nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in propagation of the great depression this paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period our approach is complementary to that of friedman and schwartz who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures we focus on non monetary primarily credit related aspects of the financial sector output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system we argue that the financial disruptions of 1930 33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the great depression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

market price behavior of wholesale electricity products texas abstract applying a regression based approach to a newly developed sample of over 60 000 hourly observations for 01 01 2011 12 30 2017 we answer the question what moves the day ahead market dam prices for energy and ancillary services as and the real time market rtm price for energy in the electric reliability council of texas ercot our answer comprises the following findings that capture the interdependence of ercot s energy and as products 1 the dam energy price increases with the day ahead forecasts of natural gas price system load and as requirements but declines with nuclear and wind generation s forecasts 2 the as prices increase with the dam energy price and the as procurement forecasts but decline with the as offer forecasts and 3 the rtm energy price increases with the dam energy price but diverges from the dam energy price due to forecasting errors related to the dam energy price s fundamental drivers these findings imply that texas can reduce the prices for day ahead energy day ahead as and real time energy via wind generation development and demand side management further texas can improve its electricity trading efficiency by improving ercot s forecast accuracy to narrow the rtm energy price s divergence from the dam energy price

the debt payment to income ratio as an indicator of borrowing constraints evidence from two household surveys liquidity constraints have been proposed as an important explanation for deviations from the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis this paper introduces to the liquidity constraint literature the ratio of a household s debt payments to its disposable personal income the debt service ratio dsr we find that a household with a high dsr is significantly more likely to be turned down for credit than other households also the consumption growth of likely constrained households identified using the dsr along with the liquid asset to income ratio is significantly more sensitive to past income than that of other households confirming the dsr s value in identifying constrained households

opposition parties and the urban poor in african democracies africa s urban poor increasingly represent a key constituency for electoral mobilization opposition parties which are pivotal for democratic consolidation have nevertheless exhibited disparate success at obtaining votes from this constituency to explain why this study focuses on the case of zambia and draws on interviews with political elites as well as a survey of informal sector workers in lusaka instead of vote buying ethnic alignments or economic voting these data show that the urban poor s voting decisions are related to the strategies used by political parties to incorporate them into the political arena opposition parties that employ populist strategies are more likely to win support from the urban poor than parties reliant on alternative modes of mobilization the advantages of a populist strategy include greater differentiation from the myriad of purely personalistic parties in africa and greater congruence with the policy priorities of the urban poor including service delivery and jobs

why do corrupt governments maintain public support this article addresses an issue often neglected by the current literature on political corruption why do citizens support corrupt governments the authors argue that people in countries where gove

debt deleveraging and the liquidity trap a fisher minsky koo approach in this paper we present a simple new keynesian style model of debt driven slumps that is situations in which an overhang of debt on the part of some agents who are forced into rapid deleveraging is depressing aggregate demand making some agents debt constrained is a surprisingly powerful assumption fisherian debt deflation the possibility of a liquidity trap the paradox of thrift a keynesiantype multiplier and a rationale for expansionary fiscal policy all emerge naturally from the model we argue that this approach sheds considerable light both on current economic difficulties and on historical episodes including japan s lost decade now in its 18th year and the great depression itself

bureaucratic capacity delegation and political reform thecentraltensionmotivatingcontemporarytheories of delegation from politicians to bureaucrats lies in the potential conflict between the value of bureaucratic expertise on one hand and the desire for political control on the other this tension is well known and has been debated at least since weber s classic work on bureaucracy modern bureaucracies are staffed with individuals who by virtue of rational bureaucratic organization are highly skilled policy experts who in principle should be able to help less knowledgeable politicians achieve their goals however the very skills and expertise that bureaucrats enjoy create the possibility that bureaucrats will usurp the rightful role of politicians in policymaking processes because the way this tension is resolved determines the ultimate compatibility of democracy and bureaucracy existing theories of delegation typically focus on understanding how and to what extent politicians can resolve it 1 in many contexts particularly developing democracies bureaucracy does not fit the weberian characteristics that are assumed in the existing delegation literature the bureaucracies may be staffed with individuals who lack the personal capacity to execute orders effectively the organizational structure may lead to breakdowns within bureaucratic hierarchies making it difficult for senior administrators to control their subordinates departments and ministries may lack basic budgets and resources to undertake implementation actions they may suffer from incentives for

house prices home equity based borrowing and the u s household leverage crisis us household leverage sharply increased in the years preceding the 2007 eco nomic recession the top panel of figure 1 shows the steady rise in household debt since 1975 which accelerated beginning in 2002 in just five years the household sector doubled its debt balance in comparison the contemporaneous increase in corporate debt was modest the middle panel shows that the increase in household debt from 2002 to 2007 translated into a striking rise in household leverage as mea sured by the debt to income ratio during the same time period corporate leverage declined the dramatic absolute and relative rise in us household leverage from 2002 to 2007 is unprecedented compared to the last 25 years one reason for the rapid expansion in household leverage during this period is that mortgage credit became more easily available to new home buyers mian and sufi 2009 strong house price appreciation from 2002 to 2006 however which may have been fueled by the availability of mortgage credit to a riskier set of new home buyers could also have had an important feedback effect on household lever age through existing homeowners given that 65 percent of us households already owned their primary residence before the acceleration in house prices the feedback from house prices to borrowing may be an important source of the rapid rise in household leverage that preceded the economic downturn our central goals in this study are to estimate how homeowner borrowing responded to the increase in house prices and to identify which homeowners responded most aggressively we examine this home equity based borrowing channel using a dataset consisting of anonymous individual credit files of a national consumer credit bureau agency we follow a random sample of over 74 000 us homeowners who owned their homes as of 1997 at an annual frequency from the end of 1997 until the end of 2008 the bottom panel of figure 1 plots the growth in debt of 1997 homeowners over time and shows that existing homeowners borrow significantly more debt as their house prices appreciate from 2002 to 2006 while the aggregate trend is suggestive

does commercialization undermine the benefits of decentralization for local services provision evidence from mexico s urban water and sanitation sector summary decentralization has been promoted as a means to better reflect citizen preferences and improve local services many developing countries decentralized and promoted neoliberal policies such as commercialization simultaneously leaving mayors with the responsibility of improving public services through self financing reforms this study evaluates experiences in three mexican cities to assess whether decentralization and commercialization practices have resulted in improved water and sanitation services it finds that commercialization has increased social conflict surrounding urban services provision and that local institutional constraints further undermine mayor s ability to adopt politically contentious policies the result has been stalled and uneven service improvements

when credit bites back using data on 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008 we document two key facts of the modern business cycle relative to typical recessions financial crisis recessions are costlier and more credit intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions in financial crises or otherwise and slower recoveries we use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macro economic controls to study how past credit accumulation impacts key macro economic variables such as output investment lending interest rates and inflation the facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that financial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle

public participation and poverty alleviation the experience of reform communists in india s west bengal abstract public participation is essential to making poverty alleviation programs responsive to the needs of the poor but it requires a political process that adequately represents their interests yet as long as the poor remain poor they are disadvantaged in securing equitable representation this article highlights the problems stemming from this paradox of participation it shows how implementing poverty alleviation programs through elected governing councils has simultaneously made policy more responsive to the poor while permitting the organizational interests of the ruling communist party to distort implementation the article highlights the importance of political competition among parties and nongovernment organizations for maximizing responsiveness to the poor

household debt and fiscal multipliers we study the size of government spending multipliers in a general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions in which we allow for different levels of household indebtedness the main results are a the presence of impatient households and private debt helps to generate government spending multipliers greater than 1 b as financial conditions worsen the size of the government spending multiplier falls c conversely employment vacancies and unemployment multipliers are larger in a credit crunch d the model explains the observed pattern of responses of labour market variables housing prices and private debt to a fiscal shock reasonably well

measuring the impact of fiscal policy in the face of anticipation a structural var approach empirical estimates of the impact of government spending shocks disagree on central issues such as the size of output multipliers and the responses of consumption and the real wage one explanation for the disagreement is that fiscal shocks are often anticipated due to misspecification of the information set anticipation effects may invalidate svar estimates of impulse responses we use economic theory to derive a fiscal svar estimator that is applicable when fiscal shocks are anticipated we study its properties and apply it to us data we fail to find evidence that anticipation effects overturn the existing findings from the fiscal svar literature despite years of intensive research the empirical literature on fiscal policy has yet to reach consensus on the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy shocks disagreements concern central issues such as the size of output multipliers and the impact of government spending shocks on consumption and the real wage clearly such level of disagreement constrains our ability to give simple guidelines for the operation of one of the most important stabilisation policies a key empirical obstacle is the measurement of innovations to fiscal policy one strand of the literature employs structural vector autoregressive svar methods and achieves identification based on the presence of decision lags or sign restrictions

private debt overhang and the government spending multiplier evidence for the united states using state dependent local projections and historical us data we find that government spending multipliers are considerably larger in periods of private debt overhang in particular while multipliers are below or close to one in low private debt states we find significant crowding in of private spending in periods of debt overhang resulting in multipliers that are much larger than one in high private debt episodes more government purchases even reduce the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product these results are robust for the type of shocks and when we control for the business cycle financial crises deleveraging episodes government debt overhang and the zero lower bound

social capital as a product of class mobilization and state intervention industrial workers in kerala india abstract this paper argues that state intervention and class mobilization in the state of kerala india have produced two forms of social capital kerala s high level of social development and successful redistributive reforms are a direct result of mutually reinforcing interactions between a programmatic labor movement and a democratic state this synergy between state and labor has also created the institutional forms and political processes required for negotiating the class compromises through which redistribution and growth can be reconciled these dynamics are explored through a close examination of both the organized factory sector and the unorganized informal sector

the permanent income hypothesis estimation and testing by instrumental variables the permanent income hypothesis with rational expectation is restated estimated and tested by an instrumental variables technique on the postwar u s aggregate time series data the hypothesis is accepted on a consumption series which includes service flows from consumer durables if the consumption series is the one in the national income and product accounts the hypothesis is decisively rejected an explanation is suggested to reconcile the conflicting test results

monetary policy inflation expectations and the price puzzle this article re examines the var evidence on the price puzzle and proposes a new theoretical interpretation using actual data and two identification strategies based on zero restrictions and model consistent sign restrictions we find that the positive response of prices to a monetary policy shock is historically limited to the sub samples that are typically associated with a weak interest rate response to inflation using pseudo data generated by a sticky price model of the us economy we then show that the structural vars are capable of reproducing the price puzzle only when monetary policy is passive the omission in the vars of a variable capturing expected inflation is found to account for the price puzzle observed in simulated and actual data structural vector autoregressions svars are widely used for measuring and understanding the effects of monetary policy innovations on the aggregate economy while most results in the var literature are consistent with economic intuition and macroeconomic theory the typically found positive and significant reaction of the price level on impact to a monetary policy shock is a fact that most monetary models

do conditional cash transfers affect electoral behavior evidence from a randomized experiment in mexico this article reexamines the argument that targeted programs increase pro incumbent voting by persuading beneficiaries to cast ballots against their first partisan choice the evidence comes from the randomized component of progresa the pioneering mexican conditional cash transfer cct program experimental data show that early enrollment in the program led to substantive increases in voter turnout and in the incumbent s vote share in the 2000 presidential election the experiment also reveals that opposition parties vote shares were unaffected by the program thus the electoral bonus generated by ccts may be best explained by a mobilizing rather than persuasive mechanism these findings are difficult to reconcile with the notion that the electoral effects of ccts are a result of prospective concerns triggered by threats of program discontinuation or endogenous program enrollment instead the evidence in this article suggests that ccts mobilizing effects are compatible with programmatic politics

a game theoretic model of reform in latin american democracies in this article the a develops a simple game theoretic model of administrative reform in latin american democracies the model which is based on the incentives facing the politicians who must initiate reforms if any are to occurt yields two predictions 1 reforms are more likely to pass the legislative hurdle when patronage is evenly distributed among the strongest parties and 2 initial reforms are more likely to be followed by further extensions of reform where the electoral weight of the top parties remains relatively even and stable attention to the incentives facing legislators and party leaders also results in the expectation that certain political institutions such as open list proportional representation and electoral rules that minimize party control over candidate lists reduce the probability of reform the a tests predictions and expectations on a set of latin american democracies and finds them consistent with historical events

american policy conflict in the greenhouse divergent trends in federal regional state and local green energy and climate change policy climate change threatens significant impacts on global ecosystems and human populations to address this challenge industrialized nations have ratified the kyoto protocol and undertaken commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases the primary agents linked to anthropogenic alteration of earth s climate by contrast the us government led by the bush administration has rejected mandatory targets for curbing emissions under the protocol and has instead pursued voluntary mitigation measures amid a larger push for clean coal and next generation nuclear technologies these actions in total have fueled global perceptions that the us is not acting in substantial ways to address climate change nevertheless action within the us is indeed moving forward with states cities and regional partnerships filling the federal leadership vacuum this paper reviews the diverse policies strategies and cooperative frameworks that have emerged at regional state and local levels to guide climate protection and identifies the environmental and economic benefits linked to such programs the paper also attempts to explain the existing federal impasse on climate policy with attention given to how sub national efforts may ultimately obviate national governmental inaction r 2007 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

macroeconomic effects from government purchases and taxes for u s annual data that include world war ii the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0 4 0 5 contemporaneously and 0 6 0 7 over 2 years if the change in defense spending is permanent gauged by ramey s defense news variable the multipliers are higher by 0 1 0 2 since all estimated multipliers are significantly less than 1 greater spending crowds out other components of gdp particularly investment the lack of good instruments prevents estimation of reliable multipliers for nondefense purchases multipliers in the literature of two or more likely reflect reverse causation from gdp to nondefense purchases increases in average marginal income tax rates measured by a newly constructed time series have significantly negative effects on gdp when interpreted as a tax multiplier the magnitude is around 1 1 the combination of the estimated spending and tax multipliers implies that the balanced budget multiplier for defense spending is negative we have some evidence that tax changes affect gdp mainly through substitution effects rather than wealth effects

neoliberalism and the transformation of populism in latin america the peruvian case latin american populism is generally associated with the developmental stage of import substitution industrialization it is thus widely presumed to have been eclipsed by the debt crisis of the 1980s and the free market reforms of the neoliberal era however the leadership of alberto fujimori in peru suggests that new forms of populism may be emerging despite the fiscal constraints of neoliberal austerity this new variant of populism thrives in a context where economic crisis and social dislocation undermine traditional representative institutions enabling personalist leaders to establish unmediated relationships with heterogeneous atomized masses political support can be cultivated through populist attacks on entrenched political elites or institutions along with targeted but highly visible poverty alleviation programs this new form of populist autocracy complements the efforts of neoliberal technocrats to circumvent the representative institutions that are integral to democratic accountability the peruvian case thus demonstrates that populism has been transformed rather than eclipsed during the neoliberal era and that it should be decoupled theoretically from any particular phase or model of economic development

making land rights accessible social movements and political legal innovation in the rural philippines abstract in recent years rule of law and legal reform has grown to be a major concern of national governments international financial institutions development agencies and donor organisations part of this concern has focused on expanding access to justice for the poor however little effort has gone into understanding the role of justice sector institutions in shaping the opportunities and limits of redistributive justice little attention has been paid to the actual workings of obstacles entrenched within the justice sector to land reform for example instead pro market scholars cite difficult legal problems as a reason to turn away from state led land reform and toward market oriented land policies yet as this paper shows a closer look at the details of dynamics around land reform in the philippines suggests that political legal problems associated with implementation of the agrarian reform law can be overcome under certain conditions it is argued that for rural poor claimants it is important

temptation in vote selling evidence from a field experiment in the philippines abstract we report the results of a randomized field experiment in the philippines on the effects of two common anti vote selling strategies involving eliciting promises from voters an invitation to promise not to vote sell is taken up by most respondents reduces vote selling and has a larger effect in races with smaller vote buying payments the treatment reduces vote selling in the smallest stakes election by 10 9 percentage points inviting voters to promise to vote your conscience despite accepting money is significantly less effective the results are consistent with a behavioral model in which voters are only partially sophisticated about their vote selling temptation

south korean and taiwanese development and the new institutional economics the publication of books by both alice amsden and robert wade provide an opportune moment to reflect on the study of east asian development after an initial surge of interest beginning in the 1970s the field has reached a plateau and scholars recently have cast a wide net in searching for ways to extend the field in assessing the state of the art regarding the economic development of the east asian newly industrialized countries nics this review will treat three themes first i will argue that the focus on states versus markets is becoming stale and that much of the scholarly interest lies in the politics behind the economics second i argue that political scientists have underexplored the historical origins of korean and taiwanese capitalism and that such attention promises to strengthen both theories and explanations of development third i argue that the international system has been more important in promoting development in east asia than accounts in the first wave have recognized the purpose of this review is to assess the field reveal

the financial cycle and macroeconomics what have we learnt abstract it is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics in the environment that has prevailed for at least three decades now it is not possible to understand business fluctuations and the corresponding analytical and policy challenges without understanding the financial cycle this calls for a rethink of modelling strategies and for significant adjustments to macroeconomic policies this essay highlights the stylised empirical features of the financial cycle conjectures as to what it may take to model it satisfactorily and considers its policy implications in the discussion of policy the essay pays special attention to the bust phase which is less well explored and raises much more controversial issues

political competition and violence in mexico hierarchical social control in local patronage structures many countries that have recently undergone transitions to democracy have experienced increases in violent crime yet sociological theories have generally failed to consider the impact of political factors on crime the author examines the relation between greater electoral competition and homicide at the subnational level in a country undergoing an uneven transition to democracy in societies characterized by the presence of patronage networks social and political changes that undermine the source of unequal exchange between actors at different levels in the social hierarchy result in a temporary loss of social control and an increase in crime the relation between electoral competition and homicide is tested using electoral results from a sample of 1 800 mexican municipalities greater electoral competition is associated with higher homicide rates across municipalities and over time even after controlling for standard correlates of violent crime consistent with the hypothesis that the increase is due to the disruption of patronage networks this association is present only in rural areas where patron client relations are more common

grounding the state devolution and development in india s panchayats decentralisation is commonly defended on the grounds that it will bring government closer to people thereby creating political structures that are more transparent and accountable to poor and marginal groups in society however a problem that is well recognised in the decentralisation literature is that the devolution of power will not necessarily improve the performance and accountability of local government indeed in many cases decentralisation simply empowers local elites to capture a larger share of public resources often at the expense of the poor reflecting on these relatively long standing problems an important strand of scholarship has argued that central government can play a central role in counterbalancing the forces that tend to disfavour the poor in this article we aim to inform this scholarship by reflecting on the interface between local government and local people in two indian states andhra pradesh ap and madhya pradesh mp drawing upon 12 months of primary research we arg

has electric utility restructuring led to lower electricity prices for residential consumers in texas this paper analyzes the determination of residential electricity prices in the competitive electric reliability council of texas ercot market this analysis suggests that electricity restructuring in texas has not yet resulted in lower prices for the majority of residential energy consumers in areas open to competition contrary to common expectations residential electricity costs for consumers at a typical 1000 kwh per month consumption level have increased at a greater rate in the areas of texas offering retail choice than in the areas of the state where retail competition has not been introduced

the difficult transition from clientelism to citizenship lessons from mexico author s fox jonathan a abstract electoral competition is necessary but not sufficient for the consolidation of democratic regimes not all elections are free and fair nor do they necessarily lead to actual civilian rule or respect for human rights if there is more to democracy than elections then there is more to democratization than the transition to elections but in spite of the rich literature on the emergence of electoral competition the dynamics of political transitions toward respect for other fundamental democratic rights is still not well understood political democracy is defined here in classic procedural terms free and fair electoral contestation for governing offices based on universal suffrage guaranteed freedoms of association and expression accountability through the rule of law and civilian control of the military although analyses of democratization typically acknowledge that these are all necessary criteria most examine only electoral competition this study however develops a framework for explaining progress toward another necessary condition for democratization respect for associational autonomy which allows citizens to organize in defense of their own interests and identities without fear of external intervention or punishment

democracy by undemocratic means elites political pacts and regime transition in brazil why has brazil failed to develop strong democratic institutions despite widespread opposition to authoritarianism and support for civilian rule in the 1980s this article argues that the political pacts bargained by elites that made the regime transition possible limited the extension of democracy by restoring to old regime elites many sources of their political power as the price for their support for democratization political pacts left the military with a substantial degree of formal and informal power over civilians preserved clientelism and undermined the ability of political parties to transform themselves into genuine transmission belts for nonelite interests the undemocratic character of the brazilian state as embodied by military autonomy technocratic modes of policymaking and executive dominance over the legislature moreover was reinforced by the defeat of parliamentarism by the constituent assembly in 1988

can government purchases stimulate the economy this essay briefly reviews the state of knowledge about the government spending multiplier drawing on theoretical work aggregate empirical estimates from the united states as well as cross locality estimates i assess the likely range of multiplier values for the experiment most relevant to the stimulus package debate a temporary deficit financed increase in government purchases i conclude that the multiplier for this type of spending is probably between 0 8 and 1 5 jel e23 e62 h50

shadow prices of social capital in rural india a nonparametric approach this article studies the role of social capital on cotton production efficiency and productivity for a sample of small farms in maharashtra india using data envelopment analysis input shadow prices are computed as an indicator of the importance of social capital relative to other inputs results suggest social capital to be the input with the highest contribution to production efficiency after land the luenberger indicator is used to assess the productivity improvement associated to an investment in social capital which is found to be on the order of 12 undertaking collective production activities is found to play an important role in improving productivity this is especially relevant to agricultural households facing important economic and institutional restrictions that make it difficult to increase conventional expensive inputs

procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers evidence from oecd countries abstract using non linear methods we argue that existing estimates of government spending multipliers in expansion and recession may yield biased results by ignoring whether government spending is increasing or decreasing in the case of oecd countries the problem originates in the fact that contrary to one s priors it is not always the case that government spending is going up in recessions i e acting countercyclically in almost as many cases government spending is actually going down i e acting procyclically since the economy does not respond symmetrically to government spending increases or decreases the true long run multiplier for bad times and government spending going up turns out to be 2 3 compared to 1 3 if we just distinguish between recession and expansion in extreme recessions the long run multiplier reaches 3 1

government spending and private consumption some international evidence this paper investigates the relationship between private consumption and publicly provided goods and services for a number of countries the empirical results show that in the aggregate private and government consumption are best described as complementary in the sense that an increase in one raises the marginal utility of the other the strength of this relationship is shown to be negatively affected by the government size these findings are robust across all specifications tried copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

hands off my regime governments restrictions on foreign aid to non governmental organizations in poor and middle income countries many resource strapped developing country governments seek international aid but when that assistance is channeled through domestic civil society it can threaten their political control as a result in the last two decades 39 of the world s 153 low and middle income countries have adopted laws restricting the inflow of foreign aid to domestically operating nongovernmental organizations ngos governments recognize that such laws harm their international reputations for supporting democracy and may invite donor punishment in terms of aid reductions yet they perceive foreign aid to ngos as supporting political opponents and threatening their grip on power in the aftermath of competitive electoral victories governments often take new legal steps to limit these groups funding we test this argument on an original dataset of laws detailing the regulation of foreign aid inflows to domestically operating ngos in 153 low and middle income countries for the period 1993 2012 using an event history approach we find that foreign aid flows are associated with an increased risk of restrictive law adoption a log unit increase in foreign aid raises the probability of adoption by 6 7 this risk is exacerbated after the holding of competitive elections the interaction of foreign aid and competitive elections increases the probability of adoption by 11

fiscal crises and aggregate demand can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy abstract this paper shows how the power of fiscal policy to affect consumption can vary depending on the level of public debt at moderate levels of debt fiscal policy has the traditional keynesian effects current generations of consumers discount future taxes because they may not be alive when taxes are raised or there will be a larger population available to pay the taxes but when debt reaches extreme values current generations of consumers know there is a high probability that they will have to pay extra taxes a fiscal deficit can have a contractionary effect in these situations

state dependent monetary policy transmission and financial market tensions is monetary policy more powerful when strains in the financial system are high applying local projections to us time series i approach this question by allowing monetary policy shocks and its propagation to the broader economy to smoothly vary according to a measure of financial market tensions the so called excess bond premium ebp i find that monetary policy impacts macroeconomic housing and financial variables stronger and more persistently when financial frictions are high

participation social capital and intersectoral problem solving african and asian cases abstract cooperation in policy program implementation between state and nongovernmental actors can sometimes solve intractable development problems but such cooperation must span gaps in culture power resources and perspective this article provides a comparative analysis of 13 cases of intersectoral cooperation among public agencies nongovernmental organizations grassroots groups and international donors the analysis reveals two successful implementation patterns nongovernment organization ngo mediated cooperation and grassroots centered cooperation different forms of social capital are central to the two patterns indigenous ngos with credibility across sectors are critical to the former while grassroots organizations are vital to the latter participatory decision making and mutual influence are essential to grassroots centered cooperation but less so for ngo mediated collaboration

political capital mexican financial policy under salinas market reform is advocated in developing countries to improve economic efficiency and prevent privileged groups from obtaining rents from the policy making process yet this prescription fails to address the complex political process that governments are likely to confront when moving toward the market this study shows how political considerations during president salinas s administration distorted economic reform in mexico during the 1990s mexican finance policy contradicted the government s declared neoliberal principles while the banks were reprivatized and deregulated they were also given a high degree of protection from competition enabling the new owners to charge excessive interest rates in addition the government artificially inflated the value of the currency through exchange rate intervention these contradictory policies are best understood as a coherent political response to the electoral vulnerability of the ruling party pri at the end of the 1980s when viable political opposition threatened the pri s ability to maintain power it responded by using financial policies to distribute economic benefits to social groups particularly business the middle class and the poor whose support was critical for electoral victory

did the expiration of retail price caps affect prices in the restructured texas electricity market on january 1 2007 the electric reliability council of texas ercot market became the first restructured market in the us to completely remove caps on the prices which could be charged to residential energy consumers by the retailers associated with the traditional or incumbent utility service providers our analysis suggests that the expiration of the price to beat ptb price caps may have led to a reduction in the average prices charged by competitive retail electric providers reps

are government spending multipliers greater during periods of slack evidence from 20th century historical data a key question that has arisen during recent debates is whether government spending multipliers are larger during periods of slack some researchers and policymakers have argued that while government spending multipliers are estimated to be modest on average they might become greater during times when resources are underutilized auerbach and gorodnichenko 2012 forthcoming henceforth ag test this hypothesis and find larger multipliers dur

austerity and private debt this study provides empirical evidence that the costs of austerity crucially depend on the level of private indebtedness in particular fiscal consolidations lead to severe contractions when implemented in high private debt states contrary fiscal consolidations have no significant effect on economic activity when private debt is low these results are robust to alternative definitions of private debt overhang the composition of fiscal consolidations and controlling for the state of the business cycle and government debt overhang i show that deterioration in household balance sheets is important to understand private debt dependent effects of austerity

market reform as a stimulus to particularistic politics we know little about how market reform affects political development especially citizens behavior market reform advocates prescribe that citizens should reduce their reliance on the state turn to nonstate actors for assistance and obtain limited state goods and services through their membership in certain social categories not their particular traits an analysis of three mass surveys and 232 interviews the author conducted in central asia along with additional data from 24 postcommunist countries reveals that market reform can have effects opposite from those prescribed individuals may make particularistic demands of government officials instead of relying on nonstate actors this occurs in countries where state economic intervention was substantial and where reforms reduced the state s economic role but failed to develop market enhancing institutions under these conditions individuals informally seek resources from state officials because nonstate actors do not offer substitute resources and

fiscal policy in good times and bad in the 1980s several countries with large government debt or deficit implemented substantial and in some cases drastic deficit cuts contrary to widespread expectations in many cases private consumption boomed rather than contracted this paper shows that in times of fiscal stress shocks to government revenues and especially expenditure have very different effects on private consumption than in normal times

fiscal policy in general equilibrium this paper studies four classic fiscal policy experiments within a quantitatively restricted neoclassical model the authors main findings are as follows 1 permanent changes in government purchases can lead to short run and long run output multipliers that exceed one 2 permanent changes in government purchases induce larger effects than temporary changes 3 the financing decision is quantitatively more important than the resource cost of changes in government purchases and 4 public investment has dramatic effects on private output and investment these findings stem from important dynamic interactions of capital and labor absent in earlier equilibrium analyses of fiscal policy copyright 1993 by american economic association

beyond the machine clientelist brokers and interest organizations in latin america organizational membership is one of the strongest yet overlooked predictors of vote buying across latin america we argue that this relationship is driven by the fact that politicians outsource some of their vote buying efforts to interest associations in contrast to the existing literature that focuses on party brokers who are loyal to a single political machine we introduce the concepts of organizational brokers who represent interest associations and renegotiate ties to political parties between election cycles and hybrid brokers who split their loyalties between an interest association and a single political party we illustrate the operation of these alternative broker types through case studies of street vending organizations in an uninstitutionalized party system colombia and peasant organizations in an institutionalized party system mexico attention to the role of brokers and the organizations that they represent has implications for political accountability collective action and the

heterogeneous government spending multipliers in the era surrounding the great recession abstract we use novel quarterly data of u s states to examine the dynamics of relative spending multipliers in the decade surrounding the great recession while multipliers were around 1 in expans

from local strongman to facilitator institutional incentives for participatory municipal governance in latin america efforts to engage citizens in democratic forms of governance in developing societies are complicated by deeply rooted socioeconomic and political inequalities in this article the authors analyze

nominal interest rates consumption booms and lack of credibility a quantitative examination abstract exchange rate based stabilization programs in chronic inflation countries have often been accompanied by an initial expansion of private consumption followed by a contraction this consumption cycle has been attributed to lack of credibility in the sense that the public views the reduction in the devaluation rate as temporary this paper assesses the quantitative relevance of the temporariness hypothesis by comparing the predictions of a simple model to the actual figures for seven major programs the paper concludes that nominal interest rates must fall substantially for the temporariness hypothesis to account for an important fraction of the observed consumption booms

the time for austerity estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy after the global financial crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data this article reconciles seemingly disparate estimates of multipliers within a unified and state contingent framework we achieve identification of causal effects with new propensity score based methods for time series data using this novel approach we show that austerity is always a drag on growth and especially so in depressed economies a 1 of gdp fiscal consolidation translates into a loss of 3 5 of real gdp over five years when implemented in a slump rather than just 1 8 in a boom

government action social capital and development reviewing the evidence on synergy abstract instead of assuming a zero sum relationship between government involvement and private cooperative efforts the five preceding articles argue for the possibility of state society synergy that active government and mobilized communities can enhance each others developmental efforts this article draws on these articles to explore the forms and sources of state society synergy i argue that synergy usually combines complementarity with embeddedness and is most easily fostered in societies characterized by egalitarian social structures ard robust coherent state bureaucracies i also argue however that synergy is constructable even in the more adverse circumstances typical of third world countries

political parties and uncertainty in developing democracies this article lays out a theoretical framework for understanding the effects of political uncertainty on party development and strategies of mobilization and competition defining uncertainty as the imprecision with which political actors are able to predict future interactions the authors identify three types of political uncertainty regime uncertainty economic uncertainty and institutional uncertainty they argue that political uncertainty is particularly high among developing democracies contributing to puzzling empirical patterns of party development and competition in these contexts taking into account the role of uncertainty in the strategic decision making of party elites will help scholars better understand the differences between parties in advanced and developing democracies but it can also help scholars understand the less dramatic differences between parties even within advanced democracies the authors theoretical framework can be applied broadly since uncertainty informs the strategic

emergence and persistence of inefficient states we present a theory of the emergence and persistence of inefficient states based on patronage politics the society consists of rich and poor the rich are initially in power but expect to transition to democracy which will choose redistributive policies taxation requires the employment of bureaucrats by choosing an inefficient state structure the rich may be able to use patronage and capture democratic politics so reducing the amount of redistribution in democracy moreover the inefficient state creates its own constituency and tends to persist over time intuitively an inefficient state structure creates more rents for bureaucrats than would an efficient one when the poor come to power in democracy they will reform the structure of the state to make it more efficient so that higher taxes can be collected at lower cost and with lower rents for bureaucrats anticipating this when the society starts out with an inefficient organization of the state bureaucrats support the rich who set lower taxes but also provide rents to bureaucrats we obtain that the rich bureaucrats coalition may also expand the size of bureaucracy excessively so as to generate enough political support the model shows that an equilibrium with an inefficient state is more likely to arise when there is greater income inequality when bureaucratic rents take intermediate values and when individuals are sufficiently forward looking jel p16 h11 h26 h41

output spillovers from fiscal policy in this paper we estimate the cross country spillover effects of government purchases on output for a large number of oecd countries following the methodology in auerbach and gorodnichenko 2012a b we allow these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and use real time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components we also consider the responses of other key macroeconomic variables our findings suggest that cross country spillovers have an important impact and also confirm those of our earlier papers that fiscal shocks have a larger impact when the affected country is in recession

the output effect of fiscal consolidation plans abstract we show that the correct experiment to evaluate the effects of a fiscal adjustment is the simulation of a multi year fiscal plan rather than of individual fiscal shocks simulation of fiscal plans adopted by 16 oecd countries over a 30 year period supports the hypothesis that the effects of consolidations depend on their design fiscal adjustments based upon spending cuts are much less costly in terms of output losses than tax based ones and have especially low output costs when they consist of permanent rather than stop and go changes in taxes and spending the difference between tax based and spending based adjustments appears not to be explained by accompanying policies including monetary policy it is mainly due to the different responses of business confidence and private investment

fiscal stimulus and consumer debt in the aftermath of the consumer debt induced recession policymakers have questioned whether fiscal stimulus is effective during periods of high consumer indebtedness this study empirically inves

estimating fiscal multipliers news from a non linear world we estimate non linear vars to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are countercyclical in the us we deal with the issue of non fundamentalness due to fiscal foresight by appealing to sums of revisions of expectations of fiscal expenditures this measure of anticipated fiscal shocks is shown to carry valuable information about future dynamics of public spending results based on generalised impulse responses suggest that fiscal spending multipliers in recessions are greater than one but not statistically larger than those in expansions however non linearities arise when focusing on extreme events that is deep recessions versus strong expansionary periods

credit booms and macrofinancial stability this paper explores several questions about credit booms and busts when do credit booms occur when do they end up in busts and when do they not what are the implications for different policies if curbing credit growth and or mitigating the associated risks is an objective we find that credit booms are often associated with financial reform and economic growth they also tend to be more frequent in fixed exchange rate regimes only one in three credit boom episodes are followed by a financial crisis these booms tend to be larger and last longer macroprudential tools have at times proven effective in containing booms and more often in limiting the consequences of busts due to the buffers they helped to build

supporters or challengers the effects of nongovernmental organizations on local politics in bolivia how do nongovernmental organizations ngos affect local politics in developing democracies specifically do ngos have systematic effects on the fortunes of incumbent political parties in local elections existing work predicts starkly contradictory political effects some scholars claim that ngos most likely help incumbents by providing services for which politicians can claim credit whereas others believe that ngos most likely hurt incumbents by facilitating political opposition the authors argue that both of these effects are possible depending on the size of a jurisdiction s population in smaller populations the authors hypothesize that ngos facilitate collective action and decrease the ability of an incumbent to claim credit for projects larger jurisdictions water down the effect of ngos on collective action and permit incumbents credit claiming strong support is found for hypotheses using electoral sociodemographic and ngo data for all of 314 municipalities in bolivia

household debt overhang and transmission of monetary policy we investigate how the level of household indebtedness affects the monetary transmission mechanism in the u s economy using state dependent local projection methods we find that the effects of monetary policy are less powerful during periods of high household debt in particular the impact of monetary policy shocks is smaller on gdp consumption residential investment house prices and household debt during a high debt state we then build a partial equilibrium model of borrower households with financial constraints to rationalize these facts the model points to the weakening of the home equity loan channel as a possible reason for the decline in monetary policy effectiveness when initial debt levels are high

pressure or prudence tales of market pressure and fiscal adjustment abstract we study whether multiyear fiscal adjustment plans in 17 oecd countries during 1980 2011 have been associated with market pressure we find that only a fraction of the consolidations occurred under market pressure suggesting that market pressure is important but not the main element associated with consolidation plans many adjustments under market pressure were also clustered around external shocks and entailed larger median fiscal adjustments than other multiyear consolidations in contrast we find that virtually all multiyear consolidations aimed at reducing budget deficits occurred with initially weak macro fiscal fundamentals

the market for public office why the indian state is not better at development abstract how and why officials are transferred from one post to another can in india does have far reaching consequences for the effectiveness of public service organizations such as irrigation agriculture forestry and soil conservation departments the transfer mechanism used in many departments of indian states involves a kind of internal labor market a truer market than in the way that term is often used by labor market economists it allows pressures for corrupt behavior to bear down on the incumbents of certain posts and itself amplifies those pressures frequently the pressures on officials to be corrupt cause them to behave in ways contrary to the ostensible objectives of their departments why is the indian state not better at promoting development to an important degree because of the corruption transfer mechanism and its effects on bureaucratic initiatives

a review of efforts to restructure texas electricity market abstract comparisons suggest that texas has been relatively successful in its efforts to introduce greater competition and customer choice into its unique electricity market center for advancement of electricity markets 2002 yet texas has defied many of the common prescriptions in designing its market texas has yet to establish a nodal congestion management system that directly assigns local congestion costs to entities responsible for creating transmission congestion a liquid power exchange or spot market is absent programs designed to encourage demand side responsiveness had a slow start market concentration remains high market oversight activities are poorly funded a generation adequacy mechanism or planning reserve margin requirement remains under debate has texas simply been lucky in averting any real disasters or are these market features less important than commonly recognized this article reviews the restructuring initiative and reports some key lessons learned following the first twenty months under the new wholesale market structure and fifteen months of retail competition