Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #643597. 	[Title] A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach to Modelling Nonlinear Time Series [Abstract] The Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression spline (BMARS) methodology of Denison et al. (1997) is extended to cope with nonlinear time series and financial datasets. The nonlinear time series model is closely related to the adaptive spline threshold autoregressive (ASTAR) method of Lewis and Stevens (1991) while the financial models can be thought of as Bayesian versions of both the generalised and simple autoregressive conditional het-eroscadastic (GARCH and ARCH) models. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #672064. 	[Title] Direct Multi-Step Time Series Prediction Using TD() [Abstract] This paper explores the application of Temporal Difference (TD) learning (Sutton, 1988) to forecasting the behavior of dynamical systems with real-valued outputs (as opposed to game-like situations). The performance of TD learning in comparison to standard supervised learning depends on the amount of noise present in the data. In this paper, we use a deterministic chaotic time series from a low-noise laser. For the task of direct five-step ahead predictions, our experiments show that standard supervised learning is better than TD learning. The TD algorithm can be viewed as linking adjacent predictions. A similar effect can be obtained by sharing the internal representation in the network. We thus compare two architectures for both paradigms: the first architecture (separate hidden units) consists of individual networks for each of the five direct multi-step prediction tasks, the second (shared hidden units) has a single (larger) hidden layer that finds a representation from which all five predictions for the next five steps are generated. For this data set we do not find any significant difference between the two architectures. fl http://www.cs.colorado.edu/~andreas/Home.html. This paper is available as ftp://ftp.cs.colorado.edu/pub/Time-Series/MyPapers/kazlas.weigend nips7.ps.Z Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #40131. 	[Title] A comparison of neural net and conventional techniques for lighting control [Abstract] We compare two techniques for lighting control in an actual room equipped with seven banks of lights and photoresistors to detect the lighting level at four sensing points. Each bank of lights can be independently set to one of sixteen intensity levels. The task is to determine the device intensity levels that achieve a particular configuration of sensor readings. One technique we explored uses a neural network to approximate the mapping between sensor readings and device intensity levels. The other technique we examined uses a conventional feedback control loop. The neural network approach appears superior both in that it does not require experimentation on the fly (and hence fluctuating light intensity levels during settling, and lengthy settling times) and in that it can deal with complex interactions that conventional control techniques do not handle well. This comparison was performed as part of the "Adaptive House" project, which is described briefly. Further directions for control in the Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1117348. 	[Title] MIXED MEMORY MARKOV MODELS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS [Abstract] This paper presents a method for analyzing coupled time series using Markov models in a domain where the state space is immense. To make the parameter estimation tractable, the large state space is represented as the Cartesian product of smaller state spaces, a paradigm known as factorial Markov models. The transition matrix for this model is represented as a mixture of the transition matrices of the underlying dynamical processes. This formulation is know as mixed memory Markov models. Using this framework, we analyze the daily exchange rates for five currencies - British pound, Canadian dollar, Deutsch mark, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc as measured against the U.S. dollar. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #24966. 	[Title] A Practical Bayesian Framework for Backprop Networks [Abstract] A quantitative and practical Bayesian framework is described for learning of mappings in feedforward networks. The framework makes possible: (1) objective comparisons between solutions using alternative network architectures; (2) objective stopping rules for network pruning or growing procedures; (3) objective choice of magnitude and type of weight decay terms or additive regularisers (for penalising large weights, etc.); (4) a measure of the effective number of well-determined parameters in a model; (5) quantified estimates of the error bars on network parameters and on network output; (6) objective comparisons with alternative learning and interpolation models such as splines and radial basis functions. The Bayesian `evidence' automatically embodies `Occam's razor,' penalising over-flexible and over-complex models. The Bayesian approach helps detect poor underlying assumptions in learning models. For learning models well matched to a problem, a good correlation between generalisation ability and the Bayesian evidence is obtained. This paper makes use of the Bayesian framework for regularisation and model comparison described in the companion paper `Bayesian interpolation' (MacKay, 1991a). This framework is due to Gull and Skilling (Gull, 1989a). Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #25702. 	[Title] Nonlinear Prediction of Chaotic Time Series Using Support Vector Machines [Abstract] A novel method for regression has been recently proposed by V. Vapnik et al. [8, 9]. The technique, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), is very well founded from the mathematical point of view and seems to provide a new insight in function approximation. We implemented the SVM and tested it on the same data base of chaotic time series that was used in [1] to compare the performances of different approximation techniques, including polynomial and rational approximation, local polynomial techniques, Radial Basis Functions, and Neural Networks. The SVM performs better than the approaches presented in [1]. We also study, for a particular time series, the variability in performance with respect to the few free parameters of SVM. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1154123. 	[Title]  [Abstract] Most connectionist modeling assumes noise-free inputs. This assumption is often violated. This paper introduces the idea of clearning, of simultaneously cleaning the data and learning the underlying structure. The cleaning step can be viewed as top-down processing (where the model modifies the data), and the learning step can be viewed as bottom-up processing (where the data modifies the model). Clearning is used in conjunction with standard pruning. This paper discusses the statistical foundation of clearning, gives an interpretation in terms of a mechanical model, describes how to obtain both point predictions and conditional densities for the output, and shows how the resulting model can be used to discover properties of the data otherwise not accessible (such as the signal-to-noise ratio of the inputs). This paper uses clearning to predict foreign exchange rates, a noisy time series problem with well-known benchmark performances. On the out-of-sample 1993-1994 test period, clearning obtains an annualized return on investment above 30%, significantly better than an otherwise identical network. The final ultra-sparse network with 36 remaining non-zero input-to-hidden weights (of the 1035 initial weights between 69 inputs and 15 hidden units) is very robust against overfitting. This small network also lends itself to interpretation. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1154124. 	[Title]  [Abstract] Most connectionist modeling assumes noise-free inputs. This assumption is often violated. This paper introduces the idea of clearning, of simultaneously cleaning the data and learning the underlying structure. The cleaning step can be viewed as top-down processing (where the model modifies the data), and the learning step can be viewed as bottom-up processing (where the data modifies the model). Clearning is used in conjunction with standard pruning. This paper discusses the statistical foundation of clearning, gives an interpretation in terms of a mechanical model, describes how to obtain both point predictions and conditional densities for the output, and shows how the resulting model can be used to discover properties of the data otherwise not accessible (such as the signal-to-noise ratio of the inputs). This paper uses clearning to predict foreign exchange rates, a noisy time series problem with well-known benchmark performances. On the out-of-sample 1993-1994 test period, clearning obtains an annualized return on investment above 30%, significantly better than an otherwise identical network. The final ultra-sparse network with 36 remaining non-zero input-to-hidden weights (of the 1035 initial weights between 69 inputs and 15 hidden units) is very robust against overfitting. This small network also lends itself to interpretation. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #242637. 	[Title] A Delay Damage Model Selection Algorithm for NARX Neural Networks [Abstract] Recurrent neural networks have become popular models for system identification and time series prediction. NARX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive models with eXogenous inputs) neural network models are a popular subclass of recurrent networks and have been used in many applications. Though embedded memory can be found in all recurrent network models, it is particularly prominent in NARX models. We show that using intelligent memory order selection through pruning and good initial heuristics significantly improves the generalization and predictive performance of these nonlinear systems on problems as diverse as grammatical inference and time series prediction. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #643695. 	[Title] Simulation Based Bayesian Nonparametric Regression Methods [Abstract]  Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #202639. 	[Title] PREDICTING SUNSPOTS AND EXCHANGE RATES WITH CONNECTIONIST NETWORKS [Abstract] We investigate the effectiveness of connectionist networks for predicting the future continuation of temporal sequences. The problem of overfitting, particularly serious for short records of noisy data, is addressed by the method of weight-elimination: a term penalizing network complexity is added to the usual cost function in back-propagation. The ultimate goal is prediction accuracy. We analyze two time series. On the benchmark sunspot series, the networks outperform traditional statistical approaches. We show that the network performance does not deteriorate when there are more input units than needed. Weight-elimination also manages to extract some part of the dynamics of the notoriously noisy currency exchange rates and makes the network solution interpretable. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1123087. 	[Title] Noisy Time Series Prediction using Symbolic Representation and Recurrent Neural Network Grammatical Inference [Abstract] Financial forecasting is an example of a signal processing problem which is challenging due to small sample sizes, high noise, non-stationarity, and non-linearity. Neural networks have been very successful in a number of signal processing applications. We discuss fundamental limitations and inherent difficulties when using neural networks for the processing of high noise, small sample size signals. We introduce a new intelligent signal processing method which addresses the difficulties. The method uses conversion into a symbolic representation with a self-organizing map, and grammatical inference with recurrent neural networks. We apply the method to the prediction of daily foreign exchange rates, addressing difficulties with non-stationarity, overfitting, and unequal a priori class probabilities, and we find significant predictability in comprehensive experiments covering 5 different foreign exchange rates. The method correctly predicts the direction of change for the next day with an error rate of 47.1%. The error rate reduces to around 40% when rejecting examples where the system has low confidence in its prediction. The symbolic representation aids the extraction of symbolic knowledge from the recurrent neural networks in the form of deterministic finite state automata. These automata explain the operation of the system and are often relatively simple. Rules related to well known behavior such as trend following and mean reversal are extracted. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1154068. 	[Title] Bayesian MARS [Abstract] A Bayesian approach to multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) fitting (Friedman, 1991) is proposed. This takes the form of a probability distribution over the space of possible MARS models which is explored using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (Green, 1995). The generated sample of MARS models produced is shown to have good predictive power when averaged and allows easy interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the overall fit. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #144408. 	[Title] Neural net architectures for temporal sequence processing [Abstract] I present a general taxonomy of neural net architectures for processing time-varying patterns. This taxonomy subsumes many existing architectures in the literature, and points to several promising architectures that have yet to be examined. Any architecture that processes time-varying patterns requires two conceptually distinct components: a short-term memory that holds on to relevant past events and an associator that uses the short-term memory to classify or predict. My taxonomy is based on a characterization of short-term memory models along the dimensions of form, content, and adaptability. Experiments on predicting future values of a financial time series (US dollar-Swiss franc exchange rates) are presented using several alternative memory models. The results of these experiments serve as a baseline against which more sophisticated architectures can be compared. Neural networks have proven to be a promising alternative to traditional techniques for nonlinear temporal prediction tasks (e.g., Curtiss, Brandemuehl, & Kreider, 1992; Lapedes & Farber, 1987; Weigend, Huberman, & Rumelhart, 1992). However, temporal prediction is a particularly challenging problem because conventional neural net architectures and algorithms are not well suited for patterns that vary over time. The prototypical use of neural nets is in structural pattern recognition. In such a task, a collection of features|visual, semantic, or otherwise|is presented to a network and the network must categorize the input feature pattern as belonging to one or more classes. For example, a network might be trained to classify animal species based on a set of attributes describing living creatures such as "has tail", "lives in water", or "is carnivorous"; or a network could be trained to recognize visual patterns over a two-dimensional pixel array as a letter in fA; B; . . . ; Zg. In such tasks, the network is presented with all relevant information simultaneously. In contrast, temporal pattern recognition involves processing of patterns that evolve over time. The appropriate response at a particular point in time depends not only on the current input, but potentially all previous inputs. This is illustrated in Figure 1, which shows the basic framework for a temporal prediction problem. I assume that time is quantized into discrete steps, a sensible assumption because many time series of interest are intrinsically discrete, and continuous series can be sampled at a fixed interval. The input at time t is denoted x(t). For univariate series, this input Please summarise all the given information.

Paper #643597 has the title `A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach to Modelling Nonlinear Time Series  
` and the abstract `The Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression spline (BMARS) methodology of Denison et al. (1997) is extended to cope with nonlinear time series and financial datasets. The nonlinear time series model is closely related to the adaptive spline threshold autoregressive (ASTAR) method of Lewis and Stevens (1991) while the financial models can be thought of as Bayesian versions of both the generalised and simple autoregressive conditional het-eroscadastic (GARCH and ARCH) models. 
`.
Question: Which category should Paper #643597 be classified as ?
You can select one from ['Neural_Networks', 'Case_Based', 'Theory', 'Reinforcement_Learning', 'Probabilistic_Methods', 'Rule_Learning', 'Genetic_Algorithms'].


Paper #643597 has the title `A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach to Modelling Nonlinear Time Series  
` and the abstract `The Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression spline (BMARS) methodology of Denison et al. (1997) is extended to cope with nonlinear time series and financial datasets. The nonlinear time series model is closely related to the adaptive spline threshold autoregressive (ASTAR) method of Lewis and Stevens (1991) while the financial models can be thought of as Bayesian versions of both the generalised and simple autoregressive conditional het-eroscadastic (GARCH and ARCH) models. 
`.
Question: Which category should Paper #643597 be classified as ?
You can select one from ['Neural_Networks', 'Case_Based', 'Theory', 'Reinforcement_Learning', 'Probabilistic_Methods', 'Rule_Learning', 'Genetic_Algorithms'].

This paper should be classified into: Probabilistic_Methods