# Orient Speed in the 21st Century

*I wrote this post with an audience of "artists who are worried about AI" in mind, published on a new blog,* [*The Human Spirit*](https://thehumanspirit.substack.com/)*. *[^0ld0oswdhte]

My guess is, the 21st century will be a period of rapid change, that feels kinda crazy. I think there’ll be a few skills that used to be a Nice-to-Have (like knowing how to dance well), and that turn into more like a necessity (like reading and writing).

A particular skill I think will be important for people to cultivate is *orient speed.*

By “orient speed”, I mean: The skill of noticing when some new information has major ramifications. And, instead of shrugging and moving on with whatever you were doing anyway – rapidly thinking through the new implications, and re-evaluate your plans.

We spend much of our lives on autopilot – we get up, make our morning coffee, go to work, hang out with some friends or family in the evening, without having to explicitly strategize about it. You may have a way of living your life that mostly works for you. But sometimes life throws you a curveball. You get fired, your romantic partner breaks up with you, there’s a global pandemic. You need to figure out a new way to live your life.

I think the 21st century is going to throw us a lot of curveballs.

Three examples of what I mean by “curveball” are the rise of social media (and various downstream effects on mental health and social organization), the global covid pandemic (which both disrupted the lives of individual people and triggered significant government response), and the invention of AI generated artwork (which is in the process of radically changing the professional art world).

There’s some stable and comforting about having plans. Often, when people’s plans are disrupted, they look for a way to stick to those plans, and tell themselves the disruption isn’t that bad. Sometimes they’re right.

But sometimes, they find themselves having slid into an autopilot of “use social media for years without reflecting on whether it’s making you angry or anxious or lower-attentions-span”. Or, they find their existing autopilots no longer working because they are now working from home, and a lot of their habits for getting moving and energized no longer work (i.e. during a pandemic it may be less natural to get a brisk walk in each day if you don’t need to go to work. Or, you may not have a natural place to socially unwind with coworkers around the watercooler).

It used to be that the world changed very slowly – people did the same jobs and roles for generations. Since the industrial revolution, it’s started to change faster – industries get disrupted every couple decades. I think that’s going to start coming faster, both because of artificial intelligence, and because of how globally connected the world has become.

Whatever industry you work in, over the next decade or so, it’ll probably get disrupted by AI in some way. Moreover, it’ll likely get disrupted *multiple times*, so it’s not enough to learn to adapt to one new change. You need to *learn to adapt to changes, continually*.

This may feel kind of exhausting. It kinda is. But, becomes less exhausting until it’s just sorta normal. Meanwhile I think you can start to practice individual skills in lower-stakes contexts.

There is a skill of noticing change.

There is a skill of realizing the implications of that change.

There is a skill to emotionally handling those implications, if they are scary or disruptive.

There is a skill of, when all is said and done, putting the effort into thinking through new life plans, if your old life plans look like they won’t work anymore.

Most people take weeks or months to really respond to new information that disrupts their major life plans. But you can change your mindset to how you relate to new information, such that it feels less disorienting and you can quickly figure out how to strategize in the new world you find yourself in.

There’s a lot of depth to each of those four skills. The same way that drawing can start with you scribbling something in crayon that mom puts on the fridge, and escalate all the way up to painting the Sistine Chapel – there is a wide range of skill you can have at “realizing the implications of something”, and there’s a wide range of skill you can have at emotionally processing it, and acting on it.

“Orienting” is what I call the collective output of “notice / realize implications / emotionally process / replan”.

I’m hoping to convince you that orienting is a skill, and that you can get better at it.

Some examples of future posts that’ll go into more detail:

*   The Pandemic as case study, of what various levels of “orient skill” looks like.
*   Emotional whiplash, and navigating what you think the world is “supposed” to look like.
*   The Art of Grieving, when something changes that was deeply important to you. (this [existing post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PHnMDhfiadQt6Gj23/the-art-of-grieving-well) is pretty good)
*   “Looking ahead” – seeing some evidence, and extrapolating where it’ll lead.
*   Cultivating an outlook of “reorienting is normal and ordinary, not an intense special occasion.”

In other future posts, I might talk more about the specific implications of AI – what I think it’ll mean for jobs, what it’ll mean for art, what it’ll mean for “meaning.” And, what it’ll mean for humanity as a whole.

But, everything I have to say about that rests on a background belief that “orienting quickly and smoothly” is one of the most important skills you need, that any the practical advice I have will be built on.

[^0ld0oswdhte]: The blog is not ready for primetime yet, I'm reworking some framing and experimenting with ways of tackling various issues.