# 2020 PhilPapers Survey Results

In 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers ran the PhilPapers Survey ([results](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=medium), [paper](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP.pdf)), sending questions to "all regular faculty members" at top "Ph.D.-granting \[philosophy\] departments in English-speaking countries" plus ten other philosophy departments deemed to have "strength in analytic philosophy comparable to the other 89 departments".

Bourget and Chalmers now have a new PhilPapers Survey out, run in 2020 ([results](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/all), [paper](https://philarchive.org/archive/BOUPOP-3)). I'll use this post to pick out some findings I found interesting, and say opinionated stuff about them. Keep in mind that I'm focusing on topics and results that dovetail with things I'm curious about (e.g., 'why do academic decision theorists and LW decision theorists disagree so much?'), not giving a neutral overview of the whole 100-question survey.

The new survey's target population consists of:

> (1) in Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the UK, and the US: all regular faculty members (tenuretrack or permanent) in BA-granting philosophy departments with four or more members (according to the PhilPeople database); and (2) in all other countries: English-publishing philosophers in BA-granting philosophy departments with four or more English-publishing faculty members.

In order to make comparisons to the 2009 results, the 2020 survey also looked at a "2009-comparable departments" list selected using similar criteria to the 2009 survey:

> It should be noted that the “2009-comparable department” group differs systematically from the broader target population in a number of respects. Demographically, it includes a higher proportion of UK-based philosophers and analytic-tradition philosophers than the target population. Philosophically, it includes a lower proportion of theists, along with many other differences evident in comparing 2020 results in table 1 (all departments) to table 9 (2009-comparable departments).

Based on this description, I expect the "2009-comparable departments" in the 2020 survey to be more elite, influential, and reasonable than the 2020 "target group", so I mostly focus on 2009-comparable departments below. In the tables below, if the row doesn't say "*Target*" (i.e., target group), the population is "2009-comparable departments".

Note that in the 2020 survey (unlike 2009), respondents could endorse multiple answers.

1\. Decision theory
-------------------

[Newcomb's problem](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4886): The following groups (with *n* noting their size, and skipping people who skipped the question or said they weren't sufficiently familiar with it) endorsed the following options in the 2020 survey:

| **Group** | ***n *** | **one box** | **two boxes** | **diff** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1071 | 31% | 39% | 8%  |
| Decision theorists (*Target*) | 48  | 21% | 73% | 58% |
| Philosophers | 470 | 28% | 43% | 15% |
| Decision theorists | 22  | 23% | 73% | 50% |

5% of decision theorists said they "accept a combination of views", and 9% said they were "agnostic/undecided".

I think decision theorists are astonishingly wrong here, so I was curious to see if other philosophy fields did better.

I looked at *every* field where enough surveyed people gave their views on Newcomb's problem. Here they are in order of 'how much more likely are they to two-box than to one-box':

| **Group** | ***n *** | **one box** | **two boxes** | **diff** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers of gender, race, and sexuality | 13  | 23% | 54% | 31% |
| 20th-century-philosophy specialists | 23  | 13% | 43% | 30% |
| Social and political philosophers | 62  | 19% | 48% | 29% |
| Philosophers of law | 14  | 14% | 43% | 29% |
| Phil. of computing and information (*Target*) | 18  | 22% | 50% | 28% |
| Philosophers of social science | 24  | 33% | 58% | 25% |
| Philosophers of biology | 20  | 30% | 55% | 25% |
| General philosophers of science | 53  | 26% | 51% | 25% |
| Philosophers of language | 100 | 25% | 47% | 22% |
| Philosophers of mind | 96  | 25% | 45% | 20% |
| Philosophers of computing and information | 5   | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| 19th-century-philosophy specialists | 10  | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Philosophers of action | 32  | 28% | 47% | 19% |
| Logic and philosophy of logic | 58  | 26% | 43% | 17% |
| Philosophers of physical science | 25  | 28% | 44% | 16% |
| Epistemologists | 129 | 32% | 47% | 15% |
| Meta-ethicists | 72  | 29% | 43% | 14% |
| Metaphysicians | 123 | 32% | 44% | 12% |
| Normative ethicists | 102 | 32% | 42% | 10% |
| Philosophers of religion | 15  | 33% | 40% | 7%  |
| Philosophers of mathematics | 19  | 32% | 37% | 5%  |
| 17th/18th-century-philosophy specialists | 39  | 31% | 36% | 5%  |
| Metaphilosophers | 23  | 35% | 39% | 4%  |
| Applied ethicists | 50  | 34% | 38% | 4%  |
| Philosophers of cognitive science | 50  | 32% | 36% | 4%  |
| Aestheticians | 14  | 29% | 21% | -8% |
| Greek and Roman philosophy specialists | 17  | 41% | 29% | -12% |

(Note that many of these groups are small-*n*. Since philosophers of computing and information were an especially small and weird group, and I expect LWers to be extra interested in this group, I also looked at the target-group version for this field.)

*Every* field did much better than decision theory (by the "getting more utility in Newcomb's problem" metric). However, the only fields that favored one-boxing over two-boxing was ancient Greek and Roman philosophy, and aesthetics.

After those two fields, the best fields were philosophy of cognitive science, applied ethics, metaphilosophy, philosophy of mathematics, and 17th/18th century philosophy (only 4-5% more likely to two-box than one-box), followed by philosophy of religion, normative ethics, and metaphysics.

My quick post-hoc, low-confidence guess about why these fields did relatively well is (hiding behind a spoiler tag so others can make their own unanchored guesses):

 My inclination is to model the aestheticians, historians of philosophy, philosophers of religion, and applied ethicists as 'in-between' analytic philosophers and the general public ([who one-box more often than they two-box, unlike analytic philosophers](https://www.theguardian.com/science/alexs-adventures-in-numberland/2016/nov/30/newcombs-problem-which-side-won-the-guardians-philosophy-poll)). I think of specialists in those fields as relatively normal people, who have had less exposure to analytic-philosophy culture and ideas and whose views therefore tend to more closely resemble the views of some person on the street.

This would also explain why the "2009-comparable departments", who I expected to be more elite and analytic-philosophy-ish, did so much worse than the "target group" here.

I would have guessed, however, that philosophers of gender/race/sexuality would also have done relatively well on Newcomb's problem, if 'analytic-philosophy-ness' were the driving factor.

I'm pretty confused about this, though the small *n* for some of these populations means that a lot of this could be pretty random. (E.g., network effects: a single just-for-fun faculty email thread about Newcomb's problem could convince a bunch of  philosophers of sexuality that two-boxing is great. Then this would show up in the survey because very few philosophers of sexuality have ever even heard of Newcomb's problem, and the ones who haven't heard of it aren't included.)

At the same time, my inclination is to treat philosophers of cognitive science, mathematics, normative ethics, metaphysics, and metaphilosophy as 'heavily embedded in analytic philosophy land, but smart enough (/ healthy enough as a field) to see through the bad arguments for two-boxing to some extent'.

There's also a question of why cognitive science would help philosophers do better on Newcomb's problem, when computer science doesn't. I wonder if the *kinds of debates* that are popular in computer science are the sort that attract people with bad epistemics? ('Wow, the Chinese room argument is amazing, I want to work in this field!') I really have no idea, and wouldn't have predicted this in advance.

Normative ethics also surprises me here. And both of my explanations for 'why did field X do well?' are post-hoc, and based on my prior sense that some of these fields are much smarter and more reasonable than others.

It's very plausible that there's *some* difference between the factors that make aestheticians one-box more, and the factors that make philosophers of cognitive science one-box more. To be confident in my particular explanations, however, we'd want to run various tests and look at various other comparisons between the groups.

The fields that did the worst after decision theory were philosophy of gender/race/sexuality, 20th-century philosophy, philosophy of language, philosophy of law, political philosophy, and philosophy of biology, of social science, and of science-in-general.

A separate question is whether academic decision theory has gotten better since the 2009 survey. Eyeballing the (small-*n*) numbers, the answer is that it seems to have gotten worse: two-boxing became even more popular (in 2009-comparable departments), and one-boxing even less popular:

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/d1882ba7d812315b9e7dd498ae3a98ee4375b0542c5010a4.png)

*n*=31 for the 2009 side of the comparison, *n*=22 for the 2020 side. The numbers above are different from the ones I originally presented because Bourget and Chalmers include "skip" and "insufficiently familiar" answers, and exclude responses that chose multiple options, in order to make the methodology more closely match that of the 2009 survey.

2\. (Non-animal) ethics
-----------------------

Regarding "[Meta-ethics](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4866): moral realism or moral anti-realism?":

| **Group** | ***n *** | **moral realism** | **moral anti-realism** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1719 | 62% | 26% |
| Philosophers | 630 | 62% | 27% |
| Applied ethicists | 64  | 67% | 23% |
| Normative ethicists | 132 | 74% | 16% |
| Meta-ethicists | 94  | 68% | 22% |

Regarding "[Moral judgment](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4882): non-cognitivism or cognitivism?":

| **Group** | ***n *** | **cognitivism** | **non-cognitivism** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1636 | 69% | 21% |
| Philosophers | 594 | 70% | 20% |
| Applied ethicists | 62  | 76% | 23% |
| Normative ethicists | 132 | 82% | 14% |
| Meta-ethicists | 93  | 76% | 16% |

Regarding "[Morality](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/5078): expressivism, naturalist realism, constructivism, error theory, or non-naturalism?":

| **Group** | ***n *** | **non-nat** | **nat realism** | **construct** | **express** | **error** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1024 | 27% | 32% | 21% | 11% | 5%  |
| Philosophers | 386 | 25% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5%  |
| Applied ethicists | 40  | 20% | 35% | 38% | 5%  | 0%  |
| Normative ethicists | 90  | 34% | 36% | 21% | 8%  | 1%  |
| Meta-ethicists | 68  | 37% | 29% | 18% | 13% | 7%  |

Regarding "[Normative ethics](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4890): virtue ethics, consequentialism, or deontology?" (putting in parentheses the percentage that *only* chose the option in question):

| **Group** | ***n *** | deontology | consequentialism | virtue ethics | combination |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| All (*Target*) | 1741 | 32% (20%) | 31% (21%) | 37% (25%) | 16% |
| All | 631 | 37% (23%) | 32% (22%) | 31% (19%) | 17% |
| Applied... | 63  | 56% (33%) | 38% (22%) | 33% (8%) | 27% |
| Normative... | 132 | 46% (27%) | 32% (20%) | 36% (17%) | 25% |
| Meta... | 94  | 44% (28%) | 32% (22%) | 24% (13%) | 19% |

Excluding responses that endorsed multiple options, we can see that normative ethicists have moved away from deontology and towards virtue ethics since 2009, though deontology is still the most popular:

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/513147020cd5833a75c302dcddf299d0269f1c2ff0bf190b.png)

30 normative-ethicist respondents also wrote in "pluralism" or "pluralist" in the 2020 survey.

Regarding "[Trolley problem](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4922) (five straight ahead, one on side track, turn requires switching, what ought one do?): don't switch or switch?":

| **Group** | ***n *** | **switch** | **don't switch** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1736 | 63% | 13% |
| Philosophers | 635 | 68% | 12% |
| Applied ethicists | 63  | 71% | 13% |
| Normative ethicists | 132 | 70% | 13% |
| Meta-ethicists | 94  | 70% | 13% |

Regarding "[Footbridge](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4946) (pushing man off bridge will save five on track below, what ought one do?): push or don't push?":

| **Group** | ***n *** | **push** | **don't push** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1740 | 22% | 56% |
| Philosophers | 636 | 23% | 58% |
| Applied ethicists | 63  | 24% | 63% |
| Normative ethicists | 132 | 17% | 70% |
| Meta-ethicists | 94  | 18% | 66% |

Regarding "[Human genetic engineering](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/5046): permissible or impermissible?":

| **Group** | ***n *** | **permissible** | **impermissible** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1059 | 62% | 19% |
| Philosophers | 379 | 68% | 13% |
| Applied ethicists | 39  | 85% | 8%  |
| Normative ethicists | 83  | 69% | 12% |
| Meta-ethicists | 59  | 68% | 12% |

Regarding "[Well-being](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/5206): hedonism/experientialism, desire satisfaction, or objective list?":

| **Group** | ***n *** | **hedonism** | **desire satisfaction** | **objective list** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 967 | 10% | 19% | 53% |
| Philosophers | 348 | 9%  | 19% | 54% |
| Applied ethicists | 43  | 16% | 26% | 56% |
| Normative ethicists | 90  | 11% | 21% | 63% |
| Meta-ethicists | 62  | 11% | 24% | 55% |

[Moral internalism](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/moral-motivation/#IntVExt) "holds that a person cannot sincerely make a moral judgment without being *motivated* at least to some degree to abide by her judgment". Regarding "[Moral motivation](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4878): externalism or internalism?":

| **Group** | ***n *** | **internalism** | **externalism** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1429 | 41% | 39% |
| Philosophers | 528 | 38% | 42% |
| Applied ethicists | 57  | 53% | 37% |
| Normative ethicists | 128 | 34% | 51% |
| Meta-ethicists | 92  | 35% | 47% |

One of the largest changes in philosophers' views since the 2009 survey is that philosophers have somewhat shifted toward externalism. In 2009, internalism was 5% more popular than externalism; now externalism is 3% more popular than internalism.

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/592070a869c6d4209ba58f3fe05c1fa621c189137689387a.png)

(Again, the 2009-2020 comparisons give different numbers for 2020 in order to make the two surveys' methodologies more similar.)

3\. Minds and animal ethics
---------------------------

Regarding "[Hard problem of consciousness](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/5042) (is there one?): no or yes?":

| **Group** | ***n*** | **yes** | **no** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1468 | 62% | 30% |
| Philosophers of computing and information (*Target*) | 18  | 44% | 50% |
| Philosophers | 366 | 58% | 33% |
| Philosophers of cognitive science | 40  | 48% | 50% |
| Philosophers of mind | 91  | 62% | 34% |

Regarding "[Mind](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4874): non-physicalism or physicalism?":

| **Group** | ***n*** | **physicalism** | **non-physicalism** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1733 | 52% | 32% |
| Phil of computing and information (*Target*) | 25  | 64% | 24% |
| Philosophers | 630 | 59% | 27% |
| Philosophers of cognitive science | 73  | 78% | 12% |
| Philosophers of computing and information | 5   | 60% | 20% |
| Philosophers of mind | 135 | 60% | 26% |

Regarding "[Consciousness](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/5010): identity theory, panpsychism, eliminativism, dualism, or functionalism?":

| **Group** | ***n*** | dualism | elim | function | identity | panpsychism |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1020 | 22% | 5%  | 33% | 13% | 8%  |
| Phil of computing (*Target*) | 16  | 25% | 19% | 31% | 0%  | 0%  |
| Philosophers | 362 | 22% | 4%  | 33% | 14% | 7%  |
| Phil of cognitive science | 43  | 14% | 12% | 40% | 19% | 2%  |
| Philosophers of mind | 95  | 24% | 2%  | 38% | 12% | 10% |

Regarding "[Zombies](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4930): conceivable but not metaphysically possible, metaphysically possible, or inconceivable?" (also noting "agnostic/undecided" results):

| **Group** | ***n*** | **inconceivable** | **conceivable** **+impossible** | **possible** | **agnostic** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1610 | 16% | 37% | 24% | 11% |
| Phil of computing (*Target*) | 24  | 29% | 25% | 17% | 8%  |
| Philosophers | 582 | 15% | 42% | 22% | 11% |
| Phil of cognitive science | 72  | 24% | 50% | 11% | 6%  |
| Phil of computing | 5   | 20% | 40% | 20% | 0%  |
| Philosophers of mind | 132 | 20% | 51% | 17% | 3%  |

My understanding is that the "psychological view" of personal identity more or less says 'you're software', the "biological view" says 'you're hardware', and the "further-fact view" says 'you're a supernatural soul'. Regarding "[Personal identity](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4898): further-fact view, psychological view, or biological view?":

| **Group** | ***n*** | **biological** | **psychological** | **further-fact** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1615 | 19% | 44% | 15% |
| Phil of computing... (*Target*) | 23  | 22% | 70% | 4%  |
| Philosophers | 598 | 20% | 44% | 13% |
| Philosophers of cognitive science | 69  | 26% | 55% | 6%  |
| Philosophers of computing... | 5   | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| Philosophers of mind | 130 | 26% | 47% | 12% |

Comparing this to some other philosophy subfields, as a gauge of their health:

| **Group** | ***n*** | **biological** | **psychological** | **further-fact** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Decision theorists | 18  | 17% | 67% | 17% |
| Epistemologists | 144 | 22% | 35% | 17% |
| General philosophers of science | 58  | 29% | 55% | 7%  |
| Metaphysicians | 150 | 23% | 39% | 15% |
| Normative ethicists | 127 | 14% | 46% | 15% |
| Philosophers of language | 120 | 18% | 38% | 17% |
| Philosophers of mathematics | 18  | 17% | 61% | 6%  |
| Philosophers of religion | 25  | 24% | 16% | 44% |

Decision theorists come out of this looking pretty great (I claim). This is particularly interesting to me, because some people diagnose the 'academic decision theorist vs. LW decision theorist' disagreement as coming down to 'do you identify with your algorithm or with your physical body?'.

The above is some evidence that *either* this diagnosis is wrong, *or* academic decision theorists haven't fully followed their psychological view of personal identity to its logical conclusions.

Regarding "[Mind uploading](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/5094) (brain replaced by digital emulation): survival or death?" (adding answers for "the question is too unclear to answer" and "there is no fact of the matter"):

| **Group** | ***n*** | **survival** | **death** | **Q too unclear** | **no fact** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1016 | 27% | 54% | 5%  | 4%  |
| Phil of computing... (*Target*) | 19  | 47% | 42% | 11% | 0%  |
| Philosophers | 369 | 28% | 54% | 5%  | 4%  |
| Decision theorists | 12  | 42% | 8%  | 8%  | 17% |
| Philosophers of cognitive science | 37  | 35% | 51% | 5%  | 3%  |
| Philosophers of mind | 91  | 34% | 52% | 4%  | 2%  |

From my perspective, decision theorists do great on this question — very few endorse "death", and a lot endorse "there is no fact of the matter" (which, along with "survival", strike me as good indirect signs of clear thinking given that this is a kind-of-terminological question and, depending on terminology, "death" is *at best* a *technically-true-but-misleading* answer).

Also, a respectable 25% of decision theorists say "agnostic/undecided", which is almost always something I give philosophers points for — no one's an expert on everything, a lot of these questions are confusing, and recognizing the limits of your own understanding is a very positive sign.

Regarding "[Chinese room](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/5002): doesn't understand or understands?" (adding "the question is too unclear to answer" responses):

| **Group** | ***n*** | **understands** | **doesn't** | **Q too unclear** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1031 | 18% | 67% | 6%  |
| Phil of computing... (*Target*) | 18  | 22% | 56% | 17% |
| Philosophers | 381 | 18% | 66% | 6%  |
| Philosophers of cognitive science | 44  | 34% | 50% | 7%  |
| Philosophers of mind | 91  | 15% | 70% | 8%  |

Regarding "Other minds (for which groups are some members conscious?)" (looking only at the "2009-comparable departments", except for philosophy of computing and information because there aren't viewable results for that subgroup):

(Options: adult humans; cats; fish; flies; worms; plants; particles; newborn babies; current AI systems; future AI systems.)

(Respondent groups: philosophers; applied ethicists; decision theorists; meta-ethicists; metaphysicians; normative ethicists; philosophy of biology; philosophers of cognitive science; philosophers of computing and information; philosophers of mathematics; philosophers of mind.)

|     | ***n*** | **adult h** | **cat** | **fish** | **fly** | **worm** | **plant** | **partic** | **baby h** | **AI** | **AI fut** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Phil | 404 | 97% | 93% | 68% | 36% | 24% | 7%  | 2%  | 89% | 2%  | 43% |
| App | 35  | 100% | 94% | 77% | 31% | 17% | 3%  | 0%  | 89% | 0%  | 63% |
| Dec | 14  | 86% | 86% | 71% | 36% | 21% | 0%  | 0%  | 64% | 0%  | 57% |
| MtE | 64  | 98% | 92% | 72% | 38% | 23% | 6%  | 2%  | 91% | 0%  | 47% |
| MtP | 108 | 98% | 97% | 71% | 42% | 32% | 7%  | 3%  | 95% | 4%  | 49% |
| Nor | 85  | 99% | 94% | 73% | 35% | 22% | 5%  | 0%  | 88% | 4%  | 41% |
| Bio | 13  | 100% | 85% | 62% | 38% | 15% | 8%  | 0%  | 69% | 8%  | 54% |
| Cog | 44  | 98% | 98% | 73% | 39% | 25% | 11% | 2%  | 95% | 2%  | 50% |
| Com | 19  | 100% | 89% | 68% | 32% | 26% | 5%  | 0%  | 89% | 11% | 58% |
| Mat | 14  | 100% | 93% | 86% | 57% | 43% | 7%  | 0%  | 93% | 7%  | 50% |
| Min | 92  | 99% | 97% | 79% | 45% | 30% | 10% | 4%  | 96% | 0%  | 43% |

I am confused, delighted, and a little frightened that an equal (and not-super-large) number of decision theorists think adult humans and cats are conscious. (Though as always, small *n*.)

Also impressed that they gave a low probability to newborn humans being conscious — it seems hard to be confident about the answer to this, and being willing to entertain 'well, maybe not' seems like a strong sign of epistemic humility beating out motivated reasoning.

Also, 11% of philosophers of cognitive science think *PLANTS* are conscious??? Friendship with philosophers of cognitive science ended, decision theorists new best friend.

Regarding "[Eating animals and animal products](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4938) (is it permissible to eat animals and/or animal products in ordinary circumstances?): vegetarianism (no and yes), veganism (no and no), or omnivorism (yes and yes)?":

| **Group** | ***n*** | **omnivorism** | **vegetarianism** | **veganism** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1764 | 48% | 26% | 18% |
| Philosophers | 643 | 46% | 27% | 21% |
| Applied ethicists | 64  | 33% | 23% | 41% |
| Normative ethicists | 131 | 40% | 27% | 31% |
| Meta-ethicists | 94  | 41% | 23% | 24% |
| Philosophers of mind | 134 | 48% | 31% | 12% |
| Philosophers of cognitive science | 73  | 48% | 29% | 14% |

4\. Metaphysics, philosophy of physics, and anthropics
------------------------------------------------------

Regarding "[Sleeping beauty](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/5170) (woken once if heads, woken twice if tails, credence in heads on waking?): one-half or one-third?" (including the answers "this question is too unclear to answer," "accept an alternative view," "there is no fact of the matter," and "agnostic/undecided"):

| **Group** | ***n*** | **1/3** | **1/2** | **unclear** | **alt** | **no fact** | **agnostic** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 429 | 28% | 19% | 8%  | 1%  | 3%  | 40% |
| Philosophers | 191 | 27% | 20% | 4%  | 2%  | 5%  | 42% |
| Decision theorists | 13  | 54% | 8%  | 0%  | 15% | 0%  | 23% |
| Epistemologists | 70  | 33% | 20% | 3%  | 3%  | 1%  | 40% |
| Logicians and phil of logic | 28  | 36% | 14% | 4%  | 7%  | 4%  | 36% |
| Phil of cognitive science | 18  | 28% | 22% | 6%  | 0%  | 0%  | 44% |
| Philosophers of mathematics | 6   | 50% | 17% | 0%  | 0%  | 0%  | 33% |

Regarding "[Cosmological fine-tuning](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/5018) (what explains it?): no fine-tuning, brute fact, design, or multiverse?":

| **Group** | ***n*** | **design** | **multiverse** | **brute fact** | **no fine-tuning** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 807 | 17% | 15% | 32% | 22% |
| Philosophers | 289 | 14% | 16% | 35% | 22% |
| Decision theorists | 13  | 8%  | 23% | 23% | 38% |
| General phil of science | 33  | 9%  | 21% | 48% | 24% |
| Metaphysicians | 93  | 28% | 18% | 32% | 13% |
| Phil of cognitive science... | 32  | 6%  | 19% | 50% | 13% |
| Phil of physical science | 16  | 13% | 25% | 38% | 6%  |

Regarding "[Quantum mechanics](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/5150): epistemic, hidden-variables, many-worlds, or collapse?":

| **Group** | ***n** * | **collapse** | **hidden-var** | **many-worlds** | **epistemic** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 556 | 17% | 22% | 19% | 13% |
| Philosophers | 197 | 13% | 29% | 24% | 8%  |
| Decision theorists | 8   | 38% | 13% | 63% | 13% |
| General phil of science | 26  | 31% | 23% | 27% | 4%  |
| Metaphysicians | 78  | 12% | 35% | 31% | 5%  |
| Phil of cognitive science... | 16  | 6%  | 31% | 31% | 19% |
| Phil of physical science | 15  | 13% | 33% | 33% | 0%  |

From [SEP](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/causation-metaphysics/):

> What is the metaphysical basis for causal connection? That is, what is the difference between causally related and causally unrelated sequences?
> 
> The question of connection occupies the bulk of the vast literature on causation. \[...\] Fortunately, the details of these many and various accounts may be postponed here, as they tend to be variations on two basic themes. In practice, the nomological, statistical, counterfactual, and agential accounts tend to converge in the indeterministic case. All understand connection in terms of *probability*: causing is making more likely. The change, energy, process, and transference accounts converge in treating connection in terms of *process*: causing is physical producing. Thus a large part of the controversy over connection may, in practice, be reduced to the question of whether connection is a matter of probability or process (Section 2.1).

Regarding "[Causation](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4998): process/production, primitive, counterfactual/difference-making, or nonexistent?": 

| **Group** | ***n *** | **counterfactual** | **process** | **primitive** | **non** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 892 | 37% | 23% | 21% | 4%  |
| Philosophers | 342 | 39% | 22% | 21% | 3%  |
| Decision theorists | 14  | 71% | 7%  | 7%  | 7%  |
| Metaphysicians | 103 | 32% | 28% | 28% | 5%  |
| Philosophers of cognitive science | 38  | 58% | 21% | 13% | 5%  |
| Philosophers of physical science | 16  | 63% | 19% | 0%  | 6%  |

Regarding [Foundations of mathematics](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/5030): constructivism/intuitionism, structuralism, set-theoretic, logicism, or formalism?:

| **Group** | ***n *** | constructiv | formal | logicism | structural | set |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 600 | 15% | 6%  | 12% | 21% | 15% |
| Philosophers | 229 | 12% | 4%  | 12% | 24% | 17% |
| Philosophers of mathematics | 15  | 13% | 7%  | 7%  | 40% | 33% |

5\. Superstition
----------------

Regarding "[God](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4842): atheism or theism?" (with subfields ordered by percentage that answered "theism"):

| **Group** | ***n*** | **theism** |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophy (*Target*) | 1770 | 19% |
| Philosophy | 645 | 13% |
| Philosophy of religion | 27  | 74% |
| Medieval and Renaissance philosophy | 10  | 60% |
| Philosophy of action | 42  | 21% |
| 17th/18th century philosophy | 64  | 20% |
| 20th century philosophy | 36  | 19% |
| Metaphysics | 153 | 16% |
| Normative ethics | 132 | 16% |
| 19th century philosophy | 22  | 14% |
| Asian philosophy | 7   | 14% |
| Decision theory | 22  | 14% |
| Philosophy of mind | 135 | 13% |
| Aesthetics | 30  | 13% |
| Ancient Greek and Roman philosophy | 31  | 13% |
| Applied ethics | 64  | 13% |
| Epistemology | 153 | 13% |
| Logic and philosophy of logic | 70  | 13% |
| Philosophy of language | 128 | 12% |
| Philosophy of social science | 27  | 11% |
| Meta-ethics | 94  | 10% |
| Philosophy of law | 21  | 10% |
| Philosophy of mathematics | 20  | 10% |
| Social and political philosophy | 100 | 10% |
| Philosophy of gender, race, and sexuality | 23  | 9%  |
| Philosophy of biology | 24  | 8%  |
| Philosophy of physical science | 26  | 8%  |
| General philosophy of science | 65  | 6%  |
| Philosophy of cognitive science | 73  | 5%  |
| Philosophy of computing and information | 5   | 0%  |
| Philosophy of the Americas | 5   | 0%  |
| Continental philosophy | 15  | 0%  |
| Philosophy of computing and information (*Target*) | 25  | 0%  |
| Metaphilosophy | 29  | 0%  |

This question is 'philosophy in easy mode', so seems like a decent proxy for field health / competence (though the anti-religiosity of Marxism is a confounding factor in my eyes, for fields where Marx is influential).

The "A-theory of time" says that there is a unique objectively real "present", corresponding to "which time seems to me to be *right now*", that is universal and observer-independent, contrary to special relativity. The "B-theory of time" says that there is no such objective, universal "present".

This provides another good "reasonableness / basic science literacy" litmus test, so I'll order the subfields (where enough people in the field answered at all) by how much more they endorse B-theory over A-theory. Regarding "[Time](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4918): B-theory or A-theory?":

| **Group** | ***n*** | **A-theory** | **B-theory** | **diff** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophy (*Target*) | 1123 | 27% | 38% | 11% |
| Philosophy | 449 | 22% | 44% | 22% |
| 19th century philosophy | 13  | 31% | 8%  | -23% |
| Philosophy of religion | 22  | 45% | 27% | -18% |
| Medieval and Renaissance philosophy | 9   | 33% | 22% | -11% |
| Philosophy of law | 10  | 30% | 20% | -10% |
| Aesthetics | 18  | 22% | 17% | -5% |
| Philosophy of social science | 17  | 24% | 24% | 0%  |
| Social and political philosophy | 42  | 29% | 33% | 4%  |
| Philosophy of gender, race, and sexuality | 12  | 25% | 33% | 8%  |
| Ancient Greek and Roman philosophy | 21  | 24% | 33% | 9%  |
| Philosophy of action | 31  | 29% | 39% | 10% |
| 20th century philosophy | 22  | 23% | 36% | 13% |
| Normative ethics | 78  | 31% | 44% | 13% |
| Philosophy of cognitive science | 49  | 18% | 31% | 13% |
| Meta-ethics | 60  | 27% | 43% | 16% |
| Philosophy of mathematics | 17  | 12% | 29% | 17% |
| Asian philosophy | 5   | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Applied ethics | 29  | 31% | 52% | 21% |
| Epistemology | 113 | 21% | 42% | 21% |
| Philosophy of mind | 111 | 20% | 41% | 21% |
| 17th/18th century philosophy | 44  | 14% | 36% | 22% |
| Metaphilosophy | 23  | 17% | 39% | 22% |
| Metaphysics | 144 | 28% | 51% | 23% |
| Logic and philosophy of logic | 61  | 28% | 52% | 24% |
| Phil of computing and information (*Target*) | 20  | 25% | 50% | 25% |
| Philosophy of language | 107 | 22% | 54% | 32% |
| General philosophy of science | 48  | 19% | 56% | 37% |
| Philosophy of biology | 16  | 19% | 63% | 44% |
| Decision theory | 16  | 13% | 63% | 50% |
| Philosophy of physical science | 26  | 12% | 62% | 50% |

Decision theorists doing especially well here is surprising to me! Especially since they didn't excel on theism; if they'd hit both out of the park, from my perspective that would have been a straightforward update to "wow, decision theorists are really exceptionally reasonable as analytic philosophers go, even if they're getting Newcomb's problem in particular wrong".

As is, this still strikes me as a reason to be more optimistic that we might be able to converge with working decision theorists in the future. (Or perhaps more so, a reason to be *relatively* optimistic about persuading decision theorists vs. people working in most other philosophy areas.)

(*Added*: OK, after writing this I saw decision theorists do great on the 'personal identity' and 'mind uploading' questions, and am feeling much more confident that productive dialogue is possible. I've added those two questions earlier in this post.)

(*Added added*: OK, decision theorists are also unusually great on "which things are conscious?" and they apparently love MWI. How have we not converged more???)

6\. Identity politics topics
----------------------------

Regarding "[Race](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4966): social, unreal, or biological?":

| **Group** | ***n*** | **biological** | **social** | **unreal** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophy (*Target*) | 1649 | 19% | 63% | 15% |
| Philosophy | 591 | 21% | 67% | 12% |

(Note that many respondents said 'yes' to multiple options.)

7\. Metaphilosophy
------------------

Regarding "[Philosophical progress](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4958) (is there any?): a little, a lot, or none?":

| **Group ** | ***n*** | **none** | **a little** | **a lot** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1775 | 4%  | 47% | 42% |
| Philosophers | 645 | 3%  | 45% | 46% |

Regarding "[Philosophical knowledge](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/5114) (is there any?): a little, none, or a lot?":

| **Group ** | ***n*** | **none** | **a little** | **a lot** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philosophers (*Target*) | 1110 | 4%  | 33% | 56% |
| Philosophers | 397 | 4%  | 30% | 58% |

Another interesting result is "[Philosophical methods](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4962) (which methods are the most useful/important?)", which finds (looking at analogous-to-2009 departments):

*   66% of philosophers think "**conceptual analysis**" is especially important, 14% disagree.
*   60% say "**empirical philosophy**", 12% disagree.
*   59% say "**formal philosophy**", 10% disagree.
*   51% say "**intuition-based philosophy**", 27% disagree.
*   44% say "**linguistic philosophy**", 23% disagree.
*   39% say "**conceptual engineering**", 23% disagree.
*   29% say "**experimental philosophy**", 39% disagree.

8\. How have philosophers' views changed since 2009?
----------------------------------------------------

Bourget and Chalmers' paper has a table for the largest changes in philosophers' views since 2009:

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/32ab696e960d5bd17741d6714f0fdf1fdc517ecbf2daa1e5.png)

As noted earlier in this post, one of the larger shifts in philosophers' views was a move away from moral internalism and toward externalism.

On 'which do you endorse, classical logic or non-classical?' (a strange question, but maybe this is something like 'what kind of logic is reality's source code written in?'), non-classical logic is roughly as unpopular as ever, but fewer now endorse classical logic, and more give answers like "insufficiently familiar with the issue" and "the question is too unclear to answer":

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/81a30d5d16043623ec9f657ce881b52effa12f79e94cde42.png)

[Epistemic contextualism](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/contextualism-epistemology/) says that the accuracy of your claim that someone "knows" something depends partly on contextual features — e.g., the standards for "knowledge" can rise "as the stakes rise or the skeptical doubts become more serious".

Here, it was the less popular view (invariantism) that lost favor; and the view that lost favor again lost it via an increase in 'other' answers (especially  "insufficiently familiar with the issue" and "agnostic/undecided") more so than increased favor for its rival view (contextualism):

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/fd5cf7dace1729a651d27f5ced5b4f709fbddeecfcbfd420.png)

Humeanism (a misnomer, since Hume himself wasn't a Humean, though his skeptical arguments helped inspire the Humeans) say that "laws of nature" aren't fundamentally different from other observed regularities, they're just patterns that humans have given a fancy high-falutin name to; whereas anti-Humeans think there's something deeper about laws of nature, that they in some sense 'necessitate' things to go one way rather than another.

(Maybe Humeans = 'laws of nature are program outputs like any other', non-Humeans = 'laws of nature are part of reality's source code'?)

Once again, one view lost favor (the more popular view, non-Humeanism), but the other didn't gain favor; instead, more people endorsed "insufficiently familiar with the issue", and "agnostic/undecided", etc.:

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/5b60d53c6c6a1108619cb59affe40f3b9e658880f5c457d7.png)

Philosophers in 2020 are more likely to say that "yes", humans have *a priori* knowledge of some things (already very much the dominant view):

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/d98e081a0112a426bdeebd884a9c6b0fe3963fa756388e67.png)

'Aesthetic value is objective' was favored over 'subjective' (by 3%) in 2009; now 'subjective' is favored over 'objective' (by 4%). "Agnostic/undecided" also gained ground.

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/9a70200fc8e3cd285c4c861d40b15cf72189bcab5c796594.png)

Philosophers mostly endorsed "switch" in the trolley dilemma, and still do; but "don't switch" gained a bit of ground, and "insufficiently familiar with the issue" lost ground.

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/f5be101b87c10074c526e173494c7567a47ab7527162a0a8.png)

[Moral realism](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4866) also became a bit more popular (was endorsed by 56% of philosophers, now 60%), as did [compatibilism about free will](https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/4838) (was 59% compatibilism, 14% libertarianism, 12% no free will; now 62%, 13%. and 10%).

The paper also looked at the individual respondents who answered the survey in both 2009 and 2020. Individuals tended to update away from switching in the trolley dilemma, away from consequentialism, and toward virtue ethics and non-cognitivism. They also updated toward Platonism about abstract objects, and away from 'no free will'.

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/5123ed4b7683ffe62a62ed5d5f611a7b254d235afb9385e0.png)

These are all comparisons across 2009-target-population philosophers in general, however. In most (though not all) cases, I'm more interested in the views of subfields specialized in investigating and debating a topic, and how the subfield's view changes over time. Hence my earlier sections largely focused on particular fields of philosophy.