Premise: Beijing's hard-line stance on the Dalai Lama has grown considerably tougher in recent years. Ties with Germany nose-dived after Chancellor Angela Merkel met with the Dalai Lama in September 2007, recovering only after Berlin offered a pledge similar to that made by France on Wednesday. Companies alleged to have supported the exiles' activities have been subjected to smear campaigns and boycott calls in China, and an appearance in mainland China by the British rock group Oasis was axed by Beijing last month because guitarist and chief songwriter Noel Gallagher once took part in a free Tibet concert — in 1997.
Hypothesis: China/Germany ties have weakened because of a religious figure