intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market this paper examines the out of sample performance of intraday technical trading strategies selected using two methodologies a genetic program and an optimized linear forecasting model when realistic transaction costs and trading hours are taken into account we find no evidence of excess returns to the trading rules derived with either methodology thus our results are consistent with market efficiency we do however find that the trading rules discover some remarkably stable patterns in the data

trading patterns and prices in the interbank foreign exchange market the behavior of quote arrivals and bid ask spreads is examined for continuously recorded deutsche mark dollar exchange rate data over time across locations and by market participants a pattern in the intraday spread and intensity of market activity over time is uncovered and related to theories of trading patterns models for the conditional mean and variance of returns and bid ask spreads indicate volatility clustering at high frequencies the proposition that trading intensity has an independent effect on returns volatility is rejected but holds for spread volatility conditional returns volatility is increasing in the size of the spread there is a growing body of theoretical studies on the pattern of trading activity in financial markets with implications for the time series behavior of transactions prices and intensity of trading the empirical literature addressing similar concerns using intraday market data appropriate for such tasks is sparse particularly in the area of the trading of currencies the purpose of this paper is to examine both international patterns of intraday trading activity and the time series properties of returns and bid ask spreads for the deutsche mark dollar exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market the goal is to provide information useful in the further development of market microstructure models of trading and to compare empirical findings against theoretical results already in existence the foreign exchange market is in operation twenty four hours a day seven

the japanese saving rate despite much work economists have not been able to quantitatively account for the differences in the japanese and u s saving rates after world war ii in this paper we show that the use of actual japanese total factor productivity growth rates in a standard growth model generates saving rates that are reasonably similar to the japanese data between 1956 and 2000 jel e21 e22 o41 o47

every minute counts in financial markets abstract this paper represents an introductory study of ultra high frequency minuute by minute data for forex spot rates bid ask reuters quotes on three days autumn 1987 the frequency of price revision size of spread and statistical characteristics are measured the series exhibit time varying leptokurtosis unit roots and first order negative correlation the latter especially in disturbed jumpy markets the effect of time aggregation on these characteristics is examined and variance ratios are analyzed multivariate analysis revealed significant relationships between lagged exchange rates both the own rate and the key deutsche mark us dollar rate and the current spot rate

the influence of fundamentals on exchange rates findings from analyses of news effects as we survey the literature of macroeconomic news in the foreign exchange market we can by now look back on nearly 30 years of research the first studies which analysed news effects on exchange rates were established in the early 1990s see for example dornbusch almost at the same time meese and rogoff published their influential paper revealing the forecasting inferiority in exchange rates of structural models against the random walk this finding has shocked the pillars of exchange rate economics and thus cast general suspicion on research focusing on fundamentals in this field the eventual rising popularity of event studies can partly be attributed to the re establishment of the raison d etre of exchange rate economics this work focuses on systematically surveying this literature with particular respect to its primary goal i e shedding light on the analytical value of fundamental research thus its major findings are first fundamental news does matter whereas non fundamental news matters to a lesser degree second news influences exchange rates via two separated channels i e incorporating common information into prices directly or indirectly based upon order flow third with a few exceptions the impact of fundamental news on exchange rates is fairly stable over time

the statistical properties of daily foreign exchange rates 1974 1983 abstract this paper examines the statistical properties of daily rates of change of five foreign currencies from 1974 to 1983 the main purpose is to discriminate between two competing explanations for the observed heavy tails of the distribution that the data are independently drawn from a heavy tail distribution which remains fixed over time and that the data come from distributions which vary over time evidence point to the rejection of the first hypothesis further investigations show that the rejection can be attributed to changing means and variances in the data which can be described by a simple statistical model

news effects in a high frequency model of the sterling dollar exchange rate this paper uses an extremely high frequency data set on the dollar sterllng exchange rate to investigate the impact of news events on the very short term movements in exchange rates the data set is a continuous record of the quoted price for the exchange rate on the reuters screen as such it records some 130 000 observations over an 8 week period the paper investigates the time series properties of the data using orthodox regression models and then by making allowance for a time varying conditional variance the conclusions vary significantly in moving to this more sophisticated model the exercises are repeated now incorporating news announcement effects letting these affect the level of the exchange rate and then the conditional variance process again it is found that the conclusions are radically altered in moving to the increasingly sophisticated model

discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates abstract ignoring the existence of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates one considerably understates the value of monetary commitment in new keynesian models a stochastic forward looking model with an occasionally binding lower bound calibrated to the u s economy suggests that low values for the natural rate of interest lead to sizeable output losses and deflation under discretionary monetary policy the fall in output and deflation are much larger than in the case with policy commitment and do not show up at all if the model abstracts from the existence of the lower bound the welfare losses of discretionary policy increase even further when inflation is partly determined by lagged inflation in the phillips curve these results emerge because private sector expectations and the discretionary policy response to these expectations reinforce each other and cause the lower bound to be reached much earlier than under commitment

the inefficiency of reuters foreign exchange quotes abstract reuters foreign exchange fxfx page is the world wide predominant information source to foreign exchange traders in this study we compare the indicative spot exchange rate quotes from reuters with their matching futures exchange rates from the chicago mercantile exchange we find that the indicative quotes on reuters fxfx page are inefficient and could be improved by incorporating information from the futures market this casts doubt on the way banks determine these quotes as well as on the informational content of these quotes as an indicator of the current exchange rate

real implications of the zero bound on nominal interest rates if monetary policy succeeds in keeping average inflation very low nominal interest rates may occasionally be constrained by the zero lower bound the degree to which this constraint has real implications depends on the monetary policy feedback rule and the structure of price setting policy rules that make the price level stationary lead to small real distortions from the zero bound if policy imparts persistence into the inflation rate the real implications of the zero bound are large in the presence of backward looking price setting and small if prices are set to maximize profits

a note on weekday intraday and overnight patterns in the interbank foreign exchange and listed currency options markets abstract transactions data are used to investigate returns patterns for close to close close to open and intraday long positions in spot currency interbank and currency put options listed for the years 1983 through 1988 both trading day and calendar day hypotheses are investigated under the former spot market returns are found to be significantly higher from friday close to monday close and from friday close to monday open under the calendar day hypothesis however no significant close to close pattern emerges and the friday close to monday open effect is reversed finally spot put market returns are found to be significantly lower higher for tuesday and friday afternoons

modeling and measuring intraday overreaction of stock prices abstract we introduce a model for stock prices consisting of a fundamental price process and a news impact curve which allows for either overreaction underreaction or correct response to changes of the fundamental value we further develop statistics based on ohlc data which separately measure upside and downside overreaction the distribution of these statistics under the hypothesis of correct response and fundamental prices following brownian motions is used to derive tests for upside and downside overreaction we show that more realistic and frequently used fundamental price processes with correct response leave the distribution of the test statistics widely unaffected or lead to conservative tests empirical application to different stock markets provides strong evidence for intraday overreaction particularly to bad news the economic significance of the discrimination induced by the proposed statistics is further illustrated by analyzing the performance of a simple buy on bad news strategy

new keynesian dynamics in a low interest rate environment recent research has found that the dynamic properties of the new keynesian model are unorthodox when the nominal interest rate is zero improvements in technology and reductions in the labor tax rate lower economic activity and the size of the government purchase output multiplier is very large this paper provides evidence that these results are not empirically relevant we show that a prototypical new keynesian model fit to japanese data exhibits orthodox dynamics during japan s episode with zero interest rates we then demonstrate that this specification is more consistent with outcomes in japan than alternative specifications that have unorthodox properties

optimal monetary policy under commitment with a zero bound on nominal interest rates we determine optimal monetary policy under commitment in a forwardlooking new keynesian model when nominal interest rates are bounded below by zero the lower bound represents an occasionally binding constraint that causes the model and optimal policy to be nonlinear a calibration to the u s economy suggests that policy should reduce nominal interest rates more aggressively than suggested by a model without lower bound rational agents anticipate the possibility of reaching the lower bound in the future and this amplifies the effects of adverse shocks well before the bound is reached while the empirical magnitude of u s mark up shocks seems too small to entail zero nominal interest rates shocks affecting the natural real interest rate plausibly lead to a binding lower bound under optimal policy however this occurs quite infrequently and does not imply positive average inflation rates in equilibrium interestingly the presence of binding real rate shocks alters the policy response to non binding markup shocks

market structure and inefficiency in the foreign exchange market abstract this paper investigates the intradaily operational efficiency of the us foreign exchange market by conducting computer simulation experiments with market structure the numbers of market makers brokers and customers the results indicate significant operational inefficiencies which can be explained by temporary inventory imbalances inherent in a decentralized market the results also suggest that much of this inefficiency could be alleviated through a centralization of price information jel f31 g15

the intraday bid ask spread behaviour of the jpy usd exchange rate in the ebs electronic brokerage system using a sophisticated tool of the periodic generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic p garch model this article investigates the market institutional effects of the determining role of trading activities and exchange rate volatility on the intraday behaviour of the 15 minute jpy usd exchange rate bid ask spreads in the electronic broking service ebs of electronic brokerage market for the period from 1 january 2003 to 31 december 2005 we find that the exchange rate volatility both significantly and positively affects the bid ask spreads while the number of deals and quotation changes negatively affect the bid ask spreads these results are similar to those of past studies we also find that a u shaped pattern exists in the tokyo trading hours and an inverted u shaped pattern in the london trading hours in addition to a round clock inverted u shaped pattern of spread volatility this inverted u shaped pattern may be caused by unexpected news arrivals the spread behaviour of the ebs glo

optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules welfare maximizing monetary and fiscal policy rules are studied in a model with sticky prices money and distortionary taxation the ramsey optimal policy is used as a point of comparison the main findings are the size of the inflation coefficient in the interest rate rule plays a minor role for welfare it matters only insofar as it affects the determinacy of equilibrium optimal monetary policy features a muted response to output interest rate rules that feature a positive response to output can lead to significant welfare losses the welfare gains from interest rate smoothing are negligible optimal fiscal policy is passive the optimal monetary and fiscal rule combination attains virtually the same level of welfare as the ramsey optimal policy

estimating a new keynesian phillips curve with a corrected measure of real marginal cost evidence in japan we estimate a new keynesian phillips curve nkpc in japan focusing on the measurement of real marginal cost rmc especially we correct labor share by taking account of two kinds of labor market frictions i labor adjustment costs and ii real wage rigidity our results show that the consideration of these labor market frictions greatly improves the fit of japan s nkpc furthermore if we additionally incorporate materials prices in the calculation of rmc then the fit of the nkpc is further improved our most important finding is that the conventional backward looking component is no more needed to explain japan s inflation dynamics if we use a corrected measure of rmc

negative autocorrelation around large jumps in intra day foreign exchange data abstract this paper addresses the issue of first order negative autocorrelation around large changes in high frequency foreign exchange rate data this phenomenon is found to exist at smaller time horizons and disappear at larger horizons

price discovery in the foreign exchange market an empirical analysis of the yen dmark rate abstract using reuters exchange rate data we investigate the dynamic relations between the direct quotes of the yen dmark rate and the rate implied by yen dollar and dmark dollar rates since these high frequency data are observed at irregular intervals technical problems arise in calculating auto correlations and cross correlations we propose a covariance estimator for irregularly spaced data the empirical results show lagged adjustment of the direct yen dmark cross rate to changes in the dollar implied rate however since the dollar implied rate is extremely noisy substantial price discovery takes place through the direct yen dmark market especially during the most busy parts of the day

the magnitude of menu costs direct evidence from large u s supermarket chains we use store level data to document the exact process of changing prices and to directly measure menu costs at five multistore supermarket chains we show that changing prices in these establishments is a complex process requiring dozens of steps and a nontrivial amount of resources the menu costs average 105 887 year per store comprising 0 70 percent of revenues 35 2 percent of net margins and 0 52 price change these menu costs may be forming a barrier to price changes specifically 1 a supermarket chain facing higher menu costs due to item pricing laws that require a separate price tag on each item changes prices two and one half times less frequently than the other four chains 2 within this chain the prices of products exempt from the law are changed over three times more frequently than the products subject to the law in principle fixed costs of changing prices can be observed and measured in practice such costs take disparate forms in different firms and we have no data on their magnitude so the theory can be tested at best indirectly at worst not at all alan blinder 1991 p 90

catching the wave alertness responsiveness and market influence in global electronic networks this paper introduces the concepts of alertness and responsiveness as key capabilities for firms in fast moving information intensive environments such as global currency trading hypotheses drawn from the resource based view of the firm from network theory and from austrian economics are tested on objective cross section and time series data for the population of 4 088 banks engaged in foreign exchange trading on the reuters dealing system results strongly support the hypotheses that banks that are alert i e use their information networks in ways that expand the range of information they are exposed to and responsive those that act quickly in volatile markets tend to exercise greater market influence in this industry

business and children mapping impacts managing responsibilities in recent years issues of childhood obesity unsafe toys and child labor have raised the question of corporate responsibilities to children however business impacts on children are complex multi faceted and frequently overlooked by senior managers this article reports on a systematic analysis of the reputational landscape constructed by the media corporations and non government organizations around business responsibilities to children a content analysis methodology is applied to a sample of more than 350 relevant accounts during a 5 year period we identify seven core responsibilities that are then used to provide a framework for enabling businesses to map their range of impacts on children we set out guidelines for how to identify and manage the firm s strategic responsibilities in this arena and identify the constraints that corporations face in meeting such responsibilities

the persistence of volatility and stock market fluctuations this paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market prices it demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated implying that shocks to volatility do not persist these shocks can therefore have only a small impact on stockmarket prices since changes in volatility affect expected required rates of return for relatively short intervals these findings lead us to be skeptical of recent claims that the stock market s poor performance during the 1970 s can be explained by volatility induced increases in risk premia this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a content analysis of whistleblowing policies of leading european companies since the introduction of the u s sarbanes oxley act in 2002 and several other national corporate governance codes whistleblowing policies have been implemented in a growing number of companies existing research indicates that this type of governance codes has a limited direct effect on ethical or whistleblowing behaviour whereas whistleblowing policies at the corporate level seem to be more effective therefore evidence on the impact of inter national corporate governance codes on the content of corporate whistleblowing policies is important to understand their indirect impact on whistleblowing behaviour this study analyzes the contents of whistleblowing policies and parts of corporate codes of conduct and codes of ethics describing such policies of 56 leading european companies by classifying the contents in seven categories an exploratory framework was created general contents often identified were applicability to all employees a group wide scope and an authoritative tone the most common general violations to report were breaches of internal policies and external regulations or laws the more specific violations most frequently mentioned were criminal offences and dangers to health and safety or the environment contacts to report to were the direct or indirect supervisors a compliance officer or a confidential hotline facility a confidentiality guarantee was common and anonymous reporting was often possible though sometimes discouraged protection against retaliation is stated by ensuring that retaliation will not happen prohibiting it or making it punishable the requirement of good faith was frequently given finally investigation of the report was often guaranteed surprisingly little information is given on the treatment of whistleblowers reporting an unfounded complaint in good faith or reporting a violation they were involved in the study s findings are most relevant to companies without a whistleblowing policy or those that intend to benchmark their policies and to pan european standard setters

optimal monetary policy at the zero interest rate bound what should a central bank do when faced with a weak aggregate demand even after reducing the short term nominal interest rate to zero to address this question we solve a central bank s intertemporal loss minimization problem in which the non negativity constraint on nominal interest rates is explicitly considered we find that the optimal path is characterized by policy inertia in the sense that a zero interest rate policy should be continued for a while even after the natural rate of interest returns to a positive level by making such a commitment the central bank is able to achieve higher expected inflation lower long term nominal interest rates and a weaker domestic currency in the adverse periods when the natural rate of interest significantly deviates from a steady state level

business codes of multinational firms what do they say business codes are an oft cited management instrument but how common are codes among multinationals and what is their content in an unprecedented study the codes of the largest corporations in the world have been collected and thoroughly analyzed this paper presents the results of that study of the 200 largest companies in the world 52 5 have a code more than half f these codes describe company responsibilities regarding quality of products and services 67 adherence to local laws and regulations 57 and the protection of the natural environment 56 many codes make reference to principles governing stake holder relations e g transparency 55 honesty 50 and fairness 45 corporate core values e g teamwork 43 appropriate conduct among employees e g discrimination 44 and intimidation 43 and treatment of company property by employees e g conflict of interests 52 corruption 46 and fraud 45 monitoring compliance with the code is addressed in 52 of the codes based on this content study three types of codes are distinguished the stakeholder statute 72 the values statement 49 and the code of conduct 46 the results of this inquiry present a benchmark for the evaluation and development of both individual and international business codes

trading activity dealer concentration and foreign exchange market quality abstract we study the relation between foreign exchange market quality and both trading activity and dealer concentration by considering two currency pairs with significant differences along both dimensions the euro us dollar and canadian dollar us dollar a variance ratio test reveals over reaction in currency prices but that this is smallest when trading activity is high and dealer concentration at its peak a garch model shows that over reaction declines as trading activity and dealer concentration increase with the results being stronger for the euro our results confirm that trading activity is an important determinant of market quality but also point to a significant role for dealer concentration

a note on intraday foreign exchange volatility and the informational role of quote arrivals abstract the conditional variance for five different hourly foreign exchange rates is modeled using a garch model with the number of incoming quotes as a regressor in the conditional variance equation we find that the number of quotes is positively and significantly related to the volatility of all rates examined the empirical findings support the conjecture of a time consuming information process

does comovement among exchange rates imply market inefficiency abstract this paper argues that contrary to what has been reported in the empirical literature previously cointegration between pairs of exchange rates does not necessarily rule out informational efficiency in currency markets the basic reason is that market efficiency does not rule out predictable exchange rate movements but only rules out arbitrage opportunities from predictable exchange rate movements as the usual parity conditions dictate

seasonality in foreign exchange volatility the paper reports further empirical evidence on seasonality in foreign exchange volatility using high frequency data using a basis of the signal plus noise framework the approach decomposes tick by tick reuters fxfx quotes into a random walk and a stationary component termed the efficient price and the pricing error respectively the efficient price is not directly observable and is an approximation of the true value the pricing error captures the deviation between the observed indicative quote and the efficient price under the proposed model daily and intraday volatilities of the efficient price are estimated a pronounced pattern of volatility is uncovered and appears related to the daily activity cycle of major organized stock exchanges it is argued that seasonality in volatility is a symptom of foreign exchange markets results confirm andersen and bollerslev s findings that significant seasonal effects are one important determinant of overall volatility at high frequencies

does fomc news increase global fx trading does global currency volume increase on federal open market committee fomc days to test hypotheses of abnormal currency volume on fomc days a new data set from the continuous linked settlement cls bank is used the cls measure captures more than half of the global trading volume in foreign exchange fx markets the evidence shows that fx trading volume increases about 5 in the spot and the spot next market following fomc deliberations the novelty of this result is that the aggregated cls data controls for responses in various derivatives markets a feature that existing studies based on intradaily data for specific trading platforms do not consider