preferences for energy efficiency vs renewables how much does a ton of co2 emissions cost concerns about climate change are growing and so is the demand for information about the costs and benefits of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions this paper seeks to estimate the benefits of climate change mitigation as measured by the public s willingness to pay for such policies we investigate the preferences of italian and czech households towards climate change mitigation policy options directly related to residential energy use we use discrete choice experiments which are administered in a standardized fashion to representative samples in the two countries through computer assisted web interviews our preferred estimates of the willingness to pay per ton of co2 emissions avoided is 133 for the italians and 94 euro for the czech respondents at 2014 purchasing power parity we find evidence of considerable heterogeneity in wtp driven by income the two samples differ in their within sample income elasticities of wtp but comparison across the two countries suggests an income elasticity of wtp of one or even greater than one for certain mixed logit specifications

the influence of collective action on the demand for voluntary climate change mitigation in hypothetical and real situations in this experiment we investigate determinants of the individual demand for voluntary climate change mitigation subjects decide between a cash prize and an allowance from the eu emissions trading scheme for one ton of co2 that will be deleted afterwards we vary the incentives of the decision situation in which we distinguish between real monetary incentives and a hypothetical decision situation with and without a cheap talk script furthermore decisions were implemented either as purely individual or as a collective action using majority voting we observe a significant hypothetical bias in the demand for voluntary climate change mitigation in case of the individual decision situation this bias is caused solely by subjects with low income collective decision making affects demand positively in the hypothetical decision situation only

willingness to pay for voluntary climate action and its determinants field experimental evidence the determinants of individual voluntary climate action vca in combating climate change and its potential scale are frequently debated in public but largely underresearched we provide estimates of the willingness to individually reduce eu greenhouse gas emissions by one ton using the european union emissions trading scheme estimates are derived from an online field experiment with a large highly heterogenous and internet representative sample of voting aged germans jointly estimating willingness to pay wtp non indifference to vca and prior knowledge we uncover important determinants of preferences for vca such as education the information structure among the population and exogenous environmental conditions

testing for the survey mode effect on contingent valuation data quality a case study of web based versus in person interviews this paper addresses the lack of empirical evaluation of the use of web based surveys in the context of contingent valuation surveys we compare using a case study in person interviews with web based surveys regarding response rate information additivity effects and respondents attitudes towards paying the web based survey had a much lower response 5 1 than the in person interviewing 84 we find the web based contingent valuation surveys to be neither more susceptible to information additivity effects nor more prone to zero protest responses we conclude in favor of the use of web based surveys namely in portugal where the number of internet users is rapidly increasing although further research efforts are required on their use

predicting consumer demand responses to carbon labels abstract providing carbon footprint labels for all food products is a daunting and potentially infeasible project knowing how consumers substitute away from high carbon goods and what they choose as substitutes is essential for understanding which goods are likely to result in meaningful reductions in carbon emissions this paper proposes a model to systematically estimate how consumers will respond to information from a carbon footprint label our model uses consumers value of their individual carbon footprint with own and cross price elasticities of demand data on carbon emissions from life cycle analysis to simulate shifts in consumer demand for 42 food products and a non food composite and subsequent changes in carbon emissions from different labeling schemes our simulation results have several findings including 1 carbon labels can reduce emissions but labeling only some items could lead to perverse impacts where consumers substitute away from labeled goods to unlabeled goods with a higher carbon footprint 2 carbon labels can inform consumers such that their previous beliefs about carbon footprints matter and 3 carbon labels on alcohol and meat would achieve the largest decreases in carbon emissions among the 42 food products studied

yes in my backyard spatial differences in the valuation of forest services and local co benefits for carbon markets in mexico forests provide many and large benefits including cost efficient climate change mitigation however international carbon markets have not stimulated the demand for forestry offsets domestic market mechanisms are emerging in many countries and forests could be highly valued through these policies as most of the benefits produced by forests are enjoyed locally here a choice experiment explores drivers of valuation and willingness to pay for forest carbon services in voluntary markets in mexico by comparing the valuation of citizens from four regions to test geographical preference for projects n 645 findings from multinomial logit models show valuation of forest carbon services is transferable and citizens would pay more for offsets from projects closer to their homes proximate forests provide a range of co benefits to local users including environmental services and opportunities for recreation factors related to valuation include sense of responsibility previous knowledge of carbon emissions previous visits to the sites regional identification and the valuation of local environmental services e g improvements in local air quality knowledge of spatial heterogeneity in valuation of the use of forest services can help to design market based instruments by identifying highly valued areas for environmental services programs and carbon markets

ethical differentiation and market behavior an experimental approach abstract does ethical differentiation of products affect market behavior we examined this issue in triopolistic experimental markets where producers set prices one producer s costs were higher than the others in two treatments the additional costs were attributed to compliance with ethical guidelines in the third no justification was provided many consumers reduced their experimental gains by purchasing the ethically differentiated products at higher prices individual differences were important business economics students paid smaller premia finally we speculate about the observed demand function for ethics and emphasize using experimental methodology to complement empirical studies in assessing markets for ethically differentiated products

loads of green washing can behavioural economics increase willingness to pay for efficient washing machines in the uk the eu energy efficiency labelling scheme has successfully increased demand for efficient appliances by providing a prominent letter rating to consumers during their product search behavioural economics be suggests the adoption of efficient appliances could be accelerated further by i monetising efficiency ii directly communicating the link between efficiency and carbon emissions iii communicating the long term e g operational life financial and environmental impact of product choices and iv framing the information as avoided losses extra rather than gains savings this study tested these hypotheses via an online stated preference survey of 465 uk residents using actual market pricing and efficiency data for washing machines the provision of information about either running costs or running emissions did encourage selection of more expensive and efficient products strongly correlated variables in the choice set and actual market p 001 r 30 41 with no statistically significant difference between their impact providing lifetime running cost information also nudged respondents towards more expensive efficient products than annual information p 006 027 r 15 18 finally loss framed running emissions information encouraged selection of more expensive efficient products than gain framed information p 05 r 13 16 the eu label is an impracticable means of communication but digital communication channels e g price comparison websites may offer potential for inexpensive localisation and personalisation of the information the results suggest that successful communication could benefit the private sector whilst making a contribution to reducing carbon emissions

residential energy efficiency and distributed generation natural partners or competition abstract residential energy efficiency and distributed generation seem to be natural partners in our journey towards a more sustainable energy future a growing range of energy efficient consumer technologies and extraordinary declines in photovoltaics system prices has seen household electricity demand fall whilst a growing proportion of the remaining load is provided by household self generation australia is a particularly interesting example of these developments with around 15 of households now possessing a pv system while per capita household demand has also fallen markedly however existing retail electricity tariffs and regulatory arrangements can create mixed incentives for households contemplating both pv and energy efficiency options and for their network service providers this is certainly the case in australia with net metering arrangements that value self consumption of pv far more than pv exports to the grid there are also complex benefits for the electricity network created by these household energy resources that can be significant in this paper we use real household load and pv data from sydney households to model the potential implications of existing electricity tariff arrangements on the financial attractiveness of pv and energy efficiency we model these options separately and in combination for both households implementing these options and their network service providers our results highlight how inappropriate tariffs may well adversely impact on the value that the combination of energy efficiency and pv offers not only to households but also to their network service providers and suggest ways that such impacts might be ameliorated by acknowledging the benefits that these resources can offer to the electricity network

sustainability indicators policy and governance issues for ecological economics abstract ecological economics is a major forum for discussion of theoretical and analytical aspects of measuring sustainability the role of sustainability indicators as an evaluation method for sustainability within the emerging context of governance merits further analysis focusing on policy processes surrounding the production of sustainability indicators this paper addresses two questions what is the potential utility of indicators for policy and in what ways can indicators influence governance the former is addressed by exploring three disciplines with long histories of indicator application public administration studies urban studies and environmental sciences the latter is addressed by distilling key perspectives from public policy literature on knowledge utilisation and policy learning which become the foundation for clarifying the notion of policy resonant indicators this clarification is achieved by canvassing the spectrum of the influences on indicators and the mechanisms of their resonance in policy processes the final section of the paper brings these arguments together by exploring two major insights in terms of challenges for ecological economics strengthening indicator theory and practice by addressing four key ingredients and mobilisation of indicators through their active use within the context of governance

a stated preference valuation of the non market benefits of pollination services in the uk using a choice experiment survey this study examines the uk public s willingness to pay to conserve insect pollinators in relation to the levels of two pollination service benefits maintaining local produce supplies and the aesthetic benefits of diverse wildflower assemblages willingness to pay was estimated using a bayesian mixed logit with two contrasting controls for attribute non attendance exclusion and shrinkage the results suggest that the uk public have an extremely strong preference to avoid a status quo scenario where pollinator populations and pollination services decline total willingness to pay was high and did not significantly vary between the two pollination service outputs producing a conservative total of 379m over a sample of the tax paying population of the uk equivalent to 13 4 per uk taxpayer using a basic production function approach the marginal value of pollination services to these attributes is also extrapolated the study discusses the implications of these findings and directions for related future research into the non market value of pollination and other ecosystem services

an institutional framework for designing and monitoring ecosystem based fisheries management policy experiments indicator systems are seen as central tools for ecosystem based fisheries management helping to steer fisheries towards sustainability by providing timely and useful information to decision makers without testing hypotheses about the links between policies and outcomes however indicator systems may do little more than promote ad hoc policies possibly even prolonging the transition to sustainable fisheries the institutional analysis and development iad framework is a robust framework that has been used extensively to design policy experiments and empirically test theories and models linking ecological economic systems institutions and the sustainability of common pool resource systems a modified iad framework is developed that transparently encompasses both process oriented pressure state response psr and structurally oriented sustainable livelihood indicator frameworks thus providing a platform for ecosystem based fisheries management policy experiment design and monitoring an institutional approach to fisheries management facilitates critical examination of important cross cutting issues including assumptions regarding what comprises sustainability and how market government and civil society organizations use strategic investments in capital assets and institutions to achieve sustainability objectives the emphasis on capital assets keeps attention on the relative merits of alternative investment options in policy experiments

family farm sustainability in southern brazil an application of agri environmental indicators abstract this paper investigates the sustainability of agroecological and conventional agriculture on small farms in southern brazil a methodology was developed to identify agri environmental indicators of the environmental economic and social dimensions of the farming systems the criteria used for selecting sustainability indicators were policy relevance measurability validity analytical soundness level of aggregation communication to the user based on these criteria indicators were selected for natural financial physical human and social capital assets the research identified external indicators those relevant to researcher policy makers and internal indicators those relevant to the resource users the two sets were combined and data relevant to the selected indicators were collected from secondary sources and also direct from farmers through a small scale sample survey after analysing the data indicators were selected for each capital asset to generate a multi criteria assessment of sustainability at three scales farm local and regional the analysis provided evidence of ecological and social advantages of ecological farms but financial disadvantages associated with the cost of alternative marketing arrangements for agroecological produce the paper draws conclusions about the usefulness of indicators in the assessment of farming sustainability and possibilities for wider application

capitals and capabilities a framework for analyzing peasant viability rural livelihoods and poverty abstract on the basis of themes emerging in current debates on rural development in latin america this paper develops an analytical framework for analyzing rural livelihoods in terms of their sustainability and their implications for rural poverty the framework argues that our analyses of rural livelihoods need to understand them in terms of a people s access to five types of capital asset b the ways in which they combine and transform those assets in the building of livelihoods that as far as possible meet their material and their experiential needs c the ways in which people are able to expand their asset bases through engaging with other actors through relationships governed by the logics of the state market and civil society and d the ways in which they are able to deploy and enhance their capabilities both to make living more meaningful and to change the dominant rules and relationships governing the ways in which resources are controlled distributed and transformed in society particular attention is paid to the importance of social capital as an asset through which people are able to widen their access to resources and other actors

do environmental benefits matter evidence from a choice experiment among house owners in germany residential buildings strongly contribute to global co2 emissions due to the high energy demand for electricity and heating particularly in industrialised countries within the eu decentralised heat generation is of particular relevance for future climate policy as its emissions are not covered by the eu ets we conducted a choice experiment concerning energy retrofits for existing houses in germany in the experiment the approximately 400 sampled house owners could either choose a modern heating system or an improved thermal insulation for their home we used standard and mixed logit specifications to analyse the choice data we found environmental benefits to have a significant impact on choices of heating systems however they played no role in terms of insulation choices based on the estimated mixed logit model we further obtained willingness to pay wtp measures for co2 savings

preferences for distributional impacts of climate policy what role do people think distributional aspects should play in the design of climate policy the literature assessing climate policies has shown that assumptions regarding peoples distributional preferences for climate change policy impacts are central for policy assessment but empirical evidence for such preferences is lacking we design a discrete choice experiment that varies how climate policies affect the income of future generations living in three geographical regions with distinctly different current and predicted future income levels the experiment is implemented on a sample of the danish population and preferences are modelled in a latent class model our results show that a small majority of the sample 60 hold preferences consistent with inequity aversion with respect to future income effects of climate policies across regions for the same group we find that preferences for co benefits for current generations reflect a form of altruism but not inequity aversion in both cases the altruistic aspects are moderated by an element of preferences for positive outcomes in own region too the remaining classes display preferences with a varying focus on impacts in their own region or simply no support for further climate policy our results provide some support for the inclusion of social preferences regarding distributional effects of climate change policies in policy assessments and hence for the significant impact on policy this inclusion will have

the demand for environmental quality in driving transitions to low polluting energy sources the purpose of this paper is to understand the long run demand for energy related environmental quality its influence on legislation and on transitions to low polluting energy sources it starts by presenting a simple framework of the relationship between the demand for and supply of environmental quality environmental legislation and energy this forms the structure for presenting a series of episodes in british history where a demand for improvements in energy related environmental quality existed this analysis proposes that markets can drive transitions to low polluting energy sources in specific economic conditions however most probably governments will need to push them and this cannot be expected without strong and sustained demand for environmental improvements yet while demand is a prerequisite it is not enough it must also be spearheaded by strong creative and sustained pressure groups i e powerful lobbying and the weakening of the counter lobby to introduce legislation to enforce it and to avoid it being over turned by future governments

altruism moral norms and social approval joint determinants of individual offset behavior we provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of individual offset behavior with environmental offsets as a specific form of voluntary public good provision while existing theoretical models on the voluntary provision of public goods usually focus exclusively on single motivations for individual contributions we explicitly account for various motivations in a unified framework drawing on theories for public good provision such as pure and impure altruism internalized norms and social approval such an approach is particularly useful when individual offset behavior is heterogeneous the applicability of our theoretical framework is supported by data from a choice experiment on voluntary carbon offsetting in switzerland and the usa we find that willingness to pay for offsets mainly depends on an individual s internalized norms to avoid environmental degradation as well as partly on income the probability to offset instead is better explained by an individual s expected social recognition for offsetting

choice modelling approaches a superior alternative for environmental valuation in this paper we examine some popular choice modelling approaches to environmental valuation which can be considered as alternatives to more familiar valuation techniques based on stated preferences such as the contingent valuation method a number of choice modelling methods are consistent with consumer theory and its focus on an attribute based theory of value permits a superior representation of many environmental management contexts however choice modelling surveys can place a severe cognitive burden upon respondents and induce satisficing rather than maximising behavioural patterns in this framework we seek to identify the best available choice modelling alternative and investigate its potential to solve some of the major biases associated with standard contingent valuation we then discuss its use in the light of policy appraisal needs within the eu an application to the demand for rock climbing in scotland is provided as an illustration

willingness to pay for carbon offset certification and co benefits among high flying young adults in the uk voluntary carbon offsets represent a growing share of the carbon market as a whole and have the potential to contribute to meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and reducing anthropogenic climate change certain offset project types may also deliver co benefits including safeguarding or promoting biodiversity supporting human development and poverty reduction and enabling market and technology development in low carbon sectors these co benefits might encourage consumers to participate in the voluntary offset market depending on their effects both on consumers willingness to pay wtp for offsets and on implementation costs however the offset market is not yet sufficiently developed to give a clear indication of consumer wtp for offsets with varying attributes this exploratory stated preference study therefore uses a choice experiment to estimate wtp for certified and uncertified offsets with or without these specific co benefits in an aviation context it is to the best of our knowledge the first to do so our results suggest that uptake of voluntary offsets may be encouraged by investing in projects with co benefits and by emphasising those co benefits to consumers they also suggest that certification regimes will add value to offsets helping compensate for increased costs provided that consumers are made fully aware of them

contingent valuation controversies and evidence contingent valuation cv has become one of the most widely used non market valuation techniques cv s prominence is due to its flexibility and ability to estimate total value including passive use value its use and the inclusion of passive use value in benefit cost analyses and environ mental litigation are the subject of a contentious debate this paper discusses key areas of the debate over cv and the validity of passive use value we conclude that many of the alleged problems with cv can be resolved by careful study design and implementation we further conclude that claims that empirical cv findings are theoretically inconsistent are not generally supported by the literature the debate over cv however has clarified several key issues related to nonmarket valuation and can provide useful guidance both to cv practitioners and the users of cv results

classifying carbon credit buyers according to their attitudes towards and involvement in cdm sustainability labels abstract carbon markets are increasingly conscious of the social and environmental quality of credits delivered by cdm projects consequently carbon credits are no longer viewed as a homogenous good and buyers now differentiate between credits supplied by different types of cdm project the objective of this paper is to classify cer buyers according to their attitudes towards and preferences for cdm sustainability labels k means clustering was used to segment a sample of buyers into two clusters the results indicate that two clear clusters exist with distinct profile patterns moreover the results of discriminant analysis confirmed that the two cluster solution was valid finally the results of the chi square analysis and a cross tabulation showed that these two clusters were significantly different in organization type level of paid up capital perception of sustainable development benefits perception of return on investment perception of image of the sustainability labeling participation in the voluntary market the project priority knowledge in the sustainability label attitude towards the host country s duty and their willingness to pay

policy v individual heterogeneity in the benefits of climate change mitigation evidence from a stated preference survey abstract we use stated preference methods to investigate the public s preferences for decarbonization policies we ask three research questions first does the willingness to pay wtp for each ton of co2 emissions reductions depend on the policies and on individual characteristics of the respondents second how extensive is the variation associated with these factors third what factors affect support for or opposition to a carbon tax based on the responses to discrete choice experiments from a sample of italians we find that the wtp per ton of co2 ranges between zero and 230 the variation associated with the policy instrument is approximately of the same order of magnitude as that associated with individual characteristics of the respondents

can defaults save the climate evidence from a field experiment on carbon offsetting programs individual preferences for environmental policies can be influenced by the frame in which choices and decisions are presented in this paper we present results of a field experiment on the contributions to carbon offsetting programs under two alternative treatments for the default option the opt in treatment asked subjects to pay for the policy proposal while the opt out treatment asked subjects if they wanted to be excluded from payment for the policy proposal the results show that the frame of the default option had a significant effect on the amount of money paid for the policy proposal subjects were more likely to accept the policy proposal if the default option was the opt out treatment the results have implications for the design of environmental policies

stated versus revealed knowledge determinants of offsetting co2 emissions from fuel consumption in vehicle use abstract this paper examines the role of prior knowledge in offsetting co2 emissions from fuel consumption in vehicle use the main result of our econometric analysis on the basis of unique representative data from drivers license holders in the usa and germany refers to the strong discrepancy between the stated and revealed knowledge of co2 offsetting the revealed knowledge measured by the correct estimation of the costs for this offsetting practice has a positive impact on the stated purchase of corresponding offsetting credits in both countries in contrast the effect of the stated knowledge of offsetting is not robust and in some cases even negative surprisingly it cannot even be confirmed that drivers license holders who claim that they are more than sufficiently informed estimate these costs more accurately

sustainability analysis of ecological and conventional agricultural systems in bangladesh summary this paper examines the sustainability of conventional and ecological agricultural systems based on their environmental soundness economic viability and social acceptability significant differences were found in crop diversification soil fertility management pests and diseases management and use of agrochemicals no remarkable variations were found in land use pattern crop yield and stability financial and economic returns risk and uncertainties or food security the findings suggest that ecological agriculture is relatively more sustainable and it could be an economically and environmentally viable alternative to the conventional agricultural system ecological agriculture could become an alternative if market distortions created by subsidies were removed and financial benefits were provided to resource conserving farmers along with necessary support through extension credit research and marketing 2003 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

how carbon offsetting scheme impacts the duopoly output in production and abatement analysis in the context of carbon cap and trade abstract in the context of addressing climate change the carbon emission trading scheme has become one of the main measures adopted by many countries and regions to achieve emission reduction goals noticing this current lack of research based on a duopoly model this paper quantitatively explores the impact of carbon offsetting scheme on both emission trading participants profits and industry s output by drawing on advanced experience of carbon offsetting scheme from developed countries such as us switzerland and eu and thus provides a perspective for government to design optimal aggregate standard for carbon cap and trade results show a negative correlation between enterprises carbon intensity and their equilibrium output in the product market and indicate a threshold for the relative magnitude of the duopoly enterprises carbon intensity above which their absolute output will differ dramatically the incorporation of carbon offsetting scheme into a non offset quota trading scheme will reduce its equilibrium carbon price thereby mitigate its negative impact on industry s total output in the product market by an either linear or quadratic form depending on the design for the proportion ceiling of offsetting quota

the solar photovoltaic feed in tariff scheme in new south wales australia solar photovoltaic pv electricity systems are part of australia s energy supply matrix in the case of new south wales nsw the state government has had to deal with a complex policy problem in order to play its role in the federal small scale renewable energy scheme the nsw government initiated the 7 year solar bonus scheme in 2010 however in attempting to maximise community investment in small scale solar pv systems it relied on faulty financial modelling that applied a generous feed in tariff fit and underestimated the level of investor participation and installed capacity consequently the scheme has resulted in very high public costs that will require policy changes that bring investors and energy retailers into conflict and unpopular electricity retail price adjustments this paper uses a structured case and stakeholder analysis to critically analyse the fit policy while also highlighting important lessons for policymakers engaging in fit design

offsetting versus mitigation activities to reduce hbox co _ 2 emissions a theoretical and empirical analysis for the u s and germany this paper studies the voluntary provision of public goods that is partially driven by a desire to offset for individual polluting activities we first extend existing theory and show that offsets allow a reduction in effective environmental pollution levels while not necessarily extending the consumption of a polluting good we further discuss the impact of an increased environmental preference on purchases of offsets and mitigation activities several theoretical results are then econometrically tested using a novel dataset on activities to reduce hbox co 2 emissions for the case of vehicle purchases in the u s and germany we show that environmental preference triggers the stated use of hbox co 2 offsetting and mitigation channels in both countries however we find strong country differences for the stated purchase of hbox co 2 offsets while such activities are mainly triggered by a high general awareness of the climate change problem in the u s the perception that road travel is responsible for hbox co 2 emissions to a large extent is more important for driver s license holders in germany

recreation demand models with taste differences over people we estimate random parameter logit models of anglers choice of fishing site the models generalize logit by allowing coefficients to vary randomly over anglers rather than being fixed the models do not exhibit the restrictive independence from irrelevant alternatives property of logit and can represent any substitution pattern estimation explicitly accounts for the fact that the variation in coefficients over anglers induces correlation in unobserved utility over trips by the same angler willingness to pay for improved fish stock and the value to anglers of specific sites are calculated from the models and compared with the estimates obtained from a standard logit model

the demand for climate protection empirical evidence from germany abstract an experiment designed to find the real demand for climate protection was conducted among a sample of the residential population in mannheim germany participants were offered the opportunity to contribute to climate protection by purchasing european union allowances which were then withdrawn from the european emissions trading scheme our experiment showed a median willingness to pay wtp of zero and a mean wtp of approximately 12 t co 2

train travel passengers willingness to pay to offset their co2 emissions in korea abstract due to the upsurge in concerns regarding climate change the carbon market has been growing more rapidly than ever recently a more innovative and experimental voluntary carbon market has been playing a supplementary role to the compliance market which is lacking in flexibility and diversity and has been accounting for an increasingly larger portion of the carbon market among the efforts to accumulate data and develop appropriate policies for the voluntary carbon market it is necessary to analyze the benefits of carbon offsets for ghg emissions from railways this study attempts to apply contingent valuation cv to measure the public s willingness to pay wtp for voluntary carbon offsets vcos from railway travel in korea furthermore in order to enhance the statistical efficiency of the wtp estimation and reduce the response effect in the context of wtp elicitation this study employs a one and one half bound dichotomous choice format the estimate of the mean wtp for a vco program for a specific travel distance is estimated to be krw 1 345 usd 1 24 per person this quantitative information can be utilized to develop policies related to mitigating climate change

statistical approaches to the fat tail problem for dichotomous choice contingent valuation if a cumulative density function esti mated from dichotomous choice data has an unre alistically fat right hand tail mean willingness to pay wtp will be overestimated truncating the range of integration results in a lower bound esti mate of the true mean wtp a normalization pro cedure proposed by boyle welsh and bishop 1988 unnecessarily depresses the estimate further a new statistical approach is presented that allows a best guess estimate of mean wtp because this estimate involves extrapolation beyond the range of the data it tends to be highly variable jel q21

returns on investments in energy saving technologies under energy price uncertainty in dutch greenhouse horticulture conventional net presentvalue calculations evaluating the profitabilityof investments in energy saving technologies indutch horticultural outlays predict a muchhigher rate of adoption of these technologiesthan is actually observed this paper tries toexplain this gap by applying a real optionsframework hurdle rates for investments in twotypes of energy saving technology are estimatedusing simulated future revenue streams givenuncertainty regarding energy prices and energytax policies hurdle rates found in this wayare on average about 1 76 times the hurdlerates that result from net present valuecalculations furthermore this paper tests thepredictive value of the theory by estimating alogit model this model relates the incidenceof having invested in an energy savingtechnology to the difference between the returnon investment and the hurdle rate thepredictive power turns out to be encouraging as the statistical tests indicate that higherhurdle rates tend to reduce rates of technologyadoption