separability functional form and regulatory policy in models of interfuel substitution abstract counter intuitive results such as positive own price elasticities have been found in some studies of interfuel substitution this paper examines three possible reasons for this problem first including energy materials in petroleum and coal aggregates is found to contribute to incorrect signs second the mathematical properties of the translog function contribute to concavity violations in contrast the linear logit model of cost shares is found to provide more sensible estimates of own price elasticities across alternative model specifications finally natural gas curtailment policies and environmental regulations are found to be significant factors influencing us industrial fuel demand although omission of these factors does not directly contribute to curvature violations

the translation of corporate governance changes across national cultures the case of germany contrasting systems of corporate governance persist internationally but are subject to regulatory and firm level institutional change such changes may be viewed as organisational innovations often imported from the usa in the face of different national cultures this paper analyses the implications of national culture for the translation of innovations and provides case study illustrations of regulatory and firm level governance changes experienced in germany these illustrations demonstrate that the diffusion of both kinds of change has been subject to substantial translation that is consistent with german national culture

cross border venture capital investments the impact of foreignness on returns against the background of the growing internationalization of venture capital vc investing this is the first global comparison of the returns generated by individual domestic and cross border deals we examine investments worldwide during 1971 2009 and find that cross border investments significantly underperform compared with equivalent domestic investments returns are negatively affected by geographic distances cultural disparities and institutional differences between the home and host countries returns on cross border and domestic deals also decline after the late 1990s international portfolio diversification and the saturation of domestic markets may explain why vc investors make cross border investments despite poor expected returns

consequences of cultural practices for entrepreneurial behaviors although national culture is an important regulator of entrepreneurship there is a dearth of studies that 1 explore the effects of national cultural practices on entrepreneurial behaviors by individuals 2 use appropriate multilevel research designs 3 consider the effects of culture on different entrepreneurial behaviors such as entry and post entry growth aspirations we combined global entrepreneurship monitor gem and global leadership and organizational behavior effectiveness globe data from 42 countries for 2005 2008 to address these gaps using a multilevel design we found societal institutional collectivism practices negatively associated with entrepreneurial entry but positively associated with entrepreneurial growth aspirations uncertainty avoidance practices were negatively associated with entry but not with growth aspirations and performance orientation practices were positively associated with entry our analysis highlights the differential effects of cultural practices on entrepreneurial entry and growth aspirations and demonstrates the value of multilevel techniques in analyzing the effect of culture on entrepreneurship

public transportation demand in a border metropolitan economy empirical research for public transport demand has uncovered numerous interesting commonalities across metropolitan economies this study examines the demand for municipal bus services over time in el paso texas usa el paso is one of the largest metropolitan economies in the usa located directly adjacent to an international boundary with another country this study not only models the demand for municipal bus services as a function of traditional variables such as price income and weather but also includes regressors designed to measure the potential impacts of cross border economic conditions on el paso ridership results from a linear transfer function ltf modelling approach indicate that rider volumes are affected by domestic as well as international economic conditions in this border metropolitan area

response of residential electricity demand to price the effect of measurement error abstract in this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 us states from 1995 to 2007 earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions but has failed to recognize or address two major issues the first is that when fitting dynamic panel models the lagged consumption term in the right hand side of the demand equation is endogenous this has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long run price elasticity of demand the second is that energy price is likely mismeasured to address these issues we estimate a dynamic partial adjustment model using the kiviet corrected least square dummy variables lsdv 1995 and the blundell bond 1998 estimators we find that the long term elasticities produced by the blundell bond system gmm methods are largest and that from the bias corrected lsdv are greater than that from the conventional lsdv from an energy policy point of view the results obtained using the blundell bond estimator where we instrument for price imply that a carbon tax or other price based policy may be effective in discouraging residential electricity consumption and hence curbing greenhouse gas emissions in an electricity system mainly based on coal and gas power plants

optimal bidding in auctions of mixed populations of bidders abstract a mixed population of bidders consists of two asymmetric groups members of the first group are game theoretic players who maximize their expected profit and incorrectly believe that their opponents act similarly the second group of bidders adopts an irrational strategy they either choose their bids randomly following a given probability distribution in a naive form of bidding or follow a decision theoretic approach maximizing their expected profit under the assumption that all other bids are random in a sealed bid private value procurement auction we examine the optimal strategy of a new player who has perfect knowledge of the structure of the mixed bidder population and enters the auction the optimal bid of the new bidder is derived when the cost and mark up follow a uniform distribution in 0 1 the effect of the relative size of the group of game theoretic bidders and the population size on the optimal bid price is established

residential electricity demand in spain new empirical evidence using aggregate data this paper presents an empirical analysis on residential demand for electricity this analysis has been performed using aggregate panel data at the province level for 47 spanish provinces for the period from 2000 to 2008 for this purpose we estimated a log log demand equation for electricity consumption using a dynamic partial adjustment approach this dynamic demand function has been estimated using a two step system gmm estimator proposed by blundell and bond 1998 the purpose of this empirical analysis is to highlight some of the characteristics of spanish residential electricity demand particular attention has been paid to the influence of price income and weather conditions on electricity demand the estimated short and long run own price elasticities are negative as expected but lower than 1 furthermore weather variables have a significant impact on electricity demand

the political economy of regional integration projects at borders where poor and rich meet the role of cross border shopping and community sorting abstract at borders between poor and rich countries huge service price differentials could be exploited to mutual benefit offering better paid job opportunities to the poor as well as better shopping opportunities to the rich however cross border shopping is often limited by the substantial transaction costs of crossing the border moreover countries and regions frequently fail to cut these transaction costs even when they have the opportunity to do so we provide a politico economic analysis of cross border integration projects more specifically we show how the political outcome depends on i intra country mobility ii decision making and housing ownership regimes and iii federal grants and international border regulations our analysis builds on two key characteristics in which individuals differ interregional mobility and intercultural ability

rational expectations information acquisition and competitive bidding most rational expectations market equilibrium models are not models of price formation and naive mechanisms leading to such equilibria can be severely manipulable in this paper a bidding model is developed which has the market like features that bidders act as price takers and that prices convey information higher equilibrium prices convey more favorable information about the quality of the objects being sold than do lower prices bidders can benefit from trading only if they have a transactions motive or if they have access to inside information apart from exceptional cases prices are not fully revealing a two stage model is developed in which bidders may acquire information at a cost before bidding and for which the equilibrium price is fully revealing resolving a well known paradox

what do we learn from the weather the new climate economy literature a rapidly growing body of research applies panel methods to examine how temperature precipitation and windstorms influence economic outcomes these studies focus on changes in weather realizations over time within a given spatial area and demonstrate impacts on agricultural output industrial output labor productivity energy demand health conflict and economic growth among other outcomes by harnessing exogenous variation over time within a given spatial unit these studies help credibly identify i the breadth of channels linking weather and the economy ii heterogeneous treatment effects across different types of locations and iii nonlinear effects of weather variables this paper reviews the new literature with two purposes first we summarize recent work providing a guide to its methodologies datasets and findings second we consider applications of the new literature including insights for the damage function within models that seek to assess the potential economic effects of future climate change jel c51 d72 o13 q51 q54

a seasonal analysis of asian tourist arrivals to australia rapid economic growth in south east and east asia has seen a surge in tourist arrivals from this region to australia in the 1990s prior to the currency crisis in late 1997 the purpose of the paper is to use autoregressive integrated moving average arima models to explain the nonstationary seasonally unadjusted quarterly tourist arrivals from hong kong and singapore to australia from 1975 1 to 1996 4 as the tourist arrivals series display strong seasonal patterns deterministic and stochastic seasonality are examined as possible explanations for variations in the international tourist arrivals series the hylleberg et al journal of econometrics 99 pp 215 38 1990 test for seasonal unit roots is used to examine stochastic seasonality in the various series

emerging strategies in the venture capital industry abstract this article reports a study of the future direction of the venture capital industry by examining the basic strategies and strategic assumptions of a broad sample of venture capital firms there are three main sets of results first the once homogeneous venture capital industry is rapidly dividing into several different strategic groups members of these groups are increasingly distinguishing themselves from other groups on four basic dimensions followed by member firms 1 financial resources equity capital comes from a greater variety of sources five major sources resulting in fundamentally different demands on the mission of the receiving venture capital firm 2 staff resources the way venture capital firms use staff resources particularly regarding investee management assistance is becoming increasingly varied across different groups some firms provide fewer than 2 days per year while others provide up to 450 man days per year per client 3 venture stages while the overall industry retains a primary interest in stage 1 2 and 3 investment specific firms vary considerably in the distribution of investment emphasis across these three stages 4 use of financial resources firms in the industry are becoming increasingly differentiated in the size of minimum investments they make 100 m to 1000 m and in their role as a direct investor versus a broker for institutional funds practicing venture capitalists should make use of this first set of findings in two ways first they may find it useful to compare their firm s orientation along these four strategic dimensions with those of the firm s that comprised this study second they may seek to use these four strategic dimensions as a basis on which they might examine clarify and or redefine the marketing strategy pursued by their firm a second set of results identified three goals and priorities of venture capital firms that have neither changed over time nor across increasingly different strategic groups annualized after tax return on investments of between 25 and 40 remain the most common objective across all firms a 5 to 6 year investment time horizon and a major emphasis on the quality of the management team in evaluating new deals were universal priorities across diverse venture capital firms a third finding in this study was that venture capital firms profess greater certainty about the future direction of the venture capital industry than the direction of their firm the most notable example of this is a strong sense that industry wide rates of return are headed downward yet few senior partners expect their firm to experience this decline practicing venture capitalists may be interested to peruse these results to see what trends are predicted within the venture capital industry by this subsample of that industry second they should consider the finding that industry wide rates of return are headed downward in light of the first two sets of findings to develop their own opinion about the future performance of different strategic groups within the industry it is important to note that the sample of venture capital firms on which this study was based did not include most of the larger older funds some of these funds would be characterized as industry leaders pace setters and innovators the sample provides a solid representation of the broad middle of the venture capital industry and newer entrants into the industry while larger older funds are under represented their impact on future trends and strategies in the industry is captured to some extent in the set of questions about future direction of the venture capital industry finally the emerging strategic groups in the venture capital industry that were identified by this study may be useful information for investors as well as users of venture capital for investors the opportunity to participate in venture capital activity should become more clearly understood and varied basically this study should help investors differentiate the strategic posture of different venture capital firms and funds on four factors rather than simply industry geographic considerations for users of venture capital the results of this study suggest a possibility for multiple options that are both more accessible and more catered to specific needs users of venture capital should find a clearer basis on which to differentiate venture capital firms in terms of venture stage priorities staff utilization orientations sources and uses of financial resources this should make for more informed shopping among different venture capital sources and provide a basis on which to shop for the most compatible firm

political jurisdictions in heterogeneous communities we investigate whether political jurisdictions form in response to the trade off between economies of scale and the costs of a heterogeneous population we consider heterogeneity in income race ethnicity and religion and we test the model using american school districts school attendance areas municipalities and special districts we find strong evidence of a trade off between economies of scale and racial heterogeneity we also find evidence of a trade off between economies of scale and income heterogeneity conversely we find little evidence that ethnic or religious heterogeneity shapes jurisdictions to clarify the direction of causality between heterogeneity and jurisdictions we exploit shocks to racial heterogeneity generated by the two world wars

stochastic trend weather and us corn yield variability regional corn yield models incorporating stochastic trends prices and weather variables are estimated hypothesis tests suggest yield variability has increased because of an increase in error variance and an increase in weather related effects decomposition of the error variance shows much of its increase is due to an increased correlaion between regional yields

revenue equivalence in asymmetric auctions abstract the revenue equivalence theorem is generalized to the case of asymmetric auctions in which each player s valuation is drawn independently from a common support according to his her distribution function

estimating bivariate yield distributions and crop insurance premiums using nonparametric methods modelling crop yield distribution is crucial in crop insurance premium setting the correlation between different crop yields due to rotations or systemic risks requires estimation of joint yield distribution for multiple crops in this article we apply a nonparametric method to estimate bivariate yield distributions using farm level yield data of wheat and corn in shandong province in china then the simulated yields are used to evaluate the expected indemnity of one traditional and one hypothetical crop insurance programme our results reveal that the nonparametric bivariate method is very flexible in shaping the yield probability density functions to estimate local idiosyncrasies and correlation between two crops it is also feasible to simulate the nonparametric yield distributions at a satisfying level of accuracy the simulation results show that the hypothetical two crop insurance contract can be more affordable to farmers than traditional individual crop insurance contracts

here comes the rain again weather and the intertemporal substitution of leisure i revisit the intertemporal labor supply framework using exogenous variations in daily weather to see how time at work varies with rain in my model a rainy day is associated with a lower enjoyment of leisure effectively increasing wages and bringing more hours at work i test the model using data from the american time use survey supplemented with daily weather i find that on rainy days men shift on average 30 minutes from leisure to work computations give a rough estimate of the intertemporal elasticity of labor supply of around 0 01 in line with the rest of the literature

angels and non angels are there differences abstract the market for informal venture capital is an elusive and nearly invisible source of financing for entrepreneurial ventures this market consists of a diverse set of high net worth individuals business angels who invest a portion of their assets in high risk high return entrepreneurial ventures the emerging consensus of the characteristics of the individual investor is that of a well educated middle aged individual with considerable business experience and a substantial net worth these informal investors appear to prefer investing in the early start up stage of the venture and if given a choice prefer that their investments be located close to home one consequence of this consensus is the tendency to assume that the traits of these business angels are as tightly clustered around the norm as are the traits of venture capital funds they are not in terms of their competence in the many areas of venture investing these individual investors range from the successful cashed out entrepreneur on the one hand to individuals with little or no experience with venture investing on the other at the same time little is known about the characteristics of high net worth individuals who never ventured where angels dare to tread or about these non angels propensity to join the fold thus this study seeks to fill the void by examining the characteristics of high net worth individuals regardless of their investment history or their interest in venture investing an analysis of the data reveals three groups of high net worth individuals business angels with experience investing in entrepreneurial ventures interested potential investors with no venture investment history but who express a desire to enter the venture investment market and uninterested potential investors who under no circumstances would consider investing in entrepreneurial ventures as part of their investment strategy business angels and potential investors both the interested and non interested segment share similar views about the economic significance of the entrepreneur and the difficulty in securing the equity capital for development of the venture as the issues move from the general to the specific divergence in investment attitudes takes place among the two groups but this divergence is in terms of magnitude or intensity rather than in contrasting or opposing views of the process the potential investor tends to view investing in entrepreneurial ventures on a smaller scale than the active investor especially in terms of the dollar amount committed to any one investment while the business angel is more interested than the potential investor across all stages of financing the interest for both groups increases as the type of financing progresses from the seed stage to expansion financing in contrast the potential investor is more likely to seek diversification as a motivation for venture investing than their angel counterparts the potential investor pool is segmented into those potential investors who appear willing to take on the role of business angels and those individuals who have no desire to participate in the venture market for the interested group to increase their interest in providing venture capital these potential investors want assistance in monitoring the performance of the venture investment followed by assistance in pricing and structuring both of these resources relate more to the technical aspects of venture investing and indicate that these are the areas where the potential investor is least likely to have expertise other resources such as finding and evaluating the investment opportunity appear to represent less of a stimulus for the potential investor in many respects interested potential investors act like business angels across several dimensions both consider the later stages of the development of the venture as the preferred stage to invest the business angel and interested potential investor prefer investments to be located relatively close to their primary residence and share similar views on the amount of the investment portfolio to allocate to venture investing where the interested potential investor and business angel clearly differ is on the scale of the commitment and the motivation for investing the potential investor will commit a smaller dollar amount to any one venture is more inclined to participate with other investors and is more apt to see venture investing as a diversification strategy than is the seasoned business angel

measuring efficiency in the public sector using nonparametric frontier estimators a study of transit agencies in the usa transit agencies in the usa must provide service under increasing operating constraints using data from 1989 1993 technical efficiency among these firms is estimated and characteristics indicative of differential efficiency in transit agencies are identified this paper verifies the robustness of the second step regression results to the choice of efficiency measure by comparing results of the two step regressions using a pair of non parametric efficiency estimators it is discovered that the structure of government subsidy to this industry negatively affects not just cost efficiency but technical efficiency as well furthermore maintenance appears to be an important component of operational efficiency in this industry

how venture capital firms differ abstract four potential sources of differences between venture capital vc firms were examined venture stage of interest amount of assistance provided by the vc vc firm size and geographic region where located through a questionnaire 149 venture capitalists provided data about their firms about what they look for in evaluating an investment and about how they work with a portfolio company following an investment firms were divided into four groups based on venture stage of interest the earlier the investment stage the greater the interest in potential investments built upon proprietary products product uniqueness and high growth markets late stage investors were more interested in demonstrated market acceptance there were no differences by stage regarding the desired qualities of management however after the investment was made earlier stage investors attached more importance to spending their time evaluating and recruiting managers earlier stage investors sought ventures with higher potential returns a 42 hurdle rate of return for the earliest stage investor versus 33 for the late stage investor late stage investors spent more time evaluating a potential investment however after the investment was made there was little difference in the amount of time spent assisting the portfolio company there were however differences in the significance that vcs attached to particular post investment activities firms were split into three groups based upon the amount of time the vc spent with a portfolio company after an investment was made as lead investor the most active group averaged over 35 hours per month per investment and the least active group averaged less than seven hours the difference in assistance provided was not strongly tied to differences in investment stage of interest there were major differences in the importance the vcs attached to their post investment activities not surprisingly high involvement vcs viewed their activities as more important based upon the amount of capital they managed firms were also split into three groups average fund size varied from 278 to 12 million dollars the larger firms had more professionals and managed more money per professional the large firms provided the least and the medium sized firms the most assistance to portfolio companies large firms also made larger individual investments even though they invested over half their funds in late stage investments whereas smaller firms focused on the earlier stages the large firms were still a major source of early stage financing there were no differences between geographic regions in the proportion of investments where the venture capital firm served as lead investor there were however major regional differences in investment stages of interest also differences were observed between regions that were not a result of differing size and investment stage

what do we learn about consumer demand patterns from micro data the aim of this paper is to assess the importance of using micro level data in the econometric analysis of consumer demand to do this we utilize a time series of repeated cross sections covering some 4 000 households in each of 15 years employing a number of different aggregation procedures we conclude that aggregate data alone are unlikely to produce reliable estimates of structural price and income coefficients however once certain aggregation factors as well as trend and seasonal components are included an aggregate model is not necessarily outperformed across all demand equations in terms of forecasting ability jel d12 c52 c31 the purpose of this paper is to develop a complete consumer demand system based on a time series of individual household data and to use it to measure the biases introduced into the study of consumer de mand behavior when aggregate data are used in place of the appropriate microeco nomic data we assess the suitability of ag gregate data through the impact on income and price elasticities and by evaluating the ability of both micro and aggregate based models to forecast aggregate consumer de mand the biases introduced by the use of aggregate data depend upon the way that household characteristics interact with in come and price effects and on departures of demand systems from linearity we explore the structure of microeconomic demand sys tems and the role of household characteris tics in the behavior of consumer demand both for the light this may shed on the pattern of future demands and for the im plications this behavior has for issues of aggregation consumer demand patterns typically found in micro data sets vary considerably across households with different household characteristics and with different levels of income we model this variability by making intercept and slope parameters in the budget share equations of our demand sys tem depend on household characteristics and by allowing for nonlinear total log expenditure terms in fact in theory consistent demand systems it is total ex penditure rather than disposable income that is allocated across goods we find that this general framework leads to a well specified data coherent demand system which is a quadratic extension of the popu lar almost ideal model of angus s deaton and john muellbauer 1980 the micro level estimates are shown to be sensitive to the treatment of endogeneity of total expen diture and to the specification of interaction terms with household characteristics in ad dition this specification is also shown to possess many attractive features for the evaluation of aggregate models

insurance and rural welfare what can panel data tell us assessing the scope for insurance in rural communities usually requires a structural model of household behaviour under risk one of the few empirical applications of such models is the study by rosenzweig and wolpin 1993 who conclude that indian farmers in the icrisat villages would not benefit from the introduction of formal weather insurance in this article we investigate how models such as theirs can be estimated from panel data on production and assets we show that if assets can take only a limited number of values the coefficients of the model cannot be estimated with reasonable precision we also show that this can affect the conclusion that insurance would not be welfare improving

an empirical study on the rebound effect considering capital costs technological progress is one of the means of reducing energy usage and carbon dioxide co2 emissions however this reduction in turn leads to a reduction in the real cost of energy services per unit which results in an increase in the demand for energy services therefore a reduction in the anticipated co2 emissions caused by a technological improvement might be partially offset in response to the cost reduction previous studies have referred to this effect as the rebound effect a large amount of empirical evidence on the rebound effect exists however most of these studies assume an exogenous improvement in energy efficiency and thus capital costs that may decrease the magnitude of the rebound effect are not taken into account expressly this paper extends the scope of the research conducted by brannlund et al brannlund r ghalwash t nordstrom j 2007 increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect effects on consumption and emissions energy economics 29 1 17 in terms of two aspects i considering capital costs explicitly as additional capital costs and ii adapting an iterating procedure and estimating the rebound effect using japanese household data as a result of our empirical analysis we conclude that the rebound is approximately 27 however we also find that ignoring additional capital costs leads to an increase in the rebound effect in the case of japanese households the magnitude of the rebound effect increases to approximately 115 moreover our simulation study shows that only a one time iteration of brannlund et al brannlund r ghalwash t nordstrom j 2007 increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect effects on consumption and emissions energy economics 29 1 17 may lead to a biased result

the non linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in europe a threshold panel approach this paper investigates the relationship between electricity demand and temperature in the european union we address this issue by means of a panel threshold regression model on 15 european countries over the last two decades our results confirm the non linearity of the link between electricity consumption and temperature found in more limited geographical areas in previous studies by distinguishing between north and south countries we also find that this non linear pattern is more pronounced in the warm countries finally rolling regressions show that the sensitivity of electricity consumption to temperature in summer has increased in the recent period

parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield implications for pricing crop insurance contracts this article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields the premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density these methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the statistical and geography brazilian institute ibge for the period of 1990 through 2002 for soybean corn and wheat in the state of parana in this article we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data

splitting the firm between the entrepreneur and the venture capitalist with the help of stock options abstract the net present value npv rule provides the basic principle underlying the sharing of ownership in a new venture the principle often fails because the entrepreneur and the venture capitalist cannot agree on the potential profitability value of the venture first the venture capitalist may simply have a less optimistic interpretation of the data related to the venture s profit potential we refer to this discrepancy between the expectation of the entrepreneur and that of the venture capitalist as the expectation gap second the venture capitalist knows that for the venture s potential to be realized the entrepreneur manager must devote his full effort to the success of the organization this is not a problem if the entrepreneur owns the entire project once the ownership is shared however especially when the venture capitalists own the majority of the shares the entrepreneur has a financial incentive to apply less than the diligence required to control costs and protect the interests of the outside equity holders this financial incentive arises because any perk including leisure or shirking consumed by the entrepreneur does not have to be shared with the venture capitalist while every dollar saved does this is not solved by the venture capitalist acquiring a larger percentage of the company that will only exacerbate the problem as it decreases the cost to the entrepreneur of each dollar of the company s funds spent for the perk we refer to this as the motivation problem in the article we show how stock options can be used to deal effectively with both problems first stock options are always worth more to the optimist than to the pessimist thus there will be a reverse valuation gap with respect to the stock options we show that by issuing stock options to the entrepreneur it is possible to close the expectation gap to solve the motivation problem the entrepreneur s stake must be increased to the extent where the cost to him of excessive consumption of perks will be as high as the benefit he derives this can be accomplished by taking advantage of two valuation characteristics of stock options first stock options are worth only a fraction of the value of the underlying equity shares thus it is easier for the venture capitalist to give up these rather than the underlying equity shares second the stock options will fluctuate with the venturing firm s value at a higher rate than the entrepreneur s percentage ownership thus by issuing the entrepreneur a combination of equity shares and stock options it is possible to increase significantly the entrepreneur s cost of shirking or excessive consumption of perks under idealized conditions it is possible to design a financing arrangement that eliminates the motivation problem the principles discussed here provide benchmarks that both the entrepreneur and the venture capitalist may wish to bring to the negotiating table in the end there is no substitute for the building of trust between the two to give the venture the maximum chance of success

security design with status concerns abstract this paper provides a status based explanation for convertible securities an entrepreneur with status concerns inducing risk taking decides how to finance the firm and how to dynamically manage it solving analytically for the optimal security we find that it is substantially similar to a convertible security our model can explain why convertible securities are mainly issued by start ups and small firms as we show that their salient characteristics higher volatility and dynamic flexibility accentuate incentives to issue convertible securities we also provide analytical results relevant to quantifying how status concerns affect credit risk an established factor behind security choice

the role of risk taking in singapore abstract this study explores the differences between entrepreneurs and non entrepreneurs in the city state of singapore with regard to the risks involved in the decision to become an entrepreneur the sample is composed of 30 chinese entrepreneurs and 44 singaporean managers and engineers employed by six multinational corporations whether or not entrepreneurs are more risk oriented than managers is not clear from this study but the data from this study demonstrate that entrepreneurs are able to give up job security and take specific kinds of risks related to launching a new venture because they have confidence that they will either succeed or be capable of carrying on a successful career whereas job security is a critical variable that holds non entrepreneurs to the status quo in singapore the potential loss of self respect and self image the fear of failure appears to be a force that drives chinese entrepreneurs in singapore to succeed although the research for this study began from the widely held premise that risk was a psychological attribute the research process revealed that risk is more productively seen as a decision making variable the research in this study like previous studies on entrepreneurs and risk also assumes that choice was the core of risk taking it is doubtful however that individuals have a generalized risk propensity for risk is highly contextual risk is most likely to be seen in specific kinds of entrepreneurial decisions such as the decision to become an entrepreneur the decision to grow a new venture through new product development international market entry or other strategic options and decisions related to control issues risk should be viewed as part of a complex multivariate process and attention needs to be given in the future to the study of risk identification risk assessment formulation of risk strategies and the management of risk risk is an inherent aspect of any opportunity and consequently is the darker side of the heart of entrepreneurship in a chinese entrepreneurial setting these factors and decisions are part of a complex social process

testing functional forms in energy modeling an application of the bayesian approach to u s electricity demand abstract in the estimation of demand functions for energy resources linear log linear translog or aids functional forms are commonly assumed it is frequently debated which is the best functional forms to employ in order to accurately represent the underlying relationships between the consumption of various energy resources and explanatory variables such as energy prices weather variables income and other factors in an example analysis of residential energy demand employing cross sectional household level data we find that the aids model is slightly better than the translog model which is superior to the log linear model and which in turn is better than the linear model this is in sharp contrast to previous findings in this context

the effect of the german and british environmental taxation reforms a simple assessment abstract this article implements a simple econometric approach to assess the effect of the environmental tax reforms introduced in germany and the uk despite the very simple econometric approach adopted in this paper in the case of the energy demand our results do not differ markedly from those obtained from complicated multi sectoral econometric models in the case of the labour demand our results differ from the estimates obtained from econometric models where the employment level is not directly influenced by the energy price on the other hand our results are more similar to those obtained from models where the level of employment is directly influenced by the energy price confirming the findings of bosquet 2000 environmental tax reform does it work a survey of the empirical evidence ecological economics 34 19 32 and oecd 2004 environment and employment an assessment working party on national environmental policy oecd paris we conclude that environmental tax reforms can deliver substantial reductions in energy consumption while having small effects on the level of employment effect which can be positive depending on the size of the reduction in the labour costs and the value of cross price elasticities

crossvergence 10 years on impact and further potential the 1997 jibs paper by ralston holt terpstra and yu was instrumental in anchoring and extending the construct of crossvergence in cross cultural research ten years on the paper has lost none of its relevance and continues to offer important opportunities for further theory development and attendant empirical research scope for further work seems to exist especially in three areas the meaning of crossvergence national culture and economic ideology and processes of change

venture capital in transition a monte carlo simulation of changes in investment patterns abstract this article examines the nature of the investment process which has historically generated high returns for venture capital funds and the impact on fund returns of perceived changes in management practice and the structure of the industry the article outlines some policy implications for fund managers investors and the general management of corporations the authors have investigated the investment process and the changes in the nature of the process through the use of a monte carlo simulation model information gathered from interviews with fund managers and the available published data on venture fund performance including proprietary surveys was used to develop and calibrate the model the model replicates the relatively high average fund returns and distribution of returns for funds through the early 1980s the model simulates a multistaged investment process which draws on a pool of investment opportunities which have a log normal distribution of returns and a low zero average return the model readily permits the exploration of the impact of management and industry practices on fund returns the conditions identified by the authors which led to high rates of return on the part of venture capital funds include 1 1 multistaged investment or commitment of funds on an incremental basis with evaluation of venture performance before commitment of additional fund 2 2 objective evaluation of venture performance with the clear distinguishing of winners from losers 3 3 parlaying funds or having the confidence to commit further funds to ventures identified as winners 4 4 persistence of returns from one round to the next which implies that valuable information is gained from previous rounds of investment in the same venture 5 5 long term holding of investment portfolios for a period sufficient for geometric averaging of compound returns to cause the winners to take over or raise portfolio returns taken together these conditions have permitted venture capital funds to historically realize strong average returns with a few of them realizing extraordinary returns the article also explores the consequences of what some believe is happening in the industry a trend toward holding investments for shorter periods increased competition both for investments and later in the product market arena and a growing lack of loyalty between investors and investees all of these conditions and their indirect consequences were shown by the model to negatively impact the limited partners in the venture capital funds while general partners given the structure of fees and the distribution of investment returns generally realized a reasonable to extraordinary return the article outlines a number of management and investment policy implications for investors and fund managers

the demand for alcohol in the united kingdom using the aids model we show that there exists for the uk a stable long run relationship between expenditure shares on beer cider spirits and wine alcohol prices total alcohol expenditure and a range of non economic variables relating to advertising licensing the employment social class and demographic characteristics of consumers and climate our estimates of key price and income elasticities generally lie between those found from other time series studies which exclude most of these non economic variables and those found from cross section studies which generally include them however the restrictions required for separability homegeneity and symmetry although not those for perfect price aggregation are decisively rejected

the socio cultural environment for entrepreneurship a comparison between east asian and anglo saxon countries this study uses a theory of face to identify predictors of interest in entrepreneurship in six east asian and four anglo saxon countries at the cultural level social status of entrepreneurship and shame from business failure predict interest in entrepreneurship better in east asian than anglo countries at the individual level social status predicts interest in entrepreneurship in the entire sample

can consumer confidence forecast household spending evidence from the european commission business and consumer surveys 1 introductionthe analysis of the impact of consumer attitudes on consumer spending has been an area of sustained interest in the macroeconomics literature this interest in consumer attitudes reflects a popular belief that macroeconomic outcomes depend heavily on consumers expectations of future economic conditions reinforcing this belief is the fact that consumer spending accounts for 60 to 70 of the gross domestic product of highly industrialized countries such as the g 7 during the past few decades a number of single country investigations have attempted to assess the predictive power of consumer confidence in forecasting household spending for example in the united states mishkin 1978 reports that the index of consumer sentiment ics published by the university of michigan possesses good explanatory power for changes in durable goods carroll fuhrer and wilcox 1994 also find that the michigan ics has good predictive capability with regard to household expenditure but that its forecasting power decreases considerably when the index is used along with other macroeconomic variables 1 kwan and cotsomitis 2004 examine the robustness of carroll fuhrer and wilcox s 1994 findings when alternative measures of consumer confidence are used in their prediction equations they report that use of the michigan index of consumer expectations improves on the estimation results of carroll fuhrer and wilcox 1994 bram and ludvigson 1998 and ludvigson 2004 compare the forecasting performance of the michigan ics and the u s conference board s index of consumer confidence icc their findings indicate that the conference board s index provides additional information about future consumer consumption that is not captured by the michigan index however chopin and darrat 2000 utilizing a multivariate causality framework report that the conference board s icc is an unreliable predictor of u s retail sales as regards other studies using non u s data acemoglu and scott 1994 employ granger causality and regression analyses to determine if consumer confidence as measured by the gallup poll in the united kingdom can predict future consumption they find that consumer confidence is a leading indicator of future consumption growth in a subsequent study delorme kamerschen and voeks 2002 examine whether consumer confidence and rational expectations are the same in the united kingdom as they are in the united states they report that the predictive ability of the u k consumer confidence index is greater than that of the united states belessiotis 1996 using french data also reports that the consumer confidence index provides decent explanatory power for future consumer spending in canada kwan and cotsomitis 2005 find that although consumer sentiment is a reliable predictor of consumer expenditures at the national level results obtained using regional data are quite mixed fan and wong 1998 find that unlike the case in the united states or the united kingdom confidence indicators in hong kong have little or no explanatory power in forecasting household spending the existing studies on the ability of consumer confidence to predict household spending have produced mixed results the results vary depending on the sample period chosen the frequency of observations monthly or quarterly and the different survey methodologies employed to gauge consumer attitudes moreover most of these studies confine their attention to single country investigations given the diversity of results it is important to investigate the predictive power of consumer confidence on the basis of comparable time series data for as many countries as possible this paper presents a first formal attempt to study the ability of consumer confidence to forecast household spending within a multicountry framework to this end we use two confidence indices namely the consumer confidence indicator cci and the economic sentiment indicator esi both of which are derived from the european commission business and consumer survey ecbcs

the impact of natural culture and economic ideology on managerial work values a study of the united states russia japan and china this study assesses the impact of economic ideology and national culture on the individual work values of managers in the united states russia japan and china the convergence divergence crossvergence cdc framework was used as theoretical framework for the study while the schwartz value survey svs was used to operationalize over investigation of managerial work values across these four countries the findings largely support the crossvergence prospective while also confirming the role of national culture implications from the findings are drawn for the convergence divergence crossvergence of values as well as for the feasibility of multidomestic or global strategies for a corporate culture

culture and congruence the fit between management practices and national culture the financial performance of european and asian work units of one multinational company is examined as a function of the congruence between management practices and national culture using hofstede s five national culture dimensions and analogous management practices we find that work unit financial performance is higher when management practices in the work unit are congruent with the national culture

weather derivatives structuring and pricing a sustainable agricultural approach in africa abstractthe objective of this article is to calculate the price of weather derivatives for different african countries with payout depending on temperature a new approach for computing degree day contracts is shown and gives another scale to the numerical relevance and practical implementation of the findings with historical data for each country a stochastic process based on continuous time with mean reversion representing the evolution of the temperature is determined focusing on the monte carlo simulation method the price of each contract and the potential implications to solve several aspects of the threatened african economy are presented

auctions with almost homogeneous bidders abstract we prove that around the symmetric case where the values are identically distributed the equilibrium of the first price auction is jointly differentiable with respect to general bidder specific parameters of the value distributions we show that the revenue equivalence between the first price and the second price auctions to the first order in the size of the parameters is an immediate consequence of this differentiability and the revenue equivalence theorem thereby formally establishing the first order equivalence fibich et al g fibich a gavious a sela revenue equivalence in asymmetric auctions j econ theory 115 2004 309 321 noticed for their particular perturbation

attachment to home and efficient purchases of population in a fiscal externality economy abstract this paper examines the efficiency properties of an economy characterized by strategically competing regions and individuals with varying degrees of attachment to home in an otherwise standard fiscal externality setting regional authorities may make interregional transfers in purchasing preferred populations however there is a range of distributions of resources over which neither region makes transfers nevertheless all equilibrium allocations resulting from the nash behavior of regional authorities including those that involve no transfers are efficient therefore in contrast to the standard conclusions of the fiscal externality literature there is no efficiency role for a central authority

management of climate risks in agriculture will weather derivatives permeate it is a matter of common knowledge that weather represents the major source of uncertainty in crop production it is to be expected that weather fluctuations will increase in the future due to climate change traditionally farmers tried to protect themselves against weather related yield variations by buying insurances more recently there has been a discussion regarding the use of weather derivatives to safeguard against volumetric risks although weather derivatives display advantages over traditional insurances there is only a relatively small market for these products in agriculture this is partly attributed to the fact that it is unclear whether and to what extent weather derivatives are a useful instrument of risk management in agriculture this study applies real yield and weather data from northeast germany in order to quantify the risk reducing effect that can be achieved in wheat production by using precipitation options to do so stochastic simulation is used the hedging effectiveness is c

jeux sans frontieres tax competition and tax coordination when countries differ in size closer international integration is putting increasing pressure on existing national tax structures this paper uses a simple two country model to address a range of consequent policy concerns focusing particularly on the role of country size differences in size exacerbate the inefficiency from noncooperative behavior harming both countries the smaller country loses from harmonization to any tax rate between those set in the noncooperative equilibrium but both countries gain from the imposition of a minimum tax anywhere in that range the fully optimal response to freer cross border trade however may be to do nothing jel h20 h77

the political geography of tax h e avens and tax hells worldwide many governments rely on personal income taxation as one of their major sources of tax revenue casual empirical evidence suggests that although most developed countries levy substantial taxes particularly on higher incomes there also exist a few countries that are characterized by no or very low income taxation a distinguishing feature of the countries in the latter group is that they are geographically very small as can be seen from table 1 which presents international income tax policies and geographical dimensions of some selected countries in the present paper we investigate whether the geography of a country is related to its pattern of taxation central to our argument is the ongoing international integration in the last decades in some cases e g in the european union the process has advanced to the point at which all formal constraints to mobility have been abandoned this development has also greatly improved the mobility of households across states or national borders in contrast to the mobility of production factors however the effects of household mobility migration are not confined to budgetary consequences as taxpayers immigrate or emigrate the inand outflow of citizens also alters policy objectives by changing the composition of the electorate in a jurisdiction at the same time migration decisions especially those of wealthy individuals are based on local tax policies consequently the migration of households determines fiscal policies through the interplay of two basic effects 1 residential choices determine tax rates through a process in which a jurisdiction s inhabitants select their local policies and 2 tax and welfare policies in each jurisdiction influence residential decisions as we argue in this paper this interdependency of residential and political decisions may provide an explanation for the stylized facts illustrated in table 1 we consider a simple framework in which households differ in incomes and national tax policies are democratically determined as a natural implication of their earning characteristics high income households ceteris paribus prefer to live in countries with low taxation for ease of exposition we refer to those countries as tax h e avens in a slight perturbation of popular nomenclature low income households in contrast are more interested in generous public spending than in low income tax rates ceteris paribus they prefer to reside in countries with large welfare programs financed by substantial taxation which we call tax hells for obvious reasons thus individual preferences imply a self selection process which leads to the segregation of households across countries according to income classes 1 if this segregation is in turn supported by a national vote for low taxes in countries where high income earners live and high taxes in countries where lower income earners live an equilibrium with tax heavens populated by wealthy residents and tax hells populated by the less affluent evolves yet the geographical size of countries plays a crucial role in this development first it affects the number of a country s inhabitants the population size because households sort hansen apax partners company possartstr 11 81679 miinchen germany kessler department of economics university of bonn adenauerallee 24 42 53113 bonn germany kessler wipol uni bonn de we thank two anonymous referees marcus berliant dennis epple christian ewerhart gerhard glomm david pines urs schweizer and participants in presentations at the university of munich the 1997 site meeting stanford the 1997 american econometric society summer meeting pasadena and the 1996 iipf congress tel aviv for helpful suggestions and discussions both authors gratefully acknowledge financial support by the deutsche forschungsgemeinschaft sfb 303 at the university of bonn remaining errors are our own the views expressed in this paper should not be attributed to apax partners company 1 the sorting of individuals by preferences across jurisdictions goes back to the famous contribution of charles m tiebout 1956 on migration as a means to reveal preferences over public goods

the economics of small business finance the roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle abstract this article examines the economics of financing small business in private equity and debt markets firms are viewed through a financial growth cycle paradigm in which different capital structures are optimal at different points in the cycle we show the sources of small business finance and how capital structure varies with firm size and age the interconnectedness of small firm finance is discussed along with the impact of the macroeconomic environment we also analyze a number of research and policy issues review the literature and suggest topics for future research

is ecommerce boundary less effects of individualism collectivism and uncertainty avoidance on internet shopping from publicly available data we identified two national culture dimensions individualism collectivism and uncertainty avoidance and their interaction that influences internet shopping rates across a wide spectrum of countries together these factors accounted for 14 of the explained variance on top of the combined variance of 63 explained by national income level educational level economic growth rate unemployment rate and crime rate in predicting internet shopping rates for countries lower in uncertainty avoidance individualist cultures show higher internet shopping rates than do collectivist cultures implications for national and internet firm level web design strategies are discussed

purchasing power parity for developing and developed countries what can we learn from non stationary panel data models the aim of this paper is to apply recently developed panel cointegration techniques proposed by pedroni 1999 2004 and generalized by banerjee and carrion i silvestre 2006 to examine the robustness of the ppp concept for a sample of 80 developed and developing countries we find that strong ppp is verified for oecd countries and weak ppp for mena countries however in african asian latin american and central and eastern european countries ppp does not seem relevant to characterize the long run behavior of the real exchange rate further investigations indicate that the nature of the exchange rate regime doesn t condition the validity of ppp which is more easily accepted in countries with high than low inflation

numerical analysis of asymmetric first price auctions abstract we propose numerical algorithms for solving first price auction problems where bidders draw independent valuations from heterogeneous distributions the heterogeneity analyzed in this work is what might naturally emerge when subsets of distributionally homogeneous bidders collude bid functions and expected revenues are calculated for two special cases extensions to more general asymmetric first price auctions are discussed journal of economic literature classification numbers d44 c63 c72 d82

fostering corporate entrepreneurship cross cultural comparisons of the importance of individualism versus collectivism this study reports on results of a cross cultural empirical investigation designed to assess the impact of individualism collectivism upon organizational entrepreneurship the findings indicate individualism collectivism is an important factor in understanding entrepreneurial behavior in the firm implications of these findings are discussed

the effect of customer satisfaction on consumer spending growth abstract predicting aggregate consumer spending is vitally important to marketing planning yet traditional economic theory holds that predicting changes in aggregate consumer spending is not possible previous attempts to predict consumer spending growth using standard macroeconomic predictor variables have met with little success the authors show that the lagged change in customer satisfaction which contributes to future demand has a significant impact on spending growth however this impact is moderated by increases in consumers debt service ratio a key budget constraint that affects consumers ability to spend using an asymmetric growth model more than 23 of the variation in the one quarter ahead spending growth is explained which represents a notable improvement over prior specifications

bargaining size and return in venture capital funds abstract the terms of an investment by venture capitalists are the result of cooperative bargaining between the project originators owners or entrepreneurs and the financiers this study examines conditions under which bargains can be consummated the nature of the bargains and the way in which bargains are both influenced by venture fund size and also contribute to a theory of fund size as much as possible the theory of fund size and earnings is related to required rate of return concepts with the objective of explaining relative variations in the value of venture capital funds and of incorporating such investments within the general body of finance theory the most basic form of contract is a simple bilateral bargain between owners and fund managers with the shares of financing and earnings as the bargaining variables agency and other considerations can be factored into the resulting project value to be financed and partitioned an edgeworth box construction is used to establish the efficient pareto optimal set as the contract curve the two endpoints of the contract curve correspond respectively to the monopoly solution where there is one fund and many owners and to the competitive solution the nash bargaining solution of game theory can also be exhibited within this framework although we are careful to remain agnostic about whether or not this constitutes the only or even the best solution a first requirement is that some basis for agreement exists so that mutually beneficial bargains can actually be struck conditions most favorable to existence arise where 1 owners who cannot properly diversify their own investments are more risk averse or else suffer from some other financing impediment or 2 owners are more optimistic than fund managers on the prospects for the project fund size operating via the cost of capital can also affect the existence of solutions given that contracting is mutually beneficial the precise terms depend upon the relative bargaining power of funds versus owners this may depend upon required rates of return it also depends upon market structure the environment may be more conducive to monopoly surplus if search impediments exist for owners as they might for technological projects or if the market is in an early stage of development bargains are often asymmetric wherein the fund derives a higher share of earnings than pro rata with its share of financing fund size and bargaining power are related especially where fund investors or managers rely on the fund for portfolio or internal diversification as opposed to external diversification in which they invest extensively in other assets with internal diversification the fund s cost of capital is size dependent in terms of the number of projects on the books larger funds acquire bargaining power via a lower cost of capital leading to higher rates of actual returns and therefore higher fund value such effects are not present where investors have external diversification because fund returns are generally asymmetric arising from the significant risk of project failures it is sometimes thought that the asymmetry constitutes a factor to be priced as the asymmetry is size dependent this would make the cost of capital size dependent as well however it turns out that the asymmetry is not in fact priced and that standard capm arguments continue to hold thus for external diversification fund size is mainly a matter of economies of scale in administration evaluation and monitoring in all cases fund size can be described in terms of equality at the margin between required and available rates of return and we describe the influences that impinge on both schedules generally speaking the kinds of bargains actually observed as well as the rates of return and variations therein across funds and over time are all consistent with predicted bargaining features they appear also to be consistent with basic finance theory suggesting that special features such as failure to maximize the expected utility of monetary returns are not really needed

a simple model of commodity taxation and cross border shopping this paper sets up a simple model in which two countries differing in geographical extent engage in commodity tax competition originating in opportunities for cross border shopping the non cooperative tax equilibrium and various coordination initiatives are examined in the benchmark model and in two model extensions incorporating i costs of transportation for goods and ii border inspection among the more surprising results are the following with i pure profits accrue to sellers near the border but subjecting them to tax may lower the country s total tax revenue with ii the volume of cross border shopping may well increase jel classification h20 h87 h26

cultural influences on national rates of innovation abstract the purpose of this research was to examine the effect of the cultural values of individualism power distance uncertainty avoidance and masculinity on national rates of innovation in 33 countries in 1975 and 1980 the study found that rates of innovation are most closely associated with the cultural value of uncertainty acceptance but that lack of power distance and individualism also are related to high rates of innovation this research suggests that nations may differ in their rates of innovation because of the cultural values of their citizens these findings have important implications for managers and policy makers first culture matters countries may not be able to increase their rates of innovation simply by increasing the amount of money spent on research and development or industrial infrastructure they also may need to change the values of their citizens to those that encourage innovative activity this concept in turn suggests that national rates of innovation are driven by more fundamental forces than economic conditions and that societal change may be necessary to make less innovative societies more innovative second the values associated with high national rates of innovation are those that many scholars have long argued are important at the firm level an acceptance of uncertainty appears to be necessary probably because innovation requires a tolerance for risk and change individualism seems to be important perhaps because of its association with autonomy independence and freedom lack of power distance appears important perhaps reflecting the role that tolerance of change in the social order and distribution of power play in the innovation process third the study indicates that the strength of the relationship between innovation and two cultural values individualism and lack of power distance were stronger in 1975 than in 1980 suggesting perhaps that these values are becoming less important in spurring the innovation process this finding supports the anecdotal evidence that many collectivist and hierarchical asian nations are becoming more innovative fourth this study shows that per capita income is a more important economic variable than industrial structure in determining national rates of innovation this finding confirms previous work that has shown that as nations become wealthier they become more innovative the reason may be that wealthier countries have more demand for innovations both because innovations are often laborsaving and because wealthier nations have greater demand for new and differentiated consumer goods

college football attendance a panel study of the football bowl subdivision panel data with an instrumented real ticket price are used to estimate a regular season game day attendance and per cent of capacity regression equations better team performance whether short term season wins intermediate term bowls games in last 10 years or long term lifetime winning percentage higher undergraduate enrolment traditional rivalries and video coverage increase per cent of capacity used poor weather more rain or cloud cover higher travel costs and larger local population decrease it fan interest wanes as a season progresses but this is offset as a team wins more games games played near a national football league stadium those with conference opponents non fbs opponents and non bcs opponents have lower stadium utilization the substantive results of the analysis do not change when attendance is used as the dependent variable rather than per cent of capacity

cross border shopping from small to large countries abstract contrary to predictions of theoretical models there are many examples in the real world of cross border shopping from small to large countries we demonstrate that a sufficient wedge between marginal costs of public funds in small and large countries can explain this phenomenon

estimating sensitivities of temperature based weather derivatives pricing of temperature based weather derivatives has been studied in the literature however there is no analysis of the estimation of the sensitivities of weather derivatives in a stochastic model of temperatures we use pathwise derivative and kernel methods to derive monte carlo estimators for the sensitivity greeks of temperature based weather derivatives these sensitivities can be used by investors for choosing the most suitable weather contracts for partial hedging or speculation temperature data from new york atlanta and chicago are used in the discussion of numerical results

asymptotic revenue equivalence of asymmetric auctions with interdependent values we prove an asymptotic revenue equivalence among weakly asymmetric auctions with interdependent values in which bidders have either asymmetric utility functions or asymmetric distributions of signals

regional variations in us consumer response to price changes in home heating fuels the northeast and the south 1987 regional variations in us consumer response to price changes in home heating fuels the northeast and the south applied economics vol 19 no 9 pp 1261 1268

estimates of price elasticity of demand for urban freeway use with high frequency control variables the case of santiago chile estimates are presented of toll and fuel price elasticities of demand for urban freeway use in santiago chile high frequency toll and vehicle data were collected from four urban freeways for different route segments and times of day estimation was performed using log linear regression models whose explanatory variables were tolls fuel prices city traffic levels and sets of dichotomous variables to control for daily weekly and monthly seasonality city traffic is a high frequency control of the activity level of the city the elasticities to changes in tolls and fuel were all low in absolute value the toll elasticities were below 0 05 for two freeways and 0 16 for the third while for the fourth which had more alternative routes it was 0 47 the fuel price elasticities were also heterogeneous with values of approximately 0 45 for two freeways and 0 21 for the third whereas for the fourth which had the fewest alternatives it was 0 07

functional form and aggregate energy demand elasticities a nonparametric panel approach for 17 oecd countries this paper studies whether the commonly used linear parametric model for estimating aggregate energy demand is the correct functional specification for the data generating process parametric and n

interjurisdictional sorting and majority rule an empirical analysis the goal of this paper is to provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of majority rule and tiebout sorting within a system of local jurisdictions the idea behind the estimation procedure is to investigate whether observed levels of public expenditures satisfy necessary conditions implied by majority rule in a general equilibrium model of residential choice the estimator controls for observed and unobserved heterogeneity among households observed and unobserved characteristics of communities and the potential endogeneity of prices and expenditures as well as the self selection of households into communities of their choice we estimate the structural parameters of the model using data from the boston metropolitan area the empirical findings reject myopic voting models more sophisticated voting models based on utility taking provide a potential explanation of the main empirical regularities

modeling energy demand some emerging issues abstract the proliferation of papers on energy demand modeling has offered different dimensions both in terms of methodology and estimation while this development has strengthened our understanding of the subject it may render the identification of gaps in the literature arduous for future research thus this study sets out to document some emerging issues that seem to have engendered new directions on energy demand modeling ranging from asymmetric price responses time varying demand parameters triangulation analyses to seasonal and climate change effects it is hoped that access to this review complemented with the previous ones will facilitate the comprehension of the extant literature as well as areas of future research in energy demand modeling

agricultural disaster payments in the southeastern us do weather and climate variability matter governments around the world are forced to react to disasters caused by weather the agricultural sector is particularly susceptible to weather extremes and adverse climate conditions in the us agricultural disaster payments account for a significant part of total agricultural subsidies the payments and their distribution are more important in the areas most affected by disastrous weather events usually coinciding with areas of pronounced impact of the el nino southern oscillation enso in this article the impact of weather and climate as well as some economic variables on disaster payments is analysed using county level data from four states in the southeastern united states the results suggest that weather and climate variables explain most of the crop disaster payments at the county level while socioeconomic variables do not suggesting that advancements in weather and climate forecasts could be helpful in planning for disaster compensation

modeling and analysis of an auction based logistics market we consider a logistics spot market where the transportation orders from a number of firms are matched with two types of carriers through a reverse auction in the spot market local carriers compete with in transit carriers that have lower costs in order to analyze the effects of implementing a logistics spot market on these three parties firms local carriers and in transit carriers and also the effects of various system parameters we develop a two stage stochastic model we first model the auction in a static setting and determine the expected auction price based on the number of carriers engaging in the auction and their cost distributions we then develop a continuous time markov chain model to evaluate the performance of the system in a dynamic setting with random arrivals and possible abandonment of orders and carriers by combining these two models we evaluate the performance measures such as the expected auction price price paid to the carriers distribution of orders between local and in transit carriers and expected number of carriers and orders waiting at the logistics center in the long run we present analytical and computational results related to the performance of the system and discuss operation of such a logistics spot market in turkey

specialization versus diversification as a venture capital investment strategy abstract much important work has informed us of rates of return earned by venture capitalists the importance of venture capitalists to the going public process and the criteria venture capitalists use to evaluate deals this paper seeks to add to the literature by testing hypotheses based upon both the finance and strategic management literature regarding certain venture capitalist investment practices venture capitalists seek to control or manage risk driscoll 1974 macmillan siegel and subbanarasimha 1985 financing structure and investment strategy provide several means for venture capitalists to do this tools available to the venture capitalist include portfolio diversification to spread risk across different industries firms or hot cold ipo markets to minimize unsystematic or investment specific risk information sharing networking and specialization can also be used to control unsystematic risk several hypotheses are developed from these conflicting perspectives data used to test the hypotheses are derived from responses to a survey of venture capitalists three hundred surveys were mailed to venture capitalists 98 or 32 7 returned usable responses portfolio diversification is a well known means to control risk exposure by reducing unsystematic or specific risks however bygrave 1987 1988 as well as financial intermediation theorists argues that maintaining a high degree of specialization is useful for controlling risk as well as for gaining access to networks information and deal flow from other venture investors the analyses of this paper build upon bygrave s work we construct more rigorous tests to resolve the conflict between the diversification and information sharing hypotheses our hypothesis tests were usually resolved in favor of the information sharing view for example venture capitalists in the sample that were heavily involved in seed round financing were diversified across fewer numbers of firms and industries further evidence in favor of information sharing is seen in investment patterns across different financing stages diversification would imply maintaining a portfolio of investments across the different investment stages the information sharing specialization view would argue that it is best to stay focused on a single stage or several connected stages the empirical evidence from the sample once again favors the specialization perspective this research provides information of use to venture capitalists as they seek information on how best to control risk to entrepreneurs as they learn of the factors venture capitalists consider in determining their investment strategy and to academicians as such studies provide insight to general industry practice and thus help to form the basis of classroom discussion and future research endeavors

the contribution of weather variability to economic sectors every day people make economic decisions based on the weather affecting sales of companies in a wide range of economic sectors in many cases the impact of weather on sales is not constant from

state and local tax competition in a spatial model with sales taxes and residential property taxes abstract this paper presents a theoretical model with a uniformly populated line that is divided into local jurisdictions and or states if one level of government imposes sales and residential property taxes and if the spatial extent of each taxing jurisdiction is positive and finite then in nash equilibrium the sales tax rate is less than residential property tax rate housing consumption is suboptimal and the public good is underprovided in each jurisdiction if a very large state or country is divided into local jurisdictions and if both levels of government choose tax rates endogenously then under some assumptions there is an efficient outcome

attendance and promotions in minor league baseball the carolina league this empirical study investigates determinants of attendance at minor league baseball games in the carolina league in 2006 the focus of the analysis is on the effect of a wide variety of game day promotions on attendance on a game by game basis rather than aggregate attendance during the season the ordinary least square ols results imply that attendance is positively a function of per capita income in the city or county hosting the team runs scored by the home team friday and saturday games and promotions that provide cost reduced food or beverages low and high value merchandise and post game fireworks attendance is negatively a function of home team errors monday games and possibly rainy conditions during the game an unusual finding with respect to minor league baseball is that team performance variables affect attendance however home team runs scored and home team errors contribute to the overall entertainment experience for the home team fans and thus yield plausible effects on attendance

habit seasonality and time aggregation in consumer behaviour habitual behaviour in consumer demand analysis is generally portrayed via some form of a lagged dependent variable model the purpose of this paper is to explore the implications for habit behaviour of time aggregation this is done by specifying both habit and seasonal components in demand relations the results indicate that much of what has traditionally been identified as habitual behaviour is in fact seasonal effects

social capital and loan repayment performance in northern vietnam this study analyses the effects of social capital on the loan repayment behavior of borrowers in vietnam in the context of agricultural economics an innovative data collection approach is used that originates from the field of sociology a personal network survey is carried out to measure the individual social capital of borrowers social capital variables are defined according to tie strength bonding bridging and social distance linking between the respondent and his her network member social capital has a significant and positive influence on the rescheduling of loans however we find no significant evidence for an effect of social capital on late payment of principal or interest

some hypotheses about risk in venture capital investing abstract venture capital investing differs in important respects from investment decisions involving the securities of fortune 500 companies or decisions to purchase established companies which are generally made in accord with widely recognized financial models investing in new ventures involves a high level of uncertainty as well as a high risk of failure venture capital investing is characterized by high variability in the outcomes of new ventures and in the performance of venture capital portfolios venture capital investing decisions are complicated by a general lack of quantifiable financial and market data for early stage ventures and investment decisions remain hostage to unanticipated competitors market shifts and financial cycles some observers have suggested that venture capital investment decisions are primarily subjective assessments while the question of risk in venture capital investing has been addressed on an ad hoc basis in several empirical studies there has been little effort to develop a theoretical framework of risk perceptions and risk reduction strategies despite differences in investor experience investment preferences and tolerance for risk venture capital managers share many common perceptions of the risks involved in investing in new ventures and the distribution of those risks over the venture capital funded phase of development venture capital managers also utilize many common behaviors and strategies in adapting to these risks these perceptions and reactions to risk in investing and strategies for controlling risk can in theory be used to construct a behavioral framework that can predict how venture capital managers will behave in choosing between various investment opportunities in order to minimize risk and to maximize potential returns in an attempt to begin to identify various elements of such a behavioral framework of venture capital reactions to risk the authors have drawn upon psychological risk theory of decision making under uncertainty including classic expected utility theory later modifications to that theory by kahneman and tversky 1979 and coombs and huang s 1970 portfolio approach to risk that are applicable to venture capital investing these expected behaviors to risk have been used in conjunction with empirical studies of venture capital investment and portfolio outcomes distributions of investments within portfolios and venture capitalist perceptions of risk to propose nine hypotheses about how venture capital managers behave in making investment decisions these hypotheses include differences in variation and magnitude of returns for early stage versus later stage ventures explanations of how risk distributions change over the stagewise development of new ventures differences in the behavior of aggressive versus conservative investors in screening investment prospects and strategies utilizing a lower ideal level of risk to reduce the chances of achieving negative or sub normal final portfolio returns

policy implications of considering pre commitments in u s aggregate energy demand system abstract linear approximations of the generalized almost ideal demand system and almost ideal demand system for u s energy are compared to contrast the explicit inclusion and exclusion of pre committed consumption levels results indicate that pre commitment levels the quantity of a good that is consumed in the short run with little regard for price helps to better explain energy demand in the u s compared to the system that does not explicitly consider pre commitments policy implications are if pre commitments are a legitimate assumption larger price changes are necessary to achieve a given policy objective than if there are no pre commitments

a venture capital model of the development process for new ventures abstract for years researchers have hypothesized that new ventures develop in a fairly predictable chronological process by evolving through various functional and strategic developmental stages however cross comparable longitudinal data from large numbers of ventures are still not available to validate these stages of development hypotheses the study sought to determine whether venture capital firms which have extensive experience with the longitudinal development of new ventures operate in accord with a common theory about how this process operates these findings also represent a first step toward empirically validating various elements of stages of development theories the study analyzed the perceptions of the ceo or managing partner of 73 u s venture capital firms about key features of the development process for new businesses venture capital firms were asked whether they differentiated stages in the development process for each such stage information was elicited on what the stage was called distinguishing characteristics of ventures in that stage key developmental goals or benchmarks typically accomplished in that stage and the major risks involved sufficient consensus was found on these aspects of the development process for a venture capital model of this process to be constructed the model consists of five sequential stages 1 seed 2 start up 3 second stage 4 third stage and 5 exit stage strong consensus was found on distinguishing characteristics of ventures in early stages of development key developmental goals or benchmarks in various stages and major developmental risks associated with each stage consensus on developmental characteristics diminished somewhat in later stages presumably because of differential rates of development among investees as well as differing degrees of success in accomplishing earlier objectives nevertheless sufficient differences in functional characteristics remained to clearly distinguish later stage investees from early stage investees and to enable differentiations in maturity between third stage and exit stage investees the venture capital developmental model exhibits both similarities and differences from stages of development paradigms first the venture capital model is primarily strategic and market oriented in focus it gives lesser emphasis to the elements of organizational structure management style and management specialization than some stages of development theories although these elements are identified by venture capitalists as potential areas of risk should problems arise second like stages of development paradigms the venture capital model is universal and not venture specific venture capital firms appear to view all potentially feasible business concepts despite differences in product organizational complexity rate of development or ultimate size as passing through the same process sequence albeit at different speeds and with varying degrees of success third the model while reflecting the financial objectives of venture capital investors is primarily shaped by the naturally occurring functional development of investees it does not represent arbitrary requirements imposed on investees to segment the developmental process into steps that would not otherwise occur the development of venture capital investees is influenced by the strategic and financial objectives of venture capital firms thus the model does not necessarily mirror the strategic and dynamic elements of the development process for firms that are not intended by their founders to grow rapidly and then go public or be acquired by a larger corporation or for ventures that must depend upon internally generated funds or bank loans to finance development the venture capital model representing perceptions of 73 venture capital firms derived from longitudinal data for many hundreds of new ventures appears to empirically confirm the concept of an evolutionary progression through key functional and strategic steps which is a central element of most stages of development hypotheses the study did not go into sufficient depth however to provide detail on the influence of factors such as organizational structure and management styles and control systems on development these factors are central elements in several stages of development theories and are arguably of critical importance in the growth survival and financial success of new ventures

impact of the dedicated infrastructure on bus service quality an empirical analysis abstractan econometric analysis is conducted to quantify the impact of different variables on the service quality of the santiago chile bus system the indicators tested as measures of service qua

face and favor the chinese power game western research on interpersonal behavior patterns and rules of exchange needs to move beyond the assumption of isolated individuals socialized to make rational decisions on the basis of self inte

auctions versus negotiations which is the more profitable way to sell a company an auction with no reserve price or an optimally structured negotiation with one less bidder we show under reasonable assumptions that the auction is always preferable when bidders signals are independent for affiliated signals the result holds under certain restrictions on the seller s choice of negotiating mechanism the result suggests that the value of negotiating skill is small relative to the value of additional competition the paper also shows how the analogies between monopoly theory and auction theory can help derive new results in auction theory jel d44 g34 there are close analogies between standard price theory and the theory of auctions in an absolute english auction in which the price rises continuously until only one bidder remains and the seller is required to accept the final bid the sale price equals the lowest competitive price at which supply equals demand in the theory of optimal auctions the seller is treated as a monopolist who can choose any

tiebout and redistribution in a model of residential and political choice abstract the paper considers a two community model with freely mobile individuals individuals differ not only in their incomes but also in their tastes for a local public good in each jurisdiction the amount of public services is determined by majority vote of the inhabitants and local spending is financed by a residence based linear income tax when making their residential and political choices individuals thus face a trade off between the provisionary and redistributive effects of policies we analyze this trade off and show that tiebout like sorting equilibria often exist if the spread in tastes among individuals is very large an almost perfect sorting according to preferences emerges otherwise a partial sorting prevails and stratification into rich and poor communities is more pronounced importantly we demonstrate that all these sorting equilibria exist whether or not individuals are allowed to relocate after voting