unraveling the effects of environmental outcomes and processes on financial performance a non linear approach abstract we examine the roles of the outcome and process dimensions of environmental performance in determining financial performance as measured by tobin s q outcomes refer to the impacts of the firm on the natural environment while processes are the firm s actions to reduce these outcomes we focus on a specific outcome carbon emissions and suggest that it affects tobin s q non linearly we find that firms achieve the highest financial performance when their carbon performance is neither low nor high but intermediate we also find that environmental processes moderate this relationship as they reinforce firms financial performance through improved stakeholder management this mixed picture suggests that firms do not generally internalize the costs of poor carbon performance but those that stand out in both environmental outcomes and processes achieve net financial benefits these findings are based on a sample of carbon intensive firms that disclosed their greenhouse gas ghg emissions through the carbon disclosure project from 2007 through 2013

the power of parties evidence from close municipal elections in norway we show that small shifts in representation can affect policy in proportional election systems using data from norway we find that a larger left wing party leads to more property taxation higher child care spending and less elderly care spending while local public goods appear to be a non partisan issue these effects are partly due to shifts in bloc majorities and partly due to changes in the left right position of the council keeping the majority constant the estimates on spending allocations are rather imprecise but they are consistent with evidence on politicians fiscal preferences and patterns in media attention this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

credit and market risks measurement in carbon financing for chinese banks abstract this paper concerns the risk analysis of six chinese banks which are involved in carbon financing factor copula is introduced to simulate the corresponding carbon finance credit risk and market risk by latent variables in an indirect method in short the four common factors in carbon financing exchange rates interest rates cer price and brent oil prices are analyzed and explored in factor copula approach that incorporates kmv garch models in two steps the kmv and garch models are used to generate data that reflects the overall credit and market risk associated with each bank both normal copula and t copula functions are used to simulate the parameter estimations for comparison in a new way the value at risk for each of the six banks is calculated through a monte carlo simulation and compared additionally we calculate shock estimates for each factor to explore the changes in both credit risk and market risk given economic shocks also make a hypothetical analysis of the impact of the financial crisis on common factors overall our findings reveal that exchange rates and oil prices are the key factors to consider in carbon financing ping an bank is facing the most risk of all the banks in the sample while the industrial and commercial bank of china is carrying the least risk the results of this analysis gave provide some insight into domestic carbon trading and carbon markets connectivity

integration of carbon risks and opportunities in enterprise risk management systems evidence from australian firms this study addresses managerial perceptions of risks and opportunities related to carbon pricing and emission management and the factors that affect the extent to which carbon related risks and opportunities are integrated into the organisation s formal enterprise risk management erm system we assess the role played by internal governance features resource availability managerial perceptions on competitive pressures and industry type on the inclusion of carbon risks within the erm system based on survey responses from 96 senior managers in australian carbon intensive firms i e firms listed in the 2009 publication of data under section 24 of the national greenhouse and energy reporting nger act 2007 we find that the extent of carbon risk integration is positively associated with the existence of a formal carbon strategy senior management involvement internal audit oversight resource personnel and funds availability and energy sector membership the paper also provides several insights into the perceptions of risks and opportunities confronting an organisation as a result of carbon pricing mechanism

evidence on whether banks consider carbon risk in their lending decisions banks face a dilemma in choosing between maximising profits and facilitating the sustainable use of resources within a carbon constrained future this study provides empirical evidence on this dilemma investigating whether a bank loan announcement for a firm with high carbon risk conveys information to investors about the firm s carbon risk exposure collected through a bank s pre loan screening and ongoing monitoring we use a sample of 120 bank loan announcements for asx listed firms over the period 2009 2015 we measure high low carbon risk exposure based on whether firms meet do not meet the reporting threshold of the nger scheme we document positive and significant excess loan announcement returns for loan renewals for high carbon risk firms but not for loan initiations further we document a more significant loan announcement return for renewals with favourable term revisions finally we find no evidence that the market differentiates between domestic and foreign lenders taken together our results suggest that investors perceive that banks incorporate carbon risk considerations into their lending decisions our results highlight the value of banks as financial intermediaries given the information asymmetry surrounding firms carbon risk exposure and more generally the need to extend modern banking theory to consider issues such as the impact of banks csr reputation on lending decisions

using elasticities to derive optimal income tax rates this paper derives optimal income tax formulas using compensated and uncompensated elasticities of earnings with respect to tax rates a simple formula for the high income optimal tax rate is obtained as a function of these elasticities and the thickness of the top tail of the income distribution in the general non linear income tax problem this method using elasticities shows precisely how the different economic effects come into play and which are the key relevant parameters in the optimal income tax formulas of mirrlees the optimal non linear tax rate formulas are expressed in terms of elasticities and the shape of the income distribution these formulas are implemented numerically using empirical earning distributions and a range of realistic elasticity parameters

political representation and public contracting evidence from municipal legislatures abstract this study examines how partisan representation in multiparty legislatures affects direct expenditures contract allocation design and selection of politically connected firms as suppliers in public procurement for identification i exploit quasi random variation in partisan electoral outcomes near the effective representation thresholds in czech proportional municipal elections my regression discontinuity estimates suggest that partisan representation matters for public procurement for instance if local level political parties barely enter legislatures at the expense of the national parties municipalities decrease their direct procurement spending and allocate fewer contracts to the corporate donors of the national parties fewer contracts are awarded especially in pre election years and in auctions restricting competition among procurement suppliers the results are not associated with higher government fragmentation or selection of more competent candidates but rather with reduced political power of the national parties

foundations of dominant strategy mechanisms wilson 1987 criticizes applied game theory s reliance on common knowledge as sumptions in reaction to wilson s critique the recent literature of mechanism design has adopted the goal of finding detail free mechanisms in order to eliminate this re liance in practice this has meant restricting attention to simple mechanisms such as dominant strategy mechanisms however there has been little theoretical foundation for this approach in particular it is not clear the search for an optimal mechanism that does not rely on common knowledge assumption would lead to simpler mechanisms rather than more complicated ones this paper tries to fill the void in the context of an expected revenue maximizing auctioneer we investigate some foundations for using simple dominant strategy auctions

does weather or energy prices affect carbon prices abstract this study investigates the extent that key energy prices coal gas oil and electricity and weather explain carbon prices a key feature of the european union emissions trading scheme eu ets and whether this relationship changed since full auctioning came into effect in 2013 energy prices were found to impact the carbon price in phase iii of the eu ets however modelling based solely on energy prices explained only 12 of carbon price variation weather variables did not affect the carbon price except for unanticipated temperature changes these results indicate that it is not the level of temperature that impacts the carbon price rather it is unanticipated changes in temperature that matter given that climate change is associated with increased variance in temperature this result is consistent with climate change resulting in greater carbon price volatility and higher hedging costs

a statistical model for multiparty electoral data we propose an internally consistent and comprehensive statistical model for analyzing multiparty district level aggregate election data this model can be used to explain or predict how the geographic distribution of electoral results depends upon economic conditions neighborhood ethnic compositions campaign spending and other features of the election campaign or characteristics of the aggregate areas we also provide several new graphical representations for help in data exploration model evaluation and substantive interpretation although the model applies more generally we use it to help resolve an important controversy over the size of and trend in the electoral advantage of incumbency in great britain contrary to previous analyses which are all based on measures now known to be biased we demonstrate that the incumbency advantage is small but politically meaningful we also find that it differs substantially across the parties about half a percent for the conservatives 1 for the labor party and 3 for the liberal party and its successors also contrary to previous research we show that these effects have not grown in recent years finally we are able to estimate from which party each party s incumbency advantage is predominantly drawn

entrapment in large technology systems institutional commitment and power relations abstract large technology systems cannot be developed without social commitments usually including legal especially in the form of contracts organisational involving producers users and financiers and political involving various actors associated with the state commitments without such commitments there can be no innovation and no investment given the high risks that are entailed however embedded commitments can create inertia causing inferior technologies and technology paths to survive long after they should have been abandoned this form of technological lock in may be reinforced when there are close relations between producers and states which prevent markets and democratic processes from operating effectively these phenomena are illustrated through study of the thermal oxide reprocessing plant thorp a nuclear reprocessing plant in the uk the lesson for technology policy is that much more attention needs to be given to the maintenance of reversibility and adaptability in infrastructural development

managerial turnover in a changing world we develop a dynamic theory of managerial turnover in a world in which the quality of the match between a firm and its managers changes stochastically over time shocks to managerial productivity are anticipated at the time of contracting but privately observed by the managers our key positive result shows that the firm s optimal retention decisions become more permissive with time our key normative result shows that compared to what is efficient the firm s contract induces either excessive retention at all tenure levels or excessive firing at the early stages of the relationship followed by excessive retention after sufficiently long tenure

on the portents of peak oil and other indicators of resource scarcity economists have studied various indicators of resource scarcity but largely ignored the phenomenon of peaking due to its connection to non economic physical theories of resource exhaustion i consider peaking from the economic point of view where economic forces determine the shape of the equilibrium extraction path within that framework i ask whether the timing of peak production reveals anything useful about scarcity i find peaking to be an ambiguous indicator if someone announced the peak would arrive earlier than expected and you believed them you would not know whether the news was good or bad however i also show that the traditional economic indicators of resource scarcity price cost and rent fare no better and argue that previous studies have misconstrued the connection between changes in underlying scarcity and movements in these traditional indicators

moral hazard incentive contracts and risk evidence from procurement deadlines and late penalties are widely used to incentivize effort tighter deadlines and higher penalties induce higher effort but increase the agent s risk we model how these contract terms affect the work rate and time to completion in a procurement setting characterizing the efficient contract design using new micro level data on minnesota highway construction contracts that includes day by day information on work plans hours worked and delays we find evidence of ex post moral hazard contractors adjust their effort level during the course of the contract in response to unanticipated productivity shocks in a way that is consistent with our theoretical predictions we next build an econometric model that endogenizes the completion time as a function of the contract terms and the productivity shocks and simulate how commuter welfare and contractor costs vary across different terms and shocks accounting for the traffic delays caused by construction switching to a more efficient contract design would increase welfare by 22 5 of the contract value while increasing the standard deviation of contractor costs a measure of risk by less than 1 of the contract value

an optimization model for a monopolistic firm serving an environmentally conscious market use of chemical reaction optimization algorithm this work considers a monopolist firm which faces the following twin challenges of serving an environmentally sensitive market the first challenge is the demand s elasticity to emissions and price to entice its emission conscious customers and generate higher demand the firm incrementally invests in cleaner production technologies it also adopts a voluntary limit on its emissions from transportation however such investments and penalty lead to the second challenge of reduced net profit to address above trade off a non linear programming nlp model with a maximization quadratic profit function has been formulated recently developed chemical reaction optimization algorithm with superior computational performance has been adopted to solve the nlp the output of the model provides near optimal monopolistic price best attainable reduction in manufacturing emissions through proportional investment and makes a choice of suitable mode of transportation for each type of product offered by the firm three types of sensitivity analyses were performed by varying contextual parameters customers emission elasticity penalty charged per unit emission and investment coefficient the results underpin the importance of investments in cleaner technologies and the need of financial aids for profit maximizing firms operating in cleaner markets this work provides a decision making tool to determine the near optimal degree of each of the above dimension in multiple business fronts

simple menus of contracts in cost based procurement and regulation in an influential paper jean jacques laffont and jean tirole 1986 formulated a principal agent model of cost based procurement and regulation and showed that the principal can implement the optimal mechanism by offering the agent a menu consisting of a continuum of linear contracts two related problems with applying this theory in practice have been that the economic logic and the underlying mathematics involved in calculating the optimal menu are quite complex and the principal must be able to specify the agent s entire disutility of effort function in order to calculate the optimal menu as a result the model has not been widely used in practice to either calculate actual incentive contracts or even to develop useful qualitative guidance about the nature of the optimal solution and how it is affected by various economic factors the purpose of this paper is to show that dramatically simpler menus which are easy to understand and calculate and which have lower informational requirements can at least in some cases capture a substantial share of the gains achievable by the fully optimal complex menu in particular this paper considers two item menus where one item is a cost reimbursement contract and the other item is a fixed price contract such menus are called fixed price cost reimbursement fpcr menus for the case where the agent s utility is quadratic and the agent s type is distributed uniformly it is shown that the optimal fpcr menu always captures at least three quarters of the gain that the optimal complex menu achieves where the gain is measured relative to the result of using a cost reimbursement contract this paper s research was originally motivated by a policy issue in defense procurement in the united states the department of defense dod purchases almost all major weapons systems from sole source contractors using contracting methods that essentially amount to using cost reimbursement contracts the best way to understand why dod uses costreimbursement contracting methods is that they perform precisely the function identified in laffont and tirole s principal agent model they guarantee in a situation that amounts to a bilateral monopoly that dod and the firm can reach an agreement i e they guarantee that the agent will always produce the good of course the use of cost reimbursement contracting methods

what is the economics of climate change a major review of the economics of climate change under the leadership of professor sir nicholas stern was announced at the end of july 2005 reporting to the united kingdom s chancellor of the exchequer and to the prime minister the stern review on the economics of climate change is due to report in autumn 2006 this article sets out some of the issues the review is considering

blue carbon knowledge gaps critical issues and novel approaches blue carbon the carbon stored and sequestered in mangrove forests seagrass meadows and tidal salt marshes is considered a cost effective means to achieve positive climate change mitigation and adaptation outcomes blue carbon is therefore of considerable interest to the scientific and policy communities and is frequently discussed in relation to carbon markets and climate finance opportunities this paper identifies peer reviewed and gray literature documents that discuss blue carbon in the context of finance and market mechanisms the document set is analyzed both quantitatively and qualitatively and the principal scientific economic regulatory social and management issues that emerge are discussed the study reveals that 1 the blue carbon literature is dominated by technical and policy commentary with a dearth of research into practical social considerations and a stark absence of private sector perspectives 2 there is confusion over the nature and role of important concepts including private and public sector finance and instruments and 3 understanding of the important issues of investment priorities and risk considerations is also limited this paper therefore identifies gaps in the blue carbon literature clarifies critical concepts and issues and proposes novel pathways for blue carbon research and project development

does ecological economics have a future contradiction and reinvention in the age of climate change abstract this paper addresses the role of neoclassical methodologies in ecological economics and the contradictions these methodologies pose to the field s critical founding principles we first consider robert costanza s treatment of nicholas stern s global deal and then survey climate change related articles published in this journal over the past five years this survey reveals how mainstream neoclassical methodologies dominate discourse and do so by marginalizing more critical political economy analyses this situation imperils the field s founding vision of a no growth steady state it also fails to address the related growth dynamics of capitalism without such a critical treatment the field s formal embrace of methodological pluralism actually entails an ideological empiricism that renders ecological economics theoretically incoherent this situation undermines the field s historical promise as an alternative economic paradigm ecological economics now faces a problematic future its survival in a form faithful to its founding vision will require an explicit choice to address its internal contradictions and reinvent itself in ways relevant to our contemporary context without such a choice ecological economics will likely succumb to an implicit acceptance of the hegemony of mainstream economic methodologies and their pro growth imperatives

exploring the determinants and long term performance outcomes of corporate carbon strategies abstract so far research has insufficiently addressed the long term effectiveness of business responses to climate change in delivering actual outcomes the aim of this article is therefore to analyze the determinants of such strategies and their influence on firms financial and carbon performance over time it is argued that corporate carbon strategies have three main objectives carbon governance carbon reduction and carbon competitiveness to assess the complex interactions between these strategic objectives their determinants and outcomes an integrative structural equation model is developed and empirically tested data are sourced from a global sample of 45 leading enterprises from the steel cement and automotive sector including some of the largest ghg emitters in the world in order to account for the long term impacts of strategies the firm level change in financial and carbon performance is calculated by comparing two different points in time namely 2008 and 2013 the results provide empirical evidence for the positive effect of institutional and stakeholder pressure on emission reduction activities proof for a positive impact of carbon pressure on organizational capabilities and corporate competitiveness in the context of climate change cannot be established surprisingly the results also indicate no relationship between carbon reduction activities and long term improvements in carbon performance however such measures are linked to long term financial gains advancements in carbon performance in turn are not found to be associated with economic benefits

robustness and linear contracts abstract we consider a moral hazard problem where the principal is uncertain as to what the agent can and cannot do she knows some actions available to the agent but other unknown actions may also exist the principal demands robustness evaluating possible contracts by their worst case performance over unknown actions the agent might potentially take the model assumes risk neutrality and limited liability and no other functional form assumptions very generally the optimal contract is linear the model thus offers a new explanation for linear contracts in practice it also introduces a flexible modeling approach for moral hazard under nonquantifiable uncertainty jel d81 d82 d86

economic indicators of resource scarcity a critical essay abstract the theoretical arguments of the conceptual and empirical literature on economic indicators of long run resource scarcity are logically flawed if resource allocators were informed of the nature of resource scarcity their behavior and the economic indicators it generates would reflect the scarcity but if they were so informed we could simply ask them if resources were scarce if they are not informed their behavior and economic indicators are as likely to indicate their ignorance as the reality unfortunately there is no way of knowing whether they are informed or not unless we already know whether resources are scarce

on the returns to holding political office is it worth it abstract the paper estimates causal effects of being elected in a local election on monetary returns the claim for causality is made in a research design where the income of some candidate who just barely won a seat is compared to that of some other candidate who was close to winning a seat for the same party but ultimately did not this research design is made possible thanks to a comprehensive detailed data set covering all swedish politicians who have run for office in the period 1991 2006 the analysis establishes that monetary returns from local politics are absent both in the short and long run by relating this null result to effects on the future political career the paper provides suggestive evidence that local politicians are not primarily motivated by money

ecology driven real options an investment framework for incorporating uncertainties in the context of the natural environment the role of uncertainty within an organization s environment features prominently in the business ethics and management literature but how corporate investment decisions should proceed in the face of uncertainties relating to the natural environment is less discussed from the perspective of ecological economics the salience of ecology induced issues challenges management to address new types of uncertainties these pertain to constraints within the natural environment as well as to institutional action aimed at conserving the natural environment we derive six areas of ecology induced uncertainties and propose ecology driven real options as a conceptual approach for systematically incorporating these uncertainties into strategic management we combine our results in an integrative investment framework and illustrate its application with the case of carbon constraints

calibrated incentive contracts this paper studies a dynamic agency problem which includes limited liability moral hazard and adverse selection the paper develops a robust approach to dynamic contracting based on calibrating the incentive properties of simple benchmark contracts that are attractive but infeasible due to limited liability constraints the resulting dynamic contracts are detail free and satisfy robust performance bounds independently of the underlying process for returns which need not be i i d or even ergodic publication abstract

robustness of simple menus of contracts in cost based procurement abstract we consider a model of cost based procurement in which the principal faces knightian uncertainty about the agent s preferences for cost reduction we show that a particularly simple incentive scheme a menu comprising a fixed price contract and a cost reimbursement contract minimizes the maximum expected payment where this maximum is taken over the set of possible agent preferences for some parameters of the problem a range of alternative incentive schemes also satisfy this criterion we show that the simple incentive scheme is not weakly dominated by any of the alternatives there does not exist an alternative mechanism for which the expected payment is no higher for all realizations of the agent s preferences and strictly lower for some realization

the mineral economy how prices and costs can falsely signal decreasing scarcity abstract natural resource prices and costs of extraction have declined simultaneously with increasing quantities of extraction for a long time in a hotelling sense this indicates decreasing scarcity since low cost resources normally would be used first and quantities of extraction normally would decrease over time the main reason for the trend being opposite to hotelling characteristics is usually thought to be due to technological innovation however an alternative reason for decreasing costs and prices and increasing quantities of extraction may be due to georgescu roegen s georgescu roegen nicholas 1972 energy and economic myth in georgescu roegen nicholas ed energy and economic myths institutional and analytical economic essays published 1976 pergamon press new york pp 3 36 concept of bonanza where there is only the appearance of decreasing scarcity norgaard s norgaard r b 1990 economic indicators of resource scarcity a critical essay j environ econ manage 19 1 19 25 mayflower problem can be used to model an alternative neo classical approach to resource extraction and scarcity in this paper a model of resource exploration is developed where the explorer does not know total reserves of the resource base as he searches for and extracts the natural resource the explorer never entirely knows how big the resource base is but does gain information about the potential location of new reserves as discovery proceeds that reduces exploration costs the lower exploration costs can cause the price to fall over time until eventually scarcity of the resource causes the price to rise the true scarcity is only revealed towards the end of exhaustion the model shows that it is possible to have several years of increasing production simultaneous with lower prices and costs until a sudden intense price rise occurs with a huge cut in production when technology is able to cut costs and increase the reserve base the decline in prices and costs and the increase in production can last longer however even with better technology it is still possible for a sharp increase in price as long as demand is growing faster than technological innovation the problem is that the true size of the resource base is never known society does not know if technology is actually overcoming scarcity or not until demand for a resource outstrips supplies it is even possible for a price shock of incredible magnitude to surprise an economy within one or two years after a hundred years of declining prices and increasing production

dynamic security design convergence to continuous time and asset pricing implications an entrepreneur with limited liability needs to finance an infinite horizon investment project an agency problem arises because she can divert operating cash flows before reporting them to the financiers we first study the optimal contract in discrete time this contract can be implemented by cash reserves debt and equity the latter is split between the financiers and the entrepreneur and pays dividends when retained earnings reach a threshold to provide appropriate incentives to the entrepreneur the firm is downsized when it runs short of cash we then study the continuous time limit of the model we prove the convergence of the discrete time value functions and optimal contracts our analysis yields rich implications for the dynamics of security prices stock prices follow a diusion reflected at the dividend barrier and absorbed at zero their volatility as well as the leverage ratio of the firm increase after bad performance stock prices and book tomarket ratios are in a non monotonic relationship a more severe agency problem entails lower price earning ratios and firm liquidity and higher default risk

asymmetric relationship between carbon emission trading market and stock market evidences from china abstract this paper has investigated the asymmetric relationship between carbon emission trading market and stock market in china by using the nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag nardl model based on our investigation on both of the overall and sector level of stock market we have obtained interesting and convincing empirical results that show there are significantly negative long run and short run asymmetric relationships between carbon emission trading market and overall stock market in china specifically we have noticed that while passing the effects from the former to the later the increasing of carbon emission trading price would make greater effects on the stock price than its decreasing also on the sector level carbon emission trading price is significantly related to some energy intense sectors and financial sector stock market furthermore we have surprisingly found out that there are no significant effects passing from stock index to carbon emission trading price in china neither on the overall level nor on the sector level of stock market

concepts and measures of natural resource scarcity with a summary of recent trends a general model of resource scarcity is presented from which previous models can be derived as special cases previous models of scarcity are compared and contrasted refining the concept of scarcity and leading to a resolution of current disputes over the appropriate measure of scarcity an update of the original work done by barnett and morse is summarized leading to reconsideration of their original conclusions it is found that energy and forest products experienced increasing scarcity during the 1970s

estimating oil price value at risk using the historical simulation approach abstract in this paper we propose using value at risk var for oil price risk quantification var provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level and can be used for designing risk management strategies we analyse three var calculation methods the historical simulation standard approach the historical simulation with arma forecasts hsaf approach developed in this paper and the variance covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts the results obtained indicate that hsaf methodology provides a flexible var quantification which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification

climbing the ranks incumbency effects in party list systems abstract incumbents tend to have a solid electoral advantage in candidate centered electoral settings do similar incumbency effects exist in more party centered environments we estimate incumbency effects in an open list proportional representation system exploiting that seats are first allocated across parties and then to candidates within party lists using data from norwegian local elections 2003 2015 we document that a candidate that barely wins a seat in the local council has about a 9 percentage points 43 higher probability of being elected in the next election compared to a candidate that just misses out on a seat on the same party list we find no evidence that voters contribute to this personal incumbency advantage rather it seems as if party elites are instrumental in securing the electoral success of their party affiliates we show that incumbents and non incumbents run again in the subsequent election at about equal rates but that incumbents tend to advance in the party hierarchy and obtain safer ballot positions in future elections which is what ultimately leads to electoral success

robust contracting with additive noise abstract we investigate the idea that linear contracts are reliable because they give the same incentives for effort at every point along the contract we ask whether this reliability leads to a microfoundation for linear contracts when the principal is profit maximizing we consider a principal agent model with risk neutrality and limited liability in which the agent observes the realization of a mean zero shock to output before choosing how much effort to exert we show that such a model can indeed provide a foundation for reliable contracts and illustrate what elements are required in particular we must assume that the principal knows a lower bound but not an upper bound on the shocks

why did the incumbency advantage in u s house elections grow theory a simple rational entry argument suggests that the value of incumbency consists not just of a direct effect reflecting the value of resources such as staff attached to legislative office but also of an indirect effect reflecting the fact that stronger challengers are less likely to contest incumbent held seats the indirect effect is the product of a scare off effect the ability of incumbents to scare off high quality challengers and a quality effect reflecting how much electoral advantage a party accrues when it has an experienced rather than an inexperienced candidate hypothesis the growth of the overall incumbency advantage was driven principally by increases in the quality effect methods we use a simple two equation model estimated by ordinary least squares regression to analyze u s house election data from 1948 to 1990 results most of the increase in the incumbency advantage at least down to 1980 came through increases in the quality effect i e the advantage to the incumbent party of having a low quality challenger this suggests that the task for those wishing to explain the growth in the vote denominated incumbency advantage is to explain why the quality effect grew it also suggests that resource based explanations of the growth in the incumbency advantage cannot provide a full explanation

global environmental risks the need to manage climate risks is not a new it has shaped social institutions for many centuries in medieval england a peasant farmer s land was broken into many widely dispersed parcels economic historians interpret this as a way of hedging climate risk see references in bromley 9 land in different locations would be affected differently by droughts floods and frosts by spreading land holdings over different locations as well as by organizing agricultural cooperatives and buying insurance farmers have managed climate risk for many centuries

responsible innovation and the innovation of responsibility governing sustainable development in a globalized world earth s life support system is facing megaproblems of sustainability one important way of how these problems can be addressed is through innovation this paper argues that responsible innovation that contributes to sustainable development sd consists of three dimensions 1 innovations avoid harming people and the planet 2 innovations do good by offering new products services or technologies that foster sd and 3 global governance schemes are in place that facilitate innovations that avoid harm and do good the paper discusses global governance schemes based on deliberation as a means to foster such responsible innovation these schemes can provide voluntary soft law regulations that complement and extend national and international hard law regulations and facilitate collective innovation that contributes to sd goals the article addresses the facilitative role of governments and international organizations in overcoming problems of deliberation and offers illustrative examples of such governance schemes

evolutionary framework design in formulation of decision support models for production emissions and net profit of firm implications on environmental concerns of supply chains abstract there have been increased investments in cleaner technologies and adoption of a voluntarily limit on transportation emissions by the global firms to handle the environmental concerns of supply chains and to increase demand for finished goods consequences are the reduction in net profit for the firm to address this trade off between the net profit and environmental concerns the formulation and optimization of a compact model are needed development of these models requires a thorough understanding of the nature of the impact of three inputs investment coefficient penalty per unit emission and customer s emission elasticity on production emissions and net profit past studies revealed that a compact model comprising the interactive effect of these inputs on the production emissions and net profit is not yet formulated therefore this study illustrates the development of an evolutionary framework of an advanced multi gene genetic programming in the formulation of functional expressions for the net profit and production emissions based on the three inputs investment coefficient penalty per unit emission and customer s emission elasticity of the monopolist firm the sensitivity and parametric based 2 d analysis determine the relationships and found that the penalty per unit emission is dominant input for reducing emissions and maintaining net profit simultaneously the contribution of this work lies in designing of an evolutionary framework in the development of empirical explicit expressions which can easily be optimized analytically to keep production emissions and net profit balanced

simple cost sharing contracts we extend rogerson s 2003 intriguing analysis of the performance of simple procurement contracts to consider settings where the supplier s innate production cost is not necessarily distributed uniformly although the simple contract that rogerson analyzes performs remarkably well when the smaller cost realizations are relatively likely it can perform poorly when the larger cost realizations are relatively likely we show that in all settings under consideration though a fairly simple pair of contracts one that involves linear cost sharing and one that involves full cost reimbursement can always secure more than 73 of the gain achieved with a fully optimal contract

dynamic managerial compensation a variational approach abstract we study the optimal dynamics of incentives for a manager whose ability to generate cash flows changes stochastically with time and is his private information we show that distortions aka wedges under optimal contracts may either increase or decrease over time in particular when the manager s risk aversion and ability persistence are small distortions decrease on average over time for sufficiently high degrees of risk aversion and ability persistence instead distortions increase on average with tenure our results follow from a novel variational approach that permits us to tackle directly the full program thus bypassing some of the difficulties of the first order approach encountered in the dynamic mechanism design literature

divided government versus incumbency externality effect quasi experimental evidence on multiple voting decisions abstract this paper explores the causal relationship between vote outcomes in different elections we ask 1 does the partisan identity of the mayor influence the voter s decision in subsequent town council elections 2 do voters condition their vote for the mayor on the result of the last council election the analysis mainprod type flply relies on a regression discontinuity design focusing on close election outcomes based on municipal level data for germany we find that the party of the mayor can receive a significant bonus in the next town council election moreover voters punish mayor candidates of parties that performed strongly in earlier council elections throughout the paper we highlight how these findings can be related to an incumbency externality effect and to the theory of divided government

double sided moral hazard and the nature of share contracts contractual arrangements involving revenue profit sharing are often based on fairly simple often linear rules in addition in many contexts these contracts are not finely adjusted to the particular circumstances of individual agents or markets nor do they vary over time to the extent current theories based on optimal contracting suggest they should we develop a simple model of such revenue or profit sharing arrangements based on double sided moral hazard and show that this model can account for many of these stylized facts more specifically the model shows that linear contracts can be optimal and that benefits from customizing terms can in some cases be quite limited if not zero

using cost observation to regulate firms the paper emphasizes the use of accounting data in regulatory or procurement contracts when the supplier 1 has superior information about the cost of the project and 2 invests in cost reduction the main result states that under risk neutrality the supplier announces an expected cost and is given an incentive contract linear in cost overruns this optimal contract moves toward a fixed price contract as the announced cost decreases an investment choice is then introduced and the use of a rate of return regulation is studied

shades of brown and green party effects in proportional election systems small parties play an important role in proportional election systems for exam ple the emergence and electoral success of environmental and anti immigration parties have constituted one of the central changes in the political landscape in europe over the last three decades but we do not know if this has actually had any implications for policy since no methods exist for credibly estimating the eect of legislative represen tation in proportional election systems because party representation is not randomly assigned both observable and unobservable factors in uence policy outcomes as well as party representation using a part of the legislative seat allocation that is as good as random i estimate the causal eect of party representation on immigration policy environmental policy and tax policy i use data swedish municipalities where key poli cies for each policy area are under direct jurisdiction of the municipal councils the results show that party representation has a large eect on the rst two policies but not on the tax policy

a quest for the economics of sustainability and the sustainability of economics abstract this paper briefly reviews key insights from natural resource and environmental economics ecological economics and industrial ecology in an effort to identify the major contributions of these fields to the understanding and promotion of sustainable development each is based on overlapping worldviews methods and tools their synthesis and extension subsumed under the rubric of natural economics is suggested as a new thrust in environmental research offering valuable guides to policy making an early illustration of the application of natural economics in new zealand is presented

economics of technological change and the natural environment how effective are innovations as a remedy for resource scarcity abstract the paper aims to substantiate the importance of endogenous innovations when evaluating the compatibility of natural resource use and economic development it explains that technological change has the potential to compensate for natural resource scarcity diminishing returns to capital poor input substitution and material balance restrictions but is limited by various restrictions like fading returns to innovative investments and rising research costs it also shows how innovative activities are fostered by accurate price signals and research favouring sectoral change the simultaneous effects of increasing technical knowledge decreasing resource inputs and increasing world population largely determine the chances of long run sustainable development consequently future research has to be directed at a more thorough understanding of the mechanisms driving innovations in the presence of natural resource scarcity

eu emission allowances and the stock market evidence from the electricity industry this paper constitutes to our best knowledge the first econometric analysis on stock market effects of the eu emission trading scheme eu ets our results suggest that eu emission allowance eua price developments matter to the stock performance of electricity firms eua price changes and stock returns of the most important european electricity corporations are shown to be positively related this effect does not work asymmetrically so that stock markets do not seem to react differently to eua appreciations in comparison to depreciations the carbon market effect is shown to be both time and country specific it is particularly strong for the period of eua market shock in early 2006 and differs with respect to the countries where the electricity corporations analysed are headquartered stock market reactions to eua volatility could not be shown

carbon risk carbon risk awareness and the cost of debt financing we seek insights into potential benefits for firms adopting strategies to improve business sustainability in a carbon constrained future we investigate whether lenders incorporate a firm s exposure to carbon related risk into lending decisions through the cost of financing and if so importantly whether firms can mitigate the penalty by demonstrating an awareness of their carbon risks we use a sample of 255 firm year observations from eight industries over the period 2009 2013 we measure carbon related risk exposure as the firm s historical carbon emissions and our primary measure of carbon risk awareness is based on the firm s willingness to respond to the carbon disclosure project cdp survey we document a positive association between cost of debt and carbon risk for firms failing to respond to the cdp further this association is economically meaningful with a one standard deviation increase in carbon risk mapping into between a 38 and 62 basis point increase in the cost of debt equally we find that this penalty is effectively negated for firms exhibiting carbon risk awareness our results are robust when we consider alternate measures of carbon awareness disclosure through alternative medium to the cdp and firms annual cash investment in new capital assets using cleaner technology our results highlight not only the importance of carbon awareness as a business strategy for polluting firms but also its importance to lenders exposed to their clients default and reputational risk the debt market appears to incorporate historical carbon emissions and forward looking indicators of carbon performance

optimal contracts under costly state falsification we examine an exchange economy with two agents one risk neutral with a certain endowment and a second risk averse with a random endowment the realization of the endowment is public but can be falsified by the second agent at a cost for a broad class of falsification cost functions the optimal no falsification contract is noncontingent on a left hand interval and strictly increasing with a slope strictly less than one on a right hand interval under a mild further restriction optimal no falsification contracts are in addition piece wise linear optimal contracts may in general require falsifying the state but for a set of the highest endowment realizations there is no falsification we find simple conditions under which the optimal contract is a no falsification contract the model has applications that include financial insurance and employment contracts and tax policy

can environmental sustainability be used to manage energy price risk energy security issues and climate change are two of the most pressing problems facing society and both of these problems are likely to increase energy price variability in the coming years this paper develops and estimates a model of a company s energy price exposure and presents evidence showing that increases in a company s environmental sustainability lowers its energy price exposure this result is robust across two different measures of energy prices these results should be useful to companies seeking new ways of addressing energy price risk as well as governments concerned about the impact that energy price risk can have on economic growth and prosperity

climate change and insurance a critical appraisal several issues relating to insurance and the damage costs of climate change are discussed it is argued that the option of insuring climate change is severely limited because the associated damages are hardly quantifiable and little diversifiable in addition binding contracts are a problem on long time scales and in an international context hedging consumption smoothing over time precautionary investments and liability are not to be presented under the heading of insurance not only because this unnecessarily and confusingly expands the traditional definition of insurance but also because this could create a false sense of security the impact of climate change on the profitability of the commercial insurance sector is not likely to be severe as the insurance companies are capable of shifting changed risks to the insured provided that they are properly and timely informed on the consequences of climate change

the primary effect preference votes and political promotions we analyze how electoral rules and outcomes shape the internal organization of political parties theoretically we make an analogy with primary elections to argue that parties use preference vote tallies to identify popular politicians and promote them to positions of power empirically we document this behavior among parties in sweden s semi open list system and in brazil s open list system to identify a causal impact of preference votes we exploit a regression discontinuity design around the threshold of winning the most preference votes on a party list in our main case sweden these narrow primary winners are at least 50 more likely to become local party leaders than their runners up across individual politicians the primary effect is present only for politicians who hold the first few positions on the list and when the preference vote winner and runner up have similar competence levels across party groups the primary effect is the strongest in unthreatened governing parties

optimal long term financial contracting we develop an agency model of financial contracting we derive long term debt a line of credit and equity as optimal securities capturing the debt coupon and maturity the interest rate and limits on the credit line inside versus outside equity dividend policy and capital structure dynamics the optimal debt equity ratio is history dependent but debt and credit line terms are independent of the amount financed and in some cases the severity of the agency problem in our model the agent can divert cash flows we also consider settings in which the agent undertakes hidden effort or can control cash flow risk

candidate quality the personal vote and the incumbency advantage in congress most political observers agree that incumbent legislators have a considerable advantage over nonincumbents in modern congressional elections yet there is still disagreement over the exact source of this advantage and the explanation for its growth over time to address this debate we utilize a unique set of historical elections data to test for the presence of an incumbency advantage in late nineteenth century house elections 1872 1900 we find a modest direct effect of incumbency and a substantial candidate quality effect moreover the cartel like control of ballot access by nineteenth century political parties created competition in races that the modern market like system simply does not sustain our results suggest that candidate quality is a fundamental piece of the puzzle in understanding the historical development of the incumbency advantage in american politics

ten years of corporate action on climate change what do we have to show for it abstract a significant proportion of the world s greenhouse gas emissions can be attributed directly or indirectly to corporate activities an increasing number of companies have set targets and have adopted initiatives to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions raising the question of what sorts of outcomes can realistically be expected from corporate action on climate change this paper aims to shed some light on this issue through an analysis of the climate change performance of the uk supermarket sector this sector is directly responsible for around 1 of uk greenhouse gas emissions but it has been estimated that indirectly it may be responsible for up to 10 of emissions in the period between 2000 and 2010 the major uk supermarkets transformed their approach to climate change this paper examines the outcomes that resulted from these actions it finds that there have been significant and steady improvements in energy efficiency but that these efficiency gains are often outstripped by the impacts of business growth for most companies short of a radical redesign of their business activities or an expansion of the scope of their energy management initiatives to include their indirect emissions total greenhouse gas emissions will tend to increase over time

regional modelling of oil discovery and production abstract this paper outlines a new method for summarizing the exploratory and production potential of an aggregated geographical region in terms of the past history of exploration and production at the field level the analytical framework is divided into two stages first the discovery analysis describes the physical returns to exploratory drilling marginal expected field size which provide additions to the potential reserve base subsequently the production analysis specifies the economic costs of bringing new fields on stream and also describes the likely production rate from fields of distinct physical characteristics in both the exploratory stage and the production stage the negative influence of resource depletion is modelled explicitly the expected size of successive field discoveries is subject to exponential decay at a rate determined by analysis of past discovery history in the production stage production flow declines exponentially from the peak rate as the field is exhausted finally the paper contains new estimates of development cost functions that are sensitive to both economic parameters and the physical characteristics of fields the cost functions relate total investment expenditure to the size of fields the rate of extraction and the productivity of individual wells the analytical framework is illustrated by application to 37 individual regions around the world

aggregation and linearity in the provision of intertemporal incentives we consider the problem of providing incentives over time for an agent with constant absolute risk aversion the optimal compensation scheme is found to be a linear function of a vector of n accounts which count the number of times that each of the n kinds of observable events occurs the number n is independent of the number of time periods so the accounts may entail substantial aggregation in a continuous time version of the problem the agent controls the drift rate of a vector of accounts that is subject to frequent small random fluctuations the solution is as if the problem were the static one in which the agent controls only the mean of a multivariate normal distribution and the principal is constrained to use a linear compensation rule if the principal can observe only coarser linear aggregates such as revenues costs or profits the optimal compensation scheme is then a linear function of those aggregates the combination of exponential utility normal distributions and linear compensation schemes makes computations and comparative statics easy to do as we illustrate we interpret our linearity results as deriving in part from the richness of the agent s strategy space which makes it possible for the agent to undermine and exploit complicated nonlinear functions of the accounting aggregates

regulatory taxation of fossil fuels theory and policy abstract research on energy taxation is often based on purely theoretical deductions this paper stays closer to the real world using empirical data and interpreting results in a political economic setting of risk and uncertainty economic growth in developing countries will boost energy demand increasing the risk of shortages of oil and natural gas half way through the next century and of coal towards the year 2100 furthermore there is mounting evidence that emissions of co 2 trigger harmful climate changes a timely introduction of regulatory taxes will reduce demand for fossil fuels and accelerate the introduction of sustainable technology the empirical results presented show moreover that such taxes may claim a substantial part of the rent on energy extraction for the energy importing countries it is argued that optimal control and the avoidance of displacement effects require a tax affecting marginal use with exceptions to safeguard competitive positions exceptions may be scaled down as the jurisdiction is enlarged

impacts of market based climate change policies on the us pulp and paper industry abstract much of the policy debates on climate issues have centered on the optimal level and timing of policy interventions that cost effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions we briefly review the range of policy issues in our paper and assess the impact that climate change policies may have on energy use and carbon emissions in the us pulp and paper industry we then present results from time series based analyses of changes in technologies and fuel mix and compare the results with engineering based technology analyses of us pulp and paper production for a copy of the model and software send e mail to mruth bu edu projections based on information for eight paper and paperboard categories are presented for the years 1995 2020 the findings indicate that under a wide range of specifications and policy assumptions carbon emissions from fossil fuel use per ton of product are likely to decline when combined with investment incentives an additional cost effective reduction in carbon emissions per ton of product will be realized however expected increases in output from the industry are likely to be higher than the reductions in energy and carbon intensities the policy implications of these findings are discussed

estimating incumbency advantage without bias in this paper we prove theoretically and demonstrate empirically that all existing measures of incumbency advantage in the congressional elections literature are biased or inconsistent we then provide an unbiased estimator based on a very simple linear regression model we apply this new method to congressional elections since 1900 providing the first evidence of a positive incumbency advantage in the first half of the century incumbency advantage is the most frequently studied factor in the last 15 years of congressional elections research discovery of the increase in incum bency advantage has sparked controversy over its origins historical pattern cur rent magnitude and electoral democratic and policy consequences even the most basic descriptive information about incumbency advantage is flawed be cause every previous measure based on aggregate data in this literature is plagued by selection bias inconsistencies and inefficiencies we prove this result and also propose a new unbiased and statistically efficient measure that is very easy to calculate congressional elections from 1900 to the present fit our theoretical model our empirical reanalyses do not challenge the existing scholarly consen sus that incumbency advantage is much larger than it once was however we do challenge the prevailing belief that incumbency advantage was nonexistent and the evidence that it was negative in house elections during the first half of this century alford and brady 1988 we show instead that the average advantage of incumbency in these elections was about two percentage points in section 1 of this paper we define incumbency advantage and section 2 gives an intuitive sense of the problems identifying it even in ideal electoral sys tems section 3 formally proves that sophomore surge and retirement slump are biased estimates of incumbency advantage and section 4 briefly reveals the flaws

emerging carbon constraints for corporate risk management abstract while discussions about global sustainability challenges abound the financial risks that they incur albeit important have received less attention we suggest that corporate risk assessments should include sustainability related aspects especially with relation to the natural environment and encompass the flux of critical materials within a company s value chain such a comprehensive risk assessment takes into account input as well as output related factors with this paper we focus on the flux of carbon and define carbon constraints that emerge due to the disposition of fossil fuels in the input dimension and due to direct and indirect climate change effects in the output dimension we review the literature regarding the financial consequences of carbon constraints on the macroeconomic sector and company level we conclude that a financial consequences seem to be asymmetrically distributed between and within sectors b the individual risk exposure of companies depends on the intensity of and dependency on carbon based materials and energy and c financial markets have only started to incorporate these aspects in their valuations this paper ends with recommendations on how to incorporate our results in an integrated carbon risk management framework

carbon taxes a drop in the ocean or a drop that erodes the stone the effect of carbon taxes on technological change abstract we develop an economic partial equilibrium model for energy supply and demand with capital and labor as production factors and endogenous technological change through learning by research and learning by doing our model can reproduce the learning curve typical for bottom up energy system models the model also produces an endogenous s curved transition from fossil fuel energy sources to carbon free energy sources over the coming two centuries we use the model to study carbon taxes effects on fossil fuel and carbon free energy use and carbon dioxide emissions it is shown that without induced technological change carbon taxes have a modest effect on emissions while with induced technological change they accelerate the substitution of carbon free energy for fossil fuels substantially

the runner up effect exploiting regression discontinuity designs in brazilian indian and canadian first past the post elections we document that second place candidates are substantially more likely than close third place candidates to run in and win subsequent elections since both candidates lost the election and had similar electoral performance this is the effect of being labeled the runner up selection into candidacy is unlikely to explain the effect on winning subsequent elections and we find no effect of finishing in third place versus fourth place we develop a simple model of strategic coordination by voters that rationalizes the results and provides further predictions that are supported by the data