short selling and the price discovery process we show that stock prices are more accurate when short sellers are more active first in a large panel of nyse listed stocks intraday informational efficiency of prices improves with greater shorting flow second at monthly and annual horizons more shorting flow accelerates the incorporation of public information into prices third greater shorting flow reduces post earnings announcement drift for negative earnings surprises fourth short sellers change their trading around extreme return events in a way that aids price discovery and reduces divergence from fundamental values these results are robust to various econometric specifications and their magnitude is economically meaningful the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

the speed of the invisible hand abstract very little attention has been devoted to incorporating dynamic elements into empirical models of market structure and performance consequently there has been little progress in settling the issue of whether the market structure profits relationship is more than just a temporary phenomenon in this study an estimation equation is developed which allows for incomplete adjustment of past profits from expected future profits where expected profits depends on present and expected future changes in market structure the model is estimated pooling panel data across industries the findings indicate that adjustment to abnormal profits is relatively quick market share adjustments are non instantaneous and that inclusion of industry specific effects is important the results suggest that previous studies are susceptible to specification bias from omitted variables

dynamic market models in industrial organization abstract this paper surveys empirical work done on dynamic models of market performance these fall into one of two categories structural models which model how market structure and performance change in response to entry and reduced form models which describe change regardless of how it is brought about a typical example of each type of model is chosen from the literature and simulations are used to draw out the implications of the estimated coefficients both models depict the competitive process in the us economy as being extremely slow

volatility spread and stock market response to earnings announcements abstract using a broad sample of earnings announcements we find a monotonic increase in the spread between call and put implied volatilities as it gets closer to the earnings announcement date the steady build up of volatility spread in the days leading up to the announcement date coupled with the predictive power of cumulative abnormal implied volatility spread on subsequent announcement returns suggests that informed traders are the driving force behind the option market activities prior to earnings announcements such informed trading as proxied by the abnormal implied volatility spread increases rather than decreases the stock market response to earnings announcements after controlling for an array of firm and announcement characteristics this effect is most pronounced when the pre earnings option trading volume is heightened overall our findings lend strong support to the notion that informed options trading immediately before earnings announcements helps alleviate the stock market under reaction to earnings announcements and make it closer to a complete response

comparing the post earnings announcement drift for surprises calculated from analyst and time series forecasts post earnings announcement drift is the tendency for a stock s cumulative abnormal returns to drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for several weeks following an earnings announcement we show that the drift is significantly larger when defining the earnings surprise using analysts forecasts and actual earnings from i b e s than when using a time series model based on compustat earnings data neither compustat s policy of restating earnings nor the inclusion of special items in reported earnings contribute significantly to the disparity in drift magnitudes rather our results suggest that this disparity is attributable to differences between analyst forecasts and those of time series models or at least to factors correlated with these differences further we document that analyst forecasts lead to return patterns around future earnings announcements that differ from those observed when using time series models suggesting that the two types of surprises may capture somewhat different forms of mispricing

the sources of business interest in social insurance sectoral versus national differences when and why have employers supported the development of institutions of social insurance that provide benefits to workers during various employment related risks the analysis developed in this article challenges the dominant explanations of welfare state development which are premised on the assumption that business opposes social insurance the article examines the conditions under which self interested profit maximizing firms support the introduction of a new social policy and it specifies the most significant variables explaining the variation in employers social policy preferences the model is tested in three political episodes of welfare state development in france and germany using policy documents submitted by various employers associations to bureaucratic and parliamentary commissions

a simultaneous equation analysis of advertising concentration and profitability nearly two decades of econometric research have been completed in testing relationships between industrial market structure and performance recently a number of authors have reexamined these studies and cautioned on a number of conceptual difficulties which subject the results and interpretation of previous empirical work to question one primary criticism of previous research has been the failure to account for the simultaneous nature of the interrelation among elements of industry structure conduct and performance 2 4 5 11 22 25 30 while the determinants of variables such as profits advertising and concentration have been examined separately within the context of single equation models the underlying theory suggests that these variables are more properly considered as jointly determined within a system of simultaneous equations estimation of single equation models when a simultaneous system is appropriate leads to parameter estimates that are both biased and inconsistent previous empirical studies of the structure performance relationship have also suffered due to the omission of certain critical variables first the role of international trade as an element of market structure has yet to be generally incorporated into empirical studies in spite of recent theoretical work that has demonstrated its potential importance 3 20 21 second interindustry differentials in the price elasticity of demand have been neglected even though theoretical analysis clearly underscores the necessity of explicity accounting for

specifying the dynamics of industry concentration previous studies generally explain changes in concentration by its initial determinants or by changes in its determinants little attention is paid to the dynamic structure of the model this study provides a framework to sort out adjustment effects in a systematic manner the empirical model distinguishes long term from short term effects and estimates the rate of adjustment when concentration deviates from its long term equilibrium level considerable attention has focused on industry concentration as a key element of market structure while earlier empirical studies examined determinants of the level of industry concentration a more recent literature focuses on changes in concentration these more recent papers typically explain intertemporal changes in concentration by the past levels of industry growth concentration advertising intensity and minimum efficient plant size however the dynamic relationship between changes in concentration and the levels of the independent variables has not been explicitly specified caves and porter 1980 have argued that explaining changes in concentration by past levels of market structure variables is tantamount to assuming that the sampled industries are in the process of adjusting to a disequilibrium situation as an alternative they adopt a long term equilibrium approach whereby changes in concentration are explained by lagged changes in the relevant market conditions they find that this approach as a whole was unsuccessful exhibiting low levels of significance and a lack of robustness when the cross section regressions were shifted to different time periods

advertising sunk costs and barriers to entry this paper tests hypotheses about the entry deterring effects of advertising the model isolates three separate effects of advertising on entry the effect on the irrecoverable costs of entry the effect on the uncertainty underlying the entry environment and the effect on the measured rates of profit we find that advertising impedes entry since necessary advertising expenditures give rise to a sunk cost which raises the risk of entry however we also find a countervailing force due to advertising in that the entrant perceives a greater likelihood of success in markets where advertising is important our analysis shows that the overall impact of advertising on entry is positive

tangible and intangible sunk costs and the entry and exit of firms in a small open economy the case of austria the paper provides evidence on the role of sunk costs as mobility barriers an empirical study of the austrian manufacturing industry explicitly considers sunk costs related to investment in dedicated intangible assets the results confirm the relevance of sunk costs as mobility barriers their symmetry with respect to entry and exit and show that the influence of sunk costs is robust to aggregation

do stock prices fully reflect the implications of special items for future earnings previous research rendleman jones and latane 1987 freeman and tse 1989 bernard and thomas 1990 and ball and bartov 1996 indicates that security prices do not fully reflect predictable elements of the relation between current and future quarterly earnings we investigate whether this finding also holds for the special items component of earnings given that special items are prominent in financial analysis and are assumed to have relatively straightforward implications for future earnings special items are assumed to be largely transitory one might expect that prices would fully impound the implications of special items for future earnings based on the two equation approach used in ball and bartov 1996 and other studies e g abarbanell and bernard 1992 sloan 1996 rangan and sloan 1998 and soffer and lys 1999 we find that while prices reflect relatively more of the effects of special items compared to other earnings components we still reject the null hypothesis that prices fully impound the implications of special items for future earnings the two equation approach assesses the consistency of coefficients in a pair of prediction and pricing equations and thus depends on an assumed functional form however a less structured abnormal returns methodology like that used in bernard and thomas 1990 also supports the conclusion that the implications of special items are not fully impounded in prices specifically a trading strategy based only on the sign of special items earns small but statistically significant abnormal returns during a 3 day window four quarters subsequent to the original announcement of special items

analyzing the analysts career concerns and biased earnings forecasts this paper examines the career concerns of security analysts we relate long histories of their earnings forecasts to job separations we find that relatively accurate past forecasts lead to favorable career outcomes such as remaining at or moving up to a high status large prestigious brokerage house controlling for accuracy optimistic forecasts relative to the consensus increase the chances of favorable job separations job separations depend much less on accuracy for analysts who cover stocks that are underwritten by their brokerage houses such analysts are also much more likely to be rewarded for optimistic forecasts than other analysts furthermore job separations were much less sensitive to accuracy and somewhat more sensitive to optimism during the stock market mania of the late 1990s these findings suggest that the well documented analyst forecast optimism bias is likely due to incentives to promote stocks

investor and value line analyst underreaction to information about future earnings the corrective role of non earnings surprise information prior research suggests that financial analysts earnings forecasts and stock prices underreact to earnings news this paper provides evidence that analysts and investors correct this underreaction in response to the next earnings announcement and to other non earnings surprise information available between earnings announcements our evidence also suggests that analysts and investors underreact to information reflected in analysts earnings forecast revisions and that non earnings surprise information helps correct this underreaction as well controlling for corrective non earnings surprise information significantly increases estimates of the degree to which analysts forecasting behavior can explain drifts in returns following both earnings announcements and analysts earnings forecast revisions

information uncertainty and the post earnings announcement drift in europe investigating the effect of earnings announcement abnormal return and of abnormal trading volume on future returns for a large sample of european companies with both annual and interim announcements over 1997 2010 the author found that the two measures of market surprise are positively related to future abnormal returns especially when information uncertainty is high these two effects also appear to be complementary in that each retains some incremental predictive power for future returns

analyst forecasting errors and their implications for security analysis a comparison of 66 100 consensus estimates of wall street analysts with reported earnings for a large sample of nyse amex and otc companies demonstrates that their forecasts differ significantly from actual reported earnings a minority of estimates fall within a range around reported earnings considered acceptable to many professional investors the error rates are not meaningfully affected by the business cycle or industry groupings the average error also appears to be increasing over time these findings question the use of finely calibrated earnings forecasts that are integral to the most common valuation models and indirectly question the valuation methods themselves

does meeting earnings expectations matter evidence from analyst forecast revisions and share prices this paper investigates whether the market rewards firms meeting current period earnings expectations and whether any such reward reflects the implications of meeting expectations in the current period for future earnings or reflects a distinct market premium we document that abnormal annual returns are significantly greater for firms meeting expectations controlling for the information in the current year s earnings we then test whether firms meeting expectations experience higher returns simply because their expected future earnings are also higher we find firms meeting expectations have significantly higher earnings forecasts and realized earnings than firms that do not we find that controlling for these higher future earnings firms meeting expectations in one or two years do not receive a greater valuation than their fundamentals would suggest we find however that the market assigns a higher value to firms that meet expectations consistently controlling for an estimate of the firm s fundamental value

information in the tails of the distribution of analysts quarterly earnings forecasts investors generally measure earnings announcement news on the basis of the difference between actual earnings and two salient benchmarks earnings in the same quarter the previous year and a consensus drawn from a distribution of forecasts by financial analysts we evaluate the implications of a third salient benchmark the most optimistic forecast when actual earnings exceed the consensus and the most pessimistic forecast when the consensus exceeds actual earnings we find that considering the information in these tails of the distribution of analysts earnings forecasts enhances the profitability of post earnings announcement drift strategies

the reductionist gamble open economy politics in the global economy international political economy ipe should transition to third wave scholarship because open economy politics oep which dominates current american ipe scholarship can generate inaccurate knowledge oep can produce inaccurate knowledge because it studies domestic politics in isolation from international or macro processes this methodological reductionism is often inappropriate for the phenomena ipe studies because governments inhabit a complex social system as a result the political choices that oep strives to explain are typically a product of the interplay between domestic politics and macro processes when oep omits causally significant macro processes from empirical models the models yield biased inferences about the domestic political relationships under investigation although scholars tolerated such errors when the gains from oep were large these errors are less tolerable now that oep has matured consequently the field should transition toward research that is nonreductionist problem driven and pluralistic

conservatism and cross sectional variation in the post earnings announcement drift accounting conservatism allows me to identify a previously undocumented source of predictable cross sectional variation in standardized unexpected earnings autocorrelations viz the sign of the most recent earnings realization and present evidence that the market ignores this variation loss effect it is possible to earn returns higher than from the bernard and thomas 1990 strategy by incorporating this feature additionally the paper shows that the loss effect is different from the cross quarter effect shown by rangan and sloan 1998 and it is possible to combine the two effects to earn returns higher than either strategy alone thus the paper corroborates the bernard and thomas finding that stock prices fail to reflect the extent to which quarterly earnings series differ from a seasonal random walk and extends it by showing that the market systematically underestimates time series properties resulting from accounting conservatism

competition between microfinance ngos evidence from kiva summary this paper investigates empirically the effect of competition between microfinance ngos seeking subsidized capital from individual social investors although ngo behavior in competitive environments is often subject to controversy there is little formal empirical evidence to illustrate theoretical findings and inform policy using data from kiva an online peer to peer p2p microfinance platform we find that competition has a sizable negative impact on projects funding speed and that the effect is stronger between close substitutes this is important because competition for subsidized capital implies organizational pressures similar to those faced when ngos compete for donations

do investors see through mistakes in reported earnings this study investigates whether investors see through materially misstated earnings and whether they anticipate earnings restatements for firms that restate at least one annual report we find that investors are misled by mistakes in reported earnings at the time of initial earnings announcements investors react positively to the component of the favorable earnings surprise that will subsequently be restated and they attach the same valuation to it as to the true earnings surprise we also find that investors anticipate the subsequent downward restatements and start marking stock prices down several months before a restatement announcement so that the full impact of a restatement is about three times as large as the restatement announcement effect indeed we show that investors punish restating firms because the stock price gains that shareholders enjoy when firms initially announce overstated earnings are more than reversed by the time of the restatement announcement

market dynamics and dichotomy evidence from taiwanese manufacturing in taiwan a dichotomous market structure is closely related to the progress of economic development the purpose of the present article is to examine the market dynamics and dichotomous nature of taiwanese manufacturing a model of dynamic adjustment of industry structure is considered when both the speed of adjustment and the long run market concentration are allowed to vary across industries we use 118 four digit manufacturing industries for empirical analysis of our models spanning between 1981 and 1991 empirical findings show that both the speed of adjustment and long run industry concentration are predominantly determined by minimum efficient scale the speed of adjustment is much faster in a small open economy like taiwan compared to mature economies like the us and australia in addition the dichotomous nature of the market is supported in our findings for both periods viz 1981 1986 and 1986 1991 albeit weaker for the later period

what factors inspire the high entry flow in taiwan s manufacturing industries a count entry model approach why is the entry flow of the manufacturing sector extremely high in taiwan and does it contribute to the prevailing entrepreneurship this article aims to explore what factors inspire potential entrants to go into an industry based on a theoretical formulation of the poisson probability entry model a count data model is employed to investigate the determinants of entry flows the empirical results reveal that traditional entry barriers indeed lower the entry flow the entry incentives including price cost margin and industry growth play a lesser role at attracting new firms while alternatively the market size acts as a better proxy of an entry incentive in explaining entry flows incumbents responses to entry r d and advertising intensity are found to be associated with a significant negative impact on entry flows this article also finds that there is a higher bound of covariate of entry about 10 that can be attributed to the immeasurable personality of entrepreneurs entrepreneurship rather b

profit entry and changes in concentration abstract the simultaneity between profit entry and changes in concentration is examined the sample includes 481 observations on 4 digit industries over the years 1972 1977 and 1977 1982 results show that profits respond positively to entry barriers and initial concentration net entry responds positively to initial profits and responds negatively to entry barriers concentration moves toward its steady state level but the rate of adjustment is very slow the competitive process left on its own does not seem to move quickly toward equilibrium

religious holidays investor distraction and earnings announcement effects abstract we examine price reactions to u s firms earnings announcements during easter week in order to analyze whether and how the religious holiday calendar impacts investors information processing we find that there is an asymmetric pattern of immediate and delayed responses to earnings surprises experienced during easter entailing similar immediate reactions to both good and bad news and a stronger delayed response to bad news moreover local religious characteristics affect investor s response to firm news the results are consistent with a religion induced distraction effect on investors information processing ability we also show that this effect can form the basis for a profitable trading strategy the findings highlight the importance of religion for firms information environment and for the local component of stock prices

gaap versus the street an empirical assessment of two alternative definitions of earnings managers security analysts investors and the press rely increasingly on modified definitions of gaap net income known by such names as operating and pro forma earnings we document this phenomenon and discuss competing explanations for the recent rise in the use of such modified earnings numbers and implications for the interpretation of related accounting research our results show that over the past 20 years there has been a dramatic increase in the frequency and magnitude of cases where gaap and street earnings differ further there is a very strong bias toward the reporting of a street earnings number that exceeds the gaap earnings number we also show that the market response to the street earnings number has displaced gaap earnings as a primary determinant of stock prices finally through an analysis of earnings releases we show that management has taken a proactive role in defining and emphasizing the street number when communicating to analysts and investors

the rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations abstract this paper finds that firms that meet or beat current analysts earnings expectations mbe enjoy a higher return over the quarter than firms with similar quarterly earnings forecast errors that fail to meet these expectations further such a premium to mbe although somewhat smaller exists in the cases where mbe is likely to have been achieved through earnings or expectations management the findings also indicate that the premium to mbe is a leading indicator of future performance this premium and its predictive ability are only marginally affected by whether the mbe is genuine or the result of earnings or expectations management

innovation and the evolution of market structure this paper examines the association between innovation and the evolution of market structure a dynamic model of market concentration is applied to seventy three u k industries 1970 79 and the results are found to be consistent with the hypothesis that innovation is deconcentrating the results reported here and those contained in earlier work combine to suggest that innovation and changes in market concentration interact in a relatively rapid mutually reinforcing but rather weak spiral of increased innovation and decreasing concentration copyright 1990 by blackwell publishing ltd

economic insecurity and social policy expansion evidence from interwar europe what is the impact of economic insecurity on the development of institutions of social insurance existing studies have examined this question by exploring the impact of various measures of economic volatility on aggregate government expenditures or revenues these aggregate data are however an imperfect proxy of the character of institutions of social protection to overcome the limitations of earlier studies this article explores the conditions under which economic insecurity leads to the extension of the level of social insurance coverage i argue that economic insecurity sharpens a sectoral cleavage between coalitions in high risk and low risk sectors workers and some employers in high risk sectors will favor the introduction of social insurance institutions characterized by broad levels of coverage and a high redistribution of costs across occupations in contrast a cross class alliance in low risk sectors will oppose proposals aiming at the introduction of redistributive social policies fearing that these policies will turn them into subsidizers of high risk industries a redistributive social insurance policy will be introduced only if the high risk coalition is larger the article tests both the micro and macro level implications of this theory by examining the development of unemployment insurance policies in interwar europe i gratefully acknowledge comments from carles boix peter gourevitch and two anonymous referees many thanks to stefano bartolini john fitzgerald and michael tomz for sharing data with me

the dynamics of market structure abstract in this paper changes in market concentration are modelled in terms of long run steady state levels and the adjustment towards them both the speed of adjustment and the long run levels of concentration are allowed to vary across industries non linear three stage least squares estimates for allowing for the endogeneity of profits and advertising for 184 u s industries 1963 1967 suggest that both the speed of adjustment and the levels of concentration in the long run are largely determined by minimum efficient scale

industrial restructuring and economic growth the last two decades have been a period of structural change in industrialised countries the extent of this restructuring process has been different across countries and industries though in this paper we investigate the effect of lagging behind in the process of downsizing and deconcentration we find empirical evidence of industries that experienced only little downsizing when compared internationally to experience less subsequent growth on average however this effect is industry dependent and its magnitude depends upon whether firm or establishment data are used technologically advanced industries are found to be particularly sensitive to lack of restructuring

bias in european analysts earnings forecasts forecasting company earnings is a difficult and hazardous task in an efficient market where analysts learn from past mistakes there should be no persistent and systematic biases in consensus earnings accuracy previous research has already established how some single individual company characteristics systematically influence forecast accuracy so far however the effect on consensus earnings biases of a company s sector and country affiliation combined with a range of other fundamental characteristics has remained largely unexplored using data for 1993 2002 this article disentangles and quantifies for a broad universe of european stocks how the number of analysts following a stock the dispersion of their forecasts the volatility of earnings the sector and country classification of the covered company and its market capitalization influence the accuracy of the consensus earnings forecast

predicting individual analyst earnings forecasts in this study i propose and test a model that predicts individual analyst forecasts of corporate earnings per share eps using the change in the mean consensus forecast of other analysts since the date of the analyst s current outstanding forecast the deviation of the analyst s current forecast from the consensus forecast and cumulative stock returns since the date of the analyst s current forecast i find that these three variables explain about 38 of the variability in analyst forecast revisions while there is evidence of a relation between changes in earnings expectations and price changes virtually all of the explanatory power of my model arises from other analyst forecasts section 2 describes the data bases used and the sample selection process section 3 presents the model and method for predicting individual analyst forecasts section 4 reports the bias and accuracy of the predicted forecasts conclusions are in section 5

implications of herding behavior for earnings estimation risk assessment and stock returns experts earnings predictions exhibit positive bias and disappointing accuracy these shortcomings are usually attributed to some combination of incomplete knowledge incompetence and or misrepresentation this article suggests that the human desire for consensus leads to herding behavior among earnings forecasters herding results in a reduction in the dispersion and an increase in the mean of the distribution of expert forecasts creating positive bias and inaccuracy in published earnings estimates investors mistake reduced dispersion for reduced risk and positive bias for high future returns these misperceptions lead to abnormally low returns from stocks with unpredictable earning streams

autocorrelation structure of forecast errors from time series models alternative assessments of the causes of post earnings announcement drift abstract this paper demonstrates that the evidence supporting the hypothesis that post earnings announcement drift pead is caused by investors failure to incorporate the implications of current earnings for future earnings is also consistent with researchers over differencing an already stationary time series specifically we show the evidence is driven by a subset of firms where over differencing of quarterly earnings in estimating earnings surprises is most likely to have occurred given the persistence of the pead over time our alternative explanation suggests that the prior research investigating the causes for the pead overestimates investors naivete

self selection and analyst coverage this paper examines the relation between analysts information about a stock s future prospects and their decisions to issue investment recommendations and earnings forecasts for that stock and the implications of this relation for the observed distribution of recommendations and earnings forecast errors articles in the financial press have long argued that analysts are reluctant to issue unfavorable investment information perhaps because they fear jeopardizing potential investment banking

globalization welfare regimes and social protection expenditures in western and eastern european countries this paper analyzes the effects of globalization on social protection expenditures in european countries the particular focus is on a the eastern european countries and b on differences in globalization effects between welfare regimes we find evidence in favor of the compensation hypothesis in western europe which is driven by the conservative welfare regime outweighing the efficiency effect of globalization in the social democratic welfare regime in eastern european countries the efficiency effect is predominant no globalization effect is found for the liberal and the southern welfare regimes

biased forecasts or biased earnings the role of reported earnings in explaining apparent bias and over underreaction in analysts earnings forecasts the extensive literature that investigates whether analysts earnings forecasts are biased and or inefficient has produced conflicting evidence and no definitive answers to either question this paper shows how two relatively small but statistically influential asymmetries in the tail and the middle of distributions of analysts forecast errors can exaggerate or obscure evidence consistent with analyst bias and inefficiency leading to inconsistent inferences we identify an empirical link between firms recognition of unexpected accruals and the presence of the two asymmetries in distributions of forecast errors that suggests that firm reporting choices play an important role in determining analysts forecast errors r 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

government spending and public support for trade in the oecd an empirical test of the embedded liberalism thesis according to the embedded liberalism thesis governments committed to free trade provide insurance and other transfers to compensate those who lose economically from expanded trade the goal of this spending is to maintain public support for trade liberalization we provide a micro level test of the critical assumption behind the embedded liberalism thesis that government programs designed to protect individuals harmed by imports reduce opposition to free trade our micro results have important implications for the macro relationship between trade and government spending which we also test we find empirical support for the embedded liberalism thesis in both our micro and macro level analyses earlier versions of this article were presented at the midwest political science association s 2002 meeting and at the university of illinois during summer 2003 we thank the respective panel and seminar participants for their feedback in addition we want to acknowledge valuable comments from william bernhard rebecca blank kerwin charles alan deardorff john dinardo john freeman brian gaines jim granato nathan jensen william keech layna mosley robert pahre ken scheve marina whitman two anonymous reviewers and lisa martin they of course are not responsible for any errors

arbitrage risk and post earnings announcement drift this study examines whether the magnitude of post earnings announcement drift is related to the risk faced by arbitrageurs who may view the anomaly as a trading opportunity consistent with this hypothesis the magnitude of the drift is strongly related to the arbitrage risk measure developed by wurgler and zhuravskaya 2002 the effect of arbitrage risk is statistically and economically significant in a range of specifications the results support the view of post earnings announcement drift as an underreaction to earnings information

do bright line earnings surprises really affect stock price reactions several influential studies have concluded that earnings surprises just to the right or to the left of a hypothesized bright line produce distinct price reactions compared with surrounding earnings surprises because they convey special meaning in this study we examine whether previous inferences of asymmetric stock price reactions to bright line surprises are observed when empirical tests are designed to be consistent with a rational expectations equilibrium focusing on a small range of earnings surprises around hypothesized bright lines we find no evidence of asymmetric price reactions once investors ex ante expectation of bias in earnings surprises is controlled results from additional tests yield support for the external validity of the theoretical framework underlying our bright line pricing tests our findings suggest simple refinements to traditional bins comparison and regression tests for asymmetric price reactions to bright line earnings surprises which account for necessary conditions imp

the multiperiod information content of accounting earnings confirmations and contradictions of previous earnings reports in this study we propose and test the hypothesis that investors reevaluate earnings announcements in the light of postannouncement information 1 our argument for multiperiod price reactions to earnings news is motivated by the literature linking price responses to earnings persistence 2 when earnings are announced we assume that investors are unable to determine with certainty the persistence of an earnings

earnings acceleration and stock returns abstract we document that earnings acceleration defined as the quarter over quarter change in earnings growth has significant explanatory power for future excess returns these excess returns are robust to a wide range of previously documented anomalies and a battery of risk controls the future return predictability appears to be consistent with investors assuming a seasonal random walk model for quarterly earnings and missing predictable implications of earnings acceleration for future earnings growth finally the excess returns from the basic earnings acceleration strategy can be enhanced further by focusing on profit firms low earnings volatility firms and on specific patterns of earnings acceleration

conflict of interest and the credibility of underwriter analyst recommendations brokerage analysts frequently comment on and sometimes recommend companies that their firms have recently taken public we show that stocks that underwriter analysts recommend perform more poorly than buy recommendations by unaffiliated brokers prior to at the time of and subsequent to the recommendation date we conclude that the recommendations by underwriter analysts show significant evidence of bias we show also that the market does not recognize the full extent of this bias the results suggest a potential conflict of interest inherent in the different functions that investment bankers perform

predictability bias in the u s equity market in an investigation of an asset pricing anomaly predictability bias stocks were classified into quintiles based on how predictable the company s earnings have been in the past as measured by analysts past forecast errors current forecasts of earnings are excessively optimistic for companies whose earnings were hard to predict in the past that is the least predictable companies have much larger positive forecast errors forecast actual relative to the most predictable companies abnormal returns are consistent with the current forecast errors that is stocks of the least predictable companies substantially underperform stocks of the most predictable companies adjustments for systematic risk firm size book to price ratio and industry factors do not eliminate the differential returns between least predictable and most predictable companies

risk and trade regimes another exploration an analysis of a small sample of countries shows that the higher the level of termsof trade risk that a nation faces in international markets the more likely it is to increase barriers the analysis also shows that the greater the availability of social insurance programs mounted by a nation s government the less likely it is to block free trade in comparison with the small open economies of western europe therefore developing countries may remain protectionist because they lack the resources to mount internal programs of transfer payments as a means of coping with risk from international markets

herding among security analysts the paper shows that the buy or sell recommendations of security analysts have a signi cant positive in uence on the recommendations of the next two analysts this in uence can be traced to short lived information in the most recent revisions in contrast the in uence of the prevailing consensus is not stronger if the consensus accurately forecasts subsequent stock price movements this indicates consensus herding consistent with models in which analysts herd based on little information the consensus also has a stronger in uence when market conditions are favorable the resulting poorer information aggregation could cause bull markets to be intrinsically more fragilea e g bikhchandani et al j political economy 100 5 1992 992 1026 2000 elsevier science s a all rights reserved jel classixcation g11 g14 g24

predicting forecast errors through joint observation of earnings and revenue forecasts abstract we propose a simple method to infer the forecast error associated with quarterly estimates of earnings and revenue before the firm announces realized earnings and revenue the method uses estimates of the profit margin implied by an analyst s forecasts of both earnings and revenue to identify forecasts that are likely to be optimistic or pessimistic the ability to anticipate forecast error permits a trading strategy that exploits the average market reaction following positive and negative earnings and revenue surprises

why is trade reform so popular in latin america a consumption based theory of trade policy preferences despite wavy national economies and a perception among observers that economic globalization is growing increasingly unpopular aggregate support for free trade remains quite high across latin america this finding is robust to the wording of survey questions and has been quite resilient through time even in the face of economic stagnation current theories of trade preferences including the widely applied heckscher ohlin model do not explain this trend instead the author proposes a theory of trade preferences based not on what citizens produce but on what they consume statistical analyses of different surveys including one conducted in fourteen latin american countries demonstrate that a consumption based approach best accounts for trade preferences across individuals and countries moreover the theory provides an explanation for the overall popularity of free trade in latin america citizens recognize and appreciate the lower price increased variety and higher quality of goods that have come in the wake of trade liberalization

a new methodology linking concentration dynamics to current and steady state profits examining korean industrial policy during take off abstract we model the dynamics of industrial structure and market power using korean manufacturing data during the take off period 1978 82 structure conduct performance scp methodologies have been criticized for using accounting data and because a few superior firms may have greater shares and greater profits both are argued to present possible spurious correlations between concentration and profits this paper follows earlier work which shows that market structure responds to observed accounting profits as if these were accurate indices of real profits and not as if leading firms are perceived to have unmatchable advantages the methodological contribution of this model is a new latent variable for steady state profits derived from the speed of structural adjustment long run profits are identified by the hypothesis that structural adjustment will be more rapid when industries are farther from steady state levels we analyze the long run profits latent variable finding strong support for this hypothesis the speed of adjustment is greater for positive and negative deviations from steady state structure we show that the profits and structural adjustment relationship is non monotone the scp criticisms above are based on spurious correlations which are monotone in profits and structure positing spurious correlations which are at the same time monotone in structure and non monotone in structural adjustment seems less plausible than accepting the scp results which are consistent with both our analysis also is new in that it is the first direct econometric analysis of korean industrial policy during its take off years we note that in korea unlike elsewhere industrial policy was hypothesized to lead to concentration and market power in the popular press and by professional economists ours is the first direct econometric analysis of this hypothesis and we find it supported

the life cycle of the u s tire industry 1 introduction a recent literature has emerged focusing on industry evolution or the dynamic patterns that industries and firms follow as they systematically evolve over time this literature is important because of the insights provided about how industries change why they change and the consequences of industrial change the year 1982 saw three fundamental contributions made to the research on the evolution of industry boyan jovanovic published the first formal model of industry evolution richard nelson and sidney winter presented their influential book on the causes and effects of this phenomenon and michael gort and steven klepper published their careful analysis of the stages of the product life cycle knowledge concerning industry dynamics and industry evolution has expanded since then despite this progress in the field of industry evolution considerable gaps remain for example we lack an adequate empirical understanding of the evolutionary process at the single industry level from the early to the late stages of its life cycle shakeouts have been identified in the literature as an integral component of this evolutionary process the sudden disappearance of large numbers of firms have been documented across a broad spectrum of industries such as steel airline carriers financial intermediaries automobiles and tires an important strand in the literature argues that the catalyst for these shakeouts is the introduction of a new dominant innovation confronted by a new technology introduced by a competitor the inability of other firms to adopt this new dominant technology presumably forces them out of the market jovanovic and macdonald 1994 made a pioneering and parsimonious contribution in this field of research by explaining patterns of number of firms output and prices of the u s tire industry despite the importance of their contribution we argue that their model does not adequately describe the key historic developments that have taken place in this or many other industries that faced a shakeout of producers 2 the domain of relevance of the jovanovic macdonald model is limited it assumes that one innovation followed by just one refinement is responsible for the nonmonotonicity in firm numbers this implies that the model is applicable only for those industries having experienced just two technologies in their entire history an initial low tech and a subsequent high tech phase most industries including the automobile tire industry that was the testing ground of jovanovic and macdonald have an ongoing history of significant improvements in product quality and productivity it seldom occurs that one innovation is dominant this is certainly true for the tire industry nelson 1987 in his study on the u s tire industry observed that there was no single technical breakthrough that unlocked the industry s potential for highspeed production nor was any individual or firm of overriding importance the advent of mass production was a cumulative process resulting from a vast number of successive small changes pp 331 2 italics added almost half a century ago reynolds 1938 p 463 described a similar process the great improvement in tire quality during the past 30 years is undoubtedly due to constant repetition of the cycle of invention and imitation we take a different approach than jovanovic and macdonald and explain the nonmonitonicity in firm numbers as resulting from gradual unit cost reduction over time leading to declining profit margins in the present paper we relate this cumulative process to the concept of learning by doing we will test the model using data of the american tire industry we do this to facilitate the comparison between our model and that of jovanovic and macdonald and because this industry is one of the few for which data are available for a long time period the process of learning by doing leading to decreasing marginal costs over time has an important impact on the number of firms in the industry

conflicts of interest and analyst behavior evidence from recent changes in regulation regulation fd made analysts less dependent on insider information and diminished analysts motives to inflate their forecasts the global research analyst settlement had an even bigger impact on analyst behavior the mean forecast bias declined significantly whereas the median forecast bias essentially disappeared these results are similar for all analysts

when does the bond price reaction to earnings announcements predict future stock returns abstract in this paper i show that the bond price reaction to earnings announcements has predictive power for post announcement stock returns and that this predictive ability is driven by the bonds of non investment grade firms i find that bonds predictive ability is more pronounced in firms that have a lower level of institutional shareholder ownership and whose bonds are more liquid this paper enhances our understanding of the relation between the stock and bond markets and complements the literature which documents whether and under what circumstances various accounting based measures and financial statement components predict post announcement stock returns

social protection around the world external insecurity state capacity and domestic political cleavages this article develops and tests a political model specifying the conditions under which external risk leads to the introduction of redistributive social policies and argues that external risk sharpens a domestic political cleavage over the design of institutions of social insurance workers in sectors facing high volatility of income will support the introduction of social policies characterized by broad levels of insurance coverage and high redistribution of costs across occupations whereas workers in low risk sectors will oppose redistributive social policies the strength of preexisting state institutions also affects policy preferences of various sectors in the presence of weak ineffective states that are unable to collect social insurance contributions from sectors that are net contributors to the system high risk sectors will find redistributive social policies unattractive the article tests predictions of the model using new measures of the level of social insurance coverage in more than 100 c

improving analysts negative earnings forecasts in contrast to positive earnings forecasts the negative earnings forecasts of security analysts are grossly optimistic we adjusted negative earnings forecasts downward by varying amounts and evaluated forecast performance according to 1 forecast accuracy relative to the consensus 2 the frequency of being closer to actual earnings than the consensus and 3 the frequency with which adjusted forecasts underestimate actual earnings thereby jeopardizing the analyst s relations with corporate managers relative forecast accuracy and the probability of beating the consensus are improved without an inordinate increase in the probability of underestimating earnings by adjusting negative forecasts downward by a small amount

did analyst forecast accuracy and dispersion improve after 2002 following the increase in regulation this article examines the accuracy and dispersion of analyst earnings forecasts from october 1993 to september 2013 the authors found an improvement in these forecast properties in the short run following various regulations in the early 2000s over the extended period however forecast accuracy significantly declined and dispersion significantly increased the results are robust to various sensitivity tests and indicate that these regulations did not collectively improve the information environment despite the reduction in analyst conflicts of interest the problem seems to be largely due to the quality of financial reports

security analysts career concerns and herding of earnings forecasts several theories of reputation and herding see e g scharfstein and stein 1990 suggest that herding among agents should vary with career concerns our goal in this paper is to document whether such a link exists in the labor market for security analysts specifically we look at the relationship between an analyst s job tenure a proxy for career concerns and various measures of stock earnings forecast performance we establish the following key results 1 older analysts are more likely to produce earnings forecasts of firms before younger ones 2 their forecasts also deviate more from the consensus forecast than their younger counterparts we argue that these results are consistent with some reputational models of herding we also establish a number of auxiliary findings regarding the relationship between forecast accuracy and frequency of forecast revisions with job tenure

attracting attention in a limited attention world exploring the causes and consequences of extreme positive earnings surprises we investigate why extreme positive earnings surprises occur and the consequences of these events we posit that managers know before analysts when extremely good earnings news is developing but can have incentives to allow the earnings news to surprise the market at the earnings announcement in particular managers can use an extreme positive earnings surprise to attract investor attention when they believe their stock is neglected and future performance is expected to be strong analysts who must allocate scarce resources across many firms can also be inattentive and miss signals that suggest good performance is going to be announced using various proxies for extreme positive earnings surprises management expectations for future performance and desire for attention and analyst neglect we find evidence that an extreme positive earnings surprise is a predictable event these findings are incremental to controlling for a firm s information environment earnings volatility and operating leverage finally we show that extreme positive earnings surprises are a successful method for attracting attention with significant increases in the number of institutional owners the number of analysts and trading volume during the subsequent three years this paper was accepted by mary barth accounting

inefficiency in analysts earnings forecasts systematic misreaction or systematic optimism a rational analysis of analyst behavior predicts that analysts immediately and without bias incorporate information into their forecasts several studies document analysts tendency to systematically underreact to information underreaction is inconsistent with rationality other studies indicate that analysts systematically overreact to new information or that they are systematically optimistic this study discriminates between these three hypotheses by examining the interaction between the nature of information and the type of reaction by analysts the evidence indicates that analysts underreact to negative information but overreact to positive information these results are consistent with systematic optimism in response to information the literature on financial analysts defines the phrase forecast inefficiency to mean forecasts that fail to accurately incorporate new information on a timely basis and or that are biased these forecasts have also been described as irrational or suboptimal prior studies report inefficiency in analysts forecasts finding that they are upwardly biased and inaccurately reflect available information some studies conclude from this that analysts underreact to information other studies conclude that analysts overreact if markets treat analysts forecasts as both rational and statistically optimal then inefficient forecasts could have important implications for the efficiency of pricing in securities markets in this paper we reexamine the apparent tendency of analysts to misinterpret earnings information the intent of this study is to discriminate between three hypotheses 1 that analysts systematically underreact to new earnings information 2 that analysts systematically overreact to new earnings information and 3 that analysts are systematically optimistic in their reactions for hypotheses 1 and 2 the direction of the misinterpretation i e underor overreaction is independent of the nature of the information received in contrast hypothesis 3 predicts that analysts are optimistic in interpreting

expectations management and stock returns we establish a link between firms managing investors performance expectations earnings announcement premiums and cyclical patterns i e seasonalities in returns firms that are more likely to manage expectations toward beatable levels predictably earn lower returns before and higher returns during their earnings announcements this pattern repeats across firms fiscal quarters suggesting firms manufacture positive surprises by negatively biasing investors expectations ahead of announcing earnings we corroborate these findings using non price based outcomes indicative of expectations management together our findings are consistent with the pressure for firms to meet earnings targets shaping the cross section of firms stock returns

simultaneous equations models of the structure performance paradigm abstract this paper is concerned with determining the dimension of the simultaneous equations model surrounding the basic profits concentration relationship a very general model is considered and then simplified using a simple test for exogeneity and it is concluded that the model is nonlinear in concentration and that simultaneous interaction occurs between profits and foreign competition variables

optimal oligopoly pricing and the threat of entry in earlier work we tested stochastic dynamic limit pricing using u s data we replicate these tests using canadian data the results are weak but consistent with the earlier tests along the way we deal with several methodological problems how does the new rational limit pricing relate to the test how might oligopoly influences be integrated into limit pricing how should existing concentration affect entrant behavior might factors which suppress industry profitability not ceteris paribus deter entry what might one do with correlated proxy variables should weak results be interpreted the same in a replication test as in a de novo test

entry and exit from manufacturing industries symmetry turbulence and simultaneity some empirical evidence from greek manufacturing industries 1982 1988 the interdependence between entry and exit of firms into manufacturing industries is the focus of this research when both entry and exit equations are estimated separately the results support the existence of strong symmetry in their determinants when however entry and exit are estimated within a simultaneous equation framework the empirical evidence does not offer sufficient grounds to support the notion that entry and exit are simultaneously linked instead it seems that they are two contemporaneously related processes which respond in like fashion to the structural characteristics found in particular industries their linked response is also extended to factors unaccounted for by the individual entry and exit formulations and this expresses itself in significant contemporaneous correlation between the entry and exit equation residuals the change in the identities of firms operating implied by the positive correlation between entry and exit may then be attributed to industry turbulent condition