intrinsic bubbles the case of stock prices several puzzling aspects of the behavior of united states stock prices may be explained by the presence of a specific type of rational bubble that depends exclusively on aggregate dividends the authors call bubbles of this type intrinsic bubbles because they derive all of their variability from exogenous economic fundamentals and none from extraneous factors intrinsic bubbles provide a more plausible empirical account of deviations from present value pricing than do the traditional examples of rational bubbles their explanatory potential comes partly from their ability to generate persistent deviations that appear to be relatively stable over long periods copyright 1991 by american economic association

have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time abstract previous studies have reported mixed results regarding the success of technical trading rules in currency markets abnormal returns were observed in many studies using data up to the mid 1980s while more recent studies generally report less success for technical trading rules this paper tests whether moving average trading rule profits have declined over the period from 1971 to 2000 if so previous profits may represent a temporary inefficiency that has since been eliminated in the currency markets the hypothesis is tested using 18 exchange rate series over a longer time period than in previous studies rules are optimized for successive 5 year in sample periods from 1971 to 1995 and tested over subsequent 5 year out of sample periods results show that risk adjusted trading rule profits have declined over time from an average of over 3 in the late 1970s and early 1980s to about zero in the 1990s thus market inefficiencies reported in previous studies may have been only temporary inefficiencies

exchange rate fundamentals forecasting and speculation bayesian models in black markets summary although speculative activity is central to black markets for currency the out of sample performance of structural models in those settings is unknown we substantially update the literature on empirical determinants of black market rates and evaluate the out of sample performance of linear models and non parametric bayesian treed gaussian process btgp models against the random walk benchmark fundamentals based models outperform the benchmark in out of sample prediction accuracy and trading rule profitability measures given future values of fundamentals in simulated real time trading exercises however the btgp achieves superior realized profitability accuracy and market timing while linear models do no better than a random walk copyright 2013 john wiley sons ltd

the out of sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors a step beyond abstract a large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate however there is evidence that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting future spot exchange rates and that exchange rate dynamics display nonlinearities this paper proposes a term structure forecasting model of exchange rates based on a regime switching vector equilibrium correction model which is novel in this context our model significantly outperforms both a random walk and to a lesser extent a linear term structure vector equilibrium correction model for four major dollar rates across a range of horizons

forecasting foreign exchange rates with an intrinsically nonlinear dynamic speed of adjustment model forecasting foreign exchange rates is an important but difficult process therefore it is important to use a superior forecasting model the paper takes up this criterion and proposes to describe and forecast foreign exchange rates by developing an intrinsically nonlinear model with variable and dynamic speeds of adjustment it is found that the speed of adjusting the random or expected to the equilibrium rate is very slow implying that fiscal policy statistically insignificat and monetary policy statistically significant may be ineffective to induce changes in the adjustment speed we also find that the nonlinear dynamic model improves forecasting performance implying that nonlinearities in the sense of functional forms are exploitable for improved point forecasting of foreign exchange rates

exchange rate target zones a survey of the literature this work selectively reviews the literature on exchange rate target zones and their theoretical and empirical methodologies and examines whether they can be used to clarify to what extent this type of exchange rate regime could contribute to greater exchange rate stability we discuss the main contributions of the first and second generations of exchange rate target zone models in an attempt to reconcile the poor empirical performance of the krugman model with the reality of exchange rate target zone regimes this line of research integrates target zones with alternative underlying economic models such as imperfect credibility intra marginal interventions and sticky price models it was thus possible to understand the correlations observed between the exchange rate its fundamentals determinants and the interest rate differential and to explain the fact that the statistical distribution of the exchange rate is hump shaped rather than u shaped this implies that the initial emphasis of target zone models on nonlinearities honeymoon effect smooth pasting and marginal interventions has vanished exchange rate target zones are better described as similar to managed floating regimes with intra marginal interventions with some marginal interventions when the exchange rate reaches the edges of the floating band

inflation real economic growth and unemployment expectations an empirical analysis based on the ecb survey of professional forecasters expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers in this article we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using

target zone models with stochastic realignments an econometric evaluation abstract this paper provides empirical support for the second generation of target zone models with stochastic devaluation risk i propose a simple non linear framework with a time varying probability of exchange rate realignment this model nests alternatives i with no devaluation risk ii with constant devaluation risk and iii the random walk i reject these three in favor of a stochastic realignment model where devaluation risk varies with economic fundamentals the model predicts 13 of 17 realignments for the franc and lira including an out of sample episode in august 1993

real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials a present value interpretation although the real exchange rate real interest rate reri relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models empirical support for the relationship is generally found to be rather weak in this paper we re investigate the reri relationship using bilateral us real exchange rate data spanning the period 1978 2007 instead of testing one particular model we build on campbell and shiller 1987 cointegration tests of present value models journal of political economy 95 1062 1088 to propose a metric of the economic significance of the relationship our empirical results provide robust evidence that the reri link is economically significant and that the real interest rate differential is a reasonable approximation of the expected rate of depreciation over longer horizons

nonlinear nonparametric nonessential exchange rate estimation a wide variety of empirical exchange rate mo dels have been estimated over the years but despite the considerable energies that have been devoted to this work the economics profession has remarkably little to show for itself there is little evidence that conclusively links the bilateral exchange rates of typical oecd countries to fundamental macroeconomic determinants of exchange rates such as money output relative prices or interest differentials coefficient estimates are notoriously unstable and frequently mis signed compared with theoretical predictions exchange rate equations do not fit particularly well and forecast no better than the simplest naive alternatives recently a new class of exchange rate models was introduced by paul krugman 1988 these models provide a potential reason for the poor performance of traditional exchange rate models because they are nonlinear if the exchange rate actually depends in a nonlinear way on exogenous macroeconomic fundamentals linear exchange rate models may work poorly even though the exchange rate is closely linked to fundamentals in this paper we provide a brief sketch of some of this work as well as some preliminary evidence on the actual performance of these nonlinear models in our empirical analysis we use a nonparametric estimator that can handle a wide variety of nonlinear phenomena we examine fixed exchange rate regimes where nonlinearities should be quite easy to detect however we do not find strong empirical support for the hypothesis that the incorporation of nonlinear effects significantly improves models of exchange rate determination in section i we briefly review the theoretical literature on nonlinear target zone exchange rate models linking this work to the tests for intrinsic bubbles we draw heavily on recent papers by kenneth froot and maurice obstfeld 1989a b our methodology and data are discussed in section ii section iii contains new empirical tests for nonlinearities in exchange rate models

exchange rate predictability in a changing world an expanding literature articulates the view that taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates in a changing world however taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities for example in the aftermath of the global financial crisis this paper forecasts exchange rates using taylor rules with time varying parameters tvp estimated by bayesian methods focusing on the data from the crisis we improve upon the random walk for at least half and for as many as seven out of 10 of the currencies considered results are stronger when we allow the tvp of the taylor rules to differ between countries

exchange rates and fundamentals under adaptive learning abstract this paper studies a monetary model that is standard in all respects except that market participants have incomplete knowledge about the economic structure and employ adaptive learning rules to learn about the economic environment market participants also must contend with unannounced regime shifts simulation results suggest that the models under adaptive learning especially constant gain learning combined with a structural change dominate the alternative specifications of expectations in their ability to account for why fundamentals predict exchange rate returns over long horizons but not over short horizons and for generating excessively volatile returns and persistent deviations of the exchange rate from the monetary fundamentals

size and sign asymmetries in house price adjustments long run mean reversion in real house prices is determined by the relative strength of fundamental factors against the short run influences this article suggests that the adjustment towards the lo

can the markov switching model forecast exchange rates abstract a markov swirching model is fit for 18 exchange rates at quarterly frequencies the model fits well in sample for many exchange rates by the mean squared error criterion the markov model does not generate superior forecasts to a random walk or the forward rate there appears to ne some evidence that the forecasts of the markov model are superior at predicting the direction of change of the exchange rate

forecasting and combining competing models of exchange rate determination this article investigates the out of sample forecast performance of a set of competing models of exchange rate determination we compare standard linear models with models that characterize the relationship between exchange rate and the underlying fundamentals by nonlinear dynamics linear models tend to outperform at short forecast horizons especially when deviations from long term equilibrium are small in contrast nonlinear models with more elaborate mean reverting components dominate at longer horizons especially when deviations from long term equilibrium are large the results also suggest that combining different forecasting procedures generally produces more accurate forecasts than can be attained from a single model

the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade reduced form estimates using the garch in mean model abstract in this paper we use a multivariate garch in mean model of the reduced form of multilateral exports to examine the relationship between nominal exchange rate volatility and export flows and prices the model imposes rationality on perceived exchange rate volatility unlike conventional two step strategies tests are performed for five industrialized countries over the post bretton woods era we find that the garch conditional variance has a statistically significant impact on the reduced form equations for all countries for most of the countries the magnitude of the effect is stronger for export prices than quantities in addition the estimated magnitude of the impact of volatility on exports is not robust to using the conventional estimation strategy jel f41 f31

is public r d a complement or substitute for private r d a review of the econometric evidence is public r d spending complementary and thus additional to private r d spending or does it substitute for and tend to crowd out private r d conflicting answers are given to this question we survey the body of available econometric evidence accumulated over the past 35 years a framework for analysis of the problem is developed to help organize and summarize the findings of econometric studies based on time series and cross section data from various levels of aggregation laboratory firm industry country the findings overall are ambivalent and the existing literature as a whole is subject to the criticism that the nature of the experiment s that the investigators envisage is not adequately specified we conclude by offering suggestions for improving future empirical research on this issue

modelling the ff mm rate by threshold cointegration analysis this paper investigates a sticky price model of exchange rate determination extension of krugman s target zone model with price inertia applied to the french franc a novel theoretical argument is considered threshold cointegration such that the long run relationship between the parity and its fundamentals is dormant within a certain range of disequilibria but is restored when the system crosses the boundaries over the period 1987 1993 nonlinearities in the ff dm rate consistent with the credibility of this target zone were detected by pointing out a band reversion mechanism a shock persistence analysis which highlights a nonlinear reversion of the exchange rate deviation is also implemented

currency fluctuations in the post bretton woods era the international monetary landscape that has emerged since the felling of bretton woods is characterized by a hybrid exchange rate system that lies somewhere between the textbook polar cases of a gold standard and a pure float this system has relatively flexible exchange rates between major countries active central bank intervention in the market for the major currencies and predominantly fixed exchange rates relative to the dollar or to some basket of currencies for less developed countries and newly industrializing nations the majority of research on currency markets since the early 1970s has focused on the characteristics of flexible exchange rates under this hybrid regime my thesis is that this research has been unsuccessful the proportion of monthly or quarterly exchange rate changes that current models can explain is essentially zero even after the fact forecasts that use actual values instead of forecasted values of the explanatory variables cannot explain major currency movements over the post bretton woods era this result is quite surprising since exchange rate changes would be entirely unpredictable only in very special cases of the theoretical models discussed as the discussion below will argue it is not a general implication of market efficiency that exchange rates follow a random walk process 1

an interpretation of recent research on exchange rate target zones how do exchange rate bands work compared to completely fixed rates between realignments or more precisely what are the dynamics of exchange rates interest rates and central bank interventions within exchange rate bands does the difference between bands and completely fixed exchange rates matter and if so which of the two arrangements is best or more precisely what are the tradeoffs that determine the optimal bandwidth this article will present an interpretation of some selected recent theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate target zones with emphasis on main ideas and results and without technical detail

the perils of democracy abstract in this work we examine a common social dilemma in experimental economics the public goods game to determine how voting impacts pro social behavior as noted in markussen et al 2014 a democratic dividend exists couching the public goods game in a phenomenon that is playing out in much of the world drastic income inequality we examine the decision of groups to share local public goods with groups that have effectively no endowment to contribute toward public nor private consumption our results show the perils of democracy in that subjects in the position to vote use their advantageous situation to reward the ingroups at the expense of the less endowed outgroup members

do euro exchange rates follow a martingale some out of sample evidence abstract traditional autocorrelation and variance ratio tests are based on serial uncorrelatedness rather than martingale difference as such they do not capture potential nonlinearity in mean which could lead to misleading inferences in favor of the martingale hypothesis this paper employs various parametric and nonparametric nonlinear models as well as several model comparison criteria to examine the potential martingale behavior of euro exchange rates in the context of out of sample forecasts the overall evidence indicates that while martingale behavior cannot be rejected for euro exchange rates with major currencies such as the japanese yen british pound and us dollar there is nonlinear predictability in terms of economic criteria with respect to several smaller currencies

a critique of variance bounds tests for monetary exchange rate models note the monetary approach to exchange rate determination attributes the observed volatility of floating rates to revisions of expectations about current and future disturbances that affect the supply and demand conditions in the money market see for example frenkel and mussa 1980 a number of recent studies have proposed and implemented variance bounds tests of monetary exchange rate models along the lines of bond price and stock price volatility tests pioneered by leroy and porter 1981 shiller 1979 1981 and singleton 1980 huang 1981 presents evidence apparently demonstrating that some exchange rates are more volatile than a simple monetary model based on the assumptions of purchasing power parity and uncovered interest parity can rationalize meese and singleton 1983 derive but do not test the variance bounds implied by a number of monetary models vander kraats and booth 1983 henceforth referred to as v b implement volatility tests for three monetary models they conclude that only a variant of the sticky price model developed by dornbusch 1976 can potentially explain under certain rather implausible assumptions about parameter values the observed volatility of the exchange rates included in their sample in the literature this evidence of excess volatility of floating rates is considered damaging to the monetary approach and or to the rational expectations hypothesis for example in his recent survey of the literature richard levich remarks that on the basis of huang s results it follows that either the market is inefficient or that the rational expectations monetary model is incorrect or both levich 1985 p 994 the primary purpose of the present paper is to point out that the excess volatility evidence presented by huang and by ai b arises from a calculation error namely the value they assign to the interest semielasticity of money demand may be appropriate for a study using annual time series but is inappropriate for their monthly data once this error is corrected their exchange rate series no longer violate the variance bounds they test

testing for bubbles in exchange markets a case of sparkling rates this paper investigates the possibility that the observed deviations of major bilateral exchange rates from values implied by market fundamentals are a consequence of rational asset market bubbles when a new econometric methodology for detecting asset market bubbles is used the joint hypothesis of no bubbles and stable autoregressive processes for relative money supplies and real incomes is rejected for the dollar deutsche mark and dollar pound ratesusing monthly data over the period 1973 82 additional tests for coefficient stability and for lack of cointegration between exchange rates and market fundamentals suggest that the bubble findings must be interpreted with care

forecasting the price of gold this article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques 17 methods at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price we report the results from the nine most competitive techniques special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk rw as we noticed that certain multivariate models which included prices of silver platinum palladium and rhodium besides gold were also unable to outperform the rw in this case interestingly the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the rw at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead and on average the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24 month forecasting horizons moreover we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the bayesian autoregression and bayesian vector autoregressive models with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases

on the organisation of agricultural research in the united kingdom 1945 1994 a quantitative description and appraisal of recent reforms abstract in this paper we review recent radical changes in the structure and funding of agricultural and food research in the united kingdom we assemble data on the contributions of both public and private institutions during the past fifty years to put these changes in greater perspective they are then explained by the interaction of proactive governmental policies for the agricultural and food industries driven by external considerations with more reactive policies motivated by problems particular to these industries essentially the assumption that government intervention is required only when market incentives fail has dictated that public funding should be reallocated from technology transfer activities and productivity enhancing and near market research to basic research which affects a broader range of industries than just the food and agriculture industries and to public interest research on pressing problems of food safety and environmental protection we conclude that the much heralded notion of progress through partnership of the public and private sectors is not succeeding since the latter has not taken up the research abandoned by the former

multivariate nearest neighbour forecasts of ems exchange rates exchange rate modelling has been a persistent puzzle for international economists forecasts from popular models for the exchange rate generally fail to improve upon the random walk out of sample while a multivariate nonparametric approach provides useful information about exchange rates the model produces forecasts superior to the random walk for only one of the three ems currencies examined using a statistic developed in mizrach 1991 i find that the forecast improvement a 4 5 percent reduction in mean squared error for the lira in daily returns is not statistically significant a cross validation exercise suggests that the improvement is also not robust

an empirical reassessment of target zone nonlinearities abstract in this paper we investigate the presence of target zone nonlinearities in the pound sterling german mark exchange rate for the period of the uk european exchange rate mechanism erm membership using data with frequency of every 2 days tests against general nonlinear specifications as well as specifications consistent with a stochastic devaluation risk model of exchange rate target zones are carried out using recursive techniques in addition the significance of nonlinear effects is analysed within a recursive bayesian framework we find evidence of target zone nonlinearities in the whole sample but the recursive analysis yields support for the presence of such nonlinearities only in specific subsamples our results imply that the reduction in the uk inflation rate was most likely a consequence of contractionary policies rather than of the expectational effects associated with the target zone

contract enforcement and investment a systematic review of the evidence summary this systematic review focuses on the empirical research that evaluates the causal link between contract enforcement and investment the evidence available in a variety of academic media reviewed with established procedures provides some but weak support for the existence of such link during 1990 2010 we only found 19 independent studies that empirically test the relationship and only one that directly examines the effects of an actual institutional reform few of the studies test alternative explanations perform robustness checks or critically assess the findings in sum the broadly accepted hypothesis of direct causation is still awaiting strong empirical backing

intellectual property rights in mexico do they play a role summary there is little empirical evidence concerning the effects of intellectual property rights ipr in technologically advanced developing countries complete enumeration of the mexican maize breeding industry showed that contrary to the hypothesis that ipr would support innovation ipr play no role in the industry ipr theory should be revised to include characteristics of developing countries critical for the good functioning of ipr quality of the institutional environment and importance of transaction given the relatively good score of mexico on these critical aspects ipr are likely to play an even smaller role in other developing countries

using non linear methods to search for risk premia in currency futures abstract this paper uses currency futures prices to test the joint null hypotheses of rational expectations and absence of a time varying risk premium in the foreign exchange market we find no linear predictability in the logarithm of futures price changes either using its own past or past interest differentials also we establish that there is no non linear predictability in log price changes conditioning on its own past or past interest rate differentials thus if a time varying risk premium exists in currency futures market it is not related to its own past or past interest rate differentials

spillover effects of stricter immigration policies abstract we provide evidence for the existence of spillover effects of national immigration policies by estimating the effect of stricter family reunification rules in denmark on migration behavior we reach three main conclusions using danish register data we first show that stricter rules for reunification led to a clear and significant increase in emigration of danish citizens with immigrant background most of the emigrants left denmark for sweden a neighboring country in which reunification was possible next using swedish register data we find that affected individuals emigrating to sweden actually came for family formation purposes finally we demonstrate that not all individuals that came to sweden to reunite with a partner stayed in the country of those leaving return migration to denmark was most common our results indicate that potential spillover effects from national migration policies should be taken into account when forming migration policy

a stochastic dominance analysis of yen carry trades abstract yen carry trades have made headline news for over a decade we examine the profitability of such trades for the period 2001 2009 yen carry trades generated high mean returns and sharpe ratios prior to the recent financial crisis they continued to outperform major stock markets for the full sample period given the non normality of carry trade returns we apply non parametric tests based on stochastic dominance sd to evaluate whether the high returns of yen carry trades are compatible with risk as reflected in returns on us and global stock market indices we apply a general test for sd developed recently by linton maasoumi and whang 2005 to six currencies as well as portfolios of these currencies for a large class of risk averse investors profits from yen carry trades cannot be attributed to risks

agricultural research expenditures in the united states a public goods perspective this paper presents econometric evidence on two different public good formulations of agricultural research pure public and joint product models a nested test for simultaneous equations is proposed and applied for distinguishing between the two models the procedure is used for testing for neutrality using data from 1951 85 the authors illustrate the technique with two stage least squares estimates for forty eight u s states an overwhelming number of sample states abide by the joint product model price and full income elasticities are presented copyright 1994 by mit press

accounting for exchange rate variability in present value models when the discount factor is near 1 a well known stylized fact about nominal exchange rates among low inflation advanced countries particularly u s exchange rates is that their logs are approximately random walks michael i mussa 1979 is most frequently cited for observing this regularity in a famous pair of papers richard a meese and kenneth rogoff 1983a b found that the structural models of the 1970 s could not beat a random walk in explaining exchange rate movements recently some authors menzie chinn and meese 1995 nelson mark 1995 mark and donggyu sul 2001 have argued that the models can outforecast the random walk at long horizons but a comprehensive recent study by yin wong cheung et al 2003 documents that no model consistently outperforms a random walk why one obvious explanation is that the macroeconomic variables that determine the exchange rate themselves follow random walks if the log of the nominal exchange rate is a linear function of forcing variables that are random walks then it will inherit the random walk property the problem with this explanation is that the economic fundamentals proposed in the most popular models of exchange rates do not in fact follow simple random walks one resolution to this problem is that there may be some other fundamentals ones that have been proposed in some models but are not easily measurable or ones that have not yet been proposed at all that are important in determining exchange rates if these unobserved fundamentals follow random walks and dominate the variation in exchange rate changes then exchange rates will nearly be random walks even if the standard observed fundamentals are not in engel and west 2003a hereinafter ew we propose an alternative explanation we consider linear models of the exchange rate that are in the asset market approach to exchange rates these models emphasize the role of expectations of future economic fundamentals in determining the current exchange rate the exchange rate expressed as the home currency price of foreign currency in this paper can be written as a discounted sum of the current and expected future fundamentals

imperfect credibility and risk premia in the european monetary system the paper deals with the estiamation of models for the expected rate of depreciation within the currency bands of the french franc and the italian lira against the deutshmark both unconditional and conditional upon no realignment as well as the estimastion of models for risk premia using these estimates estimates are constructed for the expected rate of depreciation the expected rate of realignment and the expected rate of devaluation of these exchange rates during their ems period by appropriate adjustment of interest rate differentials it is found that these adjustments are of non trivial magnitude

perpetual learning and apparent long memory abstract this paper studies the low frequency dynamics in forward looking models where expectations are formed using perpetual learning such as constant gain least squares we show that if the coefficient on expectations is sufficiently close to unity perpetual learning induces strong persistence that is empirically indistinguishable from long memory we apply this result to present value models of stock prices and exchange rates and find that perpetual learning can explain the long memory observed in the data

exchange rate predictability the main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question does anything forecast exchange rates and if so which variables it is well known that exchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models and that a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model the meese and rogoff puzzle however the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle this article provides a critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustrates the new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up to date thorough empirical analysis overall our analysis of the literature and the data suggests that the answer to the question are exchange rates predictable is it depends on the choice of predictor forecast horizon sample period model and forecast evaluation method predictability is most apparent when one or more of the following hold the predictors are taylor rule or net foreign assets the model is linear and a small number of parameters are estimated the toughest benchmark is the random walk without drift

paying for the hydrological services of mexico s forests analysis negotiations and results abstract mexico faces both high deforestation and severe water scarcity the payment for hydrological environmental services psah program was designed to complement other policy responses to the crisis at the interface of these problems through the psah the mexican federal government pays participating forest owners for the benefits of watershed protection and aquifer recharge in areas where commercial forestry is not currently competitive funding comes from fees charged to water users from which nearly us 18 million are earmarked for payments of environmental services applicants are selected according to several criteria that include indicators of the value of water scarcity in the region this paper describes the process of policy design of the psah the main actors involved in the program its operating rules and provides a preliminary evaluation one of the main findings is that many of the program s payments have been in areas with low deforestation risk selection criteria need to be modified to better target the areas where benefits to water users are highest and behavior modification has the least cost otherwise the program main gains will be distributive but without bringing a pareto improvement in overall welfare

a univariate analysis of ems exchange rates using a target zone model summary the models in the literature on exchange rate target zones imply a non linear time series model for the exchange rate we show how the parameters of such models can be estimated and develop maximum likelihood and method of simulated moments estimators for the target zone model of krugman 1991 the maximum likelihood estimator is based on a computationally attractive approximation to the exact predictive density of the continuous time model monte carlo experiments are used to assess the properties of this estimator in the empirical part we estimate the model with data on recent ems exchange rates we find that the krugman 1991 target zone model is not able to explain the full observed kurtosis and conditional heteroscedasticity of the exchange rate returns

aggregate private r d investments in agriculture the role of incentives public policies and institutions most observers have come to agree that research and development rd for example are they complements or substitutes if they are substitutes then additional private agricultural r d expenditures may not result in larger total agricultural research expenditures the objective of this article is to present econometric evidence quantifying the effects of economic incentives public policies and institutions on national aggregate private agricultural r d investments or expenditures previous studies have generally emphasized only one or at most two of these issues but the primary hypothesis of this article is that all three are important and that interactions exist among them although the european union eu is undergoing major economic integration member countries continue to exhibit substantial differences in institutions public policies size and relative importance of agriculture hence these countries provide a good set of observations for testing our main hypothesis a model is formulated and fitted

taylor rules and the deutschmark dollar real exchange rate we explore the link between an interest rate rule for monetary policy and the behavior of the real exchange rate the interest rate rule in conjunction with some standard assumptions implies that the deviation of the real exchange rate from its steady state depends on the present value of a weighted sum of inflation and output gap differentials the weights are functions of the parameters of the interest rate rule an initial look at german data yields some support for the model

stochastic trends and jumps in ems exchange rates abstract in this paper we study the statistical properties of ems exchange rate returns our findings show that jumps time varying parameters and conditional leptokurtosis are pertinent features in the empirical distributions of ems exchange rate returns allowance for fat tails however tends to reduce the measured frequency of jumps in the distributions to more realistic proportions most successful in capturing the relevant features of ems exchange rate returns is a combined jump garch model with conditionally t distributed innovations jel f31

flexible exchange rates prices and the role of news lessons from the 1970s recent experience with flexible exchange rate systems has led to renewed interest in the operation of foreign exchange markets as reflected in many recent studies of the principal determinants of exchange rates the 1970s witnessed the dramatic alteration of the international monetary system from a regime of pegged exchange rates which prevailed for about a quarter of a century since the bretton woods conference into a regime of flexible though managed rates as a consequence of the emergence of the new legal and economic system traders national governments and international organisations were confronted with new economic problems choices and instruments during the 1970s ex change rates fluctuated widely and inflation rates accelerated the international monetary system had to accommodate extraordinarily large oil related shocks which affected trade flows in goods and assets huge oil payments had to be recycled uncertainties concerning future developments in international politics reached new heights and the prospects for the world economy got gloomier these developments placed unprecedented pressures on the markets for foreign exchange as well as on other asset markets they were associated with a large slide in the value of the us dollar and resulted in speeding up the creation of new institutions like the european monetary system which provided the formal framework for the management of exchange rates among members

exchange rates and fundamental variables a semi parametric analysis of binary choice this study is motivated by the dearth of models that provide good out of sample fit for exchange rates that is current models of exchange rate behaviour are poor predictors of subsequent currency movements an attempt is made to determine if the relationship between exchange rates and fundamental variables can help explain the more extreme exchange rate movements distributional switches models are developed that relate fundamental economic variables to the resulting estimates based on the mixture of normal probability distributions parametric estimation procedures logit and probit are compared with a semi parametric technique maximum score estimation mscore which is relatively untested in the field of finance the fundamental variables of these models include information on trade balances money supply changes interest rate changes real economic growth relative inflation rates and changes in stock market indexes classification results favour mscore implications of results and improvements

stochastic devaluation risk and the empirical fit of target zone models in the model of this paper an exchange rate fluctuates between given boundaries for random lengths of time and jumps discretely when devaluation occur we provide explicit solutions for the stochastic processes followed by the exchange rate and by the expected rate of depreciation when the likelihood and the size of devaluations vary stochastically over time the model produces realistic patterns of covariation between exchange rates and interest rate differentials and provides interesting interpretations of available empirical evidence we also specify how to infer devaluation risk from target zone data

testing target zone models using efficient method of moments the objectives of this article are threefold 1 to test target zone models using more efficient and direct econometric methodology than previous research 2 to identify an implicit band if it exists from observed data and to test target zone models based on the estimated implicit band rather than the stated official band and 3 to examine whether the exchange rate can be modeled as a managed float system with a central parity that lacks a band we find strong evidence that a model with intramarginal intervention and a narrower implicit unofficial band can describe the dynamics of the french franc deutsche mark exchange rate from january 1 1987 july 30 1993

linear non linear and essential foreign exchange rate prediction with simple technical trading rules abstract this paper investigates the predictability of spot foreign exchange rate returns from past buy sell signals of the simple technical trading rules by using the nearest neighbors and the feedforward network regressions the optimal choices for nearest neighbors hidden units in a feedforward network and the training set are determined by the cross validation method which minimizes the mean square error although this method is computationally expensive the results indicate that it has the advantage of avoiding overfitting in noisy environments and indicate that simple technical rules provide significant forecast improvements for the current returns over the random walk model

the organization of agricultural research in western developed countries abstract this paper reviews agricultural research structural and organizational changes in western developed countries examines new financing prospects for agricultural research and provides some tentative conclusions about which organizations are best positioned to provide services for the twenty first century given that these countries face many similar economic political scientific and agroclimatic factors and fiscal issues we can expect a set of similar new developments that have potentially important and widespread long run implications after three common developments are outlined principles of impure public good financing are applied leading to the following agricultural science policy recommendations i new political jurisdictions should be formed to finance research e g new alliances across countries and subregions within large countries ii intellectual property rights should be strengthened to increase the total amount and share of total public and private agricultural research that is privately financed and conducted i e the private sector should find it profitable to undertake a large share of applied research but not be expected to finance public sector agricultural research and iii the public sector should redirect its research efforts increasingly to areas that are socially worthwhile but not privately undertaken e g in the basic and pretechnology areas on environmental resources food safety and human nutrition and policy finally large countries that have developed a system of shared public and private financing and performance and decentralized public support of agricultural research seem best positioned for meeting the needs of the twenty first century

intervention policy and mean reversion in exchange rate target zones the swedish the intervention policy of the swedish central bank is studied using daily intervention data for the late 1 980s in contrast to the first generation of target zone models we find that the interventions occur all over the exchange rate band and almost every day based on this evidence we estimate an exchange rate target zone model with intra marginal interventions the results go a long way towards explaining the well established hump shaped exchange rate distribution and lack of non linearities

implications of nonlinear dynamics for financial risk management this paper demonstrates that when log price changes are not iid their conditional density may be more accurate than their unconditional density for describing short term behavior using the bds test of independence and identical distribution daily log price changes in four currency futures contracts are found to be not iid while there appear to be no predictable conditional mean changes conditional variances are predictable and can be described by an autoregressive volatility model that seems to capture all the departures from independence and identical distribution based on this model daily log price changes are decomposed into a predictable part which is described parametrically by the autoregressive volatility model and an unpredictable part which can be modeled by an empirical density either parametrically or nonparametrically this two step seminonparametric method yields a conditional density for daily log price changes which has a number of uses in financial risk management

banking on currency forecasts how predictable is change in money abstract the paper examines the predictive performance of four structural exchange rate models using both parametric and nonparametric techniques error correction versions of the models are fit so that plausible long run elasticities can be imposed on the fundamental variables of each model a variety of model evaluation statistics are reported our findings confirm that fundamental exchange rate models forecast no better than a random walk model for short term prediction horizons for longer horizons error correction terms can explain exchange rate movements significantly better than a no change forecast for a subset of the models and currencies we consider

quantitative modelling of the eur chf exchange rate during the target zone regime of september 2011 to january 2015 krugman 1991 s target zone model for exchange rate dynamics has become the reference of a large part of this literature despite its simplicity and elegance empirical evidence has been lacking not least because it is difficult to capture the predicted non linear relationship between the observable exchange rate and the non observable fundamental value this is why we propose a different approach by inverting locally the relation between exchange rate and fundamental value we derive analytical expressions for the conditional volatility and the probability density as a function of the exchange rate this allows us to examine krugman s prediction directly from historical data and furthermore enables us to test the smooth pasting condition which is intimately related to the no arbitrage condition concretely we study the performance of the euro swiss franc exchange rate in the extraordinary period from september 6 2011 to january 15 2015 when the swiss national bank enforced a minimum exchange rate of 1 20 swiss francs per euro we show that the data are well explained by the theory and conclude that krugman s target zone model holds after all but apparently only under extreme and sustained pressure that pushes continuously the exchange rate very close to the boundary of the target zone

how are exchange rates managed evidence of an anchor based heuristic central banks often intervene in the foreign exchange market to obtain desirable exchange rates how this is done has remained totally opaque although central banks are likely to adopt a satisficing rather than optimizing strategy as they need to intervene frequently in a timely manner under incomplete information in this paper we propose a simple exchange rate management rule that spreads the volatilities originated from the anchor currencies among the exchange rates with the domestic currency we test out this rule on 10 currencies and find the empirical evidence consistent with the proposed anchor based heuristic

taylor rules and the canadian us equilibrium exchange rate abstract this paper identifies the canadian us equilibrium exchange rate based on a simple structural model of the real exchange rate in which monetary policy follows a taylor rule interest rate reaction function the exchange rate is explained by relative output and inflation as observable variables and by unobserved equilibrium rates as well as unobserved transitory components in output and the exchange rate using canadian data over 1974 2009 we jointly estimate the unobserved components and the structural parameters using the kalman filter and bayesian technique we find that canada s equilibrium exchange rate evolves smoothly and follows a trend depreciation the transitory component is found to be very persistent but much more volatile than the equilibrium rate resulting in few but prolonged periods of currency misalignments

refugees asylum seekers and policy in oecd countries refugees and asylum seekers are only a small proportion of the 60 million forcibly displaced persons but those seeking asylum in the developed world have received much of the attention as western governments have struggled to develop a policy response an analysis of asylum applications by origin and destination indicates that these flows are largely driven by political terror and human rights abuses poor economic conditions in origin countries and tough asylum policies in destination countries matter too in the light of the findings i suggest that greater coordination among oecd countries could improve the lot of those fleeing from persecution but even this would make only modest inroads into the sum of human misery that displaced people exemplify

ems exchange rate bands a monte carlo investigation of three target zone models abstract a monte carlo analysis is used to compare three target zone models in reproducing some stylized facts of weekly deutsche mark exchange rates in the european monetary system for the period january 1987 august 1992 the models are the standard target zone model a model of infracum intramarginal interventions and a model of unfulfilled realignment expectations compared with the corresponding dollar rates returns on deutsche mark rates exhibit much more non normality which can be generated endogenously by the latter two models and more conditional heteroskedasticity which can be produced simultaneously by the infra cum intramarginal interventions model

the role of national debts in the determination of the yen dollar exchange rate an intertemporal optimization model is developed to examine the determinants of the long run nominal yen dollar exchange rate in the presence of national debts the model is tested empirically using data from japan and the usa the proposed theoretical specification is well supported by the data and shows that relative national debts as well as monetary and financial factors may play a significant role in the determination of the long run nominal exchange rate between the yen and the dollar

chaotic behaviour in exchange rate series first results for the peseta u s dollar case abstract we test for the presence of deterministic chaos on daily data for the spot and forward spanish peseta u s dollar exchange rates the finding of a chaotic behaviour in the series allows us to make short run predictions which in general outperform those from the random walk model

a realistic model for official interest rate movements and their consequences this article extends the vector autoregression var methodology to examine the consequences of monetary policy decisions by considering two types of nonlinearities in the determination of official interest rates 1 the asymmetry related to the different nature of the discrete and infrequent positive and negative interest rate movements determined by central bankers and 2 the convexity in the transmission of policy shocks induced by the nonnegativity constraint in interest rates for the uk we find some evidence of both types of asymmetries in the us responses to unexpected interest rate shocks are far more symmetric results highlight the importance of considering all types of asymmetries when studying monetary transmission

the monetary approach to exchange rate in an efficient foreign exchange market tests based on volatility the variance bounds on exchange rate movements implied by the monetary approach to exchange rate in an efficient foreign exchange market is shown to be violated by sample data the paper also presents evidence showing that the forecast errors implied by the monetary model can be forecasted using historical data the results are interpreted to suggest either the incompatibility of the monetary approach with sample data or an inefficient foreign exchange market or both models of exchange rate determination based on the monetary approach to the balance of payments imply when coupled with an interest rate parity relation and the assumption of an efficient foreign exchange market that exchange rates are related to a long average of money stocks differentials 1 2 the long average is analogous to the difference across countries of the long average of expected future money stocks which was supposed to characterize the price level of a single country see e g sargent and wallace 20 since long averages are known to have certain smoothing properties it appears that the observed volatility of exchange rates may be inconsistent with these models thus alternative tests of the models may be produced which rely on those properties the aim of this paper is to determine if the observed volatility is consistent with those properties the paper is the first to use tests based on the volatility of the exchange rate in an efficient market model of the monetary approach the first set of tests is based on the property of implied variance bounds for exchange rate movements and the second set consists of the more familiar efficient market tests of forecastability the empirical results violate these two sets of tests of the model thus casting doubt on the model even though the claim that exchange rates are too volatile has been commonly made few direct attempts have been made in the past to determine the validity of the claim some studies have presented estimates of variances of spot and forward rates but lacking an objective criterion to determine what constitutes

exchange rate discounting abstract economists often describe nominal exchange rates as forward looking so that they reflect discounted expected future fundamentals this study applies a method for identifying the discount rate involved without knowing or measuring fundamentals identification arises from assumptions on the stochastic process followed by fundamentals combined with non linearity arising from expected future regime changes two applications yield evidence against the present value model in the form of discount rates which are negative and statistically significant

meese rogoff redux micro based exchange rate forecasting meese rogoff redux micro based exchange rate forecasting by martin d d evans and richard k lyons this paper compares the true ex ante fore casting performance of a micro based model against both a standard macro model and a random walk in contrast to existing literature which is focused on longer horizon forecasting we examine forecasting over horizons from one day to one month the one month horizon being where micro and macro analysis begin to over lap over our three year forecasting sample we find that the micro based model consistently outperforms both the random walk and the macro model micro based forecasts account for almost 16 percent of the sample variance in monthly spot rate changes these results pro vide a level of empirical validation as yet unat tained by other models the forecasting experiment proposed by richard meese and kenneth rogoff 1983 re mains a benchmark against which exchange rate models are judged their result that structural macro models cannot outperform a naive random walk has proved robust over the decades yet the meese rogoff paper was never about forecasting in the true sense i e using tirrie f information to forecast exchange rates at t 1 b y using concurrent realized values of the forcing variables their regressions were more about concurrent explanation than about ex ante forecasting their only forecast ing element is in their reliance on ex ante data to estimate equation parameters which appro priately penalized models whose estimated pa rameters were unstable tion for the random walk nature of exchange rates is that there exists some unobserved fun damental that itself follows a random walk un observed being important because fundamentals proposed in most macro models do not follow random walks they offer a different explana tion one rooted in the asset approach to ex change rates and the present value relation that follows from it specifically they show that i f fundamentals are 1 1 but not necessarily ran dom walks then as the discount factor in the present value relation approaches 1 the ex change rate will follow a process arbitrarily close to a random walk intuitively given that an 1 1 process can be split into random walk and stationary components a discount factor near 1 means that most all of the weight is placed on fundamentals far into the future ex pectations of which are dominated by the random walk component charles engel and kenneth west 2004 2005 provide a valuable perspective on the forecastability of exchange rates one explana this paper takes the analysis of engel and west as an important reorientation of thinking and brings it to the natural next step specifi cally if there is little room for forecasting based on stationary components of fundamentals then one needs to focus on where all the action is namely exchange rate dynamics that come from expectational surprises though the sur prise part is by definition orthogonal to public information our micro based model shows that there should exist types of nonpublic infor mation that are useful for forecasting this part and where to look for these types of informa tion we then locate data on these types of nonpublic information and test whether they have true ex ante forecasting power we should evans department of economics georgetown uni versity washington dc 20057 and nber lyons haas school of business university of california berkeley c a 94720 1900 and nber we are grateful to ken west for his comments and to the national science foundation for financial support we refrain from using the word news because it has too strong an association with macro information that is public which even in the most careful of event studies explains less than 5 percent of exchange rate variation in total see torben andersen et al 2003

target zones and forward rates in a model with repeated realignments abstract this paper studies the term structure of forward premia in a target zone with imperfect credibility the relationship between spot and forward exchange rates which reflects the possibility of realignments of the band is studied for various intervention policies with different degrees of credibility forward market data is used to estimate the implied credibility of the french german target zone during the ems parameter estimates accord with the experience of the ff dm exchange rate during the 1980s although spot exchange rates display little sensitivity to anticipated intervention forward data can be used to detect the effects of intervention on exchange rate dynamics