Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #147870. 	[Title] Annealed Competition of Experts for a Segmentation and Classification of Switching Dynamics [Abstract] We present a method for the unsupervised segmentation of data streams originating from different unknown sources which alternate in time. We use an architecture consisting of competing neural networks. Memory is included in order to resolve ambiguities of input-output relations. In order to obtain maximal specialization, the competition is adiabatically increased during training. Our method achieves almost perfect identification and segmentation in the case of switching chaotic dynamics where input manifolds overlap and input-output relations are ambiguous. Only a small dataset is needed for the training proceedure. Applications to time series from complex systems demonstrate the potential relevance of our approach for time series analysis and short-term prediction. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1118848. 	[Title] A Sparse Representation for Function Approximation [Abstract] We derive a new general representation for a function as a linear combination of local correlation kernels at optimal sparse locations (and scales) and characterize its relation to PCA, regularization, sparsity principles and Support Vector Machines. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #675649. 	[Title] Modeling Volatility using State Space Models [Abstract] In time series problems, noise can be divided into two categories: dynamic noise which drives the process, and observational noise which is added in the measurement process, but does not influence future values of the system. In this framework, empirical volatilities (the squared relative returns of prices) exhibit a significant amount of observational noise. To model and predict their time evolution adequately, we estimate state space models that explicitly include observational noise. We obtain relaxation times for shocks in the logarithm of volatility ranging from three weeks (for foreign exchange) to three to five months (for stock indices). In most cases, a two-dimensional hidden state is required to yield residuals that are consistent with white noise. We compare these results with ordinary autoregressive models (without a hidden state) and find that autoregressive models underestimate the relaxation times by about two orders of magnitude due to their ignoring the distinction between observational and dynamic noise. This new interpretation of the dynamics of volatility in terms of relaxators in a state space model carries over to stochastic volatility models and to GARCH models, and is useful for several problems in finance, including risk management and the pricing of derivative securities. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1108834. 	[Title] ce: [39] <author> Yoda, M. </author> <year> (1994). </year> <title> Predicting the Tokyo stock market. </title> <editor> In Deboeck, G.J. (Ed.) </editor> <year> (1994). </year> <title> Trading on the Edge. </title> <address> New York: </address> <publisher> Wiley., </publisher> <pages> 66-79. </pages> <institution> VITA Graduate School Southern Illinois University Daniel Nikolaev Nikovski Date of Birth: </institution> <address> April 13, 1969 606 West College Street, Apt.4, Rm. 6, Carbondale, Illinois 62901 150 Hristo Botev Boulevard, Apt. </address> <month> 54, </month> <title> 4004 Plovdiv, Bulgaria Technical University - Sofia, Bulgaria Engineer of Computer Systems and Control Thesis Title: Adaptive Computation Techniques for Time Series Analysis Major Professor: </title> <journal> Dr. Mehdi Zargham </journal> [Abstract]  Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #240321. 	[Title] Nonlinear gated experts for time series: discovering regimes and avoiding overfitting [Abstract] In: International Journal of Neural Systems 6 (1995) p. 373 - 399. URL of this paper: ftp://ftp.cs.colorado.edu/pub/Time-Series/MyPapers/experts.ps.Z, or http://www.cs.colorado.edu/~andreas/Time-Series/MyPapers/experts.ps.Z University of Colorado Computer Science Technical Report CU-CS-798-95. In the analysis and prediction of real-world systems, two of the key problems are nonstationarity(often in the form of switching between regimes), and overfitting (particularly serious for noisy processes). This article addresses these problems using gated experts, consisting of a (nonlinear) gating network, and several (also nonlinear) competing experts. Each expert learns to predict the conditional mean, and each expert adapts its width to match the noise level in its regime. The gating network learns to predict the probability of each expert, given the input. This article focuses on the case where the gating network bases its decision on information from the inputs. This can be contrasted to hidden Markov models where the decision is based on the previous state(s) (i.e., on the output of the gating network at the previous time step), as well as to averaging over several predictors. In contrast, gated experts soft-partition the input space. This article discusses the underlying statistical assumptions, derives the weight update rules, and compares the performance of gated experts to standard methods on three time series: (1) a computer-generated series, obtained by randomly switching between two nonlinear processes, (2) a time series from the Santa Fe Time Series Competition (the light intensity of a laser in chaotic state), and (3) the daily electricity demand of France, a real-world multivariate problem with structure on several time scales. The main results are (1) the gating network correctly discovers the different regimes of the process, (2) the widths associated with each expert are important for the segmentation task (and they can be used to characterize the sub-processes), and (3) there is less overfitting compared to single networks (homogeneous multi-layer perceptrons), since the experts learn to match their variances to the (local) noise levels. This can be viewed as matching the local complexity of the model to the local complexity of the data. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1109185. 	[Title] Analysis of Drifting Dynamics with Neural Network Hidden Markov Models [Abstract] We present a method for the analysis of nonstationary time series with multiple operating modes. In particular, it is possible to detect and to model both a switching of the dynamics and a less abrupt, time consuming drift from one mode to another. This is achieved in two steps. First, an unsupervised training method provides prediction experts for the inherent dynamical modes. Then, the trained experts are used in a hidden Markov model that allows to model drifts. An application to physiological wake/sleep data demonstrates that analysis and modeling of real-world time series can be improved when the drift paradigm is taken into account. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #15076. 	[Title] Support Vector Machines: Training and Applications [Abstract] The Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a new and very promising classification technique developed by Vapnik and his group at AT&T Bell Laboratories [3, 6, 8, 24]. This new learning algorithm can be seen as an alternative training technique for Polynomial, Radial Basis Function and Multi-Layer Perceptron classifiers. The main idea behind the technique is to separate the classes with a surface that maximizes the margin between them. An interesting property of this approach is that it is an approximate implementation of the Structural Risk Minimization (SRM) induction principle [23]. The derivation of Support Vector Machines, its relationship with SRM, and its geometrical insight, are discussed in this paper. Since Structural Risk Minimization is an inductive principle that aims at minimizing a bound on the generalization error of a model, rather than minimizing the Mean Square Error over the data set (as Empirical Risk Minimization methods do), training a SVM to obtain the maximum margin classifier requires a different objective function. This objective function is then optimized by solving a large-scale quadratic programming problem with linear and box constraints. The problem is considered challenging, because the quadratic form is completely dense, so the memory needed to store the problem grows with the square of the number of data points. Therefore, training problems arising in some real applications with large data sets are impossible to load into memory, and cannot be solved using standard non-linear constrained optimization algorithms. We present a decomposition algorithm that can be used to train SVM's over large data sets. The main idea behind the decomposition is the iterative solution of sub-problems and the evaluation of, and also establish the stopping criteria for the algorithm. We present previous approaches, as well as results and important details of our implementation of the algorithm using a second-order variant of the Reduced Gradient Method as the solver of the sub-problems. As an application of SVM's, we present preliminary results in Frontal Human Face Detection in images. This application opens many interesting questions and future research opportunities, both in the context of faster and better optimization algorithms, and in the use of SVM's in other pattern classification, recognition, and detection applications. This report describes research done within the Center for Biological and Computational Learning in the Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences and the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. This research is sponsored by MURI grant N00014-95-1-0600; by a grant from ONR/ARPA under contract N00014-92-J-1879 and by the National Science Foundation under contract ASC-9217041 (this award includes funds from ARPA provided under the HPCC program). Edgar Osuna was supported by Fundacion Gran Mariscal de Ayacucho and Daimler Benz. Additional support is provided by Daimler-Benz, Eastman Kodak Company, Siemens Corporate Research, Inc. and AT&T. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #25702. 	[Title] Nonlinear Prediction of Chaotic Time Series Using Support Vector Machines [Abstract] A novel method for regression has been recently proposed by V. Vapnik et al. [8, 9]. The technique, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), is very well founded from the mathematical point of view and seems to provide a new insight in function approximation. We implemented the SVM and tested it on the same data base of chaotic time series that was used in [1] to compare the performances of different approximation techniques, including polynomial and rational approximation, local polynomial techniques, Radial Basis Functions, and Neural Networks. The SVM performs better than the approaches presented in [1]. We also study, for a particular time series, the variability in performance with respect to the few free parameters of SVM. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1153897. 	[Title]  [Abstract] An investigation into the dynamics of Genetic Programming applied to chaotic time series prediction is reported. An interesting characteristic of adaptive search techniques is their ability to perform well in many problem domains while failing in others. Because of Genetic Programming's flexible tree structure, any particular problem can be represented in myriad forms. These representations have variegated effects on search performance. Therefore, an aspect of fundamental engineering significance is to find a representation which, when acted upon by Genetic Programming operators, optimizes search performance. We discover, in the case of chaotic time series prediction, that the representation commonly used in this domain does not yield optimal solutions. Instead, we find that the population converges onto one "accurately replicating" tree before other trees can be explored. To correct for this premature convergence we make a simple modification to the crossover operator. In this paper we review previous work with GP time series prediction, pointing out an anomalous result related to overlearning, and report the improvement effected by our modified crossover operator. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1136397. 	[Title] State Reconstruction for Determining Predictability in Driven Nonlinear Acoustical Systems [Abstract]  Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #910. 	[Title] Learning networks for face analysis and synthesis [Abstract] This paper presents an overview of the face-related projects in our group. The unifying theme underlying our work is the use of example-based learning methods for both analyzing and synthesizing face images. We label the example face images (and for the problem of face detection, "near miss" faces as well) with descriptive parameters for pose, expression, identity, and face vs. non-face. Then, by using example-based learning techniques, we develop networks for performing analysis tasks such as pose and expression estimation, face recognition, and face detection in cluttered scenes. In addition to these analysis applications, we show how the example-based technique can also be used as a novel method for image synthesis that is for computer graphics. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #202639. 	[Title] PREDICTING SUNSPOTS AND EXCHANGE RATES WITH CONNECTIONIST NETWORKS [Abstract] We investigate the effectiveness of connectionist networks for predicting the future continuation of temporal sequences. The problem of overfitting, particularly serious for short records of noisy data, is addressed by the method of weight-elimination: a term penalizing network complexity is added to the usual cost function in back-propagation. The ultimate goal is prediction accuracy. We analyze two time series. On the benchmark sunspot series, the networks outperform traditional statistical approaches. We show that the network performance does not deteriorate when there are more input units than needed. Weight-elimination also manages to extract some part of the dynamics of the notoriously noisy currency exchange rates and makes the network solution interpretable. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1132434. 	[Title] Segmenting Time Series using Gated Experts with Simulated Annealing [Abstract] Many real-world time series are multi-stationary, where the underlying data generating process (DGP) switches between different stationary subprocesses, or modes of operation. An important problem in modeling such systems is to discover the underlying switching process, which entails identifying the number of subprocesses and the dynamics of each subprocess. For many time series, this problem is ill-defined, since there are often no obvious means to distinguish the different subprocesses. We discuss the use of nonlinear gated experts to perform the segmentation and system identification of the time series. Unlike standard gated experts methods, however, we use concepts from statistical physics to enhance the segmentation for high-noise problems where only a few experts are required. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #32276. 	[Title] Extracting Support Data for a Given Task [Abstract] We report a novel possibility for extracting a small subset of a data base which contains all the information necessary to solve a given classification task: using the Support Vector Algorithm to train three different types of handwritten digit classifiers, we observed that these types of classifiers construct their decision surface from strongly overlapping small ( 4%) subsets of the data base. This finding opens up the possibility of compressing data bases significantly by disposing of the data which is not important for the solution of a given task. In addition, we show that the theory allows us to predict the classifier that will have the best generalization ability, based solely on performance on the training set and characteristics of the learning machines. This finding is important for cases where the amount of available data is limited. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #636500. 	[Title] Predicting Time Series with Support Vector Machines [Abstract] Support Vector Machines are used for time series prediction and compared to radial basis function networks. We make use of two different cost functions for Support Vectors: training with (i) an * insensitive loss and (ii) Huber's robust loss function and discuss how to choose the regularization parameters in these models. Two applications are considered: data from (a) a noisy (normal and uniform noise) Mackey Glass equation and (b) the Santa Fe competition (set D). In both cases Support Vector Machines show an excellent performance. In case (b) the Support Vector approach improves the best known result on the benchmark by a factor of 37%. Please summarise all the given information.

Paper #147870 has the title `Annealed Competition of Experts for a Segmentation and Classification of Switching Dynamics  
` and the abstract `We present a method for the unsupervised segmentation of data streams originating from different unknown sources which alternate in time. We use an architecture consisting of competing neural networks. Memory is included in order to resolve ambiguities of input-output relations. In order to obtain maximal specialization, the competition is adiabatically increased during training. Our method achieves almost perfect identification and segmentation in the case of switching chaotic dynamics where input manifolds overlap and input-output relations are ambiguous. Only a small dataset is needed for the training proceedure. Applications to time series from complex systems demonstrate the potential relevance of our approach for time series analysis and short-term prediction. 
`.
Question: Which category should Paper #147870 be classified as ?
You can select one from ['Neural_Networks', 'Case_Based', 'Theory', 'Reinforcement_Learning', 'Probabilistic_Methods', 'Rule_Learning', 'Genetic_Algorithms'].


Paper #147870 has the title `Annealed Competition of Experts for a Segmentation and Classification of Switching Dynamics  
` and the abstract `We present a method for the unsupervised segmentation of data streams originating from different unknown sources which alternate in time. We use an architecture consisting of competing neural networks. Memory is included in order to resolve ambiguities of input-output relations. In order to obtain maximal specialization, the competition is adiabatically increased during training. Our method achieves almost perfect identification and segmentation in the case of switching chaotic dynamics where input manifolds overlap and input-output relations are ambiguous. Only a small dataset is needed for the training proceedure. Applications to time series from complex systems demonstrate the potential relevance of our approach for time series analysis and short-term prediction. 
`.
Question: Which category should Paper #147870 be classified as ?
You can select one from ['Neural_Networks', 'Case_Based', 'Theory', 'Reinforcement_Learning', 'Probabilistic_Methods', 'Rule_Learning', 'Genetic_Algorithms'].

This paper should be classified into: Neural_Networks