the economics of a blend mandate for biofuels a biofuel blend mandate may increase or decrease consumer fuel prices with endogenous oil prices depending on relative supply elasticities biofuel tax credits always reduce fuel prices tax credits result in lower fuel prices than under a mandate for the same level of biofuel production if tax credits are implemented alongside mandates then tax credits subsidize fuel consumption instead of biofuels this contradicts energy policy goals by increasing oil dependency co 2 emissions and traffic congestion while providing little benefit to either corn or ethanol producers these social costs will be substantial with tax credits costing taxpayers 28 7 billion annually by 2022 copyright 2008 oxford university press

compliance path and impact of ethanol mandates on retail fuel market in the short run past studies have examined the impact of ethanol mandates with a long run perspective and were thus able to assume away short run rigidities and some of the specifics of the biofuel mandates these studies have been of limited use in informing current policy debates because the short to medium run reality is one of strong regulatory and infrastructure rigidities that restrict how ethanol can be consumed in the united states our objectives in this paper are to provide a more coherent framework than currently exists to model and understand how compliance with ethanol mandates in the short run cannot be met with conventional gasoline blends how compliance impacts fuel prices and consumer and producer welfare and also to measure the size of the transfer that occurs between refineries and ethanol producers through the market s renewable identification numbers rins in a model calibrated to 2015 data we find that the effects of increasing ethanol mandates that are physically feasible are close to zero on the retail price of gasoline this result is robust to different gasoline prices supply elasticities and export demand elasticities increased mandates can have a large negative effect on the price of high level ethanol gasoline blends such as e85 if the mandates are increased to approach consumption capacity

considering macroeconomic indicators in the food before fuel nexus abstract a structural vector autoregression svar model along with a direct acyclic graph is employed to decompose how supply demand structural shocks affect food and fuel markets the results support the hypothesis that fundamental market forces of demand and supply are the main drivers of food price volatility increased biofuel production may cause short run food price increases but not long run price shifts decentralized freely operating markets will mitigate the persistence of any price shocks and restore prices to their long run trends the main policy implications are that oil gasoline and ethanol market shocks do not spillover into grain prices which indicates no long run food before fuel issue in the short run grain prices can spike due to market shocks so programs designed to blunt these price spikes may be warranted

blend wall economics relaxing us ethanol regulations can lead to increased use of fossil fuels abstract the us environmental protection agency is currently considering a waiver allowing an increase in the fuel ethanol blend limit the blend wall from 10 e10 up to 15 e15 justifications for this waiver are reduced vehicle fuel prices and less consumption of petroleum gasoline leading to energy security a theoretical examination of this waiver reveals an anomaly where a relaxation of this blend wall elicits a demand response under a wide range of elasticities this demand response can actually increase the consumption of petroleum gasoline and thus lead to greater energy insecurity the economics supporting this result and associated policy implications are developed and discussed

eu climate policy up to 2020 an economic impact assessment in its fight against climate change the eu is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20 below 1990 levels by 2020 to meet this commitment the eu builds on segmented market regulation with an eu wide cap and trade system for emissions from energy intensive installations ets sectors and additional measures by each eu member state covering emission sources outside the cap and trade system the non ets sector furthermore the eu has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target in this paper we evaluate the economic impacts of eu climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of eu compliance cost

production functions for climate policy modeling an empirical analysis abstract quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution the empirical foundation for both is generally lacking this paper estimates the parameters of 2 level ces production functions with capital labour and energy as inputs and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures using industry level data from 12 oecd countries we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first fits the data best but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest these two nesting structures are used by most climate models however while several climate policy models use a cobb douglas function for part of the production function we reject elasticities equal to one in favour of considerably smaller values finally we find evidence for factor specific technological change with lower elasticities and with factor specific technological change some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy

the economic effects of the eu biofuel target in this paper we use the cge model dart to assess the economic impacts and optimality of different aspects of the eu climate package a special focus is placed on the 10 biofuel target in the eu in particular we analyze the development in the biofuel sectors the effects on agricultural production and prices and finally overall welfare implications one of the main findings is that the eu emission targets alone lead to only minor increases in biofuel production additional subsidies are necessary to reach the 10 biofuel target this in turn increases european agricultural prices by up to 7 compared to a cost effective scenario in which the eu 20 emission reduction target is reached additional welfare losses occur due to separated carbon markets and the renewable quotas the biofuel target has relatively small negative or even positive welfare effects in some scenarios

eu type carbon regulation and the waterbed effect of green energy promotion abstract this paper studies waterbed effects in a stylized model of carbon regulation in which all countries participate in an emissions trading scheme ets implement national emissions caps on non ets emissions and support green electricity since a change in some country s ets emissions is exactly offset by opposite changes in the other countries ets emissions waterbed effect allocative disturbances in one country affect all other ets countries we analyze the allocative displacement effects on inputs outputs prices and trade that a country say country a triggers at home and in the other ets countries when it unilaterally increases its support of green electricity via raising its feed in tariff ets emissions turn out to decline in country a and to rise in the other countries another remarkable waterbed effect is that country a suffers a welfare loss whereas the other countries are better off country a s welfare loss is larger than it would be if there would be national etss instead of the joint ets if green electricity support takes the form of subsidies on the electricity price instead of feed in tariffs we get another waterbed effect green electricity production increases in country a but declines in the other countries various decarbonization indicators improve in country a but tend to point into the opposite direction in the other countries

fossil fuel producing economies have greater potential for industrial interfuel substitution abstract this study analyzes industrial interfuel substitution in an international context using a large unbalanced panel dataset of 63 countries we find that compared to other countries fossil fuel producing economies have higher short term interfuel substitution elasticities this difference increases further in the long run as fossil fuel producing countries have a considerably longer adjustment of their fuel using capital stock these results imply lower economic cost for policies aimed at climate abatement and more efficient utilization of energy resources in energy intensive economies

relationship between ethanol and gasoline aids approach abstract ethanol production in the united states has increased significantly due to government support which has begun to dwindle ethanol now seems to compete with gasoline for vehicle fuel but because ethanol is mostly sold as a blend gasoline and ethanol could be complementary fuel sources the study investigates the true relationship between these fuels since it has policy implications results of la aids estimation show the two fuels were substitutes before the rapid expansion of ethanol production but have become complements overtime due to increasing share of ethanol in fuel consumption

does britain or the united states have the right gasoline tax this paper develops an analytical framework to assess the second best optimal level of gasoline taxation taking into account unpriced pollution congestion and accident externalities as well as interactions with the broader fiscal system we provide calculations of the optimal taxes for the us and the uk under a variety of parameter scenarios under our central parameter values the second best optimal gasoline tax is 1 01 gal for the us and 1 34 gal for the uk current tax rates are much lower than this in the us and higher in the uk the calculations are moderately sensitive to alternative parameter assumptions the congestion externality is the largest component in both nations revenue raising needs also play a significant role as do accident externalities and local air pollution potential welfare gains from reducing the current uk tax rate are estimated at nearly one fourth the production cost of all gasoline used in the uk even larger gains could be achieved by switching to a tax on vehicle miles with equal revenue yield for the us the welfare gains from optimizing the gasoline tax are smaller but those from switching to an optimal tax on vehicle miles are very large

psychology and savings policies many observers of the current economic scene are concerned about the low rate of personal saving in the united states one well known researcher laurence kotlikoff 1992 calls the situation a crisis he proposes that each american worker receive an annual statement from the social security administration with projected benefits upon retirement arguing that if each of us got this statement our attention would be caught and perhaps our psychology of saving which is in such urgent need of redress would really change p 107 i agree with the thrust of kotlikoff s recommendations and join him in applauding steps that will alter the general public s psychology of saving however as economists we need to recognize that the economic theory of saving is similarly in urgent need of redress if we are to understand why people are saving so little and are to make helpful recommendations as to how to get people to save more we have to incorporate more of the psychology of saving into our economic theories kotlikoff s policy proposal while a sensible one highlights the growing gap between theory and policy prescription in this domain if households are acting in accordance with the life cycle theory of saving then undersaving is impossible so why do they need to have their psychology redressed and how does this psychology fit into the model this example reflects an increasing frustration in the economics community about personal saving many observers have come to the conclusion that the low saving rate represents an important problem on two fronts macroeconomists worry that the low saving rate will produce too little investment and microeconomists worry that individuals particularly the baby boomers are not putting enough away to finance a satisfactory lifestyle in retirement these are serious concerns however the frustration comes from the realization that even if there was agreement that the saving rate needs to go up economic theory offers little help in constructing a solution in the standard life cycle framework the only policy variable is the after tax rate of return to saving yet it is well known that the theory does not specify the sign of the relationship between the saving rate and the interest rate raising the interest rate increases the returns to saving but decreases the amount of saving necessary to yield any given future consumption level furthermore empirical estimates offer little help most studies are unable to reject the hypothesis that the elasticity of personal saving with respect to the interest rate is zero clearly this is frustrating the theory only gives us one lever to use and we don t know whether to push or pull with this background i wish to supply what should be considered good news the theory is misspecified life cycle models of saving fail to describe actual household saving in three important ways this failure of the theory is good news because by incorporating some basic psychology we can enrich the theory and generate specific policy recommendations in this paper i will begin by characterizing the problems with the theory and then go on to discussing the implications of modifying the theory

supply and demand elasticities in the u s ethanol fuel market abstract the market for ethanol has grown from approximately 1 2 billion gallons in 1997 to almost 5 billion gallons in 2006 with the huge increase in ethanol demand in recent years the growth in derived demand for corn has driven up many food prices this paper uses monthly data from 1997 2006 to estimate the market supply and demand for ethanol at the national level the simultaneous determination of the supply and demand curves using two stage least squares allows for the calculation of supply and demand side elasticities which are important results in light of the tremendous growth in this market and recent legislation concerning ethanol

an ethanol blend wall shift is prone to increase petroleum gasoline demand abstract in 2010 the u s environmental protection agency announced a waiver allowing an increase in the fuel ethanol blend limit the blend wall from 10 e10 to 15 e15 justifications for the waiver are reduced vehicle fuel prices and less consumption of petroleum gasoline leading to greater energy security empirical investigations of this waiver using monte carlo simulations reveal an anomaly where a relaxation of this blend wall elicits a demand response under a wide range of elasticities this demand response can actually increase the consumption of petroleum gasoline and thus lead to greater energy insecurity the economics supporting this result and associated policy implications are developed and discussed

short term planning and the life cycle consumption puzzle abstract we develop a new life cycle consumption model where the individual has a short planning horizon standard life cycle consumers with perfect foresight and hand to mouth consumers are both special limiting cases of our model where the length of the planning horizon is set to the entire lifetime and zero respectively we derive an analytical solution to the time inconsistent short term planning problem which reveals the inner workings of the model and facilitates its use in other settings we also show that the short term planning mechanism is powerful enough to generate a consumption hump with the right size and location

leakage welfare and cost effectiveness of carbon policy policymakers fear that a unilateral carbon policy will reduce competitiveness increase imports and lead to higher carbon emissions elsewhere leakage in fullerton karney and baylis 2012 we show that it may actually reduce emissions in other sectors negative leakage but reducing emissions in both sectors may merely reflect welfare costs of carbon policy that reduce real income and thus reduce consumption of both outputs these possibilities capture the concern that unilateral carbon policy might have a high cost per global unit of carbon abated that is low cost effectiveness based on harberger 1962 the two input two output analytical general equilibrium model of fullerton karney and baylis 2012 could represent two countries or two sectors of a closed economy each sector has some initial carbon tax or price and the paper solves for the effect of a small increase in one sector s carbon tax on the quantity of emissions in each sector but it does not solve for welfare effects here we use the same model but derive expressions for the costeffectiveness of a unilateral carbon tax the welfare cost per ton of emission reduction we show that higher leakage does not always mean lower welfare if one sector is already taxed at a higher rate then an increase in the other sector s tax might reduce deadweight loss from preexisting misallocations thus abatement can have negative cost the welfare cost most directly depends on the relative levels of tax in the two sectors we show that negative leakage always corresponds to a negative income effect but negative income

biofuel policies and the environment do climate benefits warrant increased production from biofuel feedstocks abstract we examine whether climate benefits warrant policies promoting biofuel production from agricultural crops when other environmental impacts are accounted for we develop a general economic ecological modelling framework for integrated analysis of biofuel policies an economic model of farmers decision making is combined with a biophysical model predicting the effects of farming practices on crop yields and relevant environmental impacts they include ghg emissions over the life cycle nitrogen and phosphorus runoff and the quality of wildlife habitats we apply our model to crop production in finland we find that under current biofuel production technology the case for promotion of biofuels is not as evident as has been generally thought only reed canary grass for biodiesel is unambiguously desirable whereas biodiesel from rape seed and ethanol production from wheat and barley cause in most cases negative net impacts on the environment suggested policies in the us and the eu tend to improve slightly the environmental performance of biofuel production

food versus fuel what do prices tell us abstract sorting out the impacts of biofuels on global agricultural commodity prices is impossible without turning to data and distinguishing between the short run versus the long run impacts using time series prices on fuels and agricultural commodities the aim is to investigate the long run cointegration of these prices simultaneously with their multivariate short run interactions results indicate no direct long run price relations between fuel and agricultural commodity prices and limited if any direct short run relationships in terms of short run price movements sugar prices are influencing all the other agricultural commodity prices except rice with sugar the number one world input for ethanol results indicate increased ethanol production is potentially influencing short run agricultural commodity prices overall results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibria after a demand or supply event shock

how does future income affect current consumption this paper tests a straightforward implication of the basic life cycle model of consumption that current consumption depends on expected lifetime income the paper projects future income for a panel of households and finds that consumption is closely related to projected current income but unrelated to predictable changes in income however future income uncertainty has an important effect consumers facing greater income uncertainty consume less the results are consistent with buffer stock models of consumption like those of deaton 1991 or carroll 1992a 1992b where precautionary motives greatly reduce the willingness of prudent consumers to consume out of uncertain future income

when does a carbon tax on fossil fuels stimulate biofuels a carbon tax is an efficient economic instrument to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel burning if designed properly it could also help significantly to promote renewable energy using a multi sector multi country computable general equilibrium model this study investigates under what circumstances a carbon tax would help stimulate penetration of biofuels into the energy supply mix for road transportation in various countries and regions around the world this study shows that a carbon tax cum biofuel subsidy policy where a carbon tax is introduced to fossil fuels and part of the tax revenue is used to finance the biofuel subsidy would significantly help stimulate market penetration of biofuels on the other hand a carbon tax alone policy where the entire tax revenue is recycled to households through a lump sum transfer does not help stimulate biofuels significantly even at higher tax rates although the carbon tax cum subsidy policy would cause higher loss in economic output at the global level as compared to the carbon tax alone policy the incremental loss is relatively small the key policy insight drawn from the study is that if a carbon tax were to be implemented in an economy for the purpose of climate change mitigation recycling part of its revenue to finance biofuel subsidies would significantly help stimulate biofuels

do renewable energy policies reduce carbon emissions on caps and inter industry leakage abstract in a parsimonious two sector general equilibrium model we challenge the widely held tenet that within a cap and trade system renewable energy policies have no effect on carbon emissions if the cap does not capture all sectors we demonstrate that variations of a renewable energy subsidy change aggregate carbon emissions through an inter industry leakage effect we decompose this effect into intuitively intelligible components that depend in natural ways on measurable elasticity parameters raising the subsidy always reduces emissions if funded by a lump sum tax reinforcing recent findings that tightening environmental regulation can cause negative leakage however if the subsidy is funded by a levy on electricity it can increase emissions these results provide a valuable basis for an informed design of renewable energy policies and an accurate assessment of their effectiveness we highlight how a state of the art statistic used by governments to gauge such effectiveness virtual emission reductions is biased because inter industrial leakage effects are not captured

the life cycle model of consumption and saving a central implication of life cycle models is that agents smooth consumption we review the empirical evidence on smoothing at frequencies from within the year up to across a lifetime we find that life cycle models particular those which incorporate realistic features of markets and goods have more empirical successes than failures we also show that some apparent deviations from theoretical predictions imply very small welfare losses for agents finally we emphasize that the coherence of life cycle models imposes an important discipline when incorporating new features into models

investments into forest biorefineries under different price and policy structures abstract increasing scarcity of oil reserves and the high co2 emissions from using oil have contributed to the development of renewable biofuels pulp and paper mill integrated forest biorefineries offer one important means to increase biofuel production this study analyzes the effects of policies to support biofuel production in the pulp and paper sector we study the relative effectiveness of three biofuel supporting policy instruments namely production subsidy input subsidy and investment subsidy we present a partial equilibrium pulp and paper market model with a biorefinery investment option a numerical model is used to evaluate the impacts of policy instruments on wood prices as well as input choices and investment strategies of pulp and paper industries the data represent the finnish pulp and paper sector we evaluate the values and direct costs of the policy instruments in a situation of exogenous biofuel production targets the direct costs of input and investment subsidies are higher than those of a production subsidy with all the policy instruments finnish pulp and paper mills would invest in wood gasifying technology instead of black liquor based one the number of biorefinery units is dependent on the subsidy type investment and input subsidies are likely to result in more numerous but smaller biofuel production units than a production subsidy with all the policy instruments the demand for wood increases in finland leading to higher wood prices this in turn could reflect negatively on the profitability of the pulp and paper industries to a significant degree the model and the results can be generalized to other countries and markets where integrated pulp and paper mills are operating

second best renewable subsidies to de carbonize the economy commitment and the green paradox climate change must deal with two market failures global warming and learning by doing in renewable energy production the first best policy consists of an aggressive renewables subsidy in the near term and a gradually rising and falling carbon tax given that global carbon taxes remain elusive policy makers might have to rely on a second best subsidy only with credible commitment the second best subsidy is higher than the social benefit of learning to cut the transition time and peak warming close to first best levels at the cost of higher fossil fuel use in the short run weak green paradox without commitment the second best subsidy is set to the social benefit of learning it generates smaller weak green paradox effects but the transition to the carbon free takes longer and cumulative carbon emissions are higher under first best and second best with pre commitment peak warming is 2 1 2 3 circ c under second best without commitment 3 5 circ c and without any policy 5 1 circ c above pre industrial levels not being able to commit yields a welfare loss of 95 of initial gdp compared to first best being able to commit brings this figure down to 7

the eu 20 20 2020 targets an overview of the emf22 assessment three computable general equilibrium models are used to estimate the economic implications of a stylized version of eu climate policy if implemented at the lowest possible cost the 20 emissions reduction would lead to a welfare loss of 0 5 2 0 by 2020 second best policies increase costs a policy with two carbon prices one for the ets one for the non ets could increase costs by up to 50 a policy with 28 carbon prices one for the ets one each for each member state could increase costs by another 40 the renewables standard could raise the costs of emissions reduction by 90 overall the inefficiencies in policy lead to a cost that is 100 125 too high the models differ greatly in the detail of their results the ets non ets split may have a negligible impact on welfare while the renewables standard may even improve welfare the models agree however that the distortions introduced by total eu package imply a substantial welfare loss over and above the costs needed to meet the climate target the marginal total and excess costs reported here are notably higher than those in the impact assessment of the european commission

assessing the impact of us ethanol on fossil fuel markets a structural var approach abstract despite the growing importance of biofuels the effect of biofuels on fossil fuel markets is not fully understood we develop a joint structural vector auto regression var model of the global crude oil us gasoline and us ethanol markets to examine whether the us ethanol market has had any impact on global oil markets the structural var approach provides a unique method for decomposing price and quantity data into demand and supply shocks allowing us to estimate the distinct dynamic effects of ethanol demand and supply shocks on the real prices of crude oil and us gasoline ethanol demand in the us is driven mainly by government support in the form of tax credits and blending mandates shocks to ethanol demand therefore reflect changes in policy more than any other factor in contrast ethanol supply shocks are driven by changes in feedstock prices a principle finding is that a policy driven ethanol demand expansion causes a statistically significant decline in real crude oil prices while an ethanol supply expansion does not have a statistically significant impact on real oil prices this suggests that even though us ethanol market is small the influence of us biofuels policy on the crude oil market is pervasive we also show that ethanol demand shocks are more important than ethanol supply shocks in explaining the fluctuation of real prices of crude oil and us gasoline

market power and second degree price discrimination in retail gasoline markets abstract empirical evidence of quality based second degree price discrimination is scarce the co existence of regular grade 10 ethanol blended gasoline e10 and regular grade non blended gasoline e0 in a major metropolitan city allows for second degree price discrimination to be examined while eliminating the issue of endogenous product differentiation because the two blends of gasoline are near perfect substitutes using a unique data set including daily price information for 402 retailers that sell only e0 gasoline only ethanol blended e10 gasoline or both blends simultaneously i find evidence that retailers use second degree price discrimination to segment the population between perceived lower and higher quality gasoline despite the fact that both blends can safely be used in nearly all vehicles additionally i uncover two elasticities of demand for gasoline and discuss the welfare effects of price changes and market segmentation

integrating bioenergy into computable general equilibrium models a survey in the past years biofuels have received increased attention since they were believed to contribute to rural development energy security and to fight global warming it became clear though that bioenergy cannot be evaluated independently of the rest of the economy and that national and international feedback effects are important computable general equilibrium cge models have been widely employed in order to study the effects of international climate policies the main characteristic of these models is their encompassing scope global models cover the whole world economy disaggregated into regions and countries as well as diverse sectors of economic activity such a modelling framework unveils direct and indirect feedback effects of certain policies or shocks across sectors and countries cge models are thus well suited for the study of bioenergy biofuel policies one can currently find various approaches in the literature of incorporating bioenergy into a cge framework this paper gives an overview of existing approaches critically assesses their respective power and discusses the advantages of cge models compared to partial equilibrium models grouping different approaches into categories and highlighting their advantages and disadvantages is important for giving a structure to this rather recent and rapidly growing research area and to provide a guidepost for future work

toward an optimal u s ethanol fuel subsidy abstract enhanced environmental quality fuel security and economic development along with reduced prices of ethanol gasoline blends are often used as justifications for the u s federal excise tax exemption on ethanol fuels however the possible effect of increased overall consumption of fuel in response to lower total price mitigating the environmental and fuel security benefits are generally not considered taking this price response into account the optimal u s ethanol subsidy is derived estimated values of the optimal subsidy reveal that the subsidy s environmental and security benefits are questionable however positive environmental and security benefits from the ethanol tax exemption subsidy may be obtained if the subsidy is combined with an increase in the excise tax on gasoline

challenges from state federal interactions in us climate change policy with a focus on two sorts of regulation renewable electricity and clean energy standards and automobile fuel economy standards we analyze problematic interactions that arise when state policies are nested within the domain of federal policy here state efforts may fail to reduce greenhouse gas emissions nationally and may compromise cost effectiveness difficulties from overlapping regulations are avoidable through price as opposed to quantity based federal policy we identify some potentially positive interactions between state and federal policies and identify rationales for state action when federal and state policies do not overlap

efficient co2 emissions control with emissions taxes and international emissions trading abstract we consider a stylized model of the hybrid co 2 emissions control in the eu a group of countries operates a joint emissions trading system ets covering only part of each country s economy the countries levy an emissions tax in the rest of their economy and possibly an additional tax in their ets sectors welfare maximizing governments are shown to lack incentives for group efficient policies preexisting taxes overlapping with the ets lead policy makers to allocate more permits to their ets sectors than cost effectiveness would suggest the cases of small and large countries exhibit significantly different efficiency implications