business cycle analysis with a markov switching model this article explores the hamilton markov switching model through an analysis of the business cycles of eight developed market economies forecasting and specification tests suggest only marginal improvements over linear autoregressive models yet filtered and smoothed conditional probabilities indicate turning points in business cycles that closely correlate with turning points from traditional methods tests regarding the asymmetry of business cycles reject the null of symmetry for most countries

policy concertation in europe understanding government choice this article focuses on the european governments decision to involve unions and employers in the design and implementation of public policy based on new measures of the phenomenon the authors argue that between 1974 and 2003 no convergence on a pluralist model of policy formation is visible they then use these measures to identify and analyze the clearest cases of adoption or demise of concertation namely the contrasting responses of the british and irish governments to wage policy and of the austrian and italian governments to pension reform they argue that governments are willing to share their policy making prerogatives when they are politically weak and when unions while still representing a credible threat to policy implementation have been declining in the recent past a combination of partisanship and policy learning reinforces the push for change

the economics of smallholder organic contract farming in tropical africa summary the paper examines the revenue effects of certified organic contract farming for smallholders and of adoption of organic agricultural farming methods in a tropical african context the comparison in both cases is with farming systems that are organic by default survey data from a large organic coffee contract farming scheme in uganda are reported and analyzed using a standard ols regression and a full information maximum likelihood fiml estimate of the heckman selection model the analysis finds that controlling for a range of factors there are positive revenue effects both from participation in the scheme and more modestly from applying organic farming techniques

is there a future for small farms small farms are seriously challenged today in ways that make their future precarious marketing chains are changing and becoming more integrated and more demanding of quality and food safety this is creating new opportunities for farmers who can compete and link to these markets but threatens to leave many others behind in developing countries small farmers also face unfair competition from rich country farmers in many of their export and domestic markets the viability of many is further undermined by the continuing shrinkage of their average farm size and the spread of hiv aids is further eroding the number of productive farm family workers and leaving many children as orphans with limited knowledge about how to farm left to themselves these forces will curtail opportunities for small farms overly favor large farms and lead to a premature and rapid exit of many small farms adding to already serious problems of rural poverty and urban ghettos if small farmers are to have a viable future then there is a need for a concerted effort by governments ngos and the private sector to create a more enabling economic environment for their development appropriate interventions could unleash significant benefits in the form of pro poor agricultural growth in many developing countries and more than pay for themselves in terms of their economic and social return but they do not seem very likely at the moment and current trends are moving in the opposite direction

evaluation of a hybrid seed contract between smallholders and a multinational company in east java indonesia this article evaluates a hybrid seed contract between indonesian smallholders and pioneer hybrid international a transaction cost approach was used to analyse contract participation total farm gross margins and labour and chemical use the empirical results suggest a the contract favours farmers with more irrigated land b the contract improved returns to farm capital and was welfare improving c the contract increased the demand for non family labour particularly female labour and d the contract increased the intensity of chemical use the success of the contract was attributed to the nature of the contracting process which was between pioneer and grower groups and not individual smallholders

organizational commitment in a mixed oligopoly agricultural cooperatives and investor owned firms a number of agricultural cooperativeorganizations prominent examples includetri valley growers and the saskatchewanwheat pool currently face considerable nancialand organizationalchallenges externally these challenges include a grow ing concentration in a number of sectors e g beef and pork packing and a greater preva lence of vertical integration and contracts internally cooperatives co ops encountergreater heterogeneity among members greater property rights problems cook anda decline in member commitment fulton1999 this latter factor has been cited asone reason for the declining market shareand poor nancialperformance of a numberof co ops fulton and gibbings the purpose of this article is to examinethe issue of member commitment in the con text of a mixed oligopoly where co ops andinvestor owned rms iofs compete witheach other in supplying a consumer good

land rental development via institutional innovation in rural jiangsu china previous studies have demonstrated that there are two important preconditions for encouraging land rental in agriculture out migration and the enhancement of security and transferability of land rights focusing on the latter we scrutinize the impacts of institutions aimed at facilitating land use dynamism particularly the rural shareholding cooperatives rscs which have been established recently at the local level in rural china in general we find that rscs can pave the way for the extension of property rights to farmland and promote more efficient land use patterns using survey data collected from 300 village committees in rural jiangsu province we estimate the effectiveness of rscs in encouraging land rental our analysis reveals that rscs can serve as intermediate agents for reducing transaction costs associated with exchange of land use rights and thereby not only encourage land rental consolidation activities but also enable the entry of non farm household entities into the farm business

analysis of the nonlinear response of electricity prices to fundamental and strategic factors this paper seeks to characterize the nonlinear effects of exogenous factors on wholesale electricity price formation using a special type of regime switching the logistic smooth transition regression model we capture the mean reverting and spiky characteristics of spot prices and at the same time estimate their rather complex relationships to fundamentals we show that for different trading periods within the day prices can be a function of fundamentally different drivers in addition to including the usual fuel price demand and reserve margin drivers this analysis tests whether a market concentration variable is as significant in the high frequency context as it is known to be over the longer term the analysis is also innovative in testing the nonlinear influence of carbon emission trading

optimal forecasts from markov switching models we derive forecasts for markov switching models that are optimal in the mean square forecast error msfe sense by means of weighting observations we provide analytic expressions of the weights conditional on the markov states and conditional on state probabilities this allows us to study the effect of uncertainty around states on forecasts it emerges that even in large samples forecasting performance increases substantially when the construction of optimal weights takes uncertainty around states into account performance of the optimal weights is shown through simulations and an application to u s gnp where using optimal weights leads to significant reductions in msfe supplementary materials for this article are available online

was the recent downturn in us real gdp predictable this article uses a small set of variables real gdp the inflation rate and the short term interest rate and a rich set of models atheoretical time series and theoretical structural linear and nonlinear as well as classical and bayesian models to consider whether we could have predicted the recent downturn of the us real gdp comparing the performance of the models to the benchmark random walk model by root mean square errors the two structural theoretical models especially the nonlinear model perform well on average across all forecast horizons in our ex post out of sample forecasts although at specific forecast horizons certain nonlinear atheoretical models perform the best the nonlinear theoretical model also dominates in our ex ante out of sample forecast of the great recession suggesting that developing forward looking microfounded nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models of the economy may prove crucial in forecasting turning points

a floor and ceiling model of us output abstract building on previous nonlinear time series models we further examine the form of nonlinearity in us output we develop a model of us output that allows for floor and ceiling effects to alter the dynamics of output growth the model estimated on post korean war quarterly data displays features similar to nonlinear trade cycle models of the 1940s and 1950s thus as predicted by many of the earlier theoretical models our empirical results suggest that the turning points of the business cycle provide new initial conditions for the ensuing growth process we also find important asymmetries in the responses of output to positive and negative shocks this history and shock dependence property is not present in linear or approximately linear models of the type that arise in the standard implementations of real business cycle theory

price dynamics in a vertical sector the case of butter we develop a reduced form model of price transmission in a vertical sector allowing for refined asymmetric contemporaneous and lagged own and cross price effects under time varying volatility the model is used to investigate the wholesale retail price dynamics in the u s butter market the analysis documents the nature of nonlinear price dynamics in a vertical sector it finds strong evidence of asymmetric retail price responses both in the short term and the longer term but only weak evidence of asymmetric wholesale price responses asymmetric retail responses play a major role in generating a skewed distribution of butter prices the empirical results indicate the presence of imperfect competition at the retail level

can the markov switching model forecast exchange rates abstract a markov swirching model is fit for 18 exchange rates at quarterly frequencies the model fits well in sample for many exchange rates by the mean squared error criterion the markov model does not generate superior forecasts to a random walk or the forward rate there appears to ne some evidence that the forecasts of the markov model are superior at predicting the direction of change of the exchange rate

an analysis of contract farming in east java bali and lombok indonesia this article examines the emergence and benefits of contract farming in east java bali and lombok indonesia after a general review of contract farming in these regions three contracts for seed corn in east java seed rice in bali and broilers in lombok are described and analyzed using key informant interviews and household survey data a review of the contracts suggest that there is a wide array of contract types and this is related to the technical requirements of production and the associated costs probit analysis is used to identify factors contributing to smallholder participation in farm contracts and a two stage estimation process used to measure the effects of farm contracts on gross margins and labor use results indicate participation in contracts is influenced by farm size and other factors such as smallholder s age education and participation in farm groups contracts increased returns to capital for the seed corn and broiler contracts but not for the seed rice contract all three contracts influenced the types of labor used however none of them influenced total farm employment

a nonlinear approach to us gnp a univariate nonlinear model is estimated for us gnp that on many criteria outperforms standard linear models the estimated model is of the threshold autoregressive type and contains evidence of asymmetric effects of shocks over the business cycle in particular the nonlinear model suggests that the post 1945 us economy is significantly more stable than the pre 1945 us economy

investment intensity of currencies and the random walk hypothesis cross currency evidence abstract this paper studies the cross currency and temporal variations in the random walk behavior in exchange rates we characterize currencies with relatively large investment flows as investment intensive and conjecture that the more investment intensive a currency is the closer its exchange rate adheres to random walk using 29 floating bilateral usd exchange rates we find that the higher the investment intensity the less likely it is to reject random walk and the smaller the deviation from random walk is however the effect of investment intensity is non monotonic application of threshold models shows that after investment intensity reaches the estimated thresholds the level of investment intensity has no further effect on the deviation from random walk these findings help reconcile the previous conflicting results on the random walk in exchange rates by focusing on the effect of cross currency and temporal variations in investment intensity

spillovers from modern supply chains to traditional markets product innovation and adoption by smallholders there is an emerging body of literature analyzing how smallholder farmers in developing countries can benefit from modern supply chains however most of the available studies concentrate on export markets and fail to capture spillover effects that modern supply chains may have on local markets here we analyze the case of sweet pepper in thailand which was initially introduced as a product innovation in modern supply chains but which is now widely traded also in more traditional markets using survey data from smallholder farmers and econometric techniques we show that sweet pepper cultivation contributes significantly to higher household incomes strikingly at this stage participation in modern supply chains does not lead to higher incomes than supplying sweet pepper to traditional markets however the results also indicate that missing land titles weak infrastructure conditions and limited access to information constituted serious constraints during the early phases of sweet pepper adoption such constraints need to be overcome so that smallholder farmers are better prepared for the prompt reactions needed under rapidly changing market conditions

the transition to modern agriculture contract farming in developing economies recent years have seen considerable interest in the impact of contract farming on farmers in developing countries motivated out of belief that contract farming spurs transition to modern agriculture in this article we provide a thorough review of the empirical literature on contract farming in bo

distributional effects of agricultural cooperatives in china exclusion of smallholders and potential gains on participation abstract this paper examines the treatment effects of the agricultural cooperative and publicly funded extension services on individual household economy using data collected by the author from watermelon producing farm households in rural nanjing the cooperative addressed in this study restricts the participation of small scale farmers implying that selection into the program must be taken into consideration for an accurate assessment of the treatment effect the econometric analysis revealed that government extension services have a modest effect on farm income in contrast the treatment effect of the agricultural cooperative is robust and substantially large accounting for nearly 70 of the pre matching difference this suggests that the agricultural cooperative system is an important avenue for farmers to improve their economic status the treatment effect of the agricultural cooperative is highly heterogeneous the economic benefits arising from the cooperative are significant only for small scale farms we can argue that a coexistence of smallholder exclusion and the treatment effect in favor of small scale farms poses serious challenges to pro poor agricultural growth in china

farm strategy self selection and productivity can small farming groups offer production benefits to farmers in post socialist romania abstract this paper addresses two questions why are romanian farmers continuing to place land in cooperative forms of farming when theory suggests that private farming is more productive and are there efficiency gains to be had from cooperative farming endeavors results from an econometric selection model suggest that smaller endogenously developed farming cooperatives such as family societies provide benefits over private farming strategies under certain conditions this paper questions the wholesale rejection of cooperation around production and challenges policy to move away from the typically dichotomized presentation of agrarian structure as being a trade off between private small scale farming and large scale collective farming

dynamic asymmetries in u s unemployment we examine dynamic asymmetries in u s unemployment using nonlinear time series models and bayesian methods we find strong statistical evidence in favor of a two regime threshold auto regressive model empirical results indicate that once we take into account both parameter and model uncertainty there are economically interesting asymmetries in the unemployment rate one finding of particular interest is that shocks that lower the unemployment rate tend to have a smaller effect than shocks that raise the unemployment rate this finding is consistent with unemployment rises being sudden and falls gradual

forecasting asymmetric unemployment rates asymmetric behavior has been documented in postwar quar terly u s unemployment rates this suggests that improvement over conventional linear forecasts may be possible through the use of nonlinear time series models in this note an out of sample forecasting competition is carried out for a set of leading nonlinear time series models it is shown that several nonlinear forecasts do indeed dominate the linear forecast the results are sensitive however to whether a stationarity inducing transfor mation is applied to the nonstationary unemployment rate series

the snakes and ladders of twenty first century trade unionism trade unions in the advanced countries face a difficult future their core membership bases in manufacturing industry and public services have become declining sectors of employment keynesian demand management on which they depended for tight labour markets has collapsed most industrial relations activity has shifted to the enterprise level which they often find difficult to penetrate precarious employment which makes union membership difficult is growing on the other hand certain advantages offset these weaknesses for a number of different recent economic and political elites often need the support of trade unions for national social pacts also employment conditions continue to create new social problems for working people which only unions can express unions in different countries encounter these combinations of favourable and unfavourable prospects in very different ways which is likely to produce increasing diversity among the emerging national patterns copyright 2000 by oxford university press

is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos abstract tests are conducted on u s macroeconomic data for the presence of low dimensional deterministic chaos where deterministic chaos is defined as in grandmont s 1985 walras bowley lecture or in brock 1986 the idea is to test for evidence of endogenous instability causing the business cycle low order autoregressions are hard to reject with our methods evidence of chaos is weak but our tests may be too weak to detect it evidence of nonlinearity is present in employment 1950 i to 1983 iv unemployment 1949 i to 1982 iv monthly post war industrial production and pig iron production 1877 1937

new institutional arrangements for rural development the case of local woolgrowers associations in the transkei area south africa until recently smallholder farmers in the transkei area had very limited access to a profitable market outlet for their wool in response the south african wool industry built shearing sheds managed by a local association that sells directly to the brokers this article investigates the effect of joint wool marketing through the shearing shed on the farmers revenue from wool a three step regression model of the revenue from wool indicates that the farmers selling through the shearing shed obtain better financial results as compared to those who use alternative channels this analysis shows how new institutional arrangements may contribute to economic development

impact of contract farming on income linking small farmers packers and supermarkets in china summary this study compares contract and non contract growers of apples and green onions in shandong province china in order to explore the constraints on participation and the impact of contract farming on income we find little evidence that firms prefer to work with larger farms though all farms in the area are quite small using a heckman selection correction model we find that contract farming raises income even after controlling for observable and unobservable household characteristics these results suggest that contract farming can help raise small farm income though questions remain regarding the number of farmers that can be brought into such schemes 2009 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

comparing smooth transition and markov switching autoregressive models of us unemployment logistic smooth transition and markov switching autoregressive models of a logistic transform of the monthly us unemployment rate are estimated by markov chain monte carlo methods the markov switching model is identified by constraining the first autoregression coefficient to differ across regimes the transition variable in the lstar model is the lagged seasonal difference of the unemployment rate out of sample forecasts are obtained from bayesian predictive densities although both models provide very similar descriptions bayes factors and predictive efficiency tests both bayesian and classical favor the smooth transition model copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

globalization privatization and vertical coordination in food value chains in developing and transition countries food and agricultural commodity value chains in developing and transition countries have undergone tremendous changes in the past decades companies and property rights have been privatized markets liberalized and economies integrated into global food systems the liberalization and privatization initially caused the collapse of state controlled vertical coordination more recently private vertical coordination systems have emerged and are growing rapidly as a response to consumer demand for food quality and safety on the one hand and the farms production constraints caused by factor market imperfections in this article we 1 demonstrate the importance of these changes 2 discuss the implications for efficiency and equity and 3 provide empirical evidence on the effects in several developing and transition countries

contract farming smallholders and rural development in latin america the organization of agroprocessing firms and the scale of outgrower production abstract this paper demonstrates how contract farming functions as an economic institution and explores the causes of the observed variation in the scale of outgrower production in latin america we outline how market imperfections and transaction costs influence the decision of agroprocessing firms to contract out vertically integrate or use spot markets to obtain raw product the paper demonstrates how market conditions are likely to be associated with particular outgrower characteristics under contract farming an analysis of the mexican frozen vegetable industry illustrates determinants of successful and unsuccessful small scale contracting and suggests alternative policies to promote contract farming with smallholders

does purchasing power parity hold sometimes regime switching in real exchange rates standard unit root tests are not very powerful in drawing conclusions regarding the validity of purchasing power parity ppp rather than asking whether ppp holds throughout the whole sample period we examine in this study if ppp holds sometimes by employing hamilton type 1989 markov regime switching models when at least one of multiple regimes is stationary ppp holds locally within the regime there are indeed various reasons that we should expect that the persistence of real exchange rates changes over time employing five real exchange rates spanning more than 100 years we find herein strong evidence that the strength of ppp varies during the sample periods and that there exist stationary regimes in which ppp holds throughout the article we also make comparisons to previous markov regime switching estimation results by kanas 2006 on the same data series the new markov switching model selection criterion of smith et al 2006 which is devised especially for discriminating markov regime s

small farmers in high value chains binding or relaxing constraints to inclusive growth summary considerable empirical work relates participation in contract farming with farm profitability however causation is far from settled as few studies control for endogeneity of participation moreover the link between contract farming and equity is ambiguous as the association between contract farming and farmer endowments is mixed this case study of smallholders in the tobacco industry addresses these issues and seems to be the first such econometric application in the philippines based on a treatment effects regression contract farming increases profitability with participation biased toward smaller farm sizes supporting the positive role of contract farming toward inclusive growth in rural areas

excess comovements between the euro us dollar and pound sterling us dollar exchange rates abstractthe aim of this article is to discuss excess comovements of the euro us dollar and pound sterling us dollar exchange rates i e we look for comovements of exchange rates which are stronger

are economic time series asymmetric over the business cycle it has long been argued that major cyclical variables such as the unemployment rate display an asymmetric behavior over various phases of the business cycle the paper provides a statistical test for this hypothesis using the framework of finite state markov processes i implement a test to see if the behavior of the unemployment rate is characterized by sudden jumps and slower drops it is argued that the framework provided in the paper can also be used to test other sample path properties of economic time series

contractual arrangements between farmer cooperatives and buyers in china the agrofood market in china is dominated by spot market exchanges of small farmers and various small traders with only minor penetration of the modern supply chain at the farmgate the emerging farmer professional cooperatives fpcs are expected to facilitate vertical coordination the overall goal of this study is to investigate the contractual arrangements between the fpcs and the buyers based on a national representative survey of 157 fpcs in china this study shows that 32 of fpcs introduced written contracts in the primary marketing channel contracts are more likely to be adopted in the livestock sector and are positively related to the scale of production while branding promotes contracts between fpcs and buyers public certification of quality and food safety often substitutes for contracts furthermore the membership heterogeneity of fpcs affects an fpc s decision to use contractual arrangements with the buyer

do recessions permanently change output abstract this paper examines whether negative innovations to gnp are more or less persistent than positive innovations we find that once we allow for the impulse response of gnp to be asymmetric negative innovations to gnp are observed to be much less persistent than positive ones in particular the effect of a recession on the forecast of output is found to be negligible after only eight to twelve quarters while the effect of a positive shock is estimated to be persistent and amplified over time our results may therefore help reconcile two antagonistic views about the nature of business cycle fluctuations

evaluating density forecasts with applications to financial risk management density forecasting is increasingly more important and commonplace for example in financial risk management yet little attention has been given to the evaluation of density forecasts the authors develop a simple and operational framework for density forecast evaluation they illustrate the framework with a detailed application to density forecasting of asset returns in environments with time varying volatility finally the authors discuss several extensions copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

unemployment persistence does the size of the shock matter one of the stylized facts of unemployment is that shifts in its mean rate between decades and half decades account for most of its variance in this paper we use a statistical analysis based on markov switching regression models to identify the dates of infrequent changes in the mean of the unemployment rate series of fifteen countries we find that in most countries unemployment persistence is much reduced once the infrequently changing mean rate induced by large shocks to unemployment has been removed we conclude that the observed persistence in unemployment appears to be consistent with multiple equilibria models and models with an endogeneous natural rate 1998 john wiley sons ltd

is there a peso problem evidence from the dollar pound exchange rate 1976 1987 one of the most puzzling aspects of the floating exchange rate regime since 1973 has been the apparent irrationality embedded in investors exchange rate expectations this paper investigates whether exchange rate forecasts although biased are still rational the idea is that investors can be rational and yet make repeated mistakes if the true model of the exchange rate is evolving over time the author s results support the hypothesis that the exchange rate has followed a switching regime process moreover the switching regime model estimated can explain about 75 percent of the bias implied by the forward market and the survey data copyright 1993 by american economic association

trade standards and poverty evidence from senegal summary in the debate on trade and poverty it is argued that standards act as trade barriers and cause marginalization of the poor this paper quantifies income and poverty effects of high standards trade and integrates labor market effects by using company and household survey data from the vegetable export chain in senegal we find that exports grew sharply despite increasing standards contributing importantly to rural incomes and poverty reduction tightening standards induced a shift from smallholder contract farming to integrated estate production altering the mechanism through which poor households benefit through labor markets instead of product markets

cash cropping and food crop productivity synergies or trade offs the case for promoting export oriented cash crops in africa has generally been based on their direct potential contribution to agricultural productivity and small farmer incomes a relatively neglected avenue of research concerns the synergistic effects that cash cropping can have on other household activities including food production the conventional view that cash crops compete with food crops for land and labour neglects the potential for cash crop schemes to make available inputs on credit management training and other resources that can contribute to food crop productivity which might otherwise not be accessible to farmers if they did not participate in cash crop programs this article builds on previous research by hypothesising key pathways by which cash crops may affect food crop activities and empirically measuring these effects using the case of cotton in gokwe north district in zimbabwe analysis is based on instrumental variable analysis of survey data on 430 rural households in 1996 results indicate that after controlling for household assets education and locational differences households engaging intensively in cotton production obtain higher grain yields than non cotton and marginal cotton producers we also find evidence of regional spill over effects whereby commercialisation schemes induce second round investments in a particular area that provide benefits to all farmers in that region regardless of whether they engage in that commercialisation scheme the study suggests that the potential spill over benefits for food crops through participation in cash crop programs are important to consider in the development of strategies designed to intensify african food crop production

long swings in exchange rates are they really in the data several authors have reported evidence of long swings in u s dollar exchange rates by rejecting the random walk in favor of a markov regime switching model we show that this evidence is not robust to an extension of the sample period one should however not conclude that long swings are thus absent because the tests may have insufficient power a possible reason for this is the low data frequency because existing tests are based on quarterly data and we find that the power can be increased substantially by raising the data frequency indeed weekly data reject the random walk so we conclude that long swings are in the data this conclusion is supported by significant superiority of regime switching over random walk out of sample forecasts of the direction of change

the social performance and distributional consequences of contract farming an equilibrium analysis of the arachide de bouche program in senegal abstract this paper is an empirical analysis of the impact of a contract farming program in senegal we examine the access of poorer community members to contracts and the effect of the program on the income of participants the program performs very well on both counts participants and nonparticipants are indistinguishable by wealth measures and farmers increase their income substantially by participating in the program we attribute the former to the program s mobilization of local information through its use of village intermediaries permitting the substitution of social collateral for physical collateral and making the program more accessible to the poor

on the periodic structure of the business cycle this article tests whether an economic recovery is equally likely to occur in any month of the year i test this hypothesis with a homogeneous markov switching regime model and use the turning point dates for business cycles marked by the national bureau of economic research and romer i tend to find unequal probabilities to switch from recession to expansions in particular the spring and the month of december appear to have higher incidence of economic recovery my results also imply that recessions and expansions are on average longer or shorter depending on what time of the year they start this suggests the presence of a seasonal pattern in business cycle durations though such a notion of seasonality is quite different from the common one based on unobserved component linear time series models i investigate issues that go beyond linear dependence between seasonality and business cycles

the left and organized labor in low inflation times this article presents fresh empirical data showing that policy alignment between center left governments and trade unions was a sustained feature of european politics between 1974 and 2005 this contradicts expectations of a wide delinkage between the electoral left and labor as a consequence of globalization deindustrialization and unionization decline however structural economic change has altered the policy field so that sustained policy alignment can no longer be explained by existing theoretical frameworks based on a theoretical argument and a multivariate empirical test the article contends that policy alignment is likelier to occur if labor plays an important role in economic management at the microlevel and the industry level and if unions are politically cohesive agents thanks to powerful confederation leadership supported by democratic decision making practices in making its case the article bridges the literatures on comparative capitalism and party politics in order to account for change and continuity in policy making processes

meteor showers or heat waves heteroskedastic intra daily volatility in the foreign exchange market this paper seeks to explain the causes of volatility clustering in exchange rates careful examination of intra daily exchange rates provides a test of two hypotheses heat waves and meteor showers the heat wave hypothesis is that the volatility has only country specific autocorrelation alternatively the meteor shower is a phenomenon of intra daily volatility spillovers from one market to the next using the garch model to specify the heteroskedasticity across intra daily market segments we find that the empirical evidence is generally against the null hypothesis of the heat wave using a volatility type of vector autoregression we examine the impact of news in one market on the time path of per hour volatility in other markets

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

reforms globalization and endogenous agricultural structures in this paper i draw lessons from two quasi natural experiments the transition process in former communist countries and the rapid globalization of food chains on the optimality of farms and agricultural structures more generally i argue that a the farm structures that have emerged from the transition process are much more diverse than expected ex ante b this diversity is to an important extent determined by economic mechanisms which are influenced by initial conditions eg technology and reform policies c non traditional farm structures have played an important role during transition since they were optimal to address the specific institutional and structural constraints imposed by the transition process d there is more diversity than often argued in the farms that are integrated in global food chains e endogenous institutional contracting innovations in food chains may lock existing farm structures in a long run institutional framework and f indicators based on farm structures are not a good measure of welfare effects of the globalization of food chains

does cooperative membership improve household welfare evidence from apple farmers in china this paper examines the impact of cooperative membership on farm performance indicators such as apple yields net returns and household income using cross sectional data from a survey of farmers in china an endogenous switching regression model that accounts for selection bias is employed in the analysis the empirical results reveal that cooperative membership exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on apple yields farm net returns and household income a disaggregated analysis also reveals that small scale farms tend to benefit more from cooperatives than medium and large farms

agricultural cooperative membership and technical efficiency of apple farmers in china an analysis accounting for selectivity bias abstract this study examines the impact of agricultural cooperative membership on technical efficiency te of apple farmers in china we make novel contributions to the literature by employing a recently developed selectivity corrected stochastic production frontier model with propensity score matching to address possible self selection biases stemming from both observable and unobservable factors the empirical results show that te for cooperative members ranges from 79 to 86 per cent and that for non members ranges from 74 to 84 per cent depending on how biases are controlled in addition the efficiency levels of both members and non members of cooperatives appear to be underestimated if the selectivity bias is not appropriately addressed our findings conclude that the average te is consistently higher for cooperative members relative to their counterparts highlighting the positive role of contemporary agricultural cooperatives in promoting efficient usage of production inputs

contracting out solutions political economy of contract farming in the indian punjab abstract this paper examines the rationale practice and problems of contract farming in vegetable crops in the agriculturally developed indian punjab which has faced the problem of sustainability of growth since the early 1980s it is found that agribusiness firms deal with relatively large producers and their contracts which are biased against the farmer perpetuate the existing problems of the farm sector such as high chemical input intensity and social differentiation contracting has however led to higher farm incomes and more employment for labor there seems to be an inherent contradiction in the objectives of the contracting parties and those of the local economy

the formation of cooperatives a game theoretic approach with implications for cooperative finance decision making and stability this paper departs from the traditional organization oriented approach to cooperative analysis it exploits cooperation s functional similarity to vertical integration to examine individuals incentives to form cooperatives a model of formation of a purchasing cooperative is presented and developed as an n person game with the core as a solution concept core existence is examined for both single and multiple cooperative configurations and cooperative finance methods are examined relative to finding core compatible allocation rules the results provide insight into a cooperative s equilibrium output stability decision making financing methods and choice of open or restricted membership

agrifood industry transformation and small farmers in developing countries summary this article introduces this special issue on the rapid transformation of the agrifood industry in developing countries and its effects on small farmers we review the literature from the late 1980s to the present and find evidence first of food processing then retail transformation and mixed evidence of impacts on small farmers both inclusion particularly with resource providing contracts and exclusion sometimes from scale constraint sometimes from inadequate non land assets the special issue papers contribute to the debate by confirming the mix of cases of inclusion and exclusion the cases are main in horticulture and dairy key hopes for smallholder development

conventional monetary policy transmission during financial crises an empirical analysis summary this paper studies the effects of a conventional monetary policy shock in the usa during times of high financial stress the analysis is carried out by introducing a smooth transition factor model where the transition between states normal and high financial stress depends on a financial conditions index employing a quarterly dataset over the period 1970 q1 to 2008 q4 containing 108 us macroeconomic and financial time series i find that a monetary policy shock during periods of high financial stress has stronger and more persistent effects on macroeconomic variables such as output consumption and investment than it has during normal times differences in effects among the regimes seem to originate from nonlinearities in both components of the credit channel i e the balance sheet channel and the bank lending channel copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

unemployment dynamics and labour market tightness an empirical evaluation of matching function models the implications of matching function models for the relationship between labour market tightness and the transition probability into employment are summarized these implications are then tested using monthly data for three canadian provinces british columbia ontario and quebec testing methods use flexible regression techniques so as to reduce the effect of any extraneous restrictions the results show rough concordance between theoretical assumptions and empirical facts evidence of non linearity in the estimated relationships favours a search theoretic model of labour markets over one based on queues and some quantitative results offer guidance to those using calibrated search models in theoretical analysis

spillovers from high value agriculture for exports on land use in developing countries evidence from madagascar high value agriculture for exports is increasingly important in developing countries in a case study of contract farming for exports of vegetables from madagascar strong spillover effects of these trade opportunities on land use are found to exist using a matched plot sampling design the productivity of rice the main domestically consumed staple is shown to be two thirds higher on fields that were contracted during the off season for the production of vegetables this increase in yields is linked to an increase of soil fertility due to the application of fertilizer and compost which farmers did not use prior to the contracts although agricultural output goes up significantly labor productivity stays the same suggesting that there is greater labor absorption on existing land and the diffusion of this type of technology at a larger scale throughout madagascar would be expected to substantially decrease incentives to deforest by increasing wages and to boost productivity of existing lands relative to newly deforested ones

uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in u s recessions abstract what are the effects of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics we answer this question by estimating non linear smooth transition vars with post wwii u s data the relevance of uncertainty shocks is found to be much larger than that predicted by standard linear vars in terms of i magnitude of the reaction of the unemployment rate to such shocks and ii contribution to the variance of the prediction errors of unemployment at business cycle frequencies the ability of different classes of dsge models to replicate our results is discussed