two stage budgeting and exact aggregation this paper presents an econometric model of demand for energy based on two stage budgeting the model provides own price and cross price elasticities of demand for energy and nonenergy commodities for the united states these elasticities are estimated separately for households classified by family size age of head region race and urban versus rural residence price elasticities are presented conditional on total energy expenditure and total expenditure on all commodities the model combines individual cross section data with aggregate time series data and is based on exact aggregation over individual demand functions

electronics and growth cycles in singapore with the help of spectral and structural time series analyses it is found that the demand for electronics in the usa goes through a cycle with a period of about four to five years because of the synchronized nature of the electronics market the global demand for electronics is likely to follow a similar cycle the electronics cycle is unlikely to be caused by a regular business cycle the major cause of the electronics cycle appears to be a product cycle which results from the introduction of new products to the market as a result countries like singapore which depend heavily on electronics exports may face roller coaster rides especially in their manufacturing growth product diversification is the best solution to the problem

gasoline demand in europe new insights abstract this study utilizes a panel data set from 14 european countries over the period 1990 2004 to estimate a dynamic model specification for gasoline demand previous studies estimating gasoline consumption per total passenger cars ignore the recent increase in the number of diesel cars in most european countries leading to biased elasticity estimates we apply several common dynamic panel estimators to our small sample results show that specifications neglecting the share of diesel cars overestimate short run income price and car ownership elasticities it appears that the results of standard pooled estimators are more reliable than common iv gmm estimators applied to our small data set

efficient methods of measuring welfare change and compensated income in terms of ordinary demand functions a utility maximizing consumer with a completely known system of ordinary demand functions q h p c is considered let p qo and p q be two arbitrary equilibrium situations the problem is to evaluate in which of the situations the utility is higher without knowing the utility function revealed preference theory tells that the ordinary demand functions which are in principle observable contain enough information to solve the problem remaining difficulties are therefore mainly computational we present how the compensated income c i c p qo and the compensated demand h p cl1 are calculated with arbitrary accuracy using only the ordinary demand system our two efficient algorithms also have interesting interpretations in terms of index numbers and consumer surplus measures

gasoline price volatility and the elasticity of demand for gasoline abstract we examine how gasoline price volatility impacts consumers price elasticity of demand for gasoline results show that volatility in prices decreases consumer demand for gasoline in the intermediate run we also find that consumers appear to be less elastic in response to changes in gasoline price when gasoline price volatility is medium or high compared to when it is low moreover we find that when we control for variance in our econometric model gasoline price elasticity of demand is lower in magnitude in the long run

global demographic trends and social security reform how sustainable are the current social security systems in the developed economies given the projected demographic trends the most recent literature has answered this question through dynamic general equilibrium models in a closed economy framework this paper provides a new quantitative benchmark of analysis for this question represented by a two region model south and north of the world economy where capital flows across regions the timing and the extent of the demographic transition and the associated economic forces shaping capital accumulation and equilibrium factor prices are very different in the two regions thus the projected paths of interest rate and wage rate in the north diverge substantially between closed and open economy we perform a wide range of policy experiments under both scenarios our main conclusion is that if one is interested in quantifying the path of the fiscal variables e g the value of the payroll tax needed to keep the social security system viable or to finance a transition towards a fully funded system then these two benchmarks yield similar results however if the focus is on quantifying the path of factor prices aggregate variables and ultimately welfare then the two approaches can diverge significantly

export growth slowdown and currency crisis the malaysian experience a slowdown in export growth occurred in all east asian economies that were affected by the asian currency crisis misaligned exchange rates have been widely cited as a cause of the slowdown in the malaysian context at least a vulnerability to the downturn in the electronic cycle could also be a major factor leading to poor export performance using the us yen dollar rate as a proxy for exchange rate misalignment and us total new orders for electronics as a proxy for global electronics demand cointegration analysis was used to establish the likely causes of a slowdown in malaysia s export performance empirical results suggest that a unique long run relationship exists between all three variables the policy implications of these results including exchange rate monitoring and export diversification are discussed in the conclusion

limit pricing and the in effectiveness of the carbon tax we present a theory of limit pricing monopoly in non renewable resource production facing a very inelastic demand an oil monopoly seeks to induce the highest price that does not destroy its demand unlike the conventional hotellian analysis the monopoly tolerates some ordinary substitutes to its oil but deters high potential ones with limit pricing policy induced extraction changes do not obey the usual logic for example oil taxes have no effect on current oil production extraction increases when high potential substitutes are promoted but can be effectively reduced by supporting ordinary substitutes the carbon tax not only applies to oil it also penalizes its ordinary carbon substitutes whose market shares are taken over by the monopoly thus the carbon tax ambiguously affects current and long term oil production and carbon emissions

social networks and technology adoption in northern mozambique despite their potentially strong impact on poverty agricultural innovations are often adopted slowly using a unique household dataset on sunflower adoption in mozambique we analyse whether and how individual adoption decisions depend upon the choices of others in the same social networks since farmers anticipate that they will share information with others we expect farmers to be more likely to adopt when they know many other adopters dynamic considerations however suggest that farmers who know many adopters might strategically delay adoption to free ride on the information gathered by others we present empirical evidence that shows that the relationship between the probability of adoption and the number of known adopters is shaped as an inverse u in line with information sharing the network effect is stronger for farmers who report discussing agriculture with others the data contains information which is needed to ameliorate the identification issues that commonly arise in this context in particular social networks are precisely identified and in addition we can control for village heterogeneity and endogenous group formation

anticipation tax avoidance and the price elasticity of gasoline demand summary least squares estimates of the response of gasoline consumption to a change in the gasoline price are biased toward zero given the endogeneity of gasoline prices a seemingly natural solution to this problem is to instrument for gasoline prices using gasoline taxes but this approach tends to yield implausibly large price elasticities we demonstrate that anticipatory behavior provides an important explanation for this result gasoline buyers increase purchases before tax increases and delay purchases before tax decreases rendering the tax instrument endogenous including suitable leads and lags in the regression restores the validity of the iv estimator resulting in much lower elasticity estimates copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

labor supply deadweight loss and tax reform act of 1986 a nonparametric evaluation using panel data abstract tax reform act of 1986 tra 1986 has provided an invaluable source of variation in tax rates to study the effects of tax reforms on labor supply in the us most existing studies exploiting variation generated by tra 1986 have used cross sectional variation in tax rates or assumed a linear labor supply function or have not couched their analysis in a nonlinear budget set framework this paper uses the drastic variation in the budget set induced by tra 1986 as a source of identification and combines two novel approaches to estimate behavioral effects of tax reforms i first use nonparametric estimation methods with nonlinear budget sets blomquist soren newey w 2002 nonparametric estimation with nonlinear budget sets econometrica 70 6 2455 2480 to estimate a labor supply function using waves of psid just before and after tra 1986 nonparametric method developed in hausman and newey hausman j whitney newey 1995 nonparametric measurement of exact consumer s surplus and deadweight loss econometrica 63 1145 76 is then applied to estimate the deadweight loss from tra 1986 the nonparametric estimate of the compensated wage elasticity is 0 22 i find that tra 1986 had a small but positive effect on labor supply of men of about 2 at the sample mean tra 1986 was associated with robust reduction in deadweight loss from the pre tra 1986 level and this reduction is positively correlated with income and wages

from frugal jane to wasteful john a quantile regression analysis of swiss households electricity demand abstract in this article we investigate the heterogeneity in the responsiveness of swiss household electricity demand to changes in prices and income we focus on segments of consumers with different intensities of electricity consumption by using a panel quantile regression approach this estimation strategy is applied to a rich micro level longitudinal data set of 3880 observations from more than 1400 households matched with a unique price data set extracted from the swiss electricity regulator s online sources while the findings show an inelastic electricity demand across all groups an interesting pattern of variation emerges between lower and upper quantiles of electricity demand respectively frugal and intensive users results show that households in the first conditional quartile and at the median react significantly to changes in prices while those at the lowest quantile and upper quantiles exhibit insignificant price elasticities the main policy implications of this work concern the design of price based measures for reducing electricity consumption in the residential sector and the possibility of accounting for individual responses in tailoring policies for specific consumer segments

nonparametric estimation of the impact of taxes on female labor supply this paper proposes a simple extension of nonparametric estimation methods for nonlinear budget set models derived in blomquist and newey 2002 to censored dependent variables the nonparametric method is applied to estimate female labor supply elasticities using data on married women from the 1985 and 1989 waves of the panel study of income dynamics exploiting the substantial variation in budget sets caused by the tax reform act of 1986 as a source of identification the estimated wage elasticities from this new method are 0 56 overall and 0 27 on the intensive margin the income elasticity estimates are close to 0 67 overall and 0 13 on the intensive margin compared with the linear labor supply model the estimated elasticities are usually larger for the nonparametric specifications that account for nonlinear budget sets copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

elasticities of demand for gasoline in canada and the united states abstract fluctuations in the world price of oil the concern with greenhouse gas emissions and the efforts to revive the 1997 kyoto protocol have resulted in renewed interest in the estimation of elasticities of demand for gasoline in this paper a complete system of demand equations is estimated including an equation for the demand for gasoline canadian family expenditure famex and united states consumer expenditure cex survey data are used household level data permits estimation of elasticities for various household groups also differences in demand responsiveness to own price and income changes are estimated for different regions in canada and the united states demand is found to be own price and income inelastic on the whole as reported in earlier studies there is also variation in these elasticities across regions of canada and the united states however larger differences are observed with respect to household size and housing tenure than to region of residence

distributional and efficiency impacts of increased us gasoline taxes we examine the impacts of increased us gasoline taxes in a model that links the markets for new used and scrapped vehicles and recognizes the consider able heterogeneity among households and cars household choice parameters derive from an estimation procedure that integrates individual choices for car ownership and miles traveled we find that each cent per gallon increase in the price of gasoline reduces the equilibrium gasoline consumption by about 0 2

gasoline taxes or efficiency standards a heterogeneous household demand analysis abstract using detailed consumer expenditure survey data and a flexible semiparametric dynamic demand model this paper estimates the price elasticity and fuel efficiency elasticity of gasoline demand at the household level the goal is to assess the effectiveness of gasoline taxes and vehicle fuel efficiency standards on fuel consumption the results reveal substantial interaction between vehicle fuel efficiency and the price elasticity of gasoline demand the improvement of vehicle fuel efficiency leads to lower price elasticity and weakens consumers sensitivity to gasoline price changes the offsetting effect also differs across households due to demographic heterogeneity these findings imply that when gasoline taxes are in place tightening efficiency standards will partially offset the strength of taxes on reducing fuel consumption

demand specification for municipal water management evaluation of the stone geary form to specify demand in most water allocation problems researchers face a tradeoff between flexibility and parsimony flexible forms are less constraining on elasticity estimates but require large parameter sets that tend to cause poor out of sample forecasts and computational difficulties using a five year panel of texas municipalities the parsimonious stone geary form yields estimated demand functions that are comparable to flexible form results the stone geary specification also provides an estimate of the portion of water use that may not be responsive to price and is useful in analysing price structures and designing conservation policies

estimation with censored regressors basic issues we study issues that arise for estimation of a linear model when a regressor is censored we discuss the efficiency losses from dropping censored observations and illustrate the losses for bound censoring we show that the common practice of introducing a dummy variable to correct for censoring does not correct bias or improve estimation we show how censored observations generally have zero semiparametric information and we discuss implications for estimation we derive the likelihood function for a parametric model of mixed bound independent censoring and apply that model to the estimation of wealth effects on consumption

multinational corporations and trade structure first a model of horizontally and vertically integrated firms is developed these firms are then embedded in a general equilibrium model of trading countries it is shown how multinational corporations emerge as a result of differences across countries in factor compositions intersectoral intraindustry and intrafirm trade can coexist and intrafirm trade takes place in invisibles headquarter services and intermediate inputs it is shown how the various trade components depend on the structure of the world economy the model predicts trade patterns which are close to observed trade patterns the importance of multinational corporations in the conduct of foreign trade has been recognized for many years nevertheless there exists no well articulated theory that explains the conditions for their emergence and predicts under these conditions a structure of trade that comes close to observed trade patterns i have developed in helpman 1984 a theory which is designed to fill in this gap and it is the purpose of this paper to extend it in order to make it better fit reality my earlier work builds on the standard theory of monopolistic competition in differentiated products in which every firm produces a single variety the distinguishing feature of that study is the interpretation of the technology so as to allow for specialized inputs which service plants that are geographically separated from the location of the inputs employment in particular those inputs can be located in one country and service plants located in other countries management and product specific rd multinational corporations have often production facilities in several countries see for example u s tariff commission 1973 chapter iii moreover in my earlier work all intra firm trade consisted of trade in the services of the specialized inputs i e in headquarter services while empirically a large part of intra firm trade takes place in intermediate inputs see buckley and pearce 1979 hence there is a need to extend the theory in order to take account of these missing features and in order to evaluate their contribution to the explanation of trade patterns this task is undertaken in the following sections by incorporating the model of the horizontally and vertically integrated firm from helpman 1983 into the theory of

estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for u s households with input output analysis part 1 theoretical framework abstract this is the first part of a two part paper providing an analytical model of the indirect rebound effect given a direct rebound estimate that integrates consumer demand theory with the embodied energy of household spending from environmentally extended input output analysis the second part applies the model developed in part one to simulate the direct and indirect rebound for the average u s household in terms of primary energy co2e nox and so2 emissions and for energy efficiency investments in electricity natural gas or gasoline services part one provides a critical review of the largely independent economic and industrial ecology literatures on the indirect rebound by studying the two goods case and the n goods case we demonstrate that the indirect rebound is bounded by the consumer budget constraint and inversely related to the direct rebound we also compare the common proportional spending and income elasticity spending assumptions with our model of cross price elasticities including both substitution and income effects for the indirect rebound by assuming zero incremental capital costs and the same embodied energy as conventional technologies for efficient appliances we model an upper bound of the indirect rebound future work should also consider the increase in consumer welfare possible through the rebound effect

green commuting and gasoline taxes in the united states abstract this paper analyzes how gasoline tax rates are related to the time workers in the united states spend commuting by private car public transport or with other physical modes of transport our identification strategy relies on both inter state differences and time variations in gasoline taxes using the american time use surveys for the years 2003 2015 we find that higher gasoline tax rates are related to less time spent in commuting furthermore higher gasoline taxes are related to less commuting by private car and more commuting by public transport and or a physical mode of transport walking or cycling our results highlight the importance of gasoline taxes in the consumption of energy for personal transport as higher gasoline taxes are related to a greater use of green modes of transport showing that fuel taxes are important for good environmental management

separation of powers and the tax level in the u s states we estimate a nonlinear and discontinuous relationship between the tax level and the degree of alignment between the legislature and the governor measured as the number of seats in the legislature that belong to the governor s party in the states with the line item veto the tax level jumps at the point where the government switches from divided to unified with a regression discontinuity design we show that this jump can be interpreted as a causal effect we propose a simple model to account for this nonlinear relationship the sequential nature of the budget bargaining game that is the legislature proposes and the governor cuts with the line item veto implies that the tax level is determined by the overlap between the supporters of the governor and the supporters of the legislative majority changes in the size of the overlap determine the tax level

a decomposition of the price and income elasticity of the consumer demand for gasoline the authors specify and estimate a model of the short run demand for gasoline which allows them to decompose a consumer s gasoline demand elasticities into miles driven and driving efficiency components their model is estimated using detailed household survey data which allows direct focus on the short run holding both the household s automobile stock and demographic profile fixed among the most interesting results are 1 the data allow interesting insights to be drawn into the interrelationship between these important variables and household behavior with respect to gasoline consumption miles driven and driving efficiency 2 the gasoline demand behavior of one car and multi car households differ significantly from each other evaluated at overall sample means one car households have higher in absolute value price elasticites for gasoline miles driven and fuel efficiency demand conversely multi car households have higher in absolute value total expenditure elasticities for each category 3 for both one car and multi car households roughly 75 of the estimated price elasticity and roughly 80 of the estimated total expenditure elasticity of gasoline demand stem from the miles driven component the estimated fuel efficiency elasticities though smaller than their standard errors indicate that households respond to changes in prices and total expenditure levels not only by changing the number of miles theymore drive but also by changing the efficiency with which they drive them 23 references 3 tables less

can guest workers solve japan s fiscal problems the labor force in japan is projected to fall from 64 million in 2014 to 20 million in 2100 signaling unprecedented tax transfer adjustments to achieve fiscal sustainability in this paper we develop a quantitative overlapping generations model to measure the impact of guest worker programs in japan against a baseline general equilibrium transition in which the consumption tax adjusts to achieve fiscal sustainability we compute alternative transitions with guest worker programs depending on the size and skill distribution of guest workers these programs may mitigate japan s fiscal imbalance problem with a relatively manageable increase in the consumption tax jel e2 e6 h5 j11 j15

heterogeneity in the response to gasoline prices evidence from pennsylvania and implications for the rebound effect abstract the consumer response to changing gasoline prices has long interested economists and policymakers for it has important implications for the effects of gasoline taxation and vehicle energy efficiency policies this study examines both the elasticity of driving with respect to changing gasoline prices and heterogeneity in this elasticity by geography the fuel economy of the vehicle and the age of the vehicle we use detailed annual vehicle level emissions inspection test data from pennsylvania that include odometer readings inspection zip codes and extensive vehicle characteristics we estimate a short run gasoline price elasticity of driving demand of 0 10 and find substantial heterogeneity in this responsiveness the elasticity is largely driven by low fuel economy vehicles as well as vehicles between 3 and 7 years old our findings help reconcile some of the recent literature and provide guidance on the magnitude of the direct rebound effect from light duty vehicle energy efficiency policies

a varying coefficient approach to global flexibility in demand analysis a semiparametric approximation to reduce dimensionality issues this article derives a globally flexible demand system that can be estimated non parametrically with a specially devised temporal kernel statistical and economic results from a meat demand application underscores the usefulness of a temporal kernel in globally approximating an integrable demand system

defying gravity can japanese sovereign debt continue to increase without a crisis japan has the highest debt to gdp ratio among advanced countries and many studies find that the current fiscal regime of japan is not sustainable yet the japanese government bond continues to enjoy low and stable interest rates the most plausible explanation for such an apparent anomaly is that the bonds are predominantly held by the japanese residents who are willing to absorb increasing amount of japanese government bonds jgb without requiring high yields even if the japanese residents continue to invest their new saving into the government bonds however japan s fiscal situation is not sustainable which this paper shows through simulations under various scenarios in all of the scenarios that assume the fiscal policy stance of the japanese government does not change in the future we find that the amount of government debt will exceed the private sector financial assets available for the government debt purchase in the next 10 years or so the paper also shows that sufficiently large tax increases and or expenditure cuts in the future would put the government debt on a sustainable path thus if the market believes that japan will embark on such fiscal consolidation in the next 10 years at most the low jgb yields are justifiable if and when the expectation changes however a fiscal crisis can be triggered even before the government debt hits the ceiling of the private sector financial assets takeo hoshi and takatoshi ito

applied welfare economics with discrete choice models economists have been paying increasing attention to the study of situations in which consumers face a discrete rather than a continuous set of choices such models are potentially very important in evaluating the impact of government programs upon consumer welfare but very little has been said in general regarding the tools of applied welfare economics indiscrete choice situations this paper shows how the conventional methods of applied welfare economics can be modified to handle such cases it focuses on the computation of the excess burden of taxation and the evaluation of quality change the results are applied to stochastic utility models including the popular cases of probit and logit analysis throughout the emphasis is on providing rigorous guidelines for carrying out applied work this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

fragmentation and east asia s information technology trade this article studies the growth and determinants of information technology it trade in the asia pacific region we argue that the rise of it trade must be understood within the context of increasing vertical fragmentation of production processes that has occurred over the past two decades to evaluate this empirically we estimate a set of pooled bilateral it export equations for eight asian countries the usa and the eu where foreign direct investment fdi inflows are introduced as a proxy for fragmentation we apply a panel cointegration approach that allows for heterogeneity in short run dynamics and in fixed effects consistent with production fragmentation we find that the evolution of it trade can be explained in part by traditional income and relative price effects but also by fdi inflows

non parametric tests of consumer behaviour the neoclassical model of consumer behaviour postulates that a consumer s choice behaviour can be described as deriving from utility maximization subject to a budget constraint one is then naturally led to ask what this model implies about observed behaviour this question has been addressed from two quite distinct approaches the first approach originating in the work of slutsky 1915 and antonelli 1886 derives necessary and sufficient conditions involving the derivatives of the demand functions the second approach originating in the work of samuelson 1938 1947 1948 derives algebraic conditions on the demand functions implied by maximizing behaviour

demand systems with and without errors revealed preference theory assumes that each consumer has demands that are rational meaning that they arise from the maximization of his or her own utility function in contrast econometric or statistical demand models assume that each consumer s demands equal a rational systematic component derived from a common utility function plus an individual specific additive error term this paper reconciles these differences by providing necessary and sufficient conditions for rationality of statistical demand models given individual consumer rationality

exact consumer s surplus and deadweight loss consumer s surplus is a widely used tool in applied welfare economics both economic theorists and cost benefit analysis often use consumer s surplus despite its somewhat dubious reputation the basic idea is to evaluate the value to a consumer or his willingness to pay for a change in price of a good from say pricep to pricep because price changes affect consumer welfare an evaluation of this effect is often a key input to public policy decisions yet consumer s surplus is probably the most controversial of widely used economic concepts both paul samuelson and ian little conclude that the economics profession would be better off without it it is my feeling of the situation that substantial agreement exists on the correct quantities to be measured the amount the consumer would pay or would need to be paid to be just as well off after the price change as he was before the price change the quantities correspond to john hicks compensating variation measures an alternative measure which takes ex post price change utility as the basis of comparison is hicks equivalent variation the controversy arises in the measurement of these quantities the usual measurement procedure is to use the area to the left of the marshallian market demand curve between two price levels jules dupuit originated this measure of welfare change and alfred marshall and hicks derived appropriate conditions for its use the primary condition for the area to the left of the demand curve to correspond to the compensating variation is to have constant marginal utility of income marshall gave this condition and if it holds the same quantity will be derived as the area to the left of the compensated hicksian demand curve this area to the left of the compensated demand curve is exactly what the compensating variation and equivalent variation measure thus the constant marginal utility of income is a sufficient condition for marshallian consumer s surplus to be equal to hicks consumer s surplus in this case arnold harberger s plea to use the welfare triangle as one half times the product of the price change times the quantity change to measure deadweight loss corresponds to the correct theoretical amount of welfare change in a recent paper robert willig derives bounds for the percentage difference between the correct measure of either the compensating or equivalent variation and the marshallian measure derived form the market demand curve his bounds which depend on the income elasticity of demand for the single good in the region of price change being considered as well as the proportion of the consumer s income spent on the good demonstrate that the marshallian consumer s surplus is often a good approximation to hicks consumer s surplus the fact that the proportion of the consumer s income spent matters as well as the income elasticity was first pointed out by harold hotelling willig contends that the approximation error will be less than the errors involved in estimating the demand curve thus he hopes to remove the need for apology that applied economists often need to give to theorists who remark on the inappropriateness of using marshallian consumer s surplus to measure welfare change however in this paper i show that for the case primarily considered by willig of a single price change which is also the situation in which consumer s surplus is often used in applied work no approximation is necessary professor of economics massachusetts institute of technology and research associate national bureau of economic research i would like to thank peter diamond erwin diewert daniel mcfadden robert merton robert solow hal varian joel yellin and the referees for help and comments research support from the national science foundation is acknowledged the reason that we still have two rather than one of samuelson s six measures of consumer s surplus arises from an index number problem of the correct basis for the welfare comparison i will give both measures but plan to concentrate on the compensating variation

deconstructing life cycle expenditure we revisit two well known facts regarding life cycle expenditures the hump shaped profile of nondurable expenditures and the increase in cross household consumption inequality we document that the behavior of total nondurables masks surprising heterogeneity in the life cycle profile of individual consumption subcomponents we provide evidence that the categories driving life cycle consumption either are inputs into market work or are amenable to home production using a quantitative model we document that the disaggregated life cycle consumption profiles imply a level of uninsurable permanent income risk that is substantially lower than that implied by a model using a composite consumption good

2 00 gas studying the effects of a gas tax moratorium there are surprisingly few estimates of the effects of sales taxes on retail prices especially at the firm level we consider the temporary suspension and subsequent reinstatement of the gasoline sales tax in illinois and indiana following a price spike in 2000 earlier laws set the timing of the reinstatements providing plausibly exogenous changes in the tax rates using a unique dataset of daily prices at the gas station level 70 of the tax suspension is passed on to consumers in the form of lower prices while 80 100 of the tax reinstatements are passed on to consumers some evidence suggests that these short run pass through estimates are smaller near the state borders with the tax reinstatements associated with relatively higher prices up to an hour s drive into neighboring states

frontiers in the economics of energy efficiency abstract energy efficiency has become an essential instrument to obtain effective greenhouse gas mitigation and reduced energy dependence this introductory article contextualizes the contributions of the supplemental issue by showing the new setting for energy efficiency economics and policy discussing the role of price instruments to promote energy savings presenting new approaches for energy efficiency policies and placing energy efficiency within a wider energy and environmental framework

achieving fiscal balance in japan japan is aging and has the highest government debt to output ratio among advanced economies in this article we build a micro data based large scale overlapping generations model for japan in which individuals differ in age gender employment type income and asset holdings and incorporate the japanese pension rules using existing pension law current fiscal policy and medium variants of demographic projections we produce future paths for government expenditures and tax revenues with implications for government debt and the public pension fund additional pension reform a higher consumption tax and higher female labor force participation help achieve fiscal stability

relationships between economic growth foreign direct investment and trade evidence from china this study investigates the causal links between trade economic growth and inward foreign direct investment fdi in china at the aggregate level the integration and cointegration properties of quarterly data are analysed long run relationships between growth exports imports and fdi are identified in a cointegration framework in which this paper finds bi directional causality between economic growth fdi and exports economic development exports and fdi appear to be mutually reinforcing under the open door policy

how revealing is revealed preference this lecture address the following two key criticisms of the empirical application of revealed preference theory when the rp conditions do not reject they do not provide precise predictions and when they do reject they do not help characterize the nature of irrationality or the degree direction of changing tastes recent developments in the application of rp theory are shown to have rendered these criticisms unfounded a powerful test of rationality is available that also provides a natural characterization of changing tastes tight bounds on demand responses and on the welfare costs of relative price and tax changes are also available and are shown to work well in practice

the demand for gasoline evidence from household survey data summary in this paper we investigate the demand for gasoline in canada using recent annual expenditure data from the canadian survey of household spending over a 13 year period from 1997 to 2009 on three expenditure categories in the transportation sector gasoline local transportation and intercity transportation in doing so we use three of the most widely used locally flexible functional forms the almost ideal demand system aids of deaton and muellbauer 1980 the quadratic aids quaids of banks et al 1997 an extension of the simple aids model that can generate quadratic engel curves and the minflex laurent model of barnett 1983 which can also generate quadratic engel curves we pay explicit attention to economic regularity argue that unless regularity is attained by luck flexible functional forms should always be estimated subject to regularity as suggested by barnett 2002 and impose local curvature to produce inference consistent with neoclassical microeconomic theory our findings indicate that the curvature constrained minflex laurent model is the only model that is able to provide theoretically consistent estimates of the canadian demand for gasoline our estimates show that the own price elasticity for gasoline demand in canada is between 0 738 and 0 570 less elastic than previously reported in the literature copyright 2013 john wiley sons ltd

nonparametric estimation of a nonseparable demand function under the slutsky inequality restriction we present a method for consistent nonparametric estimation of a demand function with nonseparable unobserved taste heterogeneity subject to the shape restriction implied by the slutsky inequality we use the method to estimate gasoline demand in the united states the results reveal differences in behavior between heavy and moderate gasoline users they also reveal variation in the responsiveness of demand to plausible changes in prices across the income distribution we extend our estimation method to permit endogeneity of prices the empirical results illustrate the improvements in finite sample performance of a nonparametric estimator from imposing shape restrictions based on economic theory

modeling gasoline demand in the united states a flexible semiparametric approach abstract the focus of this paper is on the modeling and estimation of quarterly state level gasoline demand in the united states the existing literature may not appropriately evaluate the price elasticity and income elasticity of gasoline demand most studies fail to address the possible heterogeneity in gasoline demand elasticities that may arise from a variety of sources the endogeneity issue of gasoline price has remained redundant throughout the literature i address these challenges using a flexible demand model and a recently developed estimation technique the econometric approach allows for functional coefficients to accommodate the heterogeneity in demand elasticities several instrumental variables are used to investigate the endogeneity of gasoline price the estimation results provide strong evidence of heterogeneous gasoline demand elasticities across states and over time some state level attributes along with income and macroeconomic shocks are the potential sources of heterogeneity

population aging social security and fiscal limits abstract we use an overlapping generations olg life cycle model with distortionary taxation on labor and capital to derive a threshold dependency ratio i e a point in the cross section distribution of the population beyond which tax revenues can no longer sustain the planned level of transfers to retirees we quantify the level of the threshold the distance of the economy from the threshold and the probability of reaching the threshold at some point in the future the model is calibrated on the united states and fourteen european countries which have dependency ratios among the highest in the world we examine the effects on the threshold and welfare of a number of policies often advocated to improve the sustainability of pension systems new tax data on dynamic laffer effects are provided

heterogeneity in the rebound effect further evidence for germany rebound effects measure the behaviorally induced offset in the reduction of energy consumption following efficiency improvements using both panel estimation and quantile regression methods on household travel diary data collected in germany between 1997 and 2009 this study investigates the heterogeneity of the rebound effect in private transport with the average rebound effect being in the range of 57 to 62 our results are in line with a recent german study by frondel peters and vance 2008 but are substantially larger than those obtained from other studies furthermore our quantile regression results indicate that the magnitude of estimated fuel price elasticities from which rebound effects can be derived depends inversely on the household s driving intensity households with low vehicle mileage exhibit fuel price elasticities and hence rebound effects that are significantly larger than those for households with high vehicle mileage

a bayesian sampling approach to measuring the price responsiveness of gasoline demand using a constrained partially linear model partial linear models provide an intuitively appealing way to examine gasoline demand because one can examine how response to price varies according to the price level and people s income however despite their intuitive appeal partial linear models have tended to produce implausible and or erratic price effects blundell et al 2012 propose a solution to this problem that involves using slutsky shape restrictions to improve the precision of the nonparametric estimate of the demand function they propose estimating a constrained partially linear model through three steps where the weights are optimized by minimizing an objective function under the slutsky constraint bandwidths are selected through least squares cross validation and linear coefficients are estimated using profile least squares a limitation of their three step estimation method is that bandwidths are selected based on pre estimated parameters we improve on the blundell et al 2012 solution in that we derive a posterior and develop a posterior simulation algorithm to simultaneously estimate the linear coefficients bandwidths in the kernel estimator and the weights imposed by the slutsky condition with our proposed sampling algorithm we estimate a constrained partially linear model of household gasoline demand employing household survey data for the united states for 1991 and 2001 and for canada for 2006 2009 and find plausible price effects

gasoline savings from clean vehicle adoption abstract conventional counterfactuals used in literature may underestimate fuel savings from clean vehicle adoption thus overestimating the costs of securing associated environmental benefits using a large scale nationally representative sample of u s new car buyers we propose a choice model based counterfactual approach to predict what consumers would purchase if clean vehicles were unavailable we find that gasoline consumption under a no clean vehicle scenario increases by 1 7 compared with 1 1 based on a conventional counterfactual the conventional counterfactual overestimates the cost of gasoline savings from clean vehicle adoption incentives by 1 16 27 per gallon compared with the choice model based counterfactual

elasticities of gasoline demand in switzerland abstract using cointegration techniques we investigate the determinants of gasoline demand in switzerland over the period 1970 2008 we obtain a very weak price elasticity of 0 09 in the short run and 0 34 in the long run for fuel demand i e gasoline plus diesel the corresponding price elasticities are 0 08 and 0 27 our rich dataset allows working with quarterly data and with more explicative variables than usual in this literature in addition to the traditional price and income variables we account for variables like vehicle stocks fuel prices in neighbouring countries oil shocks and fuel taxes all of these additional variables are found to be significant determinants of demand

the effect of population density road network density and congestion on household gasoline consumption in u s urban areas abstract this paper applies both semiparametric and parametric approaches to explore the effect of population density freeway road density and congestion on household gasoline consumption in u s urban areas while controlling for household demographic and economic characteristics regression results indicate that households living in those urban areas with higher freeway densities higher levels of congestion or lower population densities consume more gasoline

a tale of two tails commuting and the fuel price response in driving abstract pricing greenhouse gases is widely understood as the most efficient approach for mitigating climate change yet distributional effects hamper political acceptance these distributional effects are especially important in transport the fastest growing sector for greenhouse gas emissions using rich data covering the entire population of vehicles and households in denmark this study uncovers an important feature of driving demand two groups of much more responsive households in the lower and upper tails of the work distance distribution we further estimate the causal effect of public transport a critical determinant of the upper tail and show how public transport access can both reconcile differences in fuel price elasticities between the united states and europe and considerably influence the distributional effects of fuel pricing

the econometrics of nonlinear budget sets traditional empirical analysis of consumer demand has usually made the assumption of linear budget sets that is the consumer is assumed to purchase any desired quantity at a constant price subject to a budget constraint the major exception to this framework is the analysis of demand when some goods are rationed 2 in the rationed case the price is constant up to a quantity limit in contrast to the rationed case here i consider the situation where the price varies with the amount of the good purchased empirical situations with nonconstant prices come readily to mind and of course they have received much recent attention from theorists since mirrlees 44 paper on optimal nonlinear taxation the following examples are meant to give a partial listing of cases when nonlinear budget sets occur i electricity prices many electric utilities engage in declining block pricing that is the marginal price of successive kwh s of electricity decrease at a given number of points determined by total demand thus the budget set is piecewise linear houthakker 36 was the first to propose an approach to this problem taylor 51 analyzes the problem at length and hausman kinnucin and mcfadden 31 use an instrumental variables estimator to provide consistent estimates of the demand function

foreign investment and the global geography of production why the mexican consumer electronics industry failed abstract explanations of industrial development in late developing countries have become narrowly focused on the capability of governments to promote pressure or punish nationally owned firms often overlooked is the contribution of firms both national and multinational in propelling coordinating and determining the path and location of such development this paper examines the conditions that led to the decline of mexico s consumer electronics industry and presents new evidence to support a more complex account of the role of both industrial and state actors within this process in contrast to the traditional market or state based theories we argue that the decline of mexico s consumer electronics industry largely resulted from its foreign investment regime particularly the timing of investment and the geographical locations of local and foreign manufacturers and the subsequent depth and quality of the relationships between these firms the differences between mexico s regime and that of taiwan during the same period provide further evidence of the important role that foreign firms play in inserting local suppliers into the global production chain we argue that mexico s foreign investment regime and the resulting weak local foreign ties rather than inadequate state policy sealed the fate of mexico s once thriving domestic electronics industry

measuring consumer welfare with mean demands the welfare change from a price increase for example the compensating variation cv is often calculated using the expenditure function from an estimated demand if there is unobserved preference heterogeneity then the estimated demand is an average over households with different preferences and the cv from the mean demand does not generally equal the mean cv we give conditions ensuring that the cv from the mean demand equals the mean cv is less than the mean cv and approximates the mean cv better than the change in consumers surplus a necessary condition is that demands become more dispersed as income rises

analysing gasoline demand elasticities a survey this paper is a survey of studies on gasoline demand although there are very many dxerent studies in this eld which sometimes appear to arrive at contradictory results we find that with proper stratification of studies by model and data type much of the contict turns to consensus in this survey we classtfy studies by data type and by ten d erent categories of model and with the exception of estimates on seasonal data which tend to be unstable and of certain inappropriate model formulations we find a fair degree of agreement concerning average short run and even long run income and price elasticities

estimating the distribution of welfare effects using quantiles this paper proposes a framework to model empirically welfare effects that are associated with a price change in a population of heterogeneous consumers which is similar to hausman and newey 1995 but allows for more general forms of heterogeneity individual demands are characterized by a general model which is nonparametric in the regressors as well as monotonic in unobserved heterogeneity in this setup we first provide and discuss conditions under which the heterogeneous welfare effects are identified and establish constructive identification we then propose a sample counterpart estimator and analyze its large sample properties for both identification and estimation we distinguish between the cases when regressors are exogenous and when they are endogenous finally we apply all concepts to measuring the heterogeneous effect of a chance of gasoline price using us consumer data and find very substantial differences in individual effects across quantiles

household gasoline demand in the united states supported by the mit center for energy and environmental policy research the u s dept of energy and the national science foundation

should policy makers allocate funding to vehicle electrification or end use energy efficiency as a strategy for climate change mitigation and energy reductions rethinking electric utilities efficiency programs in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the united states by an order of magnitude a portfolio of mitigation strategies is needed currently many utilities pursue energy efficiency programs we study a case where utilities could choose whether to allocate their energy efficiency budget to either end use efficiency or vehicle electrification as a means to reduce co2 emissions we build a decision space that displays the conditions under which utilities should pursue either strategy to build such decision space assumptions are needed on how consumers respond to electric vehicle incentives and what would be the baseline vehicle selected by consumers if no incentives were in place since these two aspects are highly uncertain we treat them parametrically if consumers are replacing a conventional vehicle with a phev utility incentive programs to induce phev adoption appear to be cost effective for a wide range of efficiency program costs and grid emissions factors

elasticities of transport fuels at times of economic crisis an empirical analysis for spain abstract this paper provides an updated calculation of the price and income responsiveness of spanish consumers of transport fuels with an explicit exploration of the effects of the recent economic crisis we examine separate gasoline and diesel demand models using a set of estimators on a panel of 16 spanish regions over the period 1999 2015 the paper confirms the persistence of low own price elasticities both for diesel and gasoline in the short and long runs it also shows that the crisis of 2008 2013 slightly increased the price elasticity of demand for transport fuels with a higher effect on diesel than on gasoline by contrary the crisis slightly reduced the income elasticity of transport fuel demand given the intensity and length of the economic recession in spain the results of this paper may be useful to anticipate the effects of domestic public policies that impact transport fuel prices as well as to advance some of the potential consequences of crises elsewhere

inventories and the automobile market this article studies the within model year pricing production and inventory management of new automobiles using new monthly data on u s transaction prices we document that for the typical vehicle prices fall over the model year at a 9 0 annual rate concurrently both sales and inventories are hump shaped to explain these time series we formulate an industry model for new automobiles in which inventory and pricing decisions are made simultaneously the model predicts that automakers build to stock inventory management policy substantially influences the time series of prices and sales accounting for four tenths of the price decline observed over the model year

consumer s surplus without apology the purpose of this paper is to settle the controversy surrounding consumer s surplus and by so doing to validate its use as a tool of welfare economics i will show that observed consumer s surplus can be rigorously utilized to estimate the unobservable compensating and equivalent variations the correct theoretical measures of the welfare impact of changes in prices and income on an individual i derive precise upper and lower bounds on the percentage errors of approximating the compensating and equivalent variations with consumer s surplus these bounds can be explicitly calculated from observable demand data and it is clear that in most applications the error of approximation will be very small in fact the error will often be overshadowed by the errors involved in estimating the demand curve the results in no way depend upon arguments about the constancy of the marginal utility of income consequently this paper supplies specific empirical criteria which can replace the apologetic caveats frequently employed by those who presently apply consumer s surplus moreover the results imply that consumer s surplus is usually a very good approximation to the appropriate welfare measures to preview below i establish the validity of these rules of thumb for a

gasoline price and new vehicle fuel efficiency evidence from canada abstract using data on all new vehicles registered in canada from 2000 to 2010 we estimate the elasticity of the fuel economy of the new vehicle stock with respect to gasoline price we find that a 10 increase in gasoline price causes a 0 8 improvement in the fuel economy of new vehicles however we also show that consumers respond much more strongly to fuel taxes than to other components of the gasoline price finally we provide evidence that consumers in dense urban areas are more responsive to changes in fuel prices than consumers living on the urban periphery

a semiparametric model of household gasoline demand gasoline demand studies typically generate a single price and income elasticity for a country it is however possible that these elasticities may differ among various socio economic groups at the same time parametric gasoline demand models may not be flexible enough to capture the changes in price elasticities with different levels of income this paper models us gasoline demand using more flexible semiparametric techniques accommodating the possibility of differences in responses among households the econometric model employs a non parametric bivariate smoothing for price and income and a parametric representation of other explanatory variables possible heterogeneity in price and income elasticities is modelled through interacting price and income with demographic variables results show that price responses do vary with demographic variables such as income multiple vehicle holding presence of multiple wage earners or rural or urban residential locations households responses to a price change decrease with higher income multiple vehicle and multiple earner households also show higher sensitivity to a price change households located in urban areas reduce consumption more than those in rural areas in response to an increase in price comparison of the flexible semiparametric model with a parametric translog model however reveals no significant differences between results and the parametric models have the advantage of lower computational requirements and better interpretability

fiscal implications of immigration a net present value calculation focusing on the net fiscal effects the gain from admitting immigrants is computed for a welfare state with large expenditures and a large tax burden sweden prices and behavior are held constant which allows a detailed analysis of the effects of immigration the present value of future tax revenues minus outlays is potentially large usd 23 500 per young working age immigrant but an average new immigrant represents a net government loss of usd 20 500 the dominant factors are employment rates and age for young working age immigrants the break even participation rate for which the gain would be zero is 60 well below the empirical rate for this group

the rebound effect for automobile travel asymmetric response to price changes and novel features of the 2000s abstract previous research suggests that the elasticity of light duty motor vehicle travel with respect to fuel cost known as the rebound effect is modest in size and probably declined in magnitude between the 1960s and the late 1990s however turmoil in energy markets during the early 2000s has raised new questions about the stability of this elasticity using panel data on u s states we revisit the simultaneous equations methodology of small and van dender 2007 and hymel et al 2010 to see whether structural parameters have changed using data through 2009 we confirm the earlier finding of a rebound effect that declines in magnitude with income but we also find an upward shift in its magnitude of about 0 025 during the years 2003 2009 in addition we find that the rebound effect is much greater in magnitude in years when gasoline prices are rising than when they are falling it is also greater during times of media attention and price volatility which explains about half the upward shift just mentioned

simultaneous equations bias in disaggregated econometric models with the language of econometrics agents may be said to take prices as exogenously given which suggests that prices are econometrically exogenous in individual behavioural equations this involves semantic confusion between different meanings of the word exogenous simultaneity problems cannot generally be dispelled by working with disaggregated data in particular nothing is gained by disaggregating the dependent variable in a regression equation if the micro and macro equations use the same regressors however there may be substantial gains from disaggregation of the regressors in the theory of competitive markets agents act as if they do not affect equilibrium market prices by analogy with the language of econometrics agents may be said to take prices as exogenously given having thus stated the price taking assumption it may seem that prices are econometrically exogenous in behavioural equations for individual agents such as labour demand curves this involves semantic confusion between two different meanings of the word exogenous for example even if each buyer has a negligible influence on the market price there may still be an important correlation between the price and the disturbance in an individual demand equation so that treating price as econometrically exogenous gives biased coefficient estimates the price taking assumption has been used to justify ols estimates of import demand functions for small countries leamer and stern 1970 pointed out that the estimated slope in an import demand function is generally an average of the slopes of the demand and supply functions for imports but

fiscal cost of demographic transition in japan abstract this paper quantifies the fiscal cost of demographic transition that japan is projected to experience over the next several decades in a life cycle model with endogenous saving consumption and labor supply in both intensive and extensive margins retirement waves of baby boom generations combined with a rise in longevity and low fertility rates raise the old age dependency ratio to 85 by 2050 the highest among major developed countries and generate a significant budget imbalance as the government faces rising costs of public pension and health and long term care insurance preserving the current level of the transfers will require a major increase in taxation using consumption taxes to balance the government budget the tax rate reaches the maximal value of 48 in late 2070s a pension reform to reduce benefits by 20 results in a peak tax rate of 37 which can be reduced further to 28 if the retirement age is also gradually raised by 5 years

the differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy abstract we employ a set of sign restrictions on the impulse responses of a global var model estimated for 38 countries regions over the period 1979q2 2011q2 as well as bounds on impact price elasticities of oil supply and oil demand to discriminate between supply driven and demand driven oil price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects across a wide range of countries and real financial variables we show that the above identification scheme can greatly benefit from the cross sectional dimension of the gvar by providing a large number of additional cross country sign restrictions and hence reducing the set of admissible models the results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply driven oil price shock are very different from those of an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and vary for oil importing countries compared to energy exporters while oil importers typically face a long lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply driven surge in oil prices the impact is positive for energy exporting countries that possess large proven oil gas reserves however in response to an oil demand disturbance almost all countries in our sample experience long run inflationary pressures an increase in real output a rise in interest rates and a fall in equity prices

a consistent semiparametric estimation of the consumer surplus distribution abstract in this paper we examine the consequences of demand function heterogeneity for the estimation of the consumer surplus in particular we show that given a linear demand function with random coefficients one can consistently estimate the consumer surplus distribution without making parametric assumptions about the coefficient distribution the approach is illustrated using data on gasoline consumption

empirical investigation of retail fuel pricing the impact of spatial interaction competition and territorial factors abstract this paper explores the determinants of fuel prices by proposing an empirical framework that integrates three kinds of influencing factors spatial interaction competition and territorial factors for competition we define a general variable the presence of competing stations within a radius and two specific variables the presence of low cost stations and the presence of same brand stations we proceed with a step wise adjustment of the radius by gradually increasing it to evaluate the spatial scope of different competition effects using data on prices of fuel stations in rome italy we estimate spatial econometric models that provide evidence of spatial dependence in price between stations we also find that competition affects prices but the relevance of its impact depends on radius length finally the territorial factors remarkably influence prices if these factors are introduced in the model the magnitude of spatial parameters weakens allowing to accurately assess the intensity of spatial dependence

nonparametric estimation of exact consumers surplus and deadweight loss we apply nonparametric regression models to estimation of demand curves of the type most often used in applied research from the demand curve estimators we derive estimates of exact consumers surplus and deadweight loss which are the most widely used welfare and economic efficiency measures in areas of economics such as public finance we also develop tests of the symmetry and downward sloping properties of compensated demand we work out asymptotic normal sampling theory for kernel and series nonparametric estimators as well as for the parametric case the paper includes an application to gasoline demand empirical questions of interest here are the shape of the demand curve and the average magnitude of welfare loss from a tax on gasoline in this application we compare parametric and nonparametric estimates of the demand curve calculate exact and approximate measures of consumers surplus and deadweight loss and give standard error estimates we also analyze the sensitivity of the welfare measures to components of nonparametric regression estimators such as the number of terms in a series approximation

energy and depletable resources economics and policy 1973 1998 abstract this paper reviews the impact of the literature in depletable resources and energy economics over the period 1973 1998 particularly the initial period of publication of the journal of environmental economics and management 1974 1998 a discussion of prominent policy issues in this arena is provided along with an indication of what academic economics papers have contributed to that debate this is followed by a citation analysis of contributions in the fields of energy and exhaustible resource economics for each of these two fields a list of the top papers in each five year period from 1974 to 1998 is presented along with a list of the top journals in each decade based on average citations per article the top ten cited articles in the fields in the journal of environmental economics and management are also presented

the econometrics of elasticities or the elasticity of econometrics an empirical analysis of the behavior of u s imports fifty years of econometric modeling of u s import demand assumes that trade elasticities are autonomous parameters that both cross price effects and simultaneity biases are absent and that expenditures on domestic and foreign goods can be studied independently of each other to relax these assumptions the paper assembles a simultaneous model explaining bilateral u s import volume and prices spending behaves according to the rotterdam model which by design embodies all the properties of utility maximization and does not treat trade elasticities as autonomous parameters pricing behaves according to the pricing to market hypothesis which recognizes exporters incentives to discriminate across export markets parameter estimation relies on the full information maximum likelihood fiml approach and uses bilateral price data for 1965 1987 according to the evidence treating trade elasticities as autonomous parameters and ignoring the statistical implications of simultaneity and optimization biases the structural estimates and undermines our effectiveness in addressing questions relevant to economic interactions among nations

population aging health care and fiscal policy reform the challenges for japan we construct a transition analysis based on a general equilibrium life cycle model to investigate the effects of aging and we evaluate various policy alternatives designed to lessen the negative influence of aging in particular we analyze reforms of insurance benefits and tax financing tools that were recently the focus of a great amount of attention and debate in japan because of the tense financial situation there we show that although the potential reforms improve the welfare of future generations the political implementation of such reforms is difficult because of the large welfare costs for the current population our analysis suggests that a gradual reform with an intergenerational redistribution will be more politically implementable than an immediate reform