different paths to free trade the gains from regionalism we compare free trade reached through expanding regional trading blocs to free trade accomplished by multilateral negotiation with sunk costs the outcomes are different trade in an imperfectly competitive good flows disproportionately more between the original members of a regional agreement even after free trade is reached they secure a higher welfare level from regionalism than from free trade achieved multilaterally nonmembers however reach a lower welfare level a surprising result is that world welfare during free trade is greater when it is achieved by the regional path we conclude with some empirical evidence from the european union that is consistent with the model

the spatial impact of genetically modified crops abstract although genetically modified gm organisms have attracted a great deal of public attention analysis of their economic impacts has been less common it is perhaps spatial externalities where the divergence between efficient and unregulated outcomes is potentially largest because the presence of transgenic crops may eliminate or severely reduce the planting of organic varieties and other crops where some consumers have a preference for non gm crops this paper constructs a simple model of the possible spatial external effects of the introduction of transgenic varieties and considers some of the public policy options for regulating the divergence between market outcomes and the efficient allocation of resources to gm crops it is shown that co existence may be impossible without strong regulation on planting patterns

does exchange rate variability depress trade flows evidence from error correction models this paper examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of the g 7 countries in the context of a multivariate error correction model the error correction models do not show any sign of parameter instability the results indicate that the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative impact on the volume of exports in each of the g 7 countries assuming market participants are risk averse these results imply that exchange rate uncertainty causes them to reduce their activities change prices or shift sources of demand and supply in order to minimize their exposure to the effects of exchange rate volatility this in turn can change the distribution of output across many sectors in these countries it is quite possible that the surprisingly weak relationship between trade flows and exchange rate volatility reported in several previous studies are due to insufficient attention to the stochastic properties of the relevant time series copyright 1993 by mit press

sequential formation of coalitions in games with externalities and fixed payoff division this paper analyzes a sequential game of coalition formation when the division of the coalitional surplus is fixed and the payoffs are defined relative to the whole coalition structure gains from cooperation are represented by a valuation which maps coalition structures into payoff vectors i show that any core stable coalition structure can be attained as a stationary perfect equilibrium of the game if stationary perfect equilibria may fail to exist in general games a simple condition is provided under which they exist in symmetric games furthermore symmetric stationary perfect equilibria of symmetric games generate a coalition structure which is generically unique up to a permutation of the players a general method for the characterization of equilibria in symmetric games is proposed and applied to the formation of cartels in oligopolies and coalitions in symmetric majority games journal of economic literatureclassification numbers c78 c71 1996 academic press inc

a welfare decomposition in quasi linear economies abstract we propose a decomposition of social welfare when consumers have quasi linear utility functions under certain conditions satisfied in many models of imperfect competition our decomposition is useful especially when we assess the impact of trade liberalization on individual countries

exporting europe s trade policy there are three well known observations about the current regional trade policy of europe the first one is the central role played by the european union in the worldwide spreading of regional agreements the second is the new policy of signing bilateral deep regional trade agreements the third is the growing demand for harmonisation of international and domestic trade regulations we show that the combination of these three trends results in europe increasingly weighing on the policy decisions of its trade partners in particular with regard to their trade policies the european hegemonic influence which can be viewed as europe exporting its policy models is extending to all partners in preferential trade agreements not only the accession candidates it has two main broad manifestations a prescriptive approach to push bilateral partners into regional agreements among themselves and a tendency to diffuse european rules in its bilateral agreements with its partners we review the various provisions of the agreements through which this influence operates although this policy can be viewed as desirable in some instances it also generates actual and potential future costs for developing countries as well as posing non trivial dangers to the process of multilateral liberalisation and to the building of appropriate policies for the partner countries

some welfare effects of sequential customs union formation this paper deals with the effects on world welfare of sequential customs union formation a computational model of customs union formation is developed and simulated under a variety of assumptions these assumptions concern various characteristics of the world the pattern of customs union formation and gatt restrictions on common external tariffs the results show that unrestricted customs union formation is likely to result in successive deterioration of world welfare despite gains for the member countries collectively an examination of the current gatt guidelines however suggests that if they were vigorously enforced world welfare would rise with customs union formation

a theory of endogenous coalition structures consider an environment with widespread externalities and suppose that bind ing agreements can be written we study coalition formation in such a setting our analysis proceeds by defining on a partition function an extensive form bargaining game we establish the existence of a stationary subgame perfect equilibrium for such a game our main results are concerned with the characterization of equilib rium coalition structures we develop an algorithm that generates under certain conditions an equilibrium coalition structure our characterization results are especially sharp for symmetric partition functions in particular we provide a uniqueness theorem and apply our results to a cournot oligopoly journal of economic literature classification numbers c71 c72 c78 d62 q 1999 academic press

innovation and trade with endogenous market failure the case of genetically modified products a partial equilibrium two country model is developed to analyze implications from the introduction of genetically modified gm products in the model innovators hold proprietary rights farmers are competitive adopters some consumers deem gm food to be inferior in quality to traditional food and the mere introduction of gm crops affects the costs of non gm food because of costly identity preservation among the results derived it is shown that although gm innovations have the potential to improve efficiency some groups can be made worse off indeed it is even possible that the costs induced by gm innovations outweigh the efficiency gains

optimal tariff equilibria with customs unions the authors construct a model of customs unions in which countries charge optimal tariffs customs unions internalize the externality that exists whenever two countries import the same good also customs unions make several countries into one large unit with more market power big customs unions can improve their members welfare relative to the free trade the authors model of customs unions separates the effects of tariff reduction from the effects of policy coordination the movement from nash equilibrium to a free trade association improves global resource allocations moving from a free trade association to a full customs union has ambiguous resource allocation effects

bilateralism and free trade we study a setting with many countries in each country there are firms that can sell in the domestic as well as foreign markets countries can sign bilateral free trade agreements that lower import tariffs and thereby facilitate trade we allow a country to sign any number of bilateral free trade agreements a profile of free trade agreements defines the trading regime our principal finding is that in symmetric settings bilateralism is consistent with global free trade we also explore the effects of asymmetries across countries and political economy considerations on the incentives to form trade agreements

coexistence rules and regulations in the european union the institutional environment for planting gm crops in europe is heterogeneous poland wants to ban the planting of gm crops spanish farmers have been growing bt maize for several years 120 communities in belgium have declared themselves to be gmo free a local grain trader in germany has announced that it will pay the same price for bt and non bt maize luxemburg wants to fine farmers up to 750 000 for non compliance with coexistence rules and in poland a prison sentence of up to three years may be given farmers in upper austria must apply for authorization for each field intended to be planted with gm crops and farmers in denmark have to pay a levy of 100 dk per hectare of gm crops in 2003 the european commission stated that no form of agriculture be it conventional organic or agriculture using genetically modified organism gmos should be excluded in the european union but simultaneously decided to follow the principle of subsidiary that measures for coexistence should be developed and implemented by the member states cec 2003a p 1 since then some member states have developed and others are still developing a diversity of coexistence measures that may have a profound impact on the adoption rate of gm crops against this background we ask the following question how will the different coexistence policies among eu member states affect the adoption of gm crops

genetically modified crops and product differentiation trade and welfare effects in the soybean complex a partial equilibrium four region world trade model for the soybean complex is developed in which roundup ready rr products are weakly inferior substitutes to conventional ones rr seeds are priced at a premium and costly segregation is necessary to separate conventional and biotech products solution of the calibrated model illustrates how incomplete adoption of rr technology arises in equilibrium the united states argentina brazil and the rest of the world row all gain from the introduction of rr soybeans although some groups may lose the impacts of rr production or import bans by the row or brazil are analyzed u s price support helps u s farmers despite hurting the united states and has the potential to improve world efficiency

some neglected social costs of government spending in farm programs economic welfare analyses of farm programs typically assume that the direct social opportunity cost of subsidy payments is one dollar per dollar of government spending recent literature suggests that the marginal opportunity cost of a dollar of u s federal government spending is more likely to be in the range of 1 20 to 1 50 this implies that the net social costs of farm programs that involve government spending are significantly greater than the typical estimates in addition the normative efficiency ranking of alternative policies is sensitive to the marginal opportunity cost of government spending

hub and spoke free trade areas theory and evidence from israel we study how the sequential formation of free trade areas affects trade flows between member countries in a three country three good model of comparative advantage if two countries have an fta and both sign a similar agreement with the third trade between the two decreases however if only one of them signs an additional fta a hub and spoke pattern arises and trade between the initial members increases israel s experience lends strong support to our model trade between israel and the eu subject to an fta since 1975 increased by an additional 29 after the introduction of the us israel fta in 1985 on etudie comment la formation sequentielle de zones de libre echange affecte les flux commerciaux entre les pays membres dans un modele d avantage comparatif avec trois pays et trois biens si deux pays ont un accord de libre echange et qu ils signent tous deux un accord similaire avec un tiers pays le commerce entre les deux pays originaux decroit cependant si seulement un des deux pays originaux signe un accord avec le troisieme un reseau en etoile emerge et le commerce entre les deux payx d origine s accroit l experience d israel donne un fort support au modele le commerce entre israel et l union europeenne sujet a un accord de libre echange depuis 1975 s est accru de 29 apres l introduction de l accord de libre echange entre israel et les etats unis en 1985

adoption of agricultural innovations in developing countries a survey this paper reviews various studies which have provided a description and possible explanation to patterns of innovation adoption in the agricultural sector the survey points out that the tendency of many studies to consider innovation adoption in dichotomous terms adoption nonadoption may not be appropriate in many cases where the actual decisions are defined over a more continuous range more attention needs to be given to the socio cultural and institutional environment in area studies so that their interrelation with economic factors affecting adoption can be inferred the presence of several interrelated innovations is another aspect that needs to be considered more carefully in future research since a number of simultaneous decisions may be involved furthermore the possibility of regular sequential patterns in adopting components of a new technological package should be specifically addressed in future studies finally the impact of differential adoption rates on land holding distribution merits attention in future research

key sectors in input output production networks an application to brexit this paper presents the first detailed and holistic description of the european production network epn and provides different rankings of the most systemically important industries involved in brexit employing techniques of complex networks analysis and input output traditional tools the study identifies those industries that are key in the complex structure of the uk eu trade relationships the method developed would help policy makers to better understand which tariff would have a more distortive impact which export sector should be pushed which imports should be safeguarded such information may have foremost importance in the negotiations between the uk and eu our findings suggest that brexit would be not just a problem for the uk as it is often portrayed but any form of brexit could propagate affecting the global production system further by inspecting industries centrality within the epn we find that the uk could be less exposed to trade barriers than eu countries

regulatory actions under adjustment costs and the resolution of scientific uncertainty food system regulators often decide whether to ban existing practices or approve new technologies without conclusive scientific evidence on possible damage and knowing that resolution is likely in the future in a model with three decision points and stochastic resolution of uncertainty we study interactions between expected losses due to regulation and information availability when a regulator is deciding on an early reversible ban and on a later reversible ban adjustment costs create inertia concerning intermediate signals such that earlier decisions are not overturned and also a bias against imposing an early ban the prospect of more later stage information can increase or decrease the incentive to ban early but research decreases the incentive to ban early

overlapping free trade agreements and international trade a network approach in our work we have analysed the effect of the hub and spoke nature of free trade agreements ftas on trade contrary to previous analyses we have considered the effects of the country s position in the fta network on the bilateral trade of the hub country we have conducted an in depth analysis of the global network of ftas focusing particularly on its evolution in the last 15 years we have utilised a panel data set covering the period 1960 2010 to investigate the effects of the hub and spoke on trade our results show that the countries that are more connected to ftas export more than those that are less involved although not all the partner countries you can connect with are the same an increase in the number of spokes that have no link between them has on average a negative effect on the trade of the hub which indicates that signing ftas with every country is not the optimal strategy for increasing trade however if we consider the way new ftas change the relative position of a country we can see that if new ftas make the country more central or less constrained in the network these new agreements have a strongly positive and significant pro trade effect

what s the point of reciprocal trade negotiations exports imports and gains from trade this paper explains why trade policy makers may prefer reciprocal trade negotiations rtn to unilateral tariff reductions utr for economic reasons it answers puzzles like why wto reciprocity and strengthens the unnecessarily weak case made for the wto by those who downplay or dismiss benefits from foreign tariff reductions ftr rtn is superior to utr because it provides economic benefits that utr cannot namely ftr benefits which are clearer than potentially important utr benefits whereas each policy offers efficiency gains any terms of trade effect of utr generally detracts from these gains while any terms of trade effect of ftr is typically beneficial especially for a small price taking country with this benefit augmenting ftr s efficiency gains moreover benefits from reductions in foreign barriers may come from several sources they are not solely the result of terms of trade improvement or economies of scale the two benefits already noted in the literature though often dismissed for example with foreign ntb elimination possible home benefits are shown even with rising costs and terms of trade deterioration rtn is also superior to utr because by eliminating protection in either ntb or tariff form rtn provides an escape from not only a terms of trade prisoners dilemma but many other previously unrecognised prisoners dilemmas including one in international rent transfers and several others with no economies of scale or terms of trade motivation of course if superior rtn is not an option utr may well be desirable if reciprocity is an option but only in a narrower cu or fta form such reciprocity may still be superior to utr or it may be inferior theory cannot unambiguously rank these

free trade agreements for better or worse this paper cites reasons why regional free trade agreements fta s may be better than previously recognized when they are formed or expand as in nafta and why they may be worse when they multiply as is now common just about everywhere else if this argument stands it implies a fundamental reevaluation of fta s and their design

singapore and the new regionalism bilateral trade linkages with japan and the us free trade areas ftas have recently become an integral part of singapore trade policy this paper discusses the reasons behind singapore s recent embracement of new regionalism with particular reference to the proposals to form ftas with japan and the us the paper goes on to examine various aspects of singapore s trade linkages with the two economic superpowers in some detail popular discussion of ftas gives one the appearance that such a trade policy is entirely benign the paper sounds a cautionary note highlighting some reasons to be concerned with singapore s recent embracement of the new regionalism

reciprocated unilateralism in trade policy abstract using the menu auction approach to endogenous determination of tariffs and allowing additionally for lobby formation itself to be endogenous this paper analyzes the impact of unilateral trade liberalization by one country on its partner s trade policies we find that such unilateral liberalization may induce reciprocal tariff reductions by the partner country intuitively unilateral liberalization by one country has the effect of increasing the incentives for the export lobby in the partner country to form and to lobby effectively against the import competing lobby there for lower protection

proliferating regional trade arrangements why and whither this paper investigates why regional trade arrangements rtas are proliferating extensively and how the effects of multiple rtas by interacting with each other evolve over time our empirical analysis based on an extended gravity model utilising a large panel dataset of 175 countries from 1948 to 1999 shows that rtas on average increase global trade by raising intra bloc trade without damaging extra bloc trade the net trade effects however heavily depend on the types of rta strategic evolution over time which we categorise as expansionary rtas duplicate rtas or overlapping rtas we find that countries excluded from an rta can benefit more from duplicating a separate rta than from joining an existing rta this result explains why the number of bilateral trade blocs rather than the membership size of existing rtas is currently exploding we also find that the net trade creating effects of rtas are substantially lower for countries participating in overlapping rtas this result suggests that it is less likely that the currently proliferating rtas will completely merge and lead the world economy to global free trade our empirical results are robust to controlling for the characteristics of countries that may influence the impact of rtas

rent destruction and the political viability of free trade agreements this paper studies the political viability of free trade agreements ftas the key element of the analysis is the rent destruction that these arrangements induce by eliminating intrabloc trade barriers an fta lowers the incentives of import competing industries to lobby for higher external tariffs thereby inducing a reduction of the rents created in the lobbying process using a conventional competitive model i show that the prospect of rent destruction can critically undermine and in some cases rule out entirely the political viability of welfarereducing ftas this result contrasts sharply with findings from the earlier regionalism literature

trade factor prices and the gains from trade with increasing returns to scale existing analyses seem to suggest that national increasing returns to scale are not a very useful tool for analysing trade owing to problems such as multiple equilibria and the tendency towards complete specialization the purpose of this paper is to construct a model in which there are in fact determinant relationships among country size the direction of trade the gains from trade and international factor price differences in the model differences in country size determine the direction of trade which in turn determines factor price differences and limits the possible distribution of the gains from trade commerce international prix des facteurs de production et les gains de l change dans un contexte de rendements croissants a l echelle les analyses conventionnelles semblent suggerer que les rendements croissants h l 6chelle au niveau national ne constituent pas une avenue prometteuse dans l analyse du commerce international parce que de tels rendements creent une presomption en faveur de la specialisation complete et conduisent a des situations d 6quilibres multiples le but de ce m6moire est de construire un mod le dans lequel il existe des rapports determinants entre la dimension du pays la direction des 6changes les gains de l echange et les differentiels internationaux entre les prix des facteurs de production dans ce mod le les differences entre les pays en termes de dimension d6terminent la direction du commerce international laquelle d6termine le differentiel entre les prix des facteurs de production et limite l eventail des r6partitions possibles des gains de l echange

why should trade negotiators negotiate about in recent years there have been growing demands to make trade liberalization contingent on adoption of common labor and environmental standards the straightforward economic answer is that this makes little sense neither the gains from trade nor the gains from appropriate regulation are compromised if other countries impose standards that are weaker than your own it is possible to offer second bet economic rationales for harmonization but these are empirically unconvincing the only serious argument in favor or regulation is political that regulation which is in the national interest may not be politically feasible unless other countries do the same

the effects of imperfect competition on the size and distribution of research benefits studies of agricultural research benefits usually assume perfectly competitive markets studies that have allowed for market power of agribusiness firms have generally assumed unrealistic pure monopsony or monopoly behavior this paper allows for processing firms to exhibit a range of degrees of oligopsony power in buying raw farm products and oligopoly power in selling processed farm products the results indicate that different types of research induced technical change can exacerbate or ameliorate distortions from the exercise of market power by agribusiness firms which affects the size and especially the distribution of research benefits

small hubs large spokes and overlapping free trade agreements the proliferation of overlapping free trade agreements fta in recent years has led to pair wise hub and spokes has throughout the world being avid subscribers to ftas many countries in the asia pacific region including the united states japan singapore south korea thailand and australia have become trade hubs to their partners who are in turn relegated to spoke status in this paper we question whether being a hub is welfare optimal for a small and open economy such as singapore compared to membership in a single bilateral fta or a multi member free trade zone within this context we use a computable general equilibrium model to examine the welfare implications of the triangular trade relationship of the united states singapore and japan this is facilitated by the japan singapore economic partnership agreement the usa singapore free trade agreement and a hypothetical usa japan economic partnership agreement the analysis is extended to incorporate super hub effects that is the spoke countries could be trade hubs in other has systems our experiment reveals that hub status generates positive welfare gain and is the highest singapore can get from the trade configurations considered meanwhile japan loses more than the usa when both are relegated to spoke status these findings prove to be robust under different market structures and production technologies deeper economic integration super hub effects as well as uncertainty in the key model parameters and the extent of trade liberalisation shocks

multilateral tariff cooperation during the formation of free trade areas we consider the impact of the formation of free trade agreements on multilateral tariff cooperation we assume that countries are limited to selfenforcing multilateral arrangements that balance the gains from deviating against the costs of an ensuing trade war we find that the emergence of free trade areas will be accompanied by a temporary retreat from liberal multilateral trade policies as the initial balance supporting multilateral cooperation is upset eventually however as the full impact of the emerging free trade agreement on multilateral trade patterns is felt this initial balance tends to reemerge and liberal multilateral trade policies can be restored

why trade liberalisation is good for growth there are three titles that might have been assigned for this paper 1 why is growth so rapid with outer oriented trade strategies 2 do countries with outer oriented trade strategies grow faster and 3 the one actually assigned they are not the same of the three the first is probably the most difficult to answer the second is a factual question and the empirical demonstration is straightforward sachs and warner 1995 the third by focussing on trade liberalisation implies that developing countries have highly restrictive trade regimes and thus asks if a move away from those regimes is good for growth it is far easier to show why especially over time liberalising a restrictive trade regime is conducive to more rapid growth than it is to show why outer oriented trade strategies have been so highly successful trade strategies and development strategies are closely related and it is useful to start by defining a few terms an import substitution is industrialisation strategy was adopted by most developing countries in the years following the second world war in most cases those countries were then predominantly agricultural and exporters of primary commodities the belief then was that rapid industrialisation was the essential if not the sole feature of economic growth and that only by domestically producing goods then imported could developing countries industrialise 1 under is it was intended to provide protection to new industries during their developmental period until they could compete with their counterparts in industrialised countries in practice the is strategy pulled most new resources into import competing activites with a number of negative consequences discussed later and one result was that export earnings grew less rapidly than the demand for foreign exchange and usually less rapidly even than real gdp an almost universal policy response was then to impose restrictive import licensing in response to foreign exchange shortage the stated reasons for this were the need to conserve scarce foreign exchange for essential developmental needs the outcome was of course a restrictive trade regime for reasons to be discussed below as is strategies continued trade regimes increased in restrictiveness and growth slowed hence to discuss trade liberalisation is to address the removal or at least reduction of incentives for is industrialisation and because again to be discussed below growth spurred under an is industrialisation strategy slows

multilateral trade negotiations bilateral opportunism and the rules of gatt wto abstract trade negotiations occur through time and between the governments of many countries an important issue is thus whether the value of concessions that a government wins in a current negotiation may be eroded in a future bilateral negotiation to which it is not party we identify rules of negotiation that serve to protect the welfare of governments that are not participating in the bilateral negotiation our main finding is that the two central principles of gatt wto nondiscrimination mfn and reciprocity preserve the welfare of nonparticipating governments and therefore offer a first line of defense against bilateral opportunism

on the proportionality of eu spatial ex ante coexistence regulations a comment abstract in their recent article in this journal demont et al 2009 discuss the effects of alternative spatial ex ante coexistence regulations seacers in the context of the eu regulatory framework we retain from demont et al 2009 that small pollen barriers should be considered as a possible regulatory option in all identifiable situations in which they are as effective as large isolation distances this idea is in accordance with the proportionality principle of the 2003 ec recommendation but further analysis of how consumer choice and consumer welfare are affected should be conducted before supporting the idea that seacers should be flexible that is that gmo farmers should always have the option of paying their non gmo neighbours to implement the seacers in their own fields we reject the authors argument that pollen barriers are necessarily more easily negotiable among neighbours more flexible than are isolation distances we contest the relation of proportionality to the size of market signals for ip products we contest the idea of shifting coexistence regulation from ex ante to ex post we believe that any economic analysis of coexistence measures should include their welfare effects on consumers as well as on producers

the nature of the farm abstract using a model based on a trade off between moral hazard incentives and gains from specialization this paper explains why farming has generally not converted from small family based firms into large factory style corporate firms nature is both seasonal and random and the interplay of these qualities generates moral hazard limits the gains from specialization and causes timing problems between stages of production by identifying conditions in which these forces vary we derive testable predictions about the choice of organization and the extent of farm integration to test these predictions we study the historical development of several agricultural industries and analyze data from a sample of over 1 000 farms in british columbia and louisiana in general seasonality and randomness so limit the benefits of specialization that family farms are optimal but when farmers are successful in mitigating the effects of seasonality and random shocks to output farm organizations gravitate toward fa

ex post liability for harm vs ex ante safety regulation substitutes or complements this paper concerns the regulation of hazardous economic activities economists have generally viewed ex ante regulations safety standards pigouvian fees that regulate an activity before an accident occurs as substitutes for ex post policies exposure to tort liability for correcting extemalities this paper shows that where there is uncertainty there are inefficiencies associated with the exclusive use of negligence liability and that ex ante regulation can correct the inefficiencies in such a case it is efficient to set the safety standard below the level of precaution that would be called for if the standard were used alone jel 619

a theory of trade policy leadership abstract this paper constructs a two country model of bilateral trade negotiations in the presence of political uncertainty to demonstrate that unilateral trade liberalization may be an optimal policy for a large country the political uncertainty is due to producer opposition to trade agreement ratification in the foreign country unilateral liberalization by the home country has a salutary effect on negotiations because it mitigates the pain of potential ratification failure on the foreign country it also promotes foreign ratification because it effectively punishes foreign import competing producers for lobbying against an agreement these benefits are shown to outweigh up to a point the terms of trade cost that the home country must suffer when it actually liberalizes unilaterally in equilibrium therefore we see a pattern in which the home country unilaterally liberalizes for several periods until ratification in the foreign country succeeds at which point foreign country finally reciprocates we also demonstrate that contrary to the standard optimal tariff result there may be an inverse relationship between the home country s monopoly power and its optimal unilateral tariff

estimating the gravity model without gravity using panel data this article examines the effects of zero trade on the estimation of the gravity model using both simulated and real data with a panel structure which is different from the more conventional cross sectional structure we begin by showing that the usual log linear estimation method can result in highly deceptive inference when some observations are zero as an alternative approach we suggest using the poisson fixed effects estimator this approach eliminates the problems of zero trade controls for heterogeneity across countries and is shown to perform well in small samples

multilateralism and the endogenous formation of preferential trade agreements abstract this paper examines the interaction between preferential trade agreements ptas and multilateral tariff reduction in a model of imperfect competition a growing literature finds that the formation of ptas alters the incentives for and the sustainability of multilateral tariff reduction we show that the causation is not one sided multilateral tariff reduction also affects the formation of ptas specifically tariff reduction enhances the incentives to form a pta and increases the likelihood that it is self enforcing thus each round of multilateral tariff reduction should lead to a new wave of ptas this may help to explain the current trend towards regionalism

measuring and analysing the effects of short term volatility in real exchange rates this paper examines short term volatility in the real effective exchange rates of industrial countries and its impact on their imports it yields three conclusions first volatility has not diminished as markets have gained experience with floating exchange rates the trend appears to be in the opposite direction for some countries second exposure to short term volatility has differed among countries japan and sweden have experienced much more than most other industrial countries third volatility appears to depress the volume of international trade this third finding is consistent with results reported by cushman and by akhtar and hilton and challenges earlier findings by hooper and kohlhagen

real exchange rate volatility and the us bilateral trade a var approach this paper uses var models to investigate the impact of real exchange rate volatility on u s bilateral imports from the united kingdom france germany japan and canada the var systems include u s and foreign macro variables and are estimated separately for each country the major results suggest that the effect of volatility on imports is weak although permanent shocks to volatility do have a negative impact on this measure of trade and those effects are relatively more important over the flexible rate period copyright 1989 by mit press

are women more predictable than men during the ncaa basketball tournaments from 2002 to 2005 men s games produced 27 more upsets than women s games to test whether these unpredictable results were due to gender differences we conduct logit analysis to explain upsets by gender and other potentially significant variables including differences in competing teams i rpi scores ii percentage of freshmen iii percentage of seniors iv top scorer s total points and v top three scorers total points these analyses suggest that gender plays a significant role in explaining predictability

would international currency taxation and currency stabilisation in developing countries completely flexible exchange rates may be excessively volatile with the implied currency misalignments leading to real inefficiencies in resource allocation and detrimental effects on economic growth this paper analyses whether international currency taxation would be effective in calming exchange rate volatility and avoiding currency crises within the context of a simple model of exchange rate determination it is found that the effects of a tax on foreign exchange volatility depend on the nature of speculation and whether the focus is on capital inflows or outflows

coexistence of gm and non gm crops with endogenously determined separation the possibility that genetically modified gm crops may contaminate non gm crops through pollen mediated gene flow presents a challenge to coexistence of gm agriculture with conventional and organic farming systems in this paper an analytical model of coexistence is developed that allows for endogenous derivation of efficient widths and allocation of pollen barriers to limit contamination of non gm crops to reflect the uncertainty that surrounds pollen dispersal mechanisms the model contains a stochastic contamination function and safety rule decision mechanism constraining the level of contamination to remain below a tolerated adventitious presence with a given probability two policies are considered and their performance is tested the tolerance level of adventitious presence and the allocation of responsibility for implementing coexistence measures to either gm or non gm farmers the relative size of gm rents the value of productivity gains and the non pecuniary benefits from gm crops rents for identity preserved non gm crops price premiums realised over the gm crop price characteristics of farms and possible variation in agricultural landscapes are also taken into account the findings indicate that conventional adventitious presence tolerances can be met without ex ante mandating large widths of pollen barriers at the policy level the findings of this paper are relevant for setting region specific pollen barriers widths and or for establishing institutions that facilitate cooperative coexistence

public investment and real price supports abstract the social rate of return to public investment in industries with fixed real price supports is studied using a simple general equilibrium model fixed real price supports are shown to enhance the likelihood of immiserizing growth due to capital accumulation or technological innovation in the supported sector general conditions under which an intervention price will induce a negative social rate of return to public investment are derived

the size of trading blocs market power and world welfare effects abstract we construct an n country n commodity trade model to analyze the implications of bloc size for nash equilibrium tariffs and welfare the relationship between the absolute size of symmetric trading blocs and their market power is ambiguous and we illustrate how this relationship varies with model parameters in contrast sufficiently large increases in the relative size of a bloc enhance its relative market power and cause the welfare of its country members to rise above the free trade level we establish the existence of an optimal bloc size and study the dependence of optimal size on the parameters of the model

exchange rates and traded goods prices abstract this paper presents a partial equilibrium model of the determination of domestic and export prices by a monopolistic competitive firm the model stresses the role of exchange rate uncertainty and expectations the most important result of the analysis is that the stochastic properties of deviations from the law of one price are crucially affected by the currency of denomination of export prices using data on domestic and dollar export prices of japanese goods i find that deviations from the law of one price are due to exchange rate surprises but also to price staggering and ex ante price discrimination

coexistence regulations and agriculture production a case study of five bt maize producers in portugal abstract in 1998 genetically modified gm maize entered european agriculture after the publication of the european commission s guidelines on coexistence in 2003 portugal developed ex ante regulatory and ex post tort liability rules on the coexistence of gm and non gm maize crops there is an on going debate on the extent to which the coexistence policies affect adoption in this study we measure the costs and benefits of planting gm maize as a member of a cooperative all group members achieved a higher gross margin by planting gm maize rather than non gm maize on their farms group members did not face any ex post liability costs and had zero ex ante regulatory costs as they could easily internalize the ex ante coexistence regulations the results show that coexistence regulations such as informing neighbors or keeping minimum distances do not necessarily lead to increased production costs provided they are flexible enough

is unilateral tariff reduction preferable to a customs union the curious case of the missing foreign tariffs during the past decade and a half an important part of the literature on customs unions has dealt with the question of whether a country might obtain the gains it would achieve from a customs union cu in an alternative way by a unilateral tariff reduction utr utr may involve a partial reduction in tariffs or a reduction all the way to zero a widely accepted conclusion see eitan berglas p 329 c a cooper and b f massell 1965b pp 745 47 roma dauphin ch 2 harry johnson p 280 melvyn krauss pp 417 19 and peter robson is that utr does indeed hold out the prospect for all the gains from a cuwithout the disadvantagesif two important simplifying assumptions are made namely that we ignore economies of scale and the effects of a customs union on the terms of trade 2 in the words of berglas it is important to note that if a preferential trade agreement does not affect the terms of trade then it does not allow for any mutually beneficial policy opportunities which are not open to each of the member countries separately through utr p 329 if this conclusion is correct it is very important in that it undercuts the earlier literature on customs unions the question asked by jacob viner in his pioneering work whether a cu represents a net gain or a net loss in economic efficiencybecomes unimportant except insofar as a customs union is based on terms of trade effects3 or economies of scale 4 since a cu can be summarily rejected in favor of utr the utr case would mean that for economists the puzzle is not to identify the efficiency gains or losses from a cu but rather to explain why countries form customs unions in the first place berglas p 329 cooper and massell 1965b p 247 and johnson p 270 indeed in his survey of cu theory krauss identifies the problem raised by cooper and massellof why countries form customs unionsas the theoretical issue of the past decade the 1960 s just as in the prior one the major issue as explicitly defined by jacob viner 1950 was whether a customs union represented a movement towards freer trade or greater protection p 413 the typical reply to the cooper massell question is countries tend to form a cu for noneconomic reasons berglas pp 329 30 5

multilateral tariff cooperation during the formation of customs unions abstract we study the implications of customs union formation for multilateral tariff cooperation we model cooperation in multilateral trade policy as self enforcing in that it involves balancing the current gains from deviating unilaterally from an agreed upon trade policy against the future losses from forfeiting the benefits of multilateral cooperation that such a unilateral defection would imply the early stages of the process of customs union formation are shown to alter this dynamic incentive constraint in a way that leads to a temporary honeymoon for liberal multilateral trade policies we find however that the harmony between customs unions and multilateral liberalization is temporary eventually as the full impact of the emerging customs union becomes felt a less favorable balance between current and future conditions re emerges and the liberal multilateral policies of the honeymoon phase cannot be sustained

a strategic model of social and economic networks we study the stability and efficiency of social and economic networks when self interested individuals can form or sever links first for two stylized models we characterize the stable and efficient networks there does not always exist a stable network that is efficient next we show that this tension persists generally to assure that there exists a stable network that is efficient one is forced to allocate resources to nodes that are not responsible for any of the production we characterize one such allocation rule the equal split rule and another rule that arises naturally from bargaining of the players

farsighted network formation this paper studies a model of dynamic network formation when individuals are farsighted players evaluate the desirability of a current move in terms of its consequences on the entire discounted stream of payoffs we define a concept of equilibrium which takes into account farsighted behavior of agents and allows for limited cooperation amongst agents we show that an equilibrium process of network formation exists we also show that there are valuation structures in which no equilibrium strategy profile can sustain efficient networks we then provide sufficient conditions under which the equilibrium process will yield efficient outcomes

consequences of a coexistence policy on the adoption of gmht crops in the european union this article examines the adoption of genetically modified herbicide tolerant gmht crops in the european union eu prior to its commercial release a set of potential drivers including the implementation of coexistence measures by farmers farmers own motivational factors e g economic environmental and technical factors and perceived social pressure to accept or reject adoption may influence european union farmers willingness to adopt gmht oilseed rape and gmht maize the analysis includes economic and sociological factors results show that coexistence measures may hamper gmht adoption in the eu

incomplete adoption of a superior innovation we consider a model in which an innovating monopolist of a technologically superior intermediate input must sell this product to final output producers prior research shows that with complete information the monopolist s optimal strategy will lead to complete adoption of this technologically superior innovation in this article we show that when the price of some competitively supplied input used in the final product market is endogenous and is altered by adoption of the innovation then the optimal pricing strategy of the monopolist may lead to incomplete innovation thus the standard result of complete adoption of the superior technology is partly attributable to the partial equilibrium nature of prior models

reversal of fortune immiserizing technical change in agriculture several recent studies have reported the possibility of immiserizing technical change in agriculture in these studies the interaction of government commodity policy and technical change has been shown potentially to lead to a loss of national welfare a negative rate of return to research the purpose of this paper is to tie these recent results to the earlier results of bhagwati and johnson on immiserizing growth technical change and to offer a more general condition for describing the impacts of distortions on the benefits from technical change

regionalism in a multilateral world recent regional initiatives have been addressed from a vinerian perspective of trade creation and trade diversion this is true of both policy oriented economists who tend to be critical of the initiatives and theorists who have added dynamic and gametheoretic elements to the vinerian structure this paper describes the stylized facts of much recent regional integration and develops an alternative model the analysis suggests that regional integration far from threatening multilateral liberalism may in fact be a direct consequence of the success of past multilateralism and an added guarantee for its survival

erratum to multilateral trade negotiations bilateral opportunism and the rules of gatt wto abstract trade negotiations occur through time and between the governments of many countries an important issue is thus whether the value of concessions that a government wins in a current negotiation may be eroded in a future bilateral negotiation to which it is not party we identify rules of negotiation that serve to protect the welfare of governments that are not participating in the bilateral negotiation our main finding is that the two central principles of gatt wto nondiscrimination mfn and reciprocity preserve the welfare of nonparticipating governments and therefore offer a first line of defense against bilateral opportunism

free trade networks abstract the paper examines the formation of free trade agreements ftas as a network formation game we consider an n country model in which possibly asymmetric countries trade differentiated industrial commodities we show that if all countries are symmetric the complete fta network is pairwise stable and it is the unique stable network if industrial commodities are not highly substitutable we also compare ftas and customs unions cus as to which of these two regimes facilitates global trade liberalization noticing that unlike cus each signatory of an fta can have another fta without consent of other member countries

effects of hub and spoke free trade agreements on trade a panel data analysis summary we use panel data consisting of 96 countries and covering the period 1960 2000 to investigate the effects of free trade agreements ftas and hub and spoke systems of fta on exports our empirical results imply an annual growth rate of 5 57 in exports and hence a doubling of exports after 12 4 years between fta partners non overlapping ftas account for 4 12 while hub and spoke ftas account for 1 45 of the estimated export growth rate this indicates that in addition to the direct trade liberalizing effect of ftas the hub and spoke nature of ftas has an additional positive effect on trade

on the proportionality of eu spatial ex ante coexistence regulations reply desquilbet and bullock 2010 criticize some aspects of our analysis of the european union s eu spatial ex ante coexistence regulations seacers of genetically modified gm and non gm crops presented in demont et al 2009 we argue that besides misinterpreting some of our original arguments the authors propose a policy analysis framework which is inconsistent with the main goal of the eu s seacers their example incorrectly suggests that seacers play an additional role of regulating non gm crop supply on the market this would be inefficient from a policy economics perspective especially in an open economy where global trade is taken into account therefore we argue that analyzing flexibility of seacers in a market framework could lead to erroneous conclusions and in that case a simple farm level analysis such as presented in demont et al 2009 is preferred