to learn or learning by using are more effective at increasing both understanding and demand finally we contribute to the scarce evidence on the demand for insurance over time in terms of our main interventions we find that the effect of premium subsidies persists over time while the impact of investments in new weather stations diminishes and the effect of increased training in the first season seems to disappear during the second season importantly while having previously purchased insurance does not encourage future uptake receiving a payout does this could reflect issues of trust in the product or the insurance company and constitutes an important topic for future research

strength in numbers networks as a solution to occupational traps the new classical theory states that families in low skill occupations with low levels of human capital can stay poor from one generation to the next while families in high skill occupations with correspondingly high levels of human capital stay wealthy despite being endowed with the same level of ability on average this paper proposes an informal institutional mechanism the community based network through which families belonging to the same neighbourhood or kinship group can bootstrap their way out of such low skill occupational traps the insight from the dynamic model that is developed is that once they form new networks providing mutual support to their members and substituting for inherited parental human capital and wealth will strengthen most rapidly in historically disadvantaged communities generating a correspondingly high level of intergenerational mobility these predictions are successfully tested using unique data from india the analysis in this paper coupled with an emerging empirical literature on networks and migration provides a new perspective on mobility in developing countries with restrictive traditional networks decaying even as new networks supporting collective mobility form and strengthen over time

banking market structure and financial stability evidence from the texas real estate crisis in the 1980s abstract this paper examines the relationship between banking market structure and financial stability using data on thrifts a type of banking institution specializing in residential mortgage lending i test two related hypotheses first competition reduces franchise value second reduced franchise value induces risk taking testing the second hypothesis exploits predictions that when hit by an exogenous shock the slope of risk with respect to franchise value becomes more negative because thrifts adopt bang bang strategies and choose minimal or maximal risk using the texas real estate collapse in the 1980s as a natural experiment i find evidence supporting both hypotheses

is there an intrahousehold flypaper effect evidence from a school feeding programme are public transfers targeted toward children neutralised by the household as the theory of altruism implies or is there an intrahousehold flypaper effect whereby such transfers stick to the child this paper studies the impact of a school feeding programme on child caloric intake in the philippines using a quasi experimental methodology the empirical results confirm an intrahousehold flypaper effect indeed they indicate virtually no intrahousehold reallocation of calories in response to the feeding programme in poorer households however children s gains from the programme appear to be taxed more heavily

smallholder participation in vegetable exports and age disaggregated labor allocation in northern tanzania modern agricultural supply chains have been playing an increasingly important role in developing countries and have had significant effects on rural labor markets this article analyses the effects of smallholder farmer participation in export vegetable supply chains in northern tanzania on both household hired labor demand and off farm labor supply using an age disaggregated approach in our sample neither separability nor exogeneity of smallholder farmer participation in export supply chains can be rejected hence we apply lognormal double hurdle models and find that participation in export supply chains positively affects households decision to hire labor from all age groups we also find that it increases the unconditional overall level of hired labor demand while the age disaggregated analysis shows that these effects mostly benefit rural youth however our sample does not allow us to establish statistically significant evidence of an effect on household off farm labor supply although the point estimates point to nonnegligible positive effect sizes

is there a dead spot new evidence on fomc decisions before elections using new data that chronicle the fed s internal forecast of the output gap from 1973 to 1998 this paper tests for an electoral cycle in the decisions of the federal open market committee fomc the paper provides evidence of a dead spot in the committee s decisions before presidential elections for given values of these internal forecasts the fomc is less likely to decide to tighten monetary policy in the year preceding a presidential election than at other times

is there a core of practical macroeconomics that we should all believe with emphasis on the adjective practical and the normative verb should my answer to the question of this session is a resounding yes indeed i spent a good deal of time between january 1993 and january 1996 acting on the belief that there is such a core macro model so i certainly hope it exists this believable core model falls well short of perfection leaves many questions unanswered and is subject to substantial stochastic errors nonetheless it is both useful and extensively used in policy analysis where contact with reality is a necessity and you cannot beat something with nothing it also closely resembles but does not quite match the way macroeconomics is taught to beginning and intermediate but not to graduate students in this short presentation i will describe briefly the main practical elements that i think we should agree on without worrying too much about their theoretical underpinnings then i will turn to two critical failings of the standard macro model which cry out for theoretical and empirical repair my organizing principle is the textbook exposition that has been standard though not universal in teaching intermediate macroeconomics for years the question is how does it differ from the core model used in policy analysis

why do temporary help firms provide free general skills training the majority of u s temporary help supply ths firms offer nominally free unrestricted computer skills training a practice inconsistent with the competitive model of training i propose and test a model in which firms offer general training to induce self selection and perform screening of worker ability the model implies and the data confirm that firms providing training attract higher ability workers yet pay them lower wages after training thus beyond providing spot market labor ths firms sell information about worker quality to their clients the rapid growth of ths employment suggests that demand for worker screening is rising

certification of training and training outcomes abstract external certification of workplace skills obtained through on the job training is widespread in many countries this may indicate that training is financed by workers and certification serves to assure the quality of the training offered by the firm however other evidence shows that general training is financed by firms especially in germany we show in this paper that external certification of training may also be necessary for an equilibrium with firm sponsored training firm financing of training is only possible if firms have monopsony power over the workers after training if the training firm can extract too much of the employment rents however workers may not have sufficient incentives to put forth effort during training certification increases the value training to the outside market and hence to workers making firm sponsored training possible

identifying human capital externalities theory with applications the identification of aggregate human capital externalities is still not fully understood the existing mincerian approach confounds positive externalities with wage changes due to a downward sloping demand curve for human capital as a result the mincerian approach yields positive externalities even when wages equal marginal social products we propose an approach that identifies human capital externalities whether or not aggregate demand for human capital slopes downward another advantage of our approach is that it does not require estimates of the individual return to human capital applications to u s cities and states between 1970 and 1990 yield no evidence of significant average schooling externalities copyright 2006 wiley blackwell

split panel jackknife estimation of fixed effect models we propose a jackknife for reducing the order of the bias of maximum likelihood estimates of nonlinear dynamic fixed effect panel models in its simplest form the half panel jackknife the estimator is just 2 hat theta bar theta 1 2 where hat theta is the mle from the full panel and bar theta 1 2 is the average of the two half panel mles each using t 2 time periods and all n cross sectional units this estimator eliminates the first order bias of hat theta the order of the bias is further reduced if two partitions of the panel are used for example two half panels and three 1 3 panels and the corresponding mles on further partitioning the panel any order of bias reduction can be achieved the split panel jackknife estimators are asymptotically normal centered at the true value with variance equal to that of the mle under asymptotics where t is allowed to grow slowly with n in analogous fashion the split panel jackknife reduces the bias of the profile likelihood and the bias of marginal effect estimates simulations in fixed effect dynamic discrete choice models with small t show that the split panel jackknife effectively reduces the bias and mean squared error of the mle and yields confidence intervals with much better coverage

the economics of private sector training a survey of the literature abstract this survey organizes and summarizes existing theoretical work on private sector training the theoretical models focus on investment efficiency finance and turnover recent developments in the on the job training literature are characterized by strategic interaction between employers and employees and emphasize market imperfections

labour contracts and efficiency in on the job training two sources of inefficiency in the provision of on the job training are examined an externality between firms which arises if there is imperfect competition between firms in the labor market and allocation inefficiency due to asymmetry of information about the value of the trained worker the second source of inefficiency may compound the first various contracts between the worker and the training firm are considered analysis of a simple example suggests that a contract in which the wage is chosen by the firm performs best according to the criteria of reducing both types of inefficiency copyright 1994 by royal economic society

monopsony power pay structure and training although interest in monopsonistic influences on labor market outcomes has revived in recent years only a few empirical studies provide direct evidence on this topic in this article the authors analyze the effect of monopsony power on pay structure using a direct measure of labor market thinness the authors find evidence of monopsony power as firms facing fewer local competitors offer lower wages to skilled labor and trainees but not to unskilled labor the findings have important implications for the economic theory of training as most recent models assume monopsonistic pay setting for skilled labor but not for trainees

the impact of employment quotas on the economic lives of disadvantaged minorities in india abstract india has the world s biggest and arguably most aggressive employment based affirmative action policy for minorities this paper exploits the institutional features of a federally mandated employment quota policy to examine its causal impact on the economic lives of the two distinct minority groups scheduled castes and scheduled tribes my main finding is that a 1 percentage point increase in the employment quota for scheduled castes increases the likelihood of obtaining a salaried job by 0 6 percentage points for male scheduled caste members residing in the rural sector the employment quota policy has no impact for scheduled tribes contrary to popular notion i do not find evidence of elite capture among the scheduled castes the impact is concentrated among members who have completed less than secondary education consistent with the employment results i find that the policy improved the well being of scheduled castes members in rural areas who have completed less than secondary education finally the impact of the employment quota policy varies by state characteristics

unions and efficient training the paper examines the optimal level of training investment when trained workers are mobile wage contracts are time consistent and training comprises both specific and general skills the firm has ex post monopsonistic power that drives trained workers wages below the social optimum the emergence of a trade union bargaining at the firm level can increase social welfare by counterbalancing the firm s ex post monopsonistic power in wage determination local union firm wage bargaining ensures that the post training wage is set sufficiently high to deter at least some quits so that the number of workers the firm trains is nearer the social optimum

does final market demand elasticity influence the location of export processing evidence from multinational decisions in china given the importance many developing countries attach to attracting foreign investors engaged in export processing activities surprisingly little is known about the sensitivity of these investors to local wage differences and the role played by final product market conditions using data on 2 884 foreign invested manufacturing projects in china we estimate the importance of host province wages to firm s location choice and investigate how this sensitivity varies with demand conditions facing the industry in china s largest export market the united states we use the profit function to show theoretically that firms ability to pass wage costs through to final markets matters for location choice and we test the implications of the theory using a control function technique for conditional logit developed by petrin and train as predicted we find that investors facing more elastic demand in the us market are more sensitive to wages across export processing locations taking both the factor intensity of the activity and final market demand elasticity into account we find that investors producing homogenous goods such as metals chemicals and food processing are more likely to be attracted by relatively low wages than those producing differentiated goods we also find that while oecd investors are more responsive to wage differences than are investors from hong kong taiwan and macau they are less likely to choose a location that has received a large share of prior foreign investment

an exogeneity test for a simultaneous equation tobit model with an application to labor supply a test of weak exogeneity in the simultaneous equation tobit model is proposed and illustrated using a female labour supply model estimated using cross section data the test statistic can be simply output from any standard tobit maximum likelihood package and is asymptotically efficient the procedure provides consistent estimators for the simultaneous tobit model whose asymptotic covariance matrix is a simple extension of the usual tobit formula we also provide the lagrange multiplier test of weak exogeneity this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item