the growth and distributional consequences of international trade in natural resources and capital goods a neo austrian analysis abstract the problem explored is the role of natural resources in economic growth a neo austrian model is constructed which can represent either a single autarchic country or a pair of trading countries one of which can export natural resources and the other can export manufactured capital it is shown that under autarchy the price of the natural resource has no effect on economic growth while under conditions of trade it has a significant influence falling natural resource prices slow the growth in the resource exporting country and stimulate it in the capital exporting country some policy implications of this finding are explored

the long term effects of forcible assimilation policy the case of indian boarding schools for decades in north america and australia indigenous children were forcibly removed from their homes and placed in boarding schools these schools had the stated goal of cultural assimilation and are perceived as educational failures i offer the first causal evidence on the long run effects of these schools i identify these effects using the interaction of changes in canadian national policy and regional variation in the power of the catholic church i find that the average boarding school had substantial effects on both cultural and economic assimilation however i find suggestive evidence this is not true for highly abusive schools

separation of powers and political accountability political constitutions are incomplete contracts and therefore leave room for abuse of power in democracies elections are the primary mechanism for disciplining public officials but they are not sufficient separation of powers between executive and legislative bodies also helps to prevent the abuse of power but only with appropriate checks and balances checks and balances work by creating a conflict of interest between the executive and the legislature yet requiring both bodies to agree on public policy in this way the two bodies discipline each other to the voters advantage under appropriate checks and balances separation of powers also helps the voters elicit information

the evolution of the industrial organisation of the production of knowledge this work elaborates the notion of localised technological knowledge based upon the distinction between information competence and knowledge and analyses the emergence of the new knowledge industry the evolution of the organisation of knowledge production is analysed through four stylised modes scientific entrepreneurship institutional variety vertical integration and technological cooperation the new trends towards the growth of knowledge intensive business service industries are detected and underlined they are considered as the outcome of the institutional formation of a market for knowledge based upon a process of increasing appropriability of localised knowledge based on the blending of generic scientific information and competence and growing scope of applicability via computercommunication systems deverticalisation of research activities from the boundaries of corporations the specification of a demand for technological competence and the specialising of independent firms in the production of technological competence and knowledge

tallest in the world native americans of the great plains in the nineteenth century historians often portray native americans as merely unfortunate victims of european disease and aggression with lives in disarray that followed the arrival of columbus and other explorers or conquerors the data we analyze on human stature show in contrast that some native americans such as the equestrian plains nomads were remarkably ingenious and adaptive in the face of exceptional demographic stress using anthropometric data originally collected by franz boas we show that the plains nomads were tallest in the world during the mid nineteenth century we link this extraordinary achievement to a rich and varied diet modest disease loads other than epidemics a remarkable facility at reorganization following demographic disasters and egalitarian principles of operation the analysis provides a useful mirror for understanding the health of euro americans this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

assessing welfare impact of entry into power market abstract this paper calculates the welfare impact of a new entrant based on the location of entry in the korean electricity market we use two different models one is the optimal fuel mix model to estimate the effect of a new entry in the long run the other is the variable cost minimization model to assess the contribution of an existing installed private generator in the short run a specific private generator which has a cost advantage saves a substantial amount of system wide variable costs we show that the right location for a new entrant can save power generation costs significantly even if a new entrant does not have a cost advantage

financial market efficiency the decomposition of anticipated versus unanticipated money growth and further tests of the relation between money and real output note probably the most controversial empirical findings in macroeconomics in the last decade stem from robert barro s investigations into the relative effects of unanticipated versus anticipated money growth on unemployment and real output these studies generally proceed by decomposing observed money growth into what is defined to be its anticipated and unanticipated components and then test the restriction that only the unanticipated money measure has important effects for unemployment and real output in black box reduced form real side equations that include determinants of the natural rates of unemployment and real output as additional explanatory variables l the results of these tests for the annual postwar u s data generally cannot reject the hypothesis that only unanticipated money growth is important for the determination of aggregate real activity 2 anticipated money growth is found to be neutral for unemployment and real output these results are important because they give empirical support to the assertion that the apparent nonneutrality of observed money growth does not provide any firm basis for the efficacy of a systematic countercyclical monetary policy it should be clear that a crucial problem in testing for the neutrality nonneutrality of anticipated unanticipated money growth lies in developing an appropriate decomposition of observed money growth into its anticipated and unanticipated parts small 13 mishkin 8 and weintraub 14 among others have

a non nested test of the new classical neutrality proposition for canada this paper uses a non nested testing technique to test the neutrality proposition of the new classical economics a new classical model and an alternative model are estimated and tested against each other the test results indicate that the alternative model rejects the new classical model and that the neutrality proposition cannot be supported empirically

the slave trade and the origins of mistrust in africa in a recent study nunn 2008 examines the long term impacts of africa s slave trade he finds that the slave trade which occurred over a period of more than 400 years had a significant negative effect on long term economic development although the article arguably identifies a negative causal relationship between the slave trade and income today the analysis is unable to establish the exact causal mechanisms underlying this reduced form relationship in this article we examine one of the channels through which the slave trade may affect economic development today combining contemporary individual level survey data with historical data on slave shipments by ethnic group we ask whether the slave trade caused a culture of mistrust to develop within africa initially slaves were captured primarily through state organized raids and warfare but as the trade progressed the environment of ubiquitous insecurity caused individuals to turn on others including friends and family members and to kidnap trick and sell each other into slavery sigismund wilhelm koelle 1854 p e h hair 1965 charles piot 1996 we hypothesize that in this environment a culture of mistrust may have evolved which may persist to this day we show that current differences in trust levels within africa can be traced back to the transatlantic and indian ocean slave trades combining contemporary individual level survey data with historical data on slave shipments by ethnic group we find that individuals whose ancestors were heavily raided during the slave trade are less trusting today evidence from a variety of identification strategies suggests that the relationship is causal examining causal mechanisms we show that most of the impact of the slave trade is through factors that are internal to the individual such as cultural norms beliefs and values jel j15 n57 z13

anticipated monetary policy and real output evidence from latin american countries this paper is an empirical investigation of the effects of anticipated and unanticipated monetary policies on real output for 13 ldcs in latin and central america the well know mishkin econometric procedure is applied to the annual imf date for the decomposition of actual money growth into anticipated and unanticipated components and the evidence of significant relation between anticipated money supply and real output for each country is reported the results derived in this paper thus provide additional empirical support for the validity of the non classical rational expectations macro models of fisher and phelps and taylor

ethnic diversity social sanctions and public goods in kenya abstract this paper examines ethnic diversity and local public goods in rural western kenya the identification strategy relies on the stable historically determined patterns of ethnic land settlement ethnic diversity is associated with lower primary school funding and worse school facilities and there is suggestive evidence that it leads to poor water well maintenance the theoretical model illustrates how inability to impose social sanctions in diverse communities leads to collective action failures and we find that school committees in diverse areas do impose fewer sanctions on defaulting parents we relate these results to the literature on social capital and economic development and discuss implications for decentralization in less developed countries

history social divisions and public goods in rural india we examine the influence of three historically important sources of social divisions on the availability of public goods in rural india colonial power landowner peasant relations as determined by the land tenure system and social fragmentation based on the hindu caste system and the presence of sizable religious minorities using data on public goods from 1991 we find that regions that were under british colonial power in the pre independence period and those where agrarian power was concentrated in the hands of landlords have lower access to these goods as do areas with high levels of social fragmentation jel h41 p16

community composition and collective action analyzing initial mail response to the 2000 census this paper analyzes how community heterogeneity influences resident decisions to undertake actions generating public benefits the decision in question is completing and returning the 2000 census questionnaire an action which secures a significant amount of federal grants for the community the model developed to explain this action allows members of societal groups to differentially value public benefits that accrue to other group members racial generational and socioeconomic class heterogeneity all predict significantly lower response rates at the county level the potential for endogenous sorting into heterogeneous counties implies that the magnitude of true behavioral effects exceeds these estimates

growth theory and industrial revolutions in britain and america abstract long run economic growth has again become a major focus of economic theory a perception of technological change as an economic process with externalities has motivated the development of aggregate models that generate different steady state growth paths economic history has also long been interested in long run economic growth here a dialogue is presented between growth theory and the historical literature on the industrial revolution in britain and america s surge to international economic leadership in the late nineteenth century in conclusion economists recent thinking about the microeconomics of technological change has provided fruitful material for the economic historian of growth unfortunately the models of endogenous growth on the other hand present too aggregated a view of the economy to prove helpful when confronted with the details of economic history jel classification n0 n1 1 theorie de la croissance et revolutions industrielles en grande bretagne et en amerique la croissance economique a long terme est redevenue un point d interet majeur pour la theorie economique une perception du changement technologique comme processus economique porteur d externalites a engendre le developpement de modeles agreges qui generent differents sentiers de croissance en regime permanent l histoire economique s interesse depuis longtemps a la croissance economique a long terme ce texte engage le dialogue entre la theorie de la croissance et la litterature historique a propos de la revolution industrielle en grande bretagne et de l emergence de l amerique au statut de leader international a la fin du dix neuvieme siecle on en arrive a la conclusion que les recents developpements dans la pensee economique a propos de la micro economie du changement technologique ont produit des resultats utiles pour l histoire economique de la croissance malheureusement d autre part les modeles de croissance endogene presente une vue trop agregee de l economie pour s averer utile dans l examen des details de l histoire economique

the long term effects of africa s slave trades can part of africa s current underdevelopment be explained by its slave trades to explore this question i use data from shipping records and historical documents reporting slave ethnicities to construct estimates of the number of slaves exported from each country during africa s slave trades i find a robust negative relationship between the number of slaves exported from a country and current economic performance to better understand if the relationship is causal i examine the historical evidence on selection into the slave trades and use instrumental variables together the evidence suggests that the slave trades have had an adverse effect on economic development

selection on observed and unobserved variables assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools in this paper we measure the effect of catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores because we do not have a good instrumental variable for catholic school attendance we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to the amount of selection on the unobservables we also propose an informal way to assess selectivity bias based on measuring the ratio of selection on unobservables to selection on observables that would be required if one is to attribute the entire effect of catholic school attendance to selection bias we use our methods to estimate the effect of attending a catholic high school on a variety of outcomes our main conclusion is that catholic high schools substantially increase the probability of graduating from high school and more tentatively attending college we find little evidence of an effect on test scores

economic integration and political disintegration in a world of trade restrictions large countries enjoy economic benefits because political boundaries determine the size of the market under free trade and global markets even relatively small cultural linguistic or ethnic groups can benefit from forming small homogeneous political jurisdictions this paper provides a formal model of the relationship between openness and the equilibrium number and size of countries and successfully tests two implications of the model firstly the economic benefits of country size are mediated by the degree of openness to trade secondly the history of nation state creations and secessions is influenced by the trade regime

production and environmental resources a prelude to an evolutionary framework the paper advances a framework to study the evolution of technology and institutions it is based on two simple tenets first the quality and quantity of environmental resources are defined and constrained by the regime of technology and institutions second the character and extent of innovations are informed and limited by the regime as well the framework is contrasted with neoclassical and ecological economics while the framework assimilates ideas from both paradigms it departs from them by stressing the importance of the technological institutional regime tir the two views ignore in different ways the significance of tir 46 the neoclassical program conceives the flow of innovations as tir independent while the ecological agenda regards the fund of resources as tir independent 1 consequently both camps fail to provide an endogenous account of the observed punctuated character of the evolution of tir neoclassical economists maintain that as a resource depletes its price rises which induces switching to a cheaper one encourages exploration or spurs invention harold barnett and chandler morse 7 11 state that nature imposes particular scarcities not an inescapable general scarcity the responses to environmental resource limitation are supposedly singular activities stripped from any underpinning regime the neoclassical disregard of tir heuristically resembles the fable of marie antoinette s folly in response to the scarcity of bread at the eve of the french revolution she advised according to legend buying cake instead ecological economists offer a different view of resource limits 48 for herman daly 21 8 nature really does impose an inescapable general scarcity while neoclassical economists emphasize relative limitation scarcity pricing ecological economists stress malthusian general limitation for ecological economists substitution can solve relative allocation but cannot solve general limitation general limitation can be avoided only if economic activity proceeded within certain boundaries or as put by martin o connor 69 within appropriate cyclical structure of resource transformations under the motto sustainable development a low pace production activity supposedly enables a population to replicate indefinitely ecological economists conceive

the origins of american industrial success 1879 1940 the united states became the world s preeminent manufacturing nation at the turn of the twentieth century this study considers the bases for this success by examining the factor content of trade in manufactured goods surprisingly the most distinctive characteristic of u s manufacturing exports was intensity in nonreproducible natural resources furthermnore this relative intensity was increasing between 1880 and 1920 the study then asks whether resource abundance reflected geological endowment or greater exploitation of geological potential it was mainly the latter jel 042 recent thinking about american economic performance has been marked by alarm over the country s loss of its competitive edge most of this discussion is not rooted in an understanding of the historical origins of the economic leadership now thought to be in jeopardy modern economists tend to assume that the american advantage has been technological and

do better property rights improve local income evidence from first nations treaties abstract this paper examines the effect of an improvement in property rights on a local economy using the case of first nations modern treaties these treaties are an important institutional reform that clarifies ownership of land and natural resources near aboriginal communities using confidential micro data i find evidence of a positive impact of modern treaties on real income the effect is driven by employment income and spreads across workers in industries not directly affected by the reform i also find an increase in real wages and housing costs the effects are similar in neighboring communities outside indian reserves these results are consistent with property right reforms creating a positive demand shock that affects the whole local economy this is a yet understudied mechanism through which better property rights can generate positive local spillovers

historical origins of firm ownership structure the persistent effects of the african slave trade this paper uses evidence from the historical african slave trade to extend prior theory linking modern firm ownership structure to institutions and social capital we argue that institutions and so

war and local collective action in sierra leone abstract we study the brutal 1991 2002 sierra leone civil war using nationally representative household data on conflict experiences postwar economic outcomes local politics and collective action individuals whose households directly experienced more intense war violence are robustly more likely to attend community meetings more likely to join local political and community groups and more likely to vote tests using prewar controls and alternative samples suggest that selection into victimization is unlikely to be driving the results more speculatively the findings could help partially explain the rapid postwar political and economic recoveries observed in sierra leone and after several other recent african civil wars

bank regulation and monetary policy the depository institutions deregulation and monetary control act 1980 and the garn st germain depository institutions act 1982 are the two most significant pieces of bank legislation since the 193os their significance stems from the fact that they have sought to roll back a number of the regulations and restrictions imposed on bank activity and competition in the 1933 80 period among the important provisions of these acts are a gradual elimination of regulation q ceilings on time and savings deposits by march 1986 the amelioration of state imposed usury ceilings on loans the nationwide provision of interest bearing transaction type accounts negotiable order of withdrawal now and super now accounts permission for thritts to expand into bank like products such as commercial and industrial loans consumer loans and credit cards and the development of new types of savings accounts such as mmdas l in addition to legislative deregulation we have also witnessed homemade deregulation as banks have sought to exploit often with great success loopholes in the bank holding

stock market dispersion and unemployment abstract the sectoral shifts hypothesis advanced by lilien 1982 and davis 1987 suggests that unemployment is in part the result of resources being reallocated from declining to expanding sectors of the economy using u s data from 1931 to 1987 we test this hypothesis by constructing an index measuring the dispersion among stock prices from different industries we find that lagged values of this index significantly affect unemployment we show that the stock market dispersion index is less contaminated by aggregate demand influences than lilien s employment dispersion index which makes our test less vulnerable to the abraham and katz 1986 critique

investment incentives in the korean electricity market abstract this paper develops a model based analysis of the effects of various capacity incentive systems on new investment in the korean electricity market the restructuring process in korea allocated power generation to six firms competing within a wholesale market albeit strictly on a cost basis because of this cost based pool capacity payments were also introduced to encourage new investment however it is an open question whether the current fixed capacity payment scheme is enough to secure resource adequacy and consideration is being given to alternative mechanisms such as the use of lolp using a detailed market simulation model based on system dynamics we compare these approaches in terms of how they may influence the investors decisions and thereby determine the system reserve margin the simulation results suggest that there may be serious problems in staying with the current fixed capacity payments in order to achieve resource adequacy in contrast an lolp based capacity mechanism may in the longer term increase the reserve margin compared with a fixed capacity payment more generally this paper indicates how crucial the effective modeling of the investment behavior of the independent power producers is for adequate policy support even if they only constitute a fringe in a substantially centrally influenced market

the theorems of international trade with factor mobility abstract this paper addresses the relation between goods trade and international factor mobility in general terms the basic theorems of international trade suitably interpreted are shown to hold in their strong versions if the number of international markets for goods and factors is at least as large as the number of factors the crucial dimensionality issue is hence not the relative number of goods and factors per se but the number of international markets relative to the number of factors only the price version of the heckscher ohlin theorem fails to be essentially preserved by this condition

disease and development in historical perspective health conditions and disease environments are important for economic outcomes this paper argues that the main impact of disease environments on the economic development of nations is not due to the direct effect of health conditions on income but rather because of their indirect effect via institutions health does affect income directly but this can explain only a small fraction of today s differences in per capita income in contrast when previously isolated populations came into contact during the period of european colonial expansion differences in disease environments had a major impact on the path of institutional development and consequently first order consequences for economic growth jel i12 o12

sovereignty credible commitments and economic prosperity on american indian reservations abstract american indian reservations are islands of poverty in a sea of wealth because this poverty cannot be explained solely by natural resource physical and human capital constraints institutions are likely to be part of the explanation one of the institutional variables is the sovereign power of tribes which allows tribal governments to act opportunistically the potential for such opportunistic behavior can thwart economic development if tribes are unable to make credible commitments to stable contract enforcement one avenue for credible commitments is public law 280 which required some tribes to turn judicial jurisdiction over civil disputes to the states in which they reside using data for 1969 99 we find that per capita income for american indians on reservations subject to state jurisdiction grew significantly more than it did for indians who were not

the resource adequacy scheme in the korean electricity market abstract in south korea the incentive scheme for generators to add new power generation is based on the system marginal price smp and the capacity payment cp the infra marginal generators receive an extra margin due to the high smp level and the new infra marginal generators need to be built to achieve the optimal fuel mix however the metropolitan zone needs more marginal generators due to the transmission congestion and environmental regulations but the marginal generator in the metropolitan zone does not have adequate profits for the new investment under the current cp this paper suggests the appropriate investment incentive scheme for different zones the introduction of forward capacity markets for different regions creates higher capacity market prices in the metropolitan zone than those in the southern zone the introduction of forward capacity market also induces a new lng generator investment in the metropolitan zone while only new infra marginal generators need to be added in the southern zone

forced coexistence and economic development evidence from native american reservations there are large differences in economic development across native american reservations today this paper asks whether these differences can be in part explained by the forced integration of historically autonomous sub tribal bands in the 19th century to measure forced integration i combine anthropological data on intra tribal political integration in pre reservation times with historical information on the constituent bands of each reservation exploring variation in how politically integrated tribes were before reservations and variation in how politically integrated reservations were at the time of their formation i find that forced integration lowers per capita incomes today by about 30 percent to account for potential selection into forced integration i exploit historical mining rushes as a source of exogenous variation in the government s incentive to combine bands onto reservations the iv strategy confirms the baseline results i also provide quantitative evidence on the channels through which forced integration affects incomes today

the optimal fuel mix and redistribution of social surplus in the korean power market this paper investigates the difference between the optimal fuel mix incorporating a pre installed generation capacity constraint and the actual fuel mix in the korean power market since the restructuring of the market the fuel mix has been determined partly by investors and partly by the basic plan for long term electricity supply and demand bpe both the system marginal price smp and the capacity payment cp which has been based on the fixed cost of a specific gas turbine generator were intended to provide an investment incentive in the market however they did not bring about an optimal fuel mix in korea under the circumstances of a shortage of base load generators these generators may garner excessive profits due to a high smp level however the adjustment scheme of profit between kepco and gencos left scant profit for generators this paper suggests that a contract is needed to create the appropriate profit and tax levels for these base load generators the redistribution of profit improves equality between consumers and generators and the proper margin creates incentives for base load technology investment in korea

electricity market design for generator revenue sufficiency with increased variable generation we present a computationally efficient mixed integer program mip that determines optimal generator expansion decisions and hourly unit commitment and dispatch in a power system the impact of increasing wind power capacity on the optimal generation mix and generator profitability is analyzed for a test case that approximates the electricity market in texas ercot we analyze three market policies that may support resource adequacy operating reserve demand curves ordc fixed reserve scarcity prices frsp and fixed capacity payments cp optimal expansion plans are comparable between the ordc and frsp implementations while capacity payments may result in additional new capacity the frsp policy leads to frequent reserves scarcity events and corresponding price spikes while the ordc implementation results in more continuous energy prices average energy prices decrease with increasing wind penetration under all policies as do revenues for baseload and wind generators intermediate and peak load plants benefit from higher reserve prices and are less exposed to reduced energy prices all else equal an ordc approach may be preferred to frsp as it results in similar expansion and revenues with less extreme energy prices a fixed cp leads to additional new flexible ngct units but lower profits for other technologies

unexpected monetary disturbances during the gold standard era abstract this empirical paper uses the barro methodology of estimating unexpected monetary shocks to determine the effect these shocks had on real output in the u s during the gold standard era between 1880 and 1913 it also investigates whether changes in a measure of financial intermediation had real effects the results indicate that neither expected nor unexpected money shocks affected output changes in financial intermediation however were significantly correlated with output this result lends support to theories which stress the endogeneity of broad measures of the money supply

comparative advantage in uk manufacturing trade 1910 1935 this paper uses a maintained hypothesis of comparative advantage based on relative factor endowments to investigate uk manufacturing trade prior to world war ii the results from several independent tests indicate that britain exported goods intensive in the use of unskilled labour and had a comparative disadvantage in goods intensive in the use of human capital right up to the mid 1930s this is consistent with the views of contemporaries but somewhat at odds with recent optimistic assessments of structural change in pre war britain this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

does anticipated monetary policy matter an econometric investigation a heated debate has arisen over the policy ineffectiveness proposition associate with the work of lucas sargent and wallace it postulates that anticipated aggregate demand policy will have no effect on business cycle fluctuations so that one deterministic feedback policy rule is as good as any other from the point of view of stabilizing the economy this paper develops a methodology for empirically analyzing rational expectations models displaying this neutrality result and then applies it to the important question of whether anticipated monetary policy matters to the business cycle

together or separate post conflict partition ethnic homogenization and the provision of public schooling abstract the partitioning of political jurisdictions is becoming an increasingly common component of agreements to end ethnic conflict although its impact on post conflict recovery remains unclear this paper studies the effects of the partition which ended the 1992 1995 bosnian war on the post war provision of public schooling i find that partitioned municipalities provide 58 more primary schools and 37 more teachers per capita driven mainly by convergent preferences for ethnically oriented schools however this arrangement delivers distributional consequences in partitioned municipalities ethnic majority children are more likely to complete primary schooling while for ethnic minority children it is the opposite

replication in empirical economics the journal of money credit and banking project this paper examines the role of replication in empirical economic research it presents the findings of a two year study that collected programs and data from authors and attempted to replicate their published results the research provides new and important information about the extent and causes of failures to replicate published results in economics the findings suggest that inadvertent errors in published empirical articles are a commonplace rather than a rare occurence copyright 1986 by american economic association

anticipated money inflation uncertainity and real economic activity this paper critically examines a number of maintained hypotheses that are necessarily being tested along with the basic notion derived from the rational expectations re formulation of lucas 1972 19 73 that only unanticipated money matters the trend stationary representation of secular real output of lucas and others is replaced by a difference stationary representation found by nelson and plosser 1980 to be consistent with u s historical data the impact of inflation uncertainty on real activity is considered attention is paid to possible mis measurement of agents ex ante anticipated money growth it is found that three alternative measures of anticipated money growth produce a stable impact on growth of output and employment contemporaneous and lagged values of unanticipated money growth have no significant additional explanatory power in the presence of any one of the three measures of anticipated money growth beyond this it is impossible to reject the hypothesis that the initial positive real impact of anticipated money is not temporary inflation uncertainty is found to act as a significant depressant of real economic activity in the presence of all tested combinations of anticipated and unanticipated money growth this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item