the generalized multinomial logit model accounting for scale and coefficient heterogeneity the mixed or heterogeneous multinomial logit mixl model has become popular in a number of fields especially marketing health economics and industrial organization in most applications of the model the vector of consumer utility weights on product attributes is assumed to have a multivariate normal mvn distribution in the population thus some consumers care more about some attributes than others and the iia property of multinomial logit mnl is avoided i e segments of consumers will tend to switch among the subset of brands that possess their most valued attributes the mixl model is also appealing because it is relatively easy to estimate recently however some researchers have argued that the mvn is a poor choice for modelling taste heterogeneity they argue that much of the heterogeneity in attribute weights is accounted for by a pure scale effect i e across consumers all attribute weights are scaled up or down in tandem this implies that choice behaviour is simply more random for some consumers than others i e holding attribute coefficients fixed the scale of their error term is greater this leads to a scale heterogeneity mnl model s mnl here we develop a generalized multinomial logit model g mnl that nests s mnl and mixl by estimating the s mnl mixl and g mnl models on 10 data sets we provide evidence on their relative performance we find that models that account for scale heterogeneity i e g mnl or s mnl are preferred to mixl by the bayes and consistent akaike information criteria in all 10 data sets accounting for scale heterogeneity enables one to account for extreme consumers who exhibit nearly lexicographic preferences as well as consumers who exhibit very random behaviour in a sense we formalize below

the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in g 11 countries revisited abstract this paper explores whether energy conservation policies can be implemented in countries with the same level of development that is is restraining energy consumption without compromising economic growth feasible in all industrialized countries a new granger non causality testing procedure developed by toda and yamamoto 1995 journal of econometrics 66 225 250 is applied to re investigate the relationship if any between energy consumption and income in 11 major industrialized countries the results clearly do not support the view that energy consumption and income are neutral with respect to each other except in the case of the united kingdom germany and sweden where a neutral relationship is found bi directional causality in the united states and uni directional running from energy consumption to gdp in canada belgium the netherlands and switzerland are found this indicates that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the latter five countries further the causality relationship appears to be uni directional but reversed for france italy and japan which implies that in these three countries energy conservation may be viable without being detrimental to economic growth

using choice experiments to estimate consumer valuation the role of experimental design and attribute information loads with fixed dimensionality of choice experiments ces previous simulation results show that d optimal design with correct a priori information generates more accurate valuation in the absence of a priori information random designs and designs incorporate attribute interactions result in more precise valuation estimates in this article monte carlo simulations demonstrate that the performances of different design strategies are affected by attribute information loads in ces consumer valuation estimates in simulation settings vary with the number of attributes

a note on the causal relationship between energy and gdp in taiwan abstract this paper re examines the causality between energy consumption and gdp by using updated taiwan data for the period 1954 1997 as a secondary contribution we investigate the causal relationship between gdp and the aggregate as well as several disaggregate categories of energy consumption including coal oil natural gas and electricity applying granger s technique we find bidirectional causality between total energy consumption and gdp we find further that different directions of cause exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption

conditional convergence in us disaggregated petroleum consumption at the sector level abstractwe test for convergence in disaggregated petroleum consumption at the sector level for the united states using the recently proposed garch unit root test suitable for high frequency data we find evidence of convergence for just over half of the series including total petroleum consumption in each sector and approximately three quarters of the disaggregated petroleum consumption series in transportation

income and emission a panel data based cointegration analysis this paper presents the results of an investigation of the causality issue of incomeemission relationship based on time series econometric techniques of unit root test cointegration and related error correction model for a panel data set here the nature of causality between per capita co2 emission pcco2 and per capita gdp pcgdp has been examined using a cross country panel data set covering 88 countries for the period 1960 90 using the panel unit root test procedure of im et al 1997 ips we have found that the hypothesis of unit root i e non stationarity of the time series of pcgdp and pcco2 can not be rejected for individual country groups as both the variables are found to follow i 1 process we next have performed the panel data co integration test and finally we have estimated the ecm for these country groups for which significant income emission cointegration was obtained to explore the nature of dynamics implicit in the given panel data set our findings suggest that there is more or less a bi directional causal relationship between income pcgdp and co2 emission pcco2 for africa central america america as a whole eastern europe western europe europe as a whole and the world as a whole that means the movement of the one variable directly affects the other variable through a feedback system thus the policy makers should be cautious to make proper decision about the control of emission level

causal relationship between energy consumption and gdp growth revisited a dynamic panel data approach abstract this paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and gdp for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002 based on the income levels defined by the world bank the data are divided into four categories low income group lower middle income group upper middle income group and high income group we employ the gmm sys approach for the estimation of the panel var model in each of the four groups afterwards the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained we discover a in the low income group there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth b in the middle income groups lower and upper middle income groups economic growth leads energy consumption positively c in the high income group countries economic growth leads energy consumption negatively after further in depth analysis of energy related data the results indicate that in the high income group there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of co2 however in the upper middle income group countries after the energy crisis the energy efficiency declines and the release of co2 rises since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries

do investors value smooth performance abstract this paper presents empirical evidence that cash flow volatility is negatively valued by investors the magnitude of the effect is substantial with a 1 increase in cash flow volatility resulting in approximately a 0 15 decrease in firm value we show that this increase however is not associated with earnings smoothing resulting from managers accrual estimates our results are consistent with a preference by the market for less volatile cash flows and suggest that managers efforts to produce smooth financial statements add value but only via the cash component of earnings

macro economic and development indexes and iso14001 certificates a cross national analysis abstract environmental management systems emss implemented according to the iso14001 standard have been examined by many authors especially focussing on its impact at the firm level however only a few papers have investigated the impact of iso14001 from a country perspective this paper aims to contribute to bridging this gap the aim is to study the relation between iso14001 growth and the trend in selected macro economic and development indexes by applying the growth mixture model to a panel of 73 countries for the period 1999 2012 we assess the following hypotheses a the increase in numbers of iso14001 certifications corresponds to an increase in economic indexes b the increase in iso14001 corresponds to an increase in development indexes c the trends of iso14001 adoption and macro economic indexes confirm the relationship described by the environmental kuznets curve the results confirm a positive relation among the trends of some variables such as iso14001 and gross domestic product gdp iso14001 and industry value added while no significant results were found when observing the relation between iso14001 and the selected development indexes in addition using the industry added value as the variable to measure economic development our results support the theory of the environmental kuznets curve

effect of experimental design on choice based conjoint valuation estimates in this article we investigate the effect of several commonly used experimental designs on willingness to pay in a monte carlo environment where true utility parameters are known all experimental designs considered in this study generated unbiased valuation estimates however random designs or designs that explicitly incorporated attribute interactions generated more precise valuation estimates than main effects only designs a key result of our analysis is that a large sample size can substitute for a poor experimental design overall our results indicate that certain steps can be taken to achieve a manageably sized experimental design without sacrificing the credibility of welfare estimates

willingness to pay estimation with choice based conjoint analysis addressing extreme response behavior with individually adapted designs the increasing consideration of behavioral aspects in operations management models has prompted greater use of choice based conjoint cbc studies in operations research such studies can elicit consumers willingness to pay wtp a core input for many optimization models however optimization models can yield valid results only if consumers wtp is estimated accurately a simulation study and two field studies show that extreme response behavior in cbc studies such that consumers always or never choose the no purchase option harms the validity of wtp estimates reporting the share of consumers who always and never select the no purchase option allows for detecting extreme response behavior this study suggests an individually adapted design that avoids extreme response behavior and thus significantly improves wtp estimation accuracy

the dynamic links between energy consumption economic growth financial development and trade in china fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis abstract this study investigates the relationship between energy use and economic growth by incorporating financial development international trade and capital as important factors of production function in case of china over the period of 1971 2011 the ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration was applied to examine long run relationship among the series while stationarity properties of the variables was tested by applying structural break test our empirical evidence confirmed long run relationship among the variables the results showed that energy use financial development capital exports imports and international trade have positive impact on economic growth the granger causality analysis revealed that unidirectional causal relationship running from energy use to economic growth financial development and energy use granger cause each other there is bidirectional causality between international trade and energy use the feedback relation exists between financial development and international trade there is also bidirectional causality exists between capital and energy demand financial development and economic growth and international trade and economic growth this paper makes significant contribution in energy economics and opens up new direction for policy makers to explore new and alternative sources of energy which would be helpful in meeting the rising demand of energy due to sustained rate of economic growth

disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in south africa abstract this paper tries to assess the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in south africa by undertaking a cointegration analysis using annual data from 1980 to 2005 we also investigate the causal relationships between the various disaggregate forms of energy consumption and industrial production our results imply that industrial production and employment are long run forcing variables for electricity consumption applying the toda h y yamamoto t 1995 statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes journal of econometrics 66 225 250 technique to granger causality we find bi directional causality between oil consumption and industrial production for the other forms of energy consumption there is evidence in support of the energy neutrality hypothesis there is also evidence of causality between employment and electricity consumption as well as coal consumption causing employment

the influence of design dimensions on stated choices in an environmental context discrete choice experiments are increasingly used in the context of environmental valuation however there is still little known about the influence of the complexity of the choice task on model outcomes in this paper we investigate task complexity in terms of the design dimensionality of the choice experiment by systematically varying the number of choice sets alternatives attributes and levels as well as the level range we largely follow a design of designs approach originally introduced in transportation first we analyse the influence of the design dimensionality on participants dropout behaviour finding that the probability to drop out of the survey is influenced by socio demographic characteristics and increases with the number of choice sets attributes as well as with designs having five alternatives second we investigate the impact of the design dimensions on stated choices by estimating a multinomial logit model and heteroskedastic logit models results show that the error term variance is influenced by socio demographic characteristics as well as by all design dimensions moreover we find that accounting for the impact of the design dimension on the error variance does not significantly change willingness to pay estimates

disaggregated energy consumption and gdp in taiwan a threshold co integration analysis abstract energy consumption growth is much higher than economic growth for taiwan in recent years worsening its energy efficiency this paper provides a solid explanation by examining the equilibrium relationship between gdp and disaggregated energy consumption under a non linear framework the threshold co integration test developed with asymmetric dynamic adjusting processes proposed by hansen and seo hansen b e seo b 2002 testing for two regime threshold cointegration in vector error correction models journal of econometrics 110 293 318 is applied non linear co integrations between gdp and disaggregated energy consumptions are confirmed except for oil consumption the two regime vector error correction models vecm show that the adjustment process of energy consumption toward equilibrium is highly persistent when an appropriately threshold is reached there is mean reverting behavior when the threshold is reached making aggregate and disaggregated energy consumptions grow faster than gdp in taiwan

natural gas trade and sustainable growth empirical evidence from the top gas consumers of the developing world abstractnatural gas is the key non renewable source of energy for a low carbon economy the research applies heterogeneous panel techniques to investigate the impact of natural gas consumption on economic growth across a panel of top 15 natural gas consumers of the developing world we establish long run dynamics with cross sectional dependence and heterogeneity across the sample countries the long run output elasticities suggest that the natural gas consumption and trade variables have significant positive effect on the output in a panel of developing economies further we establish feedback relationship among gas consumption output and trade in the short run given the significance of natural gas as the low emission source of energy we suggest governments and policy advisers of these major natural gas consumers to focus on developing pipeline infrastructure for adequate supply reforming natural gas sector with a competitive price structure to combat excess demand in individual natural gas market w

energy consumption prices and economic growth in three ssa countries a comparative study in this paper we examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in three sub saharan african countries namely south africa kenya and congo drc we incorporate prices as an intermittent variable in a bivariate setting between energy consumption and economic growth thereby creating a simple trivariate framework using the ardl bounds testing procedure we find that the causality between energy consumption and economic growth varies significantly across the countries under study the results show that for south africa and kenya there is a unidirectional causal flow from energy consumption to economic growth however for congo drc it is economic growth that drives energy consumption these findings have important policy implications insofar as energy conservation policies are concerned in the case of congo drc for example the implementation of energy conservation policies may not significantly affect economic growth because the country s economy is not entirely energy dependent however for south africa and kenya there is a need for more energy supply augmentations in order to cope with the long run energy demand in the short run however the two countries should explore more efficient and cost effective sources of energy in order to address the energy dependency problem

the dynamics of natural gas consumption and gdp in bangladesh abstract reserves of natural gas in bangladesh are very large and total demand has increased secularly in recent years this paper examines the causal relationship between the consumption of natural gas and gdp in bangladesh over the period 1980 to 2010 we find that there is a positive unidirectional causality running from gdp to natural gas consumption movements in gdp affect the consumption of natural gas but not vice versa while our results rest on several statistical assumptions they support the pursuit of policies that are in line with energy conservation implementing these policies will be of particular significance in light of the fact that bangladesh s current reserves of natural gas will not meet its current level of consumption demand beyond the next two decades

effects of financial development economic growth and trade on electricity consumption evidence from post fukushima japan abstract this study examines the long run and short run effects of financial development economic growth export imports and capital on the japanese energy predicaments as a result of the foregoing energy crisis in the country to ensure a robust outcome the study applied the extended cobb douglas production function and used time series data from 1970 to 2012 following to this structural break unit root test ardl bounds test approach to cointegration and the johansen cointegration test were applied in addition the vecm granger causality framework was used in determining the causal relationship between the variables the findings of the study establish that in the long run a 1 rise in financial development economic growth exports and imports in japan will exert a significant pressure on the japanese electricity consumption by 0 2429 0 5040 0 0921 and 0 2193 respectively however capital was found to decline energy consumption in all material respect in the short run the study discovered how a 1 rise in the dynamics of financial development economic growth exports and imports to add to the japanese electricity predicaments by 0 2210 0 5840 0 0521 and 0 2031 respectively the existence of the feedback relationship between most of the variables was discovered while economic growth exports imports and trade openness were found to granger cause electricity consumption the study advocates the adoption of massive but competitive renewable energy system in japan how it should be done and why it should be done are carefully set by this study

what is the optimal design for lottery linked savings programmes in this article we determine the optimal design of lottery linked savings lls programmes lls vehicles such as lottery bonds are financial instruments that preserve depositors principal but provide randomized variable returns to these depositors through periodic lottery drawings in lieu of the regular coupon payments traditionally received by bondholders this type of asset is very popular in europe we note that the framing of lls instruments is linked to their popularity and we attempt to elucidate that link and thereby determine the optimal structure of payments for lls programmes our goal is to frame lls programmes in a manner that both maximizes their investors satisfaction and preserves their ability to serve as inexpensive sources of capital for their issuers we demonstrate that the optimal pay off structure is characterized by a high level of skewness as investors are willing to accept a decrease in the small and medium prizes of the lottery in exchange for an increase in the grand pri

co2 emissions energy consumption trade and income a comparative analysis of china and india in order to prevent the destabilisation of the earth s biosphere co2 emissions must be reduced quickly and significantly the causes of co2 emissions by individual countries need to be apprehended in order to understand the processes required for reducing emissions around the globe china and india are the two largest transitional countries and growing economies but are in two entirely different categories in terms of structural changes in growth trade and energy use co2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels have significantly increased in the recent past this paper compares china and india using the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the ardl methodology to test the long and short run relationships between growth trade energy use and endogenously determined structural breaks the co2 emissions in china were influenced by per capita income structural changes and energy consumption a similar causal connection cannot be established for india with regard to structural changes and co2 emissions because india s informal economy is much larger than china s india possesses an extraordinarily large number of micro enterprises that are low energy consumers and not competitive enough to reach international markets understanding these contrasting scenarios is prerequisite to reaching an international agreement on climate change affecting these two countries

energy growth conundrum in energy exporting and importing countries evidence from heterogeneous panel methods robust to cross sectional dependence abstract this article uses the panel methods for energy exporting and importing countries that discuss the heterogeneity and cross sectional dependence in investigating the linkages between energy consumption and economic growth the findings of the study suggest that the energy consumption is an important input not only in the energy importing but also in energy exporting countries furthermore the results of the present paper suggest that the policy options should be different for the different countries in the back drop of heterogeneous slope coefficients

impacts of renewable energy consumption on the german economic growth evidence from combined cointegration test abstract germany is the largest economy in europe and the leading renewable energy user comparable to none in the entire of the european continents it is in reference to these developments that this study investigates whether the impacts of renewable energy have consolidated the economic growth prospects of the country to ensure this quarterly time series data from 1971q1 to 2013qiv was used the study employed the clemente montanes reyes detrended structural break test the bayer hanck combined cointegration test and the ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration in addition the causality analysis was observed using vecm granger causality framework the results confirmed the existence of cointegration among the variables the results show that renewable energy consumption in germany consolidates the country s economic growth prospects to the extend that a 1 increase in renewable energy consumption boosts german economic growth by 0 2194 in addition to that a 1 increase in capital lead to the rise in economic growth by 1 1320 while a 0 5125 increase in economic growth is due to 1 increase in labor productivity the causality analysis on the other hand revealed the existence of feedback effect between renewable energy consumption and economic growth while the relationship between renewable energy consumption and capital is found to be bidirectional and same inference was found to exist between capital and economic growth the study proposes solid mechanisms that will help in averting renewable energy market failure locally and internationally among others

carbon emissions energy consumption and economic growth an aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the indian economy abstract this study investigates the long and short run relationships among carbon emissions energy consumption and economic growth in india at the aggregated and disaggregated levels during 1971 2014 the autoregressive distributed lag model is employed for the cointegration analyses and the vector error correction model is applied to determine the direction of causality between variables results show that a long run cointegration relationship exists and that the environmental kuznets curve is validated at the aggregated and disaggregated levels furthermore energy total energy gas oil electricity and coal consumption has a positive relationship with carbon emissions and a feedback effect exists between economic growth and carbon emissions thus energy efficient technologies should be used in domestic production to mitigate carbon emissions at the aggregated and disaggregated levels the present study provides policy makers with new directions in drafting comprehensive policies with lasting impacts on the economy energy consumption and environment towards sustainable development

energy consumption and economic activities in iran abstract the causal relationship between overall gdp industrial and agricultural value added and consumption of different kinds of energy are investigated using vector error correction model for the case of iran within 1967 2003 a long run unidirectional relationship from gdp to total energy and bidirectional relationship between gdp and gas as well as gdp and petroleum products consumption for the whole economy was discovered causality is running from value added to total energy electricity gas and petroleum products consumption and from gas consumption to value added in industrial sector the long run bidirectional relations hold between value added and total energy electricity and petroleum products consumption in the agricultural sector the short run causality runs from gdp to total energy and petroleum products consumption and also industrial value added to total energy and petroleum products consumption in this sector

liquidity taxes and short term treasury yields this article investigates differences in yields on identical treasury notes and bills and shows that they reflect differences in liquidity immediacy risk and taxes it proposes an empirical measure for differences in the liquidity risk of notes and bills the volatility ofthe underlying rate times the ratio of bills turnover to notes turnover because differential taxes affect sellers but not buyers of bills and notes the results reject free of informational problems the hypothesis that the notes demand curve is horizontal note bill yield differences also decrease with inventories of notes the less liquid asset

the role of natural gas consumption in saudi arabia s output and its implication for trade and environmental quality abstract in this paper we examines the contribution of natural gas consumption in the real gdp of saudi arabia using long span and recent time series data over the period 1968 2016 in a multivariate framework which incorporates total trade as additional variable by using the autoregressive distributed lag method of cointegration we find long run a cointegration equilibrium relationship between ngc total trade and real gdp with a positive significant relationship among the variables by applying the toda and yamamoto method to granger causality testing we find a one sided causality running from ngc to real gdp while between real gdp and trade ngc and total trade total trade and real gdp are without a feedback from our empirical results we suggest that natural gas conservation policy would hurt the demand for natural gas hinder total trade and thus retard domestic output however in the near future it is possible for the saudi arabian government to meet energy needs and enhance total trade by adopting renewable energy alternatives to natural gas results however upon which the policy implications are inferred should be applied with caution as they may not be feasible enough to justify the adoption of unappealing energy policy choice for saudi arabia

a unified beta pricing theory abstract this paper derives ross s mutual fund separation theory and a new equilibrium version of ross s arbitrage pricing theory as special cases of a general theory the paper also reveals that the two theories are identical in their predictions of asset prices and portfolio returns the capital asset pricing model a restricted case of the mutual fund separation theory receives special treatment

rational choice under an imperfect ability to choose we consider an individual who lacks the information processing capacity required for a direct comparison of all feasible allocations instead of finding at once a best allocation the individual myopically adjusts his current allocation toward higher utility the individual makes adjustment errors inversely proportional to his ability to choose we compare the stationary state of this process with the standard model we see how an imperfect ability to choose modifies both positive and normative predictions of the standard model and how the standard model can be obtained from our more general one as the special case corresponding to perfect ability jel d 11

determinants of global natural gas consumption and import export flows abstract based on the data of the bp statistical review of world energy this paper constructs the consumption and import export of natural gas identities it discusses the drivers of changes in global natural gas consumption and trade flows from 2008 to 2015 using the extended logarithmic mean divisia index the results show that differences in the natural gas supply and demand across countries or regions as well as the distribution of energy between the domestic and international markets can be better explained when natural gas trade movements are considered by comparing the supply and consumption increment of natural gas this study finds that only the energy intensity economic growth and demographic effects are consistent with each other the changes in the impact of other effects mainly depend on storage variations and statistical errors in addition the primary drivers of the incremental changes in natural gas consumption vary in different countries they include production scale import scale export scale consumption structure proportion energy intensity economic growth and population and balance effects finally the consumption competitiveness of the liquefied natural gas significantly improved over the examined period

whatever the customer wants the customer gets exploring the gap between consumer preferences and default electricity products in germany abstract in liberalized electricity markets residential customers can choose their preferred provider and select among a variety of different electricity products including green power options successful product design and marketing strategies for green electricity may provide electricity providers with a competitive advantage while at the same time contributing to energy policy objectives this requires however a thorough understanding of customer preferences we investigate the relative importance of different product attributes in creating customer value and find that price and electricity mix are the two most important attributes the german electricity customers we surveyed in 2009 expressed an implicit willingness to pay a premium of about 16 for electricity from renewable sources we conclude that consumers are willing to pay a significant price premium for an upgrade from the current default electricity mix in germany to a more environmentally friendly default electricity mix and discuss implications for marketing strategy and energy policy our findings are based on a dataset of 4968 experimental choices made by 414 german residential consumers collected in a stated preference survey

the saving and investment nexus for china evidence from cointegration tests the saving and investment nexus as postulated by feldstein and horioka fh 1980 is revisited the saving investment correlation for china is estimated over the periods 1952 1998 and 1952 1994 the latter culminating in a period of fixed exchange rate regime amongst the key results it is found that saving and investment are correlated for china for both the period of the fixed exchange rate and the entire sample period with high saving investment correlation the results suggest that the chinese economy is in conformity with the fh hypothesis this is a valid outcome for in china capital mobility was fairly restricted over the 1952 1994 period as indicated by the relatively low foreign direct investment

energy consumption and gdp in developing countries a cointegrated panel analysis in this paper we re investigate the co movement and the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in 18 developing countries using data for the period 1975 to 2001 recently developed tests for the panel unit root heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based error correction models are employed the empirical results provide clear support of a long run cointegration relationship after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect the long run relationship is estimated using a full modified ols the evidence shows that long run and short run causalities run from energy consumption to gdp but not vice versa this result indicates that energy conservation may harm economic growth in developing countries regardless of being transitory or permanent

natural gas consumption and economic growth the role of foreign direct investment capital formation and trade openness in malaysia the objective of this paper is to reinvestigate the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth by including foreign direct investment capital and trade openness in malaysia for the period of 1971 2012 the structural break unit root test is employed to investigate the stationary properties of the series we have applied combined cointegration test to examine the relationship between the variables in the long run for robustness sake the ardl bounds testing method is also employed to test for a possible long run relationship in the presence of structural breaks we note the validity of cointegration between the variables natural gas consumption foreign direct investment capital formation and trade openness have positive influence on economic growth in malaysia the results support the presence of feedback hypothesis between natural gas consumption and economic growth foreign direct investment and economic growth and natural gas consumption and foreign direct investment the policy implications of these results are provided

trading as gambling this paper offers evidence from three different samples consistent with investors substituting between playing the lottery and gambling in financial markets in the united states increases in the jackpots of the multistate lotteries powerball and mega millions are associated with significant reductions in small trade participation in the stock market california based discount brokerage clients and german discount brokerage clients are significantly less likely to trade during weeks with larger lottery prizes in the california and german lotteries respectively variation in lottery prizes affects speculative trading in more lottery like securities such as individual stocks and options but not trading in bonds and mutual funds trading that is likely associated with long term savings motives such as trading in retirement accounts does not respond to lottery jackpots either the negative relation between trading activity and jackpots is stronger for individuals who are more likely to play the lottery this paper was accepted by brad barber finance

an investigation of co integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in taiwan applying hsiao a version of the granger causality method this paper examines the causality between energy and gnp and energy and employment by applying recently developed techniques of co integration and hsiao s version of the granger causality to taiwanese data for the 1955 1993 period the phillips perron tests reveal that the series with the exception of gnp are not stationary and therefore differencing is performed to secure stationarity the study finds causality running from gdp to energy consumption without feedback in taiwan it is also found that causality runs from gdp to energy but not vice versa

renewable and non renewable energy consumption growth nexus evidence from a panel error correction model abstract unlike previous renewable energy consumption growth studies this study examines the relationship between renewable and non renewable energy consumption and economic growth for 80 countries within a multivariate panel framework over the period 1990 2007 the pedroni 1999 2004 heterogeneous panel cointegration test show a long run equilibrium relationship between real gdp renewable energy consumption non renewable energy consumption real gross fixed capital formation and the labor force with the respective coefficient estimates positive and statistically significant there is little difference in the elasticity estimates with respect to renewable and non renewable energy consumption the results from the panel error correction model reveal bidirectional causality between renewable and non renewable energy consumption and economic growth in both the short and long run also there is bidirectional short run causality between renewable and non renewable energy consumption indicative of substitutability between the two energy sources

natural gas consumption and economic growth nexus is the 10th malaysian plan attainable within the limits of its resource abstract the 10th malaysia plan 10mp is a strategic plan focused on attaining a level of economic growth that will enable the country to attain a developed nation status by 2020 as a result of this ambitious plan this paper aims to investigate empirically if the nexus between natural gas consumption exports capital and labour could provide a clue to the possibilities of reaching this target the study applied time series data from 1971 to 2012 and used dual structural break tests to ensure robust result the bayer hanck cointegration johansen cointegration and the ardl bounds tests were applied the findings of the study reveal that economic growth does not granger cause natural gas consumption in malaysia however the results show that capital and export contribute 29 18 and 41 46 to the country s gdp after 20 04 and 42 29 of natural gas consumption respectively also it suggests that natural gas consumption has an indirect effect to the malaysian economic growth wherewithal labour was on the other hand found to have a minimal contribution to gdp the study proposes the efficient exploitation of natural gas reserves of the country a concerted effort to develop the labour force and ensure a realistic time for the plan among others

the effect of consumers real world choice sets on inferences from stated preference surveys for stated preference sp studies we develop a model that assesses the influence of choice set misspecification arising from the omission of perceived substitutes among real world alternatives in the same class of goods this problem is most likely to be present when individuals are allowed to select a no purchase option instead of being forced to choose from an explicit set of sp alternatives with hypothetical attribute levels a convenient feature of our model is that researchers do not need to know exactly which omitted real substitute the individual most prefers only the set of real substitutes that exists in our empirical illustration a comparison of rival models suggests researchers who overlook the presence of perceived real alternatives related to an sp experiment can end up with noticeably biased welfare estimates our more general model suggests that it may be prudent for future sp researchers to anticipate then test and possibly correct for distortions in utility parameter estimates that result from this problem

the impact of deal proneness on wtp estimates in incentive aligned value elicitation methods even after controlling for hypothetical biases some incentive aligned value elicitation methods still produce different willingness to pay wtp estimates in this study we compare wtp estimates from three incentive aligned value elicitation methods real choice experiment rce real double bounded dichotomous contingent valuation rcvm and becker degroot marschak auction bdm we find that participants aggressiveness in obtaining low prices i e deal proneness influences wtp estimates in the bdm auction but not those elicited from the rce and rcvm the participants with higher levels of deal proneness tend to submit lower bids in the bdm auction the discrepancies in wtp estimates between different incentive aligned procedures are narrower for participants with lower levels of deal proneness our results indicate that the bids in bdm auctions may be understated and the auction mechanism may induce the gambling behavior of people who are deal prone that is whether the bdm auction is truly incentive aligned is again called into question we also discuss the practical implications for food retailers

economic growth energy consumption financial development international trade and co2 emissions in indonesia this study examines the linkages among economic growth energy consumption financial development trade openness and co2 emissions over the period of 1975q1 2011q4 in the case of indonesia the stationary analysis is performed by using zivot andrews structural break unit root test and the ardl bounds testing approach for a long run relationship between the series in the presence of structural breaks the causal relation between the concerned variable is examined by the vecm granger causality technique and robustness of causal analysis is tested by innovative accounting approach iaa our results confirm that the variables are cointegrated it means that the long run relationship exists in the presence of structural break stemming in the series the empirical findings indicate that economic growth and energy consumption increases co2 emissions while financial development and trade openness compact it the vecm causality analysis has shown the feedback hypothesis between energy consumption and co2 emissions economic growth and co2 emissions are also interrelated i e bidirectional causality financial development granger causes co2 emissions the study opens up a new policy insights to control the environment from degradation by using energy efficient technologies financial development and trade openness can also play their role in improving the environmental quality

are investors rational choices among index funds s p 500 index funds represent one of the simplest vehicles for examining rational behavior they hold virtually the same securities yet their returns differ by more than 2 percent per year although the relative returns of alternative s p 500 funds are easily predictable the relationship between cash flows and performance is weaker than rational behavior would lead us to expect we show that selecting funds based on low expenses or high past returns outperforms the portfolio of index funds selected by investors our results exemplify the fact that in a market where arbitrage is not possible dominated products can prosper

energy conservation policies growth and trade performance evidence of feedback hypothesis in pakistan this study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and trade openness in pakistan by using the annual time series data for the period of 1973 2011 our main results show i the presence of long run link between energy consumption and trade performance ii positive impact of gross domestic product exports and imports on energy consumption iii bidirectional causal relationship between exports and energy consumption and also be tween imports and energy demand and iv bidirectional causality between gross domestic product and energy consumption points to the presence of feedback hypothesis in pakistan we therefore note that energy conservation policies will reduce the trade performance which in turn leads to the decline in economic growth in pakistan the present study may guide policymakers in formulating a conclusive energy and trade policies for sustainable growth for long span of time

causality between trade openness and energy consumption what causes what in high middle and low income countries abstract this paper explores the relationship between trade openness and energy consumption using data of 91 high middle and low income countries the study covers the period of 1980 2010 we have applied panel cointegration to examine long run relationship between the variables the direction of causal relationship between trade openness is investigated by applying homogenous non causality homogenous causality and heterogeneous causality tests our variables are integrated at i 1 confirmed by time series and panel unit root tests and cointegration is found between trade openness and energy consumption the relationship between trade openness and energy consumption is inverted u shaped in high income countries but u shaped in middle and low income countries the homogenous and non homogenous causality analysis reveals the bidirectional causality between trade openness and energy consumption this paper opens up new insights for policy makers to design a comprehensive economic trade and policies for sustainable economic growth in long run following heterogeneous causality findings

are shocks to natural gas consumption temporary or permanent evidence from a panel of u s states abstract this short communication examines whether or not u s natural gas consumption follows a stationary process unlike previous research that has focused on regional country or industrial sector based panel studies this study undertakes a sub national investigation of natural gas consumption for the 50 u s states levin et al 2002 im et al 2003 maddala and wu 1999 and hadri 2000 panel unit root and stationarity tests reveal that natural gas consumption is integrated of order one however once allowance is made for endogenously determined structural breaks the carrion i silvestre et al 2005 im et al 2005 and westerlund 2005 panel unit root and stationarity tests indicate that natural gas consumption is integrated of order zero discussion of the structural breaks is briefly surveyed in relation to the natural gas industry s response to legislative actions

the valuation of nonsystematic risks and the pricing of swedish lottery bonds swedish government lottery bonds have coupon payments determined by lottery they offer a unique opportunity to study a security with uncertain payoffs having a known observable distribution the risk associated with the lotteries is idiosyncratic by construction and should not command a risk premium in equilibrium the bonds are traded in two forms allowing us to evaluate the rewards to bearing extra lottery risk despite its idiosyncratic nature we find prices appear to reflect aversion to this risk we evaluate the empirical determinants of this differential pricing and possible explanations for it article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

choice under uncertainty problems solved and unsolved ffifteen years ago the theory of choice under uncertainty could be considered one of the success stories of economic analysis it rested on solid axiomatic foundations it had seen important breakthroughs in the analytics of risk risk aversion and their applications to economic issues and it stood ready to provide the theoretical underpinnings for the newly emerging information revolution in economics 1 today choice under uncertainty is a field in flux the standard theory is being challenged on several grounds from both within and outside economics the nature of these challenges and of our profession s responses to them is the topic of this paper

former soviet union oil production and gdp decline granger causality and the multi cycle hubbert curve abstract this paper discusses the transition of the former soviet union fsu within the context of a 1987 1996 soviet and fsu oil production decline the conventional explanation of the break up is that economic inefficiencies and the cold war defense build up caused it another possible explanation one that is examined at length here is that declining oil production was a contributing factor the econometric analysis suggests that the fall in soviet and former soviet gdp in the 1980s and 1990s did not granger cause the decline in oil production but the decline in oil production did granger cause the fall in gdp coal and natural gas to gdp relationships show alternative granger causalities that we would expect to see with oil but do not a multi cycle hubbert trend that may be used to forecast future fsu oil production is also shown

dynamic hypothetical bias in discrete choice experiments evidence from measuring the impact of corporate social responsibility on consumers demand abstract this paper is aimed at studying the dynamics of consumers preferences for corporate social responsibility the data come from both a discrete choice experiment dce and a field experiment conducted in a real market setting the results show that in a static setting first month predictions of a standard dce study and real market shares are statistically similar for the various profiles of corporate social responsibility however as time evolves real market shares present some dynamic patterns that are not mirrored by the standard dce predictions the overall conclusion is that differences between real market behavior and dce data can be attributed to the lack of learning experience or adaptation in dce surveys rather than to the hypothetical nature of the experiments

comparing alternative models of heterogeneity in consumer choice behavior summary when modeling demand for differentiated products it is vital to adequately capture consumer taste heterogeneity but there is no clearly preferred approach here we compare the performance of six alternative models currently the most popular are mixed logit mixl particularly the version with normal mixing n mixl and latent class lc which assumes discrete consumer types recently several alternative models have been developed the generalized multinomial logit g mnl extends n mixl by allowing for heterogeneity in the logit scale coefficient scale heterogeneity logit s mnl is a special case of g mnl with scale heterogeneity only the mixed mixed logit mm mnl assumes a discrete mixture of normals heterogeneity distribution finally one can modify n mixl by imposing theoretical sign constraints on vertical attributes we call this t mixl we find that none of these models dominates the others but g mnl mm mnl and t mixl typically outperform the popular n mixl and lc models copyright 2012 john wiley sons ltd

the impacts of tourism energy consumption and political instability on economic growth in the mena countries using panel data of 24 countries in the middle east and north african mena region from 2001 to 2009 the purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of tourism energy consumption and political instability on economic growth within the neoclassical growth framework to address the objective of this study we utilise both the static panel data approach as well as the dynamic generalised method of moments gmm estimator to examine the impact of candidate variables our results show that energy consumption and tourism significantly contribute to the economic growth of countries in the mena region hence our study lends some support to the existence of the tourism led growth and energy led growth hypotheses in the region in line with our expectation our estimation results also reveal that political instability impedes the process of economic growth and development in the mena region therefore macroeconomic policies to promote expansion in tourism and energy consumption will directly stimulate economic growth additionally efforts to help the region overcome its history of political instability would attract more international tourist arrivals and further invigorate economic growth

asset pricing in multiperiod securities markets the intertemporal models developed in this paper have been stimulated by the capital asset pricing model capm of sharpe and lintner and the role of factor structure in ross arbitrage pricing theory apt suppose that some one dimensional stochastic process s provides a sufficient statistic for aggregate consumption then a heuristic dynamic programming argument shows that s market wealth and the wealth derivative of the value function for any agent are all locally perfectly correlated it follows from merton s work that there is a linear relationship between the local mean return on a security and the local covariance of that return with the return on the market portfolio the formal development uses martingale representation and martingale projection to obtain an intertemporal capm the history of a scalar brownian motion plays the role of a sufficient statistic we motivate the assumption of a sufficient statistic for aggregate consumption by considering a countable set of securities whose payoffs have an approximate factor structure where the factor components are in the information set generated by an n dimensional brownian motion and the idiosyncratic components are weakly correlated the approximate factor structure on the security payoffs implies that the rates of return have locally an approximate factor structure the role of the market portfolio can now be played by a set of n well diversified portfolios

ex day behavior with dividend preference and limitations to short term arbitrage the case of swedish lottery bonds abstract swedish lottery bonds offer a unique opportunity to study ex day effects in an environment where cash distributions are tax advantaged relative to capital gains thus in the lottery bond market we observe a reversal of the preference for capital gains that researchers have cited as an explanation for the ex day behavior of u s equities further in this market there are barriers to short term arbitrage when prices do reflect the tax preferences of individual investors we find the bonds are priced around the ex day to reflect differential tax rates on income and capital gains consistent with the prevailing tax regimes the bonds consistently experience negative returns over the coupon payment period and in fact often sell at negative yields prior to the cash distribution as one would expect given tax motivated trading between high tax investors who buy prior to the distribution and low tax investors who buy after the distribution

tests for parameter instability in regressions with i 1 processes this article derives the large sample distributions of lagrange multiplier lm tests for parameter instability against several alternatives of interest in the context of cointegrated regression models the fully modified estimator of phillips and hansen is extended to cover general models with stochastic and deterministic trends the test statistics considered include the supf test of quandt as well as the lm tests of nyblom and of nabeya and tanaka it is found that the asymptotic distributions depend on the nature of the regressor processes that is if the regressors are stochastic or deterministic trends the distributions are noticeably different from the distributions when the data are weakly dependent it is also found that the lack of cointegration is a special case of the alternative hypothesis considered an unstable intercept so the tests proposed here may also be viewed as a test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration the tests are applied to three data se

energy consumption economic growth nexus for pakistan taming the untamed abstract a recent survey of energy growth literature has highlighted the potential trade off between bivariate models that suffer from omitted variable bias and the danger of over parameterization of multivariate models in the individual country setting narayan and smyth 2 this is a serious limitation when the interest is in drawing policy implications for specific countries with short times series of available data the maximum entropy bootstrap approach was used to re examine the nature of causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for pakistan where the available time series data was only from 1971 to 2011 unlike the techniques used in much of the earlier literature this approach does not rely on asymptotic methods and therefore leads to robust inference even in small samples moreover the approach can be applied in the presence of non stationarity of any type and structural breaks without requiring data transformation for to achieving stationarity and is not sensitive to specification errors such as those in lag length selection the empirical findings based on both the bivariate as well as the multivariate frameworks supported the conservation hypothesis implying the existence of a unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption

the role of natural gas consumption and trade in tunisia s output this paper examines the impact of natural gas consumption real gross fixed capital formation and trade on the real gdp in case of tunisia over the period of 1980 2010 we used auto regressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach to test the existence of long run relationship between the variables the vector error correction method vecm granger approach is applied to test the direction of causal relation between the series our findings indicate the existence of long run relationship among the variables natural gas consumption real gross fixed capital formation and trade add in economic growth natural gas consumption real gross fixed capital formation and real trade granger cause real gdp these findings open up new insights for policy makers to formulate a comprehensive energy policy to sustain economic growth for long run

natural gas consumption and economic growth in pakistan abstract natural gas is a dominant fuel in pakistan it offers the cheapest and a cleaner alternative source of energy this paper examines the relationship of natural gas consumption and economic growth in pakistan we include capital labor and exports in the model with multivariate framework the ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration and innovative accounting approach are employed to investigate the dynamic causality relationships among the variables we find the existence of long run relationship among the variables natural gas consumption capital labor and exports are positively affecting economic growth in pakistan furthermore we support the natural gas consumption led growth hypothesis and suggest that natural gas conservation policies may retard economic growth

unraveling the choice format effect a context dependent random utility model a few recent studies report that preferences elicited from a two alternative choice format are different from those elicited from a three alternative choice format when both choice set designs contain a status quo option we hypothesize that the choice format effect might disappear when we estimate a random utility model rum that allows for context dependent preferences based on the estimated context dependent rum we find that the choice format effect is likely the result of two offsetting effects a task complexity effect that increases the probability of choosing the status quo option and a preference matching effect which decreases the probability

complexity effects in choice experiment based models abstract many firms rely on choice experiment based models to evaluate future marketing actions under various market conditions this research investigates choice complexity i e number of alternatives number of attributes and utility similarity between the most attractive alternatives and individual differences in decision time as key factors that affect the predictive performance of models based on choice experiments both within and between complexity conditions the results show that complexity and individual decision time not only affect the error in consumer choice models but also consumers decision strategy and systematic utilities the authors introduce a complexity adjusted mixed logit cam logit model to capture the various influences of complexity in choice experiment based models they illustrate the consequences of complexity on choice behavior with market share predictions of the cam logit model for different complexity conditions

revisiting the concept of environmental kuznets curve in period of energy disaster and deteriorating income empirical evidence from japan this study investigates the position of the japanese environmental kuznets curve in period of natural disaster and deteriorating income following the recent fukushima energy crisis the study aim to establish whether the ekc exist in period of energy disaster and deteriorating income to ensure this data from 1961 to 2012 was used while the zivot andrew structural break test the ardl bounds test were applied and these were validated using the innovation accounting test the finding of the study established the existence of inverted u shape suggesting the presence of ekc despite the deteriorating income of the country with the discovery of the existence of ekc in this study despite the dwindling productivity and revenue in japan this study challenged the ekc hypothesis and all existing studies on ekc by establishing that natural disasters are in themselves strong causative agents for the ekc to unfold and it is immaterial whether the economic fortunes of a country is increasing or decreasing the study further discovered energy consumption to be the major contributor of environmental degradation in japan while exports declines co2 emissions but imports adds to environmental degradation on the growth prospects of the japanese economy after the crisis the study discovered how energy consumption exports and imports contribute 33 55 1 027 and 7 126 to the country s economic growth respectively in return a minimum of 16 24 23 89 and 44 18 of co2 emissions was discovered the study proposed policy instruments that will help in realizing a balanced environment amidst efficient energy consumption and environmental management among others

applied econometrics and implications for energy economics research abstract developments in applied econometrics particularly with regard to unit root tests and cointegration tests have motivated a rich empirical literature on energy economics over the last decade this study reviews recent developments in time series econometrics applications in the energy economics literature we first consider the literature on the integration properties of energy variables we begin with a discussion of the implications of whether energy variables contain a unit root and proceed to examine how results differ according to the specific unit root or stationarity test employed we then proceed to examine recent developments in the literature on cointegration granger causality and long run estimates between disaggregated energy consumption and economic growth we review both single country and panel studies and pay particular attention to studies which have expanded the literature through adding variables such as financial development and trade in addition to energy consumption to the augmented production function as well as studies which have extended the literature through examining disaggregated energy consumption by type in each case we highlight best practice in the literature point to limitations in the literature including econometric modeling challenges and suggest recommendations for future research a key message of our survey is that the profession needs to guard against overload of research in these areas as most applied studies are no longer adding anything more to what is already known

the relationship among natural gas energy consumption capital and economic growth bootstrap corrected causality tests from g 7 countries abstract this paper examines the relationship between natural gas consumption economic growth and capital by using g 7 countries data and a bootstrap corrected causality test for the period 1970 2008 it was found eight significant granger causality relationships for italy the granger causality is from natural gas consumption to growth and united kingdom adverse for pattern of france germany and united states there is two sided granger causality between natural gas and growth

are choice experiments reliable evidence from the lab this study investigates whether a popular stated preference method the choice experiment ce reliably measures individuals values for a good we address this question using an induced value experiment our results indicate that ces fail to elicit payoff maximizing choices we find little evidence that increasing the salience of the choices or adding monetary incentives increase the proportion of payoff maximizing choices this questions the increasing use of ce to value non market goods for policy making

choice consistency and preference stability in test retests of discrete choice experiment and open ended willingness to pay elicitation formats this study tests the temporal stability of preferences choices and willingness to pay wtp values using both discrete choice experiment dce and open ended oe wtp elicitation formats the same sample is surveyed three times over the course of two years using each time the same choice sets choice consistency is positively correlated with choice certainty and choice complexity the impact of choice complexity fades away in time most likely as a result of learning and preference refinement although the oe wtp values remain stable over a time period of 2 years as in previous stated preference studies dce based wtp measures differ significantly suggesting their use in benefits transfer may be limited

the energy growth nexus in thailand does trade openness boost up energy consumption the nexus between trade openness and energy demand is hot topic of discussion among academicians and researchers and numerous studies are available in existing literature while investigating the nexus between trade openness and energy demand this paper explores the relationship between energy consumption trade openness and economic growth in case of thailand in doing so we have applied bayer and hanck cointegration approach to test whether the long run relationship exists between the variables our results confirm the presence of cointegration between the variables energy consumption stimulates economic growth trade openness adds in economic growth the causality analysis reveals that energy consumption granger causes economic growth and in resulting economic growth granger causes energy consumption trade openness and energy consumption are interdependent i e trade openness granger causes energy consumption and in return energy consumption granger causes trade openness this paper openness up new directions for policy making authorities in thailand to design a comprehensive energy and trade policies to sustain economic growth for long run

the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in opec members the purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in 12 opec member countries for the period of 1980 2012 the paper adopts the panel granger causality test of dumitrescu and hurlin 2012 21 to assess the causal relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth the findings show the evidence of feedback relation between natural gas consumption and economic growth in opec members as a panel however diverse results are obtained when the member countries are individually examined the results provide evidence for growth hypothesis in iraq kuwait libya nigeria and saudi arabia but conservation hypothesis in algeria iran united arab emirates and venezuela further evidence suggests the existence of neutrality hypothesis in angola and qatar and feedback hypothesis in ecuador

on mandatory labeling of animal welfare attributes this paper assesses us resident support for mandatory labeling of animal welfare information on pork and egg products and outlines policy considerations for assessment prior to implementing any mandatory labeling policies regarding animal welfare practices results suggest consumers support mandatory labeling indicating use of gestation crates stalls and laying hen cages estimates suggest consumers would be willing to pay about 20 higher pork and egg prices to obtain this production practice information demographic and latent perception drivers of this support are highlighted multiple issues that warrant consideration prior to imposing mandatory labeling are discussed revealing lines of corresponding future research

natural gas consumption and economic development in china and japan an empirical examination of the asian context abstract this paper examined the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic development in two largest natural gas consumers in asia namely china and japan for the period of 1980 2012 it used the autoregressive distributed lags ardl method for the empirical analysis the findings revealed some similarities in the natural gas consumption and economic development nexus in china and japan thus a cointegration relationship between natural gas consumption and economic development was found to exist both in china and japan however there was an important difference in the findings in the case of china the findings indicated the existence of a unidirectional causality from natural gas consumption to economic development which was in line with the growth hypothesis in japan there was a bidirectional causality between natural gas consumption and economic development which supported the feedback hypothesis

designing discrete choice experiments do optimal designs come at a price in discrete choice experiments design decisions are crucial for determining data quality and costs while high statistical efficiency designs are desirable they may come at a price if they increase the cognitive burden for respondents we address this problem by designing 44 experiments that systematically vary numbers of attributes and attribute level differences our results for two product categories suggest that respondents systematically are less consistent in answering choice questions as statistical efficiency increases this relationship holds regardless of the number of attributes and is statistically significant even if one accommodates preference heterogeneity implications for practice and future research are discussed

energy consumption and gdp revisited a panel analysis of developed and developing countries this paper applies a new panel data stationarity testing procedure first developed by carrion i silvestre et al 2005 econometrics journal 8 159 175 with panel vars that employ the generalized method of moment techniques in order to re investigate the dynamic interactions between energy consumption per capita lec and real gdp per capita lry in 22 developed and 18 developing countries when multiple breaks in the series are taken into account there is convincing evidence of panel stationarity for lec and lry in both groups the energy crises evidently had a substantive impact on both lec and lry in all sample countries furthermore our panel vars attest to bidirectional causality between lec and lry in developed countries but there is uni directional causality from lry to lec in developing countries finally from the orthogonalized impulse response functions all of the variables in the panel vars have a positive effect on each other but their impact is greater and more persistent in developing countries some important policy implications do emerge

a simulation approach for analysis of short term security of natural gas supply in colombia abstract achieving security of gas supply implies diversifying gas sources while having enough supply transportation and storage capacity to meet demand peaks and supply interruptions devising a strategy for securing gas supply is not straightforward because gas supply depends on complex interactions of production demand and infrastructure and it is exposed to economic regulatory political environmental and technical risks to address this complexity we propose a simulation approach that replicates the structure of the gas supply chain including transportation constraints and demand fluctuations we build and calibrate a computer model for the colombian gas sector and run the model to assess the impact of expanding transportation capacity and increasing market flexibility on the security of supply our analysis focuses on the operation and planned and proposed expansions of the transportation infrastructure because adequate regulation and development of this infrastructure can contribute to increase the security of supply in the gas sector we find that proposed import facilities specifically lng import terminals at buenaventura increase system s security under the current market structure

does the need for economic growth influence energy consumption and co2 emissions in nigeria evidence from the innovation accounting test abstract developing economies like nigeria are competing strategically to ensure a rise in sustainable economic growth and reduction in co2 emission the question is could this be possible amidst the series of energy crises facing the country it is against this development that this paper investigates empirically if the nexus between economic growth energy consumption financial development trade openness and co2 emissions in nigeria could provide a clue the study used time series data from 1971 to 2011 to ensure a robust result the study applied the ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration the zivot andrew structural break test and the bayer hanck combine cointegration analysis the causality analysis was checked using the vecm model and this was validated using the innovative accounting and the impulse response test the findings of the study revealed that financial development stimulates energy demand but lowers co2 emissions economic growth lowers energy demand but increases co2 emissions in addition to that the study discovered how trade openness increases energy consumption but improves environmental quality by lowering co2 emissions energy consumption was on the other hand found to have significant increase on co2 emissions the granger causality analysis revealed a bidirectional causal relationship between financial development and energy consumption and the same inference was found in financial development and co2 emissions in this study trade led energy hypothesis and the existence of a feedback effect between economic growth and co2 emissions were discovered the study recommends massive investment in nigeria s financial sector with the motivation for these sectors to invest in efficient and sustainable renewable energy system how it should be done and why it should be done are carefully outlined in this study

structural breaks energy consumption and economic growth revisited evidence from taiwan abstract this paper studies the stability between energy consumption and gdp for taiwan during 1954 2003 we use aggregate as well as various disaggregate data of energy consumption including coal oil gas and electricity to employ the unit root tests and the cointegration tests allowing for structural breaks our main findings are first though gas consumption seems to have structural breaks in the 1960s after considering the structural breaks the series is a stationary variable when taiwan adopted its expansionary export trade policy second we find that different directions of causality exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption the empirical result shows unanimously in the long run that energy acts as an engine of economic growth and that energy conservation may harm economic growth third the cointegration between energy consumption and gdp is unstable and some economic events may affect the stability overall we do find the structural breakpoints and they look to match clearly with the corresponding critical economic incidents

the influence of task complexity on consumer choice a latent class model of decision strategy switching the literature indicating that person context and task specific factors cause consumers to utilize different decision strategies has generally failed to affect the specification of choice models used by practitioners and academics alike who still tend to assume an utility maximizing omniscient indefatigable consumer this article 1 introduces decision strategy selection within a maintained compensatory framework into aggregate choice models via latent classes which arise because of task complexity 2 it demonstrates that within an experimental choice task the model reflects changing aggregate preferences as choice complexity changes and as the task progresses the import of these findings for current practice model interpretation and future research needs is examined

designing choice sets for stated preference methods the effects of complexity on choice consistency abstract we vary the complexity of choice sets used in stated preference methods to evaluate the impact on choice consistency we define five measures of complexity that capture either the amount of information or the correlational structure of information in a choice set using these measures as randomly assigned treatments in a large experiment we analyze the consistency of respondents choices using a heteroskedastic multinomial logit model we find that i all of our measures of choice set complexity affect choice consistency ii changes in the correlational structure of information have the largest impact on choice consistency and iii choice complexity significantly distorts welfare estimates our results confirm economists initial worry that moving from contingent valuation to conjoint methods will increase complexity induced choice inconsistency however our analysis also shows that these negative impacts may be mitigated if precautions are taken at the design and estimation stages of stated preference methods

the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the united states an ardl approach abstract we re examine the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output as well as employment in the united states using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl approach developed by pesaran and pesaran pesaran m h pesaran b 1997 working with microfit 4 0 camfit data ltd cambridge and pesaran shin and smith pesaran m h shin y smith r j 2001 bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships journal of applied econometrics 16 289 326 in particular we focus attention on the following energy consumption variables coal fossil fuels conventional hydroelectric power solar energy wind energy natural gas wood and waste the sample period covers 2001 1 2005 6 our results imply that real output and employment are long run forcing variables for nearly all measures of disaggregate energy consumption

individual vs aggregate preferences the case of a small fish in a big pond we study the relationship between the risk preferences of individuals and the risk preferences of the aggregate economy to emphasize the vast differences that can occur between individual and market preferences brought about through aggregation we assume an economy consisting entirely of risk seekers we show that such individuals can lead to an aggregate economy that is risk averse the converse is also true an aggregate economy that exhibits risk aversion does not imply an economy of individual risk averters an economy demanding a risk premium can be formed from individuals who do not demand such compensation understanding the relationship between the preferences of individuals and the preferences of the aggregate economy is crucial for understanding the connection between the behavioral finance literature which focuses on individual preferences and the asset pricing literature which focuses on aggregate prices we discuss empirical implications of these results this paper was accepted by wei xiong finance

energy human capital and economic growth in asia pacific countries evidence from a panel cointegration and causality analysis this paper examines the cointegration and causal relationship between energy consumption and economic development in 16 asia pacific countries over the period 1970 2011 using the augmented production function which considers not only physical capital and labor but also human capital this is likely among the first of the energy growth nexus literature to include human capital in the multivariate framework using recently developed panel unit root test and cointegration test that allow for cross sectional dependence this paper finds a long run cointegrating relationship between these variables continuously updated fully modified cup fm estimates are subsequently compared with panel heterogeneous fully modified ordinary least squares fmols results to confirm the importance of accounting for interdependence across countries the bootstrap panel granger causality test results find economic growth granger cause energy use in the region but the relationship varies for individual countries