standardization and variety abstract in the tradeoff between standardization and variety there can be too much or too little variety the latter possibility can only happen if there are several equilibria

capital taxation and accumulation in a life cycle growth model almost all of the serious economic work on savings decisions within the past decade has relied on some variant of the life cycle hypothesis in which savings arise out of individual choices of an optimum lifetime consumption path this paper reexamines the incidence and welfare consequences of capital income taxes within a realistic life cycle model the results suggest that the elimination of capital income taxation would have very substantial economic effects for example a complete shift to consumption taxation might raise steady state output by as much as 18 percent and consumption by 16 percent the long run welfare gain from such a shift would for plausible parameter values exceed 150 billion annually stated somewhat differently shifting to consumption taxation would raise the lifetime utility of the representative consumer by the equivalent of about six years income in the new steady state these estimates dwarf estimates of the static welfare cost of taxation and significantly exceed even extreme previous estimates of the dynamic loss this study departs from earlier analyses of the effects of taxes on capital income in several respects probably the most important difference between this treatment and most preceding ones lies in the assumptions about the interest elasticity of saving it is shown below that the common two period formulation of saving decisions yields quite misleading results a more realistic model of life cycle savings demonstrates that for a wide variety of plausible parameter values savings are very interest elastic this implies that shifting away from capital income taxation would significantly increase capital formation making possible long run increases in consumption many studies of the welfare effects of capital income taxation have ignored the general equilibrium effects of increased capital formation in an economy with life cycle savings there is no presumption that the undistorted growth path corresponds to any sort of social optimum as peter diamond has shown life cycle savings can lead to a steady state capital intensity either greater or less than the golden rule level more generally it is clear that there is no reason to believe that a life cycle economy will maximize any particular intertemporal social welfare function a fundamental tenet of welfare evaluation is that preexisting distortions must be considered in evaluating the consequences of tax changes the results presented in this paper take explicit account of the nonoptimal character of the no tax steady state this explains in large part why such a sizeable welfare effect of capital taxes is found in an economy far from the golden rule level of capital intensity there are substantial gains in steady state consumption achievable through increased capital formation section i of the paper examines the aggregate savings function in a continuous time life cycle framework the second section clarifies the differences between wage and consumption taxes an aggregate production function is added to complete the model in the third section the effects of changes in capital taxes on both steady state incidence and welfare are considered within a general equilibrium framework the final section of the paper discusses some implications of the results and suggests areas which appear to warrant further study assistant professor of economics massachusetts institute of technology and research analyst national bureau of economic research i am grateful to alan auerbach martin feldstein laurence kotlikoff to the participants in the nber workshop on business taxation and to the harvard public finance seminar for useful discussions james poterba and james buchal performed the numerical calculations

the debt payment to income ratio as an indicator of borrowing constraints evidence from two household surveys liquidity constraints have been proposed as an important explanation for deviations from the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis this paper introduces to the liquidity constraint literature the ratio of a household s debt payments to its disposable personal income the debt service ratio dsr we find that a household with a high dsr is significantly more likely to be turned down for credit than other households also the consumption growth of likely constrained households identified using the dsr along with the liquid asset to income ratio is significantly more sensitive to past income than that of other households confirming the dsr s value in identifying constrained households

public versus private investment in human capital endogenous growth and income inequality in this paper we present an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents in which human capital investment through formal schooling is the engine of growth we use simple functional forms for preferences technologies and income distribution to highlight the distinction between economies with public education and those with private education we find that income inequality declines more quickly under public education on the other hand private education yields greater per capita incomes unless the initial income inequality is sufficiently high we also find that societies will choose public education if a majority of agents have incomes below average

the transition from payroll to consumption receipts with endogenous human capital abstract the transition from payroll to consumption receipts is simulated in a life cycle growth model featuring adult human capital as in other studies savings are higher under the consumption base however unlike those studies much of the additional savings here take human form human capital production increases for all cohorts in or yet to join the labor market as of the tax change the additional human capital production tends to dampen physical capital accumulation when compared with otherwise identical simulations which hold human capital constant the implications for intergenerational incidence are similar to that found in other examinations of the transition to a consumption base

when credit bites back using data on 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008 we document two key facts of the modern business cycle relative to typical recessions financial crisis recessions are costlier and more credit intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions in financial crises or otherwise and slower recoveries we use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macro economic controls to study how past credit accumulation impacts key macro economic variables such as output investment lending interest rates and inflation the facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that financial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle

tax policy the interest elasticity of saving and capital accumulation numerical analysis of theoretical models increasing disillusionment with traditional empirical methods is having a major impact on research methodology which is increasingly turning to simulation analysis based on theoretical models and assumed parameter values in research on saving and wealth accumulation there have been several recent studies consisting of simulation of theoretical models based on the life cycle model a particular focus has been tax policy and capital formation which is the area of concentration of this paper the aim is to analyze in a theoretical simulation context the impact on saving and wealth of an increase in the after tax rate of return to saving generated by a cut in the tax rate on income from capital this paper suggests that such simulation analysis while instructive as to the behavior of the class of models examined and as to the critical channels of influence does not yield a theoretical presumption in favor of cutting taxes on income from capital as a means of stimulating capital formation the development of this literature derives in part from disillusionment with traditional empirical methods many such papers begin by listing a litany of the problems involved in the usual type of empirical analysis before proceeding to simulation of theoretical structures the implicit conclusion at times appears to be that because of the daunting problems of standard empirical methodology the results derived from it can be ignored and that empirical magnitudes can perhaps be discovered by deductive means the temptation to think of the precise numerical results derived from theoretical simulation as empirical can be rather strong it needs to be reemphasized that empirical magnitudes can only be determined by empirical studies in section i the theoretical structure of a zero bequest life cycle model2 is outlined and several numerical simulations of this model are presented these simulations highlight interesting and nontrivial interactions of theoretical parameters and also demonstrate the difficulty involved in attempts to develop robust aggregate implications from such a framework for instance it is argued that summers claim to have developed a prima facie theoretical case for a high interest elasticity of savings 1981a p 537 does not stand up to sensitivity analysis a small change in the assumed rate of pure time preference or in other parametric assumptions generate otherwise plausible cases in which the interest elasticity of aggregate saving is low the experiments conducted in section i are partial equilibrium in the sense that the interest rate is changed exogenously which changes savings and hence the capital stock but the feedback effect of the capital international monetary fund this paper derives from chs 2 and 3 of my doctoral dissertation completed during a research fellowship at the brookings institution financial support was received from brookings and the social science research council i am grateful to henry aaron barry bosworth maxim engers irwin friend laurence kotlikoff franco modigliani joseph pechman duncan ripley robert shiller patricia stack and my supervisor albert ando for comments and guidance on earlier drafts none of the above institutions or individuals is responsible for the views expressed or any remaining errors for example see james tobin and walter dolde betsy white lawrence summers 1978 1981a b g moore alan auerbach and laurence kotlikoff and auerbach kotlikoff and j skinner 2it is popular to establish a sharp dichotomy between life cycle models and bequest models this taxonomy ignores the frequent references to the potential significance of bequests in the writings of the originators of the life cycle hypothesis a distinction between zero bequest life cycle models and life cycle models incorporating bequests is more accurate in terms of doctrinal history see for example albert ando and franco modigliani and modigliani and richard brumberg

taxes in a life cycle growth model with bequests and inheritances in a recent paper lawrence summers 1981 analyzes alternative taxes in a life cycle growth model this paper extends his analysis to include bequests and inheritances this inclusion is worth undertaking for several reasons first several recent empirical studies have suggested that bequests may account for an important share of the capital stock laurence kotlikoff and summers 1981 second it is important to explore whether the comparison of taxes is significantly affected when a bequest motive is introduced third the treatment of bequests under a consumption tax is controversial the endowment rationale calls for treating a bequest as taxable consumption by the deceased peter mieszkowski 1980 the real wage rationale calls for exempting bequests if such exemption raises the steady state capital intensity and real wage my 1980 article this paper confines itself to positive analysis of steady states transition paths and normative implications are explored elsewhere see my 1982 paper

efficient dynamic pollution taxation in an uncertain environment this paper analyzes efficient pollution taxation within a stochastic model of endogenous growth pollution is a by product of production and causes disutility furthermore the productivity which results from environmental quality is uncertain this reflects e g uncertain capital depreciation induced by natural disasters like hurricanes or floods this uncertainty is shown to raise an ambiguous impact on the optimal pollution level as well as on optimal environmental taxation market equilibrium turns out to be suboptimal since the households mis perceive their individual impact on pollution conditions for welfare maximizing pollution taxation are stated and it is shown that a direct pollution tax is not appropriate to yield pareto optimal growth instead a linear capital income tax together with a linear abatement subsidy build an efficient tax scheme if secondarily the governmental budget is balanced moreover an increase in the riskiness of environmental productivity may even lead to an increase in the optimal pollution level and to a decrease in optimal environmental taxation depending predominantly on the preference parameters

wealth taxation and economic growth abstract this paper investigates the effect of wealth taxation on economic growth using an endogenous growth model with the altruistic bequest motive we introduce intragenerational productivity differentials of human capital formation resulting in differences of growth rates among individuals the economy is divided into two groups those who leave bequests to physical capital investment and those who leave bequests to human capital investment an increase in taxes on life cycle savings will reduce the intragenerational growth differences while the effect of taxation on bequests wage income or consumption on intragenerational growth differences is ambiguous

progressive taxes equity and human capital accumulation in an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations abstract this paper explores the trade off between efficiency and intra and intergenerational equity in an endogenous growth model of an open economy with overlapping generations and human capital accumulation we demonstrate that progressive taxes hurt long run growth and exacerbate distortions associated with intergenerational spillovers however by raising saving these taxes strengthen the net foreign asset position

the effect of taxation on human capital this study finds a significant negative effect of proportional income taxation on human capital of the few earlier studies to address this issue most suggested a negligible effect of taxation on investment in human capital this earlier conclusion is shown to be incorrect by using a model that is more general in several respects than the models used previously

political equilibrium income distribution and growth this paper analyzes the impact of income distribution on growth when investment in human capital is the source of growth and individuals vote over the degree of redistribution in the economy the model has three main features first very different patterns of income distribution are conducive to high growth at different levels of per capita income second growth is associated with an externality whereby investment in human capital by one group increases the productivity of other groups thus potentially enabling them to invest in human capital third the initial pattern of income distribution and the resulting political equilibrium are crucial in determining whether the transmission of this externality is promoted in which case growth is enhanced or prevented in which case growth is stopped using a non overlapping generations model with voting i derive several empirical implications in particular the model implies an inverted u relation between levels of inequality and levels of income in cross sections but not necessarily in time series a result that seems consistent with a number of empirical studies

the importance of eu 15 borders for ceecs agri food exports the role of tariffs and non tariff measures in the pre accession period abstract this paper assesses the evolution of the eu 15 market access for the agri food products originating from ceecs a gravity model technique has been used to assess the overall trade resistance border effect and to weight its various components such as tariff and non tariff measures sanitary and phytosanitary standards other quality measures in the pre accession period 1999 2004 the findings reveal despite the undertaken integration and trade liberalisation processes a persisting and significant trade resistance for the ceecs agri food exports to the eu market even just prior their accession in 2004 still present difficulties in market access at the time are partially explained by tariff and non tariff measures while a large part of border effect remains in the domain of other presumably non trade policy related factors home bias consumer preferences etc these results indicate that despite the accession process customs union and adoption of the eu standards the trade integration of the enlarged eu market was not yet completed in 2004

booms and banking crises banking crises are rare events that break out in the midst of credit intensive booms and bring about deep and long lasting recessions this paper presents a textbook dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to explain these phenomena the model features a nontrivial banking sector where bank heterogeneity gives rise to an interbank market moral hazard and asymmetric information in this market may lead to sudden market freezes banking crises credit crunches and severe financial recessions those recessions follow credit booms and are not necessarily triggered by large exogenous adverse shocks

tax structure and growth in a model with human capital abstract the effect of the tax structure on the long run growth rate of income and consumption is analyzed where tax structure refers to the mix of taxes on physical and human capital which satisfy an exogenously given government budget constraint the factor used intensively in the consumption good sector relative to the capital goods sector as a whole is taxed more highly in a growth maximizing tax structure an endogenous labor supply the tax treatment of depreciation and the effect of replacing the income tax with a consumption tax are all considered

is there a debt threshold effect on output growth abstract this paper studies the relationship between public debt expansion and economic growth and investigates whether the debt growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness we contribute theoretically by developing tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross sectionally dependent errors in the empirical application using data on a sample of forty countries over the 1965 2010 period we find no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth regardless of the threshold however we find significant negative effects of public debt buildup on output growth

comprehensive income taxation investments in human and physical capital and productivity abstract this paper analyses the implications of the comprehensive income tax for the accumulation of human and physical capital and for the overall productivity level of the economy a comprehensive income tax applying to both labour income and capital income is shown to discriminate against investments in human capital relative to investments in physical capital it has an adverse impact on human capital accumulation and lowers productivity

factor income taxation and growth under asymmetric information abstract this paper studies the growth effects of factor income taxation on capital and labor in an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations capital accumulation in our model takes place through credit financed investments in a market with asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers we show that in the presence of asymmetric information capital income taxation worsens the adverse selection problem in the credit market which in turn introduces an additional adverse effect on growth in so doing our analysis provides a new argument in favor of a lower higher capital labor income taxation in funding public expenditures

rational incompatibility with international product standards abstract international product standardization enables traditional price based competition but the existence of redesign costs or network effects creates market frictions that diminish the incentive to standardize if there already exists a different technology in an established market this leads to multi attribute competition between products and will generally reduce trade flows not only do incumbent firms using a different technology have an incentive to deviate from an international standard but a host country government concerned for its consumers welfare has no incentive to enforce the international standard and may even value deviation from the international standard through technical barriers to trade

technology revolutions in the presence of network externalities abstract the purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of varying consumer preferences over technology advance and network size on the timing and frequency of new technology adoption in the presence of installed bases resulting from network externalities the paper shows that the duration of each adopted technology and the frequency of technology adoptions depend on a whether in consumers perspectives the network size effect is a substitute for or a complement to the quality of the technologies b the degree of compatibility of new technologies with the old technology and c the technology growth rate and consumer population size

taxation and growth with overlapping generations abstract this paper examines the growth effects of wage and interest income taxation in an endogenous growth model which is characterized by diminishing point in time returns in human capital producing technology and overlapping generations of two period lived individuals we show that the greater the long term learning time of individuals the more individuals inherit human capital from the previous generation we demonstrate that a flat rate wage tax stimulates economic growth while interest income taxation does not necessarily foster such growth intergenerational redistribution induces individuals to change both physical and human capital accumulation affecting the growth rate through changes in factor prices

abatement technology and the environment growth nexus with education this article challenges the conventional result that a tighter environmental tax has no long run effect on human capital accumulation in the presence of pollution arising from final output production it demonstrates that the technology used in the abatement sector determines the existence and the direction of the growth effect a tighter environmental tax rises respectively reduces human capital accumulation in the presence of pollution arising from final production if the abatement sector is relatively more intensive in human resp physical capital than final sector that result always holds for finite lifetime but for infinite lifetime it only holds when labor supply is endogenous the transitional impact of a tighter environmental policy is also investigated

competing compatibility standards and network externalities in the pc software market this paper is an empirical study of the value of four file compatibility standards for transferring data in the personal computer software market the results are that only the lotus file compatibility standard is significant in explaining price variations and it is significant in both the spreadsheet and database management system markets this supports the hypothesis that the personal computer software market exhibits complementary network externalities copyright 1995 by mit press

growth distribution and politics we start by arguing that to understand growth differences across countries and time one needs to understand differences in public policies that affect the incentives for productive accumulation of capital human capital or technically useful knowledge and to understand policy differences one needs to understand how political institutions aggregate conflicting interests into public policies we then survey some recent work along these lines which argues that more inequality leads to slower growth next we illustrate some of the basic ideas of this work by help of a simple model of taxation we also present some econometric cross country evidence which is largely supportive of the basic ideas we end by suggestions for further work this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

public debt and growth heterogeneity and non linearity we study the long run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries our analysis builds on theoretical arguments and data considerations in modelling the debt growth relationship as heterogeneous across countries we investigate the debt growth nexus adopting linear and non linear specifications employing novel methods and diagnostics from the time series literature adapted for use in the panel we find some support for a negative relationship between public debt and long run growth across countries but no evidence for a similar let alone common debt threshold within countries

redistribution and education subsidies are siamese twins abstract we develop models of optimal linear and non linear income taxation with endogenous human capital formation to explore optimal education subsidies optimal subsidies on education ensure efficiency in human capital accumulation and thus play an important role in alleviating the tax distortions on learning induced by redistributive policies if the government cannot verify all investments in human capital education policy offsets some but not all tax induced distortions on learning non pecuniary educational costs benefits may increase decrease subsidies on education especially if they are complementary to work effort

systems competition and network effects this paper discusses firm behavior market performance and the public and private institutions that arise in systems markets i e markets where consumers use compatible components together to generate benefits in such markets which include communications networks and hardware software networks popular products are inherently more valuable these network effects can drive corporate strategies and are critical in understanding innovation in many high technology markets the discussion here emphasizes the dynamics of consumer adoption decisions in the presence of network effects competition between incompatible systems and how suppliers choose which components are compatible and which are not

private and public debt interlinkages in bad times abstract drawing on a large sample of recession episodes we document that those preceded by larger buildups in private debt tend to be followed by larger accumulations of public debt similarly to recessions preceded by a rapid run up in public debt these ex post public debt buildups are associated with a more muted growth in government expenditures and a sharper rise in fiscal stress the documented pattern becomes particularly intense in financial crises and emerges in both low and high public debt environments these empirical regularities suggest that private sector indebtedness should be considered a relevant factor in the assessment of the soundness of the fiscal position

technical compatibility and the mode of foreign entry with network externalities we examine the preferences of a foreign firm and a local government over two modes of foreign direct investment de novo entry and acquisition of the domestic incumbent two crucial features of the model are network externalities and partial incompatibility between the domestic and the foreign technology the relative welfare impact of the two entry modes depends on the degree of market competition and the strength of the network externality the clash between the foreign firm s choice and the local government s ranking of the two entry modes can motivate limits on the degree of foreign ownership of the local firm ce texte examine les preferences d une firme etrangere et d un gouvernement du pays hote quant a deux modes d investissement direct de l etranger entree de novo de la firme etrangere versus acquisition d une firme domestique en place deux facteurs pris en compte sont la presence d externalites de reseau et d incompatibilite partielle entre la technologie locale et celle introduite par la firme etrangere l impact relatif des modes d entree sur le mieux etre local depend du degre de concurrence sur le marche et de l importance des externalites de reseau le conflit entre les preferences de l entreprise etrangere et les preferences du gouvernement local peuvent etre a la source de politiques qui limitent le degre de proprieteetrangere permis

standardization policy and international trade abstract we analyze governments incentives to recognize foreign standards when there are potentially both network effects and conversion costs when government policy is limited to either recognizing all foreign standards or not recognizing any foreign standard recognition is always the outcome we then consider a setting in which countries can form standardization unions when conversion costs are relatively large two countries can increase their welfare by forming a standardization union that does not recognize the standard of the third nonmember country when network effects are significant all countries mutually recognize all standards and have no incentives to form standardization unions

international standards and international trade empirical evidence from iso 9000 diffusion abstract empirical scholarship on the standards trade relationship has been held up due to methodological challenges measurement varied effects and endogeneity considering the trade effects of one particular standard iso 9000 we surmount methodological challenges by measuring standardization via national penetration of iso 9000 allowing standardization to manifest via multiple quality signaling information compliance cost and common language channels and using instrumental variable multilateral resistance and panel data techniques to overcome endogeneity we find evidence of common language and quality signaling augmenting country pair trade yet iso rich nations benefit the most from standardization while iso poor nations find iso 9000 to represent a trade barrier due to compliance cost effects