# Russian x-risks newsletter Summer 2020

Russian opposition leader Navalny was poisoned. I read [rumours](https://twitter.com/tanilbar/status/1297921336292016128) that he was doing an investigation about the origins of coronavirus pandemic and its possible relation to the explosion in the Vector biolab Novosibirsk last fall. He [visited](https://ngs.ru/text/politics/2020/08/15/69423568/) Novosibirsk 5 day before the poisoning. But others [said](https://www.rbc.ru/politics/31/08/2020/5f4d09fb9a79476892bd59b7?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop) that he investigated a case of corruption there.

Meanwhile, there is an [uprising](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/16/europe/putin-lukashenko-belarus-analysis-intl/index.html) against Belarussian leader Lukashenko. Putin can’t afford to lose Belarussia for military and prestige reasons and he said he prepared a group of the military to help preserve order in Belarussia. Long story short, this may escalate in conflict with Western countries, which may not like Russian occupation of Belarus.

Russia was first in the world who [declared](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-12/russia-defends-first-covid-19-vaccine-as-safe-amid-skepticism) that its coronavirus vaccine is registered. But actual production is very small and it will still be tested in phase 3 until 2021. Many people said that they don’t believe it as its tested may be rigged and the results are not published. Anyway, the vaccine consists of two adenoviruses with fragments of coronavirus’ nucleotide. However, it was [reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-20/russian-elite-got-experimental-covid-19-vaccine-from-april) that some rich people had access to the vaccine as early as in April. Almost no deaths from coronavirus between establishment except one person, former governor, who started act against Putin - files a legal case against his resignation.

Meanwhile, coronavirus pandemic smoothly declines in Russia. Maybe even too smoothly which makes the data statistically improbable. For example, Moscow has between 650 and 700 new cases a day for a long time. However, the numbers started to grow again at the end of August and people believe rumours that the next lockdown will be from 20 of September.

A nuclear submarine capable to carry six Doomsday weapons torpedoes “Poseidon” has been [launched](https://www.gazeta.ru/army/2020/06/10/13113697.shtml).

Russian EMP-guns can [now](https://iz.ru/1031696/2020-07-05/dalnost-boia-rossiiskikh-elektromagnitnykh-pushek-uvelichili-do-10-km) fire 10 km.

There was a new [leak](https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/07/01/russias-new-super-weapons-may-be-cause-of-radiation-leak/?fbclid=IwAR1TwaLpy8i9xoRmeT1V6IajXeyJY9Ml5i3yYo-oCt8lL_FjeDUrbQrzR6w#7e0382295f8c) of radioactivity somewhere, may be connected with tests of nuclear-powered cruise missile.

In summer, a state-connected Russian AI company started searching specialists for in NLP and transformers, probably inspired by GPT-3.

Extreme heat [hit](https://lenta.ru/news/2020/06/08/hottest/) in Siberia and affected permafrost. Permafrost in Russia and Canada contains a lot of organics which is equal into 1.5 trillion tons of CO2 But permafrost could also emit methane which is an even stronger greenhouse gas. It still not [clear](https://www.popsci.com/story/environment/permafrost-release-methane-debate/), which gas will be produced as it depends on the activity of microorganisms. Popsci: “Studies estimate that climate warming could release [up to 15 percent](https://theconversation.com/will-the-arctic-shift-from-a-carbon-sink-to-a-carbon-source-47826) of the carbon stored in permafrost this century, so understanding this risk is important.”

RAND [wrote](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html) about Russian containment strategy.