capital management in mutual financial institutions abstract capital management by mutual financial institutions such as credit unions provides a valuable testing ground for assessing the impact of capital regulation and theories of managerial behaviour in financial institutions limited access to external equity capital means that capital accumulation must be met primarily by reliance on retained earnings to deal with shocks to the capital position and avoid breaching regulatory requirements managers will aim to have a buffer of capital in excess of the regulatory minimum moreover mutual governance arrangements and an absence of capital market discipline mean that managers have discretion to set target capital ratios which differ significantly from industry averages this paper develops a formal model of capital management and risk management in mutual financial institutions such as credit unions which reflects these industry characteristics the model is tested using data from larger credit unions in australia which have been subject to the basel accord risk weighted capital requirements since 1993 the data supports the hypothesis that credit unions manage their capital position by setting a short term target profit rate return on assets which is positively related to asset growth and which is aimed at gradually removing discrepancies between the actual and desired capital ratio desired capital ratios vary significantly across credit unions there is little evidence of short run adjustments to the risk of the asset portfolio to achieve a desired capital position

inequality and fractionalization we present evidence that ethnic fragmentation explains variations in per capita income institutions and schooling better than income inequality when both are treated as endogenous to do so we identify instruments for ethnic fractionalization and income inequality based on historical experience using instrumental variables estimation we find that ethnic fractionalization explains the level of income both when income inequality is included as a control in the estimation and when it is not however we find no evidence that income inequality affects the level of income when ethnic fractionalization is properly treated as an endogenous variable we have similar findings when other development outcomes such as schooling or proxies for institutional quality are used as dependent variables these results are robust to various controls and changes in the sample size and suggest that some of the previous findings regarding the effect of income inequality on development should be attributed to ethnic fractionalization

capital requirements and bank behaviour empirical evidence for switzerland abstract in recent years regulators have increased their focus on the capital adequacy of banking institutions to enhance the stability of the financial system the purpose of the present paper is to shed some light on whether and how swiss banks react to constraints placed by the regulator on their capital building on previous work by shrieves and dahl cf shrieves r e dahl d 1992 the relationship between risk and capital in commercial banks journal of banking and finance 16 439 457 we use a simultaneous equations model to analyse adjustments in capital and risk at swiss banks when those approach the minimum regulatory capital level our results indicate that regulatory pressure induce banks to increase their capital but does not affect the level of risk

the effectiveness of bank capital adequacy regulation a theoretical and empirical approach the aim of this paper is to analyse how banking firms set their capital ratios that is the rate of equity capital over assets in order to study this isue two theoretical models are developed both models deal with the existence of an optimal capital ratio the first one for firms not affected by capital adequacy regulation the second one for firms which are the models have been tested by estimating a disequilibrium model using data of spanish savings banks

joint effects of interest rate deregulation and capital requirements on optimal bank portfolio adjustments the 1980 depository institution deregulation and monetary control act didmca mandates that regulation q be phased out by 1986 with deregulation of interest rate ceilings the cost of raising capital funds for commercial banks would become more volatile and more closely related with interest rates in the money and capital markets thus value maximizing bank managers would need to be concerned not only with the internal risk but also with the external risk in bank portfolio management decisions based upon the cash flow version of the capital asset pricing model this paper analyzes the joint impact of interest rate deregulation and capital requirements on the portfolio behavior of a banking firm the 1980 depository institution deregulation and monetary control act didmca mandates that regulation q be phased out by 1986 with deregulation of interest rate ceilings the cost of raising capital funds for commercial banks would become more volatile and more correlated with interest rates in the money and capital markets the bank s cash profit would be more dependent on the interest rate fluctuation ceteris paribus thus the value of a banking firm would also be more dependent on the correlation of the banking firm s cash profit with that of the external market ceteris paribus therefore as deregulation continues a value maximizing bank manager would need to be concerned not only with variance and covariances among the returns on bank assets but also with covariances between rates on bank assets and liabilities as well as that in the external markets study of portfolio behavior of a banking firm should distinguish between the impact of internal risk and external risk on firm value furthermore with interest rate deregulation and the ensuing interactions among various risks banks may also react differently to capital regulation imposed by the regulatory agency despite numerous studies on regulation of bank capital the joint effects of interest rate deregulation and capital requirements on bank

education and invention abstract modern growth theory puts invention on the center stage inventions are created by individuals raising the question of whether we can increase the number of inventors to answer this question we study the causal effect of msc engineering education on invention using data on u s patents finnish inventors and the distance to the nearest technical university as an instrument we find a positive effect of engineering education on the propensity to patent and a negative ols bias our counterfactual calculation suggests that establishing three new technical universities resulted in a 20 increase in the number of uspto patents by finnish inventors

early tracking and the misfortune of being young recent research suggests that the relative age of a student within a grade has a causal effect on educational achievement and that this effect fades with the duration of schooling in this study we estimate the causal relative age effect on track choice in austria a country where students are first tracked in grade 5 at the age of 10 years and again in grade 9 we find a strong positive relative age effect on track choice in grades 5 8 the age effect persists beyond grade 8 for students from less favorable socioeconomic backgrounds and students in urban areas

financial inclusion and poverty a tale of forty five thousand households abstractusing a new nationally representative survey data covering approximately 45 000 indian households we examine the effects of financial inclusion on poverty we construct a multidimensional

decomposing intergenerational income elasticity the gender differentiated contribution of capital transmission in rural philippines summary using longitudinal data from rural philippines we decompose intergenerational income elasticity ige into five distinct pathways intergenerational transmissions of health education land and spouse education capital plus residual correlation in productivity intergenerational human capital transmissions from mothers are stronger than those from fathers maternal education is the parental capital most strongly associated with ige while naive ige estimates are indistinguishable for sons and daughters the pathways that generate these results differ strikingly for sons ige is entirely explained by parent to child capital transmission by contrast strong income correlation exists between daughters and parents even after controlling for parent and child capital endowments

financial intermediation as a beliefs bridge between optimists and pessimists this paper proposes a new framework for understandingnancial intermediation in contrast to previous research we consider a setting in which intermediaries possess no inherent information processing or monitoring advantages instead in an economy with overly optimistic entrepreneurs who require funding from overly skeptical pessimistic investors we show that intermediaries can arise endogenously in such a setting only a rational intermediary will be su ciently optimistic tond it worthwhile to invest in a technology for screening entrepreneurs projects and yet be pessimistic enough to use this technology our framework produces implications consistent with heretofore unexplained stylized facts and a number of others which are as of yet untested

rich dad smart dad decomposing the intergenerational transmission of income we construct a simple model consistent with becker and tomes that decomposes the intergenerational income elasticity into the causal effect of financial resources the mechanistic transmission of human capital and the role that human capital plays in the determination of fathers permanent incomes we show how a particular set of instrumental variables could separately identify the money and human capital transmission effects using data from a 35 percent sample of swedish sons and their fathers we show that only a minority of the intergenerational income elasticity can be plausibly attributed to the causal effect of fathers financial resources

implications of corporate capital structure theory for banking institutions the determination of an optimal capital structure for commercial banks has stimulated discussion and controversy among scholars bankers and regulators for many years while numerous studies e g 5 16 18 19 21 24 have explored this issue the underlying question remains unresolved at the same time the issue of optimal capital structure has seen a resurgence of interest in the corporate finance literature in recent years the effects on corporate capital structure of the tax system 15 agency costs 10 23 and bankruptcy costs 9 as well as the combined effects of these factors 2 6 have all come under scrutiny although several previous papers e g 3 5 8 24 have argued that banks are susceptible to corporate capital structure theory to our knowledge the full range of recent developments in this theory has not been brought to bear on the bank capital decision the purpose of this paper then is to draw implications from this theory for the determinants of bank capital structure over time and across banks of different size in section 1 below we briefly review recent work in corporate finance theory on the capital structure effects of taxes and agency costs in section 2 we discuss the effects of the interaction between the tax system and the production function for financial services on commercial bank capital structures in section 3 we analyze the nature of bankruptcy and agency costs in banking and their potential influence on bank capital finally in section 4 we summarize and draw conclusions from our analysis

the effect of a specialized versus a general upper secondary school curriculum on students performance and inequality a difference in differences cross country analysis countries differ in their academic upper secondary school systems whereby some require their students to choose a specialization track from a set of areas typically natural sciences economic sci

banks buffer capital how important is risk abstract most banks hold a capital to asset ratio well above the required minimum defined by the present capital adequacy regulation basel i using bank level panel data from norway important hypotheses concerning the determination of this buffer capital are analyzed focus is on the importance of i risk ii the buffer as an insurance iii the competition effect iv supervisory discipline and v economic growth a negative or non significant risk effect is found which suggests that introducing a more risk sensitive capital regulation basel ii is likely to affect norwegian banks support is found for the hypothesis that buffer capital serves as an insurance against failure to meet the capital requirements

the impact of regulation on bank equity infusions abstract this article examines the extent to which regulatory capital standards influence infusions of external equity into commercial banks while such infusions occur infrequently they result in large adjustments to overall bank capital and provide important signals to regulators of managerial intent using a sample of 753 equity capital issues occurring during 1986 and 1987 we find evidence that regulatory minimum capital constraints are instrumental in influencing the financing decisions made by a significant subset of banks

the impact of ethnic diversity on microenterprise start ups until recently factors determining the decisions made by microfinance institutions mfis to extend loans to business start ups had not been explored recent evidence shows that mfi performance wi

religious polarization and economic development abstract this paper analyzes the effect of religious diversity on economic development we argue that the religious polarization index is more appropriate to measure the effect of potential conflict on economic development than the traditional fragmentation index the empirical exercises support this view

assessing students equality of opportunity in oecd countries the role of national and school level policies abstractthis article analyses the relationship between equality of opportunity and the characteristics of the educational system jointly considering country and school level policies because school social environment represents a fundamental channel in shaping educational opportunities we consider all policies recorded in pisa 2012 dataset that affect the sorting of students to schools we show that including sorting policies enriches the explanation of the socio economic gradient that is the association between students performances and parental background with respect to previous studies including only country level features the negative impact of early tracking on equality of opportunity is overvalued without including other sorting policies while grouping students within school by ability increases the socio economic gradient and a greater students heterogeneity in the school reduces the gradient

new ways of looking at old issues inequality and growth abstract the paper uses new cross country data on income and asset land distribution to show that i there is a strong negative relationship between initial inequality in the asset distribution and long term growth ii inequality reduces income growth for the poor but not for the rich and iii available longitudinal data provide little support for the kuznets hypothesis policies that increase aggregate investment and facilitate acquisition of assets by the poor might thus be doubly beneficial for growth and poverty reduction

do capital adequacy requirements reduce risks in banking abstract in a dynamic framework it is shown that capital adequacy rules may increase a bank s riskiness in addition to the standard negative effect of rents on risk attitudes of banks a further intertemporal effect has to be considered the intuition behind the result is that under binding capital requirements an additional unit of equity tomorrow is more valuable to a bank if raising equity is excessively costly the only possibility to increase equity tomorrow is to increase risk today

economic growth inequality and poverty estimating the growth elasticity of poverty summary this paper uses a new data set of 126 intervals from 60 developing countries to analyze the growth elasticity of poverty that is how much does poverty decline in percentage terms with a given percentage rise in economic growth the data set is both broader in coverage and more selective in terms of quality controls than those used in the past the study finds that while economic growth does reduce poverty in developing countries the rate of poverty reduction depends very much on how economic growth is defined controlling for changes in income inequality when economic growth is measured by changes in survey mean income consumption the growth elasticity of poverty excluding eastern europe and central asia is 2 79 that is a 10 increase in the survey mean will reduce poverty 1 00 person day by 27 9 but when growth is measured by changes in gdp per capita the growth elasticity of poverty is a statistically insignificant 2 27 which is lower than has previously been estimated

cross country differences in intergenerational earnings mobility international studies of the extent to which economic status is passed from one generation to the next are important for at least two reasons first each study of a particular country characterizes an important feature of that country s income inequality second comparisons of intergenerational mobility across countries may yield valuable clues about how income status is transmitted across generations and why the strength of that intergenerational transmission varies across countries the e rst section of this paper explains a benchmark measure of intergenerational mobility commonly used in u s studies the second section summarizes comparable empirical e ndings that have accumulated so far for countries other than the united states the third section sketches a theoretical framework for interpreting cross country differences in intergenerational mobility

the capital crunch neither a borrower nor a lender be the dramatic reduction in the growth rate of bank lending associated with the 1990 91 recession particularly in new england has evoked claims by many observers of a credit crunch however because of the difficulty in determining whether the observed slow credit growth is a demand or supply phenomenon convincing evidence of the practical importance of credit crunches for economic activity remains elusive we overcome this obstacle by examining a cross section of banks in new england that have experienced the same economic downturn effectively controlling for changes in demand we find empirical support for a capital crunch whereby poorly capitalized institutions shrink to satisfy capital requirements this alone is not a sufficient condition for a credit crunch however we find s6me additional evidence that the ca ital crunch may have limited credit availability in new england

is the international convergence of capital adequacy regulation desirable the merit of international convergence of bank capital requirements in the presence of divergent closure policies of diierent central banks is examined the lack of a complementary variation between minimum bank capital requirements and regulatory forbearance leads to a spillover from more forbearing to less forbearing economies and reduces the competitive advantage of banks in less forbearing economies linking the central bank s forbearance to its alignment with domestic bank owners it is shown that in equilibrium a regression toward the worst closure policy may result the central banks of initially less forbearing economies also adopt greater forbearance i analyze the joint design of two bank regulatory mechanisms minimum capital requirements which are an ex ante mechanism to prevent bank failures and closure policy which is an ex post mechanism to manage the cost of bank failures at the heart of the paper is a simple but fundamental point ex post policies affect ex ante incentives and hence the design of an ex ante mechanism must take into account any feedback from the ex post policies the optimal design of capital requirements is thus tied to the extent of forbearance exercised by the central bank s closure policy this warrants a closer scrutiny of the merits of creating a level playing eld in capital requirements across countries as proposed and

ethnic diversity social sanctions and public goods in kenya abstract this paper examines ethnic diversity and local public goods in rural western kenya the identification strategy relies on the stable historically determined patterns of ethnic land settlement ethnic diversity is associated with lower primary school funding and worse school facilities and there is suggestive evidence that it leads to poor water well maintenance the theoretical model illustrates how inability to impose social sanctions in diverse communities leads to collective action failures and we find that school committees in diverse areas do impose fewer sanctions on defaulting parents we relate these results to the literature on social capital and economic development and discuss implications for decentralization in less developed countries

the political economy of intergenerational income mobility the intergenerational elasticity of income is considered one of the best measures of the degree to which a society gives equal opportunity to its members while much research has been devoted to measuring this reduced form parameter less is known about its underlying structural determinants using a model with exogenous talent endowments endogenous parental investment in children and endogenous redistributive institutions we identify the structural parameters that govern the intergenerational elasticity of income the model clarifies how the interaction between private and collective decisions determines the equilibrium level of social mobility two societies with similar economic and biological fundamentals may have vastly different degrees of intergenerational mobility depending on their political institutions we offer empirical evidence in line with the predictions of the model we conclude that international comparisons of intergenerational elasticity of income are not particularly informative about fairness without taking into account differences in politico economic institutions jel e24 j62 j68 p16

school tracking and access to higher education among disadvantaged groups abstract when students are tracked into vocational and academic secondary schools access to higher education is usually restricted to those who complete an academic track postponing such tracking may increase university attendance among disadvantaged students if additional time in school enables them to catch up with their more privileged counterparts however if ability and expectations are fairly well set by an early age postponing tracking during adolescence may not have much effect this paper exploits an educational reform in romania to examine the impact of postponing tracking on the proportion of disadvantaged students graduating from university using a regression discontinuity rd design we show that although students from poor rural areas and with less educated parents were significantly more likely to finish an academic track and become eligible to apply for university after the reform this did not translate into an increase in university completion our findings indicate that simply postponing tracking without increasing the slots available in university is not sufficient to improve access to higher education for disadvantaged groups

valuation capital structure and shareholder unanimity for depository financial intermediaries the theory of corporate finance is not directly applicable to financial intermediary decision making the lack of applicability stems largely from the particular conditions that distinguish intermediary operations from those of the nonfinancial firm first when intermediaries accept deposit financing they must produce services such as liquidity and convenience at considerable expense for real resources second the introduction of intermediation is likely to be accompanied by incomplete markets so that shareholder unanimity is not in general valid in this paper a model with incomplete markets is developed and a shareholder approved rule for intermediary capital structure decisions is derived

fractionalization entrepreneurship and the institutional environment for entrepreneurship the vast majority of the literature on ethnicity and entrepreneurship focuses on the construct of ethnic entrepreneurship however very little is known about how ethnic heterogeneity affects entrepreneurship and the institutional arrangements affecting entrepreneurship this study attempts to fill the gap and thus examines the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on various outcomes associated with entrepreneurship and the institutional environment for entrepreneurship using indices of ethnic and linguistic fractionalization we show that ethnic heterogeneity negatively influences entrepreneurship we argue that potential channels that can explain the negative effect of fractionalization on entrepreneurship include trust social network and innovation among others this study provides a new perspective on the existing debate that seeks to understand why the levels of entrepreneurial success vary across countries

credit market competition and capital regulation market discipline for financial institutions can be imposed not only from the liability side as has often been stressed in the literature on the use of subordinated debt but also from the asset side this will be particularly true if good lending opportunities are in short supply so that banks have to compete for projects in such a setting borrowers may demand that banks commit to monitoring by requiring that they use some of their own capital in lending thus creating an asset market based incentive for banks to hold capital borrowers can also provide banks with incentives to monitor by allowing them to reap some of the benefits from the loans which accrue only if the loans are in fact paid off since borrowers do not fully internalize the cost of raising capital to the banks the level of capital demanded by market participants may be above the one chosen by a regulator even when capital is a relatively costly source of funds this implies that capital requirements may not be binding as recent evidence seems to indicate

ethnic diversity and poverty we examine the relationship between ethnic diversity and poverty for a cross sectional sample of developing countries we measure diversity using indices of ethnic and linguistic fractionalization and measure poverty using the multidimensional poverty index mpi multidimensional poverty headcount mph intensity of deprivation poverty gap and poverty headcount ratio we find that ethnic and linguistic fractionalization contributes to poverty levels specifically after controlling for endogeneity we find that a standard deviation increase in ethnic fractionalization is associated with a 0 32 0 44 and 0 53 standard deviation increase in the mpi mph and the intensity of deprivation respectively moreover a standard deviation increase in ethnic fractionalization is associated with between a 0 34 and 0 63 standard deviation increase in the population living below 1 90 and 3 10 the poverty gap at 1 90 and 3 10 a day and the headcount ratio at 1 90 and 3 10 a day similar results are also observed for linguistic fractionalization with standardized coefficients between 0 53 and 0 93 we find that our results are robust to alternative ways to measure poverty and ethnic diversity including ethnic polarization as well as alternative approaches to address endogeneity

risk in banking and capital regulation this paper investigates the role of bank capital regulation in risk control it is known that banks choose portfolios of higher risk because of inefficiently priced deposit insurance bank capital regulation is a way to redress this bias toward risk utilizing the mean variance model the following results are shown a the use of simple capital ratios in regulation is an ineffective means to bound the insolvency risk of banks b as a solution to problems of the capital ratio regulation the theoretically correct risk weights under the risk based capital plan are explicitly derived and c the theoretically correct risk weights are restrictions on asset composition which alters the optimal portfolio choice of banking firms the recent increase in bank failures especially after the 1980 and 1982 deregulatory acts has again ignited a controversy over the risk portfolio of the banking industry given the importance of this sector there has been increased scrutiny of the industry s motives for risk taking and possible regulatory changes to improve its stability these investigations have centered around two rather complementary areas the first of these is the role of deposit insurance and how its current pricing procedure encourages risk taking and justifies current bank regulations the works of buser chen and kane 4 kane 9 and benston et al 2 have made substantive contributions the authors demonstrates the way in which our current fixed rate insurance system rewards risk taking by the firm and insulates it through deposit insurance from the market discipline that needs to exist to ensure proper risk evaluation this realization has led these authors to propose a series of regulatory changes to encourage proper portfolio choice within the industry these include a shift to market value accounting risk based deposit insurance premiums and additional capital regulation the last of these serves as a method of coinsurance whereby higher capital levels require the bank to absorb greater losses in the event of failure and encourage additional prudence in management in essense it is one method of risk reduction that may offset the risk preference imposed on the industry due to the inappropriate insurance pricing because the amount of capital influences the probability of bank insolvency and thus the soundness of the entire banking system the regulators ceteris paribus prefer more capital to

why the apple doesn t fall far understanding intergenerational transmission of human capital parents with higher education levels have children with higher education levels however is this because parental education actually changes the outcomes of children suggesting an important spillover of education policies or is it merely that more able individuals who have higher education also have more able children this paper proposes to answer this question with a unique dataset from norway using the reform of the education system that was implemented in different municipalities at different times in the 1960s as an instrument for parental education we find little evidence of a causal relationship between parents education and children s education despite significant ols relationships we find 2sls estimates that are consistently lower than the ols estimates with the only statistically significant effect being a positive relationship between mother s education and son s education these findings suggest that the high correlations between parents and children s education are due primarily to family characteristics and inherited ability and not education spillovers

federal deposit insurance regulatory policy and optimal bank capital this paper seeks to explain the combination of explicit and implicit pricing for deposit insurance employed by the fdic essentially the fdic sells two products insurance and regulation to span the product space it must and does set two prices we argue that the need to establish regulatory disincentives to bank risk taking is the heart of the controversy over the adequacy of bank capital and that the ability to close risky banks before exhausting their charter value i e the value of their right to continue in business stands at the center of these disincentives and in front of the fdic s insurance reserves just as a book shouldn t be judged by its cover a government agency shouldn t be judged by the words behind its initials with the fdic federal deposit insurance corporation the agency s name describes only part of its formal operations the fdic is quasi governmental has a regional structure and sells deposit insurance however the initials fail to convey the fdic s critical place in the governmental regulatory structure as the sole federal overseer of the approximately 8900 state chartered commercial banks that have chosen not to belong the federal reserve system reflecting the federal reserve s membership problem the number of these banks is growing year by year besides selling deposit insurance at bargain explicit rates the fdic performs four regulatory functions 1 entry regulation it passes on new banks applications for deposit insurance and on branch and merger proposals as well thereby protecting the value of existing bank charters 2 examination two thirds of fdic employees are concerned with inspecting bank records and supervising managerial activity 3 regulation of deposit rates and conditions for withdrawal by tradition fdic policies on these matters conform entirely with regulations applicable to federal reserve member banks and 4 disposition of failed banks when an insured bank fails the fdic usually chooses not to liquidate it 2

the desegregating effect of school tracking this paper makes the following point detracking schools that is preventing them from allocating students to classes according to their ability may lead to an increase in income residential segregation it does so in a simple model where households care about the school peer group of their children if ability and income are positively correlated tracking implies that some high income households face the choice of either living in the areas where most of the other high income households live and having their child assigned to the low track or instead living in lower income neighbourhoods where their child would be in the high track under mild conditions tracking leads to an equilibrium with partial income desegregation where perfect income segregation would be the only stable outcome without tracking

can the world cut poverty in half how policy reform and effective aid can meet international development goals abstract poverty in the developing world will decline by about one half by 2015 if the trends of the 1990s persist most of this poverty reduction will occur in asia however while poverty will decline only slightly in africa effective aid could make a contribution to greater poverty reduction in lagging regions even more potent would be significant policy reform in these countries we develop a model of efficient aid in which flows respond to policy improvements that create a better environment for poverty reduction and effective aid we investigate scenarios of policy reform and efficient aid that point the way to how the world can cut poverty in half in every major region

the cyclical behaviour of european bank capital buffers using an unbalanced panel of accounting data from 1997 to 2004 and controlling for individual bank costs and risk we find capital buffers of the banks in the eu15 have a significant negative co movement with the cycle for banks in the accession countries there is significant positive co movement capital buffers of commercial and savings banks and of large banks exhibit negative co movement those of co operative and smaller banks exhibit positive co movement speeds of adjustment are fairly slow we interpret these results and discuss policy implications noting that negative co movement of capital buffers will exacerbate the pro cyclical impact of basel ii

family background and economic status in finland the importance of family background for economic outcomes is analyzed using a finnish data set the estimates for intergenerational and sibling correlations in earnings are comparatively low by estimating the magnitude of family influence conditional on parental earnings children with poor parents are found to have lower intergenerational elasticities while the sibling resemblance is higher children with rich parents have higher intergenerational elasticities and the sibling resemblance is also higher except for daughters the results also indicate that the largest share of the intergenerational correlation is transmitted through observed characteristics such as education and in particular occupation jel classification d1 d3 j6

on forecasting interest rates an efficient markets perspective abstract efficient markets do not preclude economic agents from successfully forecasting movements in short term interest rates for brief forecast intervals however ex ante changes in long term rates are sufficiently close to zero that economic agents are not likely to improve upon the no change prediction of the martingale model economic agents in effect are not likely to succeed in forecasting short term movements in long term interest rates this paper illustrates the closeness of the martingale approximation for two sets of canadian interest rates data emphasizing the importance of the forecast interval the paper then examines three sets of recorded forecasts of canadian interest rates and finds results consistent with the theoretical discussion

ethnicity and credit in african manufacturing abstract this paper investigates whether market interaction can by itself perpetuate the lack of ethnic diversity that is observed in the business communities of many developing countries using case study data on manufacturing firms in kenya and zimbabwe we find no evidence that blacks or women are disadvantaged in the attribution of bank credit once we control for firm size and other observable characteristics in contrast an ethnic and gender bias is noticeable in the attribution of supplier credit although we cannot rule out the presence of discrimination the bulk of the evidence indicates that network effects play an important role in explaining this bias

growth inequality and poverty looking beyond averages the evidence is compelling that the poor in developing countries do typically share in the gains from rising aggregate affluence and in the losses from aggregate contraction but how much do poor people share in growth do they gain more in some settings than others do some gain while others lose does pro poor growth mean more or less aggregate growth recent theories and evidence suggest some answers but deeper microeconomic empirical work is needed on growth and distributed change only then will we have a firm basis for identifying the specific policies and programs needed to complement and possibly modify growth oriented policies

cross country rankings in intergenerational mobility a comparison of approaches from economics and sociology this paper summarizes research on the relative level of intergenerational mobility whether classified by income education or social class the literatures on education and income mobility reveal a similar ranking with south america other developing nations southern european countries and france tending to have rather limited mobility although the nordic countries exhibit strong mobility estimates of mobility based on social class point to rather different patterns and we demonstrate that these differences are most likely generated by intergenerational earnings persistence within social classes the second part of the paper looks for explanations for the differences in earnings and education persistence and finds that mobility is negatively correlated with inequality and the return to education but positively correlated with a nation s education spending

intergenerational persistence of earnings the role of early and college education recent empirical evidence from the united states indicates a high degree of persistence in earnings across generations designing effective public policies to increase social mobility requires identifying and measuring the major sources of persistence and inequality in earnings we provide a quantitative model of intergenerational human capital transmission that focuses on three sources innate ability early education and college education we find that approximately one half of the intergenerational correlation in earnings is accounted for by parental investment in education in particular early education we show that these results have important implications for education policy

the cyclical effects of the basel ii capital requirements abstract capital requirements play a key role in the supervision and regulation of banks the basel committee on banking supervision is in the process of changing the current framework by introducing risk sensitive capital charges some fear that this will unduly increase the volatility of regulatory capital furthermore by limiting the banks ability to lend capital requirements may exacerbate an economic downturn the paper examines the problem of capital induced lending cycles and their pro cyclical effect on the macroeconomy in greater detail it finds that the capital buffer that banks hold on top of the required minimum capital plays a crucial role in mitigating the impact of the volatility of capital requirements

family background and income during the rise of the welfare state brother correlations in income for swedish men born 1932 1968 we investigate if the association between family background and income in sweden has changed for men born between 1932 and 1968 our main finding is that the share of the variance in long run income that is attributable to family background the so called brother correlation in income has fallen by some 17 from 0 49 for the cohorts of brothers born in the early 1930s to below 0 32 for the cohorts born around 1950 from then on the correlations have inched back up to around 0 37 we report suggestive evidence that the decline is driven by changes in education

ethnic diversity energy poverty and the mediating role of trust evidence from household panel data for australia abstract energy poverty is now a major concern on the public policy agenda in many countries however evidence on the determinants of energy poverty is relatively scant our study contributes to the debate on the determinants of energy poverty by being the first to examine the impact of ethnic diversity on household energy poverty using 12 waves of longitudinal data from the household income and labour dynamics in australia hilda survey we find that in australia ethnic diversity is positively associated with energy poverty our preferred instrumented estimates suggest that a standard deviation increase in ethnic diversity is associated with a 0 103 0 422 standard deviation increase in energy poverty depending on how energy poverty is measured this finding is generally robust to alternative ways of measuring ethnic diversity and energy poverty we identify trust as an important channel through which ethnic diversity operates and point to the need for policies that engender social capital in multicultural societies as a means to harness the benefits of diversity

government spending growth and poverty in rural india using state level data for 1970 93 a simultaneous equation model was developed to estimate the direct and indirect effects of different types of government expenditure on ruralpoverty and productivity growth in india the results show that in order to reduce rural poverty the indian government shoul d give highest priority to additionalinvestments in ruralroads and agricul turalresearch these types of investment not only have much larger poverty impacts per rupee spent than any other government investment but also generate higher productivity growth apart from government spending on education which has the third l argest marginalimpact on ruralpoverty and produc

tracking can be more equitable than mixing parents and policy makers often wonder whether and how the choice of a tracked or mixed educational system affects the equality of opportunity i answer this question by analyzing the influence of peers on future educational results i define an equal opportunity policy as one that maximizes the average lifetime income of the worst off type of individuals in society i e students from disadvantaged backgrounds i find that tracking maximizes average lifetime income if the opportunity cost of college attendance is sufficiently high

deregulation and bank financial policy the standard view that banks can value maximize by exploiting non risk rated deposit insurance ignores the potential loss of a valuable bank charter due to insolvency recognition of this effect changes the bank s optimal financial policy and can induce extreme risk averting as well as risk taking behavior however as the value of the bank charter falls the risk taking strategy is more apt to dominate therefore current deregulation of the banking industry by easing entry and devaluing charters holds the potential for increases in the incidence of insolvency unless offsetting policies are instituted

capital requirements and the behaviour of commercial banks abstract i study the consequences of capital regulations on the portfolio choices of commercial banks elaborating on previous work by kareken and wallace 1978 koehn and santomero 1980 and kim and santomero 1988 i obtain the following results if the objective of commercial banks is maximization of the market value of their future profits value maximizing banks capital regulations cannot prevent banks from choosing very specialized and very risky portfolios risk based insurance premia are in fact the relevant instrument for that purpose on the other hand if banks behave as portfolio managers utility maximizing banks capital regulations can be effective but only if the weights used in the computation of the ratio are proportional to the systematic risks of the assets their betas because of limited liability of commercial banks a minimum capital regulation or a closing rule may become necessary as well to prevent failing banks from betting for resurrection

the bank capital decision a time series cross section analysis this paper seeks to explain the dramatic decline in capital to asset ratios in u s commercial banks during the last two decades it is hypothesized that the rise in nominal interest rates during this period might have contributed substantially to the fall in capital ratios time series cross section estimation supports the hypothesis regarding the interest rate bank capital is the sum of equity plus debt subordinated to deposits capital provides a cushion that protects the bank from insolvency when the value of its assets falls a bank can meet its obligations to depositors as long as losses on its asset portfolio do not exceed its capital the ratio of capital to total assets in u s commercial banks has fallen dramatically in the last two decades dropping from 11 7 percent in 1961 to 5 7 percent in 1978 the lowest level since world war ijj1 figure 1 shows the decline in the ratio of capital to noncash assets these figures suggest that the federal deposit insurance corporation fdic and uninsured depositors are being exposed to increased probabilities of losses from bank insolvencies however relatively little empirical research has been devoted to the determinants of the bank capital decision further the existing work see for example peltzman 24 mingo 20 or mayne 17 18 uses only cross sectional data and therefore does not necessarily explain the decline in capital to asset ratios over time previous empirical research has also focused on book values rather than market values of debt and equity although market values provide better estimates of the protection afforded by capital this practice might be partly justified by the attention paid to book values by bank regulators however the increasing use of qualitative factors as well as book ratios in capital regulation indicates that regulators are aware of the deficiencies in book values many of the so called qualitative considerations are precisely the factors that distinguish market from book value 6 pp 78 80 finally difficulties arise over the proper measure of capital the empirical studies cited above treat equity and debt capital symmetrically both equity and assistant professor of finance economics boston university school of management this paper was originally written as part of a doctoral dissertation at m i t helpful suggestions from robert mcdonald richard schmalensee larry summers and edward j kane are gratefully acknowledged l these statistics are based on the market values of capital and assets the methods used to construct the market value series are described in the appendix capital asset ratios based on book values also have fallen over the period in question although not as severely

the extent of the market and stages of agricultural specialization this paper provides empirical evidence of nonlinearity in the relationship between crop specialization in a village economy and the extent of the market size of the urban market relevant for the village the results suggest that the portfolio of crops in a village economy becomes more diversified initially as the extent of the market increases however after the market size reaches a threshold the production structure becomes specialized again this evidence on the stages of agricultural diversification is consistent with the stages of diversification identified in the recent literature for the economy as a whole and also for the manufacturing sector the evidence highlights the importance of improving farmers access to markets through investment in transport infrastructure and removal of barriers to trading

segregation and the quality of government in a cross section of countries we provide a new compilation of data on ethnic linguistic and religious composition at the subnational level for a large number of countries using these data we measure segregation of groups within the country to overcome the endogeneity problem that arises because of mobility and endogenous in ternal borders we construct an instrument for segregation we find that more ethnically and lin guistically segregated countries i e those where groups live more spatially separately have a lower quality of government there is no relationship between religious segregation and governance trust is an important channel of influence it is lower in more segregated countries jel hi 1 h77 j15 017 z12 z13 racial and religious conflicts are often associated with poor politicoeconomic performance especially in developing countries economists have recently turned their attention to ethnolinguistic fractionalization as an explanation of differences in the pace of development starting with an influential paper by william easterly and ross levine 1997 since then many others have shown that fractionalization is negatively correlated with a host of policy outcomes and the quality of government 1 however many ethnically diverse countries the united states for instance are quite successful what makes different countries more or less capable of handling

bank holding company capital targets in the early 1990s the regulators versus the markets abstract several studies suggest that the credit crunch was due in large part to banks needs to raise their capital ratios the changes in bank capital ratios may have been in response to financial market or regulatory standards this study develops a model to test the relative impact of the regulators and the financial markets on bank holding companies bhcs capital ratios the results suggest that most bhcs were relatively satisfied with their capital ratios in 1989 however the regulators appear to have placed increased pressure on banks in 1990 1991 and 1992 especially bhcs that were subject to regulatory orders

a reexamination of mean variance analysis of bank capital regulation abstract the mean variance framework has been used to analyze the effects of bank capital regulation on the asset and bankruptcy risk of insured utility maximizing banks this literature claims that more stringent capital regulation will increase asset risk and can increase bankruptcy risk these conclusions are notable because they are opposite to those obtained for insured value maximizing banks in this paper we show that the utility maximization literature does not support its conclusions regarding the effects of bank capital regulation because it has mischaracterized the bank s investment opportunity set by neglecting the option value of deposit insurance

inequality does cause underdevelopment insights from a new instrument consistent with the provocative hypothesis of engerman and sokoloff 1997 2000 this paper confirms with cross country data that agricultural endowments predict inequality and inequality predicts development the use of agricultural endowments specifically the abundance of land suitable for growing wheat relative to that suitable for growing sugarcane as an instrument for inequality is this paper s approach to problems of measurement and endogeneity of inequality the paper finds inequality also affects other development outcomes institutions and schooling which the literature has emphasized as mechanisms by which higher inequality lowers per capita income it tests the inequality hypothesis for development institutional quality and schooling against other recent hypotheses in the literature while finding some evidence consistent with other development fundamentals the paper finds high inequality to independently be a large and statistically significant barrier to prosperity good quality institutions and high schooling

the role of ethnic diversity in sustainable environmental growth new evidence across different income regions we examine the relationship between ethnic diversity and environmental quality proxied by carbon dioxide formula presented emissions ethnic diversity is captured using indices of ethnic fractionalization adopting a supply demand framework which introduces a model for economic growth we find that ethnic fractionalization reduces formula presented emissions the negative effect of ethnic diversity on formula presented emissions is also consistent across middle and low income countries as well as high income countries however results suggest that ethnic diversity has a negative effect on growth in middle and low income countries but a positive effect on growth in high income countries our findings prove robust to alternative estimation methods

life cycle variations in the association between current and lifetime income replication and extension for sweden we apply haider and solon s generalized errors in variables model to swedish income tax data to produce estimates of the association between current and lifetime income our estimates demonstrate strong life cycle patterns this implies that the widespread use of current income as a proxy for lifetime income leads to inconsistent parameter estimates i e life cycle bias even when the proxy is used as the dependent variable estimates for comparable cohorts of swedish and american men demonstrate surprising similarities there are however significant gender and cohort differences in this association that lead to statistically significant and quantitatively meaningful differences in life cycle biases

standby letters of credit and large bank capital an empirical analysis abstract a recent trend in commercial banking has been the rapid growth in the issuance of off balance sheet guarantees revised capital standards presume that banks are increasing the issuance of off balance sheet guarantees to generate fee income and conserve primary capital while shifting out of low risk assets the relationship between standby letters of credit an off balance sheet guarantee and large bank capital is tested using granger causality and then estimated in a structural model to accurately estimate the relationship a simultaneous equation model is required to capture the positive effect of bank capital on standby letter of credit issuance

peer monitoring and credit markets a major problem for institutional lenders is ensuring that borrowers exercise prudence in the use of the funds so that the likelihood of repayment is enhanced one partial solution is peer monitoring having neighbors who are in a good position to monitor the borrower be required to pay a penalty if the borrower goes bankrupt peer monitoring is largely responsible for the successful financial performance of the grameen bank of bangladesh and of similar group lending programs elsewhere but peer monitoring has a cost it transfers risk from the bank which is in a better position to bear risk to the cosigner in a simple model of peer monitoring in a competitive credit market this article demonstrates that the transfer of risk leads to an improvement in borrowers welfare

roads out of poverty assessing the links between aid public investment growth and poverty reduction the authors develop a macroeconomic framework that captures links between aid public investment growth and poverty public investment is disaggregated into education infrastructure and health and affects both aggregate supply and demand dutch disease effects are captured by accounting for changes in the relative price of domestic goods the authors assess the impact of policy shocks on poverty by linking the model to a household survey they calibrate the model for ethiopia and simulate the changes in the allocation of aid and public investment the authors also calculate the amount by which foreign aid should increase to reach the poverty targets of the millennium development goals

capital and risk in property liability insurance markets abstract this paper investigates the capital and portfolio risk decisions of property liability insurance firms a theoretical model based on option pricing theory is developed which predicts a positive relationship between insurer capital and risk as firms balance these two factors to achieve their desired overall insolvency risk the implications of the model are then tested empirically using a simultaneous equations methodology the results support the predictions of the model they also provide evidence that managerial incentives play a role in determining capital and risk in insurance markets the findings have significant implications for insurance solvency regulation

disease control and inequality reduction evidence from a tuberculosis testing and vaccination campaign this article examines the economic impact of a tuberculosis control program launched in norway in 1948 in the 1940s norway had one of the highest tuberculosis infection rates in europe affecting about 85 of the inhabitants to lower the disease burden the norwegian government launched a large scale tuberculosis testing and vaccination campaign that substantially reduced tuberculosis infection rates among children we find that cohorts in school during and after the campaign in municipalities with high tuberculosis prevalence gained more in terms of education earnings longevity and height following this public health intervention furthermore the gains from the disease control program are not limited to the initially treated cohorts but also affect their children the results also suggest that individuals from a low socioeconomic background benefited more from the intervention and we present new evidence that a narrowing of the gap in childhood health can lead to a reduction in socioeconomic inequalities in adulthood

the long run effects of reducing early school tracking abstract this paper studies the effects of a french detracking reform on individuals long run education and labor market outcomes the reform delayed the age at which students were separated into vocational and general education by two years from age 11 to 13 the assignment of students to different types of education at age 11 was instead replaced by ability grouping whereby students followed a common general education curriculum but were divided into different classrooms based on their academic achievement using a regression discontinuity design i find that the reform raised individuals level of education and increased their wages by 6 at ages 40 to 45 these effects are concentrated among men and individuals from low socioeconomic backgrounds however the reform solely benefited individuals whose parents were born in france as it did not significantly affect children of immigrants educational and labor market outcomes

the macroeconomy and microfinance outreach a panel data analysis this study examines the effects of macroeconomic and institutional factors on microfinance institution mfi outreach to capture the performance of the macroeconomy we include proxies for institutional quality economic growth fdi inflow unemployment rate inflation and the prevalence of wage earning jobs further we examine effects on outreach along the dimensions of outreach depth and outreach breadth using data on 1526 mfis from 99 countries over the period 2000 to 2015 our results suggest that environments characterised by high levels of economic performance and good institutions tend to hinder outreach performance these results suggest that mfis depend on a poor economy to thrive given the informal nature of microfinance

income distribution development and foreign trade a cross sectional analysis abstract this paper analyses cross sectional evidence on income inequality in developing countries within a consistent theoretical framework where the major explanatory variables are factor endowments their ownership structure and foreign trade distortions the resulting explanation of cross country differences in income distribution is considerably better than what is found in the existing literature endowments in mineral resources land concentration in agricultural exports trade protection and secondary schooling are shown to be major determinants of differences in income inequality across developing countries

school tracking and intergenerational income mobility evidence from the finnish comprehensive school reform abstract this paper estimates the effect of a major education reform on intergenerational income mobility the finnish comprehensive school reform of 1972 1977 replaced the old two track school system with a uniform nine year comprehensive school and shifted the selection of students to vocational and academic tracks from age 11 to age 16 we estimate the effect of this reform on the intergenerational income elasticity using a representative sample of males born between 1960 and 1966 the identification strategy relies on a differences in differences approach and exploits the fact that the reform was implemented gradually across the country during a six year period the results indicate that the reform reduced the intergenerational income elasticity by 23 from the pre reform elasticity of 0 30 to post reform elasticity of 0 23

educational reform ability and family background in this paper we evaluate the impact of a major school reform that took place in the 1950s in sweden on educational attainment and earnings the reform which has many common elements with reforms in other european countries including the uk consisted of increasing compulsor schooling imposing a national curriculum and abolishing selection by ability into academic and non academic streams at the age of 12 comprehensive school reform our data combines survey data with administrative sources we find that the reform increased both the educational attainment and the earnings of children whose fathers had just compulsory education however the earnings of those with educated parents declined possibly because of a dilution of quality at the top end of the education levels the overall effect of the reform was however positive

regulation and the determination of bank capital changes a note the effectiveness of bank capital adequacy requirements is examined in this paper using empirical tests similar to those employed by peltzman and mingo no significant relationship is found between changes in bank capital and the capital standards imposed by regulators the findings conflict with those of previous studies the conflict in findings it is argued results from the failure of previous studies to account for the effect of binding deposit rate ceilings this paper reexamines the question of whether bank capital adequacy standards formulated by the regulators have any effect on the capital decisions of commercial banks using a much larger sample of banks and a different time period than previous studies we provide evidence that regulatory capital standards are not in general effective moreover we suggest that the conflicting conclusions reached by previous studies concerning the influence of bank capital standards result from a failure to account for the influence of other bank regulations particularly the effect of deposit interest rate ceilings bank capital serves two purposes it is a source of funding and it is a residual capable of absorbing losses these two functions of capital in banking do not differ qualitatively from the role of capital in a nonfinancial corporation the incentives for equity financing in banking differ from the incentives to use equity in nonfinancial firms primarily because of deposit insurance deposit insurance transfers default risk from depositors to the insurer as currently structured deposit insurance premiums are insensitive to the risk assumed by the insurer the federal deposit insurance corporation fdic a conflict therefore arises between the level of equity desired by bank shareholders and the level desired by the fdic this conflict arises because with complete insurance additional equity reduces the contingent liability of the insurer but does not reduce the cost of deposit financing through adjustments in deposit interest rates or through lower insurance premiums the absence of these benefits causes a conflict between the bank shareholders and the deposit insurer and

capital regulation and bank risk taking a note abstract this paper examines theoretically the effects of more stringent capital regulation on bank asset portfolio risk the analysis shows that for a value maximizing bank incentives to increase asset risk decline as its capital increases thus as long as regulatory efforts to contain asset risk and size are not reduced more stringent capital regulation unambiguously reduces the expected liability of the deposit insurance system

the intergenerational effects of parental higher education evidence from changes in university accessibility abstract we examine the causal relationship between the educational attainment of parents and that of their children using quasi experimental variation from changes in parents access to university generated by the geographical expansion of the finnish university system between the late 1950s and early 1970s our results suggest that for the children of parents affected by the changes in university accessibility there is a strong positive spillover effect of around 0 5 from parent s to child s attained years of education our analyses using alternative parental and child outcomes suggest that the effect of parental education is partly driven by assortative mating and may also be related to children s improved school performance

the impact of bank capital on profitability and risk in asian banking abstract this article applies the generalized method of moments technique for dynamic panels using bank level data for 42 asian countries over the period 1994 to 2008 to investigate the impacts of bank capital on profitability and risk ignoring influence factors the extant literature presents an ambiguous impact of bank capital on profitability risk however when the effects from the influencing factors are taken into consideration three conclusions are reached first along with the change in the categories of banks investment banks have the lowest and positive capital effect on profitability whereas commercial banks reveal the highest reverse capital effect on risk second banks in low income countries have a higher capital effect on profitability banks in lower middle income countries have the highest reverse capital effect on risk while banks in high income countries have the lowest values third banks in middle eastern countries own the highest and positive capital effect on profitability far east central asian banks have the largest reverse capital effect on risk while the lowest value occurs in middle eastern countries banks finally our results also reveal that persistence of profit is greatly affected by different profitability variables and all risk variables show persistence from one year to the next

banks non traditional activities under regulatory changes impact on risk performance and capital adequacy using the big six canadian chartered banks quarterly financial statements and daily stock market data from 1982 to 2018 we examine the impact of non interest income on canadian banks risk perfor

growth and poverty evidence for developing countries in the 1980s abstract measures of consumption poverty for a sample of developing countries in the 1980s respond elastically to changes in mean consumption although there is a high variance in poverty outcomes at a given rate of growth there is no sign of systematic effects of growth on inequality