# Predictable Identities - Midpoint Review

  

_Predictable Identities_ is a series that [I’m writing on Ribbonfarm](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/series/predictable-identities/); you can also track its chronological progress [on Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2019/02/20/predictable-identities/) with short summaries of each post. The 17th post in the series is below, summarizing the story so far and providing links to all the preceding posts in a narrative, rather than chronological order.

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Predictable Identities is 16 posts in, which is going much better than I would’ve predicted. It’s time to review what we covered so far: the principles of predictive processing and how we apply them to _other people_.

Our brains constantly [predict sensory inputs using a hierarchy of models](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/02/20/predictable-identities-1/). Learning new and better models improves our predictive ability in the long term but can be [so painful in the short term](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/05/22/predictable-identities-10-big-updates/) that [we will fight against updating](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/06/06/predictable-identities-10-fear-myths-and-the-outgroup-part-i/), and often [fight the people who force us to update](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/06/26/predictable-identities-12-fear-myths-and-the-outgroup-part-ii/). It’s important to take _[all](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/07/24/predictable-identities-14-frameworks-are-fake/)_[ models](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/07/24/predictable-identities-14-frameworks-are-fake/) with a grain of salt and resist the lure of [all-explaining ideologies](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/07/10/predictable-identities-13-totalizing-ideologies/).

We predict the world [to exploit and act on it](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/02/27/predictable-identities-2/), and the same applies to other people. We need to know how to get people [to do nice things for us](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/03/10/predictable-identities-3/), using [stereotypes for strangers we don’t know](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/03/13/predictable-identities-4/) and more [detailed mind-simulations](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/08/14/predictable-identities-15-newcomblike-part-i/) for people we do. We don’t need detailed models [for people unlikely to be nice](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/03/20/predictable-identities-5/) no matter what, and [we’re creeped out](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/04/03/predictable-identities-6/) by people who don’t fit our models at all like those who [blow their non-conformity budget](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/04/24/predictable-identities-7-weirdness-budget/). We [encourage those around us to conform](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/04/17/predictable-identities-7-roles-people-play/) to our narratives and predictions of them, which means that [changing one’s opinions and behavior](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/05/08/predictable-identities-9-how-to-change/) takes great effort in the face of the expectations of your social surroundings.

Finally, our predictions of ourselves interplay in complex ways with how others see us, since our minds are neither transparent to us nor opaque to those around us. For example, to be treated nicely [we must honestly believe that we are nice](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/08/28/predictable-identities-16-newcomblike-part-ii/), even if that is self-deceiving. Our models, predictions, and beliefs about our selves form our _identities_. This will be the topic for the second half of this blogchain.

Thanks for joining me on this journey, I predict exciting things ahead.