labor force participation interest rate shocks and unemployment dynamics in emerging economies abstract emerging economies emes have highly volatile unemployment and real wages standard models with interest rate shocks can generate higher unemployment volatility but still fall quantitatively short of matching the empirical volatility of unemployment a small open economy search model with endogenous participation and self employment a feature of emes generates 90 percent of the volatility of unemployment in the data highly volatile wages and quantitatively consistent cyclical aggregate dynamics amid productivity and interest rate shocks of plausible magnitudes endogenous participation amplifies shocks and plays a critical role in overcoming a key limitation of standard search models for emes

job destruction and propagation of shocks this paper considers propagation of aggregate shocks in a dynamic general equilibrium model with labor market matching and endogenous job destruction cyclical fluctuations in the job destruction rate magnify the output effects of shocks as well as making them much more persistent interactions between capital adjustment and the job destruction rate play an important role in generating persistence propagation effects are shown to be quantitatively substantial when the model is calibrated using job flow data incorporating costly capital adjustment leads to significantly greater propagation

competitive price and quality under asymmetric information we present an analysis of equilibrium in markets with asymmetrically informed consumers some consumers know both price and quality of all sellers whereas others know neither but may search among sellers the equilibrium correlation between price and quality generally increases with the level of information in the market and can be negative when this level is sufficiently small a meta analysis of the available empirical studies strongly supports the model s predictions

technical note a price vector model of demand for consumer durables preliminary developments although considerable research has been conducted on optimal pricing policies for manufacturers relatively little work has been done on how price enters the consumer choice process in this paper a model is developed for durables purchasing which integrates both economic and behavioral research by specifying a vector of five price concepts which affect purchasing behavior of particular interest are variables relating to future price expectations due to data limitations a revised model is estimated and the results provide preliminary support for the general model

on the job search sticky prices and persistence abstract models of the monetary transmission mechanism often generate empirically implausible business fluctuations this paper analyzes the role of on the job search in the propagation of monetary shocks in a sticky price model with labor market search frictions such frictions induce long term employment relationships such that the real marginal cost is determined by real wages and the cost of an employment relationship on the job search opens up an extra channel of employment growth that dampens the response of these two components because real marginal cost rigidity induces small price adjustments on the job search gives rise to a strong propagation of monetary shocks that increases output persistence

good jobs versus bad jobs this article develops a model of noncompetitive labor markets in which high wage good and low wage bad jobs coexist minimum wages and unemployment benefits shift the composition of employment toward high wage jobs because the composition of jobs in the laissez faire equilibrium is inefficiently biased toward low wage jobs these labor market regulations increase average labor productivity and may improve welfare

a three state model of worker flows in general equilibrium abstract we develop a simple model featuring search frictions and a nondegenerate labor supply decision along the extensive margin the model is a standard version of the neoclassical growth model with indivisible labor and idiosyncratic productivity shocks and frictions characterized by employment loss and employment opportunity arrival shocks we argue that it is able to account for the key features of observed labor market flows for reasonable parameter values persistent idiosyncratic productivity shocks play a key role in allowing the model to match the persistence of the employment and out of the labor force states found in individual labor market histories

labor market dynamics with endogenous labor force participation and on the job search abstract studies that incorporate endogenous labor force participation and search and matching frictions in a real business cycle model report that the model generates counterfactual dynamics 1 labor force participation is very volatile and strongly procyclical 2 unemployment is weakly procyclical or acyclical 3 unemployment and vacancies are positively correlated to improve the model s performance i enrich the model with on the job search as a mechanism to dampen the movements of participation and keep vacancy creation high for longer periods the proposed model successfully generates weakly procyclical participation strongly countercyclical unemployment and the beveridge curve the model also succeeds in matching the statistics for labor force participation and job to job flows

search frictions and labor market participation abstract cross country differences in labor market participation are often larger than differences in unemployment rates the same holds true across demographic groups within a given economy we argue that the interaction between labor force participation decisions and labor market frictions can help us understand these patterns this interaction highlights dynamic aspects of the participation decision in contrast to standard textbook treatments that emphasize static costs and benefits of participation we extend the standard labor market search problem to allow for a third state non participation and assumes that stochastic participation costs precipitate flows into and out of non participation we fully characterize the worker s decision problem and use numerical simulations to demonstrate how participation patterns vary with individual characteristics and with labor market conditions

equity index variance evidence from flexible parametric jump diffusion models this paper analyzes a wide range of flexible drift and diffusion specifications of stochastic volatility jump diffusion models for daily s p 500 index returns we find that model performance is driven almost exclusively by the specification of the diffusion component whereas the drift specifications is of second order importance further the variance dynamics of non affine models resemble popular non parametric high frequency estimates of variance and their outperformance is mainly accumulated during turbulent market regimes finally we show that jump diffusion models yield more reliable estimates for the expected return of variance swap contracts

profitable pricing when market segments overlap in this paper we analyze profitable pricing strategies when market segments overlap overlapping markets are segments that are not perfectly sealed and leakage between them can occur different consumers are assumed to incur possibly different transaction costs if they choose to purchase in the low price market a monopolist seller knows the distribution of transaction costs across consumers and must choose an optimal pricing strategy in particular the monopolist must decide whether to charge a single price or to price differentiate conditions are derived under which price differentiation will be the most profitable strategy when price differentiation is optimal the equilibrium amount of leakage is determined endogenously unlike the standard economics textbook model of price discrimination in which zero leakage is determined exogenously and is usually given as a necessary condition for price discrimination we show that zero leakage is not necessary for differential pricing to be optimal and that

building a composite help wanted index abstract this paper builds a measure of vacancy posting over 1951 2009 that captures the behavior of total print and online help wanted advertising and can be used for time series analysis of the us labor market

price competition in multimarket duopolies in this article we analyze the pricing strategies offirms that compete for the demand of an assortment of goods in a complete information static framework in particular we model the competition between two symmetric firms in a market that consists of two types of consumers each of which may buy one unit of both goods sold by the two firms we show that all nash equilibria are such that neither firm charges the same price for both goods interestingly under certain conditions thefirms jointly price discriminate between the two types of consumers and may even achieve the same level of profits as if they maximized joint profits for another set of conditions the unique equilibrium is such that the price for one of the goods and the price for the bundle are the same as the price of the good in a standard hotelling model with one good finally we show that if these equilibria exist both firms prefer to sell both goods rather than specialize in either one of them these results are a direct consequence of the interplay between the multimarket rivalry and the existence of more than one market segment as modelled in this article

optimal pricing strategies for new products in dynamic oligopolies this paper deals with the determination of optimal pricing policies for firms in oligopolistic markets the problem is studied as a differential game and optimal pricing policies are established as nash open loop controls cost learning effects are assumed such that unit costs are decreasing with cumulative output discounting of future profits is also taken into consideration initially the problem is addressed in a general framework and we proceed to study some specific cases that are related to models presented in recent literature three basic classes of sales dynamics are analyzed competition with price effects only competition with price as well as adoption effects and competition with adoption effects only in some cases it turns out that results which hold for the monopoly case carry over to the multi firm case in the sense that the qualitative structure of optimal pricing strategies is the same in the monopoly and the oligopoly cases however due to competitive interdependencies differences certainly exist in the levels as well as the rates of change of optimal prices

labor market participation unemployment and monetary policy models of unemployment and monetary policy usually assume constant participation incorporating a participation decision into a standard new keynesian model with matching frictions we show that market tightness becomes endogenously more volatile because both the opportunity cost of home production and the reservation wage vary with participation the model can simultaneously explain the low volatility of participation the high volatility of unemployment and a procyclical workers outside option of working a policy of strict inflation targeting is close to optimal and increasing the response of the interest rate to inflation does not have a large impact on the volatility of unemployment because of the endogenous response of participation

vancouver s gasoline price wars an empirical exercise in uncovering supergame strategies this paper uses a unique data set to determine which dynamic model of tacit collusion best describes behaviour in a particular industry the area investigated is a region of the vancouver british columbia retail gasoline market players are service station managers who compete daily firms choose price in each period using strategies that depend on prices chosen in the previous period periodically unanticipated demand shocks precipitate price wars when shocks occur the firms in the market must determine the new demand conditions and adjust their strategies from an econometric point of view slopes of intertemporal reaction functions are latent variables the resulting system of equations with time varying parameters is estimated via the kalman filter different repeated game oligopoly models correspond to different transition matrices for the latent variables the models can thus be assessed in terms of their power to explain firm behaviour in this market

incorporating consumer price expectations in diffusion models in this paper the sensitivity of the optimal price path of a new durable product to the price expectations of consumers is examined consumers enter the market every period in a diffusion type framework during the initial periods more consumers enter the market due to word of mouth influence but in the latter periods saturation effects set in the entering set of cohorts form expectations about future prices and in a stable equilibrium these expectations are fulfilled it is shown that the price path is cyclical with the following properties at the beginning of the cycle the price is at its highest level it falls monotonically over time reaching a low price at the end of the cycle equal to the reservation price of the consumers willing to pay less the cycle lengths are not equal the sensitivity of the optimal price path to model parameters is explored through a numerical procedure

business cycles and labor market search the quantitative implications of labor market search for economic fluctuations are evaluated in the context of a real business cycle model incorporating labor market search into the model is found to improve its empirical performance along several dimensions in particular hours now fluctuate substantially more than wages and the contemporaneous correlation between hours and productivity falls in addition the model replicates the observation that output growth displays positive autocorrelation at short horizons overall the empirical results suggest that the labor market search environment embodies a quantitatively important propagation mechanism copyright 1996 by american economic association

the establishment level behavior of vacancies and hiring this paper is the first to study vacancies hires and vacancy yields at the establishment level in the job openings and labor turnover survey a large sample of u s employers to interpret the data we develop a simple model that identifies the flow of new vacancies and the job filling rate for vacant positions the job filling rate moves counter to aggregate employment but rises steeply with employer growth rates in the cross section it falls with employer size rises with worker turnover rates and varies by a factor of four across major industry groups we also develop evidence that the employer level hiring technology exhibits constant returns and that at the employer level and that employers rely heavily on other instruments in addition to vacancies as they vary hires we also develop evidence that effective recruiting intensity per vacancy varies over time accounting for about 41 of movements in aggregate hires in the 2007 to 2009 period our evidence and analysis provide useful inputs for assessing developing and calibrating theoretical models of search matching and hiring in the labor market

chapter 11 pricing models in marketing publisher summary this chapter brings together a set of diverse efforts in the recent literature on the modeling of price decisions and related questions in marketing there has been an impressive growth in the array of topics investigated in the literature various trends in the development of pricing models are evident from the foregoing review first one trend has been to develop theoretical models to describe observed pricing strategies in the marketplace and to derive conditions under which certain strategies are optimal this trend is clearly evident when one considers the area of dynamic pricing models another trend is an attempt to develop pricing models in which certain aspects of consumer behavior e g asymmetric response to price increases versus price decreases are incorporated this development is quite recent and does offer a large potential a third dominant direction is the use of game theoretic models for developing equilibrium pricing strategies

on the cyclical behavior of employment unemployment and labor force participation abstract in this paper i evaluate to what extent a real business cycle rbc model that incorporates search and home production decisions can simultaneously account for the observed behavior of employment unemployment and out of the labor force this contrasts with the previous rbc literature which analyzed employment or hours fluctuations either by lumping together unemployment and out of the labor force into a single non employment state or by assuming a fixed labor force once the three employment states are explicitly introduced i find that the rbc model generates highly counterfactual labor market dynamics

new product pricing in quality sensitive markets this paper considers the problem of pricing a new product in a market having competing products of different qualities and market penetration levels as measured by the cumulative number of units sold each customer type selects his optimal product based on maximizing consumer surplus pricing policies for a new product are determined for the seller based on cumulative profit maximization without discounting an example is solved in detail for two demand function forms

anticipated growth and business cycles in matching models in a business cycle model that incorporates a standard matching framework employment increases in response to news shocks even though the wealth effect associated with the increase in expected productivity reduces labor force participation the reason is that the matching friction induces entrepreneurs to increase investment in new projects and vacancies early if there is underinvestment in new projects in the competitive equilibrium then the efficiency gains associated with an increase in employment make it possible that consumption employment output as well as the investment in new and existing projects jointly increase long before the actual increase in productivity materializes if there is no underinvestment then investment in existing projects decreases but total investment consumption employment and output still jointly increase

the effect of plausible and exaggerated reference prices on consumer perceptions and price search this article examines whether advertisers regular price claims affect consumer perceptions and price search behavior experiments involving simulated shopping via personal computers indicate that compared to an ad with no reference price an ad with a plausible reference price raised subjects estimates of the advertiser s regular price and the perceived offer value an exaggerated reference price had generally the same positive effects on perception as a plausible reference price even for the more skeptical subjects further when subjects were presented with an advertised sale price above the lowest expected price the exaggerated reference price increased the percentage of subjects who purchased the product from the advertiser without checking other stores prices

effect of product line pricing characteristics on product evaluations examining the issue of product line pricing from a behavioral perspective this article reports an investigation of the relationship between the price structure of a product line and consumers evaluations of a product model within the line a 2 2 4 factorial design utilizing multiple dependent variables was conducted and replicated to test hypotheses derived from behavioral research results indicate that while the price characteristics of a product line influence consumer evaluations of a product model within the line the price characteristics do not operate independently rather they interact further the research suggests that several dependent variables that are usually considered separately in price research are actually dimensions of similar constructs

monopolist pricing with dynamic demand and production cost this paper deals with pricing of a new product over time by a monopolist who maximizes the discounted profit stream the interdependency of cost and demand on cumulative production makes the problem inherently dynamic cost is assumed to be declining with cumulative production learning curve effect while demand is a function of price and cumulative sales representing word of mouth and saturation effects the paper addresses this problem in a general framework that includes several previous results as special cases and provides new insights in other situations while the learning curve and word of mouth effect cause prices to be lower than the price that maximizes immediate revenues the saturation factor has the opposite effect the price path over time is affected by these factors and the interest rate we characterize the price path under several different situations and interpret the results for policy guidelines