estimation of consumer demand with stock out based substitution an application to vending machine products the occurrence of temporary stock outs at retail is common in frequently purchased product categories available empirical evidence suggests that when faced with stock outs consumers are often willing to buy substitute items an important implication of this consumer behavior is that observed sales of an item no longer provide a good measure of its core demand rate sales of items that stock out are right censored while sales of other items are inflated because of substitutions knowledge of the true demand rates and substitution rates is important for the retailer for a variety of category management decisions such as the ideal assortment to carry how much to stock of each item and how often to replenish the stock the estimated substitution rates can also be used to infer patterns of competition between items in the category in this paper we propose methods to estimate demand rates and substitution rates in such contexts we develop a model of customer arrivals and choice between goods that explicitly allows for possible product substitution and lost sales when a customer faces a stock out the model is developed in the context of retail vending an industry that accounts for a sizable part of the retail sales of many consumer products we consider the information set available from two kinds of inventory tracking systems in the best case scenario of a perpetual inventory system in which times of stock out occurrence and cumulative sales of all goods up to these times are observed we derive maximum likelihood estimates mles of the demand parameters and show that they are especially simple and intuitive however state of the art inventory systems in retail vend ing provide only periodic data i e data in which times of stock out occurrence are unobserved or missing for these data we show how the expectation maximization em algorithm can be employed to obtain the mles of the demand parameters by treating the stock out times as missing data we show an application of the model to daily sales and stocking data pooled across multiple beverage vending machines in a midwestern u s city the vending machines in the application carry identical assortments of six brands since the number of parameters to be estimated is too large given the available data we discuss possible restrictions of the consumer choice model to accomplish the estimation our results indicate that demand rates estimated naively by using observed sales rates are biased even for items that have very few occurrences of stock outs we also find significant differences among the substitution rates of the six brands the methods proposed in our paper can be modified to apply to many nonvending retail settings in which consumer choices are observed not their preferences and choices are constrained because of unavailability of items in the choice set one such context is in store grocery retailing where similar issues of information availability arise in this context an important issue that would need to be dealt with is changes in the retail environment caused by retail promotions

public enterprise reform privatization and the world bank abstract the objectives of this paper are i to review the importance and performance of public enterprises in developing countries ii to examine the questions of whether and why performance improvements should result from privatization and iii to discuss in light of the preceding analysis the approach used by the world bank concerning privatization

efficiency effect of privatization in the developing countries privatization gained considerable momentum in the developing world in the 1980s the motives were many but the hope for higher economic efficiency underlined the expectations of the implementing governments and agencies in the developing countries while the merits of a market based economic system are well established under certain theoretical conditions far less is known of its empirical relevance in the developing world yet to the best of the author s knowledge no empirical study has examined the macro efficiency effect of privatization in the developing countries studies concerned with this issue often limit themselves to the impact of privatization at the firm level for a small number of companies and countries thus the current study is an attempt to provide a systematic quantitative measure of the magnitude of the macroeconomic effect of privatization in 45 developing countries using the concept of frontier production function efficiency differences between developing countries with differ

a two stage disaggregate attribute choice model a two stage disaggregate attribute choice model is proposed and empirically implemented the first stage of the model is attribute processing to screen the number of alternatives down to a lesser number the second stage is brand alternative processing which considers the attributes simultaneously while allowing for tradeoffs among the attributes this two stage approach is then applied to the same real world data set as two single stage disaggregate models logit and maximum likelihood hierarchical mlh which are state of the art models representing the alternative and attribute processing approaches respectively the predictive accuracy of the two stage approach compares favorably to the single stage models in addition it seems to offer diagnostic information that can provide managerial insights not found in the output of the single stage model

a nested logit model of space and water heat system choice this paper estimates a nested logit model for space heat and water heat choice using data from the 1980 pacific northwest energy survey pnw the estimated structure involves six alternative space heat systems and three alternative water heat fuel types operating and capital costs are predicted for each residence using an energy thermal model to relax the independence of irrelevant alternatives assumption we employ a family of nested logit models we illustrate the two step estimation method and use a lagrange multiplier test for nested logit structure finally we use the estimated models to forecast the market shares of alternative space heat systems under an assumed scenario for the course of relative fuel prices

the choice theory approach to market research this paper surveys economic choice theory stressing developments that permit use of data from psychometric and conjoint experiments to produce market demand forecasts alternatives to the widely used multinomial logit model are summarized and a new method for estimating multinomial probits is described an integration of choice models with attitudinal scaling and perceptual mapping within a latent variable system is described estimation of such systems under either random effects or fixed effects descriptions of heterogeneity across individuals is discussed issues in the use of choice models to describe responses from conjoint experiments are presented new regression diagnostic tests for the consistency of multinomial logit representations are discussed

antecedents and performance implications of channel integration in foreign markets this study enhances our understanding of channel integration in foreign markets on two fronts first the eclectic approach to foreign entry mode proposed by hill hwang and kim 1990 and kim and hwang 1992 is used to examine transaction specific organizational capability and strategic factors that influence channel choices in foreign markets empirical results based on survey of u s firms support the combined relevance of these factors in predicting the degree of channel integration second the study empirically examines the performance consequences of channel integration the results suggest that although the degree of channel integration does not have a direct influence on channel performance a contingency model based on the fit between the contextual factors and the actual channel choice is significantly related to performance in foreign markets

privatization liberalization wages and employment theory and evidence for the uk most agency based privatization models are of the owner manager relation and ignore the labour market yet in the 1980s there were profound changes in public sector and privatized firms to wages and employment we develop a bargaining model of the manager workforce relation that explains employment and wages when firms are privatized government objectives become more commercial and markets are liberalised using data on 14 uk companies 1972 1988 that were publicly owned in 1972 we find a employment fell following the change to more commercial objectives b wages were only slightly affected by this but fell if the firm lost market power

high frequency trading and extreme price movements abstract are endogenous liquidity providers elps reliable in times of market stress we examine the activity of a common elp type high frequency traders hfts around extreme price movements epms we find that on average hfts provide liquidity during epms by absorbing imbalances created by non high frequency traders nhfts yet hft liquidity provision is limited to epms in single stocks when several stocks experience simultaneous epms hft liquidity demand dominates their supply there is little evidence of hfts causing epms

paying for market quality many financial markets including electronic limit order markets assign designated liquidity providers lps we study the experience of the stockholm stock exchange where listed firms contract directly with lps our analysis offers insights regarding situations where designated liquidity provision may be beneficial in addition we consider the form of liquidity provision contracts including affirmative obligations required of the lp and compensation for lp services we find that low current trading activity wide spreads and higher information asymmetry increase the attractiveness of contracted liquidity provision the evidence indicates that lps trade against market movements and in times of wide spreads on balance firms contracting with lps experience a decreased cost of capital and significant improvements in market quality and price discovery

the financial and operating performance of newly privatized firms an international empirical analysis this study compares the pre and postprivatization financial and operating performance of 61 companies from 18 countries and 32 industries that experience full or partial privatization through public share offerings during the period 1961 to 1990 our results document strong performance improvements achieved surprisingly without sacrificing employment security specifically after being privatized firms increase real sales become more profitable increase their capital investment spending improve their operating efficiency and increase their work forces furthermore these companies significantly lower their debt levels and increase dividend payout finally we document significant changes in the size and composition of corporate boards of directors after privatization the last fifteen years have witnessed a significant global shift away from state socialism towards entrepreneurial capitalism one of the most important and visible aspects of this trend has been the enthusiasm with which governments of all political persuasions have sold their state owned enterprises soes to private investors in hopes that the generally unsatisfactory economic performance of these firms can be improved by the discipline of private ownership this denationalization process given its current title of privatization by the conservative government of margaret thatcher in

the influence of involvement on disaggregate attribute choice models the state of the art in applying the various disaggregate choice algorithms is to assume homogeneity of choice process within the population being analyzed this article uses the involvement variable a priori to categorize the sample population into a high involvement segment using a model that assumes a simultaneous or alternative processing approach and a low involvement segment using a model that assumes a hierarchical or an attribute processing approach empirical results indicate increased predictive accuracy and diagnostic information that is more closely related to established consumer behavior theory

black white earnings differentials privatization versus deregulation over 40 years ago gary becker 1957 argued that competition helps mitigate the ability of firms to engage in wage and employment discrimination deregulated transportation industries in particular provide fertile ground to test the becker hypothesis the increase in competition from deregulation should make it increasingly costly for employers to exercise discriminatory preferences several studies of the deregulated trucking industry provide support for this hypothesis nancy l rose 1987 peoples and lisa saunders 1993 john s heywood and peoples 1994 this study also utilizes information on transportation industries to test the becker hypothesis it differs from the literature in that one of the transportation industries examined is privatized 1 at question is whether the becker hypothesis also holds for a publicly owned transportation industry in a privatized environment this question is addressed by investigating privatization s effect on black white earnings differentials of public transit bus drivers these results are then compared with deregulation s effect on black white earnings differentials of private for hire truck drivers such a comparison allows for analyzing differences in differential earnings for comparable occupations in privatization and deregulation regimes i transportation industries

high frequency trading and comovement in financial markets abstract using the staggered entry of chi x in 12 european equity markets as a source of exogenous variation in high frequency trading hft we find that hft causes significant increases in comovement in returns and in liquidity about one third of the increase in return comovement is due to faster diffusion of market wide information we attribute the remaining two thirds to correlated trading strategies of hfts the increase in liquidity comovement is consistent with hft liquidity providers being better able to monitor other stocks and adjust their liquidity provision accordingly our findings suggest a channel by which hft impacts the cost of capital

choice map inferring a product market map from panel data this paper describes choice map a model that infers a product market map from panel data choice map is a stochastic brand choice model a random utility quantal choice model and a multidimensional scaling procedure choice map combines the parsimony of stochastic choice models the rationale of random utility models and the ability of multidimensional scaling procedures to simultaneously infer both brand positions and consumer preferences from preference choice data choice map assumes that consumers have stationary purchase probabilities for the observational period which makes the model best suited to frequently bought mature product categories neither experimental nor survey data are required traditional mapping methods that scale such data may not yield the same structure for low involvement products as will a procedure like choice map that scales behavioral data choice map s descriptive and predictive validity exceeds that of an alternative stochastic brand choice model the dirichlet multinomial for a test data set

lessons from privatization in britain abstract the process of privatizing most of britain s major public enterprises yields interesting conclusions on the three related issues 1 a problem of policy assignment arose in the use of privatization and liberalization to achieve both allocative and productive efficiency 2 evidence on the behavior of the public enterprises is consistent with an organizational model of the relevant principal agent relationships predicting certain types of slack absorption 3 the privatization process entailed policy choices that bear on their future productive efficiency effectiveness of monitoring by the market for corporate control and allocative efficiency provision for regulation

the benefits of privatization evidence from mexico critics of privatization often argue that its benefits come at a high cost to society the authors test the validity of this criticism for mexico s privatization program one of the world s largest case by case programs assessing the performance of newly privatized firms in such areas as profitability and efficiency they find that these firms quickly close the gap with their peers in the private sector their findings suggest that the firms profit gains come from productivity gains 52 percent layoffs 33 percent and higher prices 15 percent

technical note simplified estimation procedures for mci models structural transformations of the mci model are presented which make the model easily estimated using dummy variables with widely available regression packages the mci model is empirically shown to provide better predictive power than several other models of similar form but ones which do not produce logically consistent market share estimates

privatization in the united kingdom lessons from experience abstract although the reasons for privatization vary across countries in the united kingdom as in other countries it also reflects a renewed belief in market forces the search for policy options that emerges from this renewal however needs to be tempered by an understanding of market as well as regulatory failures although problems facing government enterprises in developed and developing countries may differ the objective of privatization should be to reconstruct these enterprises so as to create conditions that make private sector operations effective and efficient at the same time one should recognize that this may require continued public sector activity in the sector

a minimum discrimination information estimation of multiattribute market share models multiattribute market share models mmsm using supplier product and buyer attributes as explanatory variables generally use a logit model structure the literature indicates two basic types of approaches for estimating coefficients regression type approaches generally using log share ratios and a nonregression approach which is based on maximum likelihood principles this article discusses a nonregression estimation approach a minimum discrimination information mdi whose formulation differs from mdi procedures previously applied to the marketing literature the mdi formulation enables researchers to estimate a logit model with proportions as the dependent variable and is computationally easy because it uses the same estimators as an mle approach which assumes independence of trials equivalence between mdi and mle estimates under certain conditions are discussed the estimation methods are applied to a real world data set the results indicate the mdi mle method does best in predicting the market shares of the suppliers according to some basic error criteria both at disaggregate and aggregate levels

compensation and wealth transfers in the french nationalizations 1981 1982 abstract this paper studies the price reaction of french common stocks to the recent nationalization program and estimates the value that nationalized firms would have had if the nationalization program had not occurred it finds that expropriated holders of the nationalized portfolio received a government legislated takeover premium of about 20 percent premiums received for individual firms ranged from 3 to 44 percent industrial firm shareholders benefited most from the program the conditions surrounding the premium dispersion raise questions about equal treatment among expropriated shareholders

liquidity provision contracts and market quality evidence from the new york stock exchange we exploit a discontinuity in the new york stock exchange designated market maker dmm contract to identify causal effects of dmm participation on equilibrium market outcomes we document that contractual features that enhance dmm participation are associated with increased depth narrower bid ask spreads and higher rates of price improvement with most of the improvements attributable to increases in liquidity provision on markets other than the nyse these results cannot be attributed to the mechanical effects of the contractual changes and support the interpretation that market making is characterized by strategic complementarity received october 7 2017 editorial decision december 10 2018 by editor itay goldstein

privatization labor and social safety nets privatization promotes economic efficiency and growth thereby reinforcing macroeconomic adjustment in the short run however it can lead to job losses and wage cuts for workers this paper discusses these adverse impacts of privatization in terms of various methods of privatization and surveys the existing empirical evidence it finds that public sales and auctions can have stronger negative effects on workers but maximize the government s revenue policymakers options for mitigating the social impact of privatization are surveyed copyright 2001 by blackwell publishers ltd

semiparametric versus parametric classification models an application to direct marketing in this paper we are concerned with estimation of a classification model using semiparametric and parametric methods benefits and limitations of semiparametric models in general and of manski s maximum score method in particular are discussed the maximum score method yields consistent estimates under very weak distributional assumptions the maximum score method can very easily be used in situations where it is mare serious to make one kind of classification error than another in this paper we use a so called threshold crossing model to discriminate between credit card holders and nonholders the estimated parameters of the logit model differ significantly from the estimates of maximum score given an loss function maximum score performs better than the logit model

privatisation and x inefficiency a bargaining approach the usual analysis of privatization and x inefficiency uses agency theory to model managerial effort the authors model worker effort as determined by a bargain between firms and workers workers dislike effort because it lowers utility firms prefer high effort because it raises productivity public sector firms are assumed to be social welfare maximizers and therefore compared to private sector firms they bargain lower effort levels since they have the interests of consumers and workers at heart the authors model predicts that under certain conditions privatization should raise effort and so lower x inefficiency and that wages may increase or decrease copyright 1995 by blackwell publishing ltd

an alternative explanation for lower repeat rates after promotion purchases several authors have observed that average repeat rates are lower after a promotion purchase one interpretation of this result is that a media coupon or cents off promotion undermines the consumer

the use of linear logit models in marketing research the author discusses the use of the linear logit model in marketing research a brief review of the linear logit model focuses on model formulation estimation evaluation and inference procedures

make take structure and market quality evidence from the u s options markets we examine the make take structure which compensates liquidity suppliers and charges liquidity demanders in the options markets where it competes with a traditional structure that uses payments for order flow using the introduction of the make take structure as an event we find that execution costs including fees for liquidity demanders decline after the event for the affected options that the make take structure encourages market makers to improve quoted prices and that brokers change their routing behavior to include fees in the routing decision the decline in execution costs is consistent with the benefits of the increased quote competition from the make take structure prevailing over the fees the structure charges to liquidity demanders this paper was accepted by wei jiang finance

a comparison of the predictive validity of procedures for analyzing binary data some approaches for analyzing binary data are briefly described and compared the results of two empirical investigations in the context of assessing consumer preferences and a simulation study yield some interesting findings the article concludes with some directions for future research in this area

high frequency trading and end of day price dislocation abstract we show that the presence of high frequency trading hft has significantly mitigated the frequency and severity of end of day price dislocation the effect of hft is more pronounced on days when end of day price dislocation is more likely to be the result of market manipulation moreover the effect of hft is more pronounced than the role of trading rules surveillance enforcement and legal conditions in curtailing the frequency and severity of end of day price dislocation we show our findings are robust to different proxies of the start of hft by trade size cancellation of orders and co location

using propensity matching estimators to evaluate the impact of privatization on wages whether the transfer of ownership rights to the private sector leads to a decline or increase in wage growth is theoretically ambiguous given that the outcome depends on the uncertain interaction between firms and workers using propensity matching techniques this article investigates the effects of privatization on wages in the portuguese banking industry the empirical results obtained from quadros de pessoal for the period between 1989 and 1997 generally show a negative positive short run long run effect of privatization on relative wage growth for both men and women retained in the privatized firms moreover the results show that the most educated and experienced oldest workers as well as those in the high skill occupational categories were more likely to experience a negative wage effect

how do social networks contribute to wage inequality insights from an agent based analysis based on a closed agent based macroeconomic simulation model eurace unibi this article analyzes whether the density of social networks influences via referrals the residual wage inequality in different skill groups it is shown that an increase in network density leads to a polarization of firms and a concentration of workers with high specific skills at firms with high productivities and wages thereby enlarging within group wage inequality but not between group wage inequality

predictive testing of consumer choice models not subject to independence of irrelevant alternatives the probabilistic modeling of the relationship between objective or perceived characteristics of multiattribute alternatives and consumer choice is receiving increased attention in marketing and ot

privatization not the only answer abstract governments in many developing countries created state owned enterprises soes to produce goods or provide services the private sector seemed unwilling or unable to offer in many cases soes have turned out to be problem children at best inefficient and at worst unable to fulfill their original functions now the recommended solution to the problem of state owned enterprises is privatization but privatization is no more a solution to the problems of soes than soes were a solution to the problems they were created to solve the problem of soes is not ownership but rather a lack of explicit goals and objectives and an absence of organization cultures and systems that support and encourage fulfillment of those goals and objectives in some circumstances privatization may aid in fulfillment of an enterprise s goals and objectives because of the culture and systems it fosters in other cases not

substitution and dropout bias in social experiments a study of an influential social experiment this paper considers the interpretation of evidence from social experiments when persons randomized out of a program being evaluated have good substitutes for it and when persons randomized into a program drop out to pursue better alternatives using data from an experimental evaluation of a classroom training program we document the empirical importance of control group substitution and treatment group dropping out evidence that one program is ineffective relative to close substitutes is not evidence that the type of service provided by all of the programs is ineffective although that is the way experimental evidence is often interpreted

comment testing the homogeneity of segments for estimating disaggregate choice models comment to gensch d h 1984 targeting the switchable industrial customer marketing sci 3 winter 41 54

market conditions fragility and the economics of market making abstract using audit trail data from the toronto stock exchange we find that market makers scale back in unison when market conditions are unfavorable which contributes to covariation in liquidity supply both within and across stocks market conditions lower aggregate participation via their impact on trading profits and risk contrary to regulatory view higher stock volatility is associated with more participation and higher profits even after controlling for other market conditions including stock volume fragility concerns extend to larger stocks and to active participants the designated market maker mitigates periodic illiquidity created by synchronous withdrawal of market makers in large and small stocks