do macroforecasters herd we show that typical tests of whether forecasters herd will falsely indicate herding behaviour for a variety of types of behaviour and forecasting environments that give rise to disagreement amongst forecasters we establish that forecasters will appear to herd if di erences between them reject noise as opposed to private information or if they arise from informational rigidities noise can have a behavioural interpretation and if so will depend on the behavioural model under consideration an application of the herding tests to us quarterly survey forecasts of inflation and output growth data 1981 2013 does not support herding behaviour

an evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve a pooled approach the federal reserve greenbook forecasts of real gdp inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974 to 1997 we consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic bias and whether efficient use is made of information that is whether revisions to these forecasts over time are predictable rather than analyse the forecasts separately for each horizon of interest we discuss and implement methods that pool information over horizons we conclude that there is evidence of systematic bias and of forecast smoothing of the inflation forecasts

the role of price and nonprice factors in predicting australia s trade performance this article investigates the role of price and nonprice factors in predicting australia s trade performance results broadly suggest that australia s trade performance is largely explained by the

productivity gains from rice genetic enhancements in west africa countries and ecologies abstract many critics claim that public research in west africa has failed to develop technological innovations to improve productivity and stimulate economic development in the agricultural sector using griliches method of estimating the impact of a research induced supply shift this study finds that rice varietal improvement generated a producer surplus gain of approximately us 360 million in 1998 in the seven most important rice producing countries of west africa eighty one percent of this gain has occurred in the irrigated and rainfed lowland ecologies which occupy just 12 and 35 of total regional rice area respectively by contrast approximately us 5 6 million is invested annually in regional varietal improvement research

daily house price indexes construction modeling and longer run predictions we construct daily house price indexes for ten major u s metropolitan areas our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat sales method that closely mimics the procedure used in the construction of the popular monthly case shiller house price indexes our new daily house price indexes exhibit similar characteristics to other daily asset prices with mild autocorrelation and strong conditional heteroskedasticity which are well described by a relatively simple multivariate garch type model the sample and model implied correlations across house price index returns are low at the daily frequency but rise monotonically with the return horizon and are all commensurate with existing empirical evidence for the existing monthly and quarterly house price series a simple model of daily house price index returns produces forecasts of monthly house price changes that are superior to various alternative forecast procedures based on lower frequency data underscoring the informational advantages of our new more finely sampled daily price series

strategic behavior of federal open market committee board members evidence from members forecasts abstract in this paper we use panel data to test whether federal open market committee fomc board members forecasts are rational rationality is rejected in the sense that forecasts by members are heavily dependent on previous own forecasts and last consensus made in fomc furthermore we reveal the strategic behavior of fomc board members forecasts by governors who always have voting rights agree much with the previous consensus of fomc members forecasts in contrast non governors who rotate voting rights exaggerate their forecasts they aggressively deviate their forecasts from previous consensus the former is herding behavior and the latter is anti herding behavior our results imply that individual members behave strategically governors want to present policy consistent forecasts to the congress and non governors utilize their forecasts to influence decision making in fomc

explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents forecasts a comparison of the point forecasts and the probability distributions of inflation and output growth made by individual respondents to the us survey of professional forecasters indicates that the two sets of forecasts are sometimes inconsistent we evaluate a number of possible explanations and find that not all forecasters update their histogram forecasts as new information arrives this is supported by the finding that the point forecasts are more accurate than the histograms in terms of first moment prediction c 2009 elsevier b v all rights reserved

differential interpretation in the survey of professional forecasters in this paper i estimate a simple bayesian learning model to expectations data from the survey of professional forecasters i reformulate the model in terms of forecast revisions which allows one to abstract from differences in priors and to focus the analysis on the relationship between news and revisions the empirical analysis shows that there is significant heterogeneity in the interpretation of news among forecasters in particular at longer horizons while it decreases closer to the forecast target date the results also indicate a positive relationship between prior sentiment and interpretation of the signal in the sense that relatively optimistic pessimistic forecasters are likely to believe that the signal under over estimates the future realization and assign it a low high weight in the forecast revision

accuracy and efficiency in the u s department of energy s short term supply forecasts one step ahead forecasts of quarterly crude oil natural gas electricity and coal supplies are evaluated under two general approaches accuracy based measures and classification or directional based measures results suggest the u s department of energy doe supply forecasts for u s domestic energy products are generally more accurate than a naive alternative there is only limited evidence of bias and inefficiency in the forecasts although there is some evidence of error repetition directional forecasts for supply changes are statistically better than random but they generally do not outperform a naive forecast

strategy switching in the japanese stock market abstract this paper investigates the expectation formation process of japanese stock market professionals by utilizing a monthly forecast survey dataset on the topix distributed by quick corporation we sort forecasters into buy side and sell side professionals we empirically demonstrate that the buy side and sell side professionals use either fundamental or trend following strategies throughout their expectation formation processes and that they switch between fundamental and trend following strategies over time we also discuss that strategy switching can be key in understanding the persistent deviation of the topix from the fundamentals

are professional macroeconomic forecasters able to do better than forecasting trends this paper investigates whether survey forecasters are able to make more accurate forecasts than simply supposing that the future values of the variable will move monotonically to the long run expectation we consider the forecasts individually and the consensus forecasts consensus survey forecasts are able to do so to varying degrees depending on the variable but this ability is largely limited to forecasts of the current quarter

a household hedonic model of rice traits economic values from farmers in west africa abstract new crop varieties often have been promoted in developing countries based upon superior yield vis a vis locally available varieties this research presents a hedonic price model for upland rice by drawing upon the input characteristics and consumer good characteristics model literature model specification tests determine that a combination of production and consumption characteristics best explains the willingness to pay for new upland rice varieties the household model specification determined that five traits explain the willingness to pay for new rice varieties plant cycle length plant height grain colour elongation swelling and tenderness yield was not a significant explanatory variable of the willingness to pay for seed the implications of this model are two fold first varietal development and promotion must include post harvest characteristics in addition to production traits when determining which varieties to promote for official release secondly non yield production characteristics such as plant height and cycle length are significant factors in producer s assessments of the value of a new variety overall this paper provides an alternative explanation for limited adoption of modern upland rice varieties in west africa varietal evaluation programs have focused too narrowly on yield evaluation and have not promoted varieties with superior non yield characteristics than locally available varieties

forecasting efficiency concepts and applications this article introduces the concept of forecast efficiency in which the forecast contains all information available at the time of the forecast empirical tests investigate weak efficiency where the information set is all past forecasts and where all forecast revisions and errors should be uncorrelated with past forecast revisions tests of macroeconomic energy consumption and oil price forecasts find a significant autocorrelation of forecast revisions with fifty of fifty one tests showing positive correlation of forecast revisions as opposed to zero correlation consistent with forecast efficiency copyright 1987 by mit press

risk perception in psychology and economics abstract the concept of rationality has been basic to most economic analysis its content has been successively refined over the generations as applied to the static world of certainty it has turned out to be a weak hypothesis not easily refuted and therefore not very useful as an explanation though not literally a tautology but recent decades have seen the development of stronger versions applied to a world in which time and uncertainty are real among its most important manifestations have been criteria for consistency in allocation over time the expected utility hypothesis of behavior under uncertainty and what may be termed the bayesian hypothesis for learning that is the consistent use of conditional probabilities for changing beliefs on the basis of new information these hypotheses have been used widely in offering explanations of empirically observed behavior though as not infrequently in economics the theoretical development has gone much further than the empirical implementation these hypotheses have also been used increasingly in normative analysis as a component of benefit cost studies therefore frequently referred to as benefit risk studies the value of reducing mortality rates from diseases for example has been studied by assuming that choice of occupations is made inter alia by comparing wage differences with mortality differences

economic openness and green gdp since the early 1990s there have been several attempts to develop national income accounting systems which recognize the negative impacts of environmental degradation and income inequalities on economic welfare collectively these bgreenq gross domestic product gdp studies have generated a wealth of new time series data sets which can be used to reexamine the links between gdp and a host of factors commonly included in traditional economic growth models in this paper we develop models of green gdp growth and the gap between traditional and green gdp by using a panel data set from eight countries spanning 30 50 years in both the growth and gap models the effects of economic openness are tested we find strong and robust results suggesting a negative nonlinear correlation between openness and green gdp growth and a positive nonlinear correlation between openness and growth of the gap between traditional and green gdp while green gdp accounting systems are still in their infancy our paper nonetheless implies that once these more comprehensive measures are fully developed empirical models which explore factors contributing to the growth of economic welfare over time should be reexamined d 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

predictability of output growth and inflation a multi horizon survey approach we develop an unobserved components approach to study surveys of forecasts containing multiple forecast horizons under the assumption that forecasters optimally update their beliefs about past current and future state variables as new information arrives we use our model to extract information on the degree of predictability of the state variable and the importance of measurement errors in the observables empirical estimates of the model are obtained using survey forecasts of annual gdp growth and inflation in the united states with forecast horizons ranging from 1 to 24 months and the model is found to closely match the joint realization of forecast errors at different horizons our empirical results suggest that professional forecasters face severe measurement error problems for gdp growth in real time while this is much less of a problem for inflation moreover inflation exhibits greater persistence and thus is predictable at longer horizons than gdp growth and the persistent component of bot

financial markets forecasts revisited are they rational stubborn or jumpy this paper evaluates professional forecasters behavior using a panel data of individual forecasts we find that i professional forecasts are behavioral and ii there exists a stock bond dissonance the forecasting behavior seems to be stubborn in the stock market but jumpy in the bond market even in the same country forecasting behavior is quite different by market

how trade and foreign investment affect the growth of a small but not so open economy australia this article analyses the impact of trade and foreign investment on a small but not so open economy australia whose growth rate outpaced the majority of the oecd countries in the last decade we model five channels of outward orientation exports imports foreign direct investment foreign portfolio investment and other foreign investment a cointegrated vector autoregressive model complemented by a robust granger noncausality test is specified to identify permanent channels of outward orientation imports and direct investment are found to have a growth effect in the long run the effect of imports is almost three times that of direct investment

is the export led growth hypothesis valid for australia the relationship between exports and output is examined using australian annual data over the period 1900 1993 cointegration and causality testing fails to detect the existence of a long run or short run relationship between the two variables these results are explained by restoring to the structural time series modelling approach which shows that while the output series exhibits cyclical variation the exports series does not have this property it is concluded that the export led growth hypothesis is not valid for australia

using survey data to correct the bias in policy expectations extracted from fed funds futures many studies estimate risk premiums on federal funds futures to extract monetary policy expectations by assuming that average forecast errors of the expectations are zero or that survey forecasts are good proxies for the expectations these assumptions however may fail due to an unanticipated declining trend in the federal funds rate and to survey respondents strategic behavior consequently the premiums estimated under these assumptions may be biased we propose a new method to estimate the premiums and find that the premiums have been often negative since 2000 which is generally consistent with the negative betas observed in the 2000s

technical change in senegal s irrigated rice sector impact assessment under uncertainty abstract this paper addresses the prospects for technical change in the irrigated rice sector of senegal and measures ex ante the economic returns to recent research efforts in 1994 three new rice varieties were released to farmers in the senegal river valley srv the major irrigated rice region in senegal the productivity advantage of the new varieties is based primarily on early maturity which permits double cropping the seeds are also higher yielding than existing cultivars we use a conventional akino and hayami 1975 am j agric econ 57 1 10 partial equilibrium model adapted to the senegalese situation to assess the social benefits of research and compare those to its costs in calculating the internal rate of return irr to account for uncertainty regarding the future values of model variables we use simulation which allows us to generate a distribution of all possible outcomes of the irr we find that rice research is almost certain to have a very high payoff over the 1995 2004 period the expected value of the irr is calculated to be 121 per year with a 97 5 probability that it lies above annual capital costs of 18

directional accuracy forecasting error and the profitability of currency trading model based evidence three models the flexible price monetary model ppp and a univariate arima model are estimated for 45 currency pairs to find out if the profitability of forecasting based currency trading is more related to the ability of the underlying model to predict the direction of change than the magnitude of the forecasting error theoretical considerations show that a correct prediction of the direction of change is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for a profitable trade the results of the exercise indicate that profitability is more strongly correlated with directional accuracy than with the magnitude of the error

why do forecasters disagree lessons from the term structure of cross sectional dispersion abstract key sources of disagreement among economic forecasters are identified by using data on cross sectional dispersion in forecasters long and short run predictions of macroeconomic variables dispersion among forecasters is highest at long horizons where private information is of limited value and lower at short forecast horizons moreover differences in views persist through time such differences in opinion cannot be explained by differences in information sets our results indicate they stem from heterogeneity in priors or models differences in opinion move countercyclically with heterogeneity being strongest during recessions where forecasters appear to place greater weight on their prior beliefs

the economic and poverty impacts of maize research in west and central africa this article assembles the results of three multicountry surveys on variety performance and adoption patterns to measure the impacts of maize research in west and central africa from 1981 to 2005 and uses cost data since 1971 to compute social rates of return on public investments in maize research in the region adoption of modern varieties increased from less than 5 of the maize area in the 1970s to about 60 in 2005 yielding an aggregate rate of return on research and development r d investment of 43 the estimated number of people moved out of poverty through adoption of new maize varieties rose gradually in the 1980s to more than one million people per year since the mid 1990s over half of these impacts can be attributed to international maize research at iita and cimmyt the article concludes with a discussion of strategic options to enhance the impacts of maize research in the region

forecasting urea prices abstractmanaging urea price risk is a concern of firms in the urea supply chain due to high price volatility and relatively slow transportation this study develops urea price forecasting models as a way to reduce price risk the forecasting models are evaluated based on multiple accuracy measures and compared to fertilizer week a commercial forecast an autoregressive model with exogenous variables arx using a window size of 48 months outperforms the other models no statistical difference exists between our best model and fertilizer week encompassing tests show that a combination model using the two models outperforms using fertilizer week forecasts alone a combined model using 66 8 of fertilzerweekand 33 2 of the arx brings about the minimum forecast error

impact of exchange rate uncertainty on commodity trade between us and sweden previous studies that investigated the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows of sweden employed aggregate trade data either between sweden and the rest of the world or at bilateral level between sweden and her major trading partners in this article we disaggregate the trade data and employ the import and export data from 87 industries that trade between sweden and the us we find that exchange rate volatility has significant short run effects on the trade flows between the two countries in almost two third of the industries however the short run effects are translated into the long run effects in one third of the cases furthermore the real depreciation of krona against the dollar was found to have favourable effects on the overall trade balance between the two countries

the value of public information in storable commodity markets application to the soybean market this article provides a framework to estimate the potential effects and benefits of the provision of market information in storable commodity markets this framework is applied to the case of production forecasts for the soybean market a rational expectations storage model of the global soybean market accounting for both inter annual and intra annual market dynamics is built shocks that occur between planting and harvesting affect the size of the potential harvest estimates of the size of these shocks are reported publicly and affect the market equilibrium through adjustments to stock levels by varying counterfactually the observability of seasonal shocks we can estimate the efficiency gains related to the availability of advance information they are equivalent to 2 of storage costs the reduction of stock levels being the main channel explaining the welfare gains the presence of advance information has a limited effect on inter annual price volatility but redistributes price volatility during the season increasing it just before harvest when almost all news has been received and stocks are tight and decreasing it after harvest the effect of news shocks is stronger on higher order moments of the distribution with a strong decrease in skewness and kurtosis related to the lower frequency of price spikes

expectation formation following large unexpected shocks abstract by matching a large database of individual macroforecaster data with the universe of sizable natural disasters across 54 countries we identify a set of new stylized facts forecasters are

trends and cycles in macroeconomic time series two structural time series models for annual observations are constructed in terms of trend cycle and irregular components the models are then estimated via the kalman filter using data on five u s macroeconomic time series the results provide some interesting insights into the dynamic structure of the series particularly with respect to cyclical behavior at the same time they illustrate the development of a model selection strategy for structural time series models

rising trends and variability of rice prices threats and opportunities for sub saharan africa abstract nearly 40 of the rice consumed in africa is imported that is about one third of all rice traded in world markets with such high dependence on imports africa is highly exposed to international market shocks with sometimes grave consequences for its food security and political stability as attested by events during the 2008 food crisis in this paper it is argued that africa can turn the rising trends in world markets to a historical opportunity to realize its large potential for rice production after a review of the policy responses of african countries to the 2008 global rice crisis the opportunities and challenges for enhancing domestic rice supply are discussed the competitiveness of rice production in africa is analyzed for selected countries and rice ecologies the potential for increasing paddy production is illustrated using a spreadsheet simulation that considers alternative rice sector development scenarios reducing the yield gap and expanding cultivated rice areas under lowland and irrigated hold the greatest potential for substantially increasing paddy production in africa

the j curve and nafta evidence from commodity trade between the us and mexico the north american free trade agreement nafta was predicted to have a substantial impact on the us mexico trade especially on specific importing and exporting industries in this article we use annual industry level export and import data from 1962 to 2004 to discern both the short and long run effects of real exchange rate depreciation on the mexico us trade balance as well as the effects of nafta on this trade we find that peso depreciation has a positive long run effect on 24 of 102 mexican industries and a negative short run effect on 19 of 102 industries only a small fraction 7 of 102 industries show any support for the j curve hypothesis nafta has had a significant effect on a significant number of the industries however

macro economic forecasting and modelling confidence in macro economic forecasting has periodically been punctured by episodes of economic turbulence and concomitant predictive failure the poor performance in predicting the consumer boom in the late i98os and the depth and duration of the recession in the i99os can be viewed as merely the latest examples in a catalogue of failures with noteworthy antecedents including the under prediction of post war consumption and the i974 5 and i979 81 recessions periods of economic turbulence may be informative in highlighting model inadequacy but they also being into question the usefulness of economic forecasting 2 should we be surprised that such failures have occurred econometric theory comprises a body of tools and techniques for analysing the properties of prospective methods under hypothetical states of nature in the forecasting context the methods are forecasting models and procedures and the states of nature relate to the properties of the variables to be forecast for an econometric theory of forecasting to be useful in terms of delivering relevant conclusions about empirical forecasting those states must adequately capture thfie appropriate aspects of the real world to be forecast however the traditional text book theory of economic forecasting fails to allow for a number of vital features of the economy in particular analyses of forecasting have usually been based on assumptions that implicitly rule out structural change or regime shifts in the economy namely i a constant time invariant data generating process dgp 2 a stationary non integrated dgp 3 a unique model of the economy which coincides with the dgp under these assumptions particularly i and 3 forecasts calculated as the conditional expectation given the model are optimal in the sense that they are unbiased and efficient any other forecast will have a larger forecast error variance by definition if the model is the dgp then the expected future value of the variable given all information available at the present time is the conditional expectation with respect to the model in general forecasts are not financial support from the uk economic and social research council under grant rooo233447 is gratefully acknowledged by both authors neil ericsson provided many helpful comments on an earlier draft 1 spanos i989 considers the contemporary predictive failure of aggregate consumption functions over 1945 51 arguing that model mis specification played a role wallis i989 discusses the forecasting record of the major uk model based forecasting teams for the i974 5 and i979 8i recessions

rationality and seasonality evidence from inflation forecasts abstract we examine the seasonal pattern in expectations using a unique israeli survey of quarterly inflation forecasts rationality is rejected with respect to trivial information about calendar quarter seasonal bias is strongest at shorter horizons and in a low inflation environment

causality between export growth and industrial development empirial evidence from the nics abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between export growth and industrial development in eight newly industrializing countries nics results of sims causality test show that for most of the nics there is a strong bidirectional causality between the growth of exports and industrial development these findings support the export led growth strategy in that expansion in exports not only promote the growth of national income but also lead to structural transformation of the developing countries

exports growth and causality in developing countries abstract previous empirical studies have interpreted results in regressions of output variables on export variables as providing support for an export promotion development strategy such an interpretation is questionable since these regressions provide no means of determining the direction of causality this paper performs causality tests between exports and growth for 37 developing countries the results cast considerable doubt on the validity of the export promotion hypothesis

rationality and the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasting this paper examines the effects of judgemental adjustments on the rationality of macroeconomic forecasts published forecasts based on large scale models are rarely purely model based but often include extensive adjustments forecasters adjustments tend to improve forecast accuracy but there is no evidence of their impact on the rationality of forecasts using series of revisions to forecasts we find little evidence that published forecasts are excessively smooth in the nordhaus i 987 sense but intercept corrections do appear to reduce the variation over time in purely modelbased forecasts and to alter the underlying output inflation trade off implicit in the model there is a large literature on the rationality of forecasts and on the efficient use of information in forecasting equally it is now generally recognised that published forecasts are rarely based on the estimated model alone but that adjustments are often made to the model based predictions in arriving at a final forecast thus published forecasts reflect in varying degree the properties of the model and the skills of the model s proprietors while forecasters adjustments do appear to improve forecast accuracy see the work of the esrc

exports growth and causality in ldcs abstract using akaike s optimal lag criterion in a granger causality test the causal relationship between export growth and economic growth and vice versa is re examined for 20 countries it is argued that earlier analyses which ignore optimal lags in granger or sims causality tests suffer from certain shortcomings which are overcome by the present approach the results suggest some support for the export promotion hypothesis especially in the case of well known nics and thus differ from previous applications of granger test which did not adopt an optimum lag criterion and which showed no causality from export growth to economic growth in such cases however they are inconclusive in evaluating competing hypotheses

when are gdp forecasts updated evidence from a large international panel based on a large international panel of surveyed gdp forecasts i analyze the frequency of forecast revisions and the factors that influence the likelihood of forecast revisions i find that each month on average 40 50 of forecasters revise their forecasts in addition i find that the likelihood of forecast revisions significantly depends on a number of factors such as the forecast horizon the business cycle or strategic interactions between forecasters my results suggest that a realistic modeling of expectations forecasts of agents has to take into account cross sectional heterogeneity strategic interaction between agents and effects of the economic environment features that existing models such as the sticky information framework are missing

technological progress for sustaining food population balance achievement and challenges the growth in land productivity in rice cultivation has slowed down substantially since the early 1990s due to technological progress reaching its limit in the irrigated ecosystem and nonavailability of suitable technologies for the unfavorable rainfed environments this development raises concern regarding the world s ability to meet the food population balance in the coming decades rice research must deal with a number of difficult problems to meet the challenge raising the yield ceilings of the current available rice varieties protecting the past yield gains in the irrigated ecosystem and using biotechnology tools to develop high yielding varieties for the rainfed systems that are tolerant to drought submergence and problem soils the speed and extent of meeting these challenges depends on the level of resources that can be mobilized to support crop improvement research in the public sector

when do the usda forecasters make mistakes this study analysed forecasts for all us corn soya bean and wheat categories published within the world agricultural supply and demand estimates wasde reports over the 1987 88 through 2009 10 marketing years in an attempt to identify patterns and better understand when the usda forecasters make mistakes two general sources of errors were investigated behavioural and macroeconomic factors the first objective was to examine how these factors affect the size of the forecast error and the second concentrated on the direction of the error due to these effects our findings suggest that the largest increase in the size of usda forecast errors was associated with structural changes in commodity markets that took place in the mid 2000s corn soya bean and wheat forecast errors also grew during the periods of economic growth and with changes in exchange rates while inflation and changes in oil price had a much smaller impact with respect to behavioural sources we identified patterns consistent with leni

multivariate forecasting of a commodity portfolio application to cattle feeding margins and risk traditionally economists have utilized univariate approaches to forecast prices even for firms operating in multicommodity environments this research improves the way in which managerial decision making is analysed by developing a model better representing the price risks and opportunities faced by firms that produce using a portfolio of commodities using the situation of cattle feedlot investors and managers as an example this is accomplished by recognizing the multivariate live cattle feeder cattle and corn prices situation that feedlots operate in and employing corresponding multivariate simulation techniques evaluation suggests that properly modelling the cattle feeding margin as a multivariate set of prices significantly improves the accuracy of forecasting future feeding margin values realized in the cash market the model also suggests incorporating both implied and historical time varying volatility information when forecasting margin variability implications for other multicommodity sit

forecasting the ecb s main refinancing rate a field experiment abstract when no appropriate markets to derive expectations on economic variables are available surveying methods are often employed however surveys suffer from the problem of how to aggregate individual expectations in a reasonable manner we show at the example of a market on the ecb s main refinancing rate that experimental markets aggregate information quite efficiently and thus are a useful tool in this respect

trade orientation and macroeconomic performance in ldcs an empirical study there exist several cross country studies that seek to establish the superiority of export oriented policies eops over import substitution policies isps with few exceptions these studies use growth rates of exports as proxies for trade policies on the assumption that eops lead to higher rates of export growth 2 a positive correlation between export growth and output growth is then interpreted as evidence of the superiority of eops over isps in studies using a production function framework a positive association between export growth sometimes weighted by export shares and output growth is taken to imply a positive contribution of eops to growth of total factor productivity 3 while results of these studies are frequently cited in the literature j bhagwati has pointed out that they do not bear directly on the question whether the ep export promotion strategy is productive of more growth because the incentive related ep strategy is not the one used to examine the question of income or growth performance it is necessary to identify whether the superior export growth rates or higher export magnitudes belong to the ep countries 4 it should be pointed out here that cross country studies occasionally do refer to evidence in support of their use of export growth rates as proxies for trade policies one such study by j b donges and j riedel based on a time series analysis of 12 countries found partial support for such a relationship in four of the countries the shift toward eop was attended by a decline in the trend rate of export growth and for a fifth country the positive shift in export growth was statistically insignificant 5 similar results were obtained by b balassa for an overlapping group of countries 6 while these studies suggest a connection between trade policies and export growth over time for individual countries they do not constitute evidence of such a connection across

how quickly do forecasters incorporate news evidence from cross country surveys using forecasts from consensus economics inc we provide evidence on the efficiency of real gdp growth forecasts by testing whether forecast revisions are uncorrelated as the forecast data used are multi dimensional 18 countries 24 monthly forecasts for the current and the following year and 16 target years the panel estimation takes into account the complex structure of the variance covariance matrix due to propagation of shocks across countries and economic linkages among them efficiency is rejected for all 18 countries forecast revisions show a high degree of serial correlation we then develop a framework for characterizing the nature of the inefficiency in forecasts for a smaller set of countries the g 7 we estimate a var model on forecast revisions the degree of inefficiency as mananifested in the serial correlation of forecast revisions tends to be smaller in forecasts of the usa than in forecasts for european countries our framework also shows that one of the sources of the inefficiency in a country s forecasts is resistance to utilizing foreign news thus the quality of forecasts for many of these countries can be significantly improved if forecasters pay more attention to news originating from outside their respective countries this is particularly the case for canadian and french forecasts which would gain by paying greater attention than they do to news from the usa and germany respectively

manufacturing exports mining exports and growth cointegration and causality analysis for chile 1960 2001 this study examines the export led growth hypothesis using annual time series data from chile in a production function framework it addresses the problem of specification bias under which previous studies have suffered and focuses on the impact of manufactured and mining exports on productivity growth in order to investigate if and how manufactured and mining exports affect economic growth via increases in productivity the study uses johansen cointegration technique the estimation results can be interpreted as evidence of productivity enhancing effects of manufactured exports and of productivity limiting effects of mining exports

the j curve evidence from commodity trade between uk and china in testing the short run j curve effect and the long run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance many researchers have used either trade data between one country and the rest of the world or between one country and another trading partner both groups are said to suffer from aggregation bias to reduce the bias in this article we consider trade data between one country the us and her trading partner china disaggregated by commodity we use imports and exports of 88 industries 2 digit and 3 digit classifications and cointegration analysis to show that the trade balance of at least 34 of the industries react favourably to real depreciation of the dollar the j curve effect is detected in 22 industries furthermore most of these industries that are sensitive to currency depreciation are durable commodity groupings

can rational stubbornness explain forecast biases this paper examines whether the rational jumpiness stubbornness hypothesis can explain forecast biases using a dataset of professional gdp forecasts for the g7 countries over the period 1989 2010 we find evidence supporting the rational stubbornness hypothesis specifically forecasters underreact more when large forecast revisions are highly indicative of low forecast ability underreaction is less likely when the size of forecast revisions is unrelated to ability these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that forecasters choose to smooth gdp forecasts to maximize their perceived ability

evaluating the efficiency of the fomc s new economic projections since 2007 fomc policymakers have been publishing detailed numerical projections of macroeconomic series over the next three years by testing whether the revisions to these projections are unpredictable i find that fomc s efficiency is generally accepted for inflation but often rejected for real economic variables notably for the unemployment rate the rejection is due to the strong autocorrelation of revisions which may reflect information rigidity of fomc s unemployment projections the joint efficiency of the entire projection is accepted in most cases

are revisions to usda crop production forecasts smoothed this article uses nordhaus framework to determine the efficiency of the revision process for usda corn and soybean production forecasts over the 1970 1971 through 2004 2005 marketing years positive autocorrelation and consistency of directional changes in forecast revisions suggest these forecasts are smoothed evidence is provided that the loss in forecast accuracy due to smoothing is statistically and economically significant in several cases a conservative bias in farm operators assessments of yield potential and in the procedure for translating enumerator s information about plant fruit counts into objective yield estimates are identified as plausible sources of smoothing

political biases despite external expert participation an empirical analysis of tax revenue forecasts in germany this paper explores whether and how political biases arise in an institutional setting where revenue forecasting is delegated to a body that includes experts from institutions neither part of nor controlled by the government the empirical analysis focuses on the performance of german federal tax revenue forecasts in the preparation of which the advice of external experts has a long tradition as an institutional safeguard while on average revenue forecasts turn out to be unbiased the results show that the government exerts an influence in particular optimism pessimism in the government s gdp forecast helps to explain why the revenue forecast turns out too optimistic pessimistic in addition governmental estimates of the revenue effects of tax law changes are found to contribute to forecast errors

perceived inflation persistence this article constructs and estimates a measure called perceived inflation persistence that can be used to determine if professional forecasters inflation forecasts indicate there has been a change in inflation persistence this measure is built via the implied autocorrelation function that follows from the estimates obtained using a forecaster specific state space model findings indicate that u s perceived inflation persistence has changed since the mid 1990s with more consensus among forecasters at lower levels of persistence when compared to the autocorrelation function for actual inflation forecasters typically react less to shocks to inflation than the actual inflation data would suggest

on the impact of trade openness on growth further evidence from oecd countries this study attempts to examine empirically the implications of the degree of openness for total and individual factor productivity growth in a group of 19 oecd countries over the last three decades the study combines both time series and cross sectional data the model employed is a generalization of the commonly used growth accounting model based on the concept of an aggregate production function in which the rate of economic growth is a function of capital and labour accumulation and total factor productivity it is explicitly assumed that total factor productivity depends in turn upon the rate of export expansion the model is then estimated using the random coefficients approach while results generally indicate that the relative importance of trade openness on economic growth varies significantly across countries they also indicate that the role of capital and labour accumulation in fostering economic growth varies with the degree of openness cross sectionally as well as across time

updates to household inflation expectations signal or noise abstract using data from the new york fed s survey of consumer expectations we examine the information content of the updates to household inflation expectations we find that although consumers frequently revise their expectations the adjustments are largely uninformative