public capital in the 21st century as productive as ever abstractthe global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis that followed induced a rapid deterioration in the fiscal positions of countries across the globe in the ensuing fiscal

political determinants of government loans in japan abstract this paper examines the political determinants of government banks lending decisions using prefecture level panel data on japan s government loans from 1975 to 1992 it finds that the size of government loans is positively correlated with two political factors 1 the electoral vulnerability of politicians who belong to the ruling liberal democratic party ldp and 2 their seniority these political effects are statistically robust to the inclusion of prefecture fixed effects year fixed effects and other socioeconomic factors and more important are present only in government loans and not in private loans these results suggest that self interested ldp members ab used government loans for political purposes as implied by the political view of government banks

in search of smoking guns what makes income inequality vary over time in different countries we investigate the forces affecting the distribution of income by analyzing an unbalanced panel of information for 16 industrialized countries for the years 1966 through 1994 income inequality is measured with the gini coefficient of equivalent disposable income individuals are the unit of analysis the statistical analysis uses panel methods the results suggest that many factors affect the development of income inequality some factors are strictly economic a decreased industrial sector generally fosters inequality and some support is found for the view that increased trade of manufactured goods from developing countries is also a factor other forces are outside a strictly defined market sphere low inequality is found when a large proportion of the labor force belongs to a trade union and also when there is a large public sector in addition demographic circumstances are important since the proportion of the population under age 15 has a positive effect on inequality we find however no association between the unemployment rate and inequality

did china s tax for fee reform improve farmers welfare in rural areas abstract china enacted a rural tax reform the tax for fee reform tfr in the late 1990s a crucial but unanswered question is whether this reform improved farmers welfare in rural areas this article uses village level survey data from the chinese household income project in order to examine the effect of the tfr on farmers direct and indirect welfare we find no evidence that the direct welfare effects improved farmers net income in contrast the reform appears to have reduced the villages financing capacity and hence to have lowered their overall expenditures these indirect effects have had significant negative impacts on farmers welfare

globalization and the great u turn income inequality trends in 16 oecd countries the debate on the resurgence of income inequality in some advanced industrial societies has often focused on the impact of an increasingly integrated world economy typified by growing capital mobility heightened international competition and an increase in migration this study represents one of the first systematic cross national examinations of the role of globalization in the inequality u turn results indicate on the one hand that total inequality variation is principally affected by the percentage of the labor force in agriculture followed by the institutional factors union density and decommodification and only then by globalization on the other hand longitudinal variation in inequality while still dominated by the percentage of the labor force in agriculture is also principally affected by aspects of globalization such as southern import penetration and direct investment outflow and to a lesser extent by migration in other words globalization explains the longitudinal trend of inc

common agency and coordination general theory and application to government policy making we develop a model of common agency with complete information and general preferences with nontransferable utility and we prove that the principals nash equilibrium in truthful strategies implements an efficient action we apply this theory to the construction of a positive model of public finance where organized special interests can lobby the government for consumer and producer taxes or subsidies and targeted lump sum taxes or transfers the lobbies use only the nondistorting transfers in their noncooperative equilibrium but their intergroup competition for transfers turns into a prisoners dilemma in which the government captures all the gain that is potentially available to the parties

infrastructure and development a critical appraisal of the macro level literature this survey reviews the existing macro level empirical literature on the link between infrastructure and development outcomes in a critical light after providing a general framework that casts the relevant terms of the controversy on the real effect of infrastructure on growth in the context of an aggregate production function it signals what are the relevant empirical questions to be addressed this guides the systematic review of a number of empirical studies and the discussion of the main econometric challenges to the identification of the effect of infrastructure on output and productivity finally building on related research in particular in contract theory and political economy the paper spells out several promising research avenues

the political economy of publicly provided private goods abstract this paper integrates two different approaches to the analysis of public provision of private goods education health care day care etc while normative public economics has established an efficiency case for such provision the commonly held political economy view has been that it is an economically inefficient phenomenon generated by the political process we establish a political economy framework which in general yields an efficient choice of distributional policy it follows that the central mechanism studied in the normative theory is equally relevant to voting models of decisions on public provision it is shown that under plausible information constraints economically efficient public provision of private goods will be part of politically rational decisions the result is established both within a median voter process and a representative democracy of political parties

home market vs vote market effect location equilibrium in a probabilistic voting model abstract this paper considers the location of manufacturing activities when regional policies are endogenous we find that once the political economy of regional policy is explicitly taken into account regional population size has an ambiguous effect on the level of regional subsidy even though it plays a key role in determining the equilibrium spatial allocation of industry in particular the final allocation of firms depends both on the relative economic strengths of the two regions as predicted by more orthodox economic geography models as well as by their relative political strengths

finite lifetimes and the effects of budget deficits on national saving abstract even though realistic deficit policies shift sizable tax burdens to future generations the assumption of an infinite horizon is a good approximation for analyzing a deficit s short run saving effect on individuals who are neither liquidity constrained nor myopic recent u s experience casts significant doubt on these assumptions however and appears difficult to reconcile with the ricardian equivalence proposition that the timing of taxes does not affect national saving recent deficits have coincided with reduced national saving and a substantial increase in the share of gnp devoted to consumption

political incentives and state subsidy allocation evidence from hungarian municipalities using a comprehensive database on successful and rejected applications for the european union s structural and cohesion funds between 2004 and 2012 in hungary we study which grant types are susceptible to political favoritism and how this is achieved with fixed effects and matching estimators we study whether applicants from municipalities with a mayor endorsed by the governing coalition won a higher grant value than applicants where the mayor was affiliated with the opposition we find limited evidence for such a difference for total grant value but in cases when the applicant is a public entity or the purpose of the project is construction and therefore visible to voters and thus may bring about electoral benefits we do find effects of 16 21 the decomposition of the effect suggests that favoritism plays a role both in the application and the decision making process as applicants from aligned townships apply in larger numbers and have higher acceptance rates when analyzing the effect of grants on votes we show that voters indeed reward construction and public projects but not the other grant types

institutions infrastructure and economic growth abstract this paper develops a structural model of infrastructure and output growth that takes account of institutional and economic factors that mediate in the infrastructure gdp interactions cross country estimates of the model indicate that the contribution of infrastructure services to gdp is substantial and in general exceeds the cost of provision of those services the results also shed light on the factors that shape a country s response to its infrastructure needs and offer policy implications for facilitating the removal of infrastructure inadequacies

estimating distributions of willingness to pay for heterogeneous populations random parameters logit models have emerged as a standard approach in estimating public preferences for a range of goods and services however to simplify calculation of welfare measures the marginal utility of income is often assumed to be constant across the population we show that by shifting distributional assumptions from marginal utilities to the welfare measures themselves a random parameters version of a censored logistic regression model cameron 1988 yields distributions of welfare measures more directly and without imposing any unnecessary assumption on the marginal utility of income we develop the theoretical framework for the model and apply it to contingent choice survey data for siting a noxious facility in rhode island in this application our proposed model and random parameters logit yield similar mean willingness to pay but welfare measures are more readily interpretable in the proposed model

favoritism and reverse discrimination abstract we analyze the inefficiency that may arise in the form of reverse discrimination in the presence of favoritism or nepotism favoritism is typically associated with inefficient transfers to the core support of the incumbent government but inefficiency that is opposite in nature may also arise through the electoral process in a political environment where favoritism is pervasive we show that if the policy maker is sufficiently office seeking a socially efficient action may never be taken if it yields benefits to his core support due to reputational concerns hence the core support of the incumbent may fare worse than other groups we also consider the implications of policies such as anti nepotism laws or term limits in the presence of favoritism

income inequality within and across counties in rural china 1988 and 1995 abstract using household data from samples covering 18 provinces in 1988 and 1995 income inequality within and between counties in rural china is assessed the approach enables us to aggregate average income and income inequality to the levels of provinces and the three regions comprising eastern central and western china most of income inequality in rural china in 1995 was found to be spatial and the uneven development of mean income across counties stood for most but not all of the rapid increase in income inequality mean income of the three regions diverged most forcefully

survival of the unfittest why the worst infrastructure gets built and what we can do about it the article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects second it documents a much neglected topic in economics that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and benefits for large infrastructure projects the consequences are cost overruns benefit shortfalls and the systematic underestimation of risks third implications for cost benefit analysis are described including that such analysis is not to be trusted for major infrastructure projects fourth the article uncovers the causes of this state of affairs in terms of perverse incentives that encourage promoters to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits in the business cases for their projects but the projects that are made to look best on paper are the projects that amass the highest cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in reality the article depicts this situation as survival of the unfittest fifth the article sets out to explain how the problem may be solved with a view to arriving at more efficient and more democratic projects and avoiding the scandals that often accompany major infrastructure investments finally the article identifies current trends in major infrastructure development it is argued that a rapid increase in stimulus spending combined with more investments in emerging economies combined with more spending on information technology is catapulting infrastructure investment from the frying pan into the fire

granting votes exposing the political bias of intergovernmental grants using the within between specification for panel data instead of alleviating fiscal inequalities intergovernmental grants are often used to fulfill the grantors political goals this study uses a unique panel dataset on more than 500 croatian municipalities over a 12 year period to uncover the extent to which grant distribution is biased owing to grantors electoral concerns instead of the default fixed effects approach to modelling panel data we apply a novel within between specification aimed at uncovering the contextual source of variation focusing on the effects of electoral concerns on grant allocation within and between municipalities we find evidence of a substantial political bias in grant allocations both within and between municipalities particularly when it comes to local level electoral concerns the paper offers researchers a new perspective when tackling the issue of politically biased grant allocation using panel data particularly when they wish to uncover the simultaneous impact of time variant and time invariant factors or when they cannot apply a quasi experimental approach because of specific institutional contexts

a microeconometric model of the demand for health care and health insurance in australia this paper develops a model for interdependent demand for health insurance and health care under uncertainty to throw light on the issue of insurance induced distortions in the demand for health care services the model is used to empirically analyse the determinants of the choice of health insurance type and seven types of health care services using micro level data from the 1977 78 australian health survey econometric implementation of the model involves simultaneously issues of discreteness of choice selectivity and stochastic dependence between health insurance and utilization health status appears to be more important in determining health care service use than health insurance choice while income appears to be more important in determining health insurance choice than in determining health care service use for a broad range of health care services both moral hazard and self selection are found to be important determinants of utilization of health care services

how are investments allocated in a publicly owned port system political factors versus economic criteria castillo manzano j i and fageda x how are investments allocated in a publicly owned port system political factors versus economic criteria regional studies this paper estimates the determinants of investments in port infrastructure in the spanish regions made by the central administration it is found that the use of the infrastructure in relation to capacity has some influence on the amount of investment received by a region furthermore specialization in containers is also relevant for receiving more resources however it is found that when greater political decentralization does not go hand in hand with greater financial decentralization the importance of tactical political aspects increases overall efficiency plays a more relevant role in the regional allocation of investments in ports than in other transport infrastructures

the provision of public goods under alternative electoral incentives politicians who care about the spoils of office may underprovide a public good because its benefits cannot be targeted to voters as easily as pork barrel spending we compare a winner take all system where all the spoils go to the winner to a proportional system where the spoils of office are split among candidates proportionally to their share of the vote in a winner take all system the public good is provided less often than in a proportional system when the public good is particularly desirable we then consider the electoral college system and show that it is particularly subject to this inefficiency

state infrastructure and productive performance recent research on productivity growth has focused on public infrastructure and its impact on economic growth and productivity the authors construct a model of firms technology and behavior taking advantage of the analytical framework provided in the cost function based applied production theory literature and apply it to state level data for u s manufacturing they find that infrastructure investment provides a significant return to manufacturing firms and augments productivity growth the net benefits of infrastructure investment may or may not be positive depending upon the social costs of infrastructure investment and the relative growth rates of output and infrastructure copyright 1996 by american economic association

the politics of infrastructure a number of recent studies attempt to measure the productivity of public capital some estimates indicate that government investments are a potential well spring for economic progress while others indicate that public infrastructure has a negligible effect on private sector output this article investigates political institutions and processes underlying the decisions for public infrastructure spending we apply the framework of strategic models of fiscal policy and develop an empirical model to analyze the substantial differences in public capital across american states institutions such as term limits citizen initiative and budgeting procedures were significant determinants of state public capital stocks and the flow of new public investments during the 1980s the results further suggest that political conditions such as legislative stability and voter volatility are systematically related to infrastructure differences across states

infrastructure investment a review essay economists try not to be faddists but they often cannot help themselves while work on a topic should mirror the prospective importance of the topic that situation seems to occur with disappointing frequency instead the usual pattern is that some reasonably important topic will be totally ignored for the longest time then recognized and then the subject of a flurry of work all out of proportion to its likely long run importance nowhere has this speculative bubble of economic research been more clearly illustrated than with infrastructure investment macroeconomists havelong felt that the stock of public capital is an important factor input in the production of total output macroeconomists have known that u s productivity growth slowed dramatically in about 1973 and macroeconomists should have known that united states investment in public capital has been down since the late 1960s yet analysis of the u s productivity slowdown completely ignored infrastructure investment for the first fifteen years of this slowdown concentrating instead on energy prices social regulation the composition of the work force research and development different rates of obsolescence of the private capital stock and any number of other matters the public capital stock was hardly ever even mentioned as a potential factor in the productivity slowdown aschauer changed all that he wrote a series of papers 1989a 1989b 1989c that put these two movements together econometrically infrastructure investment turned down and aggregate productivity turned down slightly later both in the united states and in some other developed countries his work hit the magic button those who had worried about the productivity puzzle for fifteen years welcomed a new suspect those who were worried about low rates of u s national saving welcomed a new way to make their argument even more forcefully than with official figures on saving and investment which do not count infrastructure investment as investment political liberals and liberal politicians saw a way to rescue government spending and projects from the assaults of reaganism and even a way to avoid oth

diverging patterns with endogenous labor migration abstract the standard neoclassical model cannot explain persistent migration flows and lack of cross country convergence when capital and labor are mobile here we present a model where both phenomena may take place assuming increasing returns and perfect capital mobility the driving forces behind labor migration are the size and the composition of the workforce the size of the workforce produces divergence a larger workforce in one country implies higher wages the wage gap induces in migration and this makes the wage gap even larger in this case migration is only beneficial for the labor importing country the evolution in the composition of the workforce due to migration may have opposite effects in one case in migration keeps the wage of skilled workers high enough to induce people to qualify for skilled jobs this improves the composition of labor in the receiving country only and it makes divergence a likely outcome in another case labor migration keeps the relative wage of unskilled workers in the rich country high enough to induce all migrants to take unskilled jobs and reduce the skilled to unskilled ratio in that country then migration is beneficial to the country which was first exporting labor

contribution to productivity or pork barrel the two faces of infrastructure investment abstract this paper proposes a simultaneous equation approach to the estimation of the contribution of transport infrastructure accumulation to regional growth we model explicitly the political economy process driving infrastructure investments in doing so we eliminate a potential source of bias in production function estimates and generate testable hypotheses on the forces that shape infrastructure policy our empirical findings on a panel of france s regions over 1985 92 suggest that electoral concerns and influence activities were indeed significant determinants of the cross regional allocation of transportation infrastructure investments by contrast we find little evidence of concern for the maximization of economic returns to infrastructure spending even after controlling for pork barrel

urban growth and transportation we estimate the effects of interstate highways on the growth of u s cities between 1983 and 2003 we find that a 10 increase in a city s initial stock of highways causes about a 1 5 increase in its employment over this 20 year period to estimate a structural model of urban growth and transportation we rely on an instrumental variables estimation that uses a 1947 plan of the interstate highway system an 1898 map of railroads and maps of the early explorations of the u s as instruments for 1983 highways we investigate the role of interstate highways in the growth of u s cities our investigation is in three parts in the first we develop a simple structural model describing the joint evolution of highways and employment in cities in the second we develop an instrumental variables strategy that allows us to identify key parameters of our structural model we are also able to provide out of sample evidence for the validity of our estimates and for the central assumptions of our model in the third we use our estimates to assess counterfactual transportation policies we find that a 10 increase in a city s stock of interstate highways causes about a 1 5 increase in its employment over 20 years and that an additional kilometre of highway allocated to a city at random is associated with a larger increase in employment or population than is a road assigned to a city by the prevailing political process our results also suggest that too many new highways were built between 1983 and 2003 these findings are important for three reasons first transportation generally and infrastruc ture in particular are large segments of the economy the median u s household devotes about 18 of its income to road transportation while all levels of government together spend another 200 billion dollars annually overall the value of capital stock associated with road transporta tion in the u s tops 5 trillion dollars united states bureau of transportation statistics 2007 2010 given the magnitude of transportation expenditures it is important that the impact of these expenditures on economic growth be carefully evaluated and not assessed on the basis of the claims of advocacy groups our analysis provides a basis for assessing whether these resources are well allocated our results also provide useful guidance to policy makers charged with planning cities since changes in a city s transportation infrastructure cause changes to the city s employment new transportation infrastructure causes complementary changes in the demand for public utilities and schools our results provide a basis for estimating the magnitude of such changes finally this research is important to furthering our understanding of how cities operate and grow transportation costs are among the most fundamental quantities in theoretical models

electoral systems and public spending we study the effects of electoral institutions on the size and composition of public expenditure in oecd and latin american countries we emphasize the distinction between purchases of goods and services which are easier to target geographically and transfers which are easier to target across social groups we present a theoretical model in which voters anticipating government policymaking under different electoral systems have an incentive to elect representatives more prone to transfer public good spending in proportional majoritarian systems the model also predicts higher total primary spending in proportional majoritarian systems when the share of transfer spending is high low after dee ning rigorous measures of proportionality to be used in the empirical investigation we e nd considerable support for our predictions

votes and regional economic growth evidence from turkey in countries where governments disproportionate power over the bureaucracy is coupled with a strong political polarization can votes for the national incumbent party buy preferential policy treatment and faster regional economic growth the article tests such question on turkey s 81 provinces over 2004 12 results uncover a link between votes and faster regional growth as well as a small influence of preferential allocations in explaining it yet after addressing potential endogeneity economic performance is almost entirely explained by standard drivers primarily human capital endowment results suggest that the impact of electorally motivated distributive politics on regions economic performance is extremely limited

the willingness to pay for the health care under taiwan s national health insurance system in this study we utilized the nested multinomial logit model to estimate the willingness to pay wtp values for different national health insurance nhi coverage plans in taiwan the wtp value for having care from clinics in a hospital care only hco plan is nt 178 us 6 per person month the wtp value for having care from hospitals in a clinic care only cco plan is nt 1342 us 43 per person month the wtp value for the nhi with a universal coverage uc is nt 1540 us 49 per person month the figure nt 1540 us 49 is equivalent to 8 77 of monthly household income much higher than the new premium rate of the new nhi tax 2 5 4 of monthly household income proposed by the taiwan s government our result suggests that taiwan s government may increase the new premium rate further in order to make taiwan s nhi financially more sustainable

public budget composition fiscal de centralization and welfare we study the optimal degree of fiscal decentralization in a dynamic federal economy where governments decide on budget size and its allocation between public education and infrastructure spending we find that full centralization of tax and expenditure policies is optimal when infrastructure productivity is similar across regions when differences are not too large partial centralization is optimal with strong differences full decentralization becomes optimal national steady state output tends to be highest under full decentralization we provide a justification for the mixed evidence regarding the oates conjecture by showing that full dominates partial decentralization despite being inferior to complete decentralization on etudie le degre optimal de decentralisation fiscale dans une economie federale dynamique ou les gouvernements decident de la taille du budget et de son allocation entre les depenses en education publique et en infrastructures on decouvre qu une pleine centralisation des taxes et des depenses est optimale quand la productivite des infrastructures est la meme dans toutes les regions quand les differences ne sont pas trop importantes une centralisation partielle est optimale en presence de fortes differences la pleine decentralisation est optimale la production nationale en regime permanent tend aetre la plus elevee quand il y a pleine decentralisation on fournit une justification pour les resultats mixtes obtenus quant a la conjoncture de oates en montrant que la pleine decentralisation est preferable a la decentralisation partielle meme si elle est inferieure a la decentralisation complete

politics and investment examining the territorial allocation of public investment in greece rodriguez pose a psycharis y and tselios v politics and investment examining the territorial allocation of public investment in greece regional studies this paper discusses how electoral politics shapes the regional allocation of public investment expenditures per capita in greece using regional public investment data for ten political periods 1975 2009 combined with electoral data by constituency a model is proposed that captures the influence of politics on the regional distribution of public investment expenditures the results of the analysis point to a strong relationship between electoral results and regional public investment spending greek governing parties have tended to reward those constituencies returning them to office moreover an increase in both the absolute and the relative electoral returns of the governing party in a region has traditionally been followed by greater public investment per capita in that region regions where the governing party whether liberal or socialist

local governance and public goods provision in rural china in developing countries identifying the most effective community level governance mode is a key issue in rural development therefore empirical evaluation of these different modes is desperately needed since the 1980s tens of thousands of villages in rural china have held local government elections providing a good opportunity to investigate the effect of democratization on the level of public goods provision using a recent village survey conducted over a significant period of time this article compares two different governance modes it finds that elections affect little on the size of revenue but significantly shift the distribution of taxation from individuals to enterprises if possible however privatization has made taxation or levies on rural enterprises more difficult it also shows that elections and power sharing are conducive to improve the allocation of public expenditures

preferential resource spending under an employment guarantee the political economy of mgnregs in andhra pradesh are ostensibly demand driven public works programs with high levels of safeguards nonetheless susceptible to political influence this conjecture is investigated using expenditure data at the local level from india s national rural employment guarantee scheme focusing on one state where accountability and transparency mechanisms have been employed and implementation efforts have been widely applauded there is no evidence of partisan influenced spending before the 2009 election however a statistically significant but small in magnitude effect after the 2009 election most variation in public works expenditures is explained by the observed needs of potential beneficiaries as the scheme intended

inter regional redistribution through infrastructure investment tactical or programmatic in this paper we study the political economy of the inter regional allocation of investment in infrastructure in an effort to disentangle tactical and programmatic motives where tactical politics refers to the discretionary allocation of investment to districts with more political clout and programmatic politics refers to the allocation of investment according to certain objective criteria e g income level we use a panel of data from the spanish electoral districts for the period 1964 2004 to estimate an equation in which investment depends both on economic and political variables the results show that tactical politics do matter since the districts receiving the most funds are those in which i the incumbent s vote margin is low ii few votes are needed to win an additional seat in the legislature iii the central and regional governments are controlled by the same party and iv regional parties play a pivotal role in the legislature however the results also show that programmatic politics matter since inter regional redistribution is shown to increase i with the arrival of democracy and european union funds ii under leftist governments and iii the weaker the correlation is between political clout and regional income

intertemporal output and employment effects of public infrastructure capital evidence from 12 oecd economies this paper utilises an intertemporal optimisation framework to study the effects of public infrastructure capital on output supply and input demands in 12 oecd countries we find that in all 12 countries i public capital has positive long run effects on both output supply and input demands ii its mean short run rates of return are fairly low while the corresponding long run rates are much higher but declining over time these findings underscore important under investment gaps in infrastructure during the 1970s and 1980s these gaps however narrowed down significantly in a few cases completely by the early 1990s

earnings and employment effects of continuous off the job training in east germany after unification the effects of continuous off the job training oft for east germans after unification are analyzed in terms of their earnings and employment probabilities using the potential outcome approach to causality as general framework different matching procedures are suggested for the estimation they allow for permanent and transitory shocks that influence oft participation and labor market outcomes the matching procedures also take account of individually different starting dates the data are taken from the german socio economic panel gsoep 1990 1994 this dataset is very informative with respect to factors influencing the participation in training the results show no positive effects of training

dynamic common agency a general model of dynamic common agency with symmetric information is considered the set of truthful markov perfect equilibrium payoffs is characterized and the efficiency properties of the equilibria are established a condition for the uniqueness of equilibrium payoffs is derived for the static and the dynamic game the payoff is unique if and only if the payoff of each principal coincides with his marginal contribution to the social value of the game the dynamic model is applied to a game of agenda setting

theory and evidence of municipal borrowing in chile although chilean municipalities are not permitted to borrow they do so through arrears and leasing contracts a formal model of municipal indebtedness is estimated based on a sample of 345 municipalities with yearly data from 2004 to 2007 variables that are positively and significantly related to borrowing through arrears are mayors closely tied to the ruling central government coalition politically diverse municipal councils years close to elections and deeper municipal involvement in education while leasing contracts appear to be insensitive to political factors they are positively and significantly related to municipal staff managerial skills and municipal revenues per capita

selection on observed and unobserved variables assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools in this paper we measure the effect of catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores because we do not have a good instrumental variable for catholic school attendance we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to the amount of selection on the unobservables we also propose an informal way to assess selectivity bias based on measuring the ratio of selection on unobservables to selection on observables that would be required if one is to attribute the entire effect of catholic school attendance to selection bias we use our methods to estimate the effect of attending a catholic high school on a variety of outcomes our main conclusion is that catholic high schools substantially increase the probability of graduating from high school and more tentatively attending college we find little evidence of an effect on test scores

financing urban infrastructure knowns unknowns and a way forward improved urban infrastructure is widely believed to be essential in facilitating economic growth and in improving the lives of urban dwellers both in developed and in developing countries this paper focuses on several dimensions of urban infrastructure finance finance for major infrastructure improvements in major economic centers finance for expansion of basic municipal services in secondary cities and towns and intergovernmental systems for financing investments with impacts beyond jurisdictional limits it reviews what is known about current practices in these areas using international evidence and case studies and summarizing international best practices it also indicates areas in which knowledge gaps remain despite these unknowns there are avenues by which our understanding of infrastructure schemes can be enhanced and some suggestions for a research agenda on financing urban infrastructure are offered in the concluding section

an evaluation of the swedish system of active labour market programmes in the 1990s we investigate the presence of short and long term effects from joining a swedish labor market program vis a vis more intense job search in open unemployment overall the impact of the program system is found to have been mixed joining a program has increased employment rates among participants a result robust to a misclassification problem in the data on the other hand it has also allowed participants to remain significantly longer on unemployment benefits and more generally in the unemployment system this being particularly the case for those entitled individuals entering a program around the time of their unemployment benefits exhaustion

the political economy of government responsiveness theory and evidence from india the determinants of government responsiveness to its citizens is a key issue in political economy here we develop a model based on the solution of political agency problems having a more informed an politically active electorate strengthens incentives for governments to be responsive this suggests that there is a role both for democratic institutions and the mass media in ensuring that the preferences of citizens are reflected in policy the ideas behind the model are tested on panel data from india we show that public food distribution and calamity relief expenditure are greater controlling for shocks where governments face greater electoral accountability and where newspaper circulation is highest

non price rationing and the choice of medical care providers in rural cote d ivoire this paper investigates the role of travel time in rationing medical care services in a developing country where monetary prices are zero a nested multinomial logit model of provider choice is estimated using 1985 data from rural cote d ivoire unlike previous studies of health care demand in developing countries our results indicate that travel time plays an important role in rationing health care and that medical care demand for poorer individuals is substantially more travel time elastic than for richer individuals

the equilibrium approach to fiscal policy this paper lays out a simple model for the purpose of bringing together the various strands of the analysis of fiscal policy in an optimizing competitive equilibrium model the discussion centers on the critic al assumptions lying behind the ricardian equivalence proposition th e role of the time profile and composition of public expenditure and the timing of distortional taxation copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

bringing home the bacon an empirical analysis of the extent and effects of pork barreling in australian politics which electorates receive targeted funding and does targeted funding swing votes to answer these questions i analyze four discretionary programs funded by the australian federal government during the 2001 2004 election cycle controlling for relevant demographic characteristics of the electorate those electorates held by the governing coalition received a larger share of discretionary funding and a larger number of program grants among government seats funding does not appear to have been directed towards those that were more marginal more discretionary funding particularly on road building was associated with a larger swing towards the government in the 2004 election

income inequality development and dependence a reconsideration we reconsider the role of foreign investment in income inequality in light of recent critiques that question the results of quantitative cross national research on foreign capital penetration we analyze an unbalanced cross national data set in which countries contribute different numbers of observations with a maximum of 88 countries and 488 observations dated from 1967 to 1994 random effects regression models that control for unmeasured country heterogeneity are used to investigate effects of foreign capital penetration on inequality measured as the gini coefficient against the background of an internal developmental model of inequality we adapt firebaugh s 1992 1996 critique of the literature on the effect of foreign investment on economic growth to the study of income inequality and find that the stock of foreign direct investment has an effect on inequality that is independent of the mechanisms identified by firebaugh we explore tsai s 1995 claim that the effect of foreign capital penetration is spurious and find that foreign stock has a significant positive effect on inequality net of region specific differences an alternative interpretation of the findings of the foreign investment inequality literature is discussed in light of the discovery of an inverted u shaped relationship between income inequality and foreign investment stock per capita we conclude that thinking on the relationship between income inequality and investment dependence should be revised in light of an investment development path relating the inflow and outflow of foreign capital to economic development

public sector capital and the productivity puzzle a number of studies have suggested a quantitatively important relationship between public sector capital accumulation and private sector productivity with the most compelling evidence derived from analyses of state level data estimates herein of production functions that use standard techniques to control for unobserved state specific characteristics however reveal essentially no role for public sector capital in affecting private sector productivity only estimates of state production functions that do not include such controls find substantial productivity impacts this result reconciles existing econometric estimates with the findings of hulten and schwab based on growth accounting techniques as such techniques effectively control for state specific effects region level estimates are essentially identical to those from state data suggesting no quantitatively important spillover effects across states copyright 1994 by mit press

rural reforms and agricultural growth in china this paper employs province level panel data to assess the contributions of decollectivization price adjustments and other reforms to china s agricultural growth in the reform period decollectivization is found to improve total factor productivity and to account for about half of the output growth during 1978 84 the adjustment in state procurement prices also contributed positively to output growth its impact came mainly from the responses in input use the effect of other market related reforms on productivity and output growth was very small reasons for slowdown in agricultural growth after 1984 are also analyzed copyright 1992 by american economic association

distributive politics and regional development assessing the territorial distribution of turkey s public investment turkey is often perceived as a country with low bureaucratic capacity and prone to political manipulation and pork barrel this article tests whether this is the case by analysing the extent to which politics rather than equity and efficiency criteria have determined the geographical allocation of public investment across the 81 provinces of turkey between 2005 and 2012 the results show that although the turkish government has indeed channelled public expenditures to reward its core constituencies socioeconomic factors remained the most relevant predictors of investment moreover in contrast to official regional development policy principles we uncover the concentration of public investment in areas with comparatively higher levels of development we interpret this as the state bureaucracy s intentional strategy of focussing on efficiency by concentrating resources on the better off among the most in need

growth and imperfect competition on factor markets increasing returns and distribution abstract although seldom modeled outside the monopolistic competition framework market incompleteness and imperfect competition are central to the new growth theories we propose here a strategic model of imperfect competition with endogenous growth and endogenous market structure where we focus on labor market issues for growth to be possible we assume increasing returns at the firm level due to heterogeneity on the labor market the market structure is not degenerate then because of increasing returns short run efficiency is maximized under monopoly and free entry implies too many firms in the market however in the long run competition can generate growth through a distribution effect whereas a monopoly leads to a zero growth steady state thus there is a trade off between static and dynamic efficiency this trade off implies the existence of a growth maximizing degree of competition in our economy

book reviewinequality poverty and history jeffrey g williamson basil blackwell cambridge ma 1991 isbn 1 55786 118 8 pp vii 151 19 50

is public expenditure productive abstract this paper considers the relationship between aggregate productivity and stock and flow government spending variables the empirical results indicate that i the nonmilitary public capital stock is dramatically more important in determining productivity than is either the flow of nonmilitary or military spending ii military capital bears little relation to productivity and iii a core infrastructure of streets highways airports mass transit sewers water systems etc has most explanatory power for productivity the paper also suggests an important role for the net public capital stock in the productivity slowdown of the last fifteen years

distributive politics in china regional favouritism and expansion of construction land land conversion control in china remains in the shadow of the planned economy highly hierarchical governments fully control both land quotas and land approval which are indispensable for each add

heterogeneous impact of the seguro popular program on the utilization of obstetrical services in mexico 2001 2006 a multinomial probit model with a discrete endogenous variable objective we evaluated the impact of seguro popular sp a program introduced in 2001 in mexico primarily to finance health care for the poor we focused on the effect of household enrollment in sp on pregnant women s access to obstetrical services an important outcome measure of both maternal and infant health

sources of inefficiency in a representative democracy a dynamic analysis this paper studies the efficiency of policy choice in representative democracies it extends the citizen candidate model of democratic policy making to a dynamic environment equilibrium policy choices are shown to be efficient in the sense that in each period conditional on future policies being selected through the democratic process there exists no alternative current policy choices which can raise the expected utilities of all citizens however policies that would be declared efficient by standard economic criteria are not necessarily adopted in political equilibrium the paper argues that these divergencies are legitimately viewed as politicalfailures

neoliberalism and income distribution in latin america abstract this paper reviews the principal neoliberal policy measures instituted in latin america in the last decade and their impact on equity it first emphasizes the difficulty of separating the impact of liberalization measure from the necessary fiscal adjustments of the 1980s and their transitional vs longrun effects and then places the observed movements in distribution in global and historical context the second part places several innovations of neoliberal regimes in historical perspective and argues that their overall impact is unlikely to be regressive and that previous regimes were probably not especially progressive over the long run developments in factor markets the demand side driven by reoriented industrial growth and the increasing importance of the service sector interacting with the relative supplies of skilled and unskilled labor are likely to be of overriding importance in determining the evolution of the distribution of income

the determinants of temporary rural to urban migration in china this paper evaluates the impact of various explanatory factors on temporary rural to urban migration in china using a series of probit models of the migration decision the empirical basis of this work is a sample of 11 924 individuals age 16 35 years drawn from the 1995 data of the chinese household income project chip we find that the profiles for migration age and migration education are both quadratic with the least educated and most educated members of rural society being less likely to migrate in addition the marginal effect of education tends to be higher for men than for women an increase in farming income reduces the probability of migration while the amount of land controlled by a household does not have a significant effect on migration in most provinces

the road to power partisan loyalty and the centralized provision of local infrastructure this paper sets out a simple dynamic probabilistic voting model in which a government allocates a fixed budget across electoral districts that differ in their loyalties to the ruling party the model predicts that the geographic pattern of spending depends on the way the government balances long run machine politics considerations and the more immediate concern to win over swing voters empirical results obtained from a panel of electoral districts in quebec provide robust evidence that districts which display loyalty to the incumbent government receive disproportionately more spending especially close to an election at odds with the standard swing voter view

income inequality democracy and public sector size this study synthesizes and tests explanations of how public sector size and democracy affect income inequality the results based on unbalanced panel data for 64 developing and developed countries

a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence this paper presents a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence political equilibrium depends on the efficiency of each group in producing pressure the effect of additional pressure on their influence the number of persons in different groups and the deadweight cost of taxes and subsidies an increase in deadweight costs discourages pressure by subsidized groups and encourages pressure by taxpayers this analysis unifies the view that governments correct market failures with the view that they favor the politically powerful both are produced by the competition for political favors

developing by borrowing inter jurisdictional competition land finance and local debt accumulation in china although the investment oriented development model for economic growth adopted by chinese governments has generated spectacular results the risks of debt financed urbanisation and economic development have recently become evident in mounting local debts that are undermining the financial system triggering concerns with respect to local governments indebtedness financial stability and sovereign risk in china in this paper we portray the uneven spatial and temporal dynamics of local government debt in china and examine the ways in which it is intertwined with institutional political and economic factors our analysis shows that while global and national economic conditions have resulted in a dramatic increase in local government debt particularly in the late 2000s and the early 2010s the spatial variation of local debt accumulation in china could be partly explained by two institutional factors land finance and inter jurisdictional competition we argue that the behaviour of local governments may

evaluating the impact of tax for fee reform fei gai shui on water resources and agriculture production in the zhanghe irrigation system china this article questions the effectiveness and viability of rural tax for fee reform fei gai shui on water resources and agriculture production taking the zhanghe irrigation system of china as a case study example the fei gai shui reform has been heralded as a possible solution for reducing the excessive fiscal burden on peasants while the reform may achieve in relieving peasant burdens significantly the initial impact of fei gai shui on water resources and agricultural production indicate least satisfactory trends the policy shows significant impact on rice yield and area it might also have profound impact on cropping pattern but it has yet to be seen dependence on local water resources such as ponds show significant increase after fei gai shui as it discouraged farmers to rely on regional water sources although the lower regional water use under fei gai shui reduced the water charges paid by farmers the savings were mostly offset by increasing pumping costs in accessing water from local ponds without any adjustments the fei gai shui is likely to cause serious predicament in agricultural sector it is visioned that local water resources such as water ponds will continue to play an important role in sustaining agricultural production

the kuznets curve and the great u turn income inequality in u s counties 1970 to 1990 the authors examine the determinants of inequality in the distribution of family income in approximately 3 100 counties of the united states in 1970 1980 and 1990 such a study provides a window on global trends in social inequality during the period which spans the tail end of the kuznets curve and the more recent upswing in income inequality results from random effects regression models that control for unmeasured heterogeneity among states reveal the continued importance of the kuznetsian pattern of declining inequality with economic development a positive effect of urbanization on inequality a declining positive impact of sector dualism an increasing positive effect of educational heterogeneity and a persistent effect of racial dualism several variables associated with the recent upswing in inequality have significant effects female labor force participation negative female headed households positive percent of the population over age 65 changes from positive to negative over the period manufacturing employment negative and unemployment ambiguous they also discuss methods of estimating the gini coefficient for income inequality at the county level and measures of sector farm nonfarm dualism racial black white dualism and educational heterogeneity

the making of economic policy a transaction cost politics perspective economic policymaking as a political process the normative approach to policy analysis the positive view of political economy a synthesis the policy process in real time a theme transaction costs the transaction cost politics framework political outcomes and economic efficiency transaction cost analysis in politics mechanisms to cope with transaction costs in politics national differences two case studies to illustrate transaction cost politics tax and expenditure reform in the united states the gatt and national trade politics some reflections and suggestions some lessons for the policy process the role of the economist concluding comments appendix multiprincipal multitask agencies

local government borrowing and repayment in indonesia does fiscal capacity matter abstract most regional government borrowing in indonesia has been conducted via central government mechanisms while the terms and conditions of central lending have been highly favorable to regional borrowers repayment of debt has been very poor the empirical evidence suggests that local governments have borrowed well within their fiscal capacities to repay and that repayment problems are largely a function of unwillingness to repay debts and of central government acquiescence regional borrowing must significantly increase in the years ahead in order to meet growing demand for infrastructure services and lending to regions will have to become more market based reducing systemic credit risk and improving the creditworthiness of regional borrowers are prerequisites to increased and sustained market based lending

the politics of infrastructure investment the role of product market competition abstract in spatial competition public infrastructure plays a crucial role in determining product market outcomes in our model consideration of infrastructure s impact on the product market drives the preferences of consumers in their dual role as voter taxpayers the spatial heterogeneity of consumers produces conflicting political interests and in many cases inefficient outcomes however across both exogenous and endogenous market environments product market competition consistently leads to higher levels of publicly funded infrastructure than monopoly collusion furthermore competition s boost to the popular support for infrastructure investment is often excessive while monopoly leads to underinvestment

the choice of medical providers in rural benin a comparison of discrete choice models in this paper we estimate three different discrete choice models of provider choice using data from the rural district of ouidah in benin these three model are multinomial logit ml 2 independent multinomial probit imp 3 multinomial probit mp a comparison of imp and mp allows us to reject the independence assumption between providers furthermore the cross price elasticities computed from the restrictive specifications ml and imp are dramatically different from those computed from the more general one mp these results cast some doubt on the validity of the previous findings and policy recommendations that are typically based on the ml specification

distributive politics and spatial equity the allocation of public investment in chile abstractdistributive politics and spatial equity the allocation of public investment in chile regional studies this paper analyzes the influence of electoral concerns on investment distribution from the central government to chilean municipalities drawing upon panel data it shows that investment is mediated by pork barrel and political budget cycles as well as favouring the relatively better off areas estimations also reveal that resources are channelled to the municipalities where the vote margin in local elections is larger whereas national results are not relevant indicating that local governments lobbying capacity is prioritized over national electoral interests based on these results the implications for regional governance and for reducing the margin of arbitrary allocations are discussed

public infrastructure and regional economic development a simultaneous equations approach an analysis of how central bank exchange market intervention can affect both the level of exchange rates and the risk premium in asset returns showing how the risk premium is related to the conditional variances of intervention and other exogenous processes

quality of medical care and choice of medical treatment in kenya an empirical analysis underutilization of medical facilities in african countries is widely believed to be a result of consumer disappointments with quality of care this paper uses data from a randomized household survey enriched with exogenous information on health facility attributes to examine more deeply the quality factor in health care demand in rural kenya we find that broad availability of drugs in a medical facility is positively related to medical care use contrary to intuitive expectations lack of prescription drugs is also positively related to medical care demand while lack of aspirin reduces demand we explain this counter intuitive result by noting that any measure of availability of a consumable input is evidence of both demand and supply demand may be positively correlated with lack of drugs for example precisely because there is excess demand for available supplies the results indicate the importance of selecting truly exogenous indicators of service quality for demand analysis we also find that health care demand decreases with user fees and with greater distance to the provider but increases with income gender is not a significant determinant of the choice of medical care in this dataset whether considered separately or interacted with service variables

what have we learned from three decades of research on the productivity of public capital the last three decades have witnessed a great deal of research effort devoted to measuring the private output elasticity of public capital the wide range of available estimates have precluded any consensus so far however this paper reconciles the empirical findings of the literature by quantitatively analyzing a sample of 578 estimates collected from 68 studies for the 1983 2008 period using meta regression analysis we show how study design characteristics and publication bias can explain a large fraction of the variation across estimates we find a short run output elasticity of public capital supplied at the central government level of 0 083 which increases to 0 122 in the long run if in addition only core infrastructure at a regional local level of government is considered these estimates are almost doubled the average output elasticity of public capital amounts to 0 106 our results suggest that public capital is undersupplied in oecd economies

public infrastructure investments productivity and welfare in fixed geographic areas abstract measures of the value of public investments are critical inputs into the policy process and aggregate production and cost functions have become the dominant methods of evaluating these benefits this paper examines the limitations of these approaches in light of applied production and spatial equilibrium theories a spatial equilibrium model of an economy with nontraded localized public goods like infrastructure is proposed and a method for identifying the role of public capital in firm production and household preferences is derived empirical evidence from a sample of large us cities suggests that public capital provides significant marginal benefits but the marginal productivity of public capital is low and aggregate city willingness to pay for large increases in public capital is less than their cost the paper concludes with a brief discussion of the political economy of urban infrastructure investment