how do migrants from latin america and the caribbean fare in the us labour market this paper discusses the causes of mass migration from latin america and the caribbean lac to the united states in recent decades and how these migrants have fared in us labour markets the evidence shows that lac migrants have higher unemployment rates and substantially lower wages than other immigrants and natives furthermore the relative wages of lac migrants have been declining sharply over the last 25 years the most significant factor explaining the latter is the lower and declining educational attainment of lac migrants relative to other immigrants and natives compounded by the rising rates of return to education in the us

return migration uncertainty and precautionary savings this paper presents a life cycle model where migrants determine re migration and consumption simultaneously in a stochastic environment whether precautionary savings of migrants are above or below those of natives is ambiguous in general the sign depends on the risk in host and home country labor markets and on the correlation of labor market shocks furthermore the effect of an uncertain environment on migration and re migration plans cannot be unambiguously signed for the general case it depends on the size of the wage differential as well as the relative risk the migrant exhibits in the two labor markets

language and the earnings of immigrants several studies most of them employing straightforward regression analysis have concluded that immigrants proficiency in the language of their adopted country is correlated with their productivity as measured by earnings two weaknesses of these studies are potential unobserved heterogeneity which could result in over estimated effects if overall ability is linked with language acquisition and potential measurement error in the language proficiency measures which would probably result in under estimation of language effects the present study which uses panel data for a 10 year period in germany yields evidence that the latter bias tends to be much larger than the former implying that language proficiency is far more important than suggested by the existing literature

strategic amnesty and credible immigration reform why do countries that impose employer sanctions to deter the illegal entry of foreign workers nevertheless grant amnesty to illegal immigrants in this article i provide a positive theory of amnesty provision in a model where the constrained optimal immigration reform involving the joint use of employer sanctions and border interdictions is time inconsistent in particular my framework demonstrates that host countries of immigration can enhance the credibility of their immigration reforms by binding their own hands and strategically granting a socially excessive amount of amnesty to illegal workers

liberalising the movement of natural persons a lost decade liberalisation of international trade in services through the movement of natural persons mode 4 remains one of the least negotiated issues of trade policy among the 144 members of the world trade organisation economists believe that there is a basic convergence of economic interest between the developed and the developing world for liberalising mode 4 yet the multilateral trading system has not facilitated greater worker mobility between the labour surplus and labour scarce countries is there any economic logic as to why cross border movements of workers have not followed the pattern predicted by international trade theory or are there strong socio political barriers that have come in the way of liberalising mode 4 these are some of the questions the paper attempts to answer the paper shows that the economic arguments against the free movement of natural persons are based on the narrow perspective of the welfare of domestic workers while ignoring the benefit it brings to the economy as a whole further non economic arguments miss the point that the movement of workers under mode 4 of gats is temporary in nature and so unlikely to have any lasting social and cultural spillovers the paper gives specific illustrations from the recent past where temporary import of workers from labour surplus countries has enabled both developed and developing countries sustain their economic growth it concludes by arguing that the environment for renegotiating wto commitments under this important sector of international trade in services is better than ever before even though the current world economic slowdown may delay actual negotiations for a while copyright 2004 blackwell publishing ltd

return migration the european experience labour immigration contributed strongly to europe s post war economic development in contrast to migration to north america or australia these movements of labour were always seen as temporary by sending and receiving countries and at least initially also by most migrants although many migrants stayed more permanently return migration is a highly relevant feature in practice its significant role and the underlying behavioural mechanisms are not well understood however it is therefore not too surprising that most policy measures taken in the 1970s and 1980s to encourage return migration failed the paper takes the view that much can be learned from recent european history temporary immigration schemes may be helpful to moderate illegal migration and to foster east west economic relationships given the tight policies in the european union short term migration seems to be the only channel to open the door slightly the paper reviews the european history of return migration and the policy regimes in important european labour migration receiving countries it also provides new empirical evidence on the determinants of return behaviour and successful return return propensities of migrants increase with the age at entry but decrease with the number of years of residence conditional on having decided to return however the remaining years in the country decrease with years of residence and keeping years of residence constant with entry age return incentives may cause dissatisfaction and reintegration problems in the home country the results support the view that economic benefits are the larger the earlier it is clear whether migration is temporary or permanent

the economics of forced migration abstract this article reviews the economics literature on the impacts of forced migration the literature is divided into two parts impacts on forced migrants and impacts on host communities studies exploring the impact of forced migration due to wwii suggest that the long term impact is often positive the literature for developing countries suggests that there are serious consequences of forced migration for those forced to migrate these consequences range from worse labour market outcomes to less consumption smoothing the impact on host communities seems to be mixed and there are winners and losers the article provides suggestions for future research

optimal taxation in models of endogenous growth we study the problem of optimal taxation in three infinite horizon representative agent endogenous growth models the first model is a convex model in which physical and human capital are perfectly symmetric our second model incorporates elastic labor supply through a lucas style technology analysis of these two models points out the danger of assuming that government expenditures are exogenous in our third model we include government expenditures as a productive input in capital formation showing that the limiting tax rate on capital is no longer zero in numerical simulations we find similar effects on growth and welfare in all three models

migrants and housing investments theory and evidence from nigeria the dominance of housing may reflect limitations in the menu of investment choices available to migrants in the country of origin in many developing countries individuals face relatively few savings opportunities where productive assets such as land farm assets are associated with high risks and or low rates of return housing investments offer unique advantages in that they are durable highly visible and associated with low risk and monitoring requirements however there are some important drawbacks associated with housing investments in particular where resale and rental markets for housing are not well developed migrants housing assets may be relatively illiquid and irreversible in the next section i provide some background on general patterns of investment behavior among migrants here the evidence on housing investments is discussed for a rich set of migrant sending and receiving countries in section iii i develop the conceptual framework for understanding migrants housing investment decisions section iv provides a description of the data sources section v outlines the empirical strategy in section vi i discuss the empirical findings section vii presents conclusions excerpt

the role of the family in immigrants labor market activity an evaluation of alternative explanations comment most research on the labor market outcomes of immigrants has studied the behavior of individuals focusing primarily on the wage assimilation process or the excess returns to experience which immigrants obtain in their destination country s labor market e g barry r chiswick 1978 george j borjas 1985 recently however attention has been directed to analyzing immigrant labor market outcomes in a family context an approach which combines information about an individual s own labor market opportunities and the family context in which labor market decisions take place in a previously published paper in this review michael baker and dwayne benjamin 1997 evaluate alternative explanations for the observed labor supply patterns of canadian immigrants in the 1986 1991 period specifically when immigrant husbands arrive in canada they typically work less than comparable natives however immigrant wives work more than natives other things equal with assimilation the labor supply of immigrant husbands eventually catches up to that of natives while immigrant wives labor supply falls relative to comparable natives and is ultimately overtaken by that of natives the authors take these patterns to be most consistent with a family investment model in this scenario upon arrival husbands invest in their human capital while wives work to provide the family with liquidity during this investment period with increased time in canada husbands labor supply increases rapidly due to their growing skills in the canadian labor market while wives labor supply falls off in part because they originally took dead end jobs upon arrival in order to finance their husbands investments in human capital interestingly while most of the findings reported by baker and benjamin are consistent with the family investment model their estimated wage equations are not although they do not comment on this in discussing the appropriateness of the family investment model specifically they find similar rates of wage assimilation for husbands and wives this finding suggests roughly equal propensities to invest in one s own human capital for both groups this is contrary to the family investment hypothesis and does not match their story of dead end jobs for wives and large human capital investments of their husbands an alternative possible explanation for the patterns observed by baker and benjamin involves a simple price model in which the observed labor supply patterns reflect laborsupply responses to each spouse s wages for example the initially high but eventually falling level of wives labor supply relative to comparable natives could be a response to their husbands initially low but rising wages while this reasoning like the family investment model is broadly consistent with the data the authors conclude that the simple price model cannot be the entire explanation since in order to explain the full labor supply patterns of immigrants it would require unrealistically high labor supply elasticities and further that the assimilation patterns noted above remain even when wages of husband and wife are controlled blau school of industrial and labor relations cornell university 265 ives hall ithaca ny 14853 and nber and cesifo kahn school of industrial and labor relations cornell university 264 ives hall ithaca ny 14853 and cesifo moriarty school of industrial and labor relations cornell university ilr graduate student mailboxes ives hall ithaca ny 14853 souza faculdade de economia administracao e contabilidade university of sao paulo avenida professor luciano gualberto 908 cidade universitaria predio fea 1 sao paulo sp 05508 brazil the authors thank three anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions portions of this paper were written while blau and kahn were visiting scholars at the russell sage foundation to which they are grateful for research support

social networks and the dynamics of labour market outcomes evidence from refugees resettled in the u s recent theoretical work suggests that social networks may play an important role in the dynamics of employment and wages across groups of individuals this paper provides empirical evidence of job information flows within social networks and the non linear relationship between social network size and labor market outcomes an extended version of the model developed by calvo armengol and jackson 2004 shows that competition can exist between network members for job referrals and investigates the dynamics between the size of a social network the tenure of network members and labor market outcomes the predictions of the model are tested empirically using a unique data set of refugees resettled in the u s from 2001 2005 the empirical strategy exploits the special institutional environment of refugee resettlement i find that a one standard deviation increase in the number of network members who have arrived in the u s one year ago lowers the probability of employment by 4 9 and the average hourly wage by 70 conversely as predicted by the model more tenured network members improve labor market outcomes for recently arrived refugees

the decision to work by married immigrant women using 1980 census data the authors analyze the labor force participation of married immigrant asian women in the united states by country of origin compared with that of married immigrant women from europe and canada the results suggest the existence of a family investment strategy evidence from both across groups and within groups indicates that a womans decision to work is affected by whether she has a husband who invests in skills specific to the u s labor market and also by the extent of that investment such a family response may help offset the low earnings of immigrant men who initially lack skills for which there is a demand in the american labor market excerpt

catastrophic natural disasters and economic growth this paper examines the short and long run average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies the counterfactual of the cases studied is assessed by constructing synthetic control groups taking advantage of the fact that the timing of large sudden natural disasters is an exogenous event it is found that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output both in the short and long run however this result appears in two events where radical political revolutions followed the natural disasters once these political changes are controlled for even extremely large disasters do not display any significant effect on economic growth it is also found that smaller but still very large natural disasters have no discernible effect on output

partial land rights and agricultural outcomes evidence from thailand to disentangle the issue concerning which dimensions of land rights among security tradability and pledgeability affect agricultural outcomes this paper exploits a unique partial land rights entitlement program in thailand that guarantees only security allows a limited access to credit and prohibits any land sale based on an instrumental variables strategy i find that the entitlement increases 1 second rice but not major rice productivity 2 land use intensity and 3 land related investment and leads to 4 better soil quality this suggests that the security dimension alone can play an important role in improving farm activities

occupational transition and country of origin effects in the early stage occupational assimilation of immigrants some evidence from australia we examine the occupational attainment of recent immigrants at 2 years post migration in order to study their early stage assimilation into the labour market in australia human capital endowments and country of origin effects are examined for six occupational groups we also study transitions across occupations from source to host country the empirical approach utilizes the ordered generalized extreme value ogev model which embodies differing utility functions across occupational outcomes as well as accounting for any ordering in these outcomes the results suggest that the transferability of knowledge and skills is affected by cultural and social backgrounds and that non western immigrants are disproportionately channelled into inferior jobs post migration the investigation of the country of origin effect on the skilled migrants occupational transition process is especially apt in the context of skill shortages in many host countries

a comparative analysis of the nativity wealth gap this paper investigates the source of the gap in the relative wealth posi tion of immigrant households residing in australia germany and the united states our results indicate that in germany and the united states wealth difierentials are largely the result of disparity in the educational attainment and demographic composition of the native and immigrant populations while income difierentials are relatively unimportant in understanding the nativity wealth gap in contrast the relatively small wealth gap between australian and foreign born households exists because immigrants to australia do not translate their relative educational and demographic advantage into a wealth advantage on balance our results point to substantial cross national disparity in the economic well being of immigrant and native families which is largely consistent with domestic labor markets and the selection policies used to shape the nature of the immigration ow

migration unemployment and discrimination abstract this paper uses a dynamic efficiency wage model to analyze the consequences of immigration for a small country when there is discrimination against immigrants in a dual labor market with unemployment discrimination is of the type equal pay for equal work but unequal work which is characteristic of economies with guest worker systems the model exhibits three regimes for rising immigration levels immigration is most beneficial for natives in the intermediate regime an analysis of regime switches shows that changes attributable to globalization and technical progress are consistent with growing opposition to immigration

migrants savings the probability of return migration and migrants performance this paper highlights a difference between migrants and the native born namely a positive probability of return migration the analysis demonstrates that this probability results in migrants saving more than comparable native born this differential may explain why even if all workers are perfectly homogeneous in skills migrants often outperform the native born in the receiving economy excerpt

the effects of cash assistance on refugee outcomes abstract the united states receives tens of thousands of refugees per year many of whom arrive with few resources the federal refugee resettlement program aims to rapidly move refugees into employment and self sufficiency this causes refugees to undergo a search and matching process upon arrival that may be affected by cash assistance generosity this paper exploits variation in cash benefit levels for welfare programs available to refugees after resettlement to identify the effects of welfare generosity on long term labor market outcomes i find that an additional 100 in tanf maximum monthly benefits is associated with a 5 8 increase in wages but no significant change in the probability of employment the effects are the largest among the highly educated

the imf and precautionary lending an empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the flexible credit line abstract this paper provides an empirical evaluation of the flexible credit line fcl the imf s prime precautionary lending instrument since 2009 to which so far only mexico colombia and poland have subscribed we consider both questions of selectivity and effectiveness first which variables explain the three countries participation in fcl arrangements and second to which extent has the fcl delivered on its promise of boosting market confidence in its respective users based on a probit analysis we show that fcl selectivity can be explained by both demand and supply side factors the probability of participation in the fcl was greater in countries that experienced larger prior exchange market pressures that had lower bond spreads and inflation that accounted for higher shares in us exports and that exhibited a higher propensity of making political concessions to the us using a synthetic control approach we find evidence for some but generally limited beneficial effects on sovereign bond spreads and gross capital inflows into the three fcl countries overall our results suggest that any economic stigma that may prevent eligible countries from entering into an fcl arrangement is unwarranted conversely the apparent link of fcl participation with us interests is not conducive to overcoming political stigma

does electoral accountability affect economic policy choices evidence from gubernatorial term limits this paper analyzes the behavior of u s governors from 1950 to 1986 to investigate a reputation building model of political behavior we argue that differences in the behavior of governors who face a binding term limit and those who are able to run again provides a source of variation in discount rates that can be used to test a political agency model we find evidence that taxes spending and other policy instruments respond to a binding term limit if a democrat is in office the result is a fiscal cycle in term limit states which lowers state income when the term limit binds

wealth inequality and asset pricing in an arrow debreu exchange economy with identical agents except for their initial endowment we examine how wealth inequality affects the equilibrium level of the equity premium and the risk free rate we first show that wealth inequality raises the equity premium if and only if the inverse of absolute risk aversion is concave in wealth we then show that the equilibrium risk free rate is reduced by wealth inequality if the inverse of the coefficient of absolute prudence is concave we also prove that the combination of a small uninsurable background risk with wealth inequality biases asset pricing towards a larger equity premium and a smaller risk free rate the model of the representative consumer a la lucas 1978 failed to explain observed security prices more specifically as first stated by mehra and prescott 1985 the model predicts an equity premium that is too low and a risk free rate that is too high given the observed low variability of consumption growth a recent strand of the literature with papers by constantinides and duffie 1996 heaton and lucas 1996 and krusell and smith 1997 for example explores whether incomplete asset markets and heterogeneity among consumers can explain these puzzles constantinides and duffie 1996 in particular conclude that it is at least in principle possible to generate larger equity premia when such ingredients are introduced the aim of this paper is not to provide another explanation of the puzzles but rather to better understand the relationship between asset prices the heterogeneity of consumers wealth and the market incompleteness when markets are complete heterogeneous consumers are able to equalize their marginal rates of substitution across states and across time as shown by constantinides 1982 this implies that the equilibrium of the heterogeneous consumer economy can be duplicated by the equilibrium in a lucas economy with a representative agent this means that taking account of the heterogeneity in the population alone cannot explain why the representative agent model is rejected hansen and singleton 1982 this does not mean however that the distribution of wealth in the population for example has no effect on asset prices in general in order to understand this consider the departure from an egalitarian distribution of wealth by introducing a mean preserving transfer of endowment under decreasing absolute risk aversion poorer agents will be more risk averse whereas wealthier people will be less risk averse there is no reason a priori for that the group s attitude towards risk be unaffected by this transfer we first show that if absolute risk tolerance i e the inverse of the arrow pratt coefficient of absolute risk aversion is concave then the risk aversion of the agent with the mean wealth will be smaller than the risk aversion of the representative agent thus if an outside observer overlooks wealth inequality he consequently underestimates the aversion to risk of society this leads to

myth and reality of flat tax reform micro estimates of tax evasion response and welfare effects in russia we examine the effects of russia s 2001 flat rate income tax reform on consumption income and tax evasion we use the gap between household expenditures and reported earnings as a proxy for tax e

the value of u s labor market experience in the home country the case of puerto rican return migrants many immigrants to the united states and other industrialized economies eventually return to their home country more than one million foreign born persons left the united states between 1960 and 1970 1 research has documented return migration to israel italy ireland mexico and puerto rico as well as the return of thousands of guest workers from industrialized european economies in the mid seventies 2 however little is known about how the migration experience shapes the earnings profiles of returnees and how the economic standing of returnees compares to that of stayers in the home labor market in this article i analyze the transferability of human capital accumulated abroad by return migrants and the economic assimilation process of returnees i investigate if return migrants can capitalize at home on the years of labor market experience accumulated abroad i also examine whether return migrants assimilate that is if their earnings increase with time spent in the home labor market to evaluate how returnees fare in the home labor market the earnings of returnees are compared to the earnings of stayers one of the findings from the literature of immigration to the united states and other industrialized economies is that immigrants lose human capital on crossing national borders 3 it has also been noted that the earnings of immigrants grow with time spent in the host labor market suggesting that immigrants undergo a process of assimilation 4 most of the research on international return migrants is qualitative in nature and the small sample sizes caution about generalizations a large amount of this research has focused on rural communities the primary concern in the return migration literature has been the effect on local economic development 5

comparing earnings profiles in urban areas of an ldc rural to urban migrants vs native workers abstract we use tanzanian data to test a recently proposed hypothesis that rural to urban migrants have an incentive to supply greater work effort than native urban workers because of the migrants positive probability of returning to the low wage rural areas we treat the choice between public and private sector employment as endogenous and for theoretical and empirical reasons distinguish migrants with access to rural land from those without access our results show that migrants in both sectors face lower initial wage offers than native urban workers but the wage gap is eliminated within a decade or less and thereafter migrants surpass the wage offers of native workers

temporary and permanent migration with and without an immobile factor abstract this paper develops two two country overlapping generations models one with and one without an immobile factor to study temporary and permanent migration temporary migration is shown to be equivalent to international lending and borrowing one strong result found in the literature that if natives of each country are homogeneous permanent migration leads to the migration of the entire population of the impatient country in the long run is overturned welfare effects of migration are analyzed

budget spillovers and fiscal policy interdependence evidence from the states abstract this paper formalizes and tests the notion that states expenditures depend on the spending of similarly situated states we find that even after allowing for fixed state effects year effects and common random shocks among neighbors a state government s level of per capita expenditure is positively and significantly affected by the expenditure levels of its neighbors ceteris paribus a one dollar increase in a state s neighbors expenditures increases its own expenditure by over 70 cents

do migrants really save more understanding the impact of remittances on savings in rural china abstract this article studies the impact of remittances on the savings behaviour of rural households in china using a primary survey undertaken by the authors in 2006 allowing for endogeneity and left censoring of remittances we find that the marginal propensity to save out of remittances is well below half of that out of other sources of incomes moreover we find no evidence of any direct effect of remittances on either capital input or gross output of farm production these findings are robust with respect to alternative definition of savings and are in line with recent studies which conclude that remittances are largely used for consumption purposes by rural chinese households

discretionary tax changes and the macroeconomy new narrative evidence from the united kingdom abstract this paper provides new estimates of the macroeconomic effects of tax changes using a new narrative dataset for the united kingdom identification is achieved by isolating exogenous tax policy changes using the romer and romer narrative strategy i find that a 1 percent cut in taxes increases gdp by 0 6 percent on impact and 2 5 percent over three years the findings are remarkably similar to romer and romer narrative estimates for the united states reinforcing the view that tax changes have powerful and persistent effects exogenous tax changes are also shown to have contributed to important episodes in the uk business cycle jel e23 e32 e62 h20 h61

return migration investment in children and intergenerational mobility comparing sons of foreign and native born fathers this paper studies parental investment in education and intergenerational earnings mobility for father son pairs with native and foreign born fathers we illustrate within a simple model that for immigrants investment in their children is related to their return migration probability in our empirical analysis we include a measure for return probabilities based on repeated information about migrants return intentions our results suggest that educational investments in the son are positively associated with a higher probability of a permanent migration of the father we also find that the son s permanent wages are positively associated with the probability of the father s permanent migration

the debt tax shield in general equilibrium abstract we study the general equilibrium effects of the corporate debt tax shield in an endowment economy with a redistributive tax system that taxes firm profits and household income and redistributes tax revenues in an attempt to harmonize households lifetime consumption opportunities in general equilibrium the debt tax shield not only affects corporate capital structure and valuation but also causes poorer households to consume more and save less at a younger age without the debt tax shield the same welfare improvements for poorer households are achievable with significantly lower tax rates

remittances and savings from international migration theory and evidence using a matched sample abstract the central question of this paper concerns the implications of remittance flows for migrants and their origin households in the country of origin this paper represents the first attempt to present a disaggregated view of international remittance flows using a matched sample of international migrants and their origin families i investigate two types of remittances transfers to the home family and savings in the country of origin the empirical evidence provides support for the altruistic model of transfer behavior wealthier origin families tend to receive lower transfers other things being equal however remittances sent to finance origin country investments are positively associated with origin household wealth the estimation strategy addresses two common problems that arise in investigating remittance behavior omitted variable bias and the measurement of origin household resources

living in limbo economic and social costs for refugees our paper tests the hypothesis that living in limbo could have negative consequences for the socio economic integration of refugees we define limbo as a protracted period when asylum seekers are waiting for the decision concerning their permanent refugee status relying on the french survey of migrants france s longitudinal survey of migrants elipa we measure integration by labour market participation fluency in french finding new french friends and studying to account for the endogeneity of limbo we instrument it with the administrative backlog we find that living longer in limbo during the asylum seeking period slows down future integration of refugees but results differ with respect to gender and educational attainment while having lived longer in limbo slows down most aspects of socio economic integration for refugees with no degree or a high school degree those with a bachelor s degree do not experience negative effects male refugees who had lived longer in limbo have a lower likelihood of being employed and studying in france while similar females make fewer french friends

do high income or low income immigrants leave faster we estimate the impact of the income earned in the host country on return migration of labor migrants from developing countries we use a three state correlated competing risks model to account for the strong dependence of labor market status and the income earned our analysis is based on administrative panel data of recent labor immigrants from developing countries to the netherlands the empirical results show that intensities of return migration are u shaped with respect to migrants income implying a higher intensity in low and high income groups indeed the lowest income group has the highest probability of return we also find that ignoring the interdependence of labor market status and the income earned leads to an overestimating the income effect on departure keywords migration dynamics labor market transitions competing risks immigrant assimilation

can a brain drain be good for growth in the source economy this paper analyzes the interaction between income distribution human capital accumulation and migration it shows that when migration is not a certainty a brain drain may increase average productivity and equality in the source economy even though average productivity is a positive function of past average levels of human capital in an economy it is also shown how the temporary possibility of emigration may permanently increase the average level of productivity of an economy

immigrants and human capital investment why do immigrants invest more in human capital than the native born and how do investment patterns vary by type of immigrant summarizing our previous research we approach this question theoretically and empirically excerpt

the top 1 percent in international and historical perspective world top incomes database at http topincomes parisschoolofeconomics eu and has represented a challenge to the economics profession stories based on the and has represented a challenge to the economics profession stories based on the supply and demand for skills are not enough to explain the extreme top tail of supply and demand for skills are not enough to explain the extreme top tail of the earnings distribution nor is it enough to look only at earned incomes different the earnings distribution nor is it enough to look only at earned incomes different approaches are necessary to explain what has happened in the united states over approaches are necessary to explain what has happened in the united states over the past century and also to explain the differing experience in other high income the past century and also to explain the differing experience in other high income countries over recent decades we begin with the international comparison in the countries over recent decades we begin with the international comparison in the fi rst section and then turn to the causes and implications of the evolution of top fi rst section and then turn to the causes and implications of the evolution of top income shares income shares

the optimal migration duration and activity choice after re migration if migrants return to their origin countries two questions arise which are of immediate economic interest for both immigration and emigration country what determines their optimal migration duration and what are the activities migrants choose after a return little research has been devoted to these two issues this paper utilises a unique survey data set which records activities of returned migrants we first illustrate the activities of immigrants after returning we show that more than half of the returning migrants are economically active after return and most of them engage in entrepreneurial activities we then develop a model where migrants decide simultaneously about the optimal migration duration and their after return activities guided by this model we specify and estimate an empirical model where the after return activity and the optimal migration duration are simultaneously chosen

career duration in the nhl pushing and pulling on europeans abstractusing a panel of national hockey league players from 2000 through 2013 we analyse the determinants of career length in the league in our analysis we include both performance variables and nationality of origin to determine their importance in determining career length we find that european born players have shorter careers than north american born players holding performance constant and russian born players have even shorter careers than other europeans we further find that russian born players have even shorter careers than other players after the 2005 lockout these shorter careers are consistent with both exit discrimination against european and russian players who are pushed out of the league as well as voluntary exit by european and russian players who are pulled out of the league due to opportunities in their home countries

the effect of changes in the u s wage structure on recent immigrants earnings abstract since recent immigrants tend to earn less than natives their relative earnings have been adversely affected by an increase in the return to labor market skills over the past three decades using longitudinal social security records matched to cross sections of the sipp and cps i estimate the return to skills rose by 41 between 1980 and 1997 this reduced the relative earnings of immigrants who arrived in the 1980s and early 1990s by 10 to 15 percentage points examining solely the earnings of recent immigrants may lead to an overly pessimistic picture of their actual labor market skills

assimilation changes in cohort quality and the earnings of immigrants this paper reexamines the empirical basis for two facts that seem to be found in most cross section studies of immigrant earnings 1 the earnings of immigrants grow rapidly as they assimilate into the united states and 2 this rapid growth leads to many immigrants overtaking the earnings of the natives within 10 15 years after immigration using the 1970 and 1980 u s censuses this paper studies the earnings growth experienced by specific immigrant cohorts during the period 1970 80 it is found that within cohort growth is significantly smaller than the growth predicted by cross section regressions for most immigrant groups this differential is consistent with the hypothesis that there has been a secular decline in the quality of immigrants admitted to the united states

immigrant earnings assimilation estimates from longitudinal data analysis of longitudinal data for immigrants presents a more pessimistic portrait of immigrants economic success first the rate of growth of immigrant earnings was overstated in census based studies second the worsening of immigrant earnings for more recent arrival cohorts is deeper than previously suggested against these two negative findings one must keep in mind an important caveat the steeper cohort decline in earnings may be a sign of greater human capital investment by more recent immigrants longitudinal data suggest a strong degree of earnings convergence immigrants who start at lower earnings quickly make up a large part of the deficit relative to their immigrant counterparts

the probability of return migration migrants work effort and migrants performance abstract this paper demonstrates that differences in earnings between migrants and the native population may reflect differences in incentives rather than differences in characteristics the analysis indicates that in the presence of a positive probability of return migration migrants work effort is higher than that of comparable native born workers this differential may explain why even if all workers are perfectly homogeneous in skills migrants often outperform the native born workers in the receiving economy

is economics useful for public policy economists have always played an important role in major public policy debates even so i believe that the role of economists in these public policy discussions has often been misguided because it has typically relied upon best practices stated in the form of general guidelines or even universal principles however best practices are not best if the specific situation does not conform with the assumptions that underlie the advice so my first conclusion is a cautionary and negative one specific circumstances differ so profoundly across individuals firms markets countries and time that most any attempt to define best practices that apply in all circumstances will lead to profoundly misleading public policy recommendations however even if economics cannot identify the truth it can often identify a truth so my second conclusion is a more positive one economists should continue to develop multiple theories that inform public policies but we should also focus our efforts on identifying and testing the critical assumptions that drive the results of these theories recognizing that the validity of any assumptions will depend intimately on specific circumstances i illustrate these two main conclusions with specific examples from my own work i conclude with some best practices recommendations of my own recognizing the obvious irony of such an effort

the economics of temporary migrations many migrations are temporary a fact that has often been ignored in the economic literature on migration such omission may be serious in that expected migration temporariness can impart a distinct dynamic element to immigrants economic behavior generating possible consequences for nonmigrants in both home and host countries in this paper we provide a thorough examination of the various aspects of temporary migrations that matter for the analysis of economic phenomena we demonstrate the extent of temporary migrations in population movements we show how temporariness can affect the various economic choices and how better data have improved both the measurement of nonpermanent migrations and the analyses of various aspects of migrant behavior we propose a general theoretical framework for modeling temporary migration decisions based on which we outline the various motives for temporariness while simultaneously reviewing related literature and available data sources we discuss the possible consequences of migration temporariness for nonmigrants in both home and host countries jel f22 f24 j11 j61 k37 o15

self selection and the earnings of immigrants this paper analyzes the way in which the earnings of the immigrant population may be expected to differ from the earnings of the native population because of the endogeneity of the decision to migrate the empirical study shows that differences in the u s earnings of immigrants with the same measured skills but from different home countries are attributable to variations in political and economic conditions in the countries of origin at the time of migration excerpt

top incomes in the long run of history a recent literature has constructed top income shares time series over the long run for more than twenty countries using income tax statistics top incomes represent a small share of the population but a very significant share of total income and total taxes paid hence aggregate economic growth per capita and gini inequality indexes are sensitive to excluding or including top incomes we discuss the estimation methods and issues that arise when constructing top income share series including income definition and comparability over time and across countries tax avoidance and tax evasion we provide a summary of the key empirical findings most countries experience a dramatic drop in top income shares in the first part of the twentieth century in general due to shocks to top capital incomes during the wars and depression shocks top income shares do not recover in the immediate postwar decades however over the last thirty years top income shares have increased substantially in english speaking countries and in india and china but not in continental european countries or japan this increase is due in part to an unprecedented surge in top wage incomes as a result wage income comprises a larger fraction of top incomes than in the past finally we discuss the theoretical and empirical models that have been proposed to account for the facts and the main questions that remain open

the resource curse exorcised evidence from a panel of countries abstract this paper evaluates the impact of major natural resource discoveries since 1950 on gdp per capita using panel fixed effects estimation and resource discoveries in countries that were not previously resource rich as a plausibly exogenous source of variation i find a positive effect on gdp per capita levels following resource exploitation that persists in the long term results vary significantly between oecd and non oecd treatment countries with effects concentrated within the non oecd group i further test gdp effects with synthetic control analysis on each individual treated country yielding results consistent with the average effects found with the fixed effects model

are refugees different from economic immigrants some empirical evidence on the heterogeneity of immigrant groups in the united states this paper analyzes how the implicit difference in time horizons between refugees and economic immigrants affects subsequent human capital investments and wage assimilation the analysis uses the 1980 and 1990 integrated public use samples of the census to study labor market outcomes of immigrants who arrived in the united states from 1975 to 1980 i find that in 1980 refugee immigrants in this cohort earned 6 less and worked 14 fewer hours than economic immigrants both had approximately the same level of english skills the two immigrant groups had made substantial gains by 1990 however refugees had made greater gains in fact the labor market outcomes of refugee immigrants surpassed those of economic immigrants in 1990 refugees from the 1975 1980 arrival cohort earned 20 more worked 4 more hours and improved their english skills by 11 relative to economic immigrants the higher rates of human capital accumulation for refugee immigrants contribute to these findings

immigration from the former soviet union to israel who is coming when abstract average education of new immigrants from the former soviet union in israel declined during the 1990s we suggest that this is because the returns to investment in israeli human capital increase in the amount of imported human capital thus the more educated invest more and therefore have an incentive to spend a longer share of their working life in israel this translates into early migration using data from the 1995 israeli census and the 1995 1998 samples of the israeli labor force survey we test our hypothesis and find that being high skilled initiates early migration only for migrants participating in the labor market

are foreign it workers cheaper u s visa policies and compensation of information technology professionals the use of h 1b and other work visas to hire foreign information technology it professionals in the united states has attracted significant controversy and policy debates on one hand hiring high skill foreign it professionals on work visas can be advantageous for u s firms and the overall economy on the other hand high skill immigration can adversely impact the wages of foreign and american it professionals this study uses data on skills and compensation of more than 50 000 it professionals in the united states over the period 2000 2005 to study patterns in compensation of foreign and american it professionals to inform these debates contrary to the popular belief that foreign workers are a cheap source of labor for u s firms we find that after controlling for their human capital attributes foreign it professionals those without u s citizenship and those with h 1b or other work visas earn a salary premium when compared with it professionals with u s citizenship the salary premiums for non u s citizens and for those on work visas fluctuate in response to supply shocks created by the annual caps on new h 1b visas setting lower and fully utilized annual caps results in higher salary premiums for non u s citizens and those with work visas we discuss implications of this study for crafting informed visa and immigration related policies by the u s government for staffing practices of firms and for human capital investments by it professionals

economic consequences of forced displacement abstractover 42 million people worldwide have been forcibly displaced from their communities though little is known about the impact of this movement on livelihoods i use a panel data set and exploit a geographic discontinuity to explore the effects of displacement in uganda i find that displaced households experience a significant initial decrease in consumption two years after households returned home displaced households still lag behind however households in the top quartiles of pre displacement assets have recovered some of their consumption though with significantly reduced education and wealth levels there is likely little or no recovery for the poorest households

the economics of immigration this literature review concerns the impact of immigration on the economy of the host country focusing on the experience of the united states the emphasis is on the period from the 1970s to the 1990s the author shows that research earlier in this period generally concluded that the economic effects of immigration were positive but that more recent research on later migrations have generally concluded that immigration may be having an adverse effect on the earnings of native unskilled workers and be placing an increased burden on welfare programs the importance of such economic analysis for the formulation of appropriate migration policies is stressed

investor sophistication and capital income inequality abstract capital income inequality is large and growing fast accounting for a significant portion of total income inequality we study its growth in a general equilibrium portfolio choice model with endogenous information acquisition and heterogeneity across household sophistication and asset riskiness the model implies capital income inequality that grows with aggregate information technology investors differentially adjust both the size and the composition of their portfolios as unsophisticated investors retrench from trading risky securities and shift their portfolios to safer assets technological progress also reduces aggregate returns and increases the volume of transactions features that are consistent with recent u s data

the impact of labour market dynamics on the return migration of immigrants using administrative panel data on the entire population of new labour immigrants to the netherlands we estimate the effects of individual labour market spells on immigration durations using the timing of events method the model allows for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across migration unemployment and employment processes we find that unemployment spells increase return probabilities for all immigrant groups while re employment spells typically delay returns

investment opportunities in the source country and temporary migration this paper examines how attractive investment opportunities available to temporary migrants in their country of origin aect their saving behavior and the optimal duration of stay abroad the model predicts an inverse u shaped relationship between migration duration and the expected rate of return on repatriated savings a higher rate provides an incentive to go back earlier and consume less abroad while it can also trigger emigration aimed at generating the savings required for investment after return at a more general level the paper illustrates how the behavior of temporary migrants re ects the interaction between their preferences and the opportunities available in the labor and capital markets of both countries

the volatility effect of diaspora s location remittances can transmit volatility from host to home countries for some common patterns of diaspora s geographical distribution in a migration portfolio model the overall risk of volatility of any set of diaspora location is decomposed into a contagion and a concentration risks a diaspora located in more volatile destinations induces a higher contagion risk while a diaspora located in few destination countries increases the concentration risk a series of estimations on a large panel of developing countries over 1995 2015 provide evidence for these two risks estimation of a structural model confirms that the geography of diaspora has an indirect impact on the origin country s aggregate instability through remittances

new evidence on the economic progress of foreign born men in the 1970s and 1980s this study examines the economic progress of foreign born men in the united states europeans entered the united states with relatively high wages and earned wages comparable to natives over their life course japanese korean and chinese men entered with lower wages but quickly caught up with u s born workers mexicans and central americans entered with low wages and the wage gap between themselves and u s born workers has not shrunk disparities in completed years of education and whether education was received in the united states can explain a large share of the differences in the level of wages for immigrants from some countries it is found that more highly educated men assimilate more quickly the rate of economic progress has not improved for more recent arrivals from any country but this is most problematic among mexicans and central americans because of their relatively low rates of wage growth excerpt

tax bases tax rates and the elasticity of reported income abstract tax reforms usually change both tax rates and tax bases using a panel of income tax returns spanning the two major u s tax reforms of the 1980s and a number of smaller tax law changes i find that the elasticity of income reported on personal income tax returns depends on the available deductions this highlights that this key behavioral elasticity is not an immutable parameter but rather that it can be to some extent controlled by policy makers one implication is that base broadening reduces the marginal efficiency cost of taxation the results are very similar for all income categories indicating that the rich are more responsive to tax rates because tax rules that apply to them are different their tax base is narrower the point estimates indicate that the tax reform act of 1986 reduced the marginal cost of collecting a dollar of tax revenue with roughly half of this reduction due to the base broadening and the other half due to the tax rate reduction as a by product the analysis in this paper offers a reconciliation of disparate estimates obtained by previous studies of the tax responsiveness of income

achieving the dream the effect of irca on immigrant youth postsecondary educational access this paper contributes to the existing literature on the effect of legal status on educational access among immigrant youth in the united states the immigration reform and control act irca of 1986 granted amnesty to undocumented immigrants who entered the united states before 1982 using a difference in differences framework i analyze the effect of this large amnesty program on immigrant youth s postsecondary educational access my main finding shows that immigrant youths who were granted amnesty under irca are more likely to enroll in postsecondary education

income inequality and asset prices under redistributive taxation abstract our simple model features agents heterogeneous in skill and risk aversion incomplete financial markets and redistributive taxation in equilibrium agents become entrepreneurs if their skill is sufficiently high or risk aversion sufficiently low under heavier taxation entrepreneurs are more skilled and less risk averse on average through these selection effects the tax rate is positively related to aggregate productivity and negatively related to the equity risk premium both income inequality and stock prices initially increase but eventually decrease with the tax rate investment risk stock market participation and skill heterogeneity all contribute to inequality cross country empirical evidence supports the model s predictions

how immigrants fare across the earnings distribution in australia and the united states this paper investigates determinants of the earnings distribution for native born workers and immigrant workers in two countries the authors using data from the 2000 u s census and 2001 australian census employ a methodology quantile regression that facilitates measurement of the native born immigrant earnings differential and the partial effect of explanatory variables such as schooling and experience at each decile of the earnings distribution they find evidence that schooling and labor market experience had stronger earnings effects at higher deciles the native immigrant earnings gap varied by decile and in particular increased in the united states at higher deciles the results suggest that in the united states minimum wages compressed earnings at low deciles whereas in australia the minimum administered wage system compressed earnings across the entire distribution a pattern of higher earnings for immigrants than for the native born at the lowest earnings decile in australia may reflect favorable selectivity in migration

is the new immigration really so bad this article reviews the recent evidence on us immigration focusing on two key questions 1 does immigration reduce the labour market opportunities of less skilled natives 2 have immigrants who arrived after the 1965 immigration reform act been successfully assimilated overall evidence that immigrants have harmed the opportunities of less educated natives is scant on the question of assimilation the success of the us born children of immigrants is a key yardstick by this metric post 1965 immigrants are doing reasonably well even children of the least educated immigrant origin groups have closed most of the education gap with the children of natives

migrants intentions to return home and capital transfers a study of tongans and samoans in australia this article examines the attributes of migrants from the pacific island states of tonga and samoa living in australia to assess the extent to which return migrants could contribute to the human and physical capital stock of the migrant sending countries it also examines the impact of intention to return on remittances and asset accumulation the study finds that very few migrants plan to return home and very little evidence that those who plan to return embody significant human capital education experience and skills intention to return may be important nevertheless since those who plan to return remit significantly more than those that do not and also accumulate far more physical capital at home than those that do not intend to return

temporary migration human capital and language fluency of migrants this paper investigates human capital investment of immigrants whose duration in the host country is limited either by contract or by their own choice the first part of the paper develops a model which distinguishes between temporary migrations where the return time is exogenous or optimally chosen the analysis has a number of interesting implications for empirical work some of which are explored in the second part of the paper the analysis focuses on language capital and tests the hypothesis that country specific human capital investments are sensitive to the duration in the host country s labour market the results show that the acquisition of language capital is sensitive to the intended duration in the host country

education quality and development accounting this paper measures the role of quality adjusted years of schooling in accounting for cross country output per worker differences while data on years of schooling are readily available data on education quality are not i use the returns to schooling of foreign educated immigrants in the u s to measure the education quality of their birth country immigrants from developed countries earn higher returns than do immigrants from developing countries i show how to incorporate this measure of education quality into an otherwise standard development accounting exercise the main result is that cross country differences in education quality are roughly as important as cross country differences in years of schooling in accounting for output per worker differences raising the total contribution of education from 10 to 20 of output per worker differences copyright 2012 oxford university press

the russian flat tax reform in 2001 russia dramatically reduced its higher rates of personal income tax pit establishing a single marginal rate at the low level of 13 in the following year real revenue from the pit increased by about 26 this flat tax experience has attracted much attention and emulation making it perhaps the most important tax reform of recent years but it has been little studied this paper asks whether the strong performance of pit revenue was itself a consequence of this reform using both macro evidence and in particular micro level data on the experiences of individuals and households affected by the reform to varying degrees it concludes that there is no evidence of a strong supply side effect of the reform compliance however does appear to have improved quite substantially by about one third according to our estimates though it remains unclear whether this was due to the parametric tax reform or to accompanying changes in enforcement anna ivanova michael keen and alexander klemm

can immigrants insure against shocks as well as the native born we examine the impact of job displacement and serious health problems on multiple measures of individual and household well being using longitudinal data we extend the previous literature by exami

precautionary saving by young immigrants and young natives 1 introduction and literature review foreign born population accounted for approximately 9 of the total population residing in the united states by the mid 1990s and including their children they were responsible for approximately 51 of the u s population growth martin 1995 these dramatic changes in the u s population have prompted much economic research on the immigrant population but despite the great deal of attention that has been paid to the labor market progress of immigrants little is known about their saving and wealth accumulation patterns 1 many studies requiring information on the saving behavior of immigrants simply assume that immigrant savings parallel that of natives macurdy nechyba and bhattacharya 1998 however it may be the case that immigrants behave differently have different motives different opportunities and different needs with respect to saving and wealth accumulation vis a vis natives most of the limited literature on the saving behavior of immigrants is inspired by european and middle eastern guest worker migration and consequently is geared to the behavior of temporary migrants 2 three papers that focus on the saving behavior of immigrants in general are the papers by galor and stark 1990 carroll rhee and rhee 1994 and dustmann 1997 galor and stark note that immigrants and natives differ from one another in their migration probabilities because immigrants have ties to other countries it is more likely that they emigrate relative to the native born worker 3 using an overlapping generations model galor and stark show that the higher the probability of emigration the higher is the level of savings hence they predict immigrants save more than the native born dustmann models precautionary savings and assumes that immigrants maximize expected lifetime utility from consumption in the host and home country proportionally to the lifetime spent abroad and at home 4 under appropriate restrictions 5 dustmann shows that if labor markets in the home and host countries are uncorrelated immigrants will carry out more precautionary savings relative to a comparable native worker because immigrants will be subject to greater income risk in the host country 6 however it is also possible in dustmann s formulation to have immigrants engaging in less precautionary saving relative to native workers for example if economic conditions across the two countries are correlated immigrants could be subject to less lifelong income risk than natives given their ability to diversify away labor market risk by operating in two markets rather than just one as in the case of natives additionally if the risk preferences of natives and immigrants are different then the precautionary saving motive could be more or less pronounced in one group relative to the other all else equal carroll rhee and rhee 1994 use the canadian survey of family expenditures to compare saving behavior of immigrants to canada from different regions of the world they conclude that immigrant saving does not significantly differ by country of origin however they do find that recent immigrants save less than do canadian born and that immigrants saving behavior approaches the pattern of the canadian born over time overall the theoretical literature tends to favor the hypothesis that immigrants carry out more precautionary savings than natives which could result in immigrants accumulating more wealth than natives immigrants face greater uncertainty regarding their labor market participation labor market progress and health care coverage these factors along with geographic distance may make it more difficult to obtain financial support from family members in times of necessity requiring that immigrants maintain larger stocks of precautionary saving but dustmann s model in consonance with a widely held view also allows for immigrants to be more risk tolerant than natives since they are willing to undergo higher uncertainties and risks when they decide to migrate to a new country barsky et al

the work effort and the consumption of immigrants as a function of their assimilation positive self selection has been used to explain the superior economic performance of some immigrant groups even if immigrants and natives are identical however the former face different incentives in particular they bear costs not incurred by natives including monetary costs of moving costs of staying in touch with family and obligations to those left behind nonmonetary costs include stress and loss of location specific human capital the focus of this paper is on how these costs influence the decisions of immigrants relative to those of natives particular attention is given to the role of assimilation

evaluating the economic effects of flat tax reforms using synthetic control methods tax reforms are often motivated by their potential to improve economic performance however their actual impacts are difficult to quantify we analyze the impact of flat tax reform on incomes using synthetic control methods we identify the eight eastern and central european countries that adopted flat tax systems between 1994 and 2005 and then compare post reform gdp per capita of treated countries with a convex combination of similar but untreated countries while accounting for the time varying impact of unobservable heterogeneity we find positive impacts in all eight countries with seven out of eight cases significant at the conventional level

the labor market integration of refugees in the united states do entrepreneurs in the network help we investigate whether entrepreneurs in the network of refugees from the same country of origin help refugees enter the labor market by hiring them we analyze the universe of refugee cases without u s ties who were resettled in the united states between 2005 and 2010 we address threats to identification due to refugees sorting into specific labor markets and to strategic placement by resettlement agencies we find that the probability that refugees are employed 90 days after arrival is positively affected by the number of business owners in their network but negatively affected by the number of those who are employees this suggests that network members who are entrepreneurs hire refugees while network members working as employees compete with them which is consistent with refugees complementing the former and substituting for the latter