exploring policy options for a transition to sustainable heating system diffusion using an agent based simulation change in home heating to more efficient and renewable systems is important for a sound climate policy the present paper aims to identify potential interventions for the uptake of wood pellet heating in norway using an agent based model abm the theoretically based empirically founded agent based simulation demonstrates that financial support i e a stable wood pellet price and technical development i e functional reliability improvement have to be established all at the same time for a successful wood pellet market to start furthermore a soft intervention through persuading households to use environmentally beneficial heating system is not a promising driver for wood pellet diffusion limitations and suggestions for future work are also discussed

an analysis of the optimum renewable energy portfolio using the bottom up model focusing on the electricity generation sector in south korea abstract the deployment of renewable energy is considered as one of the important alternative solutions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions caused by electricity generation as one of the key measures for promoting the deployment of renewable energy the renewable portfolio standard rps which obligates power operators with a power equipment capacity of 500 mw or larger excluding renewable energy equipment to supply over a specific portion of their total electricity generation output in the form of renewable energy was enacted in south korea in 2012 however there are still many disputes concerning the appropriate renewable energy deployment goal and the optimum portfolio for each renewable energy source which enable to minimize the economic burden while achieving the deployment target therefore this paper intends to deduce the optimum portfolio up to 2050 based on explicit representation of renewable energy technologies and analyze the cost effect using the bottom up energy system analysis model of electricity generation sector in south korea the result indicates that the potential for a reduction of the cost of pv was the highest and that in the long term it would account for the highest portion of the renewable energy portfolio as it was the most cost competitive technology the additional cost for increasing the renewable deployment target 20 compared with the 3rd energy basic plan was predicted to be between 107 and 115 usd mw h therefore the renewable energy will be able to play a greater role in reducing ghg emission if the r d to reduce investment and operation cost of pv and wind power is conducted successfully

analysis of new product diffusion using a four segment trial repeat model a four segment trial repeat model is developed to model sales of a frequently purchased product in the early stage of the product s life cycle the model can be calibrated using aggregate data alone two versions of the model one emphasizing the competitive aspect of marketing communications and another emphasizing the informative aspect are estimated from data on 21 newly launched pharmaceutical products the model provides valuable diagnostics such as an early estimate of the long run market share of the new product a decomposition of total sales into trial sales due to marketing activities trial sales due to word of mouth and repeat sales the changing composition of the trial market and repeat market over time and the time when the trial market is expected to be saturated in addition the effectiveness of the entrant s marketing efforts word of mouth communication and buyers trial experience are analyzed with the model a cross sectional analysis based on the empirical estimation results of our model reveals interesting insights into product introduction strategies we find that 1 the effectiveness of the firms communication activities on trial is related mainly to product quality attributes and market growth whereas that of word of mouth is associated with product class characteristics and market competitiveness and 2 the effect of product trial on repeat purchases is related mainly to product quality attributes and various market characteristics such as size growth competitiveness and familiarity

support systems for the diffusion of renewable energy technologies an investor perspective concern over climate change impacts and the projected depletion of fossil fuels has urged more governments to adopt policies that stimulate the diffusion of renewable energy technologies ret with an increasingly diverse suite of support instruments the question emerges as to which instruments or combinations are able to achieve faster more substantial diffusion results although various support instruments were extensively addressed in policy studies there is still no consensus this is partly because many policy studies take a policy maker approach in comparing support instruments leaving relationships between policy design and policy results as a black box this paper proposes an investor oriented perspective to analyze the diffusion potential of support systems for ret the main argument is that it is not the type of support instrument but rather its risk profitability characteristics that influence investor behavior and the rate of diffusion the two instruments most frequently discussed and compared are the feed in tariff and the quota model the analysis in this paper concludes that policy design is crucial while often feed in tariffs are applauded and quota system feared feed in tariffs may also bring about disappointing diffusion results when poorly designed while quota systems may be also conceived as attractive instruments for independent power producers

assessing the regional economic impacts of renewable energy sources a literature review abstract the transition of the global energy system is one of the main trends that offers opportunities as well as challenges for the economy most literature evaluates the impact of that transition at a national level that view is broadened towards a regional scale due to the lower energy density of many renewable energy sources renewable energy generation will be more decentralised leading to potentially significant changes in the regional economy when transitioning to a renewable energy system in this paper the current literature and methods of assessing regional economic impacts of a transition to renewable energy generation is reviewed the findings suggest an overall need to clearly define the topics such as technologies that are assessed and the evaluated time period a guideline for a regional impact assessment is provided focusing on the suitability of applied impact assessment methods employment ratios supply chain analyses input output models and computable general equilibrium models

an economic analysis of crime rates punishment and the social consequences of crime a number of works on the economics of crime have appeared following becker s 1968 seminal article on crime and punishment these recent analyses focus on the amount of committed crime as a central concept they ask how much crime will be committed as a function of the amount of resoiurces devoted to crime prevention and how much crime should be allowed if crime prevention is to be socially efficient this point of departure is not unique to economic analyses of crime it is also common in traditional criminology for instance the criminal statisticians sellin and wolfgang 1964 have constructed a measure of the social consequences of crime consisting of a weighted average of the amounts of different crimes committed in this paper we will argue that such a focus on the amount of crime actually committed as a bad in its own right is misleading many types of crime e g thefts and fraud give rise to private transfers which in themselves involve no social costs or gains however the resources which potential offenders and victims expend to carry out and hinder crimes do constitute costs for society tullock 1967 thus if resources are successfully devoted to protection against crime then the total costs of crime can be substantial while the number of crimes committed is small in addition since protection is motivated by crimes prevented and not by crimes actually committed there will in general exist no simple monotone relationship between the amount of committed crime and the social cost of crime

diffusion of renewable energy technologies in south korea on incorporating their competitive interrelationships renewable energy technologies rets have attracted significant public attention for several reasons the most important being that they are clean alternative energy sources that help reduce greenhouse gas emissions to increase the probability that rets will be successful it is essential to reduce the uncertainty about its adoption with accurate long term demand forecasting this study develops a diffusion model that incorporates the effect of competitive interrelationships among renewable sources to forecast the growth pattern of five rets solar photovoltaic wind power and fuel cell in the electric power sector and solar thermal and geothermal energy in the heating sector the 2 step forecasting procedure is based on the bayus 1993 manage sci 39 11 1319 1333 price function and a diffusion model suggested by hahn et al 1994 marketing sci 13 3 224 247 in an empirical analysis the model is applied to the south korean renewable energy market

wind power development in sweden global policies and local obstacles abstract recently the swedish government adopted a national planning goal of a yearly wind power generation of 10 twh by 2015 implying a substantial increase from the current 0 6 twh level in this paper we provide an economic assessment of the potential for future wind power investments in sweden in close conjunction with an analysis of the legal attitudinal and policy related uncertainties that face a wind mill investor it is shown that the economics of swedish wind power is negatively affected by a the lack of policy stability b public criticism at the local level and in particular c the legal provisions governing the assessment of the environmental impacts of wind mills and the planning procedures for mill location while national and global energy policies as well as the general public point out wind power as particularly environmentally friendly most of the objections to its expansion at the local level tend to have environmental origins the interests of those who object to wind mill installations gain strong legal protection and the municipal territorial planning monopoly in sweden implies that it is hard to make national energy policy goals heard at the local implementation stage compared to its competitors wind power is the technology that tends to have the most to loose from the risk and uncertainties created by this investment environment the paper identifies and discusses a number of ways in which the national policy interests could be strengthened at the local level we discuss the role of citizen participation as well as solutions within the realms of the legal system moreover since the diffusion of wind power encounters the most strident legal and attitudinal obstacles where it interferes with competing land uses a move offshore appears to be an efficient strategy from the perspective of a wind mill investor a stronger political commitment to wind power expansion in legal provisions as well as in the form of long run stability in policy instrument implementation will probably be necessary to attain the 2015 policy goal

diffusion of new products empirical generalizations and managerial uses the diffusion model developed by bass bass f m 1969 a new product growth model for consumer durables management sci 15january 215 227 constitutes an empirical generalization it represents a pattern or regularity that has been shown to repeat over many new products and services in many countries and over a variety circumstances numerous and various applications of the model have lead to further generalizations modifications and extensions of the model have lead to further generalizations in addition to the empirical generalizations that stem from the model we discuss here some of the managerial applications of the model

horizontal and vertical intra industry trade an empirical test of the homogeneity hypothesis in this paper we study if and how country specific factors affect intra industry trade iit when heterogeneity among sectors is allowed for the paper is novel in that it is the first that addresses an issue raised by greenaway et al oxford bulletin of economics and statistics 1999 61 365 specifically employing data on a sample of oecd countries over a 10 year period 1997 1998 we build on and take forward a methodology pioneered by balassa and bauwens economic journal 1987 97 923 to study the determinants of horizontal and vertical iit using a multi industry approach in doing this we seek to avoid the more extreme measurement problems by allowing for heterogeneity among sectors when country specific factors are analysed and among countries when industry specific factors are considered the results are compared to those obtained using the traditional method that does not consider intersectoral heterogeneity we find that the two models yield statistically different results moreover the tests regarding the choice of model that is econometric tests designed to compare one model with another when different sets of explanatory variables are used confirm the relevance of intersectoral heterogeneity in affecting iit to the best of our knowledge a similar analysis has not yet appeared in the empirical literature on iit

testing for the presence of some features of increasing returns to adoption factors in energy system dynamics an analysis via the learning curve approach the purpose of this paper is to explain the sources of energy system lock in it presents a comparative analysis of the respective contributions of some features of increasing returns to adoption factors i e learning by doing learning by searching and returns to scale effects in explaining the technological change dynamics in the energy system the paper is technically based on a critical analysis of the learning curve approach econometric estimation of learning and scale effects inherent to seven energy technologies were performed by the use of several learning curve specifications these specifications permit to deal with some crucial issues related to the learning curve estimation which are associated with the problem of omitted variable bias the endogeneity effects and the choice of learning indicators results show that dynamic economies from learning effects coupled with static economies from scale effects are responsible for the lock in phenomena of the energy system they also show that the magnitude of such effects is correlated with the technology life cycle maturity in particular results point out that 1 the emerging technologies exhibit low learning rates associated with diseconomies of scale which are argued to be symptomatic of the outset of the deployment of new technologies characterized by diffusion barriers and high level of uncertainty 2 the evolving technologies present rather high learning rates meaning that they respond quickly to capacity expansion and r d activities development 3 conventional mature technologies display low learning rates but increasing returns to scale implying that they are characterized by a limited additional diffusion prospects

endogenous implementation of technology gap in energy optimization models a systematic analysis within times g5 model evaluation of global diffusion potential of learning technologies and their timely specific cost development across regions is always a challenging issue for the future technology policy preparation further the process of evaluation gains interest especially by endogenous treatment of energy technologies under uncertainty in learning rates with technology gap across the regions in global regional cluster learning approach this work devised implemented and examined new methodologies on technology gaps a practical problem using two broad concepts of knowledge deficit and time lag approaches in global learning applying the floor cost approach methodology the study was executed in a multi regional technology rich and long horizon bottom up linear energy system model on the integrated markal efom system times framework global learning selects highest learning technologies in maximum uncertainty of learning rate scenario whereas any form of technology gap retards the global learning process and discourages the technologies deployment time lag notions of technology gaps prefer heavy utilization of learning technologies in developed economies for early reduction of specific cost technology gaps of any kind should be reduced among economies through the promotion and enactment of various policies by governments in order to utilize the technological resources by mass deployment to combat ongoing climate change

initiating a sustained diffusion of wind power the role of public private partnerships in spain the literature on policy approaches for the market support of renewable electricity is dominated by narrow conceptualizations of policy referring mostly to direct instruments for economic feasibility such approaches often led to unsatisfactory explanations of diffusion results this is the case of wind power diffusion in spain the success of which is typically credited to the feed in tariff instrument this paper offers an alternative explanatory account for wind power diffusion in spain it is argued that diffusion can be explained by a less obvious policy of stimulating investments by means of public private partnerships ppps the three legal frameworks for economic feasibility applicable up to 2004 harbored high economic risks although projects could have high profitability because of generous investment subsidies up to mid 1990s most investments were based on ppps to address the risk perceptions of early investors fully private partnerships now dominate investments though ppps have not disappeared next to winning investors confidence the ppp policy led to an investment culture whereby partnership investments dominate by 2000 95 7 of the installed wind capacity was owned by partnerships and only 4 3 by individual companies partnerships invest in larger projects have ambitious investment plans and these lead to a high diffusion tempo

the asymmetric effect of endowments on vertical intra industrial trade este articulo trata de analizar los determinantes del comercio intra industrial vertical en espana con una muestra de paises extensa se contrasta empiricamente la hipotesis de la ventaja comparativa con esta finalidad hemos construido series de capital fisico humano y tecnologico en media cuando se utiliza la estimacion mco las diferencias en dotaciones suponen una limitacion al comercio intra industrial vertical usando la tecnica de regresion por cuantiles se observa que este efecto negativo disminuye en terminos absolutos a medida que los flujos de comercio intra industrial vertical se incrementan y en algunos casos llegan a ser positivos en los cuantiles altos de la distribucion este resultado ofrece evidencia a favor de una version reducida de la hipotesis de la ventaja comparativa

supplementing an emissions tax by a feed in tariff for renewable electricity to address learning spillovers abstract in the presence of learning spillovers related to renewable energy technologies an optimal strategy to mitigate climate change should complement an emissions tax by a subsidy for renewables this article addresses the question how such subsidy should be designed it is shown that the widely used approach of a revenue neutral fixed feed in tariff can yield an optimal outcome under restrictive conditions only it has to be adapted continuously as the electricity price changes moreover funding the tariff by a surcharge on the electricity price has important implications for the design of the emission tax the optimal tax rate has to be below the pigovian level differentiated across fossil fuels and adapted over time as the patterns of technological development change these requirements may pose a formidable challenge for practical decision making however it is important to point out that the eventual choices made with respect to the design and funding of a feed in tariff have to be based on a careful and more comprehensive policy assessment including inter alia economic effects beyond the electricity sector and existing institutional constraints

a contractarian theory of property rights and crime as was noted long ago war like distributional squabbles which divert resources from socially productive uses will persist in a world without government in this paper we show that all agents can gain ex ante from the institution of a social contract which establishes property rights and levies a tax in order to finance a criminal justice system where punishment is threatened for violations of property rights these ex ante gains hold even for individuals who may be harshly punished ex post the optimal social contract i e the optimal level of enforcement of property rights is also characterized

a new product growth for model consumer durables this article originally appeared in management science january 1969 volume 15 number 5 pp 215 227 published by the institute of management sciences a growth model for the timing of initial purchase of new products is developed and tested empirically against data for eleven consumer durables the basic assumption of the model is that the timing of a consumer s initial purchase is related to the number of previous buyers a behavioral rationale for the model is offered in terms of innovative and imitative behavior the model yields good predictions of the sales peak and the timing of the peak when applied to historical data a long range forecast is developed for the sales of color television sets

forecasting the impact of renewable energies in competition with non renewable sources abstract the diffusion dynamics of traditional and clean energy systems in the energy mix are studied in a competition modeling where their interacting life cycles are jointly described competition has only been considered recently since diffusion competition models are not easy to be implemented data are represented by yearly consumptions in mtoe of traditional sources coal oil gas and nuclear systems and a selection of renewable sources hydroelectric wind and solar power for the us europe china and india from 1965 to 2014 for each case we will investigate whether the diffusion level of traditional sources sustains or prevents the spread of renewables and vice versa for the us and europe we will take into account the link between the 2008 2009 financial crisis and the slowdown in consumptions as a matter of fact the energy sector is characterized by uncertainty due to the depletion of finite energy sources the technological and economical problems of renewables and the hypothesis of shale gas as a possible bridge to renewables that could delay the spread of latter ones in this scenario six year forecasts are provided until 2020

effects of technological learning and uranium price on nuclear cost preliminary insights from a multiple factors learning curve and uranium market modeling this paper studies the effects of returns to scale technological learning i e learning by doing and learning by searching and uranium price on the prospects of nuclear cost decrease we use an extended learning curve specification named multiple factors learning curve mflc in a first stage we estimate a single mflc in a second stage we estimate the mflc under the framework of simultaneous system of equations which takes into account the uranium supply and demand this permits not only to enhance the reliability of the estimation by incorporating the uranium price formation mechanisms in the mflc via the price variable but also to give preliminary insights about uranium supply and demand behaviors and the associated effects on the nuclear expansion results point out that the nuclear cost has important prospects for decrease via capacity expansion i e learning by doing effects in contrast they show that the learning by searching as well as the scale effects have a limited effect on the cost decrease prospects conversely results also show that uranium price exerts a positive and significant effect on nuclear cost implying that when the uranium price increases the nuclear power generation cost decreases since uranium is characterized by important physical availability and since it represents only a minor part in the total nuclear cost we consider that in a context of increasing demand for nuclear energy the latter result can be explained by the fact that the positive learning effects on the cost of nuclear act in a way to dissipate the negative ones that an increase in uranium price may exert further results give evidence of important inertia in the supply and demand sides as well as evidence of slow correlation between the uranium market and oil market which may limit the inter fuels substituability effects that is nuclear capacity expansion and associated learning by doing benefits

conflict the sire of exchange violence is the sire of all the world s values robinson jeffers abstract utilizing a model of conflict with two goods three activities production predation and defense the paper shows that uncontested exchange is an impossibility all exchange is contested through a bargaining game extension of a predation game a characterization of an exchange spectrum is developed the metric for these exchange possibilities is based on threats of predation and exploitation i e conflict uncontested exchange walrasian market exchange is but one point along this spectrum and is not robust to exploitation

managing demand and sales dynamics in new product diffusion under supply constraint the bass diffusion model is a well known parametric approach to estimating new product demand trajectory over time this paper generalizes the bass model by allowing for a supply constraint in the presence of a supply constraint potential customers who are not able to obtain the new product join the waiting queue generating backorders and potentially reversing their adoption decision resulting in lost sales consequently they do not generate the positive word of mouth that is typically assumed in the bass model leading to significant changes in the new product diffusion dynamics we study how a firm should manage its supply processes in a new product diffusion environment with backorders and lost sales we consider a make to stock production environment and use optimal control theory to establish that it is never optimal to delay demand fulfillment this result is interesting because immediate fulfillment may accelerate the diffusion process and thereby result in a greater loss of customers in the future using this result we derive closed form expressions for the resulting demand and sales dynamics over the product life cycle we then use these expressions to investigate how the firm should determine the size of its capacity and the time to market its new product we show that delaying a product launch to build up an initial inventory may be optimal and can be used as a substitute for capacity also the optimal time to market and capacity increase with the coefficients of innovation and imitation in the adoption population we compare our optimal capacity and time to market policies with those resulting from exogeneous demand forecasts in order to quantify the value of endogenizing demand

a model of institutional formation within a rent seeking environment abstract this paper presents a game theoretic model in which some fraction of output is appropriated from entrepreneurs entrepreneurs are able to form a league to prevent this appropriation but this might not be individually rational because of either the free rider problem or coordination failure the model also shows that poorer countries are less able to form this league and so might not be able to develop institutions establishing property rights

a general equilibrium model of two group conflict with endogenous intra group sharing rules this paper explores the interactions among intra group sharing rules the competition between two groups over the common pool of output and the allocation of resources between productive and appropriate activities in the interior solution the use of egalitarian method for the distribution of group income among members plays no distributional role but only affects the allocation of resources it releases resources into the productive sector from the group that adopts the egalitarian rule by making the internal conflict among the members less intense the sequential choice of intra group sharing rules and resource allocations produce the adoption of fully egalitarian intra group sharing rules in both groups these rules minimize the amount of resources allocated to appropriate activities and maximize the welfare level of all individuals in the economy this result suggests that inter group competition with the use of egalitarian principle in the distribution of group income among group members which is not available to the hobbesian state of nature is one of the cheaper social devices in restraining individuals from engaging in costly appropriative activities

effect of price on the demand for durables modeling estimation and findings the focus of this article is on the effect of price on the adoption of durables most empirical research on the timing of adoption of new products has centered on the growth without explicitly incorporating any marketing mix variables recently some researchers have pursued ways of enriching the bass model by including such controllable variables as price and advertising our interest in this article is to propose diffusion models that incorporate price we use these models to study the price effect for four durable products we report the estimation results and discuss the insights they provide in particular our empirical results suggest that price influences consumers decisions on whether or not to buy and the diffusion process governs the timing of purchase given the decision to buy moreover we find that the estimated coefficient of imitation in the bass model is understated if price is inappropriately modeled

technical change dynamics evidence from the emerging renewable energy technologies abstract this paper explores the respective contributions of the effects of learning and returns to scale in the capital costs reduction pattern experienced by renewables causality analysis and econometric estimation of learning curves are performed on two emerging renewable energy technologies namely pv and wind learning effects appear as an essential driving force a result which concurs with the widely acknowledged importance of experience in technical progress inherent to economic growth the existence of non constant and flexible returns to scale are further highlighted their effect on diffusion dynamics is shown to be potentially considerable particularly at the outset of innovation deployment however returns to scale are suggested to be constant in the long term institutional commitment in supporting innovation therefore seems justified both on the basis of the occurrence of learning effects and diseconomies of scale these findings appear to be essential to the dynamics of innovation diffusion and market structure

marketing mix variables and the diffusion of successive generations of a technological innovation abstract research addressing the diffusion of successive generations of technological innovations has generally ignored the impact of marketing mix variables as a result there have been several calls for the development of multiple generation models that incorporate marketing mix variables the authors develop a model of first time sales and subscriptions for successive generations of a technological innovation which explicitly captures the effects of marketing mix variables through a proportional hazards framework the empirical analysis estimates the impact of price for two generations of cellular telephones in a european country the results suggest that there are important substantive insights to be gained from the parameter estimates for this marketing mix variable when intergenerational interdependencies are considered for example although the time path of the estimated price elasticities in a multiple generation setting closely follows those reported previously for single generations the auth

a real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies this study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis the model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year by year basis thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price sensitive as the electricity market deregulation proceeds reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes such as time of use pricing unbundled electricity services and choice of supplier the empirical analysis is based on data for the turkish electricity supply industry apart from general implications for policy making it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies

a diffusion model incorporating product benefits price income and information we start by assuming that a major benefit of many new durable products such as dishwashers and microwave ovens is time savings others such as vcrs also enhance the value of our leisure time using a household production framework we demonstrate that a utility maximizing individual will have a reservation price for the product which is a function of the product benefits and his wage rate by assuming that the wage rate has an extreme value distribution across the population we are able to derive for the aggregate process an income price dependent logistic adoption equation we then allow for the possibility that certain eligible consumers may delay their purchase of the product because they are unaware that it exists are suspicious of its quality or expect its price to fall unawareness uncertainty and hope for further price declines are assumed to decrease with the increase in the number of previous adopters the resulting diffusion model has the property that the product life cycle phenomenon can be explained jointly or separately by the income price process and the awareness uncertainty expectations process using data on household income on durable penetration within different income classes and on first purchase sales the aggregate diffusion model and its premises are tested and supported it is found that both the income price and awareness uncertainty expectations processes are at work however the dependence of the awareness uncertainty expectations delay process on the number of previous adopters e g word of mouth type effect exists only in certain product categories and is usually relatively weak it is demonstrated that if the word of mouth type effects are weak a price skimming strategy is optimal for a monopolist and also is likely to be implemented by oligopolists the sales forecasting implications of the model also are pursued

innovation diffusion in the presence of supply restrictions innovation diffusion models are developed to represent the spread of a new product from its manufacturers to its ultimate users in the marketplace however the growth of a new product can be retarded by supply restrictions such as the unavailability of the product due to limitations on the production capacity or difficulties encountered in setting up distribution systems in the presence of supply restrictions diffusion models must be developed to capture the dynamics of supply restrictions and to allow management to evaluate the impact of such supply restrictions on the growth of a new product in the market place based on the bass innovation diffusion model the objective of this paper is to suggest a parsimonious diffusion model that integrates the demand side dynamics with the supply side restrictions the sensitivity of innovation diffusion patterns in the presence of supply restrictions is examined an application examining the diffusion of new telephones in israel is documented to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model

green growth in oil producing african countries a panel data analysis of renewable energy demand renewable energy has been considered as the solution to the hydra headed problems of energy security energy access and climate change especially in africa in addition renewable energy sources such as the sun wind wave and waste abound in africa are in need of investment in order to provide both policy and investment guide this study investigates the drivers of renewable energy demand in oil producing african countries three panel data models a random effect model a fixed effects model and a dynamic panel data model are used to estimate renewable energy demand with a comprehensive set of determinants the estimation results indicate that the main drivers of renewable energy in oil producing african countries are real income per capita energy resource depletion per capita carbon emissions per capita and energy prices the study recommends that policies should encourage the consumption of commercial sources of renewable energy to attract the needed investments

property crimes and the police an empirical analysis of swedish data the results of a study of the impact of police work on property crimes are reported the data base is a cross section of 278 swedish municipalities during the years 1975 and 1976 a three equation simultaneous model is compared with a simpler two equation model the results indicate that the simpler system is preferable in the estimates of both models most parameters are significant with the expected signs police work seems to deter crime as expected

the impact of competitive entry in a developing market upon dynamic pricing strategies this paper analyzes dynamic pricing strategies for new durable goods in a two period context the first period is characterized as a monopoly market structure for a new product having dynamic demand the second period begins when a new firm enters the market and thereby changes the market structure to a duopolistic one we begin by analyzing the pricing strategies of three types of monopolists nonmyopic myopic and surprised a nonmyopic monopolist is a first entrant who perfectly predicts the competitive entry a myopic monopolist totally discounts the duopolistic period and a surprised monopolist is a first entrant who has the longer time horizon of the nonmyopic monopolist but who does not foresee the competitive entry our results indicate that the nature of these pricing strategies may be quite different it is optimal for the nonmyopic firm to price its product at a higher level than the myopic monopolist additional results indicate under what circumstances the surprised monopolist will p

high definition television assessing demand forecasts for a next generation consumer durable high definition television promises to be the next generation of television this technology has broad implications for consumer markets as well as the underlying manufacturing technology development and r d activities of firms under increasing pressure from various groups the u s government must make major policy and funding decisions based on its assessment of the likely demand for hdtv three published reports which forecast sales of hdtv after its scheduled introduction in the mid 1990s are available unfortunately these forecasts offer widely differing perspectives on hdtv s potential this paper presents an approach that links product segmentation based on historical demand parameters and marketing and manufacturing related variables and demand forecasting for new products the published hdtv forecasts are then assessed using this segmentation scheme differing from the congressional budget office s earlier evaluation this analysis indicates that one report is consistent with historical d

endogenous authoritarian property rights abstract taxation and state enforcement of property rights share many common resources both are involved in determining the revenue of the state due to these interactions taxation and property rights enforcement of a proprietary state are complementary any change in the administrative capacity of the state that increases the taxation rate also increases the level of property rights enforcement and vice versa the capacity and incentive of the proprietary state to tax are also essentially the capacity and incentive to enforce property rights extra enforcement powers of the proprietary state might therefore increase rather than decrease production

intra industry trade and protection which way does the causation go abstract this paper analyses the simultaneous determination of intra industry trade iit and tariffs the results demonstrate that which iit is influenced by tariffs reverse relationship does not hold our results indicate the single equation models can suffer from simultaneity bias

u s protection and intra industry trade the message to developing countries the purpose of this article is twofold first i provide recent evidence on the characteristics of u s intra industry trade with individual countries and regions which can be compared and contrasted with earlier work intra industry trade is defined as the cross hauling of similar goods between trading partners for example the united states exports automobiles to germany and imports automobiles from germany at the same time in the empirical work that follows i use a simple index that equals zero when there is no two way trade in a product and one when exports and imports of a product are equal 2 the present study provides an analysis of recent trade data 1984 and of u s intra industry trade at the four digit sic level that includes intraindustry trade between the united states and other industrialized countries canada japan the european community ec newly industrialized countries brazil mexico and developing regions caribbean basin south america second i examine the possibility that the trade liberalizing effects of intra industry trade are likely to extend to u s trade with developing countries this second issue is particularly important since recent work makes it clear that post kennedy round and post tokyo round protectionism among the industrial countries remains biased against manufactured exports from developing countries 3 the results are significant in three respects first there was consistent evidence that intra industry trade is dominated by cross flows of intermediate goods 4 more specifically intra industry trade occurs primarily in made to order intermediate goods furthermore intraindustry trade occurs predominantly in product lines in which efficient production is small scale production those findings hold not only for

technology and demand forecasting for carbon capture and storage technology in south korea among the various alternatives available to reduce greenhouse gas ghg emissions carbon capture and storage ccs is considered to be a prospective technology that could both improve economic growth and meet ghg emission reduction targets despite the importance of ccs however studies of technology and demand forecasting for ccs are scarce this study bridges this gap in the body of knowledge on this topic by forecasting ccs technology and demand based on an integrated model for technology forecasting a logistic model and patent network analysis are used to compare the competitiveness of ccs technology for selected countries for demand forecasting a competition diffusion model is adopted to consider competition among renewable energies and forecast demand the results show that the number of patent applications for ccs technology will increase to 16 156 worldwide and to 4 790 in korea by 2025 we also find that the united states has the most competitive ccs technology followed by korea and france moreover about 5 million tco2e of ghg will be reduced by 2040 if ccs technology is adopted in korea after 2020

two aggregate games demonstration using a production appropriation model we expand the scope of the two aggregate method by applying it to a situation where many heterogeneous players are free to contribute to both aggregates such situations naturally arise in various resource allocation problems hence our method is useful in many applications a production appropriation model is employed to illustrate how the problem of establishing the nash equilibrium can be reduced from solving n 2 best response functions in n unknowns to solving two consistency conditions in two unknowns we then conduct a comparative static exercise that the conventional approach could not handle easily if at all to demonstrate the power of our method this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

the learning curve and pricing in the chemical processing industries data on 37 chemical products are used to test a number of hypotheses about the learning curve and industrial price behavior the results document a strong and consistent learning effect learning is found to be a function of cumulated industry output and cumulated investment rather than calendar time standard economies of scale appear significant but small in magnitude relative to the learning effect variations in the slope of the learning curve are linked to differences in r d expenditures and capital intensity market concentration is found to be a strong influence on price flexibility and the timing of learningrelated price changes

explaining experience curves for new energy technologies a case study of liquefied natural gas many new energy technologies seem to experience a fall in unit price as they mature in this paper we study the unit price of liquefying natural gas in order to make it transportable by ship to gas power installations all over the world our point of departure is the experience curve approach however unlike many other studies of new energy technologies we also seek to account for autonomous technological change scale effects and the effects of upstream competition among technology suppliers to our surprise we find that upstream competition is by far the most important factor contributing to the fall in unit price with respect to the natural gas business this may have implications for the future development in prices as the effect of increased upstream competition is temporary and likely to weaken a lot sooner than effects from learning and technological change another more general policy implication is that while promoting new energy technologies governments must not forget to pay attention to competition policy

models of technology diffusion abstract the literature on new technology diffusion is vast and it spills over many conventional disciplinary boundaries this paper surveys the literature by focusing on alternative explanations of the dominant stylized fact that the usage of new technologies over time typically follows an s curve the most commonly found model which is used to account for this model is the so called epidemic model which builds on the premise that what limits the speed of usage is the lack of information available about the new technology how to use it and what it does the leading alternate model is often called the probit model which follows from the premise that different firms with different goals and abilities are likely to want to adopt the new technology at different times in this model diffusion occurs as firms of different types gradually adopt it there are actually many ways to generate an s curve and the third class of models which we examine are models of density dependence popularized by population ecologists in these models the twin forces of legitimation and competition help to establish new technologies and then ultimately limit their take up finally we look at models in which the initial choice between different variants of the new technology affect the subsequent diffusion speed of the chosen technology such models often rely on information cascades which drive herd like adoption behaviour when a particular variant is finally selected

learning and the behavior of potential entrants this is the publisher s version also available electronically from https editorialexpress com cgi bin rje online cgi action view year 1984 issue sum page 281 tid 120733 sc 7okbhr2g

swords or plowshares a theory of the security of claims to property this paper develops a general equilibrium model of the allocation of resources among appropriative and productive activities the model emphasizes the distinction between offensive weapons which are the instruments of predation and fortifications which provide defense against predation the analysis of this model shows how the equilibrium security of claims to property is determined the analysis focuses on the possibility of a nonaggressive equilibrium in which no resources are allocated to offensive weapons and claims to property are fully secure we also analyze the complex relation between economic welfare and the security of claims to property we find for example that a relatively poor agent could be better off in an equilibrium with less secure claims to property