inventory investment and asymmetric adjustment some evidence for the uk abstract there is now a plethora of non linear time series models of output over the business cycle and considerable empirical evidence that there are key non linear poorly understood mechanisms at work though they account for a small part of the total flow of national income inventories play a disproportionately large role in fluctuations in output it would seem natural to try to determine what role inventories play in the non linear behaviour of the business cycle the first question is are there economic models of firm behaviour suggesting that the movement of inventories over the business cycle is non linear the second issue is whether we can detect such non linearity in the data in this paper we use data on the aggregate behaviour of uk manufacturing but disaggregated according to the stage of fabrication we find that the asymmetric adjustment of inventories varies with the stage of fabrication

environment technology and the social articulation of risk in west african agriculture two preoccupations are not mutually exclusive superficially they share the common concern that liberalization is insufficient to resolve the subsaharan food crisis at a deeper level the two preoccupations are more intimately interrelated via the correspondence that links initial wealth to risk exposure and to behavior in both production and asset accumulation a number of recent empirical studies of risk in low income countries find that households are able to employ their accumulated assets to smooth consumption in the face of adverse agricultural production shocks 3 missing from these studies is explicit attention to the fact that the effective risk from which households insulate consumption is not that of production shocks directly but of those shocks as socially articulated by institutions and property rights this article explores the creation and distribution of effective risk estimating how environment technology and social factors interact to construct it endogenously 4 put differently this article develops the notion that the risk from which households ex post try to insulate consumption is not an immutable natural or technical feature of the landscape as michael watt s contrast between precolonial and colonial nigeria forcefully demonstrates the effective risk presented by an unchanged set of environmental and technical circumstances can

switching regression models with imperfect sample separation information with an application on cartel stability an exogenous switching regression model with imperfect reginme classificationi information is specified and applied to a study of cartel stability an efficient estimation method is proposed which takes this imperfect information into account the consequences of misclassification are analyzed the direction of the least squares bias is derived an optimal regime classification rule is obtained and compared theoretically and empirically with other classification rules we then examine the joint executive committee a railroad cartel in the 1880 s the econometric evidence indicates that reversions to noncooperative behavior did occur for the firms in our sample and these reversions involve a significant decrease in market price this article is concerned with the possibility of estimating a switching regression model and its application to a study on cartel stability the switching regression model is the exogenous switching model proposed by quandt 24 which generalized a problem of mixture distributions day 4 the sample in this model is generated from distinct regression equations or regimes for each time period if the investigator has a priori information on how the sample is partitioned into the underlying regimes it is a switching regression model with known sample separation otherwise it is a model with unknown sample separation estimation of these latter models has been considered by quandt 24 goldfeld and quandt 8 and kiefer 14 16 among others a switching regression model is appropriate for the study of cartel behavior when there are price wars as firms will revert from cooperative to noncooperative behavior and so the industry supply function shifts occasionally this model will allow us to exploit the fact that there will be periodic stochastic switches or reversions between cooperative and noncooperative conduct in order to identify collusive episodes

financing constraints and reordering rules abstract constraints on external finance modify a simple inventory investment decision optimal policy is no action when cash holdings are less than threshold levels the control boundaries which are functions of the current level of inventories on the control boundaries additional cash is used for inventory replenishment when inventory holdings are below the level which would be held in the absence of financing constraints and for dividend payment when inventory holdings are equal to or exceed this level a fixed boundary at all inventory levels is used as an approximation to the fully optimal control allowing computation of the behaviour of aggregate inventory and cash holdings for a population of financially constrained firms there is a pronounced and extended dynamic response from inventory investment following aggregate disturbances to cash holdings to prices and to the standard error of the diffusion process for cash holdings this contrasts with the unconstrained case where such shocks have no effect on either inventory holdings or inventory investment

evaluating natural resource investments notwithstanding impressive advances in the theory of finance over the past 2 decades practical procedures for capital budgeting have evolved only slowly the standard technique which has remained unchanged in essentials since it was originally proposed see dean 1951 bierman and smidt 1960 derives from a simple adaptation of the fisher 1907 model of valuation under certainty under this technique expected cash flows from an investment project are discounted at a rate deemed appropriate to their risk and the resulting present value is compared with the cost of the project this standard textbook technique reflects modern theoretical developments only insofar as estimates of the discount rate may be obtained from crude application of single period asset pricing theory but see brennan 1973 bogue and roll 1974 turnbull 1977 constantinides 1978 the inadequacy of this approach to capital budgeting is widely acknowledged although not widely discussed its obvious deficiency is its the evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices it is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing and abandoning them the approach may be adapted to a wide variety of contexts outside the natural resource sector where uncertainty about future project revenues is a paramount concern

non linear target adjustment in corporate liquidity management an endogenous thresholds approach we provide new empirical evidence on nonlinear liquidity management in dutch firms our results reveal that liquidity adjustment from below the target is significantly faster than from above we find no evidence for bands of inaction around the target

firm value illiquidity risk and liquidity insurance abstract our interest here concerns liquidity supply to firms we first examine the relation between firm value and access to liquidity supply and then we investigate the existence conditions and efficiency properties of financial contracts with a liquidity covenant in a continuous time infinite horizon stochastic model of a repeated firm investors relationship where the key problem is the mutual commitment between the two parties to model this problem we consider liquidity supply as a stochastic regulator mechanism that prevents the firm s ability to pay from falling below a predefined threshold here the market fixed coupon and we then apply recent developments in dynamic programming techniques for regulated processes to obtain a close form solution for the firm s value our main finding is that efficient i e actuarially fair and renegotiation proof contracts emerge in the absence of perfect commitment as the firm and the investor can exert mutual threat of termination

collective action initiatives to improve marketing performance lessons from farmer groups in tanzania this study aims to examine the extent to which certain characteristics and asset endowments of smallholder farmer groups facilitate collective action initiatives to improve group marketing performance this is approached through an evaluation of a government led programme in tanzania which is attempting to increase smallholder farmers incomes and food security through a market oriented intervention findings suggest that more mature groups with strong internal institutions functioning group activities and a good asset base of natural capital are more likely to improve their market situation gender composition of groups also affects group marketing performance as an enabling factor for male dominated groups structural social capital in the form of membership in other groups and ties to external service providers and cognitive social capital in the form of intra group trust and altruistic behaviour are not significant factors in a group s ability to improve its market situation

costly monitoring financial intermediation and equilibrium credit rationing abstract this paper establishes a link between equilibrium credit rationing and financial intermediation in a model with asymmetrically informed lenders and borrowers costly monitoring and investment project indivisibilities intermediation is shown to dominate borrowing and lending between individuals and these financial intermediaries exhibit several of the important features of intermediaries as we know them equilibrium interest rates and the aggregate quantity of loans respond quite differently to changes in taste and technology parameters depending on whether or not there is rationing in equilibrium

the recovery of agricultural productivity in sub saharan africa abstract this paper presents a new view of cross country agricultural productivity in sub saharan africa for the first time the wheat units approach to output aggregation is applied to africa this approach avoids many of the problems caused by exchange rate distortion and related problems when international output comparisons are based on agricultural value added measures of agricultural productivity based on the wheat unit aggregates reveal a striking recovery of growth in agricultural productivity during the mid 1980s these results contrast sharply with those derived from standard output aggregates based on agricultural value added this contrast is true for both partial and total factor productivity analyses technical change measured by expenditures for agricultural research and macroeconomic reform which leads to improved economic incentives for agriculture might account for up to two thirds of this recovery if this explanation is correct it raises concerns for the sustainability of africa s recent gains reduced public investment in agricultural research for example reduces current fiscal deficits at the expense of future growth in productivity

a demand determined model of the residual fuel oil market abstract this paper examines several questions concerning the equilibrating nature of markets including the flexibility of the price mechanism in equating supply and demand and the impact of government price regulations the residual fuel oil market an important submarket of the us petroleum industry and one closely related to the natural gas market is used as a case study a variety of alternative models are examined both equilibrium and disequilibrium the most important results suggest that the residual fuel oil market should best be pictured using a disequilibrium model that emphasizes the role of inventories

a policy agenda for pro poor agricultural growth abstract sub saharan africa and parts of south asia are likely to hold large numbers of very poor rural people into the foreseeable future although both history and theory suggest a pre eminent role for agricultural growth in poverty reduction in poor agrarian economies such growth today faces new difficulties many of these difficulties are endogenous to today s poor rural areas others result from broader processes of global change but some are due to changes in the dominant policy environment emphasizing liberalization and state withdrawal examination of 20th century green revolutions suggests that active state interventions were important in supporting critical stages of agricultural market development unfortunately such interventions benefits in institutional development are easily overlooked whereas their high costs are much more visible policy implications are discussed

tomatoes land and hearsay property and history in asante in the time of structural adjustment abstract after a decade of advocating market based solutions to poverty and underdevelopment in sub saharan africa policy analysts have begun to reexamine the actual and potential role of african states and institutions in promoting sustainable development while stressing the importance of flexibility in policies and institutions much of this debate rests on ahistorical approaches to understanding african institutions which portray them as inflexible and fragile beleaguered by economic and political change rather than contributing to it after reviewing some of the assumptions which inform recent debates this essay argues for a more processual approach which takes account of the negotiability and ambiguity of many institutional arrangements drawing on a case study of recent changes in land rights and agricultural practices in a rural community in ghana

firm behaviour under the threat of liquidation abstract we study the optimal behaviour of a firm whose cash flow is determined by a diffusion process facing liquidation if internal cash balances fall below some threshold there is a conflict between the desire to pay dividends to satisfy shareholders and the need to retain cash as a barrier against possible liquidation stochastic optimal control characterises the value function and gives optimal decision rules for the firm the firm has a precautionary motive for retaining earnings the internal cost of funds and local risk aversion are both decreasing functions of cash held and in natural extensions to our model output and investment are both increasing functions of cash balances

the causes of africa s food crisis abstract this paper examines the causes of africa s food crisis by examining patterns of food imports the econometric results indicate that the rise in food imports during 1970 87 can be explained by a combination of demographic policy and economic factors which have raised domestic demand for imported food these factors include urban migration peaks in income especially during commodity booms lower international prices of food and distorted exchange rates after accounting for these factors the residual trend in food imports per capita is negative over this period evidence is also presented showing that in ghana policy reforms have led to reverse migration from urban to rural areas

trends in poverty and destitution in wollo ethiopia 1 abstract according to several studies poverty in rural ethiopia has fallen significantly since the early 1990s thanks to improved governance and economic liberalisation policies this paper presents several arguments that challenge this view the first questions the methodological foundations of the data from which these positive trends are derived we argue that the original sampling frame was too small and unrepresentative to provide a basis for extrapolating national poverty levels or trends the second argument questions the conceptual underpinnings of these studies poverty estimates based on levels of current consumption fail to allow for non income dimensions of wellbeing nor for confounding factors such as seasonality annual rainfall and food aid receipts the third strand considers alternative sources of data on changes in wellbeing in ethiopia recent qualitative studies report that the poor perceive themselves as poorer and more vulnerable than poverty headcount figures suggest finally we

transition in sub saharan africa agriculture urbanization and income growth abstract econometric analysis of some 40 years of data has provided mixed results because of the defects of the data and because there are some relatively sudden structural economic shifts an important shift is when agricultural labor ceases to grow now happening in sub saharan africa ssa a model of the interrelationship over time of the rural mainly agricultural sector and the urban mainly manufacturing and service sector is proposed each provides a market to the other growth in both requires investment but of distinctly different types their interaction results in an s shaped curve many ssa countries are in the acceleration phase and its agriculture particularly in semi arid areas is increasingly oriented to the growing home market case studies show farmers have invested and adopted new technologies but the transition to an urbanized economy has been hindered by poor policies the current need is for appropriate investments and policies to develop the productivity of the urban sectors so that they can continue to stimulate agriculture and provide jobs for those who are leaving farming

food marketing and pricing policy in eastern and southern africa a survey abstract this article surveys the empirical record of grain marketing and pricing policy in eastern and southern africa over 1930 1995 the paper addresses five key issues with major implications for food policy throughout africa a why the anticipated supply response to market liberalization has not yet occurred b why the common assumption of state taxation of farmers to support a cheap food policy does not apply in most of the countries in the region c why the temporary successes of the state led approach to stimulating smallholder grain production were unsustainable d why the elimination of government food subsidies associated with market reform has not adversely affected consumers and e why the fiscal cost of the marketing systems at least initially worsened rather than improved after the reforms were implemented in most countries the key future challenges for marketing policy are how to develop coordinated and financially sustainable input finance and commodity marketing systems for raising productivity growth in smallholder agriculture while overcoming inherited agricultural dualism and how to mitigate the effects of food price instability in a cost effective manner

deregulation endogenous expectations and the evolution of industry structure this analysis of deregulation as a government directed switch of regime from monopoly to competition treats the incumbent producer as a monopolist who anticipates that deregulation will occur at some future date and result in the deployment of substitutes producing a competitive environment the results suggest that the ceiling for the rise in world gas prices will fall capping any domestic price rise the model indicates that any drop in world prices will be moderated by an incumbent producer e g opec who uses market variables like price to improve his forecast of competitive entry when the incumbent recognizes that higher monopoly prices raise the probability of entry the resulting monopoly path of prices will lie closer to the postulated path of initial competitive prices resulting in a less substantial drop in price when the switch of regime actually occurs 27 references

opaque bank assets and optimal equity capital abstract banks assets are opaque and therefore we model their true accounting asset values as partially observed variables we derive a stochastic control model to optimize banks dividend and recapitalization policies in this situation and calibrate that to a sample of u s banks by the calibrated model the noise in reported accounting asset values hides about one third of the true asset return volatility and raises the banks market equity value by 7 8 particularly those banks with a high level of loan loss provisions nonperforming assets and real estate loans and with a low volatility of reported total assets have noisy accounting asset values because of the substantial shock on the true asset values the banks assets were more opaque during the recent financial crisis

supplier induced demand a disequilibrium test this paper tests the hypothesis of market disequilibrium and supplier induced demand in the market for physicians services using canadian data from the period prior to the introduction of national health insurance the results support the hypothesis of disequilibrium with rapid upward adjustment of fees in the face of excess demand and extremely slow downward adjustment of fees in response to excess supply they do not support the hypothesis that physicians induced demand in the face of an excess supply of services

saving and liquidity constraints this paper is concerned with the theory of saving when consumers are not permitted to borrow and with the ability of such a theory to account for some of the stylized facts of saving behavior the models presented in the paper seem to account for important aspects of reality that are not explained by traditional life cycle models copyright 1991 by the econometric society

the commercialization of agriculture and household level food security the case of southwestern kenya abstract results from a 1984 1985 study in south nyanza kenya to evaluate the effects of shifting from maize to sugarcane production on household level food security are presented household food security is not jeopardized by the entry into commercial agriculture the area allocated to subsistence food production is similar for sugar and non sugar producing households incomes of sugarcane producers are significantly higher than non cane producers and a portion of this incremental income is used to increase household caloric intake the conventional wisdom that the transition to commercial agriculture causes a deterioration in household level food security is not borne out by the results from the present study

comparing contracts an evaluation of contract farming schemes in africa abstract the sufferings of so many small farmers in africa who produce on contract have been well recorded and analyzed yet it seems that such production will continue to expand can governments and nongovernment organizations ngos take any action to reduce the suffering we examine our own experience of contract farming in nigeria and south africa in the context of earlier research and draw attention to important issues which have received little attention in the literature notably staffing of schemes farmers previous experience with multinational national companies mncs water control and labor issues we make recommendations toward codes of practice which could be issued to companies regulators and small farmers

interpreting changes from the 1970s to the 1990s in african agriculture through village studies abstract assessments of the performance of agriculture in sub saharan africa are typically based on official production statistics at national level between the early 1970s and the mid 1990s these often show alarmingly poor rates of growth but there are good reasons to doubt the statistics and their interpretation an alternative is to examine the record from the village level upward this paper looks at the evidence from 26 case studies of change between the mid 1970s and the mid 1980s at the district or village level these suggest less cause for alarm than the national statistics they confirm that access to markets is essential for agricultural development the single biggest idea in the policy reforms of the 1980s but they also underline the importance of the detail of policy in remedying failures in product capital and insurance markets and in public investment in technology

deregulation as a switch of regime price effects using a modified hotelling rule abstract concern over rising energy prices has led to support for government intervention to regulate the price of domestic non renewable energy resources however us policy makers appear to be looking more towards competition rather than regulation to decide who will provide energy resources and how these will be priced this paper models possible dynamic price effects occasioned by the removal of a regulatory constraint the analysis focuses on a government decision to eliminate binding price ceilings on a non renewable energy substitute when the incumbent resource is monopolistically controlled using deregulation of natural gas as an illustration under certain conditions it is shown that one will get continuity of marginal revenue and a fall in the world price following decontrol the expiration of a patent or a decision to grant mineral rights on federal land in general however the model suggests that both marginal revenue and prices will be discontinuous and that the discontinuity is likely to result in a fall in price

impacts of devaluation on senegalese households policy implications abstract in january 1994 the franc cfa was devaluated from 50 to 100 fcfa to the french franc this article uses detailed income and expenditure data to simulate the impact of the devaluation on real household income and identify the groups in senegal that are most damaged urban households are hit hardest because they consume large quantities of imported rice and do not earn income from exportables surprisingly one rural area is as negatively affected as the urban areas one experiences no change and a third realizes only a small 5 increase in real income these small or negative affects occur because consumption of imported rice is high which is still the case a year after devaluation and income from the production of exportable peanuts is low relatively strong positive impacts 14 16 increase in real income were realized only in the two zones where peanuts account for a large share of total income about 50 this is perhaps a more negative or in some cases ambiguous impact in rural areas than we think policymakers expected the difference from expectations is due to the higher than expected levels of rice consumption and the lower than expected shares of income earned from peanut production these two facts together lead to a greater negative demand side effect and smaller positive supply side effects of devaluation in several rural zones attention should be given to 1 policies to protect vulnerable groups and 2 policies to stimulate investment by groups realizing short run increases in income thereby channeling the short run benefits into actions that will foster long run economic growth

the long run relationship between interest rates and inflation some cross country evidence abstract this paper analyzes the effect of anticipated inflation on nominal interest rates paying special attention to the stability of this relationship over various regimes these regimes are analyzed to find out whether the inflation forecastability proposition recently advanced by barsky explains the observed poor performance of the fisher equation with historical data the analyses make use of the so called threshold and digression models and data from 11 western countries for 1875 1984 the main result of this paper is that the forecastability proposition does not explain the weakness of the anticipated inflation effect on interest rates rather various institutional factors seem to be of more importance

too much investment a problem of asymmetric information this paper shows that under plausible assumptions the inability of lenders to discover all of the relevant characteristics of borrowers results in investment in excess of the socially efficient level raising the rate of interest above the free market level will restore optimality this conflicts with generally held views and is contrasted with the stiglitz weiss model it is shown that the assumptions which yield overinvestment support debt as the equilibrium method of finance however under the stiglitz weiss assumptions used to derive an underinvestment result equity is shown to be the equilibrium method of finance

peasant household modelling farming systems evolution and sustainability in northern zambia chitemene slash and burn cultivation continues to be a dominating cropping system in northern zambia even after the introduction of modern technologies such as hybrid maize and fertilizer the rationale of farming systems evolution in northern zambia where labour markets have been absent or highly imperfect has been analyzed by goal programming based on the theories of chayanov 1966 and nakajima 1986 carrying capacity estimation is incorporated in the models and discussed in relation to the sustainability of land use systems in the area the major changes in agricultural technologies in northern zambia during this century has been the introduction of cassava maize and fertilizer technologies cassava has had the most significant impact since the land could support much higher population densities and since the dependence on the chitemene system no longer was critical for the survival of peasants by switching from finger millet to cassava as the main staple the peasants could reduce their total labour requirement to meet their basic food needs by as much as 40 the results also show that the maize fertilizer technology has been unable to replace the chitemene system because economic incentives to continue the system exist as long as there is suitable woodland available nevertheless the introduction of the maize fertilizer technology may have resulted in reduced chitemene cultivation the rapid expansion of maize production in northern zambia from the late 70s to the late 80s depended critically on the government policy of equity pricing and input subsidisation the models predicted that the removal of fertilizer subsidies would result in a dramatic reduction in maize production

the shadow costs of repos and bank liability structure making use of a structural model that allows for optimal liquidity management we study the role that repos play in a bank s financing structure in our model the bank s assets consist of illiquid loans and liquid reserves and are financed by a combination of repos long term debt deposits and equity repos are a cheap source of funding but they are subject to an exogenous rollover risk we show that the use of repos inflicts two types of indirect shadow costs on the bank s shareholders first it induces the bank to maintain higher liquid reserves in order to alleviate the additional default risk second it adds to the cost of long term debt financing these shadow costs limit the bank s appetite for cheap but unstable repo funding this effect is however weakened under poor returns on risky assets access to deposit funding and the depositor preference rule we also analyze the impact of a liquidity coverage ratio payout restrictions and a leverage ratio on the bank s financing choices and show that all these tools are able to curb the bank s reliance on repos

the effects of external financing costs on investment timing and sizing decisions abstract we develop a dynamic model in which a firm exercises an option to expand production on either a small or large scale with cash reserves and costly external funds an intermediate level of cash reserves which is insufficient for the large scale investment but sufficient for the small scale investment provides an incentive for the firm to invest early in the small scale project these results fill the gap between two types of results i empirical findings of a u shaped relation between the investment volume and internal funds and ii empirical predictions of a u shaped relation between the investment timing and internal funds in addition our results have real world implications for investment in alternative projects

small scale partial equilibrium model of natural gas markets responses to alternative deregulation scenarios and oil price changes a small scale model of natural gas markets explains regulated gas prices using past changes in residual fuel oil prices the study examines three different accelerated complete wellhead gas decontrol scenarios to find the impact of current law immediate decontrol and accelerated decontrol it finds that accelerated decontrol simply shifts price increases forward with minor impact while the revenue transfers are fairly substantial a windfall profits tax could capture much of this transfer but the revenues from such a tax would decrease sharply by the end of the period 23 references 4 figures 8 tables

a time of agric rethinking the failure of agricultural programs in 1970s ghana summary recent interest in a new green revolution in africa has revived debate about state intervention in agricultural markets and biotechnology these debates take for granted that the first wave of green revolution interventions in africa failed to influence small scale food farmers this essay uses oral historical and documentary evidence from ghana s northern region to revisit the evidentiary basis of this assessment tracing how the production of aggregate data and changing interpretive frameworks in the 1970s and 1980s allowed policymakers to ignore the experiences of farmers the essay advocates for the role of micro historical analysis in assessing africa s recent agricultural past

livelihood strategies and dynamics in rural cambodia summary this paper addresses one of the major challenges in rural livelihood analysis to quantitatively examine the dynamics of household livelihood strategies it investigates the interactions between livelihood assets activities and outcomes and captures the dynamics of long term changes and their underlying factors the study aims to identify the classification of rural livelihood strategies their transitions and factors influencing these processes and changes we employ the dynamic livelihood strategy framework and use panel data for 2008 and 2012 covering 464 households in 15 villages in cambodia for latent class cluster analysis and regression estimation in this paper livelihood strategies are quantified based on allocation of available resources which overcomes the limitations of income based analysis our study identifies five household livelihood strategies pursued in the study areas and the results show that over 70 of households change livelihood strategies over time in response to evolving pressures incentives and opportunities the study identifies covariates that shape the choices of livelihood strategies and affects the households access to more remunerative strategies such as education ownership of physical assets and access to infrastructure these findings suggest policy implications for improving the range of livelihood choices available to lower income groups to move out of poverty trap

financial capacity and output fluctuations in an economy with multi period financial relationships this paper motivates a financial propagation mechanism in the context of an intertemporal production economy with asymmetric information and with borrowers and lenders who enter multi period financial relationships a key feature is that aggregate output and borrowers financial capacity the maximum overhang of past debt they may feasibly carry are determined jointly much in the spirit of gurley and shaw 1955 expectations of future economic conditions govern financial capacity which in turn may constrain current production especially in bad times a small but persistent shift in aggregate conditions may have a large impact on financial capacity making the framework capable of motivating large endogenous fluctuations in financial constraints understanding how small disturbances can induce large output fluctuations is an on going quest in macroeconomics this paper develops a simple framework in which shifts in aggregate economic fundamentals are amplified through their impact on financial conditions a distinguishing feature is that output and borrowers financial capacity the maximum overhang of past debt they may feasibly carry are determined jointly much in the spirit of gurley and shaw 1955 expectations of future economic conditions govern financial capacity and financial capacity may constrain current production especially in bad times a number of recent papers have resurrected the view that financial factors may play a part in propagating business fluctuations the underlying theories exploit the idea that with asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders agency costs may drive the price of uncollateralized external funds above the price of internal funds in this kind of setting a borrower s financial position is a key determinant of the terms of credit she faces in the aggregate swings in borrower balance sheets over the cycle amplify fluctuations in investment and output essentially by inducing counter cyclical movements in the required premium for external finance this simple mechanism is broadly consistent with informal descriptions of how financial and real variables interacted in the great depression bernanke 1983 and in the postwar business cycles eckstein and sinai 1986 in addition numerous recent panel data studies beginning with fazzari hubbard and peterson 1988 support the notion of a financial investment accelerator mechanism

deagrarianization and rural employment in sub saharan africa a sectoral perspective abstract sub saharan africa is steadily becoming less rural in character for decades development thinking has prescribed industrialization as the virtuous path leading away from economic dependence on agriculture but africa s industrial record has been plagued with underperformance an alternative perspective centered on the process of deagrarianization and attendant rural employment generation may offer more explanatory power and policy direction this paper outlines key theoretical components and practical concerns of a deagrarianization approach the nature and incidence of deagrarianization in sub saharan africa is contrasted with that experienced in developed industrial countries conceptual approaches dealing with rural non agricultural employment are identified within different social science disciplines through a thematic review of the literature the conclusion highlights the need for more focused study of the deagrarianization process and rural service sector development

bank capital interbank contagion and bailout policy abstract this paper develops a theoretical framework in which asset linkages in a syndicated loan agreement can infect a healthy bank when its partner bank fails we investigate how capital constraints affect the choice of the healthy bank to takeover or liquidate the exposure held jointly with the failing bank and how the bank s ex ante optimal capital holding and possibility of contagion are affected by anticipation of bail out policy capital requirements and the joint exposure we identify a range of factors that strengthen or weaken the possibility of contagion and bailout recapitalization with common stock rather than preferred equity injection dilutes existing shareholder interests and gives the bank a greater incentive to hold capital to cope with potential contagion increasing the minimum regulatory capital does not necessarily reduce contagion while the requirement of holding conservation capital buffer could increase the bank s resilience to avoid contagion

slack shortage and discouraged consumers in eastern europe estimates based on smoothing by aggregation as a consequence of aggregation over markets the observed quantity may be less than the quantity demanded and less than the quantity supplied to deal with such situations a new technique is proposed for estimating demand and supply curves and the extent of shortage and slack the technique is applied to the consumption goods markets of czechoslovakia the german democratic republic hungary poland and yugoslavia it is found that shortage even corrected for a discouraged consumer effect is seldom as great as slack

african re agrarianization accumulation or pro poor agricultural growth recent signs of increasing agricultural production in a number of countries in sub saharan africa are by some commentators connected to local level differentiation this paper discusses such interpretations using household level longitudinal data from smallholder households in eight african countries for the period between 2002 and 2008 the use of a mixed methods social science approach complements traditional economic approaches through adding a spatial perspective pro poor agricultural growth so far is concentrated to particular villages where it is highly inclusive the policy challenge remains to devise strategies that can enhance growth also in marginal areas

the likelihood function and a test for serial correlation in a disequilibrium market model abstract the likelihood function for an econometric disequilibrium market model of fair and jaffee with autocorrelated disturbances is derived a statistic is introduced for the test of serial correlation in such a model the statistic can be regarded as generalization of the durbin watson statistic

dividends and leverage how to optimally exploit a non renewable investment in this paper we model the situation where a non renewable investment is given for instance a resource reservoir and show how to optimally trade off between dividends and leverage in order to maximize a performance indicator for shareholders up to the bankruptcy time we then study the way market risk the volatility of the market price of the resource impacts the optimal policies and the default risk of the company the moments when the policies are rebalanced are analyzed and we give a measure of the agency costs which appear between the shareholders and the debt holders

simulation based stress tests of banks regulatory capital adequacy abstract banks holding of reasonable capital buffers in excess of minimum requirements could alleviate the procyclicality problem potentially exacerbated by the rating sensitive capital charges of basel ii determining the sufficient buffer size is an important risk management task for banks which the basel committee suggests should be approached via stress testing we present here a simulation based approach to stress testing of regulatory capital adequacy where rating transitions are conditioned on business cycle phase and which takes into account business cycle dynamics our approach is an extension of a typical credit portfolio analysis in that we simulate actual bank capital and minimum capital requirements simultaneously actual bank capital absent mark to market accounting is driven by bank income and default losses whereas capital requirements within basel ii are driven by rating transitions the joint dynamics of these determine the necessary capital buffers given a confidence level for regulatory capital adequacy chosen by bank management we provide a tentative calibration of this confidence level to data on actual bank capital ratios which enables a ceteris paribus extrapolation of bank capital under the current regime to bank capital under basel ii

the dynamic effects of firm level borrowing constraints in this paper i develop a detailed dynamic model of firm behavior in order to see whether financial constraints and endogenous exit are important propagation mechanisms to do this i construct an economy where firms face financial constraints fixed costs and persistent idiosyncratic shocks using numerical methods i analyzehowa large collection of these firmsresponds to aggregate productivity shocks a common result is that financial constraints tend to dampen the economy s initial response to aggregate productivity shocks but equity accumulation and exit dynamics amplify the longer term response the relative sizes of these two effects however are sensitive to firms environments

integrated pest management for resource poor african farmers is the emperor naked abstract the success of integrated pest management ipm with rice in asia has not been replicated with staple smallholder food crops in sub saharan africa this is variously blamed on inadequate extension underinvestment in agricultural research and unfavorable government policies this article argues that it reflects the slow progress of africa s green revolution which has reduced economic incentives for chemical forms of crop protection and thus the potential cost savings from the adoption of ipm strategies in this context ipm must re think its approach ipm is more likely to be adopted by resource poor african farmers if it focuses on host plant resistance and biological control high value commodities and helps meet farmers wider objectives of increasing household food security and earning cash income the argument is illustrated from secondary literature and recent project experience in southern malawi

promoting sustainable intensification and productivity growth in sahel agriculture after macroeconomic policy reform abstract policy reforms and structural adjustment programs in sahelian countries have eliminated many public agricultural support programs creating a vacuum that has not yet been filled by the private sector sahelian farmers thus face more difficult access to inputs and higher input costs input use has stagnated or declined yet higher population and less land for expansion of cultivation make it vital to increase the productivity of already cultivated land through adoption of intensive agricultural production techniques while partial intensification is becoming common too little investment is occurring in inputs and land improvements that maintain soil fertility control erosion and improve water availability partial intensification therefore risks being an unsustainable strategy higher and more sustainable productivity growth requires significantly increased use of chemical and organic fertilizer improved seeds bunds and animal traction the dilemma is how to ensure that such investments are financially and economically profitable and affordable in terms of government budgets it is crucial to 1 improve input access and reduce the unit cost of inputs to farmers through infrastructure investment 2 increase the productivity of fertilizer and improved seed by encouraging complementary farm level investments 3 improve the coordination of input and output marketing systems and improve incentives for private sector involvement 4 improve farmers ability to buy inputs using credit and non farm income 5 reduce the financial risks of purchased input use through integrated input output markets and innovative credit schemes and 6 evaluate the net economic benefits of selected agricultural support programs including input subsidies

the dynamic behavior of business loans and the prime rate abstract the purpose of this research is to determine the relevant variables channels of influence and dynamics characterizing the business loan market to achieve this goal the statistical approach of vector autoregressive time series analysis popularized by sims 1980 1981 and litterman 1979 is applied to a group of variables suggested by the portfolio and liability allocation problems of a representative bank and a representative business firm the variance and historical decomposition analyses suggest that innovations in the level of business inventories and commercial bank financial assets are the most important casual variables in the business loan market

unintended consequences of the market risk requirement in banking regulation abstract we analyze a bank that operates under the basel credit and market risk requirements and that maximizes its value through recapitalizations dividends and liquid asset investments according to our model the market risk requirement may postpone recapitalization and this way increase the bank s default probability we show that this is indeed the case if the expected return and volatility of the liquid asset portfolio are high i e then the market risk requirement raises the default probability of the bank in this sense the market risk requirement is inefficient

financial liberalization and banking crises in emerging economies abstract financial liberalization often leads to financial crises this link has usually been attributed to poorly designed banking systems an explanation that is largely static in this paper we develop a dynamic explanation by modelling the evolution of a newly liberalized bank s opportunities and incentives to take on risk over time the model reveals that even if a banking system is well designed in the sense of having good long run properties many countries will enjoy an initial period of rapid low risk growth and then enter a period with an elevated risk of banking crisis this transition emerges because of the way in which the degree of foreign competition the marginal product of capital and the bank s own net worth simultaneously evolve

precautionary saving in the small and in the large the theory of precautionary saving is shown to be isomorphic to the arrow pratt theory of risk aversion making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving and more generally to the theory of optimal choice under risk in particular a measure of the strength of the precautionary saving motive analogous to the arrow pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving and to give a new interpretation of the dreze modigliani substitution effect copyright 1990 by the econometric society