Hyukkyu/beir-climate-fever huggingface dataset:
Claim: In Alaska, brown bears are changing their feeding habits to eat elderberries that ripen earlier.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Brown bear
evidence: They often feed on a variety of plant life, including berries, grasses, flowers, acorns and pine cones, as well as fungi such as mushrooms.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Brown bear
evidence: Fruits, including berries, become increasingly important during summer and early autumn.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Brown bear
evidence: In the Kamchatka peninsula and several parts of coastal Alaska, brown bears feed mostly on spawning salmon, whose nutrition and abundance explain the enormous size of the bears in these areas.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Grizzly bear
evidence: Grizzlies in Alaska supplement their diet of salmon and clams with sedge grass and berries.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Kodiak bear
evidence: As climate change causes elderberries to ripen earlier, berry season is now overlapping with salmon season and some bears are abandoning salmon runs to focus on the berries.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: The April low temperatures here are now about 6 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than they used to be.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Climate of Chicago
evidence: At O'Hare, temperatures as low as 7 °F (−14 °C) and 31 °F (−1 °C) have been recorded as late as April 7 and May 21, respectively.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Florida
evidence: With an average daily temperature of 70.7 °F (21.5 °C), it is the warmest state in the U.S.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Montclair, New Jersey
evidence: From April to June and from September to early November, Montclair experiences temperatures from the lower 60s to the lower 70s.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: New Jersey
evidence: Since 1895, average temperatures have climbed by almost 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, double the average for the other Lower 48 states.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Pago Pago
evidence: A temperature range of about three degrees Fahrenheit separates the average monthly temperatures of the coolest and hottest months.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Species that have a lot of plasticity tend to be generalists.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Effects of climate change on terrestrial animals
evidence: The American coyote is an example of a generalist.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Invasive species
evidence: Common invasive species traits include the following: Fast growth Rapid reproduction High dispersal ability Phenotype plasticity (the ability to alter growth form to suit current conditions) Tolerance of a wide range of environmental conditions (Ecological competence) Ability to live off of a wide range of food types (generalist) Association with humans Prior successful invasions Typically, an introduced species must survive at low population densities before it becomes invasive in a new location.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Invasive species
evidence: Intraspecific phenotypic plasticity, pre-adaptation and post-introduction evolution are all major factors in adaptive evolution.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Species
evidence: phenotypic plasticity, multiple life-cycle stages).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Vine
evidence: Vines are unique in that they have multiple evolutionary origins and a wide range of phenotypic plasticity.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: And there is a lot of evidence that climate change is diminishing biodiversity, which can be seen in these alpine meadows as well.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Biodiversity
evidence: Climate change has proven to affect biodiversity and evidence supporting the altering effects is widespread.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate change in the Arctic
evidence: "Dominance hierarchies, diversity and species richness of vascular plants in an alpine meadow: contrasting short and medium term responses to simulated global change".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Deforestation and climate change
evidence: As development of the country's caused a decline in forest cover, a reduction in biodiversity was seen in those areas.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Effects of climate change on plant biodiversity
evidence: Increased temperatures may allow herbivores to expand further into alpine regions, significant impacting the composition of alpine herbfields.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: The statement goes on to assert that "evidence is accumulating that wildlife and wildlife habitats have been and will continue to be significantly affected by ongoing large-scale rapid climate change."
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: current climate predictions may underestimate long-term warming by as much as a factor of two
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: "A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018–2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
evidence: Projections based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios suggest warming over the 21st century at a more rapid rate than that experienced for at least the last 10,000 years.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: A conservative estimate of the long-term projections is that each Celsius degree of temperature rise triggers a sea level rise of approximately 2.3 meters (4.2 ft/degree Fahrenheit) over a period of two millennia: an example of climate inertia.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: "Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: This could mean the landmark Paris Climate Agreement – which seeks to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels – may not be enough to ward off catastrophe.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: Although the parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) in the Paris Agreement of 2016, the Earth's average surface temperature has already increased by about half this threshold and current pledges by countries to cut emissions are inadequate to limit future warming.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Parties associated with the Accord aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep climate change well below 2 °C.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Paris Agreement
evidence: A 2018 published study points at a threshold at which temperatures could rise to 4 or 5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial levels, through self-reinforcing feedbacks in the climate system, suggesting this threshold is below the 2-degree temperature target, agreed upon by the Paris climate deal.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Paris Agreement
evidence: The Paris Agreement's long-term temperature goal is to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels; and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C, recognizing that this would substantially reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: In looking at Earth’s past, scientists can predict what the future will look like
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Big data
evidence: Fed by a large number of data on past experiences, algorithms can predict future development if the future is similar to the past.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global catastrophic risk
evidence: Scientists do not predict that a natural ice age will occur anytime soon.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Global catastrophic risk
evidence: Historically, the ability of experts to predict the future over these timescales has proved very limited.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Physics
evidence: For example, in the study of the origin of the earth, one can reasonably model earth's mass, temperature, and rate of rotation, as a function of time allowing one to extrapolate forward or backward in time and so predict future or prior events.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Scientific method
evidence: Scientific inquiry generally aims to obtain knowledge in the form of testable explanations that scientists can use to predict the results of future experiments.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: But as the change gets larger or more persistent … it appears they underestimate climate change
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Atmospheric methane
evidence: indicates that current greenhouse gas reduction policies in the US are based on what appear to be significant underestimates of anthropogenic methane emissions.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Models not only project different future temperature with different emissions of greenhouse gases, but also do not fully agree on the strength of different feedbacks on climate sensitivity and the amount of inertia of the system.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but now agrees well with observations.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Abrupt climate change, tipping points in the climate system: Climate change could result in global, large-scale changes.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: "How the oceans absorb carbon dioxide is critical for predicting climate change".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The research also revealed how large areas of the polar ice caps could collapse and significant changes to ecosystems could see the Sahara Desert become green and the edges of tropical forests turn into fire-dominated savanna.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Regime shift
evidence: Bush encroachment refers to small changes in herbivory rates that can shift drylands from grassy dominated regimes towards woody dominated savannas.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Regime shift
evidence: Dryland degradation occurs when the loss of vegetation transforms an ecosystem from being vegetated to being dominated by bare soils.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Regime shift
evidence: Regime shifts in polar regions include the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the possible collapse of the thermohaline circulation system.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Retreat of glaciers since 1850
evidence: The potential for major sea level rise depends mostly on a significant melting of the polar ice caps of Greenland and Antarctica, as this is where the vast majority of glacial ice is located.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Retreat of glaciers since 1850
evidence: If all the ice on the polar ice caps were to melt away, the oceans of the world would rise an estimated 70 m (230 ft).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: While an isolated heatwave can be put down as an anomaly, the scale of this phenomenon points to global warming as the culprit, scientists said.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Effects of global warming on human health
evidence: Another impact that the warming global temperature has had is on the frequency and severity of heat waves.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming conspiracy theory
evidence: The scientific consensus that global warming is occurring as a result of human activity remained unchanged at the end of the investigations.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Instrumental temperature record
evidence: Records of global average surface temperature are usually presented as anomalies rather than as absolute temperatures.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Shutdown of thermohaline circulation
evidence: In response Quirin Schiermeier concluded that natural variation was the culprit for the observations but highlighted possible implications.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: ‘Summers keep getting hotter,’ said Friederike Otto of the University of Oxford, who conducted extensive research into data from the heatwave that spread Europe in June, July and August 2017.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: London
evidence: Most recently in Summer 2018 and with much drier than average conditions prevailing from May to December.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Oxford
evidence: The highest temperature ever recorded in Oxford is 37.2 °C (99 °F) in July 2019 during the 2019 European heat wave.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sweden
evidence: That, in turn, renders most of Sweden's southern areas having warmer summers than almost everywhere in the nearby British Isles, even matching temperatures found along the continental Atlantic coast as far south as in northern Spain.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: University of Oxford
evidence: H. Rashdall, Universities of Europe, iii, 55–60.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: University of Oxford
evidence: Students taking maths and computer science examinations in the summer of 2017 were given an extra 15 minutes to complete their papers, after dons ruled that "female candidates might be more likely to be adversely affected by time pressure" "Archived copy".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: ‘Heatwaves are far more intense than when my parents were growing up in the 1950s.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Heat wave
evidence: A heat wave, or heatwave, is a period of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity, especially in oceanic climate countries.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Heat wave
evidence: The World Meteorological Organization, defines a heat wave as 5 or more consecutive days of prolonged heat in which the daily maximum temperature is higher than the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F) or more.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Heat wave
evidence: Increased anthropogenic activities causing increased greenhouse gas emissions show that heat waves will be more severe.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Heat wave
evidence: "More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Heat wave
evidence: 's Heat Wave Duration Index is that a heat wave occurs when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F), the normal period being 1961–1990.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: ‘If we do nothing to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, the kind of extreme heat we saw this past summer will be the norm when my young son is a grown man.’
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
evidence: CO 2 absorbs and emits infrared radiation at wavelengths of 4.26 µm (asymmetric stretching vibrational mode) and 14.99 µm (bending vibrational mode) and consequently is a greenhouse gas that plays a significant role in influencing Earth's surface temperature through the greenhouse effect.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
evidence: The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary atmosphere warms the planet's surface beyond the temperature it would have in the absence of its atmosphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: For example, bicycling reduces greenhouse gas emissions while reducing the effects of a sedentary lifestyle at the same time.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Avoiding this future warming will require a large and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Years of Living Dangerously
evidence: He learns that "Earth could warm by more than 9 degrees F (5 degrees C) by 2100 if we don’t aggressively reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases", and that more frequent heat waves and droughts will contribute to food shortages, which can lead to greater conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: the kind of extreme heat we saw this past summer will be the norm
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Climate change in Australia
evidence: August 2018 was hotter and windier than the average.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate change in Australia
evidence: Summer 2013–14 was warmer than average for the entirety of Australia.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Perth
evidence: Summers are generally hot and dry, lasting from December to March, with February generally the hottest month.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sydney
evidence: Under the Köppen–Geiger classification, Sydney has a humid subtropical climate (Cfa) with warm summers, cool winters and uniform rainfall throughout the year.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sydney
evidence: The summer of 2007–08, however, proved to be the coolest since 1996–97 and is the only summer this century to be at or below average in temperatures.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: On the other side of the Atlantic ocean, climates are typically milder as a result of the cooling from the Gulf Stream.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Atlantic Ocean
evidence: For example, the Gulf Stream helps moderate winter temperatures along the coastline of southeastern North America, keeping it warmer in winter along the coast than inland areas.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Atlantic Ocean
evidence: The Gulf Stream also keeps extreme temperatures from occurring on the Florida Peninsula.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Gulf Stream
evidence: Although there has been recent debate, there is consensus that the climate of Western Europe and Northern Europe is warmer than it would otherwise be due to the North Atlantic Current which is the northeastern section of the Gulf Stream.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Gulf Stream
evidence: East winds moving over this warm water move warm air from over the Gulf Stream inland, helping to keep temperatures milder across the state than elsewhere across the Southeast during the winter.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Norway
evidence: The coastal climate of Norway is exceptionally mild compared with areas on similar latitudes elsewhere in the world, with the Gulf Stream passing directly offshore the northern areas of the Atlantic coast, continuously warming the region in the winter.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: But despite [the Gulf Stream], the summer of 2018 looks set to be one of the hottest on record.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Bahrain
evidence: Summer temperatures may reach up to 50 °C (122 °F) under the right conditions.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Gulf Stream
evidence: The Gulf Stream, together with its northern extension the North Atlantic Drift, is a warm and swift Atlantic ocean current that originates in the Gulf of Mexico and stretches to the tip of Florida, and follows the eastern coastlines of the United States and Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean as the North Atlantic Current.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Gulf Stream
evidence: By carrying warm water northeast across the Atlantic, it makes Western and especially Northern Europe warmer than it otherwise would be.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Gulf Stream
evidence: As it travels north, the warm water transported by the Gulf Stream undergoes evaporative cooling.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Gulf Stream
evidence: These two processes produce water that is denser and colder (or, more precisely, water that is still liquid at a lower temperature).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The sun was so intense, it took the mercury up to in excess of 120°F as it topped out at 122.4 °F (50.2°C).
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Mercury (planet)
evidence: The surface temperature of Mercury ranges from 100 to 700 K (−173 to 427 °C; −280 to 800 °F) at the most extreme places: 0°N, 0°W, or 180°W.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Mercury (planet)
evidence: On the dark side of the planet, temperatures average 110 K. The intensity of sunlight on Mercury's surface ranges between 4.59 and 10.61 times the solar constant (1,370 W·m−2).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Mercury (planet)
evidence: Having almost no atmosphere to retain heat, it has surface temperatures that vary diurnally more than on any other planet in the Solar System, ranging from 100 K (−173 °C; −280 °F) at night to 700 K (427 °C; 800 °F) during the day across the equatorial regions.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Mercury (planet)
evidence: The polar regions are constantly below 180 K (−93 °C; −136 °F).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sun
evidence: The Sun is a G2V star, with G2 indicating its surface temperature of approximately 5,778 K (5,505 °C, 9,941 °F), and V that it, like most stars, is a main-sequence star.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Their ECS estimate is 1.5 degrees, with a probability range between 1.05 and 2.45 degrees.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: As estimated by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), "there is high confidence that ECS is extremely unlikely less than 1°C and medium confidence that the ECS is likely between 1.5°C and 4.5°C and very unlikely greater than 6°C".
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The IPCC literature assessment estimates that TCR likely lies between 1 °C and 2.5 °C.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: IPCC authors concluded ECS is very likely to be greater than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) and likely to lie in the range 2 to 4.5 °C (4 to 8.1 °F), with a most likely value of about 3 °C (5 °F).
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report reverted to the earlier range of 1.5 to 4.5 °C (2.7 to 8.1 °F) (high confidence) because some estimates using industrial-age data came out low.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: They also stated that ECS is extremely unlikely to be less than 1 °C (1.8 °F) (high confidence), and is very unlikely to be greater than 6 °C (11 °F) (medium confidence).
evidence_label: REFUTES
Claim: But it is part of a long list of studies from independent teams (as this interactive graphic shows), using a variety of methods that take account of critical challenges, all of which conclude that climate models exhibit too much sensitivity to greenhouse gases.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Climate change adaptation
evidence: African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis 2050 (AMMA-2050) aim to address the challenges of understanding how the monsoon will change in future decades, to 2050, and how this information can be most effectively used to support climate-compatible development in the region.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: A 2007 study by David Douglass and coworkers, concluded that the 22 most commonly used global climate models used by the IPCC were unable to accurately predict accelerated warming in the troposphere although they did match actual surface warming, concluding "projections of future climate based on these models should be viewed with much caution".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: Over several decades of development, models have consistently provided a robust and unambiguous picture of significant climate warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: Synthesis reports are assessments of scientific literature that compile the results of a range of stand-alone studies in order to achieve a broad level of understanding, or to describe the state of knowledge of a given subject.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Scientific consensus on climate change
evidence: The Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I (October 2017) provided the following summary: This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: It shows that ECS is probably between two and 4.5 degrees, possibly as low as 1.5 but not lower, and possibly as high as nine degrees.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Bachelor's degree
evidence: Ordinary degrees are at level 9 and require 360 credits with a minimum of 90 at level 9.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Degrees of freedom (physics and chemistry)
evidence: a diatomic molecule) in a 3-D space with constant distance between them (let's say d) we can show (below) its degrees of freedom to be 5.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Equator
evidence: The latitude of the Earth's equator is, by definition, 0° (zero degrees) of arc.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Master's degree
evidence: Taught master's degrees are normally one to two year courses, rated at 60 - 120 ECTS credits, while research master's degrees are normally two year courses, either rated at 120 ECTS credits or not credit rated.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Six degrees of separation
evidence: The average separation for all users of the application is 5.73 degrees, whereas the maximum degree of separation is 12.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: If ECS is as low as the Energy Balance literature suggests, it means that the climate models we have been using for decades run too hot and need to be revised.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: Ed Hawkins, of the University of Reading, stated that the "surface temperatures since 2005 are already at the low end of the range of projections derived from 20 climate models.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: Over several decades of development, models have consistently provided a robust and unambiguous picture of significant climate warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: In 1896, he published the first climate model of its kind, showing that halving of CO 2 could have produced the drop in temperature initiating the ice age.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
evidence: They judge that global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last 100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability.
evidence_label: REFUTES
Claim: Whether Antarctic mass loss keeps worsening depends on choices made today
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Antarctica
evidence: "Mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet exceed losses".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice sheet
evidence: The Greenland, and possibly the Antarctic, ice sheets have been losing mass recently, because losses by ablation including outlet glaciers exceed accumulation of snowfall.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Sometimes these adaptation strategies go hand in hand, but at other times choices have to be made among different strategies.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: All datasets generally show an acceleration of mass loss from the Antarctic ice-sheet, but with year-to-year variations.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: A 2019 study, however, using different methodology, concluded that East Antarctica is losing significant amounts of ice mass.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: That’s because as Antarctica’s mass shrinks, the ice sheet’s gravitational pull on the ocean relaxes somewhat, and the seas travel back across the globe to pile up far away — with U.S. coasts being one prime destination.”
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Antarctica
evidence: Melting of floating ice shelves (ice that originated on the land) does not in itself contribute much to sea-level rise (since the ice displaces only its own mass of water).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Antarctica
evidence: However, it is the outflow of the ice from the land to form the ice shelf which causes a rise in global sea level.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Post-glacial rebound
evidence: During deglaciation, the melted ice water returns to the oceans, thus sea level in the ocean increases again.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: With the loss of mass, the gravitational pull becomes less and local water levels might drop.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: The additional snowfall causes increased ice flow of the ice sheet into the ocean, so that the mass gain due to snowfall is partially compensated.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The Rio Grande is a classic “feast or famine” river, with a dry year or two typically followed by a couple of wet years that allow for recovery.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Köppen climate classification
evidence: s indicates at least three times as much rain in the wettest month of winter as in the driest month of summer.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Köppen climate classification
evidence: Winters are noticeable and dry, and summers can be very rainy.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Rio Grande
evidence: Because of both drought and overuse, the section from El Paso downstream through Ojinaga was recently tagged "The Forgotten River" by those wishing to bring attention to the river's deteriorated condition.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Temperate climate
evidence: In these regions winters are quite dry and summers have very heavy rainfall.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Temperate climate
evidence: Mediterranean Climates, opposite to the humid subtropical and monsoonal climates, have a dry summer, with rainfall in the winter and cooler months.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: If warming temperatures brought on by greenhouse gas emissions make wet years less wet and dry years even drier, as scientists anticipate, year-to-year recovery will become more difficult.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: Prolonged periods of warmer temperatures typically cause soil and underbrush to be drier for longer periods, increasing the risk of wildfires.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: In other words, regions which are dry at present will in general become even drier, while regions that are currently wet will in general become even wetter.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: If GHG emissions grow a lot (IPCC scenario RCP8.5), already dry regions may have more droughts and less soil moisture.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Overall, higher temperatures bring more rain and snowfall, but for some regions droughts and wildfires increase instead.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Physical impacts of climate change
evidence: In other words, regions which are dry at present will generally become even drier, while regions that are currently wet will generally become even wetter.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The effect of long-term warming is to make it harder to count on snowmelt runoff in wet times
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Cryosphere
evidence: Climate warming is expected to result in major changes to the partitioning of snow and rainfall, and to the timing of snowmelt, which will have important implications for water use and management.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Further examples include sea level rise, widespread melting of snow and land ice, increased heat content of the oceans, increased humidity, and the earlier timing of spring events, such as the flowering of plants.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Lake Tahoe
evidence: There is a pronounced annual runoff of snowmelt in late spring and early summer, the timing of which varies from year to year.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Season creep
evidence: Modeling of snowmelt predicted that warming of 3 to 5 °C in the Western United States could cause snowmelt-driven runoff to occur as much as two months earlier, with profound effects on hydroelectricity, land use, agriculture, and water management.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Snow
evidence: Some agricultural areas depend on an accumulation of snow during winter that will melt gradually in spring, providing water for crop growth, both directly and via runoff through streams and rivers, which supply irrigation canals.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Last year, though, was a wet one on the Rio Grande, with a strong snowpack in the winter of 2016-17 that allowed the conservancy district to store water in upstream reservoirs.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Colorado River
evidence: In November 2012, the U.S. and Mexico reached an agreement, known as Minute 319, permitting Mexico storage of its water allotment in U.S. reservoirs during wet years, thus increasing the efficiency with which the water can be used.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Glen Canyon Dam
evidence: Since then, the reservoir has slowly regained water storage, but has not filled due to fluctuating runoff levels and its obligated release to Lake Mead.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Glen Canyon Dam
evidence: At the end of water year 2017 (September 30), the lake level was 3,628 feet (1,106 m), and at 60 percent of capacity.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Glen Canyon Dam
evidence: With the Glen Canyon site out of the question, the initial need for a reservoir was realized in 1936 with the completion of Hoover Dam in Black Canyon, storing 32 million acre feet (39 km3) in the mammoth reservoir of Lake Mead.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Glen Canyon Dam
evidence: Without storage reservoirs of their own, the Upper Basin states risked a "call" on the Colorado River during drought years: they would be forced to use less water in order to keep the river flowing to Lake Mead and California, the state with the most senior water rights.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Temperatures in the Southwest increased by nearly two degrees Fahrenheit (one degree Celsius) from 1901 to 2010, and some climate models forecast a total rise of six degrees or more by the end of this century.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Climate change in the United States
evidence: In it was the prediction that on our current course the planet will warm a disastrous seven degrees Fahrenheit (or about 3.9 degrees Celsius) by the end of this century.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate change in the United States
evidence: For example, based on projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and results from the United Kingdom Hadley Centre's climate model (HadCM2), a model that accounts for both greenhouse gases and aerosols, by 2100 temperatures in Idaho could increase by 5 °F (2.8 °C) (with a range of 2-9 °F) in winter and summer and 4 °F (2.2 °C) (with a range of 2-7 °F) in spring and fall.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate change in the United States
evidence: "A projected increase of 4.05 degrees Fahrenheit in average temperature is expected by 2065, and a projected increase of 9.37 degrees Fahrenheit in average temperature can be expected by the turn of the century if nothing is done to curb emissions.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate change in the United States
evidence: The average annual temperature in South Dakota has increased by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit since the beginning of the 20th century, and most of that warming has occurred in winter and spring.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Permian
evidence: Based on the amount of lava estimated to have been produced during this period, the worst-case scenario is the release of enough carbon dioxide from the eruptions to raise world temperatures five degrees Celsius.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Dr. Gutzler said spring temperatures have an impact, too, with warmer air causing more snow to turn to vapor and essentially disappear.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Effects of global warming
evidence: Warmer air holds more water vapor.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Further examples include sea level rise, widespread melting of snow and land ice, increased heat content of the oceans, increased humidity, and the earlier timing of spring events, such as the flowering of plants.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Precipitation
evidence: Because of this temperature difference, warmth and moisture are transported upward, condensing into vertically oriented clouds (see satellite picture) which produce snow showers.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Snow
evidence: Moisture is removed by orographic lift, leaving drier, warmer air on the descending, leeward side.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Thunderstorm
evidence: As the water vapor condenses into liquid, latent heat is released, which warms the air, causing it to become less dense than the surrounding, drier air.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: A longer and warmer growing season also has an effect, Dr. Overpeck said, as plants take up more water, further reducing stream flows.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Climate change and agriculture
evidence: Increased temperatures and altered hydrological cycles are predicted to translate to shorter growing seasons, overall reduced biomass production, and lower grain yields.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Climate change and agriculture
evidence: A reduction in runoff will affect the ability to irrigate crops and will reduce summer stream flows necessary to keep dams and reservoirs replenished.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate change and agriculture
evidence: While warmer temperatures create longer growing seasons, and faster growth rates for plants, it also increases the metabolic rate and number of breeding cycles of insect populations.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: List of ecoregions in North America (CEC)
evidence: As climate change more rapidly progresses, temperature increases will affect the length of the growing season.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Season creep
evidence: While summer growing seasons are expanding, winters are getting warmer and shorter, resulting in reduced winter ice cover on bodies of water, earlier ice-out, earlier melt water flows, and earlier spring lake level peaks.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: The noted oceanographer Walter Munk referred to sea-level rise as an “enigma”
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Sea level rise
evidence: "Scientists discover evidence for past high-level sea rise".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: "Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era".
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Sea level rise
evidence: "Multidecadal sea level anomalies and trends in the western tropical Pacific".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Seamount
evidence: They are defined by oceanographers as independent features that rise to at least 1,000 m (3,281 ft) above the seafloor, characteristically of conical form.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Walter Munk
evidence: This work described what came to be known as "Munk's enigma", a large discrepancy between observed rate of sea level rise and its expected effects on the earth's rotation.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: I note particularly that sea-level rise is not affected by the warming; it continues at the same rate, 1.8 millimeters a year, according to a 1990 review by Andrew S. Trupin and John Wahr.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: Between 1993 and 2017, the global mean sea level rose on average by 3.1 ± 0.3 mm per year, with an acceleration detected as well.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Sea level rise
evidence: For instance, Mercer published a study in 1978 predicting that anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming and its potential effects on climate in the 21st century could cause a sea level rise of around 5 metres (16 ft) from melting of the West Antarctic ice-sheet alone.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: The last time the Earth was 2 °C (3.6 °F) warmer than pre-industrial temperatures, sea levels were at least 5 metres (16 ft) higher than now: this was when warming because of changes in the amount of sunlight due to slow changes in the Earth's orbit caused the last interglacial.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Data collected by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia show the current global mean sea level trend to be 3.2 mm (0.13 in) per year, a doubling of the rate during the 20th century.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Sea level rise
evidence: The sea-level rise due to Antarctica has been estimated to be 0.25 mm per year from 1993–2005, and 0.42 mm per year from 2005 to 2015.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The trend has been measured by a network of tidal gauges, many of which have been collecting data for over a century.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Sea level rise
evidence: More precise data gathered from satellite radar measurements reveal an accelerating rise of 7.5 cm (3.0 in) from 1993 to 2017, which is a trend of roughly 30 cm (12 in) per century.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: "One of the most striking trends – over a century of global-average sea level change".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Earlier satellite measurements were previously slightly at odds with tide gauge measurements.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Another important source of sea-level observations is the global network of tide gauges.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Data collected by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia show the current global mean sea level trend to be 3.2 mm (0.13 in) per year, a doubling of the rate during the 20th century.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: as continents rise after the overlying ice has melted
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Geology of Scotland
evidence: Sea levels rose as the Ordovician ice sheets melted, and tectonic movements created major faults which assembled the outline of Scotland from previously scattered fragments.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Karoo Supergroup
evidence: As Gondwana drifted away from the South Pole, the glaciers melted, leaving a vast inland sea, extending across South Africa, and neighboring regions of Gondwana.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Overdeepening
evidence: Water flowing down the headwall gains energy, which melts the surrounding ice, creating channels.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Overdeepening
evidence: As the water passes through the bottom, it continues to drop in temperature; since it is highly pressurized at this point, the melting temperature is suppressed and the water becomes supercooled as it melts surrounding ice.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Plate tectonics
evidence: The addition of water lowers the melting point of the mantle material above the subducting slab, causing it to melt.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: I conclude that it must be ice accumulation, through evaporation of ocean water, and subsequent precipitation turning into ice.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Flood
evidence: Some precipitation evaporates, some slowly percolates through soil, some may be temporarily sequestered as snow or ice, and some may produce rapid runoff from surfaces including rock, pavement, roofs, and saturated or frozen ground.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Each year about 8 mm (0.31 in) of precipitation (liquid equivalent) falls on the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, mostly as snow, which accumulates and over time forms glacial ice.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Much of this precipitation began as water vapor evaporated from the ocean surface.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Snow
evidence: It consists of frozen crystalline water throughout its life cycle, starting when, under suitable conditions, the ice crystals form in the atmosphere, increase to millimeter size, precipitate and accumulate on surfaces, then metamorphose in place, and ultimately melt, slide or sublimate away.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Water
evidence: precipitation, from water vapor condensing from the air and falling to the earth or ocean.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Currently, sea-level rise does not seem to depend on ocean temperature, and certainly not on CO2.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
evidence: This depth depends on (among other things) temperature and the amount of CO 2 dissolved in the ocean.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Sea level rise
evidence: This acceleration is due mostly to human-caused global warming, which is driving thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of land-based ice sheets and glaciers.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Sea level rise
evidence: The heat needed to raise an average temperature increase of the entire world ocean by 0.01 °C would increase the atmospheric temperature by approximately 10 °C.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Thus, a small change in the mean temperature of the ocean represents a very large change in the total heat content of the climate system.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level
evidence: Atmospheric pressure, ocean currents and local ocean temperature changes can affect LMSL as well.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: But there is also good data showing sea levels
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Coral
evidence: By analyzing the various growth morphologies, microatolls offer a low resolution record of sea level change.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but now agrees well with observations.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Between 1993 and 2017, the global mean sea level rose on average by 3.1 ± 0.3 mm per year, with an acceleration detected as well.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea level rise.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Great Salt Lake
evidence: Water levels have been recorded since 1875, averaging about 4,200 feet (1,280 m) above sea level.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO