oil price uncertainty and the canadian economy evidence from a varma garch in mean asymmetric bekk model abstract in this paper we build on recent work by elder and serletis 2010 forthcoming and rahman and serletis forthcoming and investigate the relationship between oil price uncertainty and the level of economic activity using quarterly canadian data over the period from 1974 1 to 2010 1 in doing so we use a bivariate varma garch in mean asymmetric bekk model as detailed in engle and kroner 1995 grier et al 2004 and shields et al 2005 we show that the conditional variance covariance process underlying output growth and the change in the real price of oil exhibits significant non diagonality and asymmetry we also present evidence that increased uncertainty about the change in the real price of oil is associated with a lower average growth rate of real economic activity in canada consistent with the results in elder and serletis 2010 forthcoming and rahman and serletis forthcoming for the united states and elder and serletis 2009 for canada our results are robust to alternative measures of the price of oil alternative measures of the level of economic activity and alternative data frequencies

measuring contagion between energy market and stock market during financial crisis a copula approach abstract in this paper we apply time varying copulas to investigate whether a contagion effect existed between energy and stock markets during the recent financial crisis using the wti oil spot price the s p500 index the shanghai stock market composite index and the shenzhen stock market component index returns evidence was found for a significantly increasing dependence between crude oil and stock markets after the failure of lehman brothers thus supporting the existence of contagion in the sense of forbes and rigobon s 2002 definition moreover increased tail dependence and symmetry characterize all the paired markets this indicates that significant increases in tail dependence are an actual dimension of the contagion phenomenon and that crude oil and stock prices are linked to the same degree regardless of whether markets are booming or crashing during the sample period finally the contagion effect is found to be much weaker for china than the us the empirical results have potentially important implications for risk management

oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies energy security issues coupled with increased concern over the natural environment are driving factors behind oil price movements while it is widely accepted that rising oil prices are good for the financial performance of alternative energy companies there has been relatively little statistical work done to measure just how sensitive the financial performance of alternative energy companies are to changes in oil prices in this paper a four variable vector autoregression model is developed and estimated in order to investigate the empirical relationship between alternative energy stock prices technology stock prices oil prices and interest rates our results show technology stock prices and oil prices each individually granger cause the stock prices of alternative energy companies simulation results show that a shock to technology stock prices has a larger impact on alternative energy stock prices than does a shock to oil prices these results should be of use to investors managers and policy makers

a new index of financial conditions we use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time varying coefficients and stochastic volatility to construct a financial conditions index that can accurately track expectations about growth in key us macroeconomic variables time variation in the models parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time furthermore we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection which allow the financial variables entering into the financial conditions index to change over time we discuss why such extensions of the existing literature are important and show them to be so in an empirical application involving a wide range of financial variables

regional and copula estimation effects on eu and us energy equity portfolios the aim of this paper is to investigate the regional interdependence structure of energy equities in the us and in the eu based on weekly stock prices of 28 big energy firms in the two regions fro

oil price shocks and european industries abstract we investigate the impact of oil price shocks at the industry level in the euro area for the period 1983 2007 we use different oil price specifications and use dynamic var models and multivariate regression to investigate how 38 different industries respond to oil price shocks we pay specific attention to the asymmetry of the industries responses regarding oil price increases and decreases we find that the impact of oil price shocks substantially differs along the different industries we find that the significance of this result also differs along the various oil price specifications the results are quite robust to the way in which we model the problem

the implicit pension contract developments and new directions pension economics has emerged as a separate literature over the past decade some of the early pension work was devoted to financial issues including implications of pensions for savings rates and portfolio allocation most new developments however have stemmed from research surrounding labor markets this research has led to an implicit contract theory of pensions a theory that has pensions playing a more complicated role in worker firm relation than heretofore realized the theory explains much of economic behavior in labor markets and bridges a gap between labor and financial literatures this essay describes the genesis for these ideas and traces some of the most important research results in the area an equal amount of spece is devoted to a consideration of likely directions for future research

connectedness network and dependence structure mechanism in green investments abstract we present an empirical study of renewable energy stock returns and their relation to four major investment asset classes stocks currency us treasury bonds and oil and several sources of uncertainty applying nonlinear causality and connectedness network analysis on data covering the period 2004 2016 we investigate the directionality and connectedness among different asset classes as well as between uncertainties first from the results of the estimation of directionality and network spillovers it can be concluded that the european stock market has a strong market dependence on renewable energy stock prices second uncertainties have an economically significant impact on both return and volatility spillover in energy investments third most of the uncertainties are net transmitters of volatility connectedness during the global financial crisis gfc and european sovereign debt crisis esdc

assessment of the relationship between oil prices and us oil stocks abstract this paper qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the relationship between us monthly ending oil stocks position with that of west texas intermediate wti oil prices from february 1995 to july 2004 the paper concludes if other things are held constant wti is inversely related to the petroleum products ppp combined petroleum products and crude oil cppp crude oil alone crude total oil stocks including petroleum products crude oil and strategic petroleum reserves spr total total gasoline tgo total distillate tdo it could not establish a statistically significant and negative relationship with spr when run alone one percent increase decrease in cppp ppp crude total tgo and tdo leads to decrease increase in wti respectively by 0 70 0 43 0 37 0 97 0 26 and 0 21 percent oil prices are largely influenced by total crude and crude and ppp inventories levels while modestly with variations in gasoline and distillate stocks levels despite a healthy increase of over 22 percent in spr from january 2001 to april 2004 it did not result in easing of oil prices primarily because spr are meant for security of supply concern and are only released under extreme conditions by the president of united states they are neither meant for the purposes of balancing supply demand gap nor for the stability of oil prices the aggressive spr buildup in recent years is related to international terrorism geopolitical situation in the middle east particularly in iraq that encourages us government to enhance its spr to meet any short term eventuality the analyst must keep a close eye on cppp and the total oil stocks variation to forecast wti in the short run whilst gasoline and distillate influence oil prices modestly in the short run spr on the other hand are expected to play a pivotal role in balancing oil prices and in providing a critical resource for the economy in case of any major shortfall in the long run

recent development of energy supply and demand in china and energy sector prospects through 2030 abstract facing multiple pressures including its commitment to energy efficiency improvement the current worldwide recession and global warming concerns china is making great efforts to maintain its continuous economic growth and reduce pollutant emissions many policies to encourage investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy have been issued this article provides insights into the latest development of energy production energy consumption and energy strategic planning and policies in china and also describes the analysis carried out by the authors as part of the asian energy security project using the long range energy alternatives planning leap modeling tool of the impacts of implementing new and expected energy and environmental policies

a note on the substitution between wage and non wage benefits in spot labour markets abstract recent empirical work suggests that spot labour market workers have a strong preference towards wages over fringe benefits this paper provides a theoretical framework based on this finding after a discussion of the utility function and equilibrium the paper proceeds to a comparative statics analysis an important result is that workers spend all extra compensation on wages only this is shown to be true in the case that wage benefits are taxed furthermore proportional taxes have no effect for workers choice between wage and non wage benefits

turnover costs and the wage fringe mix this paper examines how firms choose their compensation package to influence employee turnover a firm will attempt to maintain a steady state of trunover consistent with its training and hiring costs we develop a model of this relationship when the firm s ability to offer a differentiated compensation package both the theoretical and empirical findings of our study emphasize the importance of the link between turnover costs and the compensation mix that is quits are negatively realted to both the share of pensions in the total compensation package and the level of wages the influence of pensions in attracting stable workers however is diminishing an important implication is that the policies which attempt to standardize worker compensation will hinder the market determination of turnover and hence will generate inefficiencies in the labour market

how do the stock prices of new energy and fossil fuel companies correlate evidence from china abstract this study documents the return and volatility spillover effect between the stock prices of chinese new energy and fossil fuel companies using the asymmetric bekk model based on daily samples taken from august 30 2006 to september 11 2012 the dynamics of new energy fossil fuel stock spillover are found to be significant and asymmetric compared with positive news negative news about new energy and fossil fuel stock returns leads to larger return changes in their counter assets news about both new energy and fossil fuel stock returns spills over into variances of their counter assets and the volatility spillovers depend complexly on the respective signs of the return shocks of each asset the empirical results demonstrate that new energy and fossil fuel stocks are generally viewed as competing assets that positive news about new energy stocks could affect the attractiveness of fossil fuel stocks and that new energy stock investment is more speculative and riskier than fossil fuel stock investment these results have potential implications for asset allocation financial risk management and energy policymaking

union membership in the united states 1973 1981 this paper reports estimates of union membership gathered from may current population surveys from 1973 to 1981 the authors present data by occupation industry selected states and smsas race gender and educational attainment the paper both extends and differs from that by freeman and medoff which presents unionism estimates for the private sector for 1968 75 to facilitate longitudinal analysis this paper reports three year moving averages of occupational and industry data and annual estimates of demographic classifications the data include public sector as well as private sector workers and they exclude workers not covered by the national labor relations act also the authors provide only union membership estimates not estimates on workers covered by union contracts this paper suggests that the percentage of all workers that are unionized in the united states remained fairly constant over the 1973 81 period

are costs really sticky and biased evidence from manufacturing listed companies in china abstractrecent studies on cost behaviour have proved that cost increase caused by business expansion is larger than cost decrease caused by business downsizing this cost stickiness behaviour contradicts the traditional theoretic assumption that cost level and business size change in a linear way this article investigates the existence or non existence of cost stickiness using a sample of china s manufacturing listed companies during the period 2010 2014 first our findings show that cost stickiness is a pervasive phenomenon and overestimated in the manufacturing industry second we find that cost stickiness varies greatly across industries and in different regions finally we find that cost stickiness is affected by the economic growth specifically cost stickiness increases with the macroeconomic growth our results from china s manufacturing listed companies provide evidence on asymmetric cost behaviour and contain important implications for both cost accounting research and financial accounting r

the dynamic dependence of fossil energy investor sentiment and renewable energy stock markets abstract this study investigates the dynamic directional information spillover of return and volatility between the fossil energy market investor sentiment towards renewable energy and the renewable energy stock market using the connectedness network approach empirical results show that the spillover effects of the volatility system are generally stronger than that of the return system which suggest that risk transmission among the markets is more obvious in both systems the impact of the fossil energy market especially crude oil on the renewable energy stock market is greater than the impact of investor sentiment on the renewable energy stock market this finding shows that the renewable energy stock market is closely related to the fossil energy market furthermore the rolling window approach is adopted to examine the time varying information spillover among them the dynamic findings suggest that investor sentiment towards renewable energy can explain the return and volatility of renewable energy stock to a certain degree

relationships between oil price shocks and stock market an empirical analysis from china this paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto regression oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most chinese stock market indices except for manufacturing index and some oil companies some important oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index which raise their stock returns both the world oil price shocks and china oil price shocks can explain much more than interest rates for manufacturing index

forecasting government bond yields with large bayesian vector autoregressions abstract we propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates which allows to efficiently extract the information contained in a large panel of yields in particular we use a large bayesian vector autoregression bvar with an optimal amount of shrinkage towards univariate ar models the optimal shrinkage is chosen by maximizing the marginal likelihood of the model focusing on the us we provide an extensive study on the forecasting performance of the proposed model relative to most of the existing alternative specifications while most of the existing evidence focuses on statistical measures of forecast accuracy we also consider alternative measures based on trading schemes and portfolio allocation we extensively check the robustness of our results using different datasets and monte carlo simulations we find that the proposed bvar approach produces competitive forecasts systematically more accurate than random walk forecasts even though the gains are small

do green investments react to oil price shocks implications for sustainable development abstract this study investigates whether green investments are connected to oil price shocks while earlier papers mainly investigate the linkage between clean energy stock and crude oil prices we consider recently introduced environmental indexes consisting of companies that use eco friendly production processes and develop green infrastructures using the markov regime switching regression approach we observe that the effect of crude oil prices on environmental investments appears to be statistically insignificant albeit positive in most of the cases one possible reason behind such a finding is that the oil dependence is limited to the case of eco friendly firms the results further indicate switching between low and high volatility regimes implying that there exist high and low volatility states for green assets given that growing concerns about climate change and energy security would inspire market participants shift towards ethical investments our results could be of interest to investors aiming at decarbonizing their portfolios by including more environmental assets one important finding of our empirical analysis is that green assets are found to be more susceptible to oil market volatility rather than to oil price fluctuations this is a novel finding given that prior literature focusing on the association of oil sectors and green assets mainly consider the information on oil prices rather than oil volatility hence our study aims to conceal an important void in the exiting literature

assessment and optimization of clean energy equity risks and commodity price volatility indexes implications for sustainability abstract although clean energy equities have emerged as a new asset class for market participants especially environmentally concerned investors existing and previous studies pay very little attention to how equity investors in clean energy markets can reduce their downside risk the authors of this paper address this void by considering the roles of the commodity market volatility indexes of crude oil gold and silver the results of the dynamic conditional correlation model show that commodity volatilities and clean energy equity prices move in opposite directions based on the hedging effectiveness each of the three volatility indexes acts as an effective tool for reducing the risk of clean energy equity indexes the implied volatility index of crude oil is the most effective tool followed by that of gold and silver further analysis indicates the robustness of the results to the application of an asymmetric conditional correlation model the findings extend the limited understanding of how to hedge the downside risk of clean energy stock indexes and provide useful implications to market participants on the ability of implied volatility indexes of major commodities to hedge that risk

oil shocks and their impact on energy related stocks in china abstract this paper contributes to the current literature by adopting time varying conditional correlation and asset pricing models to discover how the dynamics of international oil prices affect energy related stock returns in china after conditioning for structural instability the results show a much stronger relation following the 2008 financial crisis we argue that this reflects the fact that investors in the chinese stock market especially for energy related stocks are more sensitive to the shocks in international crude oil market

supplanting the minnesota prior forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors abstract although general equilibrium models are in wide use in the theoretical macroeconomic literature their empirical relevance is uncertain we develop procedures for using dynamic general equilibrium models to aid in analyzing the observed time series relationships among macroeconomic variables our strategy is based on that developed by doan litterman and sims 1984 who constructed a procedure for improving time series forecasts by shrinking vector autoregression coefficient estimates toward a prior view that vector time series are well described as collections of independent random walks in our case the prior is derived from a fully specified general equilibrium model we demonstrate that like the atheoretical random walk priors real business cycle model priors can aid in forecasting

dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion evidence from asian markets we apply a dynamic conditional correlation model to nine asian daily stock return data series from 1990 to 2003 the empirical evidence confirms a contagion effect by analyzing the correlation coefficient series we identify two phases of the asian crisis the first shows an increase in correlation contagion the second shows a continued high correlation herding statistical analysis of the correlation coefficients also finds a shift in variance during the crisis period casting doubt on the benefit of international portfolio diversification evidence shows that international sovereign credit rating agencies play a significant role in shaping the structure of dynamic correlations in the asian markets

self selection via fringe benefits this paper extends the theory of self selection to circumstances in which economic agents have some access to markets we use the analysis to explain the existence of multidimensional compensation packages in the presence of limited re marketability employment contracts that include fringe benefits are prominent examples of such multidimensional packages

coal consumption co2 emission and economic growth in china empirical evidence and policy responses this article investigates the relationship between coal consumption and income in china using both supply side and demand side frameworks cointegration and vector error correction modeling show that there is a unidirectional causality running from coal consumption to output in both the short and long run under the supply side analysis while there is also a unidirectional causality running from income to coal consumption in the short and long run under the demand side analysis the results also reveal that there is bi directional causality between coal consumption and pollutant emission both in the short and long run hence it is very difficult for china to pursue a greenhouse gas abatement policy through reducing coal consumption switching to greener energy sources might be a possible alternative in the long run

the impact of energy prices on clean energy stock prices a multivariate quantile dependence approach abstract we assess the impact of quantile price movements in oil gas coal and electricity on the quantiles of clean energy stock returns using a multivariate vine copula dependence setup for the period 2009 2016 our evidence shows that oil and electricity prices were major contributors to the dynamics of clean energy stock returns in the usa and the eu respectively whereas the other energy prices played a minor role in shaping clean energy stock returns furthermore we find evidence of a symmetric energy price impact so extreme upward and downward energy price movements had a similar impact on clean energy stock returns this evidence has potential implications for risk management decision making by energy investors and for policy maker decisions regarding support for clean energy deployment

are costs really sticky evidence from publicly listed companies in the uae this article measures the degree of adjustment between operating revenues and costs for publicly listed companies in the united arab emirates uae traditional cost models assume that variable costs change proportionally in response to an upward or downward fluctuation in demand however in recent years such an assumption has been questioned by a variety of papers from the economics and accounting fields typically cost stickiness is defined as costs decreasing by less than 1 when sales decrease by 1 while reacting closer to the proportion of change when sales increase this study unlike the vast majority of the literature did not find cost stickiness in the uae after using panel data regression analysis the main explanation is that uae has mostly expatriate labour force that does not have the typical benefits of employment protection legislation epl available in other national jurisdictions epl is a main reason that costs adjustments during decreasing sales is curbed due to the associated co

wavelet based test of co movement and causality between oil and renewable energy stock prices abstract we studied co movement and causality between oil and renewable energy stock prices using continuous and discrete wavelets firstly to obtain information on dynamic correlations over time and for different time scales from wavelet coherence and secondly to obtain information on linear and non linear granger causality in the time frequency domain for general and sectoral renewable energy indices for the period 2006 2015 our findings indicate that dependence between oil and renewable energy returns in the short run was weak but gradually strengthened towards the long run mainly for the period 2008 2012 our causality tests provide evidence against linear causality at higher frequencies and in favour of unidirectional and bidirectional linear causality at lower frequencies in contrast we found consistent evidence of non linear causality running from renewable energy indices to oil prices at different time horizons and mixed evidence of causality running from oil to renewable energy prices these results have potential implications for investors in terms of hedging and for policymakers in terms of policy support decisions regarding the development of renewable energy

green bond and financial markets co movement diversification and price spillover effects abstract we examine co movement between the green bond and financial markets finding that the green bond market couples with corporate and treasury bond markets and weakly co moves with stock and energy commodity markets we also find that green bonds have negligible diversification benefits for investors in corporate and treasury markets whereas diversification benefits are sizeable for investors in stock and energy markets we further confirm that green bonds are affected by substantial price spillovers from corporate and treasury fixed income markets and that large price swings in stock and energy markets have a negligible impact on green bond prices

which renewable energy policy is a venture capitalist s best friend empirical evidence from a survey of international cleantech investors governments around the world have adopted ambitious targets to increase the share of renewable energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions they pursue a variety of policy approaches to achieve these targets it has been a popular theme for contributions in energy policy to investigate the effectiveness of such policies this article adds a new perspective to the debate namely looking at the policy preferences of private investors in innovative clean energy technology firms we surveyed 60 investment professionals from european and north american venture capital and private equity funds and asked them to assess the effectiveness of various policies in terms of stimulating their interest to invest in innovative clean energy technologies in addition to quantitative rankings we use qualitative interview data to capture additional information on why investors prefer some policies over others the combined analysis compensates for the inherent limitations of a quantitative ranking using generic policy types the results of this exploratory analysis demonstrate that all other things being equal investors in our sample perceived feed in tariffs to be the most effective renewable energy policy the overall preference for feed in tariffs is even more pronounced among investors based in europe and with higher exposure to clean energy

oil price uncertainty and clean energy stock returns new evidence from crude oil volatility index abstract earlier studies evidence that oil price shocks have significant impacts on clean energy stock returns while the previous literature uses traditional oil price series to investigate such effects we aim to assess whether the variance of alternative energy stock returns can be explained using the information content of crude oil volatility index ovx an indicator of oil price uncertainty to serve our purpose we employ several measures to frame the realized volatility rv of alternative energy sector equity returns in particular we use three different range based rv estimators recommended by parkinson 1980 rogers and satchell 1991 and alizadeh et al 2002 respectively our findings reveal that clean energy stock market returns are highly sensitive to ovx shocks thus oil market uncertainty measured by ovx embodies a crucial role in modeling the volatility of renewable energy equity returns in addition we find a strong indication that ovx provides additional information beyond what is contained in the historical volatilities of equity returns we also document that the magnitude of the effect of ovx is much bigger than that of the realized variance of wti oil spot prices finally we find that the information content of crude oil volatility index improves the volatility forecasts for the clean energy equity market

time varying co movements between energy market and global financial markets implication for portfolio diversification and hedging strategies abstract this study explores the time patterns of volatility spillovers between energy market and stock prices of seven major global financial markets including clean energy energy information technology corporations equity markets and united states economic policy index over the period vary from december 28 2000 to december 31 2018 we employ a time domain connectedness measures of diebold and yilmaz dy 2009 2012 and 2014 to examine spillover mechanism of volatility shocks across future markets optimal weights and hedge ratios are calculated for portfolio diversification and risk management the main findings of the study conclude that oil shocks are exogenous and contribution of oil market volatility to global financial markets is insignificant the returns of world stock index and world energy index are major transmitters of volatility to clean energy market moreover the impact of energy market become strong in global financial market when data is divided into pre during and post financial crisis periods finally the hedge ratios are volatile over time and their maximum value is observed during the financial crisis period of 2008 09 the optimal portfolio between energy and stock prices are heavily weighted to the stock markets

correlations and volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies abstract in this paper multivariate garch models are used to model conditional correlations and to analyze the volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy companies and technology companies four different multivariate garch models bekk diagonal constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation are compared and contrasted the dynamic conditional correlation model is found to fit the data the best and generates results showing that the stock prices of clean energy companies correlate more highly with technology stock prices than with oil prices on average a 1 long position in clean energy companies can be hedged for 20 cents with a short position in the crude oil futures market

on the use of holdout samples for model selection researchers often hold out data from the estimation of econometric models to use for external validation however the use of holdout samples is suboptimal from a bayesian perspective which prescribes using the entire sample to form posterior model weights this paper examines a possible rationale for the use of holdout samples data inspired modifications of structural models are likely to lead to an exaggeration of model fit the use of holdout samples can in principle set an incentive for the modeler not to exaggerate model fit

matching turnover and unemployment this paper develops the view that workers move into and out of the labor market because of changes in the perceived value of their market opportunities a search model is combined with a matching model to yield movement of workers from job to job and into and out of employment

a model of competitive stock trading volume a model of competitive stock trading is developed in which investors are heterogeneous in their information and private investment opportunities and rationally trade for both informational and noninformational motives i examine the link between the nature of heterogeneity among investors and the behavior of trading volume and its relation to price dynamics it is found that volume is positively correlated with absolute changes in prices and dividends i show that informational trading and noninformational trading lead to different dynamic relations between trading volume and stock returns

do we really need both bekk and dcc a tale of two multivariate garch models the management and monitoring of very large portfolios of financial assets are routine for many individuals and organizations the two most widely used models of conditional covariances and correlations in the class of multivariate garch models are bekk and dynamic conditional correlation dcc it is well known that bekk suffers from the archetypal curse of dimensionality whereas dcc does not it is argued in this paper that this is a misleading interpretation of the suitability of the two models for use in practice the primary purpose of this paper is to analyse the similarities and dissimilarities between bekk and dcc both with and without targeting on the basis of the structural derivation of the models the availability of analytical forms for the sufficient conditions for existence of moments sufficient conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the appropriate estimators and computational tractability for ultra large numbers of financial assets based on theoretical considerations the paper sheds light on how to discriminate between bekk and dcc in practical applications

stock prices of clean energy firms oil and carbon markets a vector autoregressive analysis recent discussions of energy security and climate change have attracted significant attention to clean energy we hypothesize that rising prices of conventional energy and or placement of a price on carbon emissions would encourage investments in clean energy firms the data from three clean energy indices show that oil prices and technology stock prices separately affect the stock prices of clean energy firms however the data fail to demonstrate a significant relationship between carbon prices and the stock prices of the firms

retesting the causality between energy consumption and gdp in china evidence from sectoral and regional analyses using dynamic panel data abstract the increasing attention on energy policy needs has provided a renewed stimulus to research the linkages between energy consumption and economic performance in china this paper examined the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the regional and sectoral aspects by adopting provincial panel data in china from 1995 to 2008 the results indicate that economic growth causes more energy consumption in china not only at the national level but also at the regional and sectoral levels then the eastern region and the industrial sector show results quite similar to that of the whole country in which a bidirectional causality relationship exists between energy consumption and economic growth the implication for energy policies in china is that the eastern region and the industrial sector should play a leading role in the adjustment of energy consumption patterns and the transformation of the economy structure energy prices have limited effects on energy consumption but do have effects on economic growth because the energy price mechanism is more government oriented than market oriented in china

is there dependence and systemic risk between oil and renewable energy stock prices abstract we study systemic risk and dependence between oil and renewable energy markets using copulas to characterize the dependence structure and to compute the conditional value at risk as a measure of systemic risk we found significant time varying average and symmetric tail dependence between oil returns and several global and sectoral renewable energy indices our evidence on systemic risk indicates that oil price dynamics significantly contributes around 30 to downside and upside risk of renewable energy companies these results have important implications for risk management and renewable energy policies

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from china at both aggregated and disaggregated levels using a neo classical aggregate production model where capital labor and energy are treated as separate inputs this paper tests for the existence and direction of causality between output growth and energy use in china at both aggregated total energy and disaggregated levels as coal oil and electricity consumption using the johansen cointegration technique the empirical findings indicate that there exists long run cointegration among output labor capital and energy use in china at both aggregated and all three disaggregated levels then using a vec specification the short run dynamics of the interested variables are tested indicating that there exists granger causality running from electricity and oil consumption to gdp but does not exist granger causality running from coal and total energy consumption to gdp on the other hand short run granger causality exists from gdp to total energy coal and oil consumption but does not exist from gdp to electricity consumption we thus propose policy suggestions to solve the energy and sustainable development dilemma in china as enhancing energy supply security and guaranteeing energy supply especially in the short run to provide adequate electric power supply and set up national strategic oil reserve enhancing energy efficiency to save energy diversifying energy sources energetically exploiting renewable energy and drawing out corresponding policies and measures and finally in the long run transforming development pattern and cut reliance on resource and energy dependent industries

the probability of receiving benefits at different hours of work this study finds that in probit equations 50 of people working 35 hours per week in the us will not be offered benefits or health insurance through their employers to replace services received while on welfare women with an average of 39 hours of work per week have an average 76 probability of being offered medical benefits as one of three example options while men working an average of 43 hours per week have on average a 72 probability of being offered medical benefits the probability of being offered medical insurance life insurance and retirement benefits is slightly over 20 for working 35 hours per week although women have a slightly higher probability of being offered all the benefits individuals with children have a lower probability of being offered all the benefits which is not significant for medical insurance retirement or flexible work schedules individuals working for large firms have a greater probability of being offered benefits excluding flexible scheduling and profit sharing working longer hours increases the probability of receiving benefits except in training situations higher wages are found in the three stage least squares estimation in reduced form equation to be related to more work experience higher aptitude test scores residence in a standard metropolitan statistical area work at larger firms more work hours per week and not being single data are obtained from the 1991 us national longitudinal survey of labor market experience of youth among 1988 persons 26 34 years old who worked and were paid an hourly wage persons in the sample earned an average of 9 00 per hour and worked slightly more than 41 hours per week 33 were black 20 hispanic and slightly under 50 were female about 60 had a child under 6 years old the average firm size was 5205 employees

modeling asymmetric comovements of asset returns existing time varying covariance models usually impose strong restrictions on how past shocks affect the forecasted covariance matrix in this article we compare the restrictions imposed by the four most popular multivariate garch models and introduce a set of robust conditional moment tests to detect misspecification we demonstrate that the choice of a multivariate volatility model can lead to substantially different conclusions in any application that involves forecasting dynamic covariance matrices like estimating the optimal hedge ratio or deriving the risk minimizing portfolio we therefore introduce a general model which nests these four models and their natural asymmetric extensions the new model is applied to study the dynamic relation between large and small firm returns article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the dynamic links between energy consumption economic growth financial development and trade in china fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis abstract this study investigates the relationship between energy use and economic growth by incorporating financial development international trade and capital as important factors of production function in case of china over the period of 1971 2011 the ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration was applied to examine long run relationship among the series while stationarity properties of the variables was tested by applying structural break test our empirical evidence confirmed long run relationship among the variables the results showed that energy use financial development capital exports imports and international trade have positive impact on economic growth the granger causality analysis revealed that unidirectional causal relationship running from energy use to economic growth financial development and energy use granger cause each other there is bidirectional causality between international trade and energy use the feedback relation exists between financial development and international trade there is also bidirectional causality exists between capital and energy demand financial development and economic growth and international trade and economic growth this paper makes significant contribution in energy economics and opens up new direction for policy makers to explore new and alternative sources of energy which would be helpful in meeting the rising demand of energy due to sustained rate of economic growth

stock returns and volatility most asset pricing models postulate a positive relationship between a stock portfolio s expected returns and risk which is often modeled by the variance of the asset price this paper uses garch in mean models to examine the relationship between mean returns on a stock portfolio and its conditional variance or standard deviation after estimating a variety of models from daily and monthly portfolio return data we conclude that any relationship between mean returns and own variance or standard deviation is weak the results suggest that investors consider some other risk measure to be more important than the variance of portfolio returns