tax policy asset prices and growth a general equilibrium analysis abstract this paper presents a computable general equilibrium tax policy model that combines a consideration of disaggregate industry effects with an integrated treatment of short and long run adjustments to policy initiatives the model s explicit consideration of forward looking investment decisions and adjustment dynamics permits assessments of short run effects of tax policy on asset values as well as long term impacts on capital accumulation simulations reveal that effects on asset values and investment depend critically on whether policies are oriented toward new or old capital investment tax credits yield significant increases in investment without conferring windfall gains to corporate shareholders corporate tax cuts with the same revenue cost on the other hand yield large windfalls to shareholders while providing only a modest investment stimulus incidence and growth effects differ considerably across sectors particularly between business and housing

the specification and estimation of interrelated factor demands under uncertainty abstract this paper studies a model of the firm s interrelated demands for the factors of production incorporating exogenous variables with uncertain future values multiple quasi fixed factors depreciation in use and non symmetric internal costs of adjustment the inputs considered are production labor non production workers capital inventories of non finished goods and capacity and non production worker utilization rates a simultaneous system of factor demand equations with constraints is estimated and using u s manufacturing data the model is shown to be tractable under certain assumptions the results are encouraging given the complexity and the nature of the model

idiosyncratic variation of treasury bill yields i document a dramatic increase in the importance of two types of variation in treasury bill yields beginning in the early 1980s the first is idiosyncratic variation in individual short maturity less than three months bill yields the second is a common component in treasury bill yields that is not shared by yields on other instruments such as short maturity privately issued instruments or longer maturity treasury notes and bonds some evidence suggests the first type reflects increased market segmentation these results have important implications for the calibration and testing of no arbitrage term structure models and interpreting tests of the expectations hypothesis united states treasury bill yields play a central role in economists efforts to understand the behavior of financial markets the focus on treasury bills is driven by the belief that bill yields can be viewed as benchmarks from which yields on other debt instruments are derived for example in no arbitrage models of the default free term structure the stochastic properties of the hypothetical instantaneous interest rate determine bond prices researchers often construct and evaluate these models using short maturity bill yields as proxies for instantaneous interest rates similarly bill yields are frequently used to test the expectations hypothesis of the term structure 2 economists standard pricing models for default risky securities also view treasury yields as building blocks in such models yields on default risky securities depend at least in part on the yields of default free securities and the underlying stochastic default process therefore yields on treasury bills have been used in studies of the effects of monetary policy on the business cycle not because bills are intrinsically critical to the economy but because

assessing monetary policies in the eurozone u s u k and japan new evidence from the post crisis period abstractthe global financial crisis of 2007 changed the way central banks implement monetary policies this article examines the transmission of both conventional and unconventional monetary polici

monetary policy uncertainty and the response of the yield curve to policy shocks this paper studies the non linear response of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy shocks and presents a new stylized fact we show that uncertainty about monetary policy changes the way the term structure responds to monetary policy a policy tightening leads to a significantly smaller increase in long term bond yields if policy uncertainty is high at the time of the shock we also look at the decomposition of bond yields into expectations about future policy and the term premium the weaker response of yields is driven by the fall in term premia which fall even more if uncertainty about policy is high these findings are robust to the measurement of monetary policy uncertainty the definition of the monetary policy shock and to changing the model specification conditional on a monetary policy shock higher uncertainty about monetary policy tends to make yields of longer maturities relatively more attractive as a consequence investors demand even lower term premia this intuition is supported by long term monetary pol icy disagreement which leads to opposite effects with term premia increasing even more after a policy shock

term structures of inflation expectations and real interest rates i use a statistical model to combine various surveys to produce a term structure of inflation expectations inflation expectations at any horizon and an associated term structure of real interest ra

uk term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound this paper employs a zero lower bound zlb consistent shadow rate model to decompose uk nominal yields into expectation and term premium components compared to a standard affine term structure model it performs relatively better in a zlb setting by capturing the stylized facts of the yield curve the zlb model is then exploited to estimate inflation expectations and risk premiums this entails jointly pricing and decomposing nominal and real uk yields we find evidence that medium and long term inflation expectations are contained within narrower bounds since the early 1990s suggesting monetary policy credibility improved after the introduction of inflation targeting

generalized q models for investment the authors extend the q theory of investment to allow for adjustment costs for labor under the additional assumption that the firm is a monopolistic competitor in the output market the issue of nonconstant returns to scale is also discussed the authors show that the standard q model is a special case of a more general model involving testable parameter restrictions estimates for the u s manufacturing sector suggest that the departure from the assumption of perfect competition and lack of adjustment costs for labor receive empirical support in the data copyright 1991 by mit press

a probability based stress test of federal reserve assets and income to support the economy the federal reserve amassed a large portfolio of long term bonds we assess the fed s associated interest rate risk including potential losses to its treasury securities holdings and declines in remittances to the treasury unlike past examinations of this interest rate risk we attach probabilities to alternative interest rate scenarios these probabilities are obtained from a dynamic term structure model that respects the zero lower bound on yields the resulting probability based stress test finds that the fed s losses are unlikely to be large and remittances are unlikely to exhibit more than a brief cessation

extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure a joint model of the uk nominal and real yield curves abstract this paper analyses the uk interest rate term structure over the period since october 1992 when the united kingdom adopted an explicit inflation target using an affine term structure model estimated using both government bond yields and survey data the model imposes no arbitrage restrictions across nominal and real yields which enables interest rates to be decomposed into expected real policy rates expected inflation real term premia and inflation risk premia the model is used to shed light on major developments over the period including the impact of bank of england independence and the low real bond yield conundrum

macroeconomics and the term structure this paper provides an overview of the analysis of the term structure of interest rates with a special emphasis on recent developments at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance the topic is important to investors and also to policymakers who wish to extract macroeconomic expectations from longer term interest rates and take actions to influence those rates the simplest model of the term structure is the expectations hypothesis which posits that long term interest rates are expectations of future aver age short term rates in this paper we show that many features of the configuration of interest rates are puzzling from the perspective of the expectations hypothesis we review models that explain these anomalies using time varying risk premia although the quest for the fundamental macroeconomic explanations of these risk premia is ongoing inflation uncertainty seems to play a large role finally while modern finance theory prices bonds and other assets in a single unified framework we also consider an earlier approach based on segmented markets market segmentation seems important to understand the term structure of interest rates during the recent financial crisis jel e31 e43 e52 e58

unconventional monetary policy fiscal side effects and euro area im balances we study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area using structural vector autoregressions identified with external instruments the instruments are based on the common unexpected variation in euro area sovereign yields for different maturities on policy announcement days we first show that expansionary monetary surprises are effective at lowering public and private interest rates and increasing economic activity consumer prices and inflation expectations we then document that the shocks lead to a rise in primary public expenditures and a widening of internal trade balances

non convexities in the adjustment of different capital inputs a firm level investigation recent developments in investment research have highlighted the importance of non convexities and irreversibilities in firms adjustment of quasi fixed inputs aggregation across capital goods may smooth out the discontinuities associated with the adjustment of individual assets lack of suitable data is one of the reasons why empirical work has typically relied on the assumption of capital homogeneity in this paper we exploit a data set of 1539 italian firms which allows us to disaggregate capital into equipment and structures and purchases and sales of assets we construct measures of fundamental q to capture investment opportunities associated with each asset we uncover the pattern of dynamic adjustment by using non parametric techniques to relate each individual investment to its own fundamental q

general equilibrium electricity generation technologies and the cost of carbon abatement a structural sensitivity analysis abstract electricity generation is a major contributor to carbon dioxide emissions and abatement in this sector is a key determinant of economy wide regulation costs the complexity of an integrated representation of economic and electricity systems makes simplifying assumptions appealing but there is no evidence in the literature on how important the pitfalls may be the aim of this paper is to provide such evidence drawing on numerical simulations from a suite of partial and general equilibrium models that share common technological features and are calibrated to the same benchmark data we report two basic findings first general equilibrium inter sectoral effects of an economy wide carbon policy are large it follows that assessing abatement potentials and price changes in the electricity sector with a partial equilibrium marshallian demand can only provide a crude approximation of the complex demand side interactions second we provide evidence that widely used top down representations of electricity technologies produce fuel substitution patterns that are inconsistent with bottom up cost data this supports the view that the parametrization of substitution possibilities with highly aggregated production functions is difficult to validate empirically the overall picture that emerges is one of large quantitative and even qualitative differences highlighting the role of key structural assumptions in the interpretation of climate policy projections

quantitative easing and the post crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries abstract this paper examines gross financial inflows to developing countries between 2000 and 2013 with a focus on the potential effects of quantitative easing qe policies in the united states and other high income countries we find evidence for potential transmission of qe along observable liquidity portfolio balancing and confidence channels moreover we find that qe had an additional latent effect over and above these observable channels one that survives an array of robustness tests retains its significance across different types of financial flows and which cannot be attributed to changes in expectations or elasticity our baseline estimates place the lower bound of a qe effect at around 5 percent of gross inflows above trend for the average developing economy which is a magnitude comparable to a one standard deviation change along the traditional channels we also find evidence of heterogeneity among different types of flows portfolio especially bond flows tend to be more sensitive than fdi to our measured qe effects

alternative policy impacts on us ghg emissions and energy security a hybrid modeling approach abstract this study addresses the possible impacts of energy and climate policies namely corporate average fleet efficiency cafe standard renewable fuel standard rfs and clean energy standard ces and an economy wide equivalent carbon tax on ghg emissions in the us to the year 2045 bottom up and top down modeling approaches find widespread use in energy economic modeling and policy analysis in which they differ mainly with respect to the emphasis placed on technology of the energy system and or the comprehensiveness of endogenous market adjustments for this study we use a hybrid energy modeling approach markal macro that combines the characteristics of two divergent approaches in order to investigate and quantify the cost of climate policies for the us and an equivalent carbon tax the approach incorporates macro economic feedbacks through a single sector neoclassical growth model while maintaining sectoral and technological detail of the bottom up optimization framework with endogenous aggregated energy demand our analysis is done for two important objectives of the us energy policy ghg reduction and increased energy security our results suggest that the emission tax achieves results quite similar to the ces policy but very different results in the transportation sector the cafe standard and rfs are more expensive than a carbon tax for emission reductions however the cafe standard and rfs are much more efficient at achieving crude oil import reductions the gdp losses are 2 0 and 1 2 relative to the base case for the policy case and carbon tax that difference may be perceived as being small given the increased energy security gained from the cafe and rfs policy measures and the uncertainty inherent in this type of analysis

inflation indexed bonds and nominal bonds financial innovation and precautionary motives this paper introduces a two period monetary general equilibrium model with proportional transaction costs on nominal and inflation indexed bonds this paper demonstrates that financial innovation on indexed bonds causes equilibrium interest rates of the nominal bond to increase when agents have precautionary saving motives this result implies that ignoring precautionary motives would underestimate savers welfare gain and overestimate borrowers welfare gain from innovation on indexed bonds

inflation expectations real rates and risk premia evidence from inflation swaps this paper develops a model of the term structures of nominal and real interest rates driven by state variables representing the short term real interest rate expected inflation inflation s central tendency and four volatility factors that follow garch processes we derive analytical solutions for nominal bond yields yields on inflation indexed bonds that have an indexation lag and the term structure of expected inflation unlike prior studies the model s parameters are estimated using data on inflation swap rates as well as nominal yields and survey forecasts of inflation the volatility state variables fully determine bonds time varying risk premia and allow for stochastic volatility and correlation between bond yields yet they have small effects on the cross section of nominal yields allowing for time varying volatility is particularly important for real interest rate and expected inflation processes but long horizon real and inflation risk premia are relatively stable

a survey of the international evidence and lessons learned about unconventional monetary policies is a new normal in our future this study examines the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies ump it considers whether these policies have been successful and where their effects remain uncertain we survey both the domestic financial market and macro economic effects of ump in the economies where these policies were introduced and their international spillover effects the paper considers the impact of a wide range of ump rather than the effects of specific policy instruments we also provide a retrospective on the important case of japan beginning in the late1990s and ask whether the eurozone s experience with ump is substantively different given its structure of policymaking finally we ask if the old normal is not in our future should the new normal in monetary policy routinely include what we now refer to as ump we conclude that ump can prevent economic collapse but are not designed to promote stronger long term economic growth apart from new communication strategies the use of ump under normal circumstances does not appear to be a sound monetary policy strategy failure to learn this lesson might also enable future policy makers to ask or expect too much from their central banks

multiple capital inputs q and investment spending despite their explicit treatment of dynamics and solid theoretical basis investment models based on the brainard tobin q have recorded a generally disappointing empirical performance when the q model is expanded to recognize the possibility that the value of the firm depends on two or more capital inputs with differing adjustment cost technologies the econometric equation following from optimizing behavior includes q as well as a set of additional explanatory variables the importance of these omitted variables is assessed and the capital homogeneity assumption for equipment and structures implicit in conventional q models is rejected the multi capital q model is then extended in two ways i adding inventory research and development and labor as quasi fixed factors and ii exploring the sensitivity of the instrumental variables estimates to normalization we conclude that the multi capital q model is a useful extension that overcomes an important omitted variables problem in the conventional q framework

a top down bottom up modeling approach to climate change policy analysis abstract this paper analyzes macroeconomic impacts of u s climate change policies for three different emissions pathways using a top down bottom up integrated model the integrated model couples a technology rich bottom up model of the u s electricity sector with a fully dynamic forward looking general equilibrium model of the u s economy our model provides a unique and consistent modeling framework for climate change analysis because of the model s detail and flexibility we use it to examine additional scenarios to analyze many of the major uncertainties surrounding the implementation and impact of climate change policies the role of command and control measures loss in flexibility mechanisms such as banking limits on low emitting technology and availability of offsets the results consistently demonstrate that those policies that combine market oriented abatement incentives with full flexibility are the most cost effective

government intervention and strategic trading in the u s treasury market we study the impact of permanent open market operations pomos by the federal reserve on u s treasury market liquidity using a parsimonious model of speculative trading we conjecture that i this form of government intervention improves market liquidity contrary to conclusions drawn by existing literature and ii the extent of this improvement depends on the market s information environment evidence from a novel sample of federal reserve pomos during the 2000s indicates that bid ask spreads of on the run treasury securities decline when pomos are executed by an amount increasing in proxies for information heterogeneity among speculators fundamental volatility and pomo policy uncertainty consistent with our model

assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations abstract this paper proposes a new approach to assess the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations we extend the static setup of the predominant news regressions by introducing exponential smooth transition autoregressive dynamics our approach provides estimates of a market perceived inflation target as well as the strength of the anchor that holds expectations at that target a cross country study based on a new data set of daily break even inflation rates for the us emu uk and sweden shows that the degree of anchoring varies substantially across countries and expectations horizons

market power and inflation market power exercised by firms has become central to macroeconomics recent theoretical work highlights the importance of the relation between market power and inflation we examine this relation for individual firms in eleven u s industries our econometric framework exploits restrictions from dynamic theory and information from financial markets to generate quantitative evidence on the responsiveness of market power to inflation we find that inflation usually has a positive effect on market power this relation is heterogeneous across the eleven industries and statistically significant positive relations are concentrated in industries with little market power

nonconvex costs and the behavior of inventories this paper explores one possible explanation for the apparent excess volatility of production relative to sales nonconvexities in the technology facing firms it is shown that if firms operate in a region of declining marginal costs then small shifts in demand can cause production to jump substantially estimates for six production to stock industries as well as the automobile industry suggest that all these industries behave as if they were operating in the region of nonconvex costs the results have important implications not only for inventory investment but also for the cyclical behavior of productivity and prices

do central bank liquidity facilities affect interbank lending rates in response to the global financial crisis that started in august 2007 central banks provided extraordinary amounts of liquidity to the financial system to investigate the effect of central bank liquidity facilities on term interbank lending rates near the start of the crisis we estimate a six factor arbitrage free model of u s treasury yields financial corporate bond yields and term interbank rates this model can account for fluctuations in the term structure of credit and liquidity spreads observed in the data a significant shift in model estimates after the announcement of the liquidity facilities suggests that these central bank actions did help lower the liquidity premium in term interbank rates

inflation risk premia in the term structure of interest rates this paper estimates the size and dynamics of inflation risk premia in the euro area based on a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics information from both nominal and index linked yields is used in the empirical analysis our results indicate that the inflation risk premium on euro area 10 year nominal yields was approximately equal to 20 basis points on average over the 1999 2007 period the inflation premium has also been subject to moderate but statistically significant fluctuations for the post 2003 period in which reliable index linked bond prices are available our results suggest that increases in the raw break even inflation rate above 2 the upper bound of the european central bank s definition for price stability have mostly reflected variations in the inflation risk premium while long term inflation expectations have remained well anchored

the impact of large scale asset purchases on the s p 500 index long term interest rates and unemployment after the bankruptcy of lehman brothers in september 2008 and the financial panic that ensued the federal reserve moved rapidly to reduce the federal funds rate to 25 it was quickly judged that additional measures were needed to stabilize the us economy beginning in december 2008 the federal reserve bank initiated three rounds of unconventional monetary policies known as quantitative easing qe these policies were intended to reduce long term interest rates when the short term federal funds rates had reached the zero lower bound and could not become negative it was argued that the lowering of longer term interest rates would help the stock market and thus the wealth of consumers this article carefully investigates three hypotheses qe impacting long term interest rates qe impacting the stock market and qe impacting unemployment using a markov regime switching methodology we conclude that qe has contributed significantly to increases in the stock market but less significantly to long term inter

the response of interest rates to us and uk quantitative easing we analyse declines in government bond yields following announcements by the federal reserve and the bank of england of plans to buy longer term debt using dynamic term structure models we decompose us and uk yields into expectations about future short term interest rates and term premiums we find that declines in us yields mainly reflected lower expectations of future short term interest rates while declines in uk yields appeared to reflect reduced term premiums thus the relative importance of the signalling and portfolio balance channels of quantitative easing may depend on market institutional structures and central bank communication policies

the relation between price and marginal cost in u s industry an examination of data on output and labor input reveals that some u s industries have marginal cost well below price the conclusion rests on the finding that cyclical variations in labor input are small compared with variations in output in booms firms produce substantially more output and sell it for a price that exceeds the costs of the added inputs the paper documents the disparity between price and marginal cost where marginal cost is estimated from annual variations in cost it considers a variety of explanations of the findings that are consistent with competition but none is found to be completely plausible

business tax policy the lucas critique and lessons from the 1980 s in 1976 robert lucas published a devastating critique of the then current practice for quantifying the effects of alternative policies he argued that in formulating plans economic agents necessarily look into the future and thus the decision rules guiding their actions depend on parameters describing the expectations of future variables as well as parameters of taste and technology lucas viewed economic policy as the selection of rules that generate the values of policy variables rather than the selection of arbitrary sequences of policy variables thus any change in policy will systematically alter the structure of econometric models 1981 p 126 and the estimated coefficients in the then current consumption wageprice or investment models could not be considered structural that is invariant to alternative policy regimes the important and damning implication for policy analysis is that these econometric relationships will prove unstable in precisely those situations in which they are called upon to analyze proposed policies this paper seeks to exploit the substantial variation in business tax policy during the 1980 s to shed some light on the quantitative importance of the lucas critique lc and to evaluate the ability of explicit theory to enhance econometric analysis in august of 1981 the economic agenda of the reagan revolution began to be put in place with the passage of the economic recovery tax act erta this was followed by the tax equity and fiscal responsibility act of 1982 the deficit reduction act of 1984 and the tax reform act of 1986 other changes such as the increase in defense spending and growth of and restrictions on the federal deficit indicate that expectations of the current and future course of fiscal policy were altered radically during the reagan administration maintained in this paper is the assumption that these changes in tax and other aspects of fiscal policy can be viewed as an unanticipated change in policy regime in regard to the 1981 legislation the economic report of the president claimed that t his tax policy is a sharp break from the policies of the recent past it reflects a different understanding of the way tax policy affects the u s economy 1982 p 109 under the assumption that the 1980 s witnessed a fundamental change in the stochastic process characterizing fiscal policy econometric equations susceptible to the lc should become temporally unstable those models that successfully address the lc by isolating expectation parameters should remain stable the quantitative importance of the lc is evaluated by examining the stability of four different econometric models of business investment that to varying degrees are vulnerable to the lc the neoclassical model studied extensively by robert hall and dale jorgenson 1967 robert eisner and m ishaq nadiri 1968 and their numerous collaborators the q model associated with james tobin the vector autoregressive model var s advanced by christopher sims 1982 and a hybrid var model var h used to study investment by robert gordon and john veitch 1986 since the four models differ in the extent to which they are guided by explicit theoretical frameworks these results will also be useful in assessing the impact of economic theory on econometric performance university of chicago chicago il 60637 i thank charles hulten robert lucas and allen sinai for critical comments on a preliminary draft all errors omissions and conclusions remain my sole responsibility

term premia and inflation uncertainty empirical evidence from an international panel dataset comment term premia implied by maximum likelihood estimates of affine term structure models are misleading because of small sample bias we show that accounting for this bias alters the conclusions about the trend cycle and macroeconomic determinants of the term premia estimated in wright 2011 his term premium estimates are essentially acyclical and often just parallel the secular trend in longterm interest rates in contrast bias corrected term premia show pronounced countercyclical behavior consistent with theoretical and empirical arguments about movements in risk premia jel e31 e43 e52 g12 h63 in an important recent paper wright 2011 presents a new international interest rate dataset and estimates term premia in far ahead forward rates using an affine gaussian dynamic term structure model dtsm as well as a survey based method he then relates these empirical term premia to macroeconomic conditions notably inflation uncertainty in particular he shows that the marked secular decline in estimated forward term premia across countries is correlated with decreases in measures of uncertainty around forecasts of future inflation in this comment we demonstrate that his model based term premium estimates are distorted by smallsample bias in the estimated model parameters accounting for this bias changes the behavior of the resulting term premium estimates in terms of their trend and cyclical behavior in an affine gaussian dtsm bond yields are determined by a small number of risk factors and the dynamic evolution of these risk factors follows a gaussian vector autoregression var if the risk factors in such a model are observable and if the model is maximally flexible i e if it has no parameter restrictions beyond those required for identification we know from joslin singleton and zhu 2011 that the maximum likelihood estimates of the var parameters can be found by

investment in greek manufacturing under irreversibility and uncertainty the message in used capital expenditures this article contributes to the existing literature by showing that uncertainty produces a nonuniform impact to the extent that different types of capital goods exhibit heterogeneous irreversibility which we define as asset specific irreversibility hence asset specific irreversibility is responsible for asymmetries in responses across types of capital goods to uncertainty we also show that for a given type of capital good uncertainty produces a variety of responses across sectors which we define sector specific irreversibility in other words sectoral differences in terms of the ability to substitute a given type of capital with labour introduce a second order effect of uncertainty on investment

expectation and duration at the effective lower bound abstract with risk averse arbitrageurs and an effective lower bound elb on nominal rates nonlinear interactions among short rate expectations bond supply and term premia emerge in equilibrium these interactions which are absent from affine models help explain the observed behavior of the yield curve near the elb including evidence about unconventional monetary policy the impact of both short rate expectations and bond supply are attenuated at the elb however in simulations of the post crisis experience in the u s shocks to investors duration risk exposures have much smaller effects than shocks to the anticipated path of short rates the latter shocks matter in part because of the reduction in interest rate volatility associated with a longer expected stay at the elb a novel channel of unconventional policy

quantitative easing auctions of treasury bonds abstract the federal reserve uses reverse auctions to implement its purchases of treasury bonds in quantitative easing qe to evaluate dealers offers across multiple bonds the fed relies on its internal yield curve model fitted to secondary market bond prices from november 2010 to september 2011 a one standard deviation increase in the cheapness of a treasury bond how much the market price of the bond is below a model implied value increases the fed s purchase quantity of that bond by 276 million and increases the auction costs on that bond by 2 6 cents per 100 par value controlling for standard covariates our results suggest that the fed harvests gains from trades by purchasing undervalued bonds but strategic dealers extract some profits because the fed s relative values can be partly inferred from price data

quantitative easing and unconventional monetary policy an introduction this article assesses the impact of quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policies followed by central banks in the wake of the financial crisis that began in 2007 we consider the implications of theoretical models for the effectiveness of asset purchases and look at the evidence from a range of empirical studies we also provide an overview of the contributions of the other articles in this feature

macroeconomic driven prepayment risk and the valuation of mortgage backed securities we develop a three factor no arbitrage model for valuing mortgage backed securities in which we solve for the implied prepayment function from the cross section of market prices this model closely fits the cross section of mortgage backed security prices without needing to specify an econometric prepayment model we find that implied prepayments are generally higher than actual prepayments providing direct evidence of significant macroeconomic driven prepayment risk premiums in mortgage backed security prices we also find evidence that mortgage backed security prices were significantly affected by fannie mae credit risk and the federal reserve s quantitative easing programs received may 10 2016 editorial decision september 22 2017 by editor stijn van nieuwerburgh

affine model of inflation indexed derivatives and inflation risk premium abstract this paper proposes an affine based approach which jointly captures the nominal interest rate the real interest rate and the inflation risk premium to price inflation indexed derivatives including zero coupon inflation indexed swaps year on year inflation indexed swaps inflation indexed swaptions and inflation indexed caps and floors we provide an example and explain how to use traded zero coupon inflation indexed swap rates to estimate inflation risk premiums

expectation puzzles time varying risk premia and dynamic models of the term structure abstract linear projections of returns on the slope of the yield curve have contradicted the implications of the traditional expectations theory this paper shows that these findings are not puzzling relative to a large class of richer dynamic term structure models specifically we match all the key empirical findings reported by fama and bliss 1987 american economic review 77 4 680 692 and campbell and shiller 1991 review of economic studies 58 495 514 among others within large subclasses of affine and quadratic gaussian term structure models additionally we show that certain risk premium adjusted projections of changes in yields on the slope of the yield curve recover the coefficients of unity predicted by the models key to this matching are parameterizations of the market prices of risk that let the risk factors affect the market prices of risk directly and not only through factor volatilities the risk premiums have a simple form consistent with fama s findings on the predictability of forward rates and are also shown to be consistent with interest rate feedback rules used by a monetary authority in setting monetary policy

monetary policy bond returns and debt dynamics abstract using the government s intertemporal budget constraint we quantify the contribution of returns paid on the u s government s debt portfolio to the evolution of the debt to gdp ratio we show that announcements of unconventional monetary policy measures by the federal reserve between 2008 iv and 2012 as a part of macroeconomic stabilization were associated with a sizable increase in returns and debt to gdp ratios and contributed to fiscal imbalances we use the federal reserve s portfolio composition as a proxy for unconventional monetary policy measures and show that it is significantly related to future bond returns and fiscal balances

the q theory of investment with many capital goods the q theory of investment which relates investment to the ratio of market to replacement value of capital has attracted considerable attention in a recent series of papers for instance a q variable has been used as an independent variable in empirical investment equations estimated by george von furstenberg 1977 von furstenberg et al 1980 burton malkiel et al 1979 and others these papers however leave somewhat unclear the theoretical rationale for using q as an investment determinant this has motivated work by hiroshi yoshikawa 1980 lawrence summers 1981 michael salinger and summers 1981 and fumio hayashi 1982 who show that under certain conditions the rate of investment of a sharevalue maximizing firm is indeed a function of q this is an important result because it shows that investment equations with q an independent variable are not ad hoc constructions rather they are grounded in a theory of the firm with an appealing behavioral hypothesis viz value maximization an important assumption underlying this research is that capital can be treated as a homogeneous good of course this is an extremely common assumption in the analysis of investment and is not particularly more bothersome in the q theory context than elsewhere nonetheless there are certain situations where it may be desirable or even essential to be able to study investment disaggregated by type of capital good thus the purpose of this paper is to examine whether and how the q theory can be extended to this more general case 1 intuitively one would expect some difficulty with the q theory in the many capitalgood context as already noted by james tobin and william brainard 1977 p 243 and by salinger and summers p 12 one way to see why is to recall the tobin brainard distinction between marginal and average q as hayashi writes

the liquidity effects of official bond market intervention to ensure depth and liquidity the european central bank intervened in sovereign debt markets through its securities markets programme smp providing a unique opportunity to estimate the effects of large scale asset purchases on sovereign bond liquidity premia from reduced form estimates we find robust economically significant impact and lasting reductions in sovereign bonds liquidity premia in response to official purchases we develop a search based asset pricing model to understand our empirical results the theory implies that bond liquidity premia fall in response to both official purchases and rising sovereign default probabilities as seen in the data

dynamic factor demands under rational expectations we model the industrial demands for structures equipment and blue and white collar labor in a manner consistent with rational expectations and stochastic dynamic optimization in the presence of adjustment costs but allowing generality of functional form we represent the technology by a translog input requirement function that specifies the amount of blue collar labor needed to produce an output level given quantities of three quasi fixed factors nonproduction workers equipment and structures a complete description of the production structure is obtained by simultaneously estimating the input requirement function and three stochastic euler equations we find adjustment costs are small in total but large on the margin and differ considerably across factors

channels of us monetary policy spillovers to international bond markets abstract we show significant us monetary policy mp spillovers to international bond markets our methodology identifies us mp shocks as the change in short term treasury yields around federal open market committee meetings and traces their effects on international bond yields using panel regressions we emphasize three main results first us mp spillovers to long term yields have increased substantially after the 2007 2009 global financial crisis second spillovers are large compared with the effects of other events and at least as large as the effects of domestic mp after 2008 third spillovers work through different channels concentrated in risk neutral rates expectations of future mp rates for developed countries but predominantly on term premia in emerging markets in interpreting these findings we provide evidence consistent with an exchange rate channel according to which foreign central banks face a trade off between narrowing mp rate differentials or experiencing currency movements against the us dollar developed countries adjust in a manner consistent with freely floating regimes responding partially with risk neutral rates and partially through currency adjustments instead emerging countries display patterns consistent with foreign exchange interventions which cushion the response of exchange rates but reinforce capital flows and their effects in bond yields through movements in term premia our results suggest that the endogenous effects of currency interventions on long term yields should be added into the standard cost benefit analysis of such policies

inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage free model of nominal and real bond yields differences between yields on comparable maturity u s treasury nominal and real debt the so called breakeven inflation bei rates are widely used indicators of inflation expectations however better measures of inflation expectations could be obtained by subtracting inflation risk premiums from the bei rates we provide such decompositions using an estimated affine arbitrage free model of the term structure that captures the pricing of both nominal and real treasury securities our empirical results suggest that long term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past few years and inflation risk premiums although volatile have been close to zero on average

could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2 per cent we evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3 or 4 per cent could improve macroeconomic stability in the canadian economy

expectations bond yields and monetary policy through explicitly incorporating analysts forecasts as observable factors in a dynamic arbitrage free model of the yield curve this research proposes a framework for studying the impact of shifts in market sentiment on interest rates of all maturities an empirical examination reveals that survey expectations about inflation output growth and the anticipated path of monetary policy actions contain important information for explaining movements in bond yields estimates from a forward looking monetary policy rule suggest that the central bank exhibits a preemptive response to inflationary expectations while accommodating output growth and monetary policy expectations forecasted gdp growth plays a significant role in explaining time variation in the market prices of risk the sensitivity of long yields is linked to the persistence of expected inflation under the risk neutral measure models of this type may provide traders and policymakers with a new set of tools for formally assessing the reaction of bond yields to shifts in market expectations the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

the relation between firm growth and q with multiple capital goods theory and evidence from panel data on japanese firms we derive from a model of investment with multiple capital goods a one to one relation between the growth rate of the capital aggregate and the stock market based q we estimate the growth q relation using a panel of japanese manufacturing firms taking into account the endogeneity of q identification is achieved by combining the theoretical structure of the q model and an assumed serial correlation structure of the technology shock which is the error term in the growth q equation for early years of our sample cash flow has significant explanatory power over and above q the significance of cash flow disappears for more recent years for the heavy industry when japanese capital markets was liberalized the estimated q coefficient implies that the adjustment cost is less than a half of gross profits net of the adjustment cost

the effectiveness of alternative monetary policy tools in a zero lower bound environment this paper reviews alternative options for monetary policy when the shortterm interest rate is at the zero lower bound and develops new empirical estimates of the effects of the maturity structure of publicly held debt on the term structure of interest rates we use a model of risk averse arbitrageurs to develop measures of how the maturity structure of debt held by the public might affect the pricing of level slope and curvature term structure risk we find that these treasury factors historically were quite helpful for predicting both yields and excess returns over 1990 2007 the historical correlations are consistent with the claim that if in december 2006 the fed were to have sold off all its treasury holdings of less than 1 year maturity about 400 billion and use the proceeds to retire treasury debt from the long end this might have resulted in a 14 basis point drop in the 10 year rate and an 11 basis point increase in the 6 month rate we also develop a description of how the dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates changed after hitting the zero lower bound in 2009 our estimates imply that at the zero lower bound such a maturity swap would have the same effects as buying 400 billion in long term maturities outright with newly created reserves and could reduce the 10 year rate by 13 basis points without raising short term yields

the term structure of inflation expectations we use information in the term structure of survey based forecasts of inflation to estimate a factor hidden in the nominal yield curve we construct a model that accommodates forecasts over multiple horizons from multiple surveys and treasury real and nominal yields by allowing for differences between risk neutral subjective and objective probability measures we establish that model based inflation expectations are driven by inflation output and one latent factor we find that this factor affects inflation expectations at all horizons but has almost no effect on the nominal yields that is the latent factor is hidden we show that this hidden factor is not related to either current and past inflation or the standard set of macro variables studied in the literature consistent with the theoretical property of a hidden factor our model outperforms a standard macro finance model in its forecasting of inflation and yields

decomposing real and nominal yield curves abstract inflation indexed and nominal yield curves capture investors expectations of real short rates and inflation as well as their required compensation for bearing liquidity inflation and real interest rate risk we estimate an affine term structure model that allows us to decompose real and nominal bond yields into these components and use the model to study the transmission of monetary policy the model decompositions imply that the federal reserve s announcements of lsaps lowered yields primarily by reducing real term premia changes in real term premia also account for the strong response of long term real forward rates to federal funds rate surprises

the interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound abstract i analyze the recent experience of unconventional monetary policy in sweden to study the interest rate transmission mechanisms of government bond purchases when interest rates are away from the lower bound using dynamic term structure models and event study regressions i find that government bond purchases have important portfolio balance and signaling effects the signaling channel operates mainly by lowering short rate expectations in the intermediate segment of the yield curve while the portfolio balance channel is effective in lowering longer maturity term premia in addition i find that target interest rate policy and government bond purchases operate in different segments of the yield curve this suggests that a combination of the two policies can be used to lower interest rates across the whole maturity spectrum making monetary policy more expansionary

the economics of options implied inflation probability density functions recently a market in options based on cpi in ation in ation caps and oors has emerged in the us this paper uses quotes on these derivatives to construct probability densities for in ation we study how these pdfs respond to news announcements and nd that the implied odds of de ation are sensitive to certain macroeconomic news releases we compare the option implied probability densities with those obtained by time series methods and use this information to construct empirical pricing kernels the options implied densities assign considerably more mass to extreme in ation outcomes either de ation or high in ation than do their time series counterparts this yields a u shaped empirical pricing kernel with investors having high marginal utility in states of the world characterized by either de ation or high in ation

cross border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on swiss asset prices abstract unconventional monetary policies umps announced by the federal reserve the european central bank the bank of england and the bank of japan exert important spillover effects on asset prices in switzerland using a broad ump event set and a long term bond futures based measure of market anticipation we show that surprisingly expansionary umps lower swiss government and corporate bond yields induce the swiss franc to appreciate and dampen swiss equity prices four extensions provide further insights first the estimated effects are strongest for announcements by the ecb second the impact on government bonds is largest for bonds with residual maturities of 7 10 years third the impact of foreign ump shocks on exchange rates and swiss bond yields is less pronounced after the introduction of the minimum rate of 1 20 swiss franc per euro by the swiss national bank on september 6 2011 indicating that domestic monetary policy action partially affects the impact of external monetary shocks on domestic financial markets fourth the sign of spillover effects differs for positive and negative ump surprises but their strength does not

the effectiveness of the fed s quantitative easing policy new evidence based on international interest rate differentials abstract this paper explores the effects of non standard monetary policies on international yield relationships we first document that long term rates followed a common global downward trend that had already manifested itself prior to the financial crisis the bond buying operations commonly dubbed quantitative easing qe of the us federal reserve did not disturb this global co movement i e the global downward trend in interest rates we model the relationship between usd and euro riskless long term interest rates using a cointegrated vector autoregressive model cvar employing recursive estimation methods we find no evidence that qe1 or the qe episodes destabilized the transatlantic interest rate relationship nor the relationship between interest rates and the us dollar exchange rate a robustness test using a vector autoregressive model var with interest rates inflation rates and output differentials for 11 countries relative to us yielded the same result there is thus little evidence that central bank bond buying in the us had an independent distinct impact on us interest rates

nominal term structure and term premia evidence from chile abstractthe downwards trend exhibited in chile s nominal term structure since 2003 has been a common pattern shared by other developed and developing economies to understand the behaviour of the nominal yield curve in chile we rely on an affine dynamic term structure model which allows the term structure to decompose into the expected short term interest rate related to the monetary policy expectation and the term premium we show that most of the fall of long term interest rates as well as its dynamics are related to the term premium rather than the expected short term interest rate moreover we find evidence that term premium is driven primarily by the us term premium and domestic nominal uncertainty derived from expected inflation

announcements of ecb unconventional programs implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries abstract this paper studies the effects of ecb communications about unconventional monetary policy operations on the sovereign spreads of greece ireland italy portugal and spain relative to germany between 2008 and 2012 more than fifty events concerning non standard operations are identified and classified with respect to the specific ecb program the empirical results suggest that the ecb announcements about unconventional monetary policies substantially reduced long term government bond yield spreads relative to german counterparts in all countries except greece particularly among the different types of measures news about the securities markets programme strongly affected the perceived sovereign risk of the five stressed euro area countries while the announcements of the outright monetary transactions seem to have a significant impact only in italy and spain

estimating inflation risk premia using inflation linked bonds a review this paper provides an overview of studies that estimate the inflation risk premium using inflation linked bond ilb yields i categorize existing studies outline their research designs and compare their estimates for the inflation risk premium furthermore the importance of accounting for ilb illiquidity and an overview of existing ilb liquidity proxies are demonstrated a discussion of current literature developments such as the zero lower bound and an outline for future research directions conclude the paper

estimating nominal interest rate expectations overnight indexed swaps and the term structure abstract no arbitrage dynamic term structure models dtsms have regularly been used to estimate interest rate expectations and term premia but are beset by empirical challenges i propose augmenting dtsms with overnight indexed swap ois rates to better estimate the decomposition along the term structure at daily frequencies a gaussian affine dtsm augmented with 3 to 24 month ois rates generates estimates of us expectations that closely correspond to survey implied measures out to a 10 year horizon and are more stable across sub samples compared to existing models in addition i provide narrative evidence in the form of an event study around us unconventional monetary policy announcements to further exemplify the benefits from ois augmentation