# Scott Alexander 2021 predictions: calibration and updating exercise

Scott Alexander makes yearly predictions on SSC/ACX. This year, I avoided looking at his [blog post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021) so I could make my own unanchored predictions about the same topics, using [a copy of the post with Scott's probabilities removed](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xiEOvkjvKUnbOA4hWZ18zvgOz6pn3Cz24uXSvS3g5Vk/edit). Then I looked at his and others' numbers, to see how much they update me.

For each question...

*   Bullet #1 is my initial Apr. 27 guess, based on about 20-120 seconds of googling and/or thinking.
*   Bullet #2 is my revised prediction after talking to my boyfriend and seeing their unanchored predictions.
*   Bullet #3 is my revised prediction after seeing Scott's probabilities (**SA**).
*   Bullet #4 is my revised Apr. 29 prediction after seeing [Zvi Mowshowitz's arguments and probabilities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cpy23aBzx3hnjKbnt/scott-alexander-2021-predictions-buy-sell-hold) (**ZM**) and [market prices collected and interpreted by SimonM](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sAmkpdmfDMCohXiBX/scott-alexander-2021-predictions-market-prices) (**MS**).

My numbers were influenced a lot by the fact that I expect to round to the nearest 10% (or to 1% / 5% / 95% / 99% at the extremes) to check calibration.

US/WORLD
--------

**1\. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%:** \[SA 80, ZM 80, MS 61\]

*   *Initial*: 73%
*   *Post-Boyfriend*: 73%
*   *Post-Scott*: 75%
*   *Final*: 75%

**2\. Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don't have to be appointed by end of year):** \[SA 5, ZM 5, MS ~4-5+\]

*   5%
*   7%
*   4%
*   4%

**3\. Yang is New York mayor:** \[SA 80, ZM 70, SM 69-77\]

*   85%
*   85%
*   82%
*   74%

**4\. Newsom recalled as CA governor:** \[SA 5, ZM ?, MS ~7\]

*   4%
*   6%
*   4%
*   10%

**5\. At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year:** \[SA 30, ZM ≤20\]

*   45%
*   45%
*   30%
*   19%

**6\. Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket):** \[SA 20, ZM 20\]

*   40%
*   40%
*   20%
*   23%

**7\. Trump is allowed back on Twitter:** \[SA 20, ZM 10\]

*   7%
*   8%
*   13%
*   12%

**8\. Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule:** \[SA 70, ZM 80, MS 75\]

*   66%
*   66%
*   66%
*   74%

**9\. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war:** \[SA 20, ZM ≤15, MS ~16\]

*   6%
*   6%
*   20%
*   14%

**10\. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict:** \[SA 5, ZM 5-~15\]

*   3%
*   3%
*   3%
*   11%

**11\. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict:** \[SA 5, ZM 3\]

*   2%
*   2%
*   2%
*   2%

**12\. Netanyahu is still Israeli PM:** \[SA 40, ZM 30, MS 22\]

*   86%
*   86%
*   40%
*   35%

**13\. Prospera has at least 1000 residents:** \[SA 30, ZM 30\]

*   13%
*   15%
*   24%
*   21%

ECON/TECH
---------

**14\. Gamestop stock price still above $100:** \[SA 50, ZM 50, MS 60\]

*   39%
*   39%
*   50%
*   59%

**15\. Bitcoin above 100K:** \[SA 40, ZM 25, MS 25\]

*   20%
*   20%
*   36%
*   18%

**16\. Ethereum above 5K:** \[SA 50, ZM 30, MS 11\]

*   20%
*   20%
*   40%
*   19%

**17\. Ethereum above 0.05 BTC:** \[SA 70, ZM 55, MS ~33\]

*   50%
*   50%
*   65%
*   50%

**18\. Dow above 35K:** \[SA 90, ZM<<90, MS 50\]

*   77%
*   77%
*   90%
*   50%

**19\. ...above 37.5K:** \[SA 70, ZM ?, MS 20\]

*   48%
*   48%
*   70%
*   20%

**20\. Unemployment above 5%:** \[SA 40, ZM 50, MS 37\]

*   74%
*   74%
*   55%
*   55%

**21\. Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked:** \[SA 20, ZM 30\]

*   18%
*   20%
*   20%
*   23%

**22\. Starship reaches orbit:** \[SA 60, ZM 60, MS 50\]

*   42%
*   45%
*   60%
*   57%

COVID
-----

**23\. Fewer than 10K daily average official COVID cases in US in December 2021:** \[SA 30, ZM 70\]

*   48%
*   48%
*   32%
*   52%

**24\. Fewer than 50K daily average COVID cases worldwide in December 2021:** \[SA 1, ZM 1\]

*   8%
*   8%
*   0.8%
*   3%

**25\. Greater than 66% of US population vaccinated against COVID:** \[SA 50, ZM 60, MS ~77+\]

*   69%
*   69%
*   59%
*   59%

**26\. India's official case count is higher than US:** \[SA 50, ZM ≥80\]

*   70%
*   70%
*   55%
*   75%

**27\. Vitamin D is** \[not\] **generally recognized (eg NICE, UpToDate) as effective COVID treatment:** \[SA 70, ZM 50 (*but mistook SA as 30*), MS ~75-85\]

*   93%
*   93%
*   81%
*   81%

**28\. Something else not currently used becomes first-line treatment for COVID:** \[SA 40, ZM 25\]

*   29%
*   36%
*   40%
*   40%

**29\. Some new variant not currently known is greater than 25% of cases:** \[SA 50, ZM 60\]

*   35%
*   42%
*   44%
*   52%

**30\. Some new variant where no existing vaccine is more than 50% effective:** \[SA 40, ZM ≤25\]

*   8%
*   10%
*   27%
*   17%

**31\. US approves AstraZeneca vaccine:** \[SA 20, ZM 20, MS 37\]

*   68%
*   65%
*   20%
*   20%

**32\. Most people I see in the local grocery store aren't wearing a mask:** \[SA 60, ZM 75\]

*   53%
*   53%
*   60%
*   69%

COMMUNITY
---------

**33\. Major rationalist org leaves Bay Area:** \[SA 60, ZM ?\]

*   91%
*   91%
*   89%
*   89%

**34-37. \[redacted\]** \[\]

**38\. No new residents at our housing cluster:** \[SA 40, ZM 35\]

*   20%
*   20%
*   40%
*   37%

**39\. No current residents leave our housing cluster:** \[SA 60, ZM 65\]

*   48%
*   48%
*   60%
*   56%

**40-52. \[redacted\]** \[\]

**53\. At least seven days my house is orange or worse on PurpleAir.com because of fires:** \[SA 80, ZM 80\]

*   53%
*   55%
*   80%
*   80%

PERSONAL
--------

**54-59. \[redacted\]** \[\]

**60\. There are no appraisal-related complications to the new house purchase:** \[SA 50, ZM 60\]

*   30%
*   40%
*   50%
*   60%

**61\. I live in the new house:** \[SA 95, ZM 90\]

*   82%
*   82%
*   93%
*   92%

**62\. I live in the top bedroom:** \[SA 60, ZM 65\]

*   67%
*   67%
*   58%
*   65%

**63\. I can hear / get annoyed by neighbor TV noise:** \[SA 40, ZM 30\]

*   58%
*   58%
*   40%
*   37%

**64\. I'm playing in a D&D campaign:** \[SA 70, ZM 70\]

*   20%
*   20%
*   70%
*   68%

**65\. I go on at least one international trip:** \[SA 60, ZM 60\]

*   26%
*   26%
*   60%
*   57%

**66\. I spend at least a month living somewhere other than the Bay:** \[SA 50, ZM 50\]

*   17%
*   17%
*   50%
*   50%

**67\. I continue my current exercise routine (and get through an entire cycle of it) in Q4 2021:** \[SA 70, ZM 65\]

*   17%
*   15%
*   63%
*   60%

**68\. I meditate at least 15 days in Q4 2021:** \[SA 60, ZM 60\]

*   15%
*   15%
*   60%
*   59%

**69\. I take oroxylum at least 5 times in Q4 2021:** \[SA 40, ZM 40\]

*   20%
*   20%
*   38%
*   38%

**70\. I take some substance I haven't discovered yet at least 5 times in Q4 2021 (testing exempted):** \[SA 30, ZM 25\]

*   31%
*   31%
*   30%
*   24%

**71\. I do at least six new biohacking experiments in the next eight months:** \[SA 40, ZM 40\]

*   36%
*   36%
*   36%
*   38%

**72\. \[redacted\]** \[\]

**73\. The Twitter account I check most frequently isn't one of the five I check frequently now:** \[SA 20, ZM 15\]

*   48%
*   48%
*   20%
*   24%

**74\. I make/retweet at least 25 tweets between now and 2022:** \[SA 70, ZM 75\]

*   60%
*   60%
*   70%
*   70%

WORK
----

**75\. Lorien has 100+ patients:** \[SA 90, ZM 85\]

*   58%
*   58%
*   90%
*   87%

**76\. 150+ patients:** \[SA 20, ZM 25\]

*   45%
*   45%
*   20%
*   21%

**77\. 200+ patients:** \[SA 5, ZM 5-10\]

*   38%
*   37%
*   9%
*   8%

**78\. I've written at least ten more Lorien writeups (so total at least 27):** \[SA 30, ZM 30\]

*   43%
*   43%
*   24%
*   24%

**79-83. \[redacted\]** \[\]

**84\. I have switched medical records systems:** \[SA 20, ZM 15\]

*   46%
*   50%
*   20%
*   20%

**85\. I have changed my pricing scheme:** \[SA 20, ZM 20\]

*   28%
*   34%
*   20%
*   20%

BLOG
----

**86\. ACX is earning more money than it is right now:** \[SA 70, ZM 80\]

*   65%
*   65%
*   70%
*   72%

**87-89. \[redacted\]** \[\]

**90\. There is another article primarily about SSC/ACX/me in a major news source:** \[SA 10, ZM 25\]

*   75%
*   71%
*   23%
*   23%

**91\. I subscribe to at least 5 new Substacks (so total of 8):** \[SA 20, ZM 30\]

*   13%
*   18%
*   20%
*   20%

**92\. I've read and reviewed** ***How Asia Works*****:** \[SA 90, ZM 90\]

*   50%
*   53%
*   88%
*   88%

**93\. I've read and reviewed** ***Nixonland*****:** \[SA 70, ZM 70\]

*   45%
*   56%
*   65%
*   66%

**94\. I've read and reviewed** ***Scout Mindset*****:** \[SA 60, ZM 70\]

*   59%
*   60%
*   60%
*   63%

**95\. I've read and reviewed at least two more dictator books:** \[SA 50, ZM 45\]

*   42%
*   42%
*   42%
*   42%

**96\. I've started and am at least 25% of the way through the formal editing process for** ***Unsong*****:** \[SA 30, ZM 30\]

*   60%
*   63%
*   30%
*   29%

**97\.** ***Unsong*** **is published:** \[SA 10, ZM 10\]

*   15%
*   42%
*   14%
*   14%

**98\. I've written at least five chapters of some non-*****Unsong*** **book I hope to publish:** \[SA 40\]

*   41%
*   39%
*   40%
*   40%

**99\. \[redacted\] wins the book review contest:** \[SA 60, ZM 50\]

*   8%
*   8%
*   52%
*   48%

**100\. I run an ACX reader survey:** \[SA 50, ZM 50\]

*   55%
*   53%
*   48%
*   48%

**101\. I run a normal ACX survey (must start, but not necessarily finish, before end of year):** \[SA 90, ZM 90\]

*   65%
*   65%
*   86%
*   84%

**102\. By end of year, some other post beats** ***NYT*** **commentary for my most popular post:** \[SA 10, ZM 10\]

*   65%
*   65%
*   13%
*   14%

**103\. I finish and post the culture wars essay I'm working on:** \[SA 90, ZM 90\]

*   38%
*   40%
*   85%
*   85%

**104\. I finish and post the climate change essay I'm working on:** \[SA 80, ZM 80\]

*   46%
*   47%
*   80%
*   80%

**105\. I finish and post the CO~2~ essay I'm working on:** \[SA 80, ZM 80\]

*   49%
*   52%
*   80%
*   80%

**106\. I have a queue of fewer than ten extra posts:** \[SA 70, ZM 60\]

*   57%
*   57%
*   70%
*   60%

META
----

**107\. I double my current amount of money ($1000) on PredictIt:** \[SA 10, ZM 15\]

*   49%
*   49%
*   10%
*   22%

**108\. I post my scores on these predictions before 3/1/22:** \[SA 70, ZM 75\]

*   54%
*   54%
*   63%
*   64%