modeling the effects of adjustment programs on income distribution abstract this paper introduces the general structure of the micro macro economywide simulation model maquette used in several case studies on the impact of adjustment policies on the distribution of income the description of the maquette emphasizes how the short and medium run effects of adjustment packages are incorporated in a general equilibrium model and explains the common structure and variants in the specification and estimation of relationships in product factor financial and foreign exchange markets simulations are used to illustrate the role of differences in assumptions about market adjustment mechanisms e g fix price or flex price closed or open financial system on the effects of adjustment policies on the distribution of income adjustment to an external shock through devaluation or through fiscal retrenchment is then contrasted for an economy with different degrees of financial and foreign trade openness the simulations show that assumptions about macroeconomic closures and behavioral parameters matter a great deal in determining the productive and distributive effects of a shock and a country s adjustment to that shock

the demand for residential electricity in south africa abstract this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in south africa as a function of real gross domestic product per capita and the price of electricity during the period 1978 2005 we make use of the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework suggested by pesaran et al 2001 bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships journal of applied econometrics 16 3 289 326 following the literature we use a linear double logarithmic form using income and price as independent variables in the empirical analysis in the long run we find that income is the main determinant of electricity demand while electricity price is insignificant

gender diversity and firm performance evidence from india and singapore this study investigates if gender diversity on boards is an effective driver of financial performance for this purpose this study choses two countries one of which has the soft law approach sin

crime rates male youth unemployment and real income in australia evidence from granger causality tests this article applies granger causality tests to examine the relationship between seven different categories of property crime and violent crime against the person male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings in australia from 1964 to 2001 within a cointegration and vector error correction framework it is found that fraud homicide and motor vehicle theft are cointegrated with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings however there is no evidence of a long run relationship between either break and enter robbery serious assault or stealing with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings

import demand with rational expectations estimates for bauxite cocoa coffee and petroleum abstrac t we offer a method for establishing the distributed lag structure in import demand models a priori we consider a firm which imports raw materials in a world of uncertainty traditional considerations of adjustment and inventory holding costs lead to a forward looking import decision rule linear rational expectations modelling allows us to transform the forward looking rule into a finite distributed lag specification while the resulting model is similar in form to earlier empirical models it is not subject to the lucas critique the model is fitted to u s data over the period 1954 1980

implication for cities of the liberalizing national economies in twenty first century for cities the liberalization of national economies and the creation of a global economy have profound and far reaching implications global capitalist restructuring has been a key force in reshaping cities during the late1980s 1990s and 2000s it has demanded the production and use of new information technologies and in doing so has forged new relationships among new technologies and new spatial forms and processes in cities technological innovation and territorial restructuring have also deeply modified cities emerging socio economic systems at the centre of change are the three major global cities new york tokyo and london sassen 1993 other cities that have been affected by the liberalization and creation of a global economy are found mainly in newly industrializing asian countries such as seoul singapore and hong kong bombay mexico city and cities in south america are among countries in the developing world that have experienced some change in their economies in response to changing wo

price and income elasticities of disaggregated import demand results from uecms and an application this paper presents an empirical analysis of the demand for maize milk powder butter and rice imports in cyprus using annual time series data covering the period 1975 1994 none of these products is produced in cyprus and all the necessary quantities are imported to meet domestic demand the primary objective of the paper is to derive long run price and income elasticities of import demand that can be used to analyse the impact of various policies such as the adoption of the common agricultural policy cap when and if the republic of cyprus joins the european union eu in so doing the paper takes on board some recent developments in time series econometrics the cointegration test used the bounds test is a recent test and is based on the estimation of an unrestricted error correction model uecm parsimonious models were derived using hendry s general to specific approach the estimated elasticities were subsequently used to quantify some of the implications for cyprus had the cap been ope

a cointegration analysis of seafood import demand in caribbean countries cointegration analysis and error correction model are used to estimate seafood import demand for selected caribbean countries the results show that seafood import is price elastic exchange rate has a negative effect while gross domestic product gdp and tourism have positive effects on seafood imports import and domestic production do not have a short run causal relationship the increase in caribbean seafood imports is primarily due to decreasing import price and increasing domestic demand the decline of domestic fisheries production has other causes than import competition however imports and domestic production have a negative long run equilibrium relationship tariff and production expansion policies both help producers but tariff may reduce total economic surplus while supply expansion can increase total economic surplus

import demand for brazilian ethanol a cross country analysis abstract this study presents an empirical analysis of the import demand for brazilian ethanol by its six major foreign buyers the primary objectives of this study were to identify the economic factors affecting the demand for ethanol imports and to derive long run price and income elasticities of import demand these elasticities could be used to analyze the impact of government policies such as mandatory gasoline ethanol blends and import tariffs import demand models were estimated with ordinary least squares ols using quarterly time series data for the 1997 2007 time period the results suggest that the factors influencing the import demand for ethanol vary across countries markets adopting mandatory blends of renewable fuels tend to have less price elastic import demand schedules ethanol imports were found to be price elastic and statistically significant in the caribbean region 1 66 mexico 2 08 japan 1 44 and nigeria 1 38 while import demand was price inelastic and not statistically different from zero in the us 0 76 and europe 0 21 the regression results could not determine the impacts of import tariffs for the united states mexico and nigeria on the quantity of imports because tariffs did not vary during the time period studied results show that mandatory gasoline ethanol blends have been an important determinant of ethanol imports

tourism trade and growth the case of cyprus although the relationship between international trade and economic growth has found a wide application area in the literature over the years this can not be said about tourism and growth or trade and tourism this study employs the bounds test for cointegration and granger causality tests to investigate a long run equilibrium relationship between tourism trade and real income growth and the direction of causality among themselves for cyprus results reveal that tourism trade and real income growth are cointegrated thus a long run equilibrium relationship can be inferred between these three variables on the other hand granger causality test results suggest that real income growth stimulates growth in international trade both exports and imports and international tourist arrivals to the island furthermore growth in international trade both exports and imports also stimulates an increase in international tourist arrivals to cyprus and finally real import growth stimulate growth in real export

the demand for cigarettes in japan a two stage budgeting procedure was used to estimate demand elasticities for cigarettes in japan cigarettes were disaggregated into japanese u s and rest of world testing for habit effects was performed at both stages results indicated that habit effects occur for total expenditures on cigarettes but not between types

testing dynamic specification for import demand models the case of cotton error correction models impose few prior restrictions on dynamic model specification and allow the data to determine model structure despite this obvious advantage few applications have adopted the error correction model to explain trade flows an error correction model of cotton import demand is estimated for france japan and hongkong a variety of tests are applied to determine the dynamic structure of the model it is found that the most general models are those that best fit the data for cotton import demand long run elasticities from these general models are significantly different than elasticities derived from a comparable static model

the demand for gasoline in south africa an empirical analysis using co integration techniques abstract using the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag ardl bound testing approach to co integration suggested by pesaran et al pesaran m h shin y smith r j bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships journal of applied econometrics 2001 16 3 289 326 we empirically analyzed the long run relationship among the variables in the aggregate gasoline demand function over the period 1978 2005 our study confirms the existence of a co integrating relationship the estimated price and income elasticities of 0 47 and 0 36 imply that gasoline demand in south africa is price and income inelastic

monetary policy and dividend growth in germany long run structural modelling versus bounds testing approach this study examines the long run relationship between monetary policy and dividend growth in germany for this purpose cointegration is tested for between both variables in the period 1974 to 2003 however problems related to spurious regression arise from the mixed order of integration of the series used from mutual causation between the variables and from the lack of a long run relationship among the variables of the model these problems are addressed by applying the bounds testing approach to cointegration in addition to a more standard long run structural modelling approach in principle both procedures are capable of dealing with the controversial issue of the exogeneity of monetary policy vis a vis dividend growth however the structural modelling approach still leaves a certain degree of uncertainty about the integration properties of the interest rate and the dividend growth hence one feels legitimized to refer to the bounds testing procedure and to conclude that in the longer term short t

the effects of trade liberalization on imports in selected developing countries abstract this paper analyses the impact of the reduction of tariff and nontariff barriers on the imports of 22 selected developing countries utilizing dynamic panel data techniques domestic income and relative prices are found to be significant determinants of import growth in addition the results indicate that import duties reduce import growth but the effect varies according to the region and the type of trade policy regime existing in the country the results also show that the elimination of trade policy distortions has a strong positive impact on import growth finally it is found that income and price elasticities are higher as a result of trade policy reform

foreign direct investment pollution and economic growth evidence from malaysia the bounds test developed by pesaran et al 2001 is applied to examine the existence of a long run relationship between foreign direct investment fdi inflows pollution and output of malaysia granger causality tests are also utilized to test for the presence of the short run and long run causal relationship between these variables both fdi inflows and pollution have short run causal relationship on output output only has long run causal relationship on fdi inflows

linear rational expectations equilibrium laws of motion for selected u s raw material imports in this paper the authors develop and estimate time series models of the rational expectations equilibrium laws of m otion for several u s commodity imports bauxite cocoa coffee and petroleum the theoretical model is based upon the optimizing behavi or of firms that import in the presence of supply shocks delivery la gs and adjustment and inventory holding costs one of the important features of the empirical model is that the authors are able to estim ate elasticities that distinguish between responses to changes in the environment that importers expect to be relatively temporary versus relatively permanent copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the savings growth nexus for the malaysian economy a view through rolling sub samples the purpose of this study is to re investigate the savings growth nexus for the malaysian economy using bounds testing approach to cointegration and toda and yamamoto 1995 and dolado and lutkepohl 1996 tydl granger causality test this study covered the sample period from 1971 q1 to 2008 q4 the cointegration results suggest that the variables are moving together in the long run and the tydl granger causality results indicate that the relationship between savings and economic growth is bilateral in addition the rolling sub samples tydl granger causality test exhibited a relatively stable causal relationship running from savings to economic growth in malaysia particularly before the onset of asian financial crisis in 1997 1998

an econometric analysis of u s vital wheat gluten imports abstract in light of the wheat wet milling industry s development in the e c and of the prominent role u s imports play in the international market for wheat gluten this paper discusses the international market for wheat gluten an important component of processed grain products an econometric analysis of the u s import demand for wheat gluten is undertaken the price of flour income and the u s value of wheat protein are found to be important determinants of wheat gluten imports

attendance and pricing at sporting events empirical results from granger causality tests for the melbourne cup this study applies granger causality tests to examine the relationship between attendance admission prices and real income at the melbourne cup which is australia s premier horseracing event and one of the world s leading handicap races the motivation for the paper is that while market demand suggests that causation should run from admission price to attendance it is equally plausible that sporting authorities could alter admission prices in response to a change in demand reflected in attendance the main findings are that in the short run there is unidirectional granger causality running from income to attendance attendance to admission price and income to admission price while in the long run both admission price and income granger cause attendance

whither armington trade models the armington trade model distinguishes commodities by country of origin and import demand is determined in a separable two step procedure this framework has been applied to numerous international agricultural markets with the objective of modeling import demand in addition computable general equilibrium cge models commonly employ the armington formulation in the trade linkage equations the purpose of this paper is to test the armington assumptions of homotheticity and separability with data from the international cotton and wheat markets both parametric and nonparametric tests were performed and the empirical results reject the armington assumptions this has important implications for international trade modeling and cge modeling

distributional effects of adjustment policies simulations for archetype economies in africa and latin america for developing countries the 1980s was a decade of external shocks whose adverse effects were compounded by domestic macroeconomic imbalances and structural inefficiencies the performance of developing countries during this decade however was not uniform the effects of terms of trade and interest rate shocks are simulated for two model economies one representing an average latin american economy and the other representing an average african economy in addition to the effects of the shocks the effects of different adjustment policies are examined as expected identical shocks and adjustment packages yield different outcomes for growth poverty and income distribution in the two economies the differences in results can be traced to specific features of the models and to the extent that the archetypes created are representative of real economies have implications for adjustment policy prescriptions

growth and oil price a study of causal relationships in small pacific island countries this paper investigates the nexus between economic growth and oil price in small pacific island countries pics except papua new guinea none of the 14 pics has fossil any fuel resources consequently the other 13 pics are totally dependent on oil imports for their economic activities since pics have limited foreign exchange earning capacities as they have a very narrow range of exports and are highly dependent on foreign aid high oil prices in recent months have seriously tested their economic resilience this paper applies the ardl bounds testing methodology to four selected pics samoa solomon islands tonga and vanuatu which have consistent and reliable time series of data with a view to assess the impact of oil price on economic growth the findings are that oil price gross domestic product and international reserve are cointegrated in all the four pics further both in the long and short runs we observe that there is a uni directional relationship as causality linkage runs only from oil price and international reserves to economic growth the paper makes some policy recommendations

disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in south africa abstract this paper tries to assess the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in south africa by undertaking a cointegration analysis using annual data from 1980 to 2005 we also investigate the causal relationships between the various disaggregate forms of energy consumption and industrial production our results imply that industrial production and employment are long run forcing variables for electricity consumption applying the toda h y yamamoto t 1995 statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes journal of econometrics 66 225 250 technique to granger causality we find bi directional causality between oil consumption and industrial production for the other forms of energy consumption there is evidence in support of the energy neutrality hypothesis there is also evidence of causality between employment and electricity consumption as well as coal consumption causing employment