large scale deployment of renewables for electricity generation comparisons of resource assessments suggest that sufficient renewable energy resources are available to allow for large scale deployment of renewable energy technologies economic analysis identifies barriers to the adoption of renewable energy sources resulting from i market structure ii competition in an uneven playing field and iii various non marketplace barriers however even if these barriers are removed the problem of technology lock out remains the key policy response is strategic deployment coupled with increased r d support to accelerate the pace of improvement through market experience this paper suggests significant contributions from various technologies are possible but does not assess their optimal or maximal market share copyright 2005 oxford university press

critical evaluation of financial supporting schemes for wind based projects case study greece after a long stagnating period during the second half of the 1990s the market of wind energy in greece was described by remarkable but unstable growth rates that resulted in the operation of 1 gw of wind power by the end of 2009 still though penetration of wind energy is not the one anticipated on the other hand national targets regarding the renewable energy sources res contribution and existence of excellent wind potential areas across greece challenge new wind energy investments acknowledging the unsteady development rates of wind power in greece efficiency of the state support mechanisms is currently investigated based on an analytical evaluation model the investigation undertaken is extended to provide a detailed cost benefit analysis of several wind energy case studies including mainland and island applications as well as comparison with both conventional power stations and photovoltaic plants for this purpose the financial support provided by the state is directly compared with benefits accruing from the operation of wind parks considering also the avoidance of social costs deriving from thermal power stations based on the results obtained the beneficial characteristics of wind energy applications for the greek society are clearly demonstrated especially in the case of non interconnected island grids

the implications of industrial development for diversification of fuels abstract the central role of energy in economic growth and development is substantiated by both theory and data much of the analysis of energy in economics has focused on the study of the aggregate output here we deviate from this approach and study the role of fuel diversification in industrial development we build the energy space describing the space of energy technologies which a country can use in the production of manufacturing goods as countries grow they diversify their industries producing more diverse products over time we show that the process is accompanied by diversification of fuels which countries use in the manufacturing sector in particular countries move in the energy space by adopting novel fuels while their movements can be linked to structural changes in the industry over time countries build unique production capabilities which drives divergence in fuel diversity between countries our results provide insight into the limits of fuel substitution in the manufacturing sector as well as they carry important implications for the assessment of potential reductions in co 2 emissions in the future

does public insurance crowd out private insurance the cost of expanding public sector health programs depends critically on the extent to which public eligibility will cover just the uninsured or will crowd out existing private insurance coverage we estimate the extent of crowd out arising from the expansions of medicaid to pregnant women and children over the 1987 1992 period we estimate that approximately 50 percent of the increase in medicaid coverage was associated with a reduction in private insurance coverage this occurred largely because employees took up employer based insurance less frequently there is also some evidence that employers contributed less for insurance and that workers dropped coverage of dependents

the family and the state the immaturity of children sometimes precludes efficient arrangements between children and parents or others responsible for child care the difficulty in establishing efficient relations within families provides the point of departure for our interpretation of the heavy state involvement in the family the authors believe that a surprising number of state interventions mimic the agreements that would occur if children were capable of arranging for their care many regulations of the family improve the efficiency of family activities these interventions include subsidies to education and training social security and other old age support subsidies to births laws that limit access to divorce and the sale of children and laws that require parents permission for early marriage and other choices of children families that leave bequests can force children to repay parents for investments in human capital by reducing bequests therefore these families do not underinvest in childrens human capital by contrast families that do not leave bequests often poorer families do underinvest in children the state may subsidize schools and other training facilities to raise investments in children by poorer families to efficient levels authors modified

evaluating unemployment policies what do the underlying theories tell us the paper surveys unemployment policies for advanced market economies and evaluates them by examining the predictions of the underlying macroeconomic theories the basic idea is that for the most part different unemployment policy prescriptions rest on different macroeconomic theories and our confidence in the prescriptions should depend at least in part on theories ability to predict some salient stylized facts about unemployment behavior the paper considers four types of policies laissez faire demand management policies supply side policies and structural policies copyright 1995 by oxford university press

empirical evidence on inflation expectations in the new keynesian phillips curve abstract we review the main identification strategies and empirical evidence on the role of expectations in the new keynesian phillips curve paying particular attention to the issue of weak identi

transfer behavior in the health and retirement study measurement and the redistribution of resources within the family recent work by a number of economists has opened a debate about the role played by intergenerational transfers using the new health and retirement study hrs we are better able to address the issues involved contrary to the current literature on bequests we do not find that parents give transfers equally to all children rather we find that in the case of inter vivos transfers respondents give greaterfinancial assistance to their less well off children than to their children with higher incomes financial transfers to elderly parents are also found to be negatively related to the potential recipient s income these results hold both for the incidence of transfers and for the amounts in addition we allow for unobserved differences across families by estimating fixed effect models and find our results to be robust to these specifications a comparison of the hrs transfer data to other survey data demonstrates that the hrs is potentially quite useful for research on transfer behavior

intergenerational transfers and liquidity constraints a growing body of evidence indicates that liquidity constraints could affect a substantial proportion of u s consumers but little is known about why these constraints might exist an important but little explored issue is the relationship between inter vivos intergenerational transfers and liquidity constraints these transfers can ease borrowing constraints empirical transfer patterns match those predicted from a model in which transfers are allocated to liquidity constrained consumers in particular the distinction between current and permanent incomes of potential recipients is a key aspect of private transfer behavior the findings have important implications for our understanding of consumer behavior

a comparison of models of long term inflationary expectations abstract this paper compares several models of long term inflationary expectations including time series models models drawn from interest rate relationships and a structural model developed from a portfolio balance framework their within sample performance over 1961 1974 and out of sample performance over periods covering 1975 1982 are compared evaluation criteria include accuracy of forecasts and ability to capture changes in the trend of long term inflation the structural model is judged best its forecasts are generally the most accurate and it performs well in periods of rising and falling inflation an attribute not present in other models

evaluating energy security in the asia pacific towards a more comprehensive approach the energy security conundrum how to equitably provide available affordable reliable efficient and environmentally benign energy services is a technology and policy challenge perhaps unlike any other the recent article on an energy security in the asia pacific by vlado vivoda is an excellent starting point for how to best capture the unique energy security challenges facing the region this article builds on vivoda s work but also points out some shortcomings with his analysis

energy security and renewable energy deployment in the eu liaisons dangereuses or virtuous circle abstract a large body of literature estimates the effect of energy security drivers on renewable energy deployment using import dependence as a proxy for energy security which is an approach that ignores the potential effect of other energy security strategies such as the diversification of energy sources using panel data for the energy sector across 21 eu member states we investigate the effect of different energy security concepts on the development of renewable energies we compare the results of applying different energy security indicators including the ones used in eu energy policymaking unlike previous studies this study reports a long term relationship between energy security and renewable deployment our findings suggest that the relationship between energy security policies and renewable energy sources res deployment is far from straightforward and depends on the chosen energy security strategy which is usually linked to different energy security conceptualizations our primary findings confirm i that res deployment is a consequence of a combination of energy security strategies including environmental concerns rather than being solely caused by a shift towards more sustainable energy policies and ii that among the different energy security strategies the diversification of energy sources through renewable energy deployment is a more coherent strategy than using res to reduce dependency

the strategic bequest motive although recent research suggests that intergenerational transfers play an important role in aggregate capital accumulation our understanding of bequest motives remains incomplete we develop a simple model of strategic bequests in which a testator influences the decisions of his beneficiaries by holding wealth in bequeathable forms and by conditioning the division of bequests on the beneficiaries actions the model generates falsifiable empirical predictions that are inconsistent with other theories of intergenerational transfers we present econometric and other evidence that strongly suggests that bequests are often used as compensation for services rendered by beneficiaries

how well do children insure parents against low retirement income an analysis using survey data from urban china abstract as population aging becomes more pronounced in the developing world the uneven implementation of social safety nets raises important questions as to how well traditional family based mechanisms insure elderly incomes when pension systems fail using a unique dataset from a recent household survey conducted in urban china we find evidence that private transfers respond to low household income of retired workers when income falls below the poverty line this finding is consistent with an altruistic motive for transfers at low levels of household income at the same time however the transfer response to elderly pre transfer income is not sufficient to fully cover shortfalls that arise with severe pension arrears and low retirement income

pension coverage for parents and educational investment in children evidence from urban china when social security is established to provide pensions to parents their reliance upon children for future financial support decreases and their need to save for retirement also falls in this study the expansion of pension coverage from the state sector to the non state sector in urban china is used as a quasi experiment to analyze the intergenerational impact of social security on education investments in children in a difference in differences framework a significant increase in the total education expenditure is found to be attributable to pension expansion the results are unlikely to be driven by other observable trends they are robust to the inclusion of a large set of control variables and to different specifications including one based on the instrumental variable method

quantifying the supplier portfolio diversity of embodied energy strategic implications for strengthening energy resilience this paper investigates energy resilience of countries by quantifying the supplier diversification of both direct and embodied energy import in particular we quantify two approaches to diversify a country s supplier portfolio by lowering the dependency on each supplier portfolio diversification and by having embodied energy suppliers that are different from its direct energy suppliers portfolio differentiation we examine possibilities for strategic utilization of embodied energy trade to compensate for low diversity of direct energy trade for three types of fossil resources coal oil and gas we find that the diversity of embodied energy import is much greater than that of direct energy import of the three energy resources coal enables countries to adopt portfolio diversification and portfolio differentiation more than gas and oil our results suggest embodied energy can be considered as a transfer of energy resources across national borders that can directly benefit from the diversity of the world energy production by skipping the limited diversity of the world energy export

reconciling the wage curve and the phillips curve the wage curve is the negative relationship that links wage levels to the unemployment rate it fits accurately with modern non competitive labour market models but goes against a phillips curve modelling because the latter ties wage growth to the unemployment rate in this article we present a comprehensive review of these non competitive models highlighting recent contributions that try to eliminate the possible gap that exists between the concepts of the wage curve on the one hand and the phillips curve on the other copyright blackwell publishers ltd 2005

thailand s energy security indicators abstract this study presents an assessment of the energy security of thailand using nineteen indicators the assessment period is for a 45 year period 1986 2030 and used published data for 1986 2009 and applying three energy scenarios for the period 2010 2030 the three scenarios considered were high economic growth and least cost option heg lc low carbon society lcs and current policy cp the results show that lcs scenario shows higher energy security or lower vulnerability to energy risk on a long term however to achieve this the additional target of energy saving by 2030 should be changed from 25 reduction of energy intensity of final energy consumption to 60 energy intensity reduction of primary energy compared to 2009 level one benefit would be an increase in the non carbon incentive fuel portfolio by 33 of total primary energy supply in 2030 a reduction in crude oil and natural gas domestic production will be offset by an increase in their imports co 2 emission reduction of 123 mtco 2 and improvements in domestic energy reserves will also result

relative price variability inflation and the allocative efficiency of the price system abstract this paper develops a theory of the relationship between aggregate and relative price variability based on the inability of people even in a rational world to identify permanent changes in relative demands whether caused by real or by monetary variability and relative productivities as soon as they occur the theory implies that the variance of the rate of inflation and the variance of relative price change are positively related although expectations are rational and markets always clear production decisions respond sluggishly to changes in relative prices temporary shocks to relative demands cause prolonged changes in the structure of production available information is used so as to maximize the efficiency of the price system however this efficiency decreases when any of the underlying variances increases this decrease is more pronounced when the production lag is longer

burning peat in ireland an electricity market dispatch perspective abstract this paper examines peat power production in ireland under the three pillars of energy policy security competitiveness and environment peat contributes to energy security as an indigenous fuel it reduces dependency on imports during a period of low capacity margins the operation of the peat plants is useful from a system security perspective peat generation is being financially supported by consumers through an electricity levy the fuel also has high carbon intensity it is not politically viable to consider peat on equal economic criteria to other plant types because of history and location this paper reviews electricity generation through combustion of peat in ireland and quantifies the costs of supporting peat utilising economic dispatch tools finding the subsidy is not insignificant from a cost or carbon perspective it shows that while peat is beneficial for one pillar of energy policy security the current usage of peat is not optimal from a competitiveness or environmental perspective by switching from the current must run mode of operation for peat to the dispatched mode used for the other generation significant societal savings in the range 21 m per annum can be achieved as well as reducing system emissions by approximately 5 per year

the relationship between relative prices and the general price level it is very nearly a truismi amaong neoclassical economists that the public is wont to confuse changes in the general price level with relative price changes correspondingl y one might speak of the independence between the two as one of the central postulates of the neoclassical tradition william stanley jevons was aml ong the first to identify this basic dichotomin economic life as well as to attempt to explain the ordinary citizen s seenming incapacity to understand it

monetary policy trend inflation and the great moderation an alternative interpretation with positive trend inflation the taylor principle does not guarantee a determinate equilibrium we provide new theoretical results on determinacy in new keynesian models with positive trend inflation and new empirical findings on the federal reserve s reaction function before and after the volcker disinflation to find that i while the fed likely satisfied the taylor principle before volcker the us economy was still subject to self fulfilling fluctuations in the 1970s ii the us economy switched to determinacy during the volcker disinflation and iii the switch reflected changes in the fed s response to macroeconomic variables and the decline in trend inflation jel e12 e23 e31 e32 e52

selection and monetary non neutrality in time dependent pricing models for a given frequency of price adjustment monetary non neutrality is smaller if older prices are disproportionately more likely to change selection for the age of prices provides a complete characterization of price setting frictions in time dependent models selection for older prices is weaker and non neutralities are larger if the hazard function of price adjustment is less strongly increasing selection is weaker if there is heterogeneity in price stickiness finally selection is weaker if durations of price spells are more variable in particular the taylor 1979 model exhibits maximal selection for older prices whereas the calvo 1983 model exhibits no selection

the challenging economics of energy security ensuring energy benefits in support to sustainable development abstract energy is a key resource to economic development and is required to be available continuously and in adequate amounts also it is expected to be affordable and environmentally friendly ensuring this is a challenge yet strategic to maintain economies running under a sustainable pattern energy security is neither a new concept nor a new concern however because of new issues it requires a novel broader approach such an approach should address both demand security of supply and supply security of demand sides as well as take into account energy scarcity situations and surplus opportunities in addition it should allow for both private markets and public policies and regulations initiatives this paper presents a theoretical and practical basis for the economics of energy security energy security is defined in this context as the ability of an economy to provide sufficient affordable and environmentally sustainable energy services so as to maintain a maximum welfare state even when issues would press it otherwise we introduce the notion of energy security gap to represent the economy s failure to show such ability additionally we also propose a framework to support the evaluation planning and implementation of energy security in an economy this framework relies on the concepts of resilience adaptability and transformability walker et al 2004 to prescribe indicators to assess the energy security of an economy furthermore it proposes mechanisms to enhance energy security as well as a continuous process to increasingly achieve this

tied transfers and paternalistic preferences why do parents make inter vivos transfers to their children and leave them postmortem bequests 1 gary becker s notions of altruism 1981 ch 8 by which he means that children s utilities are arguments of their parents utility function provides one explanation denoting the children s utility functions by u ci where ci denotes consumption by child i the preferences of parents with two children can be represented by a utility function of the form w cp u1 c1 u2 c2 where cp is the parents own consumption 2 in the altruistic model parents sole motive for intergenerational transfers is to increase their children s utility in other models however parents may have nonaltruistic as well as altruistic motives for transferring resources to their children the literature on economic development emphasizes old age support as a motive for fertility and to a lesser degree as a motive for providing children with human capital as part of an explicit or implicit intergenerational contract when human capital formation is the primary focus of the analysis as in discussions of education and earnings it is useful to decompose inter vivos transfers into human capital formation and other inter vivos transfers such a decomposition can mislead in discussing intergenerational transfers however because it obscures the fact that the provision of human capital by parents constitutes an intergenerational transfer laurence kotlikoff and avia spivak 1981 analyze another old age support model one in which the family operates as an incomplete annuities market in their model children make regular transfers to their aging parents and the share that each child contributes to the parents determines his or her share of the parental estate although the prospect of old age support may be an important motive for downstream intergenerational transfers i e from parents to children in some societies in the united states today upstream transfers appear too small and too uncertain to make this motive credible to explain downstream transfers in the united states today economists have investigated other models in which parents have selfish as well as selfless motives for example b douglas bernheim andrei shleifer and lawrence summers propose a model in which parents use the prospect of bequests to exact services from their children we envision a testator who though altruistic is also affected by actions taken individually by a number of potential beneficiaries he may e g enjoy receiving attention from his children 1985 p 1046 bernheim et al assume that such actions increase parents utility and decrease children s utilities in their model the children s utility functions become u1 ai ci where ai denotes services the ith child provides the parents and the parents utility function becomes w cp al a2 ul al c1 u2 a2 ca to measure these services bernheim et al use frequency of contact i e visits plus telephone calls between parents and children this approach expands the concept of child services to include those provided by adult children who live outside the parents household in an attempt to explain bequests and inter vivos transfers child services originally appeared in discussions of fertility and the allocation of resources to young children living with their parents and thus tends to evoke the joys of young parenthood university of pennsylvania philadelphia pa 19104 and university of washington i am grateful to the national science foundation and the national institutes of health for financial support to gary becker samuel preston david stapleton and paul taubman for helpful comments and to judith farnbach for editonal assistance 1 even if bequests are unplanned as some versions of the life cycle savings model assume inter vivos transfers must be intentional 21 ignore the possible dependence of the children s utility on their own children s utility etc because it is not relevant to the issues discussed in this paper

is price flexibility destabilizing sluggish wages and prices are generally the culprits in keynesian models of unemployment and business fluctuations price flexibility in standard fix price models would restore the economy to full employment this line of reasoning has often been at the heart of proposals to reform institutions in order to restore flexibility to wages and prices there is however a strand of macroeconomic thought that questions the wisdom of too much price flexibility john maynard keynes raised the issue in chapter 19 of the general theory by noting that a deflation could raise real interest rates and thereby impede a return to full employment in his 1975 paper keynesian models of recession and depression james tobin develops this point in a formal model low prices work to move the economy to full employment but falling prices to the extent that they lead to expectations of deflation raise the real interest rate through the mundell effect and move the economy away from full employment instability is likely to occur if expectations of inflation adjust rapidly to actual inflation and the real interest rate effect is large our historical experience does include significant episodes where either reductions in inflation or actual deflation were accompanied by high real interest rates although other factors could be responsible the experiences of the great depression the latin american countries in the late 1970 s and the united states in the early 1980 s all add surface plausibility to the real interest rate deflation link and thus to one aspect of the keynes tobin story recently bradford de long and lawrence summers 1984 have argued that the decrease in the variance of output following world war ii can be largely attributable to the decrease in wage and price flexibility in the postwar era the reason output fluctuations are smaller today is precisely because the keynes tobin destabilizing mechanism is less operative today this paper examines whether increased price flexibility can be destabilizing in a version of john taylor s contract model 1979 1980 extended to include real interest rate effects taylor s model includes both backward and forward elements in wage setting behavior and thus permits some rationality in the wage setting process we find that even with this limited degree of rationality increased wage flexibility leads to a decrease in both the variance of output and the variance of prices nicholas carlozzi and taylor 1983 introduce the real rate of interest into a staggered contract framework and discuss in general terms and through simulations the effects that changing real rates may have on the system they do not however study the effects of potential instability through increases in wage flexibility or provide any analytical results they provide an extensive discussion of the implications of alternative policy rules on the stochastic behavior of the economy we first add the real interest rate to the standard taylor model and derive the solution and prove key analytical results these results are further buttressed by simulations

diversity and security in uk electricity generation the influence of low carbon objectives abstract we explore the relationship between low carbon objectives and the strategic security of electricity in the context of the uk electricity system we consider diversity of fuel source mix to represent one dimension of security robustness against interruptions of any one source and apply two different diversity indices to the range of electricity system scenarios produced by the uk government and independent researchers our results show that low carbon objectives are uniformly associated with greater long term diversity in uk electricity generation with reference to data on wind generation we also consider the impact of source variability on a second dimension of security the reliability of generation availability we conclude that this does not undermine our fundamental conclusion that low carbon scenarios are associated with greater strategic security of supply in uk electricity we discuss reasons for this result explore sensitivities and briefly discuss possible policy instruments associated with diversity and their limitations

resilience and electricity systems a comparative analysis electricity systems have generally evolved based on the natural resources available locally few metrics exist to compare the security of electricity supply of different countries despite the increasing likelihood of potential shocks to the power system like energy price increases and carbon price regulation this paper seeks to calculate a robust measure of national power system resilience by analysing each step in the process of transformation from raw energy to consumed electricity countries with sizeable deposits of mineral resources are used for comparison because of the need for electricity intensive metals processing we find that shifts in electricity intensive industry can be predicted based on countries power system resilience

on the real effects of short and long run inflation and relative sector price variability some empirical evidence using the kalman filter this paper evaluates empirically the effects of sector relative price variability and short run and long run inflation on the growth rate of real output in the united states since 1947 also permanent and transitory estimates are constructed to evaluate the effects of unanticipated movements in sector relative price on the growth rate of real output the results show a statistically significant inverse relationship beween the growth rate of real output and transitory sector relative price variability and anticipated long run inflation and a direct relationship between the growth rate of real output and unanticipated short run inflation

pathways for the north european electricity supply this paper investigates the development of the electricity supply systems in northern europe germany uk denmark finland sweden and norway until the year 2050 the focus is on the response to an assumed common stringent co2 reduction target and on the role of carbon capture and storage technologies ccs special emphasis is put on turn over in capital stock timing of investments and the infrastructural implications of large scale introduction of ccs the analysis is carried out through scenario analysis with the aid of a techno economic model in which a case including ccs is compared to a case excluding this option the phase out of the present capital stock power plants is included from the chalmers energy infrastructure databases which gives information on present and planned power plants down to block level for plants exceeding 10mw net electric power assuming technical lifetimes for these plants yield residual capacities in each year here referred to as the phase out pattern ccs technologies are assumed to become commercially available in 2020 the age structure of the power plants indicate that full turn over in capital stock will take several decades with the present generation capacities accounting for around 50 of generated electricity in 2020 the results show that co2 emission reductions of 20 and 60 by the years 2020 and 2050 respectively relative to 1990 can be met at a marginal cost of abatement of about 25 40 h ton co2 over the period studied if ccs is included as an option from 2020 at the same time the marginal cost of generating electricity lies in the range 45 60 h mwh excluding ccs raises the marginal cost of abatement with about 10 h ton co2 whereas the marginal cost of electricity generation increases with roughly 5 10 h mwh the co2 target by the year 2020 is met by implementation of renewable electricity and fuel shifting from coal to gas after 2020 ccs technologies constitute an attractive way for cost efficient and almost co2 free base load however wide spread application of ccs is an infrastructural challenge with respect to implementing capture plants as well as building up a corresponding co2 infrastructure for transportation and storage as well as in coal supply systems given the price assumptions applied gas may not be competitive once ccs enters the system causing early retirements of such units or possibly stranded assets

assessing the determinants of sids pattern toward sustainability a statistical analysis abstract the aim of this paper is twofold first we assess the sids pattern towards energy sustainability second we try to understand the macro factors that drive policy makers in setting the optimal framework for investments in renewable energy sources the empirical analysis is performed on a large dataset of 136 countries and 41 variables observed in the time span 2000 2011 countries analyzed include a sample of 12 sids bahrain cuba dominican republic fiji islands guyana haiti jamaica maldives mauritius papua new guinea singapore trinidad and tobago distributed worldwide due to the large number of variables collected and their high degree of collinearity the first step of the analysis concerns the implementation of a principal component analysis in order to extract factors explaining the majority of variation of the original variables in the second step three different scenarios of modeling are designed to examine the key factors promoting res investments in a first scenario we employ a pooled regression model in the second a fixed effect model and in the third a random effect model is estimated the main results of empirical analysis could be unexpected at first sight they show in fact that sids are not on a energy sustainability path as in the case of other developing countries policy makers prefer to use resources to improve economic aspects of development leaving behind issues related to the environmental protection the use of res and sustainability in order to improve economic and environmental resilience of sids a synergy between local governments and international organizations to promote the investments in res is needed moreover an energy plan that clearly supports the generation of energy from res is recommended finally policy makers should strength their commitment in raising population s awareness toward a green energy generation such synergic interventions will allow sids to achieve a more sustainable development

energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices taiwan energy supply structure case study abstract facing the risk and uncertainty inherent in social and economic development many countries have adopted an energy supply diversification strategy in their energy security policy to control the energy import risk and cost to ensure that sufficient energy can be obtained at an affordable price level diversification helps the energy system respond to external changes and shocks diversification can also lessen the vulnerability of a single energy source to supply shocks and the market power of various energy supply sources this study develops the diversity reliability index and co vary diversity reliability index based on the hirschman herfindahl and shannon wiener indices investigates the contribution of different energy sources to the energy system and analyzes the covariance between various energies and their impacts on energy security to determine the impact of energy diversity in reducing the risk of energy supply shortages and cost fluctuations

indicators of energy security in industrialised countries energy security has become a popular catch phrase both in the scientific arena as well as in the political discussion yet in general the applied concepts of energy security are rather vague this paper sheds some light on concepts and indicators of energy security first we conceptually discuss the issue of energy supply security and explain why it is not to handle by one science alone and what economics may contribute in order to structure the topic after providing a brief survey of existing attempts to define or measure energy security we suggest an additional dimension along which indicators of energy security may be classified ex post and ex ante indicators finally we illustrate our concept on the basis of several simplified indicators while ex post indicators are mostly based on price developments ex ante indicators are to a greater extent aimed at illustrating potential problems our illustration suggests that it is worthwhile to take into account the market structure along with the political stability of exporting countries

an evaluation of the forecast performance of alternative models of inflation the forecast performances of three groups of models of the inflation process are evalu ated in this paper ra tional expectations models with instantaneous market clearing monetarist models and expectations augmented phillips curves the dynamic simulations performed for the intervals between 1977 and 1984 are somewhat discouraging for all three theories the variation in forecasting performance within model groups often exc eeded the variation in performance across model groups nevertheless the philli ps curve formulation rarely performed worse than the other two models and in th e 1981 to 1984 period it performed substantially better than the alternative mod els of inflation copyright 1987 by mit press

benefits of low carbon development in a developing country case of nepal this paper analyzes the direct and indirect benefits of reducing co2 emission during 2005 to 2100 in the case of nepal a low income developing country rich in hydropower resource it discusses the effects on energy supply mix local pollutant emissions energy security and energy system costs of co2 emission reduction targets in the country by using an energy system model based on the markal framework the study considers three cases of co2 emission reduction targets and analyzes their benefits during the study period as compared to the reference scenario the first two cases consist of a 20 cutback scenario ert20 and 40 cutback scenario ert40 of co2 emission in the reference scenario the third case considers a 40 cutback of co2 emission with the share of electric mass transport emt in the land transport service demand increased to 30 as compared to 20 in the reference scenario the study shows that an implementation of scenario ert40 would increase the cumulative electricity generation mainly from hydropower by 16 5 794 twh reduce the cumulative consumption of imported fuels by 42 24 400 pj and increase the total energy system cost by 1 6 during 2005 to 2100 as compared to the reference scenario besides there would be a reduction in the emission of local pollutants and generation of additional employment in the country with the share of emt increased to 30 there would be a further reduction in local pollutant emissions an improvement in energy security and a decrease in the energy system cost compared to that in scenario ert40

does diversity matter a fresh inquiry into the energy economy and environment nexus the article extends the literature on the nexus among economy environment and energy by incorporating an index of electricity generation diversity in production and emission functions the index i

energy security under de carbonization scenarios an assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices abstract how would a low carbon energy transformation affect energy security this paper proposes a framework to evaluate energy security under long term energy scenarios generated by integrated assessment models energy security is defined as low vulnerability of vital energy systems delineated along geographic and sectoral boundaries the proposed framework considers vulnerability as a combination of risks associated with inter regional energy trade and resilience reflected in energy intensity and diversity of energy sources and technologies we apply this framework to 43 scenarios generated by the message model as part of the global energy assessment including one baseline scenario and 42 low carbon scenarios where the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2 c over the pre industrial level by and large low carbon scenarios are associated with lower energy trade and higher diversity of energy options especially in the transport sector a few risks do emerge under low carbon scenarios in the latter half of the century they include potentially high trade in natural gas and hydrogen and low diversity of electricity sources trade is typically lower in scenarios which emphasize demand side policies as well as non tradable energy sources nuclear and renewables while diversity is higher in scenarios which limit the penetration of intermittent renewables

does the law of one price hold in a high inflation environment a tale of two cities in turkey this study addresses the price convergence in two cities in turkey istanbul and ankara using annual data over the three quarters of the twentieth century 1922 1998 characterized by prevailing high inflation rates for most of the period in contrast to the rest of the literature addressing convergence in price levels with a typical result of extremely slow convergence rates at best we argue that convergence is much easier detected in growth rates rather than levels of prices we suggest using the bounds testing procedure of pesaran et al 2001 for this purpose we find a clear cut evidence on the existence of a common driving force behind inflation dynamics in istanbul and ankara a finding that is in contrast with the results typically reported in related literature

capital accumulation income distribution and endogenous fertility in an overlapping generations general equilibrium model abstract this paper studies the intertemporal relationships among population growth income distribution inter generational social mobility skill composition of the labor force and household income in an overlapping generations general equilibrium model that aggregates household decisions regarding fertility savings and investment in human capital of children it shows that as a consequence of endogenous fertility the equilibrium path attains steady state from the second generation income tax transfer child taxation and social security taxation policies that can be devised to affect these variables are also analyzed the model provides a structural explanation for the inverse household income child quantity and negative child quality quantity relationships that are observed in developing countries it also shows that group interests may hinder the emergence of perfect capital markets with private initiatives

assessing long term energy security the case of electricity in the united kingdom there is a growing body of research into the potential security risks and trade offs which may emerge over the long term development of energy systems as part of this body of research this paper aims to develop and demonstrate a set of indicators for assessing the security of long term national electricity scenarios this paper extends the empirical work of existing frameworks by including reliability and cost parameters alongside a range of other important aspects of energy security such as diversity trade and acceptability and by using both qualitative and quantitative indicators without aggregation in order to identify trade offs this paper uses the indicators to assess the energy security implications of three plausible long term scenarios for the uk electricity system the results indicate that a major risk may be experienced by a lack of flexible responsive supply capacity in low carbon electricity pathways reducing overall energy demand is found to be the most beneficial policy for improving energy security in terms of generating benefits in multiple dimensions the paper finds that energy security is often conceptualised as the avoidance of causes of insecurity such as insecure fuel imports but that an equally important aspect of security lies in maximising responses to insecurity for example by increasing the flexibility and responsiveness of both supply and demand

diversity and ignorance in electricity supply investment addressing the solution rather than the problem the need for diversity has been cited as a rationale for important recent investment decisions in the uk electricity supply sector it is invoked as the principal argument for continuing major government intervention yet there exists no formal analytical basis for the concept why is diversity good what is meant by diversification what is it that must be diversified what trade off should be struck between diversity and other measures of performance the resulting ambiguity causes confusion and is vulnerable to special pleading despite this this paper argues that diversification offers a superior alternative to probabilistic approaches towards uncertainty and ignorance in electricity supply investments and proposes a formal analytical approach a quantitative index of diversity is borrowed from information theory and used to derive a value for the government s implicit willingness to pay for diversity in the uk electricity supply mix this is then applied in a pilot exercise to the problem of optimizing the diversity and financial performance of the supply portfolio although provisional the results are relevant to the government s forthcoming nuclear review particularly in assessing the relative levels of support for nuclear power and renewable energy

fossil fuel dependence and vulnerability of electricity generation case of selected european countries abstract this paper analyses the diversity of fuel mix for electricity generation in selected european countries and investigates how the fuel bill has changed as a share of gdp between 1995 and 2005 the drivers of fuel dependence related vulnerability are determined using laspeyres index decomposition a what if analysis is carried out to analyse the changes in the vulnerability index due to changes in the drivers and a scenario analysis is finally used to investigate the future vulnerability in the medium term the paper finds that the british and the dutch electricity systems are less diversified compared to three other countries analysed the gas dependence of the dutch and italian systems made them vulnerable but the vulnerability increased in all countries in recent years gas price and the level of dependence on gas for power generation mainly influenced the gas vulnerability the united kingdom saw a substantial decline in its coal vulnerability due to a fall in coal price and coal dependence in electricity generation the scenario analysis indicates that uk is likely to face greater gas vulnerability in the future due to increased gas dependence in electricity generation and higher import dependence

inertial inflation indexation and price stickiness evidence from brazil abstract this paper evaluates the inertial inflation hypothesis for brazil the hypothesis posits that indexation created a feedback mechanism such that one time supply shocks were fully transmitted into permanent changes in inflation a theoretical model is used to show that this outcome is based on the assumption of perfect price flexibility however with price stickiness indexation does not produce inertial inflation the degree of inertia is then compared for two periods one without indexation 1945 1963 and one with indexation 1969 1985 finally vector autoregressive representations are estimated for the latter period allowing for price stickiness the empirical results do not support the hypothesis

price adjustments in a general model of state dependent pricing we study the distribution of retail price adjustments under the assumption that firms are more likely to adjust their prices when doing so is more valuable our setup nests calvo 1983 at one extreme and a fixed menu cost model at the other all parameterizations are ranked by a measure of state dependence high state dependence implies counterfactually that there are no small price changes and that the variance of price changes falls sharply with trend inflation the parameterization that best fits microdata has low state dependence implying a phillips curve coefficient 60 as large as that of the calvo model but is nonetheless well behaved at high inflation rates

analysis of energy security environmental emission and fuel import costs under energy import reduction targets a case of pakistan abstract the influence of reducing energy imports 5 10 and 15 on primary energy supply diversification of energy resources cost of imported fuels energy security and environmental emission during 2005 2050 were analyzed through a long term integrated energy system model of pakistan using market allocation markal framework the study found that primary energy supply would decrease marginally while cumulative renewable energy would increase by 24 energy import dependency would reduce by 3 diversification of energy resources would increase 1 1 fold and vulnerability would decrease by 9 under energy import reduction scenario as compared to the base case the cost of imported fuels would reduce by 10 and the greenhouse gas emissions would decrease by 8 in the energy import reduction scenario the impact on energy security was represented through a set of eleven energy security indicators the improvements in energy security indicators under energy import reduction targets indicate the enhancement of energy security of pakistan

public policy and extended families evidence from pensions in south africa how are resources allocated within extended families in developing economies this question is investigated using a unique social experiment the south african pension program under that program the elderly receive a cash transfer equal to roughly twice the per capita income of africans in south africa the study examines how this transfer affects the labor supply of prime age individuals living with these elderly in extended families it finds a sharp drop in the working hours of prime age individuals in these households when women turn 60 years old or men turn 65 the ages at which they become eligible for pensions it also finds that the drop in labor supply is much larger when the pensioner is a woman suggesting an imperfect pooling of resources the allocation of resources among prime age individuals depends strongly on their absolute age and gender as well as on their relative age the oldest son in the household reduces his working hours more than any other prime age household member

monetary targets real exchange rates and macroeconomic stability abstract in this paper i develop a model to determine the optimal degree of flexibility in attaining monetary targets in an economy that is affected by shocks in the labor and financial markets i then simulate the model to assess the optimal degree of monetary policy flexibility in spain a country that has adopted monetary targets rigidly since 1978 i show that the model supports the policy choice of that country i also show that the monetary authorities should attribute more importance to real exchange rate movements in choosing their policies if the spanish economy becomes more open to international trade or if the labor market becomes more flexible

price wage dynamics and inflation in socialist economies empirical models for hungary and poland this article analyzes the determinants of open inflation in transitional socialist economies with reference to recent experience in hungary and poland a simple inflation model is centered on the transmission process and on the short run dynamics of inflation further incorporating a number of features specific to socialist economies and working with quarterly data dynamic price and wage equations are estimated the estimated equations allow satisfactory exploration of the role and weight of foreign prices and domestic factors in propagating inflation foreign prices matter but developments on the cost side are critical in relating exogenous policy driven adjustments to the price level to increases in the rate of inflation the absence of conventional market based equilibrating mechanisms requires that nominal anchors particularly wage restraints feature prominently in any stabilization program adopted by reforming socialist economies copyright 1992 by oxford university press

services inflation dynamics and persistence puzzle in brazil a time varying parameter approach this article analyses services inflation dynamics in brazil focusing on the services inflation persistence puzzle for monthly data from january 2004 to february 2016 we apply a time varying para

the return of the liquidity effect a study of the short run relation between money growth and interest rates in this article i use band pass filters to investigate the short run relationship between money growth and interest rates i find a negative correlation between short run movements in money growth and interest rates which i interpret as evidence that the liquidity effect dominates the anticipated inflation effect

long term energy services security what is it and how can it be measured and valued abstract the paper reviews some recent approaches towards measuring the extent of long term energy security and security externality valuation it starts out to discuss the contextual connotations of notions of energy security in medium to long term time frames and reviews some indicators that have been proposed to quantify it special attention is paid to two of these approaches which the authors helped to develop i e diversity based indices and the supply demand index the paper takes issue with conventional welfare economic approaches that neglect i the scope on the demand side for raising security and ii negative feedback mechanisms of socio political impacts of international rent transfers in fossil fuels exporting countries the concept of energy services security is proposed with a demand side focus this enables application of an integrated approach to gauge the resilience of a society to meet the needs of its population for energy services over longer timescales ahead from various interrelated perspectives propositions are made on the attribution of security externalities to the use of fossil fuels policies and suggestions for further improvements of measures for energy services security

examining the resilience of national energy systems measurements of diversity in production based and consumption based electricity in the globalization of trade networks abstract energy is a critical component of achieving sustainable development in addition to the three aspects of promoting access renewables and efficiency the dimension of resilience in energy systems should also considered the implementation of resilient energy systems requires a quantitative understanding of the socio economic practices underlying such systems specifically in line with the increasing globalization of trade there remains a critical knowledge gap on the link between embodied energy in the production and consumption of traded goods to bridge this knowledge gap we investigate the resilience of global energy systems through an examination of a diversity measure of global embodied electricity trade based on multi regional input output mrio networks the significance of this research lies in its ability to utilize high resolution mrio data sets in assessing the resilience of national energy systems this research indicates that secure and responsible consumption requires the diversification of not only energy generation but also energy imports this research will lay the ground for further research in the governance of resilience in global energy networks

trend inflation wage and price rigidities and productivity growth abstract what are the steady state implications of inflation in a general equilibrium model with real per capita output growth and staggered nominal price and wage contracts surprisingly a benchmark calibration implies an optimal inflation rate of 1 9 percent the analysis also shows that trend inflation has important effects on the economy when combined with nominal contracts and real output growth steady state output and welfare losses are quantitatively important even for low values of trend inflation further nominal wage contracting is found to be quantitatively more important than nominal price contracting in generating the results this conclusion does not arise from price dispersion per se but from an effect of nominal output growth on the optimal markup of monopolistically competitive labour suppliers finally accounting for productivity growth is found to be important for calculating the welfare costs of inflation indeed the presence of 2 percent productivity growth increases the welfare costs of inflation in the benchmark specification by a factor of four relative to the no growth case

output persistence from monetary shocks with staggered prices or wages under a taylor rule we analytically examine output persistence from monetary shocks in a dsge model with staggered prices or wages under a taylor rule surprisingly while taylor style staggering never yields persistence calvo style staggering of wages does generate persistence under decreasing returns to labour c 2009 elsevier b v all rights reserved

unemployment as excess supply of labor implications for wage and price inflation abstract the introduction of both market clearing wages and nominal rigidities on wage setting can be used to rationalize unemployment as excess supply of labor in the new keynesian model as a result wage inflation dynamics are forward looking and depend negatively on the rate of unemployment moreover both price inflation and wage inflation evolve as indicated by equations equivalent to those obtained in erceg et al 2000 though with different slope coefficients in an equal volatility comparison the model with unemployment conveys less price stickiness and more wage stickiness

indicators for energy security the concept of energy security is widely used yet there is no consensus on its precise interpretation in this research we have provided an overview of available indicators for long term security of supply sos we distinguished four dimensions of energy security that relate to the availability accessibility affordability and acceptability of energy and classified indicators for energy security according to this taxonomy there is no one ideal indicator as the notion of energy security is highly context dependent rather applying multiple indicators leads to a broader understanding incorporating these indicators in model based scenario analysis showed accelerated depletion of currently known fossil resources due to increasing global demand coupled with increasing spatial discrepancy between consumption and production international trade in energy carriers is projected to have increased by 142 in 2050 compared to 2008 oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in a few countries up to 2030 after which production from other regions diversifies the market under stringent climate policies this diversification may not occur due to reduced demand for oil possible benefits of climate policy include increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources

diversification of oil import sources and energy security a key strategy or an elusive objective this paper explores the relationship between the diversification of sources of imported oil and energy security of oil importing countries it examines the importance of diversification policy for oil importers explains why oil importers implement oil diversification policy and contextualizes the oil import diversification strategy in the overall energy security policy of oil importers the paper analyzes the factors and the contexts that affect the level of importance assigned to oil import diversification policy in oil importing countries and the limitations that may affect the successful implication of oil import diversification policy the examples are drawn from the world s top three oil importers the united states japan and china the policymakers in these and other oil importing countries place much importance on energy security the diversification of oil import sources is used as one of the strategies to enhance energy security in oil importing countries this paper is important for policymakers in oil importing countries as it provides them with a qualitative conceptual framework with which to evaluate the need to diversify their countries sources of imported oil and with which to identify the likely limitations to the successful implementation of oil import diversification policy

intergenerational effects of welfare reform on educational attainment abstractthis paper estimates the impact of the fundamental welfare reforms of the 1990s on the educational attainment of children in low income families using administrative records and individual survey data spanning the early 1990s to the mid 2000s we find large positive effects of welfare reform income gaps in school enrollment and dropout rates narrow by more than 20 percent unlike the significant and growing relative gains in the years following state welfare reforms we find no evidence of relative gains for low income adolescents in the years preceding the reforms these findings are robust under alternative definitions of the treatment and control groups and after controlling for contemporaneous economic and policy changes

long term diversification paths and energy transitions in europe the concentration of the energy mixes of eight european countries is measured latecomers historically enjoyed lower levels of concentration in their energy mixes early comers followed an inverted u path of concentration latecomers a u path a time effect and size effect explains the different patterns small energy consuming countries will be able to do faster transitions

sectoral employment variability and unexpected inflation this paper considers the relationship between the variability of sectoral employment and unexpected inflation the framework used is a multisector version of friedman s well known model of the business cycle the model suggests that sectoral employment variability is a quadratic function of unexpected inflation and the rate of growth in real gnp the model is tested using annual u s data on sectoral employment in the nonagricultural economy from 1901 to 1978 inflationary surprises and the rate of real growth are found to explain between 60 and 85 of the variability in relative sectoral employment performance

staggering the optimal monetary rule and persistence abstract the purpose of this paper is to show that persistence is not an attribute that derives from the characteristics of wage and price setting alone the structure of demand the monetary rule and the welfare loss function are also crucial determinants of the time series characteristics of the model

socially just support mechanisms for the promotion of renewable energy sources in greece abstract although development of renewable energy sources res projects is essential for the greek national economy to revive cut downs of public spends in greece may equally well extend to affect res support mechanisms in this context an integrated cost benefit analysis is currently undertaken concerning res investments in the greek electricity sector more specifically social support compared with financial benefits accruing from such energy stations reveals hidden imbalances that urge for the reform of the current support status examination of representative case studies currently provided considers the three most widespread res i e wind energy hydropower and solar energy with special emphasis given on the determination of break even feed in tariffs fits and the comparison of life cycle electricity production cost between res and conventional power stations

conceptualizing energy security abstract energy security 1 is one of the main targets of energy policy however the term has not been clearly defined which makes it hard to measure and difficult to balance against other policy objectives we review the multitude of definitions of energy security they can be characterized according to the sources of risk the scope of the impacts and the severity filters in the form of the speed size sustention spread singularity and sureness of impacts using a stylized case study for three european countries we illustrate how the selection of conceptual boundaries along these dimensions determines the outcome this can be avoided by more clearly separating between security of supply and other policy objectives this leads us to the definition of energy security as the continuity of energy supplies relative to demand

valuing diversity in energy supply abstract there is renewed interest in the role of supply diversity in promoting energy security this paper explores ways of valuing diversity a possible incentive mechanism for promoting diversity which takes account of underlying disparities between different technology options is developed the mechanism provides a way of trading off cost and diversity and results in an efficient cost diversity frontier by analogy with financial portfolio theory if all technologies are believed to be equally disparate the appropriate mechanism is a levy imposed on market share if the technologies are not equally disparate the levy needs to be adjusted by technology specific multipliers that take account of levels of disparity and patterns of market share the analysis is applied to two stylised situations in the long run equilibrium case the implications of both different patterns of disparity and different values attached to diversity are investigated the paper also explores the implications of applying such a mechanism to the current great britain electricity system the implications in terms of financial flows for both the market as a whole and for individual operators are investigated finally the appropriateness of such a mechanism in the light of other policy goals and possible future research directions is discussed

surprise party estimating the consequences of unexpected presidential election results alesina s quarterly journal of economics 102 651 678 1987 influential model of presidential elections with ideologically motivated parties attributes higher growth and lower unemployment under democratic presidents to the surprise inflation a democratic victory entails in contrast to the published literature we test this hypothesis using calcula tions of presidential election surprises consistent with the assumption of rational economic actors we confront the econometric complications attending a time series approach tak ing into account economic growth dynamics we ultimately fail to confirm the hypothesis that the level of uncertainty associated with presidential election results has an effect on economic outcomes

the phillips curve the persistence of inflation and the lucas critique evidence from exchange rate regimes comment we present evidence from the united states and the united kingdom that the persistence of price inflation is significantly higher under managed exchange rate regimes than under gold based fixed exchange rate regimes these differences are also reflected in expectations augmented phillips curves we use a two country macro model with forward looking price setters to demonstrate that higher monetary accommodation of inflation and exchange rate accommodation of inflation differentials increase inflation persistence the evidence does not contradict this hypothesis it supports the hypothesis of forward looking price setters and highlights the empirical significance of the lucas critique jel e31 e42 f33

distributed generation and distribution market diversity in europe the unbundling of the electricity power system will play a key role on the deployment of distributed generation dg in european distribution systems evolving towards smart grids the present paper firstly reviews the relevant european union eu regulatory framework specific attention is paid to the concept of unbundling of power distribution sector in europe afterwards the focus is on the current state of penetration of dg technologies in the eu member states and the corresponding interrelations with distribution features a comparison between the unbundling of the distribution and supply markets using econometric indicators such as the herfindahl hirschmann ihh and the shannon wiener isw indices is then presented finally a comparative analysis between these indices and the current level of penetration of distributed generation in most eu is shown policy recommendations conclude the paper

energy environmental and economic effects of renewable portfolio standards rps in a developing country abstract this paper analyses the potential of renewable energy for power generation and its energy environmental and economic implications in pakistan using a bottom up type of long term energy system based on the markal framework the results show that under a highly optimistic renewable portfolio standard rps of 80 fossil fuel consumption in 2050 would be reduced from 4660 pj to 306 pj and the ghg emissions would decrease from 489 million tons to 27 million tons nevertheless price of the electricity generation will increase significantly from us 47 mwh under current circumstances in the base case to us 86 mwh under rps80 however the effects on import dependency energy mix diversity per unit price of electricity generation and cost of imported fuels indicate that it may not be desirable to go beyond rps50 under rps50 in 2050 fuel consumption of the power sector would reduce from 21 under the base case to 9 of total fossil fuels supplied to the country it will decrease not only ghg emission to 170 million tons but also will reduce import dependency from 73 under the base case to 21 and improve energy diversity mix with small increase in price of electricity generation from us 47 mwh under the base case to us 59 mwh under rps 50

assessing the sustainability challenges for electricity industries in asean newly industrialising countries abstract rapid social and economic progress in fast developing countries such that among the countries in the association of southeast asian nations asean have driven substantial growth in electricity consumption in this region whilst this represents significant societal and economic development it has potentially growing adverse environmental impacts this raises a concern on sustainable development in the electricity sector in this region this study evaluates key sustainability challenges in the electricity industries in the five largest energy consumers in asean indonesia thailand malaysia the philippines and vietnam the 3a s energy sustainability objectives accessibility availability and acceptability are used as the sustainability analytical framework this study also draws together a set of associated indicators and criteria within the analytical framework to analyse the status of the electricity industries in these countries the analysis shows that key sustainability challenges in the asean 5 are attributable to satisfying rapid demand growth enhancing security of electricity supply and mitigating the increase in co2 emissions from electricity generation given the promising resource and technical potential in this region renewable energy emerges as a favourable option to address these challenges however increasing the share of renewable energy in electricity generation requires considerable policy support this study suggests that there is an opportunity for the asean countries to strengthen regional collaborations through experience and resource sharing to enhance sustainability in the electricity industries this study also highlights some of the key issues facing the electricity industry and the need for new generation investment decision support tools which can address these issues