economic analysis of investment in the rooftop photovoltaic systems a long term research in the two main markets abstract nowadays due to incentive policies the photovoltaic pv installations become an economically attractive investment the different policies aim to reduce the pv installation costs consequently to the deployment of the market in recent years a progressive price decrease of components for pv installations has occurred according their learning curve every doubling of the volume implies approximately a cost reduction of 20 in order to reduce the burden of the incentive rate on the national budget maintaining the economic margin of the investment attractive for investors a progressive tariff decline has also taken place this paper provides a technical economic analysis of investments in pv systems installed on the rooftop considering incentive policies and applies it to some significant case studies in the countries in which pv market is the most prosperous germany and italy the analysis puts into evidence the past and current economic margins of the pv investments since 2006 to 2012 four case studies from 3 kwp to 1 mwp are examined in detail the profitability indexes in terms of net present value and internal rate of return evaluated throughout incentive duration of 20 years become very interesting above all in italy higher than 100 of the installation cost and higher than 10 respectively since 2009 when an abrupt decrement in installation cost occurred in italy the best profit margins occur for large size pv plants and are poorly counterbalanced by the decline of the feed in tariff up to 2012 when a new framework has given a knock to the investments whereas in germany the best margins happen for medium size pv plants and are well adjusted by the feed in tariff however it is predictable that a cut in german feed in tariff will take place because the profit margins have been higher in last year than in the previous years

economic assessment of eucalyptus spp for biomass production as alternative crop in southern italy the increase in energy prices and the stagnation of sales prices of the main agricultural commodities required a rethinking of farm production strategies since during the last years thanks to a series of policies aimed at promoting renewable sources it has been a rapid diffusion of lignocellulosic biomass species this paper aimed at evaluating the economic feasibility of the introduction of eucalyptus eucalyptus spp as energy crop for farmers of southern italy by comparing it with traditional crop rotations in particular economic analysis has been carried out in a representative case study located in the sicilian hilly hinterland where in 2013 it has been built a biomass plant for energy production however results showed that introduction of eucalyptus for biomass production is less profitable for farmers than traditional crops considering the incompressibility of production costs and the actual market price of woodchips

economic analysis of different supporting policies for the production of electrical energy by solar photovoltaics in western european union countries abstract within various renewable energy technologies photovoltaics pv today attracts considerable attention due to its potential to contribute a major share of renewable energy in the future however pv market development is undoubtedly dependent on the political support of any given country in this paper after a brief analysis of national support policies in pv technology in western european union eu countries the authors perform an economic analysis of the main support mechanisms as implemented in the same countries based on the calculation of the cash flow the net present value npv and the internal rate of return irr indices the analysis shows that in some situations support policies can be inconvenient for the owner of the pv based generation system and that in many cases the differences between the implementation of the same support policy in different countries can give rise to significantly different results the analysis carried out in this work could help to assess the impact of pv energy policies in different western european member states renewable energy companies to identify potential pv markets and investigate the policy landscape across western eu countries

economic and policy analysis for solar pv systems in indiana in recent years the energy market in the us and globally is expanding the production of renewable energy solar energy for electricity is also expanding in the us indiana is one of the states expanding solar energy with solar photovoltaic pv systems therefore we conduct benefit cost analysis with several uncertain input variables to determine the economics of adopting solar pv systems in indiana based on policy instruments that could increase adoption of solar pv systems the specific objectives are analyses of the cost distribution of solar pv systems compared with grid electricity in homes and estimating the probability that solar can be cheaper than electricity from grids under different policy combinations we first do the analysis under current policy and then the analysis under potential policy options for a variety of scenarios also the results inform government policy makers on how effective the alternative policies for encouraging solar pv systems are the results show that current policies are important in reducing the cost of solar pv systems however with current policies there is only 50 50 chance of solar being cheaper than electricity from grids if potential policies are implemented solar pv systems can be more economical than grid electricity

inflation and welfare in a monetary economy it is in everyone s private interest to try to get someone else to hold non interest bearing cash and reserves but someone has to hold it all so these efforts must simply cancel out all of us spend several hours per year in this effort and employ thousands of talented and highly trained people to help us these person hours are simply thrown away wasted on a task that should not have to be performed at all

economics of pooling small local electricity prosumers lcoe self consumption abstract the arrival of small scale decentralized energy installations coincides with the emergence of so called prosumers entities households that are producer and consumer of energy in one this research focuses on an electricity prosumer model in the context of the uk market levelized cost of electricity lcoe for photovoltaic pv and wind energy will be modeled for six uk sites additionally self consumption levels for two different load profiles and technologies will be estimated per site the simulations are modeled with homer software and multiple inputs will be varied including natural resource equipment cost maintenance cost equipment life expectancy cost of capital project life and load profiles the modeled self consumption levels show significant differences and varied between 31 and 72 depending on load profile itself and re technologies mixes modeled the pooling of prosumers implied by lower load profile volatility proved to be beneficial to self consumption levels in the modeled scenarios up to 17 6 lcoe showed significant ranges depending on the input parameters and their combination 10 55 p kw h for pv and 2 19 p kw h for wind the combination of these factors is decisive for the final lcoe and the negative effects of less benign factors can be compensated by other parameters when compared to current electricity retail prices of around 15 p kw h around 97 of wind sites and around 4 of pv scenarios implied lcoe reached grid parity the self consumption levels and lcoe analysis indicate the viability of electricity prosumer models

a design of experiments response surface methodology approach to study the economic sustainability of a 1 mwe photovoltaic plant abstract to obtain a rigorous investment analysis for photovoltaic power generation plants a dynamic business plan has been studied it allows us to determine in real time the investment parameters net present value internal rate of return return on investment etc starting from the technical economical financial and positional data the business plan provides as output the exact values of the parameters dependent variables or objective functions basing on the exact values of the input variables independent variables by suitably varying the independent variables it is possible to obtain a sensitivity analysis on the dependent variables due to which different evaluations about the investment in multiple pre set scenarios can be obtained on the other hand by using the business plan as data creator and then applying the response surface methodology techniques it has been possible to obtain mathematical functions regression meta models which are able to explain the link among dependent and independent variables in the definition range this approach allows to generate a sort of k dimensional state equation of order n for the different investigated economic parameters these equations provide in the chosen dimensional space two or three dimensional a view of the dependent variable behaviour e g net present value internal rate of return while changing one or two independent variables e g government incentives discount rate the descriptive ability of this approach has a higher level in terms of quality and reliability than a traditional sensitivity analysis in this paper a case study about a 1 mwe photovoltaic plant located in liguria north italy and a comparison with a similar plant located in sicily south italy are also presented

the long term impact of military service on health evidence from world war ii and korean war veterans during the world war ii and korean war era the u s military freely distributed cigarettes to overseas personnel and provided low cost tobacco products on domestic military bases in fact even today the military continues to sell subsidized tobacco products on its bases using a variety of instrumental variables approaches to deal with nonrandom selection into the military and into smoking we provide substantial evidence that cohorts with higher military participation rates subsequently suffered more premature mortality more importantly we show that a large fraction 35 to 79 percent of the excess veteran deaths due to heart disease and lung cancer are attributable to military induced smoking

distributed solar renewable generation option contracts with renewable energy credit uncertainty abstract solar energy is rapidly emerging thanks to the decreasing installation cost of solar panels and the renewable portfolio standard imposed by state governments which gave birth to the renewable energy credit rec and the alternative compliance payment acp to make profits from the rec market in addition to reduced energy costs more and more home and business owners choose to install solar panels recently third party financing has become a common practice in solar panel investments we discuss optimal timing for the host to potentially buy back the solar panels after being installed for a period of time and how to incorporate the optimal timing into a power purchase agreement between the host and the third party developer because the rec price is a major source of uncertainty and also due to the acp capping the rec price we first propose a rec price forecasting model that specifically considers the acp values then by a modified real option structure we model the buyback contract as a real option and solve it with an approximate dynamic program based monte carlo simulation method we find that as the acp value increases the value of the buyback option also increases under optimal timing the method used does not only apply to solar projects but also to other distributed renewable projects that are third party financed such as wind generations

environmental efficiency of investments in renewable energy comparative analysis at macroeconomic level abstract this paper aims to bring into attention the concept of renewable energy investments efficiency and to study one of the three concepts related to it namely environmental efficiency of investments in renewable energy the analysis is undertaken at macroeconomic level for several countries in europe some of them are member states of european union and were observed over the period between 1990 and 2008 the method assumes the study of the econometric models based on kaya identity an equation widely used in studies regarding emissions trends and future emissions scenarios working with time series and cross sectional data a panel data approach is needed indicators like energy intensity co 2 intensity and gross domestic product per capita and per unit of investment are used as they establish a connection between effects and efforts a prerequisite for studying the efficiency a novelty of this research lies in the calculation of environmental efficiency index after an original method proposed by authors the findings of this analysis reveal that there are both countries with high and low environmental efficiency of investments in renewable energy

grid parity and self consumption with photovoltaic systems under the present regulatory framework in spain the case of the university of jaen campus abstract the cut off of any subsidy or feed in tariff that incentives the installation of new renewable energy systems which are close to the grid parity is a reality in most of the european countries but in the recent years the grid parity has worsened because of the global economic crisis in the case of spain in addition to the economic problems the photovoltaic sector has been dramatically damaged through a changeable regulatory framework an excessive bureaucracy and the inclusion of additional fees or possible back up tolls that are very prejudicial for the deployment of this sector nowadays the current spanish legislation mentions the possibility of self consumption totally or partially of the electricity generated by pv or any renewable energy systems but up to the date of this work the law that regulates the administrative technical and economic conditions for the net metering of the electrical energy produced within the consumer s network is still under a draft stage in this paper it is analyzed the case of the university of jaen where it has been identified and simulated several pv systems on the roofs and parking lots of the university campus and considering the current electrical tariffs hourly defined for the case of high power and high voltage consumers it has been done a cost and economic analysis as a result it has been obtained an average levelised cost of energy around 0 125 kwh 1 a discount payback time of 17 5 years or less a positive net present value and a nominal internal rate of return of 8 48 in the worst case beyond that it has been carried out a sensitivity analysis of the factors that have more influence in the profitability of these systems like the initial investment cost the pv electricity yield additional taxes and the variations in the electricity price market

motivators for adoption of photovoltaic systems at grid parity a case study from southern germany in some countries photovoltaic pv technology is at a stage of development at which it can compete with conventional electricity sources in terms of electricity generation costs i e grid parity a case in point is germany where the pv market has reached a mature stage the policy support has scaled down and the diffusion rate of pv systems has declined this development raises a fundamental question what are the motives to adopt pv systems at grid parity the point of departure for the relevant literature has been on the impact of policy support adopters and recently local solar companies however less attention has been paid to the motivators for adoption at grid parity this paper presents an in depth analysis of the diffusion of pv systems explaining the impact of policy measures adopters and system suppliers anchored in an extensive and exploratory case study in germany we provide a context specific explanation to the motivations to adopt pv systems at grid parity

economic performance and policies for grid connected residential solar photovoltaic systems in brazil abstract we analyze the economic competitiveness of grid connected distributed solar photovoltaic generation through small scale rooftop installations in five brazilian state capitals the locations represent a comprehensive set of the two essential parameters for the economic viability of pv solar irradiation and local electricity tariffs levelized electricity costs lec for pv generation and net present values npv for a specific pv system are presented the analysis comprises three different interest rate scenarios reflecting different conditions for capital acquisition to finance the generators subsidized mature market and country specific risk adjusted interest in the npv analysis revenue flow is modeled by the sale of pv electricity at current residential tariffs assuming net metering using subsidized interest rates the analysis shows that solar pv electricity is already competitive in brazil while in the country specific risk adjusted rate the declining but still high capital costs of pv make it economically unfeasible at a mature market interest rate pv competitiveness is largely dependent on the residential tariff economic competitiveness in this scenario is given for locations with high residential tariffs we demonstrate the high potential of distributed generation with photovoltaic installations in brazil and show that under certain conditions grid connected pv can be economically competitive in a developing country

a review of uncertainties in technology experience curves abstract the use of log linear experience curves or learning curves relating reductions in the unit cost of technologies to their cumulative production or installed capacity has become a common method of representing endogenous technical change in energy economic models used for policy analysis yet there are significant uncertainties in such formulations whose impact on key model results have been insufficiently examined or considered this paper reviews the major types of uncertainty in log linear experience curves and their effect on projected rates of cost reduction uncertainties are found not only in the learning rate parameter of a log linear model but also in the functional form that determines the shape of an experience curve evidence for alternative forms such as an s shaped curve is reviewed along with case studies that demonstrate the uncertainties associated with cost increases during early commercialization of a technology a phenomena that is widely recognized but rarely quantified or incorporated in learning models additional factors discussed include the effects of learning discontinuities institutional forgetting and the influence of social economic and political factors we then review other models of causality which aim to improve modelers ability to explain and predict the influence of other underlying processes that contribute to technology cost reductions in addition to learning ignoring other types of underlying mechanisms can create a false sense of precision and overestimate the true contribution of learning currently however uncertainties in such multi factor models remain large due to the difficulties of estimating key parameters such as private sector r d investments and extending models of a specific technology to a broader suite of technologies and cost projections pending the development and validation of more robust models of technological change we suggest ways to significantly improve the characterization and reporting of current learning model uncertainties and their impacts on the results of energy economic models to help reduce the potential for drawing inappropriate or erroneous policy conclusions

a historical review of promotion strategies for electricity from renewable energy sources in eu countries abstract the core objective of this paper is to elaborate on historically implemented promotion strategies of renewable energy sources and the associated deployment within the european electricity market hence at a first glance the historic development of renewable energy sources in the electricity res e sector is addressed on member state and on sectoral level as well as consequently discussed according to available res e potentials and costs the specific focus of this paper are promotion strategies for res e options as they are the key driver of an efficient and effective res e deployment therefore the paper depicts the main types of different promotion schemes and their properties additionally several cases studies of different european member states show an in depth analysis of the different res e promotion schemes in this context special emphasises are put on the question of effective and efficient promotion scheme designs of different res e technologies generally conducted research led to the conclusion that technology specific financial support measures of res e performed much more effective and efficient than others did hence it is not all about the common question of feed in tariffs vs quota systems based on tradable green certificates but more about the design criteria of implemented res e support schemes

optimal installation of small hydropower plant a review abstract most of the countries have access to large amounts of water through rivers and canal with this renewable resource electricity can be generated without polluting the environment because of the increasing in electricity demand it is important to estimate the future potential of hydropower it would then be possible to plan development through mix of energy and implement measures to control the development of the electricity market by the use of sustainable small hydropower projects in the present paper attempt has been made to review the different types of model developed to evaluate the cost of the small hydropower projects a review on the different types of correlations developed by earlier investigators has also been presented the present review attempts to cover the benefits such as clean development mechanism cdm internal rate of return irr for financial viability of such projects a review on the different types of optimization techniques is also been presented to minimize the cost of the installation of shp projects

money supply and capital accumulation on the transition path revisited fischer 1979 and asako 1983 analyze the sign of the correlation between the growth rate of money and the rate of capital accumulation on the transition path both plug a constant relative risk aversion utility based on a cobb douglas and a leontief function respectively into sidrauski s model yet return contrasting results the present analysis by using a more general ces utility presents both of those settings and conclusions as limiting cases and generates economic figures more consistent with reality e g the interest rate elasticity of the money demands derived from those previous works is necessarily 1 and 0 respectively

the extraction of natural resources the role of thermodynamic efficiency abstract the modelling of production in microeconomics has been the subject of heated debate the controversial issues include the substitutability between production inputs the role of time and the economic consequences of irreversibility in the production process a case in point is the use of cobb douglas type production functions which completely ignore the physical process underlying the production of a good we examine these issues in the context of the production of a basic commodity such as copper or aluminium we model the extraction and the refinement of a valuable substance which is mixed with waste material in a way which is fully consistent with the physical constraints of the process the resulting analytical description of production unambiguously reveals that perfect substitutability between production inputs fails if a corrected thermodynamic approach is used we analyze the equilibrium pricing of a commodity extracted in an irreversible way we force consumers to purchase goods using energy as the means of payment and force the firm to account in terms of energy the resulting market provides the firm with a form of reversibility of its use of energy under an energy numeraire energy resources will naturally be used in a more parsimonious way

environmental and economic analysis of building integrated photovoltaic systems in italian regions abstract solar energy is a form of renewable energy that can be used to combat climate change through an environmentally accepted energy supply policy with support from both private and public consumers there are numerous factors contributing to the definition of the economic and environmental performance of solar energy investments such as average annual irradiation consumers consumption feed in tariff incentive system energy portfolio emissions produced by the photovoltaic system rated power of the individual modules disposable income of the investor availability of surface for the installation of the photovoltaic panels and mission that characterise the project environmental maximisation economic maximisation or self sufficiency of the system during the first year given the particular geographical position of italy the economic profitability and environmental impact of such system were estimated first on the provincial scale and then on the regional scale to delineate the general characteristics that are not caused by a single scenario the indicators used include the following net present value npv internal rate of return irr discounted payback period dpbp discounted aggregate cost benefit ratio bcr and reduction of emissions of carbon dioxide ercd the ultimate objective of the paper is to define the number of photovoltaic pv systems necessary to reach the target of renewable energy production in the above settings a general scenario appropriate to achieve this goal as well as implementing the total wealth generated by this framework and the reduction of co2 emissions resulting from the implementation of that plan will be examined the indicators used are total net present value per capita and reduction of carbon dioxide emissions per capita

role of renewable energy investment in india an alternative to co2 mitigation abstract this paper discusses the potential of renewable energy investment and co2 mitigation by renewable energy technologies currently india s per capita emissions are around one tonne of co2 year the present energy scene offers india a window of opportunity to invest in renewable energy the annual turnover of renewable energy industry has reached 12 3 billion in 2011 which is 36 higher than 2010 investment of 7 5 billion increasing the share of renewable energy in overall energy mix is an effective option to mitigate co2 emission presently the share of renewable energy is around 12 in the energy mix the present study estimated co2 mitigation potential of indian renewable energy sector about 203 million tonnes with an installed capacity of 24 gw in 2012 however enormous potential identified in renewable energy sector with favorable co2 mitigation the government is compromising with limited financial resources however policy efforts need to be strengthened to encourage a massive scale up of renewable technologies to build sustained low carbon economy

the effect of current and prospective policies on photovoltaic system economics an application to the us midwest abstract this study models fundamental features of current and prospective policies encouraging adoption of residential photovoltaic pv systems a key finding is that time of day tod pricing can enhance or worsen the economics of pv systems moreover increased responsiveness of electricity demand to its price diminishes the effectiveness of tod pricing in the absence of net metering but does not affect it otherwise an application to plausible conditions in the state of indiana usa shows that current policies are unlikely to trigger adoption by a risk neutral forward looking residential customer however adoption of pv systems can be induced if the federal tax credit is increased to cover 48 of capital cost instead of the current 30 which could imply a cost to the federal government of about 0 95 kw of installed capacity depending on the panel s size we demonstrate that implementation of tod pricing can trigger adoption under a range of on and off peak price combinations but our analysis also shows that the cost effectiveness of tod pricing is enhanced at higher ratios of on peak to off peak prices

an analysis of the greek photovoltaic market abstract the number of photovoltaic applications has increased slightly over the last 10 years in greece with a forecasted 40 increase in the annual rate of sales over the next few years a target similar to the rest of the eu member states this article i presents an analysis of the current situation on the photovoltaic market in greece and attempts to segment this market ii investigates the existing incentives policy as well as the crucial barriers for the wide dissemination of the photovoltaic applications and iii records the market actors aspects and predictions for the future furthermore in order to supply essential information for business development the current investment and legislative framework is presented

let s do it ourselves individual motivations for investing in renewables at community level renewable energy communities have multiplied the last years in many countries even in contexts that the structural conditions are not favorable the paper analyses individual motivations for partaking in local renewable projects and generating energy jointly in an investment community in order to inform policy debates on how to support such communities to do so we applied a socio psychological approach for studying renewable energy communities in germany and the netherlands our results show that mainly gain such as decreasing energy costs and normative such as addressing climate change considerations played a role in the decision but in the background hedonic motivations were also present such as having fun and integrating in a community each of the groups examined emerged in already existing strong communities where trust was relatively high which seems to be an important condition for the realization of local energy projects consequently we argue that tailor made incentives addressing the different types of motivations can be more effective for the support and spread of renewable energy communities

on the integrability of money demand functions by the sidrauski and the shopping time models abstract this paper investigates which properties money demand functions must satisfy so that they are consistent with lucas s lucas jr r e 2000 inflation and welfare econometrica 68 247 274 versions of the sidrauski and the shopping time models we conclude that shopping time integrable money demand functions are necessarily also sidrauski integrable but that the converse is not necessarily true unless a boundedness assumption on the nominal interest rate is made both the log log with an interest rate elasticity greater than or equal to one and the semi log money demands may serve as counterexamples all the models and results are also extended to the case in which there are several assets in the economy performing monetary functions

why do electricity prices jump empirical evidence from the nordic electricity market the paper empirically explores the possible causes behind electricity price jumps in the nordic electricity market nord pool a time series model a mixed garch earji jump model capturing the com

economic guideline about financial utilization of flat plate solar collectors fpscs for the consumer segment in the city of eskisehir abstract solar energy systems yield energy savings relative to conventional systems by considering the ecological balance although it still has barriers the most commonly used system of this type is fpsc in turkey which produces hot water by absorbing solar energy through fpscs this study is a kind of guidance about utilization of fpscs in eskisehir that concentrates on a consumer segment the aim of the study is displaying the necessity of transition to renewable energy systems in the local free markets where the place of domestic resources the data is supplied from an original hand collected survey and turkish governmental institutions such as the central bank of the republic of turkey cbrt and the turkish statistical institute turkstat that is used for a possible scenario to show how these systems can become an extensive investment and financed in the city the most significant finding is purchasing a fpsc device which is a rational and profitable investment decision for households in the economic conditions of eskisehir this type of energy system has certain costs including installation credit and annual maintenance costs however after they have been set up fpsc systems yield many ecological advantages that more than offset the associated costs such as fuel savings over the long term and exemptions from tax payments that apply to other types of fuels these advantages benefit both the environment on a global scale and the region in which the system is constructed therefore the global and local economy can improve its structure by utilizing fpscs

techno economic evaluation of small hydro power plants in greece a complete sensitivity analysis abstract hydropower has by far been the most mature renewable energy resource used for electricity generation in our planet recently the investors interest was whipped up by the mass development of small hydropower shp stations as they are the most prosperous for additional hydropower penetration in developed electricity markets in greece the increasing interest for building shp stations got off the ground since 1994 ever since an enormous number of requests keep piling up in the greek regulatory authority of energy and the ministry of development with the object of creating new shp stations of total capacity over 600 mw the present work is concentrated on the systematic investigation of the techno economic viability of shp stations the study is concluded by a sensitivity analysis properly adapted for the local market financial situation in order to enlighten the decision makers on the expected profitability of the capital to be invested according to the results obtained the predicted internal rate of return irr values are greater than 18 for most shp cases analysed finally as per the sensitivity analysis carried out the installation capacity factor the local market electricity price annual escalation rate and the reduced first installation cost are found to be the parameters that mostly affect the viability of similar ventures

real options theory applied to electricity generation projects a review abstract real options ro theory is well known for enhancing the value of projects under uncertainty this is achieved by modelling the flexibility that managers possess to adjust the projects in response to changes in their environments based on this ro theory could be used to tackle current energy and environmental issues by enhancing the value of electricity generation projects egp especially renewable energy projects rep the potential of ro theory to increase the value of egp and rep has been a driver for new research in the topic however existing literature is still scarce diverse and tends to neglect the state of the art of ro theory e g ro in the design of projects ro studies tend to ignore the use of ro in the design of projects as they are difficult to formulate without the help of experts on the projects designs this paper aims to encourage novel research in the application of ro theory to egp and rep for this purpose a critical review of ro theory its state of the art and its applications to egp and rep is presented this review identifies current areas of interest and gaps in knowledge in this research area it is concluded that new and novel ro research should address the state of the art of ro theory and uncertainties that are exclusive for specific types of projects this future research will require the involvement of electrical engineers specialised in the design of egp and rep

revisiting the techno economic analysis process for building mounted grid connected solar photovoltaic systems part two application part one in this two part paper identified monte carlo analysis as an improved approach over traditional deterministic techno economic methods for solar pv prosumers in deregulated markets in this

assessing the strength and effectiveness of renewable electricity feed in tariffs in european union countries in the last two decades feed in tariffs fit have emerged as one of the most popular policies for supporting renewable electricity res e generation a few studies have assessed the effectiveness of res e policies but most ignore policy design features and market characteristics e g electricity price and production cost that influence policy strength we employ 1992 2008 panel data to conduct the first econometric analysis of the effectiveness of fit policies in promoting solar photovoltaic pv and onshore wind power development in 26 european union countries we develop a new indicator for fit strength that captures variability in tariff size contract duration digression rate and electricity price and production cost to estimate the resulting return on investment we regress this indicator on added res e capacity using a fixed effects specification and find that fit policies have driven solar pv development in the eu however this effect is overstated without controlling for country characteristics and is concealed without accounting for policy design we do not find robust evidence that fit policies have driven wind power development overall we show that the interaction of policy design electricity price and electricity production cost is a more important determinant of res e development than policy enactment alone

profitability analysis of grid connected photovoltaic facilities for household electricity self sufficiency abstract spain exhibits a high level of energy dependence and has significant solar energy resources these two facts have given rise to the prominence that renewable energy particularly solar photovoltaic technology has enjoyed in recent years supported by a favorable regulatory framework currently the spanish government is providing new ways in energy policy to enhance and accelerate the development of low power photovoltaic generation facilities for self consumption by introducing energy policies for feed in payments of surplus electricity such facilities are an example of distributed electrical generation with important benefits for the environment and the rest of the electrical system because when properly managed they can help improve the system s stability and reduce overall losses by analyzing household demand and solar photovoltaic energy resources the profitability of such facilities is considered in this article taking into account the technical and economic impact of storage systems and proposing models for feed in payments of surplus electricity in an attempt to assess whether this method of electricity generation versus the method of conventionally supplied power from a grid at a regulated tariff can rival each other economically in terms of parity

the need for improved financial reporting of a developing country energy utility abstract some consideration has been given to regulatory and institutional reforms to facilitate sustainable development in electricity usage in papua new guinea but little attention has been paid to bringing about full compliance of financial reporting expectations of the country s main energy utility examining documentary evidence of the audit reports of the auditor general s office of papua new guinea this study considers the financial reporting compliance of png power for the period 2007 2013 and the means by which compliant reporting may be improved the results of the study reveal that the financial statements of png power are late and receive disclaimers of opinion from the auditor general s office which suggest that png power s stakeholders are not receiving accurate and reliable financial information to make informed decisions about sustainable development of electricity usage and planning in papua new guinea the study reveals that it would take little resources to improve png power s reporting which in turn could enhance national energy policy decision making and energy utility accountability

do consumers discount the future correctly a market based valuation of residential fuel switching abstract dsm and energy efficiency options are generally evaluated using engineering oriented discounted cash flow procedures which value all cost and benefit streams using a single arbitrary discount rate usually the firm s weighted average cost of capital wacc the wacc based approach ignores financial risk and hence leads to unreliable results in a recent paper in this journal hassett and metcalf depart from this tradition they reflect financial risk by simulating the total variability of returns from energy saving investments their findings indicate that dsm projects are potentially risky suggesting that the net benefits must be discounted at significantly higher rates thus lowering their present values this paper presents a market based evaluation of a particular dsm option residential fuel switching using the capital asset pricing model capm under the capm approach a risk adjusted market based discount rate is estimated for each cost stream fuel maintenance and avoided outlays for electricity the market based results which reflect the systematic risk of each cost stream suggest that fuel switching is probably not cost effective because it is considerably more risky than indicated by a wacc based analysis this supports hassett and metcalf s conclusion that consumers who reject dsm projects are not necessarily acting irrationally

the market value of variable renewables the effect of solar wind power variability on their relative price this paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the market value of variable renewable energy vre the inherent variability of wind speeds and solar radiation affects the price that vre generators receive on the market market value during windy and sunny times the additional electricity supply reduces the prices because the drop is larger with more installed capacity the market value of vre falls with higher penetration rate this study aims to develop a better understanding on how the market value with penetration and how policies and prices affect the market value quantitative evidence is derived from a review of published studies regression analysis of market data and the calibrated model of the european electricity market emma we find the value of wind power to fall from 110 of the average power price to 50 80 as wind penetration increases from zero to 30 of total electricity consumption for solar power similarly low value levels are reached already at 15 penetration hence competitive large scale renewable deployment will be more difficult to accomplish than as many anticipate

the economic viability of commercial wind plants in greece a complete sensitivity analysis abstract the influence of the governing techno economic parameters on the economic behaviour of commercial wind parks is investigated for this purpose a complete cost benefit analysis model properly adapted for the greek market is developed in order to calculate the pay back period and the economic efficiency of similar investments in the energy production sector moreover the impact of various parameters such as capital cost return on investment index local inflation rate index electricity price escalation rate installation capacity factor m o cost turn on key cost of the power plant size of wind turbines used on the economic viability and attractiveness is extensively investigated using a well elaborated simple expert system type numerical code finally the prediction results are summarised in a representative sensitivity analysis map including the most reasonable economic scenarios taking into account the analytical results of the proposed study along with the existence of high wind potential regions in greece a remarkable growth of the wind energy sector is expected in the near future leading to considerable investment profits and offering a strong position share of the liberalised local power market

the health effects of military service evidence from the vietnam draft i introduction the impact of military service on long term health is reemerging as a vital policy question as the united states conducts major military operations in iraq and afghanistan health professionals have raised concerns that significant numbers of the veterans of these conflicts are experiencing psychological and physical health problems the department of veterans affairs estimates that anywhere from 12 to 20 of servicemen returning from iraq suffer from posttraumatic stress disorder which the medical literature suggests can have a long term adverse effect on an individual s health in the 2005 fiscal year the department of veterans affairs spent about 32 billion dollars on medical care for veterans a substantial liability for the american taxpayer thus understanding the long term health impacts of military service is important both for allocating treatment resources and for correctly estimating the cost of waging these two wars comparing the health of veterans with that of nonveterans may not give us credible estimates of the effect of military service people voluntarily enlisting in the military differ in their observable characteristics from those who do not these observable differences between veterans and nonveterans leave us concerned that cross sectional estimates of the long term health consequences of military service will be biased by systematic differences in the unobservable characteristics of the two groups for this reason we use the draft lottery implemented during the vietnam war as an instrument for military service the draft lottery required randomly selected men born between 1944 and 1952 to report for possible induction into the military we use confidential versions of the 19742004 national health interview surveys nhis 1 to examine the impact of military service on veterans health we focus on the 67 608 men who were born between 1950 and 1952 because as we document this is the cohort most affected by the vietnam draft lottery we begin with a cross sectional comparison of veterans and nonveterans which reveals that veterans are in systematically worse health than nonveterans and that these health disparities increase with age these estimates probably overstate the causal effect of military service because veterans differ systematically from nonveterans on dimensions such as education that are strongly associated with adverse health when we correct for this problem using draft status to instrument for military service we find that despite a very strong first stage relationship between draft eligibility and military service the 2 stage least squares 2sls estimates of the impact of military service on health are fairly imprecise for most of the outcomes we examine the confidence intervals from the 2sls regressions containing both zero and the point estimate from the cross sectional regression this paper makes two contributions to the literature first unlike the cross sectional literature on the impact of military service on health the instrumental variables approach used in this paper provides unbiased estimates second this paper documents that though the vietnam lottery very significantly increased military service it led to only a modest increase in combat exposure 2 in the following section we discuss the existing literature on veterans health and on the impact of the vietnam era draft in section iii we describe our primary data source the nhis in section iv we discuss the research methodology and some of the issues that complicate the use of draft eligibility as an instrument section v discusses our results and section vi concludes ii previous literature there is a significant literature documenting the disproportionate prevalence of health problems among military veterans hoge et al 2004 find that mental health problems are common in veterans who served in iraq and afghanistan

quantifying the impact of r d on pv project financing costs abstract energy technology research and development r d typically focuses on advancing the performance and reducing equipment and installation costs however such r d can also have significant indirect impacts on other factors incorporating the impact that r d activities have on financing costs can provide a more complete picture of the consequences of these decisions and may allow policymakers to make better decisions in this paper we discuss some historical examples of r d impacting financing costs in the solar energy sector summarize the areas of r d that can impact financing and describe methodological approaches that can be used to quantify the impact of r d on financing costs and as a result the levelized cost of energy lcoe we estimate that r d driven reductions in financing costs in the solar sector from current levels to low risk levels could reduce lcoe approximately 25 alternatively without the r d advances needed to prevent future risks and complications financing costs in the solar sector could increase by as much as 115

customer economics of residential photovoltaic systems sensitivities to changes in wholesale market design and rate structures abstract the customer economics of u s residential photovoltaics pv often depend on retail electricity rates because most utilities compensate customer sited pv generation via net metering the future bill savings from net metering are uncertain and dependent on retail rate structures wholesale market design and renewable penetration levels among other factors we explore the impact of the following assumptions on the bill savings from residential pv a wholesale electricity market design with a price cap as opposed to an energy only market a retail rate with a fixed customer charge as opposed to a fully volumetric rate and increasing block pricing as opposed to a non varying flat rate a wholesale price cap can dampen the expected bill savings erosion due to moving from a low to a high renewables scenario for customers with time varying rates and net metering moving from a fully volumetric rate to a two part tariff rate with a fixed customer charge could severely erode the bill savings under net metering because pv generation could only displace the reduced volumetric portion of the rate finally increasing block pricing might have an even greater impact on the bill savings from behind the meter pv than the other uncertainties explored in this paper

exploring renewable energy pricing with analytic network process comparing a developed and a developing economy abstract increasing use of renewable sources has a vital importance in mitigating increasing energy demand and global warming the limited reserves and negative environmental impacts associated with fossil fuel consumption make the renewable energy sources considerable alternatives in case environmental externalities are taken into consideration pricing models for renewable energy alternatives are commonly based on the same fundamentals as the fossil fuels but this approach neglects some of the characteristics that are unique to renewable energy alternatives in order to develop more accurate pricing models these unique variables which are mostly considered as market externalities need to be integrated in the current forms of pricing models the originality of this work is its ability to combine social technical environmental and economic aspects using analytic network process in order to provide a more holistic point of view on factors impacting renewable energy pricing through a comparison of two case studies united states u s and turkey are the two cases analyzed in this paper u s represents a developed economy whereas turkey represents a developing economy it is expected that the results of this work would be helpful for further research in understanding the dynamics behind pricing mechanism of the renewable sources in different environments for instance fundamental differences in relative importance of pricing factors between two case countries have been identified as different levels of enforcement through laws and regulations impact of geographic characteristics on site selection and job opportunities created through new investments

how renewables will change electricity markets in the next five years photovoltaic pv cells onshore wind turbines internet technologies and storage technologies have the potential to fundamentally change electricity markets in the years ahead photovoltaic cells are the most disruptive energy technology as they allow consumers of all sizes to produce power by themselves new actors in the power market can begin operating with a new bottom up control logic unsubsidised pv markets may start to take off in 2013 fuelling substantial growth where pv power is getting cheaper than grid or diesel backup electricity for commercial consumers managing loads and achieving a good match between power consumption and weather dependent power production will likely become a key issue this consumption production balance may trigger massive innovation and investment in energy management technologies involving different kinds of storage and controls increasing autonomy and flexibility of consumers challenges the top down control logic of traditional power supply and pushes for a more decentralised and multi layered system how rapidly and smoothly this transformation occurs depends to a large extent on the adaptation speed of the regulatory framework and on the ability of market players to develop appropriate business models the paper discusses conflicts of interest hurdles and drivers opportunities and traps for this perspective

comparative economic analysis of supporting policies for residential solar pv in the united states solar renewable energy credit srec potential numerous studies and market reports suggest that the solar photovoltaic markets rely heavily if not entirely upon governmental support policies at present unlike in other countries where these policies are enacted at a national level the 50 states in the us pursue different policies in an attempt to foster the growth of renewable energy and specifically solar photovoltaics this paper provides an economic and financial analysis of the us federal and state level policies in states with solar targeted policies that have solar renewable energy credits srec markets after putting a value on srecs this study further compares solar carve outs with other incentives including the federal tax credit net metering and state personal tax credits our findings show that srec markets can certainly be strong with new jersey delaware and massachusetts having the most potential despite their strong potential as effective renewable policies the lack of a guaranteed minimum and the uncertainty attached are major drawbacks of srec markets however the leveraging of this high value offers hope that the policies will indeed stimulate residential solar photovoltaic markets

why money growth determines inflation in the long run answering the woodford critique woodford 2007 argues that it is not appropriate to regard inflation in the steady state of new keynesian models as determined by steady state money growth woodford instead argues that the intercept term in the monetary authority s interest rate policy rule determines steady state inflation in this paper i offer an alternative interpretation of steady state behavior according to which it is appropriate to regard steady state inflation as determined by steady state money growth the argument relies on traditional interpretations of the central bank s power in the long run and appeals to model properties that are common to textbook and new keynesian analysis according to this argument the only way the central bank can control interest rates in the long run is via affecting inflation and its only means available for determining inflation is by determining the money growth rate

the dynamics of solar pv costs and prices as a challenge for technology forecasting an effective energy technology strategy has to balance between setting a stable long term framework for innovation while also responding to more immediate changes in technology cost and performance over the last decade rather than a steady progression along an established learning curve pv costs and prices have been volatile with increases or plateaus followed by rapid reductions the paper describes and considers the causes of recent changes in pv costs and prices at module and system level both international trends and more place specific contexts it finds that both module and system costs and price trends have reflected multiple overlapping forces established forecasting methods experience curves and engineering assessments have limited ability to capture key learning effects behind recent pv cost and price trends production scale effects industrial re organization and shakeouts international trade practices and national market dynamics these forces are likely to remain prominent aspect of technology learning effects in the foreseeable future and so are in need of improved more explicit representation in energy technology forecasting

a decision support tool for the analysis of pricing investment and regulatory processes in a decentralized electricity market abstract after the liberalization of the electricity generation industry capacity expansion decisions are made by multiple self oriented power companies unlike the centralized environment decision making of market participants is now guided by price signal feedbacks and by an imperfect foresight of the future market conditions and competitor actions that they will face in such an environment decision makers need to better understand long term dynamics of the supply and demand sides of the power market in this study a system dynamics model is developed to better understand and analyze the decentralized and competitive electricity market dynamics in the long run the developed simulation model oversees a 20 year planning horizon it includes a demand module a capacity expansion module a power generation module an accounting and finance module various competitors a regulatory body and a bidding mechanism many features singularities and tools of decentralized markets such as capacity withholding enforced divestment long term contracts price elastic demands incentives disincentives are also incorporated into the model public regulators and power companies are potential users of the model for learning and decision support in policy design and strategic planning results of scenario analysis are presented to illustrate potential use of the model

economic evaluation of short rotation coppice systems for energy from biomass a review abstract since economic profitability is the most important factor for the adoption of short rotation coppice src for energy from biomass our objective was to analyze and summarize published knowledge about the economic evaluation of src of 37 studies 43 reported economic viability of src in comparison to a reference system whereas 19 stated economic disadvantages of src and 38 reported mixed results depending on the underlying assumptions we found a wide variety of underlying assumptions underlying costs process chains and methods used to evaluate src systems of the 37 studies 8 used static approaches of capital budgeting 84 used dynamic approaches and 8 applied approaches in which uncertainties were taken into account due to the long term nature of investment in src and therewith the uncertain development of sensitive assumptions approaches which consider uncertainties were best suited for economic evaluation the profitability of src was found to be most sensitive to the price for biomass and biomass yield but site specific biomass data was lacking despite the wide variation within each cost unit costs for land rent harvesting chipping and establishment consistently made up the largest proportion of overall costs and should therefore be chosen carefully we close with suggestions for improving the economic evaluation of src and enhancing traceability and comparability of calculations

gun prevalence and suicide abstract in light of the ongoing debate over tighter firearm regulations this paper considers the relationship between gun prevalence and suicide i exploit a reform in switzerland that reduced the prevalence of military issued guns in private households in switzerland military service is compulsory for men and military issued guns account for nearly half of the total number of firearms available the results show that the firearm suicide rate decreases by 9 for a reduction in gun prevalence of 1000 guns per 100 000 inhabitants the elasticity of gun suicides with respect to firearm prevalence is 0 48 but converges towards zero for low levels of gun prevalence the overall suicide rate is negatively and significantly related to firearm prevalence which indicates that non gun methods of suicide are not perfect replacements for firearms

rent seizing and environmental concerns a parametric valuation of the italian hydropower sector abstract this paper is the first attempt to estimate the hydroelectricity rent in italy as several concessions are about to expire and the first to analyze the implications of different redistribution mechanisms due to budgetary constraints local authorities want to capture a higher part of the rent thought to be considerable at the same time the renewal procedure entails the implementation of environmental mitigation measures as set forth in the water framework directive hence rent seizing and environmental protection generate a major trade off we focus our analysis on the county of sondrio home to 18 of the overall hydropower capacity where the first renewals will take place we obtain the highest rent ever estimated for hydropower production averaging from 30 3 mwh to 82 4 mwh these high values explain why local authorities are pushing for the introduction of a 30 revenue sharing fee as they would earn almost 90 of the rent much more than the 50 currently seized albeit satisfying the rent seizing objective the proposed fee hinders the implementation of costly mitigation measures in this paper we advocate the adoption of a resource rent tax as we show that it would reduce the trade off between rent seizing and environmental protection

energy and economic analysis for large scale integration of small photovoltaic systems in buildings the case of a public location in southern spain abstract the integration of grid connected pv systems into buildings or public areas is one of the most usual applications of the photovoltaic solar energy in developed countries and it is being highly promoted by several european governments in this paper it has been evaluated the photovoltaic potential of the campus of the university of jaen and it has been defined possible areas where the pv systems could be installed according to power requirements space possibilities the electrical configuration of the campus and some social integration requirements too the definition of the pv potential together with a technical analysis for the calculation of the energy generated is the previous step for carrying out an economic and cost analysis in order to certify the profitability of these systems in general particularizing the study for the case of this university located in southern spain the pv electricity cost generated has been calculated through the concept levelised cost of electricity lcoe where in our case is estimated to be around 0 13 0 14 kwh 1 the results obtained in this economic analysis recommend the implementation of pv grid connected systems pvgcs as the internal rate of return reaches a maximum value of 6 21 the net present value is positive and the discounted payback time is around 16 years an additional sensitive analysis shows the influence that some parameters have on the lcoe specially the initial investment the energy yield and the nominal discount rate

monopsony power pay structure and training although interest in monopsonistic influences on labor market outcomes has revived in recent years only a few empirical studies provide direct evidence on this topic in this article the authors analyze the effect of monopsony power on pay structure using a direct measure of labor market thinness the authors find evidence of monopsony power as firms facing fewer local competitors offer lower wages to skilled labor and trainees but not to unskilled labor the findings have important implications for the economic theory of training as most recent models assume monopsonistic pay setting for skilled labor but not for trainees

uncertainty loss aversion and markets for energy efficiency increasing energy efficiency is critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion reducing oil dependence and achieving a sustainable global energy system the tendency of markets to neglect apparently cost effective energy efficiency options has been called the efficiency gap or energy paradox the market for energy efficiency in new energy using durable goods however appears to have a bias that leads to undervaluation of future energy savings relative to their expected value this paper argues that the bias is chiefly produced by the combination of substantial uncertainty about the net value of future fuel savings and the loss aversion of typical consumers this framework relies on the theory of context dependent preferences the uncertainty loss aversion bias against energy efficiency is quantifiable making it potentially correctible by policy measures the welfare economics of such policies remains unresolved data on the costs of increased fuel economy of new passenger cars taken from a national research council study illustrate how an apparently cost effective increase in energy efficiency would be uninteresting to loss averse consumers

photovoltaic smart grids in the prosumers investment decisions a real option model abstract the digitization of power system represents one of the main instruments to achieve the target set by the european union 2030 climate and energy agenda of affordable energy transition during the last years such innovation process has been associated with the smart grid sg term in this context efficiency and flexibility of power systems are expected to increase and energy consumers to be active also on the production side thus becoming prosumers agents that both produce and consume energy this paper provides a theoretical real option framework with the aim to model prosumers decision to invest in photovoltaic power plants assuming that they are integrated in a sg our main focus is to study the optimal plant size and the optimal investment threshold in a context where exchange of energy among prosumers is possible the model was calibrated and tested with data from the northern italy energy market our findings show that the possibility of selling energy between prosumers via the sg increases investment values this opportunity encourages prosumers to invest in a larger plant compared with the case without exchange possibility and that there is a positive relation between optimal size and optimal investment timing the effect of uncertainty is in line with the literature showing increasing value to defer with volatility our comparative statics stress the need for policies to push the pv efficiency

economic analysis of pv systems on buildings in sicilian farms abstract the photovoltaic sector in italy in recent years has experienced a rapid growth also in the primary sector thanks to substantial incentives guaranteed by energy policies simultaneous reduction of investment costs and tax benefits in order to better understand the growth of the pv industry in italian primary sector the aim of this paper has been to evaluate the economic convenience of four pv systems on farm buildings located in four different farms of the north western coast of sicily and realized during the second and fourth italian feed in schemes for each feed in scheme it has been considered a pv plant that sells the electricity to the grid and another in which the energy generated is consumed entirely by the farm the results show a clear convenience to the realization of investments both with the current market conditions and at the variation of the feed in tariff or the investment costs

the use of real options approach in energy sector investments abstract energy shortage global warming and climate change led to an increase in the use of alternative sources of energy with renewable energy sources res playing a fundamental role in this new energetic paradigm however the investment costs often constitute a major barrier to their spread use moreover the overall benefits of renewable energy technologies are often not well understood and consequently they are often evaluated to be not as cost effective as traditional technologies from the moment that the energy sector started a deregulation process with a high level of competitiveness and associated increased market uncertainty traditional project evaluation techniques alone became insufficient to properly deal with these additional risk and uncertainty factors the diffusion of the renewable energy technologies is also affected by this feature the way investors evaluate their investments call now for the use of more sophisticated evaluation techniques real options approach can deal with these issues and as so began to be considered and applied for the energy sector decision aid this approach it is now extensively widespread in evaluating investment projects in the energy sector a large set of applications in almost all fields of energy decision making from electricity generation technologies appraisal to policy evaluation is available in the literature however the use of this technique in the field of res is still limited and worth to be analysed this paper addresses this issue a review of the current state of the art in the application of real options approach to investments in non renewable energy sources and res is presented giving perspectives for further research in this field

subjective discount rates in the general population and their predictive power for energy saving behavior why do people sometimes refrain from saving energy even if it would pay off in monetary terms subjective discount rates present one possible explanation for this lack of foresight but little is known about their level and reliability in the general population with regard to behavior persons with lower discount rates are expected to accept additional costs upfront more readily than those with higher discount rates based on a representative nation wide study the swiss environmental survey 2007 and a follow up survey our analyses reveal that on average subjective discount rates are well above market interest rates and moderately stable over a time interval of four years income and education are negatively correlated with discount rates contrary to expectations we did not find convincing support for an impact of discount rates on energy saving behavior

comparing the costs of intermittent and dispatchable electricity generating technologies economic evaluations of alternative electric generating technologies typically rely on comparisons between their expected life cycle production costs per unit of electricity supplied the standard life cycle cost metric utilized is the levelized cost per mwh supplied this paper demonstrates that this metric is inappropriate for comparing intermittent generating technologies like wind and solar with dispatchable generating technologies like nuclear gas combined cycle and coal levelized cost comparisons are a misleading metric for comparing intermittent and dispatchable generating technologies because they fail to take into account differences in the production profiles of intermittent and dispatchable generating technologies and the associated large variations in the market value of the electricity they supply levelized cost comparisons overvalue intermittent generating technologies compared to dispatchable base load generating technologies they also overvalue wind generating technologies compared to solar generating technologies integrating differences in production profiles the associated variations in the market value of the electricity supplied and life cycle costs associated with different generating technologies is necessary to provide meaningful comparisons between them this market based framework also has implications for the appropriate design of procurement auctions created to implement renewable energy procurement mandates the efficient structure of production tax credits for renewable energy and the evaluation of the additional costs of integrating intermittent generation into electric power networks

who invests in renewable electricity production empirical evidence and suggestions for further research transforming energy systems to fulfill the needs of a low carbon economy requires large investments in renewable electricity production res e recent literature underlines the need to take a closer look at the composition of the res e investor group in order to understand the motives and investment processes of different types of investors however existing energy policies generally consider res e investments made on a regional or national level and target investors who evaluate their res e investments according to least cost high profit criteria we present empirical evidence to show that res e investments are made by a heterogeneous group of investors that a variety of investors exist and that their formation varies among the different types of renewable sources this has direct implications for our understanding of the investment process in res e and for the study of motives and driving forces of res e investors we introduce a multi dimensional framework for analyzing differences between categories of investors which not only considers to the standard economic dimension which is predominant in the contemporary energy literature but also considers the entrepreneurship innovation adoption and institutional dimensions the framework emphasizes the influence of four main investor related factors on the investment process which should be studied in future research motives background resources and personal characteristics