decomposing the declining volatility of long term inflation expectations abstract the level and volatility of survey based measures of long term inflation expectations have come down dramatically over the past several decades to capture these changes in inflation dynamics we embed both short and long term expectations into a medium scale var model with stochastic volatility the model estimates attribute most of the marked decline in the volatility of expectations to smaller shocks to long run inflation expectations according to our estimates the volatility of shocks plummeted in the early to mid 1980s moved to a somewhat higher level that prevailed for much of the 1990s and then declined to and remained at very low levels

calculating and using second order accurate solutions of discrete time dynamic equilibrium models we describe an algorithm for calculating second order approximations to the solutions to nonlinear stochastic rational expectations models the paper also explains methods for using such an approximate solution to generate forecasts simulated time paths for the model and evaluations of expected welfare differences across different versions of a model the paper gives conditions for local validity of the approximation that allow for disturbance distributions with unbounded support and allow for non stationarity of the solution process

pricing variation within dual distribution chains the different implications of externalities and signaling for high and low quality brands within many of the multioutlet branded chains that dominate the retail and services landscape the organizational form e g company management franchising used to manage an outlet varies from site to site as do the prices charged at those sites i propose that organizational form and prices may be systematically related as a result of brand externalities in particular i develop logic that the relevant form of externality should differ for upper quality tier brands and lower tier brands using panel data on price and organizational form from more than 6 700 branded u s hotels affiliated with 40 dual distribution brands those brands that simultaneously company manage and franchise individual outlets i find that consistent with the brand externality arguments company managed locations have higher prices within high quality chains whereas franchisees price higher in the lower tiers this paper was accepted by bruno cassiman business strategy

experimental gasoline markets abstract zone pricing in wholesale gasoline markets is a contentious topic in the public policy debate with a controlled laboratory experiment we investigate the competitive effects of zone pricing on consumers retail stations and refiners vis a vis the proposed policy prescription of uniform wholesale pricing to retailers we also examine the issue of divorcement and the rockets and feathers phenomenon the former is the legal restriction that refiners and retailers cannot be vertically integrated and the latter is the perception that retail gasoline prices rise faster than they fall in response to random walk movements in the world price for oil

learning and time varying macroeconomic volatility abstract this paper presents a dsge model in which agents learning about the economy can endogenously generate time varying macroeconomic volatility economic agents use simple models to form expectations and need to learn the relevant parameters their gain coefficient is endogenous and is adjusted according to past forecast errors the model is estimated using likelihood based bayesian methods the endogenous gain is jointly estimated with the structural parameters of the system the estimation results show that private agents appear to have often switched to constant gain learning with a high constant gain during most of the 1970s and until the early 1980s while reverting to a decreasing gain later on as a result the model can generate a pattern of volatility which is increasing in the 1970s and falling in the second half of the sample with a decline that can roughly match the magnitude of the so called great moderation in the 1984 2007 period the paper also documents how a failure to incorporate learning into the estimation may lead econometricians to spuriously find time varying volatility in the exogenous shocks even when these have constant variance by construction

the effects of different contractual arrangements the case of retail gasoline markets the change in the contractual arrangement at a gasoline station from a refiner controlled to a franchise operation implies different incentives for the individual who sets prices and determines hours but reflects no change in the product nor the market environment the outcome can lead to higher prices and reduced hours at the station affected the divorcement experience in maryland illustrates how change can be imposed by the legal system average self service and full serve prices rose and hours of operation fell relative to those of competitors even though refiner operations that were forced to franchise had previously had prices below the competition the evidence of an effect on the prices and hours of competitors is less convincing 16 references 2 tables

the role of investment specific technological change in the business cycle this is a quantitative investigation of the importance of technological change speci c to new investment goods for postwar us aggregate uctuations a growth model that incorporates this form of technological change is calibrated to us data and simulated using the relative price of new equipment to identify the process driving investmentspeci c technology shocks the analysis suggests that this form of technological change is the source of about 30 of output uctuations 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

asset prices in affine real business cycle models abstract i describe a tractable way to study macroeconomic quantities and asset prices in a large class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models the proposed approximate solution is analytical log linear and adjusted for risk therefore it is well suited to investigate economic mechanisms describe the time series properties or estimate the model and deal with stochastic volatility i explain the pitfalls encountered by previous attempts to use simple approximation techniques in particular with models featuring recursive preferences finally i show the theoretical relationship between my solution and higher order perturbation methods

vertical antitrust policy as a problem of inference the legality of nonprice vertical practices in the u s is determined by their likely competitive effects an optimal enforcement rule combines evidence with theory to update prior beliefs and specifies a decision that minimizes the expected loss because the welfare effects of vertical practices are theoretically ambiguous optimal decisions depend heavily on prior beliefs which should be guided by empirical evidence empirically vertical restraints appear to reduce price and or increase output thus absent a good natural experiment to evaluate a particular restraint s effect an optimal policy places a heavy burden on plaintiffs to show that a restraint is anticompetitive

coalitional game theory approach to modeling suppliers collaboration in supply networks abstract suppliers collaboration is a new paradigm to improve the utilization of collective intelligence in supply networks although existing literature advocates the notion of cooperation in supply networks there is a dearth of studies quantitatively analyzing cost and benefit of cooperation in this study we first develop a model for suppliers dynamic coalition formation using coalitional game theory the proposed cost structure influences the utility of each possible coalition and restricts the coalition size and search space for finding possible coalitions to distribute the profit earned by cooperation in a fair manner a criterion named shared capacity index is developed according to suppliers capacity share in the corresponding coalition a suppliers cooperation algorithm is then proposed to resolve possible conflicts among network members whereby each supplier is able to explore coalitional structures autonomously the efficiency of the proposed approach is evaluated through simulation studies and compared to other solution methods including shapley value and proportional fairness results demonstrate that long term cooperation among suppliers leads to enhanced average individual profit in the network

the quantitative importance of news shocks in estimated dsge models we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with several frictions and both unanticipated and news shocks using quarterly u s data from 1954 to 2004 and bayesian methods we find that unanticipated shocks dominate news shocks in accounting for the unconditional variance of output consumption and investment growth interest rate and the relative price of investment the unanticipated shock to the marginal efficiency of investment is the dominant shock accounting for over 45 of the variance in output growth news shocks account for less than 15 of the variance in output growth within the set of news shocks nontechnology sources of news dominate technology news with wage markup news shocks accounting for about 60 of the variance share of both hours and inflation we find that in the estimated dsge model i the presence of endogenous countercyclical price and wage markups due to nominal frictions substantially diminishes the importance of news shocks relative to a model without these frictions and ii while there is little change in the estimated contributions of technology news when we restrict wealth effects on labor supply the contributions of nontechnology news shocks are relatively more sensitive

declining volatility in the u s automobile industry dramatic changes in the volatility of output occurred in the u s auto industry in the early 1980s namely output volatility declined the covariance of inventory investment and sales grew more negative and adjustments to production schedules which in earlier decades stemmed primarily from plants hiring and laying off workers were more often accomplished with changes in average hours per worker after the mid 1980s using a linear quadratic inventory model with intensive and extensive labor adjustments we show how all of these changes could have stemmed from one underlying factor a decline in the persistence of motor vehicle sales jel g31 l25 l62 m11

second order approximation of dynamic models with time varying risk abstract this paper provides first and second order approximation methods for the solution of non linear dynamic stochastic models in which the exogenous state variables follow conditionally linear stochastic processes displaying time varying risk the first order approximation is consistent with a conditionally linear model in which risk is still time varying but has no distinct role separated from the primitive stochastic disturbances in influencing the endogenous variables the second order approximation of the solution instead is sufficient to get this role moreover risk premia evaluated using only a first order approximation of the solution will be also time varying

macroeconomic volatility and external imbalances abstract does macroeconomic volatility uncertainty affects accumulation of net foreign assets in oecd economies over the period 1970 2012 changes in country specific aggregate volatility are after controlling for a wide array of factors significantly positively associated with net foreign asset position a standard open economy model with time varying macroeconomic uncertainty can quantitatively account for this relationship the key mechanism is precautionary motive more uncertainty induces residents to save more and higher savings are in part channeled into foreign assets data and theory suggest that volatility is an important determinant of the medium long run evolution of external imbalances in developed countries

a theory of endogenous coalition structures consider an environment with widespread externalities and suppose that bind ing agreements can be written we study coalition formation in such a setting our analysis proceeds by defining on a partition function an extensive form bargaining game we establish the existence of a stationary subgame perfect equilibrium for such a game our main results are concerned with the characterization of equilib rium coalition structures we develop an algorithm that generates under certain conditions an equilibrium coalition structure our characterization results are especially sharp for symmetric partition functions in particular we provide a uniqueness theorem and apply our results to a cournot oligopoly journal of economic literature classification numbers c71 c72 c78 d62 q 1999 academic press

vertical separation increases gasoline prices i introduction the choice and implications of firm structure remain central questions in industrial economics and for good reason analysis of recent u s census data suggests that within firm transactions now create the same amount of value as those between firms lafontaine and slade 2007 however despite a rich literature describing the potential trade offs involved in choosing between integration and separation little is understood about the consequences of a change in form when both are commonly used in an industry in large part this reflects the difficulty of estimating the marginal impact of an organizational form as its usage is likely driven by many of the same factors determining economic outcomes i add to the literature by estimating the marginal impact of vertical separation in retail gasoline markets where stakeholders have long been skeptical about integrated organizational forms some states have even limited refiner ownership of retail outlets despite an economics literature suggesting that such integration can lower prices by better aligning all parties incentives cooper et al 2005 vita 2000 to account for concern about the endogeneity of form i use panel data methods as well as an instrumental variables iv strategy the combination of the two approaches produces estimates robust to the presence of time invariant and time varying factors that simultaneously influence the choice of form and economic outcomes after accounting for the endogeneity of form i find that switching a station to a vertically separated form increases gasoline prices by amounts equal to 25 45 of the average retail margin these price effect estimates are slightly smaller in magnitude than the results in papers using statewide policy changes to identify the impact of organizational form barron and umbeck 1984 vita 2000 this difference makes sense given the distinct estimation strategies in this paper i identify the impact of form at marginal stations where the refiner is fundamentally indifferent between forms in contrast using policy changes to identify the marginal effect of form conflates marginal stations with inframarginal ones where a freely optimizing refiner would never choose to vertically separate thus one might expect papers using policy changes to overstate the marginal impact of form while accurately estimating the consequences of adopting a law prohibiting a form similarly estimates of the marginal effect of form will not necessarily accurately predict the consequences of a sweeping policy change interestingly i do not find that vertical separation has a statistically significant impact on overall fuel sales i interpret this as indicating that the high powered incentives given to local agents at vertically separated stations induce greater effort to increase local demand this can explain the apparently contradictory result of observing increased prices but not lower sales quantities moreover it is consistent with past theoretical models of vertical separation in gasoline retailing slade 1996 as well as anecdotal impressions of refiners organizational strategies kleit 2005 overall my paper contributes to two different literatures first it adds to a small but growing group of papers that disentangle the effect of form choice from the elements impacting the choice of form the papers in this literature suggest that separation can have widely varying consequences for example novak and stem 2008 find that vertical separation induces a trade off between initial performance and improvement in the automobile industry while forbes and lederman 2010 show that vertically integrated regional airlines are better at minimizing delays and cancellations in contrast kosova et al 2013 find no observable difference in outcomes across organizational forms for hotels associated with a large brand owner the different findings in our respective papers suggest that vertical separation induces local agents to exert effort in different ways in the two industries we examine

dynamic coalition formation and the core this paper presents a dynamic model of endogenous coalition formation in cooperative games with transferable utility tu the players are boundedly rational at each time step a player decides which of the existing coalitions to join and demands a payoff these decisions are determined by a best reply rule given the coalition structure and allocation in the previous period further the players experiment with myopically suboptimal strategies whenever there are potential gains from trade we establish an isomorphism between the set of absorbing states of the process and the set of core allocations and show that the process converges to one of these states with probability one whenever the core is non empty these results do not require superadditivity of the characteristic function and they carry over to the case of coalitional values depending on the coalition structure and to non transferable utility ntu games

empirical studies of gasoline retailing a guide to the literature abstract this paper surveys the empirical literature on gasoline retailing which has been growing rapidly over the last three decades possibly in response to antitrust and regulatory concerns and increased availability of pricing data studies of both pricing and non price decision variables are considered in general it is found that crude oil prices are the primary driver of national price movements over time however market structure has been identified as playing a role in price dynamics equilibrium selection and price differentials across markets and stations the economic literature emphasizes the importance of heterogeneity across stations and coordination problems faced by retailers several directions for future work are suggested including the development of theory and demand estimation using high frequency station level data

redistributive shocks and productivity shocks abstract a productivity innovation reduces labor share at impact making it countercyclical it subsequently produces a long lasting increase that peaks five years later at a level larger in absolute terms than the initial drop before slowly returning to average i e labor share overshoots we estimate a bivariate shock process to the production function that under competition in factor markets accounts for this overshooting we pose this process in an otherwise standard real business cycle economy and we find that the contribution of productivity innovations to the variance of hours is 1 of that in the standard rbc model

testing for indeterminacy an application to u s monetary policy reply this paper considers a prototypical new keynesian model in which the equilibrium is undetermined if monetary policy is passive the likelihood based estimation of dynamic equilibrium models is extended to allow for indeterminacies and sunspot fluctuations we construct posterior weights for the determinacy and indeterminacy region of the parameter space and estimates for the propagation of fundamental and sunspot shocks according to the estimated model u s monetary policy post 1982 is consistent with determinacy whereas the pre volcker policy is not we find that before 1979 indeterminacy substantially altered the propagation of shocks

monetary policy trend inflation and the great moderation an alternative interpretation with positive trend inflation the taylor principle does not guarantee a determinate equilibrium we provide new theoretical results on determinacy in new keynesian models with positive trend inflation and new empirical findings on the federal reserve s reaction function before and after the volcker disinflation to find that i while the fed likely satisfied the taylor principle before volcker the us economy was still subject to self fulfilling fluctuations in the 1970s ii the us economy switched to determinacy during the volcker disinflation and iii the switch reflected changes in the fed s response to macroeconomic variables and the decline in trend inflation jel e12 e23 e31 e32 e52

vertical integration and firm boundaries the evidence since ronald h coase s 1937 seminal paper a rich set of theories has been developed that deal with firm boundaries in vertical or input output structures in the last twenty five years empirical evidence that can shed light on those theories also has been accumulating we review the findings of empirical studies that have addressed two main interrelated questions first what types of transactions are best brought within the firm and second what are the consequences of vertical integration decisions for economic outcomes such as prices quantities investment and profits throughout we highlight areas of potential cross fertilization and promising areas for future work

equilibrium binding agreements abstract we study equilibrium binding agreements the coalition structures that form under such agreements and the efficiency of the outcomes that result we analyze such agreements in a context where the payoff to each player depends on the actions of all other players thus a game in strategic form is a natural starting point unlike the device of a characteristic function explicit attention is paid to the behavior of the complementary set of players when a coalition blocks a proposed agreement a solution concept and its applications are discussed journal of economic literature classification numbers c70 c71

long run risks in the term structure of interest rates estimation summary this paper estimates a model in which persistent fluctuations in expected consumption growth expected inflation and their time varying volatility determine asset price variation the model features epstein zin recursive preferences which determine the market price of macro risk factors analysis of the us nominal term structure data from 1953 to 2006 shows that agents dislike high uncertainty and demand compensation for volatility risks also the time variation of the term premium is driven by the compensation for inflation volatility risk which is distinct from consumption volatility risk the central role of inflation volatility risk in explaining the time varying term premium is consistent with other empirical evidence including survey data in contrast the existing long run risks literature emphasizes consumption volatility risk and ignores inflation specific time varying volatility the estimation results of this paper suggest that inflation specific volatility risk is essential for fitting the time series of the us nominal term structure data copyright 2012 john wiley sons ltd

vertical relationships and competition in retail gasoline markets empirical evidence from contract changes in southern california comment this study examines how much if any of the differences in retail gasoline prices between markets is attributable to differences in the composition of vertical contract types at gasoline stations in each market the purchase of the independent retail gasoline chain thrifty by arco provides a unique opportunity to examine the effects of changes in different vertical contract types on local retail prices this event caused sharp changes in the market share of i fully vertically integrated stations and ii independent stations differentially affecting local markets in the los angeles and san diego metropolitan areas using unique and detailed station level data this study examines how these sharp changes affected local retail prices the detailed data and the research design based on the thrifty station conversions allow for credible estimation of the effects of the market share of independent retailers and vertically integrated retailers on local market prices controlling for any omitted factors at the station level and the city level over time results for the los angeles and san diego metropolitan areas indicate that a decrease in the market share of independent stations has a significant positive impact on local retail price however a change in the market share of refiner owned and operated branded stations does not have a significant impact on local market price these results have important implications as policy makers consider the regulation of vertical contracts as a means to increase competition in gasoline markets the research design and detailed data also allow for inference on the underlying nature of retail gasoline competition

comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies this paper compares solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies the authors compute and simulate the stochastic neoclassical growth model with leisure choice using undetermined coefficients in levels and in logs finite elements chebyshev polynomials second and fifth order perturbations and value function iteration for several calibrations the authors document the performance of the methods in terms of computing time implementation complexity and accuracy and they present some conclusions about their preferred approaches based on the reported evidence

the implications of inflation in an estimated new keynesian model abstract this paper studies the steady state and dynamic consequences of inflation in an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the u s economy it is found that 10 percentage points of inflation entail a steady state welfare cost as high as 13 of annual consumption this large cost is mainly driven by staggered price contracts and price indexation the transition from high to low inflation inflicts a welfare loss equivalent to 0 53 of annual consumption the role of nominal real frictions as well as that of parameter uncertainty is also addressed

a prospect theory nash bargaining solution and its stochastic stability abstract we consider the long run outcomes of bargaining games when players obey prospect theory we extend the evolutionary bargaining model of young 1993 to a two stage nash demand game two players simultaneously choose whether to exercise an outside option in the first stage and play the nash demand game in the second stage which will be reached only if neither player exercises the outside option we address the influence on the stochastically stable division of reference dependent preferences where the reference point is the value of the outside option we show that the division consistently differs from the nash bargaining solution under expected utility theory inspired by this we propose a prospect theory nash bargaining solution which coincides with the stochastically stable division

stochastic stability under logit choice in coalitional bargaining problems abstract this study examines a dynamic process of n person coalitional bargaining problems we investigate the evolution of social conventions by embedding a coalitional bargaining setting in a dynamic process in each period a group of players may make some coalitional move that is forming a new team or negotiating the division of a surplus players revise their coalitions and surplus divisions over time in the presence of stochastic noise which leads players to make a suboptimal decision under a logit specification of choice probabilities we find that the stability of a core allocation decreases in the wealth of the richest player furthermore stochastically stable allocations are core allocations that minimize the wealth of the richest player

var analysis and the great moderation post world war ii us macroeconomic history is usually divided into two distinct subperiods the former period which extends up to the end of the volcker disinflation is characterized by a significant extent of macroeconomic turbulence with highly volatile inflation and output growth the latter period from the end of the volcker disinflation up to the present day is marked in contrast by significantly smaller volatilities for both inflation and output growth these dramatic changes in the reduced form properties of the us economy over the last several decades char acterize a phenomenon known as the great moderation see in particular chang jin kim and charles nelson 1999 margaret mcconnell and gabriel perez quiros 2000 a vast empirical literature has investigated the source s of the great moderation in an attempt to disentangle the relative contributions of two main explanations good policy and good luck based on time varying or markov switching structural var methods the good luck hypoth esis has been advocated by a number of authors including james h stock and mark w watson 2003 giorgio e primiceri 2005 christopher sims and tao zha 2006 and luca gambetti evi pappa and fabio canova 2008

weak instrument robust tests in gmm and the new keynesian phillips curve we discuss weak instrument robust statistics in gmm for testing hypotheses on the full parameter vector or on subsets of the parameters we use these test procedures to reexamine the evidence on the new keynesian phillips curve model we find that u s postwar data are consistent with the view that inflation dynamics are predominantly forward looking but we cannot rule out the presence of considerable backward looking dynamics moreover the phillips curve has become flatter recently and this is an important factor contributing to its weak identification

technology shocks in the new keynesian model in the new keynesian model preference cost push and monetary shocks all compete with the real business cycle model s technology shock in driving aggregate fluctuations a version of this model estimated via maximum likelihood points to these other shocks as being more important for explaining the behavior of output inflation and interest rates in the postwar u s data these results weaken the links between the current generation of new keynesian models and the real business cycle models from which they were originally derived they also suggest that federal reserve officials have often faced difficult trade offs in conducting monetary policy

housing credit constraints and macro stability the secondary mortgage market and reduced cyclicality of residential investment author s peek joe wilcox james a abstract as secondary mortgage markets developed and grew over the past two decades fluctuations in residential investment and in mortgage balances were much smaller than they had been prior to the 1980s we hypothesize that by reducing the volatility of the total supply of funds to mortgage markets larger secondary mortgage markets smm dampened the responses of residential investment to income and to interest rates and thereby contributed importantly to the great moderation in volatility of the u s economy our empirical results provide some evidence that the smm did continually reduce the volatility of residential investment over the past two decades by tempering its sensitivities to income and to interest rates

house prices borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle i develop a general equilibrium model with sticky prices credit constraints nominal loans and asset prices changes in asset prices modify agents borrowing capacity through collateral value changes in nominal prices affect real repayments through debt deflation monetary policy shocks move asset and nominal prices in the same direction and are amplified and propagated over time the financial accelerator is not constant across shocks nominal debt stabilises supply shocks making the economy less volatile when the central bank controls the interest rate i discuss the role of equity debt indexation and household and firm leverage in the propagation mechanism finally i find that monetary policy should not target asset prices as a means of reducing output and inflation volatility

investment adjustment costs an empirical assessment we evaluate empirical evidence for costs that penalize changes in investment using us industry data in aggregate models such investment adjustment costs have been introduced to help account for a variety of business cycle and asset market phenomena so far no attempt has been made to estimate these costs directly at a disaggregated level we consider an industry model with investment adjustment costs and estimate its parameters using generalized methods of moments the ndings indicate small costs associated with changing the ow of investment at the industry level the weighted average of the industry elasticities with respect to the shadow price of capital which depends inversely on the adjustment cost parameter is more than seven times larger than the largest estimate based on aggregate data we examine potential sources which may account for the large industry aggregate dierence overall our results suggest

price matching and the domino effect in a retail gasoline market i introduction for many years there have been competition concerns regarding how retail gasoline prices are set in the united states and canada in several u s states including delaware maryland nevada and virginia such concerns gave rise to divorcement legislation under which refiners are not permitted to own or operate gas stations 1 concerns have also been raised in the united states regarding zone pricing a company that owns and operates gasoline stations might define price zones where prices for all its stations in the zone are the same it has been suggested that zone pricing is a form of price discrimination and thus is an indicator of market power it has also been argued that zone pricing can be used in an anticompetitive fashion to coordinate pricing and to deter entry through localized price cutting 2 in canada consumers have complained about the perceived uniformity of retail gas prices in some markets and the perception that retailers raise their prices at the same time consumers have also been troubled by the observation that retail gasoline prices in some markets rise faster than they fall 3 concerns have also been voiced regarding interjurisdictional differences in retail prices that do not appear to be cost based indicating to consumers that retail gasoline markets are not competitive 4 possibly in response to public concerns canada s gasoline industry has advanced a competitive theory of gasoline pricing to explain certain perceived features of gas pricing that lead to allegations of collusion or anticompetitive behavior under this theory it is assumed that gas is a homogeneous good consumers are willing to drive long distances to save small amounts of money on gas and prices are perfectly observable by consumers and nearby competitors based on these assumptions it is argued that intramarket prices tend to uniformity individual stations quickly match price changes by certain competitors and price changes pass through an entire market almost immediately in a domino fashion 5 while many complaints have been made regarding how retail gas prices are set and the gasoline industry has offered explanations there are almost no publicly available studies of how prices actually change in urban retail gasoline markets using complete station specific data on intraday price changes over a long period of time such data are simply not available for most urban markets and can only be collected through personal observation of prices or possibly via subpoena of retailers pricing records in the course of a formal investigation even here price data may not be complete yet without such data there exists no formal evidence that the stylized facts that the competitive theory attempts to explain are indeed facts and that pricing behavior is consistent with a theory of anti or procompetitive conduct the purpose of this article was to use gasoline station price data collected eight times per day for 103 d for 27 gas stations in guelph ontario to evaluate the accuracy of the received wisdom regarding gas prices and the implications advanced by the informal theory of competitive gas pricing while the informal competitive theory seems to have been accepted by governments in many instances some jurisdictions remain unconvinced for example the sense that consumers concerns regarding gasoline pricing were not being addressed led the house of legislative assembly of nova scotia to establish an all party committee to investigate gasoline pricing in that province in its report the committee made a number of strong recommendations such as retail divorcement or price regulation if divorcement is rejected a prohibition of petroleum product sales below acquisition cost and that refiners must charge the same rack price to all customers 6 these recommendations are clearly motivated by anxieties regarding possible anti competitive conduct which may or may not be supported by a detailed analysis of retail gasoline pricing data

perturbed adaptive dynamics in coalition form games abstract players adaptively learn how to bargain a characteristic function describes the available surplus the underlying bargaining game extends the nash demand game by allowing subcoalitions to reach an agreement players demands must be multiples of a money unit we show that stochastically stable allocations ssa i e allocations that are most stable to unlikely errors are a subset of the core uniqueness does not obtain even when the money unit becomes arbitrarily small nonetheless every ssa is related to the allocation that maximizes the product of players utilities over the core i e constrained egalitarian solution for tu games journal of economic literature classification numbers c71 c72 c78

taxes cost and demand shifters as determinants in the regional gasoline price formation process evidence from spain abstract this paper examines the pass through of regional tax changes and spot price variations to regional gasoline prices in spain it also analyzes the impact of all major cost and demand shifters that contribute to regional gasoline price formation to address these research issues a reduced form price equation using monthly time series cross sectional tscs data from january 2004 through december 2008 is estimated strong and consistent evidence of full shifting of regional tax changes to regional gasoline prices is found gasoline spot price changes are more than proportionally passed through to retail prices in addition the empirical evidence shows on the one hand that regional gasoline price differences before taxes continue to be quite narrow and on the other hand that there is still a margin for larger gasoline price differences among regions this suggest that traditional practices from the monopoly era i e relatively uniform regional gasoline prices persist after the market has been liberalized which may have been facilitated by the strong and uniform presence of the major spanish based refining companies in the retail sector over the whole country

adaptive play in multiplayer bargaining situations we study the dual issues of allocation and coalition formation in a model of social learning for a class of economies which can be expressed in terms of a real valued characteristic function we first show that all self perpetuating allocations realized from a simple bargaining game must be core allocations although players make simultaneous demands for surplus and only on their own behalf following this we provide a sufficient condition under which the society eventually learns to divide the surplus according to some core allocation regardless of the initial history

productivity growth transparency and monetary policy abstract this study examines whether central bank transparency about views of future productivity growth contributes to stabilizing macroeconomic fluctuations in a standard new keynesian model the central bank and private agents make their subjective estimates on the persistence of productivity growth in this situation if private agents believe that the central bank s projections include forecast errors on future productivity growth these beliefs can destabilize private agents own expectations because the central bank s forecast errors may lead to policy mistakes in the future consequently central bank transparency does not necessarily stabilize the variations of the output gap and inflation rate the central bank should respond strongly to the inflation rate if the impact of transparency is uncertain

price ceilings as focal points to reach price uniformity evidence from a chinese gasoline market abstract this paper studies the price uniformity in the chinese gasoline market using station level data of hohhot city inner mongolia we first document that the mode prices of the gasoline stations are consistent with the price ceilings set by the government implying that the price ceiling regulation in the chinese gasoline market may serve as a focal point for the gasoline stations to reach price uniformity we corroborate the focal point hypothesis by providing evidence showing that some stations would jump to the ceilings as their prices approach the ceilings also we find that local market structure distance between stations station capacity market characteristics and past pricing behavior could affect the probability of gas stations to price at the ceilings moreover a higher price ceiling would reduce the probability that stations reach price uniformity our results provide another piece of evidence to the literature regarding the unintended effect of price ceiling regulation

franchising versus corporate ownership abstract this paper uses data on the prices charged at fast food restaurants in the metropolitan pittsburgh and detroit areas to assess the effect of franchising on price dispersion within chains in fairly narrowly defined geographical areas a review of reasons why firms may face more price dispersion under franchising guides the empirical analyses results indicate that 1 franchisors do not aim for fully uniform prices even on the corporate side of their chains 2 the degree of price dispersion is highest for firms with both franchised and company owned units as predicted by models implying a systematic price differential between units operated under these different contracting mechanisms and 3 price dispersion for fully franchised chains is greater than for fully corporate chains these last two results combined with evidence from court cases that franchisors sometimes try to control franchisee prices directly suggest that franchisors indeed lose some amount of control over prices charged to customers when they use franchising as opposed to corporate ownership finally i find a positive effect of the royalty rate on price dispersion this suggests that double marginalization is behind at least some of the higher prices found in franchised units in the existing literature

the term structure of interest rates in a dsge model with recursive preferences abstract a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model in which households have epstein and zin recursive preferences is solved with perturbation the parameters governing preferences and technology are estimated by maximum likelihood using macroeconomic data and the term structure of interest rates the estimates imply a large risk aversion an elasticity of intertemporal substitution higher than one and substantial adjustment costs furthermore the paper identifies the tensions within the model by estimating it on subsets of these data the analysis concludes by pointing out potential extensions that may improve the model s fit

the time varying volatility of macroeconomic fluctuations we investigate the sources of the important shifts in the volatility of us mac roeconomic variables in the postwar period to this end we propose the esti mation of dsge models allowing for time variation in the volatility of the structural innovations we apply our estimation strategy to a large scale model of the business cycle and find that shocks specific to the equilibrium condition of investment account for most of the sharp decline in volatility of the last two decades jel c51 e32

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

revealing the preferences of the us federal reserve we use bayesian methods to estimate changes in us post war monetary policy in the smets and wouters model we perform the estimations by allowing for a break in monetary policy at the time of volcker s appointment as chairman this enables us to capture changes in the monetary policy regime introduced by volcker during the volcker greenspan period we find support for the assumption that monetary policy in the volcker greenspan period performed optimally under commitment our estimation strategy allows us to estimate the preferences of the us federal reserve in the volcker greenspan period where the main objective of policy appears to be inflation followed by interest rate stabilization output growth and interest rate smoothing we find that the great moderation of output growth is explained by a combination of two factors the decrease in the volatility of the structural shocks and the improved monetary policy conduct inflation stabilization however is mainly due to the change in monetary policy that took place at the beginning of volcker s mandate copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

fifth order perturbation solution to dsge models abstract this paper derives a fifth order perturbation solution to dsge models the paper develops a new notation that reduces the notational complexity of high order solutions and yields a faster code the new notation consists of new matrix forms of high order multivariate chain rules and a new representation of the model as a function of one vector variable the algorithm that implements the new notation is between 3 and 55 times faster than dynare depending on model size and solution order

demand driven integration and divorcement policy abstract traditionally vertical integration has concerned industrial economists only insofar as it affects market outcomes particularly prices this paper considers reverse causality from prices and more generally from demand to integration in a model of a dynamic oligopoly if integration is costly but enhances productive efficiency then a trend of rising prices and increasing integration could be due to growing demand in which case a divorcement policy of forced divestiture may be counterproductive divorcement can only help consumers if it undermines collusion but then there are dominating policies we discuss well known divorcement episodes in retail gasoline and british beer as well as other evidence in light of the model

conflict leads to cooperation in demand bargaining abstract we consider a multilateral nash demand game in which short sighted players come to the bargaining table with requests for both coalition partners and the potentially generated resource we prove that the resulting process converges with probability one to a state in which all players agree on a strictly self enforcing division of resources i e a strict core allocation highlighting group dynamics we show how the myopic actions of players may lead to the break up of groups in the short run but can ultimately bring about a situation from which a strictly self enforcing allocation can be reached

inventories and the business cycle an equilibrium analysis of s s policies we develop an equilibrium business cycle model where nonconvex delivery costs lead firms to follow s s inventory policies calibrated to postwar us data the model reproduces two thirds of the cyclical variability of inventory investment moreover it delivers strongly procyclical inventory investment greater volatility in production than sales and a countercyclical inventory to sales ratio our model challenges several prominent claims involving inventories including the widely held belief that they amplify aggregate fluctuations despite the comovement between inventory investment and final sales gdp volatility is essentially unaltered by inventory accumulation because procyclical inventory investment diverts resources from final production thereby dampening fluctuations in sales

dynamic coalition reformation for adaptive demand and capacity sharing abstract to deal with volatile product demand and rapidly changing manufacturing technologies for sustainable returns selective collaboration among companies in supply networks sns is required recently demand and capacity sharing among independent and non competitive manufacturers at the same horizontal layer in sns has been studied through an appropriate coalition for collaborative demand and capacity sharing manufacturers can minimize their lost sales as well as maximize production capacity utilization against lumpy real demand in a previous study we have developed the collaborative demand and capacity sharing cdcs protocol which addresses a long term profitable and well balanced collaboration for each manufacturer through distributed decision making however the uncertainty of circumstances calls for an effective and timely reformation of coalitions in reality there is a trade off between frequent accommodation to changeable environments and high additional costs incurred by reformation hence in this paper we design the adaptive cdcs protocol based on dynamic contract mechanism in each period our protocol suggests whether to reform existing coalitions or not based on theoretical analyses of long term expected net profit to evaluate its performance a numerical experiment is conducted by comparing three models no collaboration static collaboration and dynamic collaboration by adaptive cdcs protocol dynamic collaboration results in more profits and its balanced redistribution by accommodating with changeable conditions

retail contracting theory and practice we summarize a number of regularities that arise in the empirical literature on contractual relationships between manufacturers and their exclusive resellers we do this using studies of traditional and business format franchise relationships as well as studies of salesforce integration decisions some of the patterns that we uncover are consistent with a standard incentive cum insurance theory of organization while others are not we brie y review some theoretical extensions that seem promising in terms of reconciling seeming con icts between theory and practice i introduction manufacturers of retail products must decide whether to sell their products to consumers themselves vertical integration or to sell via independent retailers vertical separation when manufacturers do not perform the sales function internally but want exclusive retailers they usually choose some form of franchising 1 many theories attempt to explain the choice of retail organizational form moreover a considerable body of empirical evidence concerning this choice is accumulating we attempt to evaluate this econometric evidence and relate it to the theories to accomplish this task we assess studies of franchising arrangements as well as studies of sales force organization in industrial settings the paper is organized as follows in the next section we highlight a number of regularities that arise in the empirical literature on retail contracting in particular we nd that i risk is positively related to the use of high powered incentives vertical separation ii the importance of the agent s eiort in production is positively related to the use of high powered incentives

imperfect credibility and inflation persistence in this paper we formulate a dynamic general equilibrium model with staggered nominal contracts in which households and rms use optimal ltering to disentangle persistent and transitory shifts in the monetary policy rule the calibrated model accounts quite well for the dynamics of output and insation during the volcker disinsation and implies a sacri ce ratio very close to the estimated value our approach indicates that insation persistence and substantial costs of disinsation can be generated in an optimizing agent framework without relaxing the assumption of rational expectations or relying on arbitrary modi cations to the aggregate supply relation jel classi cation e31 e32 e52

combining var and dsge forecast densities a popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy utilizes many models to hedge against instabilities of unknown timing see among others stock and watson 2004 clark and mccracken 2010 and jore et al 2010 existing studies of this forecasting strategy exclude dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models despite the widespread use of these models by monetary policymakers in this paper we use the linear opinion pool to combine inflation forecast densities from many vector autoregressions vars and a policymaking dsge model the dsge receives a substantial weight in the pool at short horizons provided the var components exclude structural breaks in this case the inflation forecast densities exhibit calibration failure allowing for structural breaks in the vars reduces the weight on the dsge considerably but produces well calibrated forecast densities for inflation

the structural dynamics of u s output and inflation what explains the changes we examine the dynamics of u s output and inflation using a structural time varying coefficients vector autoregression there are changes in the volatility of both variables and in the persistence of inflation but variations are statistically insignificant technology shocks explain changes in output volatility real demand disturbances variations in the persistence and volatility of inflation we detect important time variations in the transmission of technology shocks to output and demand shocks to inflation and significant changes in the variance of technology and of monetary policy shocks

ownership form managerial incentives and the intensity of rivalry this study investigates how differences in ownership form between franchised and company owned units affect managerial incentives and competitive pricing in different oligopolistic contexts we arg

has monetary policy become more effective we investigate the implications of changes in the structure of the u s economy for monetary policy effectiveness estimating a vector autoregression over the pre and post 1980 periods we provide evidence of a reduced effect of monetary policy shocks in the latter period we estimate a structural model that replicates well the economy s response in both periods and perform counterfactual experiments to determine the source of the change in the monetary transmission mechanism and in the economy s volatility we find that by responding more strongly to inflation expectations monetary policy has stabilized the economy more effectively in the post 1980 period

learning and the great moderation we study a stylized theory of the volatility reduction in the u s after 1984 the great moderation which attributes part of the stabilization to less volatile shocks and another part to more difficult inference on the part of bayesian households attempting to learn the latent state of the economy we use a standard equilibrium business cycle model with technology following an unobserved regime switching process after 1984 according to kim and nelson 1999a the variance of u s macroeconomic aggregates declined because boom and recession regimes moved closer together keeping conditional variance unchanged in our model this makes the signal extraction problem more difficult for bayesian households and in response they moderate their behavior reinforcing the effect of the less volatile stochastic technology and contributing an extra measure of moderation to the economy we construct example economies in which this learning effect accounts for about 30 of a volatility reduction of the magnitude observed in the postwar u s data

money demand heterogeneity and the great moderation abstract a forward looking model of the demand for money based on heterogeneous and sluggish portfolio adjustment can simultaneously account for the low short run and high long run semi elasticities reported in the literature the parameter estimates from the model for the short run and long run interest semi elasticities are 1 04 and 13 16 respectively a simulated version of the model suggests that the great moderation can be partially attributed to financial innovations in the late 1970s when moving toward a more flexible portfolio the model can account for almost one third of the observed decline in the volatilities of output consumption and investment

the lucas critique and the stability of empirical models this paper re considers the empirical relevance of the lucas critique using a dsge sticky price model in which a weak central bank response to inflation generates equilibrium indeterminacy the model is calibrated on the magnitude of the historical shift in the federal reserve s policy rule and is capable of generating the decline in the volatility of inflation and real activity observed in u s data using monte carlo simulations and a backward looking model of aggregate supply and demand we show that shifts in the policy rule induce breaks in both the reduced form coefficients and the reduced form error variances the statistics of popular parameter stability tests are shown to have low power if such heteroskedasticity is neglected in contrast when the instability of the reduced form error variances is accounted for the lucas critique is found to be empirically relevant for both artificial and actual data

a noncooperative view of coalition formation and the core a noncooperative implementation of the core is provided for games with transferable utility the implementation obtained here is meant to reflect the standard motivation for the core as closely as possible in the model proposed time is continuous this idealized treatment of time is most amenable for capturing an essential feature of the core there is always time to reject a noncore proposal before it is consumated

the decline in u s output volatility explanations for the decline in u s output volatility since the mid 1980s include better policy good luck and technological change our multiple break estimates suggest that reductions in volatility since the mid 1980s extend not only to manufacturing inventories but also to sales this finding along with a concentration of the reduction in the volatility of inventories in materials and supplies and the lack of a significant break in the inventory sales covariance imply that new inventory technology cannot account for most of the decline in output volatility

long run implications of investment specific technological change an attempt is made to disentangle its effects from the more traditional hicksneutral form of technological progress the balanced growth path for the model is characterized and calibrated to u s national income and product account nipa data the quantitative analysis suggests that investment specific technological change accounts for the major part of growth jel e13 030 041 047

on the fit of new keynesian models this article provides new tools for the evaluation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models and applies them to a large scale new keynesian model we approximate the dsge model by a vector autoregression and then systematically relax the implied cross equation restrictions and document how the model fit changes we also compare the dsge model s impulse responses to structural shocks with those obtained after relaxing its restrictions we find that the degree of misspecification in this large scale dsge model is no longer so large as to prevent its use in day to day policy analysis yet is not small enough to be ignored

the thrift crisis mortgage credit intermediation and housing activity this paper evaluates the influence of periodic disruptions in the thrift industry on mortgage credit intermediation and housing activity results of the analysis indicate that disruptions in the thrift industry during the early 1980s imposed real costs on the economy by reducing the amount of mortgage credit intermediation estimation findings indicate a sizable mortgage interest rate premium stemming from the loss in thrift intermediation services during the early 1980s those higher mortgage rates served to dampen housing demand in turn exacerbating the cyclical decline in contrast empirical findings for the post recession period of the 1980s indicates a severing of the link between mortgage interest rates and thrift provision of mortgage credit copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

the dampening of competition effect of exclusive dealing using the dampening of competition approach to understanding vertical relationships this paper shows that in the absence of intrabrand retailer competition firms earn greater profits using exclusive dealing the paper explains the frequent simultaneous appearance of exclusive dealing and exclusive territoriality the results are used to analyze the famous 1949 standard stations case the author concludes that the 1949 court did the right thing for a wrong reason copyright 1990 by blackwell publishing ltd

level and volatility factors in macroeconomic data abstract macroeconomic models typically focus on innovations in the level of fundamentals as driver of business cycles because modeling of volatility can be demanding this paper suggests a simple methodology that can separate the level from the volatility factors without directly estimating the volatility processes this is made possible by exploiting features in the second order approximation of equilibrium models and using information in a large panel of data to estimate the factors augmenting the factors to a var shed light on the effects of the level and volatility shocks and their relative importance

the dynamic effects of neutral and investment specific technology shocks the neoclassical growth model is used to identify the short run effects of neutral technology shocks which affect the production of all goods homogeneously and investment specific shocks which affect only investment goods the real equipment price crucial for identifying the investment shocks experiences an abrupt increase in its average rate of decline in 1982 so the analysis is based on a split sample on the basis of the preferred specification the two technology shocks account for 73 percent of hours and 44 percent of output s business cycle variation before 1982 and 38 percent and 80 percent afterward the shocks also account for more than 40 percent of hours and 58 percent of output s forecast errors over a three to eight year horizon in both samples the majority of these effects are driven by the investment shocks

identifying the sources of instabilities in macroeconomic fluctuations abstract this paper investigates the sources of the substantial decrease in output growth volatility in the mid 1980s by identifying which of the structural parameters in a representative new keynesian and structural var models changed overturning conventional wisdom we show that the great moderation was due not only to changes in shock volatilities but also to changes in monetary policy parameters as well as in the private sector s parameters the great moderation was previously attributed to good luck because the alternative sources of instabilities appear to have offsetting effects on output volatility and therefore were impossible to detect using existing techniques

recontracting and stochastic stability in cooperative games abstract an evolutionary style model of recontracting is given which guarantees convergence to core allocations of an underlying cooperative game unlike its predecessors in the evolution learning literature this is achieved without assumptions of convexity of the characteristic function or a reliance on random errors the stochastic stability properties of the model are then examined and it is shown that stochastically stable states solve a simple and intuitive minimization problem which reduces to maximizing a rawlsian swf for a common class of utility functions in contrast to previous analyses the stochastically stable state is unique for a broad class of utility functions

pricing behavior and verticle contracts in retail markets recent developments in the economic theory of multifirm markets and firm organization have motivated several empirical studies of retail gasoline markets a growing body of theoretical work suggests that the behavior of firms in markets once viewed as workably competitive can diverge significantly from that characteristic of competitive markets static models of free entry markets where firms are horizontally differentiated suggest that the equilibrium price structure will reflect local market power dynamic oligopoly models suggest that repeated interaction can sustain tacitly collusive outcomes in multifirm industries because gasoline stations are strikingly simple firms and data are available on wholesale and retail gasoline prices this market has proven to be a useful arena for testing pricing predictions from these models these tests are discussed in section i another growth area in industrial organization is research on the nature of vertical contracts this work suggests that the optimal contract between a manufacturer and a retailer will be sensitive to the nature of downstream competition and the available control technology imperfect competition downstream can lead to double marginalization and imperfect monitoring can allow shirking or free riding the manufacturer can be expected to choose contractual forms that minimize these effects section ii discusses efforts to assess the effect of competition and monitoring on the refiner s choice of contractual form for retail outlets while examining contractual form is interesting in itself policy initiatives provide additional impetus for examining contracts in gasoline retailing refiners have long been a favorite target of antitrust enforcement and complaints regarding restraints imposed on retailers have been viewed sympathetically by the courts court decisions have made unlawful exclusive dealing clauses for gasoline and automotive products as well as the various arrangements through which a refiner can control the retail price at franchise outlets in the last decade federal and state governments have enacted legislation further restricting the nature of the contract between refiners and the retail outlets for their gasoline the growth in these restrictions naturally leads to positive questions about the nature and effect of contractual relationships between refiners and dealers