Hyukkyu/beir-climate-fever huggingface dataset:
Claim: In a study last year, Robert M. DeConto of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and David Pollard of Pennsylvania State University used their computer model to predict what would happen if emissions were reduced sharply over the next few decades, in line with international climate goals.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Emissions trading
evidence: These studies used mathematical models of several cities and their emission sources in order to compare the cost and effectiveness of various control strategies.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Decision 1/CP.16, paragraph 4, in UNFCCC: Cancun 2010: "deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to science, and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above preindustrial levels".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: The 10th Emissions Gap Report issued by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) predicts that if emissions continue to increase at the same rate as they have in 2010–2020, global temperatures would rise by as much as 4° by 2100.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: University of Massachusetts Amherst
evidence: He and colleagues at the Political Economy Research Institute have developed a plan for national recovery that shows, for example, that investing in clean energy (wind power, solar, and biofuels) will create about three times as many good-paying jobs than conventional projects will, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on foreign oil.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Under the most ambitious scenarios, they found a strong likelihood that Antarctica would remain fairly stable.”
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Antarctica
evidence: The sheet has been of recent concern because of the small possibility of its collapse.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Global warming
evidence: Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
evidence: Projections based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios suggest warming over the 21st century at a more rapid rate than that experienced for at least the last 10,000 years.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
evidence: Pledges made as part of the Cancún Agreements are broadly consistent with cost-effective scenarios that give a "likely" chance (66-100% probability) of limiting global warming (in 2100) to below 3 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
evidence: (2007) stated that the SRES represented "a substantial advance from prior scenarios".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The Alaskan tundra is warming so quickly it has become a net emitter of carbon dioxide ahead of schedule, a new study finds
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Arctic
evidence: The current Arctic warming is leading to ancient carbon being released from thawing permafrost, leading to methane and carbon dioxide production by micro-organisms.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
evidence: The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary atmosphere warms the planet's surface beyond the temperature it would have in the absence of its atmosphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Coal
evidence: The largest and most long term effect of coal use is the release of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that causes climate change and global warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Fossil fuel power station
evidence: Fossil fueled power stations are major emitters of carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas which is a major contributor to global warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: One potential source of abrupt climate change would be the rapid release of methane and carbon dioxide from permafrost, which would amplify global warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Melting permafrost can release not just CO2, but also methane, a much stronger heat-trapping gas.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Permafrost
evidence: Permafrost and clathrates degrade on warming, and thus, large releases of methane from these sources may arise as a result of global warming.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Permafrost
evidence: It is thought that permafrost thawing could exacerbate global warming by releasing methane and other hydrocarbons, which are powerful greenhouse gases.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Permafrost
evidence: It also contains gas hydrates in places, which are a "potential abundant source of energy" but may also destabilize as subsea permafrost warms and thaws, producing large amounts of methane gas, which is a potent greenhouse gas.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Permafrost
evidence: The consequence is thawing soil, which may be weaker, and release of methane, which contributes to an increased rate of global warming as part of a feedback loop.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Tundra
evidence: When the permafrost melts, it releases carbon in the form of carbon dioxide and methane, both of which are greenhouse gases.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: Data from NOAA’s Barrow Alaska station ‘indicate that October through December emissions of CO2 from surrounding tundra increased by 73 percent since 1975, supporting the view that rising temperatures have made Arctic ecosystems a net source of CO2.’”
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: Increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone have correspondingly strengthened their absorption and emission of infrared radiation, causing the rise in average global temperature since the mid-20th century.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: The spread of land plants is thought to have reduced CO 2 concentrations during the late Devonian, and plant activities as both sources and sinks of CO 2 have since been important in providing stabilising feedbacks.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: The seven sources of CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion are (with percentage contributions for 2000–2004): Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide (N 2O) and three groups of fluorinated gases (sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs)) are the major anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and are regulated under the Kyoto Protocol international treaty, which came into force in 2005.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: Between the period 1970 to 2004, greenhouse gas emissions (measured in CO 2-equivalent) increased at an average rate of 1.6% per year, with CO 2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels growing at a rate of 1.9% per year.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: The sharp acceleration in CO 2 emissions since 2000 to more than a 3% increase per year (more than 2 ppm per year) from 1.1% per year during the 1990s is attributable to the lapse of formerly declining trends in carbon intensity of both developing and developed nations.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: ever since December temperatures in the Arctic have consistently been lower than minus 20 C
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Arctic Ocean
evidence: As recently as 55 million years ago, during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, the region reached an average annual temperature of 10–20 °C (50–68 °F).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Arctic
evidence: Another definition of the Arctic is the region where the average temperature for the warmest month (July) is below 10 °C (50 °F); the northernmost tree line roughly follows the isotherm at the boundary of this region.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Arctic
evidence: Average winter temperatures can go as low as −40 °C (−40 °F), and the coldest recorded temperature is approximately −68 °C (−90 °F).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: North Pole
evidence: It was estimated that the temperature at the North Pole was between 30 and 35 °F (−1 and 2 °C) during the storm.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: North Pole
evidence: The highest temperature yet recorded is 13 °C (55 °F), much warmer than the South Pole's record high of only −12.3 °C (9.9 °F).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: This means the global temperature trend has now shown no further warming for 19 years
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: Multiple independently produced instrumental datasets confirm that the 2009–2018 decade was 0.93 ± 0.07 °C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Global warming
evidence: Currently, surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Human-caused increases in greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the observed global average surface warming of roughly 0.8 °C (1.5 °F) over the past 140 years.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Global warming in this case was indicated by an increase of 0.75 degrees in average global temperatures over the last 100 years.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7°C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last 30 years.
evidence_label: REFUTES
Claim: In April the extent of Arctic sea ice was back to where it was in April 13 years ago
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Arctic Ocean
evidence: Estimates vary for when the last time the Arctic was ice-free: 65 million years ago when fossils indicate that plants existed there to as recently as 5,500 years ago; ice and ocean cores going back 8,000 years to the last warm period or 125,000 during the last intraglacial period.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: The last cold episode of the last glacial period ended about 10,000 years ago.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Norwegian Sea
evidence: The Norwegian Sea (Norwegian: Norskehavet) is a marginal sea in the Arctic Ocean, northwest of Norway between the North Sea and the Greenland Sea, adjoining the Barents Sea to the northeast.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Norwegian Sea
evidence: Sea ice is a common problem in the Arctic seas, but ice-free conditions along the entire northern route were observed at the end of August 2008.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea
evidence: Increased melting of Arctic ice since 2007 enables ships to travel the Northwest Passage for some weeks in summertime, avoiding the longer routes via the Suez Canal or the Panama Canal.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: He said: ‘We have had five warming cycles since about 900AD, each followed by a dramatic cooling cycle.’
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Ice age
evidence: The reflection of energy into space resulted in a global cooling, triggering the Pleistocene Ice Age.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: John D. Hamaker
evidence: In Paul Kelbie's article Remineralization Might Save Us From Global Warming, in The Independent, he wrote that since the last ice age, three million years ago, the Earth has gone through 25 glaciations, each lasting about 90,000 years, and that we are now 10,800 years into an interglacial – a hiatus between ice–ages.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Little Ice Age
evidence: In the North Atlantic, sediments accumulated since the end of the last ice age, nearly 12,000 years ago, show regular increases in the amount of coarse sediment grains deposited from icebergs melting in the now open ocean, indicating a series of 1–2 °C (2–4 °F) cooling events recurring every 1,500 years or so.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Little Ice Age
evidence: The Spörer Minimum has also been identified with a significant cooling period between 1460 and 1550.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Little Ice Age
evidence: This may have caused the initial cooling, and the 1452–53 eruption of Kuwae in Vanuatu triggered a second pulse of cooling.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Sea ice has diminished much faster than scientists and climate models anticipated.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: A 2007 study found the decline to be "faster than forecasted" by model simulations.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: However, these models do tend to underestimate the rate of sea ice loss since 2007.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: Since 1979, satellite records indicate the decline in summer sea ice coverage has been about 13% per decade.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Past models have underestimated the rate of Arctic shrinkage and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: However scientists have found that ice is being lost, and at an accelerating rate.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: “Arctic land stores about twice as much carbon as the atmosphere.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Atmospheric methane
evidence: Permafrost contains almost twice as much carbon as is present in the atmosphere.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate change feedback
evidence: The carbon currently stored in peatlands (390–455 gigatonnes, one-third of the total land-based carbon store) is over half the amount of carbon already in the atmosphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Mars
evidence: The atmosphere of Mars consists of about 96% carbon dioxide, 1.93% argon and 1.89% nitrogen along with traces of oxygen and water.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Permafrost
evidence: The amount of carbon sequestered in permafrost is four times the carbon that has been released to the atmosphere due to human activities in modern time.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sperm whale
evidence: By reducing the abundance of sperm whales in the Southern Ocean, whaling has resulted in an extra 2 million tonnes of carbon remaining in the atmosphere each year.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The gas builds up in the soil, forming mounds called ‘pingoes.’
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Effigy Mounds National Monument
evidence: However, mounds in the shape of mammals, birds, or reptiles, known as effigies, apparently were constructed primarily by peoples in what is now known as southern Wisconsin, northeast Iowa, and small parts of Minnesota and Illinois.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Soil
evidence: At the next larger scale, soil structures called peds or more commonly soil aggregates are created from the soil separates when iron oxides, carbonates, clay, silica and humus, coat particles and cause them to adhere into larger, relatively stable secondary structures.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Soil
evidence: The clumping of the soil textural components of sand, silt and clay causes aggregates to form and the further association of those aggregates into larger units creates soil structures called peds (a contraction of the word pedolith).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Soil
evidence: At the same time, root hairs and fungal hyphae create microscopic tunnels that break up peds.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Soil
evidence: Phosphorus is largely immobile in the soil and is not leached but actually builds up in the surface layer if not cropped.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The extreme cycles of dry and wet weather appear to have been intensifying over the last three decades.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: In the last 30–40 years, heat waves with high humidity have become more frequent and severe.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: El Niño–Southern Oscillation
evidence: The western side of the equatorial Pacific is characterized by warm, wet, low-pressure weather as the collected moisture is dumped in the form of typhoons and thunderstorms.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Since the 1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Little Ice Age
evidence: Disease tends to intensify under the same conditions that unemployment and economic difficulties arise: prolonged, cold, dry seasons.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sahara
evidence: The climate of the Sahara has undergone enormous variations between wet and dry over the last few hundred thousand years, believed to be caused by long-term changes in the North African climate cycle that alters the path of the North African Monsoon – usually southward.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: “Warm weather worsened the most recent five-year drought, which included the driest four-year period on record in terms of statewide precipitation.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: 2006 European heat wave
evidence: The Environment Agency claimed that the UK may have had the most severe drought in 100 years.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: 2006 European heat wave
evidence: Despite the low rainfall, drought was not an issue in Ireland.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: 2006 European heat wave
evidence: The Netherlands also had to deal with extreme drought in June and July.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate change in Australia
evidence: He says that the drought in Australia is already 8 years long.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Drought in the United Kingdom
evidence: A significant hydrological drought occurred in the United Kingdom between 1995 and 1998, when the warm, dry summers were followed by dry, cool winters.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Not everyone is convinced that the evidence is in that climate change is responsible for extreme swings between drought and deluge.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Physical impacts of climate change
evidence: Scientists have found evidence that increased evaporation could result in more extreme weather as global warming progresses.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Network of African Science Academies: "A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change."
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Rises in temperature will have complex and frequently localised effects on weather, but an overall increase in extreme weather conditions and changes in precipitation patterns are probable, resulting in flooding and drought.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Health impacts of climate change include the direct impacts of extreme events such as storms, floods, heatwaves and fires and the indirect effects of longer-term changes, such as drought, changes to the food and water supply, resource conflicts and population shifts.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: ‘The dry periods are drier and the wet periods are wetter,’ said Jeffrey Mount, a water expert and senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: In other words, regions which are dry at present will in general become even drier, while regions that are currently wet will in general become even wetter.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Kalahari Desert
evidence: In certain areas where the climate is drier, it becomes a true semi-desert with ground not entirely covered by vegetation: "open" as opposed to "closed" vegetation.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Physical impacts of climate change
evidence: In other words, regions which are dry at present will generally become even drier, while regions that are currently wet will generally become even wetter.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Water cycle
evidence: Will the wet get wetter and the dry drier?
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Wetland
evidence: Wetlands can be dry during the dry season and abnormally dry periods during the wet season, but under normal environmental conditions the soils in a wetland will be saturated to the surface or inundated such that the soils become anaerobic, and those conditions will persist through the wet portion of the growing season.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The unlikely scenarios are now, all of a sudden, becoming more probable than they once were thought to be,’ says Sweet.”
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Anglo-Saxon settlement of Britain
evidence: In recent decades, a few specialists have continued to support this interpretation, and Peter Schrijver has said that 'to a large extent, it is linguistics that is responsible for thinking in terms of drastic scenarios' about demographic change in late Roman Britain.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Anglo-Saxon settlement of Britain
evidence: Many feasible scenarios can be constructed to account for evidence.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Anglo-Saxon settlement of Britain
evidence: Therefore, scenarios that are not justified by other evidence or are created to account for the historical evidence have not been universally accepted.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Indo-Aryan migration
evidence: The reverse possibility, that a small group broke off and wandered from India into Western Asia is readily dismissed as an improbably long migration, again without the least bit of evidence.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: July Crisis
evidence: On the contrary, there are reasons to believe that this is altogether out of the question."
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: many of south Florida’s drainage systems and seawalls are no longer enough
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Beach nourishment
evidence: The restoration was complicated by the presence of old seawalls, groins, piles of rocks and other structures.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Beach nourishment
evidence: The structural alternative involves constructing a seawall, revetment, groyne or breakwater.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Hurricane Donna
evidence: Heavy rains and poor drainage in some areas flooded basements, lawns, and streets.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Lake Worth Beach, Florida
evidence: As in the flatwoods, these soils are poorly drained for many purposes unless drainage systems are installed.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Seawall
evidence: A seawall (or sea wall) is a form of coastal defense constructed where the sea, and associated coastal processes, impact directly upon the landforms of the coast.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: “Sea level rise is global.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Since at least the start of the 20th century, the average global sea level has been rising.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: With continued melt and retreat they contribute to raising global sea levels.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Sea ice melt contributes very slightly to global sea level rise.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: "One of the most striking trends – over a century of global-average sea level change".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: "20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: While there has been a mean rise of a little more than 3mm per year worldwide since the 1990s, in the last decade, the NOAA Virginia Key tide gauge just south of Miami Beach has measured a 9mm rise annually.”
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: Between 1993 and 2017, the global mean sea level rose on average by 3.1 ± 0.3 mm per year, with an acceleration detected as well.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: This could mean rapid sea level rise of up to 19 mm (0.75 in) per year by the end of the century.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Current rates of sea level rise from satellite altimetry have been estimated to be 3.0 ± 0.4 millimetres (0.118 ± 0.016 in) per year for the period 1993–2017.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: This network was used, in combination with satellite altimeter data, to establish that global mean sea-level rose 19.5 cm (7.7 in) between 1870 and 2004 at an average rate of about 1.44 mm/yr (1.7 mm/yr during the 20th century).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Data collected by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia show the current global mean sea level trend to be 3.2 mm (0.13 in) per year, a doubling of the rate during the 20th century.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: says Sweet, who has authored several sea-level rise studies.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: "The rate of sea-level rise".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: "Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Between 1993 and 2017, the global mean sea level rose on average by 3.1 ± 0.3 mm per year, with an acceleration detected as well.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects that in a very high emissions scenario the sea level could rise by 61–110 cm.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Sea level rise will continue over many centuries.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: “The Northern Hemisphere jet stream […] flow is stronger when that temperature difference is large.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Jet stream
evidence: This in turn reduces the temperature gradient that drives jet stream winds, which may eventually cause the jet stream to become weaker and more variable in its course.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Jet stream
evidence: If two air masses of different temperatures or densities meet, the resulting pressure difference caused by the density difference (which ultimately causes wind) is highest within the transition zone.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Jet stream
evidence: Therefore, the strong eastward moving jet streams are in part a simple consequence of the fact that the Equator is warmer than the North and South poles.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Pacific Ocean
evidence: The Westerlies and associated jet stream within the Mid-Latitudes can be particularly strong, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, due to the temperature difference between the tropics and Antarctica, which records the coldest temperature readings on the planet.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Weather
evidence: The strong temperature contrast between polar and tropical air gives rise to the large scale atmospheric circulation cells and the jet stream.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: But when the Arctic warms up faster than the equator does […] the jet stream’s flow can become weakened and elongated.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Jet stream
evidence: During the Dust Bowl, the jet stream weakened and changed course traveling farther south than normal.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Jet stream
evidence: This in turn reduces the temperature gradient that drives jet stream winds, which may eventually cause the jet stream to become weaker and more variable in its course.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Jet stream
evidence: With a weaker jet stream, the Polar vortex has a higher probability to leak out of the polar area and bring extremely cold weather to the middle latitude regions.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Jet stream
evidence: During these dark months the air high over the poles becomes much colder than the air over the Equator.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Jet stream
evidence: Therefore, the strong eastward moving jet streams are in part a simple consequence of the fact that the Equator is warmer than the North and South poles.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: Ever since 2012, scientists have been debating a complex and frankly explosive idea about how a warming planet will alter our weather — one that, if it’s correct, would have profound implications across the Northern Hemisphere and especially in its middle latitudes
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Global cooling
evidence: Whether this be due directly to the health, disposition or constitution of our globe itself, or to the weather from without, as the new glacial cosmogony would teach us, must remain a question for experts to debate, if not settle.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: Public disputes that also reflect scientific debate include estimates of how responsive the climate system might be to any given level of greenhouse gases (climate sensitivity), how the climate will change at local and regional scales, and what the consequences of global warming will be.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Problems of global warming, climate change, and their various negative impacts on human life and on the functioning of entire societies are one of the most dramatic challenges of modern times.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: The letter goes on to warn of predicted impacts on the United States such as sea level rise and increases in extreme weather events, water scarcity, heat waves, wildfires, and the disturbance of biological systems.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: It said that Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: ‘This study goes beyond statistical correlations and explores a specific process that can plausibly explain how enhanced high-latitude warming trends may trigger remote weather impacts,’ he said.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: This relationship has been documented through observation evidence and model responses to sea ice loss according to the 2017 Wiley Periodicals Article, Amplified Arctic warming and mid latitude weather: new perspectives on emerging connections.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: Correlations have been identified between high-latitude cryosphere changes, hemispheric wind patterns and mid-latitude extreme weather events for the Northern Hemisphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate of Mars
evidence: K. I. Abdusamatov has proposed that "parallel global warmings" observed simultaneously on Mars and on Earth can only be a consequence of the same factor: a long-time change in solar irradiance."
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Granger causality
evidence: Ordinarily, regressions reflect "mere" correlations, but Clive Granger argued that causality in economics could be tested for by measuring the ability to predict the future values of a time series using prior values of another time series.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Psychology
evidence: Observational studies analyze uncontrolled data in search of correlations; multivariate statistics are typically used to interpret the more complex situation.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: A recent study in Nature Geoscience, for instance, called into question whether the Arctic’s melting, and in particular its sea ice loss, has been causing winter cooling over Eurasia, another idea that has been swept up in the debate over the jet stream and weather extremes.”
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: In a 2017 study conducted by climatologist Dr. Judah Cohen and several of his research associates, Cohen wrote that "[the] shift in polar vortex states can account for most of the recent winter cooling trends over Eurasian midlatitudes".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Various mechanisms have been identified that might explain extreme weather in mid-latitudes from the rapidly warming Arctic, such as the jet stream becoming more erratic.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Polar amplification
evidence: Studies published in 2017 and 2018 identified stalling patterns of rossby waves, in the northern hemisphere jet stream, to have caused almost stationary extreme weather events, such as the 2018 European heatwave, the 2003 European heat wave, 2010 Russian heat wave, 2010 Pakistan floods - these events have been linked to global warming, the rapid heating of the Arctic.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Polar amplification
evidence: Cold Arctic air intrudes into the warmer lower latitudes more rapidly today during autumn and winter, a trend projected to continue in the future except during summer, thus calling into question whether winters will bring more cold extremes.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Rossby wave
evidence: In 2011, a Nature Geoscience study using general circulation models linked Pacific Rossby waves generated by increasing central tropical Pacific temperatures to warming of the Amundsen Sea region, leading to winter and spring continental warming of Ellsworth Land and Marie Byrd Land in West Antarctica via an increase in advection.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: ‘With levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere consistently breaking new records, the influence of human activities on the climate system has become more and more evident,’ said Taalas.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
evidence: While CO 2 absorption and release is always happening as a result of natural processes, the recent rise in CO 2 levels in the atmosphere is known to be mainly due to human (anthropogenic) activity.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report concluded, "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: It is likely that anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) warming, such as that due to elevated greenhouse gas levels, has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Because the complexity of the climate makes accurate prediction difficult, the APS urges an enhanced effort to understand the effects of human activity on the Earth's climate, and to provide the technological options for meeting the climate challenge in the near and longer terms.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: While ‘climate change’ can be due to natural forces or human activity, there is now substantial evidence to indicate that human activity – and specifically increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions – is a key factor in the pace and extent of global temperature increases.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: ‘Arctic ice conditions have been tracking at record low conditions since October, persisting for six consecutive months’
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: "Arctic Sea Ice Hits Record Low—Extreme Weather to Come?".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: Scientists recently measured sixteen-foot (five-meter) wave heights during a storm in the Beaufort Sea in mid-August until late October 2012.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: The previous record of the lowest area of the Arctic Ocean covered by ice in 2012 saw a low of 1.58 million square miles (4.09 million square kilometers).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Methane
evidence: "Arctic sea ice reaches lowest extent for the year and the satellite record" (Press release).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: “‘The Arctic may be remote, but changes that occur there directly affect us.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Arctic
evidence: The Arctic is especially vulnerable to the effects of any climate change, as has become apparent with the reduction of sea ice in recent years.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Arctic
evidence: Climate change is also predicted to have a large impact on Tundra vegetation, causing an increase of shrubs, and having a negative impact on bryophytes and lichens.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate change in the Arctic
evidence: Climate change is having a direct impact on the people that live in the Arctic, as well as other societies around the world.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate change in the United States
evidence: As an island Territory, we are directly and immediately impacted by global climate change.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: El Niño
evidence: As a result of this change, Micronesia is more likely to be affected by tropical cyclones, while China has a decreased risk of being affected by tropical cyclones.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The melting of the Greenland ice sheet is already contributing significantly to sea level rise, and new research is highlighting that the melting of Arctic sea ice can alter weather conditions across Europe, Asia and North America.’”
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Greenland ice sheet
evidence: The Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced record melting in recent years since detailed records have been kept and is likely to contribute substantially to sea level rise as well as to possible changes in ocean circulation in the future if this is sustained.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Greenland ice sheet
evidence: Ice sheet models project that such a warming would initiate the long-term melting of the ice sheet, leading to a complete melting of the ice sheet (over centuries), resulting in a global sea level rise of about 7 metres (23 ft).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Greenland ice sheet
evidence: Besides contributing to global sea level rise, the process adds freshwater to the ocean, which may disturb ocean circulation and thus regional climate.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Greenland
evidence: The glaciers of Greenland are also contributing to a rise in the global sea level faster than was previously believed.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: There is a threshold in surface warming beyond which a partial or near-complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet occurs.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Global sea level rise surged between November 2014 and February 2016, with the El Niño event helping the oceans rise by 15mm.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: 2014–16 El Niño event
evidence: The 2014–16 El Niño was a warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that resulted in unusually warm waters developing between the coast of South America and the International Date Line.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: 2014–16 El Niño event
evidence: As El Niño conditions started to develop during early 2014, sea levels in western Micronesia including in waters surrounding the island nations of Palau and Guam dropped by 6–9 feet (1.8–2.7 m).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Between 1900 and 2016, the sea level rose by 16–21 cm (6.3–8.3 in).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: This in turn caused sea-levels to rise 20 metres.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: 18 January 2019.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Final data for 2016 sea level rise have yet to be published.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: The IPCC's Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere concluded that global mean sea level rose by 0.16 metres between 1901 and 2016.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: Global sea level rise is accelerating, rising 2.5 times faster between 2006 and 2016 than it did during the 20th century.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Between 1900 and 2016, the sea level rose by 16–21 cm (6.3–8.3 in).
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Sea level rise
evidence: More precise data gathered from satellite radar measurements reveal an accelerating rise of 7.5 cm (3.0 in) from 1993 to 2017, which is a trend of roughly 30 cm (12 in) per century.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: A 2018 systematic review study estimated that ice loss across the entire continent was 43 gigatons (Gt) per year on average during the period from 1992 to 2002, but has accelerated to an average of 220 Gt per year during the five years from 2012 to 2017.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Our children and grandchildren will look back on the climate deniers and ask how they could have sacrificed the planet for the sake of cheap fossil fuel energy, when the cost of inaction exceeds the cost of a transition to a low-carbon economy,’ Watson said.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Climate change mitigation
evidence: At the core of most proposals is the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through reducing energy waste and switching to low-carbon power sources of energy.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate change mitigation
evidence: Examples of mitigation include reducing energy demand by increasing energy efficiency, phasing out fossil fuels by switching to low-carbon energy sources, and removing carbon dioxide from Earth's atmosphere.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: Robert Watson found this "very disappointing" and said "We need the public to understand that climate change is serious so they will change their habits and help us move towards a low carbon economy."
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Low-carbon economy
evidence: This would make the technologies more affordable and competitive in the global market, particularly when combined with a phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Low-carbon economy
evidence: Recent advances in technology and policy will allow renewable energy and energy efficiency to play major roles in displacing fossil fuels, meeting global energy demand while reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: An additional kick was supplied by an El Niño weather pattern that peaked in 2016 and temporarily warmed much of the surface of the planet, causing the hottest year in a historical record dating to 1880.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: El Niño
evidence: An El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months in April–October along the coasts of northern Peru and Ecuador, causing major flooding whenever the event is strong or extreme.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: El Niño
evidence: However, over time the term has evolved and now refers to the warm and negative phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is the warming of the ocean surface or above-average sea surface temperatures in either the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: El Niño
evidence: Scientists have also found the chemical signatures of warmer sea surface temperatures and increased rainfall caused by El Niño in coral specimens that are around 13,000 years old.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: El Niño
evidence: The event temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5 °C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25 °C associated with El Niño events.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: La Niña
evidence: La Niña is the positive and cold phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and is associated with cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: “The global reef crisis does not necessarily mean extinction for coral species.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Conservation biology
evidence: The loss of coral reefs, which are predicted to go extinct in the next century, threatens the balance of global biodiversity, will have huge economic impacts, and endangers food security for hundreds of millions of people.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Conservation biology
evidence: "One-Third of Reef-Building Corals Face Elevated Extinction Risk from Climate Change and Local Impacts".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event
evidence: The Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event, also known as the Cretaceous–Tertiary (K–T) extinction, was a sudden mass extinction of three-quarters of the plant and animal species on Earth, approximately 66 million years ago.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Extinction risk from global warming
evidence: The extinction risk of global warming is the risk of species becoming extinct due to the effects of global warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Water scarcity
evidence: Several fish species have been driven to the edge of extinction and some, such as the disturbed Tokios coral reef formations in the Indian Ocean, are effectively lost.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The corals may save themselves, as many other creatures are attempting to do, by moving toward the poles as the Earth warms, establishing new reefs in cooler water.”
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Coral in non-tropical regions
evidence: The poleward migration of coral species refers to the phenomenon brought on by rising sea temperatures, wherein corals are colonising cooler climates in an attempt to circumvent coral bleaching, rising sea levels and ocean acidification.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Coral in non-tropical regions
evidence: One way, however, that corals "might escape ocean warming, is to migrate into cooler waters."
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Great Barrier Reef
evidence: The corals could then overgrow the submerged hills, to form the present cays and reefs.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Paleocene
evidence: In the modern thermohaline circulation, warm tropical water becomes colder and saltier at the poles and sinks (downwelling or deep water formation) that occurs at the North Atlantic near the North Pole and the Southern Ocean near the Antarctic Peninsula.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Paleocene
evidence: In the PETM, it is possible deep water formation occurred in saltier tropical waters and moved polewards, which would increase global surface temperatures by warming the poles.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO