# Predictions for 2021 (+ a template for yours)

How do you make new year's predictions?

1. **Assemble a list of predictions about what you think will happen in the next year.**
2. **Assign probabilities to each item.** I follow the approach of picking a limited number of probabilities (51%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90%) and assigning one to each item that I have an opinion on. You could also use the full 0 – 100% range and bin the probabilities when you assess them.
3. **At the end of the year, score your predictions**. You then get to assemble a sense of your calibration!

The first item on that list is where I usually get stuck, so here's **[a template predictions list](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1A5yUKqnpToDLDrPRufhZEYgOuM4v8fKStmZLNeUHj10/copy?usp=sharing)** for you (you'll be prompted to make a copy of the Google Sheet).

The items on the template list were assembled by me and [jayterwahl](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/jayterwahl) after looking at [current Good Judgment Open Challenges](https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/), some LW forecasting threads ([2020s](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uYMy2vvJtsxQ4Fdow/2020-s-prediction-thread), [existential risk](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6x9rJbx9bmGsxXWEj/forecasting-thread-existential-risk-1)), the post on [throwing a prediction party](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cTEoHcP8G47FyR6Qh/throw-a-prediction-party-with-your-ea-rationality-group), and previous predictions from SlateStarCodex ([2020](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/29/predictions-for-2020/), [2019](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/25/predictions-for-2019/)) and Zachary Jacobi ([2019](https://socratic-form-microscopy.com/2019/01/06/2019-predictions/), [2018](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ijwJnK9fCKqQWRhLL/my-predictions-for-2018-and-a-template-for-yours)).

## My predictions

To avoid being [anchored](https://www.lesswrong.com/lw/j7/anchoring_and_adjustment/), you may want to use [the template](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1A5yUKqnpToDLDrPRufhZEYgOuM4v8fKStmZLNeUHj10/edit?usp=sharing) and make your own predictions before reading on. My previous attempts at predictions have also been _much_ less accurate than SlateStarCodex or Zachary Jacobi's, so don't update too much regardless.

All predictions are for the end of 2021 unless otherwise specified.

### COVID
1. On March 1 2021, >15 US states have an overall COVID positivity rate of >10% — 70%
2. Fewer than 1 million US COVID deaths  — 80%
3. US has the highest official COVID death toll of any country — 80%
4. Before March 31, 2021, 4 or more COVID vaccines approved by the US FDA  — 70%
5. Before March 31, 2021, 6 or more COVID vaccines approved by the US FDA  — 70%
6. SF Bay Area will be shut down in some major form (eg restaurants closed for indoor dining) beyond June 15  — 70%
7. …until the end of the year  — 51%
8. New COVID strain leads to dramatically worse situation (50K+ US deaths, much more extreme lockdowns)  — 80%
9. On April 1 2021, between 2.5 million and 5 million cases of COVID-19 declared by Africa CDC  — 80%
10. On April 30 2021, more than 6 countries have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19  — 90%
11. More than 10 countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19  — 70%
12. More than 3 million global COVID deaths  — 70%
13. Fewer than 10 million global COVID deaths  — 70%
14. Before June 1 2021, Canada permits discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from USA  — 60%
15. Before June 1 2021, UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that percentage of working adults who “worked from home exclusively” fell below 20% — 51%
16. Before May 1 2021, Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics have not been officially cancelled  — 70%
17. I will get the COVID vaccine — 70%
18. I personally will not get COVID (as per my best guess if I had it; positive test not needed)  — 80%
19. I personally am back to working not-at-home (i.e. regularly working in an office, co-working space or other public spaces) — 60%

### Politics
1. Joe Biden becomes (and remains) President of USA — 90%
2. Jair Bolsonaro is still President of Brazil — 90%
3. Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister of the UK — 90%
4. Netanyahu is no longer Prime Minister of Israel — 60%
5. Liberal party of Canada remains in power as a minority government — 90%
6. An election is held for Canada’s parliament — 60%
7. On May 12 2021, Ethiopia’s Tigray region still under federally-imposed state of emergency — 80%
8. Before March 1 2021, China has not declared an air-defense identification zone over any part of the South China Sea — 90%
9. No war (i.e. ongoing military engagement) between major or nuclear powers (including India and Pakistan) — 80%
10. Yemen Civil War continues — 90%
11. New nuclear non-proliferation treaty between USA and Russia is in negotiations and seems plausible — 51%
12. New nuclear deal between USA and Iran is in negotiations and seems plausible — 60%

### Economics & technology
1. No global economic collapse  — 90%
2. No major stock market crash — 90%
3. IMF estimate for world GDP growth in 2021 will be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report than in its October 2020 report  — 70%
4. OPEC+ will adjust production upward in its next meeting — 80%
5. China’s year-on-year GDP growth for Q2 2021 will be above 6%  — 60%
6. Tesla delivers >250,000 vehicles to customers in the first half of 2021 — 70%
7. Bitcoin is above $30,000 at the end of 2021 — 60%
8. Decent AR glasses (lens projection) are not released — 90%
9. No human is living on another terrestrial object (moon, Mars, etc.) — 90%
10. China’s robot girlfriend, Xiaoice, has 750,000,000 unique users — 60%
11. Synthetic horseshoe crab blood is approved for use outside of Europe  — 90%
12. DeepMind releases Alpha[X], an algorithm which beats previous human efforts in a novel domain — 80%
13. Cultivated meat served publicly (e.g. available in a restaurant) outside of Singapore — 51%

### Miscellaneous
1. Atmospheric carbon is above 415 by the end of 2021 — 70%
2. CO2 emissions in 2021 are up compared to 2020, but down compared to 2019 — 60%
3. US unemployment rate falls below 5% — 70%
4. More than 12 people die in protests or political violence in the USA — 80%
5. Fewer than 100 people die in protests or political violence in the USA — 90%
6. No terrorist attack kills more than 10 people in USA — 80%
7. Edward Snowden remains in exile in Russia — 70%
8. No resolution to Julian Assange situation — 60%
9. Deaths from opioid poisonings in Canada are down compared to 2020, but up compared to 2019 — 70%

### Personal
1. I will not switch jobs. — 90%
2. I will make more than $500 in a way that is different from my primary job or investments. — 70%
3. I will not get a tattoo — 60%
4. I will go to another continent — 70%
5. I will go on at least 3 dates (with three new people, one new person three times, or some combination therein) — 80%
6. I begin a new biology or biohacking project  — 51%
7. I do not find at least one new supplement I take or expect to take regularly x 3 months  — 80%
8. I travel outside the country at least once — 80%
9. [redacted] — 70%
10. [redacted] — 90%
11. [redacted] — 60%
12. [redacted] — 80%
13. [redacted] — 70%
14. [redacted] — 90%
15. [redacted] — 70%
16. [redacted] — 70%
17. [redacted] — 90%
18. [redacted] — 60%
19. [redacted] — 51%
20. [redacted] — 51%