what uip tests on extreme samples reveal about the missing variable abstract in their uip regressions huisman et al 1998 extreme support for uncovered interest parity journal for international money and finance 17 211 228 focus on extreme forward premia and find much higher coefficients we show that for such results the expectation signal needs to be thicker tailed than the missing variable transaction costs may produce the right sort of bias it is i bounded i e it has no tails at all ii wide i e it may generate betas below 1 2 and iii u distributed which makes an extreme sample quite effective we derive theoretical and numerical results in the direction of what huisman et al observe we also tighten fama s moment conditions

intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market this paper examines the out of sample performance of intraday technical trading strategies selected using two methodologies a genetic program and an optimized linear forecasting model when realistic transaction costs and trading hours are taken into account we find no evidence of excess returns to the trading rules derived with either methodology thus our results are consistent with market efficiency we do however find that the trading rules discover some remarkably stable patterns in the data

the effect of r d services offshoring on skilled employment firm evidence the offshoring of high tech services has greatly increased in recent years with consequences for firms demand for skilled employment in firms this paper specifically analyses the relationship between r d offshoring and the demand for r d employment using firm level data for spanish manufacturing and services companies during the period 2004 11 estimating different specifications with panel data techniques we find that this association is statistically positive in particular for services firms a 1 percentage point increase in r d offshoring raises the demand for researchers by about 11 per cent

wage curve analyses of establishment data from western germany using the iab establishment panel which is representative for western germany the authors find that establishment level wages reacted to variations in the regional unemployment rate the elasticity of wages with respect to unemployment they estimate was about 0 1 this responsiveness of the wage to regional variation is close to estimates found by other researchers using individual rather than establishment data for other countries and contradicts the view that germany s labor market largely due to the nature of collective bargaining in that country is relatively inflexible possible explanations for this finding are that the negotiated wage is treated like a minimum wage with firms deviating from it in order to increase work effort bargaining between firms and individual workers or between firms and works councils produces wage differences or collective agreements do not restrict firms to the extent that is often assumed

outsourcing imports and labour demand this paper examines the effects of purchased services and imported intermediate materials on the labour demand for different skills in german manufacturing sectors we derive and estimate a factor demand system based on the generalised box cox cost function nesting both the normalised quadratic and the translog functional form we find that the impacts of output and capital growth are more important in explaining the demand for heterogeneous labour than substitution effects between labour and non labour inputs similarly the increasing use of both imported materials and purchased services is a consequence of output growth rather than input substitution

the speculative efficiency hypothesis the hypothesis that forward prices are the best unbiased forecast of future spot prices is often presented in the economic and financial analysis of futures markets this paper considers the hypothesis independently of its implications for rational expectations or market efficiency and in order to stress this fact the term speculative efficiency is used to characterize the state envisaged under the hypothesis if a market is subject to efficient speculation the supply of speculative funds is infinitely elastic at the forward price that is equal to the expected future spot price the expected future spot price is a market price determined as the solution to the underlying rational expectations macroeconomic model although the paper is primarily concerned with testing this hypothesis in the foreign exchange market the methodology introduced in the paper is of general application to all futures markets this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

equilibrium unemployment with outsourcing and wage solidarity under labour market imperfections abstract we evaluate the effects of outsourcing and wage solidarity on wage formation and equilibrium unemployment in a heterogeneous labour market where wages are determined by a monopoly labour union we find that outsourcing promotes the wage dispersion between the high and low skilled workers when the labour union adopts a solidaristic wage policy it will dampen this tendency further higher outsourcing will increase equilibrium unemployment among the high skilled workers whereas it will reduce it among the low skilled workers overall outsourcing will reduce economy wide equilibrium unemployment under the reasonable condition that the proportion of high skilled workers is sufficiently low

an exploration of the forward premium puzzle in currency markets a standard empirical finding is that expected changes in exchange rates and interest rate differentials across countries are negatively related implying that uncovered interest rate parity is violated in the data this article provides new empirical evidence that suggests that violations of uncovered interest rate parity and its economic implications depend on the sign of the interest rate differentially a framework related to term structure models is developed to account for the puzzling relationship between expected changes in exchange rates and interest rate differentials estimation results suggest that a particular term structure model can account for the puzzling empirical evidence article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

intra european imbalances adjustment and growth in the eurozone this paper considers the increase in the euro intra area imbalances since the late 1990s and their role in the current european debt crisis by focusing on the case study of italy and germany we argue that both macroeconomic the functioning of the euro area and microeconomic internationalization of production factors contributed to the creation of such imbalances when sovereign risk and currency risk emerged in the periphery coupled with austerity as a response to these risks both factors made the euro crisis worse the present zero sum game approach is very risky for the stability of the euro area policy coordination of some kind is needed this requires agreeing on well identified economic policy priorities taking full account of the different positions of the members in terms of growth external imbalances and competitiveness new policy priorities are thus required in the euro zone that put more emphasis on cooperative positive sum games in convergence and competitiveness

the nature of precautionary wealth abstract this paper uses the panel study of income dynamics to provide some of the first direct evidence that wealth is systematically higher for consumers with predictably greater income uncertainty however the apparent pattern of precautionary wealth is not consistent with a standard parameterization of the life cucle model in which consumers are patient enough to begin saving for retirement early in life wealth is estimated to be far less sensitive to uncertainty than implied by that model instead our results suggest that over most of their working life time consumers behave in accordance with the buffer stock models of saving described in carroll 1992 1997 or deaton 1991 in which consumers hold wealth principally to insulate consumption against near term fluctuations in income

how regimes affect asset allocation international equity returns are characterized by episodes of high volatility and unusually high correlations coinciding with bear markets this article provides models of asset returns that match these patterns and illustrates their use in asset allocation the presence of regimes with different correlations and expected returns is difficult to exploit within a framework focused on global equities nevertheless for global all equity portfolios the regime switching strategy dominated static strategies in an out of sample test in addition substantial value was added when an investor switched between domestic cash bonds and equity investments in a persistent high volatility market the model told the investor to switch primarily to cash large market timing benefits are possible because high volatility regimes tend to coincide with periods of relatively high interest rates

optimal portfolio selection with transaction costs and finite horizons we examine the optimal trading strategy for a crra investor who maximizes the expected utility of wealth on a finite date and faces transaction costs closed form solutions are obtained when this date is uncertain we then show a sequence of analytical solutions converge to the solution to the problem with a deterministic finite horizon consistent with the common life cycle investment advice the optimal trading strategy is found to be horizon dependent and largely buy and hold moreover it might be optimal for the investor in our model not to buy any stock even when the risk premium is positive further analysis of the optimal policy is also provided financial advisers typically recommend that younger investors should allocate a greater share of wealth to stocks than older investors and all investors

equity and time to sale in the real estate market evidence from the boston condominium market of the early 1990s reveals that an owner s equity position determines his experience as a seller an owner of a property with a high loan to value ratio sets a higher asking price has a higher expected time on the market and if he sells receives a higher price than an owner with proportionately less debt the down payment requirement for purchasers but not incumbent owners provides a simple explanation for this phenomenon among owner occupants the results provide supporting evidence for equity based aggregate theories of price volume movements in the housing market copyright 1997 by american economic association

time varying risk premia volatility and technical trading rule profits evidence from foreign currency futures markets abstract this paper re examines the efficiency of foreign currency futures markets by evaluating the role of time varying risk premia and volatility in explaining technical trading rule profits the results show that large parts of the technical rule profits can be explained by the time varying risk premia estimated from a general model for the conditional capm the bootstrap distributions for the profits under the null model average one third to one half of the actual profits and enclose the actual profits well within the 90 confidence intervals time varying conditional volatility explains an additional 10 of the profits

do momentum based strategies still work in foreign currency markets this paper examines the performance of momentum trading strategies in foreign exchange markets we find the well documented profitability of momentum strategies during the 1970s and the 1980s has continued throughout the 1990s our approach and findings are insensitive to the specification of the trading rule and the base currency for analysis finally we show that the performance is not due to a time varying risk premium but rather depends on the underlying autocorrelation structure of the currency returns in sum the results lend further support to prior momentum studies on equities the profitability to momentum based strategies holds for currencies as well

endogenous life cycle housing investment and portfolio allocation this paper develops a life cycle portfolio allocation model to address the effects of housing investment on the portfolio allocation of households the model employs a comprehensive housing investment structure epstein zin recursive preferences and a stock market entry cost furthermore rather than resorting to calibration we estimate the value of the relative risk aversion and elasticity of intertemporal substitution the model shows that housing investment has a strong crowding out effect on investment in risky assets throughout the life cycle we further find that the effect of the presence of housing investment on households portfolio allocation is larger than the effect of having ez recursive preferences jel classification g0 g11 g12 d10

is the forward bias economically small evidence from european rates abstract for the purpose of testing uncovered interest parity uip rates of european currencies against the mark offer a distinct advantage the admissible band of the exchange rate mechanism erm induces statistically significant mean reversion in weekly rates thus unlike for freely floating rates there is an expectation signal that has non trivial variation and is sufficiently traceable for research purposes when running the standard regression tests of the unbiased expectations hypothesis at the one week horizon we nevertheless obtain essentially zero coefficients for intra ems exchange rates and the familiar negative coefficients for extra ems rates even more puzzlingly lagged exchange rate changes remain significant when added to the regression a feature that seems hard to explain as a missing variable effect the deviation from uip is significant not just statistically but also economically trading rule tests reveal that for sufficiently large filters the average profit per trade exceeds transaction costs and that cumulative gains can be quite impressive the size of the profits and the patterns from buy versus sell decisions also allow us to reject the hypotheses of either a risk premium or peso issues about realignments as sufficient explanations

international outsourcing and factor prices with multistage production we develop a dual representation of the technology of international fragmentation for an industry using 2 factors in a continuum of stages we then derive a generalised factor price frontier which incorporates an endogenous adjustment of the margin of fragmentation using this frontier in a 2 2 general equilibrium model we investigate the role of outsourcing in the adjustment to a decline in the final output price of the multistage industry and the attendant factor price effects we also explore the implications of an improved technology of international fragmentation on the margin of fragmentation and on domestic factor prices

wage inequality and varieties of capitalism this article draws on a new data set that enables the authors to compare the distribution of income from employment across oecd countries specifically the article conducts a pooled cross sectional time series analysis of the determinants of wage inequality in sixteen countries from 1973 to 1995 the analysis shows that varieties of capitalism matter the authors find that the qualities that distinguish social market economies from liberal market economies shape the way political and institutional variables influence wage inequality of particular interest to political scientists is the finding that the wage distributive effects of government partisanship are contingent on institutional context union density emerges in the analysis as the single most important factor influencing wage inequality in both institutional contexts

portfolio choices for homeowners abstract in this paper i show that introducing frictions associated with housing into standard life cycle models can partially resolve the portfolio choice puzzle i calibrate a model in which a representative household endogenously transits from renting to mortgage financed homeownership the household can later adjust housing status either voluntarily or because of a forced move by paying transaction costs it is shown that homeownership crowds out stock market participation risky owner occupied housing substitutes for stocks while bonds provide liquidity young and middle aged households regardless of whether they are currently homeowners hold much less stock than predicted by traditional models without housing

the significance of technical trading rule profits in the foreign exchange market a bootstrap approach abstract in this paper we present new evidence on the profitability and statistical significance of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market we utilize a new data base currency futures contracts for the period 1976 1990 and we implement a new testing procedure based on bootstrap methodology our results suggest that simple technical trading rules have very often led to profits that are highly unusual splitting the entire sample period into three 5 year periods reveals that on average the profitability of some trading rules declined in the latest period although profits remained positive on average and significant in many cases jel f31 f47 g15

the effects of marital status and children on savings and portfolio choice this paper investigates the impact of demographic shocks on optimal decisions about saving life insurance and most centrally asset allocation we analyze these choices within the framework of a life cycle model that features exogenous changes in family composition heterogeneity in lifetime income and uninsurable fluctuations in earnings and medical costs our analysis indicates that marital status transitions and children can have important effects on optimal household decisions widowhood induces sharp reductions in the portfolio shares in stock and the impact is largest for women and individuals with children divorce causes men and women to reallocate their portfolios in different directions men choose much riskier allocations while women opt for safer ones children play a fundamental role in the optimal portfolio decisions men with children for example increase their shares in response to divorce by less than half as much as men without children comparing our simulation results with panel data evidence on stockholding from the psid and the hrs we conclude that changes in marital status and children matter empirically as well but not always in the ways that the model predicts

common factors and local factors implications for term structures and exchange rates this paper studies a multi factor two country term structure and exchange rate model when a diversification effect for an international bond portfolio is expected it shows that the diversification gain calls upon certain restrictions on the process of the stochastic discount factor in a factor structured economy existence of local factors is shown to be a necessary condition for the gains from investing in foreign bonds further the exchange rate risk premia are shown to be a function of the differentials of the risk premia of the factors in bond returns empirical results reveal the tendency for investors to respond sensitively to rare shocks which is shown to be a potential solution to the forward premium puzzle

the labour market effects of offshoring of small and medium sized firms micro level evidence for germany small and medium sized enterprises smes are the economic powerhouse of many oecd countries perhaps most prominently so in germany yet the labour market dynamics caused by the internationaliza

offshoring tasks and the skill wage pattern the paper investigates the relationship between offshoring wages and the occupational task profile using rich individual level panel data our main results suggest that when only considering within industry changes in offshoring we identify a moderate wage reduction due to offshoring for low skilled workers though wage effects in relation to the task profile of occupations are not estimated with sufficient precision however when allowing for cross industry effects of offshoring i e allowing for labor mobility across industries negative wage effects of offshoring are quite substantial and depend strongly on the task profile of workers occupations a higher degree of interactivity and in particular non routine content effectively shields workers against the negative wage impact of offshoring

limited stock market participation among renters and homeowners the stock market participation rate among homeowners is twice as high as among renters this paper builds a life cycle portfolio choice model with endogenous housing tenure choice a stylized form

centralization of bargaining and wage inequality a correction of wallerstein wage inequality is a subject of intense political and substantive concern and di erencesin the extent of wage inequality between the anglo american economies and those of con tinental europe animate public and scholarly discussion the wide earnings di erentialsobserved in the united states and the united kingdom are commonly justi ed as the properand necessary incentives for a mature growth oriented economy the narrower income dif ferentials encountered in continental europe are rationalized as necessary for the protectionof the less well paid and the integrity of the social fabric the upward secular trend in wageinequality in the us since the 1970s which is a stark reversal of the pattern observed duringthe preceding 40 years is also a topic attracting wide public and scholarly attention despite the importance of the subject and the amount of attention that it has received the extensive literature on the economic impact of wage bargaining institutions in advanceddemocratic societies contains only a few widely accepted ndings one of these is that morecentralized bargaining institutions strongly encourage wage equality no less an authoritativeorgan than the oecd notes for instance that there is a fairly robust relation betweencross country di erences in earnings inequality and bargaining structures oecd 1997 p 64 several well designed country speci c studies support the claim that the system ofcollective bargaining is a major determinant of variations in the extent of wage inequality hibbs and locking 1996 2000 erickson and ichino 1995 yet even the most careful andwell executed country level results may be a ected by idiosyncratic country speci c factors evidence at the cross national level is required the most careful and convincing cross national empirical documentation of the link between centralized bargaining institutionsand wage inequality appears in wallerstein 1999 published in this journal

owner occupied housing life cycle implications for the household portfolio empirical work on portfolio composition over the life cycle indicates that the portfolio share devoted to risky assets has a hump shaped profile with respect to age that is as households accumulate wealth they tend to invest an increasing fraction of their wealth in risky assets only at a very advanced age do households on average reduce the share of their portfolio held in risky assets the hump shaped age profile of risky asset holding has proven difficult to reconcile with standard models of portfolio allocation in this paper we incorporate owner occupied housing in a model of household consumption and portfolio allocation instead of assuming that the household can borrow and lend without limit at a riskless interest rate we assume that the household s portfolio allocation decision is subject to a collateral constraint the household can borrow only in the form of a mortgage and the size of the mortgage cannot exceed the house value solving for the optimal portfolios we show that the collateral constraint induces a hump shaped profile in the optimal share of stocks in the portfolio the empirical work supports our assertion that the apparent age effect on portfolio composition arises because the age of the household head acts as a proxy for the housing collateral effect new developments in housing research

services outsourcing and innovation an empirical investigation we provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of the links between international services outsourcing domestic outsourcing profits and innovation using plant level data we find a positive effect of international outsourcing of services on innovative activity at the plant level such a positive effect can also be observed for domestic outsourcing of services but the magnitude is smaller this makes intuitive sense as international outsourcing allows more scope for exploiting international factor price differentials therefore giving the establishment higher profits and more scope to restructure production activities towards innovation we also find that international outsourcing has a positive effect on profitability as predicted by theory while this is not true for domestic sourcing the results are robust to various specifications and an instrumental variables analysis

beating the foreign exchange market filter rule profits found in foreign exchange markets in the early days of the current managed float persist in later periods as shown by statistical tests developed and implemented here the test is consistent with but independent of a wide variety of asset pricing models the profits found cannot be explained by risk if risk premia are constant over time inclusion of the home foreign interest rate differential in computing profits has little effect on the comparison of filter returns to those of buy and hold in the early years of the generalized managed floating that began in march 1973 filter rule profits in excess of buy and hold were found for many countries logue sweeney and willett 18 dooley and shafer 6 cornell and dietrich 5 it was unclear however whether such profits indicated inefficiencies first it was not clear that risk was adequately handled in such tests and often risk was ignored second there was no evidence such profits would be available postsample and third there was no statistical test of the significance of these profits this paper uses the logic of risk return tradeoffs to analyze the role of risk in such tests and illustrates the logic in a discussion using the sharpe lintner capital asset pricing model capm although a breeden consumption based capm a merton intertemporal capm or an arbitrage pricing model apm could easily be used the paper develops a test of statistical significance appropriate to foreign exchange markets section i analyzing the rate of return on foreign exchange speculation less the foreign domestic interest rate differential the test explicitly assumes that risk premia are constant over the sample the excess rates of return observable in using filters in going from a risk free dollar asset to a risk free deutsche mark dm asset persist into the 1980 s section ii and this is true even when taking account of transactions costs it turns out that these results for the dm case do not depend very much on the interestrate differential but primarily on exchange rate behavior this is useful to know because it is often quite difficult to find matching interest rate data of high quality for a sample of nine other currencies using only exchange rates section iii shows that the excess returns made in the first 610 days of the float persist in the next 1 220 days into the 1980 s dooley and shafer 7 find similar persistence in experiments that do not use buy and hold and have no significance tests when filter rule profits have been found in spot exchange markets it has often been argued that the profits are due to risk this paper uses the capm to analyze rates of return both to buy and hold and to filter strategies it turns out that the claremont mckenna college and claremont graduate school arthur d warga douglas joines and thomas d willett offered helpful comments and ning ning koo provided research assistance

an examination of uncovered interest rate parity in segmented international commodity markets we examine the effect of segmented commodity markets on the relation between forward and future spot exchange rates in a dynamic economy we calculate the slope coefficient in our theoretical economy from regressing exchange rate changes on forward premia with reasonable parameter values the slope coefficient is less than unity however even for extreme parameters the slope is not less than zero as found in the data a negative slope coefficient in a nominal version of the model requires the covariance between monetary shocks and relative output shocks to be significantly negative in contrast to the covariance in the data one of the most studied relations in international finance is that between forward exchange rates and future spot rates empirical tests typically find that when one regresses changes in spot rates on forward premia the slope coefficient is less than one and often negative this result is called the forward bias anomaly and implies that the returns from investing in forward exchange contracts are predictable our objective is to examine the effect of segmentation of international commodity markets on the relation between the forward premium and the change in the spot rate segmentation of commodity markets is modeled by introducing a cost for transferring goods across countries giving rise to deviations from purchasing power parity ppp in this article we first derive the theoretical implications of the effect of segmentation on the forward bias in a dynamic general equilibrium model and then analyze a calibrated version of the model our analysis serves as a useful benchmark to study how much of the predictable deviations from uncovered interest parity uip can be explained by endogenous deviations from ppp

changing beliefs and systematic rational forecast errors with evidence from foreign exchange this paper addresses a new interpretation to the appearance in the early 1980s of systematic errors in forecasting the dollar exchange rate following a change in the process of a fundamental variable market participants revise their beliefs about the process using bayes rule since the market does not immediately recognize the change forecast errors are on average wrong during a period when the market is rationally learning for conservative parameter values the learning behavior of the dollar exchange rate in the early 1980s appears consistent with about half of the dollar s underprediction implied by the forward market copyright 1989 by american economic association

service offshoring and firm employment abstract major technological advances have recently spurred a new wave of offshoring in services which used to be non tradable should service workers in developed countries worry about their jobs trade theory has given a nuanced answer to this question suggesting that efficiency gains from offshoring may counteract direct job losses which leaves the predicted net effect ambiguous this paper investigates the employment effects of service offshoring in a newly combined and exceptionally detailed panel dataset covering almost the entire universe of german firms service imports over the years 2001 2013 it exploits firm specific export supply shocks by partner countries and service types as an instrumental variable to find that service offshoring has increased firm employment in line with the canonical trade in tasks model the employment gains are greater in firms with higher initial levels of service offshoring

anomalies foreign exchange most all behavior can be explained by assuming that agents have stable well defined preferences and make rational choices consistent with those preferences in markets that eventually clear an empirical result qualifies as an anomaly if it is difficult to rationalize or if implausible assumptions are necessary to explain it within the paradigm this column will present a series of such anomalies readers are invited to suggest topics for future columns by sending a note with some reference to or better yet copies of the relevant research comments on anomalies printed here are also welcome the address

offshoring along the production chain recent contributions on offshoring often assume that firms can freely split their production process into separate steps which can be ranked according to the cost savings from producing abroad we replace this assumption by the notion of a technologically determined sequence of production steps in our model cost savings from offshoring fluctuate along the production chain and moving unfinished goods across borders causes transport costs we show that in such a setting firms may refrain from offshoring even if relocating individual steps would be advantageous conversely small variations in model parameters may lead to a large increase in offshoring activities

exchange rate theory and practice this volume grew out of a national bureau of economic research conference on exchange rates held in bellagio italy in 1982 in it the world s most respected international monetary economists discuss three significant new views on the economics of exchange rates rudiger dornbusch s overshooting model jacob frenkel s and michael mussa s asset market variants and pentti kouri s current account portfolio approach their papers test these views with evidence from empirical studies and analyze a number of exchange rate policies in use today including those of the european monetary system

outsourcing and the us labour market there is worldwide concern about the vulnerability of the current labour force to displacement by future imported services in the usa some have suggested that as much as one third of the workforce might be vulnerable to such outsourcing however the labour market impacts of this displacement are difficult to assess using purely analytical or statistical approaches in this paper simulation methods are used to understand how sensitive the us economy and labour market are to increases in services imports specifically the scenario examined assumes that the share of imported services in total employment increases from 0 8 per cent to 7 25 per cent over a time horizon in which workers are unable to change occupations in response it is found that all industries increase their use of imported services and their use of the composite input that is comprised of imported services and tradable labour with the exception of legal workers all workers in tradable occupations experience declines in their real wages demand for non tradable occupations labour rises in the industries that expand the most while demand falls in shrinking industries the non tradable occupations that are used intensively in the shrinking industries experience declines in real wages while the real wages rise for workers in non tradable occupations used intensively in the expanding industries

homeownership and investment in risky assets abstract this paper uses the 1989 survey of consumer finances to show that committed expenditures related to homeownership cause agents to hold their financial assets in a safe form this work follows theoretical results by fratantoni 5 which show that the mortgage commitment leads to reduced risky asset holding and empirical results by guisoet al 7 which show that agents with uncertain labor income hold fewer risky assets i find that doubling the median homeowner s mortgage payment income ratio leads to a 15 decrease in the risky share

exploring the impact of trade and investment on income inequality a cross national sectoral analysis of the developed countries this article explores the relationship between international integration and domestic inequality in the developed countries in the mid 1980s and early 1990s the analysis examines two major modes of integration trade and direct investment disaggregating each by economic sector and distinguishing between imports and exports and inbound and outbound flows and stocks in measuring income inequality extensive use is made of micro data sets that have recently become available through the luxembourg income study lis which provides much more detailed and comparable data on income inequality than has heretofore been the case in particular lis data can be aggregated at the level of economic sector and permit the comparison of pre and post government income the study finds few significant relationships between either trade or investment and sectoral income distribution the overall conclusion is that economic globalization is not a critically important factor in explaining recent trends in income inequa

post unification wage growth in east germany following monetary union with west germany in 1990 the real wage of east german workers rose 83 i use the german socio economic panel data to investigate the determinants of wage growth and assess whether they are consistent with efficient restructuring although job changing rates were initially high the share of wage growth that accrued to movers was little higher than in the west suggesting that the incentives to move were too low for 1990 to 1991 the biggest gainers were low wage workers generally and women and the less educated specifically for 1991 to 1996 the biggest gainers were women and the better educated

outsourcing and optimal nonlinear taxation a note this paper concerns optimal taxation and outsourcing if the government has a direct instrument for taxing outsourcing the policy rules for marginal income taxation remain as in the standard model

a re examination of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis in the presence of multiple unknown structural breaks we test the unbiased forward rate ufr hypothesis using new tests for cointegration developed by hatemi j 2008a that allows for multiple unknown structural breaks we analyse the australian dollar aud euro eur british pound gbp and japanese yen jpy versus the us dollar usd spot rates and forward rates relationship during the period 5 january 1999 to 28 december 2006 we find that the ufr does hold when the effects of the unknown structural breaks are taken into account the parameters that we obtained were close to unity hence taking into account transaction cost and the existence of a risk premium earning arbitrage profits may still not be possible thus the markets for these currencies may still be considered as efficient

expectation puzzles time varying risk premia and dynamic models of the term structure abstract linear projections of returns on the slope of the yield curve have contradicted the implications of the traditional expectations theory this paper shows that these findings are not puzzling relative to a large class of richer dynamic term structure models specifically we match all the key empirical findings reported by fama and bliss 1987 american economic review 77 4 680 692 and campbell and shiller 1991 review of economic studies 58 495 514 among others within large subclasses of affine and quadratic gaussian term structure models additionally we show that certain risk premium adjusted projections of changes in yields on the slope of the yield curve recover the coefficients of unity predicted by the models key to this matching are parameterizations of the market prices of risk that let the risk factors affect the market prices of risk directly and not only through factor volatilities the risk premiums have a simple form consistent with fama s findings on the predictability of forward rates and are also shown to be consistent with interest rate feedback rules used by a monetary authority in setting monetary policy

international capital markets and foreign exchange risk author s brennan michael j xia yihong abstract the relation between the volatilities of pricing kernels associated with di erent currencies and the volatility of the exchange rate between the currencies is derived under the assumption of integrated capital markets and the volatilities of the pricing kernels are related to the foreign exchange risk premium time series of pricing kernel volatilities are estimated from panel data on bond yields for five major currencies using a parsimonious term structure model that allows for time varying pricing kernel volatilities the resulting estimates are used to test hypotheses about the relation between the volatilities of the pricing kernels in di erent currencies and the volatility of the exchange rate as predicted time variation in foreign exchange risk premia is found to be related to time variation in both the volatility of the pricing kernels and the volatility of exchange rates the estimated pricing kernel volatilities can account for the forward premium puzzle in an average sense across exchange rates

whose job goes abroad international outsourcing and individual job separations this paper focuses on the adjustment costs of globalisation by studying the effects of international outsourcing on individual transitions out of jobs in the danish manufacturing sector for the period 1990 2003 a competing risks duration model that distinguishes between jobto job and job to unemployment transitions is estimated outsourcing is found to increase the unemployment risk of low skilled workers but the quantitative impact is modest outsourcing is also found to reduce the job change hazard rate for all education groups thus the paper provides evidence for small adjustment costs of globalisation

portfolio choice in retirement health risk and the demand for annuities housing and risky assets in a life cycle model a retiree faces stochastic health depreciation and chooses consumption health expenditure and the allocation of wealth between bonds stocks and housing the model explains key facts about asset allocation and health expenditure across health status and age the portfolio share in stocks is low overall and is positively related to health especially for younger retirees the portfolio share in housing is negatively related to health for younger retirees and falls significantly in age finally out of pocket health expenditure as a share of income is negatively related to health and rises in age

differences and changes in wage structures preface introduction and summary richard b freeman lawrence f katz 1 a comparison of changes in the structure of wages in four oecd countries lawrence f katz gary w loveman david g blanchflower 2 international differences in executive and managerial compensation john m abowd michael l bognanno 3 the gender earnings gap some international evidence francine d blau lawrence m kahn 4 international wage curves david g blanchflower andrew j oswald 5 the changing structure of male earnings in britain 1974 1988 john schmitt 6 real wages employment and wage dispersion in u s and australian labor markets robert g gregory francis vella 7 labor markets and economic growth lessons from korea s industrialization 1970 1990 dae il kim robert h topel 8 wage differentials in italy market forces institutions and inflation christopher l erickson andrea c ichino 9 the swedish wage structure the rise and fall of solidarity wage policy per anders edin bertil holmlund 10 getting together and breaking apart the decline of centralized collective bargaining richard b freeman robert s gibbons 11 earnings inequality in germany katharine g abraham susan n houseman 12 a comparative analysis of east and west german labor markets before and after unification alan b krueger jorn steffen pischke contributors author index subject index

work characteristics firm size and wages a positive wage firm size relationship is well documented in the empirical literature in industrial organization and labor economics firm size seems to proxy various unobserved determinants such as job satisfaction monitoring costs more complex technologies and worker participation in monopoly profits it is generally argued that the greater the possibility of controlling for these latent factors the less likely that a significant size effect will appear this paper attempts to distinguish firm size from other wage determinants for a rich data source for west germany and demonstrates the persistence of the size premium

exchange rates and interest rates can term structure models explain currency movements abstract we construct an international term structure model that has excellent empirical performance in tracking movements of exchange rates and currency returns the forward premium puzzle is accounted for yet the model does not have the undesirable properties found in backus et al j finance 56 2001 279 examination of the estimated factor structure indicates that local factors are not important in the us uk and german markets moreover we find that term structure factors alone cannot satisfactorily explain exchange rate movements in other words exchange rates are also affected by other factors that are not in the interest rate dynamics

time diversification definitions and some closed form solutions abstract we establish general conditions under which younger investors should invest a larger proportion of their wealth in risky assets than older ones in the finite horizon dynamic setting we show that such phenomenon known as time diversification can occur in the presence of human wealth guaranteed consumption or mean reverting stock returns we formalize two alternative notions of time diversification commonly confounded in the literature analytic solutions are provided for both time series and cross sectional forms of time diversification to our best knowledge this paper is the first to solve in closed form the hedging demand for a cara investor with inter temporal consumption and a finite horizon facing mean reverting expected returns our results indicate that horizon can have a significant effect on the portfolio demand of a cara investor due to inter temporal hedging

ability biased technological transition wage inequality and economic growth thispaper develops a growthmodel characterizedbyability biasedtechnological transition in which the evolution of technology education attainment and wage inequality is consistent with the observed pattern in the united states and other advanced countries over the past several decades it argues that an increase in the rate of technological progress raises the return to ability and simultaneously generates an increase in wage inequality between and within groups of skilled and unskilled workers an increase in average wages of skilled workers a temporary decline in average wages of unskilled workers an increase in education and a productivity transitory slowdown

globalization outsourcing and wage inequality there is considerable debate over whether international trade has contributed to the declining economic fortunes of less skilled workers one issue that has become lost in the current discussion is how firms respond to import competition and how these responses in turn are transmitted to the labor market in previous work we have argued that outsourcing by which we mean the import of intermediate inputs by domestic firms has contributed to an increase in the relative demand for skilled labor in the united states if firms respond to import competition from low wage countries by moving non skill intensive activities abroad then trade will shift employment towards skilled workers within industries in this paper we extend our previous work by combining new import data from the revised nber trade database with disaggregated data on input purchases from the census of manufactures we construct industry by industry estimates of outsourcing for the period 1972 1990 and reexamine whether outsourcing has contributed to an increase in relative demand for skilled labor our main finding is that outsourcing can account for 31 51 of the increase in the relative demand for skilled labor that occurred in u s manufacturing industries during the 1980s compared to our previous estimate of 15 33 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

structural reforms and labor market outcomes international panel data evidence this paper explores the impact of structural reforms on a comprehensive set of macro level labor market outcomes including the unemployment rate the average wage index and overall and female employment levels and labor force participation rates together these outcome variables capture the overall health of the labor market and the aggregate welfare of workers yet there seems to be no other comprehensive empirical investigation in the existing literature of the impact of structural reforms at the cross country macro level on labor market outcomes other than the unemployment rate data were collected from a variety of sources including the world bank world development indicators the international monetary fund international financial statistics and the international labor organization key indicators of the labor market the resulting dataset covers up to 88 countries the majority being developing for 10 years on either side of structural reforms that took place between 1960 and 2001 after documenting the average trends across countries in the labor market outcomes up to 10 years on either side of each country s structural reform year the authors run fixed effects ordinary least squares as well as instrumental variables regressions to account for the likely endogeneity of structural reforms to labor market outcomes overall the results suggest that structural reforms lead to positive outcomes for labor unlike related literature the paper does not find conclusive evidence on unemployment redistributive effects in favor of workers along the lines of the stolper samuelson effect may be at work

winners and losers a micro level analysis of international outsourcing and wages our paper investigates the link between international outsourcing and wages utilizing a large household panel and combining it with industry level information on industries outsourcing activities from input output tables this approach avoids prob lems such as aggregation bias potential endogeneity bias and poor skill definitions that commonly hamper industry level studies we find that outsourcing has had a marked impact on wages applying two alternative skill classifications we find evidence that a 1 percentage point increase in outsourcing reduced the wage for workers in the lowest skill categories by up to 1 5 while it increased wages for high skilled workers by up to 2 6 this result is robust to a number of different specifications jel classification f16 j31 gagnants et perdants une analyse micro economique de la sous traitance internationale et des salaires ce memoire etudie le lien entre la sous traitance internationale et les salaires a l aide de donnees d un grand panel de menages qu on combine avec des donnees au niveau des industries sur les activites de sous traitance de celles qui en font obtenues des tableaux interindustriels cette approche evite les problemes qui habituellement polluent les etudes au niveau de l industrie biais d agregation biais d endogeneite potentielle mauvaises definitions des habiletes on decouvre que la sous traitance a un effet sur les salaires a l aide de differentes formes de classification des habiletes il appert qu un point de pourcentage d augmentation dans la sous traitance reduit les salaires des travailleurs dans les categories d habilete les plus basses de 1 5 alors qu il accroit les salaires de travailleurs specialises de 2 6 ce resultat est robuste et avere meme quand on utilise diverses specifications

welfare state retrenchment revisited entitlement cuts public sector restructuring and inegalitarian trends in advanced capitalist societies in recent years it has become commonplace for comparativists to emphasize the resilience of welfare states in advanced capitalist societies and the failure of neoliberal efforts to dismantle the welfare state challenging some tenets of the resilience thesis this article seeks to broaden the discussion of welfare state retrenchment the authors argue that a sharp deceleration of social spending has occurred in most oecd countries since 1980 that welfare states have failed to offset the rise of market generated inequality and insecurity and that welfare programs have become less universalistic they stress the distributive and political consequences of market oriented reforms of the public sector

outsourcing and the skilled unskilled wage gap abstract within the context of a product variety model this paper examines the impact of outsourcing of skill intensive tasks on the skilled unskilled wage gap outsourcing affects the wage gap through direct as well as indirect channels while outsourcing decreases the effective wage of skilled workers in the services sector owing to inter sectoral labour mobility its overall impact on the equilibrium skilled wage is positive through an increase in the size of external economies in the industrial sector outsourcing can reduce the unskilled wage in overall terms outsourcing of skill intensive tasks increases the skilled unskilled wage gap

is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable a genetic programming approach using genetic programming techniques to find technical trading rules we find strong evidence of economically significant out of sample excess returns to those rules for each of six exchange rates over the period 1981 1995 further when the dollar deutsche mark rules are allowed to determine trades in the other markets there is significant improvement in performance in all cases except for the deutsche mark yen betas calculated for the returns according to various benchmark portfolios provide no evidence that the returns to these rules are compensation for bearing systematic risk bootstrapping results on the dollar deutsche mark indicate that the trading rules detect patterns in the data that are not captured by standard statistical models

liquidity constraints and intertemporal consumer optimization theory and evidence from durable goods this paper develops and tests the implications of optimal consumption behavior with borrowing constraints the theory shows that liquidity constraints imply a distinctive intertemporal relationship between durable and nondurable goods consumption binding liquidity constraints appear as part of an error correction term derived from the long run cointegrating relationship between durables and nondurables when liquidity constraints are binding the error correction term will have predictive power for the future change in nondurable consumption empirical tests of the implications using aggregate data support the hypothesis that liquidity constraints rather than rule of thumb behavior best explain the excess sensitivity of consumption to predictable changes in income copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

extreme support for uncovered interest parity abstract concerning uip the common conclusion is that it may be valid but undetectable for many reasons in this paper we take a complementary route in that we base our methodology on a random time effects panel model that controls for various biasing factors and which is invariant to the choice of the numeraire currency we show that the rejection of uip is not as severe as is commonly found and that it almost perfectly holds in periods where the forward premiums are large

the rise and fall of centralized wage bargaining during the three decades spanning the early 1950s to the early 1980s the wage setting process in most northern european countries was dominated by centralized bargaining i e peak level labor and employer associations set wages nationwide in the early 1980s centralized wage bargaining began to collapse in this paper we assess a novel explanation for both the initial establishment of a centralized wage setting process and its subsequent collapse according to our theory centralized wage bargaining was set up as a response to the spillovers created by the unemployment benefit program its collapse was the result of the increase in the productivity gap across workers brought about by equipment specific technological progress and equipment skill complementarity

how do regimes affect asset allocation international equity returns are characterized by episodes of high volatility and unusually high correlations coinciding with bear markets this article provides models of asset returns that match

redistributive income taxation under outsourcing and foreign direct investment this paper deals with optimal income taxation under international outsourcing and fdi we show how the joint effect of outsourcing and fdi on the optimal marginal income tax rates depends on whethe

offshoring the nature of tasks and occupational stability empirical evidence for germany using a large administrative data set of individual employment histories for germany this paper studies the relationship between offshoring and the individual risk of leaving the occupation moreover a rich data set on tasks performed in occupations is used to better characterise the sources of worker vulnerability both material and service offshoring are on average not associated with an increase in occupational outflow rates however this association depends on the nature of tasks performed in the occupation higher intensities of interactive and in particular non routine tasks are associated with a larger decrease or a smaller increase in the occupational hazard rate

monetary union and wage bargaining institutions in the eu extrapolating from some member state experiences this article considers the question of how monetary union in the eu is likely to impact the preferences of governments employers and unions regarding the organization of wage bargaining european monetary union involves a decentralization of wage bargaining centered at the national level in relation to monetary policy centralized at the european level drawing on recent literature and on the experience of two member states italy and spain which prior to emu underwent periods of intense bargaining fragmentation the author argues that the imposition of restrictive monetary policy in a fragmented wage bargaining context in which workers nonetheless have substantial bargaining rights tends to have perverse effects these effects ultimately led governments and bargaining actors in italy and spain to seek a reorganization of bargaining that gave national actors greater control over wage setting the article considers to what extent a similar dynamic might play out in the euro zone