global inequality how large is the effect of top incomes abstract despite the growing interest in global inequality assessing inequality trends is a major challenge because individual data on income or consumption is not often available nevertheless the periodic release of certain summary statistics of the income distribution has become increasingly common hence grouped data in form of income shares have been conventionally used to construct inequality trends based on lower bound approximations of inequality measures this approach introduces two potential sources of measurement error first these estimates are constructed under the assumption of equality of incomes within income shares second the highest income earners are not included in the household surveys from which grouped data is obtained in this paper we propose to deploy a flexible parametric model which addresses these two issues in order to obtain a reliable representation of the income distribution and accurate estimates of inequality measures this methodology is used to estimate the recent evolution of global interpersonal inequality from 1990 to 2015 and to examine the effect of survey under coverage of top incomes on the level and direction of global inequality overall we find that item non response at the top of the distribution substantially biases global inequality estimates but more importantly it might also affect the direction of the trends

income inequality in france 1901 1998 this paper uses data from income tax returns 1915 98 wage tax returns 1919 98 and inheritance tax returns 1902 94 in order to compute homogeneous yearly estimates of income wage and wealth inequality for twentieth century france the main conclusion is that the decline in income inequality that took place during the first half of the century was mostly accidental in france and possibly in a number of other countries as well wage inequality has been extremely stable in the long run and the secular decline in income inequality is for the most part a capital income phenomenon holders of large fortunes were badly hurt by major shocks during the 1914 45 period and they were never able to fully recover from these shocks probably because of the dynamic effects of progressive taxation on capital accumulation and pretax income inequality

top income shares in the long run an overview this paper offers an overview of what we have learned from a collective research project on income distribution in the long run using historical income tax statistics and a common methodology we have constructed annual top income shares series often broken down by income source for over 20 countries covering most of the 20th century one important con clusion is that the decline in income inequality that took place during the first half of the 20th century was mostly accidental and does not seem to have much to do with a kuznets type process top capital incomes were hit by major shocks during the 1914 1945 period and were never able to fully recover from these shocks probably because of the dynamic impact of pro gressive income and estate taxation our database also allows us to readdress the cross country analysis of the interplay between inequality and growth with better prospects than with standard databases jel d31

skewed wealth distributions theory and empirics invariably across a cross section of countries and time periods wealth distributions are skewed to the right displaying thick upper tails that is large and slowly declining top wealth shares in this survey we categorize the theoretical studies on the distribution of wealth in terms of the underlying economic mechanism generating skewness and thick tails further we show how these mechanisms can be micro founded by the consumption saving decisions of rational agents in speci c economic and demographic environments finally we map the large empirical work on the wealth distribution to its theoretical underpinning

impact of income on nutrient intakes implications for undernourishment and obesity the relationship between income and nutrient intake is explored nonparametric panel and quantile regressions are used engle curves for calories fat and protein are approximately linear in logs with carbohydrate intakes exhibiting diminishing elasticities as incomes increase elasticities range from 0 10 to 0 25 with fat having the highest elasticities countries in higher quantiles have lower elasticities than those in lower quantiles results predict significant cumulative increases in calorie consumption which are increasingly composed of fats though policies aimed at poverty alleviation and economic growth may assuage hunger and malnutrition they may also exacerbate problems associated with obesity

food preferences and nutrition in rural bangladesh t he dietary choice of households near subsistence levels of nutrient intake is one of obvious policy importance in many countries such as bangladesh national goals are set in terms of nutritional intake and there is heavy intervention in the markets for foods however little is known about the manner in which food preferences vary with food expenditure and nutrient intake the design of efficient programs to aid nutritionally deficient households in attaining minimal levels of nutrient intake requires information on all ownand cross price elasticities for both target and non target groups the net effect of a food price subsidy on the consumption of food nutrients cannot be predicted without knowledge of the complete elasticity matrix results presented below demonstrate that substitution effects can be so strong that the subsidization of certain foods quite often reduces nutrient consumption in this study demand equations for nine foods which allow for extremely flexible consumer price response are estimated from the individual budgets of 5 750 rural bangladeshi households estimation at the household level is preferred because it more readily permits the incorporation of household composition variables into the demand analysis such as household size occupation and employment status that are typically lost in aggregation there is also a greater range and variation in expenditure levels than found in grouped data this is of particular importance in the study of nutritional well being as it is the poorest households which are of special interest moreover the household sample provides sufficient degrees of freedom to estimate a simple varying parameter model which requires the estimation of 270 parameters previous econometric analysis of income class specific dietary choice has been limited and not altogether satisfactory pinstrup anderson de londono and hoover 1976 estimated complete sets of price elasticities for different income strata using frisch s scheme in order to study the impact of changes in relative prices on nutrient consumption their results are suspect because of the assumption of want independence necessary for this methodology to be valid alderman and timmer 1980 who were also concerned with studying the relationship between food price policy and nutrient intake by income classes econometrically estimated separate price coefficients for each income group by including slope dummy variables in their demand equations for rice and cassava in indonesia the inclusion of these dummy variables revealed surprisingly large differences in compensated price response across income groups although their results support the notion that poorer households respond differently to prices than the rich the limitations of their data constrained them to consider only two foods and to specify changes in price response which are discontinuous with respect to income i the formulation and estimation of the food demand equations is discussed in section ii below section iii presents the results of the estimation and discusses the nutritional implications of movements in relative food prices and other exogenous variables section iv summarizes our findings

the impact of maize price shocks on household food security panel evidence from tanzania abstract using three waves 2008 09 2010 11 2012 13 of the tanzanian national panel survey this study investigates the impact of maize price shocks on household food security between 2008 09 and 2012 13 calorie intake stagnated for urban households yet sharply deteriorated for rural households the latter was driven by a significant decline in the consumption of the major staple maize which showed strongest price hikes among all major food items fixed effects regressions indicate a clear negative relationship between maize prices and average household energy intake almost all population groups were found to be negatively affected by maize price shocks with rural landless households being the most vulnerable group in particular a 50 percent rise in maize prices decreases caloric intake for rural urban households on average by 4 4 5 4 percent and for rural landless households by 12 6 percent results further indicate that subsistence agriculture can act as an effective strategy to insure against food price volatility

income elasticities for food calories and nutrients across africa a meta analysis abstract this paper aims to provide a better understanding of the relationship between income and the demand for different types of food nutrients and calories in africa by conducting a meta analysis of income elasticity estimates we build a meta sample consisting of 1523 food income elasticities 369 nutrient income elasticities and 123 calorie income elasticities extracted from 66 primary studies covering 48 african countries the sample displays a large heterogeneity in income elasticity estimates which our meta analysis aims to explain by looking into attributes of the primary studies and characteristics of the countries considered there are significant differences in the size of the income elasticities across food and nutrient groups foods that make up basic diets tend to have lower income elasticities while elasticities are considerably higher for less basic and more aspirational foods the role of methodological attributes of the primary studies in explaining heterogeneity is found to be small overall our results confirm that although income growth in africa will increase food consumption and lead to more nutritionally diverse diets it is also associated with excessive intakes of fats and sugars raising concerns about over in addition to undernutrition this suggests that income based policies can still play a role in the fight against hunger but that targeted programs are needed to promote nutritionally valuable and healthy diets

income inequality and co2 emissions in the g7 1870 2014 evidence from non parametric modelling abstract we examine whether income inequality effected carbon emissions in what are now the world s wealthiest countries over the period 1870 2014 employing a non parametric panel estimation method with cross sectional and time varying coefficients we find that the relationship between income inequality and co2 emissions is highly non linear in terms of signs and significance the nonparametric coefficient function for income inequality is found to vary over the period 1870 2014 income inequality exhibits a significant positive effect from 1870 to 1880 and a significant negative impact from 1950 to 2000 on co2 emissions we also find that for extended periods between 1881 and 1949 and between 2000 and 2014 there is no significant relationship between the two variables

common trends and shocks to top incomes a structural breaks approach we use newly compiled top income data and structural breaks techniques to estimate common trends and breaks in inequality across countries over the twentieth century our results both confirm earli

the evolution of high incomes in northern america lessons from canadian evidence this paper uses tax statistics to construct new series on canadian top income shares from 1920 to 2000 and provides a systematic comparison with the u s experience as in the united states top income shares in canada display a ushaped pattern over the century with a precipitous drop during world war ii followed by a slower decline until 1970 since the late 1970s top income shares have been increasing dramatically and the very top shares are now as high as in the pre war era as in the united states the recent increase in top income shares is the consequence of a surge in top wages and salaries the canadian experience since the late 1970s does not appear to be well explained by tax changes suggesting that the upward trend in canada derives from the united states perhaps because many high income canadians have an emigration option this in turn suggests that the recent increase in u s personal income top shares is not merely a change in tax reporting behavior the recent sharp increase in top income shares in canada is of the same magnitude at the individual and family level and is not due to an increase in income mobility

top income shares in oecd countries the role of government ideology and globalisation this paper investigates how government ideology and globalisation are associated with top income shares in 17 oecd countries over the period 1970 to 2014 we use top income shares of the world wealth and income database wid globalisation is measured by the kof index of globalisation static and dynamic panel model results show that the top income shares increased more under right wing governments than under left wing governments the ideology induced effect was stronger when globalisation proceeded more rapidly globalisation was positively correlated with income shares of the upper middle class p99 p90 but negatively with income shares of the rich top 1 in the overall sample we show that the relationship differs between anglo saxon countries and other oecd countries globalisation was more pro rich in anglo saxon countries than in other oecd countries government ideology does not turn out to have a statistically significant effect on top income shares in anglo saxon countries after the 1980s whereas ideology induced differences in the distributional outcomes continued in other oecd countries

reducing child malnutrition how far does income growth take us how rapidly will child malnutrition respond to income growth this article explores that question using household survey data from 12 countries as well as data on malnutrition rates in a cross section of countries since the 1970s both forms of analysis yield similar results increases in income at the household and national levels imply similar rates of reduction in malnutrition using these estimates and better than historical income growth rates the article finds that the millennium development goal of halving the prevalence of underweight children by 2015 is unlikely to be met through income growth alone what is needed to accelerate reductions in malnutrition is a balanced strategy of income growth and investment in more direct interventions

time series minimum wage studies a meta analysis time series minimum wage studies a meta analysis author s david card and alan b krueger reviewed work s source the american economic review vol 85 no 2 papers and proceedings of the hundredth and seventh annual meeting of the american economic association washington dc january 6 8 1995 may 1995 pp 238 243 published by american economic association stable url http www jstor org stable 2117925 accessed 04 11 2011 15 46

pre industrial inequality is inequality largely the result of the industrial revolution or were preindustrial incomes as unequal as they are today for want of sufficient data these questions have not yet been answered this paper infers inequality for 30 pre industrial societies using what are known as social tables stretching from the roman empire 14 ad to byzantium in 1000 to england in 1688 to nueva espana around 1790 to china in 1880 and to british india in 1947 it applies two new concepts in making those assessments what we call the inequality possibility frontier and the inequality extraction ratio rather than simply offering measures of inequality we compare its observed level with the maximum feasible inequality or surplus that could have been extracted by the elite the results especially when compared with modern poor countries give new insights into the connection between inequality and economic development in the very long run

examining the heterogeneity in calorie income elasticities a meta analysis abstract several studies conducted over the past three decades on calorie income relationship appear to give inconclusive results this paper reviews these studies and employs meta regression analysis to examine the potential publication bias in the calorie income elasticity as well as the impact of specific study attributes on the elasticities that have been reported in the empirical literature a total of 40 empirical studies which yielded 99 estimated elasticities were considered the results indicate the presence of publication bias in the reported elasticities besides the estimates revealed evidence of positive and significant empirical effect of income on calorie intake from all the studies that goes beyond publication bias study attributes such as ranking of the journal panel data used in the analysis whether expenditure was used as proxy for income year of primary survey sample size and numbers of the years of primary data were found to have statistically significant impacts on the reported calorie income elasticities in the literature

the income and tax share of very high income households 1960 1995 this paper presents new information on the fraction of adjusted gross income and of wages and salaries that is reported by taxpayers in the top one half of one percent of the income distribution this corresponds to roughly five hundred thousand households in the late 1990s this paper relies on data from the treasury s individual income tax model for the period 1960 1995 the definition of adjusted gross income is standardized so that changes in the tax law do not affect the measured concentration of agi the results suggest that the share of agi reported by the highest income households increased significantly between the early 1980s and the mid 1990s with most of the increase taking place in the years immediately following the tax reform act of 1986 while we find some evidence of transitory changes in the concentration of income around major tax changes which may be the result of income retiming by high income taxpayers re timing does not seem to explain most of the changes since 1986 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

productivity health and inequality in the intrahousehold distribution of food in low income countries a model is formulated incorporating linkages among nutrition labor market productivity health heterogeneity and the intrahousehold distribution of food and work activities in a subsistence economy empirical results based on a sample of households from bangladesh indicate that despite considerable intrahousehold disparities in calorie consumption households are averse to inequality furthermore consistent with the model the results also indicate that both the higher level and greater variance in the calories consumed by men relative to women reflect in part the greater participation by men in activities in which productivity is sensitive to health status copyright 1990 by american economic association

are estimates of calorie income fxelasticities too high a recalibration of the plausible range abstract the wide range of calorie income elasticities in the literature results in large part from the particular calorie and income variables used for estimation elasticities across four estimation techniques and four calorie income variable pairs for a sample of philippine farm households ranged from 0 03 to 0 59 estimates associated with calorie availability are biased upwards first because random errors in measuring food purchases are transmitted by construction both to calorie availability and total expenditures and second because the residual difference between family calorie intake and household calorie availability will often increase with income the calorie intake total expenditure variable pair gives the preferred elasticity estimate in the 0 08 0 14 range

growth de regulation and rent seeking in post war british economy abstractpost war political consensus about the need for government action to rectify market failure began to unravel in the 1970s and even the need for prudential control of banking and finance began to be challenged by the start of the 1980s regulatory oversight was relaxed in the belief that emerging techniques in financial engineering would render irrelevant fears of sharp periodic downturns that have historically been the consequence of lightly regulated finance the outcome of this new policy embracing the idea of unregulated markets to deliver greater prosperity is disappointing we find that the average growth rate of uk gdp and output per person employed for three decades from the start of liberalization was no greater than that in the previous three post war decades cyclical fluctuations were deeper a remarkable feature of the second period is the sharp rise in income inequality in favour of the very top earners an illusion of greater prosperity for a wider segment may have been created in

top incomes in germany and switzerland over the twentieth century this paper presents new homogeneous series on top income shares in germany 1891 1998 and switzerland 1933 1995 using data from income tax returns the general pattern is consistent with recent results for france the secular decline in income inequality is for the most part an accidental capital income phenomenon very top incomes were badly hurt by the major shocks of the 1914 1945 period and never fully recovered afterwards since 1945 top income shares have been relatively stable with no rise during recent years unlike in the u s the striking episode before wwii is how nazi power brought top income shares to almost double within five years the striking result after wwii is that german top incomes are more concentrated within the top decile than in other industrialized countries thus the german super rich were richer than their american counterparts until the 1990s this puzzle is related to the much lower inheritance tax rates observed in germany since wwii jel n33 n34 h23 h24 h23 h24 h23 h24 h23 h24

on the long run evolution of inheritance france 1820 2050 this paper attempts to document and account for the long run evolution of inheritance we find that in a country like france the annual flow of inheritance was about 20 25 of national income between 1820 and 1910 down to less than 5 in 1950 and back up to about 15 by 2010 a simple theoretical model of wealth accumulation growth and inheritance can fully account for the observed u shaped pattern and levels using this model we find that under plausible assumptions the annual bequest flow might reach about 20 25 of national income by 2050 this corresponds to a capitalized bequest share in total wealth accumulation well above 100 our findings illustrate the fact that when the growth rate g is small and when the rate of return to private wealth r is permanently and substantially larger than the growth rate say r 4 5 vs g 1 2 which was the case in the 19th century and early 20th century and is likely to happen again in the 21st century then past wealth and inheritance are bound to play a key role for aggregate wealth accumulation and the structure of lifetime inequality contrarily to a widely spread view modern economic growth did not kill inheritance

top incomes in sweden over three quarters of a century a micro data approach this paper aims to throw light on the development of top incomes in sweden as well as the causes for change using household income data we show that since the first half of the 1980s real income at the top of the distribution has developed more favourably than for other groups this contrasts with the changes which occurred prior to the 1980s reasons for the rise in the top income share are several the development of stock prices tax reforms and the labour market change of top wages increasing more rapidly than others

reexamining the cyclical behavior of the relative price of investment we document the cyclical behavior of the relative price of investment goods for the us economy over the last fifty years there is no robust evidence that this relative price is countercyclical for the post 1983 period it is predominantly procyclical

beyond publication bias abstract this review considers several meta regression and graphical methods that can differentiate genuine empirical effect from publication bias publication selection exists when editors reviewers or researchers have a preference for statistically significant results because all areas of empirical research are susceptible to publication selection any average or tally of significant insignificant studies is likely to be biased and potentially misleading meta regression analysis can see through the murk of random sampling error and selected misspecification bias to identify the underlying statistical structures that characterize genuine empirical effect meta significance testing and precision effect testing pet are offered as a means to identify empirical effect beyond publication bias and are applied to four areas of empirical economics research minimum wage effects union productivity effects price elasticities and tests of the natural rate hypothesis

comparing the distribution of top incomes across countries comparing the distribution of top incomes across countries raises many methodological problems including differences in tax legislation and in tax avoidance the definition of the income unit and the definition of a control total for income the paper considers the significance of these problems in three applications comparing top income shares at a point in time analysing the extent of convergence or divergence over time and setting national changes in the context of the world distribution of income jel d31

estimating the demand for calories in india this article examines the long run relationship between per capita calorie intake per capita income and food prices using aggregate data for india 1961 1992 cointegration analysis yields an income elasticity of calorie intake of 0 34 while the food price elasticity is insignificant thus economic growth in india as measured by increasing per capita income has significantly improved calorie intake future income growth can alleviate further inadequate nutrition however significant improvements in calorie intake cannot be made directly by food subsidies a further result is that calorie intake is granger caused by income and not vice versa income generation is unconstrained by calorie intake

income inequality in the united states 1913 1998 this paper presents new homogeneous series on top shares of income and wages from 1913 to 1998 in the united states using individual tax returns data top income and wages shares display a u shaped pattern over the century our series suggest that the large shocks that capital owners experienced during the great depression and world war ii have had a permanent effect on top capital incomes we argue that steep progressive income and estate taxation may have prevented large fortunes from fully recovering from these shocks top wage shares were flat before world war ii dropped precipitously during the war and did not start to recover before the late 1960s but are now higher than before world war ii as a result the working rich have replaced the rentiers at the top of the income distribution

how much income redistribution an explanation based on vote buying and corruption this paper studies how income tax rates are determined and how they are related to government corruption in the form of fund capture a model is presented where rich voters can block redistribution by buying the votes of some poor voters in equilibrium there is only limited redistribution and income tax rates are a negative function of government corruption when rich voters can bribe the government an additional equilibrium with zero taxation is possible the link between corruption and tax rates is tested using cross country data the empirical evidence is fully consistent with the predictions of the model

the circular relationship between inequality leverage and financial crises in this paper we put into perspective the recent literature which points to inequality as a possible cause of credit bubbles by reintegrating it into a more general analysis on the two way relationship between inequality and finance we focus more specifically on situations where high inequalities and widespread access to credit coexist and argue that even when institutions maintain more or less equal access to finance there may be a dynamic positive circular relationship between inequality and financial development however even if there is some evidence in the literature of a positive causal impact of inequality on credit this does not preclude other important cofounding factors the conclusions concerning the distributional impact of finance are more ambiguous a survey of the empirical literature highlights several issues that must be tackled first endogeneity reverse causality and coincidental factors are major concerns second the choice of consistent measurements for the key variables both credit and inequality has strong empirical implications and must be grounded on relevant theoretical channels third those circular dynamics have substantial policy implications for emerging economies since an increasing number face a joint increase in inequality and credit

centralization of bargaining and wage inequality a correction of wallerstein wage inequality is a subject of intense political and substantive concern and di erencesin the extent of wage inequality between the anglo american economies and those of con tinental europe animate public and scholarly discussion the wide earnings di erentialsobserved in the united states and the united kingdom are commonly justi ed as the properand necessary incentives for a mature growth oriented economy the narrower income dif ferentials encountered in continental europe are rationalized as necessary for the protectionof the less well paid and the integrity of the social fabric the upward secular trend in wageinequality in the us since the 1970s which is a stark reversal of the pattern observed duringthe preceding 40 years is also a topic attracting wide public and scholarly attention despite the importance of the subject and the amount of attention that it has received the extensive literature on the economic impact of wage bargaining institutions in advanceddemocratic societies contains only a few widely accepted ndings one of these is that morecentralized bargaining institutions strongly encourage wage equality no less an authoritativeorgan than the oecd notes for instance that there is a fairly robust relation betweencross country di erences in earnings inequality and bargaining structures oecd 1997 p 64 several well designed country speci c studies support the claim that the system ofcollective bargaining is a major determinant of variations in the extent of wage inequality hibbs and locking 1996 2000 erickson and ichino 1995 yet even the most careful andwell executed country level results may be a ected by idiosyncratic country speci c factors evidence at the cross national level is required the most careful and convincing cross national empirical documentation of the link between centralized bargaining institutionsand wage inequality appears in wallerstein 1999 published in this journal

the return of patrimonial capitalism a review of thomas piketty s capital in the twenty first century capital in the twenty first century by thomas piketty provides a unified theory of the functioning of the capitalist economy by linking theories of economic growth and functional and personal income distributions it argues based on the long run historical data series that the forces of economic divergence including rising income inequality tend to dominate in capitalism it regards the twentieth century as an exception to this rule and proposes policies that would make capitalism sustainable in the twenty first century jel d31 d33 e25 n10 n30 p16

the effect of price and income changes on food energy intake in sri lanka data is used to analyze the food acquisition behavior of households from a 1980 81 survey designed to be nationally sectorally and regionally representative of sri lanka the poor are shown to be much more responsive to price and income changes than other income groups the urban population generally exhibits lower income elasticities of demand for food commodities the poor appear to efficient substitutors thereby mitigating the effects of a price change on caloric intake the important exception is rice whose elasticity of calorie consumption with respect to price was about 4 times higher than for any other commodity the reluctance of households to substitute for rice even when faced with rising prices coupled with its large budget share show rice to be the most important consumption good higher rice prices are an important determinant of poverty for landless and urban workers moderating food prices preferably through technological change is a key ingredient to raising consumption among the poor simulations show that even if there are rapid and proportional increases in expenditures of all income groups this will not dramatically increase caloric intake among the poor however if the absolute value of the increase in real expenditures were distributed equally to all households there would be a marked increase in the of households consuming an adequate diet

top indian incomes 1922 2000 this article presents data on the evolution of top incomes and wages for 1922 2000 in india using individual tax return data the data show that the shares of the top 0 01 percent 0 1 percent and 1 percent in total income shrank substantially from the 1950s to the early to mid 1980s but then rose again so that today these shares are only slightly below what they were in the 1920s and 1930s this u shaped pattern is broadly consistent with the evolution of economic policy in india from the 1950s to the early to mid 1980s was a period of socialist policies in india whereas the subsequent period starting with the rise of rajiv gandhi saw a gradual shift toward more pro business policies although the initial share of the top income group was small the fact that the rich were getting richer had a nontrivial impact on the overall income distribution although the impact is not large enough to fully explain the gap observed during the 1990s between average consumption growths shown in national sample survey based data and the national accounts based data it is sufficiently large to explain a non negligible part of it

joint determination of food consumption and production in rural sierra leone estimates of a household firm model abstract this paper investigates the determination of food consumption for rural households in sierra leone that produce the foods which they consume a household firm model is estimated with seven commodities including five foods non foods and labor as compared to three commodities in past studies such food disaggregation permits tracing of the effects of socioeconomic variables on household nutrient availability household specialization in production is such that censored data is a problem a tobit approach is used to correct for this for most crops the own price effects on consumption remain negative when a price change is allowed to shift the budget constraint by effecting the profits from home production elasticities of calorie availability with respect to toal expenditure are found to be sizeable varying little by expenditure group the price elasticities of calorie availability are generally positive however an important exception occurs for price of the staple food rice this exception has several important policy implications which are explored

durable goods investment shocks and the comovement problem sticky price models suggest that capital investment shocks are an important driver of business cycle fluctuations despite quantitative importance in explaining business cycles a comovement problem emerges because the shocks generate intertemporal substitution effects away from consumption toward investment this paper resolves the problem by extending the standard sticky price model to a two sector model with consumer durable services when durable goods are used as investment in capital and consumer durables positive capital investment shocks also generate intratemporal substitution effects away from consumer durable services toward nondurable consumption that dominates intertemporal effects consequently consumption increases and the comovement problem is resolved

village banking and maternal and child health evidence from ecuador and honduras abstract many microcredit institutions bundle credit with health education or other programs this paper reviews arguments on such tie ins and concludes that net benefits are possible but requires empirical testing quasi experimental data from project hope s health banks and credit only village banks are then examined the paper presents evidence that health practices do not improve automatically with greater wealth in honduras results show that health bank participation is robustly associated with reduced subsequent conditional child diarrhea probability but in no specification does credit only bank participation have this effect in ecuador results suggest a larger effect of credit only banks in both countries health bank participation significantly raises subsequent healthcare over credit only participation and at least reduces the tendency to switch from breast feeding to bottle feeding as income rises effects on expenditures are ambiguous there is no clear link between tie ins and bank performance

investment shocks and business cycles abstract the origins of business cycles are still controversial among macroeconomists this paper contributes to this debate by studying the driving forces of fluctuations in an estimated new neoclassical synthesis model of the u s economy in this model most of the variability of output and hours at business cycle frequencies is due to shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment imperfect competition and to a lesser extent technological frictions are the key to their transmission although labor supply shocks explain a large fraction of the fluctuations in hours at very low frequencies they are irrelevant over the business cycle this finding is important because the microfoundations of these disturbances are widely regarded as unappealing

will developing country nutrition improve with income a case study for rural south india aggregate estimates of food expenditure are consistent with such a possibility implying income expenditure elasticities close to one however the high degree of aggregation at which such estimates are made means that the considerable increase in price per nutrient as income increases is ignored and the nutrient elasticities are therefore overstated estimates for a rural south indian sample indicate that this bias is considerable and that the true nutrient elasticities with respect to income may be close to zero

stratification by regulation are bootleggers and baptists biased this paper investigates whether and to what extent regulation may be associated with wage inequality using regulation measures created by al ubaydli and mclaughlin regul govern 11 109 123 2017 i find that regulation is associated with larger within occupation wage inequality specifically i show that a worker at the 90th wage percentile realizes a raise of 1 19 per hour relative to the 10th percentile earner for each standard deviation increase in regulation that represents a 3 5 raise for a worker at the 90th percentile overall increases in the regulatory burden are associated with 42 45 of the change in the 90th 10th percentile wage ratio from 2002 through 2014

the income elasticity of money demand a meta analysis of empirical results abstract in this paper we use meta analytic methods to investigate possible sources for the large variation in empirical findings about the income elasticity of money demand our results suggest that the broadness of the monetary aggregate the inclusion of wealth and the consideration of financial innovation exert a significant influence on estimated income elasticities furthermore we find substantial cross country differences in particular between the us and other countries these differences can to some extent be explained by the macrofeconomic environment and the dissemination of payment cards

the evolution of top incomes in an egalitarian society sweden 1903 2004 this study presents new homogenous series of top income shares in sweden over the period 1903 2004 we find that starting from levels of inequality approximately equal to those in other western countries at the time the income share of the swedish top decile drops sharply over the first eighty years of the twentieth century most of the decrease takes place before the expansion of the welfare state and by 1950 swedish top income shares were already lower than in other countries the fall is almost entirely due to a dramatic drop in the top percentile explained mostly by decreases in capital income while the lower half of the top decile consisting mainly of wage earners experiences virtually no change over this period in the past decades top income shares evolve very differently depending on whether capital gains are included or not when included sweden s experience resembles that in the u s and the u k with sharp increases in top incomes excluding capital gains sweden looks more like the continental european countries where top income shares have remained relatively constant a possible interpretation of our results is that sweden over the past 20 years has become a country where it is more important to make the right financial investments than to earn a lot to become rich

the distribution of wealth and fiscal policy in economies with finitely lived agents we study the dynamics of the distribution of wealth in an overlapping generation economy with finitely lived agents and intergenerational transmission of wealth financial markets are incomplete exposing agents to both labor and capital income risk we show that the stationary wealth distribution is a pareto distribution in the right tail and that it is capital income risk rather than labor income that drives the properties of the right tail of the wealth distribution we also study analytically the dependence of the distribution of wealth of wealth inequality in particular on various fiscal policy instruments like capital income taxes and estate taxes and on different degrees of social mobility we show that capital income and estate taxes can significantly reduce wealth inequality as do institutions favoring social mobility finally we calibrate the economy to match the lorenz curve of the wealth distribution of the u s economy

wealth concentration in a developing economy paris and france 1807 1994 using large samples of estate tax returns we construct new series on wealth concentration in paris and france from 1807 to 1994 inequality increased until 1914 because industrial and financial estates grew dramatically then adverse shocks rather than a kuznets type process led to a massive decline in inequality the very high wealth concentration prior to 1914 benefited retired individuals living off capital income rentiers rather than entrepreneurs the very rich were in their seventies and eighties whereas they had been in their fifties a half century earlier and would be so again after world war ii our results shed new light on ongoing debates about wealth inequality and growth

the distribution of top earnings in the uk since the second world war much of the change in individual earnings has occurred at the top this paper provides new evidence about the earnings distribution in the uk the evidence is new in that it provides detail about what has happened within the top 10 covering groups such as the top 1 and the top 0 5 the aim is to set the recent rise in top earnings in historical perspective and to make international comparisons the evidence is new in that it covers the whole of the postwar period allowing a contrast to be drawn with the golden age of the 1950s

top incomes in the long run of history a recent literature has constructed top income shares time series over the long run for more than twenty countries using income tax statistics top incomes represent a small share of the population but a very significant share of total income and total taxes paid hence aggregate economic growth per capita and gini inequality indexes are sensitive to excluding or including top incomes we discuss the estimation methods and issues that arise when constructing top income share series including income definition and comparability over time and across countries tax avoidance and tax evasion we provide a summary of the key empirical findings most countries experience a dramatic drop in top income shares in the first part of the twentieth century in general due to shocks to top capital incomes during the wars and depression shocks top income shares do not recover in the immediate postwar decades however over the last thirty years top income shares have increased substantially in english speaking countries and in india and china but not in continental european countries or japan this increase is due in part to an unprecedented surge in top wage incomes as a result wage income comprises a larger fraction of top incomes than in the past finally we discuss the theoretical and empirical models that have been proposed to account for the facts and the main questions that remain open

food demand studies in sub saharan africa a survey of empirical evidence abstract the recent empirical food demand studies on sub saharan africa show significant advances in demand specification and methodology especially in the application of less restrictive and theoretically consistent flexible functional forms the findings to date establish some broad patterns on effect of income household demography and life cycle location and prices on food demand patterns however the numerical values of the demand estimates are less generalizable because of an insufficient number of data points to separate the true demand component from other confounding factors which are linked to differences in modeling and estimation of demand relations the priority for future research is to generate sufficiently detailed demand estimates that have a high utility for disaggregated policy analysis but are based on a theoretically consistent and comparable methodology

the evolution of income concentration in japan 1886 2005 evidence from income tax statistics abstract this paper studies the evolution of income concentration in japan from 1886 to 2005 by constructing long run series of top income shares and top wage income shares using income tax statistics we find that i income concentration was extremely high throughout the pre wwii period during which the nation underwent rapid industrialization ii a drastic de concentration of income at the top took place in 1938 1945 iii income concentration remained low during the rest of the century but shows some sign of increase in the last decade and iv top income composition in japan has shifted dramatically from capital income to employment income over the course of the twentieth century we attribute the precipitous fall in income concentration during wwii primarily to the collapse of capital income due to wartime regulations and inflation we argue that the change in the institutional structure under the occupational reforms made the one time income de concentration difficult to reverse in contrast t

institutions partisanship and inequality in the long run it has been widely suggested by political scientists and economists based on empirical evidence for the period since 1970 that the institution of centralized wage bargaining and the presence of a government of the left are associated with lower levels of income inequality the authors make use of new data on top income shares as well as long run series on wage inequality to examine the effects of partisanship and wage bargaining over a much longer time period nearly the entire twentieth century their empirical results provide little support for the idea that either of these two factors is correlated with income inequality over this period they then show that a closer look at the introduction of centralized wage bargaining in individual countries during the middle part of the twentieth century reveals that in countries that moved to centralize wage bargaining income inequality had already been trending downward well before the institutional change that the move to centralized bargaining did not alter this trend and that these changes in income inequality were also observed in countries that did not adopt centralized wage bargaining at this time the results suggest that there were alternative institutional paths to reduced income inequality during most of the twentieth century this raises the possibility that either structural economic changes or commonly shared economic and political events such as world wars and economic crises may ultimately be more important for understanding the evolution of income inequality than are the institutional or partisan characteristics commonly considered to be decisive by political scientists

an exploration into pigou s theory of cycles abstract this paper explores a theory of business cycles in which recessions and booms arise due to difficulties encountered by agents in properly forecasting the economy s future needs in terms of capital the idea has a long history in the macroeconomic literature as reflected by the work of pigou industrial fluctuation macmillan london 1926 the contribution of this paper is twofold first we illustrate the type of general equilibrium structure that can give rise to such phenomena second we examine the extent to which such a model can explain the observed pattern of u s recessions frequency depth without relying on technological regress we argue that such a model offer a framework for understanding elements of both the recent u s recession and of the asia downturns of the late 1990s

women wealth and mobility using estate tax returns data we observe that the share of women among the very wealthy in the united states peaked in the late 1960s at nearly one half and then declined to one third we argue that this pattern reflects changes in the importance of dynastic wealth with the share of women proxying for inher ited wealth if so wealth mobility decreased until the 1970s and rose thereafter such an interpretation is consistent with technological change driving long term trends in mobility and inequality as well as the recent divergence between top wealth and top income shares documented elsewhere jel d31 j16 j62 033 the extent of and changes in intergenerational mobility of wealth are central to understanding dynamics of wealth inequality but are hard to measure in this paper we argue that the share of women among the wealthiest americans can be used as a proxy for the importance of inherited rela tive to self made wealth this approach assumes that women tend to inherit rather than make great fortunes if so a higher share of women among the wealthy would reflect a rise in inherited wealth at the top and thus lower wealth mobility conversely higher wealth mobility where self made wealth replaces inherited wealth would result in more men at the top of the wealth distribution judged by this proxy and corroborated by various data sources wealth mobility decreased in the period 1925 1969 and increased thereafter such a pattern is consistent with an important role for technological change in shaping the wealth distribution and can provide an explanation for why wealth concentra tion has remained stable despite increasing income concentration in the last three decades over the past century the share of women among the very wealthy followed an inverse u pattern peaking in the late 1960s according to estate tax returns in 1925 one quarter of the wealthiest 0 01 percent were women this fraction rose rapidly through world war ii wwii and then more slowly to peak in 1969 when women neared parity with men since then the decline has been marked by 2000 women s share had fallen to one third its prewar level while the rise was evident among all wealth groups in the top 1 percent of the wealth distribution the decline was confined to the very top figure ia graphs the share of women for four different groups in the top 1 percent among decedents by year figure ib does the same for the living population with the help of estate multipliers a method that treats death as a random sampling device and uses mortality rates by age and gender to infer the distribution of wealth among the living as described in the data appendix while the rise in the share of women among the wealthy until the 1960s could reflect improve ments in women s economic status labor market gains work against the recent decline for instance since the 1970s the share of women among top earners top 0 1 percent has risen by

habit formation and intertemporal substitution in individual food consumption individual food consumption data are used to examine three issues first is food consumption linked intertemporally at the individual level second does the association between current and past consumption reflect habit or heterogeneity third what do the estimates imply about the intertemporal elasticity of substitution the authors find that habit matters that controlling for heterogeneity reduces estimated habit effects and that the product of the estimated intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the risk aversion parameter is less than one these results all lead to rejection of time separable specifications of intertemporal consumption behavior copyright 1996 by mit press

how progressive is the u s federal tax system a historical and international perspective this paper provides estimates of federal tax rates by income groups in the united states since 1960 with special emphasis on very top income groups we include individual and corporate income taxes payroll taxes and estate and gift taxes the progressivity of the u s federal tax system at the top of the income distribution has declined dramatically since the 1960s this dramatic drop in progressivity is due primarily to a drop in corporate taxes and in estate and gift taxes combined with a sharp change in the composition of top incomes away from capital income and toward labor income the sharp drop in statutory top marginal individual income tax rates has contributed only moderately to the decline in tax progressivity international comparisons confirm that is it critical to take into account other taxes than the individual income tax to properly assess the extent of overall tax progressivity both for time trends and for cross country comparisons the pattern for the united kingdom is similar to the u s pattern france had less progressive taxes than the united states or the united kingdom in 1970 but has experienced an increase in tax progressivity and has now a more progressive tax system than the united states or the united kingdom

veblen effects political representation and the reduction in working time over the 20th century abstract we explain the substantial decline in work hours over the 20th century by the joint influence of the employees pecuniary emulation of the conspicuous consumption of top income earners and the balance of political power of employers and employees in the presence of conflicts of interest over the issue of working time we present a new labor discipline model incorporating veblen effects in which hours are determined by employers and subject to complete contracts but employee work effort is not we show that while veblen effects increase the hours sought by employees the hours selected by profit maximizing employers may exceed that preferred by employees who may then seek to reduce work hours by means of collective bargaining or governmental intervention we also identify conditions under which employees will prefer longer hours than offered by employers using newly available data on top income shares and on work hours from 10 major industrial economies and covering the entire past century we test two hypotheses that increases in the relative incomes of the very rich are associated with increased hours while increases in the political representation of workers have the opposite effect the estimated effects are large in economic magnitude highly significant and robust to alternative econometric specifications including country and time fixed effects using an alternative data set covering the last third of the past century we show that these results are robust to the inclusion of a measure of taxation and find that decentralized trade union bargaining but not centralized bargaining may raise working hours

how closely do top income shares track other measures of inequality in recent years researchers have used taxation statistics to estimate the share of total income held by the richest groups such as the top 10 or the top 1 compiling a standardised top income shares dataset for 13 developed countries i find that there is a strong and significant relationship between top income shares and broader inequality measures such as the gini coefficient this suggests that panel data on top income shares may be a useful substitute for other measures of inequality over periods when alternative income distribution measures are of low quality or unavailable

investor sophistication and capital income inequality abstract capital income inequality is large and growing fast accounting for a significant portion of total income inequality we study its growth in a general equilibrium portfolio choice model with endogenous information acquisition and heterogeneity across household sophistication and asset riskiness the model implies capital income inequality that grows with aggregate information technology investors differentially adjust both the size and the composition of their portfolios as unsophisticated investors retrench from trading risky securities and shift their portfolios to safer assets technological progress also reduces aggregate returns and increases the volume of transactions features that are consistent with recent u s data

intergenerational earnings persistence and economic inequality in the long run evidence from french cohorts 1931 75 this paper analyses long term trends in intergenerational earnings persistence in france for male cohorts born between 1931 and 1975 this time period has witnessed important changes in the french labour market and educational system in particular an important compression of earnings differentials as well as a large expansion in access to secondary and higher education using a two sample instrumental variables approach i estimate two measures of intergenerational economic persistence the intergenerational earnings elasticity ige and the intergenerational correlation igc over the period the ige exhibits a v shaped pattern it falls from a high of value of 0 6 for cohorts born in the 1930s to around 0 4 for those born in the 1950s but subsequently rises to a level close to that at the beginning of the period in contrast the igc remains relatively stable over the period this suggests that changes in the ige are partly driven by transitory responses to changes in cross sectional inequality rather than long term changes in the degree of intergenerational persistence

food quality calories and household income the authors investigate the relationship between calories food quality and household per capita expenditure using regression and semi parametric methods on a sample of poor households from rural mexico where programa de apoyo alimentario pal a targeted nutritional program is operating the semi parametric method yields an estimate of the elasticity between calorie and expenditure of 0 39 below the median and 0 28 above the corresponding estimates of the elasticity of the calorie price are 0 48 below the median and 0 45 above the authors also examine the extent to which the expenditure elasticity of the calorie price is explained by substitution between and within major food groups it is found that there is a very high incidence of substitution within cereals especially for poor households and that between group substitution explains at most 59 percent of the income elasticity for food quality these estimates suggest that the potential of a cash transfer program to have a positive impact on the food diversity and the nutritional status of households is quite limited the paper is organized as follows section one gives introduction section two describes the data the econometric specification and estimation approaches used and presents and discusses descriptive evidence on the intake of calories and the price of calories in the sample the relationship between calories the cost of calories and household expenditure is studied using regression and semi parametric methods in section three section four concludes by summarizing the policy implications of findings

the long run history of income inequality in denmark we use historical publications and micro data from the tax returns to construct internationally comparable estimates of the development in income inequality in denmark over the last 140 years the study shows that income inequality and top income shares have declined during several distinct phases in between periods of stability furthermore the quality of the danish data allows us to analyse not only the development in top income shares but also broader inequality measures such as the gini coefficient these analyses show that top income shares are a good proxy for the overall level of inequality

women in top incomes evidence from sweden 1971 2017 abstract using yearly register data on the full population of sweden we study gender differences in top incomes down to the top 0 01 percentile group over the period 1971 2017 we find that while women are still a minority of the top decile and typically make up a smaller share the higher up in the distribution we move their presence has steadily increased in all top groups over the past half century at the beginning of the period top income women relied more on capital incomes but the rise in the share of top women is not due to the growing importance of capital instead women have increased their presence in the top by gains in the top of labour incomes while top income men have captured most of the growth in capital incomes studying gender differences in observable characteristics we find small gender differences in some respects convergence in others but also some important remaining differences overall our results suggest that many findings in the top income literature have a clear gender component and that understanding gender equality in the top of the distribution requires studying not only earnings and labour market outcomes but also incomes from other sources as well as family circumstances

the conscription of wealth mass warfare and the demand for progressive taxation the dominant narrative of the politics of redistribution in political sci ence and economics highlights the signature role of the rise of electoral democracy and the development of political parties that mobilize working class groups we argue in this article that this narrative ignores the critical role played by mass warfare in the development of redistributive public policies focusing attention on the determi nants of progressive taxation we argue that mobilization for mass warfare led to demands for increased taxation of the wealthy to more fairly distribute the burden for the war effort we then show empirically that during the past century mass mobi lization for war has been associated with a notable increase in tax progressivity in the absence of war neither the establishment of universal suffrage nor the arrival of political control by parties of the left is systematically associated with large increases in tax progressivity in making these arguments we devote particular attention to a difference in differences comparison of participants and nonparticipants in world war i those who have made fortunes out of the war must pay for the war and labour will insist upon heavily graduated direct taxation with a raising of the exemption limit that is what labour means by the conscription of wealth

the demand for food and calories we investigate nutrition and expenditure in rural maharashtra in india we estimate that the elasticity of calorie consumption with respect to total expenditure is 0 3 0 5 a range that is in accord with conventional wisdom the elasticity declines only slowly with levels of living and is far from the value of zero suggested by a recent revisionist literature in these indian data the calories necessary for a day s activity cost less than 5 percent of the daily wage which makes it implausible that income is constrained by nutrition rather than the other way around

distributional national accounts methods and estimates for the united states this article combines tax survey and national accounts data to estimate the distribution of national income in the united states since 1913 our distributional national accounts capture 100 of national income allowing us to compute growth rates for each quantile of the income distribution consistent with macroeconomic growth we estimate the distribution of both pretax and posttax income making it possible to provide a comprehensive view of how government redistribution affects inequality average pretax real national income per adult has increased 60 from 1980 to 2014 but we find that it has stagnated for the bottom 50 of the distribution at about 16 000 a year the pretax income of the middle class adults between the median and the 90th percentile has grown 40 since 1980 faster than what tax and survey data suggest due in particular to the rise of tax exempt fringe benefits income has boomed at the top the upsurge of top incomes was first a labor income phenomenon but has mostly been a capital income phenomenon since 2000 the government has offset only a small fraction of the increase in inequality the reduction of the gender gap in earnings has mitigated the increase in inequality among adults but the share of women falls steeply as one moves up the labor income distribution and is only 11 in the top 0 1 in 2014

the forbes 400 and the pareto wealth distribution abstract statistical regularities at the top end of the wealth distribution are examined using the forbes 400 lists during 1988 2003 we find that the wealth is distributed according to a pareto power law distribution with an average exponent of 1 49

instability and concentration in the distribution of wealth abstract we consider a setup in which infinitely lived households face idiosyncratic investment risk and show that in this case the equilibrium distribution of wealth becomes increasingly right skewed over time until wealth concentrates entirely at the top the households in our setup are identical in terms of their patience and their abilities and we assume that there are no redistributive mechanisms neither explicit in the form of government tax or fiscal policies nor implicit in the form of limited intergenerational transfers our results demonstrate that the presence of such redistributive mechanisms alone ensures the stability of the distribution of wealth over time

recent trends in top income shares in the usa reconciling estimates from march cps and irs tax return data although the majority of research on us income inequality trends is based on public use march cps data a new wave of research using irs tax return data reports substantially higher levels of inequality and faster growing trends we show that these apparently inconsistent estimates are largely reconciled if the inequality measure and the income distribution are defined in the same way using internal cps data for 1967 2006 we closely match irs data based estimates of top income shares reported by piketty and saez 2003 our results imply that any inequality increases since 1993 are concentrated among the top 1 percent of the distribution

the dynamic effects of neutral and investment specific technology shocks the neoclassical growth model is used to identify the short run effects of neutral technology shocks which affect the production of all goods homogeneously and investment specific shocks which affect only investment goods the real equipment price crucial for identifying the investment shocks experiences an abrupt increase in its average rate of decline in 1982 so the analysis is based on a split sample on the basis of the preferred specification the two technology shocks account for 73 percent of hours and 44 percent of output s business cycle variation before 1982 and 38 percent and 80 percent afterward the shocks also account for more than 40 percent of hours and 58 percent of output s forecast errors over a three to eight year horizon in both samples the majority of these effects are driven by the investment shocks

identification and panel data models with endogenous regressors this paper provides sufficient conditions for the identification of both static and dynamic models containing endogenous regressors from panel data by utilizing the restrictions across time periods on the parameters it is shown that identification is achieved under quite weak conditions even in the presence of a general pattern of correlation between the errors and the time varying variables efficient estimation procedures for the models considered and some specification tests are outlined finally static formulations relating individuals intakes of nutrients in the previous 24 hours to household incomes are estimated using icrisat panel data from rural india

efficiency aspects of increasing inheritance taxes while decreasing income taxes this article tries to shed some light on the economic efficiency aspects of a tax reform that would increase inheritance taxes while decreasing income taxes an analysis of labour market decisions following the activation of such a reform is presented an international comparison of inheritance tax collection shows that almost all industrial countries impose an inheritance tax however government revenue from inheritance and gift taxes in europe is lower than 1 of gdp and is very low in the united states as well applying the proposed reform could increase work hours and delay retirement decisions

more evidence on nutrition demand income seems overrated and women s schooling underemphasized abstract malnutrition is widespread in the developing world controversy continues concerning the roles of income household size and women s schooling on nutrient demand empirical estimates for nicaragua suggest that income elasticities are small and inversely associated with income levels there are some economies of scale in household size the elasticity for women s schooling is higher than those for income or household size and women s backgrounds are important the results cast doubt on the strong emphasis the world bank and others have placed on income and suggest that schooling may be working through tastes not only through productivity