marshall s scale economies using panel data this paper estimates plant level production functions for machinery and high tech industries that allow for scale externalities from other plants in the same industry locally and from the scale or diversity of local economic activity outside the own industry the paper finds that the count of other own industry plants representing a count of local information spillover sources has strong productivity effects in high tech but not machinery industries single plant firms both benefit more from and generate greater external benefits than corporate plants given their greater reliance on external environments on dynamic externalities high tech single plant firms benefit also from the scale of past own industry activity i find little evidence of economies from the diversity or scale of local economic activity outside the own industry

elements for the development of public policies in the residential sector of mexico based in the energy reform and the energy transition law abstract mexico has entered in an important dynamic of structural changes in the energy area proof of this it is the energy reform 2013 and the energy transition law published the last december 24th 2015 thus it is important to carry out studies of the impacts of future politics in the consumption of the population so this study estimate an energy demand system using microdata collected from 97 817 households in a national households income and expenditure survey enigh acronyms in spanish encuesta nacional de ingresos y gastos de los hogares in the 20 years period from 1994 to 2014 the magnitudes of all the fuels are smaller than one indicating that electricity lpg gasoline and public transport are normal goods while lpg is the most inelastic energy source the geographic factor shows that households in the north of mexico tend to consume more gasoline whereas in the south of the country the lowest share of lpg expenditure is reported the rigorous evaluation of energy demanded in households will help policy makers to put forward more efficient reforms

fuel consumption for road transport in the usa abstract this study provides both a historical analysis of fuel demand for road transport and an example of using econometric results for projections fuel consumption by all motor vehicles in the usa has been analysed by splitting total demand into passenger car truck and other demands distance travelled and fuel efficiency equations have been estimated for both the passenger car fleet and trucks an essentially five equation model has been constructed and used to simulate likely fuel demand patterns up to 1990

the demand for gasoline abstract sufficient time must be allowed to elapse to assess fully the response of gasoline demand to price changes hitherto empirical work on the subject has generally not examined the period beyond 1975 moreover the extant time series studies concentrate almost exclusively on the usa this study extends both the observation period and the country coverage a vehicle stock adjustment model is estimated via its reduced form without explicit consideration of the vehicle stock itself however the estimation procedure incorporates the structure by way of constraints on the parameters cross section analysis offers additional evidence concerning the truly long run price elasticity the results suggest that there is no need to resort to elaborate models to explain adequately gasoline demand gasoline demand exhibits a long run price elasticity near unity with time lags exceeding six years while there is tentative evidence that the duration of these lags is not fixed

demand for gasoline in kuwait an empirical analysis using cointegration techniques abstract this paper estimates the demand for gasoline in kuwait for the period 1970 1989 using a cointegration and error correction model ecm it is found that gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run and while it is elastic in the long run gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short run this suggests that gasoline demand response to income changes is higher in the long run than in the short run furthermore gasoline consumption adjusts towards its long run level with about 52 of the adjustment occurring in the first year

a new test of money income causality this paper investigates the prima facie causal relationship between money and income employing a methodology the multiple rank f test the results of which are invariant to monotonic transformations of all variables and robust over alternative distributions of the errors in contrast to prior functional form dependent parametric analyses evidence of prima facie causality between money and income is found for the 1970 88 time period this evidence is consistent with an elementary theoretical framework in which the direction and strength of causality is dependent upon the definition of money copyright 1992 by ohio state university press

energy demand in ghana a disaggregated analysis this paper presents a comprehensive analysis of energy demand in ghana by estimating demand functions for key disaggregated energy components including gasoline diesel liquefied petroleum gas lpg kerosene biomass residual fuel oil rfo and electricity our results show that energy prices income urbanization and economic structure are significant demand drivers of the different energy types in ghana with varying estimated elasticities further there is evidence of high degree of inter fuel substitution in energy demand in ghana particularly from gasoline diesel and kerosene towards lpg consumption we recommend among different policy options a customization of energy price subsidization policies especially on lpg to reduce the unintended beneficiary dilemma or spillover effect of current government policy other policies such as intensification of energy conservation programs and market entry of independent power trading companies to enhance energy service delivery through competition are also discussed

forecasting wheat exports do exchange rates matter a vector autoregression is fit to recent u s data on wheat prices wheat export sales wheat export shipments and exchange rates forecast error decompositions and out of sample forecasts indicate that exchange rates have little influence on wheat sales and shipments

on the casual relationship between government expenditures and national income a research strategy is suggested that separates the issue of inference from the problems of prediction or of quantitative policy analysis of an empirical parametric model and illustrates a new methodology that enables this in a test for prima facie causality unlike the conventional parametric test the more powerful multiple rank f test is invariant to monotonic transformations of the variables and independent of the error distribution employing this test the wagnerian hypothesis supported by conventional parametric analysis is rejected and the conventional keynesian theory is accepted copyright 1990 by mit press

energy consumption and energy r d in oecd perspectives from oil prices and economic growth abstract we estimate the short run and long run elasticities of various types of energy consumption and energy r d to changes in oil prices and income of the 20 oecd countries over the period of 1980 2010 using the nerlove partial adjustment model npam we find negative income elasticity for coal consumption but positive income elasticity for oil and gas consumption suggesting the importance of economic growth in encouraging the usage of cleaner energy from coal to oil and gas by introducing time dummies into the regressions we show that climatic mitigation policies are able to promote the usage of cleaner energies through the dynamic linkages between energy consumption and energy r d we find that fossil fuel consumption promotes fossil fuel r d and fossil fuel r d in turn drives its own consumption renewable energy r d which is more responsive to economic growth reduces fossil fuel consumption and hence fossil fuel r d

short and long run elasticities in energy demand a cointegration approach abstract short and long run energy demand elasticities are estimated on danish annual data for 1948 1990 energy consumption the real price of energy and real gdp appear to be non stationary variables cointegration and error correction methods are therefore applied all estimated parameters have the expected signs and magnitudes and no evidence is found of a structural break in energy demand caused by the increases in real energy prices since 1973 74

state gasoline consumption in the usa an econometric analysis abstract this paper examines the determinants of state gasoline consumption per household in the usa using pooled time series cross section data for the period 1966 1980 it was found that gasoline price fuel efficiency of vehicle stock percentage of population in metropolitan areas and non automobile transport modes have negative effects on consumption while per capita income number of vehicles non agricultural employment per household age 18 44 warm weather visits by out of state automobiles and share of buses and trucks have positive effects on consumption holding constant the size of vehicle stock and its fuel efficiency characteristics the short run price elasticity of gasoline was found to be 0 321 for the period 1966 1973 and 0 106 for the period 1974 1980 it was also found that gasoline demand experienced a temporary shift both in the intercept and in the price coefficient during the shortages of 1974 and 1979 and had undergone a permanent shift in the same parameters during the post embargo period

evaluating the integration of contiguous discontinuous markets this paper applies the concepts of structural models of markets market integration and market discontinuity to show that discontinuous markets alter the integration characteristics of continuous markets when analyzing systems of contiguous markets some of which are discontinuous it appears that the continuous markets are less well integrated when the discontinuous markets are operating than when they are not operating

the dynamics of fertility family planning and female education in a developing economy unlike most empirical works on fertility analysis this study is the first attempt to analyse the dynamics of fertility and its determinants with a particular focus on the role played by female education and family planning programmes in the context of a traditional society the analysis is based on the application of the following dynamic time series techniques in a multivariate context cointegration vector error correction modelling and variance decompositions these dynamic tools are recently developed and hitherto untried in fertility analysis in the context of a poor developing economy such as india the results based on the above most recently developed methodology broadly indicate that in the complex dynamic interactions the importance of conventional structural hypothesis as a granger causal factor in bringing fertility down in the longer term cannot be denied however overall in the short to long term the findings appear to be more consistent with the recent ideational hypothesis

estimating energy and oil demand functions a study of thirteen developing countries abstract in this paper we attempt to identify some of the factors that have determined the level and pattern of energy demand in developing countries during the 1970s and early 1980s aggregate oil and energy demanding functions are constructed for a selection of oil importing countries and oil exporting countries the results show a strong link between income and aggregate energy demand conversely the price elasticity of energy demand is low both in the short run and the long run oil demand behaviour is more complex oil products can be rationed or domestic energy production can affect oil demand nonetheless the income elasticity remains close to one in most countries and is well above one for some

demand for gasoline in the gcc an application of pooling and testing procedures the structure of gasoline demand in the gcc countries was analysed the aim was to estimate price and income elasticities both for the short and long run it was found that gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to both price and income for both the short and long run when gcc countries were divided into two groups based on their pricing policies it was found that the group with the free market approach and higher reliance on market forces gave larger price elasticities and smaller income elasticities in both the short run and long run

applying tradable permits to biodiversity conservation effects of space dependent conservation benefits and cost heterogeneity on habitat allocation this paper is concerned with the cost effective allocation of habitat for species under spatio temporally heterogeneous economic development to address the dynamic dimension of the problem we consider tradable development rights as the instrument of choice a particular challenge in applying tradable development rights is that the conservation benefit of an individual habitat patch depends on its spatial relationship with other habitat patches and thus is an emergent rather than a fixed property we analyse with a conceptual model the spatial and temporal dynamics of habitats in a region under a tradable development rights market that takes spatial interaction of habitats explicitly into account in our analysis two different outcomes may emerge depending on the levels of spatial interaction and cost heterogeneity an ordered structure where habitat patches are clustered in space and are stable over time and a disordered structure where habitat patches are scattered in space and subject to high turnover of destruction and recreation a high level of spatial interaction or a low level of cost heterogeneity favours an ordered structure while a low level of spatial interaction or a high level of cost heterogeneity favours a disordered structure

tradable set aside requirements tsars conserving spatially dependent environmental amenities land conversion patterns can conflict with endangered species protection by fragmenting the landscape incentive mechanisms can help mitigate the threat of habitat fragmentation by aggregating landowner conservation decisions across the landscape the optimal conservation strategy for endangered species can target the most connected habitat cluster as an initial starting point and then expand the conservation patch to maximize connectivity herein we present an incentive mechanism the tradable set aside requirements tsars designed to target the low cost contiguous conservation landscape and share the burden of conservation among landowners in the lab we examine the performance of two land use conservation policies tsars and the tsars combined with an agglomeration bonus evaluated by economic and biological measures of efficiency we find that tsars relative to a command and control policy increases patch size and habitat connectivity within the landscape additionally combining tsars with the agglomeration bonus increases biological efficiency habitat connectivity and patch size within the landscape but at a price higher opportunity cost tsars with the agglomeration bonus can be more cost effective than a tsars only policy for species sensitive to large core habitat requirements and landscape connectivity

gasoline prices gasoline consumption and new vehicle fuel economy evidence for a large sample of countries abstract countries differ considerably in terms of the price drivers pay for gasoline this paper uses data for 132 countries for the period 1995 2008 to investigate the implications of these differences for the consumption of gasoline for road transport to address the potential for simultaneity bias we use both a country s oil reserves and the international crude oil price as instruments for a country s average gasoline pump price we obtain estimates of the long run price elasticity of gasoline demand of between 0 2 and 0 5 using newly available data for a sub sample of 43 countries we also find that higher gasoline prices induce consumers to substitute to vehicles that are more fuel efficient with an estimated elasticity of 0 2 despite the small size of our elasticity estimates there is considerable scope for low price countries to achieve gasoline savings and vehicle fuel economy improvements via reducing gasoline subsidies and or increasing gasoline taxes

energy models for demand forecasting a review abstract energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation be it social economic or environment in the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security energy is linked to industrial production agricultural output health access to water population education quality of life etc energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources during the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs in this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models traditional methods such as time series regression econometric arima as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic genetic algorithm and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management support vector regression ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting bottom up models such as markal and leap are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management

an empirical analysis of gasoline demand in denmark using cointegration techniques abstract danish time series data covering the period 1948 1991 are used in order to estimate short run and long run elasticities in gasoline demand a cointegration test for a stable long run relationship between the variables in the model proves to be positive showing a smaller value of the long run price elasticity than often quoted in empirical studies of gasoline demand finally an error correction model is estimated

is the price effect on fuel consumption symmetric some evidence from an empirical study abstract we generally consider that the price elasticity of the energy demand is quite small but it appears that strong increases in gasoline price lead to modifications in consumer behaviors the high volatility of petroleum prices and the strong increases since the beginning of 2000 justify an analysis of price effects on gasoline consumption we estimate the effects of price variations on gasoline consumption in the united states and india we use a co integration modelling to test for long run relationship between gasoline consumption income price and vehicle ownership in the two countries we use an error correction model to test for short run prices effects and more precisely for asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in gasoline prices the main conclusions are the following concerning the united states the long term price elasticity is relatively high for an industrialised country because gasoline taxes are low but we show that households are more sensitive to a price increase than a price decrease about india price elasticity in the long run is quite high but is quite small in the short run it is not surprising for an emergent country it seems that there is no asymmetric effect of price variations on gasoline consumption

empirical assessment of the determinants of road energy demand in greece this paper attempts to cast light on the determinants of road energy demand in greece for this purpose we used cointegration techniques and vector autoregression var analysis in order to capture short run and long run dynamics for gasoline and diesel demand respectively from the empirical analysis that covers the period 1978 2003 we find that in the long run gasoline energy demand appears to be price and income inelastic while diesel demand appears to be price inelastic and income elastic we also found that the absence of close substitutes in the road sector denotes the low level of energy switching in greece

validating energy oriented cge models although cge models have received heavy usage they are often criticized as being insufficiently validated key parameters are often not econometrically estimated and the performance of the model as a whole is rarely checked against historical outcomes as a consequence questions frequently arise as to how much faith one can put in cge results in this paper we employ a novel approach to the validation of a widely utilized global cge model gtap e by comparing the variance of model generated petroleum price distributions driven by historical demand and supply shocks to the model with observed five year moving average price distributions we conclude that energy demand in gtap e is far too price elastic over this time frame after incorporating the latest econometric estimates of energy demand and supply elasticities we revisit the validation question and find the model to perform more satisfactorily as a further check we compare a deterministic global general equilibrium simulation based on historical realizations over the 2001 2006 period during which petroleum prices rose sharply along with growing global energy demands as anticipated by the stochastic simulations the revised model parameters perform much better than the original gtap e parameters in this global general equilibrium context

inflation and the distribution of price changes across markets a causal analysis recent advances in time series methodology are applied to the investigation of causal relationships between monthly changes in the consumer price index and changes in its dispersion across different consumption categories this dispersion is associated with the degree to which relative prices are changing past inflation rates seem useful in forecasting changes in relative prices but not vice versa there is also a significant contemporaneous correlation between these series hence it is concluded that fluctuations in the inflation rate help cause fluctuations in relative prices but not vice versa unless the entire effect occurs within a month the analysis also serves to illustrate a new way to implement the granger causality concept

economic insights in ecological compensations market analysis with an empirical application to the finnish economy abstract biodiversity is decreasing at an alarming rate current policies focus on the most valuable species and habitats but cannot stop the degradation occurring in less valuable habitats one solution is offsetting the loss of biodiversity caused by development projects the basic idea of biodiversity offsetting is simple a developer must provide an improvement in biodiversity so that the lost ecological value is compensated for a banking mechanism for offsetting entails a third party providing offsets for developers to purchase and thus an offset market emerges we develop an equilibrium model to analyse the offset markets and apply the model to the finnish economy and three selected boreal habitats we examine how the market depends on trading ratios the presence of an intermediary and the realization of risks associated with uncertainty an intermediary can facilitate the market participants meeting each other with minimal transaction costs and safeguard against risks the results show that the size of the offset markets could potentially be quite considerable and providing offsets could be a profitable business for landowners in finland the outcome of the restoration investment and a possible time delay between biodiversity losses and gains impact the trading ratios and thus have a major impact on the market equilibrium an intermediary may significantly decrease the costs of compensation for developers provided that it can provide mature offsets when needed

the rapid growth of opec s domestic oil consumption abstract opec s domestic oil consumption has increased seven fold in 40 years to 8 5 million barrels per day mbd they consume almost as much oil as china this constitutes one fourth of their production such rapid growth in consumption 5 1 annually faster than their income growth of 3 1 will challenge opec s ability to increase their oil exports which are relied upon in long term world oil projections by the international energy agency iea us department of energy doe eia and british petroleum bp however these institutions assume unprecedented slowdowns in opec oil consumption to less than 2 in the future allowing them to project increases in opec oil exports with only modest increases in production we analyze 1971 2010 data econometrically with panel co integration methods we estimate that the income elasticity of consumption is about 1 for energy and oil this means that opec s energy and oil consumption will grow as rapidly as their income hence continued high growth rates for domestic oil consumption are more likely than the unprecedented slowdowns projected by iea doe eia and bp adding an extra 6 mbd of opec consumption in 2030 this will have major implications for opec production and export levels and for world oil prices

electricity demand and conservation potential in the chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry newhuadu business school research fund ministry of education foundation 10jzd0018 10jbg013 china sustainable energy program g 1103 13921 national social science foundation 09zd050

disaggregate analysis of the demand for gasoline in this paper we adopt a disaggregate approach to modelling the components of gasoline demand gasoline demand in our model is viewed as the outcome of the fol lowing household decisions vehicle holdings number and type and vehicle usage non discretionary and discretionary usage modelling gasoline demand in this way correctly specifies gasoline as an input into the production of transportation services and allows for the interdependence between household decisions on vehicle holdings and usage moreover estimation of the components of gasoline demand allows policy makers to identify the means by which individuals will respond to policy changes this leads to more effective policies designed to reduce gasoline consumption we use this model to estimate price and fuel efficiency elasticities of vehicle usage and gasoline demand

on the variable elasticity of the demand for gasoline the case of the usa this paper tests the variable elasticity of the demand for gasoline by applying the well known box cox extended autoregressive bcea model of savin and white this model can simultaneously test for functional form and autocorrelation in a time series regression major findings are the log linear form chosen a priori in most of previous studies can be rejected in favour of the bcea model long run price elasticities varied from 1 118 in 1973 to 0 290 in 1981 and long run income elasticities declined consistently from 0 944 in 1960 to 0 452 in 1985 these findings have policy implications for more accurate forecast of gasoline demand gasoline taxes energy conservation and others

how price inelastic is demand for gasoline in fuel subsidizing economies abstract in recent years governments that have historically subsidized domestic fuel consumption face an ever growing challenge in maintaining fuel subsidies and have embarked on subsidy reform this paper estimates the price and income elasticity of demand for gasoline in countries where fuel prices are government subsidized we make use of biennial panel road sector data for 32 countries over the 1998 2010 period and find demand for gasoline to be price inelastic both in the short run and long run we estimate the short run price and income elasticities at 0 05 and 0 16 and the long run price and income elasticities at 0 25 and 0 81 respectively it is our contention that concerned governments should play an active role in identifying and committing to a road map to progressively abandoning fuel subsidies they should also not be discouraged by relatively small consumption corrections in the short run a reduction in subsidies can eventually release considerable amount of resources for more crucial and potentially growth enhancing public services such as education and health

adding realism to the agglomeration bonus how endogenous land returns affect habitat fragmentation abstract the agglomeration bonus has been shown to be a potentially successful policy to reunite fragmented habitat and increase conservation enrollment in laboratory testbed experiments yet one key criticism has been that land prices have been assumed exogenous and fixed in these experiments in the field voluntary conservation enrollment by landowners will likely affect the value of the surrounding land this endogeneity of land values suggests a discrepancy between results from laboratory experiments and true landowner decisions under a given policy we address this concern by using an experimental design that accounts for the endogenous effect on surrounding land values from habitat conservation based on estimated returns from an actual landscape in eastern wyoming as a case study we show that without incorporating endogenous land values traditional laboratory experiments likely will underestimate the amount of habitat fragmentation resulting from basic conservation policies without agglomeration bonuses we also find that a low cost agglomeration bonus can work to reunite this fragmented habitat even under endogenous land value conditions our research indicates that through voluntary conservation decisions by private landowners a more cost effective bonus scheme can create contiguous habitat across privately held land even when incorporating realistic endogenous land values

estimating the demand for gasoline in developing countries senegal abstract this paper estimates the aggregate demand for gasoline in senegal from 1970 to 2008 the long term and short term elasticities of demand with respect to gasoline prices and income are of paramount interest in this study in senegal rising food prices unemployment and shortage of electric supply are always associated with the spiking cost of world oil prices to understand the external shocks of world oil price and demand for gasoline in senegal this study tested a log linear model against the linear model of the demand for oil function with lagged dependent variables as an explanatory variable here the linear specification of the demand for oil is rejected in this study in favor of the log linear the natural log transformation is typical when using high frequency data and significantly reduces skewness and kurtosis generally in this study i found that short run elasticity is smaller than long run elasticity and gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to both price and income for both the short and long runs in senegal this is why researcher like moosa posits that this assertion can be rationalised on the grounds that oil is such an important commodity that does not have close substitutes at least for its uses 1998 p 3

relative prices and money a vector autoregression on brazilian data recent data on brazilian agricultural prices industrial prices and money supply are analyzed in a vector autoregression the empirical findings show strong one way granger type causality from money supply to agricultural prices while feedback is observed between industrial prices and money supply under the usual monetarist ordering of contemporaneous innovation covariance agricultural prices do not adjust faster than industrial prices to a shock in the money supply

gasoline demand the case of saudi arabia this paper specifies a partial adjustment model to estimate the demand for gasoline in saudi arabia for the period 1970 1985 it is found that the demand for gasoline is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run as compared to other countries the kingdom s gasoline demand elasticities more closely resemble those of industrial countries

measuring global gasoline and diesel price and income elasticities abstract price and income elasticities of transport fuel demand have numerous applications they help forecast increases in fuel consumption as countries get richer they help develop appropriate tax policies to curtail consumption help determine how the transport fuel mix might evolve and show the price response to a fuel disruption given their usefulness it is understandable why hundreds of studies have focused on measuring such elasticities for gasoline and diesel fuel consumption in this paper i focus my attention on price and income elasticities in the existing studies to see what can be learned from them i summarize the elasticities from these historical studies i use statistical analysis to investigate whether income and price elasticities seem to be constant across countries with different incomes and prices although income and price elasticities for gasoline and diesel fuel are not found to be the same at high and low incomes and at high and low prices patterns emerge that allow me to develop suggested price and income elasticities for gasoline and diesel demand for over one hundred countries i adjust these elasticities for recent fuel mix policies and suggest an agenda of future research topics

conserving biodiversity with tradable permits under changing conservation costs and habitat restoration time lags abstract tradable permits are a common environmental policy instrument that has recently been applied also to the conservation of biodiversity biodiversity conservation differs in many respects to the classical applications of tradable permits like emissions control one particularity is that even if the permit system maintains a constant total amount of species habitat habitat turnover the destruction of a habitat and restoration elsewhere affects the ecosystem another particularity is that the restoration of habitats often takes much time leading to time lags between the initiation of restoration activities and the time when restored habitat is available for trading we use an agent based model of a tradable permit market to study the influence of heterogeneous and dynamic conservation costs and habitat restoration time lags on key variables of the market such as the costs incurred to the market participants and the amount of habitat turnover our results show that there may be trade offs between these key variables we also find that restoration time lags can lead to fluctuations in permit prices that reduce the efficiency of the permit market we conclude that temporal lags deserve a careful analysis when implementing tradable permit systems for the preservation of natural habitats and biodiversity