labor force participation interest rate shocks and unemployment dynamics in emerging economies abstract emerging economies emes have highly volatile unemployment and real wages standard models with interest rate shocks can generate higher unemployment volatility but still fall quantitatively short of matching the empirical volatility of unemployment a small open economy search model with endogenous participation and self employment a feature of emes generates 90 percent of the volatility of unemployment in the data highly volatile wages and quantitatively consistent cyclical aggregate dynamics amid productivity and interest rate shocks of plausible magnitudes endogenous participation amplifies shocks and plays a critical role in overcoming a key limitation of standard search models for emes

the determinants of trade credit use the case of the tanzanian rice market most small businesses in the developing economies suffer from a lack of access to formal external finance one important alternative source of finance for these entrepreneurs is trade credit applying a unique data set containing data on specific trade relations between rice wholesalers and rice retailers in tanzania we analyse the determinants of trade credit demand and supply in this market using a simultaneous equation modelling approach the analysis shows that while the demand for trade credit is primarily determined by the extent to which retailers need external funds supply is mainly driven by wholesalers incentives to attract and keep clients moreover wholesalers willingness to provide credit increases if they have better information about the possibility that the customer will fail to repay the credit

asymmetric changes in australia s small business loan rate this paper examines the dynamic asymmetric relationship between changes in the reserve bank of australia s rba cash rate and the interest rate for small business loans using monthly data 1990 2011 the results provide support for the rockets and feathers hypothesis with respect to both the amount and adjustment asymmetries while the rba s rate rises exert a one to one and instantaneous impact on the loan rate its rate cuts are only slowly and partially passed onto small businesses with a delay of 1 2 months the results also suggest that the recent global financial crisis increased the cost of borrowing for small businesses in australia by 2 21 these findings indicate that small businesses have limited time to respond to interest rate rises and not provided with the full benefit of interest rate decreases addressing this problem should ease the interest rate burden for small businesses and enhance their contribution to the economy

introducing new futures contracts reinforcement versus cannibalism abstract in order to assure survival futures exchanges around the world are in constant search of new futures contracts that will generate a profitable level of trading volume introducing new futures contracts may increase or decrease the volume for those contracts already listed using a multi product hedging model in which the perspective has been shifted from portfolio to exchange management we study these effects using data from two exchanges that differ regarding assets traded and market liquidity amsterdam exchanges versus chicago board of trade we show the usefulness of the proposed method the method may also be used to evaluate the benefits for exchanges that plan to internationalize their activities by merging with another exchange or by cross listing other exchanges futures contracts

price volatility and margin requirements in foreign exchange futures markets abstract recent increased volatility in financial markets has stimulated interest in how minimum margin requirements are determined in financial futures contracts and the effects of changing margins on price volatility this paper examines the major foreign currencies traded on the international monetary mart applying a theoretical basis of margins as security deposits the paper finds that the most important factor for determining the default probability of a contract price volatility is the most important determinant of margins this argues against government replacement of exchanges in the margin setting role in addition no consistent relationship is found between margin changes and price volatility which indicates the inability of the government to alter trading behavior by adjusting margin levels

pure public goods and income redistribution in a federation with decentralized leadership and imperfect labor mobility abstract we examine the non cooperative provision of a pure public good by regional governments in a federation similar to the european union where regional governments are stackelberg leaders and the central government is a stackelberg follower a federation with decentralized leadership the center makes interregional income transfers after it observes the contributions to the pure public good imperfectly mobile workers react to regional and central governments policies by establishing residence in their most preferred region despite the degree of labor mobility we show that the pure public good and interregional transfers are generally allocated efficiently in a federation with decentralized leadership

financial and legal constraints to growth does firm size matter using a unique firm level survey database covering 54 countries we investigate the effect of financial legal and corruption problems on firms growth rates whether these factors constrain growth depends on firm size it is consistently the smallest firms that are most constrained financial and institutional development weakens the constraining effects of financial legal and corruption obstacles and it is again the small firms that benefit the most there is only a weak relation between firms perception of the quality of the courts in their country and firm growth we also provide evidence that the corruption of bank officials constrains firm growth

a more complete conceptual framework for sme finance abstract we propose a more complete conceptual framework for analysis of sme credit availability issues in this framework lending technologies are the key conduit through which government policies and national financial structures affect credit availability we emphasize a causal chain from policy to financial structures which affect the feasibility and profitability of different lending technologies these technologies in turn have important effects on sme credit availability financial structures include the presence of different financial institution types and the conditions under which they operate lending technologies include several transactions technologies plus relationship lending we argue that the framework implicit in most of the literature is oversimplified neglects key elements of the chain and often yields misleading conclusions a common oversimplification is the treatment of transactions technologies as a homogeneous group unsuitable for serving informationally opaque smes and a frequent misleading conclusion is that large institutions are disadvantaged in lending to opaque smes

asymmetric tax competition abstract the paper analyzes nash equilibrium when two jurisdictions set tax rates on a tax base which is mobile between them population differences imply tax differences the smaller jurisdiction levies a lower tax rate in equilibrium and its residents are better off than those in the larger jurisdiction the nash equilibrium is inefficient if the two jurisdictions merged the resulting allocation would be efficient however if differences in population are great enough residents of the small jurisdiction would be made worse off by such a merger

shared accountability and partial decentralization in local public good provision abstract recent decentralization reforms in developing countries have often lead to the coexistence of multiple tiers of government in given policy areas triggering new accountability issues this paper provides a novel theoretical treatment of the efficiency consequences of such partial expenditure decentralization it develops a political agency model in which two levels of government are involved in the provision of a local public good with voters imperfectly informed about each government s contribution to the public good a central result of the model is that partial decentralization is desirable only if the benefits of vertical complementarity in public good provision outweigh the costs of reduced accountability which result from detrimental vertical strategic interactions operating through the electoral process through variants of the model the interplay between decentralization and democratization is analyzed from a positive point of view the model predicts a relationship between electoral incentives and equilibrium decentralization

african smes networks and manufacturing performance abstract this paper examines the role of private support institutions in determining small and medium enterprise smes growth and performance in sub saharan africa ssa it finds that smes in ssa get around market failures and lack of formal institutions by creating private governance systems in the form of long term business relationships and tight ethnically based business networks there are important links between these informal governance institutions and sme performance networks raise the performance of insiders and in the sparse business environments of the ssa region have attendant negative consequences for market participation of outsiders such as indigenous african smes this is indicated through the determinants of access to supplier credit policy interventions will be needed to improve the platform for relation based governance mechanisms and to address the exclusionary effects of tight networks

are good or bad borrowers discouraged from applying for loans evidence from us small business credit markets this paper takes the concept of a discouraged borrower originally formulated by kon and storey kon y storey d j 2003 a theory of discouraged borrowers small business economics 21 37 49 and examines whether discouragement is an efficient self rationing mechanism using us data it finds riskier borrowers have higher probabilities of discouragement which increase with longer financial relationships suggesting discouragement is an efficient self rationing mechanism it also finds low risk borrowers are less likely to be discouraged in concentrated markets than in competitive markets and that in concentrated markets high risk borrowers are more likely to be discouraged the longer their financial relationships we conclude discouragement is more efficient in concentrated than in competitive markets

real dollar exchange rate under the bretton woods and floating exchange rate regimes abstract the focus of the paper is on real exchange rates for the dollar over the period 1957 to 1985 most such exchange rates followed an almost steplike pattern showing relatively little movement in the late 1950s and 1960s falling abruptly and then remaining low in the 1970s and finally in the 1980s rising back to levels close to those that prevailed initially contrary to much recent commentary therefore the period that appears different is not the last five years but the decade that preceded them an important factor underlying this pattern of exchange rate movement according to results presented in the paper was the behavior of monetary policy and hence inflation in the united states what remains to be established is the precise mechanism linking money and real exchange rates and the relative strength of those links

futures price variability a test of maturity and volume effects a number of previous studies have examined the contemporaneous relation between asset price variability and volume traded for example clark 1973 cornell 1981 and tauchen and pitts 1983 have investigated this relation for futures markets and epps and epps 1976 harris 1984a 1984b and smirlock and starks 1984 for the stock market underlying this empirical research is a theoretical framework that suggests that price variability or the absolute change in prices and volume traded should be positively correlated according to this theoretical framework the so called mixture of distributions hypothesis mdh 1 the correlation between price variability and volume should be positive because of joint dependence on a common directing variable or event this study uses contract disaggregated data on futures prices to obtain evidence on the relation between price variability and volume of trading strong positive contemporaneous correlations between trading volume and price volatility are documented consistent with the mixture of distributions hypothesis it is concluded that maturity is not a suitable surrogate for the common directing variable specifically while maturity has a strong effect on volume no such relation is found for price variability finally while in the majority of cases price variability and trading volume are contemporaneously correlated there are a significant number of cases in which a sequential relation appears to be present an earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1984 meeting of the european finance association in manchester england and at southern methodist university the university of wisconsin madison duke university mcgill university and the university of toronto we wish to thank the seminar participants and an anonymous referee from this journal for constructive comments and criticism all remaining errors are of course our responsibility we would also like to thank the columbia center for the study of futures markets and the interactive data corp for providing some of the data used in the study 1 see clark 1973 and harris 1984a 1984b

access to finance for innovative smes since the financial crisis in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis there has been increased focus on access to finance for small firms research from before the crisis suggested that it was harder for innovative firms to access finance yet no research has considered the differential effect of the crisis on innovative firms this paper addresses this gap using a dataset of over 10 000 uk sme employers we find that innovative firms are more likely to be turned down for finance than other firms and this worsened significantly in the crisis however regressions controlling for a host of firm characteristics show that the worsening in general credit conditions has been more pronounced for non innovative firms with the exception of absolute credit rationing which still remains more severe for innovative firms the results suggest that there are two issues in the financial system the first is a structural problem which restricts access to finance for innovative firms the second is a cyclical problem has been caused by the financial crisis and has impacted relatively more severely on non innovative firms

bailouts in federations is a hard budget constraint always best this article analyses hard and soft budget constraints in a federation where there is a moral hazard problem between the central and the regional governments regional governments can avoid a bailout from the center by exerting costly effort in this setting a hard budget constraint is not always optimal because it can provide excessive incentives for high effort and thus discourage investment that is socially efficient thus a hard budget constraint can imply the opposite kind of inefficiency that emerges under a soft budget constraint where the common pool problem can give rise to inefficiently low effort and overinvestment

decentralisation and accountability in infrastructure delivery in developing countries many developing countries are experimenting with decentralisation of public service delivery to elected local governments instead of bureaucrats appointed by a central government we study the resulting implications in a theoretical model in which the central government is uninformed about local need and unable to monitor service allocations bureaucrats charge bribes for services as monopoly providers resulting in underprovision of services especially for the poor local governments are directly responsive to their citizens needs but may be subject to capture by elites effects of decentralisation on service volumes efficiency and equity are analysed under different financing arrangements for local governments the theme of the 2004 world development report is summarised by its opening paragraph too often services fail poor people in access in quantity in quality but the fact that there are strong examples where services do work means governments and citizens can do better how by putting poor people at the center of service provision by enabling them to monitor and discipline service providers by amplifying their voice in policymaking and by strengthening the incentives for providers to serve the poor problems of accountability associated with traditional modes of delivery involving centralised bureaucracies include cost padding service diversion limited responsiveness to local needs limited access and high prices charged especially to the poor 1 many developing countries have thus begun to experiment with initiatives to increase accountability of service providers by providing greater control rights to citizen groups these include decentralisation of service delivery to local governments community participation direct transfers to households and contracting out delivery to private providers and ngos the programmes include a wide range of infrastructure services water sanitation electricity telecommunications roads and social services education health and welfare programmes countries where such trends have gathered

too big or too small a synthetic view of the commitment problem of interregional transfers abstract there is a growing body of literature on the commitment problem of interregional transfers the problem occurs because of an ex post bailout by a central government leading to ex ante adverse incentive consequences for a local government however different models have yielded different economic consequences the local government may be too large overspending and or overborrowing or it may be too small raising less of its own revenue in the presence of interregional spillovers the equilibrium may yield a pareto efficient outcome the present paper aims to synthesize these models developing a simple decentralized leadership model a critical question concerns what decision is made ex ante by the local government namely public expenditure or tax collection with the remaining policy instrument being residual adjusted by ex post transfers we discuss how different scenarios affect the equilibrium outcome

decentralization of governance and development all around the world in matters of governance decentralization is the rage even apart from the widely debated issues of subsidiarity and devolution in the european union and states rights in the united states decentralization has been at the center stage of policy experiments in the last two decades in a large number of developing and transition economies in latin america africa and asia the world bank for example has embraced it as one of the major governance reforms on its agenda for example world bank 2000 burki perry and dillinger 1999 take also the examples of the two largest countries of the world china and india decentralization has been regarded as the major institutional framework for the phenomenal industrial growth in the last two decades in china taking place largely in the nonstate nonprivate sector india ushered in a landmark constitutional reform in favor of decentralization around the same time it launched a major program of economic reform in the early 1990s on account of its many failures the centralized state everywhere has lost a great deal of legitimacy and decentralization is widely believed to promise a range of benee ts it is often suggested as a way of reducing the role of the state in general by fragmenting central authority and introducing more intergovernmental competition and checks and balances it is viewed as a way to make government more responsive and efe cient technological changes have also made it somewhat easier than before to provide public services like electricity and water supply relatively efe ciently in smaller market areas and the lower levels of government have now a greater ability to handle certain tasks in a world of rampant ethnic cone icts and separatist movements decentralization is also regarded as a way of diffusing social and political tensions and ensuring local cultural and political autonomy these potential benee ts of decentralization have attracted a very diverse range

transitioning entrepreneurs from informal to formal markets abstract informal markets encompass economic activity that occurs outside of formal regulations and is rather guided by informal norms values and understandings a growing stream of research explores the transition of entrepreneurs from informal to formal markets past research appears to portray the transition to formality as a strategic choice made by entrepreneurs and to center on regulatory concerns such as acquiring licenses registering the business and paying taxes such an approach to studying formalization however may not adequately account for the influence of informal institutions on such a transition and ignores the facilitating role often played by institutional intermediaries a type of institutional entrepreneur thus the purpose of this study is to explore a more comprehensive view of formalization in which an institutional intermediary seeks to help small producers transition from selling their goods in informal markets where formal regulations and infrastructures do not exist or are severely underdeveloped to formal markets where developed formal regulations and infrastructures have engendered stronger competition and heightened quality and efficiency standards more specifically we examined the process by which an ngo attempted to transition approximately 1 800 dairy farmers in rural nicaragua from informal to formal markets our results suggest that the success of formalization efforts by institutional intermediaries hinges on a series of inter related tactics aimed at providing institutional scaffolding to encourage and facilitate informal entrepreneurs participation in formal markets

historical financing of small and medium size enterprises we focus on the economies of the north atlantic core during the 19th and early 20th centuries and find that an impressive variety of local financial institutions emerged to supply the needs of smes wherever there was sufficient demand for their services although these intermediaries had significant weaknesses they were able to tap into local information networks and so extend credit to firms that were too young or small to secure funds from large regional or national institutions in addition by raising the return to savings for local households they helped to mobilize significant new resources for economic development

conflicts and domestic bank lending recent studies of financial development have shown that the quality of institutions is an important determinant of international financial flows to a country our paper contributes to this literature by examining and comparing the effects of internal conflict and terrorism on domestic credits extended to the private sector by banks in developing countries we use a panel dataset for 125 developing countries over the 1984 2012 period to explore the relationship between political instability and bank lending internal conflict negatively affects domestic bank credit to the private sector and the extent of this impact depends on the degree of ethnic fractionalization the impact of terrorism however is not statistically robust our findings are also relevant for the literature that investigates the costs of conflict

an empirical assessment of the export financial constraint relationship how different are small and medium enterprises we analyze the financial constraint export relationship in a framework that is consistent with stylized features of data the analysis accounts for whether firms need loans or have sufficient capital and studies the use of bank loans quantity of finance and availability of overdraft facilities flexibility of finance we develop a two stage estimation procedure that uses an equation of bank financing in the first stage and an export equation in the second we find that export participation extensive margin and the share of exports in total sales intensive margin increase with the availability of overdraft facilities particularly so for smes with loan needs the percentage of foreign ownership iso certification and operation in manufacturing sector are also significant and positively associated with a firm s export participation and firm s share of exports in total sales the main results are robust to a battery of econometric specifications and statistical tests applied on the firm level data from our sample countries the finding of a large economic significance of the overdraft facility variable is consistent with a growing concern from smes that the regulatory response to the global financial crisis has forced banks to tighten risk management thereby raising the rejection rates of overdraft and loan applications from smes for smes in developing countries and emerging markets the improvement of alternative financing forms and supportive government interventions has become ever more challenging

uk bank services for small business how competitive is the market abstract this study is the first to employ an econometric model to examine the pricing behaviour of british financial institutions with respect to key bank products services offered to small and medium sized enterprises smes including current accounts investment accounts business loans and mortgages a mean group approach is used on a panel of monthly data to gauge individual banks reactions to identify factors influencing the setting of deposit and loan rates and to assess the competitive structure that best describes the uks sme banking market though the results should be interpreted with caution the empirical evidence is suggestive of a complex oligopoly policies directed at improving information and making it easier for small businesses to change banks accounts would reduce inertia and improve competition among financial institutions

collectivism and corruption in commercial loan production how to break the curse recent research suggests that collectivism breeds corruption in bank lending this finding together with the stickiness of culture poses a direct challenge to economic growth in collectivist societies in this paper we address this grim outlook by examining the types of firms that are susceptible to the detrimental effect of collectivism on lending integrity and the formal institutions that can help alleviate such effect we find that the adverse effect of collectivism on bank corruption is more severe in small and medium sized firms privately owned firms and non exporting firms while it is considerably weaker in countries with more effective private monitoring a higher lower fraction of foreign owned government owned banks a more competitive banking sector better information sharing and stronger legal and political institutions our findings are robust to using alternative measures of collectivism and alternative dependent variables these results highlight how firm level characteristics and formal institutions interact with collectivism in affecting firms access to bank credit

tax competition in a fiscal union with decentralized leadership this paper examines capital tax competition in the presence of an interstate transfer policy without federal commitment lack of commitment implies that local tax policy is chosen prior to federal transfers the paper s main result is that ex post federal policy neutralizes horizontal fiscal externalities insulating tax policy from capital mobility federal policy however introduces a new source of inefficiency unrelated to tax competition specifically ex post transfer payments prove to be equivalent to an interstate revenue sharing system which may render federal intervention in the presence of fiscal externalities welfare deteriorating relative to tax competition

the predictive power of the business and bank sentiment of firms a high dimensional granger causality approach we study the predictive power of industry specific economic sentiment indicators for future macro economic developments in addition to the sentiment of firms towards their own business situation we study their sentiment with respect to the banking sector their main credit providers the use of industry specific sentiment indicators results in a high dimensional forecasting problem to identify the most predictive industries we present a bootstrap granger causality test based on the adaptive lasso this test is more powerful than the standard wald test in such high dimensional settings forecast accuracy is improved by using only the most predictive industries rather than all industries

financing constraints on the size distribution of industrial firms the chinese experience abstractwe investigate whether financing constraints affect the size distribution of chinese industrial firms from 1998 to 2007 although the firm size distribution does not follow zipf distribution in china it is approaching zipf distribution over time in general financing constraints have a robustly negative effect on the size distribution of firms furthermore firms in western china grow significantly more equally after controlling for financing constraints however the effect of financing constraints in central china is significantly negative and the effect of financing constraints on firm size distribution in eastern china is insignificant we thus expect a non linear relationship between financing constraints and firm size distribution

nash equilibria in models of fiscal competition abstract this paper analyzes nash equilibria in a simple model of an economy with jurisdictions engaging in fiscal competition small number nash equilibria in which tax rates are the strategic variables are shown not to coincide with nash equilibria in which public expenditure levels are the strategic variables

the economics of small business finance the roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle abstract this article examines the economics of financing small business in private equity and debt markets firms are viewed through a financial growth cycle paradigm in which different capital structures are optimal at different points in the cycle we show the sources of small business finance and how capital structure varies with firm size and age the interconnectedness of small firm finance is discussed along with the impact of the macroeconomic environment we also analyze a number of research and policy issues review the literature and suggest topics for future research

financial inclusion and poverty a tale of forty five thousand households abstractusing a new nationally representative survey data covering approximately 45 000 indian households we examine the effects of financial inclusion on poverty we construct a multidimensional

a theory of interregional tax competition a general equilibrium model is constructed to study tax competition where local governments compete for capital by holding down property tax rates and public expenditure levels an exact definition of tax competition is provided and both the existence and nonexistence of tax competition are shown to be theoretically possible it is argued however that tax competition must occur under empirically reasonable conditions inefficiency in public production is also explicitly modeled the amount of capital used to produce a given level of public service output is shown to be greater than that which is required to minimize costs evaluated at the prices facing private firms

regional state capacity and the optimal degree of fiscal decentralization abstract we study the optimal degree of fiscal decentralization in a federation regional governments are characterized by their abilities to deliver public goods administrative capacity and to raise tax revenues fiscal capacity two regimes are compared on efficiency grounds under partial decentralization regional governments rely on central bailouts to complete local projects in financing needs under full decentralization marginal financing is achieved via local capital taxes we show that the presence of sufficiently low levels of administrative capacity is a necessary condition for full decentralization dominance this condition may also be sufficient depending on the projects characteristics some extensions are presented

finance firm size and growth the authors examine whether financial development boosts the growth of small firms more than large firms and hence provides information on the mechanisms through which financial development fosters aggregate economic growth they define an industry s technological firm size as the firm size implied by industrial specific production technologies including capital intensities and scale economies using cross industry cross country data the results indicate that financial development exerts a disproportionately large effect on the growth of industries that are technologically more dependent on small firms this suggests that financial development accelerates economic growth by removing growth constraints on small firms and also implies that financial development has sectoral as well as aggregate growth ramifications

psychometrics as a tool to improve credit information this paper studies the use of psychometric tests designed by the entrepreneurial finance lab efl as a tool to screen out high credit risk and potentially increase access to credit for small business owners in peru we compare repayment behavior patterns across entrepreneurs who were offered a loan based on the traditional credit scoring method versus the efl tool we find that the psychometric test can lower the risk of the loan portfolio when used as a secondary screening mechanism for already banked entrepreneurs that is those with a credit history the efl tool can also allow lenders to offer credit to some unbanked entrepreneurs that is those without a credit history who were rejected based on their traditional credit scores without increasing the risk of the portfolio

estimates of gender differences in firm s access to credit in sub saharan africa based on firm level data from 16 sub saharan african countries we show how three different measures of credit constraints lead to three different estimates of gender differences in manufacturing firms credit situation using a perception based credit constraint measure female owned firms appear relatively more constrained than male owned firms using formal financial access data we find no gender effect finally using direct information on credit constraints male owned small firms appear disadvantaged furthermore we show a strong size gradient in the gender gap for the two measures for which we find significant gender differences

the influence of financial and legal institutions on firm size abstract theory does not predict an unambiguous relationship between a country s financial and legal institutions and firm size using data on the largest industrial firms for 44 countries we find that firm size is positively related to financial intermediary development the efficiency of the legal system and property rights protection we do not find any evidence that firms are larger in order to internalize the functions of the banking system or to compensate for the general inefficiency of the legal system

financing new venture exporters this paper investigates the demand for and access to financing for young small and medium sized enterprises smes the work compares theoretically and empirically two sets of new firms those that export and those that do not export as to the frequency with which they seek and obtain external financing the work hypothesizes that new growth firms and new exporter firms are especially likely to seek external financing yet less likely to obtain financing empirical findings confirm these expectations demonstrating that young growth firms were more likely than non growth firms to seek all forms of capital and exporters were particularly likely to apply for equity and trade credit commercial lenders were less likely to approve loan applications from early stage growth firms and especially so for applications from young growth oriented sme exporters the implications of these results for research and public policy are discussed

property rights and finance which is the tighter constraint on private sector investment weak property rights or limited access to external finance from a survey of new firms in post communist countries we find that weak property rights discourage firms from reinvesting their profits even when bank loans are available where property rights are relatively strong firms reinvest their profits where they are relatively weak entrepreneurs do not want to invest from retained earnings

understanding the soft budget constraint we propose a clarification of the notion of a soft budget constraint a concept widely used in the analysis of socialist transitional and market economies our interpretation is broad enough to embrace most existing approaches to soft budget constraint phenomena and provides a classification of their causes and consequences in light of this interpretation we then review the theoretical literature on the subject and compare it with those on other dynamic commitment problems in economics

state capacity conflict and development the absence of state capacities to raise revenue and to support markets is a key factor in explaining the persistence of weak states this paper reports on an ongoing project to investigate the incentive to invest in such capacities the paper sets out a simple analytical structure in which state capacities are modeled as forward looking investments by government the approach highlights some determinants of state building including the risk of external or internal conflict the degree of political instability and dependence on natural resources throughout we link these state capacity investments to patterns of development and growth

dominant real exchange rate movements abstract principal component analysis is used to investigate two types of questions about the behavior of real exchange rates first what group of currencies display the same empirical regularities can we attribute dominant movements in real exchange rates to a specific country e g the united states or a group of countries second does the prevailing nominal exchange rate regime affect the long run properties of real exchange rates in the empirical analysis we use real exchange rates between 15 industrial countries for the sample period 1957 to 1986 the standard principal component analysis is modified such that results are independent of the numeraire currency

access to credit by firms in sub saharan africa how relevant is gender the literature on the determinants of firms financing constraints has paid little attention to gender as a determinant of access to finance using data for 34 342 firms from 90 developing countries the paper analyzes the determinants of firms financing constraints and assesses whether female owned firms are more financially constrained than male owned businesses the results show that female owned firms in sub saharan africa are more likely to be financially constrained than male owned firms but there is no gender gap in other developing regions the gender gap in sub saharan africa is robust to variations in specifications and econometric estimation procedures

federalism and the soft budget constraint the government s incentives to bail out inefficient projects are determined by the trade off between political benefits and economic costs the latter depending on the decentralization of government two effects of federalism are derived first fiscal competition among local governments under factor mobility increases the opportunity costs of bailout and thus serves as a commitment device the competition effect second monetary centralization together with fiscal decentralization induces a conflict of interests and thus may harden budget constraints and reduce inflation the checks and balance effect the authors analysis is used to interpret china s recent experience of transition to a market economy copyright 1998 by american economic association

a stochastic frontier approach to modelling financial constraints in firms an application to india we propose the use of stochastic frontier approach to modelling financial constraints of firms the main advantage of the stochastic frontier approach over the stylised approaches that use pooled ols or fixed effects panel regression models is that we can not only decide whether or not the average firm is financially constrained but also estimate a measure of the degree of the constraint for each firm and for each time period and also the marginal impact of firm characteristics on this measure we then apply the stochastic frontier approach to a panel of indian manufacturing firms for the 1997 2006 period in our application we highlight and discuss the aforementioned advantages while also demonstrating that the stochastic frontier approach generates regression estimates that are consistent with the stylised intuition found in the literature on financial constraint and the wider literature on the indian credit capital market

how do local governments decide on public policy in fiscal federalism tax vs expenditure optimization previous literature widely assumes that taxes are optimized in local public flnance while expenditures adjust residually this paper endogenizes the choice of the optimization variable in particular it analyzes how federal policy toward local governments in uences the way local governments decide on public policy unlike the presumption the paper shows that local governments may choose to optimize over expenditures the result most notably prevails when federal policy subsidizes local flscal efiort the results ofier a new perspective of the e ciency implications of federal policy toward local governments and thereby enable a more precise characterization of local government behavior in flscal federalism

emission regulation of markets with sluggish supply structures i examine regulation in the presence of convex investment costs and technology specific capacity stocks announcement of future emission taxes reduces current emissions unless fossil fuels are scarce in which case the effect is ambiguous substantial future emission reductions require action today because it takes time to build up clean production capacity and phase out dirty capacity the pigou tax must be coupled with sector specific investment taxes or subsidies to induce the socially optimal trajectory if the private discount rate differs from the social discount rate if such investment taxes or subsidies are unavailable a time inconsistent second best alternative may be to tax emissions above the pigouvian level during the transition phase the theory is complemented with a stylized numerical model of the us electricity market

information sharing in credit markets we present a model with adverse selection where information sharing between lenders arises endogenously lenders incentives to share information about borrowers are positively related to the mobility and heterogeneity of borrowers to the size of the credit market and to advances in information technology such incentives are instead reduced by the fear of competition from potential entrants in addition information sharing increases the volume of lending when adverse selection is so severe that safe borrowers drop out of the market these predictions are supported by international and historical evidence in the context of the consumer credit market a large body of literature on credit markets has shown that asymmetric information may prevent the efficient allocation of lending leading to credit rationing e g jaffee and russell 1976 stiglitz and weiss 1981 or to a wedge between lending and borrowing rates e g king 1986 in this literature informational asymmetries are taken to be exogenous lenders fail to observe some relevant characteristic or action of potential borrowers and have no way of learning about it in some countries however lenders can improve their knowledge about new customers by exchanging information with other lenders through information brokers generally known as credit bureaus the latter collect file and distribute the information voluntarily supplied by their members and operate on the principle of reciprocity lenders who do not provide data are denied access to the bureau s files in other countries instead these institutions do not exist the literature offers no guide to identify the factors that lead to endogenous communication between lenders this paper is an attempt to fill the gap information sharing is important for a number of reasons it may increase the degree of competitiveness within credit markets vives 1990 improve

the cost of growth small firms and the pricing of bank loans drawing upon data from the 2007 uk survey of sme finance the current analysis is concerned with the extent to which growth firms are discriminated on price in loan markets or more simply the extent to which growth firms pay more for credit given relatively small turndown rates historically vos et al in j bank finance 31 9 2648 2672 2007 higher credit prices may be a more substantial growth constraint than the access to finance issues that have dominated the academic literature to date to this end we observe inter alia that firms who have recorded recent high growth are more likely to pay higher interest rates for the loan they obtained moreover small sized firms who intend to grow through the introduction of new products exhibit a higher probability of paying more for credit than their peers finally acknowledging that banks are not risk funders we discuss the potential policy implications of these findings

attitudes towards women s career advancement in latin america the moderating impact of perceived company international proactiveness while companies operating in latin america have witnessed increased female leadership participation the region remains characterized by traditional gender role attitudes this juxtaposition of traditional machismo attitudes towards women along with progress in women s leadership participation make this setting ideal for examining a topic of continued worldwide debate women s career advancement this study examines attitudes towards the career advancement of women a historically marginalized group in latin america building on the extant literature we test the negative association between traditional gender role orientations and attitudes towards women s career advancement both directly and via a mediated relationship through acceptance of women in the workplace we then theoretically and empirically extend this literature by examining an important context related moderator a company s international proactiveness which we contend serves as a mechanism for keeping traditional machismo attitudes from manifesting we examine these relationships within a sample of 973 respondents within the latin american countries of argentina bolivia brazil chile colombia dominican republic ecuador mexico panama peru and venezuela our findings support our hypotheses and provide practical insight into the important yet generally not considered effects of a company s internationalization efforts on attitudes towards the career advancement of women

regional financial development and bank competition effects on firms growth fernandez de guevara j and maudos j regional financial development and bank competition effects on firms growth regional studies this paper analyses the effect of regional financial development and bank competition on firms growth using the spanish provinces as a testing ground the results show that firms in industries with a greater dependence on external finance grow faster in more financially developed provinces the results also show that bank monopoly power has an inverted u effect on firms growth suggesting that market power has its highest effect at intermediate values the effect is heterogeneous among firms according to the financial dependence of the industry to which they belong this result is consistent with the literature on relationship banking which argues that bank competition can have a negative effect on the availability of finance for more informationally opaque firms fernandez de guevara j et maudos j le developpement financier regional et la concurrence bancaire l imp

who are russia s entrepreneurs social scientists studying entrepreneurship have emphasized three distinct sets of variables the institutional environment sociological variables and personal and psychological characteristics we are conducting surveys in five large developing and transition economies to better understand entrepreneurship in this short paper using over 2 000 interviews from a pilot study in russia we find evidence that the three sets of variables matter perceptions of the local institutional environment social network effects and individual characteristics are all important in determining entrepreneurial behavior jel m13 o12 p12

distributive politics and the costs of centralization this paper studies the choice between centralization and decentralization of fiscal policy in a political economy setting with centralization regional delegates vote over agendas comprising sets of region specific projects the outcome is inefficient because the choice of projects is insufficiently sensitive to within region benefits the number of projects funded may be non monotonic in the strength of project externalities the efficiency gains from decentralization and the performance of constitutional rules such as majority voting which may be used to choose between decentralization and centralization are then discussed in this framework weaker externalities and more heterogeneity between regions need not increase the efficiency gain from decentralization

lending competition and credit availability for new firms empirical study with the price cost margin in regional loan markets abstract in this paper i present statistical evidence of the impact of lending competition on credit availability for new firms a discrete time duration analysis with respect to the years from the start up to the first loan approval by a commercial bank or a cooperative bank which is collected from survey data in japan shows that the higher price cost margin pcm of banks which reflects the existence of a quasi rent for a bank improves the credit availability for younger firms additional analysis to detect the regional determinants of the pcm of banks shows that the share of larger banks in each local credit market has a negative and significant impact on the pcm in light of the existing empirical finding that smaller banks are more likely to provide relationship banking these findings provide indirect evidence for the hypothesis that the intensity of relationship banking in each local credit market increases the pcm and this encourages banks to extend a loan to new firms so that they can pre empt the opportunity to establish lending relationships that are expected to yield such quasi rents

bank lending channel in a dual banking system why are islamic banks so responsive we examine the interest rate sensitivity of both deposits and credits at islamic and conventional banks in turkey we find that the bank lending channel is especially operative for islamic banks impulse responses for conventional and islamic banks reveal that islamic bank depositors sensitivity to policy rate changes is substantially larger than that of conventional bank depositors next to heavily dependence on deposit funding we consider that inertia in islamic bank deposit rates impedes these banks to keep those depositors who consider the opportunity cost of monetary policy rates is unbearable on the lending side we obtain similar results implying that tight monetary policy leads to a larger contraction in islamic bank credits this finding is a reflection of the favourable attitude of islamic banks towards small and medium sized enterprise sme financing when similar relationships are analysed for currency and inflation shocks we again find larger responses for islamic banks showing the cyclical nature of sme credits

intergovernmental transfers and fiscal behavior insurance versus aggregate discipline abstract this paper evaluates the trade off between the advantages of risk sharing and the perils of common pool problems in federal fiscal arrangements under the assumption of asymmetric information we evaluate two alternative regimes of intergovernmental transfers in one regime the central government pre commits to a certain level of transfers that compensate vertical fiscal imbalances and provide some limited ex ante insurance in the other regime it accommodates ex post the fiscal needs of the different provinces in this second case full insurance results but the economy is subject to a tragedy of the fiscal commons with excessive subnational spending insufficient local taxation and reduced production of federal public goods we find the range of parameters for which one or the other institutional regime will be preferable the result is a fiscal federalism version of the usual trade off between rules and discretion

growth of firms in developing countries evidence from cote d ivoire the paper presents evidence in support of a particular growth process of firms that is consistent with a missing middle in the size distribution of manufacturing firms in african countries firm growth is explained by size and age effects as a result of efficiency exploiting through scale enlargements and learning but is strongly moderated by reputation effects and formal legitimation which facilitate access to output markets and resources complementing the model with data on growth obstacles as perceived by the owners of firms medium sized firms are found to be strongly hurt by insufficient access to infrastructure and financial services

a political economy theory of partial decentralization we revisit the classic problem of tax competition in the context of federal nations and derive a positive theory of partial decentralization a capital poor median voter chooses to use redistributive capital taxes to provide public goods the expectation of high capital taxes however results in a small capital stock which lowers returns to redistribution the median voter therefore wants to commit to a lower level of capital taxes she does so by setting a partial degree of decentralization in the constitution the equilibrium degree of decentralization balances the positive effect of tax competition on capital taxes with the loss in redistribution that results we show that the degree of decentralization is nonmonotonic in inequality increasing in the redistributive efficiency of public good provision and decreasing in capital productivity when public goods are heterogeneous in their capacity to transfer funds all voters agree that goods with high redistributive capacity should be decentralized

the role of finance in environmental innovation diffusion an evolutionary modeling approach abstract the implementation of climate adaptation and mitigation policies depend on the development of green technologies whose diffusion is constrained by a number of barriers which prevent them to spread broadly and at a fast pace by means of an agent based computational model the paper investigates the macro and micro economic dynamics considering the role of a traditional commercial bank and a state investment bank that explicitly supports green investments simulation results emphasize that green finance matter and that the market diffusion of environmental innovation is more pronounced when the presence of the public investment bank is combined with strong consumers preferences oriented towards environmental quality the relevance of the paper is twofold besides contributing to the literature on the finance innovation nexus by considering the role of climate finance within a complex systems framework it provides a model that can be used as a tool to explore policies to foster environmental innovation diffusion

optimal fiscal federalism in the presence of tax competition abstract this paper models the optimal division of public goods provision between central and regional governments in an economy with interregional tax competition regional provision is inefficient because governments compete for scarce capital by lowering their capital taxes and public good levels to inefficiently low levels on the other hand central provision is inefficient because it is determined by the minimum winning coalition within a legislature the optimal degree to which public good provision should be decentralized depends on a tradeoff between these inefficiencies in our main model complete centralization is never optimal regional governments should supply some public goods

investment in local public services nash equilibrium and social optimum within a two community setting we study the optimal provision of a local public good which is indivisible and generates interjurisdictional spillovers each community has to decide whether or not to invest in this public good the resulting nash equilibrium is compared with an optimal solution based on a benthamian welfare function we then analyze to what extent conditional grants are able to restore optimality when needed c 1997 elsevier science s a

the historical slave trade and firm access to finance in africa access to finance helps explain the link between the historical african slave trade and current gross domestic product we first present mistrust weakened institutions and ethnic fractionalization as plausible historical channels linking the slave trade to modern finance and development we then show i the slave trade is consistently linked to reduced access to the formal and trade credit needed by modern firms ii this shortage particularly reduces capital investment in smaller firms not in business groups and iii the slave trade cannot explain most other business obstacles suggesting that long term societal shocks are exceptionally important for finance received december 16 2014 editorial decision june 29 2017 by editor philip strahan

trade credit and credit rationing asymmetric information between banks and firms can preclude financing of valuable projects trade credit alleviates this problem by incorporating in the lending relation the private information held by suppliers about their customers incentive compatibility conditions prevent collusion between two of the agents e g the buyer and the seller against the third e g the bank consistent with the empirical findings of petersen and rajan 1995 firms without relationships with banks resort more to trade credit and sellers with greater ability to generate cash lows provide more trade credit finally small firms react to monetary contractions by using trade credit consistent with the empirical results of nilsen 1994 article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the politics of 1992 fiscal policy and european integration the internal market in europe will greatly increase the international mobility of resources how will this affect fiscal policy in different countries we consider taxation of capital in a two country model where a democratically chosen government in each country chooses tax policy higher capital mobility changes the politico economic equilibrium in two ways on the one hand it leads to more tax competition between the countries this economic effect tends to lower tax rates in both countries on the other hand it alters voters preferences and makes them elect a different government this political effect offsets the increased tax competition although not completely

commodity prices and bank lending we analyze the transmission of changes in commodity prices to bank lending in a large sample of developing countries a bank level analysis shows that a fall in commodity net export prices is associated with a reduction of bank lending particularly for commodity exporters and during episodes of terms of trade decline we complement this analysis with loan level data from a credit register which allows us to identify the effect of a commodity price shock on the supply of credit controlling for unobserved factors that could drive borrowers credit demand results show that banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit the changes in commodity prices to lending more aggressively jel f30 f34 g21 q02

financing patterns around the world are small firms different using a firm level survey database covering 48 countries we investigate how financial and institutional development affects financing of large and small firms our database is not limited to large firms but includes small and medium size firms and data on a broad spectrum of financing sources including leasing supplier development and informal finance small firms and firms in countries with poor institutions use less external finance especially bank finance protection of property rights increases external financing of small firms significantly more than of large firms mainly due to its effect on bank finance small firms do not use disproportionately more leasing or trade finance compared with larger firms so these financing sources do not compensate for lower access to bank financing of small firms we also find that larger firms more easily expand external financing when they are constrained than small firms finally we find suggestive evidence that the pecking order holds across countries

government intervention and firm investment evidence from international micro data abstract building on the important study by beck et al 2005 we examine how government intervention in firms decision making is related to their investment and sales growth using the unique world bank dataset wbes covering 6500 firms in 70 countries we find strong evidence that the extent of government intervention in firms investment employment sales pricing dividend and merger and acquisition decisions is negatively related to their investment and sales growth with the effect being more profound in foreign owned firms and less significant in state owned firms the empirical results are robust to a series of robustness tests and instrumental variable regressions

pigou tiebout property taxation and the underprovision of local public goods abstract pigou s proposition that the use of distorting taxes rather than neutral head taxes reduces public service levels is examined in this paper a simple model with a national system of competing local governments is utilized to demonstrate that the use of a distorting property tax on mobile capital decreases the level of residential public services the case where public services are an intermediate producer good is also considered

investment and the banking system a kaleckian approach for regions in brazil this paper analyzes the effects of the regional distribution of the banking system on investment rates in brazil the investigation relies on a perspective whereby the role of external funds in ind

financial development unemployment volatility and sectoral dynamics abstract we document a negative and significant relationship between domestic financial development and unemployment volatility in developing and emerging economies demes and the absence of such relationship in advanced economies aes a business cycle labor search model with firm heterogeneity collateral constraints and interfirm input credit capital can quantitatively rationalize these facts greater financial development is associated with lower usage of input credit capital greater bank credit and greater capital accumulation all of which make firms more resilient in the presence of financial shocks firms increased shock resiliency stabilizes employment decisions ultimately leading to smoother unemployment fluctuations then by establishing explicit linkages between firms interfirm input credit acts as an important mechanism that fosters lower volatility across firms under greater financial development as such increases in financial development have a smaller impact in stabilizing unemployment in economies with higher average bank credit gdp ratios and less input credit usage which is the case of aes compared to economies with lower average bank credit gdp ratios and more input credit usage which is the case of demes

r d and credit rationing in smes we study the effects of credit rationing on research and development r d investment using survey and accounting data on a large representative sample of manufacturing small and medium sized enterprises smes our econometric model accounts for the endogeneity of our credit rationing indicator and employs an innovative theory based identification strategy we find that credit rationing has a significantly negative effect on both the probability to set up r d activities and on the level of r d spending conditioned on the r d decision but the overall estimated reduction in r d spending is largely to be associated with the first effect jel g21 d82 032 c35 i introduction long run economic growth and welfare resides on the production of new knowledge and its implementation into new or improved products or processes for this reason identification evaluation and correction of the detrimental effects of potential underinvestment in research and development r d activities have a prominent place in the policy agendas of all industrialized countries this is particularly the case in europe where since the start of the recent economic crisis the policy debate has been focused on the role of capital market imperfections as they increase the cost of r d when firms do not have sufficient internal funds to finance it the credit crunch that is the lack of availability or reduction in supply of credit to businesses from traditional financial institutions is said to reduce firms investment in innovative activities and growth prospects however despite its theoretical appeal and in contrast with the proven sensitivity of fixed capital investment to financing constraints evidence on the susceptibility of r d investment to financial frictions and in particular to credit rationing is still mixed and inconclusive three explanations have been put forward for the lack of robust evidence first it is claimed that the variety in the results reflects the contrast between theoretical explanations based on asymmetric information arguments suggesting a sensitivity of r d to financing constraints potentially higher than that of ordinary investment and the characteristics of r d as a long term investment with high adjustment costs suggesting rather the opposite 1 second existing evidence is based almost exclusively on the sensitivity of firm level r d spending to the availability of internal finance typically measured through cash flow which is however known to be problematic in its ability to proxy for financing constraints kaplan and zingales 1997 2000 third recent contributions have stressed the difficulty in identifying the role of financing constraint using standard investment models when firms have access to multiple channels for raising external financial resources and managing buffer stocks of liquidity brown martinsson and petersen 2011 in this study we use firm level data on r d investment and credit constraints to measure the detrimental effect of credit rationing on r d investment dealing with all the above specified issues first we claim that the ambiguity originated by information problems versus the nature of r d as a long term investment might be resolved if we distinguish between the probability of r d investment the r d participation decision and the size of r d investment once the decision to invest has been taken the amount of r d spending decision we therefore study the effect of credit rationing on the decision to do r d and on the amount of r d investment our hypothesis is that credit rationing displays a stronger effect on the first decision compared with the latter while this expectation might seem obvious to our knowledge econometric analyses on the topic have not yet addressed or proven the differential impact of credit rationing on the participation and amount decisions respectively

do rivals enhance your credit conditions abstract in a model where firms rely on bank financing to build capacity put up specialized productive assets as collateral and then compete a la cournot we introduce a probability of default we investigate how the number of competitors affects the equilibrium amount of bank credit and derive conditions under which an inverted u shaped relationship occurs on the one hand more competitors enhance the resale value of collateralized productive assets on the other hand more competitors shrink firms profits and the resulting income that can be pledged to banks we then extend the analysis to firms outside the cournot industry that are willing to buy productive assets in liquidation and show that the equilibrium bank credit becomes monotonically decreasing in the number of competitors

opacity of young businesses evidence from rating disagreements abstract a conventional wisdom in the contemporary corporate finance literature argues that small and medium sized enterprises smes are informationally opaque we use data from two credit information companies and in particular their disagreements over the creditworthiness of smes to study the empirical relevance of this often invoked assumption our panel data analysis shows that once unobserved firm effects are controlled for the disagreements i e rating splits are inversely related to the age of firms we are not able to document such a robust relationship between the disagreements and the size of firms this finding holds a lesson for empirical corporate finance researchers who need firm level proxies for informational imperfections and asymmetries of the two often used proxies firm size is not as closely related to informational opacity as firm age is

return migration and the survival of entrepreneurial activities in egypt summary the literature shows that temporary international migrants have a high propensity to opt for an entrepreneurial activity upon return but the prospects of survival of these activities have not been explored we address this research question using longitudinal egyptian data we find that entrepreneurs migration experience significantly improves the chances of survival of their entrepreneurial activities adopting econometric techniques that control for return migrants nonrandom selection in unobservables we resort to a bivariate probit model and a two stage residual inclusion estimator using the rate of population growth and the real oil price as alternative instruments for migration

small and medium size enterprises access to finance as a growth constraint abstract this paper presents recent research on access to finance by small and medium size enterprises smes smes form a large part of private sector in many developed and developing countries while cross country research sheds doubt on a causal link between smes and economic development there is substantial evidence that small firms face larger growth constraints and have less access to formal sources of external finance potentially explaining the lack of smes contribution to growth financial and institutional development helps alleviate smes growth constraints and increase their access to external finance and thus levels the playing field between firms of different sizes specific financing tools such as leasing and factoring can be useful in facilitating greater access to finance even in the absence of well developed institutions as can systems of credit information sharing and a more competitive banking structure

business collateral and personal commitments in sme lending abstract using a database of sme credit approvals from a large belgian bank this paper extends the empirical evidence on the determinants of collateral by examining the determinants of business collateral simultaneously with the determinants of personal collateral commitments our results suggest that firm and relationship characteristics seem to be more important determinants of collateral commitment protection than loan and lender characteristics family firms are more likely to offer a higher degree of collateral commitment protection while introducing competition between banks decreases this likelihood the collateral requirement decreases in the length of the bank borrower relationship furthermore trade credit seems to have a signalling effect the lazy banks hypothesis was not supported our results suggest that beside risk arguments also commercial arguments help explain the pledging of collateral using a continuation ratio logit model we discover several differences in the determinants of the collateralisation decision and the determinants of the type of collateral commitments

cost of capital and public loan guarantees to small firms in this paper we study the determinants of the spread charged by banks under a uk policy intervention scheme aimed at supporting access to the credit market for small firms through guarantee backed loans we exploit a unique dataset containing data on 29 266 guarantee backed loans under the uk sflg scheme over the period 2000 to 2005 results suggest that lower spreads are offered for loans of larger amounts and higher durations for service firms for larger firms and for those located in the most advanced regions higher spreads are applied to high tech manufacturing firms and to loans issued for working capital purposes we also find that the presence of other extant debt is associated with a relatively higher spread and that this effect is especially significant for the subset of firms that have reached a maximum debt capacity based on collateralized assets further we also find that the higher the incidence of the publicly guaranteed debt over the total amount of outstanding loans the lower on average the spread however an increase in the guaranteed coverage leads to a contraction in the spread only for loans aimed at covering working capital needs rather than investments