cash transfers and management advice for agriculture evidence from senegal this study analyzes impacts of large one time cash transfers and farm management plans among farmers in senegal farmers were randomized into groups receiving advisory visits the visits and an in

cash transfer programs with income multipliers procampo in mexico abstract cash transfer programs create multiplier effects when recipients put the money they receive to work to generate further incomes when this is the case the ultimate income effects are multiples of the amounts transferred we analyze the procampo program in mexico that was introduced to compensate farmers for the anticipated negative effect of nafta on the prices of basic crops the transfer rules and the timing of the panel data collected allow unique control of biases in this impact analysis we find that the multiplier among ejido sector recipients is in the range 1 5 2 6 multipliers are higher for households with medium and large farms low numbers of adults in the household nonindigenous backgrounds and located in the center and gulf regions high multipliers reflect income opportunities that had remained unrealized due to liquidity constraints that are relaxed by the transfers opportunities come from the asset endowments that these households received through the land reform particularly irrigated land and they are enhanced by access to technical assistance

workfare wellbeing and consumption evidence from a field experiment with kenya s urban poor abstract restrictions like work requirements and constraints on voucher transfers are often used in social welfare systems but little empirical evidence exists on their impact on wellbeing we conducted a 10 day randomized experiment with 432 individuals living below the poverty line in the kawangware settlement of nairobi kenya testing two elements of social welfare design workfare versus welfare and restricted versus unrestricted vouchers participants were randomly assigned to a work condition involving daily work for unrestricted vouchers or one of two wait conditions involving daily waiting for vouchers that were either unrestricted or partially restricted to staple foods we find that working improved psychological wellbeing relative to waiting suggesting that the means of implementing welfare programs may have important effects on individuals beyond the impact of monetary benefit alone furthermore although the restrictions were inframarginal partially restricted vouchers crowded in spending on staple foods suggesting the existence of a flypaper effect in spending from restricted vouchers

indirect effects of an aid program how do cash transfers affect ineligibles consumption cash transfers to eligible households indirectly increase the consumption of ineligible households living in the same villages this effect operates through insurance and credit markets ineligible households benefit from the transfers by receiving more gifts and loans and by reducing their savings thus the transfers benefit the local economy at large looking only at the effect on the treated underestimates the impact one should analyze the effects of this class of programs on the entire local economy rather than on the treated only and use a village level randomization rather than selecting treatment and control subjects from the same community

the effect of gender targeted conditional cash transfers on household expenditures evidence from a randomized experiment this paper studies the differential effect of targeting cash transfers to men or women on the structure of household expenditures on non durables we study a policy intervention in the republic of macedonia offering cash transfers to poor households conditional on having their children attending secondary school the recipient of the transfer is randomized across municipalities to be either the household head or the mother using data collected to evaluate the conditional cash transfer program we show that the gender of the recipient has an effect on the structure of expenditure shares targeting transfers to women increases the expenditure share on food by about 4 to 5 to study the allocation of expenditures within the food basket we estimate a demand system for food and we find that targeting payments to mothers induces for different food categories not only a significant intercept shift but also a change in the slope of the engel curve

the impact of usury ceilings on consumer credit usury regulation is a topic with a long history of discussion nevertheless the debate over the merits of usury regulation continues to the present day in the early part of the 1980s the rapid rise in nominal interest rates swung the debate in favor of the opponents of usury ceilings during this period a quarter of the states enacted legislation which largely eliminated their usury ceilings on consumer credit however with the return of lower interest rates in the middle part of the decade the argument for low usury ceilings gained increasing support and as a result several states lowered their usury ceilings on some types of credit the first formal economic model of the impact of usury ceilings was outlined by blitz and long 8 their insightful analysis has led researchers to focus on two hypotheses concerning the impact of usury ceilings on consumer credit hypothesis 1 usury ceilings reduce the quantity of credit obtained by high risk borrowers

secular and cyclical responses of u s trade to income an evaluation of traditional models in the three decades since guy orcutt s 1950 classic paper evaluating empirical research on international trade flows most trade research has focused on the influence of prices in the decade since the benchmark study by houthakker and magee 1969 examination of the role of prices has accelerated although income is consistently the most significant explanatory variable in these studies it is typically introduced only as a background control variable rather than as a variable of central interest the few explicit studies of the link from income to trade either use proxies such as delivery lags and inventory ratios to investigate the dynamics of the link e g gregory 1971 and artus 1973 or decompose income into trend deviation from trend and in one instance change in deviation from trend in an attempt to separate the secular and business cycle components e g ball eaton and steuer 1966 khan and ross 1975 and dunlevy 1980 stephen magee 1975 pp 188 193 211 214 provides a persuasive rationale for at least the spirit of the second line of research arguing that trade flows respond differently to secular and business cycle income changes and that regression estimates with income in level form mix these effects time domain decomposition is now an established practice with the trend response identified with secular forces like comparative advantage hence could be positive or negative in either demand or supply the deviation from trend response with a business cycle keynesian mechanism hence is likely to be positive in demand and negative in supply and the change in deviation from trend response with a sneed of adjustment constraint hence is likely to be negative the most recent evidence bearing on these issues is provided by dunlevy 1980 who finds that the effect of the business cycle income proxy deviation fromtrend income on the supply of exports for the united states and the united kingdom is positive rather than negative evidence contradicting both theory and evidence in earlier capacity pressure studies in this paper we first evaluate traditional regression estimates of income elasticities of demand and supply for u s imports and exports from 1955 to 1979 then compare these estimates to cross spectral estimates of the secular and business cycle responses of trade to income the spectral technique is used because by definition the approach estimates separately the secular and business cycle links between trade and income if the response of trade to movements in income does differ over cycles regression estimates of income elasticities may reflect bias and instability due to cycle varying parameters regression elasticity estimates with income in trend and deviation from trend forms do provide separate estimates but the decomposition is useful only to the degree that the two variables are accurate proxies for secular and business cycle movements in income it should be emphasized that we are not using spectral analysis to detect lead lag properties since these are more directly obtained in the time domain and are relatively trivial for our sample the unique advantage of spectral analysis is that it isolates secular and business cycle components directly even when the time domain link is only contemporaneous the paper is organized as follows section ii presents and evaluates time domain estimates of standard demand and supply equations for u s imports and exports and presents caveats regarding interpretation of the trend and deviationfrom trend income variables section iii proreceived for publication march 4 1981 revision accepted for publication may 12 1982 university of oregon an earlier draft of this paper was presented at the fall 1980 north american meeting of the econometric society we acknowledge helpful comments from s y kwack john mutti and two anonymous referees we also thank john pippenger for supplying the spectral program specx68 and the university of oregon for a faculty research grant remaining errors are solely ours i application of spectral methods to investigate trade income links was first suggested by ball eaton and steuer 1966 p 503 they were unable to use the technique however because the data series available at that time were too short

the short term impact of unconditional cash transfers to the poor experimental evidence from kenya we use a randomized controlled trial to study the response of poor households in rural kenya to unconditional cash transfers from the ngo givedirectly the transfers differ from other programs in that they are explicitly unconditional large and concentrated in time we randomized at both the village and household levels furthermore within the treatment group we randomized recipient gender wife versus husband transfer timing lump sum transfer versus monthly installments and transfer magnitude us 404 ppp versus us 1 525 ppp we find a strong consumption response to transfers with an increase in household monthly consumption from 158 ppp to 193 ppp nine months after the transfer began transfer recipients experience large increases in psychological well being we find no overall effect on levels of the stress hormone cortisol although there are differences across some subgroups monthly transfers are more likely than lump sum transfers to improve food security whereas lump sum transfers are more likely to be spent on durables suggesting that households face savings and credit constraints together these results suggest that unconditional cash transfers have significant impacts on economic outcomes and psychological well being

how reliable are simple single equation specifications of import demand this paper examines nine models of aggregate import demand for each of five countries canada germany japan united kingdom and united states in an attempt to determine which of the frequently used single equation models of import demand are appropriate an appropriate model is defined as one which generates unbiased or at least consistent and efficient elasticity estimates while models without lagged adjustments and almon lag models perform rather poorly according to these criteria models including dynamic behavior through lagged values of the dependent variable are frequently accepted results are reported regarding functional form measures of variables and structural shift economists have devoted considerable attention to the estimation of aggregate import demand elasticities because of their importance in trade theory the simplest procedure for estimating these elasticities which is consistent with economic theory is to assume that the elasticity of supply of imports is infinitely elastic and to estimate

real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior theory and evidence from developing countries abstract this paper develops a dynamic model of real exchange rate rer behavior in developing countries a three goods economy exportables importables and non tradables is considered residents of this country hold domestic and foreign assets and there is a dual exchange rate regime there is a government that consumes importables and non tradables a distinction is made between equilibrium and disequilibrium movements of the rer the determinants of real exchange rate misalignment are studied with emphasis placed on the role of devaluations and balance of payments crises the implications of the model are tested using data for 12 developing countries the results obtained are generally favorable for the model the issue of rer stationarity is also analyzed

why don t the poor save more evidence from health savings experiments using data from a field experiment in kenya we document that providing individuals with simple informal savings technologies can substantially increase investment in preventative health and reduce vulnerability to health shocks simply providing a safe place to keep money was sufficient to increase health savings by 66 percent adding an earmarking feature was only helpful when funds were put toward emergencies or for individuals that are frequently taxed by friends and relatives group based savings and credit schemes had very large effects

reducing child malnutrition how far does income growth take us how rapidly will child malnutrition respond to income growth this article explores that question using household survey data from 12 countries as well as data on malnutrition rates in a cross section of countries since the 1970s both forms of analysis yield similar results increases in income at the household and national levels imply similar rates of reduction in malnutrition using these estimates and better than historical income growth rates the article finds that the millennium development goal of halving the prevalence of underweight children by 2015 is unlikely to be met through income growth alone what is needed to accelerate reductions in malnutrition is a balanced strategy of income growth and investment in more direct interventions

comparing cash and voucher transfers in a humanitarian context evidence from the democratic republic of congo despite recent calls in support of cash transfers there is little rigorous evidence of the relative impacts of cash versus in kind transfers especially in humanitarian contexts where a majority of such programs take place this paper uses data from a randomized experiment in the democratic republic of congo to assess the relative impacts and costs of equivalently valued cash and voucher transfers the voucher program distorted households purchases along both the extensive and intensive margin as compared with unconstrained cash households yet there were no differences in food consumption or other measures of well being in part due to the fact that voucher households were able to resell part of what they purchased as there were no significant benefits to vouchers cash transfers were the more cost effective modality for both the implementing agency and program recipients in this context

moving up or just surviving nonfarm self employment in india the classical economic development literature argues that growth is accompanied by a reduction in agriculture s share and an increase in nonagriculture s share of employment yet growth of the nonfarm sector does not necessarily signal increasing levels of development as the sector may serve as subsistence employment for many individuals this ambiguity is heightened by a surprising lack of microevidence regarding sectoral and occupational choice and especially how government policies impact these decisions in this article i make a simple observation regarding how nonfarm self employment reacts to market conditions households and individuals that enter into nonfarm self employment for subsistence reasons are more likely to exit the sector when wages increase or when more stable employment becomes available with this assumption as a starting point i examine the effects of the mahatma gandhi national rural employment guarantee act which increased prevailing wages in rural india the program significantly decreases days spent in nonfarm self employment in addition the implied labor elasticity is three times higher than economy wide estimates suggesting rural nonfarm self employment is a sector of last resort for many individuals additional analyses suggest this impact is driven primarily by two mechanisms higher wages and alternative options for risk management

generating skilled self employment in developing countries experimental evidence from uganda we study a government program in uganda designed to help the poor and unemployed become self employed artisans increase incomes and thus promote social stability young adults in uganda s conflict affected north were invited to form groups and submit grant proposals for vocational training and business start up funding was randomly assigned among screened and eligible groups treatment groups received unsupervised grants of 382 per member grant recipients invest some in skills training but most in tools and materials after four years half practice a skilled trade relative to the control group the program increases business assets by 57 work hours by 17 and earnings by 38 many also formalize their enterprises and hire labor we see no effect however on social cohesion antisocial behavior or protest effects are similar by gender but are qualitatively different for women because they begin poorer meaning the impact is larger relative to their starting point and because women s work and earnings stagnate without the program but take off with it the patterns we observe are consistent with credit constraints

unconditional cash transfers in china who benefits from the rural minimum living standard guarantee dibao program summary this paper analyzes china s rural minimum living standard guarantee dibao program one of the largest minimum income cash transfer schemes in the world and examines possible changes to the program design despite its size and central position in china s current poverty reduction strategy little is known about the rural dibao program s performance and targeting effectiveness our analysis uses annual household survey data from the china household income project matched with published administrative data for the years 2007 09 we find that the program provides sufficient income to poor beneficiaries but does not substantially reduce the overall level of poverty conventional targeting analysis reveals large inclusionary and exclusionary targeting errors propensity score targeting analysis yields smaller but still large targeting errors simulations of possible changes to the program design reveal that expanding coverage can potentially yield greater poverty reduction than increasing transfer amounts replacing locally diverse dibao lines and transfer amounts with a nationally uniform dibao threshold and transfer could in theory reduce poverty further but the potential gains are modest without improvements in targeting this paper makes several contributions to our knowledge this is the first household level empirical analysis of china s dibao program in rural areas so the findings provide new policy relevant information moreover the literature has not settled the question of whether such programs should be centralized or decentralized we show that in practice the potential gains of centralizing the eligibility rule and transfer amount are conditional on the efficiency of targeting by varying the program s key design parameters our analysis also yields insights into alternative policy recommendations to improve the program performance

chapter 11 and asbestos encouraging private enterprise or conspiring to avoid liability this paper explores the american bankruptcy system especially the chapter 11 code which since 1978 has allowed insolvent companies the opportunity to restructure and reorganise with the benefit of court protection from creditors particular attention is focused on asbestos companies such as johns manville which have been among the most consistent and controversial filers for bankruptcy under chapter 11 the history of asbestos and chapter 11 is explored against the backdrop of the burgeoning asbestos crisis caused by increasing mortality and litigation some of the business and ethical issues involved are highlighted by examining in detail a recent bankruptcy federal mogul t n in 2001 that has implications in both britain and america chapter 11 bankruptcy is evaluated particularly in the light of the trend towards similar mechanisms of insolvency in the uk europe and the rest of the world it is concluded that certainly as regards the experience with asbestos chapter 11 offers an inefficient and inequitable method of rehabilitating or rescuing failing businesses

transfers in cash and in kind theory meets the data we review theoretical explanations for in kind transfers in light of the limited empirical evidence after reviewing the traditional paternalistic arguments we consider explanations based on imperfect information and self targeting we then discuss the large literature on in kind programs as a way of improving the efficiency of the tax system and a range of other possible explanations including the samaritan s dilemma pecuniary effects credit constraints asymmetric information amongst agents and political economy considerations our reading of the evidence suggests that paternalism and interdependent preferences are leading overall explanations for the existence of in kind transfer programs but that some of the other arguments may apply to specific cases political economy considerations must also be part of the story

child labor and schooling responses to anticipated income in south africa abstract forward looking unconstrained households make child labor and schooling decisions considering their permanent income and weighing the relative returns to child time in various potential activities the timing of anticipated changes in income should have no effect on child labor and schooling in a setting where households can borrow against permanent income however this study documents large increases in schooling attendance and declines in total hours worked when black south african families become eligible for fully anticipatable social pension income as an explanation the data are most consistent with liquidity constraints for black elder males forcing rural families into less schooling for boys than they would choose absent the constraint perhaps because of schooling costs

the ethics of using chapter xi as a management strategy in the past decade the use of the chapter xi has soared to the detriment of many creditors workers and consumers a good number of cases were not based on imminent insolvency but on firms attempts to avoid litigation claims against them to terminate labor or other contractual obligations or to gain new financing

quantitative restrictions and indian imports abstract many governments in ldcs tend 3o rely heavily on import control for achieving adjustments in the balance of payments the empirical analysis of imports of these countries has failed to address the issue of quantitative restrictions satisfactorily in this paper a set of disaggregated import demand equations are specified which attempt to capture the government s decision regarding quota restrictions the model postulates that the overall level of imports is determined by expected foreign exchange availability while the composition of imports once the level has been decided is based on political and economic priorities and on relative prices

examining the reliability of self reported data on school participation abstract many studies evaluate the impacts of conditional cash transfer cct programs on schooling using self reports on enrollment and attendance even though there are reasons to doubt the reliability of these data in this paper we examine the extent to which school age girls overstate their school participation using administrative data from a cash transfer experiment in malawi and school attendance ledgers collected as part of the impact evaluation we find that while all study participants overstate their enrollment and attendance rates the extent to which this happens is significantly higher in the control group than the cct arm this finding implies that exclusive reliance on self reported school participation data can lead to a serious underestimation of actual program impacts we recommend that self reports be supplemented using alternative sources of data on school participation that are appropriate to the experiment at hand even if such efforts are likely to increase evaluation costs

do husbands and wives pool their resources further evidence this paper replicates results of an article showing that families with children increased expenditures on women s clothing relative to men s after implementation of a policy that shifted a child subsidy payment from the father to the mother these results were interpreted as evidence that families do not pool their income but allocate consumption based on income source however the current paper also finds an increase in relative spending on women s clothing among childless couples a sample the policy change did not impact alternative explanations are explored for observing these patterns but none can rule out either bargaining or income pooling

dutch disease government policy and import demand in nigeria the effects of sectoral changes and government policies on import demand in nigeria are examined in the context of the oil shocks of the 1970s and 1980s a two equation model is estimated to determine real import demand and the real exchange rate the results show that import demand increased significantly in response to the boom induced squeeze on the agricultural sector furthermore by inducing and sustaining real exchange rate overvaluation expansionary government policies contributed to higher import demand even after the collapse in oil prices

the impact of unconditional cash transfer on fuel choices among ultra poor in pakistan quasi experimental evidence from the benazir income support program abstract we analyze the impact of the unconditional cash transfer program namely the benazir income support program bisp on fuel choices among ultra poor in pakistan using two rounds of household level data collected in 2011 and 2016 the analysis based on regression discontinuity design shows that bisp cash transfer has a significant impact on interfuel substitution cash transfer increases the use of modern fuels among bisp beneficiaries besides cash transfer also encourages the use of intermediate fuels even in some cases traditional fuels cash transfer also increases the share of fuel expenses in total household expenses therefore the fuel stacking theory provides a better explanation of interfuel substitution than the energy ladder theory of the cash transfer program the provincial analysis shows that interfuel substitution exists due to cash transfer but varies from province to province signifying the role of regional heterogeneities the net impact on fuel choices may depend on the availability of different fuel components from policy perspective the expansion of the cash transfer program as planned by the government would require a reasonable investment in the energy sector to ensure an uninterrupted supply of modern fuels

do husbands and wives pool their resources evidence from the united kingdom child benefit common preference models of family behavior imply income pooling a restriction on family demand functions such that only the sum of husband s income and wife s income affects the allocation of goods and time testing the pooling hypothesis is difficult because most family income sources are not exogenous to the allocations being analyzed in this paper we present an alternative test based on a natural experiment a policy change in the united kingdom that transferred a substantial child allowance to wives in the late 1970s using family expenditure survey data we find strong evidence that a shift toward greater expenditures on women s clothing and children s clothing relative to men s clothing coincided with this income redistribution

is corporate bankruptcy efficient abstract auctions allocate resources to their highest valued uses yet bankruptcy does not use auctions instead judges determine a value and parcel out interests on the assumption that this valuation is correct errors inevitable in this process lead many persons to conclude that bankruptcy is inefficient this essay argues that the conclusion does not follow the costs of error in valuation may be less than the cost of conducting an auction legal rules endure because they are efficient or because they transfer wealth transfers are an implausible explanation of the current bankruptcy regime leaving efficiency as the prevailing explanation

conflicts of interest the ethics of usury social attitudes toward usury here defined using the archaic meaning as the taking of interest on loans have changed dramatically over the centuries from antiquity until the protestant reformation usury was regarded as an inherently evil activity today with few exceptions usury is met with moral indifference modern objections to usury are limited to protest against excessive interest rates rather than interest per se with this change in focus the very meaning of the term usury has also changed many early pronouncements against the taking of interest emphasized the plight of the poor but ironically the poor actually pay the highest rates of interest in the modern american economy despite the universality of usury some socio economic subcultures still manage to avoid the taking or giving of interest orthodox branches of both judaism and islam have maintained bans on usury throughout the centuries and up to the present time this is especially interesting in the case of judaism given the popular cultural image of the jew as usurer jewish free loan systems may actually offer a model for modern loan programs that can be designed to aid poor borrowers who are frequently shut out of mainstream financial services

the dutch disease in a developing country oil reserves in cameroon abstract noting that most of the literature on the dutch disease refers to developed countries this paper looks at the impact of an oil boom on a developing country when certain features of developing countries particularly the imperfect substitutability between domestic and imported goods are incorporated one of the standard dutch disease results can be reversed not all the traded goods sectors will contract a simulation with a computable general equilibrium model of cameroon reveals that the agricultural sector is most likely to be hurt whereas some of the manufacturing sectors will benefit this suggests possible areas for government intervention should it be warranted and may explain the differential performance between the agricultural and industrial sectors of oil exporting countries in the post 1973 period

shifting fortunes the political economy of financial liberalization in nigeria abstract on the recommendation of the world bank nigeria began to liberalize its financial sector in 1986 contrary to the prediction of financial repression theory savings and investment decline in the wake of banking deregulation by 1995 the nigerian financial system was in a state of collapse the paper locates the main failure of nigeria s financial deregulation in the political and institutional setting of reform the institutional mechanisms needed to supervise and regulate banking under the new system were absent while private sector banking capacities were weak moreover financial liberalization was quickly captured by a clientalist state as a means of reallocating rents to strategic constituents an additional precipitating factor was macroeconomic instability the paper points to the importance of incorporating political and institutional variables into any model of financial reform or transformation

does the old age pension scheme improve household welfare evidence from india abstract as india s population has been ageing due to declines in fertility and mortality rates more policy emphasis has been placed on reducing poverty among the elderly the present study aims to examine the effect of indira gandhi national old age pension scheme ignoaps on household welfare indicators such as consumption expenditure income assets and poverty using the household longitudinal data based on the india human development survey in 2004 5 and 2011 12 we have applied the propensity score matching to build a counterfactual group and have used the propensity score weighted fixed effects model to eliminate time invariant unobservable household characteristics the results show that the ignoaps participation increased consumption expenditure food and non food expenditure and assets while reducing the household labour supply the sub sample estimations show that these effects are observed only when recipients are women however the results of difference in difference model imply that the poverty reducing effect deteriorated in 2011 12 after the government made several changes to programme specifications in 2007 this was likely because some households which accessed ignoaps after 2007 reduced the labour supply significantly while keeping the level of consumption

cash transfers and labor supply evidence from a large scale program in iran abstract this paper examines the impact of a national cash transfer program on labor supply in iran in 2011 iran started monthly deposits of cash into individual accounts covering more than 70 million people and amounting to 28 of the median per capita household income the payments were compensation for the sudden removal of hefty energy subsidies the program has been heavily criticized for its disincentive for work especially for the poor we use panel data to study the causal effect of the transfers on labor supply using exogenous variation in the time households first started receiving transfers and in the intensity of treatment which we define as the share of net transfers from the program in total per capita household expenditures we find no evidence that cash transfers reduced labor supply in terms of hours worked or labor force participation to the contrary we find positive effects on the labor supply of women and self employed men

are there increasing returns to the intergenerational production of human capital information on ability and achievement test scores of sibling children many of whom had mothers who continued their schooling between births is used to test the hypothesis that maternal schooling augments the production of children s human capital that there are increasing returns to human capital estimates from models that take into account heterogeneity in maternal endowments could not reject this hypothesis and suggest benefits to postponed childbearing in particular they suggest that postponement of the initiation of childbearing by two years among women who are tenth graders would result in a 5 percent increase in their children s achievement test scores

the effects of lottery prizes on winners and their neighbors evidence from the dutch postcode lottery each week the dutch postcode lottery pcl randomly selects a postal code and distributes cash and a new bmw to lottery participants in that code we study the effects of these shocks on lottery winners and their neighbors consistent with the life cycle hypothesis the effects on winners consumption are largely confined to cars and other durables consistent with the theory of in kind transfers the vast majority of bmw winners liquidate their bmws we do however detect substantial social effects of lottery winnings pcl nonparticipants who live next door to winners have significantly higher levels of car consumption than other nonparticipants

income shocks and suicides causal evidence from indonesia we examine how income shocks affect the suicide rate in indonesia we use a difference in differences approach exploiting the cash transfer s nationwide rollout and corroborate the findings using

does money matter the effects of cash transfers on child development in rural ecuador abstract a large body of research indicates that child development is sensitive to early life environments so that poor children are at higher risk for poor cognitive and behavioral outcomes these developmental outcomes are important determinants of success in adulthood yet remarkably little is known about whether poverty alleviation programs improve children s developmental outcomes we examine how a government run cash transfer program for poor mothers in rural ecuador influenced the development of young children random assignment at the parish level is used to identify program effects our data include a set of measures of cognitive ability that are not typically included in experimental or quasi experimental studies of the impact of cash transfers on child well being as well as a set of physical health measures that may be related to developmental outcomes the cash transfer program had positive although modest effects on the physical cognitive and socioemotional development of the poorest c

giving children a better start preschool attendance and school age profiles this brief summarizes the giving children a better start preschool attendance and school age profiles in uruguay for the period 1995 the author study the effect of pre primary education on children s subsequent school outcomes by exploiting a unique feature of the uruguayan household survey ech that collects retrospective information on preschool attendance in the context of a rapid expansion in the supply of pre primary places using a within household estimator we find small gains from preschool attendance at early ages that get magnified as children grow up by age 15 treated children have accumulated 0 8 extra years of education and are 27 percentage points more likely to be in school compared to their untreated siblings instrumental variables estimates that attempt to control for non random selection of siblings into preschool lead to similar results pre primary education appears as a successful and cost effective policy to prevent early grade failure and its long lasting consequences in low income countries

mobile money adoption and households vulnerability to shocks evidence from togo we investigate the determinants of mobile money adoption process and whether its use helps households in togo to be resilient to predictable and unpredictable life events using ordered logit and s

when the money runs out do cash transfers have sustained effects on human capital accumulation this study examines the medium term effects of a two year cash transfer program targeted to adolescent girls and young women significant declines in hiv prevalence teen pregnancy and early marriage among recipients of unconditional cash transfers ucts during the program evaporated quickly two years after the cessation of transfers however children born to uct beneficiaries during the program had significantly higher height for age z scores at follow up on the other hand conditional cash transfers ccts offered to out of school females at baseline produced a large increase in educational attainment and a sustained reduction in the total number of births but caused no gains in health labor market outcomes or empowerment the findings point to both the promise and the limitations of cash transfer programs for sustained gains in welfare among young women

moral hazard experimental evidence from tenancy contracts agricultural productivity is particularly low in developing countries output sharing rules that make farmers less than full residual claimants are seen as a potentially important driver of low agr

reshaping institutions evidence on aid impacts using a pre analysis plan this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled reshaping institutions evidence on aid impacts using a pre analysis plan conducted between 2005 and 2009 in sierra leone the study observed the impact of pre analysis plan pap on local institutions by imposing participation requirements for marginalized groups including women and test for learning by doing effects in sierra leone on the individual and village level requiring women and young adults to take on leadership positions participate in project meetings and sign off on project finances does not have any persistent effect on their participation in local decision making or attitudes regarding leadership ability the project successfully established village organizations and tools to manage the project the distributions of the project s benefits were equitable and leakage was minimal there was a significant positive impact on the stock and quality of local public infrastructure however there are no detectible changes in the ability to raise funds for local public goods decision making process or social norms and attitudes funding for the study derived from the gobifo project the institutional reform and capacity building project ircbp the world bank development impact evaluation dime the horace w goldsmith foundation the international growth center 3ie and the national bureau of economic research nber african successes project

payment mechanisms and antipoverty programs evidence from a mobile money cash transfer experiment in niger abstractcash transfers have become an increasingly important component of social protection policies in both developed and developing countries while such programs are often implemented electronically in developed countries in many developing countries with weak financial infrastructure such transfers are distributed manually resulting in significant costs to program recipients and the public sector alike the introduction of mobile money systems in many developing countries offers new opportunities for distributing cash transfers using data from a randomized experiment of a mobile money cash transfer program in niger we find evidence of benefits of this new system household diet diversity was 9 16 higher among households who received mobile transfers and children ate an additional one third of a meal per day these results can be partially attributed to time savings associated with mobile transfers as program recipients spent less time traveling to and waiting for their transfer they are also

beyond baseline and follow up the case for more t in experiments the vast majority of randomized experiments in economics rely on a single baseline and single follow up survey if multiple follow ups are conducted the reason is typically to examine the trajectory of impact effects so that in effect only one follow up round is being used to estimate each treatment effect of interest while such a design is suitable for study of highly autocorrelated and relatively precisely measured outcomes in the health and education domains this paper makes the case that it is unlikely to be optimal for measuring noisy and relatively less autocorrelated outcomes such as business profits household incomes and expenditures and episodic health outcomes taking multiple measurements of such outcomes at relatively short intervals allows the researcher to average out noise increasing power when the outcomes have low autocorrelation it can make sense to do no baseline at all moreover the author shows how for such outcomes more power can be achieved with multiple follow ups than allocating the same total sample size over a single follow up and baseline the analysis highlights the large gains in power from ancova rather than difference in differences when autocorrelations are low and a baseline is taken the paper discusses the issues involved in multiple measurements and makes recommendations for the design of experiments and related non experimental impact evaluations

an experiment on cash and in kind transfers with application to food assistance programs the impact of providing food assistance in kind via food stamps or restricted debit cards vs cash has long been a subject of debate prior efforts to causally identify the effects of the two types of transfers have been hindered by concerns over non random selection into assistance programs misreporting of program benefits and identification of inframarginal households who theoretically should treat cash and in kind transfers identically this paper reports the results of an economic experiment designed to cleanly test some conceptual issues associated with in kind vs cash giving in a lunchroom meal setting given current debates about the healthiness of food assistance recipients diets we also consider the impacts of placing restrictions on in kind transfers that either prohibit soda purchases with the transfer or require the transfer be spent on fruits and vegetables overall we find that as theory predicts in kind transfers have the same effect on food expenditures as an unrestricted cash transfer for inframarginal consumers and for extramarginal consumers food expenditures are higher for in kind than cash transfers participants also respond to the fruit and vegetable restriction as theory would predict however in contrast to the theoretical prediction the soda restriction reduces soda expenditures for more than half the inframarginal consumers

dutch disease economics and oil syndrome an empirical study abstract this paper integrates the existing dutch disease models of an oil boom into a reduced form three sector model and estimates it for five developing oil exporting countries having significant agricultural and manufacturing sectors time series annual data for the period 1966 1986 are used for algeria ecuador indonesia nigeria and venezuela their output composition is altered by an increase in their oil revenues the spending effect and in the world price of manufactured goods relative to agricultural products the world price effect both effects expand the manufacturing sectors of these countries and contract their agricultural sectors the spending effect expands their nontraded sectors whereas the world price effect may expand or contract them the opposite results are implied for the oil collapse of the 1980s

the oregon health insurance experiment evidence from the first year in 2008 a group of uninsured low income adults in oregon was selected by lottery to be given the chance to apply for medicaid this lottery provides an opportunity to gauge the effects of expanding access to public health insurance on the health care use financial strain and health of low income adults using a randomized controlled design in the year after random assignment the treatment group selected by the lottery was about 25 percentage points more likely to have insurance than the control group that was not selected we find that in this first year the treatment group had substantively and statistically significantly higher health care utilization including primary and preventive care as well as hospitalizations lower out of pocket medical expenditures and medical debt including fewer bills sent to collection and better self reported physical and mental health than the control group

real exchange rate behavior and economic performance in ldcs in recent years policy discussions have included increasing references to real exchange rate rer stability and correct exchange rate alignment as crucial conditions to improve economic performance in less developed countries ldcs 1 evidence from latin american asian and african countries is often quoted to support the view that the link between rer behavior and economic performance is strong it is argued that while unstable rers inhibited export growth in some of latin america their stability was fundamental in promoting east asian expansion in many african countries on the other hand persistently misaligned local currencies harmed the development of agriculture reducing domestic food supply 2 but in spite of its importance no empirical work has been attempted either to test the relationship between rer behavior and performance indicators at a broad multicountry level or to investigate the sources of rer variability and misalignment in ldcs the theoretical literature on rer determinants has been recently surveyed by sebastian edwards 3 he distinguishes between equilibrium and disequilibrium rers and between external and domestic rer determinants although domestic policies are often said to account for significant rer variations empirical work has only concentrated on the effect of nominal devaluations4 or speculative crises arising from expansionary monetary policies in a system of fixed ex

the long run impact of cash transfers to poor families lleras muney we estimate the long run impact of cash transfers to poor families on children s longevity educational attainment nutritional status and income in adulthood to do so we collected individual level administrative records of applicants to the mothers pension program the first government sponsored welfare program in the united states 1911 1935 and matched them to census wwii and death records male children of accepted applicants lived one year longer than those of rejected mothers they also obtained onethird more years of schooling were less likely to be underweight and had higher income in adulthood than children of rejected mothers jel i12 i14 i18 i32 i38 j16 n32

pawnbroking in america the economics of a forgotten credit market this paper surveys the role of pawnbroking in u s credit markets among the findings are pawnshops provide very small secured loans to millions of low income americans excluded from bank and finance company credit most states regulate pawnshop finance charges with the majority setting ceilings between 36 and 240 percent apr over the past century pawnbroking has grown dramatically in the southern and central mountain states while shrinking in the northeast this article offers explanations for these trends as well as for the recent nationwide boom in the industry copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

returns to capital in microenterprises evidence from a field experiment small and informal firms account for a large share of employment in developing countries the rapid expansion of microfinance services is based on the belief that these firms have productive investment opportunities and can enjoy high returns to capital if given the opportunity however measuring the return to capital is complicated by unobserved factors such as entrepreneurial ability and demand shocks which are likely to be correlated with capital stock the authors use a randomized experiment to overcome this problem and to measure the return to capital for the average microenterprise in their sample regardless of whether they apply for credit they accomplish this by providing cash and equipment grants to small firms in sri lanka and measuring the increase in profits arising from this exogenous positive shock to capital stock after controlling for possible spillover effects the authors find the average real return to capital to be 5 7 percent a month substantially higher than the market interest rate they then examine the heterogeneity of treatment effects to explore whether missing credit markets or missing insurance markets are the most likely cause of the high returns returns are found to vary with entrepreneurial ability and with measures of other sources of cash within the household but not to vary with risk aversion or uncertainty

efficient intra household allocations a general characterization and empirical tests the neoclassical theory of demand applies to individuals yet in empirical work it is usually taken as valid for households with many members this paper explores what the theory of individuals implies for households that have more than one member we make minimal assumptions about how the individual members of the household resolve conflicts all we assume is that however decisions are made outcomes are efficient we refer to this as the collective setting we show that in the collective setting household demands must satisfy a symmetry and rank condition on the slutsky matrix we also present some further results on the effects on demands of variables that do not modify preferences but that do affect how decisions are made we apply our theory to a series of surveys of household expenditures from canada the tests of the usual symmetry conditions are rejected for two person households but not for one person households we also show that income pooling is rejected for two person households we then test for our collective setting conditions on the couples data none of the collective setting restrictions are rejected we conclude that the collective setting is a plausible and tractable next step to take in the analysis of household behavior

wealth health and child development evidence from administrative data on swedish lottery players we use administrative data on swedish lottery players to estimate the causal impact of substantial wealth shocks on players own health and their children s health and developmental outcomes our estimation sample is large virtually free of attrition and allows us to control for the factors conditional on which the prizes were randomly assigned in adults we find no evidence that wealth impacts mortality or health care utilization with the possible exception of a small reduction in the consumption of mental health drugs our estimates allow us to rule out effects on 10 year mortality one sixth as large as the crosssectional wealth mortality gradient in our intergenerational analyses we find that wealth increases children s health care utilization in the years following the lottery and may also reduce obesity risk the effects on most other child outcomes including drug consumption scholastic performance and skills can usually be bounded to a tight interval around zero overall our findings suggest that in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets causal effects of wealth are not a major source of the wealth mortality gradients nor of the observed relationships between child developmental outcomes and household income jel codes i10 i14 j24

testing among models of intrahousehold resource allocation households are the locus for much economic decision making households function as producers investors in human and physical capital managers of risk and as consumers many resources are allocated within households and the effects of many policies depend on the dynamics of household decision making for example household decisions about allocating food among individual household members may determine who benefits from programs to improve health nutrition or welfare in many microeconomic studies the household is treated as an individual for analytical purposes in other words it is assumed that a household acts as a single entity with a single set of preferences recently however a number of economists have recognized that households are sites of conflict as well as cooperation and have begun to use new classes of models to explain how resources are allocated among household members this literature has especially improved our understanding of households in which income is not completely pooled in such a setting standard household models may offer misleading conclusions about the effects of policies on individual household members i this paper goes beyond recent surveys of intrahousehold issue by explicitly examining the assumptions predictions and empirical implications of different intrahousehold models in particular it analyzes empirical tests that distinguish among competing models by clarifying the similarities and differences among alternative models this paper also clarifies what has actually been demonstrated and what has not been demonstrated by previous empirical studies in so doing the paper points to specific topics in need of further research this paper is organized as follows section 2 analyzes the assumptions and predictions of each of the five main classes of intrahousehold resource allocation models section 3 describes empirical tests of these assumptions along with an analysis of empirical work that has been generated sections 4 and 5 discuss the questions that remain unanswered and directions for future research

cash transfers and health evidence from tanzania how do conditional cash transfers impact health related outcomes this paper examines the 2010 randomized introduction of a program in tanzania and finds nuanced impacts an initial surge in clinic visits after 1 5 years due to more visits by those already complying with program health conditions and by non compliers disappeared after 2 5 years largely due to compliers reducing above minimal visits the study finds significant increases in take up of health insurance and the likelihood of seeking treatment when ill health improvements were concentrated among children ages 0 5 years rather than the elderly and took time to materialize the study finds no improvements after 1 5 years but 0 76 fewer sick days per month after 2 5 years suggesting the importance of looking beyond short term impacts reductions in sick days were largest in villages with more baseline health workers per capita consistent with improvements being sensitive to capacity constraints these results are robust to adjustments for multiple hypothesis testing

reducing crime and violence experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in liberia abstract we show that a number of noncognitive skills and preferences including patience and identity are malleable in adults and that investments in them reduce crime and violence we recruited criminally engaged men and randomized one half to eight weeks of cognitive behavioral therapy designed to foster self regulation patience and a noncriminal identity and lifestyle we also randomized 200 grants cash alone and therapy alone initially reduced crime and violence but effects dissipated over time when cash followed therapy crime and violence decreased dramatically for at least a year we hypothesize that cash reinforced therapy s impacts by prolonging learning by doing lifestyle changes and self investment jel d12 d83 h23 i32 k42 o15 o17

income timing and liquidity constraints evidence from a randomized field experiment abstract people in developing countries sometimes desire deferred income streams which replace more frequent income flows with a single later lump sum we study the effects of short term wage deferral using a randomized experiment with participants in a temporary cash for work program workers who are assigned to lump sum payments are five percentage points more likely to purchase a high return investment we discuss the role of both barriers to saving and credit constraints in explaining our results while stated preferences for deferred payments suggest a role for savings constraints the evidence is also consistent with a simpler model of credit constraints alone

oil exports real exchange rate appreciation and demand for imports in nigeria the recession in the oil market since 1981 has drastically reduced the foreign exchange earnings of nigeria as a result the country has faced a severe problem of adjustment to reduced export earnings at a time when payments on its 20 billion external debt have increased in designing a policy to restore balance of payments equilibrium nigeria like many other less developed countries in its position faces two important questions first to what extent the rate of growth of the economy would have to be lowered in order to bring equilibrium to the balance of payments and second to what extent real devaluation is likely to help in the process since nigeria faces a given price for its exports 95 of which is oil and production of oil does not use many domestic resources export revenues in terms of foreign currency are in effect exogenous and therefore the weight of adjustment must fall on imports the search for answers to the above questions thus leads directly to the investigation of the size of income and price elasticities of demand for imports this article presents estimates of an import demand function for nigeria based on annual data for 1963 82 the main finding of the article is that demand for imports is elastic with respect to price but inelastic with respect to income this implies that contrary to expectations the phenomenal rise in nigerian imports in the 1970s may have been a result of real appreciation rather than increase in oil revenues between 1972 and 1981 nigerian imports in constant dollars increased by a factor of five an average annual increase of 33 but during the same period non oil gdp in constant prices increased by only 5 7 per year and gross domestic income gdy total gdp adjusted for improvements in the terms of trade increased by 8 7 per year as a result the ratio of imports to gdy increased from 6 in 1972 to 18 in 1981 in contrast the decline in

ethical issues in bankruptcy a jewish perspective the ethical issues involved in bankruptcy affect the debtor the creditor and the society in which they operate facing the debtor is his responsibility to pay back the loans and credit extended to him while the creditor has to decide whether or not to press his legal rights irrespective of the consequences to the debtor society will have to determine to what extent if any it is prepared or obligated to fund the rehabilitation of the debtor and those employees whose employment is terminated as a result of the bankruptcy these issues will be determined according to the value structure of the particular souly in which debtor and creditor operate this paper views the issues in a jewish perspective debtors are considered to always be liable for their debts and there is a moral shame attached to bankruptcy except in those cases where it is caused by natural disasters while creditors are taught and encouraged to voluntarily waive their rights this is considered charity with all its negative overtones the courts are obligated to review the debtors assets and sell them if necessary to meet the creditors loans leaving only basic necessities for minimal living of the debtor and his family society however including the creditor a part of the group are obligated to fund the rehabilitation of the debtor either through its interest free loan charity or the provision of alternative employment these may be funded out of communal taxes

intra household resource allocation an inferential approach if household income is pooled and then allocated to maximize welfare then income under the control of mothers and fathers should have the same impact on demand with survey data on family health and nutrition in brazil the equality of parental income effects is rejected unearned income in the hands of a mother has a bigger effect on her family s health than income under the control of a father for child survival probabilities the effect is almost twenty times bigger the common preference or neoclassical model of the household is rejected if unearned income is measured with error and income is pooled then the ratio of maternal to paternal income effects should be the same equality of the ratios cannot be rejected there is also evidence for gender preference mothers prefer to devote resources to improving the nutritional status of their daughters fathers to sons

neither a borrower nor a lender be an economic analysis of interest restrictions and usury laws interest rate restrictions are pervasive and important regulations this article suggests that these restrictions served in part as a primitive means of social insurance lowering the rate of interest effectively transfers income to states of the world where individuals have a high marginal utility of income and are borrowers from states of the world where individuals have a low marginal utility of income and are lenders the model predicts that interest rate restrictions will be tighter when income inequality is high and impermanent and when growth rates are low furthermore loan supply must be somewhat inelastic data from u s states support a connection between inequality income shocks and tighter usury laws usury laws were also stricter in older more stable communities the history of usury laws suggests that this social insurance mechanism is one reason usury laws exist and persist but this history also suggests that usury laws have played many roles across time and that no one theory can po

terms of trade shocks and structural adjustment in a small open economy abstract a three sector three factor general equilibrium model of dutch disease is developed providing yet another explanation for the expansion of the manufacturing sector in most of the oil exporting countries and the concurrent decline in their agricultural sectors in the 1970s the sectoral structure of the oil exporting small open economy is altered by an increase in its national income the spending effect and in the world price of manufactured goods relative to agricultural products the world price effect while both effects undermine the agricultural sector the world price effect may offset the negative impact of the spending effect on the manufacturing sector resulting in its expansion the short run analysis is of the standard jones specific factors model in the long run the capital rental and the price of the non traded good are determined by world prices and the transfer argument for the dutch disease real appreciation the rise in the relative price of the non traded good due to higher income completely disappears also demand effects alter non traded and manufacturing output but have no impact on the agricultural sector the world price effect is the sole cause of the decline in the agricultural sector in the long run

nigeria during and after the oil boom a policy comparison with indonesia nigeria and indonesia provide an interesting contrast with regard to performance and policy during and after the oil boom roughly a decade after the first oil shock nigeria is faced with several economic problems including a serious decline in its agricultural sector and a deteriorating external debt situation while some decline in the nonoil traded goods sector reflects efficient adjustment to the oil boom policy with regard to public expenditure exchange rates pricing and the trade regime could exacerbate such decline and impede readjustment as the boom subsides the links between oil prices deficits inflation and real exchange rate appreciation are analyzed and nigerian and indonesian fiscal and exchange rate and agricultural and foreign borrowing strategies are compared it is concluded that with the exception of cuts in the deficit since 1984 nigerian policy following the boom has not been conducive to adjustment to the current period of low oil prices and high real interest rates corrective measures and policy options are discussed

no longer trapped promoting entrepreneurship through cash transfers to ultra poor women in northern kenya we examine the short to medium run impacts of the rural entrepreneur access program a poverty graduation program that promotes entrepreneurship among ultra poor women in arid and semi arid northern kenya a context prone to poverty traps the program relies on cash transfers rather than asset transfers in addition to business skills training business mentoring and savings participation in each of the program s three rounds was randomly determined through a public lottery in the short to medium run we find that the program has a positive and significant impact on income savings and asset accumulation similar to more traditional poverty graduation programs that rely on asset transfers

control of resources bargaining power and the demand of food evidence from progresa abstract i use a structural model of households to recover how much resources each individual controls in the context of the mexican progresa program i find that the eligibility to receive the cash transfers induces a redistribution of resources from the father to both the mother and children although the mother is the one benefiting the most with these information i compute individual poverty rates and quantify to what extent the program reduces within household inequality i also combine these measures to construct a proxy for women s bargaining power and using causal identification techniques i estimate its direct effects on household demand for food exploiting random assignment of the cash transfers as an instrumental variable for the treatment of interest i show that mothers having majority control of household resources relative to fathers increase food consumption as a share of the household budget by 6 5 8 3 i use these estimates to argue that by knowing i the distribution of pre program resources inside the household and ii how much influence each decision maker can have on the desired policy outcome a policymaker can improve the cost effectiveness of a cash transfer program by targeting the cash to resource shares in addition to gender

cash or condition evidence from a cash transfer experiment this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled cash or condition evidence from a cash transfer experiment conducted from 2008 to the end of 2009 in malawi the study observed the impact of conditionality in cash transfer programs with two distinct interventions unconditional transfers uct arm and transfers conditional on school attendance cct arm targeted at adolescent girls in malawi on individual level dropout rates declined in both treatment arms however the uct arm is 43 percent as large as the cct arm the fraction of days attended in the cct arm is significantly higher than the uct cognitive ability math and english scores significantly improve for the cct but not for the uct probability of pregnancy and marriage were much lower in the uct arm the delays in marriage and fertility in the uct arm are found entirely among adolescent girls who dropped out of school after the start of the intervention improvements in human capital for the recipients of the cct are achieved at the cost of worse outcomes for people who drop out of school funding for the study derived from the global development network bill and melinda gates foundation national bureau of economic research nber africa project world bank research support budget grant world bank knowledge for change trust fund world development report 2007 small grants fund spanish impact evaluation fund and gender action plan trust fund

direct and indirect effects of malawi s public works program on food security labor intensive public works programs are important social protection tools in low income settings intended to supplement income of poor households and improve public infrastructure in this evaluation of the malawi social action fund an at scale government operated program across and within village randomization is used to estimate effects on food security and use of fertilizer there is no evidence that the program improves food security and some negative spillovers to untreated households these disappointing results hold even under modifications to the design of the program to offer work during the lean rather than harvest season or increase the frequency of payments

the effect of food stamp cashout on food expenditures an assessment of the findings from four demonstrations using findings from four demonstrations we examine estimates of the effect on household food expenditures of converting food stamps into a cash transfer we provide arguments for why the estimate produced by one of the demonstrations should be regarded as an outlier the disparity in the difference in means estimates from the remaining three demonstrations is reduced when each is normalized by dividing by the average value of benefits in the respective demonstration site the normalized estimates imply a reduction in food expenditures of between 18 and 28 cents for each dollar of food stamps cashed out at the aggregate level these estimates imply that nationwide cashout would result in a reduction in household food spending of between 4 2 and 6 5 billion dollars whereas the associated reduction in the cost of administering the food stamp program would be about 0 3 billion dollars

the labeling effect of a child benefit system child benefit systems exist in many countries while they show a lot of differences in terms of eligibility rules amounts involved and implementation tax deduction tax credit or direct benefit the common motivation for their existence is to increase children s welfare in the dutch child benefit system the case i focus on in this paperone of the parents usually the mother is entitled to an untaxed child benefit amount which only depends on the child s age and the number of children in the household thus child support does not depend on household income marital status or labor market status as a result child benefit is exogenous to the household given the presence of children this is in contrast with the situation in many other countries including germany france the united kingdom and the united states where government provided child support is partly means tested see jonathan bradshaw et al 1993 in the netherlands child benefit is generally a nonnegligible addition to the household income the median share of child benefit in the total net income of households with children is 8 percent on the national level expenditures on child benefits amount to 1 2 percent of gnp the use of the child benefit is completely at the discretion of the parent there are no legal requirements that a certain amount be spent on particular goods or services nor does the government provide any guidelines regarding expenditure on children a policy question that arises is to what extent children benefit from child benefits standard microeconomic demand theory allows no role for effects of the composition of income given the fungibility of income sources it is only the sum of income components that is relevant in explaining expenditure patterns thus within that framework the answer would be that the marginal propensity to consume child goods from one guilder of child benefits is no different than from one guilder of any other income source in the more general class of gametheoretic models of household behavior however the composition of household income will generally affect expenditure patterns see e g shelly j lundberg and robert a pollak 1993 and martin browning et al 1994 if fathers and mothers have different preferences and mothers have control over child benefits the effect of child benefits on expenditures will differ from the effect of other income sources lundberg et al 1997 provide empirical evidence showing that a transfer of control over child benefits from fathers to mothers in the united kingdom due to a change in legislation resulted in a significant increase in expenditures on child clothing daniela del boca and christopher j flinn 1994 have analyzed the effect of income composition on expenditure decisions of divorced mothers they find that the coefficients associated with child support and alimony income differ from those for other income in engel curves for expenditures on childspecific goods their results can be explained in terms of a noncooperative nash model in which the child support transfer decisions of the noncustodial father and the expenditure decisions of the mother are determined simultaneously in contrast to del boca and flinn s analysis in which child support is a decision variable the present paper focuses on the possible differential effect of government provided child support which is truly exogenous in this paper i analyze the effects of child benefits on expenditures by running regressions in which child benefit enters as a separate explanatory variable the enipirical analysis is based on a time series of 17 cross section consumer expenditure surveys in the netherlands covering the period 1978 through 1994 it is important to note that in a single cross section it department of economics university of groningen p o b 800 9700 av groningen the netherlands e mail p kooreman eco rug nl i am indebted to two anonymous referees for constructive comments helpful comments were also provided by rob alessie maarten allers chris bojke werner de bondt bert schoonbeek and tom wansbeek i thank vincent linderhof for organizing the data financial support was provided by the dutch organization for scientific research nwo homes project grant

the impact of conditional cash transfers on consumption and investment in nicaragua abstract this article examines the impact of a nicaraguan conditional cash transfer programme on measures of expenditures and productive investment despite clear evidence from a randomised evaluation that the programme increased current expenditures there is little evidence that it increased agricultural or non agricultural investment an estimated marginal propensity to consume out of the transfers of nearly one combined with no effect of cumulative past transfers on current consumption corroborate the direct evidence on investment in contrast to gains made in human capital investment the potential for long term increases in consumption as a result of other forms of increased investment may be limited

the demand for food and calories we investigate nutrition and expenditure in rural maharashtra in india we estimate that the elasticity of calorie consumption with respect to total expenditure is 0 3 0 5 a range that is in accord with conventional wisdom the elasticity declines only slowly with levels of living and is far from the value of zero suggested by a recent revisionist literature in these indian data the calories necessary for a day s activity cost less than 5 percent of the daily wage which makes it implausible that income is constrained by nutrition rather than the other way around

tying odysseus to the mast evidence from a commitment savings product in the philippines we designed a commitment savings product for a philippine bank and implemented it using a randomized control methodology the savings product was intended for individuals who want to commit now to restrict access to their savings and who were sophisticated enough to engage in such a mechanism we conducted a baseline survey on 1777 existing or former clients of a bank one month later we offered the commitment product to a randomly chosen subset of 710 clients 202 28 4 percent accepted the offer and opened the account in the baseline survey we asked hypothetical time discounting questions women who exhibited a lower discount rate for future relative to current trade offs and hence potentially have a preference for commitment were indeed significantly more likely to open the commitment savings account after twelve months average savings balances increased by 81 percentage points for those clients assigned to the treatment group relative to those assigned to the control group we conclude that the savings response represents a lasting change in savings and not merely a short term response to a new product

rethinking economic development i provide a summary reflection and assessment of the current state of economic development in both the policy and academic worlds in terms of development policy currently the primary focus is on policy interventions namely foreign aid aimed at fixing the deficiencies of developing countries academic research also has a similar focus except with an emphasis in rigorous evaluation of interventions to estimate causal effects a standard set of versatile quantitative tools is used e g experimental and quasi experimental methods which can be easily applied in a range of settings to estimate the causal effects of policies which are typically presumed to be similar across contexts in this article i take a step back and ask whether the current practices are the best that we can do are foreign aid and policy interventions the best options we have for poverty alleviation what else can be done is our current research strategy characterized by rigorous but a lack of context specific analysis the best method of analysis is there a role for other research methods for a deeper understanding of the local context and for more collaboration with local scholars repenser le developpement economiquee dans cet article je propose un apercu une reflexion et une evaluation de l etat actuel du developpement economique a la fois dans les spheres politiques et universitaires en matiere de developpement economique l attention est principalement portee sur l intervention politique c est a dire l aide exterieure visant a corriger les defaillances des pays en developpement les recherches universitaires y portent une attention similaire mais en mettant davantage l accent sur l evaluation rigoureuse de ces memes interventions pour en mesurer les effets de causalite a cette fin un ensemble d outils quantitatifs et modulables standard sont utilises notamment par l entremise de methodes experimentales et quasi experimentales pouvant facilement s appliquer a une vaste gamme de situations et ce aux fins d evaluations des liens de causalite engendres par ces politiques liens habituellement consideres comme similaires d un contexte a l autre dans cet article je prends un peu de recul pour m interroger sur la pertinence des pratiques actuelles les interventions politiques et l aide exterieure offrent elles les meilleures options pour reduire la pauvrete que pouvons nous faire d autre notre strategie de recherche actuelle caracterisee par des analyses rigoureuses mais peu adaptees a des contextes specifiques est elle la meilleure d autres methodes de recherche peuvent elles permettre de mieux comprendre les contextes regionaux et favoriser une meilleure collaboration avec les intellectuels locaux

governance and the effectiveness of public health subsidies evidence from ghana kenya and uganda abstract distributing subsidized health products through existing health infrastructure could substantially and cost effectively improve health in sub saharan africa there is however widespread concern that poor governance in particular limited health worker accountability seriously undermines the effectiveness of subsidy programs we audit targeted bed net distribution programs to quantify the extent of agency problems we find that around 80 of the eligible receive the subsidy as intended and up to 15 of subsidies are leaked to ineligible people supplementing the program with simple financial or monitoring incentives for health workers does not improve performance further and is thus not cost effective in this context

risk sharing and transactions costs evidence from kenya s mobile money revolution we explore the impact of reduced transaction costs on risk sharing by estimating the effects of a mobile money innovation on consumption in our panel sample adoption of the innovation increased from 43 to 70 percent we find that while shocks reduce consumption by 7 percent for nonusers the consumption of user households is unaffected the mechanisms underlying these consumption effects are increases in remittances received and the diversity of senders we report robustness checks supporting these results and use the four fold expansion of the mobile money agent network as a source of exogenous variation in access to the innovation jel e42 g22 o16 o17 z13 in developing countries informal networks provide an important means by which individuals and households share risk though the insurance they provide is often incomplete economists have proposed a number of reasons for this incompleteness including information asymmetries which manifest in problems of moral hazard and limited commitment both of which induce positive correlations between realized income and consumption in this article we emphasize a complementary source of incompleteness transaction costs literally the costs of transferring resources between individuals we test the impact of transaction costs on risk sharing by analyzing data from a large panel household survey that we designed and administered in kenya over a three year period to capture the expansion of mobile money this financial innovation has allowed individuals to transfer purchasing power by simple short messaging service sms technology and has dramatically reduced the cost of sending money across large distances mobile money is a recent innovation in developing economies one of the first and most successful examples to date is kenya s m pesa 1 in just four years after its

training wages and sample selection estimating sharp bounds on treatment effects this paper empirically assesses the wage effects of the job corps program one of the largest federally funded job training programs in the u s even with the aid of a randomized experiment the impact of a training program on wages is difficult to study because of sample selection a pervasive problem in applied microeconometric research wage rates are only observed for those who are employed and employment status itself may be affected by the training program this paper develops an intuitive trimming procedure for bounding average treatment effects in the presence of sample selection in contrast to existing methods the procedure requires neither exclusion restrictions nor a bounded support for the outcome of interest identification results estimators and their asymptotic distribution are presented the bounds suggest that the program raised wages consistent with the notion that the job corps raises earnings by increasing human capital rather than solely through encouraging work the estimator is generally applicable to typical treatment evaluation problems in which there is nonrandom sample selection attrition copyright wiley blackwell