# [MLSN #6]: Transparency survey, provable robustness, ML models that predict the future

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Welcome to the 6th issue of the ML Safety Newsletter. In this edition, we cover:

*   A **review of** **transparency research** and future research directions
*   A **large** **improvement to certified robustness**
*   **“Goal misgeneralization”** examples and discussion
*   A benchmark for assessing how well **neural networks predict world events** (geopolitical, industrial, epidemiological, etc.)
*   Surveys that track **what the ML community thinks about AI risks**
*   **$500,000** in prizes for new benchmarks
*   And much more…

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**Monitoring**
==============

### **Transparency Survey**

[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F758adc0c-a2ea-49fc-8ab0-413171db9634_2462x1598.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F758adc0c-a2ea-49fc-8ab0-413171db9634_2462x1598.png)

*A taxonomy of transparency methods. Methods are organized according to what part of the model they help to explain (weights, neurons, subnetworks, or latent representations). They can be intrinsic (implemented during training), post hoc (implemented after training), or can rely on a mix of intrinsic and post hoc techniques. ‘Hazards’ (in orange) are phenomena that make any of these techniques more difficult.*

This survey provides an overview of transparency methods: what’s going on inside of ML models? It also discusses future directions, including:

**Detecting deception and eliciting latent knowledge.** Language models are dishonest when they babble common misconceptions like “bats are blind” despite knowing that this is false. Transparency methods could potentially indicate what the model ‘knows to be true’ and provide a cheaper and more reliable method for detecting dishonest outputs.

**Developing rigorous benchmarks.** These benchmarks should ideally measure the extent to which transparency methods provide actionable insights. For example, if a human implants a flaw in a model, can interpretability methods reliably identify it?

**Discovering novel behaviors.** An ambitious goal of transparency tools is to uncover why  a model behaves the way it does on a set of inputs. More feasibly, transparency tools could help researchers identify failures that would be difficult to otherwise anticipate.

[**\[Link\]**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.13243)

**Other Monitoring News**

**\[**[**Link**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.07682)**\]** This paper discusses the sudden emergence of capabilities in large language models. This unpredictability is naturally a safety concern, especially when many of these capabilities could be hazardous or discovered after deployment. It will be difficult to make models safe if we do not know what they are capable of.  
 

[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8727294d-397a-42c9-aaf5-3511e1aaa45b_1456x1014.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8727294d-397a-42c9-aaf5-3511e1aaa45b_1456x1014.png)

**\[**[**Link**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.08799)**\]** This work attributes emergent capabilities to “hidden progress” rather than random discovery.

**\[**[**Link**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.13498)**\]** Current transparency techniques (e.g., feature visualization) generally fail to distinguish the inputs that induce anomalous behavior

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**Robustness**
==============

### **Mathematical Guarantees of Model Performance**

[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa846511b-f7d8-45bb-bd29-c9135181f0c1_1600x365.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa846511b-f7d8-45bb-bd29-c9135181f0c1_1600x365.png)

*The current state-of-the-art method for certified robustness (denoised smoothing) combines randomized smoothing with a diffusion model for denoising. In randomized smoothing, an input is perturbed many times and the most commonly assigned label is selected as the final answer, which guarantees a level robust accuracy within a certain perturbation radius. To improve this method, the perturbed inputs are denoised with a diffusion model after the perturbation step so that they can be more easily classified (from* [*Salman et al*](https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2020/file/f9fd2624beefbc7808e4e405d73f57ab-Paper.pdf)*.)*

A central concern in the robustness literature is that empirical evaluations may not give performance guarantees. Sometimes the test set will not find important faults in a model, and some think empirical evidence is insufficient for having high confidence. However, robustness certificates enable definitive claims for how a model will behave in some classes of situations.

In this paper, Carlini et al. recently improved ImageNet certified robustness by 14 percentage points by simply using a higher-performing diffusion model and classifier for denoised smoothing (the method described in the image above).

**\[**[**Link**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.10550.pdf)**\]**

**Other Robustness News**

**\[**[**Link**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04137)**\]** An adversarial defense method for text based on automatic input cleaning.

**\[**[**Link**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.08555.pdf)**\]** A text classification attack benchmark that includes 12 different types of attacks.

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**Alignment**
=============

### **Goal Misgeneralization:** Why Correct Specifications Aren’t Enough For Correct Goals

[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73369657-b35b-4fd5-a2b9-36722fe43a1e_1294x1291.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73369657-b35b-4fd5-a2b9-36722fe43a1e_1294x1291.png)

Alignment research is often concerned with *specification:* how can we design objectives that capture human values (e.g., intrinsic goods such as wellbeing)? For example, if a chatbot is trained to maximize engagement (a proxy for entertaining experiences), it might find that the best way to do this is to show users clickbait. Ideally, the training signal should incorporate everything the designers care about, such as moral concerns (give users the right impression/honesty, give users content that helps them develop their skills, etc.).

The authors of this paper argue that even correctly specifying the goal is not sufficient for beneficial behavior. They provide several examples of environments where AI agents learn the wrong goals even when the desired behavior is correctly specified. These goals result in reasonable performance in the training environment, but poor or even harmful results under distribution shift.

The authors draw a distinction between “goal misgeneralization” errors and “capability misgeneralization,” where an agent ‘breaks’ or otherwise doesn’t behave competently. They argue that goal misgeneralization is a greater source of concern because more capable agents can have a greater impact on their environment: actively executing the wrong goal matters while passive failures do not. A way to separate between goal misgeneralization and capabilities misgeneralization would be exciting if work on goal misgeneralization could improve alignment without capabilities externalities.

However, this distinction might be eroded in the future. Right now, agents ‘break’ and ‘get stuck’ and ‘behave randomly.’ These are very clearly capability failures. But agents in the future aren’t likely to make these mistakes. A robot might fall over, but it will get back up and continue on course towards its objective. Basic agents in the future would have basic “recovery routines” that help them stay on course. Such routines could erode the distinction between “passive” deep learning misgeneralizations and “active” goal misgeneralizations. One can construct a broad class of goal misgeneralizations simply from deep learning capabilities misgeneralizations. Imagine a sequential decision making agent using a deep network to understand its goal. The misgeneralization in the deep network would cause the model to pursue the wrong goal, exhibiting goal misgeneralization (assuming it has some recovery routines that help it not get stuck). Consequently deep learning representation faults could be given momentum, amplified, and made impactful by recovery routines in sequential decision making agents.

How should “goal misgeneralization” be distinguished from “capabilities misgeneralization?” for these more capable systems? It might be helpful to check whether they can be distinguished for humans. Albert Einstein described his involvement in the Manhattan project as the greatest mistake of his life. One way to interpret Einstein’s error is to say that he had the wrong goal (to build nuclear weapons). Another interpretation is that he actually had a correct goal (to benefit humanity) but failed to predict the suffering his work would cause, which was an error in capability. If an AI system made a similar mistake, would it be interpreted as “goal misgeneralization” or “capabilities misgeneralization”?

The distinction may not be very meaningful for more capable systems, or the distinction needs to be clearer. If this distinction is not made more clear, work that aims to prevent goal misgeneralization errors may serve to further capabilities by reducing misgeneralization broadly. Instead, the safety community may want to focus on addressing specific forms of misgeneralization so as not to increase general capabilities. For instance, one might work on improving the robustness of human value models to unforeseen circumstances or optimizers. Alternatively, one might look for effective ways to incorporate uncertainty into sequential decision-making systems, so that they act more conservatively and do not aggressively pursue the wrong goal. As currently instantiated, the current formulation of goal misgeneralization may be too broad.

**\[**[**Link**](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2210.01790.pdf)**\]**

**Other Alignment News**

**\[**[**Link\]**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00731.pdf) A philosophical discussion about what it means for conversational agents to be ‘aligned.’

**\[**[**Link**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.13353)**\]** This report examines a commonplace argument underlying concern about existential risks from misaligned advanced AI.

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**Systemic Safety**
===================

### **Forecasting Future World Events with Neural Networks**

We care about improving decision-making among political leaders to reduce the chance of rash or possibly catastrophic decisions. These decision-making systems could be used in high-stakes situations where decision makers do not have much foresight, where passions are inflamed, and decisions must be made extremely quickly, perhaps based on gut reactions. Under these conditions, humans are liable to make egregious errors. Historically, the closest we have come to a global catastrophe has been in these situations, including the Cuban Missile Crisis. Work on epistemic improvement technologies could reduce the prevalence of perilous situations. Separately, they could reduce the risks from highly persuasive AI. Moreover, it helps leaders more prudently wield the immense power that future technology will provide. As Carl Sagan reminds us, “If we continue to accumulate only power and not wisdom, we will surely destroy ourselves.” (motivation taken from [this paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.05862))

This paper creates the Autocast benchmark to see how well ML systems can forecast events. An example question in the dataset is as follows: “Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine by 2023?” Autocast also includes a corpus of news articles organized by date to faithfully simulate the conditions under which humans make forecasts.

The paper establishes a baseline that is far below the performance of human experts: 65% accuracy vs. 92% for human experts on binary questions (random would be 50%). This indicates that there is much room for improvement on this task.

Separately, there is a [$625,000 prize pool](https://forecasting.mlsafety.org) for researchers working on this problem.

**\[**[**Link**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.15474)**\]**

**Other Systemic Safety News**

**\[**[**Link**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.07049)**\]** A self-supervised method for detecting malware using a ViT achieves state-of-the-art 97% binary accuracy.

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**Other News**
==============

**A survey finds that 36% of the NLP community at least weakly agree with the statement “AI decisions could cause a nuclear-level catastrophe”**

[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54cf7c42-872f-4d30-ad86-ceb6d4bcbfe8_1600x709.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54cf7c42-872f-4d30-ad86-ceb6d4bcbfe8_1600x709.png)

*The percentages in green indicate researcher opinions and the black bolded numbers indicate their perception of the community’s view.*

**\[**[**Link**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.12852)**\]**

**Another survey: AI researchers give a 5% median probability of ‘extremely bad’ outcomes (e.g., extinction) from advanced AI**

Many respondents were substantially more concerned: 48% of respondents gave at least 10% chance of an extremely bad outcome. Yet some are much less concerned: 25% said such outcomes are virtually impossible (0%).

**\[**[**Link**](https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/#General_safety)**\]**

**The Center for AI Safety is hiring research engineers.**

The Center for AI Safety is a nonprofit devoted to technical research and the promotion of safety in the broader machine learning community. Research engineers at the Center pursue a variety of research projects in areas such as Trojans, Adversarial Robustness, Power Aversion, and so on.

[**\[Link\]**](https://jobs.lever.co/aisafety/116247a4-2940-4dce-b7d5-a6190328fd4e)

**Call for benchmarks! Prizes for promising ML Safety benchmark ideas**

As David Patterson observed, “For better or for worse, benchmarks shape a field.” We are looking for benchmark ideas that have the potential to push ML Safety research in new and impactful directions in the coming years. We will award $50,000 for good ideas and $100,000 for outstanding ideas, with a total prize pool of **$500,000**. For especially promising proposals, we may offer funding for data collection and engineering expertise so that teams can build their benchmark. The competition is open until August 31st, 2023.

**\[**[**Link**](https://benchmarking.mlsafety.org/)**\]**