Premise: Mexico's new president, Felipe Calderon, seems to be doing all the right things in cracking down on Mexico's drug traffickers. He's appointed new people to key military and criminal justice positions, deployed troops to quell drug violence, reasserted federal police power, extradited a few major traffickers to the United States, and given a green light to legislation clarifying Mexico's drug laws. But all this provides little reason to hope that Mexico has really turned a corner in its efforts to control the illegal drug trade. For a guide to what's in store, one need only look at past sexenios (the six year terms of Mexican presidents).
Hypothesis: Felipe Calderon will be the president that cripples the drug trade and makes tangible progress in wiping it out.