simulating stock returns under switching regimes a new test of market efficiency a model of profits switches between four regimes with fixed probabilities the rationally expected profits stream implies the stock market value this efficient market model is not rejected by uk post war time series behaviour of either profits or the ftse index

equity weights in the allocation of health care the rank dependent qaly model this paper introduces the rank dependent quality adjusted life years qaly model a new method to aggregate qalys in economic evaluations of health care the rank dependent qaly model permits the formalization of influential concepts of equity in the allocation of health care such as the fair innings approach and it includes as special cases many of the social welfare functions that have been proposed in the literature an important advantage of the rank dependent qaly model is that it offers a straightforward procedure to estimate equity weights for qalys we characterize the rank dependent qaly model and argue that its central condition has normative appeal

aversion to health inequalities and priority setting in health care traditionally aversion to health inequality is modelled through a concave utility function over health outcomes bleichrodt et al bleichrodt h diecidue e quiggin j 2004 equity weights in the allocation of health care the rank dependent qaly model journal of health economics 23 157 171 have suggested a dual approach based on the introduction of explicit equity weights the purpose of this paper is to analyze how priorities in health care are determined in the framework of these two models it turns out that policy implications are highly sensitive to the choice of the model that will represent aversion to health inequality

eliciting people s preferences for the distribution of health a procedure for a more precise estimation of distributional weights in order to incorporate distributional concerns into cost effectiveness analysis it would be useful to elicit distributional weights that express people s valuation of marginal health gains at various levels of health distributional preferences are commonly elicited either through a person trade off pto or a gain trade off gto technique an inherent problem of the gto is that it is based on the valuation of non marginal health gains in practice many contributions using the pto also focus on non marginal health gains this paper demonstrates that the failure to distinguish appropriately between marginal and non marginal health gains may lead to seriously misleading estimates of distributional weights moreover the paper proposes a methodology for utilising information obtained through non marginal analysis more efficiently in order to obtain more reliable estimates of distributional weights the methodology was successfully applied in an empirical study of age weights

rates of time preference and consumer valuations of automobile safety and fuel efficiency this article estimates hedonic price models for automobiles using a data set on almost 3 000 households from the u s department of energy residential transportation energy consumption survey the standard hedonic models are generalized to recognize the role of discounting of fuel efficiency and safety yielding an estimated rate of time preference ranging from 11 to 17 percent this range includes the prevailing rate of interest for car loans in 1988 and is consequently consistent with market rates purchasers exhibit an implicit value of life ranging from 2 6 to 3 7 million which is within the range found in the labor market as well as other market contexts the model also estimates a significant price effect for auto injury risks and fuel efficiency

economic and environmental gains of china s fossil energy subsidies reform a rebound effect case study with eimo model abstract energy consumption and efficiency emerged as the hottest topic in the context of china s sustainable development energy subsidies and rebound effect were closely related to this topic while few combinative studies on them with a focus on china this paper employed a co thinking approach focusing on how the energy subsidies reform could mitigate the rebound effect in china and how to achieve an economic and environmental gains that reduced pecuniary spending improved the distorted energy market and reduced energy consumption simultaneously firstly with price gap approach we calculated the total energy subsidies scale of china in 2007 which amounted to582 0 billion cny then we detected and identified rebound effect of china energy consumption with the features furthermore based on china 2007 monetary input output table and energy flow analysis we compiled a hybrid physical energy input and monetary output model eimo to simulate the mitigation effect of subsidies reform results showed that removing energy subsidies would decrease ultimate demand of different economy sectors and reduce the accumulatively physical consumption of coal oil natural gas and electricity by 17 74 13 47 3 64 and 15 82 million tce respectively finally we discussed relevant policy issues on china s energy subsidies reform in depth

business cycle theory and econometrics we outline in turn criticisms made by econometricians of the methods used in empirical business cycle research and then criticisms made by business cycle researchers of some methods used by econometricians the aim is to clarify and in some cases correct thesecriticisms overall there is no conflict in using rigourous statistical procedures to study modern dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models we also provide a concise bibliographyof recent research on statistical methods for business cycle models

solving asset pricing models when the price dividend function is analytic we present a new method for solving asset pricing models which yields an analytic price dividend function of one state variable to illustrate our method we give a detailed analysis of abel s asset pricing model a function is analytic in an open interval if it can be represented as a convergent power series near every point of that interval in addition to allowing us to solve for the exact equilibrium price dividend function the analyticity property also lets us assess the accuracy of any numerical solution procedure used in the asset pricing literature

impact of government subsidies on household biogas use in rural china abstract in this paper we evaluate empirically the impact of biogas subsidies on household biogas energy use in rural china special attention was given to the problem of sample selection bias in assessing the impact of subsidies on biogas energy use because biogas subsidies often change the propensity for installing biogas digesters using data from a large scale household survey the results indicate that biogas subsidies did promote the construction of biogas digesters the results suggest that a 10 percentage point increase in subsidy cost ratio would lead to a 3 increase in digester installations we also found that biogas subsidies correlated negatively with average time of digester use a 10 percentage point increase in the subsidy cost ratio would result in a 4 3 reduction in the average working time of digesters these results suggest that the net effect of the current subsidy policy on rural household biogas use was near negligible indeed a 10 percentage point increase in the subsidy cost ratio resulted in a mere 1 15 increase in biogas use these findings indicate that biogas subsidies have possibly not been targeted effectively at households that would actually prefer to use biogas energy

policy implications of the purchasing intentions towards energy efficient appliances among china s urban residents do subsidies work incentive policies are always used to sway purchase retail stocking and production decisions toward energy efficient products by many countries or regions so the effectiveness of such subsidies has been of much concern to scholars this research focused on whether or not subsidy policies have guided people s intentions and behaviours we investigated 436 urban residents from 22 provinces in china covering the seven major geographic regions and made an empirical analysis of the factors influencing chinese urban residents purchasing intentions towards energy efficient appliances based on the structural equation model on theoretical aspect we developed the theory of planned behaviour our results show that the variable policy is insignificant which indicates that policy environment and media propaganda in china do not have significant effect on chinese residents willingness to pay for energy efficient appliances while the residents environmental awareness past purchasing experiences social relationships age and level of education all exert a significant influence on chinese residents purchasing intentions finally based on the above research results the corresponding policy suggestions which mainly focus on the time of subsidy the object of subsidy and the method of subsidy are offered for policy makers

a new axiomatic approach to the evaluation of population health in this paper we explore the implications of normative principles for the evaluation of population health we formalize those principles as axioms for social preferences over distributions of health for a given population we single out several focal population health evaluation functions which represent social preferences as a result of combinations of those axioms our results provide new rationale for popular theories in health economics such as the unweighted aggregation of quality adjusted life years qalys or healthy years equivalents hyes and generalizations of the two aimed to capture concerns for distributive justice without resorting to controversial assumptions on individual preferences

can a well fitted equilibrium asset pricing model produce mean reversion in recent papers cecchetti et al 1990 and kandel and stambaugh 1990 showed that negative serial correlation in long horizon returns was consistent with an equilibrium model of asset pricing in this paper we show that their results rely on misspecified markov switching models for the endowment process once the proper markov specification is chosen for the endowment process the model does not produce mean reversion of the magnitude detected in the data furthermore the small amount of mean reversion produced by the model is due only to small sample bias we also show that this model is unable to predict negative excess returns contrary to empirical evidence

the social welfare function and individual responsibility some theoretical issues and empirical evidence the literature on income distribution has attempted to evaluate different degrees of inequality using a social welfare function swf approach however it has largely ignored the source of such inequalities and has thus failed to consider different degrees of inequity the literature on egalitarianism has addressed issues of equity largely in relation to individual responsibility this paper builds upon these two literatures and introduces individual responsibility into the swf results from a small scale study of people s preferences in relation to the distribution of health benefits are presented to illustrate how the parameter values of a swf might be determined

understanding preference for egalitarian policies in health are age and sex determinants this article presents an empirical assessment of the relevance of different factors when understanding preferences for outcome egalitarian policies in health in particular respondent age and sex a representative sample of the spanish population was interviewed n 1209 after being informed that those from the higher social class have longer life expectancy at birth than those from the lower social class respondents were required to choose between two programmes to increase life expectancy of the two groups by the same amount the distribution neutral programme and to target the lowest social class group thereby reducing current health inequalities the targeting or egalitarian programme two variants one with and the other without visual aid are used majority 69 of respondents support targeting an effect of age was observed where younger and older individuals are less likely to target the egalitarian policy than those in middle age however individual s sex was not associated wit

the econometrics of the general equilibrium approach to business cycles early in this century american institutionists and members of the german historical school attacked and rightfully so neoclassical economic theory for not being quantitative this deficiency bothered ragnar frisch and motivated him along with irving fisher joseph schumpeter and others to organize the econometric society in 1930 the aim of the society was to foster the development of quantitative economic theory that is the development of what frisch labeled econometrics soon after its inception the society started the journal econometrica frisch was the journal s first editor and served in this capacity for twenty five years

theories of justice and their implications for priority setting in health care abstract the paper aims to show how three theories of distributive justice utilitarianism egalitarianism and maximin can provide a clearer understanding of the normative basis of different priority setting regimes in the health service the paper starts with a brief presentation of the theories followed by their prescriptions for distribution as illustrated with their respective preferred points on a utility possibility frontier after this general discussion attention is shifted from utils to health the paper discusses how the recent norwegian guidelines for priority setting can be understood in the light of the theories

mean reversion in g 10 nominal exchange rates according to conventional wisdom industrial country floating exchange rates contain unit roots sur tests on panels of monthly group of ten g 10 log nominal rates reject the null of unit roots for various samples over the current float with significance levels from 0 5 to 15 on average in out of sample forecasts mean reversion models beat random walks significantly in some forecast periods for monthly data the range of expected usd dem appreciation rates exceeds 15 per year in the mean reversion model mean reversion places strong restrictions on international models over the sample period the g 10 had to run monetary policies consistent with stable long run nominal rates

equity and equality in health and health care this paper explores four definitions of equity in health care equality of utilization distribution according to need equality of access and equality of health we argue that the definitions of need in the literature are inadequate and propose a new definition we also argue that irrespective of how need and access are defined the four definitions of equity are in general mutually incompatible in contrast to previous authors we suggest that equality of health should be the dominant principle and that equity in health care should therefore entail distributing care in such a way as to get as close as is feasible to an equal distribution of health

measuring business cycles a modern perspective in the first half of this century special attention was given to two features of the business cycle 1 the comovement of many individual economic series and 2 the different behavior of the economy during expansions and contractions both of these attributes were ignored in many subsequent business cycle models which were often linear representations of a single macroeconomic aggregate however recent theoretical and empirical research has revived interest in each attribute separately notably dynamic factor models have been used to obtain a single common factor from a set of macroeconomic variables and nonlinear models have been used to describe the regime switching nature of aggregate output we survey these two strands of research and then provide some suggestive empirical analysis in an effort to unite the two literatures and to assess their usefulness in a statistical characterization of business cycle dynamics

price determination for a collectible good the case of rare united states coins researchers investigating markets for collectible goods such as paintings 1 2 6 12 antique furniture 7 stradivarius violins 14 wine 8 10 and postage stamps 15 often report rates of return to holding collectibles that are both low 2 6 7 8 12 and volatile 6 7 8 12 baumol 2 argues that the market for paintings of noted deceased artists has no long run equilibrium price because the market is characterized by infrequent trades of unique assets which are available in fixed supply his empirical analysis supports the idea that paintings experience unpredictable price changes and highly dispersed rates of return with a mean near zero in contrast anderson 1 reports estimated equations explaining approximately 60 percent of the variation in log prices of paintings based on the size of painting date of sale and a constructed measure of repute of the artist other researchers have examined markets with more frequent transactions and greater substitutability among the goods traded schnitzel 15 finds that year to year changes in prices of postage stamps are predictable based on age of the stamp and quantity printed ross and zondervan 14 report that variations in quality affect prices but not rates of return of stradivarius violins a result which is consistent with user benefits being invariant with respect to quality among markets for collectibles the market for rare u s coins is active and well organized and faces the potential for increased federal regulation annual sales are estimated at 5 billion 16 two wall street brokerages recently have formed multimillion dollar limited partnerships to invest in rare coins and some coins now are traded on electronic exchanges 5 these innovations have come amid calls for increased regulation to guard against fraudulent grading of coins 5 16 a major determinant of the price of a collectible coin is its grade a measure of condition reflecting qualities such as sharpness of features regulators accuse coin dealers of defrauding collectors of millions of dollars annually by assigning higher than warranted grades to the coins dealers sell while downgrading coins they buy for example the federal trade commission ftc

likelihood ratio based tests for markov regime switching markov regime switching models are widely considered in economics and nance although there have been persistent interests see e g hansen 1992 garcia 1998 and cho and white 2007 the asymptotic distributions of likelihood ratio based tests have remained unknown this paper considers such tests and establishes their asymptotic distributions in the context of nonlinear models allowing for multiple switching parameters the analysis simultaneously addresses three di culties i some nuisance parameters are unidenti ed under the null hypothesis ii the null hypothesis yields a local optimum and iii the conditional regime probabilities follow stochastic processes that can only be represented recursively addressing these issues permits substantial power gains in empirically relevant situations besides obtaining the tests asymptotic distributions this paper also obtains four sets of results that can be of independent interest 1 a characterization of conditional regime probabilities and their high order derivatives with respect to the model s parameters 2 a high order approximation to the log likelihood ratio permitting multiple switching parameters 3 a re nement to the asymptotic distribution and 4 a uni ed algorithm for simulating the critical values for models that are linear under the null hypothesis the elements needed for the algorithm can all be computed analytically the above results also shed light on why some bootstrap procedures can be inconsistent and why standard information criteria such as the bayesian information criterion bic can be sensitive to the hypothesis and the model s structure when applied to the us quarterly real gdp growth rates the methods suggest fairly strong evidence favoring the regime switching speci cation consistently over a range of sample periods

testing the unbiased forward exchange rate hypothesis using a markov switching model and instrumental variables this paper develops a model for the forward and spot exchange rate which allows for the presence of a markov switching risk premium in the forward market and considers the issue of testing the unbiased forward exchange rate ufer hypothesis using us uk data it is shown that the ufer hypothesis cannot be rejected provided that instrumental variables are used to account for within regime correlation between explanatory variables and disturbances in the markov switching model on which the test is based copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

the reaction of stock returns to news about fundamentals in good times stock prices react negatively to good news and positively to bad news whereas in bad times they react positively to good news and negatively to bad news to account for this stylized fact we consider an asset pricing model where the dividend growth rate switches between different values depending on the underlying state of the economy investors never observe the true dividend growth rate but learn about it through not only its realizations but also external signals such as macroeconomic indicators under plausible assumptions the differing precision of external signals across different states of the economy can change the sign of the market reaction to news from external signals in good and bad times this paper was accepted by brad barber finance

endogenous trading volume and momentum in stock return volatility this article examines the ability of volume data to shed light on the source of persistence in stock return volatility a mixture model in which a latent common factor restricts the joint density of volume and returns is used to relax the assumption of exogenous volume used in previous studies we use a point in time signal extraction procedure to identify this latent process and a calibrated simulation to conduct analysis of the viability of the model to explain important properties of the data using daily returns and volume on individual stocks our procedure cannot accommodate serial dependence in squared returns

the effect of mean reversion on investment under uncertainty abstract mean reverting processes are appropriate for most real option investment models yet geometric brownian motion gbm processes are generally used for tractability hassett and metcalf j econom dyn control 19 1995 1471 1488 argue that using a gbm process is justified because mean reversion has two opposing effects it brings the investment trigger closer and also reduces the conditional volatility thereby lowering the likelihood of reaching the trigger and the overall effect on investment should be negligible for most reasonable parameter values this paper extends the hassett and metcalf model by incorporating a third factor the effect of mean reversion on systematic risk the main result is that mean reversion in general does have a significant impact on investment moreover this effect could be either positive or negative depending on various factors such as project duration cost of investing interest rate etc thus it is generally inappropriate to use the gbm process to approximate a mean reverting process

option pricing with mean reversion and stochastic volatility many underlying assets of option contracts such as currencies commodities energy temperature and even some stocks exhibit both mean reversion and stochastic volatility this paper investigates the valuation of options when the underlying asset follows a mean reverting lognormal process with stochastic volatility a closed form solution is derived for european options by means of fourier transform the proposed model allows the option pricing formula to capture both the term structure of futures prices and the market implied volatility smile within a unified framework a bivariate trinomial lattice approach is introduced to value path dependent options with the proposed model numerical examples using european options american options and barrier options demonstrate the use of the model and the quality of the numerical scheme

a joint analysis of market indexes in credit default swap volatility and stock markets abstractthis paper analyses the joint dynamics of the cds volatility and stock markets using both var and markov regime switching var models with market index data it shows that the joint behaviour of the three markets is better characterized by the markov model with two regimes corresponding to low and high volatile market conditions the relationship between changes in the market indexes under a regime is consistent with theory and persistent the information transmission process of shocks to the markets is similar for the two regimes with a more important role for cds shock and the volatility in the money market is an important determinant of regime switching the findings have practical implications particularly for hedging strategies with market indexes under different market conditions

efficiency effectiveness and implementation feasibility of energy efficiency rebates the renove plan in spain abstract state sponsored incentive policies frequently include subsidies or rebates for the purchase of more efficient appliances however more research is required into the effects of this tool in isolation a case in point is the so called renove plan in spain first the inefficiency losses dead weight losses associated with energy efficiency rebates must be taken into account such a policy may also encourage the large scale purchasing of energy efficient appliances which may finally result in an increase in electricity consumption rebound effect furthermore although a subsidy is more widely accepted than other tools from social and political viewpoints especially than taxes the fiscal consolidation challenge faced by many countries reduces the scope for environmental policy measures on the expenditure side of the budget and strengthens the need to use taxes to meet the agreed policy objectives this paper shows that the current application of the spanish renove plan with rebates on the dishwasher market for energy efficient appliances generates some welfare losses a rebound effect and a considerable deficit in public budgets the paper examines and assesses the effect of different combinations of taxes and rebates in the case of dishwashers in spain based on their performance in terms of economic efficiency environmental effectiveness and implementation feasibility

on the fluctuations in consumption and market returns in the presence of labor and human capital an equilibrium analysis abstract we examine the effects of human capital on consumption stock market and other fluctuations in a general equilibrium continuous time model a representative consumer worker investor derives utility from consumption and leisure a representative firm demands labor as the sole input to a stochastic production technology driven by general possibly nonmultiplicative shocks for cobb douglas utility and multiplicative shocks labor is nonstochastic and consumption and stock market volatility are equated as under no human capital deviations from this are analyzed for logarithmic utility and constant elasticity of substitution production technology cases are identified where the presence of labor causes consumption to be smoother than the stock market

intrinsic bubbles and regime switching abstract froot and obstfeld 1991 allow for an intrinsic bubble in stock prices using approximately a century of annual data for the us in an attempt to model the widely documented deviations from the prices predicted by present values or fundamentals however they assume that the log of real dividends follows a constant random walk with drift over the whole period we show that this assumption is invalid and that a markov switching model is a more appropriate representation of dividends we then generalise the formulation of stock prices including the intrinsic bubble to allow for this and show that regime switching provides a better explanation for stock prices than the bubble we show that when allowance is made both for the bubble and for regime switching in the dividend process the incremental explanatory contribution of the bubble is low

are stock returns predictable a test using markov chains this paper uses a markov chain model to test the random walk hypothesis of stock prices given a time series of returns a markov chain is defined by letting one state represent high returns and the other represent low returns the random walk hypothesis restricts the transition probabilities of the markov chain to be equal irrespective of the prior years annual real returns are shown to exhibit significant nonrandom walk behavior in the sense that low high returns tend to follow runs of high low returns in the postwar period

axioms for health care resource allocation this paper examines principles of health care resource allocation based on axioms for individual preferences and distributive justice we establish axioms for representing individual preferences by quality adjusted life years qalys as well as axioms for existence of a social welfare function depending only on qalys a symmetric cobb douglas social welfare function is characterized by an axiom stating that social welfare is anonymous with respect to the distribution of individual life years replacing this axiom with an axiom of non age dependence we obtain a characterization of a utilitarian social welfare function with certain weights further we give axioms for a social welfare function being a weighted sum of power transformations of individual qalys

are some lives more valuable an ethical preferences approach we develop a theoretical model of the ethical preferences of individuals combining individual social welfare functions and random utility theory the model is applied by conducting a choice experiment regarding safety enhancing road investments that target different age groups and road user types the relative value of a saved life is found to decrease with age such that the present value of a saved life year is almost independent of age at a pure rate of time preference of a few percent moreover a saved pedestrian is consistently valued higher than a saved car driver of the same age

nonlinear dynamical model of regime switching between conventions and business cycles abstract we introduce and study a non equilibrium continuous time dynamical model of the price of a single asset traded by a population of heterogeneous interacting agents in the presence of uncertainty and regulatory constraints the model takes into account i the price formation delay between decision and investment by the second order nature of the dynamical equations ii the linear and nonlinear mean reversal or their contrarian in the form of speculative price trading iii market friction iv uncertainty in the fundamental value that controls the amplitude of mispricing v nonlinear speculative momentum effects and vi market regulations that may limit large mispricing drifts we find markets with coexisting equilibrium conventions and business cycles that depend on a the relative strength of value investing versus momentum investing b the level of uncertainty on the fundamental value and c the degree of market regulation the stochastic dynamics is characterized by nonlinear geometric random walk like processes with spontaneous regime shifts between different conventions or business cycles this model provides a natural dynamical framework to model regime shifts between different market phases that may result from the interplay between the effects i vi

priority setting in health care and higher order degree change in risk this paper examines how priority setting in health care expenditures is influenced by the presence of uncertainty about the severity of the illness and the effectiveness of medical treatment we provide necessary and sufficient conditions on social preferences under which a social planner will allocate more health care resources to populations at higher risk changes in risk are defined by the concept of stochastic dominance up to order n the shape of the social utility function and an equity weighting function are used to model the inequality aversion of the social planner we show that for higher order risk changes the usual conditions on preferences such as prudence or relative risk aversion are not necessarily required to prioritise health care when there are different levels of uncertainty associated with otherwise similar patient groups

equity in health the importance of different health streams this paper develops a conceptual framework in which preferences about the distribution of future health gains depend on differences in four health streams these are as follows 1 the amount of health to be gained 2 the no treatment profiles 3 the amount of health experienced thus far and 4 the amount of health gained previously as a result of public health interventions this classification puts the well established concerns for severity stream 2 and age weights stream 3 into a more complete analytical framework stream 4 has not been discussed to date and the paper suggests some moral arguments about the distributive relevance of this stream of health

dividend variability and stock market swings this paper examines the extent to which swings in stock prices can be related to variations in the discounted value of expected future dividends when investors face uncertainty about their future behaviour i develop an econometric model that accounts for the instability of u s dividend growth and discount rates during the past 120 years estimates of the model reveal that changing forecasts of future dividend growth account for more than 90 of the predictable variations in dividend prices the estimates also imply that instability in the dividend and discount rate processes contribute significantly to the predictability of long horizon stock returns

consumption asset pricing with stable shocks exploring a solution and its implications for mean equity returns abstract we study the consumption based asset pricing model due to lucas econometrica 46 1978 1429 the exogenous endowment sequence is modeled as a linear stochastic process driven by stable shocks in an otherwise standard framework the gaussian process emerges as a special case we derive exact analytical solutions for asset prices and returns and provide conditions under which these exist we also study the ability of the model to generate realistic values of observed mean rates of return

determining the parameters in a social welfare function using stated preference data an application to health one way in which economists might determine how best to balance the competing objectives of efficiency and equity is to specify a social welfare function swf this paper looks at how the stated preferences of a sample of the general public can be used to estimate the shape of the swf in the domain of health benefits the results suggest that it is possible to determine the parameters in a social welfare function from stated preference data but show that people are sensitive to what inequalities exist and to the groups across which those inequalities exist

health inequality and non monotonicity of the health related social welfare function in a recent paper in this journal abasolo and tsuchiya abasolo i tsuchiya a 2004 exploring social welfare functions and violation of monotonicity an example from inequalities in health journal of health economics 23 313 329 have strongly argued for the use of a non monotonic health related social welfare function this note discusses both the limitations of the measure proposed by abasolo and tsuchiya abasolo i tsuchiya a 2004 exploring social welfare functions and violation of monotonicity an example from inequalities in health journal of health economics 23 313 329 and the problems associated with their empirics we are able to show how non monotonicity may lead to paradoxical results and policies further we examine the empirics of abasolo and tsuchiya abasolo i tsuchiya a 2004 exploring social welfare functions and violation of monotonicity an example from inequalities in health journal of health economics 23 313 329 and provide an alternative explanation to the observed patterns in the data that do not violate monotonicity finally we briefly mention why the atkinson sen framework may be more appropriate as a way forward

testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching abstract the expectations model of the term structure for us data on three and six month treasury bills for the period 1962 1 1987 3 is explored the analysis allows for the nonstationarity of the data and for unobserved stochastic switches of regime by estimating vars in the yield spread and the change in the three month rate which allow the time series processes to change between regimes in contrast to other results for the expectations model such as those of hamilton 1988 mankiw and miron 1986 and others we find that the data do not reject the model

learning regime switches and equilibrium asset pricing dynamics abstract we examine the autocorrelation properties of equilibrium returns when the growth rate of dividends consumption or gnp follows a markov switching process in contrast to earlier studies we assume that the agent learns the current growth state using observed dividends and bayes rule for the model with switching in the mean growth rate we find that learning significantly alters the pattern of returns often generating positive rather than negative autocorrelation for the model calibrated to gnp with switching in the variance of the growth rate we show that learning induces negative autocorrelation

consumer responses towards home energy financial incentives a survey based study abstract residential energy efficient and renewable energy eere products play an important role in energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction various financial incentive programs have been developed to promote the adoption of these products however their effectiveness in attracting consumers is not very well understood in this study we investigated impacts of financial incentives on homeowner s decision making towards six eere products two forms of incentives tax credits and interest free loans were examined through a household mailing survey in florida the united states results showed that although half of the respondents were interested in eere products the high investment cost was a major concern that hindered their purchase activities homeowners were attracted to financial incentives and valued tax credits much higher than interest free loans the current federal home energy tax credit levels were found to attract only 2 12 percent of homeowners to buy eere products the willingness of participation was especially low for the costly products such as solar panels the participation rate was also very low for lower income i e annual household income below 50 000 families living in older residences this study contributes to the understanding of economic and social aspects of consumer decision making on energy efficiency and alternative energy

on the economic foundations of cea ladies and gentlemen take your positions abstract there are still many ongoing debates about several aspects of the methodology of economic evaluations of health care interventions some of the disparities in recommendations on methodological issues may be traced back to different viewpoints on cost effectiveness analysis cea in general two important views are the welfarist approach which aims at embedding cea into traditional welfare economics and the decision maker s approach which takes a broader and more pragmatic view on cea the focus in welfarism may be on utility while that of the decision maker s approach may be considered to be on health in this paper it is examined how these two views differ and how these differences may subsequently lead to debates in methodological areas it is indicated that embedding the practical operationalisation of cea in welfare economics seems impossible in a strict welfarist approach it is necessary to view qalys as being utilities although one may question whether such an approach to qalys is appropriate also equity considerations may play an important role in cost effectiveness analysis and these should preferably be taken into account in a way that reflects societal attitudes towards an equitable distribution of health care these equity considerations may not always be directly related to utility or efficiency furthermore both camps may prefer different methods for cost measurement in areas such as productivity costs and informal care a better recognition of the contents and origins of controversies and disputes may enhance the clarity of discussions

options using a collective lottery to ration vaccines during an influenza pandemic for many countries the best way to counter an influenza pandemic is to provide citizens with a pandemic vaccine however since the global supply of the vaccines is far smaller than the quantity demanded how to allocate the limited vaccines can be a very challenging task for them in this study we introduce a collective lottery mechanism that allocates vaccines as fairly as the traditional lottery while also offering more options for family members or those who are close so that they can choose the joint probability of successes that can maximize their welfare this mechanism thus gives rise to a pareto improvement over the traditional lottery our empirical study uses the us and the uk as examples in sequential collective lotteries that are simulated to prove that such an improvement while maintaining fairness in fact exists

spotting sunspots some evidence in support of models with self fulfilling prophecies abstract this paper adds financial assests to roger farmer s business cycle model with increasing returns and self fulfilling beliefs by using information from the financial markets in conjunction with the structure of the model we can uncover from financial data the belief shocks that drive the model specifically we assume that belief shocks drive both economic fluctuations and asset returns the financial market information allows us to identify these shocks we use our methods to generate dynamic simulations of the model and show that it has incremental predictive power for key us time series

a nonparametric elicitation of the equity efficiency trade off in cost utility analysis we performed an empirical elicitation of the equity efficiency trade off in cost utility analysis using the rank dependent quality adjusted life year qaly model a model that includes as special cases many of the social welfare functions that have been proposed in the literature our elicitation method corrects for utility curvature and therefore our estimated equity weights are not affected by diminishing marginal utility we observed a preference for equality in the allocation of health the data suggest that the elicited equity weights were jointly determined by preferences for equality and by insensitivity to group size a procedure is proposed to correct the equity weights for insensitivity to group size finally we give an illustration how our method can be implemented in health policy

design of incentive programs for accelerating penetration of energy efficient appliances abstract incentives are policy tools that sway purchase retail stocking and production decisions toward energy efficient products incentives complement mandatory standards and labeling policies by accelerating market penetration of products that are more energy efficient than required by existing standards and by preparing the market for more stringent future mandatory requirements incentives can be directed at different points in the appliance s supply chain one point may be more effective than another depending on the technology s maturity and market penetration this paper seeks to inform future policy and program design by categorizing the main elements of incentive programs from around the world we identify advantages and disadvantages of program designs through a qualitative overview of incentive programs worldwide we find that financial incentive programs have greater impact when they target highly efficient technologies with a small market share and that program designs depend on the market barriers addressed the target equipment and the local market context no program design is inherently superior to another the key to successful program design and implementation is a thorough understanding of the market and identification of the most important local obstacles to the penetration of energy efficient technologies

market expectations in the uk before and after the erm crisis the british pound left the erm on 16 september 1992 after a period of turbulence uk monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates and an inflation target was announced this paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market s probability distribution of the future marks pound exchange rate and uk and german interest rates changed over the summer and autumn of 1992 the results show among other things how various policy decisions affected the market s assessment of the probabilities of realignments and lending rate cuts

information quality and stock returns revisited this paper investigates the relation between information on the state of the economy and equity risk premium we use a setup where investors have epstein zin preferences and the economy randomly switches between booms and recessions we are able to establish 2 key results first investors with high elasticity of intertemporal substitution eis will require lower excess returns for holding stocks if they are provided with better information on the state of the economy second we find that this also holds for investors with moderate eis if they are sufficiently risk averse

the interaction between nonexpected utility and asymmetric market fundamentals this paper studies a nonexpected utility general equilibrium asset pricing model in which market fundamentals follow a bivariate markov switching process the results show that nonexpected utility is capable of exactly matching the means of the risk free rate and the risk premium asymmetric market fundamentals are capable of generating a negative sample correlation between the risk free rate and the risk premium moreover an equilibrium asset pricing model endowed with asymmetric market fundamentals is consistent with all five first and second moments of the risk free rate and the risk premium in the u s data in their seminal work mehra and prescott 1985 argue that the observed historical average for the equity risk premium is too large and the average risk free rate is too small to be rationalized by a complete and frictionless asset pricing model the result of mehra and prescott which is known as the equity premium puzzle has triggered a great deal of research much of this research has attempted to resolve the puzzle by relaxing the assumptions of their analysis the agent has von neumann morgenstern time additive expected utility the return to the stock market is approximately equal to the return on the market portfolio and the consumption growth rate follows a symmetric markov chain one branch of research focuses on nonexpected utility functions of the kreps and porteus 1978 1979 type as a means of resolving the puzzle it is well known that von neumann morgenstern time additive expected utility has an intrinsic restriction that the reciprocal of the coefficient of relative risk aversion equals the elasticity of intertemporal substitution kreps and porteus establish a nonexpected utility framework which is capable of distinguishing the coefficient of relative risk aversion from the elasticity of intertemporal substitution however kocherlakota 1990a and weil 1989 demonstrate that relaxing the restriction between the coefficient of relative risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is not capable of resolving the puzzle

cost effective subsidy incentives for room air conditioners in china an analysis based on a mcfadden type discrete choice model abstract based on a mcfadden type conditional logit cl discrete choice model this paper estimates the most economic subsidy level mesl for room air conditioners racs in china that minimizes the net cost of subsidy per unit of electricity saved the analysis reveals that given the current price and efficiency spectrum of racs in the chinese market as well as the electricity price and cooling demand of chinese households the mesl for racs in china should be around 60 which is much higher than the current subsidy level of 5 15 a sensitivity analysis suggests that the high mesl 60 is mainly a consequence of relatively low electricity price and household cooling demand in the country if china s household cooling demand increases further and its electricity price were to rise to a higher level the mesl for racs could possibly drop to about 5 15 as household cooling demand varies among chinese cities in different climatic zones and at different levels of economic development the rac subsidy incentives should be region specific with necessary modifications the method for analysis proposed in this paper can also be applied to other household appliances to prioritize the types of appliances requiring subsidies

how the removal of energy subsidy affects general price in china a study based on input output model abstract in china most energy prices are controlled by the government and are under priced which means energy subsidies existing reforming energy subsidies have important implications for sustainable development through their effects on energy price energy use and co 2 emission this paper applies a price gap approach to estimate china s fossil fuel related subsidies with the consideration of the external cost results indicate that the magnitude of subsidies amounted to cny 1214 24 billion in 2008 equivalent to 4 04 of gdp of that year subsidies for oil products are the largest followed by subsidies for the coal and electricity furthermore an input output model is used to analyze the impacts of energy subsidies reform on different industries and general price indexes the findings show that removal of energy subsidies will have significant impact on energy intensive industry and consequently push up the general price level yet with a small variation removing oil products subsidies will have the largest impact followed by electricity coal and natural gas however no matter which energy price increases ppi is always the most affected then gdp deflator with cpi being the least corresponding compensation measures should be accordingly designed to offset the negative impact caused by energy subsidies reform

the risk premium and long run global imbalances this study proposes that heterogeneous household portfolio choices within a country and across countries offer an explanation for global imbalances we construct a stochastic growth multi country model in which heterogeneous agents face the following restrictions on asset trade first the degree of us equity market participation is higher than that of the rest of the world second a fraction of households in each country maintains a fixed share of equity in its portfolios in our calibrated model which matches the us net foreign asset position and the equity premium the average us household loads up more aggregate risk than the average foreign household by investing in risky assets abroad and issuing risk free assets as a result the us is compensated by a high risk premium and runs trade deficits even as a debtor country the long run average trade deficit in our model accounts for 50 of the observed us trade deficit

a model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics abstract this paper develops a model of carbon pricing by considering two fundamental drivers of european union allowances economic activity and energy prices on the one hand economic activity is proxied by aggregated industrial production in the eu 27 as it provides the best performance in a preliminary forecasting exercise vs other indicators on the other hand brent natural gas and coal prices are selected as being the main carbon price drivers as highlighted by previous literature the interactions between the macroeconomic and energy spheres are captured in a markov switching var model with two states that is able to reproduce the boom bust business cycle hamilton 1989 first industrial production is found to impact positively negatively the carbon market during periods of economic expansion recession thereby confirming the existence of a link between the macroeconomy and the price of carbon second the brent price is confirmed to be the leader in price formation among energy markets bachmeier and griffin 2006 as it impacts other variables through the structure of the markov switching model taken together these results uncover new interactions between the recently created eu emissions market and the pre existing macroeconomic energy environment

qalys and the equity efficiency trade off as the volume of research on quality adjusted life years qalys has increased concern has begun to be expressed about the equity aspects of resource allocation decisions based on the results of this research this paper suggests that a common theme running through the criticisms of the qaly approach is a concern about inequality it also suggests that the method for incorporating distributional concerns which is currently being pursued by advocates of the qaly approach will only ever capture concerns other than a concern about inequality the paper suggests a method for incorporating both sets of concerns into resource allocation decisions

investigating the social value of health changes this survey has demonstrated that the danish public is concerned with distributional aspects of health gains they have a strong inclination to give priority to those in a more severe health state provided their expected benefits are large enough to bring them to the health level where their rival patients are without treatment results also indicated that the equity argument may not apply with equal force on all health dimensions respondents did to some extent trade off equity for greater health gains a nouvelle finding is that the valuations of health increments per se seem to be affected by whether questions are framed as individual or social choices if social decision making is the issue health gains which involve relieving patients of extreme problems are valued more highly than relief of minor ailments these discrepancies between individual and social valuations suggest that the use of qaly values elicited from an individual s perspective may not be valid in social decision making

an exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns the subjective distribution of growth rates of aggregate consumption is characterized by pessimism if it is first order stochastically dominated by the objective distribution uniform pessimism is a leftward translation of the objective distribution of the logarithm of the growth rate the subjective distribution is characterized by doubt if it is mean preserving spread of the objective distribution pessimism and doubt both reduce the riskfree rate and thus can help resolve the riskfree rate puzzle uniform pessimism and doubt both increase the average equity premium and thus can help resolve the equity premium puzzle

the hamilton model with a general autoregressive component estimation and comparison with other models of economic time series abstract this paper generalizes the hamilton model to the important case in which the autoregressive component need not contain a unit root using u s quarterly real gnp data the model is estimated and the results are compared to those of hamilton some monte carlo evidence for the model is presented and its in sample forecasting performance is discussed and compared to the original hamilton model the arima model and the deterministic time trend model

comparing model results to national climate policy goals results from the asia modeling exercise abstract while the world has yet to adopt a single unified policy to limit climate change many countries and regions have adopted energy and climate policies that have implications for global emissions in this paper we discuss a few key policies and how they are included in a set of 23 energy and integrated assessment models that participated in the asia modeling exercise we also compare results from these models for a small set of stylized scenarios to the pledges made as part of the copenhagen accord and the goals stated by the major economies forum we find that the targets outlined by the united states the european union japan and korea require significant policy action in most of the models analyzed for most of the models in the study however the goals outlined by india are met without any climate policy the stringency of climate policy required to meet china s copenhagen pledges varies across models and accounting methodologies

exploring social welfare functions and violation of monotonicity an example from inequalities in health the social welfare function swf has been used within the economics literature to study trade offs between equality and efficiency these swfs are characterised by properties determined by traditional welfare economics one of these properties the monotonicity principle is explored in this paper in the context of health there may be occasions when the monotonicity principle is violated as there may be circumstances where distributional issues dominate efficiency concerns when this is the case conventional swfs are not flexible enough to represent such social preferences therefore we propose a swf with an alternative specification which is general enough to accommodate preferences that are not necessarily monotonic a survey of the spanish general public was undertaken to estimate preferences regarding equality in health relative to efficiency in health the results with 973 usable responses give strong support to the existence of public preferences which violate the monotonicity principle and thus to the usefulness of the alternative specification proposed here

the measurement of individual utility and social welfare it has been suggested by a number of economists that decisions about how to allocate scarce health care resources should be informed by the cost per quality adjusted life years qalys of the different alternatives one of the criticisms of the qaly approach is that it is based on the measurement of individual utility yet the values elicited are used to inform social choice in this respect it is argued that the qaly approach fails to take account of distributional issues that are known to be important in the context of health care this paper addresses this issue and presents an approach grounded in microeconomic theory that is flexible enough to deal with a wide range of efficiency equity trade offs while making the nature of the trade off transparent in addition it is an approach that is relatively simple to investigate empirically and the results of a preliminary study are presented as illustration of this

a markov model of switching regime arch in this article i present a new approach to model more realistically the variability of financial time series i develop a markov arch model that incorporates the features of both hamilton s switching regime model and engle s autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity arch model to examine the issue of volatility persistence in the monthly excess returns of the three month treasury bill the issue can be resolved by taking into account occasional shifts in the asymptotic variance of the markov arch process that cause the spurious persistence of the volatility process i identify two periods during which there is a regime shift the 1974 2 1974 8 period associated with the oil shock and the 1979 9 1982 8 period associated with the federal reserve s policy change the variance approached asymptotically in these two episodes is more than 10 times as high as the asymptotic variance for the remainder of the sample i conclude that regime shifts have a greater impact on the properties of the data and i ca

mean reversion in equilibrium asset prices this paper demonstrates that negative serial correlation in long horizon stock returns is consistent with an equilibrium model of asset pricing when investors display only a moderate desire to smooth their consumption commonly used measures of mean reversion in stock prices calculated from historical returns data nearly always lie within a 60 percent confidence interval of the median of the monte carlo distributions implied by the authors equilibrium model from this evidence the authors conclude that the degree of serial correlation in the data could plausibly have been generated by their model copyright 1990 by american economic association

estimating individual discount rates in denmark a field experiment we estimate individual discount rates with respect to time streams of money using controlled laboratory experiments these discount rates are elicited by means of field experiments involving real monetary rewards the experiments were carried out across denmark using a representative sample of 268 people between 19 and 75 years of age individual discount rates are estimated for various households differentiated by socio demographic characteristics such as income and age our conclusions are that discount rates are constant over the 12 month to 3 year horizons used in these experiments and that discount rates vary substantially with respect to several socio demographic variables hence we conclude that it would be reasonable to assume constant discount rates for specific household types but not the same rates across all households

the equity efficiency trade off in environmental policy evidence from stated preferences the design of environmental policy raises several equity issues in particular the distribution of benefits and costs at the same time it has often been argued that there is a trade off in environmental policy between equity and efficiency which brings these issues firmly to the attention of environmental economics in this paper we use a simple choice experiment to elicit individual preferences over equity efficiency trade offs in the context of two environmental problems local air pollution and global climate change we find that equity matters to people as much as efficiency does in the design and delivery of environmental policy

the neighbor effect simulating dynamics in consumer preferences for new vehicle technologies abstract understanding consumer behaviour is essential in designing policies that efficiently increase the uptake of clean technologies over the long run expert opinion or qualitative market analyses have tended to be the sources of this information however greater scrutiny on governments increasingly demands the use of reliable and credible evidence to support policy decisions while discrete choice research and modeling techniques have been applied to estimate consumer preferences for technologies these methods often assume static preferences this study builds on the application of discrete choice research and modeling to capture dynamics in consumer preferences we estimate canadians preferences for new vehicle technologies under different market assumptions using responses from two national surveys focused on hybrid gas electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles the results support the relevance of a range of vehicle attributes beyond the purchase price in shaping consumer preferences towards clean vehicle technologies they also corroborate our hypothesis that the degree of market penetration of clean vehicle technologies is an influence on people s preferences the neighbor effect finally our results provide behavioural parameters for the energy economy model cims which we use here to show the importance of including consumer preference dynamics when setting policies to encourage the uptake of clean technologies

efficient gradualism in intertemporal portfolios abstract this paper examines intertemporal portfolio plans under autocorrelation in asset returns and considers whether these plans conform to the common advice that risky assets be bought gradually and then held in decreasing amounts as the investment horizon approaches given elliptical returns optimal portfolio plans with precommitment must be mean variance efficient then for arma 1 1 parameterizations with negative autocorrelation the age effect gradual diminishing of risky holdings as the horizon approaches is confirmed as is dollar cost averaging gradual entry into the risky asset for sufficiently distant horizons for a numerically analyzed alternative bivariate returns process only the age effect is confirmed

ratings migration and the business cycle with application to credit portfolio stress testing the turmoil in the capital markets in 1997 and 1998 has highlighted the need for systematic stress testing of banks portfolios including both their trading and lending books we propose that underlying macroeconomic volatility is a key part of a useful conceptual framework for stress testing credit portfolios and that credit migration matrices provide the specific linkages between underlying macroeconomic conditions and asset quality credit migration matrices which characterize the expected changes in credit quality of obligors are cardinal inputs to many applications including portfolio risk assessment modeling the term structure of credit risk premia and pricing of credit derivatives they are also an integral part of many of the credit portfolio models used by financial institutions by separating the economy into two states or regimes expansion and contraction and conditioning the migration matrix on these states we show that the loss distribution of credit portfolios can differ greatly as can the concomitant level of economic capital to be assigned

health related externalities evidence from a choice experiment health related external benefits are of potentially large importance for public policy this paper investigates health related external benefits using a stated preference discrete choice experiment framed in a health care context and including choice scenarios defined by six attributes related to a recipient and the recipient s condition communicability severity medical necessity relationship to respondent location and amount of contribution requested subjects also completed a set of own treatment scenarios and a values orientation instrument we find evidence of substantial health related external benefits that vary as expected with the scenario attributes and subjects value orientations the results are consistent with a number of hypotheses offered by the general theoretical analysis of health related externalities and the analysis of externalities specific to health care

robust measures of skewness and kurtosis for macroeconomic and financial time series abstractthe sample skewness and kurtosis of macroeconomic and financial time series are routinely scrutinized in the early stages of model building and are often the central topic of studies in eco

subjective discount rates in the general population and their predictive power for energy saving behavior why do people sometimes refrain from saving energy even if it would pay off in monetary terms subjective discount rates present one possible explanation for this lack of foresight but little is known about their level and reliability in the general population with regard to behavior persons with lower discount rates are expected to accept additional costs upfront more readily than those with higher discount rates based on a representative nation wide study the swiss environmental survey 2007 and a follow up survey our analyses reveal that on average subjective discount rates are well above market interest rates and moderately stable over a time interval of four years income and education are negatively correlated with discount rates contrary to expectations we did not find convincing support for an impact of discount rates on energy saving behavior

labeling energy cost on light bulbs lowers implicit discount rates lighting accounts for nearly 20 of overall u s electricity consumption and 18 of u s residential electricity consumption a transition to alternative energy efficient technologies could reduce this energy consumption considerably to quantify the influence of factors that drive consumer choices for light bulbs we conducted a choice based conjoint field experiment with 183 participants we estimated discrete choice models from the data and found that politically liberal consumers have a stronger preference for compact fluorescent lighting technology and for low energy consumption greater willingness to pay for lower energy consumption and longer life was observed in conditions where estimated operating cost information was provided providing estimated annual cost information to consumers reduced their implicit discount rate by a factor of five lowering barriers to adoption of energy efficient alternatives with higher up front costs however even with cost information provided consumers continued to use implicit discount rates of around 100 which is larger than that experienced for other energy technologies