sustainable de growth mapping the context criticisms and future prospects of an emergent paradigm article i nfo sustainable de growth is both a concept and a social grassroots northern movement with its origins in the fieldsofecologicaleconomics socialecology economicanthropologyand environmentalandsocialactivistgroups this paper introduces the concept of sustainable de growth by mapping some of the main intellectual influences fromthese fields with special focus on the francophone and anglophone thinking about this emergent notion we propose hypotheses pertaining to the appeal of sustainable de growth and compare it to the messages enclosed within the dominant sustainable development idea we scrutinize the theses contradictions and consequences of sustainable de growth thinking as it is currently being shaped by a heterogeneous body of literature and as it interacts with an ample and growing corpus of social movements we also discuss possible future paths for the de growth movement compared to the apparent weakening of the sustainable development paradigm

financial contracting theory meets the real world an empirical analysis of venture capital contracts we compare the characteristics of real world financial contracts to their counterparts in financial contracting theory we do so by studying the actual contracts between venture capitalists vcs and entrepreneurs the distinguishing characteristic of vc financings is that they allow vcs to separately allocate cash flow rights board rights voting rights liquidation rights and other control rights we describe and measure these rights we then interpret our results in relation to existing financial contracting theories we also describe the interrelation and the evolution across financing rounds of the different rights query 1 query 2

drivers for the use of materials across countries abstract this paper analyses drivers for resource use and material productivity across countries this is not only relevant in light of soaring raw material prices but also because eu policies such as the thematic strategy on the sustainable use of natural resources com 2005 670 the eu raw materials initiative com 2008 699 and various similar policies internationally seek to better manage materials along their life cycle and across economies in order to better understand the system dynamics of material use our paper applies methodologies of material flow analysis and regression analysis to identify the major drivers for resource use and decoupling from gdp drivers are understood as those factors that exert influence on human activities to use resources a panel data set is taken for the european union for the years 1980 2000 eu 15 and 1992 2000 eu 25 the main drivers of resource use were found to be energy efficiency new dwellings and roads construction activities shortcomings of the methodology are also discussed

the physical dimension of international trade part 1 direct global flows between 1962 and 2005 abstract the physical dimension of international trade is attaining increased importance this article describes a method to calculate complete physical trade flows for all countries which report their trade to the un the method is based on the un comtrade database and it was used to calculate world wide physical trade flows for all reporting countries in nine selected years between 1962 and 2005 the results show increasing global trade with global direct material trade flows reaching about 10 billion tonnes in 2005 corresponding to a physical trade volume of about 20 billion tonnes adding both total imports and total exports the share from european countries is declining mainly in favour of asian countries the dominant traded commodity in physical units was fossil fuels mainly oil physical trade balances were used to identify the dominant resource suppliers and demanders australia was the principal resource supplier over the period with a diverse material export structure it was followed by mainly oil exporting countries with varying volumes as regards to regions latin america south east asian islands and central asia were big resource exporters mostly with increasing absolute amounts of net exports the largest net importers were japan the united states and single european countries emerging countries like the asian tigers with major industrial productive sectors are growing net importers some of them to an even higher degree than european countries altogether with the major exception of australia and canada industrialized countries are net importers and developing countries and transition countries are net exporters but there are important differences within these groups

mixed frequency var models with markov switching dynamics this paper extends the markov switching vector autoregressive models to accommodate both the typical lack of synchronicity that characterizes the real time daily flow of macroeconomic information and economic indicators sampled at different frequencies the results of the empirical application suggest that the model is able to capture the features of the nber business cycle chronology very accurately

energy and resource allocation a dynamic model of the dutch disease it is well known that a domestic resource discovery gives rise to wealth effects that cause a squeeze of the tradeable good sector of an open economy the decline of the manufacturing sector following an energy discovery has been termed the dutch disease and has been investigated in many recent studies our model extends the principally static analyses to date by allowing for 1 short run capital specificity and long run capital mobility 2 international capital flows and 3 far sighted intertemporal optimizing behaviour by households and firms the model is solved by numerical simulation

accounting for inequality in india evidence from household expenditures summary we utilize household level consumption expenditure data from india to examine the evolution of inequality during 1983 2004 various measures of inequality show that inequality levels were relatively stable during 1983 93 but increased during 1993 2004 the increases in inequality have not precluded reductions in poverty however they are also more of an urban phenomenon and can be accounted for by increases in returns to education in the urban sector to a considerable extent especially among households that rely on income from education intensive services and or education intensive occupations some of the increases in the returns to education can be linked to economic liberalization undertaken in the 1990s

insider trading outside search and resource allocation why firms and society may disagree on insider trading restrictions we show that entrepreneurs may prefer to allow insider trading even when it is not socially optimal we examine a model in which an insider manager allocates resources on the basis of his private information and outside information conveyed through the secondary market price of the firm s shares if the manager is allowed to trade he will compete with informed outsiders reducing the equilibrium quality of outside information while the benefits to production of outside information are the same for society and entrepreneurs we show that the social and private costs are different thus entrepreneurs and society may disagree on the conditions under which insider trading restrictions should be imposed article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

integrated data driven analytics to identify instability signatures in nonstationary financial time series abstractwith the objective of identifying instability signatures of the financial system this article integrates two classes of data driven techniques the first class of techniques is utilized to investigate macroeconomic behaviour by aggregating an ensemble of heterogeneous nonstationary time series data and the second class of techniques examines the local dynamics of the microstructures in each time series moving window principal component analysis pca and functional pca fpca are shown to extract collective signatures of the financial system for understanding macroeconomic behaviour and the synchrosqueezing and markov switching techniques are used to study local dynamics within each individual time series the integrated data analytics successfully identifies the diverse events from 1986 to 2012 all events both major and minor have been identified by fpca the major economic events especially the 2008 great recession along with several minor events showed a strong leading indicator in the

financing a portfolio of projects this article shows that investors financing a portfolio of projects may use the depth of their financial pockets to overcome entrepreneurial incentive problems competition for scarce informed capital at the refinancing stage strengthens investors bargaining positions and yet entrepreneurs incentives may be improved because projects funded by investors with shallow pockets must have not only a positive net present value at the refinancing stage but one that is higher than that of competing portfolio projects our article may help understand provisions used in venture capital finance that limit a fund s initial capital and make it difficult to add more capital once the initial venture capital fund is raised jel g24 g31 venture capital finance takes place in an environment of severe informational asymmetries and incentive problems venture capitalists not only must assess the quality of investment proposals submitted to them for funding but once the initial funding has taken place they must also give the right incentives to the entrepreneurs and monitor the performance of the portfolio companies on an ongoing basis this article departs from most of the existing literature by explicitly recognizing that venture capitalists manage a portfolio of projects the need for portfolio management arises if the amount of capital both financial and human available to a venture capital fund is limited implying that venture capitalists must carefully choose which projects to allocate their scarce financial and human resources to 1 by staging their investments venture capitalists retain the right to deny capital infusions to particular

initial shareholdings and overbidding in takeover contests within the context of takeovers this paper shows that in private value auctions the optimal individually rational strategy for a bidder with partial ownership of the item is to overbid i e to bid more than his valuation this strategy however can lead to i an inefficient outcome and ii the winning bidder making a net loss further the overbidding result implies that the presence of a large shareholder increases the bid premium in single bidder takeovers at the expense of reducing the probability of the takeover actually occurring

comparing structural decomposition analysis and index to analyze and understand historical changes in economic environmental employment or other socio economic indicators it is useful to assess the driving forces or determinants that underlie these changes two techniques for decomposing indicator changes at the sector level are structural decomposition analysis sda and index decomposition analysis ida for example sda and ida have been used to analyze changes in indicators such as energy use co2 emissions labor demand and value added the changes in these variables are decomposed into determinants such as technological demand and structural effects sda uses information from input output tables while ida uses aggregate data at the sector level the two methods have developed quite independently which has resulted in each method being characterized by specific unique techniques and approaches this paper has three aims first the similarities and differences between the two approaches are summarized second the possibility of transferring specific techniques and indices is explored finally a numerical example is used to illustrate differences between the two approaches

stage financing and the role of convertible securities venture capital financing is characterized by extensive use of convertible securities and stage financing in a model where a venture capitalist provides staged financing for a project we illustrate an advantage of convertible debt or warrants over a mixture of debt and equity essentially when the venture capitalist retains the option to abandon the project the entrepreneur has an incentive to engage in window dressing and bias positively the short term performance of the project reducing the probability that it will be liquidated an appropriately designed convertible security prevents such behaviour because window dressing also increases the probability that the venture capitalist will exercise the conversion option becoming the owner of a substantial fraction of the project s equity

the real effects of financial markets the impact of prices on takeovers using mutual fund redemptions as an instrument for price changes we identify a strong effect of market prices on takeover activity the trigger effect an interquartile decrease in valuation leads to a seven percentage point increase in acquisition likelihood relative to a 6 unconditional takeover probability instrumentation addresses the fact that prices are endogenous and increase in anticipation of a takeover the anticipation effect our results overturn prior literature that finds a weak relation between prices and takeovers without instrumentation these findings imply that financial markets have real effects they impose discipline on managers by triggering takeover threats does a low market valuation make a firm a takeover target in theory if acquisition prices are related to market prices acquirers can profit from taking over a firm whose market value is low relative to its peers due either to mispricing or mismanagement and restore it to its potential indeed in practice acquirers and other investors appear to track a firm s valuation multiples for indications on the potential for acquisition and managers strive to maintain high market valuations to prevent a hostile takeover understanding whether such a link exists is important because if so this would suggest that the market is not a sideshow but rather exerts a powerful disciplinary effect on firm management as suggested by marris 1964 manne 1965 a ndjensen 1993 despite the above logic existing empirical studies on takeovers fail to systematically uncover a meaningful relationship between market valuations

staged financing an agency perspective this paper investigates the structure of outside investment in a profitable entrepreneurial venture though efficient financing the venture up front may be infeasible because the entrepreneur cannot commit to not renegotiate down the outside investor s claim once she s sunk her investment staging the investment over time helps to mitigate this commitment problem the early rounds of investment create collateral that support the later rounds we characterize the optimal staged investment path and show how it is affected by various features of the venture the predictions of the model are consistent with observations on staged financing in venture capital

robust financial contracting and the role of venture capitalists we derive a role for inside investors such as venture capitalists in resolving various agency problems that arise in a multistage financial contracting problem absent an inside investor the choice of securities is unlikely to reveal all private information and overinvestment may occur an inside investor however always makes optimal investment decisions if and only if he holds a fixed fraction contract where he always receives a fixed fraction of the project s payoff and finances that same fraction of future investments this contract also eliminates any incentives of the venture capitalist to misprice securities issued in later financing rounds in this article we develop a model of financial contracting with multiple investment decisions and show how conflicts of interest and informational asymmetries can be effectively resolved by an inside investor i e an investor who not only provides capital but also works closely with the firm monitors it frequently and is generally very well informed about the firm s prospects and investment opportunities venture capitalists are obvious examples of inside investors and their function has been an important motivation for this article banks especially in japan and germany are also involved in monitoring and can be viewed as playing the role of inside investors in this article we examine the potential benefits of inside investors in a context where there are no restrictions beyond limited liability on the type of financial contracts that can be written we address a basic financial contracting problem involving an entrepreneur who has an idea for a project but does not have sufficient capital to fund it an important assumption is that there are several stages in the project s development and that a decision must be made at each stage whether the project should be continued or abandoned if the project is continued the amount of additional capital to be invested must also be determined we assume that the entrepreneur as an insider observes private information about the project s profitability at each stage this information is not

the physical dimension of international trade part 2 indirect global resource flows between 1962 and 2005 global trade is increasingly being challenged by observations of growing burden shifting in particular of environmental problems this paper presents the first worldwide calculations of shifted burden based on material flow indicators in particular direct and indirect physical trade balances this study covers the period between 1962 and 2005 and includes between 82 and 173 countries per year the results show that indirect trade flow volumes have increased to around 41 billion tonnes in 2005 the traded resources with the highest share of associated indirect flows are iron hard coal copper tin and increasingly palm oil regarding the burden balance between regions europe is the biggest shifter whereas australia and latin america are the largest takers of environmental burden due to resource extraction to evaluate the findings from a global perspective the results are analysed in terms of resource flow induced environmental pressure related to a country s land area in terms of total and per capita area resource endowment and population density seem to be more relevant in determining the physical trade balance including indirect flows than income level

growth in global materials use gdp and population during the 20th century the growing industrial metabolism is a major driver of global environmental change we present an assessment of the global use of materials since the beginning of the 20th century based on the conceptual and methodological principles of material flow accounting mfa on the grounds of published statistical data data compilations and estimation procedures for material flows not covered by international statistical sources we compiled a quantitative estimate of annual global extraction of biomass fossil energy carriers metal ores industrial minerals and construction minerals for the period 1900 to 2005 this period covers important phases of global industrialisation and economic growth the paper analyses the observed changes in the overall size and composition of global material flows in relation to the global economy population growth and primary energy consumption we show that during the last century global materials use increased 8 fold humanity currently uses almost 60 billion tons gt of materials per year in particular the period after wwii was characterized by rapid physical growth driven by both population and economic growth within this period there was a shift from the dominance of renewable biomass towards mineral materials materials use increased at a slower pace than the global economy but faster than world population as a consequence material intensity i e the amount of materials required per unit of gdp declined while materials use per capita doubled from 4 6 to 10 3 t cap yr the main material groups show different trajectories while biomass use hardly keeps up with population growth the mineral fractions grow at a rapid pace we show that increases in material productivity are mostly due to the slow growth of biomass use while they are much less pronounced for the mineral fractions so far there is no evidence that growth of global materials use is slowing down or might eventually decline and our results indicate that an increase in material productivity is a general feature of economic development

does ecologically unequal exchange occur the hypothesis of ecologically unequal exchange posits that low and middle income developing nations maintain an ecological deficit with wealthy developed nations exporting natural resources and high impact commodities thereby allowing wealthy economies to avoid operating ecologically impactful industries at home in this survey we assess the footprint of consumption of 187 countries using eight indicators of environmental pressure in order to determine whether or not this phenomenon occurs we use input output analysis with a new high resolution global multi region input output table to calculate each trading pair s balance of trade in biophysical terms of ghg emissions embodied water and scarcity weighted water content air pollution threatened species human appropriated net primary productivity total material flow and ecological footprint we test three hypotheses that should be true if ecologically unequal exchange occurs one the inter regional balance of trade in biophysical terms is disproportional to the balance of trade in financial terms we find this is true though not strongly so two exports from developing nations are more ecologically intensive than those from developed nations we find this is true three high income nations disproportionately exert ecological impacts in lower income nations we find this is false high income nations are mostly exporters not importers of biophysical resources

venture capital financing moral hazard and learning we consider the provision of venture capital in a dynamic agency model the value of the venture project is initially uncertain and more information arrives by developing the project the allocation of the funds and the learning process are subject to moral hazard the optimal contract is a time varying share contract which provides intertemporal risk sharing between venture capitalist and entrepreneur the share of the entrepreneur reflects the value of a real option the option itself is based on the control of the funds the dynamic agency costs may be high and lead to an inefficient early stopping of the project a positive liquidation value explains the adoption of strip financing or convertible securities finally relationship financing including monitoring and the occasional replacement of the management improves the efficiency of the financial contracting

patterns of change in material use and material efficiency in the successor states of the former soviet union the successor states of the former soviet union present a unique opportunity to study the changes in the socio metabolic profile of a cohort of nations which underwent a radical and contemporaneous shift in economic system that change was from being regions within an economically integrated centrally planned whole to being independent nations left to find their own place in the global economic system the situation of these nations since the dissolution of the soviet union provides a rare experiment in which we might observe the influence of the different starting conditions of each nation on the development path it subsequently followed and the attendant socio metabolic profiles which resulted here we take the opportunity to examine patterns for the region as a whole and for three individual countries we also examine the relative importance of three different drivers of material consumption using a version of the ipat framework finally an area for follow on investigation was suggested by a significant positive correlation observed between the economic growth of individual successor states and the degree to which they improved their material productivity this latter is of potential importance in assessing whether dematerialization acts primarily to accelerate or retard economic growth

technological progress and sustainable development what about the rebound effect abstract sustainability concepts that rest on the idea of resource or energy efficiency improvements due to technological progress tend to overestimate the potential saving effects because they frequently ignore the behavioral responses evoked by technological improvements efficiency improvements also affect the demand for resources and energy and often an increase in efficiency by 1 will cause a reduction in resource use that is far below 1 or sometimes it can even cause an increase in resource use this phenomenon is commonly labeled the rebound effect which is well known among energy economists but never attracted much attention in ecological economics the paper starts with the traditional neoclassical analysis of the rebound effect in a partial equilibrium framework that concentrates on the demand of one particular energy service such as mobility or room temperature it also provides an overview of some of the main empirical studies based on this model that mostly confirm the existence of the rebound effect but are controversial about its actual importance however we have to go beyond the neoclassical single service model in order to take care of the variety of possible feedback affecting energy use the paper presents two important expansions of the single service model in order to show the potential relevance of the rebound effect to ecological economics first it is shown that in a multi services model it proves to be difficult to make general statements about the relevance of the rebound effect in this case the overall effect of an increase in energy efficiency on total energy use depends on the on the assumptions about the substitutability between the services considered and the direction of the income effect second the paper also tries to take care of the fact that changes in resource use or energy use are frequently just side effects of other forms of technological progress especially technological change of a time saving nature can have a large influence on energy use as many time saving devices for example faster modes of transport require an increase in energy consumption that is frequently reinforced by a rebound effect with respect to time this effect will be especially strong when wages are high and at the same time energy prices are low as is currently the case in most industrialized countries consequently the paper also provides a strong argument for the introduction of energy taxes

trading frenzies and their impact on real investment we study a model in which a capital provider learns from the price of a firm s security in deciding how much capital to provide for new investment this feedback effect from the financial market to the investment decision gives rise to trading frenzies in which speculators all wish to trade like others generating large pressure on prices coordination among speculators is sometimes desirable for price informativeness and investment efficiency but speculators incentives push in the opposite direction so that they coordinate exactly when it is undesirable we analyze the effect of various market parameters on the likelihood of trading frenzies to arise

capital shortfall a new approach to ranking and regulating systemic risks the financial crisis of 2007 2009 has given way to the sovereign debt crisis of 2010 2012 yet many of the banking issues remain the same we discuss a method to estimate the capital that a financial firm would need to raise if we have another financial crisis this measure of capital shortfall is based on publicly available information but is conceptually similar to the stress tests conducted by us and european regulators we argue that this measure summarizes the major characteristics of systemic risk and provides a reliable interpretation of the past and current financial crises

capital market myopia abstract the purpose in writing this article is to focus attention on a phenomenon we call capital market myopia a situation in which participants in the capital markets ignore the logical implications of their individual investment decisions viewed in isolation each decision seems to make sense when taken together however they are a prescription for disaster capital market myopia leads to overfunding of industries and unsustainable levels of valuation in the stock market we use the winchester disk drive industry to elucidate the phenomenon we argue that capital market participants should have seen the problem coming they should have known that valuation levels were absurd based in large part on the greater fool theory the data necessary to anticipate the problem were readily available before the industry shakeout began and stock prices collapsed there are several lessons which we believe can be learned by careful examination of the disk drive experience in the period under study these include taking the broad view of the industry is the key to profitable investment the investment mania visited on the hard disk industry contained inherent assumptions about long run industry size and profitability and about the future growth profitability and access to capital for each individual company these assumptions had they been stated explicitly would not have been acceptable to the rational investor certainly there are valuations which arise which cannot be justified under any circumstance these are the times for the manager to raise money from the public capital markets those managers who took advantage of unsustainable valuation levels now have a chance to survive the shakeout growth is not equivalent to profitability the high growth rate in the industry made it the focus of considerable managerial investor and technological attention the industry attracted so many resources that the growth had high probability of being unprofitable excesses in the capital market turned an opportunity into a disaster profits for some are not equivalent to a good business many players made high profits by investing in the hard disk drive business including the investment bankers and certain of the venture capital groups which invested early enough to catch the wave of euphoria in the stock market and still sell under rule 144 many others rode the cycle up and down without liquidity for many buyers of disk drive stocks in 1983 losses were massive short term successes of some gave the illusion of long term profitability for all investors should not be fooled by such invevitably ephemeral successes market instability can be all bad news very rapid change often creates entrepreneurial opportunity it also creates risk analysis of the hard disk drive industry reveals the dark side of rapid technological evolution and of customer instability early players are often preempted by changes in technology and in customer needs early birds are not always winners in product markets but late comers are almost always losers recognizing the chain one of the more important lessons to be learned from the tale of the disk drive industry is that all players entreprenuers venture capitalists investment bankers industry analysts and investors must recognize the chains involved in such a process first there was a technological chain a series of bets on technological advances in disk drive components disk drive designs and end user designs then there was a financial chain a series of related bets on the internal financial health of each player in the technological chain and on the nature of access to capital in the private and public markets the likelihood that any player in the disk drive industry would prosper without a serious setback due to a weak link was effectively zero indeed weaknesses in the chain were created by exactly the same people whose financial success depended on an unbroken series of favorable outcomes during this same period the public capital markets were also a large supplier of funds to the disk drive industry the total amount of money raised in public offerings of common stocks for participants in the industry was over 800 million during the middle part of 1983 the capital markets assigned a value in excess of 5 billion to 12 publicly traded venture capital backed hard disk drive manufacturers the strong market valuation of these companies paralleled the boom in other high technology stocks and rising valuation levels in the stock market in general table 2 contains data on stock prices and valuation levels for some disk drive manufacturers and table 3 provides general data on the economy and capital markets

global patterns of materials use a socioeconomic and geophysical analysis abstract human use of materials is a major driver of global environmental change the links between materials use and economic development are central to the challenge of decoupling of materials use and economic growth dematerialization this article presents a new global material flow dataset compiled for the year 2000 covering 175 countries including both extraction and trade flows and comprising four major material categories biomass construction minerals fossil energy carriers and ores industrial minerals first we quantify the variability and distributional inequality gini coefficients in international material consumption we then measure the influence of the drivers population gdp land area and climate this analysis yields international income elasticities of material use finally we examine the coupling between material flows and between income and material productivity measured in economic production per tonne material consumed material productivity is strongly coupled to income and may thus not be suitable as an international indicator of environmental progress a finding which we relate to the economic inelasticity of material consumption the results demonstrate striking differences between the material groups biomass is the most equitably distributed resource economically the most inelastic and is not correlated to any of the mineral materials the three mineral material groups are closely coupled to each other and economic activity indicating that the challenge of dematerializing industrial economies may require fundamental structural transformation our analysis provides a first systematic investigation of international differences in material use and their drivers and thus serves as the basis for more detailed future work

the building blocks of international ecological footprint inequality a regression based decomposition this paper carries out an empirical decomposition of international inequality in the ecological footprint with a view to quantifying the extent of the contribution of explanatory variables such as countries affluence economic structure demographic characteristics climate and technology using data for the period 1993 2007 the regression based inequality decomposition methodology we use allows us to extend the results obtained in standard environmental impact regressions stirpat models and to deal with an often neglected aspect of such models that of equity within generations the results obtained point towards the prioritization of policies which take into account both future and present generations in this regard economic redistribution should be considered as a primary environmental policy

what causes inequality in material productivity between countries abstract material productivity mp is a sustainability indicator that measures usage efficiency for raw materials the use of natural resources has grown steeply since the industrial revolution and this growth has even accelerated in recent decades it has thus become critical to monitor the intensity of natural resource usage when producing intermediate or final goods discovering which socio economic variables influence the mp indicator and explain differences between economic units is nowadays a key issue on average mp has increased over the past two decades but at the same time so has disparity between countries this paper s contribution consists in discovering the explanatory variables for both these phenomena in order to achieve that aim a regression based inequality decomposition rbid methodology is used the original fields rbid model has been transformed into a logarithmic model which allows us to directly obtain the elasticity of mp to changes in its drivers the sample we use is broadly representative of the worldwide situation in the years 1990 2010 our main results are that in terms of explaining inequalities and changes in mp the agricultural share of gdp is the most relevant explanatory variable and that this is followed by affluence the explanatory powers of population density and trade openness are perhaps surprisingly of much lower importance the results are useful not only in academic terms but also for policy guidance

manipulation and the allocational role of prices it is commonly believed that prices in secondary financial markets play an important allocational role because they contain information that facilitates the efficient allocation of resources this paper identifies a limitation inherent in this role of prices it shows that the presence of a feedback effect from the financial market to the real value of a firm creates an incentive for an uninformed trader to sell the firm s stock when this happens the informativeness of the stock price decreases and the beneficial allocational role of the financial market weakens the trader profits from this trading strategy partly because his trading distorts the firm s investment we therefore refer to this strategy as manipulation we show that trading without information is profitable only with sell orders driving a wedge between the allocational implications of buyer and seller initiated speculation and providing justification for restrictions on short sales

the causal factors of international inequality in hbox co _ 2 emissions per capita a regression based inequality decomposition analysis this paper uses the possibilities provided by the regression based inequality decomposition fields in res labor econ 22 1 38 2003 to explore the contribution of different explanatory factors to international inequality in hbox co 2 emissions per capita in contrast to previous emissions inequality decompositions which were based on identity relationships this methodology does not impose any a priori specific relationship thus it allows an assessment of the contribution to inequality of different relevant variables in short the paper appraises the relative contributions of affluence sectoral composition demographic factors and climate the analysis is applied to selected years of the period 1993 2007 the results show the important though decreasing share of the contribution of demographic factors as well as a significant contribution of affluence and sectoral composition

sequential sales learning and cascades when ipo shares are sold sequentially later potential investors can learn from the purchasing decisions of earlier investors this can lead rapidly to cascades in which subsequent investors optimally ignore their private information and imitate earlier investors although rationing in this situation gives rise to a winner s curse it is irrelevant the model predicts that 1 offerings succeed or fail rapidly 2 demand can be so elastic that even risk neutral issuers underprice to completely avoid failure 3 issuers with good inside information can price their shares so high that they sometimes fail 4 an underwriter may want to reduce the communication among investors by spreading the selling effort over a more segmented market consider a scenario in which an issuer is selling a new security of uncertain value for example an ipo initial public offering of stock or high yield debt through an underwriter the s e c has banned variable price sales while the value of this new security is highly uncertain to individual market participants investors hold perfectly accurate information when aggregated moreover there are many potential investors and a small number of these investors can jointly determine the value of the firm or its project with high precision it would seem that in this scenario underpriced offerings would succeed and overpriced offerings would fail nevertheless this paper shows that if the distribution channels of invest ment banks are limited underpriced offerings can fail and overpriced offer ings can succeed with limited distribution channels it takes the under writer time to approach interested investors therefore later investors can observe how well an offering has sold to date or at least how successful it has sold relative to offerings previously undertaken by this underwriter

posturing and holdup in innovation we show that the need to posture can help solve the holdup problem inherent in many multistage relationships including those between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists posturing arises when an informed party needs to send a strong signal to induce skeptical third parties like employees suppliers customers or competitors to develop maintain relationships with the firm or take other actions that increase firm value in the venture capital context this can be credibly achieved if the vc publicly invests at high prices in later rounds this tempers holdup by shifting ex post bargaining power toward the entrepreneur inducing him to exert greater effort

feedback effects and asset prices feedback effects from asset prices to firm cash flows have been empirically documented this finding raises a question for asset pricing how are asset prices determined if price affects fundamental value which in turn affects price in this environment by buying assets that others are buying investors ensure high future cash flows for the firm and subsequent high returns for themselves hence investors have an incentive to coordinate which may generate self fulfilling beliefs and multiple equilibria using insights from global games we pin down investors beliefs analyze equilibrium prices and show that strong feedback leads to higher excess volatility

socio ecological regime transitions in austria and the united kingdom we employ the concepts of socio ecological regime and regime transition to better understand the biophysical causes and consequences of industrialization for two case studies the united kingdom and austria we describe two steps in a major transition from an agrarian to an industrial socio ecological regime and the resulting consequences for energy use land use and labour organization in a first step the coal based industrial regime co existed with an agricultural sector remaining within the bounds of the old regime in a second step the oil electricity based industrial regime agriculture was integrated into the new pattern and the socio ecological transition had been completed industrialization offers an answer to the input and growth related sustainability problems of the agrarian regime but creates new sustainability problems of a larger scale while today s industrial societies are stabilizing their resource use albeit at an unsustainable level large parts of the global society are in midst of the old industrial transition this poses severe problems for global sustainability

decoupling global environmental pressure and economic growth scenarios for energy use materials use and carbon emissions in recent decades economic growth and increased human wellbeing around the globe have come at the cost of fast growing natural resource use including materials and energy and carbon emissions leading to converging pressures of declining resource security rising and increasingly volatile natural resource prices and climate change we ask whether well designed policies can reduce global material and energy use and carbon emissions with only minimal impacts on improvements in living standards we use a novel approach of combined economic and environmental modelling to assess the potential for decoupling for 13 world regions and globally we apply a production territorial and consumption approach to discuss regional differences in natural resource use and carbon emissions across three stylized policy outlooks a reference case with no significant changes to environment and climate policies a high efficiency outlook involving a global carbon price rising from 50 to 236 constant price per tonne of co2 between 2010 and 2050 and improvements in resource efficiency rising from 1 5 historically to between 3 5 and 4 5 in the scenarios and a medium efficiency outlook midway between the no change and high outlooks we find that global energy use will continue to grow rapidly under all three scenarios from 17 billion tonnes of oil equivalent toe in 2010 to between 30 and 36 billion toe carbon emissions would be considerably lower with a global carbon price less than half the level of the reference case 29 37 billion tonnes of co2 instead of 74 billion tonnes and also material use would grow much more slowly under a carbon price and significant investment to increase resource efficiency 95 instead of 180 billion tonnes of materials we find that oecd economies have significant potential to reduce their material throughput and carbon emissions with little impact on economic growth and that developing economies such as china could expand their economies at much lower environmental cost globally the effects of very strong abatement and resource efficiency policies on economic growth and employment until 2050 are negligible our study suggests that decarbonization and dematerialization are possible with well designed policy settings and would not contradict efforts to raise human wellbeing and standards of living the research demonstrates the usefulness of scenarios for unpacking environmental and economic outcomes of policy alternatives the findings have important implications for future economic opportunities in a highly resource efficient and low carbon global economy to set human development and achieving the sustainable development goals on a more resilient path

trading volume and serial correlation in stock returns this paper investigates the relationship between aggregate stock market trading volume and the serial correlation of daily stock returns for both stock indexes and individual large stocks the first order daily return autocorrelation tends to decline with volume the paper explains this phenomenon using a model in which risk averse market makers accommodate buying or selling pressure from liquidity or noninformational traders changing expected stock returns reward market makers for playing this role the model implies that a stock price decline on a high volume day is more likely than a stock price decline on a low volume day to be associated with an increase in the expected stock return

the causal relationship between renewable electricity generation and gdp growth a study of energy sources abstract this paper examines the causal relationship between economic growth and electricity generation from renewable sources biomass geothermal hydroelectric solar waste and wind across 20 oecd countries over 1990 to 2008 the results from a commonly used panel error correction model find a a bidirectional relationship between aggregate renewable generation and real gdp b biomass hydroelectricity waste and wind energy exhibit a positive long run relationship with gdp c hydroelectricity and waste generation exhibit a short run positive bidirectional relationship with gdp growth and d biomass hydroelectric and waste electricity generation have the largest impact on real gdp in the long run we extend the analysis to consider the possibility of structural breaks and cross sectional dependence accounting for cross sectional dependence we find that in the short run increases in biomass and waste generation negatively affect gdp while aggregate renewable and hydroelectricity increase gdp energy conservation policies will positively impact gdp if the policies cause decreases in biomass or waste energy but increase hydroelectricity and wind energy