# Announcing Manifest 2023 (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)

Forecasting Festival hosted by Manifold
=======================================

TL;DR: [Manifold](https://www.notion.so/Manifest-2023-ff3d97547d104c6b9acdf7966ef79169?pvs=21) is hosting a conference! 🥳 Chat with the Manifold team, special guests like Robin Hanson, Shayne Coplan, Patrick McKenzie, Dylan Matthews, Destiny, Aella, and more at our inaugural in-person gathering of the forecasting & prediction market community.

More info & buy tickets: [manifestconference.net](http://manifestconference.net/)

WHEN: Sept 22-24

WHERE: Berkeley, CA

WHO: Everyone in the forecasting, EA, and LW communities. If you're reading this, you're invited!

Join the Discord [here](https://discord.gg/jHghsvbUR8) :)

Why should I come?
==================

Forecasting and prediction markets are effective ways of improving our judgement and decision-making — most people in the Effective Altruism and LessWrong communities will feel right at home at Manifest.

Here are extra reasons to come:

*   you think forecasting & prediction markets are impactful/fun/cool/rational/intriguing/etc
*   you want to vibe with other forecasting nerds
*   you want to engage & network with the forecasting community (find jobs/recruit hires/see what’s out there)
*   you want to meet & chat with the Manifold team and our [special guests](http://manifestconference.net/speakers) (including Robin Hanson, Shayne Coplan, Patrick McKenzie, Dylan Matthews, Destiny, Aella, and [more](http://manifestconference.net/speakers)!)
*   you want enjoy the gorgeous Rose Garden Inn
*   …or if you like memes?

![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/rBGote8y73jpp82BN/b5yjxzffljigyhky7hsx)

A day at Manifest
=================

Everything’s optional. There will always be a bunch of sessions running concurrently, but this is an example of what your day at Manifest might look like:

10-11 — Opening session

11-12 — Fireside chat: Robin Hanson

12-1 — Lunch & mingling

1-2 — Estimathon: fermi estimation with prizes and steep competition!

2-3 — Speed friending: a few chats with other friendly, ambitious forecasting nerds :)

3-4 — Break: relax, vibe, unwind, chill, destress, etc

4-5 — Panel: Forecasting Founders (hear from Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, Insight Predictions, and more!)

5-6 — Games & markets: chess, poker, and prediction markets!

6-7 — Dinner & mingling

7-8 — Workshop: How to Write *Good* Forecasting Questions

8-12 — [Murder She Bet](http://murdershebet.com/): a murder mystery + a low-tech prediction market = fun!

Who else is coming?
===================

The rest of the forecasting & prediction market community. Current speakers & special guests include:

*   The whole Manifold team, including co-founders Austin Chen and Stephen & James Grugett
*   [Robin Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/) (economist & professor)
*   [Shayne Coplan](http://polymarket.com/) (CEO of Polymarket)
*   [Patrick McKenzie](https://www.kalzumeus.com/) (writer, Advisor at Stripe)
*   [Dylan Matthews](https://www.vox.com/authors/dylan-matthews) (Head writer at Future Perfect, Vox)
*   [Destiny](https://destiny.gg/) (streamer & political streamer)
*   [Aella](https://knowingless.com/) (sex researcher & writer)
*   [Josh Rosenberg](https://forecastingresearch.org/) (CEO of the Forecasting Research Institute)
*   [Rational Animations](https://www.youtube.com/@RationalAnimations/featured) (Rationality Youtuber)
*   [Byrne Hobart](https://www.thediff.co/) (Author of The Diff)
*   [Cate Hall](http://alvea.bio/) (CEO of Alvea)
*   [Robert Miles](https://www.youtube.com/@RobertMilesAI) (AI safety researcher & writer)
*   …and more to be announced!

![Speakers & Special Guests (listed at manifestconference.net/speakers)](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/rBGote8y73jpp82BN/xymyvluj6zpoznqovn0y)

For the most up-to-date info, see [manifestconference.net/speakers](http://manifestconference.net/speakers) :)

Where can I buy tickets?
========================

Buy tickets & check the most up-to-date info on the [Manifest website](http://manifestconference.net/tickets)! Tickets are free for students and employees of forecasting organizations.

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/6c86b63bd0def8b4ea6e5e171ebf988be5978cf77e4b59f6.png)