short run strategies for attracting foreign direct investment this paper empirically investigates the effectiveness and feasibility of two fdi policies fiscal incentives and deregulation aimed at improving the attractiveness of a country in the short run using disaggregated data on sales by us mnes foreign affiliates in 43 developed and developing countries over the 1982 94 period results show that the provision of fiscal incentives or the deregulation of the labour market would exert a positive impact on total fdi given the drawbacks frequently associated with the use of incentive packages economy wide policies which ease firing procedures and reduce severance payments would certainly be the best policy option this paper also highlights the different aggregation and omitted variable biases that have affected results of previous studies and provides some support to recent theoretical models of fdi by showing that third country effects and spatial interdependence influence respectively the location of export platform fdi and vertical fdi

an equilibrium model of asset trading with sequential information arrival in an effort to better understand the dynamic market price adjustment process this paper develops a model which describes the impact of new information on a financial market the primary emphasis is on the price change volume relationship in the presence of a margin requirement we find that the margin requirement significantly affects the relation of price change to volume furthermore this relationship is shown to be affected by the number of investors in the market the degree of information dissemination differences in interpretation of information and the implicit cost of the margin requirement

earnings effects of labor organizations in 1890 analyzing data from extensive surveys of u s nonfarm families in 1889 90 predominantly families from eastern states the authors of this paper show that workers affiliated with labor organizations had earnings that were 22 percent higher than the earnings of other workers an effect comparable in magnitude to estimates for modern unions wage differentials varied considerably across the eight industries studied and across skill levels within each industry

causality in variance and the type of traders in crude oil futures abstract this article examines the causal relationship and in particular informational dependence between crude oil futures return and the trading volume using daily data over a ten year period using a recent econometric methodology the two step procedure developed by cheung and ng 1996 cheung y w ng l k 1996 a causality in variance test and its applications to financial market prices journal of econometrics 72 33 48 is robust to distributional assumption and does not depend on simultaneous modeling of the two variables we find only causality at higher order lags running from return to volume in the mean as well as in conditional variance our result is not in complete agreement with several earlier studies in this area however the result does indicate mild support for noise traders hypothesis in the crude oil futures market

a theory of trading volume a theory of trading volume is developed based on assumptions that market agents frequently revise their demand prices and randomly encounter potential trading partners the model describes two distinct ways informational events affect trading volume one is consistent with conjectures made by empirical researchers that investor disagreement leads to increased trading but the observation of abnormal trading volume does not necessarily imply disagreement and volume can increase even if investors interpret the information identically if they also have had divergent prior expectations simulation tests support the model and are used to contrast the random pairing environment with costless market clearing volume is lower in the costly market and volume increases caused by an informational event persist after the event period this is consistent with existing empirical evidence and suggests that markets do not immediately clear all orders or that investors have demands to recontract

security analysis and trading patterns when some investors receive information before others in existing models of information acquisition all informed investors receive their information at the same time this article analyzes trading behavior and equilibrium information acquisition when some investors receive common private information before others the model implies that under some conditions investors will focus only on a subset of securities herding while neglecting other securities with identical exogenous characteristics in addition the model is consistent with empirical correlations that are suggestive of oft cited trading strategies such as profit taking short term position reversal and following the leader mimicking earlier trades in existing models of information acquisition all informed investors receive their information at the same time while these models provide many important insights in reality some investors either fortuitously or owing to superior skill acquire pertinent information before others by being first an investor can exploit this information to great advantage information that is uncovered only slightly later is less valuable even if it has not yet been publicly revealed we show in this article that the sequential nature of information arrival has a significant effect on both the trading decisions and the types of information collected by investors the model we develop describes the investment choices of a set of competitive risk averse investors who investigate the long term prospects of firms lucky or high ability investors uncover the

the interrelation of stock and options market trading volume data this research empirically investigates the relation between common stock and call option trading volumes the paper hyothesizes and tests a sequential flow of information between the stock and option markets if information trading for cboe listed firms is predominantly accomplished through option trading then existing research methodologies may be biased against finding any significant economic consequences in those instances where option listing is an important variable results indicate that trading in call options leads trading in the underlying shares with a one day lag black 2 suggests that information traders may prefer trading in options rather than shares due to economic incentives provided by reduced transaction costs capital requirements and trading restrictions and due to the greater action afforded by option trading manaster and rendleman 12 empirically support black s 2 option information trading preference finding incremental information content in option prices up to twenty four hours prior to its reflection in stock prices jennings and starks 10 report that the stock price adjustment process upon arrival of new information differs for those firms listed on the chicago board option exchange cboe and they demonstrate that stock price adjustment to new information occurs more rapidly for firms with listed call options the results in both papers appear to warrant consideration of an optiontrading variable in the design of empirical tests both manaster and rendleman 12 and jennings and starks 10 investigate the price relation between shares and call options this paper investigates trading volume copeland 4 posits the use of trading volume as a proxy for the rate of information arrival he concludes that the relation between absolute value of price changes and volume is positive and linear if one accepts a sequentialinformation arrival hypothesis as valid the present research hypothesizes and tests a sequential flow of information between the stock and option markets analyses presented are based on econometric tests for causality1 derived from the works of granger 6 and sims 22 if information trading takes place

supply chain disruption management and evolutionarily stable strategies of retailers in the quantity setting duopoly situation with homogeneous goods this paper develops an indirect evolutionary game model with two vertically integrated channels to study evolutionarily stable strategies ess of retailers in the quantity setting duopoly situation with homogeneous goods and analyzes the effects of the demand and raw material supply disruptions on the retailers strategies every channel consists of one manufacturer and many a sufficiently large number of retailers that sell products in different markets by adopting two pure marketing strategies profit maximization and revenue maximization we find that revenue maximization strategy may prevail and profit maximization strategy may become extinct two strategies may coexist i e all retailers in one channel will choose profit maximization strategy and all retailers in the other will choose revenue maximization strategy the ess of retailers depends on the relative size of the market scale and unit cost the supply chain disruptions affect the ess of retailers we also introduce a recovery model of the supply chain under disruptions and illustrate the effect of disruptions on the ess and on the average profits of channels in a market using a numerical simulation

price volatility trading volume and market depth evidence from futures markets the relations between volume volatility and market depth in eight physical and financial futures markets are examined evidence suggests that linking volatility to total volume does not extract all information when volume is partitioned into expected and unexpected components the paper finds that unexpected volume shocks have a larger effect on volatility further the relation is asymmetric the impact of positive unexpected volume shocks on volatility is larger than the impact of negative shocks finally consistent with theories of market depth the study shows large open interest mitigates volatility

taxes and bank capital structure this paper shows that a reduction in tax discrimination between debt and equity funding leads to better capitalized financial institutions the paper exploits exogenous variation in the tax treatment of debt and equity created by the introduction of a tax shield for equity the results demonstrate that a more equal treatment of debt and equity increases bank capital ratios driven by an increase in common equity the change also leads to a significant reduction in risk taking for ex ante low capitalized banks overall the findings suggest that tax shields could be a valuable and innovative policy tool for bank regulators

rent seeking over time the continuity of capture recently in this journal skaggs and wasserkrug 1983 presented a model of bureau monitoring and related it to federal reserve behavior central to their argument was that bureau constituencies may pressure congressmen in maintaining the monitoring status quo if competition is to be expected between self interested parties for the property rights associated with regulation and regulatory commissions then bureau monitoring or lack of it should have value the capture of a commission by others is made more costly when information on a bureau s activities is restricted in general the issues surrounding bureau monitoring bring out the dynamic nature of the capture theory of regulation once captured commissions must remain captured if benefits are to accrue to rent seekers over time empirical support for the capture perspective however only relates personal characteristics of the appointed regulators commissioners to characteristics preferred by the regulated to reveal the dynamic nature of capture one must also account for the continuity of commission membership a captured regulatory body can only remain captured if there is a continuity of desirable characteristics by compiling characteristics of appointed members previous studies have examined the output of the appointment process that resulted from competition for positions on regulatory boards however the lack of synchronization between appointments to federal regulatory commissions and presidential elections suggests that the distribution of influence among self interested groups in the selection process may vary over time thus continuous successful capture is more easily achieved if appointees remain on boards for full terms and if possible land reappointments but the process is complicated further because regulators

rewards to academia the remuneration of vice chancellors and principals this paper models the financial remuneration to vice chancellors and principals at uk higher education institutions after describing the alternative theoretical underpinnings for the determination of pay an earnings function is estimated utilizing institutional and personal characteristics the model suggests only a partial linkage of managerial and performance related indicators to remuneration levels this suggests substantial scope for reorientation of rewards towards such indicators rather than relying on an efficiency wage this would appear particularly appropriate given the present and continued disclosure of this information together with the increased focus on performance indicators relating to teaching and research within the uk higher education sector

an empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis abstract recently several behavioral finance models based on the overconfidence hypothesis have been proposed to explain anomalous findings including a short term continuation momentum and a long term reversal in stock returns we characterize the overconfidence hypothesis by the following four testable implications first if investors are overconfident they overreact to private information and underreact to public information second market gains make overconfident investors trade more aggressively in subsequent periods third excessive trading of overconfident investors in securities markets contributes to the observed excessive volatility fourth overconfident investors underestimate risk and trade more in riskier securities to document the presence of overconfidence in financial markets we empirically evaluate these four hypotheses using aggregate data overall we find empirical evidence in support of the four hypotheses

the economic effects of withdrawn antidumping investigations is there evidence of collusive settlements abstract this paper analyzes the effects of antidumping cases initiated from 1990 to 1997 that ended in withdrawn petitions without a suspension agreement or voluntary restraint agreement monthly import data are used to estimate the price and quantity effects of the withdrawn cases the estimated effects of the petition being withdrawn do not support the accepted wisdom that withdrawn petitions are a signal of collusion this is an important issue since out of court settlements of unfair trade cases which restrict quantities or increase prices are not only welfare reducing but are also actionable under the antitrust laws they are not exempt under the noerr pennington doctrine

expert opinion and cuisine reputation in the market for restaurant meals as food is an experience good the market for restaurant meals is a market where the cost of acquiring information regarding quality is relatively high in such markets consumers often turn to reputation measures to guide purchase decisions as australia does not have a longstanding cuisine style of its own and given australia has been open to substantial immigration inflows since federation it represents an especially appropriate market to study regarding the impact of individual restaurant reputation and collective cuisine reputation on meal prices the following study uses the hedonic price approach to investigate the implicit price of individual reputation indicators cuisine type reputation indicators and other objective indicators in the market for restaurant meals the empirical findings presented suggest that both individual restaurant reputation and cuisine type reputation are important other important factors are shown to include the quality of the restaurant wine list the availability of pr

towards a new trade policy between the usa and middle east countries estimating trade resistance and export potential at the time of the conclusion of free trade areas ftas between the usa and middle east and north african mena countries there is a lack of literature concerning the measurement of the current us export position with regards to these countries and the us export potential in this area from recent developments of gravity models this paper derives an estimable equation which includes various trade resistance variables notably border effects multilateral resistance as well as specific bilateral effects the model is tested in order to scrutinise the impact of these variables on us exports to mena countries as well as the us export potential in this area to that end a selection of panel data specifications is proposed mainly hausman and taylor models as well as arellano and bond dynamic models results unambiguously indicate that as compared to the other oecd countries the usa suffers from a substantial trade integration deficit with mena countries this is reflected by the strongly negative values of the us mena bilateral fixed effects as well as the high bilateral border effects in addition the estimated actual potential us export ratio to these countries is only 0 76 therefore implementing an fta between the usa and mena countries may allow the former to progressively improve its export position in this area this would also help mena countries diversify their supplying sources

do corporations sell houses for less a test of housing market efficiency this paper examines the popular notion that houses sold by corporations as a part of the employee relocation process sell at a discount we argue that such discounts conradict the notion of an efficient market in which indentical houses have the same expected sales price we test for corporate individual owned house price homogeneity using data from a metropolitan area in the us the evidence supports our single price hypothesis corporate houses do not sell for less than they would if sold by individuals

the sources of garch empirical evidence from an intraday returns model incorporating systematic and unique risks abstract garch models propose that volatility is time varying and persistent as a parsimonious statistical description of the process driving returns in many financial markets these models have been very successful however garch lacks a substantiated economic motivation this paper provides new and more definitive evidence on the mixture of distributions hypothesis a prominent potential economic explanation the mixture hypothesis posits that autocorrelation in the time varying rate of information arrival leads to the volatility dependencies captured by garch models previous investigations of this hypothesis have been inconclusive this paper makes use of a more theoretically appealing risk specification more appropriate measures of the rate of information arrival and higher frequency data from the currency futures market the results show that the mixture hypothesis explains substantial portions of contracts unique risks but systematic garch remains

causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return volume relations abstract this paper investigates the causal relations between stock return and volume based on quantile regressions we first define granger non causality in all quantiles and propose testing non causality by a sup wald test such a test is consistent against any deviation from non causality in distribution as opposed to the existing tests that check only non causality in certain moment this test is readily extended to test non causality in different quantile ranges in the empirical studies of three major stock market indices we find that the causal effects of volume on return are usually heterogeneous across quantiles and those of return on volume are more stable in particular the quantile causal effects of volume on return exhibit a spectrum of symmetric v shape relations so that the dispersion of return distribution increases with lagged volume this is an alternative evidence that volume has a positive effect on return volatility moreover the inclusion of the squares of lagged returns in the model may weaken the quantile causal effects of volume on return but does not affect the causality per se

the effect of changing expectations upon stock returns the relationship between heterogeneous expectations on the part of investors with respect to a security s future return and asset prices is an area of increasing interest in finance theoretical examples include miller 14 williams 23 and jarrow 8 empirical examples include bart and masse 1 and peterson and peterson 18 miller bart and masse and peterson and peterson address issues related to whether an increase in divergence of opinion will lead to an increase in an asset s price unfortunately little is known of how different types of changes in investors probability distributions of returns influence asset returns an even more basic problem is that it is not clear what is meant in terms of investor probability distributions when it is said that divergence of opinion increases or decreases the answer to this problem has important implications for understanding equilibrium price

willingness to pay of committed citizens a field experiment in this paper we propose a behavioral approach to determine the extent to which the consumer citizen distinction affects interpretations of monetary values in stated preferences methods we perform a field experiment dealing with air pollution where some randomly selected subjects are given the opportunity to behave politically by signing a petition for environmental protection prior to stating their private preferences in a standard contingent valuation exercise we show that signing has the potential to influence respondents willingness to pay values results indicate that even market like situations are not immune to citizen behavior

intradaily price volume adjustments of nyse stocks to unexpected earnings the speed and path of adjustment in stocks to the degree of earnings surprise in their quarterly announcements are studied using price volume transactions data a differential price adjustment process was observed with stocks having large positive earnings surprises experiencing a faster adjustment compared with those stocks with negative earnings surprises volume transaction frequency and size were found to be directly related to the absolute degree of surprise but very favorable earnings surprise stocks experienced initially a large number of smaller trades while stocks with large unfavorable earnings surprises had relatively fewer transactions but higher volume per trade the stock market s microstructure has received increasing attention from researchers especially from an empirical perspective as transaction data on prices and volume have become more readily available 1 an important subset of this research has been the study of stock price adjustments to significant news events specifically publicly announced information with economic content should be quickly reflected in prices in an unbiased manner this paper contains a study of the intradaily adjustment in stocks to the informational content of earnings reports using price changes trading volume and transaction frequency and size we examine the transaction to transaction and time series stock behavior associated with different degrees of earnings surprise embedded in earnings announcements the degree of surprise is measured by a comparison of actual with forecasted earnings for 325 new york stock exchange nyse firms these firms are subdivided into five earnings surprise categories in order to determine whether the speed and path of their price volume adjustment processes are different one question of interest is whether the adjustment process for favorable versus unfavorable earnings surprises is similar or different another is whether any adjustment is distinguished by a few large trades or a large number of smaller

does remuneration affect the discipline and the selection of politicians evidence from pay harmonization in the european parliament we study the harmonization of the base pay for the members of the european parliament meps prior to this reform implemented in 2009 base pay was aligned with that of national parliamentarians causing large differences in pay between the meps representing 27 member states based on detailed information on individual meps between 2004 and 2011 we find that the reform which introduced an exceptional base pay increase of 200 per national delegation on average has a positive incentive effect on in office effort proxied by the number of speeches written declarations and reports drafted however more generous remuneration is associated with higher rates of absenteeism with respect to political selection we find that higher pay also raises reelection rates the composition of the pool of meps in terms of ex ante quality approximated by formal education previous political experience in elected office and occupational background is however unaffected if we restrict our attention to newly elected meps a salary increase is related to fewer meps with previous political experience at the highest national level

the contagion effect of foreclosed properties although previous research shows that prices of homes in neighborhoods with foreclosures are lower than those in neighborhoods without foreclosures it remains unclear whether the lower prices are the result of a general decline in neighborhood values or whether foreclosures reduce the prices of nearby non distressed sales through a contagion effect we provide robust evidence of a contagion discount by simultaneously estimating the local price trend and the incremental price impact of nearby foreclosures at its peak the discount is roughly 1 per nearby foreclosed property the discount diminishes rapidly as the distance to the distressed property increases the contagion discount grows from the onset of distress through the foreclosure sale and then stabilizes this pattern is consistent with the contagion effect being the visual externality associated with deferred maintenance and neglect

limited knowledge of demand and oligopoly equilibria abstract in a standard model of oligopoly with differentiated products the existence of an equilibrium at which the first order conditions for profit maximisation are simultaneously satisfied for all firms is proved and this is done without imposing any restrictions on the demand functions this is an equilibrium in the following sense although some firms may not necessarily be maximising their profits nevertheless if each firm s knowledge of demand is limited to the linear approximation of its own demand curve then it will believe that it is indeed maximising its profits

short sale restrictions and market reaction to short interest announcements according to the diamond verrecchia hypothesis if increases in short interest are correlated with information that is not yet public they should precipitate a price adjustment stocks with unexpected increases in short interest are found to generate statistically significant but small negative abnormal returns for a short period around the announcement date when the sample is divided into stocks with and without tradable options nonoptioned stocks closely mimic these results but the optioned stocks do not in a cross sectional analysis of individual firms the short term negative abnormal returns are found to be 1 more negative the higher the degree of unexpected short interest and 2 less negative if the firm has tradable options

labour productivity in the british and south wales coal industry 1874 1914 naked to the waist hot and grimy with labour they squatted on their heels for a few minutes and talked seeing each other dimly by the light of the safety lamps while the black coal rose jutting around them and the props of wood stood like little pillars in the low black very dark temple the day passed pleasantly enough there was an ease a go asyou please about the day underground a delightful camaraderie of men shut off alone from the rest of the world in a dangerous place and a variety of labour holing loading timbering and a glamour of mystery and adventure in the atmosphere d h lawrence 1955 the above quote from d h lawrence while perhaps over emphasizing glamour and adventure illustrates one important aspect of colliery work the intensity of a collier s effort was primarily self imposed it was the work intensity combined with other factors that determined labour productivity in the coal mines a number of articles have addressed the problem of labour productivity in coalmining during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries two of the most important being a j taylor s 1961 examination of productivity and technological change in britain and r h walters 1975 analysis of the same topic for south wales 1 in addition there is a rich and growing literature on the broader problem of the existence of a climacteric a downward shift in the performance of the british economy in the late nineteenth century often attributed to the failure of british entrepreneurs as represented by their seeming unwillingness to adopt the best available techniques of production 2 the purpose of this paper is to specify and estimate an empirical model of labour productivity in coalmining as well as to provide some suggestive evidence regarding the performance of entrepreneurs in this major industry 3 we believe our results provide added insight into the determination of labour productivity during this period lending support to those who argue that the failure of british entrepreneurs has yet to be proved while providing mixed evidence regarding conclusions drawn by economic historians

adaptation to an irrigation water restriction imposed through local governance abstract we estimate how farmers adapted to a water restriction imposed through local governance the restriction imposed a uniform quota on water use with a 5 year allocation and allowed trading of the quota within the restricted area our analysis exploits unique micro level data on irrigated water use irrigated acreage and crops we use a difference in differences econometric strategy that also includes farmer time fixed effects to estimate the response to the restriction where we exploit water rights between 2 and 5 miles of the policy boundary as a control group results indicate that farmers reduced water use by 26 due to the policy with most of the response due to reductions in water use intensity on the same crops rather than through reductions in irrigated acreage or changes in crops the results imply that the short run welfare impact of the policy was smaller than a policy that reduces irrigated acreage

revisiting electricity liberalization and quality of service empirical evidence from new zealand abstractwhat effect does the firm structure have on the quality of service delivered by networks and infrastructure industries we answer this question by empirically assessing the impacts of complete vertical separation such as ownership unbundling on the quality of service delivered by a liberalized network industry electricity distribution utilities in new zealand are considered for this purpose and are analysed using panel data econometrics the results show robust evidence that ownership unbundling contributed to a fall in the duration and frequency of supply interruptions in electricity distribution however the results also show that unbundling has no effect on reducing distribution network losses these results overall highlight the nonsimple impacts of ownership unbundling on the quality of electricity distribution we suggest that the quality of service may largely improve when considered in the economic regulation of electricity networks than completely relying on specific reform measures

an information theoretic analysis of stock returns volatility and trading volumes information theory is used to examine the dynamic relationships between stock returns volatility and trading volumes for s p500 stocks this provides an alternative approach to traditional granger causality tests when dealing with nonlinear relationships the article highlights the dominant role played by trading volumes in all of these relationships even in the return volatility relation and finds evidence of a market level feedback effect from index returns to the return volatility relation at the stock level the article also produces a number of stylized facts from an information theoretic perspective

the earnings of canadian immigrant and native born males this paper examines the economic attainment of canadian immigrants although foreign born males initially earn less than the native born their earnings rise more rapidly with canadian labour market experience and after 14years their earnings equal and exceed those of the native population it is also shown that the use of mincer s identity leads to biased results when estimating the earnings of the immigrant population

the impact of short selling on the price volume relationship evidence from hong kong this paper considers the relationship between traded volume and volatility allowing for the impact of short sales the evidence supports a nonlinear bidirectional relationship between volume and volatility short selling is found to have a significant impact on this relationship and our results suggest i that the hong kong market displays greater volatility following a period of short selling and ii that asymmetric responses to positive and negative innovations to returns appear to be exacerbated by short selling

does vix or volume improve garch volatility forecasts abstractthis article considers whether the inclusion of two additional variables can improve volatility forecasts over a standard garch based model we consider three alternative ways of incorporating the volatility index vix and trading volume as exogenous variables within a selection of garch models we are particularly interested in whether these variables have additional incremental forecast power over and above the baseline garch specification our results suggest that both the vix and volume do provide some additional forecast power and this is generally improved when considering both of these series jointly in the model however while the results may be statistically significant the gain is marginal and the coefficient values small moreover in a horse race exercise vix does not outperform the garch approach in answering the question of whether vix produces better forecasts than the garch model then the answer is no but the informational content of vix cannot be ignored and should be incorp

short interest and the asymmetry of the price volume relationship in the canadian stock market abstract several studies have revealed an asymmetry in the price volume relationship in the equities markets this paper verifies this relationship using canadian data and presents an alternative test of the costly short sales hypothesis based on the volume of outstanding short interest in the stock market contrary to previous studies the empirical tests in this study do not rely on futures markets data but rather measure and compare the effects of relative short interest positions on the price volume relationship for positive and negative price changes the results suggest that the greater the ratio of short positions to the number of shares outstanding the greater the trading volume associated with price increases relative to that accompanying price decreases

bad news and dow jones make the spanish stocks go round this paper is a data based attempt to analyse what kind of information basically affects close to open returns open to close returns volatility and volume in actively traded individual securities on the spanish stock market specifically we are interested in detecting how these variables react to specific pieces of news considered as exogenous information however as volume itself could be interpreted as a proxy of the information flow we first apply the linear and nonlinear granger causality tests from volume to return and to volatility we do not find evidence supporting this latter hypothesis furthermore we only find significant evidence of linear causality from volume to volatility the other major finding is that both bad news and the dow jones play a significant informational role in explaining price changes and volatility as a consequence of these findings we also test the residual role of volume as a proxy for noise liquidity trading after filtering for news although we do not find evidence in favour of this argument

paying for mitigation a multiple country study a contingent valuation study conducted in china sweden and the united states was used to investigate citizens willingness to pay wtp for reducing co2 emissions we find that a majority of the respondents in all three countries believe that the mean global temperature has increased over the last 100 years and that humans are responsible for the increase the share of americans that believes these statements is smaller and a relatively larger share of americans also believes that nothing can be done to stop climate change sweden has the highest wtp while china has the lowest jel q51 q54

seasonality estimation in thin markets the greater availability of daily data in the u s has led to a number of studies of the seasonality of daily stock index returns while the studies recognized the potential impacts of nontrading and price adjustment delays in general no formal analyses of such impacts were presented in this paper analytic results are presented for the articulation between these phenomena the implications of the analysis are discussed and shown to be consistent with a sample of u k index data a modified form of the negative weekend effect is found to be present in the u k data analyzed tests for the presence of seasonality in equity returns have been carried out by a number of authors at both the monthly and daily return levels at the monthly level rozeff and kinney 18 discovered evidence of seasonality in the u s while officer 15 detected the presence of seasonality in australian data fama 7 carried out some early work on u s daily data and more recent contributions have been made by cross 5 french 9 and gibbons and hess 10 while these studies recognized the presence of thin trading and its potential impacts upon the experimental results no formal analyses were presented in this paper we derive analytic results for the articulation between seasonality and nontrading effects section i the implications of this analysis are tested using a sample described in section ii of u k daily index data2 in section iii section iv discusses the implications of the results for capital market efficiency finally

when quality signals talk evidence from the turin hotel industry abstract this study analyzes the relationship between quality signals and price setting through the application of hedonic price functions the model proposals also include variables relating to land use policies and tourism development strategies a simultaneous equation model endogenously estimates quality signals this method is appropriate for analyzing emerging urban destinations as characterized by the presence of an expanding hotel industry the results are based on a dataset of 145 hotels in turin italy the empirical findings reveal that reputation based quality signals help explain tariff levels price proposals also include a premium for quality assured hotels defining some limits of the current hotel classification system the empirical evidence has significant marketing implications for the hospitality industry s competitiveness since the results clarify the impact of quality signals on price level

estimating the demand for the characteristics of housing a hstract estimates of the demand for the characteristics contained in a differentiated product such as housing can be based on hedonic regressions however previous studies have not dealt with several potential problems in such estimation a more appropriate framework for the estimation is provided in this paper also data from a number of cities are used to eliminate the identification problem and the endogeneity of the marginal prices derived from non linear hedonic equations is considered in the estimation the results on own and cross price elasticities expenditure elasticities and the effects of socio economic vafiables accord well with expectations

intraday trading volume and return volatility of the djia stocks a note abstract we examine the contemporaneous correlation as well as the lead lag relation between trading volume and return volatility in all stocks comprising the dow jones industrial average djia we use 5 minute intraday data and measure return volatility by the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity method contrary to the mixture of distribution hypothesis the vast majority of the djia stock shows no contemporaneous correlation between volume and volatility however we find evidence of significant lead lag relations between the two variables in a large number of the djia stocks in accordance with the sequential information arrival hypothesis

strategic trading behavior and price distortion in a manipulated market anatomy of a squeeze abstract this paper investigates an attempted delivery squeeze in a bond futures contract traded in london using cash and futures trades of dealers and customers we analyze their strategic trading behavior price distortion and learning in a market manipulation setting we argue that marked differences in settlement failure penalties in the cash and futures markets create conditions that favor squeezes we recommend that regulators require special flagging of forward term repurchase agreements on the key deliverables that span futures contract maturity dates and that exchanges mark to market their contract specifications more frequently or consider a cash settled contract on a basket of bonds

monopolistic competition and bounded rationality abstract this paper shows how a market reaches a unique steady state in monopolistic competition without knowing anything about strategic interdependence and only perceiving a linear demand for its own product every firm follows a simple price strategy to maximize its current profit in each period the strategy is based on a firm s own cost function slope estimate and its sales and price in the previous period we show that a market with asymmetric and non linear demand converges to a unique steady state under rather general conditions

the behavior of bid ask spreads in the electronically traded corn futures market this is the first paper to analyze liquidity costs in agricultural futures markets based on the observed bid ask spread bas faced by market participants the results reveal a highly liquid corn market that mostly offers order execution at minimum cost the bas responds negatively to volume and positively to price volatility but also affects volume traded and price volatility while statistically significant these responses on a cents bushel or a percentage basis are generally small liquidity costs are also virtually impervious to short term changes in demand for spreading and trend following trader activity as well as differences from day of the week changes in market activity much larger cents bushel and percentage changes in bas occur during commodity index trader roll periods and on usda report release days the roll period findings indicate a sunshine trading effect while announcement effects identify the importance of unexpected information and adverse selection on order execution costs overall our research demonstrates that the transition to electronic trading in the corn futures market has led to low and stable liquidity costs despite the market turbulence in 2008 2009

testing for linear and nonlinear granger causality in the stock price volume relation linear and nonlinear granger causality tests are used to examine the dynamic relation between daily dow jones stock returns and percentage changes in new york stock exchange trading volume we find evidence of significant bidirectional nonlinear causality between returns and volume we also examine whether the nonlinear causality from volume to returns can be explained by volume serving as a proxy for information flow in the stochastic process generating stock return variance as suggested by clark s 1973 latent common factor model after controlling for volatility persistence in returns we continue to find evidence of nonlinear causality from volume to returns

the dependence between hourly prices and trading volume this study provides evidence on joint characteristics of hourly common stock trading vol ume and returns on the new york stock exchange average volume traded shows signifi cant differences across trading hours of the day and across days of the week average returns differ across hours ofthe day and to some extent across days ofthe week there is a strong contemporaneous relation between trading volume and returns and also a rela tion between trading volume and returns lagged up to four hours furthermore the trading volume returns relation is steeper for positive returns than for nonpositive returns

market conditions trader types and price volume relation in energy futures markets we investigate the asymmetric relations between trading volume and price changes and trading volume and price volatility of energy futures contracts across maturities and under different market conditions using a relatively long sample of daily observations we examine whether the impact of trading volume on returns and volatility of futures contracts can be time varying and dependent on the market condition we differentiate the market condition based on the slope of the forward curve into backwardation and contango the results indicate that trading volume and returns are positively related when the market is in backwardation and negatively related when the market is in contango in addition the positive relation between changes in trading volume and volatility of futures contracts seem to be stronger when the market is in backwardation than when it is in contango finally the results indicate that to a certain extent trade participation and trading activities of agents in energy futures markets can be explained by the slope of the forward curve which reflects the market condition and sentiment

the charity of the extremely wealthy our experience worldwide is that first generation wealth is actually more generous than dynastic wealth both here in india and u s and other countries the biggest givers are those who are receivers of first generation wealth bill gates quoted in thakur lee and frye 2011 i introduction in this article we study the charitable behavior of billionaires focusing on the impact of the source of their wealth on their charitable donations and pledges while billionaires play a leading role in both the economy and in philanthropy and they are watched closely by journalists and the public at large econometric studies that focus on the behavior of billionaires are rare 1 understanding the charitable behavior of the extremely wealthy is important because they are responsible for a disproportional share of overall giving directly through the amounts of money they give and also because their public status makes their behavior an example for others to follow while the determinants of individual giving have already been studied in experimental settings and using surveys reinstein and riener 2012 steinberg et al 2011 this article documents charitable behavior of a larger magnitude than that typically studied in experiments and of people who do not participate in experiments or fill out surveys 2 our analysis focuses on the question of whether self made billionaires are more charitable than billionaires who inherited their money as bill gates suggested in the quote above it is well documented that people s decisions on how to spend money often depend on how they received that money epley mak and chen idson 2006 for example show that the propensity to consume is bigger if income received is framed as a bonus rather than a rebate arkes et al 1994 show that windfall gains are more readily consumed than nonwindfall gains such evidence has been found both inside and outside the laboratory but in this article we investigate whether treatment of income varies depending on its source when the amounts at stake are much larger than previously studied in the literature in this article amounts range from millions to billions of dollars in comparison with the tens or hundreds of dollars in experimental literature or the tens of thousands of dollars studied in the research on decisions in every day life moreover studies that investigate how spending varies with the source of money typically conclude that earned income is spent more carefully than windfall gains however in the case of charitable giving self made money seems to be more rather than less likely to be spent on charity than inherited money steinberg et al 2011 indeed show using data from the charitable giving module of the panel study of income dynamics psid that the presence of inherited wealth increases giving but also that income held constant an increase in the proportion of income coming from an inheritance is associated with a decrease in charitable giving 3 to study the charitable behavior of the extremely wealthy we use data from the giving pledge a global public pledge to give away at least half of one s fortune during one s lifetime http givingpledge org which by now has been signed by more than 100 extremely wealthy people typically current billionaires in addition we use data on the presence of u s billionaires in the philanthropy top 50 and in the million dollar list a list of those who have given grants of 1 million or more since 2000 we find evidence that self made billionaires are three to four times more likely to sign the giving pledge and to enter the philanthropy top 50 list of biggest pledges compared with those who inherited their wealth at the same time we find that the gap in probabilities between self made and inherited wealth is much smaller at about 28 when looking at the presence in the million dollar list we also find that self made billionaires give more on average than inherited billionaires do when measuring total gifts using the million dollar list or the philanthropy top 50

scanner data and the treatment of quality change in nonrevisable price indexes the recently developed rolling year geks procedure makes maximum use of all matches in the data to construct nonrevisable price indexes that are approximately free from chain drift a potential weakness is that unmatched items are ignored in this article we use imputation tornqvist price indexes as inputs into the rolling year geks procedure these indexes account for quality changes by imputing the missing prices associated with new and disappearing items three imputation methods are discussed the first method makes explicit imputations using a hedonic regression model which is estimated for each time period the other two methods make implicit imputations they are based on time dummy hedonic and time product dummy regression models and are estimated on bilateral pooled data we present empirical evidence for new zealand from scanner data on eight consumer electronics products and find that accounting for quality change can make a substantial difference

the race is to the swift socioeconomic origins adult education and wage attainment the winners in today s winner take all labor markets are differentiated by advanced levels of educational attainment especially higher degrees this article applies a sociological model of cumulative dis advantage to the baby boom cohort to examine whether life course timing differences in educational attainment help explain wage differentials by midlife it finds that advantaged social origins lead to early postsecondary completion of degrees which in turn yield higher wages a pathway of cumulative disadvantage is also evident where those least advantaged exit schooling early in life do not return as adults and earn low wages in a middle path advantaged social origins promote adult school attainment primarily for those without degrees but generally without the wage boosts associated with attainment earlier in life

on information dissemination and equilibrium asset prices a note previous analyses of market structures characterized by gradual information dissemination presume the equilibrium price existing after all market participants are informed is inde pendent of the order of information dissemination in these papers final market elearing price given the investors posterior beliefs is known a priori and is assumed to equal the price that would exist if data were disseminated simultaneously we demonstrate that final equilibrium price is dependent in general on the order of information dissemination this implies that if the dissemination sequence is stochastic price is unknown prior to the complete dissemination of information even if the investors posterior beliefs given the information event are known we derive a necessary and sufficient condition for equilib rium price to be independent of the dissemination sequence in our economy our analysis highlights the importance of the wealth redistribution dynamics inherent in the informa tion dissemination process

room in the kitchen for the melting pot immigration and rental prices this paper studies the response of housing markets to immigration shocks following card 1990 i examine the changes in rental prices in miami and three comparison groups after the mariel boatlift this exogenous immigration shock added an extra 9 to miami s renter population in 1980 i find that rents increased from 8 to 11 more in miami than in the comparison groups between 1979 and 1981 by 1983 the rent differential was still 7 rental units of higher quality were not affected by the immigration shock units occupied by low income hispanic residents in 1979 experienced an extra 8 differential hike with respect to other low income units relative housing prices moved in the opposite direction from rents in the short run

effectiveness of rca institutions to limit local externalities using foreclosure data to test covenant effectiveness residential community associations rcas are said to be an efficient institutional agreement to limit local spillovers while several studies have identified a positive marginal effect of rca rules none have explicitly measured the effectiveness of these institutions to limit local externalities this study measures this effectiveness by estimating how the direct and spillover price impacts caused by foreclosure differ by rca status using a spatial hedonic model that controls for selection bias using propensity score methods and coarsened exact matching we find that foreclosed rca properties experience smaller direct foreclosure discounts and produce smaller spill over effects than their non rca counterparts

the relation between price changes and trading volume a survey this paper reviews previous and current research on the relation between price changes and trading volume in financial markets and makes four contributions first two empiri cal relations are established volume is positively related to the magnitude of the price change and in equity markets to the price change per se second previous theoretical research on the price volume relation is summarized and critiqued and major insights are emphasized third a simple model ofthe price volume relation is proposed that is consis tent with several seemingly unrelated or contradictory observations and fourth several directions for future research are identified

look who s talking the impacts of the intrahousehold allocation of mobile phones on agricultural prices abstract using data from the philippines we study the impact of mobile phones on the prices agricultural producers receive for their cash crop we first look at the impact on price of mobile phone ownership at the household level because this masks a considerable amount of heterogeneity we then look at the impact on price of the intrahousehold allocation of mobile phones we find that whether the household owns a mobile phone has no impact on price but whether a farmer or spouse owns a mobile phone is associated with a 5 to 8 per cent increase in price

an empirical analysis of the stock price volume relationship abstract this paper investigates the empirical relationship between absolute stock price changes and trading volume in the stock market using granger causality tests we find that there is a significant causal relationship between absolute price changes and volume at the firm level and that this relationship is stronger in periods surrounding earnings announcements we view this as suggesting that information arrival follows a sequential rather than a simultaneous process although the results do not support an extreme version of either information arrival model

does price dispersion increase with quality evidence from the online diamond market this article empirically investigates the relationship between price dispersion and price level searches seem more valuable for products of high quality but buyers may have little incentive to search since such products are less frequently purchased the extent of price dispersion is examined using a sample of around 160 000 diamonds offered for sale online estimates from a two stage econometric strategy show that price dispersion increases significantly with quality an explanation is that buyers of high quality gemstones pay little attention to the price of these diamonds and even more so if they perceive high prices as signals of quality and rarity of the diamonds they intend to purchase

environmental amenities as a source of market power site specific environmental amenities can provide a source of product differentiating market power using estimates from hedonic price equations and residual demand models our analysis recovers firm specific estimates of price markups as measures of market power and uses these markups to estimate the implied marginal value for access to coastal beaches the application involves rental price and occupancy data for several thousand beach properties along a portion of the north carolina coastline during the 1987 to 1992 rental seasons

unions industrial concentration and wages a re examination market structure or industrial concentration has long been recognized as an important influence on industrial output employment and profits it has also been recognized that some proportion of the profits from concentration may be diverted into wages through collective bargaining yet the precise nature of these relationships has received little attention although it has important implications for the evaluation of wage structure and the welfare loss arising from monopoly empirical studies of the impact of unions and industrial concentration on wages weiss 1966 jones and laudadio 1975 dalton and ford 1977 long and link 1983 follow a similar format after a brief verbal justification for the ability of unions to win higher wage increases when the employer is earning oligopoly profits these studies specify a wage equation of the general form

the returns to education in africa some new estimates abstractwe estimate the rate of return to education for 12 african countries using recent data and a range of methodologies which we apply consistently across all countries our findings confirm that the return to basic education is the lowest 7 10 the returns to upper secondary and tertiary education are similar to one another 25 30 accounting for the risk of joblessness increases these rates of return particularly for basic education and for women at tertiary level our results at the country level suggest that great care should be taken in choosing the appropriate methodology to estimate rates of return

the dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume domestic and cross country evidence abstract this paper examines the dynamic relations causal relations and the sign and magnitude of dynamic effects between stock market trading volume and returns and volatility for both domestic and cross country markets by using the daily data of the three largest stock markets new york tokyo and london major findings are as follows first trading volume does not granger cause stock market returns on each of three stock markets second there exists a positive feedback relationship between trading volume and return volatility in all three markets third regarding the cross country relationships us financial market variables in particular us trading volume contains an extensive predictive power for uk and japanese financial market variables fourth sub sample analyses show evidence of stronger spillover effects after the 1987 market crash and an increased importance of trading volume as an information variable after the introduction of options in the us and japan

payment source and the cost of hospital care evidence from a multiproduct cost function with multiple payers abstract this study investigates the capacity of hospitals to vary the intensity of their services based on patients expected sources of payment while the concept of price discrimination by hospitals based on payer generosity cost shifting has been discussed extensively the notion that hospitals can adjust payer specific marginal costs to reflect differences in reimbursement policies has not been studied in depth to examine this issue this analysis employs a multiproduct cost function with hospital outputs defined as admissions by payment source controlling for the distribution and severity of illness casemix for each payer marginal costs of casemix adjusted discharges are obtained and compared for medicare medicaid private payers and a residual category that includes uncompensated care we find that indeed payer specific marginal costs generally reflect payer generosity

property rights and productivity the case of joint land titling in vietnam this paper explores the effect of land titling on agricultural productivity in vietnam and the productivity effects of single versus joint titling for husband and wife using a plot fixed effects approach our results show that obtaining a land title is associated with higher yields for both individually and jointly held titles we conclude that there is no tradeoff between joint titling and productivity and so joint titles are potentially an effective way to improve women s bargaining power within the household with no associated efficiency losses

the effect of ama membership on physicians earnings this study explores earnings differences between physicians who are members of the american medical association and physicians who are not ama members nonmembers earn on average about 22 percent less per hour of medical practice than members an estimate of the earnings effect of ama membership incorporating the simultaneous determination of earnings and membership suggests however that membership per se increases physicians hourly practice earnings only by about 2 7 percent

rationalizability learning and equilibrium in games with strategic complementarities we study a rich class of noncooperative games that includes models of oligopoly competition macroeconomic coordination failures arms races bank runs technology adoption and diffusion r d competition pretrial bargaining coordination in teams and many others for all these games the sets of pure strategy nash equilibria correlated equilibria and rationalizable strategies have identical bounds also for a class of models of dynamic adaptive choice behavior that encompasses both best response dynamics and bayesian learning the players choices lie eventually within the same bounds these bounds are shown to vary monotonically with certain exogenous parameters we study the class of noncooperative supermodular games introduced by topkis 1979 and further analyzed by vives 1985 1989 who also pointed out the importance of these games in industrial economics supermodular games are games in which each player s strategy set is partially ordered the marginal returns to increasing one s strategy rise with increases in the competitors strategies so that the game exhibits strategic complementarity 2 and if a player s strategies are multidimensional marginal returns to any one com ponent of the player s strategy rise with increases in the other components this class turns out to encompass many of the most important economic applications of noncooperative game theory in macroeconomics diamond s 1982 search model and bryant s 1983 1984 rational expectations models can be represented as supermodular games in each of these models more activity by some members of the economy raises the returns to increased levels of activity by others in oligopoly theory some models of bertrand oligopoly with differentiated products qualify as supermodu lar games in these games when a firm s competitors raise their prices the marginal profitability of the firm s own price increase rises a similar structure is present in games of new technology adoption such as those of dybvig and spatt 1983 farrell and saloner 1986 and katz and shapiro 1986 when more users hook into a communication system or more manufacturers adopt an interface standard the marginal return to others of doing the same often rises similarly in some specifications of the bank runs model introduced by diamond and dybvig 1983 when more depositors withdraw their funds from a bank it is more worthwhile for other depositors to do the same in the warrant exercise

can microfinance reach the poorest evidence from a community managed microfinance intervention summary reaching the poorest is an important objective in many development interventions and microfinance is no exception we review performance indicators for effectiveness of targeting described in the literature and suggest a new metric in order to account for extent and severity of poverty as well as the income distribution among the poor when applying this to a panel dataset from a community managed microfinance intervention in northern malawi we find regressive targeting participants are less poor than the general population in the area in addition we provide suggestions as to when and why the poor exit the project

futures price variability a test of maturity and volume effects a number of previous studies have examined the contemporaneous relation between asset price variability and volume traded for example clark 1973 cornell 1981 and tauchen and pitts 1983 have investigated this relation for futures markets and epps and epps 1976 harris 1984a 1984b and smirlock and starks 1984 for the stock market underlying this empirical research is a theoretical framework that suggests that price variability or the absolute change in prices and volume traded should be positively correlated according to this theoretical framework the so called mixture of distributions hypothesis mdh 1 the correlation between price variability and volume should be positive because of joint dependence on a common directing variable or event this study uses contract disaggregated data on futures prices to obtain evidence on the relation between price variability and volume of trading strong positive contemporaneous correlations between trading volume and price volatility are documented consistent with the mixture of distributions hypothesis it is concluded that maturity is not a suitable surrogate for the common directing variable specifically while maturity has a strong effect on volume no such relation is found for price variability finally while in the majority of cases price variability and trading volume are contemporaneously correlated there are a significant number of cases in which a sequential relation appears to be present an earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1984 meeting of the european finance association in manchester england and at southern methodist university the university of wisconsin madison duke university mcgill university and the university of toronto we wish to thank the seminar participants and an anonymous referee from this journal for constructive comments and criticism all remaining errors are of course our responsibility we would also like to thank the columbia center for the study of futures markets and the interactive data corp for providing some of the data used in the study 1 see clark 1973 and harris 1984a 1984b