Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #672071. 	[Title] Predictions with Confidence Intervals (Local Error Bars) [Abstract] We present a new method for obtaining local error bars, i.e., estimates of the confidence in the predicted value that depend on the input. We approach this problem of nonlinear regression in a maximum likelihood framework. We demonstrate our technique first on computer generated data with locally varying, normally distributed target noise. We then apply it to the laser data from the Santa Fe Time Series Competition. Finally, we extend the technique to estimate error bars for iterated predictions, and apply it to the exact competition task where it gives the best performance to date. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #672064. 	[Title] Direct Multi-Step Time Series Prediction Using TD() [Abstract] This paper explores the application of Temporal Difference (TD) learning (Sutton, 1988) to forecasting the behavior of dynamical systems with real-valued outputs (as opposed to game-like situations). The performance of TD learning in comparison to standard supervised learning depends on the amount of noise present in the data. In this paper, we use a deterministic chaotic time series from a low-noise laser. For the task of direct five-step ahead predictions, our experiments show that standard supervised learning is better than TD learning. The TD algorithm can be viewed as linking adjacent predictions. A similar effect can be obtained by sharing the internal representation in the network. We thus compare two architectures for both paradigms: the first architecture (separate hidden units) consists of individual networks for each of the five direct multi-step prediction tasks, the second (shared hidden units) has a single (larger) hidden layer that finds a representation from which all five predictions for the next five steps are generated. For this data set we do not find any significant difference between the two architectures. fl http://www.cs.colorado.edu/~andreas/Home.html. This paper is available as ftp://ftp.cs.colorado.edu/pub/Time-Series/MyPapers/kazlas.weigend nips7.ps.Z Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #671269. 	[Title] Predicting Conditional Probability Distributions: A Connectionist Approach [Abstract] Most traditional prediction techniques deliver the mean of the probability distribution (a single point). For multimodal processes, instead of predicting the mean of the probability distribution, it is important to predict the full distribution. This article presents a new connectionist method to predict the conditional probability distribution in response to an input. The main idea is to transform the problem from a regression to a classification problem. The conditional probability distribution network can perform both direct predictions and iterated predictions, a task which is specific for time series problems. We compare our method to fuzzy logic and discuss important differences, and also demonstrate the architecture on two time series. The first is the benchmark laser series used in the Santa Fe competition, a deterministic chaotic system. The second is a time series from a Markov process which exhibits structure on two time scales. The network produces multimodal predictions for this series. We compare the predictions of the network with a nearest-neighbor predictor and find that the conditional probability network is more than twice as likely a model. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #24966. 	[Title] A Practical Bayesian Framework for Backprop Networks [Abstract] A quantitative and practical Bayesian framework is described for learning of mappings in feedforward networks. The framework makes possible: (1) objective comparisons between solutions using alternative network architectures; (2) objective stopping rules for network pruning or growing procedures; (3) objective choice of magnitude and type of weight decay terms or additive regularisers (for penalising large weights, etc.); (4) a measure of the effective number of well-determined parameters in a model; (5) quantified estimates of the error bars on network parameters and on network output; (6) objective comparisons with alternative learning and interpolation models such as splines and radial basis functions. The Bayesian `evidence' automatically embodies `Occam's razor,' penalising over-flexible and over-complex models. The Bayesian approach helps detect poor underlying assumptions in learning models. For learning models well matched to a problem, a good correlation between generalisation ability and the Bayesian evidence is obtained. This paper makes use of the Bayesian framework for regularisation and model comparison described in the companion paper `Bayesian interpolation' (MacKay, 1991a). This framework is due to Gull and Skilling (Gull, 1989a). Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #675847. 	[Title] NONLINEAR TRADING MODELS THROUGH SHARPE RATIO MAXIMIZATION [Abstract] Working Paper IS-97-005, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, New York University. In: Decision Technologies for Financial Engineering (Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Neural Networks in the Capital Markets, NNCM-96), pp. 3-22. Edited by A.S.Weigend, Y.S.Abu-Mostafa, and A.-P.N.Refenes. Singapore: World Scientific, 1997. http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~aweigend/Research/Papers/SharpeRatio While many trading strategies are based on price prediction, traders in financial markets are typically interested in risk-adjusted performance such as the Sharpe Ratio, rather than price predictions themselves. This paper introduces an approach which generates a nonlinear strategy that explicitly maximizes the Sharpe Ratio. It is expressed as a neural network model whose output is the position size between a risky and a risk-free asset. The iterative parameter update rules are derived and compared to alternative approaches. The resulting trading strategy is evaluated and analyzed on both computer-generated data and real world data (DAX, the daily German equity index). Trading based on Sharpe Ratio maximization compares favorably to both profit optimization and probability matching (through cross-entropy optimization). The results show that the goal of optimizing out-of-sample risk-adjusted profit can be achieved with this nonlinear approach. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #672070. 	[Title] Evaluating Neural Network Predictors by Bootstrapping [Abstract] We present a new method, inspired by the bootstrap, whose goal it is to determine the quality and reliability of a neural network predictor. Our method leads to more robust forecasting along with a large amount of statistical information on forecast performance that we exploit. We exhibit the method in the context of multi-variate time series prediction on financial data from the New York Stock Exchange. It turns out that the variation due to different resamplings (i.e., splits between training, cross-validation, and test sets) is significantly larger than the variation due to different network conditions (such as architecture and initial weights). Furthermore, this method allows us to forecast a probability distribution, as opposed to the traditional case of just a single value at each time step. We demonstrate this on a strictly held-out test set that includes the 1987 stock market crash. We also compare the performance of the class of neural networks to identically bootstrapped linear models. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #4330. 	[Title] Hierarchical Mixtures of Experts and the EM Algorithm [Abstract] We present a tree-structured architecture for supervised learning. The statistical model underlying the architecture is a hierarchical mixture model in which both the mixture coefficients and the mixture components are generalized linear models (GLIM's). Learning is treated as a maximum likelihood problem; in particular, we present an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for adjusting the parameters of the architecture. We also develop an on-line learning algorithm in which the parameters are updated incrementally. Comparative simulation results are presented in the robot dynamics domain. This report describes research done at the Dept. of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, the Center for Biological and Computational Learning, and the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Support for CBCL is provided in part by a grant from the NSF (ASC-9217041). Support for the laboratory's artificial intelligence research is provided in part by the Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Dept. of Defense. The authors were supported by a grant from the McDonnell-Pew Foundation, by a grant from ATR Human Information Processing Research Laboratories, by a grant from Siemens Corporation, by by grant IRI-9013991 from the National Science Foundation, by grant N00014-90-J-1942 from the Office of Naval Research, and by NSF grant ECS-9216531 to support an Initiative in Intelligent Control at MIT. Michael I. Jordan is a NSF Presidential Young Investigator. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1154123. 	[Title]  [Abstract] Most connectionist modeling assumes noise-free inputs. This assumption is often violated. This paper introduces the idea of clearning, of simultaneously cleaning the data and learning the underlying structure. The cleaning step can be viewed as top-down processing (where the model modifies the data), and the learning step can be viewed as bottom-up processing (where the data modifies the model). Clearning is used in conjunction with standard pruning. This paper discusses the statistical foundation of clearning, gives an interpretation in terms of a mechanical model, describes how to obtain both point predictions and conditional densities for the output, and shows how the resulting model can be used to discover properties of the data otherwise not accessible (such as the signal-to-noise ratio of the inputs). This paper uses clearning to predict foreign exchange rates, a noisy time series problem with well-known benchmark performances. On the out-of-sample 1993-1994 test period, clearning obtains an annualized return on investment above 30%, significantly better than an otherwise identical network. The final ultra-sparse network with 36 remaining non-zero input-to-hidden weights (of the 1035 initial weights between 69 inputs and 15 hidden units) is very robust against overfitting. This small network also lends itself to interpretation. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1154124. 	[Title]  [Abstract] Most connectionist modeling assumes noise-free inputs. This assumption is often violated. This paper introduces the idea of clearning, of simultaneously cleaning the data and learning the underlying structure. The cleaning step can be viewed as top-down processing (where the model modifies the data), and the learning step can be viewed as bottom-up processing (where the data modifies the model). Clearning is used in conjunction with standard pruning. This paper discusses the statistical foundation of clearning, gives an interpretation in terms of a mechanical model, describes how to obtain both point predictions and conditional densities for the output, and shows how the resulting model can be used to discover properties of the data otherwise not accessible (such as the signal-to-noise ratio of the inputs). This paper uses clearning to predict foreign exchange rates, a noisy time series problem with well-known benchmark performances. On the out-of-sample 1993-1994 test period, clearning obtains an annualized return on investment above 30%, significantly better than an otherwise identical network. The final ultra-sparse network with 36 remaining non-zero input-to-hidden weights (of the 1035 initial weights between 69 inputs and 15 hidden units) is very robust against overfitting. This small network also lends itself to interpretation. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1132461. 	[Title] Avoiding overfitting by locally matching the noise level of the data gating network discovers the [Abstract] When trying to forecast the future behavior of a real-world system, two of the key problems are nonstationarity of the process (e.g., regime switching) and overfitting of the model (particularly serious for noisy processes). This articles shows how gated experts can point to solutions to these problems. The architecture, also called society of experts and mixture of experts consists of a (nonlinear) gating network and several (nonlinear) competing experts. Each expert learns a conditional mean (as usual), but each expert also has its own adaptive width. The gating network learns to assign a probability to each expert that depends on the input. This article first discusses the assumptions underlying this architecture and derives the weight update rules. It then evaluates the performance of gated experts in comparison to that of single networks, as well as to networks with two outputs, one predicting the mean, the other one the local error bar. This article also investigates the ability of gated experts to discover and characterize underlying the regimes. The results are: * there is significantly less overfitting compared to single nets, for two reasons: only subsets of the potential inputs are given to the experts and gating network (less of a curse of dimensionality), and the experts learn to match their variances to the (local) noise levels, thus only learning as This article focuses on the architecture and the overfitting problem. Applications to a computer-generated toy problem and the laser data from Santa Fe Competition are given in [Mangeas and Weigend, 1995], and the application to the real-world problem of predicting the electricity demand of France are given in [Mangeas et al., 1995]. much as the data support. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1131150. 	[Title] Penalisation multiple adaptative un nouvel algorithme de regression, la penalisation multiple adapta-tive. Cet algorithme represente [Abstract] Chaque parametre du modele est penalise individuellement. Le reglage de ces penalisations se fait automatiquement a partir de la definition d'un hyperparametre de regularisation globale. Cet hyperparametre, qui controle la complexite du regresseur, peut ^etre estime par des techniques de reechantillonnage. Nous montrons experimentalement les performances et la stabilite de la penalisation multiple adaptative dans le cadre de la regression lineaire. Nous avons choisi des problemes pour lesquels le probleme du controle de la complexite est particulierement crucial, comme dans le cadre plus general de l'estimation fonctionnelle. Les comparaisons avec les moindres carres regularises et la selection de variables nous permettent de deduire les conditions d'application de chaque algorithme de penalisation. Lors des simulations, nous testons egalement plusieurs techniques de reechantillonnage. Ces techniques sont utilisees pour selectionner la complexite optimale des estimateurs de la fonction de regression. Nous comparons les pertes occasionnees par chacune d'entre elles lors de la selection de modeles sous-optimaux. Nous regardons egalement si elles permettent de determiner l'estimateur de la fonction de regression minimisant l'erreur en generalisation parmi les differentes methodes de penalisation en competition. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #145134. 	[Title] Brief Papers Computing Second Derivatives in Feed-Forward Networks: A Review [Abstract] The calculation of second derivatives is required by recent training and analysis techniques of connectionist networks, such as the elimination of superfluous weights, and the estimation of confidence intervals both for weights and network outputs. We here review and develop exact and approximate algorithms for calculating second derivatives. For networks with jwj weights, simply writing the full matrix of second derivatives requires O(jwj 2 ) operations. For networks of radial basis units or sigmoid units, exact calculation of the necessary intermediate terms requires of the order of 2h + 2 backward/forward-propagation passes where h is the number of hidden units in the network. We also review and compare three approximations (ignoring some components of the second derivative, numerical differentiation, and scoring). Our algorithms apply to arbitrary activation functions, networks, and error functions (for instance, with connections that skip layers, or radial basis functions, or cross-entropy error and Softmax units, etc.). Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #69392. 	[Title] Forecasting electricity demand using nonlinear mixture of experts [Abstract] In this paper we study a forecasting model based on mixture of experts for predicting the French electric daily consumption energy. We split the task into two parts. Using mixture of experts, a first model predicts the electricity demand from the exogenous variables (such as temperature and degree of cloud cover) and can be viewed as a nonlinear regression model of mixture of Gaussians. Using a single neural network, a second model predicts the evolution of the residual error of the first one, and can be viewed as an nonlinear autoregression model. We analyze the splitting of the input space generated by the mixture of experts model, and compare the performance to models presently used. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #6130. 	[Title] ``Learning Local Error Bars for Nonlinear Regression.''  Learning Local Error Bars for Nonlinear Regression [Abstract] We present a new method for obtaining local error bars for nonlinear regression, i.e., estimates of the confidence in predicted values that depend on the input. We approach this problem by applying a maximum-likelihood framework to an assumed distribution of errors. We demonstrate our method first on computer-generated data with locally varying, normally distributed target noise. We then apply it to laser data from the Santa Fe Time Series Competition where the underlying system noise is known quantization error and the error bars give local estimates of model misspecification. In both cases, the method also provides a weighted-regression effect that improves generalization performance. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #3229. 	[Title] Book Review  Introduction to the Theory of Neural Computation Reviewed by: 2 [Abstract] Neural computation, also called connectionism, parallel distributed processing, neural network modeling or brain-style computation, has grown rapidly in the last decade. Despite this explosion, and ultimately because of impressive applications, there has been a dire need for a concise introduction from a theoretical perspective, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of connectionist approaches and establishing links to other disciplines, such as statistics or control theory. The Introduction to the Theory of Neural Computation by Hertz, Krogh and Palmer (subsequently referred to as HKP) is written from the perspective of physics, the home discipline of the authors. The book fulfills its mission as an introduction for neural network novices, provided that they have some background in calculus, linear algebra, and statistics. It covers a number of models that are often viewed as disjoint. Critical analyses and fruitful comparisons between these models Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #641976. 	[Title] A comparison of some error estimates for neural network models  Summary [Abstract] We discuss a number of methods for estimating the standard error of predicted values from a multi-layer perceptron. These methods include the delta method based on the Hessian, bootstrap estimators, and the "sandwich" estimator. The methods are described and compared in a number of examples. We find that the bootstrap methods perform best, partly because they capture variability due to the choice of starting weights. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #1132443. 	[Title] The Observer-Observation Dilemma in Neuro-Forecasting: Reliable Models From Unreliable Data Through CLEARNING [Abstract] This paper introduces the idea of clearning, of simultaneously cleaning data and learning the underlying structure. The cleaning step can be viewed as top-down processing (the model modifies the data), and the learning step can be viewed as bottom-up processing (where the data modifies the model). After discussing the statistical foundation of the proposed method from a maximum likelihood perspective, we apply clearning to a notoriously hard problem where benchmark performances are very well known: the prediction of foreign exchange rates. On the difficult 1993-1994 test period, clearning in conjunction with pruning yields an annualized return between 35 and 40% (out-of-sample), significantly better than an otherwise identical network trained without cleaning. The network was started with 69 inputs and 15 hidden units and ended up with only 39 non-zero weights between inputs and hidden units. The resulting ultra-sparse final architectures obtained with clearning and pruning are immune against overfitting, even on very noisy problems since the cleaned data allow for a simpler model. Apart from the very competitive performance, clearning gives insight into the data: we show how to estimate the overall signal-to-noise ratio of each input variable, and we show that error estimates for each pattern can be used to detect and remove outliers, and to replace missing or corrupted data by cleaned values. Clearning can be used in any nonlinear regression or classification problem. Please summarise all the given information.

Above are papers related to the following paper: [Paper_ID] Paper #671293. 	[Title] Selecting Input Variables Using Mutual Information and Nonparametric Density Estimation [Abstract] In learning problems where a connectionist network is trained with a finite sized training set, better generalization performance is often obtained when unneeded weights in the network are eliminated. One source of unneeded weights comes from the inclusion of input variables that provide little information about the output variables. We propose a method for identifying and eliminating these input variables. The method first determines the relationship between input and output variables using nonparametric density estimation and then measures the relevance of input variables using the information theoretic concept of mutual information. We present results from our method on a simple toy problem and a nonlinear time series. Please summarise all the given information.

Paper #672071 has the title `Predictions with Confidence Intervals (Local Error Bars)  
` and the abstract `We present a new method for obtaining local error bars, i.e., estimates of the confidence in the predicted value that depend on the input. We approach this problem of nonlinear regression in a maximum likelihood framework. We demonstrate our technique first on computer generated data with locally varying, normally distributed target noise. We then apply it to the laser data from the Santa Fe Time Series Competition. Finally, we extend the technique to estimate error bars for iterated predictions, and apply it to the exact competition task where it gives the best performance to date.
`.
Question: Which category should Paper #672071 be classified as ?
You can select one from ['Neural_Networks', 'Case_Based', 'Theory', 'Reinforcement_Learning', 'Probabilistic_Methods', 'Rule_Learning', 'Genetic_Algorithms'].


Paper #672071 has the title `Predictions with Confidence Intervals (Local Error Bars)  
` and the abstract `We present a new method for obtaining local error bars, i.e., estimates of the confidence in the predicted value that depend on the input. We approach this problem of nonlinear regression in a maximum likelihood framework. We demonstrate our technique first on computer generated data with locally varying, normally distributed target noise. We then apply it to the laser data from the Santa Fe Time Series Competition. Finally, we extend the technique to estimate error bars for iterated predictions, and apply it to the exact competition task where it gives the best performance to date.
`.
Question: Which category should Paper #672071 be classified as ?
You can select one from ['Neural_Networks', 'Case_Based', 'Theory', 'Reinforcement_Learning', 'Probabilistic_Methods', 'Rule_Learning', 'Genetic_Algorithms'].

This paper should be classified into: Neural_Networks