cost of living inequality during the great recession using detailed barcode level data we construct income group specific price indices for the period of 2004 to 2010 we find substantial differences across income groups arising mainly during the great recession the annual cost of living inflation of the highest quartile has been on average 0 7 percentage points lower than that of the lowest quartile of the income distribution the difference can be explained by the way consumers adjusted their shopping behavior to mitigate the crisis we find that product quality substitution a margin mostly available to richer households is the main mechanism explaining the differences in cost of living inflation our evidence suggests that not accounting for these differences during economic downturns could lead to significant biases in the calculation of inequality and poverty measures jel classifications d12 e31 e32 we thank fernando alvarez erik hurst anil kashyap robert lucas and joseph vavra for their advice and support the paper benefited from comments and suggestions by many others including bong geun choi jorge l garcia jessie handbury sara moreira roberto robatto adriaan ten kate yike wang chen yeh and seminar participants at the university of chicago iea meeting washington university graduate student conference and the midwest macro meeting contacts david argente dargente uchicago edu munseob lee munseob uchicago edu

dynamic programming model estimates of social security disability insurance application timing this paper develops a dynamic programming model of the social security disability insurance ssdi application timing decision we estimate the time to application from the point at which a health condition first begins to affect the kind or amount of work that a currently employed person can do we use health and retirement study hrs and restricted access social security earnings data for estimation our results show that the type of work limiting health condition presence of employer accommodation and the relative value of income in the application state to income in the work state significantly affect the timing of ssdi application copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

evaluating social policy by experimental and nonexperimental methods although it is important to establish causal relationships in social policy evaluation the effects are difficult to observe due to sample selection to evaluate the performance of estimators designed to handle sample selection bias we analyse data from a norwegian rehabilitation project with a randomised experimental design the data permit us to compare the performance of different nonexperimental estimators with the experimental results in our case study we find that nonexperimental evaluation based on sample selection estimators with selection terms that fail to meet conventional levels of statistical significance is highly unreliable the difference in difference estimator and propensity score matching estimators perform better in our context jel classification c51 j24 h43 i12

the elasticity of substitution between time and market goods evidence from the great recession we document a change in household shopping behavior during the great recession households purchased more on sale larger sizes and generic products and increased coupon usage and shopping at discount stores we estimate a decline in returns to shopping during the recession therefore the increase in shopping behavior implies a significant decrease in households opportunity cost of time using the estimated cost of time and time use data we estimate a high elasticity of substitution between market expenditure and time spent on nonmarket work we find that households smooth a sizable fraction of consumption by varying their time allocation during recessions

a joint dynamic model of fertility and work of married women this article estimates a dynamic model of fertility and labor supply of married women drawn from the national longitudinal survey of young women 1968 91 it distinguishes part time and full time employment sectors which differ by pecuniary and nonpecuniary returns and transferability of human capital the model with unobserved heterogeneity in earning ability and preferences for children fits the data and produces reasonable forecasts of labor force participation in decisions the estimates unpack important features of the persistence in labor market decisions intertemporal substitution of leisure over the life cycle and the effect of work interruptions due to childbirth on lifetime utility

nonparametric estimation of the impact of taxes on female labor supply this paper proposes a simple extension of nonparametric estimation methods for nonlinear budget set models derived in blomquist and newey 2002 to censored dependent variables the nonparametric method is applied to estimate female labor supply elasticities using data on married women from the 1985 and 1989 waves of the panel study of income dynamics exploiting the substantial variation in budget sets caused by the tax reform act of 1986 as a source of identification the estimated wage elasticities from this new method are 0 56 overall and 0 27 on the intensive margin the income elasticity estimates are close to 0 67 overall and 0 13 on the intensive margin compared with the linear labor supply model the estimated elasticities are usually larger for the nonparametric specifications that account for nonlinear budget sets copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

labor force dynamics of older married couples this article analyzes the dynamics of joint labor force behavior of older couples in the united states using the retirement history survey rhs i analyze the determinants of joint retirement and the effect of one spouse s labor force status on the labor force transitions of the other spouse the results reveal strong associations between the labor force transition probabilities of one spouse and the labor force status of the other spouse these result from structural differences in exit and entry behavior by the spouse s status several lagged endogenous variables have substantial effects on behavior even after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity

household production and the excess sensitivity of consumption to current income empirical research on the permanent income hypothesis pih has found that consumption growth is excessively sensitive to predictable changes in income this finding is interpreted as strong evidence against the pih we propose an explanation for apparent excess sensitivity that is based on a quantitative equilibrium model of household production in which permanent income consumers respond to shifts in sectoral wages and prices by substituting work effort and consumption across home and market sectors although the pih is true this mechanism generates apparent excess sensitivity because market consumption responds to predictable income growth

gluttony and sloth calories labour market activity and the rise of obesity the rise in obesity has largely been attributed to an increase in calorie consumption we show that official government household survey data indicate that levels of calorie consumption have declined in england between 1980 and 2013 while there has been an increase in calories from food eaten out at restaurants fast food soft drinks and confectionery overall there has been a decrease in total calories purchased households have shifted towards more expensive calories both by substituting away from home production towards market production and substituting towards higher quality foods we show that the decline in calories can be partially but not entirely rationalized with weight gain by a decline in the strenuousness of work and daily life jel d12 i12 i18

real time price indices inflation spike and falling product variety during the great lockdown we characterize inflation dynamics during the great lockdown using scanner data covering millions of transactions for fast moving consumer goods in the united kingdom we show that there was a significant and widespread spike in inflation first aggregate month to month inflation was 2 4 in the first month of lockdown a rate over 10 times higher than in preceding months over half of this increase stems from reduced frequency of promotions consumers purchasing power was further eroded by a reduction in product variety second 96 of households have experienced inflation in 2020 while in prior years around half of households experienced deflation third there was inflation in most product categories including those that experienced output falls only 13 of product categories experienced deflation compared with over half in previous years while market based measures of inflation expectations point to disinflation or deflation these findings indicate a risk of stagflation should not be ruled out we hope our approach can serve as a template to facilitate rapid diagnosis of inflation risks during economic crises leveraging scanner data and appropriate price indices in real time

working less and bargain hunting more macro implications of sales during japan s lost decades standard new keynesian models have often neglected temporary sales in this paper we ask whether this treatment is appropriate in the empirical part of the paper we provide evidence using japanese scanner data covering the last two decades that the frequency of sales was closely related with macroeconomic developments specifically we find that the frequency of sales and hours worked move in opposite directions in response to technology shocks producing a negative correlation between the two we then construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that takes households decisions regarding their allocation of time for work leisure and bargain hunting into account using this model we show that the rise in the frequency of sales which is observed in the data can be accounted for by the decline in hours worked during japan s lost decades we also find that the real effect of monetary policy shocks weakens by around 40 due to the presence of temporary sales but monetary policy still matters

life cycle prices and production we use scanner data and time diaries to document how households substitute time for money through shopping and home production we document substantial heterogeneity in prices paid for identical goods for the same area and time with older households shopping the most and paying the lowest prices doubling shopping frequency lowers a good s price by 7 to 10 percent we estimate the shopper s price of time and use this series to estimate an elasticity of substitution between time and goods in home production of roughly 1 8 the observed life cycle time allocation implies a consumption series that differs markedly from expenditures

semiparametric estimation of selection models some empirical results among the central theoretical developments in the econometric analysis of nonexperimental microeconomic data has been the analysis of selectivity bias following the work of james heckman 1974 statistical techniques were developed in the 1970s to consistently estimate the parameters of these models one potential drawback to the application of these techniques is their sensitivity to the assumed parametric distribution of the unobservable error terms in the model in recent years a number of estimation methods for selection models have been developed which do not impose parametric forms on error distributions these methods are termed semiparametric since only part of the model of interest the regression function is parametrically specified while the statistical theory of these semiparametric estimators has received much attention practical applications of the methods are lacking an exception being the paper by joel horowitz and george neumann 1987 in this paper we use semiparametric methods to reanalyze data on the labor supply of married women first studied by thomas mroz 1987 using parametric methods the object of this reanalysis is to determine whether mroz s results are sensitive to his parametric assumptions

moving back home insurance against labor market risk this paper demonstrates that the option to move in and out of the parental home is a valuable insurance channel against labor market risk which facilitates the pursuit of jobs with the potential for high earnings growth using monthly panel data i document an empirical relationship among coresidence individual labor market events and subsequent earnings growth i estimate the parameters of a dynamic game between youths and parents to show that the option to live at home can account for features of aggregate data for low skilled young workers small consumption responses to shocks high labor elasticities and low savings rates

identification and estimation of a class of household production models we consider a class of household production models characterized by a dichotomy property in these models the amount of time spent on household production does not depend on the household utility function conditional on household members having a paid job we analyse the non parametric identifiability of the production function and the so called jointness function a function describing which part of household production time is counted as pure leisure it is shown that the models are identified in the two adult case but not in the single adult case we present an empirical application to swedish time allocation data the estimates satisfy regularity conditions that were violated in previous studies and pass various specification tests for this data set we find that male and female home production time are q substitutes copyright c 2003 john wiley sons ltd

recent two stage sample selection procedures with an application to the gender wage gap recently developed two stage estimation methods of sample selection models are used in the context of data from the 1989 labor market activity survey to examine labor supply decisions and wage outcomes for employed men and women recent hypothesis test procedures are used to test for no sample selection and to test for a parametric against a semiparametric selection correction procedure we conclude that selection is indeed an issue for the sample at hand and that the semiparametric specification is appropriate we also present the standard decomposition of the gender wage gap into its explained and unexplained portions

heterogeneity and aggregation implications for labor market fluctuations we demonstrate that aggregate employment and consumption can increase without a corresponding movement in productivity in a model with heterogeneous agents where the only aggregate disturbance is a productivity shock the interaction between incomplete capital markets and indivisible labor results in a low employment productivity correlation and creates a time varying wedge between the marginal rate of substitution for commodity consumption and hours and productivity our results caution against viewing the measured wedge as an inefficiency due to a failure of labor market clearing or as a fundamental driving force behind business cycles jel d31 e32 j22 j24 j31

income and wealth effects on private label demand evidence from the great recession we measure the causal effects of income and wealth on the demand for private label products prior research suggests that these effects are large and in particular that private label demand rises during recessions our empirical analysis is based on a comprehensive household level transactions database matched with price information from store level scanner data and wealth data based on local house value indices the great recession provides a key source of the variation in our data showing a large and geographically diverse impact on household incomes over time we estimate income and wealth effects using within variation of income at the household level and wealth at the zip code level our estimates can be interpreted as income and wealth effects consistent with a consumer demand model based on utility maximization we establish a precisely measured negative effect of income on private label shares the effect of wealth is negative but not precisely measured however the estimated effect sizes

tax credits labour participation and home production in the netherlands we set up a dynamic reduced form model of labour market participation for women who balance career and motherhood the model accounts for the occurrence of future child birth and early retirement

trading down and the business cycle abstract we document two facts first during the great recession consumers traded down in the quality of the goods and services they consumed second the production of low quality goods is less labor intensive than that of high quality goods when households traded down labor demand fell increasing the recession s severity we find that the trading down phenomenon accounts for a substantial fraction of the decline in u s employment in the recent recession we show that embedding quality choice in a business cycle model improves the model s amplification and comovement properties

parametric and semiparametric estimation of sample selection models an empirical application to the female labour force in portugal this paper applies both parametric and semiparametric methods to the estimation of wage and participation equations for married women in portugal the semiparametric estimators considered are the two stage estimators proposed by newey 1991 and andrews and schafgans 1998 the selection equation results are compared using the specification tests proposed by horowitz 1993 horowitz and hardle 1994 and the wage equation results are compared using a hausman test significant differences between the two approaches indicate the inappropriateness of the standard parametric methods to the estimation of the model and for the purpose of policy simulations the greater departure seems to occur in the range of the low values of the index corresponding to a specific group of women copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

time use during the great recession using data from the american time use survey between 2003 and 2010 we document that home production absorbs roughly 30 percent of foregone market work hours at business cycle frequencies leisure absorbs roughly 50 percent of foregone market work hours with sleeping and television watching accounting for most of this increase we document significant increases in time spent on shopping child care education and health job search absorbs between 2 and 6 percent of foregone market work hours we discuss the implications of our results for business cycle models with home production and non separable preferences jel codes d13 e32 j22

semiparametric censored regression models aregression model is censored when the recorded data on the dependent variable cuts off outside a certain range with multiple observations at the endpoints of that range when the data are censored variation in the observed dependent variable will understate the effect of the regressors on the true dependent variable as a result standard ordinary least squares regression using censored data will typically result in coefficient estimates that are biased toward zero traditional statistical analysis uses maximum likelihood or related procedures to deal with the problem of censored data however the validity of such methods requires correct specification of the error distribution which can be problematic in practice in the past two decades a number of semiparametric alternatives for dealing with censored data have been proposed in a semiparametric approach part of the functional form of the model usually the regression function is parametrically specified by the researcher based upon plausible assumptions while the rest of the model is not parameterized 1 while the theoretical literature has produced several semiparametric estimators for the censored data model published applications of these estimators to empirical problems in economics have lagged far behind this paper reviews the intuition and computation of a handful of semiparametric estimators proposed for the censored regression model the various estimators are used to examine changes in black white earnings inequality during the

taxes and the labor market participation of married couples the earned income tax credit a distinguishing feature of recent changes to the us system of public assistance is its increasing focus on working families and reliance on the tax system to transfer dollars to needy families after a decade in near total obscurity the earned income tax credit eitc was expanded to become the largest cash transfer program for lower income families with children advocates of the eitc argue that unlike traditional welfare the credit helps promote both the values of family and work indeed empirical evidence consistent with economic theory suggests that the eitc promotes employment among eligible unmarried women with children to target benefits to lower income families however the eitc is based on family income leading to traditional welfare type disincentives for most eligible secondary earners in fact the eitc is likely to reduce overall family labor supply among married couples this paper examines the labor force participation response of married couples to eitc expansions between 1984 and 1996 the effect of the credit is estimated using both quasiexperimental and traditional reduced form labor supply models results from both models show the same qualitative conclusion that the eitc expansions reduced total family labor supply of married couples in all cases we find a decline in labor force participation by married women that more than offsets any rise in participation by their spouses while the labor force participation rate of married men increased by about 0 2 percentage points that of married women decreased by just over a full percentage point these aggregate effects mask substantial heterogeneity in the population women facing the strongest disincentives were more than 2 percentage points less likely to work after the expansions these findings imply that the eitc is effectively subsidizing married mothers to stay home and therefore have implications for the design of the program d 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

a structural dynamic analysis of retirement behaviour in the netherlands this study focuses on determinants of elderly labour force participation and retirement decisions in the netherlands this is analysed by a dynamic programming model for the simultaneous choice of retirement age and route which includes social insurance and private pensions eligibility conditions for early retirement lifecycle wage and health profiles and layoffs special attention is given to opportunities for and the effect of participation policies results show that institutional structures of benefit and pension programmes are prime determinants of retirement particularly eligibility conditions and potential substitution between exit routes and that dynamic aspects are relevant for understanding retirement behaviour copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

smoothed binary regression quantiles this paper extends results regarding smoothed median binary regression to general smoothed binary quantile regression discusses the interpretation of the resulting estimators under alternative assumptions and shows how they may be used to obtain semiparametric estimates of counterfactual probabilities the estimators are applied to a model of labour force participation of married women in the usa we find that the elasticity with respect to non labour income is significantly negative only for women that belong to the middle of the conditional willingness to participate wtp distribution in comparing the quantile models with parametric logit and semiparametric single index specifications we find that the models agree closely for women around the centre of the wtp distribution but there are considerable disagreements as we move towards the tails of the distribution copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd

do higher prices for new goods reflect quality growth or inflation much of consumer price index cpi inflation for consumer durables reflects shifts to newer product models that display higher prices not price increases for a given set of goods i examine how these higher prices for new models should be divided between quality growth and price inflation based on a whether consumer purchases shift toward or away from the new models and b whether new model price increases generate higher relative prices that persist through the model cycle i conclude that two thirds of the price increases with new models should be treated as quality growth this implies that cpi inflation for durables has been overstated by almost 2 percentage points per year with quality growth understated by the same magnitude

parametric and semi parametric estimation of the binary response model of labour market participation this paper compares the familiar probit model with three semiparametric estimators of binary response models in an application to labour market participation of married women this exercise is performed using two different cross section data sets from switzerland and germany for the swiss data the probit specification cannot be rejected and the models yield similar results in the german case the probit model is rejected but the coefficient estimates do not vary substantially across the models the predicted choice probabilities however differ systematically for a subset of the sample the results of this paper indicate that more work is necessary on specification tests of semiparametric models and on simulations using these models

consumer shopping behavior how much do consumers save this paper documents the potential and actual savings that consumers realize from four particular types of purchasing behavior purchasing on sale buying in bulk at a lower per unit price buying generic brands and choosing outlets how much can and do households save through each of these behaviors how do these patterns vary with consumer demographics we use data collected by a marketing firm on all food purchases brought into the home for a large nationally representative sample of u k households in 2006 we are interested in how consumer choice affects the measurement of price changes in particular a standard price index based on a fixed basket of goods will overstate the rise in the true cost of living because it does not properly consider sales and bulk purchasing according to our measures the extent of this bias might be of the same or even greater magnitude than the better known substitution and outlet biases

estimating the effect of financial aid offers on college enrollment a regression discontinuity approach an important problem faced by colleges and universities that of evaluating the effect of their financial aid offers on student enrollment decisions is complicated by the likely endogeneity of the aid offer variable in a student enrollment equation this article shows how discontinuities in an east coast college s aid assignment rule can be exploited to obtain credible estimates of the aid effect without having to rely on arbitrary exclusion restrictions and functional form assumptions semiparametric estimates based on a regression discontinuity rd approach affirm the importance of financial aid as an effective instrument in competing with other colleges for students

quantifying quality growth we introduce an instrumental variables approach to estimate the importance of unmeasured quality growth for a set of 66 durable consumer goods our instrument is based on predicting which of these 66 goods will display rapid quality growth using pooled cross relatively sections of households in the 1980 through 1996 u s consumer expenditure surveys we estimate quality engel curves for 66 durable consumer goods based on the extent richer households pay more for a good conditional on purchasing we use the slopes of these curves to predict the rate of quality upgrading just as if households are ascending these quality engel curves over time we find that the average price paid rises faster for goods with steeper quality slopes bls prices likewise increase more quickly for goods with steeper quality slopes suggesting the bls does not fully net out the impact of quality upgrading on prices paid we estimate that quality growth averages about 3 7 per year for our goods with about 60 of this or 2 2 per year showing up as higher inflation rather than higher real growth

frugality is hard to afford intertemporal savings strategies such as bulk buying or accelerating purchase timing to take advantage of a good deal provide long term savings in exchange for an increase in immediate spending

shopping around how households adjusted food spending over the great recession over the great recession real wages stagnated and unemployment increased concurrently food prices rose sharply outstripping growth in food expenditure and leading to a reduction in calories purchased this has led to concern about rising food poverty we study british households to assess how they adjusted to changes in the economic environment we show they switched to cheaper calories implying food consumption was smoother than expenditure we use longitudinal data to quantify the way households lowered their per calorie spending and show they done this in part by increasing shopping eort and without lowering the nutritional quality of