reduction potentials of energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector abstract rapid growth of road vehicles private vehicles in particular has resulted in continuing growth in china s oil demand and imports which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices and a major contributor to china s ghg emission increase this paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures a detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of china s road transport sector the business as usual scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long term trends of road transport energy demand the best case scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control fuel economy regulation promoting diesel and gas vehicles fuel tax and biofuel promotion are assumed to be implemented energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios the total reduction potentials in the best case scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated

the aim end use model and its application to forecast japanese carbon dioxide emissions abstract the asian pacific integrated model aim has been developed for predicting greenhouse gas emissions and evaluating policy measures to reduce them two socioeconomic scenarios were assumed and co 2 emissions were predicted based on these scenarios and policy intervention assumptions it is found that mitigating co 2 emissions by 6 to the 1990 level is possible without scaling back productive activities or living standards in japan however this cannot be achieved by relying on the market mechanism alone our analysis shows that it is indispensable to introduce new policies and measures such as a carbon tax and subsidies

indicators for sustainable energy development a multivariate cointegration and causality analysis from tunisian road transport sector this paper studies causal mechanism between indicators for sustainable energy development related to energy consumption from tunisian road transport sector the investigation is made using the johansen cointegration technique and the environmental kuznets curve ekc approach it examines the nexus between transport value added road transport related energy consumption road infrastructure fuel price and co2 emissions from tunisian transport sector during the period of 1980 2010 empirical results show that road transport related energy consumption transport value added transport co2 emissions and road infrastructure are mutually causal in the long run these results do not support the hypothesis of neutrality between energy and income for the tunisian road transport sector also there is a unidirectional causality running from fuel price to road transport related energy consumption with no feedback in both the short and long runs the fuel price and the road infrastructure are significant in the causal chain though the estimated long run cointegrated equation we conclude that there is an inverse n shaped relation between transport value added and transport co2 emissions with income turning point respectively equal to 75 and 579 constant 2000 tnd prices therefore our empirical findings refute the hypothesis of an inverted u shaped ekc for transport co2 emissions in tunisia the findings of this study have a number of policy implications economic growth environmental degradation energy and transportation policies should be recognized in order to improve the energy efficiency in transport sector all measures that should reduce petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions without affecting economic growth may be undertaken the policymakers in tunisia should plan urban transport relocate production units improve fuel efficient vehicles and reinforce legislation on controlling emissions in order to copying with policies based on low carbon development and climate resilient strategies

oil vulnerability index of oil importing countries abstract this paper assesses the relative oil vulnerability of 26 net oil importing countries for the year 2004 on the basis of various indicators the ratio of value of oil imports to gross domestic product gdp oil consumption per unit of gdp gdp per capita and oil share in total energy supply ratio of domestic reserves to oil consumption exposure to geopolitical oil market concentration risks as measured by net oil import dependence diversification of supply sources political risk in oil supplying countries and market liquidity the approach using the principal component technique has been adopted to combine these individual indicators into a composite index of oil vulnerability such an index captures the relative sensitivity of various economies towards developments of the international oil market with a higher index indicating higher vulnerability the results show that there are considerable differences in the values of individual indicators of oil vulnerability and overall oil vulnerability index among the countries both inter and intraregional

evaluating energy security in the asia pacific towards a more comprehensive approach the energy security conundrum how to equitably provide available affordable reliable efficient and environmentally benign energy services is a technology and policy challenge perhaps unlike any other the recent article on an energy security in the asia pacific by vlado vivoda is an excellent starting point for how to best capture the unique energy security challenges facing the region this article builds on vivoda s work but also points out some shortcomings with his analysis

world transport energy demand modelling methodology and elasticities abstract this paper presents the international energy agency s iea approach of modelling transport energy demand fuel demand which is not a demand per se is derived whenever possible from the economic activity in the transport sector and not estimated directly ie using one equation or simultaneous equation system in general the transport models employ a two step approach in the first step transport activity the sector s relevant energy service is estimated econometrically in the second step the transport activity projections are then combined with estimates of efficiency improvements car turnover rates and diesel gasoline penetration assumptions in order to arrive at projections of fuel demand the principal advantages of this approach are that the relevant energy services are modelled and that for model simulation efficiency improvements can be dealt with explicitly the effectiveness of economic instruments is a function of the reaction of consumers and businesses to income and price changes an in depth understanding of income and price elasticities of transport demand and transport energy demand is important in order to be able to assess the effectiveness of policies considered the paper also shows the underlying long term income and price elasticities for oecd and non oecd regions

from the copenhagen accord to efficient technology protocols abstract as the copenhagen conference of parties cop failed to negotiate a binding post kyoto agreement an alternative is proposed based on the copenhagen accord ca the ca as endorsed by cop16 in cancun aims to combat global warming with differentiated reduction targets of greenhouse gas emissions and by mobilizing resources supporting adaptation and carbon free technology in developing countries dcs using a special version of merge we study the global implications of the ca postulating extensions of the accord in the direction of technology transfer protocols ttps we assess scenarios needed to reach sustainable climate targets under such protocols it is shown that without binding commitments for dcs the warming target of 2 c will be exceeded with a probability above 50 even if annex b countries eliminate their emissions however moderate commitments of dcs when they reach sufficient economic development make the 2 c scenario feasible ttps combined with binding emission reduction targets thus provide a mechanism to reduce climate change damages and may generate significant secondary benefits for example the reduced tax subsidy scenario rts20 has 77 to 40 chances to remain below 2 c of warming and an undiscounted cumulative gross domestic product gdp cost of 0 75 relative to baseline not accounting for the benefits of avoided damages

projection of future transport energy demand of thailand the objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in thailand for the next 20 years the study develops log linear regression models and feed forward neural network models using the as independent variables national gross domestic product population and the numbers of registered vehicles the models are based on 20 year historical data between years 1989 and 2008 and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010 2030 the final log linear models include only gross domestic product since all independent variables are highly correlated it was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54 84 59 05 million tonnes of oil equivalent 2 5 times the 2008 consumption the projected demand is only 61 65 of that predicted in a previous study which used the leap model this major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections because these numbers greatly affect plans policies and budget allocation for national energy management

a theoretical foundation to support the index of sustainable economic welfare isew genuine progress indicator gpi and other related indexes abstract for some time now ecological economists have been putting forward a threshold hypothesis the notion that when macroeconomic systems expand beyond a certain size the additional cost of growth exceeds the flow of additional benefits in order to support their belief ecological economists have developed a number of similar indexes to measure and compare the benefits and costs of growth e g the index of sustainable economic welfare isew and the genuine progress indicator gpi in virtually every instance where an index of this type has been calculated for a particular country the movement of the index appears to reinforce the existence of the threshold hypothesis of late a number of observers have cast doubt over the validity of these alternative indexes one of the concerns commonly expressed is the supposed lack of a theoretical foundation to support the isew the gpi and other related indexes by adopting a concept of income and capital outlined by fisher nature of capital and income a m kelly new york 1906 this paper demonstrates that these alternative indexes are theoretically sound but in order to be broadly accepted require the continuous development of more robust valuation methods

assessing the energy vulnerability case of industrialised countries the emergence of new big consumer countries on the energy markets and the perspective of oil and gas depletion at the end of the current century raise the concerns about fair distribution of the remaining resources for the common and sustainable wellbeing of the mankind high volatility of energy prices discourages the investment and delays the energy technology transition voluntary measures are needed mainly in industrialised countries in order to develop alternative and sustainable energy sources to enable technology transfer towards emerging and developing countries and to avoid struggle for energy procurement in this paper a composite index of energy demand supply weaknesses is defined as a proxy of energy vulnerability the proposed index is based on several indicators such as energy intensity oil and gas import dependency co2 content of primary energy supply electricity supply weaknesses and non diversity in transport fuels the assessment of this composite index for selected industrialised countries is discussed as well as the sensitivity to various factors

worker inflow outflow and churning linked employer employee data from finnish business sector is used in analysing worker turnover the data set is an unbalanced panel with over 219 000 observations in 1991 97 the churning excess worker turnover worker inflow and worker outflow rates are explained by plant and employee characteristics the probabilities of observing non zero churning inflow and outflow rates increase with plant size the magnitudes of the non zero churning and inflow rates depend positively on size but the magnitude of outflow rate depends negatively on size high wage plants have low turnover plants with large within plant variation in wages have high turnover average tenure of employees has a negative impact on turnover high plant employment growth increases churning and separation but reduces hiring in the next year also controlled are average age and education of employees shares of women and homeowners among employees foreign ownership ownership changes and regional unemployment

has australia surpassed its optimal macroeconomic scale finding out with the aid of benefit and cost accounts and a sustainable net benefit index abstract the sustainable economic welfare of a nation depends largely on the sustainable net benefits the macroeconomy confers to its citizens for this reason an optimal macroeconomic scale can be considered one where the physical scale of the macroeconomy and the qualitative nature of the stock of wealth it comprises maximises a nation s sustainable net benefits the corollary of this definition is thus the physical scale of the macroeconomy should grow only if in the process the sustainable net benefits of a nation increase it should cease to grow once sustainable net benefits are maximised whilst it is one thing to promote an optimal macroeconomic scale it is another entirely to gain an appreciation of the sustainable net benefits yielded by the macroeconomy gaining such an appreciation constitutes the central aim of this paper with the assistance of two separate benefit and cost accounts to replace gross domestic product gdp a sustainable net benefit index is constructed for australia for the period 1966 1967 to 1994 1995 the index particularly at the per capita level indicates that economic welfare in australia is declining i e the average australian is getting poorer despite per capita real gdp increasing the index therefore suggests that the scale of the australian macroeconomy has probably well exceeded the optimum

energy models for demand forecasting a review abstract energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation be it social economic or environment in the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security energy is linked to industrial production agricultural output health access to water population education quality of life etc energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources during the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs in this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models traditional methods such as time series regression econometric arima as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic genetic algorithm and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management support vector regression ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting bottom up models such as markal and leap are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management

long term outlook of energy use and co2 emissions from transport in central and eastern europe a forecast of transport activity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions from transportation carried out under business as usual economic assumptions is presented for the 10 countries of central and eastern europe that have acquired the status of accession countries to the european union energy demand is projected under considerations of the dynamic evolution of transport modes and their use the evolution of automotive fuel prices which are assumed to gradually converge with western european price levels within the current decade and assumptions on efficiency improvements in all transport modes according to current technological trends and european regulations the results showing transportation energy demand to double and co2 emissions to be 70 higher in 2030 compared to 2000 are compared with other published forecasts and discussed with a view to potential future energy and environmental impacts in these countries outlining major policy implications r 2002 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

relationship between level of economic development and motorcycle and car ownerships and their impacts on fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emission in thailand abstract an increase in road vehicles secondary to economic development has strongly pushed up energy demand and adversely impact the environment by the emission of greenhouse gases and pollutants this paper aims to analyse the relationship between motorcycle and car ownerships and level of economic development in thailand in addition an overall private vehicle ownership which is a sum of both types of private vehicle ownership is also studied an understanding of these relationships due to the economic development is a key knowledge for the sustainable transport policy in the future the results of this study revealed that at the early stage of economic development of developing countries like thailand the number of motorcycles predominates over private cars economic development strongly affects the ownership of private vehicles in two ways 1 overall private vehicle ownerships increase as the income levels grow and 2 after personal income grows up to a certain level people will shift from motorcycle to car ownerships for their prestige convenience comfort and safety because of continuing economic development and population growth the expected increase in overall private vehicle ownership is projected to push up the total private vehicle stock of thailand in the year 2050 to about twice of the present level this will drive fuel demands in 2050 to about 2 4 times and the greenhouse gases ghg emission to about 2 5 times of the current levels hence policy makers in developing countries should not overlook the impacts on the consequences of increasing overall private vehicle stock in the near future the best and most appropriate policies should be given to the development of public transport as the first priority rather than the traditional one which gives highest priority to traffic mobility of private vehicles by road transport neglecting the effectiveness of passengers mobility of the public transport in addition policies to promote high efficiency vehicle technologies particularly for motorcycles should also be taken into consideration particularly for a low income country due to a high share of the motorcycles in the overall private vehicle stock

using the fisherian concept of income to guide a nation s transition to a steady state economy abstract many ecological economists have long been advocating that industrialised nations should abandon their growth predilection and initiate the transition to a steady state economy to demonstrate how a nation s transition to a steady state economy might be usefully guided fisherian national income one of the best known indicators of sustainable economic welfare is calculated for australia for the period 1967 1997 also calculated for the study period is the changing physical scale of the australian economy by juxtaposing per capita fisherian income and the growth of the australian economy it is shown that australia surpassed its optimal macroeconomic scale in the mid 1970s while around this time australia began a transition to a lower rate of growth that arrested the steep decline in per capita fisherian income australia had reverted back to a high growth policy by the end of the study period it chose not to continue the deceleration towards a steady state economy a policy stance that is likely to be detrimental to the sustainable economic welfare enjoyed by the average australian

low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy the aim enduse modelling approach abstract the transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward thailand s land transport sector is modelled using the aim enduse which is a recursive dynamic optimization model based on bottom up modelling principle the travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel the objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society lcs measures and emission tax et two scenario clusters are devised along with the bau case the lcs scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are lcs l lcs m and lcs h the emission tax et cluster has four scenarios where the taxes of 50 100 200 and 500 usd t co2 are implemented along with this the marginal abatement costs mac of the counter measures cms and the co benefits in terms of energy security productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed results show that lcs scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 mt co2 cumulatively from 2010 to 2050 in terms of macs new vehicles play a pivotal role along with hybrid vehicles the average abatement cost aac assessment shows that the aac of lcs h scenario is in the order of 100 usd t co2 all the lcs and et scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity there is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well

empirical assessment of the determinants of road energy demand in greece this paper attempts to cast light on the determinants of road energy demand in greece for this purpose we used cointegration techniques and vector autoregression var analysis in order to capture short run and long run dynamics for gasoline and diesel demand respectively from the empirical analysis that covers the period 1978 2003 we find that in the long run gasoline energy demand appears to be price and income inelastic while diesel demand appears to be price inelastic and income elastic we also found that the absence of close substitutes in the road sector denotes the low level of energy switching in greece

on the causal nexus of road transport co2 emissions and macroeconomic variables in tunisia evidence from combined cointegration tests abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between road transportation energy consumption fuel prices transport sector value added and co2 emissions in tunisia for the period of 1980 2012 we apply the newly developed combined cointegration test proposed by bayer c hanck c combining non cointegration tests j time ser anal 2013 34 1 83 95 and the ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration for establishing the existence of long run relationship in presence of structural breaks the direction of causality between these variables is determined via vector error correction model vecm our empirical exercise reveals that cointegration is present energy consumption adds in co2 emissions fuel prices decline co2 emissions road infrastructure boosts co2 emissions transport value added also increases co2 emissions the causality analysis indicates the bidirectional casual relationship between energy consumption and co2 emissions road infrastructure causes co2 emissions and similar is true from opposite side in granger sense the bidirectional causality is also found between transport value added and co2 emissions fuel prices cause co2 emissions energy consumption road infrastructure and transport value added in granger sense this paper provides new insights to policy makers for designing a comprehensive energy transport and environment policies for sustainable economic growth in long run

are vacancies difficult to fill an empirical investigation of the dutch labour market the search behaviour of employers is focused on by developing a model to analyse employers recruitment behaviour taking into account job seekers search process in addition the causes of anticipated difficulties on firms recruitment behaviour that may slow down the process of filling vacancies is investigated empirically to do so a survey is employed which contains information on the two main problems encountered by dutch employers during recruitment namely an insufficient number of applicants and too many rejections of job offers high educational and experience requirements are found to cause a low rate of response to the vacancy posted offers of permanent positions tend to be rejected by job seekers due to disagreements on the level of works offered further the condition of the supply side of the labour market strongly influences employers recruitment behaviour as employers increase their search intensity whenever problems are anticipated

benefits of low carbon development in a developing country case of nepal this paper analyzes the direct and indirect benefits of reducing co2 emission during 2005 to 2100 in the case of nepal a low income developing country rich in hydropower resource it discusses the effects on energy supply mix local pollutant emissions energy security and energy system costs of co2 emission reduction targets in the country by using an energy system model based on the markal framework the study considers three cases of co2 emission reduction targets and analyzes their benefits during the study period as compared to the reference scenario the first two cases consist of a 20 cutback scenario ert20 and 40 cutback scenario ert40 of co2 emission in the reference scenario the third case considers a 40 cutback of co2 emission with the share of electric mass transport emt in the land transport service demand increased to 30 as compared to 20 in the reference scenario the study shows that an implementation of scenario ert40 would increase the cumulative electricity generation mainly from hydropower by 16 5 794 twh reduce the cumulative consumption of imported fuels by 42 24 400 pj and increase the total energy system cost by 1 6 during 2005 to 2100 as compared to the reference scenario besides there would be a reduction in the emission of local pollutants and generation of additional employment in the country with the share of emt increased to 30 there would be a further reduction in local pollutant emissions an improvement in energy security and a decrease in the energy system cost compared to that in scenario ert40

extensive search intensive search and hiring costs new evidence on employer hiring activity this paper presents recent evidence on employer search to fill a position a 1982 employer survey sponsored by the national institute of education and the national center for research in vocational education provides the basis for analyzing employer search and hiring costs the paper examines the effects of such factors as employer size dismissal costs unionization on the job training adjustment costs capital and labor market conditions on intensive employer search extensive employer search and hiring costs intensive employer search is measured by the average number of hours the employer spends recruiting screening and interviewing per applicant extensive search is measured by the number of applicants seen per applicant interviewed and the number interviewed per employment

testing the transport energy environmental kuznets curve hypothesis in the eu27 countries abstract transport activities are essential for economic and social development nevertheless the transport sector has also shown the fastest growth in energy consumption in the european union and its contribution to increasing greenhouse gas emissions merits the thorough attention of academics and policy makers in this paper we analyze the relationship of economic growth and transport activities with transport final energy consumption energy kuznets curves are estimated for a panel data set covering the eu27 countries in the period 1995 2009 for total transport energy use household transport energy use and productive transport energy use all three in absolute and per capita energy use terms the productive transport energy use and gross value added relationship are further considered as per hour worked finally the control variables of energy prices and differences in the economic structures are tested empirical results show that the elasticity of transport energy use with respect to gross value added in per capita terms decreases from a threshold for the three transport energy consumption variables but the turning point of improved environmental quality is not reached in any instance

green logistics and national scale economic indicators evidence from a panel of selected european countries abstract the objective of the study is to examine the impact of logistics performance indices on national scale economic indicators i e energy environment and economic health in a panel of 27 european countries over a period of 2007 2014 the results show that logistics performance index in terms of timeliness significantly increases gdp per unit of energy use health expenditures and per capita income where as logistics index in terms of infrastructure increases renewable energy source and decreases carbon emissions logistics index for customs processes significantly associated with the less energy prices while logistics index for tracking and trace consignments substantially increases fossil fuel energy consumption logistics competence index have a differential impact on environment on one hand it substantially reduce the burden of fossil fuel energy consumption while on the other hand it s significantly increases carbon emissions logistics international shipments increase fossil fuel energy in a region industry value added and fdi inflows both increases energy prices fossil fuel energy health expenditures and per capita income whereas trade openness decreases energy prices and increases carbon emissions energy efficiency and per capita income the results conclude that logistics indices significantly linked with the national scale economic indicators that provoke for the green supply chain management in the region