# Sentinel's Global Risks Weekly Roundup #12/2025: Famine in Gaza, H7N9 outbreak, US geopolitical leadership weakening.

Executive summary
-----------------

Forecasters believe there’s an 18% chance (range: 4%-50%) that there will be a famine in any part of Gaza by the end of 2025, according to the UN and its Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). A Category 5 rating would result in a positive resolution, with the last IPC update suggesting that all of Gaza was in Category 4.

As the US is becoming a less reliable geopolitical ally, countries from France to South Korea are making their own moves. The UK Government hosted military leaders in London to plan for a possible deployment of troops to Ukraine, with the French President saying that Russia’s permission is not needed for this. On whether there will be a military confrontation between Russia and the UK and/or France that results in at least 10 fatalities before the end of 2025, forecasters assigned a 4% chance (range: 2%-10%) to this outcome.

Researchers say they have found a "Moore's Law for AI Agents", with the length of software tasks that AIs can do doubling every 7 months or so, and top AI companies continue to fetch multibillion dollar valuations.

In the US, the conflict between the Trump administration and the judiciary grew, as the Trump administration continued to weaken the separation of powers. Trump called for the impeachment of a federal judge, and the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court rebuked him, saying that the administration should instead appeal decisions that it doesn’t agree with.

Biosecurity in the US is taking a turn for the worse, with the NIH signalling it’s unlikely to fund research into promising mRNA vaccines, a new H7N9 outbreak, and an ongoing measles outbreak.

The US wants to negotiate with Iran, but Iran accuses it of using “bullying tactics”. Forecasters assign a 16% chance (range: 8%-30%) to the US conducting an airstrike on Iranian soil by the end of 2025.

Long tail of events
===================

*We recommend that readers focus on bold items and their sections of interest, and skim the rest.*

Biorisks
--------

**There has been an** [**outbreak**](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-reported-first-outbreak-h7n9-bird-flu-farm-since-2017-woah-says-2025-03-17/) **of highly pathogenic avian influenza H7N9 on a chicken farm in Mississippi, US.** An HPAI H7 strain has not been spotted in commercial poultry in the US since in 2017. H7N9 strains [caused](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8327827/) over 1500 confirmed human infections in China from 2013 to 2017, so the strain detected in the US likely poses a risk of zoonotic infections as well, perhaps inherently comparable to that for H5N1 or potentially even greater. The case fatality rate of H7N9 strains is around 39% in humans, but as with H5N1, the actual infection fatality rate is probably much lower. Fortunately, however, H7N9 has been relatively uncommon in wild birds in North America, so the overall risk to humans from H7N9 in the US is currently low, because there just isn’t much of the virus around.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the United States Secretary of Health and Human Services, [suggested that](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/health/kennedy-bird-flu.html) instead of culling birds when bird flu infections are discovered, farmers “should consider maybe the possibility of letting it run through the flock so that we can identify the birds, and preserve the birds, that are immune to it”. Kennedy does not have jurisdiction over agriculture, but the Agriculture Secretary has also expressed support for the idea. Many scientists say that each extra infection would provide an opportunity for the virus to mutate, and that the idea would put farm workers at greater risk.

**NIH officials have** [**asked**](https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/nih-grants-mrna-vaccines-trump-administration-hhs-rfk/) **researchers to remove references to mRNA vaccines from their grant applications**, suggesting that the NIH may no longer fund research into mRNA vaccines. This would be a blow to the development of many vaccines against cancers and emerging infectious diseases.

The measles outbreak in the US may [take a year](https://www.statnews.com/2025/03/18/measles-outbreak-could-last-a-year-texas-public-health-official-predicts/) or longer to contain; measles could again become endemic in the US.

Scientists are [warning](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/20/chronic-wasting-disease-spread-zombie-deer-global-us-aoe) of the growing possibility of a “spillover” of chronic wasting disease (CWD) from infected deer to humans who eat game meat. However, to date, only two human cases of prion disease have been [linked](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hunters-die-prion-brain-disease-contaminated-deer-meat-report/) to eating venison from affected deer. The disease is caused by prions (infectious proteins). The [prions that cause CWD](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/cervid/chronic-wasting/cwd-specifics) are released into the environment by affected deer in feces, urine, and saliva, and the prions are extraordinarily persistent in the environment and are resistant even to incineration. CWD prions are also [taken up by plants](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/chronic-wasting-disease/plants-can-take-cwd-causing-prions-soil-lab-what-happens-if-they-are-eaten). If the disease were transmissible to humans, it would pose a major threat to humanity; however, disease transmission would have to change dramatically for CWD to pose a substantial threat to humans.  
  
In the US, Musk’s DOGE fired some of the experts who maintain a critical seed and plant bank, the USDA’s National Plant Germplasm System (NPGS), in Aberdeen, Idaho, established in 1892. Approximately 300 NPGS scientists maintain more than 600,000 genetic lines of more than 200 crop species at 22 locations. The NPGS has been a source of disease-resistant lines when crop diseases have emerged, and the genetic diversity in this bank could likely be of critical use again. A judge has ordered the federal government to rehire the NPGS experts that were fired, but it is unclear when they will be able to return to work. The seeds and plants banked by the NPGS must be cared for continuously and periodically replanted to survive.

Geopolitics
-----------

### Middle East

**UNICEF** [**warned that**](https://tribune.com.pk/story/2534446/acute-child-malnutrition-in-gaza-doubles-in-a-month-unicef-warns) **acute child malnutrition in Gaza has doubled in a month, and UNRWA says that there is only six days’ worth of flour** [**left to distribute**](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/situation-gaza-gravely-concerning-aid-massively-reduced-unrwa-says-2025-03-21/) **in Gaza.** The [last](https://archive.is/https://fews.net/middle-east-and-asia/gaza/alert/november-2024) Famine Early Warning System update warned that an IPC 5 famine would occur unless food supply flows were to dramatically increase.

China, Russia and Iran call for dialogue and a return to the JCPOA as the “only viable option” to solve the Iranian nuclear issue, perhaps as [opposed to](http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/OPINIONS_209196/Opinions_209197/16375155.html) Iran running a covert nuclear program and some combination of Israel and the US bombing it.

Israel [ended](https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2025/3/18/israel-ends-ceasefire-in-gaza-2) the ceasefire in Gaza, killing hundreds. The US bombed Yemen, [killing](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/3/16/live-us-bombs-yemen-killing-13-after-houthis-pause-attacks-on-israel) 13, after the Houthis threatened Israel over Gaza.

Syria is to [receive](https://tribune.com.pk/story/2534838/syria-to-receive-25b-euros-in-eu-aid-to-support-post-war-recovery) 2.5 billion Euros in aid as its new government collects aid following the fall of Assad.

The US wants to [negotiate with Iran](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/23/us-wants-to-negotiate-with-iran-on-nuclear-programme-us-envoy), while Iran accuses it of using “bullying tactics”.

### Europe

**French President Emmanuel Macron** [**said that**](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/16/macron-says-russias-permission-not-needed-to-deploy-troops-in-ukraine) **Russia's permission is not needed for France, Britain and other nations to deploy troops to Ukraine.** Any deployment would likely [involve](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz8jlxlk3o) each country sending a few thousand troops to key locations, such as cities, ports and energy infrastructure. The UK [hosted](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62z1w1y2neo) military leaders in London to plan for such a deployment of troops, currently dubbed the Multinational Force Ukraine (MFU).

Macron also [floated](https://kyivindependent.com/macron-considers-un-peacekeeping-mission-for-ukraine-in-case-of-peace-deal-telegraph-reports/) the idea of a UN peacekeeping force to be deployed to the country, which would require Russia's permission at the UN Security Council. The historical efficacy of such forces is disputed, but most studies seem to find a positive effect.

Putin [agreed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd65pz1p7d9o) to a partial ceasefire in a call with Trump, with energy infrastructure to be off limits for both sides, but unlike Ukrainian President Zelensky, Putin did not agree to a full ceasefire. Meanwhile, Trump [said that](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62k1w7z5rro) Ukraine's power plants would be safer if the US were in control of them, and the United States [reportedly](https://www.ft.com/content/88e4ea22-3a27-4e68-9c6e-4a008f257522) wants to alter the minerals deal that it was set to sign with Ukraine in order to incorporate other Ukrainian assets such as power plants.

The Ukrainian Army [has](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0q198zyppqo) been retreating from the Russian region of Kursk.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk [said that](https://bsky.app/profile/donald-tusk.bsky.social/post/3lkl3nmky6s2d) Lithuanian prosecutors have bolstered his view that the Russian secret services set fire to shopping centres in Warsaw and Vilnius.

**Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland** [**have announced**](https://kyivindependent.com/estonia-latvia-lithuania-poland-to-withdraw-from-anti-personnel-mine-ban-treaty/) **their intention to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention, which bans** the use, production, and stockpiling of **anti-personnel mines**, citing a deteriorating security situation in their region.

Leading European military powers, including France, Germany, and the UK, [are](https://www.ft.com/content/939b695c-7df8-412d-a430-df988c98f2ca) working on a 5-10 year plan to replace the US’s role in NATO. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [called for](https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-ukraine-russia-collective-arms-purchases-by-2030/) [collective arms purchasing](https://www.ft.com/content/aedd1e6b-fb4f-41fd-af10-af9dce6f88dc) for the entire EU.

A fire [broke out](https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-heathrow-airport-closing-after-fire-at-nearby-electrical-substation-fire-and-power-outage/) at an electrical substation close to London’s Heathrow Airport, causing flights to be grounded for most of Friday. Counter-terrorism police are investigating the cause.  
  
Over 1,000 protestors have been [detained](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-detains-nine-journalists-over-protests-against-istanbul-mayors-arrest-2025-03-24/) across Turkey amid days of massive demonstrations following the detention of Erdogan’s main political rival.

### Asia-Pacific

In India, [ongoing](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/fresh-shutdown-in-curfew-bound-churachandpur-mlas-tribal-bodies-appeal-for-peace-101742387740092.html) ethnic strife in Manipur has led to the shutdown of educational institutions.

Some South Korean politicians [are worried](https://asiatimes.com/2025/03/alarmed-by-trump-south-korea-mulls-japan-style-nuclear-latency/) about the US’s reliability as an ally after Trump’s confrontation with Zelensky and are pushing for a Japan-style latent nuclear option.

Taiwan [is planning](https://archive.is/20250319061002/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/taiwan-sets-2027-for-possible-china-invasion-in-first-for-drills) military readiness exercises that assume a Chinese invasion by 2027.

### The Americas

Trump stated that a judge who ruled against him about the deportation of alleged Venezuelan gang members should be impeached. Chief Justice of the Supreme Court John Roberts, a conservative appointee, [issued](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-federal-judges-impeachment-29da1153a9f82106748098a6606fec39) a rare rebuke, writing that, “For more than two centuries, it has been established that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreement concerning a judicial decision. The normal appellate review process exists for that purpose.”

A federal judge [ruled that](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdx2pz1l11jo) the attempted dismantling of USAID is unconstitutional.

The Trump Administration is in the process of [rehiring](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-probationary-workers-mass-firing-rehired/) more than 24,000 employees who had been fired as part of DOGE efforts, as ordered by a second federal judge.

A judge [ordered](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/21/us/politics/social-security-dudek-judge-doge.html) the Social Security Administration (SSA) to prevent DOGE from gaining access to databases containing personal data. SSA Acting Commissioner Dudek countered with a threat that, to comply with the court's order, the administration would need to stop work. The judge countered with [two](https://x.com/trumplitigation/status/1903153501825536084) [letters](https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/1903282740482433399) directing Dudek not to shut down all operations. Dudek stated that he would comply.

A number of US economic indicators are flashing red, but [not by any means all of them](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-22/is-us-recession-concern-rising-under-trump-s-trade-tariff-policies). The percentage of US consumers who think business conditions will be worse one year from now is [nearly 60%](https://x.com/Birdyword/status/1901271984924676577), the highest since at least 1980. Corporate insiders are [selling shares](https://x.com/Barchart/status/1901362642692018633) at the highest rate in at least two decades. A Bank of America survey found that global fund managers are [moving assets out](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stocks-down-trump-tariffs-trade-wars/) of US equities in the "biggest drop in U.S. equity allocation ever," and that 55% of fund managers [viewed](https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-2025-warning-economy-outlook-growth-slowdown-debt-stocks-rates-2025-3) a [global recession](https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-correction-selloff-us-investor-reaction-record-dump-2025-3) triggered by a trade war as the top tail risk for the market. US auto loan applications are being [rejected](https://x.com/Barchart/status/1901804610991300825) at the highest rate in more than a decade. 42% of US mortgage refinancing applications are being [rejected](https://x.com/Barchart/status/1901831132510814490), the highest rate in over a decade. US CEO confidence has [fallen](https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1902764541814911310) to its lowest level in over a decade.  
  
In Canada, an index that measures small-business confidence over the coming 12 months has [fallen](https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:452446:0-canada-small-business-optimism-tumbles-to-record-low/) to an all-time low and is at its lowest point in a quarter century, as fears over the effects of Trump’s tariffs mount. In 2023, [78%](https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1903488114661736640) of Canadian exports went to the US. US tariffs on Canadian goods could have a severe impact on the Canadian economy.

Tech
----

**METR claims to have** [**found**](https://x.com/METR_Evals/status/1902384481111322929) **a "Moore's Law for AI Agents", with the length of tasks that AIs can do reportedly doubling every 7 months or so.** The tasks that METR tested the systems on were particularly relevant to AI research and engineering, so this trend seems important for anticipating the point at which a fast takeoff may become possible. The authors of the paper write: “Naively extrapolating the trend in horizon length implies that AI will reach a time horizon of >1 month (167 work hours) between late 2028 and early 2031.” [Some](https://x.com/DKokotajlo67142/status/1902396549302513782) have [posited](https://x.com/davidad/status/1902393419051274331) that the trend may even be superexponential. However, [others](https://x.com/tamaybes/status/1902537990062342547) have [argued](https://x.com/MatthewJBar/status/1902496645956432282) that these findings are somewhat contingent on task selection.

![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea96f4b6-91ab-4e7c-8962-b7b82148143b_1564x933.jpeg)

Perplexity AI [is in](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/perplexity-ai-talks-raise-funds-18-billion-valuation-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-03-20/) talks to raise funds at an $18 billion valuation. Cloud computing company CoreWeave is [targeting](https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-backed-coreweave-aims-raise-up-27-billion-us-ipo-2025-03-20/) a $32 billion valuation in their IPO. SoftBank [bought](https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/softbank-group-acquire-ampere-computing-65-billion-deal-2025-03-19/) US chip company Ampere Computing for $6.5 billion.

DeepSeek has been [banned](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/us-commerce-department-bureaus-ban-chinas-deepseek-government-devices-sources-2025-03-17/) on US government devices.

OpenAI and Elon Musk [agreed to](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-musk-agree-fast-tracked-trial-over-for-profit-shift-2025-03-15/) a fast-tracked trial over OpenAI’s attempted shift to a for-profit structure.

Elon Musk [told](https://x.com/ai_ctrl/status/1902727261997928695) Ted Cruz that he thinks there’s a 20% chance, maybe 10%, that AI annihilates humanity in the next 5 to 10 years.

The US Department of Energy estimates that data centers could [triple](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ceraweek-data-center-build-out-stokes-fears-overburdening-biggest-us-grid-2025-03-13/) their demand for electricity by 2028, consuming up to 12% of total US electricity by that time, up from 4.4% in 2023. The increasing demand for electricity by data centers will place increasing strains on the aging US electric grid.