Hyukkyu/beir-climate-fever huggingface dataset:
Claim: More specifically, around 95% of active climate researchers actively publishing climate papers endorse the consensus position.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Nearly all publishing climate scientists (97–98%) support the consensus on anthropogenic climate change, and the remaining 3% of contrarian studies either cannot be replicated or contain errors.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: 76 out of 79 climatologists who "listed climate science as their area of expertise and who also have published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate change" believed that mean global temperatures had risen compared to pre-1800s levels.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States (PNAS) reviewed publication and citation data for 1,372 climate researchers and drew the following two conclusions: (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC (Anthropogenic Climate Change) outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Over 99.99% of climate scientists did not reject AGW in their peer-reviewed research.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC (Anthropogenic Climate Change) outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: All the indicators show that global warming is still happening.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: Many regions have probably already seen increases in warm spells and heat waves, and it is virtually certain that these changes will continue over the 21st century.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Arctic temperatures have increased and are predicted to continue to increase during this century at over twice the rate of the rest of the world.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: The 10th Emissions Gap Report issued by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) predicts that if emissions continue to increase at the same rate as they have in 2010–2020, global temperatures would rise by as much as 4° by 2100.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Globally, these effects are estimated to have led to a slight cooling, dominated by an increase in surface albedo.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: "In fact global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: According to basic physical principles, the greenhouse effect produces warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere), but cooling of the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: The main balancing feedback to global temperature change is radiative cooling to space as infrared radiation, which increases strongly with increasing temperature.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: This could trigger cooling in the North Atlantic, Europe, and North America.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: The reflection of energy into space resulted in a global cooling, triggering the Pleistocene Ice Age.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Nuclear winter
evidence: 1883 eruption of Krakatoa, which caused approximately 1 kelvin of global cooling for 2 years due to sulfate emissions.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: No climate model has predicted a cooling of the Earth – quite the  contrary.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Eocene
evidence: The models, while accurately predicting the tropics, tend to produce significantly cooler temperatures of up to 20 °C (36 °F) colder than the actual determined temperature at the poles.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Global warming is the long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: Most contemporary scientists thought that the Earth had been gradually cooling down since its birth as a molten globe.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Nuclear winter
evidence: The severity of this cooling in Alan Robock's model suggests that the cumulative products of 100 of these firestorms could cool the global climate by approximately 1 °C (1.8 °F), largely eliminating the magnitude of anthropogenic global warming for the next roughly two or three years.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Nuclear winter
evidence: The smoke resulting would be largely opaque to solar radiation but transparent to infrared, thus cooling the Earth by blocking sunlight, but not creating warming by enhancing the greenhouse effect.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Empirical measurements of the Earth's heat content show the planet is still accumulating heat and global warming is still happening.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Earth
evidence: "Evidence is now 'unequivocal' that humans are causing global warming – UN report".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Earth
evidence: This is predicted to produce changes such as the melting of glaciers and ice sheets, more extreme temperature ranges, significant changes in weather and a global rise in average sea levels.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Since the pre-industrial period, global average land temperatures have increased almost twice as fast as global average temperatures.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth's surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Instrumental temperature record
evidence: The global average and combined land and ocean surface temperature, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, in the period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple independently produced datasets.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Surface temperatures can show short-term cooling when heat is exchanged between the atmosphere and the ocean, which has a much greater heat capacity than the air.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Convection
evidence: Longitudinal circulation, on the other hand, comes about because the ocean has a higher specific heat capacity than land (and also thermal conductivity, allowing the heat to penetrate further beneath the surface ) and thereby absorbs and releases more heat, but the temperature changes less than land.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: This is due to the larger heat capacity of oceans and because oceans lose more heat by evaporation.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: When soot is suspended in the atmosphere, it directly absorbs solar radiation, heating the atmosphere and cooling the surface.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Tropical cyclone
evidence: This cooling is primarily caused by wind-driven mixing of cold water from deeper in the ocean with the warm surface waters.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Tropical cyclone
evidence: latent heat) at the temperature of the warm ocean surface (during evaporation, the ocean cools and the air warms).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: "[Models] are full of fudge factors that are fitted to the existing climate, so the models more or less agree with the observed data.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Astronomy
evidence: In the case of an inconsistency between the data and model's results, the general tendency is to try to make minimal modifications to the model so that it produces results that fit the data.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Mathematical model
evidence: As the purpose of modeling is to increase our understanding of the world, the validity of a model rests not only on its fit to empirical observations, but also on its ability to extrapolate to situations or data beyond those originally described in the model.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Models of scientific inquiry
evidence: The idea of 'too baroque' is connected to 'simplicity': "a theory jammed with fudge factors is not very elegant.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Models of scientific inquiry
evidence: A good theory: Is elegant (Formal elegance; no ad hoc modifications) Contains few arbitrary or adjustable elements (simplicity/parsimony) Agrees with and explains all existing observations (unificatory/explanatory power) Makes detailed predictions about future observations that can disprove or falsify the model if they are not borne out.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific modelling
evidence: However, a fit to empirical data alone is not sufficient for a model to be accepted as valid.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: While there are uncertainties with climate models, they successfully reproduce the past and have made predictions that have been subsequently confirmed by observations.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: General circulation model
evidence: These models are the basis for model predictions of future climate, such as are discussed by the IPCC.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Hockey stick controversy
evidence: It broadly agreed with the basic findings of the original MBH studies which had subsequently been supported by other reconstructions and proxy records, while emphasising uncertainties over earlier periods.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ozone depletion
evidence: Nevertheless, within three years most of the basic assumptions made by Rowland and Molina were confirmed by laboratory measurements and by direct observation in the stratosphere.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Science
evidence: Natural science is concerned with the description, prediction, and understanding of natural phenomena based on empirical evidence from observation and experimentation.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Science
evidence: This new explanation is used to make falsifiable predictions that are testable by experiment or observation.
evidence_label: REFUTES
Claim: The warming trend is the same in rural and urban areas, measured by thermometers and satellites, and by natural thermometers.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Climatology
evidence: Scientists use both direct and indirect observations of the climate, from Earth observing satellites and scientific instrumentation such as a global network of thermometers, to prehistoric ice extracted from glaciers.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: In areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Urban heat island
evidence: For example, urban and rural trends are very similar.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Urban heat island
evidence: This was done by using satellite-based night-light detection of urban areas, and more thorough homogenisation of the time series (with corrections, for example, for the tendency of surrounding rural stations to be slightly higher in elevation, and thus cooler, than urban areas).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Urbanization
evidence: For North America and Europe, such practice could reduce earth warming trends.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: "We found [U.S. weather] stations located next to  the exhaust fans of air conditioning units, surrounded by asphalt  parking lots and roads, on blistering-hot rooftops, and near sidewalks  and buildings that absorb and radiate heat.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Cooling tower
evidence: These early towers were positioned either on the rooftops of buildings or as free-standing structures, supplied with air by fans or relying on natural airflow.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Cooling tower
evidence: Although these large towers are very prominent, the vast majority of cooling towers are much smaller, including many units installed on or near buildings to discharge heat from air conditioning.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Grissom Air Reserve Base
evidence: All flight operations were controlled from an air conditioned observation room in the control tower of this building, which had windows overlooking the runway and landing mat areas.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Grissom Air Reserve Base
evidence: The building contained Bink's Paint Spraying and Air Washing Equipment, including blowers, air washing and purifying devices, and exhaust fans, installed to minimize danger of explosions and inhalation of fumes.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Palo Alto, California
evidence: A third, the Stanford station, located beside Alma Street at Embarcadero Road, is used for occasional sports events (generally football) at Stanford Stadium.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: We found 68 stations located  at wastewater treatment plants, where the process of waste digestion  causes temperatures to be higher than in surrounding areas.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Anaerobic digestion
evidence: Some European countries require a degree of elevated heat treatment to kill harmful bacteria in the input waste.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Anaerobic digestion
evidence: Today, anaerobic digesters are commonly found alongside farms to reduce nitrogen run-off from manure, or wastewater treatment facilities to reduce the costs of sludge disposal.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Anaerobic digestion
evidence: Thermophilic digestion takes place optimally around 49 to 57 °C, or at elevated temperatures up to 70 °C, where thermophiles are the primary microorganisms present.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sewage sludge treatment
evidence: Many larger sites utilize the biogas for combined heat and power, using the cooling water from the generators to maintain the temperature of the digestion plant at the required 35 ± 3 °C.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sewage sludge
evidence: In some treatment plants an Imhoff tank is used where sludge settles through a slot to the lower story or digestion chamber where it is decomposed by anaerobic bacteria, resulting in liquefaction and reduced volume of the sludge.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Numerous studies into the effect of urban heat island effect and microsite influences find they have negligible effect on long-term trends, particularly when averaged over large regions.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Urban heat island
evidence: On the other hand, one 1999 comparison between urban and rural areas proposed that urban heat island effects have little influence on global mean temperature trends.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Urban heat island
evidence: Several studies have revealed increases in the severity of the effect of heat islands with the progress of climate change.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Urban heat island
evidence: While some lines of research did not detect a significant impact, other studies have concluded that heat islands can have measurable effects on climate phenomena at the global scale.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Urban heat island
evidence: While the "heat island" warming is an important local effect, there is no evidence that it biases trends in the homogenized historical temperature record.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Urban heat island
evidence: Studies that have looked at hemispheric and global scales conclude that any urban-related trend is an order of magnitude smaller than decadal and longer time-scale trends evident in the series (e.g., Jones et al., 1990; Peterson et al., 1999).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: The increase in temperatures since 1975 is a consistent feature of all reconstructions.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Hockey stick controversy
evidence: In the hockey stick controversy, the data and methods used in reconstructions of the temperature record of the past 1000 years have been disputed.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Hockey stick controversy
evidence: Reconstructions have consistently shown that the rise in the instrumental temperature record of the past 150 years is not matched in earlier centuries, and the name "hockey stick graph" was coined for figures showing a long-term decline followed by an abrupt rise in temperatures.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Hockey stick graph
evidence: Hockey stick graphs present the global or hemispherical mean temperature record of the past 500 to 2000 years as shown by quantitative climate reconstructions based on climate proxy records.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Hockey stick graph
evidence: These reconstructions have consistently shown a slow long term cooling trend changing into relatively rapid warming in the 20th century, with the instrumental temperature record by 2000 exceeding earlier temperatures.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Hockey stick graph
evidence: published on 10 February 2005 used a wavelet transform technique to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the last 2,000 years, combining low-resolution proxy data such as lake and ocean sediments for century-scale or longer changes, with tree ring proxies only used for annual to decadal resolution.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: Natural temperature measurements also confirm the general accuracy of the instrumental temperature record.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: The warming evident in the instrumental temperature record is consistent with a wide range of observations, documented by many independent scientific groups; for example, in most continental regions the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation has increased.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Instrumental temperature record
evidence: Another study concluded in 2006, that existing empirical techniques for validating the local and regional consistency of temperature data are adequate to identify and remove biases from station records, and that such corrections allow information about long-term trends to be preserved.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Instrumental temperature record
evidence: These datasets are updated frequently, and are generally in close agreement.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Instrumental temperature record
evidence: The temperature data for the record come from measurements from land stations and ships.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Temperature record of the past 1000 years
evidence: Individual proxy records, such as tree ring widths and densities used in dendroclimatology, are calibrated against the instrumental record for the period of overlap.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: A large number of ancient mass extinction events have been strongly linked to global climate change.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event
evidence: Other causal or contributing factors to the extinction may have been the Deccan Traps and other volcanic eruptions, climate change, and sea level change.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event
evidence: "End-Cretaceous extinction in Antarctica linked to both Deccan volcanism and meteorite impact via climate change".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event
evidence: The regression would also have caused climate changes, partly by disrupting winds and ocean currents and partly by reducing the Earth's albedo and increasing global temperatures.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event
evidence: Species extinction at Seymour Island occurred in two pulses that coincide with the two observed warming events, directly linking the end-Cretaceous extinction at this site to both volcanic and meteorite events via climate change.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Quaternary extinction event
evidence: Among the main causes hypothesized by paleontologists are overkill by the widespread appearance of humans and natural climate change.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Because current climate change is so rapid, the way species typically adapt (eg - migration) is, in most cases, simply not be possible.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Biodiversity
evidence: Human activities therefore allow species to migrate to new areas (and thus become invasive) occurred on time scales much shorter than historically have been required for a species to extend its range.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Extinction
evidence: "Predicting patterns of long-term adaptation and extinction with population genetics".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Extinction
evidence: Meanwhile, low genetic diversity (see inbreeding and population bottlenecks) reduces the range of adaptions possible.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Invasive species
evidence: Invading species have been shown to adapt to their new environments in a remarkably short amount of time.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Nature
evidence: The combination of a high mutation rate and a horizontal gene transfer ability makes them highly adaptable, and able to survive in new environments, including outer space.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Every part of the Earth's climate system has continued warming since 1998, with 2015 shattering temperature records.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: Global warming is the long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Multiple independently produced instrumental datasets confirm that the 2009–2018 decade was 0.93 ± 0.07 °C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: An example of such an episode is the slower rate of surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012, which was dubbed the global warming hiatus.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Throughout this period ocean heat storage continued to progress steadily upwards, and in subsequent years surface temperatures have spiked upwards.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Greenland ice sheet
evidence: "NASA, NOAA Analyses Reveal Record-Shattering Global Warm Temperatures in 2015".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: but Antarctica is losing land ice at an accelerating rate, which has implications for sea level rise.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Antarctica
evidence: It is important to understand the various types of Antarctic ice to understand possible effects on sea levels and the implications of global cooling.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Antarctica
evidence: However, it is the outflow of the ice from the land to form the ice shelf which causes a rise in global sea level.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Antarctica
evidence: If all of this ice were melted, sea levels would rise about 60 m (200 ft).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Warming beyond the 2 °C (3.6 °F) target potentially lead to rates of sea-level rise dominated by ice loss from Antarctica.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: However scientists have found that ice is being lost, and at an accelerating rate.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: [Ice] is expanding in much of Antarctica, contrary to the widespread public belief that global warming is melting the continental ice cap.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Antarctic ice sheet
evidence: In contrast to the melting of the Arctic sea ice, sea ice around Antarctica has been expanding as of 2013[update].
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Antarctica
evidence: As a result of continued warming, the polar ice caps melted and much of Gondwana became a desert.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Antarctica
evidence: Sea ice extent expands annually in the Antarctic winter and most of this ice melts in the summer.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Antarctica
evidence: The amount of surface warming in West Antarctica, while large, has not led to appreciable melting at the surface, and is not directly affecting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet's contribution to sea level.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: The remainder of the additional energy has melted ice and warmed the continents and the atmosphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The majority of peer reviewed research at the time predicted warming due to increasing CO2.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Global cooling
evidence: A survey of peer-reviewed scientific papers published between 1965 and 1979 shows that the large majority of research at the time predicted that the earth would warm as carbon-dioxide levels rose — as indeed it has."
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global cooling
evidence: The 1970 Study of Critical Environmental Problems reported the possibility of warming from increased carbon dioxide, but no concerns about cooling, setting a lower bound on the beginning of interest in "global cooling".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global cooling
evidence: Academic analysis of the peer-reviewed studies published at that time shows that most papers examining aspects of climate during the 1970s were either neutral or showed a warming trend.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: This phrase next appeared in a November 1957 report in The Hammond Times which described Roger Revelle's research into the effects of increasing human-caused CO 2 emissions on the greenhouse effect: "a large scale global warming, with radical climate changes may result".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: "An article in Science magazine illustrated that a rise in carbon dioxide did not precede a rise in temperatures, but actually lagged behind temperature rises by 200 to 1000 years.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: In 2019 a paper published in the journal Science found the oceans are heating 40% faster than the IPCC predicted just five years before.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: Studies of the Vostok ice core show that at the "beginning of the deglaciations, the CO 2 increase either was in phase or lagged by less than ~1000 years with respect to the Antarctic temperature, whereas it clearly lagged behind the temperature at the onset of the glaciations".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: Recent warming is followed by carbon dioxide levels with only a 5 months delay.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Global warming
evidence: Temperatures rose by 0.0 °C–0.2 °C from 1720–1800 to 1850–1900 (Hawkins et al., 2017).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Carbon dioxide concentrations were relatively stable for the past 10,000 years but then began to increase rapidly about 150 years ago…as a result of fossil fuel consumption and land use change.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: When the Earth comes out of an ice age, the warming is not initiated by CO2 but by changes in the Earth's orbit.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Global cooling
evidence: Orbital forcing refers to the slow, cyclical changes in the tilt of Earth's axis and shape of its orbit.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane (the specific levels of the previously mentioned gases are now able to be seen with the new ice core samples from EPICA Dome C in Antarctica over the past 800,000 years); changes in the earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch cycles; the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on the earth's surface, which affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth–Moon system; the impact of relatively large meteorites and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: The Milankovitch cycles are a set of cyclic variations in characteristics of the Earth's orbit around the Sun.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: In particular, during the last 800,000 years, the dominant period of glacial–interglacial oscillation has been 100,000 years, which corresponds to changes in Earth's orbital eccentricity and orbital inclination.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: He attempted to show that they originated from changes in Earth's orbit.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The warming causes the oceans to release CO2.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Anoxic event
evidence: The trigger for these mass extinctions appears to be a warming of the ocean caused by a rise of carbon dioxide levels to about 1000 parts per million.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Anoxic event
evidence: The effect of this warm water propagates through the ocean, and reduces the amount of CO 2 that the oceans can hold in solution, which makes the oceans release large quantities of CO 2 into the atmosphere in a geologically short time (tens or thousands of years).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: As more CO2 and heat are absorbed by the ocean, it is acidifying and ocean circulation can change, changing the rate at which the ocean can absorb atmospheric carbon.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations have led to an increase in dissolved CO2, which causes ocean acidification.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: These feedbacks can change the role of the oceans in taking up atmospheric CO 2 making it very difficult to predict how the ocean carbon cycle will operate in the future.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The CO2 amplifies the warming and mixes through the atmosphere, spreading warming throughout the planet.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
evidence: The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary atmosphere warms the planet's surface beyond the temperature it would have in the absence of its atmosphere.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: Absorption of infrared light at the vibrational frequencies of atmospheric carbon dioxide traps energy near the surface, warming the surface and the lower atmosphere.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: Increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone have correspondingly strengthened their absorption and emission of infrared radiation, causing the rise in average global temperature since the mid-20th century.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Greenhouse effect
evidence: The greenhouse effect is the process by which radiation from a planet's atmosphere warms the planet's surface to a temperature above what it would be without this atmosphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: Because water vapor is a greenhouse gas, this results in further warming and so is a "positive feedback" that amplifies the original warming.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: So CO2 causes warming AND rising temperature causes CO2 rise.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: Absorption of infrared light at the vibrational frequencies of atmospheric carbon dioxide traps energy near the surface, warming the surface and the lower atmosphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: Not only do increasing carbon dioxide concentrations lead to increases in global surface temperature, but increasing global temperatures also cause increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate change feedback
evidence: The higher CO2 levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5 °C.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: During the late 20th century, a scientific consensus evolved that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cause a substantial rise in global temperatures and changes to other parts of the climate system, with consequences for the environment and for human health.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Overall, about 90% of the global warming occurs after the CO2 increase.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: Since the Industrial Revolution anthropogenic emissions – primarily from use of fossil fuels and deforestation – have rapidly increased its concentration in the atmosphere, leading to global warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations have led to an increase in dissolved CO2, which causes ocean acidification.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: As of 2011, the concentrations of CO2 and methane had increased by about 40% and 150%, respectively, since pre-industrial times.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 were equivalent to 49 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (using the most recent global warming potentials over 100 years from the AR5 report).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: The sharp acceleration in CO 2 emissions since 2000 to more than a 3% increase per year (more than 2 ppm per year) from 1.1% per year during the 1990s is attributable to the lapse of formerly declining trends in carbon intensity of both developing and developed nations.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: "His [Dr Spencer's] latest research demonstrates that – in the short term, at any rate –  the temperature feedbacks that the IPCC imagines will greatly amplify  any initial warming caused by CO2 are net-negative, attenuating the  warming they are supposed to enhance.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Climate change feedback
evidence: Climate change feedback is important in the understanding of global warming because feedback processes may amplify or diminish the effect of each climate forcing, and so play an important part in determining the climate sensitivity and future climate state.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate change feedback
evidence: Water vapor feedback is strongly positive, with most evidence supporting a magnitude of 1.5 to 2.0 W/m2/K, sufficient to roughly double the warming that would otherwise occur.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate change feedback
evidence: Both theory and climate models indicate that global warming will reduce the rate of temperature decrease with height, producing a negative lapse rate feedback that weakens the greenhouse effect.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: Because water vapor is a greenhouse gas, this results in further warming and so is a "positive feedback" that amplifies the original warming.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: It said that Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: His best estimate is that the  warming in response to a doubling of CO2 concentration, which may happen  this century unless the usual suspects get away with shutting down the  economies of the West, will be a harmless 1 Fahrenheit degree, not the 6  F predicted by the IPCC."
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: Without feedbacks the radiative forcing of approximately 3.7 W/m2, due to doubling CO 2 from the pre-industrial 280 ppm, would eventually result in roughly 1 °C global warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: In his first paper on the matter, he estimated that global temperature would rise by around 5 to 6 °C (9.0 to 10.8 °F) if the quantity of CO 2 was doubled.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The 1990 IPCC First Assessment Report estimated that equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO 2 lay between 1.5 and 4.5 °C (2.7 and 8.1 °F), with a "best guess in the light of current knowledge" of 2.5 °C (4.5 °F).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: IPCC Third Assessment Report
evidence: The TAR estimate for the climate sensitivity is 1.5 to 4.5 °C; and the average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius degrees over the period 1990 to 2100, and the sea level is projected to rise by 0.1 to 0.9 metres over the same period.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Kyoto Protocol
evidence: The "likely" range (as assessed to have a greater than 66% probability of being correct, based on the IPCC's expert judgment) is a projected increase in global mean temperature over the 21st century of between 1.1 and 6.4 °C.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Climate sensitivity can be calculated empirically by comparing past temperature change to natural forcings at the time.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: Climate sensitivity is the globally averaged temperature change in response to changes in radiative forcing, which can occur, for instance, due to increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: One way is to use estimates of global radiative forcing and temperature directly.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: Ignoring these factors causes lower estimates of climate sensitivity when using radiative forcing and temperature records from the historical period.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: Climate sensitivity can be estimated using observed temperature rise, observed ocean heat uptake, and modeled or observed radiative forcing.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: Climate sensitivity is typically estimated in three ways; by using observations taken during the industrial age, by using temperature and other data from the Earth's past and by modelling the climate system in computers.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: Some global warming 'skeptics' argue that the Earth's climate sensitivity is so low that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 will result in a surface temperature change on the order of 1°C or less, and that therefore global warming is nothing to worry about.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) refers to the equilibrium change in global mean near-surface air temperature that would result from a sustained doubling of the atmospheric equivalent CO 2 concentration (ΔT2×).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The sensitivity of temperature to atmospheric gasses, most notably CO 2, is often expressed in terms of the change in temperature per doubling of the concentration of the gas.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: In his first paper on the matter, he estimated that global temperature would rise by around 5 to 6 °C (9.0 to 10.8 °F) if the quantity of CO 2 was doubled.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The 1990 IPCC First Assessment Report estimated that equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO 2 lay between 1.5 and 4.5 °C (2.7 and 8.1 °F), with a "best guess in the light of current knowledge" of 2.5 °C (4.5 °F).
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The transient climate response (TCR) is the amount of temperature increase that might occur at the time when CO2 doubles, having increased gradually by 1% each year.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: And  since the last ice age ended almost exactly 11,500 years ago…" (Ice Age Now)
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Earth
evidence: The last continental glaciation ended 10,000 years ago.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: The last cold episode of the last glacial period ended about 10,000 years ago.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: During the most recent North American glaciation, during the latter part of the Last Glacial Maximum (26,000 to 13,300 years ago), ice sheets extended to about 45th parallel north.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: Accordingly, at glacial times the humid climatic belt that today is situated several latitude degrees further to the S, was shifted much further to the N. Although the last glacial period ended more than 8,000 years ago, its effects can still be felt today.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: The earth is currently in an interglacial, and the last glacial period ended about 10,000 years ago.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The warming effect from more CO2 greatly outstrips the influence from changes in the Earth's orbit or solar activity, even if solar levels were to drop to Maunder Minimum levels.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Attribution of recent climate change
evidence: If the Sun was responsible for observed warming, warming of the troposphere at the surface and warming at the top of the stratosphere would be expected as increase solar activity would replenish ozone and oxides of nitrogen.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
evidence: CO 2 absorbs and emits infrared radiation at wavelengths of 4.26 µm (asymmetric stretching vibrational mode) and 14.99 µm (bending vibrational mode) and consequently is a greenhouse gas that plays a significant role in influencing Earth's surface temperature through the greenhouse effect.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate change feedback
evidence: The higher CO2 levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5 °C.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: Future warming is projected to have a range of impacts, including sea level rise, increased frequencies and severities of some extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, and regional changes in agricultural productivity.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane (the specific levels of the previously mentioned gases are now able to be seen with the new ice core samples from EPICA Dome C in Antarctica over the past 800,000 years); changes in the earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch cycles; the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on the earth's surface, which affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth–Moon system; the impact of relatively large meteorites and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: 'Our harmless emissions of trifling quantities of carbon dioxide cannot possibly acidify the oceans.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: Carbon dioxide dissolves in the ocean to form carbonic acid (H2CO3), bicarbonate (HCO3−) and carbonate (CO32−).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: Most of the CO 2 taken up by the ocean, which is about 30% of the total released into the atmosphere, forms carbonic acid in equilibrium with bicarbonate.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: Carbon dioxide also causes ocean acidification because it dissolves in water to form carbonic acid.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: "Marine calcifiers exhibit mixed responses to CO 2-induced ocean acidification".
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Marine pollution
evidence: These rising levels of carbon dioxide are acidifying the oceans.
evidence_label: REFUTES
Claim: The current debate on the connection between CO2 emissions and climate change has largely overlooked an independent and equally serious problem, the increasing acidity of our oceans.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: As the concentration of carbon dioxide increases in the atmosphere, the increased uptake of carbon dioxide into the oceans is causing a measurable decrease in the pH of the oceans, which is referred to as ocean acidification.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: Also, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) writes in their Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report: "The uptake of anthropogenic carbon since 1750 has led to the ocean becoming more acidic with an average decrease in pH of 0.1 units.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Ocean acidification
evidence: Ocean acidification is the ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth's oceans, caused by the uptake of carbon dioxide (CO 2) from the atmosphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ocean acidification
evidence: This will cause an elevation of ocean alkalinity, leading to the enhancement of the ocean as a reservoir for CO 2 with implications for climate change as more CO 2 leaves the atmosphere for the ocean.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: They state further that the "continuing reliance on combustion of fossil fuels as the world's primary source of energy will lead to much higher atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, which will, in turn, cause significant increases in surface temperature, sea level, ocean acidification, and their related consequences to the environment and society".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Last December, the respected  journal “Oceanography” published projections (see graphic below) for this rising acidity, measured by falling pH
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Ocean acidification
evidence: Limiting global warming to below 2 °C would imply a reduction in surface ocean pH of 0.16 from pre-industrial levels.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Ocean acidification
evidence: It is expected to drop by a further 0.3 to 0.5 pH units (an additional doubling to tripling of today's post-industrial acid concentrations) by 2100 as the oceans absorb more anthropogenic CO 2, the impacts being most severe for coral reefs and the Southern Ocean.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Ocean acidification
evidence: "Dynamic patterns and ecological impacts of declining ocean pH in a high-resolution multi-year dataset".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ocean acidification
evidence: Between 1751 and 1996, surface ocean pH is estimated to have decreased from approximately 8.25 to 8.14, representing an increase of almost 30% in H+ ion concentration in the world's oceans.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ocean acidification
evidence: "Rising levels of acids in seas may endanger marine life, says study".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO