Hengzongshu/ArticleAgent huggingface dataset:
SEIR (Susceptible - Exposed - Infected - Recovered) approach is a classic modeling method that has frequently been applied to the study of infectious disease epidemiology. However, in the vast majority of SEIR models and models derived from them transitions from one population group to another are described using the mass-action law which assumes population homogeneity. That causes some methodological limitations or even drawbacks, particularly inability to reproduce observable dynamics of key characteristics of infection such as, for example, the incubation period and progression of the disease’s symptoms which require considering different time scales as well as probabilities of different disease trajectories. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to simulate the epidemic dynamics that is based on a system of differential equations with time delays to precisely reproduce a duration of infectious processes (e.g. incubation period of the virus) and competing processes like transition from infected state to the hospitalization or recovery. The suggested modeling approach is fundamental and can be applied to the study of many infectious disease epidemiology. However, due to the urgency of the COVID-19 pandemic we have developed and calibrated the delay-based model of the epidemic in Germany and France using the BioUML platform. Additionally, the stringency index was used as a generalized characteristic of the non-pharmaceutical government interventions implemented in corresponding countries to contain the virus spread. The numerical analysis of the calibrated model demonstrates that adequate simulation of each new wave of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread requires dynamic changes in the parameter values during the epidemic like reduction of the population adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions or enhancement of the infectivity parameter caused by an emergence of novel virus strains with higher contagiousness than original one. Both models may be accessed and simulated at https://gitlab.sirius-web.org/covid-19/dde-epidemiology-model utilizing visual representation as well as Jupyter Notebook.
We investigate the fundamental phenomenon of the spontaneous, noise-induced modulational instability (MI) of a plane wave. The statistical properties of the noise-induced MI, observed previously in numerical simulations and in experiments, have not been explained theoretically.

In this Letter, using the inverse scattering transform (IST) formalism, we propose a theoretical model of the asymptotic stage of the noise-induced MI based on N-soliton solutions of the focusing one-dimensional nonlinear Schrödinger equation. Specifically, we use ensembles of N-soliton bound states having a special semiclassical distribution of the IST eigenvalues, together with random phases for norming constants. To verify our model, we employ a recently developed numerical approach to construct an ensemble of N-soliton solutions with a large number of solitons, N∼100.

Our investigation reveals a remarkable agreement between spectral (Fourier) and statistical properties of the long-term evolution of the MI and those of the constructed multisoliton, random-phase bound states. Our results can be generalized to a broad class of strongly nonlinear integrable turbulence problems.
Reported traditional gender role attitudes (GRAs) have been related to worse mental health in western countries. This study examined the link of GRAs with symptoms of depression and generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) in two Russian cities. We used interview data from the cross-sectional Know Your Heart Study conducted among 5099 adults aged 35-69 in the Russian cities of Arkhangelsk and Novosibirsk between 2015 and 2017. Attitudes about gender inequality and division of labour between women and men at home or in the public sphere were measured by single items. Binary variables indicating presence of symptoms of depression and GAD were defined by a cut-off of ≥ 5 of the PHQ-9 and GAD-7 scores respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine crude and adjusted associations. There was evidence that all types of GRAs were associated with symptoms of depression and GAD consistent with a U-shape after controlling for confounding with stronger evidence for all relationships for depression than for GAD. Odds of depressive symptoms were elevated among participants strongly agreeing to gender inequality and gender division of labour. There was good evidence for effect measure modification by age. The possibilities of measurement error of the exposure and outcomes, residual confounding and reverse causality are important limitations of this study. Agreeing to gender inequality and gender division of labour was associated with reporting symptoms of common mental disorders in Russia. This study adds evidence for a link of GRAs with mental health from a non-western context.
This paper presents a computer system for modelling one-dimensional random variables NMPUD, developed in the laboratory of mathematical modelling of Lyceum No. 130 in Novosibirsk. The results of the numerical experiments and the considerations justifying the practicability for using in the NMPUD system: the elementary densities constructed by the technology of sequential (inserted) substitutions, the densities representing weighted sums of elementary densities (which can be simulated using the modified discrete superposition method), the algorithms for a piecewise linear approximation of unknown densities using a given sample, the algorithms of the modified superposition method for computational modelling of random variables with piecewise linear densities, are also presented.
The idea that chaotic set of quantum vortices can mimic classical turbulence, or at least reproduce many main features, is currently actively being developed. Appreciating significance of the challenging problem of the classical turbulence it can be expressed that the idea to study it in terms of quantized line is indeed very important and may be regarded as a breakthrough. For this reason, this theory should be carefully scrutinized. One of the basic arguments supporting this point of view is the fact that vortex tangle decays at zero temperature, when the apparent mechanism of dissipation (mutual friction) is absent. Since the all possible mechanisms of dissipation of the vortex energy, discussed in the literature, are related to the small scales, it is natural to suggest that the Kolmogorov cascade takes the place with the flow of the energy, just as in the classical turbulence. In a series of recent experiment attenuation of vortex line density was observed and authors attribute this decay to the properties of the Kolmogorov turbulence. In the present work we discuss alternative possibility of decay of the vortex tangle, which is not related to dissipation at small scales. This mechanism is just the diffusive like spreading of the vortex tangle. We discuss a number of the key experiments, considering them both from the point of view of alternative explanation and of the theory of Kolmogorov turbulence in quantum fluids.
The paper aims to look for a satisfactory ontological interpretation of the relationship between a pattern and its “elements” in D. Dennett’s ontology of patterns from the “serious essentialism” perspective by E. J. Lowe. The pattern should be interpreted as “consisting” of “lower-order patterns” which are the “modes” in E. J. Lowe’s ontology, while the pattern and its “elements” are linked by the relation of “metaphysical interdependence” by N. Thompson, representing one of the attitudes of grounding as a metaphysical explanation of a special kind. As a heuristic, a general metaphysical scheme is considered, in which elements of H. Reichenbach’s logic of the relationship between 'abstracta' and 'concreta' , which reveal themselves in D. Dennett’s ontology, such as: “reduction of the abstract to the observed”, “existence by convention” and “existence of the abstract and the observable in the ordinary world”, find an adequate interpretation within the framework of E. J. Lowe’s ontology.
The mechanism by which L-17 induces hypothermia is unknown; it may involve hypothalamic central thermoregulation as well as act via inhibition of energy metabolism.

The study in vivo was carried out on Sprague-Dawley adult rats. Two doses of L-17 were administered (190 mg/kg and 760 mg/kg). Brain metabolites were analyzed in control and treated groups using magnetic resonance spectroscopy, along with blood flow rate measurements in carotid arteries and body temperature measurements. Further in vitro studies on primary cultures from rat hippocampus were carried out to perform a mitochondria function test of L-17 pre-incubation (100 μM, 30 min).

Analysis of brain metabolites showed no significant changes in 190 mg/kg treated group along with a significant reduction in body temperature by 1.5°C. However, administration of L-17 in higher dose 760 mg/kg provoked changes in brain metabolites indicative of neurotoxicity as well as reduction in carotid arteries flow rate. In addition, a balance change of excitatory and inhibitory neurotransmitters was observed. The L-17 pre-incubation with cell primary cultures from rat brain showed no significant changes in mitochondrial function. The results obtained in the study indicate that acute administration of L-17 190 mg/kg in rats induces mild hypothermia with no adverse effects onto brain metabolism.
During a 2016-2017 survey conducted in Isfahan, Lorestan, Markazi, North Khorasan, Razavi Khorasan, South Khorasan and Tehran provinces located in the Central and North-Eastern Iran, about 1000 specimens of Dolichopodidae were collected and identified. Eight dolichopodid species [Dolichopus jaxarticus Stackelberg, 1927, Hydrophorus viridis (Meigen, 1824), Medetera diadema (Linnaeus, 1767), M. lamprostoma Loew, 1871, M. roghii Rampini et Canzoneri, 1979, Tachytrechus kowarzi Mik, 1864, Tachytrechus sogdianus Loew, 1871, and Thinophilus flavipalpis (Zetterstedt, 1843)] are recorded for the first time in Iran. Dolichopus subimmaculatus Kazerani, Pollet, Khaghaninia, 2017, is placed in synonymy with Dolichopus perversus Loew, 1871 (syn. nov.). Lectotype is designated for D. perversus.
Software tools to automatically survey extended hydrogen bond motifs in a large set of crystal structures have recently become available [1,2].When applied to structures stored in the Cambridge Structural Database [3], these tools allow discrimination between common and unusual hydrogen bond motifs.Complete hydrogen bond networks can be described and common substructures can be identified by using the list of motifs present in each structure as a fingerprint [1].The results from such an analysis are particularly useful for the comparison of polymorphs and in the design of cocrystals.The application of automated motif analysis will be demonstrated by discussing results obtained for amino acids, sulfonamides, sulfinamides and for cocrystals containing the corresponding functional groups.We will show that common packing arrangements in different forms can be readily identified by using motif fingerprints.The presence of unusual hydrogen bond motifs will be related to polymorph stability and to unusual experimental conditions.The relevance of data from homomolecular crystals to the design of cocrystals will be assessed by comparing frequent motifs in crystals that contain the same donor and acceptor group either as part of a single molecule or in two components of a cocrystal.
Coronaviruses ( Coronaviridae ) constitute the most extensive family of viruses of the order Nidovirales. Coronaviruses have a wide range of hosts, including mammals ( Alphacoronavirus, Betacoronavirus, Deltacoronavirus, Gammacoronavirus ) and birds ( Deltacoronavirus, Gammacoronavirus ), amphibians ( Alphaletovirus ) and are pathogens of respiratory, intestinal, cardiovascular. Until the beginning of this century, only etiological agents of mild and moderate respiratory diseases were known among pathogenic coronaviruses for humans.

The aim of this review is a comprehensive analysis of current literature data on coronaviruses identified in bats.

This review presents current data on coronaviruses of bats: taxonomic status, spectrum of potential hosts, distribution. The ecological features of coronaviruses of bats are considered in the context of their epidemiological significance. The origin of pathogenic human coronaviruses is discussed.
Tail asymptotics of the solution R to a fixed-point problem of the type R = D Q +∑ 1 N R m are derived under heavy-tailed conditions allowing both dependence between Q and N and the tails to be of the same order of magnitude.

Similar results are derived for a K -class version

with applications to multi-type branching processes and busy periods in multi-class queues.
We present first evidence that the cosine of the CP-violating weak phase 2β is positive, and hence exclude trigonometric multifold solutions of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) Unitarity Triangle using a time-dependent Dalitz plot analysis of B0→D(*)h0 with D→K0Sπ+π− decays, where h0∈{π0,η,ω} denotes a light unflavored and neutral hadron. The measurement is performed combining the final data sets of the BABAR and Belle experiments collected at the Υ(4S) resonance at the asymmetric-energy B factories PEP-II at SLAC and KEKB at KEK, respectively. The data samples contain (471±3)×106B¯B pairs recorded by the BABAR detector and (772±11)×106B¯B pairs recorded by the Belle detector. The results of the measurement are sin2β=0.80±0.14(stat)±0.06(syst)±0.03(model) and cos2β=0.91±0.22(stat)±0.09(syst)±0.07(model). The result for the direct measurement of the angle β of the CKM Unitarity Triangle is β=[22.5±4.4(stat)±1.2(syst)±0.6(model)]°. The measurement assumes no direct CP violation in B0→D(*)h0 decays. The quoted model uncertainties are due to the composition of the D0→K0Sπ+π− decay amplitude model, which is newly established by performing a Dalitz plot amplitude analysis using a high-statistics e+e−→c¯c data sample. CP violation is observed in B0→D(*)h0 decays at the level of 5.1 standard deviations. The significance for cos2β>0 is 3.7 standard deviations. The trigonometric multifold solution π/2−β=(68.1±0.7)° is excluded at the level of 7.3 standard deviations. The measurement resolves an ambiguity in the determination of the apex of the CKM Unitarity Triangle.Received 17 April 2018Revised 22 August 2018DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.121.261801Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article's title, journal citation, and DOI. Funded by SCOAP3.Published by the American Physical SocietyPhysics Subject Headings (PhySH)Research AreasHadronic decaysQuark mixingPhysical SystemsBottom mesonsCharmed mesonsPropertiesCP violationTechniquesLepton collidersParticles & Fields
In this article we consider the mathematical foundations and software implementation of the early diagnosis of computer attacks.

For this we used the JSM method of automatic hypothesis generation and the theory of case-based models. This software outputs hypotheses about the properties and expected consequences of a new computer attack. The system analyses a set of properties of the computer attack known to the user. For this we use the Base of the cyber attack’s precedents, described in the language of fuzzification of Boolean-valued models. Each potential property of the new attack is studied by using the JSM method. This process builds sets of positive and negative hypotheses concerning each property.

giving a set of properties and consequences characteristic of the attack that has yet not happened at the time of analysis. The developed algorithm has polynomial complexity.
It is known that irradiation stress induces late intracellular processes and adaptation.In this paper, we formulate the adaptation hypothesis.On its basis, we present statistical modeling of cellular distributions on the number of chromosomal abnormalities in root meristems of pea seeds that experienced low-dose-rate irradiation, high temperatures, and aging.The modeling shows that multiple appearances of chromosomal abnormalities can be explained as a result of primary or late processes caused by DNA damage, with or without cell selection, which can be described with geometrical or Poisson distributions, respectively.The connections between the late intercellular processes (the "bystander effects") and late intracellular regulatory processes are considered.It is shown that combinations of low-dose-rate irradiation, high temperatures, and aging lead to synergistically increasing instabilities and decreasing seed survivals.Approaches to risk estimation of chromosomal instability are investigated in plant cells and in human blood lymphocytes.Risks of instability were estimated as values of distribution parameters dependent on radiation intensity in ecology and in generations of persons who experienced radioactive fallouts from nuclear tests.We conclude that statistical model of adaptation describes intraand intercellular processes of genetic instability coupled with selection, and that the risks of these processes can be calculated as model parameters.
Background External validation of risk models is critical for risk-stratified breast cancer prevention. We used the Individualized Coherent Absolute Risk Estimation (iCARE) as a flexible tool for risk model development and comparative model validation and to make projections for population risk stratification.

Methods Performance of two recently developed models, one based on the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium analysis (iCARE-BPC3) and another based on a literature review (iCARE-Lit), were compared with two established models (Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool and International Breast Cancer Intervention Study Model) based on classical risk factors in a UK-based cohort of 64 874 white non-Hispanic women (863 patients) age 35–74 years. Risk projections in a target population of US white non-Hispanic women age 50–70 years assessed potential improvements in risk stratification by adding mammographic breast density (MD) and polygenic risk score (PRS).

Results The best calibrated models were iCARE-Lit (expected to observed number of cases [E/O] = 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.87 to 1.11) for women younger than 50 years, and iCARE-BPC3 (E/O = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.93 to 1.09) for women 50 years or older. Risk projections using iCARE-BPC3 indicated classical risk factors can identify approximately 500 000 women at moderate to high risk (>3% 5-year risk) in the target population. Addition of MD and a 313-variant PRS is expected to increase this number to approximately 3.5 million women, and among them, approximately 153 000 are expected to develop invasive breast cancer within 5 years. Conclusions iCARE models based on classical risk factors perform similarly to or better than BCRAT or IBIS in white non-Hispanic women. Addition of MD and PRS can lead to substantial improvements in risk stratification. However, these integrated models require independent prospective validation before broad clinical applications.
Мақалада жаһанды жаулаған Covid-19 пандемиясы салдарынан пайда болған күрделі экономикалық жағдай баяндалған: кедейлердің жағдайы нашарлауы аясында байлардың табысының өсуі орын алу мүмкіндігі аталды. Экономиканың түрлі салаларындағықұрылымдық өзгерістер мазмұндалған. Сарапшылардың талдаулары келтірілген: көмірсутектер нарығындағы, ауыл шаруашылығындағы, құрылыс саласындағыахуал, халыққа көрсетілген қызметтер көлемі, тұтынушылық талап-тілектері сараланған.Мұнай бағасының Қазақстандағы өнеркәсіп өндірісіне әсері, Қазақстанның ЖІӨқалыптастыруға ауыл шаруашылығының қосқан үлесі, Құрылыс жұмыстары көлемінің өзгеру динамикасы, Халықтың қаржылай шығыстарының құрылымы келтірілген. «Қарапайым заттар экономикасы» және «Бизнестің жол картасы» бағдарламаларының маңыздылығы аталған. Жаңа әлемдік тәртіпті қалыптастыру жағдайында жүйелік реформаларға, Ұлт жоспары мен Бес институционалдық реформаға негізделген қуатты серпін қажеттігі аталып, экономикалық дамуға бағытталған стратегиялық мақсат нақтыланған.Қолайлы экономикалық жағдай қалыптасқан жағдайда Қазақстан дағдарысқа дейінгі деңгейге оралып, 2022 жылы қалыпты өсу траекториясына жететіні болжанған.Doing Business рейтингінде Қазақстанның позициясын жақсарту үшін жүйелі жұмыстар жүргізілу мүмкіндігі қарастырылған.
Paleontologists define global extinctions on Earth as a loss of about three-quarters of plant and animal species over a relatively short period of time. At least five global extinctions are documented in the Phanerozoic fossil record (~500-million-year period): ~65, 200, 260, 380, and 440 million years ago. In addition, there is evidence of global extinctions in earlier periods of life on Earth – during the Late Cambrian (~500 million years ago) and Ediacaran periods (more than 540 million years ago). There is still no common opinion on the causes of their occurrence. The current study is a systematized review of the data on recorded extinctions of complex life forms on Earth from the moment of their occurrence during the Ediacaran period to the modern period. The review discusses possible causes for mass extinctions in the light of the influence of abiogenic factors, planetary or astronomical, and the consequences of their actions. We evaluate the pros and cons of the hypothesis on the presence of periodicity in the extinction of Phanerozoic marine biota. Strong evidence that allows us to hypothesize that additional mechanisms associated with various internal biotic factors are responsible for the emergence of extinctions in the evolution of complex life forms is discussed. Developing the idea of the internal causes of periodicity and discontinuity in evolution, we propose our own original hypothesis, according to which the bistability phenomenon underlies the complex dynamics of the biota development, which is manifested in the form of global extinctions. The bistability phenomenon arises only in ecosystems with predominant sexual reproduction. Our hypothesis suggests that even in the absence of global abiotic catastrophes, extinctions of biota would occur anyway. However, our hypothesis does not exclude the possibility that in different periods of the Earth’s history the biota was subjected to powerful external influences that had a significant impact on its further development, which is reflected in the Earth’s fossil record.
Experiments were carried out on methacrylic acid derivatives with bulky substituents (isodecyl and benzyl).

Polymerization was carried out using the method of radiation initiation. The regularities of its formation are investigated. The conditions for obtaining a homogeneous copolymer are determined.

A polymer with a molecular weight of more than 10 6 g/mol was obtained. An increase in the viscosity of the copolymer with an increase in the temperature of the solution was shown.