assessing the effects of tariff reform on u s food manufacturing industries the role of imperfect competition and intermediate inputs recent work indicates that the joint effects of intermediate input and final output tariff reforms on equilibrium in the differentiated final products sector are analytically ambiguous this issue is addressed empirically for disaggregate imperfectly competitive u s food manufacturing industries the input tariff effect dominates in most industries leading to increases in the number of u s firms and total industry output as a result of tariff reform this provides evidence that the existing u s tariff profile discriminates against domestic food manufacturers as input tariff effects outweigh the protection offered by output tariffs this conclusion is robust to changes in the degree of interfirm rivalry monopolistic competition or cournot oligopoly

a computational scheme for the optimal strategy in an incomplete market abstract we examine the optimal portfolio selection problem of a single agent who receives an unhedgeable endowment the agent wishes to optimize his her log utility derived from his her terminal wealth we do not solve this problem analytically but construct a recursive computational algorithm which approximates the optimal one we present an intelligent initial portfolio which requires numerically about 25 fewer corrective steps in the algorithm than a random initial portfolio and outperforms the portfolio which ignores the unhedgeable risk of the endowment

medium term power planning with bilateral contracts this paper addresses the optimal management of hydropower resources on medium term the objective is to maximize the expected revenue of a producer and the decision variables are generation and forward contracts in each period for each scenario stochastic linear and nonlinear programming has been used as a framework for modeling and solution results are exposited for a norwegian power producer participating in nord pool the nordic power exchange

a new theoretical analysis of deindustrialisation the analysis of deindustrialisation has been led by heterodox economists especially those in the structuralist and kaldorian traditions based on a conception of sectoral specificity and the role of manufacturing in growth sectors are not the units of marxian economic analysis but thinking through the meaning of sectors in marxian terms allows for an analysis of the meaning and implications of a change in sectoral structure deindustrialisation is the sectoral shift that has been most prominent in recent decades and which is likely to have significant implications for the future of capitalism this article develops an original marxian theorisation of deindustrialisation this conceptualisation includes a distinction between two forms of deindustrialisation as well as taking into account changes in sectoral structure the proposed typology considers whether such changes are associated with a shift between those activities that produce surplus value and those that do not or only a shift in the composition of surplus value producing activities the distinction between different forms of deindustrialisation allows for an arguably richer analysis of this phenomenon than in more narrowly sector based approaches

kaldor s growth analysis revisited kaldor s laws on manufacturing as the engine of growth have been tested using cross country data mainly from developing countries for the period 1960 1994 instrumental variable techniques were used to explore problems associated with simultaneity and spuriousness it has been found that manufacturing output growth rate is exogenous as kaldor envisaged and his laws are applicable to most of the developing world

blessing or curse impacts of the brazilian pre salt oil exploration abstract the discoveries of oil and gas in the so called pre salt layer have triggered a lot of discussions about their economic effect in this paper we discuss in detail a less discussed dimension the impact of pre salt layer in the structure of the brazilian economy especially the composition of the industry and exports similar consequences in the country of dutch disease and deindustrialization due to revenues from oil exports are evaluated the methodology used is a dynamic global general equilibrium model with specific features for the treatment of the issues raised

pro competitive effects of trade reform results from a cge model of cameroon abstract how likely is trade liberalization to produce efficiency gains in the presence of imperfect competition scale economies and higher than average wages in the modern sectors all common features in developing economies these features create a potential conflict to the extent that traditional notions of comparative advantage lead us to expect that the modern sectors will be squeezed with liberalization in this paper we investigate this issue by using an applied general equilibrium model calibrated to cameroonian data under perfect competition we find that the welfare effect is a wash since the beneficial consequence of expanded imports is offset by the reduction in employment in the modern high wage sectors under imperfect competition by contrast trade liberalization produces welfare gains of the order of 1 to 2 percent of income the key is the pro competitive effect of liberalization domestic firms in the modern sectors now perceive themselves as facing a higher elasticity of demand which spurs them to increase production

characterising deindustrialisation an analysis of changes in manufacturing employment and output internationally deindustrialisation is typically conceptualised as a decline in manufacturing as a share of total employment from a kaldorian perspective deindustrialisation could have negative implications for long run growth given the special growth pulling properties of manufacturing however defining deindustrialisation purely in terms of employment share is conceptually limiting given that some of the kaldorian processes operate primarily through output rather than employment as well as blunting empirical analysis by not focussing enough on changes in manufacturing share of gross domestic product gdp this study develops a new method using decomposition techniques to analyse changes in manufacturing employment levels and shares in 48 countries over periods of deindustrialisation the analysis separates out changes in the levels and shares of employment manufacturing into components associated with changes in the share of manufacturing in gdp the growth of manufacturing value added the labour intensity of manufacturing production and economic growth the results indicate that in most cases the decline in manufacturing employment is associated primarily with falling labour intensity of manufacturing rather than an overall decline in the size or share of the manufacturing sector we suggest that deindustrialisation should appropriately be defined in terms of a sustained decline in both the share of manufacturing in total employment and the share of manufacturing in gdp copyright the author 2008 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

does trade liberalization promote regional disparities evidence from a multiregional cge model of india summary over last few decades there has been a growing interest among researchers in understanding the link between trade liberalization and regional disparities within the context of an individual country in this study we develop the first ever single country multiregional computable general equilibrium cge model for the indian economy to investigate this linkage overall our results suggest that in the short run trade liberalization has a beneficial impact on the rich and fast growing middle income states and a marginal or negative impact on the poor states

kaldor s laws and spatial dependence evidence for the european regions pons novell j and viladecans marsal e 1999 kaldor s laws and spatial dependence evidence for the european regions reg studies 33 443 451 in this paper we provide an outline of kaldor s growth model and test its relevance to the economic experience of european regions during the period 1984 92 kaldor s first law asserts that manufacturing is the engine of economic growth his second proposition also known as verdoorn s law states that there is a strong positive relation between manufacturing productivity growth and manufacturing output growth kaldor s third law holds that overall productivity growth is positively related to manufacturing output growth and negatively related to employment in non manufacturing sectors the empirical results corrected for the presence of spatial autocorrelation indicate that kaldor s second and third laws are compatible with the economic growth of european regions during the period 1984 92 pons novell j et viladecans marsal e 1999 les lois de kaldor et la

imports as competitive discipline the role of the productivity gap abstract this paper addresses the impact of foreign competition on the competitive advantage of domestic firms and the role of trade policy in an endogenous growth framework it shows that the impact of foreign competition on r d and productivity depends on the industry s relative position trade liberalization promotes innovation and enhances welfare in mature industries but hinders growth and leads to market exit in infant industries with a large productivity gap in the latter case temporary protection promotes the survival of the firm and increases welfare at the margin hence we integrate the old argument for the temporary protection of infant industries with the notion that foreign competition fosters innovation and productivity

macroeconomics financial variables and computable general equilibrium models abstract this paper surveys micro macro computable general equilibrium cge models that incorporate asset markets and product and factor markets recent models are designed to analyze the impact on economic performance and the distribution of income in developing economies of structural adjustment and stabilization programs implemented in response to macro shocks these financial cge models add a loanable funds market incorporating a variety of assets to a cge model that already incorporates flow equilibria in product and factor markets these financial models start from tradefocused cge models and also draw on earlier work with micro and macrostructuralist models in specifying the interactions between financial variables and the real side of the economy the paper also compares these models to dynamic macro models both short run adaptive models with lagged adjustment mechanisms and longer run forward looking models the paper discusses the theoretical problems such models face in reconciling micro focused cge models with macro models incorporating dynamic behavior

premature de industrialisation theory evidence and policy recommendations in the mexican case the main consequences of premature de industrialisation are a slowdown in the rate of economic growth and the deferral of economic development despite having adopted a successful export led growth strategy since the early 1980s these two phenomena have characterised the mexican economy during the past three decades in this article i investigate whether premature de industrialisation has been a major contributor to mexico s economic stagnation and attempt to identify which factors have been driving it the results confirm the hypothesis of premature de industrialisation and suggest that the evolution of income capital accumulation labour manufacturing productivity trade openness and the exchange rate provide an explanation for this process i also suggest a set of alternative policy measures aimed at returning the mexican economy to the path of growth and development

trade liberalisation in developing economies modest benefits but problems with productivity growth macro prices and income distribution microeconomically the case for liberalisation is dubious under increasing returns to scale and when firms can invest directly in productivity enhancement distributional effects of commercial policy changes can be regressive and large but the rents they generate can serve as a basis for effective policy intervention contingent on firms performance macroeconomically the case of liberalisation rests on say s law which is not always enforced recent combined current and capital market liberalisations have been associated with strong exchange rates and high interest rates and output and productivity growth have positive mutual feedbacks which liberalisation may well suppress

productivity and growth verdoorn s law revisited abstract this paper presents causality tests on manufacturing output and labour productivity to examine the so called verdoorn law the conclusion is that a modified granger test supports verdoorn s law

how significant is intersectoral outsourcing of employment in south africa south africa like many other middle income countries as well as most upper income countries has seen an increase in services and fall in manufacturing as shares of total employment there has been speculation about the extent to which these changes actually represent a genuine structural shift as opposed to a statistical artifact deriving from the domestic outsourcing of activities from manufacturing to services very limited evidence is available as to how much of the apparent changes in the sectoral composition of employment are explained by intersectoral outsourcing this article develops a methodology using household and labor survey data to analyze the extent of intersectoral outsourcing of specific labor intensive activities in south africa from 1997 2007 it is shown that the relatively high growth in services employment is driven by expansion of employment of cleaners and security guards and in particular by outsourcing type reallocation of these activities from manufacturing and the public sector toward private services once outsourcing is accounted for employment seems to have grown at similar rates in manufacturing and in private services the analysis has implications for understanding changes in the sectoral structure of middle income economies and whether services employment is as dynamic as it appears to be copyright 2010 the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

the dutch disease in a developing country oil reserves in cameroon abstract noting that most of the literature on the dutch disease refers to developed countries this paper looks at the impact of an oil boom on a developing country when certain features of developing countries particularly the imperfect substitutability between domestic and imported goods are incorporated one of the standard dutch disease results can be reversed not all the traded goods sectors will contract a simulation with a computable general equilibrium model of cameroon reveals that the agricultural sector is most likely to be hurt whereas some of the manufacturing sectors will benefit this suggests possible areas for government intervention should it be warranted and may explain the differential performance between the agricultural and industrial sectors of oil exporting countries in the post 1973 period

an application of a kaldorian export led model of growth to the united states a kaldorian export led model of growth is analysed using post second world war united states data the structural parameter restrictions of the model are confirmed by the estimates kaldor s model which was originally conceived to be illuminating for describing a region or a small open economy is able to describe the annual fluctuations in the growth rate of a large open economy like that of the united states with only minor adjustments

wage subsidy and labor market flexibility in south africa in this paper the authors use a highly disaggregate general equilibrium model to analyze the feasibility of a wage subsidy to unskilled workers in south africa isolating and estimating its potential employment effects and fiscal cost they capture the structural characteristics of the labor market with several labor categories and substitution possibilities linking the economy wide results on relative prices wages and employment to a micro simulation model with occupational choice probabilities in order to investigate the poverty and distributional consequences of the policy the impact of a wage subsidy on employment poverty and inequality in south africa depends greatly on the elasticities of substitution of factors of production being very minimal if unskilled and skilled labor are complements in production the desired results are attainable only if there is sufficient flexibility in the labor market although the impact in a low case scenario can be improved by supporting policies that relax the skill constraint and increase the production capacity of the economy especially towards labor intensive sectors the gains from a wage subsidy are still modest if the labor market remains very rigid

trade liberalization and unemployment theory and evidence from india abstract a widely held view among the public is that trade liberalization increases unemployment using state and industry level unemployment and trade protection data from india we find no evidence of any unemployment increasing effect of trade reforms in fact our state level analysis reveals that urban unemployment declines with trade liberalization in states with flexible labor markets and larger employment shares in net exporter industries moreover our industry level analysis indicates that workers in industries experiencing greater reductions in trade protection were less likely to become unemployed especially in net export industries our results can be explained within a theoretical framework incorporating trade and search generated unemployment and some institutional features of the indian economy

optimality with hydropower system this paper studies an electricity producer s long term optimality in the case of a multireservoir hydropower system the model solves the optimal production process and trading strategy of electricity and weather derivatives by maximizing the utility from production and terminal water reservoir level the optimal trading strategy hedges the rainfall and electricity price uncertainties

manufacturing and economic growth in the united states kaldor s growth laws are applied to the post world war ii united states each variable employed in the time series analysis is smoothed with a moving average this procedure successfully mitigates the effects of short term cyclical changes and emphasizes long term economic growth indicate that kaldor s laws are compatible with the economic growth of united states

optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process abstract we consider a consumption portfolio problem in continuous time under uncertainty a martingale technique is employed to characterize optimal consumption portfolio policies when there exist nonnegativity constraints on consumption and on final wealth we also provide a way to compute and verify optimal policies our verification theorem for optimal policies involves a linear partial differential equation unlike the nonlinear partial differential equation of dynamic programming the relationship between our approach and dynamic programming is discussed we demonstrate our technique by explicitly computing optimal policies in a series of examples in particular we solve the optimal consumption portfolio problem for hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility functions when the asset prices follow a geometric brownian motion the optimal policies in this case are no longer linear when nonnegativity constraints on consumption and on final wealth are included by these examples one can see that our approach is much easier than the dynamic programming approach

trade liberalisation with imperfect competition abstract this paper presents a computable general equilibrium world trade model with imperfectly competitive industries in all countries which can be used to evaluate trade liberalisation proposals we find that the welfare gains from worldwide trade liberalisation can be as much as twice those obtained from models with constant returns to scale and perfect competition for some large countries however trade liberalisation under imperfect competition can lead to smaller welfare gains or even welfare losses as in the case of the united states

mexican agricultural trade under the gatt expected effects from partially lifting tariff barriers on the mexican agricultural sector are investigated using a restricted profit function rpf approach short run and intermediate run effects of the implementation of gatt minimum tariff provisions on mexican agricultural trade are examined specification tests reveal the appropriateness of the rpf approach that exports should not be aggregated with non traded production into a single output and that the farm sector behaves as an almost price taking profit maximizing firm policy simulations suggest important short run changes in agricultural trade and chemical use and intermediate run changes in agricultural trade labour wage chemical use capital investments and net farm income

economic growth and kaldor s law the case of turkey 1925 78 in this paper kaldor s enine of growth hypothesis is examined and its validity is tested forr the turkish economy the results obtained regardless of the specification and estimation techniques used consistently support the hypothesis

growth and productivity a model of cumulative growth and catching up individually neither the cumulative growth approach of the post keynesian tradition nor the catching up theory of neoclassical derivation are able to account for the chief stylized facts of comparative economic growth a pooled cross section econometric model that integrates these two approaches is developed and tested by the authors over the period 1950 88 for a group of nine oecd countries for a group of nine latin american countries and for a group of seven east asian countries purchasing power parities for 1985 are employed to measure productivity levels the growth record of the oecd countries is satisfactorily assessed by the model the catching up effect is found to be relevant in explaining productivity growth in the oecd area and in east asia but not in latin america this differential outcome finds explanation in terms of the relative strength of dynamic increasing returns copyright 1997 by oxford university press

welfare costs of the u s antidumping and countervailing duty laws abstract the antidumping ad and countervailing duty cvd laws in the united states have become the most pervasive form of import relief sought by domestic producers this paper estimates the collective economic effect of the hundreds of active u s ad cvd orders using a computable general equilibrium model we estimate that the collective net economic welfare cost in 1993 of these orders to be 4 billion this welfare estimate is sensitive to various modeling assumptions which are explored in the paper with the implementation of the uruguay round agreements the ad cvd laws remain one of the costliest programs restraining u s trade

soviet postwar industrial growth and capital labour substitution an empirical note abstract this note tests an aggregate transcendental production function for soviet industry the estimated equation shows the elasticity of substitution in aggregate soviet industry in less than unity and it is decreasing quite rapidly

sectoral regularities of productivity growth in developing countries a kaldorian interpretation this paper provides a kaldorian interpretation for empirical regularities of product ivity growth at the sectoral level of the economy the statistical evidence is based on a dataset drawn from internationally compatible time series for employment and value added in 30 developing countries based on novel non linear statistical techniques the findings show i a regular pattern of positive sectoral employment elasticities with respect to output growth ii robust differences across sectors in the magnitude of the employment elasticities and iii employment elasticities for all sectors that are signifi cantly less than unity suggesting strong evidence for increasing returns at the sector level of the economy

carbon taxation and market structure a cge analysis for russia abstract russia is one of the world s major sources of carbon based energy as well as one its most intensive users introducing carbon taxes can lead to a reduction in emissions and encourage investment in energy efficiency we investigate the economic effects of carbon taxes on the russian economy under perfect competition and a cournot oligopoly in output markets the main findings are i substituting carbon taxes for labour taxes can yield a strong double dividend in russia however welfare gains strongly depend on the labour supply elasticity and elasticities of substitution between capital labour and energy ii under the assumption of a cournot oligopoly with homogenous products and symmetric firms in the markets for natural gas petroleum and chemical products metals and minerals welfare costs of the environmental tax reform can be higher than under perfect competition this is because introducing carbon taxes leads to a reduction in already sub optimal output thereby exacerbating pre existing distortions arising from imperfect competition iii furthermore increases in energy costs can result in higher mark ups in some markets because of less competition resulting from firms exit

the transition between energy efficient and energy inefficient states in cameroon i use a two state energy efficient inefficient markov switching dynamic model to study energy efficiency in cameroon in a novel manner employing yearly data covering 1971 to 2012 i find that th

accumulation innovation and catching up an extended cumulative growth model this paper presents an extended model of cumulative growth in which the effects of innovation and catching up are considered innovation adds another source of cumulative growth to that of traditional models and allows a consideration of the importance of non price determinants of international competitiveness catching up is the major force leading to convergence in productivity owing to the effect of the diffusion of technology the model allows one to analyse whether cumulative forces may lead to stable growth and whether this solution generates convergence in productivity levels the structural model is tested for a set of oecd countries over the period 1965 94

kaldorian approach to greek economic growth in the last 30 years greece has experienced a rapid rate of economic growth which has transformed the economy and enabled it to become a member of the eec specifically greece transformed itself from an agricultural economy with virtually no industrial base to an economy with a significant industrial sector and consequently a relatively high income per capita one can explain this on the lines of a kaldorian framework in this paper we provide an outline of kaldor s growth model and test its relevance to the economic experience of greece during the 1967 1988 period the empirical results suggest that the model can adequately explain the developments in the economy to a considerable degree

critical survey the new geographical turn in economics some critical reflections over the past few years a new geographical economics has emerged focused on the spatial agglomeration of industry and the long run convergence of regional incomes several leading names are associated with this geographical turn including paul krugman michael porter robert barro and w brian arthur this new economic geography it is argued here is neither that new nor is it geography instead it is a reworking or re invention using recent developments in formal mathematical mainstream economics of traditional location theory and regional science as such it is quite opposed to and difficult to reconcile with the work on regional development and industrial agglomeration being carried out in economic geography proper

the influence of increased foreign competition on industrial concentration and profitability abstract this paper uses the chilean manufacturing censuses of 1967 and 1979 to examine the effects of the chilean reforms in the mid 1970s on market structure and performance the reforms substantially increased the concentration in industry and substantially reduced profitability these outcomes are interpreted in the light of hypotheses about the effect of potential entrants on market structure and on the pricing behavior of incumbents next a cross sectoral simultaneous equations model of structure and performance is estimated to isolate the contribution of import and export shares to cross sectoral variations in concentration and profitability and to test for structural change between the two censuses the analysis confirms that the liberalization of trade changed the way import and export shares determined profitability and supports the import discipline hypothesis

history versus equilibrium and the theory of economic growth a model of cumulative causation is developed and the limits of this model as a characterization of historical rather than equilibrium long run growth outcomes are discussed an extension of the model which postulates that cumulative causation occurs in the context of technological and institutional regimes is proposed outcomes in the extended model are shown to be more influenced by history than those in the original model the extended model also addresses a number of recent criticisms of cumulative causation copyright 1997 by oxford university press

a synoptic view of regional growth and unemployment ii the post keynesian theory this paper discusses the post keynesian explanation of the causes of disparities in regional growth and unemployment rates it begins by examining the relationship between the real wage rate the level of demand and regional unemployment next it shows how regional growth is primarily determined by the rate of growth of exports a two region model is outlined which demonstrates how regional growth rates are interrelated through interregional trade flows and the regional balance of payments constraint the paper concludes with a discussion of the cumulative causation theory of regional growth

a kaldorian approach to regional economic growth in china kaldor s engine of growth hypothesis is examined in the case of the chinese economy china has in the last decade experienced a rapid industrialization and very strong economic growth using regional data of this growth process the three kaldorian laws of economic growth are tested the empirical results support the hypothesis there seems to be an especially strong relation between productivity and industrial growth

the impact of surges in net private capital inflows on manufacturing investment and unemployment abstract we use local projection methods to examine the dynamic response of surges in net private capital inflows on the output and employment shares of manufacturing the investment output ratio and the unemployment rate high income countries are studied separately from emerging economies both from asia and latin america our sample covers the years from 1970 to 2010 we find that surges in high income countries do not magnify the trend toward deindustrialization however the persistent decline in the investment to gdp ratio and the rise in the overall unemployment rate suggest that surges may negatively affect longer run growth prospects and employment opportunities in these countries in middle income asian countries surges tend to induce deindustrialization in both output and employment in the medium run but they do not lower the investment to gdp ratio in middle income latin america surges speed up deindustrialization lower investment and raise economy wide unemployment

is cumulative growth in manufacturing productivity slowing down in the eu12 regions the cumulative causation in the relation between labour productivity and output growth known as verdoorn s law is empirically tested using data from 109 eu12 regions during the period 1977 2005 several specifications of verdoorn s law are put forward in this paper which attribute the process of cumulative causation to a series of factors including manufacturing agglomeration spatial interaction and responses to the problems of growth the findings suggest that although cumulative causation holds over this period the slowdown of its pace is nonetheless apparent post 1992 revisions in responses e g policy along with further research are thus recommended the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved

capabilities and habitat in industrial renewal the case of uk textiles the paper develops an ecological approach to explore conditions for industrial renewal in the uk textiles and apparel sector and the possibilities for policy the authors argue that the material legacy of deindustrialisation conditions the opportunities for survivor firms and creates specific sub sectoral industrial ecologies literature from economics business studies development and ecological studies is used to outline a framework that allows different possible relations between firm capability and local habitat two subsectors carpets and apparel are used to explore the notion of interaction between firm capability and ecology though the context of deindustrialisation is similar in some respects the specific conditions provide quite distinctive opportunities for renewal in carpets relatively larger firms have more successfully co evolved with retailers through various kinds of mutuality in apparel a workshop sector of mainly small and micro firms frequently struggles with predatory behaviour by much larger retailers the implication of this analysis is that industrial policy needs to be grounded in analysis of the capabilities habitat interplay focusing on areas where conditions are favourable or can be improved through supporting firm capabilities and modifying supply chain behaviours the concepts and analysis are relevant for considering other industries and contexts where industrial renewal depends on producer firms and the ecology in which they operate