# D&D.Sci Divination: Nine Black Doves

*This is an entry in the 'Dungeons & Data Science' series, a set of puzzles where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset. *

**STORY (skippable)**
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The omens are troubling for we Romans this year!  Black doves have been spotted circling above major cities in all three of the Empire's main provinces.  Not only that, news from abroad confirms that they have been seen across the world, from the wastes of Britannia in the West to the lush shores of Persia in the East.

There is confident general agreement that the black doves are a Very Bad Omen.  No two people quite agree on why, though.  Some say that they are emissaries of Pluto, sent out to escort the souls of the dead, and that their coming means Pluto must expect many to die.  Others say that the birds have foreseen Jupiter's displeasure, and are taking flight to escape it.  Captive philosophers from the Grecian territories say something about how they are the shadows on the walls of a cave cast from the true forms outside - but since the philosophers also say that we are all trapped in a cave at all times, no-one really takes them seriously.

You are a diviner in Rome.  Your unconventional data-driven approach to divination has not endeared you to the broader divination community, so business has been quite scarce.  However, two weeks ago, the main College of Divination in Rome was struck by lightning and burned down.  Few of the staff were actually harmed, but the broad view is that anyone who built their college somewhere it would get struck by lightning clearly isn't a very good diviner.  As such, when the recent ill omens arose, the Emperor approached you (as the best-known non-College diviner) to ask for advice on how best to weather this situation.  This could be your big break, and your chance to demonstrate the superiority of your school of Data-Driven Divination!

The Emperor has given you [the dataset](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/aphyer1992/dndsci-nineblackdoves/main/div_output.csv) gathered by years of Imperial diviners, which tracks the Omens that were recorded and the Disasters that happened in each year.  

The good news is that this dataset is extremely extensive (reaching back to the founding of the Imperial system of Divination, which they mark as Year 0 in their system) and comprehensive (Imperial surveyors gather an annual update on every interesting omen and disaster that happened in the past year, even in foreign countries).  

The bad news is that, rather than tracking the things your study of Data-Driven Divination has led you to think might be useful predictors (such as the total population of each region, or the value of goods and services produced therein), it tracks the things the existing diviners think are useful predictors, such as whether children have been born with an unusual number of heads.  You're...not actually sure these are good predictors of disaster?  Still, they're what you've got, so you might as well work with them.  

If you can do well, and impress the Emperor, you think you can convince him to adopt your school of Data-Driven Divination across the Empire, and usher in a new era of data-driven prosperity!

If you do badly...yeah, he'll probably have you executed.  So.  Uh.  No pressure.

**DATA & OBJECTIVES**
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The Emperor has allocated a budget of 60,000 denarii to mitigation efforts for the upcoming year (Year 1081) across the three provinces of the Roman Empire (Hispania, Italia and Grecia).  His administrators have devised the following strategies:

*   For 5,000 denarii, the priests in any one province can conduct a ritual entreating Vulcan to hold the Titans firmly in their prison beneath the earth.  This will reduce the risk of earthquakes in that province by 80% this year.
*   For 10,000 denarii, the priests in any one province can entreat the protection of Asclepius to ward off plague.  This will prevent all plague in that province this year.
*   For 10,000 denarii, the Emperor can invest in a fire protection service in any one province.  This will reduce the risk of fires in that province by 70% this year.
*   For 10,000 denarii, grain shipments can be made to any one province.  This will prevent all famines in that province this year.
*   For 10,000 denarii, the soldiers on our border with any one adversary (Britannia, Germania or Persia) can be reinforced.  This will halve the chance that we are pillaged by them this year.
    *   For a further 5,000 denarii (15,000 in total), the soldiers can also be equipped and encouraged to attack that adversary.  This will double the chance that we pillage them this year (along with reducing the chance that they pillage us).

He's given you a dataset of historical omens and disasters, and asked your advice on which options to take.  You've asked about what exactly your goals should be, and got the following answer:

*   Minimize the total number of disasters that take place in the Empire in the upcoming year (year 1081).
*   The dataset lists all omens and disasters that have happened in prior years, from Year 0 to Year 1080.  The people and the Emperor believe that 'black doves this year' implies 'many disasters incoming', but you're welcome to use the dataset however you wish. 
*   All disasters are equally bad: three fires and one outbreak of plague, or two famines and two pillagings, both count the same, as '4 total disasters'.
*   Successfully pillaging an enemy nation is exactly as good as a disaster is bad - it counts as -1 disasters to your score.
*   You can be completely confident that the interventions function as advertised - your goal is simply to figure out which interventions provide optimal protection.
*   You can buy an intervention multiple times pointed at different provinces/adversaries: for instance, you could spend 15,000 denarii for earthquake protection in all three  provinces.
*   You cannot buy the same intervention twice for the same province/adversary: for instance, you cannot spend 20,000 denarii for twice as much fire protection in one province.
*   Note that you do **not** have access to 'what omens happen in 1081' to predict 'what disasters happen in 1081'.  By the time the Imperial surveyors have gathered that information, 1081 will be over and the disasters will have already happened.  You will need to use omens from previous years (1080 and earlier) to predict what disasters will happen in 1081.

Based on [the dataset](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/aphyer1992/dndsci-nineblackdoves/main/div_output.csv), you need to advise the Emperor on how to spend his 60,000 denarii of budget. 

I'll aim to post the ruleset and results on May 16th (giving one week and both weekends for players).  If you find yourself wanting extra time, comment below and I can push this deadline back.

As usual, working together is allowed, but for the sake of anyone who wants to work alone, **please spoiler parts of your answers (type a '>' followed by a '!' at the start of a line to open a spoiler block) that contain information or questions about the dataset. **

Thank you to **abstractapplic**, who reviewed a draft of this scenario.  (For the avoidance of doubt, abstractapplic does not have inside information on the scenario, and is free to play it).