implications of economic interdependence for endogenous wage indexation decisions this paper shows how economic interdependence affects the indexation decisions of atomistic wage setters in an environment in which monetary authorities do not observe stochastic disturbances before making their policy choices if stochastic disturbances are common across countries interdependence has no effect on equilibrium indexation choices in identical countries however if disturbances are country specific numerical simulations show that interdependence is likely to reduce equilibrium indexation choices relative to a small open economy we also show that indexation choices may be either strategic complements or strategic substitutes but that strategic complementarity becomes more likely as the degree of interdependence rises

misspecification bias in models of the effect of inflation uncertainty abstract in this paper we show that the appropriate measure of inflation uncertainty is relative measure specifically is the standard deviation of inflation relative to the gross expected rate of inflation empirical studies of the effects of inflation uncertainty have misspecified their models by not using the relative measure the bias introduced is equivalent to omitting a relevant variable we derive the asymptotic bias introduced by this error and estimate its magnitude for the united states and eight high inflation countries estimates of the effect of inflation uncertainty from high inflation countries and cross country studies that include them are likely to suffer from a considerable negative bias we conclude that future studies should employ this relative measure

truth trust and market transactions what do we know john humphrey and hubert schmitz have recently made an important contribution to the literature on trust and economic transactions between firms unfortunately the evidence that high levels of societal trust contribute significantly to economic growth is far less reliable than they suggest we need more research but research informed by greater conceptual clarity about trust and the institutional arrangements that contribute to trust the framework presented here for conceptualising the various sources of trust should help guide empirical research

futures markets and monetary policy abstract it has recently been argued that when differentially informed agents trade with one another monetary policy can influence the distribution of output by altering the information content of prices this paper introduces a futures market into the barro 1980 model and shows that under certain conditions prices may aggregate information in a manner such that differentially informed agents hold identical beliefs concerning aggregate market conditions in such cases monetary policy will be unable to influence the distribution of output these results then serve as a backdrop for a more general discussion of the relationship between asset prices and the role of monetary policy

un cola why have cost of living clauses disappeared from union contracts and will they return 1 introduction one of the major changes in collective bargaining in recent decades has been the gradual elimination of cost of living adjustments colas from union contracts in 1976 61 of union workers covered by major collective bargaining contracts had cola provisions but by the end of 1995 when the u s bureau of labor statistics stopped collecting data on collective bargaining settlements cola coverage had fallen to 22 1 although the decline in cola rates has been studied extensively there is no agreement as to which factors are primarily responsible for this decline one view attributes the elimination of colas or escalator clauses to declines in inflationary uncertainty a second view emphasizes the erosion of union power yet another view focuses on structural shifts in the u s economy previous research has not determined the relative importance of these and other hypotheses another reason to reassess cola determination is that the economy has changed since the early research was completed the bulk of studies to examine cola incidence statistically have relied on sample periods that end in 1982 or earlier 2 since then there have been major changes in union strength inflationary uncertainty and other potential determinants of wage indexation including deregulation of certain industries in addition more than 90 of the decline in cola rates has occurred since 1982 it is worthwhile to determine whether the factors deemed to be important in the early studies are still important we provide a comparison with previous research formally assess the contributions of various factors to the erosion of cola rates and provide insights as to likely changes in cola coverage in the future if inflation picks up and with it inflationary uncertainty 3 will cola rates rise to levels not seen since the 1970s what would be the consequences of a rebound in union power of further economic deregulation of likely industrial and demographic shifts in the economy once the major causes of past changes in cola coverage are understood it becomes possible to project the consequences of changes in key economic variables given the concern in macroeconomics with wage indexation and the linkage between wages and prices gray 1976 fischer 1986 ball and cecchetti 1991 schiller 1997 the extent to which cola coverage responds to economic factors has important implications for the economy underlying the empirical analysis is a pooled cross sectional time series model of cola incidence that accounts for industry fixed effects to estimate the model we assemble a panel data set of cola coverage and an array of characteristics for 32 private sector industries over a 22 year period because cola clauses are multiyear in nature the model also recognizes that the percentage of workers covered by cola clauses in a particular year depends on conditions in both the current year and previous years previewing results we find that the major cause of the decline in cola coverage has been the reduction in inflationary uncertainty second in importance has been the erosion of union power both the percentage of the industry s workforce that is unionized and the estimated union wage premium in the industry are highly significant determinants of cola coverage but because the union wage premium has remained largely intact in most industries changes in the premium are much less important than losses in unionization in explaining the overall decline in cola provisions economic deregulation industrial shifts and an increased presence of women in the workforce have had modest effects on cola rates on the basis of our findings a rebound in inflationary uncertainty to the levels experienced in the 1970s would raise cola coverage by 10 percentage points 2 background for workers in long term contracts colas provide at least partial protection from the consequences of unexpected inflation

policy effectiveness in an open multi market economy with risk neutral exchange rate speculation abstract in an open multi market equilibrium model of the business cycle the informational role of a forward exchange market is that the forward rate aggregates individual perceptions of the aggregate state of the economy in the case of risk neutral exchange rate speculation the forward rate perfectly reveals average expectations of current nominal shocks that hit the economy this paper analyzes the informational implications of forward speculation when markets are structurally diverse the two types of structural diversity considered are heterogeneous price elasticities of output demand and supply and asymmetric information between traders in output markets and traders in asset markets in contrast to previous results the paper shows that risk neutral speculation is not in general sufficient to generate a fully revealing rational expectations equilibrium in which monetary policy is ineffective

aggregate uncertainty capacity utilization and manufacturing investment theory suggests that the level of uncertainty affects the investment decision for firms although the sigh of the effect is ambiguous a garch m estimator is used to model the conditional variance of gdp as a proxy for uncertainty this measure is then employed in a simple model of the investment decision the results are that the level of aggregate uncertainty has a significant negative effect on manufacturing investment in particular periods there were very large effects on average uncertainty reduces investment by about 5 but in 1974 the effect peacked at 48

inflation and wage indexation in the postwar united states this paper examines the relationship between inflation and wage indexation in the postwar united states using data on the prevalence of cost of living adjustments in major collective bargaining agreements the author finds that increases in inflation precede increases in wage indexation but reductions in inflation do not precede reductions in wage indexation there is virtually no evidence that wage indexation affects inflation copyright 1995 by mit press

trade law and product complexity abstract how does the quality of national institutions that enforce the rule of law influence international trade anderson and marcouiller argue that bad institutions located in the importer s country deter international trade because they enable economic predators to steal and extort rents at the importer s border we complement this research and show how good institutions located in the exporter s country enhance international trade in particular trade in complex products whose characteristics are difficult to fully specify in a contract we argue that both exporter and importer institutions affect international as well as domestic transaction costs in complex and simple product markets international transaction costs are a part of the costs of trade domestic transaction costs affect complex and simple products differently thereby changing a country s comparative advantage in producing such goods we find ample empirical evidence for these predictions countries that have good institutions tend to

information aggregation and policy the function of monetary policy to alter the informational content of money price signals is examined in a model where traders can observe an economy wide financial signal and a local commodity price under a passive policy money demand disturbances which are not directly observable are shown to be confused with real productivity shocks and thereby preclude prices from fully reflecting all information even when the policy authority has no informational advantage prospective money growth feedback rules can improve the structure of available information applications of the rational expectations hypothesis to monetary theory have focused on the informational aspects of money price signals a key element of the models of lucas 1972 1975 barro 1976 and sargent and wallace 1975 is that agents have limited powers of information acquisition and use prices as imperfect summaries from the rest of the world those works have suggested that monetary policy can affect the informational content of observed price signals and thereby affect real variables in weiss 1980a it was shown systematic money growth feedback rules can contribute to economic efficiency when the money demands of one group are based on factors not directly observed by all in this context monetary policy can alter the information content transmitted from the informed to the uninformed through observation of nominal price signals a limitation of these analyses is the omission of economy wide financial signals clearly stock and bond prices are observed accurately and costlessly empirically there are strong comovements between financial signals and economic activity traditional keynesian theory argues that financial signals exert an important influence on output by affecting the demand for new capital goods understanding the informational role of such signals is crucial to any theory which explains fluctuations as arising from incomplete information the present analysis investigates the structure of available information with its implications for real variables in a model where agents trade on both an economy wide capital market and a local commodity market the model has positive implications for the comovements of money demand disturbances aggregate investment expected and realized returns as well as normative implications for the conduct of policy the structure of exogenous information in the model differs from that of my earlier paper rather than assuming two types of traders informed and uninformed the model considers traders to have symmetric although noisy exogenous private information in this framework the economy wide market both aggregates and transmits individuals information about an aggregate structural variable this modification is both analytically convenient and illustrates how noise in the price system alters the importance of public relative to private sources of information the idea that prices aggregate individual information was first formalized in grossman 1976 in that paper a non monetary model of a speculative market was developed in which the price system conveyed all relevant information so as to yield an efficient allocation however this feature was also shown to break down if prices are influenced by

interest rates aggregate information and monetary policy abstract interest rates set on economy wide markets represent an important source of information to economic agents within the class of business cycle models advanced by lucas and barro this paper explores the information conveyed by such aggregate signals and the types of monetary policies that can influence economic activity by changing the information content of interest rates

behind the market stage where real societies exist part i the role of public and private order institutions this two part article is an attempt to clarify the social conditions upon which the viability and efficiency of the market system rest it strives to show that the embeddedness thesis that is an explanation based upon the existence of long run personal ties involving the use of reputation mechanisms among transactors cannot fully elucidate the question as to how the problem of trust is solved in market societies as explained in part i there are difficulties of both theoretical and empirical historical kinds and these explain why the market order needs to be sustained by private and public order institutions in part ii the role of generalised morality in backing or supplementing such institutions is discussed in the light of game theory and particular emphasis is put on the ability of moral norms to sustain honest behaviour by generating the right kind of preferences and establishing trust the vexed problem of the dynamics of norm emergence and erosion is then addressed with a view to showing

uncertainty and labor contract durations this paper provides an empirical investigation into the relationship between ex ante u s labor contract durations and uncertainty over the period 1970 to 1995 we construct measures of inflation uncertainty as well as aggregate nominal and real uncertainty the results not only corroborate previous findings of an inverse relationship between contract durations and inflation uncertainty but also document that this relationship extends to both measures of aggregate uncertainty we also explore the robustness of this relationship to various measures of inflation uncertainty that have appeared in the literature

the relationship between forecast dispersion and forecast uncertainty evidence from a survey data arch model this paper examines empirically the relationship between measures of forecast dispersion and forecast uncertainty from data on inflation expectations from the livingston survey series and the survey research center src survey series because the survey series do not provide probabilistic forecasts of inflation we derive measures of inflation uncertainty by modelling the conditional variance of the inflation forecast errors from the survey series as an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic arch process the analysis is complicated by the fact that the overlap of forecast horizons for the survey series does not preclude the model s disturbance terms from displaying autocorrelation and also places a restriction on the specification for the arch measures of inflation uncertainty we estimate the model using hansen s 1982 generalized method of moments gmm procedure to account for the presence of serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity in the disturbance terms the results generally support the hypothesis that the measures of forecast dispersion across survey respondents are positively and statistically significantly associated with the measures of inflation uncertainty however the appropriateness of using forecast dispersion measures as proxies for inflation uncertainty is sensitive to the choice of the survey series

relative price variability real shocks and the stock market in this paper we investigate the effects of relative price variability on output and the stock market and gauge the extent to which inflation proxies for relative price variability in stock return inflation regressions the evidence shows that the negative stock returninflation relations proxy for the adverse effects of relative price variability on economic activity particularly during the seventies when the u s experienced oil supply shocks hence it appears that inflation spuriously affects the stock market in two ways the aggregate output link of fama 1981 and the supply shocks reflected in relative price variability a number of papers have attempted to explain the anomalous negative relations between stock returns and inflation witnessed in the post war period one hypothesis that has held up well in light of empirical evidence suggests that the negative relation between stock returns and unexpected inflation simply reflects the more fundamental positive relation between stock returns and future real variables see e g fama 1981 geske and roll 1983 and kaul 1987 1989 in this paper we investigate the effects of relative price variability on output and the stock market and gauge the extent to which inflation proxies for relative price variability in stock return inflation regressions first relative price variability can have detrimental effects on output and employment see e g friedman 1977 and barro 1976 second absolute relative price confusion models of the lucas 1973 type suggest that monetary shocks can induce a positive relation between inflation and relative price variability see e g cukierman 1983 hence the negative stock return inflation relations could simply be a reflection of the negative effects of relative price variability on the stock market we use data for the 1947 1985 period to test the various links of our hypothesis the results indicate that relative price variability is positively related to both expected and unexpected inflation measures relative price variability also has a significant negative effect on output and the stock market more importantly

forecast uncertainty ex ante and ex post u s inflation and output growth survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macro variables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be ex ante as well as their ex post performance macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more but overestimate i e are underconfident regarding the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons ex ante uncertainty remains at a high level compared to the ex post measure as the forecast horizon shortens there is little evidence of a link between individuals ex post forecast accuracy and their ex ante subjective assessments

monetary policy and the information content of prices rational expectations and cleared markets lead to the proposition that feedback monetary policy is irrelevant to real activity as in the analyses of sargent and wallace however if agents are differentially informed and have access to a common price then prospective monetary policy actions future feedback to imperfectly known current circumstances can alter real activity by changing the information content of prices

indexation and the effect of inflation uncertainty on real gnp this article examines the combined effects of inflation uncertainty and indexation on the growth rate of real gross national product gn p the evidence suggests that greater indexation partially reduces t he adverse effect of inflation uncertainty on real gnp growth over time it also indicates that in contrast to earlier findings regarding th e effect of inflation uncertainty on employment the overall effect of inflation uncertainty on real gnp growth may be permanent a preliminary assessment of whether the discrepancy is the result of in flation uncertainty permanently affecting the growth rate of the capi tal stock is inconclusive copyright 1988 by the university of chicago

the dynamics of business ethics and economic activity the authors model the agency relationship between managers and investors through socialization ethical managers develop internalized norms that prevent them from acting opportunistically unethical managers lack these norms higher ethical standards on the part of managers increase economic activity in the short run however increased economic activity increases opportunities to profit from unethical behavior eroding ethical standards over the long run when this rate of erosion is high cycling of ethics and economic activity emerges otherwise ethics and economic activity converge to a stable long run limiting value

wage indexation openness and inflation uncertainty the case of italy this article uses annual data of the italian economy to test the validity of the hypotheses of friedman 1977 and aizenman 1985 that the level of inflation uncertainty and the degree of openness of an economy have positive effects on the level of wage indexation it was found that the estimated wage indexation equation supports the validity of the aizenman hypothesis that the degree of openness of an economy has positive effects on the level of wage indexation on the other hand the regression of the wage indexation equation does not generally support the validity of the friedman hypothesis that the level of inflation uncertainty has positive effects on the level of wage indexation