Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #15987. 	[Title] "Linear Dependencies Represented by Chain Graphs," "Graphical Modelling With MIM," Manual. "Identifying Independence in Bayesian [Abstract] 8] Dori, D. and Tarsi, M., "A Simple Algorithm to Construct a Consistent Extension of a Partially Oriented Graph," Computer Science Department, Tel-Aviv University. Also Technical Report R-185, UCLA, Cognitive Systems Laboratory, October 1992. [14] Pearl, J. and Wermuth, N., "When Can Association Graphs Admit a Causal Interpretation?," UCLA, Cognitive Systems Laboratory, Technical Report R-183-L, November 1992. [17] Verma, T.S. and Pearl, J., "Deciding Morality of Graphs is NP-complete," Technical Report R-188, UCLA, Cognitive Systems Laboratory, October 1992. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #653441. 	[Title] FROM BAYESIAN NETWORKS TO CAUSAL NETWORKS [Abstract] This paper demonstrates the use of graphs as a mathematical tool for expressing independencies, and as a formal language for communicating and processing causal information for decision analysis. We show how complex information about external interventions can be organized and represented graphically and, conversely, how the graphical representation can be used to facilitate quantitative predictions of the effects of interventions. We first review the theory of Bayesian networks and show that directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) offer an economical scheme for representing conditional independence assumptions and for deducing and displaying all the logical consequences of such assumptions. We then introduce the manipulative account of causation and show that any DAG defines a simple transformation which tells us how the probability distribution will change as a result of external interventions in the system. Using this transformation it is possible to quantify, from non-experimental data, the effects of external interventions and to specify conditions under which randomized experiments are not necessary. As an example, we show how the effect of smoking on lung cancer can be quantified from non-experimental data, using a minimal set of qualitative assumptions. Finally, the paper offers a graphical interpretation for Rubin's model of causal effects, and demonstrates its equivalence to the manipulative account of causation. We exemplify the tradeoffs between the two approaches by deriving nonparametric bounds on treatment effects under conditions of imperfect compliance. fl Portions of this paper were presented at the 49th Session of the International Statistical Institute, Florence, Italy, August 25 - September 3, 1993. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #523394. 	[Title] Automated Discovery of Linear Feedback Models 1 [Abstract]  Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #189571. 	[Title] Probabilistic evaluation of counterfactual queries [Abstract] To appear in the Twelfth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-94), Seattle, WA, July 31 August 4, 1994. Technical Report R-213-A April, 1994 Abstract Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, and determination of liability. We present a formalism that uses probabilistic causal networks to evaluate one's belief that the counterfactual consequent, C, would have been true if the antecedent, A, were true. The antecedent of the query is interpreted as an external action that forces the proposition A to be true, which is consistent with Lewis' Miraculous Analysis. This formalism offers a concrete embodiment of the "closest world" approach which (1) properly reflects common understanding of causal influences, (2) deals with the uncertainties inherent in the world, and (3) is amenable to machine representation. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #16008. 	[Title] [12] J. Whittaker. Graphical Models in Applied Mathematical Multivariate Statis- [Abstract]  Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #105865. 	[Title] Statistical Ideas for Selecting Network Architectures [Abstract] Choosing the architecture of a neural network is one of the most important problems in making neural networks practically useful, but accounts of applications usually sweep these details under the carpet. How many hidden units are needed? Should weight decay be used, and if so how much? What type of output units should be chosen? And so on. We address these issues within the framework of statistical theory for model This paper is principally concerned with architecture selection issues for feed-forward neural networks (also known as multi-layer perceptrons). Many of the same issues arise in selecting radial basis function networks, recurrent networks and more widely. These problems occur in a much wider context within statistics, and applied statisticians have been selecting and combining models for decades. Two recent discussions are [4, 5]. References [3, 20, 21, 22] discuss neural networks from a statistical perspective. choice, which provides a number of workable approximate answers. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1134346. 	[Title] group, and despite having just 337 subjects, the study strongly supports Identification of causal effects [Abstract] Figure 8a and Figure 8b show the prior distribution over f(-CR ) that follows from the flat prior and the skewed prior, respectively. Figure 8c and Figure 8d show the posterior distribution p(f (-CR jD)) obtained by our system when run on the Lipid data, using the flat prior and the skewed prior, respectively. From the bounds of Balke and Pearl (1994), it follows that under the large-sample assumption, 0:51 f (-CR jD) 0:86. Figure 8: Prior (a, b) and posterior (c,d) distributions for a subpopulation f (-CR jD) specified by the counter-factual query "Would Joe have improved had he taken the drug, given that he did not improve without it". (a) corresponds to the flat prior, (b) to the skewed prior. This paper identifies and demonstrates a new application area for network-based inference techniques - the management of causal analysis in clinical experimentation. These techniques, which were originally developed for medical diagnosis, are shown capable of circumventing one of the major problems in clinical experiments the assessment of treatment efficacy in the face of imperfect compliance. While standard diagnosis involves purely probabilistic inference in fully specified networks, causal analysis involves partially specified networks in which the links are given causal interpretation and where the domain of some variables are unknown. The system presented in this paper provides the clinical research community, we believe for the first time, an assumption-free, unbiased assessment of the average treatment effect. We offer this system as a practical tool to be used whenever full compliance cannot be enforced and, more broadly, whenever the data available is insufficient for answering the queries of interest to the clinical investigator. Lipid Research Clinic Program. 1984. The lipid research clinics coronary primary prevention trial results, parts i and ii. Journal of the American Medical Association 251(3):351-374. January. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #642827. 	[Title] Decomposable graphical Gaussian model determination [Abstract] We propose a methodology for Bayesian model determination in decomposable graphical Gaussian models. To achieve this aim we consider a hyper inverse Wishart prior distribution on the concentration matrix for each given graph. To ensure compatibility across models, such prior distributions are obtained by marginalisation from the prior conditional on the complete graph. We explore alternative structures for the hyperparameters of the latter, and their consequences for the model. Model determination is carried out by implementing a reversible jump MCMC sampler. In particular, the dimension-changing move we propose involves adding or dropping an edge from the graph. We characterise the set of moves which preserve the decomposability of the graph, giving a fast algorithm for maintaining the junction tree representation of the graph at each sweep. As state variable, we propose to use the incomplete variance-covariance matrix, containing only the elements for which the corresponding element of the inverse is nonzero. This allows all computations to be performed locally, at the clique level, which is a clear advantage for the analysis of large and complex data-sets. Finally, the statistical and computational performance of the procedure is illustrated by means of both artificial and real multidimensional data-sets. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #158098. 	[Title] An Alternative Markov Property for Chain Graphs [Abstract] Graphical Markov models use graphs, either undirected, directed, or mixed, to represent possible dependences among statistical variables. Applications of undirected graphs (UDGs) include models for spatial dependence and image analysis, while acyclic directed graphs (ADGs), which are especially convenient for statistical analysis, arise in such fields as genetics and psychometrics and as models for expert systems and Bayesian belief networks. Lauritzen, Wer-muth, and Frydenberg (LWF) introduced a Markov property for chain graphs, which are mixed graphs that can be used to represent simultaneously both causal and associative dependencies and which include both UDGs and ADGs as special cases. In this paper an alternative Markov property (AMP) for chain graphs is introduced, which in some ways is a more direct extension of the ADG Markov property than is the LWF property for chain graph. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #423463. 	[Title] Model Selection for Generalized Linear Models via GLIB, with Application to Epidemiology 1 [Abstract] 1 This is the first draft of a chapter for Bayesian Biostatistics, edited by Donald A. Berry and Darlene K. Strangl. Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology, Department of Statistics, GN-22, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. Sylvia Richardson is Directeur de Recherche, INSERM Unite 170, 16 avenue Paul Vaillant Couturier, 94807 Villejuif CEDEX, France. Raftery's research was supported by ONR contract no. N-00014-91-J-1074, by the Ministere de la Recherche et de l'Espace, Paris, by the Universite de Paris VI, and by INRIA, Rocquencourt, France. Raftery thanks the latter two institutions, Paul Deheuvels and Gilles Celeux for hearty hospitality during his Paris sabbatical in which part of this chapter was written. The authors are grateful to Christine Montfort for excellent research assistance and to Mariette Gerber, Michel Chavance and David Madigan for helpful discussions. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #714289. 	[Title] ASPECTS OF GRAPHICAL MODELS CONNECTED WITH CAUSALITY [Abstract] This paper demonstrates the use of graphs as a mathematical tool for expressing independenices, and as a formal language for communicating and processing causal information in statistical analysis. We show how complex information about external interventions can be organized and represented graphically and, conversely, how the graphical representation can be used to facilitate quantitative predictions of the effects of interventions. We first review the Markovian account of causation and show that directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) offer an economical scheme for representing conditional independence assumptions and for deducing and displaying all the logical consequences of such assumptions. We then introduce the manipulative account of causation and show that any DAG defines a simple transformation which tells us how the probability distribution will change as a result of external interventions in the system. Using this transformation it is possible to quantify, from non-experimental data, the effects of external interventions and to specify conditions under which randomized experiments are not necessary. Finally, the paper offers a graphical interpretation for Rubin's model of causal effects, and demonstrates its equivalence to the manipulative account of causation. We exemplify the tradeoffs between the two approaches by deriving nonparametric bounds on treatment effects under conditions of imperfect compliance. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #523574. 	[Title] [6] D. Geiger. Graphoids: a qualitative framework for probabilistic inference. An introduction to algorithms for [Abstract]  Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1154230. 	[Title] MEDIATING INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES [Abstract]  Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1154232. 	[Title]  [Abstract] In the Proceedings of the Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelli- gence (UAI-94), Seattle, WA, 46-54, July 29-31, 1994. Technical Report R-213-B April, 1994 Abstract Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, and determination of liability. In this paper we present methods for computing the probabilities of such queries using the formulation proposed in [Balke and Pearl, 1994], where the antecedent of the query is interpreted as an external action that forces the proposition A to be true. When a prior probability is available on the causal mechanisms governing the domain, counterfactual probabilities can be evaluated precisely. However, when causal knowledge is specified as conditional probabilities on the observables, only bounds can computed. This paper develops techniques for evaluating these bounds, and demonstrates their use in two applications: (1) the determination of treatment efficacy from studies in which subjects may choose their own treatment, and (2) the determination of liability in product-safety litigation. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #559804. 	[Title] On the Testability of Causal Models with Latent and Instrumental Variables [Abstract] Certain causal models involving unmeasured variables induce no independence constraints among the observed variables but imply, nevertheless, inequality constraints on the observed distribution. This paper derives a general formula for such inequality constraints as induced by instrumental variables, that is, exogenous variables that directly affect some variables but not all. With the help of this formula, it is possible to test whether a model involving instrumental variables may account for the data, or, conversely, whether a given vari able can be deemed instrumental. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #73162. 	[Title] Causal diagrams for empirical research [Abstract] The primary aim of this paper is to show how graphical models can be used as a mathematical language for integrating statistical and subject-matter information. In particular, the paper develops a principled, nonparametric framework for causal inference, in which diagrams are queried to determine if the assumptions available are sufficient for identifying causal effects from nonexperimental data. If so the diagrams can be queried to produce mathematical expressions for causal effects in terms of observed distributions; otherwise, the diagrams can be queried to suggest additional observations or auxiliary experiments from which the desired inferences can be obtained. Key words: Causal inference, graph models, structural equations, treatment effect. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #189774. 	[Title] Causal Inference from Indirect Experiments [Abstract] Indirect experiments are studies in which randomized control is replaced by randomized encouragement, that is, subjects are encouraged, rather than forced to receive treatment programs. The purpose of this paper is to bring to the attention of experimental researchers simple mathematical results that enable us to assess, from indirect experiments, the strength with which causal influences operate among variables of interest. The results reveal that despite the laxity of the encouraging instrument, indirect experimentation can yield significant and sometimes accurate information on the impact of a program on the population as a whole, as well as on the particular individuals who participated in the program. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #39890. 	[Title] A THEORY OF INFERRED CAUSATION perceive causal relationships in uncon trolled observations. 2. the task [Abstract] This paper concerns the empirical basis of causation, and addresses the following issues: We propose a minimal-model semantics of causation, and show that, contrary to common folklore, genuine causal influences can be distinguished from spurious covariations following standard norms of inductive reasoning. We also establish a sound characterization of the conditions under which such a distinction is possible. We provide an effective algorithm for inferred causation and show that, for a large class of data the algorithm can uncover the direction of causal influences as defined above. Finally, we ad dress the issue of non-temporal causation. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #561364. 	[Title] Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Determination for Hierarchical and Graphical Log-linear Models [Abstract] The Bayesian approach to comparing models involves calculating the posterior probability of each plausible model. For high-dimensional contingency tables, the set of plausible models is very large. We focus attention on reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (Green, 1995) and develop strategies for calculating posterior probabilities of hierarchical, graphical or decomposable log-linear models. Even for tables of moderate size, these sets of models may be very large. The choice of suitable prior distributions for model parameters is also discussed in detail, and two examples are presented. For the first example, a 2 fi 3 fi 4 table, the model probabilities calculated using our reversible jump approach are compared with model probabilities calculated exactly or by using an alternative approximation. The second example is a 2 6 contingency table for which exact methods are infeasible, due to the large number of possible models. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #310742. 	[Title] Bayesian Graphical Modeling for Intelligent Tutoring Systems [Abstract] Conventional Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) do not acknowledge uncertainty about the student's knowledge. Yet, both the outcome of any teaching intervention and the exact state of the student's knowledge are uncertain. In recent years, researchers have made startling progress in the management of uncertainty in knowledge-based systems. Building on these developments, we describe an ITS architecture that explicitly models uncertainty. This will facilitate more accurate student modeling and provide ITS's which can learn. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #5086. 	[Title] Approximate Bayes Factors and Accounting for Model Uncertainty in Generalized Linear Models [Abstract] Technical Report no. 255 Department of Statistics, University of Washington August 1993; Revised March 1994 Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #714975. 	[Title] Using Path Diagrams as a Structural Equation Modelling Tool [Abstract]  Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #714208. 	[Title] A Note on Testing Exogeneity of Instrumental Variables (DRAFT PAPER) [Abstract]  Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #129896. 	[Title] Accounting for Model Uncertainty in Survival Analysis Improves Predictive Performance [Abstract] Survival analysis is concerned with finding models to predict the survival of patients or to assess the efficacy of a clinical treatment. A key part of the model-building process is the selection of the predictor variables. It is standard to use a stepwise procedure guided by a series of significance tests to select a single model, and then to make inference conditionally on the selected model. However, this ignores model uncertainty, which can be substantial. We review the standard Bayesian model averaging solution to this problem and extend it to survival analysis, introducing partial Bayes factors to do so for the Cox proportional hazards model. In two examples, taking account of model uncertainty enhances predictive performance, to an extent that could be clinically useful. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1127530. 	[Title] Bayesian inference for nondecomposable graphical Gaussian models [Abstract] In this paper we propose a method to calculate the posterior probability of a nondecomposable graphical Gaussian model. Our proposal is based on a new device to sample from Wishart distributions, conditional on the graphical constraints. As a result, our methodology allows Bayesian model selection within the whole class of graphical Gaussian models, including nondecomposable ones. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #15984. 	[Title] On the Markov Equivalence of Chain Graphs, Undirected Graphs, and Acyclic Digraphs [Abstract] Graphical Markov models use undirected graphs (UDGs), acyclic directed graphs (ADGs), or (mixed) chain graphs to represent possible dependencies among random variables in a multivariate distribution. Whereas a UDG is uniquely determined by its associated Markov model, this is not true for ADGs or for general chain graphs (which include both UDGs and ADGs as special cases). This paper addresses three questions regarding the equivalence of graphical Markov models: when is a given chain graph Markov equivalent (1) to some UDG? (2) to some (at least one) ADG? (3) to some decomposable UDG? The answers are obtained by means of an extension of Frydenberg's (1990) elegant graph-theoretic characterization of the Markov equivalence of chain graphs. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #3191. 	[Title] Model Selection and Accounting for Model Uncertainty in Linear Regression Models [Abstract] 1 Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology, David Madigan is Assistant Professor of Statistics, and Jennifer Hoeting is a Ph.D. Candidate, all at the Department of Statistics, GN-22, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195. The research of Raftery and Hoeting was supported by ONR Contract N-00014-91-J-1074. Madigan's research was partially supported by NSF grant no. DMS 92111627. The authors are grateful to Danika Lew for research assistance. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #3192. 	[Title] Bayesian Graphical Models for Discrete Data [Abstract] z York's research was supported by a NSF graduate fellowship. The authors are grateful to Julian Besag, David Bradshaw, Jeff Bradshaw, James Carlsen, David Draper, Ivar Heuch, Robert Kass, Augustine Kong, Steffen Lauritzen, Adrian Raftery, and James Zidek for helpful comments and discussions. Please summarise all the given information.

Paper #15987 has the title `"Linear Dependencies Represented by Chain Graphs," "Graphical Modelling With MIM," Manual. "Identifying Independence in Bayesian
` and the abstract `8] Dori, D. and Tarsi, M., "A Simple Algorithm to Construct a Consistent Extension of a Partially Oriented Graph," Computer Science Department, Tel-Aviv University. Also Technical Report R-185, UCLA, Cognitive Systems Laboratory, October 1992. [14] Pearl, J. and Wermuth, N., "When Can Association Graphs Admit a Causal Interpretation?," UCLA, Cognitive Systems Laboratory, Technical Report R-183-L, November 1992. [17] Verma, T.S. and Pearl, J., "Deciding Morality of Graphs is NP-complete," Technical Report R-188, UCLA, Cognitive Systems Laboratory, October 1992. 
`.
Question: Which category should Paper #15987 be classified as ?
You can select one from ['Neural_Networks', 'Case_Based', 'Theory', 'Reinforcement_Learning', 'Probabilistic_Methods', 'Rule_Learning', 'Genetic_Algorithms'].


Paper #15987 has the title `"Linear Dependencies Represented by Chain Graphs," "Graphical Modelling With MIM," Manual. "Identifying Independence in Bayesian
` and the abstract `8] Dori, D. and Tarsi, M., "A Simple Algorithm to Construct a Consistent Extension of a Partially Oriented Graph," Computer Science Department, Tel-Aviv University. Also Technical Report R-185, UCLA, Cognitive Systems Laboratory, October 1992. [14] Pearl, J. and Wermuth, N., "When Can Association Graphs Admit a Causal Interpretation?," UCLA, Cognitive Systems Laboratory, Technical Report R-183-L, November 1992. [17] Verma, T.S. and Pearl, J., "Deciding Morality of Graphs is NP-complete," Technical Report R-188, UCLA, Cognitive Systems Laboratory, October 1992. 
`.
Question: Which category should Paper #15987 be classified as ?
You can select one from ['Neural_Networks', 'Case_Based', 'Theory', 'Reinforcement_Learning', 'Probabilistic_Methods', 'Rule_Learning', 'Genetic_Algorithms'].

This paper should be classified into: Probabilistic_Methods