Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #440815. 	[Title] Change Point and Change Curve Modeling in Stochastic Processes and Spatial Statistics [Abstract] 1 This article will appear in Volume 1, no. 4 (1994) of Journal of Applied Statistical Science. Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology, Department of Statistics, GN-22, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195. This research was supported by ONR contract no. N-00014-91-J-1074, by NIH Grant no. 5R01HD26330-02, by the Ministere de la Recherche et de l'Espace, Paris, by the Universite de Paris VI, and by INRIA, Rocquencourt, France. Raftery thanks the latter two institutions, Paul Deheuvels and Gilles Celeux for hearty hospitality during his Paris sabbatical in which this article was written. This article was prepared for presentation at the Conference on Applied Change Point Analysis, University of Maryland-Baltimore, March 17-18, 1993. Parts of this article review collaborative research with others to whom I would like to express my appreciation, namely Volkan Akman, Jeff Banfield, Nhu Le, Steven Lewis, Doug Martin, Fionn Murtagh, Ross Taplin and Simon Tavare. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #38537. 	[Title] BAYESIAN STATISTICS 6, pp. 000--000  Exact sampling for Bayesian inference: towards general purpose algorithms [Abstract] There are now methods for organising a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation so that it can be guaranteed that the state of the process at a given time is exactly drawn from the target distribution. The question of assessing convergence totally vanishes. Such methods are known as exact or perfect sampling. The approach that has received most attention uses the protocol of coupling from the past devised by Propp and Wilson (Random Structures and Algorithms,1996), in which multiple dependent paths of the chain are run from different initial states at a sequence of initial times going backwards into the past, until they satisfy the condition of coalescence by time 0. When this is achieved the state at time 0 is distributed according to the required target. This process must be implemented very carefully to assure its validity (including appropriate re-use of random number streams), and also requires one of various tricks to enable us to follow infinitely many sample paths with a finite amount of work. With the ultimate objective of Bayesian MCMC with guaranteed convergence, the purpose of this paper is to describe recent efforts to construct exact sampling methods for continuous-state Markov chains. We review existing methods based on gamma-coupling and rejection sampling (Murdoch and Green, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 1998), that are quite straightforward to understand, but require a closed form for the transition kernel and entail cumbersome algebraic manipulation. We then introduce two new methods based on random walk Metropolis, that offer the prospect of more automatic use, not least because the difficult, continuous, part of the transition mechanism can be coupled in a generic way, using a proposal distribution of convenience. One of the methods is based on a neat decomposition of any unimodal (multivariate) symmetric density into pieces that may be re-assembled to construct any translated copy of itself: that allows coupling of a continuum of Metropolis proposals to a finite set, at least for a compact state space. We discuss methods for economically coupling the subsequent accept/reject decisions. Our second new method deals with unbounded state spaces, using a trick due to W. S. Kendall of running a coupled dominating process in parallel with the sample paths of interest. The random subset of the state space below the dominating path is compact, allowing efficient coupling and coalescence. We look towards the possibility that application of such methods could become sufficiently convenient that they could become the basis for routine Bayesian computation in the foreseeable future. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #645897. 	[Title] A note on convergence rates of Gibbs sampling for nonparametric mixtures [Abstract] We consider a mixture model where the mixing distribution is random and is given a Dirichlet process prior. We describe the general structure of two Gibbs sampling algorithms that are useful for approximating Bayesian inferences in this problem. When the kernel f(x j ) of the mixture is bounded, we show that the Markov chains resulting from the Gibbs sampling are uniformly ergodic, and we provide an explicit rate bound. Unfortunately, the bound is not sharp in general; improving sensibly the bound seems however quite difficult. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #109323. 	[Title] Estimating Bayes Factors via Posterior Simulation with the Laplace-Metropolis Estimator [Abstract] The key quantity needed for Bayesian hypothesis testing and model selection is the marginal likelihood for a model, also known as the integrated likelihood, or the marginal probability of the data. In this paper we describe a way to use posterior simulation output to estimate marginal likelihoods. We describe the basic Laplace-Metropolis estimator for models without random effects. For models with random effects the compound Laplace-Metropolis estimator is introduced. This estimator is applied to data from the World Fertility Survey and shown to give accurate results. Batching of simulation output is used to assess the uncertainty involved in using the compound Laplace-Metropolis estimator. The method allows us to test for the effects of independent variables in a random effects model, and also to test for the presence of the random effects. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #561568. 	[Title] Analysis of hospital quality monitors using hierarchical time series models [Abstract] The VA management services department invests considerably in the collection and assessment of data to inform on hospital and care-area specific levels of quality of care. Resulting time series of quality monitors provide information relevant to evaluating patterns of variability in hospital-specific quality of care over time and across care areas, and to compare and assess differences across hospitals. In collaboration with the VA management services group we have developed various models for evaluating such patterns of dependencies and combining data across the VA hospital system. This paper provides a brief overview of resulting models, some summary examples on three monitor time series, and discussion of data, modelling and inference issues. This work introduces new models for multivariate non-Gaussian time series. The framework combines cross-sectional, hierarchical models of the population of hospitals with time series structure to allow and measure time-variations in the associated hierarchical model parameters. In the VA study, the within-year components of the models describe patterns of heterogeneity across the population of hospitals and relationships among several such monitors, while the time series components describe patterns of variability through time in hospital-specific effects and their relationships across quality monitors. Additional model components isolate unpredictable aspects of variability in quality monitor outcomes, by hospital and care areas. We discuss model assessment, residual analysis and MCMC algorithms developed to fit these models, which will be of interest in related applications in other socio-economic areas. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1105698. 	[Title] Covariate Selection in Hierarchical Models of Hospital Admission Counts: A Bayes Factor Approach 1 [Abstract] TECHNICAL REPORT No. 268 Department of Statistics, GN-22 University of Washington Seattle, Washington 98195 USA 1 Susan L. Rosenkranz is Pew Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow at the Institute for Health Policy Studies, Box 0936, University of California at San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143, and Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology, Department of Statistics, GN-22, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195. Rosenkranz's research was supported by the National Research Service Award 5T32CA 09168-17 from the National Cancer Institute. The authors are grateful to Paula Diehr and Kevin Cain for helpful discussions. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #423463. 	[Title] Model Selection for Generalized Linear Models via GLIB, with Application to Epidemiology 1 [Abstract] 1 This is the first draft of a chapter for Bayesian Biostatistics, edited by Donald A. Berry and Darlene K. Strangl. Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology, Department of Statistics, GN-22, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. Sylvia Richardson is Directeur de Recherche, INSERM Unite 170, 16 avenue Paul Vaillant Couturier, 94807 Villejuif CEDEX, France. Raftery's research was supported by ONR contract no. N-00014-91-J-1074, by the Ministere de la Recherche et de l'Espace, Paris, by the Universite de Paris VI, and by INRIA, Rocquencourt, France. Raftery thanks the latter two institutions, Paul Deheuvels and Gilles Celeux for hearty hospitality during his Paris sabbatical in which part of this chapter was written. The authors are grateful to Christine Montfort for excellent research assistance and to Mariette Gerber, Michel Chavance and David Madigan for helpful discussions. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #561581. 	[Title] Priors and Component Structures in Autoregressive Time Series Models [Abstract] New approaches to prior specification and structuring in autoregressive time series models are introduced and developed. We focus on defining classes of prior distributions for parameters and latent variables related to latent components of an autoregressive model for an observed time series. These new priors naturally permit the incorporation of both qualitative and quantitative prior information about the number and relative importance of physically meaningful components that represent low frequency trends, quasi-periodic sub-processes, and high frequency residual noise components of observed series. The class of priors also naturally incorporates uncertainty about model order, and hence leads in posterior analysis to model order assessment and resulting posterior and predictive inferences that incorporate full uncertainties about model order as well as model parameters. Analysis also formally incorporates uncertainty, and leads to inferences about, unknown initial values of the time series, as it does for predictions of future values. Posterior analysis involves easily implemented iterative simulation methods, developed and described here. One motivating applied field is climatology, where the evaluation of latent structure, especially quasi-periodic structure, is of critical importance in connection with issues of global climatic variability. We explore analysis of data from the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), one of several series that has been central in recent high-profile debates in the atmospheric sciences about recent apparent trends in climatic indicators. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #561593. 	[Title] FILTERING VIA SIMULATION: AUXILIARY PARTICLE FILTERS [Abstract] This paper analyses the recently suggested particle approach to filtering time series. We suggest that the algorithm is not robust to outliers for two reasons: the design of the simulators and the use of the discrete support to represent the sequentially updating prior distribution. Both problems are tackled in this paper. We believe we have largely solved the first problem and have reduced the order of magnitude of the second. In addition we introduce the idea of stratification into the particle filter which allows us to perform on-line Bayesian calculations about the parameters which index the models and maximum likelihood estimation. The new methods are illustrated by using a stochastic volatility model and a time series model of angles. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #561595. 	[Title] Exploratory Modelling of Multiple Non-Stationary Time Series: Latent Process Structure and Decompositions [Abstract] We describe and illustrate Bayesian approaches to modelling and analysis of multiple non-stationary time series. This begins with uni-variate models for collections of related time series assumedly driven by underlying but unobservable processes, referred to as dynamic latent factor processes. We focus on models in which the factor processes, and hence the observed time series, are modelled by time-varying autoregressions capable of flexibly representing ranges of observed non-stationary characteristics. We highlight concepts and new methods of time series decomposition to infer characteristics of latent components in time series, and relate uni-variate decomposition analyses to underlying multivariate dynamic factor structure. Our motivating application is in analysis of multiple EEG traces from an ongoing EEG study at Duke. In this study, individuals undergoing ECT therapy generate multiple EEG traces at various scalp locations, and physiological interest lies in identifying dependencies and dissimilarities across series. In addition to the multivariate and non-stationary aspects of the series, this area provides illustration of the new results about decomposition of time series into latent, physically interpretable components; this is illustrated in data analysis of one EEG data set. The paper also discusses current and future research directions. fl This research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under grant DMS-9311071. The EEG data and context arose from discussions with Dr Andrew Krystal, of Duke University Medical Center, with whom continued interactions have been most valuable. Address for correspondence: Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0251 U.S.A. (http://www.stat.duke.edu) Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #79809. 	[Title] MDL and MML Similarities and Differences (Introduction to Minimum Encoding Inference Part III) [Abstract] Tech Report 207 Department of Computer Science, Monash University, Clayton, Vic. 3168, Australia Abstract: This paper continues the introduction to minimum encoding inductive inference given by Oliver and Hand. This series of papers was written with the objective of providing an introduction to this area for statisticians. We describe the message length estimates used in Wallace's Minimum Message Length (MML) inference and Rissanen's Minimum Description Length (MDL) inference. The differences in the message length estimates of the two approaches are explained. The implications of these differences for applications are discussed. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #645571. 	[Title] A Note on the Dirichlet Process Prior in Bayesian Nonparametric Inference with Partial Exchangeability 1 [Abstract] Technical Report no. 297 Department of Statistics University of Washington 1 Sonia Petrone is Assistant Professor, Universita di Pavia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Metodi Quantitativi, I-27100 Pavia, Italy and Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Box 354322, Seattle, WA 98195-4322. This research was supported by ONR grant no. N-00014-91-J-1074 and by grants from MURST, Rome. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #561610. 	[Title] BAYESIAN TIME SERIES: Models and Computations for the Analysis of Time Series in the Physical Sciences [Abstract] This articles discusses developments in Bayesian time series mod-elling and analysis relevant in studies of time series in the physical and engineering sciences. With illustrations and references, we discuss: Bayesian inference and computation in various state-space models, with examples in analysing quasi-periodic series; isolation and modelling of various components of error in time series; decompositions of time series into significant latent subseries; nonlinear time series models based on mixtures of auto-regressions; problems with errors and uncertainties in the timing of observations; and the development of non-linear models based on stochastic deformations of time scales. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #561613. 	[Title] STUDIES OF QUALITY MONITOR TIME SERIES: THE V.A. HOSPITAL SYSTEM build on foundational contributions in [Abstract] This report describes statistical research and development work on hospital quality monitor data sets from the nationwide VA hospital system. The project covers statistical analysis, exploration and modelling of data from several quality monitors, with the primary goals of: (a) understanding patterns of variability over time in hospital-level and monitor area specific quality monitor measures, and (b) understanding patterns of dependencies between sets of monitors. We present discussion of basic perspectives on data structure and preliminary data exploration for three monitors, followed by developments of several classes of formal models. We identify classes of hierarchical random effects time series models to be of relevance in mod-elling single or multiple monitor time series. We summarise basic model features and results of analyses of the three monitor data sets, in both single and multiple monitor frameworks, and present a variety of summary inferences in graphical displays. Our discussion includes summary conclusions related to the two key goals, discussions of questions of comparisons across hospitals, and some recommendations about further potential substantive and statistical investigations. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #561364. 	[Title] Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Determination for Hierarchical and Graphical Log-linear Models [Abstract] The Bayesian approach to comparing models involves calculating the posterior probability of each plausible model. For high-dimensional contingency tables, the set of plausible models is very large. We focus attention on reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (Green, 1995) and develop strategies for calculating posterior probabilities of hierarchical, graphical or decomposable log-linear models. Even for tables of moderate size, these sets of models may be very large. The choice of suitable prior distributions for model parameters is also discussed in detail, and two examples are presented. For the first example, a 2 fi 3 fi 4 table, the model probabilities calculated using our reversible jump approach are compared with model probabilities calculated exactly or by using an alternative approximation. The second example is a 2 6 contingency table for which exact methods are infeasible, due to the large number of possible models. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #354004. 	[Title] Formal Rules for Selecting Prior Distributions: A Review and Annotated Bibliography [Abstract] Subjectivism has become the dominant philosophical foundation for Bayesian inference. Yet, in practice, most Bayesian analyses are performed with so-called "noninfor-mative" priors, that is, priors constructed by some formal rule. We review the plethora of techniques for constructing such priors, and discuss some of the practical and philosophical issues that arise when they are used. We give special emphasis to Jeffreys's rules and discuss the evolution of his point of view about the interpretation of priors, away from unique representation of ignorance toward the notion that they should be chosen by convention. We conclude that the problems raised by the research on priors chosen by formal rules are serious and may not be dismissed lightly; when sample sizes are small (relative to the number of parameters being estimated) it is dangerous to put faith in any "default" solution; but when asymptotics take over, Jeffreys's rules and their variants remain reasonable choices. We also provide an annotated bibliography. fl Robert E. Kass is Professor and Larry Wasserman is Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213-2717. The work of both authors was supported by NSF grant DMS-9005858 and NIH grant R01-CA54852-01. The authors thank Nick Polson for helping with a few annotations, and Jim Berger, Teddy Seidenfeld and Arnold Zellner for useful comments and discussion. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1131223. 	[Title] On Sequential Simulation-Based Methods for Bayesian Filtering [Abstract] In this report, we present an overview of sequential simulation-based methods for Bayesian filtering of nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamic models. It includes in a general framework numerous methods proposed independently in various areas of science and proposes some original developments. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #645084. 	[Title] Modelling Risk from a Disease in Time and Space [Abstract] This paper combines existing models for longitudinal and spatial data in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, with particular emphasis on the role of time- and space-varying covariate effects. Data analysis is implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The methodology is illustrated by a tentative re-analysis of Ohio lung cancer data 1968-88. Two approaches that adjust for unmeasured spatial covariates, particularly tobacco consumption, are described. The first includes random effects in the model to account for unobserved heterogeneity; the second adds a simple urbanization measure as a surrogate for smoking behaviour. The Ohio dataset has been of particular interest because of the suggestion that a nuclear facility in the southwest of the state may have caused increased levels of lung cancer there. However, we contend here that the data are inadequate for a proper investigation of this issue. fl Email: leo@stat.uni-muenchen.de Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #5086. 	[Title] Approximate Bayes Factors and Accounting for Model Uncertainty in Generalized Linear Models [Abstract] Technical Report no. 255 Department of Statistics, University of Washington August 1993; Revised March 1994 Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #153063. 	[Title] Bayesian Forecasting of Multinomial Time Series through Conditionally Gaussian Dynamic Models [Abstract] Claudia Cargnoni is with the Dipartimento Statistico, Universita di Firenze, 50100 Firenze, Italy. Peter Muller is Assistant Professor, and Mike West is Professor, in the Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences at Duke University, Durham NC 27708-0251. Research of Cargnoni was performed while visiting ISDS during 1995. Muller and West were partially supported by NSF under grant DMS-9305699. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #129896. 	[Title] Accounting for Model Uncertainty in Survival Analysis Improves Predictive Performance [Abstract] Survival analysis is concerned with finding models to predict the survival of patients or to assess the efficacy of a clinical treatment. A key part of the model-building process is the selection of the predictor variables. It is standard to use a stepwise procedure guided by a series of significance tests to select a single model, and then to make inference conditionally on the selected model. However, this ignores model uncertainty, which can be substantial. We review the standard Bayesian model averaging solution to this problem and extend it to survival analysis, introducing partial Bayes factors to do so for the Cox proportional hazards model. In two examples, taking account of model uncertainty enhances predictive performance, to an extent that could be clinically useful. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #3187. 	[Title] A Reference Bayesian Test for Nested Hypotheses And its Relationship to the Schwarz Criterion [Abstract]  Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #3191. 	[Title] Model Selection and Accounting for Model Uncertainty in Linear Regression Models [Abstract] 1 Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology, David Madigan is Assistant Professor of Statistics, and Jennifer Hoeting is a Ph.D. Candidate, all at the Department of Statistics, GN-22, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195. The research of Raftery and Hoeting was supported by ONR Contract N-00014-91-J-1074. Madigan's research was partially supported by NSF grant no. DMS 92111627. The authors are grateful to Danika Lew for research assistance. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #3192. 	[Title] Bayesian Graphical Models for Discrete Data [Abstract] z York's research was supported by a NSF graduate fellowship. The authors are grateful to Julian Besag, David Bradshaw, Jeff Bradshaw, James Carlsen, David Draper, Ivar Heuch, Robert Kass, Augustine Kong, Steffen Lauritzen, Adrian Raftery, and James Zidek for helpful comments and discussions. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #137849. 	[Title] Inference in Model-Based Cluster Analysis [Abstract] Technical Report no. 285 Department of Statistics University of Washington. March 10, 1995 Please summarise all the given information.

Paper #440815 has the title `Change Point and Change Curve Modeling in Stochastic Processes and Spatial Statistics  
` and the abstract `1 This article will appear in Volume 1, no. 4 (1994) of Journal of Applied Statistical Science. Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology, Department of Statistics, GN-22, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195. This research was supported by ONR contract no. N-00014-91-J-1074, by NIH Grant no. 5R01HD26330-02, by the Ministere de la Recherche et de l'Espace, Paris, by the Universite de Paris VI, and by INRIA, Rocquencourt, France. Raftery thanks the latter two institutions, Paul Deheuvels and Gilles Celeux for hearty hospitality during his Paris sabbatical in which this article was written. This article was prepared for presentation at the Conference on Applied Change Point Analysis, University of Maryland-Baltimore, March 17-18, 1993. Parts of this article review collaborative research with others to whom I would like to express my appreciation, namely Volkan Akman, Jeff Banfield, Nhu Le, Steven Lewis, Doug Martin, Fionn Murtagh, Ross Taplin and Simon Tavare. 
`.
Question: Which category should Paper #440815 be classified as ?
You can select one from ['Neural_Networks', 'Case_Based', 'Theory', 'Reinforcement_Learning', 'Probabilistic_Methods', 'Rule_Learning', 'Genetic_Algorithms'].


Paper #440815 has the title `Change Point and Change Curve Modeling in Stochastic Processes and Spatial Statistics  
` and the abstract `1 This article will appear in Volume 1, no. 4 (1994) of Journal of Applied Statistical Science. Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology, Department of Statistics, GN-22, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195. This research was supported by ONR contract no. N-00014-91-J-1074, by NIH Grant no. 5R01HD26330-02, by the Ministere de la Recherche et de l'Espace, Paris, by the Universite de Paris VI, and by INRIA, Rocquencourt, France. Raftery thanks the latter two institutions, Paul Deheuvels and Gilles Celeux for hearty hospitality during his Paris sabbatical in which this article was written. This article was prepared for presentation at the Conference on Applied Change Point Analysis, University of Maryland-Baltimore, March 17-18, 1993. Parts of this article review collaborative research with others to whom I would like to express my appreciation, namely Volkan Akman, Jeff Banfield, Nhu Le, Steven Lewis, Doug Martin, Fionn Murtagh, Ross Taplin and Simon Tavare. 
`.
Question: Which category should Paper #440815 be classified as ?
You can select one from ['Neural_Networks', 'Case_Based', 'Theory', 'Reinforcement_Learning', 'Probabilistic_Methods', 'Rule_Learning', 'Genetic_Algorithms'].

This paper should be classified into: Probabilistic_Methods