Hyukkyu/beir-climate-fever huggingface dataset:
Claim: The 'decline' refers to a decline in northern tree-rings, not global temperature, and is openly discussed in papers and the IPCC reports.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Climatic Research Unit documents
evidence: The implications of the decline are discussed in Chapter 2 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, and in Chapter 6 of the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) which describes discussion of various possible reasons for the divergence which does not affect all the trees, and says that there is no consensus about the cause.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climatic Research Unit documents
evidence: Several scientific sources state that the decline being referred to is a decline in tree ring climate proxy metrics, not temperature.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climatic Research Unit documents
evidence: The issues with tree rings had not been hidden, but were extensively discussed in scientific literature and in IPCC reports.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climatic Research Unit email controversy
evidence: This "decline" referred to the well-discussed tree-ring divergence problem, but these two phrases were taken out of context by global warming sceptics, including US Senator Jim Inhofe and former Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin, as though they referred to some decline in measured global temperatures, even though they were written when temperatures were at a record high.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Scientific discussion takes place in journal articles that are peer-reviewed, which scientists subject to assessment every couple of years in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Global warming' and 'climate change' mean different things and have both been used for decades.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: Global warming and climate change are often used interchangeably.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Global warming
evidence: Research in the 1950s suggested that temperatures were increasing, and a 1952 newspaper used the term "climate change".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Both the terms global warming and climate change were used only occasionally until 1975, when Wallace Smith Broecker published a scientific paper on the topic, "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: In technical sources, the term climate change is also used to refer to past and future climate changes that persist for and extended period of time, and includes regional changes as well as global change.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: NOAA, 17 June 2015; IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary 2014, p. 120: "Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The sun has not warmed since 1970 and so cannot be driving global warming.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: It is a major aspect of climate change, and has been demonstrated by the instrumental temperature record which shows global warming of around 1 °C since the pre-industrial period, although the bulk of this (0.9°C) has occurred since 1970.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Since the 1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Multiple independently produced instrumental datasets confirm that the 2009–2018 decade was 0.93 ± 0.07 °C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: "Is the Sun causing global warming?".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The ocean is absorbing massive amounts of CO2, and is becoming more acidic as a result.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Ocean acidification
evidence: Ocean acidification is the ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth's oceans, caused by the uptake of carbon dioxide (CO 2) from the atmosphere.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Ocean acidification
evidence: With the production of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels, oceans are becoming more acidic since CO2 dissolves in water and forms the acidic bicarbonate ion.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Ocean acidification
evidence: The ocean would not become acidic even if it were to absorb the CO2 produced from the combustion of all fossil fuel resources.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Ocean acidification
evidence: It is expected to drop by a further 0.3 to 0.5 pH units (an additional doubling to tripling of today's post-industrial acid concentrations) by 2100 as the oceans absorb more anthropogenic CO 2, the impacts being most severe for coral reefs and the Southern Ocean.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Ocean acidification
evidence: Although the natural absorption of CO 2 by the world's oceans helps mitigate the climatic effects of anthropogenic emissions of CO 2, it is believed that the resulting decrease in pH will have negative consequences, primarily for oceanic calcifying organisms.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: Monckton used the IPCC equation in an inappropriate manner.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Christopher Monckton, 3rd Viscount Monckton of Brenchley
evidence: Since 2002 Monckton has had several newspaper articles published critical of the IPCC and current scientific consensus on climate change.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: General circulation model
evidence: The 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report F igure 9.3 shows the global mean response of 19 different coupled models to an idealised experiment in which emissions increased at 1% per year.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: "Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 'reasons for concern'".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Radiative forcing
evidence: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 report defines radiative forcings as: "Radiative forcing is a measure of the influence a factor has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the Earth-atmosphere system and is an index of the importance of the factor as a potential climate change mechanism.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Radiative forcing
evidence: While recently a suggests a significant revision of methane IPCC formula.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Theory, models and direct measurement confirm CO2 is currently the main driver of climate change.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Climate change feedback
evidence: Following Le Chatelier's principle, the chemical equilibrium of the Earth's carbon cycle will shift in response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: It is a major aspect of climate change and has been demonstrated by direct temperature measurements and by measurements of various effects of the warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: In 1896, he published the first climate model of its kind, showing that halving of CO 2 could have produced the drop in temperature initiating the ice age.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Scientists have determined that the major factors causing the current climate change are greenhouse gases, land use changes, and aerosols and soot.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Scientific modelling
evidence: Models are typically used when it is either impossible or impractical to create experimental conditions in which scientists can directly measure outcomes.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: If every nation agrees to limit CO2 emissions, we can achieve significant cuts on a global scale.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference
evidence: To cut carbon emissions by 25% below 2000 levels by 2020 if the world agrees to an ambitious global deal to stabilise levels of CO2e to 450 ppm or lower.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference
evidence: To reduce emissions between 10% to 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 if a global agreement is secured that limits carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) to 450 ppm and temperature increases to 2 °C, effective rules on forestry, and New Zealand having access to international carbon markets.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate change mitigation
evidence: Cost-effective 2 °C scenarios project annual global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before the year 2020, with deep cuts in emissions thereafter, leading to a reduction in 2050 of 41% compared to 1990 levels.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate change mitigation
evidence: "Cut Global Emissions by 7.6 Percent Every Year for Next Decade to Meet 1.5°C Paris Target - UN Report".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Paris Agreement
evidence: To limit global temperature rise to 1.5 °C, the global annual emission reduction needed is 7.6% emissions reduction every year between 2020 and 2030.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: The actual data show high northern latitudes are warmer today than in 1940.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: It is, however, expected that future warming will follow a similar geographical pattern to that seen already, with greatest warming over land and high northern latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Eocene
evidence: The polar stratospheric clouds had a warming effect on the poles, increasing temperatures by up to 20 °C in the winter months.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Multiple independently produced instrumental datasets confirm that the 2009–2018 decade was 0.93 ± 0.07 °C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: The period from 1983 to 2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere, where such assessment is possible (medium confidence).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Physical impacts of climate change
evidence: Changes in regional climate are expected to include greater warming over land, with most warming at high northern latitudes, and least warming over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: When you account for all of the costs associated with burning coal and other fossil fuels, like air pollution and health effects, in reality they are significantly more expensive than most renewable energy sources.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Air pollution
evidence: Even in the areas with relatively low levels of air pollution, public health effects can be significant and costly, since a large number of people breathe in such pollutants.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Fossil fuel
evidence: Fossil fuel prices generally are below their actual costs, or their "efficient prices," when economic externalities, such as the costs of air pollution and global climate destruction, are taken into account.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Fossil fuel
evidence: Artificial gasolines and other renewable energy sources currently require more expensive production and processing technologies than conventional petroleum reserves, but may become economically viable in the near future.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Nuclear power
evidence: Today's primary sources of energy are mainly non-renewable: natural gas, oil, coal, peat, and conventional nuclear power.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Renewable energy
evidence: It would also reduce environmental pollution such as air pollution caused by burning of fossil fuels and improve public health, reduce premature mortalities due to pollution and save associated health costs that amount to several hundred billion dollars annually only in the United States.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Global sea level data shows that sea level rise has been increasing since 1880 while future sea level rise predictions are based on physics, not statistics.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Using different satellites from 1992 to 2017 shows melt is increasing significantly over this period.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: For instance, Mercer published a study in 1978 predicting that anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming and its potential effects on climate in the 21st century could cause a sea level rise of around 5 metres (16 ft) from melting of the West Antarctic ice-sheet alone.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: This network was used, in combination with satellite altimeter data, to establish that global mean sea-level rose 19.5 cm (7.7 in) between 1870 and 2004 at an average rate of about 1.44 mm/yr (1.7 mm/yr during the 20th century).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: This is an important confirmation of climate change simulations which predicted that sea level rise would accelerate in response to global warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: As climate research into past and present sea levels leads to improved computer models, projections have consistently increased.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Humans are small but powerful, and human CO2 emissions are causing global warming.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: Since the Industrial Revolution anthropogenic emissions – primarily from use of fossil fuels and deforestation – have rapidly increased its concentration in the atmosphere, leading to global warming.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs, and nitrous oxide.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: The largest human influence has been the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: Cumulative anthropogenic (i.e., human-emitted) emissions of CO 2 from fossil fuel use are a major cause of global warming, and give some indication of which countries have contributed most to human-induced climate change.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: Lindzen and Choi’s paper is viewed as unacceptably flawed by other climate scientists.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: Judith Curry has said "This is a completely unconvincing analysis", whereas Naomi Oreskes said that the paper shows "the vast majority of working [climate] research scientists are in agreement [on climate change]... Those who don't agree, are, unfortunately—and this is hard to say without sounding elitist—mostly either not actually climate researchers or not very productive researchers."
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Richard Lindzen
evidence: It received considerable media coverage; 22 then- current or retired MIT professors promptly issued an open letter addressed to Trump saying that Lindzen’s petition doesn’t represent their views or those of the vast majority of other climate scientists.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Richard Lindzen
evidence: This claim was criticized by climatologist Gavin Schmidt, Director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who notes the more generally-accepted understanding of the effects of the Iris effect and cites empirical cases where large and relatively rapid changes in the climate such as El Niño events, the Ultra-Plinian eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, and recent trends in global temperature and water vapor levels to show that, as predicted in the generally-accepted view, water vapor increases as the temperature increases, and decreases as temperatures decrease.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Richard Lindzen
evidence: Lindzen and Choi revised their paper and submitted it to PNAS.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Richard Lindzen
evidence: Andrew Dessler published a paper which found errors in Lindzen and Choi 2011, and concluded that the observations it had presented "are not in fundamental disagreement with mainstream climate models, nor do they provide evidence that clouds are causing climate change.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: The iris hypothesis has not withstood the test of time - subsequent research
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Confirmation bias
evidence: Wason accepted falsificationism, according to which a scientific test of a hypothesis is a serious attempt to falsify it.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event
evidence: Current research cannot ascertain whether the extinctions occurred prior to, or during, the boundary interval.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: "A scientific hypothesis is tested to absolute destruction, but medicine can't wait.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Type I and type II errors
evidence: Mathematics portal Binary classification Detection theory Egon Pearson Ethics in mathematics False positive paradox Family-wise error rate Information retrieval performance measures Neyman–Pearson lemma Null hypothesis Probability of a hypothesis for Bayesian inference Precision and recall Prosecutor's fallacy Prozone phenomenon Receiver operating characteristic Sensitivity and specificity Statisticians' and engineers' cross-reference of statistical terms Testing hypotheses suggested by the data Type III error "Explorable - Think Outside The Box - Research, Experiments, Psychology, Self-Help".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Type I and type II errors
evidence: The results of such testing determine whether a particular set of results agrees reasonably (or does not agree) with the speculated hypothesis.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: A large amount of warming is delayed, and if we don’t act now we could pass tipping points.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Climate engineering
evidence: Climate change may cross tipping points where elements of the climate system may 'tip' from one stable state to another stable state, much like a glass tipping over.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: A concern is that self-reinforcing feedbacks will lead to a tipping point, where global temperatures transition to a hothouse climate state even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced or eliminated.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Both the Greenland ice sheet and Antarctica have tipping points for warming levels that could be reached before the end of the 21st century.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Quantifying the exact temperature change for which this tipping point is crossed remains controversial.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: "A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Jim Hansen had several possible scenarios; his mid-level scenario B was right.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: James Hansen
evidence: They described the intermediate scenario as the most likely, and that real-world greenhouse gas forcing had been closest to this scenario.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: In 2000 Hansen authored a paper called "Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario" in which he presented a more optimistic way of dealing with global warming, focusing on non-CO2 gases and black carbon in the short run, giving more time to make reductions in fossil fuel emissions.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: They described a business-as-usual scenario, which has greenhouse gases growing at approximately 2% per year; and an alternate scenario, in which greenhouse gases concentrations decline.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: An alternate scenario would keep the warming to below this if climate sensitivity were below 3 °C for doubled CO 2.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scenario planning
evidence: How do we know if we have the right scenarios?
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Volcanoes have had no warming effect in recent global warming - if anything, a cooling effect.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Greenhouse effect
evidence: The greenhouse effect is the process by which radiation from a planet's atmosphere warms the planet's surface to a temperature above what it would be without this atmosphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: The reflection of energy into space resulted in a global cooling, triggering the Pleistocene Ice Age.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Michael E. Mann
evidence: This cooling had contributed towards the recent Global warming hiatus in surface temperatures, and would change to enhanced surface warming in the next phase of the oscillation.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Nuclear winter
evidence: Impact winter Laki, 1783 eruption of an Icelandic volcano which produced continentally localized cooling for 1–2 years.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Volcano
evidence: The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora created global climate anomalies that became known as the "Year Without a Summer" because of the effect on North American and European weather.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Arctic sea ice has shrunk by an area equal to Western Australia, and summer or multi-year sea ice might be all gone within a decade.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Arctic Ocean
evidence: Research shows that the Arctic may become ice-free in the summer for the first time in human history by 2040.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Arctic Ocean
evidence: The summer shrinking of the ice has been quoted at 50%.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: Sometime during the 21st century, sea ice may effectively cease to exist during the summer.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: "Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap during some of the summer months will be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years," Gore said.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Arctic
evidence: About half of the analyzed models show near-complete to complete sea ice loss in September by the year 2100.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The claim sea level isn’t rising is based on blatantly doctored graphs contradicted by observations.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
evidence: The mid-points of the sea level rise estimates are within ±10% of those from the TAR; but the range has narrowed.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Past sea level
evidence: The current rise in sea level observed from tide gauges, of about 1.8 mm/yr, is within the estimate range from the combination of factors above, but active research continues in this field.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Semi-empirical sea level models rely on statistical techniques, using relationships between observed (contributions to) global mean sea level and global mean temperature.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: For instance, Mercer published a study in 1978 predicting that anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming and its potential effects on climate in the 21st century could cause a sea level rise of around 5 metres (16 ft) from melting of the West Antarctic ice-sheet alone.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea-level curve
evidence: Their sea-level curve was based on seismic and biostratigraphic data accumulated during petroleum exploration.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The IPCC simply updated their temperature history graphs to show the best data available at the time.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Hockey stick controversy
evidence: This decadal summer temperature reconstruction, together with a separate curve plotting instrumental thermometer data from the 1850s onwards, was featured as Figure 3.20 in the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR) of 1996.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
evidence: They judge that global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last 100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
evidence: This graph extended the similar graph in Figure 3.20 from the IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995, and differed from a schematic in the first assessment report that lacked temperature units, but appeared to depict larger global temperature variations over the past 1000 years, and higher temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period than the mid 20th century.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
evidence: These studies were widely presented as demonstrating that the current warming period is exceptional in comparison to temperatures between 1000 and 1900, and the MBH99 based graph featured in publicity.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Temperature record of the past 1000 years
evidence: This was the basis of a "schematic diagram" featured in the IPCC First Assessment Report beside cautions that the medieval warming might not have been global.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: An independent inquiry found CRU is a small research unit with limited resources and their rigour and honesty are not in doubt.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Climatic Research Unit email controversy
evidence: The Science and Technology Select Committee inquiry reported on 31 March 2010 that it had found that "the scientific reputation of Professor Jones and CRU remains intact".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climatic Research Unit email controversy
evidence: Describing its report as "hugely positive", he stated that "it is especially important that, despite a deluge of allegations and smears against the CRU, this independent group of utterly reputable scientists have concluded that there was no evidence of any scientific malpractice."
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climatic Research Unit email controversy
evidence: The "rigour and honesty" of the scientists at the Climatic Research Unit were found not to be in doubt.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climatic Research Unit email controversy
evidence: The panel did not seek to evaluate the science itself, but rather whether "the conclusions [reached by the CRU] represented an honest and scientifically justified interpretation of the data".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Rigour
evidence: Intellectual rigour is a subset of intellectual honesty—a practice of thought in which ones convictions are kept in proportion to valid evidence.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Benny Peiser, the Oreskes critic, retracted his criticism.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Benny Peiser
evidence: One of his main points of criticism is that the vast majority of the abstracts referred to in the study do not mention anthropogenic climate change, and only 13 of the 928 abstracts explicitly endorse what Oreskes called the "consensus view".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Benny Peiser
evidence: Peiser later admitted that it was a mistake to include one of the papers in his survey and said that his main criticism of Oreskes' essay its "claim of a unanimous consensus on anthropogenic global warming (APG) (as opposed to a majority consensus) is tenuous" and that it still was valid.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Benny Peiser
evidence: In a 2006, letter to Australia's Media Watch, Peiser explained that he had retracted 97% of his original critique and elaborated on some of his comments: "I do not think anyone is questioning that we are in a period of global warming.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Benny Peiser
evidence: Well when we first contacted him two weeks ago he told us..." "Only [a] few abstracts explicitly reject or doubt the AGW (anthropogenic global warming) consensus which is why I have publicly withdrawn this point of my critique."
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Naomi Oreskes
evidence: Oreskes' 2004 "Beyond the Ivory Tower" essay was challenged by British social anthropologist Benny Peiser, who eventually retracted his challenge, admitting he had only found one paper rejecting anthropogenic climate change, published by American Association of Petroleum Geologists (see also Benny Peiser § Objections to Oreskes essay).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: Trenberth is talking about the details of energy flow, not whether global warming is happening.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: El Niño–Southern Oscillation
evidence: The ENSO is considered to be a potential tipping element in Earth's climate and, under the global warming, can enhance or alternate regional climate extreme events through a strengthened teleconnection.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: El Niño–Southern Oscillation
evidence: "Shifts in ENSO coupling processes under global warming".
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Global warming
evidence: There has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, so it cannot be responsible for the current warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Kevin E. Trenberth
evidence: In an interview, Trenberth said, "The planet is warming", but "the warmth just isn't being manifested at the surface."
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Kevin E. Trenberth
evidence: In a 2009 paper, "An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy", Trenberth discussed the distribution of heat and how it was affected by climate forcing, including greenhouse gas changes.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Melting ice leads to more sunlight being absorbed by water, thus heating the Arctic.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
evidence: The Arctic gradually loses snow and ice, bare rock and water absorb more and more of the sun's energy, making the Arctic even warmer.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: Arctic Sea ice melts in the summer, and more of the sun is being absorbed by the ocean.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: The fast rate of the sea ice melting is resulting in the oceans absorbing and heating up the Arctic.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate change in the Arctic
evidence: The primary cause of this phenomenon is ice-albedo feedback, where by melting ice uncovers darker land or ocean beneath, which then absorbs more sunlight, causing more heating.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea level rise.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Temperature errors in the Great Lakes region are not used in any global temperature records.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Lake Superior
evidence: [citation needed] This variation in temperature makes the lake seasonally stratigraphic.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Little Ice Age
evidence: The Siple Dome (SD) had a climate event with an onset time that is coincident with that of the Little Ice Age in the North Atlantic based on a correlation with the GISP2 record.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Little Ice Age
evidence: This trend could be extrapolated to continue into the future, possibly leading to a full ice age, but the twentieth-century instrumental temperature record shows a sudden reversal of this trend, with a rise in global temperatures attributed to greenhouse gas emissions.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Permafrost
evidence: This is evident from temperature measurements in boreholes in North America and Europe.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Precipitation
evidence: As a result, the modern global record of precipitation largely depends on satellite observations.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Multiple lines of evidence make it very clear that the rise in atmospheric CO2 is due to human emissions.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 were equivalent to 49 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (using the most recent global warming potentials over 100 years from the AR5 report).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: The sharp acceleration in CO 2 emissions since 2000 to more than a 3% increase per year (more than 2 ppm per year) from 1.1% per year during the 1990s is attributable to the lapse of formerly declining trends in carbon intensity of both developing and developed nations.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: While ‘climate change’ can be due to natural forces or human activity, there is now substantial evidence to indicate that human activity – and specifically increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions – is a key factor in the pace and extent of global temperature increases.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: That humans are causing the rise in atmospheric CO2 is confirmed by multiple isotopic analyses.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
evidence: While CO 2 absorption and release is always happening as a result of natural processes, the recent rise in CO 2 levels in the atmosphere is known to be mainly due to human (anthropogenic) activity.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: Increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone have correspondingly strengthened their absorption and emission of infrared radiation, causing the rise in average global temperature since the mid-20th century.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: Analysis of carbon isotopes in atmospheric CO 2 shows that the recent observed CO 2 increase cannot have come from the oceans, volcanoes, or the biosphere, and thus is not a response to rising temperatures as would be required if the same processes creating past lags were active now.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations have led to an increase in dissolved CO2, which causes ocean acidification.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 were equivalent to 49 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (using the most recent global warming potentials over 100 years from the AR5 report).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: CO2 levels are rising so fast that unless we decrease emissions, global warming will accelerate this century.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: Since the Industrial Revolution anthropogenic emissions – primarily from use of fossil fuels and deforestation – have rapidly increased its concentration in the atmosphere, leading to global warming.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Between 1993 and 2017, the global mean sea level rose on average by 3.1 ± 0.3 mm per year, with an acceleration detected as well.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: In some scenarios emissions continue to rise over the century, while others have reduced emissions.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: To keep warming below 2 °C, more stringent emission reductions in the near-term would allow for less rapid reductions after 2030.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: Peer-reviewed research, physics, and math all tell us that a grand solar minimum would have no more than a 0.3°C cooling effect, barely enough to put a dent in human-caused global warming.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS) in 2007, issued a Statement on Environment and Sustainable Growth: As reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human-produced emission of greenhouse gases and this warming will continue unabated if present anthropogenic emissions continue or, worse, expand without control.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Human-caused increases in greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the observed global average surface warming of roughly 0.8 °C (1.5 °F) over the past 140 years.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), and secondarily the clearing of land, have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and other heat-trapping ("greenhouse") gases in the atmosphere...There is international scientific consensus that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Preventing global warming is relatively cheap; business-as-usual will cause accelerating climate damage costs that economists struggle to even estimate.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Climate change mitigation
evidence: Many economists estimate the cost of climate change mitigation at between 1% and 2% of GDP.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: Researchers have warned that current economic modeling may seriously underestimate the impact of potentially catastrophic climate change and point to the need for new models that give a more accurate picture of potential damages.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: Global losses reveal rapidly rising costs due to extreme weather-related events since the 1970s.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: The total economic impacts from climate change are difficult to estimate.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: "Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The global trend is calculated from hundreds of CO2 measuring stations and confirmed by satellites.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
evidence: AIRS aboard NASA's Aqua satellite makes global XCO2 measurements and was launched shortly after ENVISAT in 2012.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
evidence: More recent satellites have significantly improved the data density and precision of global measurements.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global dimming
evidence: The brightening trend is corroborated by other data, including satellite analyses.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: More precise data gathered from satellite radar measurements reveal an accelerating rise of 7.5 cm (3.0 in) from 1993 to 2017, which is a trend of roughly 30 cm (12 in) per century.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: This network was used, in combination with satellite altimeter data, to establish that global mean sea-level rose 19.5 cm (7.7 in) between 1870 and 2004 at an average rate of about 1.44 mm/yr (1.7 mm/yr during the 20th century).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The CERN CLOUD experiment only tested one-third of one out of four requirements necessary to blame global warming on cosmic rays, and two of the other requirements have already failed.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Attribution of recent climate change
evidence: (2009): The CLOUD experiments at CERN are interesting research but do not provide conclusive evidence that cosmic rays can serve as a major source of cloud seeding.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: CLOUD experiment
evidence: This result does not support the hypothesis that cosmic rays significantly affect climate, although a CERN press release states that neither does it "rule out a role for cosmic radiation" in climate.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: CLOUD experiment
evidence: Although its design is optimised to address the cosmic ray question, (as posed by Henrik Svensmark and colleagues in 1997) CLOUD allows as well to measure aerosol nucleation and growth under controlled laboratory conditions.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: CLOUD experiment
evidence: Although they observe that a fraction of cloud nuclei is effectively produced by ionisation due to the interaction of cosmic rays with the constituents of Earth atmosphere, this process is insufficient to attribute all of the present climate modifications to the fluctuations of the cosmic rays intensity modulated by changes in the solar activity and Earth magnetosphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate change (general concept)
evidence: To test the hypothesis, CERN designed the CLOUD experiment, which showed the effect of cosmic rays is too weak to influence climate noticeably.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Venus very likely underwent a runaway or ‘moist’ greenhouse phase earlier in its history, and today is kept hot by a dense CO2 atmosphere.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Greenhouse effect
evidence: The planet Venus experienced runaway greenhouse effect, resulting in an atmosphere which is 96% carbon dioxide, with surface atmospheric pressure roughly the same as found 900 m (3,000 ft) underwater on Earth.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Venus
evidence: It may have had water oceans in the past, but these would have vaporized as the temperature rose due to a runaway greenhouse effect.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Venus
evidence: Conditions on the Venusian surface differ radically from those on Earth because its dense atmosphere is 96.5% carbon dioxide, with most of the remaining 3.5% being nitrogen.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Venus
evidence: The CO 2-rich atmosphere generates the strongest greenhouse effect in the Solar System, creating surface temperatures of at least 735 K (462 °C; 864 °F).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Venus
evidence: Studies have suggested that billions of years ago, Venus's atmosphere was much more like the one surrounding Earth, and that there may have been substantial quantities of liquid water on the surface, but after a period of 600 million to several billion years, a runaway greenhouse effect was caused by the evaporation of that original water, which generated a critical level of greenhouse gases in its atmosphere.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: If anyone claims to be part of the 97 percent, it means they disagree with the contrarian argument that humans are having a minimal impact on global warming.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Climate change denial
evidence: "Climate change skepticism" and "climate change denial" refer to denial, dismissal or unwarranted doubt of the scientific consensus on the rate and extent of global warming, its significance, or its connection to human behavior, in whole or in part.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate change denial
evidence: Although the figure is less than in earlier polls, 39 percent of those asked say there is "a lot of disagreement among climate scientists" on the basic question of whether the planet is warming; 42 percent say there is a lot of disagreement that human activities are a major cause of global warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate change denial
evidence: Among papers expressing a position on AGW, an overwhelming percentage (97.2% based on self-ratings, 97.1% based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: The authors found that 3974 of the abstracts expressed a position on anthropogenic global warming, and that 97.1% of those endorsed the consensus that humans are causing global warming.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: In a 2019 CBS poll, 64% of the US population said that climate change is a "crisis" or a "serious problem", with 44% saying human activity was a significant contributor.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Thousands of coral atolls have "drowned" when unable to grow fast enough to survive at sea level.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Kiribati
evidence: "Islands disappear under rising seas".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Maldives
evidence: The Maldives consists of 1,192 coral islands grouped in a double chain of 26 atolls, along the north-south direction, spread over roughly 90,000 square kilometres (35,000 sq mi), making this one of the world's most dispersed countries.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Maldives
evidence: More than 80 per cent of the country's land is composed of coral islands which rise less than one metre above sea level.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Micronesia
evidence: When the volcano sinks back down into the sea, the coral continues to grow, keeping the reef at or above water level.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Tuvalu
evidence: The atolls have shown resilience to gradual sea-level rise, with atolls and reef islands being able to grow under current climate conditions by generating sufficient sand and coral debris that accumulates and gets dumped on the islands during cyclones.
evidence_label: REFUTES