# AI Doom Markets

I want to draw your attention to some AI doom markets I created on manifold.

1.  The most active one is "If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?": [https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/if-ai-kills-everyone-how-will-it-do](https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/if-ai-kills-everyone-how-will-it-do). Interestingly, most likely option right now is "Gradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze", and then, more predictably, goes "Engineered pandemic".
2.  I just created "If AI wipes out humanity, which organization will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?": [https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/if-ai-wipes-out-humanity-which-orga](https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/if-ai-wipes-out-humanity-which-orga). It's empty right now, so probabilities are meaningless. I personally think it would be Anthropic, if I have to select one (because it looks like RSI will be launched by Anthropic firstly).
3.  Another, rather non-serious market - "If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?": [https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/if-an-ai-wipes-out-humanity-on-eart](https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/if-an-ai-wipes-out-humanity-on-eart). However, it reveals that currently people don't believe that optimized not-deep-learning-based successors will have to be created by AIs to achieve enough of strategic advantage to wipe out humanity.
4.  2 relevant markets about Yudkowsky's opinions:

4.1. "Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?": [https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor](https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor)

4.2. "Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?": [https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor-f2h2nq5epx](https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor-f2h2nq5epx)

5.  "Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?": [https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-international-mora](https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-international-mora)
6.  "Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development":

6.1. By 2030: [https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-a-military-operation-312w0l1eba](https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-a-military-operation-312w0l1eba)

6.2. By 2035: [https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-a-military-operation](https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-a-military-operation)

And related markets by other people:

7.  "If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?": [https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/if-ai-wipes-out-humanity-will-it-re](https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/if-ai-wipes-out-humanity-will-it-re)
8.  "If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?": [https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/if-ai-wipes-out-humanity-what-will](https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/if-ai-wipes-out-humanity-what-will)
9.  "Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?": [https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-ai-wipe-out-all-biological-lif](https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-ai-wipe-out-all-biological-lif)

Note that many markets are not liquid. But let's make them liquid!