intertemporal pricing and price discrimination a semiparametric hedonic analysis of the personal computer market we apply a smooth coefficient semiparametric model to a unique high frequency data set to examine the intertemporal pricing of personal computers furthermore we test whether firms charge differential component prices for their top performance personal computers and whether premium firms charge both a premium for all their computers and a premium for their top performance ones we find nonlinear effects in the pricing of personal computer components we also find that firms in general do not charge differential prices for the components of their top performance computers in addition high quality firms charge higher premia only for their most advanced products copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd

broadcast advertising and u s demand for alcoholic beverages quarterly data for 1977 1994 on alcohol consumption and advertising are used to estimate a differential demand system including explanatory variables for broadcast advertising and print advertising the model explains the growth rate of per capita consumption dependent on explanatory variables for prices real income demographic changes and real advertising by media and beverage empirical results also are reported for total consumption of pure alcohol the results for the three beverages and total alcohol indicate that advertising has little or no effect on demand the empirical evidence thus supports the notion that regardless of media advertising affects mainly brand shares

minimum price variations discrete bid ask spreads and quotation sizes exchange minimum price variation regulations create discrete bid ask spreads if the minimum quotable spread exceeds the spread that otherwise would be quoted spreads will be wide and the number of shares offered at the bid and ask may be large a cross sectional discrete spread model is estimated by using intraday stock quotation spread frequencies the results are used to project 1 16 spread usage frequencies given a 1 16 tick projected changes in quotation sizes and in trade volumes are obtained from regression models for stocks priced under 10 the models predict spreads would decrease 38 percent quotation sizes would decrease 16 percent and daily volume would increase 34 percent article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

spot and forward volatility in foreign exchange this paper investigates the empirical relation between spot and forward implied volatility in foreign exchange we formulate and test the forward volatility unbiasedness hypothesis which is the volatility analogue to the extensively researched hypothesis of unbiasedness in forward exchange rates using a new data set of spot implied volatility quoted on over the counter currency options we compute the forward implied volatility that corresponds to the forward contract on future spot implied volatility known as a forward volatility agreement we nd statistically signi cant evidence that forward implied volatility is a systematically biased predictor that overestimates future spot implied volatility the bias in forward volatility generates high economic value to an investor exploiting predictability in the returns to volatility speculation and indicates the presence of predictable volatility term premiums in foreign exchange

an economic analysis of the fisheries bycatch problem abstract bycatch is the incidental take of a species that has value to some other group this paper compares open access and individual transferable quota equilibria to the equilibrium in which the joint value of the fisheries is maximized the open access induced problems can be corrected by an individual transferable quota system only if both the target species and the bycatch species have tradable quotas and only if the bycatch species does not have existence value there exists a range of the bycatch to target species harvest levels for which the total harvest of each will be exactly taken by a given technology even under open access however there may not even exist a unique open access equilibrium if bycatch is allocated by rule of capture prohibitions on the sale of bycatch reduce the bycatch level but they also reduce social welfare

a comparative study of modelling the demand for food in the united states and the netherlands this paper provides time series and cross sectional budget survey analyses of the demand for food in the united states and the netherlands according to the tasks set by jan magnus and mary morgan mm various econometric methods including weighted least squares wls cointegration error correction the almost ideal demand system aids and time varying parameter tvp techniques are used and the estimated demand elasticities compared across country and over time 1997 john wiley sons ltd

empirical implications of alternative models of firm dynamics abstract this paper considers two models of firm behavior that allow for heterogeneity among firms idiosyncratic or firm specific sources of uncertainty and discrete outcomes exit and or entry both the characteristics of firm level panel data sets and the nature of the questions we characteristically ask of them imply that models with these features are likely to underlie most detailed empirical work on microdata sets the models we consider are a bayesian learning model due to jovanovic 20 and a model of research and exploration due to ericson and pakes 11 the paper provides a simple set of empirical procedures to help determine which if either of these two models might be appropriate for alternative data sets we conclude by checking for the implications of the two models on an eight year panel of wisconsin firms the results indicate that one model is consistent with the data on manufacturing firms while the other is consistent with the data on retail trade journal of economic literature classification numbers c52 l60 l80

seasonality in dynamic regression models this paper examines the implications of treating seasonality as an unobserved component which changes slowly over time this approach simplifies the specification of dynamic relationships by separating non seasonal from seasonal factors we illustrate this approach using the consumption model of davidson et al 1978 and estimate a stable error correction model between consumption income and prices over the period 1958 92 more generally we argue that autoregressive models are unlikely to successfully model slowly changing seasonality and may confound seasonal effects with the dynamic responses of prime interest our approach can be used in a wide range of cases and we show that there is little loss in efficiency even if seasonality is deterministic

nonparametric estimation of the effects of advertising the case of lydia pinkham this article reexamines some of the issues raised subsequent to the classical research by palda 1964 we use a nonparametric estimation method that allows us to incorporate both seasonal and smoothness constraints to estimate the parameters of a demand function using monthly data on lydia pinkham s vegetable compound the analysis indicates that the parameters of the estimated demand equation are not constant throughout the long period of the data which covers the whole life cycle of the product

a micromodeling approach to investigate the advertising sales relationship the purpose of this paper is to derive a model of advertising effects on the firm s sales a micromodel is postulated and aggregated across individuals and over time to produce a macromodel of the aggregate sales advertising relationship for a single product the micromodel postulated is very simple it incorporates two factors reach of the ads and rate of decay of their effectiveness over time this approach to modeling advertising effects is shown to be fruitful in several respects 1 the coefficients of the aggregate equation are easily interpretable in terms of the reach and decay parameters 2 the model derived is nonlinear yet estimable 3 a special case of the model is very similar to lag models that have been in use 4 the model can be used whatever the unit of time is 5 the carryover effect of advertising as commonly defined is not constant but depends upon the previous spending levels and 6 the model helps illustrate that the duration of advertising may be greatly overstated if aggregate lagged dependent variable models are simplistically interpreted

recovering measures of advertising carryover from aggregate data the role of the firm s decision behavior data interval bias the biased estimation of advertising carryover in aggregate data can be viewed as a misinterpretation of the aggregate advertising sales relationship due to missing micro advertising data this paper argues that if the researcher does not explicitly model the firm s advertising decisions he will incorrectly interpolate the missing data and thereby allow the firm s decision behavior to influence inferences about advertising carryover drawing upon a general model of advertising decision behavior the expected aggregate form of the koyck relationship is developed and compared to existing bias correction methodologies although it is difficult to find any parsimonious procedure which is robust with respect to all types of decision behavior allowing lagged advertising to enter the classical koyck equation emerges as a simple method of obtaining a reasonable estimate of advertising carryover in aggregate data

toward a national market system for u s exchange listed equity options in its response to the 1975 congressional mandate to implement a national market system for financial securities the securities and exchange commission sec initially exempted the option market recent dramatic changes in the structure of the option market prompted the sec to revisit this issue we examine a sample of actively traded multiply listed equity options to ask whether this market s characteristics appear consistent with the goals of producing economically efficient transactions and facilitating best execution we find marked changes between june 2000 when quotes are often ignored and january 2002 when the market more closely resembles a national market equity option trading changed dramatically with the beginning of vigorous competition for order flow in many actively traded options during august 1999 the

itqs firm dynamics and wealth distribution does full tradability increase inequality concerns over the re distributive effects of individual transferable quotas itq s have led to restrictions on their tradability we consider a general equilibrium model with firm dynamics to evaluate the redistributive impact of changing the tradability of itqs a change in tradability would happen for example if permits are allowed to be traded as a separate asset from ownership of an active firm if the property right is associated with ownership of an active firm the permit can be leased in each period but it is not possible to exit the industry and keep the right however allowing the permits to be traded as a separate asset has two effects first it leads to a greater concentration of production in the industry second it directly converts a non tradable asset into a tradable one and this is equivalent to giving a lump sum transfer to all firms the first effect implies a concentration in revenues while the second implies a redistribution of wealth we calibrate our model to match the observed increase in revenue inequality in the northeast multispecies groundfish u s fishery we show that although observed revenue inequality measured by the gini coefficient increases by 12 wealth inequality is reduced by 40

modeling response to advertising and pricing changes for v 8 cocktail vegetable juice this paper is based on a series of studies undertaken for v 8 cocktail vegetable juice over a five year period the studies were a consequence of management questions regarding the effectiveness of a new advertising campaign the best media mix for this campaign and the apparent wear out of the advertising copy the studies included controlled experimentation estimation of advertising response functions and exploration of price sensitivity following major price increases by v 8 it was found that the short term response to advertising was s shaped and that the new creative approach rather than expenditure levels alone accounted for by far the largest component of the impact of advertising on sales it was also found that for a short period following the major price increases v 8 became extremely price sensitive however after about six months the marginal impact of price returned to historical levels the application of results at campbell soup company their relationship to the literature and their implications for both researchers and practitioners are discussed

the red queen in action the longitudinal effects of capital investments in the mobile telecommunications sector organizations undertake capital investments in technology to generate revenues or decrease costs and thereby enhance profitability however red queen type responses by competing organizations in the form of rapid imitation and escalating of technology investments erode the ability of the investing organizations to sustain gains in profitability productivity gains from these investments may persist but they may not translate into sustained profitability gains owing to declining prices brought about by a hypercompetitive environment the emergence and erosion of benefits attributable to capital investments is examined by decomposing profitability into productivity price recovery product mix and capacity utilization and by regressing each performance measure on past technology investments a polynomial distributed lag model is estimated with quarterly data for 30 firms in the mobile telecommunications services sector from 1996 to 2005 the results indicate that capital investments are positively associated with productivity of current and future periods and their association with profitability is only positive in the future after six quarters these results highlight a unique outcome of the red queen hypothesis simply by imitating learning and investing in technology due to competition is beneficial to all firms in the industry

stealth trading in options markets we investigate how price discovery occurs in the options markets through traders trade size choice by employing transactions data on all options traded on a sample of 100 firms we show that informed traders fragment their orders into small medium trades for low high volume contracts we also find that almost 60 of the price discovery occurs in the exchange with the largest market share for a given option where informed traders favor medium size trades upon examining distinct option series for a given stock we find that at the money calls display the highest information share

bricks and mortar vs clicks and mortar an equilibrium analysis abstract the internet has provided traditional retailers a new means with which to serve customers consequently many bricks and mortar retailers have transformed to clicks and mortar by incorporating internet sales examples of companies making such a transition include best buy wal mart barnes noble etc despite the increasing prevalence of this practice several fundamental questions remain 1 does it pay off to go online 2 which is the equilibrium industry structure 3 what is the implication of this business model for consumers we study these issues in an oligopoly setting and show that clicks and mortar arises as the equilibrium channel structure however we find that this equilibrium does not necessarily imply higher profits for the firms in some cases rather it emerges as a strategic necessity consumers are generally better off with clicks and mortar retailers if firms align with pure e tailers to reach the online market we show that a prisoner s dilemma type equilibrium may arise

does asset allocation policy explain 40 90 or 100 percent of performance comments this material comments on does asset allocation policy explain 40 90 or 100 percent of performance

a supply chain model with direct and retail channels abstract we study a dual channel supply chain in which a manufacturer sells to a retailer as well as to consumers directly consumers choose the purchase channel based on price and service qualities the manufacturer decides the price of the direct channel and the retailer decides both price and order quantity we develop conditions under which the manufacturer and the retailer share the market in equilibrium we show that the difference in marginal costs of the two channels plays an important role in determining the existence of dual channels in equilibrium we also show that demand variability has a major influence on the equilibrium prices and on the manufacturer s motivation for opening a direct channel in the case that the manufacturer and the retailer coordinate and follow a centralized decision maker we show that adding a direct channel will increase the overall profit our numerical results show that an increase in retailer s service quality may increase the manufacturer s profit in dual channel and a larger range of consumer service sensitivity may benefit both parties in the dual channel our results suggest that the manufacturer is likely to be better off in the dual channel than in the single channel when the retailer s marginal cost is high and the wholesale price consumer valuation and the demand variability are low

the persistence of marketing effects on sales are marketing efforts able to affect long term trends in sales or other performance measures answering this question is essential for the creation of marketing strategies that deliver a sustainable competitive advantage this paper introduces persistence modeling to derive long term marketing effectiveness from time series observations on sales and marketing expenditures first we use unit root tests to determine whether sales are stable or evolving trending over time if they are evolving we examine how strong this evolution is univariate persistence and to what extent it can be related to marketing activity multivariate persistence an empirical example on sales and media spending for a chain of home improvement stores reveals that some but not all advertising has strong trend setting effects on sales we argue that traditional modeling approaches would not pick up these effects and therefore seriously underestimate the long term effectiveness of advertising the paper concludes with an agenda for future empirical research on long run marketing effectiveness

a strategic analysis of dual channel supply chain design with price and delivery lead time considerations abstract this paper extends the work of chiang et al 2003 by investigating how price and delivery lead time decisions affect channel configuration strategy under either the manufacturer owned or the decentralized mode we show the choice of channel structure depends on customer acceptance of the online channel and the cost parameters following a threshold policy in both forms of ownership we prove that the strategic use of direct marketing to mitigate the double marginalization the major finding in chiang et al 2003 still holds even in this general situation moreover pareto zone exists where both manufacturer and retailer outperform their counterparts in the traditional indirect channel only case thus indicating that mitigating double marginalization may bring mutual benefits we also compare pricing and delivery lead time decisions between different forms of ownership or between different channel structures under the same form of ownership the manufacturer adopts a slow down deliver later approach and speeds up delivery to serve customers with a higher sensitivity to delivery lead time when he owns the whole indirect channel but chooses to stay fast and brag about better services and surprisingly slows down the speed of service when customers are more sensitive to delivery lead time due to the internal competition between two channels in the decentralized mode

intertemporal aggregation of heterogeneous consumers abstract this paper deals with a relatively unexamined facet of stochastic brand switching models their connection to market share models we derive a composite market share model based on aggregation of heterogeneous markovian type individuals each purchasing a brand from the product class several times during the period of analysis the characteristics of this composite model are examined and interestingly suggest a markov type market share model moreover this examination sheds some light on a phenomenon uncovered in econometric studies of market share response to advertising the slow decay of the lagged market share term as the length of the measurement period is increased

the length of the effect of aggregate advertising on aggregate consumption abstract we investigate the longevity of aggregate advertising effects on aggregate consumption over the period 1947 1988 using updated methods the effects appear to linger for nine years raising further questions perhaps a return to this near dormant area of research could be productive

options resilience during extreme volatility evidence from the market events of may 2010 abstract using intraday trades and quotes data we study the stock options market before during and after the market events of may 6 2010 focusing on the s p 500 and s p 100 stock options we explore if the options market provided any discernible signals that forewarned the extreme volatility on that day and whether the recovery was fast and without a permanent impact we find that the options market reacted to the volatility rather than predicting it and almost all of the variables are indistinguishable from their previous levels in the next few trading days intraday empirical analysis suggests that most of the impact was over within a few hours from the peak of market volatility

is there price discovery in equity options abstract we use tick by tick quote data for 39 liquid us stocks and options on them and we focus on events when the two markets disagree about the stock price in the sense that the option implied stock price obtained from the put call parity relation is inconsistent with the actual stock price option market quotes adjust to eliminate the disagreement while the stock market quotes behave normally as if there were no disagreement the disagreement events are typically precipitated by stock price movements and display signed option volume in the direction that tends to eliminate the disagreements these results show that option price quotes do not contain economically significant information about future stock prices beyond what is already reflected in current stock prices i e no economically significant price discovery occurs in the option market we also find no option market price discovery using a much larger sample of disagreement events based on a weaker definition of a disagreement which verifies that the findings for the primary sample are not due to unusual or unrepresentative market behavior during the put call parity violations

cointegration analysis of the advertising sales relationship the examination of stochastic properties of the annual advertising and sales data from the lydia pinkham company reveals that the series are cointegrated and therefore possess a long run equilibrium condition according to the estimates of the error correction model of the series in the short run advertising is found to be more responsive than sales in adjustments to eliminate departures from the long run equilibrium condition the author s analysis in general implies that the observed business firms decision rules fixing advertising spending as a percentage of sales revenue may hold as a long run equilibrium condition copyright 1991 by blackwell publishing ltd

semiparametric analysis to estimate the deal effect curve abstract the marketing literature suggests several phenomena that may contribute to the nature of the relationship between sales and price discounts these phenomena can produce complex nonlinearities and interactions in the deal effect curve that are best captured with a flexible approach because a fully nonparametric regression model suffers from the curse of dimensionality the authors propose a semiparametric regression model store level sales over time are modeled as a nonparametric function of own and cross item price discounts and a parametric function of other predictors the authors compare the predictive validity of the semiparametric model with that of two parametric benchmark models and obtain superior performance the results for three product categories indicate threshold and saturation effects for both ownand cross item temporary price cuts the authors also find that the nature of the own item curve depends on other items price discounts comparisons with restricted model specification

competition without fungibility evidence from alternative market structures for derivatives in this paper we compare option contracts from a traditional derivatives exchange to bank issued options also referred to as covered warrants while bank issued option markets and traditional derivatives exchanges exhibit significant structural differences such as the absence of a central counterparty for bank issued options they frequently exist side by side and the empirical evidence shows that there is significant overlap in their product offerings although options are not fungible between the two markets the empirical analysis indicates that bid ask spreads in either market are lowered by 1 2 due to competition from the other market providing evidence that the benefits of competing market structures are available in the absence of fungibility

a meta analysis of marketing communication carryover effects abstractto optimally set marketing communication marcom budgets reliable estimates of short term elasticities and carryover effects are required empirical generalizations from meta analyses of prior field studies can help guide these decisions however the last such meta analysis of marcom carryover effects was performed on koyck model based estimates collected before 1984 and was confined to mass media advertising the authors update and extend extant empirical generalizations via two meta analyses of carryover estimates compiled from studies encompassing personal selling targeted advertising and mass media advertising using diverse model forms until 2015 the first is focused on and utilizes 918 estimates of the carryover proportion of the total effect termed long term share of the total effect and the second focuses on 863 derivable estimates of 90 implied duration intervals the authors find the mean long term shares of the total effect for personal selling 687 and targeted advertisin

sharing a fish resource bioeconomic analysis of an applied allocation rule political and economic factors usually determine the harvest sharesallotted to heterogeneous fisher groups harvesting upon the same fishstock given that the fishers harvest upon different segments of a fishstock with for instance cannibalistic tendencies the shares allottedmay have considerable effect upon the well being of the stock and theeconomics of the fishery this paper analyses an existing allocationrule defining harvest shares allotted to two vessel groups trawlers andcoastal vessels in the norwegian cod fishery we apply a model with twointeracting age groups within a single fish stock where the interactionhas both biological and economic implications requiring a first bestapproach to an optimal stock size results in no harvest in the firstyears studied in order to ensure harvest amounts close to the historicharvest we design a second best model giving optimal biological sharesin the build up phase of the stock and bioeconomic optimal shares atthe optimum fish stock level the second best model recommends that foran increasing stock size the trawlers should obtain decreasing shares we find that the actual allocation rule functions in a manner oppositeto the second best model since this rule allocates an increasing shareto the trawlers for an increasing stock size

pricing and lead time decisions in decentralized supply chains this paper studies a decentralized supply chain consisting of a supplier and a retailer facing price and lead time sensitive demands a stackelberg game is constructed to analyze the price and lead time decisions by the supplier as the leader and the retailer as the follower the equilibrium strategies of the two players are obtained using the performance of the corresponding centralized system as a benchmark we show that decentralized decisions in general are inefficient and lead to inferior performance due to the double marginalization effect however further analysis shows that the decision inefficiency is strongly influenced by market and operational factors and if the operational factors are dominating it may not be significant this shows that before pursuing a coordination strategy with retailers a supplier should first improve his or her own internal operations

product availability in competitive and cooperative dual channel distribution with stock out based substitution abstract this paper investigates the impact of customers stock out based substitution on the product availability and the channel efficiency of a dual channel supply chain which consists of a supplier distributing a single product to customers through both its wholly owned direct channel and an independent retailer the supplier and its retailer with the objective of optimizing their own profit simultaneously choose their own base stock level to satisfy the stochastic demand from the customers whose channel preferences are heterogeneous and may be affected by each channel s product availability the customers dynamically substitute between the two channels in the event of a stock out the result shows that the effect of the stock out based substitution may increase or decrease the efficiency of a decentralized supply chain it is found that while the integrated supplier retailer may consolidate the base stock levels to benefit from stock out based substitution the independent supplier and retailer are more inattentive to customers stock out based substitution thus the competitive base stock levels of the decentralized dual channel supply chain rarely agree with the system optimal levels various contracts are examined to shed light on channel coordination mechanisms in addition it is shown that the channel efficiency of the dual channel distribution can be improved by the emergence of stackelberg leadership from either the supplier or the retailer

generalizing what is known about temporal aggregation and advertising carryover this paper provides a theoretical explanation for the inconsistent findings from previous econometric analyses of aggregated data concerning the duration of advertising carryover using this theoretical explanation and the knowledge of a data interval bias the paper reviews and summarizes the empirical work in the area of sales response modeling and then after adjusting for aggregation bias presents support for an empirical generalization that the average advertising duration interval is of brief duration typically between six and nine months

direct marketing indirect profits a strategic analysis of dual channel supply chain design the advent of e commerce has prompted many manufacturers to redesign their traditional channel structures by engaging in direct sales the model conceptualizes the impact of customer acceptance of a direct channel the degree to which customers accept a direct channel as a substitute for shopping at a traditional store on supply chain design the customer acceptance of a direct channel can be strong enough that an indepent manufacturer would open a direct channel to compete with its own retailers here direct marketing is used for strategic channel control purposes even though it is inefficient on its own and surprisingly it can profit the manufacturer even when so direct sales occur specifically we construct a price setting game between a manufacturer and its independent retailer direct marketing which indirectly increases the flow of profits through the retail channel helps the manufacturer improve overall profitability by reducing the degree of inefficient price double marginalization while operated by the manufacturer to constrain the retailer s pricing behavior the direct channel may not always be detrimental to the retailer because it will be accompanied by a wholesale price reduction this combination of manufacturer pull and push can benefit the retailer in equilibrium finally we show that the mere threat of introducing the direct channel can increase the manufacturer s negotiated share of cooperative profits even if price efficiency is obtained by using other business practices

carryover effects and temporal aggregation in a partial adjustment model framework this paper discusses the impact of aggregating time series observations on the specification of an econometric model in the framework of a familiar sales response model temporally aggregated specifications are derived it is illustrated that different aggregation schemes provide different models each of them having appealing characteristics furthermore the derived specifications illustrate that frequently calibrated models are misspecified and as such provide biased estimates which significantly affect the interpretation of the results some suggestions are provided for estimating the exact specifications in such a way that the obtained parameter estimates provide correct insights into the underlying response process

further results on aggregation of differential demand equations barnett 1979a 1981 theil s extending 1971 work aggregates differential demand equations in absolute undeflated prices this paper extends further these results by deriving aggregate macro demand equations in relative prices under stated assumptions these equations are analogous to the individual consumer s micro demand equations and the properties of the microcoefricients carry over

productivity analysis of u s manufacturing using a stochastic coefficients production function in this article we show that the production aggregation and estimation theories that lead to a stochastic coefficients production function are more general than those leading to a fixed coefficients production function estimates of productivity changes implied by these two types of cobb douglas production functions are compared for several u s manufacturing sectors for the period 1955 1982 all of the estimates of the stochastic coefficients cobb douglas function have the right algebraic sign for all industries considered whereas some of the estimates of its fixed coefficients counterpart have the wrong sign

estimating micro relationships from macro data a comparative study of two approximations of the brand loyal model under temporal aggregation the data interval bias issue in econometric studies of the relationship between advertising and sales first was discussed in jmr by clarke in 1976 within the last few years several studies report

island goes dark transparency fragmentation and regulation responding to a september 2002 regulatory enforcement the island electronic communications network stopped displaying its limit order book in the three most active exchange traded funds etfs where it was the dominant venue island s share of trading activity and price discovery fell fragmenting the market etf prices adjust more slowly when island goes dark and there is substantial price discovery movement from etfs to the futures market trading costs increase on island and decrease off island with higher trading costs overall when island later redisplays its orders market quality improves with transparency and the reduction in fragmentation both playing important roles copyright 2005 oxford university press

restoring a fish stock a dynamic bankruptcy problem total allowable catch tac regulating schemes have been introduced in most fisheries tac distribution following the proportional rule based on historical catches implies that harvesters or vessel groups that have captured more in the past and contributed to overfishing are getting larger quotas than groups that have contributed less to overfishing in contrast to this rule a more egalitarian rule the constrained equal award rule is proposed for distributing the tac contingent upon the fishing techniques used by the harvesters it is demonstrated how the fish stock recovery period harvest and profitability may vary according to these two rules

make take structure and market quality evidence from the u s options markets we examine the make take structure which compensates liquidity suppliers and charges liquidity demanders in the options markets where it competes with a traditional structure that uses payments for order flow using the introduction of the make take structure as an event we find that execution costs including fees for liquidity demanders decline after the event for the affected options that the make take structure encourages market makers to improve quoted prices and that brokers change their routing behavior to include fees in the routing decision the decline in execution costs is consistent with the benefits of the increased quote competition from the make take structure prevailing over the fees the structure charges to liquidity demanders this paper was accepted by wei jiang finance

price and lead time decisions in dual channel supply chains abstract manufacturers today are increasingly adopting a dual channel to sell their products i e the traditional retail channel and an online direct channel empirical studies have shown that service quality we focus on the delivery lead time of the direct channel even goes beyond product price as one of the major factors influencing consumer acceptance of the direct channel delivery lead time has significant effects on demand profit and pricing strategy however there is scant literature addressing the decision on the promised delivery lead time of a direct channel and its impact on the manufacturer s and retailer s pricing decisions to fill this gap we examine the optimal decisions of delivery lead time and prices in a centralized and a decentralized dual channel supply chain using the two stage optimization technique and stackelberg game and analyze the impacts of delivery lead time and customer acceptance of a direct channel on the manufacturer s and retailer s pricing behaviours we analytically show that delivery lead time strongly influences the manufacturer s and the retailer s pricing strategies and profits our numerical studies reveal that the difference between the demand transfer ratios in the two channels with respect to delivery lead time and direct sale price customer acceptance of the direct channel and product type have great effects on the lead time and pricing decisions

temporal aggregation the data interval bias and empirical estimation of bimonthly relations from annual data in an important study reviewing the literature on econometric studies of the relationship between advertising and sales clarke clarke darral g 1976 econometric measurement of the duration of advertising effects on sales j marketing res 13 november 345 357 concluded that the implied duration interval of the effects of advertising on sales were too long when the studies used annual data a theoretical explanation is provided here for the observation of parameter estimates which vary with the data interval employed in the analysis parameter estimates are developed on the basis of data aggregated at various levels of temporal aggregation and compared with theoretical values it is demonstrated that it is possible to recover bimonthly parameters when only annual data are available

pricing effects when competitors arrive the case of discount certificates in germany this article investigates how overpricing of outstanding certificates also called master certificates changes when competing products that duplicate the features of master certificates are issued i argue that competition effects may be reverted and overpricing may increase rather than decrease after competitors arrive when retail investors fail to detect implications of credit risk differences on certificates values using difference in differences estimations on matched samples i find that overpricing of master certificates decreases after the competing products have been issued but only when the master issuer s credit risk is lower than that of the duplicate issuer while it increases when the credit risk difference is positive these findings are robust to controlling for retail investors demand in various ways thus the study indicates that retail investors failure to detect the value implications of issuers credit risk can undermine product competition

promised delivery time and capacity games in time based competition we investigate firms competitive behaviors in industries where customers are sensitive to both promised delivery time pdt and quality of service qos measured by the on time delivery rate to study the competition in pdt at the marketing level we construct an oligopoly game with an external qos requirement we show that there exists a unique nash equilibrium and the equilibrium qos exhibits a switching surface structure with respect to capacities to study the competition in capacity at the strategic level we construct a two stage game in which the firms compete in terms of their capacities in stage 1 and in terms of pdt in stage 2 we show the existence of two different types of pure strategy equilibria and characterize them this study provides the following insights an index of time based competitive advantage itca and the first mover advantage determine the positions of the firms in time based competition either the well known prisoner s dilemma or off equilibrium behaviors due to different preferences for equilibria when multiple equilibria exist may lead the firms to overinvest in capacity but no one may gain a competitive advantage a uniform improvement in internal efficiency i e a uniform capacity cost reduction may harm everyone quality differentiation i e going beyond the qos benchmark plays a dual role in time based competition either helping a firm with a larger itca to compete more effectively or helping a firm possibly with a smaller itca to preempt competitors and protect its market advantage this paper was accepted by paul h zipkin operations and supply chain management

chapter 9 econometric and time series market response models publisher summary marketing has seen a rapid expansion in the widespread use of quantitative methods correlation and regression analysis were among the first techniques used as marketing research emerged as a discipline after world war ii in the early 1970s regression analysis became econometrics simultaneous equation systems could be estimated almost as easily as single regression equations while econometrics as a whole continues to flourish as new and more sophisticated estimation techniques and associated computer software have become available simultaneous equation systems have not become widely prevalent the dynamic structure of marketing variables themselves is addressed in the chapter followed by discussions of leads and lags among marketing variables and the assessment of the direction of causality dynamic properties of sales response functions have been discussed in more detail marketing generalizations that have been uncovered as well as empirical evidence on the shape of the sales response function is reported

wearout effects of different advertising themes a dynamic bayesian model of the advertising sales relationship models of advertising response implicitly assume that the entire advertising budget is spent on disseminating one message in practice managers use different themes of advertising for example price advertisements versus product advertisements and within each theme they employ different versions of an advertisement in this study we evaluate the dynamic effects of different themes of advertising that have been employed in a campaign we develop a model that jointly considers the effects of wearout as well as that of forgetting in the context of an advertising campaign that employs five different advertising themes we quantify the differential wearout effects across the different themes of advertising and examine the interaction effects between the different themes using a bayesian dynamic linear model dlm such a response model can help managers decide on the optimal allocation of resources across the portfolio of ads as well as better manage their scheduling we develop a model to show how our response model parameters can be used to improve the effectiveness of advertising budget allocation across different themes we find that a reallocation of resources across different themes according to our model results in a significant improvement in demand

introduction of a second channel implications for pricing and profits in this paper we study the optimal pricing strategies when a product is sold on two channels such as the internet and a traditional channel we assume a stylized deterministic demand model where the demand on a channel depends on prices degree of substitution across channels and the overall market potential we first study four prevalent pricing strategies which differ in the degree of autonomy for the internet channel for a monopoly we provide theoretical bounds for these pricing strategies we also analyze the duopoly case where an incumbent mixed retailer faces competition with a pure retailer and characterize price equilibria finally through a computational study we explore the behavior price and profits under different parameters and consumer preferences for the alternative channels

contracting with an urgent supplier under cost information asymmetry abstract we investigate a contract setting problem faced by a manufacturer who can procure major modules from an overseas supplier as well as a local supplier the overseas supplier is prime and offers quality products whereas the local supplier is viewed only as a backup and its products are inferior in quality as the local supplier needs to put in additional effort to fulfill the urgent orders it is difficult for the manufacturer to estimate this urgent supplier s production cost this asymmetric cost information becomes an obstacle for the manufacturer in managing the urgent supplier in this paper we study two types of contingent contracts one is the common price only contract and the other is a contract menu consisting of a transfer payment and a lead time quotation we construct a stackelberg game model and evaluate how the involvement of an urgent supplier with private cost information affects performances of the prime supplier and the manufacturer in different scenarios with or without the urgent supplier under different contingent contracts we also conduct numerical experiments to show how the parameters of the contracts affect profits of the manufacturer

unobserved diversity depletion and irreversibility the importance of subpopulations for management of cod stocks abstract diversity is often associated with resilience but in this model unobserved genetic or behavioral diversity can explain the collapse of supposedly regulated fish stocks such as cod recent studies have shown the existence of separate sub stocks of cod even at a very fine geographical scale we show that modeling a group of distinct stocks as if it were one large stock will tend to over estimate the growth and harvest potential if quotas are based on such over estimates the unobserved stock diversity can explain sudden stock collapses and unexpectedly slow recovery as observed for canadian cod it is a lack of information concerning diversity that leads to irreversibility the differences between the various stocks may be behavioral or genetic but cannot be observed by the fishermen or regulators who believe that there is a gradual decline in one big stock while in fact they are witnessing the successive disappearance of a series of sub stocks

competition interlisting and market structure in options trading abstract this paper applies a game theory approach to examine the effects of a market structure change in options trading from a monopoly to a cournot type oligopoly that occurred in two successive periods on the montreal exchange we analyze the intra day behaviour of option bid ask spreads and find that cross listing has a differential impact on spreads affecting quoted but not effective spreads under oligopoly we also find that the impact of the change in structure on effective spreads comes mostly from an increase in limit orders and is consistent with a switch from cournot to bertrand type strategic behaviour for such orders we conclude that market structure effects within an options exchange are enough to realize most of the benefits of inter market competition even in the context of market thinness

distribution channel strategies in a mixed market abstract this paper studies equilibrium channel strategies in a mixed market with a public firm and a private firm the public firm is concerned with social welfare while the private firm aims to maximize its own profit each firm decides whether to adopt an integrated or a decentralized channel we examine two standard market competition modes bertrand and cournot within each competition mode we consider two typical vertical contracts wholesale price and two part tariff contracts our results suggest that equilibrium channel structures depend on the market competition mode the vertical contract form and the level of product substitutability specifically the channel strategy of the private firm depends mainly on the vertical contract form under a two part tariff contract the private firm always chooses decentralization under a wholesale price contract the private firm chooses integration for most scenarios except for highly substitutable products under bertrand competition i e under very intense competition the channel strategy of the public firm depends mainly on the competition mode under bertrand competition the public firm always chooses decentralization under cournot competition the public firm always chooses the opposite of the private firm s strategy

quota induced discarding in heterogeneous fisheries abstract individual quota iq programs are a promising and increasingly common means of regulating fisheries this paper examines how profit maximizing fishers respond to different types of iq programs in fisheries where many types of fish are harvested simultaneously this analysis shows that the most common types of individual quota programs can induce discarding and that individual quota programs that regulate the value of harvests never induce discarding since discarded fish have a high mortality rate value based individual quota programs are superior to their more conventional counterparts in that they waste fewer fish the disadvantages of value based quotas are also examined results are driven by the fact that the harvest technology examined here does not satisfy a free disposal assumption since this free disposal assumption is ubiquitous in production theory and not obviously true the framework developed herein may be useful for analyzing a broad class of problems involving joint production

a natural experiment of the effect of advertising on sales the sasol case the effect of advertising in a major product category petrol on the market share of a brand petrol produced by sasol of south africa was estimated using variants of a koyck distributed lag model our use of a single equation model was supported by granger causality tests showing that advertising caused sales but that sales did not simultaneously cause advertising the situation is a unique natural experiment in that non promotional variables in the marketing mix price location of sale and product characteristics are largely invariant between sasol s petrol and competing brands allowing isolation of the effect of advertising on market share dummy variables were used to allow for the varying effect of different advertising campaigns and thus allow for the quality of advertising copy the results supported the hypotheses that sales are determined by past as well as current advertising expenditures but that the cumulative effects of advertising lasts for months rather than years the major finding

fishing technology and optimal distribution of harvest rates this paper examines the problem of the optimal management of a joint ownership fishing exploitation where agents use different fishing gears we consider a model in which the fishing activity may affect resource growth not only through the harvest function but also through the natural growth rate of the resource this allows us to capture the fact that some fishing gears alter the natural growth rate of the resource we find that when the natural growth of the resource is altered by the fishing technology the optimal stock is not independent of how harvest quotas are distribute among the agents as a result a fishing policy that firstly determines the optimum stock and secondly decides how to distribute the harvest among the different agents will not be efficient we also analyze the joint determination of optimal stock and harvest quotas and show that positive harvest quotas will only be optimal when countries are characterized by certain asymmetries