# To be well-calibrated is to be punctual

To be well-calibrated is to be able to predict the world with appropriate confidence. We know that calibration can be improved through practice. Accurate calibration of our beliefs and expectations is a foundational element of epistemic rationality.

[Others](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dvYeSKDRd68GcrWoe/ten-commandments-for-aspiring-superforecasters) have written in detail how to approach life with a Superforecaster mentality. 

I suggest a more modest practice: Always be punctual.

You likely have many distinct opportunities to be on time almost every day. Each of these opportunities to be on time is an opportunity to make predictions:

How long will it take me to...

*   get showered and dressed?
*   drive to the parking lot?
*   walk from the parking lot to the meeting location?
*   prepare the slides?
*   complete errand X on the way to the meeting?
*   get the kids ready to go out the door?

If you have never really made it a priority to be punctual, you will likely learn many things very quickly. First of all, your basic estimates of timing are likely textbook Planning Fallacy examples, in the sense that they are all best-case scenario estimates with no allowance for traffic, computer trouble, bad directions, child tantrums, or slow elevators. Gradually, in your attempts to be predictably punctual, you will learn to predict more and more of the mundane details of the world around you. You will not only get an increasingly accurate sense of how long it takes to do tasks or to drive between places, but you'll even gain a sense of the traffic patterns in your locale, and as you extend this practice over years, perhaps even the best times of day to book plane flights to avoid long lines.

The feedback loop is immediate and unambiguous. You predicted 8:55 arrival; you arrived at 9:13. No ambiguity, no wiggle room, no 'well it depends how you define it.' This is unusually clean epistemic feedback.

Every time you confidently predict that you'll be on time, and then you're late, you have an opportunity for a calibration update. In fact, after you've been doing this for a while, you can even glean an update from being too early!

**Coda, and Possible Infohazard for Chronically Late People**
-------------------------------------------------------------

There are other good reasons to try to never be late. 

Being late is one of those psychological things that is always annoying when *other people* do it, but somehow it's okay when you do it, because you have *reasons*. It's a sort of Reverse Fundamental Attribution Error. 

If you pause and reflect on this, you will realize that it is in fact not okay when you do it at all, and you would be annoyed if someone did this to you. Lateness communicates disrespect for others, and also personal disorganization. Being *chronically* late reflects very poorly on you and makes everyone respect you less. 

If you find that you are chronically late, and everyone else you know is also chronically late, you should consider that this is because your own persistent disrespect for their time has trained them to expect you to be late. This may not be them communicating that they are okay with your behavior, but that they have simply factored it in when dealing with you.

"What's the big deal? It's just a couple of minutes!" Exactly. Being 5 minutes early costs you almost nothing (read your phone). Being 5 minutes late costs social capital. Calibration training here teaches you to weight outcomes by their consequences, not just their probabilities.

If you find yourself in this position, there is a silver lining: you have a lot of work to do to repair your reputation, but also, if you reverse this behavior today, you can transform your life and the way others see you very quickly and cheaply, relative to most other available actions. And doing so is consonant with a rationalist practice you should probably be doing anyway.