macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area country specific versus area wide information abstract this paper compares several time series methods for short run forecasting of euro wide inflation and real activity using data from 1982 to 1997 forecasts are constructed from univariate autoregressions vector autoregressions single equation models that include euro wide and us aggregates and large model methods in which forecasts are based on estimates of common dynamic factors aggregate euro wide forecasts are constructed from models that utilize only aggregate euro wide variables and by aggregating country specific models the results suggest that forecasts constructed by aggregating the country specific models are more accurate than forecasts constructed using the aggregate data

capacity controlled demand side management a stochastic pricing analysis we consider a novel paradigm for demand side management assuming that an aggregator communicates with a household only at the meter imposing a capacity constraint i e a restriction on the total power consumption level within a given time frame consumers are then responsible to adjust the set points of the individual household devices accordingly to meet the imposed constraint we formulate the problem as a stochastic household energy management program with stochasticity arising due to local photovoltaic generation we show how a demand bidding curve for capacity increments can be constructed as a by product of the developed problem and provide a rigorous pricing analysis that results in a probabilistic shadow price envelope to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed approach we compare it with an idealized real time market price set up and show how our analysis can provide guidelines to consumers when selecting a service contract for load curtailment

best policy response to environmental shocks applying a stochastic framework abstract the paper develops a general framework for the analysis of environmental shocks in growing economies endogenous capital investments allow identifying the dual role of capital as a buffer against shocks and a source of pollution we study the effects of recurring natural disasters on optimal growth and efficient environmental policies emissions may cause continuous fluctuations entail discrete and recurring jumps or trigger so called tipping points with large costs to the economy closed form solutions are provided for all the model variants we discuss possible applications in environmental economics and identify current research gaps

nowcasting the real time informational content of macroeconomic data abstract a formal method is developed for evaluating the marginal impact that intra monthly data releases have on current quarter forecasts nowcasts of real gross domestic product gdp growth the method can track the real time flow of the type of information monitored by central banks because it can handle large data sets with staggered data release dates each time new data are released the nowcasts are updated on the basis of progressively larger data sets that reflecting the unsynchronized data release dates have a jagged edge across the most recent months

marginal loss modeling in lmp calculation this paper discusses the pricing of marginal transmission network losses in the locational marginal pricing approach recently deployed in the iso new england iso ne standard market design smd project implemented by alstom s t d energy automation and information eai business the traditional loss model is studied and a new model is proposed the new model achieves more defendable and predictable market clearing results by introducing loss distribution factors to explicitly balance the consumed losses in the lossless dc power system model the distributed market slack reference is also introduced and discussed the lmp components produced by the two models are studied and compared under changes in slack reference numerical examples are presented to further compare the two models

an iterative lmp calculation method considering loss distributions generally the locational marginal price lmp is obtained by solving a linear programming formulation network losses are considered through the preset loss factors based on historical operation information this usually brings errors in the calculated loss under different new scenarios further the congestion component of an lmp is dependent on the choice of the reference bus in this paper a new iterative lmp calculation method is proposed to overcome the aforementioned two drawbacks associated with the traditional lmp calculations at each iteration a linear programming problem for market clearing is solved first losses on branches are considered as fictitious nodal demands at their terminal buses secondly the ac power flow is calculated according to the dispatch results loss factors and fictitious nodal demands are then updated according to the ac power flow solution thus removing the need and dependence on presetting loss factors another important merit is that lmp and its congestion component obtained from the proposed iterative lmp calculation method are independent of choice of the reference bus the effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated on two benchmark systems the importance of obtaining accurate losses and lmps is also demonstrated

two stage stochastic programming model for market clearing with contingencies planning for contingencies typically results in the use of more expensive facilities before disruptions it leads to different prices and energy availability at various network locations depending on how the contingency analysis is performed in this paper we present a two stage stochastic programming model for incorporating contingencies the model is computationally demanding and made tractable by using an interior point log barrier method coupled with benders decomposition the second stage optimal recourse function rf defines the most economically efficient actions in the post contingency state for returning the system back to normal operating conditions the approach is illustrated with for two examples small with 8 buses 11 branches and ieee medium scale with 300 buses 411 branches

real time macroeconomic monitoring real activity inflation and interactions the authors sketch a framework for monitoring macroeconomic activity in real time and push it in new directions in particular they focus not only on real activity which has received most attention to date but also on inflation and its interaction with real activity as for the recent recession the authors find that 1 it likely ended around july 2009 2 its most extreme aspects concern a real activity decline that was unusually long but less unusually deep and an inflation decline that was unusually deep but brief and 3 its real activity and inflation interactions were strongly positive consistent with an adverse demand shock this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

uniqueness and indeterminacy on the dynamics of endogenous growth abstract in this paper we study the dynamics of endogenous growth both in the model of lucas and in a generalization that incorporates a labor leisure choice we characterize the regions of the parameter space that give rise to unique equilibria as well as the regions that yield a continuum of equilibria with positive growth rates we find that such multiple equilibria exist for empirically very plausible parameters in particular when the lucas model is modified to incorporate endogenous labor journal of economic literature numbers e00 e3 o40

gdp nowcasting application and constraints in a small open developing economy despite data limitations an attempt is made to find out if a gdp nowcasting model can provide reliable forecasts for a small open economy two competing bayesian vector autoregressive models are tested rigorously to obtain the optimal model by minimizing in sample forecasting errors the main finding of this study is that gdp nowcasting can produce reliable results for a small open economy despite the unavailability of sufficient data sets and the lack of high frequency indicators

effective climate policies in a dynamic north south model abstract the paper develops a two region endogenous growth model with climate change affecting the countries capital stocks negatively we compare two different policies aimed at supporting less developed countries climate mitigation by developed countries which moderates the increase in stock pollution and hence capital depreciation and income transfers in the tradition of development aid under a mild set of assumptions we find that active climate policies are more efficient for developed economies and also remarkably better for developing countries than additional development aid the main reason is the difference between the two policies with respect to their effects on economic growth the results are robust with respect to possible model extensions

efficient dynamic pollution taxation in an uncertain environment this paper analyzes efficient pollution taxation within a stochastic model of endogenous growth pollution is a by product of production and causes disutility furthermore the productivity which results from environmental quality is uncertain this reflects e g uncertain capital depreciation induced by natural disasters like hurricanes or floods this uncertainty is shown to raise an ambiguous impact on the optimal pollution level as well as on optimal environmental taxation market equilibrium turns out to be suboptimal since the households mis perceive their individual impact on pollution conditions for welfare maximizing pollution taxation are stated and it is shown that a direct pollution tax is not appropriate to yield pareto optimal growth instead a linear capital income tax together with a linear abatement subsidy build an efficient tax scheme if secondarily the governmental budget is balanced moreover an increase in the riskiness of environmental productivity may even lead to an increase in the optimal pollution level and to a decrease in optimal environmental taxation depending predominantly on the preference parameters

are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries external shocks such as commodity price fluctuations natural disasters and the role of the international economy are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low income countries the author quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector autoregression var approach and compares their relative contributions to output volatility in low income countries vis a vis internal factors he finds that external shocks can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low income country internal factors are the main source of fluctuations from a quantitative perspective the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries

iso net surplus collection and allocation in wholesale power markets under lmp this study uses five bus and 30 bus test cases to explore iso net surplus congestion rent collections and allocations in wholesale power markets with grid congestion managed by locational marginal prices lmps price sensitivity of demand and generator learning capabilities are taken as experimental treatment factors a key finding is that conditions resulting in greater generator capacity withholding hence higher and more volatile lmps also result in greater iso net surplus collections that can be substantial in size a key conclusion is that iso net surplus collections should be used pro actively to mitigate the conditions encouraging generator capacity withholding and hence high and volatile lmps rather than to provide ex post support for lmp payment offsets and lmp volatility risk hedging as is currently the norm

dcopf based marginal loss pricing with enhanced power flow accuracy by using matrix loss distribution on current days many of the power markets are adopting the practice of marginal loss pricing the dc optimal power flow dcopf model is still mostly used for the purpose of market clearing owing to its simplicity robustness and higher speed of convergence within the dcopf framework transmission line losses are represented as additional external loads on the system in the classical dcopf model of marginal loss pricing as implemented in the new england market the aggregated network loss is distributed over the system nodes in a fixed ratio to gain more design flexibility in the distribution of system losses a matrix loss distribution mld framework is developed in this paper maintaining compatibility with financial transmission rights in mld each individual line is considered separately for the purpose of loss distribution the ratio in which the power loss in a certain line is distributed can be different from that in which the power loss in another line is distributed the additional design flexibility thus obtained assists in making a more accurate representation of the power flow the benefit of mld is illustrated through a case study an energy reference independent application of mld is also suggested

automated earnings forecasts beat analysts or combine and conquer prior studies attribute analysts forecast superiority over time series forecasting models to their access to a large set of firm industry and macroeconomic information an information advantage which they use to update their forecasts on a daily weekly or monthly basis a timing advantage this study leverages recently developed mixed data sampling midas regression methods to synthesize a broad spectrum of high frequency data to construct forecasts of firm level earnings we compare the accuracy of these forecasts to those of analysts at short horizons of one quarter or less we find that our midas forecasts are more accurate and have forecast errors that are smaller than analysts when forecast dispersion is high and when the firm size is smaller in addition we find that combining our midas forecasts with analysts forecasts systematically outperforms analysts alone which indicates that our midas models provide information orthogonal to analysts our results provide preliminary support for th

natural disasters in a two sector model of endogenous growth using an endogenous growth model with physical and human capital accumulation this paper considers the sustainability of economic growth when the use of a polluting input e g fossil fuels intensifies the risk of capital destruction through natural disasters we find that growth is sustainable only if the tax rate on the polluting input increases over time the long term rate of economic growth follows an inverted v shaped curve relative to the growth rate of the environmental tax and it is maximized by the least aggressive tax policy of those that asymptotically eliminate the use of polluting inputs unavailability of insurance can accelerate or decelerate the growth maximizing speed of the tax increase depending on the relative significance of the risk premium and precautionary savings effects welfare is maximized under a milder environmental tax policy especially when the pollutants accumulate gradually

optimal lmp decomposition for the acopf calculation the objective of this work is to design a suitable rule for the energy reference selection in the ac optimal power flow acopf based locational marginal price lmp calculation in the case of the acopf model the congestion component of the lmp vector exhibits strong dependence on the energy reference this in turn makes the hourly values of financial transmission rights ftrs to be reference dependent and thus is a source of dispute in order to resolve this dispute a direct optimization framework is developed in this work exploring the interrelationship between the congestion components of locational marginal prices at individual buses the objective function and the constraints of this optimization model are carefully designed looking at the true motive of the lmp decomposition at the same time necessary attention is paid so as to ensure revenue adequacy in the ftr settlement the optimization problem that is ultimately to be solved is a simple quadratic programming problem with only one variable and two constraints the effectiveness of the proposed methodology is verified through a case study on a modified ieee 30 bus system the framework developed also unveils several interesting features of the lmp components that were under cover until now

scarcity growth and r d abstract the limits to economic growth due to resource scarcity can be alleviated only by the development of backstop substitutes this paper combines resource based economic growth with r d to reduce the cost of backstop technologies characterizing the entire dynamics of optimal growth and r d processes we find that an economy s growth prospects depend on its type as determined by its production technology and learning ability and by its knowledge capital endowment a wide variety of growth patterns emerges ranging from cases in which an economy that without r d eventually stagnates converges to a steady state is diverted by r d onto a path of sustained growth to cases in which r d is not warranted resource scarcity is shown to encourage r d due to the increased reliance on the backstop technology

the dynamics of foreign direct investments in land and pollution accumulation following the recent increase of foreign direct investments in land this paper studies their possible effects on the development of a local economy to this aim we use a two sector model external and local with heterogeneous agents external investors and local land owners we assume that both sectors are negatively affected by pollution but only the external sector is polluting the local government can tax the external sector s production activities to finance environmental defensive expenditures we first examine the equilibria that emerge in the model from the dynamics of pollution and physical capital and then investigate the conditions for the coexistence of the two sectors and the impact of the external sector on the revenues of the local population using numerical simulations we show that a revenue increasing path may occur only if the pollution tax is high enough and the impact of the external sector on pollution is low enough otherwise foreign direct investments may end up impoverishing the local population

are there limits to growth a simple theoretical model of pollution is developed that generates an inverted u shape relationship between per capita income and environmental quality this model is then used to study long run growth the same inverted u shape is shown to appear in time series and the prospects for sustained growth are shown to hinge on whether increasingly strict environmental regulation is compatible with a constant rate of return on capital implementation is also studied tax and voucher schemes are shown to have an advantage over direct regulation because they provide the correct incentives for capital accumulation copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

why economic dynamics matter in assessing climate change damages illustration on extreme events extreme events are one of the main channels through which climate and socioeconomic systems interact and it is likely that climate change will modify the probability distribution of the losses they generate the long term growth models used in climate change assessments however cannot capture the eects of such shortterm shocks to investigate this issue a non equilibrium dynamic model nedym is used to assess the macroeconomic consequences of extreme events this exercise allowed us to dene the economic amplic ation ratio as the ratio of the overall production loss due to an event to its direct costs this ratio could be used to improve the cost benet analysis of prevention measures we found also that unlike a solow like model nedym exhibits a bifurcation in gdp losses for each value of the capacity to fund reconstruction gdp losses remain moderate if the intensity and frequency of extremes remain under a threshold value beyond which gdp losses increase sharply this bifurcation may partly explain why some poor countries that experience repeated natural disasters cannot develop applied to the specic issue of climate change this model suggests that changes in the distribution of extremes may entail signican t gdp losses in absence of specic adaptation it suggests therefore that to avoid inaccurately low assessments of damages researchers must take into account the distribution of extremes instead of their average cost and make explicit assumptions on the organization of future economies

risk based locational marginal pricing and congestion management this paper develops a new electricity market clearing mechanism called risk based locational marginal pricing rlmp the rlmp is derived from the risk based security constrained economic dispatch model where risk is modeled to capture the system s overall security level compared to the traditional locational marginal pricing lmp which is composed of three components energy congestion and loss the rlmp consists of an additional risk component the risk component is a price signal to reflect the system s overall security level this paper discusses the features of rlmp and analyzes its benefits over traditional lmps the proposed concept and method are illustrated on a six bus system and the wecc 240 bus system

an energy reference bus independent lmp decomposition algorithm the volatility of the price of electricity in a locational marginal price lmp market makes it necessary to introduce financial price risk hedging instruments the congestion related and marginal loss related revenue surpluses collected by the regional transmission operator rto are proposed to be redistributed to market players it is important to be able to correctly decompose the lmp into its congestion and marginal loss components which are critical for the valuation and settlement of these financial instruments a new energy reference bus independent lmp decomposition model using an ac optimal power flow opf model is presented to overcome the reference bus dependency disadvantage of the conventional approach the marginal effect of the generators output variation with respect to load variation are used as the basis of this decomposition model the theoretical derivation and a proof are given the new model achieves a set of reference bus independent results an example is presented comparing the new model with the conventional model

sustainable growth and the environmental kuznets curve abstract this paper develops an endogenous growth model with pollution and both human and physical capital human capital is produced cleanly and physical capital can be used for pollution control economic growth is sustainable in the long run it is optimal for human capital to grow more rapidly than physical capital output and consumption while pollution declines for realistic parameter values our results differ sharply from stokey s result for an ak technology that sustained economic growth is not optimal the model can generate an environmental kuznets curve a pollution tax or a voucher system can implement the pareto efficiency solution

transmission management for congested power system a review of concepts technical challenges and development of a new methodology transmission networks have some constraints that should be addressed in order to ensure sufficient control to maintain the security level of a power system while maximising market efficiency the most obvious drawback of transmission constraints is a congestion problem that becomes an obstacle to perfect competition among the market participants since it can influence spot market pricing as the power flow violates transmission constraints redispatching generating units is required and this will cause the price at every node to vary this manuscript presents concepts technical challenges and methodology for investigating an alternative solution to the redispatch mechanism and then formulates lmp scheme using an optimisation technique that may well control congestion as the main issue the lmp scheme are varied and improved to take into account the energy price congestion revenue cost of losses as well as the transmission usage tariff by utilising shift factor based optimal power flow sf opf which is derived from the well known dc optimal power flow dc opf model

a theory of disasters and long run growth abstract this paper develops a unified framework in which various types of catastrophic shocks can be simultaneously considered within a standard model of economic growth we first establish the basic existence and equivalence results we then apply the framework to an endogenous growth model to consider the influence of disasters on the long term equilibrium and the transition phase the result shows that while experiencing disasters may lower the average growth rate of the affected countries there exist various channels through which the risk of disasters and long term economic performance are positively correlated this finding reconciles the apparently contradictory evidence in recent empirical studies

the optimal level of monetary aggregation in this paper i have three objectives 1 to describe the aggregation theoretic procedure for selecting the optimal monetary aggregates 2 to survey the available empirical evidence for information on the optimal aggregates and 3 to describe the procedures that should be followed to complete a redefinition of the monetary aggregates although all of the federal reserve board s current official aggregates are rejected as targets some newer aggregates are found to be substantially preferable to the official aggregates the board s staff recently completed the official redefinition of its monetary aggregates in a manner largely unrelated to aggregation and index number theory my own research in recent years has sought to remedy that shortcoming except for monetary aggregates most of the data provided by governmental agencies are constructed in accordance with aggregation and index number theory since aggregation theory can be applied to monetary aggregation 1 i constructed new monetary aggregates that are consistent with the economic theory 2 recently the empiri

adaptation for mitigation this paper develops a two region north and south dynamic model in which regional stocks of effective labor are negatively influenced by the global stock of pollution by characterizing the equilibrium strategy of each region we show that the regions best responses can be strategic complements through a dynamic complementarity effect the model is then used to analyze the impact of adaptation assistance from north to south it is shown that north s unilateral assistance to south thus enhancing south s adaptation capacity can facilitate pollution mitigation in both regions especially when the assistance is targeted at labor protection pollution might increase in the short run but in the long run the level of pollution will decline the adaptation assistance we propose is incentive compatible and pareto improving

the macroeconomic consequences of disasters abstract natural disasters have a statistically observable adverse impact on the macro economy in the short run and costlier events lead to more pronounced slowdowns in production yet interestingly developing countries and smaller economies face much larger output declines following a disaster of similar relative magnitude than do developed countries or bigger economies a close study of the determinants of these adverse macroeconomic output costs reveals several interesting patterns countries with a higher literacy rate better institutions higher per capita income higher degree of openness to trade and higher levels of government spending are better able to withstand the initial disaster shock and prevent further spillovers into the macro economy these all suggest an increased ability to mobilize resources for reconstruction financial conditions also seem to be of importance countries with more foreign exchange reserves and higher levels of domestic credit but with less open capital accounts appear more robust and better able to endure natural disasters with less adverse spillover into domestic production

renewable resources in an endogenously growing economy balanced growth and transitional dynamics abstract we introduce a renewable resource sector into an endogenous growth model of a small economy deriving the transitional dynamic equilibrium the model generates a long run equilibrium in which a resource sector of limited size can coexist with constant ongoing growth elsewhere the key feature of the model is the allocation of labor between harvesting the resource and its use in the final output sector this naturally generates the empirically observed negative relationship between resource abundance and growth we examine both the dynamic and long run responses of the economy to various shocks pertaining to technological production conditions and resource sector parameters

decomposition model and interior point methods for optimal spot pricing of electricity in deregulation environments in this paper an integrated optimal spot pricing model is presented first the proposed model includes the detailed derivation of optimal nodal specific real time prices for active and reactive powers and the method to decompose them into different components corresponding to generation loss and many selected ancillary services such as spinning reserve voltage control and security control the features of the proposed model are discussed in relationship to existing pricing models and classical economic dispatch the model is then implemented by modifying existing newton opf methods through interior point algorithms which can effectively avoid go no go gauge i e highly volatile in the calculation of spot prices case studies on 5 bus and ieee 30 bus systems are reported to illustrate the proposed method

optimum growth and carbon policies with lags in the climate system we study the optimal carbon tax in an economy in which climate change stemming from polluting non renewable resource affects the economy s growth potential our main contribution is to introduce and explore the natural time lag of the climate system between emissions and damages to capital accumulation in an endogenous growth setting this allows us to investigate how optimal climate policy and its interplay with climate dynamics affect long run growth and the transition of the economy towards it without pollution decay a higher speed of emissions diffusion steepens the growth profile of the economy with pollution decay this leads to lower short run but higher long run economic growth during transition poor understanding of the emissions diffusion process leads to suboptimal carbon taxes resource extraction and growth

implementation of lmp ftr mechanism in an ac dc system this paper analyzes the implementability of locational marginal price lmp and financial transmission right ftr mechanisms in the presence of high voltage dc hvdc lines in the regulated i e under the control of system operator network the established framework of lmp ftr mechanism assumes that the system under regulation is fully ac unregulated or private hvdc lines are taken into account within this framework through proxy transaction bids from the line owners however as the flow over a regulated hvdc line has to be controlled by the system operator himself the existing lmp ftr framework becomes insufficient if the system contains or is expanded with regulated hvdc lines the augmentation that should be made to the existing framework to include regulated hvdc lines is explained in this paper it is shown that the flow over a regulated hvdc line can be modeled as a non chargeable bilateral transaction without causing any threat of negative congestion surplus for this power dispatch model revenue adequacy of ftrs can be still ensured by means of the conventional simultaneous feasibility test sft model by utilizing the capacities of dc lines a more general sft model is further developed the modified auction problem is discussed and tested for the non negativity of net auction collection the process of revenue adequate issuance of auction revenue rights is explained finally the relative merit of a regulated hvdc line over a private hvdc line is discussed through a case study

a general formulation for lmp evaluation the evaluation of locational marginal prices or lmps which constitute the basis of the new generation of market design in the u s is a critical need in the side by side operation of electricity markets and power systems their use in various applications such as congestion management and hedging requires specific lmp components in the computations we provide a general formulation for the evaluation of the lmp components by making explicit use of the important role played by the nodes with generators with free capacity on the other hand the lmps of the nodes without generation or with the generators at their limits are a function of the lmps at the marginal nodes and the impacts of the network constraints including the losses in the network in the formulation we pay special attention to the importance of the assumptions and specifications the so called policy specification in the determination of the components we obtain a very general formulation that brings under a single framework the different decomposition approaches that exist the formulation s comprehensiveness brings numerous insights into the various decompositions provides a platform for their comparative analysis and allows us to understand the direct implications and the role of the policy specified moreover the formulation reveals the limitations of any decomposition into the components due to the underlying structural interdependencies among them which is clearly shown in this paper we provide an example to illustrate the capabilities and the insights obtainable with the use of this formulation

can natural disasters have positive consequences investigating the role of embodied technical change it has been suggested that disasters might have positive economic consequences through the accelerated replacement of capital this possibility is referred to as the productivity effect this effect is investigated using a model with embodied technical change in this framework disasters can influence the production level but cannot influence the growth rate in the same way than the saving ratio in a solow like model depending on reconstruction quality indeed accounting for embodied technical change can either decrease or increase disaster costs but is never able to turn disasters into positive events moreover a better but slower reconstruction amplifies the short term consequences of disasters but pays off over the long term regardless the productivity effect cannot prevent the existence of a bifurcation when disaster damages exceed the reconstruction capacity potentially leading to poverty traps c 2008 elsevier b v all rights reserved

building resilience to natural disasters an application to small developing states abstract we present a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of a major natural disaster in addition to permanent damages to public and private capital the disaster causes temporary losses of productivity inefficiencies during the reconstruction process and damages to the sovereign s creditworthiness we use the model to study the debt sustainability concerns that arise from the need to fully rebuild public infrastructure over the medium term and analyze the feasibility of ex ante policies such as building adaptation infrastructure and fiscal buffers and contrast these policies with the post disaster support provided by donors investing in resilient infrastructure may prove useful in particular if it is viewed as complementary to standard infrastructure because it raises the marginal product of private capital crowding in private investment while helping withstand the impact of the natural disaster in an application to vanuatu we find that donors should provide an additional 50 of pre cyclone gdp in grants to be spent over the following 15 years to ensure public debt remains sustainable following cyclone pam helping the government build resilience on the other hand reduces the risk of debt distress and at lower cost for donors

monetary policy in a data rich environment abstract most empirical analyses of monetary policy have been confined to frameworks in which the federal reserve is implicitly assumed to exploit only a limited amount of information despite the fact that the fed actively monitors literally thousands of economic time series this article explores the feasibility of incorporating richer information sets into the analysis both positive and normative of fed policymaking we employ a factor model approach developed by stock j h watson m w diffusion indices journal of business economic statistics 2002 20 2 147 forecasting inflation 1999 journal of monetary economics 44 2 293 that permits the systematic information in large data sets to be summarized by relatively few estimated factors with this framework we reconfirm stock and watson s result that the use of large data sets can improve forecast accuracy and we show that this result does not seem to depend on the use of finally revised as opposed to real time data we estimate policy reaction functions for the fed that take into account its data rich environment and provide a test of the hypothesis that fed actions are explained solely by its forecasts of inflation and real activity finally we explore the possibility of developing an expert system that could aggregate diverse information and provide benchmark policy settings

energy transition under irreversibility a two sector approach in this paper we analyze the optimal energy transition of a two sector economy energy and final goods with exhaustible oil reserves a renewable source of energy and a pollution threat the latter corresponds to a pollution threshold above which a part of the capital is lost following flooding for instance we show that the optimal energy transition path may correspond to a corner regime in which the economy starts using both resources then crosses the pollution threshold and therefore loses a part of its capital at the end the sole adoption of the renewable energy is optimal only in the long run this result is in line with the asymptotic energy transition arguments stating that the transition to clean energy may happen only in the long run we also show that economy reduces the use of energy resource as long as the productivity of capital and energy services is high therefore public policies should promote investments in energy innovation that targets productive sector home appliances and buildings and helps to save both money and energy we extend the present model to allow for additional investment in energy saving technologies our main results show that this additional investment favours the energy transition in the sense that it increases the time within which the economy may experience the catastrophe and the welfare of the society for policy implications economic instruments such as taxes on dirty energy subsidies on clean energy or incentives for energy saving technologies need to be implemented in order to promote the energy transition this is particularly important for developing countries that mostly rely on polluting energy resources and are the most vulnerable to climate change but those economic instruments should be carefully designed in line with the asymptotic energy transition result

pseudo tie generator model implementation for california iso operations and lmp markets a pseudo tie resource model is a means by which a resource i e generation unit or load is operationally transferred from one balancing authority ba area in which the resource is physically located i e native ba to another i e attaining ba area the attaining ba has responsibility for operational control of the pseudo tie resource for both system reliability and electricity market purposes by implementing a pseudo tie the california in dependent system operator corporation iso ba is able to attain control of resources physically located external to its jurisdiction for its ba area services this paper discusses the implementation of a pseudo tie generator ptg with primary focus on its modeling in the iso full network model fnm and participation in the nodal based lmp electricity markets namely the integrated forward market ifm and real time market rtm the ptg has also been discussed in the context of system reliability and market operational principles resource scheduling and bidding outage reporting 5 min real time economic dispatch and pricing furthermore the paper highlights some of the key operational characteristics and differences between pseudo tie and conventional dynamically scheduled resources

a physical flow based approach to allocating transmission losses in a transaction framework a physical flow based approach to allocating transmission losses in a multiple transaction system is presented the allocation scheme is developed using a framework in which the transactions are explicitly represented the proposed scheme is based on expressing losses explicitly in terms of all the transactions in the system an important property of the allocation scheme is its effective capability to deal with counter flows that result in the presence of specific transactions extensive numerical testing indicates that the allocation scheme produces loss allocations that are appropriate and that behave in a physically reasonable manner test results on several systems are presented

divisia monetary aggregates and us gdp nowcasting this article nowcasts us quarterly real gdp growth rate with dynamic factor model dfm using divisia monetary aggregate index divisia m1 m2 m3 and exploits information from a large unbalanced

an overlapping generations model of growth and the environment this article analyzes the potential conflict between economic growth and the maintenance of environmental quality in an overlapping generations model short lived individuals make decisions which have long lasting effects on both factor productivity and the environment the model provides a theoretical explanation of observed correlations between environmental quality and income whereby economic growth is associated first with declines then improvements in environmental quality it suggests circumstances in which multiple pareto ranked steady state equilibria may arise and in which sustained growth of both capital and environmental quality may occur overmaintenance of the environment analogous to dynamically inefficient overaccumulation of capital may emerge copyright 1994 by royal economic society

reactive power constrained opf scheduling with 2 d locational marginal pricing the objective of this paper is to suggest a robust optimal power flow opf framework to perform locational marginal pricing under the scarcity of reactive power the classical opf models employed for market clearing either assume infinite reactive power support or make a fully independent representation of the reactive power load in contrast a potentially more accurate power flow model is adopted in this paper recognizing the dependence of the level of reactive power consumption on the level of active power consumption the relationship is primarily modeled by employing the concept of power factor in addition there can be load requests with different power factors from the same location the corresponding locational marginal prices lmps are found to vary not only spatially but also according to power factors thus a two dimensional lmp variation is finally obtained a consistent definition of financial transmission rights is also provided and the associated lmp decomposition scheme is described the model proposed is studied on the ieee 30 bus system and its distinctive features are noted down and discussed

on the existence of balanced growth equilibrium the authors characterize the class of dynamic models that allow for the most commonly used types of sustained economic growth balanced and asymptotically balanced they show that under a constant returns to scale technology asymptotically constant discount rate and asymptotically constant elasticity of marginal felicity are not only necessary but also sufficient conditions for the existence of a n asymptotically balanced growth equilibrium path the authors provide examples of recursive utility models that accept a n asymptotically balanced growth equilibrium and discuss their implications on cross country differences in growth rates as well as on savings behavior and wealth distribution copyright 1997 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

naturally negative the growth effects of natural disasters abstract growth theory predicts that natural disasters should on impact lower gdp per capita however the empirical literature does not offer conclusive evidence most existing studies use disaster data drawn from damage records of insurance companies we argue that this may lead to estimation bias as damage data and the selection into the database may correlate with gdp we build a comprehensive database of disaster events and their intensities from primary geophysical and meteorological information in contrast to insurance data our geomet data reveal a substantial negative and robust average impact effect of disasters on growth the worst 5 disaster years come with a growth damage of at least 0 46 percentage points that average effect is driven mainly by very large earthquakes and some meteorological disasters poor countries are more strongly affected by geophysical disasters rich more by meteorological events international openness and democratic institutions reduce the adverse effect of disasters

macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes this article studies forecasting a macroeconomic time series variable using a large number of predictors the predictors are summarized using a small number of indexes constructed by principal component analysis an approximate dynamic factor model serves as the statistical framework for the estimation of the indexes and construction of the forecasts the method is used to construct 6 12 and 24 monthahead forecasts for eight monthly u s macroeconomic time series using 215 predictors in simulated real time from 1970 through 1998 during this sample period these new forecasts outperformed univariate autoregressions small vector autoregressions and leading indicator models

locational marginal price calculations using the distributed slack power flow formulation in practice locational marginal prices lmps are usually calculated by assembling their three components the reference price the congestion price and the loss price explicit formulas for calculating the three components based on the single slack power flow formulation can be found in the literature this letter presents the formulas for calculating the three components based on a distributed slack power flow formulation

a novel policy for lmp calculation in distribution networks based on loss and emission reduction allocation using nucleolus theory this paper proposes a new policy to calculate the locational marginal price lmp in the distribution networks containing distributed generation dg the proposed policy is based on remunerating the dg units to reduce the loss and emission of the network lmp at each dg bus is calculated according to the contribution of the dg to the reduced amount of loss and emission an iterative algorithm which is based on the nucleolus theory is proposed to allocate the loss and emission reduction the proposed algorithm will provide a robust state estimation tool for distribution companies discos in the next step of operation the state estimation tool provides the decision maker with the ability to exert its control over private dg units when the loss and emission are minimized also the proposed pricing policy requires decision maker to simply apply its best response strategy to the lmp based on the priority of loss emission and disco s extra benefit the proposed methodology is applied to two realistic distribution networks and efficiency and accuracy of the method are verified