Hyukkyu/beir-climate-fever huggingface dataset:
Claim: Actual reconstructions "diverge" from the instrumental series in the last part of 20th century.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: 20th century
evidence: The Marshall Plan—which spent $13 billion ($100 billion in 2018 US dollars) to rebuild the economies of post-war nations—launched "Pax Americana".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Hockey stick controversy
evidence: Early quantitative reconstructions were published in the 1980s.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Hockey stick controversy
evidence: They were followed in April by a third reconstruction led by Gabriele C. Hegerl.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Hockey stick controversy
evidence: 2009 which reconstructed the climate of the Arctic over the last 2,000 years, and a new method of analysis using Bayesian statistics developed by Martin Tingley and Peter Huybers.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Hockey stick controversy
evidence: The resulting reconstruction went back to 1400, and was published in November as Mann, Park & Bradley 1995.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: For instance, in the original hockey stick (ending 1980) the last 30-40 years of data points slightly downwards.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Field hockey
evidence: Each player carries a "stick" that normally measures between 80–95 cm (31–38"); shorter or longer sticks are available.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Temperature record of the past 1000 years
evidence: Since the direct temperature record is more accurate than the proxies (indeed, it is needed to calibrate them) it is used when available: i.e., from 1850 onwards.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Temperature record of the past 1000 years
evidence: The curve shown in graphs of these reconstructions is widely known as the hockey stick graph because of the sharp increase in temperatures during the last century.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Temperature record of the past 1000 years
evidence: The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report cited 14 reconstructions, 10 of which covered 1,000 years or longer, to support its conclusion that "Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the highest in at least the past 1,300 years".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Temperature record of the past 1000 years
evidence: The term hockey stick was coined by the climatologist Jerry Mahlman, to describe the pattern this showed, envisaging a graph that is relatively flat to 1900 as forming an Ice hockey stick's "shaft", followed by a sharp increase corresponding to the "blade".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Europe and Asia  emit most of the soot from burning coal, wood, dung, and diesel in open  fires or without particulate filters in stoves, chimneys, smokestacks,  and exhaust pipes.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Air pollution
evidence: Most of these fine particles are a by-product of... burning... coal, gasoline, diesel, wood, trash...
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Air pollution
evidence: It is a product of combustion of fuel such as natural gas, coal or wood.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Diesel exhaust
evidence: Modern car engines use a diesel particulate filter (DPF) to capture carbon particles and then intermittently burn them using extra fuel injected directly into the filter.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Diesel particulate filter
evidence: A diesel particulate filter (DPF) is a device designed to remove diesel particulate matter or soot from the exhaust gas of a diesel engine.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Soot
evidence: They include soot from coal burning, internal-combustion engines, power-plant boilers, hog-fuel boilers, ship boilers, central steam-heat boilers, waste incineration, local field burning, house fires, forest fires, fireplaces, and furnaces.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: The United States has been restricting soot emissions  in Draconian fashion since the Clean Air Act of 1963.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Clean Air Act (United States)
evidence: § 7401) is a United States federal law designed to control air pollution on a national level.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Clean Air Act (United States)
evidence: The Clean Air Act of 1963 was the first federal legislation regarding air pollution control.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Clean Air Act (United States)
evidence: The Clean Air Act of 1970 (1970 CAA) authorized the development of comprehensive federal and state regulations to limit emissions from both stationary (industrial) sources and mobile sources.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Clean Air Act (United States)
evidence: In 1997 EPA tightened the NAAQS regarding permissible levels of the ground-level ozone that make up smog and the fine airborne particulate matter that makes up soot.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Clean Air Act (United States)
evidence: The first federal legislation to actually pertain to "controlling" air pollution was the Clean Air Act of 1963.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: "NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth's atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Cassini–Huygens
evidence: Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) The VIMS was a remote sensing instrument that captured images using visible and infrared light to learn more about the composition of moon surfaces, the rings, and the atmospheres of Saturn and Titan.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: A study released in 2009, combined historical weather station data with satellite measurements to deduce past temperatures over large regions of the continent, and these temperatures indicate an overall warming trend.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: This premature announcement came from a preliminary news release about a study which had not yet been peer reviewed.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: In a NASA report published in January 2013, Hansen and Sato noted "the 5-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slowdown in the growth rate of the net climate forcing."
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Another line of evidence for the warming not being due to the Sun is how temperature changes differ at different levels in the Earth's atmosphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Climate change in the Arctic
evidence: The authors conclude that "anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases have led to unprecedented regional warmth."
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: A 2007 study by David Douglass and coworkers, concluded that the 22 most commonly used global climate models used by the IPCC were unable to accurately predict accelerated warming in the troposphere although they did match actual surface warming, concluding "projections of future climate based on these models should be viewed with much caution".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: The 10th Emissions Gap Report issued by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) predicts that if emissions continue to increase at the same rate as they have in 2010–2020, global temperatures would rise by as much as 4° by 2100.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
evidence: Confidence in these near-term projections is strengthened because of the agreement between past model projections and actual observed temperature increases.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Richard Lindzen
evidence: The feedback due to water vapor is a major factor in determining how much warming would be expected to occur with increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, and all existing computer models assume positive feedback — that is, that as the climate warms, the amount of water vapour held in the atmosphere will increase, leading to further warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: A subsequent study by Dessler (2011) found that Spencer's paper was not a test of climate sensitivity or feedbacks, and his assumptions do not match empirical observational data.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Evolution as fact and theory
evidence: Phylogenetic theory is used to test the independent distributions of traits and their various forms to provide explanations of observed patterns in relation to their evolutionary history and biology.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Regression analysis
evidence: A properly conducted regression analysis will include an assessment of how well the assumed form is matched by the observed data, but it can only do so within the range of values of the independent variables actually available.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Richard Lindzen
evidence: Andrew Dessler published a paper which found errors in Lindzen and Choi 2011, and concluded that the observations it had presented "are not in fundamental disagreement with mainstream climate models, nor do they provide evidence that clouds are causing climate change.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Roy Spencer (scientist)
evidence: In 2008, Spencer and William Braswell published a paper in the Journal of Climate which suggests that natural variations in how clouds form could actually be causing temperature changes, rather than the other way around, and could also lead to overestimates of how sensitive the Earth's climate is to greenhouse gas emissions.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Science
evidence: Natural science is concerned with the description, prediction, and understanding of natural phenomena based on empirical evidence from observation and experimentation.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Hansen's 1988 results are evidence that the actual climate sensitivity is about 3°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: Without feedbacks the radiative forcing of approximately 3.7 W/m2, due to doubling CO 2 from the pre-industrial 280 ppm, would eventually result in roughly 1 °C global warming.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) refers to the equilibrium change in global mean near-surface air temperature that would result from a sustained doubling of the atmospheric equivalent CO 2 concentration (ΔT2×).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: In his first paper on the matter, he estimated that global temperature would rise by around 5 to 6 °C (9.0 to 10.8 °F) if the quantity of CO 2 was doubled.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: For constant humidity they computed a climate sensitivity of 2.3 °C per doubling of CO2 (which they rounded to 2, the value most often quoted from their work, in the abstract of the paper).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: An alternate scenario would keep the warming to below this if climate sensitivity were below 3 °C for doubled CO 2.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: 'On June 23, 1988, NASA scientist James Hansen testified before the House of Representatives that there was a strong "cause and effect relationship" between observed temperatures and human emissions into the atmosphere.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: James Hansen
evidence: Hansen was invited by Rafe Pomerance to testify before the United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on June 23, 1988.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: Hansen testified that "Global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming...It is already happening now" and "The greenhouse effect has been detected and it is changing our climate now...We already reached the point where the greenhouse effect is important."
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: James Hansen
evidence: Hansen said that NASA was 99% confident that the warming was caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and not a random fluctuation.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: During a senate meeting on June 23, 1988, Hansen reported that he was ninety-nine percent certain the earth was warmer then than it had ever been measured to be, there was a clear cause and effect relationship with the greenhouse effect and lastly that due to global warming, the likelihood of freak weather was steadily increasing.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: James Hansen
evidence: ...Dr. James E. Hansen of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration told a Congressional committee that it was 99 percent certain that the warming trend was not a natural variation but was caused by a buildup of carbon dioxide and other artificial gases in the atmosphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: At that time, Hansen also produced a model of the future behavior of the globe’s temperature, which he had turned into a video movie that was heavily shopped in Congress.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: James Hansen
evidence: The first climate prediction computed from a general circulation model that was published by Hansen was in 1988, the same year as his well-known Senate testimony.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: The second generation of the GISS model was used to estimate the change in mean surface temperature based on a variety of scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: Hansen concluded that global warming would be evident within the next few decades, and that it would result in temperatures at least as high as during the Eemian.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: Hansen compared the corrected troposphere temperatures with the results of the published GISS model, and concluded that the model is in good agreement with the observations, noting that the satellite temperature data had been the last holdout of global warming denialists, and that the correction of the data would result in a change from discussing whether global warming is occurring to what is the rate of global warming, and what should be done about it.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: ...Dr. James E. Hansen of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration told a Congressional committee that it was 99 percent certain that the warming trend was not a natural variation but was caused by a buildup of carbon dioxide and other artificial gases in the atmosphere.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: That model predicted that global temperature between 1988 and 1997 would rise by 0.45°C (Figure 1).
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: General circulation model
evidence: Over the same time period, the "likely" range (greater than 66% probability, based on expert judgement) for these scenarios was for a global mean temperature increase of 1.1 to 6.4 °C.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: General circulation model
evidence: In a scenario where global emissions start to decrease by 2010 and then declined at a sustained rate of 3% per year, the likely global average temperature increase was predicted to be 1.7 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2050, rising to around 2 °C by 2100.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: General circulation model
evidence: In a projection designed to simulate a future where no efforts are made to reduce global emissions, the likely rise in global average temperature was predicted to be 5.5 °C by 2100.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: General circulation model
evidence: Under the same emissions scenario but with a different model, the predicted median warming was 4.1 °C.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Currently, surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: But his results are evidence that the actual climate sensitivity is about 3°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: Arrhenius calculated the temperature increase expected from doubling CO 2 to be around 5-6 °C.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Richard Lindzen
evidence: Lindzen has stated that due to the non-linear effects of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, CO2 levels are now around 30% higher than pre-industrial levels but temperatures have responded by about 75% 0.6 °C (1.08 °F) of the expected value for a doubling of CO2.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Richard Lindzen
evidence: The IPCC (2007) estimates that the expected rise in temperature due to a doubling of CO2 to be about 3 °C (5.4 °F), ± 1.5°.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Richard Lindzen
evidence: Lindzen has given estimates of the Earth's climate sensitivity to be 0.5 °C based on ERBE data.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Svante Arrhenius
evidence: On the other hand, any doubling of the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air would raise the temperature of the earth's surface by 4°; and if the carbon dioxide were increased fourfold, the temperature would rise by 8°."
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: Had he used the currently accepted value of approximately 3°C warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2, Hansen would have correctly projected the ensuing global warming.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Greenhouse effect
evidence: The effect was more fully quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896, who made the first quantitative prediction of global warming due to a hypothetical doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: He argued that if the temperature rose 0.4 °C above the 1950–1980 mean for a few years, it would be the "smoking gun" pointing to human-caused global warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: Decades ago, they correctly predicted how much Earth's temperature would rise due to increasing atmospheric CO2.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: In 2000, Hansen advanced an alternative view of global warming over the last 100 years, arguing that during that time frame the negative forcing via aerosols and the positive forcing via carbon dioxide (CO 2) largely balanced each other out, and that the 0.74±0.18 °C net rise in average global temperatures could mostly be explained by greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, such as methane and chlorofluorocarbons.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: An alternate scenario would keep the warming to below this if climate sensitivity were below 3 °C for doubled CO 2.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: Global brightening is caused by changes in cloud cover, reflective aerosols and absorbing aerosols.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Black carbon
evidence: In addition to black carbon, fossil fuel and biofuel soot contain aerosols and particulate matter that cool the planet by reflecting the sun's radiation away from the Earth.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Black carbon
evidence: A purely scattering aerosol will reflect energy that would normally be absorbed by the earth-atmosphere system back to space and leads to a cooling effect.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global dimming
evidence: Aerosols and other particulates absorb solar energy and reflect sunlight back into space.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global dimming
evidence: The particles reflect and absorb sunlight, less sun rays reach Earth surface layers, thus resulting in cooler water and land surface temperatures, and also less cloud formation, subsequently dampening the development of hurricanes.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Solid and liquid particles known as aerosols – from volcanoes, plankton, and human-made pollutants – reflect incoming sunlight, cooling the climate.
evidence_label: REFUTES
Claim: While changes in cloud cover & aerosols lead to more sunlight hitting the surface, this can be compensated by the cooling effect on the atmosphere due to fewer clouds trapping less warmth and fewer absorbing aerosols absorbing less sunlight.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Climate system
evidence: Some primarily scatter sunlight and thereby cool the planet, while others absorb sunlight and warm the atmosphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global dimming
evidence: The particles reflect and absorb sunlight, less sun rays reach Earth surface layers, thus resulting in cooler water and land surface temperatures, and also less cloud formation, subsequently dampening the development of hurricanes.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: If cloud cover increases, more sunlight will be reflected back into space, cooling the planet.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Global warming
evidence: For instance, the change from a dark forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Particulates
evidence: For instance, if absorbing aerosols are present in a layer aloft in the atmosphere, they can heat surrounding air which inhibits the condensation of water vapour, resulting in less cloud formation.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: satellites confirmed measurements from ground stations show a considerable, and naturally-occurring, global brightening from 1983-2001 (Pinker et al., 2005).
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Global dimming
evidence: There was solar brightening beyond 2000 at numerous stations in Europe, the United States, and Korea.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global dimming
evidence: Wild et al., using measurements over land, report brightening since 1990, and Pinker et al.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: "A Revisit of Global Dimming and Brightening Based on the Sunshine Duration".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed, a phenomenon popularly known as global dimming, typically attributed to aerosols from biofuel and fossil fuel burning.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe
evidence: The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), originally known as the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP), was a spacecraft operating from 2001 to 2010 which measured temperature differences across the sky in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) – the radiant heat remaining from the Big Bang.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Elementary radiative-transfer calculations demonstrate that a natural surface global brightening amounting to ~1.9 Wm–2 over the 18-year period of study would be expected – using the IPCC’s own methodology – to have caused a transient warming of 1 K (1.8 F°).
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The global temperature increase since the beginning of the industrial period (taken as 1750) is about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), and the radiative forcing due to CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases – mainly methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons – emitted since that time is about 2.6 W/m2.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: Taking planetary heat uptake rate as the rate of ocean heat uptake estimated by the IPCC AR4 as 0.2 W/m2, yields a value for S of 2.1 °C (3.8 °F).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: Solar irradiance is about 0.9 W/m2 brighter during solar maximum than during solar minimum, which correlated in measured average global temperature over the period 1959-2004.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
evidence: They judge that global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last 100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Paleocene
evidence: The Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum was an approximate 200,000 year long event where the global average temperature rose by some 5 to 8 °C (9 to 14 °F), and mid-latitude and polar areas may have exceeded modern tropical temperatures of 24–29 °C (75–84 °F).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: When we do the calculations and include all radiative forcings and the amount of heat being absorbed by the oceans, it shows that the Earth has warmed almost exactly as much as we would expect.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Earth's energy budget
evidence: The net heat flux is buffered primarily by becoming part of the ocean's heat content, until a new equilibrium state is established between radiative forcings and the climate response.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Earth
evidence: This effect is much less significant than the total energy change due to the axial tilt, and most of the excess energy is absorbed by the higher proportion of water in the Southern Hemisphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Although the most common measure of global warming is the increase in the near-surface atmospheric temperature, over 90% of the additional energy stored in the climate system over the last 50 years has warmed ocean water.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Greenhouse effect
evidence: Most of this thermal radiation is absorbed by the atmosphere and warms it.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Greenhouse effect
evidence: Earth's surface, warmed to an "effective temperature" around −18 °C (0 °F), radiates long-wavelength, infrared heat in the range of 4–100 μm.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Arctic sea ice loss is three times greater than Antarctic sea ice gain, and the amount of solar energy absorbed by the Earth is increasing as a result.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Earth
evidence: The amount of solar energy reaching Earth's surface decreases with increasing latitude.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Earth
evidence: This effect is much less significant than the total energy change due to the axial tilt, and most of the excess energy is absorbed by the higher proportion of water in the Southern Hemisphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: More of the Sun's energy is now absorbed in these regions, contributing to Arctic amplification, which has caused Arctic temperatures to increase at more than twice the rate of the rest of the world.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea ice
evidence: As the sea ice melts, its surface area shrinks, diminishing the size of the reflective surface and therefore causing the earth to absorb more of the sun's heat.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea ice
evidence: As the ice melts it lowers the albedo thus causing more heat to be absorbed by the Earth and further increase the amount of melting ice.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: When the internal variability is removed from the temperature record, what we find is nearly monotonic, accelerating warming throughout the 20th Century.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: 20th century
evidence: One argument is that of global warming occurring due to human-caused emission of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide produced by the burning of fossil fuels.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Instrumental temperature record
evidence: The global average and combined land and ocean surface temperature, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, in the period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple independently produced datasets.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Instrumental temperature record
evidence: This view ignores the presence of internal climate variability.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Paleoclimatology
evidence: The geological record, however, shows a continually relatively warm surface during the complete early temperature record of Earth with the exception of one cold glacial phase about 2.4 billion years ago.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Temperature
evidence: For a body that is not in its own state of internal thermodynamic equilibrium, different thermometers can record different temperatures, depending respectively on the mechanisms of operation of the thermometers.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The motions of the massive oceans where heat is moved between deep layers and the surface provides variability on time scales from years to centuries.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Atlantic Ocean
evidence: Surface water temperatures, which vary with latitude, current systems, and season and reflect the latitudinal distribution of solar energy, range from below −2 °C (28 °F) to over 30 °C (86 °F).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate variability
evidence: These fluctuations in atmospheric temperature, sea surface temperature, precipitation or other parameters can be quasi-periodic, often occurring on inter-annual, multi-annual, decadal, multidecadal, century-wide, millennial or longer timescales.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate variability
evidence: El Niño and La Niña are important temperature fluctuations in surface waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: By itself, the climate system experiences various cycles which can last for years (such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation) to decades or centuries.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Meteorology
evidence: Significant movement of heat, matter, or momentum on time scales of less than a day are caused by turbulent motions.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: In fact, the authors go on to estimate climate sensitivity from their findings, calculate a value between 2.3 to 4.1°C.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The IPCC literature assessment estimates that TCR likely lies between 1 °C and 2.5 °C.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: For constant humidity they computed a climate sensitivity of 2.3 °C per doubling of CO2 (which they rounded to 2, the value most often quoted from their work, in the abstract of the paper).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The 1990 IPCC First Assessment Report estimated that equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO 2 lay between 1.5 and 4.5 °C (2.7 and 8.1 °F), with a "best guess in the light of current knowledge" of 2.5 °C (4.5 °F).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: IPCC authors concluded ECS is very likely to be greater than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) and likely to lie in the range 2 to 4.5 °C (4 to 8.1 °F), with a most likely value of about 3 °C (5 °F).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report reverted to the earlier range of 1.5 to 4.5 °C (2.7 to 8.1 °F) (high confidence) because some estimates using industrial-age data came out low.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: A new peer-reviewed study on Surface Warming and the Solar Cycle found that times of high solar activity are on average 0.2°C warmer than times of low solar activity, and that there is a polar amplification of the warming.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Climate change in the Arctic
evidence: According to a 2015 study, reductions in black carbon emissions and other minor greenhouse gases, by roughly 60 percent, could cool the Arctic up to 0.2 °C by 2050.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth's surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
evidence: Warming in the last 100 years has caused about a 0.74 °C increase in global average temperature.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
evidence: Climate sensitivity is defined as the amount of global average surface warming following a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Solar cycle
evidence: Also, average solar activity in the 2010s was no higher than in the 1950s (see above), whereas average global temperatures had risen markedly over that period.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The Petition Project features over 31,000 scientists signing the petition stating "there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide will, in the forseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere".
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Climate change denial
evidence: There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: In November 2017, a second warning to humanity signed by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries stated that "the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to rising greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and agricultural production – particularly from farming ruminants for meat consumption" is "especially troubling".
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Evidence from the geological record is consistent with the physics that shows that adding large amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere warms the world and may lead to: higher sea levels and flooding of low-lying coasts; greatly changed patterns of rainfall; increased acidity of the oceans; and decreased oxygen levels in seawater.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: 7–10 "There is now convincing evidence that since the industrial revolution, human activities, resulting in increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases have become a major agent of climate change.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), and secondarily the clearing of land, have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and other heat-trapping ("greenhouse") gases in the atmosphere...There is international scientific consensus that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.
evidence_label: REFUTES
Claim: The 30,000 scientists and science graduates listed on the OISM petition represent a tiny fraction (0.3%) of all science graduates.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Art Robinson
evidence: The OISM website states that "several members of the Institute's staff are also well known for their work on the Petition Project", and that the petition has "more than 31,000" signatures by scientists.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Art Robinson
evidence: Robinson asserted in 2008 that the petition has over 31,000 signatories, with 9,000 of these holding a PhD degree.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Doctor of Philosophy
evidence: The number of PhD graduates has grown substantially in many countries since 2000, PhD Graduates still represent a relatively small, elite group within most countries — around 1.1% of adults among OECD countries.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Oregon Petition
evidence: As of 2013, the petition's website states, "The current list of 31,487 petition signers includes 9,029 PhD; 7,157 MS; 2,586 MD and DVM; and 12,715 BS or equivalent academic degrees.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics
evidence: The total fresh STEM graduates were 2.6 million in 2016.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: More importantly, the OISM list only contains 39 scientists who specialise in climate science.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Antarctica
evidence: Ongoing experiments are conducted by more than 4,000 scientists from many nations.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Botany
evidence: A botanist, plant scientist or phytologist is a scientist who specialises in this field.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: List of climate scientists
evidence: The list includes scientists from several specialities or disciplines.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Oregon Petition
evidence: In 2001, Scientific American took a random sample "of 30 of the 1,400 signatories claiming to hold a Ph.D. in a climate-related science."
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Oregon Petition
evidence: Crudely extrapolating, the petition supporters include a core of about 200 climate researchers – a respectable number, though rather a small fraction of the climatological community.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The fact that so many studies on climate change don't bother to endorse the consensus position is significant because scientists have largely moved from what's causing global warming onto discussing details of the problem (eg - how fast, how soon, impacts, etc).
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Climate change (general concept)
evidence: The scientific consensus on climate change is "that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities", and it "is largely irreversible".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: This consensus is supported by various studies of scientists' opinions and by position statements of scientific organizations, many of which explicitly agree with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) synthesis reports.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS) in 2007, issued a Statement on Environment and Sustainable Growth: As reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human-produced emission of greenhouse gases and this warming will continue unabated if present anthropogenic emissions continue or, worse, expand without control.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: AAWV Position Statement on Climate Change, Wildlife Diseases, and Wildlife Health "There is widespread scientific agreement that the world's climate is changing and that the weight of evidence demonstrates that anthropogenic factors have and will continue to contribute significantly to global warming and climate change.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: There is an extensive discussion in the scientific literature on what policies might be effective in responding to climate change.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Klaus-Martin Schulte examined all papers published from 2004 to February 2007.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: February 8
evidence: Hippocrates and Medical Education: Selected Papers Presented at the XIIth International Hippocrates Colloquium, Universiteit Leiden, 24-26 August 2005.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Hitler Diaries
evidence: The Hitler Diaries (German: Hitler-Tagebücher) were a series of sixty volumes of journals purportedly written by Adolf Hitler, but forged by Konrad Kujau between 1981 and 1983.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Hitler Diaries
evidence: More importantly, according to Harris, it was decided that they should not have the material examined by a forensic scientist or historian until every diary had been obtained.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Hitler Diaries
evidence: While the discussions between Murdoch and Sorge were taking place, the diaries were examined by Broyle and his Newsweek team.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Hitler Diaries
evidence: 29 July 2002.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: A drop of volcanic activity in the early 20th century may have had a warming effect.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: 1257 Samalas eruption
evidence: Sea surface temperatures too decreased by 0.3–2.2 °C (0.54–3.96 °F), triggering changes in the ocean circulations.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: African humid period
evidence: In addition, the end of the 20th century drying trend may be due to global warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate change (general concept)
evidence: Notable eruptions in the historical records are the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo which lowered global temperatures by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) for up to three years, and the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora causing the Year Without a Summer.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Cloud
evidence: Most of the sunlight that reaches the ground is absorbed, warming the surface, which emits radiation upward at longer, infrared, wavelengths.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Lake Tahoe
evidence: Analysis of the temperature records in Lake Tahoe has shown that the lake warmed (between 1969 and 2002) at an average rate of 0.027 °F (0.015 °C) per year.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: However, volcanoes have had very little impact on the last 40 years of global warming.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Climate change (general concept)
evidence: Notable eruptions in the historical records are the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo which lowered global temperatures by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) for up to three years, and the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora causing the Year Without a Summer.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Huaynaputina
evidence: The eruption had a noticeable impact on growth conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, which were the worst of the last 600 years, with summers being on average 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) colder than the mean.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane (the specific levels of the previously mentioned gases are now able to be seen with the new ice core samples from EPICA Dome C in Antarctica over the past 800,000 years); changes in the earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch cycles; the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on the earth's surface, which affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth–Moon system; the impact of relatively large meteorites and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Younger Dryas
evidence: The Younger Dryas (around 12,800 to 11,550 years BP) was a return to glacial conditions after the Late Glacial Interstadial, which temporarily reversed the gradual climatic warming after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) started receding around 20,000 BP.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Younger Dryas
evidence: "Volcanic influence on centennial to millennial Holocene Greenland temperature change".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: When stomata-derived CO2 (red) is compared to ice core-derived CO2 (blue), the stomata generally show much more variability in the atmospheric CO2 level and often show levels much higher than the ice cores.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
evidence: Relevant to this dispute is the observation that Greenland ice cores often report higher and more variable CO 2 values than similar measurements in Antarctica.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: One study using evidence from stomata of fossilized leaves suggests greater variability, with carbon dioxide mole fractions above 300 ppm during the period seven to ten thousand years ago, though others have argued that these findings more likely reflect calibration or contamination problems rather than actual CO 2 variability.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: Because of the way air is trapped in ice (pores in the ice close off slowly to form bubbles deep within the firn) and the time period represented in each ice sample analyzed, these figures represent averages of atmospheric concentrations of up to a few centuries rather than annual or decadal levels.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: Measured atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are currently 100 ppm higher than pre-industrial levels.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice core
evidence: The proportions of different oxygen and hydrogen isotopes provide information about ancient temperatures, and the air trapped in tiny bubbles can be analysed to determine the level of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Arctic summer sea ice has shrunk by an area equal to Western Australia, and might be all gone in a decade.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Arctic Ocean
evidence: Research shows that the Arctic may become ice-free in the summer for the first time in human history by 2040.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Arctic Ocean
evidence: The summer shrinking of the ice has been quoted at 50%.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Arctic
evidence: There is a large variance in predictions of Arctic sea ice loss, with models showing near-complete to complete loss in September from 2040 to some time well beyond 2100.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Arctic
evidence: About half of the analyzed models show near-complete to complete sea ice loss in September by the year 2100.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Global warming
evidence: Global warming has led to decades of shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice, making it vulnerable to atmospheric anomalies.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also drew to a close.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Glacier
evidence: This post-glacial rebound, which proceeds very slowly after the melting of the ice sheet or glacier, is currently occurring in measurable amounts in Scandinavia and the Great Lakes region of North America.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Ice age
evidence: Due to the high viscosity of the Earth's mantle, the flow of mantle rocks which controls the rebound process is very slow—at a rate of about 1 cm/year near the center of rebound area today.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Post-glacial rebound
evidence: Unusually rapid (up to 4.1 cm/year) present glacial isostatic rebound due to recent ice mass losses in the Amundsen Sea embayment region of Antarctica coupled with low regional mantle viscosity is predicted to provide a modest stabilizing influence on marine ice sheet instability in West Antarctica, but likely not to a sufficient degree to arrest it.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Post-glacial rebound
evidence: Thus global sea level fell during glaciation.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Post-glacial rebound
evidence: Recent global warming has caused mountain glaciers and the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to melt and global sea level to rise.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO