option pricing with an illiquid underlying asset market abstract we examine how price impact in the underlying asset market affects the replication of a european contingent claim we obtain a generalized black scholes pricing pde and establish the existence and uniqueness of a classical solution to this pde unlike the case with transaction costs we prove that replication with price impact is always cheaper than superreplication compared to the black scholes case a trader generally buys more stock and borrows more shorts and lends more to replicate a call put furthermore price impact implies endogenous stochastic volatility and an out of money option has lower implied volatility than an in the money option this finding has important implications for empirical analysis on volatility smile

quantifying and understanding the economics of large financial movements abstract financial market data offer the exciting possibility of quantifying and understanding the physics of a complex dynamical system and the hope that this line of thinking may give some insights into understanding collective human behavior various measures of stock market activity have been found to exhibit puzzling features that have recently attracted much research attention these features include the power law distributions of return volume number of trades assets under management of trading institutions and other power law relations linking them here we review these empirical results and show that some of these findings can be usefully interpreted within the framework of a reduced form model gabaix x gopikrishnan p plerou v stanley h e 2003 a theory of power law distributions in financial market fluctuations nature 423 267 270 and an economic model gabaix x gopikrishnan p plerou v stanley h e 2006b institutional investors and stock market volatility quarterly journal of economics 121 461 504 the features not only present a challenge to models of market fluctuations but their specific power law nature also suggests new modeling directions which include ideas from statistical physics which proved useful in understanding similar relationships that occur in the physics of critical phenomena

market performance in an open developing economy technical and allocative efficiencies of korean industries this paper first examines determinants of technical efficiency in terms of competition and government regulation including protection in korean industries relying heavily upon the concepts of x efficiency and rentseeking activities allocative efficiency measured as profitability is then considered with technical efficiency as a determinant the outcome of the regression shows that both the sheltering of industries from international competition and the financial market distortions strongly affect technical efficiency and that technical efficiency as well as effective protection rate are important determinants of profitability

global versus local asset pricing a new test of market integration should capital cost calculations be based on a global or local market benchmark the december 2000 redefinition of the morgan stanley capital international msci global equity index was a natural experiment addressing this question it is argued that this event triggered a portfolio shift by index funds large enough to affect the residual asset supplies constituting the global and local market benchmarks of all actively managed capital changes in the market benchmarks imply distinct and predictable changes to global and local stock betas exploring whether global or local beta changes best explain the cross section of event returns reveals that stocks in developed markets are priced globally and not locally jel g11 g14 g15

productivity growth protection and plant entry in a deregulating economy the case of india in this paper we study the comparative performance of indian manufacturing industries during relatively recent periods of domestic regulation and de regulation of plant entry the period of de regulation is accompanied by largely unchanging levels of import competition and higher output growth the growth of labour and total factor productivity tfpg is observed to be higher during the deregulation period we use data on 42 three digit manufacturing industries our sample covers consumer intermediate and capital good industries we study the relationship between levels of effective protection and total factor productivity growth tfpg we found that increasing effective rates of protection was not associated with lower tfpg we test the hypothesis that higher degree of trade protection induces greater entry of plants this hypothesis is statistically supported our econometric estimates found a positive association between net entry and tfpg after controlling for inter industry differences in effective protection asset size of plants and demand growth our results support the proposition that competition positively contributes to tfpg during deregulation

smooth trading with overconfidence and market power we describe a symmetric continuous time model of trading among relatively overconfident oligopolistic informed traders with exponential utility traders agree to disagree about the precisions of their continuous flows of gaussian private information with enough disagreement an equilibrium exists in which prices reveal the average of all traders signals immediately but traders continue to trade gradually towards target inventories the price is a linear function of a trader s inventory the derivative of a trader s inventory and the average other traders valuations prices reflect a keynesian beauty contest faster than equilibrium trading generates flash crashes jel d8 d43 d47 g02 g14

return autocorrelation and institutional investors abstract we propose and test the hypothesis that trading by institutional investors contributes to serial correlation in daily returns our results demonstrate that nyse particles and individual security daily return autocorrelationsare an increasing function of the level of institutional ownership moreover the results are consistent with the hypothesis that institutional trading reflects information and increases the speed of price adjustment the relation between autocorrelation and institutional holdings does not however apparent to be driven by market frictions or rational time varying required rates of return we conclude that institutional investors correlated trading patterns contribute to axial correlation in daily returns

upstairs market for principal and agency trades analysis of adverse information and price effects this paper directly tests the hypothesis that upstairs intermediation lowers adverse selection cost we find upstairs market makers effectively screen out information motivated orders and execute large liquidity motivated orders at a lower cost than the downstairs market upstairs markets do not cannibalize or free ride off the downstairs market in one quarter of the trades the upstairs market offers price improvement over the limit orders available in the consolidated limit order book trades are more likely to be executed upstairs at times when liquidity is lower in the downstairs market

viewpoint canadian competition policy progress and prospects this paper discusses the state of competition policy in particular the economics of competition policy in canada today and considers its prospects going forward it argues that i the importance of competition policy has become accepted widely in canada and indeed throughout much of the world ii competition policy design and enforcement is in general well done in canada iii economists including many canadians have played a central role in the development of an efficient and effective competition policy in canada and elsewhere and iv competition policy in canada is today facing very serious challenges and economists should be concerned la politique de concurrence au canada progres et prospective ce memoire discute de l etat de la politique de concurrence en particulier l economie de la politique de concurrence au canada aujourd hui et examine ce qui l attend on suggere que i l importance de la politique de concurrence est devenue largement acceptee au canada et dans le gros du reste du monde ii le dessein et l application de la politique de concurrence sont en general bien faits au canada iii les economistes et plusieurs canadiens parmi eux ont joue un role central dans le developpement d une politique de concurrence efficace et effective au canada et ailleurs et iv la politique de concurrence au canada fait face a des defis tres serieux ces temps ci et les economistes devraient s en inquieter

the information content of institutional trades on the london stock exchange we construct a unique data set that includes all reported institutional block trades on the london stock exchange and analyze the market reaction to buy and sell trades we find that the type of investors behind the trade and the combination of the trade s size and the trader s resulting level of ownership are the major determinants of the information effects and the asymmetry between price impacts of buy and sell trades in particular large trades undertaken by fund managers the most active investors in our sample have strong information content while for the remaining trades we report limited support for the information and the price impact asymmetry hypotheses these results hold even after accounting for trade complexity and volatility effects in the regressions

why is equity order flow so persistent abstract order flow in equity markets is remarkably persistent in the sense that order signs to buy or sell are positively autocorrelated out to time lags of tens of thousands of orders corresponding to many days two possible explanations are herding corresponding to positive correlation in the behavior of different investors or order splitting corresponding to positive autocorrelation in the behavior of single investors we investigate this using order flow data from the london stock exchange for which we have membership identifiers by formulating models for herding and order splitting as well as models for brokerage choice we are able to overcome the distortion introduced by brokerage on timescales of less than a few hours the persistence of order flow is overwhelmingly due to splitting rather than herding we also study the properties of brokerage order flow and show that it is remarkably consistent both cross sectionally and longitudinally

an empirical test of the infant industry argument the basic infant industry argument maintains that the cost of a new activity is initially high it does not pay any individual to enter an infant industry at free trade prices if developed the industry will permit a reasonable return on initial losses and a temporary period of protection is required this paper has attempted two things to develop an empirical test for the validity of the infant industry argument and to use that test on turkish data the test is simple and straightforward input per unit of output must fall more rapidly in more protected industries if there is to be any rationale for infant industry protection in the turkish case there was no such tendency over the period covered the fact that protected turkish industries did not experience rapid increases in output per unit of input is sufficient to prove that protection was not warranted it does not however prove that there were no infant industries the trade regime might have provided the wrong incentives and under an alternative structure output per unit of input might have grown more rapidly in some or possibly all turkish industries in conclusion protection did not elicit the sort of growth in output per unit on which infant industry proponents base their claim for protection

smart fund managers stupid money we develop a model of mutual fund manager investment decisions near the end of quarters we show that when investors reward better performing funds with higher cash flows near quarter ends a mutual fund manager has an incentive to distort new invest ment toward stocks in which his fund holds a large existing position the short term price impact of these trades increase the fund s reported returns higher returns are rewarded by greater subsequent fund inflows which in turn allow for more investment distortion the next quarter because the price impact of trades is short term each subsequent quar ter begins with a larger return deficit eventually the deficit cannot be overcome thus our model leads to the empirically observed short run persistence and long run rever sal in fund performance in doing so our model provides a consistent explanation of many other seemingly contradictory empirical features of mutual fund performance jel classification d82 g2 g14

elicitation of honest preferences for the assignment of individuals to positions the problem of eliciting honest preferences from individuals who must be assigned to a set of positions is considered individuals know that they will be charged for the positions to which they are assigned a set of prices that provide no incentive for the individual to misrepresent his preferences is suggested it is shown that these prices constitute an element of the optimal solution to the dual of a linear programming assignment problem both the optimal allocation and the prices to be charged can be derived by solving two linear programming problems once preferences have been elicited the procedure can usefully be viewed as a simulation of a competitive market under conditions where such a market cannot be expected to function well it results in an efficient allocation where all resources are valued at their opportunity costs and consumer surplus is maximized its outcome thus has the desirable properties of competitive market equilibria

the macro impacts of korea s heavy industry drive re evaluated the korean heavy industry hci drive has been criticised for the misallocation of capital and for negative spillover effects on growth inflation the current account and debt however such criticism places too much blame on hci for the late 1970s economic deterioration and gives hci insufficient credit for the subsequent economic rebound korean hci was a catch up exercise which attracted cheap foreign capital to accelerate structural change nevertheless the mid 1970s decision to pursue hci as a big push was flawed since it did result in project bunching that strained implementation capacity despite the safeguards which korea built into its hci strategy

market impact costs of institutional equity trades this article analyzes market impact costs of equity trading by one of the world s largest pension funds we find that on average these costs are small in terms of market disruption but substantial in terms of costs for the pension fund average market impact costs equal 20 basis points for buys and 30 basis points for sells furthermore we show that momentum and volatility have considerable influence on market impact costs other important determinants of these costs are trade type agency single or principal trade size trading strategy trading venue and industry sector additionally we find that the timing of trades plays a substantial role in explaining trading costs moreover we also establish a cost risk trade off the longer it takes to execute a trade the lower the expected market impact costs but the higher the volatility of these costs

economic freedom and the stability of stock prices a cross country analysis abstract this paper investigates the link between economic freedom and the price stability of individual securities in a unique setting using a sample of 327 american depositary receipts adrs we find an inverse relation between the economic freedom of a adrs home country and the price volatility of the adr this negative correlation is driven primarily by certain components of economic freedom such as property right protection the soundness of the money and the level of free trade in the home country further we find evidence that less regulation and less government control of markets in the home country leads to more stable adr prices

clusters entrepreneurial ecosystem co creation and appropriability a conceptual framework extant literature on clusters underplays the role of entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial management in creating and co creating organizations markets and supporting ecosystems we employ transaction costs resource knowledge capabilities and power control based theories to provide a comparative static governance based perspective on clusters we embed this into a more general co evolutionary entrepreneurial theory of the emergence evolution and co evolution of markets ecosystems and clusters we suggest that clusters can involve advantages that help engender superior appropriation of co created value as compared to alternatives entrepreneurial managers faced with a degree of choice will help co create clusters and be part of them for as long as they can appropriate more value in this way than through alternatives

derivative use fund flows and investment manager performance abstract prior literature which examines the use of derivatives by investment managers does not discern between different types of derivative trading strategies this study is the first to examine and gather data on a particular type of derivative trading strategy undertaken by investment managers we examine the extent to which equity fund managers use index futures to manage fund flows and the effect this has on their alpha and market timing measures of performance our results show that funds that do not use derivatives exhibit lower returns and negative market timing skills when they experience fund flow the performance of funds that use derivatives however is independent of investor s liquidity demands in fact the unconditional performance of the average user fund is statistically equivalent to the performance of the average non user fund conditional on zero fund flow our results provide evidence that derivatives can be beneficial for mutual fund holders under certain conditions

large block transactions the speed of response and temporary and permanent stock price effects abstract the paper investigates how quickly prices attain new equilibrium levels after large block transactions and measures the associated temporary and permanent price effects we find that prices adjust within at most three trades with most of the adjustment occurring in the first trade the temporary price effect for seller initiated transactions is related to block size but the temporary price effect observed for buyer initiated transactions is no larger than that observed in 100 share trades most of the price effect associated with block trades is permanent and is related to block size regardless of the initiating party

dynamic analysis on market structure of china s coal industry abstract according to industrial organization theory market structure is a crucial factor to market performance based on the var model and the data from 1994 to 2014 we revealed the dynamic response route of the market structure to these factors and the change process of contribution rate of these factors to the market structure it shows that market structure is inertial adjustment technology advance and industry policy have continuous effects on improvement of market concentration ratio market size and production scale have sustained negative effects on market concentration ratio fixed capital has barrier effect which is mainly the entry barrier effect at the beginning and then the exit barrier effect continues to play a leading role therefore the government has no need to introduce special policies to encourage merger or expansion on the capacity as enterprises would do it spontaneously it is necessary to make market access system stricter to improve exit compensation mechanism and to promote technological innovation all these policies need dynamic adjustment based on the stages of economic cycle

the behavior of stock prices around institutional trades all trades executed by 37 large investment management firms from july 1986 to december 1988 are used to study the price impact and execution cost of the entire sequence package of trades that we interpret as an order we find that market impact and trading cost are related to firm capitalization relative package size and most importantly to the identity of the management firm behind the trade money managers with high demands for immediacy tend to be associated with larger market impact financial economists have long studied the equity trading process and its impact on stock prices much prior empirical research isolates individual trades and analyzes the behavior of the stock price around each trade see for example kraus and stoll 1972a holthausen leftwich and mayers 1987 1990 keim and madhavan 1991 petersen and umlauf 1991 hausman lo and mackinlay 1992 and chan and lakonishok 1993 evaluating the behavior of stock prices around trades provides a means of discriminating among various hypotheses as to the elasticity of the demand for stocks yields an estimate of the cost of executing trades and a measure of the liquidity of a market and permits tests of different models of the determination of quotes and transaction prices for many institutional investors however even a moderately sized position in a stock may represent a large fraction of the stock s trading volume accordingly an investment manager s order is often broken up into several trades it is often misleading therefore to consider an individual trade as the basic unit of analysis in the study of trading activity and its effects on prices this paper uses the record of trades executed by 37 large investment manage

industrial restructuring in korea abstract the paper explores some of the industrial restructuring cconcerns facing the korean economy at a time when direct government intervention is rapidly being replaced by functional incentives restructuring issues are descending forcefully on korea as the economy moves through a rapid industrial transition from labor intensive to capital and skill intensive exports problems affecting sunset industries are complicated by stresses on the financial sector the pervasive role of conglomerates in the economy and the worldwide impediments to free trade all these factors complicate strictly market solutions following a discussion of some conceptual and historical aspects the paper identifies key problem areas affecting industrial policy decisions surveys lessons from industrialized country experiences and provides an agenda for future policy reform

identifying the interaction between stock market returns and trading flows of investor types looking into the day using daily data abstract this paper introduces a new method for identifying the simultaneity between returns and trading flows the proposed method enables us to identify the intraday interaction using daily data and provides measures of the information content of trading flows and their instantaneous response to public information and information revealed by market prices applying this method to daily data on investor types from the korea stock exchange we find significant intraday bi directional interaction between flows and returns and their latent common drivers altering some of the results of the previous literature based on cholesky assumptions thus we obtain a number of new insights concerning the behavior of investor types

the need for industrial policy in ldc s a re statement of the infant industry argument this paper presents a learning by doing model of a small open economy learning acquired in production of an industry x enhances productivity of industries x and y by introducing dynamic production complementarities across industries through the learning curve this approach presents an important generalization of p k bardhan s 1971 model copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the maturation and growth of infant industries the case of korea abstract this paper first shows that contrary to evidence from most developing countries korean infant industries under protection have tended to mature it also shows that output grows faster in infant industries than in mature ones the paper then discusses probable factors that have made the maturation and growth of infant industries possible in korea overall the empirical evidence and its interpretation support the revisionist rather than neoclassical or market friendly view in the recent debate on east asian industrialization

determinants of portfolio performance in order to delineate investment responsibility and measure performance contribution pension plan sponsors and investment managers need a clear and relevant method of attributing returns to those

liquidity investment style and the relation between fund size and fund performance using stock transactions data along with detailed stockholdings for a comprehensive sample of u s actively managed equity mutual funds from 1993 to 2002 this paper empirically examines the effect of liquidity and investment style on the relation between fund size and fund performance consistent with chen hong huang and kubik 2004 i find a significant inverse relation between fund size and fund performance further this inverse relation is stronger among funds that hold less liquid portfolios the inverse relation between fund size and fund performance is also more pronounced among growth and high turnover funds that tend to have high demands for immediacy overall this paper s findings suggest that liquidity is an important reason why fund size erodes performance

productivity change and dynamic comparative advantage this paper proposes a simple decomposition of the widely used drc measure of international competitiveness into three distinct elements 1 changes in international prices 2 changes in production techniques and 3 total factor productivity change the decomposition provides a clear analytical link between two largely separate methodologies for assessing economic performance cost benefit indicators based on the world price rule and total factor productivity analysis the methodology is applied to evaluate changes in measured comparative advantage of industries in thailand for the period 1963 76 the results broadly indicate that changes in price competitiveness and in total factor productivity are the major sources of changes in drc ratios for thai industries

opportunity cost trade policies and the efficiency of firms abstract this paper analyzes the effects of trade policies on the technological effort of a firm entering a new market in the context of a developing country we depart from previous literature by bringing into focus the opportunity cost of technological effort a firm that spends time in acquiring a more efficient technology delays the commercialization of its products thus incurring an opportunity cost in terms of profits forgone protection increases both the opportunity cost and the benefits from technological effort in the case of linear demand function and constant returns to scale technology protection is shown to unambiguously reduce the protected firm s technological effort export subsidy is also shown to reduce technological effort when the potential level of exports under free trade is high

trading cost the critical link between investment information and results 1983 trading cost the critical link between investment information and results financial analysts journal vol 39 no 3 pp 39 44

a direct test of methods for inferring trade direction from intra day data this study directly tests the ability of several competing methods to identify market buy and sell orders using intra day quote and trade prices and identifies factors that affect the accuracy of the methods lee and ready s 1991 algorithm performs about the same as the tick test but the performance of both methods is worse than expected the results show that the use of either algorithm to classify trades can lead to significantly biased estimates of effective spreads and signed volume but the tick test provides better estimates of effective spreads and signed volume than lee and ready s method i introduction the use of intra day prices in empirical studies of securities markets is increasingly common and studies frequently require trades be identified as buyer or seller initiated unfortunately most data sets do not identify trade direction methods have however been proposed that allow trade direction to be inferred from adjacent prices and quotes the accuracy of these methods and the implica tions for microstructure research are still unresolved issues in large part because trade direction is unobservable in most financial data sets this study directly tests the ability of several competing methods to iden tify market buy and sell orders using intra day quote and trade prices the tests are conducted using the torq database a unique data set the new york stock exchange makes available to researchers that contains information on trades quotes and orders using the tick tests and lee and ready s lr hereafter 1991 method to classify trades as buys or sells and comparing the results to the direction of the actual orders i directly test the accuracy of the classification algorithms the tests also identify the factors that affect the accuracy of the clas sification methods additional tests demonstrate that using these algorithms can lead to biased inferences in two of their most common applications estimating effective spreads and signed volume trading test results also show that the tick

the costs and determinants of order aggressiveness abstract this paper examines the costs and determinants of order aggressiveness aggressive orders have larger price impacts but smaller opportunity costs than passive orders price impacts are amplified by large orders small firms and volatile stock prices to minimize the implementation shortfall the optimal strategy is to enter buy sell orders at the bid ask aggressive buy sell orders tend to follow other aggressive buy sell orders and occur when bid ask spreads are narrow and depth on the same opposite side of the limit book is large small aggressive buys are more likely than sells to be motivated by information

optimal liquidation strategies and their implications abstract this paper studies optimal liquidation when the selling price depends on the rate of liquidation transaction time volume and the asset s intrinsic value a generic closed form solution for maximizing the discounted liquidation proceeds is derived to obtain financial insights three parametric specifications that proxy for increasingly realistic market conditions are examined in our framework maximizing liquidation proceeds and minimizing liquidity costs are equivalent the optimal strategies imply more rapid liquidations in less liquid markets we also show that volatility is stochastic when market liquidity is unpredictable

institutional investors and stock market volatility statement of responsibility on t p reads xavier gabaix parameswaran gopikrishnan vasiliki plerou h eugene stanley

trading and liquidity on the tokyo stock exchange a bird s eye view the trading mechanism for equities on the tokyo stock exchange tse stands in sharp contrast to the primary mechanisms used to trade stocks in the united states in the united states exchange designated specialists have affirmative obligations to provide continuous liquidity to the market specialists offer simultaneous and tight quotes to both buy and sell and supply sufficient liquidity to limit the magnitude of price changes between consecutive transactions in contradistinction the tse has no exchange designated liquidity suppliers instead liquidity is provided through a public limit order book and liquidity is organized through restrictions on maximum price changes between trades that serve to slow down trading in this article we examine the efficacy of the tse s trading mechanisms at providing liquidity our analysis is based on a complete record of transactions and best bid and best offer quotes for most stocks in the first section of the tse over a period of 26 months we study the size of the bid ask spread and its cross sectional and intertemporal stability intertemporal patterns in returns volatility volume trade size and the frequency of trades and market depth based on the response of quotes to trades and the frequency of trading halts and warning quotes the trading mechanism for equities on the tokyo stock exchange tse stands in sharp contrast to the primary mechanisms used to trade stocks in the united states in the united states exchange designated specialists have affirmative obligations to provide continuous liquidity in the market and to maintain a private limit order book with the public s limit orders on the tse exchange designated intermediaries saitori log limit orders and match them to incoming market orders but provide no market making services in the united states specialists offer simultaneous and tight quotes to both buy and sell on the tse public limit orders constitute the available bids and offers in the united states specialists supply sufficient liquidity to limit the magnitude of price changes between consecutive transactions 1 on the tse the market mechanism places limits on the magnitude of consecutive price

policy designs in a dynamic model of infant industry protection abstract this paper takes the neoclassical infant industry model allows agents to respond to future expectations and reveals previously unexplained relationships between protection and outcome policy which projects to protect the industry until international competitiveness may not necessarily succeed consistent to the mixed empirical evaluations to guarantee success protection has to last longer however for success to be an equilibrium protection can last shorter decline after take off is also an equilibrium when adjustment speed is bounded increasing the protection rate is not isomorphic to decreasing its duration in policy design adjustment speed critical industry scale and policy duration are all relevant

bayesian learning in an infant industry model abstract most analyses of the infant industry argument assume that production early on benefits subsequent production in deterministic fashion this paper presents an alternative framework for evaluating the infant industry argument that focuses on imperfect information as a barrier to entry initial entrants provide information of social value by reducing uncertainty for potential followers about the suitability of local conditions in contrast to earlier work i show that factors that increase the informational barrier to entry may lower the optimal subsidy to the infant industry and that the standard test of the success of infant industry policy is not always valid 1997 elsevier science b v

employment and earnings effects of awarding training vouchers in germany participation in intensive training programs for the unemployed in germany is allocated by awarding training vouchers using rich administrative data for all vouchers and actual program participation the authors provide first estimates of the short run and long run employment and earnings effects of receiving a training voucher award based on a selection on observables assumption the results imply that after the award voucher recipients experience long periods of lower labor market success compared to had they not received training vouchers small positive employment effects and no gains in earnings were observed four to seven years after the receipt of the voucher award in addition the findings suggest stronger positive effects both for all low skilled individuals who were awarded and redeemed a voucher and for low skilled and medium skilled individuals who chose to take degree courses than for higher skilled recipients

dynamic trading policies with price impact abstract in this paper we analyze the optimal policy for a risk averse agent who wants to sell a large block of shares of a risky security in the presence of price impact and transactions costs our framework reduces to the standard merton portfolio problem in the absence of any market frictions optimal liquidation results in revenue distributions which are substantially different from those generated by a naive strategy the main tradeoff involves choosing between revenue distributions which have high means versus those which have low variances furthermore our results suggest that the effective liquidity of a security depends on its return distribution and on the characteristics of the agent carrying out the trade as well as on the price impact function

price and volume effects of changes in msci indices nature and causes abstract using changes in the msci standard country indices for 29 countries between 1998 and 2001 we document that stock returns and volumes exhibit index effects in international markets similar to those detected by the studies of us stocks the stocks added to the indices experience a sharp rise in prices after the announcement and a further rise during the period preceding the actual change though part of the gain is lost after the actual change date the stocks that are deleted from the indices on the other hand witness a steady and marked decline in their prices trading volumes increase significantly and remain at high levels after the change date for the added stocks there are also considerable cross country variations in these effects tests using data on various measures reflecting the different hypotheses fail to turn up any evidence in support of information effects our evidence appears to be more supportive of the downward sloping demand curve hypothesis there is some evidence of price pressure and mild evidence of liquidity effect particularly in japan and uk

stealth trading which traders trades move stock prices usingaudit trail data for a sample of nyse firms we show that medium size trades are associated with a disproportionately large cumulative stock price change relative to their proportion of all trades and volume this result is consistent with the predictions of barclay and warner s 1993 stealth tradinghypothesis we find that the source of this disproportionately large cumulative price impact of medium size trades is trades initiated by institutions this result is robust to various sensitivity checks our findings appear to confirm street lore that institutions are informed traders 2001 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

episodic liquidity crises cooperative and predatory trading we describe how episodic illiquidity arises from a breakdown in cooperation between market participants we first solve a one period trading game in continuous time using an asset pricing equation that accounts for the price impact of trading then in a multi period framework we describe an equilibrium in which traders cooperate most of the time through repeated interaction providing apparent liquidity to one another cooperation breaks down when the stakes are high leading to predatory trading and episodic illiquidity equilibrium strategies that involve cooperation across markets lead to less frequent episodic illiquidity but cause contagion when cooperation breaks down why is illiquidity rare and episodic pastor stambaugh 2003 detect only 14 aggregate low liquidity months over the time period 1962 to 1999 despite being of significant magnitude most of the episodes were short lived and were followed by long periods of liquidity 1 the origin of this empirical observation still remains a puzzle in this paper we attempt to shed light on this puzzle by developing a theoretical model in which a breakdown in cooperation between traders in the market manifests itself in predatory trading this mechanism leads to sudden and short lived illiquidity we develop a dynamic model of trading based on liquidity needs during each period a liquidity event may occur in which a trader is required to liquidate a large block of an asset in a relatively short time period this need for liquidity is observed by a tight oligopoly whose members may choose to predate or cooperate predation involves racing and fading the distressed trader to the market

can money flows predict stock returns money flow is defined as the difference between uptick and downtick dollar trading volume despite little published research regarding its usefulness the measure has become an increasingly popular technical indicator our analysis demonstrates that money flows are highly correlated with same period returns we also found strong evidence of money flow momentum in that lagged money flows can be used to predict future money flows most important is our finding that money flows appear to predict cross sectional variation in future returns their predictive ability is sensitive however to the method of money flow measurement e g the exclusion or inclusion of block trades and the forecast horizon

the upstairs market for large block transactions analysis and measurement of price effects this article develops a model of the upstairs market where order size beliefs and prices are determined endogenously we test the model s predictions using unique data for 5 625 equity trades during the period 1985 to 1992 that are known to be upstairs transactions and are identified as either buyer or seller initiated we find that price movements prior to the trade date are significantly positively related to trade size consistent with information leakage as the block is shopped upstairs further the temporary price impact or liquidity effect is a concave function of order size which may result from upstairs intermediation

evidence of the empirical relevance of the infant industry argument for the protection of brazilian ethanol production abstract the infant industry argument for protection of import competing industries has a long and almost entirely theoretical history in the literature in this paper the empirical evidence of infant industry dynamics in the brazilian ethanol industry is investigated in brazil ethanol has developed into a primary automotive fuel over the past 18 years this import substitute is attractive because it allows decreased dependence on international oil supplies while at the same time it addresses environmental concerns because it is a clean burning renewable fuel while ethanol was initially a high cost alternative to imported oil observed cost reductions have led to an increased belief that this industry may in fact warrant the subsidization it has received because of infant industry reasons the results of this study suggest that there is no empirical evidence of economies of scale and very little technical change there appears to be no empirical validity to the infant industry argument for subsidization of the brazilian ethanol industry

return predictability following large price changes and information releases abstract we examine return behavior following large price change events unconditional post event abnormal returns are found to be unimportant as we condition on other criteria related to the quality of information like volume and public announcements the abnormal returns become large the type of news provides further refinement if the news relates to earnings or analyst recommendations then the 20 day abnormal returns become much larger ranging from 3 to 4 for positive events and about 2 25 for negative events finally an out of sample trading strategy confirms investor under reaction and generates significant abnormal annualized returns of the order of 12 18

strategic trading in a dynamic noisy market this paper studies a dynamic model of a nancial market with a strategic trader in each period the strategic trader receives a privately observed endowment in the stock he trades with competitive market makers to share risk noise traders are present in the market after receiving a stock endowment the strategic trader is shown to reduce his risk exposure either by selling at a decreasing rate over time or by selling and then buying back some of the shares sold when the time between trades is small the strategic trader reveals the information regarding his endowment very quickly

volume for winners and losers taxation and other motives for stock trading capital gains taxes create incentives to trade our major finding is that turnover is higher for winners stocks the prices of which have increased than for losers which is not consistent with the tax prediction however the turnover in december and january is evidence of tax motivated trading there is a relatively high turnover for losers in december and for winners in january we conclude that taxes influence turnover but other motives for trading are more important we were unable to find evidence that changing the length of the holding period required to qualify for long term capital gains treatment affected turnover investors responding to the tax incentives in the capital gains laws should produce predictable patterns in the volume of trading in a stock but not necessarily in its price this study uses past price patterns as a proxy to measure the incentives to sell or avoid selling a stock and observes trading volumes to estimate the extent to which investors respond to these incentives past price patterns may influence trading volumes for other non tax related reasons as well these are also considered we find that past prices influence current incentives to trade through both tax and non tax motives winners tend to have higher abnormal volumes than losers this would be expected if non tax related motives were predominant however the influence of tax related motives on trading volume is shown by seasonal variations in the relationship between past price changes and turnover as predicted by tax induced trading theories the volume of losers is higher than normal in december and the volume of winners is higher than normal in january we found no evidence that trading volume was affected by changes in the length of the holding period required to qualify for long term capital gains investors reactions to capital gains taxes are important for several reasons first a comprehensive understanding of investor behavior would include both price and volume understanding the relationship between taxes and volume is a fruitful and convenient method of contributing to this subject the resource allocation consequences of capital gains taxes are controversial in part because

russia s commercial policy 2008 11 modernization crisis and the wto accession this paper examines the commercial policy of russia during 2008 11 a time of global financial crisis which coincided with an announced russian modernization programme in 2008 russia introduced a development strategy to limit its dependence on natural resources however the government relied heavily on this income for the planned modernization programme the falling price of oil in 2008 9 led to a tightened government budget constraint this situation induced russia towards wider use of more traditional instruments of trade policy such as tariff policy as well as an import substitution strategy the creation of the customs union and a pause in the wto accession process russia has been found by the global trade alert gta initiative to be one of the main users of protectionist policies since november 2008 with the oil price recovery from september 2010 russia had been back in the wto accession process on revised terms and conditions the wto ministerial conference in geneva approved the accession package of the russian federation on 16 december 2011 copyright 2012 oxford university press

an empirical test of the infant industry argument comment anne krueger and baran tuncer 1982 present some interesting results on rates of effective protection and of productivity growth for various sectors of the turkish economy from these measures the authors develop an empirical test for the validity of the infant industry argument p 1149 being perhaps the first attempt to test directly the commonly cited infant industry grounds for protection the paper by krueger and tuncer is especially valuable clearly the approach is readily applicable in other contexts for further testing but before so doing it seems worth pursuing certain implications of that test a little more precisely the test proposed by krueger tuncer for the validity of the infant industry argument is founded on the premise that a necessary but not sufficient condition is that costs in temporarily assisted or protected industries should have fallen over time more rapidly than costs in nonprotected or less protected industries p 1144 the test is simple and straightforward input per unit of output must fall more rapidly in more protected industries if there is to be any rationale for infant industry protection in the turkish case there was no such tendency over the period covered p 1149 but is this a sufficient test of the necessary conditions the case for infant industry assistance is derived either from an externality associated with learning by others doing or learningby own doing combined with a capital market failure for the instance of within industry learning this is commonly modelled by inserting the integral of past output as an argument in the production function which may be written for industry i at time t

do demand curves for currencies slope down evidence from the msci global index change traditional portfolio balance theory derives a downward sloping currency demand function from limited international asset substitutability historically this theory enjoyed little empirical support we provide direct evidence by examining the exchange rate effect of a major redefinition of the msci international equity index in 2001 and 2002 the index changes implied large changes in the representation of different countries in the msci world index and therefore produced strong exogenous equity flows by index funds our event study shows a strong announcement effect in which countries with a decreasing equity representation vis a vis the u s depreciated against the dollar

the price dynamics of common trading strategies a deterministic trading strategy can be regarded as a signal processing element that uses external information and past prices as inputs and incorporates them into future prices this paper uses a market maker based method of price formation to study the price dynamics induced by several commonly used financial trading strategies showing how they amplify noise induce structure in prices and cause phenomena such as excess and clustered volatility

transparency and liquidity a study of block trades on the london stock exchange under different publication rules this article examines whether reducing a market s transparency by delaying the publication of prices for block trades has any impact on liquidity the analysis uses a sample of 5987 blocks from the london stock exchange that cover three different publication regimes immediate 1987 88 90 minutes 1991 92 and 24 hours 1989 90 delaying publication does not affect the time taken by prices to reach a new level which is rapid under all regimes spreads differ across years but their size relates more closely to market volatility than to speed of publication there is therefore no gain in liquidity from delayed publication

the cost of institutional equity trades presented are an overview of the findings from the recent literature on the cost of u s equity trades for institutional investors and new evidence on trading costs from a large sample of institutional trades the findings discussed have important implications for policymakers and investors implicit trading costs are economically significant equity trading costs vary considerably and vary systematically with trade difficulty and order placement strategy and whether a trade price represents best execution depends on detailed data for the trade s entire order submission process especially information on pretrade decision variables such as the trading horizon

volume autocorrelation information and investor trading this study investigates whether the widely documented daily correlated trading volume of stocks is driven by individual investor trading institutional trading or both we find that at least 95 of nyse and amex stocks exhibit statistically significant positive serial correlation volume autocorrelation decreases with the level of institutional ownership of a stock we also show that the rate of arrivals of new information to the market contributes to the clustering of trades when there is high information flow to the market institutional trading generates a more pronounced effect on volume autocorrelation than individual investor trading our results are broadly consistent with the predictions of trading volume patterns suggested by most theoretical models of stock trading and by empirical research on investor trading

what factors increase the risk of incurring high market impact costs this article applies quantile regression to assess the factors that influence the risk of incurring high trading costs using data on the equity trades of the world s second largest pension fund in the first quarter of 2002 we show that trade timing momentum volatility and the type of broker intermediation are the major determinants of the risk of incurring high trading costs such risk is increased substantially by either high or low momentum and by strong volatility moreover agency trades are substantially more risky in terms of trading costs than similar principal trades finally we show that the quantile regression model succeeds well in forecasting future trading costs

entry and structures of interest groups in assignment games abstract this paper presents several comparative statics results concerning the entry problem in assignment games the results compare sets of equilibria and hence do not require the usual assumption of a unique equilibrium by the device of a competing group generator the set of players is decomposed into three interest groups for which three forms of entry effects are identified for the group with the strongest entry effect it is found that generically 1 the benefit functions form a complete ordering and 2 the turnover effect dominates the unemployment effect the implications of these results to bargaining immigrations and matching problems are discussed

on the strategic behavior of large investors a mean variance portfolio approach abstract one key assumption of markowitz s model is that all traders act as price takers in this paper we extend this mean variance approach in a setting where large investors can move prices instead of having an individual optimization problem we find the investors nash equilibrium and redefine the efficient frontier in this new framework we also develop a simplified application of the general model with two assets and two investors to shed light on the potential strategic behavior of large and atomic investors our findings validate the claim that large investors enhance their portfolio performance in relation to perfect market conditions besides we show under which conditions atomic investors can benefit in relation to the standard setting even if they have not total influence on their eventual performance the two investors two assets setting allows us to quantify performance and do sensitivity analysis regarding investors market power risk tolerance and price elasticity of demand finally for a group of well known etfs we empirically show how price variations change depending on the volume traded we also explain how to set up and use our model with real market data

changes in institutional ownership and stock returns assessment and methodology although the relation between quarterly changes in institutional investor ownership and contemporaneous stock returns is well documented the source of the relation remains unclear because institutional ownership data are unavailable at higher frequencies in this study we develop a method to generate estimates of higher frequency covariances when one variable is observed at lower frequencies e g quarterly changes in institutional ownership and monthly stock returns our method provides evidence that institutional trading has both temporary and permanent price effects and that the latter is associated with information effects

institutional trades and intraday stock price behavior abstract this paper examines the price effect of institutional stock trading using a unique data set that reports the transactions large and small of 37 large institutional money management firms the direction of each trade and the identity of the management firm behind each trade are known although institutional trades are associated with some price pressure we find that the average effect is small there is also a marked asymmetry between the price impact of buys versus sells we relate our findings to various hypotheses on the elasticity of demand for stocks the cost of executing transactions and the determinants of market impact although market capitalization and relative trade size influence the market impact of a trade the dominant influence is the identity of the money manager behind the trade

outstanding female economists in the analysis and practice of development economics abstract this article examines the contributions of five eminent economists all women to the analysis and practice of development economics irma adelman frances stewart and nancy birdsall are leading advocates of alternative development strategies that focus on poverty alleviation and investment in human capital anne krueger and alice amsden stand at the forefront of two opposing camps in a lively and long lasting debate on the appropriate role of government in trade and industrialization we use the storied careers of these economists as a vehicle to convey the big picture of how development economics has evolved and which topics have proved durable