trading arrangements and industrial development how do different trading arrangements influence the industrialization process of developing countries can preferential trading arrangements ptas be superior to multilateral liberalization or at least an alternative when multilateral liberalization proceeds slowly if so what form should the ptas take are developing countries better advised to seek ptas with industrial countries or among themselves traditional analysis of these issues has been based on the idea of trade creation and trade diversion the problem with this analysis is that it starts from assuming a pattern of comparative advantage of newly industrialized countries the experience of these countries suggests the need for an analysis in which the pattern of comparative advantage is not set in stone but is potentially flexible and in which less developed countries can develop and converge in both income and economic structure to industrial economies the authors outline an alternative approach for analyzing the role of trade in promoting industrial development there are few fundamental differences between countries that generate immutable patterns of comparative advantage instead the pattern of trade and development in the world economy is determined mainly by history cumulative causation has created concentrations of industrial activity in particular locations industrial countries and left other areas more dependent on primary activities economic development can be thought of as the spread of these concentrations from country to country different trading arrangements may have a major impact on this development process by changing the attractiveness of countries as a base for manufacturing production they can potentially trigger or postpone industrial development this approach explains why firms are reluctant to move to economies that have lower wages and labor costs and shows how trade liberalization can change the incentives to become established in developing countries it provides a mechanism through which import liberalization can have a powerful effect in promoting industrialization and it suggests that import liberalization may create or amplify differences between liberalizing countries with the possible political tensions this may create while these features are consistent with the world economy they fall short of providing convincing empirical support for the approach using the approach the authors derive number of conclusions about the effects of trade liberalization first that unilaterally liberalizing imports of manufactures can promote development of the local manufacturing industry the mechanism is forward linkages from imported intermediates but this may be interpreted as part of a wider package of linkages coming from these imports second the gains from liberalization through pta membership are likely to exceed those obtained from unilateral action south south ptas will be sensitive to the market size of member states and north south ptas seem to offer better prospects for participating southern economies if not for north and excluded countries third the effects of particular schemes such as the division of benefits between southern economies will depend on the characteristics of the countries and cross country differences in these characteristics

optimal contracting and the organization of knowledge we study contractual arrangements that support an efficient use of time in a knowledge intensive economy in which agents endogenously specialize in either production or consulting the resulting market for advice is plagued by informational problems since both the difficulty of the questions posed to consultants and the knowledge of those consultants are hard to assess we show that spot contracting is not efficient because lemons in this case self employed producers with intermediate knowledge cannot be appropriately excluded from the market however an ex ante firm like contractual arrangement uniquely delivers the first best this arrangement involves hierarchies in which consultants are full residual claimants of output and compensate producers via incentive contracts this simple characterization of the optimal ex ante arrangement suggests a rationale for the organization of firms and the structure of compensation in knowledge intensive sectors our findings correspond empirically to observed arrangements inside professional service firms and between venture capitalists and entrepreneurs

foreign currency for long term investors conventional wisdom holds that conservative investors should avoid exposure to foreign currency risk even if they hold foreign equities they should hedge the currency exposure of these positions and hold only domestic treasury bills this paper argues that the conventional wisdom may be wrong for long term investors domestic bills are risky for long term investors because real interest rates vary over time and bills must be rolled over at uncertain future interest rates this risk can be hedged by holding foreign currency if the domestic currency tends to depreciate when the domestic real interest rate falls empirically this effect is important

international taxation and the direction and volume of cross border m as we show that the parent subsidiary structure of multinational firms created by cross border mergers and acquisitions is affected by the prospect of international double taxation specifically the likelihood of parent firm location in a country following a cross border takeover is reduced by high international double taxation of foreign source income at the same time countries with high international double taxation attract smaller numbers of parent firms a unilateral elimination of worldwide taxation by the united states is simulated to increase the proportion of parent firms locating in the united states following cross border mergers and acquisitions from 53 to 58

the relationship between international trade and capital flow a network perspective abstract the relationship between international trade and capital flow has been extensively discussed using bilateral data from 2001 to 2016 we construct international trade and capital flow networks defined as a weighted graph in which nodes are countries and edges represent trade and capital flow linkages centrality is employed as the main variable in this study to represent the importance of a country in the networks to gain further insight into the network characteristics we adopt a turning parameter centrality to combine both the original degree and strength measurements within the weighted network moreover we develop a new indicator called partner quality centrality to identify the quality of neighbors within the panel cointegration framework we argue that a positive long run equilibrium exists between the trade and capital flow networks as constructed in addition we employ a panel causality test to investigate the short run dynamics indicating that the international capital flow network has predictive power on the trade network from the short run perspective but not vice versa

individual heterogeneity and censoring in panel data estimates of tobacco expenditure a panel of households is used to test the rational addiction model of becker et al 1994 these data raise problems of measurement errors censoring and unobservable heterogeneity we use sample separation information to exclude those households who never purchase tobacco to deal with the remaining zeros we compare specifications based on infrequency of purchase and on censoring gmm and system gmm are used to deal with errors in variables and unobservable heterogeneity within groups two step within groups three step gmm and minimum distance methods are used to allow for censoring there is evidence that the rational addiction specification is sensitive to unobservable heterogeneity and censoring copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

fdi as an outcome of the market for corporate control theory and evidence abstract much foreign direct investment fdi takes the form of mergers and acquisitions m a it is commonplace in finance to view acquisitions as manifestations of the market for corporate control following on that insight we propose a model of fdi in which headquarters bid to control overseas assets we derive an equation for bilateral fdi stocks that resembles the recently developed fixed effects approach to modelling bilateral trade flows we estimate the model and use its parameters to construct benchmarks for evaluating multilateral inward and outward fdi

longitude matters time zones and the location of foreign direct investment abstract using bilateral foreign direct investment fdi data we find that differences in time zones have a negative and significant effect on the location of fdi we show that this finding is robust across different specifications estimation methods and proxies for time zone differences time zones also have a negative effect on trade but this effect is smaller than that on fdi finally the impact of the time zone effect has increased over time suggesting that it is not likely to vanish with the introduction of new information technologies

why don t people trust experts abstractcredence goods such as health care legal and financial services and auto repair create a conflict of interest by requiring experts to diagnose and provide services to uninformed consumers mistreatment of consumers appears widespread empirically but a simple explanation for mistreatment under realistic assumptions has proved elusive i generalize uwe dulleck and rudolf kerschbamer s credence good model to incorporate the highly realistic assumption that consumers do not observe experts cost functions the model guarantees equilibrium mistreatment in a wide range of price setting and market environments the model also yields testable implications regarding the nature of mistreating firms and the direction of mistreatment

the potential for using excise taxes to reduce smoking we examine the potential for reducing cigarette smoking through increases in cigarette excise taxes by estimating the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes using information on individual smoking behavior from the 1976 health interview survey we estimate the adult price elasticity of demand for cigarettes to be 0 42 we find that price has its greatest effect on the smoking behavior of young males and that it operates primarily on the decision to smoke rather than via adjustments in the quantity of cigarettes smoked an excise tax increase would discourage smoking by successive cohorts of young adults and those reduced smoking levels would be reflected in aggregate smoking as these cohorts mature

the euro and its impact on the number size performance and regional spread of european mergers and acquisitions mccarthy k j and dolfsma w the euro and its impact on the number size performance and regional spread of european mergers and acquisitions regional studies the macroeconomic effects of the euro have been extensively studied the literature has however paid significantly less attention to the microeconomic consequences and few authors have considered if and how the euro has impacted firm level decision making this paper explores if how and in what way the euro has impacted one firm level decision whether to merge with or acquire another firm this paper builds a sample of 19 362 acquisitions announced in the period 1990 2014 it shows that the euro has dramatically increased the number size and performance of european mergers and acquisitions importantly it also notes that the euro has altered the geographic spread of european acquisitions the paper reports that since the introduction of the euro acquirers have made increasingly distant acquisitions and have preferred targets in periphera

the economics of credence goods an experiment on the role of liability verifiability reputation and competition credence goods markets are characterized by asymmetric information between sellers and consumers that may give rise to inefficiencies such as under and overtreatment or market breakdown we study in a large experiment with 936 participants the determinants for efficiency in credence goods markets while theory predicts that liability or verifiability yield efficiency we find that liability has a crucial but verifiability at best a minor allowing sellers to build up reputation has little influence as predicted seller competition drives down prices and yields maximal trade but does not lead to higher efficiency as long as liability is violated jel d12 d82

intra national versus international trade in the european union why do national borders matter the first objective of this paper is to estimate border effects among european union countries in this context the specification of the gravity equation together with the choice of the distance measure are shown to be crucial for assessing the size of the border effect the second objective is to evaluate the determinants of the cross commodity variation in national border effects contrary to previous findings reported in the literature we show that trade barriers do provide an explanation in particular technical barriers to trade together with product specific information costs increase border effects whereas non tariff barriers are not significant our results further suggest that these barriers are not the only cause since the spatial clustering of firms is also found to matter

the effectiveness of anti smoking legislation a review abstract this survey focuses on government efforts to curb the use of undesirable goods notably tobacco products we synthesize the economics literature and examine the effectiveness of government curbs on tobacco consumption through non price controls such as bans on cigarette advertising health warnings and workplace smoking bans and price measures or higher prices through higher taxes this literature review is unique in that we do not merely aim to provide a summary of the literature rather our main focus is to draw conclusions from the literature regarding the effectiveness of alternate policy measures across countries in checking smoking and to provide directions suggestions for extending the scope of government intervention to other tobacco products

the effect of cigarette excise taxes on smoking before during and after pregnancy recent analyses suggest that cigarette excise taxes lower prenatal smoking it is unclear however whether the association between taxes and prenatal smoking represents a decline among women of reproductive age or a particular response by pregnant women we address this question directly with an analysis of quit and relapse behavior during and after pregnancy we find that the price elasticity of prenatal quitting and postpartum relapse is close to one in absolute value we conclude that direct financial incentives to stop smoking during and after pregnancy should be considered

in search of substitution between foreign production and exports abstract are foreign production and exports substitutes or complements standard theory of the multinational corporation mnc assumes substitution while previous empirical work examining the relationship has generally found strong evidence of complementarity this study examines product level data which more closely fits the assumption of a single product firm often used in mnc theory and finds substantial evidence for both a substitution and a complementarity effect between affiliate production and exports with japanese automobile parts for the us market i also test for and find evidence of substitution using product level data on a set of japanese produced final consumer goods

smoking cessation a model of planned vs actual behavior for time inconsistent consumers we offer a simple model of intertemporal choice to characterize how planned versus actual behaviors evolve for time inconsistent smokers our results suggest that smokers participation and cessation decisions are governed by the interplay between three effects the cessation effect leads smokers to advance their plans to quit smoking whereas the procrastination effect leads them to consecutively revise their planned quitting age upwards consequently the duration of smoking is effectively governed by which one of these two effects is dominant finally for certain consumer segments a threshold effect causes an all or nothing type of extreme smoking behavior based on certain critical values of present biased preferences our results provide some preliminary evidence that both marketing efforts by tobacco firms and public policy initiatives can have a significant influence on smoking behavior in particular we find that reductions in the age at which individuals start smoking may not only vastly extend their duration of smoking but also convert potential never smokers into lifetime smokers finally we estimate a hazard model using survey data from over 800 smokers to provide evidence in support of our theoretical model

the rise of europe atlantic trade institutional change and economic growth the rise of western europe after 1500 is due largely to growth in countries with access to the atlantic ocean and with substantial trade with the new world africa and asia via the atlantic this trade and the associatedcolonialism affected europe not only directly but also indirectly by inducing institutional change where initial political institutions those established before 1500 placed significant checks on the monarchy the growth of atlantic trade strengthened merchant groups by constraining the power of the monarchy and helped merchants obtain changes in institutions to protect property rights these changes were central to subsequent economic growth

second opinions and price competition inefficiency in the market for expert advice we consider a market in which an expert must exert costly but unobservable effort to identify the service that meets the consumer s need in our model experts offer competing contracts and the consumer may gather multiple opinions we explore the incentives that a competitive sampling of prices and opinions provides for experts to exert effort and find that there is a tension between price competition and the equilibrium effort in particular the equilibrium fails to realize the second best welfare optimum an intervention that limits price competition via price control increases welfare

on the hidden links between financial and trade opening abstract developing countries characterized by high costs of tax collection and enforcement opt to use financial repression as an implicit tax on savings providing the impetus for capital flight a mechanism facilitating illicit capital movements is trade misinvoicing where the effectiveness of capital controls would increase with the resources spent on monitoring and enforcement per one dollar of international trade under these circumstances greater trade openness increases the effective cost of enforcing financial repression thereby reducing the usefulness of financial repression as an implicit tax this in turn implies that financial reforms tend to be the by product of greater trade integration

procurement via sequential search numerous design and repair services are nonstandard and have to be tailored to the needs of the individual buyers prospective sellers have to make preliminary efforts in order to come up with a plan and buyers often consult a number of sellers before making a purchase the literature on procurement studies such situations for the case of a large buyer who can commit to a procurement mechanism the present paper considers the case of a small buyer who cannot commit to a mechanism it develops a simple sequential procurement model and investigates its equilibria and welfare optima the main qualitative conclusion concerns the inherent inefficiency of the equilibria the price competition results in too low consultation fees which induce overly intense search by buyers which in turn erodes sellers effort incentives

the value of delegated quality control this paper studies the case in which a firm delegates quality control to an independent monitor in a repeated game consumers trust provides incentives to acquire information about whether the good is defective and withhold defective goods from sale if third party reports are observable to consumers delegation lessens the first and dispenses with the second moral hazard concern but also creates agency costs internal quality control is optimal only if trades are sufficiently frequent and consumer information is sufficiently precise this result holds in the presence of the possibility of collusion fully non verifiable presale information and economies of scale in external quality control

the determinants of cross border equity flows abstract we explore a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross border equity flows between 14 countries 1989 1996 we show that a gravity model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions gross transaction flows depend on market size in source and destination country as well as trading costs in which both information and the transaction technology play a role distance proxies some information costs and other variables explicitly represent information transmission an information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors and the efficiency of transactions the geography of information is the main determinant of the pattern of international transactions while there is weak support in our data for the diversification motive once we control for the informational friction we broaden the scope of our results by presenting some evidence linking the results on equity transactions to equity holdings

on doctors mechanics and computer specialists the economics of credence goods most of us need the services of an expert when our apartment s heating or our washing machine breaks down or when our car starts to make strange noises and for most of us commissioning an expert to solve the problem causes concern this concern does not disappear even after repair and payment of the bill on the contrary one worries about paying for a service that was not provided or receiving some unnecessary treatment this article studies the economics underlying these worries under which conditions do experts have an incentive to exploit the informational problems associated with markets for diagnosis and treatment what types of fraud exist what are the methods and institutions for dealing with these informational problems under which conditions does the market provide incentives to deter fraudulent behavior and what happens if all or some of those conditions are violated

one money one market the effect of common currencies on trade currency unions their dramatic effect on international trade a gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade the panel data bilateral observations for five years during 1970 90 covering 186 countries includes 300 observations in which both countries use the same currency i find a large positive effect of a currency union on international trade and a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility even after controlling for a host of features including the endogenous nature of the exchange rate regime these effects statistically significant imply that two countries sharing the same currency trade three times as much as they would with different currencies currency unions like the european emu may thus lead to a large increase in international trade with all that that entails andrew rose

the economics of breakdowns checkups and cures a market in which the owner of a durable good x contracts with an expert for diagnostic and treatment services is studied good x may be in one of three states health disease or failure only experts can determine whether x is healthy or diseased and perform treatment the owner cannot tell whether recommended treatment is really needed this creates an information based demand for health insurance by risk neutral consumers imperfections in the market for spot insurance may give rise to free diagnostic checks strategic procrastination and long term health maintenance agreements

a theory of rational addiction we develop a theory of rational addiction in which rationality means a consistent plan to maximize utility over time strong addiction to a good requires a big effect of past consumption of the good on current consumption such powerful complementarities cause some steady states to be unstable they are an important part of our analysis because even small deviations from the consumption at an unstable steady state can lead to large cumulative rises over time in addictive consumption or to rapid falls in consumption to abstention our theory also implies that cold turkey is used to end strong addictions that addicts often go on binges that addicts respond more to permanent than to temporary changes in prices of addictive goods and that anxiety and tensions can precipitate an addiction

honesty in a model of strategic information transmission we consider the following simple model of consumer fraud consumers need one of two possible repairs an expensive repair denoted e or an inexpensive repair denoted i the exogenous probability that a consumer needs the more costly remedy is r each consumer is assumed to know r an expert can observe with certainty which of the two repairs is needed and can offer to sell either to the consumer in a simple extension we allow for uncertainty with respect to the expert s observation we assume that selling the expensive remedy to a consumer who needs only the inexpensive one is more profitable than selling the inexpensive one thus h eii h1 iji where h denotes profit and i denotes conditional on needing the profit functions are increasing in the price of the respective repairs for convenience we suppress the dependence of h on prices in our notation we also assume that a consumer prefers to obtain the appropriate repair to the inappropriate one thus u eie u ije and u iii u eii where u is the consumer s payoff lastly we assume that the functions u eje and u e i are decreasing in the price of the expensive repair and that u iie and u iii are decreasing in the price of the inexpensive repair we also assume that u iie is decreasing in the price of the expensive repair since the consumer ultimately buys the expensive repair in this case see below for further assumptions regarding the repairs we are interested in the equilibrium levels of honesty in this model how honest is the expert at the equilibrium do consumers always follow the expert s advice does the level of honesty increase as the interests of the agents become more similar in a sense to be defined below our assumptions are similar to those in the abstract strategic information transmission models of vincent crawford and joel sobel 1982 and jerry green and nancy stokey 1980 we follow the former paper which asks whether the signals sent become less noisy as the agents preferences become more similar despite the similarity of our model to crawford sobel s we arrive at some different conclusions with respect to the expert s honesty vis a vis the agents closeness of interests we explain this in detail in section iii in addition we allow that the expert may be uncertain about the true state of the world we also explicitly model the level of expert honesty which extends crawford sobel the outline of the paper is as follows in section i we provide the details of the model and show that a unique equilibrium exists comparative static results and a simple extension incorporating the assumption of the incompetent expert are given in section ii we draw comparisons with crawfordsobel in section iii in section iv we conclude with a brief summary

consumer information in a market for expert services abstract we present a model of credence goods in which the consumers are heterogenous in terms of the valuation they place for getting a serious problem fixed we introduce consumer information into this framework by assuming that prior to visiting an expert some consumers receive an information signal about whether they have a serious or a minor problem we show that when the fraction of consumers with low willingness to pay is sufficiently high the expert does not cheat any low valuation consumer regardless of their information status but cheats the high valuation consumers those high valuation consumers with bad signals are the most frequent victims of cheating whereas those with good signals are the least likely victims when the fraction of consumers with low willingness to pay is below a certain threshold however the unique equilibrium involves no cheating

credence goods costly diagnosis and subjective evaluation we study contracting between a consumer and an expert the expert can invest in diagnosis to obtain a noisy signal about whether a low cost service is sufficient or whether a high cost treatment is required to solve the consumer s problem this involves moral hazard because diagnosis effort and signals are not observable treatments are contractible but success or failure of the low cost treatment is observed only by the consumer payments can therefore not depend on the objective outcome but only the consumer s report or subjective evaluation a failure of the low cost treatment delays the solution of the consumer s problem by the high cost treatment to a second period we show that the first best solution can always be implemented if the parties discount rate is zero an increase in the discount rate reduces the range of parameter combinations for which the first best can be obtained in an extension we show that the first best is also always implementable if diagnosis and treatment can be separated by contracting with two different agents

tobacco taxes and starting and quitting smoking does the effect differ by education this article uses duration analysis to investigate the role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking applying a variety of parametric duration models to a sample of irish women it finds that in general tobacco taxes do influence starting and quitting smoking in the expected direction it also finds that the effect for starting differs by education but in a nonmonotonic way with the greatest effect for women with intermediate levels of education the results for quitting suggest the greatest effect for women with the lowest level of education these results are unchanged when account is taken of unobserved heterogeneity

when do experts cheat and whom do they target a credence good is a product or service whose usefulness or necessity is better known to the seller than to the buyer this information asymmetry often persists even after the credence good is consumed i propose two new theories of expert cheating suggesting that identifiable heterogeneities among customers can cause expert sellers to defraud their customers according to these theories cheating arises as a substitute for price discrimination and experts cheat selectively for instance experts target high valuation and high cost customers finally selective cheating may damage the communication of useful information from customers to experts and result in inferior services

native american obesity an economic model of the thrifty gene theory native american obesity is hypothesized to result from three potential causes 1 a genetic predisposition or the thrifty gene 2 a rational addiction to nutrients and 3 dietary adjustment costs these hypotheses are tested using a two stage household production approach and scanner data from a panel of native and non native supermarkets nutrient intake for both groups is strongly influenced by adjustment costs native americans tend to place higher implicit valuations on protein relative to fats and carbohydrates compared to non natives consequently reductions in real carbohydrate prices over time may be a cause of high incidence of native american obesity

economic integration and the profitability of cross border mergers and acquisitions abstract the 1990s was a decade of increased economic integration the decade also witnessed a sharp increase in cross border mergers and acquisitions from a theoretical perspective the increase in international mergers in more integrated economies is rather puzzling it is a well established result that due to the business stealing effect mergers in integrated markets are not likely to be profitable a reasonable conjecture would therefore be that closer integration of markets would reduce the attractiveness of cross border mergers and acquisitions the present paper demonstrates that this is not necessarily the case economic integration may trigger cross border acquisitions by reducing the business stealing effect and by reducing the reservation price of the target firm the paper thus provides explanations to the observed increase in cross border mergers in a world of more integrated economies

the effect of national culture on the choice of entry mode characteristics of national cultures have frequently been claimed to influence the selection of entry modes this article investigates this claim by developing a theoretical argument for why culture should influence the choice of entry two hypotheses are derived which relate culture to entry mode choice one focusing on the cultural distance between countries the other on attitudes towards uncertainty avoidance using a multinomial logit model and controlling for other effects the hypotheses are tested by analysing data on 228 entries into the united states market by acquisition wholly owned greenfield and joint venture empirical support for the effect of national culture on entry choice is found

information transmission in regulated markets the seminal papers of vincent p crawford and joel sobel 1982 and jerry green and nancy stokey 1980 study models in which a signal about the state of the world is transmitted from a perfectly informed sender to an uninformed receiver the authors study a model in which multiple signalers compete for consumers the authors ask how much information is revealed how consumers shopping around affects this information and how each is affected by incentives an implication of the model is that in a price regulated market for health care patients should not be prohibited from gathering more than one opinion

same as it ever was europe s national borders and the market for corporate control abstract national borders continue to be strong barriers for mergers and acquisitions in europe using regional data we construct a gravity model and find that the restraining impact of national borders decreased by more than 17 percent between 1991 and 2007 however no significant change has occurred since the mid 1990s i e four years before the introduction of the euro in comparison we run a corresponding analysis in the united states using the 10 federal regions as country equivalents the resulting quasi border effect in the united states is weaker than that in the european union yet its decline by 43 percent is much stronger in the same period we conclude that european integration policy has had little effect on fostering m a cross border transactions

exchange rate regimes and international trade evidence from the classical gold standard era in this paper we show that the spread of the classical gold standard in the late nineteenth century increased international trade flows this positive effect was compounded whenever a group of countries formed a monetary union applying the gravity model of trade to more than 1 100 country pairs during the 1870 1910 period we find that two countries on gold would trade 60 percent more with each other than with countries on a different monetary standard moreover a monetary union would more than double bilateral trade flows our findings are relevant for current discussions on alternative monetary arrangements for the twenty first century

self command in practice in policy and in a theory of rational choice an increasingly familiar occurrence for obstetricians is being asked by patients to withhold anesthesia during delivery the physician often proposes that a facemask be put beside the patient who may inhale nitrous oxide as she needs it but some determined patients ask that no such opportunity be provided if gas is available they will use it and they want not to be able to the request is interesting for decision theory and raises questions of ethics policy and physician responsibility even if the woman is merely making a mistake if she simply does not know how painful labor will be and how glad she will be even in retrospect if the pain is relieved but some women who make this request have had earlier deliveries during which they demanded anesthesia and received it they are acquainted with the pain they anticipate asking for relief and they want it withheld when they do they expect to regret afterwards any recourse to anesthesia this particular instance of attempted selfdenial has features that are special but many that are common the woman is so far as we know in good health physically and mentally she anticipates a transient period when her usual values and preferences will be suspended or inaccessible she has reasons for wanting to frustrate her own wishes at the critical time she needs cooperation she may ratify her choice afterward by expressing herself grateful that no anesthesia was offered even when requested there are ethical dilemmas and legal issues and there is conflict if say the husband disagrees with the physician in the delivery room about what his wife really wants

what lures cross border venture capital inflows the change in the business model of venture capitalists from investing locally towards investing across borders started to intensify in the late 1990s according to a dataset of european and north american countries we find that countries with higher expected growth and higher lagged stock market returns receive larger net cross border venture capital inflows thus portfolio companies located in high growth and high return countries receive more venture capital from foreign venture capitalists than these countries venture capitalists invest in foreign portfolio companies also countries with lower stock market capitalizations as well as those with poor tax and legal environments for venture capital intermediation exhibit larger net cross border inflows these findings offer important insights for policy makers since cross border venture capital inflows partly compensate for potential limits in the domestic venture capital supply

smoking initiation and the iron law of demand we show with three longitudinal datasets that cigarette taxes and prices affect smoking initiation decisions evidence from longitudinal studies is mixed but generally find that initiation does not vary with price or tax we show that the lack of statistical significance partly results because of limited policy variation in the time periods studied truncated behavioral windows or mis assignment of price and tax rates in retrospective data which occurs when one has no information about respondents prior state or region of residence our findings highlight issues relevant to initiation behavior generally particularly those for which individuals responses to policy changes may be noisy or small in magnitude

a nearly global look at the dynamics of youth smoking initiation and cessation the role of cigarette prices this study investigates the role of cigarette prices on smoking initiation and cessation among youth in a sample of eight primarily non western low middle and high income countries with a particular focus on a subsample of 40 low and middle income countries lmics using split population duration models on longitudinally transformed individual data from the global youth tobacco survey gyts the average impact of cigarette prices in the presence of unobserved country heterogeneity and shifting cultural norms within countries is identified by the variation of cigarette prices within countries over time price increases are found to effectively reduce initiation in early youth and girls are considerably more responsive than boys the price elasticity of initiation in lmics is 0 82 for the combined gender analysis 0 46 for boys only and 1 5 for girls only there is some indication that youths in developing countries may be slightly less responsive to price changes than in high income countries no

factor movements and commodity trade as complements abstract several models are presented in which factor mobility leads to an increase in the volume of world trade the models share the common characteristic that the basis for trade is something other than differences in relative factor endowments these alternative bases for trade include returns to scale imperfect competition production and factor taxes and differences in production technology taken together the models suggest a more general idea the widely held notion that trade in goods and factors are substitutes is in fact a rather special result which is a general characteristic only of factor proportions models

life cycle consumption of a harmful and addictive good david goldbaum this article demonstrates that the endogenous desire to quit smoking can result from a rational consumption path chosen at the time the consumer begins smoking this result is obtained without relying on hidden costs or unknown preferences a finite lived agent chooses a path of consumption of a harmful and addictive good to maximize present discounted utility the consumer chooses his consumption rate to account for the future health consequence of smoking and the withdrawal costs of quitting a consumer may choose to smoke even if it means a lowered utility level for the majority of the time spent smoking jel d91 c61 i12 i introduction some of what we consume for pleasure can be harmful economists assume that consumers take measure of the potential harm and balance it against the pleasure derived from consumption when both the pleasure and the harm occur at the time of consumption the decision is straightforward some goods though impose a cost borne at some future date requiring intertemporal planning these present a greater challenge to the consumer and to the economist trying to explain the consumer s behavior at times observed behavior implores us to question whether the consumer is properly weighing the costs and benefits in a manner that maximizes his or her utility theoretically for each item under consideration the rational consumer properly balances the lifetime benefits derived from the consumption against the lifetime costs some observed behavior seems to contradict this rational approach to consumption in particular it is common for people to begin smoking cigarettes during their youth only to endogenously make a decision to quit at a future date to integrate this behavior with rationality modelers have proposed hidden costs multiple selves changing preferences or other strategies that limit the decision making ability of the youth in all of these cases for some consumers the decision to smoke is a mistake made during youth that has to be reversed at some cost as a middle aged adult this article aims to demonstrate that a lifetime path of consumption in which a person consumes a harmful and addictive good while young and quits at some later date is a path that is perfectly consistent with rational behavior it is not necessary to assume that mid life quitters are displaying irrational or time inconsistent behavior if all information regarding a good s harmful properties is revealed some consumers will still choose a path that requires quitting mid life this paper primarily examines the consumption of cigarettes but also includes analysis of a nonaddictive unhealthy good both of these harmful goods provide the consumer with immediate pleasure but at the cost of decreasing life expectancy background becker and murphy 1988 bm introduced the concept of rational addiction the idea that addicts are forward looking rational consumers present consumption choices reflect not only current utility considerations and budget constraints but also incorporate the anticipated impact of present consumption on future utility and budget constraints bm examine the behavior response of addicts to exogenous shocks changes from a steady state including the desire to quit originate only from exogenous shocks such as a change in the relative price of the good or a revelation about the detrimental health consequences of the addictive good that alters the consumer s utility derived from consumption the model offers no mechanism by which smokers may choose to alter behavior endogenously in contrast to bm s smokers many of today s smokers appear to quit in absence of an external shock anyone who began smoking after 1966 has been subjected to the legislated health warnings appearing on cigarette packages since that time 1 antismoking messages in radio and television advertisements during the 1950s and 1960s also helped to make the health consequences of smoking common knowledge

experts vs discounters consumer free riding and experts withholding advice in markets for credence goods this paper studies the incentives for credence goods experts to invest effort in diagnosis if effort is both costly and unobservable and if they face competition by discounters who are not able to perform a diagnosis the unobservability of diagnosis effort and the credence characteristic of the good induce experts to choose incentive compatible tariff structures this makes them vulnerable to competition by discounters we explore the conditions under which honestly diagnosing experts survive competition by discounters we identify situations in which experts misdiagnose consumers in order to prevent them from free riding on experts advice and we discuss policy options to solve the free riding consumers cheating experts problem

the effects of excise taxes and regulations on cigarette smoking abstract we estimate a generalized linear model to examine adult and teenage cigarette demand our analysis focuses on the extent to which exice taxes and regulations restricting smoking in public places affect cigarette consumption the adult results indicate that the price elasticity of demand is unstable over time ranging from 0 06 in 1970 to 0 23 in 1985 these estimates are lower than most found in previous studies the teenage price elasticity does not differ statistically from the estimates for adults additionally regulations restricting smoking in public places have a significant effect on both adult and teenage cigarette demand

cutting through the smoke separating the effect of price on smoking initiation relapse and cessation i employ a large national representative dataset current population survey tobacco use supplements to investigate how cigarette prices affect smoking decisions a standard econometric approach is to estimate the relationship between cigarette prices and smoking participation at a point in time i extend this approach to model past year decisions to start resume or quit smoking considering reverse causality i apply an instrumental variable excise taxes for cigarette prices i include an index of state level anti smoking sentiment to control for omitted variable bias after estimating separate models for smoking initiation relapse and cessation and for different age groups i find no evidence that increasing taxes on cigarettes can prevent the onset of youth smoking neither does it effectively induce young smokers to quit however cigarette prices do play an important role to prevent relapse and encourage quitting at older ages

information and capital flows the determinants of transactions in financial assets abstract we show that a gravity model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions our results support the hypothesis that informational asymmetries are responsible for the strong negative relationship between asset trade and distance this result is very important for theories of asset trade portfolio adjustments and home bias we strengthen it by investigating the roles of explicit informational variables as well as distance in explaining separately cross border trade in corporate equities corporate bonds and government bonds

collateral damage trade disruption and the economic impact of war abstract conventional wisdom in economic history suggests that conflict between countries can be enormously disruptive of economic activity especially international trade we study the effects of war on bilateral trade with available data extending back to 1870 using the gravity model we estimate the contemporaneous and lagged effects of wars on the trade of belligerent nations and neutrals controlling for other determinants of trade as well as the possible effects of reverse causality we find large and persistent impacts of wars on trade national income and global economic welfare we also conduct a general equilibrium comparative statics exercise that indicates costs associated with lost trade might be at least as large as the conventionally measured direct costs of war such as lost human capital as illustrated by case studies of world wars i and ii

optimal search auctions abstract we study the design of profit maximizing single unit auctions under the assumption that the seller needs to incur costs to contact prospective bidders and inform them about the auction with independent bidders types and possibly interdependent valuations the seller s problem can be reduced to a search problem in which the surplus is measured in terms of virtual utilities minus search costs compared to the socially efficient mechanism the optimal mechanism features fewer participants longer search conditional on the same set of participants and inefficient sequence of entry

european market integration through technology driven m as merger and acquisitions m as have been an important tool for reorganizing the european market since the establishment of european economic and monetary union this article suggests that european integration helped and encouraged european firms to source technology across national borders in europe establishing european innovative firms the figures confirm that once barriers impeding the free movement of capital goods and labour had fallen european firms used m as intensively to enter foreign european markets enhancing technology competencies is found to be one of the main motives for cross border acquisitions in the 1990s but is not a factor in domestic acquisitions over the same period

an assessment of causal inference in smoking initiation research and a framework for future research i introduction the causal factors underlying youth smoking initiation are central to the challenge of developing effective smoking prevention programs and the shaping of many other types of smoking related policies these causal factors specifically the ones that potentially may be influenced by the conduct of cigarette manufacturers also have been a central issue in much of the recent smoking related litigation these high profile legal cases have focused on the claim that tobacco company conduct significantly influenced youth smoking initiation rates in particular cigarette advertising and tobacco company public reluctance to acknowledge the health risks of smoking have been purported to be key factors influencing youth smoking decisions 1 in this paper we examine the basic principles of empirical scientific investigation that have been adopted to establish causal relationships and apply these principles to evaluate the evidence underlying the link between cigarette advertising and youth smoking initiation the causal link between tobacco company marketing and youth smoking generally has been accepted as empirically established outside the economics literature despite the fact that the underlying evidence fails to meet commonly applied econometric standards we review some of these papers in the public health literature that have been cited as evidence supporting the causal link between cigarette advertising and youth smoking and explain why these papers fail to support this causal link further we also review the economics literature that provides evidence for a multicausal model for youth risky behaviors including smoking we identify studies in which researchers have found that many characteristics affecting choices to participate in risky behaviors are formed at very early ages empirical demonstration of causation is fundamental to guiding effective development of interventions in many areas of social life scientific principles are especially important for developing smoking related policies as enormous resources currently are being devoted to develop programs that attempt to reduce youth smoking propensities however many of these policies and suggested policies focus on causal factors that have not been scientifically established but rather merely assumed to affect smoking initiation more effective policies potentially could be developed by distinguishing causal factors through more reliable empirical methodologies without identifying factors that lead to smoking initiation through sound estimation techniques current prevention efforts may turn out to have little or muted benefits 2 ii causal factors of smoking initiation and the scientific model an important goal of policy analysis is to identify and measure causal relationships as many confounding correlations exist which do not reflect structural relations underlying actual outcomes understanding these underlying structural relations allows empirical versions of estimated models to more accurately forecast the effects of interventions as is well recognized in the econometrics literature precise identification and measurement of causal effects is a difficult task in the area of human choice since input parameters of investigated relationships may reflect unobserved individual characteristics and choices thus correlations between endogenous input parameters and observed outcomes may simply represent individual sorting on latent characteristics rather than structural relations between input and output variables many times in other disciplines biases associated with endogeneity do not hinder estimation of structural models because observed variables are not affected by individual choice for example to evaluate the effect of a particular drug on a particular disease researchers may be able to perfectly control factors such as the presence of other diseases dosage regimens alternative drug usage and diet

the geography of trade in goods and asset holdings gravity models have been widely used to describe bilateral trade in goods portes and rey portes r rey h 2005 the determinants of cross border equity flows journal of international economics 65 2 269 296 applied this framework to cross border equity flows and found that distance which proxies information asymmetries is a surprisingly very large barrier to cross border asset trade we adopt a different point of view and explore the complementarity between bilateral trade in goods and bilateral asset holdings in a simultaneous gravity equations framework providing different instruments for both endogenous variables we show that a 10 increase in bilateral trade raises bilateral asset holdings by 6 to 7 the reverse causality is also significant albeit smaller controlling for trade the impact of distance on asset holdings is drastically reduced keywords gravity models international finance international trade simultaneous equations

a new world order explaining the international diffusion of the gold standard 1870 1913 abstract the gold standard gradually became an international monetary regime after 1870 similarly some nations in the european union are waiting to adopt the euro while others have joined immediately what explains the timing of exchange rate regime adoption to find out the international diffusion of the gold standard is analyzed duration analysis shows that network externalities operating through trade channels the desire to decrease borrowing costs on international capital markets and the level of development matter some evidence shows that the level of exchange rate volatility or inflationist agricultural interests did not matter for the timing of adoption

conflicts of interest information provision and competition in the financial services industry abstract in some markets sellers have better information than buyers over which products best serve a buyer s needs depending on the market structure this may lead to conflicts of interest in the provision of information by sellers this paper studies this issue in the market for financial services the analysis presents a new model of competition between banks where price competition influences the ensuing incentives for truthful information revelation we also compare conflicts of interest in two different firm structures specialized banking and one stop banking

the duration of the smoking habit i introduction most smokers smoke out of habit once the habit is ended many of smoking s most harmful effects decline rather quickly preventing and ending cigarette addiction is therefore the straightest path toward preventing the health damage done by cigarette smoking consequently the related questions of why people start smoking and why they quit are central to formulating and evaluating effective antismoking policies duration or hazard models are designed to measure the probability of transition between states and are thus ideal for investigating the structural determinants of the transition between addiction and non addiction nevertheless most previous work in the economics literature uses the aggregate smoking participation rate defined as the percentage of people who currently smoke or an individual s probability of participation rather than a hazard rate to measure the attractiveness of habitual smoking this paper models the hazard rates of both starting and quitting the cigarette smoking habit the starting hazard rate is the probability that an individual will start smoking in a given time period conditional on being a nonsmoker until then the quitting hazard rate is the probability of quitting smoking in a given time period conditional on being a smoker since the starting date both of these rates should rise and fall in response to changes in the attractiveness of smoking the two rates will respond differently to different stimuli since the starting hazard reflects the point of view of nonsmokers and the quitting hazard reflects the point of view of smokers hazard or duration models possess several advantages over smoking participation models most obviously smoking participation rates cannot directly distinguish between increased starting rates and decreased quitting rates but the hazard models can also in a participation rate model it is difficult to control for the effect of the duration of the habit whereas duration models are designed specifically to allow for and measure the dependence of the hazard rate on duration another advantage is that the participation rate at any one time will oversample the number of long term smokers relative to those who had a short term habit whereas a duration model is designed to avoid this source of bias one drawback however is that because of their inherent panel nature the data requirements of duration models are somewhat more difficult to satisfy as shall be seen the only previous work in the economics literature that estimates the hazard rate of starting smoking is douglas and hariharan 1994 my paper improves upon douglas and hariharan in at least three important ways first it estimates the hazard rate of quitting smoking as well as that of starting second it takes into account variation in state level regulation third its time varying covariate model allows hazard rates to respond dynamically to changes in cigarette price regulation and information variables the use of time varying covariates is important because it brings the empirical model into much closer accord with theory the decision whether or not to start or quit smoking is an ongoing decision made one day at a time on the basis of current information the hazard of starting is greatest when the cost of the habit appears lowest and its benefit appears highest this comparison of cost and benefit changes through time as price information income and life cycle variables change while douglas and hariharan 1994 used price information from the potential smoker s most vulnerable age on the theory that its marginal effect is greatest at that time the model used in this paper allows each individual s hazard rate to respond to changes in price and public information as they occur the leading theoretical model of the decision to smoke is the rational addiction model of becker and murphy 1988 which assumes that consumers of addictive goods begin smoking only after fully weighing the costs and benefits of the habit

cross border mergers and acquisitions and the role of trade costs abstract cross border mergers and acquisitions m as have increased dramatically over the last two decades this paper analyses the role of trade costs in explaining the increase in the number of cross border m as in particular we distinguish horizontal and non horizontal m as and investigate whether trade costs affect these two types of mergers differently we analyse this question using industry data for 23 oecd countries for the period 1990 2001 our findings suggest that while in the aggregate trade costs affect cross border merger activity negatively its impact differs importantly across horizontal and non horizontal mergers the impact of trade costs is less negative for horizontal mergers which is consistent with the tariff jumping argument

fdi in space spatial autoregressive relationships in foreign direct investment abstract there are a number of theoretical reasons why foreign direct investment fdi into a host country may depend on the fdi in proximate countries such spatial interdependence has been largely ignored by the empirical fdi literature with only a couple recent papers accounting for such issues in their estimation this paper conducts a general examination of spatial interactions in empirical fdi models using data on us outbound fdi activity we find that estimated relationships of traditional determinants of fdi are surprisingly robust to inclusion of terms to capture spatial interdependence even though such interdependence is estimated to be significant however we find that both the traditional determinants of fdi and the estimated spatial interdependence are quite sensitive to the sample of countries one examines

credence goods monopolists abstract with a credence good consumers never discover how much of the good they actually need therefore the seller acts as the expert determining the customers requirements this information asymmetry creates strong incentives for the seller to cheat on services we analyze whether the market mechanism may induce non fraudulent seller behavior we consider four scenarios differing in the amount of information consumers have at hand to infer the seller s incentives to be honest in three constellations the profit maximizing credence goods monopolist provides honest services only in one scenario there is no trade

international trade and finance complementaries in the united kingdom 1870 1913 and the united states 1920 1930 abstract do international trade and finance flow together in a variety of theoretical models trade and finance can be shown to have the potential to be substitutes or complements so the matter must be resolved empirically we study trade and financial flows from the united kingdom from 1870 to 1913 and the united states in the interwar years these were the two major capital exporters and key financial centers in each era we find that trade and finance were robustly correlated for each case we consider simultaneity issues we also discuss evidence from the british empire which casts doubt on the idea that trade is a punishment device in the event of a default

prices inflation and smoking onset the case of argentina this article examines the effect of tobacco prices on the decision to start smoking in argentina argentina is an interesting case to explore given its high smoking rates its recent experience with periods of very high and hyperinflation and the mixed evidence of the effect of prices on smoking onset particularly in low and middle income countries we used data from four cycles of two large national surveys conducted between 2005 and 2011 and discrete time hazard models we found that tobacco prices had a statistically significant and fairly large impact on the hazard of smoking onset and these findings were robust to alternative specifications we also found that prices had little effect on the hazards of smoking onset during periods of hyper and very high inflation which provide some support for the notion that prices lose their informational role in such periods governments need to be cognizant that their most important policy tool to reduce tobacco use taxes that increase real tobacco prices is likely no longer effective during these times jel c41 h20 i12 i18

sovereign debt as intertemporal barter author s kletzer kenneth m wright brian d abstract borrowing and lending between sovereign parties is modeled as intertemporal barter that smoothes the consumption of a risk averse party subject to endowment shocks the surplus anticipated in the relationship offers sufficient incentive for cooperation by all parties including any other competitive agents who are potential lenders to the sovereign the sole punishments consist of renegotiation proof changes in the path of future payments we show that intertemporal trade can be sustained in the absence of any exogenous enforcement of lending relationships whatsoever that is borrowing and lending are possible under anarchy and are supported by punishments that consist of cheating any cheater long term implicit relationships may be fulfilled as the continual renegotiation of simple incomplete short term loans the analysis suggests that the crucial role of the explicit loan contract is the identification of the relationship and the parties involved

are international trade and factor mobility substitutes abstract this paper analyzes whether factor flows and commodity trade are substitutes or complements i e whether increasing the level of one impacts adversely or favorably on the volume of the other it derives with the aid of a new general equilibrium framework of the world which allows possible differences in factor endowments tastes and technologies across the two trading countries the necessary and sufficient condition for substitutability and complementarity the results are then further examined in two special cases a survey of different concepts of substitutability and complementarity which have appeared in the literature is also given

how social preferences shape incentives in experimental markets for credence goods credence goods markets suffer from inefficiencies caused by superior information of sellers about the surplus maximising quality while standard theory predicts that equal mark up prices solve the credence goods problem if customers can verify the quality received experimental evidence indicates the opposite we identify a lack of robustness with respect to heterogeneity in social preferences as a possible cause of this and conduct new experiments that allow for parsimonious identification of sellers social preference types our results confirm the assumed heterogeneity in social preferences and provide strong support for our explanation of the failure of verifiability to increase efficiency

the behavioral dynamics of youth smoking individual smoking behavior persists over time but the extent to which we can attribute this repeated behavior to past use or individual heterogeneity is not well understood to address this empirical question we develop a dynamic model of smoking decisions which explicitly accounts for the impact of endogenous previous smoking behavior and allows for observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity the model is estimated using longitudinal data on a representative sample of teens from all 50 united states from 1988 to 1992 we have two main findings first we show that there is a significant causal role for past cigarette consumption even after controlling extensively for observed and unobserved heterogeneity second we find measurable evidence of different sensitivities to cigarette price depending on past use these two findings suggest that a cigarette price increase will have a larger aggregate effect in the long run than in the short run as more individuals accumulate in the price sensitive non smoking group

why doesn t capital flow from rich to poor countries an empirical investigation we examine the empirical role of difierent explanations for the lack of ows of capital from rich to poor countries the lucas paradox the theoretical explanations include difierences in fundamentals across countries and capital market imperfections we show that during 1970i2000 low institutional quality is the leading explanation for example improving peru s institutional quality to australia s level implies a quadrupling of foreign investment recent studies emphasize the role of institutions for achieving higher levels of income but remain silent on the speciflc mechanisms our results indicate that foreign investment might be a channel through which institutions afiect long run development

search bargaining and signalling in the market for legal services over the last eight centuries lawyers in common law countries have generally been precluded from buying their clients cases recently a number of economists and lawyers have argued that sale should be allowed so as to eliminate moral hazard particularly when contingent fees are used this argument is based on full information reasoning however if the lawyer has private information about the case value then compensation demands potentially signal this value when the client can search over lawyers we provide a formal model and a family of computational examples that show that allowing possibly partial purchase can reduce expected social efficiency

institutions capital flows and financial integration the focus of this paper is on capital flows from developed to less developed countries and in particular on the question of why such flows are not much larger i first outline the theoretical arguments with regard to such flows and then go on to review the historical evidence on international financial integration more generally i then turn to the related literature on economic development which over the past decade has shifted its emphasis from technology and capital accumulation to the underlying institutional factors that affect investment i present evidence that such factors also affect to rich to poor country capital flows good policies e pursuit of price stability fewer direct interventions and sound institutional structures e are accompanied by higher capital flows and bad policies by lower capital flows 2006 elsevier ltd all rights reserved