# Decision Theory

*(A longer text-based version of this post is also available on MIRI's blog* [*here*](https://intelligence.org/2018/10/31/embedded-decisions/)*, and the bibliography for the whole sequence can be found* [*here*](https://intelligence.org/embedded-agency)*.)*

![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666711/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_01.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666712/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_02.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666712/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_03.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666714/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_04.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666714/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_05.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666714/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_06.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666714/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_07.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666714/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_08.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666715/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_09.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666716/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_10.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666716/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_11.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666717/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_12.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666716/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_13.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666717/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_14.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666717/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_15.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666719/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_16.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666719/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_17.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666719/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_18.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666720/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_19.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666720/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_20.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666720/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_21.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666722/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_22.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666722/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_23.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666722/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_24.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666723/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_25.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666723/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_26.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666723/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_27.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666723/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_28.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666723/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_29.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666723/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_30.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666711/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_31.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666710/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_32.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666711/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_33.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666711/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_34.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666711/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_35.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666711/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_36.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666711/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_37.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666711/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_38.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666711/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_39.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666712/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_40.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666712/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_41.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666712/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_42.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666712/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_43.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666712/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_44.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666712/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_45.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666713/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_46.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666713/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_47.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666713/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_48.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666713/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_49.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666713/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_50.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666713/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_51.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666714/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_52.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666714/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_53.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666714/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_54.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666714/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_55.png) ![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/q_auto/v1598666714/Embedded%20Agency%202/Embedded_Decision_Theory_-_Page_56.png)