peer group formation in an adverse selection model this paper develops an adverse selection model where peer group systems are shown to trigger lower interest rates and remove credit rationing in the case where borrowers are uninformed about their potential partners and ex post state verification or auditing by banks is costly peer group formation reduces interest rates due to a collateral effect namely cross subsidisation amongst borrowers acts as collateral behind a loan by uncovering such a collateral effect this paper shows that peer group systems can be viewed as an effective risk pooling mechanism and thus enhance efficiency notjust in the full information set up a well known family of adverse selection models in the stiglitz and weiss 1981 tradition demonstrates that when banks are imperfectly informed about the riskiness of borrowers projects and therefore cannot discriminate against risky borrowers interest rates become inefficiently high and worthy borrowers are driven out of the credit market the extent of this problem is substantially magnified when borrowers do not have adequate collateral to secure a loan typically adverse selection combined with lack of collateral leads to prohibitively high interest rates poorly endowed individuals e g students immigrants the unemployed and a vast majority of poor individuals in developing countries often face such high rates and therefore cannot take advantage of profitable investment opportunities a peer group formation system represents a possible solution to the above problem under this system a bank lends to borrowers without collateral on condition that the borrowers organise themselves into groups and that participant borrowers within each group accept to take joint responsibility for a loan thus in addition to repaying their own share of the loan each group member must accept to repay the obligations of their defaulting peers otherwise the entire group is denied access to future refinancing systems of this kind have been very successful in practice they have generated lower interest rates for the rural poor in for example bangladesh the philippines bolivia and the state of arkansas in the united states moreover group lending has also been successfully implemented in large urban areas such in the cities of dhaka and chicago 1

overcoming selection bias in microcredit impact assessments a case study in peru abstract there are several potential sources of bias in microcredit impact assessments this paper uses a panel data set from a peruvian mfi to test for impact of credit on microenterprise profits while controlling for these biases we find that those who will eventually become borrowers have significantly higher incomes than those who will not become borrowers implying that selection into the lending programme is a substantial problem after controlling for this selection we find that an average microentrepreneur who borrows earns significantly higher enterprise profits than one who does not borrow and that naive models which do not control for selection overestimate this impact fixed effects estimates give roughly the same results as the quasi experimental cross section analysis

the microfinance promise in the past decade microfinance programs have demonstrated that it is possible to lend to low income households while maintaining high repayment rates even without requiring collateral the programs promise a revolution in approaches to alleviating poverty and spreading financial services and millions of poor households are served globally a growing body of economic theory demonstrates how new contractual forms offer a key to microfinance success particularly the use of group lending contracts with joint liability for the most part however high repayment rates have not translated into profits and studies of impacts on poverty yield a mixed picture in describing emerging tensions the paper highlights the diversity of innovative mechanisms beyond group lending contracts the measurement of financial sustainability the estimation of economic and social impacts the costs and benefits of subsidization and the potential to reduce poverty through savings programs rather than just credit the promise of microfinance has pushed far ahead of the evidence and an agenda is put forward for addressing critical empirical gaps and sharpening the terms of policy discussion

does right or left matter cabinets credibility and fiscal adjustments abstract this paper tests the widely held assumption that left wing cabinets favor higher public spending and examines whether cabinet ideology affects the persistence of major fiscal adjustments in a panel of large fiscal adjustments in oecd countries during the last 40 years we find evidence that left wing and right wing cabinets are partisan the left tends to reduce the deficit by raising tax revenues while the right relies mostly on spending cuts our testable hypothesis is that cabinets can signal commitment by undertaking fiscal adjustments in ways that are not favored by their constituencies in other words the left gains credibility when it cuts spending while the right becomes more credible when it increases tax revenues probit estimates of the determinants of persistence in fiscal adjustments confirm that spending cuts by the left and tax increases by the right are associated with persistent adjustments the effect is significant for cuts in public spending public consumption wage or nonwage increases in total revenues direct taxes on businesses and other taxes we test for the role of several other determinants of persistence confirming that coalition and majority cabinets are associated with less persistence while periods of high or rising levels of indebtedness favor persistence the estimates of the impact of ideology and other variables on gdp and its components show that it is the size of the spending cut rather than cabinet ideology that is most important

group lending repayment incentives and social collateral abstract in this paper we investigate the impact on repayment rates of lending to groups which are made jointly liable for repayment this type of scheme especially in the guise of the grameen bank in bangladesh has received increasing attention we set up and analyze the repayment game which group lending gives rise to our analysis suggests that such schemes have both positive and negative effects on repayment rates the positive effect is that successful group members may have an incentive to repay the loans of group members whose projects have yielded insufficient return to make repayment worthwhile the negative effect arises when the whole group defaults even when some members would have repaid under individual lending we also show how group lending may harness social collateral which serves to mitigate its negative effect

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

consumption vulnerability to risk in rural pakistan abstract as one of the dimensions of vulnerability this paper empirically investigates the inability of rural dwellers to cope with negative income shocks a variable coefficient regression model is applied to a two period household panel dataset collected in the north west frontier province pakistan an area with high incidence of income poverty and low human development the empirical model allows for a different ability to smooth consumption approximated by a linear function of households attributes and controls for the endogeneity of observed changes in income using qualitative information on subjective risk assessment estimation results show that the ability to cope with negative income shocks is lower for households that are aged landless and do not receive remittances regularly

the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy responses to twin crises we study how effective fiscal and monetary policy responses are during a twin crisis using the dataset provided by laeven and valencia 2008 we identify 57 episodes of twin crises following the methods proposed in baldacci et al 2009 and hutchison et al 2010 we construct the variables measuring the duration and output cost of a twin crisis we find that fiscal policy does not seem to be associated with the shortening of a twin crisis regarding monetary policy we find that monetary tightening is associated with the lengthening of a twin crisis duration consistent with the result in hutchison et al 2010 dealing with a sudden stop crisis in addition our results show that while a mild monetary expansion is effective in reducing a twin crisis duration over expansionary monetary policy loses its effectiveness

the household response to persistent natural disasters evidence from bangladesh we examine the short run economic impacts of recurrent flooding on bangladeshi households surveyed in 2000 2005 and 2010 in 2010 household income and expenditure survey hies households answered a set of questions on whether they were affected by flood and its likely impacts we identify two treatment affected groups by using the self reported data and historical rainfall data based flood risk index we estimate a difference indifference did model to quantify the impacts on income expenditure asset and labour market outcomes and further extend our analysis to different income and expenditure brackets overall we find robust evidence of negative impacts on agricultural income and expenditure intriguingly the extreme poor i e the bottom 15th quintile experience significant positive impacts on agricultural income in the self reported treatment case

the impact of government debt expenditure and taxes on aggregate investment and productivity growth in this paper we evaluate empirically the impact of fiscal policy on two key determinants of long term growth i e private investment and productivity growth we mostly focus on a panel of 20 oecd economies from 1970 to 2009 although we also present some estimates based on data for 80 developing economies our findings suggest that high public debt adversely affects both aggregate investment spending and productivity growth through distortions related to the size of the public sector we also find weak evidence of some non linear effects on productivity with government debt becoming more detrimental in advanced economies when above 85 90 of gdp

environmental shocks and sustainability in microfinance evidence from the great famine of ireland i study the effects of a major environmental shock on microfinance lending by analyzing the irish loan funds during the great famine of ireland i find that funds in districts worse affected by bli

the impact of group lending in northeast thailand abstract much of the literature on group lending focuses on its high repayment rates rather than its goal of promoting borrower welfare most studies that attempt to measure the impact of group lending neglect the issues of self selection and endogenous program placement thus leading to biased estimates of impact one reason for this neglect is the lack of data that would allow for identification of impact this paper surmounts these problems by using data from a quasi experiment conducted in northeast thailand in 1995 1996 program participants were identified in six control villages 1 year prior to receiving loans surveys were then conducted of these control members treatment members in eight older program villages and nonmembers in both types of village this survey design allows for straightforward estimation of impact the results indicate that program loans are having little impact although naive estimates of impact that fail to account for self selection and endogenous program placement significantly overestimate impact

the role of subsidies in microfinance evidence from the grameen bank the grameen bank of bangladesh has been in the vanguard of the microfinance movement showing the potential to alleviate poverty by providing credit to poor house holds part of this success has been built on subsidies in 1996 for example total subsidies evaluated at the economic opportunity cost of capital amounted to about us 26 30 million the evidence helps to explain why institutions like grameen have not just sprung up on their own as private commercial ventures and it underscores the value of openly addressing the costs and benefits of subsidization the paper also describes recent difficulties in maintaining high repayment rates q 1999 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

risk pooling between households and risk coping measures in developing countries evidence from rural bangladesh abstract using data from rural bangladesh i test whether income risks are pooled among villagers between neighboring households and between related households living in different villages i find evidence that risks to food consumption are pooled between neighboring households and between related households but not among villagers as for nonfood consumption i find little evidence of risk pooling except between unrelated neighboring households i also find that while households belonging to a neighborhood network do not take any special measures during an economic hardship those not belonging to any such network try to smooth consumption by selling off livestock and other assets and by getting interest free loans negative income shocks are found to have little effect on labor supply or private transfers

effects of fiscal contractions the importance of preceding exchange rate movements we examine the importance of exchange rate and money supply movements for the macroeconomic outcome of fiscal contractions and find i contractions associated with a favorable macroeconomic outcome have been preceded by significantly higher real depreciations as compared to contractions associated with a less favorable macroeconomic outcome and ii contractions preceded by real depreciations improve expectations about future income and generate higher private consumption growth we discuss policy implications for countries both outside and inside the emu

fiscal adjustments and their effects during the transition to the emu the transition phase to emu hasbeen accompanied by considerable monetaryand fiscal consolidation efforts in the eu this paper analyses this consolidationprocess and its effects on economicactivity in the eu it is tested to what extent fiscal retrenchment efforts havedepressed or stimulated private spending inthe case of the latter non keynesian effectsdominate the traditional keynesianexpenditure effects of government spending taxation and transfer payments

risk and insurance in a rural credit market an empirical investigation in northern nigeria credit contracts play a direct role in pooling risk between households in northern nigeria repayments owed by borrowers depend on realizations of random shocks by both borrowers and lenders the paper develops two models of state contingent loans the first is a competitive equilibrium in perfectly enforceable contracts the second permits imperfect information and equilibrium default estimates of both models indicate that quantitatively important state contingent payments are embedded in these loan transactions but that a fully efficient risk pooling equilibrium is not achieved the research is based on a year long survey in zaria nigeria conducted by the author

productivity health and inequality in the intrahousehold distribution of food in low income countries a model is formulated incorporating linkages among nutrition labor market productivity health heterogeneity and the intrahousehold distribution of food and work activities in a subsistence economy empirical results based on a sample of households from bangladesh indicate that despite considerable intrahousehold disparities in calorie consumption households are averse to inequality furthermore consistent with the model the results also indicate that both the higher level and greater variance in the calories consumed by men relative to women reflect in part the greater participation by men in activities in which productivity is sensitive to health status copyright 1990 by american economic association

ricardian equivalence expansionary fiscal contraction and the stock market a vecm approach the effect of government taxation on future consumption has been explained in three ways the keynesian approach the ricardian equivalence proposition and the german view of expansionary fiscal contraction efc this paper reports empirical evidence on the validity of these explanations by examining the impact of a shock in government taxation upon private consumption once the effect of the stock market is removed a vector error correction model is estimated for the usa japan germany france the uk italy and canada for 1950 1997 and the impulse response functions of a shock in taxation and in expenditure are examined the responses to an increase in government taxation appear to lend support to the efc while the responses to an increase in government expenditure upon consumption suggest that the reaction of private consumption is more in line with the traditional keynesian approach

fiscal stimulus in times of high debt reconsidering multipliers and twin deficits we investigate the impact of fiscal stimuli at different levels of the government debt to gdp ratio for a sample of 17 european countries from 1970 to 2010 this is implemented in an interacted panel var framework in which all coefficient parameters are allowed to change continuously with the debt to gdp ratio we find that responses to government spending shocks exhibit strong nonlinear behavior while the overall cumulative effect of a spending shock on real gdp is positive and significant at moderate debt to gdp ratios this effect turns negative as the ratio increases the total cumulative effect on the trade balance as a share of gdp is negative at first but switches sign at higher levels of debt consequently depending on the degree of public indebtedness our results accommodate long run fiscal multipliers that are greater and smaller than one or even negative as well as twin deficit and twin divergence behavior within one sample and time period from a policy perspective these results lend additional support to increased prudence at high public debt ratios because the effectiveness of fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity or resolve external imbalances may not be guaranteed

tales of fiscal adjustment fiscal adjustments why they can be expansionary this paper examines the evidence on fiscal adjustments in oecd countries from the early 1960s to today the results shed light on the recently observed phenomenon of fiscal tightening that produces non keynesian expansionary effects one interpretation is that a serious fiscal tightening increases demand wealth rises when future tax burdens decline and when interest rates decline credibility is restored and inflation or default risks abate both consumption and investment rise for this effect to produce an expansion the tightening must be sizeable and occur after a period of stress when the budget is quickly deteriorating and public debt is building up another interpretation emphasizes the supply side typically a fiscal consolidation based on tax increases is short lived to be long lasting it must include cuts in public employment transfers and government wages to be politically possible such a policy must be supported by trade unions these measures result in more efficient labour markets and boost the supply side based both on statistical evidence and on a detailed analysis of ten cases of major fiscal adjustment this article provides cautious support to the supply side view without denying a more limited role for the demand side channel alberto alesina and silvia ardagna

keynes and the confidence faeries budgetary constraints were never the primary object of policy for john maynard keynes they were constraints not objectives however keynes identified the psychological channels through which budgetary discipline and other policy conventions might influence investment he even accepted that in rare circumstances the psychological factors might overwhelm direct policy interventions unfortunately the polarisation of the current debate means traditional keynesians are unlikely to search out this aspect of his work and the confidence faeries are unlikely to read any of keynes s work this article draws attention to this aspect of his work

prices credit markets and child growth in low income rural areas in this paper it is argued that fluctuations in child growth in rural areas of bangladesh during and after severe floods in i988 can provide insight into the structure of credit markets a model of intertemporal resource allocation is developed and euler equations relating growth patterns of children to the cost of borrowing by household are then derived from the model the evidence indicates that although some of the variation in growth patterns over the relevant period may be attributed to variation in illness and the price of rice growth patterns for children in landless households were influenced by credit market imperfections this paper links two prominent strands of research in economic development the first strand examines the extent to which households in poor rural economies are able to protect themselves from the adverse weather and other shocks that importantly influence earnings in underdeveloped areas while it has long been thought that credit market imperfections and other forms of market failure make it difficult for poor individuals in these economies to smooth consumption both within and across years there remains some question about the magnitude and pervasiveness of these imperfections while there is evidence that fluctuations in economic conditions result in inefficient allocation of resources e g morduch 1990 rosenzweig and wolpin i993 some recent papers have emphasised the fact that consumption patterns of households in the same village comove in a manner consistent with the idea that a substantial fraction of idiosyncratic variation in income is effectively

what do we learn from recall consumption data in this paper we use two complementary italian data sources the 1995 istat and bank of italy household surveys to generate householdspecific nondurable expenditure in the bank of italy sample that contains relatively high quality income data we show that food expenditure data are of comparable quality and informational content across the two surveys once we properly account for heaping rounding and time averaging we therefore depart from standard practice and rely on the estimation of an inverse engel curve on istat data to impute nondurable expenditure to bank of italy observations and show how we can use these estimates to analyze consumption age profiles conditional on demographics our key result is that predictions based on a standard set of demographic and socioeconomic indicators are quite different from predictions that also condition on simulated food consumption in the sense that their age profile is less in line with the implications of the standard consumer intertemporal optimization problem

the permanent income hypothesis estimation and testing by instrumental variables the permanent income hypothesis with rational expectation is restated estimated and tested by an instrumental variables technique on the postwar u s aggregate time series data the hypothesis is accepted on a consumption series which includes service flows from consumer durables if the consumption series is the one in the national income and product accounts the hypothesis is decisively rejected an explanation is suggested to reconcile the conflicting test results

why are stabilizations delayed when a stabilization has significant distributional implications e g tax increases to eliminate a large budget deficit socioeconomic groups may attempt to shift the burden of stabilization onto other groups the process leading to stabilization becomes a war of attrition each group attempting to wait the others out and stabilization occurring only when one group concedes and bears a disproportionate share of the burden the authors solve for the expected time of stabilization in a model of rational delay and relate it to several political and economic variables they motivate this approach and its results by comparison to historical and current episodes copyright 1991 by american economic association

fiscal adjustments do labor and product market institutions matter this paper investigates the role played by labor and product market institutions in determining the likelihood of initiating and of successfully concluding a fiscal adjustment using data for 16 oecd countries over the period 1970 to 2000 we find that a less generous unemployment benefit system rather than temporary caps on spending e g wage freezes contributes to the success of fiscal consolidation weaker forms of bargaining coordination and centralization facilitate the fiscal adjustment effort on the other hand product market deregulation and more flexible employment protection legislation do not contribute positively to fiscal consolidation

investment effects of departures from governmental present value budget balance the paper investigates whether departures from government borrowing constraints affect the relationship between fiscal policy innovations and changes in the investment level break points or apparent departures from present value budget balance are then identified next the investment deficit relationship is examined prior to and following identified break points in an effort to detect potential changes in behaviour the investment deficit relationship is quantified by examining posterior coverage bounds of impulse response functions britain appears to undergo such a break around 1973 data from this country suggest that significantly more crowding out occurred following the identified breaks in contrast data from other comparison countries that do not appear to have experienced breaks indicate stable investment deficit relationships

the confidence effects of fiscal consolidations we explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence a possible channel for the transmission of fiscal policy that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis panel regressions based on the annual action based datasets of devries et al 2011 and alesina et al 2014a show that consolidations and in particular their unanticipated components affect confidence negatively to obtain a more accurate picture of how consolidations affect confidence we construct a monthly dataset of consolidation announcements so that we can investigate the confidence effects in real time using an event study the results suggest that consumer confidence falls around announcements of consolidation measures an effect likely driven by revenue based measures moreover these effects are highly relevant for european countries with weak institutional arrangements as measured by the tightness of fiscal rules or budgetary transparency the effects on producer confidence are generally similar but weaker than for consumer confidence long term interest rates as a measure of confidence in the sovereign tend to fall around spending based consolidation announcements we have no evidence that the confidence effects of consolidation announcements are worse in slumps than in booms generally strengthening institutional arrangements may help in mitigating adverse confidence effects of consolidations

what do oecd countries cut first when faced with fiscal adjustments expenditure in this article we explore the relationship between components of government expenditure and government size during the period 1970 2007 for a sample of 25 developed countries to shed light on how fiscal discipline might influence public spending composition in the coming years using the pooled mean group estimation we find that fiscal adjustments protect functions that have both a social and productive character such as education and health spending in addition the most productive spending that related to transport and communications is also isolated from budgetary cuts this result shows evidence of governments reacting to the voter s increasing realization that reducing productive expenditures harms long term economic growth by striking a balance between utility and economic growthenhancing expenditure

non keynesian effects of fiscal policy in oecd economies an empirical study this article explores the hypothesis that the propensity to consume out of income varies in a nonlinear fashion with fiscal variables and in particular with government debt per capita using panel data from 18 organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries we examine whether there is any empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that households move from non ricardian to ricardian behaviour as government debt reaches high levels and as uncertainty about future taxes increases our results provide support for this hypothesis and also suggest that private and government consumption are complements in the household utility function

the effects of discretionary fiscal policy on macroeconomic aggregates a reappraisal fiscal stimuli to recover a cascade of academic and layman articles debate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating the economy backed up by different economic models and empirical support this essay surveys the theoretical predictions and recent empirical vector autoregression var evidence on the short run effects of discretionary fiscal policy on macroeconomic aggregates

microcredit and mechanism design individual microcredit loans are not necessarily simple fixed debt obligations but rather may have contingencies and procedures suggested by the theory of mechanism design further group or joint liability lending may not be the single miracle cure practitioners claim nor operate the way the logic of a single theory might suggest there are multiple theories these theories can be distinguished in data on repayment rates and the best fit theory may vary with the environment finally the debate about whether to lend to individuals or lend to groups may be misplaced under simple theories of selection the pareto superior regime which is predicted to emerge varies with exogenous environmental characteristics jel d5 d82 g2 o17

diverse twins analysing china s impact on italian and german exports using a multilevel quantile regressions approach abstractgermany and italy are the largest manufacturing producers in europe and export over 70 of their products to oecd countries while they share many characteristics they are also diverse in term of specialization and destination markets italy has a productive structure largely based on labour intensive sectors while germany is mainly specialized in high tech goods we study whether these characteristics make the two countries vulnerable in different ways to the competitive pressure by emerging economies especially china which experienced the strongest increase in export market share during the last decades we discuss the impact of china on the export performance of italy and germany on oecd markets using data for the period 1995 2009 we implement a novel model to account for two important data characteristics their hierarchical hidden structure captured by a multilevel model and the heterogeneity of the export shares captured by a quantile approach results show that chinese competition

the structural budget balance a preliminary estimation for mexico in this article we estimate the structural budget balance for mexico from 1980 to 2003 using a variation of the methodology proposed by the international monetary fund in addition we propose a fiscal rule that limits deficits in the structural balance as a percentage of gdp such as the ones used by the european union and the chilean government amongst others we also simulate what the conventional balance would have been for mexico if such a rule would have been implemented in 1980

the impact of china on latin america and the caribbean summary the rapid growth of china and its increased integration with the global economy is having both direct and indirect effects on the latin american and caribbean region the paper focuses on the impacts of china on latin american trade and foreign direct investment flows it identifies the main channels through which china s growth is affecting the region and undertakes a preliminary analysis of the impacts on development it is shown that there are winners and losers in the region both at the country and sector level

environmental policy and the economic downturn this paper considers how environmental policies should respond to macroeconomic downturns it first explores the implications of the global economic downturn of 2008 09 for environmental policies focusing in particular on the example of action against climate change the arguments for and against activist fiscal policies in general are then reviewed and the case made that a demand induced downturn provides a very good opportunity to undertake a necessary step change in the public spending component of environmental policies and to start working through a backlog of public investment to improve the environment fiscal policy should be used to improve the allocation of resources across time and space recent fiscal stimuli are considered in the light of this discussion it is also argued that there is little cause to delay the introduction of price signals to internalise environmental externalities but the levels at which such signals should be set requires careful analysis changes over the business cycle may be warranted depending on the nature of the environmental externality and the cause s of the business cycle in question

who benefits more from higher household consumption the intra household allocation of nutrients in china abstract previous studies find that human capital investments in boys are less income elastic than investments in girls attributing this result to favoritism toward boys i show theoretically that it is plausible for more productive or favored household members to have higher income elasticities i then investigate this question empirically utilizing panel data on individual nutrient intake from the china health and nutrition survey chns to analyze how changes in household per capita nutrient intake affect the intra household allocation of nutrients to deal with potential biases due to omitted variables and simultaneity i use measures of rainfall variation as instruments i find that nutritional intakes are more elastic for males especially prime age men than for females and significantly less elastic for the elderly

the impact of government debt on private consumption in oecd countries abstract this paper establishes a non linear relationship between private consumption and government debt in oecd countries with high government debt a fiscal expansion is partly crowded out by a fall in private consumption in contrast in low debt countries private consumption is insensitive to changes in government debt thus fiscal policy is less effective in stabilising business cycle fluctuations at higher levels of government debt

fiscal consolidation under fixed exchange rates abstract we present the fixed exchange rate version of the obstfeld and rogoff model and analyze the international transmission of fiscal policy shocks the welfare effects of an unanticipated contraction in government expenditure in the home country are shown to depend crucially on the way in which world money stock is set if home authorities alone are responsible for pegging the exchange rate a fiscal adjustment leads to a decrease in the real interest rate stimulates private consumption and limits the contraction in world output compared with a situation in which a cooperative scheme is implemented the model is then used to propose a new interpretation of recent events in the eu countries that have enacted restrictive fiscal policies while pegging their currencies to the dm

does contingent repayment in microfinance help the poor during natural disasters abstract microfinances in bangladesh introduced a contingent repayment system beginning in 2002 which allowed rescheduling of savings and installments during natural disasters for affected members this paper is one of the first attempts to evaluate the system employing a unique dataset in using evidence from a flood in 2004 the author found that rescheduling plays the role of a safety net by decreasing the probability that people skip meals during negative shocks by 5 1 per cent this effect is even higher on the landless and females this study attempts to contribute to the issue regarding the poverty reduction effect of microfinances

searching for non linear effects of fiscal policy evidence from industrial and developing countries several recent studies suggest that the response of national saving to scal policy may be non linear in this paper we use two data sets to search for the circumstances in which such non linear response may arise a sample of oecd countries already used in previous studies and a sample of developing countries using more recent world bank data we nd that in both samples non linear e ects tend to be associated with large and persistent scal impulses in the oecd sample the non linearity of the response is stronger for scal contractions than for expansions an increase in net taxes has no e ect on national saving during large scal contractions while it has a positive e ect in less pronounced contractions high or rapidly growing public debt does not appear to be a good predictor of non linear e ects in the world bank sample of developing countries non linearities in the response national saving to scal policy are not limited to large scal contractions and also tend to occur in periods in which debt is accumulating rapidly regardless of its initial level 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classixcation e21 e62 h31

macroeconomic effects of fiscal adjustment a tale of two approaches abstract we investigate the short term effects of fiscal adjustment on economic activity in 20 oecd countries from 1970 to 2009 we compare two approaches the traditional approach based on changes in cyclically adjusted primary balance capb and the narrative approach based on historical records proponents of the latter argue that it captures discretionary fiscal adjustment more accurately than the traditional approach we propose a new definition of capb that takes account of fluctuations in asset prices and reflects idiosyncratic features of fiscal policy in individual countries using this new definition we find that fiscal adjustments always have contractionary effects on economic activity in the short term we find no evidence of expansionary non keynesian fiscal adjustments spending based fiscal adjustments lead to smaller output losses than tax based fiscal adjustment these results are in line with the literature using the narrative approach suggesting that the capb when correctly specified can be used as a measure of fiscal adjustments

the fiscal state dependent effects of capital income tax cuts abstract using the post wwii data of u s federal corporate income tax changes within a smooth transition var this paper finds that the output effect of capital income tax cuts is government debt dependent it is less expansionary when debt is high than when it is low to explore the mechanisms that can drive this fiscal state dependent tax effect the paper uses a dsge model with regime switching fiscal policy and finds that a capital income tax cut is stimulative to the extent that it is unlikely to result in a future fiscal adjustment as government debt increases to a sufficiently high level the probability of future fiscal adjustments starts rising and the expansionary effects of a capital income tax cut can diminish substantially whether the expected adjustments are through a policy reversal or a consumption tax increase also a capital income tax cut need not always have large revenue feedback effects as suggested in the literature

government spending and private consumption some international evidence this paper investigates the relationship between private consumption and publicly provided goods and services for a number of countries the empirical results show that in the aggregate private and government consumption are best described as complementary in the sense that an increase in one raises the marginal utility of the other the strength of this relationship is shown to be negatively affected by the government size these findings are robust across all specifications tried copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

fiscal stabilizations when do they work and why abstract this paper studies the determinants and channels through which fiscal contractions influence the dynamics of the debt to gdp ratio and gdp growth using data from a panel of oecd countries the paper shows that the success of fiscal adjustments in decreasing the debt to gdp ratio depends on the size of the fiscal contraction and less on its composition the rate of growth of output matters too but higher gdp growth does not drive the success of a fiscal stabilization in contrast whether a fiscal adjustment is expansionary depends largely on the composition of the fiscal maneuvre in particular stabilizations implemented by cutting public spending lead to higher gdp growth rates the effects of the composition on growth work mostly through the labor market rather than through agents expectations of future fiscal policy finally the evidence suggests that successful and expansionary fiscal contractions are not the result of accompanying expansionary monetary policy or exchange rate devaluations

when do fiscal consolidations lead to consumption booms lessons from a laboratory experiment according to the expectations channel a fiscal consolidation may give rise to less contractionary or even expansionary effects on consumption despite a decline in current disposable income intuitively people may accumulate a stock of savings in anticipation of the consolidation and may start to reduce their savings to support consumption once it occurs we design a laboratory experiment to study the conditions under which the expectations channel operates our results indicate that fiscal contractions that occur in an unsustainable fiscal environment exert less contractionary effects on consumption which supports the expectations channel we also find that the expectations channel is more pronounced if the fiscal authority can convincingly commit to abstain from tax increases in the future whereas increasing subjects level of awareness by running a transparent policy has only little influence on the outcomes

coping with flood role of institutions in bangladesh the article examines the coping strategies that rural households adopted during the 1998 flood in bangladesh and assesses its impact on household welfare including coping and vulnerability both vulnerability and poverty have in general declined in bangladesh yet 60 of rural households adopted a coping of one type or another and about half of rural households were both vulnerable as well as found to adopt any coping mechanism during the 1998 flood household level panel data analysis confirms that the flood reduced both consumption and asset and forced many households to adopt some coping mechanisms to mitigate the adverse effects of flood consequently natural disaster such as flooding increases households vulnerability to poverty however post flood bumper crop production and operation of targeted programs such as microfinance helped compensate the losses of flood

fiscal policy profits and investment this paper evaluates the effects of fiscal policy on investment using a panel of oecd countries we find a sizeable negative effect of public spending and in particular of its wage component on profits and on business investment this result is consistent with different theoretical models in which government employment creates wage pressure for the private sector various types of taxes also have negative effects on profits but interestingly the effects of government spending on investment are larger than those of taxes our results can explain the so called non keynesian i e expansionary effects of fiscal adjustments jel e22 e62

here today gone tomorrow can dynamic incentives make microfinance more flexible this paper presents a model of microfinance lending to individuals that uses dynamic incentives in the form of access to additional loans to discourage borrowers from strategic default or the unwillingness to repay a loan once a positive outcome is realized we propose an improvement on contracts currently used by microfinance institutions mfis by endogenizing the default penalty while constraining the mfi to maintain sustainable lending operations furthermore accounting for the risks that the poor face by including a negative economic shock we show that under certain circumstances the punishment for default need not be a lifetime without loans

household bargaining and microfinance abstract this paper examines a household bargaining problem where one household member can use external finance to invest in an uncertain business project faced with limited income generating opportunities we show that the household member will consistently choose safe investment projects we also explain why other members of the household can be made worse off from investment even when aggregate household consumption is expected to rise in a dynamic version of the bargaining problem we study incentives for the household to contribute towards loan repayments and identify conditions under which the borrower will transfer control over her loan to her partner

fiscal crises and aggregate demand can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy abstract this paper shows how the power of fiscal policy to affect consumption can vary depending on the level of public debt at moderate levels of debt fiscal policy has the traditional keynesian effects current generations of consumers discount future taxes because they may not be alive when taxes are raised or there will be a larger population available to pay the taxes but when debt reaches extreme values current generations of consumers know there is a high probability that they will have to pay extra taxes a fiscal deficit can have a contractionary effect in these situations

group lending sequential financing lender monitoring and joint liability abstract we develop a simple model of group lending based on peer monitoring and moral hazard we find that in the absence of sequential financing or lender monitoring group lending schemes may involve under monitoring with the borrowers investing in undesirable projects moreover under certain parameter configurations group lending schemes involving either sequential financing or a combination of lender monitoring and joint liability are feasible in fact group lending schemes with sequential financing may succeed even in the absence of joint liability though the repayment rate will be lower in the absence of joint liability however group lending with lender monitoring is unlikely to be feasible

recent advances in lending to the poor with asymmetric information abstract microfinance institutions have successfully extended unsecured small loans to poor and opaque borrowers at the bottom of the economic pyramid this success is largely due to innovative financial contracts that impose joint liability and create dynamic incentives to mitigate the effects of asymmetric information given recent advances in microfinance contracts there is a need to map the theoretical developments this article aims to accomplish that by performing a critical literature survey of microlending contracts focussing on joint liability and dynamic incentives bringing out some of the deficiencies of contract theoretic propositions that cannot effectively account for the social mission of microfinance

sovereign default risk and state dependent twin deficits abstract this paper analyzes the impact of the government debt to gdp ratio on the correlation of the fiscal balance and the current account above a government debt to gdp ratio of 90 percent the correlation of the two balances decreases by 0 16 in a sample of 12 euro area countries and by 0 17 for greece ireland portugal and spain this paper develops a small open economy model with defaultable government debt and riskless international capital markets to explain the empirical evidence of a state dependent change in the correlation in the model high public debt to gdp ratios raise sovereign risk premia as the default probability increases leading to higher uncertainty about future taxes in this case precautionary savings of households increase and partially compensate current account deficits that result from fiscal deficits the increase in households saving reduces the correlation of the two balances by the same magnitude as documented in the data the model calibrated to greece matches further business cycle moments and the empirical default frequency

variation in the fiscal multiplier with the method of financing evidence across industrial countries government spending has often varied with the business cycle to stimulate the economy and to revive economic conditions however the state of public finances has often necessitated higher borrowing to finance widening fiscal deficits indeed recent austerity packages around the globe have crystalized the importance of fiscal consolidation against the backdrop of rising public debt to shed light on recent debates regarding fiscal multipliers the article estimates variation in these multipliers with the method of financing using annual data for a sample of industrial countries there is a large variation in the effects of expansionary and contractinary government spending shocks on economic variables within and across countries the significant effects of negative government spending shocks fiscal contraction appear more prevalent than those of expansionary shocks on real output growth price inflation and nominal wage inflation consistent with theory s predictions the fiscal multiplier is more lik

the impact of group based credit programs on poor households in bangladesh does the gender of participants matter this paper estimates the impact of participation by gender in the grameen bank and two other group based micro credit programs in bangladesh on labor supply schooling household expenditure and assets the empirical method uses a quasi experimental survey design to correct for the bias from unobserved individual and village level heterogeneity we find that program credit has a larger effect on the behavior of poor households in bangladesh when women are the program participants for example annual household consumption expenditure increases 18 taka for every 100 additional taka borrowed by women from these credit programs compared with 11 taka for men

fiscal policy in good times and bad in the 1980s several countries with large government debt or deficit implemented substantial and in some cases drastic deficit cuts contrary to widespread expectations in many cases private consumption boomed rather than contracted this paper shows that in times of fiscal stress shocks to government revenues and especially expenditure have very different effects on private consumption than in normal times

fiscal stimulus with spending reversals abstract the short run effects of fiscal policy depend not only on current tax and spending choices but also on expectations about future policy adjustment while general equilibrium models typically restrict medium term adjustment to taxation we highlight the importance of government spending dynamics first we provide time series evidence for the united states suggesting that an exogenous increase in government spending prompts a rise in public debt followed over time by a reduction in spending below trend second we show how expected spending reversals alter the short run impact of fiscal policy in a new keynesian model bringing it closer in line with the evidence

empowering women with micro finance evidence from bangladesh abstract this article examines the effects of men s and women s participation in micro credit programs on various indicators of women s empowerment using data from a special survey carried out in rural bangladesh these credit programs are well suited to studying how gender specific resources alter intrahousehold allocations because they induce differential participation by gender through the requirement that only one adult member per household can participate in any micro credit program empowerment is formalized as an unobserved latent variable reflecting common components of qualitative responses to a large set of questions pertaining to women s autonomy and decision making power the empirical methods are attentive to various sources of endogeneity and the results are consistent with the view that women s participation in micro credit programs helps to increase women s empowerment the effects of male credit on women s empowerment were generally negative

cross country evidence on determinants of fiscal policy effectiveness the role of trade and capital flows this article studies the determinants of size differentials between fiscal multipliers in countries around the world both advanced and developing economies we introduce variables not considered b

the product space revisited china s trade profile the concept of product space has encountered broad interest within the development community as an analytical tool against which to assess countries potential to diversify their production and export structures it has received far less attention in the economics literature and its assumptions and building blocks have not been put under scrutiny this paper assesses whether exclusive reliance on export data in product space analysis may limit its value as a tool assessing country capabilities reliance on net trade flows to account for horizontal intra industry trade and on unit values to capture within product differentiation changes the features of the product space based on a highly detailed data set of both trade value and volume and spanning over 144 countries the amended product space put forth in this paper shows that china has indeed expanded its trade profile to now occupy also product areas that are typically associated with higher income countries however china s remarkable success in expanding horizontally within the product space is strongly qualified by the introduction of the vertical dimension which shows the country to be occupying mostly the low unit value segment of product categories more akin to the typical trade profile of a developing country

inflationary consequences of anticipated macroeconomic policies budget deficits implying an unbounded present value of government debt are infeasible and hence induce expectations of a future policy change we study how expectations of a policy switch whose timing or mix between expenditure cuts tax increases or increases in money growth rates may be uncertain affect economic dynamics before the switch takes place we are especially concerned with the correlation between changes in the deficit and inflation of particular interest is our finding that timing uncertainty may induce fluctuations in the rate of inflation that seem to be unrelated to the budget deficit at a time when the budget deficit is responsible for inflation

fiscal adjustments and economic performing a comparative study the empirical relationship among fiscal contractions permanent improvement in public finances and short run economic performance is examined using a sample of 14 european countries over the last three decades the actual experience of policy making has taught that only the adjustments that relied heavily on primary expenditure cuts and were implemented over a relatively long time span were able to achieve a long lasting reduction of public liabilities indeed during these consolidations tax increase amounted to a small fraction of the total adjustment furthermore though they unfolded over a longer period with respect to the unsuccessful ones the overall budget cut was not larger as regards the macroeconomic impact successful episodes tended to be associated with improved economic performance during the adjustment period and in the following two years the economies experienced strong consumption and investment growth reduced unemployment better international competitiveness and falling interest

nonlinearities and the sustainability of the government s intertemporal budget constraint i introduction fiscal policy sustainability is an important issue for european union eu countries which are subject to some forms of monitoring of their public finances the european stability and growth pact esgp constrains the fiscal policy of member states by limiting their autonomy in creating excessive deficits 1 this because fiscal disequilibria in one state create negative externalities for the other member countries and in the case of european monetary union emu countries can endanger the overall credibility of the euro currency on the other hand given the common monetary policy the correction of idiosyncratic shocks is assigned to the fiscal instrument alone imposing further pressure on the fiscal policy of member countries while the issue of sustainability of the public finances of the eu emu countries has received an increasing attention less attention has been paid to the issue of how the sustainability is achieved that is how budgetary authorities adjust fiscal policies to achieve maintain a sustainable path of public debt focusing on this adjustment by applying linear and nonlinear error correction models is the main purpose of this paper our empirical analysis is based on italy which provides an interesting case as it joined the emu in 1999 in spite of a stock of public debt of around 113 of nominal gdp against the 60 level required by the maastricht treaty and whose public accounts are often under scrutiny for struggling to comply with the esgp 2 as well as for subsequent downgradings of its sovereign debt by the main credit rating agencies 3 in this paper we address three main relevant policy questions first are the italian public finances sustainable second is the process of fiscal adjustment equally shared by changes in revenues and changes in government spending third does fiscal adjustment vary with the sign and magnitude of disequilibria and or with the state of the economy these are important questions for policy making purposes although our methodology is only applied to italy we feel our work should be of definite interest to other european countries and beyond bearing in mind that italy enjoys membership of the g7 economies and accounts for around 17 of eurozone s gdp a better understanding of how its public finances operate in practice is extremely important for monitoring the fiscal health of eurozone countries and minimizing at an early stage possible threats to eurozone s stability as well as limiting any spill over effects to the rest of the world further loans from the european financial stability facility 4 efsf can only meet the approval of policymakers if they feel confident they have a deep understanding of how individual member states pursue their own fiscal policies toward sustainability verifiability and credibility of sustainable fiscal policies would also condition the availability of the european stability mechanism consisting in a permanent bail out fund for eurozone member states bofinger et al 2010 that is expected to become operational from 2013 at the expiry of the efsf at the same time proposals for independent monitoring of public finances of member states as well as stricter sanctions such as the temporary suspension of voting rights for eurozone members that break the region s rules on public finances are put forward by the european central bank trichet 2010 all these recent policy developments confirm the importance of our research in providing a comprehensive framework for empirically testing the sustainability of fiscal policy our proposed approach provides a number of interesting findings the italian government s intertemporal budget constraint ibc is formally respected in spite of the high levels of public debt nevertheless the burden of correcting budgetary disequilibria is entirely carried out via changes in the average tax rate rather than changes in government spending or policy mixes

uncertain fiscal consolidations the paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition are uncertain drawing on the evidence in alesina and ardagna 2010 we emphasize whether or not the fiscal consolidation is driven by tax rises or expenditure cuts we find that the composition of the fiscal consolidation its duration the monetary policy stance the level of government debt and expectations over the likelihood and composition of fiscal consolidations all matter in determining the extent to which a given consolidation is expansionary and or successful in stabilizing government debt

the political economy of fiscal consolidations in the context of recent research in political economy this paper addresses the policy problem of fiscal consolidation in terms of three types of issues i the macroeconomic effects of alternative strategies to consolidate ii the institutional setups conducive to a consolidation and iii the best strategy for implementing a consolidation in order to maximize its political feasibility one methodological feature of this survey is an emphasis on policy feasibility one methodological feature of this survey is an emphasis on policy issues in order to bridge the gap between the level of abstraction of politico economic models of fiscal policy and the issues faced by a policymaker when attempting a fiscal consolidation

nominal interest rates consumption booms and lack of credibility a quantitative examination abstract exchange rate based stabilization programs in chronic inflation countries have often been accompanied by an initial expansion of private consumption followed by a contraction this consumption cycle has been attributed to lack of credibility in the sense that the public views the reduction in the devaluation rate as temporary this paper assesses the quantitative relevance of the temporariness hypothesis by comparing the predictions of a simple model to the actual figures for seven major programs the paper concludes that nominal interest rates must fall substantially for the temporariness hypothesis to account for an important fraction of the observed consumption booms

public debt and growth heterogeneity and non linearity we study the long run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries our analysis builds on theoretical arguments and data considerations in modelling the debt growth relationship as heterogeneous across countries we investigate the debt growth nexus adopting linear and non linear specifications employing novel methods and diagnostics from the time series literature adapted for use in the panel we find some support for a negative relationship between public debt and long run growth across countries but no evidence for a similar let alone common debt threshold within countries

the intrahousehold demand for nutrients in rural south india individual estimates fixed effects and permanent income good estimates of nutrient intake responses to prices and income are very useful for the evaluation of the numerous efforts to improve nutrition in many developing countries through pricesubsidy and income generation policies we discuss three problems in standard estimates of these responses and then illustrate their implications for nutrient demand relations for a poor sample from rural south india 1 intra household nutrient allocations usually are ignored in this case nutrient intakes for females systematically have algebraically lower price elasticities than do those for males which may leave the females particularly vulnerable at times of food shortages 2 unobserved fixed effects may bias the estimates of responses to observed variables in this case not only the community fixed effects on which the previous literature has focused but also household and individual fixed effects are important failure to control for them results in substantial algebraically upward biases in many estimated price responses 3 most previous studies use current instead of permanent income which a priori may account for the low estimated income elasticities in this case however the use of permanent income does not change the conclusion that the nutrient intakes responses to income are quite small

are there asymmetries in the response of bank interest rates to monetary shocks this article examines the velocity and asymmetry of the response of bank interest rates to monetary policy shocks using an asymmetric vector error correction model it analyses the pass through of changes in money market rates to retail bank interest rates in italy in the period 1985 2002 the main results of the article are 1 the speed of adjustment of bank interest rates to monetary policy changes increased significantly after the introduction of the 1993 consolidated law on banking 2 interest rate adjustment in response to positive and negative shocks is asymmetric in the short run but not in the long run 3 banks adjust their loan deposit rate faster during periods of monetary tightening easing 4 this asymmetry almost vanished since the 1990s

trigger points and budget cuts explaining the effects of fiscal austerity we propose and solve an optimizing model which explains counterintuitive effects of fiscal policy in terms of expectations if government spending follows an upward trending stochastic process which the public believes may fall sharply when it reaches specific trigger points then optimizing consumption behavior and simple budget constraint arithmetic imply a nonlinear relationship between private consumption and government spending this theoretical relation is consistent with the experience of several countries jel e62 e21 textbook aggregate demand models suggest simple relationships between the government budget and economic activity a cut in the government deficit for example depressing consumption and output though such models heavily influence the design of stabilization policies their micro foundations are unclear and their sharp predictions are not always consistent with reality in many countries large cuts in government spending carried out as part of stabilization programs have led to expansions rather than contractions in economic activity the absence of simple relationships be

the benefits and costs of microfinance evidence from bangladesh abstract using the latest developments from the evaluation literature namely the technique of matching this paper shows a positive but lower than previously thought effect of microfinance on expenditure per capita supply of labour and level of school enrolment for boys and girls for instance participants spend 3 per cent more on average than non participants in control villages this paper also takes into account repayment delays to calculate the cost of credit provision it shows how a better investigation at the individual level of the benefits brought and the cost borne could help microfinance institutions to better select their customers jel classification c14 d10 g21 i38 o12 o16