# Conspiracy Investigation Done Right

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In 1996, [TWA Flight 800](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TWA_Flight_800) exploded and crashed into the ocean off the coast of Long Island, killing all 230 people on board. After an extensive four-year investigation, the NTSB concluded the explosion was caused by a short circuit ignition within the center fuel tank. Or at least that’s the *official story*.

Now normally when you encounter a disclaiming phrase like that it tends to be a klaxon warning to strap in because you’re about to hear some crazy shit about what *really* happened. I’m not going to argue for some crazy shit though, instead I want to showcase a real-life illustration on how to properly investigate and litigate what otherwise would be dismissed and derided as some crazy shit.

Someone (thanks Jim!) brought to my attention this pending lawsuit that aims to challenge the TWA 800 official narrative.[^waa9ouk5sgq] The basic summary you need to know is that, in contrast to the *official story*, the “alternative” narrative claims the airplane was hit by an [SM-2 surface-to-air missile](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RIM-66_Standard) launched by the United States government during a weapons testing exercise. You can read the [38-page lawsuit complaint](https://masslawyersweekly.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2023/10/Krick-v.-Raytheon-complaint.pdf) yourself where they allege:

> Defendants \[Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, US Government, etc.\] negligently, recklessly, or intentionally authorized and conducted the testing of missiles in commercial airspace. As a result of these tests, a missile downed TWA 800 and killed Plaintiffs’ decedents.

And humorously enough:

> Defendants owed decedents and Plaintiffs a duty not to negligently test missiles in commercial airspace. Defendants breached that duty by negligently testing missiles in commercial airspace.

**TO BE CLEAR:** I find the overall claim to be extremely implausible based on Bayesian reasoning I’ll get to later, but the focus here is less about delving into the specific allegations[^1xxisn9vrz] and more about showcasing how one should go about uncovering a criminal conspiracy that otherwise sounds kooky on its face.

As far as I can tell, the law firm involved has a reputation for serious lawyers doing serious work. The complaint they filed directly addresses many procedural issues that would normally be a hindrance for these types of claims. For example, the major hurdle would be the statute of limitations given that the explosion took place in 1996 but the lawyers cite the [fraudulent concealment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraudulent_concealment) exception based on some FOIA foot-dragging:

> Specifically, key evidence confirming that a missile caused the crash of TWA 800 was hidden from the public and the victims’ families for over 25 years. This evidence was only recently unearthed by Dr. Tom Stalcup in his hard-fought FOIA litigation, which has now been pending for over ten years....Before April 15, 2021, the Plaintiffs were not aware of, or on notice of, the information that forms the basis of this complaint, nor have the Plaintiffs had any reasonable opportunity discover their injury, its cause, and the link between the two.

The legal system relies on attorneys as an (imperfect) screening mechanism to separate valid claims from the torrential garbage. Before an attorney can rouse a court into examining a claim, Rule 11 requires them to affirm that the attorney has [made reasonable efforts to investigate it themselves](https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcp/rule_11) to make sure they’re not just re-shoveling whatever bullshit their client dropped on their lap. The lawsuit offers specific allegations about *which* government agencies were involved in the cover-up, *when* the cover-up took place, and *how* it took place. A sample:

> The FBI essentially froze the NTSB out of the investigation. The FBI removed all copies (original and duplicates) of Navy radar tapes from the Navy, placing them out of the NTSB’s reach, and refused to allow the NTSB to conduct eyewitness interviews or review the FBI’s records that indicated the true cause of the TWA 800 crash…the CIA concocted materials to discredit eyewitnesses who could confirm that TWA 800 had been downed by some kind of projectile. These materials included a video and animation that was displayed during a nationally-televised FBI press conference that attempted to reconcile the eyewitness testimony that the plane was struck by a projectile with the U.S. Government’s official position that the crash was caused by a defect in the plane’s center fuel tank.

They even pontificate on what might have prompted a rush towards testing live warheads over a populated area:

> The Aegis System’s radar also needed improvement in its ability to operate close to shore and to properly integrate into existing systems...These serious flaws could result in a missile striking an unintended target...Instead of waiting five years for ships to be properly constructed with the [SPY-ID(V)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/SPY-1) *\[an advanced radar system\]* so that testing could be conducted far from congested air corridors and at established test ranges, the SPY-ID(V) was tested on an expedited basis in and around the CSEDS in New Jersey, in a highly congested area.

And they managed to track down evidence of missile testing right around the time and place of interest:

> An electrician on the roof of a nearby Long Island hospital was filming the sunrise and captured the second missile witnessed by the Coastguardsman on his VHS camera \[five days before TWA 800 went down\]…on November 16, 1996, almost precisely where TWA 800 went down off Long Island, a Pakistani Airlines pilot reported to Air Traffic Control that a “rocket” rose in front of him and continued rising above his altitude.

I’ve only picked a sample, there’s a lot more details in the complaint. In contrast to the [persistent and arguably intentional vagueness](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTfhYyTuT44&t=1150s) found in many [disdained conspiracy theories](https://ymeskhout.substack.com/p/the-overkill-conspiracy-hypothesis), I’m genuinely impressed by how comprehensive the lawsuit’s claims are regarding *who/how/why*. They explain exactly which organizations are involved in the cover-up and the evidence behind that belief, which missile system brought the plane down and the evidence behind that, specific reasons for why live warhead testing took place in a busy air traffic corridor, and explanations for why it took so long to uncover all this.

If (again, arguendo) TWA Flight 800 was indeed brought down by reckless missile testing involving a live warhead and this was covered-up by the government, then the way this lawsuit is conducted is the best opportunity for legal redress. The legal system has serious and persistent deficiencies with its inability to offer all petitioners the relief they’re owed, but certain rules and expectations it has developed over time are worthy of replication.

As a foil, the strengths of how the TWA 800 complaints are presented become more obvious when it’s contrasted against another lawsuit whose deficiencies resulted in Rule 11 sanctions for the lawyers that filed it. In 2020, two Colorado attorneys filed a class action lawsuit on behalf of all registered voters in the country, and sought $160 billion in punitive damages, alleging the election was stolen from Trump.[^5v12ugzywvc] [Their 84-page complaint](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/19949037/orourke-v-dominion-voting-systems-inc/#entry-1) (plus a dozen affidavits) alleges that a wide roster of defendants (Dominion, Facebook, various state governors, and “1 to 10,000” as-of-yet unidentified co-conspirators) engaged in unspecified-but-definitely illegal conduct. For example, here’s what one of the supporting affidavits claimed:

> After much research and contemplation, it has come to my attention that the 2020 general election, and probably many more, have been compromised by a number of persons, including a corporation in the United States called Dominion Voting Machines, Inc., and others, such as, Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan; and other individuals acting as governors and secretaries of state, including, Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger of Georgia, and Gretchen Whitmer and Jocelyn Bensen from Michigan.

Contrast this “research and contemplation” with the straightforward allegation of “The Navy and various defense contractors caused an airline explosion by deciding to test live warheads in a highly-populated area”. The magistrate who [ordered sanctions against the Colorado attorneys](https://casetext.com/case/orourke-v-dominion-voting-sys-1) noted their conspicuous aversion to investigation:

> It appears that Plaintiffs’ counsel's process for formulating the factual allegations in this lawsuit was to compile all the allegations from all the lawsuits and media reports relating to alleged election fraud (and only the ones asserting fraud, not the ones refuting fraud), put it in one massive complaint, then file it and ‘see what happens.’…Material, including affidavits, from other lawsuits was accepted at face value, with no apparent critical assessment. Mr. Fielder says he watched videos and listened to talk show interviews with some of the experts involved. He also says relied on his own many years’ experience as a lawyer to "connect the dots."

Pro-tip: don’t decide to file a lawsuit after listening to a podcast.

* * *

Back to the TWA 800 case, the central claim involving the US accidentally shooting down a passenger airline isn’t *impossible* because it happened once [in 1988 with Iran Air Flight 655](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655), killing all 290 people on board. What’s least plausible of all with TWA 800 is how the military, the defense contractors, and the law enforcement agencies involved managed a successful cover-up over so many people over such a long period of time.

There’s an oft-utilized but facile heuristic that claims that if there was a cover-up, then someone would’ve leaked it, and so therefore no leak = no cover-up. This is unreliable because there plenty of government cover-ups that were successful, at least for a while. The Tuskegee Syphilis study went on for 40 years until an AP story in 1972. Operation Mockingbird, MKUltra, and COINTELPRO all took place in the 1950s but weren't exposed until the 1970s. [Project SUNSHINE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_SUNSHINE) which involved collecting body parts from dead children to study radioactive fallout started in 1953, didn't become publicly known until 1956, and the full extent wasn't fully exposed until the 1990s.

However, the common elements with these schemes is that they all involved either a small number of conspirators, or had victims that no one really gave a shit about. None of this is reflected in Flight 800, its 230 dead, and the multiple entities implicated.

The incentive behind the cover-up doesn't make much sense either, because anyone helping with the cover-up has no way of knowing ahead of time whether it will remain under wraps, especially if perpetual silence relies on the cooperation of hundreds or thousands of people. You only need one leak and if the whole thing blows open, no one wants to be left holding the proverbial gun while everyone is pointing fingers at each other. Anyone at the decision fulcrum faces an obvious pay-off from defection that needs a *serious* countervailing cooperation pay-off to convince them into shouldering that level of culpability.

The lawsuit allegations also rely heavily on eyewitness testimony (though with some video corroboration), which is particularly unreliable and prone to suggestion when it involves widely publicized events like an airline crash. Lay witnesses who lack the appropriate specialized training and background are vulnerable to misinterpreting what they see or hear.

Implausible is still not the same as impossible, and crazier shit has happened before. If there’s any validity to these wild claims at all, this lawsuit tees up a stellar attempt at uncovering the truth.

[^waa9ouk5sgq]: I’ve long had an aversion to describing anything as a ‘conspiracy theory’ because it’s often wielded as a discussion-terminating cudgel. Once the label is affixed, the very notion of scrutinizing, investigating, or grappling with the underlying claims is dismissed as a waste of time. 

[^1xxisn9vrz]: The Flight 800 Wikipedia page has lots more of the technical details if you’re so inclined. 

[^5v12ugzywvc]: The two lawyers, Gary Fielder and Ernest Walker, were acting on their own and had no connection to Donald Trump or his campaign.