food preferences and nutrition in rural bangladesh t he dietary choice of households near subsistence levels of nutrient intake is one of obvious policy importance in many countries such as bangladesh national goals are set in terms of nutritional intake and there is heavy intervention in the markets for foods however little is known about the manner in which food preferences vary with food expenditure and nutrient intake the design of efficient programs to aid nutritionally deficient households in attaining minimal levels of nutrient intake requires information on all ownand cross price elasticities for both target and non target groups the net effect of a food price subsidy on the consumption of food nutrients cannot be predicted without knowledge of the complete elasticity matrix results presented below demonstrate that substitution effects can be so strong that the subsidization of certain foods quite often reduces nutrient consumption in this study demand equations for nine foods which allow for extremely flexible consumer price response are estimated from the individual budgets of 5 750 rural bangladeshi households estimation at the household level is preferred because it more readily permits the incorporation of household composition variables into the demand analysis such as household size occupation and employment status that are typically lost in aggregation there is also a greater range and variation in expenditure levels than found in grouped data this is of particular importance in the study of nutritional well being as it is the poorest households which are of special interest moreover the household sample provides sufficient degrees of freedom to estimate a simple varying parameter model which requires the estimation of 270 parameters previous econometric analysis of income class specific dietary choice has been limited and not altogether satisfactory pinstrup anderson de londono and hoover 1976 estimated complete sets of price elasticities for different income strata using frisch s scheme in order to study the impact of changes in relative prices on nutrient consumption their results are suspect because of the assumption of want independence necessary for this methodology to be valid alderman and timmer 1980 who were also concerned with studying the relationship between food price policy and nutrient intake by income classes econometrically estimated separate price coefficients for each income group by including slope dummy variables in their demand equations for rice and cassava in indonesia the inclusion of these dummy variables revealed surprisingly large differences in compensated price response across income groups although their results support the notion that poorer households respond differently to prices than the rich the limitations of their data constrained them to consider only two foods and to specify changes in price response which are discontinuous with respect to income i the formulation and estimation of the food demand equations is discussed in section ii below section iii presents the results of the estimation and discusses the nutritional implications of movements in relative food prices and other exogenous variables section iv summarizes our findings

consumer demand and the life cycle allocation of household expenditures the purpose of this paper is to estimate the parameters of household preferences that determine the allocation of goods within the period and over the life cycle using micro data in doing so the authors are able to identify important effects of demographics labor market status and other household characteristics on the intertemporal allocation of expenditure they test the validity of the life cycle model using excess sensitivity tests and find that controlling for demographics and labor market status variables can largely explain the excess sensitivity of consumption to anticipated changes in income

the us retail demand for fish products an application of the almost ideal demand system the main objective is to address the limitations of past us fish demand research through the development of a variation of the almost ideal demand system model for disaggregate fish products at the retail level price and expenditure elasticities as well as elasticities of substitution between fish products and other protein commodities determined from this work may be used in the context of fisheries management and market development and promotion results indicate that with the exception of shellfish demand for the various fish products is relatively inelastic cross price elasticities are generally moderate while expenditure elasticities are large and positive for fresh fish and shellfish demographic effects especially geographical division season race occupation age sex household composition and price income interaction as a proxy for quality are highly significant variables

management of bureaucrats and public service delivery evidence from the nigerian civil service we study how the management practices bureaucrats operate under relate to the quantity and quality of public services delivered we do so exploiting data from the nigerian civil service for 4700 public sector projects we have hand coded independent engineering assessments of project completion rates and delivered quality we supplement this with a survey eliciting management practices for bureaucrats in the 63 civil service organizations responsible for these projects building on bloom and van reenen 2007 management practices matter a one standard deviation increase in bureaucrat s autonomy signi cantly increases project completion rates by 18 a one standard deviation increase in practices related to incentives monitoring of bureaucrats signi cantly lowers project completion rates by 14 we show the negative impacts of incentive provision monitoring arise because bureaucrats multi task and incentives are poorly targeted and because these management practices capture elements of subjective performance evaluation that leave scope for dysfunctional responses from bureaucrats to support a causal interpretation of our ndings we document the determinants of management practices and examine channels through which organizations might endogenously adjust management practices our results provide novel insights into how changes in how bureaucrats are managed can have potentially large impacts on public service delivery in a developing country context jel classi cation j33 j38 o20

dynamic almost ideal demand systems an empirical analysis of alcohol expenditure in ireland this paper presents a dynamic form of the almost ideal demand system aids three versions of the static aids model are employed to determine the preferred long run equilibrium model and represents the short run dynamics by an error correction mechanism this estimation procedure is then applied to alcohol expenditure in ireland the estimated point elasticities are consistent with previous studies and a priori expectations beer and spirits are found to be price inelastic in both the short and long run while wine is price inelastic in the short run and price elastic in the long run

estimating consumption from expenditure data abstract most studies of distributional issues have focused on the distribution of income but the income information usually available suffers from well known deficiencies this paper explores an alternative approach to distributional analysis based instead on expenditure data in many countries including the united kingdom available household budget data provides information on expenditures only over a short period the problems that consequently arise in interpreting data of this sort are emphasised a general specification for the stochastic structure of expenditure data is presented and a procedure for estimating participant households underlying consumption from their observed expenditures developed and discussed

substitution between goods and leisure in a developing country the paper explores the substitutability between goods female leisure and male leisure we find that goods and leisure are not separable we then adapt the almost ideal demand system aids to include leisure in the system in the same manner as commodities the model is not sensitive to variations in the assumption of total time available for each individual s work and leisure results from sri lanka indicate the marginal propensity to consume leisure is quite high especially in rural areas this finding has important implications for transfer programs designed to raise food consumption a somewhat surprising complementarity between male and female leisure was also observed a number of goods were found to be complements to both male and female leisure

establishing local government in fragile states experimental evidence from afghanistan international and domestic policy makers often promote elections to establish village government in fragile states however two additional options are available in such countries formalization of self governing village councils and formalization of community development councils cdcs we designed a survey experiment in afghanistan that compares the consequences of elections to establish village councils to each alternative we find that elections and to a lesser extent formalization of cdcs improve support for democracy while formalization of customary councils improves support for reconciliation with the taliban moreover the consequences of transplanting elections are contingent on social norms and institutions supportive of democracy

on price indices in the almost ideal demand system a number of papers have discussed the relationship between the almost ideal demand system aids and its linear approximation la aids in this paper it is shown that if the prices in the system are normalized to one the aids and la aids representations are identical at the point of normalization also at the point of normalization the expressions for price and expenditure elasticities from both systems are identical

modelling zeroes in microdata although the literature contains a number of suggestions for dealing with problems caused by a preponderance of zero expenditure observations that frequently occur in micro level budget studies in general these suggestions seem to be either empirically intractable or theoretically unappealing in this paper it is argued that a natural theoretical specification can be motivated by duality theory and that the statistical technique of compositional data analysis provides a corresponding complementary stochastic specification the resulting model is a consistent theoretical and stochastic specification for handling the possibility of a zero demand over a range of expenditures and or prices the model is then applied to the 1988 89 australian household expenditure survey

land and power theory and evidence from chile many employment relationships concede rents to workers depending on the political institutions the presence of such rents allows employers to use the threat of withdrawing them to control their workers political behavior such as their votes in the absence of secret ballot we examine the effects of the introduction of the secret ballot in chile in 1958 on voting behavior before the reforms localities with more pervasive patron client relationships tended to exhibit a much stronger support for the right wing parties traditionally associ ated with the landed oligarchy after the reform however this difference across localities completely disappeared jel d72 n46 o13 o15 o17

hierarchic demand and the engel curve for variety ahstract the usual treatment of consumer demand theory assumes a solution to the demand equations with positive quantities of all commodities this paper characterises a class called hierarchic demand systems for which only a subset of commodities are in the purchased set the hierarchic linear expenditure svstem is used to illustrate interesting properties of such systems the empirical section shows how the number of commodities purchased expands with total expenditure both in aggregate and for commodity groups the data clearly establish the empirical importance of corner solutions and of the purchase decision in demand studies

sport event attendance as a function of education evidence from the uk abstractthis article studies the role of education in the decision to attend sporting events the overall objective is to verify whether more educated individuals are more likely to go to sports events than their less educated counterparts if education socializes persons to focus on sports it would then partially offset negative alternatives such as alcohol drug abuse and unlawful behaviours creating a positive externality sport events consumption is extensive highlighting the potential economic importance of the sports education externality to establish the role of education in sport attendance this article applies a probabilistic linear regression model to data from the uk the econometric formulation associates sport event attendance in the left hand side with education in the right hand side while controlling for the socioeconomic variables that are known to affect a consumer s decision to go to a sport event gender age income employment status children marital status and geographical

selection effects and heterogeneous demand responses to the berkeley soda tax vote early evidence from household level surveys suggests that the one cent per ounce tax on sugar sweetened beverages that took effect on march 1 2015 in berkeley california has decreased consumption of sugar sweetened beverages dramatically even if these findings are robust the public policy implications of expanding the berkeley soda tax policy to a national level are complicated by selection effects inherent in the populations of both voters and consumers we find that consumption responses related to the tax interact nontrivially with consumer heterogeneity some of these responses directly counter the public policy goals of a soda tax for example high consuming households are less price sensitive and therefore less responsive to price changes following a tax further reactance among high consuming populations led to increases in soda consumption immediately following the passage of the tax partially mitigating reductions in soda consumption

analysis of food away from home expenditure patterns for u s households 1982 89 the two step decision process for food away from home fafh consumption is empirically estimated using a generalization of the heien and wessells approach household information gathered by the national panel diary group is used for the analysis marginal effects are corrected by untangling the respective variable impacts on the inverse mills ratio expenditure and participation probability elasticities are similar to previous studies income elasticities are about 0 20 suggesting that the fafh commodity is a necessary good for u s society northeastern households are less likely to consume fafh than other households but their expenditures are higher on average

a sample selection approach to censored demand systems the multivariate sample selection model is extended to a nonlinear equation system with partial selection and applied to household meat consumption in china elasticity estimates differ from those obtained from conventional maximum likelihood and tobit estimates chinese meat products are gross complements while net substitution also exists in some cases the use of micro survey data has been popular in estimating consumer demand equations important features of microdata include censored dependent variables estimation procedures for censored consumer demand systems include the primal kuhn tucker approach of wales and woodland 1983 dual virtualprice approach of lee and pitt 1986 and the tobit system amemiya 1974 estimated by generalized maximum entropy golan perloff and shen 2001 and maximum simulated likelihood dong gould and kaiser 2004 yen lin and smallwood 2003 procedures less efficient alternatives include the quasi maximum likelihood estimator yen lin and smallwood 2003 the generalized method of moments estimator meyerhoefer ranney and sahn 2005 and a number of two step estimators heien and wessells 1990 perali and chavas 2000 shonkwiler and yen 1999 yen 2005 recently proposed a maximum likelihood ml procedure for the multivariate sample selection model mssm an extension of the bivariate sample selection model heckman 1979 which had motivated the procedures of heien and wessells 1990 and shonkwiler and yen 1999 the mssm was developed in the context of linear equations and in addition is not strictly applicable for a partially selective equation system viz

food expenditures and household demographic composition in the us a demand systems approach food expenditures and subsistence quantities of poverty status and non poverty status us households are analysed within a linear expenditure system that postulates subsistence quantities to be linear combinations of demographic variables using the us bureau of labor statistics 1992 consumer expenditure survey and detailed monthly consumer price indices this article obtains expenditure elasticities own price elasticities and subsistence quantities for each income group across nine broadly aggregated food commodity groups elasticity estimates and subsistence quantity estimates differ across income groups supporting the premise that policies targeted at specific income groups should be based on the target group s elasticity estimates rather than average population elasticities parameter estimates are then used to simulate how subsistence quantities and own price elasticities can be expected to vary according to the demographic composition of the household within a specific income group

the implications of heterogeneous habit in consumer beverage purchases on soda and sin taxes abstract in this article we study the heterogeneity of habit strength in households demand for regular carbonated sweetened beverages csbs and beer in the united states a demand model that nests a smooth transition function is used to describe habit based consumption patterns revealing heterogeneous strengths of habits among households we find that more habitual consumers those with a strong preference for a particular product are not as sensitive to price or expenditure as the aggregate population this finding is further supported by simulations of the potential effects of soda and beer taxes we find the aggregate response to soda and beer taxes is smaller than when the influence of habit is assumed to be homogeneous

electoral competition under the threat of political unrest this paper examines how voting and the outcomesof majority rule elections are affected by factors beyond the control of the winning party we present a model that helps to predict how threats against the electoral process ineuence 1 platform choice by political parties 2 which party wins the election and 3 the policy outcomes enally implemented in a democracy where the majority winner sets policy dissatiseed groups including groups outside the electoral process may still be able to interfere with that policy a losing party may organize a coup voters may riot unions may go on strike investors may take their capital abroad terrorists and foreign powers may threaten disruption and loss of life foreign powers may withdraw aid or even impose a trade embargo we analyze the effect of these nonelectoral factors on electoral outcomes we consider a majority rule electoral competition between two political parties with ideal policies lying to either side of the median voter s ideal policy we allow for only a one dimensional policy space but the disruption possibility leads to a twodimensional outcome space as evident in the examples given above the actors threaten

clientelism and voting behavior evidence from a field experiment in benin the author conducted a field experiment in benin to investigate the impact of clientelism on voting behavior in collaboration with four political parties involved in the 2001 presidential elections clientelist and broad public policy platforms were designed and run in twenty randomly selected villages of an average of 756 registered voters using the survey data collected after the elections the author estimated the effect of each type of message by comparing voting behavior in the villages exposed to clientelism or public policy messages treatment groups with voting behavior in the other villages control groups the author found that clientelist messages have positive and significant effect in all regions and for all types of candidates the author also found that public policy messages have a positive and significant effect in the south but a negative and significant effect in the north in addition public policy messages seem to hurt incumbents as well as regional candidates finally the evidence indicates that female voters tend to have stronger preference for public policy platforms than male voters

electoral rules and political selection theory and evidence from a field experiment in afghanistan voters commonly face a choice between competent candidates and those with policy preferences similar to their own this article explores how electoral rules such as district magnitude mediate this trade off and affect the composition of representative bodies and the quality of policy outcomes we show formally that anticipation of bargaining over policy causes voters in elections with multiple single member districts to prefer candidates with polarized policy positions over more competent candidates results from a unique field experiment in afghanistan are consistent with these predictions specifically representatives selected by elections with a single multi member district are better educated and exhibit less extreme policy preferences

bureaucrats or politicians part ii multiple policy tasks abstract policies are typically chosen by politicians and bureaucrats this paper investigates first the normative criteria with which to allocate policy tasks to elected policymakers politicians or non elected bureaucrats politicians are preferable if there is uncertainty about social preferences and flexibility is valuable or if policy complementarities and compensation of losers is important bureaucrats are preferable if time inconsistency and short termism is an issue or if vested interests have large stakes in the policy outcome we then compare this normative benchmark with the case in which politicians choose when to delegate and show that the two generally differ

capture by threat we analyze a simple stochastic environment in which policy makers can be threatened by nasty interest groups in the absence of these groups the policy maker s desire for reelection guarantees that good policies are implemented for every realization of the shock when pressure groups can harass the policy maker good policies will be chosen for only a subset of states of nature hence honest and able leaders might implement bad policies and needed reforms could be delayed in order to make good policies more likely the public will want to increase the cost of exerting pressure for nasty groups and provide rents to those in power this last result can be used to explain the existence of political parties they play a role resembling that of the supervisor in the literature on collusion in hierarchical agency a rational public may also choose to ignore negative media reports on a politician s personal life and in general elect strong political leaders the prevalence of coercive methods of infl

replications in development economics i examine replications of empirical papers in development economics published in the top 5 and next 5 general interest journals between the years 2000 through 2015 of the 1 138 empirical papers 71 papers 6 2 percent were replicated in another published paper or working paper the majority 77 5 percent of replications involved reanalysis of the data using different econometric specifications to assess robustness the strongest predictor of whether a paper is replicated or not is the paper s google scholar citation count followed by year of publication papers based on randomized control trials rcts appear to be replicated at a higher rate 12 5 percent

on bias correction in the multivariate sample selection model heien and wessells two step estimator for the multivariate sample selection model has been used extensively during the past 15 years a modified version of it with slightly different selectivity regressors has also appeared in the empirical literature both estimators are unfounded and generally do not correct for the sample selectivity bias as intended but have continued to gain popularity in empirical applications the properties of the modified heien wessells procedure are investigated in both the bivariate and multivariate contexts and the conditions under which this estimator fails to correct for sample selectivity are examined the theoretical properties are demonstrated with a simulated random sample

consumer promotion and purchase timing the case of cheese the dynamics of cheese purchases is analysed by estimating a series of econometric models of duration based on a 170 week household panel besides purchase quantity and price data information with respect to coupon use and household demographic characteristics are used in a variety of models which build upon each other in terms of assumed distribution of interpurchase time effect of previous purchases role of demographic characteristics and effect of unobserved interpurchase time heterogeneity likelihoodratio tests clearly reject the null hypothesis that coupon use has no impact on cheese purchase timing

sample selectivity models for away from home expenditures on wine and beer the impact of household characteristics on away from home wine and beer weekly expenditures in the usa is examined results imply that higher income households without children and headed by an older white and higher educated individual spend more on wine away from home than do others on the other hand smaller midwestern and western households without children and headed by a younger and white individual spend more on beer away from home than do others

estimating a demand system with nonnegativity constraints mexican meat demand a new information based approach for estimating systems of many equations with nonnegativity constraints is presented this approach called generalized maximum entropy gme is more practical and

household demand for fats and oils two step estimation of a censored demand system a censored system of household fat and oil demand equations is estimated with a two step procedure using cross sectional data from the 1987 1988 us nationwide food consumption survey own price and total expenditure elasticities are close to unity and there is no evidence of gross substitutability compensated elasticities suggest net substitution among the products considered

cost pass through in differentiated product markets the case of u s processed cheese in this paper we estimate a mixed logit model for demand in the u s processed cheese market the estimates are used to determine pass through rates of cost changes under different behavioral regimes we find that under collusion the pass through rates for all brands fall between 21 and 31 while under nash bertrand price competition the range of pass through rates is between 73 and 103 the mixed logit model provides a more flexible framework for studying pass through rates than the logit model since the curvature of the demand functions depends upon the empirical distribution of consumer types

income distribution dynamics among italian provinces the role of bank foundations this paper investigates the convergence process and the distribution dynamics of income among italian nuts 3 provinces between 2003 and 2011 findings show the existence of multiple steady state eq

bureaucrats or politicians part i a single policy task this paper investigates the normative criteria that guide the allocation of a policy task to an elected politician versus an independent bureaucrat the bureaucrat is preferable for technical tasks for which ability is more important than effort or if there is great uncertainty about whether the policymaker has the required abilities the optimal allocation of redistributive tasks is ambiguous and depends on how the bureaucrat can be instructed but irrespective of the normative conclusion the politician prefers not to delegate redistributive policies

explaining variation in broker strategies a lab in the field experiment in senegal the implications of clientelism for democratic accountability are mixed brokers not only help coordinate votes for collective gain but also exploit their position to advance personal interest i argue that brokers use distinct strategies persuasion reciprocation and punishment to motivate voters as a function of their local institutional context competitively selected brokers whose preferences are aligned with those of followers can rely more on persuasion than instrumental inducements economically autonomous brokers are more likely to rely on sanctions than reciprocity evidence to support both the proposed typology of broker strategies and their determinants is collected in senegal a clientelistic democracy where group level heterogeneity generates natural variation in broker types a coordination game played with real brokers illustrates that participants are less likely to sacrifice personal gain when brokers are competitively selected more likely when they most fear retribution qualitative da

together or separate post conflict partition ethnic homogenization and the provision of public schooling abstract the partitioning of political jurisdictions is becoming an increasingly common component of agreements to end ethnic conflict although its impact on post conflict recovery remains unclear this paper studies the effects of the partition which ended the 1992 1995 bosnian war on the post war provision of public schooling i find that partitioned municipalities provide 58 more primary schools and 37 more teachers per capita driven mainly by convergent preferences for ethnically oriented schools however this arrangement delivers distributional consequences in partitioned municipalities ethnic majority children are more likely to complete primary schooling while for ethnic minority children it is the opposite

emergence and persistence of inefficient states we present a theory of the emergence and persistence of inefficient states based on patronage politics the society consists of rich and poor the rich are initially in power but expect to transition to democracy which will choose redistributive policies taxation requires the employment of bureaucrats by choosing an inefficient state structure the rich may be able to use patronage and capture democratic politics so reducing the amount of redistribution in democracy moreover the inefficient state creates its own constituency and tends to persist over time intuitively an inefficient state structure creates more rents for bureaucrats than would an efficient one when the poor come to power in democracy they will reform the structure of the state to make it more efficient so that higher taxes can be collected at lower cost and with lower rents for bureaucrats anticipating this when the society starts out with an inefficient organization of the state bureaucrats support the rich who set lower taxes but also provide rents to bureaucrats we obtain that the rich bureaucrats coalition may also expand the size of bureaucracy excessively so as to generate enough political support the model shows that an equilibrium with an inefficient state is more likely to arise when there is greater income inequality when bureaucratic rents take intermediate values and when individuals are sufficiently forward looking jel p16 h11 h26 h41

determinants of household expenditures for services data from the bureau of labor statistics consumer expenditure surveys were used to investigate factors influencing household expenditures for services in the united states there were significant differences between families with full time and part time working wives in expenditures on child care food away from home and total services household production variables had a significant impact on service expenditures in most instances while the effects of other variables such as family life cycle education race and geographic location varied by service category and employment status of wife

the quantity and variety of households meat purchases a censored demand system approach this study investigates the demand for 10 disaggregated meat products by u s households a censored demand system which imposes budget constraints in both observed and latent shares is estimated along with a detailed explanation of the estimation procedure additional details about the methodology not provided in previous studies should help researchers to empirically apply the model an innovation of the study is to introduce the censored demand system model for studying the variety of a household s food purchases most households buy between seven and eight different products and hardly change the variety of their purchases with changes in meat expenditure

a microeconometric analysis of consumer taste determination and taste change for beef a new method for modeling determination of consumer taste and a test of the taste change hypothesis is presented taste varies across households because of differences in household characteristics the method has a multiple indicator and multiple cause model interpretation with taste as an unobserved variable taste indicators are residuals of regular household demand functions the factors unexplained by prices and household expenditures taste cause variables are household characteristics and other variables the proposed model is applied to u s beef demand using household data results show that structural taste changes unexplained by changes in demographic composition decreased 8 from 1977 to 1987

zero expenditures and the estimation of engel curves over the brief interview periods typical of budget surveys such as the u k family expenditure survey households recorded expenditures are liable to be misleading indicators of their underlying consumption most starkly a household may not be observed to purchase commodities that it nevertheless consumes this paper considers the implications of such measurement errors for the estimation of demand systems and derives a consistent estimator for the special case of linear engel curves

consolidation of new democracy mass attitudes and clientelism adi brender allan drazendecember 2008when democracy is new it is often fragile or unconsolidated meaning that importantpolitical groups lack full commitment to the democratic process so that its survival is notassured what economic policies can a government use to try to prevent a reversion toautocracy one answer to this question begins with the argument that the threat to democracycomes from anti democratic elites the army groups such as the wealthy who bene ttedmost under the old regime the oligarchs who are seen as basically anti democratic andwho have the power to overthrow the new democratic regime the masses are seen asunambiguously pro democratic under this view policy to consolidate democracy shouldfocus on placating the anti democratic elites or colloquially but not inaccurately to buythem o this approach has received a superb treatment in daron acemoglu and jamesa robinson 2005 targeted economic policy to consolidate democracy can be viewed more generally sur vival of democracy and policy to enhance that can be thought of in terms of two fun damental questions the rst is how does the support of di erent actors a ect theprobability that democracy survives the second is then how do these important actorschoose whether or not to support the continuation of democracy or its overthrow thedesign of policy to address democratic fragility depends on the answers to these two basicquestions the policy prescription in the previous paragraph for example follows from theanswers it is the elites alone who are determinate and their support depends on givingthem enough that they are content not to overthrow democracy our research on the fragility of new democracies focusses on di erent but complemen tary issues while we agree that anti democratic elites pose a serious threat to fragile1

demand systems estimation with microdata a censored regression approach demand systems estimation increasingly makes use of household level microdata mainly to measure the effects of demographic variables data based on these household expenditure surveys present a major estimation problem for any given household many of the goods have zero consumption implying a censored dependent variable techniques which do not take this censored dependent variable into account will yield biased results we utilize a censored regression approach that is computationally simple consistent and asymptotically efficient the results are then presented and compared with those obtained using an uncensored technique

a latent variable model of consumer taste determination and taste change for complex carbohydrates despite evidence that aggregate consumption of complex carbohydrates has risen over the last decade food consumption surveys suggest that fewer households are consuming less bread pasta rice potatoes and corn this paper estimates systems of complex carbohydrae demand using cross sectional data from 1977 78 and 1987 88 in order to explain this paradox changes in demand that are not explained by changes in prices or income are explained by variations in taste because tastes cannot be directly observed the paper uses a multiple indicator and multiple cause mimic model to construct a suitable proxy variable in the mimic approach the indicators are residuals from a household demand function that includes prices and incomes as explanatory variables while household and demograhic proxies are cause variables the objectives in applying the mimic model are to determine the effect of consumer tastes on complex carbohydrate demand and comparing cross sectional survey data from two different periods

disaggregated household meat demand with censored data previous research on meat demand has generally used highly aggregated data across time products and consumers however meat products across species are likely stronger substitutes than some products from the same species further demand for specific meat products would be expected to respond differently to market information about food safety or other events this study uses monthly consumer panel data collected between 1992 and 2000 to estimate a disaggregated meat product demand system the use of the expectations maximization algorithm is introduced to estimate a demand system that adjusts for the econometric problem of censored data resulting from purchased shares of some products by individuals often being equal to zero results indicate that certain individual meat products have noticeably different own price elasticities than existing aggregate meat product estimates of their respective species some individual meat products have stronger substitutes across species than within species e g be

tax mix corners and other kinks abstractthis paper models the local tax mix determination process in the presence of statewide fiscal limitations the decentralized government finance archetype and shows how excess sensitivity of local public spending to grants the conventionally and somewhat misleadingly termed flypaper effect arises in the constrained tax mix irrespective of whether lower or upper limits bind and how it cannot in general be taken as a symptom of local government overspending an empirical application to italian province panel data provides consistent evidence of the role of corner solutions produced by two sided tax limits in explaining the sensitivity of local public expenditures to grants

a demand systems analysis of food commodities by u s households segmented by income using the 1987 88 nationwide food consumption survey twelve food commodity groups were analyzed according to household poverty status parameter estimates were used to obtain subsistence expenditures own price elasticities expenditure elasticities and income elasticities own price elasticities were similar between the income groups for most commodities however income elasticities were consistently higher for the lower income group the use of average estimates of price and income elasticities for the population as a whole for the projection of individual commodity demands is not likely to be successful if notable changes are evident in income distribution

household energy demand in kenya an application of the linear approximate almost ideal demand system la aids abstract this paper estimates price and fuel expenditure elasticities of demand by applying the linear approximate almost ideal demand system la aids to 3665 households sampled across kenya in 2009 the results indicate that motor spirit premium msp automotive gas oil ago and lubricants are price elastic while fuel wood kerosene charcoal liquefied petroleum gas lpg and electricity are price inelastic kerosene is income elastic while fuel wood charcoal lpg electricity msp and ago are income inelastic the results also reveal fuel stack behaviour that is multiple fuel use among the households main policy implications of the results include increasing the penetration of alternative fuels as well as provision of more fiscal incentives to increase usage of cleaner fuels this not withstanding however the household income should be increased beyond a certain point for the household to completely shift and use a new fuel

measurement and testing of inequality from time series of deciles with an application to u s wages this article uses unobserved components time series models to capture the underlying trends in the quarterly deciles of u s hourly wages tests of stability and divergence are developed as a means

the role of local officials in new democracies evidence from indonesia this paper shows that the body of appointed officials that a new democracy inherits from the previous regime is a key determinant of the extent of electoral fraud and clientelistic spending in new democracies i develop a model that predicts that appointed officials have stronger incentives to influence voters during national level elections because of their career concerns i test the implications of the model using data from indonesia s transition to democracy both the pattern of alignment of electoral results between village and district levels and the pattern of subsequent turnover of appointed village heads corroborate the predictions of the model

demographic variables in demand analysis in this paper the authors discuss five procedures for incorporating demographic variables into theoretically plausible demand systems translating scaling and the gorman reverse gorman and implicit prais houthakker procedures these five procedures are used to incorporate a single demographic variable the number of children in a household into the generalized ces demand system using household budget data for the united kingdom for the period 1966 1972 excerpt

do recessions permanently change output abstract this paper examines whether negative innovations to gnp are more or less persistent than positive innovations we find that once we allow for the impulse response of gnp to be asymmetric negative innovations to gnp are observed to be much less persistent than positive ones in particular the effect of a recession on the forecast of output is found to be negligible after only eight to twelve quarters while the effect of a positive shock is estimated to be persistent and amplified over time our results may therefore help reconcile two antagonistic views about the nature of business cycle fluctuations

statistical models for zero expenditures in household budgets household budget surveys are an important source of data on consumer s expenditure not just for individual consumers but also for estimating national aggregates however it is a widespread finding that for certain commodities most notably tobacco and alcohol the estimate from the household survey falls short of the known consumption total calculated with some confidence from data on production imports exports and excise duties for example in the british family expenditure survey with which we shall largely be concerned total tobacco expenditure was underestimated in 1976 by 21 percent see kemsley redpath and holmes 1980 p 51 much of this understatement together with that on alcohol is thought to occur because of the design of the survey which excludes many persons amongst whom consumption of such items is thought to be atypically high e g prisoners hoteliers and their residents merchant seamen even so the possibility remains that some of the understatement is due to various types of misreporting by households included in the survey in this paper we consider a model in which the standard tobit specification tobin 1958 is supplemented by the operation of a simple binary censor the tobit model is essentially a linear regression model in which non positive observations of the dependent variable are replaced by zero we take this specification as our starting point but add a second censoring process that randomly replaces a fraction of the observations generated by the tobit model bv zeroes the combined model can serve as a representation of several types of

poverty alleviation in mozambique a multi market analysis of the role of food aid abstract the use of food aid in poverty alleviation programs has been hampered by two problems the inability to target to households in need and the disincentive effects on agriculture in this paper we present econometric estimates of in almost ideal demand system aids for households in maputo mozambique and develop a multi market model to show that in maputo imported yellow maize is not only self targeting but that owing to a combination of the low cross price elasticity with locally produced staples particularly white maize and cross border trade in food products the disincentive effects on domestic agriculture have been negligible

deriving conditional and unconditional marginal effects in log earnings equations estimated by heckman s procedure although the heckman approach has often been used in empirical analysis the marginal effects necessary to interpret the effect of the regressors on the dependent variable appeared to be overlooked using the heckman approach general expressions are derived for calculating the conditional and unconditional marginal effects based on a sample of brazilian women the conditional and unconditional return to education are calculated for the logarithm of earnings equation estimated by heckman s procedure comparing them to the marginal effect of education obtained without correcting for selectivity bias the same analysis is carried out for a discrete variable black

impacts of world prices transmission to domestic rice markets in rural iran abstract this paper attempts to assess the degree to which iranian rural households have responded to the change in price of imported rice due to exchange rate unification and to examine the extent to which the policy has affected the economic welfare of various household income groups particularly the poor utilizing samples of 2472 households selected from national expenditure survey data of 2002 and 2003 armington and pass through elasticities were calculated as two measures of substitutability and are discussed separately for each household group in these areas the findings of this study indicate that domestic rice prices are associated differently with imported rice prices among the households however a price increase in imported rice that is mainly consumed by the poor worsens their position much more severely than for the rich people who mainly prefer domestic rice the findings contribute to the understanding of how price changes resulting from trade liberalization may affect various groups of households and the ways they respond to such changes in prices

improving the efficiency targeting of malawi s farm input subsidy programme big pain small gain abstract the farm input subsidy programme fisp in malawi was introduced in the 2005 2006 season against a background of bad weather affecting production and prolonged food shortages vouchers are distributed empowering eligible farmers to exchange them for fixed quantities of inputs at subsidized prices since its inception there has been a debate at national level about whether the fisp s potential has been fully exploited with policy makers exploring options to improve the programme proposals include targeting efficient and productive farmers to maximize returns in this paper we evaluate the effectiveness of these proposed changes to the existing fisp design by utilizing two waves of the lsms isa survey merged with climatic data we estimate how the national demand for agricultural inputs varies according to a variation in the targeting criteria by means of a two stage demand system then we identify more efficient farmers by means of a stochastic frontier approach we observe a mismatch between voucher recipients and efficiency with approximately 60 of vouchers being allocated to the three bottom quintiles of efficiency this mismatch is observed also at the spatial level with more vouchers going to districts characterized by less efficient production while concerns on the distributional impacts of the new criteria are discussed together with some suggestions for spatially diversifying the structuring of the policy and incentivizing crop diversification our results highlight a high substitutability of commercial with subsidized inputs by new eligible farmers consequently simulating the targeting policy variation we obtain an outcome that would lead only to a limited increases in predicted food expenditure ranging from 0 27 to 0 8 and maize production from 0 2 to 1 3 scope for analysing different adjustments in the functioning of fisp are thus proposed to policy makers

price and income elasticities of demand for passenger transport fuels in spain implications for public policies abstract the significant increase in passenger transport activity cars experienced by spain and its associated increase in energy consumption have several associated negative aspects including a greater dependence on foreign energy sources and higher ghg emissions therefore reducing the level of transport activity would bring important socioeconomic and environmental benefits the aim of this paper which focuses on energy consumption in the passenger transport is fourfold 1 to provide a diagnostic of energy consumption in the spanish passenger transport system and the related problems 2 to develop a model to calculate price and income elasticities of demand for transport fuel 3 to apply this model to the spanish passenger transport sector 4 to infer policy recommendations derived from the results of the diagnostic and the model it is claimed that in view of those low price elasticities and high income elasticities and if a reduction in the scale of transport activity is deemed socially desirable a combination of instruments is necessary fuel taxes play an important role within this combination apart from their long term effects the low price elasticity of demand for transport fuel would allow the collection of a significant amount of revenues which could eventually be earmarked to encourage reductions in private transport demand and modal shifts with other instruments

the political economy of clientelism in this paper we argue that the political commitment problem provides an explanation for why much income redistribution takes an inefficient form particularly employment in the public sector a job is a credible way of redistributing when it provides rents such as in situations with moral hazard and employment is optimal ex post moreover a job is selective and reversible and thus ties the continuation utility of a voter to the political success of a particular politician we show that the need to make offers of employment incentive compatible leads to inefficiencies in the supply of public goods we also show that such inefficient redistribution becomes relatively attractive in situations with high inequality and low productivity inefficiency is increased when the stakes from politics are high when inequality is high and when money matters less than ideology in politics

the dynamics of individuals fat consumption consumers are increasingly aware of the link between their lifestyle choices and the risk of noncommunicable diseases a dynamic approach incorporating this linkage in food demand is developed where consumers maximize utility over time by choosing fat intake to control their cumulative fat level the resulting dynamic indirect utility function and household data on meat fish and dairy consumption are used to estimate a censored demand system results show that consumers consciously adjust but not instantaneously their cumulative fat level highly educated households have a faster rate of adjustment of cumulative fat when cumulative fat level increases consumers shift to dairy or white meat from red meat products

agricultural productivity and convergence europe and the united states this article applies the window malmquist index wmi approach to measure changes in agricultural total factor productivity tfp for the united states and a sample of nine european countries for the period 1973 to 1993 the dataset used in this article is obtained from ball et al 2001 the wmi is constructed by combining data envelopment analysis window analysis with the malmquist index approach furthermore the kruskal and wallis rank test is used for testing frontier shifts among observed periods the article also explores the question of convergence in tfp across the countries under consideration by testing for and convergence as well as for stochastic or long run convergence the results show wide variation in the rate of tfp growth across countries with an average trend growth rate of 1 62 the results indicate the presence of convergence but the absence of convergence for the full period under consideration but the presence of both and convergence for the sub period 1983 to

the rise of obesity in transition theory and empirical evidence from russia this paper integrates theoretical and empirical models to study the rise of human obesity in russia during the transition from a planned to a market economy to test our hypotheses we use recent individual level data from the russian longitudinal monitoring survey for 1995 and 2004 capturing representative periods of early and late transition estimation results strongly support our model of production and supply of bmi body mass index and weight the analysis indicates strong links between dietary patterns individual characteristics environmental factors and obesity in russia understanding these relationships is important for designing effective public policies aiming to improve overall nutritional wellbeing and reduce obesity and mortality of the russian population interventions which enhance education and awareness of healthy lifestyles and healthy diet could play a vital role in preventing obesity in russia

how do budget deficits and economic growth affect reelection prospects evidence from a large panel of countries conventional wisdom is that good economic conditions and expansionary fiscal policy help incumbents get reelected but this has not been tested in a large cross section of countries we test these arguments in a sample of 74 countries over the period 1960 2003 we find no evidence that deficits help reelection in any group of countries developed and less developed new and old democracies countries with different government or electoral systems and countries with different levels of democracy in developed countries and in old democracies election year deficits actually reduce the probability that a leader is reelected with similar although smaller negative electoral effects of deficits in the earlier years of an incumbent s term in office higher growth rates of real gdp per capita raise the probability of reelection only in the less developed countries and in new democracies but voters are affected by growth over the leader s term in office rather than in the election year itself and apparently only by growth not attributed to global growth low inflation is rewarded by voters only in the developed countries the effects we find are not only statistically significant but also quite substantial quantitatively we also suggest how the absence of a positive electoral effect of deficits can be consistent with the political deficit cycle found in new democracies

volunteerism after the tsunami the effects of democratization using three waves of survey data from fishing villages in aceh indonesia for 2005 09 the paper examines the determinants of local volunteer labor after the tsunami volunteer labor is the village public sector labor force for maintenance clean up and renovation of public capital while also examining the effects on volunteerism of village destruction and trauma pre existing social capital diversity and aid delivery the papers focuses on the effects of democratization the tsunami and massive international aid effort prompted the settlement of the insurgency movement in aceh which had led to suspension of local elections over the prior twenty or more years until 2006 village heads who call volunteer days were effectively selected by village elites who may highly value the public facilities maintained by volunteer labor with elections volunteer days fall under the new regime with democratically elected village heads calling fewer volunteer days which may appeal more to the typical villager identification comes from pseudo randomized differential timing of elections

fast food consumption and the ban on advertising targeting children the quebec experience abstract amid growing concerns about childhood obesity and the associated health risks several countries are considering banning fast food advertising targeting children in this article the authors study the effect of such a ban in the canadian province of quebec using household expenditure survey data from 1984 to 1992 authors examine whether expenditure on fast food is lower in those groups affected by the ban than in those that are not the authors use a triple difference indifference methodology by appropriately defining treatment and control groups and find that the ban s effectiveness is not a result of the decrease in fast food expenditures per week but rather of the decrease in purchase propensity by 13 per week overall the authors estimate that the ban reduced fast food consumption by us 88 million per year the study suggests that advertising bans can be effective provided media markets do not overlap

distributional effects of maize price increases in malawi abstractin the wake of highly volatile world prices of staple commodities we examine the impacts of increases in maize prices on various categories of households in malawi using household level data changes in household income are calculated taking into account the net maize production status of the household and food price elasticities estimated from a censored demand system while maize price increases have unequivocal deleterious effects on the incomes of urban households rural households experience differential impacts net producing households in rural areas benefit from price increases with households above the poverty line obtaining proportionally higher incomes

food demand in mexico an application of the amemiya tobin approach to the estimation of a censored food system the modeling of micro level food demand patterns requires not only allowing for household heterogeneity but also addressing the problem of censoring in this article we present a variation of the amemiya tobin framework for estimating a censored demand system that allows for household heterogeneity the unique aspect of our approach is the use of a procedure that ensures the adding up of both latent and observed expenditure shares and also imposes expenditure share nonnegativity this system is applied to an analysis of food demand based on a random sample of urban mexican households

ethnic segregation and public goods evidence from indonesia this article contributes to the study of ethnic diversity and public goods provision by assessing the role of the spatial distribution of ethnic groups through a new theory that we call spatial interdependence we argue that the segregation of ethnic groups can reduce or even neutralize the diversity penalty in public goods provision that results from ethnic fractionalization this is because local segregation allows communities to use disparities in the level of public goods compared with other communities as leverage when advocating for more public goods for themselves thereby ratcheting up the level of public goods across communities we test this prediction on highly disaggregated data from indonesia and find strong support that controlling for ethnic fractionalization segregated communities have higher levels of public goods this has an important and underexplored implication decentralization disadvantages integrated communities vis a vis their more segregated counterparts

convergence in italian regional per capita gdp this paper addresses the issue of convergence of per capita gdp of the 20 italian regions the paper first focuses on the notion of convergence and proposes a new hierarchical clustering algorithm grouping regions according to the presence of a monotonically decreasing trend in entropy then alternative definitions of long run convergence are given based on the notion of cointegration and common trends and the evidence arising from application of stationarity tests to the time series of regional contrasts is examined the conclusion is that both kind of convergence can be used to characterize the dynamics of regional per capita gdp

the demand for dairy products structure prediction and decomposition this article presents an analysis of the demand for dairy products first the structure of dairy product demand is estimated using the household food consumption survey data under the assumption of a two stage budgeting procedure a complete demand system for food incorporating demographic effects is estimated next using the demand relations estimated from cross section data prediction interval tests utilizing time series data are performed for milk and butter last factors affecting consumption are classified into economic and demographic effects and a decomposition of the causes of changes in demand over time is performed

calculating marginal effects in models for zero expenditures in household budgets using a heckman type correction using the heckamn approach either in single equation or multi equation settings general expressions are derived for calculating marginal effects and elasticities in the conventional calculation of marginal effects terms related to the change in the inverse of mills ratio are omitted using data from the 19877 88 nationwide food consumption survey we calculate income and household size elasticities for 12 food commodities we compare the magnitudes and signs of the elasticities using the conventional expressions of marginal effects and our derived expressions bottomline sizeable differences especially in single equation applications can occur in calculating marginal effects if one fails to account for changes in the inverse of the mills ratio

the monopoly of violence evidence from colombia many states in latin america africa and asia lack the monopoly of violence even though this was identified by max weber as the foundation of the state and thus the capacity to govern effectively in this paper we develop a new perspective on the establishment of the monopoly of violence we build a model to explain the incentive of central states to eliminate nonstate armed actors paramilitaries in a democracy the model is premised on the idea that paramilitaries may choose to and can influence elections since paramilitaries have preferences over policies this reduces the incentives of the politicians they favor to eliminate them we then investigate these ideas using data from colombia between 1991 and 2006 we first present regression and case study evidence supporting our postulate that paramilitary groups can have significant effects on elections for the legislature and the executive next we show that the evidence is also broadly consistent with the implication of the model that paramilitaries tend to persist to the extent that they deliver votes to candidates for the executive whose preferences are close to theirs and that this effect is larger in areas where the presidential candidate would have otherwise not done as well finally we use roll call votes to illustrate a possible quid pro quo between the executive and paramilitaries in colombia language en

demographic effects in demand analysis estimation of the quadratic expenditure system using microdata the purpose of this paper is to estimate a complete theoretically plausible system of demand equations on microdata using the rich detail of these data to investigate the impact of demographic variables on demand behavior the system which we estimate is the quadratic expenditure system qes introduced by howe pollak and wales we evaluate four methods for incorporating demographic variables into the demand system three of these procedures imply parameter restrictions while the fourth does not tests on the restrictions imply that for our data unrestricted estimation yields significantly greater explanatory power

brand inertia in u s household cheese consumption to analyze u s consumers brand choices for cheese purchases we derive a set of discrete choice models from dynamic utility maximization acnielsen homescan survey data on u s households is used to estimate a dynamic probit model for each of the top brands for cheddar shredded and sliced cheese in four u s regions we find that households have strong brand inertia a result robust across alternative specifications predicted probabilities confirm greater inertia in the top brands and consumers are more likely to switch into them brand inertia is relatively larger in cheddar and sliced cheese especially in the central and southeast regions copyright 2008 oxford university press

prices poaching and protein alternatives an analysis of bushmeat consumption around serengeti national park tanzania abstract the consumption of meat from wild animals or bushmeat occurs throughout africa and highlights the conflict between two distinct development goals food security and biodiversity conservation growing human populations throughout the greater serengeti ecosystem rely heavily on bushmeat as a source of protein which places pressure on migratory wildlife populations this paper uses unique data from protein consumption surveys from 131 households over 34 months in a generalizable empirical framework to estimate price cross price and expenditure elasticities of protein sources and analyze the potential economic effects of policies to mitigate bushmeat hunting and consumption results suggest that 1 directly increasing the price of bushmeat through enforcement or other policies to reduce supply will have the most direct and largest effect of bushmeat consumption 2 increasing income increases bushmeat consumption as well as consumption of other meat sources 3 if surrounding fisheries experience a negative shock or collapse this will lead to a dramatic increase in bushmeat consumption overall these results strongly indicate that policies to reduce bushmeat hunting while maintaining food security must be considered in a broad and comprehensive framework

expenditure elasticities of the demand for leisure services although some research has already focused on the analysis of expenditure elasticities of leisure demand some shortcomings with regard to the content and the underlying theoretical model as well as the applied methods exist this article aims at avoiding these problems to provide consistent derivatives of leisure service expenditure elasticities therefore a regular demand system is derived from microeconomic duality theory to implement leisure specific demand factors i e demand and supply based sports and recreational opportunities as well as sports and recreational preferences while still being consistent with neoclassical demand theory the basic model is extended by applying the demographic translation framework data of the continuous household budget survey n 7724 from germany is used for the estimation of the derived demand system it is shown how sensitive the results are depending on the applied censored regression model 16 out of 18 analysed services are indicated as luxury goods b

shifting sands the changing case for monetizing project food aid in bangladesh abstract monetization involves local sale of food aid commodities and using the cash to finance other programs to explore the likely consequences of monetization this paper combines a stockpile of recent microeconomic evidence from food and cash for work projects in bangladesh together with a multimarket simulation model results suggest that a switch from food for work s ffw in kind deliveries of wheat to an identical wheat financed cash for work cfw program would unambiguously improve welfare of the poor

semiparametric estimation of consumer demand systems with micro data maximum likelihood and two step estimators of censored demand systems yield biased and inconsistent parameter estimates when the assumed joint distribution of disturbances is incorrect this paper proposes a semiparametric estimator that retains the computational advantage of the two step approach but is immune to distributional misspecification the key difference between the proposed estimator and the two step estimator is that the parameters of the binary censoring equations are estimated using a distribution free single index model we implement the proposed estimator using household level data obtained from the hainan province in china specification test lends support to our approach

further investigation of the uncertain trend in us gdp the presence of deterministic or stochastic trend in us gdp has been a continuing debate in the literature of macroeconomics ben david and papell 1995 found evidence in favour of trend stationarity using the secular sample of maddison 1991 more recently murray and nelson 2000 correctly criticized this finding arguing that the maddision data are plagued with additive outliers ao which bias inference towards stationarity hence they propose to set the secular sample aside and conduct inference using a more homogeneous but shorter time span post wwii sample in this article we re visit the maddison data by employing a test that is robust against ao s our results suggest the us gdp can be modelled as trend stationary process

politicians bureaucrats and targeted redistribution abstract the paper argues that for political reasons elected politicians are more likely to be engaged in targeted redistribution than appointed bureaucrats it uses the example of patronage jobs in the u s local governments to provide empirical support for this claim it shows that the number of public employees is higher for elected chief executives this difference is stronger in public services with bigger private public wage differential and it increases during election years it also finds that the number of public employees increases with the age of bureaucrats while there is no such relationship in the case of politicians which is consistent with younger bureaucrats having stronger career concerns