# 2022 ACX predictions: market prices

As part of the [2022 ACX prediction contest](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest), which I am co-running with [Eric Neyman](https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/), I wanted to get market prices for all of the predictions.[^rjxvqhtpq1] These market prices will be included with the contest data, which should be released soon.

This ended up being harder than I expected, and I can't guarantee this data is error-free. So in the interest of transparency, I'm making this post to explain where all the numbers came from. 

Before I get into it, some notes:

*   These are supposed to be market prices **as of February 14, 2022**, which was the last day for contest submissions. 
    *   In some cases (like when backing a probability out of a Metaculus probability distribution) I didn't know how to get historical data. If it didn't look to me like the market had moved much since 2/14, I instead used the predictions as of today, March 5.
*   When aggregating predictions from different markets, I'm weighting them according to how many stars they get from [Metaforecast](https://metaforecast.org/), when available. When not available, I'm using my judgement.
    *   Many of the Manifold markets were very lightly traded, some having only 1 or 2 bets. I tried to note this below when I noticed it.
*   There was some personal judgement involved in e.g. deciding whether a market asked close enough to the right thing to be relevant, adding or subtracting a few percentage points to PredictIt markets which don't sum to 100%, etc. If it seems like I misjudged anything here, it's possibly because I did.
*   I also expect that there's at least one outright error from something silly like copying the wrong number.
*   So: if you see anything wrong **please let me know**! Also please let me know if there's a relevant market which I missed or if you see a way to back predictions out of financial markets which I didn't think of (I've noted such cases below).

Anyway, here we go:

**Scott predictions**

1.  Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than fifty percent: **14 **  
    **(**12 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-bidens-approval-rating-as-per); also [this market](https://kalshi.com/markets/APPROVE-016) from Kalshi saying 20% for having approval >45% on election day in November)
2.  At least $250 million in damage from a single round of mass protests in US: **36** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-at-least-250-million))
3.  PredictIt thinks Joe Biden is most likely 2024 Dem nominee: **73** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-predictit-think-joe-biden-is-t))
4.  PredictIt thinks Donald Trump is most likely 2024 GOP nominee: **60** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-predictit-think-donald-trump-i))
5.  Major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict: **76** (88 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse); 60% chance of invasion from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/))
6.  Major flare-up (worse than past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict: **15** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse-b7056bbf21be))
7.  Major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict: **15** (20 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse-435705c69623); 10% chance of military conflict from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8885/conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan-by-2023/))
8.  Honduran ZEDEs legally crippled to the point where no reasonable person would invest in them further: **None** (no one had yet made a bet in the [Manifold market](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-honduran-zedes-be-legally-crip))
9.  New ZEDE approved in Honduras: **None** (no one has made a bet in the [Manifold market](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-new-zede-approved-i) *even now*)
10.  Gamestop stock price still above $100: **50** ([GME options](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?date=1674172800&p=GME); [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-gamestops-stock-price-still-be) said 24%, but there were 2 bets so I'm ignoring it)
11.  Bitcoin above 100K: **8** (5 from [BTC options](https://legacy.deribit.com/main#/options?tab=BTC-30DEC22); 11 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8903/bitcoin-price-on-dec-31-2022/); 33 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-bitcoin-be-above-100k-at-the-e))
12.  Ethereum above 5K: **20** (17 from [ETH options](https://legacy.deribit.com/main#/options?tab=ETH-30DEC22); 83(!) from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-ethereum-above-5k-at-the-end-o))
13.  Ethereum above 0.05 BTC: **36** (from 2 [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-ethereum-be-above-005-btc-at-t) bets; I don't know of a way to back this out of options prices but would love to hear suggestions)
14.  Dow above 35K: **54** ([Dow options](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/options?.tsrc=fin-srch&date=1674172800&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubGVzc3dyb25nLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAD8qQpWZKv73LXjhbibf9aMxX7aJf4z7JlZSYbLqu26sKCnEw7ti7YE3S4sd3EdwrFJFH403tuGSyvx-N1XXS012X1CC8s0bvmffeuyJCt4lFf6fINzWNbeD44HhKfE2wPFpSgIBECdNMoHqIE-CPtWTogFi-RqliFw6Ont7FTbw&p=DIA); ignoring the one (1) [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-the-dow-be-above-35k-at-the-en) bet)
15.  Dow above 37.5K: **30** ([Dow options](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/options?.tsrc=fin-srch&date=1674172800&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubGVzc3dyb25nLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAD8qQpWZKv73LXjhbibf9aMxX7aJf4z7JlZSYbLqu26sKCnEw7ti7YE3S4sd3EdwrFJFH403tuGSyvx-N1XXS012X1CC8s0bvmffeuyJCt4lFf6fINzWNbeD44HhKfE2wPFpSgIBECdNMoHqIE-CPtWTogFi-RqliFw6Ont7FTbw&p=DIA); ignoring the 3 [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-the-dow-be-above-375k-at-the-e) bets)
16.  Inflation for the year below five percent: **45** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-inflation-be-below-5-for-the-y); the financial markets probably have an opinion about this but I don't know how to find it - would appreciate any help!)
17.  Unemployment below five percent in December: **73** ([Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/LU3-002) said 92% that unemployment never goes above 6%; 49 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-unemployment-be-below-5-in-dec))
18.  Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked: **14** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-google-widely-allow-remote-wor))
19.  Starship reaches orbit: **94** (71 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-starship-reach-orbit-in-2022); 97 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/))
20.  Fewer than 10K daily average official COVID cases in US in December 2022: **None** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-fewer-than-10k-daily) had no bettors)
21.  Fewer than 50K daily average COVID cases worldwide in December 2022: **2** (congrats to the *one* person who bet on this on [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-fewer-than-50k-daily))
22.  >66% US population fully vaccinated (by current standards) against COVID: **80** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-66-us-population-be-fully-vacc))
23.  India's official case count is higher than US: **None** (no bettors on [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-indias-official-covid-case-cou))
24.  Medical establishment reverses course and officially says any of Vitamin D, HCQ, or ivermectin is actually effective against COVID: **9** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-the-medical-establishment-reve))
25.  FDA approves a COVID indication for fluvoxamine: **None** (*still* no bets on [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-fda-approve-a-covid-indication))
26.  Some new variant not currently known is greater than 25% of cases: **79** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-some-new-covid-variant-not-cur))
27.  Most people Scott sees in his local grocery store on December 31st are wearing masks: **38** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-most-people-scott-sees-in-his))
28.  Masks still required on US domestic flights: **51** (47 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-masks-still-be-required-on-us); 53 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9571/when-airplane-travelers-mask-free-in-usa/))
29.  CDC recommends that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax: **61** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-cdc-recommend-that-triplevaxxe))
30.  China has fewer than 100,000 COVID cases this year (official estimate): **None** (sad [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-china-have-fewer-than-100000-c))
31.  No new real-money prediction market becomes bigger than Polymarket: **61** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-no-new-realmoney-prediction-ma))
32.  Manifold Markets is still alive and active: **91**(a *very* optimistic [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-manifold-markets-still-be-aliv))
33.  New legal US real-money prediction market at least half as big as Kalshi: **12** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-new-legal-us-realmo))
34.  New illegal but easy-to-use market satisfying the above: **42** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-new-illegal-but-eas))

**Future Perfect predictions**

1.  Inflation for the year under three percent: **29** (33 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7977/inflation-above-3-in-2022/) (technically for Dec 2021 to Dec 2022); 25 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-inflation-in-the-us-will-avera))
2.  Democrats will lose their majorities in the House and Senate: **73** (73 from [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election); 72 from [Smarkets](https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2022-house-and-senate-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control); 65 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate-in-2022/); 84 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-democrats-lose-their-majoritie))
3.  Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade: **46** (62 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8977/roe-v-wade-overturned-before-2023/); 26 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-the-supreme-court-overturn-roe))
4.  Emmanuel Macron will be reelected president of France: **77** (75 from [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/market/will-emmanuel-macron-win-the-2022-french-presidential-election); 79 from [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7360/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-France-in-2022); 74 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/); 79 from [Smarkets](https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022); 81 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-emmanuel-macron-will-be-reelec))
5.  Jair Bolsonaro will be reelected president of Brazil: **28** (25 from [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/market/will-jair-bolsonaro-win-2022-presidential-elections-in-brazil); 26 from [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7358/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Brazil-in-2022); 34 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/); 25 from [Smarkets](https://smarkets.com/event/42220777/politics/world/brazil/brazilian-presidential-election-2022); 33 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-jair-bolsonaro-be-reelected-pr))
6.  Bongbong Marcos will be elected president of the Philippines: **76** (80 from [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022); 75 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8980/marcos-wins-2022-philippine-election/); 63 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-bongbong-marcos-will-be-electe))
7.  China will NOT reopen its borders at any point during the first half of 2022: **98** ([Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9038/quarantine-free-us-travel-to-china/) (market is technically about whether US travelers will need to quarantine); still no bets on [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-china-not-reopen-its-borders-i)) 
8.  Chinese GDP will continue to grow for the first 3/4 of the year: **95** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-chinese-gdp-continue-to-grow-f))
9.  20% of US kids between 0.5 and 5 years old will get at least one COVID vaccine by year's end: **56** (50 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9043/-of-us-children-under-5-covid-19-vaccinated/); 68 from two bets on [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-20-of-us-kids-between-05-and-5))
10.  WHO will designate another Variant Of Concern: **76** (76 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8997/new-variant-of-concern-in-2022/); 77 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-who-designate-another-variant))
11.  12 billion COVID shots will be given out globally by November 1st: **92** ([Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8872/covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-2023/); ignoring one bet from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-12-billion-covid-shots-will-be))
12.  At least one country will have less than 10% of people vaccinated with two shots by November 1st: **81**([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-at-least-one-country-have-less); [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8989/1-nations-with-10-covid-vaccine-by-2023/) has a market that only counts countries that are releasing data, so e.g. not North Korea; FP and Scott might resolve this one differently)
13.  A psychedelic drug will be decriminalized/legalized in at least one more US state: **57** (59 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8998/1-us-state-legalizes-a-psychedelic-in-2022/); 55 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-a-psychedelic-drug-be-decrimin))
14.  AI will discover a new drug promising enough for clinical trials: **71** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-ai-will-discover-a-new-drug-pr))
15.  US government will NOT renew the ban on funding gain-of-function research: **73** (74 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8992/us-ends-funding-gof-research-in-2022/); 71 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-us-govt-not-renew-the-ban-on-f))
16.  The Biden administration will set the social cost of carbon at $100/ton or more: **35** (31 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9000/us-social-cost-of-carbon-in-2022/); 49 from two bets on [Manifold](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9000/us-social-cost-of-carbon-in-2022/))
17.  2022 will be warmer than 2021: **70** (62 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8991/2022-warmer-than-2021/); 80 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-2022-will-be-warmer-than-2021))
18.  Kenneth Branagh's Belfast will win Best Picture: **36** (35 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8982/belfast-2021-wins-best-picture-oscar/); 37 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-kenneth-branaghs-belfast-will))

**Matt Yglesias predictions**

1.  Democrats lose at least two Senate seats: **53** (63 from [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7586/How-many-Senate-seats-will-the-GOP-control-after-the-midterms); 48 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9080/democrats-in-senate-after-2022/); 45 eyeballed from [Smarkets](https://smarkets.com/event/42368868/politics/us/2022-house-and-senate-elections/2022-senate-elections-democratic-seats) (their binning wasn't compatible with this question))
2.  Democrats lose fewer than six Senate seats: **92** ([PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7586/How-many-Senate-seats-will-the-GOP-control-after-the-midterms) and [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9080/democrats-in-senate-after-2022/)) 
3.  Nancy Pelosi announces retirement plans: **42** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/nancy-pelosi-announces-retirement-p); but maybe there's a way to back this out of other markets?)
4.  Joe Biden is still president: **91** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/joe-biden-is-still-president-at-the))
5.  At least one Biden cabinet-rank official resigns: **None** (couldn't find any markets)
6.  No military conflict between the PRC and Taiwan: **89** (90 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8885/conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan-by-2023/); 86 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/no-military-conflict-between-the-pr))
7.  Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations: **None** (couldn't find any markets)
8.  Fewer US Covid deaths in 2022 than in 2021: **96** ([Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8873/confirmed-us-covid-19-deaths-by-2023/))
9.  Emmanuel Macron re-elected: **77** (same as above; this appeared twice in the contest, oops)
10.  Liz Cheney loses primary: **77** (78 from [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL); 74 from [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/liz-cheney-loses-primary-in-2022))
11.  Some version of USICA passes Congress: **80** ([Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/USICA-001))
12.  Lula elected president of Brazil: **70** (67 from [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/market/will-luiz-da-silva-win-2022-presidential-elections-in-brazil); 72 from [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7358/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Brazil-in-2022))
13.  China officially abandons Covid Zero: **74** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/china-officially-abandons-covid-zer))
14.  Additional booster shots of mRNA vaccines authorized for seniors: **None** (couldn't find any markets)
15.  The Fed ends up doing more than its currently forecast three interest rate hikes: **84** (SOFR futures; see [this comment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rT8AkEcBnfX8ZdSLs/?commentId=Gj7Lsb3cxjn78fQFA) by SimonM)
16.  Viktor Orbán loses power in Hungary: **26** (17 from [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7643/Who-will-be-the-prime-minister-of-Hungary-on-July-1); 20 from [Smarkets](https://smarkets.com/event/42544088/politics/europe/hungary/hungarian-pm-on-1-july-2022); 45 from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9609/orb%25C3%25A1n-wins-2022-hungarian-election/) on whether he loses the election; why the big difference here - is there concern that he would win the election and lose power anyway?)
17.  Sinn Fein becomes the largest party in the Northern Ireland assembly: **80** ([Smarkets](https://smarkets.com/event/42262662/politics/uk/scotland/next-northern-ireland-assembly-election-most-seats))
18.  Democrats lose at least one governor on net: **76** ([Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/democrats-go-down-at-least-one-gove))

[^rjxvqhtpq1]: See also the excellent work of SimonM, who did this exercise for Scott's 2021 predictions.