# Overcoming Bias Anthology

**Part 1: Our Thinking**
========================

**Near and Far**
----------------

1 [Abstract/Distant Future Bias](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/abstractdistanthtml)

2 [Abstractly Ideal, Concretely Selfish](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/abstractly-ideal-concretely-selfishhtml)

3 [We Add Near, Average Far](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/we-add-near-average-farhtml)

4 [Why We Don't Know What We Want](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/why-we-dont-know-what-we-wanthtml)

5 [We See the Sacred from Afar, to See It Together](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/sacredness-as-unity-induced-abstractionhtml)

6 [The Future Seems Shiny](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the-future-seems-shinyhtml)

7 [Doubting My Far Mind](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/doubting-my-far-mindhtml)

**Disagreement**
----------------

8 [Beware the Inside View](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/beware-the-insihtml)

9 [Are Meta Views Outside Views?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/are-meta-viewshtml)

10 [Disagreement Is Near-Far Bias](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/disagreement-is-nearfar-biashtml)

11 [Others' Views Are Detail](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/others-views-are-detailhtml)

12 [Why Be Contrarian?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/why-be-contrarianhtml)

13 [On Disagreement, Again](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/on-disagreement-againhtml)

14 [Rationality Requires Common Priors](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/rationality-requires-common-priorshtml)

15 [Might Disagreement Fade Like Violence?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/disagreementfadehtml)

**Biases**
----------

16 [Reject Random Beliefs](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/reject-random-bhtml)

17 [Chase Your Reading](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/chase-your-readinghtml)

18 [Against Free Thinkers](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/against_free_thhtml)

19 [Eventual Futures](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/eventual-futureshtml)

20 [Seen vs. Unseen Biases](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/seen_vs_unseen_html)

21 [Law as No-Bias Theatre](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/law_as_nobias_thtml)

22 [Benefit of Doubt = Bias](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/benefit_of_doubhtml)

**Part 2: Our Motives**
=======================

**Signaling**
-------------

23 [Decision Theory Remains Neglected](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/decision-theory-remains-neglectedhtml)

24 [What Function Music?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/29816html)

25 [Politics isn't about Policy](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/politics-isnt-ahtml)

26 [Views Aren't About Sights](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/views-arent-about-sightshtml)

27 [Why Do Bets Look Bad?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/why-do-bets-look-badhtml)

28 [Homo Hypocritus](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/homo-hipocritushtml)

29 [Resolving Your Hypocrisy](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/resolving_your_html)

30 [Errors, Lies, and Self-Deception](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/errors-lies-and-self-deceptionhtml)

**Norms**
---------

31 [Enforce Common Norms On Elites](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/enforce-common-norms-on-eliteshtml)

32 [Identity Norms](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/identity-normshtml)

33 [Exclusion As A Substitute For Norms, Law, & Governance](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/exclusion-as-a-substitute-for-norms-law-governancehtml)

34 [How Idealists Aid Cheaters](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/how-idealists-aid-cheatershtml)

35 [Beware Mob War Strategy](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/beware-mob-war-strategyhtml)

36 [Automatic Norms](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/automatic-normshtml)

37 [10 Implications of Automatic Norms](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/10-implications-of-automatic-normshtml)

38 [Automatic Norm Lessons](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/automatic-norm-lessonshtml)

39 [Automatic Norms in Academia](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/automatic-norm-exampleshtml)

**Fiction**
-----------

40 [Plot Holes & Blame Holes](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/blame-holes-like-plot-holeshtml)

41 [Fairy Tales Were Cynical](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/fairy-tales-were-cynicalhtml)

42 [Why Fiction Lies](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/why-fiction-lieshtml)

43 [Biases Of Fiction](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/biases-of-fictionhtml)

44 [Why We Fight Over Fiction](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/why-we-fight-over-fictionhtml)

45 [Stories Are Like Religion](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/stories-are-like-religionhtml)

46 [More Stories As Religion](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/more-stories-as-religionhtml)

**The Dreamtime**
-----------------

47 [This is the Dream Time](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/this-is-the-dream-timehtml)

48 [DreamTime](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/dreamtimehtml)

49 [Dreamtime Social Games](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/dreamtime-gameshtml)

50 [We Moderns Are Status-Drunk](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/our-big-wealth-status-mistakehtml)

51 [Earth: A Status Report](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/earth-a-status-reporthtml)

52 [On Teen Angst](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/on-teen-angsthtml)

**Part 3: Our Institutions**
============================

**Prediction Markets**
----------------------

53 [Prediction Markets "Fail" To Mooch](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/prediction-markets-fail-to-moochhtml)

54 [Seeking Robust Credible Expertise Buyers](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/seeking-robust-credible-expertise-buyershtml)

55 [Prediction Markets Need Trial and Error](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/prediction-markets-need-experimentationhtml)

56 [New-Hire Prediction Markets](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/new-hire-prediction-marketshtml)

57 [Shoulda-Listened Futures](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/shoulda-listened-futureshtml)

58 [Brand Truth Narrowly](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/brand-truth-narrowlyhtml)

**Academia**
------------

59 [Fixing Academia Via Prediction Markets](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/how-to-reform-academia-with-prediction-marketshtml)

60 [Intellectual Prestige Futures](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/intellectual-prestige-futureshtml)

61 [Academic Stats Prediction Markets](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/academic-stats-prediction-marketshtml)

62 [How To Fund Prestige Science](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/how-to-fund-prestige-sciencehtml)

**Medicine**
------------

63 [Medical Doubts OpEd](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/medical-doubts-opedhtml)

64 [Medical Market Failures](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/medical-market-failureshtml)

**Paternalism**
---------------

65 [Paternalism Is About Status](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/explaining-paternalismhtml)

66 [Rulesy Folks Push Paternalism](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/rulesy-folks-push-paternalismhtml)

67 [Universal Basic Dorms](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/universal-basic-dormshtml)

**Law**
-------

68 [Elites Must Rule](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/elites-must-rulehtml)

69 [Status App Concept](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/status-app-concepthtml)

70 [Our Prestige Obsession](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/our-prestige-obsessionhtml)

71 [Yay Stability Rents](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/for-stability-rentshtml)

72 [Conditional Harberger Tax Games](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/conditional-harberger-tax-gameshtml)

73 [Reliable Private-Enough Physical Identity](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/reliable-private-human-identityhtml)

74 [Freedom Isn't Free](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/freedom-isnt-freehtml)

75 [Quality Regs Say 'High Is Good'](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/quality-regs-say-high-is-goodhtml)

76 [Socialism: A Gift You'd Exchange?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/socialism-a-gift-youd-exchangehtml)

77 [Vouch For Pandemic Passports](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/vouch-for-pandemic-passportshtml)

78 [Can We Tame Political Minds?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/can-we-tame-political-mindshtml)

79 [Consider Reparations](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/consider-reparationshtml)

80 [Regulating Infinity](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/regulating-infinityhtml)

81 [Privately Enforced & Punished Crime](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/privately-enforced-punished-crimehtml)

82 [Fine Grain Futarchy Zoning Via Harberger Taxes](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/fine-grain-futarchy-zoning-via-harberger-taxeshtml)

**Part 4: Our Past**
====================

**Farmers and Foragers**
------------------------

83 [Fear Made Farmers](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/fear-made-farmershtml)

84 [Forage vs Farm Future](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/forager-v-farmer-futurehtml)

85 [Two Types of People](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/two-types-of-peoplehtml)

86 [Forager v Farmer, Elaborated](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/forager-v-farmer-elaboratedhtml)

87 [Rome As Semi-Foragers](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/romans-foreshadow-industryhtml)

88 [Self-Control Is Slavery](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/self-control-is-slaveryhtml)

89 [School Is To Submit](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/school-is-to-submithtml)

90 [Why Grievances Grow](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/egalitarian-complaintshtml)

91 [The World Forager Elite](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the-world-forager-elitehtml)

**History as Exponential Modes**
--------------------------------

92 [The Great Cycle Rule](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the-great-cycle-rulehtml)

93 [The Labor-From-Factories Explosion](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the-labor-from-factories-explosionhtml)

94 [Lost Advanced Civilizations](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/lost-advanced-civilizationshtml)

**The Great Filter**
--------------------

95 [Try-Try or Try-Once Great Filter?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/try-try-or-try-once-great-filterhtml)

96 [Great Filter with Set-Backs, Dead-Ends](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/great-filter-steps-with-set-backs-dead-endshtml)

97 [Seeing ANYTHING Other Than Huge-Civ Is Bad News](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/what-shows-smaller-future-filterhtml)

98 [Our Level in the Great Filter](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/response-to-lineweaverhtml)

99 [At Least Two Filters](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/at-least-two-filtershtml)

100 [Fertility: The Big Problem](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/fertility-the-big-problemhtml)

**Part 5: Our Future**
======================

**Aliens**
----------

101 [Humans Are Early](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/humans-are-earlyhtml)

102 [An Alien War Nightmare](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/an-alien-war-nightmarehtml)

103 [Non-Grabby Legacies](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/non-grabby-legacieshtml)

104 [Why We Can't See Grabby Aliens](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/why-we-cant-see-grabby-alienshtml)

105 [Beware General Visible Near Prey](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/beware-general-visible-near-preyhtml)

106 [If The Future Is Big](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/long-term-growth-implicationshtml)

**UFOs**
--------

107 [UFOs – What The Hell?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/ufos-what-the-hellhtml)

108 [On UFOs-As-Aliens Priors](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/on-ufo-as-aliens-priorshtml)

109 [My Awkward Inference](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/my-awkward-situation)

110 [UFO Stylized Social Facts](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/social-ufo-stylized-factshtml)

111 [Explaining Stylized UFO Facts](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/explaining-stylized-ufo-factshtml)

**The Age of Em**
-----------------

112 [Why Age of Em Will Happen](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/why-age-of-em-will-happenhtml)

113 [How To Not Die (Soon)](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/how-to-not-die-soonhtml)

114 [How Does Brain Code Differ?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/how-does-brain-code-differhtml)

115 [Progeny Probabilities: Souls, Ems, Quantum](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/progeny-probs-human-em-quantumhtml)

116 [Em Redistribution](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/em-redistributionhtml)

**Artificial Intelligence**
---------------------------

117 [A.I. Old-Timers](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/roger-shank-aihtml)

118 [How Lumpy AI Services?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/how-lumpy-ai-serviceshtml)

119 [A History Of Foom](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/a-history-of-foomhtml)

120 [I Still Don't Get Foom](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/30855html)

121 [Foom Justifies AI Risk Efforts Now](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/foom-justifies-ai-risk-efforts-nowhtml)

122 [Is The City-ularity Near?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/is-the-city-ularity-nearhtml)

123 [The Betterness Explosion](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the-betterness-explosionhtml)

124 [An Outside View of AI Control](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/an-outside-view-of-ai-controlhtml)

125 [AI Risk, Again](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/ai-risk-again)