the impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies abstract a recent strand of research proposes that sudden jumps in uncertainty generate rapid drops and recoveries in real macroeconomic variables that drive the business cycle using an empirical model we find substantial heterogeneity in reactions to these shocks across countries in comparison to the u s and other developed countries emerging economies suffer much more severe falls in investment and private consumption following an exogenous uncertainty shock take significantly longer to recover and do not experience a subsequent overshoot in activity we provide evidence that the dynamics of investment and consumption are correlated with the depth of financial markets we control for the potential role of a credit channel and estimate that it can account for up to one half of the increased fall in investment generated by uncertainty shocks among emerging economies with less developed financial markets in this context monetary and fiscal policy actions that alleviate the impact of credit constraints facing firms may reduce the impact of uncertainty shocks in these economies

household resource allocation in stepfamilies darwin reflects on the plight of cinderella the living conditions of american children have changed dramatically during the past 50 years in 1950 the vast majority of children were born to married parents and lived with both parents until they reached adulthood today over a third of all children are born to unmarried parents and over half will live apart from at least one of their parents before reaching age 18 larry bumpass and james sweet 1989 a majority of these children will live with a stepparent or foster parent and a substantial minority will experience multiple family disruptions and multiple changes in parental personnel numerous studies have shown that remarriage is not the panacea it was once thought to be children who grow up in two parent families consisting of a biological parent and a stepparent have outcomes very similar to children who grow up with only one parent and worse than children who are raised by both of their biological parents these differences cannot be explained by differences in income since stepfamilies and original two parent families enjoy similar levels of income one explanation for why children in stepfamilies do poorly is that stepparents are less altruistic and indeed may be quite hostile toward nonbiological children according to the theory of parental solicitude such feelings are rooted in psychological mechanisms that have evolved over time through the process of natural selection thus while household incomes may be similar for biological and nonbiological children investments in children may be quite different this paper examines differences in one input food consumption between different types of two parent families using data from the panel study of income dynamics psid these data contain information on all dyadic relationships within households between 1968 and 1985 and they allow us to identify several types of parent child relationships including biological adoptive step and foster relationships the paper addresses three questions

marriage market divorce legislation and household labor supply this paper provides a theoretical framework for analyzing the impact of the marriage market and divorce legislation on household labor supply in our approach the sex ratio in the marriage market and the rules governing divorce are examples of distribution factors these factors are defined as variables that affect the household members bargaining position but not preferences or the joint budget set we extend the collective labor supply model developed by chiappori to allow for distribution factors we show that our model imposes new restrictions on the labor supply functions and eases the identification of individual preferences and the intrahousehold decision process the model is estimated using psid data for the year 1988 our results do not reject the restrictions imposed by the model also the sex ratio and divorce laws deemed favorable to women are found to affect labor supply behavior and the decision process in the directions predicted by the theory and to have sizable effects

globalization and emerging markets with or without crash we analyze the effects of financial and trade globalization on the likelihood of financial crashes in emerging markets while trade globalization always makes crashes less likely financial globalization may make them more likely especially when trade costs are high pessimistic expectations can be self fulfilling and lead to a collapse in demand for goods and assets such a crash comes with a current account reversal and drops in income and investment lower income countries are more prone to such demand based financial crises a quantitative evaluation shows our model is consistent with the main stylized facts of financial crashes in emerging markets

rational household labor supply traditionally household behavior is derived from the maximization of a unique utility function in this paper we propose an alternative approach in which the household is modeled as a two member collectivity taking pareto efficient decisions the consequences of this assumption are analyzed in a three good model in which only total consumption and each member s labor supply are observable if the agents are assumed egoistic i e they are only concerned with their own leisure and consumption it is possible to derive falsifiable conditions upon household labor supplies from both a parametric and nonparametric viewpoint if alternatively agents are altruistic restrictions obtain in the nonparametric context useful interpretation stems from the comparison with the characterization of aggregate demand for a private good economy

the dynamics of international capital flows results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model abstract the present paper examines the degree of comovement of gross capital inflows which is a highly sensitive issue for policy makers we estimate a dynamic hierarchical factor model that is able to decompose inflows in a sample of 47 economies into i a global factor common to all types of flows and all recipient countries ii a factor specific to a given type of capital inflows iii a regional factor and iv a country specific component we find that the latter explains by far the largest fraction of fluctuations in capital inflows followed by regional factors which are particularly important for emerging markets fdi and portfolio inflows as well as bank lending to emerging europe the global factor however explains only a small share of the overall variation we also employ dynamic panel and time series regressions to explain the determinants of the estimated components the global factor is shown to reflect u s financial conditions

women s suffrage political responsiveness and child survival in american history women s choices appear to emphasize child welfare more than those of men this paper presents new evidence on how suffrage rights for american women helped children to benefit from the scientific breakthroughs of the bacteriological revolution consistent with standard models of electoral competition suffrage laws were followed by immediate shifts in legislative behavior and large sudden increases in local public health spending this growth in public health spending fueled large scale door to door hygiene campaigns and child mortality declined by 8 15 or 20 000 annual child deaths nationwide as cause specific reductions occurred exclusively among infectious childhood killers sensitive to hygienic conditions

global factors and emerging market spreads this paper shows that a large fraction of the variability of emerging market bond spreads is explained by the evolution of global factors such as risk appetite as reflected in the spread of high yield corporate bonds in developed markets global liquidity measured by the international interest rates and contagion from systemic events like the russian default this link has remained relatively stable over the history of the emerging market class is robust to the inclusion of country specific factors and helps provide accurate long run predictions overall the results highlight the critical role played by exogenous factors in the evolution of the borrowing cost faced by emerging economies

how important are global factors for understanding the dynamics of international capital flows abstract we propose a dynamic factor model with time varying parameters and stochastic volatility to analyze the relationship between global factors and country specific capital flow dynamics studying a global sample of 43 countries from 1994 until 2015 we show that global co movement of macroeconomic financial and capital flow variables can explain a major share of country specific capital flow volatility and that the impact of these variables has become even more important in the aftermath of the 2008 2009 global financial crisis our results indicate that country specific changes in capital flows are strongly affected by fluctuations in global financial cycles and to some extent by global real business cycles we provide also some evidence that the exchange rate regime the stock of reserves prudent fiscal policy and more developed stock markets can insulate economies at least partially from the global financial cycle

global financial shocks and foreign asset repatriation do local investors play a stabilizing role we study the dynamic response of gross capital flows in emerging market economies to different global financial shocks using a panel vector autoregressive pvar approach our focus lies primarily on the potentially stabilizing role played by domestic investors in offsetting the response of foreign investors to adverse global shocks we find that while foreign investors tend to retrench from emerging markets in response to global risk aversion and monetary policy shocks foreign asset repatriation by resident investors does not always follow suit local investors play a meaningful stabilizing role in the face of global risk aversion shocks with sizeable asset repatriation largely offsetting the retrenchment of non residents in contrast foreign investor retrenchment in response to global monetary policy shocks is not mirrored by asset repatriation finally we find robust evidence that positive global real shocks tend to have a positive impact on net capital inflows to emerging markets our results shed light on the likely impact of the fed s qe tapering on capital flows to emerging market economies

what drives capital flows to emerging markets a survey of the empirical literature this paper reviews the rapidly growing empirical literature on the drivers of capital flows to emerging markets the empirical evidence is structured based on the recognition that the drivers of capital flows vary over time and across different types of capital flows the drivers are classified using the traditional push vs pull framework which is augmented by a distinction between cyclical and structural factors push factors are found to matter most for portfolio flows somewhat less for banking flows and least for fdi pull factors matter for all three components but most for banking flows a historical perspective suggests that the recent literature may have overemphasized the importance of cyclical factors at the expense of longer term structural trends

divorce abortion and the child sex ratio the impact of divorce reform in china abstract this paper estimates the effect of china s pro women divorce reform on sex selection behavior within marriages the 2001 reform liberalized divorce in favor of women and secured women s property rights after separation the paper applies a regression discontinuity analysis on the child sex ratio and finds that the likelihood of having a son after a firstborn daughter decreased by 8 1 percentage points amounting to a reduction of 11 7 compared with the prior proportion of male children further analyses provide evidence in support of the hypothesis that improved divorce options empower women within marriage and enable them to avoid health damaging sex selective abortion the effect of the divorce reform is stronger in provinces where divorce is comparatively viable because of more lenient family planning policies governing fertility in the next marriage the effect is also stronger among women who face higher health costs of abortion

labor market opportunities and women s decision making power within households abstract despite the perceived importance of labor market opportunities in shaping married women s outside option and their bargaining power within households as a result this link has received very little empirical attention using longitudinal data on who makes the decision on a wide range of issues within mexican households and data from the administrative records of the mexican social security institute this paper identifies the effects of relative changes in labor market opportunities for men and women on both working and non working women s decision making power i find that increases in labor market opportunities improve women s decision making power as well as children s health using differential labor demand shocks across mexican industries caused by china s admission to the wto gives similar results

savings in transnational households a field experiment among migrants from el salvador abstract we implemented a randomized field experiment that tested ways to stimulate migrants savings in their origin country we find that migrants value opportunities to exert greater control over financial activities in their home countries we offered u s based migrants bank accounts in el salvador randomly varying migrant control over el salvador based savings by offering different accounts across treatments migrants offered the greatest degree of control accumulated the most savings impacts likely represent increases in total savings there is no evidence that savings increases were simply reallocated from other savings mechanisms enhanced control over home country savings does not affect remittances sent home

sudden stops are global and local investors alike the main goal of this paper is to characterize the determinants of sudden stops caused by domestic vis a vis foreign residents are the decisions of domestic investors to invest abroad or of foreign investors to cut off funds from the domestic economy governed by the same set of determinants given the distribution of different types of sudden stop episodes over time and its different macroeconomic consequences the authors argue that the determinants may not be alike using an effective sample of 82 countries with annual information over the period 1970 2007 the analysis finds that global investors are less likely to stop bringing their capital when their economy is growing and the world interest rate is lower domestic agents are more willing to invest abroad if the macroeconomic performance of the domestic economy is poor high inflation the financial system is weak and there are high external savings current account surpluses increasing financial openness makes the domestic country more vulnerable to sudden stops caused by either local or global investors finally countries with higher shares of foreign direct investment are less prone to inflow driven sudden stops whereas the opposite holds for outflow driven sudden stops

news and monetary shocks at a high frequency a simple approach we develop a simple approach to identify economic news and monetary shocks at a high frequency the approach is used to examine financial market developments in the united states following the federal reserve s may 22 2013 taper talk suggesting that it would begin winding down its quantitative easing program our findings show that the sharp rise in 10 year treasury bond yields immediately after the taper talk was largely due to monetary shocks with positive economic news becoming increasingly important in subsequent months

improving child welfare in middle income countries the unintended consequence of a pro homemaker divorce law and wait time to divorce abstract this study identifies the impact of access to and the speed of divorce on the welfare of children in a middle income largely catholic country using difference in difference estimation techniques i compare school enrollment for children of married and cohabiting parent households before and after the legalization of divorce implementing pro homemaker divorce laws increased school enrollment anywhere from 3 4 to 5 5 percentage points and the effect was particularly salient on secondary school students i provide evidence that administrative processes influencing the speed of divorce affect household bargaining and investments in schooling with every additional six months wait to the finalization of divorce school enrollment decreased by approximately one percentage point the impact almost doubles for secondary schooling when contemplating development policies advocates policymakers and leaders should not overlook the impact changes in family policies and administrative processes can have on advancements in child welfare and ultimately economic development jel d12 d13 j12 i21 i25

a nonlinear approach to us gnp a univariate nonlinear model is estimated for us gnp that on many criteria outperforms standard linear models the estimated model is of the threshold autoregressive type and contains evidence of asymmetric effects of shocks over the business cycle in particular the nonlinear model suggests that the post 1945 us economy is significantly more stable than the pre 1945 us economy

modeling nonlinearity of business cycles choosing between the cdr and star models nonlinear modeling has become popular in applied macroeconomics successful attempts include beaudry and koop s cdr current depth of the recession model of real gnp and various star smooth transition autoregression models of industrial production however these models have not been directly compared we compare cdr and star models of u s real gnp and industrial production we find i within sample the cdr model fits slightly better than the star model ii out of sample the cdr model forecasts better than the star model and iii the cdr model generates very different dynamics than the star model

intra household allocation of resources inferences from non resident fathers child support payments a large proportion of divorced and separated fathers form new partnerships the new partner s preferences are not likely to put much weight on expenditures on the man s children from his previous union thus his own and his partner s income would have different impacts on his child support payments if partners relative incomes affect bargaining power in household decisions this article exploits within father variation in the british household panel survey 1991 2005 to estimate the impacts of the intra household income distribution on child support payments and the father s welfare we find that a higher share of father s income in household income increases the probability of paying child support and its amount relative to household income

birth order family size and achievement family structure and wage determination do birth order and the size of one s childhood family influence environment thereby potentially affecting future achievement this article investigates the hypothesis that they do presenting two major empirical findings first neither birth order nor childhood family size significantly influences the level or growth rate of wages a result that is consistent with previous research second family size is both a statistically and economically significant determinant of women s employment status women from small families work less than women from large families when they are young and more than women from large families when they are more mature

do husbands and wives pool their resources further evidence this paper replicates results of an article showing that families with children increased expenditures on women s clothing relative to men s after implementation of a policy that shifted a child subsidy payment from the father to the mother these results were interpreted as evidence that families do not pool their income but allocate consumption based on income source however the current paper also finds an increase in relative spending on women s clothing among childless couples a sample the policy change did not impact alternative explanations are explored for observing these patterns but none can rule out either bargaining or income pooling

evolving international inflation dynamics world and country specific factors inflation in the most industrialized economies of the world has an important international common component that accounts for the historical decline in the national rates country specific conditions explain the rise in inflation volatility of the late 1970s and early 1980s and the subsequent fall during the last decade the world contribution to the variance of inflation has become increasingly more important than national contributions monetary policy was a relevant source of country specific fluctuations our conclusions are based on a time varying dynamic factor model applied to a large panel of inflation indicators

do husbands and wives pool their resources evidence from the united kingdom child benefit common preference models of family behavior imply income pooling a restriction on family demand functions such that only the sum of husband s income and wife s income affects the allocation of goods and time testing the pooling hypothesis is difficult because most family income sources are not exogenous to the allocations being analyzed in this paper we present an alternative test based on a natural experiment a policy change in the united kingdom that transferred a substantial child allowance to wives in the late 1970s using family expenditure survey data we find strong evidence that a shift toward greater expenditures on women s clothing and children s clothing relative to men s clothing coincided with this income redistribution

how does intergenerational investment respond to changes in the marriage market evidence from china abstract this paper examines how intergenerational investment responds to changes in the marriage market two major channels are modeled and empirically tested first expecting gender specific impacts on the future marriage market for their children parents adjustments in educational investment differ by the gender of children and second changes in marriage market conditions have contemporaneous impacts on intrahousehold bargaining because they change existing couples remarriage options which affects their educational investment in their children we test our model by exploiting a policy change in favor of local urban men in the urban marriage market in china we find that educational investment by local local couples decreases for sons but changes little for daughters consistent with the decrease in children s educational investment female favored consumption decreases while male favored consumption increases these results provide evidence of interaction between the intrahousehold bargaining and the future marriage prospect effects

extended families and child well being studies of household behavior have established the distribution of resources among household members predicts spending and savings patterns however there is a paucity of evidence on the relationship between the well being of individual family members and the distribution of resources within an extended family including non co resident family members given the central role the family plays in many models of economic behavior this is an important gap in the literature using rich longitudinal survey data from the indonesia family life survey ifls evidence is presented on the relationship between three measures of health and education related human capital of children and the distribution of resources among extended family members ifls is ideally suited for this research since the survey collects detailed information about income and wealth from both coresident and non co resident family members the empirical model is founded on a natural extension of the collective model of household decision making chiappori 1988 1992 to the extended family the model is particularly appealing in this context because it places few restrictions on preferences of individual family members and does not specify a specific bargaining mechanism that underlies negotiations the collective model yields empirical tests of whether the behavior of family members is pareto efficient a special case of the model allows all family members to be completely altruistic which is observationally equivalent to a unitary model of family behavior that special case is rejected by the data however the restrictions of the efficient model are not rejected indicating that non co resident family members are able to co ordinate allocation decisions with respect to child human capital investments in such a way as to make no family member better off without another member being worse off

the effect of sibling sex composition on women s education and earnings this paper documents the impact of siblings on the education of men and women born in the united states between 1920 and 1965 we examine the effect of the number and sex composition of a boy or girl s siblings on that child s educational attainment we find that throughout the century women s educational choices have been systematically affected by the sex composition of her siblings and that men s choices have not women raised only with brothers have received on average significantly more education than women raised with any sisters controlling for household size since sibling sex composition affects women s educational attainment and plausibly may be unrelated to other determinants of earnings it may provide a useful instrument for education in earnings functions for women our results suggest that standard estimates significantly underestimate the return to schooling for women

equity and bond flows to latin america and asia the role of global and country factors abstract this paper investigates the factors motivating the large capital flows to a number of developing countries in recent years we use monthly us capital flows to nine latin american and nine asian countries to analyze the behavior of bond and equity flows employing a panel data approach we find that although global factors the drop in us interest rates and the slowdown in us industrial production are important in explaining capital inflows country specific developments are at least as important especially for asia we also find that equity flows are more sensitive than bond flows to global factors but that bond flows are generally more sensitive to a country s credit rating and secondary market debt price

nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in g 7 countries this paper studies linear and nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in g 7 countries our models use the spread between short term and long term interest rates as leading indicators for gdp we examine data admissibility by determining whether these models have the ability to produce time series with classical cycles that resemble the observed classical cycles in the data and then we ask whether this data admissibility lends itself to better predictions of the probability of recession copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

global business cycles convergence or decoupling we analyze the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960 2008 using a dynamic factor model we decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in output consumption and investment into a global factor factors specific to country groups and country specific factors we find that during 1985 2008 there is some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among industrial economies and among emerging market economies surprisingly there is a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor we conclude that there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence or decoupling between them

intraregional spillovers in south america is brazil systemic after all the high business cycle correlation between brazil the large neighbour in south america and other countries in the region has been a frequent source of concern for policymakers as it has been viewed as evidence of the large influence of the former country on its neighbours this paper studies the importance of such influence documenting trade linkages over the last two decades and quantifying spillover effects in a vector autoregression setting we find that after controlling for common external factors spillovers from brazil are only relevant for southern cone economies especially mercosur s members and peru but not for the rest of south america and these findings are consistent with the extent of trade linkages between these countries we find also that spillovers can take two different forms the transmission of brazil specific shocks and the amplification of global shocks through their impact on brazil s output finally we also find suggestive evidence that depreciations of brazil s currency may not have significant impact on output of its key trading partners

international business cycles world region and country specific factors the paper investigates the common dynamic properties of business cycle fluctuations across countries regions and the world we employ a bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common components in macroeconomic aggregates output consumption and investment in a 60 country sample covering seven regions of the world the results indicate that a common world factor is an important source of volatility for aggregates in most countries providing evidence for a world business cycle we find that region specific factors play only a minor role in explaining fluctuations in economic activity we also document similarities and differences across regions countries and aggregates jel f41 e32 c11 c32

did unilateral divorce raise divorce rates evidence from panel data since early 1996 at least eight states have begun to consider rolling back unilateral and no fault divorce a major reversal of the liberalizing trend in divorce laws which began around 1970 the proponents of tightening the divorce regime often argue that making divorce more difficult will strengthen families however both theoretical and empirical evidence is decidedly mixed over whether the no fault revolution actually contributed to the sharp increase in divorce rates in the united states observed over the last 30 years in this paper i address the dispute by using a panel of state level divorce rates including state specific trends allows unobserved state divorce propensities to trend linearly and even quadratically over time and reveals that unilateral divorce raised divorce rates significantly and strongly excerpt

intrahousehold allocation and bargaining power evidence from chile abstract until 1999 children born out of wedlock in chile had fewer child support rights than those born to married couples i interpret a change in this law as an increase in the household bargaining power of women in cohabiting relationships using a panel of cross sectional data i find a decrease of 1 8 percentage points in the probability of working among men and an increase of 1 2 percentage points in school attendance of children under 19 these results provide evidence that contradicts the predictions of the unitary household model as well as the nash bargaining model the labor market outcomes support a model in which a reduction in men s relative bargaining power is understood as a tax on their wages

contraception as development new evidence from family planning in colombia there has been considerable debate in the last decade about whether or not family planning programmes in developing countries reduce fertility or improve socio economic outcomes this article provides new evidence by studying the expansion of one of the worlds oldest and largest family planning organisations profamilia of colombia it finds that family planning explains less than 10 of colombias fertility decline during its demographic transition as in wealthy countries however lowering the costs of first birth postponement produced important socio economic gains enabling young women to obtain more education and to work more and live independently later in life

changing the rules midway the impact of granting alimony rights on existing and newly formed partnerships this article analyses the effect of a reform granting alimony rights to cohabiting couples in canada a collective household model with a matching framework predicts that changes in alimony laws would affect existing couples and couples to be differently for existing couples it benefits the intended beneficiary but for couples not yet formed it generates offsetting intra household transfers and lower intra marital allocations for the beneficiary our empirical analyses confirm these predictions among couples united before the reform obtaining the right to petition for alimony led women to lower their labour force participation but not among newly formed cohabiting couples

characterizing nonlinearities in business cycles using smooth transition autoregressive models during the past few years investigators have found evidence indicating that various time series representing business cycles such as production and unemployment may be nonlinear in this paper it is assumed that if the time series is nonlinear then it can be adequately described by a smooth transition autoregressive star model the paper describes the application of these models to quarterly logarithmic production indices for 13 countries and europe tests reject linearity for most of these series and estimated star models indicate that the nonlinearity is needed mainly to describe the responses of production to large negative shocks such as oil price shocks

dowry and intrahousehold bargaining evidence from china this paper analyzes the relationship between a woman s intrahousehold bargaining position and her welfare within marriage using household data from rural china simultaneity problems are overcome by using dowry to proxy for bargaining position omitted variable bias is addressed by using grain shocks in the year preceding marriage as an instrument for dowry instrumented dowry positively impacts numerous measures of a wife s welfare including household purchases the time allocation of household members and the woman s satisfaction with life offering strong evidence in support of collective models of the household

do recessions permanently change output abstract this paper examines whether negative innovations to gnp are more or less persistent than positive innovations we find that once we allow for the impulse response of gnp to be asymmetric negative innovations to gnp are observed to be much less persistent than positive ones in particular the effect of a recession on the forecast of output is found to be negligible after only eight to twelve quarters while the effect of a positive shock is estimated to be persistent and amplified over time our results may therefore help reconcile two antagonistic views about the nature of business cycle fluctuations

hot money accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries an empirical investigation using maximum likelihood kalman filtering techniques and non parametric variance ratio statistics we gauge the relative importance of permanent and temporary components of capital flows to latin american and asian developing countries over the period 1988 1997 for the broad categories of flows in the capital account equity flows ef bond flows bf official flows of commercial bank credit bc and foreign direct investment fdi we find relatively low permanent components in ef bf and of while commercial bc flows appear to contain quite large permanent components and fdi flows are almost entirely permanent these results have a natural interpretation and clear policy implications

collective labor supply and welfare the paper develops a general collective model of household labor supply in which agents are characterized by their own possibly altruistic preferences and household decisions are only assumed to be pareto efficient an alternative interpretation is that there are two stages in the internal decision process agents first share nonlabor income according to some given sharing rule then each one optimally chooses his or her own labor supply and consumption this setting is shown to generate testable restrictions on labor supplies moreover the observation of labor supply behavior is sufficient for recovering individual preferences and the sharing rule up to a constant finally the traditional tools of welfare analysis can be adapted to the new setting

the dynamics of capital flow episodes nous proposons une methodologie nouvelle pour reperer les episodes de flux importants de capitaux cette methode repose sur un modele de markov a changement de regime le grand avantage de ce type de modeles sur les approches retenues dans la litterature est qu il permet de classifier les mouvements de capitaux en differents regimes sans qu il soit necessaire de formuler des hypotheses specifiques au contexte ou a l echantillon choisi

the new wave of private capital inflows push or pull abstract this paper studies the determinants and sustainability of the widespread private capital inflows to middle income countries after 1989 the key question is whether these flows are mostly pulled by attractive domestic conditions or pushed by unfavorable conditions in developed countries an analytical model focusing on country risk is developed and used empirically it is argued that the observed improvement in country creditworthiness is mostly due to the decline in international interest rates and that therefore its importance as a proximate cause does not support the pull interpretation all things considered in most countries the key answer that emerges is push

the pecking order of cross border investment abstract is there a pecking order of cross border investment in that countries become financially integrated through some types of investment rather than others using a novel database of bilateral capital stocks for all types of investment fdi portfolio equity securities debt securities as well as loans for a broad set of 77 countries we show that such a pecking order indeed exists the paper focuses on two key determinants of this pecking order information frictions and the quality of host country institutions overall we find that in particular fdi and to some extent also loans are substantially more sensitive to information frictions than investment in portfolio equity and debt securities we also show that the share as well as the size of fdi that a country receive are largely insensitive to institutional factors in host countries while portfolio investment is by far the most sensitive to the quality of institutions this provides new evidence in favor of some hypotheses but contradicts others put forward in the literature on trade in financial assets

efficient intra household allocations a general characterization and empirical tests the neoclassical theory of demand applies to individuals yet in empirical work it is usually taken as valid for households with many members this paper explores what the theory of individuals implies for households that have more than one member we make minimal assumptions about how the individual members of the household resolve conflicts all we assume is that however decisions are made outcomes are efficient we refer to this as the collective setting we show that in the collective setting household demands must satisfy a symmetry and rank condition on the slutsky matrix we also present some further results on the effects on demands of variables that do not modify preferences but that do affect how decisions are made we apply our theory to a series of surveys of household expenditures from canada the tests of the usual symmetry conditions are rejected for two person households but not for one person households we also show that income pooling is rejected for two person households we then test for our collective setting conditions on the couples data none of the collective setting restrictions are rejected we conclude that the collective setting is a plausible and tractable next step to take in the analysis of household behavior

rearranging the family income support and elderly living arrangements in a low income country this study examines the link between income and living arrangements our identification comes from exploiting a discontinuity in age in the benefit formula for the social pension in south africa in contrast to previous literature we find no association between pension income and elderly independence we do find that potential beneficiaries alter their household structure when they become pension eligible prime working age women depart and the presence of children younger than five and young women of childbearing age increase these shifts in coresidence patterns are consistent with a setting where prime age women have comparative advantage in work away from extended family relative to younger women the additional income from old age support may induce a change in living arrangements to exploit this advantage

capital market liberalization economic growth and instability summary this paper reviews briefly the arguments for capital market liberalization and identifies their theoretical and empirical weaknesses this provides the foundations for the argument for intervention in short term capital flows the paper concludes with a brief discussion of the various ways in which such interventions may be implemented 2000 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

women s empowerment and wellbeing evidence from africa abstractwe use household survey data from senegal to model the effects of empowerment within the home on married women s wellbeing the estimated effects of empowerment are at least as large as more conventional development indicators such as household income the size of the empowerment effect is robust to alternative estimation techniques including an instrumental variables estimator

spousal control and intra household decision making an experimental study in the philippines i elicit causal effects of spousal observability and communication on financial choices of married individuals in the philippines when choices are private men put money into their personal accounts when choices are observable men commit money to consumption for their own benefit when required to communicate men put money into their wives account these strong treatment effects on men but not women appear related more to control than to gender men whose wives control household savings respond more strongly to the treat ment and women whose husbands control savings exhibit the same response changes in information and communication interact with underlying control to produce mutable gender specific outcomes

the engel curves of non cooperative households we provide a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for a system of engel curves to have been generated by a non cooperative model of family behaviour these conditions fully characterise the local behaviour of household level consumption in the cross section i e as a function of total income and distribution factors in this setting any demand system compatible with a non cooperative model is also compatible with a collective model but the converse is not true we describe how these nested conditions may be tested using standard instrumental variables strategies

the schooling decision family preferences intergenerational conflict and moral hazard in the brazilian favelas this paper experimentally analyzes the schooling decisions of poor households in urban brazil we elicit parents choices between monthly government transfers conditional on their adolescent child attending school and guaranteed unconditional transfers of varying sizes in the baseline treatment an overwhelming majority of parents prefer conditional transfers to larger unconditional transfers however few parents prefer conditional payments if they are offered text message notifications whenever their child misses school these findings suggest important intergenerational conflicts in these schooling decisions a lack of parental control and observability of school attendance and an additional rationale for conditional cash transfer programs the monitoring they provide

alimony rights and intrahousehold allocation of resources evidence from brazil can family policy affect well being of individuals without altering the resources available to their families this article examines the extension of alimony rights and obligations to cohabiting couples in brazil for women in intact relationships alimony rights upon dissolution should improve outside options strengthening their negotiating positions and increasing their influence over intrahousehold allocation of resources robust econometric evidence indicates that more decision power in the hands of women impacts hours worked by female adults and investments in the education of children this suggests that family policy and models of family decision making should take intrahousehold heterogeneity of preferences into account

the great retrenchment international capital flows during the global financial crisis the current crisis saw an unprecedented collapse in international capital flows after years of rising financial globalization we identify the stylized facts and main drivers of this development the retrenchment in international capital flows is a highly heterogeneous phenomenon first across time being especially dramatic in the wake of the lehman brothers failure secondly across types of flows with banking flows being the hardest hit due to their sensitivity of risk perception and thirdly across regions with emerging economies experiencing a shorter lived retrenchment than developed economies our econometric analysis shows that the magnitude of the retrenchment in capital flows across countries is linked to the extent of international financial integration its specific nature with countries relying on bank flows being the hardest hit as well as domestic macroeconomic conditions and their connection to world trade flows gian maria milesi ferretti and cedric tille

marriage and divorce informational constraints and private contracting the relationship between divorce rates in the united states and laws regulating divorce are analyzed using data from a special current population survey undertaken in 1979 with particular reference to the adoption by many states of no fault divorce laws the author utilizes a contract theoretic framework to examine the impact of both legal and informational constraints on several aspects of the marriage relationship 1 the probability of divorce 2 compensation at divorce i e the terms of the divorce settlement 3 the probability of entering marriage and 4 incentives for investment in marriage specific capital two different models are developed the first assumes that ex post information about the value of each spouses opportunites at divorce is symmetric and that since divorce would only occur if the joint benefits outweigh the joint costs the law has no effect on the divorce rate the second model asserts that the existence of asymmetric information results in a fixed wage marriage contract and that divorce would be higher in states that allow unilateral divorce the evidence supports the first of these hypotheses excerpt

intra household resource allocation an inferential approach if household income is pooled and then allocated to maximize welfare then income under the control of mothers and fathers should have the same impact on demand with survey data on family health and nutrition in brazil the equality of parental income effects is rejected unearned income in the hands of a mother has a bigger effect on her family s health than income under the control of a father for child survival probabilities the effect is almost twenty times bigger the common preference or neoclassical model of the household is rejected if unearned income is measured with error and income is pooled then the ratio of maternal to paternal income effects should be the same equality of the ratios cannot be rejected there is also evidence for gender preference mothers prefer to devote resources to improving the nutritional status of their daughters fathers to sons

cross border marriage costs and marriage behavior theory and evidence this article analyzes cross border marriages between mainland china and hong kong hk we examine the effects of a reduction in cross border marriage costs following an increase in marriage migration quotas and the handover of hk to china we find that cross border marriages mainly involve men from the low tail of the hk attribute distribution we also find that hk women s position in the marriage market and within households deteriorated following the reduction in cross border marriage costs and that their disadvantaged position exerts an incentive effect on their labor market behavior these outcomes are consistent with our matching model

testing the neoclassical model of family labor supply and fertility the mcelroy horney nash bargaining model of family demand behavior relaxes the restriction that nonearned income of husband and wife has the identical effect on family labor supply and commodity demands this restriction of the neoclassical model offamily behavior is tested for the determination of husband and wife labor supply andfertility based on the 1981 socioeconomic survey of thailand the neoclassical restriction is rejected for female labor supply andfertility another unexplored limitation offamily demand studies due to the sample self selection of intact marriages is empirically treated through alternative estimation strategies in this case a more sharply focused theory of marital behavior is needed to identify family demand models

portfolio capital flows hot or cold a distinction is often made between short term and long term capital flows the former are deemed unstable hot money and the latter are deemed stable cold money using time series analysis of balance of payments data for five industrial and five developing countries we find that in most cases the labels short term and long term do not provide any information about the time series properties of the flow in particular long term flows are often as volatile as short term flows and the time it takes for an unexpected shock to a flow to die out is similar across flows long term flows are also at least as unpredictable as short term flows and knowledge of the type of flow does not improve the ability to forecast the aggregate capital account copyright 1995 by oxford university press

the empirical content of nash bargained household behavior in households whose allocation decisions can be represented as nash bargained household decisions extrahousehold environmental parameters eeps serve as pure shifters of the threat points the comparative statics of changes in demands due to changes in these eeps are given these are incorporated into a comprehensive statement of the empirical content of nash bargained household behavior including a nash generalization of barten s 1966 fundamental matrix equation of the theory of consumer demand estimation and data requirements are discussed along with nested testing of the following structure the neoclassical model is nested in the nash bargained model which in turn is nested in an unrestricted model of household demands emphasized throughout is the enriched menu of explanatory variables for demand analysis provided by the nash model as well as the model s ability to jointly analyze i household formation and ii intrahousehold allocation decisions

household bargaining and excess fertility an experimental study in zambia we posit that household decision making over fertility is characterized by moral hazard due to the fact that most contraception can only be perfectly observed by the woman using an experiment in zambia that varied whether women were given access to contraceptives alone or with their husbands we find that women given access with their husbands were 19 less likely to seek family planning services 25 less likely to use concealable contraception and 27 percent more likely to give birth however women given access to contraception alone report a lower subjective well being suggesting a psychosocial cost of making contraceptives more concealable

separate spheres bargaining and the marriage market this paper introduces the separate spheres bargaining model a new model of distribution within marriage it differs from divorce threat bargaining models e g manser brown mcelroy horney in that the threat point is not divorce but a noncooperative equilibrium within marriage this noncooperative equilibrium reflects traditional gender roles the predictions of our model thus differ from those of divorce threat bargaining models in the separate spheres model cash transfer payments to the mother and payments to the father can but need not imply different equilibrium distributions in existing marriages in the long run the distributional effects of transfer policies may be substantially altered by changes in the marriage market equilibrium

nonlinear business cycle dynamics cross country evidence on the persistence of aggregate shocks i introduction economists have long been interested in the dynamics of business cycles particularly regarding the symmetry of expansions and contractions more recently the specification of stochastic trends in economic growth has generated concerns about the relative persistence of positive and negative shocks to the economy several papers have looked at the persistence of business cycles including nelson and plosser 1982 campbell and mankiw 1987 cochrane 1988 diebold and rudebusch 1989 balke and fomby 1990 zelhorst and de haan 1994 and bradley and jansen 1995 while results vary especially on the issue of a unit root in output the overarching result is that output fluctuations are highly persistent one question not asked by the above authors is whether business cycle dynamics are asymmetric this issue has been investigated by neftci 1984 falk 1986 delong and summers 1986 hamilton 1989 diebold and rudebusch 1990 and terasvirta and anderson 1991 these authors take a variety of approaches but they reach a general conclusion that there is some evidence of asymmetric business cycle dynamics however most of these studies ask if contractions are shorter and steeper than expansions except hamilton 1989 they do not ask if there is a difference in persistence due to the asymmetries in a recent paper beaudry and koop 1993 propose a set of methods for simultaneously examining these two questions specifically beaudry and koop bk recommend the augmentation of the standard arma representation of real output growth through the inclusion of a nonlinear term that captures the relative state of the economy this augmentation provides for nonlinear dynamics and the possibility of asymmetric dynamic responses to positive and negative shocks in addition calculation of the implied impulse responses permits detection of the relative persistence implied by the combination of asymmetric cycle dynamics and stochastic trend based upon their analysis of u s data bk conclude that the response of the economy to positive and negative shocks is indeed asymmetric and the imposition of symmetry on impulse responses has likely led to misleading measures of persistence bk p 162 as a result bk conclude we find that the effects of negative shocks to be mainly temporary and the effects of positive shocks to be very persistent bk p 162 if bk s results are correct they have strong implications for the way macro economists view economic fluctuations and will in their words contribute to a reappraisal of some macroeconomic theories that is bk s results suggest that macroeconomic models must be revised to provide for temporary effects of negative shocks but permanent effects of positive shocks because of the potential importance of bk s results we examine the robustness of those results by modifying and extending bk s proposed methods of testing not only do we extend the analysis to the other six g7 countries besides the united states but also we redefine in a sensible way the nature of the nonlinear dynamics overall our results from other economies provide only mixed support for the asymmetry of cyclical dynamics and the lack of persistence of negative shocks ii the model to be estimated in the bk framework the estimated model includes an asymmetric response term the asymmetry is generated by a variable that measures the strength of a recession the variable is calculated as the distance between current real gdp and the previous peak level of real gdp that is bk define a measure they call current depth of the recession cdr where 1 cdr sub t max y sub t j sub j greater than or equal to 0 y sub t with this definition in place bk recommend augmenting an autoregressive model of real gdp growth as 2 phi l delta y sub t delta omega l 1 cdr sub

the effect of recessions on the relationship between output variability and growth this paper investigates the relationship between output volatility and growth using post war real gdp data for the united states we expand on recent research by beaudry and koop 1993 documenting the asymmetric effect of recessions on output growth the results presented in this paper suggest that output volatility is highest when the economy is contracting while we find that the economy expands most rapidly following a recession this expansion is offset by the negative impact of output uncertainty

market opportunities genetic endowments and intrafamily resource distribution child survival in rural india the authors examine how intrafamily resource allocations respond to changes in economic conditions and to genetic differences in children by estimating the determinants of variations in the sex specific survival differentials of rural indian children based on standard census and household survey data they explore in particular the hypothesis that such differences are related to the relative returns to survival with households selectively allocating resources to children in response to variation in sex differences in their expected earnings opportunities as adults data are from the 1961 census and a 1971 household survey excerpt

intrahousehold bargaining female autonomy and labor supply theory and evidence from india standard models of labor supply predict that unearned income decreases labor supply we propose an alternative noncooperative household model in which a woman s unearned income improves her autonomy within the household which raises her gains from working and can increase her labor supply we find empirical support for this model using women s exposure to the hindu succession act in india as a source of exogenous variation in their unearned income exposure to the hindu succession act increases a woman s labor supply by between 3 8 and 6 1 percentage points particularly into high paying jobs autonomy increased by 0 17 standard deviations suggesting that control of income is a potential channel for these effects thus policies that empower women can have an additional impact on the labor market which can further reinforce autonomy increases

do parents favor boys in an optimizing model of parental allocation systematic differences in human capital investments betwen the sexes may originate in at least 3 ways 1 parents may respond to expected gender wage differentials 2 parents may respond to systematic differences by gender in the price of human capital investments 3 parental preferences may favor girls or boys in the sense that they value identical outcomes at the same cost more highly for one sex than for the other this paper analyzes the role of parental preferences in general and unequal concern in particular in the allocation of human capital investments among children the authors generalize their earlier model of the human capital investments among children to incorporate the possibility that the returns to such investments may include not only the childs own ecpected earnings but also the expected earnings of his or her spouse thus the model assumes that parents may value returns that accrue trough the marriage market as well as through education the relevant returns to education may include marrying a spouse with higher expected earnings the empirical analysis indicates that gender wage differentials like endowment differentials are mildly reinforced by the parental allocation of human capital investments marriage market outcomes are significant determinants of the allocation of human capital investments among children there is no evidence that parental preferences favor boys this study shows that parental preferences either exhibit equal concern or slightly favor gils