# Progress links and tweets, 2022-12-20

I’ve been traveling, so this one is covering the last few weeks.

**The Progress Forum**
----------------------

*   [Patrick McKenzie AMA](https://progressforum.org/posts/ManARnErMRFEvzffo/patrick-mckenzie-ama). See also his [retrospective on VaccinateCA](https://www.worksinprogress.co/issue/the-story-of-vaccinateca/)
*   [Works in Progress Issue 9](https://progressforum.org/posts/YiPYjiE8gMAbQAxxB/works-in-progress-issue-09-is-out-today)
*   [A “progress” alternative to GiveWell?](https://progressforum.org/posts/wG5htRMErwxtNMcSi/progress-alternative-to-givewell)
*   [Applications open for AGI safety fundamentals course](https://progressforum.org/posts/RXsCeKsJmpTuQTsSs/applications-open-for-agi-safety-fundamentals-alignment)
*   [Maybe a little bit of naïveté is good?](https://progressforum.org/posts/xFnwAGkTahKknMBqR/maybe-a-little-bit-of-naivete-is-good) (Eli Dourado). My take: [not naïveté, but vision](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1603563904981815296)
*   [The false dichotomy between peace and prosperity versus ambition and exploration](https://progressforum.org/posts/pgad37kxSC9yND8Ba/beyond-a-better-world)
*   [Two bits of wisdom about research that are often in tension](https://progressforum.org/posts/bjnXEK4Cs2A3Cpas7/bottling-lightning) (Ben Reinhardt)
*   [The Empire State Building and the World Trade Center](https://progressforum.org/posts/mJiWFciJctmETgsHP/building-fast-and-slow-the-empire-state-building-and-the) (Brian Potter), also [Part 2](https://progressforum.org/posts/HawhBWsud4WiPzAe3/building-fast-and-slow-part-ii-the-world-trade-center)
*   [When scientists thought heat was a fluid](https://progressforum.org/posts/uyq4JPApcg8Gc7mH7/age-of-invention-counting-caloric) (Anton Howes)
*   [The state of NYC housing abundance](https://progressforum.org/posts/bguu6fawmrGJiZjmQ/the-enemy-s-gate-is-down-the-state-of-nyc-housing-abundance)
*   [Progress book recommendations thread](https://progressforum.org/posts/coQrDmszdnktdxpit/list-of-book-recommendations) (add your recs please!)

**Announcements**
-----------------

*   [OpenAI launches ChatGPT](https://chat.openai.com/) (via [@sama](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1598038815599661056))
*   [Net energy gain from fusion achieved](https://twitter.com/jordanbramble/status/1602040970123452416) (@jordanbramble)
*   [The Collegiate Propulsive Lander Challenge: students building self-landing rockets](https://landerchallenge.space/) (!)
*   [Nucleate venture fellowship + $2M in prizes for bio founders](https://nucleatehq.medium.com/nucleate-announces-2m-venture-prizes-and-nucleate-venture-fellows-in-partnership-with-pillar-vc-dfd0dc2c11c9) (via [@MichaelRetchin](https://twitter.com/MichaelRetchin/status/1604152687724937216))
*   [Cruise expanding coverage to the full 7x7 of San Francisco, 24/7](https://twitter.com/kvogt/status/1603548091772465154) (@kvogt)
*   [The Academy of Thought and Industry (who commissioned my progress course) is hiring a liberal arts teacher](https://twitter.com/mbateman/status/1598703604533035009) (@mbateman)
*   [ARIA Research is hiring for many roles](https://twitter.com/ilangur/status/1598314106783776772) (@ilangur)
*   [Readwise launches their read-later app](https://readwise.io/read) (via [@homsiT](https://twitter.com/homsiT/status/1603143634047705089))

**Links**
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*   [The world needs processed food](https://www.wired.com/story/processed-food-health-meat-substitute-environment/) (Hannah Ritchie in *WIRED*, via [@tonymmorley](https://twitter.com/tonymmorley/status/1597897874079350784))
*   [Why the age of American progress ended](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/01/science-technology-vaccine-invention-history/672227/) (Derek Thompson). See [my reactions](https://rootsofprogress.org/beyond-the-moment-of-invention)
*   [Mike Maples interviews Blake Scholl about supersonic flight and Boom](https://greatness.floodgate.com/episodes/blake-scholl-how-boom-supersonic-took-flight)
*   [The climate field as an assortment of “tribes”](https://nadia.xyz/climate-tribes) (Nadia Asparouhova)
*   [Warren Weaver’s 1946 guide for Rockefeller grantmakers](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zZ0QVL0ReUfkxVaMo28uJtYrtncOCSxt/view) (via [@abiylfoyp](https://twitter.com/abiylfoyp/status/1597973119540817921))
*   [Homelessness is a housing problem](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/01/homelessness-affordable-housing-crisis-democrats-causes/672224/) (Jerusalem Demsas in *The Atlantic*)
*   [Green card backlogs are impossibly long](https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/immigration-wait-times-quotas-have-doubled-green-card-backlogs-are-long) (some [measured in centuries!](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1597324678422736896))
*   [China will depopulate over the next 40 years, while India will add the same number of people as China loses](https://srajagopalan.substack.com/p/why-everyone-should-pay-more-attention) (Shruti Rajagopalan)

[![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FirUWlDUcAEkiuR.jpg)](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FirUWlDUcAEkiuR.jpg)

**Queries**
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*   [Suggested readings on progress and energy intensity?](https://progressforum.org/posts/qfsEonRYbKRwmjucy/how-is-progress-correlated-with-energy-intensity)
*   [Stories where the good guys have the grand plans / projects?](https://twitter.com/TylerAlterman/status/1599447940090630144) (@TylerAlterman)
*   [Why was the B-21 built in budget while the F-35 was a mess?](https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1598884829390458880) (@Scholars_Stage)
*   [How did printers “photocopy” before photocopy?](https://twitter.com/PMatzko/status/1601215937319174146) (@PMatzko)
*   [Book recommendations on modern medicine or public health?](https://twitter.com/salonium/status/1601612776958754816) (@salonium)
*   [What are the best books/podcasts/people to follow on nuclear energy?](https://twitter.com/sriramk/status/1603478866487496704) (@sriramk)
*   [If we get transformative AI, what will GDP per capita be in 2040?](https://twitter.com/elidourado/status/1603114188703993857) (@elidourado)
*   [Why so few takes on permitting reform from nuclear folks?](https://twitter.com/J_Lovering/status/1603849532944838656) (@J_Lovering)
*   [Do you have a model of how to approach the problem of progress?](https://progressforum.org/posts/K4BixxpHLurET92md/do-you-have-a-model-of-how-to-approach-the-problem-of)
*   [What sports were being played 200 years ago?](https://twitter.com/waitbutwhy/status/1602751534005035009) (@waitbutwhy)
*   [What are some stories that feature getting spare parts for inventing from a junk yard?](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1603914065474043904)

**Quotes**
----------

*   [Mark Twain to Walt Whitman: “What great births you have witnessed!”](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1604643956763287552)
*   [Nuclear power construction can require creative solutions—like midget welders](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1598540185561612289)
*   [The field of physics moved very rapidly in the ’30s](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1598539726193131521)
*   [The spirit of progress, from an 1848 abolitionist pamphlet by Theodore Parker](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1597329507836272640)
*   [“A hedgehog… cannot accept that he knows only many things. He seeks to know one big thing, and strives without ceasing to give reality a unifying shape”](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1604549966097092608)

**Tweets**
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*   [Why we stopped using draft horses, despite the romanticism of certain French towns](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1598068040562008065)
*   [AI is giving computers intuition](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1599533543889448960)
*   [LLMs will take either side of an argument depending on the prompt](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1598730679818555392)
*   [Your can improve your “gut” judgment by priming it with rational thinking](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1597982345877151744)
*   [Brandolini’s Shadow](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1603852747694309376)

**Retweets**
------------

*   [Science has fulfilled Jesus’s message beyond his wildest dreams](https://twitter.com/curiouswavefn/status/1597277520474173440) (@curiouswavefn)
*   [The tin can is underrated](https://twitter.com/_brianpotter/status/1597709484109234177) (@_brianpotter)
*   [Golden Rice is finally arriving](https://twitter.com/stewartbrand/status/1597397379837177857) (@stewartbrand)
*   [Why steam turbines are not a good idea for fusion energy](https://twitter.com/elidourado/status/1602331689182810113) (@elidourado)
*   [It’s time to close the book on the amyloid hypothesis](https://twitter.com/schrag_matthew/status/1597860207513636864) (@schrag_matthew)
*   [ChatGPT scores 1020 on the SAT](https://twitter.com/davidtsong/status/1598767389390573569) (@davidtsong)
*   [AI progress has gone exponential and is likely to speed up even further](https://twitter.com/zachtratar/status/1599474886287970304) (@zachtratar)
*   [Startlingly effective AI tutoring is coming](https://twitter.com/mbateman/status/1597246846053003265) (@mbateman)
*   [Cheating is a minor issue and the AI cheating arms race doesn’t matter](https://twitter.com/mbateman/status/1598876316794658818) (@mbateman)
*   [Chaining ChatGPT and Midjourney to generate images from a concept](https://twitter.com/GuyP/status/1598020781065527296) (@GuyP)

[![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fi1PVU_XEAUSE-K.jpg)](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fi1PVU_XEAUSE-K.jpg)

**Charts**
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*   [Your income would be double today if TFP growth hadn’t stagnated](https://twitter.com/elidourado/status/1600569373579690019) (@elidourado)

[![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjZdWXIWQBAJWHT.png)](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjZdWXIWQBAJWHT.png)

*   [It’s a very good time to get a mortgage, taking the long-term view](https://twitter.com/charlesjkenny/status/1598315489670971393) (@charlesjkenny)

[![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fi5bZpHXEAA5IL_.jpg)](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fi5bZpHXEAA5IL_.jpg)