# Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices

[Scott Alexander has posted some predictions for 2021](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDQ0NjYyMiwicG9zdF9pZCI6MzU2NTM4NDcsIl8iOiJORHJFVSIsImlhdCI6MTYxOTQ3OTE2MSwiZXhwIjoxNjE5NDgyNzYxLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItODkxMjAiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.BEElpY1WWwCRqC3Sl4WC-gTpt-HP-8srKpwQ9VTZlHo). Taking Zvi's approach from [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cpy23aBzx3hnjKbnt/scott-alexander-2021-predictions-buy-sell-hold) and rather than making my own adjustments, making my best estimate of what various prediction (and financial) markets are saying the odds are. 

If anyone has seen a market for any of the questions listed here which I haven't found one, let me know and I'll add it.

EDIT: Final results [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A7yccktTp8LDjSizp/scott-alexander-2021-predictions-market-prices-resolution)

### US/WORLD

1\. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%: 80%

[Metaculus gives this 61%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/). (Much lower than both Zvi and Scott)

2\. Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don’t have to be appointed by end of year): 5%

[PredictIt gives a lower bound on this at 5%](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021).  
[Metaculus gives a 27%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/) chance to court packing by 2030. Assuming the chances of this happening is mostly weighted sooner rather than later (4/3/2/1 over Biden's term + 30% '24 - '30). would give this a 4% chance in this year

3\. Yang is New York mayor: 80%

[Metaculus is at 60%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/)  
[Smarkets is at 73%](https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021)  
[Betfair is at 77%](https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.177995647)  
[PredictIt is at 69%](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021)

4\. Newsom recalled as CA governor: 5%

[BetOnline.ag](https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures) has this at ~7%

  
5\. At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year: 30%  
6\. Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket): 20%  
7\. Trump is allowed back on Twitter: 20%

Not aware of any markets

8\. Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule: 70%

[Metaculus has this at 80%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)  
[FTX has this at 75%](https://ftx.com/trade/OLY2021)  
[Smarkets has this at 75%](https://smarkets.com/event/42023051/current-affairs/covid-19/sports/will-olympics-go-ahead-this-year)

Note that Metaculus is talking about an Olympics at any point in 2021, whereas the others are about the Olympics being on schedule.

9\. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war: 20%

[Metaculus has a related question at 32%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6959/war-in-donbass-2021/). If we assume that question is about reaching a level approximately the same as was achieved in the past, this is presumably putting the chances of something *worse* at ~16%

10\. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict: 5%  
11\. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict: 5%

Not aware of any markets (specific to 2021).

12\. Netanyahu is still Israeli PM: 40%

[PredictIt has this at 22%](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7234/Who-will-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-Dec-31)

13\. Prospera has at least 1000 residents: 30%

Not aware of one. I think Metaculus are making one though

14\. GME >$100 (Currently $170): 50%

Possibly the most concrete one. The [options market](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?p=GME&date=1642723200) is giving this 60% chance right now. (Actually, it's giving that until 21-Jan-22, so the chances are even higher than that)

15\. Bitcoin above 100K: 40%

[Metaculus gives this 43%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6666/maximum-price-of-bitcoin-in-2021/) (at any point)  
[Deribit options give this 25%](https://www.deribit.com/main#/options?tab=BTC-31DEC21)(at the end of the year)

16\. Ethereum above 5K: 50%

[Deribit options give this 11%](https://www.deribit.com/main#/options?tab=ETH-31DEC21) (at the end of the year)

17\. Ethereum above 0.05 BTC: 70%

Not a market price, but bootstrapping this from option prices + historical volatility puts this closer to 33%

18\. Dow above 35K: 90%

[Option market gives this 50%](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/options?.tsrc=fin-srch&p=DIA&date=1640908800)

19\. …above 37.5K: 70%

[Option market gives this 20%](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/options?.tsrc=fin-srch&p=DIA&date=1640908800)

20\. Unemployment above 5%: 40%

[Metaculus gives this 37%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/)

21\. Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked: 20%

Not seen a market for this

22\. Starship reaches orbit: 60%

[Metaculus gives this 50%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/)

### COVID

23\. Fewer than 10K daily average official COVID cases in US in December 2021: 30%  
24\. Fewer than 50K daily average COVID cases worldwide in December 2021: 1%

Not seen a market

25\. Greater than 66% of US population vaccinated against COVID: 50%

[Metaculus gives this 77%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) (their line is 69% vaccinated, so their probability for 60% is even higher)

26\. India’s official case count is higher than US: 50%

Not seen a market

27\. Vitamin D is generally recognized (eg NICE, UpToDate) as effective COVID treatment: 30%

None of Metaculus' 4 questions about Vit-D are <= 25%:

*   [Best practice](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/): 15%
*   [NHS](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/): 25%
*   [NIH](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/): 21%
*   [Dutch](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/): 24%

28\. Something else not currently used becomes first-line treatment for COVID: 40%  
29\. Some new variant not currently known is greater than 25% of cases: 50%  
30\. Some new variant where no existing vaccine is more than 50% effective: 40%

Not seen a market

31\. US approves AstraZeneca vaccine: 20%

[Metaculus gives this 37%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/)

32\. Most people I see in the local grocery store aren’t wearing a mask: 60%

Not seen a market