the timing of uncertainty shocks in a small open economy abstract foreign measures of uncertainty such as the us epu index are often used as a proxies for domestic uncertainty in small open economies we construct an epu index for sweden and demonstrate that shocks to the domestic index yield different impulse response functions for gdp growth than shocks to the us index in particular a one standard deviation shock to the swedish index delivers its maximum impact in the same quarter lowering gdp growth by slightly less than 0 2 percentage points in contrast a shock to the us index delivers its maximum impact with a one quarter delay other foreign proxies such as the european and german indices also generate effects that peak with a one quarter delay

the geography and causes of food insecurity in developing countries abstract at the 1996 world food summit 186 countries made a commitment to reduce the number of chronically undernourished people by half by 2015 in order to formulate effective policies for reaching this goal a thorough understanding of the location and causes of food insecurity is needed this paper provides a broad overview of the current character of food insecurity in developing countries focusing on two questions 1 why are they food insecure and 2 why are the food insecure to answer the latter question data from 58 developing countries with high prevalences of food insecurity are employed to examine the relative importance of two of food insecurity s most basic causes national food availability and the inability of people to access food due to poverty using child malnutrition as a proxy along with descriptive controls for non food determinants of malnutrition the paper finds little correlation between national food availabilities and food insecurity the group of countries that exhibit the highest severity of food insecurity are those with high poverty and food dietary energy surpluses consistent with the view that poverty is the most widespread cause of food insecurity in the 1990s the paper concludes by considering the implications of the analysis for appropriate geographical and policy targeting to improve food security for the greatest numbers of people at the fastest pace now and into the 21st century

nutrition and labor producvivity in agriculture estimates for rural south india using panel data for rural south india a fixed effects individual wage equation and farm production function are estimated that have calorie intake and nutritional status weight for height of workers as their arguments neither market wages nor farm output are observed to be responsive to changes in the daily energy intake of workers however both are highly elastic with respect to weight for height these results suggest that while the human body can adapt to inadequate nutrition in the short run it cannot adapt as readily to chronic malnutrition that eventually results in loss of weight for height copyright 1988 by mit press

the impact of primary schooling on economic development a review of the evidence abstract the contribution of primary schooling to economic development is greater than has conventionally been percieved this review of recent research shows that primary schooling increases labour productivity in both urban and rural sectors and that the economic returns to such investment are typically high in addition it reduces fertility improves health and nutrition and promotes other behavioural and attitudinal changes which are helpful to economic development investment strategies which give primary schooling an important place would be more conducive of growth with equity than many alternatives priorities for government and donor policies are indicated as are those for future research

buy as you need nutrition and food storage imperfections abstract in this paper we investigate whether and how a more steady supply of foodgrain in local markets impacts the nutritional status measured with body mass indexes of both children and adults in a context characterized by large seasonal fluctuations in the price and availability of foodgrain taking advantage of the random scaling up of a program of food security granaries in burkina faso we reach three conclusions first especially in remote areas where local markets are thin the program considerably dampens nutritional stress the effect is strongest among children and young children in particular for whom deficient nutrition has devastating long term consequences second we argue that it is a change in the timing of food purchases translated into a change in the timing of consumption that drives the nutritional improvement a simple two period model shows that once we account for various forms of storage costs an increase in nutrition does not necessarily require larger quantity of food purchases or even consumption our last and unexpected conclusion is that the losses associated with foodgrain storage do not stem from physical losses in household granaries but rather from inefficient seasonal bodymass fluctuations one plausible mechanism behind this particular storage imperfection rests on the households urge to consume readily available foodgrain

are estimates of calorie income fxelasticities too high a recalibration of the plausible range abstract the wide range of calorie income elasticities in the literature results in large part from the particular calorie and income variables used for estimation elasticities across four estimation techniques and four calorie income variable pairs for a sample of philippine farm households ranged from 0 03 to 0 59 estimates associated with calorie availability are biased upwards first because random errors in measuring food purchases are transmitted by construction both to calorie availability and total expenditures and second because the residual difference between family calorie intake and household calorie availability will often increase with income the calorie intake total expenditure variable pair gives the preferred elasticity estimate in the 0 08 0 14 range

productivity health and inequality in the intrahousehold distribution of food in low income countries a model is formulated incorporating linkages among nutrition labor market productivity health heterogeneity and the intrahousehold distribution of food and work activities in a subsistence economy empirical results based on a sample of households from bangladesh indicate that despite considerable intrahousehold disparities in calorie consumption households are averse to inequality furthermore consistent with the model the results also indicate that both the higher level and greater variance in the calories consumed by men relative to women reflect in part the greater participation by men in activities in which productivity is sensitive to health status copyright 1990 by american economic association

returns to education a further international update and implications this paper updates evidence on the returns to investment in education by adding estimates for new countries and refining existing estimates to bring the total number of country cases to over 60 the new cross country evidence confirms and reinforces earlier patterns namely that returns are highest for primary education the general curricula the education of women and countries with the lowest per capita income the findings have important implications for directing future investment in education which for efficiency and equity purposes should concentrate on these priority areas

nutrition labour productivity and labour supply of men and women in ghana ghana s population is expected to increase from 14 1 million in 1990 to 18 7 million in 2000 bumb et al 1994 this growth in population along with growth in per capita income and urbanisation will create increased demand for food before the launching of the economic reform programme in 1983 ghana s food production had fallen to an abysmally low level in response to the general deterioration in the economy output of food and cash crops declined at a rate of 0 3 percent per year between 1970 and 1980 cereal production which exceeded domestic demand by some 200 000 tonnes in 1971 73 registered a deficit of over 300 000 tonnes in 1981 83 production of starchy staples fell from 7 9 million tonnes to 4 1 million tonnes between 1974 and 1981 as a result of declining food output combined with a rising population per capita food availability in 1981 83 was 30 percent lower than it was in 1975 efforts made under the economic recovery programme have improved the food supply situation in the country although food production levels still remain low output levels of cocoyam and plantain have not reached their average levels in the early 1970 s table 9 1

joint determination of food consumption and production in rural sierra leone estimates of a household firm model abstract this paper investigates the determination of food consumption for rural households in sierra leone that produce the foods which they consume a household firm model is estimated with seven commodities including five foods non foods and labor as compared to three commodities in past studies such food disaggregation permits tracing of the effects of socioeconomic variables on household nutrient availability household specialization in production is such that censored data is a problem a tobit approach is used to correct for this for most crops the own price effects on consumption remain negative when a price change is allowed to shift the budget constraint by effecting the profits from home production elasticities of calorie availability with respect to toal expenditure are found to be sizeable varying little by expenditure group the price elasticities of calorie availability are generally positive however an important exception occurs for price of the staple food rice this exception has several important policy implications which are explored

human development means and ends from growth to basic needs sometimes the change in the fashions of thinking about development appears like a comedy of errors a lurching from one fad to another economic growth employment creation jobs and justice redistribution with growth basic needs bottom up development participatory development sustainable development market friendly development liberation liberalisation human development thus goes the carousel of the slogans but this would not be a correct record there has been an evolution in our thinking about development both internal logic and new evidence have led to the revision of our views previous and partly discarded approaches have taught us much that is still valuable and our current approach will surely be subject to criticisms a brief survey of the evolution of our thinking may be helpful the discussion started in the 1950s influenced by arthur lewis 1955 and others who emphasised economic growth as the key to poverty eradication even at this early stage sensible economists and development planners were quite clear in spite of what is now often said in caricature of past thought that economic growth is not an end in itself but a performance test of development arthur lewis defined the purpose of development as widening our range of choice exactly as the human development reports of the united nations development programme do today three justifications were given for the emphasis on growth as the principal performance test one justification assumed that through market forces such as the rising demand for labour rising productivity rising wages lower prices of the goods bought by the people economic growth would spread its benefits widely and speedily and that these benefits are best achieved through growth even in the early days some sceptics said that growth is not necessarily so benign they maintained that in certain conditions such as increasing returns restrictions to entry monopoly power unequal distribution of income and assets growth gives to those who already have it tends to concentrate income and wealth in the hands of the few this is where the second assumption came in it was that governments especially democratic ones are concerned with the fate of the poor therefore progressive taxation social services and other government interventions would

food aid and adult nutrition in rural ethiopia insight into the role of safety nets that contribute to adult nutrition is an important component to understanding the dynamics of poverty in developing countries this article uses panel data from rural ethiopia on individual nutritional status to test for an effect of public transfers on adult body mass index bmi results show that among adult household members male members are the primary beneficiaries of food aid as male and female aid recipients tend to invest aid receipts in male household members these results are consistent with a theory in which additional resources are allocated to members of the household whose market returns are higher or those who engage in activities that expend higher levels of energy for high asset households female household members benefit if the aid recipient is a female women in low asset households appear to be adversely affected by aid receipts and evidence suggests that women with little bargaining power suffer the most the results suggest that aid receipts are useful in mitigating fluctuations in adult bmi over a short time period

human capital and economic development abstract this paper develops a general equilibrium model of fertility and human capital investment with young adult mortality because young adult mortality is negatively related to average young adult human capital human capital accumulation lowers mortality inducing demographic transition and industrial revolution data confirm that young adult mortality is related negatively to schooling and the rate of return to schooling and positively to fertility the data indicate a negative relationship between tfp growth and schooling accumulation the model fits the data on country populations per capita incomes human capital total fertility rates infant mortality life expectancy and conditional life expectancy

energy intake and productivity of guatemalan sugarcane cutters an empirical test of the efficiency wage hypothesis part ii abstract this paper examines additional evidence of an empirical test of the productivity consumption relation of the efficiency wage hypothesis a cross sectional analysis showed sharply diminishing productivity returns to higher levels of daily energy intake of guatemalan sugarcane cutters no positive and consistent energy supplementation effect on the daily supply of work units could be demonstrated in a time series analysis energy supplementation did not have a delayed impact on worker productivity it is concluded that increased energy availability may not necessarily result in increased productivity of rural workers who are moderately energy deficient

poverty and illness in low income rural areas one of the oldest and most studied questions in development is whether the resource and environmental conditions faced by households in low income rural areas significantly affect productivity the reason for this interest is clear if productivity is significantly constrained by these factors then the returns to investment in the form of human capital are likely to be high and under certain conditions there may be scope for efficiency improving policies and programs given this motivation it may at first seem surprising that most of the existing literature focusing on the health productivity relationship concentrates on the effects of nutrition while nutrition is an important contributor to good health other components of health especially illness may also influence worker productivity moreover in contrast to the case of nutrition over which households have direct control illness is affected by exposure to pathogens something over which individual households may have little control this public aspect of illness makes an examination of the effects of illness on productivity particularly important from a policy perspective this distinction between the private nature of nutrition and the public nature of illness may at least in part be evident in tables 1 and 2 these tables present the distribution of illness and calories respectively by wealth quartiles in three asian countries what is most striking about these tables is the fact that despite clear evidence that calories are importantly associated with wealth in at least two of the countries bangladesh and pakistan there is little systematic relationship between illness and wealth in any of the countries for example in bangladesh the top quartile in terms of wealth of the population of men and women consumes 6 percent and 8 percent more calories respectively than the lowest quartile by contrast bangladeshi males in the upper quartile experience 19 percent more days ill over the same period than do those in the lower quartile the figures for the women are identical there are several possible reasons for this pattern as suggested earlier one possibility is that households have little control over their exposure to illness if this is the case then one might well conclude that the distributional effects of illness are quite limited a second plausible explanation is that illness is measured or reported differently for better off households for example a better off individual who is generally healthy may be more readily able to identify when he or she is ill than a poor individual with low caloric intake moreover to the extent that illness is measured as an alternative to work as is the case for the pakistani data set a wealthier individual may be more willing to skip work on a day that he or she is ill if this latter point is true then the distributional consequences of illness could be quite important despite what is evident in table 1 2 in this paper i address these and other related issues using two of the longitudinal data sets from rural asia from which these tables were derived in the first section of

market structure and the effectiveness of monetary policy a cross industry study empirical rejections of the strong form of the new classical macroeconomics at the aggregate economy level leave open the extent to which it is the rational expectations or short run market clearin

high quality nutrition in childhood body size and wages in early adulthood evidence from guatemalan workers espanolcausalidad entre salud y productividad no resulta directa de establecer por un lado mayores ingresos pueden trasladarse en una dieta de mejor calidad por el otro es probable que un trabajador saludable sea mas productivo este trabajo analiza el efecto del tamano corporal altura e indice de masa corporal como indicadores de nutricion en salarios los datos provienen del estudio longitudinal realizado en guatemala entre 1969 77 y 2002 04 estimaciones sugieren que la elasticidad tamano del cuerpo en relacion al salario aumenta cuando la heterogeneidad no observable es considerada sin embargo los resultados son mas robustos para los hombres adicionalmente la elasticidad estimada presenta algun grado de disparidad entre quantiles de la distribucion condicional del salario englishestablishing a causal relationship between health and productivity is not straightforward on one hand as income grows people invest in better diets on the other a healthier worker is likely to be more productive this paper focuses on the effect of body size height and body mass index as indicators of nutrition upon wages data comes from a longitudinal study conducted in guatemala during 1969 77 and followed up in 2002 04 body size elasticity increases when unobserved heterogeneity is considered although evidence is stronger for males additionally estimated elasticity shows some degree of heterogeneity at different quantiles of the conditional wage distribution

does better nutrition raise farm productivity household level data from sierra leone are used to test whether higher caloric intake enhances family farm labor productivity this is the notion behind the efficiency wages hypothesis which has found only weak empirical support a farm production function is estimated accounting for the simultaneity in input and calorie choice instruments include prices household demographic characteristics and farm assets the latter two sets of instruments are later dropped to explore the robustness of the results to different specifications of exogeneity the exercise shows a highly significant effect of caloric intake on labor productivity providing solid support for the nutrition productivity hypothesis the marginal effect on productivity falls drastically as calorie consumption rises but remains positive at moderately high levels of intake one result is a fall in the effective price of food a decline that is larger for households that consumer fewer calories

exports investment and policy uncertainty building on a literature that underscores the value of delaying investment in the face of uncertainty we study how policy uncertainty in 18 large economies affects exports to these economies we decompose aggregate bilateral trade flows from 1995 to 2013 into intensive and extensive margin components and employ a gravity specification to assess the impact of policy uncertainty on each margin separately consistent with theory increases in policy uncertainty decrease both trade values and the extensive margin but if anything increase the intensive margin in further tests we use various proxies for sunk export costs and demonstrate that the effects of policy uncertainty are more pronounced where sunk costs are higher

the economic rationale for investing in nutrition in developing countries abstract studies of experimental and socioeconomic survey data on the direct productivity effects of nutrition indicate growing though qualified evidence of positive direct effects of nutrition on labor productivity of poorer individuals in developing countries greater productivity effects for nutrition than for formal schooling studies on the indirect productivity effects of nutrition through cognitive achievement schooling and preschool ability also indicate positive productivity effects through these channels therefore for productivity reasons alone policies that favor better nutrition among the poorer members of society merit serious consideration that productivity and equity concerns are in harmony is an important plus

the impact of farmers health and nutritional status on their productivity and efficiency evidence from ethiopia this article focuses on the link between agricultural productivity and health and nutrition status of peasants in ethiopia the data come from the first round of the ethiopian rural household survey conducted in 1994 the sites selected were those in which farmers practice ox plow cultivation of cereals a stochastic frontier approach was adopted for the agricultural production the findings of the study show that the distance to the source of water as well as nutrition and morbidity status affect agricultural productivity the market wage rate is also very responsive to the weight for height as well as the body mass index and height in a context where separability between consumption and production decisions of the household is rejected elasticities of labor productivity with respect to nutritional status are noted to be strong and similar in technology estimates and wage equations moreover returns to investment in nutrition are clearly high in the ethiopian context overall the results indicate substantial loss in output due to technical inefficiency even after accounting for the health and nutrition of workers

the intrahousehold demand for nutrients in rural south india individual estimates fixed effects and permanent income good estimates of nutrient intake responses to prices and income are very useful for the evaluation of the numerous efforts to improve nutrition in many developing countries through pricesubsidy and income generation policies we discuss three problems in standard estimates of these responses and then illustrate their implications for nutrient demand relations for a poor sample from rural south india 1 intra household nutrient allocations usually are ignored in this case nutrient intakes for females systematically have algebraically lower price elasticities than do those for males which may leave the females particularly vulnerable at times of food shortages 2 unobserved fixed effects may bias the estimates of responses to observed variables in this case not only the community fixed effects on which the previous literature has focused but also household and individual fixed effects are important failure to control for them results in substantial algebraically upward biases in many estimated price responses 3 most previous studies use current instead of permanent income which a priori may account for the low estimated income elasticities in this case however the use of permanent income does not change the conclusion that the nutrient intakes responses to income are quite small

the effects of human capital on wages and the determinants of labor supply in a developing country abstract the heckman procedure is used to correct for sample selection bias in estimating wage offer and net labor market supply equations the findings show that wages are affected by education and experience in addition the wage offer is influenced by other genetic and environmental influences captured in the wage of one s father calories as predicted by exogenous instruments are also shown to influence the wage offer suggesting that better nutrition increases labor productivity the probability of market labor participation as well as the amount of net market labor supply declined with the size of paddy landholding in addition to the net market supply elasticity increasing with the amount of land owned and being lower for urban than rural workers

earnings schooling ability and cognitive skills conventional estimates now available for a large number of countries generally indicate that the social returns to education are positive large and competitive with returns to investment in physical capital that such estimates are good guides for public resource allocation has however been questioned the heart of the problem lies in the interpretation of the positive relationship between the education and the earnings of workers whether as the conventional estimates assume the coefficient of the education variable in the earnings function measures the effect on the productivity of workers of human capital acquired in school it has been hypothesized that education in part or instead represents screening for native ability and motivation or credentialism and that as a consequence conventional measures of the social benefit of education are substantially upward biased 2 in this paper we attempt to distinguish the influence on earnings of cognitive achievement native ability and years of education as a means of adjudicating the human capital screening and credentialist hypotheses our econometric analysis is based on two rigorously comparable micro data sets from kenya and tanzania generated by surveys of the urban wage labor force specifically for this study these data sets contain the usual variables found in earnings function estimates of the benefits of schooling individual earnings years of education and years of employment experience in addition they contain two variables measures of the worker s cognitive skills and of his or her reasoning ability not previously found in studies of developing countries and only rarely found in studies of the education earnings relationship in developed countries 3 with these variables we can estimate the direct effects on earnings of cognitive skills ability and years of schooling by using them to estimate educational production functions and educational attainment functions and linking these functions with the earnings function in a recursive framework we can also assess the various indirect effects on earnings of ability and years of schooling having data sets from two countries very similar with respect to size resource endowments structure of production and employment and level of development means that not only can we subject our results to the usual statistical tests but we can also assess their replicability both kenya and tanzania have nearly achieved the objective of universal primary education while university enrollments remain at less than 1 percent of the relevant age group the important policy issues re boissiere development research department the world bank 1818 h street washington d c 20433 knight institute of economics and statistics oxford university sabot williams college williamstown ma 01267 we are grateful to the educational testing service of princeton for the design of tests used in this study and to j armitage j behrman j hausman d hendry d jamison and an anonymous referee for their insights and advice helpful comments were also received from participants in seminars at oxford and yale universities the views presented here are our own they should not be interpreted as reflecting those of the world bank george psacharopoulos 1973 1981 contains a listing of 44 countries in which rate of return studies had been conducted and of the estimates obtained 2for instance kenneth arrow 1973 mark blaug 1976 samuel bowles and herbert gintis 1976 john riley 1979 michael spence 1976 and lester thurow 1975 3for attempts to control for ability and or for cognitive achievement in studies for the united states see jere behrman et al 1980 gary chamberlain and zvi griliches 1977 griliches and william mason 1972 michael olneck 1977 paul taubman and terence wales 1974 taubman 1975 and david wise 1975 see also the survey articles by griliches 1977 1979 in most instances the data refer to special subgroups in the population and clear distinction cannot be made between natural ability and cognitive skills acquired in school

who is afraid of political risk multinational firms and their choice of capital structure this paper investigates how multinational firms choose the capital structure of their foreign affiliates in response to political risk we focus on two choice variables the leverage and the ownership structure of the foreign affiliate and we distinguish different types of political risk such as expropriation unreliable intellectual property rights and confiscatory taxation in our theoretical analysis we find that as political risk increases the ownership share tends to decrease whereas leverage can both increase or decrease depending on the type of political risk using the microdatabase direct investment of the deutsche bundesbank we find supportive evidence for these different effects