Hyukkyu/beir-climate-fever huggingface dataset:
Claim: By 2100 the seas will rise another 6 inches or so—a far cry from Al Gore’s alarming numbers
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Mediterranean Sea
evidence: [citation needed] By 2100 the overall level of the Mediterranean could rise between 3 to 61 cm (1.2 to 24.0 in) as a result of the effects of climate change.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Mediterranean Sea
evidence: A 30 cm (12 in) rise in sea level would flood 200 square kilometres (77 sq mi) of the Nile Delta, displacing over 500,000 Egyptians.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Mediterranean Sea
evidence: Sea level rise for the next century (2100) could be between 30 cm (12 in) and 100 cm (39 in) and temperature shifts of a mere 0.05–0.1 °C in the deep sea are sufficient to induce significant changes in species richness and functional diversity.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Mediterranean Sea
evidence: "Mediterranean Sea Level Could Rise By Over Two Feet, Global Models Predict".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea
evidence: The pH is expected to reach 7.7 (representing a 3-fold increase in hydrogen ion concentration) by the year 2100, which is a significant change in a century.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Mr. Singer is a professor emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Fred Singer
evidence: Siegfried Fred Singer (born September 27, 1924) is an Austrian-born American physicist and emeritus professor of environmental science at the University of Virginia.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Fred Singer
evidence: Singer accepted a professorship in Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia in 1971, a position he held until 1994, where he taught classes on environmental issues such as ozone depletion, acid rain, climate change, population growth, and public policy issues related to oil and energy.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Fred Singer
evidence: When he retired from Virginia in 1994, he became Distinguished Research Professor at the Institute for Humane Studies at George Mason University until 2000.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Fred Singer
evidence: He held a professorship with the University of Virginia from 1971 until 1994, and with George Mason University until 2000.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: The Great Global Warming Swindle
evidence: Patrick Michaels – Research Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia Patrick Moore – Early member of Greenpeace and former president, Greenpeace Canada Paul Reiter – Professor, Department of Medical Entomology, Pasteur Institute, Paris Nir Shaviv – Professor, Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem James Shikwati – Economist, Author, and CEO of The African Executive Frederick Singer – Professor Emeritus, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia (Misidentified in the film as Former Director, U.S. National Weather Service.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Some experts think we’re on track to hit 550 ppm by the end of the century, which would cause average global temperatures to rise by 6 degrees Celsius
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: 20th century
evidence: The average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8° Celsius (1.4° Fahrenheit) since 1880; Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15-0.20 °C per decade.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Currently, surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Greenhouse gas
evidence: The oft-cited Mauna Loa average for 2012 is 393.8 ppm, which is a good approximation although typically about 1 ppm higher than the spatial average given above.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Nuclear holocaust
evidence: In one model, the average temperature of Earth following a full thermonuclear war falls for several years by 7 to 8 degrees Celsius (13 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit) on average.
evidence_label: REFUTES
Claim: an individual heatwave triggering coral bleaching cannot be linked to global warming as the process triggering an individual heatwave is fundamentally different from that triggering global warming
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Coral bleaching
evidence: While localized triggers lead to localized bleaching, the large scale coral bleaching events of the recent years have been triggered by global warming.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Coral bleaching
evidence: A global mass coral bleaching has been occurring since 2014 because of the highest recorded temperatures plaguing oceans.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Coral bleaching
evidence: "Diversity of Corals, Algae in Warm Indian Ocean Suggests Resilience to Future Global Warming".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Coral reef
evidence: Similar rapid adaption may protect coral reefs from global warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Great Barrier Reef
evidence: The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority considers the greatest threat to the Great Barrier Reef to be climate change, causing ocean warming which increases coral bleaching.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Scientists just discovered a massive, heretofore unknown, source of nitrogen
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Nitrogen fixation
evidence: Biological nitrogen fixation was discovered by German agronomist Hermann Hellriegel and Dutch microbiologist Martinus Beijerinck.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Nitrogen
evidence: It was first discovered and isolated by Scottish physician Daniel Rutherford in 1772.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Nitrogen
evidence: Dinitrogen difluoride (N2F2) exists as thermally interconvertible cis and trans isomers, and was first found as a product of the thermal decomposition of FN3.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Nitrogen
evidence: The discovery of nitrogen is attributed to the Scottish physician Daniel Rutherford in 1772, who called it noxious air.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Nitrogen
evidence: It is one of the three most used acids (the other two being sulfuric acid and hydrochloric acid) and was first discovered by the alchemists in the 13th century.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: If Houlton’s finding about these vast, previously unknown nitrogen stores holds true, then it would have an enormous impact on global warming predictions.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Arctic
evidence: Climate models predict much greater warming in the Arctic than the global average, resulting in significant international attention to the region.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: General circulation model
evidence: In a projection designed to simulate a future where no efforts are made to reduce global emissions, the likely rise in global average temperature was predicted to be 5.5 °C by 2100.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global cooling
evidence: By the 1970s, scientists were becoming increasingly aware that estimates of global temperatures showed cooling since 1945, as well as the possibility of large scale warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global cooling
evidence: When the model included estimated changes in solar intensity, it gave a reasonable match to temperatures over the previous thousand years and its prediction was that "CO 2 warming dominates the surface temperature patterns soon after 1980."
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Peak oil
evidence: A consensus was emerging that parties to an international agreement would introduce measures to constrain the combustion of hydrocarbons in an effort to limit global temperature rise to the nominal 2 °C that scientists predicted would limit environmental harm to tolerable levels.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: ‘there will not be enough nitrogen available to sustain the high carbon uptake scenarios.’
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Carnivorous plant
evidence: The net uptake of carbon dioxide, and therefore, the plant's potential for growth, must be positive for the plant to survive.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate change and agriculture
evidence: Studies have shown that higher CO2 levels lead to reduced plant uptake of nitrogen (and a smaller number showing the same for trace elements such as zinc) resulting in crops with lower nutritional value.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate change and agriculture
evidence: However, because the ratio of soil organic carbon to nitrogen is mediated by soil biology such that it maintains a narrow range, a doubling of soil organic carbon is likely to imply a doubling in the storage of nitrogen in soils as organic nitrogen, thus providing higher available nutrient levels for plants, supporting higher yield potential.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Miscanthus giganteus
evidence: dead leaves), direct humus accumulation, the well-developed and deep-reaching root system, the low decomposition rates of plant residues due to a high C : N ratio (carbon to nitrogen ratio), and the absence of tillage and subsequently less soil aeration are the reasons for the high carbon sequestration rates.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Miscanthus giganteus
evidence: The authors note that due to the high carbon to nitrogen ratio it is in the field's margins and interspersed woodlands that the majority of the food resources are to be found.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: “Houlton has been exploring this possibility for years.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Farleigh Hungerford Castle
evidence: Edward later fell out with the king over the proposal that the Roman Catholic James II should succeed to the throne on Charles's death, and after the discovery of the Rye House Plot in 1683 the castle was searched by royal officials looking for stocks of weapons that might be used in a possible revolt.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Farleigh Hungerford Castle
evidence: Kightly suggests that the castle was sold to the Houlton family in 1705, rather than 1730; Jackson disagrees.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Marcus Davis
evidence: Both fighters are former boxers and had discussed a potential fight in their futures since early 2008.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Thirty Years' War
evidence: The Last Valley (1959), by John Pick, is about two men fleeing the Thirty Years' War.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Thirty Years' War
evidence: The Last Valley (1971) is a film starring Michael Caine and Omar Sharif, who discover a temporary haven from the Thirty Years' War.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The Arctic’s carbon bomb might be even more potent than we thought […] methane, a shorter-lived but far harder-hitting gas that could cause faster bursts of warming
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Arctic Ocean
evidence: Melting of this ice may release large quantities of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, causing further warming in a strong positive feedback cycle and marine genus and species to become extinct.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Arctic methane emissions
evidence: Melting of this ice may release large quantities of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, causing further warming in a strong positive feedback cycle.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Arctic
evidence: The current Arctic warming is leading to ancient carbon being released from thawing permafrost, leading to methane and carbon dioxide production by micro-organisms.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Arctic
evidence: Release of methane and carbon dioxide stored in permafrost could cause abrupt and severe global warming, as they are potent greenhouse gases.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate change feedback
evidence: Warming is also the triggering variable for the release of carbon (potentially as methane) in the arctic.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: “Although the extent of the summer sea ice after 2006 dropped abruptly to levels not expected until 2050, the predicted 67-per-cent decline in polar bear numbers simply didn’t happen.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Polar bear
evidence: Rising temperatures cause the sea ice to melt earlier in the year, driving the bears to shore before they have built sufficient fat reserves to survive the period of scarce food in the late summer and early fall.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Polar bear
evidence: Between 1987 and 2004, the Western Hudson Bay population declined by 22%, although the population was listed as "stable" as of 2017.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Polar bear
evidence: The proportion of maternity dens on sea ice has changed from 62% between the years 1985 through 1994, to 37% over the years 1998 through 2004.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Polar bear
evidence: Steven Amstrup and other U.S. Geological Survey scientists have predicted two-thirds of the world's polar bears may disappear by 2050, based on moderate projections for the shrinking of summer sea ice caused by climate change, though the validity of this study has been debated.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Polar bear
evidence: Warnings about the future of the polar bear are often contrasted with the fact that worldwide population estimates have increased over the past 50 years and are relatively stable today.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Rather, global polar bear numbers have been stable or slightly improved.”
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Polar bear
evidence: For decades, large-scale hunting raised international concern for the future of the species, but populations rebounded after controls and quotas began to take effect.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Polar bear
evidence: Polar bear population sizes and trends are difficult to estimate accurately because they occupy remote home ranges and exist at low population densities.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Polar bear
evidence: However, in the short term, some polar bear populations in historically colder regions of the Arctic may temporarily benefit from a milder climate, as multiyear ice that is too thick for seals to create breathing holes is replaced by thinner annual ice.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Polar bear
evidence: Warnings about the future of the polar bear are often contrasted with the fact that worldwide population estimates have increased over the past 50 years and are relatively stable today.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Polar bear
evidence: Of the 19 recognized polar bear subpopulations, one is in decline, two are increasing, seven are stable, and nine have insufficient data, as of 2017.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: “For example, Canadian polar bear biologist Ian Stirling learned in the 1970s that spring sea ice in the southern Beaufort Sea periodically gets so thick that seals depart, depriving local polar bears of their prey and causing their numbers to plummet.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
article: Polar bear
evidence: The Arctic is home to millions of seals, which become prey when they surface in holes in the ice in order to breathe, or when they haul out on the ice to rest.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Polar bear
evidence: Unlike brown and black bears, polar bears are capable of fasting for up to several months during late summer and early fall, when they cannot hunt for seals because the sea is unfrozen.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Polar bear
evidence: Then they begin the long walk from the denning area to the sea ice, where the mother can once again catch seals.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Polar bear
evidence: It has been claimed that polar bears will be able to adapt to terrestrial food sources as the sea ice they use to hunt seals disappears.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Polar bear
evidence: Polar bears hunt their preferred food of seals from the edge of sea ice, often living off fat reserves when no sea ice is present.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: many scientists were surprised when other researchers subsequently found that ringed and bearded seals (the primary prey of polar bears) north of the Bering Strait especially thrived with a longer open-water season, which is particularly conducive to fishing
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Bearded seal
evidence: Natural predators of the bearded seal include polar bears, who rely on these seals as a major food source.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Marine mammal
evidence: The polar bear is the most carnivorous species of bear, and its diet primarily consists of ringed (Pusa hispida) and bearded (Erignathus barbatus) seals.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Polar bear
evidence: The polar bear is the most carnivorous member of the bear family, and throughout most of its range, its diet primarily consists of ringed (Pusa hispida) and bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Polar bear
evidence: The polar bear tends to frequent areas where sea ice meets water, such as polynyas and leads (temporary stretches of open water in Arctic ice), to hunt the seals that make up most of its diet.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ringed seal
evidence: Ringed seals are one of the primary prey of polar bears and killer whales, and have long been a component of the diet of indigenous people of the Arctic.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: while it’s true that studies in some regions show polar bears are lighter in weight than they were in the 1980s, there is no evidence that more individuals are starving to death or becoming too thin to reproduce because of less summer ice.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Polar bear
evidence: Unlike brown and black bears, polar bears are capable of fasting for up to several months during late summer and early fall, when they cannot hunt for seals because the sea is unfrozen.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Polar bear
evidence: They still manage to consume some seals, but they are food-deprived in summer as only marine mammal carcasses are an important alternative without sea ice, especially carcasses of the beluga whale.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Polar bear
evidence: A study in Hudson Bay indicated that both the reproductive success and the maternal weight of females peaked in their mid-teens.Maternal success appeared to decline after this point, possibly because of an age-related impairment in the ability to store the fat necessary to rear cubs.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Polar bear
evidence: In Alaska, the effects of sea ice shrinkage have contributed to higher mortality rates in polar bear cubs, and have led to changes in the denning locations of pregnant females.
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Polar bear
evidence: Steven Amstrup and other U.S. Geological Survey scientists have predicted two-thirds of the world's polar bears may disappear by 2050, based on moderate projections for the shrinking of summer sea ice caused by climate change, though the validity of this study has been debated.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The failure of the 2007 polar bear survival model is a simple fact that explodes the myth that polar bears are on their way to extinction.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event
evidence: The Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event, also known as the Cretaceous–Tertiary (K–T) extinction, was a sudden mass extinction of three-quarters of the plant and animal species on Earth, approximately 66 million years ago.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Extinction event
evidence: The most recent and arguably best-known, the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event, which occurred approximately 66 million years ago (Ma), was a large-scale mass extinction of animal and plant species in a geologically short period of time.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Extinction event
evidence: "Fossil record supports evidence of impending mass extinction".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Holocene extinction
evidence: For the first time since the demise of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, we face a global mass extinction of wildlife.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Quaternary extinction event
evidence: The Quaternary period (from 2.588 ± 0.005 million years ago to the present) saw the extinctions of numerous predominantly megafaunal species, which resulted in a collapse in faunal density and diversity and the extinction of key ecological strata across the globe.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Using satellite data rather than tide-gauge data that is normally used to measure sea levels allows for more precise estimates of global sea level, since it provides measurements of the open ocean.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: OSTM/Jason-2
evidence: These very accurate observations of variations in sea surface height—also known as ocean topography—provide information about global sea level, the speed and direction of ocean currents, and heat stored in the ocean.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Remote sensing
evidence: Laser and radar altimeters on satellites have provided a wide range of data.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Remote sensing
evidence: Ultrasound (acoustic) and radar tide gauges measure sea level, tides and wave direction in coastal and offshore tide gauges.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Tide gauges can only measure relative sea level, whilst satellites can also measure absolute sea level changes.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Tide gauge
evidence: A tide gauge is a device for measuring the change in sea level relative to a vertical datum.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Sea level rise of 65 centimeters, or roughly 2 feet would cause significant problems for coastal cities around the world.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Further effects are higher storm-surges and more dangerous tsunamis, displacement of populations, loss and degradation of agricultural land and damage in cities.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: A rise of 2.4 m (8 feet) is physically possible under a high emission scenario but the authors were unable to say how likely.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: Future sea level rise could lead to potentially catastrophic difficulties for shore-based communities in the next centuries: for example, millions of people will be affected in cities such as Miami, Rio de Janeiro, Osaka and Shanghai if following the current trajectory of 3 °C (5.4 °F).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: For example, in 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected a high end estimate of 60 cm (2 ft) through 2099, but their 2014 report raised the high-end estimate to about 90 cm (3 ft).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Sea level rise
evidence: A number of later studies have concluded that a global sea level rise of 200 to 270 cm (6.6 to 8.9 ft) this century is "physically plausible".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: more so than downsizing one’s car, or being vigilant about turning off light bulbs, and certainly more than quitting showering.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Efficient energy use
evidence: Installing LED lighting, fluorescent lighting, or natural skylight windows reduces the amount of energy required to attain the same level of illumination compared to using traditional incandescent light bulbs.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Headlamp
evidence: Intelligent Light System is a headlamp beam control system introduced in 2006 on the Mercedes-Benz E-Class (W211) which offers five different bi-xenon light functions, each of which is suited to typical driving or weather conditions: Country mode Motorway mode Enhanced fog lamps Active light function (Advanced front-lighting system (AFS)) Cornering light function Adaptive Highbeam Assist is Mercedes-Benz' marketing name for a headlight control strategy that continuously automatically tailors the headlamp range so the beam just reaches other vehicles ahead, thus always ensuring maximum possible seeing range without glaring other road users.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: LED lamp
evidence: "Longevity of light bulbs and how to make them last longer".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Phase-out of incandescent light bulbs
evidence: "Raising Awareness of Energy Efficient Light Bulbs Pays off in Rwanda".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Series and parallel circuits
evidence: Consider a very simple circuit consisting of four light bulbs and a 12-volt automotive battery.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: “Which is to say that these beans will be eaten by cows, and the cows will convert the beans to meat, and the humans will eat the meat.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Buffalo meat
evidence: Buffalo are generally fed on coarse feeds; they convert them into the protein-rich lean meat.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Meat
evidence: conversion of human-inedible residues of food crops.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Veganism
evidence: To obtain milk from dairy cattle, cows are made pregnant to induce lactation; they are kept lactating for three to seven years, then slaughtered.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Vegetarianism
evidence: are vehemently against the consumption of meat and eggs (though they do consume and encourage the consumption of milk, butter and cheese).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Why We Love Dogs, Eat Pigs, and Wear Cows
evidence: Carnivores require meat in their diet for survival, but carnists choose to eat meat based on their beliefs.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: In the process, the cows will emit much greenhouse gas, and they will consume far more calories in beans than they will yield in meat, meaning far more clearcutting of forests to farm cattle feed than would be necessary if the beans above were simply eaten by people.”
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Agriculture
evidence: Agriculture contributes to climate change by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, and by the conversion of non-agricultural land such as forest for agricultural use.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Beef
evidence: A simple exchange of beef to soy beans (a common feed source for cattle) in Americans' diets would, according to one estimate, result in meeting between 46 and 74 percent of the reductions needed to meet the 2020 greenhouse gas emission goals of the United States as pledged in 2009.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Livestock
evidence: The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has estimated that agriculture (including not only livestock, but also food crop, biofuel and other production) accounted for about 10 to 12 percent of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (expressed as 100-year carbon dioxide equivalents) in 2005 and in 2010.Cows produce some 570 million cubic metres of methane per day, that accounts for from 35 to 40% of the overall methane emissions of the planet.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Milk
evidence: Compared to plant milks, cow's milk requires the most land and water, and its production results in the greatest amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air pollution, and water pollution.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Vegetarianism
evidence: In addition, animal agriculture is a large source of greenhouse gases.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: When the heat buildup in the ocean is taken into account, global temperatures are rising relentlessly.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Global warming
evidence: Global warming is the long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Currently, surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Although the most common measure of global warming is the increase in the near-surface atmospheric temperature, over 90% of the additional energy stored in the climate system over the last 50 years has warmed ocean water.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming
evidence: Further examples include sea level rise, widespread melting of snow and land ice, increased heat content of the oceans, increased humidity, and the earlier timing of spring events, such as the flowering of plants.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Since the pre-industrial period, global average land temperatures have increased almost twice as fast as global average temperatures.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: “The arc of global warming will be variously steep and less steep,’ said Richard Seager, a climate scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory
evidence: The Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) is a research unit of Columbia University located on a 157-acre (64 ha) campus in Palisades, N.Y., 18 miles (29 km) north of Manhattan on the Hudson River.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory
evidence: The Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University is one of the world's leading research centers developing fundamental knowledge about the origin, evolution and future of the natural world.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Megadrought
evidence: Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sean Solomon
evidence: Sean Carl Solomon (born October 24,1945) is the director of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, where he is also the William B. Ransford Professor of Earth and Planetary Science.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Wallace Smith Broecker
evidence: He was the Newberry Professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University, a scientist at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and a sustainability fellow at Arizona State University.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: The heat extremes were especially pervasive in the Arctic, with temperatures in the fall running 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit above normal across large stretches of the Arctic Ocean.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Arctic Ocean
evidence: Play media Under the influence of the Quaternary glaciation, the Arctic Ocean is contained in a polar climate characterized by persistent cold and relatively narrow annual temperature ranges.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Arctic Ocean
evidence: As recently as 55 million years ago, during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, the region reached an average annual temperature of 10–20 °C (50–68 °F).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: It has been established that the region is at its warmest for at least 4,000 years and the Arctic-wide melt season has lengthened at a rate of 5 days per decade (from 1979 to 2013), dominated by a later autumn freeze-up.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Arctic sea ice decline
evidence: The Arctic Ocean is the mass of water positioned approximately above latitude 65° N. Arctic Sea Ice refers to the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by ice.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: Surface temperature increases are greatest in the Arctic, which has contributed to the retreat of glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: “We indicated 23 years ago — in our 1994 Nature article — that climate models had the atmosphere’s sensitivity to CO2 much too high,” Christy said in a statement.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The sensitivity of temperature to atmospheric gasses, most notably CO 2, is often expressed in terms of the change in temperature per doubling of the concentration of the gas.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: In his first paper on the matter, he estimated that global temperature would rise by around 5 to 6 °C (9.0 to 10.8 °F) if the quantity of CO 2 was doubled.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: For constant humidity they computed a climate sensitivity of 2.3 °C per doubling of CO2 (which they rounded to 2, the value most often quoted from their work, in the abstract of the paper).
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: As defined by the IPCC, climate sensitivity is the "equilibrium temperature rise that would occur for a doubling of CO 2 concentration above pre-industrial levels".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: James Hansen
evidence: They did note that the agreement between the observations and the intermediate scenario was accidental because the climate sensitivity used was higher than current estimates.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Models are too sensitive to increases in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, he said.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Carbon dioxide
evidence: Increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone have correspondingly strengthened their absorption and emission of infrared radiation, causing the rise in average global temperature since the mid-20th century.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: Climate sensitivity is the globally averaged temperature change in response to changes in radiative forcing, which can occur, for instance, due to increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: Climate models of earth, for example the Coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP), are used to simulate the quantity of warming that will occur with rising CO 2 concentrations.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The more sensitive a climate system is to increased greenhouse gases, the more likely it is to have decades when temperatures are much higher or much lower than the longer-term average.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Climate sensitivity
evidence: The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is the temperature increase that would result from sustained doubling of the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere, after the Earth's energy budget and the climate system reach radiative equilibrium.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: climate models predict too much warming in the troposphere
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Microwave Sounding Unit temperature measurements
evidence: Some models show more warming in the troposphere than at the surface, while a slightly smaller number of simulations show the opposite behavior.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Microwave Sounding Unit temperature measurements
evidence: While the satellite data now show global warming, there is still some difference between what climate models predict and what the satellite data show for warming of the lower troposphere, with the climate models predicting slightly more warming than what the satellites measure.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Microwave Sounding Unit temperature measurements
evidence: Climate models predict that as the surface warms, so should the global troposphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Microwave Sounding Unit temperature measurements
evidence: Globally, the troposphere (at the TLT altitude at which the MSU sounder measure) is predicted to warm about 1.2 times more than the surface; in the tropics, the troposphere should warm about 1.5 times more than the surface.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: The Great Global Warming Swindle
evidence: The programme states that all models of greenhouse effect-derived temperature increase predict that the warming will be at its greatest for a given location in the troposphere and at its lowest near the surface of the earth.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: While many scientists have acknowledged the mismatch between model predictions and actual temperature observations, few have really challenged the validity of the models themselves.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: A 2007 study by David Douglass and coworkers, concluded that the 22 most commonly used global climate models used by the IPCC were unable to accurately predict accelerated warming in the troposphere although they did match actual surface warming, concluding "projections of future climate based on these models should be viewed with much caution".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: This result went against a similar study of 19 models which found that discrepancies between model predictions and actual temperature were likely due to measurement errors.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: Certain scientists, skeptics and otherwise, believe this confidence in the models' ability to predict future climate is not earned.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Machine learning
evidence: Loss functions express the discrepancy between the predictions of the model being trained and the actual problem instances (for example, in classification, one wants to assign a label to instances, and models are trained to correctly predict the pre-assigned labels of a set of examples).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Physics
evidence: To that end, experiments are performed and observations are made in order to determine the validity or invalidity of the theory.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: A recent study led by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory climate scientist Ben Santer found that while the models ran hot, the ‘overestimation’ was ‘partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.’
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: A 2007 study by David Douglass and coworkers, concluded that the 22 most commonly used global climate models used by the IPCC were unable to accurately predict accelerated warming in the troposphere although they did match actual surface warming, concluding "projections of future climate based on these models should be viewed with much caution".
evidence_label: REFUTES
article: Nuclear winter
evidence: In 2007, a nuclear winter study, noted that modern computer models have been applied to the Kuwait oil fires, finding that individual smoke plumes are not able to loft smoke into the stratosphere, but that smoke from fires covering a large area[quantify] like some forest fires can lift smoke[quantify] into the stratosphere, and recent evidence suggests that this occurs far more often than previously thought.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Nuclear winter
evidence: A study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research in July 2007, titled "Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences", used current climate models to look at the consequences of a global nuclear war involving most or all of the world's current nuclear arsenals (which the authors judged to be one similar to the size of the world's arsenals twenty years earlier).
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Nuclear winter
evidence: While the highly popularized initial 1983 TTAPS 1-dimensional model forecasts were widely reported and criticized in the media, in part because every later model predicts far less of its "apocalyptic" level of cooling, most models continue to suggest that some deleterious global cooling would still result, under the assumption that a large number of fires occurred in the spring or summer.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Nuclear winter
evidence: While it is believed that the modeled climate-cooling-effects from the mass of soot injected into the stratosphere by 100 firestorms (one to five teragrams) would have been detectable with technical instruments in WWII, five percent of that would not have been possible to observe at that time.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: While volcanic eruptions are natural events, it was the timing of these that had such a noticeable effect on the trend
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: 1257 Samalas eruption
evidence: The Little Ice Age was a period of several centuries during the last millennium during which global temperatures were depressed; the cooling was associated with volcanic eruptions.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Natural disaster
evidence: The effects include the volcanic eruption itself that may cause harm following the explosion of the volcano or falling rocks.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Nuclear winter
evidence: Similar climatic effects to "nuclear winter" followed historical supervolcano eruptions, which plumed sulfate aerosols high into the stratosphere, with this being known as a volcanic winter.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Volcanism
evidence: The amount of gas and ash emitted by volcanic eruptions has a significant effect on the Earth's climate.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Volcano
evidence: The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora created global climate anomalies that became known as the "Year Without a Summer" because of the effect on North American and European weather.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: “‘Those eruptions happened relatively early in our study period, which pushed down temperatures in the first part of the dataset, which caused the overall record to show an exaggerated warming trend,’ Christy said.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Global warming controversy
evidence: A study released in 2009, combined historical weather station data with satellite measurements to deduce past temperatures over large regions of the continent, and these temperatures indicate an overall warming trend.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: John Christy
evidence: This was once quite controversial: From the beginning of the satellite record in late 1978 into 1998 it showed a net global cooling trend, although ground measurements and instruments carried aloft by balloons showed warming in many areas.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: John Christy
evidence: Part of the cooling trend seen by the satellites can be attributed to several years of cooler than normal temperatures and cooling caused by the eruption of the Mount Pinatubo volcano.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: John Christy
evidence: Since the data correction of August 1998 (and the major La Niña Pacific Ocean warming event of the same year), data collected by satellite instruments has shown an average global warming trend in the atmosphere.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: John Christy
evidence: From November 1978 through March 2011, Earth's atmosphere has warmed at an average rate of about 0.14 C per decade, according to the UAHuntsville satellite record.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: ‘While volcanic eruptions are natural events, it was the timing of these that had such a noticeable effect on the trend.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: 1257 Samalas eruption
evidence: The Little Ice Age was a period of several centuries during the last millennium during which global temperatures were depressed; the cooling was associated with volcanic eruptions.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: 1257 Samalas eruption
evidence: The deposits showed that climate disturbances reported at that time were due to a volcanic event, the global spread indicating a tropical volcano as the cause.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Climate change (general concept)
evidence: Small eruptions, with injections of less than 0.1 Mt of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, affect the atmosphere only subtly, as temperature changes are comparable with natural variability.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Volcanism
evidence: The amount of gas and ash emitted by volcanic eruptions has a significant effect on the Earth's climate.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Volcano
evidence: The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora created global climate anomalies that became known as the "Year Without a Summer" because of the effect on North American and European weather.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: If the same eruptions had happened near the more recent end of the dataset, they could have pushed the overall trend into negative numbers, or a long-term cooling,’ Christy said.”
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: Global cooling
evidence: Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted... the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming hiatus
evidence: They used computer simulations of future climate to show that it was "possible, and indeed likely, to have a period as long as a decade or two of 'cooling' or no warming superimposed on a longer-term warming trend."
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: John Christy
evidence: Part of the cooling trend seen by the satellites can be attributed to several years of cooler than normal temperatures and cooling caused by the eruption of the Mount Pinatubo volcano.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Phanerozoic
evidence: The Late Cretaceous featured a cooling trend that would continue into the Cenozoic Era.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Satellite temperature measurements
evidence: The long term cooling in the lower stratosphere occurred in two downward steps in temperature both after the transient warming related to explosive volcanic eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo, this behavior of the global stratospheric temperature has been attributed to global ozone concentration variation in the two years following volcanic eruptions.
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
Claim: policies based on previous climate model output and predictions might need to be reconsidered
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
article: General circulation model
evidence: These models are the basis for model predictions of future climate, such as are discussed by the IPCC.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: General circulation model
evidence: GCMs and global climate models are used for weather forecasting, understanding the climate, and forecasting climate change.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".
evidence_label: SUPPORTS
article: Science
evidence: For example, it is used in quantitative scientific modeling, which can generate new hypotheses and predictions to be tested.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Sensitivity analysis
evidence: Effective Groundwater Model Calibration, with Analysis of Data, Sensitivities, Predictions, and Uncertainty.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Claim: Before human burning of fossil fuels triggered global warming, the continent’s ice was in relative balance
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
article: Antarctica
evidence: The mass balance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole is thought to be slightly positive (lowering sea level) or near to balance.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Coal
evidence: The largest and most long term effect of coal use is the release of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that causes climate change and global warming.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Global warming
evidence: But, more accurately, global warming is the mainly human-caused increase in global surface temperatures and its projected continuation, while climate change includes both global warming and its effects, such as changes in precipitation.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Ice age
evidence: The reflection of energy into space resulted in a global cooling, triggering the Pleistocene Ice Age.
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
article: Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
evidence: "Release of methane from a volcanic basin as a mechanism for initial Eocene global warming".
evidence_label: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO