the limits of market oriented regulatory techniques the case of automotive fuel economy the search for more efficient market oriented regulatory techniques has produced significant recent advances in several areas among these would appear to be the corporate average fuel economy cafe approach to reducing gasoline consumption by the domestic automobile fleet the 1975 energy policy and conservation act required manufacturers to sell fleets with a sales weighted average of 18 miles per gallon in the 1978 model year 19 mpg in 1979 20 mpg in 1980 and 27 5 mpg in 1985 1 the standards for the four intervening years were subsequently set by the national highway traffic safety administration at 22 24 26 and 27 miles per gallon the advantages of the averaging approach over uniform vehicle standards or a gas guzzler tax are two fold first cafe permits each firm to increase its overall fuel efficiency in the cheapest manner since the costs of mileage improvements for different vehicles may be rather different 2 and second it permits the continuation of a diverse product mix to the consumer since a uniform standard would probably result in the demise of certain models these arguments for averaging are now so widely accepted that the principle is being proposed inter alia for automotive emissions standards as well that is instead of maximum allowable emissions for each and every model manufacturers could produce models with various levels of pollutants

do cigarette producers price discriminate by state an empirical analysis of local cigarette pricing and taxation abstract this study analyzes the interactive effects of oligopoly pricing state taxation and anti smoking regulations on retail cigarette prices by state using panel data for the 50 us states between 1960 and 1990 the results indicate that cigarette producers do price discriminate by state though the effect is not large relative to the final retail price there are two further results 1 state taxes are more than passed on a 1 cent state tax increase results in a price increase of 1 11 cents and 2 sellers offset state and local anti smoking laws with lower prices thereby blunting effects of the regulations

estimating dynamic demand for cigarettes using panel data the effects of bootlegging taxation and advertising reconsidered abstracct a dynamic demand for cigarette consumption is estimated using pooled data of 46 states over the period 1963 to 1980 a price elasticity of 0 2 and an insignificant income elasticity is found using pooled estimation techniques the bootlegging effect is modeled explicitly using neighboring price the effect is found to be significant two major policy issues are analyzed in light of these new estimates 1 cigarette taxation is found to be an effective tool for generating revenues even though there may be spillover effects to neighboring states where bootlegging is significant 2 the effects of the fairness doctrine act and the advertising ban on cigarette consumption are re examined we find mild support for the effectiveness of subsidized anti smoking messages in reducing cigarette consumption and no support for the thesis that the ban on advertising helps to increase per capita consumption

impacts of long range increases in the fuel economy cafe standard i introduction and background in 1975 the u s government enacted legislation regulating the fuel efficiency of new motor vehicles the apparent objective of this law is to reduce american dependence on foreign oil after large increases in the price of petroleum in the late 1990s and with continued conflict in the middle east corporate average fuel economy cafe standards once again became a topic of interest a number of proposals for changing the cafe standards were discussed in congress in early 2002 culminating in a defeat in the senate of an amendment that would have required a 50 increase in the relevant cafe standards in place of that increase the senate voted to require the executive branch to examine the impact of further increases in the cafe standard this work evaluates the long term economic implications of raising the standard by 3 0 miles per gallon mpg above current levels in industry parlance this approach is sometimes referred to as technology forcing i choose 3 0 mpg because it reflects the focus of a may 2001 report by the vice president s task force on energy policy and because it reflects several legislative proposals in congress 1 the long term refers to a length of time such that manufacturers can adjust vehicle technologies and powertrain designs to reduce the amount of fuel required to move a given amount of mass or to achieve a given amount of performance or acceleration per gallon of fuel consumed previous work on cafe standards such as kleit 1990 and thorpe 1997 focused on short term responses to higher cafe standards where technology forcing was not an option for manufacturers the analysis is conducted under two different scenarios the first scenario is that cafe standards are not binding in the current marketplace the second scenario takes account of the current impact of cafe standards and then analyzes the costs and benefits of increasing the standards the costs of cafe standards are broken down into two areas the changes in consumer and producer surplus and the increase in externalities caused by the increased driving that higher cafe standards induce the plan of this article is as follows section ii reviews the history of cafe standards and briefly discusses the rationale for the regulation section iii develops a model in which the current cafe standard is assumed to be nonbinding section iv provides estimates of the impacts for a long term 3 0 mpg cafe increase under the assumption that the current standard is not binding section v then revises the model to take into account the arguably more realistic assumption that the existing cafe standard was in fact binding it then reports estimates for a long term 3 0 mpg increase section vi provides a brief cost benefit analysis of cafe increases and section vii provides a summary and conclusion ii background on automobile fuel economy standards a brief history of the cafe program the cafe program as enacted in 1975 called for all manufacturers selling more than 10 000 autos per year in the united states to reach the mandated cafe levels cafe levels rose from 19 0 mpg in 1978 to 27 5 mpg in 1985 and later years a manufacturer s domestic and foreign cars are placed in separate cafe categories based on the domestic context of the vehicle if a car has over 75 american context it is considered domestic and placed in the domestic pool otherwise it is placed in the foreign car pool see kleit 1990 for a discussion light trucks pickup trucks sport utility vehicles suvs and minivans were placed in a different cafe pool than cars when cafe standards were originally passed these vehicles represented a small fraction of the relevant market by 2001 however such vehicles made up approximately one half of the sales of personal vehicles in 2001 light trucks were required to reach 20 7 mpg there is no domestic and foreign division in the cafe regulation for light trucks

offsetting behavior effects of the corporate average fuel economy standards john m yun 1 introduction consumers value many attributes of an automobile the problem for regulators is that many features are highly interrelated such as safety and fuel economy improvements both features are highly correlated with vehicle weight greater weight increases the level of safety in terms of crashworthiness but decreases the fuel economy therefore regulatory attempts to improve fuel economy such as the corporate average fuel economy cafe standards 1 are likely to alter average vehicle weight which will alter the safety of a vehicle crandall and graham 1989 find the reduction in weight attributable to cafe results in a 14 28 increase in occupant fatality risk this article seeks to determine whether drivers are changing their behavior to mitigate the detrimental safety effects of cafe which is essentially another application of peltzman s 1975 offsetting behavior hypothesis cafe through a reduction in passenger car weight will increase the ex ante cost of risky driving 2 relative to its expected benefit the reason is that once an accident occurs the probability of serious injury or death has increased the offsetting behavior hypothesis is that consumers aware of the increased vulnerability will exercise greater due care and reduce the amount of risky driving on the road as a result of cafe however cafe has not just affected the average passenger car weight godek 1997 and yun 1999 indicate that cafe has positively affected the relative sales of light trucks 3 to passenger cars if we assume that light trucks are basically heavy cars with greater visibility the same arguments made for offsetting behavior on the part of passenger car drivers can be applied here 4 the main difference is that truck drivers will be more aggressive and risky because trucks are heavier which lowers the cost of risky driving thus if cafe induces more trucks to be on the road according to the offsetting behavior hypothesis cafe will increase the amount of aggressive truck driving while simultaneously decreasing the amount of aggressive car driving although the article will focus on the offsetting behavior from changes in passenger car weight it is just as relevant for changes in relative truck miles driven section ii reviews the recent research linking automobile weight changes with cafe and recent empirical studies that apply offsetting behavior to automobile regulations 5 section iii details the methodology used to test the offsetting behavior hypothesis section iv contains a discussion of the data the results are reported in section v and section vi concludes the article ii background the cafe standards were initially set at 18 0 mpg for passenger cars and between 15 8 to 17 2 mpg for various light trucks these standards have steadily increased to the current levels of 27 5 mpg for passenger cars and 20 7 mpg for light trucks 6 the key impact of cafe on consumer safety is a reduction in the average passenger car weight figure 1 illustrates the fall in weight since cafe s passage in 1975 crandall and graham 1989 attribute 14 of the fall in weight to cafe 7 using single car accident data they estimate the elasticity of highway occupant fatality rates with respect to average car weight is between 1 22 and 2 30 which implies a 17 32 2 increase in the fatality rate due to cafe using the upper and lower bounds crandall and graham 1989 estimate that cafe is responsible for 2 200 3 900 more deaths over the life span of the cars from a given model year 8 however there is no attempt to explicitly measure possible offsetting behavior effects not all studies find a positive relationship between weight and safety the general accounting office gao 1991 acknowledges a theoretical link between automobile size and safety however they find no direct empirical link between the two

measurement of monopoly behavior an application to the cigarette industry a simple scheme is proposed to measure monopoly pricing behavior the coefficient of the tax rate term in a price equation identifies the ratio of price to marginal cost no direct measurement of costs is required so a major problem for other empirical studies of monopoly is avoided empirical results for cross section time series data support rejection of atomistic competition but also provide evidence against the operation of an effective cartel in the cigarette industry the model represents an alternative interpretation of related results in a recent paper by barzel application of the methodology to other markets is feasible

impatience incentives and obesity this paper explores the relationship between time preferences economic incentives and body mass index bmi using data from the 2006 national longitudinal survey of youth we rst show that greater impatience increases bmi and the likelihood of obesity even after controlling for demographic human capital occupational and nancial characteristics as well as risk preference next we provide evidence of an interaction

cigarette tax avoidance and evasion variation in state cigarette taxes provides incentives for tax avoidance through smuggling legal border crossing to low tax jurisdictions or internet purchasing when taxes rise tax paid sales of cigarettes will decline both because consumption will decrease and because tax avoidance will increase the key innovation of this paper is to compare cigarette sales data to cigarette consumption data from the behavioral risk factor surveillance system brfss i show that after subtracting percent changes in consumption residual percent changes in sales are associated with state cigarette tax changes implying the existence of tax avoidance i estimate that the tax avoidance response to tax changes is at least twice the consumption response and that tax avoidance accounted for up to 9 6 of sales between 1985 and 2001 because of the increase in tax avoidance tax paid sales data understate the level of smoking and overstate the drop in smoking i also find that the level of legal border crossing was very low relative to other forms of tax avoidance if states have strong preferences for smoking control they must pair high cigarette taxes with effective policies to curb smuggling and other forms of tax avoidance or employ alternative policies such as counter advertising and smoking restrictions

the relationship between smoking quitting smoking and obesity in australia a seemingly unrelated probit approach smoking and obesity are two leading causes of preventable death further understanding of the relationship between these two risk factors can assist in reducing avoidable morbidity and mortality this study investigates the empirical association between obesity and the propensity to smoke and to quit smoking using a seemingly unrelated sur probit approach that takes into consideration the potential for reverse causality and unobserved heterogeneity using australian health survey data this article demonstrates the usefulness of the sur probit approach in generating information on the relationship between unobserved factors influencing both smoking behaviour and obesity and in providing estimates of the conditional probabilities of each risk factor results suggest the two risk factors are not independent the presence size and direction of correlation between the unobserved factors are found to vary by smoking behaviour and by gender estimates of conditional probabilities demonstrate smokers have a

do minimum wage increases influence worker health this study investigates whether minimum wage increases impact worker health in the united states we consider self reported measures of general mental and physical health we use data on lesser skilled workers from the 1993 to 2014 behavioral risk factor surveillance survey among men we find no evidence that minimum wage increases improve health instead we find that such increases lead to worse health outcomes particularly among unemployed men we find both worsening general health and improved mental health following minimum wage increases among women these findings broaden our understanding of the full impacts of minimum wage increases on lesser skill workers jel i1 i11 i18

rising cigarette prices and rising obesity coincidence or unintended consequence economists have begun to debate if the rise in cigarette prices in the u s in recent decades has contributed to the nation s rise in obesity reaching conclusions that are surprisingly sensitive to specification i show that allowing for the effect to occur gradually over several years leads to the conclusion that a rise in cigarette prices is actually associated with a long run reduction in body mass index and obesity this result is robust to the different methodologies used in the literature i also provide evidence that indirect effects on exercise and food consumption may explain the counterintuitive result

short run pricing strategies to increase corporate average fuel economy short run pricing strategies to increase corporate average fuel economy i introduction in 1974 the average fuel efficiency of new automobiles sold in the united states reached a low of 14 2 miles per gallon mpg close on the heels of the arab opec oil embargo of 1973 74 and the ensuing petroleum price shocks congress passed the 1975 energy policy and conservation act the act required each manufacturer to meet sales weighted corporate average fuel economy cafe standards beginning with 18 mpg in 1978 and gradually increasing each year to 27 5 mpg in 1985 figure 1 the expressed purpose of the cafe standards was to stimulate the development of technology to improve fuel efficiency the possibility of raising the relative prices of the least energy efficient models as a strategy to meet the standards was considered but only as a last resort 1 although there continues to be intense debate as to whether fuel price increases or the cafe regulations drove the fuel economy improvements of the 1970s and 80s several studies agree that improvements in automotive engineering and design rather than pricing strategies played an overwhelmingly dominant role 2 no empirical evidence supports the effectiveness of using pricing strategies to increase the overall level of automotive fuel economy every year since 1985 automobile manufacturers have successfully petitioned the national highway traffic safety administration which determines the level of the cafe standard to reduce the target from 27 5 to 26 mpg in 1986 88 and 26 5 mpg in 1989 in each case at least one manufacturer argued that it would be unable to meet the original target with its planned product offerings and would have to resort to other strategies that would result in unacceptable economic costs this paper explores a method of estimating the costs of achieving fuel economy goals when pricing strategies are used to alter the distribution of sales the method employs the closed form equation for consumers surplus derived from the multinational logit model of discrete choice discussed by mcfadden 1973 and assumes that manufacturers must bear the full cost of meeting the fuel economy target the estimated cost represents an upper bound on the losses firms would incur by setting prices to minimize loss of profit using econometric estimates of the sensitivity of vehicle choice to vehicle price together with market shares and fuel efficiencies for 1986 i estimate the costs of short term improvements in average fuel economy using pricing strategies for general motors ford and chrysler minor adjustments of up to 1 mpg cost 1 2 percent of the price of a 10 000 car for improvements of 2 mpg or more however pricing strategies become a costly way to improve fuel economy the technique also estimates the market shares for each car line that correspond to the pricing solution it thereby identifies which car lines would be most affected the technique produces precise price changes and market shares for each car line readers should not place too much weight on the apparent precision but should consider the estimates as an approximation the usefulness of which lies in measuring the difficulty of meeting fuel economy targets via pricing strategies alone one can compare the size of these estimates to the fines for failing to meet the standards 50 per mpg per car or to typical manufacturer rebates to stimulate sales often 100 to 2 000 per car ii a formulation of the pricing problem faced with the cafe requirements a firm can respond with engineering and design improvements or by raising the prices of less efficient models and lowering the prices of those that exceed the standard technological improvements generally require a lead time of three to five years very large fluctuations in fuel prices have occurred in far shorter perids figure 1 creating the risk that a manufacturer s product offering could be out of step with the market

market segmentation by price quality schedules some evidence from automobiles discrimination among heterogeneous buyers of a product is possible through the use of multiple quality variants this article quantifies various implications of the standard mussa rosen model of price quality discrimination as applied to the u s automobile industry it demonstrates that the price quality variants of a major manufacturer indeed segment the market as predicted by the model distortions in the range and nature of products offered in their prices and in the resulting consumer surplus in the automobile market are measured and shown to be significant copyright 1992 by university of chicago press

the effects of the corporate average fuel efficiency standards in the us this paper examines the effects of the corporate average fuel economy standards cafe on automobile sales prices and fuel consumption first a discrete choice model of automobile demand and a continuous model of vehicle utilization are estimated using micro data from the consumer expenditure survey for 1984 1990 next the demand side model is combined with a model of oligopoly and product differentiation on the supply side with these elements in place the effects of the cafe regulation are assessed through simulations and compared to the effects of alternative policy instruments such as an increase in gasoline tax

can changing economic factors explain the rise in obesity a growing literature examines the effects of economic variables on obesity typically focusing on only one or a few factors at a time we build a more comprehensive economic model of body weight combining the 1990 2010 behavioral risk factor surveillance system with 27 state level variables related to general economic conditions labor supply and the monetary or time costs of calorie intake physical activity and cigarette smoking controlling for demographic characteristics and state and year fixed effects changes in these economic variables collectively explain 37 of the rise in body mass index bmi 43 of the rise in obesity and 59 of the rise in class ii iii obesity quantile regressions also point to large effects among the heaviest individuals with half the rise in the 90th percentile of bmi explained by economic factors variables related to calorie intake particularly restaurant and supercenter warehouse club densities are the primary drivers of the results

reply to jonathan gruber and michael frakes we address gruber and frakes s criticisms that 1 the state excise tax on a package of cigarettes is a more exogenous measure of the cost of cigarettes than the state specific price of a package of cigarettes and 2 that it is preferable to control for the effects of unmeasured variables that vary over time with the use of time dummies instead of with a quadratic time trend we also point out that our specification of the cost effect differs from theirs because we allow it to be nonlinear while they force it to be linear

trade off between obesity and tobacco consumption recent evidence suggests that obesity and tobacco prevalence rates are moving in the opposite direction this study examines the causal relationship between these variables in argentina the effects of tobacco consumption on body weight are estimated by using instrumental variables to address endogeneity problems to this end the entry into force of provincial laws on tobacco control at different times are exploited our results show that smoking has a negative impact on three weight measures bmi weight in kilograms obesity rate this nding suggests that anti smoking measures should be complemented with nutritional controls and the promotion of physical exercise

on allocative distortions in problems of self selection this article considers the general structure of self selection models by imposing conditions which permit the ordering of agents by their preferences we provide a characterization of the distortions inherent in the sorting process

non separable time preferences novelty consumption and body weight theory and evidence from the east german transition to capitalism abstract this paper develops a dynamic model to illustrate how diet and body weight change when novel food products become available to consumers we propose a microfounded test to empirically discriminate between habit and taste formation in intertemporal preferences moreover we show that novelty consumption and endogenous preferences can explain the persistent correlation between economic development and obesity by empirically studying the german reunification we find that east germans consumed more novel western food and gained more weight than west germans when a larger variety of food products became readily accessible after the fall of the wall the observed consumption patterns suggest that food consumption features habit formation

supersizing supercenters the impact of walmart supercenters on body mass index and obesity abstract researchers have linked the rise in obesity to technological progress reducing the opportunity cost of food consumption and increasing the opportunity cost of physical activity we examine this hypothesis in the context of walmart supercenters whose advancements in retail logistics have translated to substantial reductions in the prices of food and other consumer goods using data from the behavioral risk factor surveillance system matched with walmart supercenter entry dates and locations we examine the effects of supercenters on body mass index bmi and obesity we account for the endogeneity of walmart supercenter locations with an instrumental variables approach that exploits the unique geographical pattern of supercenter expansion around walmart s headquarters in bentonville arkansas an additional supercenter per 100 000 residents increases average bmi by 0 24 units and the obesity rate by 2 3 points these results imply that the proliferation of walmart supercenters explains 10 5 of the rise in obesity since the late 1980s but the resulting increase in medical expenditures offsets only a small portion of consumers savings from shopping at supercenters

the effects of soft drink taxes on child and adolescent consumption and weight outcomes abstract childhood and adolescent obesity is associated with serious adverse lifetime health consequences and its prevalence has increased rapidly soft drink consumption has also expanded rapidly so much so that soft drinks are currently the largest single contributors to energy intake in this paper we investigate the potential for soft drink taxes to combat rising levels of child and adolescent obesity through a reduction in consumption our results based on state soft drink sales and excise tax information between 1989 and 2006 and the national health examination and nutrition survey suggest that soft drink taxation as currently practiced in the united states leads to a moderate reduction in soft drink consumption by children and adolescents however we show that this reduction in soda consumption is completely offset by increases in consumption of other high calorie drinks

monopoly and quality distortion effects and remedies a monopolist that sells in a market in which consumers differ in their willingness to pay for quality will distort and enlarge the range of products offered for sale we examine the positive and normative impacts of remedies used to counteract such distortions for the case of a price ceiling the monopolist improves quality at the low quality end of the market offsetting the distortion induced by the unregulated exercise of monopoly power social welfare can be shown to increase for a sufficiently slight degree of price regulation for minimum quality standards the social welfare implications are ambiguous because the standards may exclude some consumers from the market

automobile quality choice under pollution control regulation in this paper we develop a modified quality choice model to study the effects of various mobile source air pollution control regulations we have a single producer that supplies a fixed number of car types two but faces a spectrum of consumers differing in their valuation of car quality the car manufacturer chooses the quality levels of the two car types as well as the sales mix between the two types and the size of the market it wishes to supply by endogenizing both the sales mix and the market size while still allowing quality to be a choice variable we are able to more completely analyze the impact of any car pollution control regulation existing studies of this impact either focus on the model line adjustment response shifts in the quality array or on the price adjustment response changes in the sales mix and market size in allowing for both the model line and the price adjustment options we find that the corporate average fuel efficiency cafe standard is unambiguously welfare superior to the low emission vehicle quantity constraint lev and zero emission vehicle zev programs we also show that the effects of the cafe standard are not equivalent to those of a fuel tax as previously found and that for a given car pollution target the former is preferred to the latter

quality distortion by a discriminating monopolist the standard model of monopolistic imperfect quality discrimination involving consumer self selection has shown that no distortion occurs at the highest quality level while all lower quality levels are degraded in order to maintain profitable market segmentation this result flows from the assumption that consumers with a higher total utility of quality also have a higher marginal utility of quality the paper develops a reasonable model in which the standard assumption is not satisfied and this alternative model yields vastly different conclusions regarding the form of quality distortion in particular quality may be enhanced not degraded to maintain profitable market segmentation copyright 1989 by american economic association

understanding overeating and obesity abstract the combination of economic and biological factors is likely to result in overeating in the current environment of cheap and readily available food this propensity is shown using a dual decision approach where choices reflect the interaction of a deliberative system operating as in standard economic models and an affective system that responds rapidly to stimuli without considering long term consequences this framework is characterized by excess food consumption and body weight in that individuals prefer both ex ante and ex post to eat and weigh less than they actually do with weight loss attempts being common but often unsuccessful or only partially successful as in the standard model weight is related to prices however another potentially important reason for rising obesity is that food producers have incentives to engineer products to stimulate the affective system so as to encourage overeating data from several sources are used to investigate predictions of the dual decision model with the evidence providing broad support for at least some irrationality in food consumption most importantly there is little indication that the large secular increases in body mass index have been accompanied by corresponding growth in utility maximizing weight one result is that efforts to reduce weight have become more common as obesity has increased

why does liquidity matter in investment equations that liquidity variables affect investment spending is widely accepted despite important recent empirical work questions remain concerning the interpretation of liquidity variables in investment equations and the sources and economic importance of finance constraints these questions are addressed by estimating a variety of econometric models that exploit distinctive canadian institutional features to identify firms that face relatively severe information problems the initial econometric evidence confirms the existence of finance constraints and identifies their source as the problems faced by firms in credibly communicating private information to outsiders this conclusion is robust to biases from the capitalization of finance constraints into asset prices scale economies or imperfect competition which are accounted for directly in the econometric specifications copyright 1995 by ohio state university press