learning to believe in sunspots a number of authors have shown that competitive economies may possess sunspot equilibria that is rational expectations equilibria in which purely extrinsic uncertainty affects equilibrium prices and allocations 2 such results demonstrate that it does not require a lack of faith in the rationality of market participants to believe that competitive markets may be subject to purely speculative fluctuations driven solely by expectations 3 the mere existence of sunspot equilibria as solutions to a system of marketclearing conditions however might not be judged sufficient to indicate that competitive markets with rational participants could ever be subject to speculative instability the sunspot equilibria represent states of affairs in which agents act differently in the case of different realizations of the sunspot variable and it is rational for each agent to do so but it might be thought unlikely that the beliefs of all the participants in the market could ever come to be coordinated so as to bring about an equilibrium of that kind it is rational to believe that sunspots convey information about future states of affairs once the economy is in a sunspot equilibrium but why would rational agents ever begin to believe in such a thing so as to create the conditions under which the belief is rational in order to address such a question one must go beyond the mere statement of the conditions for equilibrium and discussion of what states of affairs satisfy them one must specify an explicit dynamic process according to which the beliefs of agents adjust when out of equilibrium any exercise of this kind is necessarily unsatisfactory as there is no univocal meaning for the postulate of rational behavior outside of an equilibrium it may well be the case that

total factor carbon emission performance of the chinese transportation industry a bootstrapped non radial malmquist index analysis this paper proposes a non radial malmquist co2 emission performance index nmcpi for measuring dynamic changes in total factor co2 emission performance over time this index enables the consideration of non radial slacks in the conventional malmquist co2 emission index mcpi the nmcpi is calculated based on a non radial directional distance function derived by several data envelopment analysis dea models furthermore nmcpi could be decomposed into an efficiency change ec index and technological change tc index a bootstrapping approach is conducted to introduce statistical inferences into the nmcpi and its decompositions based on the proposed indices the dynamic co2 emission performance change and its decompositions of the chinese regional transportation industry from 2002 to 2010 are investigated the empirical results demonstrate that the total factor carbon emission performance of the transportation industry as a whole decreased by 32 8 over the period and this reduction was primarily caused by technological decline

productivity growth and biased technological change in hydroelectric dams abstract this paper analyses productivity growth and the nature of technical change in a sample of portuguese hydroelectric generating plants over the period 2001 to 2008 in a first step we employ the luenberger productivity indicator to estimate and decompose productivity change a malmquist productivity index is also used for a comparative purpose the results paint a picture of mixed productivity performance in the portuguese energy sector the first decomposition underlines that in average the productivity variation is explained by the technological change then in a second step we analyse the nature of this technical change by using the recent concept of parallel neutrality briec et al 2006 we observe a global shift in the best practice frontier as well as in the evidence of input bias in technical change

financing the provision of global public goods this paper examines the concept of global public goods gpgs and in that context explores the extent of aid oda presently being diverted to gpg provision and whether such diversion skews aid flows towards some recipients and whether diverting aid to gpg provision crowds out aid for conventional development activities these are examined on the basis of oecd data for the late 1990s the main argument of this paper is that oda should not be used for financing gpg provision by developing countries instead it is suggested that other sources of financing the provision of gpgs should be developed keeping in view the various technologies by which the gpgs can be produced and design principles for supra national institutions various arguments from sandler barrett and kanbur are considered in particular kanbur s suggestion of two tensions involving the principles of economies of scale subsidiarity economies of scope and specialization is explored further some examples of issues where a gpg is produced as a joint product of actions by national governments are considered by looking at data on eight different indicators for 1995 problems in using the joint product approach to gpg provision are also discussed

measuring and decomposing profit inefficiency through the slacks based measure abstract the slacks based measure was introduced by tone 2001 in order to estimate technical efficiency in the input output space by taking into account all sources of technical inefficiency and satisfying at the same time many interesting properties since then the slacks based measure has attracted the interest of numerous researchers and practitioners the slacks based measure has been applied to technical efficiency determination productivity change measurement the analysis of production process performance consisting of networks and so on however so far the slacks based measure has not been directly related to profit inefficiency as a component of the overall economic performance of firms in this note we show how a specific normalized measure of profit inefficiency may be decomposed through the slacks based measure

stability of cycles and expectations the actual dynamics of an economy depends on how agents forecast the future at every date as a function of their information on the past while possibly learning the structure of their environment we show in the case of a one dimensional state variable that under mild conditions on expectations functions a given cycle with perfect foresight that is stable in the actual dynamics is stable in a fictitious backward perfect foresight dynamics we exhibit a restricted class of expectations functions for which the converse is true

exploring the green total factor productivity of china s metallurgical industry under carbon tax a perspective on factor substitution abstract the characteristics of high emissions and high energy consumption in metallurgical industry have brought great challenges to the green and low carbon transition in china as a low carbon economic instrument carbon tax is generally considered to be an effective way to reduce co2 emissions through raising energy cost but whether it will promote the green total factor productivity gtfp of china s metallurgical industry is still unanswered under this background this paper uses provincial panel data over years 2000 2015 to investigate the impact of carbon taxation on gtfp of metallurgical industry from the perspective of inter fuel and inter factor substitution the lock in mechanism is also incorporated in the three stage estimation model to better reflect the asymmetric price response of factors and fuels the results reveal that the slow marketization process of energy price and the rigid demand for energy in china s metallurgical industry hinder the substitution effect of energy the implementation of carbon tax has limited effect on energy saving and co2 reduction in the metallurgical industry of china and levying a carbon tax has a negative effect on gtfp during the research period therefore the government should not achieve co2 reduction targets at the expense of green economic growth gtfp is suggested to be considered in future assessment criteria in the process of transforming to low carbon economy

reviewing proposals for a world environmental organisation since the earth summit in rio 1992 several calls have been made for a world environmental organisation weo and only during the last year in the run up to rio 10 five more have been added in

co2 and energy efficiency of different heating technologies in the dutch glasshouse industry this paper uses data envelopment analysis tocompute input based technical efficiencymeasures and co2 and energy technicalefficiency of specialised vegetable firms inthe netherlands over the period 1991 1995 input based scale efficiency is also calculatedfor each firm these efficiency measures aregenerated for firms with different heatingtechnologies the empirical results indicatethat firms use energy quite efficiently and areless efficient in terms of co2 emissions differences in co2 energy efficiencyacross different technologies are not statistically significant in particular firms using traditional heating technologiesare less efficient in terms of co2 scaleadjustments can provide an importantcontribution to further efficiencyimprovements

foreign direct investment spillovers and technical efficiency in the indonesian pharmaceutical sector firm level evidence the spillovers of foreign direct investment fdi on domestic firms performances have been highly debated for many years this article contributes to this debate by analysing spillovers effects on technical efficiency of indonesian pharmaceutical sector using a unique unbalanced panel of highly disaggregated at five digit international standard industrial classification isic 210 firms over the period 1990 1995 1001 observations the stochastic production frontier spf and the data envelopment analysis dea based on malmquist productivity indices mpi have been used to test the spillovers effects of fdi on technical efficiency the empirical results from the spf show that foreign firms are more efficient than domestic competitors and the presence of the former increases the inefficiency of the latter similarly the results from the mpi demonstrate that fdi has a negative and significant impact on technical efficiency changes in domestic competitors but generate positive spillovers to domestic s

multi period efficiency and malmquist productivity index in two stage production systems abstract conventional two stage data envelopment analysis dea models measure the overall performance of a production system composed of two stages processes in a specified period of time where variations in different periods are ignored this paper takes the operations of individual periods into account to develop a multi period two stage dea model which is able to measure the overall and period efficiencies at the same time with the former expressed as a weighted average of the latter since the efficiency of a two stage system in a period is the product of the two process efficiencies the overall efficiency of a decision making unit dmu in the specified period of time can be decomposed into the process efficiency of each period based on this decomposition the sources of inefficiency in a dmu can be identified the efficiencies measured from the model can also be used to calculate a common weight global malmquist productivity index mpi between two periods in that the overall mpi is the product of the two process mpis the non life insurance industry in taiwan is used to verify the proposed model and to explain why some companies performed unsatisfactorily in the specified period of time

equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos abstract this paper surveys current developments in dynamic general equilibrium theory concerned with conditions under which endogenous fluctuations are possible existing contributions are divided into two classes the larger one consists of models with a unique perfect foresight equilibrium while the second includes models where equilibrium is indeterminate and the set of equilibria involving endogenous fluctuations includes sunspots equilibria while the two classes of models involve oscillations of different natures and with different policy implications we show that both are consistent with optimizing behavior and competitive equilibrium

sectoral change catching up and slowing down oecd post war economic growth revisited abstract regression analysis of gdp growth since 1950 on pooled oecd cross sections indicates uniform technological catch up in all sectors but lower marginal labour productivity in agriculture the decline in opportunities to reallocate labour explains some of the post 1973 productivity slowdown

productivity and efficiency change and shareholder value evidence from the spanish banking sector productivity change and shareholder value have been analysed in the banking sector in the last few years although it should be noted that these two important aspects have been studied separately in this regard the main contribution of our study is to link these two lines of research by verifying whether those banks characterized by higher levels of efficiency and productivity change have a higher shareholder value to measure changes in efficiency and productivity we use the malmquist nonparametric technique which is calculated from data envelopment analysis dea linear programming approach the malmquist total factor productivity index enables separation of the catching up effect i e changes over time in technical efficiency from technological change i e the shift of best practice frontier over time due to technological progress our results for a sample of listed spanish banks in the period 2000 to 2004 confirm that those banks with higher efficiency and productivity changes have a higher

the impact of environmental expenditures on performance in the u s chemical industry abstract this study analyzes chemical industry companies with environmental expenditures to determine which ones have better financial performance in addition this study uses data envelopment analysis to evaluate the efficiency of firms with and without environmental expenditures this study also utilizes the malmquist productivity index mpi to analyze firms productivity change and a bootstrap method to test whether the indexes are statistically significant finally this study divides chemical industry companies into three main categories based on their products the results of this study provide significant evidence of a relationship between environmental expenditures and financial performance the findings suggest that firms with environmental expenditures have better efficiency and productivity hence the study encourages companies in the industry to put more effort into protecting the environment that can be through practicing cleaner production to create higher benefits

the role of environmental factors in growth accounting this paper explores a relatively new methodology the directional distance function method to analyse productivity growth the method allows us to explicitly evaluate the role that undesirable outputs of the economy such as carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have on the frontier production process which we specify as a piecewise linear and convex boundary function we decompose productivity growth into efficiency change catching up and technology change innovation we test the statistical significance of the estimates using recently developed bootstrap methods we also explore implications for growth of total factor productivity in the oecd and asian economies copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

estimating most productive scale size using data envelopment analysis abstract the relation between the most productive scale size mpss for paparticular input and output mixes and returns to scale for multiple inputs multiple outputs situations is explicitly developed this relation is then employed to extend the applications of data envelopment analysis dea introduced by charnes cooper and rhodes ccr to the estimation of most productive scale sizes for convex production possibility sets it is then shown that in addition to productive inefficiencies at the actual scale size the ccr efficiency measure also reflects any inefficiencies due to divergence from the most productive scale size two illustrations of the practical applications of these results to the estimation of most productive scale sizes and returns to scale for hospitals and stem electric generation plants are also provided emphasize the advantage of this method in examining specific segments of the efficient production surface

radial and non radial decompositions of profit change with an application to indian banking abstract grifell tatje and lovell grifell tatje e lovell c a k 1999 profits and productivity management science 45 1177 1193 made significant contributions to the literature on the extended radial dea framework by decomposing profit change into six mutually exclusive components their approach however poses two basic problems first the radial estimates on these components might give conflicting signals about the direction of profit change after the full radial efficiencies are achieved when slacks are present second evaluations of these components using base period prices as weights can be potentially misleading to address these concerns we first introduce non radial dea models and then provide a few strong theoretical arguments in favor of using as weights either current period prices or an average price covering both periods to value the contributions of each of these components the indian banking sector is taken as a case study to illustrate the radial and non radial decompositions of profit change so as to empirically examine the role of competition on profit change and its drivers our broad empirical results are as follows first radial and non radial models yield diametrically opposite results on the contributions of various components second the increasing efficiency change trends in all ownership groups after 2002 indicate that the government reform process instituted on the banking industry has had a favorable effect on the performance of the indian banking sector third despite the fact that nationalized banks are the oldest banks their output and resource allocation behaviors do not reflect their learning experience

radial and non radial decompositions of luenberger productivity indicator with an illustrative application abstract viewing slacks as one possible source of inefficiency and that inputs have differential importance in the production process this paper develops based on the directional russell measure of inefficiency the non radial luenberger indicator this indicator is then shown as the sum of the individual input specific luenberger indicators the luenberger indicator and its various input specific indicators are also then shown as the composite measure of efficiency change and technical change this decomposition enables the researcher to empirically examine the contributions of each factor input towards the productivity change and its components efficiency change and technical change our proposed decomposition scheme is then empirically illustrated to analyze the eco productivity performance behavior of the 22 oecd countries during the period 1995 2004 our results indicate that first the productivity change estimates yielded from the non radial luenberger indicator are different from those yielded from its radial counterpart when slacks are present second most of these countries are found experiencing productivity growth due to technical progress alone and finally as regards the order of input specific contributions towards productivity growth capital contributes the most followed by savings in emissions and labor respectively

should we have a wto for international migration the international movement of labour remains much more restricted than movement of goods or capital and the worldwide economic gains to liberalizing migration are large this paper asks whether those gains could be realized through better international cooperation on migration along the lines of the wto for trade although public opinion is marginally more negative towards the liberalization of migration than of trade the key impediment is the lack of a basis for reciprocity in negotiations over migration and this is because migration is largely driven by absolute advantage rather than by comparative advantage as in the case of trade consequently there is no basis for wto style negotiations over migration and therefore no grounds for reforming the international architecture in the hope of fostering liberalization timothy j hatton

on the inconsistency of the malmquist luenberger index abstract apart from the well known weaknesses of the standard malmquist productivity index related to infeasibility and not accounting for slacks already addressed in the literature we identify a new and significant drawback of the malmquist luenberger index decomposition that questions its validity as an empirical tool for environmental productivity measurement associated with the production of bad outputs in particular we show that the usual interpretation of the technical change component in terms of production frontier shifts can be inconsistent with its numerical value thereby resulting in an erroneous interpretation of this component that passes on to the index itself we illustrate this issue with a simple numerical example finally we propose a solution for this inconsistency issue based on incorporating a new postulate for the technology related to the production of bad outputs

an exploration of the eductive justifications of the rational expectations hypothesis this paper examines justifications of the rational expectations hypothesis that rely on the analysis of the agents mental forecasting educing activity which involves forecasting the forecasts of others etc the corresponding concept of eductive learning stability based on the game theoretical concept of rationalizability is primarily used within the classical muth model conditions for coordination of beliefs are interpreted and discussed they are robust to the introduction of noise more generally eductive stability fits economic intuition on coordination stability increases when the industry product differentiation increases and when decisions are sequential and observable copyright 1992 by american economic association

regulatory reforms and productivity an empirical analysis of the japanese electricity industry the japanese electricity industry has experienced regulatory reforms since the mid 1990s this article measures productivity in japan s steam power generation sector and examines the effect of reforms on the productivity of this industry over the period 1978 2003 we estimate the luenberger productivity indicator which is a generalization of the commonly used malmquist productivity index using a data envelopment analysis approach factors associated with productivity change are investigated through dynamic generalized method of moments gmm estimation of panel data our empirical analysis shows that the regulatory reforms have contributed to productivity growth in the steam power generation sector in japan

on endogenous competitive business cycles the belief that the long run equilibrium of a competitive monetary economy that does not experience any exogeneous shocks whether originating from the external environment or from policy should be modelled as a state that is stationary or perhaps growing at a constant rate seems to be deeply rooted in the mind of some economists

decomposition of the fisher ideal index of productivity a non parametric dual analysis of us airlines data in this paper we offer a non parametric method of decomposing the fisher ideal index of productivity into individual factors measuring i technical efficiency change ii allocative efficiency change iii shift in the cost function iv scale economies due to output change and v an adjustment factor reflecting change in the output attributes cross section data from the us airline industry for the years i 983 and i 984 are utilised in an empirical application illustrating this method the rate of multifactor productivity growth mfpg over time in the single output multiple input case can be measured by the difference in the rates of growth in the quantity of output and the divisia index of input quantity when no technical inefficiency exists this rate of mfpg can be decomposed into two additive components i the rate of technical change measuring the rate of change in the volume of output holding the input bundle unchanged and ii a returns to scale effect showing change in productivity with changes in the input quantities without technical change when technical efficiency varies over time a part of the measured rate of mfpg would be due to efficiency

assessing dynamic inefficiency of the spanish construction sector pre and post financial crisis this paper undertakes the full decomposition of dynamic cost inefficiency into technical scale and allocative inefficiency based on the dynamic directional distance function the empirical application estimates dynamic inefficiency in the spanish construction industry before and during the current financial crisis over the period 2001 2009 static inefficiency measures are biased in a context of a significant economic crisis with large investments and disinvestments as they do not account for costs in the adjustment of quasi fixed factors allocative inefficiency is smaller while technical inefficiency is larger when using the dynamic compared to the static framework results further indicate that overall dynamic cost inefficiency is very high with technical inefficiency being the largest component followed by allocative and scale inefficiency moreover overall dynamic cost inefficiency is significantly larger before the beginning of the financial crisis than during the financial crisis larger firms are less technically and scale inefficient than smaller firms on average but have more problems in choosing the mix of inputs that minimizes their long term costs firms that went bankrupt on average have a higher overall dynamic cost inefficiency and scale inefficiency than continuing firms

heterogeneous beliefs and the non linear cobweb model abstract this paper generalizes the evolutionary cobweb model with heterogeneous beliefs of brock and hommes 1997 econometrica 65 1059 1095 to the case of non linear demand and supply agents choose between a simple freely available prediction strategy such as naive expectations and a sophisticated costly prediction strategy such as rational expectations and update their beliefs according to an evolutionary fitness measure such as past realized net profits it is shown that for generic non linear monotonic demand and supply curves the evolutionary dynamics exhibits rational routes to randomness that is bifurcation routes to strange attractors occur when the traders sensitivity to differences in evolutionary fitness increases

founded in adversity operations based survival strategies of ventures founded during a recession abstract we examine the survival of 404 new ventures founded during the 2008 recession we find that industry explains a significant but small percentage of variance in survival 2 81 percent and therefore focus on which operations related actions could enhance ventures odds of survival we find marginally significant support for our hypotheses that a venture founded during a recession is more likely to survive if it increases its production efficiency increases both its production efficiency and variable costs or increases both its production efficiency and fixed costs in property plant and equipment our findings demonstrate that operational decisions are key determinants of survival for ventures founded during a recession

modelling technical efficiency in cross sectionally dependent stochastic frontier panels summary this paper proposes a unified framework for accommodating both time and cross sectional dependence in modelling technical efficiency in stochastic frontier models by combining the exogenously driven factor based approach and an endogenous threshold efficiency regime selection mechanism this approach is able to deal with both weak and strong cross sectional dependence in a flexible manner using a dataset of 26 oecd countries over 1970 2010 we provide satisfactory estimation results for the production technology parameters and the associated efficiency ranking of individual countries we find a positive spillover effect on efficiency supporting the hypothesis that knowledge spillover is more likely to be induced by technological proximity furthermore our approach enables us to identify efficiency clubs endogenously

technical efficiency and productivity analysis in indonesian provincial economies this article estimates inefficiency and total factor productivity tfp across indonesian provinces from 1993 to 2000 indonesia is a large emerging market economy but provinces within the country due to the island structure of the country are more distinct from one another compared to other countries we use a stochastic frontier methodology to estimate inefficiency and tfp we find that tfp fell by an average rate of 7 5 across provinces due to the decrease in technical efficiency in fact the majority of output growth within indonesia is explained by the accumulation of inputs in this sense economic growth within indonesia does not appear to be sustainable without reversing these trends

the effect of incentive reforms upon productivity evidence from the vietnamese rice industry in this study we use region level panel data on rice production in vietnam to investigate total factor productivity tfp growth in the period since reunification in 1975 two significant reforms were introduced during this period one in 1981 allowing farmers to keep part of their produce and another in 1987 providing improved land tenure we measure tfp growth using two modified forms of the standard malmquist data envelopment analysis dea method which we have named the three year window tyw and the full cumulative fc methods we have developed these methods to deal with degrees of freedom limitations our empirical results indicate strong average tfp growth of between 3 3 and 3 5 per cent per annum with the fastest growth observed in the period following the first reform our results support the assertion that incentive related issues have played a large role in the decline and subsequent resurgence of vietnamese agriculture

malmquist productivity indexes and fisher ideal indexes comment fare and grosskopf i992 henceforth abbreviated as fg showed that under some conditions the productivity index defined as the geometric mean of two input based malmquist productivity indexes is equal to the quotient of the fisher input quantity index and the fisher output quantity index both fisher indices can be computed from observed prices and quantities these conditions appear to be so strong that they will almost certainly never be fulfilled in practice this is shown by a careful inspection of fg s proof however under slightly milder but more plausible conditions it can be shown that the quotient of the fisher input index and the fisher output index is a reasonable approximation of the productivity index consider a firm at two time periods t o i with different technologies which are modelled by the input correspondences lt y x x can produce y x c rn yce rm it is assumed that the sets lt y are closed and convex and that inputs are strongly disposable the vectors x yt wt pt t o i denote observed inputs observed outputs observed input prices and observed output prices respectively the productivity index is defined as

adaptive expectations coordination in an economy with heterogeneous agents abstract in this paper we study the problem of expectations coordination on the stationary state in a one dimensional economy with heterogeneous agents we consider a constant gain adaptive learning rule we allow for heterogeneity of the fundamentals and of the constant gain parameters we show that these two sources of heterogeneity may create difficulties to the process of coordination

measurement of input specific productivity growth with an application to the construction industry in spain and portugal abstract decision making in companies requires an assessment of the efficiency and productivity of individual inputs to provide insights into the scope for improvement of inputs use this paper estimates an input specific luenberger productivity growth indicator that can be decomposed to identify the contributions of input specific technological change technical efficiency change and scale efficiency change these components for a specific input sum up to the aggregated indicators which are then compared with the traditional luenberger indicator the application focuses on panel data of spanish and portuguese construction firms over the period 2002 2011 accounting for three inputs materials labor and capital the results show that aggregated productivity change and its components computed from the input specific productivity indicator are different from those obtained using a traditional approach the results also indicate that productivity change is negative for labor and capital for construction firms in both spain and portugal while productivity change of materials is positive for portugal and negative for spain productivity decline is worse for capital in the spanish construction firms and for labor in portugal

eductive expectations coordination on deterministic cycles in an economy with identical fundamentals abstract we study expectations coordination on a deterministic cycle of period 2 by an eductive approach in which agents are concerned with forecasting the forecasts of others this approach is grounded in some common knowledge assumptions we use this approach to discuss the problem of equilibrium selection between the stationary state and a cycle of period 2 we prove that locally eductively stable cycles of period 2 can exist if agents have stationary beliefs

energy productivity growth in the dutch greenhouse industry profitability of dutch greenhouse firms is largely dependent on energy costs and policy makers focus on reducing the use of energy by these firms this article uses russell measures of te to develop indicators of energy productivity growth results show that energy productivity grew by 2 8 annually in the period 1976 95 with technical progress being the key factor driving the process of productivity growth from this we conclude that policies aiming at enhancing the adoption of technological innovations are more effective if due attention is paid to measures for improving te

sources of productivity growth using the fare primont decomposition an empirical application to the irish beef sector several competing methodologies for tfp estimation have been developed in the past decades a popular approach in the literature is index number computation the most widely implemented tfp indices

productivity growth technical progress and efficiency change in industrialized countries this paper analyzes productivity growth in 17 oecd countries over the period 1979 1988 a nonparametric programming method activity analysis is used to compute malmquist productivity indexes these are decomposed into two component measures namely technical change and efficiency change we find that u s productivity growth is slightly higher than average all of which is due to technical change japan s productivity growth is the highest in the sample with almost half due to efficiency change jel c43 d24 in this paper we apply recently developed

total factor carbon emission performance of fossil fuel power plants in china a metafrontier non radial malmquist index analysis article i nfo this paper proposes the metafrontier non radial malmquist co2 emission performance index mnmcpi for measuring dynamic changes in total factor co2 emission performance over time the mnmcpi method allows for the incorporation of group heterogeneity and non radial slack into the previously introduced malmquist co2 emission performance index mcpi we derive the mnmcpi by solving several non radial data envelop ment analysis dea models we decompose the mnmcpi into an efficiency change ec index a best practice gap change bpc index and a technology gap change tgc index and based on the proposed indices we examine the dynamic changes in co2 emission performance and its decomposition of fossil fuel power plants in china for the 2005 2010 period the empirical results show a 0 38 increase in total factor co2 emission performance as a whole and a u shaped mnmcpi curve for the sample period because companies owned by the central government lack innovation and technological leadership the results suggest a missing link in the role of the central government in promoting co2 emission performance

a non parametric analysis of productivity the case of u s and japanese manufacturing a nonparametric analysis of technology technical change and productivity is presented in the context of cost minimizing behavior a number of nonparametric tests concerning the existence and nature of technical change are applied to u s and japanese manufacturing data nonparametric measures of technical change are presented copyright 1990 by american economic association

efficiency and technical progress sources of convergence in the spanish regions the paper analyses the contribution of efficiency as a mechanism of labour productivity convergence taking as the unit of analysis the spanish regions in the period 1964 1993 using the stochastic frontier approach a translogarithmic production function is estimated for the different sectors of the spanish regional economy demonstrating on this basis the existence of substantial differences in efficiency between sectors as well as between regions with regard to convergence the results obtained indicate that at aggregate level the convergence observed in labour productivity is explained by the faster growth of the capital labour ratio of the initially poorer regions and the contribution of technical change and the efficiency hence by the convergence of tfp however the information by sectors shows different results thus on the one hand the importance of the convergence in production per employee is seen in all sectors except agriculture and on the other it is observed that technical change is a

eductive expectations coordination on deterministic cycles in an economy with heterogeneous agents abstract in this paper we study expectations coordination on a deterministic 2 cycle by an eductive approach in which agents are concerned with forecasting the forecasts of others this approach is grounded in some common knowledge assumptions we consider an overlapping generations economy in which agents have heterogeneous utility functions we show that locally eductively stable 2 cycles can exist when agents have stationary beliefs we also show that heterogeneity may hinder eductive coordination

on the consistency of backward looking expectations the case of the cobweb in dynamic models of economic fluctuations backward looking expectations with systematic forecasting errors are inconsistent with rational behaviour in non linear dynamic models exhibiting seemingly unpredictable chaotic fluctuations however simple habitual rule of thumb backward looking expectation rules may yield non zero but nevertheless non systematic forecasting errors in a chaotic model expectational forecasting errors may have zero autocorrelations at all lags even for rational agents patterns in these forecasting errors may be very difficult to detect especially in the presence of small noise backward looking expectations are then not necessarily inconsistent with rational behaviour we investigate whether simple expectation schemes such as naive or adaptive expectations can be consistent with rational behaviour in the simplest of all non linear dynamic economic models the non linear cobweb model

performance and efficiency in colombia s power distribution system effects of the 1994 reform we assess evolution in performance efficiency and productivity of colombia s power distribution utilities before and after the 1994 regulatory reform that introduced electricity market activities for the power sector in 12 distribution companies from 1985 to 2001 performance is evaluated contrasting changes in mean and median by wilcoxon rank sum and pearson tests on financial and other performance indicators technical efficiency is measured by means of data envelopment analysis dea the nature of the dataset allows the estimation of malmquist productivity index and its evolution in time results show a recovery after the reform in the main performance indicators of profitability partial input productivity and output plant efficiency and productivity increased after the reform mainly in the largest utilities used as benchmarks in the dea efficiency scores measures meanwhile the less efficient power distribution companies did not improved after the reform and were not able to undertake plant restructuring to catch up in plant efficiency with respect to the pareto efficient input allocations econometric results on dea efficiency scores suggest a positive effect of policy reform

the evolution and main determinants of productivity in brazilian electricity distribution 1998 2005 an empirical analysis abstract this paper estimates changes in the productivity of the brazilian electricity distribution sector using data envelopment analysis dea on a panel of 18 firms from 1998 to 2005 the study decomposes the productivity change of these distribution firms in terms of technical efficiency scale efficiency and technical progress this exercise aims to help the understanding of the main determinants of the evolution of productivity focusing its relationship with the restructuring process implemented in the 1990s tfp index records a yearly positive growth rate of 1 3 in the whole period under analysis for all firms technical change was the main component behind this evolution with an average growth of 2 1 per year while technical efficiency presented a yearly negative performance of 0 8 the results prove that in general terms the incentives generated in the reform process do not seem to have led the firms to behave in a more efficient manner

bridging the gap between partial and total factor productivity measures using directional distance functions technical dependencies as well as data constraints limit our ability to allocate inputs across sectors and hence our ability to measure sectoral productivity we adapt a directional measure of efficiency to the measurement of sector specific productivity that does not require allocating all inputs across sectors applied to the agricultural sector of a group of countries the results show important differences in livestock and crops productivity growth commonly used partial factor productivity measures for livestock and crops tend to overestimate productivity growth in most developing countries while underestimating it in european countries