# You Should Get a Reusable Mask

A pandemic that's substantially worse than COVID-19 is a serious possibility. If one happens, having a good mask could save your life. A high quality reusable mask is only [$30 to $60](https://www.jefftk.com/p/elastomeric-fitting-session), and I think it's well worth it to buy one for yourself. Worth it enough that I think you should order one now if you don't have one already.

But if you're not convinced, let's do some rough estimation.

COVID-19 killed about 0.2% of people ([20M](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2821%2902796-3/fulltext) of 8B). The 1918 flu killed more like 2.5% ([50M](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/pandemic-timeline-1918.htm) of 2B). Estimating from two data points is fraught, but this gives you perhaps a 0.02% annual chance of dying in a pandemic. Engineering [could make this much worse](https://www.jefftk.com/p/out-of-distribution-bioattacks), especially given [progress in AI](https://www.virologytest.ai/), but let's set that aside for now to make a more conservative case.

A reusable mask ("elastomeric respirator") would be really valuable to have, if things got really bad. Let's imagine they cut your risk of dying by half: the rated efficacy is [much higher](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/33t5jPzxEcFXLCPjq/the-four-pillars-a-hypothesis-for-countering-catastrophic) (99%+) but real-world use isn't perfect, especially over the months or years another pandemic could last.

A mask should last at least ten years if unused, and over that decade it would drop this conservative estimate of your risk of pandemic-induced death from 0.2% to 0.1%. If you, as the [US DoT does](https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis), value not dying at $14M, then this is worth $14k. Even if the benefit of a mask is **100x** lower than we estimated ($140), it's still worth it to buy one.

I like geeking out over masks and there are a [lot of options](https://www.jefftk.com/p/elastomeric-fitting-session). I have a bunch of models, and if you'd like to come try them sometime (next [EA Boston](https://www.eaboston.org/) meetup on 10/26?) I'd be happy to show you what they're like. But if you just want to pick one and be done with it, leaving it in a box that you more likely than not don't need to open, a time tested but somewhat garish option is the 3M 6200 mask in [Small](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B007JZ1NIM/) ($17), [Medium](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B007JZ1N00/) ($15), [Large](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B007JZ1MK6/) ($19) plus a set of [3M 2091 p100 filters](https://www.amazon.com/3M-2091-Particulate-Filter-Pairs/dp/B00KYX8JBU) ($7/pair):

[![](https://www.jefftk.com/3m-traditional-p100.png)](https://www.jefftk.com/3m-traditional-p100-big.png)

I'd also recommend buying one now instead of trying to notice when a pandemic is coming: buying now ensures you get one instead of scrambling when everyone else is competing over a supply that can't keep up, and everyone who [prepares ahead of time](https://www.jefftk.com/p/disasters) helps [reduce shortages](https://www.jefftk.com/p/hoarding-and-shortages) when a disaster comes.