technological vs ecological switch and the environmental kuznets curve we consider an optimal technology adoption ak model in line with boucekkine krawczyk and vallee 2011 an economy caring about consumption and pollution as well starts with a given technological regime and may decide to switch at any moment to a cleaner technology at a given permanent or transitory output cost at the same time we posit that there exists a pollution threshold above which the assimilation capacity of nature goes down featuring a kind of irreversible ecological regime we study how ecological irreversibility interacts with the ingredients of the latter optimal technological switch problem with a special attention to induced capital pollution relationship we find that if a single technological switch is optimal one recovers the environmental kuznets curve provided initial pollution is high enough if exceeding the ecological threshold is optimal then the latter configuration is far from being the rule

questioning the empirical basis of the environmental kuznets curve for co2 new evidence from a panel stationarity test robust to multiple breaks and cross dependence abstract this paper investigates the time series properties of per capita co2 emissions and per capita gdp levels for a sample of 86 countries over the period 1960 2000 for that purpose we employ a state of the art panel stationarity test which incorporates multiple shifts in level and slope thereby controlling for cross sectional dependence through bootstrap methods our analysis renders clear cut evidence that per capita gdp levels are nonstationary for the world as a whole while per capita co2 is found to be regime wise trend stationary the analysis of country groups shows that for africa and asia per capita co2 is best described as nonstationary while per capita gdp appears stationary around a broken trend in addition we find evidence of regime wise trend stationarity in both variables for the country groups consisting of america europe and oceania the results of our analysis carry important implications for the statistical modelling of the environmental kuznets curve for co2 since the differing order of integration in both variables for the world as a whole and for africa and asia calls into question the validity of panel cointegration techniques which assume that both variables are nonstationary and cointegrated with one another cointegration techniques would not be appropriate either for the case of america europe and oceania which are characterised by per capita gdp and co2 emissions being stationary around a broken trend similar conclusions are reached when we analyse country groups based on levels of development failure to properly characterise the time series properties of the data by not controlling for an unknown number of structural breaks and for cross sectional dependence could be responsible for the fragility and lack of robustness surrounding the estimation of environmental kuznets curves

inequality and the environmental kuznets curve abstract is income inequality harmful to the environment the answer to this question has not reached a consensus in the literature this study seeks to provide insight into this question by examining the influence of income inequality on the environmental kuznets curve ekc i e the impact of income inequality on the ekc turning point two potential mechanisms through which inequality may affect the ekc turning point by reducing public demand for environmental protection and by increasing a power of capital owners to prevent such protection using a large sample n 170 174 of countries we find evidence of the ekc for so2 emissions and income inequality has a significant impact on the ekc turning point income inequality increases the ekc turning point suggesting that high inequality can be damaging to the environment the results are robust to potential outliers different data sources of income inequality a different so2 emissions measure changes in model specification different samples and an alternative estimation method we also find that inequality appears to be more important than corruption in determining the ekc turning point

the fate of easter island the limits of resource management institutions abstract malthus malthus thomas 1798 1970 an essay on the principle of population penguin new york believed that population growth will eventually lead to natural resource depletion economic and social collapse and population decline brander and taylor brander james a taylor m scott 1998 the simple economics of easter island a ricardo malthus model of renewable resource use american economic review 88 119 138 use a predator prey model with an assumption of an open access resource they show that the collapse of easter island could be explained by a malthusian trap combined with technical characteristics of the resources they suggest that institutional change such as assignment of property rights could potentially have averted the collapse of easter island in this paper we show that even if the islanders had complete assignment of property rights and implemented optimal resource management with infinite horizon or equivalently had a social planner that implemented such an optimal plan as in neoclassical welfare economics a similar boom bust cycle would have occurred

the impact of economic growth on co2 emissions in azerbaijan abstract this paper investigates the relationship between the economic growth and co2 emissions in azerbaijan a cointegration analysis is conducted over the period 1992 2013 for getting more robust results johansen ardlbt dols fmols and ccr methods are employed to explore cointegration and estimate long run coefficients we use cubic quadratic and linear specifications and conclude that the last one is an adequate representation for the impact of the economic growth on co2 emissions in azerbaijan the results from the different cointegration methods are consistent with each other and show that the economic growth has a positive and statistically significant impact on the emissions in the long run implying that the ekc hypothesis does not hold for azerbaijan the income elasticity of co2 emissions using different methods is found to be between 0 7 and 0 8 moreover we find that any short run imbalance can be adjusted towards the long run equilibrium path within less than one year the paper concludes that measures to increase energy efficiency carbon pricing instruments in production and international domestic trade activities and nationwide social awareness programs to instruct about the negative consequences of pollution can be considered as relevant environmental policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions

supplier induced demand a disequilibrium test this paper tests the hypothesis of market disequilibrium and supplier induced demand in the market for physicians services using canadian data from the period prior to the introduction of national health insurance the results support the hypothesis of disequilibrium with rapid upward adjustment of fees in the face of excess demand and extremely slow downward adjustment of fees in response to excess supply they do not support the hypothesis that physicians induced demand in the face of an excess supply of services

carbon capture and storage and transboundary pollution a differential game approach abstract we study the strategic behavior of two countries facing transboundary co2 pollution under a differential game setting in our model the reduction of co2 concentration occurs through the carbon capture and storage process rather than through the adoption of cleaner technologies furthermore we first provide the explicit short run dynamics for this dynamic game with symmetric open loop and a special markovian nash strategy then we compare these strategies at the games steady states and along some balanced growth paths our results show that if the initial level of co2 is relatively high state dependent emissions reductions can lead to higher overall environmental quality hence feedback strategy leads to less social waste

natural disasters in a two sector model of endogenous growth using an endogenous growth model with physical and human capital accumulation this paper considers the sustainability of economic growth when the use of a polluting input e g fossil fuels intensifies the risk of capital destruction through natural disasters we find that growth is sustainable only if the tax rate on the polluting input increases over time the long term rate of economic growth follows an inverted v shaped curve relative to the growth rate of the environmental tax and it is maximized by the least aggressive tax policy of those that asymptotically eliminate the use of polluting inputs unavailability of insurance can accelerate or decelerate the growth maximizing speed of the tax increase depending on the relative significance of the risk premium and precautionary savings effects welfare is maximized under a milder environmental tax policy especially when the pollutants accumulate gradually

economic models for the environmental kuznets curve a survey abstract the environmental kuznets curve ekc refers to an inverted u shaped relationship between some pollutant level and per capita income i e the environmental quality deteriorates at early stages of economic growth and subsequently improves at a later stage since the early 1990s a considerable number of empirical studies have been conducted on the ekc and although there is no conclusive proof it has been recognized that the ekc emerges as an empirical regularity however some recent studies cast doubt on the concept and methodology of empirical results and evidence of the existence of the ekc has been questioned in fact how economic growth affects the environmental quality i e the shape of the ekc is still controversial in order to identify the actual relationship between the environmental quality and economic growth it is essential to develop economic models from various points of view this paper overviews the current stage of theoretical models that explain such relationship

sustainable growth and the environmental kuznets curve abstract this paper develops an endogenous growth model with pollution and both human and physical capital human capital is produced cleanly and physical capital can be used for pollution control economic growth is sustainable in the long run it is optimal for human capital to grow more rapidly than physical capital output and consumption while pollution declines for realistic parameter values our results differ sharply from stokey s result for an ak technology that sustained economic growth is not optimal the model can generate an environmental kuznets curve a pollution tax or a voucher system can implement the pareto efficiency solution

income and emission a panel data based cointegration analysis this paper presents the results of an investigation of the causality issue of incomeemission relationship based on time series econometric techniques of unit root test cointegration and related error correction model for a panel data set here the nature of causality between per capita co2 emission pcco2 and per capita gdp pcgdp has been examined using a cross country panel data set covering 88 countries for the period 1960 90 using the panel unit root test procedure of im et al 1997 ips we have found that the hypothesis of unit root i e non stationarity of the time series of pcgdp and pcco2 can not be rejected for individual country groups as both the variables are found to follow i 1 process we next have performed the panel data co integration test and finally we have estimated the ecm for these country groups for which significant income emission cointegration was obtained to explore the nature of dynamics implicit in the given panel data set our findings suggest that there is more or less a bi directional causal relationship between income pcgdp and co2 emission pcco2 for africa central america america as a whole eastern europe western europe europe as a whole and the world as a whole that means the movement of the one variable directly affects the other variable through a feedback system thus the policy makers should be cautious to make proper decision about the control of emission level

technical progress structural change and the environmental kuznets curve abstract the paper shows that under reasonable assumptions about technical progress a positive sustainable growth rate fails to exist the argument is that a growing part of income has to be spent for continuing technical progress in order to compensate the pollution effects of growth hence in the long run either the sustainability condition will be violated or the growth rate must decline to zero furthermore in finite time the level of wealth will decrease despite growing income and a constant pollution level thus further growth is no longer reasonable similar arguments also hold for the environmental effects of structural change favoring less pollution intensive economic activities an evolutionary change of goods and production technology may shift the limits of growth and is hence a prerequisite for a long run ekc

carbon prices for the next hundred years this paper examines the socially optimal pricing of carbon emissions over time when climate change impacts are unknown potentially high consequence events the carbon price tends to increase with income but learning about impacts or their absence decouples the carbon price from income growth the price should grow faster than the economy if the past warming is not substantial enough for learning the true long run social cost it grows slower than the economy as soon as the warming generates information about events that could have arrived but have not done so a quantitative assessment shows that the price grows roughly at the rate of the economy for the next 100 years

models as usual for unusual risks on the value of catastrophic climate change we study the role of alternative intertemporal preference representations in a model of economic growth stock pollutant and endogenous risk of catastrophic collapse we contrast the traditional discounted utility model which assumes risk neutrality with respect to intertemporal utility with a multiplicative choice model that displays risk aversion in that dimension first we show that both representations of preferences can rationalize the same business as usual economy for a given interest rate and no pollution externality second once we introduce a collapse risk whose hazard rate is a function of the pollution stock multiplicative preferences recommend a much more stringent policy response an illustration in the context of climate change indicates that switching to the multiplicative preference representation has a similar effect in terms of policy recommendations as scaling up the schedule of the hazard rate by a factor of 100

renewable resources in an endogenously growing economy balanced growth and transitional dynamics abstract we introduce a renewable resource sector into an endogenous growth model of a small economy deriving the transitional dynamic equilibrium the model generates a long run equilibrium in which a resource sector of limited size can coexist with constant ongoing growth elsewhere the key feature of the model is the allocation of labor between harvesting the resource and its use in the final output sector this naturally generates the empirically observed negative relationship between resource abundance and growth we examine both the dynamic and long run responses of the economy to various shocks pertaining to technological production conditions and resource sector parameters

the environmental kuznets curve and the structural change hypothesis we provide a very simple macroeconomic investigation of the role that structural changes might play in generating inverted u shaped income pollution relationships differently from previous research which mainly focuses on empirical static or general equilibrium models we develop a standard balanced growth path bgp analysis we show that along the bgp equilibrium an inverted u shaped income pollution relationship may occur as a response to structural changes but whether this is the case or not it will crucially depend upon the magnitude of a production externality parameter moreover we show that the negative relationship between income and pollution can only be a transitory phenomenon and in the long run pollution will increase as income rises generating overall an n shaped pattern

daily changes in fed funds futures prices this paper explores the properties of daily changes in the prices for near term fed funds futures contracts the paper finds these contracts to be excellent predictors of the fed funds rate and shows that the claim of a nonzero term premium in the short horizon contracts is more sensitive to outliers than previous research appears to have recognized i find some statistically significant evidence of serial correlation in the daily changes but this accounts for only a tiny part of the 1 day movements and there is essentially zero predictability for horizons longer than 1 day settlement futures prices for each day appear to incorporate the information embodied in that day s term structure of longer horizon treasury securities previous employment growth makes a statistically significant contribution to predicting futures price changes though again this could only account for a tiny part of the daily variance the paper concludes that futures prices provide a very useful measure of the daily changes in the market s expectation of near term changes in fed policy

threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between co2 and income the environmental kuznets curve in spain 1857 2007 abstract article history received 9 march 2011received in revised form 24 february 2012accepted 2 march 2012available online 14 march 2012jel classi cation c2q4keywords environmental kuznets curveco 2 emissionsnonlinear relationshipthreshold cointegration inthispaper wemodelthe long run relationship between per capita co 2 and per capita income for the spanisheconomy over the period 1857 2007 according to the environmental kuznets curve eck the relationshipbetween the two variables has an inverted u shape however previous studies for the spanish economy onlyconsidered the existence of linear relationships such an approach may lack exibility to detect the trueshape of the relationship our empirical methodology accounts for a possible non linear relationship throughthe use of threshold cointegration techniques our results con rm the non linearity of the link between thetwo above mentioned variables pointing to the existence of an environmental kuznets curve for the spanishcase 2012 elsevier b v all rights reserved

reassessing the environmental kuznets curve for co2 emissions a robustness exercise the number of studies seeking to empirically characterize the reduced form relationship between a country economic growth and the quantity of pollutants produced in the process has recently increased significantly in several cases researchers have found evidence pointing to an inverted u benvironmental kuznetsq curve in the case of co2 however the evidence is at best mixed in this paper we reconsider that evidence by assessing how robust it is when the analysis is conducted in a different parametric setup and when using alternative emissions data from the international energy agency relative to the literature our contribution can be viewed as a robustness exercise in these two respects the econometric results lead to two conclusions firstly published evidence on the ekc does not appear to depend upon the source of the data at least as far as carbon dioxide is concerned secondly when an alternative functional form is employed there is evidence of an inverted u pattern for the group of oecd countries with reasonable turning point regardless of the data set employed not so for non oecd countries as the ekc is basically increasing slowly concave according to the iea data and more bellshaped in the case of cdiac data d 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

taking the u out of kuznets a comprehensive analysis of the ekc and environmental degradation unlike most environmental kuznets curve ekc studies which focus on narrow measures of pollution as proxies for environmental quality we test the validity of the ekc using the ecological footprint ef a more comprehensive measure of environmental degradation we find no empirical evidence of an ekc relationship between the ef and economic development and only limited support for such a relationship among the components of the ef in addition we discover that energy is largely responsible for the lack of an ekc relationship and that energy consumption levels would have to be cut by over 50 in order for a statistically significant ekc relationship to emerge from the data overall these results suggest that growth alone will not lead to sustainable development

a nonparametric analysis of energy environmental kuznets curve in chinese provinces energy resources are an important material foundation for the survival and development of human society and the relationship between energy and economy is interactive and complementary this paper analyzes the energy consumption economic growth nexus in chinese provinces using novel and recent nonparametric time series as well as panel data empirical approaches the dataset covers 30 provinces over the period of 1980 2018 the empirical analysis indicates the presence of a nonlinear functional form and smooth structural changes in most of the provinces the nonparametric empirical analysis validates the presence of a nonlinear unit root problem in energy consumption and economic growth and nonlinear cointegration between the variables additionally the nonparametric panel cointegration test reports evidence of convergence in energy consumption and economic growth patterns across the provinces the nonparametric regression analysis finds economic growth to have a positive effect on average on energy consumption in all provinces except for beijing further the energy environmental kuznets curve exists between economic growth and energy consumption in 20 out of 30 chinese provinces the granger causality analysis reveals the presence of a mixed causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption the empirical findings have important implications for chinese authorities in planning for improving energy efficiency decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption and reducing the environmental footprint of provinces

strategic behavior of federal open market committee board members evidence from members forecasts abstract in this paper we use panel data to test whether federal open market committee fomc board members forecasts are rational rationality is rejected in the sense that forecasts by members are heavily dependent on previous own forecasts and last consensus made in fomc furthermore we reveal the strategic behavior of fomc board members forecasts by governors who always have voting rights agree much with the previous consensus of fomc members forecasts in contrast non governors who rotate voting rights exaggerate their forecasts they aggressively deviate their forecasts from previous consensus the former is herding behavior and the latter is anti herding behavior our results imply that individual members behave strategically governors want to present policy consistent forecasts to the congress and non governors utilize their forecasts to influence decision making in fomc

is trade good or bad for the environment sorting out the causality we seek to contribute to the debate over globalization and the environment by asking what is the effect of trade on a country s environment for a given level of gdp we take specific account of the endogeneity of trade using exogenous geographic determinants of trade as instrumental variables we find that trade tends to reduce three measures of air pollution statistical significance is high for concentrations of so2 moderate for no2 and lacking for particulate matter although results for other environmental measures are not as encouraging there is little evidence that trade has a detrimental effect on the environment

climate change policy what do the models tell us very little a plethora of integrated assessment models iams have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon scc and evaluate alternative abatement policies these models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis certain inputs e g the discount rate are arbitrary but have huge effects on the scc estimates the models produce the models descriptions of the impact of climate change are completely ad hoc with no theoretical or empirical foundation and the models can tell us nothing about the most important driver of the scc the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome iam based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision but that perception is illusory and misleading jel c51 q54 q58

north south trade and industry specific pollutants abstract this paper investigates the production and pollution patterns arising from trade between high and low income countries when firms discharge industry specific pollutants we extend the common pollutant model of copeland and taylor north south trade and the environment quart j econ 109 1994 755 787 to incorporate industry specific pollutants and obtained a diversified equilibrium which differs markedly from the complete specialization equilibrium obtained in the original model with diversified production individual countries shares of production and emissions change in a flexible manner reflecting the competitiveness of their products in the world market this result makes it easier for empirical studies to test the theoretical relationships between industrial production emissions and the different attributes of countries including income and factor endowment despite the striking difference in the equilibrium patterns of production and emissions the prediction of the pollution haven hypothesis is retained and pollution intensive industries relocate to south finally a composite of pollutants weighted by disutilities increases in south and decreases in north

environmental policy and growth when inputs are differentiated in pollution intensity environmental policy affects the distribution of market shares if intermediate goods are differentiated in their pollution intensity when innovations are environment friendly a tax on emissions skews demand towards new goods which are the most productive in this case the tax has to increase along a balanced growth path to keep the market shares of goods of different vintages constant comparing balanced growth paths we find that tightening the policy stance spurs innovation because it increases the market share of recent vintages and promotes environment friendly technological progress as a result the cost of environmental policy in terms of slower growth is weaker

efficient dynamic pollution taxation in an uncertain environment this paper analyzes efficient pollution taxation within a stochastic model of endogenous growth pollution is a by product of production and causes disutility furthermore the productivity which results from environmental quality is uncertain this reflects e g uncertain capital depreciation induced by natural disasters like hurricanes or floods this uncertainty is shown to raise an ambiguous impact on the optimal pollution level as well as on optimal environmental taxation market equilibrium turns out to be suboptimal since the households mis perceive their individual impact on pollution conditions for welfare maximizing pollution taxation are stated and it is shown that a direct pollution tax is not appropriate to yield pareto optimal growth instead a linear capital income tax together with a linear abatement subsidy build an efficient tax scheme if secondarily the governmental budget is balanced moreover an increase in the riskiness of environmental productivity may even lead to an increase in the optimal pollution level and to a decrease in optimal environmental taxation depending predominantly on the preference parameters

reexamining the empirical evidence for an environmental kuznets curve this paper uses an updated and revised panel data set on ambient air pollution in cities worldwide to examine the robustness of the evidence for the existence of an inverted u shaped relationship between national income and pollution we test the sensitivity of the pollution income relationship to functional forms to additional covariates and to changes in the nations cities and years sampled we find that the results are highly sensitive to these changes and conclude that there is little empirical support for an inverted u shaped relationship between several important air pollutants and national income in these data

identification of physician induced demand whether market failure exists in the health care sector because physicians induce demand in their own self interest has not been clearly addressed because of identification problems a model is developed which includes the patient s financial burden as a limiting factor on demand inducement new data from a national survey are used to test the demand inducement hypothesis and identify physician initiated expenditures when individual health insurance and other factors are held constant additional corroboration of the physician induced demand hypothesis is found but the magnitude of the effect is very small and is statistically significant only for more discretionary expenditures

futures prices as risk adjusted forecasts of monetary policy many researchers have used federal funds futures rates as measures of financial markets expectations of future monetary policy however to the extent that federal funds futures reflect risk premia these measures require some adjustment in this paper we document that excess returns on federal funds futures have been positive on average and strongly countercyclical in particular excess returns are surprisingly well predicted by macroeconomic indicators such as employment growth and financial business cycle indicators such as treasury yield spreads and corporate bond spreads excess returns on eurodollar futures display similar patterns we document that simply ignoring these risk premia significantly biases forecasts of the future path of monetary policy we also show that risk premia matter for some futures based measures of monetary policy shocks used in the literature

the environmental kuznets curve semi parametrically revisited this paper re examines the existence of an environmental kuznets curve ekc across countries using a semi parametric regression estimator which places no restrictions on the functional form our results using cross country panel data on sulfur and carbon dioxide strongly suggest that the relationship between wealth and environmental degradation is not bell shaped as suggested by an ekc rather that there is a positive link for the very poorest countries and no clear relationship for richer countries

are there increasing returns to pollution abatement empirical analytics of the environmental kuznets curve in pesticides abstract according to the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis economic growth and the reduction of environmental degradation are compatible goals an inverted u shaped relationship between economic performance and environmental pollution suggests that empirically an economy is associated with smaller levels of pollution after some threshold income point one potential explanation for the empirical evidence of an ekc is increasing returns to pollution abatement where the abatement efficiency rises with an increase in the scale of abatement doubling the clean up efforts more than doubles the abatement of pollution as this efficiency gain makes abatement less expensive pollution might fall as more abatement is undertaken this study tests the hypothesis that there are increasing returns to abating pollution empirical evidence on environmental risks in the us agricultural sector since 1970 support the existence of increasing returns in addition i estimate the productivity of pollution abatement using refined empirical productivity measurement methods and explicitly control the level of technology the results show the importance of including an environmental productivity variable in the ekc framework

does air pollution aggravate income inequality in china an empirical analysis based on the view of health abstract given the rapid development of the chinese economy especially its accelerated urbanization air pollution and income inequality as two of the most important global issues have also become hot topics in china however limited attention has been devoted to understanding their joint evolution in the literature in this study we thus investigate the relationship between them using a multi level nested data model which enables us to estimate the long run distribution effect of air pollution on individuals of different socioeconomic statuses based on china s city level pm2 5 emissions and individual level income we further examine the mechanisms behind the evolution using a 3sls model the estimation results reveal that the increase in air pollution concentration has short term positive production effects and long term negative impacts on individual income and will exacerbate the income inequality across socioeconomic statuses individuals of lower socioeconomic status have disadvantages in achieving efficient avoiding knowledge and measures the results of 3sls model confirm the existence of the health channel through which air pollution exerts influence on income inequality these results provide a roadmap for policymakers first a comprehensive assessment of the health burden distribution from air pollution on individuals of different socioeconomic statuses should be considered for environmental policymaking second the regional disparities and differences among income groups should also be considered during this process third equal access to basic public services should be the primary target of environmental regulations moreover compensation and assistance for the health issues caused by environmental pollution could be an important supplement to these regulations future study could do further analysis of the specific level of health burden due to different types of pollutants and their relationship with income inequality

climate change and uneven development in this paper using a theoretical model with endogenous capital depreciation we study the effects of climate change and adaptation on long run development we show that climate change affects economic growth depending on climate exposure and adaptation efficiency which are asymmetric between different countries poor countries are likely to be hurt more because of the negative effects of climate change on the rate of depreciation of the assets that represent the engine of growth these asymmetries generally induce growth deficits and unsustainability traps in less developed economies

a tradable permit system in an intertemporal economy it is known that in an intertemporal competitive economy a tradable permit system may not achieve efficiency without setting appropriate permit interest rates i e rewards for holding permits to find the rates however we need to know in advance the path of efficient permit prices which is difficult to obtain this study intends to solve this problem in two ways first we analyze a special case in which the permit interest rates are given by a simple rule for example if the marginal abatement cost of pollution emission is constant then the appropriate rate is to equal the monetary interest rate as is the case for global warming if the damage is caused in the future far beyond the planning period of the environmental program the appropriate rate coincides with the marginal self recovery of environmental stock under certain conditions as a second approach we propose a tradable permit system with a permit bank as a mechanism by which the permit interest rates are generated endogenously without governmental intervention other than the issuance of permits however we also show that this approach raises the problem of indeterminacy of the equilibrium

drivers of industrial and non industrial greenhouse gas emissions abstract though there has been extensive analysis of the drivers of aggregate carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production there has been much less analysis of the drivers of greenhouse gases in general and especially of aggregate emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture forestry and other land uses which we call non industrial emissions in this paper we statistically analyze the relationship between both industrial and non industrial greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth and other potential drivers for 129 countries over the period from 1971 to 2010 our analysis combines the three main approaches in the literature into a single framework for investigating the evolution of emissions and income we find that economic growth is a driver of both industrial and non industrial emissions though economic growth has twice the effect on industrial emissions the time effect is negative for both sources of emissions though this effect is larger for non industrial emissions there is also convergence in emissions intensity for both types of emissions but given these other effects there is no evidence for an environmental kuznets curve

total factor productivity and the environmental kuznets curve a comment and some intuition abstract chimeli and braden chimeli ariaster b braden john b 2005 total factor productivity and the environmental kuznets curve journal of environmental economics and management 49 366 380 derive a necessary and sufficient condition under which inter country differences in total factor productivity can yield an environmental kuznets curve they argue that their results emphasize the importance of differences in total factor productivity across countries as well as the need for decreasing returns to scale in pollution abating technologies for the existence of an environmental kuznets curve we show that their proposition 1 is equivalent to proposition 2 in lieb lieb christoph m 2002 the environmental kuznets curve and satiation a simple static model environment and development economics 7 429 448 this implies that even in chimeli and braden s model contemporaneous changes in the marginal rate of substitution between environmental quality and consumption on the demand side and the marginal rate of transformation between these goods on the supply side drive the pollution income relationship this is a very general condition that does not rely on either differences in total factor productivity or decreasing returns to scale in abatement and which is widely applicable

assessing income population and technology impacts on co2 emissions in canada where s the ekc abstract this study investigates the macroeconomic forces underlying carbon dioxide co2 emissions from fossil fuel use in canada in keeping with the relevant literature on environmental degradation three forces are expected to influence co2 emissions gross domestic product per capita gdp capita population and technological change while previous work has employed reduced form models that allow for non linear relationships between co2 and gdp capita it has been common practice to assume linear relationships between co2 and the latter two variables this study tests a more flexible model using a five region panel data set in canada over the period 1970 2000 findings indicate that gdp capita is unrelated to co2 that an inverted u shaped relationship exists with population and that a u shaped relationship exists with technology thus technological and population changes are supported over the commonly hypothesized environmental kuznets curve an inverted u shaped relationship between gdp capita and environmental degradation for affecting co2 emissions from fossil fuel use in canada

polluting non renewable resources and growth in an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation we introduce non renewable resources which cause flow pollution problems in this set up the negative external effect of pollution on productivity does not cause any distortions in the economy the market economy will achieve the optimal extraction and growth rates consequently emission taxes are unnecessary and when introduced will have no effect on the economy the more important is the negative pollution externality the larger will be the optimal long run growth rate which may be either positive or negative in the case of a positive human capital externality consumption in the market economy may approach zero in the long run although positive consumption growth is socially optimal growth enhancing policies do not necessarily cause a larger drain in the resource stock

on a clear day you might see an environmental kuznets curve we shed some new light on the environmental kuznets curve ekc and show how it can be viewed as a particular form of equilibrium relationship where technology and preference parameters determine the shape of the curve in contrast to most of the literature on the ekc we estimate a theoretically consistent model on long run data swedish sulfur emission covering the period 1900 2002 furthermore we test and date structural change the model suggests four regimes 1900 1918 1919 1933 1934 1967 and 1968 2002 generating four rather different patterns for pollution over time the policy conclusions are consonant with pearce s general view about the ekc there is no theoretical presumption that it has an inverted u shape nor should any country try to grow out of the environmental problems without analyzing the benefits and costs of so doing

identifying reduced form relations with panel data the case of pollution and income abstract in this paper we propose a solution to the non robustness that plagues the estimation of inverted u shaped relationships using panel data such as the relation between pollution and income when dependent and independent variable like pollution and income are both time related separating the effect of the independent variable from time effects brings about a fundamental identification dilemma the imposition of restrictions on the controls might drive the shape of the relationship between the dependent pollution and independent income variables our solution consists of imposing the very weak constraint that arbitrary cross sectional units have the same relationship we apply our methodology to two widely studied cases namely so 2 and co 2 emissions interestingly our estimates are insensitive to the required subjective choices but also strongly differ from the literature so far we find consistent positive income effects for both cases and time effect estimates with a clear u shaped trend for so 2 emissions but only slightly so for co 2 emissions

determinants of co2 emissions in a small open economy abstract the aim of the paper is to explore the relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide co2 emissions for a small open and industrialized country austria we test whether an environmental kuznets curve relationship also holds for a single country rather than concentrating on panel or cross section data for a set of countries a cubic i e n shaped relationship between gdp and co2 emissions is found to fit the data most appropriately for the period 1960 1999 and a structural break is identified in the mid seventies due to the oil price shock furthermore two variables are additionally significant import shares reflecting the well known pollution haven hypothesis and the share of the tertiary service sector of total production gdp accounting for structural changes in the economy emission projections derived from this single country specification support the widely held opinion that significant policy changes are asked for when implementing the kyoto protocol in order to bring about a downturn in future carbon emissions

swedish co2 emissions 1900 2010 an exploratory note abstract this paper projects swedish co 2 emissions during the period 2000 2010 based on data covering 1900 1999 swedish climate policy is currently based on the assumption that carbon emissions will increase ceteris paribus by 5 15 relative to the 1990 level this forecast has motivated a number of policy measures including carbon taxes subsidies and an information package we find however that co 2 emissions may well be lower in the future this outcome is broadly consistent with the literature on the environmental kuznets curve which portrays the relationship between emissions and gdp the key contribution of this paper is that our analysis is based on a long time series current literature is invariably based on short panel data sets while we study a single country through several phases of development our analysis also sheds some light on the key importance played by nuclear power for carbon emission projections

the interaction of population growth and environmental quality an important question for policy is whether holding constant per capita income and other relevant factors population pressures have a significant effect upon environmental degradation the authors examine the effect of population pressures upon deforestation in 64 developing countries in an attempt to provide relevant empirical findings data on deforestation were drawn from the food and agriculture organizations production yearbook results suggest that a relationship exists between per capita income and deforestation and that for africa rural population density shifts the relationship upward the increase in the rate of deforestation levels off as income increases the rate of growth in per capita income also has a significant negative impact upon deforestation although the magnitude of the effect is small the authors close in stressing that reducing the rate of population growth is not necessarily the best way to reduce the rate of deforestation deforestation in developing countries is really a problem of market failure since property rights are often neither defined nor enforced there is essentially no private cost of deforestation with no long term stake in the land people have no incentive to use land efficiently this situation must be addressed in conjunction with the problems of poverty and population growth

economic development and the energy intensity of human well being evidence from the gcc countries abstract this paper empirically investigates the effect of economic development on the energy intensity of human well being eiwb in the gulf cooperation council gcc during the period 1995 2012 we employ a time series cross sectional prais winsten regression model with panel corrected standard errors pcse we conclude that economic development has had a significant positive impact on eiwb during the period 1995 2012 the results indicate that the stress on the environment had increased in a noticeable manner from 1995 until 2006 however over the period 2007 2012 the stress went back to the level observed in 1995 this observation is unfortunate from the perspective sustainable economics

scarcity growth and r d abstract the limits to economic growth due to resource scarcity can be alleviated only by the development of backstop substitutes this paper combines resource based economic growth with r d to reduce the cost of backstop technologies characterizing the entire dynamics of optimal growth and r d processes we find that an economy s growth prospects depend on its type as determined by its production technology and learning ability and by its knowledge capital endowment a wide variety of growth patterns emerges ranging from cases in which an economy that without r d eventually stagnates converges to a steady state is diverted by r d onto a path of sustained growth to cases in which r d is not warranted resource scarcity is shown to encourage r d due to the increased reliance on the backstop technology

the environmental kuznets curve cointegration and nonlinearity this paper clarifies some conceptual shortcomings of the empirical environmental kuznets curve ekc literature that arise because of the hitherto inadequate application of unit root and cointegration techniques the literature to date has ignored the fact and a fortiori the consequences that powers of integrated processes are themselves not integrated processes the paper explains why standard methods should not be applied and discusses some recently proposed viable estimation and testing approaches for cointegrating polynomial regressions the application to co2 and so2 emissions data shows that using appropriate methods leads to strongly reduced evidence for a cointegrating ekc compared to typical but conceptually not sound findings

smooth transition pollution income paths abstract we explore the idea of regime switching as a new methodological approach in the analysis of the emission income relationship the basic idea is that when some threshold is passed the economy could move smoothly to another regime with the emission income relationship being different between the old and the new regime the methodology is applied to a panel dataset of us state level sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions sulfur dioxide emissions are found to smoothly peak at a relatively late stage of economic development and then smoothly decrease at high levels of income however for the nitrogen oxide emissions environmental pressure tends to rise with economic growth then slows down but does not decline with further growth

environment kuznets curve for co2 emissions a cointegration analysis for china abstract this study examines the long run relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of china by employing time series data of 1975 2005 in particular the study aims at testing whether environmental kuznets curve ekc relationship between co 2 emissions and per capita real gdp holds in the long run or not auto regressive distributed lag ardl methodology is employed for empirical analysis a quadratic relationship between income and co 2 emission has been found for the sample period supporting ekc relationship the results of granger causality tests indicate one way causality runs through economic growth to co 2 emissions the results of this study also indicate that the carbon emissions are mainly determined by income and energy consumption in the long run trade has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on co 2 emissions

is china at the tipping point reconsidering environment economy nexus abstract environmental kuznets curve ekc has become the predominant approach between environmentalists and sociologists to modeling environment economy nexus during the past quarter century also with regard to china the largest industrial pollutant emitter in the world where unprecedented change offers a unique approach to the aggregate emissions in the case of china the question is whether a tipping point can be reached without de industrialization and at a lower income phase than in developed economies it is also the worldwide intrinsic concern of environment economy nexus in the prospective industrialization process of developing countries however china relative researches involve some existing challenges such as cross regional time series various socioeconomic drivers and turning thresholds taking the new normal china economy formulation into consideration a rethink and reexamination of the environment economy relationship was performed using the longest possible environmental and economic data from 30 provincial economies for the period of 1985 2017 different from the existing mostly time series based china ekc literature not only the llc ips fisher unit root tests pedroni and kao panel cointegration tests and the panel ols are used but the problem of cross sectional dependence is handled in panel unit root tests across various cross economies and the error correction based cointegration test is employed allowing for various forms of heterogeneity robust against the cross sectional dependence and the dols estimators are applied to resolve the standard ols for serial correlation and for endogeneity of regressors especially in only small possible china samples in particular the finding contrasts with the overly optimistic research of certain scholars who state that china could be on a clearly different path from the routes of some developed economies in the world realizing the environmental turnaround at low levels of economy and industrialization china economy is not just having a certain environmental dividend effect but mainly faces a more significant environmental pressure effect environmental input and its efficiency is still insufficient to perform the intended pollution reduction effects fundamentally the environmental investment as a proportion of gdp should reach the past levels of some developed economies in the similar pollution economy phase

intra industry trade in intermediate products pollution and internationally increasing returns this paper examines the relationship between intra industry trade in intermediate products pollution and increasing returns we develop a two country model in which production occurs in two stages final and intermediate good production intermediate goods are produced under monopolistic competition and final good production exhibits increasing returns with respect to the number of varieties of intermediates pollution occurs in the production of the final good when polluting intermediates are used we analyze the effects of international trade in intermediate products on pollution output and welfare under an endogenous tax scenario and with two types of pollution functions the results show that because of increasing returns international trade either leads to lower total pollution in each country or lower pollution per unit of output in at least one country in addition intra industry trade causes countries to import the environmental quality of their trading partners

green attitude and economic growth we analyze the interdependence between green attitude and equilibrium development of environmental quality in an endogenous growth model individuals take only part of their impact on pollution into account hence there is a negative externality of capital accumulation on environmental quality increasing wealth or increasing pollution enhance green attitude and reduce the externality because individuals care more about the environment if their income is higher or if pollution is more obvious the time path of pollution as well as the evolution of equilibrium growth are shown to depend crucially on the determinants of green attitude ongoing growth may lead to complete internalization of the environmental externality if green attitude improves with increasing wealth e g as a consequence of an increase in environmental education in contrast if green attitude is determined exclusively by the level of environmental quality pollution remains at a suboptimally high level the interdependence of wealth and pollution in the determination of environmental awareness implies more complex dynamics capital growth enhances green attitude and thereby decreases pollution improved environmental quality in turn may increase capital growth due to less green attitude and therefore slow down convergence to the sustainable balanced growth path

market based measures of monetary policy expectations a number of recent articles have used different financial market instruments to measure near term expectations of the federal funds rate and the high frequency changes in these instruments around federal open market committee announcements to measure monetary policy shocks this article evaluates the empirical success of a variety of financial market instruments in predicting the future path of monetary policy all of the instruments we consider provide forecasts that are clearly superior to those of standard time series models at all of the horizons considered among financial market instruments we find that federal funds futures dominate all the other securities in forecasting monetary policy at horizons out to six months for longer horizons the predictive power of many of the instruments we consider is very similar in addition we present evidence that monetary policy shocks computed using the current month federal funds futures contract are influenced by changes in the timing of policy actions tha

a tale of two elasticities a general theoretical framework for the environmental kuznets curve analysis abstract we show that a variety of seemingly diverse concepts used to theoretically explaining the ekc have a common origin in two key preference and production elasticities we also prove that they jointly correspond to a unique underlying preference technology theoretical framework

voting for pollution policy the importance of income inequality and openness to trade abstract this paper analyzes how openness and the distribution of factor ownership interact to determine individual and aggregate demand for pollution policy analysis of voter preferences in autarky shows that an increased stake in either the dirty or the clean industry can induce an individual voter to prefer stricter environmental policy similarly the paper shows that poorer voters may be the greener voters within an electorate the model also reveals that the incidence of pollution policy depends upon a country s trade regime with consequences for the direction in which income inequality influences aggregate demand for pollution policy

the vaccination kuznets curve do vaccination rates rise and fall with income abstract this paper presents a new stylized fact about the relationship between income and childhood vaccination it shows vaccination rates first rise but then fall as income increases this pattern is observed in who country level panel data and in us county level panel and individual level repeated cross section data this data pattern suggests that both low and high income parents are less likely to follow the standard vaccination schedule and that such behavior is reflected in the vaccination rate at the population level i provide several alternative explanations as to why we observe this data pattern including avoidance measures medical care and social segregation

no regret pollution abatement options a correction of brechet and jouvet 2009 in why environmental management may yield no regret pollution abatement options ecological economics 2009 brechet and jouvet claim to have theoretically shown that profits maximizing firms can reduce pollution compared to laissez faire and increase their profits we correct multiple errors in their paper with the conclusion that their claim no longer stands

macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters in the presence of principal agent problems published macroeconomic forecasts by professional economists may not measure expectations forecasters may use their forecasts in order to manipulate beliefs about their ability i test a cross sectional implication of models of reputation and information revelation i find that as forecasters become older and more established they produce more radical forecasts since these more radical forecasts are in general less accurate ex post forecast accuracy grows significantly worse as forecasters become older and more established these findings are consistent with reputational factors at work in professional macroeconomic forecasts

trade openness and the environmental kuznets curve evidence from chinese cities this paper examines the impact of economic growth and trade openness on environment in 261 chinese cities over the period of 2004 2013 using recently developed continuously updated fully modified method which allows for both cross sectional dependence and endogeneity two types of pollutants industrial waste water and sulphur dioxide are investigated and three measures of openness are employed in the regression from the results we find that the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis holds not only for the whole china but also in different regions it is estimated that wastewater pollution increases with economic development until per capita gdp reaching the turning point of 42 991 48 828 yuan in constant 2002 price which varies depending on the specific measure of trade openness the turning point for sulphur dioxide is found to occur at a much lower income level around 9 588 10 663 yuan per capita gdp furthermore export is mostly found to be positively related with pollution and the impact of import is likely to be negative for both the whole china and across regions if the significance is identified in the estimation results

common trends in economic activity and metals demand cointegration and the intensity of use debate abstract this research examines whether a long run stationary equilibrium relationship holds between aggregate income and consumption of various primary industrial metals using the theory of cointegrated processes it is possible to determine if metals consumption and income follow a common stochastic trend or whether the two variables tend to randomly drift apart over time little evidence is found to support the presence of a long run equilibrium relationship between income and metals consumption given this result researchers interested in estimation and inference based on reduced form structural or forecasting models of metals demand should be aware that standard econometric techniques may lead to false conclusions

forecasting efficiency concepts and applications this article introduces the concept of forecast efficiency in which the forecast contains all information available at the time of the forecast empirical tests investigate weak efficiency where the information set is all past forecasts and where all forecast revisions and errors should be uncorrelated with past forecast revisions tests of macroeconomic energy consumption and oil price forecasts find a significant autocorrelation of forecast revisions with fifty of fifty one tests showing positive correlation of forecast revisions as opposed to zero correlation consistent with forecast efficiency copyright 1987 by mit press

multiple equilibria in a stochastic implementation of dice with abrupt climate change abstract integrated assessment modeling of global climate change has focused primarily on gradually occurring changes in the climate system however atmospheric and earth scientists have become increasingly concerned that the climate system may be subject to abrupt discontinuous changes on short time scales and that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions could trigger such shifts incorporating this type of climate dynamics into economic or integrated assessment models can result in model non convexity and multiple equilibria and thus complicate policy analysis relative to models with unique globally optimal policies using a version of the nordhaus dice model amended in previous research by keller et al 2004 keller klaus benjamin m bolker david f bradford 2004 uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth journal of environmental economics and management 48 1 723 741 in conjunction with a stochastic global optimization algorithm we generate level sets of solutions which helps identify multiple equilibria resulting from the potential abrupt cessation of the north atlantic thermohaline circulation we discuss the implications of this model geometry for formulating greenhouse gas abatement policy under uncertainty and suggest that this general approach may be useful for addressing a wide range of model non convexities including those related to endogenous technological change

stoking the fires co2 emissions and economic growth abstract we examine the relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide emissions a greenhouse gas central to global warming predictions estimates derived from global panel data suggest a diminishing marginal propensity to emit mpe carbon dioxide as gdp per capita rises despite this global carbon dioxide emissions growth will continue at 1 8 percent per annum for the foreseeable future a result that is not sensitive to average output growth instead emissions growth continues because output and population will grow most rapidly in lower income nations with high mpes this latter feature emphasizes the distributional consequences of policies to reduce emissions

transboundary externalities in the environmental transition hypothesis the environmental kuznets curve ekc is a hypothesis which implies that it is possible to grow out of environmental degradation most theoretical models of the ekc relation have not accounted for transboundary and intergenerational externalities nor have empirical studies provided evidence that validates an inverted u shaped relation between environmental degradation and economic growth for pollution problems where the effects are far displaced or are long delayed

financial markets forecasts revisited are they rational stubborn or jumpy this paper evaluates professional forecasters behavior using a panel data of individual forecasts we find that i professional forecasts are behavioral and ii there exists a stock bond dissonance the forecasting behavior seems to be stubborn in the stock market but jumpy in the bond market even in the same country forecasting behavior is quite different by market

exploring the environmental kuznets hypothesis theoretical and econometric problems focussing on the prime example of co2 emissions we discuss several important theoretical and econometric problems that arise when studying environmental kuznets curves ekcs an ekc refers to an inverse u shaped relationship between a pollutant and economic activity the dominant theoretical approach is given by integrated assessment modelling which consists of economic models that are combined with environmental impact models we critically evaluate the aggregation model dynamics and calibration aspects and their implications for the validity of the results we then turn to a discussion of several important econometric problems that go almost unnoticed in the literature the most fundamental problems relate to nonlinear transformations of nonstationary regressors and in a nonstationary panel context to neglected cross sectional dependence we discuss the implications of these two major and some minor problems that arise in the econometric analysis of kuznets curves our discussion shows that ekc modelling as performed to date is subject to major drawbacks at both the theoretical and the econometric level

using survey data to correct the bias in policy expectations extracted from fed funds futures many studies estimate risk premiums on federal funds futures to extract monetary policy expectations by assuming that average forecast errors of the expectations are zero or that survey forecasts are good proxies for the expectations these assumptions however may fail due to an unanticipated declining trend in the federal funds rate and to survey respondents strategic behavior consequently the premiums estimated under these assumptions may be biased we propose a new method to estimate the premiums and find that the premiums have been often negative since 2000 which is generally consistent with the negative betas observed in the 2000s

the environmental kuznets curve and equilibrium indeterminacy abstract we illustrate that the existence of the environmental kuznets curve ekc could be the result of indeterminacy of equilibria in a simple neoclassical growth model with a single environmental externality in households utility function and with public abatement we characterize the condition on the parameters in preferences and in the pollution technology leading to local indeterminacy of equilibrium estimates of the crucial parameters of the model using data from economies that display the ekc satisfy the theoretical indeterminacy condition we find that the presence of abatement activities is not a necessary condition for indeterminacy equilibria and hence an ekc to arise on the other hand non separability of consumption and pollution in the utility function is crucial

why are professional forecasters biased agency versus behavioral explanations professional forecasters may not simply aim to minimize expected squared forecast errors in models with repeated forecasts the pattern of forecasts reveals valuable information about the forecasters even before the outcome is realized rational forecasters will compromise between minimizing errors and mimicking prediction patterns typical of able forecasters simple models based on this argument imply that forecasts are biased in the direction of forecasts typical of able forecasters our models of strategic bias are rejected empirically as forecasts are biased in directions typical of forecasters with large mean squared forecast errors this observation is consistent with behavioral explanations of forecast bias

output emissions and technology some thoughts abstract the principal goal of this article is to identify the implications of a binding emission constraint on a firm s optimal capital labor ratio and to determine whether it is appropriate to write a firm s production function as an increasing function of its emissions alone i find that even though a firm s supply curve may be written as a positive function of its emissions it is not appropriate to write the production technology as an increasing function of only its emissions except under special circumstances

are there limits to growth a simple theoretical model of pollution is developed that generates an inverted u shape relationship between per capita income and environmental quality this model is then used to study long run growth the same inverted u shape is shown to appear in time series and the prospects for sustained growth are shown to hinge on whether increasingly strict environmental regulation is compatible with a constant rate of return on capital implementation is also studied tax and voucher schemes are shown to have an advantage over direct regulation because they provide the correct incentives for capital accumulation copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the optimal timing of adoption of a green technology we study the optimal timing of adoption of a cleaner technology and its effects on the rate of growth of an economy in the context of an ak endogenous growth model we show that the results depend upon the behavior of the marginal utility of environmental quality with respect to consumption when it is increasing we derive the capital level at the optimal timing of adoption we show that this capital threshold is independent of the initial conditions on the stock of capital implying that capital poor countries tend to take longer to adopt also country specific characteristics as the existence of high barriers to adoption may lead to different capital thresholds for different countries if the marginal utility of environmental quality decreases with consumption a country should never delay adoption the optimal policy is either to adopt immediately or if adoption costs are too high to never adopt the policy implications of these results are discussed in the context of the international debate surrounding the environmental political agenda

pollution income dynamics this paper integrates the scale composition and technique effects of economic growth on pollution using a multi output endogenous growth framework under certain empirically verifiable parameter conditions economic growth is not sustainable even under an optimal pollution tax

towards an integrated framework for development and environment policy the dynamics of environmental kuznets curves abstract environmental kuznets curves ekcs have recently received considerable attention in development and environment policy but little is known on how the interaction between ecological and economic factors may result in an ekc or other qualitatively different outcomes we introduce a restricted class of vector valued differential equations for representing the evolution of socioeconomic and environmental variables which influence or are influenced by the process of economic development our model includes not only the complete path of each variable over time but also the highly critical interactions among multiple variables we demonstrate analytically and numerically that among a multiplicity of possible outcomes an inverted u pattern can only be obtained under specific circumstances and requires attention to the multiple factors which form the economic environmental system rather than a single dominant one

on impatience economic growth and the environmental kuznets curve a dynamic analysis of resource management the paper presents a dynamic analysis of natural resource management and investigates some key factors that affect optimal management and resource conservation using a recursive specification of time preferences we show how endogenous discounting and impatience can affect the motivation for both capital investments and environmental preservation we examine the relationships between economic growth and environmental quality endogenous discounting provides new insights in the economic dynamics underlying the environmental kuznets curve by treating growth as endogenous we examine how externalities and economic growth interact with each other we investigate how economic development can contribute to an increased demand for environmental preservation as an important new result we also show how poverty can contribute to environmental degradation

status concern and the exploitation of common pool renewable resources we examine the impact of social status concern in a common pool renewable resource oligopoly a small number of players share access to a common pool resource and sell their production in a common market where they are oligopolists we depart from the mainstream literature on common pool resource oligopolies by considering that each player cares about her social status we allow for two channels to impact a player s welfare harvest and profits under the first channel a player has a bump in her utility when her harvest is larger than the average harvest of the rest of the players in this case we show that the presence of this channel exacerbates the tragedy of the commons under the second channel a player enjoys a bump in her utility if she manages to earn more profits than the average profits of the other players in this case we show that social status concern may temporarily alleviate the tragedy of the commons it results in a decrease of extraction over an interval of stock sizes

revisiting the relation between economic growth and the environment a global assessment of deforestation pollution and carbon emission abstract the un s sustainable development goals for 2030 aim on one hand at inclusive growth and eradicating poverty and on the other at preserving environments the relation between development and the environment has been studied extensively since the 1990s documenting inverted u shaped relations between per capita income and indicators of environmental degradation this paper revisits the issue with machine learning techniques and novel disaggregate data to model these relationships heterogeneously across economic indicators results suggest that development gradually improves the efficiency of consuming the earth s nonrenewable resources but increased efficiency alone is not sufficient to offset growth in scale development shifts reliance on one nonrenewable source to another and on average we find successive inverted u shapes in deforestation air pollution and carbon intensities followed by a j shape in per capita carbon output local economic circumstances further determine the shape amplitude and location of tipping points in environmental output the general implications of the estimated dynamics are explored by extrapolating environmental output to 2030 under simplistic scenario s the results are a reminder that immediate and sustained global efforts are required to preserve our environment