# SWE Automation Is Coming: Consider Selling Your Crypto

*\[legal status: not financial advice™\]*

### Most crypto is held by individuals[^g81aot232w]

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/fd8b14dccdb2ad1ef8d277d1508645904967ae1cc74f1c41.png)

### Individual crypto holders are disproportionately tech savvy, often programmers

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/c59cbfda269dfafb01b471cd3e9c1dbef86b478076cf5be2.png)

Source: Well known, just look around you.

### AI is starting to eat the software engineers market

Already entry level jobs, which doesn't matter for crypto markets that much.[^skl361noc3]

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/10b61ae58db15fbcc3b9c7c6ab79f1884d9ed55f1e952e52.png)

But judging by progress at other tasks AI climb the seniority ladder to where most crypto holders are within the next few years. [SWE Bench Verified](https://www.swebench.com/#verified) went from single digit %s to 64% in a year and a bit, and the METR evals are not looking hopeful for humanity's lead. Tech giants are doing increasing amounts of their work with AI.[^9eqpf1xevq]

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/d6474d65f609cb260a89025bdc86c67c3a4fcdc8e0932ffa.png)

Some of this effect is [across many industries](https://x.com/williamevanl/status/1889872986834084172), but software seems worst hit.

### Many hodlers who lose their job income will sell crypto to maintain lifestyle

Many hodlers have become accustomed to a non-frugal life on the backs of their well paying SWE jobs. If those go away, forced sell pressure is likely to collapse the market once their fiat runs out. If you need $50k to not lose your house, you're often going to sell crypto even if the market is down and it's a bad time. If lots of people do this, the market has a bad time. Could well be a few months or even a few years out, but my guess is it happens.

### This hasn't happened yet, we're still around an all time high[^k3333jky0j]

![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD3VnunXZu34m86e5f/images/f1216e66e39c8180810d0daec32e21be11f074204bc44ae5.png)

These dynamics might not kick in for another year or three, and the gap between "can automate high level software devs" and "can automate building the next generation of AI, which iterates a few times then kills everyone" might be small. But probably worth a little consideration.

### Counterpoint: National Bitcoin Reserve?

Could well happen, might be worth keeping a bit for upside and diversification. Generally advise not selling 100%, for expected regret minimization.

### Money where my mouth is

I sold almost all my remaining crypto recently. Might be worth keeping a small amount for utility and exposure to any crazy upswings, especially in coins that might be useful in the AI era (e.g. cheap fast micropayments via SOL), but I think it's time to mostly cash out our winnings overall.

*best of skill to y'all as we head into the singularity. consider trying to avoid dying with a unnecessarily large pile of unspent money which* [*could have shifted the needle*](https://www.aisafety.com/donation-guide)*.*

[^g81aot232w]: Others cryptos are a bit different, but the story is broadly similar in the relevant ways. 

[^skl361noc3]: but oh boy be sure to update your advice to people who are picking a career 

[^9eqpf1xevq]: e.g. Google: 25% of code written by AI, Amazon: 4500 years of dev time saved 

[^k3333jky0j]: ETH is a bit worse, but might be hit earlier as more programmer heavy?