uncertainty investment and industry evolution we study the effects of aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty on the entry of firms total investment and prices in a competitive industry with irreversible investment we first use standard dynamic programming methods to determine firms entry decisions and we describe the resulting industry equilibrium and its characteristics emphasizing the effects of different sources of uncertainty we then show how the conditional distribution of prices can be used as an alternative means of determining and understanding the behavior of firms and the resulting industry equilibrium finally we use four digit u s manufacturing data to examine some implications of the model

an econometric analysis of exploration and extraction of oil in the u k continental shelf this paper develops an econometric model for the analysis of exploration and production policies of price taking suppliers and derives theoretically consistent exploration and output equations for oil which explicitly take account of the oil discovery process and the intertemporal nature of exploration and production decision the model is then applied to an empirical analysis of oil exploration and extraction on the united kingdom continental shelf ukcs over the period 1978 1 1986 4 the analysis explicitly takes account of the available engineering information concerning the pressure dynamics of the petroleum reserves and the geological knowledge pertinent to the discovery process and presents formal statistical tests of the significance of these factors for the explanation of output and exploration in the north sea copyright 1990 by royal economic society

socially responsible investors and the microentrepreneur a canadian case socially responsible investors buy financial securities with two goals to make a market based return and to make companies act in a more socially responsible way most research on socially responsible investment deals with investing in stocks traded on major exchanges we add the case of loaning small amounts of funds to microentrepreneurs through a discussion of a particular case the case is that of calmeadow which in conjunction with the royal bank of canada set up a microlending project in rural nova scotia canada using hirschman s analysis of exit and voice we show that while socially responsible investors may make market based returns for their investments in stocks traded on major exchanges they have no effect on corporate behaviour because their action consists of exit and they are easily replaced by other investors they attain their first goal but not their second on the other hand in the calmeadow royal bank of canada case we see that those who lend money to microenterprises can more easily use voice the relative power difference between the lender and the microentrepreneur enables the lender to make the microentrepreneur act in a more socially responsible way although only marginally but because of the market imperfections existing in this case the very high transactions costs associated with administering small loans the lender concluded it could not attain a market rate of return in this case then the lender attained its second goal but not its first

empathy or antipathy the impact of diversity mixing across ethnic and class lines could potentially either spur understanding or inflame tensions between groups we find that white students at a large state university who were randomly assigned african american roommates in their first year are more likely to endorse affirmative action policies several years later whites who were randomly assigned black roommates are also more likely to say they have more personal contact with and interact more comfortably with members of minority groups whites who were assigned either black or low income roommates are more likely to view a diverse student body as essential for a high quality education students become less supportive of higher taxes for the wealthy when assigned roommates from high income families and they appear more likely to volunteer when assigned roommates from low income families taken together these results suggest that students become more empathetic with the social groups to which their roommates belong

investment and uncertainty with time to build evidence from entry into u s copper mining abstract the standard real options model predicts that increased uncertainty discourages investment when projects are large and take time to build however that prediction can be reversed we investigate the investment uncertainty relationship empirically using historical data on opening dates of new u s copper mines large irreversible projects with substantial construction lags both the timing of the decision to go forward and the price thresholds that trigger that decision are assessed in particular we build upon a reduced form analysis to construct a structural model of entry we find that in this market greater uncertainty encourages investment and lowers the price thresholds for many mines

wage norms capital accumulation and unemployment a post keynesian view the paper presents a post keynesian view of unemployment it argues first that the effective labour demand need not be downward sloping with respect to real wages and aggregate demand need not be downward sloping with respect to inflation second that there is a broad case for unemployment hysteresis understood as endogeneity of the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu based on social norms in wage bargaining and on the supply side effects of capital accumulation and third that much as keynes argued capital investment rather than labour market institutions is the key variable to explain changes in aggregate unemployment performance across countries and over time overall the paper advocates a keynesian view of the nairu where effective demand determines unemployment in the short run and the deviation of actual unemployment from the nairu determines the change in inflation in the medium term the nairu is endogenous and follows actual unemployment copyright 2011 oxford university press

state misallocation and housing prices theory and evidence from china this paper examines the equilibrium price effects of the privatization of housing assets that were previously owned and allocated by the state i develop a theoretical framework that shows that privatization can have ambiguous effects on prices in the private market and that the degree of misallocation of the assets prior to privatization deter mines the subsequent price effects i test the predictions of the model using a large scale housing reform in china the results suggest that the removal of price distortions allowed households to increase their consumption of housing and led to an increase in equilibrium hous ing prices jel l33 018 p25 r31 r38 state participation in the housing market occurs in several forms in countries throughout the world the provision of subsidized housing as a welfare benefit to low income households is common throughout the western hemisphere in addition local governments in several cities in the united states have implemented regula tions that limit the increase of rents charged by landlords 1 this paper focuses on a form of state intervention in housing that occurs through the provision of subsidized homes to state employees the economic consequences of this area of research are potentially large as employer provided housing in the state sector is common throughout the developing world particularly in asia and sub saharan africa government regulation of the private market or the creation of a separate mar ket ensures that certain households have access to housing at prices that are below market value state interventions that aim to bring affordable housing to particu lar subsegments of the population can create economic inefficiencies they distort the decisions that individuals make regarding residential mobility joseph gyourko and peter linneman 1989 gordon a hughes and barry mccormick 1987 and employment michael svarer michael rosholm and jakob roland munch 2005 wang forthcoming and they lead to underinvestment in the construction and main

using maimonides rule to estimate the effect of class size on scholastic achievement the twelfth century rabbinic scholar maimonides proposed a maximum class size of 40 this same maximum induces a nonlinear and nonmonotonic relationship between grade enrollment and class size in israeli public schools today maimonides rule of 40 is used here to construct instrumental variables estimates of effects of class size on test scores the resulting identiecation strategy can be viewed as an application of donald campbell s regression discontinuity design to the class size question the estimates show that reducing class size induces a signiecant and substantial increase in test scores for fourth and efth graders although not for third graders when asked about their views on class size in surveys parents and teachers generally report that they prefer smaller classes this may be because those involved with teaching believe that smaller classes promote student learning or simply because smaller classes offer a more pleasant environment for the pupils and teachers who are in them mueller chase and walden 1988 social scientists and school administrators also have a longstanding interest in the class size question class size is often thought to be easier to manipulate than other school inputs and it is a variable at the heart of policy debates on school quality and the allocation of school resources in many countries see e g robinson 1990 for the united states ofsted 1995 for the united kingdom and moshel ravid 1995 for israel this broad interest in the consequences of changing class size

the labor market impact of immigration a quasi experiment exploiting immigrant location rules in germany with the fall of the berlin wall ethnic germans living in eastern europe and the former soviet union were given the opportunity to migrate to germany within 15 years 2 8 million individuals had done so upon arrival these immigrants were exogenously allocated to different regions to ensure an even distribution across the country their inflow can therefore be seen as a quasi experiment of immigration i analyze the effect of these inflows on skill specific employment rates and wages the results indicate a displacement effect of 3 1 unemployed workers for every 10 immigrants that find a job but no effect on relative wages

product market competition and the impact of price uncertainty on investment some evidence from us manufacturing industries the authors estimate the impact of price uncertainty on investment using a panel of u s manufacturing industries pooling the data for all industries uncertainty has no impact on current investment however for industries that have low levels of seller concentration and thus are likely to be highly competitive the estimated impact is negative and statistically significant while for industries with high levels of seller concentration the impact is always small and not significantly different from zero the finding of a negative relationship between investment and price uncertainty in competitive industries is broadly consistent with models that incorporate irreversibility of capital investment copyright 1996 by blackwell publishing ltd

house prices home equity based borrowing and the u s household leverage crisis us household leverage sharply increased in the years preceding the 2007 eco nomic recession the top panel of figure 1 shows the steady rise in household debt since 1975 which accelerated beginning in 2002 in just five years the household sector doubled its debt balance in comparison the contemporaneous increase in corporate debt was modest the middle panel shows that the increase in household debt from 2002 to 2007 translated into a striking rise in household leverage as mea sured by the debt to income ratio during the same time period corporate leverage declined the dramatic absolute and relative rise in us household leverage from 2002 to 2007 is unprecedented compared to the last 25 years one reason for the rapid expansion in household leverage during this period is that mortgage credit became more easily available to new home buyers mian and sufi 2009 strong house price appreciation from 2002 to 2006 however which may have been fueled by the availability of mortgage credit to a riskier set of new home buyers could also have had an important feedback effect on household lever age through existing homeowners given that 65 percent of us households already owned their primary residence before the acceleration in house prices the feedback from house prices to borrowing may be an important source of the rapid rise in household leverage that preceded the economic downturn our central goals in this study are to estimate how homeowner borrowing responded to the increase in house prices and to identify which homeowners responded most aggressively we examine this home equity based borrowing channel using a dataset consisting of anonymous individual credit files of a national consumer credit bureau agency we follow a random sample of over 74 000 us homeowners who owned their homes as of 1997 at an annual frequency from the end of 1997 until the end of 2008 the bottom panel of figure 1 plots the growth in debt of 1997 homeowners over time and shows that existing homeowners borrow significantly more debt as their house prices appreciate from 2002 to 2006 while the aggregate trend is suggestive

estimating ethnic preferences using ethnic housing quotas in singapore there are many policies around the world aimed at integrating groups gender ethnic national in education employment immigration and housing in the case of housing since prices may not internalize externalities in residential location choices we need to know preferences for welfare analysis this paper estimates people s taste for living with own ethnic groups ethnic preferences using unique policy variation from the ethnic housing quotas in singapore my approach combines policy induced variation commonly used in reduced form settings with a non parametric identi cation strategy in a structural demand estimation framework a la berry levinsohn and pakes 1995 i nd that all groups have strong preferences to live with at least some other

market concentration macroeconomic uncertainty and monetary policy abstract this paper studies the effect of market structure and macroeconomic uncertainty on the transmission of monetary policy we motivate our analysis with a simple model which predicts that 1 investment and production in more concentrated sectors are more affected by demand shocks and 2 high uncertainty makes investment and production more sensitive to demand shocks the empirical analysis estimates the effect of monetary shocks on sectoral output for different sectors in the us using a structural vector autoregressive var approach the results are generally consistent with the theoretical predictions

the slave trade and the origins of mistrust in africa in a recent study nunn 2008 examines the long term impacts of africa s slave trade he finds that the slave trade which occurred over a period of more than 400 years had a significant negative effect on long term economic development although the article arguably identifies a negative causal relationship between the slave trade and income today the analysis is unable to establish the exact causal mechanisms underlying this reduced form relationship in this article we examine one of the channels through which the slave trade may affect economic development today combining contemporary individual level survey data with historical data on slave shipments by ethnic group we ask whether the slave trade caused a culture of mistrust to develop within africa initially slaves were captured primarily through state organized raids and warfare but as the trade progressed the environment of ubiquitous insecurity caused individuals to turn on others including friends and family members and to kidnap trick and sell each other into slavery sigismund wilhelm koelle 1854 p e h hair 1965 charles piot 1996 we hypothesize that in this environment a culture of mistrust may have evolved which may persist to this day we show that current differences in trust levels within africa can be traced back to the transatlantic and indian ocean slave trades combining contemporary individual level survey data with historical data on slave shipments by ethnic group we find that individuals whose ancestors were heavily raided during the slave trade are less trusting today evidence from a variety of identification strategies suggests that the relationship is causal examining causal mechanisms we show that most of the impact of the slave trade is through factors that are internal to the individual such as cultural norms beliefs and values jel j15 n57 z13

time on market and price trade offs in high rise housing sub markets this paper provides the first analytical study of the relationship between list price and time on market tom for high rise public housing flats stratified by sub markets in terms of geographical region and property type in addition the effects of macroeconomic variables pertinent to the price discovery process for property markets are analysed by using data from single listings with one major agency firm to control for brokerage effects the results obtained in this study are robust to incentive factors arising from firm size number of listings commission structure and incentive measures the key results are that floor level affects the relationship between pricing and tom and variations in determinants of tom exist across sub markets moreover tom is influenced by price movements in both the public and private housing markets as well as by individual agent effort

payment discipline depends on management ethics the main aim of the study was to identify if management ethics have a positive impact on payment discipline our sample includes 273 slovene enterprises which represent 9 1 of 2978 slovenian enterprises with 10 or more employees selected from the database of the slovenian rating agency i d o o to determine management ethics we used the corporate ethical virtues measurement instrument questionnaire the data concerning average late payments were also obtained from the database the slovenian rating agency i d o o we conducted a factor analysis using the enter method we confirmed that the influence of management ethics have a positive impact on average payment delays expressed in days

motivating employees to act ethically an expectancy theory approach employees face an array of moral issues in their everyday decision making environmental concerns employee and community welfare and the interests of other companies competitors customers and suppliers are only a few examples yet businesses do not always address the issue of how employees should assess the moral import of their actions and incorporate these considerations into their decisions as a result moral considerations are often ignored leading to unethical practices which may hurt the long term interests of the company in this paper we present a model to help eliminate this problem our model uses expectancy theory a process theory of motivation to show that teaching employees to engage in moral reasoning and creating a corporate culture in which ethical behavior is both encouraged and rewarded can increase the likelihood that a company s employees will act ethically

does public scientific research complement private investment in research and development in the pharmaceutical industry abstract this paper analyzes how pharmaceutical research and development r d investment responds to publicly supported biomedical research performed mainly at universities and nonprofit institutions new microlevel data on investment by the u s national institutes of health allow measures of public basic and clinical research in seven medical classes to be included in a distributed lag model explaining pharmaceutical r d investment using a panel of medical classes observed over 18 years the analysis found strong evidence that public basic and clinical research are complementary to pharmaceutical r d investment and thereby stimulate private industry investment however differences in the relevance and degree of scientific and market uncertainty between basic and clinical research lead to differences in the magnitude and timing of the pharmaceutical investment response

real options delay vs pre emption do industrial characteristics matter this paper presents an empirical study of the channels of influence from uncertainty to fixed investment suggested by real options theory using panel data from the confederation of british industry cbi industrial trends survey we report ols estimates of the impact of uncertainty on investment where the regressors are augmented by cross sectional averages of the dependent variable and of the individual specific regressors as recently suggested by pesaran pesaran m h 2006 estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure econometrica 74 967 1012 the cross industry pattern of results is checked for consistency with the pattern predicted by real options theory using a specially constructed data set of industrial characteristics we find that irreversibility is able to predict the pattern detected but only when combined with a measure of the information advantage of delay there is also evidence for expansion options effects industries with high r d and advertising intensities tend to have positive uncertainty effects

can affirmative action be cost effective an experimental examination of price preference auctions one of the most controversial questions facing our economy and society in recent years is the question of affirmative action the debate centers around an issue of minority representation in which the rights of the majority are depicted as being compromised by affirmative action programs set up to increase the welfare of minorities implicit in this discussion is the assumption that all affirmative action programs must be cost increasing this result it is claimed follows trivially from economic theory since any interference into the competitive process which prevents the most capable from being chosen must be wasteful and costly in this paper we challenge this claim with experimental results demonstrating that pricepreference auctions in which high cost minority firms are given preferential treatment in the awarding of contracts in such a way that it is possible for these firms to win a contract but not have submitted the lowest bid can be programs that both enhance minority representation and are cost effective in that they decrease the cost of government procurement in the theoretical literature on asymmetric auctions eric maskin and john riley 1995 and the optimal auction literature roger myerson 1981 it has been shown that in asymmetric auctions in which firms draw their costs from

uncertainty irreversibility and the likelihood of entry an empirical assessment of the option to defer abstract recent work in the real options approach to investment has argued that firms face significant opportunity costs when entry costs are largely irreversible and these costs equal the value of an option to defer investment this study seeks to examine empirically these claims by investigating the interactive effects of uncertainty and irreversibility on the likelihood of entry into new business by diversified firms we investigate both industry and firm specific factors influencing the degree of investment irreversibility in general we find support for the notion that real option value affects the likelihood of entry

does the notion of doing well by doing good prevail among entrepreneurial ventures in a developing nation the rise in ethical and social responsibility awareness in contemporary businesses has led to assumptions that the associated behaviours would enable competitive advantage to be attained as a firm distinguishes itself from its competitors through such practices this paper reports on a study conducted on the prevalence of such practices among entrepreneurial ventures in an emerging economy malaysia and the effect of such practices on both financial and non financial performance a sequential inter method mixing design was employed in which during stage 1 a series of semi structured interviews with ten malaysian sme founder owners were conducted stage 2 involved a survey in which a total of 212 usable questionnaires were received the results of the first phase of the research qualitative found evidence that entrepreneurial ventures in malaysia do generally engage in both ethical and socially responsible practices the subsequent model testing using sem however revealed that while ethical practices were positively associated with venture performance socially responsible practices were not this may indicate that while entrepreneurial ventures in emerging economies like malaysia become quickly aware of the more serious consequences of not adopting ethical practices the concern for social issues may still be lacking i e in terms of motivations they may be closer to the profitable end of the philanthropy versus profitability spectrum while the findings may be equivocal we believe that the paper makes the following two significant contributions 1 it provides an empirical test of the importance of ethical and socially responsible practices to entrepreneurial venture performance and 2 it furthers understanding of how and why this may be different in an emerging economy context

aggregate uncertainty capacity utilization and manufacturing investment theory suggests that the level of uncertainty affects the investment decision for firms although the sigh of the effect is ambiguous a garch m estimator is used to model the conditional variance of gdp as a proxy for uncertainty this measure is then employed in a simple model of the investment decision the results are that the level of aggregate uncertainty has a significant negative effect on manufacturing investment in particular periods there were very large effects on average uncertainty reduces investment by about 5 but in 1974 the effect peacked at 48

entry by foreign firms in the united states under exchange rate uncertainty this paper tests the effects that real exchange rate fluctuations had on foreign direct investment into the united states during the 1980s using a sample of foreign investments in sixty one four digit sic u s wholesale industries this paper finds exchange rate volatility to be negatively correlated with the number of foreign investments that occur in these industries this negative effect is most pronounced for industries where sunk investments in physical and intangible assets are relatively high although exchange rate volatility deters investment from all countries its effect was most significant for investments by japanese companies copyright 1993 by mit press

industry wide versus firm specific uncertainty and investment british company panel data evidence this paper presents evidence on the prediction that the impacts of firm specific and industry wide uncertainty on investment will be different results show that these work in opposing directions and that the effect of industry specific uncertainty is stronger in concentrated industries

interjurisdictional sorting and majority rule an empirical analysis the goal of this paper is to provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of majority rule and tiebout sorting within a system of local jurisdictions the idea behind the estimation procedure is to investigate whether observed levels of public expenditures satisfy necessary conditions implied by majority rule in a general equilibrium model of residential choice the estimator controls for observed and unobserved heterogeneity among households observed and unobserved characteristics of communities and the potential endogeneity of prices and expenditures as well as the self selection of households into communities of their choice we estimate the structural parameters of the model using data from the boston metropolitan area the empirical findings reject myopic voting models more sophisticated voting models based on utility taking provide a potential explanation of the main empirical regularities

uncertainty in uk manufacturing evidence from qualitative survey data this paper generalizes the probability method of quantification carlson j and parkin m 1975 inflation expectations economica 42 123 138 to the variance facilitating the quantification of survey data which ask individuals whether they are uncertain an application evaluates time series and cross sectional proxies of uncertainty and considers how uncertainty affects investment

affirmative action and the utilization of minority and women owned businesses in highway procurement i introduction affirmative action programs in public procurement are among the more important government programs intended to advance self employment opportunities for minorities and women in 2002 6 75 of federal procurement dollars were awarded to disadvantaged business enterprises dbes through the small business administration and preferential treatment for minority firms is a common feature of many state and local government agencies recent court decisions and state measures have reduced the scope of and in some settings eliminated affirmative action programs based on race or gender which has given renewed importance to understanding the role of affirmative action in the success of self employed minorities and women the use of affirmative action is particularly widespread in the highway procurement industry since the late 1970s and early 1980s most states have employed affirmative action to award contracts to minority owned firms and since 1982 the federal highway administration fhwa has required states use affirmative action in awarding projects using federal funds in 1998 states awarded 14 6 billion of construction and repair contracts using federal funds of which 1 9 billion was awarded to firms owned by minorities and women as blanchflower and wainright 2005 note in the intervening years states have increasingly been able to use race neutral measures to meet goals which has had an adverse effect on utilization of minority owned firms understanding the effects of affirmative action in this industry is made important by the significance of the public sector according to the 2002 census of industries 72 6 of the revenue earned by firms in the highway street and bridge construction industry was from government owned projects as a result changes in public procurement policy will have a strong effect on firms in the highway construction industry despite the importance of affirmative action in this industry our understanding of the effects of these programs is limited states generally use percentage goals for the participation of minority owned subcontractors by prime contractors past research has established the response of dbe utilization to large episodic changes in affirmative action such as the elimination by certain states or cities of affirmative action programs blanchflower and wainright 2005 however little evidence exists regarding the intensive margin of affirmative action in public procurement that is as participation goals are raised or lowered what is the response of the utilization of dbes generally and minority and women owned firms specifically higher dbe goals do not necessarily raise the utilization of firms owned by minorities and women for two reasons first the dbe goal may not be binding in which case the marginal effect of small changes to the goal would be zero second goals for the utilization of dbes are often not perfectly enforced for instance a contractor facing a requirement to subcontract a fraction of a contract to dbes can skirt this requirement by documenting a good faith effort to employ firms owned by minorities and women the goal of this paper is to provide new evidence regarding the effectiveness of affirmative action programs in highway procurement at increasing purchases from firms owned by minorities and women two sources of variation are employed to answer this question the first is variation in dbe goals across states over time and the second is variation across projects within a state i begin by examining state level data regarding affirmative action goals and dbe utilization over the entire history of the fhwa s affirmative action program i utilize changes in affirmative action goals over time within states to identify the effect of affirmative action intensity on the level of dbe purchases i find that increasing goals for the utilization of dbe goals substantially raise the utilization of minority owned business enterprises mbes

affirmative action in education evidence from engineering college admissions in india abstract this paper examines an affirmative action program for lower caste groups in engineering colleges in india we study both the targeting properties of the program and its implications for labor market outcomes we find that affirmative action successfully targets the financially disadvantaged the upper caste applicants that are displaced by affirmative action come from a richer economic background than the lower caste applicants that are displacing them targeting by caste however may lead to the exclusion of other disadvantaged groups for example caste based targeting reduces the overall number of females entering engineering colleges we find that despite poor entrance exam scores lower caste entrants obtain a positive return to admission our estimates however also suggest that these gains may come at an absolute cost because the income losses experienced by displaced upper caste applicants are larger than the income gains experienced by displacing lower caste students limited sample sizes in our preferred econometric specifications however prevent us from drawing strong conclusions from these labor market findings

a study of the link between a corporation s financial performance and its commitment to ethics a number of studies have tested the relationship between a corporation s social and ethical performance and its financial performance in contrast this is the first study to demonstrate a link between overall financial performance and an emphasis on ethics as an aspect of corporate governance it identifies the 26 8 percent of the 500 largest u s public corporations that in their annual report to shareholders commit to ethical behavior toward their stakeholders or emphasize compliance with their code of conduct the financial performance of these corporations ranks higher than that of those who do not at a significance level of p 0 005 using the 1997 business week ranking which averages eight publicly reported measures of historical financial performance these findings should motivate more corporations to utilize the principles of social and ethical accounting auditing and reporting seaar

tipping and the dynamics of segregation schelling dynamic models of segregation journal of mathematical sociology 1 1971 143 186 showed that extreme segregation can arise from social interactions in white preferences once the minority share in a neighborhood exceeds a tipping point all the whites leave we use regression discontinuity methods and census tract data from 1970 through 2000 to test for discontinuities in the dynamics of neighborhood racial composition we find strong evidence that white population flows exhibit tipping like behavior in most cities with a distribution of tipping points ranging from 5 to 20 minority share tipping is prevalent both in the suburbs and near existing minority enclaves in contrast to white population flows there is little evidence of nonlinearities in rents or housing prices around the tipping point tipping points are higher in cities where whites have more tolerant racial attitudes

selection on observed and unobserved variables assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools in this paper we measure the effect of catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores because we do not have a good instrumental variable for catholic school attendance we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to the amount of selection on the unobservables we also propose an informal way to assess selectivity bias based on measuring the ratio of selection on unobservables to selection on observables that would be required if one is to attribute the entire effect of catholic school attendance to selection bias we use our methods to estimate the effect of attending a catholic high school on a variety of outcomes our main conclusion is that catholic high schools substantially increase the probability of graduating from high school and more tentatively attending college we find little evidence of an effect on test scores

household location and race estimates of a multinomial logit model a multinomial logit model of household location choice in which families choose from a number of mutually exclusive residential location is estimated regression results indicate that the locational choices of white and black households are importantly but differently affected by their socioeconomic characteristics in that regard black suburbanization patterns are little influenced by large simulated changes in household characteristics findings suggest that policies which focus on the educational and earnings opportunities of blacks would likely be largely ineffectual in fostering the integration of predominantly white suburban communities copyright 1989 by mit press

government procurement and international trade abstract we model the bidding for a government contract in which there is imperfect competition each bidder is better informed about his own costs than either his rival bidders or the government and the distribution of the domestic firms costs differs from the distribution of foreign firms costs because of comparative advantage effects we find that the government minimizes its expected procurement cost by operating a price preference policy not necessarily purchasing from the lowest bidder

patent protection market uncertainty and r d investment the real options investment theory shows that greater uncertainty about market revenues reduces current r d investment by increasing the value of waiting this paper presents empirical evidence that patent protection mitigates the effect market uncertainty on r d investment

the impact of technological turbulence on entrepreneurial behavior social norms and ethics three internet based cases we investigate the entrepreneurial opportunities and ethical dilemmas presented by technological turbulence more specifically we investigate the line between baumol s j polit econ 98 1990 893 productive e g innovation unproductive e g rent seeking and destructive e g criminal entrepreneurship through three examples of internet innovation spam destructive music file sharing unproductive and internet pharmacies potentially productive the emergence of accessible internet technologies under present norms has created the potential for all three entrepreneurial activities because of the propensity for self serving biases and for bending the rules the need for creativity in overcoming obstacles and overall liabilities of newness entrepreneurs are likely to challenge established industrial morals and laws unlike new entrants incumbents must abide by the currently accepted norms and thus suffer from liabilities of oldness the challenge for new entrants is to change sociopolitical legitimacy whereas incumbents need to defend the established norms we discuss competitive and other issues that result from technological turbulence and innovation

relation of dominant problems to stages of growth in technology based new ventures two studies investigating the growth patterns of new ventures are presented in the first study a stage of growth model theorized to apply specifically to technology based new ventures was develop

the relative inefficiency of quotas the cheese case the nonequivalence of tariffs and quotas under a wide variety of circumstances is well established in economic theory this study considers heterogeneity as a source of nonequivalence and demonstrates its practical importance where restriction is inevitable the bias of economists in favor of price instruments is not thoroughly grounded this study should help provide a foundation the point of departure from the equivalence model is differentiation of products

the investment strategies for a dynamic supply chain under stochastic demands abstract a successful supply chain management scm should aim to maximize the net present value of joint profits along the supply chain however the volatile market conditions cause the future cash flows along the supply chain more difficult to anticipate to obtain higher supply chain value the supplier and the retailer should cooperatively determine the optimal entry time this paper proposes a two stage dynamic optimization model by using a real option approach and then performs the sensitivity analyses for the option value and the investment threshold the impacts of some critical factors including the growth rate and the volatility of demand shock sunk cost and relating operational costs cost rates fix costs holding costs of inventory and shipping costs are investigated

large company capital formation and effects of market share turbulence micro data evidence from the pims database the possible effect of demand uncertainty on company investment decisions is investigated at the micro level a standard investment function is employed and modified to incorporate demand uncertainty the data comes from the pims data base on business units of large firms in concentrated markets in dynamic panel data estimation significance was found for a variable representing market share turbulence in a number of industries this variable causes a depressing effect on capital investment either on its own or in combination with indicators of vertical integration which indicate insulation from demand uncertainty the results constitute some of the best available evidence that demand uncertainty constraints capital investment

firms investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty we investigate the effect of demand and price uncertainty on firms planned and realized investment from a panel of manufacturing firms uncertainty measures are derived from firms own expectations about demand and prices and firm s sales we find that demand uncertainty at the time of planning depresses planned and subsequent realized investment firms do not revise their plans due to demand uncertainty at the time of spending suggesting that reducing demand uncertainty will only have lagged effects on investment we do not find any effect of price uncertainty our results are consistent with the behaviour of monopolistic firms with irreversible capital

bid preference programs and participation in highway procurement auctions we use data from highway procurement auctions subject to california s small business preference program to study the effect of bid preferences on auction outcomes our analysis is based on an estimated model of firms bidding and participation decisions which allows us to evaluate the effects of current and alternative policy designs we show that incorporating participation responses significantly alters the assessment of preferential treatment policies

investment in manufacturing exchange rates and external exposure abstract this paper introduces a new measure of external exposure which emphasizes exposure to external markets both through export sales and imported inputs into production and uses this measure to explore the linkage between exchange rates and investment in us industry on average manufacturing sectors have evolved to being primarily import exposed by the early 1980s in low price over cost markup sectors markups are relatively unresponsive to exchange rate changes whereas sectoral investment patterns are strongly affected by contrast high markup industries absorb much of the exchange rate fluctuations in markups and pass relatively little through to real investment

war and local collective action in sierra leone abstract we study the brutal 1991 2002 sierra leone civil war using nationally representative household data on conflict experiences postwar economic outcomes local politics and collective action individuals whose households directly experienced more intense war violence are robustly more likely to attend community meetings more likely to join local political and community groups and more likely to vote tests using prewar controls and alternative samples suggest that selection into victimization is unlikely to be driving the results more speculatively the findings could help partially explain the rapid postwar political and economic recoveries observed in sierra leone and after several other recent african civil wars

on the sign of the investment uncertainty relationship understanding the effects of uncertainty over any decision variable has fascinated economists for a long time risk aversion and incomplete markets are likely to make the investment uncertainty relationship negative e g roger craine 1989 joseph zeira 1989 what happens in the absence of risk aversion and incomplete markets is however ambiguous richard hartman 1972 and andrew b abel 1983 1984 1985 found that in the presence of symmetric convex costs of adjustment mean preserving increases in price uncertainty raise investment of a competitive firm as long as the profit function is convex in prices on the other hand the recent literature on irreversible investment e g robert s pindyck 1988 giuseppe bertola 1988 has shown that increases in uncertainty lower investment all these results have been derived under either risk neutrality or complete markets intuition suggests that the explanation for such a difference lies with the asymmetric nature of adjustment costs in the irreversible investment case as compared with the symmetry of the adjustment cost mechanisms proposed by abel and hartman although this intuition is confirmed in this paper asymmetric adjustment costs are shown not to be sufficient to explain why the results differ in fact a more hidden but at least as important difference between these two literatures is that the former assumes perfect competition and constant returns to scale whereas the latter assumes either imperfect competition or decreasing returns to scale or both 2 the purpose of this paper is to highlight the role of the decreasing marginal return to capital assumption due to either imperfect competition or decreasing returns to scale or both in determining the effects of adjustment cost asymmetries on the sign of the response of investment to changes in uncertainty under risk neutrality for this the paper develops a simple model with a cost of adjustment mechanism general enough to consider both symmetric convexity and irreversibility as special cases one of the most important findings is the lack of robustness of the negative relationship between investment and uncertainty under asymmetric adjustment costs3 to changes in the degree of competition in fact when firms are nearly competitive the conclusion of hartman and of abel holds no matter how asymmetric adjustment costs are studying adjustment cost mechanisms has a central role in understanding the dynamics of investment and its business cycle implications but conclusive results about the sign of the instantaneous relationship between uncertainty and investment should not be department of economics columbia university new york ny 10027 i am grateful to giuseppe bertola prajit dutta glen hubbard anil kashyap richard lyons and the referees for their useful comments 1the financial literature on investment has considered risk aversion through a premium in the discount rate determined by the capm capital asset pricing model intertemporal capm or consumption capm however often this discount rate is left unchanged when studying the response of investment to uncertainty changes e g pindyck 1988 pp 974 5 thereby omitting the effect of changes in uncertainty on investment due to risk aversion and incomplete markets 2in the typical version of the irreversible investment problem there is no cost of upward adjustments thus imperfect competition and or decreasing returns to scale are required to bound the size of the firm 3in this paper asymmetric adjustment cost refers to the case in which it is more expensive to adjust downward than upward certainly the opposite case is a trivial extension of the case studied in this paper

on the effect of high energy prices on investment empirical analyses of firm behaviour typically assume that there is a stable relationship between investment on the one hand and changes in the relative prices of inputs output demand and other determinants on the other hand however because of the lumpy nature and irreversibility of investments and the presence of uncertainty about future economic developments a specific percentage change in relative prices and output demand may not always lead to the same percentage change in capital stocks that means that different regimes may exist in investment behaviour we test whether such regimes exist using high quality data on eight manufacturing industries in the netherlands three different regimes can be identified that are characterized by differences in the relative input price levels and we find that if relative prices take on extreme values the propensity to adjust the scale of production to changes in demand is very low

the econometric analysis of models with risk terms summary in this paper we have attempted to provide an integrated approach to the estimation of models with risk terms it was argued that there exist orthogonality conditions between variables in the information set and higher order moments of the unanticipated variable density these could be exploited to provide consistent estimators of the parameters associated with the risk term specifically it was recommended that an iv estimator should be applied with instruments constructed from the information set four existing methods commonly used to estimate models with risk terms are examined and applications of the techniques are made to the estimation of the risk term in the us c exchange market and the effects of price uncertainty upon production

exchange rates and investment in united states industry the path of the dollar has significantly influenced investment activity in u s industry the effects of both exchange rate levels and exchange rate volatility have been more pronounced in the 1980s than in the 1970s although aggregate investment data mask some of these relationships the effects of exchange rates on investment are most pronounced in the disaggregate data for manufacturing durable goods sectors and nonmanufacturing sectors these relationships also have changed over time in contrast to the conventional wisdom in the 1980s real dollar depreciations appreciations were likely to be associated with investment contractions expansions copyright 1993 by mit press

ethnic enclaves and the economic success of immigrants evidence from a natural experiment recent immigrants tend to locate in ethnic enclaves within metropolitan areas the economic consequence of living in such enclaves is still an unresolved issue we use an immigrant policy initiative in sweden when government authorities distributed refugee immigrants across locales in a way that may be considered exogenous this policy initiative provides a unique natural experiment which allows us to estimate the causal effect on labor market outcomes of living in enclaves we find substantive evidence of sorting across locations when sorting is taken into account living in enclaves improves labor market outcomes for instance the earnings gain associated with a standard deviation increase in ethnic concentration is in the order of four to five percent

housing market spillovers evidence from the end of rent control in cambridge massachusetts we measure the capitalization of housing market externalities into residential housing values by studying the unanticipated elimination of stringent rent controls in cambridge massachusetts in 1995 pooling data on the universe of assessed values and transacted prices of cambridge residential properties between 1988 and 2005 we find that rent decontrol generated substantial robust price appreciation at decontrolled units and nearby never controlled units accounting for a quarter of the 7 8 billion in cambridge residential property appreciation during this period the majority of this contribution stems from induced appreciation of never controlled properties residential investment explains only a small fraction of the total

what do we know about investment under uncertainty recent theoretical developments relating to investment under uncertainty have highlighted the importance of irreversibility for the timing of investment expenditures and their expected returns this has subsequently stimulated a growing empirical literature which examines uncertainty and threshold effects on investment behaviour this paper presents a review of this literature a variety of methods have been used to investigate the empirical implication of irreversibility in investment the majority focusing on the relationship between investment flows and proxy measures of uncertainty a general conclusion is that increased uncertainty at both aggregate and disaggregate levels leads to lower investment rates this suggests that there is an irreversibility effect under which greater uncertainty raises the value of the call option to delay a commitment to investment this effect appears to dominate any positive impact on investment arising from the fact that greater uncertability under certain circumstances increases the marginal profitability of capital the methods used raise a number of issues which call into question the reliability of the findings and these are addressed in the paper however if such irreversibility effects are present then their omission from traditional investment models casts doubt on the efficacy of such specifications jel classification d81 d92 e22

real exchange rate uncertainty private investment in ldcs this paper examines empirically the link between real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries using a large cross country time series data set the paper builds a garch based measure of real exchange rate volatility and finds that it has a strong negative effect on investment after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity the effect of uncertainty is not uniform however there is some evidence of threshold effects so that uncertainty only matters when it exceeds some critical level in addition the negative effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on investment is significantly larger in economies that are highly open and in those with less developed financial systems

small business owner managers perceptions of business ethics and csr related concepts recent academic articles point to an increased vagueness and overlap in concepts related to business ethics and corporate responsibility further the perception of these notions can differ in the small business world from the original academic definitions this article focuses on the cognition of small business owner managers given the impact of small business owner managers on their ventures corporate responsibility and ethical issues can take a different route in smes the small business owner manager is able to shape the corporate culture and to enact values other than profit adopting a cognitive perspective we have identified how the small business owner manager makes sense of notions linked to corporate social responsibility csr and business ethics the concept of sensemaking has recently been applied to csr basu and pallazzo 2008 cramer et al 2006 applying a cognitive perspective to small business owners may help in explaining specific phenomena found within small business ownership for this research the repertory grid technique rgt is used a method that has not previously been widely applied in the business and society field

ethics in american companies a managerial perspective this study investigated several issues with 1498 managers nationwide regarding for example how ethical they felt their organizations were and whether their personal principles must be compromised for the organization s sake in addition their decision criteria for two scenarios involving ethical implications were articulated

adjustment costs firm responses and micro vs macro labor supply elasticities evidence from danish tax records we show that the effects of taxes on labor supply are shaped by interactions between adjustment costs for workers and hours constraints set by firms we develop a model in which firms post job offers characterized by an hours requirement and workers pay search costs to find jobs we present evidence supporting three predictions of this model by analyzing bunching at kinks using danish tax records first larger kinks generate larger taxable income elasticities second kinks that apply to a larger group of workers generate larger elasticities third the distribution of job offers is tailored to match workers aggregate tax preferences in equilibrium our results suggest that macro elasticities may be substantially larger than the estimates obtained using standard microeconometric methods

the ethical context of entrepreneurship proposing and testing a developmental framework the aim of this study is to increase our understanding of the ethical climate of entrepreneurial firms as they grow and develop a developmental framework is introduced to describe the formal and informal ethical structures that emerge in entrepreneurial firms over time factors influencing where firms are within the developmental framework are posited including the entrepreneur s psychological profile lifecycle stage of the business and descriptive characteristics of the venture it is also proposed that the implementation of ethical structures will impact perceptions of the clarity and adequacy of the ethical standards of the firm and the firm s preparedness to deal with ethical challenges as they arise results are reported of a cross sectional survey of small firms at different stages of development the findings indicate the existence of four distinct clusters of firms based on their formal and informal ethical structures superlatives core proponents pain and gain and deficients evidence is also provided of statistically significant relationships between the proposed antecedent and outcome variables implications are drawn from the results and priorities are established for future research

geology or economics testing models of irreversible investment using north sea oil data this paper tests the main implications of models of irreversible investment using data from operations in the oil fields in the north sea discrete time hazard regression models are used to ascertain the influence of economic variables the expected price of oil the variance of the price of oil and the level of reserves on the lag between the discovery of a field and the decision to develop the field we are able to control for heterogeneity in the data by incorporating variables which account for both the geological features of each field and individual operator characteristics the results indicate that the expected price of oil and the level of reserves are important in influencing the appraisal duration but that the variance of the oil price is not variables capturing the non economic features of the individual fields are also found to be significant factors affecting the appraisal lag copyright 1994 by royal economic society

war and local collective action in sierra leone a comment on the use of coefficient stability approaches abstract in a study of the effect of civil war exposure on local collective action outcomes in sierra leone bellows and miguel 2009 employ a coefficient stability approach to assess the importance of omitted variable bias building on altonji et al 2005a here we clarify the econometric assumptions underlying bellows and miguel 2009 and extend their analysis using data on dependent variable reliability ratios and the method developed in oster 2015

asymmetry and uncertainty in capital formation an application to oil investment theories of irreversible investment suggest a negative relation between investment and uncertainty and nonlinear adjustment costs open for asymmetries in the adjustment of fixed capital we propose an econometric modelling approach to estimate and test the key predictions of modern investment theory including asymmetric dynamics and various uncertainty indicators our application on a data set from the oil industry offers empirical support for both asymmetric dynamics and uncertainty in oil and gas investment

the relative performance of real estate marketing platforms mls versus fsbomadison com we compare house sales on a for sale by owner fsbo platform to multiple listing service mls sales and find that fsbo precommission prices are no lower but that fsbo is less effective in terms of time to sell and probability of a sale we do not find direct evidence of the importance of network size as a reason for the lower effectiveness of fsbo we do find evidence of endogenous platform differentiation patient sellers use fsbo while patient buyers transact more often on the mls where they avoid patient sellers we discuss the implications for platform competition two sided markets and welfare

impact of bayesian learning and externalities on strategic investment we investigate the interplay between learning effects and externalities in the problem of competitive investments with uncertain returns we examine a game theoretic duopoly investment model in which i a firm can learn about the profitability of the investment by observing the performance of the first mover and ii externalities exist between the investments of two firms we find a region of a war of attrition between the two firms in which the interplay between externalities and learning gives rise to counterintuitive effects on investment strategies and payoffs in particular we find that contrary to the conventional war of attrition where an increase in benefits for the follower generally delays the first move an increase in the rate of learning which tends to benefit the follower can hasten the first investment this paper was accepted by james smith decision analysis

the impact of financial crises and tolerance for uncertainty abstract financial crises can have severe negative effects on investment one reason for this is that financial crises increase uncertainty increasing the real option value of delaying investment in this paper we show that the negative effect of crises on investment differs significantly across countries in countries with low tolerance for uncertainty the negative effect is strong the negative effect is absent in countries that are more tolerant of uncertainty these findings are similar across different types of financial crisis they vary as predicted across type of investor asset and industry and they are not driven by uncertainty averse countries adopting more rigid institutions

the effect of court ordered hiring quotas on the composition and quality of police arguably the most aggressive armative action program ever implemented in the united states was a series of court ordered racial hiring quotas imposed on municipal police departments my best estimate of the eect of court ordered armative action on workforce composition is a 14

fiscal rules and twin deficits the link between fiscal and external balances this paper investigates the relationship between countries fiscal balances and current accounts with an emphasis on the role of fiscal rules the direct effect of fiscal policy on the current account via aggregate import demand is potentially amplified by indirect effects materializing through interest rate effects and inter generational transfers that reduce savings on the other hand the implied positive relation between fiscal and external balances is potentially attenuated by offsetting changes in savings through ricardian equivalence considerations we expect this attenuation effect to be stronger in countries with more stringent fiscal rules and test this hypothesis using a panel of 73 countries over the period 1985 2012 as previous studies we find a positive effect of fiscal balances on the current account supporting the twin deficit hypothesis however the effect of fiscal balances on the current account depends on the stringency of fiscal budget balance or debt rules in place it is reduced by one third on average and virtually eliminated for countries with the most stringent fiscal rules authors abstract

estimates of the variance of u s inflation based upon the arch model it is generally agreed that the unpredictability of future inflation is a major component of the welfare loss associated with inflation perfectly predicted inflation might induce some costs through institutional rigidities governmental interference and transaction costs but in the long run these should be rather minimal as these institutions adopt various forms of indexing when inflation is unpredictable risk averse economic agents will incur a loss even if prices and quantities are perfectly flexible in all markets inflation is a measure of the relative price of goods today and goods tomorrow thus uncertainty in tomorrow s price impairs the efficiency of today s allocation decisions friedman in his nobel lecture 8 argues convincingly that higher variability of inflation would lead to decreased output ceteris paribus he then conjectures that higher rates of inflation are generally associated with higher variability of inflation and presumably greater uncertainty about future rates if this is true then higher rates of inflation would also be associated with low levels of output which implies a positively sloped phillips curve this paper uses a new statistical technique arch to estimate the conditional mean and variance of inflation from u s time series data the main finding is that the variance of inflation in the seventies was only slightly greater than in the sixties

estimating the distortionary effects of ethnic quotas in singapore using housing transactions abstract desegregation is a key policy issue in many countries i investigate a residential desegregation program in singapore the ethnic housing quotas i show that choice restrictions imposed on apartment blocks above the quota limits constrained could have distortionary effects causing price and quantity differences for constrained versus unconstrained blocks i test these predictions by hand matching more than 500 000 names in the phonebook to ethnicities to calculate ethnic proportions at the apartment block level i can then investigate differences for constrained and unconstrained blocks close to the quota limits and test for sorting around the limits i find that price differences are between 3 and 5 quantity effects are economically significant translating to longer time on market durations selection cannot fully explain these results my results point to challenges in achieving desegregation using quantity restrictions

how costly is affirmative action government contracting and california s proposition 209 abstract this paper investigates the effect of disadvantaged business enterprise subcontractor goals on the winning bids for highway construction contracts using california s proposition 209 which prohibited the consideration of race or gender in awarding state funded contracts after proposition 209 prices on state funded contracts fell by 5 6 relative to federally funded projects for which preferences still applied most of the price decline after proposition 209 resulted from the mix of subcontractors employed which seems to arise from the higher costs of firms located in high minority areas finally short run barriers to entry and expansion may increase the cost of affirmative action

using founder status age of firm and company growth rate as the basis for distinguishing entrepreneurs from managers of smaller businesses abstract this article examined the empirical implications of definitions that distinguish entrepreneurs from managers of smaller businesses based on their founder nonfounder status and their firms ages and growth rates the best distinctions were created using 1 founders 2 younger companies and 3 the combination of founders and younger companies growth indicators did not discriminate well the two founder based distinctions shared a profile of entrepreneurs as running smaller companies with higher return on assets roa than nonentrepreneurial managers having shorter tenure in their positions having previous work experience in the same industry and having higher risk taking propensity the distinction based on age of firm also showed strong ability to discriminate among respondents the field of entrepreneurship has few longer standing controversies than the one surrounding the question of what distinguishes entrepreneurs from nonentrepreneurial managers in trying to separate entrepreneurs from managers of smaller businesses in particular questions exist concerning the key defining differences definitions of entrepreneurship have utilized founder versus nonfounder status company age and company growth rates as distinguishing elements entrepreneurs have been defined by one or more of the following elements being a company founder running a young company and running or desiring to run a high growth company this article tests these elements to see if they provide a clearly differentiated profile of entrepreneurs it uses the founder nonfounder distinction for example to see if this distinction functions well in identifying a number of company financial and personal attributes that associate with founders rather than nonfounders the approach advocated here borrows from configurational theory as it has emerged in the fields of strategic management and organizational theory meyer tsui and hinings 1993 to look for a constellation of variables that group together in depicting entrepreneurs if founder status company age and growth rate are useful definitions of entrepreneurship they should point to a configuration of factors that together comprise a profile of an entrepreneur in predicting what configuration of factors will emerge this article adopts a strategic adaptation perspective low and macmillan 1988 to argue that differences between entrepreneurs and nonentrepreneurs spring from divergent thought processes and personal attributes of individuals who face the question of whether and how to enter business for themselves using the founder nonfounder distinction we view individuals who decide to start a new business rather than buy or manage an existing one as more likely to have previously founded a business have experience in the same industry be higher in risk taking show more type a behavior and be more growth oriented findings from a sample of ceos in the smaller business association of new england indicated that neither of the two tests based on high growth as a definition of entrepreneurial firms proved adept at creating a distinct entrepreneurial profile distinctions based on founder status younger firm status and founder of a younger firm status on the other hand proved effective in creating such profiles dimensions shared by the two founder based definitions of entrepreneurship included company attributes of smaller size and higher roa and ceo attributes of shorter tenure on the job previous experience in the same industry and higher risk taking propensity additional attributes showed in the younger company founder group including company attributes of lower liquidity and higher sales growth and personal attributes of having previously founded a business ranking roa as a high priority and external locus of control the distinction based on younger firm status performed well in discriminating among respondents in this study in addition to sharing several variables with the founder based distinctions it alone identified younger firms ceos as having lower education and type a tendencies and higher expectations of children succeeding them in the business as one implication of these findings knowledge of the profiles may help people who deal with these groups to have a better sense of how to interact with and respond to them the young company founder profile for example presents a picture of a relatively small company experiencing high rates of sales growth squeezing all it can from its assets in the face of high comparative liabilities because the company is young its founder has relatively short tenure but may well have had previous experience in the industry and have previously founded a company personally the founder is a risk taker who is external in locus of control and places high priority on roa if this configuration holds firm in future research those who deal frequently with entrepreneurs such as bankers venture capitalists consultants accountants and lawyers will be able to use a few identifying factors such as founder status and age of firm to draw reasonable inferences about a host of other characteristics of their clients the attempt to profile the entrepreneur in recent years thought to be futile may yet prove viable