durable goods and product obsolescence the issue of product obsolescence is addressed by examining the optimal sales strategy of a monopolist firm that may introduce an improved version of its current product consumers expectations of a forthcoming product lowers the price that they are willing to pay for the current product because of its loss in value due to obsolescence the new product is characterized by consumers increased willingness to pay and by its competitive interaction with the old product these characteristics affect the tradeoff that the firm makes between the cost of waiting for new product sales versus the cost of cannibalizing these sales we analyze the effect of these characteristics of the new product on the firm s optimal sales strategy we consider the various policy measures available to the firm including limiting initial sales in order to lower cannibalization of the new product buying back the earlier version of the product in order to generate greater demand for the new product and announcements of future product introductions we find that for modest levels of product improvement the firm s optimal policy is to phase out sales of the old product while for large improvements a buy back policy is more profitable lastly we find that the firm is better off if it informs consumers whether a new product is forthcoming

market returns transfers and demand for schooling in malaysia 1976 89 if parents expect higher market returns to schooling or additional transfers from their children they invest more in their children s schooling results from models of schooling demand using data from the malaysian family life surveys of 1976 and 1989 suggest that market returns of mothers but not fathers positively affected schooling the propensity for parents to spend time with their parents had a small positive effect on education of daughters but other transfers had a weak negative effect the results suggest that if one generation perceives a low return to schooling then the next generation especially daughters pays the price of lower schooling

conspicuous consumption and sophisticated thinking consumers purchase conspicuous goods to satisfy not only material needs but also social needs such as prestige in an attempt to meet these social needs producers of conspicuous goods like cars perfumes and watches highlight the exclusivity of their products in this paper we propose a monopoly model of conspicuous consumption using the rational expectations framework and then examine how purchase decisions are affected by the desire for exclusivity and conformity we show that snobs can have an upward sloping demand curve but only in the presence of consumers who are weakly followers laboratory tests lend support for this model prediction and for the rational expectations framework the experimental results suggest that subjects used some degree of sophisticated thinking to arrive at their first period decisions their behavior in the subsequent trials however can be adequately captured by a purely adaptive learning mechanism we discuss the implications of consumer learning for optimal dynamic pricing policy by a monopolist

assessing monetary policies in the eurozone u s u k and japan new evidence from the post crisis period abstractthe global financial crisis of 2007 changed the way central banks implement monetary policies this article examines the transmission of both conventional and unconventional monetary polici

unemployment and early school leaving theoretical predictions about the effect of unemployment on school leaving are ambiguous unemployment might affect the decision to leave school in a number of different ways i current youth unemployment a higher probability of current unemployment for those who choose to leave school would tend to discourage early school leaving first by reducing the expected gains from job search a discouraged worker effect and second by reducing the opportunity cost of additional education ii expected future unemployment the theoretical predictions here are less clear cut an increase in the probability of future unemployment that affected both those with and without additional education would tend to reduce the rate of return to education and hence education demand on the other hand those with more education may be less affected by rises in unemployment and this may encourage further schooling these two opposing effects have been formalised as a shift and a tilt in the unemployment probability schooling relationship kodde i988 fig i suggests that in the united kingdom both effects could have accompanied the transition from the late 1970s to the i98o the full effects of uncertainty on education investment in a two period model depend on the correlation between the uncertainty in the two periods levhari and weiss 1974 how current unemployment rates are used to form expectations of future unemployment is clearly an important issue here also some individuals may be able to undertake job search before committing themselves to leave school and whilst affected by the risk of future unemployment may be comparatively unaffected by the risk of current unemployment iii effects ofparental unemployment parents unemployment in general reduces family income their children s educational demand may fall as a consequence for three reasons first the consumption demand for education will be lower second a reduction in the first period income reduces the investment demand for education assuming decreasing absolute risk aversion kodde i 988

research note trading up a strategic analysis of reference group effects reference groups influence product and brand evaluations especially when the product is a publicly consumed luxury good marketers of such luxury goods need to carefully balance two important social forces 1 the desire of leaders to distinguish themselves from followers and 2 the countervailing desire of followers to assimilate with leaders in this paper we examine the theoretical implications of these social forces for firm prices product design and target consumer selection we show that the presence of reference group effects can motivate firms to add costly features which provide limited or no functional benefit to consumers furthermore reference group effects can induce product proliferation on one hand and motivate firms to offer limited editions on the other hand we find that offering a limited edition can increase sales and profits in some cases reference group effects can even lead to a buying frenzy

the strategic bequest motive although recent research suggests that intergenerational transfers play an important role in aggregate capital accumulation our understanding of bequest motives remains incomplete we develop a simple model of strategic bequests in which a testator influences the decisions of his beneficiaries by holding wealth in bequeathable forms and by conditioning the division of bequests on the beneficiaries actions the model generates falsifiable empirical predictions that are inconsistent with other theories of intergenerational transfers we present econometric and other evidence that strongly suggests that bequests are often used as compensation for services rendered by beneficiaries

dynamic pricing of new experience goods we develop a dynamic model of experience goods pricing with independent private valuations we show that the optimal paths of sales and prices can be described in terms of a simple dichotomy in a mass market prices are declining over time in a niche market the optimal prices are initially low followed by higher prices that extract surplus from the buyers with a high willingness to pay we consider extensions of the model to integrate elements of social rather than private learning and turnover among buyers

term premia and inflation uncertainty empirical evidence from an international panel dataset this paper provides cross country empirical evidence on bond risk premia i construct a panel of zero coupon nominal government bond yields spanning ten industrialized countries and nearly two decades i hence compute forward rates and then use two different methods to decompose these forward rates into expected future short term interest rates and term premiums the first method uses an affine term structure model with macroeconomic variables as unspanned risk factors the second method uses surveys i find that term premium estimates declined across countries over the sample period especially in countries that appear to have reduced inflation uncertainty by making substantial changes in the monetary policy frameworks of their central banks during the recent financial crisis term premiums have remained flat and even declined further in some countries perhaps reflecting the effects of quantitative easing actions by many central banks

inter temporal variation in the illiquidity premium abstract we find evidence of a systematic link between monetary conditions and inter temporal variation in the price of liquidity specifically following an expansive monetary policy shift funding conditions improve and market wide liquidity increases which is especially beneficial for illiquid securities the improved liquidity and funding conditions reduce the returns required for holding illiquid securities consequently illiquid stocks experience relatively large price increases when monetary conditions become expansive and thus the measured return spread between illiquid and liquid stocks expands substantially overall our evidence supports the claim that the price of asset liquidity is dependent on monetary conditions

stock market reaction to fed funds rate surprises state dependence and the financial crisis this paper examines the response of us stock returns to federal funds rate ffr surprises between 1989 and 2012 focusing on the impact of the recent financial crisis we find that outside the crisis period stock prices increased as a response to unexpected ffr cuts state dependence is identified with stocks exhibiting larger increases when interest rate easing coincided with recessions bear markets and tightening credit conditions however an important structural shift occurred during the crisis changing the stocks response to ffr shocks and the nature of state dependence throughout the crisis period stocks did not react positively to unexpected ffr cuts which were interpreted as signals of worsening future economic conditions this triggered a rebalancing of investment portfolios away from falling equities and towards safe haven assets our results highlight the severity of the crisis and the ineffectiveness of conventional monetary policy close to the zero lower bound

altruism and beyond an economic analysis of transfers and exchanges within families and groups 1 introduction 2 altruism transfers and wellbeing 3 the timing of intergenerational transfers an implication 4 an exchange implication of transfers the demonstration effect 5 transfers by migrants a strategic motive for remittances 6 exchange with recognition costs an explanation of migrants performance 7 intrafamilial transfers and exchanges forming and sustaining altruism

returns to education a further international update and implications this paper updates evidence on the returns to investment in education by adding estimates for new countries and refining existing estimates to bring the total number of country cases to over 60 the new cross country evidence confirms and reinforces earlier patterns namely that returns are highest for primary education the general curricula the education of women and countries with the lowest per capita income the findings have important implications for directing future investment in education which for efficiency and equity purposes should concentrate on these priority areas

motivations to remit evidence from botswana in this article a theory of motivations to send remittances is described and tested with data from botswana altruism is one of the motivations tested and found to be an insufficient explanation for remittances among migrants in botswana a refinement of the model stipulates a modified altruism or enlightened self interest in this model the relationship between the migrant and family is tempered by an implicit understanding of mutual benefit the household strategy may be to encourage some members to migrate as a means of spreading risk and sharing gains the household strategy is similar to an insurance policy where migration is to places where market potential is high the risks incurred might be high the example is given of migration during a drought in botswana migrant remittances were greater in households with more cattle or households with more to lose drought alone was not statistically related to remittances increases in remittances were related to increased levels of education it is suggested that repayment was the motive for parents investment in migrants education migrants gains are identified as the potential for an inheritance the security of channeling investments through a trusted family member and security in having a home to return to it is pointed out that the altruism and family remittances from urban migration were strategies that bridged the simple dynamic of either urban development or rural development impacting on family welfare it is suggested that household models of economy adopt some measure to express the relationship of household wealth to remittances from urban migrants

conspicuous consumption and race using nationally representative data on consumption we show that blacks and hispanics devote larger shares of their expenditure bundles to visible goods clothing jewelry and cars than do comparable whites these differences exist among virtually all subpopulations are relatively constant over time and are economically large although racial differences in utility preference parameters might account for a portion of these consumption differences we emphasize instead a model of status seeking in which conspicuous consumption is used as a costly indicator of a household s economic position using merged data on race and state level income we demonstrate that a key prediction of the status signaling model that visible consumption should be declining in reference group income is strongly borne out in the data for each racial group moreover we show that accounting for differences in reference group income characteristics explains most of the racial difference in visible consumption

optimal financial crises empirical evidence suggests that banking panics are related to the business cycle and are not simply the result of sunspots panics occur when depositors perceive that the returns on bank assets are going to be unusually low we develop a simple model of this in this setting bank runs can be first best efficient they allow efficient risk sharing between early and late withdrawing depositors and they allow banks to hold efficient portfolios however if costly runs or markets for risky assets are introduced central bank intervention of the right kind can lead to a pareto improvement in welfare from the earliest times banks have been plagued by the problem of bank runs in which many or all of the bank s depositors attempt to withdraw their funds simultaneously because banks issue liquid liabilities in the form of deposit contracts but invest in illiquid assets in the form of loans they are vulnerable to runs that can lead to closure and liquidation a financial crisis or banking panic occurs when depositors at many or all of the banks in a region or a country attempt to withdraw their funds simultaneously prior to the twentieth century banking panics occurred frequently in europe and the united states panics were generally regarded as a bad thing and the development of central banks to eliminate panics and ensure financial stability has been an important feature of the history of financial systems it has been a long and involved process the first cerntral bank the bank of sweden was established more than 300 years ago the bank of england played an especially important role in the development of effective stabilization policies in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries by the end of the nineteenth century banking panics had been eliminated in europe the last true panic in england was the overend gurney company crisis of 1866

international effects of a compression of euro area yield curves abstract in this paper we use a bayesian global vector autoregressive model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a flattening of euro area yield curves our findings indicate positive effects on real activity and prices both within the euro area as well as in neighboring economies spillovers transmit through an exchange rate channel and a broad financial channel we complement our analysis by conducting a portfolio optimization exercise our results show that multi step ahead forecasts conditional on the euro area yield curve shock improve sharpe ratios relative to other investment strategies

examining asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area evidence from a mixed cross section global var model abstract i estimate the transmission of a common euro area monetary policy shock across individual euro area economies to do so i develop a global var model in which all euro area economies are included individually while at the same time their common monetary policy is modelled as a function of euro area aggregate output growth and inflation the results suggest that the transmission of monetary policy across euro area economies displays asymmetries and that in line with economic theory these are driven by differences in economies structural characteristics in particular euro area economies in which a higher share of aggregate output is accounted for by sectors servicing interest rate sensitive demand exhibit a stronger transmission of monetary policy to real activity similarly even though the evidence is less conclusive euro area economies which feature more real wage and or fewer unemployment rigidities also appear to display a stronger transmission of monetary policy to real activity

money financial stability and efficiency most analyses of banking crises assume that banks use real contracts however in practice contracts are nominal and this is what is assumed here we consider a standard banking model with aggregate return risk aggregate liquidity risk and idiosyncratic liquidity shocks we show that with non contingent nominal deposit contracts the first best efficient allocation can be achieved in a decentralized banking system what is required is that the central bank accommodates the demands of the private sector for fiat money variations in the price level allow full sharing of aggregate risks an interbank market allows the sharing of idiosyncratic liquidity risk in contrast idiosyncratic bank specific return risks cannot be shared using monetary policy alone real transfers are needed

house prices borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle i develop a general equilibrium model with sticky prices credit constraints nominal loans and asset prices changes in asset prices modify agents borrowing capacity through collateral value changes in nominal prices affect real repayments through debt deflation monetary policy shocks move asset and nominal prices in the same direction and are amplified and propagated over time the financial accelerator is not constant across shocks nominal debt stabilises supply shocks making the economy less volatile when the central bank controls the interest rate i discuss the role of equity debt indexation and household and firm leverage in the propagation mechanism finally i find that monetary policy should not target asset prices as a means of reducing output and inflation volatility

monetary policy in exceptional times this paper describes the way in which the european central bank ecb the federal reserve and the bank of england conducted monetary policy since the beginning of the financial crisis in august 2007 we argue that both quantitative easing and the other non standard measures introduced by central banks that changed the composition of the asset side of their balance sheets so called qualitative easing acted mainly through their effects on interest rates and in particular on money market spreads rather than solely through quantity effects in terms of the money supply we perform a quantitative exercise on the euro area which estimates the effect of the reduction of these spreads to the broader economy michele lenza huw pill and lucrezia reichlin

the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy announcements in the euro area an event and econometric study abstract we use daily data on government bond yields and market based inflation expectations to measure the announcement effects of unconventional monetary policy announcements in the euro area focusing on their impact on ex ante real interest rates we find evidence of statistically significant effects of several announcements on real interest rates at maturities of two five and ten years that operate partly through nominal interest rates and partly by raising inflation expectations announcements that exceeded market expectations significantly reduced nominal and real interest rates while announcements that disappointed expectations had the opposite effect

how do us credit supply shocks propagate internationally a gvar approach abstract we study how us credit supply shocks are transmitted to other economies we use the recently developed gvar approach to model financial variables jointly with macroeconomic variables in 33 countries for the period 1983 2009 we experiment with inter country links based on bilateral trade portfolio investment foreign direct investment and banking exposures capturing both bilateral trade and financial exposures in a gvar fits the data better than using trade weights only we use sign restrictions on the short run impulse responses in the us model to identify the credit supply shocks we find that negative credit supply shocks have strong negative effects on us and foreign gdp credit and equity markets in several countries respond clearly to the shocks exchange rate responses are consistent with a flight to quality to the us dollar the credit supply shocks explain about a fifth of one year ahead output forecast error variance in the us and about a tenth in the euro area and the uk but considerably less elsewhere

pricing of conspicuous goods a competitive analysis of social effects abstract social needs play an important role in the purchase of conspicuous goods in this article the authors extend traditional economic models to accommodate social needs such as desire for uniqueness and conformism and examine their implications for pricing conspicuous goods first in the context of a duopoly the authors identify the conditions under which the desire for uniqueness can increase demand among some consumers as the price of a product increases second the authors show that though the desire for uniqueness leads to higher prices and firm profits a desire for conformity leads to lower prices and profits third the authors find that consumers purchase high quality products not because of their desire for uniqueness but despite it finally marketers of conspicuous goods may find it beneficial not to emphasize the functional differences among their products when the need for uniqueness is high in a laboratory test the authors find support for the claim that demand for a product amo

investor sentiment and the stock market s reaction to monetary policy this paper shows that monetary policy decisions have a significant effect on investor sentiment the effect of monetary news on sentiment depends on market conditions bull versus bear market we also find that monetary policy actions in bear market periods have a larger effect on stocks that are more sensitive to changes in investor sentiment and credit market conditions overall the results show that investor sentiment plays a significant role in the effect of monetary policy on the stock market

conspicuous consumption and dynamic pricing how do firms develop marketing strategy when consumers seek to satisfy both quality and status related considerations we develop an analytical model to study this issue examining both pricing and product management decisions in markets for conspicuous durable goods our analysis yields many interesting and nontrivial insights first we demonstrate that high intrinsic quality indirectly generates exclusivity via pricing effects in turn this exclusivity generates considerable social payoffs where consumers value status this insight reverses the direction of causality in the existing literature wherein only status considerations matter and mere price increases may enhance consumer utility second our dynamic model indicates that where consumers prioritize status benefits producers incur substantial price depreciation in equilibrium third we examine the product management strategies used by firms to preserve early adopter exclusivity finally we discuss the boundary conditions of our results as well as our results implications for managerial and policy issues

investments in the schooling and health of women and men quantities and returns this paper surveys the evidence on recent trends in the growth of human capital investments in women that raised womens productivity in thus century in most countries patterns in school investments in men and women across regions and across birth cohorts within countries indicate that expected years of school enrollment is converging between low and high income countries to where the gaps have closed from about seven years in 1950 to five years in 1985 women today are receiving nearly as many years of education as men in industrially advanced high income countries latin america south east and east asia are relatively similar to the high income countries at the other extreme in most of the countries of south and west asia and north and sub saharan africa women receive about two fifths to three fourths the number of years of schooling as men do in every region however the ratio of female to male expected years of enrollment increased from 1950 to 1985 gender differences in mortality and nutritional status reveal that there has been a dramatic but largely unexplained advance in female longevity relative to male in the 20th century in most countries with the exception of certain countries in south asia this development is associated with the shift of populations from dependence on agriculture to working in urban areas these changes are a major source of decreasing inequality within and between countries in this century market failure could be responsible for families investing less than the socially efficient amount in girls than boys there are problems in measuring without bias these private and social return empirical patterns across countries in estimated returns to schooling illustrate that private returns at the primary secondary and higher education levels can vary for women and men

stock market liquidity and macro liquidity shocks evidence from the 2007 2009 financial crisis we develop an empirical framework that links micro liquidity macro liquidity and stock prices we provide evidence of a strong link between macro liquidity shocks and the returns of uk stock portfolios constructed on the basis of micro liquidity measures between 1999 and 2012 specifically macro liquidity shocks which are extracted on the meeting days of the bank of england monetary policy committee mpc relative to market expectations embedded in 3 month libor futures prices are transmitted in a differential manner to the cross section of liquidity sorted portfolios with liquid stocks playing the most active role we also find that there is a significant increase in shares trading activity and a rather small increase in their trading cost on mpc meeting days finally our results emphatically document that during the recent financial crisis the shocks returns relationship has reversed its sign interest rate cuts during the crisis were perceived by market participants as a signal of deteriorating economic prospects and reinforced flight to safety trading

design innovation and fashion cycles a model of fashion cycles is developed in which designs are used as a signaling device in a dating game a monopolist periodically creates a new design over time the price of the design falls as it spreads across the population once sufficiently many consumers own the design it is profitable to create a new design and thereby render the old design obsolete this paper gives conditions under which all consumers would be better off by banning the use of fashion competition among designers may lead to less frequent changes in fashion and to higher prices than monopoly copyright 1995 by american economic association

market and public liquidity as the record of federal reserve interventions over the past year from december 2007 to december 2008 makes abundantly clear a foremost concern of monetary authorities in responding to the financial crisis has been to avoid a repeat of the great depression and especially a repeat of the monetary contraction that milton friedman and anna schwartz 1963 have claimed as the major cause of the 1930s depression the fed has shown tremendous resourcefulness and inventiveness in its liquidity injections considerably widening the collateral eligible under the discount window and the term auction facility and setting up new programs targeted at primary dealers the commercial paper market and money market funds at the same time it has stepped in to offer guarantees on assets held by some financial institutions e g citigroup to avoid their bankruptcy see david enrich et al 2008 this unprecedented intervention has had the intended effect of averting a major systemic financial meltdown and it has kept some critical financial institutions afloat yet until now banks have mostly responded by cutting new lending and hoarding liquidity so that the ultimate goal of forestalling a credit crunch has not been achieved for the most part banks also are still holding most of the toxic assets that monetary policy liquidity and financial crises

the supply of children s time to disabled elderly parents i introduction in recent years economists have become increasingly interested in intergenerational transfers of both time and money 1 such transfers may be motivated by altruism or exchange models of altruism assume that a person s utility depends on the consumption or utility of other family members and her own consumption for example children may supply unpaid informal care to aging parents because their utility increases when their parents are happier one of the most striking predictions of models of altruism is that public subsidies tend to crowd out transfers by altruistic individuals especially if the subsidy is financed by taxing the altruistic individual becker 1974 in exchange models there is typically altruism but one family member such as a parent can induce a relative such as a child or kid 2 to provide more services or money than the relative would normally provide by threatening to withhold a bequest to the extent that this is so one would plausibly expect more care and attention to be provided to wealthy parents when there is more than one kid more care should be provided because the threat of disinheritance is more credible when there is competition between kids for bequests in a well known article bernheim shleifer and summers 1985 hereafter referred to as bss found empirical support for the strategic bequest motive based on an observed positive relationship between children s visits and telephone calls to elderly parents per child as the measure of attention and bequeathable wealth per child as the measure of the financial motivation for providing such attention one might expect this result to extend to decisions about direct provision of help informal care that kids may provide to parents the marginal benefit of such care is plausibly greater than the benefit derived from a visit or telephone call in a recent article however we found no evidence that the strategic bequest motive is an important determinant of the amount of informal care kids provide or a related decision whether or not to place the parent in a nursing home sloan hoerger and picone 1996 we focused on the distinction between cognitively aware parents who can threaten to disinherit their kids and cognitively unaware parents who cannot disinherit and examined whether this distinction had any effect on the probability that the parent entered a nursing home or on amounts of formal and informal care received if the parent remained in the community any strategic effects were swamped by the greater marginal benefit of care to the parent when the parent was cognitively unaware moreover among the cognitively aware richer parents actually received less informal care contrary to the strategic model s predictions unfortunately in past research on intergenerational transfers of time and money it was not possible to control for the wealth wage and other characteristics of kids to the extent that kid s wealth and wage were positively correlated with parent s wealth which was observed the parameter estimates on parent s wealth may be negatively biased although parent s wealth and kid s wealth and wage rates are plausibly positively correlated they have opposite effects on the supply of kid s time according to the strategic bequest model that is potential bequests from a parent may be less attractive to rich kids and therefore induce less care we test the strategic bequest model using information on elderly parents and their children from two linked surveys the 1989 national long term care survey nltcs for elderly individuals and the survey of informal caregivers sic for a subsample of the elderly s children using these data we can include explicit measures of kid s wealth and wage rates thereby avoiding the possible bias introduced by a correlation between parent s and kid s wealth and wages also the data sets provide information on several pertinent health cognitive and functional status variables which are not typically observed in surveys of financial status

the transmission of international shocks a factor augmented var approach the empirical literature on the transmission of international shocks is based on small scale vars in this paper we use a large panel of data for 17 industrialized countries to investigate the international transmission mechanism and revisit the anomalies that arise in the empirical literature we propose a factor augmented var favar that extends the model in bernanke boivin and eliasz 2003 to the open economy the main results can be summarized as follows first the dynamic effects on the uk economy of an unanticipated fall of short term interest rates in the rest of the world are real house price inflation investment gdp and consumption growth peak after one year wages peak after two years cpi and gdp deflator inflation peak during the third year second a positive international supply shock makes the distribution of the components of the uk consumption deflator negatively skewed third in response to a domestic monetary shock we find no evidence of the exchange rate and liquidity puzzles and little evidence of the forward discount and price anomalies

monetary policy surprises and interest rates evidence from the fed funds futures market abstract this paper estimates the impact of monetary policy actions on bill note and bond yields using data from the futures market for federal funds to separate changes in the target funds rate into anticipated and unanticipated components interest rates response to anticipated target rate changes is small while their response to unanticipated changes is large and highly significant these responses are generally consistent with the expectations hypothesis of the term structure surprise target rate changes have little effect on expectations of future actions however which helps to explain the lack of empirical support for the expectations hypothesis at the short end of the yield curve

regional returns to education child labour and schooling in india abstract we offer evidence from india that higher regional returns to primary education not only increase the likelihood that boys and girls attend school but also decrease the likelihood that they work these relationships hold only for the top three quintiles of the income distribution and mostly for children in the age group 10 14 years the former result suggests that liquidity constraints may not allow poorer households to respond to the economic benefits of education policies that raise the economic benefits of education may increase human capital investments in households that do not rely on their children s incomes for survival however low schooling and high child labour will persist among credit constrained families unless these households are provided with the economic ability to respond to these benefits

limited edition products when and when not to offer them many brands today introduce limited edition le products as part of their product line however little is known about the conditions under which a brand should introduce an le product or the competitive implications of doing so we investigate this issue using a game theoretic model of a market where two brands compete for consumers who desire exclusivity our analysis shows that adding an le product has a positive direct effect on brand profits through the increased willingness of consumers to pay for such a product but also has a negative strategic effect by increasing price competition between brands these effects result in different conclusions depending on the nature of brand differentiation when brands differ in quality we show that only the high quality brand may gain in comparison to a scenario where there are no le products although a low quality brand may offer an le product as a defensive strategy its profits are lower than would be in a world without le products because of the negative strategic effect when we consider brands that are differentiated on a horizontal attribute such as taste we find that the negative strategic effects cause lower equilibrium profits if both brands introduce le products yet brands cannot avoid introducing le products because they face a prisoners dilemma

macroeconomic cycles and the stock market s reaction to monetary policy abstract this paper examines cyclical variation in the effect of fed policy on the stock market we find a much stronger response of stock returns to unexpected changes in the federal funds target rate in recession and in tight credit market conditions using firm level data we also show that firms that face financial constraints are more affected by monetary shocks in tight credit conditions than the relatively unconstrained firms overall the results are consistent with the credit channel of monetary policy transmission

international spillovers from euro area and us credit and demand shocks a focus on emerging europe abstract in this paper we examine the international effects of contractions in loan supply loan demand and aggregate demand in the euro area and the usa all three shocks have been at the forefront in spreading stress during the period of the global financial crisis and in particular so to countries that are strongly integrated with the euro area we find that these shocks decrease international output and total credit to a varying degree loan demand and aggregate demand shocks in the euro area trigger significant negative spillovers on output in most other regions evidence for global negative output effects of euro area loan supply shocks is fraught with considerable estimation uncertainty when these three types of shocks emanate from the usa we find significant negative spillovers on output also for loan supply shocks in general international effects on total credit are an order of magnitude larger than those on output with again more evidence that is significant for us than euro area shocks last and taking a regional stance our results indicate that economies from emerging europe are most vulnerable to all shocks considered through their strong economic integration with the euro area these economies are likewise exposed to euro area and us shocks and spillover effects are often larger than the domestic response in the country of shock origin

investigating time variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread abstract we use bayesian time varying parameters vars with stochastic volatility to investigate changes in the marginal predictive content of the yield spread for output growth in the united states and the united kingdom since the gold standard era and in the eurozone canada and australia over the post wwii period overall our evidence does not provide much support for either of the two dominant explanations why the yield spread may contain predictive power for output growth the monetary policy based one and harvey s 1988 the real term structure and output growth journal of financial economics 22 305 333 real yield curve one instead we offer a new conjecture

legal institutions and fragile financial markets abstract this study investigates equity liquidity variation with a funding constraint across 38 countries and examines whether the effectiveness of a country s legal institutions is systematically related to cross country differences in fragile equity liquidity our results show that firms from countries with more extensive disclosure requirements tend to have lower liquidity shocks due to funding constraints leading to higher firm value this effect is stronger for ex ante disclosures especially for countries with a high level of openness and market volatility our empirical results are robust to the 2sls regression model the random effect regression model the alternative measure of fragile equity liquidity and the alternative measure of disclosure and enforcement variables our study provides a better understanding of the effect of information environments amidst periods of funding constraint

social learning neighborhood effects and investment in human capital evidence from green revolution india abstract this paper empirically identifies social learning and neighborhood effects in schooling investments in a new technology regime social learning implies that learning is most efficient when observed heterogeneity in schooling is greatest the estimates of learning investment rule from farm household panel data at the onset of the green revolution in india show that i agents learn about schooling returns from income realizations of their neighbors and ii the speed of learning is high when the variation of schooling is large thus schooling distribution of the parents generation in a community has externalities to schooling investments in children simulations show that the variations in schooling within and across communities generate variations in child enrollment rate and average household income

motives for private income transfers private income transfers are becoming increasingly recognized as a key aspect of the u s economy the majority of private income transfers occur inter vivos i e between living persons but very little is known about this type of transfer behavior this paper tests alternative hypotheses concerning motivation for inter vivos transfers two motives are considered altruism and exchange evidence presented here casts doubt on the altruistic model of transfer behavior observed patterns for inter vivos transfers are more consistent with exchange related motives this finding has important implications for the effects of public transfer programs on the distribution of economic well being

the lender of last resort in the wake of the crash scholars since henry thornton and walter bagehot have advised central banks to lend in a crisis to any deserving customer who is illiquid but solvent aid should be given quickly visibly in large amounts when necessary temporarily and comprehensively the loans should not subsidize errors of judgement disrupt long term monetary policy goals or promote moral hazard they should restore confidence prevent panic and contain spillover today students of the lender of last resort llr also advise that recipients should be chosen equitably and aid be dispensed fairly see my study with elizabeth plautz 1988 the federal reserve in executing its llr responsibilities accepts most of these precepts two departures were particularly evident in october 1987 however first the fed prefers to lend to commercial banks and does not lend directly to just any type of organization second it likes to operate behind closed doors the possibility of further financial deregulation particularly the union of commercial and investment banking and the postcrash reform of the stock options and futures markets raise the question whether the federal reserve s preferences can continue to be met

an empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity this article explores cross market liquidity dynamics by estimating a vector autoregressive model for liquidity bid ask spread and depth returns volatility and order flow in the stock and treasury bond markets innovations to stock and bond market liquidity and volatility are significantly correlated implying that common factors drive liquidity and volatility in these markets volatility shocks are informative in predicting shifts in liquidity during crisis periods monetary expansions are associated with increased liquidity moreover money flows to government bond funds forecast bond market liquidity the results establish a link between macro liquidity or money flows and micro or transactions liquidity a number of important theorems in finance rely on the ability of investors to trade any amount of a security without affecting the price however there exist several frictions 1 such as trading costs short sale restrictions and circuit breakers that impact price formation the influence of market imperfections on security pricing has long been recognized liquidity in particular has attracted a lot of attention from traders regulators

monetary policy and long run systemic risk taking as an extension to the literature on the risk taking channel of monetary policy this paper studies the existence of a systemic risk taking channel srtc in the eurozone through an original macroeconomic perspective based on causality measures because the srtc is effective after an incubation period we make a distinction between short and long term causality following the methodology proposed by dufour and taamouti 2010 we find that causality from monetary policy to systemic risk while not significant in the very short term robustly represents 75 to 100 of the total dependence between the two variables in the long run reverse causality is rejected systemic risk did not influence the policy of the european central bank before the global financial crisis however central banks must be aware that a too loose monetary policy stance may be conducive to a build up of systemic risk

optimal price skimming by a monopolist facing rational consumers this paper considers the intertemporal pricing problem for a monopolist marketing a new product the key feature differentiating this paper from the extant management science literature on intertemporal pricing is the assumption that consumers are intertemporal utility maximizers a subgame perfect nash equilibrium pricing policy is characterized and shown to involve intertemporal price discrimination we compare this policy to the optimal policy for a monopolist facing myopic consumers and find that for any given state prices are always lower with rational consumers than with myopic consumers for plausible parameter values the assumption of consumer rationality can be shown to lead to large differences in optimal prices moreover if a monopolist facing rational consumers implements the optimal myopic consumer pricing policy profits can be significantly less than if the monopolist follows the equilibrium pricing policy for rational consumers

international portfolio diversification with estimation risk international portfolio diversification has long been advocated as a way of enhancing average returns while reducing portfolio risk for the investor who considers diversifying into foreign securities this proposition however relies on the assumption that the required inputs to the classical mean variance analysis are known with certainty typically expected returns variances and covariances are simply replaced by their ex post sample values and the optimal portfolio is derived without mentioning the uncertainty inherent in these parameter values but the rational investor should take this uncertainty into account when forming expectations and probably will consider estimators that are less subject to estimation error than the classical sample mean this paper investigates alternative estimators of expected returns and their implications for the alleged gains from diversification an important observation is the crucial influence that errors in estimating expected returns have on portfolio analysis a closer examiprevious studies of international portfolio diversification have relied on ex post meanvariance analysis without considering the problem of estimation risk typically past averages are substituted for expected returns and no allowance is made for the uncertainty inherent in these parameter values first i demonstrate the shortcomings of such an approach and second i investigate another method of estimating expected returns initially proposed by stein by shrinking the sample averages toward a common mean i find that the out of sample performance of the optimal portfolio is substantially increased one of the implications of this method is that the classical conclusions vastly overestimate the possible gains in average returns instead benefits from diversification are more likely to accrue from a reduction in risk this paper draws on part of my dissertation at the university of chicago i am grateful to arnold zellner michael mussa george constantinides and especially john bilson for useful discussions and comments numerous improvements were also suggested by the referee this research received the generous financial support of the college interuniversitaire d etudes doctorales dans les sciences du management

international spillovers of ecb s unconventional monetary policy the effect on central europe abstractwe examine how unconventional monetary policy of the european central bank ecb influences macroeconomic stability in three central european economies we estimate various panel vector autoregressions pvars using monthly data from 2008 to 2014 using the shadow policy rate and central bank assets as measures of unconventional policies we find that output growth and inflation in central europe temporarily increase following an expansionary unconventional monetary policy shock by the ecb using both impulse responses and variance decompositions we find that the effect of unconventional policies on output growth is much stronger than the effect on inflation

conspicuous consumption snobbism and conformism abstract we develop a model in which consumers purchase a conspicuous good in order to signal high income and thereby achieve greater social status in equilibrium the signalling value of conspicuous consumption depends in an identifiable way on the number of consumers and consumer behaviour is characterized by either snobbism or conformism the market demand curve for the conspicuous good may exhibit a positive slope if consumers are conformist we derive some unconventional policy implications concerning the taxation of luxuries and the voluntary provision of public goods

were there regime switches in u s monetary policy working paper 2004 14 june 2004 abstract a multivariate model identifying monetary policy and allowing for simultaneity and regime switching in coefficients and variances is confronted with u s data since 1959 the best fit is with a model that allows time variation in structural disturbance variances only among models that also allow for changes in equation coefficients the best fit is for a model that allows coefficients to change only in the monetary policy rule that model allows switching among three main regimes and one rarely and briefly occurring regime the three main regimes correspond roughly to periods when most observers believe that monetary policy actually differed and the differences in policy behavior are substantively interesting though statistically ill determined the estimates imply monetary targeting was central in the early 80s but was also important sporadically in the 70s the changes in regime were essential neither to the rise in inflation in the 70s nor to its decline in the 80s jel classification e52 e47 c53 key words counterfactuals lucas critique policy rule monetary targeting simultaneity volatility model comparison i the debate over monetary policy change in an influential paper clarida gali and gertler 2000 cgg presented evidence that us monetary policy changed between the 1970 s and the 1980 s indeed that in the 70 s it was drastically worse they found that the policy rule apparently followed in the 70 s was one that when embedded in most stochastic general equilibrium models would imply non uniqueness of the equilibrium and hence vulnerability of the economy to sunspot fluctuations of arbitrarily large size their estimated policy rule for the later period on the other hand eliminated this indeterminacy these results are a possible explanation of the volatile and rising inflation of the 70 s and of its subsequent decline the cgg analysis has two important weaknesses one is that it fails to account for stochastic volatility us macroeconomic variables and particularly the federal funds rate have gone through periods of tranquility and of agitation with forecast error variances varying greatly from period to period ignoring such variation does not lead to inconsistent estimates of model parameters when the forecasting equations themselves are constant but it strongly biases toward a finding of changed parameters tests of the stability of the forecasting equations the other weakness is that the cgg analysis rests on powerful and implausible identifying assumptions they require that we accept that the response of the monetary authority to expected future inflation and output does not depend on the recent history of inflation money growth or output it is hard to understand why this should be so especially in the 70 s when monetarism was a prominent theme in policy debates congress was requiring reports from the fed of projected time paths of monetary aggregates and financial markets were reacting sensitively to weekly money supply numbers the requirement for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in dynamic models is that the monetary policy rule show a more than unit response of interest rates to the sum of the logs of all nominal variables that appear on the right hand side of the reaction function if we force a particular measure of expected future inflation to proxy for all the nominal variables that actually appear independently in the reaction function we are bound to get distorted conclusions on the one hand because expected future inflation will be a noisy measure of the full set of nominal influences on policy we might get downward bias in our estimates from the usual errorsin variables effect on the other hand to the extent that expected future inflation like most expected future values shows less variation than current nominal variables we could find a mistaken scaling up of coefficients

interest rate trap or why does the central bank keep the policy rate too low for too long time this paper provides a framework for modeling the risk taking channel of monetary policy the mechanism how financial intermediaries incentives for liquidity transformation are affected by the central bank s reaction to financial crisis anticipating central bank s reaction to liquidity stress gives banks incentives to invest in excessive liquidity transformation triggering an interest rate trap the economy will remain stuck in a long lasting period of sub optimal low interest rate equilibrium we demonstrate that interest rate policy as financial stabilizer is dynamically inconsistent and the constraint efficient outcome can be implemented by imposing ex ante liquidity requirements

gender inequality endogenous cultural norms and economic development this research focuses on the role played by cultural norms in the long run persistence of gender inequalities cultural norms about gender roles are considered to be endogenous and can generate gender inequality and low development traps indeed when the gender gap is internalized it leads to inegalitarian views about gender roles due to these inegalitarian beliefs boys receive more education and the initial gender gap is reinforced the existence of gender inequality traps is pointed out by the world bank as a major obstacle for economic development wdr 2006 the present article allows for a better understanding of the persistence of such traps and the means to escape

liquidity shortages and banking crises we show in this article that bank failures can be contagious unlike earlier work where contagion stems from depositor panics or contractual links between banks we argue that bank failures can shrink the common pool of liquidity creating or exacerbating aggregate liquidity shortages this could lead to a contagion of failures and a total meltdown of the system given the costs of a meltdown there is a possible role for government intervention unfortunately liquidity and solvency problems interact and can cause each other making it hard to determine the cause of a crisis we propose a robust sequence of intervention banks are often found at the center of systemic financial crises the causes of these crises have long been debated do they stem from depositor panics or do they arise because bank balance sheets are exposed to common factors if it is the latter then is there any sense in which bank failures can be contagious can anything be done to prevent these crises or stop them from propagating once they begin our purpose in this paper is to reexamine whether bank failures can start and propagate systemic crises even if we assume that depositors do not panic that is even if depositors actions are coordinated and they do not run simply because they fear others will run our focus is not because we think that panics are empirically unimportant the jury is still out on that instead we show that contagion can stem from an underlying real general equilibrium problem rather than just from lack of coordination among depositors from a policy perspective attempts to reassure investors through confidence building measures will not work if panic and lack of coordination are not the reasons for a crisis we begin in this paper with a model of a bank that we developed in diamond and rajan 2001 assets in this model are illiquid they cannot be borrowed against or sold for the full value of resources they will generate in their best use because the human capital necessary to generate that full value cannot

entry of copycats of luxury brands we develop a game theoretic model to examine the entry of copycats and its implications by incorporating two salient features these features are two product attributes i e physical resemblance and product quality and two consumer utilities i e consumption utility and status utility our equilibrium analysis suggests that copycats with a high physical resemblance but low product quality are more likely to successfully enter the market by defying the deterrence of the incumbent furthermore we show that higher quality can prevent the copycat from successfully entering the market finally we show that the entry of copycats does not always improve consumer surplus and social welfare in particular when the quality of the copycat is sufficiently low the loss in status utility from consumers of the incumbent product overshadows the small gain in consumption utility from buyers of the copycat leading to an overall decrease in consumer surplus and social welfare

consumer choice between hedonic and utilitarian goods abstract in this article the authors examine how consumer choice between hedonic and utilitarian goods is influenced by the nature of the decision task building on research on elaboration the authors propose that the relative salience of hedonic dimensions is greater when consumers decide which of several items to give up forfeiture choices than when they decide which item to acquire acquisition choices the resulting hypothesis that a hedonic item is relatively preferred over the same utilitarian item in forfeiture choices than in acquisition choices was supported in two choice experiments in a subsequent experiment these findings were extended to hypothetical choices in which the acquisition and forfeiture conditions were created by manipulating initial attribute level reference states instead of ownership finally consistent with the experimental findings a field survey showed that relative to market prices owners of relatively hedonic cars value their vehicles more than do owners of relat

veblen effects in a theory of conspicuous consumption the authors examine conditions under which veblen effects arise from the desire to achieve social status by signaling wealth through conspicuous consumption while veblen effects cannot ordinarily arise when preferences satisfy a single crossing property they may emerge when this property fails in that case budget brands are priced at marginal cost while luxury brands though not intrinsically superior are sold at higher prices to consumers seeking to advertise wealth luxury brands earn strictly positive profits under conditions that would with standard formulations of preferences yield marginal cost pricing the authors explore factors that induce veblen effects and they investigate policy implications copyright 1996 by american economic association

stock and bond market liquidity a long run empirical analysis this paper establishes liquidity linkage between stock and treasury bond markets there is a lead lag relationship between illiquidity of the two markets and bidirectional granger causality the effect of stock illiquidity on bond illiquidity is consistent with flight toquality or flight to liquidity episodes monetary policy impacts illiquidity the evidence indicates that bond illiquidity acts as a channel through which monetary policy shocks are transferred into the stock market these effects are observed across illiquidity of bonds of different maturities and are especially pronounced for illiquidity of short term maturities the paper provides evidence of illiquidity integration between stock and bond markets

higher education enrolment in bangladesh does the wage premium matter abstractthis paper empirically examines the decisions of individuals to enrol in a course of tertiary education in bangladesh focussing on the period 1999 to 2009 of particular interest is whethe

quantitative easing and unconventional monetary policy an introduction this article assesses the impact of quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policies followed by central banks in the wake of the financial crisis that began in 2007 we consider the implications of theoretical models for the effectiveness of asset purchases and look at the evidence from a range of empirical studies we also provide an overview of the contributions of the other articles in this feature

whatever it takes to resolve the european sovereign debt crisis bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects this paper investigates the role of unconventional monetary policy as a source of time variation in the relationship between sovereign bond yield spreads and their fundamental determinants we use a two step empirical approach first we apply a time varying parameter panel modelling framework to determine shifts in the pricing regime characterising sovereign bond markets in the euro area over the period january 1999 to july 2016 second we estimate the impact of ecb policy interventions on the time varying risk factor sensitivities of spreads our results provide evidence of a new bond pricing regime following the announcement of the outright monetary transactions omt programme in august 2012 this regime is characterised by a weakened link between spreads and fundamentals but with higher spreads relative to the pre crisis period and residual redenomination risk we also find that unconventional monetary policy measures affect the pricing of sovereign risk not only directly but also indirectly through changes in banking risk overall the actions of the ecb have operated as catalysts for reversing the dynamics of the european sovereign debt crisis

seasonal hunger and its mitigation in north west bangladesh seasonal hunger may result from seasonality of agriculture when households fail to smooth income and consumption using household survey data from the northwest region of bangladesh this paper examines alternative measures of seasonal hunger and provides some evidence to support policies and programs needed to mitigate seasonal hunger the results suggest that a large majority of food vulnerable households are the perpetual poor as opposed to a small percentage of households who are subject to food deprivation only during the lean period findings suggest that government safety net programs and microcredit provide a cushion for the poor to stave off seasonal hunger

assessing the economy wide effects of quantitative easing this article examines the macroeconomic impact of the first round of quantitative easing qe by the bank of england we attempt to quantify the effects of these purchases by focusing on the impact of lower long term interest rates on the wider economy we use three different models to estimate the impact of qe on output and inflation a large bayesian vector autoregression var a change point structural var and a time varying parameter var our estimates suggest that qe may have had a peak effect on the level of real gdp of around and a peak effect on annual cpi inflation of about points