# Don't Look Up (Film Review)

On my [uni group's](https://campusgroups.rit.edu/effalt/about/) Discord, we have a running joke: "If the world ended tomorrow, it'd be out of the news cycle in a week". Adam McKay's *Don't Look Up* takes this joke completely literally, and the results are actually pretty funny.

## The really quick version

The guy who directed *The Big Short* and *Vice* has just released a big-budget, star-studded Netflix movie about extinction risk, and it's a good movie, probably. Go watch it. Unless you hated *The Big Short* / Adam McKay's filmmaking style, then just substitute by reading this post.

Jennifer Lawrence plays an astronomer who discovers an ~~asteroid~~ comet headed for Earth. Everyone will die in about 6 months, unless somebody nukes the comet to make it go away.

Hilarity ensues because all the people in charge are clueless, narcissistic, frivolous, or all three. Literally "the world's ending, quick gotta take a selfie", the movie.

Much of this post will focus on ideas about extinction risk and how *DLU* introduces them. If you're concerned about spoilers, stop reading here, go watch the movie, and come back. *DLU* is kind of a "gateway drug" for understanding some of the key problems and concepts in [real-life extinction-stopping](https://80000hours.org/articles/how-to-reduce-existential-risk/).

```Spoilers for Don't Look Up ahead!```

## Ideas *DLU* uses, explained

### Extinction Risks (and handling them poorly)

That big idea of the movie, that *of course* humanity could bungle extinction-level threats, is relatable to those of us interested in [preventing those threats](https://80000hours.org/articles/existential-risks/). The movie especially comments on [the U.S. government's shitty response to COVID-19](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/covid-19).

Many steps in the COVID response are paralleled in the movie[^1]:

- Early coverage of COVID-19 was dismissive of the danger. Once the danger became obvious, news outlets changed their mind... and never apologized or reflected on their lack of concern. The same thing happen's with *DLU's* in-universe talk-show; the comet impact is initially framed as a quirky astronomy special-interest story.
  
- Something objective and easy to agree on (virus bad, comet impact bad) turns into a polarized political tribal marker. COVID split society into pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown, mostly based on what party you vote for. The title *Don't Look Up* references the conflict between those who see the comet's danger ("Just Look Up") and denialists ("Don't Look Up").
  
- Despite recent dangers, our response *still* didn't improve thanks to COVID. Big investments *aren't* going into pandemic preparedness, and many people are *still* skeptical about vaccines (or whether COVID even exists). And the poor handling of the vaccines may, in the long run, make *more* people distrust public health measures! At least in *Don't Look Up*, most people eventually come around to the truth. Only once the comet is to close to Earth to ignore it in the sky, do people get more united to stop the comet.
  

For some reason or other, our society has gotten really bad at responding to crises. Instead, humans (especially leaders and decision makers) get bogged down in politics, power games, status signals, and poor incentives. [Another LessWrong review](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/C4XRhxQoihXMtAaLS/movie-review-don-t-look-up#What_does_Don_t_Look_Up_do_for_us_) of *Don't Look Up* goes into more detail about this.

Almost *every* big threat facing life on Earth, is like this. The comet could be analogized to catastrophic climate change, or the danger of AI superintelligence, or global nuclear war. The only unrealistic part of the movie is where, eventually, the comet is close enough to see, and everyone finally agrees it's a threat...

> Corona was x-risk on easy mode: a risk (global influenza pandemic) warned of for many decades in advance, in highly specific detail, by respected & high-status people like Bill Gates, which was easy to understand with well-known historical precedents, fitting into standard human conceptions of risk, which could be planned & prepared for effectively at small expense, and whose absolute progress human by human could be recorded in real-time happening rather slowly over almost half a year while highly effective yet cheap countermeasures like travel bans & contact-tracing & hand-made masks could—and in some places did!—halt it.
> 
> Yet, most of the world failed badly this test; and many entities like the CDC or FDA in the USA perversely exacerbated it, interpreted it through an identity politics lenses in willful denial of reality, obstructed responses to preserve their fief or eek out trivial economic benefits, prioritized maintaining the status quo & respectability, lied to the public “don’t worry, it can’t happen! go back to sleep” when there was still time to do something, and so on.
> 
> If the worst-case AI x-risk happened, it would be hard for every reason that corona was easy. When we speak of “fast takeoffs”, I increasingly think we should clarify that apparently, a “fast takeoff” in terms of human coordination means any takeoff faster than ‘several decades’ will get inside our decision loops.
> 
> Don’t count on our institutions to save anyone: they can’t even save themselves.

(quote by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/07#linkshttps://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/07#links), paragraphed here for clarity.)

### Simulacra Levels

I don't know if Adam McKay's read Zvi's posts on [simulacra levels](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/06/15/simulacra-and-covid-19/), but the movie's probably one of the best at portraying them intuitively.

For those who don't know, "simulacra levels" are a quick gauge of how connected-to-real-life somebody is. One [comment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fEX7G2N7CtmZQ3eB5/simulacra-and-subjectivity?commentId=FgajiMrSpY9MxTS8b) explains it like this:

> Level 1: “There’s a lion across the river.” = There’s a lion across the river.
> 
> Level 2: “There’s a lion across the river.” = I don’t want to go (or have other people go) across the river.
> 
> Level 3: “There’s a lion across the river.” = I’m with the popular kids who are too cool to go across the river.
> 
> Level 4: “There’s a lion across the river.” = A firm stance against trans-river expansionism focus grouped well with undecided voters in my constituency.

Level 1 is represented by the scientists, Kate Dibiasky (Jennifer Lawrence) and Dr. Mindy (DiCaprio) and Dr. Oglethorpe (Rob Morgan). They just want humanity to know of the comet's true danger, and are shocked when the elite politicians and media don't give the issue respect.

Level 3 is represented by the media, including talk show hosts and Hollywood actors and the InfoWars conspiracy theorists that must show up in [every movie's news montages](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/CoincidentalBroadcast). They don't care a lot about what's happening in the real world, but they *do* want to show how on-the-team and clever they are. So some people believe the approaching comet is real, some think it's a government hoax, and some think it will create jobs due to asteroid mining. It doesn't matter what's true, what matters is how people talk about it.

Level 4 is represented by the political elites, especially President Orlean (Meryl Streep), who's basically a female Donald Trump[^2]. On Level 4, you're not looking at reality *or* trying to fit in with a tribe of like-minded people. You are basically a political animal, a robot doing stuff to get power and social status, with no care for morality or other people. Think "high-functioning [sociopaths](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychopathy) climb the ladder, so now the world's run mostly by sociopaths", and you get the gist.

### Elite Culture and Complacency

The movie definitely echoes some familiar writings about [soulless politicians](https://indiepf.com/michael-o-churchs-theory-of-3-class-ladders-in-america-archive/) and [unrelatable elites](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-modest-proposal-for-republicans). The elite-consensus-culture thing is best exemplified in a scene where DiCaprio's scientist character is dating a talk show host.

The host was born into a wealthy family, has multiple liberal arts degrees from elite universities, speaks multiple languages, and despises most of the common people. DiCaprio the scientist hails from a midwestern state, with a STEM degree from a different(?) midwestern state. This kinda parallels the ["two cultures"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Two_Cultures) and "[elites all go to the same schools](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x5M3F4feiFstCbaC7/above-the-narrative) and [think the same](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/09/the-world-forager-elite.html)" ideas that've bounced around here lately.

The entire upper class of society is portrayed as a [moral maze](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/05/30/quotes-from-moral-mazes/), where sociopathic schmoozers win and facts lose. Compare most university or office workplaces, contrast [1960s-era NASA](https://dominiccummings.files.wordpress.com/2017/02/201702-effective-action-2-systems-engineering-to-systems-politics.pdf) or [a Google datacenter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_data_centers). Without incentives tying a politician's poll numbers to the fate of humanity, the politician ignores the fate of humanity.

## As a movie...

This part's more word-dumpy and opinionated.

I've watched Adam McKay's [only two other movies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_McKay#Filmography), *The Big Short* and *Vice*, multiple times each. *Don't Look Up* is a progression of McKay's filmmaking on at least some axes. The serious and beautiful parts are more legitimately serious and beautiful. The fast-cut parts are faster and more elegant. Someday I will write a full review of *Vice*, and go into McKay's style in more depth, but *DLU* still has Le Funni McKay Wacky Moments (yes, even a freeze-frame on someone's face looking dumb, which happened several times in *Big Short* and only like 1-2 times in *Vice*). *DLU* is more comedic than *Vice*, but more dramatic than McKay's [earlier movies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_McKay#Filmography).

The things I look for in movies tend to be ideas I find interesting (because they're good), characters I relate to (usually for bad reasons), and interesting visual things happening (I have ADHD). So I like *Requiem for a Dream* and *Vice* for the characters, and *The LEGO Movie* and *The Holy Mountain* for the visuals. *DLU* was basically a retreading of ideas I've already heard of (see above), but had not seen in a full movie before. It's basically obligatory viewing if your Effective Altruist / X-risk movie night has too many [factory farming documentaries](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQRAfJyEsko) and you want to show something lighter.

If President Orlean is on Simulacra Level 4, and Kate is on Level 1, Dr. Mindy is a character oscillating between levels. Just as *Vice*'s Dick Cheney went from normal guy to power-hungry [adaptation executor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XPErvb8m9FapXCjhA/adaptation-executers-not-fitness-maximizers), Dr. Mindy goes from Level 1 scientist to Level 3 team player, back to hopeless Level 1 normal person.

The movie was pretty funny, but I must add three caveats. First, I read a lot of *Mad Magazine* from a compilation book as a kid. Secondly, I watched the movie with my parents, who are both Boomers. Third, the movie makes fun of social media a lot (though not as poorly as [that one scene in *Vice*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYDbT0BXlBA)). What I'm saying is, the movie might actually secretly be unfunny.

(Also Adam McKay's humor is very... [polarizing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vice_(2018_film)#Critical_response). Some people just really dislike his style, and that's not really something *DLU* can work around. If your friends hated *The Big Short*, don't show them *DLU*.)

An aspect of the movie that was self-defeating, was the mismatch between style and message.

What I mean is... look, there's a part where DiCaprio scientist is fed up with the talk show making light of everything. The host discusses the impending extinction of humanity with the same snarky tone as a celebrity breakup. DiCaprio scolds her, and society at large, for losing sight of the facts and retreating into social status games.

And yet the movie is... clever and smarmy and socialiteish. It has a cast of stars, it has Adam McKay's one-liners, it was [produced by the film industry](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/MostWritersAreWriters), it will probably get lots of Oscar nominations while polarizing audiences.

One of the morals of COVID, of extinction risks, of *Don't Look Up*, is that we need to listen *more* to [abrasive](https://putanumonit.com/2020/02/27/seeing-the-smoke/) unpopular nerds who [*don't* "read the room"](https://unherd.com/2021/05/dominic-cummings-cant-read-the-room/), and *less* to [clever journalists and public speakers](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/02/07/why-i-am-not-in-charge/), or else we will all die. And yet, the movie is clever and Adam McKay does not have a STEM degree. [Curious](https://knowyourmeme.com/photos/2074357-turning-point-usa).

As [another review](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/C4XRhxQoihXMtAaLS/movie-review-don-t-look-up#How_broken_is_Don_t_Look_Up_and_how_hard_is_it_to_fix__) of the movie notes, even *DLU's* portrayal of extinction risks was flawed. Real-life risks are usually caused by "coordination failures", those points where the elites' paycheck is disconnected from the world ending. To tell a story with clear villain characters, *DLU* blames the failure of the comet-destroying mission on a few key people, rather than the incentives/social structures that *made them behave that way*.

Weirdly, *The Big Short* handled this sort of thing well, when it explained the Wall Street bankers' incentives to sell risky mortgages. So McKay *can* do this well, he just... *didn't*?

One thing the movie did *uniquely* well: it didn't just cut away from Earth's destruction. It looked directly at it, showed all the impacts and ripples, all the stuff tearing apart, in a non-*2012* no-escape way. Most disaster movies have escape, most final-end movies barely show the end destruction, this movie subverted both.

## A couple more things I noticed

- When India et al.'s mission to destroy the comet fails because a thing blows up, I think it's supposed to be because America secretly bombed it. If true, this is a commentary on something or other.
  
- The "situation is extremely fluid" line was also in *Vice* when 9/11 happens. Not sure if that's just a callback or if U.S. military people use that exact term verbatim. (Yes, I know you can describe a situation that way, I'm asking if it's standard/institutional/codified parlance in the actual White House.)
  

[^1]: H/t [Devin](https://www.thinkingmuchbetter.com/authors/devin-kalish/) for laying out the stages better.

[^2]: With a dash of one or two Clintons, maybe.