# D&D.Sci: The Choosing Ones

*This is a D&D.Sci scenario: a puzzle where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset.*

*Thank you to Juan Vasquez for playtesting.*

*Intended Difficulty: ~3.5/5*

The fairy in your bedroom explains that she is a champion of Fate, tasked with whisking mortals into mysterious realms of wonderment and (mild) peril; there, they forge friendships with mythical creatures, do battle with ancient evils, and return to their mundane lives having gained the confidence that comes with having saved a world[^ox2s477t8d]. But there’s an unusually large, important world experiencing an unusually non-mild amount of peril - she’d even go so far as to call it *moderate* peril! - and in this circumstance, only the best will suffice. For this reason, she fervently and humbly entreats you . . .

. . . to use your Data Science skills to help her decide which potential Chosen One she should Choose.

(Upon hearing this last part, your mounting concern immediately dissipates. Adventures in a mysterious realm of wonderment would be hard to schedule around, but you’re always up for spending an evening on a Data Science problem, especially if it might mean a chance to collect favors from the fae.)

Seeing your face brighten, the fairy hands you [a table](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/H-B-P/d-and-d-sci-Choosing/refs/heads/main/data.csv) of her colleagues’[^npa7tyy0uan] predictions of percentage success rates[^uzl4gh49cug] for past heroes, alongside said heroes’ actual outcomes, and [a table](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/H-B-P/d-and-d-sci-Choosing/refs/heads/main/candidate_data.csv) of their predictions for the prospective Chosen. Whom will you have her send?

Bonus Objectives
----------------

The fairy[^b855pajn885] figures that, if she’s breaking the taboos prohibiting seeking advice from a mortal, she might as well not do things by halves. Her further questions:

1.  Which of her colleagues makes the best / most useful predictions, when considered in isolation?
2.  Which (if any) of her colleagues could be considered redundant?
3.  If your choice of Chosen were unavailable, which of the forty candidates would you consider the second- and third-best options?

* * *

I’ll post an answerkey, along with an explanation of how I generated the dataset, sometime on Monday 26th May. I’m giving you nine days, but the task shouldn’t take more than an evening or two; use Excel, R, Python, or whatever other tools you think are appropriate. Let me know in the comments if you have any questions about the scenario.

If you want to investigate collaboratively and/or call your choices in advance, feel free to do so in the comments; however, please use [spoiler blocks](https://www.lesswrong.com/w/guide-to-the-lesswrong-editor) or [rot13](https://rot13.com/) when sharing inferences/strategies/decisions, so people intending to fly solo can look for clarifications without being spoiled.

[^ox2s477t8d]: . . . except when they fail. 

[^npa7tyy0uan]: The fairy notes, in passing, that before her workplace hired a full-time Healer her colleagues would occasionally take sick days; the predictions for fairies who couldn't be there to make them are recorded as zeroes. 

[^uzl4gh49cug]: You try asking for the information they used to make those predictions, but she just stonewalls you, muttering something about “unquantifiable truths”, “incomprehensible to mortal minds” and “data protection legislation”. She does, however, offer a larger table representing everyone who could have been Chosen and whether they actually were. 

[^b855pajn885]: You didn’t think to ask her name early on, and saying anything now would just be awkward.