determinants of trade costs and trade growth accounting between india and the european union during 1995 2010 this study aimed to utilise the micro founded measure of trade cost derived by novy to estimate the relative bilateral trade costs of india with its european union partners the advantage of using such a model is that the trade costs can be derived entirely using observable trade data the results show that indian tariff equivalent with its major eu trading partners has declined by 20 percentage points between 1995 and 2010 with malta and latvia experiencing the greatest decline the study then decomposes the bilateral trade growth to ascertain whether it is an outcome of increased domestic production or reduction in bilateral and multilateral trade barriers novy s model indicates that the decline in relative bilateral trade costs explains the greatest percentage of this trade growth which is partially offset by decline in multilateral resistance terms that has diverted trade away to other trading partners primarily in south and south east asia and north america

rational household labor supply traditionally household behavior is derived from the maximization of a unique utility function in this paper we propose an alternative approach in which the household is modeled as a two member collectivity taking pareto efficient decisions the consequences of this assumption are analyzed in a three good model in which only total consumption and each member s labor supply are observable if the agents are assumed egoistic i e they are only concerned with their own leisure and consumption it is possible to derive falsifiable conditions upon household labor supplies from both a parametric and nonparametric viewpoint if alternatively agents are altruistic restrictions obtain in the nonparametric context useful interpretation stems from the comparison with the characterization of aggregate demand for a private good economy

real exchange rates and time varying trade costs this paper re examines the empirical modeling of purchasing power parity ppp deviations in the presence of commodity market frictions first we show that a specific type of smooth transition models can closely approximate the functional form of the theoretical adjustment mechanism derived by dumas 1992 dynamic equilibrium and the real exchange rate in a spatially separated world review of financial studies 5 2153 180 for the case of constant as well as changing trade costs second we develop for the first time an empirical model of the real exchange rate which allows for changes in the degree of market integration by employing a long span of data on the dollar sterling real exchange rate and a micro founded proxy for trade frictions we provide novel evidence of a significant relationship between the persistence of the real exchange rate and the level of trade costs this finding suggests that both the difficulty of detecting ppp and the extend of rogoff s puzzle vary over time with the degree of trade restrictiveness finally we highlight policy repercussions of our results

the gatt in historical perspective the transformation of the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt into the world trade organization wto on january 1 1995 provides an opportune moment to take stock of the gatt s achievements and shortcomings alongside those of its 50 year old sister international institutions set up at bretton woods it is temptingly easy to attribute the astounding postwar economic expansion particularly when set against the turbulent interwar period when multilateral efforts to contain protectionist pressures failed miserably to the economic policies embodied in the gatt and to the initial stability provided by the bretton woods institutions yet a closer look at precisely what the gatt accomplished in its first decade suggests that trade liberalization under its auspices alone is far from sufficient to explain the postwar economic boom

the saving behaviour of a two person household the facts that wives are typically younger than their husbands and that women typically live longer than men imply that wives may have more incentive to save for old age than do husbands a theoretical model of the determination of household saving and portfolio choice is introduced which takes into account differences in preferences for saving the most important result is that the level and the composition portfolio of saving and the time path of consumption are dependent on the distribution of income within the household women typically live longer than men and wives are typically younger than their husbands these two facts imply that preferences about saving for old age in married households with forward looking members may differ between husband and wife this paper presents a theoretical analysis of saving and portfolio behaviour if the members of the household have differ ent preferences over future consumption as compared to current consump tion the analysis stands in contrast to unitary models of household intertemporal allocation which assume that the household has a single utility function thus this paper is a contribution in a novel context to the burgeoning literature on intra household decision making the base case analysis is for a simple two person husband and wife1 two period model in which there is only one asset saving it is assumed that because of the two facts given at the start of the introductory paragraph the husband discounts the future more than the wife in section ii the implications of a non cooperative decision making process for the base case are derived see ulph 1988 for a non cooperative model of demand and

rules of origin and the profitability of trade deflection abstract when a country grants preferential tariffs to another either reciprocally in a free trade agreement fta or unilaterally rules of origin roos are defined to determine whether a product is eligible for preferential treatment roos exist to avoid that exports from third countries enter through the member with the lowest tariff trade deflection however roos distort exporters sourcing decisions and burden them with red tape using a global data set we show that for 86 of all bilateral product level comparisons within ftas trade deflection is not profitable because external tariffs are rather similar and transportation costs are non negligible in the case of unilateral trade preferences extended by rich countries to poor ones that ratio is a striking 98 the pervasive and unconditional use of roos is therefore hard to rationalize

do husbands and wives pool their resources evidence from the united kingdom child benefit common preference models of family behavior imply income pooling a restriction on family demand functions such that only the sum of husband s income and wife s income affects the allocation of goods and time testing the pooling hypothesis is difficult because most family income sources are not exogenous to the allocations being analyzed in this paper we present an alternative test based on a natural experiment a policy change in the united kingdom that transferred a substantial child allowance to wives in the late 1970s using family expenditure survey data we find strong evidence that a shift toward greater expenditures on women s clothing and children s clothing relative to men s clothing coincided with this income redistribution

one money one market the effect of common currencies on trade currency unions their dramatic effect on international trade a gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade the panel data bilateral observations for five years during 1970 90 covering 186 countries includes 300 observations in which both countries use the same currency i find a large positive effect of a currency union on international trade and a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility even after controlling for a host of features including the endogenous nature of the exchange rate regime these effects statistically significant imply that two countries sharing the same currency trade three times as much as they would with different currencies currency unions like the european emu may thus lead to a large increase in international trade with all that that entails andrew rose

gender and say a model of household behaviour with endogenously determined balance of power the evidence that the same total income can lead a household to choose different consumption vectors depending on who brings in how much of the income has led to an effort to replace the standard unitary model of the household with the collective model which recognizes that the husband and the wife may have different preferences and depending on the balance of power between them the household may choose differently one weakness of this new literature is that it fails to recognize that the household s choice could in turn influence the balance of power once this two way relation between choice and power is recognized we are forced to confront some new questions concerning how to model the household this paper tries to answer these by defining a household equilibrium examining its game theoretic properties and drawing out its testable implications it is shown for instance that once we allow for dynamic interaction a household can exhibit inefficient behavior and that for a certain class of parameters children will be less likely to work in a household where power is evenly balanced than one in which all power is concentrated in the hands of either the father or the mother the paper also draws out the implications for female labor supply

a cournot nash model of family decision making this paper models a two person family each family member is utility maximising yet family members are interdependent because of caring and public goods within the family the two family members interdependent utility maximisation problems are first solved using a non cooperative or cournot nash game theoretic framework the cournot nash equilibrium is then used as a threat point in a bargaining game the paper provides a rigorous derivation of the properties of household demands a full analysis of the determinants of intra household resource allocation including the effect of varying household bargaining power and consideration of policy implications

trade blocs currency blocs and the reorientation of world trade in the 1930s we analyze the impact of commercial and financial policies on the reorientation of trade in the 1930s we report evidence that commercial policies attenuated prior connections between income growth and trade and that exchange rate instability marginally discouraged international trade in contrast the tendency toward regionalization commonly ascribed to the formation of trade and currency blocs was already evident to a considerable extent prior to the regional policy initiatives of the 1930s this reorientation is more properly attributed to ongoing historical forces such as commercial and financial links between countries forged over many years

should we have a wto for international migration the international movement of labour remains much more restricted than movement of goods or capital and the worldwide economic gains to liberalizing migration are large this paper asks whether those gains could be realized through better international cooperation on migration along the lines of the wto for trade although public opinion is marginally more negative towards the liberalization of migration than of trade the key impediment is the lack of a basis for reciprocity in negotiations over migration and this is because migration is largely driven by absolute advantage rather than by comparative advantage as in the case of trade consequently there is no basis for wto style negotiations over migration and therefore no grounds for reforming the international architecture in the hope of fostering liberalization timothy j hatton

how serious is the neglect of intrahousehold inequality in this report the authors develop a framework for assessing the consequences of ignoring intrahousehold inequality in the measurement and analysis of poverty and inequality they apply this framework to data for the philippines and conclude that 1 the result of neglecting intrahousehold inequality will probably be considerable understatement of the levels of poverty and inequality with the philippine data measured levels of inequality and poverty were off 30 percent as a result of ignoring intrahousehold variation and 2 patterns of inequality revealed by household level data are somewhat different from patterns revealed by individual level data but the differences seem not to be dramatic to confirm these results the exercise should be repeated with data from other countries

employment unemployment and the minimum wage a causality model some empirical work concerning the minimum wage tends to confirm the negative impacts of the law on employment but much of that work leaves the existence and size of the fiat s effects uncertain furthermore many of the theoretical and statistical advances of the past 1 decades have yet to be incorporated into the analysis of the law s effects we apply time series and causality testing analysis developed from the transfer function to the minimum wage employment unemployment series we find some evidence that the minimum wage has lowered the employment of white male teenagers age 16 19 and nonwhite males over the age of 20 however these impacts are small no other significant employment impacts are discovered and no significant unemployment impacts are found additional study of the law s impacts using advanced statistical methods is required

inflation and the distribution of price changes across markets a causal analysis recent advances in time series methodology are applied to the investigation of causal relationships between monthly changes in the consumer price index and changes in its dispersion across different consumption categories this dispersion is associated with the degree to which relative prices are changing past inflation rates seem useful in forecasting changes in relative prices but not vice versa there is also a significant contemporaneous correlation between these series hence it is concluded that fluctuations in the inflation rate help cause fluctuations in relative prices but not vice versa unless the entire effect occurs within a month the analysis also serves to illustrate a new way to implement the granger causality concept

indirect measures of trade costs limitations and caveats abstract trade barriers which include transportation costs tariffs language barriers and bureaucratic red tape play a key role in the determination of trade flows because direct measures are only available for a few components researchers have developed so called indirect measures of trade costs which estimate bilateral trade integration from cross sectional variation in observed trade flows the paper explores the theoretical and empirical determinants of these indirect measures of trade costs the results suggest that while they do capture variation in trade barriers the indirect measures may also reflect variation in other factors such as differences in tastes and production costs

the effect of gender based returns to borrowing on intra household resource allocation in rural bangladesh summary income from rural microcredit borrowing can empower women and consequently lead to investments in children s education and health this article examines the effect of male and female self employment returns to borrowing in rural bangladesh on intra household resource allocation and decision making abilities and how these effects differ with different borrowing sources household expenditure patterns measure intra household allocation the results show that female borrowers are better able to allocate their income toward goods more valuable to them and make major household decisions when their income increases this serves as evidence of increased empowerment or bargaining power of rural women in bangladesh

taxation and the household abstract previous analyses of demand systems and the welfare effects of taxing male and female labour supplies suppress the analysis of household resource allocation by assuming a household utility function to analyse the implications of assuming this is not the case we construct a simple but fairly general model of household resource allocation and use the properties of the equilibrium of this model to characterise the effects of tax policy on individual utilities as determined by the household resource allocation process

exchange rate regimes and international trade evidence from the classical gold standard era in this paper we show that the spread of the classical gold standard in the late nineteenth century increased international trade flows this positive effect was compounded whenever a group of countries formed a monetary union applying the gravity model of trade to more than 1 100 country pairs during the 1870 1910 period we find that two countries on gold would trade 60 percent more with each other than with countries on a different monetary standard moreover a monetary union would more than double bilateral trade flows our findings are relevant for current discussions on alternative monetary arrangements for the twenty first century

collective household models principles and main results in the traditional approach to consumer behaviour it is assumed that households behave as if they were single decision making units this approach has methodological empirical and welfare economic deficiencies a valuable alternative to the traditional model is the collective approach to household behaviour the collective approach explicitly takes account of the fact that multi person households consist of several members which may have different preferences among these household members an intrahousehold bargaining process is assumed to take place in addition to providing an introduction to the collective approach this survey intends to show how different collective household models each with their own aims and assumptions are connected

collective labor supply and welfare the paper develops a general collective model of household labor supply in which agents are characterized by their own possibly altruistic preferences and household decisions are only assumed to be pareto efficient an alternative interpretation is that there are two stages in the internal decision process agents first share nonlabor income according to some given sharing rule then each one optimally chooses his or her own labor supply and consumption this setting is shown to generate testable restrictions on labor supplies moreover the observation of labor supply behavior is sufficient for recovering individual preferences and the sharing rule up to a constant finally the traditional tools of welfare analysis can be adapted to the new setting

determining the impact of economic factors on local government growth policy using time series analysis and transfer function models being able to predict building activity is important to public administrators and planners it has been widely established that there is a significant relationship between economic financial factors and local government growth policy as measured by building activity this paper describes and analyses this relationship through the use of time series methodology monthly data for input variables unemployment rate and prime interest rate are related to output variables the monthly issuance of single family building permits commercial and industrial permits total permits and the estimated construction cost per single family permit using time series intervention and transfer function analysis through the use of transfer functions residential permit decisions commercial and industrial permit activity and total permits issued for all uses are causally related to levels of unemployment and the prime rate with varying periods of delay before impact is felt in growth policy decisions

institutions in international relations understanding the effects of the gatt and the wto on world trade the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt and the world trade organization wto have been touted as premier examples of international institutions but few studies have offered empirical proof this article comprehensively evaluates the effects of the gatt wto and other trade agreements since world war ii our analysis is organized around two factors institutional standing and institutional embeddedness we show that many countries had rights and obligations or institutional standing in the gatt wto even though they were not formal members of the agreement we also expand the analysis to include a range of other commercial agreements that were embedded with the gatt wto using data on dyadic trade since 1946 we demonstrate that the gatt wto substantially increased trade for countries with institutional standing and that other embedded agreements had similarly positive effects moreover our evidence suggests that international trade agreements have complemented rather than undercut each other an earlier version of this article was presented at the 99th annual meeting of the american political science association philadelphia august 28 31 2003 we thank tim buthe joanne gowa miles kahler andrew rose arthur stein richard steinberg and seminar participants at stanford university the university of chicago pipes the university of california los angeles the university of california san diego and the university of virginia for many helpful comments we especially thank claire adida ashley conner moonhawk kim erin krampetz james morrison mike nardis natan sachs rachel rubinfeld and jessica weeks for excellent research assistance we are grateful for financial support from the national science foundation career grant ses 0548285 to tomz the stanford center for international development and the vice provost for undergraduate education at stanford

effects of microcredit and other loans on female empowerment in bangladesh the borrower s gender influences intra household resource allocation this article examines microcredit s effectiveness in empowering women borrowers in rural bangladesh it does so by examining how gender specific borrowing activities influence household expenditures which are either specifically of interest to men or women and by examining the effects of all loans rather than only those provided by microcredit organizations the article uses a quasi experimental design to identify the effects of borrowing by men and women by using an original combination of panel data and instrumental variables on subsamples of the surveyed population it finds that the borrower s gender affects how households allocate their resources to different expenditure items and assets that are valued differently by men and women in all the findings suggest that providing greater credit access to women may improve their household bargaining positions

the impact of group based credit programs on poor households in bangladesh does the gender of participants matter this paper estimates the impact of participation by gender in the grameen bank and two other group based micro credit programs in bangladesh on labor supply schooling household expenditure and assets the empirical method uses a quasi experimental survey design to correct for the bias from unobserved individual and village level heterogeneity we find that program credit has a larger effect on the behavior of poor households in bangladesh when women are the program participants for example annual household consumption expenditure increases 18 taka for every 100 additional taka borrowed by women from these credit programs compared with 11 taka for men

transportation costs and international trade in the second era of globalization while the precise causes of postwar trade growth are not well understood declines in transport costs top the lists of usual suspects however there is remarkably little systematic evidence documenting the decline this paper brings to bear an eclectic mix of data in order to provide a detailed accounting of the time series pattern of shipping costs the ad valorem impact of ocean shipping costs is not much lower today than in the 1950s with technological advances largely trumped by adverse cost shocks in contrast air shipping costs have dropped an order of magnitude and airborne trade has grown rapidly as a result as a result international trade has also experienced a significant rise in speed

intra household resource allocation an inferential approach if household income is pooled and then allocated to maximize welfare then income under the control of mothers and fathers should have the same impact on demand with survey data on family health and nutrition in brazil the equality of parental income effects is rejected unearned income in the hands of a mother has a bigger effect on her family s health than income under the control of a father for child survival probabilities the effect is almost twenty times bigger the common preference or neoclassical model of the household is rejected if unearned income is measured with error and income is pooled then the ratio of maternal to paternal income effects should be the same equality of the ratios cannot be rejected there is also evidence for gender preference mothers prefer to devote resources to improving the nutritional status of their daughters fathers to sons

testing the neoclassical model of family labor supply and fertility the mcelroy horney nash bargaining model of family demand behavior relaxes the restriction that nonearned income of husband and wife has the identical effect on family labor supply and commodity demands this restriction of the neoclassical model offamily behavior is tested for the determination of husband and wife labor supply andfertility based on the 1981 socioeconomic survey of thailand the neoclassical restriction is rejected for female labor supply andfertility another unexplored limitation offamily demand studies due to the sample self selection of intact marriages is empirically treated through alternative estimation strategies in this case a more sharply focused theory of marital behavior is needed to identify family demand models

trade costs 1870 2000 what has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past century and a half was it changes in global output or in the costs of international trade to address this question we derive a micro founded measure of aggregate bilateral trade costs based on a standard model of trade in differentiated goods these trade costs gauge the difference between observed bilateral trade and frictionless trade in terms of an implied markup on retail prices of foreign goods thus we are able to estimate the combined magnitude of tariffs transportation costs and all other macroeconomic frictions that impede interna tional trade but that are inherently difficult to observe we use this measure to examine the growth of global trade between 1870 and 1913 its retreat from 1921 to 1939 and its subsequent rise from 1950 to 2000 we find that trade cost declines explain roughly 55 percent of the pre world war i trade boom and 33 percent of the post world war ii trade boom while a precipi tous rise in trade costs explains the entire inter

capital flight to germany two alternative measures abstract we use two measures to study two capital flight channels for germany one measure is based on the concept of trade misinvoicing and one on net claims and liabilities in the eurosystem of central banks for both measures we propose refinements to enhance the assessment of capital flight we find that capital flight towards germany via these two channels has been quite sizable in the recent decade and can tally to about 2 of gdp annually regarding their determinants we show that the two capital flight measures are driven by both common and measure specific factors traditional determinants such as covered interest differentials only play a limited role while crisis specific factors such as economic policy uncertainty the ecb collateral policy as well as currency misalignment are driving factors of the investors apparent flight to safety behavior

agricultural trade and the gatt wto does membership make a difference recent empirical studies have estimated the trade flow effect of membership in the world trade organization wto and its predecessor the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt one important although largely untested conclusion from this literature is that the gatt wto works well if we ignore trade in agriculture one of the institutions seemingly apparent failures this article investigates this conclusion using a large panel of agricultural and non agricultural trade flows the results are impressive the multilateral institution has delivered significant positive effects on members agricultural trade despite its sensitive nature and the reluctance of members to undertake serious reform these findings are robust to various slices of the data and recent advances in the specification and estimation of the gravity equation to account for sample selection issues and the extensive margin of trade copyright 2012 oxford university press

global trade and the maritime transport revolution abstract what is the role of transport improvements in globalization we argue that the nineteenth century is the ideal testing ground maritime freight rates fell on average by 50 while global trade increased 400 from 1870 to 1913 we estimate the first indices of bilateral freight rates and directly incorporate these into a standard gravity model we also take the endogeneity of bilateral trade and freight rates seriously and propose an instrumental variables approach the results are striking we find no evidence that the maritime transport revolution was the primary driver of the late nineteenth century global trade boom

separate spheres bargaining and the marriage market this paper introduces the separate spheres bargaining model a new model of distribution within marriage it differs from divorce threat bargaining models e g manser brown mcelroy horney in that the threat point is not divorce but a noncooperative equilibrium within marriage this noncooperative equilibrium reflects traditional gender roles the predictions of our model thus differ from those of divorce threat bargaining models in the separate spheres model cash transfer payments to the mother and payments to the father can but need not imply different equilibrium distributions in existing marriages in the long run the distributional effects of transfer policies may be substantially altered by changes in the marriage market equilibrium

the unconditional most favored nation clause and the maintenance of the liberal trade regime in the postwar 1870s international institutions within the past thirty years become the subject of renewed interest as scholars vigorously dispute their utility neorealists draw on the post world war ii era to advance sweeping general claims of institutional inefficacy this study by contrast deploys the same hard test method grieco applied to the 1970s tokyo round negotiations to the crisis rife 1870s to construct a unique methodological objective a rigorous hard test of nineteenth century institutional autonomy three principal findings emerged first the maintenance of a liberal world economy in the turbulent 1870s is explained by an unlikely commercial instrument and the unprecedented regime design of an unexplored international institution respectively the unconditional most favored nation mfn clause and the informal conventional tariff system cts regime it underpinned not british hegemony second the international trade regime was not a public good unilaterally provisioned by hegemonic britain via the 1846 corn laws repeal the regime was instead a private good that was collectively provisioned by all its constituent member states via the unprecedented interstate practices institutionalized in the 1860 cobden chevalier treaty and then autonomously maintained by a negarchical and self enforcing sanctioning mechanism finally the informal cts regime s enforcement mechanism autonomously altered the interests and behaviors of states in directions incongruent with executive preferences solely through the brute force of rational calculations imposed by decentralized international institutional constraints both the french and british executives in the 1870s believed the regime was normatively inappropriate and unsuccessfully attempted to exit amid eight system threatening crises nonetheless the mfn based regime s self enforcing sanctioning mechanism autonomously induced compliance conceptualized as unitary states behavior deviating from executives first order preference the extraordinarily turbulent 1870s therefore provide an unexplored historical vantage point to make strong institutionalist claims in an era issue area and under conditions that they are least likely to be validated

a gravity criterium for discriminating traditional protection measures abstract the case of spain in the first globalization illustrates how the gravity equation as a tool from which to derive a comprehensive measure of trade costs can be used to test the soundness of alternative direct measures of specific costs

do wto members have more liberal trade policy abstract this paper uses 68 measures of trade policy and liberalization to ask if membership in the world trade organization wto and its predecessor the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt is associated with more liberal trade policy almost no measures of trade policy are significantly correlated with gatt wto membership trade liberalizations when they occur usually lag gatt entry by many years and the gatt wto often admits countries that are closed and remain closed for years the exception to the rule is that wto members tend to have slightly more freedom as judged by the heritage foundation s index