Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #105865. 	[Title] Statistical Ideas for Selecting Network Architectures [Abstract] Choosing the architecture of a neural network is one of the most important problems in making neural networks practically useful, but accounts of applications usually sweep these details under the carpet. How many hidden units are needed? Should weight decay be used, and if so how much? What type of output units should be chosen? And so on. We address these issues within the framework of statistical theory for model This paper is principally concerned with architecture selection issues for feed-forward neural networks (also known as multi-layer perceptrons). Many of the same issues arise in selecting radial basis function networks, recurrent networks and more widely. These problems occur in a much wider context within statistics, and applied statisticians have been selecting and combining models for decades. Two recent discussions are [4, 5]. References [3, 20, 21, 22] discuss neural networks from a statistical perspective. choice, which provides a number of workable approximate answers. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #105856. 	[Title] Vapnik-Chervonenkis Dimension of Recurrent Neural Networks [Abstract] Most of the work on the Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension of neural networks has been focused on feedforward networks. However, recurrent networks are also widely used in learning applications, in particular when time is a relevant parameter. This paper provides lower and upper bounds for the VC dimension of such networks. Several types of activation functions are discussed, including threshold, polynomial, piecewise-polynomial and sigmoidal functions. The bounds depend on two independent parameters: the number w of weights in the network, and the length k of the input sequence. In contrast, for feedforward networks, VC dimension bounds can be expressed as a function of w only. An important difference between recurrent and feedforward nets is that a fixed recurrent net can receive inputs of arbitrary length. Therefore we are particularly interested in the case k w. Ignoring multiplicative constants, the main results say roughly the following: * For architectures with activation = any fixed nonlinear polynomial, the VC dimension is wk. * For architectures with activation = any fixed piecewise polynomial, the VC dimension is between wk and w 2 k. * For architectures with activation = H (threshold nets), the VC dimension is between w log(k=w) and minfwk log wk; w 2 + w log wkg. * For the standard sigmoid (x) = 1=(1 + e x ), the VC dimension is between wk and w 4 k 2 . An earlier version of this paper has appeared in Proc. 3rd European Workshop on Computational Learning Theory, LNCS 1208, pages 223-237, Springer, 1997. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1131267. 	[Title] Parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. [Abstract] Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers have proved remarkably popular as tools for Bayesian computation. However, problems can arise in their application when the density of interest is high dimensional and strongly correlated. In these circumstances the sampler may be slow to traverse the state space and mixing is poor. In this article we offer a partial solution to this problem. The state space of the Markov chain is augmented to accommodate multiple chains in parallel. Updates to individual chains are based around a genetic style crossover operator acting on `parent' states drawn from the population of chains. This process makes efficient use of gradient information implicitly encoded within the distribution of states across the population. Empirical studies support the claim that the crossover operator acting on a parallel population of chains improves mixing. This is illustrated with an example of sampling a high dimensional posterior probability density from a complex predictive model. By adopting a latent variable approach the methodology is extended to deal with variable selection and model averaging in high dimensions. This is illustrated with an example of knot selection for a spline interpolant. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #16008. 	[Title] [12] J. Whittaker. Graphical Models in Applied Mathematical Multivariate Statis- [Abstract]  Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #193931. 	[Title] What Size Neural Network Gives Optimal Generalization? Convergence Properties of Backpropagation [Abstract] Technical Report UMIACS-TR-96-22 and CS-TR-3617 Institute for Advanced Computer Studies University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742 Abstract One of the most important aspects of any machine learning paradigm is how it scales according to problem size and complexity. Using a task with known optimal training error, and a pre-specified maximum number of training updates, we investigate the convergence of the backpropagation algorithm with respect to a) the complexity of the required function approximation, b) the size of the network in relation to the size required for an optimal solution, and c) the degree of noise in the training data. In general, for a) the solution found is worse when the function to be approximated is more complex, for b) oversized networks can result in lower training and generalization error in certain cases, and for c) the use of committee or ensemble techniques can be more beneficial as the level of noise in the training data is increased. For the experiments we performed, we do not obtain the optimal solution in any case. We further support the observation that larger networks can produce better training and generalization error using a face recognition example where a network with many more parameters than training points generalizes better than smaller networks. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #193932. 	[Title] Lessons in Neural Network Training: Overfitting Lessons in Neural Network Training: Overfitting May be Harder [Abstract] For many reasons, neural networks have become very popular AI machine learning models. Two of the most important aspects of machine learning models are how well the model generalizes to unseen data, and how well the model scales with problem complexity. Using a controlled task with known optimal training error, we investigate the convergence of the backpropagation (BP) algorithm. We find that the optimal solution is typically not found. Furthermore, we observe that networks larger than might be expected can result in lower training and generalization error. This result is supported by another real world example. We further investigate the training behavior by analyzing the weights in trained networks (excess degrees of freedom are seen to do little harm and to aid convergence), and contrasting the interpolation characteristics of multi-layer perceptron neural networks (MLPs) and polynomial models (overfitting behavior is very different the MLP is often biased towards smoother solutions). Finally, we analyze relevant theory outlining the reasons for significant practical differences. These results bring into question common beliefs about neural network training regarding convergence and optimal network size, suggest alternate guidelines for practical use (lower fear of excess degrees of freedom), and help to direct future work (e.g. methods for creation of more parsimonious solutions, importance of the MLP/BP bias and possibly worse performance of improved training algorithms). Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #642827. 	[Title] Decomposable graphical Gaussian model determination [Abstract] We propose a methodology for Bayesian model determination in decomposable graphical Gaussian models. To achieve this aim we consider a hyper inverse Wishart prior distribution on the concentration matrix for each given graph. To ensure compatibility across models, such prior distributions are obtained by marginalisation from the prior conditional on the complete graph. We explore alternative structures for the hyperparameters of the latter, and their consequences for the model. Model determination is carried out by implementing a reversible jump MCMC sampler. In particular, the dimension-changing move we propose involves adding or dropping an edge from the graph. We characterise the set of moves which preserve the decomposability of the graph, giving a fast algorithm for maintaining the junction tree representation of the graph at each sweep. As state variable, we propose to use the incomplete variance-covariance matrix, containing only the elements for which the corresponding element of the inverse is nonzero. This allows all computations to be performed locally, at the clique level, which is a clear advantage for the analysis of large and complex data-sets. Finally, the statistical and computational performance of the procedure is illustrated by means of both artificial and real multidimensional data-sets. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #137873. 	[Title] Stacked Density Estimation [Abstract] Technical Report No. 97-36, Information and Computer Science Department, University of California, Irvine Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #423463. 	[Title] Model Selection for Generalized Linear Models via GLIB, with Application to Epidemiology 1 [Abstract] 1 This is the first draft of a chapter for Bayesian Biostatistics, edited by Donald A. Berry and Darlene K. Strangl. Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology, Department of Statistics, GN-22, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. Sylvia Richardson is Directeur de Recherche, INSERM Unite 170, 16 avenue Paul Vaillant Couturier, 94807 Villejuif CEDEX, France. Raftery's research was supported by ONR contract no. N-00014-91-J-1074, by the Ministere de la Recherche et de l'Espace, Paris, by the Universite de Paris VI, and by INRIA, Rocquencourt, France. Raftery thanks the latter two institutions, Paul Deheuvels and Gilles Celeux for hearty hospitality during his Paris sabbatical in which part of this chapter was written. The authors are grateful to Christine Montfort for excellent research assistance and to Mariette Gerber, Michel Chavance and David Madigan for helpful discussions. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #308920. 	[Title] A Graphical Characterization of Lattice Conditional Independence Models [Abstract] Lattice conditional independence (LCI) models for multivariate normal data recently have been introduced for the analysis of non-monotone missing data patterns and of nonnested dependent linear regression models ( seemingly unrelated regressions). It is shown here that the class of LCI models coincides with a subclass of the class of graphical Markov models determined by acyclic digraphs (ADGs), namely, the subclass of transitive ADG models. An explicit graph - theoretic characterization of those ADGs that are Markov equivalent to some transitive ADG is obtained. This characterization allows one to determine whether a specific ADG D is Markov equivalent to some transitive ADG, hence to some LCI model, in polynomial time, without an exhaustive search of the (exponentially large) equivalence class [D ]. These results do not require the existence or positivity of joint densities. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1111240. 	[Title] On the Distribution of Performance from Multiple Neural Network Trials, On the Distribution of Performance [Abstract] Andrew D. Back was with the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Queensland. St. Lucia, Australia. He is now with the Brain Information Processing Group, Frontier Research Program, RIKEN, The Institute of Physical and Chemical Research, 2-1 Hirosawa, Wako-shi, Saitama 351-01, Japan Abstract The performance of neural network simulations is often reported in terms of the mean and standard deviation of a number of simulations performed with different starting conditions. However, in many cases, the distribution of the individual results does not approximate a Gaussian distribution, may not be symmetric, and may be multimodal. We present the distribution of results for practical problems and show that assuming Gaussian distributions can significantly affect the interpretation of results, especially those of comparison studies. For a controlled task which we consider, we find that the distribution of performance is skewed towards better performance for smoother target functions and skewed towards worse performance Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #39890. 	[Title] A THEORY OF INFERRED CAUSATION perceive causal relationships in uncon trolled observations. 2. the task [Abstract] This paper concerns the empirical basis of causation, and addresses the following issues: We propose a minimal-model semantics of causation, and show that, contrary to common folklore, genuine causal influences can be distinguished from spurious covariations following standard norms of inductive reasoning. We also establish a sound characterization of the conditions under which such a distinction is possible. We provide an effective algorithm for inferred causation and show that, for a large class of data the algorithm can uncover the direction of causal influences as defined above. Finally, we ad dress the issue of non-temporal causation. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #561364. 	[Title] Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Determination for Hierarchical and Graphical Log-linear Models [Abstract] The Bayesian approach to comparing models involves calculating the posterior probability of each plausible model. For high-dimensional contingency tables, the set of plausible models is very large. We focus attention on reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (Green, 1995) and develop strategies for calculating posterior probabilities of hierarchical, graphical or decomposable log-linear models. Even for tables of moderate size, these sets of models may be very large. The choice of suitable prior distributions for model parameters is also discussed in detail, and two examples are presented. For the first example, a 2 fi 3 fi 4 table, the model probabilities calculated using our reversible jump approach are compared with model probabilities calculated exactly or by using an alternative approximation. The second example is a 2 6 contingency table for which exact methods are infeasible, due to the large number of possible models. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #310742. 	[Title] Bayesian Graphical Modeling for Intelligent Tutoring Systems [Abstract] Conventional Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) do not acknowledge uncertainty about the student's knowledge. Yet, both the outcome of any teaching intervention and the exact state of the student's knowledge are uncertain. In recent years, researchers have made startling progress in the management of uncertainty in knowledge-based systems. Building on these developments, we describe an ITS architecture that explicitly models uncertainty. This will facilitate more accurate student modeling and provide ITS's which can learn. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #5086. 	[Title] Approximate Bayes Factors and Accounting for Model Uncertainty in Generalized Linear Models [Abstract] Technical Report no. 255 Department of Statistics, University of Washington August 1993; Revised March 1994 Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #100197. 	[Title] Neural Networks and Statistical Models Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual SAS Users Group International Conference, [Abstract]  Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1106789. 	[Title] Model Selection for Consumer Loan Application Data [Abstract] Loan applications at banks are often long, requiring the applicant to provide large amounts of data. Is all of it necessary? Can we save the applicant some frustration and the bank some expense by using only a subset of the relevant variables? To answer this question, I have attempted to model the current loan approval process at a particular bank. I have used several model selection techniques for logistic regression, including stepwise regression, Occam's Window, Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Composition (Raftery, Madigan, and Hoeting, 1993), and Bayesian Random Searching. The resulting models largely agree upon a subset of only one-third of the original variables. fl This paper was completed in partial fulfillment of the Ph.D. data analysis requirement. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #162664. 	[Title] An Algorithm for the Construction of Bayesian Network Structures from Data [Abstract] Previous algorithms for the construction of Bayesian belief network structures from data have been either highly dependent on conditional independence (CI) tests, or have required an ordering on the nodes to be supplied by the user. We present an algorithm that integrates these two approaches - CI tests are used to generate an ordering on the nodes from the database which is then used to recover the underlying Bayesian network structure using a non CI based method. Results of preliminary evaluation of the algorithm on two networks (ALARM and LED) are presented. We also discuss some algo rithm performance issues and open problems. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #129896. 	[Title] Accounting for Model Uncertainty in Survival Analysis Improves Predictive Performance [Abstract] Survival analysis is concerned with finding models to predict the survival of patients or to assess the efficacy of a clinical treatment. A key part of the model-building process is the selection of the predictor variables. It is standard to use a stepwise procedure guided by a series of significance tests to select a single model, and then to make inference conditionally on the selected model. However, this ignores model uncertainty, which can be substantial. We review the standard Bayesian model averaging solution to this problem and extend it to survival analysis, introducing partial Bayes factors to do so for the Cox proportional hazards model. In two examples, taking account of model uncertainty enhances predictive performance, to an extent that could be clinically useful. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1127530. 	[Title] Bayesian inference for nondecomposable graphical Gaussian models [Abstract] In this paper we propose a method to calculate the posterior probability of a nondecomposable graphical Gaussian model. Our proposal is based on a new device to sample from Wishart distributions, conditional on the graphical constraints. As a result, our methodology allows Bayesian model selection within the whole class of graphical Gaussian models, including nondecomposable ones. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #129897. 	[Title] The out-of-bootstrap method for model averaging and selection [Abstract] We propose a bootstrap-based method for model averaging and selection that focuses on training points that are left out of individual bootstrap samples. This information can be used to estimate optimal weighting factors for combining estimates from different bootstrap samples, and also for finding the best subsets the linear model setting. These proposals provide alternatives to Bayesian approaches to model averaging and selection, requiring less computation and fewer subjective choices. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #350319. 	[Title] Averaging and Data Snooping [Abstract] Presenting and Analyzing the Results of AI Experiments: Data Averaging and Data Snooping, Proceedings of the Fourteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI-97, AAAI Press, Menlo Park, California, pp. 362367, 1997. Copyright AAAI. Presenting and Analyzing the Results of AI Experiments: Abstract Experimental results reported in the machine learning AI literature can be misleading. This paper investigates the common processes of data averaging (reporting results in terms of the mean and standard deviation of the results from multiple trials) and data snooping in the context of neural networks, one of the most popular AI machine learning models. Both of these processes can result in misleading results and inaccurate conclusions. We demonstrate how easily this can happen and propose techniques for avoiding these very important problems. For data averaging, common presentation assumes that the distribution of individual results is Gaussian. However, we investigate the distribution for common problems and find that it often does not approximate the Gaussian distribution, may not be symmetric, and may be multimodal. We show that assuming Gaussian distributions can significantly affect the interpretation of results, especially those of comparison studies. For a controlled task, we find that the distribution of performance is skewed towards better performance for smoother target functions and skewed towards worse performance for more complex target functions. We propose new guidelines for reporting performance which provide more information about the actual distribution (e.g. box-whiskers plots). For data snooping, we demonstrate that optimization of performance via experimentation with multiple parameters can lead to significance being assigned to results which are due to chance. We suggest that precise descriptions of experimental techniques can be very important to the evaluation of results, and that we need to be aware of potential data snooping biases when formulating these experimental techniques (e.g. selecting the test procedure). Additionally, it is important to only rely on appropriate statistical tests and to ensure that any assumptions made in the tests are valid (e.g. normality of the distribution). Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #15987. 	[Title] "Linear Dependencies Represented by Chain Graphs," "Graphical Modelling With MIM," Manual. "Identifying Independence in Bayesian [Abstract] 8] Dori, D. and Tarsi, M., "A Simple Algorithm to Construct a Consistent Extension of a Partially Oriented Graph," Computer Science Department, Tel-Aviv University. Also Technical Report R-185, UCLA, Cognitive Systems Laboratory, October 1992. [14] Pearl, J. and Wermuth, N., "When Can Association Graphs Admit a Causal Interpretation?," UCLA, Cognitive Systems Laboratory, Technical Report R-183-L, November 1992. [17] Verma, T.S. and Pearl, J., "Deciding Morality of Graphs is NP-complete," Technical Report R-188, UCLA, Cognitive Systems Laboratory, October 1992. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #3191. 	[Title] Model Selection and Accounting for Model Uncertainty in Linear Regression Models [Abstract] 1 Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology, David Madigan is Assistant Professor of Statistics, and Jennifer Hoeting is a Ph.D. Candidate, all at the Department of Statistics, GN-22, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195. The research of Raftery and Hoeting was supported by ONR Contract N-00014-91-J-1074. Madigan's research was partially supported by NSF grant no. DMS 92111627. The authors are grateful to Danika Lew for research assistance. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #3192. 	[Title] Bayesian Graphical Models for Discrete Data [Abstract] z York's research was supported by a NSF graduate fellowship. The authors are grateful to Julian Besag, David Bradshaw, Jeff Bradshaw, James Carlsen, David Draper, Ivar Heuch, Robert Kass, Augustine Kong, Steffen Lauritzen, Adrian Raftery, and James Zidek for helpful comments and discussions. Please summarise all the given information.

Paper #105865 has the title `Statistical Ideas for Selecting Network Architectures  
` and the abstract `Choosing the architecture of a neural network is one of the most important problems in making neural networks practically useful, but accounts of applications usually sweep these details under the carpet. How many hidden units are needed? Should weight decay be used, and if so how much? What type of output units should be chosen? And so on. We address these issues within the framework of statistical theory for model This paper is principally concerned with architecture selection issues for feed-forward neural networks (also known as multi-layer perceptrons). Many of the same issues arise in selecting radial basis function networks, recurrent networks and more widely. These problems occur in a much wider context within statistics, and applied statisticians have been selecting and combining models for decades. Two recent discussions are [4, 5]. References [3, 20, 21, 22] discuss neural networks from a statistical perspective. choice, which provides a number of workable approximate answers.
`.
Question: Which category should Paper #105865 be classified as ?
You can select one from ['Neural_Networks', 'Case_Based', 'Theory', 'Reinforcement_Learning', 'Probabilistic_Methods', 'Rule_Learning', 'Genetic_Algorithms'].


Paper #105865 has the title `Statistical Ideas for Selecting Network Architectures  
` and the abstract `Choosing the architecture of a neural network is one of the most important problems in making neural networks practically useful, but accounts of applications usually sweep these details under the carpet. How many hidden units are needed? Should weight decay be used, and if so how much? What type of output units should be chosen? And so on. We address these issues within the framework of statistical theory for model This paper is principally concerned with architecture selection issues for feed-forward neural networks (also known as multi-layer perceptrons). Many of the same issues arise in selecting radial basis function networks, recurrent networks and more widely. These problems occur in a much wider context within statistics, and applied statisticians have been selecting and combining models for decades. Two recent discussions are [4, 5]. References [3, 20, 21, 22] discuss neural networks from a statistical perspective. choice, which provides a number of workable approximate answers.
`.
Question: Which category should Paper #105865 be classified as ?
You can select one from ['Neural_Networks', 'Case_Based', 'Theory', 'Reinforcement_Learning', 'Probabilistic_Methods', 'Rule_Learning', 'Genetic_Algorithms'].

This paper should be classified into: Neural_Networks