socio economic characteristics and the effect of taxation as a health policy instrument abstract this paper analyses the quantitative effects of using economic instruments in health policy on the basis of price elasticities calculated from estimated demand systems the nutritional effects of various taxation schemes are compared for households in different age groups and social classes focusing on the consumption of saturated fats fibre and sugar it is generally found that the impact of price instruments is stronger for lower social classes than in other groups of the population with regard to age groups it is mostly the youngest that decrease their demand for saturated fat in response to price changes while it is mostly the middle aged who exhibit price responsiveness in their demand for sugar these groups are however not considered as key target groups for dietary regulation thus tax instruments may be effective in improving diets on average but the design of the instruments and the targeting of vulnerable groups with special needs should be done with care it should be noted that a tax on a single nutrient or food may have undesired effects on the demand for other food components though this may be avoided by introducing taxes subsidies on several food products simultaneously

co2 emissions energy consumption economic growth and financial development in gcc countries dynamic simultaneous equation models abstract this study investigates the dynamic causal relationships among carbon emissions financial development economic growth and energy consumption for gulf cooperation council gcc countries from 1980 through 2011 annual time series data and an autoregressive distributed lag ardl model are used the main contribution of this paper is that it has investigated the causes of carbon emissions by taking into account the role of financial development and economic growth in gcc countries the results suggest long run and causal relationships among carbon emissions financial development gross domestic product gdp and energy use in all gcc countries except united arab emirates uae moreover there is long run unidirectional causality running from carbon emissions to energy use in the case of saudi arabia uae and qatar furthermore a one way causal relationship from financial development to carbon emissions in the context of uae oman and kuwait is found the evidence suggests that financial systems should take into account environmental aspects in their current operations in these countries the results of this study may be of great importance for policy and decision makers in developing energy policies for gcc countries that contribute to curbing carbon emissions while preserving economic growth

taxing food and beverages theory evidence and policy we developed a theoretical framework to examine the effect of a change in sales or excise tax on food and beverage demand after considering that consumers may have imperfect tax knowledge are sometimes inattentive to sales tax may not be informed of a sales tax change and pay no sales tax on eligible food or beverages if using food stamps we conducted simulations to assess how much the sales tax elasticity of demand should be adjusted downward from the price elasticity of demand and quantified the advantage of using an excise tax as an anti obesity policy copyright 2013 oxford university press

crude oil corn ethanol nexus a contextual approach this paper offers a holistic study on the complex relationships between crude oil corn and ethanol during a turbulent period between 2006 and end of 2011 through a holistic mapping of the current market situation and a contextual analytical design we show that there exists a strong relationship between crude oil and corn markets on one side and crude oil and ethanol on the other however the price relationship between corn and ethanol was revealed to be less straightforward and is driven by the us government fuel policy furthermore the study indicates that corn markets have became more prone to volatility due to ethanol production especially when the demand for corn is high and or the crude oil prices are high enough to create a competitive market for ethanol

the dual structure of incomplete demand systems integrability of incomplete demand systems is discussed the concepts of weak integrability quasi expenditure function quasi indirect utility function and quasi utility function are defined their relationships to the expenditure function indirect utility function and utility function are developed the dual structure of the quasi functions permits exact welfare analysis and reveals the conditional preference structure for the commodities of interest new results relating the uniqueness and exactness of consumer s surplus to the structure of the expenditure and indirect utility functions are obtained

impact of cost shocks on consumer prices in vertically related markets the case of the french soft drink market we develop a structural econometric model of the vertical contracts between soft drink manufacturers and retailers to assess the impact of taxes or changes in production costs on consumer prices using individual data on food purchases from a representative survey of 19 000 french households in 2005 we estimate consumer demand using a random utility approach among a set of possible vertical relationships we select the model that best fits the data we evaluate the pass through rate of changes in input costs sugar or of taxes and show that the industry over shifts cost changes or excise taxes to the consumers this result challenges the belief that firms do not pass on the full extent of cost changes or excise taxes to consumers

demand for prepared meals by u s households using the 1987 88 nfcs a heckman two stage procedure was used to estimate the demand for prepared meals by u s households prepared meals were defined as those ready to eat and those ready to cook households headed by younger more educated and time constrained managers were more likely to purchase prepared meals income elasticities ranged from 0 07 to 0 13 while own price elasticities ranged from 0 23 to 0 66 evidence exists to indicate that prepared meals and food away from home are substitutes the presence of teenagers in a household is positively associated with expenditures of prepared meals

toward optimal meat consumption external cost from meat consumption raises an issue of possible government mechanisms toward mitigation economic theory provides a framework for determining the optimal set of mechanisms considering the associated benefits and costs such a theoretical development rests on consumers responsiveness to alternative mechanisms considering two mechanisms a pigouvian tax and green label education yields tandem theoretical optimal government mechanisms populating this theoretical model with empirically derived elasticities and other parameters provides an application results indicate education alone will likely not yield a high social optimal level of mitigation instead if external costs warrant government mechanisms a pigouvian tax will be required to move consumption toward a socially optimal state

permanent and transitory oil volatility and aggregate investment in malaysia abstract this paper investigates the relation between aggregate investment and oil volatility and its permanent and transitory components for a developing country malaysia in the paper the components generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity cgarch model is utilized to decompose conditional oil volatility into permanent oil volatility and transitory oil volatility respectively reflecting fundamental driven and random shifts in oil volatility they are expected to exert differential effects on aggregate investment adopting a vector autoregression var framework to allow feedback effects between aggregate investment and its determinants the paper documents evidence supporting the adverse effects of conditional oil volatility permanent oil volatility and transitory oil volatility on aggregate investment and real output interestingly contrary to the findings for the developed markets us and oecd the real effects of permanent oil volatility tend to be stronger these findings are reasonably robust to variable specification and measurements in the var system hence there is an indication that heightened oil volatility accounts for the slumps in malaysia s aggregate investment after the asian financial crisis

information health risk beliefs and the demand for fats and oils mean and variance measures of health information about cholesterol and saturated fat are included in a demand system for fats and oils a bayesian model of health risk belief and consumer awareness surveys are the basis for computing these measures the empirical demand model shows that health information has resulted in significant increases in consumption for corn cottonseed and soybean oils and decreased consumption for butter and lard the predicted demand effects based on the bayesian information model are more reasonable than predictions from using either a time trend or a simple cumulative cholesterol information index copyright 1995 by mit press

predicting consumer demand responses to carbon labels abstract providing carbon footprint labels for all food products is a daunting and potentially infeasible project knowing how consumers substitute away from high carbon goods and what they choose as substitutes is essential for understanding which goods are likely to result in meaningful reductions in carbon emissions this paper proposes a model to systematically estimate how consumers will respond to information from a carbon footprint label our model uses consumers value of their individual carbon footprint with own and cross price elasticities of demand data on carbon emissions from life cycle analysis to simulate shifts in consumer demand for 42 food products and a non food composite and subsequent changes in carbon emissions from different labeling schemes our simulation results have several findings including 1 carbon labels can reduce emissions but labeling only some items could lead to perverse impacts where consumers substitute away from labeled goods to unlabeled goods with a higher carbon footprint 2 carbon labels can inform consumers such that their previous beliefs about carbon footprints matter and 3 carbon labels on alcohol and meat would achieve the largest decreases in carbon emissions among the 42 food products studied

environmental impacts of changes to healthier diets in europe food consumption causes together with mobility shelter and the use of electrical products most life cycle impacts of consumption meat and dairy are among the highest contributors to environmental impacts from food consumption a healthier diet might have less environmental impacts using the e3iot environmentally extended input output database developed in an eu study on environmental impacts of products eipro this paper estimates the difference in impacts between the european status quo and three simulated diet baskets i e a pattern according to universal dietary recommendations the same pattern with reduced meat consumption and a mediterranean pattern with reduced meat consumption production technologies protein and energy intake were kept constant though this implies just moderate dietary shifts impact reductions of up to 8 were possible in reduced meat scenarios the slightly changed food costs do not lead to significant first order rebound effects second order rebounds were estimated by applying the capri partial equilibrium model this analysis showed that european meat production sector will most likely respond by higher exports to compensate for losses on the domestic meat market higher impact reductions probably would need more drastic diet changes 2011 elsevier b v

oil price shocks and real gdp growth empirical evidence for some oecd countries this study assesses empirically the effects of oil price shocks on the real economic activity of the main industrialized countries multivariate var analysis is carried out using both linear and non linear models the latter category includes three approaches employed in the literature namely the asymmetric scaled and net specifications evidence of a non linear impact of oil prices on real gdp is found in particular oil price increases are found to have an impact on gdp growth of a larger magnitude than that of oil price declines with the latter being statistically insignificant in most cases among oil importing countries oil price increases are found to have a negative impact on economic activity in all cases but japan moreover the effect of oil shocks on gdp growth differs between the two oil exporting countries in the sample with the uk being negatively affected by an oil price increase and norway benefiting from it

the danish tax on saturated fat short run effects on consumption substitution patterns and consumer prices of fats abstract denmark introduced a tax on saturated fat in food products with effect from october 2011 the objective of this paper is to make an effect assessment of this tax for some of the product categories most significantly affected by the new tax namely fats such as butter butter blends margarine and oils this assessment is done by conducting an econometric analysis on weekly food purchase data from a large household panel dataset gfk panel services denmark spanning the period from january 2008 until july 2012 the econometric analysis suggest that the introduction of the tax on saturated fat in food products has had some effects on the market for the considered products in that the level of consumption of fats dropped by 10 15 furthermore the analysis points at shifts in demand from high price supermarkets towards low price discount stores at least for some types of oils and fats a shift that seems to have been utilised by discount chains to raise the prices of butter and margarine by more than the pure tax increase due to the relatively short data period with the tax being active interpretation of these findings from a long run perspective should be done with considerable care it is thus recommended to repeat and broaden the analysis at a later stage when data are available for a longer period after the introduction of the fat tax

are oil shocks permanent or temporary panel data evidence from crude oil and ngl production in 60 countries this paper examines the unit root properties of crude oil production for 60 countries employing a range of panel data unit root tests for the period 1971 to 2003 the study first employs a number of panel data tests that do not accommodate structural breaks and then proceeds to apply the lagrange multiplier lm panel unit root test with one structural break the results of the panel data tests without a structural break are inconclusive with at best mixed support for joint stationarity the findings from the lm panel unit root test with a structural break however are conclusive suggesting that for a world panel and smaller regional based panels crude oil and ngl production are jointly stationary

the residential demand for electricity in australia an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration this paper reports estimates of the long and short run elasticities of residential demand for electricity in australia using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration within an autoregressive distributive lag framework in the long run we find that income and own price are the most important determinants of residential electricity demand while temperature is significant some of the time and gas prices are insignificant our estimates of long run income elasticity and price elasticity of demand are consistent with previous studies although they are towards the lower end of existing estimates as expected the short run elasticities are much smaller than the long run elasticities and the coefficients on the error correction coefficients are small consistent with the fact that in the short run energy appliances are fixed

renewable energy oil prices and economic activity a granger causality in quantiles analysis this paper analyzes the causal relationship between renewable energy consumption oil prices and economic activity in the united states from july 1989 to july 2016 considering all quantiles of the distribution although the concept of granger causality is defined for the conditional distribution the majority of papers have tested granger causality using conditional mean regression models in which the causal relations are linear we apply a granger causality in quantiles analysis that evaluates causal relations in each quantile of the distribution under this approach we can discriminate between causality affecting the median and the tails of the conditional distribution we find evidence of bi directional causality between changes in renewable energy consumption and economic growth at the lowest tail of the distribution besides changes in renewable energy consumption lead economic growth at the highest tail of the distribution our results also support the unidirectional causality from fluctuations in oil prices to economic growth at the extreme quantiles of the distribution finally we find evidence of lower tail dependence from changes in oil prices to changes in renewable energy consumption our findings call for government policies aimed at developing renewable energy markets to increase energy efficiency in the u s

price and income elasticities of disaggregated import demand results from uecms and an application this paper presents an empirical analysis of the demand for maize milk powder butter and rice imports in cyprus using annual time series data covering the period 1975 1994 none of these products is produced in cyprus and all the necessary quantities are imported to meet domestic demand the primary objective of the paper is to derive long run price and income elasticities of import demand that can be used to analyse the impact of various policies such as the adoption of the common agricultural policy cap when and if the republic of cyprus joins the european union eu in so doing the paper takes on board some recent developments in time series econometrics the cointegration test used the bounds test is a recent test and is based on the estimation of an unrestricted error correction model uecm parsimonious models were derived using hendry s general to specific approach the estimated elasticities were subsequently used to quantify some of the implications for cyprus had the cap been ope

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

five a day a price to pay an evaluation of the uk program impact accounting for market forces we provide an ex post assessment of the uk 5 a day information campaign where the positive effects of information are disentangled from potentially conflicting price dynamics using 4 years of data from the expenditure and food survey between 2002 and 2006 we estimate that the 5 a day program has lifted fruit and vegetable consumption by 0 3 portions on average we also provide quantitative evidence of a differentiated impact by income group ranging from 0 2 to 0 7 portions all impacts are larger than those observed by simply comparing pre policy and post policy intakes

crude oil and the macroeconomy tests of some popular notions a note perhaps no other economic events in the post world war ii era have generated as much attention as the series of crude oil price shocks that have jolted the world economy since the opec boycott of 1973 a tremendous amount of space in the popular and professional literature has been devoted to analyzing the impacts of these shocks on the developed economies and the adjustments these shocks have induced one residual of this literature has been a general impression that since 1973 the functional relationship between crude oil prices and the developed macroeconomies has been dramatically and fundamentally altered yet to our knowledge no one has formally tested this impression recent evidence of hamilton 1983 suggests that crude oil prices had a strong impact on the u s business cycle well before 1973 further while textbook treatments of oil price shocks tend to highlight cost push inflationary effects the research of berndt and wood 1975 1979 and wilcox 1983 indicates the net complementarity between energy and capital in the u s economy is quite strong both before and after 1973 thus oil price shocks may have stronger real effects than generally believed in this paper we formally test three popular notions associated with the so called

choosing tax rates and public expenditure levels using majority rule abstract a sufficient condition is presented for a policy to be a condorcet winner when voters differ only in a single characteristic the condition is that all voters utility gradients with respect to the n different policy dimensions lie in the same plane in r n if the policy is a set of commodity tax rates then the condition is implied by the linearity of voters common engel curves if the policy includes levels of public good provision then the vectors of marginal willingness to pay for the various public goods of the different voters must all lie on the same line

ten years of five a day policy in the uk nutritional outcomes and environmental effects abstract this paper estimates the impact of policy measures aimed at increasing fruit and vegetable f v consumption in the uk over more than a decade evaluating changes in purchased quantities and estimating the corresponding greenhouse gas emissions ghges we use a counterfactual scenario analysis to isolate the effects of the policy from the influences of evolving prices incomes and socio demographic factors our estimates suggest that the positive effects of the promotion campaigns on f v purchases about half a portion per adult equivalent per day still persist 10 years after the start of the policy implementation and we find no evidence of a wearout effect we also provide suggestive evidence that the dietary adjustment which accompanies the increase in f v intakes translates into a relevant reduction in ghges by an average amount of 3 3kg of co2e per adult equivalent per month

dynamics of electricity consumption oil price and economic growth global perspective this study uses the data from 157 countries from 1960 to 2014 to analyze the relationship between economic growth electricity consumption oil prices capital and labor the economic growth of developing countries with industrial infrastructure has a more significant association with electricity consumption than oil prices we use oil prices and electricity consumption jointly to study highly predictive observations for economic growth the data are categorized by income oecd and regional levels the panel cointegration long run parameter estimation and pool mean group tests are used to analyze the cointegration and short run and long run relationships between the variables the empirical results indicate the presence of cointegration between the variables the presence of feedback effects between electricity consumption and economic growth oil prices and economic growth is valid these findings confirm that in spite of the oil prices developing countries rely heavily on electricity consumption for economic growth in the short run growth and feedback effects suggest that more vigorous electricity policies should be implemented to attain sustainable economic growth for the long term

modelling oil price volatility in this paper we examine the volatility of crude oil price using daily data for the period 1991 2006 our main innovation is that we examine volatility in various sub samples in order to judge the robustness of our results our main findings can be summarised as follows 1 across the various sub samples there is inconsistent evidence of asymmetry and persistence of shocks and 2 over the full sample period evidence suggests that shocks have permanent effects and asymmetric effects on volatility these findings imply that the behaviour of oil prices tends to change over short periods of time

simple normative rules imply simple positive rules abstract when n policy instruments must be chosen the set of pareto optima is defined as simple if it can be spanned by two vectors an example would be a head tax and a uniform sales tax it is shown that majority rule must result in a condorcet winner the preferred policy of the median voter if the set of pareto optima is simple

fruit and vegetable consumption patterns a segmentation approach in this article we study the heterogeneity of fruit and vegetable consumption patterns in france a finite mixture of aids models is used to describe food demand patterns revealing different preferences over distinct classes we obtained six different clusters which reflect specific socio demographic characteristics and different income and price elasticities this approach is appropriate for targeting specific public nutritional policies our main results show that unlike the other clusters in which the usual price and income policy tools may be used the lowest income cluster with the lowest consumption remains insensitive to economic variables

global oil glut and sanctions the impact on putin s russia abstract the russian economy is highly responsive to oil price fluctuations at the start of 2014 the country was already suffering from the weak economic growth partly due to the ongoing crisis in ukraine and western sanctions the recent plunge in global oil prices put even further strain on the russian economy this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between oil price shocks economic sanctions and leading macroeconomic indicators in russia we apply a vector autoregression var to quantify the effects of oil price shocks as well as western economic sanctions on real gdp real effective exchange rate inflation real fiscal expenditures real consumption expenditures and external trade using quarterly data from 1999 1 until 2015 1 our results show a significant impact of oil prices on the russian economy we predict that russia s economic outlook is not very optimistic if sanctions remain until the end of 2017 the quarter to quarter real gdp will contract on average by 19 percent over the next two years

is there co movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil even though significant attempts have appeared in literature the current perception of co movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static in particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures a comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed our results indicate that co movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold

how do obese people afford to be obese consumption strategies of russian households this article investigates the extent to which russian households that differ in their members weight status adjust their food consumption differently when their economic resources change using household panel data from the russia longitudinal monitoring survey rlms from 1995 to 2005 we estimate total expenditure elasticities of food expenditures food quantities and food quality for normal weight overweight and obese households respectively the expenditure elasticities of quality derived for obese households for meat bread fruits and dairy were found to be 15 20 higher than those of normal households hence a change in economic resources causes obese households to adjust the quality of purchased foods significantly more flexibly than normal weight households only few differences were found for quantity and expenditure reactions our results emphasize that policies aiming to reduce obesity should consider deviations in consumption behavior of normal and obese consumers in terms of quality

demand systems and frequency of purchase models understanding the frequencies of purchase and the average purchased quantities is important for marketing strategies such as the loss leader pricing strategy we develop a framework for analysing a

price of oil and world inflation and recession new evidence shows that the commonly held assumption that the 1973 74 oil price increase directly affected us and world inflation and subsequent recession is consistent with the empirical data an extended lucas varro real income equation applied to the us united kingdom canada france germany italy japan and the netherlands gives mixed results partly because of price control and decontrol programs simulation experiments on the price control variable using us data finds strong effects further studies can be made when consistent international data is available for the 1979 80 period 18 references 4 figures 3 tables dck

the effects of a fat tax on french households purchases a nutritional approach this article assesses the effects of a fat tax on the nutrients purchased by french households across different income groups this is done by making a preliminary estimation of price elasticities using a complete demand system on household scanner data and by calculating nutrient elasticities using estimated price elasticities we find that a fat tax has small and ambiguous effects on nutrients purchased by french households and a slight effect on body weight in the short run with a greater effect in the long run such a tax generates substantial tax revenue but is highly regressive

are saving and investment cointegrated an ardl bounds testing approach using the newly developed ardl bounds testing procedure we find that as implied by the intertemporal budget constraint u s saving and investment rates cointegrate in all sample periods considered our results also show that the saving investment correlation weakens after 1971 suggesting that the feldstein horioka approach provides an at least partially informative measure of capital mobility

economic assessment of nutritional recommendations abstract the effect of consumers compliance with nutritional recommendations is uncertain because of potentially complex substitutions to lift this uncertainty we adapt a model of consumer behaviour under rationing to the case of linear nutritional constraints dietary adjustments are derived from information on consumer preferences consumption levels and nutritional contents of foods a calibration exercise simulates for different income groups how the french diet would respond to various nutrition recommendations and those behavioural adjustments are translated into health outcomes through the dietron epidemiological model this allows for the ex ante comparison of the efficiency equity and health effects of ten nutritional recommendations although most recommendations impose significant taste costs on consumers they are highly cost effective with the recommendations targeting salt saturated fat and fruits and vegetables f v ranking highest in terms of efficiency most recommendations are also economically progressive with the exception of that targeting f v

estimating the shadow prices of so2 and nox for u s coal power plants a convex nonparametric least squares approach abstract weak disposability between outputs and pollutants defined as a simultaneous proportional reduction of both outputs and pollutants assumes that pollutants are byproducts of the output generation process and that a firm can freely dispose of both by scaling down production levels leaving some inputs idle based on the production axioms of monotonicity convexity and weak disposability we formulate a convex nonparametric least squares cnls quadratic optimization problem to estimate a frontier production function assuming either a deterministic disturbance term consisting only of inefficiency or a composite disturbance term composed of both inefficiency and noise the suggested methodology extends the stochastic semi nonparametric envelopment of data stoned described in kuosmanen and kortelainen 2011 applying the method to estimate the shadow prices of so 2 and no x generated by u s coal power plants we conclude that the weak disposability stoned method provides more consistent estimates of market prices

this is what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many of the quarterly oil price increases observed since 1985 are corrections to even bigger oil price decreases the previous quarter when one looks at the net increase in oil prices over the year recent data are consistent with the historical correlation between oil shocks and recessions

optimally uniform commodity taxes taste differences and lump sum grants abstract optimal commodity taxes for an economy with many households should be at a uniform proportional rate under certain conditions these include i linear and parallel engel curves with intercepts dependent on household composition ii separability between goods and labour and iii optimal demogrants

earmarking and the political support of fat taxes a fat and a healthy good provide immediate gratification and cause health costs or benefits in the long run which are misperceived additionally the fat good healthy good increases decreases health care costs by increasing decreasing the probability of suffering from a chronic disease in the future individuals differ in income and in their degree of misperceptions concerning the health effects of the consumption of fat and of healthy goods the level of the fat tax is determined through majority voting individuals vote according to their misperceived utility function consequently excessive fat consumption is not due to a self control problem but due to information deficiencies or cognitive inability to process information a fraction of the fat tax proceeds is earmarked to reduce health insurance premiums while the remaining fraction finances a subsidy on the healthy good this earmarking rule is determined at a constitutional stage to maximize utilitarian or rawlsian welfare anticipating the induced political equilibrium we show that the fat tax in the political equilibrium is always lower than the utilitarian fat tax this is no longer necessarily true with a rawlsian objective the determination of the optimal earmarking rule is quite complex even in the utilitarian case it is not just used to boost political support for the fat tax instead it may involve a tradeoff between the fat tax and the healthy good subsidy

understanding the oil price exchange rate nexus for the fiji islands in this paper we examine the relationship between oil price and the fiji us exchange rate using daily data for the period 2000 2006 we use the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch and exponential garch egarch models to estimate the impact of oil price on the nominal exchange rate we find that a rise in oil prices leads to an appreciation of the fijian dollar vis a vis the us dollar

united states demand for food and nutrition in the twentieth century the relationships between diet and health are once again the center of debate over farm and food policy targeted food aid programsfood stamps aid to families with dependent children and the women infants and children program can create incentives for food purchases and consumption that are not consistent with those created by programs to support farm prices and incomes marketing orders target prices and deficiency payments the sugar program and farm price supports the result could be that food aid recipients spend more on food but are presented with incentives to eat unhealthy diets due to policy induced price distortions understanding the economic forces behind food and nutrient con

simulation of indirect tax reforms using pooled micro and macro french data this paper assesses the consequences of two reforms of the french indirect taxation system a vat harmonization which is close to initial ec proposals and a carbon tax which aims at decreasing the emissions of carbon dioxide we simulate the effects of tax reforms using estimates of a model of household expenditure behaviour estimation is obtained by using the property of perfect aggregation over households of the almost ideal demand system on pooled micro data from the 1978 1979 1984 1985 1989 issues of the french enquete budgets des familles combined with macro data from the quarterly national accounts from 1970 to 1990 simulations are conducted using a subsample of households from the 1989 consumer survey and generate useful results about the behavioural reactions to tax changes the impact on government revenue and the distributional effects of the reforms

the welfare effects of health based food tax policy this paper examines the effects of health oriented food tax reforms on the distribution of tax payments food demand and health outcomes we offer an illustration of how one can take into account the uncertainty related to both demand estimation and health estimates and to produce confidence intervals for the overall health effects instead of only point estimates taxation of sugar could lead to a statistically significant reduction in both the incidence of type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease the health effects appear to be most pronounced for low income individuals and the reforms may therefore reduce health inequality this effect undermines the traditional regressivity argument against the heavy taxation of unhealthy food

nutrient elasticities in a complete food demand system this study explores the linkage of the determinants of food choice with consumer nutrient availability by developing a procedure to measure changes in nutrient availability as the demand for food items change it uses demand elasticities from traditional demand analysis to estimate elasticities of changes in the nutritional content of consumer diets the procedure is applied to estimate nutrient elasticities for fifteen nutrients in response to changes in thirty five food prices and per capita income

a cost benefit analysis of the eu 20 20 2020 package the european commission did not publish a cost benefit analysis for its 2020 climate package this paper fills that gap comparing the marginal costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction the uncertainty about the marginal costs of climate change is large and skewed and estimates partly reflect ethical choices e g the discount rate the 2010 carbon price in the eu emissions trading system can readily be justified by a cost benefit analysis emission reduction is not expensive provided that policy is well designed a condition not met by planned eu policy it is probably twice as expensive as needed costing one in ten years of economic growth the eu targets for 2020 are unlikely to meet the benefit cost test for a standard discount rate 3 pure rate of time preference the benefit cost ratio is rather poor 1 30 so that benefits need to be very much higher or costs very much lower than typically assumed to justify the 2020 targets only a very low discount rate 0 prtp would justify the 20 emission reduction target for 2020

are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary evidence from 182 countries this article applies univariate and panel data unit root tests to annual panel data for 182 countries over the period 1979 2000 to examine the stationarity properties of per capita energy consumption the univariate unit root test can only reject the unit root null for 56 countries or 31 of the sample at the 10 level or better however univariate unit root tests have low power with short spans of data and therefore failure to reject the unit root null should be treated with caution when we apply the panel data unit root test we find overwhelming evidence that energy consumption is stationary we discuss the policy implications of these findings and offer suggestions for future research

getting consumers to eat more whole grains the role of policy information and food manufacturers the 2005 dietary guidelines were unique because they offered quantitative recommendations for consumption of whole grains this case study examines the hypothesis that the changed recommendations were responsible for the recent increase in retail sales and consumption of whole grain food products we find that release of the dietary guidelines and related media attention did increase availability and sales of whole grain foods a large impact on consumption occurred through reformulation of existing products induced by competition among food suppliers this study reveals the key role product reformulation plays in inter firm competition and in realization of dietary changes recommended by public

an assessment of the potential consumption impacts of who dietary norms in oecd countries the member countries of the world health organization who have recently endorsed its global strategy on diet physical activity and health the strategy emphasises the need to limit the consumption of saturated fats and trans fatty acids salt and sugars and to increase consumption of fruits and vegetables in order to combat the growing burden of non communicable diseases this paper attempts a broad quantitative assessment of the consumption impacts of these norms in oecd countries using a mathematical programming approach we find that adherence to the who norms would involve a significant decrease in the consumption of vegetable oils 30 dairy products 28 sugar 24 animal fats 30 and meat pig meat 13 5 mutton and goat 14 5 and a significant increase in the human consumption of cereals 31 fruits 25 and vegetables 21

integrating climate change and health into food policy an analysis of how climate change can affect food prices and population health abstract the inter related nature of food health and climate change requires a better understanding of the linkages and a greater alignment of policy across these issues to be able to adequately meet the pressing social and health challenges arising from climate change food price is one way through which climate change may affect health the aim of this study of the global and australian food systems is to provide a whole of system analysis of food price vulnerabilities highlighting the key pressure points across the food system through which climate change could potentially have the greatest impact on consumer food prices and the implications for population health we outline areas where there are particular vulnerabilities for food systems and food prices arising from climate change particularly global commodity prices agricultural productivity short term supply shocks and less direct factors such as input costs and government policies we use australia as a high income country case study to consider these issues in more detail the complex and dynamic nature of pricing mechanisms makes it difficult to predict precisely how prices will be impacted should prices rise disproportionately among healthy foodstuffs compared to less healthy foods there may be adverse health outcomes if less expensive and less healthy foods are substituted higher prices will also have equity implications with lower socio economic groups most impacted given these households currently spend proportionately more of their weekly income on food the ultimate objective of this research is to identify the pathways through the food system via which climate change may affect food prices and ultimately population health thereby providing evidence for food policy which takes into account environmental and health considerations

oil prices and current account a structural analysis for the turkish economy abstract although there has been an increasing number of studies about the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic performances the literature on the interaction between oil prices and current account is limited especially for oil importing developing countries this paper analyzes the impact of oil prices on the current account balances for the turkish economy using a structural vector autoregression model our model allows us to identify the net effect of oil prices on current account balances after controlling for other factors such as output gap and exchange rate misalignment the results show that the response of current account ratio to oil price shock increases gradually up to the first three months and then starts to decrease which indicates a significant effect of oil price shocks in the short run moreover when the obtained structural shocks are employed in a simple regression analysis the parameter regarding the oil price shocks is found to be negative and statistically significant the final section discusses the policy implications of the results

the effect of prices on nutrition comparing the impact of product and nutrient specific taxes this paper provides an analysis of the role of prices in determining food purchases and nutrition using very detailed transaction level observations for a large nationally representative sample of us consumers over the period 2002 2007 using product specific nutritional information we develop a new method of partitioning the product space into relevant nutritional clusters that define a set of nutritionally bundled goods which parsimoniously characterize consumer choice sets we then estimate a large utility derived demand system over this joint product nutrient space that allows us to calculate price and expenditure elasticities using our structural demand estimates we simulate the role of product taxes on soda sugar sweetened beverages packaged meals and snacks and nutrient taxes on fat salt and sugar we find that a 20 nutrient tax has a significantly larger impact on nutrition than an equivalent product tax due to the fact that these are broader based taxes however the costs of these taxes in terms of consumer utility are only about 70 cents per household per day a sugar tax in particular is a powerful tool to induce healthier nutritive bundles among consumers

designing a tax to discourage unhealthy food and beverage purchases the case of chile the global shift towards diets high in sugar sweetened beverages ssbs and energy dense ultra processed foods is linked to higher prevalence of obesity diabetes and most other noncommunicable diseases ncds causing significant health costs chile has the highest ssb consumption in the world very high junk food intake and very rapid increases in these poor components of the diet plus obesity prevalence this study s purpose is to compare the effect of different tax schemes for ssbs and ultra processed foods on nutrient availability utilizing price elasticities which are estimated from a quadratic almost ideal demand system model using the 2011 2012 income and expenditure survey we take into account the high proportion of households not purchasing various food and beverage groups censored nature of data the food groups considered were sweets and desserts salty snacks and chips meat products and fats fruits vegetables and seafood cereals and cereal products ssb ready to drink ssb from concentrate plain water coffee and tea and milk which together represent 90 of food expenditures the simulated taxes were 1 40 price tax on ssbs 22 above the current tax level 2 a 5 cents per gram of sugar tax on products with added sugar and 3 30 price tax on all foods 27 above current tax levels and beverages 12 above the current tax level exceeding thresholds on sodium saturated fat and added sugar and for which marketing is restricted based on a chilean law effective june 16 2016 unhealthy foods are price elastic 1 99 for salty snacks and chips 1 06 for ssbs ready to drink and 1 27 for ssbs from concentrate meaning that the change in consumption is proportionally larger with respect to a change in price results are robust to different model specification and consistent among different socioeconomic sub populations overall the tax on marketing controlled foods and beverages is associated with the largest reduction in household purchases of sodium added sugar saturated fat and calorie purchases chile is unique in currently having instituted a small current ssb tax as well as marketing controls and front of package labeling of unhealthy foods and beverages the design of a larger more comprehensive tax to enhance the overall effect of these policies on healthier diets is a next critical step this study shows that a large tax on the same foods and beverages already delineated as unhealthy by the marketing controls and front of pack labeling should prove to be more effective for promoting a healthier diet

a reconsideration of the sugar sweetened beverage tax in a household production model abstract we study the impact of a hypothetical tax on sugar sweetened beverages ssbs on the u s households nutrients purchase welfare change and health benefit differently from the traditional approach food at home fah is here defined as a home good instead of a market good and consumers demands derived under the assumption that households maximize utility subject to both a money and a time constraint the model is estimated by using an incomplete approximate exact affine stone index easi demand system on a data set built by merging the u s consumer expenditure and time use surveys results show that a ssb tax would be much more effective in decreasing household nutrients purchase than it would appear by estimating a model neglecting time costs in home food production due to a lesser compensation of calories from increasing fah consumption a tax induced 38 increase in ssb price is predicted to decrease the per capita energy purchase by 41 kcal day

panel and pseudo panel estimation of cross sectional and time series elasticities of food consumption the case of american and polish data the problem addressed in this article is the bias to income and expenditure elasticities estimated on pseudo panel data caused by measurement error and unobserved heterogeneity we gauge empirically these biases by comparing cross sectional pseudo panel and true panel data from both polish and american expenditure surveys our results suggest that unobserved heterogeneity imparts a downward bias to cross section estimates of income elasticities of at home food expenditures and an upward bias to estimates of income elasticities of away from home food expenditures within and first difference estimators suffer less bias but only if the effects of measurement error are accounted for with instrumental variables

welfare and sustainability effects of dietary recommendations the paper develops a framework combining a model of rational behaviour under dietary constraints an epidemiological model of diet related mortality and a life cycle analysis model of environmental impact which permits the ex ante assessment of dietary recommendations in multiple sustainability dimensions i e taste cost welfare effect deaths avoided reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and acidification it is applied to compare in a french context the relative effects and efficiency of six popular sustainable diet recommendations the results confirm the synergies between the health and environmental dimensions healthy eating recommendations usually have a positive effect on the environment although some exceptions exist most of the sustainable diet recommendations appear highly cost effective but those most commonly promoted on health grounds e g targeting consumption of salt fruits and vegetables and saturated fat rank highest in terms of overall efficiency moreover the valuation of benefits indicates that in most cases health benefits are significantly larger than environmental benefits overall the analysis reveals some under investment in the promotion of sustainable diet recommendations in france the general lack of enthusiasm in policy circles for informational measures promoting behavioural change may reflect unrealistic expectations about the speed and magnitude of dietary change rather than an objective assessment of the efficiency of those measures

information and advertising the case of fat consumption in the united states the role of information in markets has become a mainstay of the economics literature theoretical work has focused on the market effects of asymmetric information and costly search incentives for voluntary disclosure contracting and other market and policy solutions to information issues see michael katz 1989 and joseph stiglitz 1989 for recent reviews and on how consumers ability to use information could affect market outcomes as in the recent work on information cascades e g sushil bikhchandani et al 1992 the empirical literature testing informational theories is more limited in large part because the key variable of interest information is so difficult to measure most of the literature relies on indirect tests usually based on regulatory differences as in the study of state restrictions on advertising for eyeglasses lee benham 1972 or on new information or public education campaigns typified by the studies of smoking see w kip viscusi 1992 for a recent summary other studies examine cross sectional differences in behavior in an effort to assess whether human capital or other individual or household differences are important in explaining responses to evolving information this paper follows these traditions specifically this study examines changes in fat and saturated fat consumption in the united states as information spread connecting these lipids to heart disease and cancer risks 1 the study examines changes in consumption during two regulatory regimes the years 1977 1985 when government and general information sources continued their efforts to educate the public about the links between fats and disease risks and when producers were free to label these characteristics on food packages and in advertising and the years 1985 1990 when the regulatory ban was lifted that prohibited producers from explaining the reasons why consumers should be interested in the content of foods this controversial regulatory change allowed the use of so called health claims in labeling and advertising subject to the normal deception rules for all advertising and labeling claims 2 comparison of these two periods allows us to provide evidence on whether and how consumers reacted to the general flow of information prior to 1985 and whether advertising appears to have added information to the market or as many critics believe provided deceptive or sufficiently incomplete information to undermine public education efforts

incorporating demand shifters in the almost ideal demand system abstract intercepts of share equations generally include demand shift variables in the almost ideal demand system and related models this results in estimates that depend on units of measurement solutions to this problem are identified and discussed

determining the impact of food price and income changes on body weight we develop a theoretical model to identify conditions under which price and income changes are most likely to change weight although it is intuitive that raising the price of high calorie food will decrease consumption of such goods it is not clear that such an outcome will actually reduce weight our empirical analysis demonstrates a case where a tax on food away from home a food intake category blamed for much of the rise in obesity could lead to an increase in body weight a finding which emphasizes the need to employ economic modeling when developing public policy to reduce obesity

food choice health information and functional ingredients an experimental auction employing bread abstract in this paper we present the results of an experimental auction conducted to examine the influence of health and nutritional information on food choice and in particular estimate consumer willingness to pay wtp for bread that contains functional ingredients employing a sandwich we find that consumers are wtp more for a whole grain and whole grain granary bread sandwich than other bread types including white bread that contains a functional ingredient we also find that consumers react positively to the provision of nutritional and health benefit information but that this effect occurs regardless of whether we supply specific or non specific health benefit information we discuss information provision and health policy implications that emerge from our analysis for bread products in the sandwich market

growth and oil price a study of causal relationships in small pacific island countries this paper investigates the nexus between economic growth and oil price in small pacific island countries pics except papua new guinea none of the 14 pics has fossil any fuel resources consequently the other 13 pics are totally dependent on oil imports for their economic activities since pics have limited foreign exchange earning capacities as they have a very narrow range of exports and are highly dependent on foreign aid high oil prices in recent months have seriously tested their economic resilience this paper applies the ardl bounds testing methodology to four selected pics samoa solomon islands tonga and vanuatu which have consistent and reliable time series of data with a view to assess the impact of oil price on economic growth the findings are that oil price gross domestic product and international reserve are cointegrated in all the four pics further both in the long and short runs we observe that there is a uni directional relationship as causality linkage runs only from oil price and international reserves to economic growth the paper makes some policy recommendations

tax incidence with strategic firms in the soft drink market abstract because soft drink sd consumption is considered to be a contributor to the epidemic of obesity there is a growing interest in evaluating the impact on sd consumption of alternative tax policies in this paper we propose a methodology to evaluate the impact of taxation of a food market taking into account the strategic price response of both manufacturers and retailers we apply this methodology to the french sd market and simulate the impacts of ad valorem and excise taxes we find that firms behave differently when facing an ad valorem tax or an excise tax an excise tax is overshifted to consumer prices while an ad valorem tax is undershifted to consumer prices we find that an excise tax based on the sugar content of sd is the most effective at reducing sd consumption our results also indicate that ignoring strategic pricing by firms leads to misestimations of the impact of taxation by between 15 and 40 depending on the products and the tax implemented in the short term that is ignoring positive long term health effects a 9 cents l excise tax has a small negative welfare effect about 1 person year

exploring the oil price and real gdp nexus for a small island economy the fiji islands the goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between real gdp and oil prices using time series data for the period 1970 2005 our main finding is that an increase in oil has a positive albeit inelastic impact on real gdp inconsistent with the bulk of the literature we argue that this is not a surprising result for the fiji islands our central argument focuses on two aspects of the fijian economy 1 the fact that actual output in fiji has been around 50 per cent less than potential output thus fiji s actual output has not reached a threshold level at which oil prices can negatively impact output and 2 a rise in oil prices filters through to value added which in turn is reflected in a larger actual output

time frequency relationship between u s output with commodity and asset prices abstractcommodity and asset prices have a well documented effect on economic growth as manifested through various channels at the same time the business cycle influences the commodity and asset prices whereas empirical evidence on the effect of commodity and asset prices on the long run economic growth is ambiguous most of the previous researches highlight a positive correlation in the short run the aim of this article is to disentangle the short and long run co movements between us historical business cycles and commodity and asset prices over the period 1859 2013 for this purpose we use a time frequency approach and we test the historical influence of oil gold housing and stock prices over the output growth in contrast to other studies we control for the effect of other prices and monetary conditions using the wavelet partial coherency in line with the previous works we discover that co movements between economic growth and commodity and assets prices manifest especially in the short run

the saving and investment nexus for china evidence from cointegration tests the saving and investment nexus as postulated by feldstein and horioka fh 1980 is revisited the saving investment correlation for china is estimated over the periods 1952 1998 and 1952 1994 the latter culminating in a period of fixed exchange rate regime amongst the key results it is found that saving and investment are correlated for china for both the period of the fixed exchange rate and the entire sample period with high saving investment correlation the results suggest that the chinese economy is in conformity with the fh hypothesis this is a valid outcome for in china capital mobility was fairly restricted over the 1952 1994 period as indicated by the relatively low foreign direct investment

the electricity consumption and gdp nexus for the fiji islands fiji is a small open island economy dependent on energy for its growth and development hence the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is crucial for fiji s development in this paper we investigate the nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth for fiji within a multivariate framework through including the labour force variable we use the bounds testing approach to cointegration and find that electricity consumption gdp and labour force are only cointegrated when gdp is the endogenous variable we use the granger causality f test and find that in the long run causality runs from electricity consumption and labour force to gdp implying that fiji is an energy dependent country and thus energy conservation policies will have an adverse effect on fiji s economic growth

quadratic engel curves and consumer demand this paper presents a model of consumer demand that is consistent with the observed expenditure patterns of individual consumers in a long time series of expenditure surveys and is also able to provide a detailed welfare analysis of shifts in relative prices a nonparametric analysis of consumer expenditure patterns suggests that engel curves require quadratic terms in the logarithm of expenditure while popular models of demand such as the translog or the almost ideal demand systems do allow flexible price responses within a theoretically coherent structure they have expenditure share engel curves that are linear in the logarithm of total expenditure we derive the complete class of integrable quadratic logarithmic expenditure share systems a specification from this class is estimated on a large pooled data set of u k households models that fail to account for engel curvature are found ro generate important distortions in the patterns of welfare losses associated with a tax increase

oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down an extension of hamilton s results in an important paper hamilton 1983 demonstrated a strong correlation between oil price changes and gross national product growth in u s data however his study pertained to a period in which all the large oil price movements were upward and thus it left unanswered the question whether the correlation persists in periods of price decline moreover the price variable he used was somewhat distorted by price controls in the 1970s this note investigates whether hamilton s results continue to hold when the sample is extended to include the recent oil market collapse and the oil price variable is corrected for the effects of price controls particular attention is given to the possibility of asymmetric responses to oil price increases and decreases as suggested in the structural employment literature loungani 1986 davis 1987 hamilton 1988 like hamilton i based my investigation on the gnp equation in sims s 1 980b six variable quarterly vector autoregressive model