central bank intervention and risk in the forward market abstract a two country inter temporal asset pricing model is developed which implies that central bank foreign exchange intervention affects the forward exchange risk premium the model is estimated from daily foreign exchange intervention data for the us german and japanese central banks considerable empirical support is found for the theoretical model with intervention influencing the risk premium in the forward market purchases of dollars by the federal reserve bank are found to be associated with excess denominated returns there is evidence that intervention has increased rather than reduced exchange rate volatility

the spot and forward exchange rates some empirical evidence of singapore this paper studies the foreign exchange market of singapore it examines the hypotheses that the spot exchange rate follows a random walk and that the exoected value of the future spot rate is the current forward rate using various powerful tests that have been developed recently in the economietric literature we reject the two hypotheses convincingly

models of inflation expectations formation a comparison of household and economist forecasts the recent appreciation of the critical role played by expectations of inflation in the behavior of macromodels has stimulated empirical studies of the formation of expectations by different groups time series survey data on expectations of inflation exist now for economists households and businesses these data have been used as independent variables in explaining wage behavior gordon 16 turnovsky and wachter 34 and de menil and bhatta 5 prices turnovsky and wachter 34 and wachtel 36 interest rates gibson 14 hendershott and van horne 19 pearce 30 and mishkin 27 and consumption wachtel 36 generally with a significant improvement in explanatory power they have also been used as dependent variables in attempts to determine how expectations are formed by gordon 15 mullineaux 28 jacobs and jones 20 and figlewski and wachtel 9 for the economist survey van duyne 35 for the household survey and leonard 23 and de leeuw and mckelvey 4 for businesses given their different levels of knowlege of economics and perspectives one might expect that the models used by the different groups to forecast inflation would

testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market a specification analysis abstract this paper evaluates two popular regression methods of testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market for the 30 day canada united states forward foreign exchange market the evidence overwhelmingly indicates that it is inappropriate to treat the structure of the systematic and stochastic components of the test relations as constant over time hence conclusions inferred from parameter significance testing based upon full sample estimation can be very misleading accordingly we argue for a specification analysis of the test relations and more explicit modelling of market fundamentals

testing for the absence of expected real profits from forward market speculation abstract this paper tests for the absence of expected real profits from forward market speculation it contrasts with the literature that has considered opportunities for expected nominal profit from speculation that is profits denominated in one of the currencies these studies assume money illusion on the part of market participants but this paper does not empirical results fail to find evidence of unexploited real profit opportunities

inflationary expectations and the value of u s farm real estate some consistent estimates in a number of recent papers martin feldstein has hypothesized that expected inflation may increase the real value of assets such as farm real estate in this paper simple models of the value of u s farm real estate were developed to test this hypothesis both adaptive expectations and rational interest rate based expectations of future inflation were considered adaptive expectations measures for expected inflation generally suggested a negative impact of inflation on real estate value the interest rate based expectation measures had a positive coefficient in all cases but only in one case out of six was this coefficient significant

adaptive estimation of cointegrated models simulation evidence and an application to the forward exchange market the paper reports simulation and empirical evidence on the finite sample performance of adaptive estimators in cointegrated systems adaptive estimators are asymptotically efficient even when the shape of the likelihood function is unknown we consider two representations of cointegrated systems triangular cointegrating regressions and error correction models the motivation for and advantages of adaptive estimators in such systems are discussed and their construction is described we report results from the estimation of a forward exchange market unbiasedness regression using the adaptive and competing estimators and provide related monte carlo simulation evidence on the performance of the estimators copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

redistribution of funds for teaching and research among universities the case of north rhine westphalia abstract this paper reports on a real application of a performance and success based system for redistribution of funds for teaching and research among universities in north rhine westphalia after a precise description of the decision situation we show how goal programming and distance minimization were applied in order to find a solution on the basis of real data some comments on the results and the quality of the redistribution process conclude the paper

the term structure of euro interest rates and rational expectations abstract this paper analyzes the short end of the maturity spectrum of euro interest rates using recent monthly data the data for the euro franc and euro dm interest rates support the rational expectations hypothesis whereas those true for euro dollar interest rates do not this result is explained by the different approaches used to conduct monetary policy in the usa switzerland and west germany

some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis in management contexts mathematical programming is usually used to evaluate a collection of possible alternative courses of action en route to selecting one which is best in this capacity mathematical programming serves as a planning aid to management data envelopment analysis reverses this role and employs mathematical programming to obtain ex post facto evaluations of the relative efficiency of management accomplishments however they may have been planned or executed mathematical programming is thereby extended for use as a tool for control and evaluation of past accomplishments as well as a tool to aid in planning future activities the ccr ratio form introduced by charnes cooper and rhodes as part of their data envelopment analysis approach comprehends both technical and scale inefficiencies via the optimal value of the ratio form as obtained directly from the data without requiring a priori specification of weights and or explicit delineation of assumed functional forms of relations between inputs and outputs a separation into technical and scale efficiencies is accomplished by the methods developed in this paper without altering the latter conditions for use of dea directly on observational data technical inefficiencies are identified with failures to achieve best possible output levels and or usage of excessive amounts of inputs methods for identifying and correcting the magnitudes of these inefficiencies as supplied in prior work are illustrated in the present paper a new separate variable is introduced which makes it possible to determine whether operations were conducted in regions of increasing constant or decreasing returns to scale in multiple input and multiple output situations the results are discussed and related not only to classical single output economics but also to more modern versions of economics which are identified with contestable market theories

the efficiency of the london metal exchange in this paper the three approaches available to test the hypothesis that the futures price is an unbiased predictor of future spot prices are utilized to analyze the efficiency of the london metal exchange for the period january 1975 december 1983 the first technique uses non overlapping observation and derives a test of this hypothesis using ols the second uses overlapping data and models explicitly the moving average process in the error structure using arma procedures the third uses a fiml technique to estimate a bivariate stochastic stationary process of the spot and futures prices and tests the unbiased predictor hypothesis in the form of complex non linear cross equation restrictions the results conform to the predictions of the unbiased predictor hypothesis regardless of the methodology and or data employed

global oil prices and local food prices evidence from east africa it is widely believed that oil prices impact food prices in developing countries yet rigorous evidence on this relationship is scarce using maize and petrol price data from east africa we show that global oil prices do affect food prices but primarily through transport costs rather than through biofuel or production cost channels we find that global oil prices transmit much more rapidly to the pump and then to local maize prices than do global maize prices suggesting that the immediate effects of correlated commodity price shocks on local food prices are driven more by transport costs than by the prices of the grains themselves furthermore we present suggestive evidence that for markets furthest inland changes in world oil prices have larger effects on local maize prices than do changes in world maize prices

market efficiency in agricultural futures markets market efficiency and unbiasedness are tested in four agricultural commodity futures markets live cattle hogs corn and soybean meal using cointegration and error correction models with gqarch in mean processes results indicate each market is unbiased in the long run although cattle hogs and corn futures markets exhibit short run inefficiencies and pricing biases models for cattle and corn outperform futures prices in out of sample forecasting results also suggest short run time varying risk premiums in cattle and hog futures markets

inflation forecast errors and time variation in term premia the expectations theory of the term strueture is well known to give wrong signals as to the future course of long term interest rates one explanation involves rational time varying term premia however the anomaly may also be due to inflation forecast errors we study survey forecasts of inflation it seems that the respondents forecasts are insufficiently adaptive interest rates reflect expectations similar to the inflation forecasts as a result past survey forecast errors reliably predict premia on u s government bonds

measuring ecological efficiency with data envelopment analysis dea abstract the measurement of ecological efficiency provides some important information for the companies environmental management ecological efficiency is usually measured by comparing environmental performance indicators data envelopment analysis dea shows a high potential to support such comparisons as no explicit weights are needed to aggregate the indicators in general dea assumes that inputs and outputs are goods but from an ecological perspective also bads have to be considered in the literature bads are treated in different and sometimes arbitrarily chosen ways this article aims at the systematic derivation of ecologically extended dea models starting from the assumptions of dea in production theory and activity analysis a generalisation of basic dea models is derived by incorporating a multi dimensional value function f extended preference structures can be considered by different specifications of f e g specifications for ecologically motivated applications of dea

the near optimality of adaptive expectations abstract rational expectations require more information than adaptive expectations and thus must be more costly in a standard macro model the losses associated with adaptive expectations are shown to be very small indeed even for quite large monetary disturbances as a result adaptive expectations may be close to optimal as long as the monetary regime is relatively stable further with adaptive expectations fully anticipated monetary changes lead to large and persistent fluctuations in aggregate output this is true even if only a very small percentage of firms behave adaptively

the implications of mean variance optimization for four questions in international macroeconomics abstract the hypothesis of mean variance optimization has powerful implications transcending particular methods used for variance covariance estimation 1 for conventional estimates of risk aversion substitutability between domestic and foreign securities is close to perfect in the sense that risk premiums are small in magnitude a few basic points and thus cannot explain much bias in forward rates 2 nevertheless as long as risk aversion is not zero foreign exchange intervention still affects the level of the exchange rate proportionately at least to asset supply changes 3 current account deficits also have effects 4 finally dollar depreciation should not be accompanied by appreciation of the mark against the franc

on the performance of universities in north rhine westphalia germany government s redistribution of funds judged using dea efficiency measures abstract in fandel and gal 2001 fandel g gal t 2001 redistribution of funds for teaching and research among universities the case of north rhine westphalia european journal of operational research 130 111 120 a solution for a real process of redistributing funds for teaching and research among the universities in north rhine westphalia in germany according to specific criteria was presented the solution was based on aggregated proportional data and was determined by a negotiation process now that the absolute data with respect to the different subject areas of the universities are available it is studied to which extent the results of the redistribution can be justified by the relative efficiency measures using data envelopment analysis moreover the inefficiencies or slacks respectively in the usage of personnel give reasons to reallocate the staff among the universities or to reduce it correspondingly

competitive pricing behavior in the auto market a structural analysis in a competitive marketplace the effectiveness of any element of the marketing mix is determined not only by its absolute value but also by its relative value with respect to the competition for example the effectiveness of a price cut in increasing demand is critically related to competitors reaction to the price change managers therefore need to know the nature of competitive interactions among firms in this paper we take a theory driven empirical approach to gain a deeper understanding of the competitive pricing behavior in the u s auto market the ability motivation paradigm posits that a firm needs both the ability and the motivation to succeed in implementing a strategy boulding and staelin 1995 we use arguments from the game theoretic literature to understand firm motivation and abilities in different segments of the auto market we then combine these insights from the game theoretic literature and the ability motivation paradigm to develop hypotheses about competition in different segments of the u s auto market to test our hypotheses of competitive behavior we estimate a structural model that disentangles the competition effect from the demand and cost effects on prices the theory of repeated games predicts that firms with a long run profitability objective will try to sustain cooperative pricing behavior as a stable equilibrium when conditions permit for example markets with high concentration and stable market environments are favorable for sustaining cooperative behavior and therefore provide firms with the ability to cooperate the theory of switching costs suggests that in markets in which a firm s current customers tend to be loyal firms have a motivation to compete very aggressively for new customers recognizing the positive benefits of loyalty from the customer base in the long run as consumer loyalty in the market increases the gains from increasing market share by means of aggressive competitive behavior are more than offset by losses in profit margins firms therefore have the motivation to price cooperatively empirically we find aggressive behavior in the minicom pact and subcompact segments cooperative behavior in the compact and midsize segments and bertrand behavior in the full size segment these findings are consistent with our theory based hypotheses about competition in different segments in estimating a structural model of the auto market we address several methodological issues a particular difficulty is the large number of car models in the u s auto market existing studies have inferred competitive behavior only in markets with two to four products they also use relatively simple functional forms of demand to facilitate easy estimation functional forms of demand however impose structure on cross elasticities between products such structure when inappropriate can bias the estimates of competitive interaction we therefore use the random coefficients logit demand model to allow flexibility in cross elasticities we also use recent advances in new empirical industrial organization neio to extend structural estimation of competitive behavior to markets with a large number of products we use the simulation based estimation approach developed by berry et al 1995 to estimate our model a frequent criticism of the neio approach is that its focus on industry specific studies limits the generalizability of its findings in this study we retain the advantages of neio methods but partially address the issue of generalizability by analyzing competitive behavior in multiple segments within the auto industry to see whether there is a consistent pattern that can be explained by theory theoretical modelers can use our results to judge the appropriateness of their models in predicting competitive outcomes for the markets that they analyze a by product of our analysis is that we also get estimates of demand and cost apart from competitive interactions for the market managers can use these estimates to perform what if analysis they can answer questions about what prices to charge when a new product is introduced or when an existing product s characteristics are changed

operational research in education operational research or techniques have been applied from the early stages of the discipline to a wide variety of issues in education at the government level these include questions of what resources should be allocated to education as a whole and how these should be divided amongst the individual sectors of education and the institutions within the sectors another pertinent issue concerns the efficient operation of institutions how to measure it and whether resource allocation can be used to incentivise efficiency savings local governments as well as being concerned with issues of resource allocation may also need to make decisions regarding for example the creation and location of new institutions or closure of existing ones as well as the day to day logistics of getting pupils to schools issues of concern for managers within schools and colleges include allocating the budgets scheduling lessons and the assignment of students to courses this survey provides an overview of the diverse problems faced by government managers and consumers of education and the or techniques which have typically been applied in an effort to improve operations and provide solutions

testing for efficiency and rationality in foreign exchange markets a review of the literature and research on foreign exchange market efficiency and rationality with comments abstract this paper specifies two var models for testing efficiency and expectations in foreign exchange markets the sufficient conditions for efficiency and rational expectations by imposing restrictions on the var parameters are derived based on these models issues on testing efficiency and rationality are discussed with reference to previous empirical studies in the area

a reexamination of the uncovered interest rate parity hypothesis abstract it is now widely known that the uncovered interest rate parity uip hypothesis which states that forward exchange rates are unbiased predictors of future spot exchange rates is generally rejected by empirical evidence we show in this paper by means of a cox et al 1985 model extended to a two country economy that a careful examination of the no arbitrage principle leads to a different formulation for this hypothesis roughly speaking this new formulation states that the expected future spot exchange rate is equal to the forward exchange rate multiplied by a term premium whose closed form expression can be derived moreover this multiplicative term premium reduces to 1 i e the standard uip hypothesis holds if and only if conditional variances are deterministic in short we show that rejection of the standard uip hypothesis is not surprising as long as arch effects have been evidenced in exchange rate data as a by product we provide a parametric and tractable specification for the so called risk premium i e the component of the expected exchange rate in excess of the forward exchange rate

simple foreign exchange market efficiency revisited abstract we present empirical evidence supporting the conjecture that rejections of the simple foreign exchange market efficiency hypothesis could result from the use of statistical tests that while asymptotically valid may have poor finite sample properties

measuring market power in the ready to eat cereal industry the ready to eat cereal industry is characterized by high concentration high price cost margins large advertising to sales ratios and numerous introductions of new products previous researchers have concluded that the ready to eat cereal industry is a classic example of an industry with nearly collusive pricing behavior and intense nonprice competition this paper empirically examines this conclusion in particular i estimate price cost margins but more importantly i am able empirically to separate these margins into three sources i that which is due to product differentiation ii that which is due to multi product firm pricing and iii that due to potential price collusion the results suggest that given the demand for different brands of cereal the first two effects explain most of the observed price cost margins i conclude that prices in the industry are consistent with noncollusive pricing behavior despite the high price cost margins leading firms are able to maintain a portfolio of differentiated products and influence the perceived product quality it is these two factors that lead to high price cost margins

the effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade abstract by assuming real profit maximization and uncertain prices as well as exchange rates we conclude that it is uncertain percentage changes in the real exchange rate that are risky in international trade empirical estimation of fourteen bilateral trade flows among industrialized countries finds a significant negative effect on trade quantity from such risk in a number of these cases the expectation variable has a positive effect in a larger number of cases significant price effects from the expectation variable are fewer and from risk are negligible

cost pass through in differentiated product markets the case of u s processed cheese in this paper we estimate a mixed logit model for demand in the u s processed cheese market the estimates are used to determine pass through rates of cost changes under different behavioral regimes we find that under collusion the pass through rates for all brands fall between 21 and 31 while under nash bertrand price competition the range of pass through rates is between 73 and 103 the mixed logit model provides a more flexible framework for studying pass through rates than the logit model since the curvature of the demand functions depends upon the empirical distribution of consumer types

risk premia and the foreign exchange market the european monetary system versus the rest of the world abstract this paper presents a new test of the hypothesis of uncovered interest rate parity the possibility of investors risk aversion is taken explicitly into account the empirical work investigates proxies for various forms of risk over the period 1974 1 1982 4 between the ems and the rest of the world our results show that investors are sensitive to interest rate risk

noise a firm made trade barrier abstract a dominant domestic firm confronted by a fringe of risk averse importers achieves higher profits by adopting a volatile price policy than by setting quantity according to the standard marginal condition the fluctuating domestic price is equivalent to a tariff on imports for all intents and purposes the local firm raises its rivals costs

arch effects and cointegration is the foreign exchange market efficient abstract extensive empirical work has produced mixed evidence regarding the validity of the unbiased efficient expectations hypothesis in the foreign exchange market empirical analysis in this paper via cointegration techniques produces the same inconclusive results for three currency markets namely the ffr us the dm us and the yen us foreign exchange market however when modeling conditional heteroskedasticity of exchange rates through autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity arch models the results are fairly conclusive the presence of the efficient foreign exchange market hypothesis is found in all these three currency markets

arbitrage cointegration and testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in financial markets we use a no arbitrage cost of carry asset pricing model to show that the existence of coin tegration between spot and forward futures prices depends on the time series properties of the cost of carry we argue that the conditions for cointegration are more likely to hold in currency markets than in commodity markets explaining many of the empirical results in the literature we also use this model to demonstrate why the forward rate forecast error the basis and the forward premium are serially correlated and to develop econometric tests ofthe unbiasedness hypothesis sometimes called the simple efficiency hypothesis in various financial markets the unbiasedness hypothesis is so prevalent in the finance liter ature that many tests for it have been developed we examine four of the common tests and and use our cointegration results to demonstrate why each of these tests should reject the null hypothesis of unbiasedness we find strong support for our hypothesis in the existing empirical literature

market efficiency and cointegration an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets abstract the assumption that the foreign exchange market is efficient that is that agents are risk neutral and use all available information rationally so that the forward exchange rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate is a property often imposed in theoretical international macroeconomic models although a vast empirical literature has evolved to test market efficiency we use recent developments in the theory of cointegration to provide new methods of testing several aspects of foreign exchange market efficiency we ffind evidence inconsistent with market efficiency for both germany and the united kingdom

commodity price inflation retail pass through and market power abstract when commodity prices rise wholesalers and retailers of products derived from basic commodities respond by passing along at least a portion of the price increase to consumers in this paper we examine whether firms respond differently to positive commodity price shocks than to negative commodity price shocks that is whether commodity price volatility alters market power we exploit recent volatility in food commodity prices over the period 2007 2010 to investigate how commodity price shocks translate into market power in two different vertically structured food product industries potatoes and fluid milk for potatoes we find both wholesale and retail market power decreases increases during periods of rising falling commodity prices moreover price cost margins widen a substantially greater degree in response to negative shocks than margins narrow in response to positive shocks indicating that commodity price volatility increases market power for fluid milk we find that market power likewise declines during periods of rising commodity prices however market power does not significantly change during periods of falling commodity prices suggesting that commodity price volatility decreases market power

accounting for forward rates in markets for foreign currency absteract forward and spot exchange rates between major currencies imply large standard deviations of both predictable returns from currency speculation and of the equilibrium price measure the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution representative agent theory with time additive preferences cannot account for either of these properties we show that the theory does considerably better along these dimensions when the representative agent s preferences exhibit habit persistence but that the theory fails to reproduce some of the other properties of the data in particular the strong autocorrelation of forward premiums since the advent of flexible exchange rates in the early 1970s a large body of statistical work has established that forward rates for major currencies are not optimal predictors of future spot rates relevant evidence is reported in studies by baillie lippens and mcmahon 1983 bekaert 1991 bilson 1981 boothe and longworth 1984 cumby 1988 cumby and obstfeld 1984 fama 1984 gregory and mccurdy 1984 hansen and hodrick 1983 hodrick and srivastava 1984 and korajczyk and viallet 1990 a more complete list of references is provided by hodrick 1987 these papers indicate that returns from speculation in forward and spot currency markets are predictable and that the predictable components vary considerably over time a number of alternative explanations have been offered for the predictable variation in foreign currency market excess returns kaminsky 1988 korajczyk 1985 and krasker 1980 suggest that infrequent extreme events may make returns appear predictable in small samples the so called peso problem lewis 1989 argues that rational learning following infrequent changes in the process governing equilibrium prices can explain part of the ex post predictability of currency returns froot and frankel 1989 and froot and thaler 1990 examine the hypothesis that market forecasts of future spot

floating exchange rates in theory and practice similarly within europe exchange rate issues are after nearly two decades since the end of bretton at the top of the policy agenda how will the ems woods what lessons should inform exchange rate be affected by the abolition of controls on capital policy in the 1990s on the world stage the 1980s movements is monetary union necessary to real saw an important change of emphasis the decade ize the goals of 1992 what should the uk be began as the high noon of freely floating exchange thinking about in deciding whether and when to rates individual countries pursued domestic macjoin the ems roeconomic objectives and allowed foreign ex change markets to assess the consequences for the to answer any of these questions it is necessary first right price of different national currencies by the to understand how foreign exchange markets work mid 1980s the strains of wild swings in the internaonly then can we assess the likely outcomes under tional value of the dollar the yen and sterling had alternative policies such as free floating or various led to tentative steps towards the co ordination of forms of exchange rate management international economic policy but how should a more stable exchange rate environment be achieved my purpose is to set out what we know about the is concerted central bank intervention in foreign extheory of exchange rate determination to review change markets sufficient or must there also be the empirical evidence and to draw out some of the broad balance in the fundamentals of national lessons for economic policy macroeconomic policies

the adjustment of canadian import demand to changes in income prices and exchange rates the paper provides estimates of the sensitivity of canadian import demand to changes in income prices and exchange rates the model specification allows for the con sideration of long run elasticities as well as the dynamics of short run adjustment of imports to changes in these variables the estimated long run elasticities obtained are similar to those in previous studies it is also shown that canadian imports react quickly to changes in either foreign or domestic prices but that the reaction to changes in exchange rates is much slower

food versus fuel what do prices tell us abstract sorting out the impacts of biofuels on global agricultural commodity prices is impossible without turning to data and distinguishing between the short run versus the long run impacts using time series prices on fuels and agricultural commodities the aim is to investigate the long run cointegration of these prices simultaneously with their multivariate short run interactions results indicate no direct long run price relations between fuel and agricultural commodity prices and limited if any direct short run relationships in terms of short run price movements sugar prices are influencing all the other agricultural commodity prices except rice with sugar the number one world input for ethanol results indicate increased ethanol production is potentially influencing short run agricultural commodity prices overall results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibria after a demand or supply event shock

explaining forecasting bias the case of real exchange rate variance recent tests of the rational expections hypothesis reh based on the assumption that agents are risk neutral have yielded conflicting results when applied to foreign exchange markets here a two stage procedure which does not assumej risk neutrality is derived from a model of a utility maximizing importer who incurs an adjustment cost if he changes his import order although a short run test based on aggregate imports leads to rejection of the reh in the majortity of cases a longer ren test based on manchinery imports is more favourable to the null huypthesis the observed shot run tendency to in effect ignore low levels of real exchange rate variation is found to be more likely when bilateral rates have remained relatively stable when the importingj economy is relatively closed or when governments have announced policies of intervention to stabilize bilateral rates

world oil and agricultural commodity prices evidence from nonlinear causality abstract the increasing co movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities this study extends the literature on the oil agricultural commodity prices nexus which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices corn soybeans and wheat to this end the linear causality approach of toda yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of diks panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010 the linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis in contrast the nonlinear causality analysis shows that i there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices and ii there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices the findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers farmers and global investors this study also suggests the directions for future studies

measuring synergy effects of a public social private partnership pspp project this article applies the cobb douglas production function to measure synergy effects of a public social private partnership pspp project following a short overview of the literature on public private partnership and in particular on public social private partnership the microeconomic approach of the cobb douglas production function is presented which can be interpreted in this context as a generalised nash solution of cooperative games and opens up the possibility of allocating the synergy effects to the partners of a pspp project the cobb douglas production function is at first briefly analysed with regard to its assumptions implications and consequences and then applied to the pspp project anschub de that was initiated by the bertelsmann stiftung the empirical analysis uses real data and is based on a survey on the project cooperation partners whereby the resources and budget contributions spent are investigated with the help of these budget contributions it is possible to determine relative success variables or synergy effects for the partners

price expectations in the united states 1947 75 it is common to assume that expectations about future inflation influence economic behavior the behavior of an economic system over time is determined in part by the manner in which these expectations are formed theoretical and empirical investigations frequently utilize a hypothesis that agents forecast future inflation rates primarily on the basis of past inflation rates static adaptive extrapolative and regressive expectations adjustment schemes are examples of such forecasting rules 1 but such rules generally ignore the fact that individuals observe prices not inflation rates a change in observed prices can result from general price inflation but it may also result from transitory shocks to the price level or observation error similarly apparent changes in the general inflation rate may be purely transitory in nature or may signify the beginning of a trend a model of inflation expectations should admit the possibility of these different sources of price change and embody the natural human tendency to extrapolate seeming trends this paper examines the extent to which agents reported price expectations are consistent with such naive forecasting a multilevel adaptive expectations model is developed that takes observed prices as the information available to agents on the basis of these prices individuals revise their beliefs about not only the price level but also the underlying inflation rate and trend in the inflation rate when fitted to the livingston survey data the model appears to provide a unified explanation of price expectations in the united states from 1947 to 1975 this is contrasted with earlier investigations suggesting that expectations formation differed significantly in the periods before and after 1960

china s regional natural resource allocation and utilization a dea based approach in a big data environment abstract china s economic reform and opening policy has resulted in china s rapid growth especially in terms of economy the growth however is mainly based on huge consumption of natural resources and that consumption should be reduced by significant amounts to protect global ecosystems emerged in 1980s big data has developed very quickly in recent years bringing new perspectives and opportunities for all kinds of academic fields especially in dea since it is a research highly based on data in this paper we propose a sbm dea model based on natural resource input orientation to evaluate the efficiency of natural resource utilization for 26 provincial regions in mainland china from 2005 to 2012 a dea based approach is developed to allocate a reduced total of natural resources among the 26 provincial regions drawing support from the developments of big data we use each provincial region s previously observed production data to characterize its own production technology which allows a better analysis of how the production will change after allocations of natural resources are reduced our empirical study shows that most provincial regions perform well in terms of efficiency in utilizing natural resources but that is based on huge consumption of natural resources from an area perspective the eastern area of china achieved the highest average efficiency value followed by the central and western areas our study also indicates that the most effective allocation of the natural resources requires about half of the 26 provincial regions to reduce their natural resource consumption while the remaining ones can maintain their original consumption

a test for speculative bubbles in the sterling dollar exchange rate 1981 84 the u s dollar price of the u k pound sterling is tested for a speculative bubble defined as a period with a nonzero median in excessreturns a nonparametric procedure is developed which controls for data mining over the period of flexible exchange rates and finds a negative bubble in the excess return to holding sterling rather than dollar assets during the period 1981 84 possible interpretations arebootstrap equilibria rational bubbles nonsym metric fundamentals and nonrational expectations copyright 1986 by american economic association

a consensual peer based dea model with optimized cross efficiencies input allocation instead of radial reduction abstract data envelopment analysis dea is a method for estimating in efficiencies of decision making units dmus by means of weighted output to input ratios being the weights optimal virtual prices of such ex post activities for all units the cross efficiency matrix then evaluates these output to input relations with respect to all optimal price systems and hence permits efficiency rankings for the dmus by aggregating the matrix entries line and or columnwise in this contribution the classical input oriented dea approach is generalized twofold its first aim is an optimal efficiency improving input allocation rather than a mere radial input reduction the second aim is the choice of a peer dmu the price system of which is acceptable for the remaining units as free input allocation permits substitutional effects and so rises productivities in view of possible peers and for all units it supports such consensual choice numerical examples show the positive effects of the new concept

an empirical comparison of alternative models of capital asset pricing in germany abstract in an empirical investigation this research finds that the capm is a better explanatory model of risk return relationships in the german stock market than the ccapm

the relationship between forecast dispersion and forecast uncertainty evidence from a survey data arch model this paper examines empirically the relationship between measures of forecast dispersion and forecast uncertainty from data on inflation expectations from the livingston survey series and the survey research center src survey series because the survey series do not provide probabilistic forecasts of inflation we derive measures of inflation uncertainty by modelling the conditional variance of the inflation forecast errors from the survey series as an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic arch process the analysis is complicated by the fact that the overlap of forecast horizons for the survey series does not preclude the model s disturbance terms from displaying autocorrelation and also places a restriction on the specification for the arch measures of inflation uncertainty we estimate the model using hansen s 1982 generalized method of moments gmm procedure to account for the presence of serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity in the disturbance terms the results generally support the hypothesis that the measures of forecast dispersion across survey respondents are positively and statistically significantly associated with the measures of inflation uncertainty however the appropriateness of using forecast dispersion measures as proxies for inflation uncertainty is sensitive to the choice of the survey series

an empirical examination of information barriers to trade in insurance this paper uses direct evidence to evaluate whether asymmetric information is a barrier to trade in the largest market for private insurance in the world life insurance we report several findings that seem difficult to reconcile with the conventional theory of insurance under asymmetric information we conjecture that sellers may know their costs of production better than consumers in this market as in those for most other products

brand supermarket demand for breakfast cereals and retail competition the berry levinsohn and pakes 1995 market equilibrium model is extended to the supermarket chain level to examine consumer choices and retail competition for thirty seven brands of breakfast cereals in boston estimated taste parameters for product characteristics vary significantly across consumers although consumers are price sensitive with respect to their chosen cereals they exhibit strong brand and supermarket loyalty retail markups increase and marginal costs decrease with grocery market shares attesting to oligopoly power with efficiencies markups decrease with the own price elasticity of demand with corn flakes having the highest markups a detailed picture of consumer response and supermarket competition is provided

a happy half way house medium term inflation targeting in new zealand abstract the 2002 policy targets agreement pta between the government and central bank of new zealand asks the central bank to target inflation over the medium term rather than over an annual target delegating such a medium term objective to the central bank shifts inflation targeting towards a halfway house between inflation targeting and price level targeting we show empirically that this helps time consistent policy approximate the first best commitment policy even when the government asks the central bank to weight output stabilisation differently to society we estimate the new zealand economy with a small open economy dsge model and show that the happiest halfway house is located around a two year averaging horizon at most which leads to mild improvements in monetary policy efficiency

uncovered interest parity it works but not for long abstract if an investor borrows in a low interest currency and invests in a high interest currency the interest differential accrues in a lumpy manner formally just like the dividend payments on a stock the investor will receive the interest differential discretely at the point when a position is rolled over from one day to the next a position that is not held open overnight receives no interest differential because intradaily interest rates are zero using a large data set of intradaily exchange rate data we run uncovered interest parity uip regressions over different short time intervals taking careful account of the settlement rules in the spot foreign exchange market we find results that are supportive of the uncovered interest parity hypothesis over very short windows of data that span the time of the discrete interest payment however adding even a few hours to the span of the window destroys the positive uncovered interest parity results

investment behaviour of dutch industrial firms a panel data study abstract this study describes a putty clay model of investment for a monopolistic firm in which factor price movements also affect expected output the specifications are tested on a set of panel data for individual dutch industrial firms factor prices are significant and expected output effects of factor prices dominate substitution effects in investment demand corrections are made for attrition and for measurement errors correction for attrition does not make an important difference but correction for measurement errors does

testing the hypothesis of market efficiency in the taiwan us forward exchange market since 1990 this article examines the applicability of the hypothesis of market efficiency in taiwan s foreign exchange market using daily data instead of linear regression based models we consider the possibility that the true data generating process may come from two different distributions and we employ the markov switching approach to analyse this from the results of the two state markov switching model we define state 1 as the efficient state and state 2 as the inefficient one only the 30 day forward rate is able to differentiate between the two states based on the unconditional probabilities from the markov switching model we also find that the 30 day forward rate has a 70 probability in the efficient state which indicates that 70 of all speculators fully extract information when predicting future spot rates while 30 of all investors do not

modelling price expectations an important difference between policy prescriptions based on different macroeconomic models relates to the way in which expectations are modelled in turn different approaches to expectations formation can be characterized in terms of the information available to agents and thus it becomes important to look at as many dimensions of the information set as possible because of the paucity of direct information on expectations many studies have concentrated on the few series of this nature which are available of paramount importance here is the livingston survey data on consumer price expectations however it is argued here that much previous work using these data is flawed through an inadequate consideration of the frequency on which expectations are formed and the information on which they are based

improving the numerical performance of static and dynamic aggregate discrete choice random coefficients demand estimation the widely used estimator of berry levinsohn and pakes 1995 p roduces estimates of consumer preferences from a discrete choice demand model with random coefficients market level demand shocks and endogenous prices we derive numerical theory results characterizing the properties of the nested fixed point algorithm used to evaluate the objective function of blp s estimator we discuss problems with typical implementations including cases that can lead to incorrect parameter estimates as a solution we recast estimation as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints which can be faster and which avoids the numerical issues associated with nested inner loops the advantages are even more pronounced for forward looking demand models where the bellman equation must also be solved repeatedly several monte carlo and real data experiments support our numerical concerns about the nested fixed point approach and the advantages of constrained optimization for static blp the constrained optimization approach can be as much as ten to forty times faster for large dimensional problems with many markets

the rationality of economic voting and the macroeconomic regime since voter rationality plays a major role in theories of political economics it is important for political analysts to investigate the extent of voter sophistication a conventional strategy for addressing this question is to determine what decision rule voters appear to use by estimating rival political support models that embody varying assumptions about voter rationality however under some circumstances such a strategy may be incapable of identifying the descriptively superior model due to an observational equivalence problem the paper estimates the competing political support models under alternative macroeconomic regimes and finds evidence favoring the nonrationalist or adaptive model

energy milk price transmission at the product brand level this article estimates the pass through rates between diesel fuel and retail milk prices at the product brand level using a random coefficient logit demand model and taking the direct and indirect impacts of energy prices this research identifies changes in pass through rates before and after the great recession in 2008 empirical results show that diesel prices significantly impacted the retail prices of milk products and are an important determinant of food price inflation pass through rates are estimated to range from 0 16 to approximately 0 60 through 2008 with an average of 0 22 for the whole period statistical tests indicate that pass through rates before june 2008 were significantly higher than after june 2008 when they dropped significantly to 0 04 to 0 17 interestingly private label brands have the lowest pass through rates implying that compared to manufacturer brands private label prices are more insulated from diesel price shocks

measurement of technical efficiency in public education a stochastic and nonstochastic production function approach 1 introduction efficiency in the public education system is a significant issue in the united states nationwide real expenditure per student in public education increased more than 3 per year between 1960 and 1998 but output as generally measured by standardized test scores has not increased and in some cases e g the verbal sat score has declined one explanation is that resources are not being utilized efficiently there may be productive or technical inefficiency and or allocative or price inefficiency i e given the relative prices of inputs the cost minimizing input combination is not used this paper focuses on the former by evaluating technical inefficiency in public education using data from utah school districts the pioneering work by farrell in 1957 provided the definition and conceptual framework for both technical and allocative efficiency although technical efficiency refers to failure to operate on the production frontier allocative efficiency generally refers to the failure to meet the marginal conditions for profit maximization considerable effort has been made in refining the measurement of technical efficiency the literature is broadly divided into deterministic and stochastic frontier methodologies 2 the deterministic nonparametric approach that developed out of mathematical programming is commonly known as data envelopment analysis dea and the parametric approach that estimates technical efficiency within a stochastic production cost or profit function model is called the stochastic frontier method both approaches have advantages and disadvantages as discussed in forsund lovell and schmidt 1980 dea has been used extensively in measuring efficiency in the public sector including education where market prices for output generally are not available for example levin 1974 bessent and bessent 1980 bessent et al 1982 and fare grosskopf and weber 1989 used this method to estimate efficiency in public education the stochastic frontier methodology was used by barrow 1991 to estimate a stochastic cost frontier using data from schools in england wyckoff and lavinge 1991 and cooper and cohn 1997 estimated technical efficiency using school district data from new york and south carolina respectively grosskopf et al 1991 used the parametric approach to estimate allocative and technical efficiency in texas school districts the recent literature has seen a convergence of the two approaches and their complementarity is being recognized 3 however there is a lack of empirical evidence in the literature about the proximity of these two approaches in measuring technical efficiency policy formulations based on only one of these efficiency estimates may not be accurate because of the inherent limitations of each before any correctional measures are taken the stability of the technical efficiency estimates obtained from a parametric method should be evaluated by comparing them against those found when using the nonparametric method in this study the technical efficiency estimates for each school district using the stochastic frontier method and tobit residuals from the two stage dea model are compared in the twostage dea model technical efficiency scores obtained from dea using controllable inputs are regressed on student socioeconomic status and other environmental factors the residuals of this regression measure pure technical efficiency after accounting for fixed socioeconomic and environmental factors the empirical analysis uses data from the 40 school districts in utah for the academic year 1992 1993 the standardized test score for 11 th grade students is used as a measure of school output and two classes of inputs are included the first class is considered to be subject to control by school administrators and includes the student teacher ratio the percentage of teachers having an advanced degree and the percentage of teachers with more than 15 years of experience

econometric modelling of the sterling effective exchange rate the exchange rate is recognised as a particularly tricky subject for modelling and prediction the problems of unobservables such as expectations of simultaneity and of policy changes both overt and covert in the sample period to which models must be fitted may account for the disappointing results of recent attempts to test theories of exchange rate determination this paper develops an appropriate empirical model to deal with these problems it allows consideration of the proper interpretation of theoretical assumptions and determination of how far modelling for ex ante prediction can succeed the exchange rate is recognised as a particularly tricky subject for modelling and prediction the problems of unobservables such as expectations of simultaneity and of policy changes both overt and covert in the sample period to which models must be fitted may account for the disappointing results of recent attempts to test theories of exchange rate determination see for example the pessimistic conclusions of hacche and townend 1981 the aim of this paper is to develop an appropriate empirical model for these purposes to consider in particular the proper interpretation of theoretical assumptions and to determine how far in this case modelling for ex ante prediction can succeed the core of the model is the view of the exchange rate as a price determined in an efficient market with low transactions costs and well informed transactors in this view the observed rate represents a market equilibrium apart from random deviations and where equilibrium is contingent upon an expected future state of the world the expectations are assumed rational in the sense of being unbiased relative to a given information set the implications of strong and weak forms of rationality in which the information set is either relatively wide or narrow must however be carefully distinguished under the most extreme rationality hypothesis it will not be possible to improve on a simple modified random walk model for ex ante prediction and so the role of additional lagged variables is an important empirical issue compare for example the life cycle model of consumption as in hall 1978 and see also davidson and hendry 1981 although there has been a good deal of investigation of exchange market rationality e g frenkel 1981 levich 1978 hacche and townend 1981 baillie lippens and macmahon 1983 the evidence remains inconclusive another important issue which the paper seeks to understand separate from although related to the rationality question is the volatility of the exchange rate relative to the variables which might be expected to explain it explanation in terms of a linear short run equilibrium model e g the overshooting hypothesis does not account convincingly for the very large shifts periodically observed in response to apparently minor stimuli a theoretical justification for a nonlinear econometric framework is developed and this model is found to dominate the linear alternative on goodness of fit criteria