federal borrowing and short term interest rates this paper is an empirical study of the effects of federal government borrowing on short term interest rates it is often taken for granted that increases in federal borrowing cause higher short term rates but little empirical support exists for this assumption in fact this paper demonstrates that federal borrowing is a relatively unimportant and insignificant determinant of short term rates an implication of this result is that financial crowding out effects of government deficit spending may not be overly large postulates about interest rate behavior are the driving force behind many hypotheses of the crowding out literature however these interest rate effects have received relatively little direct attention in this literature this is surprising since as a general rule the stronger the interest rate effect is the stronger the crowding out effect will be an empirical determination of the size of the deficit spending interest rate effect gives some empirical content to the crowding out controversy in section ii of this paper the relationship between federal borrowing interest rates and crowding out is discussed and a loanable funds model of short term interest rates is developed in section iii the regression model is generated and tested the essential result is that variation in three month treasury bill rates is caused by expected inflation changes in the monetary base and by changes in the level of economic activity there is no statistically significant relation between short term interest rates and federal borrowing in section iv additional regression tests are performed which confirm the results in section iii and the problem of simultaneous equation bias is discussed the final part of the paper is a discussion of some implications of the results reported in sections iii and iv

promoting network competition by regulating termination charges abstract this paper contributes to the policy debate about the optimal termination charge when penetration rates are explicitly taken into account although lowering termination charges towards cost leads to more efficient usage its impact on consumer surplus is ambiguous since it induces an increase in fixed subscription fee through the so called waterbed effect we show that a reduction in termination charge below cost has two opposing effects on consumer surplus it softens competition but also helps to internalize network externalities hence it can decrease or increase penetration depending on whether or not the first effect dominates the second we show that the first effect dominates the second when networks are weak substitutes or the penetration rate is high

network competition and interconnection with heterogeneous subscribers abstract this paper analyses two way access pricing in a telecommunications market where consumers are heterogeneous in their demand for calls and firms are allowed to use non linear tariffs we first investigate how the presence of access charges affects the tariffs offered by firms in symmetric equilibrium next we show that under certain conditions each firm s profit is independent of the level of reciprocal access charge and therefore collusion using access charges is not sustainable this result suggests that efficient call allocations can be achieved under a minimal regulatory intervention i e recommending firms set access charges equal to call termination cost

a retail benchmarking approach to efficient two way access pricing no termination based price discrimination jeon gratefully acknowledges financial support from the spanish government under sej2006 09993 econ and a ramon y cajal grant hurkens gratefully acknowledges the financial support from the spanish ministry of science and technology under sej2006 01717 both authors acknowledge support through grant consolider ingenio 2010 csd2006 00016 and through the net institute netinst org

using bill and keep interconnect arrangements to soften network competition abstract this paper demonstrates that low below marginal cost interconnect or access charges can be used to sustain high subscription prices under network competition with two part tariffs and price discrimination this result stands in contrast to other results in the literature suggesting that high interconnect charges can play a collusive role

budget deficits and interest rates in the united states in this paper an attempt has been made to reexamine the effect of budget deficits in the united states on interest rates unlike the previous studies which use only one definition of the dependent variable we have used all three namely the nominal and the ex post and the ex ante real interest rate further unlike previous studies we considered both short term and long term interest rates our results provide absolutely no support for the proposition that federal deficits affect interest rates and thus contradict the recent findings by cebula 1987 and kolluri and giannaros 1987 finally the paper provides some further support for the inverted fisher hypothesis proposed by carmichael and stebbing 1983

competitive price discrimination we model firms as supplying utility directly to consumers the equilibrium outcome of competition in utility space depends on the relationship u between profit and average utility per consumer public policy constraints on the deals firms may offer affect equilibrium outcomes via their effect on u f rom this perspective we examine the profit utility and welfare implications of price discrimination policies in an oligopolistic framework we also show that an equilibrium outcome of competitive nonlinear pricing when consumers have private information about their tastes is for firms to offer efficient two part tariffs

environmental valuation to use or not to use a comparative study of the united states and europe valuation methods have been used for five main purposes in environmental decision making cost benefit analysis cba of projects cba of new regulations natural resource damage assessment environmental costing and environmental accounting the relatively lower importance attached to economic efficiency in environmental decision making in most european countries compared to the u s a both legally and in practice might account for our general finding that there are very few valuation studies in europe which have served as a decisive basis for environmental policy and regulations however with eu s goal to establish environmentally adjusted national accounts and to apply cba to environmental policy and regulations time seems ripe for an increased use of valuation techniques in europe

network competition ii price discrimination our companion article developed a clear conceptual framework of negotiated or regulated interconnection agreements between rival operators and studied competition between interconnected networks under the assumption of nondiscriminatory pricing this article relaxes this assumption and allows networks to charge different prices for calls terminating on the subscriber s network and those terminating on a rivals network this creates a price differential between services that are identical for the consumer and generates network externalities despite network interconnection we show that in both the mature and entry phases of the industry the nature of competition is substantially affected by such price discrimination

budget deficits and interest rates a fresh perspective we extend the literature on budget deficits and interest rates in three ways we examine both advanced and emerging economies and for the first time a large emerging market panel explore interactions to explain some of the heterogeneity in the literature and apply system gmm there is overall a highly significant positive effect of budget deficits on interest rates but the effect depends on interaction terms and is only significant under one of several conditions deficits are high mostly domestically financed or interact with high domestic debt financial openness is low interest rates are liberalized or financial depth is low

network competition in nonlinear pricing previous research assuming linear pricing has argued that telecommunications networks may use a high access charge as an instrument of collusion i show that this conclusion is difficult to maintain when operators compete in nonlinear pricing i as long as subscription demand is inelastic profits can remain independent of the access charge even when customers are heterogeneous and networks engage in second degree price discrimination ii when demand for subscriptions is elastic networks may increase profits by agreeing on an access charge below marginal cost relative to cost based access pricing welfare is typically increased by setting the access charge above marginal cost

nonlinear pricing with random participation the canonical selection contracting programme takes the agent s participation decision as deterministic and finds the optimal contract typically satisfying this constraint for the worst type upon weakening this assumption of known reservation values by introducing independent randomness into the agents outside options we find that some of the received wisdom from mechanism design and nonlinear pricing is not robust and the richer model which allows for stochastic participation affords a more general empirical specification we develop a multidimensional methodology for addressing this class of problems providing two important applications to nonlinear pricing first with nonlinear pricing by a monopolist the familiar nodistortion at the top result persists but in tandem with the surprising conclusion that there is either no distortion at the bottom or bunching second in a simple model of product differentiated duopolists competing with nonlinear pricing we show that generally the duopoly outcome is qualitatively similar to the monopoly outcome however when marginal costs are symmetric and competition is sufficiently intense distortions disappear and the equilibrium outcome takes a remarkably simple form efficient quality allocations with cost plus fee pricing

national accounts and environmental resources in the paper optimal growth theory is used to derive the appropriate definition of the net national product concept when there are environmental resources and environmental damage to take into account the basic conclusions are that conventional defined np should be corrected by deducting environmental damage and adding the value of the net change of all resources

structural federal deficits and interest rates some causality and co integration tests the relationship between federal budget deficits and interest rates has been the focus of extensive research recently cebula 4 examined this relationship empirically and concluded that the federal budget deficit does in fact exercise a positive and significant impact upon the nominal moody s aaa rated corporate bond rate 4 208 such a finding is at odds with the great majority of recent empirical studies in this area if valid this finding assigns to large deficits significant adverse effects on both private investment crowding out and on trade balance via an overvalued dollar given these profound public policy implications cebula s finding warrants further examination

government debt government spending and private sector behavior a current period tax reduction financed by issuing government debt shifts the timing of tax collection from the current period to the future if the future taxes implied by government debt are not fully perceived and discounted by the private sector there will be a net wealth effect that increases private sector consumption thus reducing capital accumulation and growth if on the other hand the implied future taxes are perceived and discounted by the private sector the current period tax reduction will be used to increase private saving to pay for the future taxes and government debt will be absorbed without any real effects on the economy the effects of government spending financed by current period taxation also depend upon private sector perceptions 2 if the benefits of government spending are ignored private sector consumption will decrease in accordance with the reduction in permanent disposable income to the extent that government spending is on consumption type goods that are perceived as substitutes for privately provided consumption goods there will be a relatively greater reduction in private sector consumption to the extent that government spending is on investment type goods yielding future goods and services that are perceived as substitutes for future privately provided consumption goods there will be a relatively smaller reduction in private sector consumption the standard approach to modeling private sector consumption saving behavior involves a rather asymmetric set of assumptions as to how the private sector perceives the various elements of government fiscal policy 3 current period taxes are assumed to be fully perceived but current period government spending is implicitly assumed to be completely ignored by the private sector in considering permanent personal disposable income the private sector is assumed to be forward looking in its assessment of income and taxation the stock of government debt is nevertheless included as part of the stock of private wealth the implicit assumption associate professor of economics graduate school of business university of chicago 1101 east 58th street chicago il 60637 i thank eugene fama levis kochin michael mussa paul evans and an anonymous referee for helpful comments i am particularly grateful to daniel benjamin for contributing many hours of discussion and laura lahaye who was a research assistant and valuable adviser on earlier drafts the theoretical debate on the burden of the debt has been long standing gerald o driscoll 1977 documents ricardo s nineteenth century position robert barro 1974 reopened the debate by introducing the fundamental issue of intergenerational transfers also discussed in merton miller and charles upton 1974 the empirical side of the debate was initiated by levis kochin s 1974 attempt to test for the effects of deficits on consumption and by martin feldstein s 1974 attempt to test for the effects of social security wealth on consumption other empirical contributions include jess yawitz and laurence meyer 1976 myself 1978 and j earnest tanner 1978 1979 with respect to the effects of government deficits and debt and barro 1978 michael darby 1979 and dean leimer and selig lesnoy 1982 with respect to social security wealth see also interesting recent papers by john seater 1982 who generates detailed tests of the effects of deficits and debt on consumption charles plosser 1982 who explores the effects of government spending and debt shocks on interest rates and feldstein 1982 who attempts tests similar to some in this paper see fn 29 2martin bailey s 1962 1971 development of the effects of government spending on private consumption and aggregate economic activity is the seminal contribution paul david and john scadding 1974 extend bailey s ideas and provide some supporting empirical evidence more recently willem buiter 1977 and myself 1978 developed models based on bailey s earlier work barro 1981 has an interesting paper on related issues see also david aschauer 1982 3the standard approach incorporates fiscal policy through the concept of personal disposable income and by including the stock of government debt as part of personal wealth see for example the empirical specification of albert ando and franco modigliani 1963 which has been the basis of most empirical consumption studies since and feldstein 1974 for one of the more influential papers based on the ando modigliani specification

interest rates and budget deficits revisited evidence from the g7 countries this article revisits whether budget deficits affect interest rates and broadens the literature by examining whether financial globalization has changed this relationship a structural model of interest determination is extended to account for the fact that official capital flows are determined differently than private flows and is estimated for a 1960 2005 g7 panel we find that deficits have a significant but small effect on long term rates but that this result depends on the fiscal concept used moreover we find no evidence of structural change in interest rate determination in the recent decades with the exception of an increased impact of insurance related capital inflows in recent years

empirical evidence on the relationship between mobile termination rates and firms profits the theoretical literature on mobile termination rates mtrs is inconclusive on how the level of mtrs affects overall consumer charges and firms profits we show that when firms offer bundles with fixed included usage a tariff structure that has become more common in recent years an identical change in all mtrs does not affect firms retail prices or profits we use a panel dataset from saturated european markets to estimate the effect of mtrs on mobile operators profits as predicted by the theoretical model we cannot reject the fact that firms profits are unaffected by an identical change in all mtrs

a cointegrating approach to budget deficits and long term interest rates a cointegrating approach is undertaken in this study to determine if there is a long run equilibrium relationship between budget deficits and long term interest rates for the united states and nine european countries the cointegration approach consists of conducting cointegration tests and then testing several hypothesized values for the deficit and price expectations variables the cointegration results suggest the existence of several significant cointegrating vectors for each of the ten countries which would seem to appeal to the view of budget deficits having a positive impact on long term interest rates the hypothesized values for the deficit and price expectations variables are found to be too strict since the hypotheses are rejected in every case but one

a note on federal budget deficits and the term structure of real interest rates in the united states using quarterly data and dealing with the ex post real rates on three month u s treasury bills and 20 year u s treasury bonds this empirical note has estimated an is lm based regression by 2sls the results indicate that the budget deficit raises the slope of the yield curve furthermore to the extent that private sector capital formation is sensitive to longer term real interest rates in the united states federal budget deficits lead to crowding out of private investment and hence to slower economic growth over the longer run

network competition and entry deterrence we develop a model of logit demand that extends to a multi firm industry the traditional duopoly framework of network competition firstly we show that incumbents establish inefficiently the reciprocal access charge below cost when they compete in prices but they behave efficiently if they compete in utilities secondly we study how incumbents determine the industry wide access charge under the threat of entry we show that incumbents may accommodate all possible entrants only a group of them or may completely deter entry when entry deterrence is the preferred option incumbents distort the access charge upwards

new evidence on deficits and interest rates it is generally assumed on theoretical grounds that increases in government borrowing cause interest rates to rise 1 but empirical support for this proposition has been weak at best several recent papers have uncovered no strong relationship between deficits and short terrn interest rates however the research reported here indicates that although the relationship between deficits and short terrn interest rates may be tenuous there is strong evidence that larger deficits are associated with higher long terrn interest rates much of the debate about whether there is a strong relationship between federal borrowing and interest rates concerns the crowding out question this controversy centers on the direct and indirect eilffects of government fiscal actions on private spending these effects have been well documented in the theoretical literature e g buiter 1977 carlson and spencer 1975 blinder and solow 1973 many of the crowding out effects studied in this literature depend on the connection between government borrowing and high interest rates friedman 1978 meyer 1975 silber 1970 this is called short run indirect crowding out and may occur when increases in government spending and borrowing cause interest rates to rise which then may cause private spending to be reduced buiter 1977 pp 310 13

network interconnection in telecommunications this paper discusses industries such as telecommunications where firms each have their own customers and must interconnect with other firms to provide a comprehensive service two scenarios are considered i the case of a symmetric unregulated industry and ii the case of an industry with a dominant regulated incumbent in the first provided there is sufficient product differentiation it is shown that firms agree to set interconnection charges above associated costs in order to obtain the joint profit maximising outcome in the second a formula for the welfare maximizing interconnection charge is derived relations with the efficient component pricing rule are discussed

network competition i overview and nondiscriminatory pricing we develop a model of unregulated competition between interconnected networks and analyze the mature and transition phases of the industry in this deregulated environ ment networks pay negotiated or regulated access charges to each other and com pete in prices for customers we show that a competitive equilibrium may fail to exist for large access charges or for large network substitutability and that freely negotiated access charges may prevent effective competition in the mature phase of the industry and erect barriers to entry in the transition toward competition last we examine the meaning and impact of policies such as the efficient component pricing rule

fiscal deficits and long term interest rates further evidence from annual data much debate has recently centered on the popular view that large u s budget deficits financed by the sale of bonds cause high interest rates if valid this view implies that deficits crowd out efficient private investment and adversely affect economic growth however bailey 2 and barro 3 have challenged this conventional view on theoretical grounds based on the ricardian equivalence proposition bailey and barro contend that rational economic agents interpret government deficits as postponed tax liabilities and thus will have no effects on private wealth or interest rates such theoretical ambiguity in regards to the impact of budget deficits has also been matched by an equally conflicting empirical evidence for example barth iden and russek 4 deleeuw and holloway 8 hutchison and pyle 20 makin 24 makin and tanzi 25 and zahid 35 have found a positive and significant effect of deficits on interest rates on the other hand evans 11 12 13 hoelscher 17 motley 28 and plosser 29 30 have all failed to find any systematic support for a significant positive impact of deficits on interest rates it should be observed that the above empirical studies have employed either monthly or quarterly data however some researchers e g hoelscher 18 have recently charged that monthly or quarterly data bias the results in favor of finding no significant linkage between deficits and interest rates they reasoned that portfolio adjustment lags are too long for monthly or even quarterly observations to reflect the actual correlation between deficits and interest rates to eliminate this problem of periodicity annual data was instead advocated 2 using annual data hoelscher 18 concluded that deficits have caused positive and significant changes in long term interest rates in the united states

do budget deficits raise nominal interest rates evidence from six countries abstract it is widely believed that budget deficits raise nominal interest rates this paper shows that the belief has no empirical support for six countries ricardian equivalence may explain the lack of a positive association between budget deficits and nominal interest rates

deficit announcements and interest rates despite the fact that the most theoretical analyses with the notable exception of the ricardian equivalence approach indicate that increased deficits cause interest rates to rise the empirical evidence is at best inconclusive 1 in this note the relationship between interest rates and deficits is examined with the announcement effect methodology which has not previously been used in this context we find evidence of a positive relationship between unanticipated announcements of the projected federal government deficit and interest rates in an efficient market information about any determinant of interest rates should be quickly incorporated into observed rates thus when information about the size of the deficits is released a relatively quick impact on interest rates can be anticipated more specifically if an increase in the deficit is in fact associated with higher interest rates then an unanticipated announcement of a larger deficit should lead to a response in financial markets which increases interest rates this paper provides evidence on the announcement effects of information on the deficit the advantage of the announcement effect approach is that it precludes the necessity of specifying a structural model for interest rates 2 projections of current and future federal government deficits are made on a regular basis by both the office of managementand budget omb and the congressional budget office cbo and receive wide attention in the financial press these projections provide data that are related to the change in interest rate on government securities from the day before the announcement to the end of the announcement day the macroeconomic hypothesis underlying this investigation is simply that an increase in the current or future deficit leads to an increase in yields on government securities in anticipation of higher levels of debt financing in a rational expectations framework an announcement of higher future deficits will lead to a current increase in interest rates in anticipation of future financing thus the examination of announcement effects enables us to substantiate a relationship between interest rates and deficits without encountering the econometric problems of reduced form modeling section i begins with a description of the data this is followed by a discussion of the methodology in section ii section iii presents the empirical results this is followed by our conclusions in section iv