financial development and the fdi growth nexus the malaysian experience this article examines the fdi growth nexus in the small open economy of malaysia by controlling for the level of financial development financial development is proxied by a composite index which is a summary measure of four financial development indicators using time series data from 1965 to 2004 the results show that fdi and financial development are positively related to output in the long run the impact of fdi on output is enhanced through financial development to supplement these findings we assess the causal relationships between the variables using the recent causality tests available in the literature the results indicate that economic growth causes fdi growth in the long run but no feedback relationship is observed

absorptive capacity and the effects of foreign direct investment and equity foreign portfolio investment on economic growth abstract this study examines the effects of foreign direct investment fdi and equity foreign portfolio investment efpi on economic growth using data on 80 countries from 1979 through 1998 the results largely suggest that lagged fdi and efpi do not have direct unmitigated positive effects on growth but some data are consistent with the view that the effects of fdi and efpi are contingent on the absorptive capacity of host countries with particular respect to financial or institutional development moreover extreme bound analysis eba of significant results indicates that the estimates are robust compared to other empirical studies on growth

does the preference reversal phenomenon necessarily contradict the independence axiom one of the most puzzling paradoxes in decision theory is the preference reversal phenomenon this phenomenon seems to contradict the transitivity axiom for a long time one of the cornerstones of utility theory this paradox is established whenever a decision maker prefers lottery x to lottery y but is willing to put a lower selling price on x than on y such experiments first reported by harold lindman 1971 and sarah lichtenstein and paul slovic 1971 were repeated by david grether and charles plott 1979 werner pommerehne et al 1982 and robert reilly 1982 although the later researchers improved the mechanism through which the selling price emerges they all found systematic reversals a new approach to this problem was developed by charles holt 1986 and edi karni and zvi safra 1987 from two different starting points these authors showed that the preference reversal phenomenon does not necessarily prove a violation of the transitivity axiom as it may contradict the independence axiom this implies that people do not maximize expected utility but in that case the preference reversal phenomenon becomes just another evidence against expected utility theory but not against the transitivity axiom these results have their own disadvantages although the independence axiom is not as fundamental as transitivity it is nevertheless very appealing on normative grounds of course the preference reversal phenomenon necessarily contradicts at least one of the assumptions of expected utility theory but empirical evidence shows that despite its normative appeal violations of the reduction of compound lotteries axiom may happen see for example joshua ronen 1971 and doug snowball and clif brown 1979 in this paper i therefore suggest a decision mechanism for the preference reversals lotteries which is transitive and satisfies the independence axiom but not the reduction axiom

thinking inside the box a closer look at financial inclusion and household income using national representative household finance survey data covering more than 6200 chinese households we first construct a new multidimensional indicator for financial inclusion then we examine the effect of financial inclusion on household income our results elicit several findings first financial inclusion has a strong positive effect on household income this effect can be found across all households with different levels of income second low income households are found to benefit more from financial inclusion than high and mid level income ones we argue that in this sense financial inclusion helps reduce income inequality

reduction of compound lotteries with objective probabilities theory and evidence abstract the reduction of compound lotteries axiom rocl has assumed a central role in the evaluation of behavior toward risk and uncertainty we present experimental evidence on its validity in the domain of objective probabilities our battery of lottery pairs includes simple one stage lotteries two stages compound lotteries and their actuarially equivalent one stage lotteries we find violations of rocl and that behavior is better characterized by a source dependent version of the rank dependent utility model rather than expected utility theory since we use the popular 1 in k random lottery incentive mechanism payment procedure in our main test our experiment explicitly recognizes the impact that this payment procedure may have on preferences thus we also collect data using the 1 in 1 payment procedure we do not infer any violations of rocl when subjects are only given one decision to make these results are supported by both structural estimation of latent preferences as well as non parametric analysis of choice patterns the random lottery incentive mechanism used as payment protocol itself induces an additional layer of compounding by design that might create confounds in tests of rocl therefore we provide a word of caution for experimenters interested in studying rocl for other purposes such as the relationship between ambiguity attitudes and attitudes toward compound lotteries to carefully think about the design to study rocl payment protocols and their interaction with the preferences being elicited

forward induction in the battle of the sexes games this paper provides experimental evidence on forward induction as a refinement criterion in the basic extensive form one of the two players chooses to play a battle of the sexes game or to receive a certain payoff according to forward induction choosing to play the game is a signal about intended action though the presence of the outside option changes play we find only limited support for the forward induction hypothesis the effects of the outside option also reflect the creation of a focal point through the asymmetry created by offering the outside option to one of the two players jel c72

financial development economic growth and banking sector controls evidence from india this paper uses newly collected data from the reserve bank of india to examine the effects of various types of banking sector controls on the process of financial deepening with the exception of a lending rate ceiling these controls are found to influence financial deepening negatively independently of the well known effect of the real interest rate exogeneity tests suggest that financial deepening and economic growth are jointly determined thus policies which affect financial deepening may also have an influence on economic growth the role of banking sector controls in the process of economic development has received considerable attention in the literature the traditional approach due to mckinnon i973 and shaw i973 postulates that government intervention in the pricing and allocation of loanable funds dubbed financial repression inhibits financial development by depressing real interest rates see

time varying discrete monetary policy reaction functions a novel dynamic ordered probit model with time varying parameters is proposed to estimate a monetary policy reaction function with narrative based monetary indicators the estimation and inference are carried out using the bayesian simulation based approach empirically these are the following findings first there is strong evidence in support that the central bank in taiwan responds counter cyclically to inflation but weaker if any evidence to economic growth secondly the persistence and consistence in policy making of the monetary authority is confirmed by the significance of the positive autoregressive coefficient although not all the estimates of the tvp dop model provide at least partial support of time varying parameters finally the results indicate that studies of the discrete monetary policy reaction functions without explicitly considering the possible dynamics inherent in the time series data and time variations in model parameters may be inappropriate if not incorrect

foreign direct investment and economic growth an increasingly endogenous relationship summary this paper investigates whether foreign direct investment fdi affects economic growth based on a panel of data for 84 countries over the period 1970 99 both single equation and simultaneous equation system techniques are applied to examine this relationship a significant endogenous relationship between fdi and economic growth is identified from the mid 1980s onwards fdi not only directly promotes economic growth by itself but also indirectly does so via its interaction terms the interaction of fdi with human capital exerts a strong positive effect on economic growth in developing countries while that of fdi with the technology gap has a significant negative impact

are saving and investment cointegrated the case of malaysia 1965 2003 this article examines whether domestic saving rate leads to higher domestic investment rate in the case of malaysia we argue that the results obtained from cross sectional studies are not able to address this issue satisfactorily and highlight the importance of individual country case studies using the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure the results reveal a robust cointegrated relationship between domestic saving and investment rates during the period 1965 to 2003

inflation thresholds and the finance growth nexus abstract the robustness of the cross sectional relationship between the size of a country s financial sector and its rate of economic growth is by now well established in this article we examine whether the strength of this relationship varies with the inflation rate using five year averages of standard measures of financial development inflation and growth for 84 countries from 1960 to 1995 a series of rolling panel regressions show that there is an inflation threshold for the finance growth relationship that lies between 13 and 25 percent when inflation exceeds the threshold finance ceases to increase economic growth we also find that the level of financial depth varies inversely with inflation in low inflation environments and that disinflation is associated with a positive effect of financial depth on growth

eliciting subjective probabilities with binary lotteries abstract we evaluate a binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior in a subjective belief elicitation task prior research has shown this procedure to robustly induce risk neutrality when subjects are given a single risk task defined over objective probabilities drawing a sample from the same subject population we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure also induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the quadratic scoring rule we also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation of subjective probabilities in subjects with popular non expected utility preference representations that satisfy weak conditions

a var approach to the economics of fdi in china using a vector autoregression var approach this study re examines several hypotheses suggested by the economic literature on the economics of fdi applying quarterly time series data from china a country which has recently become the second largest host country for fdi innovation accounting variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis is applied to analyse the various interrelationships between fdi and other economic variables of interest in a var system the empirical research using this method in the case of china is limited the study therefore provides an interesting advance in the literature on the economics of fdi in china

financial development and economic growth the case of taiwan this paper examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in taiwan from 1962 to 1998 using a four variable var model the competing hypotheses of demand following versus supply leading are empirically tested the results from granger causality tests based on vector error correction models vecm suggest unidirectional causality running from financial development measured as the ratio of m2 to gdp to economic growth this result supports the supply leading hypothesis for taiwan this finding highlights the importance of financial development in taiwan s recent growth

is growth corrupted or bureaucratic panel evidence from the enlarged eu abstractthis article aims at analysing the issue of conditional convergence in the new enlarged european union eu over the period 1995 2012 by means of panel data techniques we examined the issue of conditional convergence in the enlarged eu giving particular attention to the effects of corruption and bureaucracy on growth controlling for a widely used set of explanatory variables such as investment domestic and foreign human capital formation inflation general government final consumption and trade openness furthermore we examine if growth responds differently to corruption and bureaucracy in the new eu members by means of two group specific interaction variables to capture possible different responses to corruption and bureaucracy the analysis reveals evidence of conditional convergence in the enlarged eu with investment share foreign direct investment human capital and country openness appearing as robust growth drivers in contrast inflation and government consumption rather hamper gro

foreign trade regimes and the fdi growth nexus a case study of thailand this article examines the role of trade policy regimes in conditioning the impact of foreign direct investment fdi on growth performance in investment receiving host countries through a case study of thailand the methodology involves estimating a growth equation which provides for capturing the impact of fdi interactively with economic openness on economic growth using data for the period 1970 99 the results support the bhagwati hypothesis that other things being equal the growth impact of fdi tends to be greater under an export promotion ep trade regime compared to an import substitution is regime

experimental economics accounting and society in memory of john dickhaut abstract this volume consists of papers presented at a conference in memory of john dickhaut the conference sponsored by the economic science institute at chapman university focused on four areas of john s research interests during his career accounting and society methodology in experimental economics neural economics and trust and reciprocity all of the papers make novel interesting contributions to the study of human behavior in economic institutions and should interest readers in a range of fields including accounting anthropology economics finance neurology and psychology

trade wars trade negotiations and applied game theory what is the value of trade negotiations quantitative measures of the value of trade liberalisation generally ignore the strategic aspects of protection policy the traditional approach is to compare welfare levels under the existing structure of protection with welfare levels under some alternative structure of protection such as unilateral or multilateral free trade we add two additional questions first in a non cooperative context are either of these points of comparison consistent with countries adopting best response policies given the policies of other countries second in the context of a cooperative negotiation are either of these points of comparison consistent with the outcome that meets certain plausible criteria for a bargaining process if the answer to either of these questions is no then the traditional approach provides at best an incomplete answer to the original question and could provide a misleading answer a simple example illustrates our basic point consider the game in table i this is a non cooperative game between the united states and ec in which each agent has just two pure strategies to do nothing and keep k the existing structure of protection in place or to abolish a trade barriers on imports from the other agent only the payoffs shown are the annual welfare impact relative to the status quo as measured by the equivalent variation ev in income in billions of i973 u s dollars the values shown are taken from the simulation results of brown and whalley i980 table i 4 p 864 what is the best response of the united states in this context if the ec decides to keep its protection structure the united states does better by also keeping its protection structure intact in other words given that the ec plays k it is a best response for the united states to also play k thus the traditional approach would imply that the united states gains from protection in this case however what is the best response of the united states if the ec decides to abolish its protection structure in this instance the united states does best by also abolishing its protection structure the point here is simply that the welfare cost of protection to the united states depends on what the ec does without saying something about what the ec will do one cannot answer our question vis a vis the united states as it happens in this particular game we

does financial development lead economic growth a vector auto regression appraisal using a vector autoregression var approach several hypotheses are re examined suggested by the literature concerning the relationship between financial development and economic growth investment and productivity the models use quarterly time series data from ten oecd countries and china innovation accounting or variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis is applied to examine interrelationships between variables in the var system and therefore differs from the more usual granger causality approach in particular it examines the relationship between financial development proxied by total credit at best weak support is found for the hypothesis that financial development leads economic growth

a survey of recent developments in the literature of finance and growth this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of financial development and economic growth the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of financial development in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of finance on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies several key issues unresolved in the literature are highlighted the paper also points to several directions for future research

a marginal cost of funds approach to multi period public project evaluation implications for the social discount rate abstract although the use of marginal cost of funds mcf has been widely appreciated in public finance literature discussions of mcf have been confined to a static setting this paper develops a multi period project evaluation rule that is based on mcf unlike previous approaches the parameters required for implementing the mcf rule are independent of projects under consideration a lesson from this paper is that the government discount rate policies that are largely based on the concepts of social discount rate and shadow price of capital should be rewritten with the use of parameters representing mcf

foreign direct investment and endogenous growth in vietnam foregin direct investment s fdi s contribution to growth has been a controversial topic in economic literature and appears to be country specific in this article we use time varying coefficients in an augmented production function and let fdi indirectly affect gross domestic product growth through labour productivity this approach creates built in heteroskedasticity so the feasible generalized least square estimation is employed the results show that fdi has significant and positive effect on labour productivity and economic growth in vietnam but the effect is not equally distributed among economic sectors

inducing risk neutral preferences with binary lotteries a reconsideration abstract we evaluate the binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior we strip the experimental implementation down to bare bones taking care to avoid any potentially confounding assumptions about behavior having to be made in particular our evaluation does not rely on the assumed validity of any strategic equilibrium behavior or even the customary independence axiom we show that subjects sampled from our population are generally risk averse when lotteries are defined over monetary outcomes and that the binary lottery procedure does indeed induce a statistically significant shift toward risk neutrality this striking result generalizes to the case in which subjects make several lottery choices and one is selected for payment

anticipating costs and benefits and the social discount rate when the capital market is distorted social discount rates and required benefit cost ratios depend on the adjustments in capital stocks that are induced by undertaking a public project assuming that the government cannot set the taxes that induce individuals to choose the socially optimal consumption paths these adjustments are derived as individuals optimal consumption saving choices in a multiperiod framework social discount rates are shown to exceed the rate of substitution between consumption in two consecutive periods and to be closer to this rate the longer costs and benefits are anticipated the optimal timing of undertaking a project is also analyzed

reassessing the government s discount rate policy in light of new theory and data in a world economy with a high degree of capital mobility abstract the paper reexamines the government s discount rate policy in the context of new evidence on international capital mobility the relationship between deficits and interest rates the relationship between consumer interest rates and the consumer s rate of time preference and intergenerational compensation it concludes that the approximate discount rate for government decisions will differ depending on the policy problem and that the government s borrowing rate is appropriate in some cases and in others the private rate should be used for long term policies the benefit cost rationale for discounting breaks down and must be reestablished on principles incorporating intergenerational equity

managers investors and crises mutual fund strategies in emerging markets the authors address the trading strategies of mutual funds in emerging markets the data set they develop permits analyses of these strategies at the level of individual portfolios a methodologically novel feature of their analysis they disentangle the behavior of fund managers from that of investors for both managers and investors they strongly reject the null hypothesis of no momentum trading funds momentum trading is positive they systematically buy winners and sell losers contemporaneous momentum trading buying current winners and selling current losers is stronger during crises and stronger for fund investors than for fund managers lagged momentum trading buying past winners and selling past losers is stronger during noncrises and stronger for fund managers investors also engage in contagion trading selling assets from one country when asset prices fall in another these findings are based on data about mutual funds that represent only 10 percent of the market capitalization in the countries considered were it a larger share of the market finding counterparties for their trades the investors who buy when they sell and sell when they buy would be difficult and the premise that funds respond to contemporaneous returns rather than causing them would become tenuous

federal discount rate policy the shadow price of capital and challenges for reforms abstract this paper addresses the problem of determining discount rate policies that are both consistent with basic economic principles and implementable given real world constraints the paper first examines the discounting policies of the three federal oversight and budget agencies as they apply to public investment regulation lease purchase and asset divestiture decisions one prominent technique that has been suggested as a means of improving discounting policy the shadow price of capital approach is then considered in detail key aspects of its implementation are considered including the determination of program cost incidence rates of saving and reinvestment and proper aggregation of capital costs the analysis suggests that there are significant empirical challenges associated with this approach

theory and misbehavior of first price auctions recent experimental evidence appears to reject simple nash equilibrium models of bidding behavior in first price auctions the author presents a methodological critique of this evidence existing tests have concentrated on deviations of subjects from predictions in the message space of the action bid deviations the author suggests that it is more natural to evaluate subject behavior in expected payoff space he concludes that the evidence against the simple models is not significant enough to warrant their rejection copyright 1989 by american economic association

the choice of discount rates for public projects comment in a recent article in this review robert mendelsohn attempted to clarify david bradford s misunderstanding regarding optimal fraction of capital sk that is consumed and fraction of income that is reinvested sy one of the criteria suggested for selecting a public projects is the present value of the future consumption income from the investment as stated by mendelsohn the present value of dollar of investment is worth even more if future returns from that investment are reinvested p 240 the social present value of dollar of private investment v varies considerably with the parameters the market rate of interest r the social rate of time preference i and the rate of reinvestment sy however the impact of s on the present value v and its role in the selection process is not clear the variable sy is rather ambiguous and the optimum value in general for s is either zero or one the formula mentioned at the bottom of mendelsohn s table 1 p 240 should read

the role of foreign direct investment in china s post 1978 economic development abstract the evolution of china s policy toward foreign direct investment fdi during the post 1978 period is reviewed and the volume sources geographic distribution and composition of fdi are analyzed it is found that fdi has been positively associated with economic growth and the increase of total fixed asset investment in china foreign direct investment has also forced an increasing number of domestic manufacturers to compete globally it has also been associated with phenomena such as a the accelerating uneven development between the coastal and inland provinces b worsening income distribution and c declining ideological commitment while the opening of the chinese economy to fdi is still an ongoing process positive stimulating effects of foreign direct investment in china are observed and these are found to contribute toward the success of its recent economic reforms

foreign direct investment and growth in india a cointegration approach the two way link between foreign direct investment and growth for india is explored using a structural cointegration model with vector error correction mechanism the existence of two cointegrating vectors between gdp fdi the unit labour cost and the share of import duty in tax revenue is found which captures the long run relationship between fdi and gdp a parsimonious vector error correction model vecm is then estimated to find the short run dynamics of fdi and growth our vecm model reveals three important features a gdp in india is not granger caused by fdi the causality runs more from gdp to fdi b trade liberalization policy of the indian government had some positive short run impact on the fdi flow and c fdi tends to lower the unit labour cost suggesting that fdi in india is labour displacing

re investigating the electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in portugal in the previous decades a number of studies have been conducted to analyse the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the portuguese economy however the evidence remains controversial because the previous studies do not provide clear causality evidence this might be attributed to the omitted variables bias because most previous studies only focus on the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in a bi variate model this paper attempts to re investigate the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in portugal using a multivariate model based on the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the granger causality test within the vector error correction model vecm our empirical results confirm the presence of cointegration among the variables moreover there is evidence of bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in the short and long run this suggests that energy is an important source of economic growth in portugal therefore energy conservation policies should not be implemented because it would deteriorate the process of economic growth and development of the portuguese economy

controlling preferences for lotteries on units of experimental exchange in an experimental setting when outcomes are stochastically related to actions predictions of equilibrium behavior depend not only on the participants preference orderings of outcomes but also on their orderings of lotteries on outcomes as well we introduce and test a reward structure that can be utilized in any experimental setting to allow the experimenter to decree beforehand the subjects preferences for lotteries on experimental outcomes we show analytically that the proposed reward structure can induce subjects to behave as if they have the decreed preference function defined on experimental outcomes empirical tests using two different choice settings provide evidence to support this ability to control preferences

financial restraints in the south korean miracle abstract we provide novel empirical evidence on the effects of financial restraints on south korean financial development the evidence is linked to a simple model of the korean banking system that encapsulates its cartelised nature which predicts a positive association between financial development and i the degree of state control over the banking system ii mild repression of lending rates the model also predicts that in the presence of lending rate controls increases in the level of the administered deposit rate are unlikely to influence financial deepening we test the model empirically by constructing individual and summary measures of financial restraints our empirical findings are consistent with our theoretical predictions but contrast sharply with the predictions of earlier literature that postulates that interest rate ceilings and other financial restraints constitute sources of financial repression

banking crises regulation and growth the case of russia recent empirical analyses of the relationship between financial system development and economic growth find that financial system development causes economic growth is a good predictor of growth and that its impact is relatively large moreover the empirical literature predicts that the adverse effects of banking crises on economic growth will rise in the absence of an adequate response by the government hence given the russian government s failure to respond adequately to the 1998 banking crisis russia s strong economic growth since the crisis is a puzzle this study uses simulations to conclude that the growth costs of the 1998 crisis were larger than previously suggested the adverse effects were compensated by expansionary effects the findings corroborate the importance of financial development in promoting growth in transition countries

a more robust definition of subjective probability the goal of choice theoretic derivations of subjective probability is to separate a decisionmaker s underlying beliefs subjective probabilities of events from their preferences attitudes toward risk classical derivations have all relied upon some form of the marschak samuelson independence axiom or the savage sure thing principle which imply that preferences over lotteries conform to the expected utility hypothesis this paper presents a choice theoretic derivation of subjective probability in a savage type setting of purely subjective uncertainty which neither assumes nor implies that the decisionmaker s preferences over lotteries necessarily conform to the expected utility hypothesis copyright 1992 by the econometric society

a generalized approach to multigeneration project evaluation 1 introductionit is well known that the choice of discount rate plays a significant role in the ranking of projects with varying time paths of costs and benefits for public projects the choice of the appropriate social discount rate sdr is not clear cut even in the context of short lived projects in which costs and benefits occur within a single generation in particular when capital taxes produce a wedge between gross and net rates of return should one discount at the economy s rate of return the before tax rate or the individual s rate of return the after tax rate in the single generation context the literature falls in two camps 1 one camp argues that the appropriate sdr is a weighted average of the gross and net rates of return with weights typically determined by the fractions of resources drawn from consumption and private investment respectively 2 a second camp argues that future benefits should be discounted at the net rate of return but that the initial investment should be multiplied by a scale factor so that the direct costs of the project can be expressed in terms of consumption units 3both approaches suffer from severe implementation problems for the first approach there is no general formula for the weights needed to calculate the sdr as a weighted average of two market rates of return dreze 1974 indeed the appropriate sdr to use is project specific stiglitz 1982 without a systematic methodology to derive project specific sdrs the weighted average approach is hard to implement for the second approach which equalizes the sdr to the net rate of return the scale factor the opportunity cost of public investment must be quantified the opportunity cost of public investment depends on whether resources come from private investment or consumption and on the calculation of the present value of the future consumption yielded by a unit of capital discounted at the net rate of return that is the shadow price of capital as lind 1997 points out however there is no general agreement on a specific procedure for calculating the shadow price of capital indeed the concept of the opportunity cost of public investment suffers the same project dependence problem as the first view of the sdr diamond 1968 multigeneration projects such as nuclear waste disposal natural resource conservation or even social security reform further complicate discount rate choice specifically intergenerational equity in addition to intertemporal efficiency plays a role in determining the appropriate social discount rate for multigeneration public project evaluation 4 as in the single generation context there are two competing views on the appropriate discount rate when evaluating multigeneration projects the descriptive and the prescriptive approaches 5the descriptive approach to discounting is a market based approach it does not rely on an explicit social welfare function swf or the pure time preference rate embedded in the swf however the descriptive approach works under the assumption that intergenerational compensation through changes in the tax debt policy is available 6 it is argued that under appropriate intergenerational compensation the market rates of return are still relevant for calculating the sdr for multigeneration project evaluation and in general the sdr should be a weighted average of the gross and net rates of return this descriptive view of setting the sdr equal to the market return appears to underlie the office of management and budget s omb adoption of 7 as the appropriate discount rate for federal programs 7the intent of the prescriptive approach is to use the social discount rate as an expression of ethical judgment on how consumption of future generations should be compared to consumption of current generations

experimental development of sealed bid auction theory calibrating controls for risk aversion we offer a brief survey of bidding theory in high price auctions of experimental studies of behavior in such auctions and of the interplay between the design and results of the experiments and efforts to further develop the theory two new series of experiments are reported the first applies a convex transformation of payoffs in an attempt to induce a lowering of subject bids as if the bidders had become less risk averse the second applies a method for inducing any prespecified utility function for risky choices on an individual we use it to induce as if risk neutral behavior both series use baseline control to calibrate the hypothesized effect of the procedures on riskaverse behavior

labor market search an experimental study the theoretical results derived from models of economic search have implications which relate to the structure and performance of labor markets utilizing a series of laboratory experiments we attempt to capture many of the features of workers search and also the conditions under which labor markets operate by varying certain of the experimental conditions we are able to determine the searchers responses to changes in the terms of unemployment insurance to the existence of a minimum wage and to different states of information about the underlying distribution of wages in most cases the behavior of the searchers is consistent with that predicted by theory

do public investment and fdi crowd in or crowd out private domestic investment in malaysia motivated by the concern of a persistent decline in total investment in malaysia during the post crisis era this article examines the long run relationship between private domestic investment pdi public investment and foreign direct investment fdi in malaysia using multivariate cointegration techniques the results indicate a fairly robust cointegrated relationship between these variables during the period 1960 to 2003 both public investment and fdi are found to be complementary to rather than competing with pdi

gender differences in accepting and receiving requests for tasks with low promotability abstract gender differences in task allocations may sustain vertical gender segregation in labor markets we examine the allocation of a task that everyone prefers be completed by someone else writing a report serving on a committee etc and find evidence that women more than men volunteer are asked to volunteer and accept requests to volunteer for such tasks beliefs that women more than men say yes to tasks with low promotability appear as an important driver of these differences if women hold tasks that are less promotable than those held by men then women will progress more slowly in organizations jel i23 j16 j44 j71 m12 m51

financial liberalization financial sector development and growth evidence from malaysia abstract the objective of this paper is to examine whether financial development leads to economic growth or vice versa in the small open economy of malaysia using time series data from 1960 to 2001 we conduct cointegration and causality tests to assess the finance growth link by taking the real interest rate and financial repression into account the empirical evidence suggests that financial liberalization through removing the repressionist policies has a favorable effect in stimulating financial sector development financial depth and economic development are positively related but contrary to the conventional findings our results support robinson s view that output growth leads to higher financial depth in the long run

macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes this article studies forecasting a macroeconomic time series variable using a large number of predictors the predictors are summarized using a small number of indexes constructed by principal component analysis an approximate dynamic factor model serves as the statistical framework for the estimation of the indexes and construction of the forecasts the method is used to construct 6 12 and 24 monthahead forecasts for eight monthly u s macroeconomic time series using 215 predictors in simulated real time from 1970 through 1998 during this sample period these new forecasts outperformed univariate autoregressions small vector autoregressions and leading indicator models

financial development and economic growth views and agenda this critique argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth the body of work would push even most skeptics toward the belief that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sideshow responding passively to economic growth many gaps remain however and the paper highlights areas in acute need of additional research