# The World in 2029

*Links are to prediction markets, subscripts/brackets are my own forecasts, done rapidly. *

I open my eyes. It’s nearly midday. I drink my morning Huel. How do I feel? My life feels pretty good. AI progress is faster than ever, but I've gotten used to the upward slope by now. There has perhaps recently been a huge recession, but I prepared for that. If not, the West feels more stable than it did in 2024. The culture wars rage on, inflamed by AI, though personally I don't pay much attention.

Either [Trump or Biden won](https://electionbettingodds.com/) the 2024 election$_{85\%}$. If Biden, his term was probably steady growth and good, boring decision making$_{70\%}$. If Trump there is more chance of global instability$_{70\%}$ due to pulling back from NATO $_{40\%}$, [lack of support for Ukraine](https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/which-party-will-win-the-presidency-886e9912e6ab)$_{60\%}$, incompetence in handling the Middle East$_{30\%}$. Under both administrations there is a [moderate chance of a global recession](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7467/next-great-financial-crisis-in-the-us/)$_{30\%}$, slightly more under Trump. I intend to earn a bit more and prep for that, but I can imagine that the median person might feel worse off if they get used to the gains in between.

AI progress has continued. For a couple of years it has been possible possible for anyone to type a prompt for a simple web app and [receive an entire interactive website](https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/ai-will-commonly-be-used-to-code-si-a18d10d83ed7)$_{60\%}$. AI autocomplete exists in most apps$_{80\%}$, AI images and video are ubiquitous$_{80\%}$. Perhaps an [AI has escaped containment](https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2029-will-an-ai-escape-containme)$_{45\%}$. Some simple job roles have been fully automated $_{60\%}$. For the last 5 years the sense of velocity we felt in 2023 onwards hasn't abated $_{80\%}$. OpenAI has made [significant progress](https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-openais-superalignment-project) on automating AI engineers $_{70\%}$.

And yet we haven’t hit the singularity yet $_{90\%}$, in fact, [it feels only a bit closer than it did in 2024](https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed) $_{60\%}$. We have blown through a number of milestones, but AIs are only capable of doing tasks that took 1-10 hours in 2024 $_{60\%}$, and humans are better at working with them $_{70\%}$. [AI regulation has become tighter](https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-ai-regulations-will-the-us-con-d2c35cd7c772)$_{80\%}$. With each new jump in capabilities the public gets more concerned and requires more regulation$_{60\%}$. The top labs are still in control of their models$_{75\%}$, with some oversight from the government, but they are red-teamed heavily$_{60\%}$, with strong anti-copyright measures in place$_{85\%}$. Political deepfakes probably didn't end up being as bad as everyone feared$_{60\%}$, because people are more careful with sources. Using deepfakes as scams is a big issue$_{60\%}$. People in the AI safety community are a little more optimistic$_{60\%}$.

The world is just "a lot" (65%). People are becoming exhausted by the availability and pace of change (60%). Perhaps rapidly growing technologies focus on bundling the many new interactions and interpreting them for us (20%).

There is a new culture war (80%), perhaps relating to AI (33%). Peak woke happened around 2024, peak trans panic around a similar time. Perhaps eugenics (10%) is the current culture war or polyamory (10%), child labour (5%), artificial wombs (10%). It is plausible that with the increase in AI this will be AI Safety, e/acc and AI ethics. If that's the case, I am already tired (80%).

In the meantime physical engineering is perhaps noticeably out of the great stagnation. Maybe we finally have self-driving cars in most Western cities (60%), drones are cheap and widely used, we are perhaps starting to see nuclear power stations (60%), house building is on the up. Climate change is seen as a bit less of a significant problem. World peak carbon production has happened and nuclear and solar are now well and truly booming. A fusion breakthrough looks likely in the next 5 years.

[China has maybe attacked Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/?sub-question=10880) (25%), but probably not. [Xi is likely still in charge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9408/xi-no-longer-authority-of-china/) (75%) but there has [probably been a major recessio](https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-china-have-a-recession-by-2029)n (60%). The US, which is more reliant on Mexico is less affected (60%), but Europe struggles significantly (60%).

In the wider world, both Africa and India are deeply unequal. Perhaps either has shrugged off its dysfunction (50%) buoyed up by English speakers and remote tech jobs, but it seems unlikely either is an economic powerhouse (80%). [Malaria has perhaps been eradicated](https://manifold.markets/cash/will-a-country-in-subsaharan-africa) in Sub-Saharan Africa (50%).

Animal welfare is roughly static, though cultivated meat is [now common on menus in London](https://manifold.markets/MattReardon/will-25-london-restaurants-offer-a) (60%). It faces battles around naming conventions (e.g. can it be called meat) (70%) and is growing slowly (60%). 

Overall, my main feeling is that it's gonna be okay (unless you’re a farm animal). I guess this is partly priors-based but I've tried to poke holes in it with the various markets attached. It seems to me that I want to focus on the 5 - 15 year term when things get really strange rather than worry deeply about the next 5 years.

* * *

This is my first post like this. How could I make the next one better?

Crossposted from my blog here: [https://nathanpmyoung.substack.com/p/the-world-in-2029](https://nathanpmyoung.substack.com/p/the-world-in-2029)